USAGOLD Discussion

justamereBear

(05/01/2001; 23:08:25 MDT - Msg ID: 52918)

A bit long But here it is

Not availableLook at that whitewash go on!!!!!!

Top Financial News

05/01 22:08
Low U.S. Savings Is Biggest Challenge to Economy, Lindsey Says
By John Cranford, Al Yoon and Heather Bandur

New York, May 1 (Bloomberg) -- Declining savings by Americans is the biggest problem facing the U.S. economy and will take the rest of this decade to reverse, said Lawrence Lindsey, chief economic adviser to President George W. Bush.

``Last year, the private sector spent $700 billion more than it earned after taxes,'' equal to 7 percent of gross domestic product, Lindsey said in a speech to the annual convention of the Society of American Business Writers and Editors in New York.

With the private savings rate falling to a minus 1 percent in the first quarter, the lowest since the Great Depression, Americans are ``going to have to save more,'' he said. That can't happen suddenly, or the drop in spending might ``precipitate a recession,'' Lindsey said. ``The process is a decade-long challenge for us.''

Lindsey said he wasn't particularly concerned about falling stock prices or slowing growth, and argued that the administration's tax-cut proposal is needed to ensure the economy keeps expanding. Although growth has slowed, ``the overall health of the economy is excellent,'' he said.

The Nasdaq Composite Index has fallen about 20 percent since Bush took office Jan. 20 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down as much as 11 percent before rebounding in April to show a 3 percent gain as of today.

`Monitoring the Situation'

``Obviously, we are monitoring the situation,'' he said. ``It wasn't a complete surprise'' that stocks have declined, given widespread reports of weak earnings, he said.

``I don't know if markets will go up or down from here,'' Lindsey said. ``America is the best place in the planet to invest. As long as that's the case, prospects for America are very, very good.''

To ensure that remains true, he said, the Bush administration will support the Federal Reserve's ``efforts to have maximum non- inflationary growth'' and promote free trade and free capital flows.

The administration has been pushing for tax breaks to help the economy rebound after growth slowed to a 1 percent annual rate in the last quarter of 2000 -- the weakest in 5 1/2 years -- and to boost manufacturing, which has been in a slump since August. The economy grew at a 2 percent rate in the first three months of 2001.

Lindsey said in the current economic environment, ``it's important to keep consumer spending up.'' That's why the administration wants part of its proposed tax cut effective immediately.

Tax-Cut Agreement

Earlier today, Bush and congressional Republicans reached agreement on an 11-year, $1.35 trillion tax cut, Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott said. The plan includes $100 billion in tax cuts to boost the economy this year, as well as $1.25 trillion in long- term tax benefits, he said. Lindsey declined to comment on the agreement, saying he didn't know enough about its specifics.

U.S. savings by individuals was a negative $74.3 billion in the first quarter, the Commerce Department reported last month, compared with negative $51.6 billion in the fourth quarter.

That put the savings rate, which weighs current income from wages, salaries, businesses and government payments against spending, at minus 1 percent for the first quarter. The savings rate improved to minus 0.8 percent in March from a minus 1 percent in February, the Commerce Department reported this week. Savings doesn't account for borrowed money, income from investments, or withdrawals from prior savings.

Money to cover the excess in spending by consumers and business over their savings has come from two sources: government surpluses, which amounted to about 3 percent of GDP, and borrowing from foreign investors, who provided another 4 percent of GDP, Lindsey said.

Current Account Deficit

That 4 percent shortfall represents money the U.S. has to borrow overseas to pay for all the goods and services Americans import and to finance investment, commonly referred to as the current account deficit.

Last year, it widened to a record $435 billion, about 4.4 percent of the almost $10 trillion U.S. GDP. That's up from about 3.6 percent of GDP in 1999 and 2.5 percent a year earlier.

``We're in uncharted territory. We don't know how this will work out,'' he said. ``It's unlikely we can borrow 4 percent indefinitely from the rest of the world.''

Responding to a question, Lindsey said it wasn't necessary for the economy to risk recession or for the dollar to fall or interest rates to rise to solve the savings shortfall.

``People from all over the world are sending their money here because we have gotten it right,'' he said. ``The one thing we don't want to do is signal to others that we don't want their money.''

Horatio

(05/01/2001; 23:10:27 MDT - Msg ID: 52919)

Canada

Canada should U.S.Dollar-ize if they want to go the way of Argentina.Then the IMF could lend them some money and place rules on them that will guarantee collapse of the countrys exports and throw them into the hands of the money lenders.
The Shylocks Who will promptly take thier gold and silver mines as collateral by way of a mining tax.
Theres nothing new here'same ol money lenders.

Horatio

(05/01/2001; 23:13:45 MDT - Msg ID: 52920)

money lenders

Maybe the 2nd comming will bring a savior that will drive the money-lenders from the temple and the U.S.all at once

justamereBear

(05/01/2001; 23:27:27 MDT - Msg ID: 52921)

@ All & Peter Asher

First blush, I would say that the current account defict is where all the money that AG & Co have been manufacturing of late is going. Inflation is disturbingly benign. That money is all being shipped overseas, at a time when the dollar is under attack from various points, such as the euro. What happens when it wants to come home?

Linsay had better hope that the world can continue to find things to spend money on in, or reasons to send money to, the US.

The man is a "genious" at the positive spin.

j'Bear

Black Blade

(05/02/2001; 00:26:13 MDT - Msg ID: 52922)

Newmont gets temporary relief from rising power costs

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010501/n01150705.html
Snippit:

DENVER, May 1 (Reuters) - Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE:NEM), North America's biggest gold producer, said on Tuesday it has been granted temporary relief from rising power costs in the U.S. Southwest that has handcuffed many companies. Newmont, which has three mining operations in Nevada and is the state's biggest power user, said the state legislature recently froze the company's electricity rates at 6.6 cents a kilowatt hour for the rest of the year, easing fears that rates could climb as high as 7.5 cents per kilowatt hour by the end of the year.

Black Blade: More Mining and energy costs news. A minor reprieve perhaps. It does illustrate how much power is involved when one would think that some of Nevada's mega-casinos consume a large amount of energy. Newmont has the world's 2 largest autoclaves to process refractory ore and that alone consumes huge amounts of energy. Eventually they will have to pay higher prices for their energy. They have also recently announced plans to close several exploration offices as well. Looks like more gold production to be withheld from the market.
View Yesterday's Discussion.

Black Blade

(05/02/2001; 00:36:10 MDT - Msg ID: 52923)

Dems Oppose Calif. Energy Plan

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20010501/pl/energy_environment_4.html
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (AP) - House Democrats called a GOP energy plan aimed at helping California ``an assault on the nation's environmental laws'' Tuesday and said it does little to ease the state's impending summer power shortages and soaring electricity prices. Also of concern to environmentalists is a provision that - upon the request of a governor - would allow hydroelectric power producers in an electricity emergency to run dams at maximum output, overriding federal rules and court decisions for protection of fish such as several Northwest salmon protected by the Endangered Species Act.

Black Blade: The California Grasshopper looks to be endangered. Blackouts this summer is a foregone conclusion at this point. A consequence of not taking prudent precautions. "�and they danced, sang, and played all summer�"

Black Blade

(05/02/2001; 00:45:52 MDT - Msg ID: 52924)

Energy officials fear a powerless May

http://www.contracostatimes.com/partners/nf/maypower_20010501.htm
Declining energy supplies, plant closures and rising temperatures could make for a dark month

Snippit:

SACRAMENTO -- California's journey through a difficult summer of blackouts begins with the start of May, a month state officials concede is a dangerous and unpredictable prelude to what lies ahead. And they have reason to fear. The state's electricity supplies are waning, thanks to a slew of plants going down for maintenance or repairs at the same time temperatures are rising and peak power demand is expected to jump by 32 percent.

Black Blade: Also factor in Diablo Canyon Nuclear Plant shut down for 35 days for maintenance, and low snowpack in the Sierra's among several other potential problems and political miss-steps. The Kalifornia economy to hit the skids.

Black Blade

(05/02/2001; 01:16:43 MDT - Msg ID: 52925)

AngloGold raises prospect of lowering hedge further

http://m1.mny.co.za/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256A3F005F074A?OpenDocument
Snippit:

Godsell said one of the reasons why producers hedge gold in relatively high volumes is that the central banks have 32 000 tonnes of gold in their vaults which they are keen to manage. "In hedging, in lending the gold which makes hedging possible, they (the central banks) earn a modest return. "If everybody stopped hedging, would the central banks simply sit on the gold with no return whatsoever, or would they be more inclined to sell. I'm inclined to the latter line of reasoning," he said.

Black Blade: Bobby, Bobby, Bobby. Come on now. These clowns generally sell to each other not in the open market and only then out of necessity. Even the BOE auction sells only to a select club by invitation only. Generally CB sales are nothing more than paper swapping (like a sloppy drooling open-mouthed kiss). Few actual physical sales ever take place. The whole point of keeping gold reserves is for diversification of monetary reserves and for insurance. The World's largest reserves in the US, IMF, etc. are not sold for good reason. AG states that gold is the currency of last resort. In other words - gold is the ultimate currency.

Black Blade

(05/02/2001; 01:46:28 MDT - Msg ID: 52926)

NAPM: Industrial Outlook Worst in Decades

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010501/business_economy_napm_outlook_dc.html
Snippit:

ORLANDO, Fla. (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing executives are more pessimistic about the 12-month outlook for their sector than in nearly four decades, the National Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM) said Tuesday.

Black Blade: Recession around the corner. Come on Cheetah (AG) - throw us a 100 basis point banana! I prefer a different kind of yellow.

Netking

(05/02/2001; 03:55:33 MDT - Msg ID: 52927)

Silver - geographical disparity of price

Silver crew, a discussion I heard thrown around: How much of a disparity of price do think there will be between different world zones after "silver is loosed from the strong man" and we see levels like the 1980 high surpassed?. Are we going to see the UK, USA, France, Australia & Mexico etc(as an example)all selling at similar USD prices or will we see a number of different sub-markets forming with national price structures in place based on compound investment/industrial demand. Obviously with possible confiscation "in the national interest" as potential issue(in one or two countries) and price fixing/regulation you could gain another disparity in price again yes?

SALMON

(05/02/2001; 06:00:58 MDT - Msg ID: 52928)

Open question

Since I first started following the gold market back in 1995, I read various publications quoting that 32000 tons was owned by Central Banks. Six years later the Bank of England sold half of its holdings and other countries like Switzerland, Greece, Mongolia, Brazil, Venezuela, Uruguay, Austria, The Netherlands, Jordan, UAE, Zimbabwe, Malaysia, Kazakhstan sold part of their holdings. Some countries like Canada and Australia sit with totally empty vaults.

Yet, today we are still quoted that 32000 tons are in the possession of the Central Banks and some even state 33000 tons. Most of the gold sold (80%) according to World Gold Cancel was sold to jewelry producers.

Am I missing something?

elevator guy

(05/02/2001; 06:07:12 MDT - Msg ID: 52929)

@Black Blade, re: post (5/2/01; 01:16:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 52925)

Hello Sir Blackblade,
Me thinks thou needeth to step away from thy computer, and gettest thou a breath of fresh air, and perhaps to bask in the sunshine for a spell.
It appears that this CB thing has so absorbed your thoughts, that the issues are mixing with your baser emotions!

Generally CB sales are nothing more than paper swapping (like a sloppy drooling open-mouthed kiss).

(The above is intended as good-natured ribbing. Its always hard to do this without body language, intonation, etc)

Black Blade

(05/02/2001; 06:24:39 MDT - Msg ID: 52930)

Where there's gold there's fire

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?column=Thom+Calandra's+StockWatch&siteid=mktw
Snippit:

LONDON (FTMW) - Some professional investors are questioning the traditional belief that gold - and gold mining shares - can only rise as the U.S. dollar declines or as inflation accelerates.

Black Blade: Good Thom Calandra Gold article this morning. I suggest that everyone take a look and ponder this one.

elevator guy - I hear ya! I hope to nail a turkey this weekend. Got only one this year and one more to go.

MO VER MEG

(05/02/2001; 06:58:44 MDT - Msg ID: 52931)

Black Blade

I try to read a large variety of daily energy/gold articles. I usually read the best first - that is why I begin with your postings. Thanks, I am listening.

MO VER MEG

Black Blade

(05/02/2001; 07:19:48 MDT - Msg ID: 52932)

MO VER MEG

Thanks, I try to accomodate. The Energy Crisis and gold will likely prove to be closely entwined. It could all break loose in the next few months (maybe sooner). Now I think that I will follow elevatorguy's advice and get some sunlight to mitigate my vitamin D deficiency ;-)

Peter Asher

(05/02/2001; 10:35:17 MDT - Msg ID: 52933)

Ha ha ha, he he he he, help me stop laughing!

http://www.nytimes.com/2001/05/02/technology/02WALL.html
"I was taught at N.Y.U. that market prices are reached in efficient markets, and they weren't polluted by market manipulation."

From business school graduate who "raised a few hundred thousand dollars from family and friends and nearly tripled his money the next year by buying many of the bull market's hot new technology stocks." then "went from driving a Porsche Boxster to being unemployed virtually overnight."

Link above for : " Complaints Challenge Fairness of Late 1990's Boom in I.P.O.'s""

beesting

(05/02/2001; 11:14:56 MDT - Msg ID: 52934)

Early Use of Gold Coins in California.

Someone recently posted that the state of California would rank as the 6th(?) wealthiest nation on earth if it was an independent nation. Below may be one of the reasons.""A FREE MARKET IN GOLD""!

From Congressman Ron Paul's "Money Book", start quotes:

Perhaps in the future we need to consider a free market money, allowing consumers to decide about their money the way they decide about everything else. Hans Sennholz and Friedrich von Hayek argue for this system. And it existed at one time in our country.
In California, during the 1840s and 1850s, many privately minted Gold coins circulated. The practice was outlawed in 1864,'but as late as 1914", points out Anthony Sutton," the U.S. Treasury was still trying to halt the circulation of private Gold peices in San Francisco. "Why were such coins still circulating? Because the private mints maintained higher standards than the government mint. Often, points out Dr. Sutton, they were one percent heavier than government issues,"to protect the user from metal loss by abrasion while the coin was in circulation."Private mints held to a higher standard because they were protected by their reputation. They could not force consumers to take sub-standard money by force of law, as government can.
The north financed the Civil War with hundreds of millions of dollars of Greenback notes, and as a result prices more than doubled from 1861 to 1865.
During the Greenback inflation, people in California continued to use Gold as money."In California, as in other states," points out Frank Taussig,"paper was legal tender...", that is,people could be forced to accept it. Although there was no antipathy towards the Federal government, people believed strongly in Gold."Every debtor had the legal right to pay off his debts in depreciated paper. But if he did so, he was a marked man(the creditor was likely to post him publicly in the newspapers)and he was virtually boycotted. Throughout the period,paper was not used in California." End of Quote.

Comment:
For 50 years after private Gold coins were outlawed the people of California still continued to use them, that must be why Roosevelt made his confiscation laws so harsh 19 years later. Thanks for Reading....beesting.

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/02/2001; 12:28:06 MDT - Msg ID: 52935)

Fed buys Treasuries, adds permanent and temporary reserves

The Federal Reserve today added $470 million in permanent reserves to the banking system through the outright purchase of Treasury coupons (dated Nov. 2021 to Feb 2029).

Also today the Fed added $4.25 billion in temporary banking reserves via overnight Rp's.

IronHead

(05/02/2001; 13:16:11 MDT - Msg ID: 52936)

Meet The New Boss - Same As The Old Boss?

For anyone hoping Dubby Jr. will cast a spell of enlightenment on the gold manipulation; take the following test. Pretend you've been on a remote beach for the past 6 months sipping maitais, and are not aware of the election outcome.

Please note; IronHead has NO political ofaliation with any party of a demo-lican nature, whatsoever.

12 question test to differentiate whom won the recent presidential election; note - after first 100 days in orifice.

1) If elected president, which one would boost Slick's Americorps program by $282 million?

2) Which one would continue Slick's lawsuit against tobacco companies? note: John Ashcroft has indicated that the justice dept. is willing to spend as much as Reno's dept did in pursuing this matter. source - Wahington Times April 27, 2001

3) Which one would increase federal elementary and secondary education spending by 72%?

4) Which one would maintain the so called "Gore Tax", a $2.3 billion levy (tax) on telephone bills, used to wire schools to the internet?

5) Which one would request a 3.6% pay hike for all federalist workers? IronHead - have to keep those federalists on top of inflation, no? Oh, there is no inflation....Hmmm.

6) Which one would impose the decree by Slick's admin. to implement the medical "privacy" rules, which give the grabbit your medical records?

7) Which one increased spending for Public Broadcasting Corp. by $10 billion?

8) Which one would bar development on privately owned wetlands, in continuation of Slick's "wetland" agenda?

9) Which one vowed a renewed commitment to America's gun laws? footnote: Attorney General Ashcroft said " no question" we need "renewed commitment" to enforce the nations myriad gun laws, and has requested $158 million additional funding for that purpose. source Washington Times, April 27, 2001.

10) Which one would spend an additional $46 billion on a federal program to give low cost prescription drugs to seniors? IronHead - heck, let em grow their own.

11) Which one would deffer privatization of Social Security to a special commission for study? note: same one who made privatization of Social Secrutiy a cornerstone of his campaign.

12) *IronHead's favorite* Which one would propose a $400 million dollar increase for the grabbit's tax collection arm, to increase the payroll by 4000 people?

So, if I've guessed Algore for any of the above questions, wrongo. I might even think Dubby is one of "us", and he is ready to support a free gold market, free of uncle grabbit's intervention in a free market society. Wowsers, am I stupid, or am I stupid? Think I'll be heading back to my island to finish the maitai.

Salutations,
IronHead

R Powell

(05/02/2001; 15:28:09 MDT - Msg ID: 52937)

One and one half fer day

Quiet day. POG up slightly, XAU down just a little and short term lease rates down/ longer term rates up, again just slightly. Better luck tomorrow?
Rich

Tree in the Forest

(05/02/2001; 16:08:28 MDT - Msg ID: 52938)

Netking, Salmon, Peter Asher

Netking: There have been times when different PM markets had different prices. I am thinking specifically of the Dubai gold market in the 30's-40's(?) when gold was priced higher than London. However these days, communication and transportation is much better. Market price differences cannot significantly exceed transportation costs for very long without the difference being arbitraged. The only exception to that would be a war or some kind of force majeure where import/export/transportation is restricted. War is a distinct possibility. So the answer to your question is a definite maybe. Does that help?

Salmon: You asked:
"Since I first started following the gold market back in 1995, I read various publications quoting that 32000 tons was owned by Central Banks...Yet, today we are still quoted that 32000 tons are in the possession of the Central Banks and some even state 33000 tons. Most of the gold sold (80%) according to World Gold Cancel was sold to jewelry producers.
Am I missing something?"
Sorry for being flip (I'm a wiseguy...it's my job) but you are definitely missing something. You are missing the innumerable discussions over the last several years on this board during which we have pretty much beaten this subject to death. But I don't expect you to review several years of discussion! I think we have concluded (with Trail Guide's considerable help) that the bulk of the CB sales have just been CBs passing gold back and forth between themselves. Makes it look like nobody wants gold but since they still have all of their gold, that must be false! So they drive down POG without losing anything. Isn't that nice of them?

Peter Asher: You said:
"From business school graduate who "raised a few hundred thousand dollars from family and friends and nearly tripled his money the next year by buying many of the bull market's hot new technology stocks." then "went from driving a Porsche Boxster to being unemployed virtually overnight."

Me: It's funny but sad too. Like the guy whose stock options went to $8 million and now are down around $1 million. Don't these guys ever take profits? Haven't they ever heard of stops? If the bozo had taken a 1 million profit and then put some stops in (even generously low!) he'd still have over half his money. Like youth is wasted on the young, money is wasted on the rich (albeit temporarily rich).

auspec

(05/02/2001; 17:31:34 MDT - Msg ID: 52939)

Tree in the Forest/Salmon

CB GoldHello Sir Tree {sounds new-age, doesn't it}. I have only been around 1 year and have yet to see Salmon's question answered satisfactorily as far as depletion of CB gold. Per your response:

"I think we have concluded (with Trail Guide's considerable help) that the bulk of the CB sales have just been CBs passing gold back and forth between themselves."

I still don't get it as to where all the vast jewelry supply comes from if that is indeed the case. It is not paper gold adorning all those lovely limbs and appendages and it has to originate from somewhere. Maybe it's someone else's "short gold", but the gold lovers now have 100% posession and someone else has a potential problem. Certainly the CBs play the gold reshuffling game, but we must remember that CBs count lent/leased gold as though it were still in their posession! So what is their TRUE gold position? They say 32,000, but reality issomething else entirely. Some of the items we so generously lend out never find their way back, right? I'm still waiting for a chainsaw, but no longer include it in my list of tools {ha}.
So, the question becomes; If the CBs still have all their gold on the whole, where has all the industrial, monetary and jewelry gold supply come from? Until convinced otherwise I believe the CBs have compromised somewhere near 15,000 tons of the yellow dog. They may get it back as gold in the ground with their predatory practices of M&As, but these leased ounces/tons are now in the hands of others! The only other answer that makes sense is that there are large amounts of unaccounted for gold AVAILABLE as supply to markets. Who really knows about this POSSIBILITY? So:
1. The CBs are short.
2. Gold demand has been and remains extraordinary. Of course when investment demand really kicks in....
Thank you, Sirs! I am totally open and ready to be convinced otherwise if the info is put forth.
auspecfully

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/02/2001; 19:08:49 MDT - Msg ID: 52940)

Pesos STRONGER than dollars???? It could happen.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010502/n02356261.htmlWith the Argentine Congress set to debate the bill to make the euro an equal partner with the dollar in the 10-year-old currency peg, the peso could actually outperform the dollar if the country can keep its fiscal house in order.

While open to debate and alteration, as orignally conceived, the bill introduced by Economy Minister Domingo Cavallo intends to replace the old currency peg requirements of one U.S. dollar held in reserve for each peso in circulation. The new peg calls for a replacement of half of the dollars in reserves with euros, designed to be implemented when the euro attains exchange parity with the dollar.

And to those sitting on the sidelines pondering the future value of the dollar on the world scene, those involved in the debate seem to take as a foregone conclusion that the dollar will fall relative to the euro to bring about the precipitating condition of parity. Further, the old proposals for "dollarization" of the Argentine economy are now being seen as a path equivalent toward peso devalution because, in the words of the article, "the euro is likely to outstrip the dollar in strength eventually."

You surely strive earnestly for your income. You may be content to hold it in the form of paper which can fail suddenly under the management of others; OR, you might rather prefer to hold the timeless wealth of kings and thereby be a "man of gold" with a fistful of integrity. Resolve now to give Centennial a call and claim the wealth you've already earned.

justamereBear

(05/02/2001; 19:38:27 MDT - Msg ID: 52941)

Tree in the forest 52938

You say that in todays world it is near impossible for a two tier gold price to exist.

Try Russia over the last 10 years. The world price was running either side of US$10 (up to 12) per gram. That is what the government was getting for its official holdings as it tried to control the economy. At the time when the government changed its modus operandi, they were getting about $12/gram, internationally. When they announced the change, the "secretary of the treasury" equivilant said, "we are going to sell internally, we can get US$20 per gram on our own black market." (not to mention that they can ultimately grab it back)

So in their system they had the Ruble, a de facto US dollar exchange, and a gold exchange. Strongest arguement I know for owning precious metals. The supposedly rock solid USD was being beaten, hands down, 2 to 1 almost, by gold, in a time of trauma and uncertainty. The local fiat currency had gone to zero, effectively. Extrapolate what might happen if the USD goes to zero?

j'Bear

Tree in the Forest

(05/02/2001; 19:54:02 MDT - Msg ID: 52942)

Auspec, Trail Guide

Auspec: "Some of the items we so generously lend out never find their way back, right? I'm still waiting for a chainsaw, but no longer include it in my list of tools {ha}."

LOL! I guess I have some stuff to write off too! As to whether or not CBs still have their gold I would bet they still have most of it, though I certainly can't prove that. Even the US with their "custodial gold" which now supposedly belongs to someone else, still has it in their possession! Admittedly, we haven't had an audit of our gold in several decades but hey, we trust them right? We do still have mines and scrap recovery supplying physical gold. And the CBs have probably been forced to lease out some gold to continue supporting the dollar. I guess the real question is how much gold has been leased by CBs? If it's almost half as you say (15,000 tonnes) then these bankers are in deep doo doo. If the you know what hits the fan, I wouldn't want to be a central banker who had to face the music because a lot of gold is missing. What would really be interesting is if the ECB really doesn't have the gold they claim to have backing the Euro. Can you imagine if it was all paper promises? Paper backing paper! Hey Trail Guide, do these guys have any physical gold left or has it all been leased? When was the last time the ECB vaults were audited? Thanks for your help.

Elwood

(05/02/2001; 20:06:10 MDT - Msg ID: 52943)

On a slow news day we make our own

http://www.britneyspears.ac/lasers.htm

LOS ANGELES (AD) � California lawmakers today hailed a new bipartisan plan for dealing with the state's onerous energy shortages and soaring electricity prices. The plan, introduced yesterday in the state house, calls for replacing nearly all of the natural gas and other fossil fuel power generating facilities with "human effort." Exact details of the plan have yet to be made public, but information gained by this reporter through leaks, bribes, blackmail and outright intimidation has allowed news organizations to fill in many of the gaps.

The plan calls for the strict regulation and regulatory oversight of all health clubs, workout facilities, gyms and even public and private school physical education classes. All Californians, many of whom work out regularly at their local health facilities or just have a jog in the park will now be required to "register" all such activity and perform it in state designated areas such that the heretofore wasted effort of their strenuous activity can be channeled into the production of electricity for the state. The bill requires that all exercise equipment be redesigned or retrofitted with power-generating devices and plugged into the state's power grid by 5:00pm Friday afternoon in time for the "weekend warrior" sessions.

In unveiling their plan lawmakers will also reveal many of the state-certified devices which will be used for carrying out this new policy. From information gained from these insiders this news organization has learned that the devices are fairly new and ingenuous in nature. "They've thought of everything," one member of the energy commision admitted under condition he remained anonymous, but his wife, Mrs. Jones, readily agreed. "They've got little doodads that you have to clip to your roller skates and will power a whole light bulb on a downhill," she was overheard giggling. "�and you should see what they've done to those tennis balls."

Many celebrities have signed on to the effort. Jesse Jackson has re-invogorated his followers by promising to bring back "Black Power." The Screen Actors Guild have created their own "Star Power" organization and are milking it to the hilt. Environmentalists and animal rights activists, all eager to get on with the business of fighting cruelty to the environment, have join in. One member was overheard stating, "You should see what we have for all those dolphins we've saved. Just one pod of those suckers can power a whole house for a month."

Further developments to follow�..

Tree in the Forest

(05/02/2001; 20:21:22 MDT - Msg ID: 52944)

J' Bear

You misquote me sir J Bear! What I said and still say, is that arbitrageurs will arbitrage a price difference if there is a profit to be made. There are conditions that can stop them like a totalitarian government with import/export restrictions etc. I think that applies in Russia where markets are still controlled. I am sure Michael wouldn't mind getting twice the price for his gold coins if it could be done. If he could sell into Russia (or Europe for that matter) at a significantly higher price, we would soon find he had little gold left for sale here. Having said that, shipping and import duties can be a factor in determining a final sale price. Modest differences can exist but big differences won't exist for long under normal circumstances. Energy in California is an interesting example. I bet power generators in adjacent states would love to sell energy to the grasshoppers at two or three times the local price, if they have it available and if they could be assured of getting paid. Transmission costs must be factored in. When they sell their energy in CA, local prices rise. Less energy available locally, more in CA. Prices tend to equalize. Of course now, they have to factor in the cost of default in CA. Also we have market restrictions imposed by a government, forced selling by another government, in short, a mess. But under normal conditions, costs gravitate to equalization.

Canuck

(05/02/2001; 20:25:30 MDT - Msg ID: 52945)

Silver

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.htmlLooks like silver was a wee bit busy in N.Y. today.

auspec

(05/02/2001; 20:57:35 MDT - Msg ID: 52946)

Hey Silver Sops!

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/flett050301pv.htmlFrom Robert Flett @ GE:
"Out of curiosity, I called a number of local bullion dealers for quotes. In addition to price variations of up to 30% from one dealer to another for silver coins ......, all stated that they were having great difficulty getting silver bars. One dealer stated that they had stopped taking orders for 100 oz. bars as they had such a long waiting list. Is this a result of refiners holding back supply because of the current low prices, or is there a supply/demand problem building faster than we anticipated?"

"Was astounded to learn of the overwhelming influence of derivatives in gold trading...50 times the size of the physical gold market, and that a similar ratio exists in silver trading. Derivatives also play an even greater role in currency trading and could suddenly cause the dollar to head south, while gold and silver head in the opposite direction." END

Comments: Nice derivative trading, no?
I priced VG Morgan and Vg Peace dollars today. The Peace were $8.20 and the Morgans were up to $8.91. Each contains approx. .77 oz. of silver so this becomes a fairly hefty premium over spot. May as well give a plug for the house while here------ Great prices and service on silver bags! Thanks,
Get it, it's happening.

Peter Asher

(05/02/2001; 21:07:28 MDT - Msg ID: 52947)

@ Ellwood re harnessing human kinetics.

One major source which was overlooked could be harnessed by installing inverse walking beam generators under --------

grostig

(05/02/2001; 21:16:12 MDT - Msg ID: 52948)

Help buying EURO calls.

Hi,

I've got physical gold, but want to play with some paper.

I want to buy a call for the EURO, believing it will rally sharply in the future. Current price is about 0.90 and I expect it to go above .95 and then to $1.20.

I have $3000 - $5000 to speculate. I am considering at the money or out of the money calls (to get more contracts and leverage? I believe??). The volatility skew is a concern over .95 or so? I am thinking of June Sept or Dec 01 expirations, but don't know how to look at the vega to determine which is better. If I loose this money I will put more in, expecting that it will happen eventually.

I will trade tomorrow at 0.92 Sept01 unless I get other advice. Any help is truely appreciated.

Solomon Weaver

(05/02/2001; 22:22:53 MDT - Msg ID: 52949)

Russian Gold

justamereBear (05/02/01; 19:38:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 52941)
Tree in the forest 52938

I engaged my Russian wife last night in a conversation about gold jewelry...and she was absolutely of the opinion that Russian gold was "much more expensive, and much more beautiful" (i.e. an nice jewelry piece had in the good days when all had jobs already cost two months salary)...

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder...and since my wife is beautiful did I have the heart to try to explain to here that at spot all gold should be the same???

Poor old Solomon

Black Blade

(05/02/2001; 22:30:14 MDT - Msg ID: 52950)

Some Analysts See Stagflation Again Rearing Its Ugly Head

http://www.latimes.com/business/20010429/t000036205.html
Snippit:

The year-over-year inflation rate peaked at 12.2% in 1974, fell back for two years, then resurged to 13.3% by 1979. The first peak came during one of the nation's nastiest postwar recessions, and the second came during a time of barely sputtering growth. These twin bouts of stagflation are popularly associated with the big oil price increases that hit the United States in 1973 and 1979.

Black Blade: This article is a couple of days old, doesn't go into details and misses a few important points, but interesting nonetheless.

justamereBear

(05/02/2001; 23:26:40 MDT - Msg ID: 52951)

Solomon Weaver

LOL LOL

j'Bear

justamereBear

(05/02/2001; 23:51:06 MDT - Msg ID: 52952)

Tree in the forest

My appologies. That was what I read as the underlying message. It is true that in a totally free market, where arbitrage is easy, little price diffrence will exist, one market to another.

Are you suggesting that any market, for anything, in any part of the world is totally free, what between outright manipulation, government laws, regulations, and things like "professional societies" and marketing boards?

I recently read, I believe it was in "The Alpha strategy" published in the early 80's, that a study by the Colorado State University found that there were some 41,000 state and federal regulations effecting the common hamburger, everything from grazing the beef cattle, to assembly of the burger at your local fast food outlet. I can believe it.

I was not trying to disparage your message, rather more I agreed with much of it, but my cynical view of life as "she is lived" wanted to add another dimension.

Sorry, again
j'Bear

justamereBear

(05/02/2001; 23:55:08 MDT - Msg ID: 52953)

Tree in the forest

And BTW, I agree with your arguments in 52944

j'Bear

justamereBear

(05/03/2001; 00:39:50 MDT - Msg ID: 52954)

Grostig--Calls

Have you considered that not only do you have to be right in the direction, but also within the timeframe of the calls?

I have poured a lot of money down the rathole of calls. Still do. In hindsight, it looks pretty foolish. I probably would have been better off to buy the underlying.

As I said, I still do buy calls, for my own reasons. I see nothing inherently wrong buying calls, if it is done for the right reasons.

Have you considered buying bonds, denominated in Euros. At least that way you are paid interest while you are waiting, and time does not work against you in a flat market, which is certainly the case with calls. You will probably give up some leverage tho.

j'Bear

View Yesterday's Discussion.

Black Blade

(05/03/2001; 01:03:58 MDT - Msg ID: 52955)

Oil Retreats; US Stocks Record Big Build

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010502/bs/markets_oil_dc_2.html

Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices beat a retreat on Wednesday as an increase in fuel stocks in the United States doused concerns about a gasoline supply shortage this summer. Dealers said U.S. industry and government data indicated that a rush of imports had lifted crude inventories while increased refinery operations had boosted petrol stocks.

Black Blade: The problem of course isn't the supply of crude oil, but the ability to refine enough reformulated summer grades of gasoline. Refinery utilization rates are at 95.8% - nearly maxed out. Gasoline inventories are still below last years levels. The test comes as summer driving season gets under way. The real test for the energy crisis is NG. NG storage levels are up 19% from record lows though still far below last years levels. The increase in attributed to warmer weather. If consumers experience hot summer weather NG/utility prices will rise with the temperature as air conditioners are cranked up. Meanwhile, currently NG production is falling behind last years pace as decline rates in producing fields are accelerating. Then the problem could get critical come next winter if NG storage levels fall or aren't built up over the summer months. Most US homes are heated with NG and nearly 25% electricity is NG-fired. Virtually all new power plants are NG-fired. In spite of what some "professional" analysts and government bureaucrats at the BLS may say, higher energy costs do hit the consumer in the pocketbook and is in reality a major contributor to inflation. We are in a recession and it looks to get much worse. Many survivors will be found safe in golden lifeboats.

working-kirk

(05/03/2001; 01:08:08 MDT - Msg ID: 52956)

Good Interview about the FED. possible reason why fed panicked

http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htmThis is a very good interview Anne Williamson of worldnet daily. It doesn't really tell us nothing we haven't talked on this forum, except one. She mentions in passing one of the lastest bailout was a 10,000,000,000 (10 billion) of International Money Fund loan to Turkey because of the Lira
meltdown. Also be sure to listen to the commentary. Jim
mention he was watching bubblevision and he noticed that all analysts downgraded oil and energy. He said their companies was shorting the energy stocks and pushing techs.
(Black Blade This seem the perfect time for your insight, comments analysis.)

working-kirk

(05/03/2001; 01:13:31 MDT - Msg ID: 52957)

U.S. and China planes collide (again)Please comfirm

I saw this as as a late night special edition put out by out
local newspaper, and I am hoping either the editors made a
mistake or I was looking at a month and a half old copy.

It said The U.S. and china had another plane collide.

I was thinking we got through the last one by sheer luck and
the U.S. should be damn grateful we got the aircrew safe and sould and forget trying to get the airplane back. It would
have be a worthwhile price.

Black Blade

(05/03/2001; 01:18:55 MDT - Msg ID: 52958)

Rising US unemployment to trigger recession-ECRI

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010502/n02462935.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK, May 2 (Reuters) - U.S. joblessness will rise in the months ahead, and will lead to an outright economic recession this year, the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), a New York private research firm, said on Wednesday. ECRI's leading employment index (LEI) ``remains strongly negative'' at a 19-year low, following a path seen before when growth recessions, or periods of below-trend economic expansion, develop into full-blown recessions.

Black Blade: April US unemployment numbers come out on Friday.

Peter Asher

(05/03/2001; 01:24:17 MDT - Msg ID: 52959)

@Black Blade msg#: 52950)

Some Analysts See Stagflation Again Rearing Its Ugly Head
That article has some interesting contradictions. First there is >>> However, a pair of economists from the University of Michigan, Robert Barsky and Lutz Kilian, contend that the main reason wasn't the oil shocks but monetary shocks caused by misguided "go-and-stop" credit policies of the Federal Reserve. <<<<

Then the (one) money manager says >>> Instead of puzzling over the mysteries of productivity and worrying about whether the falling stock market would dampen consumer spending, Friedberg and other critics say, the Fed should be paying attention to its primary job: restraining inflation. "They should begin to talk about discipline and maybe think about raising rates rather than cutting them," Friedberg said.

The economists are right! Following are comments from ORO and I in two posts earlier this year and something from GE last night that realy nails it IMO

Peter Asher (2/20/2001; 11:25:46MT usagold.com msg#: 48607)
Re ORO >>>> the Fed will not be able to raise interest rates as prices begin rising,
because prices will continue rising to reflect the additional cost of borrowing needed to build the capital, up to the point where the Fed raises rates so high as to kill investment completely, <<<<

Isn't that exactly what the Fed did twenty years ago thereby creating "The Perfect Stagflation"? They won't this time IMO, because the unbelievable debt bubble would burst.

Peter Asher (04/02/01; 15:45:03MT usagold.com msg#: 51282)
******The New Fifth Horseman******
Stagflation occurs when a confluence of high capital and production costs create an environment in which only the most solvent entities are left standing and able to command the higher price of survival

@(JOE) May 01, 09:25 "Stagflation's ugly head"
(Diogenes) May 02, 03:07
(This is also posted as an addendum to my earlier below.)

The stagflation of the 70's was fueled by both energy costs AND high interest, of which I suspect the interest costs were the greater.

This �paradoxical� phenomena evolved from an economy that had evolved to the size and complexity that enabled the business entities with strong marketing power to pass along cost increases to the consumer.Simultaneously, the weaker succumbed and middle managers were on hi-way corners running hotdog stands. The companies and workers that survived were the payers of the higher prices. Those that failed, were the statistics of the recession. Simple as that!

This time around we have:

1) current energy costs are NOT higher, adjusted for inflation. They ARE higher in the workings of th bubble-boom that the exceedingly low cost helped build.

2) Very low interest rates that absolutely cannot be raised without explosively bankrupting the total system.

I suspect the Fed and its cohorts realized that they failed back then at "Punishing" inflation out of existence. The rising interest rates served to knock out the very competition that must exist to curtail price increases. If a business gets pushed into the red and has no profit to operate with, along with the unserviceable cost or absence of any new credit then it's toast! The event was the most idiotic act of central bank planning in history.

This barley sustainable foolishness is now dependent on
keeping everyone in the earnings loop and able to service dept as cheaply as can be brought about. It is the receivers of interest income, who must be sacrificed to the lions of mathematical reality, if this thing has even a prayer of survival.

Black Blade

(05/03/2001; 01:40:44 MDT - Msg ID: 52960)

Working-kirk

The downgrade of the oil sector is solely based on the 8 million barrel up tick in crude oil inventories. This month on the 15th OPEC meets to reset export quotas again. They could very well adjust production again as they are very wary of low oil prices that hurt them during the 1990's. Crude oil inventories are still below last years levels though and any reduced production could result in another oil sector run up. As I have said the real problem isn't so much the availability of oil but the means to refine it. Refinery utilization is nearly maxed out and any refinery shutdown (accident or maintenance) could push fuel prices higher. Ultimately we must accept that "cheap oil" is will be a thing of the past as the "Super Giant" oil fields are in various states of decline and more costly smaller fields and non-conventional will have to come on line to make up for the eventual shortfall. For that to happen higher prices will be needed to provide incentive to produce more oil. We have a NG shortage and that could get worse if there is less oil production due to the fact that both oil and NG occur together in many areas. A drop in oil production will result in a drop in NG production. There are plans for at least 275 new NG-fired power plants between now and 2006. If there is not enough NG to supply these new power plants they will only still as monuments to poor planning and a lack of an energy policy. Every postwar recession has been preceded by an energy crisis. We have an energy crisis now but it is more an inability to create enough electrical power rather than gasoline rationing. But then again, wasn't it these financial experts in 1998 that said we were looking at $5.00/bbl oil forever? Hmmm� Cheers!

- Black Blade

Peter Asher

(05/03/2001; 01:41:39 MDT - Msg ID: 52961)

@ Black Blade msg#: 52958)

Rising US unemployment to trigger recession-ECRI
I don't think so! Note >>> what caught our eye is the service sector didn't crank out jobs,'' Achuthan said.<<<

This is not the sector with the 125% mortgages, 401-Ks and large credit card balances. The quantitative change to the servicing and maintaining of the double-bubble of credit and stocks will not be significant from that.

It would take ALLOT of upscale unemployment to trigger a cross-cascading default that would implode the system.

Black Blade

(05/03/2001; 02:13:55 MDT - Msg ID: 52962)

Peter Asher

Yes, I noticed that in the article and I admit I was a bit confused. There appears to be a split in opinion among various camps of economists. Remember former Head Fed Paul Volker and the Fed gave the economy a bit of "shock Treatment" when we found ourselves in that mess last time around and though it was painful it seems to have worked. AG and the Fed seem to be taking a bit of a different tack with rate cuts, etc. Now we have a massive build up of money creation to add fuel to the fire. AG's quick-fix rate cuts only look to temporarily delay the inevitable. I don't think that we can avoid a major recession. What I have mentioned though is that every postwar recession has been preceded by an energy crisis albeit they have been oil related and each one sent shock waves through the economy. This time the energy crisis is related to insufficient power generation that effects the whole economy from business to the individual. Maybe it is a matter of energy crises that lead to economic shock waves and the Fed aggravating the problem with incompetence? Maybe ORO could jump in on this one again. I haven't seen him here much lately.

The unemployment article caught my eye as it supposedly related their historical data to the timing of recessions in the recent past. It was something that I didn't think about before. The correlation deserved some recognition though I am not sure whether it carries much weight as this is not my area of expertise. I notice that Forbes has an ongoing "body count" at their site as they seem to think that the rising unemployment figures could relate to something being seriously amiss. I threw that article in hoping that maybe someone might address this issue. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Netking

(05/03/2001; 02:37:05 MDT - Msg ID: 52963)

Justamerebear / Tree in The Forrest / Working Kirk / Auspec

Tree in the Forrest/Just A Mere Bear - Re: Arbitrage on the markets: Some interesting points made by both of you Sir's. There has certainly been intervention in the past, direct & indirect causing disparity not always rectified through arbitrage. Confiscation has featured in the PM markets in the past, why not again especially Ag,yes?

Auspec - Keep those bullish Ag reports a commin Brother! I believe that there is a window of opportunity NOW in Silver, but it will not last for very long. The word has got out & is gathering pace among those on the outside of the "PM community". Look for investment demand to rapidly outstrip industrial.

Working Kirk - Oh dear oh dear Sir! No they got the report wrong or you saw an oldy. The last reported near miss(until son of Bush plays 'Star Trek'that is)was three Aussie naval ships being challenged & prevented passage by the PRC close to Taiwan. The Aussies being who they are probably replied something like:"You Shielas get Out of way!"...and went on through!

Cage Rattler

(05/03/2001; 02:39:09 MDT - Msg ID: 52964)

Winstar Communications & Greenspan's Panic

There is one specifically remarkable element in the April 18 interest rate action by Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan. Senior financial analysts point to the eerie coincidence of the Chapter 11 bankruptcy declaration by the New York-Virginia telecommunications company, Winstar Communications, on April 18, and the Fed rate cut the same day.

What has come to light is the little-publicized practice of key telecom suppliers, such as Lucent Technologies and Cisco Systems, of giving huge credit lines to companies, such as Winstar, in order to prevent collapse of their orders for telecom equipment in the present meltdown of the "New Economy."

On April 16, two days before its bankruptcy declaration, Winstar had defaulted on $75 million in interest payment on its $6.3 billion debts. Out of the total debt, Winstar had an estimated $1 billion supply credit line from Lucent Technologies, which itself is in such precarious financial condition, that it had to issue several denials of looming bankruptcy during the past weeks. While giving huge credit lines to their customers, the telecom suppliers themselves have huge debts to their banking creditors - a cross-credit chain-reaction situation with a systemic meltdown potential. Thus, according to informed acounts, the Winstar bankruptcy was a key factor in Greenspan's panicked rate cut at 10:54 in the morning of April 18.

Despite the Fed rate cut, another large "New Economy" company, PSINet Inc., which announced staggering 4th Quarter losses of $3.2 billion, and a $5 billion loss for the year, is rumored to be close to a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing. PSINet has $3.6 billion in debts. Winstar and PSINet are but the tip of a very big iceberg of insolvent "New Economy" companies, which can trigger chain-reaction mega-crisis of the financial system in the United States and beyond.

Source: Vol. 15, No. 17 , EIR STRATEGIC ALERT April 26, 2001

Black Blade

(05/03/2001; 03:05:02 MDT - Msg ID: 52965)

Peru to investigate missing gold amid Fujimori probe

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3D119T9MC&live=true&tagid=ZZZ60A9VA0C⊂heading=americas
Snippit:

Peru is to launch a probe into allegations that gold bars have disappeared from the central bank. The probe is part of an investigation into accusations that ousted ex-President Alberto Fujimori stole $1bn before fleeing for Japan.

Black Blade: Sure is a lot of excitement over a barbarous relic ;-)

Trail Guide

(05/03/2001; 04:48:34 MDT - Msg ID: 52966)

Comment

Hello again!

Had some interesting conversations with a few friends recently. I'll try to convey those talks into a trail walk this weekend. Another sent me a letter and has offered a new reply post to the forum. I intend to convey that letter and his letter also. As a change, we are going to post his Thoughts on the Gold Trails page.

Now that my computer is finally back up to speed, will begin replies and comments to some of the great posts offered here a few days ago. Will return tomorrow!

TrailGuide

Black Blade

(05/03/2001; 05:49:48 MDT - Msg ID: 52967)

Executives still on edge

http://www.usatoday.com/money/general/2001-05-01-earns.htm
Snippit:

NEW YORK � With the first-quarter earnings season winding down, there's growing talk on Wall Street that stocks have bottomed and the worst of the "profit recession" is over. But corporate executives aren't as confident. Investors should brace for more ugly earnings. The reason: 244 U.S. firms have already issued profit warnings for the second quarter, putting it on pace to top the record 907 negative pre-announcements issued last quarter, says Chuck Hill at Thomson Financial/First Call. Profit warnings are running at twice the rate they did in the first quarter. "That is an ominous sign," he says. "Despite what the pundits say, there's still a lot of bad news to come."

Black Blade: Maybe it's time for analysts to lower their earnings estimates again so they can meet or exceed estimates and get another sucker rally going.

Black Blade

(05/03/2001; 06:11:17 MDT - Msg ID: 52968)

Stocks View: Slowdown or Ugly Recession?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010428/business_markets_stocks_dc_643.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. economy is changing and Wall Street is telling those bruised investors that there may be something more serious ahead than just a run-of-the-mill slowdown. After being pumped up for five years, stocks have crumbled over the past 12 months. Despite several recovery attempts, a lot of investors still sense that the economic environment is rapidly deteriorating and the nation could be slammed by a recession. ``Avoiding a recession at this stage in the U.S. would be unprecedented, given the reading we now have,'' says Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

Black Blade: More interesting global recession talk and predictions from ECRI. During times of economic uncertainty gold usually did well. Looks like time to allocate a bit more into gold. BTW, market futures look dismal this morning.

auspec

(05/03/2001; 07:01:15 MDT - Msg ID: 52969)

grostic & Euro Calls

Hope this is helpful, grostig: You simply need a futures {commodity} account that would allow you to own a Euro contract or, as you are looking for, calls on a future contract. This can be done easily with your $3-5K. The calls on futures will not be available via another type of account. I like your idea but have no idea of the fair pricing of any of these calls.
Best to you.

elevator guy

(05/03/2001; 08:41:25 MDT - Msg ID: 52970)

I see how this game is played!

If I was playing paper right now, this would be the time to go short. Right after a little paper rally, see?

In a day or so, the paper price of gold will go back down due the unseen hand, and the game starts again. But I am not riding that pendulum right now, and have no heart to short gold, paper or otherwise.

What do you bet it goes back down to $261 in a couple of days? Someone is raking in those call premiums!

auspec

(05/03/2001; 08:53:41 MDT - Msg ID: 52971)

GATA South African Conference

If gold holds true to recent form it will get pasted around the time of GATA's S.A. Conference this weekend. In an in-your-face show of force the Power Elite have not missed an opportunity to put down previous rebellions. Shows how seriously they take these challenges. They are playing an all or none game that is likely to leave them with..........NONE.
Get Em GATA!

ausome

(05/03/2001; 08:56:07 MDT - Msg ID: 52972)

short term high today?

I am playing the game of the shorts today. If you cant beat em join em. I agree with your analsis elevatorguy.

AbsoluteX

(05/03/2001; 09:01:55 MDT - Msg ID: 52973)

Working-Kirk Good Interview about the FED. possible reason why fed panicked

I couldn't find the interview with Anne Williams of WorldNetdaily in the link you have given..( http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm )
Do you have the exact link for that interview...
Thanks

Galearis

(05/03/2001; 09:28:55 MDT - Msg ID: 52974)

@ the USAGOLD silver camp

http://www.sharelynx.net/Charts/SumWGP.gifThe first link is somewhat off topic but begs a question (or two) in my mind as to the rationale behind Bush's "StarWars 2" coming to your neighbourhood (war) theatre near you.

In my mind the current administration is not on a healthy financial stance to ever initiate such a prohibitively expensive ABM system. This particular aberration was the spending nail that sealed the coffin of the old Soviet Union and will, for the same fundamental reasons, never see implementation at this fragile time (for the US) either. It would, however, as aluded to in the article, be a devisive factor for Europe and could not help the EURO cause. Methinks this is a ploy of the Bush administration to deflect attention (classic) to growing domestic economic problems ahead. This is all nonsense IMO and simply a political ploy.

The rest of the post is extremely interesting. Recommend those interested in silver on this forum to follow the links and ponder well what is revealed....

...snip..

Date: Wed May 02 2001 10:59
GoldBrick (Dollar just went negative.) ID#432102:

Date: Wed May 02 2001 10:59
sharefin (Cumulative world gold production) ID#284255:
Copyright � 2000 sharefin/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
This chart shows the cumulative world gold production since
1835.
The sum total is here comes in at just under 120,000 tons
So approx 15,000 tons would have been produced prior to this
period.
http://www.sharelynx.net/Charts/SumWGP.gif
Most all of this gold still is in existence today.
135,000 tons = 4.34 billion ounces

Now when compared to the silver stocks available we see a
different situation.
http://www.sharelynx.net/Papers/SilverStocks.htm
Unfortunately I can't find totals for world silver production
going back as far in time to
compare to & chart.
But with the TOTAL US STOCKS topping out at approx 5.9 billion
ounces ( in 1942
)
We can see that silver stocks used to outweigh gold stocks by
a decent amount.

Now it appears that silver stocks would run at 25% or less of
gold stocks.
4 billions ounces of gold to 1 billion ounces of silver -
presumably less.
With CBs holding ( reputably ) 35,000 tons of gold ( 1.1
billions ounces ) in stockpile
This dwarfs the currently known US silver stockpiles of approx
112 million ounces (
10% )

The table has turned dramatically and the position keeps on
expanding.
Gold's deficit can readily be covered by CB's topping it up.
Silver's deficit is rapidly removing all and every stockpile
never to be seen again.

There is a vast difference between silver and gold.
Silver has a high industrial demand which in many cases
removes the metal from
circulation forever.

Methinks silver - Tears of the Moon - will one day do a
palladium....

Galearis

(05/03/2001; 09:33:07 MDT - Msg ID: 52975)

Oops, hit the enter key in error. The other important chart on silver....

http://www.sharelynx.net/Papers/SilverStocks.htmWhen compared to the gold supply chart, this one on silver is eloquant, indeed. Ted Butler et al are wholly correct in their belief system.

G.

Tree in the Forest

(05/03/2001; 10:08:12 MDT - Msg ID: 52976)

j'Bear

No apology needed sir as no offense is taken. I love a good joust! I wonder how the price of hamburgers in Moscow compares to here in the US? Anyone care to arbitrage the price difference in McDonald's hamburgers? Perhaps a "golden" (arch) opportunity! As to free markets, Goldenrod at GE expresses it best:

�Free Enterprise?�
()
May 03, 11:05
�Free Enterprise and Free Markets. The Twin Myths Roll on into the Twenty-first Century.

Ask the average American Joe or Joan what he thinks of OPEC and the most probable answer you will get is: "Not very much!"
Then ask him why?, and he or she, will tell you it is a cartel which, with the connivance of Big Oil, manipulates the price of crude, so that he, (let's be chauvinistic and let he stand for both male and female!), Joe Blow, is gouged at the pumps and if the free market place was allowed to take its course, he would be a lot better off in the pocket!
Now, Joe wouldn't put it quite that way, but, link the bits between the swear words and the above would be a rough translation!
Well Joe. Wake up and smell the coffee! Between you and me, there is no such thing as free enterprise or free markets. The price of practically everything is either manipulated up or is manipulated down.
Look at what a supposed free market has done to everything that the North American farmer produces! The cost of each item that goes into the production of any crop, except the sweat off of the farmer's brow has relentlessly advanced over the years, whilst the world price for the item has, except for very transient periods of damage wrought by Mother Nature, steadily dropped.
How does the American farmer survive these adverse conditions and by the skin of his teeth, stay in business? Well, perhaps the 28 BILLION handed out and reluctantly accepted by independent farmers, last year alone, might give you a clue! Some free enterprise system, some free market system!
We all know about gold and silver and how the free market allows those two metals to trade freely on the open market.
Oil not very long ago was trading at $10 a barrel, and the pundits could see it trading at $5 a barrel, as they said "into the foreseeable future", and, what was worse, said so with equanimity! Two to three years of $5-$10 dollars a barrel oil would have seen the US oil and gas industry down the tubes, a toilet deposit! If such a low price, by some aberration of the paper markets, could have been kept in place for that long. So much for free enterprise!
It was an OPEC cartel that saved the bacon for the U.S., and averted what would have been one of the most calamitous implosions in the energy field since man discovered fire!
It is not that free enterprise and free trade do not represent the best way to go in this modern world. It is that we have not had, for a long time, such entities, in a workable, non-manipulated modality to find out!
�Goldenrod.

USAGOLD

(05/03/2001; 10:30:33 MDT - Msg ID: 52977)

Today's Market Report

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlNews & Views complete and on way to printer. With that major project out of the way, I'm back in the saddle again. Extended Daily Market Report today, available to all at the Daily Market Report page (linked above). Includes long term gold graph.

"Something's afoot in the gold market. . . ." Ian McAvity

Deja vu all over again?

Old Yeller

(05/03/2001; 11:00:41 MDT - Msg ID: 52978)

Scary stuff from Fredbear

http://www.prudentbear.com/boards/user/non-frames/message.asp?forumid=4&messageid=44594&threadid=44594
There's lots happening out there'so much conflicting info to absorb.Now,get a load of this.

The banking/central bank fraternity scares me,they have created this situation;this end game looks plausible to me.

Buy gold'sell FRNs,don't let them win.

Tannehill

(05/03/2001; 11:05:17 MDT - Msg ID: 52979)

What if?

I had a strange thought at work yesterday, "we would truly know that gold was dead, if the BOE held and auction and there were no takers." Since we don't know whom the buyers are, what if the buyers just stayed home? I suspect they didn't like getting paper chits at the last auction anyway...

I can just see the headlines

**********BOE AUCTION UNDER SUBSCRIBED, GOLD DEAD!*************

*****Goldugs scramble to unload their gold at $200/ounce to buy Tech stocks*****

Hang in there, I suspect the volatility will be enoromus, a major push to the downside that will scare the pants right off of us.

that's all from Tannehill

Old Yeller

(05/03/2001; 11:29:04 MDT - Msg ID: 52980)

The latest from the ECB

http://www.afxpress.com/afxpress2/html/story_16234.xml
The euro,after breaking through .90 after Uncle Al's cut'seems to be treading water just below that level.My feeling is the market does not take their rate cutting inflexibility seriously.Especially when the French finance minister appeared to side with the US and the IMF on that issue.

Stability and purchasing power of the currency continue to be the overriding goal here.Press on regardless,boys,tune out the whiners.

Thanks to nomercy at Kitco for the link.

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/03/2001; 12:48:22 MDT - Msg ID: 52981)

You've been waiting for this one! An offer that's sure to go fast.

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.htmlWe've supplied you with gold for your kingdom, now you may select your queen!

Better still, there's no need to stop at just one. Get you some!

Netking

(05/03/2001; 13:00:01 MDT - Msg ID: 52982)

Tree In the Forest - Mac'Dollar

Tree in the Forest(52976)
You write: "I wonder how the price of hamburgers in Moscow compares to here in the US? Anyone care to arbitrage the price difference in McDonald's hamburgers? Perhaps a "golden" (arch) opportunity!"

Reply - I take it Sir Forest you saw the recent GE post someone had taken from the Economist magazine re: The value of the Big Mac in USD in different parts of the world. Quite a serious economic study that comes out each year. George S. apparantly reads it, saw it and hesitated before embarking on a Euro/USD play as he got a contrary signal, he went ahead anyway the story goes...and "took a bath" on his currency postion, oh dear how sad never mind.
The latest reports conclusion?...apparantly the AUD & NZD(the most undervalued)needing to make up the report suggested about 40% against the USD... Ouch!

barnacle bill

(05/03/2001; 13:05:10 MDT - Msg ID: 52983)

$2500 gold

To All:

Last week on this site or Gold-Eagle was a message about an article in Forbes. The article had something to do with gold at $2500.00 wasn't that far-fetched after all.

Does anyone know the publication date?

Barnacle Bill

R Powell

(05/03/2001; 13:38:07 MDT - Msg ID: 52984)

Tannehill or anyone in the know

Tannehill mentioned (52979) that the last BOE auction was settled with paper. I heard rumors of the same but never any solid confirmation. Is this indeed true?
Galearis, your earlier post refering to Sharelynx's link to silver stocks drawdowns is good information, thanks. Sector also mentioned it at G-E with due credit given to you.
Old Yeller, thanks for the heads-up and link to Fredbear's post at Prudentbear. Either Fredbear gets around or there are many Fredbears. I see him in many places.
Peter Asher/ Black Blade, the bursting of the debt bubble will be mightier than the dot coms, no? Not yet, though, I'm still getting credit card offers in the snail mail almost daily.
Rich

TheStranger

(05/03/2001; 13:50:49 MDT - Msg ID: 52985)

R Powell

Below is an email exchange I had with the Bank of England after the last sale. The "Stranger" pseudonym was not used in the original correspondence.

Gentlepersons:
Please verify that the gold auctioned by the bank this week is being transferred in physical form and not just in the form of receipts. I am concerned that, due to leasing, the bank is unable to come up with bars that are free and clear for delivery.
Thanks for your attention to this request.
Sincerely,
TheStranger

************************************************************

Dear Mr Stranger:

Individuals who have bought gold through the Bank's gold auctions can decide on their own settlement arrangements, the Bank is content for them to do either, physically transfer the gold elsewhere or via a book entry transfer. These arrangements were set out in our Information Memorandum at the following address
http://ntfm258.facility.pipex.com/auctnt37.pdf

The credit risk in gold deposits is managed in exactly the same way as credit risk in other products (eg dollar deposits or interest rate swaps). For more information on this visit the management of credit risk section in the foreword to the EEA accounts available on Her Majesty's Treasury website at
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/docs/2000/eea4wd.html

You may be interested to know that the National Audit Office concluded that the UK had achieved value-for-money in the gold sales programme.

Yours sincerely

Malcolm Shemmonds

R Powell

(05/03/2001; 14:26:54 MDT - Msg ID: 52986)

two fer day

POG was up and the all-important lease rates were also higher but the XAU was down about three and one half percent.
POG is starting to display a nice, gradual uptrending motion. Perhaps this will get noticed by the chartist, money managers. They'll see something like that and think, "the trend is my friend" and jump on board with long futures positions. Maybe?
Rich

R Powell

(05/03/2001; 14:30:18 MDT - Msg ID: 52987)

The Stranger

BOE settlement Thanks!!

Lafisrap

(05/03/2001; 14:51:37 MDT - Msg ID: 52988)

COMEX gold and silver warehouse stocks-May 3

http://www.futuresource.com/news/news.asp?story=i4147121078467035137
13,567 ounces of gold were added to COMEX gold stocks today (~+1.6 percent). See link for details.

Charts of COMEX gold and silver stocks at:
http://www.sharelynx.net/Markets/Charts/CMX-AU-Stockpiles.htm
and
http://www.sharelynx.net/Markets/Charts/CMX-AG-Stockpiles.htm

Tom

(05/03/2001; 15:09:18 MDT - Msg ID: 52989)

barnical bill - Forbes Gold $2500!!!

http://www.forbes.com/forbesglobal/00/0724/0314048a.htmForbes Magazine Capital Markets
July 24, 2000
Even as Alan Greenspan frets about inflation, most investors have given up on hard assets. Leigh Goehring keeps the faith.
Gold At $2,500?
By Susan Kitchens
Leigh Goehring manages over $400 million worth of metals, energy, and paper stocks for Prudential Investments in Newark, New Jersey, and manages them well. Over the past five years, his Prudential Natural Resources fund has returned an annualized 10.9% --modest compared with the S&P 500's 24.2%, but impressive considering the depressed state of most hard-asset prices during that time. Last year Goehring outpaced the S&P by 24 percentage points. So far this year he's ahead by 15 points.

What excites Goehring these days? That most unfashionable of metals: gold. "I am a raging bull when it comes to gold," he declares. "In times of inflation, people always end up just gravitating to it."

But hasn't the information revolution led to vast productivity increases that have, in turn, consigned inflation to yesterday's fears?

Goehring doesn't see it that way. Despite the fact that he is dealing in what he calls "an out-of-fashion industry," he thinks raw materials still make the world go around, and that the fall of the Soviet Union left the world awash in cheap commodities.

Now, however, Russia is beginning to develop again. It will consume much of the commodities it has dumped on the world market--and this at a time when demand from Japan and other commodities-hungry Asian countries is on the rise again.

Goehring: "The period where the U.S. economy could expand without fear of inflation is quickly coming to an end." He recommends that every investor hold as much as 20% of his or her overall portfolio in commodity-related stocks.
In making the case for gold, Goehring points to the relationship between the price of an ounce of gold and the level of the Dow Jones Industrial average. Over most of this century, the Dow traded at eight times the price of gold. As recently as 1980, when gold spurted to $800 an ounce, the Dow and gold were at parity.
But today the Dow/gold multiple is 44, an all-time high. "This ratio has stretched too far," Goehring insists. "At some point it has to snap back and even out."

In theory, Goehring says, the price of gold could go as high as $2,500 an ounce. "If all of the dollars in circulation (currently $560 billion) were backed with gold, the implied price would be about $2,500." Goehring concedes that central bank-selling of gold makes $2,500 an ounce unrealistic anytime soon. But equally unlikely, in his view, is a Dow/gold ratio that remains seriously askew. "In the next ten years, something will cause gold to rebound sharply. We can't be sure exactly what, but something will happen."

The best way to play gold, Goehring says, is with shares of mining companies. His favorites are Newmont Mining, in the U.S., and South Africa's Harmony Gold Mining. He likes Newmont for its promising new Yanacocha mine in Peru. Harmony, he notes, has been successful at buying marginal mines, cutting costs and increasing the productivity of its work force.

Goehring is high on aluminum, too. In 1989 the former Soviet Union satisfied a mere 1% of the Western world's aluminum consumption. With the FSU's collapse, that ratio jumped to 11%, and prices collapsed from $3,260 per metric ton in 1988 to just over $1,000 per metric ton by 1993.

Today aluminum fetches $1,580 a metric ton. Goehring predicts it will shoot to $4,400 a metric ton in the next five years, as Russia's internal demand grows. "Once Japan starts to grow again, there's going to be another big, one-time increase in demand, just as the supply starts to shrink."

Goehring's pick for aluminum companies? Texas-based Kaiser Aluminum Corp. Platinum? Palladium? Goehring likes them. The automobile industry, which needs both platinum and palladium for catalytic converters, has been consuming 9.5 million ounces a year. Platinum's price is already at an 11-year high of around $580, and Goehring expects the price to continue to go up. With Russian inventories shrinking, Goehring predicts a global shortage of the metal. "Palladium has some of the best supply-and-demand fundamentals out there. The price is going to skyrocket." Stillwater Mining, based in Columbus, Montana, is Goehring's top choice for exposure to platinum and palladium.

The price of oil, already up 246% in the past year, is headed higher, Goehring forecasts, as demand from China, India and other big emerging markets climb, and proven reserve estimates have been grossly overstated. Approximately 40% of Goehring's fund is invested in oil-related companies, with most of that in oil service companies. He especially likes Aberdeen-based Stolt Offshore, a contractor to the offshore oil and gas industry, and Bouygues Offshore, a subsidiary of France's Bouygues Group that's listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
Say this for Leigh Goehring, he practices what he preaches. "My money is where my mouth is: 100% of my personal portfolio is in commodity-related investments," he says, pulling out a recent bill for the storage of his personal gold and silver bullion holdings.

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/03/2001; 15:22:54 MDT - Msg ID: 52990)

Fed adds $10.75 billion in temporary reserves to banking system today

Of this, $2 billion were via 28-day Rp's, $5.25 were via six-day Rp's, and $3.5 were added via overnight repurchase agreements.

Further, the Fed indicated it would also add permanent reserves through the purchase of inflation protected U.S. Treasuries for Friday delivery. The size of the operation was not indicated.

barnacle bill

(05/03/2001; 15:38:53 MDT - Msg ID: 52991)

Gold at $2500

To: Tom msg.#52989Thank you so much for posting the article.
You saved me a good deal of time.

R Powell

(05/03/2001; 15:58:30 MDT - Msg ID: 52992)

"Futures" magazine article

Somewhere in the recent past week or so, somewhere in the Kitco-Gold-eagle-Usagold tri-forum area, I read that the May issue of "Futures" would have an article concerning gold. I believe Uptick reported this and knew of it as he is the author of what I now see on page 26, "Precious metals: Bulls still playing the waiting game".
Haven't read all of it yet but did notice the line, "perhaps no other market has advocates who are as emotionally involved as does gold." Do you suppose Uptick is familar with Farfel?
The magazine lists www.futuresmag.com as it's site but I don't know if the article will be there or just subscription advertisement. I get the publication for free- a present from my broker. First Moutaingold and now Uptick. We live among celebrities!
Rich

slingshot

(05/03/2001; 16:41:32 MDT - Msg ID: 52993)

Turning the Corner

Auspec#52946 Tannehill# 52979 Solomon Weaver # 52949 Auspec, read same editorial. Wonderful information.
Tannehill. Goldbugs scramble to unload gold at $200/ounce to buy TECH STOCKS? Scare the pants right off us?
I am more of a pesimist than an optomist ruling on the side of caution. Well how about this Headline!

Gold Drops to $ 100.00 Per Ounce, Bullion Dealers Beginning To Find It Hard To Meet Demand!

That headline sounds a little out of balance. There are two ways to take this statement. One that it is completly BOGUS.
Two, should it happen Gold at $100.00 will be a flash in the pan. It can only rise. The demand and supply will rule the day.
So, my topic heading "Turning the Corner" is somewhat of the prelude to the above headline.
Over the past 8 months I have had conversations about Gold. You would have thought I had a bad case of Smallpox.
Now, To my Delight, more people are talking about Gold and Silver. When they ask me questions about PM's I just refer them to USAGOLD and especially the Forum.
As to why they have been asking questions? Gasoline is up. Groceries are up. Looking to preserve wealth.
You see I thought these people were HARD CORE JOE SIXPACKS! That really shocked me. But $100.00 an ounce as compared to Tannehill's $200.00 per ounce. Pure speculation now. If all these BOOMERS are somewhat straped for cash with the debt they have run up. Wouldn't they jump at the chance to fit it their budget a few ounces of gold at that price? Producing the demand and the rise in price of gold.
To me it is a win/win situation considering what the price of gold is now. Even if gold went to $100.00/ounce the bounce I believe would be awesome. So, fellow Goldbugs KEEP your SKIVIES ON. (OLD NAVY SAYING)
SOLOMON WEAVER , A True Knight and a Gentlemen.

Slingshot

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/03/2001; 17:24:38 MDT - Msg ID: 52994)

No chance for Argentine "dollarization" now. Overwhelming support shown form euro plan.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010503/n03273930_4.htmlBUENOS AIRES, Argentina, May 3 (Reuters) - Argentina's Economy Minister Domingo Cavallo lauded on Thursday the "overwhelming" support from Congress's lower house to add the euro alongside the dollar in the peso's 10-year-old currency peg system.--------

Following a vote with 138 in favor versus 16 against (with 13 abstentions), Cavallo told reporters, "It (the euro plan) is a key piece of the economic program to bring stability to Argentina."

The dollar has now lost another incremental leg of past support.

Tree in the Forest

(05/03/2001; 17:50:35 MDT - Msg ID: 52995)

Silver & Kodak

I had an interesting conversation today with someone who knows a lot about Kodak's silver sources. Definitely an insider. VERY inside. Well actually it wasn't too interesting because he wouldn't tell me much. These are company secrets. But I did learn one thing. I thought (and perhaps most of us thought) that a large silver user like Kodak would get all of their silver directly from the mines. Not so. They have a diversified set of sources including mines, smelters and bullion dealers. He didn't use the word bullion banks, but I think he was referring to the bullion banks as they are after all bullion dealers. I asked about Comex. He wouldn't say too much there but he did allude to the fact that the physical dealers they used also played "COMEX paper". He described them as "reliable bullion dealers". Hmmm. Wasn't Handy & Harmon a "reliable bullion dealer"?

USAGOLD

(05/03/2001; 18:45:09 MDT - Msg ID: 52996)

T.Remital. . . .Tribute to a friend

I wanted to make note of this comment by GATA's Bill Murphy:

"What was not was that The Gold Cartel could not take
gold below unchanged on the sell-off. Somebody was there
to take them on. Those somebodys have been there for
weeks. Quietly, some big boys are making a move on gold.
One little positive clue after another is showing up
that appears to be telling us something is "up."

I don't know how many of you remember T.Remital who posted here in the early days. Mr. Remital until his retirement was one of the top working experts on gold in the world at the top levels of both the U.S. government and in the private sector on Wall Street -- a brilliant man, a patient mentor, and a friend. Most of us didn't know who he really was because of his simple humility and humanity when posting here. He just liked being one of the group. He told me to watch gold stocks (the XAU) carefully at turning points in the gold market because the deep-pocket insiders will move that market before the gold price itself moved, and they might be moving it on knowledge the rest of us probably don't have. That's why the Murphy statement is intriguing. He said that strong movement in the XAU was the result of big money betting on a higher gold price. Unfortunately, T's health is not what it should be. The last time I talked to him (several months ago) he told me that gold was staging for its biggest move since the 1970s -- that the dollar-SDR-fiat money crowd could no longer hold the line. I miss our conversations, my friend, and miss your regular input.

Keep in mind that all of this is one man's opinion. Those who bet on it do so at their own risk. None of us know what's going to happen. Let's just say that more than one old-timer in the gold wars is taking the lay of the land with a half-smile on his face. The conversations at the FOMC published by James Turk, Reg Howe, et al -- only verify what we've known for a long time -- far from the barbarous relic of past monetary regimes, as some have described it, gold plays a critical role in every serious money-man's repertoire. You can take that one to the bank -- not the bullion bank of course (smile).

Black Blade

(05/03/2001; 18:52:30 MDT - Msg ID: 52997)

U.S. Energy Sec'y warning rockets U.S. gasoline, oil

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010503/n03292876_3.html
NEW YORK, May 3 (Reuters) - U.S. gasoline prices sprinted on Thursday after U.S.Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham warned summer gasoline prices could top last summer's record prices.

Black Blade: Along with higher unemployment, declining earnings and consumer confidence, nervous investors should begin to look for safe havens such as gold as the energy crisis worsens and the economic situation deteriorates. A sign of change is that tonight Sen. Diane FineSwine (D-CA) is now talking of increased energy production - soon she will be eating caribou and wearing baby seal fur.

slingshot

(05/03/2001; 18:55:35 MDT - Msg ID: 52998)

Tree In Forest Msg #52995

Hello Tree in Forest,
I have read many of your post and I'm always interested in your point of veiw. So I have a question for you to ask your insider. Will KODAK be able to acquier enough silver for their film production or will the flight to poors mans gold overcome industrial requirements. Subsequent will brokers sell industrial or to small time investor first?
Which way will the Silver flow?
Slingshot

Black Blade

(05/03/2001; 19:04:06 MDT - Msg ID: 52999)

California says needs U.S. help on power crisis

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010503/n03324214.html
Snippit:

WASHINGTON, May 3 (Reuters) - A California energy official on Thursday said federal intervention is needed to cap the sky-high price of wholesale electricity in his state, even as consumers conserve more power and more plants come on line to cope with peak summer demand starting this month. The plea from Richard Sklar, a senior energy advisor to California Gov. Gray Davis, came on the same day the Bush administration announced new energy conservation measures for federal offices on the West Coast.

Black Blade: The Grasshoppers come on their knees with hat in hand as the energy crisis becomes a burden. Even so it is expected that there will be about 35 days of rolling blackouts in Kalifornia. The state legislature is expected to pass a "Windfall Profits Tax" and to order the out of state power generators to reimburse the Grasshoppers for "price gouiging." Yeah, that will give incentive to the out of state power providers to continue selling power to the state. "�and they played, sang, and danced all summer�"

Tree in the Forest

(05/03/2001; 19:13:59 MDT - Msg ID: 53000)

slingshot

I think silver (or anything for that matter) will flow to whoever offers the highest price and/or to big users first. Kodak is a member of the Silver Users Association which Ted Butler has discussed at length. They are located in Washington DC the better to lobby and strongarm the government into favorable policies for their members. Interestingly though, they were helpful in lobbying Congress to have precious metal tax rates reduced to match other capital gains rates. So they aren't all bad. My "contact" at Kodak is not a friend, merely a contact. I will talk with this person again when the market reaches a crucial juncture. That may not be long now.

USAGOLD

(05/03/2001; 19:15:54 MDT - Msg ID: 53001)

Black Blade and All . . . .California Dreamin'

I want to first of all thank you for the extraordinary contribution here. I have talked to a number of USAGOLDers who always ask "Who is this Black Blade?" Want you to know that your efforts are greatly appreciated.

One of the advantages of having a job like mine is that I get to talk to people from all over the country (the world really), and get to feel the pulse on the essentially human level.

I would like to open the door to our California posters and lurkers and to boot up, drift casually to the "Post a Message" prompt and give to us straight and simple what's happening out there from the "man on the street" (or "stuck in the skyscraper"). I have heard some incredible stories and I assure you, the rest of the country is not getting the whole story. Here's where the internet plays an essential role: Let us know what's going on "on the Coast," because what's going on there could very well be in all our futures.

I know this might be a little off topic. . .but it all comes back to gold -- systemic risk from everyday people unable to cope with extraordinary energy costs, like the small print shop with the $4000 per month utility bill, or the wealthy homeowner with the $12,000 light and gas bill. (Thanks VdT).

There's more where that came from. . . . .

Let the people know. . . . . .

Black Blade

(05/03/2001; 19:16:29 MDT - Msg ID: 53002)

Natural Gas Price Higher In California, Lower Elsewhere

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/010503/2324_2.htmlSnippit:

In Southern California, where demand for gas from the troubled electric generation sector continues to keep spot prices well above other market areas, the average monthly spot price for May rose 19.7% to $14.97/MMBtu from $12.51 in April. Spot prices there are 394% higher than in May 2000 when the average was $3.03. ``Except in California, spot-gas prices declined this month largely because there has been so far very little heat-related gas demand from power generators. That, in turn, has given gas utilities
a chance to inject healthy volumes of gas into storage for next winter, which takes a lot of pressure off the market,'' said Kelley Doolan, natural gas market specialist for Platts and chief editor of Inside FERC's Gas Market Report. ``For California, prices rose mostly on speculation that there simply will not be enough gas at some point in the months ahead to meet the needs of both the power generators and companies buying for storage.''

Black Blade: It should be noted that Kalifornia's problems also include an extremely high tariff on NG piped in on unregulated pipelines and NG. There is also the political and economic risks associated with selling NG and power to Kalifornia. Therefore costs are higher in the state. Small businesses in the state are now in severe distress and Silicon Valley is worried as more companies consider relocation outside of the state. This situation will continue to pressure the state's economy and will surely spread as political solutions are enforced rather than the free-market. Looks like "gold" lifeboats will come in handy.

Tree in the Forest

(05/03/2001; 19:26:17 MDT - Msg ID: 53003)

Kodak silver

I should add one more thing. He was unwilling to be specific regarding the frequency of physical silver deliveries to their facility. Kodak has stated publicly that they have "purchased" enough silver for 2001. However, the question remains whether they have all of this silver on site or just promises of delivery. My bet; they don't keep more than a quarters worth of physical silver on site and probably not even that much. So what they have is "paper" promises. Keep in mind these guys use a lot of silver. They must have some kind of storage facility on site but...well at this point I am speculating! LOL! I never do that! Even if they have a 6 month supply they'll need more physical come end of June. We shall see.

USAGOLD

(05/03/2001; 19:40:36 MDT - Msg ID: 53004)

Randy. . . .Argentina

It is the dollar, not Madonna, singing the refrain. More and more, I think we will see countries hedging their reserves with both currencies. If nothing else, it's good common sense. We should not lose sight of the fact that it was less than a year ago that Argentina was talking about "dollarization." What has changed?? Goldization would be even better -- the third leg on the monetary stool. Sometimes we forget what the bottom line is on the euro. Consider for a moment if the Argentine Break spread (for instance) to Japan. Now when you start thinking like this, gold is even a better option because it truly is the currency without a country (and attendant monetary policies).

Also, couldn't help but notice that someone posted (Beesting, I think vis a vis Rep. Ron Paul), that von Hayek had posited a free gold concept long ago wherein gold would compete along side other currencies at the free choice of the saver. (Isn't that what the ECB is subtly suggesting?) I remind you that I mentioned a while back that in my opinion Hayek was the real heavyweight. . . .followed by Rothbard . . . ..The Austrians rated by MK, FWIW. Vindication . . . . thanks Beesting. I wish I could remember the gold advocate at a public forum years ago who shocked his audience when he said that he didn't think there was a reason for a gold standard in practical terms as long as savers could own gold. I know it shocked me (as a young proponent of the gold standard), but I never forgot it.

FOA, maybe you'd like to get in on this???

slingshot

(05/03/2001; 20:19:37 MDT - Msg ID: 53005)

Total Information Sharing.

USAGOLD MSG # 53001 Black Blade MSG.53002

Well its seems the tables are about to turn. We have poked a little fun at those Kalifornia prune and raison pickers.
I am sure at this link no one hold any malice against anyone. I call on ROCKGRABBER to come forth. I believe your words were sincere. Timing is critical.
To Black Blade; As we all at this forum have used the generic term Grasshopper as a derogotory comment as to the general populace of California. Myself included. Should at this time we refrain from the use of this term in order to
further our quest in the investmement in gold and our preservation in wealth. Still reserve the right to poke fun.

Yes, USAGOLD, Close ranks. (Military ORDER)

Slingshot

Chris Powell

(05/03/2001; 20:22:21 MDT - Msg ID: 53006)

Prospects strengthen for GATA African Gold conference

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/745We hope to unleash African on the
Exchange Stabilization Fund.

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by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

WW Oracle

(05/03/2001; 20:23:22 MDT - Msg ID: 53007)

@USAGOLD: "Goldization" for Argentina?

But they just sold their last driblets of gold -- to US! Thank you, MK.

USAGOLD

(05/03/2001; 20:45:40 MDT - Msg ID: 53008)

WWOracle. . . . .Argentina

They did sell all their gold, didn't they. Oh well. . .Sort of reminds me of BOE's letter to the Stranger, where we are told the Old Lady of Threadneedle St. "received value" for her gold. Yes, she did. "How much" and "what kind of" value are left open to question.

------------------

"Honey, why did you sell our house for $5?"

"I don't know why you're so upset, dear. After all, I did get value for it."

Onward, fellow goldmeisters. . . . . . ..

slingshot

(05/03/2001; 21:00:55 MDT - Msg ID: 53009)

T.Remital Msg 52996

Irish ToastTo Remital,

May you be in heaven a half hour before the devil knowns you've gone.
Slingshot.

auspec

(05/03/2001; 21:04:12 MDT - Msg ID: 53010)

Why Shares Move First

We frequently hear that gold shares move prior to a upward movement in gold, yet it is essential to nail down the reason for that initial stock movement regardless of how obvious it is, once reflected upon.
Two statements from different sources today tell the story:

1. USAGOLD #52996- "He {T. Remital} told me to watch gold stocks {the XAU] carefully at turning points in the gold market because the deep-pocket insiders will move the market before the gold price itself moved, and they might be moving it on knowledge the rest of us probably don't have." Thank you MK.

2. From Bill Murphy today- "I maintain my stance that we are days, weeks and, at worst, months away from some major fireworks for the price of gold."

"From a very savvy Caf� member who is very well connected in the gold industry:

"He also said he was told by a senior Goldman Sachs UK executive that something has changed in the gold market recently - more demand and less supply. Bullion bankers are buying gold shares." END

Comment-- Bullion bankers are buying gold shares! That's fairly inside wouldn't you say? So the early people into most any play are "smart money" &/or "inside information players". Fact of life. There have been questions and comments on this Forum as to WHO actually has been moving the TSE these last # of months, here's a good answer.
See, if you had the proper mentality to be an elitist and had no soul, you too could make the easy bucks w/o going to all this trouble to understand market dynamics. Thanks for considering,
auspec

auspec

(05/03/2001; 21:16:28 MDT - Msg ID: 53011)

Tree in the Forrest

Canuck Repost #48914 & 48916 {2-25-01}Sir Tree,
I believe all of our answers as to CB selling lie within this post of Canuck's. It should probably be laminated and put permanently on the computer! Thank you Canuck, Red Baron and ANOTHER!

Canuck (2/25/2001; 11:05:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 48914)
From the Red Baron
As a novice to gold discussions I highly recommend the 10 part essay from the Red Baron, LMBA: The expose located at Gold-Eagle, Digest. {http://www.goldeagle.com/golddigest/baron907.html}

To all 'newbies' and novices (as I) the author in a detailed discussion examines 'paper' gold, the link to oil and IMHO introduces ANOTHER.

ANOTHER's theory of gold for oil (oil and gold never move in the same direction) is an amazing concept.

From episode #9:

First, if the article is correct that the Saudis and other Arab nations have been receiving gold bullion as payment (as well as military hardware) for oil and for favours rendered in keeping the price of gold from rising (in spite of projection production peaks as early as 1999) then where can we look for evidence of gold showing up in the official statistics for the Middle East. Does the World Gold Council statistics provide such evidence that shows an increasing or constant flow of gold into the Middle-East coffers since 1987? Evidence might resolve on of the most nagging questions: where is the gold being sold by CBs going? Perhaps we have found the missing piece of the puzzle.

Second, if true, the US would have a particular interest in coordinating the funnelling of gold bullion into the Middle East in order to constrain the price of oil from rising to $40/barrel as it should be given the demand/supply situation in crude oil and maximization of Middle Eastern utilization capacities. The US wants to maintain the illusion that oil is not becoming increasingly scarce in order to avoid price inflation at home thus exploding the market bubble.....they want to avoid a 1973-74 crisis at all cost. Stability in oil prices may have come through past transactions of US treasuries to the Middle East in exchange for "price stability favours" but the Arabs increasingly have requested the real store of value: bullion. Thus the Americans may be actually orchestrating the gold sales of other CBs in the interests of "global oil price stability" objectives convincing the Australians and lesser players to sell their gold for the short term objective of containing a price rise in oil that the Saudis are under increasing pressure at home (Islamic pressures) to let go (as the Sheik suggests) .. Note that "officially" the major gold holders, the US, Switzerland, Germany and France (and most certainly England) have hung on to their CB supplies while other lesser players have been "convinced" to sell under the ruse that "gold no longer plays the hedge or security roll it once did."

Third, the LBMA is most certainly a critical player brokering the exchange of gold for oil trading (the Red Baron's plethora of LBMA exposes points to this reality). Recent revelations of daily volumes of 30 million ounces of gold trading daily at the LBMA in London (twice South Africa's annual gold production) may point to the increasing pressure on appeasing the Saudis (and other Arab nations) with gold to keep oil prices in check. The Rothschilds and other merchant banking players with an interest in gold (probably the Morgan Stanley group as well) are also involved in these daily deals. Indeed, a line is most certainly drawn between Washington/New York, London, South Africa and the Middle East (not necessarily in that order).

Fourth, based on superb analysis by Deutsche Morgan Grenfell on the relative purchasing power of the US dollar in terms of gold is worth analyzing in the context of the gold to oil price ratio. If the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar in terms of gold bullion has declined to a ratio of less than 0.100 in 1997 compared to gold's purchasing power of 2.000 then this suggests that the US dollar is grossly overvalued in terms of scarce resource (gold), that gold is grossly undervalued as may be oil.
Fifth, the ultimate irony is that the laws of demand and supply on scarce commodities like oil and gold have been "nakedized" or "nullified" by an illusion that has elevated an infinitely plentiful fiat currency ( the US dollar ) to mythical proportions. It is in this kind of world in which we transact in the so-called "market."

And from exerpts of ANOTHER, episodes 6-9:

To avoid a spiking oil price the Central Banks first freed up the publics gold thru the issuance of various types of "paper future gold". As that selling dried up they did the only thing they could, become primary suppliers! And here we are today. In the early 1990s oil went to $30++ for reasons we all know. What isn't known is that it's price didn't drop that much. You see the trading medium changed. Oil went from $30++ to $19 + X amount of gold! Today it costs $19 + XXX amount of gold! Yes, gold has gone up and oil has stayed the same in most eyes. Now all govts. don't get gold for oil, just a few. That's all it takes. For now! When everyone that has exchanged gold for paper finds out it's real price, in oil terms they will try to get it back
Gold is cornered. Plain and simple. No complicated theories, no options problems. The commodity value of gold was forced so low in paper currency terms that all of the new mined gold, going out some 10 years is spoken for. Between the third world buying physical gold and the jewelry industry ( same people buying ) there is none left for the oil states! They do value oil in terms of gold, but not IN the paper currency price of gold! How much is gold worth in terms of oil value? Just stop supplying gold to them in ultra cheep US$ terms and you will find out by watching the currency price of oil! In any event, LBMA has traded so much paper/oil/gold that any rise in the currency price of gold will implode them. The CBs must become the full primary suppliers of gold or the system as we know it is done.
One last note: No form of paper wealth will survive the financial crush once the CBs stop selling! NOTHING!
Well a funny thing happened right after the Gulf war ended. What looked like big money before turned out to be little money as some HK people, I'll call them "Big Trader" for short, moved in and started buying all the notes and physical the market offered. The rub was that they only bought low, and lower and cheaper. They never ran the price and they never ran out of money. Seeing this, some people (Middle-East) started to exchange their existing paper gold for the real stuff. From that time, early 1997 LBMA was running full speed just to stay in one spot! In other words paper volume had to increase to the physical volume on a worldwide scale, and that was going to be one hell of a jump. It could not be hidden from the news any longer. This was not far from the time that "Big Trader" said that "if gold drops below $370 the world would see trading volume like never before seen". The rest is history. Now the CBs will have to sell 1/3 to 1/2 of their gold just to cover what's out there
There is only one oil state that counts! ONLY one! They have made it very clear how important gold is to them. If they had started buying outright, gold would have gone to $5,000+ in days. And only a very few million ozs. would have been purchased! The message has been for some years, "we will accumulate thru the back door, using paper deals if you keep the price at or below the cost of production". Do this and oil will remain THE driving force of the world economy! FAIL THIS AND WE WILL PRICE GOLD IN DOLLARS AT THE TRUE VALUE OF OIL TO THE WORLD!

Amazing stuff. A long, long read but Red Baron lays this out well with ANOTHER"S grand finale. A prerequisite to this reading is the understanding of oil, it's reserves and 'swing share'.

Canuck.

P.S.: To the 'older' astute posters; who is 'Big Trader'? END

Comment- WOW {again}.
auspec

Peter Asher

(05/03/2001; 21:29:19 MDT - Msg ID: 53012)

USAGOLD (5/3/01; 19:15:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 53001)

Michael,did you miss this one?

Interview with a Grasshopper --Peter Asher (04/29/01; 15:06:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 52822)

Last weekend we were in Berkeley and the following is from a nephew who wishes to be quoted by his CB handle "Little Snoopy." Describing himself as "A formal Berkley Liberal in my twenties, now a Hayward Conservative in my forties" he had this to say.

"Deregulation: When Pete Wilson in the legislature in '95 deregulated the power industry, I thought it was a disaster because the power industry has to be a regulated service for the greater good of the state and all the people in it. The people being not only the customers, but also the businesses and the industries that require power for their production and services.

Similar to the deregulation of the airline industry, you have a few large corporations buying out the smaller mom and pop businesses. Therefore you have cyclical swings in the marketplace between outrageous prices and services for free, interruptions in service, and spotty market conditions that are unpredictable.

Breakup: When the legislature and the governor deregulated PG&E, PG&E set up two separate companies, with the larger corporation as the parent entity, and the smaller as the utility that provides the service to the state. In doing so, they shifted its wealth to the parent corporation and allowed the parent corporation to go out of state and buy power-generating utilities all over the country.

By shifting 80% of the wealth to the parent corp., the utility was left with the responsibility of power transmission and the maintenance of the power facilities after being gutted and left as an empty shell.

Two weeks ago, Grey Davis struck a deal with Southern California Edison to buy the utility lines as collateral, by paying or assuming Southern California Edison's debt to the power providers. In doing so, the state legislature and the governor have now assumed responsibility for power transmission lines in Southern California that are 20 to 30 years old and need high maintenance. These will need to be replaced within the next 10 years or so. Southern California Edison made out like a bandit. The legislature will have pay the utility company for the maintenance crews for the utility lines that the state now owns!

A third world example of what happens in power outages: In parts of Yugoslavia and Latin America, the factories, the banks and production facilities routinely shut down for hours at a time on a daily basis, during blackouts or brownouts.

This summer in California, we're going to face unpredictable, spotty blackouts and brownouts, sometimes lasting for hours if not days. They will happen when people least expect it, in unpredictable places. Parts of Silicon Valley will be blacked out, traffic lights will be out, freeways will come to a stop, and banks will close. We'll have to have people out there like during the New York Blackout with flashlights at every intersection.

The reason PGE does not want to tell you where the blackouts will occur is to prevent looters and other criminal elements who might say we've got a free ride in this area because the power will be out for the next six hours. If you have these kind of crises and no one knows where they will happen, the results will be totally unpredictable.

I work in a production facility where most of the machines are run by computer. When we are in a production mode, the computers are operating the machines. Most of the time, if the power goes off, we can hit the emergency stop button, we can stop the machine in the middle of the process and nothing happens. * When you are in a critical cycle, that is when the machine has to complete a full cycle before it completes, it may crash in a power outage, and you will not only lose the software, but perhaps also have an accident and break the tool and wipe out the part..* The production part you are working on could be a very simple component, or it could be a very expensive piece of hardware, (Ex, $3000 piece of titanium) in which case the moment the tool is ruined you have also lost thousands of dollars worth of work.

The same thing applies to people working on computers in the high tech industry, such as software, data processing or critical programs. When the power goes out, they lose everything. This is the real collateral damage the power outages will create, and no one will be able to predict it. There was a symposium this week on possible business repercussions to the Silicon Valley area in the event of major power outages. Some of the estimates for production losses run as high as forty billion dollars this summer. Our gas prices have gone from $1.75 to $1.95 in the last six weeks. A gas station attendant said it might go as high as $3/gallon. If that happens, the industries won't be able to afford it. The costs all eventually get rolled into what the consumer pays. That's us. And the poor people hurt the most, because they can least afford it.

This summer, July to October, we're going to be looking at major social disruptions in California."

Black Blade

(05/03/2001; 22:05:09 MDT - Msg ID: 53013)

Slingshot

The term "Grasshopper"(taken from Aesop's fable the "Grasshopper and the Ant") refers simply to all who do not take responsibility for preparation but would rather rely on others to provide for them. This does not mean that all Californians are Grasshoppers. Grasshoppers exist all over the World. Those here on the forum I would hope are "Ants" where they take responsibility for their own preparation. The problem with Grasshoppers is that they know that there are potential fundamental problems such as that Bull markets eventually come to an end, that there's an energy crisis, that the economy is not looking so good, etc., yet they do nothing to defend themselves and they believe that someone else will take care of things. The have to learn that the only people that they can rely on are themselves not others. The California Grasshoppers haven't built the proper power generating facilities and infrastructure that they need and yet they believe that it is the responsibility of other regions to serve as energy farms for their benefit. Grasshoppers expect the economy to boom forever, and should the economy go into a recession for example, they believe that it is the responsibility of others, "government, etc. to come to their rescue while they whine about how the rest of the world is so unfair to them. When they should prepare by having sufficient food, clothing, energy, investment portfolio insurance such as gold, etc. they only whine instead of taking action. We are about to enter into a "Brave New World" and the Grasshoppers will have to be dragged into it screaming and kicking or else suffer as a result. Those who make the transition and those who have prepared will be the survivors. Recent news stories and analyses suggest that we are in or slumping into a recession. History as a teacher demonstrates that those who have gold during times of uncertainty survive relatively unscathed. Who has gold? Grasshoppers or Ants? Cheers!

- Black Blade

Netking

(05/03/2001; 22:23:32 MDT - Msg ID: 53014)

Silver amount for next mint.

Can anybody confirm for me the actual amount of silver that will be purchased* by the US Mint on market towards the end of this year(?)for the next silver mint.

(*it has been publicly confirmed mint supplies have been used up with needed inventory to be purchased on market)

Black Blade

(05/03/2001; 22:44:39 MDT - Msg ID: 53015)

USAGOLD #53001 - All

Thank you. I am glad that the energy crisis and gold updates are reaching out. I guess that I could reveal some of my background though my position could be compromised if I get too revealing. I have worked in academia and private industry as a physical scientist for over 20 years. I have 2 advanced degrees and I have done research at one Northwest University, worked in exploration activities for both mining and energy concerns around the globe. I recently closed my office in Nevada and I am now concentrating my efforts to start up operations in the area of Natural Gas exploration in the Western US. I continue to keep contacts with colleagues who keep me apprised of current research in the sciences, and the economics and condition of both the mining and energy industries. And yes, I'm a repentant former California Grasshopper who reformed in the 1970's. I am now proud to be an Ant.

I believe that the current energy situation in California will continue to spread beyond the borders to the rest of the continent of NA. My Californian friends (both Grasshoppers and Ants) are a good study as I learn much of how they think about the current energy situation. Amazing as it seems, some believe that the crisis is contrived by the big bad energy Robber Barons, while others tell me that the energy situation is much worse than reported. Some even tell me that they believe that come summer, there will be daily rolling blackouts. And yet another friend who is a hydro-geologist for the state says that the low Sierra snowpack will seriously impact hydro-power generation this year. Similar situations exist throughout the Western region. US mining companies are experiencing high energy costs and many friends and acquaintances tell me that there could be several mine closures as long-term energy contracts begin to expire. Recently Newmont reported that the state of Nevada has guaranteed a reprieve from higher energy costs. We shall see. I too await to hear from our friend Rock Grabber, and what about PH in LA?

- Black Blade

slingshot

(05/03/2001; 22:50:50 MDT - Msg ID: 53016)

(No Subject)

Well Black Blade.
Thank you for your reply. the Grasshopper and the Ant is a very good story. Still I concur with USAGOLD that all information can be vital at this time.

There have been a few post that have not reach the forum.
Operator malfunction I persume.

For Rockgrabber, What's happening on the west coast?

Slingshot

working-kirk

(05/03/2001; 23:06:35 MDT - Msg ID: 53017)

Interview about the Fed

http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htmSome said they couldn't find the link

click on the link about and it will take you to financal sense web page. If you click on complete show or "Ask the Expert" for Wednesday and it should bring up real player

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/03/2001; 23:44:33 MDT - Msg ID: 53018)

This has been on our radar screens for a long time.

http://www.usagold.com/wgc.htmlJust one of many giant steps being taken these days. But meanwhile, the world's investors slumber blissfully unaware...

------From link above, courtesy of WGC-----

"The governor of the People's Bank of China, Dai Xianglong, has confirmed that China will launch its first gold exchange in Shanghai in the second half of 2001. The planned system of gold distribution will be abolished, with producers being allowed to enter the market directly. At the same time, the system by which retailers, wholesalers and processors have to apply for licences for gold transactions will also be scrapped. He also said that China would gradually relax restrictions on gold imports along with the country's foreign exchange reforms, but gave no firm timescale for this."

slingshot

(05/03/2001; 23:48:46 MDT - Msg ID: 53019)

Black Blade

A scientist for Twenty Years with Two Advanced Degrees.
Looks like we are in the same boat. Looking to preserve our wealth. Well Black Blade turnaround is fair play. I have been well schooled in thermodynamics as to the expansion or contraction of certain metal within a heat range and its properties to be exploited to the outermost envelope to extract the most effeciency. Can you guess what I do?

I perfer to be the Jester.

$300.00 Titaniun $ 96.000.000 my part.
slingshot

slingshot

(05/04/2001; 00:42:35 MDT - Msg ID: 53020)

Randy

Are we the only ones awake?
Slingshot.View Yesterday's Discussion.

Black Blade

(05/04/2001; 00:45:16 MDT - Msg ID: 53021)

Jobs Situation Signals Tough Times Loom

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010503/business_economy_leadall_dc_39.html
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - More Americans are lining up for first-time unemployment benefits and job cut announcements rose further as the world's richest economy stumbles, signaling tough times could be ahead for several months. ``I think that we are going to see more bad news on the economic front than good news probably over most of the summer,'' said David Resler, chief economist with Nomura Securities International in New York. ``I don't see what it is that is quickly turning things around.''

Black Blade: US unemployment figures come out this morning.

Slingshot - I'm not very good at riddles, so I give. What's the answer? You almost sound like a metallurgist that I know. He was always quick with riddles. ;-)

Black Blade

(05/04/2001; 00:58:34 MDT - Msg ID: 53022)

Frustrations Turn To Despair In Shadow Of Energy Crisis

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/sddt/20010503/lo/frustrations_turn_to_despair_in_shadow_of_energy_crisis_1.html
Snippit:

Sixty-five percent of small business owners in San Diego are worried that electricity rate hikes could force them to close their doors this summer, according to a survey conducted by the San Diego Business Improvement District Council.

Jimmy Sims, owner of Moveable Eats on Garnet Avenue, closed his restaurant's doors a week ago and is only taking catering jobs. After a year in operation, the business was growing fast but not fast enough to keep up with an energy bill that went from $800 to $2,200 per month.

Black Blade: And we are told that inflation is benign. Food and energy is not calculated in the PPI and CPI core rates, and the dubious voodoo statistical trickery of "seasonality" filters just add to the cruel joke. Then there is also "hedonic" pricing. Mr. Sims could probably substitute hot dogs for the filet mignon.

Peter Asher

(05/04/2001; 01:13:03 MDT - Msg ID: 53023)

@ Slingshot re-riddle

Are you reasearching super-conductor materials?

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/04/2001; 01:29:10 MDT - Msg ID: 53024)

For those who missed the related article cited yesterday by MK quoting Mssrs. Hathaway and Edelson

http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,842168-6094-0,00.htmlHathaway:
"Since the Latin American crises of the early 1980s, the Federal Reserve's response to market difficulties has been to bale out anyone who has made a bad investment. Now the Fed's bale-out strategy has gone too far. No longer are the losers from bad investments confined to lenders to foreign countries, bankrupt hedge funds or bad banks. It is the US public, which has been suckered into pouring its life savings into a dangerously overvalued stock market."

Edelson:
"...a strong dollar does not mean lower gold prices. If the dollar continues to remain strong or get even stronger, it's a darn good sign there are big problems elsewhere in the world, problems that could easily light a fire under gold."
"As for inflation, while I do believe it is coming on a worldwide basis as central banks try to reflate out of the trillions that have been lost in stocks, it too is not needed to get gold going."
---------------
You've sure got that right, Larry. It could very well happen in an order such that the physical gold liquidity dries up in the derivative-bloated bullion banking sector prior to the dollar collapsing under its own derivative-bloat as a reserve currency.

IF (a very big "if") the bullion banking sector can play the shell game of their lives in the absence of a lender of last resort, then they may possibly engineer a smooth transition whereby the price of gold rises for a BRIEF while against a dollar with vitality remaining. However, the one condition aggravates the other like the movement of pebbles in a rockslide. When the illusion is broken it'll all come down swiftly in a heap in the final momments of reckoning, trees included.

(Reply to Slingshot: I'd have to be 'alive' qualify as 'awake', wouldn't I? Feel free to call attention to those Queen Victoria gold Sovereigns while I catch some Z's, will ya? Just post the link and tell the group what a fine addition they'd make to the caches of King Sovereigns they must surely already have. Thanks!)

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/04/2001; 01:40:11 MDT - Msg ID: 53025)

Gads, that wasn't very clear at all.

You'd probably only know what I was implying if you could read my mind.

What I meant was that if the bullion banks were supremely blessed in their ability to satisfy their host of depositors with deft reallocations of a small supply of physical, then the brief price rise I mentioned was to be taken as a brief ORDERLY rise. Orderly for a brief time, that is, prior to the inevitable precipitation of the dollar's collapse and the moonshot for physical gold as the derivative instruments (paper) are abandoned as no means to an end (other than a hard lesson in counterparty default).

slingshot

(05/04/2001; 01:55:08 MDT - Msg ID: 53026)

fRUSTRATED

hOPE TO GET TO YOU SOON tEST

Black Blade

(05/04/2001; 02:26:39 MDT - Msg ID: 53027)

Gold Hedging Debate Still Furious

http://library.northernlight.com/FD20010503310000138.html?cb=0&dx=1006≻=0#doc
Snippit:

While hedging infused much-needed capital into the industry, it exaggerated an existing oversupply problem by adding ounces borrowed from central banks to newly mined supplies. You can't defeat a basic principle of economics " if you have more of something, you pay less for it. Making matters worse, an ancillary "paper" market in gold derivatives blossomed. Derivatives were intended to mitigate risk, but the lack of transparency in the market combined with an unspoken commitment by central banks to rescue firms that fall on their speculative swords " like Long Term Capital Management " has had the opposite effect.

Black Blade: The debate continues. I avoid the producers that sell forward and only have positions in a couple of unhedged (or very lightly hedged) miners. It is not necessary to sell forward production to be profitable. BTW, Barrick's losses were -$1.93 per share this time around and they claim to be successful hedgers. Hmmm... Physical gold in hand is arguably better for portfolio insurance and a good diversifier.

slingshot

(05/04/2001; 02:33:56 MDT - Msg ID: 53028)

(No Subject)

testSomething wrong

Black Blade

(05/04/2001; 02:34:00 MDT - Msg ID: 53029)

Newmont Mining CEO says gold demand strong

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010503/n0325475.html
Snippit:

ENGLEWOOD, Colo., May 3 (Reuters) - Gold prices may be at 20-year lows, but Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE:NEM) Chief Executive Officer Wayne Murdy, speaking to shareholders on Thursday, said he still sees reasons for optimism. ``Demand remains strong, production is falling and central bank selling and lending is expected to moderate in the future,'' Murdy told the company's annual meeting.

Black Blade: Time to load up.

slingshot

(05/04/2001; 02:50:50 MDT - Msg ID: 53030)

(No Subject)

Black Blade And Peter Asher.My apoligies I have been havinga bad time getting to post on this forum. Well Black Blade, I had a Beautiful explanation before it got lost. NOW IN SHORT TERM I BUILD JET ENGINES FOR THE MOST SOPHISTICATED AIRCRAFT IN THE WORLD. $3000.00 is a drop in the pan. How about $ 96000.00 per unit. Rest assure you getyour moneies worth
in the savings. I wish I was in the super conductor field Thank you Peter for your vote of cofidence.
Slingshot

Black Blade

(05/04/2001; 03:10:57 MDT - Msg ID: 53031)

U.S. coal shortage could spur summer brownouts

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010503/n27675175.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK, May 3 (Reuters) - Adding stress to an already frazzled power market, a nationwide coal shortage could spawn electricity brownouts in northeastern states and in the West this summer, experts said on Thursday. While coal provides the country with 51 percent of its power, years of industry underinvestment and record prices for competing fuels natural gas and fuel oil this year have pushed utilities' coal stocks to their lowest levels since 1974.

Black Blade: We are now in the midst of an energy crisis that threatens the US economy with shortages of hydro-electric and natural gas fired power plants. Now we must contend with a coal shortage. The coal industry has to contend with numerous environmental restrictions even though we have an abundance of coal deposits. This article focuses on transportation and infrastructure.

Slingshot - that certainly explains the $3000 titanium and $96000 per unit. If titanium wasn't mentioned I would have guessed something associated with temperature control. Cool! I wouldn't have guessed it. Take care. - BB

Netking

(05/04/2001; 03:47:29 MDT - Msg ID: 53032)

Silver - The Herald - Tribune reports on Silver

Herald Tribune reports on silver.

New use for silver discovered by the Herald-Tribune when Interviewing Mr Morgan of Silver-Investor.com.

This is one of the few main stream press articles to appear in quite some time...Don't miss it Feature Article on Silver in Newspaper.

The HT interviewed David Morgan of Silver-Investor.com along with many others, including Ted Butler, Franklin Sanders and the Silver Institute. Articles on silver do not appear in the main stream press very often, so do not miss it.. It will be available on Sunday 6 May 2001.

The following link should take you there on Sunday, http://www.newscoast.com/xwelcome.cfm enjoy!
regards Netking

slingshot

(05/04/2001; 04:12:41 MDT - Msg ID: 53033)

Black Blade.

Black Blade, Tonight has been one of those nights for me.

Let me explain about statetic metal. a block of metal is just a block till the purpose for which that metal is inteneded for is manufactured/cut/ molded for a specific purpose. The composition of that metal may have negative or positive to the application in which it will be applied.
Only the aplication of that material or part will prove to be acceptable upon installation into the parent component.

Thank you Black Blade and Peter Asher.
My post were lost but I wanted to give you both to think about.
Slingshot

Tannehill

(05/04/2001; 05:23:34 MDT - Msg ID: 53034)

Mint's Silver purchase -- Netking @#53014

Netking
You wrote: "Can anybody confirm for me the actual amount of silver that will be purchased* by the US Mint on market towards the end of this year(?)for the next silver mint."

Here is a link to the number of bullion coins minted by the US Mint since 1986.
http://www.stanford.edu/~clint/q/bullion.htm

So, silver bullion is typically 5 to 6 million ounces a year, add in silver proof sets, commenrative silver coins, etc. you may be talking about 7 million ounces a year, just a drop in the bucket. The Mint will not be a major buying force in the market. Although they will have to buy silver when ever orders come in for more coins, they don't have to buy it all at one time. The Mint sells as many coins as are ordered by their favored dealers, which then sells them to the public. If they get the 2 million ounces back from Handy & Harmon and scrape the bottom of the barrel, they may still have 1 year of silver left.

Where will the Mint get new silver you ask? Saw this over on Raging Bull Bulletin Board.

Good news for some US silver company??????

US Code: Title 31, Sec. 5132. Administrative
SUBTITLE IV - MONEY
CHAPTER 51 - COINS AND CURRENCY
SUBCHAPTER III - UNITED STATES MINT

(D) The Secretary shall obtain silver for coins minted under this paragraph by purchase from stockpiles established under the Strategic and Critical Materials Stock Piling Act (50 U.S.C. 98 et seq.). At such time as the silver stockpile is depleted, the Secretary shall obtain silver for such coins by purchase of silver mined from natural deposits in the United States or in a territory or possession of the United States not more than 1 year following the month in which the ore from which it is derived was mined. The Secretary shall pay not more than the average world price for such silver. The Secretary may issue such regulations as may be necessary to carry out this subparagraph."

Hope this answers your question

That's all from Tannehill

Henri

(05/04/2001; 05:37:50 MDT - Msg ID: 53035)

Victorias...Good Morning all

Cabo Wabo woozy
clink, clink, clink, clink

FredBear

(05/04/2001; 05:53:38 MDT - Msg ID: 53036)

NorthEast Republicans Set To Block Drilling In Alaska

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AOvIpjRZWTG9iYnlpFive Northeast Republicans in the Senate said they would oppose drilling in the refuge, making legislation vulnerable to a Democratic filibuster.

``There is a serious question of whether there are the votes,'' said Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Ted Stevens, an Alaska Republican who's been pushing the issue for years. ``We need to wait until the appropriate time. It could take years, it could be this year.''

The Bush administration, bowing to the congressional opposition, now touts other possible sites such as the Gulf of Mexico.

(Olympia, Senator from Maine) Snowe said she thinks that ``sends the wrong message.'' ``Conservation is a vital approach and one not to be ignored,'' she said. `I think that they'll have to come to terms with reality.''

FB: Reality?

Alaskans overwhelmingly favor drilling in the refuge, said Mark Myers, director of the state of Alaska's oil and gas division. This is in no small part because Alaska would receive 50 percent to 90 percent of the royalties.

FB: It's too bad state's rights no longer exist. Americans just do not get the message.

slingshot

(05/04/2001; 06:18:38 MDT - Msg ID: 53037)

(No Subject)

Topaz HelppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppTopaz, I Made a terrible mess. Somehing happen to my post in the weee hours and HE double- hockey sticks if I Can Figure it out. My post to Black Blade and Auspec Never appeared.
I am concerned because in the heat of the moment I can spark
dialog that needs to come to the light. They are a sounding board which brings things to light. To Randy and MK I feel
things are happening and I just can not get it out fast enough. Please be patient with court JESTER.

Slingshot

Black Blade

(05/04/2001; 06:38:11 MDT - Msg ID: 53038)

Rough day on Wall Street!

Big surprise in the unemployment numbers! Unemployment at 4.5% (highest since Oct. 1998), wages up 0.4% (wage inflation). Lost jobs in all sectors except energy. Markets are in freefall. Larry Kudlow is off in a corner crying ;-) Today could be very "interesting." Now they are talking a large rate cut from the Fed. The talking heads on CNBC look shocked!

Black Blade

(05/04/2001; 06:44:33 MDT - Msg ID: 53039)

The Raw Data!

8:30am 05/04/01 APRIL PAYROLLS -223,000 VS +21,000 FORECAST

8:30am 05/04/01 APRIL JOBLESS RATE 4.5% VS. EXPECTED 4.4%

8:30am 05/04/01 APRIL PAYROLLS DOWN 223,000 VS. EXPECTED 21,000 GAIN

8:30am 05/04/01 APRIL JOBLESS RATE RISES TO 4.5%, MOST IN 2 1/2 YEARS

8:30am 05/04/01 APRIL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS +0.4% VS. EXPECTED +0.3%

8:30am 05/04/01 AVG WORKWEEK STEADY AT 34.3 HRS VS 34.2 HRS FORECAST

8:30am 05/04/01 APRIL HOUSEHOLD SURVEY SHOWS 426,000 FEWER WORKERS

8:30am 05/04/01 APRIL FACTORY PAYROLLS -104K; SERVICE-PRODUCING -59K

Gold could get a boost as they run for cover.

slingshot

(05/04/2001; 06:47:48 MDT - Msg ID: 53040)

(No Subject)

Request permission to laugh.

Black Blade

(05/04/2001; 06:54:48 MDT - Msg ID: 53041)

April cruelest month in 10 years 223,000 lost jobs, unemployment rate rises to 4.5%

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?column=Economic+Report&siteid=mktw

Snippit:

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - The bottom fell out of the labor market in April. The economy lost 223,000 jobs in April while the unemployment rate soared to 4.5 percent, a 2 1/2-year high, the Labor Department said Friday. The job loss was the biggest in more than 10 years. The report blindsided economists, who expected a small gain of 21,000 jobs in April.

Black Blade: Larry Kudlow is now talking "Recession." 180 degree about face.

slingshot

(05/04/2001; 06:57:12 MDT - Msg ID: 53042)

(No Subject)

Did you
know after 26 weeks they are not on the unemployment scale? Wonder how
that figures Slingshot

Black Blade

(05/04/2001; 07:12:03 MDT - Msg ID: 53043)

USD Down Hard

http://www.mrci.com/qpday.aspThe USD is down hard. There are now calls for AG to hand out an emergency rate cut. These talking heads have gone into panic mode. Going to be "interesting times."

slingshot

(05/04/2001; 07:12:05 MDT - Msg ID: 53044)

(No Subject)

Three times to a posting error and I still do not know my mistake.

slingshot

(05/04/2001; 07:12:05 MDT - Msg ID: 53045)

(No Subject)

Three times to a posting error and I still do not know my mistake.

FredBear

(05/04/2001; 07:37:48 MDT - Msg ID: 53046)

Kudlow Kuotes

"Fed needs action in the gold market"

"1st qtr GDP was a phony rise"

"May will be worse"

agbull

(05/04/2001; 08:50:28 MDT - Msg ID: 53047)

Silver hits the mainstream Press

http://www.herald-trib.com/xwelcome.cfmThe Herald-Tribune will run a feature article on silver this Sunday May 6th. Use the link to read..

Tree in the Forest

(05/04/2001; 10:15:33 MDT - Msg ID: 53048)

auspec

Thank you for that very important refresher course sir auspec! I recall reading those passages when first I came to lurk in these hallowed halls. But I was a kid then! It's been sooooo long! I stand corrected...again! So let's see if we can now summarize:
1) First, they sheared the sheeple for gold by driving the price down and propagandizing them with the "worthless relic" routine.
2) Then they raped the miners by forcing them to sell at or below production cost.
3) Then when that wasn't enough, they strong armed smaller nations for gold.
4) Then the "Old Lady of Threadneedle St." began publicly auctioning off gold. They probably did get value. It was probably stolen gold so $265/oz was a good deal.
5) Finally, as this is still not enough, they have begun "selling" their own gold but I put selling in parentheses because it's just paper promises in exchange for physical and like the "custodial gold" at West Point, it will never actually be paid.
And all of this to support a bankrupt nation in receivership.
Does that about sum it up?
Truly, La Cosa Nostra has nothing on the good old US of A!
But let's step back a bit and look at a broader perspective. August 15, 1971. Nixon closes the gold window. The US is given 30 years to pay up. "Somebody" decides, hey no way we can or will pay this. Let's just live it up for thirty years and let the you know what hit the fan. 103 days and counting!

PH in LA

(05/04/2001; 11:18:59 MDT - Msg ID: 53049)

WHO THEY ARE. (A program note)

Auspec:

"WOW!" Indeed!

In your (msg#: 53011) it appears that it was Canuck? asking on 2/25/01, "who is 'Big Trader?'.

As garbled as it has all become, with Another's penchant for mysterious and thought-provoking comments, I would answer that the poster "Big Trader" was almost certainly the same poster we later came to know as ANOTHER. Those with enough patience to wade around in the Kitco search engine on a day that it is working would be able to find the original posts from 1997. They began with cryptic postings from "Big Trader" which were soon supplanted by posts from "Another Writer". Soon again after that the poster dropped the "Writer" from his handle and from then on posted simply as "ANOTHER". The content and style of all the posts strongly suggest that they all came from the same individual, although he never (that I know of) admitted openly to that conclusion. There was later some confusion and commentary posted about how ANOTHER's writing style seemed to vary from one day to the next. ANOTHER himself alluded to the fact that his words were sometimes edited by "one from the West" who tried to bring a more colloquial tone and style to his message. Soon after that FOA appeared and either admitted (or was assumed) to have been he who had sometimes proofread and/or edited ANOTHER's posts. FOA now seems to write mostly for himself based loosely on the THOUGHTS of ANOTHER and supposedly on a still on-going personal association with ANOTHER. With all the different currents swirling around the threads that all these individuals have woven, one must at least wonder at times if they are not all the same person. My own feeling has always been that such a ruse would be exceedingly hard to pull off as well as this has been done. My hat would be off to anyone who could manage it so masterfully. At the same time, I cannot rid myself of the nagging suspision that there is some purpose behind their efforts beyond a mere desire for a dissemination of information. I mean, why else would he/they maintain such an effort over such a long period of time? And with such unvarying persistance?

We'll probably never know!

Mr Gresham

(05/04/2001; 11:54:37 MDT - Msg ID: 53050)

Henri

Henri, I hear ya!

(I been thinkin'
I'll be clinkin'!)

(Henri, besides your recent "fishing stories" via FOA, were you ever on a long canoe trip along the Canadian border in your youth?)

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/04/2001; 13:22:22 MDT - Msg ID: 53051)

"A disturbingly sour attitude" among corporate executives: that's what is driving Fed monetary policy these days???

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010504/n04443620.htmlAccording to this article,
"Fed policymakers decided quick action was needed to change that mind-set before it could undermine a gradual pickup in economic growth expected later in the year......officials decided they could not wait until their next regularly scheduled meeting on May 15."
-----------
No matter how highly we've developed our intricate economy, at the root it largely rests upon the building blocks of confidence in the monetary unit.

So, we see a frightening element revealed along this line of thinking. What we have seen here is that when failing confidence in the economy itself is threatening to collapse the upper levels of structure, the monetary authorities will naturally attempt to bolster that upper level of economic confidence.

The big problem, however, is that they bolster this confidence in the economy at the ultimate expense of the deeper-level confidence in the monetary unit.

Now consider this. Unlike the global monetary structure that was in place only 30 months, there is now a viable alternative (free market gold reserves and euros) and the world therefore no longer needs to cling to the dollar through good times and bad. Suddenly, in this new monetary era, there are now dire consequences to be faced against such compromising use of the dollar as we are seeing by the U.S. monetary authorities.

Prepare yourself for the coming flood of small dollars with a lifeboat of physical gold.

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/04/2001; 13:35:20 MDT - Msg ID: 53052)

Centennial maintains regular access to many forms of gold coins and bullion, but....

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html...these rare beauties are just passing through -- sorta like a traveling museum exhibit.

Claim yours while the limited supplies last. (only 150 each)

[They are moving briskly, and I've already got mine!]

Netking

(05/04/2001; 13:59:38 MDT - Msg ID: 53053)

@Tannehill

Mr Tannehill (53034)
Many thanks for your info.

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/04/2001; 14:02:16 MDT - Msg ID: 53054)

*correction*

Normally I ignore these inadvertent blunders unless it significantly changes the meaning.

In msg# 53051 I posted, "Unlike the global monetary structure that was in place only 30 months,..."(etc)

However, this is what was intended:

"Unlike the global monetary structure that was in place only 30 months PRIOR,..." (etc)

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/04/2001; 14:45:56 MDT - Msg ID: 53055)

Looking for the perfect graduation gift?

http://www.usagold.com/jewelry/goldjewelry.htmlLook no further! Coins, pendants, moneyclips, tie tacks, and other gold coin accessories. Give Marie a call at the small order desk.

Belgian

(05/04/2001; 15:54:16 MDT - Msg ID: 53056)

Auspec and the Red Baron.

Arab oilers (not spoilers), secretely fostering, their Gold-mistress. Us (detectives), desperately searching for evidence of their unfaithfullness towards their oil-spouses.
Exciting isn't it ?

Can a ME oil-giant, convert, oil-dollars into physical gold ? Is there enough gold available to do this freely and totally unnoticed ? Have the Rothshilds as oil/gold traders, taken the necessary arrangements, to prevent gold from, trading freely ?

Official Goldholders(OGH) and a majority of (Big) private Goldinvestors (PGI), surely have many reasons, to agree with such a masterplan for future Re-Valuation of Gold. Of course, both for different reasons. OGH, keep the dollar-calf from changing into a golden calf and PGI, get plenty of time for additionnal accumulation at, you know what kind of prices. But, what interest do the goldproducers (GP) have in this masterplan ? What have they to gain, now or in the future with the Red Baron scenario ? They (GP) don't care about POO or Currency Depreciation ! Are you convinced they are too dum to see such a creative oil/gold - valuation play ? Are the GP, ignoring this for the altruistic benefit of maximum employment ? Why aren't GPs, providing the oilers with off record gold for POG's sake ?
And in this way helping OPEC to manage the POO for faster world dominance. A low POO for an extended period of time is preventing, non OPECers from investing in exploration and become completely dependant on OPEC.
SA-GP have converted gold for oil during the sanctions period.

Are the Goldproducers the ones who have to carry the full burden of the two other gold identities (OGH+PGI) ?
What do they get as a reward for being so flexible and cooperative ? Future dominance (the big five) through de-fragmentation ?
(defaulting small miners)

Anglogold (N� uno) latest statement, that CBs must be allowed to play the derivative game or otherwise risking to be confronted with outright massive goldsales...was instructive. Black Blade was so courageous to react on that statement (amusing). As if a POG at an 25 year LOW is the result of a constant derivative-appetite of central bankers with only 1/3 of aboveground gold and unknown proportion against remaining underground gold. The 3 goldplayers (OGH-PGI-GP), are not in synchronisation ? Goldproducers have much more future underground gold to defend. Or is the AU-statement giving evidence of the contrary ?
And emphasising Randy's : freely convertible but not freely tradable aspect of Gold ?

When having a close look at the POO-chart (30 years)...the least we can say is that it is a very un-natural pattern.
I would like to compare it with the pricing chart of a coke bottle or cigaret or men's haircut over the past 30 years.
These goods and services were surely freely tradable and not periodically capped for God know what purposes.
These charts will perfectly reflect the permanent Depreciating currencies, worldwide. POO and POG (include dollar-index) have both that dramatic un-natural aspect. Is that suggesting their relationship ?
Have politics already a long record of "creative" action on POO and POG ? And why are these lastest 6 years so different for both of them ? I can't find a constant inter-relation between these 2 world-rulers (gold/oil) for the full period of 30 years. Is this an indication that FAO is correct in his vision that we are on the eve of decisive Change (for gold and oil)?

And why would Anglogold stubbornly continue to promote gold as a commodity only ? Are private goldholders encouraged to optimise their goldholdings with derivative hulabaloo ?
Are we supposed to do the same thing with our homes or other tangible storages of wealth and certainty ?
Why is AU, "suddenly" so eager to talk about hedging (through miningweb) and suggesting to reduce their hedging ? Is the recent figure of 10.000 tonnes - SHORT, starting to sink through and installing some unrest ?

Isn't it remarqable that the 3 Big Goldplayers (OGH-PGH-GP) aren't saying anything that makes sense about gold...and that modest and humble individuals must come up with all kinds of gold-considerations ? Is that pathetic permanent global currency depreciation such a taboo for the main 2 gold philes (GP + PGH) ? And is "not enough gold" the reason why it is not freely tradable ?

Sir Auspec, you know my questions are only rhetoric. You just keep on provoqing more and more "toughts", wich I welcome enthousiastically. Thanks !

R Powell

(05/04/2001; 15:54:41 MDT - Msg ID: 53057)

Pour on some more credit

POG and the XAU both ended the day down slightly. Rates were mixed with the short term up, longer term down so we end the week with a miserly half point.
Interesting that the XAU went up at the open as fast as the Dow and Duck were going down. It certainly looked ominous early this morning with the Duck futures index locked limit down after the ugly employment numbers became public. Perhaps the Fed. can creat enough money to reinflate the bubble and keep debt service under control. Think so?? I'm still getting credit card offers and checks daily. At your limit? No problem, just cash the check for an automatic expansion of credit. No end in sight. Why do I bother to work??
Rich

Solomon Weaver

(05/04/2001; 16:12:21 MDT - Msg ID: 53058)

Investor sentiment and interest.....when it returns to AU and AG????

http://www.thebulliondesk.com/reports/prospector.htmJust an aside, I do find it interesting, and also incredibly annoying, that the precious metals have been so becalmed for so long. Today, many internet stocks were up 10 to 20% in the U.S. To look at the volatility of such equities and compare it to the precious metals is disconcerting for the long-term professionals in the marketplace. A $10 rally in gold, that takes 2 to 3 weeks is considered big time, while such moves occupy just hours in some sectors of the equities market. It is no wonder that, currently, with momentum investing the primary driving force of the markets that the metals are becalmed with very little investor interest.

Poor old Solomon

Solomon Weaver

(05/04/2001; 16:16:54 MDT - Msg ID: 53059)

Interview with Ted Butler

http://www.investmentrarities.com/04-17-01.htmlhttp://www.investmentrarities.com/04-17-01.html

Ted's index seems to be gathering dust.....but here is a link of a recent interview.

If you listen to James Cook in it...it almost seems like he is playing devil's advocate.

Poor old Solomon

Solomon Weaver

(05/04/2001; 16:46:34 MDT - Msg ID: 53060)

(No Subject)

Here I am again, back on the forum talking about the poor man's gold.....

Trail Guide....really love those walks on the trail...gold is like the mountain....silver is like a little lake in a shallow of the mountain....relflecting gold like a mirror.

I can think of a few numbers that show how little silver is...but to the Knights and Ladies who have a few coins in their purse....???

Worldwide production of Silver per year in the 1990s is approximately 500 million ounces. By $5 per ounce a mere $2.5 billion....and most of that was the cost of getting the silver out of the ground (almost no profits).....and since most silver is not primary, it appears on the books of a lot of mines as simply lowering the cash costs of mining lead, zinc and copper.

Wolrdwide production of Oil per DAY of 70 million barrels and $35 comes out pretty darn close to $2.5 billion also.

Both are commodities. Both are fairly "cheap", considering the value added they create when they "are used". Silver has been cheap these decades because there was a very large underground reserve in the USA (10 billion ounces)which could come into the market with little effort. Oil has been cheap these decades because there was a very large underground reserve in Saudi Arabia which could come into the market with little effort.

What would happen if the money that moves through the oil market in one day would move through the silver market in one year??? I don't mean the paper markets...

Poor old Solomon

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/04/2001; 16:55:52 MDT - Msg ID: 53061)

Fundamentals rule in the end

http://www.usagold.com/goldenchalkboard/gc_dow.htmlToday we received the most abysmal jobs report for March with the largest monthly loss of jobs in a decade, and as a result, the short-term Treasuries climb in value while the Dow climbs 150 and the Nasdaq rises 45.

Common sense would say that this is a warning sign that the economy has truly lost its shine, so why are people plowing money into stocks? It would seem at first blush that the investors have forgotten the important lesson of the recent market mania (and subsequent Nasdaq selloff) that investments, particularly share ownership in corporations, must fundamentally be justified by the underlying business model and the corporation's performance within the larger economy. With jobs being lost and the economy slowing down, does this bode well for the future demand for and earnings on the corporations' products?

Truly, all eyes are on the Fed, and the expected easing of monetary policy (lower interest rates) that might reasonably follow this bad news. If today's stock market performance is to be justified somehow on a fundamental basis rather than a resumption of the past mania (which it just might be), then we must call it a flight out of the dollar, albeit in an ill-advised direction that largely depends on the future purchasing power of the dollar and employment for its demand-side fundamentals among American consumers.

With the down now again at nearly 11,000, just look at the link above to convince yourself if these levels are justified in our now slowing economy coupled with the eroding monetary fundamentals that have been documented here.

The rise in short-term Treasury prices (prices move inversely to rates) seems to be the only fundamentally-justified action seen here, because these short-dated notes are most sensitive as a parallel to the FOMC-established target rates.

auspec

(05/04/2001; 17:20:57 MDT - Msg ID: 53062)

PH in LA

A program note/ msg # 53049Thanks, PH, very interesting thoughts in regards to who "Big Trader" and the various "players" might be. A little intrique, no? From your message per ANOTHER:
"Well a funny thing happened right after the Gulf War ended. What looked like big money before turned out to be little money as some HK people, I'll call them "Big Trader" for short, moved in and started buying all the notes and physical the market offered." END
Comment: Note the specific use of the words 'them' and 'people' in regards to "Big Trader". So ANOTHER could be a part of "Big Trader" but others {pleural} are also involved, right? I like to think these guys are connected with the EU and dissemination of its various merits as it unfolds, but have not personally followed their discourse from the beginning. You're right, we'll probably never know their identities, but we will surely know their prognosticating abilities!
Yes, we all have some degree of motive for posting here, whether it be simple sharing of knowledge or whatever. I like to think we do what we do because we are who we are. Or are we who we are because we've done what we've done? Anyway we are all grateful for this esteemed place and the opportunity to LEARN as well as share.
Any other ideas on who these "Big Trader" are?
Aauspec

Black Blade

(05/04/2001; 17:34:47 MDT - Msg ID: 53063)

New Yorkers fear summer power struggle

http://www.guardianunlimited.co.uk/elsewhere/journalist/story/0,7792,485398,00.html
The heat is rising in the city, and some say New York is next for power blackouts

Snippit:

It's summer in the city of New York. After months of miserable weather, temperatures have been in the 80s all week and the latest reports suggests that this summer could be a scorcher. Energy analysts believe that America's largest city is the most likely to follow the example of California into a power crisis this summer. On paper at least, New York's antiquated, deregulated supply is going to find it tough to meet the increased demand of a rising population and high temperatures.

Black Blade: Severe power outages could cause a lot of havoc on Wall Street as the records of many US corporations are stored electronically in NY. Trading sessions could be disrupted as well. California-style energy crisis is just now cropping up on the East coast. Meanwhile the situation looks to go critical in the Western states, especially if temperatures soar this summer. The Midwest could also experience some difficulty.

Black Blade

(05/04/2001; 17:43:49 MDT - Msg ID: 53064)

50 reasons gasoline isn't cheaper

http://www.csmonitor.com/durable/2001/05/04/fp1s3-csm.shtml
As big driving season dawns, refiners must make as many blends of as there are states. This Balkanization of the gasoline market - there are literally 50 different blends used in the country - is a major reason prices might approach $2.00 per gallon in some areas this summer. In fact, now that the summer driving season is near, boosting demand in an era of tight supplies, the nation's refiners face daunting challenges - and criticism from all sides. They find themselves blamed for shortages, and for air pollution.

Black Blade: And it won't get better either as more regulations and standards are about to be implemented and more are about to be put on the books. This ties up several grades of fuel for some areas as the refiners will find themselves playing catch-up. Many refiners can't handle many variations of these proposed reformulated fuels. Look for higher fuel prices down the road.Also look for the cost of transporting goods to squeeze profit margins and passed along to the consumer in the form of higher prices.

Black Blade

(05/04/2001; 17:48:30 MDT - Msg ID: 53065)

Energy Could Be U.S. Economic Rebound Spoiler-Fed

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010504/business_economy_fed_dc_86.html
Snippit:

RICHMOND, Va. (Reuters) - A sharp increase in energy prices could be the party pooper for a turnaround in the U.S. economy, two Federal Reserve officials said on Friday. In separate appearances, Richmond Fed President Alfred Broaddus and Chicago Fed President Michael Moskow cited increasing costs for gasoline, natural gas and electricity as potential spoilers for the U.S. economy as it tries to climb out of the doldrums.

Black Blade: More sleepers awaken. We can count on it. Hey - Just trot out Abby Jo for a good ol' pump and dump.

Black Blade

(05/04/2001; 17:58:33 MDT - Msg ID: 53066)

Gephardt calls Calif. power crisis national issue

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010504/n04411681_2.html
Snippit:

``People all over the West are being hit by higher prices. What hits in the West will hit in the Midwest, will hit in the Northeast. This is America's problem, not just California's problem,'' Gephardt told a crowd of 750 activists. Earlier Friday, U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham said California should not expect much more than federal energy conservation programs to help the state survive a chronic electricity shortage which has triggered sky-high prices. Abraham said the state must buckle down and build more power plants and should not expect help in the form of federal caps on spiraling wholesale power prices.

Black Blade: Even the Dems have made a 180 degree turn around on the energy crisis issue. Obviously Gephardt is testing the waters for a run at the presidency next time around. Bush will likely take the heat for a crisis that was years in the making. However, Gephardt has it right, this energy crisis will spread because many of the miss-steps in California were repeated elsewhere. This summer could be a crucial test.

Black Blade

(05/04/2001; 18:15:43 MDT - Msg ID: 53067)

Bush and the California 'Energy Crisis': Too Little, Too Late

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/010504/dcf029.html
Snippit:

With Dick Cheney leaking out details of the Bush Administration's misguided energy policy this week, Californians -- the people at the center of what the Administration calls the ``energy crisis'' -- can't
help but wonder: where's the leadership? ``George W. Bush said 'drop dead' to Californians long ago as payback for voting for Al Gore in the last election,'' said Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chairman Terry McAuliffe. ``Now he realizes that allowing his Big Oil buddies to do whatever they want to our environment won't win him any more votes there, either. So what does Bush do? He ignores
California, and hopes nobody notices.''

Black Blade: Geeezzz, here it is. The blame falling on Bush for 12 years of inactivity and lack of preparation on California's part. Of course why should Bush care about California, he won't ever get their vote. Clinton did the same to the Western states as he stripped land away from the people as punishment. Case in point - Escalante Staircase NP, among others. Escalante Staircase is a forbidding desert with the World's largest known deposit of low-sulfur coal. And Clinton? Remember in Utah he came in third behind Bush and Perot in 1992, and again behind Dole and Perot in 1996. It's called "What goes around, comes around."

Black Blade

(05/04/2001; 18:22:00 MDT - Msg ID: 53068)

California's Power Shortage Could Threaten New Homebuilding Projects

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/010504/0091.html
Snippit:

LOS ANGELES--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 4, 2001--A growing shortage of electric power and soaring energy costs could force California builders to postpone or kill some new housing projects -- a problem that would further aggravate the state's severe housing shortage.

Black Blade: Can you say "Higher Rents." This will hit the lower and middle classes the hardest in the pocketbook and with them goes the economy.

Black Blade

(05/04/2001; 18:31:56 MDT - Msg ID: 53069)

Oil refineries want protection from blackouts

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/krcontracosta/20010504/lo/oil_refineries_want_protection_from_blackouts_1.html
Snippit:

California lawmakers are acting to keep the electricity crisis from fueling a gasoline crisis as well. A move is gaining momentum in the Legislature to protect oil refineries from rolling power blackouts that could disrupt production and send gasoline supplies plummeting and prices soaring. Gasoline prices seasonally edge upward in the summer, the prime season for motorists. But oil companies say California risks far more severe price spikes if power outages cripple refineries and key pipelines.

Black Blade: A vicious cycle! Refinery utilization rates are at either 95.8% according to the API, or 98.8% according to the EIA. Either way, refining capacity is nearly maxed out. Any disruption during this critical period of refining reformulated fuels will cause fuel prices to sky-rocket.

Black Blade

(05/04/2001; 18:41:03 MDT - Msg ID: 53070)

Platinum Rises to Two-Week High as Users Switch From Palladium

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?T=finer99_auto.ht&s=AOvJ5jhZLUGxhdGlu
Snippit:

London, May 4 (Bloomberg) -- Platinum rose to a two-week high while palladium changed little, in a further sign that carmakers are switching back to platinum as a raw material for pollution control devices.

Black Blade: Also most speculators in Palladium were washed out when the TOCOM and NYMEX defaulted (actually changed the rules of the game - same thing really). It is a matter of "fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me." This see-saw action could see Platinum go higher as Palladium drops. It should also be noted that auto sales are falling fast as the economy goes into the dumpster. Both PGM metals could tumble for a while.

Black Blade

(05/04/2001; 18:49:38 MDT - Msg ID: 53071)

Dummy's Guide To Hedging The Gold Market

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256A420047E005?OpenDocument
Snippit:

At risk of oversimplification, hedging is essentially a lien on gold yet to be mined. Typically, a producer borrows gold for immediate sale, using the cash to fund its activities or to arbitrage interest rates. Also, the funds raised are off balance sheet, which makes firms appear more valuable than they might otherwise be.

Black Blade: This much like those who take a loan against there home for 125% value (essentially a forward sale). There's risk associated of course. One could lose their home if the economy turns against them. It is really no different with the forward sales of gold. The mine could be lost and acquired by the counter-party. Game over and check mate!

(05/04/2001; 18:55:33 MDT - Msg ID: 53072)

Belgian

Hey Belgian - thanks for your thoughts. I always enjoy your posts. You write in part;

"And is "not enough gold" the reason why it is not freely tradable?"

Not enough gold "at this price". Plenty of gold to go around at some price. "That" is the reason gold is not freely traded, at least as far as we can tell. I have this idea that gold is actually freely traded amongst some entities, we're just not privy to the "price". I do think, however, that we're getting closer everyday to that particular price discovery.

Black Blade

(05/04/2001; 18:56:55 MDT - Msg ID: 53073)

World Gold Council Report - Hedging is Beneficial

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256A4200523CF4?OpenDocument
Snippit:

JOHANNESBURG � The role played by the derivatives market in influencing the price of gold has been exaggerated, according to a report issued by the World Gold Council in association with the London School of Business. Another finding of the report, titled "Gold Derivatives: The Market Impact", is that the use of derivatives is in decline, a condition which should reverse any affects these financial instruments had on the gold market. The author of the report, Professor Anthony Neuberger, says gold derivatives � known commonly as hedging � have been beneficial to gold producers, fabricators and central banks.

Black Blade: Yeah, right.

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/04/2001; 19:10:38 MDT - Msg ID: 53074)

Lady Leigh

Will try to post A. W. Pink as per your request on Sunday.

Very respectfully,

HBM

auspec

(05/04/2001; 19:44:09 MDT - Msg ID: 53075)

Belgian #53056 Tree #53048

ThoughtsSir Belgian! That was quite a list of questions, even I was impressed. Here's your answers: Yes X 14, No X 11, maybe X 5, no idea X 22. Just kidding. The only people who can answer ALL those questions don't or won't {completely} post here, but isn't it fascinating that some individuals surely know the answers totally. Maybe if we persist long enough THEY will have pity upon us and just TELL ALL? In the mean time, since my posting priveleges are currently intact, I will continue this thread of thought/questions. When you advance far enough on this Forum, ala Aristotle or Oro, they 'boing' you out of here to a higher level, leaving few to answer everyone else's questions. It's a bit like Ground Hog Day where we are all subject to the same endless/unanswerable questions until asomeone finally gets it right. You and BB are a couple of 'nettectives' about ready to graduate, I believe.
Anyway, with that drivel out of the way, we can now get down to some serious discussion, no? Per your post: "Can a ME oil-giant, convert, oil-dollars into physical gold? Is there enough gold available to do this freely and totally unnoticed? Have the Rothschilds as oil/gold traders, taken the necessary arrangements, to prevent gold from trading freely?" END. Imho: No, they cannot convert oil to gold across the board, no way. Doesn't work mathematically. But they can get sufficient gold to satisfy themselves that the deal is at least somewhat fair. Throw in some 'favors', political or military, above or under the table, and the relationship continues to work. The 'Anglo' {English} aligned countries get a flow of cheap oil to undergird their economies, and the ME gets lasting value in return for their diminishing resource. "Have the Rothschilds....?"
Answer, an emphatic yes. The LBMA tells the story clearly.
As far as the GP {gold producers} are concerned; they have to be divided into different camps. Let's stick Anglo{English}gold together with Barrick just for the fun of it, no? As ANOTHER stated "Indeed, a line is most certainly drawn between Washington/NY, London, South Africa and the Middle East...." So we see the ME as having oil and the others as having gold or gold access. The London and US connection is obvious now as we have all seen it play out over the recent years. Does it center/originate in London? What will happen if Britain goes EU? Do the same folks run much of US and London's 'sphere'? What is the South African connection? History shows the undeniable links of London and South Africa, right? Who owns the Federal Reserve, the BoE, S.A. Fed? Who owns Barrick, Anglo{English}gold? My, it starts to smack of a bit of 'inbreeding', no?
So, other than the connected/owned gold producers the rest of them are mere sheep, blindly following their shepherds. If they get big enough, like maybe Franco Nevada, they will be invited to join in the games, or otherwise prepare for battle. The top % of any field or country gets invitations to join the elite. Ask Ted Turner for example. If you can get big enough you can play.
The smaller gold companies are trying to survive at this point. They are in no position to make any type of statement as to gold being money, as they know the consequences. They are simply trying to find enough product, regardless of what people call it; commodity or money. If they find enough of it they can paper-cash in.
Tree in the Forest--- You would think there would be a huge outrage over CB loss of gold, right? I'm not so sure it actually would happen because the masses have been so successfully dumbed down. With the potential sale of IMF gold it took a very unlikely coalition of Congressmen to defeat this idea. It was quite the setup, and the IMF is likely pulling an end around anyway. By the way, who runs the IMF? More rhetorical questions. The US public knows practically NOTHING about gold as they have been thoroughly 'fiatized'. They would read about it and focus for a couple hours or days and move on to the next event/distraction. It would take another unlikely coalition to make it an important issue. We are very late in these games!
The oil and gold trade comes to an end when the CBs are no longer willing to sacrifice remaining gold. The WA countries are basically there already/almost. It is the particular country's gold as it actually doesn't belong to the CBs, but that doesn't seem to concern them. Let's play 'follow the money': The public/CB gold gets sold down or rearranged. Some of it leaves public coffers and ends up in private hands like the BBs. The mining company scavange hunt allows favored and elitist owned companies to pick the bones of their less favored brethren. You lose some gold in someone else's hand and gain some gold {in the ground} in your own hand. In the meantime your milk cow {various Anglo economies- US Canada Aus NZ UK} continue to provide various opportunities for common theft through other means.
Per Tree # 53048:
1. They shear the common people of their gold dreams.
2. Then they go after the smaller miners.
3. Then the smaller nations.
4. Then various national treasuries are compromised.
"And all of this to support a bankrupt nation in receivership." Exactamundo Sir Tree! If you can make the US Constitution an archaic document in the process, so much the better. Think GLOBAL, as do our leaders!
here's an unanswered question. When London/Britain finally decides to go Euro will that be the coup de grace???? They are now currently aligned against the EU in their gold maneuvering, but for how long?? clearly the US cannot stand alone w/o British sphere of influence. As FOA said {roughly}- at some point they cannot afford to continue to support a decaying structure.
Per ANOTHER: "Now the CBs will have to sell 1/3 to 1/2 of their gold just to cover what's out there." Are we there yet? I think we're pretty close. Cheap gas and wonderful economies in the developed world were great, no? Good thing we knew the game underfoot and took advantage of the yellow bargain presented, no? What else will be left?
auspec

lamprey_65

(05/04/2001; 19:54:51 MDT - Msg ID: 53076)

Gold Weekly

Gold closed up over $2.00 on COMEX this week. I don't expect much next week...should probably even get a pullback as COMEX expiration occurs on Friday and BOE auction is on the 15th(?).

I do believe, however, that the week after next could be explosive as the auction will be out of the way and Greenspan will probably lower rates once again on the 15th. The dollar may fall off that cliff very soon.

(05/04/2001; 20:05:43 MDT - Msg ID: 53077)

Hey PH - always good to read your stuff! You write in part;

"At the same time, I cannot rid myself of the
nagging suspicion that there is some purpose behind their efforts beyond a mere desire for a dissemination of
information. I mean, why else would he/they maintain such an effort over such a long period of time? And with
such unvarying persistance?"

Well PH, if I were to guess, I would say they support the view that the euro should be the next fiat scheme. Simple as that. They're advocating the continuation of fiat as we know it, just a different version.

Netking

(05/04/2001; 20:39:55 MDT - Msg ID: 53078)

@Solomon Weaver

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/morgan042801.htmlGood to see you back..."Silver Bull" & have a read of the Morgan link above if you haven't already.

Chris Powell

(05/04/2001; 21:07:29 MDT - Msg ID: 53079)

A preview of the GATA African Gold Summit

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/747New GATA dispatch by Adam Hamilton.
The Durban conference is next week.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

JMB

(05/04/2001; 22:59:48 MDT - Msg ID: 53080)

PH in LA

The "purpose of their efforts" is to promote the sale of gold bullion. A great idea, don't you think?

Tannehill

(05/04/2001; 23:36:39 MDT - Msg ID: 53081)

Bullion dealer begs off?

http://www2.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/newsArticles.asp?guid=%7B2109C81E%2DFE05%2D48FF%2D837A%2D0B1AB3B820D3%7D&Sorry if this has already been posted, but more stories like this one and gold may get some where.

NewsFinder
MARKETWATCH NEWS NEWS SERVICES COMPANY RELEASES NEWS SEARCH

NY gold pops to 7-week high on early fund buying

5/3/2001 10:06:00 AM
NEW YORK, May 3 (Reuters) - Speculators bid COMEX gold up to a seven-week high early Thursday, stretching the top of its recent range and offering the first whiff of excitement in a week muffled by overseas holidays.

After opening near flat, June gold <0#GC:> at 0925 EDT was up $1.50 at $267.30 an ounce, trading from $265.50 to $267.60, the highest price since March 14.

That broke targeted resistance at $266.00/50 and nudged the contract above the $267.50 high from April 27.

"We're seeing fund buying," said a bullion dealer, who then begged off.

*****************
Opps, didn't mean to let the cat out of the bag.

That's all from Tannehill

Black Blade

(05/05/2001; 03:10:12 MDT - Msg ID: 53082)

Fed's Legwork Led To Quick Rate Cut

http://washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A40977-2001May3.html
Snippit:

When the Federal Reserve policymakers surprise financial markets with an unexpected change in interest rates, investors and analysts often wonder, "What do they know that we don't? Usually, the answer is nothing.

But when the Fed caught the markets off guard on April 18 with a half-point reduction in short-term interest rates, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and other central bank officials did have some vital, privately gathered information that convinced them an immediate rate cut was needed.

Black Blade: Why did the Fed cut rates, two of them being intrameeting rate cuts? AG and the Fed obviously know that the economic outlook is worse than it appears to the US public. This article provides quite an analysis - worth reading.
View Yesterday's Discussion.

Black Blade

(05/05/2001; 03:25:17 MDT - Msg ID: 53083)

Employment Situation Summary

http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
The entire BLS report.

Black Blade

(05/05/2001; 03:50:32 MDT - Msg ID: 53084)

Saudis, UAE Healthy Gold Appetite

http://business.iafrica.com/news/sabusinessnews/272877.htm
Snippit:

Moaz Barakat, WGC Middle East regional director, says the WGC forecasts gold demand in the Gulf region to remain strong for the remainder of 2001. He says regional consumer confidence, boosted last year on the back of higher world oil prices, will continue to grow.

Black Blade: Gold for oil?

Rockgrabber

(05/05/2001; 04:22:55 MDT - Msg ID: 53085)

Please allow me to ask

I have been asked this a number of times now, and I dont know the anser. What sort of reporting requirements does gold have? When you leave this country for good, and you have gold, how do you get it out without reporting it? Is that posssible? Could you just FEDX a bit at a time out of the country? I would love that info if you have it, thanks.

Canuck

(05/05/2001; 05:27:32 MDT - Msg ID: 53086)

Belgian, auspec

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/hamilton043001.htmlExcellent ramblings gentlemen.

Hamilton discusses commodities in the link above. Many of the graphs portray bizarre patterns. The one that stuck with me was "..commodities prices lowest in 80 years..".

Awesome read.

On a complete sidenote, I was wondering if anyone has heard more of the Swiss sales. Recall a month or two ago the Swiss had 'fired' the BIS in their gold sales.

What has become of that?

Please also check out the GATA message (a few posts below). It is really amazing the amount of dirt discovered in the last year or so involving the anti-gold group.

Time to load up?

Canuck

(05/05/2001; 06:12:43 MDT - Msg ID: 53087)

Greenspan in a pickle

Well, well, well.

Just gone through all the posts and messages from Friday, can't wait until the 15th to see what distortions of reality come out of the FED.

If Mr. Greenspan lowers another half, the dollar will be pounded, go gold!!

If he doesn't the stock markets fade into oblivion and with the noticeable trend of the PM's it should made a great day, go gold!!

Interesting that the European CB holds steady, sitting on its hands laughing hysterically inside.

Fitting that the BOE bi-monthly 'gold-giveaway' co-incides this lovely day.

Also fitting that the GATA boys get a few days head start before this carnage.

At long last we see the end of FED games, the game of being "caught between a rock and a hard place"

:)

Have a golden week-end!!

Canuck.

RossL

(05/05/2001; 06:12:51 MDT - Msg ID: 53088)

Ponzi Index

http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htm
Shifty has been AWOL lately, but the chart is updated.

Henri

(05/05/2001; 06:46:44 MDT - Msg ID: 53089)

Mr. Gresham msg# 53050

A toast to your intent to clink sir! No, I visited Expo '67 in my youth and spent some time on the Ridieu (sp?) Lake chain, but no canoeing.

Henri

(05/05/2001; 06:50:20 MDT - Msg ID: 53090)

Auspec and PH...Who is Big Trader?

When I would read about Big Trader, for some reason my mind gravitated toward thinking it was the boys from LTCM. Especially when I read the ...what looked like big money turned out to be small money...part. Hmm your posts have redirected my thoughts which are still dazed and confused and seeking the light of knowledge

Shermag

(05/05/2001; 07:44:10 MDT - Msg ID: 53091)

Further to Elwood's insightfull missive on Arabs, Gold, and Oil

Elwood posted a great piece with:
"Elwood (4/26/01; 01:20:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 52598)
Of Austrians and Arabs"
to which I would like to add some conjecture.

Elwood states "When Arab well runs dry or oil's timeline be ended by technology, on that day Arab wake and wish for higher gold price, because then he becomes seller."

It is on this point I posit that the Arab has a further objective in accumulating gold than for golds sake alone.

The Arab ruler seeks to avoid, or at least minimize, the destabilizing impact that depletion will bring his kingdom.

There have been efforts to install an industrial base outside of the oil industry, purchased with oil, but this effort is fighting the headwind of Triffin's Dilemma in which "industry is destroyed at the source of money creation". Oil is the money in this circumstance.

When the oil stops flowing they will seek a bridge to an economy based on something other than oil, perhaps banking. Gold is that bridge.

Shermag

JMB

(05/05/2001; 08:36:12 MDT - Msg ID: 53092)

Many thanks to Dr.V for this Saville INFLATION UPDATE

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/milhouse050201.htmlThis covers alot of ground. A very good article, imo.

Belgian

(05/05/2001; 10:14:05 MDT - Msg ID: 53093)

Round Table

ET : what indication(s) do you have, to suppose that unknowns are exchanging or converting physical gold at much higher prices than the present paper-price ? Hedgers have been selling the bulk of their underground at around 320$+
A total hedged volume of 10.000 tonnes for the next 5 years (miningweb). If there is so much gold around...why are they trading, inside, at much higher prices ? IMO, it is a misconception that we as modest individuals are not allowed to trade freely. Gold and silver is plenty available(physical) here at spot prices. But for a Big Gold-Accumulator, there is not enough "physical" gold at present prices. The biggies must manoeuver with paper stuff to obtain a small amount of physical in hand at this ultra low price levels. Please, elaborate your vieuws on the matter.

Elwood and Auspec : The "Big Trader" ? One thing for sure : it is not me ! :-)
My guess is Saudi Arabia. The 1990 Gulf war and repayment for the US assistance, are a plausible reason why the Saudis and the US, arranged a deal, with the involvement of Gold. A win/win deal : A declining POG, suitable for accumulation against a low POO as repayment for war debt.
The US gets the wanted low gold profile to favor their dollar + a low POO to quick start the economy. The Saudis sitting on the cheapest oil in the world and still making a profit at 10$/barril. They are part of the deal for a stable (increasing) dollar for their oil and in the back of their mind, they know that with this cheap oil, they enforce their dominance, with the prevention of other oil-explorations. The end-date of that deal, might explain why POO soared from 10$ to 34$. And the Saudis had no reason to stop the advantage of cheap gold and stable dollar. The have not only abundant oil but also all the time in the world. That's why I suspect that the Saudis are The Big Trader. This scenario might also explain why the correlation between Gold and oil has been interrupted, temporarely.(compare charts).

This supposed after war deal is probably the reason why everybody has lots of interests to remain silent about gold and oil. War debts and restitutions have always been something that had to remain very discrete.
And as usual we can't impossibly find evidence of Saudi gold accumulation in official statistics. And no official goldtrader is going to reveal, never ever, the identity of its Saudi client(s). Hello, is there an insider in the room ?

The Gulf war is of course only part of the gold drama (opportunity). The accompagned low POO was a gift for every other nation on the globe. Why should they shout about a low POG ? Why should they want to end the POG creative price setting if they all get a strong dollar in exchange to expand their ponzi game with the 1,75 trillion reserves(BIS) (80% in US$)? And the Saddam-Sanctions will certainly also have their place in this scenario. And not only for prevention to re-arm Irak. Arm sales are also a big business. France and Germany were the two main arms providers and are not selling their gold ? Can you find a role for the UK in this story ?

If the well informed Anglogold/Barrick, had both, knowledge of such a secret oil/gold-war deal (US-Saudi)...can you blame them for hedging like hell ?????? Oeffff, I've said it. Looking forward to your stimulating comments.

Econoclast

(05/05/2001; 10:44:51 MDT - Msg ID: 53094)

Gold is Not Dead!

If gold were dead, and central banks were truly dumping it to get it out of their vaults before its value went to zero in their "brave new world", the dollar price would not be what it is.
A huge campaign and world wide conspiracy would have been activated to PUMP the price these last few years-not depress it-so that the CB's could obtain the MOST value-for-money as they dumped their soon to be worthless reserves.

PH in LA

(05/05/2001; 11:14:25 MDT - Msg ID: 53095)

WHO THEY ARE. (Program note addendum)

Hi, Auspec,
Yes, no question but that at the time, the activities of some big Hong Kong interests were the focus of ANOTHER's (aka. Big Trader's) comments. Those "big traders" seem to have faded from ANOTHER's radar screens a long time ago. They were probably a bigger factor then than they are now. ANOTHER's use of the Big Trader handle seems like a way of grabbing attention and focusing it on those Hong Kong interests. He certainly didn't stay very long with them. At that time, the explosion of the paper market was probably just getting underway. The Hong Kong people could not be such a big factor in the present climate, even though they may have been important in launching it.

ET:
Forgive me if I don't quite share your view that the FOA/ANOTHER/Big Trader person/persons are an advocacy group for the Euro-fiat crowd. FOA has been very explicit in that he does not advocate any form of money per se. Rather, he sees clearly what they are and is willing to go with what is, to his advantage. He is philosophically a pragmatist... and is careful not to let other philosophical emotions guide his thinking. His commitment to fiat falls far short of advocacy in my book. He recognizes its strengths and weaknesses and strives to use them to best advantage. That's all.

And the same goes for his orientation towards gold. The only consistent message that I have ever gleaned from contemplating ANOTHER"s THOUGHTS is that physical gold will one day soon be a tremendous bonanza for those who have it. I'm sorry, but I just don't see any value judgement/philosophical advocacy there at all. FOA/ANOTHER do not think simplistically that "everything about gold is good". Nor can the purpose of their efforts be described as "to promote the sale of gold bullion" as our JMB suggests. What 'purpose' would there be in that? The world is way too big for the views of one to move all the rest of humanity. Perhaps Cheeshead thinks so. But FOA/ANOTHER is way smarter than that! And sure, Michael K. does probably benefit from FOA's presence here, but I see that as merely FOA's way of thanking MK and in a small way of paying for the forum. After all, FOA and ANOTHER were out there long before USAgold even thought of having a forum. In those days, everyone was reading Kitco, even Michael K.

The idea that gold is some kind of moral issue is well enough left to the narrow-minded religious types who need yardsticks supplied by others to anchor themselves in the cosmos. FOA has tried on several occasions to explain that he merely tries to see what is, to be better able to position himself in man's financial cosmos. He does not "believe" in Euros, fiats, gold or any other system. A true thinker, he tries to understand reality and then act accordingly. Forgive me, but I just don't see him trying to impose a belief system of his own on an indifferent cosmos.

That's just the way I see it.

Please don't take offence, FOA by these poor musings about your motives/identities/etc. Much as you might like to deny it, your message would be several magnitudes clearer if we knew who you were and why you make the effort you do here. At the same time, there is no question in my mind but that you have your own very good reasons. And I am not offended in the least by that... And I do look in on this forum every day just in the hope that you might post something. Thanks for all you do!

Chris Powell

(05/05/2001; 11:18:25 MDT - Msg ID: 53096)

Miners must realize their product is money, not jewelery....

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/748And that, as money, their product is the deadly
competitor of the money issued by governments, and
thus it will be undermined and attacked by
governments.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches by email and get them immediately so you don't have to go look for them, send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Mr Gresham

(05/05/2001; 12:10:26 MDT - Msg ID: 53097)

PH in LA: WHO

Well-spoken; you have captured my sense of their contribution, and motives, very well.

One way to put it perhaps is: "Sometimes, even the little guy catches a break."

With a currency war on the outbreak, most Americans are like a village of people living on the slopes of a volcano. They have lived and farmed here for generations, safely, and have no thoughts of ever moving.

Then, one day, a couple of seismologists move into the village and start talking to the people about the strange, far-off rumblings they have been hearing...

Peter Asher

(05/05/2001; 12:26:08 MDT - Msg ID: 53098)

@ Randy; This is tour specialty to comment on

@ Pru-Bear --definitionofbear 5/4/01 22:25
M3 did contract its growth rate for the week ending April 23 and the contraction was significant compared to the massive, massive expansion for the few weeks pre-April 16. It will be interesting to see confirmation from next week's numbers. I guess that massive M3 expansion was a giant equity-buy-in just before April 16. And now we are seeing a cash out?

But, the slow down was only back to the rate of March 12.
I wonder if next week will be even slower. Let me check if something interesting happened in the indices around March 12. ...

auspec

(05/05/2001; 12:35:30 MDT - Msg ID: 53099)

Belgian

Mo RamblingsThanks, Canuck, for the 'upgrade' from babbling to rambling.
You got it pretty much correct.
Belgian-- Regarding Big Trader: Your Arabian connection is certainly plausable and all of these motives and activities fit the House of Saud to a tee. "War payments and restitutions" would have to be discrete and something to consider for sure. A secret oil/gold-war deal, eh? Whatever AngloBarrick knew was certainly sufficient to profit and participate in the POG downside. Clearly they had the inside scoop whatever it actually is. Don't forget that 'London' was a major participant in Gulf War. The workout of physical is largely via LBMA so UK is ALWAYS front and center in this story.
We can't overlook "Big Trader" as described by ANOTHER as "HK people". Of course Saud interests can work through HK and likely do, but the Chinese piece of the puzzle must also find its place {regardless}. The HK gold market is enormous, and the affinity for gold in that region is second to none {or few}. Anyone doubt the flow of gold from west to east?
CAUTION: If you don't believe in gold black markets or drugs and gold interchanges please skip this paragraph! The HK gold mafket is every bit as murky as LBMA, and completely unopen to international visibility. China has historically produced enormous amounts of illicit drugs as have many neighboring countries {Thailand and Afghanistan to name a couple}, and this drug trade continues to date. A very real scenario could see gold flowing to HK in exchange for drugs, as repeated reports tell of the growers wanting to be paid in gold. This is likely NOT what ANOTHER was referring to as "some HK people", but it is valid nevertheless.
With the Asian affinity for gold and the magnitude of the HK gold market I don't think we really need to look further for who "Big Trader" was. PH doesn't seem to think it has remained relevant to ANOTHER's continuing saga. UK/US/Saud/SA are the centerpieces and "Big Trader" is likely perigheral to that, imho.
It does go to show that if the US wants to showcase ALL their gold as suggested by FOA, there will be folks foaming at the mouth to get their hands on it! That much has not changed. Realize that FOA continues to talk of international Dollar reserves going to nada as we progress{?} through his scenario. Bet a lot of countries would swap their nada for some yellow, given half a chance! They can't buty through CPM as we can because MK will only sell to real Gentlemen{persons}. Otherwise HE would also be cleaned out. Sometimes it pays to be small.
YES, I blame AngloBarrick for "hedging like hell" just like anyone else that profits from insider trading at the expense of supposedly free markets. We could have sold with them if only we'd known! I know your contempt for their actions also.
Mo IDEAS?

(05/05/2001; 13:41:50 MDT - Msg ID: 53100)

Belgian

Hey Belgian - thanks for the reply. You write in part;

"ET : what indication(s) do you have, to suppose that unknowns are exchanging or converting physical gold at much
higher prices than the present paper-price ? Hedgers have been selling the bulk of their underground at around
320$+
A total hedged volume of 10.000 tonnes for the next 5 years (miningweb). If there is so much gold around...why
are they trading, inside, at much higher prices?"

Let me first say I believe little has changed over the course of man's history regarding their choice of money. Gold is the best money and in today's context the money of last resort when the fiat schemes come apart for lack of confidence. As ANOTHER has pointed out repeatedly, at least some oil producers understand gold's "value". I don't think it is much of a stretch to believe that those that have held gold as savings also understand the value of gold. These would include not just the oil producers, but also the oil consumers via their governments. It is in this realm where gold is traded freely as evidenced by the huge volume of trading in London that came to light a few years ago. I would say an amount of oil is being traded today for an amount of gold, paper prices notwithstanding.

It would appear some oil consumers have not had enough "savings" to pay for some time and have resorted to "printing gold". This is where we find ourselves today with economies based on relatively cheap energy but not having the savings to buy it. It would appear that the world isn't suffering so much from an energy shortage as a savings shortage. I would venture the world has misallocated its savings and now find themselves in the untenable position of having built an economy which cannot produce a profit. No profits will eventually lead to a collapse of the current fiat scheme resulting in either a return to sound money or some new version of fiat.

"IMO, it is a misconception that we as modest individuals are not
allowed to trade freely. Gold and silver is plenty available (physical) here at spot prices. But for a Big
Gold-Accumulator, there is not enough "physical" gold at present prices. The biggies must manoeuver with paper
stuff to obtain a small amount of physical in hand at this ultra low price levels. Please, elaborate your views on
the matter."

Well, if gold were trading freely relative to fiat, the Big Gold Accumulator would simply place his order and receive his gold. The reason it isn't possible is because there is not enough gold available at these fiat prices. The fiat scheme has at its heart the manipulation of gold "prices" so as to make the fiat itself appear valuable to those using it. By definition, the euro will have to achieve the same manipulation or it too will fail for the same reason the dollar is failing.

Netking

(05/05/2001; 13:56:15 MDT - Msg ID: 53101)

Public Debt

http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htmThe current public debt. . . $5,636,663,639,692.83

JMB

(05/05/2001; 15:08:02 MDT - Msg ID: 53102)

PH in LA

You said, "After all, FOA and ANOTHER were out there long before USAGold even thought of having a forum. In those days, everyone was reading Kitco, even Michael K."

The history of this great forum and how it has evolved is certainly fascinating to me. Thank you for the historical insight. Would you happen to know if MK was posting at Kitco before the USAGold forum started?

(05/05/2001; 15:15:10 MDT - Msg ID: 53103)

Hey PH - thanks for the reply. You write in part;

"ET:
Forgive me if I don't quite share your view that the FOA/ANOTHER/Big Trader person/persons are an advocacy
group for the Euro-fiat crowd. FOA has been very explicit in that he does not advocate any form of money per se."

We must be reading entirely different authors, PH. He most certainly has been advocating the euro scheme as the way to go with gold held as a "wealth reserve".

"Rather, he sees clearly what they are and is willing to go with what is, to his advantage. He is philosophically a
pragmatist... and is careful not to let other philosophical emotions guide his thinking. His commitment to fiat falls
far short of advocacy in my book. He recognizes its strengths and weaknesses and strives to use them to best
advantage. That's all."

Perhaps. It was certainly the impression I had for quite awhile. Recently, however, Randy and FOA have given us some clues as to the motivation behind these posts. If you don't mind, let me share with you what I've gleaned lately.

Like you, it has always struck me as unusual that someone would post this stuff month after month, year after year, with nothing more in mind than some altruistic purpose. I find that very hard to believe but I don't discount it entirely.

Randy asked me the other day what I thought about the "suffering" that has been caused by the US currency hegemony. Why do you think he would ask this? My guess is that he believes great suffering has come to pass and I certainly agree with him. However, he then goes on to say we should adopt another version of the same thing, apparently so the suffering can be spread around a bit. Why not the more obvious choice, a gold standard, this being a gold board and all that. The only ones that would "suffer" from a gold standard would be the status quo, our friendly banks/governments. Yet this is soundly rejected by both Randy and FOA as "unrealistic".

Looking at this from another point of view, if you had in mind trying to get your hands on the power to mint money, you would first need to take it away from the ones that have it today, am I right? What would be your strategy if you intended to destroy the dollar as the world's reserve currency and at the same time not suffer a total economic collapse leaving you without the confidence in fiat currencies on which to build your version? My guess is you would try to convince people that your version is somehow tied to gold, as that is the money of last resort. You couldn't actually redeem in gold as that would be a gold standard and you wouldn't be able to mint money so the next best choice is to make it seem that your version of fiat is "backed" by gold. You could say your fiat is backed by "reserves of gold" and would be "fairly" marked to market on a timely basis. You could further attempt by repetition to convince people that this is "free market gold". Sounds like a good plan to me although I believe it suffers from the same lack of economic understanding that produced the current situation with the dollar and its many versions, but you sure can't blame the Europeans for trying!

Another point that has always bothered me is the rejection of silver as money. Why? It's not as valuable as gold, but over the years has been regarded as sound money in many times and places. I would guess that the argument against silver is the same argument against gold, it's sound money and that is "unrealistic".

I could go on PH, but in summing up what I've read over the years, these people are advocating the euro scheme and rejecting the gold and silver standard. That puts them squarely on the side of big government and a continuation of the status quo. They would seem to advocate hoarding physical gold because it removes gold from the marketplace making it tougher for the paper gold scheme to continue. If the paper gold scheme can be broken and the economic landscape remain unchanged, they would be in a most enviable position. I believe the paper gold scheme will be broken but I don't believe the economic landscape will remain anything like it is today. There will be few ways to escape the great credit bust. Having some real savings will cushion the process, but the process of returning to sound money will take place, all collectivist planning notwithstanding.

lamprey_65

(05/05/2001; 17:47:18 MDT - Msg ID: 53104)

Belgian

http://www.insidertrader.com/freestuff/ticker_summary.asp?search=1&criteria=hgmcy⋐mit1=GOYou wrote:

"If the well informed Anglogold/Barrick, had both, knowledge of such a secret oil/gold-war deal (US-Saudi)...can you blame them for hedging like hell ??????"

Yes, I've been convinced for some time that this is the case. Let's not forget that Bush senior took a role as advisor to Barrick after leaving office and AngloGold is THE most connected gold miner in the world (Rothschilds/De Beers).

Human beings tend to simplify causes...I believe the falling/low POG since early 1996 has several causes, only one of which is forward selling by mines. Throw in real deflation (1997-1998) and dishoarding directly after the Asian crisis; a skittish Bill Clinton doing ANYTHING in an election year (1996) to make sure he did not suffer the same fate as the Democratic Congress of 1994 -- low POG means the dollar has greater "value" and the U.S. stock market rises as it sucks in foreign money = a "feel good economy"; Central Banks looking to make returns - albeit paltry - on gold assets; and the growing fascination with derivitive instruments in general...it's amazing that gold did not break below $200 and ounce.

The fact remains that gold bottomed in the summer of 1999 and has now shown a possible double bottom. We've been going sideways ever since -- backing and filling looks now to be nearly complete.

This is now a sector play and the "smart money" is starting to show up as a true bottom has had time to form.

From MK's April missive: "Knowing as much as I do about the way central banks all over the world are printing money like confetti, again to help people pay for the rising price of oil, I now expect the biggest and longest gold boom in a century." Adrian van Eck/ Money-Forecast Letter

Question: Is this the same "VAN ECK" as VAN ECK ASSOCIATES CORP.? Check the link above for institutional ownership for stocks HGMCY, GOLD, HM, AU, GG, etc. Also notice the general trend of institutional accumulation of gold mining shares over the past few quarters.

lamprey_65

(05/05/2001; 18:01:29 MDT - Msg ID: 53105)

P.S.

Anyone who does not see the real possibility that Rubin (as former head of Goldmans Sachs, Treasury Secretary and head of the ESF) helped orchestrate the carry trade in gold for Clinton's reelection efforts - utilizing his Goldman Sachs ties...you know, the same Goldman Sachs that was a big Bill Clinton supporter - is just a little naive.

Beowulf

(05/05/2001; 18:43:09 MDT - Msg ID: 53106)

Possibility of WPPSS nuke plant to start up again?

http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?story_id=20516267&ID=cnniw≻ategory=EnergyBlack Blade, you talked a while back about Washington and the WPPSS plant fiasco. Well, they are now looking into restarting construction. The beauty of the plan is the facility is already built so nobody can complain about having a new plant built in their back yard, IT'S ALREADY THERE.

-Beowulf

Nuke plant feasibility is studied
ENERGY: Operators of state's
only nuclear power plant look at
finishing sister reactor
Source: The News Tribune
Publication date: 2001-05-05

The organizers of the Northwest's nuclear fiasco of 20 years ago are on a fast track to learn whether it's technically and financially feasible to resume construction of an abandoned nuclear power plant in Eastern Washington.

An ad hoc committee of Energy Northwest's executive board is moving toward completing by mid-August more than $1 million worth of technical studies and independent reviews of WNP-1, a two-thirds complete plant on the Hanford Nuclear Reservation.

There's a lot of people out there looking at No. 1," Vic Parrish, Energy Northwest's chief executive, told members of the committee meeting Friday at a SeaTac hotel.

Energy Northwest is the new name of the Washington Public Power Supply System, which in the 1970s and '80s tried to build five nuclear power plants at Hanford and Satsop, in Grays Harbor County.

Only one ever was finished, and WPPSS, a consortium of public utilities, collapsed in a $2.25 billion bond default, the largest ever at that time.

Since an energy crisis hit California and the Northwest just about a year ago, however, Energy Northwest's one nuclear plant, the Columbia Generating Station at Hanford, has saved the region's electric ratepayers more than $1 billion, given the cost of buying a comparable amount of power on wholesale markets.

There are no available estimates of the cost and time needed to complete WNP-1. Even if the feasibility studies show finishing the plant is possible, there are still barriers.

It's unclear whether any of Energy Northwest's member utilities, including Tacoma Power, have any interest in financing completion.

And even if there were, state voters in 1981, at the height of the WPPSS fiasco, passed an initiative requiring a public vote on any major public utility power project like the 1,200-megawatt WNP-1.

"There's going to have to be significant public mandate" before Energy Northwest itself tries to organize a completion project, Parrish said.

But there also exists the possibility of selling the plant to a private company or investor, or taking on one or more partners for the project, Parrish said.

The catch to that plan is that most independent operators who have visited the Hanford site probably would want the existing, operating plant also, and it's not for sale.

Board members and Energy Northwest executives were undecided about when or how to approach the public.

"At some point the public will want input," said board member Margaret Allen. "And not on a foregone conclusion."

Two separate reviews by organizations independent of Energy Northwest are planned to help overcome the skepticism that still revolves around anything Energy Northwest proposes.

"Remember, this is a board with a chairman who has never met a nuclear plant he felt made sense," said Rudy Bertschi, an economist and head of the ad hoc committee.

WNP-1 was designed as a boiling-water reactor plant whose 1,250- megawatt output could power a city the size of Seattle. Its original design was simply an outsized version of a small plant first engineered to power the Navy's nuclear submarines.

Major construction work began late in 1975. In the spring of 1982, the Bonneville Power Administration asked that construction be halted.

For the next 12 years WPPSS spent about $5 million a year preserving the plant until the utility consortium abandoned it completely in 1994.

Its federal construction permit has been regularly renewed, however.

But plant components such as valves will soon be sold and Energy Northwest may use the plant's generator to upgrade the plant that's currently operating.

Doing so would sound the economic death knell for WNP-1. ---

* Staff Writer Al Gibbs covers regional energy issues. Reach him at 253-597-8650 or al.gibbs@mail.tribnet.com.

Publication date: 2001-05-05
� 2001, YellowBrix, Inc.

Cavan Man

(05/05/2001; 18:49:43 MDT - Msg ID: 53107)

Since the US government and officialdom are aware of the plans of the ECB/BIS et al courtesy of this forum, maybe your wish (and perhaps mine) will come true. After all, at this stage in the game as it is known by all, why not default on the dollar abroad (we did that already in 1971), institute a new legal tender here and let gold circulate freely in the US (freegold)? They'll probably have to do that to compete with the Euro (freegold) and continue to attract all kinds of capital; human and otherwise. I'm certain Treasury has something in the hopper eh? All it takes is an Executive Order, a rocky period for transition and then, we're back in business. Nobody is going to tank the US economy. That's foolish.

Confiscate gold and hello New Zealand.

R Powell

(05/05/2001; 18:52:23 MDT - Msg ID: 53108)

Lamprey_65 (53104)

Makes sense to me. With that kind of information, it's a wonder they bothered to mine any metal. Maybe they felt some mining would present a good front and keep up the image for the shareholders while the main business became that of a hedge fund.
Thanks for the link to insider trading. Very interesting.
Rich

lamprey_65

(05/05/2001; 18:52:50 MDT - Msg ID: 53109)

I agree with much you have to say, and I've also found TG's comments on silver (among other things) perplexing, to say the least. High inflation, yet a rare commodity which historically tracks gold selling at 50 cents while gold runs to $10,000+ per ounce? Maybe I'm just a "Doubting Thomas" here, but I'd have to see that one.

Personally, I believe the DOW/Gold ratio is a much better guide with 3,000-4,000 on the Dow likely -- the DOW's ultimate support line since the 1930's -- once this 18 year bull market in stocks ends (once 7500 or so on the DOW is breached). This means gold PRICED IN DOLLARS at between $1,000-$4,000 an ounce, with $1,500 an ounce being as good a guess as any I can come up with.

I don't share your optimism concerning a return to a true gold or silver backed currency, however much I yearn for its return. We'd need nothing less than a philosopher king to slay the banking interests of this world to make such a radical change. If you haven't noticed, real informed and effective political leadership is not exactly growing on trees these days. The politicians and the bankers have learned how fiat currency can enchance their power in the short term (and the short term is all that matters - let someone else worry about the long term, as long as "I get mine").

Cavan Man

(05/05/2001; 18:54:30 MDT - Msg ID: 53110)

PH in LA

PH: I'm rather fond of my yardstick but perhaps that is because my mind is wide open at all times. The yardsticks you reference have been handed out for over 5000 years because 99.9% of humanity can't get THERE without one. I am happy for you that you don't seem to need one. Just think of all the time and FRN you are saving. Best.....CM

Cavan Man

(05/05/2001; 18:56:12 MDT - Msg ID: 53111)

and ET....

They are not going to give up the presses--not going to happen.

Beowulf

(05/05/2001; 19:03:38 MDT - Msg ID: 53112)

Everyone has an opinion on Bush's energy plans

http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?story_id=20505432&ID=cnniw≻ategory=Energy%3ANuclearSolar Tax Credits
Source: The Press Democrat - Santa Rosa
Publication date: 2001-05-04
Arrival time: 2001-05-05

EDITOR: The most interesting facet of the
administration's developing power policy is what we
are hearing nothing about. While we are being told
that we need to suffer through blackouts, pay
skyrocketing rates and once again begin building
nuclear plants, we hear nothing about resurrecting
solar tax credits for homeowners.

President Jimmy Carter started what was a very
successful policy, but it was disemboweled by
Ronald Reagan. Had this tax credit been in place
for the past 15 years, our current situation would be
much different. Why there is no discussion of this
is beyond me.

Given that the NIMBY syndrome is so strong a
human trait, large amounts of water are required by
nuclear plants to produce electricity (will water
become the next great crisis?), a lot of time is
needed in order to construct a plant and that there
is a complete inability to dispose of deadly wastes
that will still be very deadly 18,000 years from now,
how nonsensical is the "plan" being foisted on the
public by Cheney/Bush?

LOWELL GRANT

Upper Lake

Publication date: 2001-05-04
� 2001, YellowBrix, Inc.

**************
I brought this point up about solar credits to a co-worker
bashing Bush on his policy. My only reply to him, since he
was an avid Clinton supporter, was that Clinton had 8 years
to reintroduce the credits and didn't. What was Clinton
doing about energy while in office? Oh, that's right NOTHING.

-Beowulf

lamprey_65

(05/05/2001; 19:11:06 MDT - Msg ID: 53113)

Fiat

One last post for the night...

How much Justice is there in a system which pays the hard working man (or woman) in a currency which is being created out of thin air, at the whim of banks and politicians? How should the "common man" feel about his wages and savings in such a system?

And one last thought which I won't expand upon here but which should be worth some thought to many on this forum...

Is fiat Anti-Christ(ian)? Did not Christ warn employers of the injustice of withholding payment to workers?...Is not cheating workers of fair compensation (compensation with true value) even worse as it is deceptive?

Babylon, indeed.

Back tomorrow.

R Powell

(05/05/2001; 19:11:35 MDT - Msg ID: 53114)

Lease rates

http://www.lbma.org.uk/2000/gofo.html There were only three days in June and one in December when the one month rate exceeded 1% and even then it was barely over 1%.
Change the 2000 to 1999 in the link to view the 1999 rates. They exceeded 2% on July 7th and stayed between 2-4% until Sept 3rd when they broke through the 4% level leading up to the September 26 Washington Agreement anouncement. Be careful reading as the gofo rate turns negative at times.
I'm posting this as it's Saturday night and I think these rates along with precious metals stock accumulation are indications that something may be stirring among those who have a clearer view of this gold market. Perhaps GATA's African Gold Summit will get enough press coverage to "trigger" a price move. IMHO when it comes, it will be aided by investment money poured in by people who have little to no clue as to what is really happening. How many understood what the techies and dot coms did? Momentum investment does not require knowledge or understanding. Go GATA! Go press corp!
Rich

Beowulf

(05/05/2001; 19:17:17 MDT - Msg ID: 53115)

Good article on Wind Energy as an alternative

http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?story_id=20512861&ID=cnniw≻ategory=Energy%3ANatural+GasTitle: Is Wind Power a Good Thing?

Hey, I'll take two turbines and you can place them in my back yard. All I ask is that I get to pick a color other than white. Make one silver and the other gold. :)

R Powell

(05/05/2001; 19:19:38 MDT - Msg ID: 53116)

Lease rates for year 2000

http://www.lbma.org.uk/2000gofo.html 2nd try, sorry!

R Powell

(05/05/2001; 19:28:55 MDT - Msg ID: 53117)

Lease rates

Click on the lease rate link at top of forum page, scroll to the bottom, click on home page, then click on statistics, then on derived rates for the desired year. Round about route but it works which is more than can be said for my links.
Rich

The Invisible Hand

(05/05/2001; 20:41:20 MDT - Msg ID: 53118)

Who said again that Germany had no more gold left?

http://www.sunday-times.co.ukFrom David Smith's Economic Outlook in the Business Section of tomorrow's London Sunday Times

France muscles Germany aside
�
There could be worse to come. While France is expected to sail serenely on for the next couple of years, the danger signals are being sounded for Germany. Gabriel Stein, an economist at Lombard Street Research, warns that the country, suffering from an overhang in stocks and weak money-supply growth, could sink into recession this year.
�
The anxiety goes deeper. Germans, unlike many of Europe's citizens, are not used to a weak currency, and their support for the euro, in the latest Eurobarometer survey, is running at only 47%, compared with 62% in France and 79% in Italy. Many Germans will find next year's switch to euro notes and coins hard to bear.
�
Germany got a dreadful deal out of the euro. The D-mark was fixed against the franc and other European currencies at a rate that reflected its pre-unification glories but was, economists say, overvalued by 10%-20%. Monetary union thus gifted France a permanent competitive advantage against Germany, which is unlikely to have come as a surprise to Paris.
�

Trail Guide

(05/05/2001; 20:46:10 MDT - Msg ID: 53119)

a little late

USAGOLD (5/3/01; 19:40:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 53004)
Randy. . . .Argentina

-----FOA, maybe you'd like to get in on this??? ------
---------------------------------------------------------

Hello Michael and everyone!

Oh yes, I not only would get in on this but think I am "in it" up to the old arm pits already (smile). This world of ours is changing fast these days.

Actually, I only just now had time to copy several days worth of the Forum for reading. I'm late to my own invitation here, I know,,,,,,,, but as they say,,,, better late than never! I took the time to finish several things so as to clear up my writing schedule. Have a lot to say and reply to,,,, and this coming week will be very, very free. Oh yes,,,, one other thing,,,,, ET,,,, did you (or anyone here) ever drink in the "monkey bar" in central Oahu (Hawaii)? I know it's long gone now,,,, but there was something up on the roof of that place that you may be interested in. Much more interesting than that huge jungle cage of monkeys behind the bartender. (big grin)

OK everyone,,,,, I'll be back here as soon as I unpack and take care of some things,,,, then it's time for some real give and take.

TrailGuide

Chris Powell

(05/05/2001; 21:45:07 MDT - Msg ID: 53120)

Press release for GATA African Gold Summit

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/749Mining companies, government officials,
the press, and the king of the Zulus will
be there.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Black Blade

(05/06/2001; 02:10:14 MDT - Msg ID: 53121)

Gas Prices Continue To Surge

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/wews/20010504/lo/393243_1.html
Snippit:

CLEVELAND, Posted 4:49 p.m. EDT May 4, 2001 -- What goes up must come down, but gas prices seem to defy gravity and just keep on going up. NewsChannel5's Adam Shapiro reports that drivers are getting stuck with the bill, and in some cases, so are the clerks who sell you gas.

Black Blade: Gas stations are now going to "pre-pay" for gas as there's a surge in "fill and flee." The high price of gasoline has sparked a surge in drivers who fill their tanks and then speed off without paying. A sign of the times. liquid gold?
View Yesterday's Discussion.

Belgian

(05/06/2001; 02:54:14 MDT - Msg ID: 53122)

Lamprey, ET, Auspec

Lamprey : Yes, Van Eck is a Gold(mine)Holder-trader-Fund.
If memory serves me well, they have a very large holding in Gold Fields.
Insider trading : South African goldmines have always had,very large cross-participations. They are trading each other shares very activily. On the minuscule Brussels stock exchange, we have a long tradition of SA goldminers. And now you are going to be super surprised to hear me saying that Brussels SE is very indicative on the price-setting for the SA-mines. Much more important than the Johannesburg SE. The intra-day goldmine live is copied in NY later in the day, with a multiple volume of course. That's how we can spot if the insiders are moving and how they are moving.
That's how we can have an idea if the public (multi-individuals) are following or not. But it still remains an art and not a science. Presently, the insiders are fully guiding and the public isn't following at all. (FWIW)

ET : I still have a lot of difficulties to "understand" the mechanism of : * I would say an amount of oil is being traded today for an amount of gold, paper prices notwithstanding* . Knowing that Saudi is a BIS-member...
How is all this working ? Can you educate me on this subject, please ?

Auspec : The Golden Triangle...funny association with the drug nirwana, isn't it ? Afghanistan :4.600 tonnes of opium per year (77% world production). And the street value is 5.000 $ per 31,1 gram (ounce). Aloha !
But I must add that my (troubled) intuition tells me that drugs-money isn't finding refuge in gold anymore. The bulk is washed into the (un)real economy. Real estate and business.

Some reflexions on the actual (strong) activism around "Blood Diamonts" : A broad based group of would-be idealists are strongly campaigning to ban all trade in diamonts coming from war-zones, like Angola, Sierra Leone etc. The fact that Anglo American (Oppenheimer) wanted to take De Beers from listing (taking it private) and that the merger with LVMH has been cancelled, means, that there is some strong pressure. A few weeks ago, 152 representatives held a congress on the Blood Diamonts in Brussels.
They want to give all diamonts a "SOCIAL" aspect and image !-? This is very, very strange indeed !
Why the hell are they picking exactly diamonts as the cause for so much evil ? Why is De Beers so eager to cooperate with setting up a sophisticated system for diamont earmarking and tracing (war-diamonts) ?
It seems to me that there is more in this, than just a trend following on the Nike-shoes or Cacao-slavery - boycots? Can a similar movement develop around Gold ? Gold-socialization ? Comments anyone ?

Black Blade

(05/06/2001; 03:17:47 MDT - Msg ID: 53123)

ANWR Petroleum and Environmentalist Racism

There has been a lot of opposition to oil drilling in the Artic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) by some environmentalists groups such as Club Sierra, some Alaskan Indians, and political opponents of George Bush. One argument is that drilling would destroy the beauty, value and critical habitats for caribou, polar bear, wolves and birds. Another argument is that production of oil from ANWR would yield only a 6 month supply of oil for the lower 48 states. These are the same arguments that were brought up in opposition to Prudhoe Bay oil drilling, production and the Alaskan oil pipeline. Prudhoe Bay has been in production for over 33 years and has provided as much as 10% of the US oil production. The argument is a feeble attempt to mislead the average US citizen. The facts are we really don't know how much oil exists on the North Slope.

There has been only one exploratory well drilled in ANWR in the 1960's by Chevron. Another lie put forth by the "Green" community is that local people will be hurt. In fact the Inupiat who live in villages stretching along Alaska's North Slope from Barrow eastward to Canada's border, support President George W. Bush's plan to open up the ANWR to drilling to reduce dependence on foreign oil. The refuge's residents say they need the money they could raise from lease sales for education funding and feel confident of overseeing low-impact drilling by the industry in an area their ancestors have roamed for 3000 years. The 33 years of activity at Prudhoe Bay shows the oil activity and wildlife are adapting. In a position paper drafted by leaders of the ANWR residents, they say the most dangerous and insulting view held by outsiders is the notion that our homeland is empty or should be made so.

The Inupiat find the environmentalists claims to be absurd and view them as na�ve. The Inupiat are outraged by an anti-ANWR drilling campaign that tries to play to the American self-image of independence by portraying the area as the last wild, unpopulated and pristine frontier in America. There have been outsiders in the area in the recent past. In the 1950's the US military built radar installations in the North Slope (including ANWR) called the Defense Early Warning (DEW Line) radar installation during the Cold War to track Soviet long-range bombers. Over about 50 years the military made quite a mess and incurred the wrath of the indigenous peoples. On the other hand, the Oil and gas industry is held in the highest regard by the Inupiat. Many have benefited with a high standard of living, educational opportunities, and community infrastructure and they owe much of that to revenues and royalties from North Slope oil development. One could conclude that the environmentalist and political activist community are racist and do not wish to see the indigenous peoples aspire to a better life.

A good read on this situation can be found in the Apr 27-May 3 issue of "Upstream" by Dann Rogers who reports that the "Greens are in the Mood for a Fight". He clearly illustrates much of the antagonism between the environmentalist community and the Inupiat. The Prudhoe Bay area has had no ill effect on the populations of wildlife in the North Slope. During winter, caribou can be found resting underneath the Alaskan Pipeline enjoying the warmth as radiant heat passes through the pipeline. In fact wildlife populations have thrived and grown over the last several years. If Prudhoe Bay is an example of the all around benefits that can be expected from petroleum exploration and production in the North Slope, then similar benefits can be expected from exploration and production in ANWR.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/06/2001; 03:34:33 MDT - Msg ID: 53124)

Signs point to $3 gasoline

http://www.msnbc.com/news/568974.asp
Snippit:

PLATTS OILGRAM NEWS reported that some oil companies have started stocking up on the numeral 3 to use in signs at their gas stations. Specifically, they are buying a "3 point," or the larger font used to denote three dollars, followed by a decimal, says Platts.

Black Blade: $3.00/gallon gas in the cards? Higher fuel costs will also fuel inflation - got a gold lifeboat?

Black Blade

(05/06/2001; 03:40:14 MDT - Msg ID: 53125)

The Credit Bubble Bulletin

http://www.prudentbear.com/credit.htmCheck out these ominous charts. It looks very ugly. Especially note the savings graph.

Black Blade

(05/06/2001; 03:57:38 MDT - Msg ID: 53126)

Greenspan Hopes U.S. Spends Its Way Out

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010505/business_stocks_week_dc_9.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - If Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is counting on the consumer to bail out the ailing American economy, his chances of success would appear slim to none. The betting in some quarters is the Fed may not be able to keep the Great American Spending Machine fired up forever because the jobs market is scaring a lot of people. The risk is that job insecurity could prompt consumers to pull back on spending, which would knock out the last peg that has so far held up the economy.

Black Blade: I agree. In spite of the near miraculous turnaround in the stock market on Friday - amazing what a well placed spin can accomplish. We are in a Recession and it would be obvious if the BLS data were not manipulated with various dubious statistical filters. Many "professional" investors were caught flat-footed on Friday when the unemployment data came out. Then the spin that the Fed would cut rates again and that all would be well. Another surprise in unemployment numbers or declining consumer confidence numbers could scuttle the Fed's best laid plans. Many may soon run for the cover and protection that gold can provide.

Black Blade

(05/06/2001; 04:32:02 MDT - Msg ID: 53127)

Gold hedging report flies in face of conventional wisdom

http://m1.mny.co.za/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256A440033A6CB?OpenDocument
Snippit:

The World Gold Council (WGC) can't be particularly pleased with the findings of the report it commissioned from the London Business School (LBS) on the impact of derivatives on the gold market. For the study flies in the face of perceived wisdom and shows that hedging had only a marginal impact on the dollar gold price � "a few per cent," in the words of Professor Anthony Neuberger, who led the LBS team.

Black Blade: The Hedging debate rages on. Yet another article on gold hedging. Miningweb seems to be Hell Bent on stating a case for gold hedging.

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/06/2001; 05:36:07 MDT - Msg ID: 53128)

Question for Another

Your purpose is to enlighten, no? When you refer to "Big Trader", to whom do you refer?

Very respectfully,

HBM

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/06/2001; 06:05:32 MDT - Msg ID: 53129)

A. W. Pink � especially for Lady Leigh

A. W. Pink � especially for Lady Leigh

A few words before the post that follows:

Mr. Pink, now deceased, was a remarkable Bible teacher whose teachings and writings have stood the test of time. What I am about to post was published in 1923. One can gain insight from A. W. Pink without agreeing with every single point that he makes. He might have a strong statement about the Papacy without having any animosity whatsoever against individuals who are of Catholic persuasion. No offence is intended and none should be taken. I would venture that at least half of the forum participants and lurkers and CPM customers have some interest in the emotional, moral and spiritual motives concerning the GOLD and SILVER question . It is for this reason that I post A. W. Pink.

Very respectfully,

HBM

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/06/2001; 06:07:43 MDT - Msg ID: 53130)

A.W. Pink and the Antichrist

The following is taken from the Book: "The Antichrist", by Arthur W. Pink. The book was originally published in 1923 by "Bible Truth Depot and was republished in 1988 by Kregel Publications. The excerpt is from pages 148 and 149 of the Kregel publication:

Excerpt begins -------------------------------------------------------------------

3. ANTICHRIST IN EZEKIEL
We shall notice here but two passages in this prophet. First, in 21:25-27�"And thou, profane wicked Prince of Israel, whose day is come, when iniquity shall have an end, Thus saith the Lord God; Remove the diadem, and take of the crown; this shall not be the same; exalt him that is low, and abase him that is high. I will overturn, overturn, overturn it; and it shall be no more, until He come whose right it is; and I will give it Him".

So far as we are aware, all pre-millennial students regard this passage as a description of the Antichrist. It pictures him as Satan's parody of the Son of Man seated upon "the throne of His glory". It sets him forth as the priest-king. Just as in the Millennium the Lord Jesus will "be a Priest upon His throne" (Zechariah 6:13), so will the Antichrist combine in his person the headships of both the civil and religious realms. He will be what the popes have long aspired to be�head of the World-State, and head of the World-Church.

"And thou, O deadly wounded Wicked One, the Prince of Israel, whose day is come, in the time of the iniquity of the end; thus saith the Lord: remove the mitre, and take off the crown" (R. V.). This is clearly Israel's last king, ere the King of kings and Lord of lords returns to the earth. He is here termed "the Prince of Israel" as the true Christ is denominated "Messiah the Prince" In Daniel 9:25. The description "O deadly wounded Wicked One" looks forward to Revelation 13:12, where we read, "The first Beast whose deadly wound was healed"! "Remove the Mitre and take off the crown," point to his assumption of both priestly and kingly honors. The Hebrew word for "mitre" here is in every other passage used of the head-dress of Israel's high priest! Finally, the statement that his "day is come�in the time of the iniquity of the end" establishes beyond doubt, the identity of this person.

In the opening verses of Ezekiel 28 we have a striking view of the Man of Sin under the title of "the Prince of Tyre", just as what is said of "the King of Tyre" in the second half of the chapter is an esoteric allusion to Satan. First we are told his "heart is lifted up" (v. 2), which is precisely what is said to his father, the Devil, in v. 17. Second, he makes the boast "I am God" and "I sit in the seat of God" (v. 2), which is parallel with 2 Thessalonians 2:4. Third, it is here said of him, "Behold, thou art wiser than Daniel; there is no secret that they can hide from thee" (v. 3), which intimates he will be endowed with superhuman wisdom by that one of whom the same chapter declares, "Thou sealest up the sum, full of wisdom" (v. 12). Fourth, it is said of him, "By thy wisdom and by thine understanding thou hast gotten thee riches, and hast gotten GOLD and SILVER into thy treasures" (v. 4).

Excerpt ends --------------------------------------------------------------------------

Very respectfully submitted,

HBM

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/06/2001; 06:10:00 MDT - Msg ID: 53131)

Thoughts on the Antichrist, and The day of the Lord

Lady Leigh, the first time I read this, "By thy wisdom�thou hast gotten GOLD and SILVER into thy treasures", a light came on for me. The Bible passage was written a few thousand years ago. A. W. Pink wrote his commentary back in 1923. All pointed to a one world government with a one world ruler who would accomplish total control of the world economy and implement his identifying mark to control the economic decisions of every person on earth. Even those who give no credence to our Bible generally would agree that we are rapidly approaching Global Union, cashless economic activity, and total control of the world's inhabitants via computer driven monitoring of all movement on the earth. As a result of the direction earthlings are heading, many now consider as inevitable what once seemed to be far-fetched. What seemed impossible now seems probable in the not too distant future. No ID #, no healthcare. No ID #, no driving privileges, no working privileges, no property ownership privileges, no pursuit of happiness allowed.

The conspiracy that so many speculate about does exist. The conspiracy is not of human origin. The conspiracy is supernatural (hence it moves forward across generational boundaries). It is a satanic conspiracy, a conspiracy to rule the world and to require all to worship, not Almighty God, but Satan, himself. This total government cannot take the reigns of power without economic control. Control of the world money supply is imperative. There will be ONE WORLD GOVERNMENT, and a single ONE WORLD DICTATOR, who will eventually require all to worship him. He will be wise enough to know that economic wealth resides in GOLD and SILVER. Transactions may be of the electronic sort, but the muscle behind the transactions will be his substantial control of the world's supply of physical GOLD and SILVER. I would hesitate to give SILVER any degree of importance save for the simple fact that God says that it will. It is impossible for God to lie therefore up until he renders GOLD and SILVER to be unable to deliver, you can bank on it (pun intended), GOLD and SILVER will deliver.

The Introduction of the Euro is striking enough, but the 20% backing requirement in gold ominous. There is a man, a Beast, behind the scenes, who will step forward at the opportune moment and assume control of the European Union, a Beast, not unlike Hitler, though is mouth will be smoother than oil at the very first and if it were possible he would deceive even the very elect. Of course the Almighty gives assurance that that will not be possible. Now this Beast will have in his economic arsenal the most powerful two weapons ever known to the world, GOLD and SILVER. He will have gotten "into his treasures GOLD and SILVER". Tree in the Forest @ # 52942 offers this hypothetical � "What would really be interesting is if the ECB really doesn't have the gold they claim to have backing the Euro." The answer to this hypothetical - the ECB really does have the gold to back the Euro, and the "Man of Sin", is waiting in the wings for his grand moment to step forward. We have the word of God on this very point.

We have from Biblical prophesy the simple guarantee that neither gold nor silver will lose their luster, that neither will become a relic of the past and that real wealth and financial power resides in GOLD and SILVER until the "Great and Notable DAY OF THE LORD", "THE DAY OF THE LORD�S WRATH", the time when the Lord will consume the Beast with the Spirit of His mouth.

What we have here is an assurance that up until "THAT DAY" GOLD and SILVER will have delivering power, wealth storing power, economic power and that it would be unwise to fall for the trap which the controlled media is laying, that "Gold has become a commodity only", that "it is neither money, nor a store of wealth".

We take the position that the day that "they who are the children of wrath" will cast their GOLD and SILVER into the streets and that those who "are not the children of wrath" will have been translated from this earth is the very day that scripture refers to as "THE DAY OF THE LORD�S WRATH. It is those who are left behind who will not be able to deliver themselves with GOLD and SILVER. This translation of God's saints will no doubt occur just prior to the commencement of the "DAY OF THE LORD�S WRATH" and for this reason we can be assured that it is more than acceptable for those who claim Christ as God and Savior to accumulate GOLD and SILVER up until the very end of the age. This answers the speculation by Horatio @ # 52920 as to what will occur at the second coming of the Savior.

Buena Fe @ # 52897 offered an imprecatory prayer in this regard "MAYDAY...MAYDAY...MAYDAY...come to my help Lord! The rich have defrauded the laborer of his pay! What the rich call WEALTH (US$) is just wood fiber...not REAL WEALTH-GOLD! Burn what they consider to be WEALTH...and raise up your standard - GOLD...as a testament to your promises to hear our cries�" Then Buena Fe in perfect context quotes James 5:1-8 "Go to now, you rich men, weep and howl for your miseries that shall come upon you. Your riches are corrupted and your garments are motheaten. Your GOLD and SILVER is cankered; and the rust of them shall be a witness against you, and shall eat your flesh, as it was fire. Ye have heaped treasure together for THE LAST DAYS. Behold the hired labourers who have reaped down your fields, which is of you kept back by fraud, crieth: and the cries of them which have reaped are entered into the ears of the Lord saboath. Ye have lived in pleasure on the earth, and have been wonton. Ye have nourished your hearts, as in THE DAY OF SLAUGHTER. Ye have condemned and killed the just; and he doth not resist you. Be patient therefore, brethren, unto THE COMING OF THE LORD. Behold, the husbandman waiteth for the precious fruit of the earth, and hath long patience for it, until he receive the early and the latter rain.

This of course leads us back to previously discussed passages, Ezekiel 7:19 and Zephaniah 1:18. The first passage reads, "They shall cast their SILVER in the streets, and their GOLD shall be removed: their SILVER and their GOLD shall not be able to DELIVER them in the DAY OF THE WRATH OF THE LORD: they shall not satisfy their souls, neither fill their bowels: because it is a stumblingblock of their iniquity. The second passage reads, "Neither their SILVER nor their GOLD will be able to deliver them in the DAY OF THE LORD�S WRATH; but the whole land shall be devoured by the fire of His jealously: for he shall make even a speedy riddance of all them that dwell in the land."

Come quickly, Lord Jesus. We gladly leave our modest accumulations behind.

HBM

The Invisible Hand

(05/06/2001; 06:27:03 MDT - Msg ID: 53132)

The message is getting out!

http://wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=22631The May edition of WorldNet magazine, WND's monthly print publication, deals with some red-hot issues dealt with in May's WorldNet, two of which are:
- Why the U.S. abandoned the gold standard;
- Is the gold market being manipulated today?

lamprey_65

(05/06/2001; 07:23:20 MDT - Msg ID: 53133)

Black Blade

It seems to me that Mining Web is biased toward big, hedged mines.

Some research on their ownership/financial backing might be in order.

Leigh

(05/06/2001; 08:37:57 MDT - Msg ID: 53134)

Hill Billy Mitchell

http://www.phc.eduHill Billy, thank you for your inspiring message this morning! I've been interested in this subject since childhood, and I guess that's why I gravitate toward gold. You eloquently (as always) summed up a great deal of astonishing information into a few easy-to-read paragraphs.

One question keeps bothering me, and I keep asking it here because it never gets answered to my satisfaction. If gold and silver are to be the stores of wealth in this future transfer of power, why is it that more people (who you'd think would be in the know) aren't accumulating it? There are lots of people involved in this New World Order business, many of whom are quite rich, and if all of them bought gold, the COMEX would empty out in an hour!

Hill Billy, I know you're an admirer of Mr. Ashcroft, and you might be interested in reading about a dinner he'll be at next week. These PHC events are really fun - you meet the most amazing people there. Wish you and Mrs. HBM lived closer by so you could attend as our guests.

USAGOLD

(05/06/2001; 09:48:35 MDT - Msg ID: 53135)

ET et al. . . .On Currency Competition

Quote from ET:

Randy asked me the other day what I thought about the "suffering" that has been caused by the US currency hegemony. Why do you think he would ask this? My guess is that he believes great suffering has come to pass and I certainly agree with him. However, he then goes on to say we should adopt another version of the same thing, apparently so the suffering can be spread around a bit.

--------------

I have spent more than a small amount of time analyzing and interpreting the Another/FOA message, and I think you have reduced their message to a very narrow interpretation that falls short of of the mark. The statement above is indicative. As a result, I thought I should comment on the subject because I think you've missed a great deal of their message. I hope to add to your thinking as well as to others who may have fallen into the same misreading of their analysis. The danger in this sort of thing as always is that I may not be saying things with which FOA and Another agree, but I think my recapitulation accurate and if I'm missing something, I hope the other participants will fill in the gaps. I will not comment beyond this on this subject, because, as always, I am sensitive to playing too large a role here at this esteemed table. Those who are bored with this sort of thing, I beg your indulgence. Those who revel in it, I think you will find much to chew on. . . .per below.

Onward. . . . .

You and Randy are correct in pointing to dollar hegemony as a source of much suffering in the world -- intended or not. In fact President Bush has expressed the same reservations, more or less in a backhanded way, in his criticisms of the IMF during the campaign. So none of us are alone on those concerns. I think however that you need to expand your understanding of what Another/FOA are trying to convey, because it is not a simple advocacy of the euro over the dollar -- but a much deeper and important advocacy of competition in currencies, much as we have competition in other realms within the economy. This lack of competition is the problem with dollar hegemony and makes it possible for New York based multi-nationals and international banks to make bad (non-repayable) loans in the third world and then turn around and impose stringent conditions through the IMF that strap the local economy and eventually send the people into the streets -- ala Indonesia a year ago -- agitating for "economic" justice. (And of course that's just one example of the excesses of a monolithic reserve currency) Years ago, such injustices would have been fertile ground for Communist agitators, but now with the fall of the Soviet Union perhaps the multi-national crowd has been unjustifiably emboldened. In the long run, competition for this market from Europe, with an agenda of its own, would be good for the dollar and the international economy as well as the U.S. and Europe, and therein lies the real thrust of the FOA/Another analysis.

Let me take this a bit deeper:

I do not believe that Another/FOA are advocating a fiat euro which would "replace" in toto the dollar. Instead they advocate the euro, dollar and gold should "compete" for the hearts and minds of ordinary people (in terms of the currency they employ to store wealth), important financiers (as a hedging methodology), and, yes, central banks and nation states (as a reserve asset). In the case of nation states, the competition would inherently create circumstances leading to each doing what is necessary to make their "reserve" better than the other "reserves."

Under such a regime, the importance of gold ownership, for nation states, as well as individuals, would not be diminished because any nation state is capable of dalliance along the road to currency inflation making it necessary for the other participants to "hedge" their holdings. It is in fact a novel concept built closer to the von Hayek foundation of competing currencies -- including gold -- than possibly your own reliance on a gold standard as the ultimate and only magic dart that will find the target's center.

In fact there is a danger there that you might have overlooked. Take for instance the widely disseminated Kemp/Polyconomics New Bretton Woods proposal of a gold standard being bandied about in the conservative press. That proposal pegs the price of gold at $300. A major problem quickly surfaces: Whatever's left of the U.S. gold supply would disappear completely within six months of posting the $300 price -- the work of Continental Europe begun in the 1960s/1970s will have been fully rendered. The danger of course is the gold standard you would like to see is not remotely connected to the gold standard others, more politically inclined would like to see, so you always end up with this warmed-over version of a gold standard that gets right back where we started.

As a matter of fact, I see the FOA/Another currency concept as closer to the tenets of libertarianism (and Jefferson) than a gold standard because of the exchange restrictions which inevitably follow. In other words, we would very well be right back in 1971 with the United States once again facing the prospect of shipping its gold reserve to Japan and Europe in defense of the over-produced dollar. (Unless of course, the price were set at something like $3000 to $5000 per ounce -- then you might have some equilibrium.) Idealistically the gold advocate would most certainly would like to see a gold exchange standard -- but at what price and what would be the economic consequences if it were to be set where it should be? Polyconomics offers up this arbitrary $300 price because it wouldn't break the current international system, but when it comes to real political/economic policy ideals and practical reality often clash. It's always nice to hear someone like Jack Kemp speak glowingly of gold, but before we roll over and cast adoring glances at the politician perhaps we should better understand what the politician is actually stumping for, and in the Kemp/Polyconomics case it is more currency hegemony under the guise of a free international gold standard, a hegemony paid for by the American people in the form of its gold reserve.

Currency hegemony is precisely the opposite of competition -- it is, in fact, the imposition of a currency, even gold (at a stated currency price, of course), on the population. As such the euro is important in that it challenges that hegemony, and does so with the key concept of utilizing gold as a "currency without a country" to act as a reserve for interventions if required -- a breakthrough. Re-read Mundell on this. You and I and the rest of this forum could be talking about the need for a gold standard now, tomorrow, the day after that and for all the days remaining in both our lives, and I do not believe we will be any closer to its imposition then than we are now -- thanks to the wayward and half-baked thinking on the part of some of the very gold "advocates" who are supposed to understand economic history well enough to anticipate some of the consequences. In other words, the gold standard probably isn't going to happen. In the meanwhile, practically speaking, the best option is for all of us, including the various nation states to own gold as a talisman against our own worst instincts.

If Randy is concerned about hegemony and its effect on various populations, I don't think it's because he would like to replace that same hegemonic error with another. I think he agrees with FOA/Another that competition paves the road to a better international monetary system. I do believe, as FOA/Another do, that with the euro we are talking about the currency of the future here, and I believe that the dollar will eventually be modeled after the euro. Not only that, I believe we are talking about, not just the currency of the future, but the international monetary system of the future -- for what its worth. Sometimes the world heads off in a direction even if we don't want it to.

Once again I'll reiterate what PH hinted at in his post: For most investors the world over, the ownership of gold is a pragmatic undertaking, and what FOA/Another are advocating is a practical, hands-on solution for the average investor -- personal gold ownership. I think Randy agrees with this position, as do I. I can envision private gold ownership as a necessity even under a gold standard -- because there is little doubt in my mind that if the government were to undertake a gold standard even under the best intentions, with Lewellyn Rockwell serving as Chairman of the Fed, it eventually would botch the whole scheme -- politics being what it is. (By the way, I can't imagine a currency regime at this late date that would allow only the circulation of specie. Therefore, you will always have various derivatives in circulation along with the government largesse, currency printing, tinkering with the gold price which threatens the value of the paper. Gresham rules.)

In the end, he who owns the gold, makes the rules. And it is the personal ownership of it that will carry the day on a practical level while governments will do, well ...... governments will do what governments do.

P.S. Watched "Trillion Dollar Bet" on Nova last night -- the story behind LTCM. Fascinating. Peter Fischer is interviewed and blames the LTCM mess on "hubris" -- the enchantment with the perfect mathematical model, that left out one thing -- the absolute unpredictability of human nature. The New York Fed structured the rescue of LTCM and let Sholes, Merton, Merriwether and company off the hook with a bailout. Merriwether has started another fund similar to LTCM -- believe it or not. All of which proves if you are big enough, and the judgment error large enough, the paper money crowd will always ride to the rescue if it can, shower you with money and blessings, drop the load on the public and then turn the other way when you offer to go back and do the very same thing all over again. May we all be showered with financial rewards for our mistakes. I will order the program from PBS and watch it again. I recommend it to all.

Also reading Deaver's look behind the scenes during the Reagan years. A quick, easy read that tells what President Reagan was really like. The man shunned polling and went completely with his innate political instincts (and he was nearly always right), refused to speak under a spotlight so he could see the faces of the people he was addressing and never took his suit or sport coat off in the Oval Office in deference to the institution of the presidency (even in the depths of the Washington summer doldrums) -- a far cry from what the last president managed to accomplish in that same office.

Humble Pie

(05/06/2001; 10:27:25 MDT - Msg ID: 53136)

FOA return to the forum

Now that you have your bag unpacked and got some rest . when are you going to unload on us ,waiting on pins and needles !

SHIFTY

(05/06/2001; 10:45:54 MDT - Msg ID: 53137)

Good to be home

It looks like I may never get caught up on the last two weeks.

$hifty

JMB

(05/06/2001; 11:05:00 MDT - Msg ID: 53138)

Ahhhhhh...

BLACK BLADE has me convinced that there's going to be a real problem in the aluminum can industry...there ain't gunna be none...so now you have to drink beer out of a bottle?

So who makes glass bottles? Maybe plastic would be cheaper? Can you imagine "The King of Beers" or "The Champaign of Bottled Beer" being dispensed in plastic? Nah

Welcome home SHIFTY, looking forward to your next song. I sure hope those Californians didn't corrupt you.

Mr Gresham

(05/06/2001; 11:12:15 MDT - Msg ID: 53139)

Michael

"too large a role here at this esteemed table"

On the contrary, you pop up consistently with "gravitas", a deep analysis revealing deep thinking. As a host most worthy of the name, you enhance your business by willing to make it "more than business" and taking risks by speaking out. You earn more and more respect with each month passing, I believe.

I'm now relishing taking your printed out posting, out into the sunshine, to enjoy reading at breakfast. Life is good, indeed!

SHIFTY

(05/06/2001; 11:29:13 MDT - Msg ID: 53140)

JMB

I spent most of the time in Arizona looking for old Dodge Power Wagons. Only spent three days looking for gold. Had no luck metal detecting. Needed a drywasher. I will not go back to the desert without one.

$hifty

(05/06/2001; 11:39:29 MDT - Msg ID: 53141)

Back of the Envelepe Calculations

Having decided to return to the classical gold standard, we want to estimate the equilibrium price. Since we shall avoid the tricky gold-exchange standard where one (USD) or two (USD & Pound) paper IOU's have a key position, equate the world GDP ( USD30 trillions) to CB gold stock (1 billion ounces). Presto! The equilibrium gold price is $30,000! What a tangled web is this?

auspec

(05/06/2001; 11:41:32 MDT - Msg ID: 53142)

Belgian/Gold TA

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/droke050701pv.htmlClif Droke in regards to what he sees as a "time wedge":
"This strongly confirms our analysis of the past several months that the Spring of 2001 would witness a historic bottom in the 21-year bear market for gold."

CD apparently sees something in the gold an Durban Deep charts that is quite encouraging. Does this make sense to you, Belgian, from a TA view? "Time Wedge"??

Come quickly, gold bull market! And Amen to HBM!
auspecfully

JMB

(05/06/2001; 11:54:26 MDT - Msg ID: 53143)

SHIFTY

All right, I'll bite.

What is a "drywasher"?

tedw

(05/06/2001; 12:00:23 MDT - Msg ID: 53144)

Anti-Christ

http://www.usagold.com
I wouldnt bring up the subject but someone else already has.
Before his death, the late Father Malachi Martin did an interview with Art Bell and gave his description of the anti-Christ, also prophecying that most of us would see the anti-Christ in our lifetimes. The fact that Malachi was an official exorcist with the Church lends credibility to his statement.

I realize that this is not really the forum for this but am only responding to HBM post. If anyone wants more information on this subject e-mail me at tedw@internetcds.com.

This may be related to some of the subjects discussed here as Europe is drifitng toward the establishment of a European Super State (with its own currency;the Euro). Who will be the head of this European Super State?

Black Blade

(05/06/2001; 12:03:53 MDT - Msg ID: 53145)

Lamprey_65 post #53133 - About Miningweb

http://www.mips1.net/mwir.nsf/Current/85256A020078CC3185256A0300031334?OpenDocument

You're right of course. "Follow the money." The following is a statement from moneyweb in the section "About miningweb."

Snippit:

theMiningweb.com. launched in January 2000, represents the first foray into international internet publishing for Moneyweb, the flagship website of Moneyweb Holdings. Moneyweb is an internet-focused publisher listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange [JSE:MNY]. The biggest minority stake in Moneyweb is held by Taita Holdings, a technology-focused investment company which plays an active role in the development of companies in which it invests. Taita is a joint venture between its chief executive, formerly SA's leading IT sector investment analyst Dr Duarte da Silva; and the JSE-listed duo of Black-owned African Harvest and financial services group Peregrine Holdings.

Yet they do claim to be unbiased and independent in their statement. Hmmm� There does not seem to be much of a dissenting opinion offered when controversial issues are presented. There does seem to be a big push on articles that try to put a good light on the practice of forward sales of gold. That probably should not be surprising as they are a SA investment publication and since overly forward sold AngloGold is the 800 lb. Gorilla in the SA mining industry it should not be surprising that they don't want to "rock the boat." Perhaps it is much the same reason why analysts for investment firms won't ever issue a "sell" recommendation for miserable companies - they hope to retain business or acquire future business dealings. At least that's my take on it.

- Black Blade

Belgian

(05/06/2001; 12:08:31 MDT - Msg ID: 53146)

Leigh and " THE QUESTION "

Yes, why aren't there any other physical gold-accumulators, who know what FOA/ANOTHER are supposing/speculating/ ????
If the gold for oil game is "THAT" enormous...what is witholding Big Buyers from accelerating the proces ?
Dear FOA/ANOTHER...that is my one and only question . Thanks

Mr Gresham

(05/06/2001; 12:09:26 MDT - Msg ID: 53147)

(Michael, that was a keeper!)

ge:
I think you need a 3-dimensional envelope to do that figuring on. I've always been suspicious of those "flat" extrapolations of either current money supply or GDP vs the number of gold ounces available.

The fact is (stuff from this week's Doug Noland to follow, hopefully) that you neither want to monetise the entire GDP, nor does all other currency disappear even if gold returns to prominence as the counterweight to excessive paper printing. (But what gold doesn't take over from currency, it may get as a wealth holding, so the calculations can vary wildly, so the simple calc may work in the end <-- (my "hey-wadduIknow?" disclaimer))

It's more a multi-variable question of what "market share" among moneys will gold return to? Yes, it may hit the $30,000 mark, but that will likely be after an inflationary printing of many more buckaroos than we even have now.

In current item-for-item purchasing power terms, if we saw a panic spike to (today's equivalent) $30k, that would IMO be time to lighten up. As a wealth holding, though, the first default amongst the $2 trillion in uninsured money market funds could start $2000 moseying on over toward each of those 1 billion ounces pretty quickly. So several factors may simultaneously contribute a stream of dollars toward hard assets.

Also, I've never completely understood FOA's description of the Europeans' willingness to let their dollar holdings be largely written off, but I'm appreciating better now their reasons for doing everything in the transition VERY GRADUALLY. (And not "crashing the system")

SHIFTY

(05/06/2001; 12:10:48 MDT - Msg ID: 53148)

JMB

A drywasher is a devise that processes dry dirt. It classifies out the larger rocks and lets the fine dry dirt flow down over riffles. Puffs of air from below the riffles blow off the lighter material and concentrates the heavy stuff .
Black sand and gold stay in and the worthless dirt is blown away. You then pan your concentrates (heavy stuff) and collect your gold.
:-)
$hifty

Black Blade

(05/06/2001; 12:11:49 MDT - Msg ID: 53149)

RE: JMB #53138

Personally I prefer "Beer - The Breakfast of Champions."

Seriously though, the aluminum industry in the NW is on hold for the next 2 years as Kaiser and others have sold their energy contracts at a profit and now are taking up production in Trinidad(?) maybe Aruba(?) where NG is plentiful. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Mr Gresham

(05/06/2001; 12:40:00 MDT - Msg ID: 53150)

Up On The Roof -- (?)

http://www.k12.hi.us/~lehua/classrooms1999_00/a24/pc_project/business/past/pc_tavern/pc_tavern.htmBonsai! (?)

(05/06/2001; 12:53:41 MDT - Msg ID: 53151)

Hey MK - thanks for a most thorough explanation. I frankly wish you would spend more time here than less. Your insights are most needed.

MK, I've followed this saga since the days at Kitco. I'm certainly in agreement that competition is needed in currencies as well as anything else. I believe I understand what these guys have been saying and up to a point I agree with all they have said. My problem with the entire scheme is that it is not competitive. If I understand all of you correctly, the currencies would be somewhat competitive with each other but it appears to me that gold is coming in a poor third. Since there does not appear to be any particular method to properly value gold, I question the value of hoarding it as wealth within this agreed upon scheme. That is the part of this idea I have attempted to address. I'm sure you and all the others advocating (I'm unsure if this is the correct term), this idea believe it the best that can be accomplished at this time. I don't necessarily agree with that as I do believe the marketplace will force upon society a sounder standard, if not a sound standard. I guess that is just a matter of opinion and we can leave it at that. Hopefully, we'll all live long enough to find out!

Once again, thanks for jumping in. Don't be a Stranger on your own forum! I'm off to Chicago for a week and taking my clubs. Best regards!

Usul

(05/06/2001; 13:04:26 MDT - Msg ID: 53152)

Big buyer

Why doesn't Big Buyer rush into gold? I believe that such entities are inevitably diversified into a number of different investment vehicles- most of which would suffer if a rush into gold were to develop and grow- you would see hedged mines and gold shorts going to the wall; there would be dislocations in currency exchange rates that would precipitate a number of LTCMs; in the ensuing financial crisis there would be defaults in the banking system that could potentially cascade following the precedent of Herstatt. In the meantime, Big Buyer takes a bath in their conventional investments. Therefore, no Big Buyer, through self-interest, will rush into gold until forced to by overwhelming circumstances. Well, that's my humble opinion anyway.

(05/06/2001; 13:05:59 MDT - Msg ID: 53153)

Belgian

Hey Belgian - thanks for the reply. I don't have an answer to your question. ANOTHER first came on the scene at about the time this trading in London was exposed. If I understand his explanation correctly, he is claiming that a certain amount of gold is flowing in one direction while oil is flowing in the other. As to the exact methodology, I haven't spent any time attempting to learn if it is publicly known. My comments were more along the lines of gold is freely traded in some circumstances by entities that know it is the real money.

(05/06/2001; 13:17:40 MDT - Msg ID: 53154)

lamprey, Cavan Man

Hey guys - thanks for the comments. I seem to be the only guy left that believes sound money will return. Everybody seems to be under the impression that government-imposed fiat currency systems are the best that can be expected in today's world. I think that when the credit bust starts to accelerate, some sort of standard will emerge. This has happened in every society where the fiat money has gone bad. I surely don't think this case will be any different, however, it is uncertain at this time what might emerge. I'm betting gold and silver pulls it out in the bottom of the ninth.

USAGOLD

(05/06/2001; 13:22:09 MDT - Msg ID: 53155)

ET. . . Thanks (!) and a Question for all??

Thanks for the kind words. Let me put it this, ET: I would not want to be a wealthy citizen of either the United States or the European Union without a significant gold holding under present circumstances. Does that adequately express, my level of faith in the respective governments of the political state's in question? I do not profess what is developing as heaven on earth, like the socialists would have you believe, but simply as what is developing. If that reflects a fatalistic view of modern society then so be it. Politics is the art of the possible. Finance is the art of the probable.

Fairways and greens, my friend. The sun came out today but the course is wet and unplayable. I did some gardening early. Thinking about The Legend of Bagger Vance while I did it. Trying to see "the field."

All: Since this is Sunday, and we've had a couple religious posts, here's a question for you: Who was it that characterized socialism as "the promise of the serpent?"

Mr Gresham

(05/06/2001; 13:29:25 MDT - Msg ID: 53156)

Usul

So Big Buyer is too big to maneuver his wealth without making too big a splash in the very small gold pond? Again, one of our benefits of being small.

But they must be able to "make inquiries" amongst the various markets worldwide -- Dubai? Shanghai? etc. We would hear nothing about it, of course.

The belief in the Greensput, and the ability of THEIR organization to come through a crisis owning a bigger market share, probably helps keep them fully invested in their ongoing "businesses".

Also, their belief in the continuity of markets, and the ability to jump on a trending gold price after psychology reverses. The ridicule of "gold bugs", and a host of other half-examined impediments to such a shift...

But that was the question I asked Another, about the stratification of the gold market, and "is there no middle?" , for the 10-millionaire who wants a million in physical.

Is there a special branch officer at the Treasury who will finally take the determined would-be "bullionaire" on a personal tour of the Fed NY basement, and show him "his" shelf full of bars?

It's just so hard for me to imagine these "captains of industry" taking NO for an answer, after making the determination to own gold in quantity. Are they really so few -- or so aware of the need to keep quiet in their quest?

That's what it comes down to: CBs, us little loudmouth wisecrackers, and big guys keeping vew-wy vew-wy quiet.

megatron

(05/06/2001; 13:57:47 MDT - Msg ID: 53157)

Big Buyer

The thought of riding the public transit system to your court case every day in front of the media after you've been bankrupted would not make me eager to step up to the plate. I'm of course taking about the Hunt Bros.Micheal Milken,etc. Every 'club' has it's rules/conventions and the Hunt's had to be smacked down in public to get the point across. When you are dealing with a world domineering force are you going to jar them into killing you? They can drop an atomic bomb on someone and still sleep, why would they not have an open threat against insiders who would attempt large gold purchases? Remember the 'accidental' bombing of the Chinese embassy? Obviously from my point of view, Buffet was no threat to anybody, and they merely worked around his little shenanigans. I sure if you live in Sicily
there are no street signs saying "Don't Move in on the Mafias turf, Thank You."

beesting

(05/06/2001; 14:02:09 MDT - Msg ID: 53158)

Wars and Gold!

Saw the video "Born on the 4th of July" last night ,which is a true story of a disillusioned Viet Nam war hero returning home to face life in a wheel chair. Which in turn prompted some more reading from Congressman Ron Paul's book,"Money Book."
Begin quotes from book:

Page 14:
Although it did not become apparent for decades, the Federal Reserve Act made possible the massive inflation necessary to finance our tragic entrance into WWI. The 1921 depression was one result of this depression.
More Federal Reserve inflation during the 1920s, combined with economic interventionism by both Republic and Democratic administrations, caused and perpetuated the Great Depression of the 1930s.
By that 1913 law, a 40% Gold cover for Federal reserve notes and 35% for federal Reserve deposits were required. The fact that it was not 100%(Gold Backed) showed that the central bankers "planned" more inflation.
If a country inflates under a Gold standard, Gold flows out of the Treasury,hamstringing(limiting spending) the government. Since a Gold standard enables the ""average person"" to restrain the government's attempt to inflate, control the economy,run up deficits, and FIGHT SENSELESS WARS, the central planners had to eliminate this fundamental American freedom to own Gold. This was accomplished with the Gold Reserve Act of 1934, which outlawed private ownership of Gold, prohibited the use of "Gold clause" contracts, and abolished the Gold coin standard. The law created the Gold bullion standard,destined to last only 10 years.
Since 1933 the dollar has lost more than 93% of its value in terms of Gold.
The politicians readily accepted the inflationist arguments of the intellectuals, since it was in the interest of the power-hungry politicians to ""destroy"" the system that gave the people, ""not the politicians"",POWER OVER THE MONETARY SYSTEM. As a result, control was handed over to the bankers and bureaucrats, as well as the politicians themselves.....etc. etc.
"There is no subtler nor surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debouch the currency,"Keynes had written in 1919. "The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not ONE MAN IN A MILLION is able to diagnose."

And this from page 32:
"People fight the Gold standard", said Ludwig von Misis,"because they want to substitute national autarky for free trade,WAR for PEACE, totalitarian government omnipotence for liberty."

""It is no coincidence that the 19th Century,(1800s) a time of Gold coin standard for the most part, was an ERA of PEACE. Nor is it coincidence that the 20th Contury combines wars with ""paper money"".

And this from page 30:
Government's only legitimate reason for existence is to protect innocent life and property from aggression, foreign or domestic. When it deliberately destroys the money, government is acting perversely, by harming innocent life and property. Short of intentional war, inflation is the most immoral act political leaders can commit. The legalized counterfeiting which is inflation must be ended--now! etc. etc.
In 1974 we reversed the unconstitutional 1934 law that barred private ownership of Gold. In 1977, Gold clause contracts were legalized. In 1979, a bill to repeal the Treasury's power to seize privately held Gold was passed....etc. etc. End of Ron Paul Quotes.( Capital letters and italics added for emphasis only).

Comments:
Now we begin to understand one of the real reasons governments want and perpetuate "paper money"! TO FINANCE WAR MACHINES!!!!! During the Viet Nam Era I asked myself this question:
Which would I rather have; A life of prosperity for myself and some of the friends I grew up with or be a little poorer and see the friends,"lost forever in Nam", home and trying to lead a normal life? Please ask yourself how would you answer this question?
Thanks for Reading....beesting.

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/06/2001; 15:15:55 MDT - Msg ID: 53159)

Excellent commentary, MK!

I enjoyed your walk through these monetary philosophies of our modern time, particularly those as forecast by ANOTHER and FOA. For as surely as I continually say these things, the point never seems to make it clearly through my type-written jumble of words. To the forum I have become as the constant static heard between the broadcast frequency channels of an AM radio. (But perhaps it is the only consequence to be expected for having "spread myself thin" as only some few in and outside The Tower know.)

But you, my friend, are a gifted writer indeed! I hope the many forum visitors all find time to stop by today for this degree of enlightenment you have provided in the clearest of transmissions. I, for one, shall keep my radio tuned in and turned on!

Rockgrabber

(05/06/2001; 15:21:14 MDT - Msg ID: 53160)

I love ya GUYS!

Mr. Hill Billy Mitchell, I love honesty in posts. Your heart feels it, post it! Thanks, close to my thoughts, and heart. The people who have been striving to obtain gold cannot be saved through any amount of monetary wealth. It can only buy you seconds of a lifetime. People do live with the now, and not later in life to, I can see.

Mr Black Blade beer is the breakfast of champions. I will not argue with that a bit. Today, just today I cracked a beer when I got up. I did research, and then I have been in the garden ever sinse. I live in So Cal. ((Dont worry about us a bit folks)), we all have our heads in the dirt. We party up untill our death. Its the way of the day. Mr. Black Blade you have been right all along, we sang , we played, we danced all summer long!!

About gardening, I see many of us have this hobby. It is a personel favorite of mine. I LOVE TO GARDEN. What great time to think. Especially when I use plants that the goverment does not want me using. Thanks for not having your heads in the dirt. I have a freind who claims ignorance is bliss....... I beg to differ. Not many who think ignorance is bliss around these parts!! May all of our gardens thrive!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Rockgrabber

(05/06/2001; 15:28:08 MDT - Msg ID: 53161)

USA GOLD

I want to express my thanks with everything I have. I bought a book a few years back. You wrote it, and I wish to thank you for relevant information. Most relevant. That book was a nice intro, but this website is priceless for info, or darn near. I just want to say thanks.

Who did say socialism was the promise of the serpent???? I cant wait to see who had such precise information. I love people who care about what is happening around them. Thanks for letting me know what is going on around me.

auspec

(05/06/2001; 15:44:56 MDT - Msg ID: 53162)

Zelotes: The GATA African Gold Summit

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/hamilton050701.htmlI always look forward to Adam Hamilton's next read, good guy to have on our side. This is a great read if you missed it. Snippet:
"The actual gold mining companies themselves can probably move the gold info-war to its endgame in a single trading day. All they have to do is jointly and publicly announce either a moratorium on all new hedging and forward sales and close out their existing hedges, which demonstrably depress the gold price, or else announce a pact to jointly limit production until the gold price climbs north of some arbitrary target, say US$500 per ounce. If the African gold producers that supply over a quarter of the annual supply of mined gold decide to force the hands of the anti-gold forces, the game is over and gold will be liberated. When all the voluminous evidence for official covert gold suppression is presented to these companies in Durban, they will likely be furious and may decide to act in a unified and public way that will rock the gold market to its foundations." END

Comment: Yes, the African gold suppliers contribute approx. a fourth of world gold supply and what they do CAN make a huge difference. What will AngloGold do as far as going along with any new hedging changes? Probably hedge more to compensate. What % of South African gold is produced by Anglo? Probably 1/2 of the total amount, but still the remaining companies can make a worthy stance. It is not just mining companies that will soon see the fraudulance hoisted upon them, but also mining union representatives, political leaders, and other significant players in S.A.. Will Anglo be able to take the heat? The S.A. producers have seen fit to help fund this conference, fortunately, and dirty deeds will soon find more daylight. GATA is heading into the belly of the beast. The gold endgame clock will be advanced significantly SOON.
Thank you GATA!

Tannehill

(05/06/2001; 15:53:36 MDT - Msg ID: 53163)

Netking @ U.S. Mint buys silver

http://www.silverinstitute.org/news/pr11272000.html

Mr. Netking finally found the article about the transfer of the last remaining portion of the stockpile to the Mint, the link given above.

snippet:
U.S. National Defense Silver Stockpile Eliminated

(Washington, D.C. � November 27, 2000) The U.S. Defense National Stockpile Center (DNSC) committed to deliver its remaining stockpile of silver, nearly 15 million ounces, to the United States Mint for its coinage programs. The final balance of silver will be shipped to the U.S. Mint over the next few weeks, effectively depleting the silver stockpile.

**************
So, 15 million ounces would be 2-3 years supply. This amount now is in agreement with numbers reported by the U.S.G.S.

That's all from Tannehill

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/06/2001; 16:07:45 MDT - Msg ID: 53164)

Leigh @ # 53134 and 53146 - THE QUESTION

Lady Leigh and Sir Belgian

At the risk of being accused of one who thinks he knows it all, I do think I know the answer. It has to do with the idea of "Walking in the Footsteps of Giants". We are walking in their footsteps (footprints); however, we are not walking in their shoes. We are not giants and could never walk in their shoes. Who are they? They are "Big Trader" and kin. They are the very wealthy and the very powerful. They own and control central bank reserves. They do not need physical possession of gold and silver, as we know it. Since they own and control the depositories of incredible amounts of 400-ounce bullion bars, a simple piece of paper represents true physical holdings to them. They have the keys to the vault and not only can take out their 400-ounce bars at will, but also have the power to refuse to release those bars which are owned by the Lilliputians (those who also hold a piece of paper but have no key to the vault). The giants use central banks and their vaults to control substantial amounts of the worlds gold supply and do not need a high fiat price unless and until the fiat which they also control gets exposed as to its real worth (hence the gold truly is their insurance policy). Then and only then will they allow the price of gold to rise to its true level in terms of fiat.

Now we who accumulate our small amounts, mostly in bullion coin form, are not the Lilliputians. We are generally "Little Bittie Working Libertarians", who simply position ourselves to benefit from the inevitable destruction of fiat, namely, the USD, because we see that the GIANTS hold physical 400-ounce bars for the same reason.

There may come a time before the total destruction of the USD when the pricing structure of bullion coins will separate from the paper price, which only truly represents the fiat price of 400-ounce bars. (The paper price is a derivative of the 400-ounce bars, which are stored in bullion banks and central banks, but not a derivative of bullion coins) Somehow the coin bullion buying "little bitties" have been duped into believing that the paper price of gold is also a derivative of bullion coins. This inadvertently works to the advantage of the "little bitties" in two ways. First it keeps the price down when we are accumulating. Secondly it drives the price of coin bullion up into nose bleed stratosphere because not only will the paper price continue to be perceived as deriving from supply and demand of bullion coins but when the 400-ounce price ignites due to fiat destruction the bullion coins can be melted into the 400-ounce variety if the "little bittie" buyers all become sellers. Either way we "little bitties" win. Our only enemy is impatience. One more note: - The Arabs are not "BIG TRADER" types, nor are they "little bitties". They are Lilliputians among a very significant class of pseudo rich who dwell in the earth.

Ok, I admit, that I am in over my head in this area.

Sheepishly submitted,

HBM

PS: How do those who have the keys to the vaults get by with this paper price manipulation? I refer you to Holtzman @ # 45018 which can be found in the Hall of Fame. "�Central banks ARE mines� How can a 'first-time' gold mine such as Harmony possibly compete? It survives only while a sufficient number of central banks choose not to mine the cost-free gold out of their vaults."

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/06/2001; 16:19:51 MDT - Msg ID: 53165)

Leigh - PHC

I was not aware of Patrick Henry College. I wouldn't mind sponsering a kid for summer camp some time. If you know of the need let me know. You could handle the transfer of the fiat for the fees for me. Also I would like a rain check for myself and Mrs. HMB. Will let you know someday when we are going to be in the area. You would enjoy my wife more than me. She does real things that count. She home educated all of our three daughters with very little help from me. For all of her power she is a rather meek person. She laughs and cries instantly and makes one feel that one has been in the company of an angel.

Some day we will meet. Until then I am

Sincerely yours,

HBM

auspec

(05/06/2001; 16:21:32 MDT - Msg ID: 53166)

My How Times Change

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/baron1031.htmlThis is reposted {again} from Canuck #48914 and has been the matrix for MUCH discussion. Snippet {posted in 1997}:
"Second, if true, the US would have a particular interest in coordinating the funnelling of gold bullion into the Middle East in order to constrain the price of oil from rising to $40/barrel as it should be given the demand/supply situation in crude oil and maximization of Middle Eastern utilization capacities. The US wants to maintain the illusion that oil is not becoming increasingly scarce in order to avoid price inflation at home thus exploding the market bubble.....they want to avoid a 1973-74 crisis at all cost. Stability in oil prices may have come through past transactions of US treasuries to the Middle East in exchange for "price stability favours" but the Arabs increasingly have requested the real store of value: bullion. Thus the Americans may be actually orchestrating the gold sales of other CBs in the interests of "global oil price stability" objectives convincing the Australians and lesser players to sell their gold for the short term objective of containing a price rise in oil that the Saudis are under increasing pressure at home (Islamic pressures) to let go (as the Sheik suggests) .. Note that "officially" the major gold holders, the US, Switzerland, Germany and France (and most certainly England) have hung on to their CB supplies while other lesser players have been "convinced" to sell under the ruse that "gold no longer plays the hedge or security roll it once did." END

Comment: In regards to: "Note that 'officially' the major gold holders, the US, Switzerland, Germany and France {and most certainly England} have hung on to their CB supplies.."
RIGHT! Shows how much the world can turn 'on its axis' in but 4 years. Other than France ALL have serious questions {or absolute answers} in regards to a compromised CB gold position. Where will 4 more years find these excuses for financial management? "Most certainly England"??????? HA. They will be first 'into the abyss'!
a

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/06/2001; 16:52:34 MDT - Msg ID: 53167)

Cavan Man

Sir

I am half way through "The Education of Henry Adams", as per your recommendation. Having read to this point I have come to two conclusions. Number one, the book is very philosophical in a most unusual way. Number two, you and I have much in common, for I do not know anyone personally, myself excepted, who would read the book through. The book has much to offer but requires much effort on the part of the reader.

Your friend,

HBM

Elwood

(05/06/2001; 16:52:44 MDT - Msg ID: 53168)

USAGOLD (05/06/01; 13:22:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 53155)

------
All: Since this is Sunday, and we've had a couple religious posts, here's a question for you: Who was it that characterized socialism as "the promise of the serpent?"
------

Pope Pius XI
Divini Redemptoris
March 19, 1937

"With eyes lifted on high, our Faith sees the new heavens and the new earth described by Our first Predecessor, St. Peter. While the promises of the false prophets of this earth melt away in blood and tears, the great apocalyptic prophecy of the Redeemer shines forth in heavenly splendor: "Behold, I make all things new." "

auspec

(05/06/2001; 16:53:00 MDT - Msg ID: 53169)

FOA & ALL... A Simple Question?

Why the LBMA volume?

Welcome back, FOA.

Black Blade

(05/06/2001; 16:58:01 MDT - Msg ID: 53170)

Greenspan to Take Part in BIS Meeting

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010506/business_economy_greenspan_dc_16.html
BASEL, Switzerland (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan and European Central Bank President Wim Duisenberg will both take part in a meeting of central bankers on Monday at the Bank for International Settlements in Switzerland.

Black Blade: Cheetah and Dim Wim as a "Tag-Team?" Talk about serpents. Wonder what they will be discussing? ;-)

Cavan Man

(05/06/2001; 16:59:37 MDT - Msg ID: 53171)

Sir Hill Billy

You give me much too much credit.

Black Blade

(05/06/2001; 17:04:29 MDT - Msg ID: 53172)

Generators, Davis meet Wednesday

http://www.contracostatimes.com/partners/nf/generators_20010506.htm
Snippit:

When the shareholders of Duke Energy Corp. (NYSE:DKE) gathered for the company's annual meeting, Chief Executive Richard Priory likened California's business climate to that of a Third World country: "It's no different than if it was Ecuador or Peru and we had investment decisions to make in those countries."

Black Blade: Nice way to put it. The "Golden State" - Hmmm...

Cavan Man

(05/06/2001; 17:07:08 MDT - Msg ID: 53173)

tedw

I am somewhat familiar with the late Fr. Martin thru his interview with Bell and some of his writing. He also predicted the second coming a couple of years ago--timing off so far as we know. Also has writtien that the RC Church is the only way over to the other side---complete balderdash. However, his credentials as an exorcist are second to none.

Black Blade

(05/06/2001; 17:32:21 MDT - Msg ID: 53174)

Are lights going out in California?

http://www.WorldNetDaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=22700
Geoff Metcalf interviews state Sen. Tom McClintock on power crisis

Snippit:

I had a group of analysts from the Association of California Water Agencies come through the other day and they say it could be as many as 84 days. It's a dire situation and it is something that the governor cannot spin his way out of. It is a very simple problem: We have far more demand for electricity than we have a supply of electricity.

Black Blade: I too have heard the same assessment myself. We are in recession and an energy crisis in California of this magnitude will drive a stake through the economy. The energy crisis is spreading as the same fundamental problems in regard to energy is present throughout much of the US. People were afraid of Y2K, and yet something potentially worse looms over the horizon. Grab a "gold lifeboat."

tedw

(05/06/2001; 18:20:49 MDT - Msg ID: 53175)

Cavan Man

http://www.usagold.com
Re: Father Malachi Martin

You are mistaken if you believe that Malachi thought the Roman Catholic Church was the only way to the other side.It is not of course. Malachi made it clear in those interviews that he thoght that good people of other faiths could find salvation.

Personally, Im not Catholic so I have no vested interested in the propositon, but Malachi is no longer around to defend himself.

Repentance, and loving God and your neighbor is what is required: not belonging to any particular Church.

JMB

(05/06/2001; 18:32:58 MDT - Msg ID: 53176)

TEDW

Your opinion is shared by many people. But as you know, it is not the teaching of the Bible.

tedw

(05/06/2001; 18:34:21 MDT - Msg ID: 53177)

http://www.usagold.com
Al Fuchino, if your out there what do you think of the possibility of $3 gas this summer.?

I noticed today as I drove by a few stations that the 3 in the gas price is the same size for the dollar as the cents'so I dont know how credible the report of stations buying big 3's is. What say you Al?

Anybody else notice whether the 3's are the same size in the dollar position as the cents positon in their area?

tedw

(05/06/2001; 18:34:21 MDT - Msg ID: 53178)

tedw

(05/06/2001; 18:38:39 MDT - Msg ID: 53179)

JMB

http://www.usagold.com
This is not an appropriate forum for religious discussion JMB, but repentance and loving God and your neighbor is certainly the teaching of the bible.

It is the Holy Spirit that causes and brings us to repentance whether we realize that or not. Pesonally, I think its entirely possible for a person to be a Christian and not realize he is.

JMB

(05/06/2001; 18:57:57 MDT - Msg ID: 53180)

TEDW

Please excuse the inappropriateness of my discussion on this forum.

Now you say, "It is the Holy Spirit that causes and brings us to repentance whether we realize that or not." Maybe change the ending to "...whether we want to or not."

The second paragraph is beautiful but why not end it with, "...it's entirely possible for a person to become a Christian having not wanted to." (It sure happened to Paul.)

Cavan Man

(05/06/2001; 19:45:25 MDT - Msg ID: 53181)

tedw

Sir, you are wrong. I don't make things up. I read a longish essay Father Martin wrote that was published on the www by a RC Church somewhere in Arizona. Perhaps the essay was a fraud. BTW, being a former RC, I can tell you that is what was taught by the Church; all non-RC's won't pass muster. No more on this subject from me.

Journeyman

(05/06/2001; 19:55:50 MDT - Msg ID: 53182)

You are NOT alone!! @ET

Hi ET!

I'm on a "foreign" computer & can't easily come to yur aid -- It'll be another week & a half!

But I'm still with you. Hard money will rise again!!

Regards,
Journeyman

Canuck

(05/06/2001; 20:10:54 MDT - Msg ID: 53183)

Gold for oil

I will offer a little tidbit on the ME oil for gold theory.

I have read and re-read FOA and Another's suppositions many times and have come up with this.

I went back to the POO and noticed the rapid acceleration in early 1999. A 'EIA' page suggested that the rising POO was due to Y2K scares, hoarding and stockpiling. This theory begins to fall apart after Jan. 2000 because the POO hung in over $30 for most of 2000. Even in the latter stages of 2000 and into 2001 the POO hovers near $30.

So what happened in early 1999?

Well I think Greeny began the 'pump' and oil producers not happy with getting X cents on the dollar began the process of hiking their oil. Why would they part with their oil for a 'smaller' dollar. As FOA has said repeatedly, the POO is not a supply/demand issue but a currency valuation issue.

The oil producers, I believe, hold the dollar for ransom. They can ask for $20 or $30 inflated dollars (as we have now) or $19 + X gold. A barrel of oil is a barrel of oil.
They bellow, "..pay me whatever you want...as long as its worth one barrel of oil."

We have learned recently of gold reserves changing status to 'custodial', who is to say that the $19 + X gold has put further gold into the 'custodial' stockpile, the custody of course, in the hands of the ME. Maybe more gold than we know is now non-reserve?

The trade deficit as we know has bit into the gold stockpile, maybe Christian has a point on 'payment POG'.

'Your money for nothing and your chicks for free' is hogwash.

Canuck.

Gold Trail Update

(05/06/2001; 20:30:53 MDT - Msg ID: 53184)

The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated

The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.

Belgian

(05/06/2001; 21:13:45 MDT - Msg ID: 53185)

Auspec....TA and crystal balls

Droke C. is undoubtly, an experienced chartist. But I've learned to relativate the usefulness of TA and Fundamentals.
Both aren't reliable (profitable) in abnormally extended periods of rise and decline. Drooy is worth a study on its own. IMO, it is literally a "Time"-bomb, with the emphasis on Time. And for the time being, Drooy and Gold (in general), are in a very positive position from TA (and fundamental) standpoint (FWIW). Altough I could write a book about all(fascinating) aspects involved in Drooy, I'm not a Drooymateur. Briefly two arguments : Time might be extremely handicapping for its future and who are we to know the finesses of its hedgebook.
Sir, please do remember that we still are in an extremely, speculative-oriented, period and environment. I've seen a similar time-wedge for TVX (and alikes). POG is also in a downward edge and a break above 275$ is supposed to give way for 300$+...etc...etc.
But all this beautifull optimistic stuff can be blown away in a matter of no time. The more knowledge we gather, the more cautious we judge and act. That's why physical gold gives me so much peace of mind.
And young wolves must act as young wolves and have their eys on fast moving preys. With my 50 summers and winters, I prefer the serene and intrinsic beauty of the yellow shiny.
You surely do understand what I'm trying to communicate.
Succes !

SHIFTY

(05/06/2001; 21:18:21 MDT - Msg ID: 53186)

Periodic Ponzi Update PPU

http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htmNasdaq 2,191.53 + Dow 10,951.24 = 13,142.77 divide by 2 = 6,571.38 Ponzi

Looks like they were busy while I was away.

RossL : Thank you kind Sir for the link.

$hifty

Al Fulchino

(05/06/2001; 21:42:16 MDT - Msg ID: 53187)

Ted W / All

you: Al Fuchino, if your out there what do you think of the possibility of $3 gas this summer.?

me: Hey Ted, how are ya? A while back I wrote here, if I remember correctly, that we would see something like a 25-50 cent increase over last years prices. Not so far fetched, is it? We are sitting on top of those prices of last year right now.

you: I noticed today as I drove by a few stations that the 3 in the gas price is the same size for the dollar as the cents'so I dont know how credible the report of stations buying big 3's is. What say you Al?

me: In all likelihood, the 3's that you see *are* the same size and there are a couple of reasons why this would be so.

a. The larger "1" that is in the dollar position often yellows over time and a station owner would reasonably choose to keep his sign fresh looking. So he just grabs a "1" from his decimal numbers. Hope I made that clear, if not just ask and I will try again.

b. Since the price insert package usually have fewer of these numbers that go in the dollar position than all the numbers from 0 thru 9 that go in the decimal side, whoever is doing the price change may just be grabbing whatever surfaces first from his shelf or pile.

So these would be two reasons. And they are the most likely.
And by the way, I do not own any $3 inserts hahaha. But I know where to order them. BTW, my lowest priced station is 1.649 for regular.

Now, as to the point of $3 dollar gasoline. It can definietly occur, especially in areas where reformulated product is in very tight supply. I have pointed out here in the past, that the current supply problem is largely from this EPA mandated formula. This gasoline is scheduled to be in storage tanks for resale at different upcoming dates and times, yet the price surge comes before hand, due to the fact that the tanks must be purged of the old first. So the new gas comes in ahead of schedule, so that no old formula remains in the tanks.
Of course this is only part of the picture. It is summer. OPEC did get their act together. And yes refineries have their own issues. In addition, as inflation watchers well know, the intrinsic value of the paper that we trade for this fuel is not what it used to be.

Also, as the Lundberg letter pointed out recently, higher prices are the oil industry's and the customer's saving grace. Suprised to see me post this? Don't be. Higher prices, eventually bring in more product or its replacement.

I have a deja vu attitude about all of this. We will all get used to whatever price it settles out at. I remember gas at 32.9 when my Dad would pull into the neighborhood station. And others here likely remember even better. But it means nothing to my kids. Their memories will be of 99 cent gasoline hahaha. And remember gasoline is really a miraculous product.

Thanks for beckoning me here for a few moments. It is always enjoyable.

Mr Gresham

(05/06/2001; 22:19:14 MDT - Msg ID: 53188)

Stephen Roach

http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-bin/bbs.pl?read=142799Don't miss this hearfelt statement from an econ pro.

And now, off to the Trail...

Goldfly

(05/06/2001; 23:01:23 MDT - Msg ID: 53189)

Michael's Question

How about this?"If My requests are not granted, Russia will spread its errors throughout the world, raising up wars and persecutions against the Church. The good will be martryed, the Holy Father will suffer much and various nations will be annihilated."

----The Virgin Mary to the Children at Fatima in July 1917, three months prior to the Bolshevik revolution.

Goldfly

(05/06/2001; 23:03:17 MDT - Msg ID: 53190)

Or this?

One of my all-time favorites
Socialism will work in only two places-
Heaven: Where the don't need it, and
Hell: Where they already have it.

-Winston Churchill

gidsek

(05/06/2001; 23:17:58 MDT - Msg ID: 53191)

MK @ USAGOLD

Terrific post earlier, one comment if I may.
--------
"In fact there is a danger there that you might have overlooked. Take for instance the widely disseminated Kemp/Polyconomics New Bretton Woods proposal of a gold standard being bandied about in the conservative press. That proposal pegs the price of gold at $300. A major problem quickly surfaces: Whatever's left of the U.S. gold supply would disappear completely within six months of posting the $300 price -- "
---------
Wanniskis' scenario doesn't include a "peg" to gold in the sense that the USG will sell the stuff for $300 (if by the U.S. gold supply you mean the 8000 tonnes that the treasury supposedly has). The idea is to manipulate the money supply, dollar "liquidity" if you will such that the market will price gold at $300 an ounce.

That being said it seems like a down-right silly idea to me.

First, I haven't been able to figure out the reason for that $300 dollar an ounce figure other than than that Jude feels for whatever reasons that there aren't enough bucks in the economy and that there should be somewhat more than there are now. Jude has refered to Greenspan as a "deflationist".

Second, if/when international investment patterns and capital flows change or reverse and the US was committed to keeping the market price of gold at $300/oz I shudder to think what price US bonds would fetch if that is all there is on offer to "sop up" all those extra dollars. Perhaps thats what you meant? That gold sales would be forced upon the US in order to adhere to a $300/oz policy? That could well be true but I know it is not a part of Wanniskis' or Kemps' thinking.

Thirdly W & K seem unaware that the price they favour fixing is that of a type of paper and not that of gold at all. I wonder how well the US economy would function with monetary policy devoted to managing the price of a small subset of derivatives.

I read and enjoyed Wanniskis' treatise on supply side economics but this gold price idea of his is from another planet.

gidsek

Black Blade

(05/07/2001; 00:15:09 MDT - Msg ID: 53192)

Layoffs Renew Recession Fears

http://washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A45726-2001May4.html
Snippit:

The unemployment rate rose to 4.5 percent from 2.3 percent in March, with 6.4 million Americans now out of work and looking for jobs. Most forecasters expect the jobless rate to rise to 5 percent by the end of the year. "�over the past 50 years, there had never been back-to-back months of declining payroll employment without a recession following."

Black Blade: If next set of unemployment numbers are as bad or worse than those released on Friday, it could crater the markets as consumer confidence continues to wane. I suspect that that will occur.
View Yesterday's Discussion.

Black Blade

(05/07/2001; 00:23:49 MDT - Msg ID: 53193)

Of Golden Lifeboats - WSJ Article

http://www.thebulliondesk.com/DJNews\4861414.htmSnippit:

"I've sold more gold coins to stockbrokers over the past nine months than I have over the past 15 years," says Mr. Ritchie, head of Monetary Portfolio Consultants in Scottsdale, Ariz. Although no one is keeping hard statistics, anecdotal and other evidence suggests that some shell-shocked investors may be putting less money into the stock market and more money into so-called hard assets.

One appealing feature of hard assets is that they have intrinsic value and will always be worth something. But the primary lure is that hard assets are negatively correlated with the equities and fixed-income markets. Thus, when stocks and bonds fall, the values of hard assets typically rise.

A study from Ibbotson Associates of Chicago found that in 1973 and 1979, two years impacted by oil-price shocks, commodity-related hard assets outperformed the stock market, returning 32% in 1973 and 70% in 1979.

Black Blade: As many of us have speculated. Manning the Golden lifeboats. And we are in the shadow of an energy crisis as well. From the mainstream press no less. Check Mate!

justamereBear

(05/07/2001; 00:40:17 MDT - Msg ID: 53194)

Black Blade

Hear!! Hear!! to both the last posts

j'Bear

Belgian

(05/07/2001; 02:39:06 MDT - Msg ID: 53195)

HBM/AUSPEC/USUL/GRESHAM/

HBM: I do accept the vision (yours also) of the "very powerful" and "very wealthy" . But there is something fatalistic in that notion of an all overwhelming force.
I rather agree with Sir, Gresham that there definitely are "captains" who can rock the goldboat. The simple maths, already done here, are enough reason, to hold on to "the question". (intellectual honesty)
Usul, suggests some fear, to take any action against the very powerful (somewhat mythical). As I said before...there are still pirates around. This logic is constantly disturbing me in accepting that all are ruled all the time.
The first space-tourist already happened. What does it take more to sop up 1.000 tonnes of gold in one go ? A wolf in sheepskin ?

Auspec : Zelotes-#53162
In contrast wih most of us here, I do consider the goldproducers as the third force in gold with their underground reserves. It is a very brave initiative from GATA to work on their mobilisation, despite their fragmentation (big + small miners-globally). The GATA-pressure might force them to change the unfolding speed of what I strongly suspect as a hidden agenda, collusive or not. The more they order so called neutral intellectuals to do studies (LBS) and publicise them...the more I suspect they have to hide an essential link in the total goldpicture. The entire goldproducer community is dominated by the Big five. In spite of the fragmentation-handicap, they do not behave in a normal way. I can only speculate on their deeper motives. Frustrating, isn't it.
In all communiques they are issuing...I read more between their lines than what they actually try to make us believe.
Maybe some paranoia is taking hold of me (smile).
Goldproducers have the capacity to create gold-euphoria at the right moment. They don't have to accept pers� the gloom and doom. They have thousands of underground tonnes to defend and valuate. One day all this small and big fishes will swim into the same direction even if it has to be against the current. They will be involved in the revaluation of gold.
Naive ?

Netking

(05/07/2001; 03:53:30 MDT - Msg ID: 53196)

Another golden thought.

"Living in a garage doesn't make you a car any more than going to a Church makes you a Christian...even rats can go to Church." It's what we do with what we believe that counts - my dimes worth friends.

Topaz

(05/07/2001; 07:09:12 MDT - Msg ID: 53197)

Europe-wide Governance.

Theres a lot of talk from Europe lately relating to a shift in EU operation from "union" to "government" - with all the attendant noise (mostly) anti - and pro.
The doomsayers of course have a mountain of data (factual and anecdotal) to dismiss such a notion out-of-hand however the concept simply won't go away.
On face value it seems a ludicrous proposal - Who'd hand over their Economic, Monetary, Souvereign and Fiscal rights to Brussels no matter how well planned the "union" appeared? - Well!!.....It may not be all that bad an idea after all, and certainly good for Gold.
Our psudo-democrasie's (Yes, the one's where much ado is made about freedom, voting, rights - yudda) all apparently suffer from the same illusion - we conceptually control, via the Ballot-box, our own destiny "EXCEPT" that which is the very lifeblood of our nirvana......."The Money".
A democratic system cannot operate when "Government" has direct control of Monetary policy, or so it seems...and the EU, in persuing a Gov't role, would be also considering a reduction in it's Monetary management capacity.
Well, not exactly it's "management" role but I think it fair to assume they would relinquish the ultimate denominator role to "others".....
.....and what "Other" asset class provides this "outstanding" ultimate denominator spec? Why Gold of course!

aunuggets

(05/07/2001; 07:36:02 MDT - Msg ID: 53198)

Lease Rates In Negative Territory ???

www.kitco.comNoticed lease rates at (minus) -1.9000 percent this morning on Kitco quotes. Guess the BBs are now going to start paying "US" to take their "worthless stuff" !! (big grin)

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/07/2001; 09:42:35 MDT - Msg ID: 53199)

Over One Hundred Years Old...in *this* particular form (there's no telling what may have preceded)

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.htmlThese coins have been the embodiment of wealth since before you were born. The gold contained therein has had a steady lineage of ownership since the day it was laboriously wrested from the firm grip of Mother Earth. It was fully owned yesterday, and even as we speak it is owned today; and will be tomorrow. Will history count you among the unbroken line of living souls who held sole and undisputable ownership (meaning, possession) of this "wealth of kings"? There is only one way to make it so.... engage.

Broken Tee

(05/07/2001; 09:45:04 MDT - Msg ID: 53200)

Gasoline Watch

Cost of Gas at a neigborhood 7-11 in Denver, Colorado this morning $1.75.9. Up 6 cents from last week.

Broken Tee

(05/07/2001; 09:52:56 MDT - Msg ID: 53201)

Gasoline Watch - Clarification

grade of gas in question, Regular Unleaded

(05/07/2001; 10:05:08 MDT - Msg ID: 53202)

Mr Gresham msg#: 53147

In search of that 3-dimensional envelope, I wander into the jungle of ideas:

I guess there is a difference between the classical gold standard (pre World War I) and the gold exchange standard of Bretton Woods and interwar period (between WWI & WWII). DeGaulle's major monetary adviser, the classical gold-standard economist Jacques Rueff was very insistent on this difference. In the gold-exchange standard, one paper currency is as good as gold. I vote for the classical one. http://www.mises.org/money/4s5.asp

Trade cycle can occur even with 100% gold backing says Mises:�. "The monetary explanation of the trade cycle is not entirely new. The English "Currency School" has already tried to explain the boom by the extension of credit resulting from the issue of bank notes without metallic backing. Nevertheless, this school did not see that bank accounts which could be drawn upon at any time by means of checks, that is to say, current accounts, play exactly the same role in the extension of credit as bank notes. Consequently the expansion of credit can result not only from the excessive issue of bank notes but also from the opening of excessive current accounts." �. Enjoying myself, I vote for the abolition of the fractional reserve banking. The difference between M1, M2 and M3 whither away.

Well, if we all agree on these points, Money/GDP ratio climbs to at least 0.5 to 0.7.

Galearis

(05/07/2001; 10:18:43 MDT - Msg ID: 53203)

On silver: an email to Rhody

http://www.gloomdoom.com/05-02-01.htmlI thought I would share an email with the group. As gold and silver bugs, we can all, from time to time, sadden under the weight of doubt. So this becomes a "spin" and a rationale for what we are and why we do it. I hope it finds some connection with the group - and cheers up those of us (me to) who from time to time question the reality of the times and our responses to it. The article I refer to is in the link above - which is recommended.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I don't share your temporary gloom about the future of hard (pm) asset money, my dear brother. I don't believe anything has changed significantly at all. It is still "it's the dollar, stupid" and the stock market mania - derivative driven both; the dollar derived from nothing and representing nothing and stocks and derivatives over-valued in dollars that are themselves "overvalued".

I know your moods can overwelm. "They" may even, as you say, be able to keep the POS papered down in price (or frozen) for a time even when there are NO above ground stocks left. But that that simply underlines/confirms the reality that the present COMEX market is not real. It would BE the confirmation of the death of COMEX. At worst it would be concurrent with the death of western (or all) stock markets and just another symptom of the fatal malaise.

The only change I see in most of the writings of pundit bears are now focusing increasingly on this alone. They ignore the SMs because they really don't have to be discussed - simply because they are not performing rationally. They focus on their illogic and are a source of hard (?) information and a lot of entertainment value of the follies of human behavior. This is what the article below ends up saying. It's not the Titanic image that works in this scenario, it's the plane taking off and reaching into the fatal stall.

Meanwhile PHYSICAL gold, bullion and coin, demand continues to roar and we are seeing the shortages talked about - as lately as yesterday by an out-of-the-loop collectibles dealer who cannot find new stock. I have little doubt that Kodac and other users have a fatal disease - they, as clients of the Silver Users' Institute, are part of the problem and will also have to pay the price. When the great ship stalls and crashes and ALL (?) paper burns, those who bought the bullion will have something, those that didn't won't.

It all boils down to perception: ask yourself why sterling is so pricey still - and even more so. Is it because these items are more serviceable than stainless steel - or is it because the buyers and sellers of used sterling are still dealing in it as a fabricated asset money? Why, in turn, would people pay outlandish prices for 10K gold that is only .416 pure? The answer is public perception. The public, even our head-in-the-sands western public, still consider this material as money cast into forms.

All is driven by perception - incorrect or not - from the belief for those in the SMs that the FED will continue to inflate in a "healthy" fashion to keep the bull alive, the "value" of the USD, to the pms that ARE ALL considered hard money items. Sterling and silver, 10K, 14K, 18K and bullion coins will be money - they still are to the public. Remember always when you walk in the antique shows that this is what drives the curious prices for sterling AND gold, that both the dealers and those that buy look on this material as money assets. Why WOULD people purchase and pay outlandishly for these impoverished gold amalgams if MOST of this is NOT the perception. The same can be said for the less impoverished amalgams involving silver.

The vast majority of us will be vastly the poorer in life style after the dust settles. Worst case scenario: if we have a "barter rich" economy, we will still be the richer amidst an ocean of poverty stricken moral majority people that never thought all this was very interesting, bank account proponents, dot comers and other speculators in paper. And that is what hedging is all about, yes? I will have the junk silver, the gold rings and sterling scrap to haul around with my weigh scales to the local farmers markets (and new-focus flea markets) and I will be trading for my daily bread. I will know that then, as now, the public will STILL consider this material the superior asset. I will not (probably) even then be much cursing Al Greenspan, who fought the good fight and did what he thought could stave off the inevitable crash of the long wave cycle - but I will not be as happy as I am right now by a long shot. I will also not be a finger pointer and one of the mob out for the blood of the goat; I will be too busy trying to survive.

Old Yeller

(05/07/2001; 10:28:50 MDT - Msg ID: 53204)

Financial Times performs debunking operation

http://markets.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3H2YODFMC&live=true&tagid=IXL1WGBYICC⊂heading=commodities
It would seem that a rather broad and conclusive verdict has been delivered about this little issue by the Financial Times.

Boy,that's a relief.Too bad they didn't ask Reg Howe about his take on the situation;but then they'd have to write a real,objective piece.

Thanks to cjk at Kitco for the link.

megatron

(05/07/2001; 12:32:43 MDT - Msg ID: 53205)

Galearis

Was informed by my silver dealer here in the NorthWest that no more stock of 2001 MapleLeafs are available until Aug. Said they could sell me 400-2000's. That's all they had. They are a very large dealer.

USAGOLD

(05/07/2001; 15:57:41 MDT - Msg ID: 53206)

Test. . .

Getting reports of problems. . . .

Just testing.

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/07/2001; 18:21:04 MDT - Msg ID: 53207)

Internet access has now been restored after a general service outage this afternoon

So much to talk about, yet so little time!

Are you fully prepared for the coming transition?

got gold?

RAP

(05/07/2001; 18:42:36 MDT - Msg ID: 53208)

UASGOLD down due kalifornia blackout??

http://www.caiso.com/SystemStatus.htmlKalifornia in stage three alert again.

Galearis

(05/07/2001; 18:58:42 MDT - Msg ID: 53209)

@ megatron re silver....

silver maplesHello,

Nice to have USAGOLD up again, yes?

I have no doubt about a growing shortage of silver in North America. It is already worse in Europe where most of their bullion is not in the form that we would find useful. At the same time there will be regional disparities of plenty and scarcity on this side of the water. There is still plenty in the east - Maples, that is - if one doesn't mind the premium added for them (for which reason I do not advocate them). For that matter there is still plenty of wafers (JMs) and bars of small to large sizes (which I do advocate). All this, of course, of anecdotal value only - and in no way indicates the true shortage situation.

Anecdotal too is Mexico allegedly reaching out into the spot market for their minting needs. Canada and the US are both silver producers and apparently their stocks are not what they should be.

Best we watch for the closing of refineries. Then we will ALL know the shortage is well and truly HERE. All refineries are by now a Handy and Harmon waiting to happen.

I am continually mystified that all these news items implying, no, YELLING SHORTAGE are so constantly/perpetually missed by the investing public. Perhaps everyone is too distracted by their losses of "real money" on the stock markets to notice the other money available to them.

Trust me, they will notice when this too is all gone (smile)

Best regards,

G.

auspec

(05/07/2001; 19:50:41 MDT - Msg ID: 53210)

Chump Change {Not}

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/chapman050801pv.htmlFrom Robert Chapman @ GE for those wondering where some of the bigger players are putting money:

"It was a stunning revelation when at the FT Gold Conference, the World Gold Council's Robert Weinberg said, 35 high net worth investors have invested some $800 million in the purchase of approximately 90 tons of gold in the last year."

Comment: Kathud, Kathud, Henri!

Tree in the Forest

(05/07/2001; 20:16:16 MDT - Msg ID: 53211)

Galearis, auspec

Galearis: When you are feeling low and bemoaning the current metals market, think on this: West Point gold is now custodial gold. They are desparate. This can only lead to default. It means that the end time is soon.

auspec: I had a reply to you last Friday and lost it! I shall rewrite it.

Tree in the Forest

(05/07/2001; 20:18:54 MDT - Msg ID: 53212)

COMEX

The Comex is strangely quiet. Silver slowly trickling out. Gold comatose with stock of around 800,000 oz.

Black Blade

(05/07/2001; 20:58:37 MDT - Msg ID: 53213)

Rolling Blackouts Possible - Actually Just Started

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/kpix/20010507/lo/421_1.html
Snippit:

The possibility of rolling blackouts grew stronger mid-morning Monday. By noon, the state stood under a Stage 2 power alert.

Black Blade: Rolling blackouts statewide started about 3 hours ago. ".. and they danced, sang, and played all summer long�.in the dark." Recent rumors were that there would be about 90 days of rolling blackouts in California this ummer. Looks like they got an early start. BTW, heard that 3com may go chapter 11. So far just a rumor.

Black Blade

(05/07/2001; 21:04:53 MDT - Msg ID: 53214)

Power Scramble

http://www.forbes.com/2001/04/23/power.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK - Rolling blackouts and a bankrupt utility in California have touched off much soul-searching throughout the country about how best to run the country's electrical grid and how best to keep electricity prices manageable for consumers and businesses, while allowing utilities to compete in the open market.

Black Blade: Article has several links to other Forbes articles on the energy crisis. Y2K? Ha! This energy crisis may yet be all that Y2K was supposed to be.

Mr Gresham

(05/07/2001; 21:40:50 MDT - Msg ID: 53215)

outage

Days like today, I get that little panic in the pit of my stomach: how will we communicate if the Net goes down? (Does MK have a message number with a recording?)

Horatio

(05/07/2001; 22:00:11 MDT - Msg ID: 53216)

(No Subject)

Anglo to split
Bonanza Silver up 100 %

Black Blade

(05/07/2001; 22:04:26 MDT - Msg ID: 53217)

Calif. Assembly Approves Power Bond Sale

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010507/business_utilities_california_bonds_dc_3.html
Snippit:

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (Reuters) - The California Assembly approved a plan Monday to sell $13.4 billion in bonds to pay for electricity during the state's power crisis, marking what would be the biggest municipal bond issue in U.S. history.

Black Blade: Californian taxe rates are going up. Someone has to service this new debt. Thanks are due to Der Kommissar Davis. While the SS Kalifornia slips beneath the waves, there is time for some to jump into Golden lifeboats amid the inevitable carnage.

Horatio

(05/07/2001; 22:52:43 MDT - Msg ID: 53218)

McVeigh

Janet Reno & Bill Klinton and yes Hillary Created Tim Mc Veigh.I heard rumblings that Hillary was directing Reno behind the scenes.Todays letters by Mc Veigh written to his friend ,Popov was very revealing about the intellagence and sincereity of Mc Veigh and the way his mind works.If the tradgedy of WACO and Ruby Ridge were properly dealt with,those with the mind set of McVeigh could have been avoided and the Gumment knew it.
They have hundreds of psycology and "Profile "people working for them ,thay had to know someone out there was going to retaliate.Yet they chose to hang tough and find ATF and FBI innocent and gave them Bonus to boot.
And again last week it was revealed the FBI kept an innocent man in jail for 30 years.Americas government is doing what all governments do ,protect themselves from the people.A major dose of humility by the government is going to be needed if U.S. is going to survive the up coming Dollar crash and civil disorder.Bush needs to follow the POPE's footsteps and apologise to the Nation for past misdeeds. Just as the POPE makes peace with the Jews and Moslems and Orthodox Christian Church .Government needs to make peace with the People.

megatron

(05/07/2001; 23:15:01 MDT - Msg ID: 53219)

Cali Bonds

I wonder how many idiots in California will buy these bonds, to tax themselves in the future?

Tannehill

(05/08/2001; 00:29:19 MDT - Msg ID: 53220)

net surfing on Silver Chopsticks

Just a little something to think about on a slow Monday evening. Didn't have to work today, tried some net surfing to research my question on Silver chopsticks. Thought I would share the results with the forum. I suspect some intesest in silver chopsticks more likely in Korea, where metal chopsticks are more traditional.

"In ancient China, chopsticks were always made of silver in the royal family. The emperor was very important to the whole country. To prevent the emperor from being poisoned, servants would test the food with silver chopsticks which change color upon contact with certain types of poisons."
link: STUDENT'S NAME: Yung-Ming Ou http://faculty.cinstate.cc.oh.us/~gesellsc/publicspeaking/outline1.html

"The wealthy, however, often had chopsticks made from jade, gold, bronze, brass, agate, coral, ivory, and silver. In fact, during dynastic times it was thought that silver chopsticks would turn black if they came into contact with poisoned food. It is now known that silver had no reaction to arsenic or cyanide, but if rotten eggs, onions, or garlic were used, the hydrogen sulfide they released might cause the chopsticks to change color." link: http://www.calacademy.org/research/anthropology/utensil/chpstck.htm

"Chopsticks are viewed by some as an art form. In 1987, a New York jewelry designer entered a pair of sterling silver chopsticks with an elegant Grecian Ionic Column design in an international design competition. She won the grand prize, and the chopsticks are now on display in the Cooper-Hewitt Nation Museum of Design. Collectors appreciate the folklore and history embodied in the pieces they acquire and see them as family heirlooms rather than mere utensils." link: http://www.jadedragon.com/archives/cooking/chopsticks.html

"Silver utensils have long been indicative of good taste and wealth. It is also believed that silver, if encountered with poison, would discolor. These chopsticks therefore protected those dining with them. Silver chopsticks were especially fashionable in the 1920s and 1930s mainly for their elegance." link: http://www.luxuryfind.com/store/product/13812

And finally think about this---
"Many poems, riddles, and songs mention chopsticks. They are often used as props by acrobats and dances. And today more than a billion Chinese people eat with them." link: http://www.9c9c.com/english_homepage/learn_china/culture/food_drinks/chopsticks/

That's all from TannehillView Yesterday's Discussion.

Netking

(05/08/2001; 00:40:38 MDT - Msg ID: 53221)

Galearis - Silver

Galearis(53209)
Some regional/national disparity in the POS for sure, something for the arb's to take advantage of yes, eg I picked up some more bars over the last week at the converted USD rate of $3.97/Oz...now that will NOT last!

Horatio

(05/08/2001; 00:48:39 MDT - Msg ID: 53222)

Klinton

Klinton goes to China.Who is paying for the trip?
Years ago the KGB paid for Klintons trip to Moscow when he was a student.Why is he going?Whats in it for the Chinese ?Is he thier man in the U.S.?Do they own him?

SteveH

(05/08/2001; 02:06:09 MDT - Msg ID: 53223)

repost

The GATA African Gold Summit
by Adam Hamilton, CPA, MCSE

While the gold price appears to be calm and placid on the surface, powerful forces war behind the scenes in a life or death struggle to shape the gold market of the new millennium. The world gold markets are embroiled in a raging gold information war. The stakes are stupendously high, as the state of the gold market and the price of gold do not exist in a vacuum. Virtually every other important capital market in the world, from the mammoth currency foreign exchange markets to the critical international bond markets, is affected directly or indirectly by the price of gold.

Unlike past economic/financial wars, the current war on gold has not degenerated into actual physical conflict. At the dawn of the Information Age, this latest gold war is not being fought with Kalishnakovs and M-16s, but with fantastic new communication technologies centering around the wondrous Internet. It is, in many aspects, a perfect example of a true information war.

The currently raging gold info-war is a fight for free markets and for the hearts and minds of investors worldwide.

As in most epic conflicts, the combatants of this gold info-war are divided into two camps. The slogan of the first group of soldiers could be expressed in three words, "Gold IS dead!" The battle cry for the second group of warriors could be summarized as "Gold IS being suppressed and a price explosion is imminent."

The "Gold IS dead!" partisans can also be described as anti-gold forces. They believe that timeless financial lessons learned in the past do not apply anymore to our fantastically complex global economy. They believe that gold is a "barbaric relic", with no place in computerized and globally integrated financial markets. The anti-gold forces generally think that humanity has finally "tamed the business cycle" and a paper-based, derivatives controlled global financial system can continue to expand at rapid rates forever.

This camp believes governments and large private entities can control fiat currencies, markets, and wealth-creation indefinitely. The traditional role of gold as the monetary base and ultimate asset is thought to no longer be necessary by the anti-gold forces because systemic risk has been mitigated through the light-speed, 24/7 global financial infrastructure humankind has collectively created. Through the proliferation of derivatives, the anti-gold forces believe risk can be bought and sold until the markets as a whole never experience a boom bust cycle. With the seductive prospect of no future economic/financial earthquakes, the anti-gold forces believe there is no need for the ultimate rock of financial security, fire-tested through millennia of human history_ gold.

Standing in the other corner are the allies of gold.

The pro-gold forces are small in numbers but ferocious in resolve. They believe that financial history DOES matter, and that gold will always have the same critical role as the cornerstone of the financial world that it has maintained virtually uninterrupted for six thousand years. The pro-gold forces are generally students of economics, history, finance, and money. They have vicariously witnessed past financial manias and past attempts to cast gold out of the financial system through the eyes of people who lived through these past historical episodes. The pro-gold partisans recognize that markets move in cycles and trends always change. They also realize that the human heart, the ultimate source of greed and fear that drives booms and busts, also changes not through history.

Many of the pro-gold forces, after years of study, believe the world gold market is currently actively being suppressed by a few governments and elite private banks for selfish reasons. The governments are trying to cover up past policy failures and protect their 100% paper, backed by nothing but faith and trust, fiat currencies and overvalued equity markets. The private banks enthusiastically jumped into the gold manipulation game because borrowing gold at sub 1% lease rates and selling it provided a virtually endless supply of very cheap capital that could be invested in other markets at an enormous profit.

The pro-gold forces believe that after endless research and investigation over the last six or so years the case for a manipulated gold market is virtually unassailable. They note that the laws of economics are ironclad and irrevocable, and can only be cast asunder and bent for a relatively short period of time, as history has taught us over and over.

As the gold info-war rages on, there have been victories and defeats for both sides. Generally, however, the anti-gold forces seem to have the upper hand as gold continues to hover near 20+ year lows. The pro-gold armies, although they control miniscule amounts of capital compared to the governments and banks believed to be suppressing gold, make up for their disparity of resources with world-class research, a mastery of cutting-edge Information Age technologies like the Internet, unquenchable zeal, and undying tenacity.

Like any good local guerilla army fighting a much larger and better-equipped aggressor, the forces for free gold markets carefully choose their engagements.

The next major battle initiated by the pro-gold forces, and potential turning point in the gold info-war, occurs May 10, 2001 in Durban, South Africa. The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee ( GATA _ www.gata.org ) is hosting an African Gold Summit where crucial evidence will be presented to important African governments, gold-mining companies, mining labor interests, and the media about what has transpired in the global gold market in recent years.

With the global physical gold market centered in London and the global paper gold derivatives market revolving around London and New York City, Durban may seem an unlikely battlefield for a potentially decisive confrontation in the gold info-war. It is actually a perfect location, however, as South Africa has critical strategic importance in the global gold trade. South Africa alone supplies around a quarter of the total mined global gold supply each year, with other African nations contributing more gold. At its peak production in 1970, South Africa supplied almost four-fifths of the annual mined gold supply. Gold mining is an extremely important strategic industry to the entire country and region, and the low gold price has exacted a devastating toll on the Africans.

The love of gold in South Africa runs deep, it is a crucial macro supplier of gold, and it has born the brunt of the bitter fruit of the anti-gold campaign. There is probably no better place in the world to hold a pro-gold, pro-free market conference that exposes damning evidence of what has really transpired in the global gold markets since the mid 1990s.

The line-up of warriors GATA is presenting is simply extraordinary, a veritable "Who's Who" of the gold world. Among the presenters include Bill Murphy, Frank Veneroso, Reg Howe, and James Turk. These are the all-stars and movers and shakers in the fight to liberate the world gold markets! It will be an incredible summit.

Bill Murphy is a founder and the Chairman of GATA. He has fought long and hard to illuminate gold market dynamics and to unshackle the gold market to trade free of government molestation. He has traveled to the US Congress to present the dangers of unprecedented growth in gold derivatives. He has spoken with gold producers, gold investors, and gold consumers all over the world. He is also the proprietor of the excellent award-winning contrarian website LeMetropole Cafe ( www.lemetropolecafe.com ) .

With his high profile "four-star general" position in the pro-gold forces, Mr. Murphy has extensive global contacts and one of the best gold intelligence gathering networks on the planet. He is one of the most "plugged-in" individuals in the world gold market.

Murphy has been commenting lately to his clients on the unnatural tightness in the physical gold market. He points out that sky-high gold lease rates in recent months indicate that physical gold available for lease is becoming harder and harder to come by. He has also been carefully monitoring the deteriorating situation in the gold derivates market centered around the NY COMEX. Physical gold inventories to settle futures contracts that demand delivery have plummeted from around 2.0m ounces at the beginning of the year to around 0.8m in early May. Although one wouldn't know it from the perpetually anti-gold propaganda spewed out by the conventional financial media, it appears there are serious structural problems in the global gold trade percolating menacingly right below the surface.

Murphy will no doubt present much more information in Durban about the current state of the world gold markets. It will be a real eye-opener for conference attendees who rely on the mainstream media which is hopelessly disseminating disinformation on gold. As Murphy also probably has many private sources that provide highly valuable gold market intelligence on specific gold market happenings, there is also the possibility that he has an ace or two up his sleeve to throw down for the African governments and gold producers.

Frank Veneroso is also presenting in Durban. Mr. Veneroso has been studying the global financial markets for decades and his reputation for gold market analysis is unparalleled. He has consulted for governments and mega-financial entities around the world, and his services are always in demand. He has also presented data to the US Congress on the danger inherent in explosive and massive gold derivatives growth. He runs a renowned global consultancy, Veneroso Associates. Veneroso has been studying gold supply and demand dynamics for decades.

As the GATA Gold Summit is by invitation only for elite African gold players, we are fortunate that Mr. Veneroso was kind enough to post a preview of his presentation on the Web. It is located at www.gata.org/veneroso_presentation.html and is highly recommended reading. Veneroso's findings in this preview are simply amazing and could alone rock the gold world to its very core.

As everyone from a professor of economics to a child setting up a corner lemonade stand knows, prices in free markets are determined by supply and demand. If supply EXCEEDS demand, prices fall to increase demand and lower supply until a market clearing equilibrium point is reached, where supply exactly meets demand. If demand EXCEEDS supply, however, just the opposite happens in free markets. Prices rise to retard demand and entice additional production online until supply equals demand at a new market clearing equilibrium price. These simple thoughts are literally THE foundation for free markets and economics. Although the immutable laws of supply and demand have been briefly bent historically, no force has ever been able to repeal these laws on a macro scale for a prolonged period of time.

Veneroso begins his web presentation preview by outlining consensus estimates of global gold supply and demand, which point to global annual gold demand exceeding global annual mined gold supply by 1500 tonnes, or 60%, each year. He moves on to present his own firm's conservative estimates, which put the annual deficit at much more dangerous levels, over 2200 tonnes, around 90%. The vast majority of the annual gold shortfall is made up by sales and loans of gold from Western central banks. If those sales are interrupted for any reason, or if the gold market finds out the banks are running out of gold to dump, the gold price would roar heavenwards immediately as artificial marginal supply from central banks shrivels up.

Veneroso also examines the total gold loan ( gold short ) position, which he and his people believe is 100% to 200% greater than the 5,000 tonne conventional consensus estimate. He goes on to outline reasons why the official data on gold provided by certain London-based organizations is likely to be incorrect. At the GATA African Gold Summit he will outline these reasons in detail as well as present the sources and basis of the stunning Veneroso Associates analysis of the global gold market.

At the end of his preview slides, Veneroso notes that there are approximately only six years of central bank gold stocks remaining. This number is amazing as the anti-gold forces have continually led the markets to believe that there are decades and decades of gold reserves left that central banks will sell into the market.

Overall, the impression Veneroso's preview leaves is that the Veneroso Associates' carefully researched and documented analysis on the economic realities of the gold market is going to be explosive. The African attendees will realize that the anti-gold campaign has been weighed in the balances of free markets and found wanting. If the gold short position is indeed this large and the central banks are burning through their gold hordes this fast, the potential implications of Veneroso's research are staggering. A man who needs no introduction in the gold world, Reg Howe, will also present in Durban on May 10. Mr. Howe, of course, is the gentleman who launched the incredible legal action against the Bank for International Settlements, Alan Greenspan, and other elite anti-gold players on December 7, 2000. Mr. Howe is the proprietor of Golden Sextant, an internationally renowned website located at www.goldensextant.com which discusses money, politics, economics, and gold. He is a brilliant attorney who has been studying and analyzing the gold market for decades. Since he filed his complaint, he has probably been more responsible for keeping the anti-gold forces awake at night dripping in cold sweat and fear than any other individual on the planet.

The Howe v. BIS et al case is tremendously important. We wrote an earlier essay explaining it entitled "Let Slip the Dogs of War". Basically, the complaint contends the defendants in their operations in the gold market have knowingly violated pillars of US law including the United States Constitution, the Sherman Anti-Trust Act, and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Howe also contends that some defendants committed common-law fraud. Howe's original case, as well as his response to the expected Motions to Dismiss by the defendants, is available for free quick and easy download in Adobe PDF format at www.zealllc.com/howepla.htm . Both documents are extraordinary and absolutely essential reading for understanding the current gold info-war.

In his recently filed response, Howe carefully laid out his arguments and the legal foundations on which his claims rest. One of the most spectacular parts of the document, however, is the revelation of Howe's discovery in official United States Federal Reserve meeting minutes that the secretive slush fund of the US Treasury, the Exchange Stabilization Fund, is apparently actively intervening in the gold market.

The Exchange Stabilization Fund, created in 1934 and funded with the filthy proceeds of Socialist President Franklin Roosevelt's robbery of private gold from the American populace, is not accountable to the United States Congress. The US Secretary of the Treasury has direct control over the ESF and he reports exclusively to the President of the United States. The ESF has been used for stealthy and covert interventions in various world markets, usually currencies FOREX, for many decades.

In early 1995, major American money-center banks were facing large losses on loans they made to Mexico. The Clinton administration made the decision it wanted to bail the elite banks out, effectively back-stopping their silly bets. Clinton's market manipulating crew ran up against a brick wall when they tried to talk the US Congress into using taxpayer money to bail out the fat cat bankers who had made risky loans in Mexico, however. Congress rightfully refused, realizing that the only way capitalism can work is if traders, both big and small, fully bear all the risk of their positions themselves. Without risk, there is no capitalism. Back-stopping the trades of big US banks only encourages them to act more aggressively in the future and introduces a MONUMENTAL moral hazard problem.

With Congress saying "NO WAY!", Clinton's cronies explored their options to make an end-run around the will of the US people as expressed by our elected representatives in Congress. They came up with the idea of using the ESF to bail out their banker friends since it was not accountable to Congress and operated outside of normal oversight authority.

In the Federal Reserve meeting minutes from January 31, 1995, there is a discussion exploring the legality of this option. Federal Reserve Board Governor Lawrence Lindsey is uncomfortable with circumventing Congressional will with the ESF. In order to allay his fears, the Fed's General Counsel J. Virgil Mattingly replied and told him about the broad authority of the ESF statute. As an example of this authority, Mattingly mentioned the ESF "gold swaps", and apparently everyone in the room understood the example as no one asked questions.

This is an inflammatory revelation because the US Treasury has officially DENIED, to everyone from US Senators to American citizens to the US federal court system, that the ESF has been involved in gold or gold derivatives since 1978. Every communication from the US Treasury on the subject explicitly and forcefully states the ESF is NOT involved in the gold market. Many in the pro-gold community, however, believe the ESF has been used to actively sell gold into the market to stamp out fledgling gold rallies in the last six years. The disclosure of gold involvement by the ESF in a 1995 Federal Reserve meeting is very important and has tremendous implications.

Reg Howe will likely discuss the new evidence of US government involvement in gold price suppression as well as legal issues surrounding his landmark complaint against the gold shorts in his presentation in Durban. It is sure to be full of startling and disturbing revelations for the African gold community.

James Turk will also be presenting at the GATA African Gold Summit. Mr. Turk is a world-renowned financial market expert and has also consulted for governments and private clients around the world. He publishes the famous Freemarket Gold & Money Report ( www.fgmr.com ) , a prestigious international financial newsletter, for his clients. Turk has lived and worked around the world and has studied the gold markets in far corners of the globe firsthand. He is also a member of Howe's Discovery Committee to review documentation obtained from the Howe v. BIS et al defendants in the discovery stage of the case.

Turk has recently written some amazing must-read essays on gold detailing his original research and also spring-boarding off other analysts' findings to arrive at startling new conclusions. He wrote "The Smoking Gun" on December 11, an outstanding analysis detailing US ESF involvement in the gold market by analyzing discrepancies in official US Treasury and US Federal Reserve reports on US gold holdings. Just recently, in late April, Turk published another essay that has far-reaching and enormous implications.

In "Behind Closed Doors", Turk further analyzes the revelation that Reg Howe discovered in the Federal Reserve official meeting minutes on ESF involvement in the gold market. Turk analyzes that development, explains what the development means, but also integrates some other analytical work to arrive at a stunning conclusion.

Michael Bolser, another outstanding gold market analyst on Reg Howe's Discovery Committee with Turk, had been looking through official US Treasury records on United States gold inventory levels. Bolser noticed that in September 2000 one of the primary US physical gold reserve storage points, the US Mint in West Point, New York, had mysteriously switched the status of 1700 tonnes of gold ( over 20% of the entire US gold reserves ) from "Gold Bullion Reserve" to "Custodial Gold Bullion". Now, as everyone knows, to be a "custodian" over something means that you do not own it, but are maintaining it for its true owner. Even more ominous, there was no change in the "Gold Bullion Reserve" status at all the other US mints. Something odd was obviously up. Bolser wrote the US Treasury to seek clarification on the cryptic status change of 1700 tonnes of gold, but received no reply.

Turk, in "Behind Closed Doors", builds on Bolser's research and adds his own explorations of Federal Reserve records to come to the incredible conclusion that the ESF has covertly encumbered over 20% of the American citizens' public gold bullion. This is far beyond scandalous as any changes in US gold reserves require US Congressional approval, which has definitely not been granted.

Turk drilled down even further and makes the case that a gold swap of 1700 tonnes may have been executed with the German central bank, the Bundesbank. This would enable the US ESF to stealthily dump physical gold into the crucial European physical gold market directly from Germany without transporting the gold physically from the US, which would cause all sorts of alarm bells to ring in political, economic, geopolitical, and financial circles. Turk makes the case that the Bundesbank now owns 1700 tonnes of formerly US gold on US soil and that the Bundesbank's gold vaults themselves are at least half empty and may even be completely gutted. The potential fallout from this allegation, if proven true, will be mind-boggling in both America and Germany.

Like Murphy, Turk has an extensive network of professional gold contacts around the world and his presentation at Durban is sure to be amazing.

We have not even mentioned all the speakers at the GATA African Gold Summit in this brief synopsis! It will be an extraordinary event in modern gold history.

This critical battle in the gold info-war that will be fought on the African front in Durban on May 10, 2001 could prove to be a decisive turning point in the war. African governments and African gold producers will learn firsthand what the pro-gold forces have uncovered and exactly how the anti-gold forces have destroyed the gold-mining industry and the economies of the African nations that depend on their abundant blessings of natural resource wealth. Formerly highly secretive events of the gold world will be laid naked for the Africans to see what has transpired.

Unlike the average private contrarian gold investor, these African countries, mining companies, and labor interests, along with the media, ARE in a position where they can make an immediate, tangible difference and turn the tides in the raging gold info-war.

The African governments present at the conference can immediately begin ending the great anti-gold game by publicly and forcefully questioning the US and British governments about their trading activities in the gold market. Tough questions need to be asked. The US Congress, for instance, has been very supportive of the post-apartheid

SteveH

(05/08/2001; 02:09:19 MDT - Msg ID: 53224)

Question

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au0365nyb.gifWhat do chartists or technicians call the last inch of gold chart above, you know, where it forms a bowl? This chart formation looks encouraging, no??

Netking

(05/08/2001; 04:08:07 MDT - Msg ID: 53225)

SteveH

SteveH (53224)
It looks positive for sure Steve, I am more impressed though by the double bottom....from which we are now gaining altitude. Normally from DB's you can expect a move of 200% of the previous range of reference, I'm sure that wouldn't disturb too many in these here woods!

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/08/2001; 06:17:00 MDT - Msg ID: 53226)

Cry me a river, will ya?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010507/n07506320.htmlDuring this current comment period, the Bond Market Association has now officially voiced its displeasure with the new capital accords proposed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision.

While the proposed new formulas call for banks to set aside greater amounts of capital for loans that are riskier, the Association stomps its feet with the objection that such prudence might lead to reductions in liquidity in the debt market.

Carl H

(05/08/2001; 07:42:26 MDT - Msg ID: 53227)

Clinton still involved in manipulation?

I have noted over the past few weeks that Clinton has made a trip to South Africa and now is making one to China.

Keep in mind that South Africa produces about 25% of the world's annual gold production. If the South African government were to take a stand against the Cabal, they could probably break the Cabal.

Also keep in mind that China as been dishoarding large amounts of silver. A process that the silver shorts hope continues.

Either he and the Bush administration are in Kahoots, or he wants to keep the game going long enough to have the whole mess be blamed on Bush. That would open the door for President Hillary in 2004. (A scary thought for sure!) I wonder what he had to promise the South Africans and the Chinese in 2004 to get their cooperation?

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/08/2001; 08:15:01 MDT - Msg ID: 53228)

These recent comments by ECB chief economist Otmar Issing may be enlightening to you

http://www.usagold.com/goldenchalkboard/gc_otmarissing.htmlHe begins, "The appropriate conduct of monetary policy in an imperfectly known world is by definition a standing challenge for any central bank at any time. It is always difficult to draw a correct picture of the world from sometimes ambiguous and contradicting raw data. And it is hard to devise an appropriate response to new developments that is both free of prejudice, open to new developments, and at the same time coherently and systematically designed not to compromise the fundamental principles that need to guide the central bank's policy in the medium run."

Hey FOA, in his latter remark we see parallels with your exceptionally crafted bonsai analogy at the Gold Trail.

Specifically relevant to those of us pondering the fate of the dollar, Mr. Issing offers a subtle warning to us while speaking of some of the positives of the euro region. He says, "In contrast to other economic areas, there are also no fundamental imbalances that have been built up over recent years and that may require a correction."

As we continue to say, gold offers a FIRM platform of wealth during "a correction". Get you some.

Buena Fe

(05/08/2001; 08:20:18 MDT - Msg ID: 53229)

Spinmiester's smokescreen getting thinner and less effective!

What do you (AG)do when - your prodigy "productivity gains" gets whacked......and employments costs rocket away.....and long bonds lack bids.......and hightech darlings have headaches (Dell)......and the Dow feels overbought along with the $......etc. etc.?

You create smoke and dust to distract.......new upgrade on Cisco etc. etc.

Well.......the smoke is getting thinner and thinner......and is blowing away quicker and quicker....soon all will see and understand that "THE KING HAS NO CLOTHES ON!" Oh how embarrassing........bye bye Dow $ etc etc......hello gold.

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/08/2001; 08:40:30 MDT - Msg ID: 53230)

Poor man's gold

The following conversation may or may not have been overheard between two people in line withing the hallway outside the bustling office of Centennial Precious Metals...

Poor Man: "I have been putting all of my money in silver. I can't afford to buy gold."

Wise Man: "I find that to be an interesting thing you say, for I am myself a poor man. Yet, unlike you, I find that I cannot afford to buy silver because I cannot afford NOT to buy gold!"

(Just then, Michael Kosares appears at the doorway.)

MK: "Come on in, gentlemen, I'm sure we can help you both."

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/08/2001; 09:01:23 MDT - Msg ID: 53231)

The pony express just now dropped off the ECB balance sheet, still hot off the press

A quick review of the Eurosystem's weekly consolidated financial statement for the week ended May 4th reveals that the vast stake in gold assets remains unchanged, valued on the books at 118.464 billion euros.

In contrast, the net position in foreign currency assets has continued its general decline this week, evacuating another 600 million to leave a book value of 265.8 billion euros.

USAGOLD

(05/08/2001; 09:39:40 MDT - Msg ID: 53232)

Today's Commentary in Full: Standard & Poor's Says "Accumulate"

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html Note: Thought I'd post today's report in full as it seems particularly relevant. Enjoy. Those new to USAGOLD should go to the Request Info link at top of page for the information packet reference below.

Also: The British coins are moving quickly. If you have an interest, we advise quick action due to the limited supply. I might add that in the many years we have offered pre-1933 coins we have never before been able to offer these items in a group like this. The BU Veiled Victorians are particularly desirable in that I can't remember before having 150 of them to sell in this state of preservation. Most of you know how quickly these offerings can move off the shelf. I don't expect the BU's to last much longer. We now have about 75 left -- if that. 800-869-5115, if you would like to order by phone. If not, the link above will take to our easy-to-use on-line store.

"Knowing as much as I do about the way central banks all over the
world are printing money like confetti, again to help people pay for
the rising price of oil, I now expect the biggest and longest gold
boom in a century." Adrian van Eck/ Money Forecast Letter

5/8/01 (www.usagold.com). . . . Gold drifted
lower in early New York trade after a quiet night
overseas. Comex floor traders report that gold is showing
some signs of life despite the upcoming Bank of England
auction on May 16. "We have nothing but dealer buying
here,'' a COMEX floor broker told Reuters. "With some
fund sell stops at the open adding to the negative feeling,
and I guess with the euro being weaker, we're seeing a
little bit of spec selling,'' he said. ``But it looks like some
physical buying holding the market from falling.''
Reuters goes on to point out that the physical market will
be well-supported through the Indian wedding season
and that "One-month lease rates were steady above 2
percent, with fears of more U.S. interest rate reductions
keeping the forward sales premium narrow, an anathema
to bears. 'With the contangos and interest rates as low as
they are, it takes away a lot of incentive for producer
hedging and even for speculative shorting,' said a bullion
dealer. 'So I guess the bias for the longer term is
probably to the upside, if it stays like this.'''

Those of you who like your buy signals wrapped in a
nice neat package might take note of a recent assessment
of the gold situation by Standard & Poor's. The rating
agency has upgraded gold stocks (and by proxy the hard
metal itself) from "hold" to "accumulate." It cites rising
lease rates combined with lower short term (dollar)
interest rate as decreasing hedging profitability and
cutting the likelihood of gold breaking the August, 1999
low. S&P goes on to say that the fundamentals are
positive on reduced mine output, lacklustre financial
market returns and a continued supply/demand deficit.
Gold is selling at close to $100 below replacement costs
and that will force mine closings.

We would add to this bullish thumbnail sketch the
observations by Standard Bank of London that over the
next five to six years gold production could decline by as
much as 35%. That coupled with the tightened supplies
for both leasing and selling gold on the part of the
world's largest central banks pretty puts a lid on any
increase in the supply. Simultaneously, the World Gold
Council projects demand increases over the same period
of 25% or more.

As we have said repeatedly here, do not wait for these
circumstances to become headline news in your morning
newspapers before you buy. The time to accumulate gold
is while things are quiet. Call us for more information
and some direction as to how might effectively hedge
your investment portfolio.

800-869-5115 (US) ***1-800-294-9462 (Can) ****
0011-800-2761-2761 (Aus) **** 00-800-2760-2760
(EU) TOLL FREE

As for Marie Ballard on gold orders of 10 ounces or less.

On gold orders over 10 ounces ask for George Cooper or
Michael Kosares.

For a starter information packet which includes our
monthly newsletter generally considered one of the best,
if not the best, in the industry, please click here. Yes! We
send out packets to international prospective clientele.

Gold Trail Update

(05/08/2001; 09:59:55 MDT - Msg ID: 53233)

The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated

The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.

JMB

(05/08/2001; 10:08:52 MDT - Msg ID: 53234)

A little pop in the XAU/HUI at the moment.

Any MDG fans out there with a thought regarding the recent correction?

Mr Gresham

(05/08/2001; 10:13:08 MDT - Msg ID: 53235)

"Gold is Dead"

Spotting that phrase in the Adam Hamilton re-post; now all we need to see is the Time Magazine cover announcing it. (Not very likely, but we can hope, can't we?)

(Reminiscent of the similarly-spelled "G-d is Dead" Time cover in, what was it -- 1968? which marked the resurgence of US religious enthusiasm, and paralleling the "Death of Equities" Business Week cover in 1979(?) which preceded the SM turnaround.)

TheStranger

(05/08/2001; 11:11:31 MDT - Msg ID: 53236)

An Important Signpost on Reinflation Road?

Opponents of the reinflation thesis have maintained that rising wages were not a threat to prices as long as they were offset by "new economy" productivity gains. Perhaps this morning's report, indicating the first decline in U.S. productivity in 6 years (-.1%), will finally silence that argument. Manager's, who have eagerly taken credit for productivity improvements, will now discover just how many of those gains were due to the labor-stretching influences of an overheated economy. Now, as employees run out of things to do, progress in this area will be much harder to come by.

Meanwhile, wages are rising at a 5% clip. Add this to dramatically higher energy prices, and you wonder how much longer Wall Street can go on denying the obvious. One thing is for sure: There is a sudden sea-change approaching in how people perceive the threat of inflation, and, when that change occurs, the consequences to investors ought to be thunderous.

Buena Fe

(05/08/2001; 11:22:00 MDT - Msg ID: 53237)

Trail Guide & Freedom

Hear Hear.... Mr. Speaker......Our esteemed colleague has plainly dissertained (?) (along with the help of his associates) the most basic/fundamental economic rights of all men under God (thats all of us by the way)......freedom to choose your savings/wealth/trade instruments! Now...Mr. Speaker will you please inform Mr.AG that his resistance is useless........and lets not have that pity-party either.......just get on with the inevitable....."FREEGOLD!"

I'm a little PMS'd today (Pre-Momentum-Syndrome), if you haven't noticed.

Netking

(05/08/2001; 12:58:22 MDT - Msg ID: 53238)

Carl H - Ag

Carl H (53227)
You write;"...Also keep in mind that China as been dishoarding large amounts of silver. A process that the silver shorts hope continues..."

Carl, can you give us some proof of this, or any numbers to back this up. If it was happening where is it going & how are they getting it there if it was?
regards Netking

Old Yeller

(05/08/2001; 13:26:53 MDT - Msg ID: 53239)

Words of wisdom from the Munkey

http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/WireFeedRedirect?cf=GlobeInvestor/config_ad&vg=BigAdVariableGenerator&date=20010508&archive=roc&slug=roc2001-05-08T191026Z_01_N08594924_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-MINERALS-BARRICK-COL
Wow,talk about spin.This guy appears to have mastered the Clintonian hyperbolic decepto-speak.

Netking

(05/08/2001; 13:29:10 MDT - Msg ID: 53240)

EP3 - Part XVIII

China Won't Let US Plane Leave Island

"Chinese officials said Tuesday they won't permit the United States to remove its surveillance plane from an airbase on Hainan Island, noting that Beijing had told Washington that several times in the past."

- Mmmm, Eureka! now I know maybe too much Silver in the back for take off huh?

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/08/2001; 13:43:21 MDT - Msg ID: 53241)

Shaking with laughter

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010508/n08594924.htmlHEADLINE: Munk comes to defense of Barrick's gold hedging

TORONTO, May 8 (Reuters) - Barrick Gold Corp.'s (Toronto:ABX.TO - news) chairman came to the defense of his company's controversial hedging program on Tuesday arguing it helps, not hurts, the price of gold. "Hedging, the way Barrick does it, not only does no harm to a gold price over any period of time, but it actually assists in the evolution of a healthy gold price," he told shareholders at the company's annual meeting.
+
Munk argues that in a period of depressed gold prices, unhedged companies are still forced to release gold into the market to make money, continually knocking down the price of gold.
+
"The fact that you never have to offer gold on the down tick, but only can move on the uptick, is a significant assistance to gold price evolution. Our hedging programs and the way we do it in fact assist the gold price evolution."
--------------------

He was later heard to say, "The forest, dammit, I can't see the forest! Would somebody please get these trees outta the way, they're blocking my view!"

Keep selling that paper into the upticks, partner, 'cause my friends and I here in The Tower will keep taking the metal provided cheaply until, by default, this creature of your "gold price evolution" loses its legs.

Chrusos

(05/08/2001; 14:54:38 MDT - Msg ID: 53242)

World Gold Council Derivatives Study

http://www.gold.org/Gra/Other/GoldDeriv2full.pdfBoy have just finished reading the above by 3 eminent professors with a steering committee of more who are all experienced in the derivatives commodities market.

A very clear and well-expressed overview using the best academic gift for making difficult things simple.

Its more scary than anything I have read as they predicate everything on business between gentlemen in an absolutely secure and comfortable market managed by the world central banks and the largest commercial global banks. Everybody wins in well thought out derivative strategies that manage the endless liquidity of the gold market. What could be safer than that??

The whole edifice is based on gold loans with duration of 3 months. There is very little reference to physical except the foolish benighted heathen who wear it around their necks as they, poor fellows, do not have access to stable currencies that will go on forever.

This exposed the systemic risk to me better than anything I have read and also demystified in simple terms a lot that I had not fully understood - delta hedging etc. Confession - I used to dabble in few options now I believe FOA's description of total faliure of the paper market is the only outcome at even the slightest strain

Let's go and join the financial engineers, er I mean gold miners, for a relaxed drink at the club

Shalom
Chrusos

AEL

(05/08/2001; 15:32:45 MDT - Msg ID: 53243)

Netking

Netking (5/8/01; 00:40:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 53221)"Some regional/national disparity in the POS for sure, something for the arb's to take advantage of yes, eg I picked up some
more bars over the last week at the converted USD rate of $3.97/Oz...now that will NOT last!"

...........whew! where do you live?

Econoclast

(05/08/2001; 15:38:46 MDT - Msg ID: 53244)

So much knowledge and effort to digest!

Trail Guide--
Like an eager student I await your comments.
Chrusos--
Thanks for the link. It is a great and exciting read so far. The chart that shows the real price of gold in 1900 dollars is very interesting to me (I'm on pg 17 or so). Sends my mind in all kinds of directions.

Carl H

(05/08/2001; 15:50:16 MDT - Msg ID: 53245)

Netking: Re: Chinese Dishoarding of Silver

See the GFMS Silver Survey 2000. They have a discussion of it. I have seen numbers in the 50-60MOz/year range somewhere, I think it was in the Silver Survey.

JMB

(05/08/2001; 18:54:12 MDT - Msg ID: 53246)

click on: Pictures of a Stock Market Mania

http://www.cross-currents.netThis is a very good article, imo.

Canuck

(05/08/2001; 19:05:02 MDT - Msg ID: 53247)

@ Randy

From yours earlier:

"A quick review of the Eurosystem's weekly consolidated financial statement for the week ended May 4th reveals that the vast stake in gold assets remains unchanged, valued on the books at 118.464 billion euros.

In contrast, the net position in foreign currency assets has continued its general decline this week, evacuating another 600 million to leave a book value of 265.8 billion euros."

Two quick questions if you have time.

Have the gold assets remained unchanged because they value the gold as same and/or quantity of gold has not changed?

Is the gold reserve now 31% of reserve? (118/118+265) I thought gold reserve was 15%?

Canuck.

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/08/2001; 19:11:15 MDT - Msg ID: 53248)

This past Gilded Opinion piece by John Hathaway is relevant to recent discussion

http://www.usagold.com/HathawayPyramid.htmlExcerpt:

"The gold derivatives pyramid is a vigorous free market creature. It cannot be put down with a simple declaration that the paper is no longer redeemable in gold, as governments did with currency. It is a short selling scheme that has become a trap from which few short sellers will escape. Paper claims in the form of derivatives far exceed the underlying physical metal on which they are based. The trust, which balances this new pyramid, is based on false assumptions and lack of information. Paper gold claims have proliferated at a pace rivaling any government printing press. A surfeit of paper gold has driven down the price of the physical on which it is based....Expect the resolution to be swift, furious, and uncomfortable for those caught short."

(click link for more)

USAGOLD

(05/08/2001; 20:06:45 MDT - Msg ID: 53249)

FYI

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Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/08/2001; 20:07:49 MDT - Msg ID: 53250)

Canuck and the ECB

I've noticed that this issue has been the source of considerable confusion in the past. I think the simple explanation is that people are not making the necessary distinction between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the EuroSYSTEM (the financial consolidation of the 12 euro-member national central banks along with the ECB).

When nations commit to joining the currency union, they contribute share capital to the ECB in proportion to the relative size of the national economies within the currency union. This also determines the voting weight of the members in the Governing Council of the ECB. The 15% that is commonly referred to relates directly to this share capital which nations subscribe to the ECB. Simply put, 15% of the original capital provided must be in the form of gold.

In other words, the capital of the ECB individually amounts to 767 tonnes. This is from the original 747 tonnes provided by the original 11 members (representing 15% of the approximately 50 billion euro reserve capital pledged to the ECB) plus the 20 tonnes provided this past January by Greece (representing 15% of the total share capital required of that nation).

Barring any portfolio adjustments by the ECB, there is no certainty that the gold proportion of its reserve assets will stay at 15%. Without any change to the weight of gold sitting in the vault, the proportions may change from the orignal values based on quarterly mark-to-market revaluations of the gold and the foreign paper held. For example, if the paper falls in value, the gold proportion would rise above 15% without any addition to the quantity of metal held. Beginning last summer, the ECB announced that it would no longer retain as reserves the interest earnings on its proportion of foreign paper assets.

And on that note, as we see from the weekly consolidated reports, the Eurosystem as a whole has actually been dishording its principle holdings of foreign paper assets at a rate of nearly 500 million euros per week. By contrast, under the terms of the Washington Agreement, these same Eurosystem nations are "dishoarding" gold at a meager average rate of 15 million euros per week over the 5 year term. (Specifically, 390 tonnes from the Dutch and Austrians).

The 30% figure is simply the proportion we find when we look at the current CONSOLIDATED reserves of the 12-nation member Eurosystem. As the numbers above would lead you to believe, the proportion of reserves in the form of gold is growing.

Hopefully, that largely answers your question, "Have the gold assets remained unchanged because they value the gold as same and/or quantity of gold has not changed?"

But to cover all the bases, we know that there remains under the WA terms latitude for the signatories to continue a degree of pre-existing leasing operations. And as such, the consolidated financial statement reflects "Gold and Gold Receivables". So it is fair to say that the the quantity of clear title gold may indeed vary from week to week within the Eurosystem, though without being reflected as a change in value to the asset. And while lawful, I find the practice somewhat distasteful because a paper claim simply should not be held at a value on par with the quantity of metal for which it is a claim. There should be some degree of discounting due to the counterparty risk. But there you have it.

Galearis

(05/08/2001; 20:19:06 MDT - Msg ID: 53251)

@ Tree in the Forest

silver scarcityWell, I had to go to Toronto today and am once more reminded of how wonderful it is not to live there (smile).
The 401, which is a deadly place at the best of times is unspeakable when raining. Whewwww.

Believe me, driving to Toronto and in it gets me down more than the spot market. (smile)

Wonderful news! One can still get sterling spoons in collectible shops for $5CAN. I bought 4 teaspoons out side of the city today.(Big Chershire cat grin).

But seriously, there is a great shortage of AFFORDABLE scrap and junk silver now. However, the availability of collectible sterling ware is fine - it just keeps rising in price - even though I have NEVER found a collectibles dealer in ware who follows the spot market. This is inflation driven IMO. However, according to dealers there is not very much coming out of private homes to these outlets (again the average person does not follow the spot market)which in turn implies that the public is either holding or they do not have much. Whatever the reason those collectibles dealers who want to buy are not seeing it offered.

That says SHORTAGE.
And it will likely stay that way until metal value goes through a fifteen fold increase to take it beyond retail buy cost. This will eventually bring out the sterling scrap, but that will take time.

This summer when I am cruising through Cobalt I'll drop into the Agnico refinery located there. Perhaps I can get some statement from them as to their supplies. And this brings to mind a statement from a local I met there last summer who said that their main supply now (then) was reprocessing exposed film. But that could have been due to a contractual thingy.

G.

Tree in the Forest

(05/08/2001; 20:36:01 MDT - Msg ID: 53252)

Randy

Thank you for that excellent Hathaway link. Quite prescient actually, in view of the fact that he wrote it in August 1999 before the WA. Here's what he had to say about Ashanti:

"The recent market value of Ashanti's hedge book was $290mm,
using conservative assumptions. What is interesting is that this major corporate asset would be worth nothing if gold traded at $325. At $350, the company would begin to face margin calls. These numbers assume the company takes no action in a rising market.
Management would of course defend the hedge book by buying calls with a higher strike price, close out profitable positions, and other assorted maneuvers. The company is quick to point out that their hedge book would not withstand a spike in the gold price very well. The value of the book could not be realized in a compressed time frame. If the gold price did rally sharply, it is assumed it would settle back after the spike to allow the company to realize
the hedge book profits. In theory, a run in the gold price could take place, but management sees nothing imminent. The Ashanti hedge book is a bet that the gold market will remain quiescent and trouble free. They are merely "renting" their gold in the ground to enhance realizations. Ashantis sanguine view is not unusual. Few in the industry are prepared for a spike in the gold price, especially one which does not retrace. We expect this to happen, not only because it would inconvenience so many, but because markets that are far out of balance change in a volcanic, not an evolutionary, manner."

Tree in the Forest

(05/08/2001; 20:50:19 MDT - Msg ID: 53253)

Galearis

It's great to be able to combine investing in PMs with a hobby. I think working-kirk said he collects PM instruments. I always wanted a silver flute. They do have the best sound.
I was in Toronto many years ago and stayed at Inn on the Park. There's a great five star restaurant there. Maybe someday I will get back. I enjoyed my stay in Toronto! Silver's getting tight no doubt; it's day of reckoning is coming.

Gold Trail Update

(05/08/2001; 20:54:49 MDT - Msg ID: 53254)

The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated

The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.

megatron

(05/08/2001; 21:11:27 MDT - Msg ID: 53255)

Silver notes

Talked to a guy at Engelhard today. Asked to purchase 10oz. bars and got a big hrmmph and a laugh. Was told in no uncertain terms there was none of those being made anymore and could only supply me with 100.oz units. Did not in any way sound like there was lots just laying around. Will call JohnsonMathey tommorow and post reply.

Black Blade

(05/08/2001; 21:30:56 MDT - Msg ID: 53256)

Gas Prices Jump to New High

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20010508/us/gas_prices_5.html
Snippit:

CHICAGO (AP) - Summer vacations are just around the corner, and once again soaring gasoline prices are driving some motorists around the bend. U.S. pump prices have hit record highs, topping the $2-a-gallon mark again in Chicago and California and spurring talk of a possible $3 a gallon sometime after the peak driving season begins on Memorial Day.

Black Blade: Supplies may not completely dry up as consumers will be forced to conserve as they continue to lose their jobs and are unable to afford the gas to drive their autos. It won't matter as businesses will be closed due to rolling blackouts and it becomes increasingly difficult to avoid the rolling riots as they risk repeating the gauntlet that was experienced by Reginald Denny the trucker who was beaten into a vegetable on national television by a herd of wild animals in South Central LA. Besides there won't be anywhere to go. Y2K? No, Y2001 in California today. Today there was yet another set of rolling blackouts in California. More expected tomorrow.

Black Blade

(05/08/2001; 21:38:25 MDT - Msg ID: 53257)

Calif. Hit by Blackouts Again

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010508/business_utilities_california_dc_33.html
Snippit:

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - California suffered its second consecutive day of statewide blackouts on Tuesday as consumers turned up their power-hungry air conditioners amid scorching temperatures, ignoring pleas for conservation, while officials warned of more of the same on Wednesday.

Black Blade: Yep. You just got to know that these shock-waves will ripple through the fabric of the US economy. It grows more intense each passing day. The cracks are showing as with the current wave of California energy crisis blackouts. Time to surf the shock-waves aboard a golden lifeboat while the Grasshoppers continue to ignore the obvious. "�and they danced, sang, and played all summer�"

Black Blade

(05/08/2001; 21:49:46 MDT - Msg ID: 53258)

Task Force To Propose Legislation

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20010508/pl/bush_energy_plan_3.html
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (AP) - President Bush (news - web sites)'s energy task force plans to propose legislation allowing the seizure of private property to accelerate the construction of electrical power lines, three administration officials said Tuesday. The recommendation is contained in the final draft of a broad energy blueprint to be unveiled by President Bush next week, the officials said. The ``eminent domain'' authority allows the government to appropriate private property for public use; the property owners are usually compensated.

Black Blade: George Dubya is proving to be quite the Eunuch isn't he. He has back-peddled on the Clinton executive orders of the "last days," by letting them take effect. He is proving to be something of a Scumbag. But then all politicians are scumbags by the very nature of the type of person who seeks to rule over the lives of others. Now a Stalinist twist of seizing private property. Smooth move! The last time this nation sold its soul for a little security was in the Great Depression when FDR took away a lot of freedom for a few crumbs from his table. It also resulted in the loss of the right to own gold as well. Now an energy crisis of epic proportions threatens that security once again. The more things change - the more they stay the same. Hmmm...

Black Blade

(05/08/2001; 21:56:59 MDT - Msg ID: 53259)

Cheney Blunt with Blame for Energy Crisis

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/kpix/20010508/lo/427_1.html
Snippit:

Vice President Dick Cheney (news) is placing the blame for California's energy crisis squarely on the shoulders of Californians. Calling it a simple case of neglect, Cheney says, "What's happened in California, I would argue, is they've taken the route of saying, 'well we can conserve our way out of the problem. All we have to do is conserve. we don't have to produce any more power.' So they haven't built any more electric plants in the last ten years in California and today they've got rolling blackouts, because they don't have enough electricity. They've got rising prices. They've got a whole complex of problems that are caused by relying only on conservation and not doing anything about the supply side of the equation."

Black Blade: "�and they danced, played and .." Ah heck, you get the point. This energy crisis is going critical and it will take out the economy as we know. Gold is a form of portfolio insurance that has been tested throughout all known history, even the Thracians had gold and some of the worlds finest jewelry centuries before the Egyptians. A bit o� the metal should be stored by all.

Black Blade

(05/08/2001; 22:09:46 MDT - Msg ID: 53260)

Gas Bills Are Rising Again

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/wrtv/20010508/lo/395235_1.html
Snippit:

Natural gas companies say that the price of your gas bills will be going up.

Black Blade: Prices will remain higher from now on as there is a natural gas supply crunch. There are not enough drill rigs, pipelines, and storage. Virtually all new power generation in NG-fired. From now on forward, NG will have to be stored in summer as use has increased logarithmically. NG storage is still far below last years levels and though this summer could be a squeaker, we must face the fact that this winter could be deadly. BTW, a Grasshopper friend of mine called earlier today. He said, "it's not easy being green when you can't charge your electric car." Yeah, he lives in California no less. We are most definitely living in "interesting times."

Black Blade

(05/08/2001; 22:20:48 MDT - Msg ID: 53261)

Energy costs feed the inflation monster

http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/story.html?f=/stories/20010507/553893.html
Consumers feel immediate pinch of higher oil and gas prices as effects begin to be seen in other sectors of economy

Snippit:

If you've paid a heating bill, filled up your car with gas, bought a steak for your backyard barbeque or stocked up on cigarettes recently, you might feel you've just been fleeced. Join the crowd. While many economists keep telling us inflation is dead, the sharp runup in the price of energy last year is beginning to work through the economy, nudging up prices on everything from air travel to hotel roomes. At the same time, seasonal factors have conspired to push up the price of many consumer staples such as meat and vegetables.

Black Blade: As stated here many times. Only Cheetah and the other jungle animals just don't get it. "Bungle in the Jungle."

Black Blade

(05/08/2001; 22:29:28 MDT - Msg ID: 53262)

SOME TIPS ON WHAT TO BUY FOR THE RECESSION by John Crudele

http://www.nypostonline.com/business/30063.htm
Snippit:

There is the possibility that all these rate cuts will panic the inflation-wary bond market - already worried about rising energy costs - and cause borrowing costs to climb. That's already happening. But that anomaly shouldn't continue forever. If the economy remains weak, bond prices should rally. And if all these rate cuts do panic the bond market, gold's the place to be.

Black Blade: Crudele nails it. Portfolio insurance.

Black Blade

(05/08/2001; 22:38:39 MDT - Msg ID: 53263)

Blackouts, Power Prices Cost California Productivity (Update1)

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AOvfHNhaTQmxhY2tv
Snippit:

Summer electricity prices in the U.S. will be 5 percent higher than last year, the government said. A study last month from the Bay Area Economic Forum, a government- and business- backed research group, said the costs ripple through the economy.

Black Blade: Sorry but I just had to post a link to this article. Blackouts are just an inconvenience? Better think again.

Golden Truth

(05/08/2001; 23:02:52 MDT - Msg ID: 53264)

TO BLACKBLADE!

You know the more I read your stuff the more addicted I become. Your Grasshopers eating all that energy stuff just SLAYS me, what a riot,,, I love your stuff, and it's real world and real time to boot!

[You are] definitely not a "one horse two cow outfit"!

Thanks for all [your] unselfish time, you put in here, it is not in VAIN!!! It is much appreciated, by thousands of other readers here at the Golden forum.

Thanks again Black Blade, you are awesome!!!!!!!!

Golden Truth.....

Black Blade

(05/08/2001; 23:39:43 MDT - Msg ID: 53265)

Golden Truth

Why thank you very much. I just try to bring the "Big Picture" into a littler better focus. I am posting a bit earlier than usual as I must contend with an increased workload supplying NG to hungry plagues of locusts (Grasshoppers). We are fast approaching the end game as the energy crisis is the key to the economy and try as they might at the BLS with phoney baloney statistical filters, there is real inflation. Every postwar recession has been preceded by an energy crisis. This one is shaping up as one that dwarfs all those of the past. It encompasses all energy for one reason or another, and not just oil and gasoline as in time past. Portfolio insurance (gold) is more critical than ever, and the big players are quietly accumulating. They aren't doing this because they just like the color and feel. To them the color of money is green, So ask yourself, why are they doing this? When you (and everyone else) know - then - Check Mate! Game over. Golden Dreams!

Black Blade

Old Yeller

(05/09/2001; 00:15:33 MDT - Msg ID: 53266)

Another one bites the dust

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010508/n08587820.html
So the productivity miracle is looking a little rough around the edges,is it?

It's going to be interesting to see how they spin this one.Will it be a short term aberation or perhaps something new'specially designed for this little dilemma.

How long are foreign creditors going to buy into this? View Yesterday's Discussion.

Black Blade

(05/09/2001; 00:32:35 MDT - Msg ID: 53267)

Munk comes to defense of Barrick's gold hedging (Defending the Undefendable)

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010508/n08594924.html
Snippit:

TORONTO, May 8 (Reuters) - Barrick Gold Corp.'s (Toronto:ABX.TO) chairman came to the defense of his company's controversial hedging program on Tuesday arguing it helps, not hurts, the price of gold. "Hedging the way Barrick does it, not only does no harm to a gold price over any period of time, but it actually assists in the evolution of a healthy gold price,'' he told shareholders at the company's annual meeting.

Black Blade: Somehow when I read this statement from the Chunky Munky I think of that sone from Pink Floyd's Dark Side of the Moon, now what was it called? - Oh yeah, "Brain Damage." Who does he think he's kidding? I'm sure that Barrick shareholders are thrilled at the great return on equity for holding Barrick shares. Oh to be a fly on the wall during one of Barrick's Board meetings.

Board Meeting at Barrick Headquarters:

Munky: Well we did not do so well this quarter. What do we do? Randall, what do you suggest?

Oliphant (rhymes with elephant): How about increasing management bonuses?

Munky: Splendid idea! The shareholders won't care, they hold our shares don't they? What a bunch of losers.

Oilphant (rhymes with elephant): Yeah, maybe they're brain dead. OK then, that's all for this quarters board meeting, Oh yeah, hey Peter, I found this old rock song we can play at the annual shareholders meeting, it's called Brain Damage.

Munky: Cool, maybe I'll also give a really lame speech about how selling forward many years of gold production is good for the gold price. After all, they buy Barrick Gold's shares, right?

Netking

(05/09/2001; 01:08:56 MDT - Msg ID: 53268)

@AEL

AEL(53243)
I bought them in a Western country outside of the USA, from a large local dealer who focuses on Silverware & PM's.
Cheers Netking

Netking

(05/09/2001; 01:18:41 MDT - Msg ID: 53269)

@Carl H - GFMS "Propoganda"

Carl H(53245) - Regarding GFMS Silver Figures
For sure silver is coming from sources we can't
indentify, but from leasing. Whether it is from The Central Banks of the Phillipenes, or China(although unlikely) is immaterial. This is a source that is highly uneconomic and unsustainable. But take a look for substantiation on the China flows, and you won't see squat. These China stories are made up by GFMS, and I challenge them to verify their statements. It's always, they know privately, but can't
back it up publicly. It's pure rubbish, just like their inventory figures.
To think the Silver Association publishes GFMS's work as fact,is a disgrace. If they can't back up what they claim to be is true, just assume what they're saying is garbage, and you'll be safe. Cheers Netking

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/09/2001; 02:40:20 MDT - Msg ID: 53270)

Packing FOA into a powerful little nutshell for those of little patience...

http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/From the latest trek on the Gold Trail...
---BEGIN EXCERPTS---
FOA (05/08/01; 20:54:48MT - usagold.com msg#71)
One of the major problems faced by past hard money planers was that any time real wealth, gold, is denominated as credit money, it always placed the relationship between the rule of law and the rule of gold at odds. If our laws defined gold as official money, and lent it, then by association the law had to define a portion of gold that did not exist in circulation.

To deal in the future,,,,, to borrow,,,,, to capitalize would require the use of a fiat function. Gold could / would be a final trade; I'll give you ten cars (or gold) for your house,,, deal done. If I want more time to pay, I and we must engage a fiat loan.

Installing a trading medium outside lawful money that acts as a wealth savings and a final trade will not destroy the bankers, governments or paper credit inflation. But, it will allow society a way to judge political efficiency. A nation's productivity will then have two scales to measure with, one it must live with (final payment) and another it cannot live without (future payment).
----END----

Trail Guide, my friend, I do believe the message will get through to some people if only they allow themselves the time to ruminate carefully on your comments above. One never knows what combination of words will prove most salient to various people, and thus we offer many variations on the theme to be conveyed. That said, I think you've struck upon the shortest combination offering the strongest impact.

While we have a great many proponents calling for something called "hard money", it should be getting ever clearer in their perceptions that even the "hardest" of monies quickly become quite ethereal upon the moment of being borrowed. Hence my well-worn refrain, "(fiat) currency is for borrowing and spending, while gold is for saving". And as you aptly point out, should the person choose to offer "payment in full" rather than "payment on the installment plan", then just as is the case today, that person can choose to liquidate an adequate portion of their true savings rather than choosing to finance the purchase with future earnings.

And as the many participants in the cycling economy play their inflationary tunes with elastic fiat currencies, the dwindling failures of the currencies won't drag down the value of real wealth items such as gold held in savings. This is a refreshing departure from the path often seen and suffered with "hard money" gold currency throughout history. It is only when gold becomes detached from the currency after the inevitably debilitating credit expansions that it reclaims a level of its wholely-owned wealth value.

And lest we forget, as of 1971 gold has shed its credit attachments to to dollar, but yet suffers in obscured value from inflated credit attachments to a realm of gold derivatives. But as you know so well, this too shall pass. We purchase gold today in preparation for that event -- a final derivative default that leaves the derivatives utterly worthless without even a "currency function" such as the defaulted gold-dollar was at least able to cling to.

Yukon

(05/09/2001; 03:11:18 MDT - Msg ID: 53271)

FOIA Request..."and the cradle will rock!"

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/tlaga050901.htmlGood Morning to all!

Thought we could all do our part in support of GATA and Mr. Turks' findings in discovering the rationale and details of the new classification of gold at the U.S. Mint's West Point facility in New York. With events moving forward in the GATA/Howe lawsuit, it certainly would help the POG if it were known that a swap with the Bundesbank from U.S. reserves has taken place without Congressional consent (ESF?).

Further, if the U.S. stockpile allocated in Germany has already been sold or lent into the market, then indeed some brows may krinkle in Washington (but I doubt it...maybe when there dental gold will pay off their mortgage). As most who are following gold know by now, the Treasury Dept.s reclassification of gold at West Point is certainly suspicious to say the least. If it is an "innocent reclassification", then so be it. But I think we all owe it to ourselves to hold our government accountable and reveal the facts.

I suggest we all duplicate the efforts to bring our Secretary of the Treasury to a point of full disclosure. Certainly, a letter similar to the link above would go a long way toward stating that We the People are not going away, and we demand a simple explanation to a simple question. Perhaps we really can play an active role in the fate of our ever evolving gold market (that is aside from accumulation at huge discounts).

As President Thomas Jefferson is quoted as saying, "The price of Liberty is eternal vigillance." I could not agree more. Let us bring what we can to this battle in the war against gold. For as we all know, it is truly a war on personal, economic and financial freedom.

May our hearts shine bright as the golden sun, yet shield us from its burn;
May our minds be as scales of Justice with which to judge and further learn;
We hope for peace in all our lives yet beckon to the call; For courage we hold on to our (s)words as we repell the next wave of assault.

To quills, fellow Knights...let us make a stand now on paper, before we are forced to defend our physical with physical!

Yukon

P.S.: Re: FDR's E/O Consfiscating gold in 1933, can anyone show me where in our Constitution Congress has the power to give authority to the President to enact an Executive Order that has jurisdiction over the people of the fifty states?

Also: Can anyone tell me where in our Constitution it is stated that Congress can re-delegate a power to a private group that we have delegated to them?

More later. Thanks to all for many great lessons.

Canuck

(05/09/2001; 04:42:57 MDT - Msg ID: 53272)

I see said the blind man

I had a heck of a time falling off to sleep last night envisioning the world in another decade.

With the 'boomers' turning the corner into retirement and into old age how are we going to pay for them. Retirement and health costs will be enormus.

As the population increases, if in fact it does, and with fewer energy resources how are we going to 'divi up' less for more?

I can see the governments desparate ploy now. With huge debts the cost to 'carry' an ageing population into retirement will be the final spike in the bankruptcy coffin. If the government can manipulate the stock markets rise to fulfil two goals, that is to lower debt and secure self-sustaining funds for the 'old folks', perhaps they can wiggle out of this bankruptcy mess.

We know (and maybe they know) that prosperity cannot be bought so what is the end result? A failing of the system, a debt so massive that cascading cross-defaults will swallow everything. I cannot see it any other way.

So what does this mean? It means that I, as an individual, must prepare for the inevitable. I cannot save 'money' for the end-game; paper will have no value, I must save tangible, hard, physical assets that possess value. These items must have strength in good times and bad, honor in ancient and future time and represent wealth for which I can carry with me.

When people begin to understand that governments will fail to protect them from harm and wealth evaporation, one by one they will seek self-protection as described above. They will leave the govenment 'nest' and move out on their own.

This will happen slowly, as each realizes the self perpetrating fiat bubble will not solve future problems, the enactment we are witnessing is a 'band-aid' that will fall off and we left on our own.

I have begun, and only begun to wean myself from fiat destruction and only require the patience to self-administer my 'plan' for wealth preservation. I am beginning to understand that this may take years, I am beginning to live with this. In the interim I will accumulate hard assets so when, not if, governments self-destruct I will not be reliant on them in any way, shape or form.

Canuck.

Canuck

(05/09/2001; 04:49:27 MDT - Msg ID: 53273)

Your 53265 hits the nail on the head.

Excellent summation.

ausome

(05/09/2001; 06:32:17 MDT - Msg ID: 53274)

POG spike

Can't sem to get the kitco site up, seems to be down. GE has POG up $2. Any thoughts as to what the GATA camp are thinking as they prepare? Is this the beginning of the end game. Go GATA go gold.

ausome

(05/09/2001; 06:39:02 MDT - Msg ID: 53275)

(No Subject)

POG up $4 at GE. Still cant reach Kitco.

WAC (Wide Awake Club)

(05/09/2001; 06:48:13 MDT - Msg ID: 53276)

(No Subject)

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/html/news.htmlHere is an article from Business section of Evening Standard.

Boost for Fed in gold fight

by Lauren Chambliss in Washington

AMERICAN investment banks and government officials are hoping for a speedy end to a trial that accuses them of manipulating the gold market, following a report from the London Business School. The report has refuted the idea
that US officials and Wall Street bankers have conspired to keep down the price of gold.

As the gold price slumped in the past several years, conspiracy theories have risen in inverse proportion. The most popular is that US and European governments have manipulated the market to keep the price down for the
benefit of the wealthier gold-holding nations, at the expense of the poorer gold-producing nations.

Late last year, a group of gold investors backed by the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee filed suit in the District Court in Boston against Federal Reserve and Treasury officials and five top investment banks, including
Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, JP Morgan and Chase Manhattan.

The suit alleges US government, the Bank for International Settlements and big investment banks 'co-ordi-nated the sale and leasing of gold and the sale of gold derivatives' to keep the price low as part of a long-term strategy to stem institutional losses, prop up the dollar and minimise
inflation in the US and Europe.

Associate Professor Anthony Neuberger of the London Business School, however, reviewed gold market data over the past decade and found no unusual activity that would point to market manipulation.

The report debunking the conspiracy theory coincides with a high-profile gathering of gold industry leaders in Durban, South Africa, this week at which members of the Texas-based Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee say they will reveal new evidence to support their allegation the Federal Reserve
and US Treasury have intervened in the gold market.

GATA chairman Bill Murphy has been quoted as saying he thinks the gold market manipulation will 'turn out to be one of the biggest financial scandals in US history'.

Its suit charges that several major investment houses have appeared as heavy sellers of gold on the New York Commodities Exchange whenever necessary to kill any significant rally.

Whether the case goes to trial will depend on a judge agreeing there is enough initial evidence to warrant a trial. A motion to dismiss the suit has been filed by Lawrence Summers, Alan Greenspan and other current and
former government officials named as defendants. Summers was Treasury Secretary when the suit was filed late last year. The Department of Justice's memorandum asking the court to dismiss the case reasserts the US Treasury's claim it has not traded in gold or gold derivatives since 1978.

'The GATA people are out of their minds and the London Business School
report shows it,' said a spokesperson for a major US investment bank, who
asked not to be named. 'A conspiracy between the German Bundesbank, the
BIS, the Treasury, the Fed, and Five big Wall Street banks? Come on. We
hope for a speedy dismissal.'

� Associated Newspapers Ltd., 09 May 2001
Terms and Conditions
This Is London

Chris Powell

(05/09/2001; 06:58:49 MDT - Msg ID: 53277)

London Evening Standard reports putdown of GATA

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/752The other side is starting to have to
take note of us.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Chris Powell

(05/09/2001; 07:08:31 MDT - Msg ID: 53278)

Kitco confirms gold price up $3.80 at 9:09a ET

I'd like to think that it's the Durban
conference!

Gold Trail Update

(05/09/2001; 07:20:23 MDT - Msg ID: 53279)

The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated

The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.

Mr Gresham

(05/09/2001; 08:34:21 MDT - Msg ID: 53280)

Canuck

Randy said: "One never knows what combination of words will prove most salient to various people, and thus we offer many variations on the theme to be conveyed. "

Your "combination of words" today was an eloquent statement of our whole reason for being here...

Lease rates flat at 2%, XAU up, POGster spiking...Are we heading for a three-fer day?

(Oops, getting a Cole Porter moment: "...POGster's spiking, and the lease rates are high...")

Carl H

(05/09/2001; 09:00:18 MDT - Msg ID: 53281)

Netking: GFMS Silver Survey

We would all like to have verifiable data on gold and silver. If you can point to better data, I'm sure everyone would be very grateful. Given how opaque these markets are, I doubt that better data exists in the public domain.

Yes, unfortunately the Silver Survey is forced to resort to private sources for some of their claims. I would say that this is common practice for industry organizations that deal with sensitive information. I accept this and evaluate their claims accordingly.

Now, let's examine the claims about China dishoarding Silver by asking a number of questions:

First, do they have anything to back their claim at all? On p40 they state "Of the officially recorded imports into Hong Kong in 1999 over 70% came from China". I would take this to mean that they at least have a lower bound on the silver exports from the public record.

Second, is it possible for the Chinese to have enough silver to export? Prior to 1935, China was on a silver standard. This could give them a significant supply of confiscated coin as a possible source. Additionally, they do have significant silver mining capacity. I would say from this that it is quite reasonable to assume that the Chinese have enough to dishoard the amounts indcated on p31 of the Silver Survey.

Third, can we postulate any good reason why China would dishoard silver? Simple, to gain entry into the WTO and get permanent MFN status. These seem like good motivations to me.

Finally, I'll make a bit of a leap and guess that Clinton's current vist to China have something to do with Silver...(Probably trading Taiwan for 100MOz of silver ;-)

Buena Fe

(05/09/2001; 09:11:12 MDT - Msg ID: 53282)

U.S. Economy: Treasury Wants a New Measure of Trade

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AOvlRKRSrVS5TLiBFAN INTERESTING READ........IS O'NEILL LOOKING FOR EXCUSES OR WHAT?

``If Japanese owners of dollar assets needed to repatriate those investments, then a drop in the dollar might set off other people to do the same,'' said Robert Solow, a Nobel Prize-winning economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Solow and a colleague, Franco Modigliani, wrote an article in the New York Times in April suggesting that the current-account deficit may be ``the greatest potential danger'' facing the U.S. economy in coming years.

Value Added

The article prompted a telephone call from O'Neill, keeper of the Bush administration's strong dollar policy, who wanted to know whether Solow thought he was overlooking dangers of the trade deficit. A strong dollar makes U.S. exports less competitive, and imports cheaper.

``We thought the issue hadn't been getting enough policy attention,'' Solow said in an interview.

The U.S. could try to lower the value of the dollar, making U.S. products cheaper and imports more expensive. Or it could erect additional barriers to trade and investment.

So far, O'Neill and other Bush administration officials aren't changing dollar policy, and continue to press for greater liberalization of trade laws. The debate over the current account ``comes out of a thought process and a set of conventions about how we think about our economy and the world economy that I think are wrong,'' O'Neill said.

Buena Fe

(05/09/2001; 09:12:44 MDT - Msg ID: 53283)

NOTE

FORGOT TO MENTION THAT THOSE WERE ONLY SNIPPETS OF A MUCH LARGER DISCUSSION BY THE FULL ARTICLE.

AEL

(05/09/2001; 09:14:11 MDT - Msg ID: 53284)

netking

Netking #53268
Yes, I assumed as much. Actually I meant literally
"where do you live". I am to the west of Detroit.
Would be nice sometime to chat in the flesh with
fellow silverbug, if there is more than 2 of us in
the same timezone. ;-)

Buena Fe

(05/09/2001; 09:16:22 MDT - Msg ID: 53285)

My Policy vs US Policy ( I can vote without leaving a hanging chad!)

Forget the US Admin's dollar policy.........I have my own $ policy.........convert it to da shinny ASAP.

Mr Gresham

(05/09/2001; 09:17:47 MDT - Msg ID: 53286)

FOA

I haven't been much of a gold standard thinker, so the relation of gold and legal tender laws doesn't go very far back into my very recent learnings about "money". (Two years ago I couldn't have told you how the Fed and banks make fractional reserve fiat.)

(Despite my handle, which drawing upon my namesake would tell me that, even under a "gold as legal tender" regime, fiat might drive gold back into hiding. Maybe FOA is telling us that, overall concerning human nature over the millennia, gold is ALWAYS somewhat (and very realistically) "in hiding", and that any effort to create systems of "public trustworthiness" concerning gold are, well, worth only the paper they're printed on?)

FOA: "...forbid the enforcement of collateral attachment anytime physical gold is traded, lent or involved in a trade..." How likely is such legislation, or is it in the cards already? Yes, it seems that in our debtor-sympathetic world (behind which many BIG institutions are hiding even now), it would be easier to put through a law letting them off the hook, rather than protecting creditors. So wealth-holders would be doubly leery of lending their gold. But it is just hard right now to imagine ANY laws being put through concerning gold (keeping it off the radar entirely), let alone International laws?

Now, what would be the effect of this on gold's value as a wealth holding? If I know that other gold-holders are less likely to lend theirs, would it initially hold up gold's exchange value for "other things"? I guess so. The borrowers will not be able to sell my gold in the marketplace in order to engage in fiat enterprises; it will be up to me only, to sell it for "final payments." Right?

But borrowing gold would create gold demand at re-payment time, but then re-payments are often rolled over, and meanwhile the Debtor's "good credit standing" is being substituted for the gold as a "wealth holding" in the Creditor's portfolio. ("Inflation") And eventually those "credit standings" deteriorate over time for the masses. Hmmmmm....

Second question: (or is it more of a post- mortem?) "Investors and the industry in total, brought into paper based gold and yet they fully well knew 90% of it had only cash equity as the collateral on the other side."

We as individuals would tend to see our precious savings at risk in such a system, more quickly than a large gold/paper trading institution making its money off a short-term horizon, percentage commission and fees profit picture, running against other institutions doing the same game (and who can resist playing?), with a government/Fed rescue guarantee backing them. Maybe the risk/reward picture works out for them that way?

Was it the institutions, manned by employees not risking their own money, Economics 101-educated (perhaps younger) functionaries just going to work each day collecting paychecks, with no real incentives to probe for the weakness in paper markets, and stand back from them? Believing that they can always reverse a position in an ever-liquid market? (Since Black-Scholes always assumes a liquid market and not a "crowded trade".)

I guess I'm looking for your take on WHO made these mistakes, and why. Because it is hard from our individual perspectives here to imagine that the investment business is run in such an UN-businesslike manner. Aren't these people supposed to be collectively a little bit wiser, more experienced, and more responsible than we, uh, amateurs? Instead, of the extreme opposite, a bunch of wild cowboys and riverboat gamblers. Is it something about the nature of "institutional momentum"?

Or is it, again, a risk/reward calculation that works in these times? "Keep the gold yourself, flush the bank..."

Econoclast

(05/09/2001; 09:24:41 MDT - Msg ID: 53287)

Wealth outside the credit realm/Viewing the forest from the trail

A refreshing hike! I have been shown the shortcomings in my thoughts in a way that demands me to think. I clearly see that gold as wealth must be kept completely outside the credit realm for it to function properly.

"But, it will allow society a way to judge political efficiency"

The thought that is left lingering in my mind is "what would be the motivation for the architects to allow and even encourage the above?" I am searching my "internal hard drive" for some data that may lead to an answer. The EU seems to be a socialistic leaning concern that would not be amused with competition when it is fully grown. Would freegold be a bone thrown to other factions in the world to achieve their alliance? I am fairly certain that an answer would not involve the "best interests of the people".

I am coming to appreciate the true difficulty in seeing the forest through the trees when my own life experience is so short and my thoughts are shaped by experiencing such a small portion of the timeline of our money system.
I have so many more questions, but I will search within for some answers. I will throw out one real quickly though:

Right now, I can buy two bottles of fine first growth futures for about one ounce of gold. Will this ratio still be the same when we have reached our destination?

Thank you.

agbull

(05/09/2001; 09:36:59 MDT - Msg ID: 53288)

Investment help for tech investors

http://www.herald-trib.com/2news.cfm?ID=45192Got a kick out of the way this guy wrote the article..

JMB

(05/09/2001; 10:01:04 MDT - Msg ID: 53289)

CNBC and GOLD

From the floor of the venerable New York Stock exchange we are assurred by Bob Pissanti that "gold isn't going anywhere." From the CNBC spin room we hear Ted David's disclaimer that CNBC is not involved in a conspiracy against gold. So far so good. I can handle that. Hey, confirming anecdotal evidence that gold is certainly not over bought. I like it.

But then comes Joe "How Does My Hair Look" Kernan. This guy, this M.I.T. asshole really frosts me. (Sorry, but he doesn't deserve to be called an "anus".)

It's true that many of us have purchased gold at higher levels. In '97 I started buying at $350 or so. The lower it dropped, the more I bought. Thanks to the generous members of this forum, I not only have a fairly good understanding of economics and what will certainly take place with the purchasing power of the U. S. Dollar in the not too distant future but I also have a descent "stash". I feel very confident that I'm on the right side of the gold market and so should you.

The "Hair Hat" on CNBC with a degree from M.I.T. is one dumb, arrogant, inconsiderate prick. He really thinks it's funny that people have lost money in the gold market. What a sad little man.

Please excuse the cussing....I was pissed!

USAGOLD

(05/09/2001; 10:01:14 MDT - Msg ID: 53290)

Today's Report: Centaur Collapse Behind Gold Move?

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html5/9/01 (www.usagold.com). . .
. Gold surged in early New York
trade pushed higher by a
combination of fund buying and
consistent support from physical
buyers on dips. There is also some
speculation in the gold market
this morning that the quick move
to the upside might be the result
of Australia's Centaur Mining
Company's collapse. . . . . . .

To read the complete story,
please join us at our private
access COMMENTARY & REVIEW
page. A quick, one-time
registration is required. Please go to link above

Old Yeller

(05/09/2001; 10:01:46 MDT - Msg ID: 53291)

East Asia's official gold holdings

http://sf-web1.businesswire.com/cgi-bin/f_headline.cgi?day0/211292370&ticker=
To me,this is one of the bigger riddles of the FX/gold reserve debate.Given the devastating currency collapses experienced in the region in 1997 and 1998,how can they leave themselves so vulnerable to a US dollar collapse?

Is maintaining trade with the US so important that they will risk trading tangible finished goods for dollar commitments of a somewhat questionable nature?Where is the protection for their citizens efforts over this period?

Shake up the pot,boys,$800 billion is a awful lot to put on one rather tired lookin' horse.

Thanks to LionsBreath at kitco for the link.

Gandalf the White

(05/09/2001; 10:14:19 MDT - Msg ID: 53292)

Message from Felix the Cat

http://us.tom.com/Archive/2001/5/8-89219.htmlForum puts HK in spotlight
china daily
Tuesday May 08, 2001

HONG KONG: Hong Kong is all set for the opening of a global economic forum to be attended by President Jiang Zemin, Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and former US leader Bill Clinton. (<;-) Now we know what he is doing!)

Among those expected to speak at this year's Fortune Global Forum are Vice-Premier Qian Qichen, Minister of the State Development and Planning Commission Zeng Peiyan, Foreign Trade and Economic Co-operation Minister Shi Guangsheng, Minister of Information Industry Wu Jichuan and People's Bank of China Governor Dai Xianglong.

Other forum speakers include Shinawatra and chief executives of Microsoft Corp, Yahoo and Dell Computer group.

Hong Kong SAR Executive Council convener Leung Chun-ying hailed the forum as the perfect opportunity for the city to showcase its strengths and latest developments on a global stage.

"Hosting such a large-scale, star-studded international conference is a very good opportunity for Hong Kong to let international political and business leaders know about the latest developments in Hong Kong nearly four years after the handover," he said.

"I believe this Hong Kong edition of the Forum will be a big success as foreign guests can personally experience Hong Kong's vitality, see its strengths and witness what has been happening," he added.

Up to 3,000 police officers will be deployed around the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre for the two-day forum to insure security, organizers said.

The forum will kick off at 5:45 pm today in the new wing of the massive convention centre.

SOURCE:china daily-----
Copyright 2001 TOM.COM LIMITED. All rights reserved
===
<;-)

schippi

(05/09/2001; 10:31:42 MDT - Msg ID: 53293)

Golden Breakout

http://www.SelectSectors.com/agpm70.gif Select Gold Hourly Chart up to Noon.

ORO

(05/09/2001; 11:40:43 MDT - Msg ID: 53294)

FOA - NO LAW

FOA, I have been working on a broad monetary article intended for posting here, hoping to touch on many points you have addressed and many you have not. The discussion of the past few days, has prompted me to break silence now rather than when the article is complete.

My take on Europe and the Euro are that they are desperate attempts to save European governments from competition among each other and the rest of the world, and of their trying to maintain the political hegemony of the small bureaucratic and political elite within Europe. The purpose of the Euro is to trap capital and trade within a political block controlled by this elite. It has nothing to do with any of the following: political subservience to the US, the cost of using the dollar for international trade, the dollar's wobbly past or future, trade efficiencies, free trade or liberty of any sort. It has only to do with political power attempting a last ditch effort of governments of Europe against the forces of globalization and economic and technological progress. And the last stand for Europe's sclerotic government assisted industry, inflexible trade unions, and abominable and costly bureaucracy of Brussels and of the various capitals of Europe. It is a last stand of socialism and the EU power politics elite.

Your last Trail posting is a perfect demonstration of these intentions. The legal provisions you talk of will not destroy or prevent a future gold banking system that might compete with the fiat insanity. It will destroy the countries that sign on to it, which are likely not to include the US and most of Asia unless taken over politically by EU influences (which are not that strong there). The attachment of collateral to gold is innate in the action of trading gold. Without that, there is no trade in gold possible at all. All trade involves the creation of a debt, at least temporarily. The debt may be secured by the items traded, but transactions must involve a debt. Transactions also must involve a contract. Ownership of anything is title, either assumed through possession, or documented. A system that does not allow collateral backing a contract denominated in gold is a system that does not allow gold to trade, and endangers title to gold not in possession. Doubtless, the purpose of such law would be to allow governments to confiscate gold held in custody (not in possession) if the attempts to prevent monetary use of gold fail.

It is another attempt by EU governments to block the exits from a future Europe they imagine they can control. If implemented successfully, it will be Europe that will be destroyed by the absence of an efficient credit system keyed to effective gold denomination of debt. It would mean that the only interest rate available would be the innately incorrect one set by monetary authorities. It is completely impossible for central planners to know what the appropriate interest rate for any money they control could be. The concept of a "better managed" fiat currency is impossible. A fiat currency can not eliminate the presence of a non-economic motivation for its own existence. No depth and thoroughness of study of economics can ever reveal to the would be monetary manager what the markets would do without him and without his currency. His existence alone is enough to eliminate the possibility of efficient trade. Why would anyone trust a monetary system without par to any particular good?

Trade is done good for good for mutual benefit of the traders involved. Money is just the means to transact trade over time and space. 90-95% of trade is transacted over time, with the final good B traded for good A being realized even centuries in the future. Gold has forever been the most efficient medium of such transactions. The value of gold comes primarily from its use as the monetary intermediary for these transactions over time, the longer the time, the greater the need for gold to be the monetary medium. The legal provisions you imply can only have the intention (but not likely the effect) of preventing the use of gold in trade, attempting to eliminate the use of gold for bearing interest. EVERYTHING bears an interest rate. Interest is more fundamental to economics than trade. The interest on money derives from the interest of goods over goods, not the other way round. Interest is embedded in all contracts and in all transactions over time, it is the innate result of there being a future. It is the discount of future goods to present goods. NO MORE and NO LESS. Gold bears an interest by its very nature as a good desired by humans. Its use in trade requires it to bear an explicit contracted interest.

By prohibiting gold from bearing interest you are thinking that people would not suffer from the dilutive effect of gold credit on gold values. The thought is wrong because it does not consider that gold credit is extended and owned only at a market rate � unless governments try to change that rate through central bank intervention or through taxation and regulation. When gold interest rates are set by the markets, they allow market participants to charge an interest rate that they expect will compensate them for possible dilutive effects of credit extension. Therefore, undue credit expansion that actually causes dilutive effects on gold values CAN NOT HAPPEN over any length of time. Gold credit in a free market is a cyclical affair that includes expansion as well as contraction and is caused by the appearance of investment opportunities (their pursuit, and subsequent disappearance), shortages, abundances, and the general need of the markets for a stable monetary unit in the face of unavoidable error in prediction of the future by market participants.

It is governments, and they alone, that can and do manipulate interest rates and credit quantities for purposes at odds with the interest of the bulk of market participants and who cause expanded credit without allowing people to hedge against the dilutive effect. They do this through the imposition of government bodies to regulate and intermediate in the monetary system. They do this in order to gain control of the process of allocating accumulated purchasing power for the expressed purpose of favoring government, and for government officials to sell favors in the market place, where government can now decide to whom purchasing power would flow.

The extent to which governments make use of these tools of power is also the extent they damage the economies of their people. Central planners, whether well intentioned or not (and there is not the slightest reason to suppose that EU central planners, among them the ECB, have any honorable and beneficial intentions other than for themselves), are incapable of producing optimal decisions. They must always reduce billions of decisions into one central one. Inherent to this is that they will be wrong decisions no matter what they are, and far beyond just being wrong, they must be destructive of the interests of most people, and result in reduced or negative real long term growth of the economies they control. In time, the more planned an economy is, the worse its performance.

The future you suggest is worse for the gold holder and the fiat trader both, than the present.

Therefore, your suggested "protocol" can not be but an intellectual musing of derelict monetary boobs such as occupy the higher reaches of central banking and politics, and at church altars and mosque towers. Such laws were last successfully implemented by the complete confiscation of gold. This is FDR all over again. And it is Napoleon all over again. I am again astounded by the blindness you exhibit regarding the nature of money and banking, and can only assume you are fostering the opinion that stands in the obvious middle ground between Islamic tenet and the desires of government bureaucracy. Even Islamic oil royalty will see that the laws envisioned would eliminate the bulk of the trade value of gold they have accumulated (if the law were to succeed in international implementation, which it will not). They would also see that it is just another form of obvious "punishment" for the over-leveraged gold banking system in the political sphere of Europe by canceling their liabilities and enforcing their claims. We have been there before, and we have seen the results. They are destructive of all participants.

I sincerely wish to warn you, FOA and Another, that the relative powers of governments to do what you suggest are gone. Government's desire to "have the pie" has matured to having a claim against part of it. Governments (politicians and bureaucrats) have learned that a declining share of a growing pie is better than complete possession of a disappearing pie. The old industrial "economies of scale" and the huge physical nature of investments of the past are being replaced everywhere with economies of association, of knowledge, design, and innovation. These are devoid of borders and can be moved quickly if not at will outside the reach of governments that wish to grab these new assets of the modern economy. The ability of governments to "farm" the economy started to decline in the late 1960s, it has been declining further and more rapidly with the decline in the steepness of the close by computer power cost curve and the rise of the far end of the computing power curve, which has turned from a gradual function to a near stepwise function. Advantages of size derive from the ability to organize more rapidly than competitors, enemies, and tax avoiders; which depends on the advantageous and quicker access and understanding of greater information volumes. This advantage is maintained by the relative cost of having an order of magnitude higher computing and communications power. That relative cost has been rising by a factor of 4 with every new microprocessor cycle, with the next step up over the current generation investment plans (cost $13 billion per each unit) � tentatively planned for 2008-2010 by leading chip makers � being so costly as to require some 5% of US GDP for each production unit. This cost is completely outside the reach of any one government, and must be shared with the broad free markets internationally, therefore eliminating the last major advantage of organizational size and with it the future of corporatism and the corporate state hierarchies that grew with it. Large corporations are attempting still to enhance and extend the longevity of their franchises, by merging and by adopting a more horizontal peer to peer network like structure that could allow the benefits of further specialization of their staff. But even in the most successful of these, the access to a shared broad pool of highly differentiated globally available expertise - available to all market participants, is badly lacking because of the desire for a proprietary rather than shared expertise that provides competitive advantage. The quick and temporary self-assembly of specialist groups on a per project basis that is possible in a free-wheeling global networked economy, is not at all possible for a company trying to maintain a unique franchise, and well outside the possibility of government control or assistance.

The only means governments will have in order to extort resources from this global talent pool is through maintenance of a monetary and banking system that is both attractive enough in performance to keep these people using it for savings investment and transactions, and available for governments to obtain a share of the income and assets of these people by having the banking and transactions records available. Too high a tax rate, through inflation or through direct taxation would eliminate the use of this system in favor of a parallel unofficial and networked system that would be closed to government awareness as well as government access.

If contractual gold is made impossible, as you suggest is the intention of the Nabobs of central banking and politics, then it will be silver, or platinum, or palladium, or rhodium, or a hidden gold title unit that would fill the shoes of contract gold and overtake some or all of gold's role as a store of wealth, a money for time transactions of trade.

Finally, liquid tradable wealth is a monetary role. Disconnection of gold from official monetary roles can only destroy the fiat moneys and the economies on which they are imposed. Leaving gold without the realm of contracts and debts eliminates its utility as savings and the medium of transactions, because it will eliminate the possibility of enjoying the conduct of all of these in a single unit with only one financial component and one interest rate, putting us in the world of fiat currencies and (a quite impossible) "cash only" gold, leaves no mechanism for fixing the broad range of economic transactions to set quantities of gold (done through financial and trade contracts). Therefore, people will maneuver out of gold and to all alternative metals that provide contract enforcement. This would NOT put gold at $30,000 ($3,000 in current dollar purchasing power) but would put silver at $300 the PGMs at $6,000, Rhodium at $20,000 and gold at $100 (current "real" dollars). Gold may spike high on the way, but as awareness of the approach of your "legal protocol" permeates through the markets, they will move away from gold and towards alternative metals or absorb gold into forms in which it can be contracted.

In order to achieve the desired high and stable gold value there are two choices: an official monetary system that is all gold, or no official money at all. To avoid government temptations to meddle, your international law should disallow governments to have currencies at all, and should disallow government maintenance or guarantee of bank liabilities. The system you suggest will destroy itself, the gold owners of today, and the prospects for Arabians and their progeny. That they would promote this is on par with Palestinian support of Iraq, the loser's choice.

Trail Guide

(05/09/2001; 12:07:17 MDT - Msg ID: 53295)

Comment

ORO, everyone,

I was going to comment more before moving on with some of Another's recent political thoughts. But it looks like I have said enough to warm the fires (grin)!

OK,,, ORO let's talk some on this forum. (smile)

Be back later
TrailGuide

ORO

(05/09/2001; 12:53:15 MDT - Msg ID: 53296)

Buena Fe - O'Neil is right

http://www.yardeni.com/public/shtb_c.pdfIt should be no surprise that nations and states do not trade at all. People trade as individuals and as organizations, such as are corporations.

The involvement of governments in trade is largely dependent on successful capture by its partner banks of the transactional and savings volumes of the population at large. Small governments of small geographies have not managed to do so successfully and have found the least bit of inflation to cause a mass transition from contract and transaction in their currency to alternate contract denominations, be they a price index, dollars, gold, or what have you. As a result of these denominations, contracts and transactions slip outside government's tax nets and increase the deficits that these governments must finance through inflation. Once started, it is difficult to stop, and rarely does the political system remain unchanged after the monetary system hyperinflates.

The wrong portion of the proposition of the trade deficit hawks is that the US government - and thus the nation - owes the dollars to the collectors of trade surpluses. Where that had been the case through the cold war and the period just after, the current credit system is transitioning to private dollar debt of individuals and corporations and a trend towards massive shedding of liabilities of governments including "entitlement" programs, bank liability insurance, and most prominent of which is the attempt of governments to extricate themselves out of debt; particularly of external debt.

Further error is compounded upon the initial one by the supposition that the US economy is responsible for providing all of the dollars purchasing power. The dollar enjoys a substantial premium in its value arising from its historical and current use for trade settlement and denomination of contracts in the world at large. The fact that foreigners owe so many dollars, somewhat more than they are likely to collect for payment, is one of the main reasons the dollar is used today for trade and has been used for trade through the 80s and 90s. It is the performance of the dollar debtors that creates the dollar's value. These debtors include many outside the US who are paying rather higher interest rates for the dollar debts they owe than we do.

The outstanding amounts of dollars owed by debtors outside the US become a heavier burden as they attempt to pay down their debts, since during a period of net foreign dollar debt declines the independent supply of the foreign dollar market to itself falls dramatically, thus forcing the foreign dollar debtor to come to the US for his dollar revenue, from which he will extract the dollar cash flow that will pay down his debt. Because of this, Americans will be provided with lower prices for imports, and foreign dollar debtors will find their credit ratings down and their interest rates up.

The dollar trade deficit would grow so long as foreign dollar interest rates rise and import prices into the US from countries where the dollar debtors are concentrated continue to fall. The US trade deficit is more the result of a pull from abroad than a push from the US. It is a result of dollar lending to Asian entrepreneurs of 1.2 trillion dollars (bank lending alone) by 1998, 1 tillion since 1984 (including the interest accrued and not yet paid, the sum is about 1.5 trillion at the 98 peak.

The purchasing power of the dollar is largely a result of the fact that the foreign dollar debt bears an interest rate double and triple that paid by US dollar debtors. Thus a cumulative $3 trillion net US debt pays its holders less than the $1 trillion debt of emerging markets. This leaves a dollar deficit that is filled by the trade deficit.

Contrary to common theory, trade does not balance with capital flows. The dollar support mechanism is rather obvious on page 2 of the URL above (IMF trade data). The one sided portion of the global trade balance is the result of paydowns of accrued interest and principal balances by dollar debtors selling product to dollar holders (most notably the US, but also Europe and lately Japan).

On an individual basis, Americans and US corporations are indebted, but Americans are mostly indebted to themselves (many own enough financial assets to cover their debts completely or a couple of times over). They simply arbitrage tax rates through housing debt. US corporations also made large investments in inventory management and supply chain management and have reduced substantially the time it takes to get from an idea to the first sale of product, a great advantage.

If Europe continues to expand and deepen regulation (as it has of late) while the US simplifies and thins regulation, the advantage would play in the favor of US industries despite higher dollar exchange rates.

Chris Powell

(05/09/2001; 13:13:41 MDT - Msg ID: 53297)

GATA sweeps South Africa on eve of Durban conference

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/753A nationwide radio interview, and AngloGold
decides to attend.

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Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/09/2001; 13:54:36 MDT - Msg ID: 53298)

JMB @ # 53289

Sir,

I too listened to the exchange on CNBC this morning.

Although I do not nor have ever agreed with Joe K. concerning PM's I do enjoy him and "the brain", and "Harvard Boy".

Let me say this about Joe. He is not a hypocrite like most of the "heads" on CNBC. He has not vacillated on issues and has never wavered on his position concerning Gold. He looks at metals from a different perspective than do we. He looks at it from the recent past performance of metals. He only talks about what has happened to those who invested in gold and silver since circa 1981. He has a very strong case. He is preaching to a choir in a different church than the church that we attend. I have told several idiots that they should sell their silver and take their losses because they were holding it for only one reason, to break even if silver ever again reached the price at which they bought. These people bought high and that sort of mentality reveals itself on the other end, as they never sell low. The converse is also true, as there are those who buy low but would never consider selling high. (Not referring to those who hold a portion of PM's, myself included, as an insurance policy against fiat destruction.)

Now do not get the wrong impression. I do not consider Joe K. to be overly endowed with either wisdom or understanding in this area. Quite to the contrary, rather I consider him to be an honest fool. He thinks that because he is right about what has happened to those who tried to make a short-term profit in PM's that he has covered the whole subject and that there is nothing further, no other reason to have possession of PM's than that of the short-term profit motive.

His arrogance in that his position covers all circumstances and motives does a disservice only to the idiots who take what he has to offer as the absolute gospel. He does not hurt us in any way. He helps us in that he aids our cause during accumulation. Joe K. has a special calling. His calling is to be negative. He never has anything in the way of advice or criticism that does not have a negative (I told you so) slant to it. He never gives any advice as to what would be a wise move going forward. He will always talk about what happened in the recent past, i.e. gold vs. Treasuries.

What I like about "the brain", Joe K. and "Harvard Boy" is the clear disdain they have for the rest of the CNBC prostitutes. The almost hate themselves because of their association with these prostitutes because although they do not consider themselves to be prostitutes, they cannot get away from the fact that they work for the same pimps.

As for your swearing, I would classify your post as PG rather than PG-13 and certainly not the kind that would require any janitorial work. The only bad part is it does encourage those inclined to push to the point of testing the rules of the forum. What you have done is certainly not as close to the edge as my forays into the religious realm (smile). When we skirt around the fringes like this what we find is, not how rigid MK is, but rather, how gracious he is. If we put constraints upon ourselves he will not usually get too out of sorts. Problem is, when he does get out of sorts we will have, I fear, no warning, as he does not play games. The way I try to constrain myself is by trying to limit my posts that have a religious slant to Sundays.

Very respectfully,

HBM

Chris Powell

(05/09/2001; 13:54:47 MDT - Msg ID: 53299)

New questions for Fed chairman and treasury secretary

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/754Will you ask your congressmen to get
answers?

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Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/09/2001; 14:03:44 MDT - Msg ID: 53300)

Blowing up the balloon: Federal Reserve adds funds to banking system reserves

The Fed added $707 million in permanent reserves through the outright purchase of Treasury securities for the System account.

Further, the Fed also added $3 billion in temporary reserves via overnight repurchase agreements.

The market in federal funds was trading below the FOMC target, and yet they pump up the volume. Take heed. Diversify into gold because this transition shall be bigger than your paper accounts can absorb.

R Powell

(05/09/2001; 14:12:18 MDT - Msg ID: 53301)

Two fer day

We missed a hat trick as the lease rates were down just a hair. However, POG was up more than a hair, +4.9 on the June contract and the XAU was also up many hairs, 3.68 points according to CNBC's 4:00 report.
Both gold and mining stocks did receive notice on the people's stock market television channel, at least during the hour I've been watching. A Greg Welden of Welden Money Moniter stated that he believes this a breakout move that may continue toward $300/ounce. Mining stocks, according to G-E reports, have been trading in very unusually heavy volume. Interesting, the only negative outlook at the neighboring castle, is from Don_L who sees this as a blow off top with POG looking to retreat soon. I hope he's wrong!
With the XAU and lease rates as confirmation, IMHO this just might be the end of a long, long gold/silver bear.
Wouldn't that be fun!!
Rich

ausome

(05/09/2001; 14:12:22 MDT - Msg ID: 53302)

POG sliding in Asia

POG down 40 cents minutes after opening. Don't get too excited about the NY rise.

Old Yeller

(05/09/2001; 14:26:45 MDT - Msg ID: 53303)

The showdown continues...

http://www.prudentbear.com/boards/user/non-frames/message.asp?forumid=4&messageid=45837&threadid=45818
We at the forum all know this is the unspoken issue of the ECB stance.I wonder if this issue will become more prominent after May 15.

ORO

(05/09/2001; 15:01:02 MDT - Msg ID: 53304)

Mr Gresham - Who's mistake

My opinion, not supported by anecdotal or statistical evidence directly available from the horse's mouth, is that the ECB member central banks had been egged on by particular EU banks, English and US banks to lend gold at an artificially low set of interest rates that are competitive with dollar rates when viewed from the historical book values of gold on CB books, which was anywhere from $35 to SDR 35 ($42-48), thus at $340 gold, a 1% rate looked like 7%-10% (at $48, and $35 respectively), and at $260 it was 5.4% to 7.5%. The moment ECB member banks moved to mark-to-market regimes, the book value changed. They had to do just that because the Maastricht treaty prerequisites on government deficits and debt were not met without that marginal assistance from booking the profits from marking gold from the historical official price to the actual market price.

The error was clear to those in the private sector (and probably in US officialdom too), and they proceeded to use this as (1) a cheap source of funds, (2) a gold price suppression pool like the infamous old London Gold Pool, (3) a lender of last resort credit facility providing last ditch (and moving progressively closer first ditch), (4) forcing a below market interest rate on gold that caused the classic gold credit expansion boom and with it the classic inflation of gold and the rise of prices denominated in gold. This artificially low gold value (purchasing power) induced people to hoard gold and collect gold denominated contracts and indirect gold ownership, and cash them in (bad money driving out the good when they trade at par). That has forced the banking system and the ECB members to provide upwards of 1000 tonnes a year from reserves in order to keep the supply of physical gold to the markets and avoid (a) illiquidity of the paper markets because of illiquidity of the physical market, (b) breaking of par between the paper gold liabilities in the market and gold, (c) the requisite "bank run" that occurs under threat of a break of par.

The classic credit expansion boom in gold banking will result in a classic credit contraction of the system, complete with empty vaults, multiple lawsuits, and bankrupt financial and industrial institutions, as well as scandal in government and some central bankers giving politicos tours of the empty vaults, or showing them piles of someone else's bullion.

Was it a mistake? By some, surely. FOA claims that it was at least in part intentional, which it very well may be.

CoBra(too)

(05/09/2001; 15:37:08 MDT - Msg ID: 53305)

The usual curbs on excess of 2 $ Limit Moves on POG ...

... seem at least to be waived today and survived the day. Is it the Joe Gutnik's 18 ton shorts in his Centaur hedge book, the Durban GATA Conference or just the fact that the TPTB are losing control of an uncontrolable (unprintable! gee!) demand of physical metal (Au-metal!), which is not in abundance for paper (fiat)- disregarding the annual shortfall- anyway ...
And I personally don't care, when a 4-5 $ spike in POG triples the volume in mining stocks and sends them 10 to 20% north in a day - reminding me of the notion of a a DJII north of 100.000 in order to stay even.

Anyway, this little move in POG heralds the "leverage" to be expected of a big move - as long as your Au-assets are either above ground or unencumbered (- here's a question mark as to availability ... after default of the system as such, or other, though equal distressing 'curbs' in production of reality-?) ... and so what? FOA would say, or better vis a vis what value - true!

Got me? Got you! ... Got gold?
cb2

ORO

(05/09/2001; 15:51:02 MDT - Msg ID: 53306)

Tree in the Forest - 53252 - worth alot till you try selling it

Ashanti's hedge book is part of a crowded trade, just like tech and internet stocks were in early 2000. As they indicate, their book could not be liquidated or fully counter-hedged in the event of a discontinuous and illiquid market. It is characteristic of a crowded trade that realizing the profits accrued to date is impossible for all large players.

It is the reason for large astute players easing in and out of the markets gradually, or if they missed the opportunity to exit, adding to a "bad" position they can not exit if they can thus affect the market in their favor. Furthermore, the astute willingly shed some of the profits to hedge against a step wise change in the market against them.

ausome

(05/09/2001; 15:57:09 MDT - Msg ID: 53307)

Chase M were the big losers from Centaur's demise

Chase were Centaur's biggest creditor because of their forward selling regime. Chase has lost about 120 million on Centaur's hedge book. They apparently allowed them to continue trading when they knew Centaur was insolvent. In the end Centaur was selling forward well below the cost of production.

Carl H

(05/09/2001; 16:03:52 MDT - Msg ID: 53308)

Bush appointee to Treasury

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010509/n092970.htmlSounds like another one from inside the Cabal. Thoughts anyone?

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/09/2001; 16:05:10 MDT - Msg ID: 53309)

Canuck @ 53272 - Envisioning the world in another decade

Sir Canuck

What fine pouring out of the soul! Your post was, IMO, of the best type: - Thought provoking and penetrating. May I impose by using a few of your thoughts for launching pads?

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Canuck � "�envisioning the world in another decade�boomers into retirement�retirement and health care costs will be enormous�fewer energy resources�aging population�the end�a debt so massive that cascading cross-defaults will swallow everything�

Comments � Envisioning indeed! The hardest thing for economic theorists (I consider myself to be one) is to be able to superimpose microeconomic experience over and into macroeconomic projections. Let me explain. The highly technical economists involved in macroeconomics give us their conclusions that they derive from data that is not readily accessible to me. If I could access the data I would not be able to properly read it or put it into some sort of meaningful format. I leave that to the macroeconomists. I do not ignore their data nor their conclusions but I have a built-in distrust simply because I cannot verify the integrity of their data.

My way works for me. I observe real life happenings on the microeconomic level and superimpose my observations over and into the macroeconomic level. As example, in 1974 my father turned 55 and was given an offer he couldn't refuse: -- retire now and get full pension benefits � the company will also pay you an amount equal to what you would receive in social security if you were 62 and when you turn 62 social security will take over. In addition your health and life insurance (the best) will continue until you are 65, at which time Medicare will take over; however the company will continue to pay the supplemental premiums to cover that which Medicare does not pay. Sixteen years later, my father and mother are 71 and look to live quite a good while longer (not without the exorbitant medical expenditures that they have been guaranteed). Next year my brother will be 55 years of age and has similar options to that of my father. The big difference is that my brother along with myself (also 55 in the year 2002, we are not twins) are baby boomers. Let us call our parents the first wave and the generation of baby boomers the 2nd wave. One important item, which I'll bet you a fiat to a donut, is that the macroeconomic demographers have not considered the fact that many of these baby boomers in unison with many of their parents will not be paying in FICA and Medicare for as much as ten years prior to "normal retirement" age. Additionally, my guess is that, they will cease to be contributing to the GNP as much as 10 years earlier than the demographers calculate. What am I saying? These jobs are not being replaced. They are being eliminated by either technology or exportation. They are replaced with hamburger frying jobs at McDonald's etc., and the number of grandchildren available to fry these hamburgers for their parents and grandparents is becoming disproportionately smaller as the process unfolds.

My point is this. Even if Greenspan and Co. can somehow magically hold things together for a few years, the so-called surpluses in the so-called trust funds is going to disappear much more quickly than the demographers are telling us. When these trust fund surpluses reverse the Federal Deficits will accelerate and Harry Figgie will be vindicated. The FOMC will have to double its staff, Treasury bond rates will go through the clouds and hyperinflation will have arrived, further changes in government bookkeeping to the contrary.

Not to mislead, I would say that I expect a collapse of the USD long before this scenario unfolds. Alan Greenspan will probably be long gone. He will either be dead or will have become a cosmopolitan like Charles Volker and Panda. I fully expect for gold to be vindicated within the next year or two (three at the most); but if I am wrong and the USD does hold up until 2005 the baby boomers will have followed through in like manner as their parents and will have destroyed the dollar by ceasing to produce to soon while accelerating and continuing consumption too quickly and too long. There is no hope for the USD. The Euro has only to wait in the wings. We, the boomers, will destroy our own economy and currency without any help from the Europeans and they know it. ORO, Please do not try to tell me that the USD, as the world knows it, has a chance of survival.

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Canuck � "�the inevitable�paper will have no value�tangible, hard, physical assets�in good times and bad�represent wealth

Comments � Sir Canuck, in so few words you have perfectly described the end result of the above "baby boomer" scenario and what one must do to prepare for this inevitability.

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Canuck � "�This will happen slowly�

Comments � Sir, you are correct, for it has been happening slowly since at least 1911, but the end is very near and when "thunder is heard in the night", the "slow happening", will blast off the launching pad. When one is asleep and is awakened by the thunder he has already missed the first warning from the lightening. The "perfect storm" is soon to follow. If the Storm shelter has not been built prior to the appearance of the lightening, it will be too late to try to build, but Joe Kernen would not know of this possibility.

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Canuck �"�I have begun�to wean myself from fiat�this may take years�accumulate

Comments � Yes, it may take years. This is the very excuse that some use for not accumulating, that it may take years. You are among the few fools to whom Joe Kernen has been referring. Anything you do prior to the arrival of the storm will be better than buying treasury bills as per Joe Kernen's recommendation.

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Canuck �"�If governments self-destruct I will not be reliant on them in any way, shape or form.

Comments � If governments do not self-destruct, hopefully, you and I will not be reliant on them in any way, shape or form, save for defense from invading armies. Oh how I hate subsidies. I may have to give up fast food, na!

In summation gold will be vindicated long before 2012, the so-called year of the baby boomer.

Very respectfully,

HBM

ORO

(05/09/2001; 16:41:46 MDT - Msg ID: 53310)

HBM - dollar as we know it

Most definitely, the dollar will not survive as we know it. There will indeed be an inflationary collapse as the trade settlement system is saved but our monetary savings lose most of their value just like an internet stock once the shorts have covered and the stock options grants vest (the last of demand disappears just as large fresh supply comes to market - the classic crowded trade).

HBM, the dynamic for the "strong" dollar is reversing, however, there is still quite a hole in the dollar supply to the market, which is quickly being filled. The fill time remaining is no more than 2 years, and likely only one. We should start seeing the moves as the markets start discounting the "event" - when they realize it is coming.

The Fed should give one more % and start pulling rates up upon the first losses in the dollar (a.k.a. "too late").

My main beef with the Euro fiat + limited gold trade is that it is presented as being a superior international trading structure when nothing but political support stands behind it, and the whole of known monetary economics stands against it. At least the dollar is leveraged to gold - recognizing an anchor, what is the Euro system going to do without any anchor at all? Use the hobbled "cash only" gold exchange rate to Euro as a motivator by "shaming" the Euro as its exchange rate drops? Did it ever shame Nixon and Carter to see the dollar go up to over $100 and then to $800+? Why would anyone think the ECB and the EU would be any less flagrant in disregard of the public savings (such as they are - mostly as a result of the prior inflation)?

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/09/2001; 16:49:22 MDT - Msg ID: 53311)

First Fisher, now Roseboro?

Almost looks as if they are battening down the hatches at the Treasury, using some salty ol' dogs with some serious sea legs under them.

Horatio

(05/09/2001; 17:02:35 MDT - Msg ID: 53312)

Anglo

Anglo splits on a big up day,did they know something we didn.t know.Management don't split stocks if they think thier going down or if the stock is in a weak position.
You always split into strength.

Mr Gresham

(05/09/2001; 17:23:35 MDT - Msg ID: 53313)

Excitement

http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-bin/bbs.pl?read=143984A lot of excitement among da Bears today!

Oro -- great to see you here today. I'll have to read yours over several times; my brain fuzzes out as soon as I read those SDR and old $42 book prices -- and starts trying to convert everything to current terms. Looks like you've named just about everything, though...

We really are an excitable bunch, eh? The sense of anticipation is carried in more places than here, of course. Based upon the idea: "They've had to expend so much manipulation power to grind POG down lower, but as the base firms, a smaller and smaller spike will start a short squeeze." The anticipation is that we may learn sooner rather than later how that "small spike" theory plays out in reality.

Y'know, the day it all pops will be so ordinary in every other way. Everyone else will walk around in their normal activities. There will just be the odd few of us walking around as in a parallel world, not unlike the cat with some canary feathers stuck on its whiskers, but no one around us will know, care, or understand what's percolating through our tired old brains.

The reason is that we've been living in a parallel dimension these past years, "keeping the real world books" for everyone else, and waiting for the games distorting them to revert back toward sustainable economic reality. Not that we welcome the pain, but it's the unreality and lack of principle that has already booked a lot of hurt for those around us.

The news will be bad; so my advice is, just be sure you're not seen as the first bearer of that bad news to many who are close to you. You may be associated with it forever, in their minds. In a way, this Internet anonymity is both the provoker of further discovery than we ever thought possible, and our protector from blathering it all over our family, friends, and neighbors. (My advice to myself:)Let it out here, and maintain a judicious reserve amongst those who will learn it soon enough by firsthand experience.

Trail Guide

(05/09/2001; 18:04:25 MDT - Msg ID: 53314)

Comment

Hello ALL,

ORO made some interesting comments and I want to take issue with a few of them. I'll start with his first post. (also, a big welcome back to you sir!)

In your post ORO (5/9/01; 11:40:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 53294) FOA - NO LAW,,,,,,,,,,,

you write:

--------My take on Europe and the Euro are that they are desperate attempts to save European governments from competition among each other and the rest of the world, and of their trying to maintain the political hegemony of the small bureaucratic and political elite within Europe.------

No ORO, that view does not hold water. Europe, along with imput from many other non dollar nation states, has been working on currency union from the most early days of the "European Economic Unit (EEU). That one thrust alone dates back into the early 70s and even before that they have tried to match their economies by presenting united exchange rate mechanisms.

If their current objective is the object of a desperate attempt, you will have a hard time defining desperate over such a long period. My take and that of quite a few Europeans is that their union has been well planned yet very complicated to establish. Indeed, most any political analysis would describe their drive as remarkable given the enormous roadblocks the US / IMF / dollar faction has
thrown at them. Truly, if "political hegemony of their elite" was all they were after, they would have scrapped all dollar support at the Jamaica Accords conference. They could have easily matched the economic deterioration that action would have caused, against the cost of no longer supporting
the dollar. These countries inflated their own internal currency systems in order to maintain a world dollar standard. This alone flies in the face of hegemony on their part, both then and now.

You write:

--------The purpose of the Euro is to trap capital and trade within a political block controlled by this elite ----------- It has only to do with political power attempting a last ditch effort of governments of Europe against the forces of globalization and economic and technological progress.--------It has nothing to do with any of the following: political subservience to the US, the
cost of using the dollar for international trade, the dollar's wobbly past or future, trade efficiencies, free trade or liberty of any sort.---------

That's a pretty broad statement. Sounds like the history of the world from beginning to end. (smile) Yet, I can find nothing in European culture, ideals, nationalism or society in general that I do not find here in the US. Usually the motivation is functioning under a different name, though the effect is the same. Americans have in the past thrust their protocols upon the Old World culture. In this light, some of us think this shouldn't effects a Euro policy response. Hello? Good perception comes with understanding and loose observations are useless when seen using tunnel vision.

Consider:

------We Americans trap world capital through dollar hegemony and call it "Americans for free trade" ------- We shutter at the thought of Euros in our pocket, as a second currency, and would impose any amount of foreign exchange controls to limit such. But we are very open to globalization at any time. ---- Trade efficiencies are great as long as they favor our lifestyle above other nations.
----- Further, our liberty is a good thing, but the liberty of others is unimportant if it interferes with our national interest. --------

Still, if the Europeans are trying to attain our same position in international affairs, it's seen as their elite power block holding on? No, that doesn't clean the laundry either.

Perhaps the difference of perception is seen on our last Trail Walk; --- As such the euro is important in that it challenges our (dollar) hegemony-----. This alone, ORO, is enough for us to structure for the outcome. Whether one can see the political motivations correctly or not, their Euro
will re-balance the world of currencies and have an outsized effect on the US.

You write,,,,,,,,,,

--------The legal provisions you talk of will not destroy or prevent a future gold banking system that might compete with the fiat insanity. It will destroy the countries that sign on to it, which are likely not to include the US and most of Asia unless taken over politically by EU influences (which
are not that strong there). -------------

Sir,
First of all, you should stay within the context of my discussion with Econoclast. We were presenting positions, not launching ICBMs. The position I presented is valid in limited circumstances that would include a fallen dollar. This has been discussed by others "overthere", among other criteria. You speak of fiat insanity? I point out to you and ET and Journeyman that hundreds of millions of us have been living with such a currency for some time. Insanity is a bit
cheap of a description when the world has endured wars and multitude human infliction for thousands of years. If this whole transition fails, we will still live out our lives with fiat, like it or not.

When you state the following:

-------The attachment of collateral to gold is innate in the action of trading gold. Without that, there is no trade in gold possible at all. All trade involves the creation of a debt, at least temporarily. The debt may be secured by the items traded, but transactions must involve a debt. Transactions also must involve a contract. Ownership of anything is title, either assumed through possession, or
documented. A system that does not allow collateral backing a contract denominated in gold is a system that does not allow gold to trade, and endangers title to gold not in possession. Doubtless, the purpose of such law would be to allow governments to confiscate gold held in custody (not in
possession) if the attempts to prevent monetary use of gold fail.-----------

You are right, it is innate to this current fraud of a dollar gold market. I know you are thinking in terms of the current dollar gold market function because the rest of this thrust sounds like it is right out of our current bullion bankers notes. Both past and present and is completely based upon a continuation of the same. We have no intention of traveling that road again.

Further you write:

------It is another attempt by EU governments to block the exits from a future Europe they imagine they can control. If implemented successfully, it will be Europe that will be destroyed by the absence of an efficient credit system keyed to effective gold denomination of debt. --------

The world has traveled this road before and failed to control it's controllers. Gold as official money is dead at the starting blocks, my friend. Send your best salesman around the world to sell that position for a living. Most certainally he will die of old age or lack of commissions before anyone will deal with him. If gold debt is what you strive for, then carry your torch and do your best. Just
don't ask the common man to suffer wealth loss again while we try to do it one more time.

Further by your hand:

---It would mean that the only interest rate available would be the innately incorrect one set by monetary authorities.------

Where is this at odds with a functioning fiat Euro that's controlled by the ECB? I will tell you, it is set with one/half an eye on the Euro price of FreeGold. Far different than the current world rate being played off a failing currencies economy and set by a paper gold market.

ORO,
All of the rest of your argument is an endorsement for gold debt in our constant fiat world. It has failed before and will fail again if allowed to be mingled into a political arena. The world's first gold coin was never money and yet was a perfect trade for another good. No debt was involved then at the time of trade and should not be now. The hard money school that has lead us down the gold / money path never stopped to consider that banking and gold do not and cannot coexist without corruption. We have learned from them. We know now what not to do!

Explain your position in point by point fashion and it will not amount to a "sellable conclusion". That's because the Old World culture chooses not to close a gold window again. We will, indeed, see how this all plays out as "time will prove all things". I will own physical gold and scoff at your bankers pleas for "one more try".

As always, thank you very much for your impute and opinion. (smile)
TrailGuide

R Powell

(05/09/2001; 18:44:49 MDT - Msg ID: 53315)

Mr. Gresham (53313)

Concerning excitement Agree, entirely. I often print out info for the wife and kids and attempt to get them to read. I've had some success, but limited.
You wrote, "Let it out here, and maintain a judicious reserve amongst those who will learn it soon enough by firsthand experience." I sometimes drop hints in conversation but very, very few notice anything. Outright conversation usually hits a brick wall. My old dad used to say, "Don't give advice. Wise men don't need it and fools will not heed it." Dad used to say that but I believe the author was Ben Franklin.
May I comment on your quote? Everyone will experience firsthand what is coming but, I'll quess, damn few will understand it until the media explain it to them. Lord only knows what that explanation will be?? Mostly blame, I'll bet, on someone, somewhere, for something??
Go Gold, Go Silver, Go Lease Rates, Go XAU, Go GATA!!
Rich

Leigh

(05/09/2001; 19:20:38 MDT - Msg ID: 53316)

R Powell, Mr Gresham

I think people can't imagine what is coming because we here in the States don't have REALLY BAD things happen to us very often! For most of our lives, everything has gone along smoothly, and we think it always will. Plus, think back on predictions that never came true...Y2K, the earthquake near the Mississippi River (circa 1990), hurricanes that turned out to be short rain showers, and so on. People feel dumb when they prepare for the worst and then get fooled. So they've hardened their hearts to doomsayers (like us).

I wonder how people who have really suffered all kinds of calamities would react to our doomsaying. Would they be more likely to believe it? You know, many people who went through the Depression always seemed to fear that more bad times were right around the corner. Who else here remembers their grandma saving string and aluminum foil?

There seem to be people in this world who can learn only through experience. We bears just have more vivid imaginations!

USAGOLD

(05/09/2001; 19:31:33 MDT - Msg ID: 53317)

Hi Leigh, your observation:

"There seem to be people in this world who can learn only through experience."

Good ole' Ben Franklin came up in conversation tonight. He echoes your excellent thought with this:

"Experience keeps a dear school yet a fool will learn in no other."

Isn't that what this Forum is all about? I have learned over many years of counselling people from all walks of life that the cost of preparation does not have to be the better part of one's assets, nor does it have to be the commitment of a lifetime, but the peace of mind which attends such preparation puts a smile on the face, confidence in the step and a quiet, settled disposition.

Thanks for being here, Leigh. My best to you and your family.

Black Blade

(05/09/2001; 20:54:59 MDT - Msg ID: 53318)

Natural Gas Prices Surge, Fueling Crisis

http://www.latimes.com/business/reports/power/lat_natgas010509.htm
Snippit:

Most power plants are fueled by natural gas, which was once cheap and abundant. High natural gas prices worry the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, which fears that the big markups could doom its plan to rein in California's electricity costs this summer since generators will still be able to pass on fuel costs.

Black Blade: Virtually all new power is NG-fired. So what is happening across the US including dark hot California? They are building NG-fired power plants. I guess - "If they build it, NG will come." No one ever accused the people and the politicians they elect of being rocket scientists. The ripples of the collapsing California economy will emanate outward to swallow up the US economy with a series of rolling shockwaves. A little gold insurance is in order.

Galearis

(05/09/2001; 21:06:48 MDT - Msg ID: 53319)

On silver, the newest Ted Butler article.....

http://www.gloomdoom.com/05-08-01.html....speaks for itself

>>>>>snippet>>>>

To me, the rigging of the silver market for the past 50 years (particularly the past 15 years) is both bad news and good news. The good news is that such an epic distortion of the basic supply and demand of a major world commodity has created the opportunity of a lifetime. As you are aware, I've gone on record as predicting silver could hit $50 or $100 per ounce over the medium term. But I've done that only because an analyst is expected to spit out a number to summarize his research. In reality, on a long-term basis, those price projections do not reflect just how bullish I am. Rather than throw out an even higher number, and risk undermining my research as being unrealistic, let me talk about the long term in a manner other than price. Let's review the historical circumstance that dates back 5000 years.

With silver the world has had a vital, desired, and universally recognized commodity, whose total cumulative production was in the tens of billions of ounces. Suddenly, about 100 years ago, this commodity became vital to all sorts of indispensable industrial applications. We started to consume and use up silver. Published statistics indicate we have consumed over 90% of the total that the world has produced. The world has chewed up 5000 years of accumulated inventory in the past 50 years. Please understand and envision that 50 centuries' worth of accumulated production is gone forever. This is the most bullish factor that any world commodity ever experienced.

In 1942 the US government had almost six billion ounces of silver in its inventory. That silver is used up. The US mint must buy silver this year. Those billions of ounces went to industrial users and into coinage. Subsequently, much of the coinage has been melted down for industrial use. The fact that such big hoards of silver have disappeared means we are fast approaching a time when no more silver is available to industry at today's low prices. If the silver is no longer there to get because the strong demand has used it all up, the price must rise to ration the supply and alter the voracious demand. The more you analyze silver, the tighter the supply situation looks. It's bullish beyond our ability to grasp the total picture of this booming demand and thinning supply. On top of all this vanishing silver sits the biggest short sale of any commodity ever in relationship to its supply. Silver is literally a time bomb waiting to go off.

>>>>>>unsnippet>>>>>>

I am a believer and it WILL happen.......if there is an economy left to drive demand. If not, then all the gold and all the silver, and all the increasingly valueless currencies will be but a memory of wealth.

G.

megatron

(05/09/2001; 22:06:44 MDT - Msg ID: 53320)

Galearis

But it's not a monetary metal! :}

Black Blade

(05/09/2001; 22:18:53 MDT - Msg ID: 53321)

Bird Lovers Squawk at Wind-Energy Scheme

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010509/od/birds_dc_1.html
Snippit:

AMSTERDAM, Netherlands (Reuters) - Dutch bird lovers want the government to axe plans to build 200 wind turbines along a northern dam which they say will endanger the lives of thousands of coastal and migratory birds.

Black Blade: Introduction offer for the "Bird-O-Matic!" It slices, it dices, and it blends birds with one twirl of the blades! Wind power for the discerning Dutchman in the country that brought the World the comfort of wooden shoes and the miracle of Tulip Bulb investing. Yes, even in the US there's opposition to wind power because of the danger to the birds. It seems that birds, and notably birds of prey such as the California Condor have this knack for sailing into the blades of these wind blenders in such a way as the put any self-respecting frog to shame - in reference to the old frog in a blender joke. PETA (People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals - not People Eating Tasty Animals) has been a long time opponent. Wind power, like many of these birds, "fall short" of solving the energy crisis.

Chris Powell

(05/09/2001; 22:26:19 MDT - Msg ID: 53322)

Dow Jones story about GATA's Durban conference

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/755It's building....

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Chris Powell

(05/09/2001; 22:27:33 MDT - Msg ID: 53323)

CBS MarketWatch story cites Durban conference

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/756To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Black Blade

(05/09/2001; 22:32:44 MDT - Msg ID: 53324)

California Blackout Season Begins

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20010509/us/power_woes_31.html
Snippit:

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) - California's newest season - blackout season - is here, and it arrived earlier than expected. State officials had anticipated a crunch in June, when air conditioners are cranked up for summer weather. But already, California has been hit with back-to-back blackouts on Monday and Tuesday, and the operators of the state's power grid barely scraped together enough energy to avoid blackouts Wednesday.

Black Blade: It's official, now it is a "Season" as if it is typical business as usual. Ya just gotta love the "spin" these days. Good is Bad, Bad is Good. Huh? Air Conditioners are expected to account for as much as 20% of energy use this summer. California just got a little taste the last couple of days. Rates are going up, more blackouts are coming, and there's no more energy to spare. The California economy is about to be rocked with much higher costs and lost productivity. So turn out the �er, Oh well the party's over.

Black Blade

(05/09/2001; 22:42:59 MDT - Msg ID: 53325)

Blackouts could cost Calif. almost $22 bln - study

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010509/n09543335.html
Snippit:

SACRAMENTO, Calif., May 9 (Reuters) - California's long, dark summer of blackouts could cost its economy almost $22 billion in lost productivity and chop as many as 135,000 jobs in the state, an industry association study released Wednesday shows. ``The longer this continues, the greater our risk of a job-killing recession gripping California.''

Black Blade: It is a foregone conclusion. Some should consider a gold lifeboat, while others should consider a gold Ark! This whole energy crisis and the link to gold is not unprecedented.

Rockgrabber

(05/09/2001; 22:59:40 MDT - Msg ID: 53326)

My Trail Guide

(Hand Raised) Sir, I have been out gardening, and thinking about your thoughts, thanks. Thanks for putting such a complicated study into such easy clear thoughts. (going back in my spot on the trail)

Black Blade

(05/09/2001; 23:06:42 MDT - Msg ID: 53327)

It's bad, and it'll get worse

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2001/05/09/MN197841.DTL
TROUBLE AHEAD: Extra power for summer will fall well short of Gov. Davis' promise

Snippit:

California will get only one-third of the new power that Gov. Gray Davis promised to deliver by July 1, virtually ensuring a brutal summer of blackouts for the energy-strapped state. In fact, experts said, there are so many obstacles that the governor's plan was unrealistic to begin with.

Black Blade: What?! A politician that did not keep a promise! Shame. Does anybody really find this so difficult to believe? This article lays out a gloomy forecast. I'm not as optimistic.

justamereBear

(05/10/2001; 00:53:11 MDT - Msg ID: 53328)

Black Blade 53321 Holland

Black Blade
Have you been there and seen that project? 50 years to pump out that Zee. These guys don't think small. A most amazing project. 3 or 4 years ago I spent a very happy week puttering around that project. They are making astounding progress. Well worth the trip, IMHO. But then, I love all of Holland, except Amsterdam.I wonder if the old windmills sliced and diced birds too?

j'Bear

View Yesterday's Discussion.

Canuck

(05/10/2001; 04:39:51 MDT - Msg ID: 53329)

Bombshell?

From the recent GATA messages:

"There's going to be some very painful facts
disclosed," said Murphy. "It's going to be bigger than
Watergate."

-END-

As I, are you getting the impression that a bombshell is going to be announced today?

Thanks to HBM and Mr. Gresham.

Canuck.

ausome

(05/10/2001; 05:28:37 MDT - Msg ID: 53330)

POG positive again

Up 5cents after being down all day in Asia. Go GATA Go Gold.

Cavan Man

(05/10/2001; 06:04:50 MDT - Msg ID: 53331)

Dear Sir FOA

Truly, Sophia; ef-hah-ree-stow.

Knallgold

(05/10/2001; 06:44:56 MDT - Msg ID: 53332)

Strange theory by Derb

http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=GOLD&read=3970What do you mean?

The Invisible Hand

(05/10/2001; 07:14:38 MDT - Msg ID: 53333)

http://cnnfn.cnn.com/2001/05/10/europe/rates/

ECB surprises with rate cutEuro zone central bank shocks markets with rate cut to counter slowdown
May 10, 2001: 8:43 a.m. ET
LONDON (CNN) - The European Central Bank shocked the markets with a quarter-point interest rate cut on Thursday to counter a slowing in euro zone growth.The ECB lowered the interest rate to 4.5 percent, its first move in two years, from 4.75 percent. Only three economists out of 50 polled by Reuters expected a rate cut.
�

The Invisible Hand

(05/10/2001; 07:18:50 MDT - Msg ID: 53334)

Oops URL - ECB surprises with rate cut

http://cnnfn.cnn.com/2001/05/10/europe/rates/Easier reference

The Invisible Hand

(05/10/2001; 07:29:00 MDT - Msg ID: 53335)

Eurozone rate cut surprise

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1323000/1323307.stm�
The news gave an immediate boost to the European single currency, the euro, against the dollar, and triggered a surge in share prices in Frankfurt and Paris.
�

The Invisible Hand: I thought that when the reward of an asset diminished, its price decreased also. Or do I have to understand that the rate cut will give a boost to the European economy and thus (how?) strengthen the euro. Is economics no science? Or can anything derive from anything?

Buena Fe

(05/10/2001; 07:34:09 MDT - Msg ID: 53336)

rate cut ...........ecb folds to presure

I guess the ECB didn't want to start a war yet.

The Invisible Hand

(05/10/2001; 07:44:36 MDT - Msg ID: 53337)

Rationality restored

http://www.mrci.com/qpday.aspeuro (futures) not up, but down
88.14 -0.28 5/10/2001 @ 6:29 Pacific Time

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/10/2001; 07:54:31 MDT - Msg ID: 53338)

Buena Fe @ # 53336

The yield curve in Euroland has been negative (inverted) and the results are taking effect over there. Reality is setting in just as it has for Greenspan over here. No doubt there has been some arm twisting; however I am convinced that the ECB move is to soften the landing over there. This is a long and slowly moving process between the USD and the Euro, that is, until some unknown event triggers open economic warfare. Survival of the fittest is what is and has been going on for quite a long while. (6,000 years)

Very respectfully,

HBM

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/10/2001; 08:04:12 MDT - Msg ID: 53339)

The Invisible Hand @ # 53335 - Rate cut surprise

What surprised me was that the rate cut did not occur before now. They have similar problems as do we, though not so pronounced as the Euro is not in maturity nor is it a currency of reserve status, yet.

I truly believe that they have been so worried about inflation that they were willing to force economic cooling and now the fear is more towards pronounced recession which in the end will always weigh concern about inflation. A mirror image of the US experience only just a lag behind, much like our national economy and politics, which lag behind the goings on in California.

Convergence is upon us in short order.

Very respectfully,

HBM

Chris Powell

(05/10/2001; 08:31:07 MDT - Msg ID: 53340)

Murphy address to GATA Africa Gold Summit in Durban

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/757Here's the complete text.

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/757

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

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Camel

(05/10/2001; 08:37:49 MDT - Msg ID: 53341)

Injection rates/interest rates

Hey Black Blade. How about giving us some updates on gas injection rates.

Remember that the Fed is expected to lower U.S. interest rates next week. If that occurs then Euro rates will still be higher than U.S. rates which will still follow the game plan of directing capitol to the Euro.

Trail Guide- I hope you won't let Oro's tirades deprive us of ANOTHERS thoughts.While he raise's an interesting topic, as we used to say in the 60's he tends to go on a "head trip", that is a labyrinth of words that have little connection to reality. You will only wear your self out trying to respond

justamereBear

(05/10/2001; 10:19:43 MDT - Msg ID: 53342)

Camel

When all is said and done, and history is finally written, I am sure that we are all going to be wrong to a greater or lesser extent. In the case of Oro and Trail Guide, I would dearly love to have the time available to enter the debate, because the subject is interesting and important, and I have some disagreements with both, in this case, slightly moreso trail guide than Oro.

You say that Oro raises an interesting point. I submit that it takes a certain amount of intelligence to raise an interesting point. One may like or dislike yours or mine or Oros way of presenting an arguement. However, I would hardly characterize Oros work as a tirade.

j'Bear

ORO

(05/10/2001; 10:27:05 MDT - Msg ID: 53343)

Justamerebear and Camel - fawn on your detractors and denounce your supporters

Let me commend Camel for noticing that there was a tirade, and berate Mr Bear for denying it.

Justamerebear, perhaps you could spend a moment on points I made that are due for criticism, I would appreciate that.

Thanks.

Galearis

(05/10/2001; 10:46:08 MDT - Msg ID: 53344)

@ megatron, your #53320

Monetary silver..."But it's not a monetary metal".

Yes, T.B. never came out anywhere in this article and specifically said that it IS, but he did say that historically that it WAS...through 5,000 years of use. And, as you know, the commodity uses of the pm have far outstripped its usefulness as a money metal, but a 5000 year history of multiple uses drives still the perception that it IS a monetary metal. The thrust of this particular piece delt with basic commodity supply deficits and the repercussions down the road. It is still involved in coinage - which reinforces the concept - and is, like gold, used in jewellry and DOES on the metal market mirror gold in its ups and downs. It also shares a public perception that is similar to that of golds.

Perhaps it is the last point that is so easy to make. If one looks in on the Kitco graphs for both metals for the past couple of days, it can be seen very clearly. If the speculators were buying silver based on its commodity factor, then it would not reveal this connection - and would follow copper, for example, more closely. That it does not do this would seem to indicate that speculators are speculating on silver based on the same value perceptions that they hold for gold. That TOO will drive the market - and seems to be doing just that right now. Consider, please, by asking yourself a question: is the spike due to Kodak suddenly becoming worried about film production and buying on the spot market? Do you think these buyers are aware of Ted Butler? Do you think they are aware of the dangerous dynamics of a derivative driven metals market? These people are speculating on a paper market that they consider real, for the same reason as they speculate on a paper gold market. Ignore for the moment the physical component and focus on their goal to buy paper for a paper profit; that they do this is still driven on the perception of a percieved value for these trades based on the allure of precious metal. They are obviously unaware of the supply deficits in the metal or it would already be "SILVER TO DA MOON".

It really IS as simple as that.

Public perception drives markets. That the DOW does NOT mirror a present economic crisis is (and continues to be) a wonder to us all. Human beings are extraordinary in their capacity for denial and following their habit based routines instead of using a more clinical approach that culminates in doing some research. It would seem to be a mob psychology factor that is operant here: like a mob, the public I.Q. is some function of an inverse relationship to the numbers of individuals composing the masses. That is why the majority applaud interest rate cuts because of the band-aid, short term profits that it gives them. In short most would seem to be quite disconnected from reality and operate in a world that would seem to be much simpler than the reality. This too drives perception - often to the detriment of us all. The contrarian philosophy can be applied to almost every facet of human behavior, from politics and economics to child rearing. Even Karl Marx recognized it.... and it is fundamentally the reason that he held that free enterprise will ultimately destroy itself by undermining the support structures that maintain it. We will all be exposed fully to this for the next fifteen years, and you can also be assured that the truth will not set anyone free. Truth, as many of the moralists on this forum know, is usually the first thing to go.

Silver, get ya some (smile)

I'm off to Toronto again. But at least it isn't raining. Have a nice day on the forum.

Best regards,

G.

PH in LA

(05/10/2001; 10:49:57 MDT - Msg ID: 53345)

Just a mere interjection into the tirade.

FOA:

I'd like to add an echo to Camel's post (msg#: 53341).

The thing about ORO's writings (which makes one wonder if he is not somehow related to Kitco's Mozel) is that he already has his agenda. Much as his learned and often informative comments try to camoflage it, he is rarely looking for objective truth or principle. Rather, he is trying to prove the viablility of his thesis, much as we all love him (smile, smile). You put your finger right on his weakest link when you say, "Gold as official money is dead at the starting blocks." Unfortunately, this is ORO's one agenda. So, of course, he is perfectly willing to loosen his ICBMs to defend it.

For my part, your proposed solution just resonates right. In the present fiat system, there is really no refuge. The lords and masters have every tool at the ready to debase the product of my labors (ie savings) and the only defense against them is risk. "Invest in ________s!" they say. Fill in the blank with stocks, bonds, real estate, IRAs, (whatever) for all of which they have their fingers on the controlling strings. This is patently unfair. Once earned, the individual needs somewhere to put his savings where he can have control over them... somewhere beyond the managers' inflationary reach. In our system of voluntary slavery, they hold our noses to the grindstone and make us all work out our lifetimes. "Welcome to the machine," said Pink Floyd. OK, let's not take issue with that. Nor with the unfairness of one man's work being 'worth' more than another's (depending on whose son he is, or who he knows, or who likes him, etc). I won't even propose that topic. But once earned, why do they still need control over my savings? Has their greed no bounds?

Your proposed system at least holds out the possibility of an asset designed to hold its value in the face of their inflation. Seems logical to me. Seems like a system we could live with. The only system that we'll ever get, will be one that we can all live with. Maybe not anyone's perfect sytem. Not ORO's utopian gold standard. But at least one that most can tolerate. Who among us can really tolerate a system that sucks the value out of our savings through their insidious inflation if their is no refuge? No defense?

What is not quite clear to this observer is this:

Is the system you see one born of your own vision in the manner of ORO's gold standard? Is it some form of wishful thinking, however noble and/or logical and well-meaning?

Or is it, as a sytem, already mostly implemented? Do the European 'managers' already have the blueprint drawn up and set in place? You have mentioned ANOTHER's current reading of political postures/events on the part of the BIS. Please do not assume that we are not ready for this information based on the reaction from ORO. Some of his information has always been eye-opening and fascinating, but his weakness is his own political agenda. For those of us without a pre-conceived agenda, are you one of us? Are your thoughts the product of investigation? Of the truth seeker? Are ANOTHER's?

Or even more staggering: Is ANOTHER actually one of the 'managers', one of the architects of the new system assigned the task of propaganda? Are you his publicist? This would explain why ORO's ICBMs seem to have such a personal effect. If so, why not declare your advocacy? And tell us, while you're at it, when the new system is destined to become fully operable. Our hopes have been dashed so often.

Is this August, exactly 30 years after Nixon's surprise closure of the gold window, a significant date? If so, can you tell us exactly why? You once thought that a gold crisis would make the Y2K event largely irrelevant. You thought the Washington Agreement's spike would bring on the definitive default. Now it's 2001, and not yet. Now you say that GATA and Reg Howe's battle will be proven irrelevant... that the default is scheduled for before they could work their battle through the courts. How long could that take? A few years? Is there something out there, that you know about, that makes you say this? Or are you just betting on the numbers? On probability?

(05/10/2001; 10:59:49 MDT - Msg ID: 53346)

Brave New Fiat

Trail Guide says "The leading economic countries (EuroZone in the future) would have but to establish a protocol that forbid the enforcement of collateral attachment anytime physical gold is traded, lent or involved in a trade. In this context, no banker would lend you gold to buy a house if, in a default, he could not claim your house in a court of law."

Therefore, gold may not be used to trade goods and services.

Thus ordered the Holy Roman Emperor.

Cavan Man

(05/10/2001; 11:34:39 MDT - Msg ID: 53347)

PH in LA

"That's because the Old World culture chooses not to close a gold window again".

Trail Guide
USAGOLD 53314

I believe some of your questions can be answered by the considering the above statement.

It's my opinion that people beyond N. American shores have long, long memories and strategies that take decades to fully implement.

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/10/2001; 11:46:30 MDT - Msg ID: 53348)

ECB explains its across-the-board quarter point reduction in rates (4.5% on the main rate)

http://www.ecb.int/key/01/sp010510.htmECB president Willem Duisenberg told a press conference today that after the Governing Council "conducted its regular examination of monetary and economic developments and analysed their implications for the maintenance of price stability in the euro area" decided a rate cut was in order, citing, "somewhat lower inflationary pressure over the medium term."

Those who have been keeping their thoughts and eyes on our discussions of the implications the euro has for the dollar's legacy as international reserve currency had better take a good look at this portion of his remarks:

"In order to explain today's monetary policy decisions in some more detail, let me share with you our assessment of the information provided under the two pillars of the ECB's monetary policy strategy.

"As regards the first pillar, also taking into account the latest available information, monetary developments no longer pose a risk to price stability. M3 growth has been on a gradual downward trend since spring 2000, reflecting the increase in the key ECB interest rates which occurred in the period from November 1999. The three-month average of the annual growth rates of M3 was 4.8% in the period from January to March 2001, which is close to the reference value of 4�1/2%."

[Randy's note: OK, now pay attention to this following "significant" and "non-negligible" item, knowing as you do that such international euro use would effectively represent a displacement of dollar use.]

Duisenberg continues, "In the past few months, some slowdown in credit aggregates has also been visible. In addition, as already stated on several occasions, there have been indications that the monetary growth figures are distorted upwards by non-euro area residents' purchases of negotiable paper included in M3. This has now been confirmed by clear evidence, and the magnitudes involved are significant. As regards holdings of money market fund units/shares by non-euro area residents, on which we now have solid statistical data, the distortion has become more sizeable over recent months and currently amounts to around half a percentage point. In addition, there have been non-negligible upward distortions to the annual growth of M3 as a result of non-euro area residents' holdings of other marketable paper included in M3, for which precise statistical information is currently being developed.

"The ECB will keep the public informed about ongoing developments in these categories of M3. As these factors can be broadly identified, the information content under the first pillar is ensured. Taking into account these upward distortions, as well as all information from the first pillar, it can now be concluded that there is no longer a risk to price stability over the medium term emanating from the first pillar."

Buena Fe

(05/10/2001; 12:06:23 MDT - Msg ID: 53349)

Trail Guide 53314

A reasoned/tempered response......Cheers.

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/10/2001; 12:08:56 MDT - Msg ID: 53350)

Fed pumps up the volume, again

For the second straight day the Fed has added nearly 700 million dollars ($696) as permanent reserves to the banking system through the outright purchase of Treasury securities for the System account.

And while yesterday the Fed also added $3.0 billion via overnight repos, there was a similar operation today totaling $3.5 billion. Fed funds were trading below the FOMC target rate of 4.5 percent.

Mr Gresham

(05/10/2001; 12:13:16 MDT - Msg ID: 53351)

FOA, Oro

Getting a sore neck from watching you two play that marvelous ping-pong as you do. Not time to read today's volleys yet, but my thought was about ECB's independence from the Brussels bureaucracy that Oro is so vehement about/against. Is it? Is ECB trying to manage a currency apart from the other government functions the others handle, so that that currency can compete (and outrun the dollar?). I would imagine that was part of the 20-year period of readying for the Euro, and creating a "currency without a country."

My limited learnings about fiat management would suggest something like a Friedmanite standard of a fixed growth rate, such as 2% annual, to limit quantity and impose "scarcity" on the fiat. That would be the first responsibility, IMO, of a fiat central banker who wanted to do his job right, resisting other pressures. Next would be a bit of "taking away the punchbowl."

AG is obviously writing the textbook on how not to do either; it'll be interesting to read your takes on today's ECB action. ECB is still not too worried about outrunning the bear, I guess, is it?

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/10/2001; 12:28:00 MDT - Msg ID: 53352)

Comments by ECB chief economist Otmar Issing

http://www.usagold.com/goldenchalkboard/gc_otmarissing.htmlI posted this two days ago. Read it.

Sincerely yours,

A Free-thinking Derelict Monetary Lackey

Humble Pie

(05/10/2001; 12:34:16 MDT - Msg ID: 53353)

Letter from ANOTHER

FOA, Let's have it , I'm more than ready for it.

Trail Guide

(05/10/2001; 12:55:28 MDT - Msg ID: 53354)

(No Subject)

ALL,

I have not gone anywhere and will be posting more as soon as I can. Don't take our (ORO's & mine) comments to each other as burning down the stage. My goodness, we can take morning
water balloon shots at each other across the backyard fence and still share ice tea in the evening.
(smile)

TrailGuide

silvercollector

(05/10/2001; 13:51:31 MDT - Msg ID: 53355)

Galearis

Dear Sir,

If you have a moment will you email me please.

silvercollector@hotmail.com

beesting

(05/10/2001; 14:34:29 MDT - Msg ID: 53356)

Comments by Otmar Issing.

Sir Randy, I think this statement from your link by Mr. Issing says it all!!

SNIP:
<>UNSNIP.

Lets think about whats been said here:
Without firing a shot countries are giving up their economic sovereignty. So, lets take an imaginary trip into the future and see how it would affect Americans.
Say sometime in the future the value of the dollar became so low, Congress the Senate and the President decided to join the European Union and the "money" Americans were manadated to use was Euros.

Wouldn't that make every American sub-servient to the whims of foreign bankers?????? Wouldn't we be giving up our economic sovereignty?

From Congressman Ron Pauls book:
"What is the one huge advantage paper money has over a Gold coin monetary system? Answer, history has shown us paper money is much more efficient at financing the purchase of "war" materials and has a direct correlation on who can bomb others." End of excerpt from book.

Comments:
Many, many Americans who don't even believe in war, have been forced thru taxation to contribute to acts of war. Notice how the United Nations has not entered military conflicts in many years....WHY?? Answer, because military conflicts cost big money. Congressman Paul contends if Gold was used as a medium of exchange, governments ability to finance wars would be sharply curtailed.

This is one Goldheart who truly believes "WORLD PEACE" is even more important than Gold.

So, lets put the debate(Gold vs Paper) into a different context lets say a Gold standard helps to prevent wars and a paper standard promotes wars and war like activities. Now, which would be your choice?
Thanks for Reading....beesting.

Mr Gresham

(05/10/2001; 15:05:40 MDT - Msg ID: 53357)

Randy

http://www.usagold.com/goldenchalkboard/gc_otmarissing.htmlThat Otmar really is something, isn't he? If we were collecting "Famous Central Banker" trading cards, I'd wonder if I should buy his now, and put them away alongside my Paul Volcker All-Star Years collection. Actually, I wonder if our Fed should scout him for possible free-agent status in the coming years when his Euro contract runs out? Whaddya think? He sure can write econ well, huh?

Sounds to me like what he's saying is "We had to be vew-wy, vew-wy careful" starting the Euro. In other words, act like bankers (are supposed to act.)

When they saw how ingrained a habit of a currency name could be -- the "dollar" today is not anything in substance the same as a "dollar" of a century ago, but U.S. residents sentimentally treat it as the same via a lifetime's daily habituation of earning and spending -- they saw the utter risk they were taking in trying to supplant "Francs", "Marks" and other names in Europe, let alone replace "Dollars" in world usage. Currency tribalism a danger. Never, never fight a war on two fronts (now which country was it learned that one in most painful fashion?) Vew-wy vew-wy careful. Tiptoe.

And, you can read between his lines, the Keynesian era legerdemain by economists taught the public to consider "inflation" to mean only price increases, rather than currency overproduction. That set up the politicized expectation that an ECB must act in certain ways if prices went up faster or slower than expected, throwing off the currency maintenance function.

The above sets in motion the wise compromise and strategy to seek a deal with oil, and offer it a seat at the table and a piece of a future pie, in exchange for helping Euro maintain some of that price stability. (I still don't understand how that trade settlement designation helps so much.)

The competitive advantage of US enterprises has been described most sharply for us by Oro -- wonderful original work I have not encountered elsewhere -- and it seems Issing addresses some of that. Whether they move correctly to improve Europe remains to be seen, so it seems to me that FOA and Oro can differ on their expectations of success there, but only time will tell.

Meanwhile, my impression is that FOA gives much greater weight to the independence of Euro management as a currency from the overall European economic management, AND more importantly, to its freshness as a competitor to the dollar that is sufficient to jog gold out of gridlock.

FOA still sounds to me like more of a gold partisan than a Euro partisan. For our purposes here, it seems like the question is WHETHER, and HOW, the Euro will affect gold, rather than its long-term success as a fiat currency.

"When elephants battle, grass may get trampled, but they may also uncover some gold hidden in the bushes."

Tree in the Forest

(05/10/2001; 15:19:27 MDT - Msg ID: 53358)

Yukon

You asked:
Re: FDR's E/O Consfiscating gold in 1933, can anyone show me where in our Constitution Congress has the power to give authority to the President to enact an Executive Order that has jurisdiction over the people of the fifty states?
Also: Can anyone tell me where in our Constitution it is stated that Congress can re-delegate a power to a private group that we have delegated to them?

Me: Perhaps you missed my post on the Commercial Credit System. The Constitution has been bypassed by clever lawyers and corrupt politicians. We now have a private monetary system enforced under law by our courts. See the dissertation I posted on April 22 13:42 #52341. It describes the legal underpinnings of the Fed and the IRS. It was written in 1984, author uncertain. In spite of all of the opposition to a central bank over the years, it is still with us.

Buena Fe

(05/10/2001; 15:35:42 MDT - Msg ID: 53359)

Markets ultimately dictate rates

Anyone notice that US 30yr T-Bonds got whacked today? I'd guess that those foreign CB reserve assets are starting to grow legs and crawl back up onto US shores........evolution or is it revolution!

Com'n boys manufacture those bids........can't let the market fall (fail).

R Powell

(05/10/2001; 15:48:57 MDT - Msg ID: 53360)

One and one half fer day

I checked crbindex.com for the comex close price of gold and found it listed as unchanged. Under section 38, paragraph 5 of the Rules we find, "An indicator which has neither advanced nor declined during the day's trading shall be awared one half point for that time period (day)."
Thus POG gets one half, lease rates were down slightly and the XAU continued on it's upward journey. So the day's tally shows one point for the XAU and one half point for the POG. That makes a one and one half fer day.
Hopefully, cousin Chris will be posting good GATA news shortly and we'll get some press coverage. I read today's WSJ from cover to cover and found a total of one sentence on the Centaur mining company's demise and yesterday's rise in POG. One sentence on the commodities page.
Go GATA
Rich

Tree in the Forest

(05/10/2001; 15:49:53 MDT - Msg ID: 53361)

ORO

Re: Ashanti's crowded trade
I understand. This is the problem faced by all the gold shorts, no? Once they're in a fast market, their crowded trades will only exacerbate the situation.

Re: Gold leasing at $35 to SDR 35
The continuation of the official price of gold by the government at $42-$48 is a confirmation of the second default in 1971 and (perhaps) the Jamaica Accords. IMHO it is also an indication that the current 30 year workout period may be rapidly approaching an end. It is almost as if they are acknowledging that we are currently in a "twilight zone" in which gold is priced against a failing currency. The banks know this all too well. Davidson and Rees-Mogg have alluded to the broadening schism between banks and government and we see this fully in the schizophrenic split in gold pricing methods. Debt payments made by the US internationally at $525/oz are in Federal Reserve Notes, a separate currency not connected to the offical US dollar. It is a currency printed by the US mint, but sold at 4 cents per note to a private banking cartel operating under a franchise from the US government. Thus 2 different prices in two different currencies. And the $50 dollar face value on the Gold Eagle is, mayhaps, a glimpse of the future.

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/10/2001; 15:58:39 MDT - Msg ID: 53362)

"Economic Sovereignty"

A glorious-sounding term, to be sure.

But let's think about this "relinquishment" for a minute, beesting.

On the classic gold coin standard such as certain people say (or think) they want, there is no such degree of "sovereignty" is there? Well, sure, each nation could dictate the size and shape and design of the gold coins of the realm, but God forbid they ever tamper with the gold content once it has been decided. The "rules of the game" on such a gold standard are fixed, or heaven help them! Am I right? Not much degree of monetary sovereignty, is there?

Certain people (you know who they are) would likely be quick to build on this and point out how such freedoms of "monetary sovereignty" are merely tools of the derelict political and banking elite to "stick it to" the common man.

It therefore puzzles me when such strong proponents of a classic gold standard (with no sovereignty) will often cite this same relinquishment of national monetary sovereignty as an undesirable thing, a flaw within the eurosystem.

Oh, wait, now I get it. This is merely a transfer of many "sovereignties" over to Single Sovereign, thus marking the first big step toward a NEW world order. (Which is apparently repugnant because we all concede that TODAY'S "order" is worth keeping for all time, right? )

You said, "Congressman Paul contends if Gold was used as a medium of exchange, governments ability to finance wars would be sharply curtailed."

Since you've brought the topics of war finance into focus, how many of our known revolutionary, civil, and world wars were prevented by the brackdrop of a gold or bimetallic standard? (Caution, it is a trick question.)

Congressman Paul notwithstanding, would you concede that where there's a political will, there's a way, under a monetary standard of any stripe? As individuals, you and I would be powerless to stop them in the name of gold, Mother, or Apple Pie.

A government might in fact succeed nicely at funding a war effort with paper so long as the paper retained the future-use confidence in the minds of the munitions suppliers. But just as surely, the effort might soon be reduced to futility as the government overindulges and finds itself trying to trade paper having only burn value for the war munitions it seeks. A freely floating price for gold unattached to the paper currency would much more quickly transmit the level of monetary imprudence than would occur if the inevitable dislocations of bank runs were first needed to broadcast the degree of printing excesses under a gold standard.

And while our government has had somewhat free-reign with fiat-paper indiscretions while gold's value has been hidden in a mountain of bullion-banking-style gold derivatives, you yourself have said, "Notice how the United Nations has not entered military conflicts in many years....WHY?? Answer, because military conflicts cost big money."

Are we to therefore conclude from your words that paper money is the more effective brake on wars of size? And yet in your concluding remark, you have indicated otherwise. Help me out here, beesting.

Mr Gresham

(05/10/2001; 16:03:05 MDT - Msg ID: 53363)

(No Subject)

Knallgold: That Derb post was a keeper; lots to figure out -- can anyone else explain it?

Invisible Hand: "I thought that when the reward of an asset diminished, its price decreased also." The traders must be infected with "Amerimania"? They will play until they run out of play money. At mania extremes, does the "invisible hand" come largely in the form of an empty wallet? (Later:) "Rationality restored" -- when I was young, I knew everything, too. Hmmmm -- I wonder what the attitudes toward wealth, savings, retirement among the Euro-Boomers, as opposed to US counterparts? Do they possess a "sandwich" mentality, with two generations of "socialism" overlaid upon centuries of wealth consciousness, soon to be flipped upon entering a new, and final, stage of life?

Galearis: Well-spoken. "Human beings are extraordinary in their capacity for denial ...That is why the majority applaud interest rate cuts." Which is to say that savings in interest-bearing promises to pay will be a bad proposition for years to come, especially now that a should-be-saving generation (Boomers) is mired in debt along with its younger cohorts, and will beg for release. Some will gain it, and then find that the inheritances that might have comfortably sustained them have been decimated on arrival by these same forces.

PH in LA: You've got a great way with questions. Columbo always gets 'em on the last turnaround one, "oh,... just one more question..." It will be fascinating to someday learn just what niche those two actually have in all this -- there is enough of the aficionado showing in FOA to suggest only loose attachment to an official structure, but I'm sure he'll come back with something about "The Patient Art of Growing a Tree." Or a Gold Advocate. You gotta admit it, man: The Zen thing works, makes us think, answers don't.

He works hard, makes few mistakes, earns credibility the old-fashioned way. I'll repeat: this [Forum with its All-Star team] is that post-grad degree I never stuck around for, and further, it's watching the Great Game for our time, and we're in on it as participating observers. That's about as good as it gets.

beesting: It heartens me to see "PEACE" mentioned once in awhile, and not merely as a casualty of "things as they be". Thanks!

Tree in the Forest

(05/10/2001; 16:04:37 MDT - Msg ID: 53364)

Silver not a monetary metal

The "silver is not a monetary metal" mantra is very much akin to the "gold is a barbarous relic" bullsh*t. IMHO they are both propaganda. I say again, if it is so, then why the heavy manipulation? Why not let it trade like aluminum? And why is our illustrious ex-president still making trips to China and South Africa as if he was still in power and attempting to control the price of silver and gold? Maybe he is still in power. Or represents those who are.

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/10/2001; 16:12:58 MDT - Msg ID: 53365)

Federal Reserve Governor Laurence Meyer to a banking conference in Chicago:

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010510/n10578535.html"There seems to be a widespread feeling, which I share, that additional, or at least improved, efforts toward limiting moral hazard, enhancing market discipline, and lowering taxpayer liabilities should and can be made." On the topic of banks being seen as too-big-to-fail, Mr. Meyer wanted regulators to ensure as a safegurard against imprudent institutional conduct "that stockholders can lose all, that existing management can be replaced, that uninsured creditors can suffer losses, and that the institution can be wound down and possibly sold, in whole or in part, in an orderly way."

Reuters reports further that "Meyer's comments echoed those of Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, who addressed the conference earlier on Thursday. Greenspan said reforming the financial safety net of deposit insurance and regulation should remain on policy-makers' agendas."

But nevermind me. These are just more comments from, as ORO puts it, "derelict monetary boobs such as occupy the higher reaches of central banking and politics."

Tree in the Forest

(05/10/2001; 16:50:31 MDT - Msg ID: 53366)

Camel, PH in LA

I ride to the defense of sir ORO. Not that he needs me to defend him. But I must say that sir ORO's "agenda" is, in fact, the Libertarian agenda, one which is near and dear to the hearts of many who post and lurk here. If the schism between governments and banks that Davidson and Rees-Mogg have postulated continues to widen, we may see a loss in the perceived value of both organizations.

Central bankers are not gods, nor are they pond scum. They are somewheres in between as are we all. I think they must cringe every time a bozo bureaucrat from Brussels open his mouth. This is no insult to Europeans; we have the same here in the US only we call them beltway bozo bureaucrats. The bankers would probably be happy just to be allowed to do their job without political interference.

Both government and banks are trying hard to prove their worth to us. As time passes and the internet and other technologies explode, the value of these two organizations diminishes. They are the blacksmiths of the modern era, slowly becoming an anachronism. The average sheeple doesn't see or understand this but it is true nevertheless.

If I store my wealth as gold, in the allocated vaults of an electronic gold bank and make my purchase with a plastic card and I earn my "interest" through an electronic broker via stocks, bonds etc., what do I need debt based reserve banks and their income taxes for? The banks know this and eagerly seek to become electronic brokers as their original business slowly fails.

And if the Fed and the Commercial Credit System derived from the Fed fail so that government can no longer bypass the constitution and hand out patronage, what do I need government for? So they can use fiat money to fund more wars in an effort to show us that we need them?

These changes happen so slowly that we are hard pressed to see them. Only the perspective of history will illuminate the momentous events and tortured travails of our time.

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/10/2001; 17:26:29 MDT - Msg ID: 53367)

More on monetary measurements (another mini-course in monetary policy for those who want it)

http://www.ecb.int/key/01/sp010510en.htmThe broadest measure of the U.S. money supply, M3, does not include certain dollars that have flown outside the U.S system of banks located at home and abroad. When you hear people refering to eurodollars, it is these U.S. dollars abroad to which that term refers.

Hmmmmmm... I wonder if the ECB will refer to their owncounterpart currencies that are abroad as euroeuros. Or maybe dollareuros. Naaaaah...that's just stupid. Perhaps they will call them asiaeuros or amerieuros?

Well, whatever they decide to call them, the ECB is now able to MEASURE them (they couldn't before). And just as is done with our own Fed's exclusion of eurodollars from the M3 measurement, the ECB is able to identify the growing quantity of "foreign-euros" and thereby gain an adjusted, corresponding view of the M3 money supply within the currency union. I wanted to ensure you understood that so that the following comments make sense, and you can thereby draw your own conclusions regarding the implications to the dollar and its use-displacement as I alluded to in the earlier ECB rate cut press conference.

This follow-up is from the question and answer session as reporters posed questions to ECB president Duisenberg. Keep in mind from earlier, the ECB has within one pillar of montary policy strategy a reference value growth rate for M3 of 4.5%. Sorry this is so long, but once you **understand** rather than memorize a process, the working knowledge is yours forever. (That is, until the rules of the game are changed.)
---------------
Question:
Mr. President. If the money inflow from foreigners was large enough to distort M3 figures upward by 0.5 percentage point as you said, should that not have pushed the euro exchange rate a lot higher? Or, put the other way round, has the euro been more or less stable recently at its present rate of 88-89 cents because of the inflow of money from outside?

Duisenberg:
Now, there must be a misunderstanding here. I talked about the distortions which occurred, and which we have already known for months that they were there, but we were not certain of their amount or of their dynamic development, let me call it that. It concerns the holdings of mutual funds, issued by euro area MFIs, by non-euro area residents. In the past we were not able to distinguish them from resident holdings of the euro area. We now are. So, it is a refinement of our statistical apparatus. It has taken us a fairly long time. But we are now - and it is only a matter of a few days I am talking about - able to identify them. You will find a full description of the technical details I am talking about in next week's Monthly Bulletin, in which a special box will be devoted to this topic, which I hope will remove your misunderstanding. From now on we will publish the amount of this distortion every month.

...However, there is one significant thing, which is included in my Introductory Statement. We also had the impression when we finally got the results a few days ago - and to be quite honest this was also new for me - that the magnitude of this first distortion I mentioned, which on average is about 0.5 percentage point, has been, and is gradually, INCREASING over time. [emphasis added]

Question:
Why is it a distortion?

Duisenberg:
Because it gives it a distorted image of what the M3 figures really are. It is not a distortion in the sense that it was wrong. But we are now in a position to identify elements which should not belong in the definition of M3, which so far we were not able to identify, even though the quality of our statistics is very high indeed. Now we are able to identify them. And also because, as I said, it is not only the absolute magnitude, but also the change in size of this phenomenon - if I may call it that instead of a distortion - that has monetary policy implications. The dynamics of M3 corrected seem to be less that we thought earlier.

Question (translation):
...is there any scientific way of explaining why two or four weeks ago, despite the fact that nothing much has changed since then, you seemed to assess things differently. I mean, four weeks ago we had the same situation as today, the same two weeks ago and the same today. Why did you change your assessment?

Duisenberg:

...Under the first pillar, we have this new phenomenon of correcting the, may I call it again, dynamics of the M3 developments. That is new. This makes us believes that, although before we thought we were approaching the reference value, now we know that, in fact, we have already been under the reference value of 4�1/2% for quite some time and increasingly so. So that, for example, is in itself new.

Question:
... if you take into account your new correction of M3, does it mean that actual M3 is only slightly over 4%?

Duisenberg:
If you take the precise correction: for the last figure we have, for example, the March figure for M3 - although that is only a one-month figure - as published was 5.0%. The correction for March can be put at 0.6. So that means that effectively we would be at 4.4. On average for the last three months, e.g. the figure for the period from January to March was 4.8 and the figure for the correction was 0.5. So that would take us to an average figure as related to the reference value of 4.3.
---------------------------

Bottom line: shed your own dollars for the safety of gold before the rest of the world rushes en masse to shed its holding of eurodollars. Such a flood will build upon itself and drastically impact the favorable exit exchange rate you can get still today.

JMB

(05/10/2001; 18:19:45 MDT - Msg ID: 53368)

SECTOR @ G-E has mentioned our TREE in the FOREST

A very interesting post @ 18:06

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/10/2001; 18:26:42 MDT - Msg ID: 53369)

Tree in the Forest, what are your thoughts?

You state a course of action:
"If I store my wealth as gold, in the allocated vaults of an electronic gold bank and make my purchase with a plastic card and I earn my "interest" through an electronic broker via stocks, bonds etc., what do I need debt based reserve banks and their income taxes for?"

First, banks don't charge income taxes. I believe your beef is more properly directed at the bloated size of government on that account. Governments are truly too fat, as are taxes taken in exchange for the low quality of services being rendered.

Second, if you store your wealth as gold, within the framework of a standard banking system you have given me and all others the power to destroy the purchasing power of your savings. We could do this by borrowing similar gold to yours as a form of "checkbook gold" and spending it. The system inflates and then evolves upon the political will resulting from the inevitable dislocations that develop over time as economies cycle with the collective mood of it participants.

To be sure, let me say this. Right now we have a commericial fiat currency banking system, and we also have a bullion banking system. They each inflate and thus destroy a degree of the purchasing power of the accounting unit they employ. While there is no upward limit to which paper can be inflated, there is a practical limit to which banks can inflate the contract gold supply before runs commence on the banks by their depositors. Do you currently have a leased gold account earning interest (or deferring your storage fees)? If so, you will surely learn this lesson at a dire price in lost physical gold.

Because bullion banking has succeeded in destroying the current apparent value of all gold under its mountain of near-gold derivative contracts and accounts, now is a very prudent time to take your gold off the table, or to buy other people's gold deposits put out on lease as your civic duty to teach them a hard lesson.

I say, when the bullion banking system falls AGAIN (and it will) and the true value of gold is revealed in a moonshot, why should we tolerate the bullion banking system to be rebuilt so as to repeat the cycle of destruction? In the past, ORO has proposed a laundry list of new rules and regulations that he feels would keep the system stable. Methinks he is more concerned about preserving bullion banking as an ongoing venture than he is about securing personal property rights. Perhaps he is merely preserving a vested interest in this field of study. What say you, ORO? Must you press down upon the brow of mankind your crown of bullion banking thorns? Must you crucify our tangible savings upon your cross-referenced gold banking ledgers? (With apologies to WJB)

Tree, wouldn't you welcome the simple revocation/alteration of current facilitating legislation that allows our gold value to be jeopardized by banking corporations as we have seen throughout modern history? In my view, gold does NOT need the repayment obligations of loan contracts to give it value as claimed by the vocal gold standard shills for the bullion banking system. A wholly-owned savings asset as a safe haven from the fiat currency banking system shall be an adequate usage to give gold a very high and stable value. My view, and time will tell, but I am prepared today. Are you prepared for either outcome?

auspec

(05/10/2001; 18:42:54 MDT - Msg ID: 53370)

WHEN?

http://www.getreadyforsomerealfun3rdqtr01!When was the last summer you remember that had a strong gold rally? When was the last time your gold/resource stocks started multiplying in price before your eyes? When was the last time it was consistently difficult to get through to your resource broker on the phone? When did your stockpile/hoard last appreciate 10 to 20% per month? When did you last experience "greed" instead of "fear"? When did your spouse last say; "Wow, great job HONEY". When did your friends last ask for your personal investing advice? When did you last use the black ink much more than the red ink? When did you last have a 5X? 10X? 25X? When did you last SELL HIGH? When was the last time you had a capital gains "problem"? When did you last celebrate a MAJOR investment profit? When did you last feel like you couldn't miss? When did you last................???

Be ready, dammit!

auspec

(05/10/2001; 18:44:39 MDT - Msg ID: 53371)

Corrected Link

http://www.thoseAholeswillpaydearlysoon.com!.

USAGOLD

(05/10/2001; 19:13:12 MDT - Msg ID: 53372)

Auspec. . . .

Gotta love ya, good buddy.

Keep trying this link, but I can't understand it -- it doesn't work for some reason:

http://www.thoseAholeswillpaydearlysoon.com!

I hereby nominate this url for CLHE-HoF (Hall of Fame) and looking for enobled seconds from this esteemed table. It is fitting. It begs to be done.

Gandalf, are you out there? Goldfly? Spot? Where is Spot anyway? By the way, Gandalf, loved the photo you sent me (of Spot). Perhaps, you can make it available to all???

Onward, fellow 'meisters.

Rockgrabber

(05/10/2001; 19:20:26 MDT - Msg ID: 53373)

We are learning the hard way

My faith rests for now on words such as these.
Mr Jerimiah said what he new so well. He knew this, and did not even have near such insight as us. Here the words are..

"I well know, O Jehovah, that to earthling man his ways do not belong. It does not belong to man who is walking to direct his own step."

Tree in the Forest

(05/10/2001; 19:33:37 MDT - Msg ID: 53374)

Randy-Comex gold

Hi Randy. You ask so many questions and here I am a man of few words! I shall try to answer your post but it will have to keep til tomorrow. Tonight we must address some interesting Comex action today. June gold has an enormous open interest of 73,278 contracts and furthermore it's up today about 6000 contracts. This is a time when traders are thinking about holding, selling or rolling over June contracts, not adding new postions! FND is May 31, 3 weeks away. People holding into June are frequently considering taking delivery. According to sector over at GE, someone is desperately trying to prop up Comex with additional gold and the word is getting out that there's a gold shortage. Uncle Henry is sitting in the tub and getting very nervous Randy! He's wondering if his gold is safe! It's 10 o'clock. Do you know where your gold is?

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/10/2001; 19:40:33 MDT - Msg ID: 53375)

Knallgold @ # 53332 per Derb link

Most efficient cost of production per ounce of gold $250 per ounce since 1992 as per Derb link.

Can someone tell us what the most efficient cost of production of silver per ounce is today.

TIA

Respectfully,

HBM

VanRip

(05/10/2001; 19:54:54 MDT - Msg ID: 53376)

Bill Fleckenstein's Column

For those interested in Bill Fleckenstein's observations regarding gold, here's today's take:

Peter Asher

(05/10/2001; 20:02:38 MDT - Msg ID: 53377)

Second to your motion, Michael!

Maybe it you should file it for a new Forum domain name $:-)

megatron

(05/10/2001; 20:25:00 MDT - Msg ID: 53378)

Galearis/Tree /'Monetary metal'

Sorry for the sarcastic post. I am in deep with silver, baby! Got those palladium profits locked down from last year(paper, by the way!) and have burned an image of the 5 year chart in my retina's, to be superimposed over silver chart!
(10X over that period!) It's gonna be nuts!

Elwood

(05/10/2001; 21:03:40 MDT - Msg ID: 53379)

Randy (@ The Tower) (5/10/01; 18:26:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 53369)

--------
"I say, when the bullion banking system falls AGAIN (and it will) and the true value of gold is revealed in a moonshot, why should we tolerate the bullion banking system to be rebuilt so as to repeat the cycle of destruction? In the past, ORO has proposed a laundry list of new rules and regulations that he feels would keep the system stable. "
-----

Oh? Randy, could you reference a post where this occurred? I normally read this board every day, and I seemed to have missed that one.

I love chucking water balloons just as much as the next guy, but this ain't that.

Oro, your reasoning is sound, but as long as there are "large" traders willing to accept the fiat in trade for their real goods then there will be an exchange value for the fiat. Surely you realize that these large traders understand the fiat just as you do, right?

Alternatively:
"There would be an inevitable tendency for the less marketable of the series of goods used as media of exchange to be one by one rejected until at last only a single commodity remained, which was universally employed as a medium of exchange; in a word, money."
From Ludwig von Mises, Theory of Money and Credit, pp.32-33.

"Just as in nature there is a great variety of skills and resources, so there is a variety in the marketability of goods. Some goods are more widely demanded than others, some are more divisible into smaller units without loss of value, some more durable over long periods of time, some more transportable over large distances. All of these advantages make for greater marketability. It is clear that in every society, the most marketable goods will be gradually selected as the media for exchange. As they are more and more selected as media, the demand for them increases because of this use, and so they become even more marketable. The result is a reinforcing spiral: more marketability causes wider use as a medium which causes more marketability, etc. Eventually, one or two commodities are used as general media-in almost all exchanges-and
these are called money."
Murray N. Rothbard, What Has Government Done to Our Money?

Oro, taking into account man's willingness and ability to use paper substitutes, what is the more marketable item today: gold or oil?

Do you see that the world is under *two* bubbles, not just the one created by the inflation of the fiat dollar? There's another *huge* bubble. It's the one upon which the entire production structure of the world has been inflated. Cheap oil is what underpins it. (pun intended)

Could it be that it's not the governments that are foisting these fiats upon the world, but the world's suppliers of oil who are insisting on the fiat in order to keep gold affordable? Can we think of it as "printing" oil?

Thanks for your thoughts,
Elwood

Black Blade

(05/10/2001; 21:43:42 MDT - Msg ID: 53380)

Natural Gas and Oil Inventory Data

Camel earlier today asked for some injection data, this is the best I can do on short notice - Week ended April 27

Crude oil prices have fallen back a bit as expected during the usual Spring build up of oil stocks. US crude inventories rose 8.3 million and 6.3 million barrels during the week ended April 27, vs. the previous week, depending on whose numbers one follows. The American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Department never agree on the data. Either way, oil inventories are up about 7% over last years levels. The problem isn't so much oil but how to process enough of it. Refineries are running flat out and many are due for Spring maintenance.

June Natural Gas fell as well due to a rise in inventories bigger than expected. This also tends to occur in the Spring, yet this large increase in NG inventories was unexpected. The American Gas Association (AGA) said that NG inventories as of the week ended April 27, rose by 102 billion cubic feet to a total of 850 billion cubic feet. The AGA expected an average 85 billion to 90 billion cubic feet of natural gas to be added to inventories. In fact this helped to crush NG prices this week as a year ago NG inventories rose only 32 billion cubic feet. US stocks are still 30 percent below the five year average during the same period.

Exploration and production of NG proceeds at a frantic pace. If supplies can be sufficiently built up before the big draw-down this Summer, then the question is whether there will be enough for the huge draw-down for the Winter heating period. Remember that 70% of US homes are heated by NG - not heating oil. Simmons and Co. Intl. Had done research where insufficient NG will result in numerous deaths (in the thousands) during a Winter cold spell. This obviously would impact the elderly and very young the hardest. The Summer draw-down will occur as the nation fires up the air conditioning where an additional 20% of electricity is consumed. It still looks like an ugly prospect with eventual higher NG and utility rates hitting companies earnings and consumers pocketbooks. The days of the phoney baloney market rallies are numbered. It would be prudent to build up those golden lifeboats for smooth sailing.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/10/2001; 21:59:57 MDT - Msg ID: 53381)

Fewer Americans are saving for retirement amid falling market - Fewer are confident they'll have the funds they need

http://www.msnbc.com/news/571266.asp
Snippit:

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

May 10 � The drubbing in the stock market in the past year, as well as growing concerns about the future cost of medical and long-term care, are taking their toll on workers and their preparations for retirement. A SURVEY to be released Thursday by the Employee Benefit Research Institute and others finds that fewer Americans are saving for retirement, fewer are confident that they will have sufficient funds to live comfortably in retirement, and fewer have tried to calculate how much money they need to save for later life.

Black Blade: With fewer funds flowing into those retirement funds, a little more air is escaping from the bubble. Wonder how many have portfolio insurance for what they already have invested? Consider that Social Insecurity won't be there for most of today's working Americans. Already there are proposals to extend the retirement age a few years. It is the old carrot and stick game. As many approach the carrot - put it just a little further out of reach. Good scam though!

Black Blade

(05/10/2001; 22:11:11 MDT - Msg ID: 53382)

Gold Market Report

https://www.sogemin.com/website/Reports/new%20gold.pdfGold market report.

Black Blade

(05/10/2001; 22:12:35 MDT - Msg ID: 53383)

Silver Market Report

https://www.sogemin.com/website/Reports/new%20silver.pdfSilver market report

Black Blade

(05/10/2001; 22:14:01 MDT - Msg ID: 53384)

PGM Market Report

https://www.sogemin.com/website/Reports/new%20platimum.pdfPGM market report

Just waking up

(05/10/2001; 22:19:43 MDT - Msg ID: 53385)

@ Randy & FOA

Dear Randy and FOA,

I have been reading your arguements against a classical gold standard and for a dual system of fiat and "Freegold" Your main argurment is that because of credit expansion in a gold standard, the purchasing power of physical gold gets diluted and deprives us of a safe place to store wealth. Yet, it seems to me, that this will happen in your system also. Will not futures, options, forward sales and leasing develop under your envisioned system? Can you outlaw all these? What will be the cost? Will not some other form of paper derivatives based on gold develop?

You say we are stuck with fiat for the rest of our lives, I agree (it would just about take divine intervention to change that!). But it would be almost as hard to put an end to paper gold. It would take an historic, unified, concerted effort of all the worldwide powers-that-be to put an end to paper gold. I believe we will be living with paper gold the rest of our lives also. Why would the-powers-that-be want to give us a refuge from their fiat through which they can rob us?

You say the paper gold market will fail. What then? Just as with the silver debacle of 1980, there will be bankruptcies, defaults and lawsuits, but the system will go on. There may be a few rule changes to calm everybody down, and then it will be back to "business as usual".

In response to your question about American wars and fiat: the Revolutionary War was financed with fiat. Hence the saying, "not worth a continental" and the clause in our constitution "forbiding the states to make anything but gold and silver, legal tender in payment of debt" Both the North and South financed the Civil War with fiat. America was the only combatant in WW1 to manage to retain their gold standard. One of the first things Hitler did when he came to power was institute the death penalty for gold possesion. A couple years later FDR confiscated our gold. Within a decade the whole world was at war.

Fiat doesn't cause wars, human nature does, but fiat facilitates them.

Kind regards,

Bob

Black Blade

(05/10/2001; 22:31:42 MDT - Msg ID: 53386)

Cooler weather gives Calif. a break from blackouts

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010510/n1078401.html
Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO, May 10 (Reuters) - Cooler weather lifted some of the load from California's straining power grid on Thursday, sharply reducing the likelihood of rolling blackouts, state energy officials said. Though blackouts look unlikely over the next few days, the ISO warns May remains a tough month, with many power plants shut for maintenance needed to put them in top shape for the hot summer months ahead.

Black Blade: Now that Summer is about to start, that little bit of confidence and very short repreive will soon evaporate with the return of normal higher summertime temperatures. Actually, I have eaten roasted Grasshoppers in SE Asia. OK, they were actually crickets, but the same thing really. When one is a guest, it is preferable not to offend the host - so "yummy these crickets are good." We are about to see some roasting in California soon and though I don't intend to eat Californian Grasshoppers, it too will be quite an "interesting" experience.

These power failures will take a toll on the World's sixth largest economy and the shockwaves will ripple throughout the US economy (and beyond). A little gold could go a long way.

Gandalf the White

(05/10/2001; 22:31:55 MDT - Msg ID: 53387)

Right behind you and Peter of the House of Asher, MK !

http://www.thoseAholeswillpaydearlysoon.com!USAGOLD (5/10/01; 19:13:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 53372)
Auspec. . . . Gotta love ya, good buddy.
------
I hereby nominate this url for CLHE-HoF (Hall of Fame) and looking for enobled seconds from this esteemed table. It is fitting. It begs to be done.
++++++
I too second this for the CLHE-HoF !
<;-)
PS MK --- Calling to SPOT right now.

ORO

(05/10/2001; 22:38:17 MDT - Msg ID: 53388)

Randy - my regs

Thanks Elwood for pointing it out.

My rules are:
1. contract with a bank be enforced.
2. bank discloses what it does till the bank official is satisfied that the depositor knows what portion of his gold will be kept on reserve.

These are common law rules that predate all existing governments with the possible exception of Switzerland. (The Brits changed their system).

The one with the legalisms and twisted law are you, FOA, and all who support the ECB + hobbled gold concept. It is they who need to impose restrictions on what people want to do with their gold. The protocols FOA imagines are simple will turn out to be devilishly complex because a debt is simply a type of future delivery contract where the deliverable is a monetary unit. Putting an order for gold coin at USAGOLD obliges this establishment to ship gold coin within a certain time of receiving my tradable - most likely to be a dollar denominated instrument of some sort.

A comment on oil as money sits in one of my old posts to FOA. It is a commodity with a falling marginal utility, great bulk, and not at all fit to be a money. The only form in which it can be used as money is as oil notes, redeemable in oil within some time of demand and issued by oil companies, bankers, speculators, etc. and probably organized in mutual fund form to aggregate what is a variety of different oil grades. Even then, having oil as a money leaves you with only those extremely large units for delivery. Oil reserves in the ground would be traded in this form, but what do you do when oil obtains a monetary premium - a value above its value as the input for distilation? Why, you have reconstituted coal oil and shale oil coming up in the wings with $40-50 production costs, and tar sands profitable already, and it would replace oil in actual use because oil is too precious in the ground where it can be used as money. In order to bring oil back into its relative pricing with competing products (for use as the distilate precursor) you would need bankers and oil companies to expand the oil note supply to the point where the monetary premium was diluted enough so that someone could use it for the purpose that gave it value in the first place. The dilution would bring about the familliar condition of there being waaaay more notes than there is known oil. As oil depletes from use, the leveraged oil note issuers would scramble to find more oil, and would eventually succumb to bankruptcy as there would be none that could be extracted at a cost lower than extraction from competing products. Oil notes would then become worthless.

Buena Fe

(05/10/2001; 22:51:13 MDT - Msg ID: 53389)

The Spin

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AOvtcnRS8RXVybyBQ05/10 23:29
Euro Poised to End Worst Week in a Month After ECB Cuts Rates
By Miki Anzai and Mari Murayama

Tokyo, May 11 (Bloomberg) -- The euro was poised to finish its biggest weekly loss in a month, as traders said an interest- rate cut by the European Central Bank yesterday was so unexpected that it hurt the bank's credibility as an inflation fighter..............

WIM HAS GOT TO BE FUMING OVER THE SPIN THAT THE "CABAL" DESPERATLY EXUDES EVERY TIME HE MAKES A MOVE (OR DOESN'T), I THOUGHT THE EURO WAS GOING TO GO UP IF THE ECB CUT RATES! HEE HEE..MY GUESS IS WIM IS GOING TO ENJOY THE LAST LAUGH SHORTLY..........MY BET.....BEFORE THE END OF MAY WE GET THE FIRST MAJOR HICKUP IN THE PERCIEVED VALUE OF THE US BANANA.

Black Blade

(05/10/2001; 22:51:20 MDT - Msg ID: 53390)

Market watch: Energy futures prices rise with gasoline market concerns

http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=TOPST&ARTICLE_ID=100615
Snippit:

HOUSTON, May 10 -- Energy future prices rallied Wednesday on international markets as traders reacted to a smaller-than-expected build in US gasoline stocks and reports of refinery problems in the Western Hemisphere. Wednesday's market reacted to that, along with reports of problems at Sunoco's Point Breeze refinery in Philadelphia, and speculations that floods and power outage would disrupt production at two Venezuelan refineries.

Black Blade: The supply chain is somewhat in a precarious position where almost any miss-step could push energy prices higher. A new refinery problem could pressure prices because refinery utilization rates are maxed out and reformulated grades must be ready to be in place prior to the Summer months (especially in California and the Mid-West where prices are expected to be very high regardless). Transportation of goods will be passed on to the consumer and in turn fuel inflation.

beesting

(05/10/2001; 23:40:01 MDT - Msg ID: 53391)

Paper Money Finances War!

Hi Sir Randy # 53362, thanks for responding to my post. I'll try to give a little more
input to some of the points you have raised:

Randy quoting beesting:
<< you yourself have said, "Notice how the United Nations has not entered
military conflicts in many years....WHY?? Answer, because military conflicts
cost big money.">>

beesting expansion of original thought:
It's my understanding that Japan and Germany after WWII had new
Constitutions drawn up forbidding military action on foreign soil.( Wouldn't
it be nice if other nations made amendments to their Constitutions forbidding
military action on foreign soil?) Most of the other members of the United
Nations are also members in good standing with the IMF/World Bank who
have many of them owing excessive amounts of foreign(paper) debt, IMHO
in order to not accumulate any more debt most of these nations will only
enter conflicts on their own soil.

Randy:
<more effective brake on wars of size?>>
beesting:
Quite the contrary Sir Randy, here are some of Ron Pauls words,I agree with
his writings, begin quote:
"Although it did not become apparent for decades, the Federal Reserve
Act(1913) made possible the massive inflation necessary to finance our tragic
entrance into WWI....etc etc. And(I had to read this twice) If a country
inflates((Prints excessive paper money using Gold as collateral)) under a
GOLD standard, Gold flows out of the treasury , hamstringing the
government."*** Since a Gold standard enables the average person to
restrain the government's attempts to inflate, control the economy,run up
deficits, and fight senseless wars, the central planners had to eliminate this
fundamental American freedom to own Gold....etc.etc End of Ron Paul
quote.(talking about the Gold reserve act of 1934 which has since been
repealed)

***Lets see if we can elaborate on Congressman Pauls words a little bit.
I take this statement to mean, if every American is using Gold in everyday
transactions, the Department of the Treasury would be forced to issue "paper
money,backed by nothing, as they did in the Civil war(Greenbacks) and wars
are supposed to be approved by congress and the senate.....And We the
People.(((My very favorite bumper sticker from the Viet Nam
days.....""What Would Happen if Governments Declared War, and Nobody
Showed Up""?))) Here is what Congressman Paul said about the greenback,
quote:

During the greenback paper money inflation of the Civil War, prices rose
183% while wages went up only 54%. During WWI inflation, prices rose
135% and wages increased only 88%.***When greenback-denominated
prices rose during the Civil War, GOLD PRICES(Gold still circulating,
especially in California) DIDN'T GO UP, so it was obvious to everyone
what the cause of inflation was(PAPER MONEY!)...And this,,,, To finance
our Revolutionary War, the Continental Congress issued paper money in
great quantities. Over a period of about 4 and 1/2 years , the Continental
currency fell from a value of --One paper dollar per one Gold Dollar, to
about 1000 to one." End quote.

beesting again:
Lets see if we can tie together another event concerning Gold and Wars,,,Oh
yes, wasn't the U.S. 1971 Gold default right in the middle of the Viet Nam
War? Coincidence, I think not. Even with paper dollars circulating
worldwide in ever increasing amounts, the proud U.S. Treasury defaulted on Gold.
(International settlements were still made in Gold) Congressman Paul says, if
the U.S. people were still using Gold in every day trade as mandated in the
Constitution, the Viet Nam War may never have been financed by the U.S.
taxpayer.... The United States(Read Taxpayer) has Never Been out of Debt
Since the Civil War!!!

Randy again:
<Help me out here, beesting.>>

beesting concluding remark from previous post today:
<Gold standard helps to prevent wars and a paper standard promotes wars and
war like activities. Now, which would be your choice?>>

beesting final comment:
It seems obvious to me from the above examples, a paper money monetary
system has been used in the past to finance all modern wars, sometimes using
Gold as collateral to print paper money.However I think Congressman Paul
makes a very good case when he states Americans on a Gold coin standard
would balk at financing Wars on foreign soil, because Gold would come out
of taxpayers pockets instead of paper. If you think people try to find tax
loopholes now, using paper money, imagine what it would be like if we did
use Gold coins for money and the majority of taxpayers understood what is
talked about on this forum. By the way, those early U.S. Wars were fought at
a time when there was no individual income tax, even the WWII individual
taxes were very low.
Thanks for Reading...off to bed....beesting.

Black Blade

(05/11/2001; 00:05:11 MDT - Msg ID: 53392)

Recession Rolls, but does not Envelop, U.S.

http://www.dismal.com/thoughts/article.asp?aid=1194
Snippit:

The U.S. economy avoided recession through the first quarter due to its industrial and regional diversity. Recession is certainly evident, but it is rolling across different industries and regions rather than hitting them all at once.

Black Blade: Rolling recession. Interesting article with nice US map. The "Big Picture" is that ultimately we are all headed in the same direction.

View Yesterday's Discussion.

Black Blade

(05/11/2001; 00:25:47 MDT - Msg ID: 53393)

Confidence Dilemma - API or EIA?

The problem with the API and EIA petroleum inventory data. These data are more recent than that I posted a couple of hours ago. But this data also demonstrates the difficulty of interpretation as here is an industry research group American Petroleum Institute (API), and a government research group within the Department of Energy, the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The API inventory numbers show a downward movement in crude oil stocks during the week ending May 4. The EIA however reported an increase. According to the API, crude oil inventories decreased 0.3 million barrels. The EIA reported an increase of 0.6 million barrels. Estimates of distillate stocks decreased this week according to the API but increased according to the EIA. The API reported a decrease of 1.0 million barrels, while the EIA reported an increase of 0.3 million barrels. Inventories of motor gasoline increased by 1.1 million barrels according to the API, while the EIA reported an increase of 1.2 million barrels in inventory. Reformulated gasoline stocks increased by 1.2 million barrels according to the EIA. The gasoline data are closely watched for the main summer driving season. Refinery utilization decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 98.3% according to the EIA, indicating that refiners continue to operate at full capacity.

Refineries running at full capacity, where any disruption including the probability of breakdowns and outages will severely crimp supply. The low gasoline inventories are still about 3.5% below their level one year ago, any refinery outage will obviously result in regional price spikes. Refiners can not substitute one blend of gasoline due to varying regional EPA requirements. This is especially true of California and the Midwest. It's not easy being green, but it sure is a whole lot more expensive.

- Black Blade

ORO

(05/11/2001; 00:44:59 MDT - Msg ID: 53394)

Randy - economic sovereignty

The point of the matter is not that one country has less sovereignty with gold, but that ALL countries share the same lack of economic sovereignty. This makes for governments large and small having to serve the market's preferences. Actions of the people all around the globe who have something to sell something to buy dictate interest rates, prices, etc. - because people trade, not governments and not countries.

Free Gold Money puts the individual on a par with his government. Government must pay the market interest rate just like you do.

Fiat - particularly the fiat reserve system created in Bretton Woods, and who's legacy we live with - creates a differential between different size countries. The largest economic unit will have the greatest volumes of bilateral trade, thus in order to avoid many currency conversions, many industries and banks among the trade partners will maintain balances in the large country's currency, while the large country needs only little of its multiple trade partner's currencies on hand, because everyone has the large country's currency. Furthermore, the traders with people of the large country will want to denominate output supply and input provision contracts in the same currency. Thus all countries end up trading predominantly in the currency of the largest economy even for the bulk of trade among themselves. It is the liquidity preference effect.

The large country will manage its currency for its domestic purposes, and thus interest rates and money supply growth rates set in the large country dictate what happens in the smaller countries, as rates fall to the floor because of a slow down in the large country, the small ones may skyrocket into hyperactivity. As the large country tightens credit in order to avoid emerging price inflation from escalating, the small countries undergo a fall off a cliff recession. That is what economic sovereignty is about.

In the international gold standard there was no such condition, each economy's effects were proportional to their economies as a whole, not only the internationaly tradeable portion that can earn foreign exchange.

The picture is not that one sided, however, as international trade has grown in size 10 fold in Asia over 20 years to over $1 trillion each way ($2 tril together) and with the rest of the world's trade having grown to a total approaching the size of US GDP, the pull of the aggregate of the smaller countries had grown larger, and their deflationary conditions clear big chunks of the monetary base out of the US through our trade deficit, they are also pulling lower short term interest rates (Eurodollar rates). Now we have a roughly equal pull of the US economy and the rest of the world. Thus the Fed's interest rate games will have less of an effect abroad than before.

A sharing of the reserve function with Europe breaks with the liquidity preference rule, thus one of them must remain on the sidelines. But both the US and Europe are too small to provide the world with a stable reserve system based on internal targeting of monetary policy.

SHIFTY

(05/11/2001; 02:05:02 MDT - Msg ID: 53395)

Yeah right this should do it.

http://globalarchive.ft.com/globalarchive/articles.html?id=010511001409&query=goldINTERNATIONAL ECONOMY: Gold to play on warm image as the 'new cool'
Financial Times; May 11, 2001
By RICHARD TOMKINS

The World Gold Council yesterday set out to give gold's lacklustre image a makeover by launching a Dollars 55m (Pounds 38m) marketing campaign that will play on the metal's "warmth".

A new logo called a gold mark will include a circular motif intended to symbolise the sun, and advertisements for the metal will end with the slogan "glow with gold".

Branding experts hope to reverse gold's down-market drift by convincing the fashion-conscious that the cold, detached minimalism of recent years is out and that warm, sensuous richness is back in.

Advertisements will build on the idea that "warm" is the "new cool", contrasting the cold, stark, heroin-chic images of recent years with what the gold council claims is today's desire for a more positive and meaningful lifestyle.

Haruko Fukuda, the gold council's chief executive, said people's values today had more to do with the joy and happiness derived from human experiences than with owning material things, "so we are appealing to the emotional and spiritual val ues associated with gold".

The council, which represents gold producers, is launching the campaign in the hope of increasing demand for the metal and lifting the price from the trough into which it has sunk.

From a peak of Dollars 835 a troy ounce in 1980, the price has been well under Dollars 300 an ounce for more than a year.

Central banks have contributed to the decline by off-loading some of their holdings on to the market. But the price has also been hit by a changes in fashion.

In the trend-setting west, cool, understated platinum has become the metal of choice, while gold is often portrayed as ostentatious and vulgar.

Ms Fukuda said about 80 per cent of the world's gold went into jewellery, so this would be the focus of the marketing effort. Council members have agreed to fund the Dollars 55m campaign by doubling their membership fees.

The council has hired Wolff Olins as its brand consultant, Bartle Bogle Hegarty as its advertising agency and Edelman Public Relations Worldwide as its PR consultant.

Some advertisements will start running in the US, the UK and Italy next month, but the campaign will intensify in the third and fourth quarters of this year.

Netking

(05/11/2001; 02:46:40 MDT - Msg ID: 53396)

Clinton media "red out"

http://dailynews.muzi.com/ll/english/1069952.shtmlExcerpt: "...Strains" in the US-China relationship have prompted the Chinese leadership to throw a news blackout over Clinton's visit with no coverage of Clinton's arrival in the country in the Chinese media.

Few people on Shanghai's streets knew the former US president had touched down on the mainland.

Clinton's talks with President Jiang Zemin in Hong Kong Wednesday were also played down in the Chinese media, which carried no pictures of the event and only a few lines saying the meeting had taken place..."
------------------------------------------------------------
The "stress" really began with the revelation that the Chinese had breached security at the Los Alamos nuclear weapons plant and the fact that the Chinese had funneled money into the democratic presidnetial campaign in 1996 and it hasn't stopped since. To date China has nearly 300 missiles capable of threatening Taiwan, I say sell 'em the Aegis class destroyers.

Netking

(05/11/2001; 03:42:55 MDT - Msg ID: 53397)

Greenspan in . . . .Charge!

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/willettalway051101.htmlBeyond a shadow of a doubt, that the Fed will cut interest rates on, or before, the FOMC meeting on May 15. Perhaps more importantly, the jobs report hardened the belief that this economy will soon turn around because the historical parallels are now backing the bull. As an example, on the front page of Bloomberg on Friday an article read "Stocks in U.S. Gain as Jobs Report Fails to Dent Profit Optimism." Within the article read:

"During the last recession, the economy bottomed in the fourth quarter of 1990, when U.S. gross domestic product fell by 3.2 percent. Unemployment didn't peak until June 1992, when the jobless rate touched 7.8 percent.
In the 18 months from the bottom of the recession through the peak of unemployment, the S&P 500 posted an annualized return of 19 percent."

It is these types of historical accounts that fuel the popular adages such as 'don't fight the Fed', 'buy the dips', and 'hold for the long term'. In sum, the belief that the 'worst is over' was present last Monday, and remained the overriding theme until Friday. As for the Bloomberg perspective, the comparisons to today are chosen carefully.

Saxulum^

(05/11/2001; 04:03:30 MDT - Msg ID: 53398)

Black Blade msg# 53393 Confidence Dilemma - API or EIA?

Black Blade msg# 53393
Confidence Dilemma - API or EIA?

FWIW
In the Netherlands gasoline prices at the pump have just reached an all time high.
One of the reasons according to Royal Dutch Shell, was massive GASOLINE buying from the US.
So it seems US is using the EU refinery capacity as well, driving our already heavy taxed prices through the roof. Great help to keep Euro inflation (and thus interest) high... .?!?

Cheers and Thanks for all yr great input

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/11/2001; 05:26:28 MDT - Msg ID: 53399)

SHIFTY @ # 53395

Sir Shifty,

Thanks for the excerpt (warning)

A new logo called a gold mark will include a circular motif intended to symbolise the sun, and advertisements for the metal will end with the slogan "glow with gold"..."so we are appealing to the emotional and spiritual values associated with gold", says WGC chief executive.

So their idea of spiritual values has to do with is sun worship. If the coin bears the slogan, "In God We Trust", we can be sure that the trusted god to which they alude is Isis.

Hate is love, war is peace, wrong is right, gold is a barbarous relic, silver is plentiful, polytheism is monotheism.

I just couldn't remain silent on this one. No apology for this outburst.

HBM

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/11/2001; 06:13:04 MDT - Msg ID: 53400)

ORO @ # 53394

Sir ORO

It is good to see a little bit of "umph" in your posts. I am not interested in "who", is right or wrong, but I am certainly interest in the opinions and positions of those who put some conviction into their efforts. As for you and TC and FOA, I agree with all three of you some of the time, some of you some of the time, but I would be a fool to agree with any of you all the time. These "upper level disturbances", have been healthy for this forum. Let us all take off the gloves, show some conviction, be willing to make a mistake and admit it later. Let us learn.

May I comment on a portion of your post?

___________________________________

Begin quote

"Fiat - particularly the fiat reserve system created in Bretton Woods, and who's legacy we live with - creates a differential between different size countries. The largest economic unit will have the greatest volumes of bilateral trade, thus in order to avoid many currency conversions, many industries and banks among the trade partners will maintain balances in the large country's currency, while the large country needs only little of its multiple trade partner's currencies on hand, because everyone has the large country's currency. Furthermore, the traders with people of the large country will want to denominate output supply and input provision contracts in the same currency. Thus all countries end up trading predominantly in the currency of the largest economy even for the bulk of trade among themselves. It is the liquidity preference effect."

End of quote
___________________________________

It seems to me that the time will come and is very near when "Mr. Gresham's" law will be enforced. A law that cannot be enforced is not a law. If God made the law it will be enforced. If God did not make the law then our wonderful friend on the forum will have to change his handle.

I know you are busy with your special project and that you are plowing new acreage for us (hard work), but could you please comment upon this, the prospect of the final rejection of the USD due to its bad money nature. I feel that repatriation is just months away and two to three years on the outside. What is called "Big Float" will float no more, as the world knows it.

One other question, please. I have a strong conviction that shared reserve status will not work and smooth transition from the USD to the Euro is not in the cards. Could you please comment on this, maybe not just now but at some point in the future when your gloves are off.

Very respectfully,

HBM

Cavan Man

(05/11/2001; 06:37:47 MDT - Msg ID: 53401)

ECB Rate Cut

I believe their miserly and token .25 had more to do with the situation in Britain (.25 also) where Mr. Blair has called for an early election and is intending upon a full court press to engage the Euro.

Also, I'd guess there will be another FED cut next week. I think Mr. Greenspan's message was "we're not done yet and we need your support". Even as he walks the Trail with us and understands the endgame, he points out to his companions (along the Trail) the necessity of gradual transition so as to keep the US from experiencing too much pain. A wounded US economy will soon recover but there is no intention to inflict mortal damage. That's their game.

Cavan Man

(05/11/2001; 06:39:06 MDT - Msg ID: 53402)

Trail Guide

Sir: "Alan" walks the trail with US, yes?

Leigh

(05/11/2001; 06:43:19 MDT - Msg ID: 53403)

Mr. Greenspan on the Gold Trail

Gee, Cavan Man, I must have MISSED seeing Mr. Greenspan walking the Gold Trail with us! Silly me! Here, let me ask Reg Howe if he's spotted Mr. Greenspan on the Gold Trail. He MUST be in disguise.

Mr Gresham

(05/11/2001; 07:56:29 MDT - Msg ID: 53404)

Bill Murphy text

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/757now, off to read it...

ORO

(05/11/2001; 08:16:02 MDT - Msg ID: 53405)

Gresham - Randy - countertrends

The EU contains counter purposes and counter trends, more so than other organizations, because of the complex mix of traditions and competing political forces. The ECB is a technocratic organization which includes some relatively good economists that seem to be Monetarists and Fisherian classics (what little I know of both schools seems to indicate this). The EU governments are much less responsive to their people than the state houses in the US. The plus side of that is in not pursuing wrong headed policies in the momentary heat of public opinion. The negative side is that the governments of Europe are more attune to their own wishes and fashions than to the people.

The ECB stands in a counter trend to the far left Brussels bureacracy and the member governments. The member governments are acting through the EU system to eliminate competition among themselves while the ECB and EMU is pressing them into the practicalities of competition through lower taxes and more lax regulation, particularly of employment rules and government controlled companies. So far there is no clarity as to who is gaining the upper hand.

Issing does dis the Keynesian approach of attempting a fine tuning of the economy through monetary and fiscal policy, recognizing that even if it were possible it would have never been implemented correctly because of the uncertain nature of the future which the policy makers are to consider. He warns against "political cartels" yet that was the political driving force for forming the EU. Will he ever see his jurisdictional competition actually come about? I think so, but only after cartelization attempts fail because of the time factors: governments must react more quickly to the competitive pressures, more quickly than cartel negotiations can proceed.

My jury is out on which direction we will see prevail.

Issing talks of the mid term purchasing power stability of the Euro as the target of ECB policy. Nice target, but will they be able to do so without economic convulsions? There is no reason to believe its particular targets for CPI and monetary growth are achievable with a consistent "mid term" economic growth. Overall debt to cash flow levels in the EU are far lower than they are in the US, but on the other hand, much US household debt is not intended as borrowing so much as it is a hedge against the dollar.

Some of you may remember my references to "Triffin's dilemma" where the use of a national fiat currency for the reserve functions causes its issuer to fall into perpetual trade deficits. His observation holds for Europe and the Euro as it most obviously did for the US and the dollar in Triffin's time (he wrote of the experience of the 50s). This same observation was repeated often, and loudly, by Rueff and de Gaulle, who talked of it as "deficits without tears". If Europe is to see its currency used as a reserve, displacing some of the dollar's function, then it must experience the same effect of growing trade deficits or let the Euro fall to the level at which the trade deficit disappears. In order for the Euro to grow in international circulation outside its home, expatriate euro must be created (borrowed into existence) abroad and used to buy EU goods, which would raise internal EU prices. If the new borrowing goes to finance purchases from elsewhere, then the Euro would decline in exchange value and could only recover if reabsorbed through subsequent exports out of the EU. During the necessary preliminary period while Euro reserves grow, the Euro would suffer in exchange value as foreign debtors print up fresh Euro which still have no substantial external foreign debt market to absorb supply.

The only way to advance Euro ownership abroad without facing Triffin's dilemma is to have a neutral cash component, an asset -- like gold - which the ECB can buy from its holders around the world in return for printing Euros. Euros would then be an international currency without a geographic and political home. But here is the rub; why would anyone hold Euros rather than the gold itself, and use the gold for trade (including debt and contract denomination)? FOA has put out the answer Eurocratia and Islamic anti-usurers came up with (clear evidence of the presence of monetary boobs in their midst, Randy) which is to try and make debt and contract denominated in gold impossible by government fiat. Meaning that they have the gall to call a system of restrictions on people's judgments "freegold". How is that for dialectics? The concept is sheer intellectual fraud.

Econoclast

(05/11/2001; 08:36:00 MDT - Msg ID: 53406)

Beesting--"...and the majority of taxpayers understood

what is talked about on this forum..."

When I read the above quote, I was hit with a pain of sadness, because a century ago, a large percentage of Americans DID have a much more intimate knowledge of gold and how their monetary system worked. The FED fiat, and gaining its acceptance, was the grand experiment (and a huge success) in the dumbing down of the population.
I sincerely hope for all our descendants sake, that the bull era in government is coming to an end as ORO says.
A major rant about my government is trying to escape my fingers. I'll hit the submit button instead.

Mr Gresham

(05/11/2001; 08:48:45 MDT - Msg ID: 53407)

Oro, HBM

Thanks -- you make it worth showing up for "work" in the morning.

Oro -- So your take admits of tension between EU and ECB goals and powers...only TWT.

"Overall debt to cash flow levels in the EU are far lower than they are in the US, but on the other hand, much US household debt is not intended as borrowing so much as it is a hedge against the dollar."

Good insight; Americans don't even know they're doing it, do they? Debtors and creditors jockeying for advantage, even in their post-NAZ-bubble "sleep". Euro debt will go through the same growth cycle, until it uses up its advantage. I don't think FOA is advertising any everlasting principles here, just relative present advantages (even allowing for some of the weaknesses you point out?).

Re: Triffin (always a good mental warm-up to bring that one back into discussion). It occurs to me that dollar support from Europe (and Asia) might reflect internal power holders in the export industries holding sway over their CBs policies, to support their own earnings over the standard of living of their countrymen. Mercantilism forever, no? Their focused political power outweighs the dispersed influence of the masses. So when does that dam break, if ever? Your take?

HBM -- it seems that Gresham's Law, to the small extent I understand it, HAS been working these past 78 years. Dollar is out there circulating, gold in hiding, due to official governmental decree or action. In freer markets, they would find more proper levels of exchange, and would then circulate more interchangeably. I'm sure Oro could add more dimension to this half-formed thought of mine.

BTW, my handle was formed when I was imagining Y2k bank runs, and wondering if the over-printed $100 bills would trade at a discount once people had drained their accounts, while relatively sparse $1 bills would fetch a premium. Had a long way to go then as a gold newbie...

Goldfly

(05/11/2001; 08:50:06 MDT - Msg ID: 53408)

Leigh...

LOL!
I think that's him over there, disguised as a bear...

or is it a dog?

Seeker of the Grail

(05/11/2001; 09:03:28 MDT - Msg ID: 53409)

BOE Auction?

Dear Sirs,

Would anyone be able to tell me when the date of the next BOE auction please and thanks.

May your chalice overflow,

SOTG

ORO

(05/11/2001; 09:21:44 MDT - Msg ID: 53410)

Gresham, HBM - Gresham's law

For the umpteenth time, here it is in a nut shell:

1. Good money drives out the bad.
Good money is found circulating in daily trade. Denominating contract and debt.
Only small amounts are hoarded.

2. When trading at par, bad money drives out the good till par is broken.
Bad money circulates in daily trade and no good money is seen changing hands in the market place.
Bad money denominates most debt and contract. (My own addition: but for the portion of future income that is to be saved and not re-invested or spent, which is contracted into good money)
Most of the good money is hoarded.

The imposition of par between good money and bad is the work of government. Many a king has put out a chit that says in big letters and pictures "this is gold". When these were discounted to their value as kindling, kings had found tireless entrepreneurs to attempt marketing this sort of money and had given charter to them for that purpose, in return for the crown getting a share of the profit.

Aristotle, in his many posts had relied on the second part of Gresham's law without understanding the first part, and without considering the precondition for "bad money drives out the good" is that they trade at par. Furthermore, neither he nor anyone else here has played with the possibility of multiple good moneys circulating in different places and at different layers of monetary and economic activity, with no par imposed by king nor judge, but by the fact of their being good moneys in the eye of the markets - the people.

CoBra(too)

(05/11/2001; 09:41:24 MDT - Msg ID: 53411)

Seeker - BOE AU Auction

Tuesday May 15 - new series reduced from 25t to 20 tons.

Cheers cb2

PH in LA

(05/11/2001; 09:52:22 MDT - Msg ID: 53412)

Fiat legal tender vs abolishment of futures markets by fiat

"This note is legal tender for all debts public and private"

So sayeth every FRN used in commerce. This is a topic that has been elucidated here at great length... even and especially by ORO himself. Yet he allows himself to become enraged by "the presence of monetary boobs in their midst, which try and make debt and contract denominated in gold impossible by government fiat."

Now, one supposes that any legal system that specifies that gold interest can be settled with any "note (which) is legal tender for all debts public and private" that no contract could be enforced in gold. Does this mean the abolishment of gold as a monetary instrument? Are all gold transactions thereby abolished? All except the futures market, complete with its attendant dishonest over-subscription to control the POG in the face of obvious overprinting of notes. A contradiction which does not seem to enrage ORO at all.

Why accept the abolution of all honest transactions involving gold (the purchase of a house by the tendering of gold, for example) and at the same time lob ICBMs at any "monetary boob" that suggests abolishing the futures trade of paper promises?

ORO, even to this observer's amaturish understanding, in spite of your obviously highly committed and ambitious studies, you have bootstrapped yourself into an extremely illogical position here.

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/11/2001; 10:12:34 MDT - Msg ID: 53413)

Mr Gresham @ # 53407

Sir,

The following was in quotes in your post:

"Overall debt to cash flow levels in the EU are far lower than they are in the US, but on the other hand, much US household debt is not intended as borrowing so much as it is a hedge against the dollar." End of quote.

Were you saying this or are you quoting ORO or someone else? I take exception to the statement no matter who has said it. American households have been borrowing money hand over fist since the 1993 approximate. It has been debt of little purpose other than consumption. Our nation of household borrowers has been borrowing for current consumption, period. They have generally bought the "lie" that inflation is relatively tame. They have been borrowing simply because they want consume that which they have not produced. That has been their motive, period.

The tide is changing of course and some will and have begun to borrow to hedge against inflation. They are feeling it in the "non-core" purchases that they make. These purchases are "big-time". They represent a goodly portion of their disposable income and they are feeling the pinch. I have my own definition of disposable income but should probably call it "spendable cash".

Let us define it now: Spendable cash = Income after taxes and debt service (including principle and interest). Because of the long-term growth in household debt (grew tremendously 1985 - 1989, I think. Then it took off again in 1993 approximate and may just now beginning to subside, though it is too early to tell.

I see strong indications that many are putting up the last of the equity in their personal residences, not to borrow more money but to roll it over into a smaller debt service situation (lower interest and longer term) in order to increase their "spendable cash" over time. This is the last straw for them and when this inflation reality begins to squeeze the little room they have found by mortgaging their homes, i.e. this new "spendable cash" begins to be used up by the climb in monthly "non-core" expenditures. The final state will be borrowing to hedge against inflation the way I did when I was a child. (Circa 1974 thru 1981)

From personal experience I know that when one gets in at this late stage in the liquidation cycle, they will lose all that they have and they will find themselves bankrupt. When this happened to me I spent the next seven years liquidating my debt and living like a pauper. Never again for me.

I fear that we have a different animal today. I doubt that many will live like paupers just to pay what they owe. They will file bankruptcy instead.

Now back to this, "borrowing as a hedge against the dollar". What is the psychology here? It is buying real estate, and other hard assets through debt on the bet that the debt will be paid off with cheaper dollars in the not too distant future. If personal income rises and the debt is fixed, then again we have more "spendable income" assuming taxes do not increase to eat it up.

You do not hear much about borrowing to hedge against inflation like we did in the mid to late '70's. This may be coming in the near future but it is not here yet. When that happens those who get in the game and have no savings and no job guarantees will hit the soup line in short order. We are nearing the end.

It is ludicrous to say that the household debt which has accumulated in the last 7-8 years can be characterized in this way: -..."much US household debt is not intended as borrowing so much as it is a hedge against the dollar."

Very respectfully,

HBM

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/11/2001; 10:47:21 MDT - Msg ID: 53414)

ORO @ # 53410

Sir I believe you missed my point completely.

I was referring to the USD's that are not in circulation. The USD's, which are held in reserve by central banks, will cease to be good for reserve and will be spent. The money will be spent on every imaginable hard asset located in the United States. It will be gotten rid of at the rate at which Germans got rid of the paper Marks. Why will "Big Float" cease to float? Why will the USD be repatriated? The answer is very simple. Before times eternal, the Almighty designed a law to prevent this fiat fraud. He put teeth in the law. The law is called Gresham's Law, simply because it was brought to our attention by John Gresham. The law has its own teeth. The law is defied at peril. The law is immutable because it was established by the One who created the Sun, the object of many worshippers in this world. The One who established the law is the second immutable entity in this discussion.

You seem to put forth that the USD's circulating in our nation are not the same USD's that lie in central bank reserves. If they are different dollars not subject to future spending please explain. Should the US strike new money it will affect the USD's held in reserve by the nations of the world. This is a guarantee. It will mean war with bullets and ICBM'S if the banks are forced to simply write of their USD reserves.

Give me a break. I acknowledge your genius. You could at least acknowledge my common sense.

Respectfully,

HBM

Mr Gresham

(05/11/2001; 11:12:42 MDT - Msg ID: 53415)

Robert Mundell on "Uses and Abuses of Gresham's Law in the History of Money"

http://www.columbia.edu/~ram15/grash.htmlThis looks like a fun read -- I remember pulling it up and almost getting to it two years ago.

After seeing this, maybe I oughta change my name to Theognis (Greek elegiac poet who first expressed G's Law), but I'd want to find out who "his beloved Cyrnus" is first. Also, Aristophanes was in on the story, too, but we already have -- still, I hope -- an "Ari" amongst us.

Mundell: "The correct expression of Gresham's Law is: "cheap money drives out dear, if they exchange for the same price." That proposition is neither trivial nor obvious."

Actually, the more I scan Mundell's paper, the more dangerously pulled in I get. I think this might be the "Read of the Day." He touches on so much about the transition from gold to paper, and has a section titled "The Breaking Point."

Now I'm going to be a good Friday-catch-up worker, and close all my browser windows, and get out of here.

Buena Fe

(05/11/2001; 11:15:17 MDT - Msg ID: 53416)

boom boom

C'mon everyone...........LOOK AT THE T-BONDS........they're gettin smoked! They generally lead these crisises. Greespan can only lower rates as long as he has "favorable perception" in his pocket.........looks to me like he's loosin it........dow crash by May 31st?........any takers.

Auspec.......help me out here.......we're gettin to serious for everyones wellbeing!

ORO

(05/11/2001; 11:19:11 MDT - Msg ID: 53417)

Gresham - of Triffin and merchantilism

The practitioners of mercantilism are more often gilds and unions, as they had supplanted merchants, industrialists, and financiers to great extent in the practice of protecting exports, local manufacture, and "jobs" at everyone else's expense. Merchants, industrialists, and financiers, having already enjoyed protected status can not find further growth in it, and had been pressing for a freeing up of the markets so that they can seek new markets to sell into and buy from - where new advantage may come. Protectionism is only beneficial if it is practiced exclusively for your favor. When over about 1/4 of an economy is "protected", the benefits of protection are lost, since "everyone" has it.

Think of protectionism as a new business idea with a company providing "protectionism" services (through appropriate bribery of officials, infomercials, and PR, etc.). Since economic growth comes from specialization and capital investment, and protectionism is the prevention of specialization by restriction of trade among specialists, it has to be a negative sum game. It confers on its beneficiaries less than the cost to the rest of the people. The first to buy a Protectionism Inc. service package raise prices till they have higher profits, which they must spend or reinvest. Their employees, also seeing that there is no competition to their product, go on strike for a greater slice of the pie, which they get because there are no alternative places for the "protected" industry to get their products. Thus the profits disappear a few years into the future. Consumers see the higher cost of the "protected" goods and some stop using them, while others pay the higher price. The higher prices for the "protected" goods cause expenditures on other items to drop. The still competing industries see their product prices drop, fire workers in order to cut costs, stop investment because of the low returns, and thus complain of "dumping" and "anti competitive" foreign "subsidies, tariffs and regulations". The advantages of subscribing to Protectionism Inc. services become clear and sales are brisk initially as "unprotected" workers help Protectionism Inc.'s PR business for free. But the next group of companies to sign on find that their product prices could not be raised in the proportion that the first one's did, and find that some of their suppliers have done the same, thus raising their costs as well. The first adopter's profits continue to decline as more suppliers jump on the protectionism bandwagon, and their workers demand more pay, and less work time, forcing the "protected" company into lower profits. The return from Protectionism Inc. services falls, the economy goes into recession as prices rise, investment halts, and finally no returns are available at all (this is the first leg of the great depression), and Protectionism Inc. finds revenues falling rapidly, and their own profits gone, they proceed then to go out of business.

At this point, the politically derived advantage most easily recognizable to a corporation now is to be allowed to have imports from plants it builds overseas in order to force its workers to compete. Soon after, other businesses start importing their own products and compete with the formerly protected businesses, relative prices drop, sales grow according to merit, and investment revives together with economic growth. (see Europe during the convergence period when tariffs fell and internal cross border trade in Europe grew 3 fold in the 70s, and another 3 fold in the 80s and 90s -- at least till 97).

In growing economies, where there is no existing business in the first place, protectionism serves to assure higher profits to the investors that are to found the industries - and thus attract investment. These join other companies (both local and foreign) coming in to the emerging market in other industries. People are found to be saving prodigiously because of the high return protected industries offer, and the high prices for their products (essentially they are pushed out of the market for products and into the world of investment). Since other economies try to do the same thing, the international market place becomes crowded with over-investment, and those that enjoy it are the countries where tariffs are low (US).

Profits from export businesses decline as more of the potential labor force in the emerging economy participates, and labor costs rise. Also, the competition in the unprotected markets becomes fierce, and prices fall, and with it profitability. At this point, the emerging markets have matured and further profit for local industry can only come from local consumption growth. However, getting consumption to grow substantially requires prices relative to labor income to drop, which would only happen if the economy dismantles protectionism and allows its weaker companies to go under and their employees to find work in retailing and local distribution. Opposition to this would be fierce by unions and corporations enjoying exclusive charter for their products, but eventually governments will see that the only way to get out of the crissis and strife is to let down protectionist barriers so that competition will drop local prices relative to labor and thus improve everyone's lot (and calm down the stress, not to speak of getting reelected). If they don't do this, like Japan decided, then a short period of high accumulation of foreign assets is followed by a long period of stagnation, as corporations aim to preserve foreign market share by building production outside their home markets (where labor is expensive), after which the local powers may finally come to their senses. We are approaching this today.

The Triffin deficit issue grows with the extent of "protected" growth in emerging markets exports, which had attracted foreign investment in the form of loans denominated in reserve currency, by artificially raising return on investment in the emerging market countries. As with any other cases of artificially motivated investment, the result is over-investment, as high returns of the past turn into negative returns later on. Pressed by the need to repay foreign currency debt, the already low return companies exert a pull on reserve currency supply from its issuer, and their governments support them by assisting in lowering local wages relative to export product prices through currency devaluation. Since the peak in outstanding international loans to Asian emerging markets in 1996-7 at $1.4 trillion, they have come down to $0.6 trillion by the end of 2000, and probably will hit bottom soon at about $0.4-$0.5 trillion about equal to their projected reserves by end 2001. At this point, the dollar should be ready to devalue there, unless oil prices rise while they remain denominated in dollars, which would raise demand for dollar reserves. If oil can be paid for in Euro (or Yen) the Triffin deficit will shift to these countries where industries will hollow out, trade deficits burgeon exponentially, and reserves will be wiped out in under one decade while import price inflation in the US wipes out what little trust the dollar retains at home (much less than people say they have and why empty nester boomers have 3 empty bedrooms and a Rec room stuffed with unused exercise equipment).

ORO

(05/11/2001; 11:34:14 MDT - Msg ID: 53418)

HBM - not Big Float

Sorry not to have touched on this yet, I did not speak of the process of the return of Big Float. I believe you are right, and have said so before. I will eventually get to discussing this in more detail.

I will only note for the moment that the process has started; each EU bank of size has purchased a US bank, Deutche Tel. (part owned by the German gov) just bought a US company, French Company Lyonaise des Aux bought US entertainment, as Bertelsman has been doing for years on end, Daimler bought our lemon producer Chrystler, and much urban US real estate is developed with French and German money. They are buying income producing investment assets, however, and not so much "stuff", indicating that they are not negative on the US economy and the prospects of converting US derived dollar income into Euro.

Seeker of the Grail

(05/11/2001; 11:41:25 MDT - Msg ID: 53419)

CoBra(too)

CoBra(too).....I thank you.

Seeker

Old Yeller

(05/11/2001; 12:12:50 MDT - Msg ID: 53420)

Trouble in bond land

http://www.prudentbear.com/boards/user/non-frames/message.asp?forumid=4&messageid=46308&threadid=46308
Interesting comments on the state of the credit markets and the implications of the ECB flip-flop.

SteveH

(05/11/2001; 12:37:58 MDT - Msg ID: 53421)

Chalk one up for the Gipper! (protecting gold)

You have a right to a firearm
��2001�WorldNetDaily.com

So long as there are idiots out there who are trying to convince people to disarm themselves so they can be maimed or killed by violent criminals, I will fulfill my journalistic duty to remind folks that they don't necessarily have to become a statistic if they don't want to.

You have a constitutional right to own a firearm -- handgun, shotgun, rifle -- if you so choose. And, like all our other rights -- free speech, freedom of religion, the right to avoid self-incrimination -- your right to own a gun cannot be "infringed," taken away, banned, limited, or ignored.

You may not agree with or like Buddhism, Wicca or Islam, but in America you don't have the right to forbid people from observing or practicing those religions.

You may not agree with or like what WorldNetDaily or Rush Limbaugh or Bill Clinton or the New York Times has to say, but you don't have the right to order them to shut down or shut up.

Consequently, you can belong to all the "million mom" or "handgun control" groups you want, but you don't have the right to forbid, limit, or ban persons from buying and owning firearms. It's as much a constitutional right as any other.

Maybe too few people realize this because too few schools provide kids with proper constitutional instruction. I know of and have heard of teachers who badmouth and ridicule the Second Amendment just because they personally don't like guns. Ironically, however, they use their First Amendment right of free speech to trash the Second.

Or maybe it's because too few media pinheads have a clue about the proper constitutional rights and responsibilities of citizens and government alike. I know of lots of journalists who would rather be invited to parties held by anti-liberty minded politicians than remind their readers of their right to own a firearm.

Or maybe it's because too many communities ban or severely restrict access to guns while too many judges and lawmakers let these communities get by with it. I know of lots of local big fish who are of the mind that they should be dictators of their own little domain and should have the right to restrict gun rights (and others) at their leisure or whim.

But whatever the reason, the one irrefutable fact of the matter is this: Americans do now and have always had the right to "keep and bear arms," because our Constitution says we can -- and there isn't a damned thing gun opponents can do about it.

Or rather, there shouldn't be anything they can do about it. Far too many federal, state and local politicians and judges are just as anti-gun, all-controlling and hypocritical about the Constitution and the rights it guarantees we the people.

Oddly, they will let kids view pornography on the Internet but are against letting a 100-pound woman carry a gun in her purse so she can defend herself against a 220-pound male rapist.

My guess is if more lawmakers and judges were attacked, beaten or raped, they'd suddenly "see the wisdom" of the Second Amendment. I'm not advocating that, mind you, but unless you've been in that kind of situation, it's very easy to deny others the right to defend themselves -- especially if you're personally surrounded with a boatload of armed personal bodyguards or cops.

People should understand that while some anti-gun advocates really believe what they are doing is right, their efforts to make sure you're unarmed are inherently more dangerous to you than guns themselves.

Criminals love helpless, hapless victims. Always have, always will; the more helpless, the better.

Consequently, the more gun control laws anti-gunners convince lawmakers to pass and judges to uphold, the more violence and deaths our society will suffer because lawbreaking maniacs don't care much about laws -- against guns or anything else -- in the first place.

The cardinal rule of safety that you should follow is this: You should never let someone who is not responsible for you determine what's best for your personal safety.

Also, even if you don't like guns you shouldn't be willing to accept limitations or bans on them because sooner or later, somebody will get around to limiting or banning other constitutional rights you do "approve" of.

If anti-gun proponents want to disarm themselves, tell everyone they see that they're disarmed and post a sign in their front yard that says, "Don't worry -- I don't have a gun," that's their business. And their right.

But if any group or politician seeks to infringe upon, limit or ban the "right to keep and bear arms," remind them they have no "right" to do so. You can use your First Amendment right of government redress to do the reminding, as well as your constitutional right to vote.

Jon E. Dougherty is a staff reporter and columnist for WorldNetDaily, and author of the special report, "Election 2000: How the Military Vote Was Suppressed."

turbohawg

(05/11/2001; 13:07:17 MDT - Msg ID: 53422)

U.S. to Abandon Crackdown on Tax Havens

http://washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/politics/A12242-2001May10.htmlThis Harry Browne voter is discovering that he may have underestimated W.
-------------

The Bush administration plans to curtail an international effort to crack down on tax havens, reversing an initiative backed by the Clinton administration in part because of concerns the effort would lead to higher domestic taxes.

The reversal of U.S. policy is another disappointment for European allies distraught over the new administration's rejection of the Kyoto treaty on global warming and its doubts about the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty.

Barbara Angus, a Treasury Department international tax official, told representatives of the 30-nation Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development that the United States was no longer interested in cooperating on key elements of the OECD's "Harmful Tax Competition" initiative, officials said. Though the American officials say the United States will participate in a more limited effort, U.S. officials acknowledged privately that their move essentially guts the effort.

"The United States does not support efforts to dictate to any country what its own tax rates or tax system should be, and will not participate in any initiative to harmonize world tax systems," Treasury Secretary Paul H. O'Neill said in a statement.

...

ORO

(05/11/2001; 13:51:30 MDT - Msg ID: 53423)

PH in LA - golden tenders and chickens

The thing that I enthusiastically speak of abolishing is the FRN - legal tender for me would be the commonly accepted monetary instruments of the time - whatever is used for money in the marketplace, be it mortadella sausage or MSFT stock would be legal tender. In a gold standard world gold specie (coin) is the legal tender that a court may dictate for payment if the contracted items of trade are no longer agreed upon by the parties that came to court, or are not practicably available. Government then must accept gold specie in payment of taxes, and it may choose to accept other items in payment of taxes at whatever exchange rate it finds attractive.

There would be no note on which is written "This note is legal tender for all debts public and private". It is the central bank and the currency that I wish to abolish. Both exist by fiat alone.

The paper gold substitutes are fine so far as they are accepted by people willingly rather than by government command or by government sponsorship/subsidy of the issuers.

The inflation of paper gold you see today is a result of central banks providing gold as lenders of last resort at an artificially low rate of interest. In the mere existence of the government sponsored central bank you have the cause of paper gold inflation and the dilution of gold values.

Had central banks not stood at the market's edge with a promise of lending gold to anyone who gets stuck owing it at a rate of less than 1%, gold borrowers would not have leased it and not have sold it into the market, and paper gold holders would have checked carefully whether their counterparts could actually deliver. Furthermore, they could have set interest rates according to their own estimate of risks to delivery rather than at the rates in which gold is available from central banks.

But nature provides a cure for this disease of central banking - "moral hazard", it punishes the central banks by having them choose between honoring promises to lend and sell gold, or seeing the bullion banks and speculators go under engulfed in flames of scandal. Given that central banks are not happy to admit to the error till it is too late to fix it, they will sell gold into the market, and continue to lease gold to bad credits. The gold will then reach the market and no longer be available to the central banks in the future. Once gold is out of their hands, the central banks would not be able to subsidize gold lending and back paper gold. At that time, the markets would be free to adopt gold for monetary purposes - if they like, and the markets historically have liked gold as money - without fear of central banks dumping their metal, lending it, or otherwise disturbing trade in gold.

ORO

(05/11/2001; 14:15:51 MDT - Msg ID: 53424)

turbohawg - good news

The OECD anti tax haven idea, a joint US Dems and Eurocrat attempt at forming an international tax cartel to eliminate "tax competition" - i.e. to end the possibility of people moving business out of high tax no service countries to low tax high service countries - is part of the global trend of established old Western governments trying to hold on to their revenue and limit their liabilities (entitlements to their own people and to their bond holders) in the face of competition from other governments offering high service, low taxes and a growing wealth of industrial, technical, and cultural advantages.

The split between government and banking has broadened and deepened to include industrialists and even a modicum of public support, and outright denounciations by central bankers of government spending, regulation, and taxation (which lower a bank's profits when governments are denied the benefits of inflation).

This may be why so many EU businesses are investing in the US rather than within the EU.

Trail Guide

(05/11/2001; 14:32:34 MDT - Msg ID: 53425)

Of ORO's World

Hello again. I'll try to address several posters with this.
More comments on our current discussion, proceeding from my #53314.

ORO (5/9/01; 12:53:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 53296)
--------If Europe continues to expand and deepen regulation (as it has of late) while the US simplifies and thins regulation, the advantage would play in the favor of US industries despite higher dollar exchange rates.-------

Of ORO's world:
All of his conclusions above the closing (that statement is printed above) are based on the ongoing dollar reserve system as we have known it over several decades (even further back). Included during that time are all the excesses and faults dumped on the fiat money world by our nation making the best of it's dollar dominance. Also, included in that period were all the defensive plays
taken by other nation states. To be sure, those plays were also filled with excesses and faults, but what else do we expect from political societies.

The ongoing over taxation, deficit spending, fiat inflation, deficit trade balances and mismanagement of private economies has always been with us. Yes, under different names and different degrees, that's true, but no recent period in money history, gold or not, was without an ongoing effort to cheat the system. It was always in a process of decay, no matter what the books tell you. To think otherwise is to disclaim humans as they are.

How often have we heard that some special "hard school of thought" has all this terrible process documented and neatly explains where it all went wrong? Then, goes on to show us how to set it all up again so as to start over on the right foot.

So, trying to present the society as a whole, as "the awful, all controlling big government" on one side and the "good private economy on the other side" argues the lesser side of the larger issue;
-----hard money policy cannot work for long in a credit based system----!

It makes absolutely no difference if we are even on a 100% gold use money system, if we as a society engage in credit
commerce, we will break links with gold.

Consider:

I borrow 100oz of money gold from ten people so as to spend that gold doing commerce business. The hard money theory has us thinking that if I fail and cannot pay back the gold, this little portion of the money supply contracts. Thereby the gold system is perfect, as it slows the economic excess.
This is a minor example of gold banking. On a tiny scale. It works, as long as we don't act out our motions in a political way.

Conversely, if gold was not part of a banking,,,,, credit,,,,, lending system,,,, rather it is just a tradable, non-lendable non- official money asset,,,,, then those ten people would have given me their gold and became part owners in my (ours now) enterprise.
When it fails, our gold money is gone and no credit contract is lost in the process. Society at large will not come to our collective defense, no matter the scale of the loss. You see, we lost our assets, not society's official money!

The difference:

When gold is lent,,,,, when it's part of the banking system,,,,, when it becomes the object of a credit contract,,,,,, this whole hard money system falls into political RISK! No matter how perfect the "schools" have show this to work, in real life, political risk degrades our perfect credit money. This is the gray area that's not ironed out because we cannot iron out society's emotions. Let's see:

In the above, the ten people I borrowed gold from would be holding my IOUs for that 100 ounces. Be they private citizens, banks or corporations they have effectively lost their gold money. The very money of the nation state!

Rather than see their losses made final, and cause harm, they partition the government to intervene by recognizing those money (gold) loans as good on the books. Further, the government is asked to lend some of it's gold (collected through taxes) to me to extend my business life. I continue to function in a small way as I pay on those gold (money) loans. Further, those loans (held by ten lenders) become marketable as they become seasoned. Then, at a discount to their face value, they can be sold or kept as collateral assets. Over time, this is the political risk that seeps into any hard money system. Over time, even a gold credit system is expanded,,,,,, inflated,,,,,, until outright fiat
must come into play.

It never starts out as "big corrupt government and their awful bankers" controlling the "good honest people",,,,,, rather,,,,, it's when a large enough segment of the "good honest people" are threatened with losing enough (gold) money that it could take down the economy,,,,,, they demand (elect into office) that their government and therefore bankers, expand the (gold) credit enough so as to slow
the fall.

Further,

Now, if this remained on such a tiny scale as the above ten, nothing politically would change. But, modern economic structure is never on such a little scale. This is why I say "we are them"! Many are indignant that they be placed in such company and proclaim they would never be part of such
fraud. Well, that is the very nature that splits the society into the same half's ORO sees today.

His closing statement comes at the tail end of a drama that was played out over decades. His small slice of context completely excludes how the USA dollar,,,, gold,,,,, reserve system was parlayed into a cost advantage that will not exist once the dollar falls. We will be the ones,,,,,,, much more so than Europe,,,,,, who ""expand and deepen regulation"" as our "advantage falls away"!

PH, I want to comment on your posts and will do so next. Be back as able. (smile)

TrailGuide

Mr Gresham

(05/11/2001; 14:38:05 MDT - Msg ID: 53426)

Doug Noland -- Credit Bubble Bulletin

http://www.prudentbear.com/credit.htm"The Power of Money" -- read this one before today's comes up (yes, you can always read it as archived there). A lot about our question "What is money". Spend some time mentally walking through the tides that are likely to sweep over us...

R Powell

(05/11/2001; 14:48:34 MDT - Msg ID: 53428)

O fer day

Don't shoot the messanger but I have to report that we were shutout today.
POG down, XAU down and lease rtaes also down. Almost all markets rise and fall or fall and rise whether advancing or declining. I don't think one bad day reverses the overall direction of the precious metals sector. A downtrend is also not unexpected as today was the last trading day for June gold and silver options. There is news from GATA and I'll post the link shortly. Enjoy the weekend!
Rich

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/11/2001; 14:48:42 MDT - Msg ID: 53429)

Keep diggin' that grave, partner...

--- "In the mere existence of the government sponsored central bank you have the cause of paper gold inflation and the dilution of gold values.

Had central banks not stood at the market's edge with a promise of lending gold to anyone who gets stuck owing it at a rate of less than 1%, gold borrowers would not have leased it and not have sold it into the market, and paper gold holders would have checked carefully whether their counterparts could actually deliver."----

You wanna hang your hat on that, ORO???

And just as surely, J.P. Morgan sat idly by on this thumbs when there was no Federal Reserve to provide crisis-era liquidity. Not.

And just as surely, we have recently seen this latter admirable trait in individual investors checking carefully whether their dot.com purchases where sound investments and could actually deliver value. Not.

Methinks your optimism runs too high, my friend, or your pessimism runs too deep. But keep shovelling....we'll surely uncover something. Maybe gold!!

Beowulf

(05/11/2001; 14:52:12 MDT - Msg ID: 53430)

Gold funds shining above the rest!

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7BFD69FC24%2D4C57%2D4C48%2DA288%2D8D69122F6913%7DGold funds shining above the rest
By Craig Tolliver, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 3:45 PM ET May 11, 2001

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Like a phoenix rising from the ashes, gold funds have flown to the top of this year's performance charts, returning 15 percent so far in 2001, Lipper Inc. said Friday.

-Beowulf: Anyway I posted this because of the following sentence that caught my attention.

The supply pinch anticipated in recent days reflects how troubled Australian miner Centaur (CTRL: news, msgs, alerts) may be forced to cover a short position on 1.6 million ounces, Cho said.

This could substantially tighten supply and boost demand over the short term'she said.

-Beowulf: So now Centaur is short 1.6 million ounces? Can anyone verify this info?

R Powell

(05/11/2001; 14:52:42 MDT - Msg ID: 53431)

GATA

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/758 I don't know if this has been reported yet or not. It prints out at five pages so check the ink supply in the printer! Hope I got the link right.
Rich

Peter Asher

(05/11/2001; 15:15:00 MDT - Msg ID: 53432)

Trail Guide (05/11/01; 14:32:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 53425)

Re your A,) I borrow 100oz of money gold from ten people so as to spend that gold doing commerce business. The hard money theory has us
thinking that if I fail and cannot pay back the gold, this little portion of the money supply contracts. Thereby the gold system is
perfect, as it slows the economic excess.
This is a minor example of gold banking. On a tiny scale. It works, as long as we don't act out our motions in a political way.

& B) Conversely, if gold was not part of a banking,,,,, credit,,,,, lending system,,,, rather it is just a tradable, non-lendable non- official
money asset,,,,, then those ten people would have given me their gold and became part owners in my (ours now) enterprise.
When it fails, our gold money is gone and no credit contract is lost in the process. Society at large will not come to our collective
defense, no matter the scale of the loss. You see, we lost our assets, not society's official money!

Seems that A)_ is lending money and B) is either issuing a bond or stock.

megatron

(05/11/2001; 15:15:42 MDT - Msg ID: 53433)

YES YES YES!!!! Save the Tax Havens!!!!

I knew it! There was a normal person in government somewhere
and his name is Paul O'Neal. He undid what those ruthless human garbage under the KlintlerFurh subjected the world to.
I hope their mothers hate them.

Chris Powell

(05/11/2001; 15:46:51 MDT - Msg ID: 53434)

"Huge success" for GATA African Gold Summit

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/759A report from GATA Chairman Bill
Murphy in Durban, South Africa.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Camel

(05/11/2001; 16:32:12 MDT - Msg ID: 53435)

Gas injection rates.

Thanks for the info Black Blade. Your oil and gas commentary is about the best on the web. I've been hearing rumblings about a respectable size build in the stocks of natuaral gas, which if true would probably change the equation for the doomsday scenario for this winter that a lot of people(including myself) have been predicting. I don't really know enough about the subject to judge how much is sufficiant, except that I have heard the numbers are approching the average for the last few years. True or not?

Speaking of experiance, I was wondering if VP Cheney had any experiance in the oil and gas industry when he took over at Haliburton. Have allways been curious about that.Course that initial presentation on energy he made was shamefully incompetant given all that we have learned from Campbell et al over the last few years. I agree an all out drilling effort is necessary, but if Cambells numbers are right there is an urgent need to develop fuel efficiant cars. Bush at least has tried to set things back on the right track, but I personally heard Bush redicule Gores proposal to develop the hybrid vehicle. Heard it with my own ears. Not only did he redicule it it was painfully obvious at the time he didn't even know what one was. Shameful!

I often wonder if all you Reagan lovers aren't actually in love with that Noonan woman, or who ever it was that wrote his speaches. My favorite line of his was from one of his State of the Union messages where he quoted Lao Tsu, "Ruling a Great Country is Like Cooking a Small Fish", meaning, don't over do it. Course Reagan had no more heard Lao Tsu than Bush had heard of the hybrid vehicle, it was Noonan who wrote the speech.

About the only one of the old Holy Books that I still read is the I Ching. I allready know the Bible ,or at least have the general idea, and I don't see much point in reading it over and over again. The I Ching on the other hand allways seems to offer something new.ANOTHER in one of his messages once used an image that is similar to one from the I Ching and I was curious if he had ever studied it. Course so many of those images are Universal in that they draw much from the world of nature and the older agrarian societies that they surely would appear in many cultures.

Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD

(05/11/2001; 16:42:39 MDT - Msg ID: 53436)

Hard assets... easy access.

Good ole' Ben Franklin says, "Experience keeps a dear school, yet a fool will learn in no other."

Isn't that what this Forum is all about? I have learned over many years of counselling people from all walks of life that the cost of preparation does not have to be the better part of ones assets, nor does it have to be the commitment of a lifetime. But the peace of mind which attends such preparation puts a smile on the face, confidence in the step, and a quiet, settled disposition. ---MK (5/9/2001)

Start your weekend on the right foot.by securing a quantity of gold bought within arm's reach of 22-year low prices. Choose daily from our regular assortment of pre-1933s or gold bullion. Also be advised, the small assortment of Queen Victoria Gold Sovereigns are selling well, both online and by phone. If you'd like to round out your gold portfolio with the "spice of life" (variety), then you'll want to act on these without undue delay while supplies last. We have had entire caches of coins in the past claimed by a single large buyer. So, to you we say, "Take one or take them all!" It is always our pleasure to be your friend and partner in the gold business.

TOLL FREE PHONE

(US) 800-869-5115
(Can) 1-800-294-9462
(Aus) 0011-800-2761-2761
(EU) 00-800-2760-2760

Please Remember: It is your purchase from Centennial Precious Metals / USAGOLD that nourishes these pages.

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/11/2001; 16:50:24 MDT - Msg ID: 53437)

Steep learning curve on that!

Meanwhile...

The Federal Reserve added $3.5 billion in temporary reserves to the banking system today through 6-day repurchase agreements. Fed funds were trading below the target rate.

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/11/2001; 16:56:56 MDT - Msg ID: 53438)

Interesting phrasing on this Bridge News report from China

Hong Kong, May 11 (BridgeNews) - The People's Bank of China, the central bank, will issue a new set of gold and silver commemorative coins on May 15, the official Xinhua News Agency said Friday. The set will include three gold coins and two silver coins, that will be the legal currency in China, the report said. The central bank has a monopoly on gold in China.
---------------------
A good time to throw in the reminder that the bigger steps toward gold market liberalization are just days away.

I'll leave you with that thought. Duty calls...

Black Blade

(05/11/2001; 19:17:18 MDT - Msg ID: 53439)

Saxulum and Camel

Saxulum

Your post reminds me of when we last had two major oil shocks in 1973 Arab Oil Embargo, and the Oil Shock of 1979. Tankers in the Atlantic would sometimes turn around in mid shipment and go to either Amsterdam or the US depending on which refiner would pay the higher price for the crude oil. I imagine that the Europeans will not be too happy if we in the US cause the price of petroleum to rise by drawing off supplies to the US. It is bad enough that they are gouged by their governments on petrol taxes. Definitely cause to hedge ones bets with a bit-o-gold insurance.

Camel

Even though NG stocks have risen I would still expect there to be a shortage of NG. First of all, stocks usually begin to rise in the Spring months as it is not too cold or too hot (sorta like Goldilocks and the 3 bears ;-) ). Come this summer there will be as much as 20% more electricity consumed for air conditioning alone. Virtually all new power generating plants and planned power plants are NG-fired. There are at least 275 new plants to be built by the year 2006. It was only a couple of years ago that summer NG production was injected into storage. This is a problem as the "New Economy" requires a lot of energy for computers, server farmer, telephony, internet manufacturing and service industries, etc. So instead of storing NG during the Spring and Summer, more and more is being consumed. You may have noticed that even as though storage has increased some, it is still 30% below the 5 year average levels. This Summer, we could see a lot more consumption and a lot less storage. We may get a slight jump in storage in the Fall, but come Winter we just might get bit.

Now Dick Cheney. He had no experience in petroleum prior to his stint at Halliburton. His position as CEO just might have been a political payoff for favors given when he served under Daddy Bush as Secretary of Defense. However, he is correct about the critical energy situation that we face in the US. Bubba Clinton and Al Bore certainly dropped the ball on energy with misguided wacky environmentalism that could well cost us much more in energy costs (both financially and environmentally) than was necessary. We have fallen behind the production curve and they also locked up public lands from further petroleum exploration and production. Of course when people become uncomfortable (especially Americans), they demand that something - anything be done - they believe that abundant cheap energy is a guaranteed right. Now we have our backs to the wall as far as energy is concerned. The Market Miracle of the 1990's Bull Market was fueled in no uncertain terms by the abundant supply of cheap energy. That expansion of course required that even more energy be made available for even more growth. That is where I think (and hope) that Dick Cheney as the CEO of Halliburton may have learned that a vigorous petroleum exploration and production program must be initiated in order to either continue to fuel future growth, or prepare for what I believe to be the inevitable economic collapse as the costs of energy are likely to never see the low prices of the 1990's ever again (barring the discovery of cold fusion perhaps). Reason number one why I buy gold, silver and undervalued energy shares.

Hybrid vehicles. Might be OK for those in urban settings, however, I would need the power train to get into rough terrain and to make quick repairs in desolate areas. However, it would be difficult to encourage over 200 million Americans to pony up several thousand dollars apiece to purchase a new vehicle, just as unlikely is to encourage everyone to junk their appliances and computers and to pony up even more to buy green energy saving devices. This is especially true of former "New Economy" and "dot.com" investors. At this point it is a tough sell as many hope to just remain employed. Hybrid vehicles will take several years to cycle through and replace the vehicles currently on the road.

Peggy Noonan? She was one of Ronny's speech writers. Now she writes editorials for the Wall Street Journal. BTW, did you know that Ben Stein of Comedy Central TV was one of Richard Nixon's speech writers? Now he has a TV show where you can supposedly win his money. Hmmm...

I don't read religious texts very much. Just not my thing. However, I am currently reading The Seven Military Classics of Ancient China translated by Ralph Sawyer and Mei-Chun Sawyer. I am reading the first book - T'ai Kung's Six Secret Teachings. It is purportedly T'ai Kung's political advice and tactical instructions to Kings Wen and Wu of the Chou Dynasty in the eleventh century BC. I am also reading Miguel De Cervantes Don Quijote de la Mancha (vol. 1) in the original Classical Castellano. It has a better feel for the almost dry humor than in the English version. My friends say that I'm a sick man. I just have the philosophy that if one does not at least learn one thing new each day, then that day has been wasted. That is why I come here and let Trail Guide, ORO, and even the Stranger twist my brain now and then ;-)

Cheers!

- Black Blade

R Powell

(05/11/2001; 20:07:37 MDT - Msg ID: 53440)

Beowulf

Centaur's 1.61 million ounce hedge book I believe if 12 troy ounces make a pound, then 1.6 million ounces is about 66.5 tons.

Thursday, May 10 3:46 PM SGT

Gold Market Keeps Eye On Australia's Centaur Mining Hedge
SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Immediate short covering by Australian gold miner Centaur Mining & Exploration Ltd. (A.CTR) to close its hedge books could give gold prices a short boost but wouldn't sustain a rally, dealers told Dow Jones Newswires Thursday.
Although news of the beleaguered miner's position sent gold prices up by around US$5 a troy ounce in New York trade Wednesday, the rise petered out in Asian trade Thursday as the market sat back and took a closer look.

The market now believes Centaur's short position isn't substantial enough to trigger a sharp ascent and that it would also depend on how soon it chose to close its positions.

"Who in their right mind would buy 1 million ounces at once?" asked a Sydney-based dealer.

According to Centaur's report for the quarter ended December 31, 2000, the company has hedged a total of 1.61 million ounces of gold at an average price of A$423 a troy ounce from 2000-01 to 2008-09.

"That's not an insignificant amount and could tighten the position in the market," said John Macdonald, a mining analyst with CIBC World Markets.

But it would depend on the market conditions when the company closes its books, which in turn depends on who would be responsible for that, he said.

Receivers, for instance, could be less amenable to any exposure, while counterparty hedges would want to liquidate at better prices, he said.

U.S. bondholders appointed PricewaterhouseCooper receivers in March in a bid to recover a US$225 million debt from Centaur. Centaur itself appointed administrators the day before, which in Australia gives an insolvent or near-insolvent company breathing space to deal with its financial difficulties.

Centaur's creditors are set to meet Monday in Perth, and could put the company into liquidation.

Despite initial excitement during early Sydney trade Thursday that gold could test US$272/oz should Centaur liquidate, some other participants said Wednesday's rally was mainly due to technical factors.

"There was mainly buying from funds between London and New York, and not related to Centaur, which triggered stops at US$267-US$268/oz," said another Sydney-based dealer.

A third Sydney-based dealer concurred, adding the talk on Centaur could have been spread by those trying to tempt funds to cover.

Joseph Gutnick, Centaur's chairman and managing director, couldn't be reached for a comment. Neither could administrators or receivers.

At 0742 GMT Thursday, spot gold was quoted at US$269.40/oz, down from US$269.90/oz in New York late Wednesday.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tree in the Forest

(05/11/2001; 20:34:41 MDT - Msg ID: 53441)

Randy

In reading over your last post to me, I find only one major thing which you said that I disagree with. This may surprise you but it is where you said that banks do not charge income tax. While they do not charge this directly, I believe that the income tax was very much inspired by the banking system in particular the inauguration of the Federal Reserve. It is no accident that the income tax followed close on the heels of the Fed. The Fed is a private, primarily European banking cartel and the owners of the Fed (and all banks) make money by giving loans. It is the interest on these loans that generate their income.

I knew several individuals, doctors and architects, who subsequently went into the banking business. I could never figure out why they would seemingly abandon their "calling" to run a bank. It is only in the last several years that I have learned the explanation for their actions; banks print money! The largest conglomerates in the world have banks at their center and this is no accident. Banks print money!

You have to see this through a greedy banker's eyes; pretend for a moment that I am a greedy banker. I love money! And I always want more. Once I understand how banks make money through loans, it becomes obvious that in order for me to make even more money, I must make more loans. But a problem arises: when I print money to make the loans, it causes inflation. How to solve this? Well I could make fewer loans, but then my income drops so that's unacceptable. I know. How about this: I'll make more and more loans and become very rich and to solve the inflation problem, I'll use my influence (and my money) in the American congress to pass a tax that will force people to give back some of their money. Now I can make as many loans as I like and just mop up the excess liquidity through taxation. And my "friends" in congress can get re-elected by using the same system to spread the patronage around. The excess liquidity is taxed back preventing inflation. So my friends and I are now very happy. We're awash in money!

As you can see bankers and the congress support this income tax because it works very much to their benefit allowing them to pursue their goals, and still hold the system together. This income tax was inspired by and supported by the Rockefellers, members of the Fed through Chase. They worked hard to insure that they had sufficent means to avoid the resultant taxation through trusts, foundations and other tax loopholes. Ignore what you read in the press and Forbes about the wealthiest people in the world. The wealthiest people in the world keep a very low profile and will never be listed in the Forbes 400 or whatever. They are fabulously wealthy, probably trillionaires. Their tax burden is undoubtedly miniscule compared to their wealth. Good people have trouble seeing how some can be so greedy and selfish. But these people exist. And the rest of us pay an unjust and "non-constitutional" income tax to help them get richer. If you have not already done so, please review the legal underpinnings of the Fed and IRS in my post of April 22 #52341. Good night Randy and thank you to all who read my posts.

Canuck

(05/11/2001; 21:09:41 MDT - Msg ID: 53442)

Did I just see a little yellow window?

Canuck

(05/11/2001; 21:11:13 MDT - Msg ID: 53443)

http://www.sharelynx.net/Photos/Gold/PMCityGold.jpg

Canuck

(05/11/2001; 21:12:40 MDT - Msg ID: 53444)

Canuck

CanuckCanuck

Canuck

(05/11/2001; 21:14:16 MDT - Msg ID: 53445)

Test

TestingLast 4 posts (including this one) were tests.

Bonedaddy

(05/11/2001; 21:42:29 MDT - Msg ID: 53446)

Ground Zero in the NG arena.

Black Blade, it is good to see that you are still posting your erudite energy commentary. I have been too busy
throwing dirt in the air to visit the table much in the last few months. I'd like to offer a few tidbits on where it looks like natural gas is going for the 2001-2002 heating season.
The conventional wisdom is that enough new production is comming on line and enough new pipe is being laid to meet the higher demand. The price projections I am hearing from some very astute marketing types place NG in the mid $3-$4 dollar range for the next twelve months.
However, the progress that gets reported to management is often beyond "best case scenario". What I see happening in the Powder River Basin is that most of the work is actually a couple of months behind schedule. The single biggest hold up is the lack of water discharge permits for CBM wells in the Campbell-Johnson County areas. There are alot of folks with a dog in that fight, so I won't go into it right now, but producers are going to have a tough time meeting projected production numbers. The other hold up is construction. A big inch line from Natural Bridge to the Cheyenne hub was supposed to begin construction in May and complete in November. This line is the key to the door out of the basin. Until it is completed, there is now where for new production to go. The offical word is that all is well and right on schedule for November line pack. But, so far nobody is clearing ROW and May is half over. The tough thing about large diameter gas pipe is that it is so slow to weld. It takes two welders to make each butt weld and the pipe must stay heated between each pass or the welds can crack. From what I've seen, five months to build 130 miles of 30 inch is pretty optimistic. If every thing goes well, a good contractor can do it. If you get a good old Wyoming winter, beginning in October like last year, there is a risk of welds cooling down too fast and cracking. Repairs can really add up. X-ray also takes a lot longer on big pipe because it is so darn thick. The last major hurdle before start-up is hydrotesting. 30 inch probably holds about 20 gallons of water per linear foot. 100,000 gallons of water per mile more or less. You my friend, have no doubt worked with water in Wyoming/Montana winters.
So, officially every thing is fine and that information is what the marketers use to determine both gas price and basis for transportation rates.
It's kinda like John Wayne said in Rio Bravo, "If anything goes wrong... your fault,.... my fault,.... nobody's fault,.... I'm gonna blow a hole in you I can read a newspaper through."

(05/11/2001; 22:17:14 MDT - Msg ID: 53447)

Trail Guide

Trail Guide writes:

Begin Quote

I borrow 100oz of money gold from ten people so as to spend that gold doing commerce business. The hard money theory has us thinking that if I fail and cannot pay back the gold, this little portion of the money supply contracts. Thereby the gold system is perfect, as it slows the economic excess.
This is a minor example of gold banking. On a tiny scale. It works, as long as we don't act out our motions in a political way.

Conversely, if gold was not part of a banking,,,,, credit,,,,, lending system,,,, rather it is just a tradable, non-lendable non-official money asset,,,,, then those ten people would have given me their gold and became part owners in my (ours now) enterprise.

End Quote

The second case would be acceptable if I, as a lender (or owner, if you like) could make claims against the remaining assets of the failed business, as a lender/owner. However that gate is closed since, that would be "enforcement of collateral attachment anytime physical gold is traded, lent or involved in a trade", and forbidden by international law. Wouldn't gold be useless under such a law?

There is another danger namely; a vast business potential is created for mafia: Gold loans made under special contracts, fees paid to mafia for every contract signed and and private gold contract enforcement agencies flourish.

Black Blade

(05/11/2001; 22:19:26 MDT - Msg ID: 53448)

Bonedaddy

I hear ya! I have been rather busy as well. I closed up my office in Nevada gold country as the mining business has effectively destroyed their own business (forward sales, high-grading, inept management, etc.). Actually I have begun marketing my services for NG in the Powder River Basin (Gillette, Sheridan, and Casper). It looks very positive here. I know that one could not find a drill rig very easy. I have a client who is struggling to find enough rigs and drillers before their leases expire. That is one major bottleneck for NG production. I also have talked to some drillers in the Metals exploration side and they have expressed an interest in getting into the CBM game as well. I talked to one driller/owner who bought his rig 3 years ago. Last year he was 3 times as much by another driller. This year he was offered about 9 times as much. There is very strong demand - but no rigs. I think that NG prices will remain high from here on. There are many NG-fired power plants coming on line over the next few years and that alone should pressure prices further. I guess that we both have interests in the same area of work and investments. Natural resources should do very well for the next several years. The gold price fixing is likely to come unglued as these economic pressures from high energy costs are factored in (squeezed profit margins, inflationary - stagflationary pressures, etc.). Base metals look to do well as infrastructure will need to be upgraded and new infrastructure will need to be added. Times are about to get "interesting." Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/11/2001; 22:28:58 MDT - Msg ID: 53449)

Bonedaddy - again

BTW, you mention that X-ray testing is not such a viable method for testing. How about Dye penetrant or Magnetic Particle (Magnaflux) testing on pipe? It is cheaper and yet can be a quick means of checking welds. On the subject of pipelines, Questar (STR) purchased the ARCO oil pipeline that goes from New Mexico to S. California, and they are converting it to a NG pipeline. I think that the California politics is somewhat screwy and that they will get burned as there is a strange tariff imposed by California on "undesirable" NG, even though they desperately need NG. Go figure.

- Black Blade

Netking

(05/11/2001; 22:51:28 MDT - Msg ID: 53450)

Randy @ The Tower

Randy(53438) - Do you have any more details on this PRC coin issue, sizes & content, prices in local currency, number minted & issued etc?

Black Blade

(05/11/2001; 22:51:59 MDT - Msg ID: 53451)

US Energy Secretary Blames OPEC for High Gasoline Prices

http://www.slb.com/ba.cfm?baid=1&storyid=223899
Snippit:

Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham said OPEC was at fault for high fuel prices, conflicting with comments made earlier in the week by Vice President Dick Cheney that a shortage of U.S. refining capacity, not the cartel, has caused gasoline prices to soar.

Black Blade: I'm afraid that Spencer is wrong and Dick is right on this one. The problem isn't so much the supply of oil, OPEC production cuts, or implied threats by certain OPEC members. The problem is the ability to refine and distribute the EPA mandated reformulated fuels that vary in grade and content without any uniform standard from one region to another. Bureaucracy in action and incompetence at the EPA. This does not mean that OPEC is completely out of the picture. They could very well cut production in order to maintain a desirable price for their crude. Who can blame them if they do? The real focus on the energy crisis should be on electricity as that is where the US is most vulnerable. Gasoline standards could be relaxed with the stroke of a pen, electricity is a bit more problematic.

Black Blade

(05/11/2001; 23:08:30 MDT - Msg ID: 53452)

Gold funds shining above the rest

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7BFD69FC24%2D4C57%2D4C48%2DA288%2D8D69122F6913%7D
Snippit:

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Like a phoenix rising from the ashes, gold funds have flown to the top of this year's performance charts, returning 15 percent so far in 2001, Lipper Inc. said Friday.

Black Blade: Gold equities prices usually lead the price of gold itself. This could be positive news.

Black Blade

(05/11/2001; 23:19:12 MDT - Msg ID: 53453)

Got gold? Asia banks haven't got much

http://pacific.bcentral.com/pacific/stories/2001/05/07/daily39.html
Snippit:

Asia central banks have scant gold holdings compared to their total reserve, a World Gold Council meeting in Honolulu has been told. "They're surprisingly low when compared to those of the United States, Europe and the Middle East," says World Gold Council regulatory affairs specialist Dick Ware. He says Asian central banks typically hold 1 to 5 percent of reserves in gold compared to 34 percent in Germany, 41percent in France, 45 percent in Italy and 56 percent in the United States.

Black Blade: If sentiment should change, and Asian central banks decide that gold reserves are preferable to US Treasuries, then the POG would probably rocket higher. The former Japanese finance minister made that suggestion a couple of years ago. Hmmm...

working-kirk

(05/11/2001; 23:32:42 MDT - Msg ID: 53454)

interest rates cuts

As you might have noticed, a lot of people are hoping for a
rate cut next week. One of the claims is a rate cut is anti-inflationary. Can someone explain to a simple working
man how a rate cut is anti-inflationary?

ORO

(05/11/2001; 23:37:00 MDT - Msg ID: 53455)

Randy - JP Morgan was not a CB

What you seem to ignore here is that JP Morgan used his own funds and his own client's money for the purpose of making a profit and avoiding further loss of business if his trade counter parties were to fail and their assets and those of their clients locked up in bankruptcy courts.

Central banks and governments use Other People's Money, without their consent and for both the purpose of imaginary assistance to the financial markets and for the purpose of gaining stature and widening their authority and patronage.

The Abominable Communist Eccles who's name is carved into the Fed building stands as proof final and incontrovertible of the origins and purposes of that institution. These do not include any of the oft stated items of faith regarding its character and function. It was not what it seems today, and its present fiduciaries, however benign, still must contend with the power granted the institution in its charter and the simple fact that such power should never have been bestowed on one organization in any country seeking to enjoy the rich fruit of free trade.

The central bank is entrusted and authorized to do the impossible: make the one single decision that replaces billions of decisions by the whole of a country's people, and to isolate these decisions from those made in other countries. That alone is sufficient to negate any claim of beneficial association between central banks and the financial marketplace.

Journeyman

(05/11/2001; 23:58:19 MDT - Msg ID: 53456)

Regulation & currency controls @Trail Guide (ORO), Randy, Tree, ge, Peter Asher, Mr Gresham, ALL

Must be short!

Hi TG!

Regards more U.S. regulation to compensate for falling dollar: (much more skipped for lack of time)

Because currency controls, in the age of instant electronic transfer & sophisticated fund managers, no longer work (proved originally by Spain about a decade ago and more lately Mahathir of Malaysia, Indonesia, etc.) U.S. will not dare attempt regulations, nor will they work if they are attempted.

ALSO Randy & TG regards corruption of money: 1. It's first and foremost a matter of degree. Central banks turn a scratch into a severed artery as far as dilution of the money supply through fractional reserve lending. Thus while there would be some corruption & dilution in a transactional gold economy, it would simply not be physically possible for it to be as rampant as in a pure megabyte situation where the money supply could simply be doubled or for that matter multiplied by 100 instantaneously. 2. Just because corruption might occur is no reason to quit the field in favor of the greater of two evils, namely pure fiat; Your house may eventually rot and fall to ruin but that's not a good reason to live in a cave!!

Regards,
Journeyman

FredBear

(05/12/2001; 00:15:49 MDT - Msg ID: 53457)

working-kirk (05/11/01; 23:32:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 53454)

interest rate cuts anti-inflationary?

When I discuss inflation with people the first thing I try to expain is if they were to look up the word inflation in the dictionary they would find something like

"an increase in the supply of money RESULTING in higher prices" (emphasis mine).

Then I try to explain that money as we know it today, currency, dollars, federal reserve notes, whatever you want to call it, is a commodity like wheat, corn and soybeans.

We trade the commodity money for other goods and services. We could trade wheat, cattle or gold, but today we trade pieces of paper with pictures of dead guys.

Now, what happens when we produce too much wheat? We have to lower it's PRICE in order to sell it.

The interest rates the Fed controls are the PRICE of the commodity known as money. They are lowering the price making it easier to create more and thereby lowering the VALUE of the commodity. Therefore, by lowering the value, the commodity will trade for a less quantity of other commodities. In other words, it will lose purchasing power.

So as the fed (and the banking system) continues to lower the value of the commodity known as money, the money will trade for less of other commodities, goods and services.

This is inflationary, not anti-inflationary.

My other scenario, to explain the way money is created, is to tell everyone sitting at the table that we are starting our own little community. Before we can do business with ourselves we need a medium of exchange. I take the role of the central bank and loan everyone $100 at 5% per year.

After the first year everyone owes me $105. This is an eye opener as the formerly ignorant now see how money is created, via debt, and that the total debt can never be repaid, except to trade labor for the debt, which some people fear will lead to serfdom.

Some people at the table will be able to repay me in full. Others will have to borrow more. Wait until you see their faces when the revelation hits.

Hope this helps.
View Yesterday's Discussion.

ORO

(05/12/2001; 00:19:12 MDT - Msg ID: 53458)

FOA - NO OFFICIAL MONEY NEED BE DEFINED

FOA, you are missing the point of my disaffection entirely. In my preferred rendition of a monetary system, there is no particular official money, just a legal recognition of a commonly accepted money (and no limitation on it being only one or many, if the markets leave one surviving money � probably gold � fine, if not then two or more are fine). Bankers have no charters, and their liabilities stand on their own. This is not a gold standard unless it turns into one.

Lenders and equity investors do not have the expectations you presented. Only bank depositors do, even then only those who think of a bank as a depository and clearing house rather than an investment fund like a money market. For savers interested in a gold vault and clearing service the markets have long known to provide a service with minimal or nearly no risk. For everyone else, who is investor and saver, it is a traditional bank he seeks. No bond holder would ever imagine the promises in hand to be money or a good substitute for it. They are investments, NOT savings. They are a fruit tree owned for the future fruit it is to bear, not dried fruit that will last generations.

You may have come across a Barron's article within the last year where the early days of finance were presented. Upon establishment of state houses and within their first year, they passed bank charters, and the Bank of the United States � a central bank - was opened with a monopoly charter as soon as there was a congress to grant it. Bankers paid good money to politicians in order to obtain these charters nationally and within each state. The charters to a one gave the chartered bank's accounts and notes some degree of "legal tender" status raised towards that of gold and silver. The central bank charter forced all other banks to book the CB's notes without discount as if they were actual coin. Bank credit of the modern sort was a creature of government from day one. It is not that people first had banking and then government came in to bail out the depositors by forcing everyone to accept bank paper instead of gold. It is the other way round, bankers were incredibly cautious when they were not granted any privilege, the few happy go lucky Wild West banks were not at all characteristic of the situation when the central bank was closed down (both the first and second banks of the US did not have their charters renewed).

Your view is of a world in which people start out with groundless expectations to make foolish decisions after which they cry to government to bail them out. That has never been the case. It has always been government that made promises that it could not keep knowing that the people have no alternate government to turn to if the promises are not kept, and it is this same government that gave privileges and subsidy to banks so that they could make promises they could not keep with impunity because all banks were governed by the same rules, leaving customers no choices and little opportunity (and therefore incentive) to practice judgment. The rules were not made to fit the customer's preferences within the confines of the reality, they were set into law in order to frustrate him.

It is central banks that started with political privilege, that made the situation you speak of happen. Is it structured into human society that political representatives be crooks? Is the balance of power between the people and their government fixed in nature so that government can always pull the wool over their people's eyes? Are the people always going to be overwhelmed by government? Will people not learn from their own experience and from history? Has the availability of instantaneous information and thoughts not changed anything?

To take from your example:

In the 100 oz loan, everyone recognized that you took a risk � exchanging specie for paper in the hope of gaining a profit � the interest, say 10%. You yourself would not treat the promissory note as if it were specie. You know that the paper is as good as its signatory and you have no problems with the signatory that can not be compensated for with the interest rate you chose to offer � otherwise you would not have made the loan.

In joining a partnership with the same business and putting in the same 100 oz. You have put the same money at risk in the same business and you hold an equity stake, a fixed portion of its future cash flow � you own an unspecified amount instead of a specified one. Obviously you would do so only if you expected that portion of the future cash flow to provide a return greater than 10% you could obtain from a loan to the same business.

I am sure you are aware of the difference between a loan and equity � in a loan you are participating in the FIRST cash flow of the business. Before the owners pocket anything you will get yours, and if the business goes under, you will have assets for security. In the case of equity, you get whatever portion of the cash flow remains after creditors and expenses are paid. If the business goes under, you have nothing.

If you go and deposit the money in a bank when there is no regulation and no CB, you study the bank's reputation with your bank credit analyst service (SP, Dun and B, Moodys, etc.), perhaps look at the books, you will get a lower interest rate, but your risk is smaller, the bank has over 40% reserves, and it lends the deposit out at 10% to the same business, giving you 4% for a short term account, and 8% if you are willing to take the whole loan term of the business for a bank CD. The bank does not take untoward risks because its credit rating would fall and depositors will either yank money out, or just not come, and it would risk having its paper rejected by other banks. You have an idea of the risk, and the bank does not expect any saviors to bail it out. It knows roughly how much it can get for each of its loans from other banks and investors, and it carefully matches maturations of its liabilities to those of its assets so that no one can push it to liquidate if it does not want to.

Your risk is different but its source is the same, as is the source of the profit from all methods of investment (none of them are savings). Your expectations of reward are adjusted with risk.

Now we come to the chartered bank and the central bank to which government has granted the privilege of having its notes considered as good as gold for other banks, and who's role is to act as a lender of last resort.

Let us now tell the story of moral hazard and credit expansion as they are induced by this CB contraption devised by government:

You want give them the same 100 oz. but you can get only 2% from them, you think this is bad, and does not cover your risk, so you seek out the old acquaintance above to lend him the funds for his business at 10%, but lo and behold, the bank had made him an offer of 8% because the central bank offers an emergency credit facility at 2%, and beside the central bank has all the gold you can imagine and the bank can pay its depositors with central bank notes and send them to the central bank to redeem them in gold. Why? Because the law that created the central bank made it impossible for the bank or for anyone else to refuse payment in CB notes. So where are you now? You can now either top the bank offer with a lower rate, go to the bank and obtain the 2% with assurances of the liquidity of the bank due to its own great name and the fact that the central bank is there to warrantee the bank, or buy an equity stake at 6% current return.
You are still suspicious, so you
1. keep 20 oz. in coin,
2. spend 20 oz. (because prices had gone up since the CB was chartered, you had your eye on this great statue for a while and you heard the sculptor is dying, and you can't get a decent return anyway),
3. lend 20 oz to the business at 7%,
4. buy a 20% equity stake with a current return of 6% because that is what the proprietor is willing to part with because rising prices and brisk business have come his way and he expects the best, and has funding for 80% at 8% and the extra portion he will only part with at a higher price.
5. and deposit 20 oz. at the bank.

The sculptor spends his money, the sum you lent the business goes to the bank, as goes the sum you invested as equity, all awaiting the opportunity to be spent. The bank then lends your 20 oz deposit, and the 40 oz deposit from the business back to the business, which needs these 60 oz. The bank owns the loan, 60 oz at 8%, owes you 20 oz. at 2%, and owes the business 40 oz at 2% till it is spent.

Time goes by and the business finds a competitor who funded his business at 5% from the same bank, which having found no takers left at 8% has started lowering interest rates. The CB is still lending at 2% on its short term facility. The 5% guy had seen the profits on the business and decided to do the same, he spends the loan on facilities and materials, which cause the older business to pay more for those same resources and cause it to pay more rent now that the other business is competing for space. The old business� margins collapse and he is bleeding money as his customers are canceling orders and going to the new business that is cutting prices in order to get himself established. The new business never manages to make a decent buck nor does the new business. Both fail to make their loan payments and the bank takes possession of the businesses and manages to recover 50% of the loans.

You have now lost the 20oz lent to the business, the 20 oz you put into equity, and fearing for the idiotic bank that invested in both businesses, you go to it to withdraw the 20oz, but those 20 oz were not available, and the bank gave you CB notes. You went to the CB to cash the notes just as the CB had lost its last oz of gold to the preceding customers, who had withdrawn the money when they heard of the new businesses popping up everywhere. The CB raised interest rates to 6% in order to get gold back from other banks and promises you will get your money back as soon as the gold comes in. But you are in good shape, you have CB notes, some who came later have only bank accounts, and the bank, having lost so much of its loans is now being pressed with 6% CB rates, which is more than he can cover, so he sells from his loan portfolio at 50% of face value in order to repay the CB the short term borrowings. The CB gets most of them back, but now the bank has negative book value and no CB notes, if things blow over, the remaining loans are going to give 5%-8% and remaining accounts at 2% are ok, the bank would eventually return to positive book. But depositors are already at the door seeking to get their money and others had written checks to deposit the funds at other banks offering 6%. The bank will have to be liquidated because at 6% short term rates, this bank can't get new deposits � it can only offer 2% - it is rapidly losing them. The court (or bank regulator) picks up the bank, settles its liabilities with the proceeds of the liquidation of assets at 50%. Most depositors lost 1/3 of their money, some more. You are lucky because you at least got CB notes, which the CB can now redeem in gold. You now have 40 oz and you come across the business in which both you and the bank put money, and the current owners want out because nothing is working with these low prices since the panic started. You pick up the business for the 40 oz.

Black Blade

(05/12/2001; 00:35:48 MDT - Msg ID: 53459)

Is This a Recession?

http://biz.yahoo.com/st/010511/24205.html
Snippit:

A recession is usually defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth in the gross domestic product. But that definition is only a guideline. The official arbiter of recession is the National Bureau of Economic Research, a nonprofit group of economists. And it usually doesn't weigh in until several months after a recession has started. That's where things get scary. The last such "official" U.S. recession began in July 1990. Months earlier, though, the respected Economic Cycle Research Institute's leading indicators began heading in the wrong direction, causing the firm to accurately predict the coming recession. Indeed, the ECRI has accurately predicted the past three recessions and, more important, has never issued a false alarm.

Black Blade: Every postwar recession has been preceded by an energy crisis. We now have an energy crisis. If the BLS voodoo statistics were discarded and actual data were used we might see that we are now in a recession. Many of these statistical filters that are used to disguise the true state of the economy are relatively new. Many "hedonic deflators" were incorporated in the inflation data calculations during Daddy Bush's administration. Various versions of "seasonality deflators " were incorporated during the last four administrations. These phoney baloney statistical filters will have to be fine tuned further as the economy degrades beyond the point of no return and are increasingly difficult to hide behind contrived data.

working-kirk

(05/12/2001; 00:51:06 MDT - Msg ID: 53460)

interest rate cuts anti-inflationary

Fred Bear
Thank you for your explaination. I suspected rates cuts were inflationary but with are the people yelling for rate cuts and how they were anti-inflationary, I got suckered.
It shows just how easy someone even knowledgeable can fall for The BIG lie. And if knowledgeable people are falling for it, it makes you wonder how people who because they are
under such pressure to make ends meet fall for the lies of newspapers and public schools and government officals. Because of the many BIG lies I wonder if you will see their faces when the revelation hits about inflation. There is a good chance instead of getting revelation people will just become more confused and angry. Just like with the energy
situation. THey don't realize it was the lack of construction in refineries and environment choke laws that lead up to the current problem. So you have many insisting on more or the same

(05/12/2001; 01:22:24 MDT - Msg ID: 53461)

Prohibition of the manufacture, sale, and transportation of alcoholic beverages

http://www.nara.gov/education/cc/prohib.htmlThe illegal production and distribution of liquor, or bootlegging, became rampant, and the national government did not have the means or desire to try to enforce every border, lake, river, and speakeasy in America. In fact, by 1925 in New York City alone there were anywhere from 30,000 to 100,000 speakeasy clubs. The demand for alcohol was outweighing (and out-winning) the demand for sobriety. People found clever ways to evade Prohibition agents. They carried hip flasks, hollowed canes, false books, and the like. While Prohibition assisted the poor factory workers who could not afford liquor, all in all, neither federal nor local authorities would commit the resources necessary to
enforce the Volstead Act. For example, the state of Maryland refused to pass any enforcement issue. Prohibition
made life in America more violent, with open rebellion against the law and organized crime.

Cavan Man

(05/12/2001; 08:20:28 MDT - Msg ID: 53462)

US Tax Cut

GWB is now saying the tax cut can be used to help Americans pay for higher energy costs. Is this desperation in the context of getting the bill he desires or, desperation in the context of "there's not much we can do" in the short/medium term regarding higher energy costs?

The US economy runs on and needs low cost energy sources to maintain momentum.

Elwood

(05/12/2001; 08:22:52 MDT - Msg ID: 53463)

ORO (05/10/01; 22:38:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 53388)

"In order to bring oil back into its relative pricing with competing products (for use as the distilate precursor) you would need bankers and oil companies to expand the oil note supply to the point where the monetary premium was diluted enough so that someone could use it for the purpose that gave it value in the first place. The dilution would bring about the familliar condition of there being waaaay more notes than there is known oil. As oil depletes from use, the leveraged oil note issuers would scramble to find more oil, and would eventually succumb to bankruptcy as there would be none that could be extracted at a cost lower than extraction from competing products. Oil notes would then become worthless."

Is the dollar today nought but an oil note?

Leigh

(05/12/2001; 09:16:33 MDT - Msg ID: 53464)

Hill Billy Mitchell

http://www.wallbuilders.comJust thought I'd tell you about the dinner with Mr. Ashcroft last night. You would have loved it, Hill Billy; in fact, I'm posting this because there are probably a number of people here who would have appreciated seeing this great man in person.

The dinner, sponsored by the Patrick Henry College Development Office, was held at the elegant Willard Hotel in downtown Washington. Mike Farris spoke for a while, we ate our dinner, listened to music, and then Mrs. Ashcroft (a former law professor and a lovely person) introduced her husband. She talked about how they had met in law school many years ago, and you could see a lot of affection and admiration between them. I had been hearing Mr. Ashcroft's name all day yesterday on the radio, and I was afraid he would be all worn out. Actually, he looked cheerful and refreshed. He made some interesting comments you might enjoy reading:

He talked about the words written on the Statue of Liberty: "Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to be free...." He said the words didn't say, "Give me your elites, your wealthy, your cream of the crop." Although alchemists for centuries have tried to turn base metal into gold (he was on topic), it has never been accomplished. However, FREEDOM is the elixir that can turn the most lowly members of society into people with self-respect and a bright future.

He mentioned that he has a three year old grandson to whom he has been reading nursery rhymes and such. As he was reading "Humpty Dumpty" one day, he realized that it could actually be a metaphor for our own country! Humpty Dumpty had a great fall - well, our country has certainly fallen from its bright beginnings. "All the king's horses and all the king's men," why, that means government! "They couldn't put Humpty together again." Message: Government isn't a solution to our problems. It's free people working together with a vision of greatness that will lift us out of the dregs into which we've fallen.

Mr. Ashcroft said that in his spare time he likes to write songs. One day, standing on his farm in Missouri, he saw a bald eagle flying low overhead. He wrote a song about it, which he recited for us last night. In the song the bald eagle stands for America, and though for a while it was endangered, it was now able to fly freely. He said this is the vision he holds for America.

I didn't know much about Mr. Ashcroft before last night, but seeing the sincerity on his face, hearing his reverent, hopeful words, and watching the kindly way he and his wife acted as they met the dinner guests who had come to see them made me realize that this is someone "real." Hill Billy, it would have made you want to burst with pride to be from the same state as this man.

After dinner (around 9:00) we took buses to the Capitol. Last night was warm and balmy, and we were almost the only people in the area of the Capitol at that hour. We had a private tour hosted by David Barton, a scholar who researches America's Christian heritage and who produces fascinating books and videos which contain well-documented anecdotes of the Founding Fathers' strong religious faith (see link above). We had the Capitol almost all to ourselves; only the security officers were around. The Capitol was incredibly beautiful and (at that hour) so quiet and peaceful. We toured until after 11:00 and then took buses back to the Willard Hotel.

I apologize for the long off-topic post!

Cavan Man

(05/12/2001; 09:31:05 MDT - Msg ID: 53465)

Leigh

He is a teriffic guy. The Willard; my, you were in the high cotton last night! A lot of good men are from MO right HBM?

lamprey_65

(05/12/2001; 09:31:52 MDT - Msg ID: 53466)

Gold Weekly

Gold closed higher for the sixth week in a row - and was up strongly during COMEX expiration week and before the Tuesday BOE auction. Gold mining shares continue to be heavily accumulated, even as Wall Street analysts are crowing about the end of the downturn in stocks.

Meanwhile, Greenspan talks of bank risks and (lo and behold) word on the trading floor is that BANKS were doing the buying in the gold pits this week.

Stay tuned.

Cavan Man

(05/12/2001; 09:36:40 MDT - Msg ID: 53467)

Leigh

Thanks for the link.

FredBear

(05/12/2001; 09:39:04 MDT - Msg ID: 53468)

working-kirk (05/12/01; 00:51:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 53460)

What concerns me the most about "knowledgeable people" is that since they do not have a clue about modern money dynamics, in the coming meltdown they will turn to the same people who caused the problem for a solution.

This ugly scenario is of course a continuation of The Big Lie. Television, IMHO, is the greatest propaganda tool ever invented. It has successfully programmed and conditioned non-critical thinking people to follow the chosen path. The path of the elites.

As for my central bank scenario, I forgot to mention that once everyone has there money and they now owe me $105, if they were to pay me back even the original $100, this would take ALL the money out of circulation and they would have no medium of exchange.

Therefore, in order for the medium of exchange to continue its function, the debt cannot be repaid. In a larger sense, more debt must be created than is repaid in order to keep the game going.

abudahhab

(05/12/2001; 09:39:49 MDT - Msg ID: 53469)

One Ugly Chart

http://www.cbot.com/cbot/www/print/chart/0,1655,cb1dusm1+1+cb2dusm1,00.htmlThe T-Bonds are breaking down badly. We are likely witnessing the beginning of a secular bear market for fix income securities.

If so, the great counter trend spread is to be short T-Bonds and long gold (or foreign currencies - EU, SF, JY).

Trail Guide

(05/12/2001; 09:57:47 MDT - Msg ID: 53470)

Comment

ORO (05/12/01; 00:19:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 53458)
FOA - NO OFFICIAL MONEY NEED BE DEFINED
FOA, you are missing the point of my disaffection entirely.

I'll get back to ORO's, but first PH.

--------

Hello PH, long time no discussion (smile).

In your recent: ------ PH in LA (5/10/01; 10:49:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 53345) Just a mere interjection into the tirade.----

You write:
-------------Rather, he is trying to prove the viability of his thesis, much as we all love him (smile, smile). You put your finger right on his weakest link when you say, "Gold as official money is dead at the starting blocks." Unfortunately, this is ORO's one agenda. So, of course, he is perfectly willing to loosen his ICBMs to defend it. ----------

PH,
I kind of agree with you, but I don't think this is his singular objective. He has a wonderful presence here as his commentary is coterie with the objectives of the forum. Still, I feel this is his most passionate objective and that's why I always hesitated to oppose it. Not that we would be the object of a tirade, rather that our thoughts would be rejected without "in context of the times"
consideration.

-------------For my part, your proposed solution just resonates right. In the present fiat system, there is really no refuge. The lords and masters have every tool at the ready to debase the product of my labors (ie savings) and the only defense against them is risk. --------------

Oh boy! Don't you know it, PH! This is where I say that all of this is an evolution. Not so much in the changing aspect, but in the slowness of the process. Over years we (most especially Western minded savers) have come to accept the necessity of the "fiat settlement" function as it is needed in our modern economy. Ok, well enough, we can all buy that.

As such, we even understood the inflation price such a system's use places on us. People rebelled against it at first, as it started as an evil throw-back into the past experiences of fiat gold systems; where price inflation meant that the money was about to be destroyed and redenominated. Then, over time, as the dynamics of our world trade became better understood, this price inflation was
seen by most users as more of a tax that the system required to function. As long as it was low enough that we could out-gain it thru other investments, the benefits that our fiat trading economy provided was accepted.

We at first feared it, but in the longness of time we have grown numb to the slow hidden increases of this fiat inflation tax. In the US, especially, the full price of the tax is way, way above anything we imagine. Most of it hidden over many years in our "Dollar Reserve" function so as we do not conceive it's full impact upon our net worth.

Again, this world "fiat settlement tax,,,, this price inflation tax, would have been somewhat acceptable in an immoral sort of way, as society stole the productivity and efficiency gains (from those that could provide such) to pay for it. But, hidden theft is just too good of a process for our political system not to expand on. Just as I said in # 53425:

"""" It never starts out as "big corrupt government and their awful bankers" controlling the "good honest people",,,,,, rather,,,,, it's when a large enough segment of the "good honest people" are threatened with losing enough (gold) money that it could take down the economy,,,,,, they demand (elect into office) that their government and therefore bankers, expand the (gold) credit enough so as to slow the fall."""

PH,
When "We",,,, "this Us the political system is",,,, need someone else to cover our economic failings, the government does just what the "MAJORITY" demands and expands the inflation tax just a little more to cover it. Over the recent US dollar experiment, from 1971, "us Westerners" have built up an enormous inflation tax debit upon our dollar based assets. The full debit is unknown because the
dollar's reserve function has masked it's exchange rate value, there by covering up the real value of our dollar denominated assets. So,,,,,,,,,,,, to expand on your next:

-----"Invest in ________s!" they say. Fill in the blank with stocks, bonds, real estate, IRAs, (whatever) for all of which they have their fingers on the controlling strings. This is patently unfair. Once earned, the individual needs somewhere to put his savings where he can have control over
them... somewhere beyond the managers' inflationary reach. In our system of voluntary slavery, they hold our noses to the grindstone and make us all work out our lifetimes. ----------

PH, you are so right in this perception. As per my above, we invest in these assets, thinking that our out-sized gains are keeping well ahead of the inflation tax. Basically, people don't want or look for that special "somewhere to put his savings where he can have control ", because they don't think there is a problem. Can we blame them? Some of us even acknowledge that the CPI being so low is a fraud, but our other gains were so large we are still ahead! Still, just look at the lifestyle we all have because of our continued use of the Dollar Reserve Fiat.

Well, that's fair enough. We Westerners play at this game of currency cheating, but don't want others to think of it the that context. Further, if something is wrong, it was the fault of that big government and banking cabal that I never had anything to do with??? (smile)

I know that far too many think the system is healthy enough to go on forever maintaining their lifestyle. It won't. Currency systems come and go with time and our dollar is being phased out. Eventually, as the next reserve system unfolds, our US inflation rate will spike into hyper status. Not because the dollar or our economy is suddenly nonfunctional, but because all the past "inflation tax
deficits" that we built up over decades will come due. Then, not only the price of using our fiat system will be exposed,,,,, the price of all the political bailouts and American lifestyle enhancements will come due also. It will require a hugh devaluation of the dollar to cover this debt. It will appear to us as a sudden, hyperinflation, imposed on us by an unfair, European government,,,, out to get us. This is the perception ORO is, in a very small way, already bringing to surface.

Many hard money investors have evolved into "morphed goldbugs", no longer the real K-Rand carrying physical gold advocates they started out as. Now, they are wanting the dollar reserve to remain so that their dollar based gold industry investments can survive. Even wanting their leveraged paper gold to make it through the game intact. It won't.

Some of these "morphed goldbugs" want the paper gold
system fixed so it's fictional gold price can rise just enough to make their gold business investments pay off. It won't.

Not only will their "fighting the last war" strategy fail, they rile against any Thought that the Euro may cause all this convulsion to come about. So, they hurl everything they have at it as events play this drama into reality. In the process, our modern goldbugs sound more and more like
dollar advocates,,,,, and in effect their investments say they are.

The system will, in the end, completely fail to function in a way that reflects the physical price of gold bullion. Most of these goldbugs will eventually get some price gain as it all unwinds, but they will be standing at the fence looking in at real gold far out pacing everything in sight. Wondering why they even played such a game anyway. You see, our Western gold bugs are doing nothing more than your other investors, just trying to make some more dollar currency to beat the fiat tax of price inflation. They should be considering owning some of that "currency without a country" we recently heard USAGOLD talk about.

They, like most all the other dollar users will be in the same boat as our dollar's reserve function fails in a "game change" no one understands. The dynamics will rewrite our history books in:

""""what to do when the worlds one and only fiat currency is replaced by another fiat currency based on a gold wealth reserve instead of a gold is money reserve""".

Again, as MK pointed out, this new concept will create a "gold wealth without a country". Only most will perceive it as a new gold money without a country. That's ok, too.

You write:

-----Your proposed system at least holds out the possibility of an asset designed to hold its value in the face of their inflation. Seems logical to me. Seems like a system we could live with. The only system that we'll ever get, will be one that we can all live with. Maybe not anyone's perfect system. Not ORO's utopian gold standard. But at least one that most can tolerate. Who among us can really tolerate a system that sucks the value out of our savings through their insidious inflation if their is no refuge? No defense? -----------

You have a good political brain, my friend (smile).

-------why not declare your advocacy------

In the singular context that your question was asked,,,,,, I ask you, why should we? What would be added to our effort, what would be gained? More gold or fame? At this stage of life have enough of both. No, the basic value of the message would be diluted. Truly, I add that in this world the gift of understanding is expensive to package and the art of producing it is has no measurement of pay. For myself, it's priceless.

Thanks, PH
more to you later
TrailGuide

Camel

(05/12/2001; 10:50:57 MDT - Msg ID: 53471)

King Wen

Black Blade- You mentioned King Wen in your message, and as you probably know, King Wen is considered to be one of the authors of the I Ching. Actually the hexagrams are thought to have gradually evolved over many hundreds of years, but it was King Wen who first wrote them down while imprisoned by the tyrant Chou Hsin aound 1150 BC. They became the intellectual foundation of the Chou Dynasty which was considered one of the Golden Ages of Chinese history and it was one of the only one of the Chinese classics that was spared the famous burning of the books around 250 BC.

Cavan Man

(05/12/2001; 11:48:01 MDT - Msg ID: 53472)

Hello Trail Guide

Do you suspect they have a plan over at the US Treasury to cope with these THOUGHTS ? Thanks...CM

Cavan Man

(05/12/2001; 11:49:03 MDT - Msg ID: 53473)

Many thanks for the fine questions to TG.

Cavan Man

(05/12/2001; 11:54:09 MDT - Msg ID: 53474)

Trail Guide

"Truly, I add that in this world the gift of understanding is expensive to package and the art of producing it has no measurement of pay." (That is beautiful!)

"Art"; 'tis indeed. The gift of understanding is also priceless. I can only repay you and yours by saying that you've had tremendous impact on five lives. Shalom...CM

megatron

(05/12/2001; 12:12:25 MDT - Msg ID: 53475)

TrailGuide/ORO

If the TG scenario played out the price of gold(physical) would essentially be priced locally, as most of society(bond market) would have broken down, it would be worth whatever you could get for it. Possibly your life? Since most of the inflated crap we now own would be worthless, day to day transactions with gold within a collapsed system composed of angry,armed, TV educated idiots would be difficult. Silver would be far more 'useful' while gold would be 'hidden wealth'.

Cavan Man

(05/12/2001; 12:12:58 MDT - Msg ID: 53476)

PH in LA

No identity is revealed because it is more important to understand the "lesson". "Understanding" is the operative word. If an identity was revealed it would be like announcing that Buffet had just bought ___________(fill in the blanks); just another piece of digital data to trade on for profit wrongly defined. Who said and I paraphrase, with all thy "getting", get understanding!

Black Blade

(05/12/2001; 12:17:09 MDT - Msg ID: 53477)

Jimmy Carter's energy fiasco haunts Bush White House

http://www.nationalpost.com/home/story.html?f=/stories/20010512/561548.html
Snippit:

With electricity blackouts in California and prices rising steadily at gasoline pumps across the United States, Republicans recall the damage the 1970s energy crisis did to the Democratic president and ponder the prospects of George W. Bush being blind-sided by a similar crunch.

Black Blade: There will be no cooperation between the 2 major political parties as a resolution to the energy crisis will benefit the Republicans and that is unacceptable to the Democrats. The Democrats will fight a resolution as a means to point blame at the incoming administration for political gains. It is a case of a bunch of eunuchs fighting for control of the harem and not being able to do much about it should they actually take control.

Cavan Man

(05/12/2001; 12:35:05 MDT - Msg ID: 53478)

USAGOLD

You have mail.

Black Blade

(05/12/2001; 12:37:30 MDT - Msg ID: 53479)

Seizing Generators an Option

http://www.latimes.com/news/state/20010512/t000039963.html
Snippit:

SACRAMENTO--California Treasurer Phil Angelides said Friday that if generators raise their already exorbitant electricity prices this summer, the state will have no choice but to commandeer power plants to avoid a financial meltdown. Generators ridiculed Angelides' proposed solution to the state's power woes, claiming it would only worsen what is already a deteriorating business climate in California. They said such an action would scare off private investment in new power plants to fill the dearth of electricity supplies.

Black Blade: That would be interesting to see so many idle power plants in California. Power plants require fuel, and since the higher costs of power generation are related to the higher costs of fuel, it looks as if Kommissar Davis and his Komrades are only blowing smoke. Socialism is very inefficient so seizure of power plants is not a viable solution. California like other Third World countries will continue to experience energy blackouts. The California economy is about to hit the skids.

Black Blade

(05/12/2001; 13:02:36 MDT - Msg ID: 53480)

Energy Crisis Solutions Years Away

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A16835-2001May11.html
Snippit:

President Bush declared yesterday that the nation faces an energy crisis that can be alleviated only by building more oil refineries, and said that an across-the-board tax cut is about all the federal government can do to help people cope with this year's blackouts and rising gasoline prices.

Black Blade: Unlike past energy crises, this one will be long-term. The end result is that we face an economic disaster that will make the energy shocks of the 1970's and perhaps even the Great Depression look like minor economic downturns. Now more than ever is the time to accumulate hard assets such as precious metals, real estate, basic necessities, etc. The warning signs are everywhere and are clearly unmistakable.

megatron

(05/12/2001; 13:30:58 MDT - Msg ID: 53481)

BlackBlade

One might want to hold off on the real estate purchases, as interest rates will be plunged to stave off deflation.

Netking

(05/12/2001; 14:06:44 MDT - Msg ID: 53482)

Real estate purchases

A better scenario Mega. would be for them to rent/lease put capital into Ag., in the days to come a 1,000 Oz's of silver might buy a house, or at the worst a nice car yes. A 10,000 Oz position should put them into a seven figure net worth status.

Journeyman

(05/12/2001; 15:17:05 MDT - Msg ID: 53483)

Historical perspective as pallative for "free gold" malaise @Trail Guide, PH in LA, ORO, beesting, Turnaround, ALL

http://www.journeyman.1hwy.com/J-BIG_OneIIIb.html
Apparently I've been left out of this discussion as far as the
"big boys" go for some reason. However for those of you, now
officially four, I believe - - - Turnaround said he reads my
posts sometimes - - -

"Gold as official money is dead at the starting blocks." -PH in
LA.

I disagree. Those who wish to rob us (or have gotten used to
doing so) through inflation, monetary policy and fiscal policy,
etc. do, however, indeed devoutly wish it were. Why are you so
eager to believe their propaganda?

Gold may be indeed "dead" as far as _OFFICIAL MONEY_ (fiat) is
concerned - - - quite simply because those who wish to rob us (or
have gotten used to doing so) are the exact same folks who
manufacture "official money" and for completely obvious reasons
wish to _keep_ robbing us, and in fact, simply can't control
themselves in this endeavour. This is GUARANTEED to be their
ultimate undoing.

And it's true, they have temporarily gotten us into the habit of
thinking we don't have any alternatives. But so-what - - - soon
"official money," to the extent they are fiats, will be dead, or
at least shadows of their former selves, forced to be honest by
honest competition - - - from none other than gold.

"Journeyman," you're thinking, "how can you say such an off-the-
wall thing? No one does transactions in gold anymore! Besides,
as Trail Guide says, 'Over years we (most especially Western
minded savers) have come to accept the necessity of the "fiat
settlement" function as it is needed in our modern economy.'
Listen to Trail Guide, Journeyman, this fiat settlement function
_is_ necessary, for gosh sakes!! We simply couldn't exist without
it, Journeyman! You and ORO have finally gone off the deep end."

Well, we indeed need a "settlement function." But where is it
written that it must be a _fiat_ settlement function??? Please
cite chaper and verse. And it better come from a source higher
than government because their "fiats" - - - edicts declaring some
token or another to be "legal tender for all debts public and
private," etc. - - - have historically proven notoriously
impotent, especially in times of financial stress.

The one thing a modern banking system does that is valuable to
all of us is to let us make payments at a distance - - - we don't
have to drive into Richmond to pay in "cash." The banks do this
with paper-shuffling & mostly electronics. What they do is
essentially cancel out compensating transactions and end up with
a small balance that must be recorded, remembered, and eventually
actually transferred physically in Brinks, etc. trucks.

For example, suppose Bank A cashed a check drawn on Bank B for
$100 dollars, but Bank B cashed a check drawn on Bank A for $110.
There's no need for Bank B to send Bank A $100 and Bank A to send
Bank B $110. The only transfer necessary to cancel everything
out _immediately_ is for Bank A to send Bank B $10. Or they can
wait till later, keeping track of the $10 and perhaps the
balances will shift.

In practice it's only when a balance between banks becomes
excessively large that an actual transfer is desirable - - -
Brinks trucks are expensive, afterall. And in fact, as the
number of banks involved in the clearing system increases, the
necessity of transfers per institution tends to decrease,
especially when a trusted intermediary holds the excess and over-
sees the bookkeeping.

But, when transfers become desirable, Brinks trucks can transfer
gold too. That's originally exactly what they did.

As far as transactions settled in gold, they're once again
occurring quite regularly and at a rapidly increasing rate.
Check out the best known "electronic gold" web site and see for
yourself.

Perhaps this is just a fad. If so, that's OK. But there are
good sound practical reasons too. Trail Guide regularly points
many out in his posts. For example:

"We at first feared it, but in the longness of time we have grown
numb to the slow hidden increases of this fiat inflation tax. In
the US, especially, the full price of the tax is way, way above
anything we imagine. Most of it hidden over many years in our
"Dollar Reserve" function so as we do not conceive it's full
impact upon our net worth. " -Trail Guide msg#: 53470

Have they gotten used to it in Indonesia, Russia, Ecuador,
Turkey, South Korea, etc.?

*-*-*-*

According to Fed Chief Alan Greenspan, 24% of current world trade
involves trade across national borders, which nearly always means
cross-currency (cross-fiat) trade. This means the trade value of
the currencies involved makes a big difference as to whether the
transactions are profitable for both parties. Any change in the
exchange rates, then, may make your widgets too expensive in the
other country, and worse if you have free trade, even in your own
country where your strong currency enables your countrymen to buy
foreign widgets cheaper than you can now make them.

If 24% of the world economy depends on cross-currency trades,
clearly it's extremely important to keep exchange rates stable.
So how do you do that with fiat currencies? In practice, there
aren't many options: Currency pegs (so many xs to ys is
"mandated" and the country(s) endeavour to keep it that way by
buying and selling each-other's currencies. Floating exchange
rates, where the currencies are free-floating and change as
market forces determine. Currency boards which over-see a strict
pegging and attempt to control internal monetary factors with an
iron hand to see the peg stays pegged.

Problem is, none of these schemes to control fiat exchange-rates
is very good. When asked at a Humphrey-Hawkins testimony whether
he liked a pegged currency, floating exchange rates or currency
boards, Greenspan replied that none of them work very well. And
therein lies the real problem with fiat currencies which, along
with the uncontrollable desire of their manufacturers to make
just a little more "for the gipper," all but guarantees their
ultimate demise.

Now imagine you're a businessman involved in such cross-fiat
trades (or a government being lobbied by such businessmen). At
least 24% of your business (and perhaps all of it) - - - and at
least 24% of your employees - - - depend on selling that 24% of
your widgets to another country in return for that other
country's currency. At the currently prevailing exchange rate.
Is it any wonder that about 60% of the approximately $90 trillion
in derivatives are interest rate (insurance) derivatives?

Ultimately a great deal of the political agitation that Trail
Guide points to to mess with the currency comes directly from the
unpredictable, uncontrollable nature of inter-fiat exchange
rates. Ultimately this can often lead to trade wars, trade
protectionism, and competitive devaluations. And the advantage
to having the additional printing-press advantage of "reserve
currency," to "currency wars."

A good place to look currently for some of the real-world effects
of unstable exchange rates is South America, particularly
Argentina, Chile and Brazil. (See the link in the header.) And
perhaps here at USAGOLD for front line skirmish reports on the
Dollar vs. Euro.

None of this, naturally, would be a problem if international
trades were conducted in transactions denominated in gold - - -
an ounce of gold is an ounce of gold in every country, regardless
of politicians, bureaucrats, bankers, laws or regulations. And
that equivalence persists, essentially, forever. That would put
an end to a large number of those folks agitating government for
special dispensation from the laws of supply and demand - - -
and/or bad business decisions.

THIS, along with "electronic gold" all but guarantees
international trade will migrate to transactional gold. And it
only makes sense that this use of gold for transactions will
further expand to interpersonal trade as well. It may be slow,
but it may be faster than any of us think.

*-*-*-*

And once again it baffles me how so many otherwise rational
people, particularly here on this site - - - and supposed gold
advocates at that - - - fight this logic, and do so in the face
of all the lessons of history.

I remember Carl Sagan explaining "geologic time" by showing how
long humans have been on the face of the earth. This time period
was barely perceptible. A persentation of "economic time" would
show an equivalently short life-time (or time-line) for our
"modern" fiat. Unlike man, however, fiat will almost certainly
prove to be a recurrent but short-lived fatal mutation which
always eats it's young and then kills itself.

Panic if you must, but transactional gold is destined to return,
probably for good.

Regards,
Journeyman

P.S. Trail Guide, the only people running to governments and
agitating for special dispensation from transactional gold would
be incompetent businesses (not those vicitmized by the
unpredictible fiat exchange rates in today's "system") and
bankers and would-be tyrants nostalgic for the days when looting
the indigenous populations was so much easier - - - all you
needed was a printing press.

P.P.S. I don't think anyone need worry about ORO wilting under
the pressure. Same goes for me. If you feel I'm patently wrong
- - - or even mildly incorrect, please feel completely free to
correct me in as harsh a manner as you can muster. (I'm on the
road, so it may be a week or so before I catch up with such
corrective posts, however.)

megatron

(05/12/2001; 15:58:55 MDT - Msg ID: 53484)

NetKing

Way ahead a ya, baby! Look out above!

Sancho

(05/12/2001; 18:04:46 MDT - Msg ID: 53485)

Oro

Regarding your post 53458, WOW---after trying to "digest" all this I developed a major obsession for some small island with a dog that always wags his tail to see me wherein I could practice a degree of self-sufficiency and retreat from coping with the homo-sapien species.

R Powell

(05/12/2001; 18:16:15 MDT - Msg ID: 53486)

Something for the silverbugs among us

http://www.silver-investor.com/essay.htm This prints out at three pages.
Rich

R Powell

(05/12/2001; 18:21:56 MDT - Msg ID: 53487)

Another one for silverbugs

http://www.mcalvany.com/specialreports/nov/silver.html Seven pages in print for this one. Hope it's good, I haven't had a chance to read it yet as my Saturday "honey-dos" (painting) to some time today. Listened to the Red Sox ballgame while painting.
Rich

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/12/2001; 18:46:42 MDT - Msg ID: 53488)

(No Subject)

Cavan Man @ # 53476Sir:

Soloman's daddy (David the King) told him that, I believe. You knew that but others may be curious. Mighty good advice, I might add.

Very respectfully,

HBM

R Powell

(05/12/2001; 19:04:52 MDT - Msg ID: 53489)

Journeyman

Thanks for the L. Reichard White link and your post. White has always seemed logical to me. I'm wondering if the whole world will have to be saturated with U.S. dollars before too many of them can start devaluing their worth or what/when will trigger their return (big float)? Of course, I also wonder what will cause POG to change into a four digit $ number and when this will happen and how fast it will happen once it starts. If it's happening now, I sure wish it would progress a bit faster. Thank again!
Rich

USAGOLD

(05/12/2001; 19:37:32 MDT - Msg ID: 53490)

Spot the Dog. . . .

Spot!.jpeg.htmlYou've heard me talk about Spot. And the very interesting posts about stirring this golden canine to life from Goldfly and Gandalf. Well, while we were busily discussing the issues of the day, our friend, Spot was on to bigger and better things having infiltrated the White House. Now the real story is here for you in picture form courtesy of our wizardrous friend, Gandalf the White.

P.S. I hope this works. I'm not as good at this sort of thing as Randy.

Well here goes. . . . .

If it doesn't, maybe Randy will fix it for us. It's at the server, Randy.

Cavan Man

(05/12/2001; 19:47:51 MDT - Msg ID: 53491)

Hill Billy Mitchell

HBM: No, I did not know that. I read the Bible everyday (almost) as well as "The Ladder of Divine Ascent" by St. John Climacus (6th century Abbot of a monastery on Mt. Sinai)--not to be missed! Anywho, how 'bout we chase the white ball sometime in June over here? Middle of the month would be best. munterct@hotmail.com

Trail Guide

(05/12/2001; 19:54:32 MDT - Msg ID: 53492)

Comment

Cavan Man,
Thank you so much for your kind words and respected interest. Onward, my friend! (smile)

Journeyman,
--- Apparently I've been left out of this discussion as far as the-----

If you will just check your back to see that it is all wet. (smile) Not dry yet because of that water balloon I tossed at you in a recent post. No sir, if you write here, you are not out of it(grin).
Thanks for writing, I'll (and others) will be replying !

Black Blade,
Are you, by chance one of those people in the TV show "West Wing"? I'm always amassed at your ability to gather and organize so much material. Thought you were one of the upper level fellas?
Thanks for sharing.

Now, once again, back to PH:

PH in LA (05/11/01; 09:52:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 53412)
Fiat legal tender vs abolishment of futures markets by fiat

------"This note is legal tender for all debts public and private"------So sayeth every FRN used in commerce. This is a topic that has been elucidated here at great length... even and especially by ORO himself. ----------Now, one supposes that any legal system that specifies that gold interest can be settled with any "note (which) is legal tender for all debts public and private" that no contract
could be enforced in gold. -------Does this mean the abolishment of gold as a monetary instrument? ------Are all gold transactions thereby abolished?-----

PH, you sure don't need any Gingko - Biloba to clear your thoughts. This post of yours hit the logic I was straining for,,,,, right on the head! I edited it to do like Randy (thanks Randy) sometimes does to mine. To allow for an expanded point.

Pulling from the thrust of my last comment to you; we all accept, use and somewhat prosper by using this fiat money called legal tender dollars. Further, we all pay our price inflation tax as a cost of doing business,,,,,,, as long as it doesn't get out of hand or we can cover it with other
investments. Or, at least, as long as we aren't able to see the real value destruction this tax is building up under cover of it's "currency reserve" power. However, for the purpose of grasping our reasoning here,,,,, concerning my recent trail walk talk about changing the collateral rules of gold,,,,,,,,,,,, lets look at your counter point to ORO.

He made a long reasoned post, expanding his thoughts on why no authority could enforce such a law. Yet, your point above presents the essence of this concept, in real life as we have lived with it for decades. Fiat dollars, as legal tender, are our money because court after court has upheld that our laws declare them so.

Some say that international law and protocols cannot have an impact? Well, they do when it's in the reining powers best interest. The US now and the EuroZone later. In present context; here we have 200+ million westerners and countless other world citizens,,,, all having lived a good portion of our lives using this very system,,, working under legal tender status,,,, and all doing so under our American law.

Yes, this legal tender fiat money,,,,, this concept of digital trading wealth,,,, is used by most as an "International Protocol" contract,,,,, made common through the IMF and the Jamaica Accords! It's the same US dollar system that made the settlement of debt in gold almost illegal and the common use of of our money a world wide obsession! How about that for not being able to make something stick?

Now; when I proposed to Econoclast (on the GoldTrail); that an understanding could be projected that gold could not be seen in a court of law as attachable collateral in any contract form,,,,,,,, some pointed out that this couldn't be done. Yet, in opposite reflection, it almost already has (smile)!

Our thrust is that; by taking physical gold out of any and all performing credit structures, one enhances the fiat credit process,,,,,,, but more importantly,,,,,, frees the ability of gold to value any and all currencies ---- against each other----- not against gold. Once in place, physical gold value would soar, but not do it as money,,,,, rather as an asset. In this fashion, raw gold value could not be inflated or deflated and in doing such would reflect it's possession value as wealth. Tradable wealth that you or any government could use to buy anything,,,,,,, as long as it was a payment in full without credit.

Some fear that a congress of laws would be required to control such a position? No, just one,,,, kind of like our legal tender law. How about "gold is not subject to collateral attachment of any debts public and private". Of course, gold loans could be written and entered into,,,,,,,, gold options could be created,,,,,, Bullion banks could do a huge business in lending gold and governments could lend it all! But, if any of these contracts defaults and ends up in a court of law,,,,, it dead at the door! I'll leave it to you to figure out how long this business would continue.

PH, we are staring at one of the biggest paper gold lending games ever created on the face of the earth. Further, it's about to completely fail as the main currency it's all written in "craps out" (had to throw in some of my gutter talk (smile)). When all of this washes out, how do you think the next reserve currency owners are going to preserve their hegemony? That's right, I knew you already understood all this.

Thanks
TrailGuide

(05/12/2001; 20:54:45 MDT - Msg ID: 53493)

FOA

Hey FOA - thanks for your thoughts. You write in part;

"Keeping gold out of the fiat arena would be more simple than many hard school advocates envision. The key to that is
found in the implementation of international law. The leading economic countries (EuroZone in the future) would have but
to establish a protocol that forbid the enforcement of collateral attachment anytime physical gold is traded, lent or
involved in a trade."

Yeah baby! Now that would be great, eh?

FOA, I prefer free markets over your socialism. The idea of international currency laws is most repugnant. Seems to fly in the face of any kind of gold advocacy.

Max Rabbitz

(05/12/2001; 21:00:40 MDT - Msg ID: 53494)

Bleeding Centaur

It would appear that the good Knights have been much amused with jousting this week. But news from afar brought by Sir Powell (#53440) has me much baffled. A small Australian mine, named for a mythical (?) beast is said to have problems for selling gold yet to be mined at very poor prices, $440 Australian dollars out to the year 2000 and 9! Now this dollar now fallen to lower than low.... I figure the price to be $221 U.S. and no more($423AUD x 0.5218). Problems, indeed! They are now said now to be looking to close some 1,610,000 ounces or 50 some tonnes.

What I do not understand is thus. If going to be bankrupt and bond holders step up to be paid, why must those old hedges be unwound or be bought? Why not default and so what if they do? Give them (banks?) a shovel and say dig tell you're through. It is said there are others, in this far distant land, with similar thinking and problems to boot. Did they all hedge in this Kangaroo currency too? Would not most be or soon be in the same situation and the Centaur we see bleeding is but at the tip of the lance?

megatron

(05/12/2001; 21:37:11 MDT - Msg ID: 53495)

Can't hold back!

Anyone who could not profit or lock in from a $400 rise in the price of gold/$20 silver is a complete moron and should never go near any kind of speculation or investments, period. All this blah blah about monetary gold seems directed towards people with glacial decision making speed.
It's going to take a long time for either of these scenarios to play out. For real, intelligent traders, 1 week is a real long time, to put it in perspective.

Goldfly

(05/12/2001; 22:10:42 MDT - Msg ID: 53496)

ET...I bet you've heard of this guy.....

http://www.antiwar.com/justin/pf/p-j050701.html
Hey, maybe you ARE this guy!

Check it out....Justin Raimondo

Sippit

An international hate campaign against Italian rightist leader Silvio Berlusconi is now going into high gear. The goal: saving the Euro-communist ("center-left") government now in power,and derailing Berlusconi's hopes of becoming Prime Minister in the upcoming [May 13]parliamentary elections. It's the same sort of drumbeat that greeted the rise of Joerg Haider, the leader of the Austrian Freedom Party, initiated for the same reason: Berlusconi, like the Austrians, threatens the socialist unity of the emerging European Union.

Chris Powell

(05/12/2001; 22:28:15 MDT - Msg ID: 53497)

Recent international news stories about GATA

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/761Canada's Financial Post say gold can't possibly
sustain a rally:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/761

South Africa's Business Report's dismissive story
about GATA's Durban conference:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/762

South German News features GATA:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/763

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Trail Guide

(05/12/2001; 22:36:34 MDT - Msg ID: 53498)

Comment

Hello ORO,
I know I keep talking about your presentations, but as they say in hollywood; "that's the price of fame"!

ORO (05/12/01; 00:19:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 53458)
FOA - NO OFFICIAL MONEY NEED BE DEFINED

You write:

------FOA, you are missing the point of my disaffection entirely. In my preferred rendition of a monetary system, there is no particular official money, just a legal recognition of a commonly accepted money (and no limitation on it being only one or many, if the markets leave one surviving money � probably gold � fine, if not then two or more are fine). Bankers have no charters, and their liabilities stand on their own. This is not a gold standard unless it turns into one.---------

ORO,
Your heart is in the right place and you have a brilliant mind to keep it pumping. (smile) But, what this entails is us starting creation all over again. My friend, I have studied a little bit about old gold, it's progression throughout civilization's timeline and how we got to this point today. Yes, we may and most likely will return to a period that recreates what you say above. But, that will happen after this bunch of humanity gets through experimenting with it's fiat creations. ORO, the world is just not ready to go again where you are pointing right now.

You write:
-------Lenders and equity investors do not have the expectations you presented. Only bank depositors do, even then only those who think of a bank as a depository and clearing house rather than an investment fund like a money market. For savers interested in a gold vault and clearing
service the markets have long known to provide a service with minimal or nearly no risk. For everyone else, who is investor and saver, it is a traditional bank he seeks. No bond holder would ever imagine the promises in hand to be money or a good substitute for it. They are investments,
NOT savings. They are a fruit tree owned for the future fruit it is to bear, not dried fruit that will last
generations.-------------

I agree. However, we are living at the very tail end of what we have called "this currencies timeline". True you are,,,,,, our current world of lenders and investors don't seek a separate wealth form in singular gold. They presently need only the one dollar currency to play with. This view is
indeed the extrapolation of their life's money experience, as they have know no other. I don't blame them and group their perspectives into one, calling it the "Western Thought".

To them, our present currency system will not fail to deliver their wealth, intact, against all odds. In this they save their assets in the position that the dollar's contract will stand. ORO, our society does not grasp the gut feeling that comes with currency default. When an icy stare of a contract specialist leans across the negotiating table and says "what if we walk"?

They walked in 1971 because of political circumstances (oil figured largely in this), they did it then because they wanted to. This time, the US will walk because it has to! Run the printing press, full out, and retain a super inflating currency system,,,,,, or drop the ball and be subjugated to entirely using the money of another nation block. This is the eventual checkmate.

In this, your investors and lenders will understand the need for Another asset beside their fiat. Another fruit that "will" last generations.

You say:
--------- You may have come across a Barron's article-------------It is not that people first had banking and then government came in to bail out the depositors by forcing everyone to accept bank paper instead of gold. It is the other way round, bankers were incredibly cautious when they were not granted any privilege, the few happy go lucky Wild West banks were not at all characteristic of the situation when the central bank was closed down (both the first and second banks of the US did not have their charters renewed).------------Your view is of a world in which people start out with groundless expectations to make foolish decisions after which they cry to government to bail them out. That has never been the case. It has always been government that made promises that it could not keep knowing that the people have no alternate government to turn to if the promises are not kept, and it is this same government that gave privileges and subsidy to banks so that they could
make promises they could not keep with impunity because all banks were governed by the same rules, leaving customers no choices and little opportunity (and therefore incentive) to practice judgment. The rules were not made to fit the customers preferences within the confines of the reality, they were set into law in order to frustrate him.----------------

But ORO, lets reason a moment? You are absolutely correct in the above and more! Yet, that portion of the story has made the case of every hard money author and it's still only part of the human play. Better said, it's only part of the perception.

Why do you think there were banks at all, back then? They existed to provide a service private people would not perform very much of,,,,,,, lend gold. Back then, nobody wanted to lend their money. Not to strangers, not to schisters,,,, and certainly not to family members (smile). Gold money was cash money and credit wasn't offered in mass. People were suspicious of each other and rightly so. We are all a bunch of crooks! Ha! Ha!

Now banks were, as they are today, just middle men taking your money, lending it to others and trying to profit from it. Back then, there was certainly a growing demand for credit, it's just that no one wanted to take the risk to lend. The same as today, there is (was) a dynamic growing demand for credit that is over and above the function of cash trading. (that is wealth for wealth or gold for
goods commerce) Banks were seen as filling this gap and taking the risk the private sector would not provide.

In this context one can understand that society created the demand for banks by wanting credit. By extension, our nation demanded banks and the service they provided. The very nature of society was to want to borrow and accept the risk of that credit, but not to lend with the the risk of losing
their own money. Both then and now this is a basic human trait. One of the reasons most would not keep their money in a bank without FDIC insurance. Don't mind borrowing it, but damn if I'm gona lose it???

So,,,,, this creature that was forced upon us was really something we demanded. You said above that:

-----this same government that gave privileges and subsidy to banks so that they could make promises they could not keep with impunity because all banks were governed by the same rules, leaving customers no choices and little opportunity (and therefore incentive) to practice
judgment.-----

Oh boy, that paints them poor customers as little "darlings",,,,,, Cowboys, New Yorkers and Denver society that just lost their way? (smile) My friend, gold coin was money back then, you didn't have to use the banks for transactions and you didn't have to borrow it's money! We created the demand for their service then, because no one else would lend to us, period! There was choice,,,, there was opportunity to practice judgment,,,,,, you didn't have to borrow! However,,,,, when those little "darlings" lost all their money in railroads, cattle and silver mines (grin), they screamed to high heaven for more credit and damn the gold supply. Had they done their credit business with the wife's father-in-law, they would have been hanging from the nearest tree. Instead, they asked the government to "make them bad banks" lend more, no matter if they had it or no.

You state several questions:

------ Is it structured into human society that political representatives be crooks? ----
Almost as large a percentage as the electorate that chooses them.

----Is the balance of power between the people and their government fixed in nature so that government can always pull the wool over their people's eyes? ------
No, nature gives equal wool to everyone, both public and private.

----Are the people always going to be overwhelmed by government? ------
Only the ones that cannot out think government.

----Will people not learn from their own experience and from history? ------
Most never have and never will.

------Has the availability of instantaneous information and thoughts not changed anything?-------
The answer is no.

ORO, my trite answers are unfortunately true to reality. Ever more so today, we must deal with what can be done, not what should be done.

Next:

Further you went on to use my two examples, one of a gold loan and the other of paying for an asset. However this went out of context in the second as I was establishing an example of paying cash for an asset,,,,,, for a business,,,,,, for anything. The contrast was in not taking on credit to conduct commerce.

You say:

-----In the 100 oz loan,-------
-----In joining a partnership-------

---------I am sure you are aware of the difference between a loan and equity ------

Well, yes I am. In a further extension and clarification of my point; in paying cash for anything we are establishing equity in what we buy. Most financial thinkers try to limit the equity expression to mostly business or financial asset ownership. However, there is equity in any cash purchase. From shoes and cars,,,,, coats and houses,,,,,,,,, electricity (Black Blade) and natural gas,,,,,,, even
enjoyment equity in the theater ticket because of the great play one gets to experience.

The problem today is that few of us have established in our minds the dual nature of using our tradable wealth. Credit, we are all aware of as credit cards,,,,, debit cards and bank loans,,,, can and does buy our way. But the closest comparison to using gold in a final, non credit trade is seen in paying cash for everything. In this context, most people could relate to using gold as a trading asset where credit is not wanted.

However, in the gold not as collateral position; Greshams Law would do the work that our ancient gold owners understood. Gold would travel and trade on the road,,,,,, in our day that would mean buying what was dear and most wanted. Gold would be dear, super valuable and saved, in
possession as a wealth of ages. Giving legs to whatever fiat the world needs credit in. Fiat would be spent and valued for the credit qualities a digital currency could provide, right beside gold.

In closing I say,

Gold, the money it never was and the wealth it never forgot to be.

Thanks for your great mind, sir. Your comments are always welcome on this trail we walk.

"We watch this new gold market together, yes?"

TrailGuide

Trail Guide

(05/12/2001; 22:48:10 MDT - Msg ID: 53499)

(No Subject)

Hello ET,

You say:

----FOA, I prefer free markets over your socialism. The idea of international currency laws is most repugnant. Seems to fly in the face of any kind of gold advocacy.----

Well, you certainly expressed you complete grasp of it all in that. I commend you sir, few can show so much with so little. ??

Good night all
TrailGuide

SHIFTY

(05/12/2001; 23:56:08 MDT - Msg ID: 53500)

old news articles on gold price

Who posted them ???I have not been able to keep up with all that is going on here at the forum since I got home last week.
While reading the news stories about GATA today, I am reminded of the news articles someone posted here about a year ago. Sorry I cant remember who it was. They were from back in the 70s. There was one that stands out in my mind. I remember it saying something about how the gold price could never double to $70.00 an ounce. I think it would be nice to read those articles again to compare with the media spin we are being treated to today.
Does anyone know who it was that posted those jewels?

How about a repost?

$hifty

Journeyman

(05/13/2001; 00:07:43 MDT - Msg ID: 53501)

For lack of perception (and poor intel) the battle was lost @Trail Guide, ORO, ALL

"Yes, this legal tender fiat money,,,,, this concept of digital trading wealth,,,, is used by most as an "International Protocol" contract,,,,, made common through the IMF and the Jamaica Accords! It's the same US dollar system that made the settlement of debt in gold almost illegal and the common use of of our money a world wide obsession! How about that for not being able to make something stick?" -Trail Guide (05/12/01; 19:54:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 53492

That's the type of thing people always think (or at least say) when they institute their fiats. And especially reiterate strongly when their fiats are reaching the end of their time lines. And some are duped and many opportunists go along for the ride.

They said it of French assignats - - - up through their first nine-and-a-half years. They said it of German marks - - - until after WWI. They said it of the Brazillian currency just before the "real" and of the Ecuadorian sucre - - - until last year. They said it of the Turkish lira. Etc. They're saying it of the dollar. But if Trail Guide is correct, a similar fate awaits the dollar as well. And it's just around the corner.

The dollar's lasted only about 30 years unconnected to gold, only about three times as long as the French assignats. World fiat in fact has existed only for thirty years unconnected to gold.

I had many Polish friends that, since Russian communism had lasted for a whole 70 years, it would never end. That was before the Berlin Wall came down of course.

So what's different today than ever before in history that makes some folks here so optimistic about modern fiats??? In the above contexts, why is it so hard to imagine transactional gold?

The only possible difference today is that people (at least those with a "western" mind-set) don't seem to know they have gold as an alternative. But all the mythology still exists in the language and in our minds. Businesses well-know the problems with international exchange brought about by exchange-rate instabilities (and countries know of the instabilities brought upon their populations by the 24% of their businesses made unstable by unstable international exchange rates.)

As Judy Shelton suggests in "Money Meltdown,"

As the global economy increasingly becomes a reality with improved communications throughout the world, individuals in different countries will have less tolerance for the discretionary actions of fallible central bankers that undermine the value of money. Producers and consumers will want to deal directly with each other. A gold standard provides the common denominator for conducting business across national boundaries -- a sort of monetary Esperanto. National currencies function as dialects of the same root language, gold-backed money. -Judy Shelton, Money Meltdown (New York: The Free Press 1994), p. 259

The Central Bankers apparently suspect the truth as well as per their statement out of Jackson Hole about a year and a half ago that they were about to become extinct. That might explain why Alan Greenspan, an unrepentatant gold advocate, somehow got to be head of the Federal Reserve. After all, if some of us here at USAGOLD finally figured out that transactional gold was on our horizon, The Powers That Be must have had an inkling awhile back don't you think?

I should point out that Shelton assumes, as do Trail Guide and many others here, that some sort of intermediary in the form of domestic currency units need to be defined in each country and tied to gold. This indeed, as ORO points out, is not necessary except as far as the current generation of users is concerned. Transactions can, should, and will be conducted in grams and/or ounces of gold.

There is indeed much inertia in any attempt to get a given population to accept changes in it's culture. The decimalization of British currency and metrification are examples.

It was relatively easy to go from gold-backed dollars to fiat dollars because the fiat dollars were designed to mimic gold-backed dollars, and only careful observers noticed the counterfeit, and as Keynes noted of the inherent inflation, not one in a thousand could diagnose the results.

But gold is different and, with electronic gold, the transition back to it won't be that difficult. Gold has always been perceived by the population to be a more solid standard of value than fiat, the fiat _dollar_ included. (And a tip-o-the-hat to the noxious habits of the fiat mongers.) When was the last time you heard someone say "sound as the dollar?" People still say "as good as gold." And while they used to say "The _dollar_ is as good as gold," they NEVER said "Gold is as good as the dollar." Which is the _standard_ in peoples' minds do you think, gold or the dollar? And what about in India and China?

The world (if only the western world) has been off of gold for only thirty years. Want to bet we get back on it a lot faster than that, especially when the dollar dumps? Business is ready - - - remember that Barrons article.

I have talked to many folks about this, and despite the thirty-second attention-span and mind-set of trader-gamblers, the average person, even in America, is not aware that gold is dead. They still want gold, and when they become aware it is widely available in the form of electronic gold, many will jump at the chance to use it. I know seven already.

Regards,
Journeyman

P.S. Most of these seven thought I was crazy to invest in gold, but they jumped right on the electronic gold bandwagon when it cruised by. Go figure.
View Yesterday's Discussion.

Black Blade

(05/13/2001; 00:09:46 MDT - Msg ID: 53502)

THE ENERGY CRISIS - IT REALLY IS DIFFERENT THIS TIME - IT�S MUCH WORSE

The recent energy crisis is not the typical energy crisis that we have experienced in times past. This time the energy crisis occurred even though it was obvious to many and that it could have been avoided. Much of the problem arose due to inept government and poor planning. In short, the energy crisis resulted from strong economic growth and the demands of a new electronic-based economy and insufficient investment demand for energy beyond the current energy infrastructure to deliver any additional energy. The increased demands for energy finally overcame the available supply and ability to produce energy. The argument against price controls is that they don't work because reduced profits hinder investment and provide no incentive for the consumer to conserve energy. Under the regulated utility environment there was little incentive for investment to increase electrical supply and to upgrade infrastructure without a reasonable expectation of return on investment.

In the 1970's when there were energy crises, these crises were due to reduction in the supplies of crude oil. This time we have numerous crises that are not just confined to artificial supply disruptions. This time these energy crises have focused on the usual suspects such as oil supply, natural gas production, and electrical generation. However, this problem extends to even more basic areas of concern such as the shortages in refining, hydrocarbon transport, and electrical transmission that have exaggerated the current energy crisis into a series of panicky rolling crises. The decaying grid of basic electrical infrastructure is not sufficient to handle any new significant increase in electrical supply (as if any new supply will be coming online anytime soon).

HOW DID WE DO THIS - AGAIN? - WILL WE EVER LEARN?

The US economy will suffer as a result. Slowing economic growth may result in less energy consumption accompanied by a corresponding drop in energy prices. Higher energy prices will likely result in energy conservation. It is called the free market. Under utility regulation there are price caps that provide no incentive for energy conservation and a worsening of the crisis. Bottom line - energy is a limiting factor on economic growth and if steps to upgrade basic infrastructure are not taken immediately, then energy crises are likely to become a commonplace fact of life well known in the Third World. Each ensuing energy crisis is likely to cripple the system and consumer confidence as each rolling energy crisis becomes progressively more frequent and more severe. Just imagine what that means for the US and even the global economy! The system is under severe stress as there has been no incentive to upgrade or add capacity. It is unfortunately too late as I believe that it would take Herculean efforts never before seen in the history of man to overcome years of apathy and neglect. The old decaying electrical grid is in a sorry state of disrepair and is especially vulnerable to even the slightest malfunction which in turn produces greater stress on the system. It also goes well beyond electricity. Many of you may remember last summer when there was a midwest gasoline pipeline that was out of commission for a couple of weeks. The result was the loss of 200,000 bbl/day supply. The result was that in Chicago there were 1970's-style gas lines and closed gas stations.

Today, California suffers the indignity of living under energy conditions found in the Third World. Limited capacity to deliver electricity and natural gas to fuel power plants has pushed utility rates higher in the face of botched deregulation, in spite of price caps on regulated businesses. The result so far is the bankruptcy of the state's largest utility PG&E and the near bankruptcy of the next largest utility SoCal Edison. In order to add a little more electricity to the western grid, the Northwest aluminum industry agreed to close up shop for the next two years and sell their juice to the poor Californians. Although the state of California has had to face the music and admit that they royally screwed up, they only now have begun to add new electricity generation facilities. Guess what? They screwed this up as well. Not only are they threatening out of state producers and suppliers with criminal penalties and lawsuits based on perceived price gouging, they now are building NG-fired power plants without ensuring that they have the fuel to power them. True, no one has ever accused these budding rocket scientists in Sacramento of having much intelligence, but one would have to question the wisdom of a "build it and they will come" strategy when natural gas is in short supply and in high demand.

Other problems that will adversely affect the energy crisis are new age environmental policies and taxation. The various grades of EPA mandated fuels that are required from region to region also ensure that a uniform standard gasoline does not exist. This results in supply disruptions and higher costs for reformulated fuels. This also means that the market is forced to raise prices and impose disruptive demand reductions to bring demand in line with supply. Taxation also impedes progress toward developing supply and infrastructure. In the 1970's during the "oil shocks" when energy companies were making profits there was the incentive to upgrade and expand infrastructure and develop hydrocarbon production capacity. However, the US government responded with "Windfall Profits" taxes. Upgrades and infrastructure expansion promptly ended. There are now calls from some radicals for new "Windfall Profits" taxes to punish those who provide energy to the public. This threat has so far done some damage as energy producers, providers, and marketers wait for direction rather than expand energy supply. So here we are with a severe energy crisis that will take down the US and possibly the global economy.

OK, WE�RE SCREWED, SO NOW WHAT?

There is not much that can be done by the individual to avoid the energy crisis. However, one could take steps to soften the blow from the economic fallout. Unless one is wealthy enough to retrofit their home for electricity generation with renewable energy sources, store hydrocarbons for home generators, or simply can well afford the higher costs of energy when there are no blackouts, then prepare for living as your ancestors did. Buy blankets, firewood, candles, batteries, lanterns, etc.

The basic necessities are the most critical such as food, water, and shelter. This is easy of course and takes minimal thought and preparation. I am not suggesting that anyone dig a bunker, crouch down with firearms, and guard their supplies from marauding hordes. I am simply suggesting that the economy may be in such disarray that the store shelves may not always be stocked if basic supplies cannot be delivered due to restricted fuel supplies. What should happen if one were to be unemployed for an extended period as the economy reels from the effects of the energy crisis. What about natural disasters that can restrict access to market or keep supplies from reaching the market. The average city supermarket keeps about 3 days of food stuffs in inventory - something to think about. I am not suggesting anyone get used to military-style MREs either. Just buy supplies of type of foodstuffs that you and yours would consume anyway - just have some extra on hand just in case. It is simple basic survival insurance. Besides, a typical American family could save a bit of cash by buying in bulk at a Costco or food warehouse for example. A few jugs of water with a drop or two of Clorox bleach can keep water potable for several months and inhibit the growth of microbes. These are just commonsense preparations.

There is of course the portfolio insurance aspect that we here have discussed before. These preparations sound much like Y2K mania doesn't it? I guess it comes down to one's comfort level and how well one can sleep at night should the undesirable effects of the energy crisis come to fruition. Most have cash invested in IRA's, 401K's, mutual funds, stocks, and bonds. When the economy falters and when one should need funds the most, this is the time when one's investments are likely to be under severe stress. Remember the Deflationary Great Depression? Well, maybe not. During the Great Depression, private gold ownership was illegal, however, Homestake Mining stock as a gold proxy saved some investors from financial ruin. Even the dividends rose substantially enough that some lucky investors were able to come though relatively unscathed with preservation of capital. Remember the stagflationary 1970's during the 2 recent oil shocks? Yeah, that's more likely. Remember how the markets tanked, everyone was wearing WIN (Whip Inflation Now) buttons, and fuel prices rocketed higher with long waits in long gasoline lines? Well, here again gold did very well. This time private gold ownership was legal and those who had gold were able to preserve their wealth and sail through those turbulent times relatively unscathed as well. In fact every postwar recession has been preceded by an energy crisis.

CONCLUSION

This energy crisis will surpass the last energy crises as outlined in the preceding paragraphs. Only this energy crisis is likely to precipitate an economic collapse that will surpass any economic crisis ever encountered in modern times. In spite of what new age economists may want to believe, it was "cheap" energy that fueled the Market Miracle of the 1990's. Unfortunately those in power squandered the golden opportunity with inept leadership. When additional energy sources needed to be cultivated and infrastructure upgraded and expanded, our leaders were asleep at the wheel. The mantra was that energy is no longer important with a "New Economy" and that "Pie in the Sky" fantasy has been proven to be a mere mirage. It is too late for any rescue without an aggressive vigorous expansion of hydrocarbon production, upgrade and expansion of energy infrastructure in the energy sector, relaxation of environmental regulations, and removal of punitive energy and profits taxes. For the individual, there is only preparation to meet basic survival needs and to insure one's portfolio with hard assets such as gold for wealth preservation. Indeed - this energy crisis really is different this time - it's going to be much worse than was anticipated. Why do you think that both George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, both oil industry insiders, are scared to death of this new energy crisis?

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/13/2001; 00:59:55 MDT - Msg ID: 53503)

Energy Industry Raises Production at a Record Pace

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nyt/20010512/ts/energy_industry_raises_production_at_a_record_pace_1.html
Snippit:

The energy industry is drilling for natural gas, building gas pipelines and constructing power plants in response to high energy prices. The intense activity comes as President Bush prepares to unveil a national strategy to address what he has called an energy crisis. The policy is expected to emphasize streamlining of regulations, many of them intended to protect the environment, that Bush administration officials say have caused an alarming gap in energy supplies.

Black Blade: As I mentioned in the previous post, the only way out is an aggressive vigorous campaign of exploration and production of hydrocarbons and the building of infrastructure. Still, I believe that it is a matter of too little - too late.

Black Blade

(05/13/2001; 01:11:27 MDT - Msg ID: 53504)

Gas price linked to additive

http://www.contracostatimes.com/partners/nf/gasprices_20010512.htm
Bush could waive rule to add corn-based ethanol to clean the state's fuel

Snippit:

Just when it seemed California's energy picture couldn't get any dimmer, the specter of even higher gas prices is looming. President Bush, who has already angered Californians with his electricity policies, is expected to decide soon whether the state can opt out of the Environmental Protection Agency's rules to add an oxygenate to the gasoline supply. Without a waiver, refineries will be forced to add a corn-based product called ethanol to gasoline, a move California Energy Commission officials predict could increase prices at the pump by 3 cents a gallon.

Black Blade: Waive environmental restrictions on reformulated fuels in California? It stands to reason. Environmentalism is fashionable until it hits one's pocketbook. Then it loses its appeal.

How does that old Cheech and Chong song go? - Oh yeah, "Save the whales - shoot the seals."

Black Blade

(05/13/2001; 01:32:17 MDT - Msg ID: 53505)

Customers vent to state about rising power rates

http://www0.mercurycenter.com/partners/docs1/038284.htm
Snippit:

State regulators got an earful about their coming electric rate increase Friday, first from business groups concerned about the effects on companies and the economy, then from South Bay residents who said they are already feeling pinched by high energy costs.

``We don't have an energy crisis,'' Morgan Hill resident Vincent Scott Fiorenza, 31, told Lynch at the meeting at the San Jose DoubleTree Hotel. ``I think we have a leadership crisis when power companies are allowed to gouge. . . . What is being done to protect us from this fraud?''

Black Blade: Yeah, cheap energy is a guaranteed right. Utes are charities and should provide free energy to all. Amazing that there are still those who think that the energy crisis does not exist and that it is contrived by the energy companies for profit.

One should do a study on the high energy costs of the underground economy. Since this article is from California, maybe a study on the higher costs of the energy intensive indoor cannabis growing industry (California's number one cash crop). Will they use a hedonic deflator and instead factor in a replacement commodities such as Psylicibin mushrooms (hallucinogenic magic mushrooms) that require no indoor lighting? Hey if hedonic pricing is good enough for the BLS phoney baloney PPI and CPI inflation data, then why not for Californian farmers?

Black Blade

(05/13/2001; 01:39:16 MDT - Msg ID: 53506)

Brazilian Candlemakers Smiling

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20010511/bs/brazil_energy_crunch_1.html
Snippit:

SAO PAULO, Brazil (AP) - As Latin America's biggest country braces for daily power cuts of up to four hours, Brazilians are gloomy. They fear increased street crime, riskier hospital visits and long walks up stairs in high-rise condos. Some even say rationing could plunge the country into recession.

Black Blade: Speaking of the Third World, just substitute California in place of Brazil in the article. See any similarities? Nuff said.

Golden Dreams all.

Turnaround

(05/13/2001; 02:28:09 MDT - Msg ID: 53507)

food chains

Journeyman (05/12/01; 15:17:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 53483)

"Apparently I've been left out of this discussion as far as the
"big boys" go for some reason. However for those of you, now
officially four, I believe - - - Turnaround said he reads my
posts sometimes - - -"

I said I read most all of this stuff, J-man included. I type really slow and think even slowlier so can't contribute much. Usually it takes more than I can muster just to grok. Lately it's been like watching a team tennis match with 15 balls in action around here.

=====

Trail Guide (05/12/01; 09:57:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 53470)
"Well, that's fair enough. We Westerners play at this game of currency cheating, but don't want others to think of it [in] that context. Further, if something is wrong, it was the fault of that big government and banking cabal that I never had anything to do with???
(smile)"

+
PH in LA (5/10/01; 10:49:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 53345)
"Once earned, the individual needs somewhere to put his savings where
he can have control over them... somewhere beyond the managers' inflationary reach. In our system of voluntary slavery, they hold our noses to the grindstone and make us all work out our lifetimes. -"

+
Hill Billy Mitchell (05/11/01; 10:12:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 53413)
Mr Gresham @ # 53407
"Sir,

The following was in quotes in your post:

"Overall debt to cash flow levels in the EU are far lower than they are in the US, but on the other hand, much US household debt is not intended as borrowing so much as it is a hedge against the dollar." End of quote.

"Were you saying this or are you quoting ORO or someone else? I take exception to the statement no matter who has said it. American households have been borrowing money hand over fist since the 1993 approximate. It has been debt of little purpose other than consumption. Our nation of household borrowers has been borrowing for current consumption, period."

+?
ORO (05/11/01; 11:34:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 53418)
HBM - not Big Float

"If oil can be paid for in Euro (or Yen) the Triffin deficit will shift to these countries where industries will hollow out, trade deficits burgeon exponentially, and reserves will be wiped out in under one decade while import price inflation in the US wipes out what little trust the dollar retains at home (much less than people say they have and why empty
nester boomers have 3 empty bedrooms and a Rec room stuffed with unused exercise equipment)."

Some of the borrowing, or even the bulk of it, goes toward consumables, but there is merit in the idea that Americans are already pricing in inflation by borrowing. I'll gladly pay you next Tuesday in tiny little dollars for something real today. The Credit Bubble (or equivalently Debt Bubble) has priced a lot of savers out of durable goods and real estate. The combination of tax and fiat slavery has made it impossible for an even larger class of producers to bank anything at all. So what do you do?

With gold (and commodities) in a twenty-year bear there is no safe store of value for the middle class. Socialist Security tax steals and squanders what might have been put away for retirement; most younger people realize they will never receive a pension from it. I've had many conversations on this in addition to reading studies and poll results. The people I've talked with can rarely put their finger on any of the reasons for this. They often just say it's a gut feeling.

So sure, "we Westerners play at this game of currency cheating" to one degree or other, but most are not too consciously aware of it. I've never heard a political debate over some foreign intervention du jour get interrupted with "but don't forget, we trade little pieces of paper with them for real stuff'. Our slaves are higher up the food chain than their slaves.

(05/13/2001; 06:14:25 MDT - Msg ID: 53508)

food chains in imitation of Turnaround

Trail Guide says "Had they done their credit business with the wife's father-in-law, they would have been hanging from the nearest tree".

:) ...lot's of loughter!... :)

Trail Guide also says "Again, the secret to navigating through changing times is not allowing others to control you. Indeed 90% of that power comes by controlling your own financial assets. None of us has to lose to experience change, but we must change not to experience loss".

As long as there is a safe distance in between, the man is a wonder to watch - with respect.

In passing, I still think that the classical gold standard is the best monetary regime I know of. Brave Old Fiat died, long live the Brave New Fiat politics makes me feel sad.

Humble Pie

(05/13/2001; 06:40:22 MDT - Msg ID: 53509)

Letter fron ANOTHER

Trailguide/Foa Is this the day we will be treated to the letter from Another ? Have enjoyed all your post'and the give and take on the forum on the gold/fiat subject.

SteveH

(05/13/2001; 07:34:59 MDT - Msg ID: 53510)

Facts

In discussing many of the issues brought up at this forum with my friends and family, one issue always comes to light: facts. To say that gold will go to $10K per ounce soon, raises eyebrows and immediately loose credibility for the messenger. Why? Facts. To say that an energy crisis will doom our economy is a conclusion, not necessarily correct. What are the facts? When I have been caught in the conclusion vs. fact argument I have been forced to say, "Well, let's deal with the facts then."

When I read ORO, I get bombarded with facts and often times don't know what the conclusion is or was. So, facts can lead to many conclusions. Conclusions should never lead to facts.

The more neutral language remains in providing facts, making arguments from said facts, the broader the audience will be. When I forward a post from here or Kitco or gold-eagle to friends, I find the ones that get the most respect are the ones with the most facts, more neutral language. The ones that draw severe conclusions tend to be scoffed. That doesn't mean the conclusions are wrong, it just finds a larger critic.

Sometimes the larger the critic, the greater the convert the person will become. Converted to what, though? A friend told me and rightfully so, that the reason "you people" are so adament about this gold thingy is because you want the price of gold to rise and are trying to make that happen. He was right. We do want the price of gold to rise. In my case, I told him that the reason my passion is so great on this "thingy" is because I have lost so much money due to a continually falling gold price and wanted to understand why it was that gold continued to fall. I told him that there was nothing wrong with desiring a more free market in gold. He fails to understand why the US can not intervene in the gold market. He sees this as a logical extension of the power of the US to protects its interest. In a sense, he is correct. The issue with gold has been that governments don't oficially recognize it as a reserve (except for the Euro now) and yet "play" it as though it is. This dichotomy of commodity vs. money aspect of gold and how the G-7 play this is the issue.

Bill Murphy knows of this dichotomy. He believes that the government can not treat a commodity like a money without calling it money, which they fail to do, especially in light of the ESF allegedly suppressing gold, the commodity, because it will affect the dollar, the money.

The problem with the facts are that they are much the same as though that allow us to understand that stars twinkle and planets don't. We know of Universal bodies because of indirect evidence and facts that lead to other facts. Spectrum analysis and mathematics tells us much of our Universe. In the matter of the gold market, we have overwhelming amounts of circumstantial evidence that leaves us with little concrete information that leaves us with little choice but to grasp for straws at times.

The biggest reaction most have when discussing gold's role in international monetary affairs is that it doesn't. Few pundits admit or acknowledge gold plays any role whatsoever in international monetary matters. That it does, based on circumstantial evidence, merely discredits any conclusions of those who fail to properly factor gold's role. Most of the direct information on gold in the media tends to act as a contrarian indicator to the notion that gold isn't dead. The amount of negative press on gold simply highlights the above denial of policy makers have towards gold. They eschew gold's role, but in a way that is too strong. When things don't matter, they are ignored. When things matter but counter the status quo, the argument will always be adament denial and skepticism.

In my most recent discussions on the matter of gold and the world economy, the first reaction has been gold doesn't matter any more. It just doesn't matter. When I ask, "why is that?"

The response is "Because gold is a commodity like anything else." I say, "Then why is it that the G-7 central banks still hold gold as a reserve?" They answer, "Because if things go into high inflation or a world crisis, we still need gold." Hmmm.

So, I urge all of us to stick with the facts, tone down our conclusions that are based on the facts with neutral language and a conservative basis, because then we will have a better chance of bring back a free gold market that may help recompense us for our losses, since, as is my case, I don't want to cut my losses an move on.

Christian

(05/13/2001; 07:58:24 MDT - Msg ID: 53511)

The Gold Business

Those in the gold business are in the gold business to profit. Hedge firms are borrowing central banks gold and selling it to themselves to use it for credit creation gold valued at ten times commodity price. For many hedge firms it is a means of accumulating cheap gold which they borrow from central banks with no intention of returning it. These hedge firms sold the gold to themselves and are forcing the central banks to buy gold still in the ground at the cheapest possible price to replace the borrowed gold. Capital and power is being forced to sell out to gold credit creation hands. Most central banks have no way out but to increase their paper gold short position and somehow get the general public to buy their worthless stock at a grossly inflated price. 1/3 of all stocks listed worldwide have a net income less then what the chief excecutive officer makes. There are chief excecutive officers of major corporations who make $160 million or more working for companies whose net earnings are under $100 million. Most stock holders are brain dead. There is a reason for wall street to tell you to hold on to your stocks while they themselves are selling those shares. They want you to sell after the stock is delisted.

Journeyman

(05/13/2001; 08:26:15 MDT - Msg ID: 53512)

Human nature and the gold standard @Trail Guide, ORO, beesting, Turnaround, ALL

I excerpted the following from -Trail Guide (05/12/01; 22:36:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 53498):

"Why do you think there were banks at all, back then? They existed to provide a service private people would not perform very much of,,,,,,, lend gold. Back then, nobody wanted to lend their money. Not to strangers, not to schisters,,,, and certainly not to family members (smile). Gold money was cash money and credit wasn't offered in mass. People were suspicious of each other and rightly so. We are all a bunch of crooks! Ha! Ha!"

and further down:

"Is it structured into human society that political representatives be crooks?" -ORO quoted by Trail Guide
"Almost as large a percentage as the electorate that chooses them." -Trail Guide

Two quick comments:

1. According to Trail Guide, "Gold money was cash money and credit wasn't offered in mass."

So, you didn't borrow against future hours of your life to go to a fancy resaurant (and give more of your future hours to banksters in the form of interest). Instead you saved-up from the past hours of your production, had the same meal in that fancy restaurant - - - and _didn't_ pay interest to the banking establishment. You kept the amount you would have paid in interest - - - which gave you the appetizer in next month's fancy dinner. What's wrong with that? (Of course! - - - The bankers don't like it!)

Perhaps, you're thinking, "But there would be no money available for capital equipment and development. How then do you explain that the period up thru 1913 (the year we clandestinely went off the gold standard because of the passage of the Federal Reserve Act) was perhaps the most prosperous in American history with a growth rate well above 4% per year? Without modern credit, people would indeed be more careful what they gambled on, ah, invested in, but history strongly suggests that didn't mean they didn't gamble, ah, invest. There probably would not have been a .com mania, etc., if we were still on the gold standard. What's wrong with that?

2. I don't know who Trail Guide has been hanging-out with these days, but I do know that while I've run across crooks in my day, there are nowhere near the percentage of crooks among my friends and family - - or even among my acquaintences - - as there are in Washington D.C.

Further, even the crooks in D.C. are usually crooks for a good cause - - - from their own viewpoint. They're taking care of their own. But because of our biology, "their own" are _primarily_ their family and face-to-face acquaintences (lobbists), not the faceless constituents they only know exist by vote totals.

Thus even most politicians aren't an indictment of human nature, which is much nicer than we think these days. It's merely a mistaken belief that our small-group instincts which we've inherited from our hunter-gatherer ancestors, will work in large groups, but fail miserably when we attempt to make them work in these larger groups --- because we take care of our small face-to-face groups FIRST, often at the expense of the wider population.

Of course, there are those with hierarchical tendencies . . . (too far afield)

At any rate, the implicit conflict between our small face-to-face groups is way more than ameliorated by the "division of labor" and "comparative advantage" of trade. Thus "when goods cross borders, troops don't."

By the way beesting, AWSOME series of posts from Ron Paul and your commentary!!!!

SO, those things that facillitate trade increase the general well-being and decrease inter-group strife. That's one of the main reasons, if you care, you want a return to transactional gold.

Regards,
Journeyman

Camel

(05/13/2001; 10:27:51 MDT - Msg ID: 53513)

Who is John Galt?

Trail guide- Your just going to wear yourself out trying to debate with Oro because what your dealing with is much more akin to a religion than an economic theory.

I don't know if Ann Rand had become a cult figure when you were in college, but we had a small cadre of Libertarians where I went to school in the 60's and they are nice enough people except they have a very tightly drawn ideology thats hard to get around.

Lets see. Its been so long .Atlas Shrugged. Isn't that the bible of Libertarians. John Galt has established a small Utopian community somewhere up in some isolated mountain and has recruited indidviuals with various skills and talents to interact and this setting provides a vehicle for Rands economic theories and world view. Wasnt there some famous monologue by John Galt somehere in there that goes on and on about the socialists and I believe even the Christains were not spared her wrath. They were the two arch enemies of humanity.- As far as I can see Oro's economic ideas have never departed much from the basic ideas laid out in John Galts monologue, except that he is attempting to apply it on a macro- economic scale.

Sorry Oro .Been there and done that.Those Utopian communities don't work because human nature is not set up that way. Human nature in small groups is much more akin to the interaction of a pack of dogs.Eternal bikering. It doesn't mater what its about, because each individual feels a sense of discomfort if they are not in control. Its just hard wired that way and very few have enough self knowledge or insight to get beyond that. You can't extrapolate from Rands Utopian community into the broader world because her basic premise is false or at least incomplete to such a degree that its unreal. You would be sitting around all day trying to put a square peg into a round hole. It just wont fit.

So much of this type of debate seems akin to asking how many angels can dance on the head of a pin. Surely we are getting close to the time when the Arabs will begin accepting the Euro as payment for oil. At least that is a proposition that can be tested. Even if the world begins to keep half dollars and half euos as their reserve along the lines of what has been proposed in Argentina then great amounts of dollar denominated assets will be sold and be replaced by euro denominated assets. But wouldn't that require a huge increase in the supply of euros to match the "big float"of the dollar, and if the European central banks keep the 15% gold backing for the euro then they will be buying gold to match the increased volume of euros.

Of course Cheney has completely destroyed his credibility by nay saying energy efficiancy and conservation. Cheney is not an oilman he is a political hack.He never even worked a summer job in the oil industry before taking over at Haliburton, and the way I hear it he ran the company into the ground ..I would almost be willing to bet he has never even heard of Cambell . Never even heard of him! Why don't you come on down here to Texas and drill .There's plenty of oil down here if we could just get the government off our back. Baloney!!!!! The oil is GONE, and the government didn't cause this except in the sense that it didn't take timely action to prevent the exhaustion of our resourses.

There is said to be substantial amounts of oil in the Gulf of Mexico and the artic that can provide a short term fix but after that what.? To me it all seems very similar to what was done to the buffalo. It is the mindless, rapacious destruction of nature and to quote a line from the Dylan masterpiece of the sixties, "Its a hard rain thats going to fall".

David Linkley

(05/13/2001; 10:30:44 MDT - Msg ID: 53514)

A Fifty Tonne Default

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010509/n09575235.htmlReuters: Some linked the [gold] buying to jitters about overhedging by failed Australian producer Centaur Mining and Exploration Co. Ltd., encircled by creditors after entering receivership in March."There has been a lot of volume coming across the ring," said Donald Tierney of Pell Brothers Futures. "People are coming off the phones for orders for 100, 200, 300 (contracts) at a clip. The market has come alive with this story." Hedging is used by many gold companies and can help them when prices stay weak. Through forward sales and options, a producer can generate cash flow and cushion its unmined gold reserves from the effects of a falling market price.

Meanwhile, the oversold position of the market has been halved in recent weeks of gold firmness. Some of Wednesday's fund buying will likely go against the 27,970 contract net speculative short recorded last Tuesday.

Wednesday's adjustments came amid anticipation of Tuesday's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting and Britain's bullion auction the same day, which will open the final round of smaller 20-tonne sales.

With short-term gold lease rates holding above 2 percent and expectations of additional U.S. interest rate cuts to spur growth, yield differentials are skewed in favor of gold, having recently promoted the move to 17-month bullion lows.

-------------------------------------

Linkley Note: While "hedging," the practice of selling gold production forward, might be a "cushion" for some, it can be a bed of nails for others, since the gold sold forward is borrowed and someday needs to be repaid. Centaur Mining and Exploration, the Australian company which sold forward nearly ten years of its production under the guidance of its bullion bankers, has gone bankrupt. The presumption that the borrowed would be repaid out of the ground has been turned on its head. Production has now been halted by the company and no one knows where the 1.61 million ounces of gold -- over 50 tonnes of the yellow metal -- is going to come from to repay the lenders, or, amidst the confusion of bankruptcy proceedings, if its going to be repaid at all.

JMB

(05/13/2001; 10:44:57 MDT - Msg ID: 53515)

JOURNEYMAN

If you desire "transactional gold", how can you expect your future theoretical model to function efficiently, unless you price goods and services in terms of gold? e.g., "One Man's Suit" will cost 1 oz. and "Dinner for Two at McDonald's" will cost 1 gram.

R Powell

(05/13/2001; 11:31:02 MDT - Msg ID: 53516)

Max Rabbitz / Centaur default

The Austrialian mining company, Centaur, after filing for bankruptcy, will probably default on part or all of it's 1.6 million ounce gold loan. This gold was probably sold forward for operating capital and is now gone. What recourse the lender has depends on the bankruptcy laws of that country but, if the sold forward gold originated from a central bank and passed through a bullion bank (brokerage), then the default by Centaur does not negate the bullion bank's obligation to eventually return the 50+ tons of gold.
Max asked in #53494, "If going to be bankrupt and bondholders step up to be paid, why must those old hedges be unwound or bought?" My quess is Centaur will do just that, leaving the brokerage lender to face the Central bank repayment obligation. More pressure boiling under the market. The bullion banks will be looking at the problem of replacing the 50 tons without upseting the market or panicing the other big short positions. In other words, it must be done without raising the POG. As always, this is just one opinion.
Rich

Elwood

(05/13/2001; 11:56:56 MDT - Msg ID: 53517)

Camel (5/13/01; 10:27:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 53513)

Camel,
A is A. But human nature is whatever you want it to be. This was Rand's message, and, to me, it is a better way to orient your world outlook. Perhaps the philosophy is "hard to get around" because there is no logical basis for its refutation, thus the retreat into the "human nature" ramblings and unsubstantiated statements such as "the oil is GONE".

---------------

Trail Guide, is it your belief that the gold debt denomination will not take place at all or just that it will occur outside the official system? (I think you're on record as saying it won't occur.) Unless this debt denomination is flatly outlawed I think it will pop up and expand.

It's like today when you open a savings account. The bank is "allowed" to delay withdrawals for up to 30 days, but, of course, none of them do that. I think it's pretty certain that there will be a demand. If it is allowed, it will exist I would think, and eliminating the legally-enforced contractual obligations to pay will create an entire "underworld" industry to enforce these contracts. Reference the contractual enforcement measures of the drug industry, but this would not be as limited in scope as that. Markets have a way of working around man's limitations on them. It's "human nature."

Elwood

Peter Asher

(05/13/2001; 12:09:34 MDT - Msg ID: 53518)

Rich & Max & Dave

Dave, good to see you back, not much left of the "Class of �98."

The question of Centurar's 50 tons would I think hinge on who gets ownership of the in-ground asset. IF the holder of the �Paper Gold� now being held over the flame (We knew this was coming, didn't we?) has a senior claim to the mine assets rather then being subject to debt apportionment, then they are only out the hard costs of mining for the first 50 tons and eventually could recoup on the profit beyond that.

Of course this assumes that even free from debt, the ore can be mined at a profit. If not, then the Gold lenders deserve the results of their mathematical stupidity.

Peter Asher

(05/13/2001; 12:17:04 MDT - Msg ID: 53519)

JMB & Journeyman, ORO & TG

The answer could lie in this:

Instead of thinking of pricing things in terms of Gold; think in terms of pricing Gold in things

Black Blade

(05/13/2001; 12:50:55 MDT - Msg ID: 53520)

Power Industry May Face Boom-Bust Cycle

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010513/business_utilities_usa_plants_dc.html
Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - The U.S. power industry, which has embarked on a $140 billion building spree to avoid more California-style blackouts, could see that boom turn bust, with too many megawatts chasing too little demand, industry analysts warn.

Black Blade: Interesting article, yet the author is quite careful to ignore the fact that building power plants accomplishes nothing if there is insufficient fuel available to generate power. Once built, these monoliths will serve as nothing more than idle monuments to the folly of man unless these strategic planners can deliver the necessary fuels. Wasn't it these very same analysts that completely missed the boat on energy matters that led to the current crisis? Hmmm� How bad will this recession get? We live in "interesting times."

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/13/2001; 12:58:37 MDT - Msg ID: 53521)

Turnaround @ # 53507

Sir, you say:

"I'll gladly pay you Tuesday in tiny little dollars for something real today."

Not so! Americans are gladly paying Tuesday in tiny little dollars for hamburgers, clothing and oodles and oodles of consumables, but are buying very little in the way of hard assets. They are borrowing against what little equity they have in hard assets to continue the consumption binge. There is no savings (excluding tax sheltered paper investements) which would hardly qualify as hard assets. Household savings are nonexistent and have been for some time. Maybe I should be more clear. Real tangible (durable) assets are assets which will last longer than the loans against them as follows:

Maytag or Speed Queen washers and dryers
Antique furniture
Antique works of art
Precious metals
Diamonds (wholesale)
Guns and ammo
Fuel and water storage facilities
Unimproved real estate (not a good option at this time as mostly overpriced)

The following are not real tangible (durable) assets which will not hold value beyond the hopes of liquidation of debt against them -- consumables:

New automobiles
Food
Entertainment
Vacations

Nothing all inclusive in the above, just trying to make a point.

If any signigicant hedging against the dollar were going on gold and silver bugs would not complaining about POG and POS. Households will not significantly take part in hedging in this way this time around. There was some household savings with to participate in the 70's but there is nothing in the way of household savings available today. Also as I have said before, the brains to take advantage in this type of hedging have been sufficiently dumbed down. It aint gonna happen this time.

Very respectfully,

HBM

PS: In order to borrow money to by real tangibles one must have some sort of down payment. Not so with cosumables. Go figure.

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/13/2001; 13:02:39 MDT - Msg ID: 53522)

Leigh @ # 53464

Thanks for your post. Will reply with another post at a later date. Off to see my mother. I think Michael loves you because of the warmth you add to this forum.

Yours

HBM

Black Blade

(05/13/2001; 13:03:39 MDT - Msg ID: 53523)

Thrill Is Gone for Productivity

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010513/business_economy_productivity_miracle_dc.html
Snippit:

A Labor Department report on Tuesday showing first-quarter productivity fell for the first time in six years left some wondering whether the miracle was a mirage. Though it is still too soon to say for sure, some analysts saw the new data as proof the surge in productivity was ''cyclical'' or temporary, a byproduct of the booming economy. If that is the case, the Federal Reserve may be hesitant to cut interest rates much further to revive the economy.

Productivity in January-March fell 0.1 percent at an annual rate compared to a 2.0 percent rise in the fourth quarter of 2000 and a recent peak at 6.3 percent in April-June 2000. Faster productivity growth in the last five years had been credited with holding down wage inflation while increasing the potential growth rate -- the rate at which the Fed thinks the economy can expand without much inflation. Without strong productivity gains, the threat of stagflation -- slow growth with rising inflation -- would rise, some argued. That could create resistance to the Fed continuing to cut interest rates aggressively.

Black Blade: A case for stagflation? Hmmm� What will Cheetah and the other Fed monkeys do next? Sounds like "Bungle in the Jungle" time.

turbohawg

(05/13/2001; 13:15:59 MDT - Msg ID: 53524)

ET, ORO

One might split the fiat vs sound money promoters on this forum into two gold bug camps: those who are looking at what gold can do for them and those who are looking at what freedom can do for them. It's curious to this silent onlooker that the fiat promoters can so easily overlook the fact that without freedom they may find restricted the utility of their gold, yet again. Oh, but with this statement by FOA from the Gold Trail as already noted by ET �

"Keeping gold out of the fiat arena would be more simple than many hard school advocates envision. The key to that is found in the implementation of international law. The leading economic countries (EuroZone in the future) would have but to establish a protocol that forbid the enforcement of collateral attachment anytime physical gold is traded, lent or involved in a trade."

� restricting (or losing ?) the utility of one's gold seems to be exactly what FOA, wittingly or unwittingly, is endorsing with his encouragement to slip our necks out of one fiat noose into Another.

It's acknowledged that the introduction of the euro may lead to more fiat convulsions and, at some point, help counteract on a relatively short term basis a break in the dollar. But that's no reason to grant blind acceptance to an instrument of elitist control. Quite the contrary. The ongoing breakdown of the fiat system and the socialist govts it supports should be recognized as a rare opportunity to disembowel centralized control and return power to the individual. Kick�em while they're down. Wouldn't this be the message of one truly looking out for the best interests of others ?

No thanks. We don't need no stinkin� fiat !

ET, your posts throughout this debate and before have demonstrated that you have an in-depth grasp of money and freedom. As one whose circle of friends includes many whose lives are dedicated to the advancement of freedom, I must say that you take a backseat to no one in your ability to make the case.

ORO, from �

ORO (05/12/01; 00:19:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 53458)
FOA - NO OFFICIAL MONEY NEED BE DEFINED
FOA, you are missing the point of my disaffection entirely. In my preferred rendition of a monetary system, there is no particular official money, just a legal recognition of a commonly accepted money (and no limitation on it being only one or many, if the markets leave one surviving money � probably gold � fine, if not then two or more are fine). Bankers have no charters, and their liabilities stand on their own. This is not a gold standard unless it turns into one.

� your point has been quite clear all along. One has to conclude that the failure to recognize it has been intentional. Is that failure due simply to the inability or unwillingness to argue the logic (perhaps because of an acceptance of serfdom) or because of an agenda that seeks to ensure that a certain banking and political clique retains its power to enslave and manipulate ?

You guys, along with Journeyman, Turnaround, et al, carry on. You may not change the thinking or the agenda of the statists in our midst, but you do bring a very important counter argument to those who may be led astray.

Apologies to FOA if my characterizations and suspicions are wrong, but I don't think they're unfounded.

SHIFTY

(05/13/2001; 13:17:54 MDT - Msg ID: 53525)

old news articles on gold price

Who posted them ??? FARFEL ? ?I have not been able to keep up with all that is going on here at the forum since I got home last week.
While reading the news stories about GATA today, I am reminded of the news articles someone posted here about a year ago. Sorry I cant remember who it was. They were from back in the 70s. There was one that stands out in my mind. I remember it saying something about how the gold price could never double to $70.00 an ounce. I think it would be nice to read those articles again to compare with the media spin we are being treated to today.
Does anyone know who it was that posted those jewels?

How about a repost?

$hifty

Black Blade

(05/13/2001; 13:33:59 MDT - Msg ID: 53526)

Natural Gas Inventory Rise May Lower Prices

http://www.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AOv1_MBbFTmF0dXJh
Snippits:

Point - Now, utilities across the country are storing away natural gas at a rate that's almost three-times faster than normal to ensure adequate winter supplies for homeowners' furnaces. That pace might make the record prices a dim memory when the cold weather returns this winter. The industry stored 1.74 trillion cubic feet of gas from April to November last year, 12 percent below the average of the previous six years. Storage rates lagged because of the price rally, which was caused by competing demand from power companies that used the fuel to make electricity for air conditioners.

Counterpoint - U.S. gas inventories would rise to 2.9 trillion cubic feet by Nov. 1 if utilities maintained the storage-refill rates of recent weeks. That would put supplies just 3 percent below the 3 trillion cubic feet analysts say is necessary to guard against wintertime shortages. Filling storage depots at the current pace may mean higher prices this summer, said Adam Sieminski, an energy strategist at Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown Inc. in Baltimore.

Something else to consider - Prices rose last summer as new power plants with 22,000 megawatts of gas-fired generating capacity started up -- more than the 21,400 megawatts added between 1995 and 1999, according to a report this week from the U.S. Energy Department's Energy Information Administration. The power plants alone boosted total U.S. gas demand by 500 billion cubic feet, or 2.3 percent, in 2000. Power plants with another 25,000 megawatts of capacity will start up this summer, 14 percent more than the amount added last year.

Black Blade: Not a very rosy outlook no matter the "spin." Demand rising for new generation facilities, consumption at a record pace, storage still unacceptably low, a hotter summer or colder winter and then life becomes "interesting." What is the trade off? Higher prices now for lower prices later? It appears that prices will remain high for quite some time. Higher energy costs will likely push the US economy over the edge. We already see the damage has begun. Get the golden lifeboats ready.

Cavan Man

(05/13/2001; 13:36:06 MDT - Msg ID: 53527)

Camel

Great post. I love AS and keep a copy on my bookshelf but skipped Galt's soliloqy--way too much ideology for its own sake for me. Tried to read Fountainhead but to this simple mind, it was more of the same. Give me something that works and that I can work with. A monetary system that allows for competition of fiat currencies and a free POG where I can translate my labor into safe harbor is a system that I can live with. I realize I cannot live in Utopia (as did Thomas More); 'cause somebody will eventually screw it up.

megatron

(05/13/2001; 13:38:58 MDT - Msg ID: 53528)

Just the FACT

Fact #1; Any power handed over to elected officials/religions decays into tyranny, over time. PERIOD. Knowing this fact, there will NEVER BE a free market in ANYTHING that threatens their control of power. PERIOD. Until there is a complete breakdown of their ability to control the situation.
Fact #2. The battle for control of the worlds reserve currency will be fought in backrooms by sycophantic ELECTED goverment officials, not you and I with our little gold coins, and certainly not 'voters'. One will be nary different than another. Tyranny is tyranny. The amount of gold backing is/will be irrelivant. History has spoken, loudly!
Fact #3. Europeans are not smarter than anyone else.PERIOD. This has been shown time and time again. Because you hold more gold than him does not make you 'smarter' or more egalitarian towards the rable.
Fact #4. Any scheme/idea/dreamworld that allows government into the pricing of a commodity is doomed. PERIOD. They will eventually take it ALL AWAY. Over time. Inflation, fiat currencies,war, tax, you name it.

Gold is the ultimate storage of wealth because it CAN/WILL overcome the following laws, over time. Not until the tribal megalomaniacs lose their grip entirely. And by then a lot of idiots will have parted with their gold buying 'Euros' or some other concoction to separate the wise from the foolish.

Peter Asher

(05/13/2001; 14:07:40 MDT - Msg ID: 53529)

turbohawg msg#: 53524)

BINGO!! " One might split the fiat vs sound money promoters on this forum into two gold bug camps: those who are looking at what gold can do for them and those who are looking at what freedom can do for them."

Re FOA's "to establish a protocol that forbid the enforcement of collateral attachment anytime physical gold is traded, lent or involved in a trade."

That would make gold a VERY unpopular asset to store value in IMO. One of the primary functions of a hard asset in the modern world is to be able to instantly collateralize some spending fiat in an emergency, without parting with the asset.

Deprive Gold of that function and you would REALLY tank it

lamprey_65

(05/13/2001; 14:34:35 MDT - Msg ID: 53530)

History Repeating (Although not exactly)?

...Had a thought yesterday -- could it be that what we are now seeing is a not-so-perfect repeat of the late 60's to mid-70's stock market scenario unfolding? What I mean is in the late 60's we had a tech bubble of sorts (not as ridiculous as the recent bubble by any stretch) which went pop. When this happened, people ran to the big, liquid stocks -- the "nifty fifty"...it was AFTER this set-up that the '73-'74 bear market actually began.

Isn't this what we are now seeing with the Nasdaq fall-off and the DOW left relatively unscathed? Energy crises brewing and gold beginning to stir also.

Time seems to compress in the markets compared to yesteryear...if this is a similar scenario about to hit, I would expect the '73-'74 bear to begin this year or next and the bull market in gold to last 4-5 years (versus the nearly 10 years from the seventies).

Comments?

USAGOLD

(05/13/2001; 15:31:36 MDT - Msg ID: 53531)

Who was it that characterized socialism as "the promise of the serpent?"

http://www.cspc.org/Born into the ardent communist Horowitz family of New York City, David Horowitz edited Ramparts magazine during the 1960s and was quite the socialist for much of his early life. He shed Marxism and converted to the conservative cause about a decade ago. There is little doubt that von Mises and von Hayek played a critical role in his conversion to free market economics. Most recently, he triggered demonstrations at Berkley, his alma mater, when he visited there to speak out against black reparations -- currently a hot political issue on America's campuses.

--------------

From a speech delivered by David Horowitz in Poland 1989:

"Why were we so wrong? Because all of us, Kolakowski* included, had our roots in the intellectual traditions of
the socialist left. Experience had taught us all to be anti-Communist, but our critique of socialism was based
on political theory and political considerations. We knew that totalitarianism was evil, but we thought that
socialism worked. We were wrong. It does not work. Economically, it cannot succeed.

While we were wrong, others all along had been right. All those years, outside the socialist tradition, there
had been voices crying in the wilderness saying that not only would socialism bring tyranny and suffering, it
would not work. Seventy-seven years ago, five years after the Bolshevik triumph, Ludwig von Mises wrote a
book on socialism that predicted the catastrophe we see before us. Socialist economy, he argued, was
economic irrationality, and socialist planning a prescription for chaos. Only a capitalist market could provide a
system of rational allocations and rational accounts. Only private property and the profit motive could unleash
the forces of individual initiative and human creativity to produce real and expanding wealth--not only for the
rich but for society as a whole.

Ludwig von Mises, Friedrich von Hayek, and the other liberal theorists of a free-market economy who warned
of this outcome are the true prophets of the reality we see before us--of socialist bankruptcy and Communist
retreat. Glastnostian democracy has not (and cannot) complete the socialist dream; it can only expose this
dream as a nightmare from which Communism cannot wake up. The only way to wake up is to give up the
dream."

* Leszek Kolakowski was among the first Polish communist intellectuals to see through the false promises of socialism.(1956)
----------

MK: I am not the best of Biblical scholars but I do seem to remember that the promise of the serpent was that eating the fruit of tree would make Eve like God. . . . . a promise to which she succumbed. I was unable to find the exact quote which I took from memory. However, I did find this exchange with Chuck Baldwin in a recent interview:

David Horowitz: Because America is responsible for the atrocious behavior of China. You have to get the radical
mentality. Peter Collier and I have called it the "devil made me do it theory" of history. Why is Castro, who has made his
island an island prison, why is the gross national product lower then it was when he took power, why are they riding
around on bicycles instead of in cars like the rest of the 20th century? Answers: Because of America. It's the United States
blockade. It ignores the fact that the economy was ruined by his Socialist plans. It ignores the fact that the Soviet Union for
years gave Cuba five, six, seven billion dollars in aid per year, even though they only have ten million people. It ignores the
fact that all the rest of the world has traded with Castro from the beginning. It doesn't matter to them. The United States is
responsible. You know, why is China bad, why do they put people in jail, because the bad Capitalists the Imperialists made
China backward.

I was on a radio show yesterday talking about another book that Peter and I have done. One of the callers, a black caller - I
was talking about the affirmative action in the universities. Nobody in his right mind thinks that our liberal colleges are
systemically keeping blacks out, so why do we need affirmative action policies? The answer is, because blacks don't score
well on the tests. And instead of saying, "There's a real problem in the black community of educating its children, let's
blame whitie." So this guys explanation was slavery. You know, come on, how long are we going to blame slavery for all
the problems in the black community. It would be like every time a Jew did something wrong it's because of the Holocaust,
2,000 years of persecution. It doesn't seem to apply to the Vietnamese who come here into an alien culture where they don't
speak the language. I don't see very many Vietnamese protesting about the cultural bias of college admission exams. Yet,
blacks have been here for 350 years, they're complaining that there's a cultural bias in the tests. And nobody will say, this
is nuts, this is whining, this is just the old excuse game.

Chuck Baldwin: It goes back to personal accountability does it not? Liberals hate accountability.

David Horowitz: Well, yes. The whole difference is that liberals are people who believe that society is the root of all evil.
Either they've forgotten or they never believed what they read, hopefully as children in the first chapters of Genesis which
would explain to them that the problem of evil in the world is not society, it's us.

Chuck Baldwin: Exactly.

David Horowitz: Human beings had, not only a socialist paradise but Garden of Eden was better than a socialist
paradise. You didn't have to work, there was no pain, you didn't die. All you had to do was not to do one thing. Human
beings are ornery and they are prone to do bad things. That's why we have religion. That's why we have laws. And liberals
can't seem to get that through their head. They think the problem in our society is law enforcement. The problem is the
criminals.
------------

The link above will take you to Mr. Horowitz' site. I believe you will find him a more than interesting figure in contemporary American culture.

IronHead

(05/13/2001; 15:35:44 MDT - Msg ID: 53532)

Megatron - Recent History and Current Events

Sir Megatron - Your post on fact vs. fiction reminded me of events which occured in SE Asia during the meltdown in that region, as well as Brazil and more recently, Turkey.

Having the opportunity to be in Thailand (Thai, by the way means "free") during the onset of the crises, I had first hand observation of a currency going from 25 baht to the dollar, to 54 baht to the dollar. Friends and business associates whom I was traveling with watched their paper wealth go up in smoke, unless they had the good fortune and foresight to be in hard assets, ie. gold or silver. Thai's really appreciate silver too; smart folks. Not real estate, as that tanked with the rest of the bubble when the Aian Tigers morphed into sleeping kitties. Gold actually was trading well above world spot price, although I don't recall exactly how much higher.

This fiat fornication hit throughout SE Asia as we all became aware, with a cascade that was only halted by the hand of international intervention in the form of additional printing of chits and taking of IOU's. Did those effected people in Asia find solice in one fiat (their's) vs. the stonger fiat (our's) - U.S., Euro, Yuan, whatever? No - it was the yellow dog that saved some. Turkey recently saw the same affect - did the lira vs. euro save many there? I suppose a few might have converted, anticipating the onslaught. But what if one day, the fiat fornicaters can't quite get a handle on a multitude of paper collapses, that breach the printers capability or acceptability?

Perhaps that day could coincide with the day we Americans quit buying enough Porsche, Gucci, and Ducati trinkets to sustain their contagion. Despite the current cost inflation that is starting to slap some sense of reality into the purveyors of milk and honey, Japan is a study in the deflation and depression that will be coming to a street near us all.

Your tribal idiots have lost control very recently as outlined, and gold HAS overcome the fiat pretense of wealth. It has traded on a free and open market with respect to the fiat of the land. Some day it might be the only sense of wealth and freedom, that even advocates will understand.

Oh, that double bottom in silver could align very nicely with Gann cycles, which point toward a silver lining coming in late fall, yes? Which if occures, would really set the stage for gold next year, YES?

Salutations,
IronHead

schippi

(05/13/2001; 16:30:52 MDT - Msg ID: 53533)

Select Gold moves into First place

http://www.SelectSectors.com/agpm120.gifSelect Gold is currently ranked #1 over all
Fidelity's Select 40 sectors. This has not
happened in a very long time.

Al Fulchino

(05/13/2001; 19:27:24 MDT - Msg ID: 53534)

USAGOLD (05/13/01; 15:31:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 53531)

good post

auspec

(05/13/2001; 19:30:06 MDT - Msg ID: 53535)

Out of Africa

Snippet from Murphy/GATA:
"I learned more in a very special Saturday meeting with someone who knows the goings on in Africa. GATA's issues are very important because of the following:

*The Chinese are buying more gold in Africa than is generally known.
*The Chinese are offering billions of dollars in loans to appropriate Africans at very low interest rates - as low as .5%.
*The Chinese are as "cocky" as this person has ever seen them and they are everywhere in Africa.
*The African/Bush Administration relationship is deteriorating. The recent African meeting with Colin Powell did not go well. My source tells me to look out for increasing friction in the near future."

"This is a BIG DEAL and Caf� members have known the reason why for some time now. The Chinese are quietly buying up the gold market. They are smart cookies and surely know what Frank Veneroso told the summit attendees - and that is that the gold loans are 10,000 tonnes to 16,000 tonnes - not the 5,000 tonnes that the gold industry claims is the case. Frank explained the 6 different ways that he came up with the same conclusions - and I hope to have the transcript up at the Caf� of what Frank said sometime very soon."

"That means that the U.S. has a gold national security issue here. Next time, instead of a plane, it might be Taiwan and it might come at a time when our banks are tottering. What if the Chinese come to us and say we want Taiwan or we are going to sell our billions of dollars of reserves and replace them with gold reserves (after quietly and already loading up at cheap, cheap gold prices)?" END

Comment: The Chinese make footprints of Giants?

Canuck

(05/13/2001; 19:56:37 MDT - Msg ID: 53536)

GATA

Awfully quiet; news on the conference?

Canuck

(05/13/2001; 19:59:37 MDT - Msg ID: 53537)

thanks auspec

Leigh

(05/13/2001; 20:27:57 MDT - Msg ID: 53538)

IronHead

IronHead, what are you doing posting here on Mother's Day? Is your mom around? If so, get her to post!

Thanks for the kind words, Cavan Man. I think I caught a glimpse of Mr. Greenspan on the "Green" Trail. He had a lot of blindfolded sheepies chasing after him. He was throwing dollar bills in every direction to divert them, but they wouldn't leave him alone. Here's the thing: I think he couldn't get over to the Gold Trail if he tried. Nobody would let him.

SteveH

(05/13/2001; 21:01:33 MDT - Msg ID: 53539)

Murphy's revelation about Chinese

Didn't Another state a few years back that the Hong Kong Chinese were also buying up all the gold they could get?

megatron

(05/13/2001; 21:25:48 MDT - Msg ID: 53540)

IronHead

Yes silver looks interesting, although it seems more from fundamentals/supply and demand than TA, IMHO

Chris Powell

(05/13/2001; 21:37:11 MDT - Msg ID: 53541)

Durban Daily News reports on GATA conference

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/765A bit less of a sneer than the Mining
Web report.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Chris Powell

(05/13/2001; 21:38:14 MDT - Msg ID: 53542)

GATA Chairman Bill Murphy reports on the Durban conference

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/766Things have just started to happen in
South Africa.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Chris Powell

(05/13/2001; 21:42:34 MDT - Msg ID: 53543)

GATA "quiet"? You gotta be kidding!

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/messagesCanuck, we've issued 18 dispatches in just
the last seven days, many of them about
the Durban conference, before and after.
They're all archived in public here:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/messages

If you're not on our emailing list, please
subscribe. It's easy and you'll hear our
news immediately. Just send an email here:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

We are anything but quiet, and we report the
bad along with the good, as fast as we can,
for free.

Chris Powell

(05/13/2001; 22:16:46 MDT - Msg ID: 53544)

Business Day reports on GATA's conference in Durban

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/767Business Day, the South African daily business
newspaper, reports on GATA's African Gold
Summit.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

SHIFTY

(05/13/2001; 22:25:39 MDT - Msg ID: 53545)

Periodic Ponzi Update PPU

http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htm

Nasdaq 2,107.43 + Dow 10,821.31 = 12,928.74 divide by 2 = 6464.37 Ponzi

Down 107.01 from last week.

Thank you Sir RossL for the link.

GO GATA !

GO GOLD !

working-kirk

(05/13/2001; 23:00:48 MDT - Msg ID: 53546)

Out of Africa (message 53535)

auspec (05/13/01; 19:30:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 53535)

*The Chinese are buying more gold in Africa than is generally known.
*The Chinese are offering billions of dollars in loans
to appropriate Africans at very low interest rates -
as low as .5%.
*The Chinese are as "cocky" as this person has ever seen them and they are everywhere in Africa.
*The African/Bush Administration relationship is deteriorating. The recent African meeting with Colin Powell did not go well. My source tells me to look out for increasing friction in the near future."

Just finding this out makes me even more suspecious that the
Chinese would be selling their silver. Some on this forum
mentioned the Chinese were selling their silver to help
keep the cost down and I questioned this theory using common
sense that
1.) The Chinese were the last country to stop using silver for money

2.) While it made little sense to give away for them to
gave away their silver, it went beyond belief to expect
they would pay the frieght as well, especially when
there were a lot closer countries not only to pay a
preminum for whatever silver they had. )(India,
Russian and Turkey to name a few where silver would be prized.

Other pointed out The chinese want to use silver for chopsticks and for their own photography needs.

However, now I have heard the Chinese are secretly buying gold I can give a reason the Chinese are selling silver.

The Chinese are loudly proclaiming they are selling their silver as a means of disinformation. That would certainly
mean they are not interested in Gold. But just because someone is loudly yelling they are doing something, does not
mean they are doing it. It could be very well the opposite.
I think the Chinese are yelling they are selling silver to anyone stupid enough to listen (GSFM or whatever the initials are) but the sale isn't complete until you have the item in your hot little hands. And who is to say the chinese isn't selling their silver to themselves. A question few ask about the gold and silver shorts is if everybody is selling their precious metals then who is buying?

Anyway, I learn much from the other posters on this forum so
I would like to hear what you think of my theory?

The Chinese aren't selling silver, only saying they are in
order to buy gold and more silver secretly.

beesting

(05/13/2001; 23:15:32 MDT - Msg ID: 53547)

Happy Mothers Day to All the Mothers,Leigh,& some more from Ron Paul.

Journeyman # 53512, blush,blush, glad someone reads this students efforts but I am learning so much more from you and the rest of the combined brain power here, Thank You, Thank You!

Although Congressman Pauls book was written over 10 years ago, I find so many things in it relevent to our on going discussions here at the USAGOLD forum, it's almost unbelievable.Here is some more,(hope its not too long) by popular demand, from Congressman Pauls "Money Book",between pages 185 to 217 begin quotes:

Ten Myths About Paper Money:
1.Paper money is wealth.
Fact # 1 Paper money is not wealth, it steals wealth.

2."Easy" money causes low interest rates.
Fact # 2 "Easy" money causes hard times.

3. Paper money is elastic.
Fact # 3 The paper money bubble expands until it bursts.

4.Paper money gets its value from the economy.
Fact # 4 Paper money cannot derive its value from the economy, for the government does not own the economy.

5. Legal tender laws instill trust in paper money.
Fact # 5 Legal tender laws install fear in the people, not trust in the money.

6. The low cost of printing paper money is an economic advantage.
Fact # 6 The low cost of printing paper money guarantees the declining value of paper money.

7. Paper money can pay for the "good" things government does for people.
Fact # 7 Paper money is a tool for the political redistribution of property.

8. Paper money eliminates the business cycle.
Fact # 8 Paper money causes inflationary booms and deflationary depressions.

9. A managed paper money gives stable prices.
Fact # 9 The greatest price increases and highest interest rates in history have been caused by paper money.

10. Politicians can be trusted with a printing press.
Fact # 10 Government will use all the power it is given, including the power to print unlimited quantities of paper money.End quotes.

(beesting note, Congressman Paul gives about a one page reason for all his facts)

And this from pages 202 & 203(Is he talking about the Euro?) begin quotes:......has prompted a group of economists, many of whom embraced Monetarism, to promote psuedo-Gold standards. Through this they hope to achieve the benifits of Gold by a loose linkage to it without imposing the required dicipline. they want to eat their cake and have it too.
The group of supply siders who promote pseudo-Gold standards are led by economists such as Robert Mundell, Jude Wanniski, and Arther Laffer. These economists reject monetarism but stop short of a ginuine Gold standard. Their efforts are not entirely wasted, but their program is frought with so many errors that there is a danger that it could impede the efforts being made for proper currency reform.....etc. etc....The over riding danger , however,is that when, out of desperation, we once again resort to the use of Gold, a psuedo-Gold standard, one that is bound to fail, will be accepted. This could make Gold vulnerable to all the trite anti-Gold critisms. If Gold is falsely discredited, true reform could be delayed for decades. This only increases the risk of persistant and serious economic and political termoil for the world. The choice between the real Gold standard and the pseudo-Gold standard is just as important as the choice between paper and Gold...etc etc.

And This.....
Only the Gold standard, whose purpose is to define and maintain the ""INTEGRITY OF THE MONETARY UNIT,"" is capable of achieving a sound monetary system in which""THE PEOPLE"", not the bankers or the government , are in charge. Prices than are flexible in the short run, yet on the long run a Gold monetary system allows for price stabilization, if not gently falling prices.

....And this, date unknown(before 1991):

[Testimony of the Honorable Ron Paul before the subcommittee on mines and mining Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs United States House of Representitives]

Thank you very much Mr Chairman, for allowing me to appear before your subcommittee this morning to discuss the feasibilty of establishing a Gold standard.
As you know, I have introduced, and other members have cosponsored, H.R. 7874, which is a comprehensive bill to place the United States on a FULL GOLD COIN STANDARD within two years of date of passage.(beesting, anybody ever see anything about this in the news???)Ron Paul again:
I believe such a standard to be not only desirable and feasible, but absolutely necessary if we are to avoid the very real possibilty of hyperinflation in the near future, and economic collapse. But in Washington we have 5 myths about the Gold standard:

Myth # 1 There isn't enough Gold.(Long Explanation)

Myth # 2 A Gold standard would allow Russia & South Africa to hold us hostages.(Another long explanation,,,written before 1991)

Myth # 3 Gold causes depressions.(Long Explanation)

Myth # 4 Gold causes inflation.(Part of long explanation)
....For most of the 19th century we had an imperfect Gold coin standard. In the 67 years prior to the beginning of the Federal Reserve system in 1913 the consumer price index in this country increased by 10%, and in the 67 years subsequent to 1913 the C.P.I. increased by 625%. This groth has accelerated since 1971 when President Nixon cut our last link to Gold by closing the Gold window.
In 1833 the index of wholesale commodity prices in the U.S. was 75.3 In 1933, just prior to going off the Gold standard, the index of wholesale commodity prices in the U.S. was 76.2 A change in 100 years of ONE percent. The index of wholesale commodity prices in 1976 was 410.2. Today the index is 612.3(date unknown?) For 100 years on the Gold standard wholesale prices rose only 9/10 of 1% In the last 45 years of paper money they have gone up 536%....etc etc.

Myth # 5 Gold would be speculative.(Part of long explanation):
""Still quoting Ron Paul", I find such an arguement amazing, for it is precisely because it is a commodity and not subject to manipulation(Remember written before 1991) of a bureaucracy in Washington or London that is desirable. If one wishes to speak of undesirable speculative influences one only need to look at the speculation in the U.S. dollar.
A Gold standard would eliminate all speculation about the poltical motavations of the monetary authorities in governing the supply of money. The great virtue of the Gold standard is that it removes discretionary power over the money supply from any one agency, thus ending the most fertile source of speculation. A Gold standard puts the power of the monetary system into the hands of the people and takes it away from the politicians and bankers, thus removing a potential vehicle for establishing a tyranny....etc etc. And this...For over 60 years the American people have been exercising faith(in the current systm)and they have suffered the worst depression and the worst inflations in their history. Let us hear no more of faith in men, but bind government with the chains of an honest monetary system-the FULL Gold coin standard.
In the Coinage Act of 1792 the Founders provided the DEATH PENALTY for any government employee who debased the money.(Gold) If such a penalty were inforced today how many members of the Federal Open Market Committee would survive the month? End of Ron Paul Quotes.

Thanks for Reading....beesting.

Jason Happy

(05/13/2001; 23:45:57 MDT - Msg ID: 53548)

story idea: gold price suppression

Subject:
story idea: gold price suppression
Date:
Sun, 13 May 2001 22:19:08 -0600
From:
Jason group@spintheweb.com
To:
oreilly@foxnews.com, Comments@foxnews.com,
Foxnewsonline@foxnews.com,
GATAComm@aol.com, vronsky@gold-eagle.com,
westerman@gold-eagle.com,
president@whitehouse.gov,
vice.president@whitehouse.gov, johns@theunion.com

An open letter to Fox News & Mr. Bill O'Reilly;

Are you afraid to cover certain stories? Doesn't the Fox station have ties with the Bush Family? Doesn't the Bush family have ties with Barrick Gold (ABX), a gold mining company that is heavily short the gold market and might be hurt by substantially rising gold prices? Even if these things are so, would that be a reason to avoid reporting on
the developing gold derivative banking crisis?! Actually, it might be a strong reason to cover it now!

GATA, the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc., at http://www.gata.org/, has published numerous papers sent to congress about gold suppression, and is also involved in a lawsuit charging the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank, the BIS, and several large commercial banks with collusion to keep the price of gold low.

The longer gold is suppressed, the more dangerous the political game, particularly for those currently in power. Why is the major news press of the United States ignoring this story? Why?

I would think this should be covered by the news media now, and that we who support Mr. Bush, as I do, would want this to erupt now. If this scandal erupts now, it can be blamed on Clinton, where most of the blame should lie. The more time that passes, however, the more political and personal
blame will be assigned to George W. Bush.

It is a dangerous political game to allow fraud on this
scope and size to continue. The gold suppression scandal and banking crisis needs to be brought to light as soon as possible, and it deserves major news coverage.

Major Developing Items in the current gold scandal:

1. Many members of Congress have already received GATA's report, "The Gold Derivative Banking Crisis". http://www.gata.org/test.html
2. There is a federal lawsuit filed by Reg Howe against specific national and commercial banks such as Chase Manhattan Corp., Citigroup, Inc., Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Deutsche Bank AG who are short enormous amounts of gold. see
http://www.gata.org/lawsuit.html
3. The revealing of "gold swaps" by branches of the Federal Government, and the new label of certain U.S. gold being held as "custodial gold", which might now be owned by Germany?
4. GATA's recent trip to South Africa where several 100,000 South African black workers have been put out of work in the last year as gold mines close down in the current low price environment, which does not make sense in a free market world economy since less than 2500 tons are being mined each year and over 4000 tons are being consumed each
year.

This final reason is enough to embarrass black leaders such as the Rev. Jessie Jackson, which should interest Mr. Bill O'Reilly.

Certainly the most compelling reason to begin covering this topic is that viewers and readers who hear the message and take action by investing in gold now at the current suppressed price have the most to benefit, and will respect most the news agencies who brought this to their attention.

Other online resources for your various news reporting
staff to begin their research: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials.html

Sincerely,

Jason Hommel
group@spintheweb.com
12641 Anvil Road,
Grass Valley, CA
530 274 3450

cc GATAComm@aol.com,
cc vronsky@gold-eagle.com, westerman@gold-eagle.com
cc president@whitehouse.gov,
vice.president@whitehouse.gov

P.S. To Mr. Vronsky and GATA:

I believe gold suppression is a political problem that we must address in a political way. We need to get larger segments of the general population in the United States involved, or we need to get the U.S. press involved, or we need to express our collective outrage more loudly and openly.

May I suggest that people who read Vronsky's editorials or GATA's dispatches, which I hope will both send this letter out, also take action and start writing letters to news agencies. I have sent the above to: Foxnewsonline@foxnews.com, Comments@foxnews.com, oreilly@foxnews.com as well as my local newspaper, The Union in Grass Valley, CA, at johns@theunion.com.

This letter will also be copied to various online forums, and may be freely and widely distributed via email to friends and family members.

IronHead

(05/14/2001; 01:50:31 MDT - Msg ID: 53549)

Leigh - Mother's Day

Hello Lady Leigh - Always such a treat to find your words of compassion, amidst the banter of the boys.

Yes, I am with Mom during this day of honor. She is however, not willing to enter the foray, which probably is for the better, considering her view of our economic debacle would make Sir Farfel's treatises look like a choir boy recital. After growing up in the depression era, working for 40 plus years, maintaining a "saver vs. risk taker" attitude and trusting the red, white, and blue to due right by its citizens, has left her with conservative savings and social security reflecting the past years of no "official" inflation, and now interest rates on CD's in the toilet due to the toady Fed Heads manipulations of rates, to placate their masters.

How many other older retired moms and pops are feeling the brunt of the soft asset credit/debt creation? What is to become of their future in a hyperinflationary environment, on a fixed (at the *old* rate) income? Or a depressionary environment where the fixed paper (mal)investments have disappeared due to massive default? Hope some believe in the golden rule.

Well, before I go into one of my depression dynamic tirades, suffice to say Mom is doing well and now reading all the Ayn Rand books she can get her hands on. She just turned 80 and is still sharper than the chrony politicians she reviles against. Oops.... considering the intelligence of some politicians.

Hope you got the country farm and are enjoying the fruits of labor in a garden - seems there are alot of gardeners among the goldhearts around here; must be an affliction of self sufficiency?

Salutations,
IronHeadView Yesterday's Discussion.

Strad Master

(05/14/2001; 02:20:25 MDT - Msg ID: 53550)

Announcement

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Are again proud to announce the arrival of our latest model

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o Copyright: May 13, 2001 (Mother's Day) � 4:44 PM Pacific Daylight Time

Netking

(05/14/2001; 02:36:24 MDT - Msg ID: 53551)

Working-Kirk

working-kirk(53546)
They are not selling Ag, fact! Lets have proof from anyone that says otherwise, we'll get none. This has been an orchestrated littany of "disinformation" from those who have had the most to gain from it. The market forces are about to have their day though, we'll have the last laugh.
Go Gold, Go Silver, Go GATA.

Netking

(05/14/2001; 02:51:10 MDT - Msg ID: 53552)

R Powell (53487)

R Powell(53487)
Thanks for the silver links, and hope you survived your "honey-dos", ditto for me too, bless them.

Netking

(05/14/2001; 02:59:29 MDT - Msg ID: 53553)

Randy @ The Tower

Randy(53438)Where've ya been brother!
Do you have any more details on that PRC coin issue, sizes & content, prices in local currency, number minted & issued etc? They tell me that impossible you can do straight away however miracles can take a little longer.

Turnaround

(05/14/2001; 03:20:07 MDT - Msg ID: 53554)

nice people on Mondays

Hill Billy Mitchell (5/13/01; 12:58:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 53521)
Turnaround @ # 53507

And Sir,

"Sir, you say:

"I'll gladly pay you Tuesday in tiny little dollars for something real today."

"Not so! Americans are gladly paying Tuesday in tiny little dollars for hamburgers, clothing and oodles and oodles of consumables, but are buying very little in the way of hard assets. They are borrowing against what little equity they have in hard assets to continue the consumption binge. "

Just so- the 'equity' pulled out as FRN bytes is anticipated (on some level, by some people) to shrink to zero, so spend it now, try to hang onto the house and the job, and wait for the river to empty into the sea. Most may not look at it from this viewpoint, but rather the 'greater fool' theory- the perceived appreciation in FRN numbers. Here's a thought- maybe folks know (again at some unarticulated level of consciousness) the good times can't last forever, so enjoy it while you can, it's been a great ride.

"There is no savings (excluding tax sheltered paper investments) which would hardly qualify as hard assets. Household savings are nonexistent and have been for some time."

Yes, on average. But the ~50% of American households "invested" in the stock market this time around certainly thought of it as saving for retirement- deferring consumption in hopes of making a killing. (Now of course we are in the confusion stage that precedes panic. I really am amazed this has not occurred yet.)

"Maybe I should be more clear. Real tangible (durable) assets are assets which will last
longer than the loans against them as follows:

"Precious metals"

These were tanking until recently, and are obviously still not quite on John Q.'s Etch-a-Sketch version of an economic radar screen. He'll be around, by and by.

"Guns and ammo"

Ammo is a one-shot affair, granted with a long bunker life. Not quite the same caliber as the other items in this manifest. (Guns are an interesting case, the demand has apparently been falling, perhaps due to market saturation, unconstitutional infringements on ownership and media psychobabble. Is this to be considered a medical device or a means of production- an alchemical transmutator for turning lead into gold?)

"Unimproved real estate (not a good option at this time as mostly overpriced)"

Improved as well- even a Pleasantville McMansion can't go to zero like some FRNs I know. Oth, it is very interesting that much new commercial and residential construction may not outlast the mortgage.

"The following are not real tangible (durable) assets which will not hold value beyond the hopes of liquidation of debt against them -- consumables:

"New automobiles"

Loans on new cars have a half-life of maybe 4 years (?), the cars last maybe 15 years (?) half-life. I'm guessing as I haven't looked up actuarial tables for these machines. This is a durable good, the second largest purchase an average producer makes. Consider the tale (in "Big Float", I think it was) of the Beamer dealership in downtown Jakarta- cleaned out in a matter of days by people carrying wads of rupiah. The point was not to "consume" the car but rather to trade into something -anything- with a lower depreciation rate.

"Food"

Eh? Shame on them for eating?

"Entertainment"

A radio, Nintendo or TV set lasts about long enough to consider as a durable good, longer than a movie or baseball game anyway. My TV is 13 years old, I think it still works.

"Nothing all inclusive in the above, just trying to make a point."

So why evaluate the durability of a good in terms of the ratio of its useful life to the term of a loan against it? Because the lender does? Also, one can charge many consumables against credit cards at department stores, grocery stores, etc.

My point is different people have different rationales, strategies and circumstances. Some grasshoppers are eating their seed (and ours), others are doing other things. The harvest isn't all cut and dried.

"You have a nice class of peasants here in America."
--attributed to Boris Yeltsin

Netking

(05/14/2001; 04:03:54 MDT - Msg ID: 53555)

Chinese PM buying cont.

Comment from Dave Morgan's;

"The Chinese are quietly buying up the gold market. They are smart cookies and surely know what Frank Veneroso told
the summit -- and that is that the gold loans are 10,000 to 16,000 tonnes, not the 5,000 tonnes that the gold industry claims is the case. Frank explained the six ways he came up with the same conclusion. This means that gold is a national security issue for the United States. Next time, instead of a surveillance plane, the problem might be Taiwan and it might arise at a time when our banks are tottering. What if China tells the United States, "We want Taiwan or we are going to sell our billions of dollars of reserves and replace them with gold reserves" -- after quietly loading up on gold at cheap prices?"
-----------------------------------------------------------
Netking Question; Are these same smart cookies also multi-tasking and dumping Ag at the lowest inflation adjusted prices in over 100 years when the price & demand/supply dynamics may be about to have the same as a nuclear meltdown?, surely even a drunk in Central Park could answer that one friends. regards NK

Canuck

(05/14/2001; 05:00:11 MDT - Msg ID: 53556)

@ Chris Powell

Sorry; I did not mean 'quiet' as in non-vocal.

I await your report on the Chinese "buying more gold than was thought."

Goldfly

(05/14/2001; 06:26:17 MDT - Msg ID: 53557)

Stradmaster - Congratulations!!

Mother's Day was a good choice. How did you arrange that?

(05/14/2001; 07:28:47 MDT - Msg ID: 53558)

Goldfly

http://www.antiwar.com/
Hey Goldfly - how you been? Thanks for your comments but I'm not in the same league as Justin Raimondo. I do read all his articles along with the others at the site you mentioned. Thanks for pointing to the situation in Italy. I think it surely demonstrates the mindset of the European Union. I'm glad to see the Italian people telling the tyrants of Brussels where to stick it.

justamereBear

(05/14/2001; 07:49:21 MDT - Msg ID: 53559)

StradMaster

LOL and congratulations to you and Mrs. Strad. Envy you the birth of a new life. Only reason I would consider remarriage, More kids. My children are the most wonderful thing that eaver happened to me.

j'Bear

justamereBear

(05/14/2001; 07:52:34 MDT - Msg ID: 53560)

Oro

As I said I am woefully short of time at the moment, but would love to enter your debate.
Have you ever considered that the supply of gold is rather fixed, whereas population, and productivity are not?

j'Bear

(05/14/2001; 07:59:32 MDT - Msg ID: 53561)

turbo

Hey turbo - thanks! Your comments are most appreciated!

Yes, it would appear we have had all traditional arguments for sound money tossed in favor of some kind of argument best described as "we just can't help it". Any argument against gold and its free trade is an argument for tyranny, plain and simple. I'm glad we've had this little debate. Hopefully it has opened some eyes as to the real value of gold.

"The ongoing breakdown of the fiat system and the socialist
govts it supports should be recognized as a rare opportunity to disembowel centralized control and return power
to the individual. Kick�em while they're down."

Go, turbo, go!

Carl H

(05/14/2001; 07:59:41 MDT - Msg ID: 53562)

Netking: Chinese Silver

Do you (or anyone else) have any proof that the Chinese are NOT dumping silver?

Do you have any explanation for where the additional silver to meet demand is coming from?

Galearis

(05/14/2001; 08:46:52 MDT - Msg ID: 53563)

@Netking and silvercollector re silver

You said:

"Netking Question; Are these same smart cookies also multi-tasking and dumping Ag at the lowest inflation adjusted prices in over 100 years when the price & demand/supply dynamics may be about to have the same as a nuclear meltdown?, surely even a drunk in Central Park could answer that one friends. regards NK".
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Well, I managed to survive the Toronto of 2001 for a miraculous 4 days this time, and although it was not raining to add an additional factor of danger, I DID venture onto the 401 twice! (smile)

My apologies to sir silvercollector ( I so DO like your handle!) for not responding during this time and hello sir Netking.

Netking
The above question is always one almost constantly at the forefront of the mind, and to date (for years to date) fundamentals have made little difference to our precious, precious metals markets, yes? And yet we see them by necessity putting on the costumes of masquerade for affect - the lease rate signs that metal is being accumulated to imply sufficiency, the BOE auctioned gold to go to the delta hedgers to back the derivatives to depress the price.
We SHOULD see a major attack on both metals today.

We see the predictable signs, perhaps, as gold (and silver) lease rates are up in the face of a new auction, as they accumulate to sell in order to prepare the new stage for the next period of depressed prices after the auction. It would seem this supply does not stretch the same distance that it once did, yes?

Although these times they are a ending, isn't it amazing how long they have done this with success? It is also not a given, in spite of a lot of spin to the contrary, that the times they will be ending anytime soon either.

In my worst case scenario opinion they will continue to be successful at this manipulation until the EURO is physically launched - and beyond if they can do it. Guaranteed they will do this with both gold and silver until there is no metal left. If necessary! Both the USD camp and the EURO camp require this - if necessary - to protect the world financial system. Whatever gold is left in the vaults will be the fulcrum to the new value of the metal - as will the production of the surviving miners.

The shorts will be then perhaps be allowed to cash out with relatively(?) /deflated or worthless dollars and the worst case scenario (for silver especially) is that they will cap the price. Industrial demand will be through the roof, but the price will STILL be artificially low and there will be NO metal to be had. Of course this will take down more than a few rather necessary manufacturing interests, but thank goodness the financial system (banking) will only be mauled and not destroyed. Please note, that the tone of the last statement does not transfer past the keyboard.

In taking your statement above at face value, that they can do this with such impunity for so long implies a disaster. The real question is how they will get away with it? Is Goldman Sachs as a MAJOR silver short all THAT worried about its situation? Or is there an "understanding" between them and certain other interests that gave them the confidence to take this road in the first place. Goldman and others of this ilk have been traveling this same road to many destinations in many different financial environments and the two things that come through with clarity is their flexible ethics and their great talent for survival.

Although I HAVE been drunk (not very often -honest!), I have never been to Central Park (can it be as bad as Toronto during rush hour? [smile])As usual in such a corrupted market environment there are always more questions than answers. And fundamentally (sic) I can't answer this one either. None can.

Regards,

L

Mr Gresham

(05/14/2001; 09:01:42 MDT - Msg ID: 53564)

Sir Strad Master (5/14/01; 02:20:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 53550)

What a wonderful announcement! And Eva Gabriella is a name that the angelic hosts are repeating amongst themselves with approving nods even now.

You will favor us with announcements of any future on-line radio performances (perhaps in joyful celebration of her arrival) that we may tune in to, won't you? After all, yours is the only actual voice amongst all of our comrades here that I have been allowed to hear. And I would like to again.

justamereBear

(05/14/2001; 09:05:43 MDT - Msg ID: 53565)

SteveH Black Blade Journeyman Auspec/Working Kirk @ All

Several posters logic made me think that they might also have an interest in the book, "The Alpha Strategy" By John Pugsley. It is a bit dated (early 80's) and written to cater to the audience that existed at that time, ie the bogeyman of the day was inflation. However his arguements that the system is a ripoff are equally valid today.

Black Blade
53502 Right on!!!
53526 How many feet, average or about, are required to produce a megawatt hour of electricity? You say 22,000 new megawatts coming on stream. How much gas does this require? Is there any available slack in pipeline transmission? My suspicion is not. How many cu feet does a large tanker carry? My suspicion is that these 22,000 megawatts need a lot more transmission capacity than people really think. If one could put it in real numbers, eg. 500 new tankers will be required to supply the new electricity generation, the fact would become more real. That of course assumes that the producers can produce indefinitely, and since we have a finite supply of hydrocarbons, and are finding less each passing day, there is credance to the idea that there may not be much more to discover.

Journeyman 53512
One element that few seem to touch on is that the banks particularly (and the insurance companies) make wonderful concentrators of money. Many small deposits concentrated for a large loan to, for example, build a large factory, and thus create jobs. etc. etc.
Still really enjoying your posts.

Steve H.
53510 Interesting arguement.
53539 The Taiwanese also, have been for many years, buying gold with surplus US$ So much so that in the mid 90's the US government was officially complaining. These holdings are apparently not held as central bank reserves, but in a wholly owned subsidiary, where it does not show up on the books. From what I have been able to glean, the numbers are VERY large.

Auspec/Working Kirk
Given what I understand to be a love of precious metals by the Chinese, I would think that the buying and selling of gold and silver in Africa would more likely have the motive of influence than anything else. They might be using it as a tool to wrest influence or control away from other parts of the world (including US) Bring Africa into their sphere of influence by using PM as a sort of bribe????

Thats all folks, Back to the grindstone

j'Bear

justamereBear

(05/14/2001; 09:13:31 MDT - Msg ID: 53566)

Goldfly 53510

I lied in my last. Here I am again.

Have you ever considered that Mothers day is 9 months after fathers day? Simple arithmatic. :>))

j'Bear

(05/14/2001; 09:42:32 MDT - Msg ID: 53567)

Ravi Batra & Credit

http://www.miningstocks.com/archive/ravibatra.pdfBegin quote

"� we don't have a free enterprise economy. It is touted as a free enterprise economy but we really don't have that. In fact, what we have are regional monopolies or a monopolized economy.
Some people call it "Crony Capitalism." The main feature of a monopolized economy is that the fruit of rising productivity goes to owners of capital, not to the employees. So there occurs a rising gap between productivity and wages. Wages are the main source of demand and productivity is the main source of supply so with the rising gap between wages and productivity there is a potential for a gap between demand and supply. And that has been occurring in the U.S. for many years now. So
the question is how have we stayed afloat for so long with supply rising faster than demand? The answer is demand has remained artificially high through the creation of debt, either from government, consumers, corporations and foreigners. All this debt has combined to lift up demand to
the level of supply. But debt created prosperity cannot last forever. So we have gotten into this mess by: First, allowing wages to lag behind productivity and secondly by artificially bolstering demand by creating a tremendous amount of debt". �

End quote

It follows that in a classical gold standard without fractional reserve banking, wages have to increase to equate demand to supply.

Carl H

(05/14/2001; 09:49:07 MDT - Msg ID: 53568)

South Africa Soverign Risk

Does anyone have any thoughts on how great the risk of nationalization of the South African gold mines is? I'm particularly concerned if there is a backlash against the US/UK for manipulating the gold price.

Also a related question -- would I fair any better in such a situation if I were holding actual South African stock rather than depository receipts?

FredBear

(05/14/2001; 10:34:27 MDT - Msg ID: 53569)

Carl H (5/14/01; 09:49:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 53568)

If you are worried about SA's sovereignty, why not hold Kruggerands instead of paper?

They're much prettier.

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/14/2001; 10:34:35 MDT - Msg ID: 53570)

Turnaround @ # 53554

Sir,

I think you and ORO are looking at one side and I am looking at the other side of the same coin.

Sometimes we on this forum, due to time constraints, fire from the hip rather than taking some time to zero in on our target. I fear that that is exactly what I have done by offering my remarks concerning ORO's statement about U.S. households hedging against the dollar. You have come to his defense. I have been unfair to both of you. Please allow me some time. In a day or two I will prepare a lengthy response as to what I am really trying to say. I doubt that any of us disagree on this issue. The big problem is my lack of patience in taking the time to properly cover my side of the coin.

On another subject: have you noticed that POG has held up rather well in the face of this strong advance in the USD Index, since the surprise rate cut by AG in mid-April. Maybe I am reading this wrong but it sure seems like a strong signal for the direction of POG. Na, when the dollar begins to tank POG will probably tank with it. The simple fact that nothing seems to make sense in market relationships should give us heart. Trying to defy the laws of gravity does not bode well for those who try it. Let me offer my imprecatory prayer now: -- "How long O Lord?"

Very respectfully,

HBM

nummus aureus

(05/14/2001; 11:18:56 MDT - Msg ID: 53571)

Congratulations Mr. & Mrs. Strad Master!

(I have an extra Marshall Power Brake I can lend you.)
Now I see why you have not been posting as regularly as you once did (:-0} fiddling around home!
It's probably too soon to register her for a screen name and password here on USAGold, but let us know when she can hold a gold eagle by herself. My experience is girls are faster than boys in this regard, and much more content with a gold coin in both hands, (and seldom out grow it.)

Carl H

(05/14/2001; 11:19:21 MDT - Msg ID: 53572)

Fredbear Re Kugarrands

I do hold physical gold and silver. Both paper and physical have advantages and disadvantages:

Physical advantages:
-Very low risk of loss of value.

Physical disdvantages:
-More cumbersome to deal with (shipping is a pain, especially with silver)
-Risk of theft (by government or others)

Paper Advantages:
-Leverage (e.g. Durban probably has 20 to 1 leverage on gold)
-Easy to deal with.

Paper disadvantages:
-In the case of South Africa, soverign risk.
-Coerision of corporate management by the cabal.

turbohawg

(05/14/2001; 11:48:13 MDT - Msg ID: 53573)

Ron Paul Watch

Beesting and others, it's unconfirmed as yet, but word is there's a good possibility that Congressman Paul will be one of the guests tonight on Hannity & Colmes on Fox News. The topic: U.N. funding.

Stay tuned.

hAug

Sierra Madre

(05/14/2001; 11:56:21 MDT - Msg ID: 53574)

Hill Billy Mitchell...about hasty writing

I picked up a set of "The Rambler", 11th edition about 1789, in Boston while on a visit. These books are crammed with Dr. Samuel Johnson's wisdom. He was the pre-eminent man of letters in London's 18th Century and was not only erudite, but wise: not the same thing! A thoroughly good man. (Didn't like Americans; he had his reasons; note, that I don't say he was right in that opinion)
Well, I find in one of his numbers of "The Rambler", a weekly publication he put out for some years, that he says many writers commmit the mistake of thinking that what they write in haste, will be clearly understood by readers. He who writes in haste, will often not be aware that his readers cannot guess what he is really thinking, since they only have his words to go by. So he warns against writing in haste. You have mentioned the same problem.

I take the opportunity of mentioning that those of us who are hoarding gold, are doing something that has not been the rule through history. We are taking advantage of a unique, once in an age - not once in a lifetime - opportunity of accumulating a stock of precious gold at ridiculously low prices. Hoarding gold was a relatively rare activity throughout history. Gold was held, by economically active people, as an inventory for liquidation of obligations and as a stock for investment in current economic activity. Thus, this hoarding which we are engaged in, is something completely out of the ordinary, something not generally present in "normal" times. This is why we are subject to opprobium by the generality of mankind, who do not understand the nature of our times. We are those who see more clearly, and we are necessarily few.

I think we should reflect that not only are we hoarding gold, our "positive" action, but we should also understand what we are NOT doing. What we are not doing, is "investing" as the world knows it today. We are really and actually on strike, in the Randian sense.

We are on strike, refusing to act in the "normal" manner, because we are unsatisfied with the conditions under which we are asked to perform the act of investing. We are the object of ridicule (which masks the fear felt by those who do not want to understand our position) because our actions do not fit the general pattern. Thus we are denigrated as "goldbugs".

When I am offered a GOLD BOND, issued by a serious company or a serious government, in a legal framework which will offer me guarantees, I may abandon part of my strike attitude. I may consider investing, because the conditions satisfy me. Not before that, will I part with any gold.

I think that at present, "normal investors" will in due course, abandon equities (not totally of course; some equities will remain interesting for the general market, even in the event of a panic) and head for US Treasury obligations. But, the enormous, gigantic debt load in the US and the world generally, will force a corresponding inflation of the money supply, in order to provide liquidity for that debt: make it payable, of course, but in ever smaller dollars or euros or what-have-you.

Those "normal investors", US persons and foreigners, who thought they were secure in US Treasuries, for instance, will find that they have only one alternative to "guaranteed confiscation": precious metals. Then, the current will shift in our favor, and it will turn out we are the wise men.

This is a certainty, confirmed by a fortune cookie message I got at a Chinese restaurant last week, which reads: "You will soon be sitting on top of the world". This is without a doubt, a message from on high. As good as any other prediction, anyway.

Sierra

Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD

(05/14/2001; 12:02:38 MDT - Msg ID: 53575)

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beesting

(05/14/2001; 12:09:43 MDT - Msg ID: 53576)

Reply to Carl H #53568.

Hi Carl,part of your message:
<actual South African stock rather than depository receipts?>>

Carl, years ago I inquired about this same thing, here is some of the info I uncovered.
1. You have to hire a broker in South Africa to buy or sell stock for you.
2. If you take delivery of your stock certificate, if you are not located in South Africa, it may be hard to sell.
3. South Africa will not send(Paper) Rands out of the country, you have to have someone convert your Rands into your local currency, in South Africa, if you recieve dividends or when you decide to sell your stock.***
4. Tax laws may be very different there.

***NOTE: In the not to distant future Electronic-Gold accounts may make it much easier to convert currencies and/or Gold without going thru the current banking system, and with lower fees.If at some point your South African Broker has access to Electronic-Gold services and you have access to Electronic-Gold services, your prayers may be answered. See Sir Journeymans many posts concerning the new age of Electronic-Gold,,,,Banking?

IMHO, for the first time in my memory, physical Gold ownership may outpace paper Gold on rate of return, in the not to distant future,,,not investment advice.
Hope This Helps....beesting.

beesting

(05/14/2001; 12:16:24 MDT - Msg ID: 53577)

Thanks Sir Turbo, good to see you back.

I live in a kind of remote area and T.V. reception is terrible, so I don't watch T.V. at all. Tell us here if Congressman Paul talks about Gold or related stuff.
T.I.A......beesting.

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/14/2001; 12:21:37 MDT - Msg ID: 53578)

Fed lending long term as though a 50 basis point rate cut were already in the can.

The Fed continued it's currency-pumping operations today as it added to banking reserves...the prerequisite to commercial lending which further expands the money supply on a system-wide basis.

With the FOMC meeting this week, it is instructive to see what the System Account Manager is doing at the eleventh hour.

While the fed funds market was trading today at a shade under the current FOMC target rate of 4.5 percent, the Fed added plenty more reserves to the banking system through several operations.

To begin, there was $2 billion in reserves added through 28-day repurchase agreements...and notably, the collateral was accepted at a stop out rate at very near 4.0 percent.

Next, the Fed added another $5.3 billion to banking system reserves via 3-day Rp's.

And finally, there was the bond-supportive action of the Fed's outright purchase of Treasury securities, effectively adding $730 million in permanent reserves.

Don't delay. Buy gold today!

Peter Asher

(05/14/2001; 13:02:47 MDT - Msg ID: 53579)

Mothers Day Births on Both Gold Forums

Could this be an Omen
(Marge) May 13, 12:29Gold-Eagle

Little fingers curl up tight to make a tiny fist,
As fairy lips purse out as if to make a gentle kiss. . .

Eyes, wide as a kitten's, and little button nose,
You look like someone's angel--down to your pudgy toes.

Although you are so wrinkled and your face is still so
pale,
And the only song you seem to know sounds like a
shrilling wail,
When you are here before me, finally, I feel complete.
I've waited so long, sweet GOLDEN child. . . at last, we
finally meet.

Strad: Congrats on (#4?) and well done on the creative post!

Netking

(05/14/2001; 13:14:10 MDT - Msg ID: 53580)

PRC - Silver exchange formed. Gold to follow

http://english.china.com/cdc/en/news/0,1073,13833-102008,00.htmlThe link an interesting read, confirms our recent GATA story.

Galearis/Carl H - Galearis Thanks for your comment, good points. Carl I believe it's the job of those who "peddle the story" to the market to provide the proof of this. However Ag bulls are relaxed(I am a physical buyer), yearly production over consumation deficit is unchanged, inventories are...has anybody seen where they have gone! So where does it come from?...leasing my friend...leasing. The more this happens, the more "bang for our buck" will we get when "July 4th" comes...enjoy!

Cavan Man

(05/14/2001; 14:10:55 MDT - Msg ID: 53581)

#1 Reason To Buy Gold

#1) A free trading gold market in China in thirty days or should quickly put great strain on available, above ground supplies. There are a lot of people over there and, gold ownership is a part of their culture.

Simply Me

(05/14/2001; 14:12:56 MDT - Msg ID: 53582)

Interview with Prince Al Waleed on CNBC tonight at 6pm Eastern

Heard this morning that a pre-taped interview with Prince Al Waleed will be presented on CNBC tonight at 6pm Eastern. The Prince rarely gives interviews, so I thought the information would be of interest to many folks on this forum.

STRADMASTER: Congratulations on the arrival of Eva Gabriella! What a lovely name! I hope that you will give us little updates on her growth and accomplishments in your future posts. Peace and harmony to your newly enlarged family!

simply

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/14/2001; 14:19:05 MDT - Msg ID: 53583)

Asian musings.... points to lessening support for dollar as center of the monetary universe.

http://hk-imail.singtao.com/inews/public/article_v.cfm?articleid=22162∫catid=9(Variation on Rubber Tree Plant song)
"Oops! there goes another legacy prop!"

Reporting this is not to be construed as my support or rejection of such a single Asian currency, but is to keep you informed on the evolving monetary dynamics which can adversely affect your dollar-denominated accounts. As such, you need to consider these things for what they are or may become, and their implications to the future role of the dollar on the world stage.

As this article briefly explores the growing Asian call for a single currency, it begins with this comment:

-------HONG KONG Monetary Authority chief executive Joseph Yam Chi-kwong yesterday called for a common regional monetary unit to stabilise the exchange rates of Asian currencies.-------

Now, this must be sloppy reporting, because surely Mr. Yam is fully aware that you can't simply call for the former as a means to achieve the latter. It would be somewhat like a weatherman calling for regional dampened soil because rain is much needed.

Speaking practically, the stabilization of the Asian currencies among themselves would have to be acheived prior to the implementation of a regional monetary unit.

Would the participating nations all be agreeable to mutual governmental fiscal responsibility and common international trade policies that must come hand in hand with a shared monetary policy? If they say yes, then what is the additional need for currency unification? At that point, the stabilization issue is essentially solved and it's simple math to retain the various currencies.

On the other hand, the need for an actual currency unification in Europe (rather than simply stopping short with the stabilization policies/treaties) can largely be seen as the single necessary element (a large enough currency block) to break the dollar hegemony. Once that is accomplished by one group or another, any other specific currency unions in other regions are not so important as simply establishing the policy foundation allowing market discipline and pricing. Each nation may chart its own fiscal course and be aptly rewarded or punished. And with free market gold as primary reserves, no nation would have need to pin its future upon the economic well-being of another nation and the quality of that nation's paper. The same holds true for individuals, too.

You need gold now more than ever.

Leigh

(05/14/2001; 15:22:04 MDT - Msg ID: 53584)

More on Ron Paul

http://www.thelibertycommittee.org/repeal16petition.htmCopy of an e-mail I received:

Dear liberty activist,

Congressman Ron Paul, the founder and honorary chairman of The Liberty Committee, will be a guest on "Hannity & Colmes" tonight. The subject will be Dr. Paul's effort to repeal the 16th Amendment. The program will begin at 9:00 p.m. ET on the Fox News network.

Millions of us protest the federal income tax either as individuals or through one of the dozens of liberty-seeking organizations established to explain one or another of the reasons why the illegitimate tax monster must be slain. Unfortunately, the bureaucrats and entrenched institutions that feed off the federal income-tax scheme have been able to ignore our complaints, because we have not been able to overwhelm them with our demands. They've been able to ignore us because, even though we number in the millions, we have never spoken as one, with one voice in one place and with one objective.

We now have that opportunity with H.J.Res. 45 -- The Liberty Amendment which, if we do our jobs, will repeal the 16th Amendment.

It is vitally important that you join with us to petition the leaders of the U.S. House to lead their members to pass H.J.Res. 45. Please add your name to the "Repeal 16 Petition" by going to http://www.thelibertycommittee.org/repeal16petition.htm

But if that is all you do, we will fail. You must turn to family, to friends, to your organizations and persuade those who will listen to ignore any petty differences and unite with you behind this single effort. By working together to pass H.J.Res. 45 we will have the strength to repeal the 16th Amendment.

H.J.Res. 45 -- The Liberty Amendment is not an academic exercise. It is not a political statement or an abstract ideal. It is real legislation before the U.S. House of Representatives today. It can become law if every liberty-minded American comes together. Add your name to the "Repeal 16 Petition" by going to http://www.thelibertycommittee.org/repeal16petition.htm

Please tell your family and friends about the program tonight and ask them to add their names to the "Repeal 16 Petition."

Kent Snyder
The Liberty Committee

turbohawg

(05/14/2001; 15:33:32 MDT - Msg ID: 53585)

Ron Paul Watch confirmation

Tonight at 8:00 CST on Fox News' Hannity & Colmes.

Topic is not on U.N. funding as last posted. Even better. It's on Congressman Paul's effort to repeal the 16th Amendment (income tax). This should be good.

Beesting, it's only in very rare instances such as this that TV is ever worth watching. Maybe a transcript will be made available after the show.

hAug

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/14/2001; 15:35:26 MDT - Msg ID: 53586)

Moot point

Due to the fact that the income tax is unconstitutional the following point is moot but I shall make it anyway:

"Taxing the income of citizens who are too young to vote is "taxation without representation", is it not?

HBM

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/14/2001; 15:39:27 MDT - Msg ID: 53587)

Sir Ron Paul

Personally I fear that Ron Paul's life is in grave danger. Those who are dispossed to pray might consider adding him and his family to your prayer list.

HBM

turbohawg

(05/14/2001; 15:40:56 MDT - Msg ID: 53588)

Leigh

Thanks for posting the Liberty Committee e-mail. I was unaware they'd sent that out ... guess I should check e-mail.

hAug

R Powell

(05/14/2001; 15:50:31 MDT - Msg ID: 53589)

2000 Results In 11th Consecutive Annual Silver Shortage

http://www.thebullandbear.com/resource/index1b.html I read my April-May issue of The Bull and Bear today while waiting for my gray gold (concrete) to set so I could finish it. Found this article by Patrick Heller very interesting and also found it online. The newspaper is bimonthly and always worth reading, especially since it comes in the mail as a freebee!
Rich

R Powell

(05/14/2001; 15:58:31 MDT - Msg ID: 53590)

As reported by Simply Me

earlier, Prince Al Waleed, 5th richest man in the world, will be interviewed on CNBC- right now! Also heard that Rupert Murdock would be on tonight between 6-6:30.
Mayhaps the prince will mention a fondness for yellow, shiny metal. Could happen?
Rich

R Powell

(05/14/2001; 16:02:51 MDT - Msg ID: 53591)

Some Very Bullish News On Gold

http://www.thebullandbear.com/resource/index1c.html Same newspaper, this article is by James Turk of the Freemarket Gold and Money Report.
Rich

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/14/2001; 16:17:48 MDT - Msg ID: 53592)

See Spot. See Spot go!

http://www.usagold.com/spot!.jpgSadly for me (a blessing for you), a host of website support duties keep my forum participation to a minimum. However, as time allows I do my best to catch up on what was missed, and try to answer inquiries as time allows.

I see that MK, Gandalf, and Goldfly had some unfinished business over the weekend, and that MK posted that perhaps I might be able to straighten the matter out.

Here is the link, my most worthy fellows.

Run, Spot, run.

auspec

(05/14/2001; 16:22:38 MDT - Msg ID: 53593)

Silver Guys and China

Not Out of ChinaIn regards to China and the possibility that they are dumping silver, let me put up a recent quote from James Cook:

"Since I've known Ted Butler he has shot holes in dozens of contemporary theories that claim there are big hoards of silver available around the world. A few weeks ago he was proven right when he said Delaware storage facilities did not contain the hundreds of millions of ounces that were rumored. It turned out to be six-million ounces, or about two days worth of industrial demand. Recently a national wire service claimed that China was a big seller of silver. Mr. Butler pointed out that annual net exports from China amounted to 3 million ounces, a meager one day's supply for industry. The man knows his silver." END

Comments: Sorry, but no link available, only manual typing. There is no questioning the ongoing supply/demand deficit, nor the massive short position. China is easy to blame, probably because they sleep while we are awake {just kidding}. Seriously, what would you do to protect your shorts if you were foolish enough to be caught in this position? A little disinformation possibly? It's similar to blaming the gold suppression on the Australians as so few actually have knowledge of what transpires in these countries. I'm with Butler until proven otherwise as it makes little sense for the Chinese to unload silver, at least not substantial amounts over extended periods of time. Like you have stated... stupid they're NOT! Silver moving from East to West? NAW!
More later, but wanted to get this Butler info up.
au{&ag}spec

R Powell

(05/14/2001; 16:23:50 MDT - Msg ID: 53594)

Hat trick day!!

Bridge news reports that POG closed up $0.50 on the June contract and Kitco shows both the lease rates and the XAU index up for the day so we have a 3 fer 3 day. This on the day before the BOE aution of 20 tons might be a good omen. Perhaps the bullion bank which loaned to Centaur will be looking to buy tomorrow. If they buy all that's offered twice and half of the third auction's offering, they'll have 50 tons to replace what was lost (or hung up in bankruptcy court).
Go GATA and Silver too
Rich

Leland

(05/14/2001; 16:31:46 MDT - Msg ID: 53595)

Hi! Netking and JMB

Glad that you're keeping in touch!

R Powell

(05/14/2001; 17:00:58 MDT - Msg ID: 53596)

auspec 53593

I think you, Mr. cook and Mr. Butler are right in that China is not the source of huge amounts of silver. This is also supported by GATA's report that the Chinese were attentive listeners in Durban. There are reports that the Chinese are not selling but buying. I believe this buying report came from a Yahoo GATA report from the S.A. conference. Murdock and the Prince coming on CNBC shortly (according to them) but I've heard that promise for an hour already and what I'm hearing is unmistakedly- Larry Kudlow!
Rich

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/14/2001; 17:11:22 MDT - Msg ID: 53597)

China's commemorative coin issue for Netking

More info? Sorry, Netking. You have been given all that I have on that. Anything further, such as drawing upon details from other recent-month issues of commemorative gold and silver coins in China would be meaningless and unfounded speculation on my part regarding the details of the coins released tomorrow. (Psssst..... Even if it WERE very likely that this was part of an ongoing program this year to issue 19 different designs in gold and 17 designs in silver featuring Chinese cultural icons, in which half-ounce gold coins are denominated as 200 yuan (and have had issues, for example, of 8,800) and silver is marked as 10 yuan per ounce (having had, for example, issues of 30,000 each).)

JMB

(05/14/2001; 17:28:50 MDT - Msg ID: 53598)

LELAND you old possum

Your main tech man at G-E seems to be the famous Don L, who has been on a major roll. You gotta like this guys record of late.

Tomorrow is a big day for "gold advocates" so I'm wondering if you would happen to know at what point Don L will throw in the towel on his latest bearish prediction? Don L and I have something in common. We both hope he's wrong.

PS: If he's right, please get me a cube, tia.

auspec

(05/14/2001; 18:40:32 MDT - Msg ID: 53599)

Silver

Galearis/Netking/jBear/working-kirk&AL:LGalearis-- Excellent post #53563. Snippet:
"We see the predictable signs, perhaps, as gold (and silver) lease rates are up in the face of a new auction, as they accumulate to sell in order to prepare the new stage for the next period of depressed prices after the auction. It would seem this supply does not stretch the same distance that it once did, yes?"

"Although these times they are a ending, isn't it amazing how long they have done this with success? It is also not a given, in spite of a lot of spin to the contrary, that the times they will be ending anytime soon either."

"In my worst case scenario opinion they will continue to be successful at this manipulation until the EURO is physically launched - and beyond if they can do it. Guaranteed they will do this with both gold and silver until there is no metal left. If necessary! Both the USD camp and the EURO camp require this - if necessary - to protect the world financial system. Whatever gold is left in the vaults will be the fulcrum to the new value of the metal - as will the production of the surviving miners." END

Comments: The Euro seems to be a bit of a coming catharsis for both silver and gold, lots of irons in the fire ready to be applied in near future. As per 'guaranteed they will do this with both gold and silver until there is no metal left'; I can only go with you half way on this one. The silver will go down to the last bar of the last stack just like the s{l}ick one went to the 'last minute of the last day'. Count on it. Not so fast with the gold however, as I have a hard time seeing all empty vaults. They will cut their losses in gold at some point if for no other reason than the 'smart money' CBs picking up their scraps. Russia and China for example. Gold is the ultimate form of wealth and its best not to commit ongoing fraud {fiat} without it.
Yes, who will own/control the surviving miners? Or rather those not already owned/controlled. We must keep our eyes on PRIVATE parties that end up with formerly Public forms of gold, as in CBs. If US publicly owned gold is compromised/transferred we must see where it ends up. The US public could largely care less about some former so called 'national treasure' and it is ripe for pickin. Anyway, back to silver. Not much 'known' above-ground silver remains and it is quite obvious it will be stretched to the max. I bot and sold silver nearly 30{!} years ago for the same dollar price as currently available. 50 years of stockpiles are nearly gone and I can invision NO scenario where this will not play out in a silver bull. A worldwide slowdown won't stop the bull as any lower POS will simply amplify and delay the inevitable. Supply will take the same hit as demand. Any war will hit silver in a big way as it is strategic. Does anyone think we've arrived at heaven on Earth? Actually there is a case for continued silver suppression and that is the Black Silver 'possibility'; are there hoards of silver available unknown to all our experts? It's time for a game of poker and calling that bluff as they will have to 'show us the silver'! Time to put up or pay up. What owner in his right mind would continue to part with a precious/strategic metal at shorted historic lows? Thanks in advance if you choose to do so! So what if a year or two of silver can be scavanged when we are physical owners? Pay me now or pay me much more later!

Netking-- you are right in regards to who 'peddles the story' of silver. Where does the rumor of China silver sales originate? Most likely out of the desperate camp of silver shorts as they have the most to lose with silver trading on its fundamentals. "The more this happens, the more 'bang for our buck' will we get when 'July 4th comes'". YESSSSS! Enjoy, accumulate, and plan to help Fuji out at $20, $40, and beyond. Some for the G-kids also. Time is whose friend??

justamereBear--Per your post # 53565: "Given what I understand to be a love of precious metals by the Chinese, I would think that the buying and selling of gold and silver in Africa would more likely have the motive of 'influence' than anything else. They might be using it as a tool to wrest influence or control away from other parts of the world {including US}, bring Africa into their sphere of influence by using PM as a sort of bribe???" END

Comment: This is a win-win for the Chinese. They get access to their PMs as well as your 'influence' with South Africa and other African countries. South Africa has long been and remains a strategic country because of enormous mineral wealth. ask the Brits. Is it up for grabs or at least 'adoption'? They assuredly could use a helping hand. Their gold resources are diminishing as they must go deeper and deeper to bring up same. Is this the real reason for their production decline, or is it simply POG? How about BOTH. South Africa is a true wild-card and GATA was very savvy to strike there!

working-kirk--Per your post#53535: "The Chinese aren't selling silver, only saying they are in order to buy gold and more silver secretly."

Comment-- I still don't know from where the China silver sales claims originate. Most likely western, however. ALL the accumulators, including Chinese are quite happy as to this chance for satiation, whatever the reason.

Who said it..... "A fool and his silver are soon parted"? Silver is loaded for a rocket shot and they keep pouring in more fuel every time the flight is delayed. Where has all the silver gone.....long time passing???? Thanks to fellow silver passengers!
auspec
auspec

Gandalf the White

(05/14/2001; 18:56:12 MDT - Msg ID: 53600)

Randy (@ The Tower) (05/14/01; 16:17:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 53592)

http://www.usagold.com/spot!.jpgRandy (@ The Tower) (05/14/01; 16:17:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 53592)
See Spot. See Spot go!
++++++++++++++
The Hobbits thank you, Randy of the Tower !
Please note that SPOT has the YELLOW in the correct grasp!!
<;-)
PS: The Wiz is not Paul Morse of the AP !

auspec

(05/14/2001; 19:02:37 MDT - Msg ID: 53601)

It's Quittin Time

From the CafeA bombshell from Bob Chapman that fits in perfectly with the information you have been getting from Midas the past 4 weeks or so; Bob, who is a big GATA supporter and Editor of the International Forecaster, sent us the following even before he published it in his own newsletter.

May 14, 2001

"Our intelligence sources have informed us that Alan Greenspan has given the bullion banks until the end of May to clear up their hedging and outstanding gold derivative positions. Evidentially this process has been going on for some time. Furthermore, Tony Blair will try to make available, at the upcoming British gold auction, additional gold which will go to banks designated by Greenspan. We were also told that AngloGold will sell forward a designated amount of gold to banks also specified by Alan Greenspan. Our source for this intelligence has been very accurate in the past. They also said they thought that gold would break out over $275.00 an ounce by Friday

Farfel

(05/14/2001; 19:05:40 MDT - Msg ID: 53602)

@Mr. & Mrs. Stradmaster

Congratulations on your special Mother's Day surprise. Looks like you have enough kids to form another string quartet.

Let's hope that your selection of the name "Eva" signifies the "Eve" of a gold bull market.

Mr. & Mrs. Farfel

Farfel

(05/14/2001; 19:06:14 MDT - Msg ID: 53603)

@Mr. & Mrs. Stradmaster

USAGOLD

(05/14/2001; 19:32:55 MDT - Msg ID: 53604)

Congrats to the Stradmasters. . . .

My best to Mrs. Strad and the new baby. . . . . So are we going for the quintet?

R Powell

(05/14/2001; 19:36:06 MDT - Msg ID: 53605)

Congrats

Mr.+Mrs. Stradmaster What Farfel just said-- Ditto from the Powells!!

auspec

(05/14/2001; 19:37:11 MDT - Msg ID: 53606)

Comment On AG & Post #53601

Posting Frenzy -SorryMay 14, 2001

"Our intelligence sources have informed us that Alan Greenspan has given the bullion banks until the end of May to clear up their hedging and outstanding gold derivative positions. Evidentially this process has been going on for some time. Furthermore, Tony Blair will try to make available, at the upcoming British gold auction, additional gold which will go to banks designated by Greenspan. We were also told that AngloGold will sell forward a designated amount of gold to banks also specified by Alan Greenspan. Our source for this intelligence has been very accurate in the past. They also said they thought that gold would break out over $275.00 an ounce by Friday."END

Comments: I am really upset that AG didn't include me in his 'loop' of gold stock buyers over the last month or so. Here's the reason gold stocks fly before physical. Just gotta get a bit better connected I guess. Now how do you figure he was ever able to convince the independent mining entity, AngloGold, to go along with such a scheme? He wouldn't approach the likes of Barrick, dare he? Let's see, we have a{nother} major derivative blowup here, what consortium can we put together to obfuscate this problem? You can handle 85 tons, you say? Certainly, they won't deny that gold is involved in this one, will they? Where has AG drawn the line in the tailings this time? Who goes first, gold or silver???
a

(05/14/2001; 19:51:34 MDT - Msg ID: 53607)

Italy

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/europe/newsid_1327000/1327651.stm
From the article;

"The centre-right coalition led by
media tycoon Silvio Berlusconi has
gained enough votes to form a
government, with nearly all the
Italian general election results now
in."

megatron

(05/14/2001; 19:57:44 MDT - Msg ID: 53608)

Chinese silver sales

I'm going to bet that the biggest reason the Chinese are always 'selling' is that it can never be actually verified.
What better of a cover? What real analyst could ever fly there and get to the bottom of it? NO ONE and they know it!

(05/14/2001; 20:05:55 MDT - Msg ID: 53609)

Strad

Congrats!

RossL

(05/14/2001; 20:09:32 MDT - Msg ID: 53610)

auspec #53606

This is quite a bombshell if it's for real:

"Our intelligence sources have informed us that Alan Greenspan has given the bullion banks until the end of May to clear up their hedging and outstanding gold derivative positions."

If it is true then we should see some spirited bidding for that 20 tonnes up for sale at the BOE auction. Yes?

Black Blade

(05/14/2001; 20:34:53 MDT - Msg ID: 53611)

RE: justamereBear (5/14/01; 09:05:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 53565)

Those are rather difficult questions to answer as presented. Much depends on how efficiently the natural gas is used to generate energy. Natural gas can be used to generate electricity in many different ways. Natural gas power plants generating more than a couple of hundred megawatts (1 megawatt = 1 MW = 1 million watts) use the same technology as coal fired power plants. Natural gas is burned to produce heat which boils water, creating steam which passes through a turbine to generate electricity. This type of power plant is rarely more than 37% efficient, releasing great amounts of excess energy (heat) into the environment. Slightly smaller natural gas power plants can use gas turbines to produce electricity. Gas turbines are similar to jet engines and can convert up to half the energy of the natural gas into electricity (50% efficient). Figure 3 is a diagram of an "Intercooled Steam-Injected Gas Turbine". For very small electrical loads, natural gas can be burned in a reciprocating engine (similar to an automobile engine) which turns a generator.

Another way to approach your question is to look at the volume and pressure of natural gas. Quantities of natural gas are measured in volume units. A cubic foot of natural gas at a temperature of 60 degrees Fahrenheit and an atmospheric pressure of 14.7 pounds per square inch is the common unit of measure. Gas production from wells and supplies to power plants are measured in thousands or millions of cubic feet (Mcf and MMcf). Resources and reserves are calculated in trillions of cubic feet (Tcf). How much is a trillion feet? Enough to fill a cube with sides two miles long! We will likely consume upwards of 32 Tcf in power generation this year in the US, and rising to 38 Tcf over the next 5 years.

The amount of energy that is obtained from the burning of a unit volume of natural gas is measured in British thermal units (Btu). One Btu is the amount of heat required to raise the temperature of one pound of water from 60 to 61 degrees Fahrenheit at normal atmospheric pressure (14.7 pounds per square inch). A cubic foot of natural gas on the average gives off 1,000 Btu, but the range of values is 500 to 1,500 Btu. So energy efficiency is somewhat variable.Energy content of natural gas varies because natural gas accumulations vary in the amount and types of energy gases they contain: the more non-combustible gases in a natural gas, the lower the Btu value. In addition, how much of any energy gas that is present in a natural gas accumulation-the mix of combustible gases-also influences the Btu value of natural gas. The more carbon atoms in a hydrocarbon gas, the higher its Btu value. To illustrate: methane typically represents more than 80 percent of energy gases. Methane contains one carbon atom per molecule; burning one cubic foot of methane gives off 1,012 Btu. Butane, possessing four carbon atoms, has a Btu value more than three times larger than that of methane. Molecular hydrogen, on the other hand, though combustible, contains no carbon atoms; its Btu value is three times smaller than that of methane.

As far as the pipeline issue is concerned, pipeline transmission is relatively efficient even over long distances. This is a good point for those who suport the idea of a Trans-Alaska NG pipeline from the northslope. For natural gas, the cycle begins at gas wells, where gas is extracted from the ground. After processing, the gas is compressed and distributed through pipelines - processes that consume a small amount of energy. According to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the overall efficiency of natural gas from source to end user is about 91%. In other words, more than 9 out of 10 units of the primary energy taken from the ground actually reach the appliance.

The problem with transporting liquid natural gas is that it first must be cooled to near absolute zero Kelvin. Then it must be transported by specially designed tankers with hulls of nickel steel and kept refrigerated. Add to this the fact that there are only about 3 LNG loading facilities in the US. There is a lot of opposition by several communities to such facilities. I believe that it was in the 1950's near Pittsburgh, PA where a small LNG-type facility exploded with several fatalities. It kinda put a damper on public acceptance of such facilities. Currently about 3% of US needs for NG is met with imported LNG (mostly from Trinidad).

So you see, your question is rather a difficult one to answer. There is a lot of variability and only a range of values good be given. I suppose if I was so inclined I could calculate a range, but I would hope that this long winded response will suffice. Besides, after a long day out in the NG fields, I am a bit worn. I posted a couple of sources that may help. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Sources:

Ruth Howes & Anthony Fainberg, The Energy Sourcebook: A Guide to Technology, Resources and Policy, American Institute of Physics, 1991.

David J. Cuff & William J. Young, The United States Energy Atlas, Second Edition, Macmillan Publishers, New York, 1986.

Chris Powell

(05/14/2001; 20:43:14 MDT - Msg ID: 53612)

Bullion banks told to cover by month's end

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/769Bullion banks told to cover by month's end,
source tells International Forecaster. Also,
response to GATA's African Gold Summit in
Durban.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Black Blade

(05/14/2001; 20:47:29 MDT - Msg ID: 53613)

Jbear - one more thing

Since you asked about LNG and LNG tankers. Unfortunately I no longer have the dimensions of a typical LNG tanker handy. The following is a snippit from the "Rise and Fall of Hydrocarbon Man" post.

Liquid natural gases and condensates could be a source of fuel. Unfortunately, the need for clean burning fuel for the current generation of power plants for the world's power grids mean that the competition for natural gas will become intense. The difficulties of liquefied natural gas (LNG) can be easily illustrated by a short case study of such a project in the small Arab country of Qatar on the western coast of the Arabian Gulf. Qatar has the third largest natural gas reserves in the world, and the country's North Field is the world's biggest source of non-associated natural gas (that is natural gas not associated with oil). The field has reserves of more than 500 trillion cubic feet - 3 times greater than in the entire US. Qatar is developing the capacity to deliver almost 11 million metric tons of LNG annually for sale to power companies and other customers in a number of Asian and European countries, as well as the United States. Natural gas is piped from the field to a processing facility. It is at this processing facility where the natural gas is liquefied by chilling it to -260 degrees Fahrenheit and transporting it in newly designed
tankers with nickel and steel membranes. Once these tankers reach their destination, the LNG is regasified and consumed as pipeline natural gas. Obviously this will help offset some of the coming oil crunch, but a lot more specialized tankers and a lot of infrastructure needs to be built.

- Black Blade

Tree in the Forest

(05/14/2001; 20:55:14 MDT - Msg ID: 53614)

Galearis

Here is the full text of the message GATA alluded to:

"Our intelligence sources have informed us that
Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan has given the
bullion banks until the end of May to clear up
their hedging and outstanding gold derivative
positions. Evidentially this process has been
going on for some time. Further, British Prime
Minister Tony Blair will try to make available,
at the upcoming British gold auction, additional
gold that will go to banks designated by
Greenspan. We were also told that AngloGold
will sell forward a designated amount of gold to
banks also specified by Greenspan. Our source
for this intelligence has been very accurate in
the past. They also said they thought that gold
would break out over $275 an ounce by Friday."

Sir Galearis, I say again, this summer!

Black Blade

(05/14/2001; 20:55:29 MDT - Msg ID: 53615)

Chris

A few days ago I posted a clip on Cheetah (AG) and Dim Wim meeting with the BIS. I didn't try to analyze this - however, I just left it to everyones imagination. I simply said "I wonder what will be discussed" or some such statement. The analysis that you present may just very well be what many here suspect. Thanks for bringing that information so we may keep our eyes and ears open. Cheers!

- Black Blade

BTW, I see that the miningweb had to open a forum for GATA supporters after their critical analysis - good luck!

Tree in the Forest

(05/14/2001; 21:06:31 MDT - Msg ID: 53616)

Camel, Beesting

Thank you sir Beesting! Your quote from Ron Paul:

"A Gold standard puts the power of the monetary system into the hands of the people and takes it away from the politicians and bankers, thus removing a potential vehicle for establishing a tyranny..."

Sir Camel: Ron Paul is the ONLY Libertarian candidate in congress. The rest of our congressmen are parsimonious demopublican patronage pushers who aren't fit to kiss the hem of his garment.

Black Blade

(05/14/2001; 21:07:46 MDT - Msg ID: 53617)

Greenspan to Take Part in BIS Meeting - Original News release

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010506/bs/economy_greenspan_dc_1.htmlSunday May 6 5:55 PM ET

BASEL, Switzerland (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan and European Central Bank President Wim Duisenberg will both take part in a meeting of central bankers on Monday at the Bank for International Settlements in Switzerland.

Greenspan and Duisenberg attended a dinner on Sunday along with Bank of England Governor Sir Edward George and other members of the Group of 10 central bankers.

As he left the dinner, Greenspan was asked by reporters whether he was there to urge the ECB to cut interest rates. He replied only: ``I am here because I am a member of this group.''

Duisenberg, who left the dinner a few minutes after Greenspan, declined to say what had been discussed during the evening.

The chairmen of the central banks of the Group of 10 countries meet periodically at the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, to discuss the world economic situation.

Peter Asher

(05/14/2001; 21:10:25 MDT - Msg ID: 53618)

@Blackblade @ J-Bear

BIG LNG Tankers.
About 15 years ago there was an article addressing the possible (& plausible) event of one of these puppies exploding. In the context of the Terminal on the North Jersey Coast, they were talking about cooking off about half the State

Tree in the Forest

(05/14/2001; 21:11:34 MDT - Msg ID: 53619)

Stradmaster

Congratulations! You and your wife must be beaming! A birthday on Mother's Day is definitely an auspicious beginning.

schippi

(05/14/2001; 21:15:55 MDT - Msg ID: 53620)

Rare Sight

http://www.SelectSectors.com/wavelet.gifUp and Away Select Gold Wavelet Chart

Black Blade

(05/14/2001; 21:19:01 MDT - Msg ID: 53621)

RE: Peter Asher

If you understand the concept of a "Fuel-Air Bomb" or the terrorist's Nuke, then you have a good grasp of the potential for a disaster. A flash to vapor and explosion could be catastrophic. I sure there are safeguards, however, anyone who is opposed to building these facilities would probably point to the Galvaston, TX shipyard ammonium Nitrate explosion several decades ago. It certainly is difficult to get permits to build. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/14/2001; 21:23:24 MDT - Msg ID: 53622)

Server farms on hot seat amid power woes

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/cn/20010514/tc/server_farms_on_hot_seat_amid_power_woes_1.html
Snippit:

Expectations of a long, hot--and dark--summer in power-strapped California is putting some of the technology industry's biggest energy consumers on the hot seat. It was an uphill battle for U.S. Dataport, a company in San Jose, Calif., that planned a $1.2 billion server farm that would be the world's largest data center. It called for 10 huge air-conditioned warehouses on 174 acres that would constantly draw 180 megawatts of electricity--about enough to provide energy for all the homes in a city the size of Honolulu.

Black Blade: The "New Economy" devours huge amounts of energy. I have addressed the server farm dilemma before. Those who claimed that the "New Economy" would save energy had better look into the facts again.

Black Blade

(05/14/2001; 21:30:52 MDT - Msg ID: 53623)

THE LATEST FROM LA-LA LAND

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nypost/20010514/cm/the_latest_from_la-la_land_1.html
Snippit:

It's good to see that the California Assembly is not letting the worst energy crisis in more than two decades get in the way of attending to truly important business. Then again, maybe that's not necessary: It's pretty clear that California already has a few dim bulbs too many in its Assembly.

Black Blade: This is good! The Grasshoppers really know how to tackle important government business. No wonder they're the laughing stock of the US.

Peter Asher

(05/14/2001; 21:42:40 MDT - Msg ID: 53624)

Hi B.B.

There is no safeguard that resurrects the dead. The movie �Outbreak� gave a good example of fuel/air bombs. Seems like the you could call them the "Carburetor of an angry God."

Black Blade

(05/14/2001; 22:03:10 MDT - Msg ID: 53625)

Precious little platinum drives up price

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,3604,491074,00.html
PGM prices may have some support because the Russian stockpiles are gone - gone as in zippo, zilch, nada, - gone. Palladium prices have been hammered. Any new PGMs from Russia are from current production which amounts to a spit in the ocean. Now the downside. The economy is in it's final death throes as industrial users are not in need of quantities of PGMs any longer. The other downside is that the TOCOM and NYMEX in effect defaulted on Palladium contracts and ripped-off many who invested in the long-term for the metal (ala Nelson and Bunker Hunt-style). These criminals bit their customers not once, but over and over again. In effect they killed the PGM paper market by milking their unsuspecting investors. Now they wonder where everyone went? In Japan, when criminals were exposed, these crooks at least had the decency to commit ritualistic suicide. Honor doesn't go far in Japan these days. Of course the NYMEX managers have always been crooks - case in point - the Hunts and the NYMEX Silver Theft.

- Black Blade

silvercollector

(05/14/2001; 22:12:38 MDT - Msg ID: 53626)

Galearis/Netking/jBear/working-kirk/megatron/all

I have an important question to any and all regarding the accumulation of silver.

Please reply to: silvercollector@hotmail.com

Black Blade

(05/14/2001; 23:09:50 MDT - Msg ID: 53627)

California NatGas Price Riding Higher

http://www.energyintel.com/ResDocDetail.asp?document_id=41286High demand and the California NG pipeline tariff continue to pressure NG prices higher. Just heard that NW hydropower is likely to be much worse than has been discussed by Washington state officials. It looks as if California can expect "No relief" from NW hydro this summer. There is a very good posibility that the NW states including Idaho and Montana may get hit hard as well due to extreme drought conditions that are likely to hit in mid-summer. Farmers may be forced to forego planting this year in order to conserve water for power. I also hear from a hydro-geologist friend who works for the state of California that the Sierra snowpack (a source of hydropower) is near critical record lows in many areas. Looks to be a long-hot-summer. Say goodbye to the Bull Market and hello to the "Golden" Bear.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/14/2001; 23:25:30 MDT - Msg ID: 53628)

Is Recession Inevitable?

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/may2001/nf20010510_832.htm
Snippit:

If the wave of layoffs continues, particularly among high-income earners, history says it's more than likely. The U.S. could still avoid recession in 2001. But with three months of declining employment on the ledger and more job cuts to come, that doesn't look likely.

- A Snippit for Rockgrabbers "Beer Index" -

BUDGET BEER. At 7-Eleven Inc., same-store sales were up almost 4% in March, after a slowdown that started last summer. CEO James W. Keyes says he adjusted to the weaker economy by offering consumers smaller, less expensive packages of milk, cigarettes, and beer.

Black Blade: We are in a recession. however, for those doubting Thomas's it looks like it will be undeniable soon enough. A Fed cut of 50 bp or more will be already accounted for and perceived as a desperate move. Grabbin' a "golden lifeboat."

Golden Dreams All!

Old Yeller

(05/15/2001; 00:18:59 MDT - Msg ID: 53629)

Fed/ECB pact?

Posted at kitco by sharefin,May 15;00:08

Interesting comments from the Privateer regarding the surprise ECB rate cut and the jump in the gold price last week.

View Yesterday's Discussion.

Peter Asher

(05/15/2001; 00:28:04 MDT - Msg ID: 53630)

ge msg#: 53567) Ravi Batra & Credit

Re: "...a monopolized economy. Some people call it `Crony Capitalism.' " and, "Wages are the main source of demand, and productivity is the main source of supply, so with the rising gap between wages and productivity there is a potential for a gap between demand and supply. And that has been occurring in the U.S. for many years now. So the question is how have we stayed afloat for so long with supply rising faster than demand? The answer is demand has remained artificially high through the creation of debt."

While I certainly agree with "Crony Capitalism" being a scourge on the economic landscape, it is not the determinant factor in labor claiming its fair share of production. The century just completed saw labor learn how to use its power to demand affluence. This probably peaked out in the fifties, then taxation became the new enemy, eroding the gains achieved.

Now, the stock market, as the contemporary `opiate of the masses' has blindsided workers. Stock market profits generate a feeling of perceived prosperity. Without this added to their state of affluence, the sheeple would clamor more loudly for a bigger pie slice. The fact that it's built on a foundation of other people's money is beyond their ken. Most of them are too young to remember Pogo's most famous line "We have found the enemy and he is us."

eg; you say "It follows that in a classical gold standard without fractional reserve banking, wages have to increase to equate demand to supply." That is technically correct, but a contemporary inventory-based economy empirically cannot function without debt. Fractional reserve banking is not the cause of the problem though. It actually mitigates the dilemma.

Granted, a gold standard would be based on full collateral, whereas fractional reserve banking is based on partial. BUT, credit doesn't have to be collateralized at all!!! Credit is only as damaging as it fails to facilitate production and those peripheral activities which make it possible.

It is the composite of the unethical person-to-person, group-to-group and nation-to-nation exchange relationships which is the source of the inequity on Planet Earth.

Old Yeller

(05/15/2001; 00:36:22 MDT - Msg ID: 53631)

Rogue trader at the LSE

http://money.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2001/05/15/cnftse15.xml
Quote from the link by one Dave Morris at Financial Spreads;

"Someone has a lot to answer for.They have just moved the market 130 points in one go,which is an appalling thing for a market to do."

So how come when Uncle Al does the same thing and moves the very much larger US market by an equally significant percentage to the upside,he is lauded by the talking heads?

Thanks to cjk at Kitco for the link.

Netking

(05/15/2001; 01:29:24 MDT - Msg ID: 53632)

Auspec/JMB/Leland/SilverCollector

Sir auspec(53599)good Ag posts.

JMB/Leland - Hi y'all, Hopefully Don_L's computer doesn't start "shorting" and have "The Borg" jumping out from the middle of his cube, I wont to be assimilated!

Silver Collector,You can reach me on:

Ag Thought: In reflection then, do the posters on this forum collectively hold more Ag than the Chinese? Mmmm...

The Invisible Hand

(05/15/2001; 01:38:42 MDT - Msg ID: 53633)

2087 ?

MIDAS COMMENTARY FOR MAY 14, 2001

�
Here's a bombshell
�
Our intelligence sources have informed us that
Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan has given the
bullion banks until the end of May to clear up
their hedging and outstanding gold derivative
positions.

---

End of May? Which year please?

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/15/2001; 03:29:05 MDT - Msg ID: 53634)

The Rocket School of Economics... an update!

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/RocketSchool/vonBraun.htmlWhat does Professor von Braun have to say about the investment prospects in the yellow metal and those who mine it?

Click the link and find out!

Rockgrabber

(05/15/2001; 03:36:59 MDT - Msg ID: 53635)

What are the people in Cali up to?

I live up in the mountains a bit, but had to travel to the low country yesterday. I went by the school, where parents were picking up there kids. I am not joking when I say that HALF had SUVs. Suburbans and Expeditions, and if they were not its just cause they gave up size for luxury, and were driving there mercedes or beeemers. You can own them if you want, but these people are on barrorowed time, and money. Full of self-pride these people are as well. Everyone of them is the perfect MODEL AMERICAN. They work all life with never stopping to watch. They are caught up in the rat race perfectly. Born, School, work, familly, retire, death. They dont want you to see any more then that. That is the American Dream. I wonder where we would be if we actually listened to our Maker instead? Californias are ignorant beyond beliefe. I wish to ask them all this question. What is the reason you have it so good? Anyways I know none of you are feeling sorry for us here in California, and I hope you keep it that way. How anyone can feel sympathy for us here in California or anywhere in the US I dont fathom. Let us pay for our ignorance!!! Let us pay now!!

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/15/2001; 04:06:28 MDT - Msg ID: 53636)

Get your advance copy (pdf) of the May 2001 News & Views newsletter here

http://www.usagold.com/newsviews.htmlJust use the same codes you use to access the Commentary & Review section.

Typically, your userID is your last name (first letter capitalized), and your password is your e-mail address.

Canuck

(05/15/2001; 04:35:30 MDT - Msg ID: 53637)

Gold rising into the auction?

This is new!!!

b>goforgold

(05/15/2001; 04:41:26 MDT - Msg ID: 53638)

test

test...

ORO

(05/15/2001; 05:24:50 MDT - Msg ID: 53640)

HBM - quoting myself re mortgages and debt

In order for you to answer appropriately, perhaps this excerpt from an ongoing writing project will help.

"....Under inflationary conditions, when the official monetary unit is suspect (the uncertainty in its future purchasing power is increased or increasing), consumers will allocate time transactions (savings and investments) away from the monetary unit. They will prefer holding houses much larger than they want for actual use, borrow against their future income in order to spend it at current prices, and will turn to equity investment that provides a fixed portion of the purchasing power of future cash flows from business (monetary cash flows are commonly expected to grow with the fall of the purchasing power of the monetary unit) rather than debt instruments, which provide a fixed monetary payout which is unrelated to the inflating money's purchasing power.

"Under these conditions, real estate and equities are not valued as investments alone, but also as money for time transactions - savings. As time proceeds, a preference develops for the more liquid items and for those exhibiting a more steady or growing purchasing power. Eventually, concurrent transactions are conducted in the most liquid items. Companies buy each other with stock, compensate their suppliers and their employees with stock, and people use these as a substitute for monetary savings. For the less liquid portion of their portfolio they use housing, land, and vacation real estate, as well as antiques and art. All these items obtain part of the monetary premium in their prices, which may appear absurdly high to people considering their purchase for non-monetary uses (real estate to live and vacation in, equity investments for their expected real future cash flows, or antiques and art for their beauty rarity history and value as envy inducers).

"The monetary premium accorded these items is reflected in the willingness of people to borrow against them. In effect, shorting the currency and going long the substitutes. It is also reflected in the willingness of lenders to accept these items as security for making loans. Tax preferences allowing tax advantaged "investments" and tax advantaged borrowing for homes exacerbate the situation. Debt instruments increasingly are held in tax advantaged long term investment accounts (pension funds, IRAs, 401ks), and low taxed items are increasingly held for shorter term monetary purposes (and less so for investment). Real estate borrowing and contributions to tax advantaged accounts increases according to the tax preference this financial position provides. Thus one maintains a high mortgage (repeatedly re-mortgaging the house) for the reduced effective interest rate, and offsets this by increasing the contributions to his retirement through owning an equivalent to his own mortgage in the tax advantaged investment accounts. Rather than pay down a mortgage, the tax advantage provides a direct benefit from moving money into tax advantaged accounts. One can borrow at an after tax rate of 4-5% against one's house, and put the proceeds in a tax advantaged account where one owns the same mortgage receiving a current tax benefit of 20% to 45% of the retirement contribution (equal to the increase in the mortgage loan amount) and putting the funds in the investment account, where it earns the nominal rate of the mortgage; 7%. The result is a spendable earnings increase of 20-45% of the increased mortgage amount for the same year, without a substantially increased financial risk once past the first few years. In a Roth type IRA, the return is simply 2-3% per year of the mortgage amount increase (at the current 7%+ a bit rate), thus making even a home equity loan into a breakeven proposition at 10%, and the above into a profitable proposition. Increases in real estate values are pocketed in the future or by increasing the mortgage amount in the present. It is simply a matter of tax and interest rate arbitrage rather than being new indebtedness. It is a financial positioning of being net long real estate for monetary purposes. "

It should also be pointed out that the extremes of demographics play somewhat into the picture. People look ahead to their earnings potential at various points in the future, which brings them to make career decisions and to a set of expectations regarding future real income. While these are right or wrong on a personal level, they have a general truth common to them, where real annual income is rightly expected to reach a peak at about the age of 55 +/-5, beyond which it does not grow (but for a few extremely successful individuals). Therefore, one should expect people in their 40s to be loaded up on debt at the maximum proportion, as the future incomes they can see in their projected future are reaching a peak, while expenditures on children's educations, housing (we all know what demand for space teenagers have), future weddings and assisting children's home buying, reach a peak. The result would be that by the age of 50, debt relative to future income would have reached a peak. At that point debt reduction and savings for retirement would become the more significant issues.

Since there is a demographic bubble, one should expect the debt to projected future income ratio to peak at the time the demographic bubble peaks for 50 year olds. The demographic bubble peaked in 1960, the year of maximum births in the US, giving a peak at 2010. Immigration has skewed the peak backwards during the 60s and 70s, but has skewed it forward and delayed the time till the number of peak earnings winners start falling (they are rising now). Looking at the expected future lifetime income for Americans, we can make a judgment as to whether people are hedging their future income or spending with all their might. At a 5% expansion rate over the past 5-6 years, expected future income accounts for all but 2.5%-3% of the total debt growth, when counting only official income. When unofficial income from stock options is counted in, current income was much greater in growth till 2000, even without the consideration of it joining expectations for future repetition - even if at 40% of prior levels. Thus the actual income growth through 1999 was upwards of the 8% growth in debt. If one considers unrealized housing capital gains, and portfolio capital gains (also a demographic factor when the number of people grows by over 1% per year, and income earners by about the same), then the debt numbers are completely blown away as real estate appreciation has added an unrealized gain of 30%+ (see price gain at time of refinancing statistics from Fannie Mae) since the prior refinancing wave in 1998.

I would say that the American saver is still doing what he had done before, and has simply avoided "ordinary monetary savings", preferring instead "things that recently correlated with inflation" as the means for saving.

The Invisible Hand

(05/15/2001; 05:33:58 MDT - Msg ID: 53641)

Her Majesty's Treasury's Gold Auction Results

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/Links/setframe.htmlFrom Kitco
Date: Tue May 15 2001 07:15
JPS (Auction Results $268 3.7 x oversubscribed)

justamereBear

(05/15/2001; 05:49:11 MDT - Msg ID: 53642)

Thanks to those who responded, particularly Black Blade

Thanks BB for all the time. My hope was to get the equation into headline form. In order that the new 20+ megawatts be generated, we are going to have to import "X" amount of cubic feet of NG valued at "Y" (according to todays prices) and we do not have the infastructure to do that so we are going too have to build "Z" special boats, and you know how long that will take. Mostly so me, mr Joe average can get their mind around that numbers. Unfortunately, mankind is still pretty primitive, and counts 1,2,3, many. Your cube of two miles on a side was a very good example. Both from an educational point of view, and as an example of what I was shooting at.

The problem, as I see it is that if you spoke of a billion cubic feet, or a trillion cubic feet, few people would see much difference. Most people can not even tell you how many zeros in a Trillion. Both numbers are incomprehensive to 99.99% of humanity.

For me, I have an easier time as you note that usage of NG is going up by 20% over the next 5 years. All i have to wonder is whether they included in that estimate, all the new NG fired power plants that will have to be constructed to meet the growing need for electricity.

I was trying to simplify the equation, for the peasants, (me included)

Anyway Thanks. Personally I can figure out what I need to from the numbers you provided.

Best Regards, In Haste
j'Bear

The Invisible Hand

(05/15/2001; 06:27:31 MDT - Msg ID: 53643)

H M Government Gold Auction Result: 15 May 2001

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/Links/setframe.htmlH M Government Gold Auction Result: 15 May 2001

15 May 2001

The Bank of England announces that the gold on offer (approximately 20 tonnes or 643,200 ounces)has been allotted in full at a price of $268.00 per ounce. Details of the result are as follows:

Amount of gold on offer (approx.) 643,200 oz
Amount applied for 2,387,200 oz
Times covered 3.7 times
Amount allotted to bidders 644,400 oz
Allotment price $268.00
Scaling factor at allotment price 72.3619%

All accepted bids which were made at prices above the allotment price have been allotted in full at the allotment price. Valid bids made at the allotment price have been allotted an amount of gold equal to the amount bid for multiplied by the above scaling factor and rounded up to the nearest 400 ounces.
By close of business in London today, applicants whose bids have been successful in whole or in part will be notified by the Bank of England of the exact weight of the gold bars allotted to them and the amount payable in respect of their purchase. Payment must be made in US dollars to the Bank of England's account at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, no later than 12 noon New York time on 17 May 2001.

The Invisible Hand

(05/15/2001; 06:49:34 MDT - Msg ID: 53644)

"The reaction will be swift, certain and severe"

These were Clinton's words on the day of the Oklahoma bombing.
Wasn't 1995 the period in which the gold manipulation started?

colourofmoney

(05/15/2001; 07:34:49 MDT - Msg ID: 53645)

GATA's so called bombshell

First they give credit to Veneroso's calculated short position of up to 16.000 tonnes and now that chap Chapman claims he has access to privileged information that AG has told bullion bankers to cover before the end of May. Cover a couple of thousand tonnes in a hurry ?

GATA had done a good job by pointing to the absurdity in the long run of hedging, but is acting quite desperate now to keep the attention going.

Mr Gresham

(05/15/2001; 07:47:10 MDT - Msg ID: 53646)

HOF Nomination: Sierra Madre (05/14/01; 11:56:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 53574)

Sierra Madre:

I nominate for HOF the parts of this message you may wish to keep or (I hope) elaborate upon, although now that I think about it, something about Dr. Johnson would not be amiss in this forum which is re-discovering the nearly-lost centuries old art of letter-writing. (Good writing, clear thinking, and a topic worthy of the time spent together upon it. Might there someday be a Boswell to this Forum's Johnson?)

This post touched me as to my place in the larger world of "monetary" dealings and why it feels so crazy -- but necessary -- to be doing what I'm doing. Beyond the daily link I have with my companions here, it links me to those who have been in our situation (or wished they were) throughout history. I've acquired all the facts, of course, as we all have before this from reading here. But I believe Sierra Madre has stated the context almost perfectly.

You gave us, especially well (and, by your inclusion, beginning the rehabilitation of the h-word -- "hoarding"):

"I take the opportunity of mentioning that those of us who are hoarding gold, are doing something that has not been the rule through history. We are taking advantage of a unique, once in an age - not once in a lifetime - opportunity of accumulating a stock of precious gold at ridiculously low prices. Hoarding gold was a relatively rare activity throughout history. Gold was held, by economically active people, as an inventory for liquidation of obligations and as a stock for investment in current economic activity. Thus, this hoarding which we are engaged in, is something completely out of the ordinary, something not generally present in "normal" times. This is why we are subject to opprobrium by the generality of mankind, who do not understand the nature of our times. We are those who see more clearly, and we are necessarily few.

"I think we should reflect that not only are we hoarding gold, our "positive" action, but we should also understand what we are NOT doing. What we are not doing, is "investing" as the world knows it today. We are really and actually on strike, in the Randian sense.

"We are on strike, refusing to act in the "normal" manner, because we are unsatisfied with the conditions under which we are asked to perform the act of investing. We are the object of ridicule (which masks the fear felt by those who do not want to understand our position) because our actions do not fit the general pattern. Thus we are denigrated as "goldbugs".

"When I am offered a GOLD BOND, issued by a serious company or a serious government, in a legal framework which will offer me guarantees, I may abandon part of my strike attitude. I may consider investing, because the conditions satisfy me. Not before that, will I part with any gold.

"I think that at present, "normal investors" will in due course, abandon equities ... and head for US Treasury obligations. But, the enormous, gigantic debt load in the US and the world generally, will force a corresponding inflation of the money supply, in order to provide liquidity for that debt: make it payable, of course, but in ever smaller dollars or euros or what-have-you.

"Those "normal investors", US persons and foreigners, who thought they were secure in US Treasuries, for instance, will find that they have only one alternative to "guaranteed confiscation": precious metals. Then, the current will shift in our favor, and it will turn out we are the wise men."

ORO

(05/15/2001; 08:32:29 MDT - Msg ID: 53647)

Black Blade - LNG

Any idea of how much LNG can be carried on a Refrigerated tanker and what the empty ship weighs per mil c.ft capacity? How much nickel per mil c.ft. is necessary?

This sounds so much like another coal to power rail to make steel to make rails to carry coal - where the industrial base of the West was built. Nat gas to power steel production to make drill rigs and LNG ships to carry LNG to power steel...

This is characteristic of a resource investment boom where, like the 70s, most of the investment effort produced nothing of tangible value to the consumer till the investment boom was over. At that point, the consumption of both energy and heavy industrial material and equipment to produce it fall "like a rock" and the resources are freed from the draw resulting from construction of their new capacity.

During the resource boom, living standards in industrialized economies fall while investment outside the resource sector focuses on conservation for cost savings (at the commercial level and consumer level) rather than on producing "more" and "better".

Galearis

(05/15/2001; 08:43:17 MDT - Msg ID: 53648)

@Tree in the Forest, auspec, Netking, all

bull silver,....Firstly, welcome back farfel and I hope to enjoy some artful comments from you again.

It is difficult for me to spend too much time on the forum these days (in spite of the growing excited expectations), the distractions from the other great outsides is in conflict: the small white lady's-slippers are just starting to bloom and the spring ephemerals are in full glory.

Thanks for the comments yesterday auspec and Tree in the Forest. But the point I think I was trying to make is a continuing theme with me. Systemic risk, in what ever other form to that of the banking system, IS TOLERATED and gold and other hard assets that are in competition with currencies are at best viewed by both the FED and the ECB with greatly mixed feelings. Hard assets will always be in competition to fiat currencies to the greater extent and manipulation/management is a given for as long as humanly possible. Gold AND silver will be treated by the powers that be in the way that is considered to best reflect what these entities feel to be in their respective national interests. If Kodak goes under, for example, due to lack of silver there will be copious crocodile tears shed to be sure. If silver is needed CHEAPLY for strategic defense reasons and so on, the shenanigans will continue and that will be the way of it. There WILL likely be a bull of sorts, but always a managed one, one that will cause the minimum of disturbance in the national interests. I think one should realize by now that "management" of these pm markets has been acculturated and is part of society as much as pork barreling politicians. But really, the question remains should one consider this a worst case scenario or the logical end game reflecting a continuum of the history of these markets? In the coming turbulent times to what extent this will happen will be mitigated by how well the rest of the world, other cultures and world views (Peoples Rep of China, for example) play along.

Galearis

(05/15/2001; 08:47:54 MDT - Msg ID: 53649)

One more point...on gold

lease rates are spiking up big time...So today they pull out the stops for the attack. Curious.

G.

USAGOLD

(05/15/2001; 08:49:54 MDT - Msg ID: 53650)

Auction comments. . . . .

I won't be filing a market report today, but I do have a comment about the BOE auction.

This bi-monthly affair has just about gotten out of control when it comes to the anlaysis, apologia, breast-beating and attack-rhetoric pouring out of the London and New York trading houses. We should keep in mind that these auctions comprise a miniscule 20 tonnes of gold. According to the World Gold Council that amount of gold annualized (240 tonnes) is being taken up just by major private investors simply looking to shore up their portfolios -- not even considering some of the other sources of extraneous demand, like short covering.

You wouldn't know it from the amount of publicity that the gold lenders (and bears) get out of these paltry auctions on a bi-monthly basis. I can envision a time when the BOE reduces its offerings to one tonne per auction and the London analysts crank up the mainframes, revert to the calculus text, and employ wholly the vagaries of Black-Scholes modelling in order decipher for us the meaning of it all. It's like counting the number of ants swarming on a crumb of bread to determing whether or not the crumb is meaningful to the total ant population.

I'm sure even if the allotment were a lonely, single tonne the net message spread in every financial section and internet news network in the West would be "Stay out of gold, stick with the dollar and the pound. We got this thing under control. We only had a 3.7 times bid to cover ratio on this tonne gold."

But do "they" have things under control? The fact that the Bank of England finds it necessary to keep a lid on the price of gold implies that the price wants to go up. And why do they believe that the price of gold wants to go up? Something to think about in this "morning after" for gold owners and advocates.

We shouldn't forget that these auctions came about after all attempts by Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown to dislodge gold from other sources, including the IMF, failed and failed miserably. Gordon Brown then turned to the BOE (which according to some reports claims it acceded to political pressure from the Blair government.) I still wonder what's going-on in foggy London-town with respect to gold. . . And all the piling on by so-called analysts this morning hasn't done a thing to lift the cloud of suspicion that hangs so heavily over the major gold operations on either side of the pond. As owners of the physical metal, we can afford to sit back and wait for history to take its course. With lease rates solidly at levels five to six times the historical mean, something is going-on in the gold market and it isn't just a series of weak-kneed auctions.

USAGOLD

(05/15/2001; 08:54:36 MDT - Msg ID: 53651)

Correction:

The amount of gold to be auctioned by the BOE is 120 tonnes per year. . .not 240. Sorry about the errors below, in a hurry this morning and just wanted to get this post up.

Mr Gresham

(05/15/2001; 09:09:00 MDT - Msg ID: 53652)

goforgold

Ah, a homophobic peacenik! Now I've lived long enough to see it all! (smile) But I do love to wake up to Jeremiah in the morning. (Not a regular Bible person anymore, so I appreciate it when others give me a refresher.)

I'm sure someone else will provide you with a heads up on bringing your deeper thoughts into our conversations here...

Welcome!

ORO

(05/15/2001; 09:14:10 MDT - Msg ID: 53653)

Berlusconi and Austria take II

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/europe/newsid_1331000/1331152.stmSeems like the Eurocracy lost another country to the side of freedom and independence from the self important left. The leftist pro-EU political establishments of France and Germany, enjoying strong support from the media (just take a look at the nearly uniform criticism accross Europe's front pages), the academic inteligentzia, and trade unions, still managed to lose the election by a near landslide.

From the article:
""Europe defeated

The left-wing Paris daily Liberation says that, after the media, property development and football sectors, Mr Berlusconi now "has brought Italy under his boot heel".

But in its editorial, it says the legitimacy of his victory is beyond dispute.

"Such is the law of parliamentary democracy," it says. "There is no question of challenging the legitimacy of a man whose true nature the Italian people ought to know in detail."

Bratislava's Sme takes a similar view.

"Like it or not, Silvio Berlusconi, the Italian centre-right leader and one of the richest men on the planet, has won Italy's parliamentary elections," it says.

"Mr Berlusconi did not defeat just the centre-left Olive Tree, but the whole of Europe," it adds.

Germany's Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung says Italy's voters used the election to "teach others in both Italy and Europe a lesson".

It says the arguments of the "uninvited guardians of Italy's democratic morals" were firmly rejected by the people of Italy.""

Also:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/europe/newsid_1329000/1329681.stm

Highlights of programs (would sound familliar to Americans):

Tax cuts:
to 23% income tax on middle class (still leaves VAT at 17%?)
Top income tax rate at 33%,
eliminate estate taxes,
eliminate taxes on retained earnings.

Education reform (how??)

More police (boo!!)

New competitive bidding on "public" projects.

New voucher system for state funded healthcare to provide competition.

Simplification plan for civil, criminal and tax law (like it is in the US, there is an incomprehensible law against anything you might think of doing).

Even with a majority in both houses, a true rarity in Italy, he still must contend with the political instinct for power (for the purpose of expanding patronage) among the parliamentarians and top career bureaucracy (the core of the left).

Mr Gresham

(05/15/2001; 09:22:33 MDT - Msg ID: 53654)

Gofo & goforgold

http://www.lbma.org.uk/2001gofo.htmgoforgold: Of course, I meant for a (smile) after my first sentence, too. It's just that my head is still spinning after reading so much...

Gofo:

So when we click onto that LBMA chart, the first column is showing the (now-reduced) carry trade profit rate? It's all laid out there for the gold borrow-and-sellers to wake up to in the morning and sell-sell-sell?

Down from a 5% rate at the beginning of 2001, to around 2% now. They've gotta be re-calculating their risks of rolling over new contracts, but now I'm wondering my background question about the potential short-covering spike:

With LBMA volume down over past years, and Comex open interest down, WHERE is that (Veneroso) 16,000 tonne short position hiding? Or am I just not putting my trading volume vs. open positions information together correctly?

Gold Trail Update

(05/15/2001; 09:50:12 MDT - Msg ID: 53655)

The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated

The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.

Tree in the Forest

(05/15/2001; 10:10:56 MDT - Msg ID: 53656)

All-the wrong "p" word

http://www.m-w.com/home.htmLast night I made a stupid error in posting as I am wont when tired. I used the wrong "p" word. Of course I realized this only after turning off the computer. I used "parsimonious" when I actually wanted to use "pusillanimous" as in:

: lacking courage and resolution : marked by contemptible timidity

Of course correcting this error is extremely important! and also a good opportunity to repost something worth saying again. So with my apologies and without further ado, here is the corrected post:

Tree in the Forest (05/14/01; 21:06:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 53616)
Camel, Beesting

Thank you sir Beesting! Your quote from Ron Paul:
"A Gold standard puts the power of the monetary system into the hands of the people and takes it away from the politicians and bankers, thus removing a potential vehicle for establishing a tyranny..."

Sir Camel: Ron Paul is the ONLY Libertarian candidate in congress. The rest of our congressmen are pusillanimous demopublican patronage pushers who aren't fit to kiss the hem of his garment.

There now. I feel better! LOL!

Many thanks to the Merriam-Webster online dictionary/thesaurus (at the above link) and humble apologies to these hallowed halls for forcing everyone to use the dictionary to read my posts. It's good to expand one's vocabulary!

RossL

(05/15/2001; 10:13:19 MDT - Msg ID: 53657)

Mr Gresham #53654

You asked: "With LBMA volume down over past years, and Comex open interest down, WHERE is that (Veneroso) 16,000 tonne short position hiding? Or am I just not putting my trading volume vs. open positions information together correctly?"

Many of the private transactions involving investors, bullion banks and gold mines will not appear on COMEX or LBMA volume statistics. Those two establishments are but clearing houses. There is no requirement to do business through them.

(05/15/2001; 10:21:35 MDT - Msg ID: 53658)

Peter Asher msg#: 53630

Thank you for your comments. I agree that this is a very dynamic world and one cannot design foolproof systems for the society. Nonetheless, we can compare the proposed alternatives, and, hopefully, point out the one(s) which make life easier.

Credit? I am not against credit. The argument is that, the source of the consumer credit is the rising gap between wages and productivity. Close that gap and consumer credit decreases, but naturally, it won't go away. Credit for industrial production should come from the savings, otherwise it is a bubble, isn't it?

Un-collateralized credit? Well, where should I apply for one?

ORO

(05/15/2001; 10:30:37 MDT - Msg ID: 53659)

Camel - on the Rand and myself

Much as I am informed of Rand, which was a high school obsession of sorts, I had noted one substantial flaw in her basic moral analysis; the near absence of a treatment of family and close friendship (there she deals with the value of concurrence and similarity, but leaves the effects of long familiarity and its value outside moral and social analysis). Some reading of Hayek would have helped her there.

I take more of my cues from what I can analyze from the Mises and Rothbard methodologies and basic principles, as well as my junior high fascination with a classical economics school text by an unremembered author about the development of the English economy to 1900. I am informed on the motivations of the state by Davison, Reese Mogg, von Creveld, Mises (read his "Bureaucracy"), and my own experiences as a government technocrat, and in working for a large government consultant dealing with technocrats and career bureaucracy. I am also somewhat informed by the great Churchil history of the English Speaking People.

Much of what I write contains my own observations, though as any other thinker, I stand on the shoulders of giants, thus masking my own diminutive stature. E.g. that the stability of purchasing power of a fiat currency is at odds with the cost of the system to its issuer; i.e. the fiat system that would be "honest" and retain purchasing power over time is also the one that would produce a net loss to government, that would, therefore, reject it in favor of a less costly "gold standard" of some sort.

Another example is the identification of a premium the US government collects from the guarantee of trade settlement through FDIC and the Fed, in the form of below market rates on its debts. A corolary of this is the analysis that led me to believe the interest rates on government paper reflect an interest rate less than the market's expectation of future currency depreciation rates (inflation). Another is that the originary interest is a component in the spread between government bonds and commercial equivalents, but is not paid by government - which rather charges that rate to the market as a discount to its currency depreciation rate.

Another analysis I do routinely and which I have seen discussed but not done anywhere was the analysis of the demand and supply for money and monetary assets for the purpose of debt repayment rather than demand for money and substitutes as cash balances alone.

Another is the calculation of the originary interest contribution from commodities traded on the speculative markets (gone from -3 to -4% in 1998-9 to +3.5% in Summer 2000, to 7.5% lately, and people are questioning whether we are entering a recession) where the originary interest contribution from each commodity is the answer to the question: "how much more of the same commodity will the market give me, say 1 year down the road, in return for my selling my inventory (or current production) now?"

I also liked my analysis of investment vs. spending decisions (not spending vs. savings in gold, antiques, art etc., which I have not explored completely) where the portion of total income spent is inverrsely related to the expected return on investment, and proportional to expected price inflation. Therefore, the "wealth effect" spending works only if expected future returns are lower than current realizable returns. Thus spending (as a portion of total income including capital gains) would rise more quickly during a bear market than during a bull market, so long as stock related gains (income) do not constitute more than 50% of average realizable after tax income.

Another one of my favorites was the realization that the Congress' dictation of preferential tax treatment for company payout in the form of capital gains (realized by share buybacks) would close the stock market to being a net supplier of capital to corporations, which instead raise money by borrowing, and by borrowing labor from their employees and current stock holders (after they bought the stock) in the form of stock options (held for 4 years on average until vesting).

If you think all this is "Rand" pure and simple, then I would be flattered a little, but would discount your analysis of anything.

As I have said before, my ideology is derived from analyses such as the above, on the one hand, and seperately from the basic Misesian, Rothbardian and Lockian thought that people interact for mutual benefit when violence is not involved, thus an interaction under threat or reality of violence can only result in the detriment of at least one side, and most often do damage to all sides. In a coercive condition, all interaction results in a negative overall result.

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/15/2001; 11:30:15 MDT - Msg ID: 53660)

Tree @ # 53656 & 53616 (pusillanimous )

Congressman Phillip Crane of Illinois is certainly a libertarian. You can add him to the list. The list is short and I can think of no other. Problem is - his age and having been beaten down since the late 70's and early 80's,
his effectiveness has been minimal in recent years.

William E. Simon, former "Oil Czar" and former "Secretary of the Treasury" (recently deceased) was a closet libertarian (if that is possible). I was so sad that he passed on. Were it not for his illness and late arrival at the libertarian position, he would have been such a support, powerful, though hidden, for Ron Paul.

You are right that Ron Paul is almost alone. Surely he is aware that "usagoldites" are probably his strongest base of support, but as "Sir Sierra Madre" has pointed out, "we are few".

Very respectfully,

HBM

Gandalf the White

(05/15/2001; 11:32:07 MDT - Msg ID: 53661)

Please SIR ORO -- Expand this thought for the SLOW Hobbits.

SIR ORO says(05/15/01; 10:30:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 53659)

"Another is the calculation of the originary interest contribution from commodities traded on the speculative markets (gone from -3 to -4% in 1998-9 to +3.5% in Summer 2000, to 7.5% lately, and people are questioning whether we are entering a recession) where the originary interest contribution from each commodity is the answer to the question: "how much more of the same commodity will the market give me, say 1 year down the road, in return for my selling my inventory (or current production) now?"
*******
SIR ORO -- Please go slow and expand this thought !! It looks as if it has a LOT of potential PROOF, but the Hobbits are not able to follow the complete picture. This may be the PROOF that can be shown to all the non-believers.
======
<;-)

Trail Guide

(05/15/2001; 11:36:06 MDT - Msg ID: 53662)

Last Comment for a while

Hello all, I have a few replies and comments to make (smile).

Journeyman (05/13/01; 08:26:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 53512)
Human nature and the gold standard @Trail Guide, ORO, beesting, Turnaround, ALL

You write:
----1. According to Trail Guide, "Gold money was cash money and credit wasn't offered in mass."

So, you didn't borrow against future hours of your life to go to a fancy resaurant (and give more of your future hours to banksters in the form of interest). Instead you saved-up from the past hours of your production, had the same meal in that fancy restaurant - - - and _didn't_ pay interest to the
banking establishment. You kept the amount you would have paid in interest - - - which gave you the appetizer in next month's fancy dinner. What's wrong with that? (Of course! - - - The bankers don't like it!)
end
---------

Well, my self evident point was that without banks (back then), people didn't want to loan their money. This is and was a fact. As our world society has matured over centuries, one item has stood out; people want to borrow and borrow a lot. In some ways this is good, in most ways this is
awful. It's our nature to make a mess of our financial lives with borrowed money. Still, this does not negate the reality that credit demand is a somewhat driving force in us. We are willing to pay the relative cheap returns (interest) in order to borrow fiat, but always rebel at the high real returns required to borrow gold. It's been that simple.

No, there isn't anything wrong with paying as we go, and that item was not the thrust of my point. The direction taken was to note the reality we as an economic body have evolved into. That reality requires that we be provided with a fiat currency to borrow, even if it's cheap interest (relative to gold) is adjunct through eventual price inflation. And the tax on our wealth such represents.

You write:

-----Perhaps, you're thinking, "But there would be no money available for capital equipment and development. How then do you explain that the period up thru 1913 (the year we clandestinely went off the gold standard because of the passage of the Federal Reserve Act) was perhaps the
most prosperous in American history with a growth rate well above 4% per year? Without modern credit, people would indeed be more careful what they gambled on, ah, invested in, but history strongly suggests that didn't mean they didn't gamble, ah, invest. There probably would not have
been a .com mania, etc., if we were still on the gold standard. What's wrong with that?
end
---------

Well, you have absolutely made my point (smile). Our economic function, prior to 1913, was constrained by the fact that no one would pay the high rates said gold system demanded. Any type of gold discipline drives down credit expansions once they hit the credit limits that limited gold
demands. This is, as I stated before, perfect in the eyes of our hard money masters and I agree completely.

However, I and we hard money people does not a total society make. The very reason hard money systems fail is because they all engage credit lending. Hard money and credit do not and will not mix because:

!! the economy "us people" built on "this credit" will fail and destroy "our assets" if said credit extension is stopped by a gold standard. That is the exact reason the fed left gold in 1913!!

Once again, every thing yourself and ORO state only builds my case. That is because all of your examples and demonstrated positions are built upon a singular gold money system that must include credit.

You write:

------2. I don't know who Trail Guide has been hanging-out with these days, but I do know that while I've run across crooks in my day, there are nowhere near the percentage of crooks among my friends and family - - or even among my acquaintences - - as there are in Washington D.C.
end
------

Well, I have none in my family (that I know of smile). But I have to ask, where have you been while gaining your fundamental economic perspective? I know that in my earth, crooks are everywhere.

As an adjunct, let me repost an earlier relevant post I made to you:

Trail Guide (04/25/01; 18:00:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 52549)
Journeyman (04/24/01; 13:39:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 52464)

Mr. Journeyman,
Excellent presentation of your position! Thank you.

The main point I am making about gold and money is directly related to your first statement.

You write:

-------we DON'T need fiat, and neither "the people" nor "society" decided to go from the classical gold standard to FED fiat. That change was foisted on "the people" AND "society" by the banking-government cliques, with the express purpose of profiting these two groups at the expense
of the rest of the population.
end
--------

Absolutely Journeyman. Your articulated account is regarded as an unshakable law amongst our Western hard money crowd. Indeed, it is this very perception that drives the rethinking today about fiat's relationship with gold. That thinking is spelled out in self evident form in this passage from the trail:

"" It's not the management of money that was the problem, it was the management of man's authority to maintain gold and it's discipline. Over and over, we watch good monetary theory fail as society fails to control their controllers.""

This is the root problem we face in advancing another of your classical gold standards. The people could not rebuff the forces that "foisted" the evil upon them. The problem is not deciphering whether someone else did the deed, it is in the understanding that it can and will happen again.
Society nor mankind itself can manage those that can and do these changes for their own gain. This is what we face, this is what we address.

As a further measure of defining and rebuffing this dilemma, I went on to say:

"" The road before us is to not manage gold. Rather, stop (to stop managing) it entirely. Forget about calling it official money and let it seek it's own level against every fiat as a worldly wealth.""

Even if the charge of returning us to a "classical gold standard" was given unconditionally to Sir Journeyman, this person would face all the exact same pressured his predecessors faced. The account of history and our experience with human nature all say he would do no better.

Further, to mitigate the loss all of us experience as this repeats, I made this point:

"" Indeed, while we may never overcome the human failures of war and fiat inflation, the wealth of common man does not have to be expended while society tries yet another time.""

That simple reply, my friend addresses all our experience with moneys.

end
----------------

This is our direction and thrust. Society would, as ORO makes the point, always pick gold as their tradable wealth. However, it is society's "lot in life" to always want credit,,,,,, then rebel in paying back said credit by diluting the payment terms. Usually by changing the rules so fiat replaces the very gold they borrowed. Hard money thought has always tried to paint the government and
bankers as the villain in this and tried to structure rules and laws so as to control them. Then it all happens again. After all these years of attempting to manage gold as a medium of exchange, we define gold simply be a tradable wealth without credit availability. This lone action would replace thousands of laws and rules our past experiments required. Yet, they failed anyway.

Even ET lays out that such a proposition is in his eyes is "" socialism"" ET (05/12/01#: 53493).

---------I prefer free markets over your socialism------- Seems to fly in the face of any kind of gold advocacy.
end
------------

I say that the only socialist mind is the hard money one that must dilute gold's value through credit. All done for the purpose of extending their Western power structures. Structures that could not achieve the dominance in currency they did without defrauding gold by combining it with credit. Truly, the wise gold advocate can see the socialist slant that motivates a hard money advocate's need for credit. Like tomatos, they start out green and eventually turn red! The same for Egold, sold as pure gold untill credit demands ripen it's creators appetite.

Journeyman, you write in: Journeyman (05/13/01; 00:07:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 53501)

---------"Yes, this legal tender fiat money,,,,, this concept of digital trading wealth,,,, is used by
most as an "International Protocol" contract,,,,, made common through the IMF and the Jamaica Accords! It's
the same US dollar system that made the settlement of debt in gold almost illegal and the common use of of our money a world wide obsession! How about that for not being able to make something stick?" -Trail Guide (05/12/01; 19:54:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 53492

That's the type of thing people always think (or at least say) when they institute their fiats. And especially reiterate strongly when their fiats are reaching the end of their time lines. And some are duped and many opportunists go along for the ride.

They said it of French assignats - - - up through their first nine-and-a-half years. They said it of German marks - - - until after WWI. They said it of the Brazillian currency just before the "real" and of the Ecuadorian sucre - - - until last year. They said it of the Turkish lira. Etc. They're saying it of the dollar. But if Trail Guide is correct, a similar fate awaits the dollar as well. And it's just around the corner.

end
------------------

Well, my point was that if society can institute the dollar as our trading fiat,,,, and do it for as long as they have,,,,,,,, it would be a far simpler proposition to exclude gold as collateral for credit. Did you somehow think I was promoting the above items as proof for the Euro (or dollar?)? I doubt anyone was duped by my statement, especially when read in full context as given.

you write:

--------So what's different today than ever before in history that makes some folks here so optimistic about modern fiats??? In the above contexts, why is it so hard to imagine transactional gold?
end
------------

Everything we have given demonstrated that the Euro will inflate. Only inflate less than our dollar will or has in the past. In this light we are not optimistic, rather realistic. We encourage a floating fiat, full ensconced in all it's government's credit glory. Failing as it will against itself and every other currency.

Further, we do not imagine Free Gold,,,, we embrace it now along with it's creation,,,,and the correct value this system will display for our future generations. Gold held and traded as wealth, not mired in your past credit world Western minds seek to instill.

In closing, I repost my note to Econoclast:

----------------------

Econoclast (04/24/01; 08:35:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 52451)
-----I feel discouraged right now. Not because the gold price is low, not because of what is happenning in the gold market, and by extension the financial world, but because of the fact that what I see for the future is more of the same.--------

My friend, our message and our position is that we are in one of the most exciting times of all the history of gold! We have seen that during times with the most radical transitions, the majority are usually defending the wrong asset. This unfortunate situation need not impact everyone today. If better judgment is the result of a full understanding, then some who read here will be exposed to
tools that could help them avoid the mistakes of our Western hard money majority.

For Western Gold Bugs today, their culture, their system and their recent knowledge is all ensconced within the last 30 years of paper wealth. Yet they are using a hard money defense, written by masters preceding our modern era. They struggle to use that logic out of context, as it is
thought to apply to this gold market today. These two precedents are leading them to reflect their gold values in some form other than physical ownership in possession. This mistaken detour from gold's true purpose will once again prove, by reality, the value of owning real gold.

Standing aside this group is the Physical Gold Advocate. For them, for us, these times will contain the greatest gain in real wealth ever seen. For those who are falling behind, gold is still within your grasp.
end
---------

Thank you all
TrailGuide

Gandalf the White

(05/15/2001; 11:52:57 MDT - Msg ID: 53663)

WHOA there TG !

I'm going fishing now. Both, for the real item and with one that knows the name of our recently caught prize fish. I'll make a few more comments on Centennial's forum before going. Rest up, the big walk is coming!
TrailGuide
++++
Would you leave before you post the awaited ANOTHER letter?
<;-(

Gandalf the White

(05/15/2001; 12:20:53 MDT - Msg ID: 53664)

Dow Spikes +73 points on FED announcement !

WRONG WAY !!
<;-)

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/15/2001; 12:26:05 MDT - Msg ID: 53665)

Federal Open Market Committee -- Press Release -- another 50 basis point cut

The Federal Open Market Committee at its meeting today decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 4 percent. In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 50 basis point reduction in the discount rate to 3-1/2 percent.

A significant reduction in excess inventories seems well advanced. Consumption and housing expenditures have held up reasonably well, though activity in these areas has flattened recently. Investment in capital equipment, however, has continued to decline. The erosion in current and prospective profitability, in combination with considerable uncertainty about the business outlook, seems likely to hold down capital spending going forward. This potential restraint, together with the possible effects of earlier reductions in equity wealth on consumption and the risk of slower growth abroad, continues to weigh on the economy.

With pressures on labor and product markets easing, inflation is expected to remain contained. Although measured productivity growth stalled in the first quarter, the impressive underlying rate of increase that developed in recent years appears to be largely intact, supporting longer-term prospects.

The Committee continues to believe that against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future.

In taking the discount rate action, the Federal Reserve Board approved requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Richmond, Chicago, St. Louis and San Francisco.
----------------------------

They're embarking on an easy money policy to save the banks, people. This is the economic "worst-case-scenario" for a currency -- where its value runs a grave risk of falling into the abyss as foreign holders ponder the merits of holding on to their dollar-denominated securities.

Gold is your escape hatch through which you may preserve your liquid wealth. At these near-22-year low prices it's a small exit, so act wisely and promptly to diversify your portfolio.

Sierra Madre

(05/15/2001; 12:42:57 MDT - Msg ID: 53667)

Thank you, Mr. Gresham

Thank you for your kind words on my previous post! After posting, I had second thoughts that perhaps I was spouting off valueless remarks.

I have continued reading "The Rambler" by Dr. Johnson, and have found a wealth of veritable gems of wisdom; some are relevant to the topics discussed here, though not directly, but as reflections on human nature and the problems of life.
Perhaps I shall post some (short) quotations, which I feel may delight the readers of this forum.

My thanks to USAGOLD for providing this fascinating forum, unique in world history.

ORO: You are evidently a master in your field; your latest post was over my head, I confess. You are greatly interested in analysis of statistics, of numbers. I must sadly point out that numbers are the mark of our times, as humanity descends from Quality to Quantity, a process which envelops us completely today. (What is money today, but Number bereft of Quality?) See: "The Reign of Quantity" an excellent book by Ren� Guenon. Very difficult but worth studying.

Von Mises resisted this trend, by stating that Economics is independent of experience (of numbers, magnitudes, or quantities) and that the axioms of economics derive from an "a priori" axiom, an axiom that does not depend on experience. Shall we say an "innate idea" - a concept scorned today.

As for Rand: I was infatuated with "Objectivism" forty years ago. Fortunately, I recovered. As you say, Sir, a glaring omission in Rand's works is the family. She portrays no family in her works.

She did say some truths. For instance, her sermon on money as the gauge of prevailing morality, is excellent.

Her most important error was her clear hatred for the idea of a realm of existence superior to our material existence. She was an incomplete human being, who proposed a stunted philosophy.

Thanks for reading.

Sierra

Netking

(05/15/2001; 12:56:08 MDT - Msg ID: 53668)

@goforgold / Gandalf The White

goforgold - Thanks for sharing those two posts, thought provoking yes.

Gandalf The White - A few more months or so for you to wait for the (Lord of the rings)movie. The 20 minute trailer was shown the other day at the festival and "blew the critics away", worth every cent of the huge budget all said.

R Powell

(05/15/2001; 13:00:28 MDT - Msg ID: 53669)

BOE Auction's Market Impact

This is the first time, that I remember, that lease rates rose on a BOE auction day. The one month rates were up 0.3137% today. Also as Canuck noted earlier, POG was up yesterday heading into today's auction. Today, POG was down 70 cents last time I looked.
It appears that the market has become familar or accustomed to the bi-monthly auctions and no longer reacts negatively to them. Or perhaps underlying conditions have changed so that, as Michael suggests (53650), a mere 120 tonnes per year, is percieved as a drop in the bucket. If big time short covering is necessary, then this 20 ton offering is small stuff. Didn't the auction's initial announcement seem (psychologically) to be a great hurt to POG? Now, much less?
From USAGOLD (53650), "According to the World Gold Council that amount of gold annualized (120 tonnes) is being taken up by major private investors simply to shore up their portfolios..." Actually, Michael, the misses wanted a good, solid border between the backyard lawn and her vegetable garden and I thought bricks last longer than lumber and ... any job worth doing is worth doing well and so ...
Rich

Usul

(05/15/2001; 13:05:17 MDT - Msg ID: 53670)

Haiku

http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/english/business/newsid_1332000/1332008.stmAlan Greenspan - Fed
Cut, economic weakness
Pumping bubble hard

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/15/2001; 13:16:16 MDT - Msg ID: 53671)

Europe picks up the pace ridding itself of foreign currency assets (just the dollars, maybe???)

I've just been handed the latest release of the consolidated financial statement of the Eurosystem.

This is what a quick look reveals for the changes in accounts over the previous week ended May 11.

Foreign currencies were shed to the tune of EUR 0.8 billion in value within the Eurosystem, dropping the net position to EUR 265 billion. Plenty of excess assets there still to go, folks. Will the trickle become a flood, or will the central banks refrain from adding to potential dollar instability? Whether the future dollar fall is in fits or is precipitous, you need gold.

Speaking of gold, the Eurosystem is still holding on to its gold assets, unchanged in value over the week at EUR 118.464 billion.

Topaz

(05/15/2001; 13:52:53 MDT - Msg ID: 53672)

Comment on BoE

Well, once again the Auction has managed a "return" on investment of $268ish - and yet another method of pre-A shennanigans employed to arrive at this "price" in the market....meanwhile, Lease rates etc are going ballistic and stories abound of short positions (Centaur) needing covering.
No matter what is driving the Physical market, the paper Market is "under control" and one must be tempted to have a little flutter next time around.

admin

(05/15/2001; 14:56:52 MDT - Msg ID: 53673)

Caution against long off-topic religious posts

While we respect an individual's freedom to hold various political and religious convictions, as was made apparent today, apparently we must occasionally remind our visitors that the USAGOLD Forum is not, repeat, is NOT the proper avenue for individuals to express religious views unrelated to the economics topic at hand. We are certain there are many other places on the internet that would welcome such contributions along those lines.

We have expended much effort over time to create a quality discussion forum, and remain committed to fostering an environment conducive to the free exchange of dialog on the role of gold in prudent individual portfolio diversification in addition to discussion on its role in international monetary policy. We also welcome the more light-hearted and human interest side of the satisfactions attendant with personal gold ownership.

Off-topic posts jeopardize our forum objectives of maintaining a suitable environment for GOLD and ECONOMIC discussion. It is unfortunate but necessary that an e-mail warning had to be issued to "goforgold" and that the two long posts will be deleted to preserve room for on-topic posts, to demonstrate our resolve in this matter, and most importantly, to discourage any off-topic follow-up.

We urge everyone to please respect our Forum posting guidelines and remain substantially on topic. Obviously, this normally is not a problem, and our posters remain arguable the best self-disciplined collection of forum participants on the net. This is more than anything a caution directed to our many new-comers to respect this institution and its participants by staying within the established framework while you are here. Thank you!

Let this international meeting of the minds continue...

Mr Gresham

(05/15/2001; 15:00:31 MDT - Msg ID: 53674)

Oro, Trail Guide, Ross L

ORO (05/15/01; 10:30:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 53659)

What a pleasure it would be to explore some of those theses with you; I feel left in the dust with my dusty grasp of Economics as taught 20-30 years ago, and my reading as yet of but one Rothbard book and no von Mises. As you dangle such tidbits from your solitary labors, I make faint resolutions to organize my life so I might further that study from at least the giants' kneecap levels, and reply to your ideas. With so much given me in my life, -- yes, I want it all,-- and sadly imagine I shall live with my nose always pressed up against this particular shop's window. TWT, friend.

Trail Guide (05/15/01; 11:36:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 53662)

What a dialectician! Digging and digging into that future view that is still around so many corners (I guess?) and it is the work of conveying a vision, hard up against old ways of seeing. Interesting that the practical advocacy of physical gold ownership can be made several different ways, as FOA's debaters do also, such that his vision seems to me an extra refinement I can take what time I need to "get", but that his challenge of seeing two ways at once has me trying extra hard to "wake up" and catch up. The arguments ALL sound true to me as I read them, but FOA seems to be returning nearly all of their serves, too.

RossL: Yes, I imagined that OTC contracts were the bulk of the 16kt load, but I still want to know that likely path of two events: a short squeeze, and FOA's market breakdown, as catapults for POG. These other transactions, being largely invisible, seem less likely to cause either, but instead to result in quiet "workouts" (BBs), or, in the case of mines, new owners of gold in the ground. Just probing for the weak points in OUR arguments, as well as in the opposition's position (smile).

(One of FOA's interesting Trail ideas -- twice mentioned now -- was the idea of dollar-based gold paper being transferred over to the Euro world, on some terms. That entire walk was at a level I'll need to digest more slowly and find some reference points to other things I understand somewhat better.)

I mean, a short made at 280 is different from holding a 300 put is different from selling a 320 call. The mix of these things at their differing volumes add up to particular "blow-up" scenarios, not just a "total short position", right? Real (well, "real" as unreal things like derivs can get) life flesh and blood examples would help. ("Haw! He wants to see real life derivatives! Har-de-har-har! No such animal!")

If somebody (Oro? hate to always drag you in) could just diagram the hydraulics of this for me, with some rough ballpark numbers; first, the short-squeeze scenario, then the FOA Euro/reserve currency/inflation/hyper scenario, I'd be much obliged...

(Whew! Wore myself out with that one... ;) Back to reading.)

Lafisrap

(05/15/2001; 15:27:30 MDT - Msg ID: 53675)

COMEX gold and silver warehouse stocks-May 15

http://www.futuresource.com/news/news.asp?story=i4150498563499753473
Slightly less than 1 percent of COMEX gold stock was removed today. 832,091 ounces remain.

See chart of COMEX gold warehouse stocks at:
http://www.sharelynx.net/Markets/Charts/CMX-AU-Stockpiles.htm

R Powell

(05/15/2001; 15:42:26 MDT - Msg ID: 53676)

Mr. Robert Chapman's comments

I've finished reading today's entries on both the Usagold and Gold-eagle forums and found no confirmation or denial of yesterday's "intelligence report" from Bob Chapman. This, for any who may have miss it, informed us "that Alan Greenspan has given the bullion banks until the end of May to clear up their hedging and outstanding gold derivative positions."
When someone of power or authority gives a recommendation or warning with a deadline (end of May), there is an implied "or else". Will we see the result of the "or else" next month? Will it manifest itself in the POG or in some other manner? Chapman's report also states that this process has been going on for some time. Have we been watching this as the rise in lease rates and the mining stocks? Has A.G. alone started a gold bull market or is he reacting to what had already begun? Precipitation or Damage Control?
Has anyone heard anything from Mr. Chapman? Certainly, he must be aware that what has been leaked out (intentionally or not) in his name is exceptionally huge news to the goldbugs/hard asset advocates/precious metal investors to say nothing of those who look to him for financial advice. I believe confirmation or denial of such momentus news is needful and should be forthcoming. I, for one have read his reports for a long, long time and have, as many of us have, spent many long hours for many years trying to understand the metals markets and, by proxy, the world economy and all it entails. Mr. Chapman, if you would be so kind, a response please!
Thank you, sir
Rich

Cavan Man

(05/15/2001; 15:57:10 MDT - Msg ID: 53677)

R Powell

Rich, POG is moving up now. Those that have an interest in a low POG must step aside but at the same time manage the rise. History is repeating itself once more. As the great Yogi (Berra; from "The Hill" BTW) once said, "It's deja vu all over again". Problem is for most of us we're so damn smart we'll be on board the train too late to get a good seat.

Cavan Man

(05/15/2001; 15:59:44 MDT - Msg ID: 53678)

R Powell

Any lingering doubts I've had are now gone.

CoBra(too)

(05/15/2001; 16:00:00 MDT - Msg ID: 53679)

Buck-Shot! - or the Last Mohican!

Admirably, Mr. AG used his elephant gun for the fifth time this year - alas, it was construed as a pea shooter.
As you can't kill elephantine bubbles with hurling salvos of soft green peas at the thick hide of seasoned balloons, nor penetrate the skull of new era baboons by sending a message, which in essence reeks of surrender to tender dawnings of a new era of economic reality.
As the media are starting to catch on to their spin and awaking to changing conditions, buy the dips has been the name of the game for too long and the repercussions will be felt by the omissions, of not levelling with the investors, who blindly followed their kin to the abbyss (not Chalcydyke)of portfolio blisters.
So here we are - pea-shooters are regarded as such and not more - and as some may have overstayed their welcome it may be time for the new administration to state their agenda before it's too late ... and you wipe out the rest ... of the credibility standing to test!

Best cb2

Cavan Man

(05/15/2001; 16:04:25 MDT - Msg ID: 53680)

PS: R Powell

Why is POG moving up? We've been reading it all mostly here for two plus years. Other sites have made their respective contributions also. The best strategy for gold opponents is now to go with the flow while at the same time engineer the dynamic to their liking. They'll fail (again). Best..CM

Peter Asher

(05/15/2001; 16:41:15 MDT - Msg ID: 53681)

ge (msg#: 53658)

Re "the source of the consumer credit is the rising gap between wages and productivity."

How about �The desire or need for consumer credit results from the gap---�

If this gap were the SOURCE of it, I would be interested in an elaboration of the mechanics of that phenomena

Re "Un-collateralized credit? Well, where should I apply for one?"
Uh; have you tried for a credit card?

ge, this excessive credit expansion has been issued against strong, weak and none collateral commitments. Fractional reserve banking (Partial collateral) is lamented to the heavens while simultaneously unsecured debt is rampant. Even fully collateralized debt is tenuous. Homes often lose value and margin (hah) collateral can vanish as fast as you can spell out c-r-a-s-h.

All this monetarist carrying on over the quantities of debt obscures a major underlying empirical fact. The health or sickness of the economy is determined by what the borrowed buying power is used for.

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/15/2001; 16:42:58 MDT - Msg ID: 53682)

Lafisrap, what are your COMEX thoughts on the licensed depositories?

You put this on the table for us to look at:
"Slightly less than 1 percent of COMEX gold stock was removed today. 832,091 ounces remain."

Yes, that's all well and good. But let's look at the big picture.

The licensed depositories for the Commodity Exchange, Scotiamocatta and HSBC, safeguard 832,091 ounces (almost 26 tonnes) of gold on behalf of its various owners which is specifically recognized by COMEX, Inc. as suitable "playing chips" should they choose to engage in "the game". To be sure, the "house" (COMEX) also accepts green folding cash, yet they don't keep a public record of its participants' dollar bank accounts. Perhaps they should??? Then we can all watch the available movement of the dollar funds from which primary settlement is done among the counterparties. But the gold is all we see, and as you allude to, there was an outflow of 7,330 ounces. Does the location at which this gold is being safeguarded tell you something? If might, if we discern that one location has it as leaseable deposits, whereas its new location does not.

Perhaps more significant (perhaps not) was that there was an actual and highly visible change in gold ownership via the BOE auction amounting to 644,400 oz (20 tonnes) of gold today. It occurred as easily as breathing a breath of fresh mountain air. And yet, for some reason, the COMEX licensed depositories which now hold 832,091 ounces (almost 26 tonnes) of other people's gold are closely watched by many other people like mother hens. What is expected?

When life rafts are being launched from the Titanic, shouldn't we focus on THAT event rather than studying the list of passenger bookings for future scheduled cruises? In real time, will watching these bookings tell you most expediently that the ship is now going down?

Buena Fe

(05/15/2001; 17:01:02 MDT - Msg ID: 53683)

The wallflowers

Great perspective on COMEX Randy!

Well the Fed has chosen its bedfellow.......the banks.......and past by the savers......bonds/$. I think the savers are starting to pout.........maybe they'll runaway with a more stately date! Gold.

Peter Asher

(05/15/2001; 17:03:38 MDT - Msg ID: 53684)

Best quote of the millinium

From GE -- Easy to keep on easing (Maddog)

What is keeping us out of recession is the consumer,'' said economist David Wyss of Standard & Poor's in New
York. ``There is a risk of a sudden attack of prudence.
If people stop living beyond their means, this could
turn into a recession.''

auspec

(05/15/2001; 17:08:18 MDT - Msg ID: 53685)

Galearis #53648 & ALL

Systemic Precious Metal ManagementPer your post #53648:
"Hard assets will always be in competition to fiat currencies to the greater extent and manipulation/management is a given for as long as humanly possible. Gold AND silver will be treated by the powers that be in the way that is considered to best reflect what these entities feel to be in their respective national interests. If Kodak goes under, for example, due to lack of silver there will be copious crocodile tears shed to be sure. If silver is needed CHEAPLY for strategic defense reasons and so on, the shenanigans will continue and that will be the way of it. There WILL likely be a bull of sorts, but always a managed one, one that will cause the minimum of disturbance in the national interests. I think one should realize by now that "management" of these pm markets has been acculturated and is part of society as much as pork barreling politicians." END

Much reality there. Yes, of course these markets have been and will continue to be 'managed' to whatever degree possible, you are so right! The recent management of gold from the aftermaths of the WA high of $330 back to the 250 range has been masterfully done, a textbook example. I will bet you, however, that the target was NOT $250 POG, but considerably lower. Gold is a tough one to 'manage' as it is the most independent of metals. So, if/when gold reaches $300 it will be managed at that level. Same with $400, $600, or whatever target one chooses. If the vaults become empty, however, the elitists will be OUT of the gold management business, thus they can not let that happen. Release some pressure? Certainly. Release all their metals ammo? Nope. Now they would risk burning up the $ presses from overuse.
As far as silver is concerned, they are approaching the point that they are OUT of ammo for managing POS. The amount of silver used up and gone in the last 50 years is mind boggling. Their management in 1979 to 1980 didn't quite get the silver job done, and that was with enormous above-ground stockpiles still in hand. Are they equipped for another round of the same problem magnified many times over by their short positions? Notwithstanding a big grab from mines or silver holders they will not get their silver 'CHEAPLY', strategic or not, imho. The mining establishment can ONLY replinish silver supplies at a much higher POS, and even then we will NEVER see the billions of ounces that were present during the 1950's. No higher POS, no industrial silver, sorry Kodak.
There is so much talk about whether this is all a giant 'conspiracy' or just simply Govt doing what Govt always does. Many say that GATA should drop the 'conspiracy' angle and just go for exposure of market opportunities presented by supply/demand fundamentals. I will stick with conspiracy, thank you, but it is above all extreme and historical FOLLY! Their folly will see the light of day and crumble as deserved. This is the type of 'management' that one can comfortably position against. Will they ever lose control of silver or gold entirely? Likely not, but the free markets are gaining momentum to diminish their roles SOON. The elitist's greed and arrogance is their pitfall.
Galearis, it doesn't currently look like China is going to "play along' very much. So much can go wrong when man attempts to play God. We watch and hold with glee.
Regards,
auspec

auspec

(05/15/2001; 17:47:31 MDT - Msg ID: 53686)

Gold Bailout???

From TrailGuide msg #73 "Fed-Bis-ECB-China"--
"The recent BIS meeting may have set the stage for an eventual monumental change in the way gold is traded, owned and valued. The very fact that a major portion of the US gold stock has been changed in status in a way that would allow it's movement (ownership); means that the US has now entertained the same position as England is doing regarding gold and the EMU with Europe. We (the US) are preparing for the destruction of the dollar's gold world. In this, some players will have to be saved (with real gold) if the dollar is to have any existence at all in the new Euro reserve function." END

Couple of things jump out from these puzzle pieces. Alan Greenspan JUST attended BIS meeting last weekend or so. As a BIS 'member', no less. Robert Chapman tells us AG is spearheading a gold derivative wind down. This has been underway for quite some time and bailout candidates mentioned so far are AngloGold and possibly BoE. ENTER THE CUSTODIAL GOLD, RIGHT TRAIL GUIDE??? We find out what role Barrick is playing and the BAILOUT is right in front of our eyes. Who else is involved? This is NOT a simple bailout that can be solved in just a month, or MANY months, without enormous gold reserves/resources. This 'big fish' stinks. We shall see who really gives a damn that our national treasure will be wasted on a bunch of greedy crooks. This is public money/gold going to private and stupid crooked hands. What's new??
auspec{tral thought}

Tree in the Forest

(05/15/2001; 18:14:05 MDT - Msg ID: 53687)

Comex silver

Somebody posted today about the rumor of enormous amounts of silver in the Delaware Depository. I thought someone might be interested in seeing the warehouse stocks. Here are the current silver stocks on Comex by depository:
(all numbers in oz.)

Scotiamocatta
Reg 18,169,768
Elig 9,429,821
Ttl 27,599,589

HSBC Bank USA (New York)
Reg 50,646,827
Elig 10,792,246
Ttl 61,439,073

Brinks, Inc.
Reg 464,599
Elig 607,541
Ttl 1,072,140

Delaware Depository
Reg 34,774
Elig 6,101,866
Ttl 6,136,640

Combined Ttls
Reg 69,315,968
Elig 26,931,474
Ttl 96,247,442

Black Blade

(05/15/2001; 19:14:57 MDT - Msg ID: 53688)

RE: ORO (5/15/01; 08:32:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 53647)

ORO: Any idea of how much LNG can be carried on a Refrigerated tanker and what the empty ship weighs per mil c.ft capacity? How much nickel per mil c.ft. is necessary?

Black Blade: These questions are a bit difficult as I'm sure that these LNG fleets consist of various sized ships. Kline Co. a specialty ship builder in concert with a Japanese ship builder, have built LNG tankers, and they have also built LPG tankers with a capacity of up to 79,000-cubic-meter by volume. I would suspect that LNG and LPG have similar volumes and densities. I am working off memory here, however, I think that there is about 3.5% nickel in the LNG tanker membrane. Of course nickel is a component material in the manufacture of stainless steel. I have some new info on LNG that I have to go through, however, I have to meet with a couple of colleagues and probably consume large quantities of liquids derived from barley, hops, and yeast.

Tree in the Forest

(05/15/2001; 19:16:15 MDT - Msg ID: 53689)

Comex gold

Open interest for June gold rose again today by almost 1000 contracts, now sitting at about 62.5K contracts. It fell over 8000 contracts yesterday but was up on Friday.

Tree in the Forest

(05/15/2001; 19:32:53 MDT - Msg ID: 53690)

An important date

This came from Bill Buckler via Sharefin and Old Yeller:

The Genoa ( Italy ) Summit is a Heads of State Summit and it takes place July 20-22. President Bush will be there, as will all the other relevant Heads of State. At this Summit, the issue is world MONEY...

The EU/U.S. Deal - to be consummated at the Genoa Summit - will make these two currencies co-equals. And Greenspan will act to decelerate the present accelerating U.S. Dollar credit expansion. This time ( Japan threatened to do likewise in mid 1997 ) , Japan's threat to sell $US 1 TRILLION in Treasuries has forced the U.S. towards Europe to save the Dollar.

(05/15/2001; 19:57:41 MDT - Msg ID: 53691)

AX INFLATION INDEX JUMPS TO 1600 % SQUARED

The AX INFLATION INDEX:

FEDERAL DISCOUNT RATE DROP SINCE JANUARY 01:

approx 40 %

ELECTRIC UTILITY RATE INCREASE IN CALIFORNIA TODAY:

approx 40 %

40 % X 40 % = 1600 % SQUARED

auspec

(05/15/2001; 20:04:56 MDT - Msg ID: 53692)

Belgian---- US Treasury Bonds?

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/roffey051601pv.htmlSir Belgian,
What's your current read on T-Bond weakness?

The above link is some recent TA on various gold entities by South Africa's Dr. Clive Roffey. Thanks.

Orville Goldenbacher

(05/15/2001; 20:24:42 MDT - Msg ID: 53693)

STATUS REPORT OF U.S. TREASURY OWNED GOLD

http://www.fms.treas.gov/gold/00-01.htmlHope this helps.

OG

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/15/2001; 20:37:45 MDT - Msg ID: 53694)

Cavan Man @ # 53465 and # 53677

My friend, Sir Cavan Man

Yes, a lot of good men are from MO.

You might clarify for the not St. Louisans what you meant by the great Yogi being from "The Hill". Most would have no clue as to what you meant by that.

This great communicator who said, "It's deja vu all over again", is the same man who said, "It is very difficult to forcast, especially about the future."

Very respectfully,

HBM

PS: Mail coming your way shortly

Black Blade

(05/15/2001; 21:50:33 MDT - Msg ID: 53695)

Calif. approves steep electric rate increase

http://news.excite.com/news/r/010515/19/utilities-california-rates
Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - California regulators approved Tuesday the biggest electricity rate increase in the state's history, narrowing the gap between retail rates and soaring wholesale prices amid howls from outraged consumers. The tiered price plan would hit industrial customers hardest, raising their rates 49-50 percent, while big commercial customers like malls and hotels will see their rates go up 36-41 percent. Residential customers face a punitive 12 percent to 54.5 percent rise in their monthly bills for all electricity they use in excess of an established baseline that takes into account "reasonable" power use in each of the state's many different climate zones.

Black Blade: Uh Oh! Some of the Dancing, playing and singing just stopped on a sour note! I see a spike in inflation as costs are passed on to the consumer, and a drop in consumer confidence. Cheetah (AG) has his hands full. Time to outfit a golden lifeboat.

Black Blade

(05/15/2001; 22:04:32 MDT - Msg ID: 53696)

Energy Crisis Looms in Brazil

http://www.voanews.com/article.cfm?objectID=53E81661-48D4-11D5-841900508BF9712A&Title=Energy%20Crisis%20Looms%20in%20Brazil
Snippit:

Layoff estimates range as high as 800,000 jobs being lost because of the blackouts and rationing. Inflation too may become a problem as the production of goods slows because of the power shortages.The energy crisis is a major blow to the Brazilian economy, which only in the past year began recovering from a massive currency devaluation in early 1999. Now, as the weekly newsmagazine Veja put it with perhaps some hyperbole, Brazil has a date on June 1 with chaos and faces the prospect of a social, economic and political crisis similar to a country at war.

Black Blade: Just replace Brazil and Brazilian with US and North American in the paragraph above and you see the future of the US as the energy crisis takes its toll. It was only last year that we read about Brazilian merchants buying precious metal coin - in "News and Views" perhaps?

Black Blade

(05/15/2001; 22:18:31 MDT - Msg ID: 53697)

Brazil currency drops to record low on energy cuts

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010515/n15353763.html
SAO PAULO, May 15 (Reuters) - Brazil's real currency (BRBY - news) extended its recent slide on Tuesday to close at a new record low as looming energy cuts and financial instability in Argentina dented investors' confidence, traders said. The real currency slid 1.1 percent to 2.340 reais against the dollar, compared with 2.315 reais at Monday's close, which was also a record low. Concern over the impact of at least six months of energy rationing on Brazil's economy, trade balance and inflation plagued the foreign exchange market. The energy crisis prompted the government to call off the privatization of state utility Cesp , which would have brought an influx of dollars.

Black Blade: When the USD tumbles under similar circumstances, gold should perform well as a wealth preservation vehicle - sailing through the "Perfect Storm" we now know as the energy crisis.

Black Blade

(05/15/2001; 22:34:35 MDT - Msg ID: 53698)

FED�S NOT COMING TO THE RESCUE THIS TIME

http://nypostonline.com/business/30498.htm
By JOHN CRUDELE

The government sees hardly any energy inflation this year; does that sound right? Even if the suddenly upbeat economic news seems wacky to you and me, Wall Street still trades on the information. Now I'll get to the dilemma. The Fed is getting private economic data that says the economy is headed for - or already in - a recession. So Greenspan could decide to ignore the newest government statistics and cut rates by a half-percent. But if he does that, the bond market will revolt.

Black Blade: DITTO!

jinx44

(05/15/2001; 22:37:50 MDT - Msg ID: 53699)

Where is it all going???

http://urbansurvival.com/4horse.htmThe next several years will witness a large re-evaluation of our priorities. The above link has two alternate looks at the current trouble we are getting ourselves in.

Black Blade

(05/15/2001; 23:01:57 MDT - Msg ID: 53700)

Calif. Summer Blackouts to Be Worse Than Expected

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/htx/nm/20010515/ts/utilities_summer_dc_1.html
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Electricity shortages in California this summer will be worse than state Authorities had predicted, with blackout-weary consumers facing 30 percent more outages than previously forecast, the North American power grid overseer said on Tuesday. The industry-led North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) also said New York City and New England had tight electricity supplies and could have occasional outages if equipment or power lines broke down.

Black Blade: Not news for us. Actually this article is overly optimistic. It should be worse in California, and New England is teetering on the edge. Any hot weather and any minor grid failure or power plant problem and it could get ugly. New York is quickly building Peaker plants, however, they might not be sufficient if hot weather strains the system by drawing off out-of-state and Canadian NG supply. The Pacific NW could be in trouble as hydro-power may be sufficient for minimum needs, and California had better not count on excess NW hydro-power this year. The drought means NW power for domestic use is problematic at best. Neighboring Montana and Idaho could be in the dark as well. Nevada and Arizona could be using the lion's share of the regions hydro-power (such as Hoover Dam). Even as some regions rapidly build power plants, the NG supply to fuel these plants is not being produced. The US recession is going to get "interesting."

Golden Dreams All!

SHIFTY

(05/15/2001; 23:22:59 MDT - Msg ID: 53701)

Gold chart

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.htmlIt looks like Spot is starting to get a bit frisky tonight.

Good Dog

$hifty

beesting

(05/15/2001; 23:53:35 MDT - Msg ID: 53702)

Trail Guide # 53662

Sir Trail Guide,
This snippet from todays post explains a lot to me, let me see if I understand your thoughts correctly.
[Snippet]
<our dollar will or has in the past. In this light we are not optimistic, rather realistic. We
encourage a floating fiat, full ensconced in all it's government's credit glory. Failing as it
will against itself and every other currency.>>[End of Snippet]

Comment:
To sum up sir, you and ANOTHER are predicting the life of the U.S. dollar as the worlds settlement currency's timeline is ending, currently. The Euro was and is designed as a worldwide replacement fiat(digital) currency. As the U.S. dollar loses credibility worldwide the already existing worldwide Central Banking system will start using the Euro more and more in their reserve assets, replacing U.S.dollars,currently being used as reserves.

However, before the transition is complete, physical Gold will be bought up by holders of dollars,completely drying up physical supplies of Gold worldwide and sending POG way,way up.(possibly $30,000 per ounce) This in turn would make the Euro more and more valuable as they(ECB) value their 15% (reserve)Gold holdings to market.
However, as you state above the Euro, in time, will also be replaced as its timeline runs out, as ALL fiat currencies have done throughout history in the past.

Sir, if I understand your reasoning correctly you believe a true Gold standard would benifit mankind but would not be allowed by world governments and world bankers. Hence, all mankind is doomed to use depreciating fiat currencies indefinitely.
Do I understand this correctly?

Now,it seems as Sir Journeyman has pointed out, for the first time in many, many years a competing, Mom an Pop operated, worldwide 100% Gold backed monetary system has been implemented and so far seems to be gaining in success.(Electronic-Gold)(also mostly digital)

If the U.S. dollar crashes in the near future wouldn't it seem reasonable that some of the future dollar holders rushing to convert dollars to Euros and to convert dollars to physical Gold would also discover the electronic-Gold system that Sir Journeyman has written about and start to use that system for international trade settlements between businesses, and international travelers? I think I would once I completely understood the system. Also, it's possible those using the electronic-Gold system may even decide to conduct some of their day to day local transactions in physical Gold as the system becomes more widespread and is fully understood and accepted, if local laws allow.

Your thoughts are greatly appreciated....beesting.

Old Yeller

(05/16/2001; 01:40:29 MDT - Msg ID: 53703)

Please don't sell our dollars for that horrid barbarous relic

http://www.taipeitimes.com/news/2001/05/16/story/0000085915
Can anybody else envision Ol'Greenie and Dubya Shrubster using this plan of defense.

"Look,we know we've been bad boys and engaged in a little too much easin' and printin',but we'll change our ways real soon.Trust us and our FRNs,you don't need that antiquated commodity."

Thanks to cjk at Kitco for the link.View Yesterday's Discussion.

Old Yeller

(05/16/2001; 02:40:00 MDT - Msg ID: 53704)

Fighting the Fed,a sucker's game?

http://www.prudentbear.com/international.htm
I know I've been a bit of a broken record on the Fed's antics,especially this year and may be proven wrong in the end,but this article by Marshall Auerback really hits home.

Snippet from the essay:

"the notion of investors not fighting the Fed is ultimately predicated on a idea of a responsible and neutral monetary authority,which,however many mistakes it may or may not make,does try to conduct policy in a honest matter generally perceived to be in a society's best interest,rather than a narrow coterie of speculators and investment banks."

Netking

(05/16/2001; 04:19:03 MDT - Msg ID: 53705)

Silver feature in herald-tribune - Part 1

http://www.herald-trib.com/headlinesstory2.cfm?ID=45016Good morning - In the event you missed one of the first two parts of the recent Herald-Tribune features on Silver I have posted them herewith. (Part three to be published sometime soon)

Netking

(05/16/2001; 04:20:30 MDT - Msg ID: 53706)

Silver feature in herald-tribune - Part 2

http://www.herald-trib.com/headlinesstory2.cfm?ID=45192Enjoy!

working-kirk

(05/16/2001; 04:21:42 MDT - Msg ID: 53707)

refinery explosions

http://www.maximumexp.com/About a month ago, Black Blade mentioned a refinery explosion that was sure to decrease oil supplies. I don't know if it was the refinery in question but I just finished watching a show called MAXIMUM EXPOSURE and they showed two
refinery explosions. One for gasoline products and another for rocket fuel

(The above link to the site look for awesome explosions)
I think Black Blade mentioned just how big a refinery explosion can be but describing it can't match seeing it. First the camera was a couple of miles away but that didn't seem far enough. You see the place on fire, then comes the explosion, then you see the shockwave travelling through the ground and finally you heard the earth-shattering ka-boom

hopefully you can catch the show since I couldn't find the refinery explosion on the web site

How many of you want to bet when the price of gold and silver explodes it will match the biggest explosion seen

Clint H

(05/16/2001; 04:37:38 MDT - Msg ID: 53708)

beesting ( usagold.com msg#: 53702)

)
beesting, you write;

------If the U.S. dollar crashes in the near future wouldn't it seem reasonable that some of the future dollar holders rushing to convert dollars to Euros and to convert dollars to physical Gold would also discover the electronic-Gold system that Sir Journeyman has written about and start to use that system for international trade settlements between businesses, and international travelers? I think I would once I completely understood the system. -----

If enough dollar holders try to buy into the electronic-Gold system would not that in itself push gold to high numbers as the electronic-Gold system tries to cover each new investor with 100% gold backing?

Trail Guide

(05/16/2001; 05:51:48 MDT - Msg ID: 53709)

(No Subject)

Just a note and quick comments. Last post, packing to go,,,,,,, will send in Another's (plus updates) when I return.

Beesting, your note about electronic gold is interesting. Ha! Ha!,,, It seems Americans (and most Westerners) never can quite keep their hands on physical gold. Even in the past when minted by their governments. They are always setting themselves up for some paper fraud or eventual credit saving transition that grabs their wealth with a rules change. Could be your lot in life??? With gold ownership reasoning following your paper gold route, is it no wonder the Governments and Banks, that hard money
people always blame, find it so easy to eventually "fiat" the citizens. We ask for it in our rationalizing of physical money / wealth concepts. Demanding a convienense we don't need?? Truly, in the future, why own paper gold when the real thing will do,,,, especially when a paper Euro fiat will fill most (if not all) of our daily buying,,, on credit or no???? Besides, even though we agree that official gold will never again be part of our money system, these same EuroZone officials will promote and endorse ownership of Free Gold for all. On second thought, perhaps it is only in the West that paper gold is always at risk,,,,, who knows???

Things are heating up! Expect this lease rate rise to run for a while,,,, trending higher. With the ECB rates now 1/2% above Fed rates,,,,,, the dollar transition will explode into full bloom. A few news points:

----Traders said talk the Taiwan central bank had been buying euros started the rally-------

------The well-flagged U.S. rate cut had seen the dollar notch up modest gains against the euro in Asia. But it failed to hold its advantage as talk of central bank commercial orders to buy euros --

------"The bigger issue is, we're four-and-a-half months into interest rate cuts in the States and we're still getting some powerful medicine. People are going to have to start asking, what exactly are we fighting? ----------

Off to catch the big one!
TrailGuide

FredBear

(05/16/2001; 05:57:50 MDT - Msg ID: 53710)

July Comex Gold

up $2 at $270.50 in early morning trade.

NDX100 Futures down 47 (I thought the limit was 42)

SPX futures down 13.50

Dow futures down 91

TBond futures up 13 ticks

Euro up 63 ticks.

Black Blade

(05/16/2001; 06:35:43 MDT - Msg ID: 53711)

From Rockies to Andes energy emergency spreads

http://www.individual.com/story.shtml?story=d0515134.701
Snippit:

MEXICO CITY, (Reuters) - It began with programmed blackouts in California, which are expected to plunge millions into a summer of Candlelight. Then Brazil began creeping toward a power crisis, forecast to strike in full in June with widespread outages. But what started with a spate of blackouts now appears to have all the signs of an Americas-wide plague, as an energy emergency seeps southward from the Rockies to the Andes.

Black Blade: Good read, though much covered here already. Gotta go meet clients - later.

Workingkirk - You might know that a refinery has been burning up in St. Croix, Virgin Islands for the last couple days. Venezuela just had one burning last week as well.

Usul

(05/16/2001; 06:36:02 MDT - Msg ID: 53712)

Rising personal debt poses growing threat

http://www.cnn.com/2001/US/05/15/consumer.credit/index.htmlDebt? Who cares... the Fed will save us... surely...

US_Army(RET)

(05/16/2001; 06:44:45 MDT - Msg ID: 53713)

"Auctions"...???

Confused???

Dear enlightened ones,

Please excuse my "silly" question, but am a bit confused on recent and past BOE Au "Auctions." I thought I understood what an auction was, but these events appears to be a predetermined disbursement to predetermined entities at predetermined prices.

How does the word "Auction" come into it?

How can an "Auction" be "over-subscribed"?

Why is there so much "secrecy" surrounding the whole affair?

What possible good is this charade doing anyone? ---

Am confused.

FredBear

(05/16/2001; 06:50:58 MDT - Msg ID: 53714)

AngloGold

leading the FTSE today, up 6.5%

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/16/2001; 07:09:10 MDT - Msg ID: 53715)

Trail Guide @ # 53709

quote:

"Just a note and quick comments. Last post, packing to go,,,,,,, will send in Another's (plus updates) when I return." end of quote

Am I missing something? Has FOA passed on any of Another's thoughts since Another's long absence. Someone please explain this to me.

Respectfully,

HBM

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/16/2001; 07:17:57 MDT - Msg ID: 53716)

US_Army(RET) @ # 53713

Good Sir I do not think you are confused.

War is Peace

Hate is Love

Deficits are Surpluses

Reductions are Increases

Inflation is Deflation

Recession is Growth

Respectfully,

HBM

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/16/2001; 07:39:49 MDT - Msg ID: 53717)

ORO @ # 53640 - Quoting yourself

Sir

I take it that you feel that I am not able to "APPROPRIATELY" answer you without your guidance. I would suggest that you tilt your head downward just a bit so that you can look me just right in the eye. Looking down the nose tends to distort vision.

After having read your post, I get the impression that you are back peddling, beating around the bush. Why not just at least admit that your choice of words was unfortunate and leave it at that. That would be a tacit admission of being in error and not at all out of line.

I quote you, "Overall debt to cash flow levels in the EU are far lower than they are in the US, but on the other hand, much US household debt is not intended as borrowing so much as it is a hedge against the dollar." End of quote.

I will give you a few days to retract that statement. Otherwise I will be compelled to ignore the smokescreen involved in your post # 53640 and proceed to expose the ignorance of the second half of the above post.

HBM

SHIFTY

(05/16/2001; 07:45:38 MDT - Msg ID: 53718)

Run Spot Run

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.htmlSee Spot run!

$hifty

SHIFTY

(05/16/2001; 07:49:09 MDT - Msg ID: 53719)

Fetch Spot !

http://www.allisonboats.com/SS_2000.htmlYou can do it boy!

Big Smile

$hifty

Mr Gresham

(05/16/2001; 08:10:02 MDT - Msg ID: 53720)

Shifty

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.htmlHmmmm... should we all start posting links to our "golden dreams"? Looks like a fine one to go after. I've got an old tub I haven't put in yet to see whether it even floats.

Speaking of which, I wonder when the rats will start to abandon the ship? I'll click over to the lease rates after this for my guess of the morning on that.

They shouldn't keep POG on such a tight leash -- it just exaggerates the picture of a $2 move. But then, $2 a day is $730 a year... not too shabby.

PH in LA

(05/16/2001; 08:10:36 MDT - Msg ID: 53721)

What Grasshoppers do in California

America has engaged in some finger wagging lately because California doesn't have enough electricity to meet its needs. The rest of the country (including George W. Bush's energy secretary Spencer Abraham, who wants Californians to suffer through blackouts as justification for drilling for oil in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge) seems to be just fine with letting Californians dangle in the breeze without enough power to meet their needs. They laugh at Californians' frivolity.

Well, everybody, here's how it really is: California ranks 48th in the nation in power consumed per person. California grows more than half the nation's fruit, nuts and vegetables. We're keeping them. We need something to eat when the power goes out. We grow 99 percent or more of the nation's almonds, artichokes, dates, figs, kiwifruit, olives, persimmons, pistachios, prunes, raisins and walnuts. Hope you won't miss them.

California is the nation's number one dairy state. We're keeping our dairy products. We'll need plenty of fresh ones since our refrigerators can't be relied upon. Got milk? We Californians are going to keep all our high-tech software in state. Silicon Valley is ours, after all. Without enough electricity, which you're apparently keeping for yourselves, we just plain don't have enough software to spare.

We're keeping all our airplanes. California builds a good percentage of the commercial airliners available to fly you people to where you want to go. When yours wear out, you'd better hope Boeing's Washington plant can keep you supplied. There isn't enough electricity here to allow us to export any more planes than we need ourselves. And while we're at it, we're keeping all our high-tech aerospace stuff, too, like the sophisticated weapons systems that let you sleep at night, not worried you might wake up under the rule of some foreign kook.

Oh, yeah, and if you want to make a long-distance call, remember where the satellite components and tracking systems come from. Maybe you could get back in the habit of writing letters. Want to see a blockbuster movie this weekend? Come to California. We make them here. Since we'll now have to make them with our own electricity, we're keeping them. Even if we shot them somewhere else, the labs, printing facilities, editing facilities, and sound facilities are all here.

Want some nice domestic wine? We produce over 17 million gallons per year. We'll need all it to drown our sorrows when we think about the fact that no matter how many California products we export to make the rest of America's lives better, America can't see its way clear to help us out with a little electricity. You can no longer have any of our wine. You all complain that we don't build enough power plants. Well, you don't grow enough food, write enough software, make enough movies, build enough airplanes and defense systems or make enough wine. This is your last warning, America. Lighten up before it's too late.

SHIFTY

(05/16/2001; 08:24:06 MDT - Msg ID: 53722)

Mr Gresham

Links to Golden DreamsI like that idea.
Lets see some everyone!

$hifty

PH in LA

(05/16/2001; 08:28:52 MDT - Msg ID: 53723)

Golden Dream

http://www.yachtworld.com/listing/yw_display_photo.jsp?boat_id=693984&boatname=52%27+Vagabond+&photo_name=null&photo=1May all our dreams come true!

JMB

(05/16/2001; 08:39:25 MDT - Msg ID: 53724)

BLACK BLADE

www.oiltanker.comIf you happen to have a picture of an oil tanker would you please post it. SHIFTY and PH in LA need a little guidance. TIA

SHIFTY

(05/16/2001; 08:39:46 MDT - Msg ID: 53725)

PH in LA

Links to Golden DreamsVery nice, and fuel efficient too.

$hifty

Chris Powell

(05/16/2001; 08:45:39 MDT - Msg ID: 53726)

South Africa's Parliament discusses GATA claims

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/772There's even a suggestion that the country
should join GATA's lawsuit against the
BIS, U.S. government, and bullion banks.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

USAGOLD

(05/16/2001; 08:47:48 MDT - Msg ID: 53727)

Today's Commentary & Review: Convincing Rally; Gold Blows through $270 Mark/What's Happening at N.M. Rothschild & Sons. . . . .

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html5/16/01 (www.usagold.com). . .
.Gold rallied convincingly in early New
York trading blowing through the $270
barrier and causing concern among
traders short the market. In what I
thought to be a slightly odd assessment of
this morning's market conditions and one
which perhaps reveals more than was
intended, one trader said, "There is no
panic on the gold market now, especially
after yesterday's disappointing (Bank of
England) auction. But things might
change in the second half of the day."

Panic!??!!

Apparently, there is cause for concern in
some quarters but "panic" is a fairly
strong term to be used at this juncture,
wouldn't you think? But this unexpected
and strong rally could very well be a side
bar to the Fed rate cuts that only a handful
of analysts had considered. . . . . . . .

To read the rest of today's report,
we inite you to join us at our
private access COMMENTARY &
REVIEW page. A quick, one-time
registration is required. Go to the link above. . . .

AEL

(05/16/2001; 09:11:13 MDT - Msg ID: 53728)

Guenon, etcetera

Sierra Madre (05/15/01; 12:42:57MT -- usagold.com msg#: 53667):
"I must sadly point out that numbers are the mark of our times, as
humanity descends from Quality to Quantity, a process which envelops
us completely today. (What is money today, but Number bereft of
Quality?) See: 'The Reign of Quantity' an excellent book by Ren�
Guenon. Very difficult but worth studying."

.......... yes, very difficult, and very worth studying! The
antithesis of objectivism, utilitarianism, modernism. Great
food for thought. This guy is a *true* conservative in the
most profound sense. Full title (more revealing): "The
Reign of Quantity and the Signs of the Times". I believe I
read recently that someone is working on scanning and
web-izing some of Guenon's works (ROQ will surely be among
them); do a google for the title every month or so to see.
Also, for anyone interested in this whole school (roughly,
"integral traditionalism": Guenon, Evola, Schuon, Eliade,
et al) there is a yahoo group, after Evola's name:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/evola

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/16/2001; 09:29:22 MDT - Msg ID: 53729)

While we sleep

The move in spot is meager although encouraging. When the big one arrives I expect that it will occur on the weekend while we sleep as a result of meetings behind closed doors, in smoke filled rooms. The "thunder" will be in the night. Remember the prelude of things to come, the Wasshington Agreement. The first really big spike will be like that one, on the weekend in the night, probably around midnight, Branson, Missouri time. The first spike will be somewhere between $25 and $150. It will not just be a one time event. There will be few sellers, only buyers. $1,800.00 POG within one week. No upward end in sight, unless of course martial law shuts down the earth.

Respectfully,

HBM

schippi

(05/16/2001; 09:37:24 MDT - Msg ID: 53730)

Select Gold Hourly chart

http://www.SelectSectors.com/agpm70.gif FSAGX Moving Up

(05/16/2001; 09:46:29 MDT - Msg ID: 53731)

Beesting msg#: 53702

A post with remarkable logic and clarity. I agree with your conclusions.

Concerning money and its principal functions:
a) The store of wealth function of money, we say belongs to physical gold. Agreed.
b) The question is what to use for the payment systems function. Euro Zone advocates inflatable Euro. Journeyman suggests e-gold and why not? It would dampen the trade cycle if properly operated. I do not have any knowledge of e-gold, however, even the precarious futures markets survive with daily settlement and a network of clearinghouses. Monthly or bi-monthly physical settlement between the houses, and, transparency of gold inventory and current balances may make it quite reliable.... and quote international prices in grams/ounces of gold and make payment digitally! Then convert your wealth into physical. Sounds good.

FredBear

(05/16/2001; 10:32:20 MDT - Msg ID: 53732)

PH in LA (05/16/01; 08:10:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 53721)

PH, that is a nice summary of what CA provides. I think I saw it here before.

I think the problem may be that the rest of the country pays market rates for those goods you listed.

Should energy be any different?

Although I will grant you that there really is no FREE market in the US, not with all the fed government intervention, price supports, etc.

Since the federal government supports the prices of many of the products you listed, should they turn around and squash the prices of energy that CA has to pay?

Leigh

(05/16/2001; 10:33:37 MDT - Msg ID: 53733)

PH in LA

PH, I think Peter Asher already posted that message. He didn't agree with it; he was just passing it on. Where are you going to get the water to supply your agricultural needs?

Peter Asher

(05/16/2001; 10:49:46 MDT - Msg ID: 53734)

PH in LA (05/16/01; 08:10:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 53721)

One thing left out of that isolationism doctrine was , how much electricity will you have from internal sources when you are no longer trading for what you now import

BTW, I read that item a couple of weeks ago. Did you post it before? I didn't see an author credit anywhere.

Peter Asher

(05/16/2001; 10:51:37 MDT - Msg ID: 53735)

Thanks Leigh

I knew I saw it somewhere.

beesting

(05/16/2001; 11:01:17 MDT - Msg ID: 53736)

Clint H # 53708 & Ge # 53731

Clint H,your words:

<itself push gold to high numbers as the electronic-Gold system tries to cover each new
investor with 100% gold backing?>>

beesting, Yes Clint, I agree completely and as I stated in a previous post as this system catches on the Central Banks Gold, will move into the strong hands of We the People where it was originally intended to be, here in the U.S.!!!If Central Banks continue to hoard Gold it will only drive the real price of physical Gold higher, tightening supply and demand ratios. Lets think about that a minute,,,,,Wouldn't that eventually distribute the ""Power"" back to the people as the U.S. Constitution originally intended.

Sir Ge,
I have been thinking a lot about the new electronic-Gold system, here is what I come up with:
It is a modern day modification of the old Western Union system. Western Union has centers worldwide that change paper currencies into local "Paper" money, as needed. Legal in every country in the world as far as I know. They currently use secure computer systems for transfers.
Now, the new twist is where the actual physical exchanges take place for Electronic-Gold, physical Gold is also offered, at the exchange centers. Many people, here in the U.S., upon actually seeing Gold in all it's forms may come slowly or quickly to the realization, that Gold is real money, and has been for over 6000 years, no matter what governments or bankers or spinmasters may claim, and realize the benifits of owning real physical Gold.

Lets do a simple comparison:
6000 years of history has shown us, put any fiat money in a cookie jar for 5 years or more and a Gold coin, and see which historically retains its purchasing power the best?
Thanks for Reading....beesting.

Sierra Madre

(05/16/2001; 11:24:57 MDT - Msg ID: 53737)

California Grasshopper is knocking at the Ant's door....

Post No. 53721 this morning:

The Grasshopper is knocking on the Ant's door, the Ant comes to the door, and the Grasshopper says:

"Help us out with a little electricity". In other words, "Buddy, can you spare a dime?"

So the Ant answers,

"Grasshopper, I paid you for all the music you made, while you 'sang, and danced and played all summer'. I even paid you more for your fruit and vegetables, than I would have paid if I had bought from your Mexican neighbors, whose produce we excluded from our markets for your benefit. You have been paid in full for everything you sold me.

"So now you come around and want to mooch off of me? Come down to reality, Grasshopper."

Sierra

jayzee

(05/16/2001; 12:02:01 MDT - Msg ID: 53738)

To- PH in LA

Your message is true, but I saw no admission that it is California's own fault for going along with leftist and "greenie" ideas and not building new generators and refineries.

When you admit who is at fault, you might get more compassion from people like me.

JMB

(05/16/2001; 12:14:47 MDT - Msg ID: 53739)

Congratulations to Doug Casey

Find the Daily Reckoning yourself...I refuse to post this one.In today's Daily Reckoning an article by Doug Casey entitled, "An Unlikely Conspiracy, An Entirely Likely Swindle", has qualified him for The GOLDEN RASPBERY Award for cynical and shallow thinking.

I will put this guy's article up against the worst that any of you ladies and gentlemen can reference. Not only does his thinking stink, he has the worst timing I've ever seen since Irving Fisher.

(05/16/2001; 12:51:56 MDT - Msg ID: 53740)

HBM @ # 53715 - ANOTHER

Sir HBM, you can find the postings here:

ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) (04/14/01; 18:08:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 51887
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) (04/15/01; 18:58:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 51943)
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) (04/18/01; 06:19:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 52086)
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) (04/18/01; 06:41:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 52088)

Netking

(05/16/2001; 13:00:53 MDT - Msg ID: 53741)

@US_Army(RET)

(53713)
Sir, You are right on to it...
In a "truly free market", you have full disclosure and willing buyers and willing sellers. In property, if one wants to market their property as a "distressed & urgent sale" & then restrict & control the sales process itself, well... regards Netking

Belgian

(05/16/2001; 13:35:16 MDT - Msg ID: 53742)

@ Au(in-vest)spec(tor)

- USTB-30 : 5,85% = pivot-zone : technical analysis, suggests some filling and backing, before deciding to choose direction, up or down. This picture might give us some clue as if the Kondratieff-Winter will bring strong and speedy depreciation (infla) or weak and slow depreciation (defla). It is in this K-winter, decorum, that I consider the fundamental meaning of the USTBy30. 6,4%-6,5%, remains the Make or Brake (MOB), for the trend. A dollar-drama with hyperinflala.??
For the time being, Wim and Allen, decided to play the currency fiddle together in (IR)unisono. Probably with some adjustments on the Genoa summit 22 june. Watch the Swiss Franc : a marvellous long term inverse SHS ('00/'00/'01) (shoulder/head/shoulder) bottom. The Euro doen't want to fly it alone and is still flirting with the US$. Gold (POG) is playing a role in here with the EMU's permission.
Conclusion : currencies/interest rates/minevaluations and POG, are all getting ready for the benji-jump. That's how I feel it. FWIW !

Clive Roffey : his TA is part of the bigger picture. POG, breaking 275$ is a short term MOB. Since POG is strenghtening, together with the dollar...we have indication of gold-buying. I would like to see some confirmation with decisive break of 275$ and run up to resistance of 350$-zone.

Your "man attemps to play God" and Gold Bailout, comments were my cup of tea (again). Allow me to add some intuitive reflexions on...Chapman...GATA...conspiracy...market opportunities...miningweb...WGC and studies:

About Anglogold : the mine giant, its core shareholders and the people and the connections upwards, form a very strong community with particular characteristics. Anglo has and still is "dominating", South Africa in various aspects.
GATA was disturbing in Durban and is becoming a constant pain...
Major mine valuations are already diverging positively with POG. As Van Eck states rightly: the mine valuations are out of proportion (premium valuations) with the nominal price level of gold. This could be explained by the low value of Rand/Aus$/Can$ (miningcosts) against the dollar (miningincome). IMO, there is some other reason. Big insider shareholders must know that POG is managed and has floors/ceilings and price-targets ? The did not play the same market-games as they did before, when the gold-price behaved more natural.
For these insiders (strong community) it is gold-management and not a conspiracy. All the reactions on GATA, that are released by their intermediares aren't making much (cohesive) sense. The holders of underground gold are not in a defensive status. The fact that the goldproducers don't want to promote gold as an investment or wealth storage is so contradictionnal to me that I suspect them to know some "Trail" science (art) ? The biggest holders of future gold (underground) refuse any dialoque with gold advocates on fundamentals. Goldshares must remain call options on the yellow commodity used for jewelry. An explicit minimilisation of the precious metal.

Will never know if this assumption is right or wrong. Golden market opportunities are never announced with big bells. Otherwise, they would never materialize.

UK wants to lift sanctions on Irak ! Strange that another oilproducer (UK), wants so suddenly, a risk of declining POO ? And co-incidently a declining US-infla, results in a POG increase (272,2$). The flow of oil and gold...?

Sir Auspec, are you ready to join as lilliputians to join the giants ? Are it the Goldinside movers who are signaling the broader investment community ? European physical goldinvestors are already sitting on a 35% plus valuation of their metallic selfdefense. Dollar holders have some more time left to catch up. Buy it and keep it !

aunuggets

(05/16/2001; 13:42:45 MDT - Msg ID: 53743)

Doug Casey's latest......

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/775After reading Doug Casey's latest drivel concerning his "thoughts" on the GATA suit, I was reminded of the old adage.......

........"If you don't have anything constructive or helpful to say, just keep your mouth shut".

While one might agree that "most" conspiracy theories are hogwash, that doesn't necessarily mean they ALL are. Even the broken clock is right once in awhile.

But Casey came across as hell-bent on fluffing his own feathers and ego rather than saying anything worthwhile.

Anyone interested in a pile of books...... CHEAP ?

R Powell

(05/16/2001; 14:21:43 MDT - Msg ID: 53744)

Two fer day

After checking the POG (+4.30) and the XAU (up over three points!), I thought for sure the lease rates link would confirm a tremendous hat trick day but alas, lease rates were a bit lower today. Two out of three.
With the Libor rates lower, the lease rates can not exceed 4% by very much unless the goldforward rates move into backwardation. Perhaps the lease rates should be viewed with the goldcarry trade in mind. From this perspective, are the rates are high enough to shut down this unwanted extra market supply? I would guess so.
Page one article today in the WSJ about mining operations in Indonesia and mining squatters grabbing what they can effectively shutting down company mining operations.
Note to silverbugs, POS was up 14 cents at the 3:00 CNBC television report. Netking- thanks for the links!
Rich

R Powell

(05/16/2001; 14:32:14 MDT - Msg ID: 53745)

US_Army(RET)

BOE Auctions The BOE auctions are confusing in that only invited bidders may attend and the final price for ALL accepted bids is the lowest accepted bid. Randy gave us a very good explanation of this process a few months ago and may be able to furnish the date or post number for archive reference. Ask him if you want it, he usually checks in about this time of day. He suffers from the common affliction of having to work for a living but, I sense, enjoys his job.
Rich

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/16/2001; 14:55:26 MDT - Msg ID: 53746)

Fed adds $10.95 billion to boost banking reserves...lower fed funds rate

Though the fed funds market was trading just a whisper (4.06%) above the new target rate, today's open market operations was surely more than fine tuning for that...it was an injection of reserves intent upon boosting the money supply. This has been going on for many months and is surely explainable as the Fed endeavors to save the banks in this post-bubble environment.

Many months ago I talked about an "invisible crash" being possible for the DOW as the index numbers might not plummet because the dollar used as the "measuring unit" would be getting smaller, even though they are still called dollars.

Sorta like this: we have seen others report here how some stores and manufacturers are fighting higher prices (smaller dollars) by reducing the size of the packaging so that the highly visible price remains the same or increases more slowly on the item, even though the item is worth less than it was before. You ask, "Huh?" OK, which of these items is worth more... the original 16 oz bag of corn chips, or a new 14 oz bag of corn chips? Even though the price is the same, the new (smaller) item is worth LESS than "yesterday's" item.

This is what I was driving at when I suggested that an alert observer could see the value of the DOW declining into the future even though its price stayed the same or even rose as it is doing today. Depreciated dollars are hiding the fact that the value of the item is not as it once was.

Now consider this. The banking system doesn't generally survive based on its ability to retain VALUE in its vault over time. No. Theirs is simply a number-balancing game. The banking system survives so long as the numbers lent to the borrowers are eventually repaid, regardless of how big or small the numbers are at the time. And the real trick for the bank is to keep an adequate reserve of numbers "on hand" or flowing back in via performing loand (repayments) so as to balance the books. Again, to the banking system, the size (value) of the numbers (dollars) is not of primary importance. Liquidity is.

And the Fed is liquidating (monetizing) various assets as needed almost every day to keep these dollar numbers in motion within the economy. This is no where close to being over. If you want to preserve value, you must spend your dollars on tangible goods (food, clothing, etc.). And if you need compact, highly-liquid tangible goods suitable for long-term wealth preservation, then you have come to the right place. Gold is what you need.

The Fed today added $4.95 billion to banking reserves via 8-day repurchase agreements, and rounded out the day's open market operations with an additional $6.0 billion injuection to banking reserves via overnight repurchase agreements.

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/16/2001; 15:07:32 MDT - Msg ID: 53747)

R Powell and US Army (RET)

Hey there, Rich

I was hoping someone else may have kept track of my old post. I used to copy some of the more timeless ones into a personal file for later use, much like tools in a toolbox. However, my toolbox grew so large, using it to find something was almost as daunting as using the archives, so I stopped setting aside posts such as the one you are referring to.

I've made nice progress over the past several days on several off-forum projects. Perhaps I can now indulge myself with some quality catch-up time and engage in some give-and-take with the fine posters here at the forum. Give me a chance to read what I've missed, and I'll respond as appropriate. (I think I have a backlog of reading stretching back to early May!)

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/16/2001; 15:23:34 MDT - Msg ID: 53748)

The Invisible Crash revisited

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/TurkFedReserve.htmlIt wasn't long after those "invisible crash" comments of mine last Autumn that James Turk offered us yet an additional perspective on the matter, to be found at our Gilded Opinion pages.

Here is a small excerpt:

"The Fed did not react correctly to the 1929 crash, and the subsequent contraction of the money supply overvalued the Dollar/Gold link and put the economy into the Great Depression. The Fed did not react correctly in the 1960's. It allowed the Dollar to be debased until this horrific debasement ultimately destroyed what remained of the classical Gold Standard. Nor did the Fed react correctly in the 1970's, as it allowed a far too easy monetary policy that inflated away much of the Dollar's purchasing power.
+
"The Fed does have some successes. They guessed correctly after the 1987 crash. But will they guess correctly next time? Even if they do, can they forever hold back an onslaught of Dollar selling?
+
"The Fed's powers are not unlimited. The Fed cannot force people to hold Dollars if people want to dump those Dollars, which I believe they (mainly foreign holders) will do in mass as the Dollar bubble pops. Those Dollars will be spent everywhere imaginable because popping the Dollar bubble will cause a flight from currency, just like occurred in Weimar Germany.
+
"Inevitably much of that money will end up in the stock market on the premise that good stocks will always represent a refuge from bad money. So the Dow Industrials will rise in nominal Dollar terms, but not in purchasing power terms, continuing the trend that began in July 1999, as shown on the above chart...."
-----------

(Click the link above to read more)

PH in LA

(05/16/2001; 15:47:44 MDT - Msg ID: 53749)

Power deregulation in CA

"I think the problem may be that the rest of the country pays market rates for those goods you listed."

Sure they do. And they'll pay market rates for goods that will be costing lots more to produce when the "market rates" they want to charge for electricty begin to be factored into the market rates for all those produced goods, too. The thinking of those proud to call themselves ants should be re-examined. It's not us against them. All kinds of insects are in this together.

"When you admit who is at fault, you might get more compassion from people like me."

Just what's needed! Compassion from people like you! That ought to go a long way towards solving all problems. Actually, for those who not obsessed by "fault", why not charactarize de-regulation in the power industry as something that seemed like a good idea at the time? Now it seems like it didn't work quite as well as expected. And leave it at that.

Otherwise you might be expected to explain where all the loudmouths like Sierre Madre, Black Blade, Leigh, Asher, FredBear and all the rest of them were back when de-regulation was being adopted. Leigh keeps such close track of what has and what has not been posted before. Perhaps she can direct our attention to all the posts denouncing de-regulation back then. Hint: Seems to me that the whole concept was born and raised by Republicans during the Reagan years... Maybe that's why it seems like such a personal issue now.

auspec

(05/16/2001; 15:48:30 MDT - Msg ID: 53750)

aunuggets

CaseyPer your post:
"But Casey came across as hell-bent on fluffing his own feathers and ego rather than saying anything worthwhile.
post."
You apparently are an aquaintance of Sir Doug.

megatron

(05/16/2001; 16:40:34 MDT - Msg ID: 53751)

Best Swindle yet!

Why would 'investors' be ho-hum after a .50 rate cut all day yesterday and then balls to the wall today I ask myself.
The reason is clear: yesterday was a head fake to market short-sellers. The delayed reaction was engineered to pull in a lot of index shorts and today they were slaughtered.
Simple message; Don't mess with the 'Fed'. and thier relatives on Wall St.

aunuggets

(05/16/2001; 16:43:16 MDT - Msg ID: 53752)

auspec

CaseyOkay.... I probably deserved that. (grin)

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(05/16/2001; 17:07:47 MDT - Msg ID: 53753)

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megatron

(05/16/2001; 17:12:33 MDT - Msg ID: 53754)

Doug Casey

Casey doesn't think any gov't officials or central bankers have even close to enough intelligence to run a scam like this, which I would tend to agree with 99 times out of a 100. BUT! We will see, THIS TIME!
I look at it like a penny mining/drill play. If they win, we all get rich. If not what the heck, I can wait till Greenscum pulls the trigger with his toe. Wait for it!

ORO

(05/16/2001; 17:15:40 MDT - Msg ID: 53755)

HBM - wrong choice of words

I did not intend to imply that you needed my assistance in making your own point. I am sorry to have expressed myself in such a manner. Good thing you are no shrinking violet.

I did intend to indicate that you can not criticize my reasoning for the contention I put forward because I did not present it till then. Which is why I wrote the post.

As for back-pedaling, I have always said that people hedge against their currency exposure one way or another. On occasion, it may become a crowded trade. Anyone in the antique market can tell you that had been the case, as can many a middle class household full of antiques purchased on credit as a hedge against price inflation. I should indicate too, that Mises had pointed out that the oddest thing about an inflationary breakout is the absence of purchasing power in cash balances. The money and money equivalents created long ago are dumped by their holders en-masse. People simply have no money in hand, on account, in short term bonds, etc..

If the cash balances and market value of fixed income securities before a price inflation breakout is M1, and the general price level is P1, then during an inflationary breakout, where M2 is the cash and substitutes balance, and P2 is the general price level, then

P1*M1 = purchasing power outstanding in defined monetary assets, before the breakout,

P2*M2, after the breakout,

P1*M1 > P2*M2

If at that point, the central bank manages to reduce bank reserves and use an extremely high interest rate to pull money out of the system, then floating rate debtors would have to liquidate inventories and sell assets in order to maintain positive cash flow and repay debt. Alternately, they would go bankrupt and the liquidators would do the same. The forced supply of goods and assets to the market would slow or halt the inflationary process, as this crowded trade unwinds. Is it possible to get back from P2 to P1? I have never seen that done successfully. Without going into a detailed reasoning process, the inflationary result on purchasing power should be impossible to undo because in order to do so all contracts into which the effect of the price changes were incorporated (not some of the contracts, including debt, or even most) would have to be undone by force of monetary contraction, and along the way the business transaction settlement system would disappear, as would the whole of banking. Debt trap mechanics can be practiced on external populations, but within the country it is far too damaging to be an option. This is, by the way, what was done to the commodity producing nations and companies in the 70s (the borrowing) and then the springing of the trap (1980) and the slow sucking of their products at steady to lower prices.

See
http://www.mises.org/manipulation/section1.asp#p9
On the Manipulation of Money and Credit

auspec

(05/16/2001; 17:52:10 MDT - Msg ID: 53756)

ORO

Credit Creation GoldORO, maybe you could answer a question for us along another line of thought, in between dodging bullets?
Am going to quote Christian from #51771: "Gold is now used like many other commodities to monetize debt, for central banks are expanding the fiat money supply by issuing credit through the act of lending. Every 11 days the entire above ground gold supply changes hands for credit creation. This credit creation gold entitles the holder to create $2600 worth of credit per ounce of gold. The concept of the money multiplier which in its basic form is simply the reciprocal of the required reserve ratio is what determines the price of the credit creation gold.--Commodity money is used for trade defecit settlement between countries which are mostly settled at BIS for the present price of $520 based on Gold Commodity price X 2." END

I may be mistaken, but seem to remember your mentioning similar credit creation uses of gold? At least gold use in 'parallel markets'. None of us have been able to get Christian to expound on his thoughts very successfully, so can you shed some light on credit-creation gold?? Mechanism?
Part of why I ask goes to MOTIVE for CBs various uses of their gold. Precisely, why would they lend it at such a paltry rate of return as 1%, unless it is designed for POG 'management'? To me that is obviously what they are doing, as who would risk their only real money for such a small return? Especially IF they COULD use it to much greater returns as credit creation? The logical answer in the upside down fiat world of finance is that they probably do lend it for 1%, keep it on the books, and STILL use it for credit creation.
It would be nice to see a 'flow chart' of the various possible uses of an ounce of CB gold, no? And its possible multiplier effect.
While I'm at it, might as well ask your opinion {knowledge} of the meaning of the Delaware 'Custodial Gold'? Some say belongs to German parties now, others say could be gold 'bailout' material. What's your read??
Thanks,
auspec

Leigh

(05/16/2001; 17:53:49 MDT - Msg ID: 53757)

PH in LA

Gee, PH...um, um...I don't think this Forum was in existence during the Reagan years. So I can't research the postings here during that time period.

Sorry, PH.

Al Fulchino

(05/16/2001; 18:09:48 MDT - Msg ID: 53758)

Trail Guide

Trail Guide, I am unconvinced I will get a reply to this, but will throw this out here for the forum's eyes just the same. There is a theme that runs through some of your comments from time to time and I wish to make note of it. In the following, a segment of your recent post, you mention us westerners again:
you-
"Beesting, your note about electronic gold is interesting. Ha! Ha!,,, It seems Americans (and most Westerners) never can quite keep their hands on physical gold. Even in the past when minted by their governments. They are always setting themselves up for some paper fraud or eventual credit saving transition that grabs their wealth with a rules change. Could be your lot in life??? "

me again: There is in my mind this anti Western theme that you have and I am at a loss to understand why. If I am incorrect, please straighten me out. Where on this earth do you find any other countries that have fared better? It seems that history tells us that while we Westerners have and are repeating their mistakes, there are no Easterners, Northerners or Southerners, to use your lingo, that have done any better. Yet all I ever hear is the notion about us Westerners not being able to keep our hands on gold.

Usually when people are categorized, pro or con, in such a way as to compare them to another, there is a visible difference. Thus, show me/us who is smarter and wiser at keeping their hands on gold for long periods. Other than ritualistic countries such as India, there are none. In fact, you cannot even count a ritualistic people, because we Westerner's, as bad as we are, still own a good amount of gold.

IMPORTANT!
Hopefully, other readers here also see that we Westerner's once again do not have to be made to feel inferior.

TheStranger

(05/16/2001; 18:11:01 MDT - Msg ID: 53759)

PH in LA

PH - My friend, the relative standards of living among nations exist in close proportion to how free their respective markets are. Yet, no matter how often free markets succeed (or collectivism fails), there are always some willing to challenge the obvious.

How do you think it effects the rest of us when the "Democratic Republic" of California sends socialist nitwits like Barbara Boxer to do America's governance? Do you realize the price we all pay for such stupidity? And, while we're at it, do you even understand the connection between California's problems and her politics?

I don't mean to hurt your feelings, PH, but California doesn't need sympathy. What it needs is to get it's collective head out of the clouds and start rediscovering the benefits of capitalism.

Peter Asher

(05/16/2001; 18:31:53 MDT - Msg ID: 53760)

PH in LA (msg#: 53749) Logic deregulation in CA

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/2920014/default.html
Thank for the compliment. I am sure that as a group we, Sierre Madre, Black Blade, Leigh, Asher, FredBear are elated to know that our messages are being received load and clear. If, you as a Californian had "loudly mouthed off" when deregulation was put in, we would have then KNOWN about it and perhaps had some comment.

Perhaps you could now comment on what I DID report when I heard about it.

From -- Interview with a Grasshopper --Peter Asher (04/29/01; 15:06:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 52822)

>>>Breakup: When the legislature and the governor deregulated PG&E, PG&E set up two separate companies, with the larger corporation as the parent entity, and the smaller as the utility that provides the service to the state. In doing so, they shifted its wealth to the parent corporation and allowed the parent corporation to go out of state and buy power-generating utilities all over the country.

By shifting 80% of the wealth to the parent corp., the utility was left with the responsibility of power transmission and the maintenance of the power facilities after being gutted and left as an empty shell.<<<<

auspec

(05/16/2001; 18:56:50 MDT - Msg ID: 53761)

aunuggets

Casey"But Casey came across as hell-bent on fluffing his own feathers and ego rather than saying anything worthwhile."

Me: "You apparently are an aquaintance of Sir Doug."

Wanted to make sure I'm clear on this, meaning that you have him nailed to a tee {must know him}. I've gotta make sure the insults reach the laser-target only, no collateral damage!

Black Blade

(05/16/2001; 19:28:39 MDT - Msg ID: 53762)

RE: PH in LA - What Deregulation?

"...and they danced, sang, and played all summer...until the lights went out...then they rioted, burned, and looted..."
Did California deregulate? As I see it they only monkeyed around with the rules in an effort to engineer the utility markets and it backfired - badly. The PUC and the state legislature thought that they could have their cake and eat it too. Unfortunately these leftist extremists never learned that there is no "free lunch." Truly free markets are quite efficient as we see in Pennsylvania where utility deregulation has led to stable supply and stable pricing with a vigorous and competitive market. Unfortunately the leading politicians in the state of California knew that this day was coming (yes they included Boxcar Barbara, Pistol Pete Wilson, Diane Fine-Swine, The Duke Mejian, the late Bonehead - er Bono, Jerry Moonbeam, and many others). Where were these "enlightened" voices? Some urged conservation and yet here we are with serious utility problems on the left coast with rolling blackouts like any other Third World country. There have been no new electrical generating facilities built in the last 12 years, no new petroleum exploration and development, no significant upgrade to the decaying electrical grid, No new or expansion of transmission lines, etc. Energy demand grew along with the population and California's "New Economy" expanded quickly - an extremely energy intensive economy no less. So did the state prepare for these growing pains? Of course not. They simply buried their heads in the sand so to speak. They expected the rest of the western grid to serve as California's "energy farm" at the same time condemning the people in the rest of the region as being environmentally unfriendly earth rapists. Funny how they have no qualms about consuming that same energy and expecting to receive it for a pittance.

All that I can say is - "Welcome to the real world." Cheers!

- Black Blade

escapethematrix

(05/16/2001; 19:55:21 MDT - Msg ID: 53763)

Al Fulchino ...Re: TrailGuide.....

I believe you do indeed misunderstand the point and context of FOA's allusions to "Westerners". He speaks more of a "Western mindset".....I.E., our attitudes and the way that we see and interperet events, whether it be in regard to people, markets, or politics. I do believe that FOA has indicated that he, himself, is one of "us", AL , a "Westerner" if you will. Having read and analyzed all of FOA's and Another's posts, I really don't understand how, if you have read them, you would get that perception, unless you didn't understand the context in which the statements were made.You shouldn't feel slighted at all, or allow yourself to develop ridiculous nationalistic tunnel-vision, which can only serve to limit your perceptions. The US Government,IMF, and the parasitical Fed are, in all reality, the biggest vampires this world has ever seen. It makes me laugh when I read tirades about those terrible "socialist bureaucrats in Europe" , as if our esteemed "elected officials" were any better.

Trailguide: Best of luck on your fishing trip, hope you catch that "big one". Thanks for all you do.

aunuggets

(05/16/2001; 19:57:01 MDT - Msg ID: 53764)

auspec

CaseySometimes that "laser-targeting" isn't all it's cracked up to be ! (big smile)

No offense taken, I assure you. And you may be more accurate with your suspicions than you realize......

Just read Bill Murphy's latest from the Cafe. Now THAT is something worth a few minutes digesting.

Regards

Black Blade

(05/16/2001; 20:00:42 MDT - Msg ID: 53765)

As per JMB request

http://www.maritimeusa.com/photos/shipsail.gifMy boat's bigger - it's the one on the right! Sorry PH, I just couldn't pass this up. Cheers! ;-)

Elwood

(05/16/2001; 20:10:51 MDT - Msg ID: 53766)

How many California legislators does it take to change a light bulb?

(smile)

Peter Asher

(05/16/2001; 20:16:57 MDT - Msg ID: 53767)

Elwood

What ever number is required for a quorum to vote on which way to turn it.

Black Blade

(05/16/2001; 20:24:59 MDT - Msg ID: 53768)

California crisis adds uncertainty to summer natural gas prices

http://pe.pennwellnet.com/Articles/print_screen.cfm?PUBLICATION_ID=6&ARTICLE_ID=101086
Snippits:

Energy Security Analysis Inc., Wakefield, Mass, says a hotter than normal summer could mean prices will jump to $8-$9/Mcf range. But a normal summer will keep prices in the $5-$6 range, says Mary Menino, manager of North American natural gas for ESAI. It is predicting a normal summer. But all bets of moderation are off when it comes to gas prices in California. "California will be a debacle again," says Adkins. "Hydro is not available and gas will be feeling the strain to produce power. There will be a shortage situation for both gas and power without incentives to conserve." At the root of California's gas travail is the shortage of intrastate pipeline capacity, limiting the ability to distribute the gas that interstate lines bring to the state. "California prices will remain above the other areas. [Pipeline] expansions are not expected yet and we don't see a reduction in bottlenecks," Menino says. heir units running as ordered by FERC, says Menino.

"It's downright ugly in California and gas is part of the problem," says Gordon Allott, vice-president, business development, with KWI North America, risk management consultants in San Francisco. "All the power plants will be turning hard this summer. That will strain what is already a limited gas capacity." EIA predicted the California spot natural gas prices will exhibit "significant volatility" relative to the rest of the country. California spot prices averaged about $13.30/Mcf in April, 2.5 times average prices in the rest of the country. Prices are 50% higher in southern part of the state than in the north, according to EIA. Without new pipeline capacity in the ground, ICF's Rose doesn't foresee much improvement in California either. But prices could moderate, he says. Prices may come down to about $10/Mcf from the $14 experienced in the first 4 months of the year.

Black Blade: Good report from oil and gas online. One should read the whole report to get a good feel for the coming potential disaster. NG prices in California will be going higher regardless. Some complain that George Dubya is passing up the state to fend for itself, and why not? He won't get their vote no matter what. Bubba Clinton did the same to punish the other western states for voting him into third place behind Ross Perot. So he confiscated places such as desolate southern Utah desert for a national park (Escalante Staircase NP) even though there were petroleum and coal interests working the area. What goes around - comes around? A hot summer will create an economic disaster, not only in California, but the shock waves will ripple through the fabric of the whole US economy. California isn't alone, they're just the first. What the hell, they always did pride themselves as being trend-setters.

aunuggets

(05/16/2001; 20:25:00 MDT - Msg ID: 53769)

Elwood

How many California Legislators does it take to change a light bulb ?

First order of business is finding one intelligent enough to turn on the switch and understand why it needs changing.

Then again......... (snicker)

SHIFTY

(05/16/2001; 20:28:01 MDT - Msg ID: 53770)

Black Blade

Your TankerShe's empty.
:-)
$hifty

Black Blade

(05/16/2001; 20:33:16 MDT - Msg ID: 53771)

Gold Rising Again Tonight!

http://www.kitco.com/market/Gold bounced nicely +$4.30 today, well tonight gold is adding another 90 cents so far.

SHIFTY - Yes, I noticed that. She's riding a little high. But I wanted to get a picture of a tanker and a sailboat.

Black Blade

(05/16/2001; 20:48:46 MDT - Msg ID: 53772)

California Energy Regulation

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/sennholz051801.htmlGood article on how California blew it - in a nutshell so to speak.

SHIFTY

(05/16/2001; 21:03:33 MDT - Msg ID: 53773)

Black Blade

The sail boatI didn't even see it when I looked at the photo the first time.

:-)
$hifty

aunuggets

(05/16/2001; 21:04:35 MDT - Msg ID: 53774)

??????????

http://www.onefn.net/ft/worldly.php
Isn't this one of the guys caught awhile back praising himself for his brilliant stock forcasting after picking so many "winners" after the fact ?

I think the first line of his article pretty much explains the rest of it.........

Clueless indeed !

Canuck

(05/16/2001; 21:07:57 MDT - Msg ID: 53775)

Long bond

Brilliant performance again today.

Is the bond world still in turmoil?

Canuck.

Black Blade

(05/16/2001; 21:38:43 MDT - Msg ID: 53776)

Bush to Warn of Energy Crisis

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20010516/pl/bush_energy_11.html
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (AP) - President Bush, in his much-awaited energy plan, will warn on Thursday that the United States faces ``the most serious energy shortage since the oil embargo of the 1970s.'' He will order federal agencies to dismantle regulatory barriers that slow gas, electrical, coal and nuclear power production and propose opening federal lands for oil drilling.

``A fundamental imbalance between supply and demand defines our nation's energy crisis,'' says the report, a portion of which was released Wednesday night by the White House. ``This imbalance, if allowed to continue, will inevitably undermine our economy, our standard of living, and our national security.''

Black Blade: The last few energy crises have preceded serious recessions. This one is likely to be more serious as the last few have been merely petroleum fuels. This energy crisis is much more serious. Gold will do well as usual during times of economic uncertainty.

Turnaround

(05/16/2001; 21:43:45 MDT - Msg ID: 53777)

HBM, outer limits of monetarism

Hill Billy Mitchell (05/14/01; 10:34:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 53570)
Turnaround @ # 53554

"Sometimes we on this forum, due to time constraints, fire from the hip rather than taking some time to zero in on our target. I fear that that is exactly what I have done by offering my remarks concerning ORO's statement about U.S. households hedging against the dollar. You have come to his defense."

No offense (well, maybe I was a little hard on John Q. back there) or defense of anyone's thoughts was intended.

"On another subject: have you noticed that POG has held up rather well in the face of this strong advance in the USD Index, since the surprise rate cut by AG in mid-April. Maybe I am reading this wrong but it sure seems like a strong signal for the direction of POG. Na, when the dollar begins to tank POG will probably tank with it. The simple fact that nothing seems to make sense in market relationships should give us heart. Trying to defy the laws of gravity does not bode well for those who try it. "

I'm not the peasant to ask, Sir HBM. The rise in the dollar index year to date truly is an amazing thing to witness in the face of the historic rapid-fire rate cuts and exploding [M3+cumulative current accounts deficit]. Maybe there is an external flight to the dollar? We may see many more strange and unusual sights before the day is done. We'll probably see Dow 36,000 after all, even sooner than the author of the book anticipated. Perhaps GPOD (gold price of $number) will make a Pluto swingby on its way to the center of the Earth.

Bulletin from the Federal Reserve System, Inc.:

There is nothing wrong with your television set.
Do not attempt to adjust the picture.
We control the interest rates.
We control the reserve requirements.
We can soften the definition of money to a blur,
Or expand it to include resecuritized Peruvian bat guano puts.
But we cannot change the channel.

aunuggets

(05/16/2001; 21:55:26 MDT - Msg ID: 53778)

A Few Golden Thoughts

I Am Your Worst Nightmare. I am a BAD American.
I am George Carlin.

I believe the money I make belongs to me and my family, not some
midlevel governmental functionary with a bad comb-over who wants to give it away to crack addicts squirting out babies.

I'm not in touch with my feelings and I like it that way, d@mn it!

I believe no one ever died because of something Ozzy Osbourne, Ice-T or Marilyn Manson sang.

I think owning a gun doesn't make you a killer.

I believe it's called the Boy Scouts for a reason.

I don't think being a minority makes you noble or victimized.

I believe that if you are selling me a Big Mac, you'd better do it in English.

I don't use the excuse "it's for the children" as a shield for unpopular opinions or actions.

I think fireworks should be legal on the 4th of July.

I think that being a student doesn't give you any more enlightenment than working at Blockbuster. In fact, if your parents are footing the bill to put your pansy a$$ through 4-7 years of college, you haven't begun to be enlightened.

I believe everyone has a right to pray to his or her God.

Hillary Clinton is a carpet-munching lesbian.

My heroes are John Wayne, the Simpsons, and whoever canceled Dr. Quinn, Medicine Woman.

I don't hate the rich. I don't pity the poor.

I know wrestling is fake and I don't waste my time arguing about it.

I think global warming is a big lie. Where are all those experts now, when I am freezing my a$$ through a long winter?

I've never owned a slave, or was a slave, I didn't wander forty years in the desert after getting chased out of Egypt, I haven't burned any witches or been persecuted by the Turks and neither have you, so shut-the-#$%!-up already.

I want to know which church is it exactly where the Reverend Jesse Jackson preaches. And where does he get his money. And why is he always part of the problem and not the solution.

I think the cops have every right to shoot your sorry a$$ if you're running from them.

I also think they have the right to pull your a$$ over if you are
breaking the law, regardless of what color you are.

I think if you are too stupid to know how a ballot works, I don't want you deciding who should be running the most powerful nation in the world for the next four years.

I hate those b@st@rds standing in the intersections trying to sell me crap or trying to guilt me into making 'donations' to their cause. These people should be targets.

I think if you are in the passing lane, and not passing, your license should be revoked, and you should be forced to ride the bus until you promise to never delay the rest of us again.

I think beef jerky could quite possibly be the perfect food.

I believe that it doesn't take a village to raise a child, it takes two parents.

I think tattoos and piercing are fine if you want them, but please don't pretend they are a political statement.

I think Dr. Seuss was a genius.

I'm neither angry nor disenfranchised, no matter how desperately the mainstream media would like the world to believe otherwise.

I believe if she has her lips on your Willie, it is sex, and it is sex for both of you. This even applies when you are President of the United States.

If that makes me a BAD American, then yes, I'm a BAD American

If you too are a BAD American please forward this to everyone you know.

We need our country back!

jayzee

(05/16/2001; 23:14:47 MDT - Msg ID: 53779)

PH in LA (deregulation)

(Lost first part of my message.)
Many people are demanding that Pres. Bush solve the energy problem immediately. I have one question. Can W build a power plant, transmission lines, or pipe lines in a few weeks???? Of course not!!! Most all of his program would have to develop over a couple of years or more.

FredBear

(05/16/2001; 23:18:55 MDT - Msg ID: 53780)

PH in LA (05/16/01; 15:47:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 53749)

You said: "Otherwise you might be expected to explain where all the loudmouths like Sierre Madre, Black Blade, Leigh, Asher, FredBear and all the rest of them were back when de-regulation was being adopted."

Could you please explain to me how it is that my asking you a couple of simple questions, and showing some disagreement with your post, makes me a "loudmouth?"

Is this a rational reaction because I did not completely agree with you?

I am not obsessed with fault, but I can tell you what I am obsessed with: Personal freedom and personal responsibility.

You also said: "Sure they do. And they'll pay market rates for goods that will be costing lots more to produce when the "market rates" they want to charge for electricty begin to be factored into the market rates for all those produced goods, too. The thinking of those proud to call themselves ants should be re-examined. It's not us against them. All kinds of insects are in this together."

I don't think I said it was us against them. And yes, the rest of the country will have to pay increased market rates for goods coming from CA. This does not mean the rest of the country should subsidize CA's electricity. It means the rest of the country can freely choose to buy their produce from somewhere else or not at all.

But you don't seem to understand where the real problem lies. And calling me derogatory names is not going to help.

Can we discuss this topic without insults?

Black Blade

(05/17/2001; 00:36:06 MDT - Msg ID: 53781)

Sliding Economy

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ipsa/20010516/cm/sliding_economy_1.html
Snippit:

WASHINGTON--The economy's slide has one familiar feature: Few, if any, economists predicted it. We should not be surprised. Economists routinely miss the turning points of business cycles and, indeed, have missed most of the major economic transformations of the past half-century, whether for good or ill. The great boom of the 1990s was barely anticipated. The same was true of other upheavals: sporadic ``energy crises,'' the sharp rise of inflation in the 1970s, its dramatic fall in the 1980s, and various shifts in productivity growth.

Black Blade: DITTO! Many count on BLS data for their prognostications. No wonder they get it wrong.
View Yesterday's Discussion.

Black Blade

(05/17/2001; 00:44:55 MDT - Msg ID: 53782)

Bush to Propose New Drilling, Conservation

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010517/ts/bush_energy_dc_17.html
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush will propose new oil drilling on federal lands, speeding development of new nuclear plants and tax incentives of $10 billion for energy-saving measures like buying hybrid cars, a U.S. official said on Wednesday night. "America in the year 2001 faces the most serious energy shortage since the oil embargoes of the 1970s,'' the White House said in an overview of the 163-page national energy policy report, to be released by Bush on Thursday. ``A fundamental imbalance between supply and demand defines our nation's energy crisis.''

Black Blade: George Dubya - a man with a plan. he presents his energy plan today. Probably some weak pandering and plans that will never get off the ground. Should be interesting anyway. There's still a lot of leftist extremist activists in the House and Senate that will attempt to scuttle any energy plan.

Usul

(05/17/2001; 01:16:50 MDT - Msg ID: 53783)

Euro Zone, And ECB, Are Stalked by Inflation

http://www.iht.com/articles/20170.html"The inflation report is likely to delay further interest-rate cuts by the ECB and is something of an embarrassment to the central bank. Last Thursday it announced a surprise reduction in its main interest rate, saying inflation pressures would diminish..."

FredBear

(05/17/2001; 03:53:04 MDT - Msg ID: 53784)

What is the Real Problem?

What is the real problem?

In the US there is this ongoing debate in the media and on message boards about two very important and closely related topics: Energy and Electricity.

When I say "energy" I mean oil, unleaded gas, natural gas, heating oil, etc. The current fuss is over the price of unleaded gas. In 1999 and early 2000 the fuss was over crude oil. Then the fuss moved to natural gas.

It seems that with each large increase in consumer prices, the consumer, lead by the mainstream media and certain politicians want to focus blame on the producers. The producers, who are now making a profit from the production of fossil and refined fuels, are getting beat up in the media, accused of price gouging, accused of conspiracy and violation of anti-trust laws.

In the electricity discussion, the parallels are similar. The prices are increasing and the media is focusing the consumer's attention on the producers. The producers are making profits and this is considered bad. They are accused of price gouging, accused of conspiracy and violation of anti-trust laws.

But why is the focus on the effect and not the cause? Are we so weak that we no longer can acknowledge the truth about what has happened in the USA in the last 10 years?

Look at the growth of gadgets in your homes. Over 1.5 years ago I posted a list of electronic gadgets (on another board) from my home. I challenged our then thin ranks to examine their lifestyles and look around them to see if they were buried in gadgets. No one took me up on it. But I know from examining my friends and families homes what has happened. The average home in the USA now consumes much more electricity than it did 10 years ago.

Now look at what has happened in California. Server farms the size of football fields. Homes getting larger means more lights, more electronic gizmos, more clocks, more computers. Hell, some people need their own generator.

Now look at the roads. What do you see? An SUV in every garage is what has happened. People driving a 100 miles one way to get to work because urban sprawl has pushed people out of the cities to "get away from it all."

But what is the "cause" of all this. Some of you know the answer. Others know but ignore it because they want an immediate solution. The immediate solution is to have government come in and take control of the energy producers. It is so obvious to see that this course of action will just be another step in the continuing loss of freedom in the USA. Why do you not see this?

Why not focus your attention and energy on the real cause. TOO MUCH EASY MONEY. This is the root cause of all the problems that afflict the USA today. This cause has succeeded in diverting wealth from productive endeavors like exploration for more fuels and development of new technologies, to wasted endeavors like dot.coms.

What I would like to see some people do is to educate these so-called "consumer groups" so that they can focus their attention on educating people about MONEY. It is this education that will allow the USA to rise from the coming recession and lead the world into the next phase of prosperous growth.

But it will not happen overnight. The USA must experience some pain for its sins. But it is well known in economics, ask any Japanese this, that it is better to take your medicine in one dose, then try to treat the sickness over a lengthy period of time. A review of the �30s or the �70s will also help people to understand this.

The USA already has too much government involved in EVERY aspect of trade. More government in the energy sector is not going to help. Capping prices, windfall profits taxes, forced rationing, etc., will not solve the problems. These have all been tried before.

Only a good dose of reality will solve this problem. That reality is the USA must get off the easy money habit NOW. The USA needs to get back to sound money and free markets.

Sound money will cause people to save, not spend. Savings are needed for capital formation, which is needed for investment. Sound money allows people to preserve wealth instead of continually fighting the evils of inflation.

Free markets must be allowed to work. Free markets do like to create monopolies, contrary to some people's opinions. Non-coercive monopolies are very efficient because the owners know that any misstep invites fierce competition.

Is the USA ready for this? Unfortunately no. Not yet. But if any country can do it, it is the USA.

What's the first thing you can do? Resolve yourself to stop voting for Republicans and Democrats. Vote for someone who understands the importance of freedom, liberty, responsibility, free markets and limited government. It's your only chance.

Vote Libertarian.
Educate Yourself.
Educate Someone Else.

One person at a time. That's the way Jesus and the disciples did it.

Netking

(05/17/2001; 04:16:02 MDT - Msg ID: 53785)

Silver - Gold ratio

There were times in ancient Egypt when silver was considered more valuable than gold. Nevertheless, a ratio of thirteen ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold was common during the Old Testament era. The last five hundred years the ratio has been as diverse as eight-to-one and ninety-to-one. During the 1700s up to the mid-1800s the ratio was slightly more than fifteen-to- one. The last one hundred years the ratio averaged more than thirty ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold.
Given the current fundamental demand & supply dynamics where will this ratio move to over the next 2-3 years?

PH in LA

(05/17/2001; 05:27:04 MDT - Msg ID: 53786)

"Personal freedom and responsibility" in CA and elsewhere

Dear FredBear,

Please do not take my charactarization of you as a "loudmouth" so personally. Yours was guilt by association. The "discussion" on this topic has been strident and personal for a very long time now and a number of sub-rational posters on this forum have tried to demonize anyone who lives in California as if they are somehow personally responsible. Perhaps they are less loud than just plain stupid... but they would probably take such a charactarization even more personally. That whole grasshopper/ant simile has been overused to the point of pointlessness. I was just trying to point that out without bringing the issue of intelligence into the discussion.

You are right that I probably don't "understand where the real problem lies". I don't pretend to. I don't even particularly want to. Calling you derogatory names was not intended to help or affect the energy situation at all. It was only intended to point out that this is not a personal issue, as Leigh and others seems to want to make it. In fact, on a personal level, it is not even a particularly important issue. On the personal level, it is boring.

Yes, as you say, the rest of the country still "CAN freely choose to buy their produce form somewhere else or not at all". I personally don't care where they "freely choose to buy" whatever they do, or do not, choose to buy. They can buy whatever they want, or don't want, wherever or whenever they do or do not want to. But last I heard, California was paying for electricity with Federal Reserve Notes or their digital equivalent. Nobody, not you, nor Leigh, nor Black Blade, nor anyone else was subsidizing CA's electricity, any more than CA was subsidizing anybody else's wine, entertainment, software, etc.

But if you truly were "obsessed with personal freedom and personal responsibility" as you and the rest of the self-proclaimed libertarians so loudly claim to be, you would already know all this, wouldn't you?

Pete

(05/17/2001; 06:26:16 MDT - Msg ID: 53787)

How to create an energy crisis

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/sennholz051801.htmlA good read on the reasons for Ca's energy crisis. IMHO

FredBear

(05/17/2001; 06:39:48 MDT - Msg ID: 53788)

PH in LA

I was not taking your post personally, I was just wondering if I had posted something derogatory.

I understand where you are coming from. There are of course many fine people who live in CA, including my in-laws.

But by not wanting to understand what the real problem is, how does the problem get solved? If everyone in CA thinks the way you do, then how does the problem(s) get resolved?

Maybe apathy is part of the problem. I cannot begin to understand this as I have been a problem solver all my life.

Good luck.

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/17/2001; 06:50:06 MDT - Msg ID: 53789)

Netking @ # 53785 Silver - Gold ratio

Sir

A few days ago I asked if someone could provide an estimate of the most efficient cost of production for silver. I got no response. I find it hard to believe that no one associated with this forum can provide the answer. I sure would like to know.

I believe that projecting the long run Silver to Gold ratio has value. I do not think that it is reasonable to assume that there is some mystic ratio that indicates disequilibrium. I do believe that the ratio changes violently in times of great political and economic stress and that the market is often wrong for long periods of time. Certain dynamics determine the ratio. I do not know what all of the dynamics are but some of them are obvious as follows:

1)The ratio of the respective costs of production
2)Industrial demand verses current production of both metals with an eye on above ground inventories
3)Political attitudes towards the monetary nature of either or both metals

Maybe someone could to add to the above.

1) This approach would not be objective, I know; however, it could offer some value and would certainly stimulate our thinking on the subject. For example let us assume that the average costs of production for gold and silver are $270 and $4.00 respectively. This ratio turns out to be 60:1. Now I know that this relationship cannot be the determining factor, however, in the long haul it has to be considered. The very fact that this relationship is dynamic would tend to cause one to believe that the Silver to Gold ratio is not fixed by the Almighty and any attempt to fix it will surely fail. The last time this was attempted through mandate of the bimetallic standard nearly wiped out the gold reserves of the US as God's law, (generally referred to Gresham's Law) kicked in and we all know that gold went into hiding while sivler circulated freely. silver.

2) The great changes in industrial usage of silver over the last few decades also cannot be ignored. Annual production verses industrial consumption has been covered in depth of late. The draw down of above ground supply in the last 10 years has resulted in a long-term shift in the relationship in the Silver and Gold ratio, which has not yet been acknowledged by the market. As a ratio cannot be mandated by governments due to the overriding laws of nature, neither can a ratio be controlled by derivative instruments, manipulation, or controls of any sort, due to the overriding laws of nature.

3) Political attitudes have always had an effect on this ratio. The importance of silver as a reserve for central banks is zero. The importance of gold as a reserve, in my opinion, is showing upward potential, past gold auctions to the contrary. I am of the opinion that the Silver to Gold ratio is inversely related to the preference to gold as a central banking reserve. Should central banks show a stronger preference to hold gold as opposed to paper, the Ratio of Gold to Silver should widen as a result.

Now if one were trying to decide which PM to emphasize in the hoarding mix, it seems to me that these and other factors should enter into the decision making process. The big question is: -- which has the greatest probability to develop first? A collapse in the silver futures market, a collapse in the gold futures market, or a collapse in the USD. The most eminent possibility appears to be a collapse in the silver futures due to lack of above ground inventory and continued industrial demand. This of course puts precedence upon silver in the nearer term. A rollover into Physical Gold from Physical Silver would be in order at some point, for the long term no doubt favors Gold. Gold has all the advantages over silver that silver has over copper.

If the silver derivatives market were to go first I would expect that silver could go to $100 before gold could even get out of the gate. I would expect the ratio to approach at least 8:1 before it begins to turn back to reality. By reality, I mean, that Gold would move back into favor, publicly, as a reserve asset for nations and central banks. Since this is all wild speculation on my part let me just pick a rollover point. When silver approaches the old and honored 15-16:1 ratio one might roll over into gold with their physical holdings as the ratio may someday approach 200:1. Now you know I am neurotic.

The most important observation in this whole area is the fact that, no matter how you slice it, the overriding laws of nature and natures God will prevail, unless of course man has become God.

What I am offering is not very scientific and is not intended to be. Philosophical thoughts interspersed with a little bit of logic have served me well in the past. Numbers and facts are good and necessary but worthless without some reasoning. I would like to hear other thoughts in this area. No need to try to prove with numbers that which will surely change tomorrow but there is value attempting the very difficult, forecasting, especially about the future.

Very respectfully submitted,

HBM

FredBear

(05/17/2001; 07:26:01 MDT - Msg ID: 53790)

More Talk on Russia Using Euros

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010517/l1778165.htmlA year and a half ago I had a converasation with a former high up in the US Treasury dept. Let's say he was in the top 4 positions. He told me that the US ships plane loads of $100 bills to Russia everyday. Some sort of payoff. He would not go into anymore detail than that.

MOSCOW, May 17 (Reuters) - Russia could emerge as an unlikely champion of the fledgling euro after leaders at a Russia-EU summit agreed to study ways to boost its use in trade and increase its share of Russia's official reserves.

Details of the pact agreed in Moscow on Thursday are still sketchy and the euro plays only a bit part on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange, accounting for just one percent of the $124 billion traded in 2000.

But experts say a major switch from dollar contracts to the euro by Russia's major hydrocarbon producers, who provide EU states with 21 percent and 41 percent respectively of their oil and gas imports, could see the euro come of age in world trade.

In a July 1999 report, commissioned by the government and the Russian Central Bank, the Russian Academy of Science said the introduction of the euro ``directly bears on the strategic interests of Russia and alters the conditions for its integration into the world economy''.

nickel62

(05/17/2001; 07:33:03 MDT - Msg ID: 53791)

Hill Billy MItchell, I think the reason that no one posited a price for the production of silver is that I am not sure anyone knows..

Most of the last hundred years have had silver going through redistribution as the demonetization of silver brought the bulk of the metal slowly out of its hoarding role and into commercial supply calculations. The resulting downward pressure on silver has made it very difficult to determine the price at which enough would be produced going forward to meet the total demand. Much of the silver in the world is produced as a by product of other mining, gold, copper, zinc etc and therefore would continue to be produced regardless of the price. This combined with the obvious draw down of once massive inventories over the last several decades makes the true market clearing cost of production difficult to predict. I think it is safe to say it is considerably higher than $6-$7 dollars US.

Rockgrabber

(05/17/2001; 07:42:29 MDT - Msg ID: 53792)

Gold Carry Trade

It sure use to be easy to make alot of strong dollars with the gold carry trade. Lease rates were so nice and low, and dollar rates were nice and high. Does not look like such a hot play anymore. Could that have been a lid on the market?

California is a trend setter!! We set trends. You look to us for everything. ((By the way, this blackout thing is a big pain in dbutt)).

FED looks like they want to move strait to hyperinflation! Remember how long it took the rate hikes to impact (and that was way slower and more gradual)? Now they are falling like gold has. By summer we need huge sums of money it looks so we can pay our bills.

Mr Gresham

(05/17/2001; 08:29:57 MDT - Msg ID: 53793)

Who Let the POG Out?

One o' these days, Norton. One o' these days...

Old Yeller

(05/17/2001; 08:33:38 MDT - Msg ID: 53794)

A thing of beauty

http://www.futuresource.com/cfnews.asp?c=26&aid=43362&cid=4386&pd=1
Technical picture of gold is looking very nice,it's seven weeks and counting.Check out the 30 yr. bond graph too,interesting comment;the fundamentals are debatable,the technicals are not.

PH in LA

(05/17/2001; 08:43:29 MDT - Msg ID: 53795)

PS. FredBear

From someone who is "obsessed with personal responsibility" (your words) I would just like to know how being unapathetic makes you a "problem solver" in this case. Does your perception of "where the real problem lies" mean that you will be solving it anytime soon? Lots of people want to know.

You see, I also believe in taking personal responsibility for myself. I just don't see how my "not wanting to understand what the real problem is", affects how the problem gets solved. As an experienced problem solver, you must know that part of taking personal responsibility is knowing when to do so. And when it's not your responsibility at all.

Good luck to you too.

schippi

(05/17/2001; 09:09:12 MDT - Msg ID: 53796)

Select Gold Hourly Chart

http://www.SelectSectors.com/agpm70.gif FSAGX continues Up

USAGOLD

(05/17/2001; 09:12:26 MDT - Msg ID: 53797)

Today's Commentary: Gold Moves on Inflation Concerns, Unwinding Carry Trade

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html5/17/01 (www.usagold.com). . . .Gold continued to rally in
international markets on inflation concerns, short covering and the
growing perception that the gold carry trade-- a long time deterrent to
higher gold prices -- has gone into retrograde. "It's [gold's] back,
just when everyone buried it and gave up on it," said John Ing,
president of brokerage Maison Placements Canada. "There is a whiff
of inflation in the air. There's no doubt about that. . .My expectation
is that the dollar is the last bubble to burst and when that takes place
that will be the last impetus to take gold through US$300."

The article linked to the right under the title Perfect Storm for
Rally in Gold Sector: Confluence of Factors tells why this
rally appears to have more gumption than rallies in the recent past.
Overall, the recent string of cuts against a backdrop of rising prices,
particularly energy prices, raises the specter of rapid inflation in the
months ahead. . . . . . . . .

To read the rest of today's report, we inite you to join us
at our private access COMMENTARY & REVIEW page.
A quick, one-time registration is required. Please go to link above.

uponroof

(05/17/2001; 09:14:01 MDT - Msg ID: 53798)

Production Cost of Silver

Good morning folks,

hugo, nice to hear from you. Hope your Swiss are done selling for awhile.

Noticed the discussion on 'silver costs' and offer this explanation from my physical supplier.

"With nearly 75% of newly-mined silver coming as a by-product of other metals, primarily base metals, silver has no 'cost of production.'

Obviously, pure silver mines (Hecla's Lucky Change, the famed Sunshine Mine, when operating) have production costs. But, the 'industry' doesn't."

Sometimes simple answers are best.

Rhody

(05/17/2001; 09:16:47 MDT - Msg ID: 53799)

SILVER

Good morning from Toronto. There seems to be some interest
in silver fundamentals today. Silver has been in a deficit
of supply for about ten years and yet despite inflation
in other more valuable commodities, it is now about where
it was in price ten years ago. Too commmodity traders
(simpletons) this means that the supply has been constant
and plentiful. Since silver is a commodity money, it is
best viewed as subject to monetary intervention to control
its perceived value despite underlying fundamentals.
It's cost of production is irrelevant, as it's paper price
will be suppressed by monetary interests, but if you are
curious about how far these monetary interests will drive
the suppression, here are a few facts. Costs of production
for straight silver producers in the USA are about $10.
In Mexico, the cost is closer to $6 (although uptick over
on Kitco, states that Mexico's largest producer admits to
costing out silver at $2.30. Since uptick is a paper spinner, I have huge reservations about the accuracy of his
figure.) I believe it's safe to say that silver has been
and still is being sold at below its cost of production.
This will go on until there are nolonger any above ground
stockpiles. We will never know when that happens until we
see the price explosion. There have been lotsa stories
about Chinese exports. Some people say (Ted Butler) that
rumors of Chinese sales are much exaggerated if they occur
at all. Other's say 60 Moz in 1999 and 40 Moz in each of
2000 and 2001. I don't know. I do know that if you had to
pick a bogus source of silver, secretive China is a good
choice. One could turn to the CPM group, but they are
affiliated with Goldman Sachs, who is mega short silver.
You could listen to The Silver Institute, but they share
projects and staff with the Silver User's Association, a
group that has been manipulating silver prices for years
on behalf of consumers who want the stuff for next to nothing. They have achieved their goal. Silver is priced
at next to nothing. How do I know? In 1900, one oz of
silver represented a good days wage. Now, silver is priced
below one hour's wage at minimum wages. Something is
dreadfully wrong here. When price is at this level of
discord from reality, the level of manipulation is signalling massive imbalance in the financial system. It
may also be signaling that FOA is correct about the death
of paper gold, not because of the paper price of gold, but
because paper silver is so much farther down that lethal
path, and is predicting what is to come in gold.

Galearis

(05/17/2001; 09:18:28 MDT - Msg ID: 53800)

We may all have it backwards on gold and silver leasing?

Another's (Another another)(smile) contrarian viewEveryone by now accepts the concept that the pm markets are moved through manipulation based on political motives. Ted Butler, Trail Guide, Another, and a host of others have all studied the machinations to great lengths. The conventional wisdom (or is that the unconventional wisdom)(smile)regarding the leasing game would have us all believe that leasing is fraudulent and/or stupid on the part of all parties - and especially the CBs. The damage, the shrinking central bank reserves of these pms are wildly pointed at (as near as anyone can determine) as evidence of a system that has trapped itself into a process that was initiated to protect the "value" of fiat currencies (primarily the USD) but over time itself became an element of systemic risk. Could it be that we have it all backwards?

Consider for a moment a wild speculation that these parties were not being stupid according to their interests. Consider ONLY that they were CAUGHT by the aforementioned people in a predictable process (leasing) that had JUST these goals in mind. That goal is to actually rid CBs of pms.

This is NOT my concept. It is speculation by another, but is one that we should at least consider. To wit:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

"I think the CBs use leasing to suppress gold and silver. After all, their primary purpose is to maintain the credibility of the financial system. I think the big movers
like the BOE, ECB, and FED will lease until they have nothing actually left in the
vaults, (but still say the metal is there on the books). I think they have been keeping
lease rates as low as they can, but the demand (for rollovers plus suppression) is
now causing a general firming of rates. All of this is guesswork, which is why pms
are the least transparent of markets, and why pms are the most risky of investments.
It's all political.
I don't know if China has exported a single ounce of silver. Neither does Ted Butler.
I do know that silver is obscenely cheap right now, but we will never predict when or why
this thing blows up. Everybody lies in this game. Everybody.
With regard to your Mundel comment, I think you have it backwards. The lower the
gold reserves in CB vaults, the less vested interest cbs have in a rise in its price.

Remember, gold up, fiat down. It can be no other way. These guys print the fiat.
Gold is the enemy. They hold gold as a threat to the market, lest it rise in fiat terms.
In other words, gold in cb vaults is ammunition to be used against pog. They lease.
They swap. They sell futures, and they sell into the spot market. They even sell to their private friends when their friends are overexposed in the war against gold, in order to bail them out of the exposures. Gold will rise when the cbs have none.

All that I have learned over the past 5 years indicates that the above is true.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

If the fiat dynasty (if I may call it that) looks on gold as a monetary metal that is in direct competition to their product then in the best interests of "free markets" and artful competition (and deception), it behooves these producers of paper products to attack the competion. If they succeed, then gold is the commodity they all tout it to be. Only a commodity. It will always have value, like silver, but only in the "limited" market to which it is assigned.

That being said, we should all rally behind our local CB and encourage greater aggression in divesting their reserves of this commodity. For once it is all gone there will be less of a reason to manipulate its price (I said less, not "no") and THEN there will be a shortage of readily available product to flood the market.

Of course if the fiat industry fails, then gold and silver and the other pms will, like any other real assets be bartered trade commodities like few others.

And yes, then we will all see history repeat itself as civilization proceeds (sic) to regress to those earlier times of barter.

Have a nice day all,

G.

Gandalf the White

(05/17/2001; 09:32:41 MDT - Msg ID: 53801)

SPOT is looking for SPIKE !!!

Old Yeller (05/17/01; 08:33:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 53794)
A thing of beauty
***********
Thank you SIR Old Yellow !!
The Hobbits sure like the way these charts are looking !!
AND the way the Dow and Duck look now, is having the Hobbits singing "Turn out the lights, THE party's over!!"
FUNtastic Bear Trap has been sprung AGAIN !!
Better keep up the accumulation of the YELLOW !!
<;-)

SHIFTY

(05/17/2001; 09:45:15 MDT - Msg ID: 53802)

Gandalf the White

Are you going to do any mining this season?

$hifty

JCTex

(05/17/2001; 10:28:18 MDT - Msg ID: 53803)

Galearis (05/17/01; 09:18:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 53800)

What is backwards?

When this gold carry trade ponzi scheme is over, the mines owe gold, not dollars. They will have to repay gold not dollars, annually, for the next 5-10 years, no matter what value the gold is per ounce.

The CB gets its gold back [period], and the mining company stockholder gets rickidooed because his CEO sold the gold production over the next 5-10 years for $270; and because of the supply & demand situation, the price of real gold will haul it north of $10,000 or whatever.

Who gets paid? The CBs. Who owns the CBs? It ain't us taxpayers that own lots of ugly green paper with dead presidents printed on it.

uponroof

(05/17/2001; 10:55:55 MDT - Msg ID: 53804)

Bush and superconductive power grids

President Bush just presented his new energy plan. One of the items stated very specifically is that he wants to build a new 'power grid with more efficient transmission lines'.

That means silver (superconducting silver lines).

lamprey_65

(05/17/2001; 11:39:29 MDT - Msg ID: 53805)

Rhody

Interesting thoughts on silver. An ounce worth a day's wage in 1900? Hmmm.

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/17/2001; 11:42:50 MDT - Msg ID: 53806)

Hello Al Fulchino, I took notice of yesterday's msg#: 53758

You said to Trail Guide, "There is in my mind this anti Western theme that you have and I am at a loss to understand why. ...all I ever hear is the notion about us Westerners not being able to keep our hands on gold."

My friend, I've got to scratch my head a bit on that one, particularly because this IS a forum on gold. And due to its english presentation and the monetary hegemony of the "West" and its currency, the focus of almost all conversation here is surely to be expected to fall upon the treatment of gold within our "Western" monetary machinations. I'm certain no offence is ever intended.

But further, how can any effective dialog occur on such topics of human nature and activity without building upon generalizations -- descriptions of the "average"? Unfortunately, you have adopted the perception that such generalizations are akin to "categorizing" people with the aim of ordering the categories by degree of superiority. I hope this is not the prevailing sentiment out there in the world because I, too, present much material built upon the "general", as do most effective economists, businessmen, scientists, engineers, historians, politicians, weathermen, the list goes on...

But if you are unappeased by that, and still feel that we "Westerners are being specifically targeted with lashes of spitfire, this occurs to me. Sometimes the necessary or most effective medicine is only available in the form of a bitter pill. Truth?

Or put another way, sometimes it does take more than gentle kisses to inspire actions and solve problems. I'm confident you already know this, and have yourself rolled back your sleaves on more than one occasion to tackle whichever task was at hand. Are you truly upset over this??? Mood is nearly an impossible thing to gage in the typewritten word.

Galearis

(05/17/2001; 12:26:24 MDT - Msg ID: 53807)

@JCTex

"Who gets paid? The CBs. Who owns the CBs? It ain't us taxpayers that own lots of ugly green paper with dead presidents printed on it."

>>>>>>>>>>
In this speculation one should remember one thing - and the one thing is a concept that has been upheld throughout modern history - that the financial system will be maintained at all cost. The banks, the smaller largest fish in the school of swimmers led by the CBs, will eat all other entities to protect their product -currencies. They give not rodent's posterior care about the health of primary and secondary industries, commodities markets, dot coms - any other interests - unless those interests would pose a problem to the value of fiat and the rendering of credit. They care about the markets only as much as the health of markets pose a currency risk.

They certainly would not care, under the premise of the last post, about bullion banks that would deal in a commodity that is in competition with currency. Should bullion banks go under due to their short exposure, the very infrastructure of the gold and silver market would be damaged - and what would be wrong with a dysfunctional infrastructure dealing with a commodity that is in visible competition with currencies. The same could be said for the whole mining industry. They would care, however, about other banking interests that are exposed.

Note it is my understanding that ScotiaMoccata is a bullion bank with close affiliations with the Bank of Nova Scotia. However, it is structured such that a failure in the bullion bank would not pose a risk to the parent bank.

Please understand that this is all a muse..., and a grouchy one too. I sure hope it stays that way...

G.

Mr Gresham

(05/17/2001; 12:36:20 MDT - Msg ID: 53808)

Paging Dr. Rohrschach...Paging Dr. Rohrschach...

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html"Ver-r-ry interesting...and now what do you see?"

"I see a hill, and a boy on the hill. It's a windy day. And he's running down the hill, with a kite on a string behind him. He keeps looking back, to see if his kite is still up in the air. He wants to run, freely, and feel his kite rising up in the air behind him. So he runs very fast down the hill. But his kite keeps crashing every time it gets up a little bit higher. Then, one day..."

"Ver-r-ry good...I think we're making progress now. Unfortunately, we have come to the end of our time... Next week?"

schippi

(05/17/2001; 12:51:32 MDT - Msg ID: 53809)

Select Gold Hourly Chart

http://www.SelectSectors.com/agpm70.gif FSAGX moving Up & UP!

Mr Gresham

(05/17/2001; 13:31:39 MDT - Msg ID: 53810)

September 27, 1999

http://www.kitco.com/cgi-bin/daily_graphs.cgiGotta ask the question again: Who were the Spikers of Sept. 27, 1999?

Wasn't the little guys running out to the coin shops. Most of them never even heard of the ECB yet, if now.

Who was covering, delta hedging, scrambling for physical? And what positions are they in now? Are their exit strategies more confined now, or less?

The suddenness of their move then tells us that, as sleepy as the gold market is made to look from the public's view, it is watched with eagle eyes by those with the power to move it -- up as well as down.

Why they have not done so again, in similar magnitude, on any occasion since Sept. 27, 1999, is a puzzle to me.

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/17/2001; 14:12:34 MDT - Msg ID: 53811)

Banks, consumers, and credit

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010517/n17325481.htmlEXCERPT:

WASHINGTON, May 17 (Reuters) - Many U.S. banks were still tightening business credit in recent months even as the Federal Reserve has been cutting interest rates to jump-start the flagging economy, according to a new Fed survey of bank lending officers released Thursday. ---END EXCERPT---

While the Fed conducts this survey four times each year under normal circumstances, this latest survey was an extra, intra-poll survey, hinting at the Fed's concern through its keeping a watchful eye on this matter.

The survey report stated: "In general, both foreign and domestic institutions indicated that the most important reasons for tightening standards on C & I [commercial and industrial] loans were a less favorable or more uncertain economic outlook and a worsening of industry-specific problems."

And while banks cited worries over firms' backup lines of credit worsening in quality coupled with increased likelihood that they may be put to use, the survey reported that consumer demand for credit had grown even in the face of tightening standards.

Bottom line: The consumer wants credit. Always has. Always will. We therefore need gold (Free Market Gold, to be exact) as a protection against this inflationary demand on credit.

Mr Gresham

(05/17/2001; 14:32:49 MDT - Msg ID: 53812)

Galearis: A Tale of Two Fiats (having fun)

"That goal is to actually rid CBs of pms."

"The lower the gold reserves in CB vaults, the less vested interest cbs have in a rise in its price."

"Remember, gold up, fiat down. It can be no other way. These guys print the fiat. Gold is the enemy. They hold gold as a threat to the market, lest it rise in fiat terms.
In other words, gold in cb vaults is ammunition to be used against pog. They lease. They swap. They sell futures, and they sell into the spot market. They even sell to their private friends when their friends are overexposed in the war against gold, in order to bail them out of the exposures. Gold will rise when the cbs have none. "

I think this fits right into what FOA has been telling us. The CBs are not a united front, but like the crime families of, say, New York in the 30s, fight a three-way battle with the police and their competitors in crime.

In this case, fiat is the family business, and business has been good for all. But in this case, one family, the Dolorinis, have been hogging most of the juicy profit centers, and the new arrivals (actually a combine of several old families) the Euronis [Italo-American Defamation League disclaimer: sorry -- no offense intended to Americans of any ethnicity] see a chance to make a move.

A temporary alliance with the Police Commissioner, Auric Goldenbacher, buys the Euronis time to take over some of the Dolorinis' territory. (The Dolorinis have so far been able to enlist only a few Precinct Captains to look the other way on their paper-selling numbers games.)

Move too early, and the Euronis' power base will be wiped out in gang warfare. Time it right, and the Dolorinis will surrender with few shots fired, and accept a subordinate role in a new business "partnership".

Besides, the Dolorinis are distracted with their new casinos, which are starting to leak cash losses badly.

It is a three-way battle, true, and eventually the Euronis must deal with the Commissioner's ambitions to run for Mayor. But in the meantime, the enemies are the Dolorinis, and the Euronis know well not to fight on two fronts. If they are lucky, the Police will be busy elsewhere and will allow them many years of profitable operation after the D's are overthrown.

"Nothing personal, Alan. It's only business."

"I never knew New Jersey had such vast wetlands; of course, they're rather hard to see at nigh---"

R Powell

(05/17/2001; 14:49:54 MDT - Msg ID: 53813)

Two fer day

POG not only didn't give back yesterday's gains but also added $1.60 to them. The mining stocks as reflected in the XAU also held and added to yesterday's gains. The only disappointment was a slight lowering of the lease rates. IMHO, with the five Fed. rate cuts and the past rise in lease rates, there is not enough difference remaining to sustain the former gold-carry trade. However, I may be entirely wrong. ??
You and I notice the POG every day, yes? Most people have no notion or interest, including many/most that make a living through invested money. Lumber is traded daily as a futures contract along with options but how many have noticed that the lumber contract has traded "limit up" four or five times in the last two weeks? My point (opinion) is that I don't think much speculative money has even noticed any action yet in our gold market. Of all the commodities advisers the I follow only a few technical traders (chart readers) have raised the possibility of a higher POG.
Those that are die-hard bugs are excited, but them are a small minority. I suspect that most of them are posters or lurkers in the tri-forum area. Perhaps a good $20+ daily gain will get some attention. Soon, I hope.
Rich

Mr Gresham

(05/17/2001; 14:55:17 MDT - Msg ID: 53814)

HBM: Silver/Gold ration

"3) Political attitudes have always had an effect on this ratio. The importance of silver as a reserve for central banks is zero. The importance of gold as a reserve, in my opinion, is showing upward potential, past gold auctions to the contrary. I am of the opinion that the Silver to Gold ratio is inversely related to the preference to gold as a central banking reserve. Should central banks show a stronger preference to hold gold as opposed to paper, the Ratio of Gold to Silver should widen as a result."

Thanks for sticking with this question. Your tenacity sometimes shakes us out of doldrums and makes a new thought (for me, anyway) bubble to the surface.

One thing that occurred to me when I read your paragraph above, was: "With what would the CBs buy either metal? (actually, probably only gold)" Why, with paper. So the paper price of the metal would go up. No big news there.

(I guess they could buy silver with gold, but it looks like they're not going to buy anything with silver, since they don't have any (?) )

Then the thought hits: What we've done here is get away from talking about the $Dollar price of a PM, and stick strictly with the exchange value -- thing for thing -- of two PMs, gold and silver. We have no certainty what the proper ratio will be, but there _will_ be a ratio of exchange. And, even if the exchange is in practice mediated outside by a dollar price, we are THINKING now about the relative worths of the two things themselves, and not how many dollars each fetches. That is a BREAKTHROUGH and a healthy exercise of dollar-independence.

(It is harder to begin thinking about gold in exchange for houses, cars, natural gas bills, since those are _so_ dollar-bound in our minds. The "man's suit for an ounce" analogy has been useful, but perhaps too well-worn. And Rhody just gave us the silver ounce for a day's wage in 1900. That's useful, too.)

I don't think we can devote our tired brains to too many of these weighing-of-the-worths at once, at this time, so the gold-silver ratio is one that at least keeps us nimbly stepping away from POG-thinking all the time...

Mr Gresham

(05/17/2001; 15:09:25 MDT - Msg ID: 53815)

Dow(n)?

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^DJX&d=o&q=G[Of course that was "Ratio" not "Ration" in the header below]

Somebody bet $1.6 million today against the Dow being at 10,000 in June '02.

Sir Turnaround: Brilliant play last night!: "There is nothing wrong with your television set. "

Black Blade

(05/17/2001; 16:30:25 MDT - Msg ID: 53816)

Report of the National Energy Policy Development Group

http://www.whitehouse.gov/energy/
Here is the White House Energy Report. It is in pdf format. There are also a lot of special energy news reports on the tube tonight. Energy insiders galore are coming out to lay it on the line. The Grasshoppers are a bit peeved about the whole situation and that there is no quick fix for the nation's energy woes. Today I heard Kommissar Davis complain about higher petroleum prices, and yet he does not offer to cut petroleum taxes. It appears that his concerns are somewhat disingenuous. It is interesting that the Dems got exactly what they wanted with higher gas prices and now they are complaining. After all, their point man Al Gore demanded that gas prices should rise to $5.00/gallon in his great scientific study "Earth in the Balance. One should be careful what he wishes for. We can expect the "Green" elitists from Club Sierra and the political left to increase the anti-technology-anti energy rhetoric in the coming days. Looks to be a "very" good time to grab so gold.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/17/2001; 16:37:33 MDT - Msg ID: 53817)

USA Praises President's Energy Plan

http://politics.yahoo.com/politics/features/us_newswire/20015/0517-168.htmlLack of Leadership In The Past Has Left All Americans, Especially Seniors, Vulnerable

Snippit:

FAIRFAX, VA, May 17 /U.S. Newswire/ -- Charles W. Jarvis, President and CEO of United Seniors Association commended President Bush and Vice President Cheney for making recommendations for practical and proven solutions to the energy crisis. "The Bush Administration's comprehensive approach to energy will wake us up from the energy nightmare. This energy plan will put the U.S. on the road to abundant energy and conservation with economic dynamism," Mr. Jarvis said. "The Clinton-Gore Administration was asleep at the wheel for eight long years while energy policy crashed." "The great tragedy is this: If President Bush's approach had been in place during the last eight years, California's crisis would never have occurred and seniors' health and finances would not be at risk," Mr. Jarvis said.

Black Blade: No argument here. Grasshopperism vs. Antism.

Black Blade

(05/17/2001; 16:52:31 MDT - Msg ID: 53818)

Bush Energy Plan Is Right On Target, Says California's Pacific Research Institute

http://politics.yahoo.com/politics/features/us_newswire/20015/0517-154.html
Snippit:

SACRAMENTO, Calif., May 17 /U.S. Newswire/ -- President George W. Bush's energy plan is the right policy to address California's energy crisis, according to Lance T. Izumi, author of "Lights Out: California's Electricity Debacle, Causes and Cures," and Steven Hayward, author of the "Index of Leading Environmental Indicators 2001." Izumi and Hayward are senior fellows with the California-based Pacific Research Institute for Public Policy. "By emphasizing market-oriented solutions, relying on the private sector rather than government, and focusing on increasing energy supplies, President Bush and Vice President Cheney have gotten it right," Izumi said. "Government intervention in the energy marketplace, through price controls, a slow and cumbersome power plant approval process, and overly burdensome environmental regulations are the direct causes of California's electricity debacle," he said.

Black Blade: DITTO! Socialism has never worked - the free market is the only viable choice. California's energy industry will have to go through a painful transformation resulting from years of neglect, NIMBY and Grasshopperism. ;-)

justamereBear

(05/17/2001; 17:01:09 MDT - Msg ID: 53819)

Galearis Randy

Galearis
ScotiaMoccata is a sub of Scotia Bank, or Bank of Nova Scotia. I used to deal with it when it was just Moccatta.

Randy
This hesitancy to lend by banks has a special significance, in my mind. Since about 1936, we have never had a significant downward blip in the banks "intentions to lend", and we have not had anything worse than a recession. We have also not experienced anything but inflation, and a growing money supply (M3) since then. (a lot, or a little, but inflation)

However, if one analyses the depressions, pre Keynes, it will be noted that, in every instance, it was the banks fear of lending that essentially caused every depression. The banks pull back on their lending, M3 drops, lack of loans stops expansion, and the self reinforcing downward cycle causes more company loans to go sour, and bankers intentions to get worse, which causes more commercial loans to get called, and on and on. All this time consumers are getting more pessimistic, and desperate, and the fear spreads.

I was talking to a security guard last night, not the swiftest, nor particularly well educated. But he was a bit uneasy, and was trying to get his house a bit more in order, since possibly there was a recession coming. He was cutting back on his spending, and trying to pay some of his bills. If he does pay off his bills, it means that regardless of the bankers intentions to lend, those loans will not be in existence. A downward pressure on M3. He also saw worse things to come. (not during his lifetime of course, never soon) If he is representative of the general population, and the intentions of bankers is not to lend, (ie. tighten up on credit quality) and the intentions of borrowers is not to borrow, (and I have the sense that he IS representative of the population, except those who are desperate, and in over their head, who will borrow regardless, but who will get cut off by the bankers refusal to lend to poor credit risk) then M3 is on its way down. Those are depression conditions, DEFLATIONARY depression conditions, and if you didn't like INflation, you are going to absolutely hate DEflation. Consumption falls like a rock, and therefore jobs, along with factory closures, more fear in the banking community, more fear in the general community, etc. etc. Death spiral.

It is also interesting to note that previous depressions were set against a fairly rapidly growing population base, and therefore, growing consumption, whereas now, the population base is much more stable, with an aging population, and may even be tending towards decline because of things like superbugs, and AIDS, and the non reproductive, aging population. (who also are soon to die, additionally reducing consumption) Upward population numbers had a strong upward bias effect on overall comsumption, and tended to pull the economic trend out of its death spiral. In our pathetically weakened financial condition, who knows how sick the patient will get.

It is going to be grim.

Sorry, gotta hop, but I couldn't resist.

j'Bear

Black Blade

(05/17/2001; 17:06:00 MDT - Msg ID: 53820)

Calif. gov. says could seize Reliant power plants

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010517/n17337517.html
LOS ANGELES, May 17 (Reuters) - Calling Reliant Energy ``obstructionist'' and charging that it wants to ``bleed us dry,'' California Gov. Gray Davis is threatening to seize the Houston company's profits or its electric power plants.

Black Blade: He should do it instead of threaten. Go for it. Come on Kommissar Davis - fish or cut bait! Then the next problem will be to cross California's borders and seize some natural gas to run them. Geeezzz - what a buffoon! I can't believe that this idiot got elected. California's economy is toast. The problem is that these same type of problems will spread and the ripple effects will be felt for years to come. Go for the Gold!

Black Blade

(05/17/2001; 17:13:33 MDT - Msg ID: 53821)

Energy Problems Also Regional

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20010517/pl/regional_challenges_1.html
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (AP) - California will suffer frequent rolling blackouts and New York and New Hampshire could see power disruptions this summer according to President Bush's energy task force. In a rundown of ``regional energy challenges,'' the White House report describes a wide range of immediate problems - from supply shortages and power grid bottlenecks to farmers facing soaring fertilizer costs in the Midwest because of high natural gas prices.

Black Blade: These are some of the "Ripple Effects." The article points to energy problems in all directions - North, South, East, and West. I think that many in the know are beginning to see the writing on the wall as energy and precious metals are beginning to stir and the rumblings on Wall Street about gold will soon turn into a booming roar.

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/17/2001; 17:14:19 MDT - Msg ID: 53822)

Galearis (and all others interested in gold), a comment or two on your self-described "grouchy muse"

In discussing banks, you said we should remember one thing: "and the one thing is a concept that has been upheld throughout modern history - that the financial system will be maintained at all cost. The banks, ... led by the CBs, will eat all other entities to protect their product - currencies."

Let me say that you have indicated a dilemma. Given that their product, "currencies", are a representative unit of account of credit, and that a ratcheting-down of the economy (and subsequent loss of credit liquidity) is what stands to threaten the "financial system" which you rightfully say will be maintained at all costs, you have misdiagnosed the cost. While you say the currency will be protected, in light of my comment above, it is none other than the present value of the currency that is sacrificed to the degree necessary (in the name of preserving liquidity) as THE cost to maintain the financial system.

Similar to the adage "an apple a day will keep the doctor away", in our credit-dominated financial system the daily remedy for the System calls for creeping credit expansion. (Some might choose to call this "Inflation", but I say, why unnecessarily complicate this communication? The term "credit expansion" says it clearly!)

At this stage of the game, if the effort were put forth to protect the value of the currency, you would quickly find a severe shortage of the political will needed to endure the cascading failures it would induce within our financial system. We can save one or the other, but not both. You had it right with your opening comment. That is why the Fed is lowing rates even as prices are rising! The System will be saved. This is why I recommend strongly that our readers diversify out of currency (especially dollar) assets and into tangible goods. And knowing the gold market as I do, the opportunities residing in the latent wealth of gold exceed those of any other tangible good accessible for personal ownership today.

Moving on. Having taken note of your comments regarding Scotiamocatta, I must still voice dissent at your comment that suggested that the controlling bank interests "certainly would not care, under the premise of the last post, about bullion banks that would deal in a commodity that is in competition with currency. Should bullion banks go under..."

Let's pause for a minute to reflect on a partial laundry list of these bullion banks that you so easily envision being tossed to the dogs.

Barclays Bank
Chase Manhattan Bank
Credit Suisse First Boston
Deutsche Bank
HSBC Bank
Morgan Guaranty Trust
UBS

See any easily-disposable dogfood in that list?

Only gold "in hand" is actually gold. This should be a simple concept, yet so few people grasp it. (Apologies to Al Fulchino for stating this as a generalization.)

Again, only graspable gold metal under full ownership is gold -- in that only touchable gold conveys ALL of the properties that have come to be attributed to this kingly asset. By contrast, financial contracts denominated in gold as facilitated by bullion banks, gold derivatives, gold loans, or known by any other name, are at their core pure and simple . . . . . . (wait for it) . . . . . . CREDIT.

And what is it that keeps the doctor away from any full-fledged financial system (including bullion banking)? Let's say it all together now, "credit expansion." Participants in this bullion banking system can certainly expand the amount of gold-denominated credit, but they can't expand the amount of gold metal. And again, only gold metal has the beneficial asset qualities of gold metal. Metal has no counterparty risk. It is nobody else's liability. The same CAN NOT be said of the sea of gold-denominated credit out there in the System that is passing itself off as "good as gold". NO! It is in truth only "good as credit"!

Because the underlying potential for depositors to exercise their claim on the gold metal within the system poses this constant threat (to pull the rug out from under the confidence in this variety of credit) which grows as the credit expands, a limit is eventually reached where the participants will tolerate no further expansion. And as this has been discussed above, we know that this curb on credit expansion spells trouble for the smooth function of the financial system, in this case, bullion banking.

Human nature being what it is, and gold being unprintable, the outcome can be theoretically projected with a fair degree of confidence. The monetary authorities will first endeavor to expand the credit to preserve liquidity within the system for as long as possible, "force-feeding" the credit into the system under very easy terms (remember low gold lease rate and falling prices?) But the difference here is that, unlike the dollar banking system, as the gold-denominated credit falls into default and counterparty risk, the dearness of gold metal will rise because gold credit by any other name is ONLY JUST CREDIT, whereas only gold metal holds the wealth benefits of gold metal. The importance of that cannot be stressed enough.

So as the bullion financial system locks up in a final credit seizure from the separation of market value between printable gold-denominated CREDIT and atomic gold-denominated METAL, the final stage to be expected from the monetary authorities is to facilitate the smoothest possible exit strategy for the many participants/counterparties holding defaulted notes of yellowish credit. Some will incur outright losses that must be written off, while others may be able to mimic the four R's of HIPCs as handled by the IMF...(Renegotiate, Restructure, Refinance, Rollover).

FOA surely knows what he's talking about when he suggests that the banks may pursue various opportunities to have outstanding gold loans renegotiated, allowing repayment terms in euros.

Bottom line: As such events unfold, the only folks that shall enjoy the full wealth and attributes of gold are the ones who hold the metal. Within the banking system, credit by any colour -- green OR yellow -- is only credit. And the banking systems tend to be "saved" at the expense of sacrificing the quality (market value) of the credit they broker between their depositors and borrowers.

And the warnings just keep coming. Gold. Get you some.

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/17/2001; 17:28:42 MDT - Msg ID: 53823)

Good post, j'Bear. (#: 53819)

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.htmlIt hints at the extent of the potential suffering to which there is no general political will to tolerate. Governments sure like to meddle with the economy, don't they? As a countermeasure, we can expect to see our "elastic currency" put to the test on its limits of stretching.

When you look around and observe a roiled ocean of credit (both green and yellow) as far as the eye can see, it is time to scale the solid golden cliffs to safety and relax comfortably in a hammock under the golden sun.

Rockgrabber

(05/17/2001; 17:31:17 MDT - Msg ID: 53824)

Gold Carry Trade

Gold Carry Trade does not look so hot. The dollar Yen Carry Trade must look weaker with the decreasing interest to be found with the US Dollar. Decreasing interest rate, with possible inflation on the horizon. Anyways Big Deal, cause the gold carry trade only tricked people into the big game of easy money from leverage. For the first time in history it has been devised, on how to work these people... A FEW OF THE BIGGEST BOYS HAVE FOUND A WAY TO TRICK FOLKS INTO HELPING THEM DEPRESS THE GOLD PRICE, BY FOOLING THEM WITH THE EASY LURE OF LEVERAGE. GOLD CARRY TRADE!! OK folks time to get that gold back that was lent to you for so cheap. What is it not to be found?? Well you had better get it. Otherwise your days are numbered, and you will have to pay a heck of alot more for that same product you were so willingly selling for a little bit of dollar interest. Was not worth it in the end was it??

Not to leave out todays market action.... With energy becoming so expensive here in the US, how are we going to be competetive in international markets?? They are working for cheap energy compared to us. Much more profit will be built into their economies. Dont forget about the strong dollar, either. Is the dollar going to continually appreciate so as to not have to have oversees companies have to raise their prices to see gains in the locall currencies. In the last 5 years, they have not had to raise prices abit, as the dollar has appreciated at 6% per year, raising naturally their currency price at the same rate even more as their currencies have been devalued durring this same time, giving an extraboost to them, in profit terms, at least for a bit. (another expample of how leverage will not pay if you do not know what to do with it.)

Its easy. What do you have to do right now to sell 100 or even 1000 onces of GOLD. RIGHT,call up the broker and tell him to sell it. You dont have to have it today. Tomarro, well nobody deals with tomarro today in this high leveraged fast paced world. Well you had better forget about today, and focose on tomarro. Otherwise tomarro you will wish was today, when the living was easy.

Rockgrabber

(05/17/2001; 17:32:18 MDT - Msg ID: 53825)

Gold Carry Trade

Mr Gresham

(05/17/2001; 17:37:17 MDT - Msg ID: 53826)

Randy -- Two steps t'other way, please...

May sound cryptic, but ... I'm thinking in terms of emphasis here in the holdings of wealth.

Yours: "Participants in this bullion banking system can certainly expand the amount of gold-denominated credit, but they can't expand the amount of gold metal. And again, only gold metal has the beneficial asset qualities of gold metal. Metal has no counterparty risk. It is nobody else's liability. "

The flight to tangible assets. And the one most people think of now as their safest is: Real Estate. Something like what Will Rogers said of land could be said of gold: "They ain't makin' any more of it." (Well, you know what I mean -- minin' ain't makin'.)

Now, if 100 million Americans had already borrowed to the hilt to hold physical gold, I'd be a mite suspicious joining in with them. Contrarian streak in me, I guess.

But now we're describing here this situation in which, not consumers, but high-power financial entities have _borrowed_ to the hilt (that's what paper gold contracts are) to bet AGAINST gold. Those entities and their influence, put a little kink in the contrarian thinking, IMO, but in all other facets it looks a slam dunk. Can't go no lower. All bad news out. Risk/reward no-brainer, etc. etc.

(A neutral financial bias, to my mind, would be consumers holding fully-paid up real estate. Very rare. Or players shorting POG with their own SAVINGS, not borrowed capital they could even walk away on. Strong hands vs. weak hands.)

Real estate is encumbered in its inflation protection potential. Gold is rocket-fueled! I see that as two steps in the right direction, in our favor.

(And y'know, real estate will probably hold near its own dollar value in the way the monetary/political turmoil will play out. So imagine gold at two steps better!)

Anyway, I mostly meant to point out the contrast between borrowing to HOLD one thing, and borrowing to SHORT the other...

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/17/2001; 17:47:39 MDT - Msg ID: 53827)

Mr Gresham, you make an excellent point in your msg#53826

I say again, "Excellent!" My evening thus begins on a high note, and I thank you, good Sir.

schippi

(05/17/2001; 18:10:19 MDT - Msg ID: 53828)

XAU Wavelet Chart

http://www.SelectSectors.com/xauwavelet.gif Check out this powerful XAU Uptrend in progress
http://www.SelectSectors.com/xauwavelet.gif

R Powell

(05/17/2001; 18:51:02 MDT - Msg ID: 53829)

Jeopardy question

One reason why this current rise in POG will not pan out as another false price breakout.

What does schippi's wavelet chart show??

Thanks for the colorful charts. Cool!!
Rich

auspec

(05/17/2001; 19:19:12 MDT - Msg ID: 53830)

HBM & Cost Of Silver Production

Of course uponroof is correct that "nearly 75% of newly- mined silver comes as a by-product of other metals", so it is difficult to come up with an accurate production cost for silver. On the other hand there are primary producing silver props that will go directly into production with a higher silver price, as well as currently producing primary silver mines. I have seen figures in the past that an average cost for a primary producer would be approx $5.50, this is US as well as many other areas. There will always be rich mines that produce at much lower costs, similar to what used to be FN's Midas Mine in Nevada producing gold at $130/oz{?}.
A company like Silver Standard Resources is in business to accumulate various properties that are not cost effective at this point but will be greatly profitable as POS increases. Leverage. Ross Beatty of Pan American used to collect properties that he bought on the cheap, but would be great productive props at $6. Now if 75% of silver comes from other, mostly base metal sources, and the POS takes off, this will not necessarily transfer into greater silver production from these mines. They are mining zinc or lead or whatever and the silver will still largely be an afterthought, even at higher POS. Supply will be years in catching up with demand.
Primary silver mines are scarce, and thus the market niche for companies like Pan Amerocan and Silver Standard, formed in large part to fill this void. The main point in regards to the cost of silver production is that for an average primary silver mine, they cannot produce silver profitably at current POS! All current sellers, in their folly, are giving away their metal in essence below cost of production. Factor in some higher energy costs into this entire scenario and it shows what it will take to begin to 'balance' this market. Also that silver exploration has been greatly diminished because of the lengthy bear. Bottom line--- It's CHEAP!

uponroof

(05/17/2001; 20:31:09 MDT - Msg ID: 53831)

Blackblade: superconductivity and silver

I have been reading Bush's new Energy Policy and in Chapter 7 there is reference to the old electric power grid.

One of the highlighted reccommendations:

"The NEPD group reccommends that the President direct the Secretary of Energy to expand the Department's research and developement on transmission reliability and superconductivity."

According to 'The American Advisor' today Bush's words were specific in his intentions to implement this technology:

"Now we have the technology to use new wires that can carry a lot more electricity with a lot less loss of electricity."

I have discussed this with some friends who claim the technology is not yet there....but close.

As an energy specialist, do you have any insight on this?

btw-This was discussed on the Nightly Business Report also. They said copper and Aluminum do not cut it any more, so we need superconductor wire, and they showed rolls of wire that very much resembled silver.

Search the web on "superconductor wire" and found this

http://www.amsuper.com/wirefact.htm

Uses Silver alloy matrix. 140 times more condusive than copper.

This is just what Bush wants to do. Show inventive leadership, which saves taxpayer money in the long run.
This will be a bragging point in the next election if he can pull it off.

Adding 20 bucks to the POS is nothing if it means saving billions in energy?

(05/17/2001; 20:40:38 MDT - Msg ID: 53832)

Lawrence W. Reed

http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=680&FS=Greenspan+or+Gold%3F
From the article;

"Alan Greenspan has again lowered the price of short-term credit
(the interest rate that he controls) in an effort to keep the
economy from falling into recession. Rather than speculate on
whether this will work, I'd like to raise a different set of
questions.

"What is it about our monetary system that permits Greenspan and a handful
of others to make such momentous decisions? In a free market, prices are
determined by the voluntary actions of individuals who buy and sell. Errors
in such a system tend to be self-correcting.

"Why is money treated differently? And how can we know whether Greenspan
is doing the right thing? How can he know?"

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/17/2001; 20:42:13 MDT - Msg ID: 53833)

BH @ # 53740

Thanks for the ANOTHER (THOUGHTS) Post #'s. I now have them saved in my word processor under the title Another Another?

Respectfully,

HBM

megatron

(05/17/2001; 20:49:08 MDT - Msg ID: 53834)

auspec/RPowell

Nicely done. Well thought out Mr.? Auspec.
RPowell; People in the 'know' are speaking with thier money. If you look at the accumulation since Dec. in the TSE Gold index you will see there is an obvious point where 'large' amounts of funds began sneaking in the back door, in order not to alarm anyone. Some group of people knew something in Oct/Dec of 2000. It looks fairly obvious to me now in the chart formations.

Tree in the Forest

(05/17/2001; 21:12:00 MDT - Msg ID: 53835)

Comex gold

Comex June gold open interest rose again today 1256 contracts. OI now hovering around 62,000 contracts for June.

megatron

(05/17/2001; 21:12:44 MDT - Msg ID: 53836)

Silver physics

Wire design for conducting electricity is a very complex subject. Silver has attributes that may or may not make it desirable for certain jobs. Flexibility, melting point, etc I would not call a silver alloy a 'superconductor',possibly 'betterconductor' would be more accurate. If it got cold enough to cause superconductivity to occur, silver profits would be unimportant as we would be dead. Under normal temperatures the silver wire power grid would merely generate a state known as 'superprofitability', which occurs when the two molocules that inhabit the politicians brain join to form the new un-natural element called 'Marketus Interfericus Moronicide' which has a half life of about 1 Kontratief cycle :^}

(05/17/2001; 21:15:35 MDT - Msg ID: 53837)

Jeff Elkins

http://www.lewrockwell.com/elkins/elkins11.html
From the article;

"Rush Limbaugh needs to untie that unused half of his brain and become a real
beacon of liberty. He needs to seriously examine the terrible condition of
personal liberty in this country and try to imagine just where the policies of the
statists, Republicans and Democrats both, are taking us. Wake up Rush. Your
country needs you."

Tree in the Forest

(05/17/2001; 21:18:55 MDT - Msg ID: 53838)

HBM

Thank you for that information on Congessman Crane. In calculating the silver/gold ratio, another factor is the natural occurrence of the two metals in the earth's crust. Don't quote me on this but I think it's about 16:1. I agree that there may be a more favorable ratio to convert silver to gold. I have said before that if silver rockets while gold is in a controlled burn, the CBs may find themselves in a pickle as investors (speculators) move to silver and out of gold. They will have no choice but to let (make) gold run.

Peter Asher

(05/17/2001; 21:24:35 MDT - Msg ID: 53839)

Uponroof

The move precedes the news. <<<
"Now we have the technology to use new wires that can carry a lot more electricity with a lot less loss of electricity."

This was discussed on the Nightly Business Report also. They said copper and Aluminum do not cut it any more, so we need superconductor wire, and they showed rolls of wire that very much resembled silver. >>>>

right AFTER silver hops 4%.

Canuck

(05/17/2001; 21:33:12 MDT - Msg ID: 53840)

Misc.

Notice the last 2 days that London is freaking.

N.Y. is carrying and Asia is rather dull; this is different.

The 'up' days in New York are evident.

Watch the shift boys and girls.

Something brewing large, can the 'gold dudes' suppress? We will know in Another 3 (business) days.

Meanwhile good gold funds rock 30% ( or more) in last couple weeks. Good gold stocks almost double.

Gold is close boys and girls; be careful.

Canuck.

Tree in the Forest

(05/17/2001; 21:35:42 MDT - Msg ID: 53841)

Randy

Your scenario for a meltdown in the market as the price stays the same is a possibility. IMHO Greenspan is probably hoping (planning, manipulating) for this. There's a rub however. As prices on many stocks have fallen, so have the earnings. So much in fact that the PEs went up! P/E is a ratio and as earnings go to zero, the PE goes to infinity no matter how low the price. The only exception is if the price goes to zero too! The earnings on many stocks may go so low, that even if the price stays the same into a hyperinflating dollar, the PEs will actually rise above they're already overinflated value. Hyperinflation of the dollar can only make earnings worse and the result will be a total collapse in the market as stock prices are forced to near zero to reflect a more realistic PE. The possibility of earnings doubling or tripling to match inflation so that the stock price can stay up is realistic only for a very slow adjustment. Hyperinflation is not a slow adjustment and earnings will fall not rise as consumers stop spending. Most stocks are still currently trading at very high PEs in spite of the market drops. It would seem that a downward adjustment in the markets is inevitable even with an inflating dollar. Comments?

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/17/2001; 21:40:07 MDT - Msg ID: 53842)

auspec and uponroof (Cost of Silver Production)

Thanks to both of you.

Also a note to the good Mr. Gresham, "You're going to smile when you read this. That is fine; just don't tell me that you laughed out loud. (my nostrils are flaring as I write this.)(huge grin)

It occurs to me that any company that sells a byproduct and does not allocate a portion of the total production cost to the byproduct is just kidding themselves. In effect the cost of production of the primary product would be overstated and the cost of production of the byproduct would be understated.

Let us assume that the only two products are Gold and Silver and that for every ounce of gold produced one ounce of silver is produced. Then assume that the joint cost of production is $270.00. One more assumption please: let us assume that in the mid-term the POG � POS ratio averages 60:1.

If I were the cost accountant for this company I would allocate the cost between the two products according to some reasonable formula, let's say, the ratio of their selling prices.

59/60th's times $270.00 = $265.50 (cost of production for each ounce of gold)

1/60th times $270.00 = $4.50 (cost of production for each ounce of silver)

Of course I am not a cost accountant. In my early years I was often accused of taking accounting theory too far. In my first job out of college as a junior accountant with a small CPA firm I accrued payroll taxes on accrued payroll. After about 15 minutes of heated discussion with my boss I was told, "Look you do it my or no way." He, my boss, won. Now I am my own boss 30 years later and I still do it his way. His way is wrong, theoretically.

My above logical approach to production cost allocation probably would not fly with "Generally Accepted Accounting Principles", but if some sort of formula is not used to accomplish an allocated cost of production for byproducts then I can only assume the boss, in this case, is not always right, but still the boss. Obviously I have been involved in very little cost accounting and certainly no nothing about metal production costs and the various ratios of the quatities of the by products, (which I would assume vary a good bit from one mining and manufacturing operation to another) but the general idea makes sense, does it not?

On my last job (before I started my own business 15 years ago) I had reported to an internal auditor with Motors Holding Company, Inc., by the name of Ernie Chelland. He made a statement that I will never forget: - "Nothin's free". I find it hard to believe that 75% of the silver produced today has a zero basis (nothing is free, not even silver) just because it is a byproduct.

I am not trying to minimize the information. Just trying to make a point that I think is worth making.

Very respectfully,

HBM

Canuck

(05/17/2001; 21:42:05 MDT - Msg ID: 53843)

Tree in the Forest

The creme of the creme of us plan to 'time' the acceleration of gold (or silver) so that we double our '10-bagger' in the switch of silver-gold, gold-silver.

If your post alludes to the 'switch' you are now 'light-years' 'behind the curve'.

This post is in sincerity, Mr. Tree.

Tree in the Forest

(05/17/2001; 21:44:33 MDT - Msg ID: 53844)

Traders beware!

This would appear to be a very dangerous market for traders. The stock market rise and the gold rise may both be fake. A sharp rise in both to take out the shorts, followed by a sharp drop in both. This would serve to take out the longs in the gold market before it is allowed to run. Traders watch yourself out there.

jinx44

(05/17/2001; 21:45:38 MDT - Msg ID: 53845)

Stirring the pot.

http://www.etherzone.com/carb052401.shtmlIf the Grasshoppers get their bailout, it should be good for gold.

Excerpt from the above link;

KALIFORNIA'S FASCISTS
RIGHT OF EMINENT DOMAIN NAZI STYLE

By: Alan Caruba
On May 11th, the State Treasurer of California, Phil Angelides, let it be known that "in the next few weeks" the fascists elected to represent the people of that state would decide whether or not to seize privately owned power plants in order to survive the soaring summer electricity prices. Gov. Gray Davis, who has emergency powers to take such action, was reported to be "considering" the idea. "This is not a radical notion," said Angelides. "This is a self-preservation notion. What's at stake is the very fiscal survivability of the state of California." No, what's at stake is the right of any state to regulate a business into bankruptcy and then take its assets for its own political survival. The politicians and regulatory bureaucrats of California ignored its growing need for electrical energy, refusing time and again, for two decades to permit the building of new plants for the generation of electricity and the transmission lines required to distributed it. Now these same politicians have the nerve to claim the utilities were "gouging" their customers for electricity they were forced to buy on the spot market. Everything that occurred to the energy producers was the direct result of the legislation passed by California's politicians, all pandering to the environmentalists demanding "alternative sources" and other proposals that totally denied the most basic law of supply and demand. This is why Californians are now paying the highest rates in the history of that state.The legislation that supposedly "deregulated" the utilities actually put an end to any long-term business planning for new power plants, while also ending the need for short-term planning. Electricity would literally be bought one day before its purchase and use by consumers.Writing in the May issue of The Intellectual Activist, Jack Wakeland expressed it this way: "The California economy had become exposed to a risk not seen in America since the nineteenth century, a risk pre-industrial agrarian societies are compelled to accept. The state's high-technology economy had become vulnerable to the weather."The weather! Here's what happens when Mother Nature doesn't cooperate. Hydropower, dependent on rainfall and the melting of snow packs, ceases to be available. That's exactly what happened in Oregon, Washington and Idaho, where the geniuses of California thought they could buy cheap electrical power forever. Then on March 19th temperatures in Los Angeles reached an unseasonable 87 degrees. Everyone turned on their air conditioners. Shortly thereafter, the rolling blackouts began to cut off a half million people at a time in order to protect the system.Shamelessly, on Tuesday, May 14th, the Democratic Party in the person of Dick Gephardt was claiming that "Electricity and gasoline are like air or water because, without them, people can't do the things that all of us, as Americans, take for granted." NO! We are expected to pay for things like the water from our tap, the gasoline from the pump, and the electricity from the socket. They are not free, they have never been free. Someone had to invest millions to produce and distribute these products.The Democrats would rather demagogue this issue than join in solving it. In a particularly ugly way, Gephardt cited the administration's "unprecedented ties to the energy industry" without mentioning the restrictions imposed by Congress and regulatory agencies that have caused the problem. Also unmentioned were Bill Clinton's "unprecedented" ties to illegal Red Chinese donations the Democratic Party received, his raid on the nation's strategic oil reserves, or the Gore tax on gasoline that is still in effect.The Democrats are gambling on one question: Just how dumb are Americans? Here's a partial answer. Citing a poll taken May 7-9, USA Today reported that only 38% favored opening the Alaskan Wildlife Refuge for oil exploration, but 63% favored drilling for natural gas on federal lands. What's the difference? None. Here's where it gets really scary. Fully 91% would support investment in solar or wind production of energy. Remember what happens when Mother Nature doesn't cooperate? Lights don't go on. The only good news from the poll was that at least 83% understood the need to build new power generating plants. Did they, however, understand you have to mine coal or drill for oil and natural gas to power most of these plants? Consider how another state dealt with its need for electrical energy. Texas, the home state of George W. Bush, has an oversupply. The reason for this is that Texas choose not to over-regulate, making it a very good place for providers of electricity to do business. It is expected that by 2002, Texas's surplus could exceed 15,000 megawatts. This estimate is based on the fact that there are 27 new generating stations currently under construction!In California, however, the Greens and the politicians who pandered to them---the same idiots who perpetrated their energy crisis---are letting it be known they intend to seize the assets of privately owned companies. Who would want to invest there? And, as for those people invested in California energy companies, you can kiss their retirement and other plans goodbye!The Bush administration is doing the right thing. Instead of band-aid approaches to the problem, they are telling Americans that this nation with its growing population and growing economy must build more power plants, must give relief to refineries working at 96% of their capacity by encouraging oil companies to build more and expand the capacity of existing ones. To achieve this, however, will require junking a ton of EPA regulations standing in the way.We need to drill in a tiny section of the most God-forsaken area of Alaska where the sun does not shine nine months a year. Why? Because there's an estimated 16 billion barrels of oil there. We must begin to drill offshore of California and offshore of Florida where more oil exists. We must begin to build nuclear plants as well because, glory be, they don't emit any "pollution."When California runs out of money to buy electricity, it will become just another third-world nation where no one knows when the electricity will be turned on or off. This is what happens when people listen to the torrent of lies about "pollution" caused by the use of "fossil fuels" and dependency on "alternative energy sources" that are so costly and ineffective as to be useless. When this nation deregulates energy production and distribution, we will have MORE energy. Texas is proof of that. It's called "free market principles" and Capitalism. It is the only way to avoid a worsening California crisis and the fascist response being proposed to "solve" it.

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/17/2001; 21:46:18 MDT - Msg ID: 53846)

Tree in the Forest @ # 53841 (Astute)

That was quite a point!

Very respectfully,

HBM

uponroof

(05/17/2001; 21:52:21 MDT - Msg ID: 53847)

megatron

Thanks for the facts. Your melting point and flexibility factors are well taken. Should have known you were the electrical expert with a name like megatron. :o)

As for the politics of it....Bush is on record now talking up superconductivity. Is it a phoney political ploy with hollow meaning which sounds good, or is it for real? I don't think Bush needs the PR right now, and he could be sincere. While the experts decide, let us hope the POS benefits.

Peter Asher. Thanks for pointing that out. 20 cents in 2 days is not too shabby if you want to consider the news was out to insiders a few days ago.

Tree in the Forest

(05/17/2001; 21:55:02 MDT - Msg ID: 53848)

Golden Dreams

http://community.webshots.com/photo/11201131/11201515XTTNgOXUaVI don't think this one will float too good. It's a rear view but that's OK, it's probably all you'll ever see!

Black Blade

(05/17/2001; 21:58:29 MDT - Msg ID: 53849)

RE: uponroof and copper-silver alloy wire

I had some email correspondence with an old friend on this subject a couple of months ago. He works in the distribution of copper products for a major copper producer. He brought up this very subject about a copper-silver alloy wire/cable. There is apparently a decent increase in efficiency for electrical transmission. I had posted a brief description of the increased orders they had received for this product. I know that silver solder has been used because of the increased efficiency for electrical contacts in some products. I haven't heard back from this individual for a while, however, I seem to recall that the efficiency gains could eventually recover the additional costs incurred. I must admit, that is an interesting prospect. If there is a big push to use "super-conductive" wire/cable for electrical transmission and if inventories of silver are as low as Ted Butler contends, then it may be a just a lot of wishful thinking as the price of silver would rocket so high that I am not sure if there would be cost benefits. The idea does appear to be intriguing enough though. On a smaller scale there appears to be a lot of copper-silver alloy demand for electrical products. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Tree in the Forest

(05/17/2001; 22:00:08 MDT - Msg ID: 53850)

Canuck

Gee Canuck, I'm trying to keep up! I'll think you'll be the one behind me once I get my Golden Dream!

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/17/2001; 22:02:33 MDT - Msg ID: 53851)

Canuck @ # 53840

Sir Canuck

I'm not sure but I think the London Market opens at 2:00 AM Branson time. Wish I could stay awake for it. I did notice the change in pattern which you so aptly described.

Off to sleep. It has been easier sleeping lately with a bit more silver tucked in alongside the gold.

HBM

uponroof

(05/17/2001; 22:11:29 MDT - Msg ID: 53852)

Blake Blade

Many thanks. Your information on involvment prior is much appreciated.

While I don't expect Bush to issue a mandate to all states tommorrow.....blackouts are blackouts and must be eliminated eventually. Thanks again. It's late here. g'nite.

Black Blade

(05/17/2001; 22:19:06 MDT - Msg ID: 53853)

RE: Jinx44

That article is interesting and it also illustrates the conflict between the states of California and Texas. Der Kommissar Gray Davis has been lambasting the state of Texas because it is the home base of several power companies. Texas has not been impacted as badly as the state of California during this energy crisis. Why? Simple answer is that California simply ignored the obvious impending problems of the energy crisis until it was too late (Grasshopperism). Texas on the other hand had built several power plants and did continuous exploration and development of hydrocarbons to fuel these new facilities as the energy crisis loomed (Antism). California is a part of the Western Grid that relies on an interconnected transmission system that ties in several western states. The Eastern states are tied into the Eastern Grid. Then there's Texas - that's right - Texas has it's own grid - the Texas Grid. They are self sufficient and rely on no one else to supply energy. They don't cry, beg, whimper and complain about how stupid they were to not see the obvious big energy picture.

As far as Dick Gephardt and Tom Daschle are concerned, they are just posturing as they are emerging as the Dems most likely presidential candidates for the 2004 elections. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/17/2001; 22:20:59 MDT - Msg ID: 53854)

RE: Jinx44

Black Blade

(05/17/2001; 22:28:41 MDT - Msg ID: 53855)

Of Golden Dreams - Tree and Canuck

http://bigtexas.com/dmc/gold/When I make my big score we can show off our "Golden Dreams" for real. This picture shows several angles. Cheers!

Black Blade

(05/17/2001; 22:33:23 MDT - Msg ID: 53856)

24K Gold Plated DeLorean

http://www.bigtexas.com/dmc/index.htmlYet another Golden Dream realized. Alas, it's not mine. I do understand that John DeLorean put the rebate in a suitcase in the trunk. I also heard that these cars would suck up the white lines off the asphalt too ;-)

Carl H

(05/17/2001; 22:34:52 MDT - Msg ID: 53857)

Silver, Superconductors, and Boondoggles

Here are some clarifications about silver and superconductors that might put Bush's comments in perspective.

There are two ways to reduce losses in transmission lines, increase the size of the conductor, or change the type of conductor to reduce the resistance of the wire.

To put the loss that we are talking about in perspective, a large (500KV) transmission line that is 600 miles long will have a loss of around 5%. The large transformers at each end of the line have a loss of around 0.3%. Such a line consists of 9 conductors each of which is aluminum over a steel core (for strength). Each conductor is about 3" in diameter.

To my knowledge, silver is the best conductor at ambient temperatures. (There is work to create polymers that will have higher conductivity, but I am not aware of any successess in this area yet.) Transmission lines will never be built out of silver, simply because there is not enough silver in world. These transmission lines typically consist of 9 conductors each one of which is about 3 inches in diameter. To construct one line 600 miles long would take on the order of 4 Billion Oz of silver.

I should note here that there are some effects of alloying metals that are helpful to conductivity, for example, adding 2% copper to aluminum helps the conductivity more than what would be expected from a linear interpolation between the two metals. I would guess that this has already been done for the conductors used in transmission lines. I do not know if silver has a similar effect when used in alloys.

Regarding superconductors -- superconducting is when the electrical resistance of a material is zero. For this to happen, the material must be capable of superconducing and be cooled to a very cold temperature. Currently the highest temperature that a superconductor has been observed to operate at is about -173C which is a bit above the temperature of liquid nitrogen. They still have a long way to go to get to ambient temperature which is typically about 30C. In addition, even if they can make the material, it may not be suitable for deployment in an outdoor enviroment for several reasons. So I doubt we will ever see superconducing transmission lines. However, it is possible that we will see the use of superconductors in large transformers. In these transformers the superconductor would reduce the 0.3% loss (but not eliminate it because not all of it is due to resistive losses in the windings). If superconductors that needed refridgeration were used, then there would be energy lost to the refridgeration units. So, even if superconductors are used here, it will not be worth writing home about.

So, in summary:
1. I sincerely doubt that silver will play a role in improving transmission lines.
2. I belive Superconductors for transmission lines are a Boondoggle. (It will, however, keep some professors and graduate students employed -- which may not be a bad thing.)
3. The only practical way to reduce transmission line loss is to use more or bigger conductors to decrease the resistance (the practicality of this depends on the price of electricity and the prices of aluminum and steel).

NOTE: Although I have a Ph.D. Electrical Engineering, my speciality was transistor simulation, so I am a bit out of my area here. I have, however, discussed this with another engineer who has worked in the power industry for many years. In particular, I verified some of the loss numbers with him.

Turnaround

(05/17/2001; 22:44:19 MDT - Msg ID: 53858)

one day at camp

Mr Gresham (05/17/01; 15:09:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 53815)

Sir Turnaround: Brilliant play last night!: "There is nothing wrong with your television set. "

Well, you had to go and encourage it. Maybe you enjoy camp. Here are some science fiction movies you might want to catch-

"Invasion of the Gold Snatchers"
An alien race of bloodsuckers from Planet Socialia invades the trilateral countries, their tractor beams vacuum up everybody's gold-money. The aliens deploy their mindwipe ray gun, turning the lower classes into paper-pushing slave 'droids for the New World Order. The existence of gold is forgotten. Permanent global war ensues.
(An oldie but a goodie.)

"Day of the Triffins"
A blast of toxic Keynesian radiation blinds the population. Plants get up and start stumbling around in the darkness. When they wake up the next morning, nobody knows how to manufacture anything and the plants are all gone.

"Frankenspan"
A dead philosopher-economist is re-animated using body parts from Keynes, FDR, etc. The speech centers were not successful resuscitated, resulting in a steady burble of non-productive technobabble. He meets a beautiful spinmeisteress, they are last seen down at the lake blowing bubbles together.

"2001: A Fiat-Currency Odyssey"
Scientists discover a bubbly monolith is about to engulf the Earth. Electronic signals are detected emanating from it, beaming dollars into deep pockets on Wall Street.
The FRS Defaultnought is dispatched to investigate, her nuclear-powered bilge pumps throttle up to warp 16. The onboard computer goes insane when all the extra zeros cause a stack overflow. A black hole lies dead ahead.
(Now playing in theaters everywhere.)

SHIFTY

(05/17/2001; 22:53:34 MDT - Msg ID: 53859)

Tree in the Forest

Golden DreamsSir Tree:: Very nice choice . Glad to see another Golden Dream link.

$hifty

megatron

(05/17/2001; 22:56:25 MDT - Msg ID: 53860)

CarlH

Possibly coating the copper with a layer of silver/nickel alloy could bring an improvement. I don't know. Many kind of tricks have been tried, especially in the audio industry.
There are wire types that do work 'better'. Some even sound 'better' if you can believe that. This whole plan is just another rationalization for the government to interfere in the operation of the economy.

Black Blade

(05/17/2001; 23:25:21 MDT - Msg ID: 53861)

Greenspan or Gold?

http://www.vonmises.org/fullstory.asp?control=680&FS=Greenspan%2Bor%2BGold%3F
Snippit:

Under a free-market system of money management, such decisions are left to the market, not to monetary central planners. We once had such a system, and it was called the gold standard. But in a step-by-step process over the course of the twentieth century, the U.S. government gradually departed from any direct link between its paper dollars and gold.

Black Blade: Nice short refresher.

Gandalf the White

(05/18/2001; 00:21:59 MDT - Msg ID: 53862)

Paint them the SAME COLOR !!

Barrick to present at Goldman Sachs Metals and Mining Forum
TORONTO, May 17 /CNW/ - John Carrington, Vice-Chairman and Chief Operating Officer of Barrick Gold Corporation will speak on the Company's strength and future outlook at 2:30 pm on Monday, May 21st at the Goldman Sachs Metals and Mining Forum in Palm Beach, Florida. The presentation will be available on Barrick's website
++++++++++
<;-) Most likely the ONLY company that GS OWNS outright!!

View Yesterday's Discussion.

Strad Master

(05/18/2001; 00:27:07 MDT - Msg ID: 53863)

Thanks!

(What a mess!)Enormous thanks to all those who posted well-wishes on the birth of Eva Gabriella. Unfortunately, due to massive technichal problems due to my DSL provider going bankrupt, I've been offline for two days and am now using a temporary (unbelievably S.....L......O......W) dailup service until I can get a new DSL provider. Undoubtedly, I missed a lot of the postings coming my way. When I get a chance ( and a faster modem) I'll go back ane review and fully absorb all the kind words.

This relates to gold: My recent experience with technology leads me to conclude that both the technology itself and the people who provide it are extremely fragile. Any disruption and the whole thing comes crashing down. I cannot imagine what a full-blown energy/blackout crisis will do to the economy of California and, by extension, the rest of the country. Just in my little microcosom, if I were dependent on the net for the survival of my business, I'd be out on the street rattling a tin cup by now. The much vaunted new, technology-based economy is definitely not what it's cracked up to be. It just goes to prove again that in the long run it is the old solid and reliable things (like gold or snail mail) that one can depend on.

Baby update: both Eva and Mrs.Strad are doing fine. She sleeps well (more or less through the night), which is a big improvement over the previous three little Strads.) On the night she came home from the hospital (Monday) we had guests over for dinner and on Tuesday morning Mrs. Strad and the four little fiddles all went to the zoo. Pretty amazing! I wish I could post a photo, but I don't know how to do that - especially now, with this slow modem. Anyhow, thanks again to one and all for the good wishes.

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/18/2001; 01:01:27 MDT - Msg ID: 53864)

Master Strad-man

"I wish I could post a photo, but I don't know how to do that - especially now, with this slow modem."
----
I might have a trick or two up my sleeve. Attach your favoritie shot (jpeg or gif) to an e-mail directed at Master Site-man (whoever that is ) and I'll get it posted as a forum link. With only one candle burning, we could use so much extra radiance around this here Tower!

Netking

(05/18/2001; 01:14:30 MDT - Msg ID: 53865)

@Hill Billy Mitchell/Ag-All - Gold/Silver Ratio

Hill Billy Mitchell(53789)- Well thought out comment Sir HBM, great.
I believe silver will go up sooner, faster and further than gold.The problem is, you can't discuss silver as being a nation's wealth; there's no national pot, and it's at a valuation in the neighbourhood of 1/60th of gold. Ted says silver can go up to $100/oz easy...or a factor of 20...gold could explode by a factor of 10 to 94.

Well, if gold goes up to 25K, and silver goes with it, but to 1/5 ratio to restore the imbalance and renew the above ground supply, then can we see $5,000/oz silver? A factor of 1000? Silver is found in the ground at a 6:1 (to answer an earlier question on this) over gold, or up to 10:1 in history.

How's this for a price target; From 1970 to 1980 gold went from $35 to $850, when gold was 7 times undervalued.This was an increase of a factor of 25 times. 25/7 = 3.5 times above the undervaluation mark...$35 x 3.5 x 7 = $850 Follow me there? So, "IF" gold is now undervalued by a factor of 94, can we see it go up in the next ten years by a factor 3.5 times the 94? or $270 x 3.5 x 94 = $88,000/oz.? And silver 1/5th of that? Or $17,600/oz?

But really, if you had all the silver you needed, and paper was burning up at a rate to produce such an exchange rate,would you convert all your silver holdings and be content to hold electronic credits again? I think that's the real issue, not the price. Think of this:If you were to move to Mexico, would you be willing to exchange all your dollar savings so that you could hold everything in the form of electronic bank credits of pesos? No? Then why hold dollars today at all when you can hold gold or silver?

I think I'd convert silver to gold if the ratio went much above 1/5th the value of gold. I think it can hit higher than that, even reaching parity(yes I'm serious)a 1:1 ratio for a brief time to rebalance above ground supplies,but not for the long term, gold is just more scarce.

I will certainly expect silver to be valued greater in the days ahead than the historic 1/15th of gold on average.
regards NetKing

JMB

(05/18/2001; 07:31:39 MDT - Msg ID: 53866)

CARL H

Hey Doc, your #53857 yesterday is a great example of why USAGold is kinda special. I really didn't understand everything you were talking about but it sure was interesting. Thanks.

schippi

(05/18/2001; 07:44:21 MDT - Msg ID: 53867)

Gold 101

http://www.SelectSectors.com/xauwavelet.gifSelect Gold (FSAGX) is a very good market predictor for the Gold stock direction.
So even if you hate Mutual Funds or FSAGX pay attention to what it is telling us.
For the past Three weeks it has outperformed ALL the other 39 sectors in this family.
This ranks as a historical move in that we have not seen this in many years.
These 40 sectors act as a proxy for the entire Market and this result is not an
opinion but a fact ( Do the math) and cannot be brushed aside.
Given this strong trend I am disappointed to find some of our Big posters
announcing they sold the day before the BOE Gold auction and still others
selling yesterday because of this big runup. I think you have to be a little Nuts
to try and time the Market in the presence of such a strong trend. Yes, the POG
is going up too fast, yes we are going to have a sharp local correction, but
for most of us, the best course of action is not to fight this trend.

uponroof

(05/18/2001; 07:59:53 MDT - Msg ID: 53868)

Carl H.....silver and superconductivity

Good Morning, Thanks for that detailed electrical analysis. From what your saying there is a lack of reality somewhere, which is not unusual for the political arena. Is Bush spinning high tech solutions which aren't really there? Why? To appear cutting edge, exausting all options for public display? Perhaps.

Is it possible that there is some other application in transmission that silver could serve? Something not yet widely known? Or perhaps there is another material besides silver he is referring to? So many questions.

I prefer to believe he is merely stretching the truth and that some sort of variation of his report (superconductive applications) will actually, eventually occurr. The question then being is the truth at the friendly neighborhood chiropractor or in a dark dungeon on 'the rack'. Thanks again.

Al Fulchino

(05/18/2001; 08:11:01 MDT - Msg ID: 53869)

escpaethe matrix

Nice handle. And thanks for the reply. I hope to respond soon. I am just swamped with work right now. Thanks again

Camel

(05/18/2001; 09:50:33 MDT - Msg ID: 53870)

"End game" for domestic oil

Just a quick note on the hybrid vehicle. Average milage for the fleet of American vehicles is said to be about 24mpg. The hybrid vehicle is said to deliver anywhere from 50 to 80 mpg depending on who you talk to. For arguments sake lets say it will get 50 mpg.

It does not take a great deal of expertise to see where I am trying to go with these figures. If everyone were driving a hybrid vehicle this country could cut the amount of gasoline it uses in half. Of course there will always be a need some more powerful vehicles, big trucks, heavy machinery,etc, but for the average driver zipping around town or taking a vacation this should be O.K.

As far as the economics for the individual, with gasoline priced at $2 per gallon a person driving a hybrid vehicle could drive 50 miles for $2, or 10,000 miles for $400 as compared to $800 for a regular vehicle, a savings of $400 every 10,000 miles.

Oil analyst Colin Campbell has predicted that non- OPEC oil production will peak in the year 2001 as the big North Sea and Mexican fields go into decline. OPEC oil production is predicted to begin declining around 2008 but overall world oil production will continue to increase untill then as OPEC adds capasity to compensate for the declines elsewhere.

If my reading of Campbell is correct then the "end game" for domestic oil drilling would occur something like this. A great armada a of drilling rigs will be assembeled over a period of several years focusing on the deeper waters in the Gulf of Mexico , Florida, and the Arctic. Substantial amounts of oil will be discovered causing a brief upturn in the long term trend of declining domestic oil production..At some point however the amounts of new oil discovered will be overtaken by the "ferocious" depletion rates of existing wells and even though a maximum effort is being made,production rates will again start to decline. More and more wells will be dry holes or only have marginal amounts of oil. Finally there will come a point when it takes more energy to extract the remaining oil than the energy that oil will produce and the whole endeavor will grind to a halt.

This is why Cheney's original statements were so bizzare. If the Campbell scenario is correct then it is basically a lost cause to try to dramatically increase domestic production of oil, and an fact conservation is the only possible way to significantly extend the time line for our economy .This is not to say that there shouldn't be more drilling, only that by far the greater gains will be made through increasing fuel efficiancy of the fleet of American cars

Statements by Cheney to the effect that we must increase oil production to maintain our standard of living and nay-saying conservation are oil industry code words for--------"Lets sabotage the development of a fuel efficiant vehicle so we can suck the last drop of blood out of veins of the American people." .----- This is the way it has been now for the last 50 years ever since the Volkswagon came out in the 1950s. Throughout this whole time we have been given nothing but variations of these same old platitudes.

Just follow the money. There is only one group in this society that would suffer from energy conservation and that is the oil industry because it will cut into their profits. Its just as simple as that.

Let me say very emphatically however that the oil industry is not to blame for all our problems, certainly not anyone that works in the industry. The saying that "We have met the enemy, and he is us" applies so perfectly to this situation. Our entire society and economoic system has been constructed around the automobile and the end is now "at hand". What took nature tens of millions of years to create has been mindlessly used up in the brief span of 100 years, literally in the blink of an eye.

I personally don't have much problem with drilling in the arctic. In just a very few years the oil will be used up . the sites frozen over ,abandoned and returned to the carribu. What they are not mentioning however are the pipelines that will be built to carry out the new gas. I just can't take much pleasure in new gas pipelines built along the McKennzie River Valley.Much of those lands in the far north remain just as they were 500 years ago before Columbus landed on this continent. Maybe its a neceessary evil but I can't take any pleasure in it. Sorry , but thats just the way I feel about it.

This morning as I had my morning coffie in a quaint little roadside cafe and watched the mind numbing wall of cars, 12 lanes across,bumper to bumper, more numerous than the buffalo ever was, stretching endlesly in either direction , from sun-up to the very early hours of the morning, as far as the eye can see, I recalled a proposal that has been floating around for a long time , backed by the likes of Ted Turner, to try to let the buffalo run again.

When the ancient waters of great Ogalala Aquifer have finally been pumped dry and the little farming towns of the midwest dry up and blow away ,a network of land can be stitched together from the Canadian border to the Texas panhandle, the heards can be assembled from their various locals and the great migration will be seen again . I think I could take some pleasure in that.

JMB

(05/18/2001; 09:57:54 MDT - Msg ID: 53871)

CHRIS POWELL

What can you tell us about Mr. Jonathan Stoner? His article at the Cafe is a real grabber. TIA

Carl H

(05/18/2001; 10:04:18 MDT - Msg ID: 53872)

uponroof: Re Transmission Lines

I think that the only practical use for silver in transmission lines would be in the form of an alloy with aluminum or copper IF the silver gives a disproportinate increase in conductivity. This effect does exist in some other alloys, but I don't know if it applies to Al/Ag or Cu/Ag alloys.

Other materials is an interesting point -- if high conductivity polymers are developed, they might be a viable candidate to replace the aluminium in the transmission lines. (The steel core would probably still be required for mechanical strength.) Keep in mind that the polymer would not only have to have high conductivity, but might have to have other properties for outdoor use.

One comment I'll add here is that I focused on the large transmission lines and their associated transformers because if these exotic solutions are cost effective anywhere, it will be in these places first.

Regarding Bush and the energy crisis -- the energy crisis has essentially caused the price of energy to swing from being set by the cost of production to the price someone is willing to pay for it (just wait until this happens to Silver!!!). This allows the energy producers to reap huge profits. Weren't energy producers large supporters of Bush? If he fixes the problem, these profits will decrease. It makes me wonder how motivated he is to fix the problem. I suspect this is why he proposes unworkable technologies (superconductors) and solutions that are not politically viable (nuclear power).

Did his plan mention anything about renewable energy sources?

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/18/2001; 10:08:49 MDT - Msg ID: 53873)

Positive gold article from TheStreet.com, quotes John Hathaway

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/aarontaskfree/1431724.htmlThe article says:

-----there's no denying the perception that gold as an inflation hedge remains intact. Furthermore, it's hard to knock the group's performance this year. After yesterday's 5.9% rally, the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold & Silver Index is up 19.7% year to date, far outperforming major equity proxies.-------

Mr. Hathaway then gives his thoughts, including these:

"What's happening here is the Fed is lowering rates with a sense of urgency [and] this latest reduction didn't have any suggestion they were done. They're desperately trying to get the economy going and the market up, and in the process are lowering real interest rates, [creating] a good macro backdrop for these shares and the metal."

Carl H

(05/18/2001; 10:29:47 MDT - Msg ID: 53874)

Thought Regarding Forward Sales

I had an interesting thought about forward sales by the mining companies.

Suppose the forward sales are to the cabal who in turn resells the gold on the spot market. This provides the miners with cash to keep them producing while keeping the price of gold down. Yes, they would take a loss on the gold, but that loss would probably be small compared to the perceived benefits associated with killing the competition.

To put this in perspective, suppose that they did this for 1000tons of gold per year at a loss of 100/oz. This would only amount to 3.2 Billion dollars. The FED routinely injects more than this into the monetary system IN A DAY. $3.2 Billion is nothing to them.

Makes me think that forward sales are something that shareholders should strenuously object to.

Max Rabbitz

(05/18/2001; 10:39:07 MDT - Msg ID: 53875)

Gold breaks past $275!

Somebody not minding the store or what?

uponroof

(05/18/2001; 10:43:46 MDT - Msg ID: 53876)

SPIKE

POG touching 278. Multiple houses, fund managers and investment services, banks (UBS Warburg) were set to buy above 275. They're doin it right now. NICE!

SHIFTY

(05/18/2001; 10:51:43 MDT - Msg ID: 53877)

WOW

Gold UP UP AND AWAYCheck out golden Rocket Ship

auspec

(05/18/2001; 10:52:16 MDT - Msg ID: 53878)

Black Gold Revisited-- Buy The Numbers??

deepblacklies.co.ukThis post was written in response to ongoing Black Gold discussions at another Forum, Eagle Ranch. The perspective on this issue is important, if for no other reason than to throw stones at the 'official' supply #s pabulum. Thus this repost for further thought on USAGOLD Forum.

In David Guyatt's book "The Secret Gold Treaty" he throws out figures for world gold supply that are in fact multiples of the commonly accepted "official� amounts of approx 140,000 tons. These projections by David G go as high as 1,000,000 tons and become a stumbling block for many who find this impossible to fathom as even historically or technologically possible. This essay will, once again, demonstrate why the �official� gold supply #s are equally as difficult to accept.
In an exercise of �possibility thinking� let's look at what has happened with gold mining during the last 100 years and then project backwards through the centuries for comparative purposes.
I will use the figures listed by rc for "modern mining" productivity during the last century of 25,000 ton of �official� gold and then expound on that figure. This figure does not include theft of yellow by miners of approx 15% or parallel mining by gampieros. �locals� or whatever you want to call them. I have recently seen reports that current south African mining entities are losing an admitted 15-20% of their production to theft or Mafia like intimidation tactics. There is also the distinct reality of mines operating with dual sets of books and thus hiding lots of their output. So if the official #s are 25,000 tons for the last century they should probably be actually and conservatively over 30,000 tons {maybe 40,000 tons or higher}. OK so far?
Let's use this figure of 30,000 tons per the last 100 years just for the sake of presentation. This is the equivalent of 300 tons per year. Please double check all my math as a mathematician I'm not, but they should be very accurate.
I will present 3 examples of historically higher levels of gold production for number crunching purposes.

1- Let's say for example there were actually 180,000 tons of gold produced over the centuries. This could have been accomplished at 300 tons per year for a period of �only� 600 years. Do you believe 600 out of the last 4000 years could have seen this level of Au production? I can see it. How about 180,000 tons over the entire extended time period of 4000 years? This is only 45 tons per year or 4,500 tons per 100 years. Entirely possible, see follow up commentary.
2- For this example we will approx 600,000 tons of total gold produced over man's time. For 4000 years {again as an estimate} this comes down to 150 tons per year or 15,000 tons per 100 years, Still well below the last century's production.
3- The last example id David Guyatt's most outlandish projection of 1,000,000 tons of total output. For the same 4,000 years this is 250 tons per year or 25,000 tons per 1000 years. This would have required gold to be extracted at a similar rate for the last 40 centuries to what has been accomplished during the last century using modern mining technologies. . This is admittedly hard to fathom.
Before totally dismissing these higher figures outright there are numerous points to consider. For example, does anyone doubt that VAST quantities of gold were found w/o and prior to our vaunted modern mining technologies? What percent of commonly accepted �official� figures were actually extracted using crude techniques as opposed to modern technologies? The largest portion by far, correct? Since crude methods accounts for the greatest portion of official supply now admitted, why can we not extrapolate backwards over many {how many?} centuries to seek much greater possibilities? Are you with me?
The gold currently being extracted is to some degree �left overs�, as the easy pickin surface gold had to logically be taken first. The very richest and most accessible veins, first taken, would allow for very high production #s in early centuries. All miners know that new mines are typically found near historic mine workings. Can you imagine Franco's former Midas mine with its massive gold veins in a near-surface setting? Of course these existed! . A Carlin Trend of near-surface gold? CHINK, CHINK!
Previous "technology" built pyramids which we still cannot comprehend to this day. A little gold extraction should have been simply a minor challenge to them. Ever see King Tut's mask? The Mayas and the Incas had a pretty good thing going also. China and the Orient has 4000 years of advanced culture, mineral rich territory, and incredibly poor or unavailable production records. I have no difficulty whatsoever in believing China Thailand, Malaysia and other regional countries had vast hoards of gold. In fact it seems silly to think otherwise. Do you even begin to believe those that have given us the accepted above ground supply #s would tell us the truth in the first place? Who is it that is trying to desperately control gold in the first place? In these backwards projections we have ONLY gone back 4000 years, is that the totality of every century of gold production? How many centuries should it really be?
Why would people accept the concept of Nazi gold and totally reject the concept of one of the other Axis powers, Japan, doing something similar. Both Germany and Japan were killing, maiming, and PLUNDERING! Do you think all gold is accounted for in the hands of Rothschilds, Rockefellers, Rhodes/Oppenheimers, and the like? How about Japanese trading houses, Russian Czars and successors, House of Saud, or QoE? Ever heard of gold in connection with the CIA, Mafia, Vatican, drug exchanges, weapon deals, the black markets, or the historic gold and opium trade? Not to mention Marcos, Suharto and Lord knows who else. How about the Gold Coast?
Do we really have a clue about total gold activities of LBMA, BIS, Hong Kong, or Dubai? We don't even know the totality and certainty of the US public gold treasure! This is in what is supposed to be the freest and most open government in the world. What does that say about Communist China or the former Soviet Union? We don't even know how much platinum or palladium the Russians have, much less their gold. Do you think Edmund Saffra was torched over official gold? Can we honestly begin to trust the CBs in relation to gold?
Rc has stated how poorly jewelry has been accounted in the official numbers. There are also important rationales for not allowing discovered gold to become �officially� counted. Safety issues, power issues, flexibility issues, as well as outright tax evasion.
I'm trying to get people to expand their vision past the 140,000 tons and to the probabilities of significantly greater amounts of gold supply. Where does all this leave us? I believe the 180,000 figure is the baseline and 200,000 tons is probably a slam-dunk. Am still open minded to considerably higher numbers. David Guyatt is most credible in my opinion, but my mind has yet to accept anything but the possibility of much higher numbers. Gotta show me more proof. Am Au bullish regardless of supply numbers because every action of the Power Elite tells us gold is very special indeed. Even if there were a million tons, if you compare it to the fiat float it is still miniscule. Gold is GOLD, not copper, tin, lead, or zinc, and it will remain the King of Metals until it can be alchemized on the cheap. It is deep within the hearts of man and it is no accident. I also keep saying if the larger amounts of gold are there they don't seem to be very available for reasons that david Guyatt strikes at. Why go to Sri Lanka, Kuwaiit or Ecuador if you're busting at the seams with yellow? On the other hand Alan Greenspan and his ongoing gold bailout may have sources of gold that are hardly imaginable to our neat and tidy gold microcosm. *********Don't try to put these guys in a 140,000 ton box because it is not big enough. They are not without considerable resources, literally!*********
Where should our common ground thoughts lie?
1-The official numbers are totally bogus.
2-NO ONE knows what the total above-ground gold supply really is, certainly not me.
3-There are numerous vested interests that prosper by keeping the actual gold supply #s out of public awareness.
4-Gold trades in �unseen� markets currently, and has throughout history. It will continue to do so.
5-Gold in hand is the purest form of money and seldom leaves a trail of from whence it came. This is a rare and important trait for a medium of exchange!
6-Significant amounts of gold may become available in the future, but only at a much higher premium.

Beyond these personal observations, it is hard to say much more conclusively. I may be dissuaded away from the extreme portions of the Black Gold issues, but these basics are not likely to leave. Looking for clear and direct input from all our mining afficionados, please tell me where I have strayed from truth.
Thanks for your consideration!
auspec

Sierra Madre

(05/18/2001; 10:58:51 MDT - Msg ID: 53879)

Carl H....about losing money on keeping Au down....

All wars cost money, and there is a War on Gold, no question about that! So it would not be surprising to find that there must be losses incurred in suppressing the price of gold. Too much is running on it, to allow it to break loose!
And what's a few billion more electronic blips?

auspec

(05/18/2001; 11:06:22 MDT - Msg ID: 53880)

Linking A Bit More Accurately

http://www.deepblacklies.co.uk.

Gandalf the White

(05/18/2001; 11:07:31 MDT - Msg ID: 53881)

SPOT says "HELLO" to SPIKE !

Golden Dreams may come true !
<;-)

Mr Gresham

(05/18/2001; 11:11:50 MDT - Msg ID: 53882)

Sierra Madre: War, Defectors

I think that observation is part of an overview of FOA's presentations here. He's been telling us that a currency war is brewing/happening. (And like it or not, every American is on the frontlines -- we just happen to be informed ahead of the others.) Casualties, yes. Unpredictable swings of fortune. Gettysburgs, Dunkirks and Bastognes, yes.

He could not predict the timing or exact outcomes, but the general tide of success, he says, is to the Euro over the Dollar. So we watch the tides swing from high ground, hopefully.

My "Who were spikesters of WA?" question was perhaps looking for the idea of early Defectors from the gold-control side. Maybe we're seeing some today?

Who's going to do our "Scottie" quote right?: "...I'm givin' her evr'thing I can, Captain..."

uponroof

(05/18/2001; 11:26:42 MDT - Msg ID: 53883)

Still Climbing......touched 281 now catching breath at 279.

Let's not forget the Bob Chapman (via GATA) 'rumour' earlier this week:

"Our intelligence sources have informed us that Alan Greenspan has given the bullion banks until the end of May to clear up their hedging and outstanding gold derivative positions. Evidentially this process has been going on for some time. Furthermore, Tony Blair will try to make available, at the upcoming British gold auction, additional gold which will go to banks designated by Greenspan. We were also told that AngloGold will sell forward a designated amount of gold to banks also specified by Alan Greenspan. Our source for this intelligence has been very accurate in the past. They also said they thought that gold would break out over $275.00 an ounce by Friday."

Things are different. It's obvious. Whether or not this is accurrate remains to be seen but actions in the PM markets are not what they were a short time ago.....that's for sure.

Tree in the Forest

(05/18/2001; 11:46:23 MDT - Msg ID: 53884)

Fascinating snips from Antal Fekete on the fall of silver

While searching for more info on the silver/gold ratio, I found instead these fascinating snippets from Antal Fekete's "Whither Gold?" The first is about the demise of bi-metallism and the second about the rise of credit gold.

"The demise of bimetallism is an interesting episode in monetary history, yet it is not well understood by authors. Ludwig von Mises writes in Human Action:

In the second part of the nineteenth century more and more governments deliberately turned toward the demonetization of silver . . . The important thing to be remembered is that with every sort of money, demonetization -- i.e., the abandonment of its use as a medium of exchange -- must result in a serious fall of its exchange value. What this practically means has become manifest when in the last ninety years the use of silver as commodity money has been
progressively restricted (op.cit., PP 428-9).

This appears to confuse cause and effect. In reality, the demonetization of silver was not the cause but the effect of the decline in the relative value of silver. Moreover, it was not the governments but the markets that did the demonetizing. Elsewhere in the same book Mises confirms this:
"The emergence of the gold standard was the manifestation of a crushing defeat of the governments and their cherished doctrines. In the seventeenth century the rates at which the English government tariffed the coins overvalued the [gold] guinea with regard to silver and thus made the silver coins disappear. Only those silver coins which were much worn by usage or in any other way defaced or reduced in weight remained in current use; it did not pay to export and to sell them on the bullion market.

Thus England got the gold standard against the intention of its government. Only much later [did] the laws make the de facto gold standard a de jure standard. The government abandoned further fruitless attempts to pump silver into the market and minted silver only as subsidiary coins with a limited legal tender power . . . . . Later in the course of the nineteenth century the double standard resulted in a similar way in France and in the other countries of the Latin Monetary Union in the emergence of de facto gold monometallism. When the drop in the price of silver in the later seventies would automatically have effected the replacement of the de facto gold standard by the de facto silver standard, these governments suspended the [unlimited free] coinage of silver in order to preserve the gold standard (op.cit.,pp 471-2). "

It would be more accurate to allude to government efforts "to pump silver back into the market" -- silver that people were dumping at the doorstep of the mints. It was, of course, not any affection for gold, nor lack of affection for silver, that caused governments to abandon the latter. Governments were silverite by instinct.

Moreover, bimetallism had been a lucrative, if illegitimate, source of revenues to them. They fought a fierce rear-guard action. But at one point they realized that the battle to save bimetallism had been lost as silver no longer had the necessary characteristic of a monetary metal: it no longer had constant marginal utility. Further resistance to market
forces would have meant unsustainable losses. ***The lesson from this historical episode is that the hands of the governments can be forced by the people.*** (emphasis mine) It was the market that brought about the de facto demonetization of silver in the 19th century. The writing is on the wall that it may bring about the demonetization of irredeemable currencies in the 21st."

Me: And if the people can de-monetize silver, they can also re-monetize silver. It was the overvaluation of gold that caused people to dump silver. We see this now in the absurd 60:1 ratio. Over valuation caused by whom? Perhaps hidden forces with an agenda to pursue? Like the creation of enormous quatities of credit-gold? Another snip about sir Christians credit gold:

"As monometallism was gaining ground over bimetallism, there was a great increase in gold prospecting and production. However, a funny thing happened to gold on its way from the mines to the mints. Central banks hijacked it, in order to build a credit-pyramid, up to twenty times as great, upon their increased gold reserve. Without this interference from the banks there would have been no extra demand for marketable goods and, hence, no price increases -- regardless how fast output of new gold may have grown.
The new gold would have entered circulation in coined form. The Haberler-Pigou effect, to be described in the next paragraph, would have prevented any across-the-board price increase. The real cause of price increases in the inflationary episodes of 1896-1921 and 1934-1968 was not the pronounced increase in gold output. It was the unwarranted credit expansion engineered by the central banks that hijacked the gold."

Me: It's those #@$%&! bankers again! With gold out of fashion in jewelry and platinum in fashion, wouldn't it be interesting if silver changed from poor man's gold to poor man's platinum? That would supercharge demand for silver.

Tree in the Forest

(05/18/2001; 12:05:07 MDT - Msg ID: 53885)

Comex gold

"They" are letting gold run and Comex June open interest is up a whopping 5281 contracts now at 67,341. With gold moving up, they're digging a grave for Comex! They've got 800,000+ oz in warehouse stocks much of it spoken for! How are they gonna deliver millions of oz in June? Anyone wanna sell poor Comex some gold at these stupid prices? I wanna see 'em match issuers and stoppers now! Anyone need toilet paper?

aunuggets

(05/18/2001; 12:08:00 MDT - Msg ID: 53886)

YeeeeeeeeeHawwwwwww....... (sorry!)

.Looks like perhaps a $10.00 up day before it's over. How long has it been ? According to some, all we needed today was a break above $275 for the weekend, and then it's up hill from there.

"Loooking GOOD"

Journeyman

(05/18/2001; 12:12:20 MDT - Msg ID: 53887)

Above-ground gold figures @Auspec

Hi Auspec!

Only one problem with _some_ of your observations of above ground gold:

Gold was not widely used for trade until after Rome somewhat standardized it - - - so there wasn't the universal motivation to mine - - - or even collect it - - - until relatively recently (2000 years or so). (While gold was used for jewelry much longer, it's greatest demand was for trade.)

Also the population was much smaller in those days and needed to spend more time producing the necessities, so the large number of personell probably weren't available to do the mining.

I find the rest of your analysis provocative, however.

Regards,
Journeyman

beesting

(05/18/2001; 12:13:39 MDT - Msg ID: 53888)

News from the Mainstream.

Market Update
from Briefing.com
1:35PM: We've seen a slight extension of intraday losses
since the last update. Notably, the June contract on gold is
making a move today following a break through pivotal
resistance at $275.00. The spot price is currently higher by
$5.30 on the day placing the contract at $279.30. Strength in
the commodity is driving gains in gold-related equities as
well.

beesting comments:
Briefing com said earlier today,friday the 18th, was options expiration day,,,could a short squeeze be occuring in physical? And, if you look at the kitco chart it shows The rise in POG was after 12:00ET after the London market closed......A Great Day so far for True Goldhearts.....beesting.

aunuggets

(05/18/2001; 12:15:18 MDT - Msg ID: 53889)

That Didn't Take Long !

$284+ and runningKitco site experiencing a few "burps" from all the hits apparently.

Mr Gresham

(05/18/2001; 12:18:14 MDT - Msg ID: 53890)

Got Rocket Tickets?

I guess now we'll get a rocket launch test to see if there is any chance for passengers to board once in flight...

lamprey_65

(05/18/2001; 12:19:31 MDT - Msg ID: 53891)

Gold Weekly

I'm posting a day early this week, since I'll be out striper fishing tomorrow.

Anyway....

LOOK AT THE POG!

What could I possibly add?! ;-)

Chris Powell

(05/18/2001; 12:20:18 MDT - Msg ID: 53892)

Happy day with more to come

Welcome, friends, to the GATA rally. The
cat is out of the bag and the POG is
breaking free of its chains because
people are finding out gold's true
situation. Without the Howe lawsuit and
the FOMC minutes disclosure, and without
the Durban conference and the mobilization
of South Africa, this would not be
happening, at least not yet.

Canuck

(05/18/2001; 12:24:24 MDT - Msg ID: 53893)

@ Chris Powell

Remember the "..things are quiet statement" a couple days ago.

Was I wrong!!

:)

Leigh

(05/18/2001; 12:25:45 MDT - Msg ID: 53894)

Poor Trail Guide!

He's out fishing today! He's missing the excitement!!

Buena Fe

(05/18/2001; 12:26:37 MDT - Msg ID: 53895)

From the prison to the PALACE in ONE day!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Cheers,
Everyone

Gandalf the White

(05/18/2001; 12:32:15 MDT - Msg ID: 53896)

JUMP Spike, JUMP

The Hobbits see $287.4 on www.thebulliondesk.com
<;-)

Canuck

(05/18/2001; 12:34:30 MDT - Msg ID: 53897)

@ Gandalf

Is that spot?

Please tell us the close big guy!!!

Gandalf the White

(05/18/2001; 12:35:47 MDT - Msg ID: 53898)

Canuck's Question !

SURE is !
<;-)
dropped off a little now --- BUT !

aunuggets

(05/18/2001; 12:38:24 MDT - Msg ID: 53899)

Market Close

Looks like $287.55 (bid) for the close.

Gandalf the White

(05/18/2001; 12:41:53 MDT - Msg ID: 53900)

Closes on SPOT and SPIKE !

thebulliondesk says $286.2
while the kitco $286.15
take your pick !
Does Comex price in nickels ?
NAW
<;-)

aunuggets

(05/18/2001; 12:46:41 MDT - Msg ID: 53901)

Kitco FUBARed ?

Close is ????Kitco showing different prices after the close.

CoBra(too)

(05/18/2001; 13:03:10 MDT - Msg ID: 53902)

"Breakout" of Goldfever!

Hope our gracious host is convinced enough to restart the daily count as after the WA in his daily Market Report, where BTW the latest bunch have been outstanding.

Bob Chapman, GATA and many others but last and not least the team USAGOLD is to be applauded for its tenacity - thank you all for your invaluable input.
Have a Golden Weekend - cb2

Henri

(05/18/2001; 13:13:34 MDT - Msg ID: 53903)

Gold spot spike

Yeah! Looks like things are swinging our way.

Henri

(05/18/2001; 13:17:22 MDT - Msg ID: 53904)

Seeking Quartz crystals

I thought I remembered someone saying they found a bed of quartz. Auspec? Anyway I would like to acquire a fistful of finger-sized lengths of decent quality if anyone knows of a supplier. Nope. not trading gold for them...yet.

R Powell

(05/18/2001; 13:29:23 MDT - Msg ID: 53905)

Two fer day

POG up and the XAU was also up but the lease rates were down just a little. This gives us two out of three.
Rich!! Noboby cares about lease rates when Spot jumps $13.80 in one day!! Silver also up 8.2 cents. Yahoo!
Now the world has two days to notice this before the markets open again overseas.
I'll guess that, if POG can hold (and continue up!), we'll see the lease rates join in the party next week.
Rich

Journeyman

(05/18/2001; 13:31:14 MDT - Msg ID: 53906)

WOW! CNBC has been reading USAGOLD!! @ALL

-Traders don't necessarily know why the price of gold is spiking,
which in bullish for gold in itself. There is some speculation
that perhaps some middle-easterners, with extra petro-dollars on
their hands, are buying gold. Also people have been leasing gold
and selling it onto the market, investing the money elsewhere at
higher interest rates and making money that way. With interest
rates lower, the profitablility of this is lower and perhaps some
of these people are going out onto the market to cover their
short positions. -CNBC, May 18, 2001, 13:35:33

Regards,
Journeyman

Golden Truth

(05/18/2001; 13:37:40 MDT - Msg ID: 53907)

GOLD IS UP,,,,,REALLY UP,,,YAAAHHHHOOOOOOOO :-)))

Gold up $12.65/oz........ and I think I'am going to cry!
Yes I'am so happy I think I will. :-%%%%%%%
"May Gold rain down on all our houses"
G.T

beesting

(05/18/2001; 13:39:21 MDT - Msg ID: 53908)

The Latest from Briefing Com.

Market Update
from Briefing.com
3:00PM: One hour remaining to trade and the indices
continue to look listless. The June contract on gold has truly
taken off at this point bidding up $12.50 (4.6%) intraday to
$286.50. This morning, Briefing.com noted that the Bank of
England had reduced the size of its gold auction to 20 tonnes
this Tuesday from 25 tonnes at the prior 11 auctions. There is
speculation now that the BOE might reduce or eliminate the
sale of its reserves altogether. Gold-related equities are
spiking on price action in the commodity with the XAU is
posting a 5.6% intraday gain

beesting comment:
Quote line shows Gold up $13.80 for the day and Gold stocks are hitting new highs as the U.S. markets are still open at this hour.
Was Robert Chapman right about Alan Greenspan telling the holders of Gold derivitives to "square up their books", because of the Great GATA expose' "attack" aimed at the Gold cabel manipulaters?..... We Watch as Usual Together....beesting.

R Powell

(05/18/2001; 13:40:59 MDT - Msg ID: 53909)

Annuggets

Closing prices,
POG up 13.8 to 287.8
POS up 8.2 to 457.7
I think these are the current contract month (spot) prices but I was so excited I didn't check so these may be June or July contract prices.
What news, if any, sparked this. If no one knows, the interviewed "experts" will say buy orders were triggered or it was a "technical move". This is media speak for " I haven't a clue, man."
Hello, Joe Kirnian of the people's TV stock channel just mentioned Gold. He looked very puzzled. This is fun!
Rich

Peter Asher

(05/18/2001; 13:41:07 MDT - Msg ID: 53910)

Leigh msg#: 53894)

<<<<>>>>

Maybe he went fishing on the bonnie bonnie banks of LBMA or comex {:-)

Journeyman

(05/18/2001; 13:46:23 MDT - Msg ID: 53911)

CNBC has been reading USAGOLD!! (the sequal) @The Stranger, ALL

-Kudlow says there isn't any infation because gold hasn't budged,
but now you see it move. You can cut the skepticism over gold
with a knife, but there it is. What if the dollar is weakening
and gold is showing it. You can't ignore gold when it starts to
move. -Ted David & Joe Kernan, CNBC, May 18, 2001, 15:45:26

Regards,
Journeyman

Henri

(05/18/2001; 13:49:29 MDT - Msg ID: 53912)

Trail Guide

Now your comment that the Gold stocks will first start up but then be stymied as govts levy heavy production taxes has me concerned and thinking about selling into the rally.

I still don't understand why this has to be the way it comes down. The governments can't stand to see shareholders bank some taxable coin? Doesn't seem to make sense if gold is truly to be set free. If production is to be shackled that is a bond that needs to be severed if gold producing countries are to prosper. ...yes, I WOULD like to have my cake and eat it too. Wah!

Also,please explain your comment that seems to say that the escrow of gold as collateral for low interest rate secured loans should not be allowed. If the loan is in the form of a floating fiat credit line marked to the "free-gold market" price of fiat daily (in gold terms) what harm does this do to free-gold? Surely it is not in the same category as leased gold that is resold and not able to be paid back, or like forward sales or outright large block (CB) sales.

If the escrow arrangement forbids the interim leasing, sale, or any other encumbrance of the gold while in escrow, why should this type of arrangement adversely affect the free trading of gold? Is it because it allows gold to be used without its being brought out "on-the-road" so to speak? Used without a concommitant transfer of ownership?

Is it because it becomes a visible asset which govts would want to levy a tax upon merely for its possession? I can see why this woould be necessary if the asset were a continually inflating fiat instrument which when held out of the mainstream recycling/credit expansion environment causes "imbalances". But gold? Why is this a problem?

Carl H

(05/18/2001; 13:57:28 MDT - Msg ID: 53913)

Perhaps too soon to rejoice.

Although I am quite pleased about today, I would like to point out that the cabal KNEW this was going to happen. Remember the post from a few days ago via GATA that Greenspan warned at the BIS meeting last weekend that gold would pass $275 by friday. Also, there seemed to be an absence of news about the spike today.

From this, I conclude that gold is not yet free of the cabal. We don't want gold to end up stuck at $289 or somthing again. We must PRESS THE ATTACK on all fronts until we break the cabal. I would urge everyone to do the following:

1. Make the time to write your congressmen, or better still, confront them during town meetings. GATA has provided material to support this effort.
2. Support GATA financially as you are able.
3. Tell the sheeple what is going on. Most of them will buy if they see something going up.
4. Buy gold, particularly from the host of this wonderful site.

beesting

(05/18/2001; 14:00:49 MDT - Msg ID: 53914)

Electronic Payment Systems Speech by Alan Greenspan April 10,2000

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2000/20000410.htm Sir Journeyman,
Just recieved this by e-mail concerning electronic-Gold and electronic payment systems.....The Future is Here!!!....beesting.

auspec

(05/18/2001; 14:03:47 MDT - Msg ID: 53915)

Rules Are Made To Be Broken

So much for the $2 rule in regards to gold and not being allowed to generate any excitement, at the end of the week no less!
Where will the next battle line be drawn for POG, as it surely will be?? How about $300? Enjoy the uplift, it's been a while. Congrats to the stalwarts on a nice awakening call.

VanRip

(05/18/2001; 14:56:50 MDT - Msg ID: 53916)

Randy, ALL

Ted Butler had the following to say on another board in response to someone's question to him about the LBMA. I too have wondered about the LBMA and its volume and price statistics. What do you think about it?
Many thanks.

(snip)

<<< We have discussed this issue before, but let me answer again. I assume, of course, you are refering to my repeated statements that the LBMA is a fraud, and their volume figures are not to be relied upon. I have several reasons for making such a statement. I think everyone should go to the LBMA web site, and spend some time on their own in reviewing the information.

First, common sense should tell you there is something wrong, when a market that claims to trade many times the volume of the world's largest exchange, the COMEX, has almost no influence on price. 99% of the time, the price of gold and silver only move when COMEX is open, or an hour or so before COMEX is open, and there is volume trading in New York. How could that possibly be? How could the purported "low volume" market control price influence 99% of the time? How could the toy poodle consistently beat the Rottwieller? I say because the Rottweiller is a fiction, a curtain in front of a scam.

We all assume the LBMA is some type of centuries-old respectable organization. Nonsense. It was formed in 1987, by the Bank of England ( real straight shooters in the metal world ) . It's run by AIG, Goldie and Chase. If you , or anyone thinks differently, speak up. Their volume figures are unaudited and preposterous in number. I think they got the original idea for the LBMA from the movie, "The Wizzard of Oz".>>>

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/18/2001; 15:06:50 MDT - Msg ID: 53917)

My Monthly Report -- a Must Read: Gold and the U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services--March 2001

Today's release of trade data from the Department of Commerce revealed our trade deficit climbed by $4.3 billion, the largest ever monthly amount.

Compared to February, March exports fell by $0.9 billion, totaling $89.5 billion.

Imports totaled $120.6 billion, an increase of $3.4 billion, resulting in an overall goods and services deficit of $31.2 billion.

Here's the political side of the issue according to an Associated Press report:

------America's continuing trade problems represent a political challenge for President Bush, who is trying to overcome congressional resistance to granting him the negotiating authority he needs to strike a new free trade agreement with all the democratic nations in the Western Hemisphere, as well as to launch a new round of global trade talks.
+
While the Bush administration argues that American companies have no choice but to compete in the global economy, critics contend that lowering trade barriers subjects American workers to unfair competition from low-wage countries with lax environmental standards. To support their case, the critics point to soaring trade deficits including last year's all-time high of $368.9 billion, up 39 percent from 1999.------

Isn't it amazing how such a fundamental concept as free trade and open competition can get bogged down in a political process? Hopefully these "critics" will take a step back and try to see the bigger picture. In addition to the polls, people can vote with their feet and with their wallet. I cannot imagine a more powerful and equitable human force than that.

GOLD�S CONTINUING FLIGHT FROM THE STATES

Speaking of voting with ones wallet, the rest of the world continues to avail itself of our collective national apathy toward holding gold.

We imported only $177 million in gold (21 tonnes) during the month of March.

By contrast, the rest of the world upped the gold export demand upon us to claim $630 million (75 tonnes) from our mines and our matresses (so to speak). Read on.

These figures indicate a net outflow of gold from the United States of approximately 54 tonnes. At this monthly rate, our annual pace of net gold loss is nearly 650 tonnes, whereas our annual production supply from domestic mining is only approximately 350 tonnes. The balance must come out of past accumulated production. Let's call it "savings". Instead of gathering more gold while it is cheap, as a nation we are effectively spending it as partial payment for our bloated imports.

Intuitively, would you expect this richest nation on Earth to be a net "User" or a net "Loser" of gold? And yet the facts speak for themselves. Clearly, the other nations are seizing this opportunity. It is likely that one day this gold will be made available to flow back to us, but only when the new owners feel it has risen to a more proper valuation.

Final thought on trade. If our March trade deficit ($31.2 billion) were to have been fully funded with payment in gold at the current street price, in addition to the 75 tonnes that we actually exported, we would have had to export an additional 3,690 tonnes. At these prices, in only ONE month nearly half of the official gold holdings of the United States would be exhausted in an effort to balance our shortfall in international trade of goods and services. How much longer will the world continue to accept our printable paper dollars in such abundance? Prepare yourself for the day they don't. Our dollar isn't as good as gold, and sadly, neither are our bonds....and there certainly are a lot of them out there poised to come flooding back home.

Are you voting for gold with YOUR wallet? (You should be.)

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/18/2001; 15:51:47 MDT - Msg ID: 53918)

VanRip's question, "What do you think about it?"

Well, my good man, the short answer I'd offer would be this. Mr. Butler could find a wealth of knowledge in our archives if only he'd give himself the benefit of the quiet time required. I know the answer us there because I recall having given this matter extensive coverage, and am loath to repeat the effort when I have such a backlog of other necessary activity. And further, what is to say another explanation would be heeded the second time when it wasn't the first? I hope this does not sound dismissive or arrogant. I am genuinely weary. That is all.

I know we have newcomers arrive daily, therefore I must and will often repeat the fundamental stuff as the ongoing conversation requires. But when it comes to the high-end matters of banking, derivatives, and the interplay with respect to price discovery, after ensuring that the material has at least been exposed to our most diligent and probing readers once, there seems to be little reward in repeating until the general participation in conversation is found to be striving at that level.

Strad Master

(05/18/2001; 16:04:08 MDT - Msg ID: 53919)

Randy @ (The Tower)

Photo RANDY: Thanks for the offer to post up a photo of Eva Gabriella for all the Kinghts and Ladies of this esteemed forum to view. Please send me or post the best e-mail for me to get that .jpeg to and it will be on its way asap. (Sorry - I know I should have your e-mail safely tucked away somewhere but I can't find it at the moment.) My current, temporary e-mail address is ebalogh1@earthlink.com Muchas gracias.

R Powell

(05/18/2001; 16:16:10 MDT - Msg ID: 53920)

CNBC Business Center

just started with Ron Insania and Sue Herrera discussing the up move in gold and oil. Ron thinks they're connected and a reaction to the Middle East violence. Sue says that would be good news for the equities as it rules out inflation as the cause. Whatever they think is not important, what is is the mainstream Television exposure. The goal from this? Some good irrational exuberance type investment capital aimed at precious metals.
However, I've discovered that Miner_46 sacrificed a chicken today just before POG started up. This is reported at 12:01 on the G-E forum. He did this to get an entrail reading for a POG and AUX (particularly Drooy) forecast. IMHO, this chicken sacrifice is the main reason for today's spot spike.
Message to Gold-eagle visiters-- Please ask Miner46 to get another chicken ready for Monday. Ask him to pick a big, fat one. Thanks
Rich

Al Fulchino

(05/18/2001; 16:21:21 MDT - Msg ID: 53921)

Camel (05/18/01; 09:50:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 53870 and All

I posted about a week or two ago some references to comments made by Mr Cheney. He never pooh poohed conservation! This is the trouble with debates and forums. And I say that knowing full well just how good this one is. But the usual suspects always forget what was said or only hear what they want to hear and go off on a tangent that leaves original argument far behind. In this case Mr Cheney actually applauded US efforts at conservation, noting our five fold increase in GDP since the 70's, and a dramatically lower increase in the use of the oil and fuels to power it. Why didnt we need 5 times the energy? Fuel efficiencies such as CAFE and other conservation measures. And Mr Cheney himself said so. Why do people think they have to put down everyone who ever worked in the oil industry? It boggles my mind. Secondly, if anyone were to take a few moments and pay just a bit more attention, these fellows Cheney and Bush are saying that with current technology and the energy requirements that we have, that conservation alone is not enough. Not that conservation is bad/evil. Just that it is not enough.
Thirdly, we all tend to think we are the only ones who exist in the world. Let me point out a stat from the Lundberg letter , in 1995 there were 177.4 million licensed drivers in the US. In 2000, there were 189.7 million. this year the projection is for 192.3 million. Where in the blazes do all the conservationists think these new people will get their gasoline? If they all buy just one gallon it is an increase in national need isn't it? What can they conserve? They are starting at zero. Is one of these new users your 16 year old child? You tell him he or she cannot drive. Folks it gets downright silly. This is the same mentality that got Jimmy Carter unelected. It is a failed policy, always has been and always will be. Oh wait a minute, now I remember...Ted Turner has a plan...he says stop breeding so much....ok folks, either this is China or you all will step forward and stop this nonsensical talk when it confronts you, and do the stopping in front of your kids so that they have good role models.

Another point I need to make here. The cost of gasoline is just not high. How many among us here are making what we made back in the seventies. Adjust gas prices for inflation. You do the math and come back to me and tell me how much you are paying in real dollars. You pick the starting date. And if your wages are not keeping pace with inflation, try talking to the Fed, your Presidents and Congressmen. Anyone who wants to drive a hybrid has their right. But my family will not fit into one, so do not force that whole thing down our throats.

Ok I am up for air have at me....and how about that spot price of gold..and the spot on gas was down 5cts the other day too lol.

ORO

(05/18/2001; 16:48:56 MDT - Msg ID: 53922)

VanRip, Ted Butler, Randy - LBMA volumes

Contrary to the tone taken by Ted Butler, having done some comparison of trade volumes on COMEX vs. US derivatives reports from OCC, and having looked at LBMA volumes compared to BIS derivative reports, it is COMEX who's numbers do not reflect the gold trade - paper or otherwise.

The main deterrent for traders to use COMEX is the requirement of revealing position and trade data close to the time of trade execution. Thus US trade is conducted off the COMEX, with only a minor portion "leaking" onto it. Physical clearance is done in London (at the fixings and around them), thus US bankers may play most of the volume, thus have COMEX hours for large price moves, but the actual clearing through COMEX is minimal to non-existent (in the physical trade). US trade is off the official regulated markets and the public execution of trades is done in London. Thus London clearing volumes are very large and volatility is low, while in the US COMEX, volumes are minor and volatility is high.

The problem is that the US government is not trusted to lay off large gold piles, and anyone wishing to conduct trade in private must do so outside the jurisdiction of the COMEX and its regulators. The problem, much contrary to Ted Butler's thinking, is that the US gold market is overly regulated and far too "transparent" for gold. Gold trade requires privacy, such is found on the LBMA.

None would doubt that Swiss, Dubai, Hong Kong, and some other gold markets are large, yet they report little or nothing on volume and price information flows from these markets only through its arbitrage to the "pulic" markets. I would venture a guess as to one element causing the LBMA's falling volume - that is its relatively recent opening of its volume and clearing information. If the market perceives this to be a market heading towards full disclosure trade, then it would become marginalized even if its traders are the most important ones. Gold traders run from the light where their gold sparkles in the public eye, lest some would lust after it.

In short, it is not LBMA shooting bogus numbers, but the COMEX being an irrelevant market. On the other hand, London bankers could hardly be thought to be the movers and shakers of the gold world, a role distinctly of the US money-center banks, and increasingly of Swiss and German banks.

aunuggets

(05/18/2001; 16:53:00 MDT - Msg ID: 53923)

R Powell

Chickens ?We do have nearby breading houses. If you really think it will help on monday, I'll unpack the Uzi from the closet and get busy over the weekend...... (grin)

aunuggets

(05/18/2001; 16:53:20 MDT - Msg ID: 53924)

R Powell

Chickens ?We do have nearby breeding houses. If you really think it will help on monday, I'll unpack the Uzi from the closet and get busy over the weekend...... (grin)

aunuggets

(05/18/2001; 17:02:56 MDT - Msg ID: 53925)

Great Quote From News Desk Article

-
......."What's funny is that another Central Bank�the BOE�sold the lows this week after they helped to create the low! Just imagine if the BOE would have sold their 650,000 ounces of gold at 288 instead of 268�that's a $13,000,000 difference!!!�oh well."

Yep, they certainly "obtained value" from that slick move.

Gotta love that one !

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/18/2001; 17:05:30 MDT - Msg ID: 53926)

To Strad Master...

For future reference, you can always find my e-mail address at the bottom of every page on this website.

sitemaster@usagold.com

Black Blade

(05/18/2001; 17:06:18 MDT - Msg ID: 53927)

RE: Al Fulchino (05/18/01; 16:21:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 53921)

You da Man! I couldn't have said it better. I can just imagine the comments from some people that pass your way when they fill their tanks. I hear that many places here in the west are going to "prepay" now as there are now many "fill-and-flee" drivers dropping into local gas stations. Have you seen an increase in that type of activity?

- Black Blade

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/18/2001; 17:13:08 MDT - Msg ID: 53928)

For ORO...

"Gold traders run from the light where their gold sparkles in the public eye, lest some would lust after it." ---ORO (05/18/01; msg#: 53922)

Your thoughts are in good company!

"Gold is pale because it has so many thieves plotting against it." ---Diogenes (412-323 B.C.)

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/18/2001; 17:19:56 MDT - Msg ID: 53929)

Randy @ # 53918

Sir

May I suggest this. When you are genuinely weary and or simply do not have time to give a response to a request, just abstain from posting. We will understand. You did sound dismissive and arrogant. Silence would have served well in this case.

Very respectfully,

HBM

Canuck

(05/18/2001; 17:33:38 MDT - Msg ID: 53930)

@ All

Excellent day ladies and gentlemen. Just went through the posts, thanks for the play-by-play.

What interests me most about today is the 12:05 'spike-and-surge'. Something very important was discovered at that time. If we know what happened at that time it may tell us about the near-term future.

Any theories?

TIA,

Canuck.

aunuggets

(05/18/2001; 17:44:05 MDT - Msg ID: 53931)

Canuck

Have seen several mentions on various sites about the 12:00 noon (give or take) spike and surge being related to the close of the London markets. Not sure of the significance there, but that "enveloping horn" is beginning to point in the direction of New York.

CoBra(too)

(05/18/2001; 18:10:08 MDT - Msg ID: 53932)

@ Randy - Re Diogenes ...

Is it that why he hid his private parts in a wooden barrel - ya' didn't expect him to wear Levi's - though he was supposed to say to Alex' the Great - hey man get out of my sunlight ... a plight in CA today ... though, hey, tan as you may to a golden glow and show - off your golden wealth, not stealth as before and use no discretion to exchange your possession of accumulated progression of paper concession to trade for the eternal wealth preserving physical gold. ... and some unencumbered miner's wealth, buried as well ... best your Au-intoxicated cb2

Black Blade

(05/18/2001; 18:21:07 MDT - Msg ID: 53933)

Perfect storm for rally in gold sector Confluence of factors

http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/investing/story.html?f=/stories/20010517/564871.html
Snippit:

The U.S. economy is in trouble, inflation is on the rise and the U.S. dollar is falling. Life is looking up for gold. - The fifth U.S. interest rate cut this cycle on Tuesday indicated the economy remains in trouble and gold is seen as a safe haven. Paradoxically, those rate cuts might fuel inflation down the road while higher energy prices are already putting pressure on the system, also making gold a safe haven.

Black Blade: "It's deja vu (1970's) all over again." Higher energy prices, weakening dollar, rising inflation, and higher POG. History is just repeating again. As we have discussed over the last few months, and energy and gold respond as they should. George Dubya's energy speeches yesterday describing the crisis worse than in the 1970's is on the mark. Throw in a bit of mid-east tension, and then watch the lauching of the Golden Lifeboats into the Perfect Storm.

R Powell

(05/18/2001; 18:24:06 MDT - Msg ID: 53934)

Annuggets

I remember hearing news about Goldman-Sacks moving their metals trading center to London a while ago. I meant to watch to see if the theory of higher POG from Comex close until Comex open would then change to higher POG from London close to London open.
Wall St. Week is on the tube in about ten minutes. Louis Rukhyser usually mentions the POG in his opening statements and usually has a condescending sigh or comment aimed at the stupid goldbugs who just can't seem to understand that gold no longer has any value. CNBC's comments today linked POG with a higher POO and Middle-East violence ( as in F-16 jet strikes). Can you say escalation?
Off to watch Louie!
Rich

Black Blade

(05/18/2001; 18:29:27 MDT - Msg ID: 53935)

Credit Card Companies See Big Rise in Defaults - Getting Bigger!

http://www.thestreet.com/comment/detox/1431621.html
Snippit:

A nasty jump in the number of defaulted loans at the nation's credit card companies in April has raised a big question mark over the outlook for this volatile sector.

Black Blade: Just the "Tip-o-the-Berg." This is a developing story that will get beyond ugly, it will get absolutely gruesome. Think of the poor fools who get those 125% mortgages to payoff those credit cards, only to get in a real bind with their homes at risk. Add in a slowing economy and rising numbers of layoffs, and we can expect a rising number of entrepreneurs on street corners shining shoes, selling apples and pencils.

turkey hunter

(05/18/2001; 18:32:19 MDT - Msg ID: 53936)

12 noon gold spike

announcement at 12:10 pm today by APTrade Deficit Jumps by 16 Percent

WASHINGTON (AP) � The U.S. trade deficit widened by a record amount in March as exports of U.S. aircraft and other manufactured goods fell while American purchases of foreign consumer goods from toys to clothing soared. The Commerce Department said today that the trade imbalance jumped by 16.1 percent in March, to $31.2 billion. That represented a $4.3 billion widening from February's deficit of $26.9 billion, the largest one-month deterioration in trade on record.

Netking

(05/18/2001; 18:37:59 MDT - Msg ID: 53937)

Ag - Chart

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.htmlNothing wrong with the chart above, yes?

Black Blade

(05/18/2001; 18:46:55 MDT - Msg ID: 53938)

California Lawmaker Forecasts Jail Time for Energy Executives

http://199.97.97.163/IMDS%PMAKRT0%read%/home/content/users/imds/feeds/knightridder/2001/05/18/krtbn/0000-0154-LB-ENERGY-EXEC
Snippit:

May 18--LONG BEACH, Calif.--A top member of the state Legislature's energy committee said he believes some energy executives involved in the state's growing energy crisis "will be going to jail." "I do believe, and let me say this right now, that some of the gas manipulators are going to jail," The statements, by State Sen. Richard Alarcon, D-San Fernando Valley, came Thursday at the annual Women's Transportation Seminar conference at the Hyatt Regency Long Beach. Alarcon told the audience of 400 transportation industry executives and employees. "They are going to face criminal penalties for obstruction of justice," he continued over thunderous applause. "I do believe they are going to suffer."

Black Blade: Yep, that'll encourage energy investment in Kalifornia. I hope that the Grasshoppers can adapt to living in the "New Dark Ages." The Kalifornian Ants will have to get by with a "Golden Light" and the preparations that they have taken while their neighborings whine on.

CoBra(too)

(05/18/2001; 18:48:00 MDT - Msg ID: 53939)

Re - Master of the Stradivarius

As a first timer in becoming a gran'pa, of a little cute LEA, I would like to express my congrats to you on your addition to the (phil-)harmonic stable.
Did you ever consider Vienna (and the Philharmonics) as a potential home, goal or is it trauma? Love your input and all the best to you and your's - as my marital party is forever Jeunesse Musicale , I'd rather gather the Phillie's re'al - as I'm considered an unsophisticated barbar - ... though I still love "Brahms" amongst others...

Best to you and family - cb2

Black Blade

(05/18/2001; 18:59:52 MDT - Msg ID: 53940)

Winter Blackouts Feared in Pacific Northwest

http://199.97.97.163/IMDS%PMAKRT0%read%/home/content/users/imds/feeds/knightridder/2001/05/18/krtbn/0000-0288-SE-BLACKOUT
Snippit:

May 17--The Pacific Northwest risks California-style rolling blackouts this coming winter if the drought lingers through summer and fall, according to power-supply forecasts. Blackouts are possible as early as November if a cold snap hits the region. "We're very concerned about next winter, much more so than the summer," said Mike Hansen, a spokesman for the Bonneville Power Administration, which markets federal power from a network of Columbia River hydropower projects. The regional risks were detailed in a national power-supply report released yesterday by the North American Electric Reliability Council. The report also said Californians could face as many as 15 blackouts a week during the coming summer, when air conditioners soak up energy and power demand peaks.

Black Blade: Headed for "interesting times." It takes time to build energy generating facilities and transmission lines, and they tend to work a bit better when there's fuel available. The US economy is toast. Is it any wonder that energy and gold are destined to go much higher? Glad I am sailing my "Golden Lifeboat" on a sea of oil and gas (Thank God I don't smoke).

Solomon Weaver

(05/18/2001; 19:02:09 MDT - Msg ID: 53941)

politicians love technology fixes

I am glad to see so much discussion on silver (smile)....old hands around here know how much Poor old Solomon loves silver (smile).

Just would like to note that it is interesting that Bush thinks that the best way to save electricity is to reduce waste on the way to the consumer......and the idea that some new wires will fix the problem just fits into our idea of always expecting technology to save the day.

I have a little ongoing argument with my wife...she seems to need the water running to enjoy cleaning something....she will have the faucet running for 5 minutes just to brush her teeth....or will be over at the kitchen table wiping up a storm, while the tap water runs like Niagra Falls.

Well, the ONLY thing that can work short term in any market is individual action...and the only thing that works for all is long term vision.

My long term vision: Today a nice roofing layer on an average home costs "about" $5000 and you need a new one every 15-30 years. By 2020, there will be "roofing" companies who will come out, take exact measurements of your roof profile, and will return 4 weeks later to install a "polymercloth" layer that "snaps" together at the ridges and valleys. With 1/5 of the labor, they will install a new waterproof roofing that will last for 80 years and cost a total of $10,000 (please adjust up for inflation). And this roof will also "plug into the grid".

Viewed as a "roof replacement" (gold mining cost), the electrical cost (silver by product) will be free.

Take home message...affordable solar only comes when it is capitalized by roofing costs.

Poor old Solomon

Tree in the Forest

(05/18/2001; 19:09:22 MDT - Msg ID: 53942)

R Powell, Beesting

Rich: As far as Ron and Sue are concerned, they might as well be reading chicken entrails; they're commentary couldn't be any less knowledgable.

Beesting: You wrote: "This morning, Briefing.com noted that the Bank of England had reduced the size of its gold auction to 20 tonnes this Tuesday from 25 tonnes at the prior 11 auctions. There is speculation now that the BOE might reduce or eliminate the sale of its reserves altogether."

Is this what the BOE means when the said that they had "received value" for their gold? Is this how it's done? Sell your gold when the price is down, then stop when it goes up? And here I thought it was buy low, sell high. Boy am I dumb! These bankers are just too smart for me!

Sancho

(05/18/2001; 19:18:01 MDT - Msg ID: 53943)

ALL

Well, there at long last seems to be a strong possibility that one's life may be transformed from one of sordid apprehension of one's declining assets (with attendant high blood pressure) to one of prosperity and plenty. Keep buying. I am.

beesting

(05/18/2001; 19:22:26 MDT - Msg ID: 53944)

Sir Tree 53942

That post was a snippet from Briefing.com, I was so excited at the time I forgot to add snippet, here it is:

Beesting: You wrote,
[snippet]"This morning, Briefing.com noted that the Bank of England had
reduced the size of its gold auction to 20 tonnes this Tuesday from 25 tonnes at the prior
11 auctions. There is speculation now that the BOE might reduce or eliminate the sale of
its reserves altogether."[unsnip]

Comment:
That last line in a main stream news media article, I think is "very" significant.....beesting.

JMB

(05/18/2001; 19:24:49 MDT - Msg ID: 53945)

Fractional Reserve Bullion Banking

!% to !.5% looks pretty good when you lend the bullion out to a half a dozen different entities at the same time. It appears that the world's Central Banks are facing a short squeeze.

Tree in the Forest

(05/18/2001; 19:37:08 MDT - Msg ID: 53946)

Megatron, Carl H

Megatron: Sounds like you're an audiophile! That's good. This board is an appropriate place for "golden ears". ; )

Carl H: Regarding superconducting use of silver. It may not be necessary or desirable to use solid conductors of superconducting material. A thin film coating may be sufficient. Skin effect would be of no consequence (what there is of it at 60Hz). Once you put a superconductive material on the outside of a cable, all of the current will collect there with the rest of the conductor looking like a high resistance shunt. Keep in mind that with zero resistance the voltage drop across one hundred miles of cable is zero. So there will be no current in the substrate. In fact, it might work best on the surface of an insulator or something that looks like an insulator compared to zero resistance (glass or carbon fiber cable?). Current density would be very high but who cares because no IsquaredR losses. The only reason conductors need to be big is to get the resistance down. Zero resistance is very strange electrically and you need to think outside the box. There wouldn't be a need for massive cables. Theoretically, a cable the thickness of a human hair could carry the entire world's electricity. I believe I saw some articles on superconductive films. There was a lot of research being done on it. The only limitation was current density. It needs to be kept low enough for the material in question to remain in a superconductive state. This is not a heating issue because there are no losses but rather an electromagnetic field intensity issue. Anyway that's what I remember of it. It certainly is an interesting and potentially fruitful area of endeavor.

TheStranger

(05/18/2001; 19:52:39 MDT - Msg ID: 53947)

From Doug Noland

http://www.prudentbear.com/credit.htm"One of these days interest-rates will surprise on the upside. Perhaps, the Fed will be forced to reverse course or the credit market will move on its own. We certainly see all the makings for a surprise on the inflation front, with continued money and credit excess being poured on an economy with the greatest predisposition to inflationary pressures in years.

"A strong perception holds that there is little risk associated with the Fed's aggressive rate cuts. This is but one more example of the consensus view being way out in left field. We are certainly watching the price of gold carefully, with bullion rising almost $20 this week. While it is a very key commodity, it's trading has for some time been distorted by aggressive central bank selling and untold supply created in the derivatives market. Such market dynamics, like those that pervade throughout financial derivatives, create great potential for speculative excess, instability and inevitable dislocation. We have expected that a rush to unwind derivative speculations would at some point create panic buying of the actual underlying metal. Has the Fed's extreme aggressiveness set off this process? Will a dislocation in the gold derivatives market precipitate other derivative problems, perhaps in the swaps or currency markets? Is the dollar similarly vulnerable to a derivative market dislocation? It is certainly our view that the Fed is pursuing the course of greatest risk, the senseless perpetuation of the Great Credit Bubble."

Tree in the Forest

(05/18/2001; 19:55:18 MDT - Msg ID: 53948)

Beesting

Yes sir it is indeed significant. We shall see what they decide to do with the rest of the people's gold. Keep in mind that these sales are for HM Treasury, it's not the bank's gold. I was just poking fun at the BOEs concept of value for money. Looks like the bankers have snookered the people again.

auspec

(05/18/2001; 19:59:33 MDT - Msg ID: 53949)

@ Sir Belgian

www.thoseAholesstartintopaydearlynow.comThe lilliputians are most happy tonight, no? In your post # 53742 you stated that "The holders of underground gold are not in a defensive status." Can you explain/expound on what this means?
I particularly liked your "Big insider shareholders must know that the POG is managed and has floors/ceilings and price targets?" Yes, we clearly see the shares moving PRIOR to physical as information is dissiminated. We are fully hacked at insiders for their activities, but what would we do if we were in the know?
We've got your $275 break, conclusively, going for $350 next? Thanks for your AngloGold portrait, may they rest in Chapter 11!
GATA is quick to take much {deserved} credit for this weeks actions. For all those who decry their tactics, please give a moment of gratitude for their activism. AG would NOT be in process of a gold bailout w/o these patriot's pressures. Thank you, guys, for speeding along the free markets with a touch of transparancy.
Gullivar doesn't look so huge these days!
auspec

Tree in the Forest

(05/18/2001; 20:35:11 MDT - Msg ID: 53950)

Randy

Hi Randy. I've been thinking more on the issue you raised of the possibility of static SM prices with a devaluing dollar. It's a legitimate possibility. The problem continues to be the PEs. Just today, I received a letter from a guru who discussed the PE issue. According to this man, Redback Networks currently has a PE of 1,670. In his words:
"Think about what this means: If you had bought a stock at 1,670 times earnings back in the 7th century AD (when the prophet Mohammed appeared), you'd still have to wait another 230 years from TODAY before it's cumulative earnings would equal the price you paid!"

So people think they're buying for capital appreciation but how likely is that now? With no earnings and no appreciation, what is the stock truly worth? Zip right? And if the dollar tanks now, the situation only gets worse.

However, this is the extreme case. Let's look at more reasonable valuations on more conservative stocks. According to this man, stocks like GE, Exxon Mobil, Pfizer etc. would have to drop 30-40% to be fairly valued. But devaluing the dollar 30-40% while the stock price remains the same, doesn't raise their earnings and as he says if earnings continue to drop the PEs get even worse. His point is that there must be another significant crash both in NASDAQ and Dow Jones indexes. His call is for NASDAQ at 800 and DJ at 5000 or less. Now this guru has been wrong before so that is why I won't mention his name. Still he's not the only one predicting further significant drops. And when you look at what's really happening to companies, you can see their reasons. Xerox has 23.8 billion in debt with 2.5 billion in fixed assets. United Artists has filed for bankruptcy. Sunbeam recently defaulted on 1.7 billion in loans to several banks. And what does that do to the banks? Now we know why Greenie pumps madly every day just to keep things afloat and monetize the debt. According to this man, for every dollar of shareholder equity, Time Warner owes $2.70 to creditors and for GE it's $7.20. There are a lot of big names that may disappear before this is all over. And what happens when oil prices double again and rolling blackouts ripple through to the Northeast? This situation is far from over and devaluing the dollar will not solve everything.

Well it is an interesting speculation. Perhaps over time, the dollar falling will help some companies look cheaper to overseas investors. Eventually, when there is a solid bottom in all of these indexes, I can see how at that point, dollar devaluation might make some companies look more attractive to overseas money and it would help the recovery.

There's a lot more suffering for some ahead. But as long as gold is up, I'm happy!

Peter Asher

(05/18/2001; 21:14:09 MDT - Msg ID: 53951)

@ Randy & CB2 re Diogenes

And 2300 years later he said this D-Day - Diogenes) May 18, 16:14

As an owner of physical gold and only one company's
stock which is up 3.2X on the month I am a happy camper
and certainly don't want to rain on the parade.

However, today is the third Friday of the month and we
may have just witnessed the biggest fools of all, the
naked option writers handing over their fortunes to the
leveraged longs today. many third Friday rallies have
settled back afterwards but this one is unusually
powerful. There is defiantly a cat or two out of the bag
thanks to GATA pulling the strings open and sicing the
dogs on them.

Even if Monday backs of a bit the next trading range should be the equivalent of June �44. Think of those German troops manning the Channel coast defenses when they looked out that June sixth morning and saw the full faith and product of the American Defense Bond purchasers and their ship and armament
building industry filling the sea and coming at them.That's what these BBs and Hedgers are feeling like about now.

Monday could be like the first hours of battle where the
deep entrechments did some early damage. They'll put up
a desperate fight. However,the Gold holders of the world
have the taste of blood and victory and their mouth and
it is Beachhead time!

VanRip

(05/18/2001; 21:29:19 MDT - Msg ID: 53952)

Fleckenstein and Gold

(Oro, thank you for the bit on the LBMA. Always something to learn from whatever you write. )

Here's what Bill Fleckenstein had to say about gold today in his column. Please note that I am not asking Randy, or anyone else, for a comment.

<<>>

Peter Asher

(05/18/2001; 21:52:15 MDT - Msg ID: 53953)

Well said posts

Al Fulchino (msg#: 53921) Encore, encore!

Hill Billy Mitchell (msg#: 53929) My very thought! Mr. Tower has also pleaded this case when confronted by irrefutable empirical data.

canamami

(05/18/2001; 21:53:58 MDT - Msg ID: 53954)

Don Coxe - Touches on Gold

http://www.jonesheward.com/commentary.cfmOn today's call, Coxe touches on gold twice, at about 19:00-21:30, and at about 28:00. Obviously the call occurred before today's big rally at the end, as he was somewhat bearish. He said it was a trading rally because there was nothing to indicate dollar weakness, particularly next to the Euro. One point that could trigger the change (and $325-350 gold)is the arrival of October. Apparently there is a theory that the dollar is being propped up because considerable underground economy wealth in Europe held as Dmarks and French francs is being converted to dollars (no reporting requirements) rather than Euros (reporting requirements). This process should be over by October, which could cause a decline in the dollar vis-a-vis the Euro as trade balance fundamentals would then kick in.

Coxe does not think the Fed's recent actions are inflationary. He looks to "the Fed's balance sheet" (I assume actual dollar creation) rather than the price of money (interest rates). In previous calls he elaborated that the Fed actually has not increased the actual money supply very much (unlike the Russia/Long Term Capital period in 1998). Coxe argues that what looks like Fed dollar creation is actually Eurodollar repatriation. [My Note: Eurodollar repatriation sounds a lot like FOA's theories.]

My Note: What if holders of underground Euroland Dmarks and francs decide the dollar is unnaturally overvalued, and store/park some of this wealth in gold instead?

TheStranger

(05/18/2001; 21:59:29 MDT - Msg ID: 53955)

I Found this on the Yahoo Newmont Mining Thread Tonight

(PMtrader) May 18, 19:00

Fleckenstein now posts daily at Grant's investor for a fee of $50 per year. I find the service of value. With this plug, I feel justified in quoting what Fleck had to say about gold today.

Begin Quote

No Fever Like Gold Fever
Away from stocks, the yen was weaker, as was the euro. Fixed income was slightly firmer. Oil was up a dollar to $29.93, threatening the psychological $30 level once again. The real show was in the precious metals. As we have been discussing for some time, the character of the gold market appears to have changed. Today that market erupted as gold started to go through the magic number of $275. It's deemed magical because that's where trend lines, resistance, and other such things of technical significance are located. About the next print I saw after it traded over $275 was $276.50. From there, the fireworks began. Ultimately, gold was up about $14.00 on the day and closed on the high tick. I have no idea where the next five dollars is going to be, up or down, but I believe that gold has finally -- at long last -- entered a new bull market. Here is what I believe to be the catalyst: Lots of people now understand that our central bank cares nothing about anything except for preserving the wealth effect of pieces of paper, thereby guaranteeing a diminished value for all pieces of paper down the road, not the least of which is the dollar. Were every other currency on the planet not equally weak, the dollar might actually go down against something besides the price of gold. If in fact this analysis is correct and other people come to the same conclusion, ultimately the price of gold will attain a heretofore-unimaginable level. But that's getting a few steps ahead Stay tuned.

End Quote

TheStranger

(05/18/2001; 22:02:26 MDT - Msg ID: 53956)

Sorry, VanRip

I should have looked first.

VanRip

(05/18/2001; 22:37:44 MDT - Msg ID: 53957)

Stranger/Fleckenstein

Understandable. Mr. Fleckstein writes a little about gold in his column now and then, and I usually try to post his comments when I see them. As you can gather, I cannot post a link because his column requires a fee. He's a very colorful and knowledgeable writer, and I'm glad to see he's finally getting his day in the sun. Regards.

Netking

(05/18/2001; 22:40:14 MDT - Msg ID: 53958)

The Silver Institute World Silver Survey

The Silver Institute World Silver Survey
NEW YORK(Dow Jones)World silver fabrication demand grew by 5.3%to 920.9 million ounces in 2000, driven by an 11% gain in use in industrial applications, according to World Silver Survey 2001, released Wednesday by The Silver Institute...much of the expansion in industrial demand was within the electronics sector, which grew by 12.2% to 166.6 million ounces, while the photographic sector was the only one in which demand fell, down 1.2% to 230.6 million ounces.

Netking

(05/18/2001; 22:56:11 MDT - Msg ID: 53959)

Silver survey - link

http://www.cpmgroup.com/ss01.PDFThe link for the previous for those interested.
(Make sue to spit out the bones though!)

uponroof

(05/18/2001; 23:08:21 MDT - Msg ID: 53960)

Poor old Solomon

silver roofingThanks for your thoughts on silver (and roofing). It's late and I am having trouble collecting my thoughts for a reply.
Besides, my wife is telling me to shut off the computer to save money....I have to remind her that the computer is making her money through information gained on forums like this....(you think you have problems!)....I'll get back to you later. g'nite

Carl H

(05/18/2001; 23:34:35 MDT - Msg ID: 53961)

Tree in the forest: Re: Superconductors and Transmission Lines

My apologies that this is a bit off topic.

You are partially correct, current density would put one constraint on what cross section of superconducting material you would need. If memory serves me, the lines operate at something around 6000 Amps. I will drop one of my friends from my graduate school days who did his thesis on superconductors and ask him about that point.

A suitably strong core would probably still be required because mechanical strength ratings on the lines are very high (40K lbs per span per cable per span if memory serves me) due to ice loading. Incidentally, there was a case near where we used to live where 8 miles of high voltage TOWERS colapsed due to ice loading on the lines. The ice was 8" thick on the lines. Carbon fiber would probably work, but it would probably cost a lot more than steel.

Also, the conductors for 500kV lines are typically arranged in three triplets of conductors. Each triplet is a triangle 18". This configuration is used to increase the effective radius of the conductor to reduce the corona from the line. Superconductors will not help this, so the geometry would have to be similar. You would definitely not want the smallest wire that current density would allow the use of.

working-kirk

(05/19/2001; 00:00:04 MDT - Msg ID: 53962)

rally in silver and gold

THe rally we had today was cetainly impressive. Hillbilly
mentioned that if it going to be a true breakout, we should see substantial price rise over the weekend.
But then we had so many false hopes.

What I would like to know is how does this rally look to the rally after the Washington Agreement in August of 99? What
I would like to know is:

1.)What was the highest price for gold and silver before the goons hammered it down?

2.) What was the greatest gain in a single day for gold and
silver at that time.

Anyway with a 12+ rise in gold today and 9 or so the previous two days, do you think that is enough of a rally
for those who just follow trends and wait to jump aboard and
drive the price far higher.

I hope this is the outbreak, but if not I wouldn't mind since it will give me the chance to buy at at bargain basement prices. It saw uit seem to be rallying so I spend the day getting a firm price on getting my lionels trains,
and some trumpets gold-plated and nailing down my purchases
in silver. If this is the breakout, I won't be able to afford to play in this game and so this might have been my last chance.

Good luck to all
View Yesterday's Discussion.

Netking

(05/19/2001; 00:57:47 MDT - Msg ID: 53963)

POG after termination of market suppression

Comment taken from Judge's latest;
"...Markets that have been artificially capped, catapult dramatically when market suppression ends. In the 12 years from 1968 to the peak of the bull market, the price of gold had rallied by 2300%. It has been said that "the greater and the longer the manipulation, the greater the eventual price is going be". Today, with far greater amounts of gold involved in the price suppression scheme (10,000 � 15,000 ton versus 3,000 ton in the gold pool era), over a longer period of time, and with far more at stake, it can only be concluded that the eventual price of gold may well run much higher than the 2300% of the late 60's and 70's. At today's prices, a similar move of just 2300% would price gold at a staggering $6,400 per oz..."

Peter Asher

(05/19/2001; 01:05:45 MDT - Msg ID: 53964)

The Sting

About a year ago, I posted in part <>>

Well, this was the last handoff from the BOE wasn't it. Looks like they were played like a violin until there was no more cheap gold to brainwash them into selling (or bribe their advisors). WA is mostly played out and the fire sale shelves are bare. Over and over it has been asked "If all these guys are selling, who's buying?"

Well, whoever they are, now that they've got all they can get, it's time for, ---- THE STING!

ORO

(05/19/2001; 03:03:03 MDT - Msg ID: 53965)

Camel, Democrats, Ted Turner - Making decisions for others

Camel,

The point of Campbell's message is a warning of the probable. Long before his predictions come true, we will have seen alternatives to oil sourced gasoline come up and gain commercial success.

In the meantime, it is important that we do not waste each other's efforts on useless conservation initiatives that siphon off talent and capital from exploration and development of oil fields. When prices are threatening to rise substantially, car makers will make the production investments needed to provide hybrid cars and "alternative" fuel autos. At that same time, tar sands and coal derived distillates will be commercially viable and further oil production would simply not be needed by the markets. In 1997, Venezuela's oil company started marketing to electricity producers an emulsified tar sand oil that contains 8%-30% water. The oil price slump of 98-9 took it off the market, but at over $20/bbl it is competitive, and it burns more cleanly than heavy oil or heating oil, requiring little change to the facilities.

The main point I want to make here is that you are a believer in central planning, in that "a policy" should be found to "direct" people towards a goal desired by the central planner � which you hope is someone you choose or perhaps yourself. The optimum route towards conservation, expanded oil production or electric production, reduction of environmental damage, etc. is not within the conscious grasp of any one person, government agency, nor of any august group of scientists. It is certainly furthest away from politicians who would make such decisions, and bureaucrats who would implement them.

The only path that would lead to a healthy environmental and energy situation is the one people choose of their own accord � without government interference. Energy is no business for government to be involved in. The only forum where environmental damage can be assessed and decisions made is the case by case forum of the court, where one side must demonstrate damage and quantify its scale and importance, and the other side must show that it either did not cause the damage, or that its scale and importance are minor, and convince a jury of "plain old folks" one way or the other.

Environmental regulations stifle solutions to environmental problems by dictating particular equipment, materials, etc., and by making categorical classification decisions and measurement criteria that go well beyond the absurd as technology advances and myriad new methods, classifications, equipment options, etc. are developed. Often, the regulations were written exactly at the time technology had made them obsolete. They also perpetuate pollution for years on end as the whole existing industry becomes "grandfathered" with long lead times to put in changes, and the burden of regulation falls only on new competitors. It should be clear that neither politicians nor bureaucrats have the slightest motivation or capacity for making the trade-off decisions of how much pollution is "acceptable" and what costs are "justified" in producing less pollution. These are decisions that can only be made by individuals and their voluntary organizations � corporations, mutual organizations, foundations � interacting together in the pursuit of their own values. The existence of a government dictated standard for maximum emissions from a particular type of plant makes it nearly impossible to sue its operator for damages these emissions caused so long as it meets government standards, whether they sufficiently protect the people and their property, or do not.

There is no single "we" with one appreciation of nature, one value to place on oil, or a single view of what a good life is. Some environmentalists believe that humanity as a whole is a superfluous parasite on earth, who's existence is dependent on a "destructive exploitation" of the land and the plants and animals on it, as well as of the water and air, and must be restricted to a minor portion of the earth's biomass. The number of people who die or are not born in the coming together of this environmental utopia seems to be entirely outside their empathy. I would suggest that people thinking that way should do as they believe and die of exposure, hunger, and thirst. As for Ted Turner, I would happily see him trampled by buffalo on his 1.7 mil. acre ranch.

But even these people can interact in a free society where there is no substantial imposition through political decisions. They can work hard, consume little, and buy large tracts of environmentally significant land where they can "protect" whatever species.

When they act through government, they promote seizures of private property to be set aside for environmental purposes. As political winds change, politicians may easily turn around and offer up this same land to oil drilling, clear cutting (a practice almost unique to government owned forest), or as nuclear waste depositories. With 10 million people contributing funds to environmental organizations, it is obvious that these funds would be better spent on purchasing land and on lobbying against laws that put possession and ownership of private property in jeopardy.

Government funded research is another one of those endless and useless pursuits. The scientists and bureaucrats that do the research and allocate funding have a motivation to retain funding for themselves. Thus the one thing they want least of all is to have answers to the questions of the research, and have a distinct interest in perpetuating the problems that attracted their funding, and in inflating the resources needed to do the research. It is only the motives of professional vanity and commercial success that occasionally pull them away from the perpetuation of useless and endless research. The government funded portion of the scientific community has an interest in not performing research in promising areas because these research projects end with the bulk of the work moving out of their arena and to commercial research, against which they do not want to compete.

Government needs an energy policy today because it had an anti-energy policy before. Government regulated away the profitability of power plants and oil refineries by imposing the use of particularly expensive and ineffective equipment, and made their licensing (1) a necessary condition before they are built, (2) made obtaining licenses as close to impossible as one can imagine. By making oil and gas drilling, coal mining, and the transport of their products illegal in particular areas (most notably where those resources are), and by confiscating fuel bearing land, government has created a shortage of locally produced energy, and has increased the risk of investors in exploration and production with the threat of land confiscation and of regulatory changes that make these activities unprofitable.

The bottom line is this: do not make decisions for other people. You do not know what they value, and with what intensity. Most people know their values, but can not express them in particular words, can not express them by answering questionnaires that miss the core issues, and can not vote on them but in the most general way. You will never know what people actually want till they face the choices they must or want to make. Even then, people often regret choices and chose differently later on. Thus, the notion of political decision making based on popular vote stands opposed to the nature of human values, knowledge, and voluntary action.

Netking

(05/19/2001; 03:08:18 MDT - Msg ID: 53966)

Greenspan on Gold

http://www.jeffinc.com/greenspan.pdfGreenspan quote from link;
"...Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world. Fiat money in extremis is accepted by nobody. Gold is always accepted...the experiences with paper money during the Revolutionary War were decidedly inauspicious 'Not worth a continental' was scarcely the epithet one would wish on a medium of exchange.."

Simply Me

(05/19/2001; 03:34:23 MDT - Msg ID: 53967)

Time for a little left-brain levity?

The Devil Went Down to London

(To the tune of "The Devil Went Down to Georgia" with apologies to the Charlie Daniels Band)

The Devil went down to London,
He was lookin' for some gold to steal.
He was in a bind 'cause he was way behind
And he was willin' to make a deal.

CHORUS: Tony lock up all your gold,
And play those auctions hot.
'Cause the Devil's in ol' London town
And he's lookin' for what you've got.

"Well, I'll bet you didn't know it,
But I'm big gold player, too!
I'll bet this paper I sold against your gold,
That I play better than you!"

"Well, Devil, my name's Tony.
And it may be a sin,
But I'll take your bet and you're gonna regret',
'Cause I'm the best that's ever been!

(repeat CHORUS)

Now, I don't have to tell you
How the gold contest turned out,
'Cause the Devil's in the details
And it's Tony's turn to pout.

So hold on to your "physical"
And remember, you've been told.
See, the Devil's now pavin' the streets of Hell
with the Bank of England's Gold!

LeSin

(05/19/2001; 04:46:05 MDT - Msg ID: 53968)

EURO USE TO INCREASE IN RUSSIA - STRATEGIC TIME LINE

http://russia.strana.ru/economics/finance/2001/05/18/990192573.html
Keep your sights on the euro, Shokhin
18.05.01. 17:30
Duma Bank Committee chief Alexander Shokhin thinks it expedient for Russia to increase the share of foreign euro settlements.

Introducing the cash euro as of January 1, 2002, will increase the currency's role in the world economy and in Russia, Europe being Russia's main trade partner, he told a press conference in the Interfax agency May 18.
In his view, the euro zone member countries will also undertake special measures designed to boost the unit's influence in the world economy.

He also called for the creation of a special "euro-ruble" warranty fund in order to attract foreign investors to Russia and to deal with the problem of capital flight.

In his words, the technology of creating a fund of this type might be developed within the next few months and the fund might become operative before the end of this year.

LeSin

(05/19/2001; 04:53:41 MDT - Msg ID: 53969)

Russia "URGED" To Move From US$ Settlements T0 EURO

http://www.interfax-news.com/TodaysFSUNews/today.htmlhttp://www.interfax-news.com/TodaysFSUNews/today.html

News Headlines for 5/18/2001

�� The European Union has reaffirmed its support for Russia's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO). It has also announced its readiness to assist Russia with its adaptation to WTO requirements, says a joint statement of the EU-Russia summit.

The statement confirms the readiness of the European Union for intensified efforts to boost negotiations on Russia's entry into the WTO.

It voices mutual interest in the development of an economic dialogue and pledges "the quickest elimination of obstacles in the way of trade and investments between Russia and the European Union."

It has been decided to set up a high-level group to draft a concept of a uniform European economic system.

The sides have agreed to consider the euro's use in their trade and economic relations.

�� In a press conference on the results of the EU-Russia summit in Moscow on Thursday, EU President Romano Prodi praised investment growth in the Russian economy and the fact that the country's Central Bank had had the chance to replenish its forex reserves. The EU president also suggested that countries in Central and Eastern Europe be helped to move from dollar to euro settlements.

Cavan Man

(05/19/2001; 06:40:14 MDT - Msg ID: 53970)

?Question?

Does anyone remember the name of the Canadian fund that trades on Amex and is a physical holder of AU/AG? TIA

Canuck

(05/19/2001; 07:02:24 MDT - Msg ID: 53971)

aunuggets

From yours:

"Have seen several mentions on various sites about the 12:00 noon (give or take) spike and surge being related to the close of the London markets. Not sure of the significance there, but that "enveloping horn" is beginning to point in the direction of New York."

Sorry but I am not with you? If London had keep the POG flat
until close and then the subsequent 'spike-and-surge' in NY not point to issues in London?

Excellent observation on your part Sir.

Canuck

Canuck

(05/19/2001; 07:06:36 MDT - Msg ID: 53972)

@ Turkey Hunter

From yours:

"12 noon gold spike
announcement at 12:10 pm today by AP
Trade Deficit Jumps by 16 Percent

WASHINGTON (AP) � The U.S. trade deficit widened by a record amount in March as exports of U.S. aircraft and other manufactured goods fell while American purchases of foreign consumer goods from toys to clothing soared. The Commerce Department said today that the trade imbalance jumped by 16.1 percent in March, to $31.2 billion. That represented a $4.3 billion widening from February's deficit of $26.9 billion, the largest one-month deterioration in trade on record."

Good call my man; the fallout in exports implies a shying away of the overvalued dollar, yes?

Canuck.

Canuck

(05/19/2001; 07:15:20 MDT - Msg ID: 53973)

From my post 93530 last evening.

"What interests me most about today is the 12:05 'spike-and-surge'. Something very important was discovered at that time. If we know what happened at that time it may tell us about the near-term future."

Please recall the POG flatline yesterday until 12:05-12:10.

Three thoughts may explain the resultant spike:

1) London close (thanks aunuggets)
2) Disastrous trade deficit number (thanks turkey hunter)
3) The M.E. escalation.

Any other suggestions fellow P.G.A.'s?

Any speculations on near-term direction?

Thanks and have a great week-end.

Canuck.

P.S.: Is Memorial Week-end (U.S.A.) May 26/27?

Mr Gresham

(05/19/2001; 07:20:06 MDT - Msg ID: 53974)

Simply Me

That was a wonderful creative effort to wake up to. Now I'm going to have that song in my head all day (we'll see if it's still there after hours of lawn-mowing), and I'll be smiling those secret smiles when I remember where I got it...

Mr Gresham

(05/19/2001; 07:26:48 MDT - Msg ID: 53975)

"Letting gold run"

Two months ago the Dow was in a slide and "Bear Market" was on the covers of magazines. Today, they are wondering about new highs ahead (at least in Dow terms). There was a crisis feeling in the air. Wall Street was getting egg on its face.

If you knew you had to let the POG out sometime soon, wouldn't you pick a time of greater optimism, so as not to crash the system with POG as the straw breaking the poor beast's back?

Now, a POG-spike just raises curious heads among the sheeple as they graze, "what was that?" "mmmm, yummy grass today..."

JMB

(05/19/2001; 07:27:10 MDT - Msg ID: 53976)

CAVAN MAN

Could it be The Canadian Central Fund? CEF

Belgian

(05/19/2001; 08:15:52 MDT - Msg ID: 53977)

@ Auspec

* ...holders of underground gold are not in defensive status...* : with "holders", I ment the Big miners with more than 20 years of underground (profitable) reserves at todays obscene POG. In the first place always referring to numero uno AU. All mines who were capable of expanding their reserves for the last 6 years under these terrible POG conditions. The shareholders of these mines are also gold-holders and gold-managers. Now, imagine that you or me are the owners of a giant money-machine (enterprise) and a substantial amount of physical gold (above or under).
How creative are we going to be in managing and optimising both values (enterprise + physical gold). The answer is most probably going to be very similar to what we experienced as lilliputans for the past 6 or more years.
These extremely wealthy people never panicked on gold.
These private goldholders (miners and investors -add your black goldholders) had (and still have) a relation with the smallest goldholder: official CBs gold.
The kind of "relation" that these two main gold-powers (private/public) have developped is our guess. It is against this background that I use the leader's (AU) shareprice, to guess, at what stage that relationship is.
All other gold statistics are un-reliable (cfr. your dive into the amounts of un-accounted gold). Gold-holders are not acting as if gold is to disappear or becoming worthless. They have been and of course still are...actively managing that all visible "price" aspect of gold (the commodity) with carefully hiding its enormous intrinsic Value aspect. Create a crisis and a controlable amount of opportunities appear at your service.
Do we have any notion how an accumulator of many gold-tonnes, is activily managing, this kind of wealth ? How are they counterbalancing this golden mountain, against their other wealth generators (enterprises) ? What are they expecting of this physical gold in relation to the global macro-economics ? In fact, with physical gold, one is never on the defensive ! Use the "De Beers" strategy, for better understanding of what happens with gold. The undisciplined diamont producers (Angola/Russia/Congo) are acting as the official, bureaucratic goldholders (CBs). Find the analogies. The different price-levels have their purposes in their (to us unknown) strategies. The broader definition of oligopoly and oligarchy.

With TA, we try to have a guess at what stage the crowd behaviour is helping to achieve the different price-levels.
Next psychological number is 290$/ounce. Goldshare's behaviour will guide us in our guesses.

Major holders of Gold don't need to engage in Gold-Activism.
They don't care that much about the social aspects of low goldprices. We, the sand-grains, are spitting in the ocean, in order to lift the tide. It is us with the fistful of goldcoins that want to speed up and disturb the timing of the gold management (manipulation). Thanks to Trail's education, I'm slowly but surely transmuting into a plain vanilla gold-advocate instead of impatient bug. Thanks Trail.

Sir Auspec, my intuition tells me that the gold-drama, is not a stupid accident for 100%. There must be much more that we ignore at present. I'm searching for indicative facts, to support (or not), the Anothers's gold-projections. I prefer to read between the lines of the main underground holders in combination with POG's behaviour.
Most other signals (comex/LBMA/) are results of temporary speculations with little intrinsic significance.

I'm intuitively convinced that GATA's activism is most disturbing. The gold management by the oligo-poly-argy, went (most probably) a big step to far. Small goldinvestors don't deserve to be manipulated and ridiculed for their loyalty to the metal. Opportunity for newcomers and insult for oldies is a duality that went too far. With much respect for GATA to choose our side.

Off to some gardening and hope you stay here on this forum with more revelations.

Mr Gresham

(05/19/2001; 08:41:40 MDT - Msg ID: 53978)

Bye-bye corporate taxes?

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT30M8I9WMC&live=true&tagid=IXLYK5HZ8CCFT interview with O'Neill. Let's see; it would be easy to do in a time of turmoil, with corporate losses pulling back refunds from prior years' taxes, and little revenue generated currently, to dump the thing. Just in time for the rebound? Of course deficits could be skyrocketing, so it might be hard politically to make the case for dropping any tax then.

Mr Gresham

(05/19/2001; 08:54:48 MDT - Msg ID: 53979)

Belgian

Thought-provoking post, as usual. I'll re-read at least once. When our best questioners join in dialogue, we all think better.

"How are they counterbalancing this golden mountain, against their other wealth generators (enterprises) ? "

Do they, like the CBs who hold dollar reserves, hope to make up losses in one area with gold profits? This has been a difficult concept of FOA's for me to get. Why would someone acquiring gold not dispose of other enterprises likely to lose value?

CBs are watching each other, and defections will be noted, but other wealth-holders are not so bound, and ought to be re-positioning themselves in the time they've had available.

And it's hard for me to imagine CBs just writing off those dollars, unless the proportions are ridiculously small to their overall "wealth".

turkey hunter

(05/19/2001; 08:58:59 MDT - Msg ID: 53980)

@Canuck Memorial Day

Hi Canuck. Memorial day is May 28th which is on a Monday. We will have a 3 day weekend in the States starting on Sat. the 26th.

Thanks to all the forum posters for the posts. I've learned a lot in the last year. Even got an economic professor that I know reading the forum now. I think it bothered him that I might of knew what was going on behind the scenes and he didn't.

Peter Asher

(05/19/2001; 09:15:35 MDT - Msg ID: 53981)

Poem/song by Simply Me

Levity or not, that belongs in the Main Hall. Consider this a nomination.

Excellent writing in the rhyme and rhythm of real poetry! The beat in conjunction with the lyrics captures the essence of the event. Now to find the right vocalist and cut a disk. A singer like Buffy St. Marie could put the right tone into it.

Peter Asher

(05/19/2001; 09:18:19 MDT - Msg ID: 53982)

QRO #53965

ORO, that should be required reading for every man woman and older child in the land.

auspec

(05/19/2001; 09:21:29 MDT - Msg ID: 53983)

Belgian @ All - Revolt of the Long Bond

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/hamilton0521Another piece by Adam Hamilton, one of the GATA Boyz. More later when time allows.

auspec

(05/19/2001; 09:27:54 MDT - Msg ID: 53984)

Belgian Trying Again

www.http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/hamilton052101.html.

auspec

(05/19/2001; 09:30:00 MDT - Msg ID: 53985)

Darnit

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/hamilton052101.html.

turkey hunter

(05/19/2001; 09:37:51 MDT - Msg ID: 53986)

Euro Force to back the Euro? It's getting closer.

http://www.watch.org/articles.html?mcat=1 Eurofile: Euroforce prepares for action from new base in Brussels
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in Brussels May 19th

The European Military Staff came of age this week, moving into its first headquarters on Rue Cortenbergh in Brussels. The 60-man staff will have a "Sitcen" nerve-centre to serve as the antennae of the EU's new "defence identity".
For the time being, the staff will not manage military operations. That task will be left to the force headquarters of the lead country in each mission, which will tend to be either Britain or France.

The EU's military wing is growing fast. The European Parliament has been asked to approve an extra �6 million in supplementary funding to meet the mushrooming costs of relocating EU military personnel. Parliament documents show that the total staff will soon be 141, divided into three tiers: "political affairs", "operations and exercises", and an "external actions mechanism".

The first military exercises will begin in May or June next year. They will test the procedures of the 60,000-man rapid reaction force, along with its flotilla of warships and 400 aircraft. The force is to be ready for "crisis management" anywhere in the world by 2003, but could dip its toe in the water as soon as next year. EU ministers agreed this week to "lend" it to the United Nations if necessary.

The Institute for International Strategic Studies excoriated the EU's foreign policy this week, saying it amounted to little more than "protest diplomacy" driven by the urge to irritate the United States. The list of examples included meddling in North Korea, the Middle East and Iraq, in each case under-cutting American policy without offering any plausible alternative.

The European Commission and the European Investment Bank launched a �650 million, five-year project to revive Europe's film industry and defend the EU against the cultural hegemony of the United States.

The European Parliament approved funding for political parties as a "factor for integration within the EU and to contribute to forming a European awareness." The measure was opposed by Britain's two commissioners, Chris Patten and Neil Kinnock. They said it was mistaken in principle, unworkable in practice and discriminatory.

The �5 million subsidy will be restricted to parties with members in five EU states. The money can be used only for EU activities, and may not be channelled back for national campaigns. The parties will be stripped of the funds if they "act in a fashion" that conflicts with the EU's Charter of Fundamental Rights. A panel of Euro-MPs will act as judge and jury on this question.

Critics complain that it will have the power to disqualify Euro-sceptic or Right-wing parties if they exhibit "xenophobic" tendencies or step out of line.

Eurojust, the EU's judicial co-operation unit, is a step closer to becoming an EU federal "Justice Ministry" along the lines of the Justice Department in the United States. The European Parliament approved a proposal stating that Eurojust must become "the nucleus of a future European public prosecution service". The body starts work this year and will consist of a magistrate or prosecutor from each state.

Under current plans Eurojust will be able to "ask" a member state to start a criminal investigation or begin a prosecution. Any refusal requires a "reasoned justification". The Parliament is now insisting that Eurojust should also be able to demand criminal records from member states, the EU anti-fraud office OLAF and the Schengen immigration data bank.

PH in LA

(05/19/2001; 09:46:31 MDT - Msg ID: 53987)

What hit the fan at 12:05 yesterday?

Canuck:

Re: Your post #93530

I think you are on the right track with your speculation about something happening at 12:05 yesterday. The Kitco graph looks eerily like that memorable Sunday night on the weekend of the Washington Agreement. Remember how POG took off in Hong Kong and was up $15 in a heartbeat?

The three possible explanations in your msg#: 53973 don't really seem dramatic enough to account for this latest 1-hour blastoff. After all, London has closed every day for years at the same time without such an effect. The trade deficit numbers have been disastrous for a very long time, too. And violence in the Middle East and everywhere else has been a non-starter since the current gold environment evolved in the 90s.

I, also, think something hit the fan at 12:05 and somebody knows all about it. It's no accident that this happened just one hour before the close on Friday...and all markets are closed until the Hong Kong open on Sunday. The news media is effectively on hold for the weekend, too. If we don't hear anything before then (Where are you FOA?) we'll be watching the Hong Kong price on Sunday night. If it goes bonkers, too, there ought to be something in the news by Monday. BTW, wasn't there supposed to be a G-7 meeting this month? Is it this weekend? Maybe they have another bombshell for us in the form of another press release (a la Washington Agreement). Someone could easily have gotten ahold of it at 12:05 and made a few phone calls.

I remember FOA's breathless comment on that Sunday night in September, 1999: "This just might be the whole ball game right here, people!" (Or something to that effect.) If so, the question will soon be, "Can they put the genie back into the bottle a second time?"

I, for one, can't wait to see.

Mr Gresham

(05/19/2001; 09:55:11 MDT - Msg ID: 53988)

Doug Noland -- Credit Bubble Bulletin

http://www.prudentbear.com/credit.htmNoland draws the parallels between California's energy pricing blow-up (and the failed intentions to manage risk and volatility) and the GSE real estate bubble, awaiting its pinprick.

"Indeed, the viability of the $100 trillion plus derivative market is absolutely dependent on assurances of uninterrupted liquidity that only the Federal Reserve can effectively provide. And nowhere is the Fed's role more critical than with the mammoth interest-rate swaps market. The swaps market, in particular, holds the key for the GSEs ability to endlessly balloon their balance sheets..."

And to repeat The Stranger's excerpt:

"Will a dislocation in the gold derivatives market precipitate other derivative problems, perhaps in the swaps or currency markets? Is the dollar similarly vulnerable to a derivative market dislocation? "

aunuggets

(05/19/2001; 09:59:44 MDT - Msg ID: 53989)

Canuck

Might add to your list the LBMA conference beginning this weekend. Coincidence ? Probably not. Alot of suspicion in the air that UK may pull back (or out completely) from the AU sell-off program, and may encourage others to follow suit. That $13 million 2-day loss on last weeks sale may actually have gotten their attention.

"For some this weekend, it's golden smiles. For others, it's just egg on their face !"

FredBear

(05/19/2001; 10:03:41 MDT - Msg ID: 53990)

ORO (05/19/01; 03:03:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 53965)

Let the men of the mind invent.

Energy Free � Excerpt from Dr. Jack Wheeler

With GWBush as president, today it is possible to ask another question: What would the world be like if it were not dependent upon Arab Oil? To reframe the question for America: What if the United States was fully energy independent, producing enough oil at low cost that it had no need to import any foreign oil � not from Saudi and the Persian Gulf, not from Castro-wannabe Hugo Chavez's Venezuela, not from the thugocracy of Nigeria? What if the United States, in partnership with Canada, could be a net exporter of oil, supplying for example, the needs of Japan?

As with RR's (Ronald Reagan's) predecessor and the Reagan Doctrine, such questions have been unthinkable with GW's predecessor beholden to anti-energy eco-fascists. With GW's pro-capitalist, pro-human, pro-energy administration in place, these questions can not only be asked, they can be answered.

It turns out there is an almost unimaginably large amount of oil right here in the western United States and Canada. An "OPEC of oil" is an amount of oil equivalent to the total reserves of all OPEC countries put together. We are talking here of at least five OPECs. There is one deposit alone that contains over a cubic mile of oil. There's just one hitch: you can't get it commercially out of the ground with current extraction methods. We're talking about oil locked up in deposits called oilsands.

You don't drill for oil that's mixed with sand like a beach smeared with a tarry oil spill � you mine it. You create huge open pit mines like at the Athabasca deposit in northern Alberta, strip away a shallow overburden of less than 100 meters, dig the stuff out with gigantic shovels and trucks, then process the oily sand with various leeching methods. It is capital-intensive in the extreme, per-barrel expensive, and entails enormous environmental clean-up costs (requiring, for example, the purification of large lakes of oil-contaminated water). Yet the amount of recoverable oil via this method (or similar shallow-overburden methods such as steam injection) is only 3% of total reserves. There is at present no known extraction process for the remaining 97%.

But what if there was? What if there was a commercially viable method to extract the remaining 97% of heavy-overburden (150-500+ meters) oilsand deposits? What if this method was extremely environmentally-friendly and cost-effective, producing at, say, $5 a barrel? Bear in mind this 97% is estimated to be, in the western United States and Canada, in excess of 2 trillion barrels of oil. Yes, that's with a "t."

One of my dearest friends on the planet, a research scientist so brilliant that MIT was not able to measure his IQ because it was so far above 220 (the upper measurable limit), has invented just such a method. It is an in-situ process, drilling right through up to 2,000 feet or more of overburden to extract 90% of a deposit as liquid petroleum pipelinable at the wellhead (that is, it can flow freely direct from the wellhead into a pipeline), with minimum environmental impact. My scientist friend and I have formed a company, Energeia, Inc., to develop the process and license it, joint venturing with majors and independents to go after those 2 trillion barrels. The lab work, computer simulations, and bench-scale tests have been completed. We are now in the process of raising the funding for a pilot test, constructing a pilot plant to confirm the process� commercial viability. Interested accredited investors should contact Energeia, Inc. at 703-528-5686.

"Energeia" is the Greek word for energy or activity. Aristotle, for example, defines happiness or eudaemonia, as an activity, an energeia (rather than a static psychological state) of one's mind or psyche. I was once able to help provide the energeia to liberate the Soviet Empire. Now I hope to liberate America and her allies from the economic and political straightjacket of oil.

FredBear

(05/19/2001; 10:08:15 MDT - Msg ID: 53991)

Another example of what free men can do

The Report Newsmagazine - 05-28-2001
The old-timers show how it's done
A research team of previously retired specialists claims a battery breakthrough
Mike Byfield
The Las Vegas laboratory of Power Technology, Inc. is nicknamed the "old folks' home," fittingly enough since eight of the 10 scientists and engineers who work there were recruited from the ranks of the retired. For instance, there is a company hearing aid, used when someone has forgotten to bring his own. In alliance with BC Research Inc. (formerly the British Columbia Research Council) and Vancouver entrepreneur Lee Balak, these senior professionals believe they have made a breakthrough
in battery technology. If their hopes prove well founded, the cost of hybrid electric/gasoline cars will drop dramatically. In fact, a 100%-electric car, rechargeable from solar panels, may move within practical reach. The moving spirit behind Power Tech's research team is Alvin Snaper, 70, whose name graces approximately 600 patents. At age 14, he fibbed his way into the U.S. Army, taking part as a paratrooper in the Battle of the Bulge in the Second World War. Although lacking a high school degree, the young veteran then wangled his way into Montreal's McGill University, and graduated in meteorology. That degree
proved irrelevant to his career. Among Mr. Snaper's better-known achievements are the orange drink Tang, the IBM Selectric typewriter ball, the NASA Apollo Photo Pack, landing gear for Boeing jetliners, and an electrostatic process used to paint cars by General Motors. He is the
only individual ever honoured three times with Patent of the Year by Design News magazine.
In 1996, the inventor formed Power Technology, working with Lee Balak as president to take the company public a year later. "About $2 million has gone into this project so far," says the Vancouver financier, who has promoted a clutch of junior firms over his 24-year career.
"To reduce air pollution and ensure our future energy security, the world needs a genuinely useful electric car. That's why I decided to work on a better battery," Mr. Snaper says. His thoughts turned to an earlier project, an aluminum alloy foam, which he had developed for NASA. The U.S. space agency injects this stuff behind the walls of its spacecraft to reinforce their structures. "Metal, in the form of a reticulated foam, provides great strength using relatively little material," the inventor explains. "Reticulation" refers to a cross-hatched structure something like a Brillo pad or sponge. In essence, the lead plate in a lead acid battery would be replaced with a lighter, more electrically efficient version (see accompanying story on page 36 for details).
The reticulation vision extends beyond lead. "In 1904, there were more vehicles on the road powered by batteries than internal combustion engines," Mr. Snaper notes. Those early electric cars ran on nickel-ironalkaline batteries, developed by Thomas Edison. At the time, nickel was more expensive than gold, but it offered a unique advantage. A
nickel-iron battery can be recharged 10,000 times or more. "This is fact, not theory.
We own 70-year-old Edison batteries and they're as good as new," the Power Tech vice-president says. He formed two research squads, one to engineer a unique battery "plate" and the other to work on chemistry.
"To save money, I recruited retired scientists and engineers, fellows who'd had top-notch careers. Most of them were already living in the Las Vegas area," Mr. Snaper recalls. "One fellow was working as a security guard to occupy his time. The others were tending their gardens.
Everyone was eager to help." The tactic has apparently succeeded. The researchers, unpressured by personal finances, feel free to think "outside the box," yet their imaginations are disciplined by up to half a century each of professional expertise. Lead chemical engineer Frank
Farrell, for instance, turned 83 this month. Despite a clutch of coursework from top American universities, Mr. Farrell never formally got a degree. He was too busy developing fuels for solid state rocket engines, spending decades with Union Carbide, Aerojet and Lockheed Propulsion. At Power Tech, the widower commonly works 24 hours a day, seven days a week, sleeping in the lab. "Battery experiments have to be checked as frequently as every 15 minutes," Mr. Farrell explains. "
After a month or so, I get fed up and go to Los Angeles to raise hell." Why work at all? "The money's good here and I didn't appreciate the activities at seniors' centres," the chemist replies dryly. Besides, he foresees a day when most houses will have solar panels on the roofs, recharging the alternate battery packs which power their cars.
"Petroleum is too valuable and irreplaceable to just torch," Mr. Farrell says. "The hydrocarbon molecule is a superb source not only for petrochemicals and plastics but also medicines and even food. We could feed twice the world's current population with the oil that we burn
today." To verify their initial findings, Power Tech turned to BC Research. Formerly a provincial organization with two Nobel Prize winners among its alumni, the agency was privatized in 1993. Heading the contract work on the Snaper battery for the past year has been Elod Gyenge, an electrochemist.
"This technology is not an incremental improvement, it is a major advance--a breakthrough," he declares. "The nickel-iron battery, which I am confident will also work in a reticulated foam form, will offer even higher power densities." BC Research has now dedicated a lab to Power
Tech work, it has taken an equity position in the Nevada company, and it is about to manufacture working battery prototypes. Power Tech's shares have bounced as high as US$2 apiece on the U.S. OTCBB (Over The Counter Bulletin Board). It currently fetches 70 cents. Mr. Balak comments, "Our technology can be readily adopted as the battery used in conventional cars. It is also a superior product for hybrid electric cars and vehicles powered by fuel cells, which require batteries. We are currently in negotiation with a major battery manufacturer."
"This technology could economically power a pure battery car, even in its lead acid form, with a range of 350 to 400 miles," Mr. Snaper asserts. " That's because our batteries offer reduced weight while raising the electrical output." But the investment remains speculative, cautions the inventor. "I know a fair amount about patents, and ours is strong. BC Research is helping us tighten it up more. But
there's always the unpredictable risk of a workaround that evades our patent protection. A big company could snooker us if we don't keep moving as quickly as possible."
Metallic foam offers more electricity from less weight
As an inventor, Alvin Snaper specializes in solutions, which work well and, equally importantly, can be readily adapted by industry. The batteries being developed by Power Technology, Inc. are a case in point.
"Our lead acid model will deliver twice the power output, cut the battery weight by two-thirds and reduce recharging time by at least half. Yet battery manufacturers will not have to retool to any great degree," Mr. Snaper promises.
A conventional car battery consists of 13 lead plates bathed in a sulfuric acid/water solution. The plates are formed by applying a paste of fine lead powder onto a lead alloy grid. The chemical makeup of the paste determines whether each plate acts as a negative or positive terminal. Current is generated by chemical reaction between the lead
pastes and sulphuric acid. The lead alloy grid inside the plate provides structural strength and acts as a conductor to carry away the current. Mr. Snaper's team has replaced the lead alloy grid with a reticulated foam pad. This metallic foam consists of many fine strands in a honeycomb pattern, strong enough to give the plate structural strength yet using 90% less metal. Powdered lead paste is then applied to the foam pad, forming a plate. The many strands that make up the foam expose at least 100 times more surface area to the paste, enabling the pad to conduct more electricity away while the chemical reaction is taking
place. "The concept is simple and exceptionally effective. In hindsight, you wonder why no one thought of this before but that's the way it often is with the best ideas," says Steven Splinter, director of chemical and electrochemical processes for BC Research Inc.
A lead acid battery can only be recharged several hundred times because electricity-blocking lead sulphate accumulates on the plate. A nickel-iron battery, although constructed the same way, suffers no such buildup, giving it extraordinarily longer life. "Nickel can also be made
into a reticulated foam, with all of the same advantages for manufacturing a battery," Mr. Snaper reports. "Because we will use 90% less metal, we will produce an extremely cost-effective nickel-iron battery for use in vehicles. Results so far are running ahead of our initial expectations." Mike Byfield Photo cap: Scientists Snaper (left) and Farrell: The money is good--and the activities are better than at a senior's centre. Photo cap: The Power Technology staff: Their lab is nicknamed the 'old folks' home.'

aunuggets

(05/19/2001; 10:22:12 MDT - Msg ID: 53992)

Canuck

Looking back at the Trade Deficit announcement yesterday, I think Turkey Hunter may be on target. Announcement released at noon, AP wires released the story precisely at 12:05 (just enought time to write it up for release), and other news services following up shortly thereafter. It all fits.

As far as the London close time coincidence, I have to wonder if it may have been London keeping the price in check so they could "blame" it on New York, OR that the trade deficit announcement was withheld until noon so New York could show a little "muscle flexing", and show the LBMA bunch who was "really boss" going into their weekend conference. A little chess game strategy perhaps ? Throw a few eggs (create a "noticeable" loss in the UK sales column for the week) just prior to the conference to help sway other certain PTBs into "reconsidering" their future endeavors ?

Next week should be interesting ! We may finally be at the point where the "accumulators" are ready to let their profits run in the physicals, and give up the ghost on the short paper side. Not that those involved on BOTH SIDES are not one in the same........ hummmmmmm ? You don't suppose the "big accumulators" are the same ones driving down the price levels for the sake of short paper trades all these years, do you.....??? (big grin)

aunuggets

(05/19/2001; 10:43:31 MDT - Msg ID: 53993)

Peter Asher - "The Sting"

usagold.com msg#: 53964BINGO !!

Cavan Man

(05/19/2001; 11:10:45 MDT - Msg ID: 53994)

JMB

Thanks. 'Tis.....CM

Chris Powell

(05/19/2001; 11:24:37 MDT - Msg ID: 53995)

Durban Roodeport Deep supports GATA again and again

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/780We wouldn't have gotten started or
succeeded with the Durban conference
without them.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

USAGOLD

(05/19/2001; 11:38:47 MDT - Msg ID: 53996)

Looking for reasons why?

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.htmlThe following is the Commentary & Review for Thursday, May 17, 2001, the day before the breakout rally. I've just spent much of the morning reviewing the articles being published at the major news services. Most of cause and effect centers on the gold carry trade. As I metioned in a Bloomberg interview yesterday, I do believe that the perception that the carry trade is unwinding has served as the prime mover in this rally and that it didn't start yesterday but at the beginning of the year when lease rates went up and stayed up. That has been a flashing yellow light for the gold industry no matter what niche you might occupy in it. Yesterday's rally might have triggered by a singular event (at this time unknown), but the fundamentals that made it possible to occur with such have been building for quite some time.

One analyst pointed out the negative real rate of return on dollar-based investments, something we've alluded to on more than one occasion here. We agree that the pinching real return is a major fundamental cause for gold's renewal, but we also see it as a potential drag to the equities markets calling to question the recent Wall Street rally. The real rate of return equates to the yield on Treasury paper less the inflation rate and taxes. Apply the formula and you discover that there is not much return on dollar based investments -- a strong incentive for gold ownership.

John Ing's observation that one bank which had been a lone-seller had stepped out of the way could have been a signal to the other traders. One thing I would add to the analysis below is that a major bullion bank could be trying to buy metal to square Centaur's books and encountering difficulty. We wouldn't be surprised if that were the case. It wasn't that long ago that reports surfaced that Greece decided to transfer reserves to the ECB in the form of gold, didn't have enough on hand to meet the requirement(or need) and went into the market to obtain it. Rumors circulated that Greece had difficulty finding gold and ended u[ making a private deal with Russia to obtain the needed metal. This hasn't been verified, but the recurrent stories of a bullion shortage have been a major psychological factor in this market for the past three months or so.

The optimism in the stories I read are infectious, particularly the comparisons to the 1999 run-up, but to me there is a major difference between then and now: This rally is built on sound fundamentals not just relative to gold, but the economy and currency markets as whole, i.e. the real rate of return on the dollar and the inflation building in nearly every economy in the world, particularly the U.S., and the prospect that all currencies, including the dollar, are likely to depreciate against goods and services even if the dollar manages to remain the belle of an increasingly shabby ball. This is another strong incentive for gold ownership by investors all over the world.

The speculators are seemingly catching on. The real story on the Comex last week was that shorts were reversing their positions and going long. That's because they probably see the fundamentals developing as described above.

Here's Thursday's report in which we tried to capture in short form the psychological changes we had detected in the gold market. For those who don't have access to our regular Commentaries, the link above will take you to our registration section. We invite your participation.

--------

"Knowing as much as I do about the way central banks all over the world
are printing money like confetti, again to help people pay for the rising
price of oil, I now expect the biggest and longest gold boom in a
century." Adrian van Eck/ Money Forecast Letter

5/17/01 (www.usagold.com). . . .Gold continued to
rally in international markets on inflation concerns, short
covering and the growing perception that the gold carry trade--
a long time deterrent to higher gold prices -- has gone into
retrograde. "It's [gold's] back, just when everyone buried it
and gave up on it," said John Ing, president of brokerage
Maison Placements Canada. "There is a whiff of inflation in
the air. There's no doubt about that. . .My expectation is that
the dollar is the last bubble to burst and when that takes place
that will be the last impetus to take gold through US$300."

The article linked to the right under the title Perfect Storm
for Rally in Gold Sector: Confluence of Factors
tells why this rally appears to have more gumption than rallies
in the recent past. Overall, the recent string of cuts against a
backdrop of rising prices, particularly energy prices, raises the
specter of rapid inflation in the months ahead. One clear sign
that this may be the case is reflected in a headline in the
Denver Post financial section this morning lamenting the fact
that mortgage rates continue to ratchet higher despite the Fed
rate cuts -- a more telling indicator of investors' long-term
concerns than the cheerleading squad at CNBC would care to
admit.

****************

Beyond the inflation concerns, the Fed rate cuts raise another
concern near and dear to the hearts of gold owners and
advocates the world over -- the gold carry trade. With the Fed
pushing down dollar yield rates on one hand and the gold
market pushing up gold lease rates on the other, the return
(and the fun) is being wrung out of the gold carry trade, and it
is the gold carry trade that has been widely blamed by the gold
bulls for the yellow metal's stubborn inability to rise in recent
years. The gold carry trade is a simple arbitrage mechanism
wherein gold is borrowed at a lesser rate and sold into the
market (which depresses the price). The proceeds are then
reinvested in dollar yield investments at a higher rate (which
helps the dollar). The London Bullion Market Association --
whose members broker these arrangements -- reported their
April gold turnover down a steep 12.5%. That could very well
be the largest drop since the LBMA started publishing its daily
volume figures. If nothing else such a precipitous drop in
volume clearly signals that something is changing, and
perhaps changing abruptly, in the gold lending business. If
you happen to be hopelessly short the gold market with a
string of loans outstanding to a bevy of shaky gold producers
who would be seriously damaged if the gold price were to
start rising, you are substantially more concerned now about
your position than you were 90 days ago when the first signs
emerged that something was "afoot in the gold market." One
would think that the lender would be seriously plotting a
short-covering strategy. ( See this month's edition of News
& Views now on the way if you haven't already received it.)
The bottom line is that if the gold carry trade is indeed
unwinding, the gold price will be the direct beneficiary.

****************

Along these lines, thebulliondesk.com reported a rumor
yesterday that Mike Price, apparently a heavy hitter in the gold
lending business working out of N.M. Rothschild & Sons
offices is leaving for greener pastures. Thebulliondesk.com
doesn't say why Mr. Price might be leaving -- and let's face it
the departure could be for any number of reasons -- however,
the timing does invite a question or two given the rapid,
deep-seated and potentially dangerous changes occurring in
the gold carry trade business. Don't forget it was Rothschild
that presaged the Washington Agreement with its call for
transparency among central banks in 1999. Recently
Rothschild has called for third world central banks to curtail
their gold lending practices inferring that it is no longer in their
best interest. Very few analysts entering the gold fray can
escape acknowledging Rothschild's critical role in the gold
market going all the way back to the time of Napoleon. That
influence is no less today than it was some 200 years ago. So
what happens at N.M. Rothschild & Sons, for better or
worse, is followed with a great deal of interest.

****************

Salomon Smith Barney's Leann Baker also seems to think we
are in for some changes in the gold market. In a report
released this morning titled Gold - A Discernible Shift, For
the Better, in Investor Sentiment, she says:

"In our view, the higher lease rates suggest
that central banks are less willing to lend gold
at subpar rates, and some in fact appear to be
setting "lease rate targets" below which they
will not lend. Moreover, we understand that
some major central banks lenders are now
lending further into the future, in turn
becoming less active in responding to
short-term lease rate fluctuations. Lease rates
have firmed despite an apparent reduction in
demand for borrowed gold both by
producers and by speculator short sellers.
Rising lease rates and declining interest rates
make it less likely that producers stand ready
to boost hedging activity if gold proves able
to successfully penetrate $275 resistance,
which bodes well for a more sustained move
higher at some point."

Ms. Baker goes on to offer a gold price estimate in the $275 to
$325 range for the rest of 2001 and 2002.

****************

None of this has been lost on gold investors the world over.
Bullion demand remains strong internationally and Lipper
reports over the weekend that gold stocks have suddenly
become a hot item, in fact the best performing sector, in the
world of equities. Rising gold stocks usually presage rising
gold prices.

That's it for the week, fellow goldmeisters -- a very
interesting one from the gold perspective. We invite you to
call with your questions and concerns, or to get a quote.

(05/19/2001; 12:41:47 MDT - Msg ID: 53997)

U.S. GOLD RESERVES --TOO LOW?

With the price of gold rising there may be little time for
the U.S. Treasury to begin buying gold to augment its gold
reserves at reasonable prices. The national interest requires that the U.S. treasury maintain gold reserves proportional with U.S. Gross Domestic Product and the status
of the US Dollar as the leading world currency.

Now is the time to do this while the price of gold is still low. There is evidence that China wishes to raise its gold
reserves. China who is already constructing a huge manufacturing base, could then have a substantial gold base upon which to push the Yuan into a prime world currency.

From a previously posted message, the following is reiterated as it is still applicable:

To restart the economy on an upward growth cycle again, the money supply
must be increased, interests rates lowered, and tax cuts legislated. In
order that this does not result in significant weakening of the
U.S.Dollar a portion of the budget surplus should be used to increase
U.S.Treasury Gold Reserves.
Boosting U.S. gold reserves would give internal stability to a the
U.S.currency which then can be safely increased in supply with lower
interest and tax rates leading to a resurgence of industrial production
and a restoration of a more favorable trade balance by increased
exports. It would be in the best interest of the United States.

AX

megatron

(05/19/2001; 13:01:16 MDT - Msg ID: 53998)

Cali Politics /Peter Asher

Your little speech yesterday was quite inspirational, Peter.
It does seem like they died in vane sometimes though, does it not? When one reads about the Cal. Democrats threatening to throw gas co. execs in jail for running a business in the free market, while watching and colluding with the Fed to debase the currency and 'loan' out assets for nothing. What is wrong with people, Peter? I can't understand it in any way. Would you jump out of a ship, today, into the north atlantic into a hail of bullets, run up a beach, and kill 7 or 8 'jerries' in the process to defend Diane Fein'scumbag@#!^@#*&^@#Stein's RIGHT to throw these men in jail???!!!????? Some of those executives may have fought in WWII,for christ sakes. What pieces of human garbage have the people of Cal. elected?

megatron

(05/19/2001; 13:11:29 MDT - Msg ID: 53999)

Interesting find?

The ultimate consequence of the attempt to �manage� the price of [?]
within too low of a safety margin, will cause exactly the opposite
effect of that which is desired. By setting the mode damping parameter
upper limit at $425 the system can achieve more far reaching, longer
term success, before a critical point would be reached. As the price
was allowed to extend into the upper range a number of previously
unattainable supplies would become available to us, thus allowing a
continuous[ manifold?] sequence. Adjusting the[?] variable gives the
system time to �breath� forcing new supply into market. Rather than
exhausting all available supplies and reaching the �catastrophe point�
at too low a value, the psychological effect of the new �extended
dynamic range� gives the[ equation?] the belief that new monies can now
be invested into production safely, and that new production can than be
utilized within 1 year. By exhausting the available resource at a
�compressed critical mode� level we are increasing the magnitude of a
�catastrophe� event, and a possibly unmanageable sudden jump to a new
volatility level. Various feedback effects and chaotic outputs would
become a distinct possibility.

auspec

(05/19/2001; 13:36:10 MDT - Msg ID: 54000)

Belgian & Post #53977

That was a very profound post, Sir Belgian, thanks for expounding. The very thing that makes the big miners/insiders powerful, speaking of management and ownership of AngloG and the like, is also the very same thing that gives us a clear window of observation and prognostication. The shares, especially the best connected miners, will run first because they are first in line for {inside} information. AngloGold is simply insider owned and operated. Yes.
Per your post "Goldholders are not acting as if gold is to disappear or become worthless". Yes, that is exactly right and all the cards are stacking that way. I am clearly on that page in spite of any delving/diving into Black Gold issues. We must reach a point where we believe that even if there is 50% more gold supply than commonly acknowledged IT IS NOT NECESSARILY BEARISH FOR GOLD! That is where I am, whereas most are comfortably just sticking with the official numbers. A lot of the reason the Black Gold issues pull at me is because I am so bullish on gold, my entire mindset tells me that it is ready to fly high, and shall we say there is a lot on the line? So I am covering the bases, looking for {w}holes in the plan, just in case this is all one GIANT misunderstanding {Ha}. 200,000 tons of gold above ground is my belief at this point, but if it were 500,000 I would still be bullish as this is obviously playing out that way, according to all the signs. Rc has pointed out to me that a large portion of any gold that might exist over and obove the 140,000 ton figure would be likely in the form of JEWELRY and never going to hit the market. I can fully appreciate that, but believe it is NOT just jewelry present.
Two years ago $290 was defended successfully and again since then. My gut tells me the next line of defense is higher now to allow a little more lattitude for errors, lets say $315. As we've seen before this number could be overshot, that is not the critical part, but it would have to be brought back in line subsequently. a skirmish was won this week and the overall war is in the bag for the Gold Allies, but more battles loom ahead.
Some of us sit back patiently and just wait, some of us kick and scream and make waves that hit the Isle of Lilliput, some of us try to figure out every conceivable angle. Just simply issues of personality and there is a place in the gold camp for all {I hope}. But if you don't know what and who the insiders are you cannot come up with a strategy such as your insight into AU and others. Be sure to tell us if AU flatlines or worse!
Per your "The gold management by the oligo-poly-archy, went {most probably} a big step too far." Yes they did and they intended even more carnage, but they underestimated the "times" and their foes. A shame, no? the Lilliputians no less!

Peter Asher

(05/19/2001; 13:40:21 MDT - Msg ID: 54001)

megatron msg#: 53998)

1) The collective anarchy called Democracy permits 51% of the people to put their champion in (attempted) control over the other 49%

2) People vote for those who represent the embodiment of their own thoughts, feelings and intentions.

This should enable you to compute the answer to your question.

PS, some of my best friends are part of that 49 % {:-)

Netking

(05/19/2001; 13:51:38 MDT - Msg ID: 54002)

Australian market braces for gold stocks fever

http://www.smh.com.au/news/0105/20/biztech/biztech1.htmlLooks like the Aussies want to join the party
------------------------------------------------------------
(Link)"...This is a bounce back after the gold price was weakened by central banks selling off their reserves, and speculation over the prospect of slightly higher inflation,...Gold's 5 per cent rise, its biggest gain in 15 months, came as buying by speculators extended a rally fuelled by reduced supplies. Production cuts in America and South Africa have reduced fears about oversupply of the metal..."

Netking

(05/19/2001; 14:21:10 MDT - Msg ID: 54003)

Silver & Gold - Free market price targets - Cont.

http://www.financialsense.com/transcriptions/Morgan2.htmFinancial Sense Dave Morgan interview on silver'sample.

"...Jim, as you know I am a silver analyst, but I am also an economist. During the last great inflation in this country, most analysts looked at the Money Supply as the number one indicator of economic life. People were very aware that the classic definition of inflation is simply " an increase in the money supply." There is a classic and elegant way to predict the price of gold using two things. First the M1 money supply, and secondly, the amount of gold available. Right now M1 ( which consists of cash and checking account- type money), what I refer to as " near cash," or is money that can be spent on a moment's notice, is around $ 660 billion dollars. The Treasury reports that there is approximately 265 million ounces of US gold. So simply divide 660B/256M and the dollar price of gold is about $2500. Now before you call me a kook, I would like to point out that Forbes Magazine published an article recently called " Gold at $2500 per ounce." So you see, it is not a number that is so out of reach as far as Forbes is concerned.

Now getting to silver. Keep in mind that there is less available. From recent history, we know that silver, because it is a smaller market, tends to move faster. We could look at the average ratio of silver to gold. Let's say we have silver at a 50-to-1 ratio would give us a $50 dollar silver price (it's old high). However, if silver accelerated and got back to it's classic ratio of 16-to-1, that would put silver at over $150 per ounce. Lastly, if silver ever went to it's natural ratio, that is the ratio at which it is found in the earth of 10-to-1, then $250 ounce silver is possible. I know this sounds absurd, but chance favors the prepared mind. If you are not willing to accept my basic premise, then ignore the rest..."

Belgian

(05/19/2001; 14:42:57 MDT - Msg ID: 54004)

@ Mr Gresham

Central Banks are not impressing me anymore with their supposed Gold-management. They are bureaucrats, politically tied. I doubt that the re-grouping of Gold reserves from 12 Euro countries, under BIS, is an heroic act of conscious wisdom ? There was a large amount of the yellow stuff in the different vaults and they had to do something with it.
Maybe, I'm over-simplifying ? But if the EMU had the intention to build on increasing trust in the Euro with some kind of Gold-Confidence...they would have given other signals. It is the lack of positive Gold signals from the collective Goldholders, that was making the private wealth holders making feel uneasy. The 30.000 tonnes (?) official gold is less than 1/3 of the total gold (above + underground). Aren't we focussing too much on this CB-gold ?
Isn't this CB-gold at the service of more powerful private holders, in the same way that captains of industry are paying for the politicians favors and services ???????????

If one day, people start questionning their currency and still live with the firm perception that official gold has been sold...what would be their reaction if suddenly the media restart a pro-gold campaign ? And what does it take to make the majority start doubting about the value of all confetti and the dollar in particular ? Right, a systemic shock. Speculative extremes with unavoidable defaults and exponential depreciation with economic disaster. Maybe the master goldholders think the time is ripe for such an accident ? They behaved accordingly to it with the management of POG in order to accumulate the maximum possible. What alternative do they have with the above presumed scenario or outcome ? What would you do when convinced about an economic winter knocking at the front door ? I do believe in economic seasons. Global growth has to freeze before a new spring will make it blossom again.
As goldphiles, we are the only ones, who tend to accept such a winter projection. The halt of natural organic and expansive growth has been masked by a speculative extension of it. Hot air must be replaced by tangibles. Revaluation of a useful service and honest (proportionnal) price for products. If central banks should wisely anticipate such kind of a winter and have the genuine intention to stop or decrease the speed of depreciation...they would have brought gold already into the spotlight. Exactly the opposite is taking place. Will see ??

Auspec : USTB30 = season barometer ?

How can we possibly know if friday late 15$ spike has the same allures of the sept. '99 event ? Is all gold traded officially ? We know so little and suggest so much.
As long as we don't know the possible buyers of CB gold, we have no clue or what so ever. Therefore, I remain convinced that the master buyers will decide when Gold will go for its proper value. And a value that they also will decide on.

Henri

(05/19/2001; 15:10:17 MDT - Msg ID: 54005)

Trail Guide...further to question "Henri #53912" have re-read trail post

I have re-read the Trail markers and think I now see where you are coming from on the gold escrow issue...maybe.

You stated in Trail Post marker #72 "A Tree in the Making #4

"...Indeed,
a currency without a country! In order to implement such a currency, gold would require laws that would keep it within it's wealth concept. Gold in possession would be wealth in
possession as long as governments could not use it as credit money. In my discussion with Econoclast, I took his legal meanings and applied them to this "wealth without a country" position.

Keeping gold out of the fiat arena would be more simple than many hard school advocates envision. The key to that is found in the implementation of international law. The leading economic countries (EuroZone in the future) would have but to establish a protocol that forbid the enforcement of collateral attachment anytime physical gold is traded, lent or involved in a trade. In this context, no banker would lend you gold to buy a house if, in a default, he could not claim your house in a court of law. Even private parties would never lend gold if the asset behind the loan
could not be claimed for nonpayment. It's that simple. With a stroke of written law, the trading of gold as wealth would become a final payment with no possible credit implications. Our official fiats and wealth without a country would never again function as one.

..."
End FOA re-post.

OK, so now I think I hear that (rephrasing your words above)international (at least for the near future in the Euro-zone) law will be established banning collateral attachment anytime gold is involved in a trade.

Does this mean that a bank will not be able to extend credit lines of fiat for a collateral offered in the form of gold? Default on the loan repayment would allow attachment of that gold held in escrow.

Gold held in escrow against fiat loans will allow appreciated gold value in fiat terms to be used without the liquidation of the underlying asset. This is not really a loan as the gold is held as collateral against repayment of the fiat. Under current law in the US, if liquidation is forced, the liquidation of the asset would trigger govt claim of a capital gains tax obligation.

Is it the intention of the proposed law to free gold from these types of govt claims as well? Since you mention gold still being lent, I perceive that is not the intent of these laws to forbid the loaning of gold.

So, having worked myself into confusion again, Are you saying that no-one would lend gold privately (individuals or private banks)or publicly(Banks as arms of the govts or govts themselves)since there would be no way to guarantee the return of the gold since the underlying asset acquired by way of the gold loan could not be attached in lieu of repayment of the gold? (Wow, that's a run-on sentence...please excuse the grammatical faux pas.)

If that is what you are saying, then that in itself does not exclude those who posess gold from placing it in escrow (at risk) against a fluctuating credit line of fiat. In this case the gold itself is the collateral against repayment of fiat. If there is a fiat inflation against a free gold valuation, the fiat credit line would expand. If a fiat deflation against free gold, then the credit line would shrink and margin recalls for borrowed fiat could be in order with the default resulting in the alternate change in technical ownership of a fraction of the escrowed gold.

So on a global scale, if govts should lend fiat (say Euro's) to another nation with gold held in collateral agreement, all they need to do is manipulate a deflation in their own currency to initiate a net inflow of gold into their coffers. Better yet, bet that the borrowing country would out inflate their own currency and again stimulate the net flow of gold into their coffers. The increased flow of gold into the the govt coffers further justifies a more deflationary valuation of their fiat (fiat worth more against free gold if the fiat supply is not expanded to maintain a certain trading range) and ultimate transfer of the entire gold escrow tranch in lieu of return of the fiat loan.

Is this what Clinton did with Treasury gold? oops who would have thought that the europeans would not expand liquidity to keep in step with the US pace. Is it all really just a currency war of relative inflations to see which way the gold can be forced to flow? Did Clinton blow out his euro borrowing credit line and not able to repay except in greenbacks? Is this how the treasury gold was turned into "custodial gold"? I guess the treasury could truthfully then say they had not sold or lent (US citizen owned)gold or gold options and futures against delivery of Treasury gold...they just placed the treasury gold into escrow to guarantee loans of fiat they could not produce themselves.

But I digress...

I suppose this is a good reason not to allow govts or banks to take gold in escrow against fiat loans, but what of private individuals. If I had some gold (I wish)and I wanted something badly enough to trade some gold for it we would have gold-on-the-road again. Nothing wrong with that I suppose, value for fair value. But if I wanted something and I wanted to establish credit with a fiat loaning party, why shouldn't I be allowed to put my gold "at risk" to secure the fiat loan and at a lower interest rate.

I think what the law should do is forbid the use of already encumbered gold from being further used as a vehicle of credit. That way gold in escrow could not be loaned out for interest payable in gold or fiat while it is already in escrow. Better yet, it also guarantees that any gold that is not owned by the party entering into the escrow arrangement cannot be placed into escrow as collateral. Is this what you are saying when you say that the collateral cannot be attached?

trying to learn,
your fellow knight
and attentive student,
Henri

Belgian

(05/19/2001; 15:33:27 MDT - Msg ID: 54006)

Every commodity has its Central Bank...

Any commodity has to face external influences that affect its price. All producers learned to live with that.
That's why I've compared POG behaviour with some other commodities, with the predictable result that there is no such thing as Gold. The more, the miners are letting us believe that Gold is only but a jewelry-commodity...the more I don't believe them. POG hasn't been behaving as a commodity. It is a complete different and unique pattern.
To be explained as being managed by wealth accumulators who react on macro-economics with oligo-leverage on their gold holdings. What is the purpose of the increasing amount of Investment-Gold ? We can't sell it with the argument of a steady increasing price (value), automatically adjusting to the permanent currency depreciation. Is investment-gold, accumulated to sell it later into the jewelry consumption ? No it isn't. What if the expected disaster is happening during our accumulation life time ? Are the goldholders obliged to "Organise" artificial price-runs ? I'm afraid they have been doing this the last 20 years. Is this the reason why Gold must be promoted as "speculative" ?
Any toughts ?

Camel

(05/19/2001; 15:45:34 MDT - Msg ID: 54007)

End game for domestic oil

Oreo -I thought you said you had outgrown your "high school obsesion" with Rand. All the energy efficiancy propsosals put forth by Bush last week were in existance in 1980 when Reagan took over.Back then there was a chance for taking prudent and timely action to avoid catastrophy. That time has passed.Insted he stuck his head in the sand and let the "free" markets dceide .Now we have a crisis. Fourty dollar a barrel oil will be complete poisen for our economy and there are no set of circumstances in place to stop it. Let the brute forces of dumb nature rule and we will be jolted from crisis to crisis like animals. Far better to use the mind to anticipate and solve problems before they develop.

R Powell

(05/19/2001; 16:00:04 MDT - Msg ID: 54008)

Looking for reasons why

From USAGOLD (53996), "As I mentioned in a Bloomberg interview yesterday, I do believe that the perception that the gold carry trade is unwinding has served as the prime mover in this rally..."
Michael, can you provide us with a link to the Bloomberg interview?
What you suggest makes sense, in that the conditions necessary for the gold carry trade no longer exist. The environment has changed so the trade fades away and it's constant price depression is no longer. Get along, little POG, you're free to go now.
The singular event triggering Friday's rally may have been the chartists' (technical analysts') perception of $275 as critical. It's breach may have set off but orders already on the books. They will claim this technical move was the reason for POG's rise.
Whether for technical reasons or from sound (and perhaps now unmanaged) fundamental reasons, with as you suggest, a major policy change in the gold carry trade which may induce a major change in all lending practices, we might now have a totally new environment in which POG will thrive. I can now see that formerly outrageous estimates for POG may be concievable. I always thought four digit POG would happen but it would seem, if all the pieces of the puzzle fall together and if POG gets an added totally blind (unjustified) boost by the unknowing momentum investors that supported dot coms, well, who knows?
Are we ready? Gold and silver may be the desired objects in the next world mania buying frenzy. It would fit in with the once burnt paper (stock) invester now looking for an investment he can put his hands on. Something real and something to cure the speculative craving too.
One last note. However logically or rationally we analysis this situation, I do hope Miner46 has another big, juicy chicken ready for Monday!
Rich

R Powell

(05/19/2001; 16:04:51 MDT - Msg ID: 54009)

Typo

May I change but orders to buy orders in my previous post? If the wife hears anything about but orders on the internet, I'm history!
Rich

MO VER MEG

(05/19/2001; 16:14:09 MDT - Msg ID: 54010)

Black Blade

I am going to be in Casper, Wyoming on the 9th or the 23rd of June (visiting my brother who lives there). If it fits your schedule, I would like to meet you - breakfast would be on me. I will pick the weekend which works for you. If it cannot work, don't worry. Looking forward to hearing from you.

MO VER MEG

Topaz

(05/19/2001; 16:30:18 MDT - Msg ID: 54011)

Bleeder update

Red Alert! - The Aussie dollar/ Gold price sits at A$541.
If I'm reading things correctly, we'll see a raft of metal to market come Monday as Aussie Miners attempt to protect their hedge books. (maybe the Grand plan)
No glaringly obvious reason for the Spike would indicate an after-market w-end announcement is in the offing....none so far?
Perhaps big money is finally sick of the tendency lately whereby a rate cut is accompanied by an "increase" in relative value of a currency.
Meanwhile it is getting easier to imagine a Juggernaut trading Bloc emerging from the Atlantic coast of Spain to the Pacific coast of China - trading Euro's and saving Freegold - and where land borders, previously perceived as liabilities, are now viewed as assets.

auspec

(05/19/2001; 16:41:40 MDT - Msg ID: 54012)

POG Friday

So the selling dropped off Friday.................hmmmmmmm.

aunuggets

(05/19/2001; 16:53:13 MDT - Msg ID: 54013)

Will The REAL Parents Of "Spike" Please Stand Up ?

Take your pick(s), or add your own......

Carry Trade
Shorts
Longs
Lower Interest Rates
Higher (much higher!) Trade Deficit
275 Level Buy Orders
Weaker Dollar
GATA (thank you)
Inflation Fears (realities)
High CB Sales Volume
Dropping CB Sales Volume
Falling Equities Markets
Investor Realization That wecan.com.... Can't anymore
The REAL "Wizards of Oz"
London
New York
USA Gold Forum (smile)
The Waking of "Gulliver's Masses"
Falling Production / Mine Closures
4 Letter Word (GOLD) Uttered on CNBC
New Fiat
Old Fiat
Fiat, Fiat, Fiat !!!!
China
Greenspan
The Fed

ad nausium........

How can we possibly blame or credit any one of them for the combined involvement of all ?

While the Friday spike sure appeared to "come out of nowhere", crediting both "cause AND effect" to any single source or factor seems questionable. Kinda like blaming the cop who arrested you for his "being there" to catch you in the act. If he hadn't been, you "never would have been caught". So it just HAS to be the cop's fault.... (grin)

aunuggets

(05/19/2001; 17:18:15 MDT - Msg ID: 54014)

Huh ?????

TheStreet.com article by Don Luskin:

"....surging gold prices marking the end of the equities bear market"........

Excuse me ? Methinks this gent's boat is running at full-steam in reverse.

R Powell

(05/19/2001; 17:33:49 MDT - Msg ID: 54015)

Limit dreamin

According to Comex rules, there is no limit on the spot price or immediate future's contract. The limit on other months is $75/ounce for gold and $1.50/ounce for silver. These are limits per day or trading session. Trading is not suspended at these levels but trading can not exceed these levels.
Limit up or down days are not frequent but neither are they extremely unusual. Lumber was "limit up" again on Friday. Some people claim there is a corrolation between the two as both may be inflation indicaters. ??
For what it's worth, there's an old belief that soybean prices rise and fall in sequence with silver but I don't remember why nor do I put much faith in such old wives tales.
Go Gata, Go soybeans!!
Rich

Mr Gresham

(05/19/2001; 17:54:18 MDT - Msg ID: 54016)

aunuggest, Belgian

aunuggets: Looks like Spike is a love child, conceived at an orgy.

Belgian: FOA doesn't give us much of view of who the "master goldholders" in and around Europe are, versus the ECB and its founders. What relationship, sponsorship or conflicts exist? Yes, FOA sounds more pro-gold than anything printed we've seen coming out of the EMU's documents. Perhaps he is trying to "lead" the discussion a bit among the factions there?

Did no one in EMU's bureaucracy or hierarchy write a report or make a speech talking about "gold as a wealth holding in the background" to the Euro? We Ameri-centric thinkers imagine we know a little about the "billionaire next door" here, but we would admit to no conception about who they are in Europe, and what their plans or goals might be with this Euro project. The insights from within a culture might carry us a little way?

Old Yeller

(05/19/2001; 18:06:32 MDT - Msg ID: 54017)

Topaz;#54011

In regards to the Aussie hedgers hitting the bid on Monday,hopefully we'll see them buying instead.I'm no expert on their hedge position,but I seem to remember they've already hedged something like 70% of their in-ground reserves.Too much of a good (sarcastic)thing,perhaps?

There seems to be a totally different tone to the market,the producers must have noticed this.Taken in combination with Bobby Godsell's change of heart on hedging,as well as the pressure on Barrick lately,let's hope these fools let it run for a change.

Have a golden weekend.

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/19/2001; 19:10:03 MDT - Msg ID: 54018)

working-kirk @ # 53692

Sir

You said, "Hillbilly mentioned that if it were going to be a true breakout, we should see a substantial price rise over the weekend."

You asked, "How does this rally look to compared to the rally after the Washington Agreement in August of 1999? What is the highest price for gold and silver before the goons hammered it down? What was the greatest gain in a single day for gold and silver at that time?"

I thought I might try to help all of us put this into perspective as best we can. I have reprinted the entire forum archives during this period so as to post excerpts from the forum during these days. As I read the posts during that time I am surprised to find how sketchy my memory has been. For example I remembered the period of time when POG was above $300 as being much shorter than it was. I thought it was less than a week. Also I had forgotten that silver had a good run during this time also. I have always diversified in silver and thought that a run in silver would have been more vivid in my memory.

Let me make a quick correction. I believe that the Washington Agreement was hammered out during the weekend meetings of the G7 nations, held in Europe, on Saturday and Sunday, September 25 and 26, 1999 rather than in the month of August.

By reading the excerpts, which will follow as soon as I can get them prepared, I expect your questions concerning that period will be answered in part. The next two weeks or so must unfold before we can really have a good comparison. Many things are the same. One thing stands out as totally different: -- the uncertainties accompanying Y2K were looming just three months away. We do have similar uncertainties such as the energy crisis and the specter of deep recession on the horizon, generally accepted propaganda to the contrary. The greatest difference in this area is that we had a date certain in 1999 and do not have a date certain this time around. I do not consider these ominous threats to be primary, though I do believe that, when we have a move such as what seems to be coming and what happened in 1999, these ominous threats do exacerbate the situation.

Very respectfully,

HBM

harold

(05/19/2001; 20:10:33 MDT - Msg ID: 54019)

weekend coverage

Can anyone provide additional information on amount of press the rise in POG received this weekend? Louis Ruckeiser casually/briefly mentioned it, David Johnson on NPR added some merit to it... I was wondering if Barron's or Investor's Business Daily, or Financial Times etc. gave any prominant press. Some observations: many of my friends trade equities and I've been telling them for some time now to buy AU shares. "gold hasn't done squat" is the common response from every one of them. Cuz' is an accountant for many in the entertainment industry. His clients' brokers have been advising "privately" as of last month to buy gold shares. What happens when John Q Public finally steps up to the plate to buy?

Zenidea

(05/19/2001; 20:26:59 MDT - Msg ID: 54020)

Parents of Spike ? Aunuggets

Laundered Russian Loot of the elite sitting in a hard-drive in the BOA simply telexed from one part of THE harddrive to another in the name of a surrogate Bank (spot the island) that has no physical structures and acting as a haven in readyness for the Euro to pounce ?.

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/19/2001; 20:34:21 MDT - Msg ID: 54021)

USAGOLD forum excerpts: All times BMCT (Branson, Mo. Central Time)

Day (minus - 2) and countingUSAGOLD forum excerpts: All times BMCT (Branson, Mo. Central Time)

Friday, 09/24/99 09:17:47BMCT (Goldfly @ # 14260) "Hey look! I love you guys too. But look at spot!! ****$270.00******$270.20******$270.30****$270.50*****
Townie!!!!Zoom�.Zoom�.ZOOOOOM!!!!!
Gandalf!!! Call on the Ents!!!! The Nazguls are in disarray!!!!
Whoooaaaa!!!!!�Whoooaaaaa!!!!!Whooaaaaa!!!!!!
(Goldfly is excited�)"

Friday, 09/24/99 10:34:27BMCT (USAGOLD @ # 14270) "Today� Gold Report: Frayed Nerves Could Lead to Major Breakout Next Week�"

Friday, 09/24/99 13:17:46BMCT (Farfel @ # 14292) "Still Staying Away From Gold. The recent rally in gold is encouraging but has to be kept in perspective�"

Friday, 09/24/99 15:42:38BMCT (SteveH @ # 14306) "Rally? (link provided) XAU technicals looking very good per one TA person."

Friday, 09/24/99 16:03:29BMCT (SteveH @ # 14308) "someone at kitco heard CNBC say: some banks are in short squeeze"

Friday, 09/24/99 19:55:54BMCT (TownCrier @ # 14315) "�comment from last Friday's GOLDEN VIEW: -----"I wish gold would just DO something�anything!"� My, how quickly things change."

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/19/2001; 20:39:04 MDT - Msg ID: 54022)

USAGOLD forum excerpts: All times BMCT (Branson, Mo. Central Time)

Day (minus 1) and countingSaturday, 09/25/99 11:52:46BMCT (Goldspoon @ # 14347 "Hi Ho Silver"�

Saturday, 09/25/99 20:11:59BMCT (FOA @ # 14375) "�Got silver? Don't need it, cause I got gold! We shall see�"

Saturday, 09/25/99 20:36:56BMCT (Leigh @ # 14378) "FOA, Do you think silver is worth holding as a commodity, the way you would hold platinum? Don't you think the prices will go very high as silver reserves are depleted? Or do you think gold will rise the highest?"

Saturday, 09/25/99 20:55:32BMCT (Canuck @ # 14381) "G-7 Meeting (link provided) This report seems to go back and forth from currency intervention needs to take place, to currency intervention wasn't talked about! What did these guys do all day, slug beer and complain about their wives?"

Saturday, 09/25/99 22:46:05BMCT (TownCrier @ # 14396) "Lightening strikes in the night! The Columbian Central Bank held an emergency meeting this Saturday evening and scrapped its peso's exchange rate trading band for a free floating (sinking?) currency instead."

Saturday, 09/25/99 23:19:52BMCT (TownCrier @ # 14397 "G7 agrees yen rise not normal-Japan's Miyazawa (link provided) Has Japan now taken a green light to inflate their yen supply like a balloon?"

Black Blade

(05/19/2001; 20:41:15 MDT - Msg ID: 54023)

RE: MO VER MEG

I am sure that you will enjoy Casper, WY. You might want to check out Sanford's if you appreciate excellent microbrews. If you go north out of Casper on the freeway, you may notice a lodge-style log building with a sign that says Petroleum Club. I try to get there on Fridays for educational speeches and socializing with others in the Petroleum business. Unfortunately I am currently living in Sheridan and at times in Gillette working for a new client in the Powder River Basin so I would not likely be able to meet up with you. Bonedaddy apparently lives somewhere in this area I believe. I have relocated from Gold Country in north Nevada to an area about 3 hours east of Yellowstone and I have a nice view of the Bighorn Mountains. I am glad to pass on the Gold country as the gold mining companies have essentially destroyed their own businesses. Besides, there are better opportunities here and it looks like the hunting will be fantastic. I went turkey hunting a couple of times recently and was lucky enough to bag a couple of toms. It looks as if the petroleum boom will last for years. There are not enough drill rigs available either. In fact I have located one for my client that is being refurbished (essentially rebuilt from scratch). The oil and gas people are trying like hell to steal rigs, crews, geologists, company hands, support businesses, etc. from each other. The competition is that intense. I have come across many former mining personnel who I have known and they are not going back. The mines simply can't afford us anymore. Besides, the rising costs of energy as long-term contracts expire will sink many of them and they will close up unless gold goes into the $500/oz. range or better. They have high-graded their deposits to the point of beyond repair leaving a lot of reserves unrecoverable. It is a shame, but there is no future in US based Gold mining. I have seen so much incompetence at the highest levels of management. Most of these people have no background in mining - most are merely MBAs or someone's son-in-law, etc. I currently only have stock in 3 gold miners (HGMCY, GOLD, and T.FN) and most of my current gold holdings and gold purchases going forward are in physical gold. Of course I have a nice position in energy shares as well. If you get to Sheridan we might meet up for a few cold ones sometime. Cheers!

- Black Blade

JMB

(05/19/2001; 20:42:46 MDT - Msg ID: 54024)

FREDDIE and FANNY

After reading Doug Noland's comments regarding the GSE's, I took a peek at the FRE & FNM charts. Did I see a massive broadening top, a giant coil ready to spring up or down, or some kind of a consolidation triangle?

Being the eternal pessimist, I suspect that it's a broadening top which has coiled up to a point where it has to find relief by gapping down through the support...there's alot of anxiety out there which could really turn to fear if these two RICO candidates do break.

With this gold move creating all sorts of havoc in the derivatives markets and a downward market cap adjustment for the GSE's looming, is this the beginning of the systemic economic meltdown that so many of us have predicted? Or is this just a search for equilibrium?

I have a funny feeling that we're going to have a bank holiday before this mess finds equilibrium.

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/19/2001; 20:54:14 MDT - Msg ID: 54025)

Just a Note before posting excerpts from day 1

Just a short note before I post excerpts from Sunday, September 26, 1999 which I will call Day 1.

I look at these excerpts as a way for all of us to learn from the last experience. It was a great learning experience, do you not agree? I am so glad that 1999 was not the "Big One". It has given all of us more time to accumulate.

We will smile at each other, we will laugh and have fun with these excerpts, but most of all we will enjoy knowing we are not in mixed company. We are all in the same titanic and we are all striving to make sure, our life boat, and hopefully, we will have an extra big life boat to help those who have not stumbled upon so great a gathering place to learn and prepare for any and all occasions.

Working-kirk, let me encourage you to accumulate as much as you can even as the price rises until of course gold and or silver is overpriced. Every has a point where they will become less attactive for accumulation purposes. I will not know where that price is until the "Big One" has arrived. Personally I do not think this is the "Big One". I will be pleasantly surprised if it is but like you say, if not we all will have more time to accumulate at the fire sale prices.

Very respectfully,

HBM

PS: note that the discussion follows along the same pattern as what we experienced in 1999. Same topics, same questions about gold and silver, though we have a larger yet cozier group by far than we had two years ago.

Phoenix

(05/19/2001; 20:54:19 MDT - Msg ID: 54026)

Black Blade

Hey, Black Blade, do you ever get on the other side of the Big Horn mountains and pass through Cody? If you do, I can certainly provide some excellent beers and some good company. We can swap oil and gold stories and discuss the bright future we see.

A fellow petroleum junkie,

Phoenix

USAGOLD

(05/19/2001; 20:54:20 MDT - Msg ID: 54027)

RPowell. . ..

Yes, Rich, what you say is exactly what I think is going on. By the way, in all fairness, it wasn't me who first pointed this out but friend of the firm, Ian MacDonald, who first started talking about the effects of the disappearing arbitrage opporunity (borrowing gold, unloading it and buying Treasuries) over a month ago. When I first read Mr. MacDonald's quotes (on Reuters, I believe), I'm sure my pulse rate quickened. I knew what he was saying was very important and reported as much at the Commentary and Review page -- including his exact quote. The credit goes to him for being the first to sense that something major was going on.

My interview was on Bloomberg radio (New York) and I don't know if it actually made the air waves. Ken Natori, the Bloomberg reporter, was very interested in the gold carry trade. He's sending me a tape of what was actually run (if anything) and if worthwhile we will type up a transcript and post it. I do these interviews on a regular basis and most of the time they would be considered rudimentary as far as this Forum is concerned, but we all need to consider that there are all levels of education in progress out there and part of our collective mission is to raise the understanding of individuals no matter where they stand in their gold/monetary education. That's why there's no such thing as a "dumb" question here. Nor is there such a thing as "weak" post. Or an opinion that should remain unexpressed as long as civility remains the order of the day.

Onward, my fellow goldmeisters. As an esteemed member of this table once said, "We watch this new gold market together, yes?"

Black Blade

(05/19/2001; 20:54:36 MDT - Msg ID: 54028)

California's energy solution: turn off the hot tub

http://www.mb.com.ph/OPED/2001-05/OE052010.asp
Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO - Nearly unanimous criticism across California has followed US President George Bush's unveiling Thursday of a new energy plan. Yes, things have gotten so bad that people are actually turning off their hot tubs. "It's just too expensive to run," said Lyle Thomas, a schoolteacher in Felton on the outskirts of Silicon Valley. "I can't sit and relax when I think of all the energy I use for one good soak."

Black Blade: Oh My! I am soooo proud that these people are conserving energy by not soaking in hot tubs, what sacrifice! Hmmm� It might help if they not only build power plants, but maybe even allow some petroleum development and the building of transmission grid facilities. "�and they danced, sang, and played all summer�but not in their hot tubs." Geeezzz!

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/19/2001; 21:00:04 MDT - Msg ID: 54029)

USAGOLD forum excerpts: All times BMCT (Branson, Mo. Central Time)

Day 1 (Blast off)Sunday, 09/26/99 01:57:44BMCT (koan @ 14405) "silver vs. gold: I always was a day late. If gold rises, silver will rise faster as a ratio from their present prices. There is no way, that gold will rise without a corresponding rise in silver and most likely a greater rise, percentage wise�"

Sunday, 09/26/99 031:53:37BMCT (Aragorn III @ # 14408) "Mr. koan, perhaps you might elaborate, or else reconsider?

Sunday, 09/26/99 08:56:40BMCT (The Scot @ # 14416) "To All, Comparing Gold to Silver. When we consider the acquisition of bullion coins as a safeguard to paper currency, it is difficult for me to compare. Today with gold spot at approximately 268.00 US$ and silver at 5.23 US$ we will pay approximately $285.00 for US eagles and $7.80 for US Silver Eagles. This is about a 6% premium on Gold and 49% on Silver. How does this great difference come into play in future possible scenarios?

Sunday, 09/26/99 14:19:27BMCT ( The Scot @ # 14437) "Silver Question, Does anyone know the production cost (Average) for silver. From what I have observed, Gold production may be about $250.00 / oz. I was wondering about the cost of Silver.

Sunday, 09/26/99 17:56:35BMCT (Golden Truth @ # 14455) "TO F.O.A., TIME TO CHANGE SILVER INTO GOLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sunday, 09/26/99 18:04:19BMCT (Goldspoon @ # 14557) "Place your bets�..Step right up! The race is about to begin! Riding Gold Sun is FOA a proven track record indeed.. and Riding Silver Moon is Koan, a darker horse says many�.They don't look the same�they don't weigh the same�but both thought of as money by all�..J

Sunday, 09/26/99 19:14:32BMCT (USAGOLD @ # 14470) "New position on European Gold Sales�Transparency (link provided) I read this as bullish. We'll see what the market says. Gold up $1.20 in overnight market.

Sunday, 09/26/99 19:19:25BMCT (Peter Asher @ # 14472) "Lightening in Night" (link provided) UP 2.9

Sunday, 09/26/99 19:57:04BMCT (koan @ # 14479) "up $6.70! This is exciting! And I thought I was going to get a good nights rest.

Sunday, 09/26/99 19:58:01BMCT (FOA @ # 14480) It's all over people (link provided) TEXT � Statement on gold by European central banks. I'm going to be very, very busy for a while. Be back when I can! Good Luck ALLL FOA.
Sunday, 09/26/99 20:08:40BMCT (SteveH @ # 14483) "Holy cow batman and robin and all!

Sunday, 09/26/99 20:11:32BMCT (The Scot @ 14484) "UP, UP AND AWAY GOLD OVER 275.00

Sunday, 09/26/99 21:08:41BMCT (Canuck @ 14490) "FOA's # 14480. That's it for me, the overhang has been capped, yahoo! I'm blowing a big wad tomorrow, very early tomorrow. When this hits New York at 9:00 it should be very, very big.

Sunday, 09/26/99 21:10:36BMCT (Beowulf @ # 14491) "Gold jumps to four month high on ECB sales limit. (link provided) Central bank sales to be capped to not exceed 400 tons in any of the next five years.

Sunday, 09/26/99 23:07:41BMCT (koan @ # 14504) "On the phone with my friends. I have been on the phone with my friends telling them how I would play this. I am not the only one."

Sunday, 09/26/99 23:24:45BMCT (Black Blade @ # 14510) "Koan, FOA, Leight�all."To the MOON indeed. I hope that this carries over to the New York market. I have been rebalancing my portfolio toward the PM's since my return from SE Asia. I was hoping to do some more tomorrow. This announcement comes a couple of days early for me, but what the heck, I'll take it�."
Sunday, 09/26/99 23:46:58BMCT (Buena Fe @ # 14517 "AMEN!!!!!! Hee hee, Hooo hoo��Oh boy, Congratulations to the Knights of table round, the war is not over but the enemy is on the run! May your dreams be golden tonight. Keep Well

Sunday, 09/26/99 23:55:BMCT (SteveH @ # 14522) Holy mackeral! Gold now up over $15!!! At (Dec gold now) $286.80! Asking $287.40!!!! $300 tonight, eh?

Sunday, 09/26/99 23:57:12BMCT (Farfel @ # 14523) "The true Precious �.. Congratulations, to all men of GOLDEN insight. In a world gone mad, Patience and Conviction are the true precious, even more so than gold. Yes. Thanks. F.

Sunday, 09/26/99 23:58:03BMCT (Black Blade @ # 14524) "JP Morgan et al. JP�JP Morgan, Yez sir this is your broker calling�what's that? Oh, I see Goldman just called you? Yes, sir, I understand�..Well sir, we really do require that you cover that margin� Well sir, then I do suggest that you call your bankruptcy lawyer, but we do NEED you to cover!

Black Blade

(05/19/2001; 21:04:35 MDT - Msg ID: 54030)

RE Pheonix

Wow, I musta moved in among a hot-bed of petroleum loving Goldbugs ;-) I have been through Cody, and I will be that way occasionally as I must pass that way, and go through Yellowstone no less to see relatives in West Yellowstone and Idaho Falls. This world sure does get smaller, doesn't it? If you get a chance have a Moose Drool (Big Sky Brewery)also served at Roosevelt restuarant in Yellowstone Park. At this rate will have to have a get together with you, me, bonedaddy, and anyone else nearby, and MO VER MEG will have to drop down here as well. Cheers!

BTW, I was in Cody a few years ago on my way to see some work on a large land rig operated for Chevron. You have a bit of petroleum in that area as well.

Black Blade

(05/19/2001; 21:09:41 MDT - Msg ID: 54031)

RE: HBM

Them were fun days were they not? I remember all the excitement then, I certainly hope that we can relive those times again. BTW, I have to admit that I miss koan and his bear stories. Cheers!

uponroof

(05/19/2001; 22:01:26 MDT - Msg ID: 54032)

Poor old Solomon

those snaps in the polymer roofing cloth.......silver?

Thanks for your thoughts. Wrapped everything up in a few sentences there didn't you! You must have the gift of distillation. (thoughts not moonshine) You said:

"Viewed as a 'roof replacement' (gold mining cost), the electrical cost (silver by product) will be free."

Politicians exploit new tech advances all the time. As if devine intervention has brought the new idea and their policy together at just the right moment. Bush is no dummy.....even though it appears that way.

Serendipidy is a great selling tool. It screams out fortunate, efficient, good timing. But where serendipity and salesmanship cross is where fortunate becomes someone's fortune.

Fortunes are about to be made and lost.

O'Neill is loyal to the manufacturing sector whereas Rubin and Summers were loyal to the paper boys. As we watch the 'hush hush' unofficial weak dollar policy being launched. Greenman hacking away at rates has little to do with stock market relief. Reducing the trade deficit is the primary goal, behold....higher POG is the byproduct. The remaining sludge in this process are the phoney rallies going on in the Stock Market.

btw-the 'rumour' from Chapman, via GATA, fits this like a glove.

Back to our wives.....

My wife hates it when I touch the thermostat. We have different blood...I'm thick (hot), she's thin (cold).

O'Neill and Greenman are thinking the new economic house they're building will need a thermostat. No more guessing what the temperature is. POG is gonna be the mercury in the thermostat. Money supply the fuel for the furnace. Will 'climate control' work? I don't think so. Too many people with different blood (soon to be in the streets).

Journeyman

(05/19/2001; 22:13:03 MDT - Msg ID: 54033)

Ayn Rand, central planning, & blind hindsight @Camel, ORO

Hi camel,

You and Ayn Rand have entirely too much respect for "the mind,"
at least the _individual_ minds of central planners. ORO on the
other hand, has it exactly right: The free market, while not
perfect, is by far the best mechanism for taking care of extended
order (economic) "decisions." Here's why:

".... there will enter the effects of particular information
possessed by every one of the participants in the market process,
a sum of facts which in their totality cannot be known to the
scientific observer. It is indeed the source of the superiority
of the market order, and the reason why, when it is not
suppressed by the powers of government, it regularly displaces
other types of order, that in the resulting allocation of
resources more of the knowledge of particular facts will be
utilized which exists only dispersed among uncounted persons. -
Nobel prize winner F.A. Hayek, "The Pretense of Knowledge," New
Studies in Philosophy, Politics, Economics, and the History of
Ideas, p. 27.

As well as an over-blown obsession for Rand and the individual
central-planning mind, you also seem to suffer from blind hind-
sight - - - that is you unconsciously assume that what's known
now was known then - - - when it was only at best a probability.
As seminal Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises put it, "...to
acting man the future is hidden." -Ludwig von Mises, Human Action
A Treatise on Economics, Third Revised Edition (Chicago,
Illinois: Contemporary Books, Inc. 1966), pg. 105. Or more
clearly in the words of baseball great (and philosopher?) Yogi
Berra, "Prediction is very difficult, especially of the future."

Don't worry, both the delusions of central planning and fantasy
of precognition are curable. Just write down a few of your exact
predictions (spot gold will close at $315.30 on May 31, etc.) and
check them out. Keep exact records of both your predictions and
your results.

You will most likely do better than the politicians and
bureaucrats - - - remember they knew what you think Reagan knew
and didn't fix the situation. Neither did Bush The First nor
Clinton.

In fact, if you had been carefully reading the details of the
energy crisis, you'd be aware, as ORO so carefully expressed,
that "Government needs an energy policy today because it had an
anti-energy policy before."

Regards,
Journeyman

Old Yeller

(05/19/2001; 22:20:29 MDT - Msg ID: 54034)

Funny title....Gold Bugs in the Woodwork

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/sentiment/observations.asp?ID=3468
Personally,I prefer;"Goldbugs in the House Made of Paper"

Thanks to yogibearbull at Kitco for the link.

Black Blade

(05/19/2001; 22:31:19 MDT - Msg ID: 54035)

Cooking With Gas

Sorry no link
Snippit from a Baron's artcle:

The eager acquisitors were obviously bothered not a whit by the plunge in natural-gas prices from a peak of $10 a thousand cubic feet in December to a far more subdued $4.20 per mcf. This insouciance seemed more than passing strange to us but was no mystery to Bernie, the grizzled oil-patch veteran whose graveled voice has found expression in this space on various occasions. "At $4-$4.50, these gas companies are making more money than they deserve," he growls.

Though a tad publicity shy -- and it's the only shy thing about him -- Bernie has been doing oil-and-gas deals for decades. What he doesn't know about the business simply isn't worth knowing. Bernie shrugs off talk of a price collapse in natural gas. The recent decline is pretty much seasonal: "It's what they call the 'shoulder" here," he says, "neither winter or summer," so the price often softens. Nor is he spooked by the jump in gas in storage -- "it's still 25% below the five-year average." "And look at production," he volunteers. Though companies are drilling like mad, "production has gone nowhere." It actually declined last year. He cites a Goldman Sachs study: In the first quarter, combined U.S. natural-gas output of 36 oil-and-gas companies surveyed inched up a mere 2% over the opening three months of last year.

Black Blade: And Kalifornia as well as other states are building NG-fired power plants at a record pace, there are proposals for fuel cell technologies to be fast-tracked (hydrogen derived from NG), NG production falling behind last year's production, ever rising demand for NG, environmental constraints on exploration and development of NG producing regions, etc. What do you think will happen to the economy as NG is not sufficiently available to fuel the massive production engine that we know as the US economy when the power goes off? What do you think will happen to the price of NG and electricity? Finally, what do you think will happen to the POG? I think that we already know as we are now getting a wee taste of all these things now, and we will see prices sky-rocket from here.

Black Blade

(05/19/2001; 22:36:25 MDT - Msg ID: 54036)

Woman fights off alleged sex assailant

http://chicagotribune.com/news/metro/chicago/article/0,2669,ART-51876,FF.html
Snippit:

A South Side man who was emasculated by a woman he allegedly tried to rape has been charged with aggravated criminal sexual assault, according to police.

Black Blade: This one is for Steve H - apparently a firearm isn't always the best weapon or weapon of choice ;-)

Ouch! Hurts to just think about it. Maybe a candidate for the "Darwin Awards?"

Netking

(05/19/2001; 22:45:35 MDT - Msg ID: 54037)

Silver - Conflicting signals, some confusion & great hope!

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/morgan052101.htmlSnippits;

"...press releases have just been issued detailing results of the World Silver Survey, an annual silver market summary compiled by Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS), independent of the U.S. based Silver Institute the organization to which I refer. One release - titled "Silver Demand Forecast to Fall" - projects that prices will likely drop this year "because of ample supplies, increased mine production and the sale of silver stocks..."

*** Silver to help solve the California energy crisis?

"...According to the Silver Institute backgrounder, the super-conductivity technology requires one ton of silver per mile of super-conducting transmission line.A ton per mile! Now that's a lot of silver - a reality you have to admit even if you're bearish on silver. To illustrate, let's hypothesize a transmission line from New York to San Francisco - a line that would require about 3,000 miles of super-conducting wire. That would be 3,000 tons of silver. Stated in more familiar terms, that's approximately 96 million ounces of silver. Ninety-six MILLION! That's roughly one-quarter of last year's total industrial consumption of silver - for just one transmission line.
Since the Silver Institute is supposedly biased in favor of silver (in spite of the latest GFMS report), I didn't want to take its figures at face value. So, I called ASC for confirmation. I spoke to a corporate vice president, asking if he could verify how much silver the Company used in its technology. The answer was a very firm, "NO!" Seems it's a closely guarded trade secret..."

Solomon Weaver

(05/19/2001; 22:55:47 MDT - Msg ID: 54038)

Of Silver and Gold, of Coin and Bullion, of Paper

Sunday, 09/26/99 08:56:40BMCT (The Scot @ # 14416) "To All, Comparing Gold to Silver. When we consider the acquisition of bullion coins as a safeguard to paper currency, it is difficult for me to compare. Today with gold spot at approximately 268.00 US$ and silver at 5.23 US$ we will pay approximately $285.00 for US eagles and $7.80 for US Silver Eagles. This is about a 6% premium on Gold and 49% on Silver. How does this great difference come into play in future possible scenarios?

...

Solomon:

This little snippet from the days of the last great spike is the perfect example of how the bigger/richer investors just don't see the world in the same eyes as the "poor man".

First, let us consider that the 49% "premium" on the Silver Eagle of about $2.50 per coin is to a large extent related to the fact it costs something to produce a coin and also that the mint makes these coins for "collectors" in a fairly "small economy of scale".

What is really important here is to look at the issue of "how much money" one wants to invest...and "in what time period"...and then how much one wants to divest and again over what time period. We see this classically in the way people buy "CDs" with different dates of maturity..to invest a "nestegg" into a form that may be liquidated slowly over time.

Let us take two parties....they both have $1000.

Party 1 buys 3 Gold Eagles...has a $ 100 change and goes out to have a nice dinner with the $100. (He could have also bought a couple smaller coins).

Party 2 buys 133 Silver Eagles and has no change left over.

Fat forward some number of years....Both Gold and Silver have made the big run and have stabilized with Gold and Silver Eagles at $6000/ounce and at $150/ounce. (The dollar has also in the meantime experienced a certain hyperinflation which has reduced the purchasing power to 1/2.

So now, Party 1 has 3 units of Gold worth $3000 each in today's purchasing power, and is very proud of his %1000 gain. But he may only divest his fortune as 1/3 2/3 or 3/3...and he will need to solicit a sophisticated buyer.

Party 2 has 133 units of Silver worth $75 each in today's purchasing power, and is also proud of his %1500 gain. (Even if his net % gain were less than gold, he would still be proud...but I and other silver campers think the white metal has interesting prospects to return to a more normal ratio of 1/40.) Party 2 may now divest his fortune in 1/133, 2/133 etc......and he might even be able to find a friend or relative who was glad to get the coin from him directly....

The magic of the whole thing, is that all of us can be both parties.....a core holding of gold to park for the long haul and some nice pretty silver eagles to spend in the early days of cashing out...

The great tragedy to come is that as "investment" demand for silver and gold increase, the vast majority of newcomers will be perfectly happy with papers that say they own silver or gold.

Here is the perfect example....I have some 401K money and I tend to put about $2000-10,000 in any single stock at a time. I believe there are a lot of folks out there who with the click of a mouse are moving about $4000 around in their account....sometimes just on a hunch about a new company they read about.

It is also possible for the the same $4000 to buy a nice box of 500 one ounce Silver Eagles. Oddly enough, most people with a box of 500 eagles in the back of the closet will worry about theft.....but are happy to entrust such amounts of $ to the management of a company a friend told them about.

There is something nice about the poor man...his world is small and simple.....he is not wrapped up in the worries of the paper world....parking a little savings in a silver coin or two???

Poor old Solomon

Poor old Solomon

Black Blade

(05/19/2001; 23:07:01 MDT - Msg ID: 54039)

Many refineries in U.S. believed to violate air pollution laws

http://www.accessatlanta.com/partners/ajc/epaper/editions/saturday/news_b360e084032fe0d810d1.html
Enforcement an issue as expansion sought BUSH ENERGY PLAN

Snippit: Washington --- At least half of the country's 152 oil refineries are believed to be violating air pollution laws, federal officials say, but with the refineries stretched near capacity, the Bush administration is debating how hard to crack down.

Black Blade: It is no wonder that there has been no new refinery construction in a quarter of a century. With refineries operating at capacity and the threat of ever changing environmental regulations, it is likely that there will be no new refineries built. As older refineries are closed down and others shut down for more frequent maintenance, the bottlenecks in fuel production for nearly 60 grades of reformulated fuels will only get worse. Then of course there are the pipeline bottlenecks where very few pipelines must transfer many various fuel types great distances to market. There are difficulties in getting permits to build new pipelines along with environmental permitting problems. Look for the energy crisis to last several decades and at a great cost to the US economy. Gold in hand looks better each passing day.

Gandalf the White

(05/19/2001; 23:31:41 MDT - Msg ID: 54040)

The Hobbits are celebrating having received their 2000 Anual Report today !!

http://www.coeur.com/The Report was of their favorite Silver (and a little bit of Gold) company, Coeur d'Alene Mines Corporation of Coeur d'Alene, Idaho. Production in 2000 (fiscal year is also calendar year) was 11.7 million ounces of Silver and 145,000 ounces of Gold. BTW, the 2000 year "cash cost" of silver was $4.09 per ounce compared to $4.17 per ounce in 1999, AND they do not hedge Silver.
Mr. Dennis E. Wheeler, Chairman, President and CEO, "in part" said, "Coeur is the largest of the primary silver producers in North America in terms of production and well as in-production reserves and resources."
=======
<;-)

Black Blade

(05/19/2001; 23:48:45 MDT - Msg ID: 54041)

Today's Energy Shortages Are Far Less Ominous Than Those of the 1970s

http://199.97.97.163/IMDS%PMAKRT0%read%/home/content/users/imds/feeds/knightridder/2001/05/19/krtbn/0000-0451-WA-ENERGY-WOES

Snippit:

May 18--WASHINGTON--As President Bush unveiled his energy plan Thursday, nearly 200 new power plants were under construction across the United States and 1,000 drilling rigs were burrowing for new sources of natural gas.

Black Blade: This same line of thought caught Kalifornia by surprise as well. This article completely misses the mark, It simply does not address the shortage of NG even with 1000 drill rigs in operation. We are still short of about 1000 to 1200 drill rigs. Even so, we have fallen behind last years production. It is interesting that these so-called economists don't seem to ever look at the big picture. BTW, I don't see a lot of "rich" economists. Most teach - "Those who can do, those who can't teach." This energy crisis will surpass the temporary artificial gas shortage of 1973 and 1979, as this crisis hits all energy sectors and isn't fixed as easily as appeasing a few Arabs.

Dollar Bill

(05/19/2001; 23:50:55 MDT - Msg ID: 54042)

Fer Chris Powell

Chris Powell said:
"....understand that gold's great eternal function and moral purpose is as an independent form of money, not as jewelry, and thus gold competes with and can be the enemy of other forms of money,
particularly government-issued forms.
There is plenty of room in the world for both forms of money.
It is GATA's struggle to keep the paper form from destroying
the gold form, for gold is essential to keeping the paper
form honest and preserving individual liberty around the
world."

Hello Chris, As someone who based my life on beliefs that
eventually couldnt stand the light of day, I can certainly
muster up some courtesy where before I may have just
been annoyed by some gata thinking.
So, I call your attention to the idea that "there is plenty of room in the world for both forms of money."
The central bankers seem to think otherwise. What is the
reason for that? And how possibly could there be a transition back to gold? Dont look to ORO for help on that one by the way. And since Murphy just calls them "hannibal cannibals", that eliminates him from any serious list of
-Who wants to be a Millionaire?- phone line help lists for
monetary questions.

Is it possible that the boys on top of the fiat world
have many factors to deal with besides thier own personal greed? And could those factors be the well being of
the most people possible under enourmously complex political
constraints and human nature with all it's flawed glory.

Is it possible that gold did not have a glorious past?
Is it possible that you do not understand enough about
previous attempts at using gold as currency and the limitations of that system and how much greed and manipulation were able to find a home in that gold system?

Seems to me that unless we can identify a way out from our present track to a better way, then we are not offering
any help but are just on the side of destruction.
Plenty of folks are trying to destroy. Clearly Murphy seems to like the hero role, he claims -better to destroy now, it will be better than destroying later- but he cant say why.

Ever consider leaving him?
The forum is fine, but global action should follow
complete comprehension of a situation, and none of us here can provide you and Bill with the needed solid basis for
your actions. The most honest assessment of your efforts
would be to say you are out to destroy the world.

Black Blade

(05/20/2001; 00:14:23 MDT - Msg ID: 54043)

Godsell new WGC chief

http://196.2.157.10/News24/Finance/Companies/0,4186,2-8-24_1026689,00.html
Snippit:

London - Bobby Godsell, chairman and chief executive of world number one gold mining company AngloGold was on Friday appointed chairman of the World Gold Council (WGC).

Black Blade: Now we can answer why the WGC has commissioned several reports favorable to the practice of forward sales and detrimental to investment in the metal. Hedge fund AngloGold's top hedger is now at the helm of the WGC. Don't expect to see any WGC reports critical of gold forward sales or reports favorable toward gold investment.
View Yesterday's Discussion.

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/20/2001; 00:18:22 MDT - Msg ID: 54044)

Dollar Bill # 54042

Sir

The answer is no, it is not possible!

Very respectfully,

HBM

Chris Powell

(05/20/2001; 00:22:11 MDT - Msg ID: 54045)

Is GATA out to destroy the world?

Dollar Bill, does anyone really think that
GATA has such power? At most GATA is calling
attention to certain activities that are
undertaken surreptitiously because the people
engaged in them know that there is something
wrong with them. And what if the better part
of the financial world is built on a lie and
a great wrong, the expropriation of those
whose livelihoods depend on gold? Must they
remain slaves to that lie and that wrong
forever? People made similar suggestions in
defense of American slavery. GATA operates
from the premise that, in a democracy,
government's economic policy must be PUBLIC
policy -- that is, conducted in public and
understood widely. If the consequences of
that would be too destructive, what exactly
about our government and economic system
would be worth saving?
We could all just move to China.

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/20/2001; 00:27:40 MDT - Msg ID: 54046)

Solomon Weaver # 54038

Folks, read this one closely. This man is a teacher. He covered a lot in a few words. Significant, the saving of the difference by purchasing silver with the "small change" left over from the gold purchase.

I bet "Poor Old Solomon" aint so poor.

HBM

Black Blade

(05/20/2001; 00:29:57 MDT - Msg ID: 54047)

The Gold Game: Hedging Inventory Risk

http://www.thestreet.com/comment/openbook/1433611.html
Snippit:

Every gold company has its own way of dealing with the inventory risk. Some hedge the risk, and some don't. Some lever it up. This turns out to be the most important difference between one gold company and another, especially if you're looking for gold stocks that will outperform in an environment with a rising gold price.

Black Blade: Lame article that doesn't explain the downside to forward sales and lightly covers the potential upside for unhedged/leveraged companies in a rising POG environment. However, it seems to suggest that unhedged and strongly leveraged companies are probably better bets. Too bad Barrick and Anglo. Forward sales will prove out to be a fools game in the end - just ask Ashanti, Cambior, Emperor, and Centaur.

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/20/2001; 00:32:22 MDT - Msg ID: 54048)

USAGOLD forum excerpts: All times BMCT (Branson, Mo. Central Time)

Day 2 - Monday, September 27, 1999Monday, 09/27/1999 02:51:34BMCT (The Invisible Hand @ # 14547) "America, wake up! Our day has come. Spot is at 284.30 up 13.90"

Monday, 09/27/1999 09:12:34BMCT (TownCrier @ # 14568) "Gold jumps as Europe caps sales, eyes $300"

Monday, 09/27/1999 09:32:38BMCT (beesting @ # 14573) "AXU now up to 81.78 ----14.44%

Monday, 09/27/1999 10:13:14BMCT (USAGOLD @ # 14578) "Today's Gold Report: LIFTOFF! Gold lifted off last night�American overnight market, with a rapid escalation �at one point had it up $18."

Monday, 09/27/1999 12:02:58 (ORO @ # 14587) "I came back to find gold making the kind of noticeable move that it has not made in quite a while."

Monday, 09/27/1999 16:07:02BMCT (USAGOLD @ # 14618) "Question of the Day. Now with all the euphoria and excitement settling a little, the question comes to mind. Why did they do it? Why do the Europeans want the price of Gold to rise? Why didn't the U.S. and Britain stand in their way? They could have thrown the towel without the fanfare. They could have just quietly withdrawn without the announcement. Why didn't they?

Monday, 09/27/1999 16:51:21BMCT (Aristotle @ # 14622) "A great day, but let's not forget last week which brought us up about $14 also.

Monday, 09/27/1999 18:32:39BMCT (Golden Truth @ # 14629) "SOLD MY SILVER FOR GOLD!!!!!!! No IRON INVESTMENTS for ME. Sold all my Silver Maple Leafs today and bought two 1oz Gold Maple Leafs. I LOST 28% between what I paid for them and what I sold them at. I will never!! Buy silver again as an investment, I've checked around on the WEB and the lowest amount of money I could of lost was 10%. To get only a 10% loss I would have to of, sold them to a U.S. dealer and I didn't want to spend my whole day running to the post office. My point is this. When it comes time to sell a GOLD coin you only lose 1.7% the best I've found, right up to 4.2% the worst I've found�"

Monday, 09/27/1999 20:00:17BMCT (oldgold @ # 14634) "Farfel, at least I am making big bucks in gold now and did not lose too much in the bear�"

Monday, 09/27/1999 22:59:53BMCT (Black Blade @ # 14651) "More fun tonight�I'm pleased with the PM market, and it's not over yet�look at Kitco graph tonight�Au is up another 3.10. Silver is doing OK as well. Goldspoon�what horse is Platinum? Perhaps his name is Star-shine? Did he at least place or show?

Monday, 09/27/1999 23:52:04BMCT (Goldfly @ # 14657) "Get along little doggie! Spot $287.50!!! Spiking!"

Monday, 09/27/1999 24:08:08BMCT (Goldfly @ # 14660) "Zipp-da-do-Downer. $284.50!!! what happened here?

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/20/2001; 00:41:08 MDT - Msg ID: 54049)

Day 2 excertp (Golden Truth @ # 14629) Monday, 09/27/1999 (below)

I believe that if GT were to ever change his mind and buy silver again, which I do not expect, he would not make the same move again after reading (Solomon Weaver # 54038)

No slam on GT. I have made many decisions much worse than the one he made (my opinion) on Monday, Sept. 27, 1999.

Very respectfully,

HBM

Black Blade

(05/20/2001; 00:42:52 MDT - Msg ID: 54050)

Gold soars in classic investment 'squeeze'

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/gam/ROB/20010519/RGOLD.html
Snippits:

The price of gold soared $13.80 (U.S.) an ounce in a surge of afternoon trading yesterday to close the day at $287.80. The upward swing came abruptly after lacklustre trading throughout the morning, traders said. One analyst said there was a classic investment "squeeze" going on in the market, forcing gold higher and causing the shares of gold mining companies to take off.

"It's a shock," said John Ing, the president of Toronto investment dealer Maison Placements Inc. "There's definitely a squeeze going on." Mr. Ing said selling from one bank dried up yesterday and gold shot ahead.

Mr. Ing also said that lower interest rates are reducing the profitability of gold hedging. Some traders borrow gold and raise cash by selling it in order to reinvest the proceeds in interest-bearing securities.

"The funds are tripping over themselves to buy gold," Donald Eckert, head of precious metals trading at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. in New York, told Bloomberg News.

Black Blade: MK covered much of this yesterday and some in the Daily post. I have nothing to say except just read the writing on this "Wall of Worry." 1) short squeeze, 2) one (bullion?) bank no longer selling/leasing gold, 3) Gold carry trade no longer profitable, and 4) funds searching high and low for gold. Get the "Big Picture?"

Simply Me

(05/20/2001; 01:11:01 MDT - Msg ID: 54051)

Mr Gresham, Peter Asher et al.

(In my best Elvis imitation) Thank You. Thank you very much.

Mr. Gresham: I'm glad I'm not the only one infected with that tune. I like Charlie Daniels for the same reason I like Mozart...their tunes are so natural that they just stick with you forever! I'll bet you heard the fiddle solo over the mower for the entire job.

Peter Asher: I thank you, and my English Lit. professors thank you, for your kind acknowledgement.

All: Thanks to all for your sharing your thoughts. I learn from you...all of you...daily.

Report from the edges of the village surrounding the castle. Long slumbering interest in gold is beginning to stir already among the lowly peasants and State Quarter collectors. It's as though they were sleeping with one eye open, ready to pounce the moment gold moved a noticeable muscle.

simply

FredBear

(05/20/2001; 03:02:52 MDT - Msg ID: 54052)

(No Subject)

Do As We Say, Not As We DoIn a press conference held in Washington on Thursday, DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe stepped out from behind the wheel of his $50,000.00 Cadillac Escalade, which averages 12 mpg, braying that the Administration energy plan relies too heavily on increasing domestic energy supplies and does not encourage enough conservation.

House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt bleated the same tired line at the same press conference, then quickly bolted the rostrum, leaving the scene in a Chevrolet Tahoe (15 mpg.)

Netking

(05/20/2001; 03:39:40 MDT - Msg ID: 54053)

@Solomon Weaver & Hill Billy Mitchell

(54036 & 54046)
You post under the scenario:"Fast forward some number of years....Both Gold and Silver have made the big run and have stabilized with Gold and Silver Eagles at $6000/ounce and at $150/ounce.(The dollar has also in the meantime experienced a certain hyperinflation which has reduced the purchasing power to 1/2."
-----------------------------------------------------------
Your Gold/Silver ratio example is at 40:1, a HIGHLY unlikely (and incorrect IMHO) scenario Sir's given the amount of above ground silver v's the above ground of gold, the demand/supply dynamics & also the time frame to get more inventory mined.

During 1980's peaks in silver & gold when silver hit $52.20 the G/S ratio was NOTHING like 40:1, more from memory about 16'ish(?)The other thing was that the silver inventories were very healthy back in 1980, unlike today, so sorry chaps no 40:1's a real outside chance, Ergo.
regards Netking

Cavan Man

(05/20/2001; 06:31:01 MDT - Msg ID: 54054)

Could Markets Fail?

I remember our esteemed friend saying the market (for gold) could fail going straight up or straight down. Perhaps a "controlled burn" strategy will be even less successful this time 'round because of the alleged scarcity of metal.

Camel

(05/20/2001; 07:03:45 MDT - Msg ID: 54055)

End game for domestic oil

This is from a recent mailing from the Jay Hanson Brain Food Site from a group called Scientists For a Sustainable Energy Future. Is it true? I don't have any way to know but they don't seem very optimistic about increased drilling for oil.

Snippit:

Conventional forms of energy have grabbed the policy spotlight in recent months, but this emphasis is misplaced, and,ultimately, counterproductive. We produce slightly less than half of the oil we consume; by 2020 we will produce just 35 percent.Can a policy to encourage domestic oil extraction reduce dependence on imported oil and maintain the price of gasoline and home heating oil at reasonable levels? The simple answer is no, because the domestic oil resource base is depleted to the extent that large investments in drilling cannot generate a commensurate increase in oil supply. Extraction and proven reserves of oil have dropped considerably since their peaks in 1970 despite a massive drilling campaign in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Because domestic oil sources are more costly than overseas alternatives, incentives to encourage exploration and development will hurt the economy in the same way they did 20 years ago when the oil price shocks produced record rates of drilling. A large diversion of capital investment and profits to the oil industry ensued, but oil extraction continued to decline, as it has to this day. There is every reason to believe that the same scenario will play out if political decisions are made to promote domestic extraction.

Boxman

(05/20/2001; 07:10:26 MDT - Msg ID: 54056)

Map that gives energy status by state.

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/us/DailyNews/Power_Interactive_FeatureBlank_010418.htmlGlad that I live in Kentucky. Even though coal prices have been increasing lately, we should be spared availability problems for the time being.

Rockgrabber

(05/20/2001; 09:37:52 MDT - Msg ID: 54057)

Russia looking towards EURO

They have done it, they have the ol USofA by the balls. They loaded the debt trap, and we took the bait. I am going to get me some Paper Euro contracts before they change the price. We should check into using the Euro ourselfes. ehehheeh

auspec

(05/20/2001; 10:25:51 MDT - Msg ID: 54058)

David Guyatt's Response to "Black Gold - Buy The Numbers?"

JourneymanThe following is a response from Gavid Guyatt in regards to my recent post "Black Gold-Buy The Numbers?":

Subj: Re: Black Gold Post

"Thanks {auspec}. It was an interesting post you sent me."

"Historical gold is an area that deserves a great deal more objective and independent scholarship. Perhaps scholarship is the wrong word. Maybe it is the interpretation of known facts that needs to be scrutinised more objectively."

"For example, the WGC credits Ancient Egypt with producing one metric tonne of AU per annum from 2000 BC through to Roman times. That's 2000 metric tonnes accounted for right there. Or is it? The WGC admit this is an "estimate." Well, their estimate clearly needs updating."

"The Ancient Egyptians are known to have been mining gold from 3000 BC and "extensively" from 2,500 BC from mines they controlled in Nubia (nowadays the Sudan) and the Eastern Deserts. In other words the WGC are adrift an entire millennium in their calculations. Ooopps! Just another of those square-world screw-ups."

"But that is not all. The ancient Egyptians did not regard gold as all that rare. For them, Silver was more rare -- and we know how abundant that is nowadays. Even though it was never used in coins, the Egyptians used gold a lot in jewellry, temple furnishings and burials -- and not just for the wealthy and influential either. Relatively unimportant people were buried with gold ornaments and funerary objects."

"Now ask yourself how likely it was for one of the smartest and greatest civilisations in history to have devoted so much manpower to the year round mining of two distinct mining locations (Eastern Deserts and Nubia) that (we are told) only yielded approximately half a tonne of gold every year."

"The fact is that the one tonne per year figure is nothing but a random guess. There are no records to tell us how much gold was mined by the ancient Egyptians. I asked one academic who specialised in these matters to guess how much gold was mined by them. He wouldn't commit himself to a figure but merely said gold was in "extensive" use between 2,500 BC through to Roman times. One cannot weigh concepts like "extensive," of course."

"So, where did the one tonne per year figure come from? Maybe someone should ask the WGC how they arrived at this estimate. Was it a case of three guys sitting around a smoke-filled room with one saying "we need an annual production figure for the ancient ragheads?" Another replies "tell 'em it's a tonne a year." The third adds "if anyone asks, say it's an 'estimate'" They all laugh, order another round of XO Cognac, three more large Havana's and move on to other matters."

"The fact is that the pre-American Gold Rush historical mining figures adopted by the authorities are just so much bunkum."

Regards

David END

Journeyman- Your points in post #53887 are well taken. Of course gold was extraordinarily revered prior to the last 2000 years and the Roman time of standardization you mentioned, maybe not as 'money' but certainly as VALUE, as most all ancient civilizations attest. The populations were smaller, but many were enslaved to produce the "necessities" of their rulers, gold in particular. Thank you for your thought and comments.
auspec

Black Blade

(05/20/2001; 10:30:58 MDT - Msg ID: 54059)

RE: Camel and Boxman

Camel

Unfortunately the US is doomed to be a net importer of oil and that will never change no matter how much drilling and development occurs. We now import about 56% of our oil needs. We are at the mercy of OPEC and other oil producers. If they should turn off the spigot as it were, then we would have about a 30 day supply. Given the current state of affairs in the Middle East between Israel and their Arab neighbors, the oil producing Arab countries could very easily press their point by cutting off supply as they did in 1973 during the "Arab Oil Embargo." This time it would be more critical due to our increased dependence on foreign oil. If the technology were feasible enough to draw from tar sands such as the Athabasca tar sands in Alberta, then we could have some breathing room. Unfortunately it is a costly proposition as not all the tar sands are so easy to process. There are a few producers that could provide some relief such as Suncor (SU). At much higher prices, it could be possible to attempt the mining of nearly 600 billion bbl of tar sand oil. There are also other non-conventional sources that could help as well, however, these sources are smaller deposits and are also very costly. The communist/socialist activists of the 1960's and 1970's have found a home in the environmental movement in order to continue their crusade. The argument of clean air and water vs. corporate greed of the "Robber Barons" debate has attracted many otherwise reasonable people. After all, who is against clean air and water? These people have gained a lot of political power through their proxies in Washington. So development of domestic oil supply (US and Canada) is not very likely. Development of oil reserves such as in ANWR give us some breathing room, but other sources must be developed. We must be resigned to the fact that eventually we will need to rely on nuclear and coal for the greater part of our energy needs. Right now oil and gas is critical to the US for our security needs and the US economy. There is the outside possibility that someday we may be able to mine methane hydrates from the ocean floor, but that is a difficult proposition at best. As it is, we have no choice but to pursue oil and gas exploration and development for the next several decades until technology is able to provide the means to extract hydrocarbons from other non-conventional sources, develop clean coal technology, and convince thepublic of the need for nuclear power development. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Boxman - I like the map you provided the link for. I clicked on washington state for example. All the planned power plants to be constructed over the next four years will have all it's energy consumed by server farms.

R Powell

(05/20/2001; 10:42:00 MDT - Msg ID: 54060)

Poor man's gold

Soloman Weaver / Netking Soloman Weaver (54038). Agree entirely with your thoughts but I also agree with Netking that the 40 to 1 ratio will be much smaller. I've read that the massive silver stores of above ground silver have just about been depleted. Ted Bulter and David Morgan have been shouting about this for some time now. Also there are industrial uses for silver that are not subject to substitution, that is, silver is necessary (even at higher prices).
If, as most of agree, gold still has (never lost) it's store of value as money, then I sense that silver is also money and as such will rise with gold. The fundamentals of supply and demand are actually begging for a greater advance in the POS than POG, although both should rise greatly.
I recently bought 100 silver eagles from CPM (at a very good price! thanks) and a December 2002, strike price 525, silver call option. Both cost about the same and I'd double up on both orders if I had any fiat left. The potential is there, if prices rise, for this old concrete worker to become debt free and semi-retired from construction work.
Whatever the outcome, I'm enjoying this tremendously. Who was it that said that forum participation should/must produce either wealth, knowledge or fun??
As usual, these are the ramblings of one poor old goldbug and should be viewed as such (not investment advice which the government says we can not dispense without the proper papers and license). Note- Jake Bernstein has fought them on this as a 1st amendment issue. I don't believe he won the case.
Rich

megatron

(05/20/2001; 11:08:12 MDT - Msg ID: 54061)

RPowell

You may be retiring sooner than you (or I) think. I called 2 of the largest dealers in the NorthWest and was informed there are NO 10 ounce silver bars from Johnson and Matthey
available and could give no answer as to when any could be gotten. When I pressed the one of salesman for more info he and the owner had a quite little side conversation and then he would say no more. Weird, huh? What kind of business DOESN'T want to sell you stuff? Supply must be getting restricted somewhere. Handy and Harman round 2?

Sierra Madre

(05/20/2001; 11:13:58 MDT - Msg ID: 54062)

Citibank in Mexico.....

Thursday it was announced that Citibank has bought out Mexico's oldest and perhaps largest bank for $12.5 billion, 50% cash and 50% stock.

This is an important event for both countries. It means that the Establishment in the U.S. now considers Mexico as a vital asset to the US.

Citibank's move will probably be regarded as a green light for investment by the Establishment (US).

It is possible that Mexico will see an avalanche of investment.

All this interest is motivated, in my opinion by an intense hunger for what Mexico has that the US needs: oil and gas.

Most of Mexico's 100 million inhabitants are debt free, or nearly so.

Dollarization of Mexico is also something I feel that the Establishment is craving: once dollarized, the prospect of issuing credit cards to 100 million Mexicans has the banks drooling.

Not to mention mortgaging the entire country.

Is this also a convenient alternative to a reduced appetite for Dollars in Europe?

Henri

(05/20/2001; 11:32:09 MDT - Msg ID: 54063)

Auspec Msg 53983 JMB Msg 54024

Thank you for that link Auspec! Very Interesting! Could it be that the obviously higher supply of US Treasury paper is the "Mountain of US dollars" that FOA said would be greeting the US powers that be? If so, it seems to already have started. When the declining price (increasing interest rate)of the long bond crosses the Mortgage rate line I think it will be a well noticed phenomenon that our exported inflation is coming home to roost.

Fannie and Freddie to the rescue again? Hah! They are caught in the copy room with their pants down. JMB your bank holiday scenario is so far fetched. I'm a believer. Borrow long and lend short kind of falls apart when borrowing long cost's more than anyone's willing to pay on the short term.

Henri

(05/20/2001; 11:34:29 MDT - Msg ID: 54064)

JMB and all Correction

I meant to say your "bank holiday" scenario is NOT all that far fetched.

Chris Powell

(05/20/2001; 11:52:14 MDT - Msg ID: 54065)

The Greenspan and bullion dealer panic over gold

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/784Latest "Midas" commentary from Bill
Murphy.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Netking

(05/20/2001; 12:18:55 MDT - Msg ID: 54066)

"Gold at 5 Year (AUD) high"

http://www.theage.com.au/business/2001/05/21/FFXUH7YOXMC.htmlA scan around our global village reveals gold making headlines nearly everywhere with this link typical and with expectation building. I don't believe this is "IT" yet, but more of pre-shock. The will be a retracement, but I think we'll keep half our gains, before the next...

(Reading the wording of this you can't help but think about a another PM where the naked shorts equate to over 2 years annual production, spread amongst mainly 4 shorts. There must be a few drops of sweat forming chaps!)

Beowulf

(05/20/2001; 12:26:05 MDT - Msg ID: 54067)

South African gold index tipped to rip on Monday

http://m1.mny.co.za/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256A52005A8E74?OpenDocument(Snip)

As a result, Comex was net long � more investors believed gold would increase than fall � for the first time since July.

Other South African analysts were unconvinced. "Lease rates haven't really moved in all this time," said one who declined to be named. "No-one really expected this move but I think the gold price will find it hard to break $290 per ounce," said James Wellsted of JP Morgan.
(Unsnip)

Beowulf - Hmm...Where have I heard that $290 number before?

JMB

(05/20/2001; 12:36:03 MDT - Msg ID: 54068)

CHRIS POWELL

MIDAS COMMENTARY For May 20, 2001"It is not just the 'black box' types who want in. One of the legendary traders/investors was said to be a big buyer on Friday."

Chris, be a sport, how about a little hint? This legendary trader/investor....does his last name start with an "S"? TIA

beesting

(05/20/2001; 12:54:25 MDT - Msg ID: 54069)

A Reason the World is using Paper Instead of Gold for Money.

Here is a snippet from a GATA release @ 12:39 ET, Thanks'so much, Chris Powell:
Translated from the South German News May 18,2001:

[Snip]
<lost its most important function as far back as the early
1970s with the severance of the last link between gold
and major currencies.>>[End Snip]

Comment:
Lets re-examine the cause for the U.S. defaulting on Gold obligations on Aug. 15,1971...By this time the industralized world was (and still is)almost totally dependant on oil products,for continuation of everyday life. The world was and is paying for the oil with dollars. The largest holders of oil reserves in the world were, and still are, the Mid-easterners, who prefer Gold as payment for oil.

Now, consider this, if it was a straight trade,Gold for oil,how long would it have taken before big oil held most of the worlds above ground and below ground Gold supplys, and at the same time, because this would cause a short squeeze in Gold(supply & demand)the Gold price would be way beyond the reach of most? More dollars would be printed, lowering the value of the dollar on all products and causing inflation.(Higher prices at the gas pumps)

This in turn would eventually cause an explosion in alternate energy sources. A smart mathematician could figure out when the price of Gold backed dollars reached a certain high level making it no longer economical to power the world on oil.

Since the world is 2/3 water and 1/3 of that water is hydrogen and hydrogen is a proven energy source how long would it take for technology to replace oil as the cheapest form of abundent energy? And, if the world was on a Gold monetary system the Golden wealth of the world would be more evenly distrubuted, worldwide?

So, to sum up we can conclude, some type of agreement was reached after 1971 where cheap oil priced in fiat, constantly depreciating dollars, would be used to buy oil. And Gold would remain cheap in its relation to dollars. But the catch is all fiat money loses value over time, therefore as the life of the U.S. dollar as the worlds trading currency ends, a replacement fiat money was and is required(The Euro)FOR OIL PRICE SETTLEMENTS!!!!!

Is this the real reason the world is no longer on a Gold standard????
Thanks for Reading....beesting.

Black Blade

(05/20/2001; 13:12:49 MDT - Msg ID: 54070)

Energy Secretary Does Not Expect Oil Embargo

http://www.latimes.com/wires/20010520/tCB00a5551.html
Snippit:

WASHINGTON--U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham said on Sunday he did not believe there would be another oil embargo because of the current tensions in the Middle East.

Black Blade: As if anyone expected the last oil embargo.

WW Oracle

(05/20/2001; 13:15:47 MDT - Msg ID: 54071)

Dollar attack?

Sixty million in T-bills matured on Thursday. Why reinvest the principal in low-yielding paper rather than fast-appreciating gold? And another sixty million matures this Thursday...

Anyone monitoring the eurodollar and the TED spread? Does it indicate an attack on the dollar? That is, are banks borrowing eurodollars to buy up gold?

Black Blade

(05/20/2001; 13:28:56 MDT - Msg ID: 54072)

Bush Needs An Energy Tinkerbell

http://199.97.97.163/IMDS%PMANAT0%read%/home/content/users/imds/feeds/bellsuper/2001/05/20/SFC/0000-2958-KEYWORD.Missing
Snippit:

Californians are demanding that George W. Bush do something about California's energy woes. State Sen. Tom McClintock, R-Northridge, gave me the idea when he noted on KSFO radio last week that there is no such thing as an electricity fairy. Maybe. But since it would take a fairy to give Golden Staters the energy they expect at the cheap prices they demand in the face of supply shortfalls, why not promise a fairy?

Staging is key. First, the electricity fairy should look ethereal, maybe like Kate Hudson, but not too ethereal like Gray Davis. The cheap-gas genie should go for the Benicio del Toro look. (His smoldering good looks could start a lot of motors running.)

Black Blade: Intertaining article that makes fun of Kalifornian Grasshoppers.

Phoenix

(05/20/2001; 13:29:53 MDT - Msg ID: 54073)

Black Blade

Good to know you'll be coming through from time to time. We've got plenty of Moose Drool, Fat Tire, and Sunshine Wheat to wet a parched throat any day. I know it would make my day to meet a fellow earth scientist.

You can ping me at mmcdougall@phoenixproduction.com

Geez, I remember hearing about the Chevron rig, but I can't place it right now. The world's giant rigs are all converging on Madden these days.

Phoenix

WW Oracle

(05/20/2001; 13:45:54 MDT - Msg ID: 54074)

Sorry, corrected Treasury numbers

http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/servlet/OFAuctionsSorry, that's thirty BILLION, not sixty MILLION!

Plus, ten or twenty-billion in notes and bonds due....see above link.

Black Blade

(05/20/2001; 13:46:17 MDT - Msg ID: 54075)

Davis taps ex-Gore aides for Calif. energy message

http://finance.individual.com/display_news.asp?doc_id=RTE18a2439reuff&page=news
Snippit:

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (Reuters) - California Gov. Gray Davis has hired two former senior aides to ex-Vice President Al Gore to help manage communications strategy during the state's escalating energy crisis.

Black Blade: Wasn't it Al Gore who said that gas should be priced at $5.00/gallon or more in his book "Earth in the Balance?" Hmmm� Now that the Dems have their wish being fulfilled they seem to be backing off - curious isn't it?

Black Blade

(05/20/2001; 13:52:45 MDT - Msg ID: 54076)

Phoenix

Your email address has been added to my address book. Maybe in the next couple of months we be swilling brews. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Carl H

(05/20/2001; 14:40:23 MDT - Msg ID: 54077)

"TRADE BUYING"

Can anyone tell me what the term "TRADE BUYING" means in reference to Comex gold?

Mr Gresham

(05/20/2001; 15:19:15 MDT - Msg ID: 54078)

Carl & others

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/784Sure was a lot in Bill Murphy's message... I've wanted those inside views from Comex traders, bullion bankers or others. It's still hard for me to think they did not know just what or who was leaning on gold price for 20 years, or at least the last 5 years. Wouldn't being tuned in to the grapevine be just a normal part of being in that business.

Is it too late to get more on Monday? Any coin dealer reports?

Black Blade

(05/20/2001; 15:50:23 MDT - Msg ID: 54079)

EU urges Russia to swap dollar for euro

http://www.atimes.com/c-asia/CD19Ag01.html
Snippit:

Russia could emerge as a crucial factor in the success of the fledgling European single currency, the euro, at the expense of the US dollar after leaders at this week's Russia-European Union summit agreed to study ways to boost the currency's use in trade and increase its share in Russia's official reserves.

EU leaders on Thursday made an audacious bid to lure Russia away from its reliance on the greenback, calling on Moscow to start accepting euros instead of dollars for its exports, dangling the attractive carrot of a boom in investment and trade.

Russia currently receives US dollars for its European oil and gas exports, but the EU wants to switch to euros instead. A joint communique has been signed by both sides agreeing to discuss the issue in further detail.

Black Blade: Interesting.

R Powell

(05/20/2001; 15:58:39 MDT - Msg ID: 54080)

Carl

Trade buyers/sellers The trade buyers or sellers are those involved with the production or use of a commodity. In cotton, the trade people are the farmers, merchants and textile mills that turn cotton into fabric. Those that store or transport corn, wheat or whatever are fringe trade people. Opposed to these are those who buy or sell commodities for speculation (profit). These are players like fund managers or private speculators who neither produce nor use the commodity in question and have no product to deliver (when sold) and no intentions of taking delivery of anything bought.
This speculative money gives liquidity to the markets so buying and selling can happen year round, whenever someone wants to buy or sell. Jake Bernstein's "How the Futures Markets Work" is an easy introductory paperback than explains all this and more with some early market development history. Good book, easy to read!
Usually, well over 98% of all futures contracts are offset for money. This is why I've never bought the idea that Comex or any other exchange was on the edge of default. If enough buyers resist offsetting their positions, there may be a short squeeze in which much higher prices are necessary to persuade holders to sell but actual default is very rare. We may see the grandaddy of all short squeezes before this year has ended. I, for one, certainly hope so!
Rich

R Powell

(05/20/2001; 16:17:29 MDT - Msg ID: 54081)

Silver shortage?

Megatron You're not the first to report that silver is getting hard to buy from dealers. Many have reported the same at the G-E Castle. They were also taking last week(?) about Chinese silver coins called Pandas. The rumor was that the Chinese government had stopped all exports of these. There was also speculation that the supply of silver from China, that has supposedly filled the production shortfall recently, is just so much hot air. It's next to impossible to get reliable import or export numbers from China. Our government (Dept. of Agriculture) simply takes whatever figures the Chinese care to offer concerning corn, cotton, soybeans etc for determining world supply, demand and year-end carryover numbers. Nonverifiable quesstimates!? Cotton traders have been fooled by the Chinese for years as the U.S. and China are the two largest producers, by far, in the world but the price of cotton is determined on the world wide market. Don't believe numbers from China! Maybe totally unintentional errors and maybe not But the numbers are always suspect.
Go Gata and silver
Rich

(05/20/2001; 16:45:45 MDT - Msg ID: 54082)

STOPING OUT OF A HEDGE

STOPING OUT OF A HEDGE

Stoping or removing ore from a mine by means of steps from inclined or vertical veins can also be taken to broadly mean processing ore in general.

Large gold producers can literally stope their way out of a hedge or forward sale.
With their reserves and other resources, such as closed shafts and suspended
production sites, including milling equipment, when the price of gold climbs high
enough they can readily expand production. Small companies are foolish to hedge and make forward sales because they can indeed be put out of business by a sudden
upsurge in price which strains their capacity to deliver. This does not apply to
large companies, particularly the very large ones, who are constantly closing
down production facilities all of which they do not sell - but which are available to them should the price of gold rise substantially.

AX

SHIFTY

(05/20/2001; 17:21:43 MDT - Msg ID: 54083)

Durban Deep

Does anyone know the symbol for this fine Gold Mining Co. ?
I just may have to buy some !

$hifty

Shermag

(05/20/2001; 17:28:32 MDT - Msg ID: 54084)

Shifty, Durban Deep

Symbol is DROOY

Black Blade

(05/20/2001; 17:46:36 MDT - Msg ID: 54085)

For Your Consideration - Energy Crisis to Lead to a North American Common Currency?

Natural gas is the fastest growing source for energy in the US. The countries of North America (Mexico, Canada, and the US) must move toward economic integration. So far the first steps have been taken with the North American Free Trade Agreement. The next step may be the dollarization of Mexico and Canada. The George Bush Administration has been progressively making overtures toward Mexico and Canada since coming to power. Now with the energy crisis getting out of control, there will be a push for greater cross border natural gas pipeline capacity. The need is so great that it could impact the trade balance equation between the three countries. Therefore, expect a push for a common currency such as the US dollar.

Pipeline capacity between the US and Mexico has increased by 70% since 1998, from 1,150 cubic feet per day to 1,970 cubic feet per day. Several new pipelines have been proposed. It now may not surprise some why El Presidente Vicente Fox of Mexico was the first foreign leader to be invited to the Bush White house. Compare this to Canada which supplied 95% of US natural gas imports. Even so, domestic Mexican consumption of natural gas is increasing about 9% a year. It is unlikely that Mexico could continue to increase production significantly to meet growing US natural gas demand.

A growing source of natural gas imports is in the form of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). There are currently only four receiving terminals for LNG in the US. Two of those (Cove Point, Maryland, and Elba Island, Georgia) have been closed for many years. These receiving terminals are expected to be refurbished and open for business by 2003. The major source of LNG was from Algeria, however, now the major suppliers are Trinidad, and Tobago, with minor suppliers in Qatar, Australia, Nigeria, Oman, and U.A.E. However, it is a costly endeavor and yet supplies only about 3% of US consumption.

Natural gas demand in the US for new power plant fuel has grown dramatically. Natural gas prices nearly quadrupled as demand grew and drilling decline during the last few years when prices were low. Consumers had better become used to higher prices for natural gas, electricity, and the resulting inflation for goods as the increased production costs are passed along. In California, the problem got out of control due to absurd demands by a liberal populace and a government of rank amateurs. Not only did they botch deregulation, they neglected to build sufficient pipeline capacity both at the border and within the state. This severe constriction limited the availability of supply to meet rapidly growing demand. It should also be noted that there is a very onerous tariff for out of state natural gas. Under these conditions it is very difficult to feel anything but pity for those caught in the Californian energy debacle.

California's electricity transmission grid is also in sorry shape. They have recently been plagued with rolling blackouts, and electric utilities have encouraged consumers to limited usage in order to save the decaying grid. The two major utilities are in serious trouble with the bankruptcy of PG&E and near bankruptcy of SoCal Edison. Higher electricity prices have taken a toll on industry both inside and outside of California. There have been cutbacks and closures of aluminum smelting plants in the Pacific Northwest, and ammonia, urea, and methanol industries are also cutting back. Many companies have found it more profitable to shut down and sell their long-term energy contracts. For example, Terra Nitrogen shut down its Arkansas fertilizer plant and cut back at its Oklahoma plant, and Mississippi Chemical halted fertilizer production. Now some may understand why I have a few months supply of canned goods. Both of these companies have sold their energy contracts in the spot market at a significant profit.

The high price of natural gas has led to a boom in exploration activity. The US rig count grew from 371 rigs in April 1999 to 840 rigs as of November 2000. We now have nearly 1000 rigs in operation and still we produce 2.7% less natural gas than last year. Rig counts have also risen in Canada as well. The critical problem right now is that there are no more drill rigs. When prices collapsed over the last few years, most rig manufacturers went out of business.

Natural gas costs have risen in Canada as well. Producers of specialty chemicals and fertilizers made from natural gas have shutdown in Western Canada. Methanex Corporation, the world's largest producer of methanol mothballed its original plant in British Columbia in July 2000, and Sherritt International Corporation suspended fertilizer production at its Fort Saskatchewan facility in October 2000. Yes, more food related producers out of business.

What about Mexico? They have cheap labor and natural gas - right? Unfortunately natural gas prices in Mexico are set by Pemex based on US benchmarks. Mexico's second largest steel manufacturer Hysla, announced partial suspension of operations at three iron mining and processing facilities due to the high cost of natural gas. The situation is becoming critical in the Monterrey region where layoffs, production cutbacks, and closings plague the mining, steel, and glass industries. I guess it comes down to the North American continent faces some serious energy problems and there is no solution, especially as politicians argue over the costs to consumers in lame bids to convert votes in upcoming elections.

George Bush expressed concern about the future of Mexico's gas market and called for a "hemispheric energy policy" where Canada, Mexico, and the US come together. One thing that Bush and El Presidente Fox discussed was expediting natural gas exploration in Mexico for transport to the US. In September a delegation from the Texas railroad Commission met with Mexico's Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) to discuss expansion of cross border capacity between South Texas and North Mexico.

The merging of the NAFTA countries of Canada, US, and Mexico will likely result in the economies merging into a single entity where a common currency (the US dollar) is used. However, the energy crisis has spread beyond the US borders and all share a common dilemma. A wave of dollarization has already begun further south with the dollarization of Panama, Ecuador, Argentina, and soon El Salvador. Unfortunately for those who support the common currency will also have to acknowledge that they give up setting monetary policy to the Federal Reserve. The energy crisis will take a toll on the economies of North America. Look for gold to shine brightly for those who have accumulated the precious metal over the last few years while it was cheap. The insurance factor of gold will come to light as the economy suffers under the strain of onerous energy costs. Dare I say it? We will "live in interesting times."

- Black Blade

Sources:

"California Haunted by Neglect of Infrastructure," Natural Gas Week, December 18, 2000, pp.10-11

Energy Information Administration, Canada Country Analysis Brief (Washington DC, Oct. 2000) pp. 4-5

Mexico Country Briefing, The Economist Intelligence Unit Ltd., EIU ViewsWire, November 3, 2000

"Mexico Calls for Proposals To Open Gas Industry," The Energy Report, Vol. 28, No. 42, October 16, 2000.

auspec

(05/20/2001; 17:56:00 MDT - Msg ID: 54086)

Henri #54036

>Could it be that the obviously higher supply of US Treasury paper is the "Mountain of US dollars" that FOA said would be greeting the US powers that be? If so, it seems to already have started. When the declining price (increasing interest rate)of the long bond crosses the Mortgage rate line I think it will be a well noticed phenomenon that our exported inflation is coming home to roost.>

Henri-- The U.S.S. Bigfloat is returning home, but listing excessively. Blub, blub!

R Powell

(05/20/2001; 18:11:53 MDT - Msg ID: 54087)

Kitco reports

POG up $0.50 in one report, $1.10 in another and $1.40 in the report above their forum discussion. Everything as usual.
Rich

Al Fulchino

(05/20/2001; 18:16:15 MDT - Msg ID: 54088)

Black Blade

Black Blade (05/20/01; 17:46:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 54085)
For Your Consideration - Energy Crisis to Lead to a North American Common Currency?

Me: It would seem logical. In fact the only thing that should or could, I had better say, would be foreign interference from the Eastern hemisphere, who already recognize the need to keep us as isolated as possible.

Also, you referenced what we out here call "drive offs". I sold one station last year, so I am down to two. Once station has always been pre-pay, simply due to the fact that the cashier is in a kiosk. And being a very high volume station, the one attendant would be subject to mucho mucho danger. the other station, on the other hand and the one I sold, "used" to be post-pay. But once the prices got past the 1.30-1.40 range, out came the bandits. Some would even take their plates off prior to driving in. And the worst of it was that many of these, and I do mean many, people are not hurting for money.

Regards,
Al

PS I no longer have any drive offs

Black Blade

(05/20/2001; 18:16:35 MDT - Msg ID: 54089)

Gold Bull Takes Off Again

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.htmlGold shotting up, now up anothe $2.40 per oz. Continuing Fridays rally? Let's watch together, yes. (ANOTHER impression).

Leigh

(05/20/2001; 18:16:45 MDT - Msg ID: 54090)

POG

$2.80 according to Kitco.

Leigh

(05/20/2001; 18:21:17 MDT - Msg ID: 54091)

POG

$3.80!

R Powell

(05/20/2001; 18:22:20 MDT - Msg ID: 54092)

POG at 289.05 up 2.90

At 20:19 New York Time!! Silver unchanged.

Leigh

(05/20/2001; 18:22:31 MDT - Msg ID: 54093)

POG

$4.20!!

auspec

(05/20/2001; 18:24:21 MDT - Msg ID: 54094)

Where Have All The Sellers Gone................??

Retreat, Retreat! That is an OFFICIAL order!

Yes Sir, Generalissimo Green$pandex.

Gandalf the White

(05/20/2001; 18:24:24 MDT - Msg ID: 54095)

Spot is calling for SPIKE !

The Hobbits see $290.35 !!
HERE SPIKE !
<;-)

Leigh

(05/20/2001; 18:28:51 MDT - Msg ID: 54096)

POG

$5.90!!! This is serious.

Gandalf the White

(05/20/2001; 18:29:41 MDT - Msg ID: 54097)

< ; - )>>

Now $292.55

auspec

(05/20/2001; 18:30:32 MDT - Msg ID: 54098)

Parabolic

Nice chart so far!

Gandalf the White

(05/20/2001; 18:32:46 MDT - Msg ID: 54099)

OOPS, there goes ANOTHER rubber tree !

Now $293.25

JMB

(05/20/2001; 18:33:54 MDT - Msg ID: 54100)

LEIGH

Where are you getting these prices? TIA

JMB

(05/20/2001; 18:35:34 MDT - Msg ID: 54101)

LEIGH

Where are you getting these prices? TIA

Leigh

(05/20/2001; 18:35:57 MDT - Msg ID: 54102)

JMB

From Kitco.

Leigh

(05/20/2001; 18:37:43 MDT - Msg ID: 54103)

JMB

Sorry, JMB, I should have said, "UP ____," as in UP $7.20 right now!

auspec

(05/20/2001; 18:37:46 MDT - Msg ID: 54104)

Friends??

Why the Hell didn't someone at least suggest I buy some gold??

Leigh

(05/20/2001; 18:40:46 MDT - Msg ID: 54105)

POG

Up $8.90!!!!!

Gandalf the White

(05/20/2001; 18:42:00 MDT - Msg ID: 54106)

Ok -- THE Hobbits suggest that EVERYONE by Gold from CPM !!

NOW $294.55
+$8.40
<;-)

SHIFTY

(05/20/2001; 18:44:51 MDT - Msg ID: 54107)

Shermag

Thank you .

$hifty

Gandalf the White

(05/20/2001; 18:45:25 MDT - Msg ID: 54108)

AND the thing is -- THAT it has not opened in HK yet !!

<;-)

JMB

(05/20/2001; 18:46:48 MDT - Msg ID: 54109)

The Washington Accord

Congratulations to GATA....you did it guys! The trip to South Africa was a master stroke....brilliant.
This is very similar to the WA spike, only bigger.

Leigh

(05/20/2001; 18:46:53 MDT - Msg ID: 54110)

Kitco Forum

The Kitco Forum is jamming up. Lots of newbie goldbugs tonight.

beesting

(05/20/2001; 18:48:26 MDT - Msg ID: 54111)

At this Rate $300.00 in About 30 minutes.

WWHHHHHOOOOOOOOOPPPPPPPPPPEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!
Its been a long wait!......beesting.

Gandalf the White

(05/20/2001; 18:49:10 MDT - Msg ID: 54112)

< ; - )>>

$295.95
+$9.80

nickel62

(05/20/2001; 18:53:37 MDT - Msg ID: 54113)

I can almost feel the blood coming back into my body....

It is nice to believe in free markets again.

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/20/2001; 18:56:36 MDT - Msg ID: 54114)

USAGOLD forum excerpts: All times BMCT (Branson, Mo. Central Time)

Day 3 - Tuesday, September 28, 1999Tuesday, 09/28/1999 02:10:52BMCT (SteveH @ # 14663) "Approaching 290. Dec gold now $288.60. Asking 288.90.

Tuesday, 09/28/1999 07:46:51BMCT (SteveH @ # 14677) "�Looks like it is meeting some resistance at $293.

Tuesday, 09/28/1999 07:50:21BMCT (Goldfly @ # 14678) "$299.90!!!!$299.90!!!!$299.90"

Tuesday, 09/28/1999 07:58:03BMCT (Tomcat @ # 14679) "Thanks Steve. Quoteline is now quoting $296.78�"

Tuesday, 09/28/1999 08:40:01BMCT (PH in LA @ # 14691) "�Spot gold at Monex $304 (+$21).

Tuesday, 09/28/1999 08:44:03BMCT (Leigh @ # 14692) "Silver has gained 19-1/2 cents. Maybe FOA was right; maybe it will gain a dollar today! How does he know these things?"

Tuesday, 09/28/1999 09:38:07BMCT (USAGOLD @ # 14698) "Today's Gold Report: Day Two of the Big Breakout. Gold up $21.70! Well over $300 spot price�the old resistence.Spot about $304.00. If you are short you are dead.. Near dead anyway�"

Tuesday, 09/28/1999 09:47:32BMCT (Mr. Gresham @ # 14701) "�Wish you'd bought? Remember what the "stockies" advisors say: �Buy on dips� IF THERE ARE ANY"

Tuesday, 09/28/1999 10:56:52BMCT (elevator guy @ # 14709) "My palms are sweating, as I add up the profits! Its all too much for a po country boy like me."

Tuesday, 09/28/1999 11:50:01BMCT (Goldfly � 3 posts in rapid succession) "Here we go again!! $305.70 Spiking!�Up Up and Awaaaaaaaayy $307.50 Wheeeeeee! �$308.90!!!!!

Tuesday, 09/28/1999 12:08:07BMCT (PH in LA @ # 14722) "FLASH!!!Silver FLASH!!! Limit up is $.50 on the futures for silver. (Isn't it?) Up $.41 so far. Limit up still possible today?

Tuesday, 09/28/1999 12:21:19BMCT (Goldfly @ # 14728) "Whats the limit on Gold? $318.50!!! $318.50!!! $318.50!!!

Tuesday, 09/28/1999 12:24;10BMCT (714 @ # 14729) "POG $320+

Tuesday, 09/28/1999 12:26:08BMCT (Goldfly @ # 14730) "Are you tired of hearing from me? Say so and I'll stop! In the meantime�.$321.70!!! $321.70!!! $321.70!!!"
�think I smoked it there�After topping $327+, we seem to have

Black Blade

(05/20/2001; 19:00:22 MDT - Msg ID: 54115)

UP UP UP and AWAY!!!!!

http://www.kitco.com/market/Gold flying higher +$9.85. Break $300.00 soon I think unless Hong Kong causes trouble for some reason. But I'm optimistic that won't happen. Keepin my fingers crossed.

Leigh

(05/20/2001; 19:00:53 MDT - Msg ID: 54116)

Hill Billy Mitchell

Hill Billy, are you trying to throw COLD WATER on our excitement?? Trying to EMBARRASS us for our misguided outbursts of the past?

This is a NEW GOLD MARKET.

auspec

(05/20/2001; 19:01:05 MDT - Msg ID: 54117)

Field Report

Enemy bunkers dead ahead at $300, Sir Midas, I can't tell how well fortified they are!

Thank you Wiz!

Artie Farkle

(05/20/2001; 19:06:10 MDT - Msg ID: 54118)

(No Subject)

I'm glad I added another 5OZ. on Friday : )

Canuck

(05/20/2001; 19:07:01 MDT - Msg ID: 54119)

New York is going to freak.

Gandalf the White

(05/20/2001; 19:07:19 MDT - Msg ID: 54120)

DID you all see that ?

When SPIKE got to +$10 -- SOME fools are trying to stop the TRAIN !! Have driven it back to +$7.85 at $294.00
BITE them SPIKE !
<;-)

auspec

(05/20/2001; 19:11:34 MDT - Msg ID: 54121)

Behind Enemy Lines

Gen. AG to pvt. Munk: Finish cleaning out your pants NOW, and get back to your position! Call out the national treasury.........WHAT? It's already WHAT??

Black Blade

(05/20/2001; 19:12:24 MDT - Msg ID: 54122)

Still Going Higher!

Gold now up +$11.40!!! Energy likely to follow suit as well. Launching Golden Lifeboats.

Is anyone willing to bet that Larry Kudlow will now say that inflation is a big problem now that gold as an indicator says so? I doubt it.

Gandalf the White

(05/20/2001; 19:12:32 MDT - Msg ID: 54123)

WAY to go SPIKE !

$298.05
+$11.90
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(05/20/2001; 19:12:55 MDT - Msg ID: 54124)

WAY to go SPIKE !

$298.05
+$11.90
<;-)

nickel62

(05/20/2001; 19:15:00 MDT - Msg ID: 54125)

Andy Smith from Mitsui says.......

not to worry since gold has been demonetized and therefore it can't possibly go up. And if it does then the central banks of the world should intervene to save his banking clients asses. And people pay for this research?

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/20/2001; 19:15:01 MDT - Msg ID: 54126)

Leigh @ # 54116 Cold Water, Sorry.

Lady Leigh,

Please, you know me better than that! Sorry about the garbage on my last post. That has never happened to me before. I do not what happened.

But that is not what caused your complaint. I thought it would be good to have a comparison with the last time around as we go through this move. We will see a difference in patterns if this time it is different.

I am having as much fun as the rest of you. I spent hours and hours to provide what I thought would be a service. If you would prefer me not to continue with this, just say so, or make a suggestion as to how I might improve the timing. I may just post the rest of my work in this area by e-mail to Working-Kirk. I really was doing it as a way to give him an answer to his request as to how this time might be different from the last spike of consequence.

Part of my last post had some a post from Another and FOA, but that portion was wiped out by the garbling that occurred. I may try to get the rest of the post in later, unless of course you or others object.

Very respectfully,

HBM

aunuggets

(05/20/2001; 19:15:01 MDT - Msg ID: 54127)

Who Let The BULLS Out ????

Snort -- Snort -- Snort, Snort, Snort, Snort !!!

R Powell

(05/20/2001; 19:15:50 MDT - Msg ID: 54128)

Are we having fun!

Kitco reports POG +11.40
AND
POS +.06

Black Blade

(05/20/2001; 19:16:23 MDT - Msg ID: 54129)

And Barrick Recently Sold Forward at $270.00! What a Bunch of Buffoons!

Think about this one - Barrick recently sold forward a significant portion of their future production at $270.00 per oz. What is gold now? $297.00 per oz. and going higher! Hey Munky - Smooth Move! Better get Oliphant (rhymes with elephant) to tell us how smart you are.

Leigh

(05/20/2001; 19:19:11 MDT - Msg ID: 54130)

991c671542

Oh, Hill Billy, I was teasing you! Go ahead and post anything you want to. I took a nap this afternoon so I could watch the goings on tonight, and it's fun to see what everyone is posting.

We were two years younger back then! We didn't know the WA spike would only last a few days! Hopefully this lift-off will last.

Artie Farkle

(05/20/2001; 19:20:10 MDT - Msg ID: 54131)

(No Subject)

I recall reading something about expected resistance at around $291.

I can live with that kind of resistance. : )

Leigh

(05/20/2001; 19:21:21 MDT - Msg ID: 54132)

Oh, NO!

Oh, no, I just posted my password! I will STOP posting for tonight and BEG Randy/MK to cancel my password ASAP! If you guys see terrible things get posted under my name, it will not be my doing.

Randy, HELP!!!

auspec

(05/20/2001; 19:21:48 MDT - Msg ID: 54133)

From Generalissimo G.----- "Quick, get the Ethiopian or Algerian Central Bank on the phone! Where is clinton when I need him? Oh, that figures. Find a WHITE FLAG, dagnabbitt!"

Welcome newbies!

Gandalf the White

(05/20/2001; 19:23:16 MDT - Msg ID: 54134)

Keep them COMING HBM !!

Hill Billy Mitchell (05/20/01; 19:15:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 54126)
Leigh @ # 54116 Cold Water, Sorry.
====
I am sure that Leigh was kidding !
and it has now slowed down to a slight GOLDEN roar, SO KEEP them COMING !
<;-)

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/20/2001; 19:30:24 MDT - Msg ID: 54138)

May day, may day, may day

Randy, hurry please!

My wife will kill me if she sees what they are doing with Lady Leigh's password.

HBM

SteveH

(05/20/2001; 19:33:28 MDT - Msg ID: 54139)

Reality Check

Folks. We have been here before, before, before, before. We don't have control of this situation. For whatever reason, those who control gold wanted it up, at least to this level. Where it goes now depends on where they want to tomorrow. In the meantime, chear or skepticism, we watch and hope, but we have been here before, haven't we. If she blows $50 up, then we know, this is new. Otherwise, we have been here before, eh?

Gandalf the White

(05/20/2001; 19:36:56 MDT - Msg ID: 54140)

Well it looks as if SPIKE is tired for a while !

now down to $292.00
See you all in the morn.
Good night Leigh as you should leave until Jeff has a chance to "clean up the Board".
<;-(

Black Blade

(05/20/2001; 19:38:11 MDT - Msg ID: 54141)

Gold Dropping.

Gold price falling now - bummer.

The imposters ISP code could be tracked through the ISP server. I would suggest that it be posted when found and a barage of spam would be in order, also most ISPs will cancel accounts of scum like that. Not to mention that there is the possibility of legal action if desired.

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/20/2001; 19:41:16 MDT - Msg ID: 54142)

USAGOLD forum excerpts: All times BMCT (repost of garbled portion)

Tuesday, 09/28/1999 12:26:08BMCT (Goldfly @ # 14730) "Are you tired of hearing from me? Say so and I'll stop! In the meantime�.$321.70!!! $321.70!!! $321.70!!!"
�think I smoked it there�After topping $327+, we seem to have an attack from the shorts. These people ought to just give it up and cut their losses. We're at around $310 now.

Tuesday, 09/28/1999 13:10:10BMCT (TownCrier @ # 14744) "Gold hit 16-month highs, up 19 percent on the week (link provided) �There's definitely a fundamental change in attitude towards gold. We have certainly gone from bearish to neutral,� said HSBC's Fava. Townie's comments: "For the most part, today's gold market articles are laughable, with traders and brokers standing around, blinking in a daze with very little to offer in the way of intelligent analysis or fundamental assessment. We'll keep searching for the important comments�the subtle hints dropped here and there by the FinMin's and their equivalents."

Tuesday, 09/28/1999 14:54:08BMCT (megatron @ # 14755) "This is unreal!!! The last ride of the millennium belongs to GOLD!!! 1000 years. The drama is giving me a stomach ache. Goodbye Bear market. Bring on $400, but I might not survive.

Tuesday, 09/28/1999 14:04:04BMCT (Golden Boy @ # 14756) "Rumors on the street that a couple of hedge funds are being forced to go public after the market closes today and reveal their gold short position. 3000 tonnes is being rumored with these hedge funds. This could get really interesting!"

Tuesday, 09/28/1999 22:11:52BMCT (ANOTHER @ # 14770)
"Reply, USAGOLD (09/17/99; 21:11:52MDT - Msg ID:13862)
Another, my friend, I have missed our discussions in recent months as it seems that you and I, both, have been occupied elsewhere. Much has changed since our last exchange(s). I sense that our friends at the central banks have begun to worry about their outstanding gold, as should the private lenders. The Dutch central bank felt it necessary to call off the dogs by saying they are no longer an easy mark. And now Japan tells us that they will buy if the IMF should want to sell -- a gold poor island nation in the East with too many dollars and no longer enough time. So is lending gold at 4% a good deal? Or should we consider anything we lend at that price, "lost assets"?........Is the golden intention floated by Japan today as important as I think it is, or something to be discounted? I remember your words of wisdom on England...a lost land. I remember your words warning us of the state of the LBMA which is now so apparent. What next? my good friend. Is this "a night to think about gold?" What say you about Japan and Europe and the future of gold? Mr. Kosares, we speak again. This gold market, it be not as before, yes? For six years and a time, we build the "alliance". Now all join and say "no more" unfair currency. This day I stand with Europe on ground that is stable for the future of our children. Ground made hard with gold that moves "no more"! Your dollar will now fight the "good battle" on it's own. From early this year it finds no support from "cheap oil". Soon it will find no support from "oil settlement". Without the "good backing" that comes with others "holding dollars", the world must now settle dollars in a true gold price. It is time, gold again becomes the money our fathers knew. It's dollar price will run now. Fear this as the banker is afraid of his creditors, for it now runs long my friend and stops only for the destruction of its market. From the days of our youth we see not again a market such as this. All will soon race for the bullion metal and few will walk away with gold. Your mind does consider the "right number" for gold yes? I say, add that ten times and this you will pay if one waits. Japan? With no trade how will a nation supply its oil? The oil that built them does now break them. Buy gold we say, years ago, hear us they did not. The yen eyes and ears always face across the pacific. Even as their future was thru Hong Kong to Europe. Now this yen will fail a nation that forgot how it's sun still sets at their backs.
Sir, the bullion in the many thousands will change the common landscape of your land to as rocks and bushes. It will also grow the most green lawn for holders of Euros.
May many flowers present your home in the good light of old wealth. The old wealth that we find in the new value of gold!

Thank You Another"

Tuesday, 09/28/1999 18:12:39BMCT (FOA @ # 14775) "Comment, Goldspoon, What a day it was! The "Bullion Boys" at USAGOLD Forum got to march at the front of the victory parade. How about that Golden sun? It's a triple crown winner again! Up over 8% while the other metal horses had to eat his dust. Even most of the major gold mines went up, but are still out on the track coming in as stragglers (except for Goldfields, up about 17%) (I hate it when my only little mine investment goes up) (very bad for credibility) (smile). Somehow I think this is a bad precedent to start doing this. I'll stop while ahead. We can be sure that some Bullion houses are now the proud owner of defaulted gold paper. More of it will come pilling in through out this week. This is just the beginning, because this house of cards just collapsed. For a while there (back in the summer), it looked like the ECB was just going to let the dollar / IMF slowly flood itself with gold paper until the market failed. Truly, the only way
to make it more valuable, was to sell more of it and make the paper price fall. Now, they pulled the plug on them and will let the market eat itself. Make no mistake, this is no too way trading market! It's going to run until someone big fails and shuts it down. We don't just work out thousands of tonnes of short gold positions with a few days and $50 up. I think the gold shares see this and are trying to realistically price in what several locked limit days will do to the infrastructure. Yes, everyone is hedged and covered, but this little move has most likely cleaned out the present counterparties equity already. If the dow, bonds and dollar start selling off big, they (funds) have run out of money and are selling for more. More cash will bring waves of paper selling on comex. Yet, the very equity selling that raises the funds for those waves will bring even more loses to the hedge funds. They used the old gold financing to buy what will be sold now. So look for intraday waves of more exaggerated form than today's +44 move. Still, all in all, if the banks or the Fed can stand it, this market will run through 500 or 600 on this first kill off. I'm standing here and watching all this with no risk assets. For me it's all very interesting. As for the bears being cut into bar - B - Q stakes, they can't lose what they never had. Most of the US paper game is all in ones mind anyway. I have a mountain of notes to cover, so I'll step away. Thanks FOA"

Tuesday, 09/28/1999 19:38:42BMCT (ORO @ # 14782) Sir ORO (provides link to Bloomberg article quoting Kaplin about dealers being scared�"The fear is palpable�they now have to hedge $325 and $350 calls that they threw in the desk drawer," Kaplin said. Kaplin expects the rally to continue and suggests the price could rally another $30 on Wednesday�

Tuesday, 09/28/1999 21:16:04BMCT (PH in LA @ # 14797) "Kind of Dead in Here"
Yeah, Megatron, You'd think things would be more cheerful but the past two days have been so emotionally exhausting. It reminds me of the LA riots. After three days of rioting it just calmed down by itself. People were just too tired and emotionally drained to continue. That seems like the feeling tonight. We'll probably get a rest for a day or two just to let the human emotions recharge"

Tuesday, 09/28/1999 22:19:50BMCT (koan @ # 14806) "FOA - Golden Sun vs Siver Moon. My server has been down since yesterday morning - missed it all! I wasn't backing off my prediction. With all due respect, my quick and dirty calculations show gold up 9% at close and silver up 7.7%. That is not enough of a difference to quibble about. Besides us workers don't get paid until friday night. This race is $500 vs $10. Silver Moon is stalking the leader settling into an easy pace along the rail, letting golden Sun break the wind. Soon Silver Moon will move right around Golden Sun and win going away. Regards Koan

Tuesday, 09/28/1999 24:27:03BMCT (Black Blade @ # 14818) "Look out for Asia. Oh no, gold just dropped $6.15 in HK. I think maybe a little profit coming off the table? I think think I'll open a bottle of Negra Modelo and watch out tonight."

Tuesday, 09/28/1999 24:29:01BMCT (Black Blade @ # 14819) "Oh, come on now! Now down $7.40! Maybe I'll open a case.

admin

(05/20/2001; 19:51:37 MDT - Msg ID: 54143)

Leigh,

Your password has been disabled. You will now have to re-register. Sorry for the inconvenience.

Cavan Man

(05/20/2001; 19:52:12 MDT - Msg ID: 54144)

SteveH

Right; you are! While I think it is safe to say most if not all mining shares should run pretty good the next couple of days, I stand ready to sell immediately if not sooner.

We've learned the market is oversold and shorted to the extreme c/o gold carry, etc. We've learned repeatedly how strong demand is yet watched the POG languish in the betting arenas that control the price. We know the history of gold in the 20th century including (e.g. London Gold Pool). Even though most of us have earned a P.H.D. reading here these last two years or so, we know the market for gold is still opaque and relatively risky. We've learned a rally like this can be snuffed with lots of paper going the other way if possession is not taken. HOWEVER, the alleged shortage of metal, inflation, GATA and the policies of CB's just might make a difference this time.

IMHO, we are only beginning the long climb to the summit. We'll slip and regress along the way. Disclaimer: I'm only a two year veteran here and speak from experience.

Mr Gresham

(05/20/2001; 19:54:49 MDT - Msg ID: 54145)

HBM, Leigh

HBM -- thanks for the historic flashbacks!

Leigh -- keep your head up; (it's like a scene from The Exorcist, isn't it? we know it's not you so come back ASAP.)

"Tonight, tonight, we'll have our spike tonight..."

"For there's nowhere else on the Net that I would rather be..." than with you all at this time. May we long remember it.

Sorry, Simply Me, I get weepy old showtunes at moments like this, but yes, the mowing went well with that fiddlin'...

aunuggets

(05/20/2001; 19:56:14 MDT - Msg ID: 54146)

Newton was right -- Gravity SUX !

Ever had the suspicion that the shorts are becoming even more greedy than usual ?

Let it run, short it at the top, and beat it back down again........ also to discourage the bulls, bugs, and PGAs into selling out to frustration.

Methinks New York to Asia phone lines are on fire tonight !

VanRip

(05/20/2001; 20:08:21 MDT - Msg ID: 54147)

(No Subject)

http://www.gold-eagle.com/goldcorner.html Could it be that Tokyo's TOCOM is limit up in gold (and silver) with June silver not quite there?

Click on Tokyo Gold at the link.

WW Oracle

(05/20/2001; 20:13:44 MDT - Msg ID: 54148)

Hmmm....

When GATA said that the Chinese were buying up gold all over Africa, they didn't say WHICH Chinese, did they?

Guess it was those Hong Kong fellas who are now profit-taking; gold now up only $3.60.

canamami

(05/20/2001; 20:18:14 MDT - Msg ID: 54149)

Too little, too late, for me anyway

My silver company warrants expired, and my gold penny stock is delisted. Even if the rally sticks, I've already been "hammered". I do have one promising gold company, so all is not lost.

Advantages of physical: it doesn't expire, or get delisted.

Congrats to those with physical, and quality shares.

SteveH

(05/20/2001; 20:25:31 MDT - Msg ID: 54150)

canamami

The delisted company will re-list, imo. Matter of time. Just saving money to wait out the bottom. If and this is a big IF, this is the real thing, then we will be rewarded, imo.

HK is quiet right now, they knocked it back but not all the way from Friday. Let's see what happens towards dawn EST.

canamami

(05/20/2001; 20:36:13 MDT - Msg ID: 54151)

Questions for those wiser than me

1. Who are the protagonists, and the antagonists?

2. What are the short, medium and long-term agendas of each specific major player?

3. What assets are at the diposal of each, directly and indirectly, and what is the timeframe for deployment?

4. Can small players overwhelm the big players, or can the small players affect the outcome at all?

5. The role of the US administration, if at all. The administration is more honourable and ethical than the previous group. However, Bush pere is on the Board of hedger extraordinaire Barrick; is this relevant?

6. Will the lid be kept on until the end of the month, per an internet piece widely circulated in recent days?

7. Did some low or middle-level US Justice lawyer, at the last minute looking for the coup-de-grace to really hammer Reg Howe good and get Court costs, actually inquire as to what "custodial gold" means, and did what he/she learned shock him/her, and is this knowledge now winding its way through the bureaucracy and the new administration?

Ulysses

(05/20/2001; 20:39:47 MDT - Msg ID: 54152)

canamani, Steve H

http://www.usagold.comWhich gold stock is that, canamani?

Don't overestimate these guys, Steve. They're not omnipotent.The market is,tho. When they see their fortunes changing,they'll go with the flow. If bonds and the dollar index tank, gold will go crazy. (so will inflation)

canamami

(05/20/2001; 20:42:17 MDT - Msg ID: 54153)

Reply to SteveH

Esteemed sir, I do hope you're right re our mutually held penny stock. May it rise again!! Well, at least rise; it never really had much height to begin with, come to think of it :-( , though it does have potential.

canamami

(05/20/2001; 20:48:32 MDT - Msg ID: 54154)

Reply to Ulysses

Ulysses,

I understand the house rules prohibit mentioning or discussing individual gold companies as investments per se. I know people sometimes mention specific companies to illustrate a point, or discuss general issues like hedging, but not in terms of what's a good company to buy into. So, I'm sorry I can't answer your question. I stand to be corrected by MK or Randy if I am in error on this point.

ROSEBUD99

(05/20/2001; 21:00:26 MDT - Msg ID: 54155)

Black Blade... Larry Kudlow

Believe it or not... Larry said on Friday after the gold rise that the Fed had done enough ! He must have taken the wrong pill before going on the air.

JMB

(05/20/2001; 21:23:57 MDT - Msg ID: 54156)

The Night That LEIGH Wigged Out

Has a nice ring to it.

Gandalf the White

(05/20/2001; 21:30:27 MDT - Msg ID: 54157)

Interesting Data from Quote.com !!

http://www.quote.com/quotecom/livecharts/applet.asp?symbols=&mode=At 21:00 NY time, at the top of the SPIKE, it appears that UNLIMITED contracts were sold to any and all buyers. Enter "GC1M" in the SYM BOX and LOOK at that volume !!
"They"are not giving in easily !!!
SPIKE is getting rested for ANOTHER try soon.
<;-)

SHIFTY

(05/20/2001; 21:52:05 MDT - Msg ID: 54158)

Periodic Ponzi Update PPU

http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htmNasdaq 2,198.88 + Dow 11,301.74 = 13,500.62 divide by 2 =

6750.31 Ponzi

Up 285.94 from last week.

My guess ?....

Guiness Record Book Sucker rally!

Thank you Sir RossL for the link.

$hifty

elevator guy

(05/20/2001; 22:00:59 MDT - Msg ID: 54159)

Conflicting reports

In one GATA dispatch, it was reported from a COMEX mamber that GS was screaming SOLD-COME ON, at offers to buy paper contracts.

But earlier this week, someone quoted AG as advising the wise to close out their hedge books by Friday. (of last week).

Now my point is, how could these two things be true simultaneously? If AG is taking his finger out of the dam, why is GS bothering to bail water?

Dont they usually move in sync?

Maybe GS was just attempting to buy time, or stop the train if at all possible. What if everyone bought paper at the same time? I guess we'd all end up holding the "bag".

Gandalf the White

(05/20/2001; 22:23:52 MDT - Msg ID: 54160)

elevator guy -- msg#: 54159)

elevator guy (05/20/01; 22:00:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 54159)
Conflicting reports
+++
I believe that you misunderstood --- GS was SELLING paper contracts to anyone that would BID !!
Looks as if SOMEONE did the same IN SPADES tonight at 21:00 NY time on the COMEX to STOP the Spot SPIKE !
--
<;-)

Black Blade

(05/20/2001; 22:28:03 MDT - Msg ID: 54161)

Gone Negative

Gold now down -$1.65. It was fun while it lasted, but it does show how quickly and volatile the market can get. I guess I will finish off this Negra Modelo and hit the sack.

Golden Dreams all!

- Black Blade

elevator guy

(05/20/2001; 22:50:24 MDT - Msg ID: 54162)

Gandalf- buddy-

Going back to re-read my post, even squinting between the lines, I cant figure how it could be interpreted that I meant anything but that GS was selling.

Anyway, no matter.

working-kirk

(05/20/2001; 22:52:44 MDT - Msg ID: 54163)

Don't stop buying just yet

http://cgi.ebay.com/aw-cgi/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem⁢em=1430221742Hillbilly,
you mentioned,even if the rally rises so much that I would be shut out, that is no reason to stop buying gold or silver.

I have no intention of stopping but my paycheck only goes so far. Meaniwhile if I can't buy bullion I will get my gold and silver in another form. The above is a link to an
auction I just won on ebay. It has at less three pound of silver in it.

For the boys who like golden toys, you may be interested in
the link to the following items. (Esecially you black blade
since you wanted a gold plate car. I rather take the train, and at it's current price, it is below what it orignally sold for

Hurry it ends tomorrow

http://cgi.ebay.com/aw-cgi/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem⁢em=1145366026

or if you are into steam and Lionel
http://cgi.ebay.com/aw-cgi/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem⁢em=1146341684

Gandalf the White

(05/20/2001; 22:55:31 MDT - Msg ID: 54164)

Sorry SIR Elevator Guy

I was thinking in different terms !
the point is that GS must not have been told by AG to do anything different than they have done in the past !
Someone stopped the rally tonight with a TON of PAPER !
I shall try to think straighter.
<;-)

elevator guy

(05/20/2001; 23:01:32 MDT - Msg ID: 54165)

Sir Gandalf-

Regarding your astute observation about the volume available and the rsulting drop in price, it seems
that the sellers are very confident that they wont have to pay up. (Unless they are pissing into the wind, to save the bigger dollar game)

If the former is true, at this point, some 286 June puts seem like a reasonably safe bet.

Gandalf the White

(05/20/2001; 23:02:11 MDT - Msg ID: 54166)

working-kirk (#54163)

How much of that is BRASS and how much Silver ?
Do you play?
<;-)

elevator guy

(05/20/2001; 23:08:28 MDT - Msg ID: 54167)

But then again,

If you were to look at 14:30 Firday, there was also a spike of volume, even though the price was still low. It is this volume that spiked the price, so maybe we can not look at volume as an indicator of contracts available, but only as a measure of what was traded. And of course, the volume could also be the invisible hand, injecting sales.

What was that about open interest again?

Gandalf the White

(05/20/2001; 23:22:45 MDT - Msg ID: 54168)

SIR Elevator Guy (msg#: 54167)

Friday's COMEX volume spikes at 12:30 and 14:20 were both price uptickers !!! Tonight's volume spike was a big STOPPER. We shall see what the NY COMEX action is today.
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(05/20/2001; 23:25:52 MDT - Msg ID: 54169)

RE: COMEX OI for Sir Elevator Guy

COMEX OI results for Friday will be seen Monday as the numbers for Thursday were 67+K June and 17+K for Aug.
These new numbers should be very interesting !!
<;-)

Simply Me

(05/20/2001; 23:47:31 MDT - Msg ID: 54170)

HHMMMM...Who's shaking the Piggy Bank?

Still excited about the spike....but, hmmmm....doesn't the line on the Kitco spot gold chart look like the actions of someone shaking coins out of a piggy bank? Straight up, then a sharp move down, a little up, then sharp down. The moves after the last spike up looked like that, too; but I didn't mention it. DARN..those last few coins are so hard to shake out. Wonder how many they'll get this time?

Mr Gresham: It truly has been a show tune kind of night!
(J.C. Superstar) Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs, why do slam gold with "sell" attacks?

working-kirk

(05/20/2001; 23:56:36 MDT - Msg ID: 54171)

Silver and gold toys (my new horn)

http://cgi.ebay.com/aw-cgi/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem⁢em=1430221742Gandalf the White asked in usagold.com msg#: 54166

> How much of that is BRASS and how much Silver ?
> Do you play? <;-)

About 70% of the horn (not counting the interior valves) is solid silver. And yes I do play.

The part where you blow into it (The leadpipe and the part where music comes out (the bell) are made of silver. Just like silver seems to have a positive affect on lightwaves it also affect soundwaves. It makes the tone just that much more musical. All metal instruments that are high quality
flutes, trumpets, trombones, have some silver in it. Nowadays it is about 10% but the farther back you go the more silver. In fact, coin silver, the mixtures made up in 90% junk coins was very popular for
trumpets and cornets at the turn of the century. I found out this accidently. I love cartoons and wanted to get the
trumpet sound you hear Betty boop cartoons. So I brought an
antique horn. When I played it, this antique was SWEET! I had just to figure out what made it so musical. turned out it was 90% silver. Knowing then just how musically silver made a horn, and what I knew about the shortage of silver and how it valve was bond to increase I started some serious
(but far underpriced) buying of horns. They are antiques but if I have to buy one today, the starting price would be at $3,000+

I don't know what exactly the bell would weight but I took one of my other horns and weight the bell and it came just under two 1/2 pound. SO sayong I got three pounds of silver would mean I paid 5.50 an ounce which is more than reasonable considering the amount of artwork scrolled into these antiques and the fact since they were the top of the line horn in their day, most likely has gold trim to make it look even prettier. These antiques horns are trudy a work of art. Not only in sound but in looks. (Still if I can get the gold plated car like Black blade, I would gladly trade all my horns for that car.

Even accounting for inflation, I still got a bargain still I paid LESS then what it originally sold for. I haven't dated this hornbut it is a safe bet when new would have sold for $300 -$400 dollars.

Anyway, I believe there is another person interested in silver and not only buys coins and bullion but silverware and just waiting for his bargains to make him rich as well.
Maybe he might be willing to divulge a few secrets about
silverware as I have with silver musical instruments.

FredBear

(05/21/2001; 00:10:32 MDT - Msg ID: 54172)

Black Blade (05/20/01; 10:30:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 54059)

Blake Blade,

See my post

FredBear (05/19/01; 10:08:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 53990)

for why the USA may not have to remain an oil importer forever. Technology will not stop progressing, only paper assets will.

View Yesterday's Discussion.

(05/21/2001; 01:11:32 MDT - Msg ID: 54173)

GOLD SHARES SHARPLY UP IN S.AFRICA APPROX MIDNT EDT

APPROXIMATE PRICES AT MIDNIGHT EDT (NEW YORK TIME) IN
SOUTH AFRICA:

ANGLO GOLD + 24.00 RAND ( FULL SHARE, NOT ADR HALF)

GOLD FIELDS + 2.85 RAND

HARMONY + 4.10 RAND

(05/21/2001; 01:19:37 MDT - Msg ID: 54174)

CORRECTION: TIME APPRX 3AM EDT SA GOLD SHARES UP

CORRECTION IN TIME OF PRICE SNAP SHOT

CORRECT TIME IS 3 AM EDT ( NEW YORK TIME )

APPROXIMATE PRICES AT 3 AM EDT (NEW YORK TIME) IN
SOUTH AFRICA:
ANGLO GOLD + 24.00 RAND ( FULL SHARE, NOT ADR HALF)
GOLD FIELDS + 2.85 RAND
HARMONY + 4.10 RAND

SHIFTY

(05/21/2001; 01:35:47 MDT - Msg ID: 54175)

Do you know what that would = in US $ ?

$hifty

Old Yeller

(05/21/2001; 01:56:53 MDT - Msg ID: 54176)

Look out,our arena could be the next venue of intense interest

Okay,I'll admit it,I've had the post WA agreement gold suffocation deja vu all weekend.Although there are just so many factors going our way,the fear of getting crushed by the TPTB again has led to extreme jitters on my part.However,gauging the early trading and reading Murphy's commentary,I feel a lot more optimistic.

Might get a wee bit crowded in these parts soon.

Artie Farkle

(05/21/2001; 02:01:00 MDT - Msg ID: 54177)

SHIFTY

One Rand equals approx. twenty cents US

Rockgrabber

(05/21/2001; 02:01:38 MDT - Msg ID: 54178)

Sir Black Blade

A Negro Modelo Sounds good!!I was going to post an article the othernight , but you found it anyhow!! I wanted to hear you think. Funny article there. Off to do some research.

Love ya guys!

Rockgrabber

(05/21/2001; 02:04:41 MDT - Msg ID: 54179)

I just got up(54041)

#54041, Sir Black Blade, that was the article I am talking of. Now that is an article without much thought put into it.

Canuck

(05/21/2001; 03:59:05 MDT - Msg ID: 54180)

Nervous

TSE closed today (holiday) Hong Kong closing on a little uptick, London on its own.

Showtime in N.Y. in a couple hours, I hope they are kind.

Canuck.

Canuck

(05/21/2001; 04:03:47 MDT - Msg ID: 54181)

Re: ax message

The uptick in SA stocks is a carry-over from Friday, no?

Or is this going into today?

Canuck

(05/21/2001; 04:06:29 MDT - Msg ID: 54182)

Bonds

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/hamilton052101.htmlExcellent discussion (Hamilton) on bonds.

Long bond displaying nervousness towards equities, dollar, policy.

Rockgrabber

(05/21/2001; 04:17:45 MDT - Msg ID: 54183)

I just cant sleep tonight

at 5:31 a.m. I will probably get very tired suddenly if the price drops(Pac Time) Cali Time. hhmmm, even looks as if the clock is working tonight, power is on, right on!! Looks like we have a pretty good heat spell coming for perhaps around tuesday. Blackouts?? I think so. I have a sinister mind I think. I like to see us suffer. Our ignorance is to great not to suffer.

The Invisible Hand

(05/21/2001; 04:45:35 MDT - Msg ID: 54184)

Thank You A/FOA

for having shown us that we would arrive here.
I'm flabbergasted to see it become reality (perhaps a revenge aqgainst all naysayers?).
And thank you Centennial for having provided this Forum.

FredBear

(05/21/2001; 04:45:38 MDT - Msg ID: 54185)

IBM's Pixie Dust

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/010521/0048.htmlSnippet:

SAN JOSE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 21, 2001--IBM today announced that it is using just a few atoms of ``pixie dust'' to push back the data storage industry's most formidable barrier.

The company is first to mass-produce computer hard disk drives using a revolutionary new type of magnetic coating that is eventually expected to quadruple the data density of current hard disk drive products -- a level previously thought to be impossible, but crucial to continue feeding the information-hungry Internet economy. For consumers, increased data density will help hasten the transition in home entertainment from passive analog technologies to interactive digital formats.

The key to IBM's new data storage breakthrough is a three-atom-thick layer of the element ruthenium, a precious metal similar to platinum, sandwiched between two magnetic layers. That only a few atoms could have such a dramatic impact caused some IBM scientists to refer to the ruthenium layer informally as ``pixie dust.''

JMB

(05/21/2001; 04:57:53 MDT - Msg ID: 54186)

Lease Rates up a little

That should help, and what a wild night in OZ land we had.

auspec

(05/21/2001; 05:00:52 MDT - Msg ID: 54187)

Leigh

Those RascalsWoe is me, the guilt is unbearable, for I fear one of those imposters was in my household last night. I can only say that all the "children" have USAGOLD access. Please do not have them spammed for they meant no harm, only humor. That I should not need legal representation over this dastardly act, but if so the plea would be temporary inscumity. Trusting your wounds will heal quickly and my password is still intact.
auscum

SteveH

(05/21/2001; 05:47:17 MDT - Msg ID: 54188)

Sharefin

www.kitco.comGold is stretching now. Jumping higher than overnight.

This from Sharefin:

Date: Mon May 21 2001 07:26
sharefin (The Cabal at work) ID#284255:
Copyright � 2000 sharefin/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
They were caught in the act doing what they do best.
Controling the price.
Gold was close to busting through $300 so one of the big boys stepped up to the plate and dumped 1200 contracts.
All 1200 contracts went through in a one minute time frame.
An instantaneous dampener to the rally.
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/990444275790?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=COMEX:GC01M∬erval=10:255&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=0&Study=VOL&Param1=0&Param2=0&Param3=0&FontSize=9

This isn't the work of small parties but rather one of the heavyweights.
Exerting control on the price.

The so called cabal manipulating these markets.
Anyone who doubts that this happened/happens needs their heads read.
They are either ignorant or choose to be so.

This is the sort of behaviour GATA is complaining of.
This is the sort of behaviour that all goldstock holders should be complaining of.
This is the sort of behaviour that needs to be stopped

Gold would be well above $300 - $325 today if these big guys hadn't stepped up and dumped all over the price.

Please note the volumes on the chart.
Earleir today you could view this chart on a one minute basis and observe the trade in size.

Read the tape & wake up to the market you're dealing with.

WW Oracle

(05/21/2001; 06:03:00 MDT - Msg ID: 54189)

Whoa!

Where did that huge $1.50 spread come from?

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/21/2001; 06:16:34 MDT - Msg ID: 54190)

WW Oracle @ # 54189

Sir, That is noteworthy. For those who are in the market for bullion coins, brace yourself. The spread on bullion coins grew rediculously last time around. I attributed it to the compounding affect of Y2K with that spike. Partly true, but the real cause was determined to be brokers fears of getting burnt during the periods of heightened volatility.

HBM

RossL

(05/21/2001; 06:25:32 MDT - Msg ID: 54191)

Too big to fail

Has GS or one of the big banks been given a green light to hold down the price until the end of May? The report by Chapman alleges that Greenspan gave shorts until the end of May to cover. GS sure is acting like they can sell paper gold at any volume without liability. Judging by the recent gains in open interest and Sharefin's remarks, GS could have sold 5 to 10 thousand contracts in the last few days. Is a bailout in the works?

WW Oracle

(05/21/2001; 06:40:57 MDT - Msg ID: 54192)

@RossL: You may be right -

especially since GS is the only U.S. institution whose gold obligations are openly guaranteed by the Fed.

FredBear

(05/21/2001; 06:45:57 MDT - Msg ID: 54193)

COMEX Session

The forces of EEEEEEEEEEVIL came out selling and tried to drive Gold down, but we just set a new session high.

Now 298.60, the overnight high can be tested.

FredBear

(05/21/2001; 06:47:27 MDT - Msg ID: 54194)

COMEX Silver

Silver for July delivery is up almost 7 cents.

Goldfly

(05/21/2001; 06:48:47 MDT - Msg ID: 54195)

Up $4 dollars in 20 minutes!

http://www.kitco.com/image/nygold.gif
292.50

Spiking!

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/21/2001; 06:54:30 MDT - Msg ID: 54196)

WW Oracle @ # 54192 and RossL @ # 54191

You guys are on to something, assuming that the rumor about Greensapans warning has any merit. To me what stands out most is that GS is, AT LEAST ONE, of the bullion movers that has been guaranteed enough physical at a decent price to be able to cover, therefore no risk in selling into this market to control the burn until the time appointed. We shall see what happens after May, if this truely be the deadline for covering.

This not the "Big One" until we see Gold above $999.00

Very respectfully,

HBM

WW Oracle

(05/21/2001; 07:55:12 MDT - Msg ID: 54197)

@HBM: We can't jump to conclusions, either...

GS might be selling for some other reason. Barrick recently sold gold forward -- to whom? If Goldman Sachs, the temptation to take a short-term profit on the trade would probably be irresistable.

jinx44

(05/21/2001; 08:04:39 MDT - Msg ID: 54198)

Politically Correct Beer---ROCKGRABBER

I think you should apologize to the forum. It should be African-American Modelo. Thank you.

Old Yeller

(05/21/2001; 08:30:59 MDT - Msg ID: 54199)

The golden cynics....

http://csf.colorado.edu/longwaves/2001/msg01207.html
Will say this is just run of the mill profit taking.

SHIFTY

(05/21/2001; 08:32:49 MDT - Msg ID: 54200)

Artie Farkle

Rand / DollarThanks buddy. I found a conversion chart last night then went to bed.

$hifty

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/21/2001; 08:39:11 MDT - Msg ID: 54201)

WW Oracle @ # 54197

Sir you say: "HBM: We can't jump to conclusions, either...
GS might be selling for some other reason. Barrick recently sold gold forward -- to whom? If Goldman Sachs, the temptation to take a short-term profit on the trade would probably be irresistable."

My comment: Yes you are quite right! We are in the dark as always. You will notice that I prefaced my comment with the hypothetical, "If the rumor is true." I should have said that I do not know what I am talking about and that I am only speculating as I am in the dark"
HBM

Carl H

(05/21/2001; 08:46:29 MDT - Msg ID: 54202)

Manipulation still present...

Well, Hong Kong clearly demonstrated that the manipulators are still with us.

I urge everyone to write their congressmen, or better yet, confront them at town meetings in front of their consituants.

If there is enough interest, I would be happy to post or provide a form letter based on GATA's questions to Greenscam and O'Neil.

Cavan Man

(05/21/2001; 08:52:19 MDT - Msg ID: 54203)

POG

Only "massive buying" will break the market apart and set POG free to run. Who has that kind of financial muscle but more importantly, the motivation?

Large ME AU holders are taking the Euro path we've been told. Don't count on a renegade like Mr. Soros to break this market like he broke Sterling.

Some air is being let out of the balloon. We're going up to a new, slightly higher level.

WW Oracle

(05/21/2001; 09:00:45 MDT - Msg ID: 54204)

@Cavan Man: Who has the muscle?

The bond markets do! Gold looks quite good now, compared to the falling long bond....but I think some sovereign debt looks good, too -- at least until the dollar tanks.

@HBM: Sorry, I should have noticed your disclaimer.

CoBra(too)

(05/21/2001; 09:03:33 MDT - Msg ID: 54205)

Lot's of talk of gaps to be filled among the gold bugs -technically.

I would think the only gap that will really matter in the long run is the physical supply deficit gap vs. ever growing demand at these still ridiculous low prices.

@CM - after the WA I recall some talk that GS (as in George Soros) was told to hold off for some time, forgot by whom pro'lly GS.

Enjoying the run and feeling the sentiment change, hope all of you -cb- too

Christopher

(05/21/2001; 09:14:52 MDT - Msg ID: 54206)

Lehman analyst has the answers-says gold stock prices"irrational"

http://quicken.excite.com/investments/news/cbsmw/notemplates/frame.dcg?symbol=NEM&ntlink=/relocate/co=quotes_cbs;http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/intuit/pulseone.asp?siteid=intuit&dist=intuit&dateid=37032.4576388889-779518946&779518946Looks like one of the big boys is trying to talk us down off the ledge. Sure glad I caught his article, or I might have done something stupid...like buy more Gold.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH.

But in all seriousness, I bet had I not invested @two years of my time here at this center for higher education, I probably would have believed what he had to say out of hand myself.

Thank you Gentlemen and Gentle-ladies.

Christopher

beesting

(05/21/2001; 09:31:49 MDT - Msg ID: 54207)

QUESTION @ ALL!

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html The Kitco POG chart shows little price change in about the last hour, $291.35.??

My question is:

If something happens in the near future at LBMA/Comex where a POG is not accurate or only represents "PAPER GOLD" not physical Gold, and the condition lasts for a while, ""IS THERE AN ALTERNATE RELIABLE WAY TO GET AN ACCURATE Price Of Gold,(FOR PHYSICAL GOLD ONLY), over the internet?????

Thank You In Advance.....beesting.

Carl H

(05/21/2001; 09:34:48 MDT - Msg ID: 54208)

Gold price graph on Kitco -- Looks weird.

Note that the price went absolutely flat and then colapsed. Very weird.

Journeyman

(05/21/2001; 09:37:42 MDT - Msg ID: 54209)

What was that? @Galdalph

According to Kitco, gold just dropped straight down $6.50 cents from $291.35 to $284.85.

What was that? Kitco glitch or GS paper?

Regards,
J.

JMB

(05/21/2001; 09:38:07 MDT - Msg ID: 54210)

Let me give you some good news.

It won't be long until we'll have easy access to kitco's charts. You gotta look at the bright side.

bob leppo

(05/21/2001; 09:45:01 MDT - Msg ID: 54211)

the two 'G's'

when Jay Gould (no not one of my two 'G's) tried to push the price of gold up after the Civil War he was doing fine until the President- Grant- found out about it and made it clear that the US government would NOT help the speculators and might well use the high price to sell some of the government's gold- the corner was broken.

Now here we have Mr Greenspan who in the past publicly stated that the US would lease gold if the price went up from suppressed levels. I think the corollary is clear. Greenspan can no longer afford politically to help the speculators hold down the price of gold anymore than Grant could afford to help them hold it up in his day. When Greenspan next testifies in Congress if he knows that he will be questioned about whether selling or leasing US gold risks damaging confidence in the dollar he will change his tune.

Orville Goldenbacher

(05/21/2001; 09:47:49 MDT - Msg ID: 54212)

gold chart

http://users.sisna.com/Thairanch/EagleRanch/auf-agf1.htmI think kitco might have been trying to make a few extra $ by flatlining POG before it dropped. here is a differnt chart.

Cavan Man

(05/21/2001; 09:48:18 MDT - Msg ID: 54213)

beesting

If LBMA/COMEX buyers were stepping up to take delivery and it was discovered by these buyers that the cubbards were bare, wouldn't there be a rush to sell the paper? How does that work and how could we keep abreast of a that sort of dynamic? Thanks....CM

canamami

(05/21/2001; 09:49:19 MDT - Msg ID: 54214)

The Gold War Continues

A couple of devastating attacks against the longs last night, and just a few minutes ago. Is this a bluff by those shooting blanks, or has some official sector gold been released into the market, to provide the shorts with ammo?

What prompted or permitted the rise in the POG? Who shut the rally down, and why and how did they do it?

Journeyman

(05/21/2001; 09:52:11 MDT - Msg ID: 54215)

What it was! @Gandolph, ALL

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/990444275790?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=COMEX:GC01M∬erval=10:255&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=0&Study=VOL&Param1=0&Param2=0&Param3=0&FontSize=9
Hi Wiz!

Sorry I garbled your handle in last message - - - must have been the excitement of the match!

Don't know if it was GS paper, but it looks fairly clear that Kitco froze-up for awhile just before the down move and then covered the drop as if it was instantaneous - - - which, according to the link in the header, it wasn't.

Regards,
J.

Cavan Man

(05/21/2001; 09:57:52 MDT - Msg ID: 54216)

canamami

I don't think it is over yet and, I do think all the FOA/TG/Another commentary, as incredible as it is, is right on the mark. Factual analysis is necessary but sometimes one must bridge upon instinct to get over the rainbow.

Cavan Man

(05/21/2001; 10:05:10 MDT - Msg ID: 54217)

It's winner take all.

Bet on 5000 years or bet with the CB crowd in the current global, monetary dynamic; choose wisely.

If we had either a gold standard or the type of "system" for lack of a better word that TG has written about, the bullion banks et al would not be staring "into the abyss" with a rising POG as Sir Edward aptly put it. It's not nice to fool Mother (immutable) Nature...CM

Rockgrabber

(05/21/2001; 10:13:55 MDT - Msg ID: 54218)

A way to make them pay

I am going to hedge myself on this one. I am buying a wide range of put options on the COMEX gold contracts, and I think you should as well. I am long only the physicall medal these days. Lets hit the cabal in the pockets!! All proceeds made on the puts will be converted strait into the real medal. I am too skeptical about the paper market being able to stand up. To participate in an up move, you may want to check into buying deeper in the money calls, and sell the ones at or slightly out of the money. When the volitility is good like today, you can collect alot of time value off of them. Deep in the money options have very little to even no time value. Even in the high leveraged options market, of course leverage is in the highest demand, its paid for up the nose. Anyways if enough people started to buy puts, the cabal would be less happy with results. These stupid mining companies, are hedging by selling calls, rather then buying puts?? I know it provides actuall cash for them to sell calls, and actually costs them to buy puts. Yet if the price was to go up the puts would have been a much more profitable choice. Maybe deep down inside they even feel that this paper market will go nowhere.

(05/21/2001; 10:26:30 MDT - Msg ID: 54219)

Spot Prices

http://www.thebulliondesk.com/...

Novice Bear

(05/21/2001; 10:29:01 MDT - Msg ID: 54220)

Leigh, I can relate to your situation...

Leigh,

Sorry this happened to you...although I can relate.

I posted on another site with my middle name "Lea" (also
pronouced like your name). Then another poster came
on the scene using the name "Lea" posting things which
were really an embarrassment to me because of their
content. I'm a discreet person and this poster obviously
wasn't...

Well I'm a long-time lurker here at USAGold, but have
come out of the shadows to let you know there's another
female goldbug with the name of "Lea" who understands.

Now back to lurking...

Best wishes, Novice Bear (aka "Lea")

JMB

(05/21/2001; 10:46:58 MDT - Msg ID: 54221)

ORVILLE GOLDENBACHER

Sweet chart presentation. Many thanks, Sir.

Orville Goldenbacher

(05/21/2001; 11:01:29 MDT - Msg ID: 54222)

JMB

You are most welcome, Sir.

Peace,

OG

Tree in the Forest

(05/21/2001; 11:07:12 MDT - Msg ID: 54223)

Comex gold, Cavan Man

Cavan Man: You wrote:

Cavan Man(5/21/01; 09:48:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 54213)
beesting

If LBMA/COMEX buyers were stepping up to take delivery and it was discovered by these buyers that the cubbards were bare, wouldn't there be a rush to sell the paper? How does that work and how could we keep abreast of a that sort of dynamic? Thanks....CM

Answer to your first question: YES!
Answer to your second question: I am trying desperately to keep this board abreast of that dynamic!

June gold comex futures open interest up a whopping 5343 contracts today to 72,584. This is one week before first notice day. Specs are usually bailing at this point; instead they're charging in! The discovery "that the cubbards are bare starts when stoppers call for delivery beginning FND. Comex says "no gots" officially on LDD at the end of June, but the rush to sell paper could happen anytime in between.

Tree in the Forest

(05/21/2001; 11:13:56 MDT - Msg ID: 54224)

Comex gold

I should add that first notice day for June gold is May 31, just 10 days away.

IronHead

(05/21/2001; 11:15:40 MDT - Msg ID: 54225)

Rockgrabber - RE: your #54218

Hello Sir Rockgrabber - Your message of post #54218 gave me a surge of Deja Vu, having played the paper chase and found burnt paper (mine) to be good fertilizer for the garden.

My comments are probably scrambled eggs, so don't take me too seriously, as these points are made for the benefit of those less capable in the paper halls than you or I.

You indicated that you *were/are* only long the physical metal these days: Might your purchase of puts, put you *long* naked puts?

Regarding the hedge you see this as: I'm curious against what you are hedging; might it be your physical position that would be sold, to cover the *possible* incorrect paper guess?

That time premium you mentioned, could also turn against us big time, if da boyz decide to suspend the sword of Damocles over our head a little longer than we anticipated, no?

Could not the real hurt to the cabal be by removing as much of their precious physical backing from their grasp, such that the ultimate squeeze (lack of position backing) would hurt them while giving us a zero risk position, that needs no hedge?

Just a few ramblings from another paper bearron who tried to catch a few falling knives more than once. Nice thing about Au is it is pretty dense, stable, and hard to throw around, (such that you don't try so often to throw your back out).

Oh, I'm with you in that I believe at some point we are all going to have to tend our gardens very closely. Food for thought?

Salutations,
IronHead

Rockgrabber

(05/21/2001; 11:24:05 MDT - Msg ID: 54226)

Tree in the Forest

Mr. thank you for having given your perspective about people rushing to sell valueless COMEX paper. That makes super sinse. so plain and simple that there is not enough gold around for everyone to actually own, only with fake gold, paper gold can it appear that there is gold to satisfy everyones needs. They tried to make a medal into a fiat paper market. That will be one enjoyable time period that week when gold is priced all the way to 0. I am not sure how I am going to beable to purchase gold at that price though. Coin shops and all I will assume wont be selling their gold that week at the paper prices. I am going to have to stand on a busy corner that week, with a sigh offering to buy everyones gold for well over the newpapers price(that would look funny) ((people would be thinking what does that guy know)) I get that look from people everytime I go into the coin dealer and walk out with 5 100 once silver bars. What the heck does that guy know? I just smile.

Rockgrabber

(05/21/2001; 11:49:01 MDT - Msg ID: 54227)

Mr. IronHead (my mom calls me that)

I believe that the price on that paper market is going to go to 0 (thanks, tree in forest). Why are they going to be holding something they cant use(paper gold contracts)? That is what I am hedging against. I might beable to pick up more gold then I otherwise would have been able to obtain, by making more fiat to trade for gold. I am sure it wont be public knowledge at first, but some of the boys in the pits will see it coming. There may be enough physical in the coin shop from people selling there gold that week, as its breaking away from its old pricing form. I just think the cabal does not want people to buy puts right now, especially as the price falls and the fiat that is made on it is converted into the "real deal".

How is your garden? I am thinking of starting up a business here in my area. I live on a ranch up in the hills a bit, and just love gardening. With the crap vegetables in the store created from junk they feed them and spray on them. I wish to come in with a crew to folks yards, and set them up an instant garden! Go ORGANIC gardening!! Between researching economy, and gardening my life is feeling nice and full.

Hedging is the wrong term for what I am trying I suppose. I am scared I might loose out on what could have been more physical gold for me if I would have bought the puts. So I am doing so. Yes I could loose out on physical by taking money and buying paper.

Rockgrabber

(05/21/2001; 11:51:56 MDT - Msg ID: 54228)

Paper Gold=Fools Gold

We have a modern day fools gold, and it is in the form of paper.

SteveH

(05/21/2001; 12:18:17 MDT - Msg ID: 54229)

Lease Rates

Unless I don't get it (which is very possible) the lease rates (below) tell a different story than a down gold market from here. In other words, the lease rates tell me gold lending is still scarce and the price will move higher from this 284 level:

May 21, 2001

Bid
Change

1 m
2.2900%
+0.2500

2 m
2.2800%
+0.2600

3 m
2.2262%
+0.2212

6 m
2.2359%
+0.2859

1 y
2.4000%
+0.2700

Correct me if this is incorrect interpretation of the lease rates on gold.

Steve

Al Fulchino

(05/21/2001; 12:22:44 MDT - Msg ID: 54230)

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/politics/whispers/whisphome.htm

Hope u don't mind a lttle levity today..this tidbit is just too funny.

"I think at core, he's an honest person. . . . I think you can be an honest person and lie about any number of things."
Dan Rather,
CBS News anchor, on former President Clinton, during a Fox News interview

IronHead

(05/21/2001; 12:29:56 MDT - Msg ID: 54231)

Rockgrabber - Feed Our Heads, Said The Rabbit To The Mirror

Sir Rockgrabber - Seems I have found another in the mirror of my looking glass; as we share much in common.

Glad you took my comments with a grain of big salt. I too anticipate your predilections towards a falling paper price, and sincerely hope we reverse the fake out rally. Doing some real estate liquidation in anticipation of that domino to fall; I sure would like to see these bottoms penetrated one more time. (Sir Tree: Maybe late August?)

You've touched on a subject I've commented on before: How will most react to the falling "newspaper" price, as we "in the know" {ho ho ho} try to buy the dips, just before uncle fester pulls his rabbit out of the hat and says Au will make your teeth fall out, and thus should be held behind "his" vaults to protect us from ourselves. As Black Blade says: "It's going to get interesting". IronHead says: "Interesting" is also something you say about a painting you don't understand"

I'm with you 100% on the requirement for individuals to feed themselves, family, and friends. Considering the fossil fuel energy required to produce, fertilize, and transport our current over hybridized food resources, we are going to see the concommitant increase in price and availability of most foods. A good friend (Haaavad PHD type), whom is doing research into Mad Cow, has me more than a little "interested" about our recombinant meat eating disposition. We think there is a big gold coverup....Won't go into that, other than to say self sufficency in financial matters carries over to other life sustaining matters too.

Anyways, here's to your real low *price* of gold, and soon, please.

Salutations,
IronHead

TheStranger

(05/21/2001; 12:29:58 MDT - Msg ID: 54232)

Daytripper

Lou Dobbs never mentioned it on Friday night. It didn't make Barron's, either. This morning's Wall Street Journal covered it but only on the commodities page and nowhere else.

Yet, after a long and painful dormancy, the Midas metal has finally broken out.

Yes, there have been phony spikes in the past. But people who have a long acquaintance with gold say this time is different. In October, 1999, the Washington Agreement spurred a euphoria which was over with in a day or two. In March, 2000, the same thing happened when two major producers announced they were swearing off hedging. But this time, almost eerily, there is no cover story. In fact, Leonard Kaplan, the oft-quoted President of Prospector Asset Management, said Friday, "It doesn't quite smell right."

To be sure, it doesn't quite smell right, and some say that is precisely why it smells so good.

This time, it is not some sudden news event driving gold higher. It is, rather, a convergence of market forces which are only understood by a relative few. Even so, they have been building over several years and have been amply described here at the USAGOLD Forum. People with experience at investing will tell you the greatest gains of all are made where the rationale is not immediately obvious. Indeed, it is only when everyone finally understands, that bull markets die.

Many who frequent this forum have waited a long time to cash in on their knowledge. For them, I have just a few words of advice. The gold bear market was long and brutal. No subsequent bull market is going to be over with in sixty days, nor after a gain of only $40. And, just as Cisco and Intel were hopelessly overowned in the last days of the tech bubble, gold mining shares and gold itself are today hopelessly underowned.

There will likely be many price swings in the weeks and months ahead. Many prominent analysts will be slow to get on board. But don't be fooled. Stay in your seat! There will be lines of people waiting to get on the bus at each stop along the way. You must remember, your ticket is good 'til the very end.

Cavan Man

(05/21/2001; 12:41:17 MDT - Msg ID: 54233)

"daytrippin'"

David, that's teriffic (your par). Good to hear from you.

SteveH

(05/21/2001; 12:51:26 MDT - Msg ID: 54234)

Geesh!

Did some gold bull person manage to paint the tape on gold for the day in NY? When was the last time we saw that? (I'll tell you where, the Dow and Duck, just about every day or so it seems.) What goes around...

beesting

(05/21/2001; 12:59:21 MDT - Msg ID: 54235)

From CBS News.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7BCEEC98C0%2D0863%2D4C3A%2DAD39%2DAB6EBA1EC461%7D
[Snippet]
< next level to watch is
$294 an ounce for
the spot-price of the
metal. June futures
contract will be
settled soon, forcing
those who have bet against the metal via
short-sales to cover their positions.

"A close above that level and $338 is the
next target," says Edelson, managing
editor of The Safe Money Report in Florida.
"After that, you're looking at $400, easy>>[End snip]

Click above for full report.....beesting.

WW Oracle

(05/21/2001; 13:10:47 MDT - Msg ID: 54236)

Is it just a coincidence, or -

did gold tank just as Treasuries started to recover?

uponroof

(05/21/2001; 13:13:10 MDT - Msg ID: 54237)

As my friend says....another dot to connect

Out on a limb........ Interesting rumours from the London floor.....

1. The FED is selling gold today.
2. The FED has asked the BoE to sell 100 tonnes to selected banks.

If you fit these into the previous Chapman 'rumour', which is gaining credibility daily, it all makes sense.

Greenman made a mistake thinking he could control the time of rising POG. He then compounded the mistake by ANNOUNCING TO SEVERAL BANKS THEY HAD UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH TO CLEAN UP THEIR HEDGES. The plan leaked out (Chapman/GATA) causing Friday's and last nights spikes.

Greenman had to sell FED gold today to protect the major banks. He must be feeling like the stupid accomplice who is always getting screwed, involving himself with repetitive criminals. To make matters worse, I doubt he consulted with O'Neill prior. You can be sure the ultimatum (given to banks to clean up hedges) included higher orders (from O'Neill) for Greenman to stop selling FED gold. But, not enough time to get everyone in the loop today (as gold was headed for 300) so Greenman had to act decisively.....and out of line.

IMHO the countdown has started. Today's help from the FED a final act of kindness from a pissed off 'nice guy'. Don't look for such favors after the end of the month.

Eva Gabriella

(05/21/2001; 13:21:28 MDT - Msg ID: 54238)

The youngest of the Strad Masters ... at 20 hours in age

http://www.usagold.com/holiday/Eva20hrs.jpgEva says, "I've recently been on a cyber-visit to The Tower, but that place is way too close to the battle lines of the modern monetary wars for any youngster without a full suit of golden armor. So until I learn to walk and become prepared for a return visit, please allow me to reside here, near the warm glow of your hearth's firelight, as I learn what I can from the renowned Discussion RoundTable at this illustrious Castle."

And to the proud Strad Master, Eva says, "Hi, Dad!"

Simply Me

(05/21/2001; 13:58:06 MDT - Msg ID: 54239)

@ Steve H...RE: Paint the tape?

Please, sir, would you provide a brief explanation of the expression "paint the tape" for me. I'm sure there are a number of puzzled lurkers who would appreciate it also.
simply

SteveH

(05/21/2001; 14:08:18 MDT - Msg ID: 54240)

I believe painting tape means

to drive the market up to close up for the day, when it spends most of the day down. This seems to be a common phenomena of the Dow and Duck. If you observe many days on those exchanges, at or around 2:00pm, the markets both tend higher on up days from that time on. Nothing proven, just an observation.

SteveH

(05/21/2001; 14:09:30 MDT - Msg ID: 54241)

Here we go again...

Gold up $3.40 overseas!

SPOT MARKET IS OPEN
closes in 22 hrs. 20 mins.
May 21, 2001 16:11 NY Time
Bid
287.45

Ask
287.95

Change
+3.40

+1.20%

High
294.55

Low
282.55

Simply Me

(05/21/2001; 14:09:56 MDT - Msg ID: 54242)

Eva Gabriella

Welcome, little Eva! Such expressive eyes for one so young! Shine on, golden child.
simply

R Powell

(05/21/2001; 14:25:23 MDT - Msg ID: 54243)

Two fer day

The XAU was up 0.73 points and the lease rates also checked in with a good move higher.
POG settled down $2.00 (june conract). Disappointing after last nights fun but it's not unusual, after a big gain like we saw last Friday, for any market to rest before progressing onward. Hopefully, Spot just needs to catch his breath and it's seriously out of shape.
So we have a two out of three day. IMHO it's more important to see the lease rates rise as opposed to POG because if the rates stay high enough, and if the XAU remains strong, then POG's rise becomes just a question of when, not a question of if. The trade carry must remain in mothballs.
I sense that if the Fed. lowers rates again, no one will be able to stop gold's rise. Will the economy force Greenie to cut them again??
POS was also down $0.027 (july contract). Also resting while sizing up a run to $5.00. I can confirm Stranger's report that the WSJ didn't notice gold's move except for a short commodities page report. There's still time to board the train. How many have noticed gold's move? How many noticed that lumber just barely missed another "limit up" day today??That's four or five in the last two weeks.
Rich

R Powell

(05/21/2001; 14:30:28 MDT - Msg ID: 54244)

Correction

Hopefully, Spot just needs to catch his breath and ISN"T seriously out of shape.
Steve Just reported that Spot is already up and running again. Good boy, Spot!!

Henri

(05/21/2001; 15:23:07 MDT - Msg ID: 54245)

uponroof Msg #54237

I was not aware that the Fed owned any gold. At least they said they didn't in response to GATA questions. Hmmm...I wonder whose gold they ARE selling?

Canuck

(05/21/2001; 16:17:42 MDT - Msg ID: 54246)

uponroof, anyone

Has this been confirmed:

"Greenman made a mistake thinking he could control the time of rising POG. He then compounded the mistake by ANNOUNCING TO SEVERAL BANKS THEY HAD UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH TO CLEAN UP THEIR HEDGES. The plan leaked out (Chapman/GATA) causing Friday's and last nights spikes."

If you have the Chapman statement can you please provide 'link'.

Thanks in advance,

Canuck.

Canuck

(05/21/2001; 16:23:45 MDT - Msg ID: 54247)

Stranger

Long time no chat. How are you? You are very confident.

"There will likely be many price swings in the weeks and months ahead. Many prominent analysts will be slow to get on board. But don't be fooled. Stay in your seat! There will be lines of people waiting to get on the bus at each stop along the way. You must remember, your ticket is good 'til the very end."

I'm nervous to stay in, and I'm scared sh*tless to get out. My gut says to stay in. Thanks for your words, they carry weight my friend.

TheStranger

(05/21/2001; 16:24:04 MDT - Msg ID: 54248)

Cavan Man

Thanks, Cavan Man. And the same to you, too. Amazing how much fun owning gold can be, isn't it?

Cheers!

uponroof

(05/21/2001; 16:36:04 MDT - Msg ID: 54249)

rumours are rumours

Henri, Canuck, electricmanThis one from the London floor involves folks who have been correct before regarding unknown lease rates.

I am speculating on the rest. There is no confirmation, only
speculation. Let's see if GATA/LeMet has any insight on todays action, tonight in the mail.

all:C-SPAN will have Paul O'Neill as a guest on 'Washington Journal' Wed. 7AM-8AM est. Suggest we all try to get through on the phone to ask Mr. O'Neill a question.....
Frinstance...."Mr. O'Neill, does your unofficial weak dollar policy, designed to help domestic manufacturers through increased trade, include setting gold free? I understand Mr Greenspan warned major banks to clean up their gold hedges before the end of this month. Can we now expect gold to behave in a normal manner?"

Or any such probing question designed to put him on the spot.

electricman-please ask the folks at GE to call C-SPAN also. btw-my absense from there is not my choosing. I am guilty of promoting GATA and LeMet too much, so I was dismissed.

GO GATA GO GOLD!

TheStranger

(05/21/2001; 16:50:24 MDT - Msg ID: 54250)

Mixing Metaphors Again

Thanks, Canuck

I am fine, and I hope you are, too.

Yes, I am confident.

From last night's high to this morning's low, gold must have lost $15.00 or so. A decline like that last week would have sent the XAU into a tailspin. It didn't today. In fact, the XAU closed UP for the day. That tells you there are investors lined up to buy on any weakness. And why not? Practically nobody owns this stuff.

If the XAU can stay out of the tank on days like today, you can bet it will be leading bullion higher in the weeks to come. Right now, gold has to break the $300 barrier. It is unlikely to do that without letting a few people off the bus first. That is what was happening today. So far, at least, everyone who got off was replaced by a new rider getting on. With the added publicity of recent days, I believe there are now far more waiting to get on than off.

I also think it pays to remember that the Fed and the other important central banks are all VERY MUCH on our side at this point. All of the recent money creation we have been seeing is part of an intentional effort to reflate the world economy and stave off global recession. A healthy rise in gold prices is the most obvious signal they can hope for to show that the effort is working. Believe me, if this were not so, lease rates would not be where they are, and it is lease rates that got this rally started.

No, if I were you, I wouldn't do years of homework and then settle for a paltry gain like the one we've had so far. I came to hit home runs, and I hope you did, too.

Cavan Man

(05/21/2001; 16:55:02 MDT - Msg ID: 54251)

the Stranger

History being made; that's what we've got.

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/21/2001; 17:04:04 MDT - Msg ID: 54252)

TheStranger @ # 54232

Sir, you say:

Sir, you say:

"But people who have a long acquaintance with gold say this time is different."

I am sure that I speak for many on this forum. It is good to hear such encouraging words from a man of your caliber. We are all hoping that the fundamental differences in this breakout and those of the past are cause for more than just wishful thinking. Your comments have lifted our hopes to another level: - from that of "wishful thinking" to that of, "probable reality".

Very respectfully,

HBM

CoBra(too)

(05/21/2001; 17:17:07 MDT - Msg ID: 54253)

(No Subject)

... After hours I see Spot reverting
to the level of breakout
and not hurting
any TA, without,
converting
to disconcerting
cacaphonies,
de-crying Kontratieff,
and all - cycles-epedimies.

All oscillators, perpetrators,
usurpators, fibonaccionators
and any other gators
in Miami, where I'd like to be
and the rest of the spree of the
technical (investment-) industry
- please feel free to see ...
the total Idiocy!

There is a distinct CHANGE
in the gold industreee...
though, we know
you won't be slow to see
the degree
overwhelming thee
and re-arranging
your pedigree -
to sophisticy ...

(bad ending, due to short circuity!- Sport.).

See u too - cb2

SteveH

(05/21/2001; 17:31:01 MDT - Msg ID: 54254)

So, let's find out who Refco is and what Mr. Steel does

He was on Lou Dobb's Moneyline (so that is what happened to Willow Bay and Stuart Varney) and said that gold has a limited upside because as the price rose it would cause CB selling and producer selling. Let's find out what this man has an objective for only telling the Moneyline folks only half the story.

SteveH

(05/21/2001; 17:37:20 MDT - Msg ID: 54255)

So, let's find out who Refco is and what Mr. Steel does

Refco is a leading global financial services firm, providing a broad range of products and services to a substantial and diversified client base that includes financial institutions, corporations, governments, pension funds, hedge funds, mutual funds and individual investors. We are committed to developing long-term relationships with our clients by providing quality services and global access to a broad range of financial products. Refco's client-driven strategy provides the foundation for meeting the specific investment needs and objectives of our clients. We focus on providing integrated global trading solutions for clients by employing the latest technological advances in products and services.

The Refco OTC Derivative team is extremely responsive to the highly specific product requirements of Refco's broad and diverse global client base. We specialize in custom designing solutions for clients through a highly flexible problem-solving approach. The markets covered include foreign exchange, equity indexes, interest rates, base metals, precious metals, energy and agricultural commodities. The products that are structured for clients are dependent on a number of factors, such as the amount and timing of cash flows, maturity and expiration dates, exposure to interest rates, credit, prepayment, valuation and exchange rate risk.
As a leading provider of exchange-traded derivatives in all global sectors, the highly sophisticated scope of Refco's derivative product expertise remains at the leading edge of product development. In addition to exchange-traded derivatives, the range of instruments includes forwards, options, swaps, caps, ceilings, floors and collars. Refco provides a full range of derivative products across a broad range of markets specifically tailored to the requirements of traders, fund managers, corporate clients and leading institutional clients in financial, agriculture, metals and energy.

Refco is an acknowledged industry leader in execution and clearing services for global exchange- traded derivatives. Its integrated and innovative use of technology provides clients with the ability to trade both electronic and open outcry markets. Regardless of which trading platform is preferred, Refco is committed to providing its clients with efficient electronic commerce initiatives.
Refco provides execution and clearing services in all global product sectors, including:
Interest Rates

Equity Indexes

Foreign Currency

Energy
Agriculture

Precious Metals
Non-Precious Metals

Precious Metals
Refco's Precious Metals desk provides both OTC and exchange traded derivatives (COMEX/NYMEX) services in gold, silver, platinum and palladium. These services include spot, forwards and options.�

So, I ask you...would they be interested in seeing gold rise or fall?

R Powell

(05/21/2001; 17:55:54 MDT - Msg ID: 54256)

Canuck

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/chapman052101.html Here's Mr. Chapman's latest offering.
Also, in case you're lurking, thank you Mr. Chapman for this and all the others! Also, thanks to Mr. Kosares for the "News and Views" in today's mail.

TheStranger

(05/21/2001; 18:06:37 MDT - Msg ID: 54257)

Thanks, HBM....

....though you flatter me unneccesarily. Still, I am glad you enjoyed the post. These are good times for us all.

uponroof

(05/21/2001; 18:08:58 MDT - Msg ID: 54258)

Canuck

Not sure if you or anyone missed the original Chapman 'rumour'which was posted early last week by GATA. Perhaps I misunderstood your request for confirmation.

btw-Bob Chapman is a former CIA guy.

"Our intelligence sources have informed us that Alan
Greenspan has given the bullion banks until the end of
May to clear up their hedging and outstanding gold
derivative positions. Evidentially this process has
been going on for some time. Furthermore, Tony Blair will
try to make available, at the upcoming British gold auction, additional gold which will go to banks designated by Alan Greenspan. We were also told that Anglo Gold will sell forward a designated amount of gold to banks also
specified by Alan Greenspan. Our source for this intel
has been very accurate in the past."

This story is developing and growing every day. All indications are that the policy towards gold is changing. Too bad the shorts are apparently getting ample warning to clear out. Justice here in America is the best hard earned money can buy.

sing lion sing!

SteveH

(05/21/2001; 18:20:30 MDT - Msg ID: 54259)

Prudent Bear

http://216.46.231.211/credit.htmThe real estate excesses inherent in the GSE's (Freddy and Fanny) may be a bubble greater than the Stock Market Bubble that seems to be back in earnest at least in the DOW. A derivative fiasco in the making. Read the above link, you will come away with a different perspective of the Fed.

R Powell

(05/21/2001; 18:29:18 MDT - Msg ID: 54260)

Steve H

Refco is also a commodities brokerage. They will fill orders for small or large investers or, invest you money in a mutual fund specializing in commodities.
Many such firms have analysts trying to figure out which commodities are due to rise, fall or trend sideways and then how best to invest to profit from their predictions. I've read a great deal of the so-called best analysts newsletters and forecasts, with "Consensus" weekly newspaper being the most comprehensive. It's the only one I still pay for. A great many of these so-called analysts are trend followers which combined with strong trading discipline can yield profits. However, even when considering those who follow market fundamentals, there aren't many (damn few) who have anywhere near the knowledge of the gold market as this forum along with our neighbors(as a collective) possesses.
The Mr Steele of Refco that you mentioned probably wasn't trying to lie or hid anything. He stated everything he knew of gold or everything someone prompted him to say on short notice. One man's opinion, of course
Rich

R Powell

(05/21/2001; 18:44:16 MDT - Msg ID: 54261)

uponroof

Many of us wondered at the cause of your absense from the G-E discussions. I believe many study here and there. I always look for your name when I'm there and rarely miss anything said here by anyone. Sorry for your loss but I'm glad you're now here! Their loss will be our gain, although, as I'm sure you know, there are many messengers between the two houses of Kosares and Vronsky.
Rich

R Powell

(05/21/2001; 19:00:42 MDT - Msg ID: 54262)

Gold and silver just starting

canamami Concerning your 54149 message, IMHO it's only just begun and can be profitable through stocks, futures, options or physical possession. So long a bear market! The bull has just been born, it's not too late.
Stranger's 54232 (especially the last two paragraphs) explains this beautifully. Please listen and consider. As always, this is not financial advice.
Go GATA. Go Silver!!
Rich

Cavan Man

(05/21/2001; 19:25:12 MDT - Msg ID: 54263)

Canuck

Steady lad!

uponroof

(05/21/2001; 19:27:06 MDT - Msg ID: 54264)

R Powell

Thank you for those very kind words.I did not expect such a warm welcome.

I can tell you that folks at GE lurk here for the deeper meanings in market actions, energy insight, and financial issues. Quite a few legends here have posted quite a few masterpieces.

I must admit this place is intimidating with such deep thinkers in such thick numbers. All of you are incredibly gifted in disecting the markets and related issues.

GE has a 'current news' flavor while USA has a 'root cause' flavor. Both forums are enlightening at different levels. I will try to read more than post, and when I do post, will try to keep it to current issues, not deep water.

I have many friends at GE whom I hope are enjoying this market finally. My best to all of them and to all here who have also endured everything that our corrupt gummint could throw at them. Thanks again to you and all, for the warm welcome and the ongoing education.

We are one army at heart. GO GATA GO GOLD

Cavan Man

(05/21/2001; 19:29:23 MDT - Msg ID: 54265)

SteveH

I'd never buy anything from a company named "refco". This guy sounds like a regular "Tin Man". Wherefore art thou Mr. siding, soffets, fascia and gutters? You're looking in all the wrong places pal.

Black Blade

(05/21/2001; 19:42:58 MDT - Msg ID: 54266)

Refco?

Refco? Didn't he invent the Pocket Fisherman and Mr. Microphone? oops, that was Ronco ;-)

auspec

(05/21/2001; 19:47:19 MDT - Msg ID: 54267)

Just in From Midas

<<<<<<<<
Breaking News On gold......from last week's breakout!!!!!
(dowjonesbubble) May 21, 18:18

The reason gold broke out is pretty simple. On the charts, we got to the 275 level on the futures and a firm called Goldman Sachs tried to sell futures.

In fact, I heard that Goldman was taunting the guys on the floor to try and take the other side of the trade. Their attempt to keep the price from rising was simply denied by A GROUP OF INVESTORS KEPT ANONYMOUS. This cabal of investors took the other side of the trade many times as Goldman continued to sell gold futures contract. By late last week, Goldman continued to sell and buyers overwhelming outweighed all Goldman selling.

Eventually, floor traders became shocked as Goldman could not push the price any lower and that prompted a flurry of short-covering. The rumor has it that Goldman has not unwound all of their short position and they still may attempt to sell futures but so far the "other cabal" has stepped up to the plate and matched Goldman. Again, to repeat, Goldman was taunting traders at 275, almost laughing and mocking those that would try and take the other side. Well, somebody their size took the challenge and fended off the Goldman selling. They were cocky and got it handed to them. Folks, there is a group on your side. They are long gold it seems and their willing to absorb all of Goldman's selling.

This is what I hear happened last week and the scare shorts got when they saw that Goldman could not control the gold futures price. The shorts are now fully aware that the longs mean business. The game may have changed. This is all a rumour but I believe it to be 100% true. Take it for what its worth. Later.

-END-
This is exactly what I think is going on and have alluded to recently. Some very strong hands are taking on The Gold Cartel. Call it what you may, there is VERY BIG MONEY now on the long side of gold and they have perfectly timed their big move to GATA's South African efforts and Reg Howe's lawsuit.

A gold cartel on our side! YES!

MIDAS>>>>>>>>>>>>

auspec-- If I was a large player taking on GS and those they represent as some "book squaring" is taking place, supposedly until the end of May, I would be planning to take posession of physical via these contracts. Great timing, no?

Goldfly

(05/21/2001; 20:04:10 MDT - Msg ID: 54268)

I love rumors....

Especially ones that make some sense.

But this is really almost hoping for too much, isn't it?

And why didn't this Long Cabal step up today?

JMB

(05/21/2001; 20:11:40 MDT - Msg ID: 54269)

UPONROOF

Your #54237 in part. ""Greenman had to sell FED gold today to protect the major banks."

I gotta go with HENRI's #542445 because it's against the law to dishoard without congressional approval, as far as I know the FED doesn't own any gold, and the Chairman ain't that dumb.

Now if you like speculation and you agree with my supposition that the Chairman ain't that dumb, how about this one...The Chairman is a closet gold advocate and has engineered this incredible bubble to bring on a catastrophic hyper-inflation (no problem with the Americans, they don't save anyway) which will lead to massive natural resource shortages and eventually a crash and then back to the gold standard. Huh? What do ya think? Too far out?

Cavan Man

(05/21/2001; 20:14:30 MDT - Msg ID: 54270)

It's a happy anniversary for CM.

On 5-13-99 I made my first small purchase from USAGOLD and have never looked back. For two weeks prior I read the site intensively; literally could not sleep until I boguht some gold. Since that time I have been the very lucky and timely recipient of the knowledge, wisdom, ideas, opinions, philosophies and ideologies of all here. Thank you to all for putting up with me. BTW, sleeping much better despite the golf injury and enjoying the wait.

PS: PH in LA....who loves 'ya baby.......CM

Tannehill

(05/21/2001; 20:17:31 MDT - Msg ID: 54271)

Gold or silver, decisions - decisions, oh my

There has been a lot of talk about silver over the past few days here at USAGold. This talk seems to favor one or the other, how about a little diversity and hold both? Generally, discussions go along about, how silver will ride on the coattails of gold, it will move up more than gold, etc. Has anyone done the numbers lately? Let's take a look. In the past 60 days

silver gold
Low $ 4.29 $255.50

High $ 4.59 $291.25

up by $ 0.30 $ 35.75

Silver is up a measly 7%

While over the same time span gold is up 14%

Silver riding on the coattails of gold and in the end will move up more percentage wise than gold, (maybe).

Buy physical put a geologist to work.

That's all from Tannehill.

Cavan Man

(05/21/2001; 20:18:39 MDT - Msg ID: 54272)

auspec

If I intended to squeeze GS et al, I believe I'd pick the NY market. It's terrible to lose at home :>).

auspec

(05/21/2001; 20:21:07 MDT - Msg ID: 54273)

#54267 Correction

This quote out of tonite's Midas was attributed to USA Gold, but that has to be in error. Maybe GE?

Long Cabal today?? We're not at $275 are we??

Cavan Man

(05/21/2001; 20:38:47 MDT - Msg ID: 54274)

SteveH USAGOLD54259

Mr. Greenspan has no other options. He must feed the "beast". He knows or supects what has been documented here. His best defense is a no holds barred money creation offense. He makes the US economy too big to fail like Donald Trump (when he was on hard times), TWA, Stone or Gaylord Container and many more names too numerous to mention. At dinner tonight he points to the global peril inherent in a US fall from economic grace. His and our trouble is the Euro has been twenty years in the making.

Cavan Man

(05/21/2001; 20:40:57 MDT - Msg ID: 54275)

auspec

That anecdote was posted by dowjonesbubble at GE in the 17:00 hour. I believe his reference was to friday's action. Where was the calvalry today--agree.

uponroof

(05/21/2001; 20:51:17 MDT - Msg ID: 54276)

JMB

My speculation based on a rumour ......from someone who has been right before regarding unknown lease rates.

However, I also wondered, then realized nothing is impossible when the best lawyers, all the money in the world can buy, are on your side. Read tonight's MIDAS and you'll see that the end of May is critical. Perhaps Greenman is working with some sort of ESF exemption. I don't know.

Here is part of the London message:

"....Hearing NY FED seen 'lending gold' (read selling), Gold.. No sizes mentioned...."

Lending? - Selling? You say too-may-toe, I say too-mah-toe.

btw-didn't GS move their PM group to London last month for more punch?

aunuggets

(05/21/2001; 20:55:06 MDT - Msg ID: 54277)

YeoowZaaaaa !

http://albums.photopoint.com/j/View?u=1503448&a=11347429&p=48927228&Sequence=0&res=highHere's an old photo that I thought some of you might appreciate. Silver or Gold..... or Gold or Silver. Never guess which way I'm leaning these days......

beesting

(05/21/2001; 20:57:53 MDT - Msg ID: 54278)

Here We Go Again!

http://www.quoteline.com/irtmecoe.asp Quoteline ,URL above, just posted Gold at $291.20 up $6.25 since 6:00PM Eastern Time. Don't know if it's right? Stay tuned.....beesting.

aunuggets

(05/21/2001; 21:04:35 MDT - Msg ID: 54279)

Beesting

Kitco and BullionDesk both showing AU bids in the 283 range on current boards.....

JMB

(05/21/2001; 21:09:21 MDT - Msg ID: 54280)

UPONROOF

LENDING...now that's a different kettle of fish. I do believe they could get away with that, or at least they'd try. The SWAP expose' that Reg's friend made (I'm sorry I've forgotten the gentleman's name because it was an historic discovery) proves that the FED, or more likely the ESF, will circumvent the dishoarding laws. If it's the ESF, then President Bush is involved. I sure hope you're wrong...I kinda like W.

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/21/2001; 21:14:05 MDT - Msg ID: 54281)

beesting @ # 54278

I think Sir beesting may be right. Quoteline has backed down to $290.95. That is a good sign that the action over in Europe is hopping and that Kitco is lagging just a bit.

Respectfully,

HBM

MO VER MEG

(05/21/2001; 21:17:43 MDT - Msg ID: 54282)

Black Blade

Thanks for responding to my inquiry. It looks like we will not meet this time - maybe some other day.

I have been inquiring about the purchase of coal to heat (back up) my home - I am considering buying a rail car load or at least a semi load of coal from the Sheridan - Gillette region. Coal makes the most sense of any alternative energy I can think of using.

I have been given the name "Keywood Mining" to check out. By chance, do you know of any company/contact in the coal business out there that I might talk to? Most companies do not want to mess with a little order, but I believe it is a sound idea and worth pursuing.

When California takes South Dakota's natural gas, I will be ready. Where else are they going to get it, if not from other smaller states?

Thanks,

MO VER MEG

beesting

(05/21/2001; 21:18:16 MDT - Msg ID: 54283)

Aunuggets

http://www.quoteline.com/irtmecoe.asp Quoteline is located in Germany I think, usually their price is slightly above Kitcos, don't know who to believe...Are they just teasing us???....OORRR has there been a separation in the world pricing mechanism??? We Watch Together......beesting.

uponroof

(05/21/2001; 21:19:42 MDT - Msg ID: 54284)

Saville's Latest...'Gold - A Major Trend Change'

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/milhouse052301.htmlNot sure which mines are gonna perform best? Institutionals in NA according to Saville. They will lead the first wave.

"...At this stage we are not considering taking any profits as we are likely still in the early stages of the move. As they usually do the North American gold stocks have led this gold rally, with the South African gold stocks trailing and the Australian gold stocks running a distant third...."

Just to be sure, let's do the math when gold is at 350.... I'll take DROOY.

g'nite

Gandalf the White

(05/21/2001; 21:35:49 MDT - Msg ID: 54285)

Let us talk about the SUPPORTERS !

In response to a couple of posts thinking that Friday was a flash in the pan from SUPPORTERS, think about the game now being reversed on the CABAL!! SITTING back and sucking up everything that GS can throw at the PAPER gold market. It appears that indeed there are new "MONEY" supporters that are not afraid to take on the "BIG BAD WOLF" Goldie Sacks !! When GS yells the challenge "SOLD -- COME ON" to every bid, and THEN "someone" takes them up on it, that shows GUTS. Do please notice that Monday in NY the volume on COMEX was triple the last few days and the price did not drop over $2 from the Friday close. ALSO note that the DUMP of PAPER was done in HK rather than in NY to STOP the Gold PAPER price from breaking into the $300 level. The Hobbits think that the maybe FOA has "caught" a lot of SUPPORT from "FISH" !! Deep pocketed FISH !! Things are indeed looking "interesting". JOIN the parade, buy PHYSICAL.
<;-)

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/21/2001; 21:41:42 MDT - Msg ID: 54286)

Quoteline and Kitco

Quotline and Kitco now lined up at about $285.00

HBM

Horatio

(05/21/2001; 22:35:18 MDT - Msg ID: 54287)

Goldman

COME'ON GOLDMAN,"YOU WANT A PIECE OF ME? he he

Carl H

(05/21/2001; 22:41:30 MDT - Msg ID: 54288)

Memory Check...

I am hoping someone may have a better memory than I -- I seem to recall that Buffett bought his silver hoard through Refco. Does anyone else recall this factoid?

I also noticed that over on LeMet Refco was cited as one of the big buyers on friday. I am wondering if it is too big of a leap to put these pieces of information together?

Just as a reality check, at $275/oz, 100 tons of gold would cost about $880Million. Looks to me like Berkshire could probably absorb several hundred tons with no difficulty at all.

aunuggets

(05/21/2001; 22:42:32 MDT - Msg ID: 54289)

Hill Billy Mitchell

Looks as if you were right about the "time lag" between Germany and Kitco Links. Kitco seems to be a little sluggish with all the hit volume the past few nights..... (grin)

Notice you hail from Branson, is that correct ? I'm just a ways southwest near Fayetteville.

SHIFTY

(05/21/2001; 22:42:59 MDT - Msg ID: 54290)

Horatio

Goldman PostI like it !

Has a nice ring to it!

$hifty

aunuggets

(05/21/2001; 22:51:04 MDT - Msg ID: 54291)

Boing, Boing, Boing......

This market is beginning to remind me of a combination of "Pong" and "Pac Man" ...... GET UR HANDS OFF DEM PADDLES !!

US_Army(RET)

(05/21/2001; 22:52:09 MDT - Msg ID: 54292)

Thanks for photo - "aunuggets"

http://albums.photopoint.com/j/View?u=1503448&a=11347429&p=48927228&Sequence=0&res=highMakes a great Wallpaper...!!! --- My my "pile" resemble one day. "InSha'allah" (Arabic - "God Willing")

aunuggets

(05/21/2001; 22:59:57 MDT - Msg ID: 54293)

US_Army(RET)

You're very welcome. The old original was a black and white, so had to do a little "colorizing" in photoshop. (Think I'd settle for just one bar......)

Black Blade

(05/21/2001; 23:00:30 MDT - Msg ID: 54294)

MO VER MEG - Coal

MO VER MEG

I remember many years ago when my Grandparents would store a couple of truck loads of coal for winter use in the old wood stoves. The coal would keep the old house quite warm all through the winter. There used to be local coal yards in most every town back then. I doubt that any major company would be interested in selling small amounts of coal to the public. I had chopped my own wood for winter use and very rarely needed to use any propane to keep my old place in Nevada warm. Coal should be even better as it has a higher output of heat energy. I would think that you should have no problem finding a coal dealer in South Dakota. I don't know much about Keywood Mining, though Peabody Coal and Arch Coal are fairly big coal mining concerns in this part of the US. At least with coal you won't have to worry about heat when the power goes out. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Gandalf the White

(05/21/2001; 23:05:35 MDT - Msg ID: 54295)

aunuggets (msg#: 54277)

http://albums.photopoint.com/j/View?u=1503448&a=11347429&p=48927228&Sequence=0&res=highAnd who might be that "Ghost" of a MAN in the background !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(05/21/2001; 23:15:34 MDT - Msg ID: 54296)

The SUPPORTERS are still HERE !

The size of the BIDS is large and the COMEX volume active as the GS and "friends" continue to sell, sell and sell ! Over 200 contracts were sold in the last 20 minutes and hardly knocked down the June Contract price $0.2
<;-)

Black Blade

(05/21/2001; 23:17:36 MDT - Msg ID: 54297)

Investors race for 'safe haven' gold - China Selling USD and Buying Gold?

http://money.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;$sessionid$T2Y0BJYAAAHOVQFIQMGCFFWAVCBQUIV0?xml=/money/2001/05/22/cngold22.xml

Snippit:

THE price of gold leapt 7pc yesterday - its biggest rise for nearly two years - as the precious metal dramatically rediscovered its traditional status as a safe haven from inflation and other uncertainties. Worries have suddenly emerged that the recent aggressive interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve could have gone too far. There are also rumours that the Bank of China is converting its dollar holdings into gold as a result of worsening relations with America. Fears over inflation gained ground during the day as the price of oil jumped perilously close to the $30 a barrel mark amid heightened tensions in the Middle East. The benchmark Brent oil contract on London's International Petroleum Exchange rose 29 cents to trade as high as $29.68 a barrel.

Black Blade: Point is that gold serves as portfolio insurance and a hedge against economic uncertainty. Gold reacted as it should. Note the rumor that China is converting dollar instruments into gold. Remember the deal that China made with Harmony Gold to by a few tons of the barbarous relic? Looks as if there may be more gold buying perhaps, and the dishoarding of the US Dollar for gold may be already begun.

Black Blade

(05/21/2001; 23:30:21 MDT - Msg ID: 54298)

Price of Gold Rockets on Fears of Inflation

http://www.iht.com/articles/20573.htm
Snippit:

LONDON Gold posted its biggest gain in 20 months Monday amid concerns that interest-rate cuts in the United States could spur inflation. The rally got its start Friday, after a report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed that speculators bought more gold than they sold in futures contracts for the first time in 10 months. Also, the cost of borrowing gold has doubled since January, another sign of increased demand. "You are not in a bear market anymore," said Graham Birch, who manages Mercury World Mining Trust in London. "Rates on gold are up, while rates on other cash have gone down."

Black Blade: A series of Fed rate cuts while the Fed with their accomplice the BLS try to hide inflation from the prying eyes of the public with phoney baloney voodoo statistics (hedonic pricing and "seasonality" for example), and the higher rates of gold leases that put the kabosh on the Gold carry trade, will lead to a sustained higher POG. Ya can almost smell the blood.

Mr Gresham

(05/21/2001; 23:40:45 MDT - Msg ID: 54299)

Volatility

I guess one thing you could say for sure is that now we have Volatility, after an amazing period of intense near-flatlining. And volatility is the opposite of Control. Somebody has lost control; can they get it back? It's worth a bet they can't...

Black Blade

(05/21/2001; 23:43:28 MDT - Msg ID: 54300)

Better to Be Kept in the Dark?

http://more.abcnews.go.com/sections/us/dailynews/cal_power010521.html
Critics Find Fault With Calif. Plan to Offer Blackout Forecasts

Snippit:

Assemblyman Fred Keeley acknowledged that scheduling blackouts could attract criminals to outage areas and possibly subject the state to legal liability for traffic accidents or other incidents if power is deliberately shut off.

Black Blade: The major cities in California are hot beds of crime, but criminals need to eat too, so this provides a great opportunity as only the state of California can provide. A few planned blackouts in known areas where criminals know that burglar alarms and lights are off. Good idea. What next? Free burglar kits for the aspiring burglar as part of a state of California jobs training program?

Horatio

(05/21/2001; 23:52:55 MDT - Msg ID: 54301)

Coal Black Blade

Must issue word of caution,burning coal in a wood stove is not a good idea.I.m old enough to remember people dieing from improperly venting .Coal give off deadly gas when burned especially "soft coal".

elevator guy

(05/21/2001; 23:56:27 MDT - Msg ID: 54302)

Paybacks a b*tch

Does anyone remember that bankster cronie who boasted gleefully about taking on the longs one day, and said something like "We really gouged their eyes out" (?) What a smug sumb*tch!

God, it has to be time for the true blue died-in-the-wool gold bugs and PGAs to gouge out the eyes of the shorts, eh?

Before you get your Irish up, watch the moves of AG, GS. Watch for dollar dis-hoarding in exchange for physical. Watch the dollar/bond/slot markets, for these hold the game together. Watch for the Mid-East to rally against Israel. When they really make a break, they will not cow-tow to the US, and sell us oil cheap anymore. Listen to the trades from those on the floor, watch the volume, and when you see the whites of their eyes, shoot.

Black Blade

(05/22/2001; 00:08:32 MDT - Msg ID: 54303)

Energy Crisis

http://199.97.97.163/IMDS%PMANAT0%read%/home/content/users/imds/feeds/knoxvillens/2001/05/21/eng-knoxvillens/eng-knoxvillens_011922_114_010939823929Snippit

President Bush is taking hits on his newly announced energy policy, not so much because he has neglected conservation or renewable fuels -- proposals on those topics are included -- but because he aims to remove unreasonable government impediments to the production of the chief sources of this nation's energy. California, in a sense, has done us all a service. It has shown what a steep price must be paid if you virtually forbid the expansion or construction of power plants, and it has shown that emphasis on conservation and alternative fuels is not enough to compensate. The officeholders there acted partly, of course, to protect the environment, and the charge against Bush is that he is insufficiently sensitive to the destruction his proposals could cause.

Black Blade: California leads by example. They show us what not to do. Unfortunately for the rest of the US, we will likely have to foot the bill for their incompetence with higher prices for goods and services as the overall economy begins to crumble. With gold pulling back, we might still have time to construct Golden Lifeboats.
View Yesterday's Discussion.

Black Blade

(05/22/2001; 00:18:53 MDT - Msg ID: 54304)

Horatio - Coal

I don't recall any problems with coal in wod stoves or in fire places. I do know that there have been deaths where people have tried to use charcoal in hibachis while indoors. If one burns coal in a woodstove or fireplace, one should be sure that the flue is open. If it isn't open, the smoke filling the room would be the first clue. I remember other family members who would burn coal in their fireplaces during winter for heat. The last time I remember family using coal was about 20 years ago when my parents used coal in their old cast iron stove for heat and cooking. My father was quite the cook with dutch oven cookware on an the flat surface of that old stove. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/22/2001; 00:47:35 MDT - Msg ID: 54305)

Economist: Dollars key to rescuing world economy

http://www.naplesdailynews.com/today/local/a129234b.htm
Snippits:

Economist Lawrence Kudlow says he has the solution to the entire world's economic problems - dollarization. "My point is a simple one," Kudlow told about 200 members of the Naples Council on World Affairs at their annual meeting on Monday. "The dollar is the only stable currency. Period." Kudlow, a regular commentator for CNBC and a columnist for Bloomberg News, is chief economist and senior vice president of American Skandia Marketing Inc., in Shelton, Conn. For 40 minutes, Kudlow hammered his contention that the entire planet adopt U.S. currency, which he claims would significantly reduce the impact of the International Monetary Fund.

Because of this, Kudlow says it is up to the United States to keep the dollar sound. He gave high marks to Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan because of Greenspan's belief in the gold standard and in free markets. He said Greenspan and others like him have finally put two and two together, that "zero inflation seems to be associated with the current gold price," which has remained fairly stable in recent years.

Black Blade: Larry Kudlow says to dollarize the world. "Interesting times."

Golden Dreams All!

SteveH

(05/22/2001; 02:23:43 MDT - Msg ID: 54306)

snippet

www.kitco.comInteresting:

Date: Tue May 22 2001 01:46
mozel (@Inexplicables & Clues) ID#357270:
Copyright � 2000 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
When the Red Chinese Government purchased 167 tons of gold, I asked, "What do communists need gold for ?"
When it was announced that the little people of China would soon be able to buy and own gold legally, I asked, "Why is this ?"

Now, I realize that the average Chinaman has very little disposable legal tender paper, but, nevertheless, a billion is a large number and if only ten million of them have gold hunger and funds to feed it, that is going to more than make up for the dwindling in numbers of the Western gold bug breed.

It would be poor statecraft for a state to roil the gold market. It would amount to interference in the sovereign relationship between the $US dollar, the SDR, and gold. That's why China arranged to purchase 167 tons from the RBA without a "market" ripple. But, if your people roil the market with their purchases, the State cannot be blamed.

I still have no answers to my questions. But, lack of explanation does not depreciate the basic fact that these acts were done either from necessity or because of other self-interest. The same observation holds for the United States Government's change in policy regarding the private ownership of gold. But, the self-interest of one government need not coincide with that of any other.

I hold to my view that the recent price action in gold was due to a speculative surprise attack. There are loops and then there are loops. Obviously, Mr. Kaplan is not in the loop that surprised. But, he has, since, put his credibility on the line in the WSJ with an opinion that gold is in a secular bull market. So, maybe, his loop is now in the loop.

Regarding Silver, Oil, and Natural Gas, the keywords, I think, are Citibank and Mexico. What would dollarization in Mexico do there ?

SteveH

(05/22/2001; 02:26:51 MDT - Msg ID: 54307)

Kudlow

BB,

He knows he has the ear of Wallstreet. I think he is experimenting with opinions that don't speak to the whole picture or he is being handled to some degree. I have heard him say that gold is an inflation indicator and it indicates no inflation. Now he is saying this about the dollar and the IMF. He is plugged in some place but a grain of salt is in order, got one?

SteveH

(05/22/2001; 02:30:13 MDT - Msg ID: 54308)

snippet

www.kitco.comDate: Tue May 22 2001 01:41
cjk (Investors race for 'safe haven' gold) ID#277212:
Worries have suddenly emerged that the recent aggressive interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve could have gone too far. There are also rumours that the Bank of China is converting its dollar holdings into gold as a result of worsening relations with America.

http://money.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;$sessionid$T3HFZ0AAAAHKJQFIQMGSFFWAVCBQWIV0?xml=/money/2001/05/22/cngold22.xml

SteveH

(05/22/2001; 02:38:30 MDT - Msg ID: 54309)

Looks like gold is consolidating at this level

The monthly chart looks awesome from a technical perspective.

working-kirk

(05/22/2001; 03:14:46 MDT - Msg ID: 54310)

Better to Be Kept in the Dark?

http://more.abcnews.go.com/sections/us/dailynews/cal_power010521.htmlBlack Blade, it is not a matter of criminals having to eat but more of Professional Courtesy. Politicians are one class of criminals who steal for a living so they must help out their poorer less sucessful crooks. (why do I have this image of Al Bundy saying "Sorry Peg, no time for sex. I have to go looting!")

Beside, once everything get stolen that's not nailed down, it will give the politicians an excuse to grab more power by robbing us of more of our liberties. No, unlike the energy crisis, by announcing and schedling blackouts the politicians know exactly what what they are doing. Never mind gold. Have you got the second amendment THe right to bear arms. NO!

Well, I was thinking if the writer's strike doesn't happen I might move to California and try becoming a script writer but I think I will hold off on that plan. I could write some great comedy about grasshoppers.

> Assemblyman Fred Keeley acknowledged that scheduling
> blackouts could attract criminals to outage areas

> Black Blade: The major cities in California are hot beds
> of crime, but criminals need to eat too,

> What next? Free burglar kits for the aspiring burglar as > part of a state of California jobs training program?

Why not? If they give free needles to addicts, It is only fair to give burglar kits to robbers. After all its society fault they're crook so why not give them a helping hand

Netking

(05/22/2001; 03:54:48 MDT - Msg ID: 54311)

Gold - China connection

Peter Hambro, chief executive of Peter Hambro Mining and an experienced hand in the gold market, said he first noticed big signs of excitement at a conference organised by the World Gold Council last Friday. This caused traders in Asia, where markets were open over the weekend, to drive the price up by more that $22 to $296.

He (Peter)said there are also strong rumours that the Bank of China has become a big buyer of gold. It holds $130 billion (�92 billion) of foreign exchange reserves and as relations with the US deteriorate it is switching them out of dollars into gold.(Ouch!)

"I suppose they don't want their reserves managed by the central banker of the enemy, Alan Greenspan," he said.

Another source of gold buying is said to be the introduction of euro notes and coins on the Continent. "All those five hundred franc notes under mattresses will soon be worthless," said Mr Hambro

Canuck

(05/22/2001; 03:57:18 MDT - Msg ID: 54312)

uponroof, R.Powell

Thanks for the info. and the 'link'.

Not to sound pessimistic but I am getting a little bent out of shape with the 'rumours'. I understand the massive secretive mission that these monstrous conglomerates are playing and it would be absurd for one of them to stand in front of a television crew and admit that they are a bunch of crooks but WOULDN'T IT BE NICE!

Greenspan rumour #1 many moons ago circled around the notion that the 'shorts' had 6 months to cover. That, if I recollect was nearly a year ago and did that happen? Rumour #2 has the 'shorts' to unwind in a couple weeks.

Who is the big 'bank' squaring against Goldman Sachs?

Is the SNB selling their gold thru the BIS or are they not?
What does this mean?

When does Mr. Howe's court case proceed? When is this 'discovery' issue resolved?

Why is the GD sky blue?

Watching the POG inch thru the 260's, race thru the 270's and then blast thru the 280's was breathtaking. Sunday nights blast in Australia to 298.55 was awesome, I was giggling like a 10 year old kid. Now these clowns have it wittled down to 283; I'm cranky. My beagle had a faceful of porcupine quills this week-end at the cottage and if we break 280 today I will be uglier than he was.

This is my 'ugly' post of the day, I will get a coffee, shake my head and post a 'happy' note.

Let's hope for a bounce.

Netking

(05/22/2001; 04:00:20 MDT - Msg ID: 54313)

Silver - On the verge of rationing?

***Are we on the verge of severe silver rationing***(Sourced from Ted Butler)
All the silver from the time of the Pharaohs, the Romans, Marco Polo, and the Conquistadors is gone. We mined billions of ounces of silver throughout history. Fifty years ago the US Government owned the world's largest stockpile of silver, more than three billion ounces. But look around. There is no one who can document much more than 100 million ounces of silver bullion left (all on the COMEX), after thousands of years of continuous production. Where did all the silver go? Industrial consumption and photography. Gold, on the other hand is still with us. We can document it and verify it. But not silver. Silver has been running a continuous current production and consumption deficit for more than 50 years. How could such a crazy situation occur? Or more precisely, how could the world find itself having used up 5000 years of continuous production in just 50 years? It was overwhelming industrial demand. That's why we are on the verge of severe rationing. But how can the price still be at 5000-year inflation adjusted lows? The answer is simple - the silver market has been rigged.

nickel62

(05/22/2001; 04:08:07 MDT - Msg ID: 54314)

Just for information.....friends and clients now interested in adding gold to their portfolios for the first time.

As an investment advisor I have often expressed my opinion of the merits of gold and gold stock investments to my clients and friends. This month (even before the move in the price of gold over the weekend) was the first time I had had people want to buy actual physical gold for their first time. I had not solicited any action on their part or even broached the subject and out of the blue several of them decided they wanted to know how to buy some physical. Something is changing out there.

Canuck

(05/22/2001; 04:09:31 MDT - Msg ID: 54315)

Stranger, Cavan Man

Thanks for the encouragement.

I still hold the belief that every $100 increase in the POG will double my stock. I am cheering on NEM for you Stranger and wide-eyed for Franco on my front. I bailed on Kinross at 95 cents and if I could kick my ass I would.

On the physical side, I buried the gold up at the cottage last year (along with a few pounds of nails) and am pounding the silver into the safety deposit box.

Have a good day.

Topaz

(05/22/2001; 04:14:00 MDT - Msg ID: 54316)

...for Lease rate watchers.

The long rate (as per CPM's link above) has moved to 2.49% - the second highest rate this year, beaten only on Mar 9.
The difference being the short rate THEN was 6% ish.
Let's see what today brings.

Canuck

(05/22/2001; 04:43:41 MDT - Msg ID: 54317)

From another site

"FOA/TG often sees his awareness as being more obvious to the reader than what really occurs. The essence of the potential collapse of mining shares is based on the fact of the ore in the ground being an asset of the corporation, whereas the stock shares are a liability to the share holders. If the mining corporation fails from debt or hedge position foreclosure, or any other form of bankruptcy, the asset of the in ground ore belongs to the senior creditors. I don't believe the consideration of a dollar collapse was laid out as a direct cause of the shares being worthless. I believe he sees the dollar crash as one of several concurrent events that would see the mines unable to maintain solvency in his "Burning of Paper Gold" scenario. An unhedged mine with sufficient debt service liquidity should survive a Paper Gold collapse and reap huge profits delivering physical, IMO.

The "Burn" is simply the phenomena of the writers of the paper promises, futures contracts, naked options, et-al, to be unable to deliver on the commitments of physical gold OR cash equivalent. Buyers of derivatives either do not confront, or are ignorant of the fact, that they are dependent on the creditworthiness of the contract writer who has a minor margin percentages covering the promises written.

In a "Shoot the moon" Gold breakout, there would not be enough physical gold and collectable cash to handover the �Profits� owed to the contract holders. That puts those contracts in the same position as the shares of a company in receivership. they would only be sellable for pennies on the dollar if at all."
-------------------------------

Comments?

Canuck

(05/22/2001; 04:45:44 MDT - Msg ID: 54318)

Powell

"SECTSTATE isn't going to Africa...to be a punching bag...to walk into a "meatgrinder" as military guys say.

He is going to tell them the manipulation is over.

These days in late May and early June may be the last time anyone can buy physical gold...at any price."
-----------------------------

Comments?

Black Blade

(05/22/2001; 05:57:36 MDT - Msg ID: 54319)

working-kirk

That's an interesting line of thought that I overlooked. Using the energy crisis to benefit those in the government who wish to grab more power. It is for our "protection" that the government step in to solve the energy crisis, only that it will have a price tag attached. The cost being the loss of more liberties. I didn't take that tack. Thanks! I'll have to think on that for a while. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/22/2001; 06:01:11 MDT - Msg ID: 54320)

SteveH

http://money.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;$sessionid$T2Y0BJYAAAHOVQFIQMGCFFWAVCBQUIV0?xml=/money/2001/05/22/cngold22.xmlI gotta run, but chew on this article for a while. One reason cited for gold's recent run up is China dumping dollars and buying gold. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Belgian

(05/22/2001; 06:07:05 MDT - Msg ID: 54321)

Trying to interprete facts with some significance ?

1/ POG and mineshares : Passionate POG spike in contrast with orderly, disciplined and cooly controled behaviour of mineprices in an high volume environment. This looks like the work of someone who really knows what he is doing.
Mineprices anticipated the (expected) 290$ knock down hammer, by not passionately exploding to da moon. They were just carefully building on their disciplined pattern. This kind of behaviour suggests to me that "they" have certain price-targets + timing for gold in their projections. A very, very subtle play. We are experiencing the actions of the long awaited "squeeze" (anti) cabal (isn't it Auspec ?)

Dollarization-Kudlow (BB) : this desperate call is a confirmation of what we discussed extensively on dollar-hegemony and malafide dominance. POG spike together with dollarstrength ! Not business as usual and evidence for upcoming insight on what gold and value have in common.

Godsell, chairman at WGC : let us give him the benefit of the doubt ? Let him give evidence with action on his "store of value" and "gold focused debt relief system".
Mr. Godsell, turn the vulgarisation of Gold around and change its obscene price into a permanent store of value for individuals and collectivities. It is also in the miners interest to revalue your future. This is the kind of "change" we are expecting on Gold conferences (LBMA) in Istanboul where you are gathering with bankers and fellow producers. Let your shareprices reflect the true value of Gold !!! Don't count on speculative ups and downs for managing your scarce and ever declining reserves. Give the world a real tangible alternative for the paper hysteria !
This is the right kind of ambition for a gold-professional, reaching the age of half a century.

Auspec and "black gold":having crossed the african continent from desserts to jungles...I've seen lots of places where gold was digged. One constant on the amounts was the tiny little penecilline-bottle, with some nuggets or powder. Accidently, I also saw the Nubian gold searchers on the Kenya/Sudan border in the Turkana mountains. Same amounts of gold in yet another mass of penecilline bottles.
I met the Libanese middlemen and the most they have showed me was some 10 L buckets with unrefined gold. The african garimpeiros spend more time on fighting about the the gold than actually digging (panning) for it. Therefore, I have lots of troubles accepting numbers of thousand of tonnes of this kind of gold, gathered in the past centuries. But haven't been there for centuries of course (wish I could). This info, Only for amusement.

uponroof

(05/22/2001; 07:22:52 MDT - Msg ID: 54322)

Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill live on C-SPAN Weds. 7-9am est

Lets try to get all forums alerted to increase our odds of getting throughC-SPAN is a network devoted to American politics 24/7.

'Cable Satellite Public Access Network' is supported by those in the television communications bidness (Comcast, cablevision, etc.)

O'Neill will be fielding questions from callers for approximately 1 hour. Not sure if it will be from 7-8am or 8-9am. If we can get as many goldbugs as possible, that frequent all sites, to try to get through, I'm sure someone will.

This would be an excellent time to alert the many, many thousands of regular C-SPAN watchers, who are politically active, about the secret gummint gold policy and GATA's effort to expose it (plus it would be great just to put him on the spot!)

Phone numbers.....
202-737-0001
202-737-0002
202-628-0205

This is an easy way to make an impact. Recall all those letter campaigns, phone calls and e-mails?......Sent in blind faith that they would somehow reach the person intended, and then he would actually open it and read it? Well, here your chance to talk to 'THE MAN'. Mano y mano. Don't waste this opportunity!

Please post any thoughts on questions. Distilled sentences with maximum punch would be best. Thanks.

Have a great day!

Canuck

(05/22/2001; 08:37:14 MDT - Msg ID: 54323)

National Post article

"Gold run falters....." by Garry Marr.

"Chris Foster, a futures specialist with Scotia McLoed, 'They erased most of their short positions'"
------------------------------------------------------

Say what?

Also, Marr has the late 1999 gold run-up due to producer forward unwinding and spring 2000 run-up due to W.A.

Why do these guys bother to comment at all.

turbohawg

(05/22/2001; 09:39:39 MDT - Msg ID: 54324)

good post by Dan Ascani ...

http://www.gmstechstreet.com/cgi-bin/webbbs_gmspublic.pl?read=611... over on his board the other day. Here are the guts of it.

Posted By: Dan Ascani

...

A couple observations are important, though, to reiterate, I think: what's coming at us is a big wave of deflation. Your post describes a classic example of asset price deflation (the wiping out of capital from the internet fall-out) translating over to commodity price deflation (the slide in real estate in S.F., for example) due to the fact that the capital that disappeared from the asset price deflation is no longer available to keep pushing up real estate and other values. It's classic. This has been going on for quite some time in Japan, where the third phase of deflation has hit: monetary deflation.

What's happening in the U.S. is becoming alarming. 70% plunge in NASDAQ, 90% in tech stocks (many); real estate is slipping; economic numbers are plunging; the Fed is panicking by hitting that inflation button (pedal to the metal) like a rat in a Skinner Box to try to combat the disappearing capital it sees happening.

It's the disappearance of capital--of money stock--that's important in understanding why deflation, not inflation, is now occurring globally and domestically. Prices of commodities and real estate will rise and they'll fall, but what's coming at us like a Tsunami is a huge round of disappearing capital-related monetary deflation. Observe what happened from 1989 to present in Japan, which we are beginning to mirror, and we can understand what's happening here and what the Fed is seeing. During true monetary inflation, the Fed would not likely be easing in panicky fashion as it is now. It sees the monetary deflation.

When the dot-com bubble burst and the NASDAQ plunged 70%, money disappeared. Banks began to sieze up. Liqiuidity disappeared. There is not enough money to go around to keep pushing prices up at the crazy rate they had been, and that is creating a vacuum below the economy. The path of least resistance is for the economy to fall into that vacuum. The Fed is trying to provide a safety net.

Note the irony in the likelihood that soaring energy prices--which are ostensibly inflation-related--are actually *contributing* to monetary deflation, illiquidity, and the disappearance of capital. The high energy costs merely serve to suck even more capital out of the economy, much of which is exported to oil-exporting countries, still further contributing to the disappearance of capital problem here in the U.S.

Note that gold is RISING during all of this--another classic example of Gold in a Deflationary Economy.

...

Tree in the Forest

(05/22/2001; 09:41:02 MDT - Msg ID: 54325)

Crudele's explanation of last Wednesday's SM pop

From John Crudele via DrDoolittle at GE:�NOW THE US FED IS MANIPULATING THE STOCK MARKET�(DrDoolittle)
May 22, 11:10
This is a MUST read for all. It is further testament the Fed is manipulating the markets(GOLD and now stocks)

THE REALITY OF THE RATE CUT
��By JOHN CRUDELE

May 22, 2001 -- IT'S now a week since the last Federal Reserve cut interest rates, and this would be a great time for someone to tell you the truth. When the Dow Jones industrial average rose an astonishing 343 points - or 3.15 percent - Wednesday, it was alternately described in the papers as a delayed reaction to Tuesday's half-point cut in interest rates or as a cheer for the slightly less-than-expected jump in consumer inflation announced the morning of the rally.

Now for the truth: It was neither of those. Those explanations, in fact, are ridiculous. What really happened? The market was reacting to a little-understood, barely discernible move by the Fed Wednesday morning to kick stocks in the butt.

Last Tuesday the Fed decided the economy was doing so badly that interest rates needed to come down another half-point. What probably shocked the Fed was what happened after Tuesday's rate cut - nothing. Alan Greenspan and his cohorts must have been really annoyed.

Then came the magic that everyone missed. Mid-morning on Wednesday the Fed did $11 billion of what are called repos.
Here's what happens: The Fed goes to banks and takes $11 billion in government bonds off their hands and gives them cash in return. None of this is actual money. You couldn't see the Brinks trucks pull up. It's just a ledger entry.
But the move gives banks a lot more money to lend and to invest.

The $11 billion figure last Wednesday was much larger than the market had been expecting and, within minutes, the stock and bond markets were moving higher.

Does this mean Wall Street thinks the economic trouble is over? Not at all. What the smart people on Wall Street took from the experience is that the Fed is willing to do anything to get the stock market higher. The Fed may or may not have magical abilities. But with straight-forward rate cuts no longer having their intended effect, Washington seems willing to experiment. This subtle repo action by the Fed was obviously missed by those who like simple reasons for their rallies.

The Fed's decision to spike the market higher on Wednesday with an infusion of liquidity into the banking system is a controversial one. Purists would say that Greenspan and his gang ought to leave their dirty hands off the free-trading U.S. markets.

This is going to get me a lot of irate e-mail, but I say the Fed needs to do anything in its power to make sure the stock market doesn't go any lower.�And that includes intervention through the purchase of futures contracts, and tricks like the repo-maneuver.

Even with the big drop of the last year, stock prices are still very overvalued. And the U.S. economy is doing so poorly right now that we simply can't take a chance of allowing equity prices to decline any more.

Alan Greenspan did what he had to do on Wednesday, which also happened to be one of those options-expiration weeks where the market has a tendency to go higher, anyway.

There's one more thing you need to know. What the Fed is doing is in direct contradiction of the way free markets are supposed to work, probably contrary to the charter of the Fed - and definitely very dangerous.

You probably only care about the dangerous part, so here it is.�Stocks are still very high priced. And the impact of Fed rate cuts is negligible.�If Greenspan's attempts to re-create the bubble fail - or even become too transparent - the integrity of our entire monetary system could come into question.�You might want to keep your fingers crossed that this works.

turbohawg

(05/22/2001; 09:46:09 MDT - Msg ID: 54326)

another from Ascani

http://www.gmstechstreet.com/cgi-bin/webbbs_gmspublic.pl?read=638...

It's interesting, since the only time real interest rates fall below 2% is when a deflationary episode knocks rates down. Gold performs well during deflation, contrary to expecations. Note that in many foreign countries, gold has exploded even as real interest rates plunged, as in Japan. Gold against Pacific Rim currencies has been tracing out a bull market for some time now, yet real rates in Japan are near 2%.

Due to the "Retrieval Phenomenon" detailed in our report, "Gold In A Deflationary Economy," gold--again contrary to expecations-- leads commodity prices, not vice versa. Many people think that gold follows commodity prices, but it's vice versa (that's why gold did not follow Crude oil prices since the 1998 low in Crude. Gold now rallies for a different reason...).

Finally, it is perhaps little known that one of the highest intermarket correlations exists between long-term interest rates and gold prices. Offset significant long-term lows in long bond yields by 9 months and one can see lows in gold.

The October 1998 low in bond yields was followed 9 months later by a 20-year low in gold prices, which held in 1999 and on this year's retest, during the 21st Fibonacci year from the 1980 peak in gold prices.

There is no doubt that, contrary to majority opinion, gold appears to be presenting a long-term buying opportunity of the magnitude that hardly anyone perceives since old-style myths about gold and inflation/deflation still dominate investor and consumer thinking.

...

Sierra Madre

(05/22/2001; 10:37:01 MDT - Msg ID: 54327)

Canuck...what the SECSTATE is going to Africa for...

Another opinion:

Maybe - maybe - the Sec State is going to Africa to read those guys the "Riot Act".

Something to this effect:

"Listen you monkeys, we put you in power by backing the end of Apartheid, and we can throw you out very easily.

"Don't try to get wise with us. Don't even think of stirring up trouble in the gold market. If you do, you will have cause to regret such foolishness.

"It is entirely within our power to destroy your economy in short order. And you will all wind up out of power, and maybe dead, if you cross us.

"So just be good boys, and play along with us, and you'll be OK.

"Is that understood?

"Thank you, I knew you would understand where Africa's interests lie. Good day, gentlemen."

Sierra.

TheStranger

(05/22/2001; 11:08:34 MDT - Msg ID: 54328)

turbohawg

turbohawg, how are you? I wish you would show up around here a little more often.

I read your Ascani pieces with great interest. Of course, I think he's on the wrong track. His remark about the slide in San Francisco real estate prices is misleading as I think you will see from the news article I am emailing you. The following is a snippit:

"...the (year 2000)price increases the Labor Department reported put San Diego ahead of nearly every other place in the country. Among the nation's largest metropolitan areas highlighted in the federal report, only the San Francisco Bay Area had inflation nearly as high as San Diego's during 2000.

Prices rose 5.5 percent in the Bay Area during the year, driven by a 60 percent jump in the cost of natural gas and a 7.5 percent jump in housing costs."

Here we go again.

TheStranger

(05/22/2001; 11:10:31 MDT - Msg ID: 54329)

Heads Up

Sometime in the next hour or so, CNBC is going to interview the manager of the Van Eck Precious Metals Fund.

Sierra Madre

(05/22/2001; 11:20:27 MDT - Msg ID: 54330)

SteveH...your post 54316 reposting Mozel@kitco....

Mozel concludes his post by asking, what would dollarization do for Mexico?

We have had the visit of Jesse Helms and the entire Foreign Relation Committee to Mexico. Unprecedented. This means something very serious is cooking.

Nobel prizewinner Mundell is coming to Mexico. This points to dollarization. He is, in my opinion, a tool of the Establishment and is coming to set up the process of dollarization.

Citibank has bought out Mexico's oldest bank and No. 2 in size. This points to dollarization as the next step.

What this means for Mexico is an enormous boom, based on credit in unlimited quantities from the US.

Mexico is in the process of annexation. Thus ends the history of an independent Mexico. The vision of the whole hemisphere as the empire of the US, dates from the 18th Century. We have a letter of Thomas Jefferson dated 1824, which rests in the Historical Archives at Philadelphia, where Jefferson's remarkable vision is explicit.

There will be a remarkable boom in Mexico. The population of Mexico is largely debt free, as a result of the collapse of our banking system, originating way back in the 70's, with an orgy of credit expansion.

Once we have dollarization, the country will be flooded with credit. Credit cards for 100 million Mexicans. Mortgages in unlimited quantity for a country hungry for housing. Credit for everything. It is going to be wild!

Mexico will be enslaved by credit. The idea of Nation is on its way out - at least for several generations. A poor country will be drunk on material goods obtained by selling out the country.

The motive: Mexico's oil and gas are vital to the US.

In the long run: I can visualize a US President by the name of "Juan P�rez" but I find it much harder to visualize a President of Mexico by the name of "John Smith".

Nations endure. The birth rate is all-important.

The annexation of Mexico cannot be similar to the reunion of West and East Germany. These two are made up of the same people, speaking the same language, sharing a common history of centuries, with peace between their religions hammered out in long and bloddy wars.

That is not the case in the Mexico-US relation: different ethnic constitution, different cultures, different languages, different religions, different histories.

But, from the bankers' point of view, all that is meaningless: here is a market for dollar credits.

Can ORO, Trail Guide, Another or FOA, give us some light with regard to the annexation of Mexico as a result of the diminishing importance of the dollar in Europe?

"Poor Mexico, so far from God, and so close to the US" - Porfirio D'az, President of Mexico, 1880-1910 approx.

So, I see a tremendous boom brewing for Mexico. Am I right? Opinions welcomed!

Sierra

Sierra Madre

(05/22/2001; 11:25:23 MDT - Msg ID: 54331)

Error in my previous post...

That was SteveH's post 54306 I was referring to, not 54316.

Sierra

TheStranger

(05/22/2001; 11:52:21 MDT - Msg ID: 54332)

A Guy Named Joe From The Van Eck Precious Metals Fund

Well, they interviewed him. I was on the phone and trying to listen out of one ear, so, regrettably, I did not catch his full name. But I think he did very well. He was asked if this is just another phony spike, and he said he doesn't think so. He talked about how things are different with the current rally. He also mentioned the danger of a dollar decline. He pointed out that the last good move in gold carried it up to $400 and kept it there for a while. He felt that might happen again this time. The interviewer, Bill Griffith, made no effort to belittle gold investments. In fact, he seemed genuinely interested.

Joe's recommended American Gold Stock: Barrick Gold. Honest.

JMB

(05/22/2001; 12:39:36 MDT - Msg ID: 54333)

Can You Feel It?

Gold has become money again.

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/22/2001; 12:50:16 MDT - Msg ID: 54334)

A Reality Check (tongue in cheek): The wide world of ethereal payment systems

http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=613491&CFID=2276981&CFTOKEN=78583862Read this article from The Economist regarding shifts toward a "cashless society".

We sure are a creative bunch of creatures, aren't we?

The more you see the world "as is", the more you realize the pressing need for a Free Market in gold (as a wholly-owned asset) to provide the avenue to secure highly-liquid WEALTH which is currently nonexistent elsewhere. Give it a read, then give it some thought.

For those who object to fractional-reserve banking, such a free gold market is probably the escape you've been looking for but had trouble finding due to the prerequisite detachment from banking currency usage.

Canuck

(05/22/2001; 12:55:03 MDT - Msg ID: 54335)

POG

Decent bounce to close out the day.

Just heard from a major bullion desk, "..gold is NOT going to stop at 290 tonight.."

(smile)

beesting

(05/22/2001; 12:57:19 MDT - Msg ID: 54336)

Sir Sierra Madre.

From your post:
[snip]
<>[unsnip]

IMHO some of the plus marks:
1. Mexico has oil.
2. Mexico has Silver in large quantities.
3. Mexico has a large willing to work, work force.
4. In the north large undeveloped lands.
5. A year round favorable climate.
6. And much,much more to offer.

Again IMHO if, The Powers That Be, decide they want a fast booming type expansion then they will probably decide to do it through credit expansion at every level, that in turn eventually leads to the "Bust" cycle, which in most cases ends in disaster.

The world today is on shake-y ground financially due to credit expansion. It also in-slaves the people to the ones who extend credit. The biggest problem with credit based systems is balancing the check book, whether it be a multi-million dollar(Peso) company, a country, or a small family.However most will disagree with my opinion.

Now being an American I have to go back to what Thomas Jeffersons thoughts were:"Whoever controls the "Money" controls the.........."you fill in the blank,,,choices are country,family,business,people,army,or financial decisions.

Now if The Powers That Be,in Mexico, decide they want long term stability and a slowly expanding economy which in the long term will benifit the future generations, they should choose to first use some type of 100% bi-metallic monetary system AND encourage SAVINGS!(Instead of,"put a chicken in every pot," it should be; "put a Gold coin in every household".) Trade a portion of all exports for physical Gold! This would make the peso stronger in relation to other currencies.

Jesse Helms and Robert Mundell are well known Gold advocates, a plus in high level monetary discussions.

Here is one of the things I see, good or bad, happening soon:
Mexico is going to put in nuclear power plants in the north and not only sell oil products to the U.S. but sell electricity as well.
However, how does Mexico finance this is the big important question? Nuff said!
Just some random opinions.....beesting.

Galearis

(05/22/2001; 13:18:57 MDT - Msg ID: 54337)

@Randy et al re your comments to "grouchy muse" post

Firstly, an apology for being tardy in my response. I was distracted by another work load in preparation for the holiday weekend and this morning I had server problems and could not log on...

I thank you, Randy, for your discussion. I found it both enlightening and an up-lift to my grouch-fest. It is wonderful to have such a forum on which to vent (politely), and to then receive some reassurances in the form of facts and some healthy discussion. And yes, I should have been more specific in my statements about "dog food" bullion banks to be sacrificed. The "two big to fail" scenario is probably very real in how the system will save some and not others. Likewise, ScotiaMoccata (is that two 'c's and one 't' or...?) may not be at risk as inferred by my example. It is likely going to be hurt in the "paper gold certificate" exposure if there is a run for the metal, but these defaults will somehow be "excuseable" amidst the debris of larger damage - not least of which will be the bailing out of (some or all) the "dog food" list that you mention. This bank, to my knowledge does not play the derivative rigging game as do these others but rather functions (more) as a bullion bank should.

That being said, I note with some satisfaction that many on the forum have not posted unrealistically enthusiastic statements about the current rally. I was going to post a later comment about the large lease rate hikes on Friday, but ran out of time. Needless to say I was not surprised at today's market action - except that "they" were unable to lower the paper price more than have achieved. (The USD is rising today again.) Leasing is still alive (and now a strategic defense ploy, yes?) and regardless of the risk to those involved, the markets will continue to be controlled. In effect I think "they" know it is too soon (!) for the bull to begin. The EURO is not ready and an uncontrolled market now would pose a systemic risk without a viable new world reserve currency. We will know a little more if these new "buyers" actually buy real metal or just speculate on the paper. Right now paper has had a lovely little rally.

Back in March I had the great pleasure and honour of meeting Bill Murphy during a get-to-gether in his Toronto hotel suite. At that time I shook his hand and told him in all sincerity that a very possible irony of his efforts on behalf of the gold markets was for his campaigne to actually BE the "left field event" that would trigger the bull. I think his efforts have "tickled" not triggered. But I reserve judgement on this date. When it finally happens I think GATA's contribution to world events will be seen to have had had a profound influence. I am itching to email this man and call him "Lefty". My fondest wishes are for GATA to get ALL the credit. The organization more than deserves it.

I think we are at the very beginnings and we will have these little rally anomalies (increasingly now) from time to time - like a boiler venting off too much pressure - but suppressive activities will continue and the POG and POS will go higher but not to the extent to capture the public attention.

Regards,

G.

Old Yeller

(05/22/2001; 13:20:33 MDT - Msg ID: 54338)

The world's strongest currency...

http://www.prudentbear.com/boards/user/non-frames/message.asp?forumid=4&messageid=48516&threadid=48516
Drum roll please;why it's gold.From the commentary;

"Gold,which unreliably clocks the pace of the dollar's decline,has risen 14% against the greenback this year."

Note some of the less than stellar outlooks on the US$ at the end of the piece.

Is this the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning?

Cavan Man

(05/22/2001; 14:08:46 MDT - Msg ID: 54339)

Sierra Madre

Right you are. Canada is on the list and is also a work in progress towards dollarization. Canada too, has beaucoup resources. Beyond the Euro, Mundell has been designing a new global monetary architecture. Whither South America?

I say again; we are watching history being made. When communism fell in Europe and Russia; when Churchill's "Curtain" came down; when Germany re-united; at that time, from my perspective, it all happened so quickly it seemed like a blur. When the dust settled, many, including myself said: "What happened"? Today, a paradigm (monetary) of similar proportions and significance is unfolding. This time, I am reading the sign posts and paying attention. This time, I'll know what happened before it happens. To this small mind, the direction events are taking us all is unmistakable. Good afternoon class and welcome to 2001.

Mr Gresham

(05/22/2001; 14:15:17 MDT - Msg ID: 54340)

Sierra Madre: Mexico

http://www.bimetallicbank.com/plata/english.htmThanks for bringing some insight about the moves ahead on Mexico, and my only hope throughout reading it was that the dollar would trip before Mexico could stick its neck into the noose of dollarization. Aren't Euro & S. America holding meetings on new alignment? Wouldn't Mexico be aware, and attempt to hold off dollarizing, as weak places like Ecuador have shown the desperate example? How are connections, perhaps via Spain(?), between Mexico and Euro? Debt-free sounds like a pretty good starting place for independent development. Maybe Citibank is just trying to get in on a good thing? (could cut both ways, of course, as banks backed by Greenputs and F-15s tend to spoil a good thing pretty quickly)

Wouldn't be a Mexico discussion without Hugo Salinas Price's proposals about an independent silver currency for Mexico -- link above...

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/22/2001; 14:20:38 MDT - Msg ID: 54341)

Old Yeller @ # 54338 The world's strongest currency...

Sir,

Your quote, ""Gold,which unreliably clocks the pace of the dollar's decline,has risen 14% against the greenback this year."

Comment:

I mentioned this the other day. To me this is the most fundamental difference between this move in gold all other moves in recent memory. While all fiats are now being manipulated, most notably the USD, gold has taken off the gloves. If gold can go up like this against the USD while it flies so high, imagine what will happen when the dollar has its clothes removed.

Richard Russell considers this, soon to change in the direction of the dollar, as very important. So should we.

Very respectfully,

HBM

R Powell

(05/22/2001; 14:26:57 MDT - Msg ID: 54342)

O fer day

Lease rates and the XAU index got hammered today while the POG recovered near the end of the day to close down only $0.30 at $285.5 on the June contract. Interesting that lumber followed gold's lead and was also down today (limit down). Maybe they do sometimes move together?
Today was an up day for the poor man's gold- silver.
It's been a long time since I've had to report an 0 fer day, hopefully I can do better tomorrow.
Rich

Mr Gresham

(05/22/2001; 14:47:17 MDT - Msg ID: 54343)

Japan

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/161Haven't heard anything from them for awhile, due for a burst of something?

While we're considering worldwide influences and behind the scenes moves, here's a 2 year old piece by Reg Howe about keeping gold backwardized in Japan to hold up the yen. It's written so clearly, and covers so much, that it is a good refresher or intro on how these markets work across borders and across currencies.

I don't know if Japan is having any effect now (with T-bonds going down, dollar going up, yeesh!), but gold still seems slightly backward there http://www.tocom.or.jp/souba/souba_e.html

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/22/2001; 14:57:56 MDT - Msg ID: 54344)

Mr Gresham msg#: 54340 -- Mexico

For what its worth, you may recall that the BIS has recently announced that it will be establishing a representative office for the Americas...only its second such office. The first such representative office was established in Hong Kong in 1998.

The site chosen for this second office was not Washington or New York as many might expect, but rather was Mexico City, to be opened by year-end if all goes according to plan. Building euro bridges to Latin America....

Cavan Man

(05/22/2001; 15:06:37 MDT - Msg ID: 54345)

Randy,Gresham,Sierra

MexicoI recall reading an article in Stratfor (spelling) about the Euro/EU negotiations with Mexico about a year ago maybe more. The article went into great detail and from what I recall, the EU/Mexico relationship was described as already being pretty deep and the discussions at that time were to further enhance their relationship. Pardon me for butting in and wish I had the piece to post.

beesting

(05/22/2001; 15:40:09 MDT - Msg ID: 54346)

Still Searching After all these Months....Physical POG???

Sir Black Blade, your # 54297 prompted the following thoughts, a huge thank you for all your time and""energy"" spent here...From your post:

[snip]
<into gold. Remember the deal that China made with Harmony Gold to by a few tons of the barbarous
relic? Looks as if there may be more gold buying perhaps, and the dishoarding of the US Dollar for
gold may be already begun.>>[unsnip]

Comment:
For years now I have been searching these Gold forums trying to find out an alternate method that could be a benchmark for the pricing of physical Gold, with so far, little success. Most reading this realize the known methods of setting the POG is the on going trading of "Paper" gold. This also could be called the "Wholesale" POG as it represents only large quantities of Gold.(400 ounce bars & 100 ounce contracts)

So, lets see who else could set the POG if they so desired!

Well, a large producer(Gold mining company) who does their own refining could. Also if this large producer sells product(Gold) directly to a buyer.

The hedging Gold mining companies prices recieved for todays Gold delivery may have been agreed to years in the past, so their prices would not qualify as present POG and so far the only way to know the prices recieved is way after the fact when the prices are released in company reports.

This is not a buy or sell recommendation:

Harmony Gold,(HGMCY) selling about 15 tonnes a year(about 482,250 ounces)directly to the Chinese at "UNKNOWN" prices could, if they so desired,release rand or dollar or yuan figures recieved for physical Gold "sold" to the Chinese, giving an actual wholesale POG. This figure could be IMHO, the real benchmark for other Gold mining companies, buyers and sellers of physical Gold, and everyone else interested in POG.

Now Harmony probably sells Gold on a timeline basis. Maybe every three months, maybe every month, or maybe once a week, I don't know. But,lets assume it was once a week.(Don't like the name but, "a weekly fix") Wouldn't that be often enough to adjust supply and demand actual prices of Gold and at the same time give much more stablity to the POG,,,,,exactly what would be required if Gold was used as a medium of exchange? Please remember the POG is volitile because of the existance of the paper POG market.

I have read Harmony does their own refining so actual refining costs would be added in to the finished Gold products sold.(bars,coins,etc. etc.) Also, if while refining, alloys are used in the finished Gold, finished products prices would vary in their wholesale price. So, the seller would have to price products on "actual amount" of Gold contained.(.999 or .995 or .990 etc.)

Now actual mining costs vary with each and every mine, so the after cost profit recieved would still vary with every Gold mine, so it might be that "wholesale" Gold prices could and would still flucuate as real Gold is sold into the market. However if you look at any successful businesses books you would see between 30% to 50% or more, mark up from wholesale pricing to retail pricing, depending on how many steps are involved in between the wholesale product and the product being sold to the retail consumer.

So, with this in mind, what should the real cost of new Gold coins be?
If you check out the U.S. Mints web site I think you will find "proof" Gold coins, and the like, are selling at about double the wholesale (Spot) POG, and according to the mint they are selling fast.

Compare that price to USAGOLDS price and I think you may realize what a bargain on "Real Gold" you are getting if you call them.....No, I don't work for USAGOLD!
Thanks for Reading....beesting.

ORO

(05/22/2001; 16:21:00 MDT - Msg ID: 54347)

Old Yeller - another quote, apropos yours

Mundel, Summer 99:

"Gold is unstable because some large industrial countries want it that way"

Randy,

a note

Take a look at the old discussion with Aragorn, Yellin and Aristotle regarding the impossibility of a stable credit money untied to gold or other natural commodity money.

Even FOA points to the ECB maintaining a par of sorts with gold, as "keeping an eye on the Euro POG". This par is unworkable in his predicted UN-free gold, of course, because the only way to assure conversion at a fixed par into gold is to do it now rather than invest and tie the profits to gold via derivatives or direct denomination of gold in debt contracts (impossible to do in FOA's UN free gold, since you can't denominate gold within contracts). This means that no one would be left holding Euro denominated fixed payout securities, and real long term Euro interest rates will reflect the volatility of the Euro POG.

auspec

(05/22/2001; 16:25:19 MDT - Msg ID: 54348)

cb2

Are you practicing for the major celebration??!! Practice makes perfect, no?
Salud

Black Blade

(05/22/2001; 17:02:15 MDT - Msg ID: 54349)

beesting

Harmony does refine its own gold using a process involving sulfur dioxide gas, parafin, etc. I don't recall the exact process as I used to have the info but I seem to have lost it. The final product is .999 pure and is wrought gold (not coined, milled, etc.). which makes it illegal for private ownership in SA. They sell 10 Tola (~3.75 oz) bars among other things. They also sell gold in jewelry form as they have their own jewelry manufacturing and retail business. You could say that they are vertically integrated. I always thought that it would be an excellent idea if the USA GOLD castle could obtain and sell Harmony 10 Tola bars in honor of a gold company that refuses to sell forward. I don't think that they are commonly sold in the US, but primarily in India. As far as the deal with China, I am not sure of the time frame, but considering the company's philosophy on hedging, I assume that they sell at spot. Cheers!

- Black Blade

uponroof

(05/22/2001; 17:05:11 MDT - Msg ID: 54350)

Morgan addresses silver and superconductivity

with thanks to Richard 640Remember that conversation we had about silver and superconductivity last week? Morgan addresses it!

Got this e-mail from a Richard 640. As you can see he forwarded this to Barrons. Not sure if this article was posted here yet.

btw-don't forget to call C-SPAN tommorrow to talk to O'Neill! I will post the info again later tonight.
*********************************************************
FROM RICHARD LANDWIRTH M. D. TO
MAIL@BARRONS-
REALITY CALLS GFMS SURVEY CONCLUSIONS INTO QUESTION

The silver market is once again being baffled by conflicting information and the strangest thing is that the confusion seemingly traces back to the organization whose mandate is to ensure that the silver supply/demand picture
is both precise and positive.

As I write this, press releases have just been issued detailing results of the World Silver Survey, an annual silver market summary compiled by Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS), independent of the U.S. based Silver
Institute the organization to which I refer. One release - titled "Silver Demand Forecast to Fall" - projects that prices will likely drop this year "because of ample supplies, increased mine production and the sale of silver
stocks."

The writer does leave a glimmer of hope for silver bulls, noting "there was a sudden spurt in demand last year," and quoting the World Silver Survey as follows: "The report says increased use of silver in industrial applications
was the 'prime driver' behind the rise in the total demand last year. Overall, world silver fabrication demand grew by more than 5 percent, while use in industrial applications, such as semiconductors and cellular phones, rose by 11 percent to 378m ounces."

However, he just as quickly dashes that bullish hope by warning, "Just as supply issues begin to look more favorable in the current year, demand could tail away in key areas."

Let me make one thing clear here. I don't want to refute the numbers produced by GFMS. In fact, I frequently use their Survey results in my work. What I do want to do is challenge their conclusions - and get you to think for yourself rather than blindly accepting the above analysis. For starters, let me ask you a couple of questions:

Silver demand exceeded supply last year - for the eleventh consecutive year! Does 11 straight years of supply deficits sound like "a sudden spurt in demand" to you?

Total world silver supply last year was estimated at 300 million to 500 million ounces. Does a total supply of 300 million to 500 million ounces seem bigger or smaller than the 2 billion ounces of total silver supplies in 1980
- when the price went above $40 per ounce?

Finally, what's the possible basis for a projection that demand could "tail away in key areas"?

To illustrate the validity of this last question, let me briefly digress from the Survey results. By now, everyone should be aware of the on-going energy problems in California and elsewhere, as well as the key arguments against most of the possible alternatives for generating additional electrical power. What if I were to tell you there is a very viable solution to this energy problem? What if I said this solution won't require a single new power plant to be built, nor any increase in the burning of fossil fuels? What if this positive solution were already fully developed and ready to implement - and, once it's in place, no new power sources will be required for many years?

Wouldn't that be a gift from Heaven, so to speak? I'm sure your answer's a resounding yes - so I'll assure you, flat out, that what I've just described does indeed exist.

What I'm talking about relates to a problem known as "line loss." Specifically, when electricity is generated, not all the power reaches the end user. A large percentage of it is simply eroded away by the resistance it encounters in the lines through which it is transmitted. In fact, this "line
loss" sometimes runs in excess of 30 percent. However, there is a method that, for practical purposes, can reduce the line loss to almost nothing. It involves a technology called superconductivity.

I first became interested in this technology after reading a back grounder prepared by the Silver Institute. (Yes, the very same Silver Institute that brought you the GFMS Survey cited above. See superconductivity.) In researching the technology, I discovered there is a company that now has it
fully in place the American Superconductor Corporation (ASC). ASC's corporate profile reads as follows:

"American Superconductor Corporation is a world leader in developing and manufacturing products utilizing super-conducting materials and power electronic devices for electric power applications. American Superconductor's
products - and those sold by electrical equipment manufacturers that incorporate its products - can dramatically increase the capacity and reliability of power-delivery networks, significantly reduce manufacturing
costs for electrical equipment such as motors and generators, lower operating costs and conserve resources used to generate electric power. Founded in 1987, the company is headquartered in Westborough, Mass. For more
information, visit www.amsuper.com."

That obviously sounds great for the power-hungry people of California, but the question for us now becomes, "What does this have to do with silver?"

The answer is: Everything!

According to the Silver Institute backgrounder, the super-conductivity technology requires one ton of silver per mile of super-conducting transmission line.

A ton per mile! Now that's a lot of silver - a reality you have to admit even if you're bearish on silver. To illustrate, let's hypothesize a transmission line from New York to San Francisco - a line that would require about 3,000 miles of super-conducting wire. That would be 3,000 tons of silver. Stated in more familiar terms, that's approximately 96 million ounces of silver.

Ninety-six MILLION! That's roughly one-quarter of last year's total industrial consumption of silver - for just one transmission line.

Since the Silver Institute is supposedly biased in favor of silver (in spite of the latest GFMS report), I didn't want to take its figures at face value. So, I called ASC for confirmation. I spoke to a corporate vice president,
asking if he could verify how much silver the Company used in its technology. The answer was a very firm, "NO!" Seems it's a closely guarded trade secret.

Determined, I carried my investigation further, finally tracking down an article written by a leading utility industry forecaster. In the story, he projected the same usage - but I later found out his data also came from the
Silver Institute.

Still undeterred, I took advantage of my recent interview with the Herald-Tribune, explaining the technology to the reporter and mentioning that I was having trouble verifying the quantity of silver used. The reporter loved this aspect of the story I was helping him with, so he contacted ASC as
well, bringing to bear the power of the press. unfortunately, even that power wasn't enough as he was also informed the numbers are private. And, in the one negative note in all this, he was also told that ASC is developing a
second-generation super-conducting product that will use somewhat less silver than is now required.

Despite that caution, however, the prospects for super-conductivity still strongly reinforce my contention - which is simple. Contrary to the GFMS Survey, there's absolutely no evidence of an impending drop in industrial demand for silver. Although you certainly don't read about most of them in the popular press, more and more applications are developed for silver every year - especially in the high-technology sector. In fact, there are so many new uses that silver might possibly be viewed as the ultimate "technology
stock."

And, don't forget: The tremendous potential silver has as a component for technological advancement represents only half the story. The farther we move down the fiat money road, we may ultimately see the investment demand for
silver greatly exceed the industrial demand.

Thus, in spite of what you may hear in media accounts about the Silver Institute's new GFMS Survey, I firmly believe the silver outlook remains clearly positive.

May 21, 2001

David Morgan

www.silver-investor.com

Mr Gresham

(05/22/2001; 17:16:06 MDT - Msg ID: 54351)

Randy

"The site chosen for this second office was not Washington or New York as many might expect, but rather was Mexico City, "

Flanking move, eh? Never attack a fortified postion head-on, but cut off supply lines and isolate it. As I remember, Scipio went for Spain in a flanking move, as Hannibal's troops (and elephants) marched on Rome, forcing the Carthaginian senate to recall the attack and adopt a defensive posture, while Rome built strength for eventual attack on Carthage... And a dozen other examples you could probably think of...

Black Blade

(05/22/2001; 17:31:01 MDT - Msg ID: 54352)

Sierra Madre and Beesting Dollarization of the Western Hemisphere

You might want to review a post I put up a couple of days ago. I was speculating about how the cross border energy sales and energy crisis could lead to Dollarization of North America and possibly expanding to the whole hemisphere. And wouldn't you know it I stumble upon a Larry Kudlow article proposing that very same idea. Hmmm�

Black Blade (05/20/01; 17:46:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 54085)
For Your Consideration - Energy Crisis to Lead to a North American Common Currency?

Snippit:

Natural gas is the fastest growing source for energy in the US. The countries of North America (Mexico, Canada, and the US) must move toward economic integration. So far the first steps have been taken with the North American Free Trade Agreement. The next step may be the dollarization of Mexico and Canada. The George Bush Administration has been progressively making overtures toward Mexico and Canada since coming to power. Now with the energy crisis getting out of control, there will be a push for greater cross border natural gas pipeline capacity. The need is so great that it could impact the trade balance equation between the three countries. Therefore, expect a push for a common currency such as the US dollar.

turbohawg

(05/22/2001; 17:34:42 MDT - Msg ID: 54353)

Hi TheStranger

>turbohawg, how are you? I wish you would show up around here a little more often.<

Just fine, thanks. I do have a little more time now that I'm on, uh, extended vacation, but my debates these days tend to be more impromptu, face to face efforts, where one can hash things out over a drink and a few laughs and be done with it. Yes, that's *drink* and not *beer*. Had to lay off the beer � was building a tool shed.

>I read your Ascani pieces with great interest. Of course, I think he's on the wrong track. <

Ah, surely you jest. :) Of course, it seems to me he's one of a very few who have a good handle on things. Doug Noland is another favorite.

From my perspective, given the action in the Dow and the dollar over the last few months, it's not been a surprise that the markets are finally allowing the Fed another inflationary spurtlet within the larger deflation trend. The last spurt only lasted about a year and a half off the Fall �98 near crash before deflation pressures seized control again. Will the next time be the one where outright deflation takes over ? Don't know, but Fed actions indicate they're in dire straits, so I sure wouldn't bet against it. To borrow from an earlier metaphor, Greenspanic is running faster and faster and deflation is getting closer and closer. My guess is it won't be even close to a year and a half again before the next bout hits. We'll see.

>His remark about the slide in San Francisco real estate prices is misleading as I think you will see from the news article I am emailing you. <

Thanks for the article. Other articles I've noticed recently that are more up to date on current trends suggest that the real estate market out there has rolled over. Some lag time in the developing bust makes sense given that it takes awhile for people who have lost their jobs to blow through their savings and unemployment, and then start defaulting on payments. I believe San Diego is behind the Bay Area, but that's understandable given that Silicon Valley is ground zero for the tech bust. Regrettably, I've not been hanging on to those articles or other similar ones. The most memorable article I've seen took a look at the booming business for the repo man.

>Here we go again.<

Oh well � good for MK. We're making his case that gold is good to have in both inflationary and deflationary environments. Maybe he'll share some of his megabucks with us. It would seem that one really doesn't even need to know anything about inflation and deflation to realize that gold is a good investment right now. Simply understanding buy low/sell high and showing a little patience ought to serve one well over the longer haul.

Now if we arch-deflationists are correct and a severe liquidity crisis is looming ahead, many of those unprepared are apt to never realize the ultimate potential gains in their metals. Maybe it'll never come to that but it's hard for me to imagine the market making it easy for some.

As for now, it looks like we get to party a little longer. Cool.

hAug

R Powell

(05/22/2001; 17:39:15 MDT - Msg ID: 54354)

Philbro, not Refco

Carl H (54288) I remember Buffet's broker as being Philbro, the commodity branch of Soloman-Smith-Barney. Buffet started buying in the summer of 1997 and managed to accumulate 89 million ounces (over many months) before Philbro became the target of a lawsuit for market manipulation. At that point, Buffet disclosed his buying and publicly stated that he wanted 129 million ounces (total), which he took (physically) and then moved them to London where disclosure laws are more to his liking.
That he managed to buy 89 million ounces before being discovered leads me to wonder not only who might now be buying but also how much they'll be able to grab before the news is leaked.
Funny too, that once Buffet publicly stated that he was the buyer, all legal action concerning manipulation or cornering the market immediately disappeared. Hey, who's there?? Oh, it's just you Warren, okay boys, call off the dogs.
Rich

SteveH

(05/22/2001; 18:21:40 MDT - Msg ID: 54355)

All

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au0365nyb.gifYou want to see a beautiful chart. Check it out.

Wait...if you didn't get enough, check this one out:

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au0030lnb.gif

SteveH

(05/22/2001; 18:29:37 MDT - Msg ID: 54356)

All

http://m1.mny.co.za/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256A540068FB21?OpenDocumentPut the above analyst on the list of those who have no clue.

MO VER MEG

(05/22/2001; 18:56:29 MDT - Msg ID: 54357)

Black Blade

I paid particular attention to your reference to US based Gold Mines high-grading their deposits (killing the goose theory).

I appreciate the information and am acting on it - I certainly will not hear it from any analyst.

If you don't mind, what is the meaning of the name "Black Blade"?

Paying attention in South Dakota

MO VER MEG

uponroof

(05/22/2001; 19:24:46 MDT - Msg ID: 54358)

Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill live on C-SPAN Weds. 9am est

http://www.c-span.org/community/submitwj.asp O'Neill will be fielding questions from callers for approximately 1 hour. You can use the above link to e-mail questions to O'Neill now. The last schedule I saw had him being on at 9am. If we can get as many goldbugs as possible, that frequent all sites, to try to get through, I'm sure someone will.

This would be an excellent time to alert the many, many thousands of regular C-SPAN watchers, who are politically active, about the secret gummint gold policy and GATA's effort to expose it (plus it would be nice just to put him on the spot and let him know.....we know).

Phone numbers.....
202-737-0001
202-737-0002
202-628-0205

Here's a sample question: "Mr. O'Neill, does your unofficial weak dollar policy, designed to help domestic manufacturers through increased trade, include setting gold free? I understand Mr Greenspan warned major banks to clean up their gold hedges before the end of this month. Can we now expect gold to behave in a normal manner?"

This is an easy way to make an impact. Recall all those letter campaigns, phone calls and e-mails?......Sent in blind faith that they would somehow reach the person intended, and then he would actually open it and read it? Well, heres your chance to talk to 'THE MAN'. Mano y mano. Don't waste this opportunity!

auspec

(05/22/2001; 19:39:40 MDT - Msg ID: 54359)

@ Belgian/ Black Gold

http://www.ravelly.com/members/eagleranch/index.phpMeilleures salutations! Vos talents sont apprecies. Yes, the Black Gold issue. Alas, few are on the trail, for whatever reason. On the other hand an ongoing discussion/discovery is happening at the above link. For those who trust historical records there can be no such animal as significant quantities of Black Gold. End of discussion.
Best to the faithful, be ready for fireworks, VERY SOON!

SteveH

(05/22/2001; 20:20:32 MDT - Msg ID: 54360)

And we almost elected these ...

Protecting gold ... coin dealers do hang out as dealers that would be affected by this. I once sold a gold coin to buy a pistol. Wouldn't be able to do that if this passes.

GUN-SHOW BILL IS NOT WHAT THEY SAY

Re: S. 890, The McCain-Lieberman Bill:
"Gun Show Loophole Closing and Gun Law Enforcement Act of 2001."

by Alan Korwin, Author
Gun Laws of America
http://www.gunlaws.com

Mass media publicity on the newly proposed gun-show bill is grossly
inaccurate.

The bill has almost nothing to do with what you've probably heard so
far. The so-called "gun-show loophole" headlines are a minor detail and
basically obscure what the bill really does.

I've just finished studying the eight pages of legalese.
Here is it what it calls for:

1. Unprecedented federal control over gun shows nationwide -- perfectly
legal gun shows become strictly outlawed without prior federal approval,
licensing and registration of each show;

2. Centralized federal licensing and registration of every gun-show
promoter in the nation;

3. Centralized federal registration of every vendor -- including
non-gun vendors -- at any gun show in the country. In order for me to
sell my BOOKS at a gun show I'll have to pre-register and prove who I
am, or face arrest; a private individual looking to sell a single gun
would be treated as a vendor under this law and must be registered even
if the gun isn't sold;

4. Centralized federal registration of EVERY PERSON who attends a gun
show in America, whether or not they make purchases of anything at all
-- you won't be allowed in without registering;

5. Centralized collection of "any other information" on gun-show
attendees, as determined solely by the Secretary of the Treasury;

6. Imprisonment for attending a gun show and failing to give up any
information required by regulations of the Secretary of the Treasury;

7. Imprisonment of any gun-show promoter who fails to register a single
vendor;

8. Imprisonment of gun-show promoters who cannot prove they notified
every person attending a gun show of the new rules, and obtained from
attendees any information the Secretary of the Treasury mandates by
regulation;

9. Centralized collection of "any other information" the Secretary of
the Treasury decides, by regulation, is necessary on vendors, attendees,
and the gun show itself;

10. Submission by gun-show promoters of vendor registration logs a) 30
days before any gun show, and b) additional submission of updated vendor
registration logs 72 hours before any gun show, and c) additional
submission of vendor registration logs within five days of the close of
any gun show, under penalty of arrest and imprisonment for
non-compliance;

11. Identification of vendors only by use of federally approved photo
ID that may include use of a social security number, electronically
encoded data, or "biometric identifiers" such as fingerprint, voice
print, retina scan, iris scan, or similar (as defined under 18 USC
1028(d)(2));

12. Creation of a new license (in addition to a gun-show-promoter
license), similar to FFLs, for individuals who want access to the NICS
national background check system for facilitating gun-show sales for
private citizens;

13. Regulations to be issued by the Secretary of the Treasury on the
procedures, data collections, methods and implementation of the entire
process to federally control gun shows, in addition to the requirements
made by the proposed statute; such regulations will not be known,
drafted or even suggested, until after the McCain-Lieberman law is
enacted;

14. The proposed bill also puts pressure on state governments to make
at least 95% of their law enforcement records for the past 30 years
openly available to the federal government; and

-- makes unlimited funds available for the states to comply with these
federal goals;

-- requires annual federal review of states' compliance;

-- increases penalties (up to ten years imprisonment) for record-keeping
violations;

-- grants states permission to make even more restrictive requirements
without being out of compliance with these new federal laws (and by
implication, puts states that resist these rules in federal trouble);

-- provides hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars for more law
enforcement under numerous programs including project Exile and others;

-- hires 200 more Federal BATF Agents;

-- provides $10 million to the National Institute for Justice to give
out for research on "technologies that limit the use of a gun to the
owner"; and

-- provides for annual reports (in great detail) by the Attorney General
to Congress on whether the Brady law is working;

15. Enlargement of the federal bureaucracy and appropriation from
taxpayers of "such funds as are necessary" to license, register and
monitor an estimated ten million non-criminals who attend the thousands
of gun shows held annually in America; and

16. Oh yes, I almost forgot about the so-called "loophole" part the
media is so excited about -- the McCain-Lieberman bill will make an
honest private citizen a criminal for transferring a gun to another
honest private citizen, without first registering the transfer with, and
getting permission from, the federal government (represented by the FBI
at its data complex in Clarksburg, West Virginia).

Transfer or possession of a firearm to or by a criminal (a "federally
prohibited possessor") is completely unaffected by the McCain-Lieberman
"loophole" bill, so I guess it's accurate to characterize it as a
loophole bill.

To sum up: Perfectly legal gun sales -- with no victims or criminal
activity of any kind -- are outlawed at gun shows by the
McCain-Lieberman bill, unless the sale is pre-registered with the
federal government; real crimes are totally unaffected; and your friends
in the federal government take over full control of gun shows -- which
have been previously free of government infringement for more than 200
years.

Please write your local news outlet and politely request a correction.

auspec

(05/22/2001; 20:36:09 MDT - Msg ID: 54361)

Leigh?

Hello Lady Leigh! You surely had some insight when you panicked over giving up your password, thanks for the tipoff. It would probably have been overlooked otherwise. What else can you expect among "friends"? I am still waiting for those other 1 or 2 imposters to come clean, no consciences, eh?? I secretely suspect it was HBM that posted one of those messages, out of the closet now!
You would think it wouldn't take an entire century to have yoyr posting privileges restored, no? What are they treating you as a common criminal? Need fingerprints or something for restoration? Have to buy 30 pieces of gold?? anyway, you are among friends and no more than 1/2 of us really believe those posts came from you.
Black Blade: Sure glad you're not on the 'jury of my peers'. Pretty tough stuff with all that 'spamming' and "legal action'. You've been watching too much Judge Judy.
Anyway, pardon my irreverence BB, you do a yeoman's job on site and it is greatly appreciated! Sometimes we suffer from too many or not enough brews. Gotta find that happy medium.
Leigh, please come back soon and accept my apology {clintonesque as it may be}. If this one is unsatisfactory, will start another one.
auspec

jinx44

(05/22/2001; 20:37:24 MDT - Msg ID: 54362)

John McCain--Manchurian Candidate

I am from AZ and let me tell you about McCain. He is a false hero, siver-spooned, liberal, fascist, gun-grabbing Democratic secret agent. He is a sinful man that should show his true colors with the democrats, if not the Red Chinese. Don't be duped by his rhetoric. He is false to the core.

SteveH

(05/22/2001; 20:39:24 MDT - Msg ID: 54363)

repost

www.kitco.comDate: Tue May 22 2001 21:49
Fingerprint42 (From Steve Saville on gold) ID#197382:
Copyright � 2000 Fingerprint42/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Friday's break in the S&P500/XAU 'bubble trend' may be one of the most important events in years
from a technical perspective, but we doubt that you will read about it anywhere else. Where are we
now? We've argued quite persistently over the past 6 months that the US credit bubble remains in
tact. If the current US bubble ends in a similar way to other great bubbles of the past 100 years,
then its bursting will be preceded by a period of substantial gold price strength and currency
( US$ ) weakness. We have thought, for the past few years, that the greatest opportunity to make
money from gold investments would occur during the final stage of the credit bubble's existence.
Going by historical precedent the final stage of the bubble's existence would last for about 2 years.
So, using the October 2000 peak in both the S&P500/XAU ratio and the Dollar Index as the starting
point of this final stage we can make a rough projection that the US credit bubble will end during
the second half of 2002. However, the current bubble is unprecedented in three important ways.
Firstly, valuations and debt levels have reached greater heights than ever before. Secondly, public
participation in this bubble is far greater than ever before. Thirdly, whereas the monetary
authorities made a conscious attempt to deflate the previous great bubbles, US officialdom is
working hard to perpetuate the current bubble. Therefore, as is generally the case with financial
market analyses, we should have no preconceived ideas as to when the bubble will end. The inability
of the Dollar Index to exceed its October 2000 peak over the past several months, combined with
the 6-month rally in gold stocks and the recent bounce in the gold price, strongly suggest that we
are in the final phase of the bubble. We are yet to see the Dollar break sharply lower, but the
action in the gold market suggests that such a break will happen during the next few weeks. There
are often important differences between the current market situation and prior situations that
invalidate any comparisons. However, as long as these differences are understood then the
historical performances of markets can sometimes provide clues as to where we are currently
headed. In looking for a historical parallel to the present we came up with early-1987 ( see chart
below ) . If we are right and this is the final phase of the credit bubble then we should expect to see
the gold sector, the overall stock market and long-term interest rates all trending higher over the
next several months.
http://www.speculative-investor.com

Cavan Man

(05/22/2001; 21:18:33 MDT - Msg ID: 54364)

jinx44

He may be that and more my friend but he has gone where you have never been.

Leigh

(05/22/2001; 21:28:40 MDT - Msg ID: 54365)

auspec

Auspec, I'm here lurking! Thank you for your kind concern. I was shocked and saddened the other night and thought about never coming back, but I've dished out plenty of sarcasm before and ought to be able to take it. Just give me some time.

Novice Bear and others, thank you for your kind words.

JMB, you're a real pal. I'll remember you.

megatron

(05/22/2001; 21:37:03 MDT - Msg ID: 54366)

Leigh

Not coming back would not be in your or our best interests.
Some of it was kinda funny,though. We need your input here.

turbohawg

(05/22/2001; 22:08:25 MDT - Msg ID: 54367)

Jinx44

>jinx44 (05/22/01; 20:37:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 54362)
John McCain--Manchurian Candidate
I am from AZ and let me tell you about McCain. He is a false hero, siver-spooned, liberal, fascist, gun-grabbing Democratic secret agent. He is a sinful man that should show his true colors with the democrats, if not the Red Chinese. Don't be duped by his rhetoric. He is false to the core.<

Aw c'mon ... tell us what you REALLY think.

You know, I was just wondering about you the other day. Glad to see you're still around.

hAug

Black Blade

(05/22/2001; 22:28:12 MDT - Msg ID: 54368)

auspec - imposters

Actually it is quite easy to back track most anyone on the internet. Fortunately most sites have privacy as a matter of policy. The legal aspects are if there is slanderous or libelous posts, or attempts at fraudalent activity for example. Many who have tried to manipulate stock prices for example have been caught and prosecuted. Also lawsuits against posters who have posted false malicious articles defaming other individuals without basis in fact have also ended up in court. There have also been cases where individuals have had their access privileges to a local ISP withdrawn. The internet isn't really an anonomous forum. There are ways around it, however, there are double blind anonomous sites where an individual could make it difficult to be discovered. Even so, it is not impossible to track down anyone. Even hackers and those who plant viruses find it difficult to remain completely anonomous anymore.

Anyway, I had done the same by inadvertently posting my code once, and it became extremely disruptive. The same had happened to Journeyman and Zenidea I believe. Anyway, I'm glad that Lady Leigh did not bail out on us. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/22/2001; 22:48:18 MDT - Msg ID: 54369)

RE: MO VER MEG - #54357

Meaning of the Black Blade?(1) Black Blade is a fictional (or is it!) secret Japanese society with designs on world domination by any means including murder, coercion, extortion, manipulation of the world's economies, etc. (2) Black Blade is also the name of a song by Blue Oyster Cult based on a book about a evil black sword that controlled those who possessed it. I chose the handle because gold has been surrounded by economic forces that seek to dominate and control it and also because of the mystical hold gold has on many of those who possess it. Much like the Black Blade. In another sense gold is different because it liberates those who possess it and in reality it can't be truly dominated either.

Besides, I was reading the book by the same name and thought the name was really cool ;-) Lots of hidden meanings and mystery. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/22/2001; 23:08:03 MDT - Msg ID: 54370)

Analysts: Gold Rise May Not Hold

http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt.jsp?cat=USMARKET&src=201&feed=reu§ion=news≠ws_id=reu-129034&date=20010522&alias=/alias/money/cm/nw
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors considering a jump into gold mining shares after the yellow metal ran to 15-month highs on Monday should probably think again. Not only do many question whether the gains will hold but some producers will not benefit from the rise because they've already locked in sales at lower prices, U.S. analysts said. "These stocks need a higher gold price to justify their valuations," said Credit Suisse First Boston analyst Robert Doyle. This rally, like several speculative rallies in the past few years, does not have the legs to last, say analysts. "There is a good chance this rally will stagger," said HSBC Securities analyst Victor Flores. "If the rally does not last, you will see profit taking."

Black Blade: I love analysts! They are usually wrong and are always late to the party. They completely missed the rally when the WA was announced, they completely missed this last rally, they even missed the collapse of gold prices in 1996. They don't have a clue as to what they are talking about. A very big plus in favor of any investment is that by ignoring the analysts and paying attention to the "Big Picture" one usually outperforms the analysts. Besides, if analysts were so good at what they do, why aren't they all rich and retired? Usually doing the opposite of what the analysts say more often than not is usually a profitable venture.

Black Blade

(05/22/2001; 23:23:06 MDT - Msg ID: 54371)

The Gold Game: Reasons for the Short Squeeze

http://www.thestreet.com/comment/openbook/1435505.html
Snippit:

First, and most simply, gold is going up because commodity prices rise when inflationary expectations are revised upward. Those revisions are made in the minds of both longs (who buy) and shorts (who cover). In a deflation, cash is king. In a reinflation, cash is trash. It's true in the gold markets no less than it's true in the stock market or anywhere else. Indeed, it's truer in the market for gold -- the most monetary commodity of all -- than anywhere else.

Second, the insolvency of Centaur Mining and Exploration two weeks ago set off a scramble by the overhedged company's creditors to limit their exposure by buying gold. But this was not an isolated event. Over the past two years, gold has traded at its lowest price in more than two decades -- the direct result of severe monetary deflation. The global gold-mining industry is simply not profitable at these prices. Marginal producers have had to go out of business.

Third, and directly related to the previous point, gold is scarcer today than ever. That's because at deflated prices, it's not profitable to bring reserves out of the ground or to explore for new reserves. And increasingly severe environmental restrictions on mining operations only make matters worse. As a result, annual gold production is currently less than the amount required just for jewelry manufacture -- that doesn't even begin to include other sources of demand for gold. With gold this scarce, even small shifts in the supply-and-demand balance can trigger important moves -- and send the shorts scurrying for cover.

Fourth, one of the key reasons for being short gold has been removed -- and it is here that you will see the gears of finance meshing at their tightest. The reason is that high short-term interest rates make it attractive to short gold, and low rates make it necessary to cover. With the Fed's 250 basis points of rate-cutting this year, short-term rates have collapsed -- and so has the incentive to be short gold.

Black Blade: The whole article is quite interesting. Goes into lease rates and inferences toward the unwinding of the gold carry trade. Don Luskin has been writing a whole series of gold articles lately, generally they have been fair.

beesting

(05/22/2001; 23:41:46 MDT - Msg ID: 54372)

This Article Looks Like Bullion Bankers are Trying to Solicit Investors?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7BD490CA2D%2DE5D9%2D4C65%2D8F67%2D3DCEE6B7BE78%7D Check it out, bedtime for me.......beesting.

Black Blade

(05/22/2001; 23:54:44 MDT - Msg ID: 54373)

Gephardt Statement on the Energy Crisis in the West

http://politics.yahoo.com/politics/features/us_newswire/20015/0522-149.html
Snippit:

"In California and the rest of the West, the problems with gas and electricity are quite simply out of Control. California has already had six days of rolling blackouts with at least 30 more expected before the end of summer. The price for wholesale electricity has jumped from $30 per megawatt-hour to spikes as high as nearly $2,000 per megawatt-hour, in just the last year. And residential electricity rates for some consumers went up by 60% just last week.

"Lori Gray is a 39 year old woman who suffers from epilepsy and asthma, and is blind. She says losing electricity is not an inconvenience. It's not even a hardship. It's a matter of life and death. "She relies on several machines, which use electricity to give her asthma medication, open her door by remote control, and relay emergency phone numbers. If the power fails, it could have a catastrophic impact. She told the
LA Times, 'I spend my days worrying. I worry over when the next blackout will come. I worry about my friends..who rely on their respirators.... This is no way to live.'

Black Blade: These people voted for exactly what they got. They voted to not build power plants, they voted for high energy costs, they voted to not have any energy infrastructure built near their cities, and they voted to "save" the environment. Why are they sniveling?

"Tommy Bong is a retired Marin County hippie. He suffers from reality. He says that losing electricity is not an inconvenience, however, his hydroponics garden is suffering as the sodium halide lamps hanging over his indoor cannabis garden won't work without electricity. He relies on electric timers and several banks of grow lamps. If the power fails, it could have a catastrophic impact. He told the LA Times, 'I spend my days worrying. I worry over when the next blackout will come. I worry about my friends..who rely on my cannabis.... This is no way to live.'

The energy crisis will have wide ranging effects on the California economy. Their number one cash crop is at risk. We must all sacrifice across the west so that our Californian brothers and sisters like Tommy Bong can have "cheap energy" so that he can do his part to support the California economy. We must sacrifice the convenience of stable energy prices and put ourselves and our families at risk so upstanding entrepreneurs like Tommy can have it a bit easier at our expense. Even though he voted for exactly what he got. BTW, the only gold that Tommy has, is from Acapulco.

Black Blade

(05/23/2001; 00:06:48 MDT - Msg ID: 54374)

Cheney pushes energy plan to keep US economy strong

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010522/n2292298.html
Snippit:

WASHINGTON, May 22 (Reuters) - U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney said Tuesday that the nation's energy problem was a `storm cloud on the horizon'' threatening the economy unless the White House's new energy plan was adopted.

Black Blade: The article focuses more on Nuclear power, however, the point is that the economic expansion of the 1990's was fueled by "cheap" energy. There will be no more "cheap" energy. The "Gravy Train" just left town. The effects of the expanding energy crisis will be strongly felt throughout the economy going forward, and I suspect that it will last several years. Still, there is a "Golden" opportunity to load up the "Golden" lifeboats before launching. A couple of nights ago, I feared that it might have been time. A slight reprieve perhaps.
View Yesterday's Discussion.

Black Blade

(05/23/2001; 00:11:40 MDT - Msg ID: 54375)

Natural Gas Prices Help Some States

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20010522/bs/gas_tax_windfall_2.html
Snippit:

OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) - Energy-rich states whose economies suffered during the oil bust of the mid-1980s are riding high again thanks to a sharp rise in natural gas prices. Oklahoma, New Mexico, Texas, Wyoming and Louisiana are enjoying a windfall in tax revenue.

Black Blade: For every loser, there's a winner.

SHIFTY

(05/23/2001; 00:13:29 MDT - Msg ID: 54376)

Centennial Precious Metals Inc.

ThanksI was able to take some gold off the market today with the help of our host and Marie. :-)
I was pleasantly surprised at the prices!
Thank you

$hifty

PS "The check is in the mail ! "

Always wanted to say that!
;-)

Black Blade

(05/23/2001; 00:20:41 MDT - Msg ID: 54377)

Poll: California Energy Crisis Now 'Very Serious'

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010522/ts/utilities_california_poll_dc_1.html
Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Californians are increasingly fearful of their state's energy crisis, with more than three out of four residents saying it now ``very serious'' and most blaming the problem on market manipulation by energy companies, according to a poll released Tuesday.

Black Blade: Not long ago, most of the Grasshoppers thought that the energy crisis was contrived by the energy Robber Barons. Now sentiment is changing. Unfortunately it is too late to reverse the years of neglect to the power grid and infrastructure. The western economy looks to be in severe danger. A bit of gold for the portfolio perhaps.

Black Blade

(05/23/2001; 00:26:23 MDT - Msg ID: 54378)

Barrick Removed From Wish-List

http://www.wallstreetwishlist.com/Whatsnew/may21w/may21w.htmlReason? Large number of outstanding positions of forward sold gold and the fact that higher gold prices work against Barrick. Also profit picture is looking ugly for Barrick. No way to profit from a rising gold price!

The Invisible Hand

(05/23/2001; 00:26:49 MDT - Msg ID: 54379)

Wait a moment!

http://www.newyorkpost.com/business/30953.htmFrom the conclusion of the article quoted in:
Tree in the Forest (5/22/01; 09:41:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 54325)
Crudele's explanation of last Wednesday's SM pop
" If Greenspan's attempts to re-create the bubble fail - or even become too transparent - the integrity of our entire monetary system could come into question.
You might want to keep your fingers crossed that this works. "
Is he saying that the monetary system could (heaven forbid!) fail and that gold could be sovereign? Let's keep our fingers crossed that he is predicting this future.

Black Blade

(05/23/2001; 00:31:18 MDT - Msg ID: 54380)

Just a Leeeteel Joke

http://www.latinbayarea.com/images/mexbabyfood.jpgGotta get some sleep, so here's something to sleep on. Stradmaster, I don't recommend this new diet for your new addition ;-)

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/23/2001; 00:32:45 MDT - Msg ID: 54381)

Correction

That should be "Mexican Baby Food."

Netking

(05/23/2001; 02:06:00 MDT - Msg ID: 54382)

Gold Syndicate

Breaking News ...

Information is pouring in from all over and from various sources that there is indeed a Gold Syndicate (part of which may be a de-facto situation) that is taking on the Gold Cartel. The Gold Syndicate knows that what GATA is claiming is true and they believe that Frank Veneroso's gold loan numbers of 10,000 to 16,000 tonnes (two to three times what the industry acknowledges) are correct.

This Gold Syndicate includes one of the most famous names in Wall Street history, the Chinese, and aggressive players from the Middle East. The gold market is so tight that I have been told by the best of sources that some of these interests may soon resort to buying up gold reserves in the ground from gold producers. The Gold Syndicate has been accumulating for a few months now, but when the Dow Jones story about GATA broke two weeks, they felt it was time to be more aggressive, for they know that GATA has the goods on the collusive cabal shorts. That is all I can get into for the moment. What this means is that the Gold Cartel is in big trouble.

Netking

(05/23/2001; 02:42:24 MDT - Msg ID: 54383)

The previous posts source; Dave Morgan's www.silver-investor.com Cheers NK

abudahhab

(05/23/2001; 03:40:11 MDT - Msg ID: 54384)

What Will Break The Cycle of Abuse?

The bubble burst. Long live the bubble!

Allan "the abuser" Greenspan

He forces you to be out of interest bearing deposits, into the $US, into the stock market, out of gold and commodities.

We are truly living in the twilight zone.

Simply Me

(05/23/2001; 03:46:47 MDT - Msg ID: 54385)

@uponroof RE: Ceramic High-Temp Superconductors

http://materials.binghamton.edu/labs/super/superc.htmlDon't mean to burst your bubble. But if there's not enough silver for superconducting electric transmission lines, there may also be a ceramic superconductor around just waiting to become cost effective. The above link goes to some information about an yttrium, barium, cupric oxide concoction that produced high-temp superconductive ceramic that's been around for about twenty years. I remember reading about the discovery in the 80's. It's a college lab experiment now. I'm not up on the latest news in this sector, but I'll bet some advances have been made since then.
I hate to think of all that beautiful silver locked up in electrical lines.
simply

Simply Me

(05/23/2001; 04:09:04 MDT - Msg ID: 54386)

@Netking

from your post Netking (5/23/01; 02:06:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 54382)
Gold Syndicate

"The gold market is so tight that I have been told by the best of sources that some of these interests may soon resort to buying up gold reserves in the ground from gold producers."

Does this mean there is a Gold Syndicate buying paper contracts on the trading floor and buying mining futures? If so, they know cannot result in delivery? They are already very long physical gold and this move is the Ace they have been holding up their collective sleeves until the Gold Cartel had played out most of it's hand. If this is true, then watch the prices of paper and physical part ways soon...and don't cry for those big paper contract holders when the market defaults. They'll be sittin' pretty on piles of re-valued REAL gold.

If my suppositions are wrong, please correct me. I'm not a paper trader myself.
simply

Netking

(05/23/2001; 04:28:21 MDT - Msg ID: 54387)

Silver - Outlook. . . .Lookup. . . .Look Out !

G'Morning to those awake(can't sleep Sir Black Blade after thinkin about the baby food!)

Clif Droke's on Silver:

The short-term outlook for silver is turning from bearish to bullish. Look for an impressive rise in silver futures beginning sometime this summer (July would be out best "guesstimate"). A well-defined declining wedge pattern can be seen in the daily continuous contract for silver futures.

Concerning silver's outlook, we quote the following from the April 2001 edition of The Moneychanger newsletter:

"Following the technical method of W.D. Gann, [James Flanagan, editor of Past Present Futures] looks for a big move to make big money, and he's landed on silver.

"More accurately, he landed on silver in 1993, and has been watching for a big move since then. 'Our journey into past history and our belief that it repeats has brought us to one of the most extraordinary crossroads in history. It has been three generations since we have experienced a decline of the magnitude we are seeing in the silver market. I believe it is reasonable to suggest that this final low in silver will be equivalent to the precious metals what the 1932 low was to the stock market.'
"His argument involves cycles in the silver market running back to 1861. Eight out of 12 lows were made in the first or second year in the decade. Silver, 42% off its 1998 high, will soon make its thirteenth major low in 1861. Comparing the duration of the cycles, he expects a bottom higher than the 1991 and 1993 $3.50 lows.

"Mr. Flanagan also expects a shift away from equities and into commodities, viewing their performances as 'flip sides of the same equation.' During this expected commodity bull market, he expects silver to be one of the 'glamour' commodities."
------------------------------------------------------------
Sir Simply Me; Gold is Money, Paper is an IOU. These people are not what you would call "paper traders".

LeSin

(05/23/2001; 04:39:57 MDT - Msg ID: 54388)

Washington Accord - to be Extended - Say the French CB

EXCLUSIVE:French Ctrl Bank Sees Gold Agreement Extended
By Selim Atalay
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

05/22/2001
Dow Jones Commodities Service
(Copyright (c) 2001, Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)
ISTANBUL -(Dow Jones)- The Washington Accord, an agreement signed between 15 of Europe's central banks in September 1999 to limit gold sales, is likely to be extended when it expires in September 2004, according to Herve Ferhani, head of Foreign Exchange at Banque de France.
"It's logical to see it extended," the central banker told Dow Jones Newswires in an interview Tuesday from the London Bullion Market Association Precious Metals Conference. He added that the view reflects that of the French central bank, not all of those involved in the deal.
The agreement, which limits the banks' total gold sales to 2,000 tons over five years, was signed by the European Central Bank and the central banks of the 11 original euro-zone members, the U.K., Sweden and Switzerland.
Ferhani said the reason for the pact is transparency, not an attempt control gold prices. "I don't think the central banks are in the business of governing the gold market," he said.
It is too early to speculate on possible amendments to the agreement because market conditions could change in the next three years, Ferhani said.
"At this point we have to wait to acknowledge any changes," the central banker said.
"If the agreement is to be renewed, market conditions have to be in favor of a renewal," he added. "Until September 2004, there's plenty of time to decide."
Ferhani said he isn't aware of any participants in the agreement that don't want to extend the agreement. He added that the agreement would be open to newcomers.
"Practically any one can join," Ferhani said. "But others beyond the signatories are also following policies that are in line (with the signatories)."
The central banks of the U.K., the Netherlands, Switzerland and Austria have all sold gold under the agreement so far.
-By Selim Atalay, Dow Jones Newswires; +90212 2313355; selim.atalay@dowjones.com

The Invisible Hand

(05/23/2001; 05:18:55 MDT - Msg ID: 54389)

Inflation, not short squeeze, is cause of gold's present rally

http://news.excite.com/news/r/010521/10/markets-goldFrom a recent Istanbul conference, apparently ignoring the carry trade (my apologies if this has been posted before):
�
The latest cut in U.S. interest rates has sparked inflation worries, and there are a few old-timers who still see a role for gold as an inflation hedge," a trader said.
"Inflation fears have clearly been (absorbed) by the market. And you can see the results now," added another.

The Invisible Hand

(05/23/2001; 05:53:20 MDT - Msg ID: 54390)

ECB leaves rates unchanged

http://de.biz.yahoo.com/010523/71/1mhve.htmlas expected

The Invisible Hand

(05/23/2001; 06:11:52 MDT - Msg ID: 54391)

Gold, Prosperity, Freedom and the ... The Visible Hands

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/corrigan052301.html"The Work of Men's Hands" by Sean Corrigan
�..
Whether or not Gold does burst its Paper chains, we shall see, though conditions are certainly more propitious than for some little while. At the least its attempt will have done us a service if it reminds us that credit is not capital, money is not something to which the State gives rise, and that no mortal Man - not even a supposed prodigy like Greenspan - should wield so much influence over what we employ every time we buy and sell and save and spend.

Far from being a barbarous relic, we should realize that Gold, in its place at the centre of a truly free market, is a better guarantee of our prosperity and freedom than any amount of green ink.

FredBear

(05/23/2001; 06:26:31 MDT - Msg ID: 54392)

Greenspan Races Against ---- No One

Let's visualise the situation as a car race. Reigning world champion Greenspan is pushing his car's engine to the limit. The strain on the engine is enormous and totally unsustainable, yet he continues to press his foot so hard on the gas pedal it is threatening to go right through the floor. Because he is so determined to push his engine to the limit and win the race, he fails to notice there has been an accident and that the organizers have TERMINATED the competition. Thus, he is ruining his car's engine and endangering the other competitors, who have seen the signals and slowed down, even though HE CANNOT POSSIBLE WIN THE RACE.

From Marc Faber, Doom and Gloom Report

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/23/2001; 06:38:12 MDT - Msg ID: 54393)

The Invisible Hand # 54390 (ECB leaves rates unchanged)

Sir

I just overheard some discussion on CNBC that without a reduction in rates by the ECB that the Euro would soon be testing its all time lows.

Such strange talk. Sounds like they are saying that the way to strengthen our currency is to weaken it by flooding the market with more of the same. Wouldn't this only work (and then only in the short run) for a currency which has reserve status?

I tell you folks, the Euro is winning this game of chicken.

Respectfully,

HBM

The Invisible Hand

(05/23/2001; 06:38:13 MDT - Msg ID: 54394)

ECB Reuters article in English

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/010523/80/brag9.htmlECB keeps interest rates unchanged as expected
By Jonathan Gould
FRANKFURT (Reuters) -
�
GROWTH, INFLATION SET POLICY DILEMMA

Earlier on Wednesday, Germany said growth in the first quarter slowed to an annual rate of 2.0 percent, the lowest since the third quarter of 1999 as capital investments declined and private and public consumption stagnated. Also France, so far the single currency bloc's main growth engine, appeared to sputter with Wednesday's first quarter GDP growth report coming below expectations at 0.5 percent quarter- on-quarter and fourth quarter growth revised down. But there were also signals this week that German inflation was set to climb to fresh highs in May, while Italian price data also pointed to a likely rise in euro zone inflation, highlighting the policy dilemma ECB President Wim Duisenberg and his colleagues face at the moment. Still, the ECB proved with its May 10 cut that it was prepared to lower borrowing costs despite high current inflation, arguing that its decisions focused on future price pressures, which it expects to fade away once the present "temporary" spike had passed.
�

====
Do I understand this last paragraph correctly as saying that the ECB (are they any better than Greenspan?) lowered interest rates on May 10 because it expects the present inflationary spike (in Europe) to be only temporary? Does this then imply that the greenback will soon return to its intrinsic value (one of the Ladies at this Forum recently said that it would be by the end of the month), that the value of the euro will then increase and that inflation will thereby be a thing of the past in Euroland?

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/23/2001; 06:45:56 MDT - Msg ID: 54395)

Netking # 54387

Sir

I believe "Lady Simply ME" is a rather young grandmother or at least soon to be. Just thought you like to know.

Very respectfully,

HBM

PS: Your perspectives are much appreciated. Please keep them coming.

Novice Bear

(05/23/2001; 07:21:19 MDT - Msg ID: 54396)

Leigh

Hi Leigh,

I can totally relate to your hesitance to begin
re-posting again. Don't feel like you have to post
a reply to my message. :-)

Having your good name associated with off-color
humor is hard to endure isn't it...I guess some
don't understand this.

Hill Billy Mitchell, I sincerely doubt you are responsible for any of the imposter messages...really appreciate your purity of character on the forum.

Best wishes, Novice Bear (aka "Lea")

The Invisible Hand

(05/23/2001; 07:21:55 MDT - Msg ID: 54397)

BOE: "The dollar should be falling like a stone"

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,3604,493651,00.html...
Don't worry if you're baffled by this, because a lot of clever people in the world of economics are baffled by it as well. "The rise in the dollar since February has been puzzling", the Bank of England said in its inflation report last week, "as it has been associated with falls in US growth forecasts and short-term interest rate expectations relative to some of its major trading partners". Loose translation: all our models say the dollar should be falling like a stone but for some reason it is going up.
...

Journeyman

(05/23/2001; 07:22:26 MDT - Msg ID: 54398)

You can't control demand - - - so work on demand

"There will be a $1 to $1.3 billion buy-back of 30 yr. bonds
[which will effect the supply]." -Rick Santelli, CNBC, May 23,
2001, 09:13:57"

Regards,
J.

Journeyman

(05/23/2001; 07:23:32 MDT - Msg ID: 54399)

You can't control demand - - - so work on SUPPLY!

Ah, let's try that again.

"There will be a $1 to $1.3 billion buy-back of 30 yr. bonds
[which will effect the supply]." -Rick Santelli, CNBC, May 23,
2001, 09:13:57"

Regards,
J.

jinx44

(05/23/2001; 07:45:29 MDT - Msg ID: 54400)

Sennholz on the Euro

Hans F. Sennholz

The Languishing Euro

In ages past the money markets of the world used to obey well-known classical rules. Whenever a country suffered substantial current-account deficits, for instance, its currency faced devaluation pressures. In recent months this rule seems to have lost its force. The United States
suffers huge deficits while the dollar sparkles in strength. And while European countries report large trade surpluses, which used to signal currency strength, the euro actually lingers in weakness. It now is worth less than 90 cents to the dollar.

Interest rates quoted by central banks used to affect the currency exchange rates. After all, interest rates guide credit markets, influence goods prices and thereby move trade and commerce. A central bank that sets its rates below market rates used to weaken its currency. Yet, since
the beginning of this year, the Federal Reserve System lowered its rates five times, but the dollar has retained its old luster.

Economic expansion used to affect the exchange rates. Rapid economic growth not only attracted foreign investments but also exerted a downward pressure on goods prices and an upward pressure on the currency. But
although European growth rates presently may be higher than the U.S. rate, they obviously fail to give support to the euro.

The currency markets seem to follow new rules, new cause-and-effect relations that confuse many economic analysts. The confusion is heightened by the heavy losses suffered on euro investments, which have bred deep distrust not only in the euro currency but also in European ability to reform and adjust. It may take many months, perhaps years, of
euro stability to recover a margin of trust. Some confused analysts now annunciate the very opposite of the classical rules. If only the European Central Bank would lower its rates in concert with the Federal Reserve System, they contend, the euro would rise and sparkle like the dollar.
According to these market analysts, to imitate the Fed and expand credit is to give strength to a currency!

Actually, there are two important reasons that are keeping the euro in a state of chronic depression. First, the governments of the eleven euro-zone countries are using the introduction of the common currency as an opportunity to seize and confiscate funds acquired illegally. They are
determined not only to prevent money laundering, that is, making illegally acquired cash look as if it were acquired legally, but also to obstruct or even close the black markets, that is, illicit markets in which goods are
sold in violation of tax laws, price controls or other restrictions. All euro-zone commercial banks, which are scheduled to handle the exchange of new money for old, therefore, are required to report every exchange of
"large sums" to the authorities. No matter what they may report, many savers of illicit savings, no matter how small, may be fearful of being reported by name. They are seeking to avoid criminal prosecution and loss of funds by spending their savings or converting them into dollars. The
euro is an unintended casualty.

Second, there are millions of people outside the euro-zone who are holding European currencies. Merchants, farmers and workers in Poland, Croatia, Slovenia, Hungary, and other European countries have savings in trusted German marks. They may have heard rumors about the coming
currency reform that will render their savings worthless, but may not know where to exchange them for new euros. Their own governments may want to seize them, which are scarce foreign reserves, or want to tax them for
reasons of tax evasion. Helplessness and fear may force the savers either to spend their holdings or convert them into dollars. The conversion itself is bound to be rather costly as foreign commercial banks will have to work through euro banks and report the names of depositors to euro authorities. Only black markets which command high risk premiums do handle the conversion without a question.

It is difficult to estimate the magnitude of both sources of funds seeking exchange. The amounts involved are huge. The black-market economy of the euro zone has been estimated at some 16 percent of official gross domestic product (GDP). As it cannot use the banking system and is
forced to use cash only, its stock of cash is bound to be way above the 16 percent of illegal GDP. If we assume it to be only 25 percent, with some 256 billion euros of bank notes presently in circulation (European Central Bank, Monthly Bulletin, April 2001), some 64 billion euros are serving the black market . A flight into dollars of such amounts alone would depress the euro. In addition, the old stock of convertible money held in the non-euro parts of Europe is estimated at some 50 billion euros. (The
outstanding German mark holdings alone are estimated between 30 and 45 billion.) Altogether the stock of European currency seeking U.S. dollars is significant; it is bound to depress the euro and lift the dollar.

The poor reception of the European currency could have been avoided if the euro countries would have conducted a simple currency reform without waging war on money laundering and black-marketeering. The war is a never-ending conflict that ensues from the very nature of political authority over the economic lives of individuals. No government has ever won it, however brutally it waged its battles. But such wars do irreparable harm to economic life and social cooperation. Since January 1, 1999 when the euro was launched, the conflict has cast much doubt on European productivity and the future of the euro. Worst of all, it may inflict immeasurable harm on millions of individuals throughout Europe whose savings may become worthless or who are forced to exchange them at steep black market discounts. The weak euro and the strong dollar are
visible symptoms of this damage.

A simple currency reform would have exchanged old notes and coins for new currency without spreading uncertainty and fear. It would have avoided the three-year delay between the currency launch and the issue of notes and coins and, above all, have extended the two-month grace period of
exchange to five or 10 years. It is inconsiderate and even harsh to demand that many millions of individuals deposit their old money in euro banks and exchange them for new euro notes within the short period of two months, in January and February of 2002. A simple reform would have been mindful of uninformed individuals in Poland, Croatia, Slovena, Hungary and any other country of the world.

It undoubtedly is too late to speed up the exchange process, but the euro governments could at least rescind their reporting and naming orders and allow commercial banks to handle the exchange without acting as policemen.
Such a rescission would lend instant strength to the euro and attract new capital to the euro economy. The European Central Bank (ECB) could develop clear exchange procedures for foreigners wherever they may live, procedures that would allow individuals to exchange their savings at their
convenience. It also could devise procedures that would allow the new money quickly to penetrate the black markets inside and outside the euro-zone, which would reduce the extraordinary demand for U.S. dollars and remove the pressures on the euro.

Instead of limping after the Fed which forever is trailing the business cycle, the European Central Bank could lead the way in averting the cycles by attaching its policy to the anchor of the ages, to gold. Economic cycles made their appearance with the dawn of central banking and fiat
money and have disrupted economic life ever since. There never has been a shortage of gold; but the world frequently has suffered from an abundance of paper money, which in many countries is counted by the thousands and millions of units.

The euro attached to gold immediately would overshadow the U.S. dollar which is managed by seven political appointees. Instead of lingering at deep discounts to the dollar, a gold euro would soon rise to a premium and
may even replace the dollar as the world's primary reserve currency. But such a policy undoubtedly is alien to the Governing Council of the ECB as it is to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. Guided by theories of central banking and credit management, both spurn the use of
gold. It may take many more business cycles and monetary crises to appreciate the stability of gold. Experience may be the only teacher.

Hans F. Sennholz
www.sennholz.com

Journeyman

(05/23/2001; 07:55:47 MDT - Msg ID: 54401)

BIGfloat update - - - from England posted by The Invisible Hand msg#: 54397 @ORO, ALL

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,3604,493651,00.html
The Invisible Hand posted the above link just below in his message entitled The BOE: "The dollar should be falling like a stone"

Excellent find Invisible!!

It synopsises the dollar's precarious situation the best that I've seen.

It also poses the question as to why the dollar isn't falling - - - yet. And the question as to when it does, will it be a soft landing.

Hi ORO!

Is the dollar strength, implying a short supply, due partially to the euro taking over even more previously dollar debt?

Regards,
Journeyman

jinx44

(05/23/2001; 08:00:55 MDT - Msg ID: 54402)

The plastic, portable McCain

Cavan Man--your 54364---sorry I didn't get to it last night.

You are so right. I have never been plagued with self-serving political ambitions, gone to DC to steal from the public trough, or abandoned my wife for a younger richer woman who would serve my self-interest. If you will read about McCains traitorous behavior as a POW, it SHOULD make you sick. He has deftly crafted his image to conform to what the gullible public wants to believe. While McCain was eating steak in the flyboy mess, I was pounding it out on the ground humping my ruck, taking and holding ground. He never talks about the reports of his treasonous acts that his fellow POW's complained to the Pentagon about.

Don't believe what I say, but don't believe what the democratic senator from AZ says either. I don't make any money from lying to the public, McCain does.

All the best to you Sir,

Zenidea

(05/23/2001; 08:05:21 MDT - Msg ID: 54403)

Black Blade

Just a quick question buddy that I hope you may kindly respond as spontainiously a you can please re: the energy
difficulties of the USA that I might add are awash in the Aussie media.
Given that Mr Bush has openly expressed his reservations
regarding the matter and outlined some remedial options in the interim to dissolve this issue.
"What given that Canada may well be an optioned sourse of energy would you intuitively think the Canadian $ might do in responce as a percentage of all your intuitional gut
feels?.
All... I would hazard a guess that it was not HK that helped any recent spike in Au. If any of you know me and my travels ? . I bet the knomes of Shanghai were the moon behind the tide on that one. The Iron curtain like the moons shadow
on any walk in any valley diverged reads the history of politics does it not ?. Immmmmmmmmm. There is a hell of a lot more to this story than meets the eye and it does not just involve Gold. Its the politic's of the military stategic metals in the rest of the periodic table and who has what that really concerns me , albeit paper promises or not yes ?.

Al Fulchino

(05/23/2001; 08:30:04 MDT - Msg ID: 54404)

jinx44 (05/22/01; 20:37:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 54362)

Jinx,

Your post about McCain, being a Manchurian candidate, is in my my mind, 100% accurate. Nothing is as it seems as they say. It is pretty harsh to utter these words, but I remember when Michael Dukakis was running for President, not many in the national media, nor many in the liberal ranks would pay much heed to the Massachusetts folks who were trying to wake them up. In fact, many in Arkansas tried to point things out about another fellow, didn't they. I have said before that so much of what we believe is what we "choose" to believe. And there are many in our own country who want someone to step forward who will put a stop to "father figures" "conservatives" "role models" and things like good institutions such as "the boy scouts". The trouble often is that they often find that their blatant candidates cannot win often enough, so they usher in someone that is "seemingly" from the other side. Do not doubt for a minute that it "IS" possible for an enemy such as the Communists to have worked on a fellow such as Mr McCain and "released" him for a reason. And another person would not have been released, because as they would say,"he is incorrigible" in his ideals and respect for morals, freedom, and the antithesis to the power of that state, any state.

I can remember telling my wife early on that Mr McCain was an angry man. I have never seen him in an outburst, yet I have carefully watched his mannerisms. He is a seething cauldron inside. It is true that he has been through much and for that reason many will say we should look the other way. I say nyet. Many have been through much, yet we can see differences in them. Some shine and warm our hearts, others leave us cold and afraid even to be around.We all have been through much. And that much can make two people different. It is all based on their inner adherences.

Bless you for you observations and service to our country. I thank you.

Carl H

(05/23/2001; 08:58:41 MDT - Msg ID: 54405)

Followup on superconducting transmission lines.

I called a friend who did superconductivity research for his Ph.D. to ask him about what current density superconductors can typically handle. He was reluctant to be pinned down on this point because it varies a lot. It is typically a strong function of temperature (decreasing with increasing temperature).

After doing some looking on the web at different papers on superconductivity, it appears that the _maximum_ current densities would allow for the current carried by a large transmission line to be carried in less than a square cm.

I also found out that the superconductivity temperature record is 138K which is about -135C. So they still have a LONG ways to go on the temperature front before the materials become practical.

Sierra Madre

(05/23/2001; 09:02:20 MDT - Msg ID: 54406)

Mr. Al Fulchino, re Mr. McCain

Mr. Al Fulchino, I concur with your assessment of Mr. McCain's character, as expressed in the second paragraph of post No. 54404.

You have a fine perception and have described the man as I believe he is.

Sierra

Cavan Man

(05/23/2001; 09:08:02 MDT - Msg ID: 54407)

Hey jinx and Al

I am not a McCain fan. I don't like him either. I would not vote for him. However, I have compassion for him because of his idiosyncracies and respect the years of his life he spent as a POW. I'll not judge him. In fact, I don't feel any different about him than I do most any pol excepting GWB. I am very fond of Mr. Bush and grow to like him more as time passes.

Cavan Man

(05/23/2001; 09:09:45 MDT - Msg ID: 54408)

Al Fulchino

That was a very accurate 2nd paragraph...congrats.

Carl H

(05/23/2001; 09:12:47 MDT - Msg ID: 54409)

Of Aluminum Smelters and Gold Mines

I had an interesting thought this morning...

If I recall correctly, someone posted that Barrick got electricity concessions recently.

There have also been many reports of US aluminum smelters shutting down right and left due to the high price of electricity.

Now consider which we need more Al or Au? Does it strike anyone else as a gross mis-allocation of resources to provide energy to gold mining rather than aluminium smelting?

Personally, I'm looking forward to seeing the ESF/FED supply Coke with gold to make pop cans....after all it is a useless "barberous relec".... ;-)

Carl H

(05/23/2001; 09:19:46 MDT - Msg ID: 54410)

Write your congressmen!

I know that I have been harping on this on this forum for the past couple weeks. I thank the management here for tolerating it.

I would again like to encourage everyone to make the time to send a letter to your representatives and senators that includes GATA's questions for Greenspan and O'Neil. I would be more than happy to help by providing a form letter that you can put your name and your congressman's name on.

If we don't pressure our government on this, then we are not much different than the rest of the American sheep.

jayzee

(05/23/2001; 10:08:35 MDT - Msg ID: 54411)

Euro

I have read many discussions about the undervaluation of the Euro. What has been largely overlooked is that Europe does NOT want a higher valuation of the Euro. All the major currencies have been involved in competative DEVALUATION in relation to the US$. They want to continue to have an advantage in exporting to the US.

This has allowed the US to greatly increase the money supply without much inflation (but the price of GOLD has to be suppressed).

Peter Asher

(05/23/2001; 10:27:20 MDT - Msg ID: 54412)

Silver Transmission lines would create a boom in one of two kids of fences.

Whatever might be used for high conductivity transmission lines, it won't be silver. Why?? When copper was trading at record highs in the seventies, a sudden large area power outage was caused by ---- Thieves taking down a section of high voltage transmission lines.

Now, if the lines used silver and quadrupled its price in the process, who long would they stay up?

Rockgrabber

(05/23/2001; 11:14:34 MDT - Msg ID: 54413)

jayzee

Yes Sir, you are on something there, about inflation looking to be held at bay, due to the fact that they have seen locall currencies gain about 6% per year from 95 on. Solely due to the dollar gaining 6% per year. They have not had to raise dollar prices to see gains. Naturally our manufacturers have not been able to raise prices either, so as to stay competetive in prices. I have a feeling this will hurt (is hurting) our manufacturers. All this has helped to keep inflation from showing, while greatly expanding the money supply. Now what happens if the dollar fell at lets just say 6% per year? Now how will that help to bring on inflation?

Mountain Top

(05/23/2001; 11:42:41 MDT - Msg ID: 54414)

Peter Asher

You are correct Sir. There would indeed be a rash of downed power lines in the event of their being made of silver. There is a young fellow in this area who has lost both arms at the elbow from attempting to remove copper power lines. Some have lost their lives in the foolishness of trying to steal the copper lines. How much greater the temptation if it were silver.

Mountain Top

(05/23/2001; 11:44:22 MDT - Msg ID: 54415)

Peter Asher

MarkeTalk

(05/23/2001; 13:06:26 MDT - Msg ID: 54416)

Developing Short Squeeze?

The recent run-up in gold prices has been a validation to our analysis here at Centennial/USAGOLD, which we publish every month in our News & Views newsletter. We believe that this is just the beginning and that there is much, much more to come. My clients are always asking me about timing. I read a number of newsletters, the best of which are only 70% correct all the time.

First of all, Arch Crawford of Crawford Perspectives was the first one to alert us of a potential low in early April at $255/oz. So far, so good. Secondly, Richard Russell of Dow Theory Letters mentioned a month or so ago in his daily missive that the XAU Index had issued a buy signal for gold stocks and now they have increased about 60%. What usually happens next is that the gold metal itself takes a big jump just to play catch-up. If this scenario plays out, then gold's next move is straight up through $300/oz. and onto $400/oz! Now Erik Hadik of Insiide Track is alerting us to cyclical lows clustering around the middle to the end of May. (Aside from his technical analysis, I really do enjoy his monthly essays on geo-political/economic matters. I highly recommend his newsletter.)

However, what has really caught my attention is the following information, courtesy of GATA and one of this site's posters, The Hoople. The Hoople told me today that the open interest in the June Comex gold contract has increased since last week--instead of decreasing as is usually the case--as the contract approaches First Notice Day. The exact number of increase was 5,950 contracts as of May 18th--which was the day when gold jumped $14/oz! This now puts the total open interest for the June contract at 71,000 out of a total open interest of 133,000 for all contract months. Now, this is quite exciting because First Notice Day for the June contract is Thursday, May 31st. IF the majority of longs do not roll out into August, October or December, then we will know that a classic short squeeze is underway and prices will skyrocket!

Let's assume that just 10% of the 71,000 open contracts for June hold on past First Notice Day and take delivery of the physical gold. My calculations show 7,100 x 100 ounces/contract = 710,000 ounces. I don't know the exact number of ounces in the Comex warehouse but it is in the area of 850,000 ounces. Theoretically, June deliveries against the physical metal could almost totally deplete the warehouse inventory. There would not be enough metal to support the other contract months. This is beginning to resemble the situation with palladium as it began its meteoric rise from the $150 level to over $1000 per ounce.

Finally, I have to say that I have seen similar set-ups like this one in the past couple of years and nothing ever developed. Somehow the gold manipulators were able to scrounge up enough gold to meet deliveries. But with all of the recent revelations by James Turk and the Reg Howe lawsuit gaining adherents and legitimacy here and abroad, I tend to think this time it is different! Time will tell, and that very shortly.

Netking

(05/23/2001; 13:13:51 MDT - Msg ID: 54417)

Silver lines / Hill Billy Mitchell-Simply Me

Mountain Top/Peter Asher - Good logic here folks, although I guess they are talking about main & secondry grid/line rather than the lines in very highway & back street. If this (the former)were the case there would be 1st class monitoring of this capital investment in the infrastructure. If the loss of power in these grids is 30%+/-(?)that would make the investment more than worthwhile (at current prices IMHO).

Hill Billy Mitchell/Simply Me(54395)
Ooops! sorry about this Simply Me. Thanks for letting me know!

Sierra Madre

(05/23/2001; 13:15:11 MDT - Msg ID: 54418)

Monetary folly is rampant

Why Dollar-Based Paper Currencies Are Inherently Unstable

It is an instructive lesson in the intellectual laziness of the human race, to observe how persons supposedly highly intelligent and devoted to matters economic, monetary and financial, insist on beating about the bush and persist in offering opinions on what must be done to achieve stability in dollar-based paper money systems, when the central fact is staring them in the face: there is no stability possible for dollar-based paper money systems.

Consider the case of Mexico.

If the Mexican peso is stable in value with regard to the dollar, for any length of time, then the peso is, for practical purposes, a proxy for the dollar. If Mexico's peso is a proxy for the dollar, then Mexico's economy will behave like the American economy. Mexican exports will fall, and Mexico will incur a trade deficit - more imports with a strong peso, and less exports.

The United States can, and does, continue to run enormous trade deficits, because it can pay for all the excessive imports with dollars, which it has been generating in unlimited quantities. But Mexico cannot do the same, since Mexico cannot produce dollars out of nothing, as the US financial system does.

If Mexico runs trade deficits, it begins to run out of dollars to pay for imports. This leads to the inevitable devaluation, to restore the level of exports and curb the appetite for imports.

Thus a stable peso, based on dollar reserves, leads to an unstable peso.

This inherent instability, will of course not change in the least, if the Mexican economy is dollarized, as seems likely to occur. The case of Argentina is a precise example.

It is truly amazing that so many fine brains in the world today, waste so much effort on trying to work around the facts so simply set forth, above.

To describe all the destructive consequences attendant upon the evasion of what is a fundamental unworkableness, would take up a book. I will not tire you.

An interesting scenario, which will unfold in the near future, is what happens to dollar-based paper money systems, when the dollar devalues substantially.

We are living in a world held together with pins, lurching from crisis to crisis. Truly, the world has become a madhouse. We see measures which only buy a little time. As G.K Chesterton said (my paraphrase): "The unmistakable hallmark of barbarism, is the preference for the temporary over the permanent".

Get some gold! And don't forget to pray.

Sierra

Tree in the Forest

(05/23/2001; 13:49:53 MDT - Msg ID: 54419)

Carl H - superconductors

Agree with you on superconductors Carl. They are currently being used commercially in MRIs and local power plant high current buses. I also found one power plant using them in a storage ring as a current source to mitigate load transients. But for anything not local, they aren't practical yet. There are many obstacles to overcome in long distance transmission, not the least of which, recovery from catastrophic failure and restart. As to the bozos cutting down high voltage lines, the punishment is built in. These are the world's stupidest criminals. When I worked in high voltage, stories circulated of engineers and techs killed on the job. And we knew what we were doing! (supposedly!)

Tree in the Forest

(05/23/2001; 13:59:17 MDT - Msg ID: 54420)

Al Fulchino

I agree with you and Jinx44 re: McCain. In particular I was pleased by your comment that people believe what they want to believe. It is a very honest observation and reveals the character of the type of people who post here. Bless YOU Al and thank you. And may God bless the great state of New Hampshire. "Live Free or Die"

Old Yeller

(05/23/2001; 14:00:53 MDT - Msg ID: 54421)

MarkeTalk;54416

Very,very interesting commentary.Thanks for posting,I appreciate your insights,especially on such a tumultous day in the FX markets.

I found the last paragraph intriguing,yes,we've seen this movie several times.Where is the cavalry bearing the physical gold going to come from this time?

Tree in the Forest

(05/23/2001; 14:16:32 MDT - Msg ID: 54422)

Canuck, Rockgrabber, IronHead

Canuck: I agree with you on mining shares but for that matter so does TG. He holds Goldfields. I think that TG/FOA/Another's point is that shares are much more speculative than holding physical. For those who are older and are protecting their wealth, physical gold is the best bet and offers built-in leverage; something very unusual for physical gold. They seem to be saying why risk your wealth on paper at this point, when you can get leverage with physical. And it's a legitimate position. But not all of us are in the same position and each must judge for himself how much to risk.

Rockgrabber, IronHead: There is the possibility of one last plunge in the gold price but it's unlikely it will ever see zero. The prediction from JP Morgan was $210 by June. the prediction that I posted from longwaves was a 7 month window beginning 4/30 for a plunge to $180 area. Presumably this would be due to Comex paper getting flushed down the loo in June. Also please note that such a plunge may not be tradeable. You may have difficulty getting PMs at bargain prices and/or you may have difficulty taking advantage of a plunge that only lasts a few hours or days. We wait and watch.

The Stranger

(05/23/2001; 14:33:53 MDT - Msg ID: 54423)

Dow Jones Story!!!!!!!

Less than an hour ago, mining shares began to rally. Many closed near their highs for the day. What sparked the recovery was probably a Dow Jones Newswire that claimed some investment banks are in a world of hurt over the gold rally. The article discussed GATA's efforts and said that some high level banking officials, including perhaps Alan Greenspan, may have to appear in court. Furthermore, the article said that the legal battle may force gold trading records out into the open where they may significantly embarrass those who have sought to suppress gold prices.

I have never seen so thorough an expose of what may be really going on in the gold market by a major mainstream news organization. Furthermore, the story undoubtedly hit the work station of every broker in the country. Unfortunately, I do not know how to transfer it here to the forum. But I think everyone here will agree, once they have seen it, that this thing may very well blow the lid off!

R Powell

(05/23/2001; 14:34:43 MDT - Msg ID: 54424)

One fer day

The mining stocks (XAU) index was down again by 1.48 points to 61.35. Lease rates were up on both the Kitco listing and the LBMA link provided here although the numbers were no where near the same. I think I trust the LBMA link more than Kitco.
POG ended down $1.50 and lumber was limit down again today.
POS was up slightly by 1.2 cents and soybeans was also up slightly.
I don't place too much faith in the idea that silver and beans move together or that gold and lumber move in tandem but there are some who do. Some say that bad weather in New York with low barometic pressure usually leads to a down day for the Dow and Duck and high pressure makes everyone feel good so stock prices rise. Who knows? Some look to the stars and some sacrifice chickens.
Netking- thanks for the info (silver-investor.com) of a possible buying cartel. This fits in nicely with MarkeTalk's heads up on a possible squeeze. Any confirmation of Morgan's buying group, disclosed in the mainstream media, and I'd guess we're off the races. Are we ready??
Rich

R Powell

(05/23/2001; 15:02:42 MDT - Msg ID: 54425)

Tree's 54422

Thin markets From Mr. Tree's (54422), "You may have difficulty getting PM's at bargin prices and/or you may have difficulty taking advantage of a plunge that only lasts a few hours or days."
Many can foresee what will happen but IMHO very few can time an explosive move. I believe many who claim to have timed big moves have, in fact, simply been extremely lucky or were positioned long before the breakout. Most are also trying to sell us their opinions.
Also, Friday afternoon will find many traders heading for the exits for the long weekend before the markets close. This always presents an opportunity for the local brokers to play in a thinly traded market. When the cats away! I've also heard that Comex is more vulnerable to tomfoolery after noon time as the London players close at noon. This may have been the case last Friday. Paper traders can take advantage (catch these price moves) by placing buy orders at lower prices or sell orders at higher prices. Physical holders can simply want for the inevitable to happen, as holding physical metal is like holding options that never expire.
Stranger, Thanks for the heads-up. This could be the trigger, no??
Rich

Buena Fe

(05/23/2001; 15:13:54 MDT - Msg ID: 54426)

Stranger.......DJ Story

I'm trying to find this story, can you be more specific about its headline and time.

Thanks much

The Stranger

(05/23/2001; 15:20:09 MDT - Msg ID: 54427)

Lady Leigh (From an Embarrassed Stranger)

I thought I was being very funny the other night when I quickly dashed off a couple of lines using your password. In fact, I laughed out loud.

Gold was trading at almost $300/oz. There was a party atmosphere in the room. I never dreamed I might be causing anyone any pain.

By your absence, I realize how wrong I must have been. For that, I apologize. I hope you will forgive me. I only meant to tease, not to hurt.

The Stranger

(05/23/2001; 15:22:19 MDT - Msg ID: 54428)

Buena Fe

Give me a few minutes, and I'll get right back with that info.

R Powell

(05/23/2001; 15:23:46 MDT - Msg ID: 54429)

Previous post correction

Physical holders can simply wait (not want)...
I often don't proofread as my Aol server has a nasty habit of disconnecting for "lack of activity". Sometimes they warn me of disconnects with "Do you wish to stay online" type messages But sometimes there is no warning!
Does anyone offer serve without a disconnect policy??
Go Gata, go soybeans!
Rich

The Stranger

(05/23/2001; 15:29:53 MDT - Msg ID: 54430)

Buena Fe

The story ran at 1:35PM under the following Dow Jones headline:

S AFRICA WATCH: Gold Spike Punctures Banks' Cozy Cartel
by Adam Aljewicz

SteveH

(05/23/2001; 15:35:36 MDT - Msg ID: 54431)

Interesting

http://www.prudentbear.com/boards/user/non-frames/message.asp?forumid=4&messageid=48823&threadid=48823Short squeeze?

Buena Fe

(05/23/2001; 15:37:13 MDT - Msg ID: 54432)

Thanks very much!

Cheers

canamami

(05/23/2001; 15:45:13 MDT - Msg ID: 54433)

Reply to the Stranger

Monsieur "L'etranger", mon vieux,

Do I now detect tolerance, in your recent posts (today and previous), to the view that the POG may have been manipulated? (Apologies in advance if I missed any of your posts on this point, as I have missed a huge number of posts in the past several months. The rally peaks one's interest in gold, and brings one back).

R Powell

(05/23/2001; 15:47:58 MDT - Msg ID: 54434)

Stranger/ Buena Fe

Stranger, sector (Gold-eagle castle)has already post your initial Dow Jones newswire alert at 17:04. I'll bet there are many eyes now looking for a link and/or more info. Thanks again!
Rich

The Stranger

(05/23/2001; 16:09:12 MDT - Msg ID: 54435)

canamami

Mon Ami...

My take on this subject has always been that OFFICIAL manipulation is not only possible but quite likely. If Central Banks transact in the foreign exchange markets in order to adjust currency relationships, why wouldn't they trade in the gold market for much the same reason?

Where I have been skeptical is with the notion that public corporations are united in a conspiracy to control the POG for their own ends. There are too many mouths to keep quiet, if you ask me.

However, I do believe in the carry trades, and, legal or otherwise, bringing these transactions into the light of day has got to be beneficial to our ends. If nothing else, at least the public would come to understand why the subject of gold is treated with such contempt by the analytic community.

Leigh

(05/23/2001; 16:09:23 MDT - Msg ID: 54436)

The Stranger

Dear Stranger: Thank you for your confession! I, too, have a confession to make. Last year when 4Ducat posted his password, I used it to post a silly note to him from "Mr. Seven Hills." (Sorry, 4Ducat!) So you can see that I have no cause to blame anyone.

Isn't this Forum great?

Your friend, Leigh

The Stranger

(05/23/2001; 16:13:58 MDT - Msg ID: 54437)

Leigh, Buena Fe, R Powell

Leigh... yes, this Forum is great, and so are you for your kindness. I feel much better now.

Buena Fe and R Powell... you're both welcome!

ORO

(05/23/2001; 16:34:26 MDT - Msg ID: 54438)

The Invisible Hand - Credit cycle and Fed

The Privateer newsletter came with the observation that in Japan the BOJ found it difficult to push reserves into the banking system as the banks could find none willing to borrow. This is the "pushing on a string" problem. This brought me to write a little about the short credit cycle � about 3 years in duration.

In the Greenspan action cited by Crudele there was obviously no problem with that, the funds immediately pursued exactly what the Fed wanted, and a few things they probably did not. The Fed action absorbed some long maturity Treasuries from dealers, and helped cap interest rates on them (for a while) as the purchase of bonds by the Fed immediately brings interest rates down because the buying increases the bond price which is proportional to 1/interest-rate. The sellers of the bonds (to the Fed) did not turn around and buy other bonds, they bought stocks - and gold.

While the Fed was surely hoping for stocks to do well, it was for interest rates to stop climbing that this action was taken, a necessary step on the road to "reflation" of the economy. The leveraged speculating community of hedge funds borrowing short and buying long term bonds serves to transfer a lower Fed dictated interbank interest rate (the Fed funds rate) into the longer yields. It should be pointed out that spreads between commercial and Federal Treasury paper and mortgage spreads remained rather high, leaving the hedge funds with losses on corporate bonds, losses incurred while the Fed tightened, and since the Fed took rates down - long rates on Treasuries (and to an extent on mortgages and corporate paper), went up, leaving the same leveraged speculating community with new losses, despite the much lower short term rates. That these continue to drop below the Fed funds rate is an indication of ongoing liquidation of these carry trades despite rather high time spreads and credit quality spreads which should encourage more of them.

What hit LTCM at the time and nearly destroyed it was the great rise in spreads from the historically high values at which they purchased foreign bonds (bonds were cheap, rates were high) to even higher spreads, as the dealers joined the mass panic out of these holdings, pushing foreign dollar bond rates to "100 year flood" levels. These same problems were haunting the dollar financial structure since.

As the exodus from non-dollar and foreign dollar debt holdings unfolded, sellers of this paper bought treasuries, mortgages, and US corporate debt. The Fed lowered short interest rates in order to save the leveraged speculators and the illiquid foreign debtors by allowing the speculators to lower their financing costs, thus preventing the liquidation of their positions, which would have caused the whole of the debt markets to freeze like a deer in the headlights.

Furthermore, dealers and financial companies hedged their long term interest rate exposure on mortgages and corporate debt in inventory (not yet sold to "permanent" holders) by shorting treasury futures (so that they make money when Treasury rates rise, to cancel losses on the bonds they hold - which generally move together). During the Summer-Autumn 1998 break in the markets, the rates did move together, just that Treasury rates fell much more quickly, and much of the lower quality paper actually had higher rates, leaving the hedger with an extremely difficult position of both his hedge and his inventory losing him money very quickly. The only substantial institutions escaping this problem were the GSE's Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, who's credit rating allowed them near infinite borrowing at short term rates so that they could absorb all the refinancing volumes that came as a result of the drop in interest rates (the effect of the Treasury short squeeze also induced a move up the risk ladder into mortgage backed paper as Treasury rates became unnatractive to holders).

As the Fed interest rate reductions took hold in 1998, the GSE's rushed late refinancings and completed the securitizations of older refinancings, that poured cash into bond holder's hands, while using this same cash to finance this activity (cash means money market accounts, who's largest asset is GSE short term borrowings). The fresh cash at low rates was not the investment that bond holders had in mind, they bought back foreign and corporate bonds, credit card and auto loan securitizations, and looked for borrowers from whom higher rates could be obtained. What they did not do, is buy back more mortgages from Fannie, or Treasuries. The funding capacity of cash burning holes in fund pockets, ended up financing the telecom boom, where future profits were expected to be phenomenal.

Innovation, however, made the installed equipment obsolete as soon as it was in the ground, leading to evaporation of these profits as newer competitors could under price the established infrastructure. When optical cables were finally hooked up, product prices fell like a rock, inducing businesses that did not consider broadband connections before, to buy computers, software, and customization services to hook up to the internet and establish a presence. Businesses were just as hopeful and full of dreams of internet riches as consumers were. In the crowd was everyone from stock flippers to mutual fund stuffers, bankers recruiting and selling new internet companies, government, and all industries.

As the telecom and internet sector (both actual internet companies and those supplying or using their equipment or services) borrowed funds at higher rates than mortgagers, or the government would pay. At the same time, the rates on mortgages and Treasuries rose as competition for credit (you know that the highest risk adjusted rate wins, and the risk was not being in the net/telecom) drove rates higher for low risk debt (Treasuries and mortgage backed), and foreign dollar debt improved substantially. Finally, the Fed, noticing that oil prices and commodity prices were rising in tandem with the stock market, and that hedge funds were not at any further risk and were borrowing heavily in the short term money markets to make use of the spreads, figured that the international dollar deflation (caused by the Euro introduction into a heavily dollar indebted world) was weakening. So he raised rates, which promptly sank the emerging markets, and commercial lending, which was a blow to the booming technology sector, already (in late 99 and early 2000) was already seeing rising inventories and weak pricing as customers who upgraded for Y2K concerns early (without internet functionality) were being outrun by those who upgraded late (with internet functionality built in) who rushed to upgrade into the newer generation equipment and services. Then the whole rationale of the internet came into question as the new upgrades, services, etc. materialized into up and running projects and lost their mystery while showing little profit potential, because these were already a "crowded trade".

It is important to note here that the dollar is a central Fed concern both internally and externally. It is also important to note that short rates are both affected by the Fed and affect Fed decisions. Once short term borrowings start growing in the money markets, and rates there rise in response, the Fed can't keep interest rates low without causing banks to borrow from each other and from the Fed in order to buy these money market instruments, and longer term debt. This kind of credit expansion can easily lead to an inflationary blowup, once the Fed is tapped. Thus the Fed must respond to the money market rates and raise rates, while the money markets must raise rates in expectation of Fed moves, so that borrowers there are not caught with rising finance costs, and lenders to it are not missing the boat on upcoming higher rates. Also, rising short rates bring long rate holders to sell and hold short rate paper, while hedge funds (and banks) unwind the opposite side to these trades, while making losses. This causes the backwardation of interest rates, the inverted yield curve, as after higher short rates bubbled into higher long rates the high rate borrowers are all satisfied and long rates decline.

Because the telecom/tech borrowing was so intense and the discovery of the low profitability of these investments was so sudden, short rate tech driven borrowing came to a sudden halt at the higher short rates, as did the long rate borrowing months before that, and the hedgies playing the spreads were burnt out of the markets (again). At the same time, the energy crisis started, and commodity prices recovered, bringing business costs up and profits down (for all outside the energy sector), and these new costs had to be covered by investment in totally different areas than telecom/tech, and were causing severe deterioration of business credit quality as reduced profits were coupled with higher debt burdens. Short rates followed the long rates down as more and more of the long borrowers shut out by the tech borrowing in 1999-2000, were satisfied at somewhat lower rates, and further borrowers at the same high rates were nowhere to be found, pushing lenders into the short rate market rather than the saturated long market. So towards end 2000, the lenders were pushing short rates down aggressively, while the lack of fresh borrowers kept long rates dropping, till the Fed started lowering rates, when short rates continued their decline, while long rates reversed abruptly as inflationary premiums expanded and the refinancing wave gathered steam, pushing money back into bond holder's hands, which quickly used it to undo the junk bond and emerging market bond damage. In a couple of months, the low grade bond market recovered greatly while the higher grade bonds took water.

At this point, we are facing low short rates which should induce hedgies to enter further spread trades, thus limiting long rates, in tandem with money market lenders doing the opposite � moving out of short rate paper and into long rate paper. This process should limit downside on short rates when short term corporate borrowing increases to take advantage of low short rates and the lower long rates, once the refinancing flows are done moving into bondholder hands (only 15% of outstanding mortgage borrowings were at rates high enough to justify refinancing, leaving mostly home equity debt to be refinanced, which can happen only if real estate continues up in value substantially relative to wage income).

To recap the process, here is a table of participants and interest rates, note that hedgies include banks and leveraged re-lenders. Mortgage and commercial borrowers sit on one side, lenders on the other, hedgies in between, trying to fit the needs of one side to those of the other. Lenders include private individuals, corporate balances, pensions.

� � � � � �.Money rates� . Long rates
Levels . . .low . . . . . . . .high
Commercial Borrow . . . . . Refi
Mortgage . . . . . . . . . .Reduced borrowing
Hedgies . .Borrow . . . . . Lend
Lender . . liquidate. . . . Lend
Effect: . .Increase . . . . decrease

Levels .�..increasing . . . decreasing
Commercial Borrow . . . . . .Borrow
Mortgage . . . . . . . . . .Refi, increase borrowing
Hedgies . .hold . . . . . . Lend, collect cash
Lender . . Lend . . . . . . Liquidate, collect cash
Effect: . .Stabilize . . . . decrease more slowly, bottom

Note: collect cash means lending to money markets

Levels .�..high . . . . . . stabilize, slow decrease, low rate
Commercial refi . . . . . . Borrow
Mortgage . . . . . . . . . .Peak Refi, increase borrowing
Hedgies . .Lend . . . . . . Liquidate
Lender . . Lend . . . . . . Liquidate, collect cash
Effect: . .decrease . . . . bottom, increase

Levels .�..decreasing . . . low rate
Commercial refi . . . . . . Borrow
Mortgage . . . . . . . . . .Refi slows, increase borrowing
Hedgies . .borrow . . . . . increase credit risk lending
Lender . . Lend . . . . . . Liquidate, increase credit risk lending
Effect: . .bottom . . . . . increase

Levels .�..low . . . . . . . .rising
Commercial borrow . . . . . reduce borrowing
Mortgage . . . . . . . . . .increase borrowing to avoid future high rates
Hedgies . .borrow . . . . . increase credit risk lending
Lender . . Lend . . . . . . Liquidate, increase credit risk lending
Effect: . .bottom . . . . . increase

Levels . . .low . . . . . . . .high
Return to cycle start.

Black Blade

(05/23/2001; 17:05:52 MDT - Msg ID: 54439)

RE: Zenidea (05/23/01; 08:05:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 54403) Loony vs. USD?

Zenidea

I haven't thought too much about the loonie/toonie that much. In comparison to the USD I would suspect that the USD would lose ground as the Fed has been cranking up the presses. On the other hand, the Canadians sold off their gold reserves, so the currency is backed by �. ? There have been calls on both sides of the border to Dollarize Canada. I don't know much about Canadian nationalism except for beer and hockey ;-) The funny thing is that most US citizens think of Canada as the 51st state. Economically both countries are so closely tied (currently more so for Canada) that eventually a common currency would not be out of the question. Canada does have a wild card so to speak. They are likely to be a integral part of the US energy equation for the Northeast US. They are developing their offshore natural gas and oil prospects while the US has the Atlantic offshore off-limits to petroleum exploration. Of course if the technology catches up with energy demand, the Athabasca Tar Sands in Alberta could become the Saudi of the west. That alone would make Western Canada an economic powerhouse. It could also lead them to seek independence as Quebec has attempted. The Eastern Canadians would strongly oppose the loss of such wealth of course. It is a difficult question to answer. Dollarization could be in the cards, yet the Canadians, although they fell in sh#t by selling their gold reserves, they may yet still come up smelling like a rose. In effect (intuitively - gut feel), I think it's probably a toss up. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/23/2001; 17:35:37 MDT - Msg ID: 54440)

Carl H (05/23/01; 09:12:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 54409)

Newmont got concessions on their energy contracts (supposedly). I think that these are price caps ordered by the state of Nevada. I would suspect that Barrick has the same deal. Since gold mining is still a large part of the state's economy, it isn't surprising. As the other large Nevada industries - Gaming and legal prostitution - also provide significant revenues for the state. Aluminum smelting in the northwest is not a significant portion of those states economies. It is also quite profitable to sell the long-term energy contracts on the spot energy market. Note that in other states where (metals) mining is not a significant part of the states economy such as in Montana, there are no energy contract concessions. For example Montana Resources (copper) and Placer Dome's Golden Sunlight (gold) are shutdown or nearly shutdown. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Buena Fe

(05/23/2001; 17:43:24 MDT - Msg ID: 54441)

Thanks GATA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

South Africa Watch:
Gold Spike Punctures Banks' Cozy Cartel

By Adam Aljewicz
Dow Jones Newswires
May 23, 2001

JOHANNESBURG -- The latest run-up in the gold price has left
a lot of investment bankers nursing extremely sore positions.

The reason is that gold has risen more in the last two weeks
than in the past two years. You've probably heard all of the
reasons and more, but just in case you've been in
geosynchronous orbit for a while, market commentators
have cited inflation, technicals, fundamentals, rising oil
prices, and rising tensions in the Middle East.

The usual suspects, I hear you cry.

But whatever the reason there seems to be something
much more sinister going on.

The Federal Reserve and other financial institutions stand
accused of trying to force down the price of gold and faces
possibly embarrassing revelations if a legal case against
top financial institutions gets under way.

A group of disgruntled gold investors collectively calling
themselves the Gold Antitrust Action Committee, under
lawyer and gold analyst Reg Howe, is pressing for a full
judicial hearing of its claims that the Bank for
International Settlements, central banks, and investment
houses have colluded to keep the gold price down,
because they all stand to lose a packet if it goes up.

If allowed to go to the discovery stage, obliging banks
to reveal their complete documentation, the case might
force a number of U.S. Federal Reserve officials, including
Fed chairman Alan Greenspan, on to the stand to be
cross-examined on their motives. Or course, GATA's
case may well be a Trojan Horse, but the case, if it
continues, will reveal true motives on both sides.

"For people who are short of gold, the high gold
price is a disaster," said a South African gold mining
executive, requesting anonymity.

"And they'll do whatever they can to make sure
sentiment doesn't turn positive. But don't print that
or I might be shot on the way home," he said.

A decision on whether the case will go to discovery
is earmarked for the end of June.

Lease Rates

Commentators have cited a recent World Gold
Council meeting for gold's rally, but who's taken
any notice of the WGC in the past few years?
Not gold. Some say it's the market's technicals,
but technicals are, more often than not,
kick-started by the fundamentals, and these haven't
changed in years. Demand still exceeds mine supply.

Some say it's inflation, but inflation has been rearing
its head for a while now and anyway, the past few
years have seen a glut of gold analysts arguing that
gold's relationship with inflation went out years ago.
Some even venture that the relationship was never
real and just a cruel joke invented by former
governments to prop up its value.

Tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices?
Gold's seen it all before.

More significantly, though, are reports that central
banks are no longer lending gold to commercial
banks as aggressively as before, so lease rates
have risen to reflect the relative scarcity on the
market, driving up the cost of borrowing the metal.

This means that speculators who have borrowed
gold in the past at lower prices, expecting to pay
it back later, have been heavily squeezed. U.S.
institutions are outraged.

When gold rallied to $284/oz on Comex Friday
both Chase and Goldman Sachs were said to have
been selling with every ounce they could muster.
Every time it approached $275/oz they sold heavily
to drive the price lower still.

Some would say this reeks of desperation, but the
bears say gold's rally is inexplicable, a flash in the
pan, that gold's fundamentals don't warrant a higher
price, that the demand out of India is purely
seasonal, and that the price will plunge to the low
$260's before too long.

If it does, the banks will be popping the champagne
corks down at the Plaza Hotel.

The bulls, meanwhile, point to tightening lease rates,
inflation fears, and talk the Bank of China is converting
its dollar reserves into gold -- all factors the banks
don't want to know about.

The case continues ... in court?

-END-

VanRip

(05/23/2001; 17:49:07 MDT - Msg ID: 54442)

Stranger/DowJonesStory

Stranger, I referred your post to Bill Murphy, as I'm sure many others did. I'm sure he saw it for himself. Anyway, he just emailed the Dow Jones story to his subscribers. I'm sure Chris will have it up for all to see shortly. Thanks for the tip. Good story.

auspec

(05/23/2001; 17:52:10 MDT - Msg ID: 54443)

GATA??

Our Friends at GATA have been pretty quiet today, wonder what's up??

Hitting Dow Jones Newswires is pretty awesome, no? Credit where credit is due.......THANKS GATA!!

The Stranger

(05/23/2001; 17:57:10 MDT - Msg ID: 54444)

VanRip and Buena Fe

Thanks, VanRip!
Nice work, Buena Fe! This is wonderful news for everybody.

And a special thank you to Bill Murphy and the rest of the GATA machine! Marvelous!

Black Blade

(05/23/2001; 18:18:34 MDT - Msg ID: 54445)

California Capsule: Controller Says $13.4 Billion Not Enough

http://www.energyonline.com/news/articles/e22-1ca.asp
LCG, May 22, 2001�California state Controller Kathleen Connell told a news conference yesterday that proceeds from the $13.4 billion bond issue approved by the legislature to cover power purchases made by the state will not be enough.

Also:

Davis Hiring of Clinton Spin Doctors Criticized

State to Give Notice before Blackouts

Black Blade: California neglect of the energy grid, power plants, hydrocarbon exploration and development, etc. could well cost California in the hundreds of billions as the economy slides into the abyss. Nothing new here. California is about to be the poster child for "how not to manage an energy crisis." They got what they voted for. Kommissar Davis is only rearranging the chairs on the deck of the Titanic.

Black Blade

(05/23/2001; 18:35:35 MDT - Msg ID: 54446)

Calif. Faces Higher Energy Costs

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20010523/us/power_woes_7.html
Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) - Higher power costs zapped restaurateur Marino Sandoval and his customers even before California regulators decided how to allocate a $5.7 billion electricity rate hike - the highest in state history. Faced with soaring natural gas rates that tripled his utility bill, Sandoval last month raised prices at his popular Mexican restaurant chain, El Balazo, by as much as 20 percent on some items. A giant burrito that cost $4.95 at the end of March costs $5.95 today. ``We had to do it because it seemed like the price of everything, from our beans to our tortillas, was going up almost every day. Our higher prices have everything to do with the higher energy prices,'' said Sandoval, who runs six restaurants in the San Francisco area.

The higher rates, which will begin appearing in June's utility bills, threaten to jolt the state's already-jittery economy. ``Pretty soon, we may see California staring down the barrel of a recession,'' said Dave Puglia, a vice president for APCO, a public affairs firm hired by California business interests to study the economic effect of the state's energy woes. Even if they don't shut down completely, many companies likely will lay off workers as they cut costs to pay for power. The California Manufacturers and Technology Association estimates the energy crisis will result in the loss of 135,755 jobs - or about 40,000 more than the entire dot-com industry has laid off nationwide during the past 16 months.

Black Blade: Fortunately food is not in the BLS core rate of the CPI so it doesn't count as inflation. BTW, I wonder if Mexican Baby Food is also going up in price ;-) Se--or Sandoval also said, "I have been too busy to think about whether I am going to have to raise my prices again,'' he said. ``If I have to, I will. I don't think people are going to stop eating because of this.'' - I agree, I don't think that people will stop eating.

Black Blade

(05/23/2001; 18:43:49 MDT - Msg ID: 54447)

Fury over the great gold sale

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/dynamic/news/business_story.html?in_review_id=393615∈_revieSnippit:

THE GOVERNMENT plans to press ahead and complete its sale of 60% of Britain's gold reserves by the end of the year despite demands from senior Tories that the auction be halted. Critics of Chancellor Gordon Brown's gold sales argue he has been selling off a national asset too cheaply as part of a broader plan to prepare Britain for entry into the single currency. Around 40% of the cash raised from gold sales as been reinvested in the troubled Euro. Senior Conservative Sir Teddy Taylor told a General Election meeting it was a matter of 'utmost urgency' that the 'scandalous' sales of the nation's gold reserves were halted. He described the gold auctions as 'part of a devious plot to prop up the Euro'.

Black Blade: We have been saying such here for some time. The critics appear to be getting more vocal.

Black Blade

(05/23/2001; 18:59:47 MDT - Msg ID: 54448)

A penny saved is not enough - AARP says millions will need to work after retirement

http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/143/business/A_penny_saved_is_not_enough+.shtml
Snippit:

retirement dreams of playing golf all day or driving across the country in a Winnebago may remain just that - dreams - for millions of Americans. Many people ages 50 and over are not saving enough money and will have to continue working to support themselves after they reach the traditional retirement age, suggests a study by the nation's largest group representing retirees.

Black Blade: Of course the phoney baloney BLS statistics and the use of dubious statistical filters (i.e. seasonality, hedonic pricing, etc.) are meant for the purpose of screwing the elderly out of their Social Security benefits. In effect, the BLS is guilty of Elder Abuse. Sure, it is also meant to hide the dire state of the economy by giving the false impression of "all is well." However, the biggest gain is the abuse of elderly Americans. It is somewhat necessary as the "cupboard is bare." The SS has been raided and the funds replaced with what may soon be worthless government IOU's. Why worthless? Simple - First begin by extending the age for retirement (work us to death), needs-based testing? Maybe. Eventually default and blame anyone but those responsible. Get used to the idea - there will be no Social Security for the majority of the current US workforce.

Journeyman

(05/23/2001; 19:12:33 MDT - Msg ID: 54449)

BIGfloat update - - - from England posted by The Invisible Hand msg#: 54397 @ORO, ALL

http://www.google.com/search?q=cache:aUyS2vSx1WA:utenti.tripod.it/ias/revfiles/1_00.pdf+%22Triffin%27s+dilemma%22&hl=en
Here is an indirect explanation of why dollarizing (or euroizing) the world is easier said than done - - - AND why the Euro, still not a physical (paper) reality, has taken more 20 years in the making. From the link in the header:

Europe and World Trade

The failure of the Seattle meeting of the World Trade Organisation,
that should have culminated in agreement on the launch of the WTO's
"Millennial Round" trade talks, has disclosed divisions in a number of
areas. One of these, in which the United States and Europe are diametri-
cally opposed, is that of agriculture and biotechnologies. On these
particular issues, the United States styled itself as a champion of free
trade, while Europe, anxious to safeguard the environment and the
wholesomeness of foodstuffs, maintained that it could not abandon its
common agricultural policy, even though the CAP constitutes, in many
regards, a distortion of the rules of international competition. Europe also
defended, in the name of biological diversity and the safeguarding of
health, its restrictive stance on the importation of genetically modified
organisms and related technologies.
A second split was that which emerged between the industrially
developed world and the countries of the southern hemisphere. This time,
however, the promoters of free trade were the governments of the poorest
countries, while the rich nations insisted on the need to restrict imports of
goods originating from these countries, in the hope that this will stop
goods in the underdeveloped world from continuing to be produced at
what is a very high cost in terms of environmental decay, violation of
human rights, unacceptable working conditions and child labour.
A third schism opened up as the many NGOs present at Seattle
launched an attack on the profit-making philosophy of multinationals and
the governments that, in the name of the defence and improvement of the
quality of life, support them.

* * *

This does not mean, however, that the essential conflict emerging in
Seattle was one of values (in particular the value of free trade, on the one
hand, and values of a non economic nature on the other). In fact, what we
witnessed in Seattle was a gross exploitation of all these values, while the
real clashes that took place centred on clear-cut material interests. This is
certainly true in the case of Europe, whose real concern was to defend the
agricultural lobby (which enjoys very strong support in most of the
Union's member states), and to protect an agriculture and food industry
that finds itself at a severe disadvantage vis-�-vis the American industry
due to the backwardness of European scientific research in the field of
biotechnologies. And it is even more true in the case of the industrialised
world as a whole - from which, moreover, all the NGOs and unions
which so violently opposed the meeting originated - whose true purpose
was to defend its markets against the competition mounted by countries
with the capacity to produce certain goods at very low cost. In truth, the
various positions on the freedom of trade, or its limitation, adopted by the
governments represented at Seattle were determined in each case by the
nature of their own interests.

Regards,
Journeyman

Journeyman

(05/23/2001; 19:15:30 MDT - Msg ID: 54450)

Correction to message header. Should be: Why dollarization probably won't happen.

Whoops! Wrong title!! Message header should be the one above!!!

Regards & sorry,
Journeyman

MoutainGold

(05/23/2001; 19:35:49 MDT - Msg ID: 54451)

Big Gold Bull Just Started.....2 to 4 Year Run

As a new poster, my view is that Gold and Silver have just started major bull run. As a professional trader with 3 proprietary systems, my long system needs a 310 weekly close on nearby futures contract to validate the upcoming bull run. A great wealth building opportunity is at hand.

Enjoy the wealth of different insights and knowledge on this Forum. Happy to join in.

To all Gold-Eagle Forum posters. Seems I have been "deleted" from posting. Do not know why. Sure has gone down hill. Many good posters have left. Still some good ones left. Pragamatic, thanks for mentioned me...I was nodding on your post.

Later...I'll keep posting some of my technical analysis of Gold, Silver, Euro and Swiss Franc...my intention is to make one million dollars in the great Gold &Silver bull.

Tree in the Forest

(05/23/2001; 19:50:42 MDT - Msg ID: 54452)

MountainGold, Uponroof

Welcome aboard new posters. I have enjoyed your expositions on GE for some time and you bring considerable talent to this forum. Their loss; our gain.

The Hoople

(05/23/2001; 19:58:56 MDT - Msg ID: 54453)

R Powell

I am a lumber futures trader and also in the lumber industry. I noticed you mentioning possible gold/lumber correlation. I am of the belief there isn't. Lumber has a long history of boom-bust with horrible overproduction and epic short squeezes. Canadian stumpage subsidies, huge consolidation of mills, American mills protectionist policy, wholesale and retail ability to take huge positions at a given time and low open interest in the CME converge to produce a witches brew of volatility. In short, a future trader's dream. I was drawn to gold-silver based on my knowledge of lumber and soon discovered something was wrong. That's when I began backing Bill and Chris at GATA. This recent rally in lumber was probably the first time for a long time the small spec trader was right and the commercial mills were caught offside. I am in a position to witness all information from retail all the way to mill production. I knew a couple months ago when loads began showing up late and the Fed cut rates 5 times there was a serious lack of respect for the long possibility. Hence the squeeze. With that said all the earmarks of a collapse are in place. Offerings are springing up, and cash is catching no bids. With cash at an $80 premium to the Nov. contract something must give soon. If the quota issue would get resolved you could halve this price in an instant. Bear spreading - short July/long Sep or Nov looks attractive. (not investment advice). Quite different than gold and silver which appear to have a lid getting ready to blow off. Had gold been freely traded we would have witnessed monster rallys by now. That time seems closer every day. Thanks for all your input. If you need any other lumber insight our kind forum hosts will pass along my e-mail.

Galearis

(05/23/2001; 20:02:28 MDT - Msg ID: 54454)

lease rates for gold

They're up about .24% +- top to bottomI don't know if anyone posted about this already. Apologies if....

They either dumped on gold today and it did not work or they are loading up for tomorrow. One year rates at about .21% would seem to indicate hedging (Barrick anyone?).

The so-called gold cartel is going to have/has had some fun.

I would bet it more likely that the price of paper gold will start to fall again soon.

Paper covers

rock (gold)

(smile)

G.

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/23/2001; 20:11:46 MDT - Msg ID: 54455)

USAGOLD forum excerpts: All times BMCT (Branson, Mo. Central Time)

Day - 4
Wednesday, 09/29/1999 01:40:38BMCT (SteveH @ # 14827) "Dec gold now $ 303.80�)
to $297.80 (hate it when that happens). Will the boys (and girls knock her back to 288?"

Wednesday, 09/29/1999 02:10:33BMCT (Peter Asher @ # 14832) "Uh-Oh" (kitco link provided) "Glad I sold one out of three today."

Wednesday, 09/29/1999 03:59:24BMCT (RossL @ #14837) "Morning in London, Up 15 in the first two hours in London!!"

Wednesday, 09/29/1999 06:21:29BMCT (Andrew the kiwi @ # 14838) "The stuff that shines�11:20 PM NZ time�I am riding this thing, not selling a cracker yet, no worries mate!"

Wednesday, 09/29/1999 06:27:06BMCT (SteveH @ # 14842) "Holy big trouble! Kitco poster reports 1-month lease rate over 9%. Dec Gold up $5.30 at $315 in London�"

Wednesday, 09/29/1999 06:59:12BMCT (koan @ # 14843) "Gold 320 � Silver 5.80 � platinum 429. All three PM have straight up charts as we near New York. This is starting to look like 1980, not 1987. Pretty exciting."

Wednesday, 09/29/1999 07:39:23BMCT (Goldfly @ # 14854) "Here Spot! Here boy! Come on now�Spot now $317.30"

Wednesday, 09/29/1999 08:18:02BMCT (Goldfly @ 14857) "Spike!!! Bad boy. Baaaaad doggie�Spot $307.50"

Wednesday, 09/29/1999 08:35:26BMCT (USAGOLD @ # 14858) "QuickNote � Just talked to Lenny Kaplan�Very active market again this AM�Lease rates at 9.7%. No talk of any moratorium so far. Gold available but don't wait to buy. It could go lower but we don't think so. Not in this environment."

Wednesday, 09/29/1999 09:28:33BMCT (FOA @ # 14861) "Be back later today, I think. Swiss Franc, Deutsch Mark, Euro all UP! Crude oil UP .70+/-!! Dollar, British Pound, Japanese Yen all DOWN! Lease rates indicate total blow out of gold pricing infrastructure! Is there a picture here? Gold turning into Euro Money! If you want to be "on the road" risk free, buy physical gold, only gold!

Wednesday, 09/29/1999 13:32:23BMCT (Goldfly @ # 14887) "Ha Ha�.The longs were smart today! They saved some juice til the end. Spot $302 but the close is coming."

Wednesday, 09/29/1999 12:35:29BMCT (Golden Truth @ # 14889) GOLD CAPPED AT $300.00??? Looks like GOLD might be stuck in the $300.00 range, just like it was in the $255.00 to $260.00 range. I sure hope not! If so this really sucks, lets hope I am dead wrong, personally I am hoping I've never been more wrong in all my Life!"

Wednesday, 09/29/1999 17:48:17BMCT (ORO @ # 14907) "Why did it stop? It stopped because the players believe that they have support from other CBs outside of EU+�"

Wednesday, 09/29/1999 19:18:43BMCT (CoBra(too) @ # 14912) "ORO � Msg ID 14907 � Why did it stop?�ORO, the players of �short� ran out of support! Cheers CB2."

Wednesday, 09/29/1999 19:24:21BMCT (Orca @ # 14914) "Why did it stop? In IMVHO it stopped because the FED stepped in�It stopped because the US FED will do what Greenspan said in 1998 June they would do�stand prepared to loan when necessary� or words to that effect�"

Wednesday, 09/29/1999 20:42:11BMCT (Goldfly @ # 14917) "SPO-ot!! SPI-ike!!! Come here you two! Where have you been? Did you get into the neighbors yard? Did you fill in that trough Mrs. Volatility was digging? Shame on you! Awwww, you guys are so cute when your being naughty- What am I going to do with you? Ok, here's a treat! Jump Spot! UP Spike, up! Check the charts! We just recovered from a $6 spike and looks to be heading UP! What do you think? Spot $305.50."

Wednesday, 09/29/1999 21:10:57BMCT (Andrew the kiwi @ # 14921) "Spot the dog. B$309 a$305, bid higher than offer? Another day in the office with little work likely to be done�"

Wednesday, 09/29/1999 23:59:08BMCT (Hill Billy Mitchell @ 14937) "The silence is deafening!"

SteveH

(05/23/2001; 20:29:01 MDT - Msg ID: 54456)

HBM

http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/wb.exe?Perf.web+$GOLD,$USD,$EurWhat do you think of these graphs? Why does gold and the dollar rise together?

JMB

(05/23/2001; 20:39:25 MDT - Msg ID: 54457)

MOUNTAIN GOLD

What a pleasure. Your reputation precedes you, welcome Sir.

MoutainGold

(05/23/2001; 20:44:44 MDT - Msg ID: 54458)

Bull Flag Flying on Gold....Measures to $315

A very reliable technical formation,a bull flag, is evident on the June Gold contract. It measures to 315 which would be a nice breakout. Let the price tell you whats happening in Gold. The "manipulation" of Gold QUARENTEES a huge bull run. This is shooting investment fish in a barrel.

Forget about the media concerning Gold, They speak with "forked" tongue. Price tells all.

Thurs. seems to be a good buy day for Gold. Silver made a nice reversal bar. Gold and Silver are ready for big moves again. IMHO

PS Great trading for me in DOW futures tosday (10K) profit...my system made me the money. My system is being applied to Gold and Silver...looks great for the longs!!!

uponroof

(05/23/2001; 20:52:13 MDT - Msg ID: 54459)

Simply Me, MoutainGold, Tree in the Forest

Simply Me-Just the mention of silver as a superconductor, after GW's Texas snake oil 'energy sideshow', is making me happy. Just the slim possibility that silver will somehow be utilized is enough for me now. The starting gun has sounded, all in the superconductor field are now in a race to discover which alloy, or ceramic, or whatever works best. Silver is in this race.....I'm happy.

MoutainGold......how are you my friend! (I know it's you by your trademark missing 'n').....Just so you know, I have heard that you were canned for promoting your 'Stocks and TA' magazine article at GE. Unauthorized advertising is a very sore spot at GE. My crime was promoting LeMet. It is unfortunate that we were left dangling without passwords for so long. No explanation, just locked out. No matter... this place just got better. Your posts on market trends and plays are going to make this an excellent, well rounded forum. Hope you get the same winning results from this group of gold investors as you did at GE. btw-Please don't waste any time finding out if we have anyone from Texas here. Who knows, Pragmatic may just stop in to defend that backwater state. LOL

Tree in the Forest....Thanks for the warm welcome. Love your handle and posts also.

Mr Gresham

(05/23/2001; 20:54:10 MDT - Msg ID: 54460)

???

Netking: "This Gold Syndicate includes one of the most famous names in Wall Street history, the Chinese, and aggressive players from the Middle East. "

Trail Guide 5/15/2001: "I'm going fishing now. Both, for the real item and with one that knows the name of our recently caught prize fish. ... Rest up, the big walk is coming!"

That must have been some fish...

Tree in the Forest

(05/23/2001; 21:02:50 MDT - Msg ID: 54461)

MountainGold

http://csf.colorado.edu/forums/longwaves/2001/msg00282.htmlMountainGold now that we have you here, I would like to ask your opinion on a technical analysis that I found over on longwaves some time ago. I've posted this link here twice before. The analyst, Jayanth Rajan, calls for a collapse in gold's price some time soon. Presumably this would be a prelude to a blowup. The above link is the site and there is an excellent chart posted at the bottom of it. If you could take a look at it and render an opinion, I would be much obliged. Thanks.

JMB

(05/23/2001; 21:13:03 MDT - Msg ID: 54462)

MOUTAIN GOLD

HEY, be a sport and tell us as soon as you've made a trade...don't be so gauche as to declare your new found riches until after the market closes. We like to share the wealth around here. Also, no one will ask you for the secret of your system, cube, theory, or whatever. If everyone knows what it is, it will not work.

Big flag in gold...yea, I think you're right.

aunuggets

(05/23/2001; 21:24:19 MDT - Msg ID: 54463)

Black Blade

A penny saved is not enough - AARP says millions will need to work after retirement
Oh, but you can bet your @$$ that your (our) local congressmen and women will have their juicy inflation-adjusted retirement checks continuing no matter what we as constituents have to suffer from their follies. No wonder they want to do away with gun ownership !!

Tree in the Forest

(05/23/2001; 21:26:35 MDT - Msg ID: 54464)

aunuggets

Ain't it the truth!

Tree in the Forest

(05/23/2001; 21:26:49 MDT - Msg ID: 54465)

aunuggets

Ain't it the truth!

working-kirk

(05/23/2001; 21:37:08 MDT - Msg ID: 54466)

Lumber and gold

The Hoople (05/23/01; 19:58:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 54453)

As a trader do you follow other commodities and is that how you got interested in gold.

> I am a lumber futures trader and also in the lumber > industry.

> This recent rally in lumber was probably the first time
> for a long time the small spec trader was right and the
> commercial mills were caught offside

Tell us about this rally. What price did the rally start at and end at. What happened to the commercial mills since they were on the wrong side of the trade.

> I knew a couple months ago when loads began showing up
> late and the Fed cut rates 5 times there was a serious
> lack of respect for the long possibility. Hence the
> squeeze. With that said all the earmarks of a collapse
> are in place. Offerings are springing up, and cash is
> catching no bids.

Is there manupliation in lumber commodities like gold and silver or did the rate cuts just favor short and if so how?

> With cash at an $80 premium to the Nov. contract something
> must give soon. If the quota issue would
> get resolved you could halve this price in an instant.
> Bear spreading - short July/long Sep or Nov looks
> attractive. (not investment advice)

Since there is talk of possible premiums and quotas in gold and silver if the price explodes, how does quotas and cash premiums work (or don't work) with lumber.

I know lumber isn't gold or silver but with black black talking about another commodity -oil it has taught me an awful lot about the market and gold.

working-kirk

(05/23/2001; 21:47:47 MDT - Msg ID: 54467)

Big Gold Bull Just Started.....2 to 4 Year Run

MoutainGold (05/23/01; 19:35:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 54451)

Welcome MoutainGold We look forward to your analysis of the
market. While I no where come close to the minds on this forum I have tried analysising the market from a common sense perspective and basically depend on the experts here.

> Later...I'll keep posting some of my technical analysis of
> Gold, Silver, Euro and Swiss Franc...my intention is to
> make one million dollars in the great Gold & Silver
> bull.

That is a good goal. However you may want to slightly change your goal. My goal is to evenually own 4000 one ounce gold coins. I have 3998 to go. One million dollars is paper money and as you have learned on this forum paper and gold clash. However 4000 gold coins is slightly over a
million dollars today and who know how much it will be in the future.

Black Blade

(05/23/2001; 22:14:43 MDT - Msg ID: 54468)

RE: aunuggets (05/23/01; 21:24:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 54463)

aunuggets,

Our rulers (politicians) and their henchmen (Federal employees)do not have to pay into Social Security. They have private "mutual fund" type investments. There are special privileges that come from serving the rulers as muscle (enforcers) - being "special" and better than the serfs (us). That is why gold ownership is a good way to gety around these crooks. Easy to pass along to hiers and barter without paying tribute to and beyond the prying eyes of the Federal Mafia. In a way, it is better than stashing cash in an offshore bank or trust. It can be accumulated and hidden. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/23/2001; 22:35:45 MDT - Msg ID: 54469)

Energy, Petroleum, and Gold This Week

Many critics of increasing energy supply claim that conservation and reduced demand would be painless alternatives. The energy crisis in California proves that this idea is utterly false. California prides itself as a shining example of energy conservation. Yet they will swelter in this coming summer heat, and homes and factories will be dark. In the real world the rapid expansion of economic growth means that more energy must be found. If we want to sustain economic growth, we need more energy. The great Bull Market of the 1990's was fueled with "cheap" energy. Those days are long gone.

If the population of the US continues to grow as seems likely, we will need to expand our energy infrastructure, in short we need more power. California's power problems have leaked across the state's borders. Infrastructure was not maintained and expanded because of misguided environmental regulations and a pervasive NIMBY attitude against power plants, transmission grids, and hydrocarbon supply. Conservation is not likely to help much at this point as the expanded energy intensive "New Economy" has outstripped available supply and with utilities operating at 95% capacity, it is a disaster waiting to happen. Amazingly the voters in California and even the Pacific Northwest voted to not have increased energy available. They (the voting majority) got exactly what they voted for. Now they snivel and whine about the high costs of energy and the constant threats of rolling blackouts. Sen. Barbara "Boxcar" Boxer (D-CA) is "appalled" that President George Bush is not considering price caps. Yet higher prices stimulate conservation.

The higher costs of energy have squeezed profit margins as reflected by lowered corporate earnings. The country has slipped into recession and the threat of inflation is very real as the higher costs of energy are passed along to the consumer. Oil prices recently spiked higher to about $30.00/bbl even though there was a slight increase in inventories and amid rumors that there will be no change in OPEC quotas at the next meeting . Reformulated gasoline stocks have 1.2 million barrels according to the API, and decreased by 1.4 million barrels according to the EIA. Refineries continue to run flat out at near full capacity. Refinery utilization increased by 1.7 percentage points to 95.2% according to the API, and increased by 1.8 percentage points to 97.9% according to the EIA. As refineries are stretched to the limit, any accident or shutdown for maintenance can be critical as more than 60 grades of reformulated fuels are needed for the various environmental mandated regions across the US and the more than 30 "boutique" fuels for various uses. Any problem at any refinery will at least result in regional price spikes. So far any shortfall has been made up with "finished" fuels from European refiners. Those imports have fallen off and are not likely to be made up for with additional imports. The result will likely be lower stocks and higher fuel prices as we head into the summer driving season. That means that prices will remain high and transported goods will cost more. In other words - inflation, even though energy is not counted in the core rates and "seasonality" filters for fuels will come into play for BLS calculations as we head into the summer.

Gold prices surged this week on rumors of the Bank of China gold purchases and the dishoarding of US paper. No confirmation, however, - no denials either. Lease rates for gold bounced over 2% again and there are still rumors that one or two Central Banks are recalling their gold loans. The gold carry trade appears to be nearing an end as Fed rate cuts and higher lease rates make the carry trade practice less appealing, and encourages funds and producers to buy back gold and "clear the books." Gold prices have now fallen back to pre-rally prices so now there is still time to accumulate gold at low bargain-basement prices. As energy prices continue to take a toll on the economy, gold will break loose as confidence in the economy wanes. The recent rapid gold price surge illustrates how rapidly sentiment can change. Gold has performed well in the past during times of economic uncertainty and the energy crisis is helping to deliver miserable corporate returns.

- Black Blade

justamereBear

(05/23/2001; 22:45:42 MDT - Msg ID: 54470)

MoutainGold Jorneyman Black Blade WorkingKirk

MoutainGold Welcome!!

Working Kirk 54467
Well Said !!!!

Journeyman 54449
These guys find a politically correct spin to support whatever cause they want to espouse, whenever they want to espouse it, and whatever the cause, second by second, don't they? When I want something, I need it. And when you need something, it is frivolous.

Black Blade 54448
I have already seen some trial balloons about raising the retirement age. Matter of fact, "Well we will just have to raise the retirement age." statements. And very little howl, so the populace is resigned. Soon retirement age will be 90 or 100 years. Now that will solve our funding problems, won't it? There ain't gonna be no retirement for a whole lotta folks. Just death.

Feeling a bit cynical today, I guess

j'Bear

The Hoople

(05/23/2001; 22:47:42 MDT - Msg ID: 54471)

working-kirk

I only trade lumber along with gold & silver. I follow other commodities but believe if you only focus on 2 or 3 it's how you become and remain successful. I began gold and silver accumulation and paper hedge to offset risk of a housing collapse that seems a likely consequence of the equity mania coming to an end. When it didn't work I pursued answers and wound up here.

Re: lumber ranges, the rally began basically from $185mbf and peaked at $372mbf this week. 2 limit down days have followed with app. 50 cars in the limit pool today. Commercials have overproduced for 2 years and when housing hit a wall last fall it appeared to be getting worse. Many were quick to lock in any rally and suddenly found short positions $100 offsides. Unlike the gold cabal mines I find lumber mills as greedy as the next guy. They would delight in selling $500 wood if possible. They always talk bullish and regularly lie about order files and lead times. In other words they believe in their product. Therefore I just don't see manipulation other than an occasional local reaming you on a bad fill. Since quotas and tariffs involve Canadian dumping issues I just don't see correlation to gold's relentless orchestrated suppression. Lumber to me isn't an inflation blinker light warning danger like gold. Quite the contrary people desire housing inflation just like they desire stock market gains. It's amusing to me that anything you own you desire higher prices, anything being sold to you you want the opposite. High gas prices are bad, high home prices are good. When Greenspan marvels at the "wealth effect" he is basically marvelling at desirable inflation.

elevator guy

(05/23/2001; 23:11:03 MDT - Msg ID: 54472)

Let all those critics of the enveloping horn-

Stand back in fear as the enemy is run through with "long" lances!

God bless GATA!

Gandalf the White

(05/23/2001; 23:24:55 MDT - Msg ID: 54473)

SHHHHHH!!! SPOT is awakening !!

Don't tell GS !!
<;-)

Black Blade

(05/23/2001; 23:28:24 MDT - Msg ID: 54474)

Sun key to Mayan misery?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/sci/tech/newsid_1337000/1337859.stm
Snippit:

The ancient Mayans may have had good reason for their fascination with the heavens, new research by climate historians suggests. It seems that the Mayan homeland in central America was plagued by droughts which appear to have followed a cycle determined by the Sun.

Researchers at the University of Florida, US, analyzed sediments from a lake on the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico and found a pattern of drought repeating every 208 years. The pattern matches a cycle of brightening and dimming in the Sun. "It looks like changes in the Sun's energy output are having a direct effect on the climate of the Yucatan and causing the recurrence of drought, which is in turn influencing the Maya evolution," said David Hodell, lead author of the study.

Black Blade: Obviously Global Warming is not a new phenomena caused by man. These events have occurred repeatedly throughout geologic time. The hypothesis that Global warming is caused by man is an amazing stretch of the imagination. The lack of any credible physical evidence should be a clue. Chicken Littles need some cause to give their lives meaning. The most likely causes of Global warming are Coronal Mass Ejections, and the ~23,000 year Milankovich Cycles (Apogee, Perigee and Precession of the Earth's changing elliptical orbit about the sun). I think that we are safe from Global Warming for now and I don't see so-called Greenhouse gases having more than a negligible effect. Could go into "carbon sinks," etc. but another time perhaps.

Black Blade

(05/24/2001; 00:02:02 MDT - Msg ID: 54475)

Placer's Montana mine win three-month reprieve

http://www.business.com/directory/industrial_goods_and_services/materials/mining_and_minerals/news/full_story/index.asp?uuid=7D44E4B7-2499-4C8D-A425-6D85596F2D82&source=Reuters
Snippit:

Placer, like most producers in the western United States, has faced increased costs as the region buckles under insufficient generating capacity and growing demand. Soaring electricity prices have forced companies such as Placer and Barrick Gold corp. to lobby for cheaper contracts and seek alternative power sources.

Black Blade: Placer Dome's Golden Sunlight Mine gets a 3 month reprieve to process and mill the ore stockpile. Rumor is that Barrick and Newmont had some high level discussions in Nevada not long ago about high energy costs. It appears that the groveling might have paid off.

Golden Dreams All!

View Yesterday's Discussion.

Netking

(05/24/2001; 01:11:20 MDT - Msg ID: 54476)

Debt, The Dollar & Gold / Mountain Gold

http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htmUSA's current public debt $5,658,520,030,420.14 (May 22nd)

"In a country whose currency is not convertible into gold, inflation leads to its continuous devaluation in terms of foreign currencies." Michael A. Heilperin

"Until government administrators can so identify the interests of government with those of the people and refrain from defrauding the masses through the device of currency depreciation for the sake of remaining in office, the wiser ones will prefer to keep as much of their wealth in the most stable and marketable forms possible - forms which only the precious metals provide." lgin Groseclose

"Gold would have value if for no other reason than that it enables a citizen to fashion his financial escape from the state." William F. Rickenbacker

"Gold will be around, gold will be money when the dollar and the euro and the yuan and the ringgitt are mere memories." Richard Russell
----------------------------------------------------------
MoutainGold(54451)Sir,I'm sure all warmly welcome you & your wisdom to this, the best PM forum there is. A number of others have had their posting rights "suddenly removed" without explanation(from that "other place")for posting in some cases a harmless link to another gold forums news/views.I say their loss not yours.

The Invisible Hand

(05/24/2001; 01:51:47 MDT - Msg ID: 54477)

NG update?

Black Blade or anyone:
Why is the price of natural gas again under 5 dollar?

The Invisible Hand

(05/24/2001; 02:27:04 MDT - Msg ID: 54478)

Sorry, tthis wasn't intended (checked WND after my previous post)

http://wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=22953Today's WND exclusive says that Hillary had something to do with NG prices.
By the way, WND also runs a commentary by GATA opponent Doug Casey on gold, in which Doug doesn't discuss GATA, but in which he nevertheless says that bells are ringing on gold's future.
http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=22959

The Invisible Hand

(05/24/2001; 02:44:00 MDT - Msg ID: 54479)

Sennholz and A/FOA

jinx44 (05/23/01; 07:45:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 54400)
Sennholz on the Euro
Hans F. Sennholz
The Languishing Euro

Sennholz's main critique of the fathers of the euro, and explanation of its present value, is that those fathers (and mothers) wanted to wage a war on money laundering and black-marketeering. This is an element which is absent in A/FOA's analysis. This raises the question how this element fits into that analysis. Anybody wants to fish for an answer?

Netking

(05/24/2001; 03:01:16 MDT - Msg ID: 54480)

Silver - Pearl Harbour 2001 (Ted Butler)

Ted Butler's latest. The URL soon to be posted on Cooks website. The message copied here in full as posted by Ted on Kitco.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Sixty years ago, the United States embarked on a mission of war, to save the world. It was the most remarkable war effort the world has ever seen. In a few years of war we converted an armed force from under 200,000 to over 10 million. The production of war materials and logistics was equally breathtaking. There is no doubt in my mind that this war was won because of America's Greatest Generation. The whole world, to this day, owes a debt of gratitude to America, and that generation, for literally saving the world.

My father ( the Greatest Generation's Greatest Dad ) went off to war, along with his brothers as well as my mother's brothers, and my wife's father. Those that didn't go to the front toiled at home. It was America's finest hour.

In this short article about silver I will attempt to convince you, once again, to buy real, physical silver. I'm trying, as always, to get you to think about silver in ways you haven't thought about before. I resort to historical perspective because I think the proper way to invest in silver is on a long term, physical basis rather than on a short term, leveraged, paper basis.

Silver is a war material. America cannot fight a war without it. America cannot defend herself without it. There is no more necessary and versatile war commodity than silver. It is the best conductor of electricity. It is the best conductor of heat. It is the best reflector of light. While many recognize silver as a miracle metal, few recognize just how necessary it is to defending our nation.

Sixty years ago, when Japan attacked Pearl Harbor, the US had six billion ounces of silver. One to two billion ounces were consumed in the war effort that saved the world. Now, 60 years later, the US has acknowledged that it is basically out of silver. The US has not been out of silver since the time of Washington, Jefferson and Hamilton. I want to show you just how vulnerable the US has become because it has allowed itself to be tricked out of its silver.

The US has never fought a modern war, starting with World War II, with zero silver stockpiles. Not Korea. Not Vietnam. Not the Gulf War. Never. If there is another war it will be the first without a silver stockpile. Yet silver has never been more important to a war effort. We have never relied on electronics and high-tech weaponry for our national defense as we do today. Let's face it, if there is a next war it won't involve the conscription of millions of regular citizens to be foot soldiers. It will be fought in a modern manner. And none of our modern weapons of war could exist without silver. Not the missiles, not the aircraft, not the ships and submarines, not the torpedoes, not the batteries, not the lasers, not the surveillance photographs, not the solar-packs, not the night-vision equipment, nothing! Oh, some may say, we could substitute an inferior commodity. But would anyone seriously suggest we defend our nation other than the best way possible?

I'm not a military analyst, but my study of history tells me clearly that the best way to avoid war is to be prepared for war. A strong defense prevents war. An enemy is unlikely to attack if it does not sense vulnerability. We all know the US isn't about to start a war, or attack without provocation. Despite any criticism that America generates, that is not how the US operates. Its citizens would not tolerate it.

We have gone through wars and cycles since World War II. Our most recent cycle has witnessed the end of the Cold War and the self-destruction of our former enemy, the Soviet Union. We don't wake up every day worrying about mutual nuclear destruction. As a result, we have allowed our military to downsize. That was normal and good. But that doesn't mean enemies have disappeared forever.

What prompted me to write this piece, is the emergence recently of possible new enemies - the rogue terrorist states and also Red China. I'm not interested in debating whether my statement is politically correct or not. If you see it differently, let's leave it at that. Red China is bad news. I don't have anything against the Chinese people. I have everything against their totalitarian government. If anyone will have a conflict with the US, it will be Red China.

Fortunately, as a result of our downed Navy plane, our leaders appear to have awakened to this threat. This is where silver comes in. Read the newspapers, follow the debate. We are now likely to embark on a historic military buildup. This is a most important responsibility of the United States Government - national defense. It's not social security, not medicare; not education and not energy. Without a strong national defense nothing else matters.

And this historic military buildup which you will see unfolding before you, if you look, will be a special buildup. It will be a hardware buildup. It will not involve a buildup of the infantry. It will involve the production of missiles, sophisticated aircraft, ships, and weapons of all types, including space weapons and lasers. Every single bit of hardware will require silver. More silver than was ever needed before. Yet the US, for the first time in its history, has no silver. They have recently transferred the last of the silver from its National Defense Stockpile to the Mint for coin production. Think about that for a moment. Why was silver in the National Defense Stockpile in the first place?

Here I have to mention the Silver Users Association. They are the prime culprit in why the U.S. has no silver left. They have lobbied to have the government dispose of their silver so they could use it. I took them to task in a recent article as a group that flaunts the anti-trust laws. Let me add another charge. I think their actions in procuring our country's silver at a highly favorable price is grossly self-serving and unpatriotic.

There is nothing you or I can do about our government's missing silver. It's gone. The problem is not in where will we get the tens of millions of ounces for the mintage of Silver Eagles over the next few years. If the Mint stops producing silver coins the world won't end. The problem is where will the United States get the hundreds of millions of ounces of silver necessary for our national defense. Without an adequate national defense, the world could go up in smoke.

Defense contractors can no longer buy silver cheaply from the government stockpile. They will have to procure it on the open market at much higher prices. This expense will be billed to the government and the taxpayers. And, in case there's a chronic shortage, it would have been nice for the government to hold on to a supply of this critical precious metal. Why should taxpayers be forced to pay sharply higher prices for silver in the future after receiving low prices as the government sold? Nor is it just about price. It's a question of availability of a critical item in a shortage. Maybe they won't be able to get it in a timely fashion. I intend to submit this article to the appropriate members of congress and the administration. This is an issue that concerned citizens should raise.

You don't need me to paint a clearer picture. I don't care about the stock market. I don't care about the dollar. I don't care about interest rates or inflation. I don't care whether precious metals back our currency. I don't care about stupid stories about silver coming from India or Red China. I don't care about the charts. I don't care if silver is 5 dollars, or 4 dollars. This country has none left. This country needs it for its survival like never before. Forget the investment opportunity of a lifetime for a moment. That's a bonus. Buyers and holders of real silver may bail out Uncle Sam down the road. Let's hope we never have to seriously deploy our arsenal. Good luck to you and good luck to America.

CoBra(too)

(05/24/2001; 03:05:30 MDT - Msg ID: 54481)

@ Stranger - Thank you Sir for most timely Alert

and GATA for delivering the DJ Newswire Goodies. That will certainly shake some people up - the epic battle
for POG can be viewed graphically - just look at daily gold chart at Kitco this morning in Europe, gone seismographic.

@ auspec, Sir you have mail - as always good to talk to you.

As I recall a book from the early 70ies by Wall Street Veteran Gerald Loeb "The Battle for Investment Survival", somebody may write a book soon titled "The Battle for Survival of the $-Hegemony". In the end the barbarous relic, Gold has always come out ahead.

Thank - cb2

PS: MK and Marie thank you too and more paper will be arriving "Swiftly" for reality.

CoBra(too)

(05/24/2001; 03:44:59 MDT - Msg ID: 54482)

Netking - Ted Butler at his best -

I've been following Ted and David Morgan for some time and - these guys have been responsible for some of the Ag-stocks I hold and I was even able to "smuggle" some physical Ag past MK's watchful eyes, though with his help. Don't know about his approval :-) - thanks for posting the article
and regards to you - cb2

CoBra(too)

(05/24/2001; 04:05:10 MDT - Msg ID: 54483)

Must have missed Lady Leigh's slip of the (pass-)word

I would pro'lly have been tempted to slip in a quip about Sacher chocolate cakes, which reminds me it may be time for Another (pun respectfully intended) one. Hope you are well and good on ya taking it like a m.. uh, uh lady and all the best to you and yours.

... uponroof and Mountain Gold's arrival at usagold is an extra bonus, warmest welcome to you gentlemen. It seems like the arrival of old friends ... makes you think what's going on at the other, respected si(d)te ...

Thank you - cb2

The Invisible Hand

(05/24/2001; 04:16:52 MDT - Msg ID: 54484)

Euro to be introduced with help of army

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/et?ac=005083190161703&rtmo=rQFmDmEX&atmo=rrrrrrrq&pg=/et/01/5/24/wfra24.html
In most euro-zone countries details of how the new euro money will be moved around and by whom are being kept secret for obvious security reasons. In Germany, there has been talk of border guards being drafted in for special euro-protection duties.
Normal police leave has been cancelled in Berlin for the first weeks of 2002 because of fears over crime and security concerns. Several countries, including Belgium and Luxembourg, have discussed using their armies to assist the changeover.

=============

Perhaps the owners of black money will be able to have their revenge. Interesting times.

Topaz

(05/24/2001; 04:19:10 MDT - Msg ID: 54485)

Good news-Bad news

Good News:- Euro/Gold at lifetime high - E330....A$/Gold $552 -
Eurozone citizens, who historically have much more respect for Au than us westies, must surely consider trading their Marks, Francs, etc for Gold in lieu of the Euro, as Au has consistently devalued E during it's short lifetime. A no-brainer for mine!
Aussie Miners (hedged) are about to feel the margin call blow-torch to the belly.....and watch those puppies scream!!
Bad news:- Three things in life are certain - Death, Taxes...and the BoE Auction result @ $268ish......next Auction still some weeks away.

Topaz

(05/24/2001; 04:26:51 MDT - Msg ID: 54486)

....further,

The Brit's are having an Election shortly....may upset the Brown/George applecart.

Topaz

(05/24/2001; 05:03:18 MDT - Msg ID: 54487)

Occasionally I flick to the Kitco Ag page (as I just did) and lo and behold, Silver (which trades mostly in NY - if the graph is correct) has done a bit of a runner in London.
Must be those expat Americans who've read Ted Butlers latest.

Black Blade

(05/24/2001; 05:59:48 MDT - Msg ID: 54488)

RE: The Invisible Hand (05/24/01; 01:51:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 54477)

You asked -

NG update?
Black Blade or anyone:
Why is the price of natural gas again under 5 dollar?

Black Blade: I am short on time right now as I'm out the door. Short answer - seasonal low. Before summer power drain as the summer heat arrives and after the winter cold has passed. Not as much drain on the Ute grid until the seasonal temperature extremes arrive. This happens every year where NG prices are under less pressure. The in the Fall. Of course if storage shows an unexpected inventory low prior to summer or winter, then NG prices should rise correspondingly. Maybe I will address this in detail later, however, duty calls. Cheers!

uponroof

(05/24/2001; 06:41:16 MDT - Msg ID: 54489)

The inside market 'pros' (O'Connell) are waking up.

Interesting e-mail from goArmyO'Connell comes to the 'revelation' that inflationary concerns are only partially responsible for last weeks rally.... duh!.... and these folks are paid to know what's going on ahead of time!

Comment on Gold rally: inflation threat or possible end to BoE sales?
Date 05/24/2001

Name Rhona O'Connell
Email Address
Subject short covering and lease rates

My understanding is that the rally at the end of last week stemmed only partially from inflationary concerns. Of more importance is the fact that the risk-reward ratio for the shorts, when gold lease rates are high and money market rates are falling, has now become unattractive - especially since the market has held off its lows since April. Have just returned from the LBMA conference in Istanbul,
which was teeming with bankers of both the commercial and Central varieties - don't expect lease rates to come down in a hurry. Central Bankers are lending further down the yield curve (1-2 yrs) and are reluctant now to accept below 2% for any maturity - partly because of counterparty risk. There is very little liquidity at the short end and this is the pirmary reeaon behind the level of the rates. This
reduces the likelihood of short side trading in the forseeable future - indeed some "funds" had reversed positions by the end of last week and trading from the long side. Nice move, good consolidation, expect more gains but no real fireworks.

The Jeffords defection will add considerable uncertainty to the course of politics followed....not good for wall street.

Have a great day!

Mr Gresham

(05/24/2001; 06:49:35 MDT - Msg ID: 54490)

ORO (05/23/01; 16:34:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 54438)

My argument for the "ORO page", made once again...

JMB

(05/24/2001; 07:34:36 MDT - Msg ID: 54491)

LEIGH

No coffee today.....please.

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/24/2001; 07:40:43 MDT - Msg ID: 54492)

Mr Gresham @ # 54490 - argument for "ORO page"

Sir I read much ORO and little FOA, however, I believe that adding new pages is a small way to handle a big job. There are many who have much to offer, some "one timers", and some "seldom timers", who must finish concrete and raise and educate their own children, and on and on.

There are many times that I just cannot wade through the wealth of information in the archives to find a needed piece of information or to possibly track a particular poster's offerings sequentially looking for consistency and maturity in thinking. I could ramble on about this subject but let me just say: - What we need is a good search engine!!! We need one and we need it badly. A couple of days ago I paid $100 dollars for a program with just information on a disk for the simple reason that it had a good search facility within the program and cut and paste capabilities. I would gladly pay $100 or whatever might be equitable, towards the cost needed to have a search engine for our forum.

Very respectfully,

HBM

Tom

(05/24/2001; 07:44:36 MDT - Msg ID: 54493)

MOUNTAIN GOLD

Welcome my mam I am GLAD TO SEE YA!
My wife is a principal too!
Ray on the other sites.

tedw

(05/24/2001; 07:45:05 MDT - Msg ID: 54494)

Global Loan Sharks

http://www.usagold.comA quote from Global Loan Sharks (How the IMF and World Bank
debase nations'steal wealth, and undermine sovereignty):

There is concern today, and evidence for such concern, that should the gold price be allowed to find its natural level, there may not be enough gold in the market to satisfy the bullion banks obligations to Central Banks. The gold market is an opaque one, and has long been subject to manipulation by central banks.....But what would it mean if the supply of Gold is critically short of what is needed to repay the bullion banks gold borrowings to the central banks should the price rise,which it inevitably will when the dollar inevitably weakens? (As is, Greenspans rate cuts are dropping fiat interest rates dangerously close to rising gold lease rates). It would mean bankruptcy for the bullion banks. When Gold did briefly skyrocket in the autmn of 1999 , market observes noticed that Kuwait suddenly lent its Gold reserves to the bank of England,followed later by Pakistans gold reserves. Were these patchwork operations? IF THE ANSWER IS YES, THEN THE WORLD IS SO DANGEROUSLY EXPOSED, CIVILIZATION ITSELF COULD BE AT RISK WHEN THE MARKET CORRECTION OF ALL TIME OCCURS.

**************************************************
GLOBAL LOAN SHARKS IS WRITTEN BY INVESTIGATIVE REPORTER ANNE WILLAMSON ( A SMART COOKIE). ITS AVAILABLE AT WORLD NET DAILY. I THINK ANNE HAS A WEBSITE BUT I DONT KNOW THE LINK.

Ted

JCTex

(05/24/2001; 07:48:10 MDT - Msg ID: 54495)

Big buyers

Been out of pocket, so I don't know what has been said on this topic, but my sources [very good] are telling me that George Soros was the big buyer last week, and has been for some time, now.

Journeyman

(05/24/2001; 08:09:02 MDT - Msg ID: 54496)

A little missing history - - - and a couple of Questions of the Day - - - for any who care to indulge

http://www.google.com/search?q=cache:aUyS2vSx1WA:utenti.tripod.it/ias/revfiles/1_00.pdf+%22Triffin%27s+dilemma%22&hl=en
Hi ALL!

The following is an excerpt from an interesting, basically socialist, rendition of monetary history that helps fill-in some of the details of some of the discussions here at USAGOLD. The document has definite undercurrents of FOA/Another running through it as well. (I posted several paragraphs from it yesterday [Journeyman (05/23/01; 19:12:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 54449)] to indirectly illustrate the difficulties folks would have dollarizing - - - or euro-izing - - - the world.)

Despite a socialist flavor, the source document [original available at http://utenti.tripod.it/ias/revfiles/1_00.pdf]is a very good, if long, read. Once the author (Nicoletta Mosconi) dismisses the gold standard, pretty much out-of-hand, she proceeds to document the serially worsening problems with the fiat alternatives.

Note the negative tone used in references to the gold standard (and the nebulous statement of anti-gold positions) - - - and how the problems caused by fiat are initially glossed over.

If I have time I'll try to post other excerpts - - - but you can read the whole thing yourself by clicking on the link in the header.

=====================
1.2 The Post-Keynesian World.

The countries defeated in World War II thus accumulated huge
quantities of dollars, whose convertibility into gold became increasingly
aleatory as the volume of dollars in circulation outside the United States
became immeasurably greater than the quantity of gold available to cover
them. This was the form assumed by the "reparations" following the
Second World War. The convertibility of the dollar was "suspended" on
15 August 1971. There were two alternative monetary plans, both pure
fantasy, on the table when Nixon imposed the dollar standard on the
world. The French plan, by Rueff, was a flight into the past, and the Triffin
plan, a flight into the future.

Rueff had enormous influence on De Gaulle's monetary policy.
While starting from a precise diagnosis of the evils of a gold-exchange
standard, which inexorably precipitated the slide towards the dollar-
standard, he did not subscribe to the policy which corresponded to the
course of history (in 1959, the Action Committee for the United States of Europe, chaired by Jean Monnet, had proposed the creation of "a
European reserve fund" to which the member states of the EEC would
contribute at least some of their own reserves to be jointly administered);
instead he committed himself to the impossible dream of a national
response to American hegemony in the return to gold.8 The only result
achieved by the French policy of converting dollar reserves into gold was
to hasten the declaration of the American currency's inconvertibility. The
return to gold contained incurable contradictions. It would have run
counter to the course of history, which pointed towards the affirmation of
representative money; it would have led back to money creation ruled by
automatism and superstition, rather than extending the control of its
correspondence to shared human aims; and finally it could never have
resisted American hegemony, based on economic and military su-
premacy. Rueff's denunciation of the "monetary sin of the West," 9 after
the American coup de main, was moving but useless.

The Keynesian idea of a world currency instead inspired Triffin's
various monetary plans, whose political feasibility increased as their
objectives became more limited. The first Triffin plan was to transform
the International Monetary Fund into a bank of the central banks. The
second suggested that balance-of-payments excesses should be turned
into deposits guaranteed by the IMF and that this institution should be
given the power of financing (or not) the currency deficits of individual
countries. This grand plan produced one small result: special drawing
rights (SDR's). These introduced into the international monetary system
a pseudo paper money, convertible into gold only to the extent that it was
convertible into dollars (whose convertibility into gold was suspended
shortly afterwards); but they do not constitute a genuine world paper
currency because their use is subjected to numerous limitations, and
above all because the decision to issue must be taken by a majority
quorum, so that both the United States and the European Union effec-
tively have a right of veto. Having come into contact with the European
federalists, on the initiative of Alfonso Iozzo, Triffin pursued a deeper
analysis of the relationship between money and power, which changed
the course of his life. He moved from the United States to his native
Belgium to dedicate himself to his third and best plan, the creation of the
European currency.

=========================

QUESTIONS OF THE DAY:

1. What well-known economic process does the following sentence, excerpted from above, indirectly indict?

"The countries defeated in World War II thus accumulated huge
quantities of dollars, whose convertibility into gold became increasingly
aleatory [dependent on chance or contingency] as the volume of dollars in
circulation outside the United States became immeasurably greater than the
quantity of gold available to cover them."

2. How could you debunk the following in an argument with a fiat proponent?

"The return to gold contained incurable contradictions. It would have run
counter to the course of history, which pointed towards the affirmation of
representative money; it would have led back to money creation ruled by
automatism and superstition, rather than extending the control of its
correspondence to shared human aims; and finally it could never have
resisted American hegemony, based on economic and military supremacy."

Regards,
Journeyman

Cavan Man

(05/24/2001; 08:24:32 MDT - Msg ID: 54497)

Netking

RE: Butler's latestIf the situation is as precarious from a national defense standpoint (ag), should there be default at the exchanges as would appear possible; could the shorts be too "short" forcing the hand of the government into mining shafts on the grounds of "national security interest"?

Much is written of the shorts in the AU market. Is the AG market short and by how much; any Venerosa type data? Sounds like someone will be taking it in the yes, you guessed it, "shorts" soon. Kind regards...CM

Leigh

(05/24/2001; 08:41:16 MDT - Msg ID: 54498)

JMB

I didn't offer you any coffee, dear friend. Hope you're well invested in silver. Nice move today, don't you think?

Journeyman

(05/24/2001; 08:44:35 MDT - Msg ID: 54499)

Long-bond dropping, markets down - - - BIG Float spoor?

Hi ALL!

When the PRICE of the long-bond drops (interest on bond increases) at the same time stocks are dropping - - -

Regards,
Journeyman

SHIFTY

(05/24/2001; 08:57:57 MDT - Msg ID: 54500)

Randy@theTower

COMMENTARY & REVIEW PageHow does one get in when the draw bridge is up?

$hifty

Journeyman

(05/24/2001; 09:01:16 MDT - Msg ID: 54501)

Price of Justice in America @ALL

Hi ALL!

~"The average American worker makes $20 per hour and lawyers, [as much as] $300 per hour. That means for the average American, one hour of justice costs ten hours of labor." -Harland Stonecipher, Pre-Paid Legal Services Chrm. & Ceo., CNBC, 8:44 AM 5/24/01

Regards,
J.

Gandalf the White

(05/24/2001; 09:05:15 MDT - Msg ID: 54502)

The 11 o'clock DIVE !!

<;-(

JMB

(05/24/2001; 09:05:31 MDT - Msg ID: 54503)

LEIGH

Oh I do like silver...kinda hard to lug around but truly a wonderful metal...amazing what God has provided, isn't it?

I know we're not into stock tips around here, that's as it should be, but I've noticed Arizona Star has caught a little bid. Is this a company that is followed by any of our Knights and Ladies?

Things sure are perking up.

MoutainGold

(05/24/2001; 09:20:31 MDT - Msg ID: 54504)

Gold & Silver Action Bullish

A major premise of technical analysis (TA) is that prices move in trends. Examining the nature of the trend gives valuable clues to the supply-demand equation.

Gold is in great shape. The anemic correction after the $13+ move indicates a very powerful up trend in force. Daily action can be deceptive...up 42 down $2 for no apparent reason. Do not get fooled by this action.

Seasonally Gold and Silver is strong staring May 31st to early August. This summer may be spectacular for Pm bulls.

Later....going golfing in Colorado mountains...taking day off after big profit in DOW futures yesterday...spend those profits.

Good Luck All

SHIFTY

(05/24/2001; 09:22:43 MDT - Msg ID: 54505)

Butter Flies

Looks like someone is afraid gold is going to go up.

$hifty

Gandalf the White

(05/24/2001; 09:23:08 MDT - Msg ID: 54506)

RUN Spot RUN !!!

PAPER avalanche !!!
<;-(

Galearis

(05/24/2001; 09:39:39 MDT - Msg ID: 54507)

lease rates, gold and silver spike

Such a lovely war on the charts today!Lease rates continue to spike this am and if one looks on the Kitco charts one can see what they have done with it. As I suspected (increasingly), the $283-$285 level will be IT for the next little while and we will see "them" try to defend the $2 rule at these values until the next BOE auction. However, IMO the entertainment value just went up.
(Barrick is SQUIRMING! and the modest spike in the long rates might indicate some frantic hedgeing from this bunch.)
The markets have stablized somewhat and we should expect "them" to start a major offensive about now. At this time it looks like the cabal has expended some ammunition stopping yet another rally.

But on the other hand: Another said that "gold and the USD would rise together"; are we at this historic moment?

Another interesting wrinkle: the silver spike occurred at 3:00 EST and has apparently taken gold with it this time.

A sign?

Accolades for Ted Butler. Another interesting read. The interesting/significant point spun out here is the comment about silver dumping by China. NOBODY, I repeat, NOBODY knows that any dumping has actually taken place, and similar to those stories about gold dumps these items should be considered disinformation and specious tales of nefarious intent.

But that's entertainment!

A warm welcome to our new posters all!

G.

Journeyman

(05/24/2001; 09:45:09 MDT - Msg ID: 54508)

Reasons for dollar strength -- fishing for an answer @The Invisible Hand msg#: 54479, Sennholz and A/FOA, jinx44 msg#: 54400, ALL

Hi Sir Invisible!

You observe that:

"Sennholz's main critique of the fathers of the euro, and
explanation of its present value, is that those fathers (and
mothers) wanted to wage a war on money laundering and
black-marketeering. This is an element which is absent in A/FOA's
analysis. This raises the question how this element fits into
that analysis. Anybody wants to fish for an answer?"

I'll fish a bit. The answer may be as simple as, "A/FOA, like the
Eurocrats, simply failed to take this "black-market/foreign
savers effect" into account.

The devil is indeed in the details: by mixing Euro introduction
with anti-free market, ah, ah-hum, that's anti BLACK-market
measures, the Eurocrats have inadvertantly increased demand for
dollars, thus driving their price up, particularly vs. the euro.

Hans Sennholz puts numbers to this "black-market effect,"
involving as he writes, 16% of the European economy, that make it
one plausible explanation for what Larry Elliott of The Guardian
described this way on Monday May 21, 2001:

Don't worry if you're baffled by this [strong dollar], because a
lot of clever people in
the world of economics are baffled by it as well. "The rise
in the dollar
since February has been puzzling", the Bank of England said
in its
inflation report last week, "as it has been associated with
falls in US
growth forecasts and short-term interest rate expectations
relative to
some of its major trading partners". Loose translation: all
our models say
the dollar should be falling like a stone but for some
reason it is going
up.
The International Monetary Fund cannot explain it either.
It devoted a
special section in last month's world economic outlook
(WEO) to the
factors driving the weakness of the euro and the strength
of the dollar,
which it said seemed "to defy explanations from
conventional exchange rate
models".

But then the Austrian economists do usually tend to be a step or
so ahead.

Regards,
Journeyman

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/24/2001; 09:48:26 MDT - Msg ID: 54509)

SteveH @ # 54456

http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/wb.exe?Perf.web+$GOLD,$USD,$EurSir, Thanks for the link.

That is quite a chart! I will make good use of it. If I can come up with profitable comments I will post them.

Every time I think of you, the word "convergence" comes to mind.

I am still pondering the "broken link", so called.

Very respectfully,

HBM

Au-some

(05/24/2001; 10:16:06 MDT - Msg ID: 54510)

R Powell re msg # 54429

I often experienced disconnect with my local server until I complained about it to an IT who works where I'm employed. He suggested I open my Eudora mail file and leave it open while I go navigating the internet. He explained that a 20-30 minute timed disconnect is typical but the mail file over ride keeps the line open for incoming mail?????? Seems to work for me.

megatron

(05/24/2001; 10:18:02 MDT - Msg ID: 54511)

Swiss Franc

Has anyone noticed the swiss franc getting murdered lately!
They must certainly be dumping lots of gold. Just as Canada did, when thier currency tanks.

Canuck

(05/24/2001; 10:19:53 MDT - Msg ID: 54512)

Wow!

What a struggle in N.Y. today.

Are we witnessing the death of 'paper' gold?

Mr Gresham

(05/24/2001; 10:20:18 MDT - Msg ID: 54513)

Euro article at Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/feature/feature990712877.htmlIf the black market currency trade-ins are favoring the dollar, how would that show up in the Fed's statistics? Planeloads of greenbacks winging their way to Moscow, Warsaw & Prague? Think I'll check the BEP's $100-bill printing stats...

megatron

(05/24/2001; 10:20:36 MDT - Msg ID: 54514)

Look out below!

Someone (Swiss?) stepped up to the plate this morning.

Mr Gresham

(05/24/2001; 10:27:26 MDT - Msg ID: 54515)

Currency

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/H6/Current/Currency seems to be up about 4% the past year, while M-1 is flat; how much paper exchanging would it take to prop up the dollar, and what would be the transmission of those exchanges back to the "paper" paper markets at the banks, where the exchange rates would be visible? After all, the dollars are being held "under mattresses", and the paper Dmarks et al are being turned in by the currency market-makers?

Mr Gresham

(05/24/2001; 10:34:39 MDT - Msg ID: 54516)

Currency: Big Hmmmm...

http://www.bep.treas.gov/figures.htmBEP used to give the production figures month-by-month. (They were hammering on the hundreds for Y2k.) Now, they don't even give complete Y2000 figures, and no current stats. But I'll bet those planes are showering Eastern Europe with $100s.

turkey hunter

(05/24/2001; 10:40:01 MDT - Msg ID: 54517)

Russia might sell some gold

http://www2.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/newsArticles.asp?guid=%7BEAB934A9%2DF041%2D460F%2DA300%2D3491A833DA9F%7D&Potential Russian sale rocks gold price in Europe

5/24/2001 12:03:00 PM
LONDON, May 24 (Reuters) - The price of gold plunged in afternoon trading in Europe after reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin was willing to sell part of Russia's gold reserves to help flood victims in eastern Siberia.

By 1510, spot gold was indicated at $278.70, a spectacular fall from intra-day highs of around $287 and Wednesday's New York close of 283.50/284.00.

Analyst Andy Smith, of Mitsui, said the news from Russia had served as a good excuse for funds, which went long during this week's blistering rally, to restructure their positions.

"Anybody with a long position is looking to exit - this is a skittish market lacking in depth...but as long as lease rates remain high, though, it isn't going to be an absolute washout," he said.

On Monday, a blistering rally sent gold prices in Europe to an 11-month high on the back of aggressive fund buying triggered by U.S. inflation worries.

News agencies quoted Putin as saying that he would sign the decree on gold and diamond sales provided "a clear scheme is provided to me, intended to send help to people now in the streets."

More than 17,000 people have abandoned their homes because of the floods.

There was no indication of the quantity of gold Russia might sell.

"My feeling is that the market is over-reacting. So far, nobody can tell how many tonnes Russia is going to sell, so I don't understand this nervousness," a trader said.

"Are we talking about one tonne or about 100 tonnes? Nobody knows at this moment," the trader said.

Russia is the world's 15th biggest holder of gold with 388.7 tonnes, according to World Gold Council figures.

Bullion's afternoon fix was at $286.05 a troy ounce, higher than the morning fix at $283.45. The price briefly touched above $287.30 before falling on talk of the possible Russian sale.

Spot silver was last indicated at $4.57/$4.59, versus Wednesday's New York close of $4.565/$4.585. The metal was fixed at 462.50 cents a troy ounce, highest since February 7 and up from Wednesday's 452.00 cents.

Platinum was unchanged at $610.00/$616.00, flat on the last close. Palladium was unmoved at $638.00/$653.00 versus $635.00/$650.00 at the New York close after hardly any business all day.

REUTERS

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/24/2001; 10:40:47 MDT - Msg ID: 54518)

Tech-assistance for Shifty.....Commentary & Review page

http://member.usagold.com/commentaryreview.htmlYour question: "How does one get in when the draw bridge is up?"

The link (given above) can always be found at the home page and at the Daily Market Report page (which also contains one of the best metals-currency-economics newsfeed found on the web today).

At such time as you either became a client of Centennial or else requested a trial subscription via the "Request Info" link at the top of the page, Marie or Jill would have initiated the process to create your personal access codes for the Commentary page. Typically, your username is your last name (first letter capitalized) and your password is your e-mail address.

If that doesn't seem to work for you, send Jill an e-mail at jill@usagold.com to request an indication of the precise codes assigned to you....your personal "keys to the Castle". ---Randy

uponroof

(05/24/2001; 10:55:57 MDT - Msg ID: 54519)

Putin causes POG hit

still learning the ropes of free market political speaches.....Putin in a speach to flood ravaged Siberia mentioned that he would sell gold and diamonds to raise funds for the flood victums. The Russian air force is actually bombing the ice flows to relieve pressure so the waters subside.

Does Putin know what he's doing. Of course not. By making such a foolish statement the gold he is suggesting to sell just lost value.

Putin is a politician talking to Russian voters, this is not the old U.S.S.R. Will he sell Russia's gold? What about their huge plats reserves? IMHO Russia cannot sell their gold without risk of a currency collapse.

btw-POG has gained back 1/3 of the initial 9 buck drop.

Dow Jones Newswires
Siberia Region May Sell Gold To Fund Flood Zone Rebuild
Dow Jones Newswires

YAKUTSK, Russia (AP)--President Vladimir Putin on Thursday toured a remote Siberia region that has been devastated by floods and promised to find federal funds to help rebuild homes destroyed by the rushing waters.

Putin also said he was prepared to sign a decree authorizing sale of gold and high-quality diamonds from the mineral-rich Yakutia region that belong to the state to help people who had suffered losses, Russian news agencies reported.

Ice jams that have clogged the powerful Lena River have caused it to overflow resulting in a week of misery for residents of towns spread along the inland artery.

"The damage from the floods is enormous," Putin said during a meeting with regional leaders Thursday. "Tens of thousands of people" are affected.

Putin said it was vital "not to lose time." Some 42,000 people had suffered from the flood and it would be necessary to build 10,000 apartments.

Putin blamed the flooding in part on the fact that the river had not been dredged near populated areas in decades.

Meanwhile, NTV television reported that oil and gas from a refinery in the town of Lensk had leaked into the river which could cause serious ecological damage once the ice completely melts.

Financing of repair work is to be discussed in Moscow on May 29, Putin announced.

On Wednesday, the waters surged past the region's biggest city, Yakutsk, and began to fall. Villages downstream are still under threat, as emergency workers have not destroyed all the ice jams clogging the river.

Siberian rivers flood regularly because they flow from south to north. The snow that melts in the south, where the spring thaw begins earlier, runs into ice in the still-frozen north.

Old Yeller

(05/24/2001; 11:01:34 MDT - Msg ID: 54520)

Here comes the cavalry

Astounding,just yesterday we wondering where the next cavalry bearing physical gold was going to come from and today we get our answer.

Russia?Talk about a left field event.What on earth does this mean to the $US/euro battle?Why the big production about selling gold for humanitarian purposes?We've seen this one before.It would seem as someone is sending a petty big message here,or am I over-reacting to an insignificant bump in the trail?

turkey hunter

(05/24/2001; 11:01:56 MDT - Msg ID: 54521)

Russian Gold

Last week I read that the EU wanted Russia to sell oil for Euro's. I wonder if this gold announcement has anything to do with Russia tying the knot with Europe, and gold is a down payment?

SHIFTY

(05/24/2001; 11:02:41 MDT - Msg ID: 54522)

Randy

I will try it.
Thanks
$hifty

Old Yeller

(05/24/2001; 11:05:48 MDT - Msg ID: 54523)

Unintentional oxymoron

Petty big message should read pretty big message.

SteveH

(05/24/2001; 11:21:32 MDT - Msg ID: 54524)

HBM

Thanks.

You know, the Ruskie thing that allegedly knocked the market today for a loop seems awfully well-timed, eh?

For those amongst us that don't believe in coincidences, this is one of those occassions that makes me ask, "Now, was this meant to do what it did, when it did; or, was this a completely unrelated event?"

It may be that they (the Russians) aren't ready for a higher gold price and somebody called in a favor. Yep, I favor that explaination. What do you think?

megatron

(05/24/2001; 11:27:09 MDT - Msg ID: 54525)

Russian Altruists?

Since when did anyone in Moscow give a s$$#t about 'the people'? NEVER. This is another sad instance of politics trying to cover failed monetary policy/adventures with the altruist blabber. What was the last one? The Swiss fund for the humanities? People outside this forum are obviously 'stupider' than I had previously believed.

The Stranger

(05/24/2001; 11:28:02 MDT - Msg ID: 54526)

Right.....

Russia is a charity case. She is STARVED for capital. In fact, if it would help, I'm sure Putin would sell his own grandmother to raise some. Just how much gold do you think has been sitting around collecting dust in those Russian vaults, anyway? Believe me, the net increase in world gold supply from this announcement is absolute ZERO. Those who sold this morning will be buying back tomorrow at higher prices.

Keep your eyes on lease rates. That is where the big story is unfolding.

megatron

(05/24/2001; 11:32:35 MDT - Msg ID: 54527)

And another thing...

I'll wager 1 Ruble that this pathetic 'jesture of humanity' will get maximum coverage in all major financial outlets for the 'dolts' to see. Those people would kill thier own mother for her kidney if they needed one.
I laughed, I cried,.......

Tree in the Forest

(05/24/2001; 11:36:11 MDT - Msg ID: 54528)

MarkeTalk

Yesterday, MarkeTalk posted the following:

MarkeTalk(5/23/01; 13:06:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 54416)

"...However, what has really caught my attention is the following information, courtesy of GATA and one of this site's posters, The Hoople. The Hoople told me today that the open interest in the June Comex gold contract has increased since last week--instead of decreasing as is usually the case--as the contract approaches First Notice Day. The exact number of increase was 5,950 contracts as of May 18th--which was the day when gold jumped $14/oz! This now puts the total open interest for the June contract at 71,000 out of a total open interest of 133,000 for all contract months. Now, this is quite exciting because First Notice Day for the June contract is Thursday, May 31st. IF the majority of longs do not roll out into August, October or December, then we will know that a classic short squeeze is underway and prices will skyrocket!..."

MarkeTalk, anybody who has been reading my posts since I started posting last January, knows that I have been jumping up and down, trying to get people to pay attention to what is happening on Comex. I have stated that gold and silver will not be free until Comex defaults. Some have opined that Comex is not the issue. I disagree. I think that Comex is the focus and cause of the problem and have been looking for the possibility of a Comex default. I have also been predicting since about February, I believe, that gold would pop in the April-May time frame. When it became obvious that the action in these two months would be small potatoes compared to what was coming, I changed my prediction for the real action to July-August. As of now I stand by that prediction. What we are seeing now is small potatoes compared to what is yet to come. Here are some recent examples of what I have been saying about Comex starting with May 10. I could go back further but it is difficult without a search engine:

Tree in the Forest(5/10/01; 19:33:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 53374)
Randy-Comex gold

...Tonight we must address some interesting Comex action today. June gold has an enormous open interest of 73,278 contracts and furthermore it's up today about 6000 contracts. This is a time when traders are thinking about holding, selling or rolling over June contracts, not adding new postions! FND is May 31, 3 weeks away. People holding into June are frequently considering taking delivery. According to sector over at GE, someone is desperately trying to prop up Comex with additional gold and the word is getting out that there's a gold shortage...

Tree in the Forest(05/15/01; 19:16:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 53689)
Comex gold
Open interest for June gold rose again today by almost 1000 contracts, now sitting at about 62.5K contracts. It fell over 8000 contracts yesterday but was up on Friday

Tree in the Forest(05/17/01; 21:12:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 53835)
Comex gold
Comex June gold open interest rose again today 1256 contracts. OI now hovering around 62,000 contracts for June.

Tree in the Forest(05/18/01; 12:05:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 53885)
Comex gold
"They" are letting gold run and Comex June open interest is up a whopping 5281 contracts now at 67,341. With gold moving up, they're digging a grave for Comex! They've got 800,000+ oz in warehouse stocks much of it spoken for! How are they gonna deliver millions of oz in June? Anyone wanna sell poor Comex some gold at these stupid prices? I wanna see 'em match issuers and stoppers now! Anyone need toilet paper?

Tree in the Forest(5/21/01; 11:07:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 54223)

Cavan Man: You wrote:

Cavan Man(5/21/01; 09:48:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 54213)
beesting

If LBMA/COMEX buyers were stepping up to take delivery and it was discovered by these buyers that the cubbards were bare, wouldn't there be a rush to sell the paper? How does that work and how could we keep abreast of a that sort of dynamic? Thanks....CM

Answer to your first question: YES!
Answer to your second question: I am trying desperately to keep this board abreast of that dynamic!
June gold comex futures open interest up a whopping 5343 contracts today to 72,584. This is one week before first notice day. Specs are usually bailing at this point; instead they're charging in! The discovery "that the cubbards are bare starts when stoppers call for delivery beginning FND. Comex says "no gots" officially on LDD at the end of June, but the rush to sell paper could happen anytime in between.

Me again: MarkeTalk, I don't mind if people don't read my posts. Each must allow time for his own needs. I also don't mind if you disagree with my position. That is what we are here for. But please don't ignore me and treat me like the Invisible Man, crediting someone else for observations that I have been making for weeks if not months. "I am trying desperately to keep this board abreast of that dynamic!" That says it all. If you are going to ignore me, then why am I posting here? My time could be better spent elsewhere. I must say that I think an apology is in order.

megatron

(05/24/2001; 11:37:41 MDT - Msg ID: 54529)

if no kitco, check this chart

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYMEX_GCM1&v=i&w=1&t=f&a=8If you lose your kitco link, or want to see what the 'paper' crowd is following save this minute by minute NYMEX link.

Peter Asher

(05/24/2001; 11:37:44 MDT - Msg ID: 54530)

Another look at the Euro

From one of GE's finest.

The Euro...or..."Who's That Knocking On My Door?", cried the fair young maiden! () May 24, 09:57

Let us wander, for a short while, I have a weak heart! Through the minefield that will be the Euro over the coming six months or so. In the first place, a subject that has all but disappeared under the radar as far as the Euro is concerned, is the physical appearance of the Euro notes and coins in every E.U. country in a little over six months.

Problem number one is "the stash" that bundle of German; French; Italian and so on, currency, either legal or illegal tucked away outside of a bank or regular depository. You may not believe this but a goodly proportion of the future proud?, owners of the new Euro currency scheduled to circulate starting Jan 1, 2002, do not know that this is going to be the case! That is, they must turn in their national currency for Euros (new lamps for old?) before whatever date their own currency is demonetized or, fancy and expensive toilet paper!

How much legal tender, all these different fiats add up to in Euros will be the guess of anybody but it will be substantial and almost certainly to arrive late for the party! This sudden surge of exchangeable fiat is going to give the banking authorities fits!

Also having fits, but for a different reason are the present holders of illegal Euro swappable notes. Although a steady laundering of these piles of illegal gains has already taken place, there is still a sea of it out there. Some of it will be used to buy tangibles, real estate, cars, you get the idea. This will distort the true picture of public demand for goods until after demonetization.

Some will be converted into U.S. dollars, Swiss francs gold, silver diamonds etc. There has already been amnesty granted by some countries for some forms of illegal holdings, avert your eyes! Yeah! Right!

So far, the Euro has been, on the whole, an abstract to most all of the Eurolanders. The psychological trauma which will be felt by many, in Germany, for instance, when, before their very eyes, the beloved Mark disappears, will be an almost tangible force. Do not underestimate the unease and rebellion the authorities will face once the stark truth hits home. If the Euro is coincidentally going through a downturn at the time of this changeover, things could get real nasty.

We are not talking high financial mumbo jumbo or economic arcana here, we are talking gut feelings and these are not amenable to pie charts!

Watch the Germans, they will be the bellwether as to how smooth or rough this upcoming profound change is going to be, MARK my words!

Goldenrod.

megatron

(05/24/2001; 11:40:57 MDT - Msg ID: 54531)

AHHA!!

So THAT'S where the gold is going to come from THIS TIME to prop up the COMEX. It's all so clear now.

The Stranger

(05/24/2001; 11:44:26 MDT - Msg ID: 54532)

7 Tonnes

If Russia builds Putin's estimated 10,000 apartments at a cost of $5,000 (U.S.) a piece, which is probably more than they would spend, the total amount of gold needed to be sold at current prices would be 7.44 tonnes.

Repeat, Russia has sold everything they could get their hands on in recent years just to pay the bills. There is no significant stash of Russian gold about to hit the market!The reaction this morning is one of ignorance. Don't get caught up in it. BUY!

MoutainGold

(05/24/2001; 11:45:50 MDT - Msg ID: 54533)

Gold Testing Breakout at 276 basis June

Very normal market behavior by Gold. After an important breakout (June Gold 276), a retest of the breakout is normal and common. This pullback offers a great entry for astute Gold traders. This is a gift price. Buy Buy Buy this may be the last cahnce to buy cheap!!! IMHO

Russia must be scraping bottom. They must have sold all their copper, zinc and other commodities. This is a bullish sign for commodities in general. It has taken them 11 years to sell all their inventory of "things". Great commodity bull ready to go...Gold and Silver could be the leaders or will it be Copper Aluminum Zinc???? Maybe all go up big!

Got one birdie and lots of bogeys 9 Holes..... Golf
Back to the markets.....

MoutainGold

(05/24/2001; 11:52:50 MDT - Msg ID: 54534)

Tree in Forest Yes Sir ? My Time Work Says Big Surge in Gold This Summer!!

Best guess is a possible $500 Gold and $12 Silver by Xmas.
Breathing too much Rock Mountain air?? Think this is very possible!!!

Look for huge run in Swiss franc and Euro coming soon. The USDollar is a bubble ready to burst. Something out there to pop the bubble on the USDollar.

Canadian posters.....your currency looks explosive...needs to clear important resistance 6550 basis Sept...ready to make bi money on this breakout.

Later....

megatron

(05/24/2001; 11:57:39 MDT - Msg ID: 54535)

RussianRoulette

Let's examine the dynamics of this scenario. Gold will be transfered from one account to another. Whose 'account' we all know. $US dollars will be printed (whatever) and fronted to seller of said gold. A 'big show' will be made of the rescue operation. Putin will be a hero the the 'people' and will have continued the swindle at the COMEX for another month. The difference in the Gold 'show' and the Silver 'show' is facinating. When someone needs gold, invariably a seller shows up with lots of 'verifiable' tonnage.(read;media verifiable) But when silver stocks are in question A 'mysterious' eastern country with COMPLETELY UNVERIFIABLE stocks is 'unloading' massive tonnage, and the 'market' swallows it.(figuratively) This is getting so pathetic. O'Neal or somebody???? what are you doing, get these lunatics outta there. Somebody has gotta get smacked down.This is insane.

megatron

(05/24/2001; 12:03:19 MDT - Msg ID: 54536)

And ANOTHER thing......

HOW,pray tell, does trading gold for $US make flood waters recede and make it easier for helicopters to rescue victims????

Old Yeller

(05/24/2001; 12:05:42 MDT - Msg ID: 54537)

Tree in the Forest;#54528

Amazingly prescient posts,I have certainly appreciated and valued your input.Many thanks.

uponroof

(05/24/2001; 12:08:34 MDT - Msg ID: 54538)

How do you say WHOOPS in Russian?

Putin backtracks May 24, 2001

Dow Jones Newswires
Russia Diamond, Gold Sales For Flood Region To Be Delayed
Dow Jones Newswires

MOSCOW -- Russia will delay selling gold and diamonds from the Treasury to finance the rebuilding of a remote Siberian region devastated by floods until it has used up funds currently available in the budget, President Vladimir Putin's economic adviser said Thursday.

"There's enough money in the budget at the moment," Andrei Illarionov told a press conference. A possible budget deficit caused by the emergency expenditures "will later be covered by sales of gold and diamonds," he said.

Earlier Thursday, Putin said he was prepared to sign a decree authorizing the sale of gold and high-quality diamonds from the mineral-rich Yakutia region, parts of which were hit by severe floods, local news agencies reported.

Illarionov didn't say how much gold or gems the government would seek to sell, nor did he say when Russia would begin the sales.

"The Finance Ministry is now working on reallocating money within the budget from one section to another," he said, adding that the funds from the enlarged emergency section will be put to use immediately.

The idea to sell gold and diamonds from the state coffers was first floated by the state diamond company Almazy Rossii-Sakha, or Alrosa, which operates large diamond mines in Yakutia.

"So far it's only a proposal, we have to wait for the president to sign it into a decree," Alrosa's spokeswoman said.

The government emergency commission formed to tackle the floods estimates the total damage at 3.5 billion rubles ($1=RUB29.08).

The Alrosa spokeswoman declined to say what amount of diamonds and gold could be sold. "However, the volume will obviously be based on the damage estimates," she said.

megatron

(05/24/2001; 12:11:05 MDT - Msg ID: 54539)

Message from Putin

Dear Commrades;
I have personally intervened, on your behalf,into the commodities exchange to sell our gold to save you. I could find no buyers for our barbarous relics so.... Your dead.

Lucky for those people someone in the world still wants to buy 'barbarous relics'. I mean, if you had a vault full of gold are you gonna tell me there's nothing you can do to help someone, because it's not in $US? This whole thing is crackin me up! Who swallows this stuff?

megatron

(05/24/2001; 12:15:26 MDT - Msg ID: 54540)

Russia Diamond, Gold Sales For Flood Region To Be Delayed

AAHHHHHHH,make it stop,make it stop,AHHHHHHHHHHH.EEEEEE....

Can you say Palladium?

megatron

(05/24/2001; 12:25:51 MDT - Msg ID: 54541)

MountainGold

Do you have a link for a decent long-term SwF/$US ratio? 10 year or better? Most I have are the 3 nearest contract.

beesting

(05/24/2001; 12:27:22 MDT - Msg ID: 54542)

Sir Tree in the Forest, Sir megatron All. RUSSIAN GOLD!

Sir Tree, I for one deeply appreciate yours and everyone elses posts here, I'd like to respond to many more posts but unfortunately time doesn't allow it, please keep the Comex numbers coming.

Sir megatron....Russian Gold Announcement..... The greatest danger I see in this announcement is some sweet talking international Bullion Bankers, backed by who knows who(IMF/NY FED/BOE???), may seize this opportunity to explain to the Russians how great it would be for them to sell unmined Gold in the ground (hedge). If the Russians are gull able enough to fall for this ploy it could depress Comex/LBMA Gold prices further, as the "Paper Hedges" would increase supply of "Paper Gold". The plus side for Goldhearts is Russia would probably NEVER deliver on their forward Gold sales, and then the default of Comex/LBMA really could be blamed on somebody else.(Russia)....FWIW....beesting.

uponroof

(05/24/2001; 12:27:36 MDT - Msg ID: 54543)

Now wait a minute........

did I miss sometinThis Russian 'sale' does not sound like they will be removing .999 fine kilos from gummint vaults. Sounds more like selling institutionally owned gold, from gummint controlled mines, still in the ground from the affected region.

"Earlier Thursday, Putin said he was prepared to sign a decree authorizing the sale of gold and high-quality diamonds from the mineral-rich Yakutia region, parts of which were hit by severe floods, local news agencies reported."

If this is the case, and the supply side of the soon to be sold gold has yet to be fully realized, where is the loss?

uponroof

(05/24/2001; 12:54:14 MDT - Msg ID: 54544)

beesting

Your post and mine are on the same trail. Capitalism in Russia, GS style. LBMA and GS on the next plane to Siberia? hummmm... mixed emotions.

But let's not 'over react'

Just heard on the 'American Advisor'..they had a reuters wire titled: "Russian gold sale market shakeout is over reaction"

Reality sets in?

Thanks

megatron

(05/24/2001; 12:57:59 MDT - Msg ID: 54545)

beesting

They have certainly learned a cute 'trick' from the Palladium run-up, and that is telling the market your going to sell/mine lots and not really selling, although in this case it's for the opposite effect. I think they have shown the COMEX traders to be like a kitten with a shiny object, who can be made to follow, very attentively, to any statement. Obviously, todays statement/retraction served it's purpose did it not? Who cares what they do, gold let off the pressure. It's all so sad.

MoutainGold

(05/24/2001; 13:06:30 MDT - Msg ID: 54546)

Megatron.....Paper and Pencil Kind of Guy

Still trying to figure out the "puter".

Try fiendbear.com...it has links to decent commodity charts.
8 year monthlies. Commodity Trend Service is good but do not know their handle.

Still do all my own charts Point & Figure...get my data free anywhere I can by surfing the net.

Bought Swiss Franc on chart pattern and possible Euro intervention...looking for USDollar bubble to burst any day now. Will be big surge in Euro and SF...which day?...just do not know..wish I did. All IMHO and do your own due diligence.

Uponroof sure nice to read your posts..what a mind you are!!! GE Forum is waste of time mostly...still some good posters but mostly "manipulation freaks". All markets are manipulated to some degree. Gold just happens to be the most manipulated! TA WORKS ON GOLD NOW AND FOREVER!!!

megatron

(05/24/2001; 13:07:02 MDT - Msg ID: 54547)

Unfortunately......

I mean, this stuff is NEVER going to end. Every time gold rises an as%#^#$le like Putin or Blair or Roth is going to come out of left field with some altruist statement/ploy to 'save' someone/some unfortuate group. And that statement can never be legally challenged and they know it! They can say they will sell 1000 tons per day of gold in the ground, and guess what, thats what it will come to. I will bet my life. As I've ranted in the past, nothing is going to happen until the wheels blow off, my friends, nothing.
It's too big.

beesting

(05/24/2001; 13:18:07 MDT - Msg ID: 54548)

$10.00 moves in Price Of Paper Gold.

It would be amazing to me to figure out how much "PAPER" money was, made/lost/exchanged/ in todays Gold action worldwide.....All this "Paper" movement in direct response to a "RUMOR".....
Well, it opens the Gold accumulation window for some at a lower price than yesterday anyway....beesting.

Old Yeller

(05/24/2001; 13:25:47 MDT - Msg ID: 54549)

Gee,this kind of reminds one of the gold price in the not too distant past

http://www.prudentbear.com/boards/user/non-frames/message.asp?forumid=4&messageid=49022&threadid=49022
Supply keeps dropping,but the price does too.Last price for the UST 30yr. bond;99 7/32 down 29/32.

What are the vigilantes in the bond pits telling us?

IronHead

(05/24/2001; 14:01:46 MDT - Msg ID: 54550)

Tree In The Forest - Comex Tsunami

Hello Sir Tree - If it is any condolence, as one sappling under the oaks, it has been my great pleasure to follow your technical as well as philosophical commentary. Whether the Comex "is" the Tsunami or merely will be the weathervane during the storm, is open for debate. Regardless; that it will be an indicator of the broken mechanism for determining the value of gold has been shown by your diligence in determining its numerical break-apart juncture. Keep it flowing, the river of gold.

MoutainGold

(05/24/2001; 14:27:20 MDT - Msg ID: 54551)

Sharing My US Dollar Analysis..

One of my filtering tools is my Time Study and Cycle Work.
These are lower status in my systems.They do however validate my buys and sells.

The USDollar is the key market on the face of the earth. All other markets IMHO are subservient to this "King Dollar".

Time work says high is closeif not in. Today the USDollar Index was unchanged forming a bearish one day candlestick.
Delta, a time study, indicates a major high now with a decline into Feb 2002. Now this is interesting since the 40 month Rothschild Cycle bottoms Feb 2002. Also, a crash predictionfor the stock market is Jan 25, 2002. I'll discuss that if posters want it.

The bottom line is that my TA,Time Study says top close. The TA pattern a double top, is very bearish. I expect to wake up one moring and the Euro up 200 and Swiss Franc up 150. Tommorow? If intervention, could happen.

As a professional trader I put my money where my analysis is. I know this is rare with all the spinmasters out there. I translate analysis to trading action and hope to feed my family and pay the mortgage. This is serious business for me so I try to do the best analysis. Fundamentals are basically worthless to me. Think about all the factors that must be analyzed for USDollar...trult mind boggling...to me Price Tells All! IMHO and no investment advice do your own due dikigence.

R Powell

(05/24/2001; 14:34:39 MDT - Msg ID: 54552)

One fer day

The lease rates made a good move higher today but POG got hammered down (along with lumber) and the mining stocks also lost ground.
Interesting that silver (up 4 cents) is still moving in the same direction as soybeans. Both metals traded in a wide up and down range keeping alive the thought that the markets are unstable battlegrounds in which big moves are likely to occur. Let's hope it's to the plus side when it happens.
Tomorrow afternoon, just before the long weekend, may (as Mr. Blade would say) be interesting.
Rich

Artie Farkle

(05/24/2001; 14:34:43 MDT - Msg ID: 54553)

Russian gold

Someone in an earlier post said that the Russian government has never cared about its people.

If this is the case, maybe they are buying not selling?

They just knocked the $%@& out of the POG.

Maybe they learned something from the first announcement of UK gold sales?

megatron

(05/24/2001; 14:36:07 MDT - Msg ID: 54554)

MountainGold

Short-term SwF has yet to break out of channel down, at what point would you consider going long?

Mr Gresham

(05/24/2001; 14:36:24 MDT - Msg ID: 54555)

Ru$$ia

(Welcome MoutainGold -- great to read your clear, succinct analysis!)

Wire Transfer: "Deposit SNB account #1120000031 V.Putin USD 500,000.00"

Ka-ching!

Horatio

(05/24/2001; 14:55:42 MDT - Msg ID: 54556)

cde

At 10 min to 4 I bought cde ,before 4 pm they saw the order and knocked the price down.Must be computer program tradeing programed to knock down at 1 buttom command.I notice the tradeing pattern on most watched gold stocks does the same thing,the pattern is the same for the stocks they have programed into thier computer.Theres no doubt in my mind its being run by the same computer program .The per cent move is calculated to be the same .There is NO randomness about the pattern its clearly contrived.

megatron

(05/24/2001; 15:02:30 MDT - Msg ID: 54557)

Horatio

A lot of gold equities have large per-centage jumps after and before the open/close, but it would not surprise me to find out large banks or the FED was trying to 'sit' on this market. The're scumbags.

R Powell

(05/24/2001; 15:35:53 MDT - Msg ID: 54558)

Comex open interest

Tree in the Forest I'll go on record as stating that I have been following your watchfulness of Comex stores for as long as you have been talking of them. If there is any truth to the rumors of big money buying forces entering the gold and silver markets, what little notice we get of a squeeze play will be visible through these monthly, open interest numbers. I agree, hear you loud and clear, and appreciate your work.
Au-some, thanks for the suggestion. I'll try it.
Rich

Farfel

(05/24/2001; 15:38:57 MDT - Msg ID: 54559)

Gold collapse = Greenspan failed to reflate stock market

That's too bad.

I see that the gold price dived today. This year, almost any gold price drop has become a near 100% foolproof future indicator that the stock market is about to dive, usually within a day or two, never less than a week from the day of the price collapse.

Well, you cannot push on a string, interest cuts didn't work in Japan, they will not work here either. Too much debt, no savings, when you cut the interest rate, all you do is make loans cheaper for those who can borrow, but for those who are already over-leveraged, be they corporations or individuals, they will NOT borrow another dime.

The American middle class is overleveraged, undersaved, so there's the problem in a nutshell.

The "mother of all stagflations" I first wrote about some four years ago @ Kitco continues to gain steam here in America. You cannot end a stagflation through rate cuts, it can only end through dramatic rate hikes, culminating in an economic shake-out aka recession/depression.

Mr. Greenspan, who is trained in economics last I heard, probably knows that, so I can only guess that his bias in favor of sectoral inflationary spiral is a result of:

a. His belief that the current rapidly escalating sectoral inflation can be contained long enough for technology to devise some solutions.

b. His belief that he will be retiring and/or dead soon so the next generation of Fed Reserve governors will have to deal with the problems, not him.

c. He is hopelessly senile and/or operating under nefarious Wall Street influences he cannot control anymore.

Ultimately, when the American economy goes into full tailspin someday soon, although many will point an accusatory finger at Greenspan for allowing this mess to develop, ultimately I believe that history will judge that Greenspan is simply a "weak-spined leader," no different than Neville Chamberlain, who simply did not have the strong personality or balls to stand up to the bullion banks who led Wall Street down its path to wreck and ruin.

Thanks

F*

Mr Gresham

(05/24/2001; 15:45:01 MDT - Msg ID: 54560)

The Russians Are Coming!

http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-bin/bbs.pl?read=147622Humor at BF on future gold "announcements":

"It's only a matter of time before the stories of discoveries of sunken Spanish galleons laden with gold start hitting the newswires. Then, after that, the stories about discoveries of vast amounts of pure gold spewing out of deep-sea vents are sure to follow. Then, we'll start hearing about discoveries of long lost meteorites that are made up of pure gold. Then, we'll start seeing pictures of that meteorite spray-painted in a gold color that looks like it came right off of the shelves at Earl Scheib's. You know what people, and I hate to have to say this, but, watingforgolddough is going to remain waiting for what looks like a long, long time. "

Posted By: watingforgolddough
Date: Thursday, 24 May 2001, at 4:16 p.m.
� 2000 DREJ Consulting. All Rights Reserved.

SHIFTY

(05/24/2001; 16:02:07 MDT - Msg ID: 54561)

Farfel

Glad to see you back at the forum.

$hifty

MoutainGold

(05/24/2001; 16:23:08 MDT - Msg ID: 54562)

megatron Swiss Franc

I am trying to pick bottomusing 100 point stop.

Sept Swiss Franc is a buy at 5800. Reason to believe close to important low...if wrong get stopped out.

Nice to know I am loved over at GE Forum....you know where you and your horse can go milos??? Must be one of those Texas "friends" had over there...that's what that Forum has turned into...glad to be here with civilized thoughtful posters with something to contribute....

Later...

MoutainGold

(05/24/2001; 16:48:35 MDT - Msg ID: 54563)

Gold Manipulation

Gold has been a very "thin"market for years. This has made it easy to "manipulate" by strong players. Now if Cisco was as manipulated as Gold, heads would roll. Gold has no large constituency. I applaud GATA and I hope they get to the bottom of illegal activity. Bet they won't, they are powerful.

Sorry, every tick in the Gold and/or stock market is not manipulatedThe FED does not intervene in the stock market like many postersat GEForum and some here claim. Yes "they" have the ammuntion in a "crash" and have and will intervene.

TA works in all markets. TA can uncover manipulation. TA is merely a why to guage supply and demand. When supply is manipulated, the chart will show it. When demand is strong, the Gold market will soar $14 and the chart will show it.

A giant short squeeze of the Gold manipulators is starting. This makes the Gold surge coming up very exiting.

Most mainstream media mock the "right wing Gold Bugs". Why? Just go over and read some of the postsat GE Forum. A sure sign of a losing traderinvestor is blaming some outside force for their losses. You are responsible for your losses. The darn Gold manipulators did it again. Do not play Gold if it is manipulated.

All markets are manipulated to some degree or another. The Gold market IS manipulated. The stock market is nearlyimpossible to manipulate on a consistent manner.
IMHO

PS Why don't you guys over at GE Forum just stay over there.

Netking

(05/24/2001; 16:51:08 MDT - Msg ID: 54564)

Cavan Man & CoBra(too) - Silver

Cavan Man(54497)CoBra(too)(54482)
The situation is far worse than the one of Moses faced with the Red sea on one side & the elite war chariots of Pharoh bearing down on him on the other side, but this time there aint going to be God parting of the waters this time to save the day!.

There will have to be some form of USA rationing, confiscation, control or regulation etc(that is eventually, sooner or later)with current supply & production dynamics (remember gold was confiscated NOT that long ago right?). With the shorts positions amongst 4 main shorts) being in the ball park of 2 years Ag mine production and given the many technical & fundamental factors there is no hope of recovery in this situation for a long time.

It's as they would say in Air flight "past the point of no return". They must try & manage an efficient Dunkirk withdrawl. Buying and holding physical Ag (and Au)now has NEVER been a better investment at a better time in our lifetimes. regards NetKing

megatron

(05/24/2001; 17:03:46 MDT - Msg ID: 54565)

Gresham

This isn't humorous anymore. This is getting so transparent it's sickening. People laugh at movies like 'Wag the Dog' and then wonder why politics is so corrupt. Obviously the gold market is driven by this sort of drivel. Otherwise as soon as the retraction was made gold should have shot back to 285 should it not??????? Are traders stupid? No, but the really smart ones recognize these kind of political 'signals' and act accordingly. Can you blame them? No American judge can ever stop these kind of 'offshore' statements from being made/retracted and they know it, even if GATA wins,hands down. Human filth like Roth or Putin don't care. It's pure corruption, and I seriously doubt that O'Neal can/will/wants to get to the bottom of any of it.

MoutainGold

(05/24/2001; 17:05:02 MDT - Msg ID: 54566)

Thanks caballac...and other "friends and allies" at GE Forum (last GE Forum Reference

Sorry fellow posters....some unfinished business at GE Forum. Since outlawed over there can't directly respond...think I crossed self promotion line over there??? really do not know...I am an author,publisher and prof. trader many are wannbes over there...don't worry...won't breath a word about my products here. Keep to the Gold, Silver Swiss Franc program.

My TA work indicates one of the greatest Gold and Silver markets soon to arrive. My plan is to make my fortune. Nice to hear all and any views concerning Gold and Silver...sure helps my analysis...that's how I stumbled on GE Forum.

Sorry USAGold in posting to GE Forum....... this is last

Dowjonesbubble - how are you allowed to promote your website...boy oh boy vronsky sure is a hypocrite.Willstick with my charts....better than your sometimes meaningless tirades. Whatdo you do with your analysis??? Remember how bearish you were March 22...I was bullish as youi know 2000 DOW rally....I rest my case. You are a great contrary indicator.

MoutainGold

(05/24/2001; 17:19:23 MDT - Msg ID: 54567)

My Gold Analysis

Look for possible weakness till next Wednesday.
The seasonal strength starts May 31st lasting to August and my Delta has a turn June 1st. The June 21st, solar ecclipse???!!!, will change the Gold trend whatever it is doing. Not major. When time runs out the trend changes. The long 20 year bear in Gold just ran out. A long and far bull run has started...one day they will realize they have "paper"!!!

Buy any Gold or Gold stock weakness. This may be the last chance to buy cheap. Look for a nine month trend run that could be explosive. Swiss Franc and Euro will go up with Gold.

Do not be concerned about price weakness. Little chance Gold and Silver will go much lower now. The key breakout points in Gold is 315 and in Silver $5.80. These will accelerate the up move.

No investment advice and IMHO
Let's hope my analysis is correct...have had a very hot hand trading lately...a trend in force.....

Good Luck All Hey Silver up a little in after hours Silver held up good today.

CoBra(too)

(05/24/2001; 17:32:19 MDT - Msg ID: 54568)

@ Netking - ... and the Red Sea covered all the Chariots ...

...of the Pharao, in the end. I treasure my small Ag hoard, though Au is my real forte.

Just skimmed the extensivively researched Frank Venoroso piece on the cafe. While, most of us have gone through it before - it is hard evidence! ... and as hard evidence goes it proves GFMS and WGC are paid lackays to the a cabal- and proves that there is a cabal, not wanting the (di)-stress of the physical mess to surface.
Thanks to GATA and its supporters it becomes clear - there is something amiss in the gold (and silver) biz (Not only- at the BIS) ... and as I feel the eel (cabal) is trying to worm out the last deal.
See 'em squirm, need a worm Putin'in a word to supress the POG by selling a commodity for the oddity of having the same amount sold already manifold (see TOCOM's default on promised GUS Pd).

All told - after a while even Putin denied - and where is the gist of the story - except bein' gory - I feel the munitions of the manipulators of reality are scraping the proverbial bottom of the barrel of any potential counterparty.

And to the end - no, they won't bend - only strand on the bleak beaches of history - since they've thought to be, too big to sink, even to the stink of their debauchery.

Gee, who would'a thunk? Not you! - cb2

Sancho

(05/24/2001; 17:44:07 MDT - Msg ID: 54569)

Megatron, Stranger, others

I agree we do not have to give much credence to Russians selling gold or anything to help flood victims.They still have a few stalwart souls that haven't been paid for work for years-so why would they do anything of citizenry benefit now? One thing hough I admit does perplex me that I just plain do not understand and maybe someone can explain it to me: Russians seem to be a very patriotic species, moreso than a lot of countries, despite a government (and individually to each other as well) that does less for more people within and without the country than almost anywhere, except maybe parts of Africa. Why?

Black Blade

(05/24/2001; 17:44:39 MDT - Msg ID: 54570)

Basket Case Russia, Criminal Commodity Exchanges, and Fictitious PM sales

Russia is a basket case of a country owned and dominated by organized crime and incompetence. Any word about any "official" position on any subject coming out of Russia should be dismissed out of hand. Where have we heard "announcements" of huge PM sales before? Oh yeah - Russia! Russia is a Third World waste land. Don't get me wrong, I have several good Russian friends. They are among the first who would concur. This country with vast resources and much promise is like a tortoise lying on its back. The old Soviet red tape and pervasive corruption that became ingrained in the government and society over many decades will take many more decades before Russia emerges into the 20th century (forget about the 21st century).

However, what is even more amazing is that grown men and women on the TOCOM and NYMEX who should know better, actually seem to fall for these fairy tales time and again. I suspect that they release these stories to speculators in order to pick them clean in a never ending game of "Gotch Ya!" The criminal managers on the TOCOM and NYMEX have been milking investors and speculators by changing the exchange rules for many years, and they have also been using stories such as these as an excuse. The Palladium default scandals are just an example of this type of activity, and the Nelson and Bunker Hunt silver rip-off is another. As far as the TOCOM, there used to be a time when Japanese managers would have the decency to commit ritualistic suicide (Hari Kiri) when they were exposed while engaged in fraudulent activity. The Americans on the other hand have always shrugged their shoulders and said, "oops that's the way the cookie crumbles." It appears that the Japanese have learned from their masters that honor is no longer necessary.

The Palladium scandal was interesting in that it was painfully obvious that the Russians simply did not have any PGM stockpiles left. When the Russia Bond Default fiasco hit the World's markets, the Russians were desperate to find a way out. There was no new money being loaned because of this default. The World's major bankers were not amused when they were told by the Russians that they could not make their payments. The result was that the Russians sold off anything of value that was not already stolen by organized crime, corrupt politicians, and their cronies (usually they were all one and the same). Now the claim is that - "The Russians are Coming! The Russians are Coming!" When the Russians make any announcement, it is usually better to just "wait and see." In the case of the Russians, "Don't count your chickens before they're hatched."

I also find it amazing that foreign companies will continue to do business in Russia. No one has had much success there. I remember mining companies like Pegasus Gold for example that got picked clean by the Russian criminals. Pan American Silver has been one of the latest victims. I said then as I say now, "What are you guys thinking?" One would think that these and other companies would learn vicariously the experiences of other companies in this part of the World. So the point is, when Russia announces anything, take it with a grain of salt until the actual event occurs.

- Black Blade

miner49er

(05/24/2001; 17:48:58 MDT - Msg ID: 54571)

Some thoughts... (been in hibernation for awhile)

First, I want to say that USA Gold's forum is superb! What an intellectual treat to have so many well stated and varied opinions. I haven't posted for several months (probably to everyone's relief), but have been a-lurkin' from time to time. Mike and Randy, thanks for the forum...

Now, Russian gold...

Rumors, rumors... but nothing is said at this level that is not without calculation. Even if a rumor, the desired effect was obtained. We live in a surreal world where all basis of reality is being removed. Up is down, left is right, strong - weak, and right - wrong. How can this be? Very simply, most people want it that way. Not being a Madonna fan, her song goes through my head often lately, though: "You only see what your eyes want to see..."

If all dream the same dream, none of us is the wiser for the other's illusion, because it is our reality as well. And as long as nothing wakes us from our slumber, we may merrily dream on. If all who dream prefer to remain in their sleep, then sleep they will, and none who benefit from this common dream, and common slumber will disturb the peace. Some exogenous event, deliberate or accidental, alone can rouse these dreamers.

Narrowing this down to the present discussion, many of us wonder in frustration who is going to step in and promise to bail out the shorts next? And there have been mountains of excellent analysis from all sides of this issue presented. I will not attempt to recount them. Personally, I think that:

a) There is gold in the hands of those who have the will and power to bail out these people, but they have exhausted the supplies with which they are willing to part, and will no longer step up unless a far better price is paid, and/or it proves to be well worth their while to do it.

b) Those on the front lines trying to keep this thing together are indeed desperate, and have used most of their ammo. Perhaps the Russian thing is known to be unreliable, and the real message is to be read, as uponroof points out, in the statement "Putin said he was PREPARED to sign a decree authorizing the sale of gold and high-quality diamonds FROM THE MINERAL-RICH YAKUTIA REGION." In other words tentatively promising to deliver stuff that's not yet put together yet. And this from a country and man that the world has absolutely 0% of a reason to trust. So we've gone from strong-arming Upper Slobovonia out of their 500 oz. national treasury, to blowing gold smoke. If it works, it works...

So... what do we learn from this? Well, what do we want to learn? If we are trying to figure out what player(s), or plausible scenario will develop that will become the bona fide demand for large physical delivery, then let me offer my 2 pesos:

If we want to know where the great physical demand will come from, we should look at what type of force can indeed effect such a demand. Certainly not Soros. This is not going to be a "Lop-the-GBP-off-at-the-knees II" type deal. Not unless he has set up some elaborate leverage trap in some masterminded piece of work where he has pinned his opposition into a damned-if-do-or-don't position. Otherwise, no man by himself can do this. He would wind up dead if he tried. Not even a collection of millions of people buying each a little bit will tip the scales. If he has a contract, the little guy will just get a cash settlement, and probably for only a part, and most likely, he will get told to go to hell. If he has no contract his spot buying can make a difference, but these guys can slam the window shut again, too, and say, "no mas..." 1933 redux.

And what will he do? Can Reg Howe really get anywhere with his lawsuit, for instance? I hope he does, and certainly the affect it is having, as well as GATA, is significant, but [pace Mr. Howe], I just can't see it getting to discovery, and if it did, IMVHO, it would end up being a legal farce. I am such a negative person sometimes, so I may be out of balance, but these guys are very, very powerful. Let's face it. In my eyes, the power required to pull this off would have to be:

a) Some country/group-of-countries that does not recognize/respect the established order, and has enough firepower, or enough of an essential commodity to flip the bird at this order and get away with it. They must not also rely too much upon these powers.

b) Some "for real" inside syndicate of very high level money power, that "for real" knows what it's doing.

Who might that be? As I look through a glass darkly, and assimilate what little I see with my very limited intelligence...

- We saw Iraq crash and burn from its attempt to screw things up in oil last year, either because they mis-played their hand, or indeed they were not strong enough.

- OPEC (chiefly the Arabic members here) may be so enmeshed in a decades long tangle of financial dealings with the West, that they cannot extricate themselves readily and have to play by the rules. Although it would seem that by historical standards they reel constantly from what must seem to them imprisonment in a system that runs so counter to much of their culture. Were they free, it seems that under the current activist, more anti-western leadership, they should be able to flex considerable muscle. But they haven't. Maybe they really believe the status quo is the least worst scenario for them.

Although... the Israel thing could blow up big time. And it will... eventually... IMO the Arab world will rally together actively here, and the potential impact does indeed have the force to awaken the present slumber, and the rest of the world will eventually influence the US to turn their back on Israel. All in order to keep the peace a little longer. I also believe that once the US gives up on Israel, they will have lost their trump card in dealing with any and all rabid anti-Israel powers. Powers that until now moderate their activity because of the US alliance. So the peace will be short lived.

- Russia apparently is desperate enough to swallow its pride and go along for now. I'm sure it has its reasons. Some deal was cut. Do they have the money to do it? Russia is always full of surprises.

- We hear rumors of these powerful Oriental groups. I have no idea if such exist, and most of us here probably don't either. If I had to hazard a guess, my hazardous guess would be, "yeah, probably..." But so what, speculation about speculation is fruitless and tiring.

- A nascent confederation of Oriental economic powers wishing to disengage from suffocating Western alliances, and assert themselves as a global force? Still too far off, unless some secretive Oriental syndicate wishes to sow a little seed money by helping stock this future confederation's reserves. But, ahhh, speculation upon speculation...

- China? Yeah, I think they probably are in the best position to do whatever they want and get away with it.

Conclusion? Paper is cheap, and promises meant to be broken (or at least adjusted). And as FOA says (my paraphrase), "as long as the sun comes up in the east, people will lend what they don't have, and borrow what they can't pay back." And they do so because of the "political will." In other words, it's what the people want.

And since we are in the surreal haze of a common dream, we will be told anything and believe anything. Ditto FOA in that paper will burn. Sharp traders can hustle a pretty good profit out of the day-to-day ebb and flow, but anyone else will get burnt with their paper.

Unhedged producers will do well in the short run, and perhaps in the very long run. But once a real crunch hits, it will be amazing how suddenly a whole array of problems from labor unrest to bizarre mining accidents to company officials, previously of impeccable integrity, "suddenly" are under investigation for alleged hanky-panky, and then the government takeovers, and on and on and on.

Otherwise, maybe short term you may get lucky on some explorers or juniors. Look at metallurgical services, and drilling companies. Doesn't matter if the banks, the government, or whoever owns the mines. They still need these services, and their high costs in terms of intellectual capital and equipment are a good barrier to entry.

Hold physical as privately as possible. If necessary the government will come after it, and don't think they can't and won't expend the resources necessary if they deem it worthwhile. Look at all the resources they spent on the Census.

And please, don't get so excited if gold goes through the ionoshpere. Consider the practical ramifications of what comes with it. Life as we know it in these here United States, will not exist for a long time, if ever. The pressures pent up that would be released in such a global financial unwinding would manifest themselves in some very ugly ways. Holding physical is not going to be for the wild-eyed profit play. When things get ugly, you try and sell it, or use it. If anyone knows you got some, they gonna want some, and they'll find out where your house is. And will the goods and services you want be there? And what if you can buy that 500 SEL cheapo? Maybe you can't buy fuel, maybe you can't get it maintained properly, and maybe you won't want to drive it because it will attract too much attention. This man's got something... let's follow him home...

You know where I'm going here. This is a time for sobriety, and circumspect, brutally honest analysis at every step. Wealth preservation will be the order of the day. Disclaimer: all my personal opinion, not investment advice. If you want investment advice, see a psychologist, 'cause after everyone has given you their advice, you'll need one.

Thanks for reading, maybe I'll fill the pages here again sometime.

miner

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/24/2001; 17:50:32 MDT - Msg ID: 54572)

One gold coin gets its own protective motorcade

http://www.metalsite1.newsalert.com/metalsite/articles/IronandSteel/05_24_2001.reulb-story-bclifehunley.htmlMore powerful than a speeding bullet, gold will do its level best to protect you...but it can't prevent you from drowning if you insist on going down with the government's ship.

According to the article:

"The coin was taken by motorcade to an undisclosed location for safekeeping."

R Powell

(05/24/2001; 17:54:10 MDT - Msg ID: 54573)

Gold and lumber//Silver and soybeans

The Hoople I just finished reading yesterday's messages and saw your opinion that gold and lumber do not trade in unison. I agree and originally said (when I first mentioned them together) that much commodity literature does equate the two as moving together, but I don't put much stock in this. The theory was that both signaled inflation. Perhaps years ago, in the good old days??, this may have seemed true.
Some also think that soybeans and silver move together although I can't remember why. I'm not promoting this one either but it's interesting that every day since I first mentioned these alliances, they have occured. That's why I keep mentioning them. Chances of two commodities both moving in the same direction on any one day=one out of four (assuming no no-change days).
Thanks for the response. IMHO any knowledge gained concerning the workings of the world financial economy and the commodities markets, as the specific precious metals' markets, is well worth absorbing but perhaps there should be a link to gold/silver in the interest of staying on subject. That said, we know that open interest in gold and silver was declining last year. There was talk of "thinly traded markets" with low total contract numbers. Lumber is a very thinly traded market, no? All knowledge is precious.
Rich

MoutainGold

(05/24/2001; 18:01:20 MDT - Msg ID: 54574)

Russian Gold Sale??

Even if Russia sells it last Gold, won't make a diference.
Gold is headed higher!!! Could be trader tactic.

Thanks for the great posts on Russia...learned a lot

segel_flieger

(05/24/2001; 18:15:37 MDT - Msg ID: 54575)

(No Subject)

Many Bulls out there are perhaps feeling a little disappointment over today's full retracement of the explosive rally last week. Time will tell if this is indeed a new bull market, but the technical damage isn't as severe as the emotional disappointment might suggest. Note that today's bounce off of the lows came right near the highs made in March. Prices never fell back into the rounding or saucer bottom pattern that was completed by last fridays pop to the upside. I hope that level continues to hold over the next few days, as that would be rather positive.

As other analysts have observed, the open interest in the June COMEX contract is still pretty high with 1st notice day coming up next week (Thu 31st). It could get very interesting if those who are long June are planning a squeeze by holding their positions and waiting to get assigned delivery. I think this would quickly break the backs of anyone who has been trying to cap prices with paper. Lets watch this closely...

R Powell

(05/24/2001; 18:18:09 MDT - Msg ID: 54576)

Working-kirk

After reading the questions you asked of The Hoople yesterday, I thought I might suggest a book, "Winner Take All" by Gallacher. It's available in paperback in most good bookstores and will answer many of the questions of the workings of the commodities markets. Also, if these markets are totally new to you, start with "How the Futures Markets Work", also in paperback, by Jake Bernstein. Both are excellent and will explain much that intrigued you in the Hoople's post on the lumber market.
Rich

R Powell

(05/24/2001; 18:30:01 MDT - Msg ID: 54577)

June Comex Gold Squeeze??

Great minds thinking alike Many have mentioned the possibility. Tree in the Forest, MarkeTalk and just now segel-flieger that come to mind (excuse me if I've forgotten others). Perhaps it will happen. Perhaps the perception that it could happen will precipitate something. Russian gold you say?? Well how about a June contract squeeze!! Never a dull moment!
Go Gata, Go silver (and soybeans!)
Rich

MoutainGold

(05/24/2001; 18:58:50 MDT - Msg ID: 54578)

Gold Testing Breakout USDollar Index Looks Like Top!

June Gold TA breakout was at 275. This price was tested today. The trend still looks good. A very big move up can happen again in next 5 trading days.

USDollar Index has a bearish candlestick. Did we see an important top today?... Anyone good at candlesticks? Please interpret. Long Swiss Franc and hoping for Euro intervention and the lows to hold. SF up a little in over night trading. Gold up $2.00 in Sydney...Silver looks great TA wise.

Good Luck All Later...

lamprey_65

(05/24/2001; 19:11:39 MDT - Msg ID: 54579)

Russian Play

The Russians continue to strive to remain "players" on the world stage -- they've succeeded in PGM's...is today part of their gold play?

Regardless, once $290 becomes support -- the move up begins in earnest. My bet is we are very close.

MoutainGold

(05/24/2001; 19:46:44 MDT - Msg ID: 54580)

Greenspan Sees No Recovery.....

Says inflation is "likely" to be contained so can lower short term rates if economy needs it.

FED has one pill, short rates. Do not believe it can mitigate recessionary forces.

Stagflation is the next big "thing". Gold loves it and stocks hate it. Many will have to seek real work as the great Wall St money machine dies....

Headline Won't See " SELL STOCKS, BUY GOLD
GREENSPAN SEES RECESSION"

Peter Asher

(05/24/2001; 19:50:08 MDT - Msg ID: 54581)

Plotting the POG---

http://www.jlc-update.com/archive/5_01/canadian_restrictions.htmlb-- ased on its historical relationship to lumber would not be applicable at this time.

** RESTRICTIONS LIFTED ON CANADIAN LUMBER
> The five-year-old Softwood Lumber Agreement, which imposed duties on Canadian lumber imported into the US, expired at the end of March. NAHB says this could reduce new home prices by as much as $1,000, but U.S. lumber interests are
lobbying to add new penalties, resulting in unstable prices.

Tree in the Forest

(05/24/2001; 20:27:13 MDT - Msg ID: 54582)

Old Yeller, beesting, Ironhead, R Powell

Thank you one and all. It is appreciated.

Tree in the Forest

(05/24/2001; 20:39:38 MDT - Msg ID: 54583)

Topaz

G'day mate. You posted a while back re: moving my predictions in closer. Well as I have elaborated below, I originally did have them in this time frame but moved them further out to try to pinpoint the really hot action coming up. In regards to the BOE auctions, rumor has it that the BOE may bail out some of their "friends" in the bullion banking business to the tune of 100 tonnes. If they do, that would probably mean the end of the auctions and the July auction will never happen. I also predicted a premature demise of the BOE auctions but didn't stick with my prediction 100%. Still I was right in flagging the fact that the future of these auctions was open to question. If they do coninue with the July auction, I predicted that they would have to dump the rest of the gold in July just trying to control physical demand. We shall see.

harold

(05/24/2001; 20:51:05 MDT - Msg ID: 54584)

mountain gold

Today's price action is indeed a candlestick 'doji'. However, the following day's price action determines whether it will indeed become a bearish doji. us$ index will likely retest breakout of recent consolidation. For what it's worth...the recent increase in volume in AU shares is telling...and it sure ain't John Q. Public that's buying down here (the hot money's always 1st in and 1st out)....XAU blew thru the 100 day MA, went straight to the 200 day and backed off, probably to retest the 100, saw the pennant forming yesterday that you had mentioned and watched it break out this AM....low and behold Putin stepped on it...brokered some hedge funds years ago and some of the managers employed 'chartists' to identify for them patterns that technicians watch for. They'd aid the market, if you will, form the pattern, then step on the thing after sucking in others. By the way...Greenspan is a chartist so he's quite familiar with all the different patterns etc.

MoutainGold

(05/24/2001; 21:01:13 MDT - Msg ID: 54585)

Thanks Harold

Great post and thanks about doji...do not really understand candlesticks but look at them anyway. Looked bearish...clutching on anything bearish on USDollar...long Swiss Franc.

Grenspan a TA! Sure, that would make sense.
Thanks again...

Christian

(05/24/2001; 21:03:54 MDT - Msg ID: 54586)

Kririrung Undergang

All money is debt money in our system. Income cannot be dollarized except by becoming more debt. The only way out is for the arrival of raw materials times price or in other words monetization of raw materials. A new money system based on a basket of commodities as backing for currency is already here. It is just that most of us missed it. That basket consists of anything that is worth more then gold. Gold is about to enbark on a new role as a means of store of value of savings and credit creation. There is no reason what-so-ever for an individual to do what the hedge companies and central banks are doing. It is a matter of turning commodity gold into credit creation gold priced at a much higher price based on the reserve reguirements.--Can any one find a copy of a book titled Kririrung Undergang (Creative Destruction) by Alan Greenspan. It is banned in the USA but it does exsist in Germany. I may have Kririrung mispelled. Any one having information on a copy e-mail me at deethelm@webtv.net Thanks

MoutainGold

(05/24/2001; 21:11:58 MDT - Msg ID: 54587)

Thank You for Warm Welcome Netking

and the explanation about the other place.

At your service! Finally got to all the posts today.

Lots of writing and research today. Not much trading!

Best Regards

Chris Powell

(05/24/2001; 21:24:48 MDT - Msg ID: 54588)

Frank Veneroso's report to the GATA African Gold Summit

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/795This is what the Gold Cartel doesn't
want the world to know.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

SteveH

(05/24/2001; 21:34:44 MDT - Msg ID: 54589)

miner

I nominate your earlier post for the Hall of Fame.

I believe that we have the Euro/gold/oil faction and the dollar/England/IMF faction. All the hoopla we are seeing are trial balloons and posturing. There are some fringe folks that you discuss, but for the most part when the Europeans are ready because they tied gold to their reserve based on market considerations, they will see to it through their allies that the Euro will be protected by gold's rise.

One thing is for certain, that Ruskie thingy was not an unrelated event. It was perfectly time to squelch a trial run towards $300, causing the one faction to regroup. Powerfull forces are at work and we watch. But watch we do.

Solomon Weaver

(05/24/2001; 21:41:19 MDT - Msg ID: 54590)

MountainGold....glad that you asked...since I will vote NOT to hear about it.

MoutainGold (5/24/01; 14:27:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 54551)Your words sir..."Also, a crash predictionfor the stock market is Jan 25, 2002. I'll discuss that if posters want it."

There was a time on this forum when all regarded eachother as great knights and ladies at a round table where the virtue of gold was honored.....

My observation is that those knights and ladies who are interested in the fundamentals seem to stay and those who are interested in the daily charts tend to move on....

So, we simply tend to tolerate the blather of an occasional trader and chartist and he eventually leaves us....

Sir, I care little for the power of your computers and regressions to make you oodles of money in the daily markets...true success breed humility...so I measure as not as successful as you claim.

You see, the daily action comes and goes, predictions are never perfect and the great winners are always ashamed of their great losses (which eat them in the bottoms of their hearts)....what real wisdom can be distilled from a chart?
The real discussion here and on the trail relates to having the courage to look deep inside your own heart, find the values of humanity that say you should earn your way and you should have the right and wisdom of honest savings.

The finest of knights and ladies create value with their hands and minds and are wise enough to set some of their rewards aside as golden savings.

Chartism is speculation without bravery...you may become rich but will you be brave enough to "protect it??" No, one is always tempted to squander the former success on the next higher level of speculation.

You sir may throw your money at your charts....but I find nothing in any claims of brilliance at predicting the direction or timing of a market.

This is a gold discussion forum. We entertain additional discussion about silver, platinum, oil, energy, politics, gun ownership, Arabs and Russians as fundamental components of a world economy.

Sir MountainGold. I criticize not at all your mind and heart...simply your choice of topic....welcome be ye here as a true Knight of wisdom if you can distill out the deeper meaning of your observations.

Poor old Solomon

Netking

(05/24/2001; 21:58:41 MDT - Msg ID: 54591)

Ag/Au on "Countdown to lift off". . . .

Friends some timely edited comments from 'Mission to the Moon'(T.Butler Oct 99)
------------------------------------------------------------
"...Here we are at $300 gold, and the gold world is coming apart at the seams. What would happen at 400 or 600 or 800? I'll tell you what happens, as I've been telling you in every single article I've ever written - massive default. But silver - oh silver - that scares even me. It's almost too extreme to analyze in a non-emotional manner. I find my mind shuts off and wanders when I let my natural logical thought patterns flow - much like a computer crashes when there are too many applications running. I find myself (me -the bull of all bulls) pulling back from the certain ending I see dead ahead, because it is extreme beyond experience. But when I see the trouble that $300 gold has caused, I know it can't be long before silver starts the nuclear fission price process.

That's because the silver price has been manipulated for way too long by leasing and the excessive short selling of paper contracts that have no backing whatsoever. In fact, the only thing holding silver back from its date with destiny is massive new short selling by entities that have not a prayer of fulfilling their soon to be called on demands for actual delivery.

But the manipulators have little choice - it's either sell still more millions of ounces of silver they know they can't come up with in ten lifetimes, or watch the worldwide short silver position of billions of ounces get sucked into the gold fire. It is this unbridled desperation and manipulation to the last possible moment that is creating this last chance to nail down silver purchases by you.

There is nothing on earth that can stop the silver eruption once it begins. The only hope the trapped commercial shorts have is to delay the start - for a day, a week, or a month. The only thing that can delay the inevitable is perversely, more shorting....With a current short position above any possible amount available in the real world, allowing new short selling that is only intended to suppress the price is outrageous. While some might claim my suggestion is self-serving, let me answer this way - how does allowing more naked selling help the situation. The only cure for a manipulation is to end it. The problem of default is not created on the day the default becomes visible - it was created on the day the non-performing short sale took place. That's why the CFTC and COMEX must act now. We don't need them to tell us the shorts can't deliver - we need them to act now and stop new manipulative short selling.

Gold is a multi-stage rocket that has maybe used up its first stage - there's a lot more to be ignited on this journey. Silver is different. Silver is not any rocket. Silver is the Saturn V used in the Apollo Mission to the moon. The biggest, baddest, most awesomely powerful rocket ever produced. The masters of manipulation can't let this baby lift off - it will knock them out of the game forever. But the countdown is over, ignition has been activated, and the fuel is starting to burn. We're in that twilight zone that only lasts a few seconds, but seems an eternity - the time between when we see the flames and the rocket starts to move. The engines are pouring out flames and billowing clouds of steam - yet the rocket doesn't budge. Despite the greatest creation of thrust ever developed, the mass of the rocket is so great it seems to defy the laws of physics and does not move. But you know it will. That's where we are in silver. Those few seconds of delay in the Saturn lift-off may translate into a day, a week, a month in silver. But don't be fooled by any twilight zone appearance of delay in lift-off. Get your ticket and pack your bags - we're going to the moon..."
-----------------------------------------------------------
As applicable now as in October '99! Time & price to soon start the "nuclear fission"!- kind regards NetKing

Solomon Weaver

(05/24/2001; 22:03:42 MDT - Msg ID: 54592)

Peter...Goldenrods view is Americocentric...and short-visioned

Peter Asher (05/24/01; 11:37:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 54530)
Another look at the Euro
From one of GE's finest.

The Euro...or..."Who's That Knocking On My Door?", cried the fair young maiden! () May 24, 09:57

Let us wander, for a short while, I have a weak heart! Through the minefield that will be the Euro over the coming six months or so. In the first place, a subject that has all but disappeared under the radar as far as the Euro is concerned, is the physical appearance of the Euro notes and coins in every E.U. country in a little over six months.
--------------

There is no doubt that the immense act of gracefully replacing the physical coinage of a new 300 million member plus nation will be a great modern undertaking....and some Antacid tablets will be needed....

But Europeans are actually quite pragmatic.....and the new Euro (good currency) will very quickly drive the expiring fiats(bad currency)right out into the open. Do you think that those sophisticated enough to have hidden cash reserves really keep it under a matress anymore nowadays??
Most Germans have moved on into the generation of Kleinkredit....with credit cards just like Americans...and with their Reiselust and Fernweh are quite accustomed to spending paper that doesn't have the word Bundesbank anywhere on it.

The great story might just be how well the whole thing goes. We Americans just love the idea that those Eurofolks just can't pull it off...but c'mon.

The real story to watch will not be the intro of the Eurocoin...it will be how carefully they expand the Europresence in the debt markets....and how gracefully they convert the digital Eurodollars into new Dollareuros.

And gold will be the quiet witness, sustaining it's presence atom by atom, quietly held in the dark and unseen places, while the world reforms the "value" it would find in the light.

Poor old Solomon

Black Blade

(05/24/2001; 22:08:14 MDT - Msg ID: 54593)

Recession May Have Begun --Research Firm

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010523/bs/economy_recession_dc_1.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Economic Cycle Research Institute, which tracks business cycles in the world's leading economies, said on Wednesday that its prediction of the first U.S. recession in a decade was moving from forecast to fact. ``There is no spin or room for interpretation here at all. It is completely factual. We are not talking about where the economy will be in the future, but in the determinants of where we actually are in a business cycle,'' he said. While most textbooks define recessions as two straight quarters of shrinking gross domestic product (GDP -- that has not yet happened -- ECRI said the economy has met nearly all criteria under the definition used by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the nation's arbiter of the start and end of recessions.

Black Blade: You won't hear this type of information from the parasites at the BLS you abuse the art of statistical massage with phoney baloney voodoo statistical filters. The leeches who subsist on the public dole as any welfare recipient continue to give the false impression that all is well and that there is no inflation. The talking heads in the media perpetuate this nonsense as ordered. So when the NBER says that there is no recession, ask questions. We are certainly in a profits recession no matter how one spins it. Corporate profits are declining quarter over quarter. Good article.

JCTex

(05/24/2001; 22:14:58 MDT - Msg ID: 54594)

MountainGold

Welcome. I post little and watch much. I am familiar with many of your wiggles & squiggles. Some folks here have no use for them, but don't let that bother you.....we need all the help we can get from wherever it comes.

Some will like yours posts, and the others can skip over them. Some might even learn that charts can be useful, too.

Welcome aboard: wiggles, squiggles & all.

megatron

(05/24/2001; 22:17:38 MDT - Msg ID: 54595)

Solomon Weaver

Wow! What a nice friendly way to welcome someone to USAgold.
Your a real blessing to us all. With such an open mind as yours we'll all be certain to become better people. By the way, no one cares about your 'vote'. He didn't ask specifically 'you' :^[. I vote to hear his 'opinion' so there!

Black Blade

(05/24/2001; 22:19:26 MDT - Msg ID: 54596)

CPS Boasts About Power Surplus

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ksat/20010524/lo/812428_1.html
A Tale of Two States (with apologies to Charles Dickens)

Snippit:

While Californians look forward to a summer of coping with rolling blackouts and high energy prices, San Antonians will be able to enjoy a surplus of power, City Public Service officials announced Thursday. City Public Service provides electricity to San Antonio area customers using a variety of power plants, including those fueled by nuclear, coal and natural gas.

Black Blade: Truly a story of "The Ant and the Grasshopper." Gold has pulled back offering Ants the opportunity to prepare for the economic damage that will become evident as the energy crisis continues to affect corporate earnings and the ensuing effects of high inflation. BTW, an interesting side note - A recent poll shows that the Californian Grasshopper now favors building Nuclear power plants with 58% in favor. But like the Grasshopper of Aesop's fable, it is too little - too late. "�and they danced, sang, and played all summer�"

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/24/2001; 22:21:42 MDT - Msg ID: 54597)

USAGOLD forum excerpts: All times BMCT (Branson, Mo. Central Time)

Day - 5Thursday, 09/30/1999 00:12:51BMCT (Hill Bill Mitchell @ # 14938) "Spot, GOLD @ $303."

Thursday, 09/30/1999 00:20:20BMCT (ORO @ # 14939) "�Every forward rate in every term for gold, silver and platinum are negative, in the red! The pm carries are dead, indeed those who participated are being crucified as we speak. Dis � reality rules�Desparation of ruined trades pulling at the borrowers from the major banks, and thereby in the banks."

Thursday, 09/30/1999 00:36:01BMCT (Hill Billy Mitchell @ # 14943) Spot Gold @ $301.50. Back to sleep."

Thursday, 09/30/1999 00:46:38BMCT (Bonedaddy @ # 14945) "Please, just one more dip!�When gold shot up Monday, my first emotion was not elation, but aggravation. (Drat, I was sure, but I'd really rather accumulate for a few more months at these prices. I'm not a �paper kind of guy�, so the only thing that really interests me is acquiring a little more gold at yard sale prices. At any rate, this weeks price action was a WAKE UP CALL TO ME. Volatility means there is pressure. Like a compressed spring, it will soon slip from their grasp and somebody will get hurt. The big fund managers really aren't much different than children with their toys. (Leave that gold shortin� alone boy, you gonna put somebody's eye out!"

Thursday, 09/30/1999 08:05:31BMCT (FOA @ # 14963) "Comment, Why did it stop? It didn't!�In the longer run, Sunday's announcement by the ECB may be just the first shot in a far larger battle for long overdue and much needed reform of the world's monetary system. But in any event, it is a reminder that what General de Gaulle termed �an exorbitant privilege� � the dollar's key currency status � cannot be maintained indefinitely by a policy of trashing gold."

Thursday, 09/30/1999 10:36:36BMCT (Goldfly @ # 14970) "Wowees! Spot andSpike are just tumbling all over the place! We're ooching higher! $302.10."

Thursday, 09/30/1999 10:57:42BMCT (USAGOLD @ # 14975) "MARKET ANALYSIS (09/30/99): "Day four of the Big Breakout�Perhaps the most interesting day of the breakout � not so much in terms of price action but what is revealed about the behind-the scenes players (link provided)�the very lucrative gold carry trade�The greatest danger was a rising gold price, rising lease rates � last Sunday night when the European Union made its declaration�that pipeline is indeed shut down�"

Thursday, 09/30/1999 11:09:38BMCT (ORO @ # 14977) "Bid Ask, Notice how bid ask spreads have widened?

Usually they are 0.5
They were 1 to 1.5 over the early London session, rising to 2.
They are now at 2.50 � 3 and drag into 3.5.
Very high for the current "low volatility in the market. Someone is very defensive."

Thursday, 09/30/1999 11:24:51BMCT (Goldfly @ # 14982) "ORO, I sure have noticed the spread in bid/ask getting wider. How does this impact trading? How is the spread determined?"

Thursday, 09/30/1999 10:57:42BMCT (ORO @ # 14988) "Goldfly, Again, the actual considerations are in the market maker's head and computer algorithms (probably much patched up now). From a short and very rough look at the numbers it seems that the spread is a function of lease rates and volatility. It stands at whatever the market will bare. Meaning that the urgency in trader's actions is sufficient to not shop for lower spreads. So if the market seems to expect swings of much more than 1% then traders would not be bothered by spreads of 1%, particularly when facing margin calls (where price expectations have little meaning). So it normally stands at 1/10th to 1/3rd or so of the lease rate plus a cost driven minimum plus a portion of the volatility. Right now we have increased the spreads up to $5, or 1.75%, and back down to $2.5 to $3."

Thursday, 09/30/1999 19:47:14BMCT (SteveH @ # 15023) "repost from gold-eagle.com�From MIDAS, �A representative of the Central Bank of Russia told Bridge News that it is possible the CBR may place 7.3 million ounces of its gold with western banks, thereby enabling it to be lent to the market�� Conclusion: Russia cannot become a golden party-pooper. Big Bull Poop. Don't worry."

uponroof

(05/24/2001; 22:32:47 MDT - Msg ID: 54598)

Historic Civil War coin found in submarine.

http://www.metalsite1.newsalert.com/metalsite/articles/IronandSteel/05_24_2001.reulb-story-bclifehunley.html20 dollar gold coin in the pocket, given by sweetheart, saved Captain Dixons' life. Important discovery? It was "Taken by motorcade to an undisclosed location"

Solomon Weaver...what part of Texas are you from? (just kidding)

OK, I'm a new guy here, and probably committing political suicide, but here goes......

I have read MoutainGold since he has been posting and he does buy physical with winnings. From what I remember he has been buying PM's since the 70's.

Keeps rolling over some profits to continue trading but does buy physical. He is a 'goldbug', unless there is a litmus test I am unaware of to qualify.

also-He's annoying because he's usually right.

btw-how does a coin in your pants pocket save your life by stopping a bullet?....those were BIG bullets. There's an idea....solid gold bullet proof vests for every cop in America.

Black Blade

(05/24/2001; 22:34:56 MDT - Msg ID: 54599)

Americans Favor Conservation - Yeah, Right! (Drpping With Sarcasm)

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ipsa/20010523/cm/americans_favor_conservation_1.html
Snippit:

WASHINGTON--The American idea of an energy debate is to preach conservation while driving to the mall in an SUV--to buy a new computer--and complaining about high gasoline prices. A CBS poll taken just before the release of George Bush's energy program found that Americans favor conservation over more energy production by a huge 60 percent to 26 percent margin. Meanwhile, the size of new homes has increased by 47 percent since 1970, and 84 percent of them have central air conditioning, up from 34 percent. What's missing is an energy tax. If you want people to buy fuel-efficient vehicles, you have to give them a reason to save fuel. Ditto for air conditioners. Geller concedes the logic, but says ``it's a non-starter politically. Americans think they have a God-given right to cheap energy.''

Black Blade: Hypocrisy is alive and well in the US. In other words - Do as I say, not as I do. "Americans think they have a God-given right to cheap energy.'' - Yeah - it's in the Bill of Rights! Good article. Sticks it to the idiot Joe Sixpack who thinks that energy companies are charities providing "cheap energy." The era of "Cheap Energy" is over and done with - better get used to high energy costs going forward. That alone should take a toll on the economy. Every postwar recession has been preceded by an energy crisis, and this time the energy crisis is more pervasive than having to pay a couple bucks more at the gas pump. This time it will be reflected in higher utility rates, higher costs of goods and services, lower corporate earnings, and higher unemployment. - Game Over! Hard assets in this environment look better all the time.

JCTex

(05/24/2001; 22:37:06 MDT - Msg ID: 54600)

And we wonder why gold is down??

Sorry about eating the band width up with this, but I just had to pass it on:

Let's see if I understand how America works lately . . .
>
> If a woman burns her thighs on the hot coffee she was
> holding in her lap while driving, she blames the restaurant.
>
> If your teen-age son kills himself, you blame the rock 'n' roll
> music or musician he liked.
>
> If you smoke three packs a day for 40 years and die of
> lung cancer, your family blames the tobacco company.
>
> If your daughter gets pregnant by the football captain you
> blame the school for poor sex education.
>
> If your neighbor crashes into a tree while driving home
> drunk, you blame the bartender.
>
> If your cousin gets AIDS because the needle he used to
> shoot up with heroin was dirty, you blame the government
> for not providing clean ones.
>
> If your grandchildren are brats without manners, you
> blame television.
>
> If your friend is shot by a deranged madman, you blame
> the gun manufacturer.
>
> And if a crazed person breaks into the cockpit and tries to
> kill the pilots at 35,000 feet, and the passengers kill him
> instead, the mother of the deceased blames the airline.
>
> I must have lived too long to understand the world as it is
> anymore. So if I die while my old, wrinkled butt is parked
> in front of this computer, I want you to blame Bill Gates, OK?
> >>

megatron

(05/24/2001; 22:43:13 MDT - Msg ID: 54601)

uponroof

As you can see, some of 'us' are 'better' goldbugs than other ones ;^)

Solomon Weaver

(05/24/2001; 22:53:07 MDT - Msg ID: 54602)

(No Subject)

Ahhhh.....ruffling some feathers???? Some good honest Jousting.Wow...did anyone understand that I was extending an unwelcome hand to a new poster????

Have any of the dear old Knights and Ladies on this forum ever heard me call anyone towards banishment??? Even if they suddenly appear here posting all day long due to a former banishment???

I simply made a statement of truth...which like the value of gold will show itself in time....the real value of this forum is not created by a blow by blow analysis of trading ranges and chart shapes. The real value of this forum is not about making money.

Posters like MountainGold should understand that a $10 spike in this market is not exciting to us as a source of "wealth gain"....most of us have no more gold in hand the day after the spike....do we judge ourselves as "richer" because some "paper traders" have changed the gold/dollar ratio???. No, these movements are exciting because they are the barometer of deeper underlying fundamentals (with which we fill our lungs high up on the trail).

Sir MountainGold, I will in no way say that this must be a forum of "yesmen" following every word of FOA and Another....but I seriously suspect that all your hours glued both to the charts has prevented you from sitting down in front of a nice fire (during this winter of gold) and quietly reading a printout of the words of these much braver men, who were daring enough to make certain "predictions" known and were patient enough to let them slowly occur....again, refering to those who are brave enough to teach a humble forum of knights and ladies how to hold some honest savings.

Sir MountainGold...contrary to what some think, I can quickly see you are a man of strong energy and drive, with a capacity for differentiated thinking....I simply advise you to set aside YOUR form of thinking long enough to absorb the underlying tone of this forum over time.....

I welcome you as much as others.....but if you last here, it will be because we change your mind some...you see, if you don't go deep, most of what we discuss here will seem rather boring.

Poor old Solomon

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/24/2001; 23:07:00 MDT - Msg ID: 54603)

A little crow form - a small and deserved nod to ORO

Sir ORO,

Having reviewed the posts on Day 5, (Break-out) in 1999 following the Washington Agreement, I discovered something about you which I could not have seen then. You made a post # 14977 concerning the change in the usual spreads precipitated by the change in market dynamics. (increased volatility, increased margin requirements, increased lease rates, etc.)

I, being a small-time dealer in bullion coins, interjected with some talk of oranges while ignorant of the fact that you were talking of apples. I talked of brokers working at desks of large companies who sold bullion products (silver and gold bullion, coins, bars, etc.) to dealers like myself. I talked of my experiences with the change in the bid/ask spread of those products and superimposed the situation of these brokers with the market makers of the futures market about which you were giving us a fine lesson. I was quite out of line and unaware that I was talking about a completely different subject. As I look back on this I realize that you were quite the gentleman and chose not expose my ignorance.

Now I find myself comparing that situation with a most recent one. You made a statement. I hastily chose to disagree with you and find that maybe you were talking about apples once again and I may have chosen to dispute your point with an argument about oranges. I must double-check! It may be that I have an ego problem which causes me to attempt to debate on your level. Please accept my apology. I am sure I can make a few theoretical points (those that I feel to be very important) without being contentious.

Very respectfully,

HBM

Black Blade

(05/24/2001; 23:07:12 MDT - Msg ID: 54604)

Californians' priorities for solving the crisis are outlined in a Field Poll

http://www.sacbee.com/news/special/power/052301priorities.html
Snippit:

But on one long-standing issue -- nuclear power -- the poll showed a clear preference and a dramatic shift in public opinion. In the highest recorded support for nuclear power in California since before the Three Mile Island disaster in 1979, 59 percent say they favor more nuclear plants in the state to provide electricity. Support among registered voters grows to 61 percent, with 33 percent opposed. Among Democrats, 53 percent support more nuclear plants, and three-fourths of Republicans and 55 percent of others agree.

Black Blade: A friend of mine who was assigned to the VP-19 ordinance at Moffet Field had a shirt with a picture of a mushroom cloud, and the words - "Nuke em� till they glow! Made in USA - Tested in Japan. That was the impression one would have when nuclear power was mentioned. Now with high utility rates in the cards, the public sentiment changes as well. I would expect that the boys and girls at "Club Sierra" will have less in the way of donations and fewer participants at their get togethers munching on Beluga Caviar, chowing on Brie, nibbling on dolphin free tuna, and slurping down a variety of Napa Valley vintages out on the Redwood Deck. We live in "Interesting Times."

Golden Dreams All!

SHIFTY

(05/24/2001; 23:48:25 MDT - Msg ID: 54605)

First Citiwide Change Bank

Transcript from an old Saturday Night Live SkitI remember seeing this add spoof on TV years ago and was able to find the transcript. Its good for a laugh.
Enjoy
$hifty
----------------------------------------------------------

First Citiwide Change Bank

10/8/88

Customer #1.....Jan Hooks
Bank Representative.....Jim Downey
Customer #2.....Kevin Nealon
Customer #3.....Nora Dunn
Customer #4.....Phil Hartman

[ SUPER: "When you do only one thing, you do it better" ]
Customer #1: I needed to take the bus, but all I had was a five-dollar bill. I stopped by First Citiwide, and they were able to give me four singles and four quarters.
[ SUPER: "At First Citiwide Change Bank, We just make change" ]
Bank Representative: We will work with the customer to give that customer the change that he or she needs. If you come to us with a twenty-dollar bill, we can give you two tens, we can give you four fives - we can give you a ten and two fives. We will work with you.
Customer #2: I went to my First Citiwide branch to change a fifty. I guess I was in kind of a hurry, and I asked for a twenty, a ten, and two fives. Their computers picked up my mistake right away, and I got the correct change.
[ SUPER: "Correct Change" ]
Bank Representative: We have been in this business a long time. With our experience, we're gonna have ideas for change combinations that probably haven't occurred to you. If you have a fifty-dollar bill, we can give you fifty singles. [ SUPER: "We can give you fifty singles" ] We can give you forty-nine singles and ten dimes. We can give you twenty-five twos. Come talk to us. [ SUPER: "We can give you twenty-five twos" ] We are not going to give you change that you don't want. If you come to us with a hundred-dollar bill, we're not going to give you two-thousand nickels.. [ SUPER: "We're not going to give you two thousand nickels" ] - unless that meets your particular change needs. We will give you.. the change.. equal to.. the amount of money.. that you want change for!
[ SUPER: "At First Citiwide Change Bank, Our business is making change" ]
Bank Representative: That's what we do.

Bank Representative: A lot of people don't realize that change is a two-way street. You can come in with sixteen quarters, eight dimes, and four nickels - we can give you a five-dollar bill. Or we can give you five singles. Or two singles, eight quarters, and ten dimes. You'd be amazed at the variety of the options you have.
Customer #3: I was driving through Pennsylvania on the tollway, and to save time I was using the exact-change lanes. I had just run out of quarters, and I was getting a bit nervous when I spotted a sign for a Citiwide branch at the next exit. Let me tell you, it was a pretty good feeling.
Bank Representative: I have had people come in with wrinkled ten-dollar bills to exchange for new crisp bills to put in birthday cards. We can handle special requests like that, usually in the same day.
Customer #4: I'd just returned from a business trip to London, and all the cash I had was a five-pound note. Citiwide wasn't able to convert it to dollars, but they did give me four guineas, two crowns, four shillings, and ten pence.
Bank Representative: All the time, our customers ask us, "How do you make money doing

SHIFTY

(05/24/2001; 23:53:13 MDT - Msg ID: 54606)

First Citiwide Change Bank

Transcript from an old Saturday Night Live Skit"How do you make money doing this?" The answer is simple: Volume. That's what we do.

Solomon Weaver

(05/24/2001; 23:55:20 MDT - Msg ID: 54607)

Sir MountainGold - forgive my mood of the evening

Sir MG

It is close to the witching hour and the rollover to the new day.

Perhaps you will chance upon these last posts (made in your absence)where my mood was quickly put in check by Sirs megatron, JCTex, and uponroof. If sir uponroof is correct that you post part of your trading profits to a golden egg...then he defends you as being a shrewed man.

You see, I am simply a poor old philosopher with a few silver coins in my pocket and a golden one in my shoe. I am accustomed to drinking Earl Grey and let my self in on a snifter of nice dry Sherry tonight (a gift of Russian Jeres from my in-laws) which got my blood a little thin and a little hot.

So, welcome sir to this forum...looking forward to your "Thoughts" as well.

Poor old Solomon

Rockgrabber

(05/24/2001; 23:59:36 MDT - Msg ID: 54608)

Dear Sir Solomom

"I Simply made a statement of truth...which like the value of gold will show itself in time....the real value of this forum is not created by a blow by blow analisis of trading ranges and chart shapes. The real value is not about making money".

Yes sir. Those are easy to come by, where this is hard to come by. I need to go into lurking more myself. These words take up serious ones..

Netking

(05/25/2001; 00:08:46 MDT - Msg ID: 54609)

Solomon Weaver

Hello Sir Solomon; There is an old Indian saying that goes like this; "Do not judge a man until you have walked a mile in his moccasins" I believe Sir Mountain Gold has a valid contribution to make and can add value to our discussions.

If being a technical analyst is wrong, if making a profit of whatever size is wrong...then I'm guilty as charged.(Although the more I accumulate the more I can/do give away). Solomon, fundamental analysis is very different from technical analysis, neither is wrong, but they look at things from differnt perspectives. Many of the great TA's (eg WD Gann)could pick exact market points/junctions sometimes months/years in advance before the fundamentals had come into manifestation.The more I learn the more I realise that I have so much still left to learn. I enjoy your posts Solomon but believe we should be open minded to be educated & learn from all our fellow Gold bugs posts also, even if their perspectives or values may be different from ours. I vote to listen to Mountain Gold & learn.
Kind regards to you Sir, Netking View Yesterday's Discussion.

Rockgrabber

(05/25/2001; 00:12:49 MDT - Msg ID: 54610)

money in the heart

Solomon, you well know I am sure, "money is in the heart of man". Speak against that and you will scalded. I look to see what remarks you obtain.

Solomon Weaver

(05/25/2001; 01:00:01 MDT - Msg ID: 54611)

Ready to greet a new trading day.

Sir Rockgrabber...It would be too strong a statement to claim that there is not some value to the posts made during each day which simply mention a price or an index....in some way, on a busy day, they represent a kind of reporting service of what went on.

I am sometimes quite amazed at the emotional level that a run in the paper prices of gold can create on this forum...as if many of us seem to judge our success based on the numbers.

What has always perplexed me is the knowledge that all "paper" pricing in gold is contract pricing. We all know how much each trade changes the "value of the unit in the market". Each of these contracts (to the competitive bidder)is underpinned by leverage. Only a foolish buyer would put up 100% of a contract, since he reduces his multiplier. The other form of leverage is the option, a side bet on the direction of a market. Although many hope to get rich picking the direction, the name of that game is making money by "putting capital at risk".

But, like watching an active boxing match between two heavyweights, the action of the Gold Cabal vs. the Gold Syndicate, we become enganged so in the blows landed in each round, and begin to see the action of the gloves as carrying more meaning than the outcome of the fight. And in the end, what meaning does the outcome of the paper fight really represent to the deeper fight within each soul to find true wealth.

The West has created great wealth in this age by unlocking the mysteries of the universe at the atomic scale. The great inflation is not one of fiat increase, it is one of human velocity. It would be far too simplistic to say that all wealth(worth) must return to gold. A dollar is much more than a promise to deliver a good...today it is also a promise to deliver an action, a thought. During the Great Depression it was partially the deflation of the money supply, but much more so the reduction in monetary velocity that caused a great reduction in human velocity (earnings). Today, the West has a hypervelocity in human effort.

But stop and look at the value system that this hypervelocity creates. In most third world countries, one saves up to buy a house and borrows little to support the purchase. In America, we "refinance" our home to "take advantage of the new equity wealth" which has been created by the mortgage markets, so that we may "improve our standard of living" by putting the funds into "other assets" like an SUV or a vacation. The innocent simply do not realize that they are pricing themselves out of ever really "owning the home they live in". As if we sell the body to spite the soul.

The Buddha, a great profit and teacher, professed "right earnings" as one of the aspects of his "eightfold path" to liberation from the grip of the mind on the heart/soul. In those simple days, he counted the production of weapons and the production of intoxicants (primarily alcohol)among the professions which blocks the heart/soul from liberating the mind. Is not the Western facination with "return on investment" coupled with "leveraged" risk almost a form of intoxication? Is that intoxicant not so strong in distorting reality that it can even convince the holder of an asset like a home or gold that his possession is worth "more" or "less" from one day to the next?

So, how wise that the deeper meaning we seek here on this forum looks past the intoxication of the Western mind and deeper into the Human mind...right down to the human heart where the concept of value and wealth really reside. Gold is not valuable because it is rare or hard to come by. It is valuable because it can serve as an anchor to the "heart/soul" of the "global economic mind" to return once again to the common ground which holds humans together...the untarnishable "trust" that resides within us all and can never be destroyed.

Let no "paper tigers" (short or long) shake this "trust" which resides within the heart of every (wo)man, rich and poor.

Poor old Solomon

Peter Asher

(05/25/2001; 01:01:06 MDT - Msg ID: 54612)

@ Solomon Weaver (05/24/01; 22:03:42MT msg#: 54592)

Thanks for the response; I always enjoy your easygoing analytical manner of debate.
Re <<>>

As he is a Canadian, is that good or bad? {:-)

Re <<< . Do you think that those sophisticated enough to have hidden cash reserves really keep it under a mattress anymore nowadays??>>>

We have seen several posts and articles referring to an EU underground economy of 25% of the GEUP. It has also been conjectured that much of this is flowing into PMs and real estate to store the value and not have to have it show up to the tax authorities via conversion Goldenrod's --"Also having fits, but for a different reason are the present holders of illegal Euro swappable notes. Although a steady laundering of these piles of illegal gains has already taken place, there is still a sea of it out there. Some of it will be used to buy tangibles, real estate, cars, you get the idea. This will distort the true picture of public demand for goods until after demonetization." suggests (And this too I have seen elsewhere), that there could be a strong recessionary thrust when this spending suddenly ceases.

I believe I was the first poster here back on Dec. 8th �98, to come out against the Euro, by holding forth that it would sink to its lowest common denominator. I firmly believe that the dehabilitating socialism already rampant in the EU is going to get even worse. The EU welfare state and the Japanese "Cradle to grave" expense both serve to dilute the buying power of those who produce and in doing so dilute the buying power and therefore the value of their foreign exchange.

As the prime advocate on this site for productive capability being senior to monetary factors, I see the Euro as subject to the shortcomings of the economies that as legal tender it encompasses. Another Yen actually. While I am not the ferocious patriot that some here are, (Though I do admire and respect them) for purely analytical reasons I would only store my fiat reserves in legal tender that could claim the product or property of Eco-Americana!

Solomon Weaver

(05/25/2001; 01:11:01 MDT - Msg ID: 54613)

Well put sir Netking

Netking (05/25/01; 00:08:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 54609)
Solomon Weaver
Hello Sir Solomon; There is an old Indian saying that goes like this; "Do not judge a man until you have walked a mile in his moccasins" I believe Sir Mountain Gold has a valid contribution to make and can add value to our discussions.

-------------

Sir Netking, I agree well with you...and perhaps a mile is still too short. I once again in the open forum regret the mood I left behind. Sir MountainGold is welcome here...as well as his "Thoughts".

Perhaps he will walk the trail a few miles with us together and we may all rest our moccasins by the high mountain fire, as we ponder the meaning of "wealth" and human nature.

Poor old Solomon

Peter Asher

(05/25/2001; 01:18:24 MDT - Msg ID: 54614)

Solomon Weaver (5/25/01; 01:00:01MT msg#: 54611)

(Our) Aristotle once said regarding a post of mine "If any post belongs in the Hall Of Fame, this one does."

I am saying that now about what you have just written.

--- "And in the end, what meaning does the outcome of the paper fight really represent to the deeper fight within each soul to find true wealth." ----
--- " Gold is not valuable because it is rare or hard to come by. It is valuable because it can serve as an anchor to the "heart/soul" of the "global economic mind" to return once again to the common ground which holds humans together...the untarnishable "trust" that resides within us all and can never be destroyed.---"

Fine words for a Gold Forum Hall of Fame. The Hall rules say that nominator should build a case for voting for entry. Beyond what I have already said, I must differ to the content itself.

Let those who see what I (And Solomon) see, cast the three seconds

Just waking up

(05/25/2001; 01:25:37 MDT - Msg ID: 54615)

Solomon Weaver

You speak the truth with gentle graceWhat makes this forum so unique, and such a treasure, is the courtly manners and the deep thinking that looks over the horizon and beyond the years.

Swaggering pride, boastful self-promotion, hectic preoccupation with the short-term and bad-mouthing other honorable fora, seem discordant at this table.

There is so much refined wisdom to be learned here. It is a shame to waste the opportunity. Perhaps in time...

Kind regards,

Bob

Solomon Weaver

(05/25/2001; 01:25:50 MDT - Msg ID: 54616)

Peter...do you see we are really on the same page???

From the many years living in Europe, I can certainly say that "more" of the Euro economy moves in "cash". I used to pay all of my bills in "cash" (at the post office). My former European boss used to come on business trips with $2000 cash dollars in his pocket (and he still takes twice that to Japan even now). In both those lands there is still much more of the understanding that "cash is king" (partially because the king may always have a mistress - i.e. "privacy" of cash).

Yes, the older fiats are now moving to buy real goods, but the sellers of those goods must still convert. It is a great money laundering process...but few banks there will ever ask the source of the cash the depositor brings. Gresham's Law will certainly be visible here. But it will be the New Fiat (Euro) which will be held as the last older fiats circulate near the end at sudden discounts...and the Eurobank will be happy to absorb all the old "cash" by creating "digital" Euro structure.

I agree with you as well that the Euro could easily be destroyed by socialistic deployment of the new monies created. It will be an adventure to watch.

Poor old Solomon

SteveH

(05/25/2001; 05:36:47 MDT - Msg ID: 54617)

Russian backtrack

MOSCOW, May 25 ( Reuters ) - Russia's deal with the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) would forbid Moscow from selling gold from central bank reserves, even to help flood victims, a government source told Reuters on Friday.
The source was commenting on Thursday's statement from President Vladimir Putin that he was willing to dip into Russia's gold and diamond reserves to help people in the flood-hit Sakha Republic who have lost their homes.
"Our monetary programme doesn't allow central bank gold sales. We have to accumulate reserves and must not allow central bank decapitalisation," the source said.
He added that Putin's statement had been made to demonstrate that he was willing to take extreme measures to help ease the crisis in the eastern SIberian region, where people have been flooded out of their homes into rescue centres and tent camps.
Sakha, a gold and diamond rich republic formerly called Yakutiya, may have its own gold reserves but a government official in the capital Yakutsk would not comment on the issue.
"I can't comment on gold reserves in Sakha and I don't know the details surrounding Putin's statement," he said.
He said that Putin and President of the Republic of Sakha, Mikhail Nikolayev, would meet again on May 29 in Moscow to discuss the crisis situation.
Russia's 388.7 tonnes of official gold stocks are held by the central bank and the state precious metals and gems repository, Gokhran. Russian law allows republics, where gold is mined, to hold some stocks, too. Yakutiya is one of such regions.
Gold bullion fell four percent on Putin's statement to end Thursday at $276 a troy ounce from its intraday high at nearly $288 an ounce, but had recovered to $280.00 an ounce by 0900 GMT on Friday.
Gold's price did not immediately react to the news of the government source's comment that sales would not be allowed under the deal with the IMF.

Netking

(05/25/2001; 05:37:34 MDT - Msg ID: 54618)

"You misunderstood me !" - Putin on Gold

YEREVAN,May 25( Reuters )President Vladimir Putin said Russia had no plans to sell gold to raise funds to help victims of floods in Siberia's Yakutiya region.

Russian news agencies on Thursday quoted Putin as saying he intended to sign a decree on gold and diamond sales if a clear scheme was presented to him "to help people now on the streets". But Putin told a news conference in the Armenian capital Yerevan, where he is attending a CIS security summit, "You misunderstood me.

"I didn't say that Russia intends to sell gold. I reacted positively to a proposal on the possibility of a mutual settlement of debt on a so-called gold loan which Yakutiya took from Russian authorities," he said.

The Invisible Hand

(05/25/2001; 06:50:33 MDT - Msg ID: 54619)

URlLyesterday's speech by Greenspan

Has anybody come across the full text of yesterday's speech by Greenspan? (The FT should carry it, but I didn't find it.) Thank You.

uponroof

(05/25/2001; 07:06:58 MDT - Msg ID: 54620)

The Silver Institue-World Silver Survey 2001-Summary

http://www.thebulliondesk.com/This report (in pdf form) is available at the bullion desk link above. GFMS not known for bullish PM spin, are spinning bullish for silver....Interesting info on the Cannington mine in Austrailia. Sorry if this was posted previously.

Global Silver Fabrication Demand Increases More Than Five Percent in 2000. Industrial Use up a Dramatic Eleven Percent

NEW YORK (May 16, 2001) � World silver fabrication demand grew by more than 5 percent in 2000, with silver's use in industrial applications recording an impressive 11-percent gain, according to World Silver Survey 2001, released here today by The Silver Institute.

Buoyant consumer spending and business investment resulted in much higher raw material demand for use in a huge variety of products incorporating silver. In 2000, the structural deficit between fabrication demand and conventional supply (mine production and recycled scrap) grew to 151.2 million troy ounces (Moz), further reducing above-ground stocks to meet silver demand. This is part of a decade-long trend that has reduced private sector bullion stocks by one billion ounces.

Silver mine production and scrap supply edged up in 2000. The sale of bullion stocks by private and official sector holders remained a significant component of total supply last year, with China again a large net seller of bullion stocks...."

snip

"....Silver mine production contributed just over 62 percent of all silver that entered the market last year, almost 10 percent less than a decade ago. Central and South American production was down 1 percent, at 135.5 Moz, which represents nearly 23 percent of global production. Peru, the world's second-largest silver producer, produced 78.4 Moz of silver in 2000, up from 71.7 Moz in 1999.

In 2000, Australia's silver output increased 20 percent to 66.2 Moz, compared to 55.3 Moz in 1999, eclipsing the United States as the third largest producer. The growth in production can mostly be accounted for by gains at the mammoth Cannington silver-lead-zinc mine...."

*******************************************************

Silver continues to be an enigma of potential. Like the respected, quiet, hard working sibling in the PM family, destined to become something very special.

Solomon Weaver- Obviously your intentions are good. No worries, MG and I have thick skin when (not if) we should need correcting. Enjoyed your wise words:

"And in the end, what meaning does the outcome of the paper fight really represent to the deeper fight within each soul to find true wealth." ----
--- " Gold is not valuable because it is rare or hard to come by. It is valuable because it can serve as an anchor to the "heart/soul" of the "global economic mind" to return once again to the common ground which holds humans together...the untarnishable "trust" that resides within us all and can never be destroyed.---"

(Amen....and I can sleep better at night also.)

Reminds me of some words from my good friend maddog:

"So the "Barbarous relic" derided by all the great and
the good, sits not outside the room forlorn and
forgotten but right at the epicenter of the global
financial mirage. Like some mythical colossus chained in
the cellars to the very foundations. While it's jailers
party the night away on their ill-gotten gains, all the
while terrified out of their minds that should it escape, their house of cards will be like so much chaff in the wind."

Have a great day!

justamereBear

(05/25/2001; 07:19:28 MDT - Msg ID: 54621)

Solomon Weaver 54611

You write "I am sometimes quite amazed at the emotional level that a run in the paper price of gold can create on this forum.. as many of us seem to judge our success based on the numbers"

I, too, have marveled at this "gold to the moon" mentality, in fact I have posted to that effect. I sorted it out for myself this way, after someone said they had difficulty thinking in terms other than dollars.

I live in Canada, and we switched from the English measure system to metric some years ago. I am of a generation that had some difficulty making that switch. Although it is diminishing, I still think in degrees F. And when somebody says it is "X" degrees out, and they are likely talking degrees C, I mentally double it and add about 30. In short I have difficulty thinking in terms of a new name for the same thing. The younger crowd has adapted much more quickly.

Few indeed, at this forum have ever had to think in terms of purchasing power in other than dollar terms. Those who have had the experience of growing up using Yen, or Pounds, or whatever, and then had to switch their thinking to say dollars by moving to a dollar area, have a leg up on the rest. They have had to introduce change into their thinking. I suspect that most have basically done it by leaving the currency out of the equation, and saying, "I have to work so long for such and such goods here, and it was thus long at 'home', so the item is more or less expensive."

I am sure that what I next say will be for many, at a minimum, hearesy, but there is little to say that gold, or silver, or fiat, has an intinsic value other than it's industrial value, and what gives it value is its general acceptance as a medium of exchange. The fact that mankind has often run to the "safety" of precious metals as a medium of exchange make them a good bet that mankind may do the same again. But, it is possible that wampum, or hydrocarbons, or bread, or cigarettes, may take that function. So, buying gold is a wager that it will be the thing to replace fiat, when, and if, fiat fails. And that is the underlying assumption of all who read here. Fiat will fail. I believe that it will fail, but who can say for certain?

I got my mind around that particular problem by thinking in terms of purchasing power. If an ounce of gold represents the price of a good, mans suit, then I will need "X" suits, and a corresponding number of other creature comforts. (such as food) to last me my lifetime. Thus, I need "Y" oz. of gold.

Personally, I think that the long suffering gold bugs see a jump in the POG as more of a vindication of their theories, than a making a profit of "X" fiat, although sometimes I wonder. I have been an Armaggdon believer since Feb, 1987. Waiting for the general populace to discover, like Wiley coyote of road runner fame, that they have run off a cliff, has been a long wait, and I eagerly seize on any small piece of evidence that my theories are right. (because all the evidence since that time has generally been against my theories--ie the POG has gone steadily downwards, and I would have been much better off to invest in the Dot Com bubble) Human nature, I expect.

When MoutainGold states that he is going to make $1 million, I have to ask, does he believe that fiat will fail? If not, making a million is a laudable goal. Or is he simply expressing himself in terms that are familiar. Personally, I like Working Kirks way of looking at it. I have a goal of "X" ounces of gold. I now own "Y" and have to get "Z" to reach that goal. Does away with the currency part of the thinking.

On the other hand, I suspect that we are both reading from the same page.

j'Bear

uponroof

(05/25/2001; 07:39:51 MDT - Msg ID: 54622)

"it may now do nothing, it may go berserk again" "wild price moves"

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010525/b111552.htmlOn yesterdays action and todays predictions:
********************************************

``...Well, that's New York...It's a short trading day today, they may have wanted to take profits, there were lots of longs out there...it may now do nothing, it may go berzerk again. This market, as it is, is very difficult to predict,'' said another dealer.

Given an early COMEX close, combined with the release of key U.S. data this afternoon including GDP, market players said they would be eagerly watching the figures for any surprises.

Otherwise, support was seen at $276 and resistance at $284.

By 1020 GMT spot gold was at $280.00/$280.50 from the $278.90/289.60 close in New York.

``The key worry now is what is going to happen when the CFTC (commitment of traders) data -- which is expected to reveal a large speculative long position -- is released later. Given that only Australia will be open for business on Monday, the lack of liquidity could see wild price moves,'' said an analyst....."

miner49er

(05/25/2001; 07:43:32 MDT - Msg ID: 54623)

SteveH

thanks...

Buena Fe

(05/25/2001; 07:45:29 MDT - Msg ID: 54624)

perceptions

LB's (longbond) gonna break under 99........Dow/SP5/Nasduck gonna break down back below resistance, then.........let the games begin!

Gold? why.........its priceless!
$? why........it burns well.

auspec

(05/25/2001; 07:56:00 MDT - Msg ID: 54625)

HBM #54603

As the Crow TurnsYou, Sir, are a fine Gentleman, and I admire your ability to be introspective.
Crow can be among the healthiest of meals, and I have had it many times {probably due for another right now or in near future}. It is good for the soul and.................tastes like ................chicken, of course. It can be very satisfying, yet not too filling as we tend not to overeat. Excellent as leftovers or for a late night snack.
Crow-- Get you some! Go Crow!

Rockgrabber

(05/25/2001; 07:59:59 MDT - Msg ID: 54626)

Leverage is allowing you to obtain more then your faculties allow

Leverage is like stealing anothers work. Leverage is a modern day tool, but the theory has been around forever. Its all about obtaining something you are suppose to work for, for nothing. Without being one bit productive to society, leverage allows you to steal others hard work, without the hard work yourself. And somehow it has been built into my head, nothing is wrong with it. Even gold has been made into a leveraged tool. You can work right now, and buy physicall gold at a leveraged price. Soon it will be worth way more work then it had been worth, at the cost of others ignorance. Golds value should NEVER change. The only reason it does, is cause its maniulated, to give someone leverage.

Buena Fe

(05/25/2001; 08:19:24 MDT - Msg ID: 54627)

THERE'S A WHOLE LOT OF SHAKEN GOING ON.

The "Machine" (Cabal/Fed/Money-changers) has gone to a great efforts the past few months to condition/spin the mushy minds of the US investor/CONSUMER into believing that lowering interest rates is great for the $........well this PERCEPTION will collapse shortly........and the resulting thunderclap will be remembered for generations.

Canuck

(05/25/2001; 08:36:14 MDT - Msg ID: 54628)

This Russian thing is BS....

....and with the US closed Monday we shall see who has the 'balls' to be short going into the week-end.

Notice the flat-line all around the world the last 2 days except in NY who is smashing away. They are nervous, extremely nervous.

Going long!!

MoutainGold

(05/25/2001; 08:36:17 MDT - Msg ID: 54629)

A Traders Perspective....Ready to Go Play Golf...

Expect Gold to be weak until next week. Silver is showing great relative strength.Both are screaming buys...preaching to the choir.

When the stock market is down the day before the Mem Holiday, should be up and does 90% of time, the stock market goes down for the next 4 months (Yale Hirsch).

Why the USDollar continues strong is a real mystery to me. With US economy weak, the Dollar should go down....looks like "hot" money has no other place to go. They will eventually find Gold or "real" money. They ae stillbe advisedby MBA ppapaer types...what happened to real values.

When the Bristish introduced Golf to the world, many cultures thought the game a little funny. One native was asked after he caddied for a British gentlemen, "what is the game called?". He replied,"Whenever they try to hit the ball they say Dam, Bloody Dam". Guess it's called hitty ball and say dam! True story.

Later.....

sstins

(05/25/2001; 09:03:30 MDT - Msg ID: 54630)

Mt.Gold

Great to have you posting here at USA Gold.

Fairways & Greens,

ss

sector

(05/25/2001; 09:12:59 MDT - Msg ID: 54631)

Large Bank Failures

from Financial Times Asia Equities Section:

[...Japan may 'need to take over banks' to allay marketconcern

By Gillian Tett and David Ibison in Tokyo
Published: May 24 2001 16:53GMT | Last Updated: May 24 2001 20:25GMT

The Japanese government may need to nationalise "one or two" large banks to allay market unease about the financial sector, one of the country's most influential business leaders has warned.

In particular, the government could convert the preferential shares that it holds in large banks into ordinary shares to gain control over weak banks, said Takashi Imai, chairman of the Keidanren, the powerful Japanese business federation.

"There is a possibility that one or two banks may need to be nationalised... this could help market sentiment, which is why I am suggesting it," he said.

The government bought Y7,450bn ($60bn) of preferential shares in large banks in 1999 to expand their capital base and holds particularly large stakes in the weaker banks, such as Daiwa and Chuo-Mitsui. ...]

**********************

The looming failure of large banks will not be limited to Asia.

AEL

(05/25/2001; 09:49:47 MDT - Msg ID: 54632)

Signs of the Times

Solomon Weaver (5/25/01; 01:00:01MT msg#: 54611) "And in the
end, what meaning does the outcome of the paper fight really
represent to the deeper fight within each soul to find true
wealth... Gold is not valuable because it is rare or hard to
come by. It is valuable because it can serve as an anchor to
the heart/soul of the global economic mind to return once
again to the common ground which holds humans together... the
untarnishable trust that resides within us all and can never
be destroyed."

......... Beautifully said! This reflects the inner struggle
versus the outer struggle of which the traditionalists (e.g.
Evola, as recently mentioned) wrote, with the former -- the
innner struggle -- being the more important of the two. Mr
Weaver's earlier misgivings about the TA/trading/etc.
mentality might be read as a largely-deserved reaction to the
quantification and commoditization of everything ("The Reign
of Quantity and the Signs of the Times", as cited earlier), in
which the planet is held in growing thrall. This trend itself
reflects the spiritual decay that has been underway for
centuries (millennia?), specifically and poignantly (for
goldbugs!) bespoken by the story of alchemy. The medieval
alchemists sought to transmute lead into gold; the authentic
alchemists (all-chemy; the holistic, soul-based "chemistry")
sought first to transmute the "lead" of a fallen or debauched
nature into the "gold" of christ or illumined consciousness;
the transmutation of literal (physical) lead into gold was a
secondary and lesser objective, actually a trivial byproduct
of the first. The authentic alchemists were overwhelmed by the
literal-minded jackals who lusted only after outer wealth, who
sought to abstract from alchemy only its most trivial aspect,
indeed who (and the more so, as the decadence progressed) were
unable to see anything *but* that trivial aspect; in this they
were as rapists or porn addicts, seeking shearly domination
and transitory physical gratification, and foresaking (and
later, unable even to sense the possibility of) the spiritual
treasure of deep, authentic communion between man and woman.
And so the spiritual progeny of the authentic seekers -- the
alchemists -- remain overwhelmed today and for all foreseeable
future, probably until the conclusion of this system. "Wealth"
has been reduced to a degraded concept having nothing at all
to do with character or inner quality; in fact, if anything,
the correlation seems to be reversed, those of least character
tending to be richest. This is of course but one of the "signs
of the times". We watch this descent together, yes? ;-)

(Lest I come off as TOO much of a sanctimonious scold: there
is nothing inherently wrong with material or "outer" wealth,
"transitory physical gratification", or any of the "outer"
things. Enjoy them. And ask yourself now and then if you can
do so without forgetting.)

Journeyman

(05/25/2001; 09:57:27 MDT - Msg ID: 54633)

Greenspan's May 24 speech URL @The Invisible Hand

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2001/200105242/default.htm
Hi Sir Invisible!

You can Greenspan's speech from last night at the link above.

Regards, j.

USAGOLD

(05/25/2001; 10:23:37 MDT - Msg ID: 54634)

Today's Commentary & Review: Behind the Putin Gaffe, The IMF Curtails Russian Gold Sales

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html5/25/01 (www.usagold.com). . . . Two events from yesterday I would like to comment on briefly:

(1) When President Vladimir Putin announced yesterday that Russia would sell gold and diamonds to raise capital for the flood-ravaged
Sakha Republic, it took $10 off the gold price in a matter of minutes. But what the Putin gaffe subtracted from the price in the short
run, it could very well add in multiples in the long run. Why? By late last night, the Russian government was back-tracking from the
Putin statements. In the process the Bear revealed something very interesting: It seems that the International Monetary Fund has slapped
restrictions on Russian reserves that prevents selling gold. (See link, Reuters) The IMF apparently views building gold reserves as an
important contribution to Russia's economic recovery. (That in itself is interesting given IMF stance on gold in the past. No mention
was made in the Reuters' article on the IMF position on Russian gold leases.) As old-time gold advocates and owners will tell you,
there was a time when Russia was the second largest producer of gold in the world; that the nation has strong in-situ gold reserves;
and, that through its Swiss brokers, the Russians have long been major players in the gold market. It would follow that Russia is
physically capable of building significant gold reserves to back its ailing ruble. In recent years Russia has moved down the ladder in
terms of gold production having been replaced by the United States and others, however, the potential for a Russian wild card play has
always hung over the market like the gigantic flying saucer depicted in "Independence Day." Yesterday, the gold shorts jumped all over
the Putin gaffe, in essence, playing that card. The market tanked and the false sentiment has carried over to today's trading. (We see
this as a buying opportunity.) It has always been difficult for gold analysts to find out just exactly what was happening with the
Russian gold -- itself a riddle contained within the "mystery wrapped in an enigma." Now we have one more piece in the Russian
financial puzzle. In the October, 2000 News & Views, we published a table of the Top Twenty-Five Gold Holders and where they
stood relative to gold sales and leases. Russia was included. We can now update the Table. Our objective was to whittle down the
number of gold sellers and lessors in order to show that gold supply from central banks was rapidly shrinking both in the form of sales
and leasing. Just as we now know that a tumor can be killed by robbing it of its blood supply, so the obstacles to a rising gold price --
the sale and leasing of gold -- can be removed by cutting off the supply of cheap, central bank gold. The Table below tells the tale. You
can now change the Russia entry to read, "Sales blocked by International Monetary Fund Agreement/Leasing activity unknown."

(The Table mentioned is published at the Commentary & Review page. To enter, a one-time regitration is required. Please go to the link above.)

(2) The Jeffords' defection may carry implications beyond what the mainstream press is now reporting. What happened over the past
48-hours is akin to a partial coup d' etat with the Democrats dramatically regaining power in the Senate. This will complicate matters for
the Fed which could look to the White House as a control mechanism over the fiscal side of the monetary equation. Now its
relationship with the political (fiscal) side has become triangular. A tax cut, under a regime of controlled spending, is one thing. With
the Democrats in control of the Senate and already talking about a prescription drug subsidy among other spending measures, we might
very well get a tax cut accompanied with a string of new government social programs originating in the Senate. If nothing else, if we
had the specter of government gridlock before, we have it in spades now, and it would be difficult to imagine the politicians
maintaining gentlemanly decorum as this thing plays out. "Veto" will rejoin the political lexicon, and "deficit spending" the economic.
The Fed will be watching carefully and a further interest rate cuts the first victim of the Jeffords' Coup d' Etat.

That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. Have a good weekend.

If you have an interest in gold, please call:

(US 800-869-5115) ** (Can 1-800-294-9462) ** (Aus 0011-800-2761-2761) ** (EU 00-800-2760-2760)
TOLL FREE

Ask for Marie Ballard on gold orders of 10 ounces or less.

On gold orders over 10 ounces ask for George Cooper or Michael Kosares.

Tree in the Forest

(05/25/2001; 10:40:41 MDT - Msg ID: 54635)

Comex gold

Comex June gold OI down substantially now at 50,000 contracts. This is what should be happening with FND next Thursday. These levels are still too high however for Comex to stop into. With several days of rising OI, we could see a substantial number of stoppers in June.

Tree in the Forest

(05/25/2001; 10:49:45 MDT - Msg ID: 54636)

uponroof re: Moutaingold

You said:
"also-He's annoying because he's usually right."

Me: LOL! May we all be so annoying!

Old Yeller

(05/25/2001; 11:00:01 MDT - Msg ID: 54637)

Interesting commentary from Stephen Roach

http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-bin/bbs.pl?read=147776
Discussing the US dollar's vulnerability;

"There is a massive overhang of dollars offshore that gives non-US investors great power in demanding a higher premium for holding these assets Currencies ,of course,are a relative price.The question I always get is:what other asset would you rather own."

I think we could furnish a suggested answer to this question.

Turning to another favorite topic,derivatves,GE capital has announced a 1.2 billion dollar "paper" loss in it's latest statement.Interesting development;of course they figure they'll recoup this through interest rate adjustments in the future.

Nothing to worry about folks,just some temporary turbulence.
Please remain calm.

Old Yeller

(05/25/2001; 11:21:27 MDT - Msg ID: 54638)

Thoughts on the Russian ploy from Dan Ascani

http://www.gmstechstreet.com/cgi-bin/webbbs_gmspublic.pl?read=675
I sure like the way the last paragraph spells out the possible end result of the game.

JMB

(05/25/2001; 11:25:51 MDT - Msg ID: 54639)

Turning to the Paper Gold Market for just a moment...

The June and August paper contracts have closed higher than the September paper contract. Is this significant?

Sierra Madre

(05/25/2001; 11:34:54 MDT - Msg ID: 54640)

AEL...thanks for your post 54632

Yours are familiar and daily thoughts to me. It is pleasant to come across them in the wasteland of the world.

Sierra

Tree in the Forest

(05/25/2001; 11:47:59 MDT - Msg ID: 54641)

JMB-negative premium

This is backwardation. It means that people want gold now more than in the future. It is also the sign of a squeeze. The normal condition is contango where the future months cost more than the near month because there is a carrying charge or premium.

uponroof

(05/25/2001; 12:24:20 MDT - Msg ID: 54642)

GRIDLOCK IS A GOOD THING

USAGOLD CommentaryThank you for the daily commentary. It is always in the right perspective, informative, and usefull. I'd like to amplify on a point about US political gridlock.

Commentary:

"....If nothing else, if we had the specter of government gridlock before, we have it in spades now, and it would be difficult to imagine the politicians maintaining gentlemanly decorum as this thing plays out..."

Gentlemanly decorum? If I recall my history correctly there was a time in the 1800's when it was normal for fighting to brake out in the halls of congress. Spirited dissagreement is how we Americans arrive at final concessions that are tempered like steel. If fighting is no longer politically correct, I can only hope that pistol dueling makes a huge comeback and all shoot each other into inconsequential minorities.

Aside from that.....I will be elated if gridlock means no new laws (no new losses of freedoms). I am a conservative, and almost always vote republican, but the party has had to morph radically in order to keep up with the never ending left side landslide.....day and night, like gravity it never ends.

As I've said many times, John F. Kennedy would be considered a conservative by today's standards. In 1962 he was a liberal. The world is moving left. So much so that a good conservative today would have been incarcerated 100 yrs ago for any number of financial, societal, and just plain commom sense violations.

I despise Mr. Jeffords and his sellout claim to fame. I loath liberals and their absense of black and white absolutes. But today's 'conservatives' are no more than the lessor of two evils. Least yet is 'gridlock'.

No wonder paper is king these days.....

btw- As my good friend Jake points out: What would've happened to Captain Dixon, of the Confederate Army, if his sweetheart had sent him 20 one dollar bills instead of that $20 gold piece? (which miraculously shielded him from a union pumpkin ball)

sector-hello old friend!

SteveH

(05/25/2001; 12:55:14 MDT - Msg ID: 54643)

repost

www.kitco.comDate: Fri May 25 2001 13:59
Bob (BBC about "gold fanatics". Gold bugs bitten again) ID#119199:
Copyright � 2000 Bob/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The price of gold spiked earlier this week, only to collapse again... so what is happening, asks the BBC's Rodney Smith.
When the gold price spiked at $297 an ounce in intra-day trading on Thursday, the gold bugs watched for the inevitable - and they didn't have long to wait.

Big New York investment banks were swiftly reported to be selling - ostensibly, say the gold fanatics, to keep the price depressed and protect the banks.

Gold bugs believe that banks are afraid of being swept up in the stampede of hedging failures if the gold price did recover strongly.

Then Vladimir Putin was reported saying he expected to sell gold to help flood victims in Eastern Siberia.

Ah, so that was the reason gold fell so fast from its near $300 peak this year. Mr Putin's alleged remarks were widely reported.

Only it turns out that he did not say he planned to sell gold, that he was misrepresented.

Instead, the Russian central bank confirms World Gold Council reports that it is a net buyer of gold.

It's also believed to be sticking to an International Monetary Fund agreement to limit gold sales.

So the plot thickens.

As soon as the gold price moves higher, the big banks hit it hard enough - and without any help from the Russians or anyone else - to knock it firmly back.

Derivatives market professionals in the United States report that the big brokers are selling the forward August contracts because they are scared they will be left exposed on their June contracts.

If the deadpan bankers who poo-poo all of this are correct, that will all be that, and the gold price will hang around the $260 to $270 range.

If they are not, and the gold bugs know as much as they say they do, the gold market could be in for very interesting time as short gold positions are uncovered, shorts rush to buy gold...

And the price? Well that's anyone's guess.

Or anyone's bet?

Old Yeller

(05/25/2001; 13:54:05 MDT - Msg ID: 54644)

COTs as of May 22

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm
How things stood before yesterday's flip-flop.

Thanks to goldstocktrader at Kitco for the link.

Tannehill

(05/25/2001; 14:09:08 MDT - Msg ID: 54645)

(No Subject)

Strange juxtaposition of two stories on the same web page, me thinks...
ABCNEWS.com : Greenspan Targets U.S. Futures Laws
- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned today that time was running out for Congress to overhaul U.S. futures laws and prevent the loss of lucrative markets ...
http://abcnews.go.com/sections/business/DailyNews/ greenspan_000210_feature.html - size 40.2K

ABCNEWS.com : Elderly Investors Duped by Marketing, NASD Alleges
- The National Association of Securities Dealers charged Monday that broker Xxxx Xxxxxx Xxxxxxxx unfairly coaxed thousands of elderly investors to put $2 billion into ...

much of their portfolio was comprised of risky mortgage-derivative securities highly sensitive to interest-rate fluctuations, ....

http://more.abcnews.go.com/sections/business/dailynews/nasd001121.html - size 24.8K

*******************************

reading both articles it just seems that they go hand in hand, is this the market that Greenspan is worried that the U.S. will lose?

did anyone else notice that G.E. Capital has announced that they lost $1.2 billion in the derivatives market, and I thought the derivatives were to reduce risk, wonder what would have happened if they did not have derivaties?

derivatives and POG strange connections.

Next thing they will tell us is that some funds actually lost money useing computer trading. He says, similing... Computer trading, I'll give you a 486 for an Apple IIG, if you throw in an ounce of gold.

That's all from Tannehill

Max Rabbitz

(05/25/2001; 14:18:16 MDT - Msg ID: 54646)

Russian Gold

Why did the IMF forbid Russian gold sales yet a couple of years ago they tried to dump their own gold on the market for third world debt relief? This was thought to be an attempt to depress the price of gold and was stopped by an unusal coalition of Republicans and the Black Caucus. Perhaps economic stability in Russia is more important than gold suppression? Europe needs Russian energy supplies. I find it interesting that the IMF really does think gold is important.....but didn't want to advertise it. Thanks Putin.

Randy (@ The Tower)

(05/25/2001; 14:24:48 MDT - Msg ID: 54647)

From the depths of our Gilded Opinion section (Feb 1999)... STILL apropos and worth your full consideration

http://www.usagold.com/SpinmeistersHathaway.htmlJohn Hathaway has a talent to verbally hold your hand to lead you through the murkiness of the gold market as few others can.

"Gold's worst enemy by far is the bullion bankers. Purveyors of unrelenting pessimism, their collective voices have affected a generation of thinking in the financial markets at large and among their clientele which includes mining companies, central banks, and hedge funds. . . . It is quite apparent that gold has been held in check by the artificial constraints we have described. As these constraints become better understood, the short position that they are built upon on will come under speculative attack."

(click the URL above to learn more)

R Powell

(05/25/2001; 14:46:53 MDT - Msg ID: 54648)

One and one half fer day

POG ended down, lease rates were mixed and the XAU was up 1.66. Interesting that the short term and long term lease rates were up while the two and three month rates were down (according to Kitco). So we close the week on a one and one half out of three day.
Although I don't put too much faith in the relationship, lumber was down again with gold and soybeans was down with silver. I'm encouraged that the lease rates are hanging tough and the mining stocks ended the week on the plus side. If rates and the XAU remain strong then it's just a matter of time for POG to follow. Let's let Spot rest over the weekend so he's bright eyed and bushy tailed for next week. Happy holidays to all!
Rich

auspec

(05/25/2001; 14:52:55 MDT - Msg ID: 54649)

Sacre Bleu {sp?}

Chapman follow upThis is a snippet from the very well respected analyst from South Africa, Peter George. Posted at LeMetropole!

<<

Greenspan understood quite clearly what was being referred to. He was well aware the �swaps� had been used to manipulate the gold market. This critical new evidence has been passed on to the Bush Administration and to Senator Lieberman. The Senator has now woken up to the fact that in Greenspan's sanctimonious response of a year ago, the honourable Chairman of the Fed had blatantly lied to him. No doubt the good Senator will pursue the matter further.

With Rubin and Summers gone, Greenspan was the one person still in office whom the Bush Administration could nail with responsibility for the gross misdemeanours committed under the Clinton watch. He was told the new Administration was no longer prepared to continue disposing of Treasury gold behind the back of Congress. He was further instructed to contact the Bullion Banks concerned and inform them that they had �til the end of May to bring their derivative books into balance. He was to warn them that the game was up and they could no longer count on covert support from the Fed and Treasury in their scheme to depress gold.

One of GATA's supporters, Bob Chapman, who writes �The International Forecaster�, obtained a copy of Greenspan's top secret instruction to the banks and broadcast it over the internet. This was Wednesday a week ago and gold was only $268. We have seen his e-mail. This was no post facto �explanation� for what subsequently happened.

Greenspan's letter was dynamite � no less shattering than the Washington Agreement of September 1999. Except the Fed Chairman had meant to keep it within the �club�. On publication, demand for the metal exploded. The banks tried desperately to hold the line on bullion below the critical $275 level. Once they folded, the move triggered huge short covering by hedge funds patterning their investment strategy on the seemingly immutable powers of the Bullion Banks. In their panic, the hedge fund scramble to cover drove gold prices to within an inch of $300.

There is no doubt that full credit for the breaking of the cartel's stranglehold goes to GATA. Hence our scripture below:

"Do not despise the day of small things."

With the coming of the internet, truth is like an arrow tipped with a hand grenade. It spreads like never before, crushing the monopoly power of the establishment press, opening doors, revealing secrets. The internet itself may not always be profitable for providers and suppliers, but its unrestrained and increasing use by the public helps expose corruption in high places.>>> END

Note-- The saga continues as we glimpse at the underlying battle. Get em GATA!

auspec

(05/25/2001; 15:04:27 MDT - Msg ID: 54650)

R Powell

GATA Sparked Spot's SpikeRich, Spot better get a LOT of rest this weekend! There are numerous reasons to accept what Chapman put out a week ago in reference to shutting down Federal support of the Gold Schmucks. The end of May approacheth, and more revelations are possibly 'in the pipeline'. You will not convince this bloke that the recent spike by spot wasn't sparked by GATA, S Africa, and the essence of Chapman's alert a while back. No coincidence!
Stay tuned, we may get a little more overnight excitement before the Holiday is complete. Hopeful.

Tree in the Forest

(05/25/2001; 15:26:37 MDT - Msg ID: 54651)

Sector

Wow, everybody's showing up here! Welcome Sector. I have been a follower of your knowledgable postings over at GE. Well there's plenty of room at this table so pull up a chair!

SHIFTY

(05/25/2001; 16:24:24 MDT - Msg ID: 54652)

Auspec

Auspec: I seem to have made a note of your e-mail address some time ago. Thought I would ask you if you would like for me to send you mine. Let me know.

auspec

(05/25/2001; 16:28:17 MDT - Msg ID: 54653)

$hifty

Yes, Shifty, please do.

aunuggets

(05/25/2001; 16:28:36 MDT - Msg ID: 54654)

auspec : Give us an inch, and we'll take a mile........

In your posting #54649, it was mentioned that ".....In their panic, the hedge fund scramble to cover drove gold prices to within an inch of $300......"

If that means "an inch" is equal roughly to the $2.00 we came up short of $300 at the beginning of the week, and a mile equals 5,280 feet or 63,360 inches, then according to my calculations....... $2.00 x 63,360 plus spot at $277.50......

So, if they give us an inch, and we take the proverbial mile, current gold price in fiat should equal $126,997.50 per ounce !!!!

Am I starting to sound like a REAL advocate yet ? (grin)

auspec

(05/25/2001; 16:36:35 MDT - Msg ID: 54655)

Zelotes' Latest

Just in from Adam Hamilton, ANOTHER GATA GUY, again from LeMetropole. Can't figure out why he would currently be using valcono-like analogies, hmmmm. Snippet:

"With these recent historical technical precedents, we believe $325 gold is the current mega-critical level, the nexus of the struggle to liberate gold from its oppressors."

"IF the gold market rises in a controlled, orderly fashion, we suspect that we will need a few weeks or a month of closes above $325 to convince the gold bulls and bears alike that "something IS different this time" and lead to a massive influx of new capital into gold. IF the gold market rises chaotically and rapidly, as on May 18, we believe that we will need to see closes WELL above $325 (say $350 or so) for a few days or a week in order to convince the battered gold bulls and the ever-skeptical gold bears that the rally has legs. Either way, new capital will pour into the gold market ultimately taking gold to heights few today dream possible and slowly and painfully addressing the enormous global gold supply/demand deficit and short position that the anti-gold manipulation scheme has created over the last seven years."

"Today, the vibrant Italian city of Naples sits in the shadow of the deadly Mount Vesuvius. Although the volcano has erupted more than 50 times since Pompeii was immolated, two million people choose to live in the immediate vicinity of the mountain of death today. Not even four hundred years ago, in 1631, Vesuvius claimed another 4000 victims. Meanwhile, magma continues to slowly build in pressure underneath the mountain today and everyone knows another eruption is inevitable. Two MILLION people, fully aware of this, choose to tempt fate and live within the deadly embrace of this mountain of fire."

"Like a volcano, the long-suppressed global gold market has also been slowly building pressure, trapped beneath the hardened lava dome of a concerted official and elite private effort at gold price manipulation. Also like a volcano, gold has shown over and over through history that it cannot be suppressed for very long. The power of free markets coupled with the innate human lust for real money, gold, ALWAYS, 100% of the time, shatters efforts at obscuring gold's true value. Just as the titanic earth forces driving a volcano cannot be bottled up forever, neither can the anti-gold forces contain the ever-building pressure behind their manipulated gold market indefinitely."

"The May 18 rally, the GATA revelations, the rising gold lease rates, the astoundingly large short position, and the tight physical market are all warning signs. These are the equivalent of swarms of small earthquakes peppering a volcano prior to it letting go."

"We are now observing initial pressure-blowoff warning signs in gold, and the great financial lessons of history coupled with the immutable laws of free-market economics ensure gold is preparing for a spectacular price eruption. The gold shorts will be immolated in this eruption as thoroughly as the ancient citizens of Pompeii who dared to live in the shadow of a monster." END

Adam Hamilton, CPA, MCSE
aka Zelotes
25 May 2001

Note-- Links to this essay as well as Peter George's will probably be available in near future. Hopefully.

SHIFTY

(05/25/2001; 16:40:40 MDT - Msg ID: 54656)

Auspec

Mail Call

auspec

(05/25/2001; 16:41:41 MDT - Msg ID: 54657)

aunuggets

aunuggets, your figures make at least as much sense as WGC official supply numbers! Actually, I like the way your brain works, keep calculatin! I understand that gold is supposed to go 'to the moon', let's see an inch is $2 and how far is it to da moon....................???!!!

R Powell

(05/25/2001; 19:37:49 MDT - Msg ID: 54658)

Auspec

Thanks for the information by Peter George about Chapman's interception of a Greenspan letter. I had thought that Chapman's initial announcement about the end of May deadline was a bombshell, so much so that I asked for some sort of confirmation. Hopefully, this is it. If so, any media exposure should put the fire to this explosive, no?
JMB (54639), thanks for noticing this backwardation. Tree in the Forest (54641), thanks for the explanation.
Backwardation in the futures, XAU index as the leading gaining sector this year, lease rates up with five Fed. rate cuts, POG becoming very volatile and now what looks like a possible verification of Chapman's news.!!
How can explosive prices be anything but a matter of time?? Add GATA's continuing efforts, a possible June short squeeze, and public displeasure with the BOE auctions to add more possible price positive forces and Spot will really be off and running.
Not investment advice but I'm thinking about half the farm. Well, a bigger position at any rate.
Rich

R Powell

(05/25/2001; 20:03:25 MDT - Msg ID: 54659)

Dollar strength

MoutainGold (54629), "Why the dollar continues strong is a real mystery to me."
If you're judging the dollar's strength from the dollar index, remember that this shows its strength in comparison to other currencies. Is it possible, as M.K. has suggested, that the dollar is simply not weakening as fast as other currencies so that any comparison shows the dollar as actually gaining against the others?
Greenspan just indicated that he and the Fed. are still ready to lower the rate again if necessary. Will another cut bring the desired results? It might as far as what I'd like to see concerning gold and silver prices but mortgage rates and Fed. rate cuts have already diverged. One more cut may be one too many straws.
Rich

Cavan Man

(05/25/2001; 20:35:36 MDT - Msg ID: 54660)

None

Been a long week and; gonna be a long weekend of volunteer service. It is good to be here. Thanks....CM

Cavan Man

(05/25/2001; 20:38:16 MDT - Msg ID: 54661)

auspec

$325/OZ? That number is not too far from the FOA/Another $360 which has been referenced as the point of, to paraphrase, losing control. Kind regards....CM

VanRip

(05/25/2001; 20:45:03 MDT - Msg ID: 54662)

Arch Crawford and Gold

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/2BA603990D5EE2B785256A5400199C5A?http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/2BA603990D5EE2B785256A5400199C5A?OpenDocumentI hope this hasn't been posted already. It is Arch Crawford's take on the gold market. I have followed his unusual writings for quite some time, and though I must admit I have never plunked down any money on his forcasts, he has been surprisingly correct on a number of occasions. As I understand it, he has quite a large following.

<
... A couple of Very Long Term cycles in metals are coming due this month & in June! Jupiter/Neptune cycle is the strongest single cycle in Gold, and the very least in stock prices. THe 3rd & final Jupiter trine Neptune in Ephemeris Longitude...is April 5. The final hit in Right Ascension is April 25.

That will, we believe, tremendously reduce the selling pressure. Mars & Neptune retrograde on May 10-11 is another Short Term low...

As these events unfold, the selling pressure comes off first, and bases are formed. Then we get some surprising UPSIDE, then pullback into secondary low, after which GOLD (metals) will go FAR and LONG.
...STORE OF VALUE ONCE MORE REVERED!">>

Arch Crawford

Cavan Man

(05/25/2001; 20:49:10 MDT - Msg ID: 54663)

HBM

You have mail.

Cavan Man

(05/25/2001; 20:52:16 MDT - Msg ID: 54664)

VanRip

I do find it "curious" that any posts having religious or spiritual under/over tones are many times pooh poohed but, quote a soothsayer, a person who IMHO is deceived by demons and well, it's down right respectable. Go figure and g'nite.

VanRip

(05/25/2001; 20:57:46 MDT - Msg ID: 54665)

Arch Crawford Link

http://www.theminingweb.com/Link to the post re ArchCrawford does not seem to work. His information can be found in a post at the above link. If interested, scroll down to:

GATA supporters fly to association's defence.

JMB

(05/25/2001; 20:58:07 MDT - Msg ID: 54666)

CAVAN MAN

It's a sign of the times....rejoice.

Tree in the Forest

(05/25/2001; 21:14:59 MDT - Msg ID: 54667)

MoutainGold

I saw a post a month or so ago from Goldenrod over on GE. He had info that the SM would be propped up for several weeks ending sometime between now and the end of June. Do you remember this post? Now I hear from someone that there will be problems after June 15. This is options expiration. Maybe there is time for one more pump before expiration and then bam. Anyhow, I was looking at the June DJX option chains (puts) and there is huge OI for June. Much less for July. So holding things up til expiration makes sense. Are you seeing anything that would corrobrate this in your charts? Thanks.

auspec

(05/25/2001; 21:20:23 MDT - Msg ID: 54668)

Cavan Man/Belgian

C.M.-Hello, good Sir. Yes, $325 is not too far away as we saw the other night. I have said "wake me at $325", but am actually fully awake NOW. GATA has gone into the belly of the beast and stirred things up ROYALLY {ha}. The timing and price action of the gold action this last week makes perfect sense with 100 tons of gold being dumped by BoE. Thanks guys, for shooting all your stray golden bullets. Green$pandex is helping the shorts get through May, and there will soon be Hell to pay. Wonder if the Brits care about this little gold indescretion?
GATA is firing with all barrels as major pieces are out from Peter George, Frank Veneroso, as well as Adam Hamilton. Midas is sure to follow in VERY near future! This Russian deal, what a complete joke. How predictable, pathetic, and desperate.

Belgian-- You have nailed AngloGold to a tee! Peter George's essay goes into detail about their predatory ways, but I don't feel like I can put up his entire article at this point. Anglo is pure and simple a mechanism to get future production dumped onto the market now, while predatorily replacing those reserves with those of its victims who were forced to sell at the manipulated lows {because of the forward sells}. Replace the dumped reserves on the cheap so the cycle can continue. Anglo share holders-stick it to them! Belgian, now we've got some more TA guys on board with Mountain Gold and someone else? Welcome to all, very much look forward to your input.
As far as wildcat gold mining is concerned, have recently seen figures that estimates it at 10% of the official mining figures. That is quite interesting, and probably higher as theft is taken into consideration. That's a lot of tiny bottles of gold.
Best to all, the times they are a changing.
auspec

JMB

(05/25/2001; 22:00:11 MDT - Msg ID: 54669)

Mr. Peter George has said in part...

"Without permission from the new Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, the harassed Fed chief hastily arranged for the Bank of England to lend 100 tons of gold to help his friends at the Bullion Banks."

Oh, I see...now we have another CIA type coming up with the real skinny. What a bunch of baloney! Chapman and George are sensationalists who are out to make a buck...they'll say anything, true or false, to gain an audience.

They're fun to read but you'd better not use their "inside info" when it comes to timing your gold investments.

Peter Asher

(05/25/2001; 22:04:32 MDT - Msg ID: 54670)

@ Solomon Weaver

Going further into the Euro situation and referring back to your earlier post (which I see was greatly appreciated albeit not seconded,)

I was glad to see some like-mindedness on the concept of velocity. Money supply as a quantity is but one leg of a tripod. The amount of product being created and the frequency at which producers turn over their wares to the receivers and consumers comprise the other two legs necessary to achieve balance. In essence, quantity and velocity equals a moment of inertia with the gross unit product being the mass upon which it is exerting force. Price deflation or inflation is a result of either side of the equation being of greater magnitude.

Regarding the EU; correct me if I am mistaken, but I believe it is much more difficult there for an individual to go into business for himself. They need a license to do almost anything. One of our great freedoms is that anyone can open up their version of a lemonade stand by simply coming up with the fruit, sugar, ice, water cups and the orange crate to set it on! This makes our economy more able to "Bend and not break", for individuals to jump into every breech and fill the opportunity. In effect we have the best �liquidity of production�.

This is a major element in my ongoing contention that hyper -inflation is impossible in our highly developed affluent infrastructure. We are capable of bypassing the whole monetary system using barter, specie or IOU chits. We as a society would run out of money before we ran out of the ingredients of production.

Possibly the most profound statement ever made regarding our nations productive capability was made by Admiral Yamamoto, when his cohorts were exalting over their victory at Pearl Harbor and he said to them "I fear we have awakened a sleeping giant, and filled him with a great resolve."

Tree in the Forest

(05/25/2001; 22:22:17 MDT - Msg ID: 54671)

Comex Commitment of Traders

Commercials are now heavily net short gold on Comex. This means a falling POG. This looks like a setup for the downward spike predictions of some analysts which I have posted here. It may be that they want to clear out the longs before letting gold run. They've already cleared the shorts so now they can drop it on its derriere. I believe that a lot of the reasons for changes in POG that are given are BS. I don't think for example that comments made by Putin are a cause for a fall. Or that other reasons given are a cause for a rise. These prices are manipulated as we all know, and these propaganda news releases and rationalizations are just to cover their manipulations. They wanted to let gold go up but they don't want sheeple to make money on it. So they have to clear out the longs by dropping the POG. But before they can drop it, they have to clear out the shorts or they might make some money. So they pump it up. The net result is first a sharp rise and then a sharp fall and only then will gold be let go. Just in time for the end of June when Comex defaults. Everything is well planned ahead of time. Nobody wants to believe it because they don't want to believe that anyone could be so crooked and manipulative. They can be. Believe it.

Lafisrap

(05/25/2001; 22:59:11 MDT - Msg ID: 54672)

Tree's predictions

Tree said:
The net result is first a sharp rise and then a sharp fall and only then will gold be let go. Just in time for the end of June when Comex defaults.

Me: That certainly qualifies as a prediction. It offers a time and event, and it's verifiable. In the investment game, credibility is won with accurate predictions. I find it absolutely refreshing that you have made a prediction. I hope that the POG goes way up, as I have made my bets that it will. Educational discourse on the nature of currency, inflation, deflation, human nature, etc. is all very well, and I do enjoy it, but I sure do need the POG to go to $30,000. I really need that.

Tree, thanks for your courage. You win by default just by playing, just by making the prediction. Very few dare to. No guts no glory.

Lafisrap

Lafisrap

(05/25/2001; 23:21:48 MDT - Msg ID: 54673)

Lafisrap's prediction

In virtually every large metro area in the U.S. coin shops buy and sell gold bullion coins. Their spread is approx. $20. For example, given that the spot POG on Monday is $278, you buy a 1-oz American Gold Eagle from the coin shop for $286. Some day thereafter, the spot POG is once again $278. You then sell your 1-oz American Gold Eagle back to the coin shop. You receive $273. You lost $13 on the speculation. (Pretty lousy insurance investment too.)

In the last couple years, some coin shops have relied on sell backs for most/all of their gold bullion inventory. I know because I talk to the shop owners, and I doubt very much that the area in which I live is an anomaly.

My prediction: The activity described above will continue until the price at which coin shop customers are willing to sell back their gold bullion coins goes into the many thousands. Then the sellbacks will stop, because people will choose to hold the gold.

OK, well, not much boldness there, but I don't really know all that much about this gold business, just that the number of people making money in it is very few.

Lafisrap

Netking

(05/26/2001; 00:14:53 MDT - Msg ID: 54674)

Ag - Graphs

http://www.sharelynx.net/Charts/Silver-Deficit.gifHere's something for the Silver/Gold TA's

The 2nd link (below) will show a diagrmatic representation of the respective demand & supply dynamics, enjoy, NetKing

http://www.sharelynx.net/Charts/Silver-Cumulative.gif

View Yesterday's Discussion.

Black Blade

(05/26/2001; 00:24:06 MDT - Msg ID: 54675)

Dirty Gold in Goldman Sachs? - Or How About - "Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap?"

http://msnhomepages.talkcity.com/ReportersAlley/thecatbirdseat/GoldmanSachs.htm

Snippits:

The dealings that Goldman Sachs had with their client Ashanti are sickening. It is hard to reconcile Goldman's actions in a world where the meaning of words such as honesty, fiduciary responsibility, fairness and some concern for your fellow man, is known to all. If an individual lacked such basic traits, we would all consider that unfortunate. For an institution like Goldman to lack such traits is unacceptable. The public record shows that Goldman misled Ashanti. Just a little bit of common sense will prove it. Step back for a moment, and try to put what happened in the Ashanti - Goldman relationship into proper perspective. Ashanti, which has only been a public company for five years, increased its Goldman-sanctioned short strategy to the point where a $60 increase in the price of gold rendered it insolvent.

As disturbing as Goldman's transgressions against Ashanti are, I've always thought that one of the uglier aspects to the fraud and manipulation in gold and silver has been the hardship borne by the individuals who actually toil down in the mines. Not only do they labor in an unbelievably difficult environment, they all too often are deprived a livelihood because of the artificially depressed prices of gold and silver.

Over the course of the leasing scam, hundreds of thousands of innocent people (most of them black Africans) have been thrown out of work due to mine closures because of low prices. If that was because of legitimate supply/demand forces, it remains just sad and unfortunate. But if it was because of a manipulative hand from the canyons of Wall Street, it is also outrageous and unacceptable.

In this sense, while I've singled out Goldman Sachs in their dealings with Ashanti, Goldman wasn't alone at Ashanti, nor in the overall leasing scheme. By artificially depressing the price through their manipulative actions, AIG, Chase, JP Morgan, UBS and Republic Bank, and others, are also racists in the institutional discrimination against laid-off black workers. That they also caused the non-racist unemployment of non-black or other minority mine workers, does not lessen their guilt, that crime is
separate to the discrimination.

Black Blade: Institutional Racism against African Blacks perpetuated by major bankers like Goldman Sachs among others may just be a matter of policy and a method of doing business. Quite an article detailing Goldman Sachs, and a virtual who's who list of characters, unethical and illegal insider dealings, nazi gold, international institutional racism, political corruption, etc. It would not be surprising as institutional racism is endemic at many large financial institutions. Take a hard look at UBS, Credit Suisse, etc, where prior to and during World War II, these bankers and their predecessors were in bed with the National Socialists (nazis). They knowingly took gold, gems, and works of art that they knew to be stolen and taken from murdered people. They hid this wealth from the prying eyes of the legitimate heirs because they were not thought of as blond haired - blue eyed "Aryan" peoples. By destroying the value of gold or at least the perception of gold as a worthless item, they could perpetuate their campaign of international institutionalized racism. This continues today in other parts of the World as well, notably South Africa, probably revenge for the ending of Apartheid. This could be carried further as Leftists like former US Treasury Secretary and former chairman of Goldman Sachs may have been involved with Alan Greenspan and Larry Summers in schemes to depress the POG, partly for massaging the data to hide the dangers that could doom the economic expansion, but also to destroy the economies of nations populated by black majorities where gold is a vital product. Today, environmental leftists are engaged in a campaign of "environmental Racism" where the excuse of protecting the planet is a common plea, however, the motive may be more sinister. The Inapiut of Alaska wish to expand petroleum exploration and development in ANWR and reap the economic benefits for their people. Yet racist leftists in the US Government like Barbara Boxer and Diane FineSwine and Phoney environmental organizations like "Club Sierra" hope to deny the indigenous peoples the means to become independent of public handouts and to pursue a life based on self-determination.

Anyway, one could see all this as possibility based on past performance and current policy. I am not sure that I believe everything here, but the possibility is intriguing at least. A "Vast Left Wing Conspiracy of Racism?" The possibilities are endless. Food for thought.

Black Blade

(05/26/2001; 01:55:22 MDT - Msg ID: 54676)

Gas prices expected to rise as summer arrives

http://www.msnbc.com/news/578285.asp
Snippit:

Tight supplies are keeping prices erratic. Gasoline inventories in the United States are 26 percent lower than they were two decades ago and no new refineries have been built since 1976. With refiners struggling to keep up with demand, machinery is being worked extra hard and factories have had to shut down for repairs, leading to further price spikes.

Black Blade: Good concise article. Lays it on the line. Higher costs are inevitable. Maybe Americans should stop whining about higher gas prices and start whining about wages that are too low to buy fuel. Demand higher wages to counter higher energy costs ;-)

Black Blade

(05/26/2001; 02:17:36 MDT - Msg ID: 54677)

Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan - or - Cheetah Chirps!

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2001/200105242/default.htm
Snippits:

The sharp rise in energy costs has also pressed down directly on profit margins, especially in the fourth and first quarters. A substantial portion of the rise in total costs of nonfinancial, non-energy corporations between the second quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year reflected the increase in energy costs. Prices paid for natural gas and petroleum products by these corporations continued to rise into the first quarter, but have eased this spring. Electric power prices, however, continued to rise sharply through last month. Going forward, the prospect for higher electricity costs is most pronounced, of course, in California.

The rise in natural gas prices last quarter contributed directly and indirectly (through its effect on the cost of electrical power generation) much of the rise in overall energy costs for nonfinancial, non-energy corporations. Because we import little natural gas, higher prices largely result in a transfer of income from natural gas users to natural gas producers. Nonetheless, these higher prices are likely to weigh on the economy in the short run because the increase in capital spending by energy producers is unlikely to offset the drag on spending by energy consumers.

More recent concerns have arisen with respect to possible effects of higher gasoline prices on the economy. A rise in these prices this summer, as many fear, would, as always, act as a tax on households' incomes and spending, hardly welcome in today's context. However, while wholesale and retail prices for gasoline have surged in recent months, crude prices have not. Apparently, owing to a shortage of operating refining capacity in the United States, gross refining margins have widened by about 20 cents per gallon seasonally adjusted since February. With some temporarily closed refining capacity coming back on-line, and with higher gasoline prices likely to curb consumption and draw in product imports, market forces seem to be poised to contain further price increases at the pump. Presumably this is the reason that gasoline prices for future wholesale delivery are well below current elevated levels.

And�

As many commentators have observed, the yield curve has steepened appreciably since the beginning of the year, and especially since mid-March. How does one read this market behavior? Is the steepening wholly a reflection of an expected firming in economic activity, or are rising inflation expectations lurking in the figures?

Black Blade: A few slips of the tongue? All is not too rosy as Cheetah chirps on and tries to deliver a snow job. Had it been a typical trading day yesterday instead of a quiet day ahead of the Memorial day weekend, it could have been a Blood Bath on Wall Street. Time to take precautions (a modest position in gold?) as reality sets in amid lowered corporate earnings and higher "real" observable inflation.

Black Blade

(05/26/2001; 02:32:29 MDT - Msg ID: 54678)

Energy Thefts Climb Amid Power Crisis

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A79626-2001May25.html
Snippit:

As the price of electricity and natural gas climbs in many parts of the country, energy thieves are becoming more aggressive and resourceful in bypassing gas and electric meters - or tapping directly into distribution lines.

Black Blade: Rising energy costs result in increased crime.

Black Blade

(05/26/2001; 02:52:44 MDT - Msg ID: 54679)

Energy Crisis Drains California Governor's Rating

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010525/pl/politics_california_dc_1.html
Snippit:

The Field Poll found that 49 percent of Californians now disapprove of Davis' performance in office against 42 percent who approve. In January, before the energy crisis began to bite, the Democratic governor scored a hefty approval margin of 60 percent to 30 percent. The poll results mark bad news for Davis, who has been struggling since January with a crippling energy crisis that has brought blackouts and sharply higher power rates to the state and seen its largest utility forced into bankruptcy.

More important politically, registered voters in the state now line up 51 percent to 41 percent against a second term for Davis, the poll said. It further showed that opposition to Davis was running much more intensely than support, with 32 percent of voters indicating they were ``not at all inclined'' to re-elect him, while just 14 percent said they were ``very inclined'' to give him a second term.

Black Blade: Kommissar Davis is also suffering from being an idiot. His proposal to seize power plants exposed him as a communist of the highest order. Even Kalifornians find that unpalatable. And to think that the Dems had floated the idea that he could be the next Dem Candidate for President. How quickly those dreams have vaporized. However, it is too late for the economy of Kalifornia (and the rest of the US for that matter). As the Grasshoppers swelter in the dark this summer amid the rolling riots (in areas forecast by the new "Burglar Alert" system) they will hold a special place in their hearts for the Kommissar.

Black Blade

(05/26/2001; 03:03:44 MDT - Msg ID: 54680)

Don't Let Gold Doldrums Fool You

http://www.tfc.com/syndication/TFC/Mavens-Gold.html?G=MarketMavensReport&T=Gold%20Market&A=Mavens-Gold
Larry Edelson says next move in gold - "a Monster."

Black Blade

(05/26/2001; 03:15:08 MDT - Msg ID: 54681)

The Folly of Hedging

http://www.tocqueville.com/brainstorms/brainstorms.php?id=67
Snippit:

Among the factors depressing the gold price in recent years, forward selling and other hedging activities have been prominent. Producer hedging has added as much as two years' of future production since year end 1996 to normal mine supply. By accelerating future supply, the gold mining industry has exacerbated its woes. In trying to protect against the downside, hedgers have magnified it. Perhaps in recognition of self-damage caused by their activity, many leading hedgers indicated earlier this year that hedge books would not be increased in 2000. While these announcements represent a significant improvement in gold market fundamentals, few renounced hedging as a matter of principle. In most cases, room has been left to initiate new hedges at higher prices. The anti-hedging stance appears to be a temporary experiment rather than a permanent change in direction.

Black Blade: DITTO! Good article - well worth reading.

silvercollector

(05/26/2001; 05:11:40 MDT - Msg ID: 54682)

Thank you

Thanks to auspec, Galearis, Netking, HBM, Gandalf, megatron
and justamerebear for your correspondence recently.

auspec

(05/26/2001; 06:30:12 MDT - Msg ID: 54683)

JMB

Hello JMB. Per your recent post:
"Oh, I see...now we have another CIA type coming up with the real skinny. What a bunch of baloney! Chapman and George are sensationalists who are out to make a buck...they'll say anything, true or false, to gain an audience."

I couldn't disagree more about your dismissal of George's article. Have you had a chance to read it in its entirety, something tells me you may change your mind? Yes, it is sensational, but these are very unusual times, no? As far as another 'CIA type' providing information, do you doubt the big picture vision of someone who has an intelligence background? That is exactly who I would hope to gain insight from.
Furthermore, are you saying that George is former CIA? News to me and probably him also. You are the one who is "shooting from the hip" and you have just slandered one of your Christian brothers from what I can tell.
Best to you,
auspec

auspec

(05/26/2001; 07:12:35 MDT - Msg ID: 54684)

Gold Prepares To Erupt-- Zelotes

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/hamilton052801.html.

Belgian

(05/26/2001; 07:56:04 MDT - Msg ID: 54685)

The value of Gold and its price of 280$/ounce.....

280$/ounce is the same price of more than 21 years ago.
The previous generation (a generation = 25 years) has been very busy developping and expanding paper-money-generating tools. A 100.000 tonnes of Gold (or even less), has found its way in jewelry and investment. Let us assume the total for private investment gold + official gold (CBs) = 60.000 tonnes. Have these goldholders (of 60.000 tonnes) stored their wealth properly ? 99,9% will answer this question with a firm NO, they haven't. And right they are. For the simple reason that all these goldaccumulators and holders have paid for their gold with intrinsic stronger dollars and an average of more than 350$/ounce. If we can conclude that the private gold-accumulators have overpaid for their gold...than we better stop all discussion about storing wealth. But we all know that these (approx.) 30.000 tonnes of private investmentgold have been on the cheap for the full length of that generation of succesful entrepeneurs.

But what a minuscule amount is 30.000 tonnes of gold compared to the total amount of paper currency that is supposed to represent the value of all services and goods, produced, worldwide ? 30.000 tonnes x 350$ (average price paid) = 350 billion dollars. World stockmarket cap. = 10 trillion. Is 350 billion dollars *store of wealth*, the result of 25 years of world's exceptionnal economic growth and expansion ???? I call this an obscenety. How can goldholders possibly accept that their ultimate savings (Gold), are permanently declining (21 years) in value against a permanent depreciating paper-measurement-reference (dollar) ? Take a deep breath and let this simple reasoning filter trough...

And here I am again with my coca cola *standard*. Chart the cola-bottle price, worldwide in any currency. The evidence for total depreciation is there to see for ALL in its own currency. Why do gold producers and gold holders accept so easely to pay permanently more for their bottle of coke, whilst the price (not value) of their gold declines ?
Imagine the same decline should happen with the value of one's real estate tangibles. No way, you should let it happen.

That's why I don't understand the attitude of the private 30.000 tonnes goldholders ? The reason why they have accumulated physical gold in the past is that they already understood why "Gold" is the one and only store of wealth.
Simply, with adding a meager 5% (1.500 tonnes) to their 30.000 tonnes...they could squeeze all vulgarity out of the obscene POG and bring their Physical up to value.

Take all figures with a big grain of salt and focus only on the principle. Holders of physical gold * MUST * know very well that a POG of 280$ is an unacceptable idiotic and absurd situation. And not only for its price-comparaison of 21 years ago. And I don't want to suggest that all women should parade with cola-jewelry...but they shouldn't accept that their precious jewels, buy less and less cola worldwide. What an humiliation !

For the above reasons, I have some difficulties with understanding why we are making such a fuss about a 10$...20$ run up or down on POG. Gold is everything except "DEBT". But Debt is glorified and Gold must be dispised.
What are the core goldholders waiting for to add to their gold-reserves ? Are they expecting another (renewed) golden era of global economic expansion and exponentional growth of fiat masses ? Are the insane overvaluations of the new-economy bubbles a reference for the obscene undervaluation of the one and only debtless tangible with no borders ?
Is the gold-community (60.000 tonnes) too small for progressive value accomodation ? And are all private goldholders enslaved by the equal fraction of Gold-Manipulators ?

30.000 tonnes of private investment-gold is not enough gold to share it with a much broader goldrevalueing community.
Physical Gold possesion is too concentrated to organise global perception of its intrinsic value. Gold is an homeless minority that has its own rules.Why doesn't the gold-industry promotes, the broader base of gold-investment to guarantee a more natural price setting ? My answer remains that there is not enough gold to realise such a gold-peoples-power. De-vulgarise and Re-populise *Gold* is my message to them.

The absurd price-evolution of gold is the main reason for total des-interest by the masses. De-gold-inasation !
And to such extent that any clown can play (ras)Putin acts and have an influence on POG. Only very few have the intellectual and emotional capacity to take this gold-drama to their advantage. Is this the way it has to be ?

I even start doubting about the general reasons for (artificial) POG suppression ! The obscene today's POG isn't giving any signal. Will a POG explosion have such a tremendous impact on economic or monetary matters ?
A higher POG and larger amounts of central bank gold, would be a clear signal of stronger backing for all currencies involved. IMO, the contrary as to what is happening now !
There is very little elaboration on the consequences of higher goldprices and larger reserves. Again...is there enough gold for letting this happen without devastating shocks ? If a higher POG is undermining public's, confidence... why aren't the core goldholders exploiting this potential tension ? Sooooo bloody easy.

Goldsyndicate : what a terrible name for core goldholders !
In the past, they were the same money that organised the rallies and dips in POG to optimise their physical holdings.
First by accumulating mineshares and later by byuing the physical to justify the mineshares valuations. The profits made on mineshares, paid for the accumulated physical.
I suspect that POG fell too low for too much a period that their goldmoving initiatives are not followed by the gold-momentum-speculators. The central bank syndrome takes its toll. This time bomb needs to be defused. That's the historical job for the 3 man's army GATA.
Goldadvocates must help them, (and theirselves), actively, with buying physical gold. (NIA !!)
The greatest message to spread around is the "absurd" goldprice of today. I'm doing my best to do both of them.

JCTex

(05/26/2001; 08:23:51 MDT - Msg ID: 54686)

auspec (5/26/01; 06:30:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 54683)

We Christians are well-known for shooting our own wounded.

It would seem to me that whether we listen to the "CIA types", or watch the wiggles & squiggles, or read daily mine production records [I, personally use anything I can get], the idea is NOT TO MISS THE TRAIN....particulary this one. Ain't it nice to be able to say that........finally.

Thank you FOA, MK, ORO, Bill Murphy, and all the rest of you that have made your invaluable individual contributions.

The Peter George article was more than interesting.

Rockgrabber

(05/26/2001; 09:47:57 MDT - Msg ID: 54687)

Sir Tree

I know they can be that crooked. I expect nothing less out of them honestly. If you are wrong about June, you are not going to be wrong about the event occurring much after that anyhow. Thanks.

uponroof

(05/26/2001; 09:51:31 MDT - Msg ID: 54688)

Why no ambush on the POG wagon train?........ Richard 640

I have often wondered why gold and silver, with such small market caps, have never been ambushed by the deep pocket crowd. While we've all stated our suspicions, Richard does a nice job of clarifying thoughts as he answers an open question in Zelotes latest. The 'Belgian' also questions the absence of a "Sooooo bloody easy" squeeze in his previous post below.

*************************************

My E-mail to Adam Hamilton a.k.a. "Zelotes"
(richard640) May 26, 09:38

Just read your latest chef-d'oeuvre on G.E.
Hi, Zelotes, I am the disgraceful & ignominious "Richard 640". You may have seen my posts on Gold-Eagle or gotten an e-mail from me before--You ask/wonder in your article why some cartel or individual-like a Soros or Paul Tudor Jones-hasn't pulled a bear raid all these years. I, too, wondered and, a few years ago, posted my thoughts on the subject on G.E. This may sound a bit far-fetched but I believe it to be entirely plausible-I think that Governments-like, say, Saudi Arabia or Russia (or any other likely candidates), were directly and politely requested not to mettle,,,with the implied threat of gentle or not so "gentle persuasion"(one of my favorite movies & the best song Pat Boone ever recorded). Ditto for an individual or group of individuals (heads of hedge funds). With individuals, I think actual threats were made. They could have been IRS harrasment-zealous regulatory scrutiny-even threats on their lives-I think all potential raiders were told that there was simply too much at stake-including the status of the U.S. dollar and the need to maintain its value-(and the value of $ denominated "paper assets". Also, they were informed of the potential to cause a derivative, domino-like, explosion that could bankrupt major money center banks and cause a system wide loss of confidence. I don't think any of the foregoing is wildly outlandish--upon reflection on all the shenanigans in U.S. mkts. lo these past 11 yrs--from regulatory authorities turning a blind eye to outrageously quasi-legal corporate aacounting to fudged gov. economic stats--to prestigious Wall St houses bringing out IPOs that would have had their people horse whipped in former times--to socialist central planning & crony capitalism courtesy of the FED/Greenspan (where gains are privatised & losses socialised)--there can be no other explanation---actually, there could be one--The FEDs' surrogates-like a JP Morgan or G-Sachs, have been given an open checkbook to do the FEDs bidding-so a Soros or a Paul Jones don"t have 1/100th of the capital of these institutions-so they know there's no point challenging them.--I believe the FED has told a Morgan or a Sachs to do their bidding & if, on the one in a million chance, you get hurt, we'll bail you out.-so they carry out tasks like supressing gold or coming in and buying as many stock index futures as it takes to turn sentiment when the U.S. mkt. is peering into the abyss---Cheers, Richard Landwirth M.D.

******************************************

btw-The Hunt scandel, though it's 20 some yrs old, isn't hurting the well established FED intimidation policy. The word is out that gold is a no-no unless your an insider. That's why this revelation regarding Greenmans warning to hedged banks is so incredible. It reeks of desperation from a beaten man forced to reverse his own failed policy. Far from a courteous 'insider club' heads up tip.

'Stealth' policy changes require time to implement, especially in a market with such leverage in global currencies. If Greenman warned banks to houseclean, is it possible that others with squeezing on their mind were 'advised' to stand back from this 'free market'? The temptation to capitalize (greed) vs challeging the FED (fear) must be quite a battle in all camps, inside and out.

Will the outside squeezers be allowed in later, after the turn is completed? Or will it be 'hands off the thermostat' unless you're an insider? I suspect it will always be hands off unless it is the public that breaks the ice first in a fit of 'free market' irrational exubberance. A public raid, which is what they are working so hard to avoid, would give authorization to anyone to join, lest the term 'free market' lose all of it's pitiful remaining value.

The Fund Managers will play a big part as we all know the public never thinks for itself. Will Fund Managers lead us all off the reservation? How deep is the corruption in the free trade gold market? Have they too been warned, if not verbally through unspoken actions?

Can the FED engineer a reverse without triggering a runup?

There's an awful lot of greed brewing, and at the moment Greenman is not a very intimidating figure...in huge part, thanks to GATA.

JMB

(05/26/2001; 10:12:42 MDT - Msg ID: 54689)

AUSPEC

I may have libeled Mr. George but I sure didn't slander him. There is a difference....but why split hairs.

After quickly re-reading Mr. George's article I am now even more convinced that he is a sensationalist who greans bits of information here and there inorder to promote his business. As far as I can tell, there ain't a whole lot of original thinking there.

You may have already discarded the e-mail that Bill Murphy sent you announcing the George article, but if you still have it scroll down to the bottom and read George's e-mail to CNBC Europe. Read it three or four times. This guy is very competitive but not original, kinda like a journalist for the Star Magazine without the photos.

There is a Brit Tory who would love to nail Tony Blair to a golden cross. Do you really think the Bank of England loaned out 100 tonnes of gold to stop this rally? Think about that for just a moment. 100 tonnes...that's pretty close to a BILLION Dollars, I think. I read where the rally, on The Night That Leigh Wigged Out, was stopped by 1,200 contracts. What's that, 4 tonnes?

Here's more baloney..."One of GATA's supporters, Bob Chapman, who writes The International Forcaster, obtained a copy of Greenspan's top secret instructions to the banks and broadcast it over the internet. This was Wednesday a week ago and gold was only $268. We have seen his e-mail. This was no post facto explanation for what subsequently happened."

TOP SECRET, hahaha, you gotta love these guys. Come on AUSPEC, we're more likely to see proof of flying saucers before we see this TOP SECRET Greenspan e-mail. Congressman Dr.Ron Paul: "Ah, Chairman Greenspan, good morning sir. Ah, Chairman Greenspan, I have here a copy of an e-mail I want to talk about." Chairman Greenspan: "OH CRAP!"

JCTEX: I'm certainly not questioning Mr. George's relationship with the Lord Jesus Christ. But just like you, me, AUSPECT and the rest of the world, he's in desperate need of a savior. Most of the things I say are not God glorifying, I know that, I'm a long way from perfection. It's good to see you, Sir.

AUSPEC: There's never a dull moment when you're around, Sir. My very best regards to you too. And now for a little Doug Noland...later.

MoutainGold

(05/26/2001; 10:29:02 MDT - Msg ID: 54690)

Sharing Weekly TA on Gold, Silver and USDollar....

The weekly bar charts look promising for both Gold and Silver. Silver is showing great relative strength to Gold. It will lead Gold higher. The TA pattern is typical of an early major bull market. First rallies are ALWAYS retraced. Gold has notretraced 50% yet...this is very constructive and shows great up side momentum.

USDollar shows a nice RSI relative strength bearish divergence. An important top is possible for the USDollar.
Swiss franc and Euro look explosive.

This Friday before the Mem Holiday is predictive. When it is a down day, the odds favor a severe decline for the next 4 months. Unwise to put all analysis on one indicator, but this one is 90% reliable. Stock market of course.

Gold really represents economic freedom. The "elite" powers hate Gold since they can not print it. This is real power.
Gold is a symbol for all free man..... they must supress its meaning and its price. It sure beats me how people love the "paper" and clueless about Gold.
Economic ignorance is widespread. Were do they laern????

Great Holiday All.....IMHO and Later

Galearis

(05/26/2001; 11:10:22 MDT - Msg ID: 54691)

@ JMB re BOE 100 tonne gold dump

Very unlikely given their reserve problemsI do not think it is the dollar value of gold for the BOE that is really the problem with George's statement. It is a far weightier problem that that (smile).

Was it not the BOE who had to reduce the size of their gold auctions? Is it not the BOE that may now have qualification reserve gold problems for entering the EEC? (The probable reason for reducing the weight at auction.) And now we hear that the BOE has reached down to the bottom of the barrel and found another 100 tonnes of gold.

If any of the above is true (and EVERYTHING is to be questioned now in this environment where disinformation has "real" measurealble value/affect) then we can expect the last most recent BOE auction as the last BOE auction.

Yes?

This might be the real "news" of this tid-bit. If true, the bull is truly upon us!

@silvercollector: you're welcome. When costing out delivery of pms bought from a local coin/bullion dealer always consider that what one pays in gas to drive to a "cheaper" source is (now) about 40% of the cost of the trip. DRIVING YOURSELF is ALWAYS VERY EXPENSIVE if distance is involved. This should always be a factor in any decision for having product shipped to ones door or picked up personally from afar. Unless the supplier is VERY close (as is mine) then it is always recommended that one buy product from such good folks as reside here at Centennial etc., and buy in weight to spread the costs! (Not to imply that Centennial prices are not unreasonable; they aren't.) It is always the shipping charges that are that little straw that frustrates the camel. The obvious advantage to having a supplier nearby is that one can buy in smaller weight at ones convenience.

G.

SteveH

(05/26/2001; 11:46:27 MDT - Msg ID: 54692)

repost

www.kitco.comDate: Fri May 25 2001 19:41
permabear ( Eagle1 ( Central bank gold ) ) ID#8350:
Copyright � 2000 permabear/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
It is NOT an issue of how much gold they have left, they'd never sell it all as their power would disappear
completely. The real issue is how much gold can they realistically depend on having after they have stopped
leasing and have recovered all the leased gold that can realistically be recovered. At that point we will see how
strong Western money is.

Make no mistake about this, if the Japanese come up with the lions share of the gold after the dust settles, we will
deal with Japan and obtain most of our commercial loans from them in the post depression period. The Japanese
will have their own version of Brenton Woods and Japanese Monetary domination will be a fact. If China comes
up with the gold--we will answer to China. Economic and political freedom are NOT independant of one another.
It is literally true that he who owns the gold makes the rules. Our political system will totally jump or dance to the
banker who holds the monetary cards when the time is right. History is full of such examples of political leaders
doing the bidding of behind the scenes bankers. The Rothchild history demonstrates this beyond the shadow of a
doubt. The game of monetary musical chairs is about to come to an end and Western Bankers may have bit off
more than they can chew. When the music stops---you better have some REAL wealth because your nation state
may NOT have planned ahead.

SteveH

(05/26/2001; 11:49:47 MDT - Msg ID: 54693)

Dabchic (for HBM)

http://www.sharelynx.net/Markets/Charts/Dabchick.htmeom

JMB

(05/26/2001; 11:57:25 MDT - Msg ID: 54694)

GALEARIS

Sir AUSPEC: After reading GALEARIS...I rest my case.
Sir GALEARIS: Your parenthetical statement regarding "disinformation" is spot on, imo. ALL government agents are masters of disinformation, especially the CIA. Business people do it too. It's all part of the game.

auspec

(05/26/2001; 12:29:30 MDT - Msg ID: 54695)

JMB

May I Approach The Bench Your Honor?JMB, glad I can keep you entertained to some degree. Unfortunately, Murphy's e-mail regarding George has been lost and is irretrievable. I would have loved to read it because am not much of a fan of self promotion either.
As I read the sentence {your lunch meat}-- "One of GATA's supporters, Bob Chapman, who writes the International Forecaster, obtained a copy of Greenspan's secret instructions to the banks and broadcast it over the internet. This was Wednesday a week ago and gold was only $268. We have seen his e-mail."
Now the words 'his e-mail' refers to Bob Chapman's e-mail in relationship to 'Greenspan's secret instructions'. Not Greenspan's e-mail. Greenspan is quite unlikely e-mailing this stuff around, correctamundo. Was Chapman somehow able to get ahold of AG's instructions? Impossible?
As your opinion of Chapman and George that "..they'll say anything , true or false, to gain an audience."-- Respectfully disagree, pure spam, imho. I have read a lot of Chapman and greatly appreciate his wisdom and insight. They may or may not be correct on this one, but they're not just out to make a buck, again imo. Do they make a living by expressing their honest beliefs, right or wrong? Another story altogether. I doubt this Forum or much else will crumble because you and I disagree and we have a hung jury here!
Case appealed to a higher court.
Respectfully
auspec

JMB

(05/26/2001; 13:20:38 MDT - Msg ID: 54696)

AUSPEC

Mr. George claims that Mr. Chapman received a copy of Greenspan's secret instructions. Again I say most vociferously... BALONEY, and I will add POPPYCOCK as well. Mr. Chapman will never, ever, attempt to substantiate that claim.

AUSPEC, I have to tell you that I laughed out loud when you announced your appeal. Good one. I have a feeling that we're both going to be thrown out of court before this bull market in gold is over.

auspec

(05/26/2001; 14:39:12 MDT - Msg ID: 54697)

JMB

ClarificationJMB, per your post: "I have a feeling that both of us are going to be thrown out of this court before this bull market is over."
May our court 'scrum' last many years in that case! I'm glad you can laugh over this because neither of us knows for certain that we are absolutely correct {I don't anyway}, but will hopefully find out in the near future. Chapman will have to follow up sooner or later for himself. If Chapman did indeed receive this 'scoop' it is unlikely he will ever be able to divulge his sources. We will always have to largely read between the lines in this gold market. If events unfold so that the end of May is highly significant for the end of gold suppression we will have much of these 'tales' verified. Regardless, it is good to put out the information and have it hashed over for each reader's consideration.
Unless I'm missing something, it is George that mentioned the 100 tons of gold, not Chapman. Chapman stated ""...Tony Blair will try to make available, at the upcoming British auction, additional gold which will go to banks designated by Greenspan." This simply sounds like a general 'workout' not specifically putting 100 tons in a specific market.
It is George that states "..the harrassed Fed Chief hastily arranged for the Bank of England to lend 100 tons of gold to help his friends at the bullion banks. This they dumped on the market and the rally was temporarily squelched." So it is George that was specific with the 100 ton figure, am I right? I know it doesn't make much difference because you don't buy any of it, but the record should be clear for examination. 100 tons is excessive to squelch a small COMEX rally, but a nice round number to start squaring some books. Maybe some goes here and there? Chapman is a long time gold advocate, one of the very longest in fact. If he's ex-CIA so much the better. One persons information is Another's disinformation. Take your pick and time may or may not tell.
Best to you, thanks for helping me thrash that horse comatose.
auspec

Tree in the Forest

(05/26/2001; 15:12:53 MDT - Msg ID: 54698)

BOE gold

This is just my guess which you can add to everyone elses guesses about what is really happening. There was a rumor (another one!) that lease rates were up because someone had leased (bought?) a very large amount of gold which they are preparing to dump on the market. My take: The BOE may have taken the last bit of their auction gold, 100 tonnes, and sold it to their "friends" and a small amount was used to suppress the rally. Now the bullion banks will take the rest of it and sell it through the market to each other to drive the price down and to cover their positions. They get maximum utilization out of every ounce. They are very good at manipulation. They've had a lot of practice. The game isn't quite over yet. But one thing is not a rumor. The commercials are heavily short gold. They expect it to go down and they are almost never wrong.

auspec

(05/26/2001; 15:14:50 MDT - Msg ID: 54699)

JCTex

The TrainNice handle, Sir. I have a brother with similar initials, but he's from basically, all over. Welcome aboard, even though you may have been here longer than I. New poster to me anyway.
Per your post:
"It would seem to me that whether we listen to the "CIA types", or watch the wiggles & squiggles, or read daily mine production records [I, personally use anything I can get], the idea is NOT TO MISS THE TRAIN....particulary this one. Ain't it nice to be able to say that........finally."

I just picked up a few additional tickets for this train, on a Sat no less! MK runs a great operation on schedule and I hear the trains run on time! You are so right about using all the 'tools' as this fascinating market niche requires it. Are you a long time gold advocate?
Gotta go, trains huffing and puffing.

Belgian

(05/26/2001; 15:25:22 MDT - Msg ID: 54700)

Excitment when Auspec appears on the forum...

Indeed, good Knight Auspec, and I love it when you're present.

- wildcat gold mining : have a brother living in Perth Australia. Lots of wild cats crossing the desert, but most of them heavely endebted to buy crates of Foster to forgive and to forget the the shiny didn't want to meet them.
But I must agree there must be some succes stories like the ones hidden in the South American jungles. We have the more rewardable task of putting our gold back into the ground...wheree it belongs. (show me a big smile of full understanding, please)

- I prefer not to elaborate any further on the AU intriges...but am convinced you get the picture correct !
Nothing, repeat nothing, we can do about this. This is the background of my old saying...* they will decide when it is time to...*

- Technical Analysis (TA) : be very carefull not to over-estimate or rely on that technical approach. Strong trends make a mocquery of (momentum) TA. Fibonacci and Elliott Waves (EW) aren't reliable either. We are only able to manage probabilities with different degrees.
TA during the 10 year run for POG (40$ to 850$) was completely worthless. EW specialists still don't agree on their wavecount for the past 30 year pattern of POG. My own amateur count tells me that with the recent break of the 275$ point...the bottom (252$) is in and we have started the uprise. I even have the audacity to consider the past 21 year decline as as a state of the art ABC correction (down) as Wave II on the 850$ ATH Wave I. The projection of a 4 figure POG, is supported by EW-theory and fundamentals as well. This raises the question of "How do we value gold with a price number" ? My answer to that is relatively simple : the private goldholders are deciding on the amount of fiat that represents an ounce. Just organise a Gold Hysteria and you obtain the price you want.!!!!!
I rember the 1980 Goldrun as if it was yesterday. I still dream about all the positive superlatives that the media adressed to Gold. The result of a x 25 was the dotbomb of the eighties. Today we have tonnes more of sound arguments to support and justify the coming POG explosion ! "THEY" will decide when these arguments are allowed to be freely exposed and expressed into the media. The Zelotes vulcano does excists. The controlling Gold-Community is integrated into a much bigger community. Mutual interests...remember !
Gold and oil remain "POLITICAL" tangibles. We often do forget this vital aspect in our (non TA and TA) projections.
I refer to oilproducers again. They are also quite fragmentated and OPEC had periods of weakness and strength.
The same fundamental question on crude is : how (and by who) is its price determined ? TA is applicable in periods of flat to slow trending patterns. But when the oil-forces decide the can and have the intention to change the price-zones...they make it happen. We can only discuss the consequences of these substantial price-changes. IMVHO, the aspect of permanent depreciation of fiat is the leading argument as to how and when these two (gold and oil) are managed by their controllers. We can only guess if enough circumstantial factors are present to make an intended move, succesfull.

Thousands of hedgefunds (off shore or not) have the theoretical possiblity to organise a goldrun. What do you risk by accumulating over 1.000 tonnes of physical gold at a price of under 300$ ? Tell me ! The question is rather...can you get your hands on 1.000 tonnes of physical at that under 300$ ? Otherwise...is there enough gold to...(here he goes again) ? Central banks stand ready to...
We still do not know what kind of money caused the WA-spike in sept. '99 ? Was it an attempt of a new Goldsyndicate or was it the same good old, Gold moving, money that had a false start ? Idem dito for the recent POG run up + the WGC report of the positive 5% increase in goldconsumption and the (ras)Putin hammer. Was the young wolf goldsyndicate frightened again ? Or didn't they respect the timing conveniance of the ruler ?

The accompagning comments of the media with each gold move are so ridicule that I stick to my conclusion that Gold (and oil) is an oligopolistic play by the same oligarchic rulers. So much noise is hiding long planned intentions.

We can't organise a goldrun with 1 million people buying 1 kilo of physical gold on the same day. A pitty, isn't it.
Am I preaching La Revolution hombre ?

auspec

(05/26/2001; 15:52:16 MDT - Msg ID: 54701)

Belgian

Taking LibertiesHello Belgian! I have yet to read your below post, but will do so subsequently. Now that I know the Judge so well, am going to take liberties with a tiny bit bigger snippet from Peter George, the Sensationalist {sorry JMB}:
<<<3. THE PREDICAMENT OF ANGLOGOLD

Anglo had different cause for complaint and it wasn't fear of the Bullion Banks who are in fact their friends. In court papers, GATA's Reg Howe had cited Anglogold and Barrick as having had �material knowledge� of the Bullion Banks alleged price fixing scheme and having �used it to their benefit.� This has been very embarrassing for Anglo. Whether true or not, it was an allegation they had to counter but they faced a problem. A senior director of JP Morgan, Frank Arisman, sits on their Board. Therefore we ask the question. If Morgan was party to the conspiracy to hold down gold, and if they're one of the �counter-parties� that Anglo admits to using when hedging future production, would it not have been reasonable for Arisman to explain to Anglo why hedging was such a sure bet?

It would simply have occurred in the normal course of business, over coffee and liqueurs in the boardroom. Faced with an ongoing US need to support the dollar - in light of continuing trade deficits and huge debts - Anglo would have accepted the �fait accompli� of the international community's need to suppress gold. Within that framework, Anglo would have acted to maximize profits by selling a major portion of production forward. They would also have looked forward to buying up as many ailing producers as possible, as prices slid lower. This they have done, even if their recent acquisition of Ashanti's Geita mine occurred for quite the opposite reason. Ashanti was forced to dispose of Geita because the price went UP when they were short. In summary, as Anglogold's CEO Bobby Godsell stated recently :

"For us hedging has been very profitable."

We are sure it has which is why Reg Howe has to stick with the comments he made in his court papers, and why Anglo will continue to mock GATA's findings in their entirety, in an effort to diminish the credibility of their case where the evidence points to their group's involvement.

What if gold takes off? How can hedged producers compete with those who are receiving full credit for rising prices? Will they be able to retain their staff? Will they be in a position to fund expansion? Will they receive margin calls? Who will want shares with lagging growth prospects? As happened with Ashanti in September 1999, the higher gold goes, the greater the risk of financial implosion for those with hedges.

JP Morgan themselves were recently absorbed by Chase with what appeared to be undue haste. There were rumours at the time of financial difficulties arising from their gold activities. To put it bluntly, it was alleged they had built up a massive short position � one which almost destroyed them when gold took off after the announcement of the Washington Agreement in September �99. As Banks are prone to do, Morgan secretly nursed their hurts for a year before realizing they weren't going to heal. If gold took off permanently they were going to prove fatal. Hope of salvation lay in having a future guarantee of physical metal being supplied in an emergency. This they arranged with the US Treasury's secret Exchange Stabilization Fund. However, if that lifeline were ever cut by a new administration, JP Morgan could still go belly up. They were forced to seek a strong partner. It could even have been the US Treasury who encouraged the move. After initially speaking to Deutsche Bank, they eventually tied with Chase.

In view of recent events and the imminent withdrawal of the Treasury �backstop�, Morgan may yet prove to have been an extremely expensive acquisition for Chase. As the Fed's historic �House Broker�, no fate could be more fitting for Morgan than an ignominious disappearance in the not too distant future. It would be no more than their just deserts for actively participating in a major scheme to defraud investors in gold, and shareholders and workers in the gold mining industry.

We digress from our discussion of Anglogold. In a recent survey of the group's prospects, their chief of �Corporate Affairs�, Steve Lenahan, spelled out their principal strategic objectives. The first was :

"To create a corporate structure which appeals to both the local and international investor market".

The second was :

�To pursue the goal of shareholder value, if necessary at the expense of volume�.

Anglo interpreted this as going big, going global and going for minimum cost per ounce. To finance growth they sold a major portion of production forward and took on debt. Yet in the sort of economic climate where gold prices are expected to accelerate, debt is anathema and hedging poison.

Consistent with this contradictory behaviour, it has to be said that the corporation's attitude to gold mining has historically demonstrated little evidence of a desire to advance the cause of the metal's monetary role. They could have done this by encouraging a return to the Gold Standard and extolling its virtues as MONEY or simply emphasising its role as the world's prime STORE of VALUE. The group's own lack of belief in gold's historic attributes is reflected in the way they run the company. They focus is on promoting consumption of gold for jewellery. Yet to protect markets, jewellers require low gold prices. This is in conflict with producers who want them up and running.

More destructive is Anglo's hedging policy. Far from �enhancing shareholder value�, it actually destroys it. By adding future production to present supplies, hedging depresses the price. Yet Jonathan Best, Anglogold's executive director, finance, has the gall to suggest that:

"The ideal scenario would be a market with fewer producers, (and) lower supply."

They could instantaneously achieve lower supply by reversing their hedging policy. They don't need to go the route of shedding jobs to reach that goal. Failing that, the interests of the industry would �best� be served � no pun intended � by Anglogold themselves being one of those who disappears. Maybe it should rather be Goldfields, with their strong stance against hedging, who gets to take over the rump of a visionless Anglogold.

As the world's biggest producer, Anglo should be setting a different example. Instead, the very act of their hedging exudes doubt about gold's role as a store of value and gives them a marketing policy, which is self-destructive.

As the metal stands on the brink of a new bull market, Anglogold's strategy towards its product and its shareholders needs to be revised � turned on its head even. The problem is, with a debt to equity ratio of 60%, Anglogold cannot afford to undo its hedges. They have used the money to finance an acquisition programme, depressing the price with every deal they make. Even the sale of Elandsrand and Deelkraal to Harmony, forced the latter to hedge production through the purchase of �puts� which required the sale of future gold at current prices.

In a rising gold environment, investors should stay away from Anglogold. Rather switch to Goldfields and Afrikander Lease which have no hedges whatsoever, or Durban Deep, which is rapidly getting rid of them. The �Roodepoort Rocket� as Durban is known to Americans, has massive gearing should the price of gold rise, both because of low present margins but also through having access to millions of tons of marginal reserves which can rapidly be brought on tap should prices rise.

Harmony will be worth looking at AFTER they go ex rights and have money to close the hedges inherited from Randfontein.>>>

I don't believe this to be slander, but it is libel {grinnin}. More later.

auspec

(05/26/2001; 17:04:22 MDT - Msg ID: 54702)

Belgian

Yes, Sir, that gold belongs in the ground and we shall do our part. With a touch of good fortune {hopefully} we won't join the gold too soon.
As to "*they will decide when it is time to...*"; yes, but we can speed them along a bit. They are still mortals whether they think so or not. That is what Bill Murphy says as far as trading according to TA, this market will trade on outright FEAR when it goes, and their Hyster{ia}ectomy fails. Will look fairly parabolic and they must surely know it by now. The band is stretched so tight that gold can fly whether the dollar crumbles or not. But then the dollar....
Your {ras}Putin fooled the people with his mystical powers for a short term. He does seem to have multiple lives, but history tells of his ultimate and soon coming demise.
"...can you get your hands on 1,000 tonnes of physical at that under 300$?" I actually tried but could only come away with 40 coins, maybe next week. Market must be pretty tight! Am told that 5 tonnes cannot be had, but also hear otherwise. Things are tightening up {especially some short sphincters} and this is already interesting. Now as far as your Central Banks stand ready to.... That was then and this is NOW. Central Banks stand ready to........1- Implode. 2- Explain to their respective citizens how they squandered their national treasures. 3- Print money 24-7-365. 4- Fall into the abyss sooner or later.
Why are these goofballs often quoted in light of the truth? Of course because they're HUMANS not Gods. AG spills the beans with his CBs stand ready to........ Edie George runs his mouth about the 'abyss'. Crooks can never stand up under a microscope.
For what it's worth I believe the WA rally was a precursor of what we will see in spades soon. This was pure and simple FEAR and short covering, a fire tailor made to be quenched. A short PANIC.
So who are these folks that "don't respect the timing conveniance of the ruler?" Rats jumping ship? Doubtful as the timing was so well constructed. a precision strike as NY closed. More like heavy players with an agenda of their own. You can be pretty certain that even though we don't know the buyers, they are pretty well known by the MASTERS. Probably in intense negotiations right now. If {ras}Putin can't save the day, who can??
Viva la Revolution {translated- buy gold on revolving credit and then live it up!}

lamprey_65

(05/26/2001; 18:01:06 MDT - Msg ID: 54703)

Gold Weekly

POG up over $20 since early April, the fundamentals are excellent, the technicals are excellent, mining shares continue to be accumulated by institutions (great sign), the economy continues to deteriorate, and we're probably going to get another 1/2 percent cut next month.

Then why all the hand-wringing on many of the gold forums about the failure to maintain above $290 this week?

Most of the move above $275 was short term speculation (short covering & buy stops hit) and not sustainable for a one-week move - yet we're still up an average of over $10 an ounce the past two months and POG/Mining Stock Price ratios continue to improve (began in late November). At just a continued $10 an ounce per month, we'll be at $340 in six months.

I'll take it.

lamprey_65

(05/26/2001; 18:13:31 MDT - Msg ID: 54704)

COT Reports

The problem I have with putting too much credence in COT reports is that in the gold market they can change quickly (several days maximum).

This is one reason why I don't follow L. Kaplan.

Mr Gresham

(05/26/2001; 18:34:46 MDT - Msg ID: 54705)

Belgian, auspec

Awakening groggily from nap to your stimulating discussion (seems most others are enjoying this day elsewhere, as well) and my thoughts of scenarios run to:

The issue is not of money but of power, to rule a society and direct its labors. Central banks (and the favored groups behind them) have held the power of money creation since they seized gold or de-backed their currencies from it. (Curious: Did the European nations SEIZE, or did they just buy it in?) Now they trade on public faith, and keep gold as their Plan B.

They will "re-back" their paper with gold in the degree made necessary by loss of public trust in fiat, and ONLY TO that degree, because it means letting actual physical gold out into other hands under varying circumstances.

And yet they have been forced to let gold out of their hands to back the dollar fiat while Euro fiat came online -- dollar says: "oh, so you want in on my fiat reserve monopoly? Well, you can just prop us both up, while we see how much trust _you_ can get." Our opportunity!

Although it is hard to see the current bank bureaucrats acting so Machiavellian, they will not allow a competitor to set up as the alternative "Bank of A, B, or C", just as the government of France would not allow someone to declare themselves the "Government of Southern France".

Any "gold syndicate" holding enough golden power would constitute something like a free-market(?) or contending rival to a Central Bank in its area of operation. It would threaten to carve out some "new central bank" cachet by its offering of greater gold representation to its contracts than the current CB does. The syndicate will be slapped back -- successfully or no -- from such an attempt, by POG manipulations and supply allocations. The maneuvering for eventual power by powers-behind-the-scenes. Rivals rise, and power struggles occur. War by other means...

We get to be little bystanders, holding some of the tiny tokens of the eventual winner's power; we get to be "little CBs" next to the "New Bank of A, B, or C" and find ourselves to be slightly bigger fish (but quiet ones) in our little ponds.

We won't hear the names, the alliances, the victories and defeats, until the books are written decades hence, if ever...

Mr Gresham

(05/26/2001; 18:50:37 MDT - Msg ID: 54706)

completing the thought with some more random thoughts

In the "The syndicate will be slapped back ..." sentence, I wanted to follow with:

And gold will be allowed to represent renewed monetary value by the CBs only "when WE say it does, and in the manner we wish." Competitors will be disciplined and perhaps invited into the fold on whatever terms necessary? But they first must make a credible bid for power.

Perhaps this time of Euro founding is an opportunity for disruptors to act up, and then be invited to a seat at the table?

Euro cannot help but feel vulnerable in its infancy, when it hopes to grab market share, but still can't seem to "get no respect". Fighting a war on two fronts -- make a non-aggression pact with gold to the East, while it takes on the Dollar to the West? Does gold act as the "Kingmaker" during this time? After?

I wonder if there will be some attempts to market it to Americans, and make an end run around our likely xenophobic bitterness against "those rich Europeans running down our standard of living"?

In all this, assume that institutions like JPM Chase, DeutschBank et al might be "disposable wrappers" for power groups to push their agendae. "The King must have more horses available, should one go down in battle." The most powerful will be wedded completely to none, but have a free hand to join with an eventual winner.

You must stop your stimulating questioning, Sir Belgian (grin) -- perhaps this would all make most sense as a novel, since we live in such "interesting times"?

Netking

(05/26/2001; 18:57:21 MDT - Msg ID: 54707)

Link for 'Pearl Harbor 2001' - Butler

http://www.gloomdoom.com/05-23-01.htmlPearl Harbor 2001 posted in full here recently (URL link now herewith)- (Thanks to Investment Rarities Ltd)

Recent's also worth a look;

SILVER RATIONING
http://www.gloomdoom.com/05-08-01.html

HARD QUESTIONS;
http://www.gloomdoom.com/04-17-01.html

tedw

(05/26/2001; 19:33:42 MDT - Msg ID: 54708)

Central Banks

http://www.usagold.com
A quote for you to ponder:It is from Caroll Quigley, a Harvard professor and mento to Bill Clinton's one of his students.

This network which we may identify as the Round Table Groups,has no aversion to cooperating with Communists or any other group, and frequently does so. I know the operations of this network because I have studied it for 20 years and was permitted for two years , in the early 1960's to examine its papers and secret records. I have no aversion to it or most of its aims and have,for much of my life, been close to it and to many of its insruments.

Their aim is nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. The system was to be controlled in a fuedalistic fashion by the CENTRAL BANKS OF THE WORLD ACTING IN CONCERT, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent private meetings and conferences
-Tragedy and Hope
**********
HMM

Could this explain the manipulation of gold?

auspec

(05/26/2001; 19:34:36 MDT - Msg ID: 54709)

Midas

Quoting Chapman Again"Our sources tell us that the Gold Syndicate, which
is challenging the Gold Cartel, is composed of the
Chinese, Middle Easterners and George Soros. Soros,
who was short until recently, believes Mr. Greenspan's
integrity is in question involving the matter of the manipulation of the gold
price and he also believes Frank Veneroso's gold loan numbers of 10,000 to
16,000
tons. The source of this Intel is extremely reliable,
just as our information of last week was right on
the button. If you remember in the early 1990s Mr.
Soros went against the elitists shorting the British
pound, forcing the pound out of the European Currency
Mechanism downward, which made Mr. Soros billions of
dollars. The game is on and the Cartels enemies are
our friends, like it or not. This addition is
formidable. We are going to win."

Tree in the Forest

(05/26/2001; 19:46:05 MDT - Msg ID: 54710)

Lamprey_65, Belgian, painting the tape

Lamprey_65: Thank you sir for your warning. I never rely on a single indicator. I will keep my eye on the COT to look for reversals.

Belgian: I agree with you completely that you should never trust TA exclusively. I always like to consider what "they" are trying to do. I look forward to your posts Belgian.

Painting the tape: While we are on this topic of how much to trust TA, someone asked about "painting the tape" a week or two ago. This is a ruse by which the manipulators attempt to send false signals to "tape readers", individuals who are using TA (technical analysis) to determine what the market is doing and where it is going. Stock operators like Jesse Livermore were famous for their ability to analyze what the market was doing based on price and volume information that came in on the ticker tape. By painting the tape, "they" hope to trick traders into wrong decisions. An example would be manipulating the indexes to end the session on an uptick, a bullish sign, when they might normally have ended on a downtick. I have seen this done frequently over the last year or so.

Henri

(05/26/2001; 20:36:32 MDT - Msg ID: 54711)

Why didn't we think of it before

"....A 900-metre long metal fence has been erected around Hotel
Stenungsbaden, the meeting venue, to keep intruders away, regional
daily Goteborgs-Posten said, publishing a picture of the fenced-in
hotel."

Hmmm...it could also be used to keep those inside from leaving. Cut the phone lines. Post a guard...end of problem.

Galearis

(05/26/2001; 20:42:53 MDT - Msg ID: 54712)

Friday's action from one who knows....

www.theminingweb.comDoug Pollitt a very, very smart cookie about bullion banking and trading, posted this very recently.

Like Bill Murphy, Doug knows these markets like few others and is an important GATA source in Toronto. He is a class act.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>

By: Doug Pollitt

Posted: 05/25/2001 11:00:00 AM | � Miningweb 1997-2001

The gold market today was rocked by back-to-back announcements of official sector sales. First Russia's President Putin announced his willingness to sign a decree conceivably providing for the sale of gold, as follows: "If in the future and under the appropriate circumstances a bill is presented to me that meets certain criteria, contingent upon the moon being in the seventh house, I might, emphasis on 'might', consider selling a wee fraction of the country's gold reserves to help stricken flood victims."
-
The second item, catching the market completely by surprise, originated from statements made by Aardhaus de Glockenspiel, the Minister of Finance of EU aspirant Ruritania. The text of the release is as follows:

------------------------------------------------------------------------
BRESLAU, May 24, (Royters) Gold was trading lower in London this morning, having been undermined by rumours of further central bank sales. The A.M. fix was $279.40, down $2.30 from Wednesday morning's fix.

"Ruritania is thought to be selling," said one trader. "The thinking is they'll dump their gold to raise funds for the relief effort." The East European country is currently suffering from a severe drought. "It's a good time for a portfolio adjustment," said the trader.

The Minister of Finance for Ruritania, Aardhaus de Glockenspiel, denied the rumour. "We have no intention of selling our gold," he was quoted as saying.

Gold accounts for 16% Ruritania's foreign reserves. "That's way above the region average," said Mark Sontag, Executive Director of Research for Lever Bank Corp. "Nobody would be surprised if they sold a little."

Several countries have sold gold over the last decade, Canada, Argentina and Australia among them. "What is surprising here is that this is a Central European country. These countries have been stubborn in the past when it came to selling," said Sontag. "This could start a chain reaction throughout all of Lower Galicia."

The region currently holds 6.2 tonnes of monetary gold.

Lease rates climbed to 2.3% overnight, the highest they have been in some while. Many explanations were offered. "It's probably central bank selling," said Andrew Smythe of Ellekwed Trust. "Past market behaviour clearly shows lease rates spikes to be associated with official sector activity. I don't see why it should be different this time."

Gold has been in a bear market since 1980 and the strains are beginning to show. Ian Grizzle, portfolio manager for the Stockholm Syndrome Precious Metals Fund, concurred that sentiment is bleak. "We are for the most part in cash right now. There is no point in fighting a trend."

In other markets, silver was up 2 cents to $4.59 and platinum was $613, up $4.20.

((Breslau Newsroom, 413 941 8520, breslau.newsroom@royters.com))
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Doug's comment:
Apparently, a couple of the larger players on the Comex went about the ring waving the Putin news in hand. Everyone panicked. Off ten bucks in a flash. Quite frankly, it is difficult to fathom how these story-spinners have retained their degree of influence. When will it become apparent that the big players talk their position like everyone else?

In other words, they got you. Shaken out, told to go home. We will see a true bull market in gold only when longs are no longer spooked by shadows in the night.

auspec

(05/26/2001; 20:49:04 MDT - Msg ID: 54713)

Galearis

Ruritania?? They have now completely scraped through the bottom of the barrel.

Cavan Man

(05/26/2001; 21:19:52 MDT - Msg ID: 54714)

auspec

When I see you mention "scrum", It conjurs up fond memories (X-Wing Break...CM)

Black Blade

(05/26/2001; 21:20:14 MDT - Msg ID: 54715)

FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD REPORTEDLY CONSIDERING EMERGENCY SESSION

http://www.skolnicksreport.com/fedemergency.html
Goldman Sachs Going Tits Up?

Snippits:

Rumors have apparently been sweeping Wall Street that one of the world's largest, if not THE largest bond and gold trading firm, Goldman Sachs, is possibly going under. This stems reportedly in part from the U.S. Treasury's announcement that it is reducing 30 year Treasury Bond supply. Goldman Sachs reportedly has been heavily speculating in derivatives, that little-understood, highly dangerous tinkering with assets inside of assets inside of and linked to underlying assets. {Remember how Orange County California went bankrupt by their reported speculating with these mysterious manipulations called "derivatives".] Goldman Sachs reportedly has been in the forefront of worldwide efforts to knock down the price of gold and reap huge profits at the expense of workers and stockholders of the gold mining industry.[A South African gold mine went into bankruptcy in 1999 when the "wreck the price of gold" crowd, including the Bank of England, forced gold down to just over 250 dollars per ounce. The average cost of production of gold, by the best, most efficient mines, is about 285 dollars per ounce.]

The derivative gambling, in the trillions of dollars, is a complex formula of tricks, involving gambling on gold and oil and Treasury Bonds, all interwoven like a group of Chinese magic boxes inside of boxes inside of boxes.

When gold shot up from 252 dollars per ounce to 330 dollars per ounce in the fall of 1999, some contended at the time that Goldman Sachs and other gold trading houses were heavily SHORT on gold and could not come up with the gold supply to make good the LONG speculators that reportedly included worldwide financial pirate George Soros. At the time, there was reason to believe that Goldman Sachs would invoke an emergency clause, used when there are storms, wars, and revolutions interfering with complying with contracts, called Force Majeure.

Black Blade: This article is a bit dated as it focused on the POG spike after the WA. Now who do you suspect was behind the push to cap the rising POG this last time around? The post this morning about Dirty Gold and Goldman Sachs is just a small part of the picture perhaps. I would say that a "Leopard doesn't change its spots." BTW, does anyone have an updated listing of the major bankers derivatives status? It might be interesting to see if those positions are being cleared.

Black Blade

(05/26/2001; 21:37:54 MDT - Msg ID: 54716)

PANIC EXPECTED IN THE GOLD MARKET?

http://www.skolnicksreport.com/pingmkts.html
Snippits:

With good reason, some call it the killer yellow metal. And savvy sorts will not have to put their ear to the ground to detect what is about to happen. Like the first atomic bomb, gold can be the destroyer of worlds. And those who understand the history of currencies, understand that if gold goes up, paper money goes down. And hard.

Starting about the 1990s, to promote paper money, private Central Banks worldwide, and bullion banks like Goldman Sachs [who reportedly have fled U.S. jurisdiction to be in London] and British royalty-linked J.P.Morgan, have been attacking the price of gold. Through all kinds of market and news media tricks, through forward sales, derivatives, and such, this anti-gold gang pushed down the price of gold until it was way below the cost of production of the most efficient mines in the world. High-cost gold producers in South Africa, had to lay off thousands and tens of thousands of their workers, including blacks paid a somewhat better wage since aparteid was ended.

Some U.S. mega-banks have reserves of less than three cents on the dollar. Such banks are actually insolvent. The Federal Reserve has been quietly propping up these banks with low interest fake "loans" while allowing these banks to violate regulatory requirements, such as a minimum of three cents on the dollar. These banking cadavers are handled by the Fed morticians prettying up the occupant of a financial casket.

Black Blade: If true, and not speculation or flights of fancy, this could be just more grist for the conspiracy rumor mills. But what the hell, it's a long weekend with plenty of time to relax, read, ponder ideas, and - God Forbid, speculate on what "might" be going on with questionable financial institutions. Did JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs get caught up in their own speculative frenzy and get their tits caught in a wringer? And again, the inference of "institutional Racism" by Goldman Sachs rears its ugly head. These guys seem to pop up whenever "institutional Racism" is a consideration. Hmmm�

(05/26/2001; 21:48:10 MDT - Msg ID: 54717)

Gold 277.50- a good time for US Central Bank to BUY

The recent fall back in the price of gold provides a good
opportunity for the U.S. Treasury to buy. From a previous
post:

U.S. GOLD RESERVES --TOO LOW?
With the price of gold rising there may be little time for
the U.S. Treasury to begin buying gold to augment its gold
reserves at reasonable prices. The national interest requires that the
U.S. treasury maintain gold reserves proportional with U.S. Gross
Domestic Product and the status
of the US Dollar as the leading world currency.
Now is the time to do this while the price of gold is still low. There
is evidence that China wishes to raise its gold
reserves. China who is already constructing a huge manufacturing base,
could then have a substantial gold base upon which to push the Yuan into
a prime world currency.
From a previously posted message, the following is reiterated as it is
still applicable:
To restart the economy on an upward growth cycle again, the money supply
must be increased, interests rates lowered, and tax cuts legislated. In
order that this does not result in significant weakening of the
U.S.Dollar a portion of the budget surplus should be used to increase
U.S.Treasury Gold Reserves.
Boosting U.S. gold reserves would give internal stability to a the
U.S.currency which then can be safely increased in supply with lower
interest and tax rates leading to a resurgence of industrial production
and a restoration of a more favorable trade balance by increased
exports. It would be in the best interest of the United States.
AX

Rockgrabber

(05/26/2001; 21:59:01 MDT - Msg ID: 54718)

ax (take this lightly)

I have ta laugh. The day the US Treasury buys gold, will be the day the sun ceases to raise. I doubt the U.S. treasury is who they claim to be.

auspec

(05/26/2001; 22:00:23 MDT - Msg ID: 54719)

Cavan Man

Hello good Sir! You're going to have to help me out with the "X-Wing Break". No comprendo. Things are HAPPENING!!

Galearis

(05/26/2001; 22:46:24 MDT - Msg ID: 54720)

@ auspec

Ruritania???You know I'm pretty well informed about geography, and I was a little bothered by the fact that I had never heard of Ruritania. And Aardhaus de Glockenspiel, the Minister of Finance of said country sounded, well a little too too "foreign" too to my ears (smile). So I fired up my hasty-check Encarta program and guess what?! Encarta has never heard of Ruritania either! Now I feel much, MUCH better...

(My apologies to this gentleman and his country in advance if he actually exists and is a lurker on USAGOLD.)(grin)

But if you think going after 6 tonnes of gold (or Gambian gold watches)(smile) is hard up, now they apparently make up whole countries with hidden gold reserves for dumping disinformation!

In a kind of stupid way it makes sense, however. If they accused an actual country of such pronouncements there could be an international squeal about it. This way nobody wants to admit (accept me, perhaps) that they have never heard of the country....

Anybody else out there ever heard of this country?

Continuing my premise:

Sometimes negative information like this (commonly termed b.s.) can infer more panic than if they had just stayed mute.
But hey, maybe there is a country out there called Ruritania. It might be just very, very tiny, like Monaco or San Marino, the Vatican, and very, very quiet...(smile).

Anybody??

G. nite
G.

Peter Asher

(05/26/2001; 23:22:34 MDT - Msg ID: 54721)

Galearis, Auspec

Are you guys serious???
Glockenspeil, Stockholm Syndrome, Royters, Lever Bank.? + other insider word puns on names ----It's a spoof!!!
The Stockholm Syndrome (Patty Hearst type of situation) was the best.

tedw

(05/27/2001; 00:43:59 MDT - Msg ID: 54722)

Ruritania

http://www.usagold.com
Wow!! Ruritania selling its gold. How much?

Where is the link to this?View Yesterday's Discussion.

Journeyman

(05/27/2001; 00:48:04 MDT - Msg ID: 54723)

All you ever need to know about Ruritania @Galearis, auspec

http://www.arts.mcgill.ca/programs/polisci/faculty/rexb/ruritania.html
Ah, oh yea! Mises uses Ruritania as examples in some of his economic writing.

Regards, j.

Black Blade

(05/27/2001; 00:59:47 MDT - Msg ID: 54724)

Conch Republic

http://www.keywestparadise.com/republic.htmlThe Conch Republic is a close ally of Ruritania. It is an infiltration point for the eventual Ruritanian Invasion of the US. The goal of course is to lose and gain foreign aid after losing a (very) limited war.

Just waking up

(05/27/2001; 02:36:40 MDT - Msg ID: 54725)

Logical price for gold?

I hate to be a skeleton at the feast, but I can't help wondering if the natural equilibrium price for gold is about $350 per ounce. Let me explain.

We all know that over the last 60 years the dollar has lost about 90% of its purchasing power. 60 years ago the dollar was as "good as gold". In fact, it WAS gold. Back then, gold was $35 per ounce. If our dollars now have only one tenth the purchasing power that they used to have, then it SHOULD take 350 of them to buy an ounce of gold. In other words, gold should be about $350 per ounce. Right?

If not, why not?

I hope someone can shoot down this idea convincingly!

Kind regards,

Bob

SteveH

(05/27/2001; 02:55:44 MDT - Msg ID: 54726)

Gold and Deflation

Is gold a good indicator of inflation or deflation as some are saying? Probably not. Why? Because, it is in the interest of the dollar that between the infrequent gold/dollar adjustments to hold the price of gold constant or lower. As the relationship obviously gets out of whack as it is now, the amount of monetary energy (gold sales) needed to prop the dollar and contain gold becomes greater until the amount of monetary energy required to contain gold/dollar adjustment becomes too burdensome. We are seeing this now. In the thirties gold adjusted from $20 to $30. Not until the 70's, early 80's did gold finally have to adjust. Now it is 2001 and gold/dollar relations is showing great strain. Adjustment is imminent or monetary energy will need to be fed by more sales. When the sales can not be sustained, the adjustment will occur.

The Euro model is simple. It wants to adjust each quarter, to avoid the delayed but painful adjustments we have seen with the dollar.

Somewhere in the last 30-years one or more of our economists either forgot gold was important or deluded themselves into thinking gold could be used as an asset. But what they really did was to release monetary energy into becoming Other Peoples' Gold (OPG). OPG is not the destruction of monetary energy, but the movement or shifting of that energy to other people's hands (OPH). This act has actually acted as a release of monetary energy that has held down the price of gold over the last 30 years, but now an adjustment is needed and it would appear that the dollar has been cheeted some of its energy because OPG is now in OPH. Pressure is on now to release US gold and that seems to be causing a stir at the moment. The English OPG is now in OPH, for the most part. It seems that this dollar/gold adjustment is very unpopular to the parties in power in all sorts of countries and makes them willing or forgetfull how important it is not to let loose of all one's gold and turn it into OPG. But that is what has happened and now monetary energy is moving all over the board and where it ends up, nobody will know but some say that it is further east than one would have expected.

All the shenanigan's surrounding monetary energy is just that. What is important to remember is that monetary energy requires constant maintenance and can not be ignored for 30 years and not cause all sorts of problems. Kinetically speaking.

So, back to the inflation or deflation thing. I don't really know if the adjustment mentioned above is deflationary or inflationary. I guess that would depend on whether one is in the kinetic or the potential phase of the process. I think we are in the potential phase and that once it breaks loose and the adjustment is made, that would be inflationary. Some might argue that we are in a deflationary period right now because no adjustements are yet made to the dollar gold relationship. It sure is taking more monetary energy to keep it in place. Must be a lot of energy holding them together.

BTW, anybody think Another may not be from the mid-east but instead the far east?

Black Blade

(05/27/2001; 03:20:34 MDT - Msg ID: 54727)

CALIFORNIA DARK WISH

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nypost/20010525/cm/california_dark_wish_1.html
Snippits:

President Bush will meet with California Gov. Gray Davis next week, with the Golden State's energy crisis as main topic of discussion. Rather than seeking a way to work together, Davis simply urged price controls - then ratcheted up the rhetoric, blaming high costs on "generators and marketers - almost all of them in the South and many of them in Texas." This is not the best way to help California residents. Besides, Davis should know full well that price controls in the 1970s helped exacerbate that decade's energy crisis. Furthermore, controls on what rates utility companies can charge for electricity contributed to California's present mess in the first place.

Black Blade: A meeting between an Ant and a Grasshopper - and I would like to be a fly on the Wall.

Bush will go down as the Herbert Hoover of our generation as the economy crumbles, and the Kommissar will have to abandon hope of ever being US president as the people's Republik of Kalifornia is plunged into the sweltering dark abyss. Meanwhile gold and silver look like bargains.

Black Blade

(05/27/2001; 03:33:42 MDT - Msg ID: 54728)

US energy chief-Three Mile shouldn't curb nuke power

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010525/n25210202.html
Snippits:

LUSBY, Md. May 25 (Reuters) - Today's nuclear power plants are safe and the accident at Three Mile Island more than twenty years ago should no longer limit nuclear power use in the United States, U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham said on Friday. Abraham made his remarks during a visit to the Culvert Cliffs nuclear power plant in southern Maryland, where he promoted the Bush administration's national energy policy that calls for greater use of nuclear power to generate electricity.

Black Blade: The push for nuclear energy is on. The Administration is giving it the "Full Court Press" as Spencer Abraham and Dick Cheney are the point men. There is a sense of desperation as these people in the know are scared of what lies ahead. As they should be. The energy crisis will likely push the economy over the edge as the energy crises of the past have done. Only this time it is more pervasively ingrained in the economy than a few gas lines at the neighborhood gas stations. Welcome to the Third World."

Artie Farkle

(05/27/2001; 03:37:02 MDT - Msg ID: 54729)

Just waking up

Good point.
Just a couple thoughts:
1. Perhaps if one throws in all the $US in foreign countries, the diluted $US would be much greater.

2. Sixty years ago, the US was in WWII. It had been pumping up for the war. Maybe the POG was out of wack even back then. I think it was: remember, only a few years before, the Gov. took all the gold away.

In any case, I sure hope gold will be valued at much more than $350. : )

Netking

(05/27/2001; 03:53:48 MDT - Msg ID: 54730)

Just Waking Up

Just Waking Up (54725)
Good morning....From 1970 to 1980 gold went from $35 to $850, when gold was 7 times undervalued. This was an increase of a factor of 25 times. The figure you use to base todays Au valuation question was the "incorrect" one(IMO).

So from 1980's $850.00 to now in inflation adjusted terms...or calculate the USD's divided by the US Gold!

The Invisible Hand

(05/27/2001; 04:00:41 MDT - Msg ID: 54731)

gold price-fixing by THE GOVERNMENT

Just waking up (05/27/01; 02:36:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 54725)
Logical price for gold?
I hate to be a skeleton at the feast, but I can't help wondering if the natural equilibrium price for gold is about $350 per ounce. Let me explain.

We all know that over the last 60 years the dollar has lost about 90% of its purchasing power. 60 years ago the dollar was as "good as gold". In fact, it WAS gold. Back then, gold was $35 per ounce. If our dollars now have only one tenth the purchasing power that they used to have, then it SHOULD take 350 of them to buy an ounce of gold. In other words, gold should be about $350 per ounce. Right?

The Invisible Hand's Reply:
Wasn't that price of $ 35 artificially set by the government?
As Doug Casey says: "Antitrust Laws should be abolished". To which I add: "Only the government (Fed, BIS etc.) should be subjected to Antitrust Law, as only government has the force to make (horizontal) price fixing agreements work".

On another subject: Thank You to Journeyman for the URL of Greenspan's recent speech.

The Invisible Hand

(05/27/2001; 06:25:09 MDT - Msg ID: 54732)

And you thought that only Y2K would lead to chaos!

http://www.sunday-times.co.ukFrom the News Review section of today's London Sunday Times:

With the introduction of euro coins and notes, fears about crime and financial chaos are rising across the Channel, writes David Smith

Faites vos jeux: the euro gamble is on

In a little over six months' time, the phoney war will be over. For the first time, the euro will become a reality for the 300m people of "euroland" - the 12 countries that have adopted the single currency.

Although the euro has been in existence since the beginning of January 1999, so far it has only been a virtual currency. On "E-Day", January 1, all this will change.

On New Year's Day, in the biggest exercise of its kind ever, 50 billion coins will come into circulation overnight. They will become legal tender throughout euroland - the 12 members are Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Holland, Portugal and Spain - although they will look slightly different in each country.

Each member, with the exception of Luxembourg, will have its own national symbol on the back of each coin. Ireland, for example, has chosen a harp. The coins themselves, eight in number ranging from 1 cent to 2 euros (just over �1.20), via 2, 5, 10, 20 and 50 cents and 1 euro, have not been without controversy. Under pressure from the health-conscious Swedes and Danes, although neither country is yet in the single currency, they had to be made without nickel.

Alongside the 50 billion coins there will be 14.5 billion notes. Here there will be no national differences. Each note, with denominations of 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200 and 500 euros (already known as the gangsters' note, because it will be worth more than �300), will carry the same design, images of bridges, throughout Europe.

Getting the notes and coins into shops and banks will be a massive, and potentially risky, exercise. Last week President Jacques Chirac of France announced the mobilisation of the police and the army, as well as "the effort of all economic, administrative and social employees" for "the biggest and most significant economic and financial reform in the past 50 years". It being France, security guards, worried about riding shotgun for so much money, are threatening to mark the event by going on strike.

Shoppers, businesses and vending machines will not have long to get used to the new currency. Anybody paying in francs or deutschmarks from January 1 onwards will get their change in euros, a fact that has led to alarm among retailers because it will mean carrying exceptionally large "floats" of cash, which could make them a target for criminals. By February 28, at the latest, national currencies will pass into history, no longer legal tender. Coin collectors are busy snapping up the last of them to be minted.

So far, so straightforward, and the changeover is not without its relevance in Britain. Tony Blair said on Friday that if the case for Britain's entry into the euro is properly made, a sceptical British public - opposed to the euro by two to one - can be turned around.

Gordon Brown's assessment of whether his five tests for entry have been met is likely to be published soon after E-Day. Pro-euro voices within the government believe that when people start visiting Europe and start using the new currency, particularly next summer, opposition will begin to melt away, paving the way for a referendum "yes" vote.

Unfortunately for them, the euro changeover may not be as smooth an affair as they would like. There are predictions that it will be another chaotic chapter in the single currency's short and chequered history. The European central bank in Frankfurt, already under fire for its handling of the currency - which fell again last week - could not easily live down another failure.

A group of organisations representing cash-handling businesses in Europe, such as retailers, tour operators and restaurants, and including the Association for Monetary Union of Europe and the European Chambers of Commerce among its members, warns that the changeover will lead to "confusion and frustration" among consumers.

Most people will not see their first euro notes and coins until they get them in change, the group points out, and will want reassuring, not only that the euros are genuine but that they have not been short-changed. The result, they say, will be queues of frustrated customers, getting the new currency off to a dismal start.

There are other worries. When Britain converted to decimal coinage in 1971, shoppers complained that many prices rose as a result of rounding up. That is guaranteed to happen when the euro comes in, not least because of the awkwardness of the conversions from existing currencies. For example, an item in France currently costing F10 would, on a straight conversion, retail for 1.5244 euros. In practice, it will be rounded up to 1.55 or 1.60.

In Germany, where the euro has given rise to an uncomfortably high inflation rate, touching 4%, and where support for the single currency is less than 50%, a mood of national angst is building up ahead of a changeover that will see marks withdrawn from circulation and pulped to make home insulation or heating blocks. Older Germans have been shown in surveys to be particularly reluctant to abandon the mark. As in other euroland countries, the government has been running a publicity campaign to convince people that there is no point in hanging on to them.

Already, some people have taken this message to heart, and the run-up to E-Day is producing some surprising effects. Illicitly held national currencies, the product of criminal or black economy activity, will become worthless once the euro becomes the sole legal tender of the 12 euroland countries.

The result is a mad scramble, particularly in France where billions in mainly large denomination franc notes is missing from circulation, to offload so-called mattress money. According to officials at the Bank of France, F34 billion (�3 billion) of this under-themattress money has been spent.

Builders, decorators and anybody else who will accept cash with few questions asked are benefiting from this scramble. So, too, are Spanish property developers, thanks to a boom in villa sales.

But the single currency, according to crime experts, is likely to spawn a new wave of illegal activity and give birth to the eurocriminal. There are worries that the new notes, produced at different printing works throughout the European Union (but not in Britain) will be easy to forge, particularly when users are unfamiliar with them. Illegal cross-border cash activity will increase sharply.

How serious a hurdle is the changeover going to be for the euro? Not enough to derail it, but enough to ensure plenty of bad headlines in the early months of next year, and contribute to the currency's woes.

It might also make people think a little harder about the longer-term implications of euro entry. Last week the Tories got their knuckles rapped by the European commission for suggesting that Brussels is publishing an agenda of harmonising taxes.

Last week, too, Stephen Byers, the trade and industry secretary, committed a howler by naming America as an example of a place where a single currency was not accompanied by political union.

But the American example is a good one. The logical outcome of a single currency is a system of centrally set taxes, even a European Treasury, with small local and regional variations.

For the prime minister, apparently determined to start pushing for the euro as soon as he is back in Downing Street for another term, this prospect may be enough to temper his enthusiasm.

The Invisible Hand

(05/27/2001; 06:32:53 MDT - Msg ID: 54733)

ALARM: mainstream press advising how to buy gold!

http://www.sunday-times-co.ukFor the Money section of today's London Sunday Times:

After years in the doldrums gold prices have risen. Is now the time to buy? Report by Sarah Toyne

Investors go for gold to beat shares

Golden opportunity: the price of gold has outpaced shares

GOLD prices rose by 11% last month largely thanks to interest from institutional investors, who are keen to find an antidote to unhealthy equity markets.

The rally in gold is welcome news. Since reaching a peak of more than $800 an ounce in 1981, gold prices have been in the doldrums. But gold prices are highly volatile. After the recent rally, gold fell from $287.50 to $276.50. The fall was sparked by an announcement last week by Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, of his intention to sell gold reserves to help Siberian flood victims.

Graham Birch of Merrill Lynch, an investment bank, is upbeat about long-term prospects for gold prices.

Birch says: "The factors that have held back the market for so long are now less severe. For example, mining production is starting to fall and there is less exploration, which will increase demand and prices."

Current economic conditions could also lead to a renewed interest in gold. Recent interest-rate cuts in Britain and America have not dampened consumer spending dramatically, which could lead to higher inflation. While the value of cash is eroded by high inflation, gold bullion tends to rise in value. It is therefore seen as a hedge against inflation and a safe haven for investors.

The extent of demand for gold was illustrated two weeks ago when the Treasury off-loaded 20 tonnes of government reserves onto the market.

Instead of driving down the cost, prices rallied. On Thursday of that week the price was $271, compared with $284.50 the following Monday - a rise of about 5%.

James Dalby of Bates Investment Services, an independent financial adviser, warns investors to be cautious: "You should only invest in gold as part of a balanced portfolio."

There are various options for investors. You can buy bullion, coins or shares in mining firms.

Small 24-carat gold bars weighing between 5 grams and 100 grams are sold through Gold Investments, a London dealer. Last week, a 5g bar would have cost about �34.

Investing in coins is another option and krugerrands are the most popular. They contain one ounce of gold and cost about �206.

Vat has not been charged on gold since January last year.

The Royal Mint (01443 623456) sells other gold coins including sovereigns and Britannias. Spink & Son (020 7563 4055 or www.spink-online.com), Gold Investments (020 7283 7752) and www.taxfreegold.co.uk sell krugerrands.

If you are buying gold you must consider security. You can buy "unallocated" gold, which is held in trust by a bank. Otherwise, you will have to make your own arrangements. Barclays, for example, charges �10 a quarter to rent a safety deposit box.

Alternatively, you can invest in mining or exploration companies directly or through a unit trust, such as Merrill Lynch's Gold & General fund.

Over the past six months, it has grown by 34.4% and is a top performer in its sector. But over a five-year period the fund is down by 37.8%. A �1,000 investment would now be worth only �622. But if you want to invest in mining shares - you may have missed out. Some experts are now concerned that the good run is coming to an end.

Barclays Stockbrokers, however, recommends Rio Tinto, a mining company, whose shares are up 54% since last October. It not only mines gold but other metals such as coal, copper and aluminium, as well as iron ore. It closed at �14.04 on Friday.

Alex Scott of Barclays Stockbrokers says: "We tend to steer clear of companies that only mine gold and go for broad-based mining companies because they are less risky."

For a copy of the World Gold Council's guide Investing in Gold, call 020 7930 5171 or go to www.gold.org

The Invisible Hand

(05/27/2001; 06:39:30 MDT - Msg ID: 54734)

URL corrected

http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/Oops, error in previous URL, sorry.

Belgian

(05/27/2001; 07:43:27 MDT - Msg ID: 54735)

Thanks for the profound insights...tedw...Gresham...Auspec ...others

This forum is constantly adding "dept" (not debt) to the Gold-Drama (mega-opportunity) ! It all comes down to explaining why this unique metal "GOLD" is so much different than any other commodity. Silver-advocates (Netking) are kindly requested to fit the silver-drama into the Gold play, please. Why did the US sold all his silver reserves ? Position the present price (4,5$) into production cost 6$ (Mexico) and 11$ (US).

- Skolnick:...if gold goes up, paper money goes down...
Fiat is already depreciating for decades when the cancering paperberg is outperforming in volume, the growth in total amount of produced goods and services. Gold's value has to adjust to this reality. Gold doesn't need to signal us the depreciation anomaly. We do know it. But the world economy
can keep on going with this anomaly by letting masses of people produce services and goods at ridiculous prices and serving the enslaving master "Dollar". A Gold revaluation should signal to these (ignorant) masses that the growing imbalance can't serve the good side of capitalistic society.

- British royalty:with both hands into oil (BP) and one foot into the gold bath ? Logic, suggests strong interaction. Unfortunately so very little evidence.

- Average production cost of gold is 285$. AU/Barrick/Harmony/Gold Fields do differ strongly into this 285$ average. Elliott Wave and Fibonacci (mass behaviour) suggested a POG below 200$ (FWIW). But strangely enough, POG was manipulated above that natural target of under 200$.
To me another kind of indication (not evidence) that "mutual interests", talk intensively to each other.
I suspect that the whole of Australian (and Canadian)goldproducers have been left out of the manipulation agreements. They had to survive on their own and serve the hedging purpose (gold flooding) automatically. South Africa (AU) was the choosen allied force.

- Chapman/Soros:intuitively, Yes, Soros is in it ! That's his (adherents) kind of stuff. As simple as that. The precise calculated gamble with maximum chances of succes.

- tedw:...create a world system of financial control in "PRIVATE" hands...
Very, very plausible as further extension of what I'm calling "hyperconcentration". You have a big point here.

-Gresham: ...and gold will be allowed to represent renewed monetary value...
Afraid we are not contributing to a novel, but not too distant from reality. Your post 54705 was Gigantic and I have nothing substantial to add. ...loss of public trust in fiat...Thanks !

-Auspec: taking liberties with Peter George. Outstanding Sir !!!! I've been smiling all afternoon with the stripped King (emperor without clothes). But IMO, AU will not be Ashantisized ! They organise the game.

AU/Harmony/Gold Fields/Barrick, have one thing in common : 20 years of future underground gold in reserves. But with one major difference : ore grade. That makes their different tactics, confusing. At last, these thousands of underground tonnes are taken into consideration on the the past and future of gold. Goldproducers are the decisive force on the most probable hidden agenda for gold. But that's for next week. Tanks to all for (+CPM) for the free education.

-

Rockgrabber

(05/27/2001; 07:54:00 MDT - Msg ID: 54736)

The Iinvisible hand #54732

GGeeezzz, they had better keep the Euro valueless, untill those notes get into circulation. (thanks for the articles)

SteveH

(05/27/2001; 08:27:04 MDT - Msg ID: 54737)

Not to make you read it again...

www.kitco.comrepost:

Date: Sun May 27 2001 10:00
esotericist (A precis of an interesting post on USAGOLD) ID#186102:
Copyright � 2000 esotericist/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
"Is gold a good indicator of inflation or deflation as some are saying? Probably not. Why? Because, it is in the interest of the dollar that between the infrequent gold/dollar adjustments to hold the price of gold constant or lower.

As the relationship obviously gets out of whack as it is now, the amount of monetary energy ( gold sales ) needed to prop the dollar and contain gold becomes greater until the amount of monetary energy required to contain gold/dollar adjustment becomes too burdensome. We are seeing this now.

In the thirties gold adjusted from $20 to $30. Not until the 70's, early 80's did gold finally have to adjust. Now it is 2001 and gold/dollar relations is showing great strain. Adjustment is imminent or monetary energy will need to be fed by more sales. When the sales can not be sustained, the adjustment will occur.

The Euro model is simple. It wants to adjust each quarter, to avoid the delayed but painful adjustments we have seen with the dollar.

Somewhere in the last 30-years one or more of our economists either forgot gold was important or deluded themselves into thinking gold could be used as an asset.

But what they really did was to release monetary energy into becoming Other Peoples' Gold ( OPG ) . OPG is not the destruction of monetary energy, but the movement or shifting of that energy to other people's hands ( OPH ) .

This act has actually acted as a release of monetary energy that has held down the price of gold over the last 30 years, but now an adjustment is needed and it would appear that the dollar has been cheated some of its energy because OPG is now in OPH.

Pressure is on now to release US gold and that seems to be causing a stir at the moment. The English OPG is now in OPH, for the most part. It seems that this dollar/gold adjustment is very unpopular to the parties in power in all sorts of countries and makes them willing or forgetfull how important it is not to let loose of all one's gold and turn it into OPG.

But that is what has happened and now monetary energy is moving all over the board and where it ends up, nobody will know but some say that it is further east than one would have expected.

All the shenanigan's surrounding monetary energy is just that. What is important to remember is that monetary energy requires constant maintenance and can not be ignored for 30 years and not cause all sorts of problems. Kinetically speaking."
*************************************************************

This is very close to the esoteric philosophy POV on the subject....

Namely that Gold/money is "concretised" energy. Which cannot therefore be destroyed.

". The first aspect of will or power expresses itself in this sign as Law, as legislation, legality, justice; the second aspect manifests as the relation between the pairs of opposites ( of which the scales are the symbol ) and upon the physical plane shows itself as Sex; the third aspect demonstrates as concretized energy and this we call Money. It is literally gold and this is the externalized symbol of that which is created by the bringing together of spirit and matter upon the physical plane. The third aspect is, as you know, the creator aspect and the energy which produces the outer tangible plane of manifestation - the form side of life."

"Gold is the symbol of material welfare, and the opposite pole to spirit is matter, therefore in this name we have symbolized the tangible outer form of man, actuated by desire for material possessions and comfort"

When is is taking MORE energy to maintain the undervalued status-quo "price of gold" - in relation to its derivative, paper, GOLD will "reassert" itself. And why attempt to "manage" that natural occurence if it's a foregone conclusion. Like fighting a falling currency, inevitably it's just a waste of taxpayer's "money".

They'll simply let it go!

I predict that the BoE/Blair will do this RIGHT AFTER the upcoming UK election. As a sop to those that think the gold sales are a sneaky join-euro ploy. With a landslide under his belt he'll not need to be subversive about this ( Bad ) idea.

But politically, he'll need some externality excuse to blame it upon, ( perhaps engineering some Mid-East Gold Purchasing aanouncement - UK has close ties to the Arab world ) , and will attempt to time it NOT to hurt the bullion bankers in London.

Not long now.

The Invisible Hand

(05/27/2001; 08:28:36 MDT - Msg ID: 54738)

Civil unrest predicted in case of Labour victory

http://news.bbc.co.uk/vote2001/hi/english/newsid_1352000/1352956.stmAfter UK prime minister Tony Blair recently said that he would consider a Labour landslide victory in next month's elections, a vote for Britain joining the euro
(can't find the BBC URL back)

or at least that if voters elected him, they knew what they were getting on Europe http://news.bbc.co.uk/vote2001/hi/english/newsid_1351000/1351242.stm#top,

shadow chancellor Michael Portillo hints that there could be civil unrest if the UK joined the euro.

Belgian

(05/27/2001; 08:46:41 MDT - Msg ID: 54739)

Just wake up

Bob : * Natural Equilibrum Price * of 350$^/ ounce !?
The price of 35$ was everything but a natural equilibrum price ! It was an ARTIFICIAL price ! From 1971 onwards, responsable citizens judged what was the real price for gold. Make your choice out of the 35$-850$ range ! And then multiply with 10 ! Gold still is a political metal not to be governed by free individuals. The collectivity rules.

It is remarquable (again) that the magic figure of 350$ appears again and appeals so much. In an extensive previous post, I underlined the power of that 350$ target from different TA points of vieuw. This 350$ Cassandra crossing is gaining more and more importance.

Bob can you imagine the difference between these two mountains : aboveground total amount of gold and the ever growing mountain of fiat since 1971. And then ask yourself why the collectivity allowed gold to run free for some time and the individuals were allowed to value it ? Thanks.

Rockgrabber

(05/27/2001; 09:05:31 MDT - Msg ID: 54740)

Invisible Hand #54738

Thanks for that one as well. In that article Cynog Davis said: "I think that entry to the Euro is appropriate as long as the exchange rate is right. Its certainly not right now".

Why does everybody always want to wait untill something is expensive to buy it? Whats wrong with an entry at a bargain level? Whats he saying, if it goes up I want in?

Old Yeller

(05/27/2001; 09:35:51 MDT - Msg ID: 54741)

And now for something completely different...

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topsum&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AOxCrKRYPRXVyb3Bl
Responsible monetary policy.Now there's a novel concept.There is even an admission that money supply and inflation may be related.

Better not tell Greenie and the North American business media.We don't want to alarm anybody before the second half recovery takes hold.

Thanks to Wasatch Bear at the bearforum for the link.

Galearis

(05/27/2001; 10:03:36 MDT - Msg ID: 54742)

@ Journeyman re Ruritania

I just got back from Ruritania....And I am afraid to go outside. My face is so red people are sure to guess I have been away on a vacation.

Who would have known that the CIA would actually lie about so fine a country. If I do say so myself, it is much better even than what is written about it.

G.

auspec

(05/27/2001; 10:29:51 MDT - Msg ID: 54743)

Henri

Per your post;
"Why didn't we think of it before?"
"....A 900-metre long metal fence has been erected around Hotel
Stenungsbaden, the meeting venue, to keep intruders away, regional
daily Goteborgs-Posten said, publishing a picture of the fenced-in
hotel."

"Hmmm...it could also be used to keep those inside from leaving. Cut the phone lines. Post a guard...end of problem."

Comment: Well don, Sir! They would be in the stockade and we could make a syndrome out of it.

Galearis

(05/27/2001; 10:35:28 MDT - Msg ID: 54744)

@Just waking up

Dollar "values" in gold...Welcome.

I have always found it easier to think of purchasing power of dollars declines in these terms:

In 1970 to the present the dollar lost 60% of its purchasing power.

In 1980 to the present the dollar lost 1/2 its purchasing power.

To purchase one ounce of gold in 2001 with 1980 dollars would require 138.75 of them. When gold spiked to $800 (or so) buying an ounce gold at THAT time with 2001 dollars would have required over $1600.

Both our methods work, however. It is just more jarring doing the above. It is also only an exercise given the other systemic shenanigans perpetrated to disguise this decline.
All is just an amusing exercise when faced with the fiscal crisis. Gold as "valued" in dollars (or whatever) will likely be "valued" at some multiple of this last bull high.

Assuming one would be able to buy it or want to sell it, that is....

I bought a top of the line (best of the best at that time) Pioneer amplifier in the late 1960s for a bargain price of $300. I can get similar quality now for about 30% more. And it is a wonder that Pioneer is still in business, yes?

Regards,

G.

auspec

(05/27/2001; 10:53:37 MDT - Msg ID: 54745)

Galearis, Peter Asher, Journeyman

RuritaniaThe national animal of Ruritania is rumored to be the RAT{?} and the bird the Dodo.
But for any doubters of Ruritania's existence please read this official source: "Foreign Relations: The British ties remained strong in Ruritania after independence." There you are, it's the Brits, Royalty, Anglo, and Tony Blair all over again. Look deep enough and you will find wjc, and his slacker semi-wife. Case solved!
Just watch, JBM will call this cabal-breaking news some form of lunchmeat or Poppycock {what the Hell is Poppycock anyway, another Brit secret code?}.

Hats off to someone! Galearis? {Of course this means all out war now!} Ya know the Brits are famous for their humor......

Tree in the Forest

(05/27/2001; 11:02:57 MDT - Msg ID: 54746)

Henri

You must be a "lazy engineer" and you should take that as a compliment. "Lazy engineers" always seek the simplest and easiest solution to any problem. These are usually the best solutions so "lazy engineers" are the best engineers. My hats off to you sir!

Tree in the Forest

(05/27/2001; 11:07:22 MDT - Msg ID: 54747)

Peter Asher

You've never heard of Ruritania?!?!?!? Wow! My great aunt Tillie hails from Ruritania! And I thought the posters here were knowledgable. I shall have to reconsider posting here. ;-)

Mr Gresham

(05/27/2001; 11:10:58 MDT - Msg ID: 54748)

tedw: Ruritanian Gold

Yes, Ruritania is selling its gold, but I heard that Freedonia's CB is buying it all...

"Hail, hail, Freedonia!"

Tree in the Forest

(05/27/2001; 11:29:20 MDT - Msg ID: 54749)

The treasonous, felonious Congress of the US & computer keyboards

Well now the great mystery is solved. Why would a member of the US senate change parties. I heard the news with some curiosity. However it now becomes clear that someone had to be bought off so that the democrats could regain the majority status in the senate. Now patriot Jesse Helms is out as chairman of the foreign relations committee and is replaced by liberal Joseph Biden. As a result, the new senate will be much more friendly to the UN. This is necessary so that when chaos comes to the US, "they" can step in and occupy the US with UN troops, subjugate the US to the NWO and replace our currency with the euro. If justice ever comes to this world, heads will roll.

Some months ago, I found it necessary to replace my computer keyboard. I was amused to find that the new keyboard had a Euro symbol on the "5" key. Of course the dollar symbol is still above the "4" key. It was just yesterday that full cognizance came. No keys for the Yuan, Renmibi, Yen, Franc, Pound etc. Just the Euro symbol. Of course this represents advance planning. The only question is, how many months (years? decades?) in advance was this planned? Are there any true patriots left in this country? I am sick and disgusted.

Galearis

(05/27/2001; 11:57:53 MDT - Msg ID: 54750)

@ Peter Asher, auspec, Mr. Gresham, heck everyone laughing!

Some firm facts for a change on RuritaniaIt is a blatent lie that the dodo bird is that fine nation's national bird. I know for a fact that there are no dodo birds for thousands of miles. In fact they became extinct in Ruritania first.

But I should also point out that there has long been a true affection for gold in that fair country. It has been on the leading edge of many innovations. (The delights of those world famous reciepes for dodo birds was just the beginning.) The latest of these will surely be profoundly influential to the global economy.

Now just where do you think "they" got the idea for E-GOLD?

Yup, you guessed it....

G.

SHIFTY

(05/27/2001; 12:48:37 MDT - Msg ID: 54751)

anyone trading gold tonight ?

Does anyone know who is going to be trading gold tonight and tomorrow?

$hifty

Belgian

(05/27/2001; 13:06:25 MDT - Msg ID: 54752)

Gresham # 54705

You : They will "re-back" their paper with gold in the degree made necessary by loss of public trust in fiat,and only to that degree.

It is that "degree" and "loss of public trust in fiat", that made me think (again).

Was considering the effects of the public's reaction on oil (energy) pricerises in Europ. The public forced the collectivity (state) to compensate, immediately, for the brusk pricerises. Lots of different groups (pensioners/fishermen/truckers/the weak/etc) are energy-subsidized at the present. The state, hands out some relief, taken from the energy windfall tax income. Nobody is adjusting in any way to these (permanent) pricerise of energy. Consumption keeps going. On top of that, recent statistics learn us that wage-mass has increased with 6% and interest rates went down.
Jezus, what an ARTIFICIAL situation ! The collectivity, gives the wrong signals !

I am questioning again the possible signal-force (impact) of a rising POG to the "public". What does it take to make people anxious and mistrust their currency and government ? Saddam...interest rate spike of 1994...stockmarket crash ...LTCM...etc ? Nothing seems to emotionalize them anymore. Their degree of complacency is very high, dispite the not so bright undertone. Is a moderate POG rise possible with unchanged interest rates, in contrast with the 1940-1980 period (2% to 15,5%) ? cfr Japan, almost zero IR and POG (Yen) + 15%. Present POG move 260$ >> 287$ with IR decline. Rather conflicting signals, isn't it ?

But it isn't the public who is moving POG or interest rates ! It is Big money that opposes the management of the collectivity as soon as there are no more profitable alternatives (mostly speculative) for them to be exploited. The public follows and is ripped off.

The public didn't loose its fiat trust with POG at 850$ and interest rates spiking at 16%. Today the public has plenty more reasons to distrust fiat. A kondratieff economic winter (growth contraction) and an enormous revolving, unpayable debtberg. For this reason, I suspect that the signal impact of POG and IR will only have an effect (distrust) (certain degree) with very high numbers for P... G and IR. BTW, I don't understand how GATA is sticking to its figure of 600$ for POG ?

I'm looking for the dramatic event in the following : Debt between 60% (US) and 120% (Japan) of GNP. This (growing)debt is serviced with a 6% IR. GNP will contract ! The Debt proportions will turn more dramatic (K-winter), signaled by (anticipative) with a USTB30yrs rise.
Increasing IR + consequently increasing debt with contracting GNP. Nice coctail . At that moment the collectivity can't maneuver anymore, because of declining tax income and things start to bite into the living standard of the individuals. Defaults and surfacing debt, unemployment and increased velocity in currency depreciation must trigger the public goldrush, already anticipated by the gold insiders. Defaults will be allowed to take place as soon as covering money expansion gets out of proportion with economic growth. As soon as more debt money is needed to get things moving. And economic contraction becomes explicitely visible with crashing stockmarkets and increased unemployment. Something has to break here sooner or later.

Netking

(05/27/2001; 13:19:12 MDT - Msg ID: 54753)

@Just Waking Up - POG

Mr Just Waking Up, another answer for you from Mr Morgan regards Netking;
-----------------------------------------------------------
"...as you know I am a silver analyst, but I am also an economist. During the last great inflation in this country, most analysts looked at the Money Supply as the number one indicator of economic life. People were very aware that the classic definition of inflation is simply " an increase in the money supply." There is a classic and elegant way to predict the price of gold using two things. First the M1 money supply, and secondly, the amount of gold available. Right now M1 ( which consists of cash and checking account- type money), what I refer to as " near cash," or is money that can be spent on a moment's notice, is around $ 660 billion dollars. The Treasury reports that there is approximately 265 million ounces of US gold. So simply divide 660B/256M and the dollar price of gold is about $2500. Now before you call me a kook, I would like to point out that Forbes Magazine published an article recently called " Gold at $2500 per ounce." So you see, it is not a number that is so out of reach as far as Forbes is concerned."

Warren

(05/27/2001; 13:32:13 MDT - Msg ID: 54754)

test

testtest

Galearis

(05/27/2001; 13:41:47 MDT - Msg ID: 54755)

@ Belgium on $600 gold

You're probably right about future pogThis was a nice read. Congrats.

I do not have much to add (or say) about your words except to make some speculation about GATA and its positioning on the future POG. Bill Murphy keeps harping on this figure I believe because he believes in the veracity of some statements from the mentors (movers and shakers) of the ECB. The $600 figure is, as well as being an inflation/currency neutral figure, a quote from Mundele (sp?). It is this persons view (hope, wish, spin, whatever) that Mr. Murphy holds to when he suggests gold's future price. It is also a quote that would seem completely unqualified in a transient currency world, a world that "value" and "worth" are terms that themselves would have some semantic problems associated with them when applied to currencies, a world that is murky, unforseeable, and fundamentally the most unstable in modern times.

It is also quite probable that the $600 figure (as good probably as $10,000) is what the ECB would LIKE (?)the POG to be. That it would get to this "price" (not to be confused with "worth") I have little doubt. Perhaps that this is the "figure" (in USD?!) that it will settle out at may be only a wished for expectation, but the figure could also be "spin" - to reduce expectations - or to induce an early sell-off of investment physical gold assets. I am quite sure under these circumstances that as a public statement it is immediately questionable and very likely spin. The ECB is NOT a lover of gold and it never will be.

All I can say for sure is that I will not be selling at $600.

I remember well when the $600 figure first surfaced from GATA. I though it was a typo. I thought GATA had misquoted and emailed Mr. Murphy about it. He verified the figure.

I think it might be time for Bill to offer the world some more thoughts on this. We will undoubtably be entering a hyperinflation period for the dollar world and a lot of the $600 price would reflect this environment. It seemed to be saying that the gold bull would only just reflect a dollar that was getting smaller, not the serious deficits and market extremes now being rigged to invisibility.

Regards,

G.

JMB

(05/27/2001; 14:22:16 MDT - Msg ID: 54756)

GALEARIS

I couldn't agree with you more that $600 Gold is too low, but when you refer to Bill's comments you must include the word "equilibrium". The FED and the GSE's have really pumped up the balloon since that comment was originally made. $600?.....MUCH higher, imo.

JMB

(05/27/2001; 14:33:32 MDT - Msg ID: 54757)

RURITANIA

.........BALDERDASH!

Black Blade

(05/27/2001; 14:40:06 MDT - Msg ID: 54758)

RE: JMB - Ruritania

Rurutania's primary export is Widgets. God knows we need all the Widgets we can get ;-)

Black Blade

(05/27/2001; 14:42:29 MDT - Msg ID: 54759)

ALL! Alert!!!

The Duchy of Fenwick has announced that they intend to sell all their gold reserves! I fear what will happen to the Gold Markets when this news hits Wall Street on Tuesday.

Mr Gresham

(05/27/2001; 14:47:22 MDT - Msg ID: 54760)

NEWS FLASH!!! :::: WAR !!!

FREEDONIA DECLARES WAR ON RURITANIA!

CANCELED GOLD SALES RUMORED CAUSE OF DECLARATION

TANKS MASS AT SLOBOVIAN BORDER

These two landlocked ancient kingdoms, long known for their love of the shiny yellow metal -- gold -- are now locked in a struggle for their very survivals.

Unfortunately for the plans of their general staffs, they do not share a common border, but must plan a strategic transit of their common neighbor, mile-wide Slobovia. Officials of the narrow Slobovian principality were unavailable for comment.

The Ruritanian economy, highly dependent upon mining revenues from its deep precious metals mines, and Freedonia, known for its pastoral simplicity and love of old comedy films, have long shared a tradition of cultural and commodity exchanges.

But now, Freedonia accuses Ruritania of tunneling under its neighbor, and into its own subterranean veins of gold and other valuable metal resources. This discovery has set back the planned sale of several tonnes of gold brought to the surface in Ruritania...

Mr Gresham

(05/27/2001; 14:50:56 MDT - Msg ID: 54761)

JMB: Balderdash!

No, my friend. King Balderdash was overthrown several years ago. His son, Prince Folderol is now the prime aspirant to the throne, but General Mayhem is thought to be the true power behind the scenes...

auspec

(05/27/2001; 14:51:09 MDT - Msg ID: 54762)

Belgian #54735

Per your post: "Silver-advocates {Netking} are kindly requested to fit the silver-drama into the Gold play."
Short answer-- The silver drama is very similar to gold but much deeper into paper defense. Silver is now a multiple times rarer than gold. Really.
"Why did the US sell all his silver reserves?"
Answer-- Same reason that the US doesn't defend its borders from mass immigration. Same reason the US Constitution is undermined treaty by treaty. THEY have different plans for the US than what used to be.
"Position the present price {of silver} ($4.5} into production cost 6$ {Mexico} and 11$ {US}."
Answer-- Your question also contains the final answer, as it puts the entire picture into focus, nothing else is necessary and would be just so much fluff. The conclusion is inescapable.

Asking other silver advocates to fill in any blanks and/or expound on these short answers for Sir Belgian from the land of premium chocolates.

On ANOTHER subject-- What do those portrayed by R. Chapman as being members of the Gold Syndicate have in common, speaking of Oil, China, and Soros? Obviously they have a common knowledge of dire straits in the gold market as well as a motive, different for all 3, to act at this time. It is hard to believe that it took someone this long to see the imbalance in the gold market. If indeed the reports are true as market timing suggests. Soros is simply an opportunist making his play for more power, he is not to be trusted while he is temporarily aligned with the free gold cause. China is becoming a "player" and simply putting down a high card dealt to them, for maximum effect. Their bluff may have been erroneously called. Oil is gaining maximum benefit for its product and using a touch of 'persuasion' in the process.
Very hard to see these 3 entities acting in harmony with each other at a given time, and even harder over an extended period of time. Simple negotiations could easily satisfy all 3 and dissolve this "Syndicate", putting the gold market back to the powderkeg but no short/lit fuse analogy.

"AU/Harmony/GoldFields/Barrick, have one thing in common: 20 years of future underground gold in reserves".
Yes, this is a huge KEY. AU and GoldFields were nearly one powerful company. Each of these Co's are in a position to expand reserves greatly under current market conditions and under any insider control represent an ace in the hole. Gives the above ground gold holders a bit of leeway in their 'management' of reserves. The CBs are holding/dumping renewable resources because of this 20 year supply.
"Goldproducers are the decisive force on the most probable hidden agenda for gold."
Thats a mind full and it will play out spectacularly! Goldfields snatched away from the free market FN, and then rescued from the predator AU {so far}. Durby as an active supporter for GATA {!}. These 'consolidations' are only going to happen in an artificially depressed market, imho, because so few can stand alone under these conditions. Every opportunity squandered advances the clock in our favor.

I must say Bill Murphy is very conspicuous by his current silence of a couple days, can't wait to hear what is happening in his anti-trust world. Just the simple fact that Chapman's "scoop" was displayed so prominently through LeMetropole suggests much is in the works {as in workout}. June 1 approacheth.

Belgian, as per your advocacy of the multitudes hitting the gold window hard, that of course will be the victory stroke. A lot of momentum is going in that direction as gold mutual funds gain chips as opposed to the constant dwindling of same. Critical mass cannot be to far away, especially as a touch of excitement has been allowed to hit the gold market. In fact the dramatic rally after the NY close recently can be seen as a CLEAR MESSAGE of what could be done in this market. A shot across the bough {sp?}, no? If the Brits put the fire out with an acceleration of gold flow, we will soon find out and the screaming will be heard across the pond. Microscopes are being used in many gold hating countries.

GATA sticks to its $600 position simply because they are trying to be conservative and relying heavily on the number crunching genius of Frank Veneroso. Of course Frank has come out with several different scenarios some with much higher numbers.
Later Friend, thanks for your contributions!

auspec

(05/27/2001; 15:00:37 MDT - Msg ID: 54763)

Rumors

Anyone heard any good rumors lately?

Leigh

(05/27/2001; 15:15:28 MDT - Msg ID: 54764)

Sierra Madre

Dear Sir: I enjoy your posts very much. I look forward to hearing more from you about the Mexican dollarization scheme, and especially about silver. Do you think one of the reasons FOA is so nonchalant about silver is because he feels there's plenty of it in Central and South America? What do you think silver investors can look forward to?

Thank you!

auspec

(05/27/2001; 15:40:03 MDT - Msg ID: 54765)

Message from cb2

cb2 is with us in spirit but without us in computer!
Hello to Lady Leigh!

auspec

(05/27/2001; 15:50:58 MDT - Msg ID: 54766)

Midas

Right On QSnippet:
"It is not an everyday occurrence to get letters from THE WHITE HOUSE. My eyes surely lit up on Saturday when I saw THE WHITE HOUSE envelope. This is the second one from Lawrence Lindsey, economic advisor to The President, to GATA in 3 months. This means that they are taking our allegations very seriously. President Bush's economic advisor has better things to do than to write to me."

"I am convinced that the new Republican Administration is either ending the gold fraud, or tying to figure out how to do so without creating a financial debacle that was handed off to them by the Clinton Administration."

"I found the date on the letter, May 30, to be most peculiar. Could it have anything to do with what Bob Chapman reported that Alan Greenspan gave the bullion dealers to the end of May to clean up their participation in the Clinton Administration rigging of the gold price?"

"Something tells me this letter to GATA is MOST important. It certainly provides cover for the Bush Administration that they are behaving deliberately but with market awareness, for they surely have to know what is coming. However, they really have no choice but to gradually expose the scandal or take the blame themselves down the road. If they do so, the problem will be even bigger as the gold loans grow by 1,000 to 2,000 tonnes a year to meet the natural supply/demand deficit."

"Their timing could not be better if they want to pay back the Democrats for winning over Senator Jeffors and taking control of the U.S. Senate."

Comment: If you havn't got your cheap gold yet you might consider giving MK a call next week. {I didn't tell you all, but I've taken over for Randy and my new handle is auspec {@ The Tower}. Clean up the jokes or I'll scramble your posting numbers!}

Tree in the Forest

(05/27/2001; 16:29:09 MDT - Msg ID: 54767)

auspec

I haven't heard any rumors other than the ones I have already reported. But I was thinking of starting one myself. Not just yet however. A few more weeks when things are really ripe!

(05/27/2001; 16:40:45 MDT - Msg ID: 54768)

Follow Up Auspec/Midas/Right on Q

"I am convinced that the new Republican Administration is either ending
the gold fraud, or tying to figure out how to do so without creating a
financial debacle that was handed off to them bfigure out how to do so
withou ................."

Perhaps this is the answer right here. How would they
be "ending it" Or how could this be done without "creating
a financial debacle"?

How about raising the U.S. Treasury (central bank) gold
reserves substantially without further comment.

As previously posted:

Gold 277.50- a good time for US Central Bank to BUY
The recent fall back in the price of gold provides a good
opportunity for the U.S. Treasury to buy. From a previous
post:
U.S. GOLD RESERVES --TOO LOW?
With the price of gold rising there may be little time for
the U.S. Treasury to begin buying gold to augment its gold
reserves at reasonable prices. The national interest requires that the
U.S. treasury maintain gold reserves proportional with U.S. Gross
Domestic Product and the status
of the US Dollar as the leading world currency.
Now is the time to do this while the price of gold is still low. There
is evidence that China wishes to raise its gold
reserves. China who is already constructing a huge manufacturing base,
could then have a substantial gold base upon which to push the Yuan into
a prime world currency.
From a previously posted message, the following is reiterated as it is
still applicable:
To restart the economy on an upward growth cycle again, the money supply
must be increased, interests rates lowered, and tax cuts legislated. In
order that this does not result in significant weakening of the
U.S.Dollar a portion of the budget surplus should be used to increase
U.S.Treasury Gold Reserves.
Boosting U.S. gold reserves would give internal stability to a the
U.S.currency which then can be safely increased in supply with lower
interest and tax rates leading to a resurgence of industrial production
and a restoration of a more favorable trade balance by increased
exports. It would be in the best interest of the United States.
AX

Netking

(05/27/2001; 17:09:22 MDT - Msg ID: 54769)

Belgian / Auspec

http://www.sharelynx.net/Charts/Silver-Deficit.gifSir Belgian, sorry I missed your #54735 question until picked up by the wise Sir Auspec, kind regards to you both. A few thoughts in summary...

1)The US Govt's silver stocks have nearly ALL been sold at "give away" prices, yes at hundred year lows in inflation adjusted dollars. Never has the US Govt been nearly without a strategic supply of silver. They now are believed to be going on to the open market later this year to purchase for the mint (as previously reported).Many believe the US Govt was tricked into action by the 'Silver Users Association' to try & "delay what will still happen anyway".(aka building sand castles to stop a king spring tide).

2)Leasing(ditto for Au)"Give us your silver for a while, it'll still be yours so you don't need to write out from your books, we'll give you a good return for the use of it which you wouldn't get whilst it's sitting in your vaults, and you'll get it back later, what have you got to loose?!" (Your shirt & your back actually)

3) Naked Short Selling.(ditto for Au) This is where silver is in a league of it's own though. What do we say about what has been the worlds largest naked short selling positions equal roughly to TWO years silver mine production? These short positions (promises to sell silver at pre-agreed prices & time frames)haven't a chance of being met, think about that for a moment. These positions are being kept in place by yet more short selling, and leasing and orchestrated disinformation etc etc.(IMO)

4)The above ground supply of silver has all but been used up, there a massive supply deficit each year which MUST be met from sourcing from unusual places, leasing & "borrowing" from Peter to pay Paul. Stockpile inventories have declined for the 11th year in a row as a result of the production deficit. There is now over 1,000 uses for silver, and the uses are still growing (ask if you want more info on this). It's use as a PM (along with Gold)is unquestioned. It's other industrial uses is where things separate. What has been mined for the last "X thousand years" has been used up,gone...for ever, largely unlike the greater portion of mined gold.

The below ground supply of silver looks much, much better than gold, in terms of quantity. The problem with silver is how long this deficit will take to "fix" in terms of gearing up mining production so that at least supply meets demand(which is increasing all the time). Some believe that this will not be fixed for at least the next three years, others much longer than this.

Sir Belgian my outlook for Gold as a long term investment is unmatched by anything. This NOTHING better than gold long term.

I like what Joseph Miller said recently in his article: Irrational Exuberance In Gold Price.

Veneroso in his conservative analysis (of gold)concludes there is probably 20,000 tons (This number comes from total reported central bank gold of 33,000 minus the 13,000 conservative estimate of these reserves that have been leased into the market place, never to return) of gold remaining in central bank vaults that can be used to make up the yearly shortfall between mine production and total demand (Remember each year we will have about 600 tons of scrap recovered and reused that offset each other). The USGS says there is about 49,000 tons remaining in the earth's crust for recovery by mining operations. When we add these numbers together we come up with a total supply of gold from now to the end of time of just 69,000 tons. From the dawn of civilization only 128,000 tons of gold has been mined. That means we have remaining only about 54 percent as much gold as has been mined throughout all of recorded history.

Now if we divide this remaining gold supply (69,000) by the yearly usage of gold from both mining and central bank sources (4,242) we come up with a figure of 16.3 years. From that time forward, all gold will be held in private hands or will have disappeared in industrial uses and can not or will not be recovered.

Does that shock anyone? It does me!

Go Gold, Go Silver, Go GATA.

Black Blade

(05/27/2001; 17:13:59 MDT - Msg ID: 54770)

Suddenly, Dirty Old Coal Is the Fossil Fuel of the Future

http://www.latimes.com/news/nation/20010527/t000044463.html
Energy: The power crisis--and Bush's plan to deal with it--has lifted the mining lobby and the industry it promotes.

Snippit:

WASHINGTON--The National Mining Assn. represents a fuel that many Americans think went out with Charles Dickens. Just last week, a California congressman's aide asked an association lobbyist wide-eyed: "Do we still use coal in this country?" The answer is yes--and lots of it. More than half of America's electricity is coal-fired, but polls show that most Americans don't know it.

Black Blade: That's American public education for you. There's enough coal resource to power the electrical generation of the US for centuries. The energy crisis is getting more attention because the government knows what only a few outsiders suspect. The energy crisis is so pervasive that the economy will crumble with shortages and extremely high costs. There is shear panic as Kommissar Gray Davis will grovel before George Dubya this week and beg for price caps. George Dubya is in no position to accelerate the economic collapse. Either way, hard assets like Gold, silver, real estate, etc. look better from a "Big Picture" perspective.

Peter Asher

(05/27/2001; 17:26:18 MDT - Msg ID: 54771)

The Dogs of War

@ Mr G, Galearis, Tree, Auspec etc.
This escalating threat of war between the hidden resource nations of the world is obviously an organized attempt to save the depressed commodity futures market from absolute extinction.

Mr G's news item refers to Slobovia being only a mile wide, but what is missing in this spin doctoring is that Slobovia runs over a hundred miles north to south and includes the principality of Lower Slobovia.

Now you young folk may not be aware of earlier referrals to that region in the writings of Al Capp via his Little Abner comic strip. And. before you holler "fiction," be aware that many fictions are satires of real events, written that way to avoid the persecution of the writer. For example, Jonathon Swift's Gullivers's Travels is a condemnation of the PTB of the time in England, When he wrote that "Flim-Flam was saved from his fall off the high wire by landing on the kings cushion," he was referring to the Prime Minister who got into some serious trouble but was saved from the executioner by the intervention of the King's mistress, with whom he also shared favors. Hardly the stuff for documentary reporting in those times. Therefore, do not be misled by oppressed truth being brought to light via a comic strip.

Now in this supposedly fictitious land of Lower Slobovia, there is the creature called the �Shmoo,� which proliferates like a rabbit and can be made into any form of organic commodity. If I recall correctly (this �data� has been suppressed for decades), the Shmoo lives to serve mankind and has no objection to being slaughtered.

Well this creature is an American Democrat's dream come true, and should its existence come to light, its export would of course devastate the agricultural markets. Worse than that, if the shiftless masses no longer needed to vote for their political champions because there was unlimited sustenance, millions of folks in national and state capitals would have to learn a trade in order to survive.

Probably due to electricity coming to these nether regions, the existence of the Shmoo is about to be exposed via the Internet. This alleged war over Gold is a cover to invade Slobovia and render the Shmoo extinct. PETA has asked to intervene but that would make the Shmoo a protected species and halt the domestic consumption that has served to prevent the Shmoo wiping out all other species by from over-populating Earth.

This breaking story will surely create extensive discussion as it spreads across the Net, please endevour to keep comments on subject and of a constructive nature -- P.

Black Blade

(05/27/2001; 17:40:16 MDT - Msg ID: 54772)

No Energy = No Food!

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/chronicle/archive/2001/05/27/MN200736.DTLEnergy is inextricably woven into the cost of growing fruits and vegetables; raising cattle, chickens and other livestock; and processing, preserving and packaging food. The huge spikes in the cost of electricity, natural gas and diesel will have a profound effect on those who produce food, and ultimately on the consumers who buy it. Together, agriculture and food processing comprise the second most electricity-intensive industry in California, after manufacturing. They account for 8 percent of the state's peak energy consumption, enough to power 5 million homes. And from the fields to the grocery store, the pennies will keep adding up.

Modern agriculture and food processing are as dependent on man-made energy as on the sun and the rain. It takes electricity to pump water, to cool harvested food and process it. Diesel is needed for tractors and other farm machines. Natural gas is used for drying and cooking. With as many as 260 hours of rolling blackouts predicted for this summer, according to estimates by the North American Electric Reliability Council, temporary shortages of some foods could occur. "The only thing to do is raise retail prices. If you haven't already seen it, you will start seeing it soon across California."

Salinas farmer Massa takes a philosophical view of economic cycles.

"We've gotta be dumb as a stump if we haven't seen it happen before," he said, recalling the oil crisis of the 1970s and the domino effect it had on farming, just like the current energy situation. "Energy costs just permeate everything you touch."

Black Blade: We are constantly reminded by the Wall Street crowd that energy isn't important to the economy anymore. The Common Sense crowd remind us that without energy, we starve to death. I guess when dead, the economy isn't all that important is it? Again, since FOOD and ENERGY are not in the CPI core rate, then all is just Hunky Dory - Right? So fire up the grill, flip a burger, pour on some BBQ sauce, load up on potato salad, and grab a cold one outta the fridge. Could be a long time until the next Memorial Day BBQ.

lamprey_65

(05/27/2001; 17:53:31 MDT - Msg ID: 54773)

Frank Veneroso's Presentation

http://www.gata.org/latest.htmlFor those who missed it, the above link is to Frank Veneroso's presentation...a real eye opener and a MUST READ.

Black Blade

(05/27/2001; 18:06:17 MDT - Msg ID: 54774)

Many fear recurrence of 1979 energy crisis

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/topstory/922114
Snippits:

Gasoline was rationed, long-distance truckers struck, and there was violence on the highways. With almost 6 million unemployed and inflation soaring, there could be no doubt that the United States -- a nation on wheels -- was on its knees. President Carter soberly diagnosed a "crisis of confidence."

"As the 21st century opens, the energy sector is in critical condition," scholars with Rice University's James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy and the Council on Foreign Relations warned recently in calling for a comprehensive national energy policy.

A host of factors -- an accident on the Alaskan pipeline or revolution in an oil-exporting country, for example -- could plunge the nation into energy chaos, the report stated. It concluded, "There is no escaping the fact that we are reaching the beginning of an extensive period of sporadic supply shortages and periodic price hikes in the U.S. and in other parts of the world." Nationwide, gasoline prices have risen not because of actual shortages but because of the threat of shortages. Inventories are 26 percent lower today than they were 20 years ago, and a refinery hasn't been built since 1983. The nation's second-newest refinery was built in Corpus Christi in 1963.

Black Blade: Ah - the good old days. We are headed into an energy crisis of epic proportions. The last major energy crisis in 1979 along with all the attendant problems, gold rose until topping out at $850.00. A little gold now would be advisable. The new energy crisis is likely to be much worse affecting every phase of life as we have become accustomed to know. The solutions will be long term and require a vast restructuring of the energy grid and a material change in life-style. Life is about to get "interesting."

(05/27/2001; 18:10:13 MDT - Msg ID: 54775)

Non Core Inflation Time Bomb

Black Blade is right as to the link between the cost of
energy and the cost of food. Efficient food production is dependent on low energy costs as Black
Blade points out. Ironically , both food and energy are considered " non core " cyclical factors in the PPI/CPI.

What we have then is a time bomb of non core inflation which
is self perpetuating. Energy, itself a factor in the
non core inflation, directly causes according to Black Blades's analysis, food prices to rise. These are the same food prices which are ALSO a factor in non core
inflation.

With some lag, but not too much, CORE INFLATION will begin as the CORE factors in the ppi/cpi are also very dependent on both food and energy, the non core factors.

SHIFTY

(05/27/2001; 18:21:23 MDT - Msg ID: 54776)

Kitco Chart

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.htmlSomeone is bombing gold tonight.

$hifty

SteveH

(05/27/2001; 18:22:29 MDT - Msg ID: 54777)

Intersting snippet

http://www.deepblacklies.co.uk/secret_gold_treaty.htmsnippet:

Expectations that the dollar will ultimately lose the money battle with Europe are plentiful. As a currency that has been debauched with mountainous debt that it cannot now possibly repay, economists are predicting the dollar's fearful collapse. An August report in the Washington Insider by two former high-level economic advisers to the Russian government predicts a collapse of the US economy by the end of this year, with losses of around $10 trillion. They strongly recommend that Russia heed this warning and join forces with Germany. There are reasons to argue that the present spiralling cost of oil is not of OPEC's making, but is instead a desperate last attempt to keep the US economy buoyant amidst these fears. Oil is a dollar-denominated commodity, and it is fair to say that the 1973/74 "Yom Kippur" embargo/crisis was an example where an oil crisis boosted the American economy at a time when it was in considerable jeopardy.

Black Blade

(05/27/2001; 18:31:06 MDT - Msg ID: 54778)

Speaking of Food and Energy...

I now put on my "Hunter-Gatherer" cloak and traverse to the local eatery to devour charred mammal flesh and consume copious amounts of adult beverages. Then again, maybe I'll just club a baby seal for dinner ;-)

RE: ax - the word about the importance of energy in most all that we do, and how intertwined it is with life as we know it, many seem to be unaware or unconcerned. It is best to be fore-armed and prepared. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Galearis

(05/27/2001; 18:48:03 MDT - Msg ID: 54779)

@ Peter Asher

Yes, but the good news for Slobovia ....that initial hostilities forces are expected to be confined to a narrow limited area of the front, and that initial penetration of hostile forces is expected to be contained to no more than a kilometre of Slobovian territory.

A popular and heroic General of the 1'st Slobovian Infantry Division was heard to comment to Royters that his brave soldiers were confident that supply lines of the attacking forces would become over-extended very quickly, and remarked on the folly of his foes opening a campaign on two fronts. He went on to add that: "The Germans tried it in 1942 and look what happened to them!"

G.

R Powell

(05/27/2001; 20:17:33 MDT - Msg ID: 54780)

Veneroso

Lamprey_65 Lamprey, you're a lifesaver. Nothing on T.V. (even with all those channels) worth watching and not much else happening here but Veneroso's article printed out at 19 pages so now I have homework to absorb as best I can.
Many thanks!
Rich

Peter Asher

(05/27/2001; 20:20:24 MDT - Msg ID: 54781)

Galearis

Re " supply lines of the attacking forces would become over-extended very quickly,"

They don't get it, all it takes is for the invaders to acquire one androgynous Shmoo and it will swiftly replicate enough to feed a small Army. This is much bigger then you guys are aware of and requires major intervention. Why do you suppose the PTP put in a military friendly Republican government.

Netking

(05/27/2001; 20:20:36 MDT - Msg ID: 54782)

Megabank racks up $22bn loss

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1350000/1350868.stmJapans 4th largest banking group rings in a $22bloss.

SHIFTY

(05/27/2001; 20:47:33 MDT - Msg ID: 54783)

Periodic Ponzi Update PPU

http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htmNasdaq 2,251.31 + Dow 11005.37 = 13,256.40 divide by 2 = 6,628.20 Ponzi

Down 122.11 from last week.

Thank you Sir RossL for the link.

$hifty

PS: It looks like Goldman Sachs needs some Gold in sacks.
:-)

Hill Billy Mitchell

(05/27/2001; 21:14:14 MDT - Msg ID: 54784)

USAGOLD forum excerpts: All times BMCT (Branson, Mo. Central Time)

Day - 6

Friday, 10/10/1999 01:09:38 BMCT ("SteveH @ # 15052" Dec. gold up 1.7 to...$301.10.

Friday, 10/10/1999 01:48:28 BMCT ("SteveH @ # 15055) "Chapman,
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_99/chapman100299.html , "...That money was used to provide liquidity for world stock and bond markets, particularly the U.S. markets. That source of liquidity is now dead. Next we expect the yen at 103 to be borrowed and sold, the carry-trade and the funds will be used to keep the stock market correction at 15%-20% and 30-year bond yields at 5 3/4% to 6%. That action and with the help of central banks the yen will be moved down to 118 again. We can assure you the Japanese were reamed at the G-7 meeting for acting unilaterally. Unless the yen goes lower, that game will end in a few months and two sources of world financial liquidity will be gone. The third, carry-trade in the Swiss franc is over. The currency should trade down to 1.55 and could go to 1.65, but that's it. Thus, if these three sources of liquidity dry up, the gold carry-trade finished and yen and franc carry-trade limited, then banks will be forced to create liquidity. They'll do this by monetizing debt. That is the Fed buying U.S. Treasury Paper, which is immediately inflationary. Otherwise they'll print money which will show up in inflation in 6-12 months. Gold went to $329 and corrected back to $309. It will consolidate between $300-$320, then by the end of January should be attacking $350 an ounce. The bad news is the stock market will trade between 9200 and 11,306 for 6 to 9 months, then head lower...."

Friday, 10/10/1999 05:07:08 BMCT (714 @ # 15057) "SteveH re: Chapman
Chapman doesn't seem to take insolvent hedge funds into account. Or am I missing something? In 1998, we saw a crisis develop after LTCM was going belly up. The meltdown was averted by an astute Alan Greenspan and Robert Rubin. Since then, the re-established stability has been a fragile one and it was recently jolted by gold's new life. We don't yet know the full consequences of this jump in POG, but it's a pretty safe bet that some big financial houses and hedge funds are deep underwater. Furthermore, what happens to the US dollar hinges on what the Japanese do. If they start bringing their money home, taking it out of US Treasuries, Wall Street and the dollar go down much, much sooner than 6-9 months. And as for the carry trades, they're dead. They leave very nasty burns. Maybe I'm being a pessimist, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Clinton on TV by the end of October, talking to the American people about the deepening economic crisis. I've been wrong plenty of times before, but we haven't seen all the fallout from gold's resurgence."

Friday, 10/10/1999 06:53:06 BMCT (RossL @ # 15065) "Timing the squeeze. The October contract is relatively thinly traded and the shorts _could_ borrow to cover their obligations. It is possible that the day of reckoning could be postponed until the end of December. The Dec contract has 128505 contracts open. What happens if 100000 contracts holders get delivery notices? That is ten million ounces! It hurts my head to think about it. To put that in perspective, Anglogold produces seven million ounces per year. They are the biggest! Of course, this analysis is centered on the COMEX. There are other contracts to consider. Gold leases do not have any specific schedules and a large lease could come due at any time.The end is near for the shorts. There is not much time to accumulate physical.

Friday, 10/10/1999 07:00:13 BMCT (Black Blade @ # 15068) "Horse with no name
Goldspoon, �Horse with no name� sounds like a good enough name, after all a band named America had a hit with the same title. BTW, s&p futures down 5 pts. I don't know what fair value is but looks like a the market open will be down if it holds. Gold is at $303 in London. Off to the races!"

Friday, 10/10/1999 07:48:50 BMCT (apdchief @ # 15077) "Rich Man's Gold
http://www.kitco.com/lease.rate.html Lease Rates for platinum at 27%!!!!! What's going on?"

Friday, 10/10/1999 07:57:16BMCT (elevator guy @ # 15080)@quote.com/livechartscom/ Spot 308! Here spike, good doggy! (Loved that analogy, Goldfly!"

Friday, 10/10/1999 09:30:04 BMCT (onlychild @ # 15086) "Hey MK, What are the chances of getting a "search" function on the forum so we can search for a topic by keyword or poster name? Broncos and Jets, who to bet on........."

Friday, 10/10/1999 10:02:39BMCT (USAGOLD @ # 15088) Today's Gold Market Report: Day Five of the Big Breakout; The Cruellest Month (for equities markets) Begins�MARKET REPORT (10/1/99): Day Five of the Big Breakout....Here comes October --the cruelest month in investment markets -- living up to its reputation....Dow down 75. Bonds getting hammered. Yen, euro very strong. Gold up $7.50 (was up $11.50 earlier) after a strong European market. Merrill Lynch presciently goes out on limb, raises Q4 gold price estimate to $300. Courageous call since gold is already $306 and has been as high as the $320s. Bridge News reports that "NYMEX is currently trying to resolve some of the complaints it has received from customers who were unable to get their gold option orders executed on the COMEX division this week." Funny. We never had the problem when the shorts dominated the market action. Nor did anyone raise the margin requirements on COMEX gold contracts until the small investor deluged the market with buy orders this past week. That might backfire on the exchange since it amounts to a higher capital requirement in order for the shorts to cover. Standard Bank London is calling support in the $290-95 range and overhead resistance at $315 - 30. Gold lease rates down on Russia saying they will offer gold to the lease market. That's it for today, my fellow goldmeisters. Have a good weekend.

Friday, 10/10/1999 11:45:47BMCT (ORO @ # 15096) "Lease Rates, Looks like a short term bottom in gold lease rates is in today. The Platinum lease rates are still through the roof. Once the newly borrowed gold finishes reaching the market, the next tranche from Russia, if it ever gets off the ground, will be absorbed. Then we will see the market go in to the next upswing. The exposure of the BNY deals with Russians probably had to do with the refusal of the Russians to send out the gold to market."

Friday, 10/10/1999 12:09:07BMCT (Phos @ # 15100) "@Marius � gold, The only thing that could tank gold on the weekend, I would think, would be an announcement of a large amount about to hit the market. It cannot be the Europeans. Could the US dishoard onto the market without Ccongressional approval? I don't think there is enough elsewhere to do the trick. Everyone else is buying. Or alternatively, they could announce that the market is closing until....... Don't know the answer to that one. I take it your broker did not divulge any sources?:"

Friday, 10/10/1999 13:25:16BMCT (gidsek @ # 15107) http://www.dawn.com/daily/19991001/ebr7.htm "Gold trading remains suspended
Don't know the import or verity of this one."

Friday, 10/10/1999 16:47:05BMCT (SteveH @ # 15128) "Gold trading halted in India?
http://www.dawn.com/daily/19991001/ebr7.htm ?"

Friday, 10/10/1999 16:58:09BMCT (TownCrier @ # 15130) "After the Close: the GOLDEN VIEW from The Tower�Turning now to gold, the day's price gain of $6.30 beat the $5.80 seen on the December contract. We wonder when this will become standard operating procedure. For now, spot prices were last quoted in NY at $304.00. We'll turn it over to Bridge News for comments on today's futures trading: NY Precious Metals Review: Dec gold up $5.8 after NAPM figures By Melanie Lovatt and Tina Petersen, Bridge News Washington--Oct 1--COMEX Dec gold settled up $5.80 at $305.3 per ounce, boosted by the dip in bonds, stocks and the dollar's continued slide against the yen.

Friday, 10/10/1999 17:39:36BMCT (phaedrus @ # 15134) "Bombshell, Regarding the possibility of suspending trading in the futures markets or limiting ability to take delivery: no way. Not gonna happen. In today's financial climate, that would be like dangling a bloody steak in front of a pack of starving wolves. It would broadcast a message to the world that there was no gold to be found and that the powers that be are desperate. Gold would have to get to $900 an ounce again before they took measures that drastic, because such a move would expose their terror in full�"

Friday, 10/10/1999 21:11:14BMCT (FOA @ # 15148) "Comment�Yes phaedrus, in your world "it ain't going to happen". The failure of paper, that is. But please consider that I move in a different world from you. No, not the high speed "connected" "mover" environment. Rather it's a world attached to a timeline of "ages old" events and "reoccurring human nature". This realm exists today in the minds of a people you will mostly never know. Yet, they hold the very destiny of our modern currency system in their hands. Intelligent, sharp, and filed with "the simple Thoughts", they do very well understand the western differences of common sense. Up vs down, rough vs smooth and most especially "I have" vs "they owes"! �"

Friday, 10/10/1999 21:41:09BMCT (PH in LA @ # 15150) "Is time running out? Or has it already run out? Thanks, FOA, for you fine comment today. Like most here, I marvel at how your predictions are being fulfilled. Recently you said that a move to $300 would bring about the first defaults. You have described what is going on beneath the surface during this pause. It certainly sounds like turmoil and devastation. And this after only a move to �$300, a level that seemed like a floor only a few months ago. Andy Smith goes on record that gold is suddenly money again... after proclaiming that it was a mere commodity for how many years? He now pleads with the Europeans to reconsider their new position in order to avoid dire consequences. What will be happening when spot reaches the $400 area, if the system is threatened with collapse at $300? Most of us remember $400 (and higher) POG. The world funtioned just fine then. The world of gold is "not as before" Another has been telling us for years. Obviously!

You (and Another) have said many times that the other side will fight furiously to preserve their system. And we know that Big Trader/The Writer/Another has tried to show us how close to collapse their system has been since December of 1996. Today Bill Murphy strongly hints that no settlement by delivery will be allowed on the Comex beginning as soon as this Monday. Has the situation deteriorated so far so fast? Do you know anything about this? What effect on the physical market would such a move imply? Would it bring about a final spike downward to give us one last chance to load up at Michael's Company Store?

You recently said that small purchases of street gold might remain available until November 99. Is that timeline running out?

How much time do we really have?

Friday, 10/10/1999 22:18:23BMCT (RossL @ # 15153) "Is time running out? Or has it already run out? PH in LA (10/01/99; 20:41:09MDT - Msg ID:15150) Sez: "Do you know anything about this? What effect on the physical market would such a move imply? Would it bring about a final spike downward to give us one last chance to load up at Michael's Company Store?" I fail to see the logic in a prediciton of a downward spike. Who is going to dump their physical gold right now? Russians? Pakistanis? Buy whatever you can before Monday morning !!!

Friday, 10/10/1999 23:24:27BMCT. (koan @ # 15160) "Kaplan is Bearish. I have more to gain than most with a continuing gold rally; but its hard to argue with Kaplan on gold. He says lease rates have declined from 9 to 4.8% and the shorts have been covered. We are really only $15 above the pre BOE debacle. Gold has been freed, but I think the chances are better than even that Kaplan is right and we will see a correction. My guess would be to $285. I believe if there was a real shortage in gold the world community would right now be bidding it much higher than it is. For those who search for objectivity you must consider Kaplan's statistics. Both gold and silver are running total deficits, but both have overhangs that will be adjusted over the next year or two with some sort of supply/demand equation. Last several of us ( the stranger was one, I believe, I miss his posts) felt gold would find a floor at 250 - we were pretty adamant, for those who remember! Others talked about $200, $100 and even $10. So far those of us who were talking $250 floor while not being very sexy, were correct - it looks like. Just trying to inject a little sobriety."

auspec

(05/27/2001; 21:17:55 MDT - Msg ID: 54785)

Peter Asher

The Dogs of War #54771Man, you have been smokin some really good sh*t!

Tannehill

(05/27/2001; 21:39:11 MDT - Msg ID: 54786)

The LBMA Precious Metals Conference 2001

http://www.lbma.org.uk/events_cover_istanbul.htm
The LBMA Precious Metals Conference 2001

The conference by the industry, for the industry 21 & 22 May 2001 Conrad International Istanbul

Topics covered include:
Frontiers in Mining - Finding new opportunities and overcoming barriers

Marketing - what can and needs to be done to promote jewellery demand?

Consolidation in the bullion banking sector - the implications for users and suppliers of liquidity

The Official Sector - presentations from the BIS, the Banque de France and the Bank of England

E-commerce - the impact on the professional and retail precious metals markets

New industrial uses for gold and silver Reviews of the latest surveys in silver from GFMS and PGMs from Johnson Matthey

What is the potential for fuel cells?

****************************************
How many here got an invitation to this conference, last week? Anyone got any news about this conference?
GATA sure got a lot of press on the internet, saw nothing about these guys, sure would liked to have been a fly on the wall. Let's see, presentations from the BIS, BOE sure...

The real low down on fuel cells, consolidation in the bullion banking sector, right...
*****************************************

Definitions of interest from:

http://www.lbma.org.uk/london_glossary.html

ACCELERATED SUPPLY Gold reaching the market through mine hedging and finance transactions before it is physically produced.

ALLOCATED ACCOUNTS These accounts are opened when a customer requires metal to be physically segregated and needs a detailed list of weights and assays. The owner of the metal is a secured creditor.

AMERICAN STYLE An option which can be exercised at any stage during its life, at or before expiration date.

ARBITRAGE Simultaneous buying and selling of the same asset in different markets in order to capitalise on variations in price between those markets.

BACKWARDATION A market situation where prices for future delivery are lower than the spot price, caused by shortage or tightness of supply.

BANK OF ENGLAND Founded in 1694. �The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street� has been the focal point of gold and silver trading in London for over three centuries and is the present day regulator of the London Bullion Market. It is one of the most active Central Banks in gold and is the gold depository for many of the world's Central Banks.

BLACK GOLD A rare form of gold, the black coloration being due to traces of bismuth.

EUROPEAN STYLE An option which can only be exercised on the expiry date.

TOLA Traditional Indian unit of weight for gold. One tola = 0.375 troy ounces = 11.6638 grams. The most popular sized bar is 10 tola = 3.75 troy ounces. Weights are for 999.9 gold purity.

UNALLOCATED ACCOUNTS An account where specific bars are not set aside and the customer has a general entitlement to the metal. This is the most convenient, cheapest and most commonly used method of holding metal. The holder is an unsecured creditor.

**********************************

That's all from Tannehill

auspec

(05/27/2001; 21:46:52 MDT - Msg ID: 54787)

ALL

ANNIVERSARYWhat a great site, even under the influence of excessive proofs. I have now been participating in this esteemed Forum for 1 whole year now {it seems like eternity} and my goal for the entire year has been to get this place to loosen up a bit. Well, according to today's posts I have totally outdone myself, loose screws abound. Enough already. Talk about going overboard, now have to get the ship arighted and 1 more year will probably not be sufficient. Would hate to see this place in the middle of an extended gold bull market, do they make internet padding? If MK doesn't pull the plug tomorrow he never will.
cb2s computer pulled up lame, and he is in the middle of a major celebration, just days or months ahead of the rest of us. A real pioneer that European! One world rule may not be so bad afterall. Congratulations cb2 for all your unmentionable accomplishments! Hard work and talent meeting its just rewards. Will see you in New Orleans in Fall for a mentionable celebration. Salad, Salud!
HISTORY IN THE MAKING! REPEAT-- HISTORY IN THE MAKING! Where were you when GS bit the big one?? Be ready. Don't doubt yourself for a second. Participate to your fullest extent.
Will be back for tomorrow to see if the "gold discussion" or what is supposed to be the "gold discussion" is still in existence. Until then tell and show all your loved ones that you care, show grattitude to your maker, and be ready for the big banana.
Goodnight to my Cyberfriends, happy anniversary to me.
a

(05/27/2001; 21:54:04 MDT - Msg ID: 54788)

Just Out of AFRICA

latest from Africa:

1. Colin Powell said in Johannesburg Friday 5-25-01 that
the U.S. is "committed..to Africa and its future".
He also said that Africa would have to find its own
way to the future but that the U.S. would "be with it
every step of the way".

2. The African Union was formed on Saturday 5-26-01 in
Addis-Abbaba Ethiopia consisting of 53 member African
nations. It is planned that this Union will eventually
have its own central bank and resemble the European
Union.

Does anyone know what Colin Powell's thoughts on gold are?
In the future it will also be important to know what the
African Union's thinking on gold will be.

Zenidea

(05/27/2001; 23:39:02 MDT - Msg ID: 54789)

Tree in the Forest

Hehe I just couldnt go past your post 54746. (Lazy Engineer)
I couldnt agree more !. Dare I say but, in essence I quietly if the attitude test is passed slot employees through trial
into two groups. Perhaps both hardworking but Lazy smart and Dumb lazy when it comes to survival for a job. A bloke as green as grass without knowledge guided by understanding or experience or wisdom may have more chance than one whom has all the qualifications under the sun. Nature must be the smartest lazy employee whom I have known whom does all things in its simplest practical form. Any mate of his is a mate of mine :).

SHIFTY

(05/27/2001; 23:43:09 MDT - Msg ID: 54790)

auspec

HAPPY ANNIVERSARY
<:-)

$hifty

Netking

(05/27/2001; 23:47:01 MDT - Msg ID: 54791)

The Squeeze

***GOLD***
Is the squeeze coming? The big news this week could come out of the Comex. All eyes will be on the June open interest, which stands at 50,347 contracts with only two trading days left until first notice day on Thursday.
While there are 827,000 ounces of gold in the Comex warehouses, only 367,000 ounces are eligible for delivery. Each June gold contract is 100 ounces, which means there are still more than 5 million ounces of longs that could compete for only 367,000 ounces of gold available for delivery. The June open interest is going to come down sharply in the next two days, but 50,000 contracts is a BIG number for this late into the delivery period, especially since the overall open interest is very small at only 140,722 contracts.

***Silver***
If there is a squeeze coming, throw out all the technical jargon being bandied about. It will be meaningless. In 1994, I think, Phibro was planning a silver squeeze. They had it all figured out. They had tied up much of the available physical silver for delivery and purchased a huge amount of 520 silver calls. Silver expired at around $5 going into the option expiry. When silver closed at $5 the eve of the expiry, the option writers breathed a sigh of relief and were pleased with the money they had made off of Phibro.

Their joy did not last very long. Phibro announced that it was exercising its 520 calls. The next day the price of silver went berserk, way up. The shorts were caught with their pants down and were slaughtered.

Black Blade

(05/27/2001; 23:48:40 MDT - Msg ID: 54792)

Time For a Change

http://www.fadetoblack.com/namegenerator/Yesterday I got into my feminine side. Today I am exploring my African identity thanks to Louie Farakhan. First I need a new name. I was given the name "Shaft." Gee I feel better now.

Gandalf the White

(05/28/2001; 00:14:51 MDT - Msg ID: 54793)

< ; - )

Not so bad, Black Blade, I got the name "Cinque" !!
I think that it smells pretty.
<;-)
View Yesterday's Discussion.

Old Yeller

(05/28/2001; 00:30:52 MDT - Msg ID: 54794)

Coming soon,BOE flip-flop?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/et?ac=000118613908976&rtmo=rQtFSD9X&atmo=rQtFSD9X&pg=/et/01/5/27/vneuro27.html
This article seems to spell it out pretty clearly.Get ready for the big debate.

Anybody got any idea on where the gold reserves stand vis-a-vis euro entry requirements.They must be getting close to the threshold.

Thanks to Scruffy at gold-eagle for the link.

SHIFTY

(05/28/2001; 00:45:15 MDT - Msg ID: 54795)

Sir Shaft and Sir Cinque

Its me Sir Sheckwan. Do you gents think we are off to the races next week?
Any gut feelings ?

$hifty Sheckwan :-)

Black Blade

(05/28/2001; 01:05:57 MDT - Msg ID: 54796)

RE: Shifty - Gold longs throttled on the flimsiest evidence

http://m1.mny.co.za/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256A570053CB40?OpenDocument
Snippit:

"Ruritania is thought to be selling," said one trader. "The thinking is they'll dump their gold to raise funds for the relief effort." The East European country is currently suffering from a severe drought. "It's a good time for a portfolio adjustment," said the trader.

Black Blade (White Devil Slave Master Name) - Shaft (African Name): So-called "Gold Analysts" like Andy Smith of Mitsui and others are likely to prance about waving this news on Tuesday morning and phoning the buffoons in the Gold pits that another CB is selling gold. Don't laugh, these guys are so gullible, and they have the collective intellegence that ranks somewhere north of a toaster. Anything is possible. These guys work or have worked for companies that promoted dot.gones and dot.gone IPO's to an unsuspecting public in one of the most massive speculative manias in years. Think about it, the POG is falling at a time when there is every reason to expect the price to be exploding to the upside (demand outstripping supply, economic recession, rising inflation, energy crisis, bear market, lower corporate earnings, etc.) There is a lot more going on here than meets the eye.

Black Blade

(05/28/2001; 01:08:45 MDT - Msg ID: 54797)

Correction! - Sir Sheckwan (Formerly Sir Shifty)

Sorry about not acknowledging your new African Name! That was "Mighty White of Me." Cheers!

- Black Blade (er...Shaft)

SHIFTY

(05/28/2001; 01:29:23 MDT - Msg ID: 54798)

Black Blade (Shaft)

"It's a good time for a portfolio adjustment,"
Said the spider to the fly !

Off to bed
$hifty Sheckwan :-)

Black Blade

(05/28/2001; 01:41:15 MDT - Msg ID: 54799)

'The USS Liberty': America's Most Shameful Secret

http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig/margolis12.html
Snippit:

In contrast to American outrage over North Korea's assault on the intelligence ship 'Pueblo,' Iraq's mistaken missile strike on the USS 'Stark,' last fall's bombing of the USS 'Cole' in Aden, and the recent US-China air incident, the savaging of 'Liberty' was quickly hushed up by President Lyndon Johnson and Defense Secretary Robert McNamara.

Commander McGonagle was quietly awarded the Medal of Honor for his and his men's heroism � not in the White House, as is usual, but in an obscure ceremony at the Washington Navy Yard. Crew member's graves were inscribed, 'died in the Eastern Mediterranean..' as if they had be killed by disease, rather than hostile action.

Black Blade: Not all the enemies of the US are so easily identifiable. The Japanese weren't the only cowardly types to initiate a sneak attack against the US. Amazingly 2 honorable Israeli pilots who refused to fire on the USS Liberty were sent to prison. They were released after 18 years. Some Allies! We remember those who fought on Memorial Day. Commander McGonagle died in 1999 without public acknowledgement for his heroic efforts and those of the crew of the USS Liberty. We should not forget those who have served this country (US) and especially those who have been abandoned by their own government.

Black Blade

(05/28/2001; 01:47:21 MDT - Msg ID: 54800)

The Official USS Liberty Memorial Site

http://www.ussliberty.org/jim/ussliberty/liberty.htm
During the Six Day War between Israel and the Arab States, the American intelligence ship USS Liberty was attacked for 75 minutes in international waters by Israeli aircraft and motor torpedo boats. Thirty-four men died and 171 were wounded. The attack has been a matter of controversy ever since. Survivors and many key government officials including Secretary of State Dean Rusk and former JCS Chairman Admiral Thomas Moorer say it was no accident. Israel and its supporters insist it was a "tragic case of misidentification" and charge that the survivors are either lying or too emotionally involved to see the truth.

Black Blade: This site has the story with photos and eyewitness testimony. Lest We Forget!

Peter Asher

(05/28/2001; 01:57:39 MDT - Msg ID: 54801)

@ auspec (05/27/01; 21:17:55MT msg#: 54785)

<<<< Peter Asher --The Dogs of War #54771 Man, you have been smokin some really good sh*t! >>>>

Gosh aupec, thanks; --- I think.

Sorry to disappoint you but I had only a brief encounter with inhalants in the 60s and long ago used up my lifetime allotment of intoxicants. As I was only on my third dose of caffeine you will have to attribute what I wrote to the fact that I am always weird. But you knew that!

Netking

(05/28/2001; 02:17:43 MDT - Msg ID: 54802)

Memorial Day thoughts

A couple of pertinent quotes as we reflect on this 'Memorial Day' from Sir Winston Churchill;

"Never has so much been owed to so few by so many"

"Don't ever give up, never, never, NEVER surrender!"

May God richly bless both you and your loved ones.
regards Netking

Belgian

(05/28/2001; 02:47:54 MDT - Msg ID: 54803)

Responses

Netking: Thanks, for the silver-bullits. Unfortunately in chocolat land we pay 21% VAT on it. Gold 0% VAT. And the fact that the previous 1% VAT was abolished jan.'00, probably makes the difference between a commodity for industrial purposes (silver) and gold as being money (and jewelry commodity) !
FWIW - TA on Ag : the downspike formed a nice "Dome" pattern and suggests a substantial rise, once such kind of suppressing dome is broken. POS shows signs of boiling onder that Dome lit.

US and African Continent "rapprochement" (encounters) is worrying me ! Must have become somewhat shizo and think it has something to do with Gold. South Africa, can you help us out of this Gold-Mess and let's organise some (profitable) trade ? Don't like it !
Or is a dollarization of Africa on the program ? Good luck with it.

GATA 600$/ounce : The argumentation on the forum about the reasons for this price target aren't satisfactory.
Why such a tremendous effort on exposing the Gold Drama and putting a meagre dubbling of the present idiotic valuation of Gold ?
This is out of proportion and is casting kind of doubt about certain (delicate) aspects.

Black Blade

(05/28/2001; 03:28:28 MDT - Msg ID: 54804)

Power crisis dims outlook for California

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3OKRW69NC&live=true&tagid=ZZZCWHK1B0C⊂heading=energy%20%26%20utilities
Snippit:

Two-thirds say the electricity situation has dented their confidence in the state government's ability to plan and build for the future. Such a marked and rapid loss of confidence both in the short and long terms, reported by pollsters at the respected Public Policy Institute of California, does not augur well for the next few years. Then, experts say, government must grapple with other long-neglected infrastructural deficiencies or risk chronic problems damaging California's economy. But with the electricity crisis expected to last two years or more, it will not be easy to ignore the effects of infrastructural neglect.

Black Blade: This article makes California look like a cess pool not fit for human habitation. Looks as if they should raise taxes very sharply again to build up infrastructure and to subsidize energy costs for the unfortunate. It would be the liberal thing to do, and "it's for the Chillrun."

Black Blade

(05/28/2001; 03:49:08 MDT - Msg ID: 54805)

Gold is rock solid

http://www.economictimes.com/today/28comm03.htm
Snippit:

The year �01, it appears has commenced well for gold. Neither the worst-ever earthquake in Gujarat nor the drought in parts of Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra has affected demand for the precious yellow metal in the country. The first quarter (January-March) of the current year saw a strong rise in gold demand � which at 243 tonnes was 23 per cent higher than the depressed first quarter of �00. Another significant feature of the quarter was a 26 per cent increase in official imports followed by reduction in customs duty.

Demand was boosted by a buoyant season of marriages and festivals, especially in the south. ``A further boost came from retailers re-stocking after a period of good sales over the last six months,�� said Derrick Machado, regional director of the World Gold Council.

Black Blade: Earth Quakes and drought can't even stop the demand for gold in India. The so-called "analysts" were wrong again as usual (waste of human skin). They had predicted that the drought and earth quake would collapse demand for gold in India. Always a day late and a dollar short with those predictions. I think that professional gold "analysts," witch doctors, astrologers, psychics, chicken entrail readers, and tarot card readers could switch professions at will without any formal training.

SteveH

(05/28/2001; 04:02:32 MDT - Msg ID: 54806)

Article on Gold

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Caroline%20Baum&touch=1&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_bbco&T=markets_fgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=blk&s=AOwlm4xaBRGVhZCBNsnippet:

Bonds were bludgeoned last Tuesday. The TIPS spread blew out. But these folks were on their yellow brick road to nowhere until gold staged a three-day rally late last week.

SteveH

(05/28/2001; 04:07:50 MDT - Msg ID: 54807)

Article on Gold

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Caroline%20Baum&touch=1&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_bbco&T=markets_fgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=blk&s=AOwLSGhPkRnJlZSBN snippet:

The bottom line is that the Fed is ``fueling inflation in a depressed environment,'' Low says. ``We're going to have no growth and inflation.''

(thanks LionsBreath at kitco)

Netking

(05/28/2001; 04:10:41 MDT - Msg ID: 54808)

Belgian

Thanks Sir Belgian(54803), We had been getting July as a possible TA for Ag "impact month", it certainly all seems to coming together with what you & others discern. Butler made the comment the other day (on Kitco)that a very short term drop whilst not 100% likely was possible(up to 30c from memory?). If this happened it would in itself form a launching pad, petrol to the fire in fact & dry up any physical supply quickly. Not to mention a brisk paper trade before ignition.
Don't overdose on that fine chocolat Sir Belgian, especially if it has caffeine in it, just ask Sir Peter Asher #54801.

Black Blade

(05/28/2001; 04:28:36 MDT - Msg ID: 54809)

RE: SteveH - I Read "Stagflation"

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Caroline%20Baum&touch=1&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_bbco&T=markets_fgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=blk&s=AOwLSGhPkRnJlZSBNSteve - I read this as a recipe for "Stagflation," however, this is based on another measure of statistically massaged CPI. More interesting is that even so, they can't hide the inflationary pressures very well.

Free Money Means Banks Will Line Up to Lend: Caroline Baum

Snippit:

Not all measures of inflation were well-behaved last month. The Cleveland Fed's median CPI, which eliminates the outliers each month, continued to deteriorate, rising 0.3 percent in April and 3.5 percent from a year ago. The median CPI has gone straight up, without pausing for a breath, since bottoming at 2.2 percent in December 1999. Stephen Cecchetti, former research director at the New York Fed and one of the creators of the median CPI, told Dow Jones he saw ``warning signs that inflation is continuing to increase.''

Black Blade: Even with the smoothing out the data with more statistical massage, in this case eliminating so-called anomalies, it is apparent that it is becoming increasingly difficult to cover up the rising gauges of inflation. This article looks like a recipe for "Stagflation" perhaps.

The Invisible Hand

(05/28/2001; 06:25:14 MDT - Msg ID: 54810)

Missing URL in my post of yesterday

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/et?ac=000118613908976&rtmo=rQtFSD9X&atmo=rQtFSD9X&pg=/et/01/5/27/vneuro27.htmlThe Invisible Hand (5/27/01; 08:28:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 54738)
Civil unrest predicted in case of Labour victory

After UK prime minister Tony Blair recently said that he would consider a Labour landslide victory in next month's elections, a vote for Britain joining the euro
(URL which I couldn't find yesterday appears in heading of this message)

or at least that if voters elected him, they knew what they were getting on Europe (http://news.bbc.co.uk/vote2001/hi/english/newsid_1351000/1351242.stm#top),

shadow chancellor Michael Portillo hints that there could be civil unrest if the UK joined the euro.
(http://news.bbc.co.uk/vote2001/hi/english/newsid_1352000/1352956.stm)

The Invisible Hand

(05/28/2001; 08:51:21 MDT - Msg ID: 54811)

Why haven't Howe nor GATA disclosed the date?

In the Howe v. BIS et al. case, all arguments have been exchanged between the parties.
Except if I'm mistaken, we haven't yet been informed of the date of the court appearance. Why?
Are we perhaps waiting for the arguments of the public prosecutor?

SHIFTY

(05/28/2001; 08:55:41 MDT - Msg ID: 54812)

Black Blade

Dont you ever sleep?

$hifty

PH in LA

(05/28/2001; 09:03:45 MDT - Msg ID: 54813)

Levity or Hyperbole?

Dear Mr. Black Blade,

Only reluctantly do I set out to comment on your apparent obsessive preconceived ideas about California. I 'm sure you already made up your mind long ago. So who am I to to try to confuse with another point of view? After all, I only live here. And I normally don't waste my time reading publications such as FT.com (as you apparently do.)

You write: "This article makes California look like a cess pool not fit for human habitation." (usagold.com msg#: 54804)

Now, I, personally, am perfectly willing to put comments such as these into the column marked "hyperbole" and continue to ignore them. By expressing yourself in such terms, you undermine your own credibility, but that is certainly your right. I do not take any issue with that at all.

However, when you post ULRs to other publications along with the implicit recommendation that we consider them, your attitude rises to the level of deserving comment.

In the article from FT.com, cited in your message #54804, we read: "In LA, every driver wastes 56 hours a year in (traffic) jams - at an estimated annual cost of $15bn." Now, as anyone familar with this forum knows, PH in LA resides in Los Angeles, where he is a licensed driver and drives many, many hours per week. Let me assure you that he does not waste any average of one hour per week sitting in traffic jams. Nor would it cost him any portion of $15bn even if he did. If FT.com (Financial Times.com) knows as little about financial matters as they do about driving in LA, their publication should be renamed and should hardly be used to conclude that "California looks like a cess pool not fit for human habitation." Furthermore, if "California has nine of the 10 least affordable housing regions in the nation" (according to your cited FT.com article) it is hard to reconcile your comment that "California looks like a cess pool not fit for human habitation".

Levity on this forum is one thing. (hat tip to Auspec) But your charactarizations of California have lost touch with reality. Perhaps you would prefer to file them under the category of "levity" to preserve whatever credibility might be left to them over there in the "hyperbole" category.

Rockgrabber

(05/28/2001; 09:25:37 MDT - Msg ID: 54814)

PH in LA

I live in Orange County right below you. For some strange reason I enjoy BlakeBlades analisis of our sittuation, thats coming to light. You have to admit, when you drive on the road, and talking to folks as well (who have been brought up in our microclimate) that we deserve this. Everybit of it. We drive SUVs, we live in the largest houses our money can buy, we buy everything thats immediatly affordable. We need a reality check. I especially enjoy the liking to grasshoppers. Grasshoppers eat themselfes to death, while mr. ant works day in at soring, saving much of what he can. We could have been investing more capital into our electricity system years ago. But not with a grasshopper mentality. This is the tip of the iceburg. Water?? Think that will be a problem soon to come? How about food? Food.. Now there is an undercapitalized area.

"Energy Crisis" seems like a premature word however. It looks like a floating trial baloon. The words "energy crises" together make a prediction to come. Take anything you find offensive lightly, please.

Mr Gresham

(05/28/2001; 09:28:04 MDT - Msg ID: 54815)

Peter

I agree -- whatever intake you've enjoyed has certainly led to some fine output.

I'll be away a couple of weeks, so naturally I expect lots of excitement here to pass me by. News from the front must reach me by carrier pigeon, I fear.

Maybe this year you'll have to invite the ECB guys to your backyard campout? That oughta do the job, huh?

Mr Gresham

(05/28/2001; 09:44:22 MDT - Msg ID: 54816)

California

Demographers have long called California the bellwether for the rest of the nation, and Black Blade's summaries I'm sure are meant to apply to a large proportion of USAmericans in all of the states as the most spoiled bunch of brats that have ever walked the earth. Heading for a BIG reality check.

When you ask yourself "What do these people actually DO or MAKE to earn their bread and butter, vs. the majority of people in the world who struggle so hard for so little?" you just know there's got to be a re-balancing ahead.

Then I ask myself, "What do _I_ actually know how to do that's worth somebody paying me my survival ration during hard times?"

I've been welcomed, fed and sheltered by some of the poorest people in the world, and they are my best travel memories. What we can still learn from them is priceless.

The study of humility could be a national goal for the rest of this century, but you'll never hear it out of any political official's mouth, will you? It's up to us individually, as things of true value always are...

Orville Goldenbacher

(05/28/2001; 10:08:10 MDT - Msg ID: 54817)

Mr. Gresham, California

http://www.icdc.com/~neubauer/red.htmSir Mr. Gresham, you are quite right, we as Americans have been very spoiled, not just Californians. California is a quite beautiful part of these United States. I love the ocean and the great redwood trees in the mountains. There is good and bad everywhere and pointing fingers is pointless. We are all more guilty, than we are innocent, i suspect. A lot of people resent "Kalifornians" more out of jealousy, imho, than anything else. Sure "they" have some quirky politicians, but don't we all?

Go Gold, Go GATA, Go Humboldt!

GOOG

Camel

(05/28/2001; 10:38:35 MDT - Msg ID: 54818)

PH in LA

I couldn't agree more with PH in LA .All this ant and grasshopper BS is the classic tool of a demagogue'spewing out hatred, trying to turn one group against another. Besides , as this thing unfolds over the next few years ant and grasshoopper will suffer alike , I guarentee it . No one will be exempt. Certainly not the ants in their big pick-ups with beer drooling out of their mouths. Whats so great about an ant any way .They are the most regimented of all creatures. They just do what they are told, never question anything, never think for themselves, never even look up from their jobs. Thats no way to have to live.

Horatio

(05/28/2001; 11:04:50 MDT - Msg ID: 54819)

"ERNIE" Thanks to Colin Seymour

Ernie... The Fastest GoldBug in the West

You could hear the hoofbeats pound as they raced across the ground
And the clatter of the wheels as they spun round and round
As he galloped into Market Street, his gold stacked in a chest
His name was Ernie and he owned the smartest gold shop in the West.

Now Ernie loved a widow, a lady known as Sue
She lived all alone in Lily Lane at number twenty-two
They said she was too good for him, she was haughty, proud and chic
But Ernie took his gold coins there three times every week
They called him Ernie ("Ernie!") and he owned the smartest gold shop in the West.

She said she'd like to bathe in Maples, he said, "All right, sweetheart."
And when he finished work one night he loaded up the cart
He asked if she wanted "four nines pure", 'cos "four nines pure" is best
She said, "Ernie I'll be happy if they come up to me chest."
That tickled old Ernie ("Ernie!") and he owned the smartest gold shop in the West.

Now Ernie had a rival, an evil-looking man
Called Two-Ton Ted from Teddington and he drove the banker's van
He tempted her with his forward sales and his tasty short positions
And when she seen the size of his derivatives she lost all her inhibitions
She came over funny at his paper money and he said, "Now if you treat me right
You'll have a hot Rolls in the driveway, and caviar every night".
He knew once she sampled his revolving credit he'd have his wicked way
And all Ernie had to offer was an ounce of gold a day
Poor Ernie ("Ernie!") and he owned the smartest gold shop in the West.

One lunchtime Ted saw Ernie's horse and cart outside her door
It drove him mad to find it was still there at half past four!
And as he leapt down from his van hot blood through his veins did course
And he went across to Ernie's cart and he didn't half kick his horse
Whose name was Trigger ("Trigger!") and he pulled the fastest goldcart in the West.

Now Ernie rushed out into the street, his gold-leaf in his hand
He said, "If you wanna marry Susie you fight for her like a man!"
"Oh why don't we play cards for her?" he sneeringly replied
"And just to make it interesting we'll have a monkey on the side."

Now Ernie dragged him from his van and beneath the blazing sun
They stood there face to face, and Ted went short a ton
But Ernie was too quick, things didn't go the way Ted planned
And a Washington Agreement sent its price up another band.

Now Sue she ran between them, and tried to keep them apart
But Ernie pushed her aside and a Dutch Auction caught him underneath his chart
And as he looked up in pained surprise, the overwhelming thrust
Of a coupon pass caught him in the eye and Ernie bit the dust.
Poor Ernie ("Ernie!") and he owned the smartest gold shop in the West.

Ernie was only fifty-two, he didn't want to die
And now he's gone to take delivery in that gold shop in the sky
Where the customers are angels and plunging POGs are banned
And a goldbug's life is full of fun in that gold and silver land
But a woman's needs are many-fold, and Sue she married Ted.
And strange things happened on their wedding night as they lay in their bed.
Was that the trees a-rustling, or the hinges of the door?
Or Ernie's ghostly sovereigns a-rattling in their drawer?
They won't forget Ernie ("Ernie!"), as he owned the smartest gold shop in the West!

FOR ENTERTAINMENT ONLY - NOT FOR INVESTMENT ADVICE!

Dedicated to TV comedian Benny Hill (1924 - 1992), whose only number 1 hit record, "ERNIE (The Fastest Milkman
in the West)" was number 1 for 4 weeks in December, 1971.

Original Lyrics
http://www.anneray.co.uk/albert/bennyhill.htm
http://ferret.lmh.ox.ac.uk/~roney/kidsongs.html

Biography
http://www.cormagazine.co.uk/biogs/index.shtml

May 27, 2001

US_Army(RET)

(05/28/2001; 11:09:37 MDT - Msg ID: 54820)

Lest we forget...Black Blade

http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig/margolis12.htmlDear Black Blade,

Thank you very much for the gut-wrenching reminder of the "USS Liberty" incident.

Another glaring example of our so-called "elected" leaders continuing support for murderous, dictatorial and fascist regimes around the world, merely for political hedging and personal gain.

One's only hope is that justice will eventually come to the guilty, both to our own politicians and our callus and immoral offending so called "Allies." ---Signs are clear that this "justice" is coming to us all soon.

Our days of walking over the rights of the week and oppressed are soon to end. The ability to murder, pillage and plunder, using mercenary surrogates and henchmen, such as the Zionist govt. of Israel, by use of a overvalued fiat currency and in the so-called name of democracy will soon end with the $ collapse.

The true nature of our weak-willed, greedy and ignorant society will be clearly exposed for all in the world to see.

Please excuse the rant, but we as a family have first hand experience with the mayhem and murder this US sponsored terriorism is foisting upon the world.

Owning gold is the path to freedom. --- It is also the path to eventual "Justice." (for all)

From the immortal words of Talbot Mundy�.

"Injustice and ignorance go hand-in-hand invariably, and their result is a degenerating and self-propagating state of selfishness that descends from bad to worse, until it becomes so unsupportable that nations wilt as from disease. As far back as we have any historical records, the invariable rule has been that nations which ignored the principle of justice have reaped want, revolution, and dishonor. No nation has ever become great, or sustained its greatness, except by adhering to the highest standards of justice of which it was capable. No armies and no fleets since history began have availed for long to enforce injustice; nor have all the votes of all the electors of any country succeeded in advancing the common prosperity one step when the majority opinion has been unjust."

Old Yeller

(05/28/2001; 11:13:41 MDT - Msg ID: 54821)

Mr. Gresham;#54816

Well said'sir.The hospitality and genuine amiability displayed by the downtrodden throughout the third world in the face of such massive inequality is truly amazing.We all have a lot to learn about what constitutes the good life.

Trurl

(05/28/2001; 12:01:54 MDT - Msg ID: 54822)

PH in LA, Black Blade, ALL

PH in LA

Meaning no insult, but a big THANK YOU, for voluntarily incarcerating yourself in a large Amerikan city. I suppose I should thank the bulk of Amerikans for this same courtesy.

I went through the long driving phase in So. Cal, commuting from south of Big Bear to Irvine, every day, for seven years. I always first live where I choose, then find interesting work.

Keeping this on topic, has anyone here tried gold panning in Holcomb Valley, North of Big Bear? In a lot of the area, you can't help but get at least color�

A thought question for Black Blade, or anyone else who would respond, is any thoughts on small scale gold mining? I'm mostly thinking about panning or small scale hard rock mining; Right now with gold prices it really isn't worthwhile, but when POG does explode, we can also expect a mining swarm unlike any other?

Especially when people thinks its easy money. Especially when there isn't too much other sorts of work.
The current situation reminds me of the old comment about apiary � if a person can make a living as a bee keeper, they could make a fortune doing anything else.

There are always patented claims near me for sale. I have a battle remembering I am likely better off just buying the metal instread of the mine. Comments?

tedw

(05/28/2001; 12:11:07 MDT - Msg ID: 54823)

unhedged mining companies

http://www.usagold.com
Does anyone know which of the major mining companies are currently unhedged?

Specifically, how about Durban Deep (Drooy), Goldcorp, harmony, and Newmont.

Black Blade

(05/28/2001; 12:18:04 MDT - Msg ID: 54824)

NO, REALLY, I do Like California (LA LA Land) - I Used To Live There

I think that some have completely missed the point. Sure much of this focus on California is just some ribbing, while some of it is well deserved. I am a former Californian and Grasshopper as well. I lived in Escondido, Long Beach, South San Francisco, Hayward, and Castro Valley. I as a former Californian am amazed at how the voting majority allowed this problem to take hold especially when the problems of infrastructure were so obvious. Yes I do remember driving on the freeways for up to 5 hours a day just to get to and from work. I cut that travel time down some when I bought a Harley and drove between autos stuck in traffic. I remember burglar alarms going off day and night so often that they are ignored. I remember not being able to walk down the street in some neighborhoods without fearing for my life and being prohibited by law from being able to defend myself, I remember "Road Rage" with people pointing firearms at others while driving, I remember paying astronomical prices for rent, I remember seeing peoples constitutional rights violated and being shaken down by crooked law enforcement (example - LA Rampart Division), etc. I admit that I did enjoy the state's number one cash crop for several years, even so I finally woke up and said to myself "this isn't living, this is crazy!" I have to tell you, I at the time I could really identify with Michael Douglas's character in the file "Falling Down." Though I lived many years in California, I was fortunate enough to not turn psychotic.

Don't get me wrong, I loved the weather and have many good friends still fighting the rat race. When I talk to them I am constantly reminded of the attitude of the voting majority who have allowed these politicians put the state on auto-pilot and who focused their attention on the pressing problems of "Nuclear Free Zones," ebonics, saving various flies and noxious weeds, the "Snack Tax," and who knows what else - the fight to stop "Cat Juggling?" I finally left in 1984 and headed for the hills. Now there are no traffic jams, there is plenty of clean air, great rock climbing, mountain biking, fishing and hunting, beautiful snow capped mountain views with only the occasional California log palace to obstruct the view. I have worked for a few years in SE Asian and S American jungles and mountains and I have to say that the people in the Real World are quite wonderful. They plant and harvest rice, some are hunters, some are gatherers, many work placers for a few grains of gold, etc. They invite you into their villages and "very modest" homes with dirt floors, tin roofs, etc. and they will share all they have with you. They don't have much, but what they have they will share. Quite a different reality than the so-called Liberal who preaches that we must share and contribute to the greater good, but when push comes to shove they are just a bunch of hypocrites. I judge by what people do, not what they say.

Now you may ask why I pick on California. Actually, I don't single out California by design, they are just the first to exhibit the symptoms of the disease that is incubating throughout the US. The crumbling infrastructure, the energy crisis, the denial of the problems and the ridiculous finger-pointing among the politicians, etc. only highlight the problems in California. Obviously the voting majority of Californians have only the person in the mirror to blame. They got exactly what they voted for - an energy crisis, decaying infrastructure, rabid environmentalism, failing public education, etc. So the question I have is why are they sniveling and whining? They are a good study in base human nature. The Grasshopper and Ant analogy brought about by Aesop's fable is timeless. The rest of us in the US can use California as an example that we had better get to it and begin to change course in political and economic direction to make some serious changes or else we could end up just like California. The crisis in California is a wake up call to the rest of the nation. It is better to learn vicariously than by experience. You might say that the Californians are our canaries in the mine. Where California goes, we need not follow.

I'll have to get some more impressions of the energy crisis in California this August when several of my Californian friends come through on their way to Sturgis, SD.

Sierra Madre

(05/28/2001; 12:29:10 MDT - Msg ID: 54825)

TAx cut....

Perhaps the subject of the massive tax cut has already been dealt with, but...

It seems to me that the tax cut is just another desperate move to inject life into the deformed Frankenstein of the U.S. economy.

All these past years, there has been a lot of crowing about the disappearing national debt. (Actually, it continues to grow every day)

I venture to say, that the so-called surpluses never existed. As most know, the "surpluses" were invented by taking money out of the Social Security funds and leaving behind non-marketable bonds, and thus counting Social Security payments as tax revenues.

Then there was a windfall of tax receipts from increased stock prices and related capital gains. The stock prices went up due to the gigantic credit expansion, a credit expansion built on air, not on savings.

There were also corporate taxes from all the companies that made money, based on borrowing to hilt.

Now the bubble is collapsing: personal income taxes are going to tumble; so are corporate taxes.

Big, big deficits lie ahead. And with this problem looming ahead, THERE IS A TAX CUT?

Can you imagine the size of the coming Federal Deficits? I can't.

On top of this, the Fed has lowered short-term interest rates, which compared with the CPI look like free money available.

The Federal Government is going to have to monetize the gigantic deficits (slowdown plus tax-cut) and add that, to the already low - and perhaps even lower, later on - interest rates.

Unless I am mistaken - and I well may be, as two and two don't seem to add up to four in this world anymore - things are going to get wild in the currency and gold markets pretty soon.

Sierra

Black Blade

(05/28/2001; 12:32:15 MDT - Msg ID: 54826)

RE: Trurl

I and a partner had several claims in N. California where for a few years we actually made a good living until the state decided that we should not be "raping the earth." I am not familiar with your particular area, however, in S. California, the areas around Searchlight has some very productive mines. One that I had almost taken a position with was Castle Mountain Mine (Viceroy Gold), and another Mesquite Mine (formerly Santa Fe Pacific Gold - now Newmont). The gold at Castle Mountain was both microscopic and as visible gold in silicified Rhyolite. There is not much water, however, a dry washer might be useful. Warning - the state is opposed to working stiffs who move about a little desert dirt as this seems to "confuse" desert turtles. I don't know if there will ever be a "Gold Rush" in any part of the US should gold prices rebound. I think that US gold mining is about to end permanantly except for the already producing mines and some patented properties. The regulatory nightmares and rabid environmentalism means that it is easier to work prospective properties outside the US. Good Luck and may your returns be Golden!

- Black Blade

Chris Powell

(05/28/2001; 12:45:40 MDT - Msg ID: 54827)

The gold train will be the last train out

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/802New essay by Reg Howe.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Black Blade

(05/28/2001; 12:48:45 MDT - Msg ID: 54828)

RE: tedw and Hedged Miners

Tedw - you asked: Does anyone know which of the major mining companies are currently unhedged? Specifically, how about Durban Deep (Drooy), Goldcorp, harmony, and Newmont.

Black Blade: DROOY is hedged to the hilt, yet does have some speculative value due to leverage of it's unhedged reserves. I understand that they are working to unwind the hedges (forward sales). Goldcorp I am not all that familiar with, though they look interesting at first glance. I believe that they may be unhedged. HGMCY is unhedged, though they have a minor put position as required for some financing. I am sitting on some shares though they have a bit of debt and are talking about issuing more shares that would have a serious dilutive effect. I am voting against issuing additional shares through the proxy. NEM is a class of mining shares that we call Hedge-Lites. They have a minor forward sold position required by their banker (Goldman Sachs no less!) to maintain their credit rating. HM is in the same boat as NEM. MDG is supposedly unhedged and quite profitable - rare for a North American miner (I'm watching this one), AEM is unhedged though not a pure gold play, it has merit. GOLD is the second largest miner behind AU, and is completely unhedged and very profitable. I hold these shares as well even though I prefer that they share the wealth with a higher dividend. T.FN is a gold (diamond, oil, etc.) royalty company with a small mine. It is unhedged though they are buying into grossly over hedged Normandy in a weird partnership deal, some I may sell my FN shares because I don't want any companies that acquire unnecessary baggage. On the other hand, I would build up a sizable physical position in gold and silver before "Playing the Game" in company shares. That said, Good Luck! I think that gold could go ballistic when this energy crisis hits hard - maybe late summer or next winter perhaps. If not, it does add a safety factor for the overall portfolio.

JMB

(05/28/2001; 12:50:26 MDT - Msg ID: 54829)

Study Time

Go to The Miningweb.com, scroll waaaay down to "Recent Analysis" at the bottom, click on "Why Gold is Ready to Rally" by Paul van Eden 3-29-01 (don't worry, it's not that dated). You may get side tracked along the way by other interesting articles but eventually you will finish Paul's article and then the fun begins.

We've all heard of "Late Bloomers" so I am delighted to report that I have discovered the epitome of "late bloomers"...at least as far as understanding the importance of gold as financial protection of our wealth against an imminent catrostophic economic meltdown.. His name is Brad Bloomer. His response to Paul's article will bring a smile to your face. This poor bastard, as smart as he seems, just doesn't see it. More's a pity.

Black Blade

(05/28/2001; 13:02:58 MDT - Msg ID: 54830)

RE: US_Army(RET)

NO SIR! I thank you! My father served as an officer on one of these AGR class vessels in the 1960's in the N. Atlantic. He served on the USS Protector (AGR-11). I remember all the trouble these ships got into while gathering intelligence. Some of us remember the USS Liberty and the cowardice exhibited by our president and the US Legislative branch when they refused to publicly recognize the couragious actions of these unarmed men under fire by the military forces of a supposed ally. They were no threat, yet they were murdered even machine-gunned in lifeboats. We also remember the USS Pueble, another AGR class vessel, that was captured by the forces of N. Korea in international waters. They were beaten and tortured over several months while the cowards in Washington consorted with dictators and criminal at state dinners.

Don't get me wrong, in spite of all the unhonorable actions by our government leaders, I did not run to Canada or Sweden, but I served as well when called. We owe a lot to those who gave their lives. At least this day we can remember those from the Revolution to Tripoli to WWI to WWII to Korea to Vietnam to The Gulf, and all those forgotten actions who gave all. It is the very least that we can do. We Salute you!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/28/2001; 13:06:37 MDT - Msg ID: 54831)

Correction

That should be the USS Pueblo, commanded by commander Butcher. Note - even when the Coms published their group picture to the world they were still defiant. They all gave a "one-fingered salute." They had told the N. Koreans that it was a US "Good Luck" sign. American ingenuity and creativity - I love it.

Netking

(05/28/2001; 13:50:46 MDT - Msg ID: 54832)

Most decorated U.S. combat soldier of World War II.

http://www.audiemurphy.com/welcome.htmMost decorated U.S. combat soldier of World War II.
(Thanks to Kodie for this)

Lest we forget . . .

Audie Leon Murphy, son of poor Texas sharecroppers, rose to national fame as the most decorated U.S. combat soldier of World War II. Among his 33 awards and decorations was the Medal of Honor, the highest military award for bravery that can be given to any individual in the United States of America, for "conspicuous gallantry and intrepidity at the risk of his life above and beyond the call of duty." He also received every decoration for valor that his country had to offer, some of them more than once, including 5 decorations by France and Belgium. Credited with either killing over 240 of the enemy while wounding and capturing many others, he became a legend within the 3rd Infantry Division. Beginning his service as an Army Private, Audie quickly rose to the enlisted rank of Staff Sergeant, was given a "battle field" commission as 2nd Lieutenant, was wounded three times, fought in 9 major campaigns across the European Theater, and survived the war.

fastinfo

(05/28/2001; 15:22:14 MDT - Msg ID: 54833)

Lawsuit against Nesbitt Burns and Guy martineau brooker

http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/pages/010526/5058004.htmlA real rip off

Read this article:

http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/pages/010526/5058004.html

Gandalf the White

(05/28/2001; 15:23:05 MDT - Msg ID: 54834)

"Black Blade (05/28/01#: 54826)

More on Northern California OLD MINES !
======
Sir Black Blade said: "I and a partner had several claims in N. California" ---
--
The Hobbits would like to hear more discussion of those Northern CA mines and claims !! Have you heard of the "Dewey" ? I and a partner had a lease on the Dewey and sold it to Shell Mining Company in the early 80's -- BUT Shell, after punching $100,000 worth of drill holes, said that it was not large enough for their business profile.
Tell us of your experiences, SIR Shaft!!
<;-)

Black Blade

(05/28/2001; 15:49:40 MDT - Msg ID: 54835)

RE: Gandalf the White ... errr... Cinque

We had a small operation on a few claims along Coffee Creek, a tributary of the Trinity River near Weaverville, CA. We also had claims on the N. Yuba near Washington, CA. We finally ceased operations in 1982 and sold out equipment and let the claims lapse. The POG was declining and the state of California was getting a bit testy about mining by small miners. We just didn't need the aggravation after a while. I worked in Bezerkley for a while later, then I left the state and went back to school to pursue a couple of graduate degrees, and eventually post grad work leading to research and then to consultant work for minerals and petroleum. It was a good life lesson, and what led me to seek an existence in a more pristine environment. BTW, many of my friends in the small miner club went on to make their fortunes in the business of contraband (California's number one cash crop - green gold). It was easier than putting up with the state bureaucrats and quite profitable for some. Most are now living comfortably in retirement.

BTW, I still have many nice gold nuggets, including several in white quartz matrix.

Black Blade

(05/28/2001; 16:41:58 MDT - Msg ID: 54836)

California Residents, Businesses Face Tough Decisions in Energy Crisis

http://199.97.97.163/IMDS%PMAKRT0%read%/home/content/users/imds/feeds/knightridder/2001/05/28/krtbn/0000-0018-CC-ENERGY-CRISIS
Snippit:

Weather matters a lot because air conditioners gobble up nearly one-third of the state's energy use in the hottest summer hours. Because of bottlenecks in the transmission lines that feed power from one end of the state to the other, unusually hot conditions in Northern or Southern California will intensify the shortfall there.

Black Blade: A lot of human interest sob stories. Temperatures in California are expected to approach the 100 F degree mark this week. Maybe taxes should be raised in the state to help out the poor, and mandatory power outages in wealthier neighborhoods imposed for the benefit of the poor. It would be the Liberal thing to do. Can you say "Grasshoppers on a Griddle?"

Tree in the Forest

(05/28/2001; 16:47:28 MDT - Msg ID: 54837)

I LOVE LA

Allright, I think we have had enough bad mouthing of LA! Sure people from California are a bunch of lazy, socialist grasshoppers but that's no reason to trash the whole state! I was in LA once; it was open and it was very nice. I feel that I must come to the defense of our laid back brethren to the west. And so without further ado, here are:

THE TOP 10 REASONS WHY I LOVE LA

10) Cool song called "I Love LA"
9) Letterman used to live there
8) Cute girls on skates bring burgers to your car
7) Riots only every 25 years
6) Hollywood Bowl filled with Ramen noodles every Tuesday
5) Drive-in health clubs
4) Motion picture studios have funny costumes
3) People from Frisco drive on the opposite side of the road
2) Motorcycles don't need windshield wipers

(Drum roll)
And the number one reason why I Love LA:

1) Half nude women playing volleyball on the beach!

The Stranger

(05/28/2001; 16:53:03 MDT - Msg ID: 54838)

The Complaint Filed By Reg Howe Against The BIS, Alan Greenspan,The Bullion Banks Et Al

http://www.goldensextant.com/Complaint.html#anchor3130If you've never read it, make sure you do!

Black Blade

(05/28/2001; 16:56:01 MDT - Msg ID: 54839)

Analysts, Officials Consider Possibility of Texas Joining National Power Grid

http://199.97.97.163/IMDS%PMAKRT0%read%/home/content/users/imds/feeds/knightridder/2001/05/28/krtbn/0000-0028-DA-POWER-GRID
Snippit:

Grasshopper perspective:

May 27--WASHINGTON--President Bush's national energy plan includes a study on whether Texas should be brought into a national electricity grid, where some of its surplus power could move to states such as California that don't have enough. Even though there's a sizable power surplus in Texas, sales to the West aren't possible now because the Texas power grid is not connected to the Western states.

Ant Perspective:

H. Sterling Burnett of the National Center for Policy Analysis in Dallas said a national grid would probably spread California's woes over a much larger part of the country. California's power shortfalls have raised power demand -- and prices -- across several Western states that are linked to California on the Western Interconnection. "If we had a national grid, they could suck more power out of the coal-fired plants in the Midwest, increasing emissions ... and raise prices for other energy users competing with California for that power," he said. With a surplus of power in Texas, the price spikes endured by California seem remote.

Black Blade: There are three grids in the US. the Western Interconnection, the Eastern Interconnection and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT. This plan looks like an effort to rob the Ants for the benefit of the Grasshoppers. All for a few votes. The answer of course is to the "bad part" fail, and to repair or replace it. Of course if any apologists for the California fiasco have any solutions, I'm all ears.

Henri

(05/28/2001; 17:40:05 MDT - Msg ID: 54840)

Netking Msg 54791 The squeeze

Looks more like people piling onto a party boat that will be settled in cash!... Hmmm...Let's see...Not enough gold to cover the bets? Why lets just print some green backs to bail out all those poor agreived souls who could't get theisr gold...and all their friends who know they will be paid out in cash too. Let the POG run for the pigs are at the trough and expecting to be fed. Comex can not be allowed to fail... that would send a bad signal to the paper gold trading world.

Henri

(05/28/2001; 17:43:33 MDT - Msg ID: 54841)

Whoa!...Poor spelling.

Too many "Old Horizontals" better lay off. Wife already noticed my intoxication.

Henri

(05/28/2001; 17:52:29 MDT - Msg ID: 54842)

Sir Gandalf the White Msg 54793

I too came up with "Cinque"...I feel honored to share your Farrakan bestowed moniker. Know where I can get any quartz xtals?

(05/28/2001; 18:29:56 MDT - Msg ID: 54843)

Out of AFRICA

With the GATA conference having been held just this month
in Durban, South Africa and the importance of gold mining
to the region, as well as Africa as a whole, the following
is resposted:

Just Out of AFRICA
latest from Africa:
1. Colin Powell said in Johannesburg Friday 5-25-01 that
the U.S. is "committed..to Africa and its future".
He also said that Africa would have to find its own
way to the future but that the U.S. would "be with it
every step of the way".

2. The African Union was formed on Saturday 5-26-01 in
Addis-Abbaba Ethiopia consisting of 53 member African
nations. It is planned that this Union will eventually
have its own central bank and resemble the European
Union.

Does anyone know what Colin Powell's thoughts on gold are?

In the future it will also be important to know what the
African Union's thinking on gold will be.

Richard, Oregon

(05/28/2001; 18:45:56 MDT - Msg ID: 54844)

Gandalf

Email me . . . lost your address during a recent crash!

Netking

(05/28/2001; 18:46:39 MDT - Msg ID: 54845)

@Henri . . . . er. . . Cinque2?

54791/54793
Yes, On the "day of reckoning" I have no doubt there will be a bail out package in place, in fact I believe it's sitting there now awaiting activation. They know the scenario, it's politics & damage control from now on.

The way to beat this game is to take delivery from Comex. It's what people have done in the past in all PM's traded there. When Comex scrambles to find physical this may be the fuse.

(I got given a new name on "that site", it came up with "Huggy Bear!", say what!, I'll stick with Sir Netking.

(05/28/2001; 19:09:57 MDT - Msg ID: 54846)

Gold Stock Dividends

From Black Blade's earlier post " tedw and Hedged Miners"
regarding the Gold Fields Dividend:

"GOLD is the second largest miner behind AU, and is completely unhedged and very profitable. I hold these shares as well even though I prefer
that they share the wealth with a higher dividend. "

Does someone have the current dividend yields for Durban Deep, Newmont, Homestake, and Placer Dome?

For comparison, here are today's dividend yields for South Africa's majors: (based on closing prices in Johannesburg
Monday May 28, 2001)

Anglo Gold 4.61 %

Gold Fields 2.94 %

Harmony 2.65 %

(05/28/2001; 19:16:42 MDT - Msg ID: 54847)

GOLD STOCK DIVIDENDS

Gold Stock Dividends
From Black Blade's earlier post " tedw and Hedged Miners"
regarding the Gold Fields Dividend:
"GOLD is the second largest miner behind AU, and is completely unhedged
and very profitable. I hold these shares as well even though I prefer
that they share the wealth with a higher dividend. "
Does someone have the current dividend yields for Durban Deep, Newmont,
Homestake, Placer Dome and BARRICK ?
For comparison, here are today's dividend yields for South Africa's
majors: (based on closing prices in Johannesburg
Monday May 28, 2001)
Anglo Gold 4.61 %
Gold Fields 2.94 %
Harmony 2.65 %

silvercollector

(05/28/2001; 19:20:04 MDT - Msg ID: 54848)

Commitment of Traders

Does anyone have a link to the gold COT reports?

Does anyone follow this as an indicator and if possible please comment?

Thanks in advance.

silvercollector

MoutainGold

(05/28/2001; 19:24:29 MDT - Msg ID: 54849)

Good Be Big Week for Gold& SIlver....

Opinions about Gold are like behinds, everyones got one.

This week starts seasonal strength lasting till August. The USDollar is toppy. My TA work suggests a big up move this week is poosible. Reason? Do not now...just follow price action. If you do not know, I take my analysis and translate it to actual trading action....

Nice to read different opinions and rare to have any accountability in these opinions especially when they are wrong!!

Buying new highs in Swiss Franc, Euro, Gold and Silver.

Good Luck All....great three days of Golf and BBQ Back to Business!!

SHIFTY

(05/28/2001; 19:28:00 MDT - Msg ID: 54850)

I also hold Goldfields. If I am correct I read someplace they pay 50% of the profits to the share holders.
Could get interesting.

Not investment advise.

$hifty

jinx44

(05/28/2001; 20:05:13 MDT - Msg ID: 54851)

Kalifornia, land of ekwality

I cannot believe the Kalifornia ire. They can all vote with their feet but choose to remain. Those that stay deserve the marxist squalor they inherit. Fall into the ocean! If you don't come out of Babylon, your will inherit it. Hollywood is your cruel legacy. What's wrong with your picture???

Black Blade

(05/28/2001; 20:06:01 MDT - Msg ID: 54852)

RE: ax - Dividend Yeilds

As of Friday's market close the yeilds are as follows:

Durban Deep - none
Newmont - 0.50%
Homestake - 0.30%
Placer Dome - 0.80%
Barrick - 1.2%

News Flash - Victor Kiam died today. He liked Remmington soooooo much that he bought the company. He also bought the New England Patriots. Once when a female sportscaster entered the Patriots locker room, a nude player approached her and told her to speak into the mike. She fled in tears. When later asked about the incident, Victor Kiam said, "I guess she was never that close to a Patriot Missle before." Both he and the offending player were sanctioned by the NFL. Certainly a colorful character.

Orville Goldenbacher

(05/28/2001; 20:06:07 MDT - Msg ID: 54853)

Black Blade, green gold

Black Blade:

BTW, many of my friends in the small miner club went on to make their fortunes in the business of contraband (California's number one cash crop - green gold). It was easier than putting up with the state bureaucrats and quite profitable for some. Most are now living comfortably in retirement.

OG:

from what i understand, many growers of "green gold" have been driven indoors and use really big lights, that take lots of elecricity, to grow their precious herbs. if these people could use the sun to grow these plants (instead of hid's), it would save many tons of kwh's. their might not even be an energy "crisis". There is just so much money involved in the contraband it pays to keep it illegal, i guess. the grower$ make it and the copper$ take it. long live Gold, long live GATA.

Warren

(05/28/2001; 20:13:59 MDT - Msg ID: 54854)

(No Subject)

INVESTING FOR THE LONG HAUL:This is my first post to this forum. I only post now because I see so many pro and cons about GOLD and SILVER and how much to invest and when will someone will become a millionaire.

Let me tell you a true story about my uncle Fred.

He was a farmer and a dealer in fuels and worked out of hia barn wher he had big tanks and trucks would come by and fill the tanks.
People from miles around would come to purchase buy fuel for their cars and trucks, tractors and even latern and heating oil.
For a piece of gold he would give extra fuel and for silver a little less. For paper money he would give exact measure.

Well when my uncle died the family found all these nail barrels filled with silver and gold. In his will was they could not sell until his youngest son reached thirty and then sell and split amoungst the family.

Well- They were millionairs in 1991. His will said save gold and silver and spend paper. He trusted not the bankers and the goverment. NO advice

Camel

(05/28/2001; 20:15:56 MDT - Msg ID: 54855)

Solutions

The way I hear it there are two large new gas power plants scheduled for completion in California in late August, that have been under construction for several years but will be online too late for this summer. I don't remember the total megawatts or if they are sufficiant to meet all the shortfall, and I don't have the time or energy to research the exact figures. Also at least some part of the problem is due to lack of snowpack in the northwest, hardly the fault of Gov Davis who has been in office what, less than two years

As for solutions, there were solutions to these problems 20 years ago that could have been in place by now. There are no quick solutions now. I remember one interesting conservation idea for heating and cooling large buildings such as a 40 story glass sky scrapers. I don't know if anyone is paying the bills on one of those but 20 years ago ( if my memory is correct} they were running up to $75,000 per month. This particular idea made use of the fact that as the sun moved around during the course of the day there was a tremendous temperature differential between the sunny side and the cool side of the building and sophisticated thermastats could direct the heating and cooling accordingly.Very easy to install when a building is under constuction ,but hard to retrofit.

There were many interesting ideas floating around at that time,a lot of enthusuiasum and momentum for conservation and alternative energy such as solar power, tax incentives, educational programs , energy efficiancy standards for major appliances, research grants, the whole works. All of this was snuffed out by Reagan because his hatred of liberals, and environmentalists was so great that anything they proposed was rejected out of spite, the country be damned.

Look at pictures of the homes in Isreal and you will see every one has a solar collector for hot water on the roof. Every one. That could have been done here and that alone would have probably made up the shortfall in California. Hell, just changing the damn light bulbs wouild probably go a long way toward making up the short fall. Instead we have been given nothing but lies and obfuscation for 20 years.

The ant- grasshopper anology is just a cheap shot doesn't hold up. Its the lying govenment which is controlled by the big corporations like the oil industry that have a vested interest in preventing conservation that has caused this.

Black Blade

(05/28/2001; 20:20:02 MDT - Msg ID: 54856)

RE: Orville Goldenbacher

You are right. Indoor growers use very powerful energy intensive sodium halide lamps. The governments muscle uses light spectrum and heat detection technology, as well as utility meter readings to track down growers. Some use portable generators or illegally tap into the energy grid for the juice. I remember when cannabis was $10.00 for a "five-finger lid," later $200.00/oz., and now? Who knows. More than an oz. of gold? If that isn't inflation, I don't know what is. As the state's number one cash crop, just think of how much energy must be used if even 10% of that is indoors. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(05/28/2001; 20:22:14 MDT - Msg ID: 54857)

RE: Warren

Your Uncle sounds like quite the guy. Welcome to the "Table."

megatron

(05/28/2001; 20:36:19 MDT - Msg ID: 54858)

silvercollector

I never did recieve a reply from you. What was your question?

Tree in the Forest

(05/28/2001; 20:39:30 MDT - Msg ID: 54859)

silvercollector

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htmAbove is a link to the CFTC Comex COT. I've seen some daily charts too. Somebody commented (I think Lamprey_65) that you have to be careful using the COT for gold because it can change quickly. I think I saw daily charts on Sharefin's site. I commented that commercials are currently short gold. MoutainGold is calling for higher POG. Good luck.

Boxman

(05/28/2001; 20:44:41 MDT - Msg ID: 54860)

Map of the grid

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/chg_str/booklet/images/fig4.jpgTexas deserves a more masculine color.

Black Blade

(05/28/2001; 20:54:11 MDT - Msg ID: 54861)

RE: Camel, what solutions?

I'm glad that the state is scurrying about to build NG-fired power plants. Tell me - where will they get the natural gas to power them? With Kommissar threatening to seize power plants and to imprision CEO's of energy companies, I see no desire by out of state providers to take on the liability by doing business in California. Socialism just plain doesn't work. BTW, they stopped construction on the Rancho Seco nuclear power plant when it was near completion - oops! True enough about the snowpack, but relying on the snowpack every year in another state to meet one's power needs is at best foolish. Solar panels? Nice but who do you propose to pay for them? The homeowner? Why should they do that when utility rates are capped by the state of California? I see no incentive there. Even the large wind farms, hydrothermal plants and what solar power exists only provides 0.1% of the states energy needs. Why not clip the "out of state" NG pipeline tariff so that NG will be cheaper for use in NG-fired power plants? The Kommissar and his cronies in the legislature could rescind all those energy taxes. Nah, that would be too easy. Focused environmental controls in high rises have been around for decades, Johnson Controls Inc. (JCI) has been a leader in that technology from day one.

I am by no means a fan of Reagan (or any politicians for that matter). Somehow I don't see Ronnie running around putting the kabosh on new technology, as you say "because his hatred of liberals, and environmentalists was so great that anything they proposed was rejected out of spite, the country be damned." I somehow think that if there was a profit to be made, he and any other politician would be there "Johnny on the Spot" trying to figure a way to get a piece of the action. And your description of Israeli homes sounds a lot to me like they are quite the communities of Ants! I suggest that people look out for number one and take responsibility by examining how they vote, conserve, prepare and not sell out their birthright of freedom and liberty for the supposed illusory security that government claims to provide. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Leigh

(05/28/2001; 20:55:33 MDT - Msg ID: 54862)

Camel

Dear Camel: What is missing in your post is any mention of individual responsibility. Anyone who lived through the 1970s is well aware of ways to conserve gas and electricity. Although I'm a nontechnical type, I know a fair amount about solar power, electric cars, windmills, steam generators, and what not simply by reading popular magazines and listening to the news. My husband and I have often weighed the pros and cons of solar power. He knows a great deal about nuclear power from his job training. We, and everyone else, have been able at any time to become more energy self-sufficient.

You seem to think that the government is supposed to do everything for everyone. Well, I don't know whether your assertion about Mr. Reagan is true or not, but I DO know that Clinton and Gore (who cared so deeply about the environment) never did a thing to promote energy conservation. So the blame can be placed on both parties. However, even at this late date, homeowners in California can still choose to switch to alternative energy. You can rest assured that entrepreneurs will rise up to meet the demand. By reducing home electric use, by carpooling, by cutting back on unnecessary car trips, etc., people making individual choices can conserve. The government doesn't have to be involved AT ALL.

I was only a teen back then, but I remember a positive, "can-do" spirit during the 1970s. People really felt that their efforts at conservation could make a difference, both in their monthly bills and on a macro level. And government wasn't leading the way. If anything, it was positive media promotion about conservation that fostered these good attitudes.

Why are you ranting about the government? Don't you think that power consumers need to be taking matters into their own hands?

(05/28/2001; 20:57:37 MDT - Msg ID: 54863)

Gold Stock Dividend Follow Up

Thanks, Black Blade, for the yields on the other gold stocks. They are smaller than I realized. When CNBC's Joe Kernan remarked how low the yields on gold stocks were he must have been refering to these. The three South African
majors are definitely better.

Shifty, that 50 % of the profits you refer to must be
something other than the standard dividend. To my knowledge, Anglo Gold has the highest yield and pays out the
highest proportion of its profits as dividends.

What is outstanding about the 3 major South African dividend payers is that you receive a good dividend while at the
same time having the potential of capital gain that would
come later with increasing gold price.

Leigh

(05/28/2001; 21:04:00 MDT - Msg ID: 54864)

Black Blade

http://www.robinsoncurriculum.comHi, Black Blade!! Are you the one who was mentioning about Dr. Art Robinson a year or so ago? Here's an interesting article you might enjoy about him. Click onto the link above; you'll see a mention of it at the top left.

If you're interested in reading the article, it will give your very much overworked typing hands a rest! You've been amazingly prolific today!

Tree in the Forest

(05/28/2001; 21:04:56 MDT - Msg ID: 54865)

Zenidea

I was a pretty lazy engineer myself at one point. In the 70's I was building fiber optic telemetry systems when most people had never heard of fiber optics. There was very little in the way of commercially available materials. We built many things ourselves. The best designs were always the simplest. Less is more.

megatron

(05/28/2001; 21:20:26 MDT - Msg ID: 54866)

Exactly

Sadly the people of Cali'phony'ia are getting what they 'asked voted' for. It boils down to personal responsibility and that is rarer than any PM in the screwed up minds of today's hysterical liberal socialist. They utterly refuse to accept the fact that it was them who caused 95% of thier own problem. NO ONE ELSE! How they can now think the GUBAMINT is going to assist them or right past wrongs is so far beyond reasoning it's futile. They are only a tip of the iceberg for the whole raft of MORON LIBERAL UNWORKABLE policies of the last 30 years. Everywhere else will eventually suffer the same fate. This is the 'trailer'.

SHIFTY

(05/28/2001; 21:22:27 MDT - Msg ID: 54867)

http://www.goldfields.co.za/Sir ax check out the Goldfields web site. Scroll down to :

DIVIDEND HISTORY DIVIDEND POLICY
Period Date Paid DPS
Interim 1999
Final 1999
Interim 2000 19 March 1999
8 October 1999
24 March 2000 50 cents
30 cents
20 cents
It is the company's policy to pay around 50 per cent of its cash earnings as dividends depending upon investment opportunities.

-----------------
I thought I had seen that someplace.
:-)
$hifty

Black Blade

(05/28/2001; 21:23:27 MDT - Msg ID: 54868)

RE: Leigh

Thanks Leigh, I also tend to remember that the Robinson's were co-authors with Zachery on the "Opposition to the Kyoto Accords." I was one of the 19,000 scientists who were signatories because of the flawed science and dubious data used to "manufacture" the Kyoto data. Since then, there is more data to debunk the Kyoto Accords as "Junk Science." But that's another subject for another time. I have seen that home schooled students have been aggressively recruited by top US universities in recent years. They vastly outperform public education students by far. My sister had home schooled her children. Now she has two MD's in the family (actually one is in residency), one is an artist (a damn good one too), and another is taking a sabbatical before going back to school as he wishes to do the religious Christian missionary thing first (hope he doesn't get into an airplane over Peru). How have you done with the home school routine?

IronHead

(05/28/2001; 21:27:02 MDT - Msg ID: 54869)

Pack Rats Still On The Ship & Black Blade

http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c107:S.890:Well it is Memorial Day (observed) so a short mention of the other "G" word seems in order.

Gives me a little relief neither of these two "rats" made the grade. Unfortunately they are still on the slippery slope as outlined by the above link regarding fun - shows.

By the way Sir Black Blade: Thanks for confirming what I speculated to Sir Tree awhile back about you being a road warrior - motorcylist. Kool. Perhaps we should form a rally from all corners of the union, or world, and converge upon.......say, Denver, to hoist some booty from the Castle Keep. I'm sure Sir MK could put us all up at his hostel, or would it be truly hostile of me to suggest such tomfoolery?

Leigh

(05/28/2001; 21:36:09 MDT - Msg ID: 54870)

Black Blade

I was homeschooling my 10 year old son off and on for several years (we were moving a lot), but I had to stop. He wasn't using his time well. He was ornery and took all day to finish his assignments. So I put him in a gifted school, and he's doing a great job. He won first place for the fourth grade in the science fair, and he placed Honorable Mention in a recent piano competition.

My four year old daughter is just starting to get homeschooled! She is just the opposite; she's a slow learner. I tried not to pressure her before, but now I'm realizing that she needs to be pushed some. Just today we started an intensive homeschool program, and she's very proud and excited.

Thanks for remembering!

(05/28/2001; 21:38:59 MDT - Msg ID: 54871)

USAGOLD Discussion - May 2001