http://biz.yahoo.com/cnw/010509/westaim_smith_nephew_3.htmlWith it's uses already in the 1,000's Ag(miracle metal) keeps impressing with what it can & will do next. Such as the soon to be mass produced silver bandages and band-aids by Smith & Nephew. . . and I don't think much of this new silver usage will be recyclable...it's coming folks, cause silver-coated bandages do work to keep bacteria clear from an open wound and speed up healing this after silver sulfadiazene creme(Silvadene) has been used for burns for many years with great success.
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(quote)"The Acticoat� product is a nanocrystalline silver-based dressing used for the treatment and prevention of infection in burns. The product has had strong growth since its introduction in 1998 and has developed a significant reputation within burn hospitals in North America. It has demonstrated a wide antimicrobial spectrum and is effective against many different pathogens." (Disclosure:no shares held, but some silver)View Yesterday's Discussion.

On conspiracy-
Conspiracies come in different flavors and types. The simplest is the true conspiracy: a group of men and/or women gathered together in secret to plan a coodinated course of action. Examples include a football huddle, planning a surprise birthday party, a military campaign or a bank robbery and of course the classic 1910 Jekyll Island resort meeting that hatched the Federal Reserve.

But there are other kinds of conspiracy that may not usually be given that name. The Japanese planning of the attack on Pearl Harbor was a true conspiracy when viewed in isolation. The planners thought they were working in secrecy and so formulated and carried out their strategy accordingly. But in retrospect, what had seemed to them to be a perfectly executed surprise attack was in fact 'perfect' only because a second group of conspirators (the Roosevelt Administration), unknown to the Japanese group, had made it possible. This type of double-cross conspiracy is sometimes called a "sting" or a "set-up". The analogy with the suprise birthday party is when the person it is being thrown for finds out about it beforehand, and keeps quiet so as not to spoil the suprise.

It would be very interesting to find out, if possible, what Yamamoto and his co-conspirators were thinking as they planned this attack. Did he really believe the five-digit code, now called JN25, was not breakable? Did he think the torpedo-bombing exercises went unnoticed, that an entire fleet could be assembled in Tokyo Bay and depart across the Pacific undetected? Was he watching the shifting of American personnel and materiel during 1941? Did they work through war game scenarios to see where the American provocations were leading? This should have tipped him off.

If they did indeed know this was a set-up, they we have a very different game dynamic- an unspoken conspiracy, one in which the different participants intuitively understand they are working toward a common goal but do not communicate this with each other. A generalization of this is found in freeway traffic all traveling together over the speed limit. Each participant acts independently without formally contracting with the potential counterparties; the other drivers. This may explain in part why we use an unconstitutional, unlawful depreciating currency without giving it any thought- the other 'drivers' are doing the same and traffic appears to be flowing smoothly regardless. Most of us are getting where we want to go while the roadkill just gets ignored and squashed under the tires of the herd- I've got mine, Jack.

If this theory is correct, then this would then be the primary internal dollar support mechanism.

This is a touchy subject, but one that should be addressed.
Everybody is either a Mason, or has/had one for a family member. My beloved Grandfather was a 32nd degree Mason.

The Mason's do much good. I was born with a club foot, the Mason's helped to pay my doctor/hospital bills until i was 18 years old. I walk/run just fine, thanks to Mason's.

That is the Good Side, now let's explore the darker side. Let's see if "THEY" are part of the conpiracy to hold the price of Gold down and other dastardly deeds yet to come.

Grandpa was a highly respected Dentist in the early 1900's, my Grandmother was a Lutheran who did not fully approve of my Grandfather's new "religion". They were good people.
When my Grandfather passed away, my Grandmother had to find a Baptist preacher to do the "Christian" funeral because the Lutheran minister would not.

Many Mason's are truly "ignorant". It is a secret society, thus, there are many secrets held from the lower member's. As they climb the ladder, more secrets are revealed. Only the 33rd degree Mason's know "all" the secrets. Obviously, being kept in the dark breeds ignorance.

Many Masonic members are influenced by Power and Money, they help their own. Many doctor's, lawyer's, presidents, sheiks, judges, Bullion banker's, etc. are Mason's.

In order to be a Mason, you must believe in a Supreme being, it could be Jesus, Allah, Buddah, Satan, Zeus, etc., doesn't really matter who, just must be Supreme.

Any "Thoughts"? Maybe we can hear from some Mason's and get their point of veiw?

Thanks,

OG

P.S. If it is not painfully obvious what the connections Mason's have to Gold, please stay tuned. More later....

http://www2.haaretz.co.il/breaking-news/intifada/368126.stm Hezbollah Guerillas are currently busy firing mortars at Israeli troops. Israel has been busy responding to the attacts this weekend as the article states. Saddam, and Osama Bin Laden are apparently up to alot right now as well. We have warned the Taliban over Bin Laden this week. As well as knowing that Saddam is building troops to invade the Kurds (He wants us to retaliate, in order for Russia and China to take a more harder stance against the sactions they dont want). SO long cease fire.

As we come to "the day of rest and reflection", may we give thanks that the forum is still in operation. To my mind it is the "One True" clearinghouse for understanding the "One True Storehouse" behind the "apparent" fabric of our economic lives.....to have the Forum expire due to semantics, disagreement, and personality differences, all of which obscure the deeper meaning of what we are attempting to understand and respond to here, would indeed be a great tragedy.
Keep up the good work MK, TG, ORO, Randy, and all others of good intent.....remember the true meaning of all this is much deeper than the words...don't let simple words deter.
Peace
Bowing
Goldenpeace

Your quote : We did not need help from foreign work forces to prosper at the end of WWII.

I am not that sure. Your Marshall plan was first and foremost in the US interest. It allowed the US to switch smoothly from a war economy to a peace economy. It was, mostly, equipment (car, heavy machinery and others goods) that should have been discarded if the Europeans would not need it because their economy was in ruin. I still believe that it helped the Europeans, albeit not that much as far as the French and the Britts are concerned, but may I remind you that the loans have been repaid back to the last cent, interest included.

It is tantamount to buy brand new furniture while sending your old one (against payment + interest for sure) to your neighbour after you have broken everything in his house.

As for : "If anyone out there is troubled by an over abondance of those worthless green backs, you can get my e-mail address from Randy and we will arrange shipment to my home." I would be happy to comply provided you send me back your gold that so many of you despise. If I was the Chinese, I could deplete your vaunted gold stock in 24 hours flat.

Sorry Sir! I don't believe in the benevolence of the USA.

July 1, 2001

By NEELA BANERJEE Copyright 2001 The New York Times

For Pablo Hadzeriga to leave the profession he loved, it took a terse letter from his employer as he returned from his honeymoon.

At the time, in 1992, Mr. Hadzeriga was a seasoned petroleum engineer who had survived several rounds of
layoffs that had cost thousands of highly educated people their jobs and left many friends struggling to pay their
mortgages. He estimated that his employer, Maxus Energy, had whittled it staff, to about 560 people from
almost 7,000, as oil prices tumbled.

Then it was his turn. Maxus Energy mailed Mr. Hadzeriga a letter that began by referring to him as "a former
Maxus employee."

Mr. Hadzeriga found work again in his field with another company and eventually moved back to his
hometown, Denver, from Dallas. But when the chance came in 1995 to abandon oil � and the manic fate of
working in a boom-and-bust industry � he grabbed it. "It wasn't a decision about money: I took a pay cut
coming here," said Mr. Hadzeriga, 42, who now works as a product development manager at a plastics
company. "I'm leaving behind the highs and lows of the oil industry."

Now the oil industry is prospering again, thanks to a doubling of natural gas prices and a tripling of oil prices
since late 1998. Companies are enjoying handsome profits and the breathing room, for the first time in years, to
pursue new projects aggressively. But the bitter past of layoffs haunts the industry's thriving present.

As politicians warn of an approaching energy crisis, the oil industry is trying to avoid a severe shortage of its
own. From the Gulf of Mexico to Prudhoe Bay in Alaska, from large multinationals to small specialized offshore
drillers, oil companies are having trouble finding and holding on to the engineers and geologists who discover oil
and the roughnecks on the rigs who pull it from the earth.

A labor shortage means that companies may have to postpone efforts to find new oil and gas fields while they
wait for skilled workers.

"If we don't do anything about this labor trend over the next 36 months, things could get critical," said John
Gibson, chief executive of Landmark Graphics, a unit of the Halliburton Company, the oil-field services
company in Dallas.

Like Mr. Hadzeriga, many who left are staying away, and few new people are taking their places. Oil
companies have had some success in attracting unskilled workers, but a hole is widening within the ranks of the
petroleum engineers, geophysicists and geologists who make the crucial and costly decisions about where to
drill.

That highly specialized population in the industry is aging. The average age of members of the American
Association of Petroleum Geologists, for example, is 49. In 1981, it was 41. Yet oil's long downturn
discouraged people now in their 20's and 30's from studying petroleum engineering and geology.

Already, new oil and natural gas projects have been delayed because of a tight market for rigs and labor,
industry analysts said. Oil companies say the problem is serious, though few will acknowledge that they have
difficulty themselves in attracting qualified workers, for fear of looking troubled to their competitors and Wall
Street.

Those willing to talk are trying to avert a crisis. Exxon Mobil is heavily recruiting engineers and geologists from
universities again. BP has developed an associate degree program with the University of Alaska to train
students to replace the blue- collar workers who will soon be retiring from fields in the Alaskan North Slope.
And Global Marine Inc., the deepwater drilling outfit, is recruiting within the military for reliable workers.

"On the professional engineering side, there's a shortage industrywide," said Sheldon Erikson, chairman of the
Cooper Cameron Corporation, a $2 billion oil-field services company in Houston. "People are feeling it
because business has picked up, especially in the offshore market. We're looking at a pretty empty barrel now."

Twenty years ago, the oil industry promised good pay and bountiful work for young men � and a smattering of
women � who had a taste for science and adventure. Mr. Hadzeriga, the son of a chemical engineer, had
traveled to three continents and studied five languages by the time he was 20. And he believed that a degree in
petroleum engineering might take him someday to places where he could use his Spanish, Arabic or Russian.

"I sold everything I owned, sold my car, said goodbye to everybody," he recalled of his departure for a job in
Angola in 1983, just after he graduated from the Colorado School of Mines. "I was out to see the big huge
world."

At that time, the oil industry was flush with cash and convinced that oil prices would stay high for years. But
growing supplies and flat demand led to a depression in the industry that took hold in 1986 and only began to
lift a year ago. According to the American Petroleum Institute, about 754,500 people worked in exploration
and production, arguably the most crucial part of the oil industry, in 1982. As of last month, the number had
almost halved, to 336,400. From 1997 to 1999, the oil and gas industry shed 60,000 exploration and
production jobs, mainly because of low oil prices, said Ron Planting, an analyst at the Petroleum Institute.

Some companies bucked the trend and held on to employees. Anadarko Petroleum, a $14 billion independent
exploration and production company in Houston, resisted staff cutbacks, as did the Rowan Companies, a
major drilling contractor also in Houston. Global Marine chose salary cuts over layoffs. Because the company
retained younger workers, the average age of its work force is 36 � the same as it was 10 years ago.

"Layoffs look good to shareholders at a particular time, but they harm long-term development," said Edward E.
Thiele, chief financial officer at Rowan. "You train all these people and then you lay them off, and then you have
to train new people all over again."

Most companies succumbed to the pressure to pare their work forces, but many layoff victims do not return.
Companies often shed a greater proportion of older engineers and geologists through early retirement packages
and nurtured a younger, cheaper crop of professionals. Those people are now middle-aged, however, and
many have the savings to retire by 55.



The "graying" of the oil industry has become so pronounced that in seven years, the sector could lose 40
percent to 60 percent of its work force to retirement, according to an informal survey that Mr. Gibson
conducted 18 months ago of his firm's main clients, which include some of the country's biggest oil companies.

Mr. Gibson said some companies were still debating how severe the labor drought might be and remained
convinced that machines would fill the gap. New technology has clearly reduced the number of people required
for many jobs. Automated rig handling, for example, has cut the number of roughnecks needed to drill wells.
Three-dimensional seismic studies of oil and gas reservoirs help the industry better identify the most promising
places to drill. Companies now drill fewer exploratory wells, which means that they need fewer people.

But oil companies need geophysicists, geologists and petroleum engineers to use that technology and interpret
its complex data. And there will be fewer of those people to go around.

"Oil and gas is first found in people's minds," said Harold M. Korell, chief executive of the Southwestern
Energy Company, an independent natural gas exploration company in Houston. "You need the people to pull all
the data together and figure out where to drill. Five or 10 years from now, these 50-year-olds will be 60. Who
will replace them?"

Sons of oilmen once followed their fathers into the field. But a whole generation came of age in the mid- 1980's
in places like Houston and Dallas and watched their fathers lose their jobs and their families lose their homes.
Alumni of the Colorado School of Mines � which along with Texas A&M and the University of Texas is a top
school for oil-industry engineers and scientists � have told Ron Brummett, the director of the college's career
center, that they advise their children to avoid the industry and to choose more stable work. When Mr. Gibson
recently asked a room of 400 industry middle managers how many would encourage their children to enter the
oil business, he said, about five people raised their hands.

While the industry faltered in the 1990's, the rest of the American economy boomed. Young people were lured
by new-economy promises of more relaxed places to work, high- technology equipment to play with, and the
potential to become instant millionaires � at least on paper.

"Our industry has an image problem that comes from a lack of getting the message out," said R. D. Blue,
manager for domestic recruiting and employment at Exxon Mobil. Many young people dismiss the oil business
as a low-tech part of the old economy, he said, but "nothing could be farther from the truth."



In 1986, 102 students graduated from the Colorado School of Mines with bachelor's degrees in petroleum
engineering; in 2001, there were 34. At the University of Texas, about 180 petroleum engineering students
graduated in 1982, compared with 34 this year. Ekwere J. Peters, the department chairman at Texas, estimated
that a total of about 300 students nationwide graduated with bachelor of science degrees in the major last year.
That, he added, would not be enough to meet demand in the oil labor market.

The tight supply of engineers and so-called geoscientists has driven up starting salaries. According to Mr.
Brummett at the Colorado School of Mines, the average starting salary this year for its graduates, at $48,402,
is about 8.8 percent higher than last year. The average salary for a geologist with less than two years'
experience is now $59,700, versus $48,400 five years ago, according to the American Association of
Petroleum Geologists. University officials and recent graduates say there is a bidding war for new recruits, with
companies offering signing bonuses of $5,000 to $10,000.

The overall economy has now slowed while the oil industry continues to flourish, and college enrollments in
oil-related majors have increased slightly. But those who are attracted by the money now will need four years
to graduate. After that, it may take up to 5 or 10 years for the geologists and engineers to amass the knowledge
they need to be of use to oil companies.

And for some people, money is not the issue. For all the hard work that Janice Rego put into becoming a
petroleum engineer, she is all but lost to the industry now. Raised in Dubai and witness to the wealth that oil can
create, she took the bold step of leaving home to study at Texas A&M. After pulling all-nighters in the
petroleum lab and toughing out the grueling course work, she was convinced when she graduated in 1997 that
she wanted to be an engineer.

Ms. Rego returned home, eager to apply her knowledge. But after only a few days working as the only woman
on an offshore platform, she left for a job onshore. Then, in 1998, the price of oil fell to less than $10 a barrel;
with layoffs looming, she quit the industry entirely. She returned to the United States to get a master's degree in
business administration and is now a junior oil analyst at the New York offices of Dresdner Kleinwort
Wasserstein, a European investment bank.

"I was the guinea pig, and I didn't want to go through that," Ms. Rego said, referring to her experience as a
woman on an offshore rig. "Oil was all about learning and I didn't feel like I was learning that much."



The labor market is squeezing the oil industry just as it faces enormous pressure to produce. The United States
consumes 25 percent of the world's energy, and despite the sluggish economy, demand for oil and natural gas
continues to grow. Oil and gas companies are increasing their exploration and production budgets. And they
look forward to President Bush's campaign to open federal lands to further production. But domestic
production may not improve significantly, in part because of the dearth of workers.

Oil-field service companies, which provide the equipment and services for drilling, are turning down work
because of a lack of trained rig crews, industry executives and analysts said. The problems of these businesses,
in turn, can delay the projects of the major oil companies.

BJ Services, a $4.8 billion Houston company that pumps cement to shore up the walls of oil wells, has had to
turn down work because of a shortage of workers. The company has recently been hiring 50 to 60 people a
month, but that still has not been enough to tackle all the available work, said Jeff Smith, director for business
development.

At other oil-field service companies, the lost opportunities are more subtle, though still noticeable. Cooper
Cameron makes undersea equipment needed in offshore drilling. Like its competitors, it faces a shortage of
engineers in some specialties. The experts in the field are retiring, and few have come along to replace them,
said Mr. Erikson, Cooper Cameron's chairman.

"The number of projects you can do at any one time is limited," he said. "If we had more people, we would do
more projects. There are large projects that are deepwater driven, so you have to be very selective about the
projects that you want to do. You just can't go after everything like you did in the early 80's."



Companies are now looking for ways to attract people fast, and they have had some success at the rig level.
The answer, in most cases, is money. Nabors Industries, one of the largest oil-field service companies, has
increased entry-level pay from 1999 by almost 40 percent, to $16.38 an hour from $11.49.

The lowest-salary employees at Global Marine are roustabouts, who get $30,000 a year, full benefits and a
bonus of 3 to 5 percent of their annual pay. But the company had trouble finding good people within the "shore
economy" to work on their offshore rigs. So over the last year, the company hired a former Marine captain to
recruit among people preparing to leave the Marine Corps, Army airborne units, or the Navy's nuclear
submarine fleet.

Jon Marshall, chief operating officer of Global Marine, said people with military experience are sought out
because they are accustomed to physical work and are often more mature and responsible than those coming
out of the local "shore" economy.

While the company is satisfied with the caliber of its new employees, it has had to increase its safety budget by
26 percent, to about $14.5 million, because of the large number of inexperienced people on the rigs, Mr.
Marshall said.

Indeed, safety is probably the greatest concern on rigs as more new people come on board, industry executives
said. The number of accidents has not climbed, but most companies are spending more to keep the platforms
safe.

"The problem is that you have inefficient crews, maybe because you're shifting one or two members from an
existing crew onto a new one and the rest are green," said Wesley N. Maat, an oil industry analyst at Dresdner
Kleinwort Wasserstein. "These crews are like a seasoned baseball team, with their own rhythm, their own
karma. They work well together, except this is a much more dangerous game.

"Because what's at risk is your fingers, your life, and hundreds of thousands of dollars in equipment and
investments. There's no way on this earth that you can replicate a rig hand with 15 years' experience, despite all
the technological advances in the industry."

Well, Orville, I could say a lot about the Masons.
However, I won't because I don't want my "code pulled"!

Turnaround: that internal support mechanism for the dollar is a good simple illustration of a complex phenomenon.
"I've got mine, Jack"...(smile) Jack replies: "Good luck, Joe! with those papers that say you're a millionaire!"

Thought for the day (mine anyway):

"Do you know
Where you're goin' to....?

Do you like
The things that life is showin' you...?

Do you know....?"

Sierra

Thank you for the post of Alan Greenspan's thoughts. As I have said, this is not a stupid man. I don't understand why people curse him so. He is in charge of a failing currency. He did not cause it to fail. He did not separate it from gold. He did not create the Federal Reserve. These things were done by others. What do you want the man to do? At this point his hand is pretty much forced and he does what he has to. He has one tool, interest rates, and it is not working. He knows what's coming. I think people just want to blame someone and he is high profile so they blame him. The truth is, there is very little he could have done.

I would not blame Greenspan for others mistakes. My point of contention about the man is his constant(self-admitted) obfuscation about very fundamental changes that should be made. If he REALLY believed what he says, a person of honour will ALWAYS, PUBLICLY state his position/philosophy without muttering/using arcane speech patterns to 'confuse' the general uneducated public. If he believes there should be a gold standard then he should be yelling it from the treetops in VERY CLEAR language. Every chance he gets. A man in his position who says "no one would listen" is a joke. That is a pathetic excuse. EVERYONE WOULD LISTEN. That is what he/they fear.

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/3020016/default.htmlThanks for that Saturday repost, Sir Stranger. (URL above -- msg#: 57270))

To anyone who hasn't read it yet, I suggest they do so. In the process, they will see Mr. Greenspan say such words as follows:

--- "In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value..."----

However, it is helpful to put this commentary of his in the right context. Alan wrote this in the mid 1960's, and I can assure you, we've both done a fair bit of growing up in the past three and a half decades, with thoughts and opinions that have changed along with the world around us.

Back in the mid-Sixties, when this was written, the U.S. was on an international gold exchange standard as a product of the post-WWII Bretton Woods treaty (1944). The international agreement pegged the dollar money at a fixed exchange standard with one thrity-fifth of an ounce of physical gold. And for the next thirty years, the world wheeled and dealed with an ever-growing quantity of dollar credits. The quantity of gold in the U.S. Treasury vaults that supposedly "backed" these dollar credits only slowly (relatively speaking) moved from account to account. And because of the exchange rate peg, what the gold certainly did NOT do was rise in exchange-rate value against the dollar credits, even though the gold supply was not expanding at near the pace the dollar supply was expanding. Meanwhile, the average price of nearly everything else was doubling due to the dollar inflation.

Also, it is important for you to bear in mind that in the mid-Sixties when Alan wrote this commentary, it was illegal for Americans to own gold bullion.

The fixed-exchange "gold standard" did not put the brakes on the creation of new dollar credit money, but only served to tie down gold's free market value. By "decree", for as long as the gold exchange standard could be kept in place, gold was doomed to mirror the market value that the inflating dollar was suffering.

Since then, the structure of the world has changed, and Alan and I have both grow up in an environment that has given us many new things to think about and consider. Clearly, that last effort at a gold standard failed to meet its objectives for a stable monetary system with stable prices. It also obscured the value of gold. Because of this, even if it had be lawful for Americans to own and save gold, the attachment of gold to dollars via the "gold standard" would STILL have made it impossible for them to protect their savings from the effects of the monetary inflation. Bear in mind, it was the dollar supply that was inflating, not the gold supply.

If Alan were to rewrite this commentary today, it would look considerably different. With thirty-five additional years of age, experience, and a more fully evolved financial landscape, he would see that the solution to the problem for savers would have to be founded upon a sturdy base of free market gold -- a gold wealth standard.

Well said. Good point. Whatever the outcome of the credit spiral one will rue the day they did not buy physical gold at these prices.

I understand what you want him to do, but I don't think he is capable. Some men are great communicators, others are not. Our illustrious ex-president is an example of the former. He can talk his way into or out of anything. But I wouldn't give you 2 cents for the man. Many politicians are great communicators. It allows them to run for office and get into power. Once they're in office, it's psychopath city. Other types of men are deep thinkers, very intellectual. But they couldn't communicate well enough to tell you what time it is. They may be better with the written word. I think this characterizes Greenspan. His job is not communications and in fact none of the Fed chairmen that I have seen were great communicators. You have to choose men who are appropriate for the job and for Fed chairmen, communications is not part of the job description.

Some people have a high opinion of Alan Greenspan. Some people believe that the use of complicated word patterns and little used terminology equates to brilliance. He may very well be quite intelligent. However, I prefer "Honesty." If he is willing to shelve ethics and honesty in order to maintain a place in history, then I have no respect for the man. His testimony before the Senate (Humphrey-Hawkins) is an absolute waste of time. He is the star monkey chattering away before an audience of apes. These clowns in the Senate sit glassy-eyed and with mouths agape while he chirps, and then they heap praise upon him knowing full well that they did not understand a single utterance. He purposely refuses to answer "yes" or "no" to the most simplistic questions. He should come clean with the American people - he should clearly and cogently explain what he and the central bankers are doing and why - He won't, it does not require great communication skills, and therefore I see no honor in the man. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Sierra Madre (07/01/01; 12:30:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 57282)
Orville Goldenbacher...the Masons

"Turnaround: that internal support mechanism for the dollar is a good simple illustration of a complex phenomenon."

Yes, I was using everyday examples to illustrate a game-theroetic/complex/dynamical system.

"I've got mine, Jack"...(smile) Jack replies: "Good luck, Joe! with those papers that say you're a millionaire!"

The drivers accept the daily road conditions as a given reality, not really thinking about the cliff just past yonder rise. The NASDAQ crash illustrates.

Tree in the Forest (07/01/01; 13:22:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 57283)
The Stranger
"Thank you for the post of Alan Greenspan's thoughts. As I have said, this is not a stupid man. I don't understand why people curse him so. He is in charge of a failing currency. He did not cause it to fail. He did not separate it from gold. He did not create the Federal Reserve. These things were done by others. What do you want the man to do? At this point his hand is pretty much forced and he does what he has to. He has one tool, interest rates, and it is not working. He knows what's coming. I think people just want to blame someone and he is high profile so they blame him. The truth is, there is very little he could have done."

Just so. Mr Greenspan also has to operate in the real world like all the rest of us. He is probably familiar with the pattern of mysterious deaths of presidents (McKinley, Garfield, Lincoln, Kennedy) and Congressmen (McFadden, Patman (?), McDonald, etc) that fight the Fed. Maybe that's where the expression originated.


Randy (@ The Tower) (07/01/01; 14:50:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 57285)
Gold and Economic Freedom -- by Alan Greenspan

"Since then, the structure of the world has changed, and Alan [Greenspan] and I have both grow up in an environment that has given us many new things to think about and consider. Clearly, that last effort at a gold standard failed to meet its objectives for a stable monetary system with stable prices. It also obscured the value of gold. Because of this, even if it had be lawful for Americans to own and save gold, "

Sir Randy, it has always been lawful for Americans to own, use save and trade with gold. This is what Mr. Greenspan is referring to with "...stands as a protector of property rights". Property rights, as you know, are the foundation of inalienable human rights. A person without any property rights is called a "slave". The reason these rights are inalienable is as simple and sublime a tautology as E=MC^2:

There is no prior Grantor for the Grantor of these rights.
Alternatively, if one believes in a Prime Grantor, the same logic holds.

Our original and organic law in these parts (the USA), the Declaration of Independence and subsequent Constitution, simply acknowleges this a priori fact. Therefore, fiats, decrees, delegations of authority on the part of Congress, redefinitions of critical legal terms such as "person" and so forth are nullius juris, of no legal force. This is also
called "color of law", as noted in Reginald Howe's case.


"If Alan were to rewrite this commentary today, it would look considerably different. With thirty-five additional years of age, experience, and a more fully evolved financial landscape, he would see that the solution to the problem for savers would have to be founded upon a sturdy base of free market gold -- a gold wealth standard."

I am *still* not convinced that gold and fraud-currency can circulate together in a stable monetary system. I've read all of Aristotle, Trail Guide and Another, your debates with ET, and so on. If gold is not used for daily transactions, electronically or otherwise, held as 100% backing in a warehouse, then it seems to me it cannot obtain its full monetary premium and therefore cannot be a stable savings vehicle. It willl still be subject to inflation/deflation of the unlawful-currency supply.

The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists (government bureaucrats) to use the banking system as an unlimited expansion of credit. In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation... Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the 'hidden' confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process." - Alan Greenspan.

Randy, You and TG seem to be advocating a 'Commodity Gold' that cannot be 'alienated' I am suggesting Gold floating free as an international currency, say in coins that stipulate weight and purity, not fiat value, on their face. We could call then Gaeas! And,as much as I agree with much of ORO's take on all this, I can't seem to cull out exactly what system of gold exchange he is proposing.

How about you or ORO or TG describing these three alternatives in a way that they can be compared and contrasted. Without the whys and wherefores, just the mechanics!

This is what angers/confuses me most about the man, is that he could write one of the most lucid documents about freedom and the 'American Way' ever written, and on the other hand do nothing in 13 years that remotely approaches the philosophical integrity of the document. Every time I read it I get inspired. Every school child should recite it. Yet, in my 10 years of following this subject ,I've seen nothing to indicate he is anything but one of the biggest 'statists' the world has ever seen.

It is called selling out for a price. Sellin out for public adulation and a few bucks. I have a hard time believing that this is the same Rand-Objectivist Greenspan that wrote about freedom and "honest" money. Cheers!

- Black Blade

That was a very good article and quite true. They won't get many new workers either. Even though many are abandoning mining for the petroleum patch. Most of today's petroleum workers have had to suffer through the Boom-Bust cycle and have lost everything. Why would they want to do that over and over? The same is happening with mining. The Boom towns of Northern Nevada are good examples. Look at the towns of Elko, Ely, Winnemucca, and Tonopah. They are fast becoming ghost towns while large miners go belly-up. These poor people are trapped into high mortgages with falling real estate values. In some places people can buy homes for pennies on the dollar. This does not bode well for these mining companies when metals and minerals prices rebound and they can't recruit experienced or willing employees.

In the oil and gas patch many companies have set up recruiters outside of prisons looking for workers. Many new employees are likely to be felons. The reason is quite simple. It is the culture of the easy buck. Working in petroleum on drill rigs and in the oil field is not easy work and it does not pay as well as many other jobs. Again, the Boom-Bust cycle in petroleum has resulted in few experienced workers willing to go through the cycle of losing everything that they worked for when the cycle goes from Boom to Bust. One can not blame them. Costs for energy will have to go higher - much higher in order to attract workers to give it "one more try." It now looks as if petroleum prices are going to remain higher as the demand for energy is increasing and will likely continue to increase as the population grows and the ?New Economy" expands. Add to that the desire for clean fuels such as natural gas, and the natural gas powered "fuel cell" technology. We are entering into interesting times.

Cheers!

- Black Blade

The argument that Greenspan 'knows' what happens to those who fight the fed is even more sickening,if it is plausible.
Men ran through a hail of bullets on Omaha beach, men laid on hand grenades to save others in Italy, men laid in leech filled trenches in Gualalcanal, men dropped nuclear weapons on other men's families, men burnt alive on the decks of carriers!!! If that son%$@#@%@#ch cannot simply stand up in front of people and say what he means, without fear, in the knowledge that what he says is true, then I can see why Doug Casey refused to shake his hand. Then he is an embarassment to the human race.

What are they saying way down there? Snippit:
". . . The latest fly in the ointment for the yellow metal was US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan. When the Fed cut interest rates by just 0.25 per cent instead of 0.5 per cent, the US dollar strengthened � and gold futures were pushed lower as long positions were liquidated. . . .

. . . A footnote to the Barrick-Homestake merger: the older partner, Homestake, demonstrates that gold is a pretty safe haven when times are tough.

Anyone who bought Homestake stock just after Wall St crashed in October 1929 and held on right through the Great Depression until 1935 would over the five years have received $US128 in dividends on each share � a considerable sum in those days.

In addition, they would have enjoyed capital appreciation of 520 per cent on the value of Homestake shares, which by 1935 were worth $US495 each."

http://finance.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,2244063%255E462,00.htmlSorry, forgot the link from the previous post, herewith.
regards Murray

Well I can't vouch for Greenspan's integrity because I don't know the man personally. But that is not my point. I do know that people stupidly hang on every word they say and as a result, they are reluctant to say anything. For people like Greenspan, Duisenberg etc., every time they pass gas, the Euro tanks, the dollar tanks, the market tanks etc. etc. If I were they, I would quickly learn how to incoherently mumble too.

To all:

Need a doctrine from Gold Advocates about "which coin to acquire"(1oz .... or 1/25, Panda ..... or Krug[is it realy matters?)

Thanks

You will find a lower premium on the larger bullion coins ie 1 oz. So you save money on buying fewer larger coins than many small coins. Different coins have different premiums depending on where you are because many people prefer their native coins. Thus in the US, 1 oz Eagles cost more than 1 oz Kruggerands. You can call Centennial Precious Metals and they can give you specific prices on bullion coins.

Hi Varda

As usual asking a question results in you being asked questions. The main idea is to know why you are buying gold coins? If it is just a store of value, indeed the larger gold coins have a lower price premium.

But if you are following the TG/FOA/Another discussion, another consideration presents itself. If indeed gold goes up dramatically in $ price, it might be more difficult to sell a large coin to anyone other than a dealer. Also, If the dollar truly tanks ( gold to the $xx,xxx ) there are tax and privacy implications, since
In the US, for example, cash transactions over $10000, and in some cases $3000, must be reported to the gov.

Thus many people get a mix � some large ones, and some smaller ones. The old European coins often have a premium not too much greater than similar current bullion coins.

Hope this helps

About Greenie....that's the way the cookie crumbles....
Nice guys...finish last
Never give a sucker an even break...
The heros at Omaha Beach were the patsies. The Greenies were in Commisariat, quite comfortable and safe.

The way of the world.

There are two kinds of people:

"Sheep on the right, goats on the left".

Thus it shall ever be.

Sierra

Are you still there??

Regards,
J.

All

I would like to start a discussion of the worst possible case for gold over the next few years. What we have now is a slow burn in the perceived US dollar value of gold, but isn't by any means the worst thing that could happen ( actually, its quite nice if you are on the buy side ).

Here are some of my concerns; please, add to this list

In the US at least, we are ruled by what the public will accept, rather than any rule of law. This means it wouldn't be too hard to turn public opinion against gold. We have this ongoing war on drugs, and various invasive bank related regulations have been created to track and follow the money. It would seem to me to be a logical step to have gold cast as the outlaw money of drug dealers. Thus there might be less public outcry at what ever steps are taken to confiscate it.

Now this is a new era, and the gov has gotten more subtle than the 1930's. They don't have to take it from you by force. They can get you when you try to sell it. Especially with a high dollar gold value � if you don't report the cash sale of your $30,000 gold eagle, they have the apparatus of the IRS to use on you.

Similarly, with asset forfiture a fact, largely the gov can take illegal things with no due process or compensation.

In other words, you may have maxed out your credit cards and have your gold stash. But, it might be suprisingly difficult to sell the one coin to pay off your debts.

This is not just an abstract, couldn't-ever-really-happen exercise. I have spoken to friends from South Africa. For years there were restrictions on the gold coins they could take out of the country. But jewelry was ok. They had me laughing with the descriptions of some of the proof-link size gold chain some people where taking!

Hi Sir Randy,

You suggested that after 35 years of experience, Greenspan may have changed his mind about the gold standard.

However there was a story posted here in the last month or so claiming that a reporter, managing to cite Greenspan one of his old more radical pro-gold statements from his "former life," asked him if he'd change anything he had said, Greenspan was reported to have replied something like, "Not one word."

Regards,
Journeyman

Nasdaq 2,160.54 + Dow 10,502.40 = 12,662.94 divide by 2 = 6331.47 ponzi
Up 11.76 from last week

No link tonight because my computer is not working.
I'm using Mrs. $hifty's computer and she has very few gold sites in here.

Sir RossL: thanks for the link even though I cant provide it tonight.

I have a hunch we may see fireworks this week.

<:-)

$hifty

Thank you both.

http://www.prudentbear.com/credit.htmHi Journeyman!!!!

Journeyman (07/01/01; 20:40:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 57305)
Greenspan's change of mind @Randy

"However there was a story posted here in the last month or so claiming that a reporter, managing to cite Greenspan one of his old more radical pro-gold statements from his "former life," asked him if he'd change anything he had said, Greenspan was reported to have replied something like, "Not one word.""

I remember seeing that as well. He can and does speak quite frankly on occasion, particularly when Ron Paul questions him.

Sierra Madre, I've got mine, to be sure, but we do share some of it as well.

http://www.prudentbear.com/credit.htm
The Credit Bubble Bulletin - by Doug Noland
June 29, 2001

"...I think much of the current misconception is related to the fact that the consensus views financial system developments over this long expansion as very much a "natural" progression, benefiting tremendously from the consequences of innovation, deregulation and "free markets." Seeing things in a similar vein to "real economy" technological improvements and advancement, the contemporary U.S. financial sector is indeed a "new and improved" model - "the latest and greatest," much like the most recent Intel Pentium processor, Dell PC, or Cisco router. And just like we would not open up the back of a computer to try to understand its components, the bullish consensus seems to have little interest in digging into the intricacies of this most complex financial system. Instead of seeing a "wildcat" system spewing uncontrolled money and credit excess wherever it can make a quick buck, there is blind faith in a sophisticated and "efficient" financial apparatus "effectively" allocating "capital." And while we nervously ponder the ramifications of faltering liquidity for a credit mechanism dominated by security issuance, derivative trading, and leveraged speculation, ideology allows others the comfort of assuming that such a wonderful unfettered "free market" financial system will by its very nature continue to operate smoothly and for the good of all society. It is not easy to have a meaningful debate with these two views operating on very different planes..."

A country such as the US that slips into corruption and ignores its own Constitution and Bill of Rights is doomed to failure, or at the very least likely to ultimately adopt a Totalitarian form of government. The Bill of Rights has been systematically declared "null and void" by the US Supreme Court. Sure, it is just a matter of semantics in many cases as defined in decisions such as those concerning the Seizure and Forfeiture Act (license to steal) signed into law by Daddy Bush. The Forth and Fifth amendments for example are simply ignored and it is now legal for law enforcement and the judicial system to engage in theft and perjury. That is why gold as insurance is more necessary than ever. Gold can be hidden and transported fairly easily. It can cross borders and be used just about anywhere. If it becomes necessary to leave the US for another place to reside, gold could be of more use than the USD. Let's face it, the US border is quite porous and unhindered travel to Canada, US, and Caribbean (and central-south America for that matter). Gold has been used by various peoples to gain their passage to freedom in the past and probably will be useful for such again. Think of those in National Socialist Europe in the 1930's and 1940's, and more recently those in the Balkans who bought passage to freedom with gold. Who knows what the future holds and that alone is a reason to hold gold.

What the USG doesn't know, won't hurt you. Cheers!

- Black Blade

>Black Blade (06/30/01; 16:52:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 57265)
RE: Canuck

We also no longer see or hear from many posters from days gone by. Aristotle is one. Others include Aragorn III, Koan, North of 49, etc. We rarely hear from Turbohawg, flierdude, Y2K, and many others. I am sure some lurk while others are caught up in other affairs. Maybe these guys will drop in to say hello occasionally. Cheers!<

Hello occasionally ! Sorry. Thanks for the thought. Yes, still lurking out here with more to say than I'm willing to take the time to write down. Lately, I've been enjoying all the good debate and good humor provided by the Forum (I wonder if RossL is still with us).

Took a leave from the internet and posting nearly two years ago coincident with a leave from reading the paper everyday or watching the news. That worked out so well that when I resumed my cyber travels, I chose not to resume participating in on-line discussions other than to make an occasional observation or comment. I still don't watch the news and my newspaper delivery was cut to weekends only. Political activities have been sharply curtailed as well. Three months ago I was downsized out of my job.

Damn I feel good !

Speaking of observations, I've noted your recent expectation of Bush to get Hoover-ized. Two years ago I was thinking the exact same thought. Now I'm not so sure. In fact, I'm thinking this time will be different. My reasoning is based on a couple of (related) factors. Let me run this by you.

One factor is the trend of things now vs then. The years preceding Hoover were marked by a trend toward growing Marxist influence in this country and around the world. For instance, our central bank was created, unions were gaining strength (and with Hoover's direct involvement), communism and fascism were taking root elsewhere, etc.

Today is different. The left reached its pinnacle of success (if you want to call it that) in the mid-60s with the Great Society and the rejection of Barry Goldwater's constitutionalism. Since then, the predictable failures of such a flawed ideology and morality have become apparent to a growing number of people, with the Democratic Party largely reduced to a group of extremists as leftist as any political party in the world. Despite relentless assaults on his character, Reagan's consistent message of freedom (if lacking in substantial action) was popular. The Republican �94 takeover of Congress caught the left and its media trumpeteers by complete surprise. At the same time, the Republican Party is now recognizing that they would still have control of Congress if LP candidates had not drawn a considerable number of votes in certain Congressional races. Recent articles have pointed out that Bush has surrounded himself with a considerable number of libertarians and libertarian-conservatives (much to the writers dismay, but which suggest that he's at least getting some good counsel; now if only he can make good decisions.) Freer trade is breaking out across the world in spite of govt attempts to extort and profit from it through so-called free trade agreements. The ECB had to use the deception of gold backing to help legitimize the introduction of another fiat currency. In a more general sense, there is widespread distrust of government throughout the world. Clearly, the forces of freedom are growing in momentum.

A second factor is the influence of cycles. The more I (casually and for fun) study them, the more I see them playing out in various aspects of life. Short, intermediate, and long term cycles are always in play, sometimes working in concert as they converge and other times working against each other as they diverge. The stock market provides a great lab for those who do serious cycle work as it quantifies cycles. George Lindsay was a master. His analysis of market, social, and political cycles of varying lengths provides some incredible insights into how to use upcoming cycle intervals to help anticipate change. Among his many discoveries were 36 and 40 year cycles +/- one year. At the completion of a cycle of such length as counted from what Lindsay termed an emotional agitation (or physical agitation such as a rebellion), the winner of the previous agitation often suffers a serious setback as the loser regains ground. If the Great Society's triumph over freedom properly qualifies as an emotional agitation, then at around the 40 year interval we can expect the forces of statism to take a real hit. Other cyclic factors indicate that any such transistion will come with great difficulty.

Interestingly, Martin Armstrong's Princeton Economic Institute has predicted that one of America's two major parties will fail in 2004. What if history has set the Democratic Party up to create its own demise with its recent takeover of the Senate ? Bush might even come out looking like a strong, liberty-loving leader. Ha !

There is much more cycle evidence to bolster this line of thinking that is intentionally being left out to limit the length of this post. And pinpointing exact time frames for dramatic change as opposed to slow change requires analysis of the interplay of various cycles. Also note that this reflects only *my interpretation of the varying possibilities * derived from Lindsay's work as applied to today and I'll readily concede that there is no lack of wishful thinking involved.

Hey, your continuing reports on the energy situation are appreciated, Black Blade, and especially your witty perspective of those reports.

hAug

Good to see you here. The reason I think that George Dubya will be Hooverized is that the system is broken. The mechanics who are needed to fix the system just aren't around anymore. The two parties are more interested in bickering and scuttling each others plans to solve problems and crises for political mileage. There is a reason Bubba put off-limits much of the most prospective land positions from exploration and production of energy and mineral resources. That reason is to suck up to extremists environmentalists and to sandbag the economy so that the opposition could be blamed. We also came to the end of the easy money cycle with the demise of the Tech and Dot-Bomb manias as investors began to understand the folly of extreme equity valuations. There are many other reasons, but these tend to stand out.

Over the next few years the energy crisis will slowly squeeze the economy (slow burn) as new natural gas-fired power plants are built and then the industry and government realizes that these power plants actually need natural gas for fuel - oops! Then electricity prices will really begin to rise significantly. From my contacts in the petroleum industry they all see it happening, however, they are content to just let the crisis build momentum. After all, they are vilified as robber barons and not allowed to pursue developing the energy supply necessary to avoid economic disaster. They have been lonely voices in the wilderness crying out that there are serious problems on the horizon. We are approaching "Interesting" times.

Don't wait so long to visit again - Cheers!

- Black Blade

Gosh, I thought that end of June was decision time for discovery or dismissal of Mr. Howes lawsuit.Do you know what is the current status? Maybe this is all just conjecture since everyone knows the cabal can buy all the judges in any court system in the US of A.

Let it be said that ever since the US Congress pissed all over the 10th Amendment,our citizens lost their freedom.We shall never retrieve it again without throwing the bastards out. If you truly believe in America, how it was founded,the bill of rights, and your personal liberty, you will never again vote for an incumbent.

re I have no idea how you arrived at the assumption that the war debt owed to the US was satisfied in its entirity.
There was only one nation, Norway to the best my recollection that paid the debt, no other even paid the interest. It was eventually written off.

In the late 60s and early 70s, Charles DeGaule attempted to convert bonds to gold while France still owed its entire debt. I was a young adult with a family so I have no problem remembering the animosity this created, especially among the generation who had liberated France.

The analogy quote: It is tanamount to buy brand new furniture while sending your old one (against payment x interest for sure)to your neighbor after you have broken everything in his house: unquote, is not only insulting but totally discredits your post.

As I recall, and I am old enough to do just that, we entered the war after Hitler had already accomplished the deed for which you choose credit the US.

Your effort toward sarcasm in response my own would have been effective had it had anything to do with context.

I participate in this forum because of my interest in gold, I am however a realist. Your statement: quote "I would be happy to comply provided you send me back your gold that so many of you despise. If I was Chinese, I could deplete your vaunted gold stock in 24 hours flat." unquote

Why would I send you my gold because someone else despises it? How would your nationality affect your ability to deplete the US gold supply? If you presently possess the means of accomplishing the act, how would the fact that you are not Chinese affect the equation?

As far as US benevolence, I do not believe in it at the present time either. The focus of every policy is now wealth power or both, not only in this nation but world wide. The leaders (and I use the term with trepidation) under which most of us live, are doing far more damage to their citizenry than the actions of any foreign government.

This was not true at the time of World War II. Perhaps you and many others of the present generation do not appreciate the real danger and just how close Europe, the Balkans, Scandanavia, and Great Britain were to being conquored.
There are very few historians, if any, that will dispute the fact that sans US production capacity and military power projected at considerable cost of American lives, the map of the present world would look considerably different.

If you believe the US to be a rutless taskmaster, envision the world under the SS.

Which brings us back to the analogy in my post of the western movie script. Once the man with the gun saves the day, his hero persona soon vanishes, to be replaced with abhorrance.

re I am not thin skinned, brissling at every criticizm of the US. Much of it is warranted, and if you have followed my post of the last two years you are well aware of the fact that I have leveled my share.

I am very thin skinned when it comes to the discounting of the supreme sacrifice made by average Americans, who willingly interrupted their lives only to be buried in cemetaries around the world.

Good day

Perplexed

Actually it was Finland that repaid its War Debt to the US (with interest!). I have to agree that it is a sad commentary when we think of all the sacrifice by many in the name of freedom and patriotism, that our rulers have such a stranglehold on the country that they can subvert the Constitution and line their pockets without fear. I don't necessarily think that it is all apathy, but rather a knowledge that we the people, the serfs, are really powerless to stop them. All three branches of government appear to be bought and paid for. Gold tucked away somewhere safe provides a bit of economic freedom.

Cheers!

- Black Blade

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2001/07/01/state2015EDT0165.DTL&type=news
Snippit:

The operator of the state's power grid has acknowledged that it was responsible for swings in production at a power plant that Gov. Gray Davis held as an example of price gouging by out-of-state energy companies. The Los Angeles Times and Charlotte Observer reported Sunday that the California Independent System Operator told its oversight board that records showed Duke Energy was following orders to help balance the grid -- not seeking to drive up prices.

Black Blade: "Red" Davis should own up and tell the Grasshoppers that he lied to them. However, being a politician, we know that he will never do that. The ISO had more to do with the higher charges as they ordered the operation of some older closed power plants that had to implement multiple high cost start up and shut down operations during the state's peak energy load periods. Meanwhile the state is allowing the construction of natural gas "peaker" plants. There is no provision for finding the extra NG however. There are more "server farms" being built and coming online than there is sufficient new energy to power them. About one new "server farm" comes online every week, and each requires about as much energy as a small city. "Red" and his buddies had better kick it into high gear. "Interesting Times" indeed.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2001/07/01/state1819EDT0153.DTL&type=news
Snippit:

California businesses and residents cut electricity use by 12 percent in June compared with the same period last year, state officials said Sunday -- proof, they said, that the governor's plan for coping with a tight power supply is working. "The people of California are speaking very loudly and very effectively," S. David Freeman, senior energy adviser to Gov. Gray Davis, said Sunday in a conference call with reporters.

Black Blade: Now if a heat wave rolls in, I wonder if the Grasshoppers will turn on the air conditioners or sit in sweltering ovens. Hmmm� I think I know the answer.

http://albany.bcentral.com/albany/stories/2001/07/02/story5.htmlSnippit:
"Long Island Power Authority will connect 75 fuel cells from Latham-based Plug Power Inc. (Nasdaq: PLUG) to its electric grid at its West Babylon substation.

It is part of a $7 million program aimed at demonstrating how fuel-cell technology may generate electricity for residential customers.

Site planning is under way and construction is expected to start in July, LIPA said.

The fuel cells being made by Plug are expected to produce more than 1 million kilowatt hours of electricity--enough to power about 100 average-size homes--over the duration of the five-year program. . . ."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Archive/Article/0,4273,4213511,00.html
Snippit:

The complete isolation of the United States on the issue of climate change moved a step closer yesterday when Europe, Japan and Russia ended a meeting in the Hague saying they wanted to complete the deal to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

Black Blade: Curious isn't it? Even these critics of the US position on the Kyoto Accords won't even sign on to the treaty. Only Romania has signed. Even Australia has backed off and sided with the US. We await to see if these other countries are serious enough to sign on while the US isn't so easily duped.

Black Blade thank you for the correct information. You are righ't it is not apathy. We are in the midst of change that few people are prepared to handle. Governments around the world are coming apart at the seams for the simple reason that the human race has matured, governments haven't.
People are tired of having things happen too them.
Of being forced into situations that affect their very lives and welfare, while being denied the opportunity of peaceful participation in the process.

In this context, in my opinion the European "leaders" are constructing a human bomb and by removing their currency, denying last vistage of their nationality. And we in the US have several bombs just awaiting the match.

As far as the oil fields, I was born in Wichita Falls Texas at the apex of the oil boom, when the Burkburnett field was creating millionairs daily. I was raised in Lubbock, just on the edge of the Snyder, Midland and Odessa fields.

Had a good friend that was a Tool Pusher in Midland, and a younger brother who worked on a swabbing rig one summer. I had a boss that had changed jobs after a fall from the derrick into a slush pit. A co worker that changed after being released from the hospital as the result of a fall through a derrick, and another that got his hand crushed when a stack of casing shifted.

I somehow missed the "opportunity" of working in the fields. At the time, comparetively, the roustabout job paid very good wages, especially for an inexperienced young man with no inkling at to the danger.

Good night B.B and thanks again for the commentaries.

Perplexed

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Archive/Article/0,4273,4213864,00.html
Special report: George Bush's America

Snippit:

America, the world's biggest producer of greenhouse gases, is polluting the planet on a greater scale than ever before. Official figures show its emissions of carbon dioxide - the main contributor to global warming - are accelerating rapidly, while other industrialised countries are cutting their output.

Black Blade: Another critical article on the US Kyoto Accords from the land of Hoof and Mouth disease. If the Thames River was in the US, it would qualify as an EPA Super Fund Site. Interestingly, the US has a better record of cleaning up the environment than Europe and more land by percentage set aside for wilderness preservation. The science(?) of global warming is debatable as to whether man has any meaningful influence on greenhouse gas contributions. The recent eruption of the Mayon volcano in the Philippines has contributed more greenhouse gases than man will this year, and it still is ejecting gas. - Oh my! We must "put out" the World's volcanoes before we have more greenhouse gas put into the atmosphere! Can't put water on it as evaporation also is a contributor of greenhouse gas. We must stop evaporation too! We just got to change the laws of physics and the laws of nature - maybe we should sign a treaty ;-)

Golden Dreams All!

Perplexed - Interesting account of your proximity to the petroleum biz. Take care!

View Yesterday's Discussion.

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?uOne more thing - Asian markets looks down right ugly tonight! Nikkei gets a drubbing - down by 223 points!

I summarized my approach a few weeks back, a couple of months ago, and a set of suggestions going back a couple of years.

My first choice is "No System". The market participants chose whatever they want.

The key choice is not to have a central bank, and not to have regulation of banking (at least not as it regards reserve ratios, leverage, interest rates, credit quality, etc..). Even Jack Kemp recognizes that the Fed should not be in the business of setting interest rates. Unfortunately, his suggested solution is not quite realistic since this Hayek-ian idea assumes that gold trading freely without participation of central banks in the gold market, but with all manipulation on the currency side alone will succeed in spite of the currency risk (for a downward gold price) being eliminated.

At this juncture, we have to conceed that the downfal of a gold fixed par currency is that holding gold bears no risk, while holding currency does. Thus without a central bank to supply gold to the market and withdraw it according to market requirements to sustain the fixed par for any given short term interest rate, the currency is set on a terminal glide towards a pure market preference for conducting business entirely in gold. Thus par must break, no matter how well the central bank manages its business.

Furthermore, if gold were simply made into a legal tender along with a currency, then the currency system would slowly attrophy as gold gains two fewer bid-ask transactions in conversion of currency to gold and vice versa for paying a debt, making for an advantage in contract denomination in gold (more stable real values, and even better stability with no central bank playing in the gold markets), and transactions in gold.

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20010701/wl/philippines_volcano_25.html
Snippit:

LEGAZPI, Philippines (AP) - The Mayon volcano is rumbling and emitting dense gas clouds, signs it will likely explode again within a week, potentially with enough force to trigger an eruption that threatens villages at its base, scientists said Sunday. An explosion could come between Monday and next weekend, said Ed Laguerta, chief volcanologist at the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology.

The Mayon volcano blew ash nine miles into the air and shot red hot boulders 2,000 feet high when it erupted June 24. On Friday, it erupted twice, but with considerably less force, blasting ash just over a mile into the air. ``Magma is rising easier and letting out gas,'' Laguerta said Sunday after reviewing the latest data on the rumbling mountain.

Black Blade: Stop that gas! That CO2 will blow a hole in the ozone! And all this after Mt. Pinatubo last year. And that's just the Philippines.


Good Night!

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010701/n01247023.htmlHomestake deal shows Barrick's weakness - Barron's

"Sanford Bernstein mining analyst John Tumazos...

... rates the stock at underperform given the company's ``premium valuation to its peer group,'' according to the Barron's article."

Once again, last weeks Fed meeting got the customary top billing & media fanfare as the most significant economic event of the week. For as long as I can remember, we have been led to beleve that this dedicated group of quasi government servants always has our interests and the best interests of our nation's economy at heart. But is this true?

I penned the following lines a few years ago and think they apply to this situation.

"Ski's conclusion: Egypt, China, Greece, Rome, France, Spain, England ..... empires that have fallen ..... but why? I conclude that the vast majority of the 'seeds of destruction' of an advanced civilization are rooted in the DIVISION OF LABOR. As civilizations mature, only cobblers have the knowledge to make shoes, only farmers are experienced at making hay, only mechanics have the requirements to repair cars, only doctors are licensed to treat diseases, only the religious leaders possess the know-how to talk to God, only lawyers are certified to deal with the laws they have created, and only politicians have the expertise to govern. Because of the DIVISION OF LABOR, the greater tendency is to mostly do what you are specially qualified, educated, regulated or licensed to do. The result is that we then necessarily and voluntarly, disassociate ourselves from the activites & interests of others & transition onto a new course of preserving our own agenda. The resulting paradox is that in a specialized society, relatively few people know what you are actually up to, whether you are doing a good job, or if your actions are productive, counter-productive, or downright harmful to others in your very own society. The final outcome is that members of the advanced civilization then have the capacity to conceal their incompetence, hide their real agenda, line their own pockets, and generally preserve their own self interests to the detriment of others ..... right up until the final day of the inevitable social collapse. In the case of politicians, until the very last penny has been squandered, the vault is empty and the enemy is at the gate .... after it's too late to fix the problem."

So ..... whether it's the Fed, the CEO of Firestone Tire, your favorite politician or the unionized assembly line worker next door ... I never put too much stock in what these entities are PRETENDING to do for me! Instead, a lot of silver and a little gold should do just nicely!

Many thanks for the reply.
I'm trying to focus on that last paragraph regarding the atrophy of the currency in respect to gold. It seems that the quantity of 'buying rights, extant in the currency of the system, is so great in terms of the gold float that an equilibrium would occur at some point of gold/fiat ratio. Aragorn and I had a long back and forth on this back in the early days. I might resurrect those posts.

What I'm looking for is the similarities or differences between your descriptions and my concept of Gold coins minted by any source qualified to certify weight and purity, exchanged for any currency in a wol-wide market entity, and having its buying power determined by free-market pricing of goods and services against that gold. I think we are on "the same page" on this but it's also way past my 'thinking time' tonight.

Thanks again -- Peter

The tooth-picks propping up my eye-lids are buckling. (:-0

� it's interesting (to me anyway) to consider the recent debate at the Forum in a cyclical context.

Communism and fascism, the more radical extremes of collectivism, have been rejected the world over as proven failures. But collectivism itself has not yet, as reflected in the continued existence of socialistic govts and the fiat schemes necessary to prop them up. The idea of individualism, liberty, and honest money remains anathema to politicians and bureaucrats.

It's no wonder that those who have studied the relationship between money and freedom shared similar views toward the pro-fiat, if-you-can't-beat�em-then-join�em euro stance endorsed here, which undoubtedly is seen as a contemporary, Third Way equivalent of �better red than dead�, and were quick to point out its flaws. The euro effort appears to be statism's last stand � or attempt at a last stand. Therefore, no opportunity to repudiate and cast out the oppressors of the world should be lost as failure could mean a resurgence of leftist control until the next cycle interval comes around years ahead.

If the debate were allowed to continue straight up, many would likely find comforting the analysis and input of ET, ORO and other knowledgeable posters who have committed their time to illustrate how the euro scheme will ultimately fail sooner or later due to the mechanics of the overwhelming market forces which are already collapsing currencies and govts and which were created by the statists themselves in their bid to hold on to power til the end. Cycle analysis and observation of trends simply add another dimension, a dimension which seems to dovetail with market realities.

But just in case the pro-freedom side is overly optimistic or outright wrong, arm thyself !

Fortunately, access to thinkers such as Rand, Mises, Ron Paul, and many others is easier than ever, and newbies to such matters as those that were discussed here can readily find further insights if truly interested.

hAug

turbohawg (07/01/01; 21:33:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 57310)


"A second factor is the influence of cycles. The more I (casually and for fun) study them, the more I see them playing out in various aspects of life. Short, intermediate, and long term cycles are always in play, sometimes working in concert as they converge and other times working against each other as they diverge. The stock market provides a great lab for those who do serious cycle work as it quantifies cycles. George Lindsay was a master.....
If the Great Society's triumph over freedom properly qualifies as an emotional agitation, then at around the 40 year interval we can expect the forces of statism to take a real hit. Other cyclic factors indicate that any such transistion will come with great difficulty. "


Sir Turbohawg,

You may find
"The Fourth Turning (An American Prophesy)" by William Strauss and Neil Howe (1997), Broadway Books
of considerable interest. One central idea is the interval of the saeculum, or roughly one human lifetime. They speak at length about four seasons of specifically American history, the First Turning "High" (like post WWII), Second Turning "Awakening" (like 1960's spiritual upheaval), Third Turning "Unraveling" (needs no introduction), and Fourth Turning "Crisis", occuring in this order over the past several centuries.

excerpt:
Anglo-American Crises- (pp 43)

"To see the pattern best start with the present and move backward. Eighty-five years passed between the attack on Pearl Harbor and the attack on Fort Sumpter. This is exactly the same span as between Fort Sumpter and the Declaration of Independence. Add two years (to Gettysburg), and you reach President Lincoln's famous "fourscore and seven years" calculation. Back up again, and note that eighty-seven years is also the period between the Declaration of Independence and the climax of the colonial Glorious Revolution.....

"Over time, American historians have built a nomenclature around these successive dates...Bruce Ackeman identifies "not one but three 'founding' moments in our history: the late 1780's, the late 1860's, and the mid 1930's""


Although the Federal Reserve Act was passed Dec 23rd, 1913, the Federal Reserve Bank did not actually start operations until 1914, four score and seven years ago.

From your previous message:

"California businesses and residents cut electricity use by 12 percent in June compared with the same period last year, state officials said Sunday -- proof, they said, that the governor's plan for coping with a tight power supply is working"

I wonder how much of the 12% is actually "the plan working" and how much is accredited to economic slowdown?

MY THOUGHTS ON GREENSPAN

I have no doubt Greenspan sold out but I think it is more complicated than that. I think the man is clearly delusional and let me explain why.

About the same time Greenspan join the Federal Government, William Simon also join the Federal as a businessman come to rescue it during the energy crisis. He couldn't. He became energy czar even through he protested he had no experence in the field. It was there he got a glimse of the inner workings of the government. The backroom dealings, the intrigue and dirty deeds done cheap.

He wrote about it in his books "A time for truth"
One thing he mentioned is a lot of other businessmen have come to Washington to save the country from potential problems only to leave in disqust. It takes a person of a
certain deviousness and power hunger to climb the political ladder and stay there for a number of years. Greenspans obviously has this quality. But here is where I explain he is delusional.

Why would an advocate of Ayn Rand go to Washington in the First place? If you remember her book Atlas Strugged, one of the main character was Franco D'Anconsta. This character thought by pretending to be a man of low even dispictable character, he could gain the trust of the collectists and with that trust destroy the system from within and after it is gone form one based on your true beliefs.

What he forgot was Rand said : You don't win by pretending to join the enemy and then trying to outsmart them. You are only playing their game and it is a game you can't win.

Also, I write and I have written about some pretty mean stuff about real life. Some who been following me must get a sense of some of evil I have encountered. There is a difference between fiction and real life. In fiction, it is a perfect valid plot device to have someone pretending to be evil but deep down is still mortally upright. In the violent world of drugs and gangs I grew up in and the real world you and I know: One of two things would happen neither of which ended up with the good guy hauling off the bad guys. If someone tried to pretend they were bad, in a fairly short time they would be faced with a situation where they would either be killed or be totally corrupted.

Let me give a scenerio. You join the police force to save lives and be a hero. And you're good and given the chance to go undercover. You join a gang. The gang memebers don't trust you but they will give you a chance to prove yourself.

In the neighborhood there's is a loudmouth noisy snitch who been dropping a dime and needs to be dealt with. You have to do the dealing! (As a little aside: The "drop-a-dime" program and "Just say no" I beleive are two of the most dangerous ways this government has found of killing innocents in a long soiled history of killing innocents. Just to be even thought of as a potential "snitch" is enough to have you and your children killed. You'll never read it in your newspaper only the government bragging how successful these programs are but I know that have been a lot of funerals because of these two harebrained schemes. My sister was telling me of a 15 year old who died last week who said no and thought to be a snitch. They had to have a close casket there was so much bullet damage.)

So you have to kill an innocent person when you wanted to save lives. What would this do to your sense of morality?
And if you didn't consent they have a bullet for you.
If killing when you wanted to save lives doesn't corrupt you. nothing will. (Actually I wouldn't say nothing, because there are far worse ways of corrupting a soul.)

(Another aside, because of this and other reasons, the police would rather arrest the people who buys marijuna for medical reasons then try tackling the crack house down the block. The dealer can either blackmail the cops and open a can of worm no one wants or if you get some new foolsih idealist cops, they not afriad to shoot it out)

Alan was out playing hero but miscalucated by not knowing the difference between fantasy and real life and because he didn't know he ended up totally corrupted. Those who arranged for him to join the Federal Reserve would have known of his writings. And very early in his career at the Fed, he would have been given him a choice where he had to prove he wasn't pretending to good along with the system
and something that would have totally blackened his soul.

Could they asked him to murder someone? Possible but I don't think so. You and I know, at the level of power and money involved at the level of the Federal Reserve, murder has been used by the powers that be. But as someone who seen even worse evil, there's a lot worse you can do to corrupt a man than to have him commit murder. And once his soul is blackened and totally corrupted, there's is no hope for the man.

So Greenie had been totally corrupted. What about his delusions of fanstasy of saving the world financal system?

It too got changed. Changed into what appears to be a sell out for public adulation. He can't save the world like Franco did but maybe he can save the stock market. Don't think for a moment that Greenspan doesn't get off everytime the press yells he has saved the stock market with another rate cut. And he has saved the stock market so many time, The yelling gets louder and more is expected of him.

Greenspan is faced with the: "What next Genius?" problem. Now I have not yet experienced it but maybe those who have known success can fill you in on more of the details. I only know it because friends tell me it has happened to them. I am trying to succeed as either a writer or musician. But my friends and mentors who have succeeded tell me:
"What next Genuis?" How do you follow up the smash novel? or the runaway Los Vegas show revue?

"What next genius?" And once you made it there will be vicious people, the same vicious people you saw knifing each other in gang wars, trying to take you down because they get an almost sexual pleasure in either killing you or taking you down? So "What next genius?"

In the case of my friends they try to find someone as ambitious and talented and other factors and help make their climb a little easier. While it might not show here, I have some incredible teachers some of the best trumpet players, science fiction and screen writer trying to help me grow.
(It helps I live in a city where the best musicians travel to buy the best made horns in the world Monettes" and screenwriters once they decide they made enoguh money in L.A. and want some green space come here to live)

But where does Greenspan find someone he can teach who is willing to save the world financal system? He can't. And even if he could would Washington corrupt that person as it did him? The best he can do is give vague warnings about irrational exturbance.

But it gets worse for Alan. Adulation of any kind is a drug. My friends have told me this. They whisper almost as if they were afraid someone would hear, they tell me of the fear that can come with Adulation.

For musicians, actors and writers, that fears comes in the warning: "You'll never eat lunch in this town again!" They are talking about the Powers-that-be in Hollywood. The studios, the networks, the deal-makers and in particular the super agents that can get everybody together. And just like there are powers behind the visable and fameriar stars

I am sure there are Powers-That-Be behind the Federal Reserve pulling Alan strings. Who are that? Your guess is as good as mine. Only the powers that be in Hollywood are exhibitionists compared to the power pulling the strings in Washington. We can only make wild eyed guesses about the power behind the throne on outcast internet sites like this.

Alan has sort of hinted at them in saying: I tried montenary reform but no one would listen. Who is he refferring to? Whoever they are, I bet
1.) They have totally corrupted him and
2.) They have him in the worse fear possible. A fear far greater than fighting in a war or the loss of life.
Megatron mentions in msg#: 57295

> The argument that Greenspan 'knows' what happens to those
> who fight the fed is even more sickening,if it is
> plausible. Men ran through a hail of bullets on Omaha
> beach, men laid on hand grenades to save others in Italy,
> men laid in leech filled trenches in Gualalcanal, men
> dropped nuclear weapons on other men's families, men burnt
> alive on the decks of carriers!!! If that son%$@#@%@#ch
> cannot simply stand up in front of people and say what he
> means, without fear, in the knowledge that what he says is
> true, then I can see why Doug Casey refused to
> shake his hand. Then he is an embarassment to the human
> race.


Since this is a gold forum I cshould bring up the role of gold. Why in the name of sanity if you're out to destroy gold select a man who has spoken for gold? I believe it is it an all out war being fought on several fronts physically, spiritually and morally. We know how with the gold carry trade gold is being destroyed physically. How do you do it spiritually and morally. Why not go after a gold avocate and destory him. Maybe I can give another example.

How many people were turned away from religion with the fall of
Jim and Tammy Bakker? How many here are disgusted with Greenspan hypnocritcy seeing how he is the leading statist?

Just like church attendance fell after the fall of Jim and Tammy, I bet a lot of people who would have been reception to the message of honest money and liberty gold can bring are turned away seeing Greenscan no longer believes.

But just because Greenspan turned away from the Gold Standard doesn't mean is won't be a good things. I hope this forum will contiunue bacuse I am trying to write how it might be possible to reestablish a gold standard and the good it will do. Only it will take time. Anyway I appreciate this formum for letting me share my thought on gold and war and other things. If you think what I have to say is worthwhile please leave me feedback.

> Black Blade (07/01/01; 16:29:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 57293)
> RE: megatron
> It is called selling out for a price. Sellin out for
> public adulation and a few bucks. I have a hard time
> believing that
> this is the same Rand-Objectivist Greenspan that wrote
> about freedom and "honest" money. Cheers!

> - Black Blade


>> megatron (07/01/01; 16:24:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 57292)
>> Black Blade/Tree
>> This is what angers/confuses me most about the man, is
>> that he could write one of the most lucid documents
>> about freedom and the 'American Way' ever written, and on
>> the other hand do nothing in 13 years that remotely
>> approaches the philosophical integrity of the document.
>> Every time I read it I get inspired. Every school child
>> should recite it. Yet, in my 10 years of following this
>> subject ,I've seen nothing to indicate he is anything but
>> one of the biggest 'statists' the world has ever seen.

http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htm
I'm here! I spent the weekend out in the woods and I'm still trying to catch up on the discussion. Thanks for your concern.

To all:
I would also like to point out that my web page carries no advertising because it is paid in full (by me) as part of the contract with my ISP. If an ad should ever pop up on there, someone please email me so that I can complain about it.

I have a limit of 5 megabytes on the page, and a few months ago I filled that up. Instead of making agonizing decisions about what to keep and what to delete, I deleted everything that was unchanged for more than 3 months, including the HBM chart page and the Another page. There was nothing personal about that decision, if anyone was wondering why those pages aren't there any more.

Gringo expatriates living here in Mexico have been amazed by the recent strength of the peso vs. U.S. dollar. A couple of years ago we were frequently getting over 10 pesos to the dollar. Devaluation to 12 or 13 pesos was thought to be imminent. Not too long ago Bob Chapman, the International Forecaster guy, was recommending a short on the peso. But yesterday the local casa de cambio was advertising only 8.80. Instead of weakening the powerful peso has strengthened by something like 12% over the last two years. At the same time the cost of living in pesos (in spite of government claims of declining price inflation) is charging ahead at about a 15% annual rate. Examples: Rent increased 33% in the last two years, bottled gas up 20%, comida corrida in local restaurants up from 40 pesos to 50 this year, a cup of coffee in a Zocalo caf� up from 8 pesos to 10 (now over a dollar and no refills!) and it goes on and on. It is standard procedure for most local businesses to automatically up their prices across the board from 10 to 15 percent in January of each year. The net effect of all this is that it is costing expats with fixed incomes in dollars a hell of a lot more dollars than it did a few years ago to maintain the same standard of living here in Mexico due to price inflation and currency fluctuations. One could say we're getting "flucked" by the floating fiat currency system.

One wonders why the previously pathetic peso has become so strong vs. the inflated dollar. Economic growth here is slowing as exports to the U.S. decrease and unemployment rises but the Mexican DOW is up like 25% this year. I read a lot of speculation as to why the peso is strong�dollar inflows from immigrants to the U.S., drug money being converted to pesos, foreign investment, money flows out of Argentina and other weaker Latin American economies into Mexico, but no one really seems to really have a good explanation for what's happening. Interest rates on peso deposits have actually dropped by about a third this year, from 15% to under 10%, which should, I would think, make peso investments less attractive. I'm wondering if it could largely be a result of the difference in monetary policy between the U.S. and Mexico. The U.S. has been expanding the dollar money supply wildly at the same time as the Mexican central bank, since 1998, has followed a rather restrictive policy. Could this be the primary cause of the relative strength changes we are seeing? I respect the fine economic analysis here on the Forum and would appreciate your thoughts and comments.

Also, I'm wondering what might happen to the peso when the dollar crashes. If the U.S. moves into a hyper-inflationary blow-off and the dollar declines against European currencies will the peso necessarily go down with it since the two economies are so closely intertwined, and maintain more or less the current exchange ratio? Or could the peso actually strengthen further, putting those folks living in Mexico on fixed dollar incomes in a very precarious position? Any thoughts or comments on this?

As a diversified gold bug, slowly being converted by the arguments of TG, Randy and others into a physical "gold advocate", I personally am pretty well covered. Unfortunately my suggestions to friends here that they consider putting some of their assets into physical PM's have been met until recently with tolerant derision and ridicule. Lately, however, some seem to be more receptive. Funny how a 25% decrease in purchasing power tends to open ones mind a bit. Next thing you know they'll be gettin� some gold� or at least wishing they had.

... As I'm confused on the unrelenting US$-exchange value, mind you vs any other fiat currency - not gold, as it becomes more clear with the day that the POG is artificially suppressed - I'm just asking myself WHY ... can a fiat currency - even if it is regarded the only global reserve currency - gain value against all odds of :
# 1 - deteriorating balance of payments - i.e. current account deficits are unsustainable.
# 2 - Since 1985 the external debt explosion culminated last year from 1.52 trillion $ another 44% to 2.19 trillion.
# 3 - this is about 7 times the cumulated growth average of external debt of the last 15 years (thanks to the "Privateer's no's).

The 64K $-Qu. is how to repudiate this bubble, without destroying the rest of the global economies? ... By Greenmail, extortion and reflation by all others? Well, I don't think so! It won't work - though it may just prolong the bubble until the decay will wreak havoc - too big to contain - the unthinkable, unsinkable ship!

... Who'se running amuck? Pray, tell me, as I am at a loss to understand this monetary spree!

... Gee, don't ever free - gold - as we've got to get more at prices we'll never hoped to see for so long. So please, prolong this selling spree, snapped up by the free to see and grab the opportunity - I (me) too ... cheers cb2

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.htmlThese reports are published regularly at the Commentary & Review page, access by password only. A quick and easy
one-time registration is required. Go to the link above. Your free subscription includes our popular monthly newsletter: NEWS & VIEWS: Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals.

Since CB2 brought it up. . . . . . .

- - - - - - - - - -

7/2/01 (www.usagold.com). . . .Gold continued the
downtrend begun last week as the summer doldrums entered
their second week. The week of July 4th is usually the most
quiet of the year in the investment markets across the boards.
Traders are reporting light physical buying on the dips.

Says Future Source this morning (echoing our own view of
the summer doldrums period), "Trading over the next few
days will likely be thin due to the upcoming Independence
Day holiday in the U.S., as many market participants will
likely be absent Monday and/or Tuesday. That said, market
participants have taken advantage of the absence of certain
sections of the global gold investment community on public
holidays earlier this year to move the market, in plays
requiring very little effort. Some are pointing to the
upcoming Bank of England auction as a deterrent to higher
prices. We disagree. The BOE auctions have become
irrelevant and if something were to happen in the economy or
in the gold market itself to warrant a break to the upside, it is
unlikely the 20-tonnes offered would be a deterrent.

More interesting at the moment than the quiet investment
markets is the developing situation in the steel industry.
What is happening with steel on the international trade front
offers a example of what is happening in a smorgasbord of
U.S. industries. With losses and unemployment mounting
and more factory closures facing a brace of domestic
industries, the Bush administration is being called upon to do
something about what may become its first major domestic
economic crisis. Steel becomes a test case.

Major steel producers like U.S. Steel are complaining that
the strong dollar policy is opening the door to cheap, often
government -subsidized steel imports making it impossible
for domestic producers to compete in the marketplace. The
Bush administration is coming under growing pressure to do
something about it not just from steel but the National
Association of Manufacturers and its membership as a
whole. In its drive to find cheap imports to keep down
inflation, American economic policy-makers are running
American industry out of business. That wouldn't be so bad
if the competition were occurring on a level playing field, but
for a variety of reasons (i.e., cheap labor, subsidized foreign
competition, beggar thy neighbor currency policies, etc.) it is
not.

One option, the restrictions/quota route, raises all kinds of
questions about the 'free trade' stance of the Bush
administration and the future of international trade
agreements. That leaves adjusting the dollar exchange rate
downward as the most viable policy option. The question is
whether or not the Fed and U.S. government are capable of
maneuvering the dollar lower under the circumstances. Both
Europe and Asia have fed at the cheap currency trough for
over a decade with the blessing of the U.S. That is not likely
to change overnight, nor is it likely to occur without some
vigorous arm-twisting, but more and more its beginning to
look like something has to give.

It looks like the steel question might become a testing ground
for the Bush administration to determine which route --
quotas/restrictions or devaluation -- seems least offensive. At
present, in the case of steel, the Bush administration is
pushing for restrictions on exports to the United States. That
may prove to be the wrong policy at a time when trading
relationships, particularly with Europe (The Bush
administration is reportedly angered over the EU's blocking
of the Honeywell/General Electric merger.), are already
strained, not to the mention the fact that it lacks the broad
stroke required to assist a wide range of American
manufacturers -- small and large, now under the gun.

According to Meps Europe, a British analyst, the strong
dollar has played the key role in channeling cheap steel
imports into the US. "The main difficulties in recent years
for the US steel segment have developed from the high value
of the dollar." Meps recalled that since the mid1990s the US
dollar had appreciated against all major currencies: 50% to
the South Korean won and euro, 30% to the Taiwanese
dollar, 15% to the yen and 6.5% to the pound. It follows that
a weaker dollar, or a de facto devaluation would help not
only steel, but the rest of American industry -- and helping
domestic industry is supposedly one of the mandates the
Bush administration took to the White House last January.

It is unlikely that the strong dollar policy will end vis a vis a
unilateral decision by the United States. This will make any
upcoming international conclaves on the economy all the
more interesting. If the G7 decides to restructure the
international economy like it did in the early 1970s, it could
lead to all sorts of dislocations and opportunities. The dollar
would become the object of a de facto devaluation. The most
direct beneficiary would likely be gold. Something to think
about as pressure mounts for action by the Bush
administration.

That's it for today. We'll be back later in the week. MK

Additional Note: If you think the summer doldrums affect
just gold, think again. It affects all the markets. The stock
market is worst than in the doldrums and could very well be
in first stages of a long term bear market. Not many of
today's investors have experienced the grinding away of
one's assets by the bear. As we have said often on these
pages, gold is a safe-haven for investors when the bear is on
the loose. Since, the NASDAQ collapse and the onset of the
bear market, gold has not only held its own, its made a
couple forays to the $300 level. It is a good place to park
funds and preserve the gains you've made in stocks. We
would be happy to discuss the situation with you along with
the fundamentals of gold ownership.

Please contact us at 800-869-5115.

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?e=FOREX

Someone posted recently a snippit about an American guru who had accepted a contract with the Thai government to advise on their monetary problems. I believe the amount mentioned was 50 million baht.

The question of the poster was how much this was in 'real' money.

Disregarding the question of whether the USD is 'REAL' money, and the insult implied in the statement, the exchange rates can be found at the above link. In the case of the baht, it is about 45 plus to the dollar. So if you divide 50 million, by say 50, you get a payment for the contract of just over 1 million US.

j'Bear

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html
I have a couple pages to code before I can rejoin the discussion, but wanted to let everyone know that this page will be gone in a few hours, to be replaced with the new offer.

As always, you can call the Centennial office directly to put in an order for these... while quantities yet remain. There will come a day you'll be glad you did -- or wish that you had!

Working Kirk
I doubt that anyone here wants you to stop posting as you do, certainly not me. Your life experiences give you a perspective that few can even imagine, and are very likely to need badly, in the event of the coming Armaggedon. Those who don't, can simply scroll. Nor can we suggest what we think you should comment on (except you have to stay within the guidelines.) because few of us have the knowledge to ask an intelligent question.

Turbohawg
If one simply looks at such things as the female menstrual cycle, (about a lunar month) it is hard to deny that there is some cyclical effect in our lives. How much, and whether we understand it, may be open to question, but there are cyclical effects present in our lives.

j'Bear

Real men respect power, but are not afraid of it. The courage of their conviction will over-ride fear.

Our Fed Chairman is quite definitely still pro gold. Considering how the markets tend to hang on his every word, he doesn't have the freedom to speak as candidly as most "non officials" can. But saying what he can, he sure knows how to send a powerful message, no? With these three words, he can effectively deliver the equivalent message of two words he dare not utter on the world stage at this particular time -- "Buy gold."

I suggest we all follow his advice and do so. Give Centennial a call!

http://www.sandspring.com/charts2001/cdj070101.html
Interesting commentary on one of the Japanese enigmas.The US is urging action on the banking crisis,elections for upper house coming July 29.

Stranger's Remarks:

Below is a full copy of Gene Epstein's piece from this week's Barron's, which will be of interest to many members of the Forum. In it, Epstein responds to some of the issues raised by Martin Meyer, last week, concerning a weakening Federal Reserve. The piece is posted here with Mr. Epstein's kind consent.

You will note mention of "Gold and Economic Freedom", an article written years ago by Alan Greespan, in the final paragraph. The full text of "Gold and Economic Freedom" can be found under my handle, posted last Saturday.

For greater depth on this subject, Mr. Epstein's suggests you go to the source of Alan Greenspan's wisdom, Murray Rothbard, a name well-known to many who frequent USAGOLD. If you have not read Rothbard's landmark "History of Banking", the entire book can be downloaded free from the internet via pdf at: http://www.mises.org/mysteryofbanking/mysteryofbanking.pdf

As profound as Rothbard is, you will find he is VERY easily comprehended. But, warning: the work is over 170 pages, so it may take a minute or two to download. I think you'll be glad you took the time.
***********************************************************

JULY 2, 2001


Why Did Greenspan Go for a Two-Bit Cut?

By Gene Epstein


Why did the Federal Open Market Committee decide to disappoint market expectations by opting for the baby-step? Last week, it lowered the federal-funds rate target by only a quarter-percentage point, to 3�% from 4%, thus retreating from the unbroken run of half-point giant-steps it has taken five times since January 3.

One explanation for the less aggressive action holds that Greenspan & Co. hoped to buoy everyone else's confidence by signaling its own confidence in what had been done already. In that regard, note that for the very first time this year, the committee chose to keep score, stating in its formal release that "Today's action ... brings the decline in the target federal-funds rate since the beginning of the year to 275 basis points [2� percentage points]" -- perhaps by way of implying that the easy-money cake had pretty much been baked, while the last quarter-point was merely the cherry on top.

That explanation also lends support to a second theory, which holds that the Fed is signaling that its work is done. But since the FOMC statement also expressed the usual concern about "declining profitability and business capital spending, weak expansion of consumption, and slowing growth abroad," a third view seems the most plausible: At this point (and to shift metaphors again), the Fed chairman wants to keep a few extra bullets in his gun.

The reasoning? A funds rate of 3% appears to be a psychologically important barrier that Greenspan would breach with great reluctance. The only time fed funds even touched 3% on his watch was from September 1992 to February 1994, when he was hoping to lift us out of the sluggish recovery.

To push that rate even lower, you might have to abandon the claim, which the FOMC statements have repeatedly made, that inflation has been "contained." For with the consumer price index already rising at a rate of more than 3% (really 4%), a short-term interest rate of less than 3% would begin to look inflationary indeed.

Ergo, simple arithmetic would tell you that at 4% on fed funds, you have only two chances left to shoot with half-point bullets before you get to 3%. But quarter-point ammo allows you four such opportunities.

Notice that I haven't been talking very much about economics; somehow a rate cut becomes more important as a gesture than as the concrete act of lowering the cost of lending to those who want to borrow.

However, while granting that Fed policy can often be more symbol than substance, and even that the central bank wields less substantive power than it used to, we should reject an extreme view that has lately been making the rounds: the idea (shifting metaphors once more) that the Greenspan & Co. are merely the eunuchs guarding the economic harem, in charge of the palace lights and heating system, perhaps, but with no capacity at all to bring about procreative activities.

At least, something close to the eunuch theory seems to be the main thesis of financial writer Martin Mayer, both in his recent book, The Fed, and in last week's article in The Wall Street Journal called "The Fed's Faded Glory."

As Mayer would have it, the central bank pursues three goals -- fostering growth, fostering employment and curbing inflation -- with "exactly one tool," while in the pre-castration period of the 1950s, it "had much more to work with." Through the 'Fifties, according to his story, Fed chairman William McChesney Martin could place various institutional constraints on a banking system that accounted for about two-thirds of private-sector loans; in contrast, Mr. Greenspan is virtually neutered by the fact that the banks make only about one-fifth of all loans and have far more freedom to do what they want.

But ironically, even with all the power at McChesney Martin's disposal during his nearly 19-year reign, the economy suffered no fewer than four recessions. In fact, that was not just because the Fed then had more leeway to do harm; it was also because, then as now, the central bank proved powerless to prevent the forces of boom and bust that it helped unleash (about which more in a minute).


Consider one case of an ineffective tool: the Fed's right to raise and lower the margin requirements on stock purchases. Mayer cites it as an important weapon the central bank used to have in its arsenal, but seems to forget this rule is still on its books. McChesney Martin did change the margin requirement as many as 10 times (to as high as 90% on two occasions), but there's no evidence that his fiddling dampened market volatility. As noted, the Fed can change the margin requirement, although Greenspan has never done so. That's because -- as he's said several times -- studies show it doesn't work, because leverage can be had by other means.

But the Fed does have the power to determine short-term interest rates, both within and beyond the banking system. The chart on this page chooses one example among many: the 30-day interest rate on commercial paper, which is direct borrowing by corporations from institutions.

Notice that as the FOMC cut the fed-funds rate through the fall of '98, the commercial paper rate fell; and as it tightened through '99 and 2000, this commercial rate rose, only to plummet again through the easing of 2001. Note also that this rate began to fall in the last few months of 2000, even before the first rate cut of January 3. The reason apparently is that in this era of Greenspan glasnost, cuts and hikes are often anticipated before they actually happen.

When you think about it, the Fed's still-undisputed power to anchor all short-term interest rates is obvious enough. If the fed-funds rate, which is the rate at which member banks can borrow from each other overnight, is set at 3�%, then this means the banks will find it profitable to lend short-term money at around that rate. And if that's the case, then no creditworthy borrower outside the banking system would be willing to pay much higher than that rate. Why should he, when he can always take his business to one of the banks, despite their shrunken role, can still boast the kind of backing other financial institutions lack: the unique power of the Federal Reserve to print all the money that's required to maintain the fed-funds rate at the level it desires.

Which brings us back to the other kind of power the Fed possesses: the power to do harm.

Mayer writes that we lack a theory to fully explain the central bank's influence on the economy, and here he has a point. But it would help if he and others would begin to appreciate just how often the Fed creates its own messes.

In today's regime, the central bank sets the price of short-term money, and at that price, it provides all the supply the market demands. That was how it underwrote the expansion of money and credit that fueled the Internet and high-tech bubbles. At the same time, Mr. Greenspan was careful to blame it all on those who were prone to irrational exuberance -- while providing all the drugs that kept them high. Then, feeling that the boom was getting out of hand, he cut off their supply by hiking interest rates.

The eunuch guarding the harem? Say rather, the fox in charge of the chicken coop.

Instead of reading Martin Mayer on this topic, try The Mystery of Banking, published in 1983 by the late, great Austrian economist Murray Rothbard.

While his description of the Fed's operations is a bit outdated, Rothbard explains in typically lucid prose what money is, how it is created, how banking evolves and why gold and silver almost inevitably become the money of choice. He then shows the difference between a free market in money and the controlled market imposed by government.

Much of the essence of Rothbard's case is admirably summarized in a 1966 essay called "Gold and Economic Freedom" (appearing in a 1967 collection entitled Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal). As the author writes, the Federal Reserve was created in 1913 for the express purpose of underwriting the expansion of money and credit, which in turn causes boom and bust. The article was written by Alan Greenspan.

I ought to learn to proof my own posts. Rothbard's book is "The MYSTERY (not history) of Banking". Thanks.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0,,5-2001223492,00.html
Since CB2 put it up,,,,,,,,,,

and USAGOLD drove it home,,,,,,

I'll put a coat of paint on it to make it last,,,,,,,,

I'm off for a while,
TrailGuide


===========================================

MONDAY JULY 02 2001

Bush to throw 'protectionist bombshell' at Europe

FROM CHRIS AYRES IN NEW YORK

FEARS are growing that President Bush could throw a "protectionist bombshell" at Europe in retaliation for it blocking the $42 billion (�30 billion) acquisition of Honeywell International by General Electric.

The EU's decision to block the merger of the US industrial groups � which it could announce as early as tomorrow � is the latest in a series of transatlantic trade disputes that have strained relations between Washington and Brussels. The disputes, which threaten to trigger a full-scale trade war between two of the world's biggest trading partners, come on top of transatlantic tensions over other issues such as the environment.

The most likely target of US protectionism is the European steel industry. President Bush last week angered the EU by using section 201 of the 1974 Trade Act to launch a six-month investigation into the impact of European imports on the struggling US steel industry.

If the investigation finds that imports are harming the US, President Bush can impose quotas on imports, punitive tariffs and other protectionist measures. This could have a devastating effect on European steelmakers, including Britain's Corus, which export about five million tonnes of finished steel products to the US a year.

The steel dispute comes amid an equally damaging row over tax subsidies given to US companies operating in Europe. The World Trade Organisation (WTO) last month ruled that the Bush Administration was breaking international trade regulations by offering the subsidies, and opened the door for the EU to impose $4 billion in sanctions against the US.

Robert Zoellick, the US trade representative, said that imposing the sanctions would be like dropping a "nuclear weapon" on trade relations between the two continents.

The US has already failed to hide its anger over the EU's rejection of the Honeywell deal. The EU also last year blocked AOL Time Warner's acquisition of EMI Group, the British record company. There are concerns in Washington that the EU has a hidden anti-US agenda.

President Bush recently said that he was concerned about the
EU's stance on Honeywell, while Donald Evans, the Commerce
Secretary, pleaded with the EU to clear the industrial merger.

Attempts by Washington to influence the EU's investigation last month provoked a furious response from Mario Monti, the EU's Competition Commissioner. He said: "I deplore attempts to misinform the public and to trigger political intervention. This is entirely out of place in an antitrust case and has had no impact on the Commission whatsoever. This is a matter of law and economics, not politics."

Imposing tough sanctions on European steel imports would be a popular move for President Bush in the US. The Speciality Steel Industry of North America, said last week: "We believe that substantial dumping continues in the US marketplace. We will closely monitor developments and, if and when appropriate, will ask the Administration to initiate additional section 201 cases on affected products."

Washington and Brussels are already involved in a related row over steel duties. The EU has threatened to take the US to a WTO dispute panel over its "anti-subsidy duties" on steel imports from about 16 European companies.

The EU won a similar WTO case last year against the US over
duties on imports of leaded bars produced by Corus.

---end-

http://www.gulf-news.com/Articles/news.asp?ArticleID=21117"Gold sales in the first two months this fiscal year were 10 per cent higher than the same period last year."

Something appears to be amiss with the strategy.Faux pas for the Oliphant and Munkey?There was awful lot of HM purchased at the $8 level,arbs may be in trouble.

Who's leading who in the race for the bottom?

I was not talking about the war debt. The subject is much to complex to be discussed in a few sentences. I mentioned the Marshall Plan which was something totally different. I don't remember the exact figures but there were in the order of 5+ billion for Brittain and France, 3+ billion for Germany and above two billion for Italy. I know other countries were involved like Belgium and the Netherlands but they were in much smaller amounts. To my knowledge all these loans have been paid back.

As for the last war you seem to believe that the US enter the war to save the world. Sorry! To me this is propaganda. The US intervened in Europe twice in the last century to protect her own interests. The first time to save her loans to Brittain who was loosing the war and the second time because the stakes were much higher. In the long term : World domination. Which the US achieved. And yes! Without the US neither one could have been won.

We are not on the same frequency on the matter because I don't believe in ideological war. You must create one if you want to be able to send 19 years old chaps to the slaughter. You cannot decently tell them that they should fight to preserve the interests of bankers or who knows what other kind of big financial outfits. It doesn't take anything away to those boys who died. IMHO, all your kids got killed for the wrong reasons. But it, widely, benefitted to a few.

I was sarcastic because of the way you presented it. Even if I believe your dollars bills have no value by themselves, it doesn't mean I did not have to sweat to earn them. But I feel cheated because, as your country is such a big importer, there is no way I can get something for them that suits me, unless I reinvest all my dollars in the US. Which history shows it is the best recipe to loose all of them.

My point with the Chineses was that they are in position to buy all your gold with their huge dollars reserve. Don't worry! Personally, I am hard put to buy just a few of your Gold Eagle coins. Moreover, I feel more confortable with the Canadian Maple Leaf. Sentimental and practical reasons.

I understand you can't agree with me on many of the above. But in my long life, I will be 73 soon, I have got enough solid informations that contradict a lot of what is supposed to be common knowledge, that I am now highly sceptical and should I say very cynical.

Have a good afternoon!

I believe that you have it precisely right.

At this point what else is the power structure, other
than a few competing GANGS.

Yours is the voice of reason and common sense.

A principled stand only proves it.
Do consider posting ongoingly. This will get sorted out.

I think you are an outstanding poster and I'm sure many others agree. You keep posting and I'll keep reading. I watched "Finding Forrester" over the weekend. Made me think of you. Good luck with the horn. . . . .

>Sir Turbohawg,

You may find
"The Fourth Turning (An American Prophesy)" by William Strauss and Neil Howe (1997), Broadway Books
of considerable interest.<

Yes ! Great book ! In fact, I put up a post about that book some time back (pre-Turnaround). Their description of how this Turning would evolve seems to be falling into place.

An additional very interesting aspect of their book is their description of what they label the four generational archetypes � Prophet, Nomad, Hero, and Artist � and the roles the individuals who make up those archetypes play in society's various Turnings, especially the Fourth Turning that we're now entering into and which is the most relevant.

Thanks for the response !

hAug

http://www.economictimes.com/today/03comm03.htmSnippit:
"Traders said gold imports were estimated to rise to 1,000 bars a day this week in the western Indian city of Ahmedabad, a leading gold importing centre, from about 300 bars per day last week.

Traders said imports would pick up further if gold prices fell below $265 per ounce.

"The demand would be moderate at a price range of $265-268 per ounce but be active at $260-265 range," a dealer said.

Gold demand in the country would pick up in mid-August and be at its peak during the festival season, traders said."

The NYMEX crude oil futures ended sharply lower Monday after Iraq said it could speedily return to its two-million-barrel-a-day exports if the U.N. passes an unconditional renewal of existing sanctions.

NYMEX August crude oil settled at $25.95 a barrel, losing 30 cents or 1.1 percent on the day. It plunged as low as $25.38, down 87 cents, and near last week's 14-month low of $25.10, amid expectations that Iraq would soon return to market after halting exports for about a month.

In London, August Brent crude recouped part or its losses, last trading at $25.65 a barrel, down 43 cents or 1.6 percent, after sliding to a session low of $25.10. Confronted by a veto threat from Russia, U.N. Security Council members agreed on Monday to drop for now a U.S.-British plan to revamp sanctions against Iraq and instead extend the U.N. oil-for-food humanitarian program without changes.

Britain, which drafted the resolution on the plan, told the council that in light of Russia's objections, the U.N. oil-for-food program should be extended or "rolled over" for about five months. The exact date will be determined on Tuesday when the current phase of the program expires.

A U.S. State Department spokesman also said the U.S. had agreed to drop for a period yet to be settled a revamp of the sanctions and extend oil-for-food without changes.

http://www.economictimes.com/010601/01comm01.htm(India's consumption of Ag was up a staggering 21% in 2000! Reports I have seen from India in 2001 indicate this level of growth in consumption has not eased. - Netking)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Snippit:
"INDIA has become the third-largest industrial user of silver in the world after the United States and Japan, with its consumption in 2000 having risen sharply by over 21 per cent to 1,430 tonnes.

The growth in offtake over the past decade has been nothing short of spectacular, says world silver survey 2001 conducted by gold fields mineral services.

The demand has risen by 177 per cent in the space of ten years from a relatively paltry 16.6 per cent or 417 tonne in 1991.

In terms of developing world, the only country to come close to Indian level of offtake is China but, even here, demand is substantially lower on both per capita and absolute basis, the survey revealed.(yet it continues to grow also in an agressive manner in the PRC also - NK)"

Canuck: I wonder how much of the 12% is actually "the plan working" and how much is accredited to economic slowdown?

You may be right that there is an element of a slowing economy at work here. When the economy heats up, energy costs go up, and when the economy slows there is less energy demand. This can be illustrated with natural gas. Prices have fallen quite a bit - partly as a result of moderate temperatures (so much for global warming), partly as a result of conservation, and partly as a result of less demand due to the economic slowdown (recession). Exploration and production has increased and yet there is very little net gain in natural gas. However, injection rates have increased and storage levels are higher. Decline rates for natural gas fields are much higher than the decline rates in oil fields. If natural gas exploration and production slowdown, we could see prices move higher. If we make it through July and August with moderate temperatures and a continuation of the economic slowdown (recession), we could probably make it through the winter months without any serious problems. One big question is whether utes will lock in long-term contracts while we have this reprieve or will they follow the folly of the Californian Grasshoppers and get whipsawed? Cheers!

- Black Blade

With a holiday in the U.S. later in the week and another Bank of England 20-tonne auction over next week (to be announced July 4th UK) dealers expect business to be somewhat thin.

However there appears to be very strong fundamental support for physical Au on any price weakness, eg India for one(posted earlier) are ready with the check book to take advantage of any opportunity in the weakness of spot.

My reading is that downside is VERY limited. Any opinions on this next BOE sale? I may be wrong but I sense a certain apathy towards this "out there".

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2001/07/02/MN202073.DTL&type=news
Snippits:

Gov. Gray Davis' top energy advisers took credit yesterday for the apparent success so far of their new conservation campaign, calling it the most aggressive energy-savings effort in the nation's history. California's new conservation programs have sparked the public imagination to significantly reduce energy use -- 12.3 percent less electricity used last month alone -- save money and avoid blackouts, state energy officials told reporters during a conference call.

Some have said California's energy savings are simply the result of businesses shutting down in the stalled-out economy. Others suggest the state has twiddled the latest conservation figures -- based on differences in this year's temperature and population growth -- in search of good ink for the governor.

Black Blade: Here you are Canuck. It now is official as some reports are filtering out that the energy savings are a result of the California economic recession.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010702/n02357941_3.html
Snippit:

LOS ANGELES, July 2 (Reuters) - California narrowly managed to avoid blackouts on Monday as scorching heat threw the state back into crisis mode after news of a major new power plant and increased conservation had raised spirits earlier in the day. The California Independent System Operator (ISO), which controls most of the state's power grid, warned early Monday afternoon that blackouts were ``a possibility'' but as loads began to drop the state appeared to have survived. ``We are going to be fine,'' said ISO spokeswoman Stephanie McCorkle. The ISO had declared a Stage Two alert earlier in the day triggering several emergency measures including the loss of service for some commercial customers.

Black Blade: Looks like a close call, yet voluntary blackouts were still ordered. Still a couple of months left where it could get a bit warm. And even with a recession and conservation - hmmm�

http://inq.philly.com:80/content/inquirer/2001/07/01/business/PERS01.htm
Dow stocks are trading for prices of about 22 times the companies' earnings for the last 12 months, while the price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is about 29. Even if you believe, as some experts do, that a "normal" P/E today is 20, rather than the long-term average of about 15, this doesn't bode well. To get a 20 P/E, prices for the S&P 500 stocks would have to fall by 30 percent, or earnings would have to soar by 45 percent. That's tough to do. With stocks this risky, it would be foolish to count on a return to the kind of double-digit annual gains we enjoyed in the late '90s.

Sadly, though, long-term investors don't really have an alternative to stocks. You can protect your money in a bank account or money market fund, but this year's interest-rate cuts have dragged their yields down to the low single digits. With inflation, you'd be lucky to tread water.

Black Blade: HUH!!! %&$#@^*(&$@!!!!!!!! Sorry, but drinking beer while reading that last statement is not advised, and a damn waste of good beer! It is true that stock prices are generally grossly overvalued. One must be very selective in a very few sectors while tip-toeing through this minefield. And PMs would also be a good contrarian bet now.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/134312873_fuzzyearnings020.html
Snippit:

Increasingly, earnings reports, especially those from once-high-flying technology companies, are turning accounting rules on their heads. Today, the view through the news release often offers a blurry picture of how a business is doing. The SEC has taken note. Its chief accountant, Lynn Turner, recently tried to jawbone corporate America about the importance of clear disclosure. In a March speech, he attacked company disclosures that appeared to "turn straw into gold."

His term for many of the earnings reports: "EBS, or Everything but the Bad Stuff." These earnings come under a variety of names - cash earnings, comprehensive income - but pro forma is the most commonly used. With the rise of tech companies, pro forma earnings have become more common. The dictionary says pro forma means "as if," or "hypothetical." Critics say "hocus-pocus" might be a better definition.

Black Blade: Add this article to the previous post. These Dot-Bomb analysts and touts just don't give up. You just got to drive a stake through their hearts before these bloodsuckers do anymore damage by misleading and lying to investors. Pro Forma has been used for the last few years by even the "Blue Chip" Dot-Bombs (and Dot-Gones) and Tech stars. As I said, it's a virtual minefield! Not a concern with PMs.

Can you tell me how much NG production does Mexico have?

Is the infrastructure in place to export it to the US?

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/us/DailyNews/Power_Interactive_FeatureBlank_010418.htmlCheck out the energy situation in your state.

http://community.metamarkets.com/boardCharts/200106/--29gold.gifP.O.G. - In the attatched graph:
Gold recovered at support at the lower bound of the uptrend channel ( shown on the chart as a pair of thin pink lines ) . That's support today at 269.80. Resistance is at 276.70 from the short term downtrend line from the May peak (shown on the chart as a thin dark green line ).

Long term : A new bull market

Intermediate term : A beautiful double bottom reversal

Short term: The strange uptrend continues -- but it's challenged severely now.

Micro term :Bouncing off the bottom of the range
(With thanks to Lurker777 & Don Luskin)

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010628/n28282926.html
Mexico is the 7th largest petroleum producer. Mexico's oil fields are in various stages of decline and the infrastructure is a shambles. It is extremely unlikely that Mexico will be an exporter of natural gas, in fact they could be an importer as I posted not long ago. The state oil company Pemex is grossly mismanaged and the proceeds are used for many of Mexico's social programs and very little has been used to upgrade and maintain the petroleum infrastructure. That is the unfortunate legacy of PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party) that ruled Mexico for 71 years. The Utilities are just as bad off. As far as the amount of Mexican NG production, I am not sure, although there are concerns that domestic NG production will be insufficient for domestic needs.

Check out the link to the article detailing the Mexican Petroleum crisis. Quite revealing. Cheers!

- Black Blade

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/us/DailyNews/vegas_blackouts010702.html
Triple-Digit Temperatures and Energy Use Trigger Rolling Blackouts

Snippit:

The Las Vegas-based Nevada Power Company briefly declared a red alert as churning air conditioners outstripped the utility company's ability to provide electricity. The power emergency lasted about two hours. Scattered outages were reported around the Las Vegas area as power-thirsty customers tried to cope with triple-digit temperatures. Temperatures scorched the southern Nevada desert for the second straight day today. After reaching an official high of 112 degrees on Sunday, temperatures hit 120 on the Las Vegas Strip and 122 at elsewhere.

Black Blade: Californian Blackouts rolling Eastward? Even with Hoover Dam in their backyard - Hmmm�

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/business/DailyNews/gas_theft010702.html
Higher Pump Prices Produce Increase in Gasoline Theft

Snippit:

As gasoline prices have risen there's been a corresponding increase in the number of "drive-offs," or gasoline thefts by motorists, according to the National Association of Convenience Stores.

Black Blade: Higher energy costs lead to crime.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0,,3-2001224075,00.htmlFrom today's London Times:

GERMANY is deploying police flying squads backed up with helicopters and sniffer dogs and ordering roadside strip-searches after �1 billion was seized in a year from tax-dodgers trying to put their savings in foreign bank accounts.
�
Hans Eichel, the Finance Minister, has called it a national scandal and has ordered the patrols to be strengthened this week before the introduction of the euro in six months. "This is the time when people with illegal money are going there to try to get it out and when others are making deposits with large amounts of marks that will soon be out of circulation," he said.

====
Here's one more advantage for gold (smile)
View Yesterday's Discussion.

The Invisible Hand (07/03/01; 02:05:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 57368)
Thou shalt be strip-searched for the euro
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0,,3-2001224075,00.html

www.ukaff.ac.uk/movies/nsmerger

"Gold in Them Thar Stars"
A very interesting, but much too short, article in the July, 2001 *Discover* magazine, pp14.

"The origin of platinum and gold is every bit as storied and exotic as the metals themselves, says astrophysicist Stephan Rosswog of the University of Leicester in England. These precious elements arise during one of the rarest and most violent events in the cosmos: the cataclysmic merger of two neutron stars, ultra-dense stellar remmnants that pack the mass of half a million Earths into a ball the size of Manhattan....

"Although neutron-star collisions occur just once every 100,000 years in a typical galaxy [presumably like the Milky Way galaxy], that's often enough to account for all of the precious metals on Earth."



Some beautiful images and movies are available at the linked website.
from the website:
"At the start of the simulation the two stars (each 1.4 times the mass of The Sun, but less than 30 kilometres in diameter) are less than 10 kilometres apart, and moving at around 20% of the speed of light (over 200 million miles per hour)."

(1.4 solar masses is the lower mass limit for a star to collapse into a black hole.)


"As the two stars spiral together they become deformed, and finally touch. As they merge the matter reaches unimaginable temperatures (1011 Kelvin, or 100 thousand million degrees).

"A few percent of the matter is ejected in the form of spiral arms, which cool rapidly. It is in these arms that the important nuclear physics takes place which creates heavy elements (for example gold, uranium)."

"The whole merger process takes only a few milliseconds, and in this short time shines brighter than the rest of The Universe put together."

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/images/angel.jpegAwaiting final pricing details from MK before uploading this online order page to the server. In the meanwhile, you can get a jump start by placing your order by phone (toll free) with Centennial during Denver business hours (8am-6pm). I'm sure you'd enjoy using this as a good excuse to chat with Michael, George, or Marie -- good folks who know and love the gold business. They'll gladly answer your questions (and probably brighten your day if you're not on your guard and hopelessly gloomy.) Give 'em a call.

Thanks for the 'link' yesterday.

It really is amazing how these guys can spin a story to their 'political' advantage. The sad part is the average John Doe believes whatever spews out of their yaps.

I'm on holidays this week, golf on Wednesday and up to the cottage Thursday for a serious attempt to snag a 'whale'!
Might have time for a beer or three.

Have a nice week buddy.

Canuck.

ORO (07/02/01; 00:15:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 57323)
Peter Asher - No system, and alternatives

"My first choice is "No System". The market participants chose whatever they want."

Like it has been for most of the past few billion years.


"The key choice is not to have a central bank, and not to have regulation of banking (at least not as it regards reserve ratios, leverage, interest rates, credit quality, etc..). Even Jack Kemp recognizes that the Fed should not be in the business of setting interest rates...."

Yes, Mr. Kemp has previously demonstrated an abysmal lack of economic understanding, perhaps he has take some Monetarist/Keynesian style 'classes'. He is apparently considered something of an expert in this field, at least among politicos, perhaps by contrast.


"At this juncture, we have to conceed that the [downfall] of a gold fixed par currency is that holding gold bears no risk, while holding currency does..."


There is some risk of robbery in holding gold, hence the risk premium of a vault storage charge, maybe .5% per annum. Insignificant in comparison to fraud-currency, to be sure.


"Furthermore, if gold were simply made into a legal tender along with a currency, then the currency system would slowly [atrophy] as gold gains two fewer bid-ask transactions in conversion of currency to gold and vice versa for paying a debt, making for an advantage in contract denomination in gold (more stable real values, and even better stability with no central bank playing in the gold markets), and transactions in gold. "

Um, like Peter Asher, I'm still chewing on this one. The critical juncture is of course (as always) the conversion between fake-money and gold. It's the "gold gains two fewer bid-ask transactions...and vice-versa.." that isn't clear.

http://www.standaard.be/nieuws/economie/index.asp?articleID=DST03072001_064&Doctype=detail.aspSorry this article is in Dutch, but it says that the computer system of the branches of the Fortis Bank confused euro's and Belgian francs on Monday. The bank has admitted the problems but has said that they are unrelated to the conversion of the bank accounts to euro's. The computer terminals started calculating in euro also for transactions in francs. A client who deposited 100,000 francs on his account received a receipt for 100,000 euro (4.034 million francs). Conversely, when a client transferred 5.000 francs to somebody else's account, the former's account was debited for 5,000 euro (201,699 francs).

Remember Y2K? Chaos, you said!

Hi Turnaround!

If I'm not mistaken (could be of course) I believe ORO means that transactions done directly in gold don't require cross-currency exchanges. Fiat to different-fiat transactions require an intermediary to translate the first currrency, probably in a transactional gold world, thru gold first, into the second fiat.

For this service, you are charged transaction fees or "money changers'" charges. You can see them in the bid-ask spread at a "cambio" in a "foreign" airport for example. In a sense, they are the "profit" a middle man charges you to "buy" his product, which in this case is another currency.

You incurr these to some degree, in addition to any other "transfer" fees, etc. anytime you convert one currency into another.

Thus transactions in gold have an inherent advantage in cross-currency exchanges.

Regards,
Journeyman

The TSE PM index broke 4500 to the downside. Paper profits anyone? Now is your chance to 'get' Barrick!

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3EOWRNOOC&live=true&tagid=IXLYK5HZ8CC
Koizumi appears to be a rare bird in Japanese politics;he actually has some resolve to tackle the two crucial issues for reform of the economy.It would also appear that given Bush supports resolution of the banking crisis,which may entail selling US bonds and repatriation of capital,Koizumi,in return has supported the US position on Kyoto.Of course,this is just my take on a situation I feel maybe key to unraveling the dollar's dominance on the currency stage.

Note the quote fronm Koizumi;"We have no intention whatsoever of consciously bringing the yen lower."

Bring it on home,the waffling is getting pretty tired.

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

Angels for Hire

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http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010703/n03227027.htmlAccording to Reuters:

---- ...the Bush administration has repeatedly said it does not favor tampering with the currency's value.
+
"The Bush administration has absolutely no intention of encouraging interest-rate policy in any country," a Treasury official quoted O'Neill as saying. "We intend to encourage economic growth at home and abroad, but how countries stimulate growth is their own business, not ours."-----

Make it YOUR business to protect yourself domestically from the Fed's easing monetary policy. You can't stop the press, but you can take steps to limit your exposure to potential currency devaluations.

Grab the helm and buy gold. Be the captain of your own fortune.

"May I come into your parlor?" - Said the fly to the spider.

If you were a Homestake shareholder, having purchased these shares because they were a non-hedged gold producer, you certainly received an unpleasant surprise last Monday. It seems that the Homestake CEO could not sell his company quick enough. For Barrick's CEO, a Mr. Randall Elephant, who must have been delighted, perhaps Christmas did come early this year.

Owning shares in mining companies is a risky business these days, as you never really know what the senior management is up to. As we have said before, one is better off owning bullion, rather than risking one's capital in a market arena that can be full of surprises, most of them negative in outcome. The poor old shareholder is often the last to know what's going on and usually ends up owning wallpaper material.

The world of gold mining stocks is getting smaller and smaller. Getchell Gold has gone, as has Battle Mountain Gold, now Homestake, Alta Gold went under, and Franco Nevada gave its producing mine to an Australian company in return for a large supply of wallpaper material. Rumors abound about Newmont as well, but they appear to not have been prompted into action by the closing of the pooling window that put such a sense of urgency in Homestake's senior management. Unless of course the party they may have been talking to decided they too were at risk.

What is left of the various gold funds and their respective management should find it relatively simple to decide where to put the money they manage as the choices are getting less and less. There is the likelihood of more downside surprises as this 21- year bear market enters its final phase.

With gold at $270 an ounce most mining companies are in serious trouble. The actual cost of production, as opposed to the cash cost that is announced, is considerably higher than $270. There is debt servicing, head office expenses, reserve replacement, etc. This is where the problem lies, there is not enough of a profit to go round and it is only a matter of time before something gives. It is indeed a strange world when gold production has become a liability.

What seems to go unnoticed is the fact that most of these companies have investment bankers advising them and one wonder's as to who was advising Homestake? Was it somebody friendly to Barrick? Letting an investment banker have access to your books is a bit like putting the bank robber in charge of the vault. It's them that are indirectly responsible for the gold market and the conditions that have created this dismal market.

Should there be a massive short position in terms of gold that has been borrowed from the Central Banks and sold into the market, well what better way to cover one's derriere, than to secure existing gold production by way of putting it under the nominal control of as few owners as possible. Lets go global and secure US, South African and Australian gold production just in case we need it may be the driving thought behind the "how do we get our gold back" question that at least one Central Banker has raised.

Market conditions such as what we are seeing can do strange things to the thinking of senior management and I am sure that they are clutching at straws at present. They appear to be just ripe enough for a modern day version of Henry Morgan the pirate, a well -dressed investment banker, to walk in the door and charge them exorbitant sums for "advice" about what to do. Without of course ever telling the poor old gold mining CEO what the real plan is here.

Any farmer knows that prior to sending the sheep to market, it is best that one puts the sheep in a pen first. And one pen is better that two, or three.

It will not be long before nearly all US gold production is under the control of three or four companies. That's a large chunk of world production with only a small portion of it US owned.

The real question is who is advising these companies and whoever they are, what if any is the size of their gold related derivative portfolios. One suspect's that mine production and mine reserves are being looked at for reasons other than to benefit shareholders. After all spiders do eat spiders.

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/RocketSchool/vonBraun.html

There is little question about the ownership of gold. You either have it or you don't.

Or, perhaps it's not quite that straightforward in this modern age of banking. There are some people who, seeking a return, have placed their gold into unallocated accounts which bear interest. Many of these people would surely claim that they still own this gold. But sadly, they do not. Their "ownership" goes only so far as their depository's ability to maintain the overall illusion that requests for withdrawals can be delivered; and that outstanding lease contracts will not fall into default -- if so, leaving collateral that is truly "good as gold".

Gold, wholly owned, is a supreme hedge against monetary collapse because it has instant international liquidity and cannot be counterfeited or defaulted upon. You either have it, or you don't.

Money, on the other hand, is an intangible creature of credit -- conceived in man's desire to enjoy a lifestyle today that will be paid for with his future productivity, and born with the spirit of a promise embodied in a contract. Money can flow like an electric current, but its nature, these units of "manpower" can't be easily held to a rigid definition like units of "horsepower". This is not an insurmountable problem as long as you are conscious of it from the start.

Like electricity, money can be put to use within your lifetime to improve your lifestyle, but it is not something to own. You can make/generate it with a degree of effort, but it does not lend itself fully to the concept of "ownership". Money, like electricity, can be prone to "outages" and various other interruption in service. Owning gold is like owning oil lamps, candles, flashlights, and even a backup generator and fuel.

Our infrastructure to deliver "reliable" electric power reminds us how individually enriched we are through a cooperative society based on specialization efficiently driven by capitalistic motivations. But tommorrow is Independence Day. We should all take this moment to assess the amount of independence that is prudent for each of us to maintain. "Survival of the fittest" is no longer measured in terms of life or death among a modern, interdependent society. However, that does not mean that everyone shares the same fate. Those who prudently prepare against society's natural uncertainties will have options not available to those who did nothing.

Show your spirit of independence and add to your gold holdings as you deem appropriate.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2001/07/03/BU35295.DTL&type=business
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2001/07/03/BU35295.DTL&type=business


"The vast headquarters of Sun Microsystems, the computer server manufacturing titan in Palo Alto, was as deserted as a high school during summer break yesterday.

"The normally busy parking lot, big enough for the needs of a small city, was empty except for a few cars. Only a handful of people were at their desks, mostly in case of an emergency.

"Wounded by a slowing economy, technology companies across Silicon Valley have taken the unusual step of shutting down this week. In an effort to cut costs, they have asked or ordered thousands of workers to go on vacation, creating an eerie calm in offices where frenetic activity is the tradition. ..."


Think back three years.
Can you remember any business articles making this kind of economic projection "going forward"?
Or did it seem an endless summer of linear time, ever onward and upward?

Now think about some other possible illusions you may hold.
Will the government be there for you in you winter?
Does Alan Greenspan care about you?

Is the dollar as good as gold?

I think your comments are "right on". Who is the central banker who posed the question,"how do we get our gold back"?
While I'm here; can anyone tell me why Hecla was up over 30% today? Happy 4th everyone!

The latest 'Dow Theory Letter' has an interesting piece on Cycles (bullish for gold), disputing the "hold for the long haul theory" for stocks.

The Dow from 1914 to 1929 rose 620% over 15 years.
The Dow from 1929 to 1949 was down 58% over 20 years.
The Dow from 1949 to 1966 rose 520% over 17 years.
The Dow from 1966 to 1982 was down over 22% over 16 years.
The Dow from 1982 to 2000 rose 1400% over 16 years.

Conclusions:

***The conclusion to the study is that it is estimated the Dow will be down 30% from 2000 to 2016, over a period of 16 years.

***Current stock market valuation as a percentage of GDPis around 150%. This is around 3 to 5 times what we usually see at the bottom

***Currently the S&P is selling at about 85 times dividends. At bear market bottoms the S&P may sell for as little as 15 times earnings.

There has NEVER been a better time to invest in Gold!

A very happy 4th July to all US goldbugs & especially to all at CPM - regards Murray

Randy said: (parts snipped)

"Money, on the other hand, is an intangible creature of credit -- conceived in man's desire to enjoy a lifestyle today that will be paid for with his future productivity, and born with the spirit of a promise embodied in a contract."

"Money can flow like an electric current, but its nature, these units of "manpower" can't be easily held to a rigid definition like units of "horsepower".

"Like electricity, money can be put to use within your lifetime to improve your lifestyle, but it is not something to own."

(end of Randy snipped parts)


Randy, of course, you are defining what we call paper money, which is currency. This is not defining gold money, the real money. Of course. There are many links in the archives that discuss what money is. Why do you continue to post this?

We still have a fundamental difference that you or TG will not acknowledge. You continue to refuse this point and it is causing a large difficulty among the contributors to this forum. Please address or acknowledge this difference or the silence will split us all. Your "bully pulpit" is gaining you no audience.

I was "on the trail' with the "FREEGOLD" and the "Trail Guide" until we got to the part about Euro governments being able to default on gold contracts with more paper. That is not my idea of "free gold".

You and FOA still have not elucidated about what is different from that and what we have now. As one poster put it: "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss", a quote from a late 60's album by The Who. We still a have a welfare state and incentives for politicians to print "money" and cheat on gold.

Another point that was brought up months ago (and ignored by the Sir Trail Guide) was TG's vision that the BIS was somehow "on our side" and willing and able to crush the anti-gold cabal. When Howe and GATA showed us that the BIS was definitely not "on our side", not a word from our "Trail Guide"... (unless I missed it. I have read about 90% of the posts here since mid-99 and I believe that Sir TG has not addressed the issue.)

I'm off the trail.

My post (06/29/01 msg#: 57163) "Gold is the only money the world has ever known" highlighted a direct contradiction between the writings of "Another" and Trail Guide. I didn't see a response to this or the excellent post (KarenSue msg#: 57175) other than denial and another temper tantrum threatening to leave.

In the long run, "FREEGOLD" is not in the best interests of European welfare states. Gold will not be set free by the EU.

As long as politicians still have the incentive to pander to the welfare state, they will print currency and trash gold. Sir TG's writings may certainly occur in the short term and I hope that some of the TG prophecies may come true. The Euro governments certainly may have a short term incentive to let gold run free as it destroys the big US banks and the reserve currency status of the dollar.

In the long run, I will continue to defer to the opinions that comprise the works of von Mises, von Hayek, Rothbard, Davidson/Rees-Mogg et al, and our endless efforts to convey that message by ORO, Journeyman, HBM, ET and all the rest.

Randy, I'm still not convinced. Your propaganda style postings aren't going to cut it. (#57382)

Gold is money. paper is currency.

Have a happy 4th holiday!

Regards,
Journeyman

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010703/n03365828.html
Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO, July 3 (Reuters) - California, rushing to add much-needed power plants to meet its voracious appetite for electricity, is looking into building new transmission lines to tap power plants planned in neighboring Nevada and Arizona. Next week, the Independent System Operator (ISO), which controls most of California's grid, will issue a ``request for proposals'' to energy consulting firms to study the economics of a new transmission system linking up with plants near Las Vegas, Nevada and Phoenix, Arizona. ``There is a lot of interest about this work,'' Armando Perez, director of grid planning for the ISO, told Reuters in a interview on Tuesday.

The ISO's Perez said about 12,000 megawatts of new generating capacity is planned for the Phoenix region and about 5,000 megawatts near Las Vegas. Tapping some of that energy and delivering it to California would help ensure more reliable electricity supplies, especially during summer emergencies when soaring air conditioning demand drives reserves dangerously low. California looks to the Pacific Northwest for summer imports of hydroelectricity, but that region has been hit hard by drought and its energy exports are limited. The Southwest is also facing its own energy crunch, and Nevada was hit with blackouts for the first time on Monday when power was cut to about 10,000 Las Vegas homes and businesses.

Black Blade: The Grasshoppers now are hatching new plans to steal from the Ants in neighboring states. We predicted this months ago, and now it is beginning to take shape. Their neighbors have energy problems of their own and now the Grasshoppers must satisfy their voracious appetite at the expense of the Ants.

http://www.law.indiana.edu/uslaw/docsdeclaration.html The link above to the Declaration of Independence and an analysis of the Freedoms that we still have indicates that our freedoms have been severely reduced and compromised during the 225 years since the Declaration of Independence was signed. Our rights to be secure from Government interference in our lives including the right to build up an estate free from confiscation by the Government have been seriously abridged. Since the right to own gold as a store of wealth, free from manipulation has been compromised, the following comments are offered to show the current status of citizens of the United States. Many of the abuses identified back in 1776 still exist. The paragraph numbers refer to the corresponding paragraph in the original document for ready reference. Some of the current abuses are listed below:

10. Congress has failed to pass necessary legislation to fix major problem areas including affordable health care, adequate funding for social security, and inequitable income tax provisions such as requiring payment of a tax on stock options where the value of the option has declined as much as 90% before the option was exercised so that a tax is paid on a net loss.

16. Congress, The Executive Branch, and various Federal Agencies have obstructed the Administration of Justice in various cover ups including Ruby Ridge, Waco, The Oklahoma City Bombing, the missle attack on TWA flight 800, the assassination of President Kennedy, and the bombing of the World Trade Center.

18. "He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harass our people and eat out their substance." These abuses today include confiscation of property and money from people carrying large sums of cash on the premise that it was money involved in the sale of illegal drugs with no evidence that the people had committed a crime. The property is alleged to have committed the felony. Cases such as the US Governmemt vs. a 1999 Mercedes result in the seizure of the Mercedes and the loss of the property to the owner without a trial and without compensation. Some of these cases are clear abuse where $50,000 cash is confiscated from a elderly domestic worker where it can be proved to be proceeds from an insurance settlement or the sale of real estate and the trigger was that she paid cash for the bus ticket and her luggage was searched.

19. "He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies, without the consent of our legislatures." Why are som many foreign troops stationed over here?

21. "He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution and unacknowledged by our laws, giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation." The Federal Reserve System, a private bank that has full control over our banking system under the cover and implied authority of the non Federal entity called the Federal Reserve System, is the prime example of this abuse. Would it be accepted to the same degree if it were called the Smith Bank or the Rothschildren Bank?

21-3. "For cutting off our trade with all parts of the world." NAFTA, other pending free trade agreements etc. come to mind. How can a document with 1100 pages of conditions and restrictions be called a free trade agreement? This is a managed trade agreement to benefit certain parties. These agreements are to the detriment of farmers, factory owners, employees in these occupations, entire industries such as shoe making, and the manufacturing of TV sets and VCRs, and numerous other items no longer produced here.

21-4. "For imposing taxes on us without our consent." The Federal Income Tax comes to mind. Was it ever properly ratified by the required number of States? What is the specific statutory authority for this legislation? The IRS seems to be unable to provide a citation to a specific law.

21-5. "For depriving us in many cases of the benefits of trial by jury." The forfeiture laws mentioned in 18 above come to mind. Congress enacted the seizure laws. Are they constitutional? Several Property Rights abuses also come to mind. At least the Supreme Court overturned some of these taking by regulation cases where there was a taking without the payment of Just Compensation as required by the 5th Amendment. A major case on this subject was discussed on the editorial page of the July 3, 2001 edition of the Wall Street Journal.

23. "He has plundered our seas, ravaged our Coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people." See 18 and 21-5 above.

28-1. "We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us." This relates to Federal usurpation of rights and powers reserved to the States by the Constitution. Gun Control, the national speed limit, the Federal requirement to control outdoor advertising signs adjacent to highways on the Federal System, the legal drinking age, and numerous other examples come to mind.

The signers of the Declaration of Independence would be appalled by the excesses of the Federal Government which have occurred over the years. We think our two political parties are protecting the people against these abuses? What is required to restore the Constitution to what was intended? Would the signers of the Declaration of Independence feel that they sacrificed in vain?

An interesting side note. The first signer of the document is a Mr. Bartlett from New Hampshire. Is it a coincidence that President Bartlett in the hit TV series WEST WING was from New Hampshire? He presents the image of a President who tries to do what is right.

This paper is not proposing another Declaration of Independence from the abuses of our leaders in the Nations Capitol. Rather, it is a request for our leaders to read and reflect on the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution and to try to follow the principles included in those documents that our forefathers sacrificed so much for so we could enjoy our freedoms and be secure from the abuses of our government. What good does it do to work and save and try to secure our future by buying and holding gold, real estate and other valuable items, if our government has the ability to negate these efforts through oppressive regulations and taxes that in effect confiscate our wealth?

We should be thankful that we have the privilege of living in the United States with all of the benefits that go with living here. We must be vigilant or these freedoms could easily be lost.

Sir RossL. Thank you for this post to the tower on money, currency gold and the debates here about these. You have well said what I have been puzzling and fretting about for some time. And I have not had your courage to directly address the Tower about his silence on these differences. My thought is that maybe he is too high above us to experience the smoke and fog in which we labour.

A happy 4th to all here, We in Canada celebrate July 1. Hopefully these days will be ever more "golden" holidays in future.

FWIW

Goldfan

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010703/n03355131.html
Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO, July 3 (Reuters) - Continued triple digit temperatures forecast on Tuesday across much of the Southwestern United States prompted heat advisories and renewed calls to conserve energy to avoid overloading the power grid. Officials at the California Independent System Operator (ISO) said a high pressure blanket of hot air was smothering the entire Southwest, making it hard for neighboring states to scrape together extra power to help energy-starved California.

Black Blade: It's one heck of a heat wave. The last couple of days have been down right hot! The grid is about to melt down and if it weren't for the 4 th of July break tomorrow, western businesses may have taken a hit and the energy grid could have been overloaded. What does this mean for the economy? Plenty - this could be just the tip of the iceberg. The US and the rest of the World is headed into Global recession. Every postwar recession has been preceded by an energy crisis. "Go for the Gold!" A little insurance can go a long way.

http://www.miami.com/herald/content/business/digdocs/029730.htm
Snippit:

WASHINGTON -- Gasoline prices fell in much of the country for the fifth week in a row, the Energy Department reported Monday, the latest evidence that two years of rising energy prices may be coming to an end.

Black Blade: Good news - bad news! "Falling" energy prices and a "falling" economy. Is this a case of what was first, the chicken or the egg? The higher energy prices slow the economy, the slow economy lowers energy prices, the low energy prices increase energy demand, in turn higher demand raises energy prices, etc. Hmmm�

Fiat currency lacks durability! War is not peace. Currency is not money. Who changed the definition of money?

Only me

KS

What kind of odds would you give me that the United States government would go back on a gold standard in the next five years? Let's talk numbers. 50-50? 60-40? etc.

Oh, and one more:

What would precipitate it?

After we've kicked that one for awhile, I'll have a follow up for you.

I see the odds of a gold standard in the next five years (or fifty) as being slim to none. Only a sucessful, bloody revolution could possibly precipitate it. TPTB would see us all dead or in "re-education" camps before they would relinquish their control.

My estimate is based on the fact that for the last 13 years the US gov't FED bank has been HEADED by the 'world's most popular gold bug', who apparently 'loves' gold and 'can't wait' to re-instate the old relic, and absolutely NOTHING has been done or will be done, by him, in the next 5 years.

My odds-99.99-.o1 against re-instatement.(.the .01 is in case an 'actual' honorable human takes over as FED chairman)

KarenSue(57393)Re:"Gold is durable Fiat currency lacks durability! War is not peace. Currency is not money. Who changed the definition of money?"
------------------------------------------------------------
Karen, good comments from you. However CONFIDENCE is THE King amongst the sheeple. Things that are real may seem not, and things are also not always what they seem. Something is "whatever people think it is".

If they "perceive" that Gold is a dog (from the orchestration of financial media attention) then they will have no confidence in it, UNTIL the paradigm changes in their perceptions yes.

Therefore, currency is money, but only as long as people actually believe it is, and gold is "some dirty metal dug out of the ground" only if they believe it is.

At the end of the day though Karen CONFIDENCE IS KING(IMHO) & this will guide the peoples perceptions & value of their unit of store and exchange. regards Murray

Let's just max out the negative reaction at 100-1. Here's where we stand so far. . . .

Megaton. . . . 100-1 probablility against

Mountain Gold. 100-1 probablility against

C'mon you lurkers and fellow "posterscourageous". . .

You can't be right or wrong on this. Let's just see where the table stands on this.

Please, Who is the central banker you quoted????

Given that the USD has reached a very important long term top and that it's now in free fall from here(IMHO);

- It will depend on far it(USD)falls (and how quickly)as to how big the crisis is. Given a worse case scenario (for the greenback)and also a freefall in the equity markets with inflation kicking in and gaining momentum at the same time, not to mention as an aside a residential property crash in values happening simultaneously. The 'Return to the Gold Standard' is possible & indeed plausable as presented to the forum. Before this happened we would witness a flight by the people to PM's away from paper assets, driving up the POG to dizzy heights. The move to return to the gold standard would be a move from the Govt. to alleviate this flight of capital within the USA & also to outside of it. It would be a shot to try & prevent the Euro from superseding the USD's perceived roll & as "urgent surgery" to save it.

- The percentage likelihood of this occurring in 5 years? It would have to be 40%. regards Murray

Gene(57399)Which quote?(date or post no?)

Being a real optimist, I will assign a 15% probability of a return to Gold Standard.
It would ONLY happen under duress as in collapsing of current system. Its 'purity', longevity, and ability to withstand compromise would be highly suspect. We would be much more likely to see another spurious monetary format, even if somehow tied to gold.

Megatron. . . . . . . 100-1 probablility against

Mountain Gold. . . . . 100-1 probablility against

Netking . . . . . . .. 60-40 probability againt

Auspec . . . . . . . . 85-15 probability against

C'mon you lurkers and fellow "posterscourageous". . .

Here's your chance. You can't be right or wrong on this. Let's just see where the table stands on this.

You quoted a central banker as saying,"How do we get our gold back?".I just wanted to know what central banker you were quoting. Thanks, Gene.

Your 53780, 7th paragraph.

Your 57380 today. Sorry bout that. Regards, Gene

My VoteAbsolutely, unequivocally - 100% certainty that it will NEVER happen!!

OK, I'll take a stab at it as I have consumed some adult beverages and my mind wander into the more esoteric realm of thought. Today while I had little to occupy myself while helping out the hapless Grasshoppers with their energy debacle, my mind wandered to thoughts of John Law. We have just passed through a bubble Dot-Com mania, and I was thinking a bit about the Mississippi Bubble and banking crisis of early 18th century France (Hey, what can I say - sometimes it gets a bit tiring and boring in the petroleum patch). Not only did many investors lose their entire fortunes in the stock market, the French government nearly bankrupted itself under the economic strain.

John Law was a convicted felon, he was a convicted murderer and gambler who left his native Scotland. How fitting it is that so-called honorable men and women credit him with pioneering the use of currency (paper money as the J-man calls it) and bank credit. These are cornerstones of modern finance. It also relieves government from adhering to fiscal discipline. Even though gold and silver coin was a medium of exchange that held its own intrinsic value, paper was easy to create at therefore abuse once the ties to hard assets were cut. This is not to say that abuses under a gold standard did not exist (remember when the Communist � er Democrat FDR made gold ownership illegal, he easily devalued the dollar). Anyway, to make a long story short, the French printed too much currency and the felon John Law's experiment failed miserably.

Now to address the question of a US gold standard. Maybe! But not until the US currency crumbles. The reason is simple - power. Our Government rulers can not stomach giving up power, especially to a populace that they despise. Sure, there are a few who promote a gold standard such as Steve Forbes, Jack Kemp, etc. However, most prefer to have a system of constant crises and reliance on government. Perhaps they feel that they actually have important positions and are "needed." It is easier to fire-up the printing presses than to exhibit some backbone and show some fiscal discipline. For this reason alone we will never see a return to a "Gold Standard," at least not until the US currency collapses and confidence requires a shift to hard assets like PMs. Therefore I say that it is a 100-1 bet against a return to a "Gold Standard." Hey - whadda ya expect - politicians to do the right thing? Gimme a break!

Cheers!

- Black Blade

of ANYTHING!!

The world is full of surprises. The folks who had been using gold as THE transactional medium for over a century were certainly just as sure as you are that that would never change.

Your conviction is interesting. But give me some reasons.

Regards,
Journeyman

In the next 5 years?????
No way.

The gold standard will come only after a complete collapse of the current order. (Which means worldwide.) Odds of that happening are 100%.

I suppose it COULD happen overnight. At any rate, it's just a matter of time......

gf

The time is now come -I will make a prediction that there will never be another gold standard in any country in the world. My prediction is 90% no money will even be used ever again as a means of payment, or goverment currency very few years or months.

Gold silver and all currencies has been trampled under the feet of the peoples the world.All precious metals, rubies diamonds and all other valauables will end up in the hands of one goverment. The The nation of the Mid East.

BUT, it will not favor them for the time has come when, Those who own will own not,those that have will have not, and those that see, see not.

This will be their pay for partaking of the rotten lucre that is the root of all evil. Not all eyes are closed and some have sought after the precious gifts of life.

All this I will change to 100%.
For There are presently banks even now falling never to rise again.

Remember a few years ago that some predictions were laughted into the gutter. Only to be raised up by a weak hand.

The gold standard will return in my lifetime.

deal with it.

Return to THE "gold standard?" I don't know about that.

BUT I give it at least 90 to 10 that there will be WIDE-SPREAD transactions in gold, beginning with the currently expanding "electronic gold" thru James Turk's enterprise and that other one as well as others sure to evolve. Perhaps USAE-GOLD?

Will this put enough stress on some government trying to compete with "transactional gold" to HONESTLY peg their national brand currency to gold because it's being driven out of business?

That would be a gold-standard for THAT country.

Tough call indeed, but unlikely. They would rather go down printing, I'm sure.

Regards,
Journeyman

P.S. I've given my reasons for this prognostication many times over the past months.

P.P.S. Anyone heard from beesting lately?

My humble opinion...although Oro,Journeyman,ET and the rest of the bunch have fought an excellent battle, they will eventually lose the war. Trail Guide undoubtedly, has explained why. I'm afraid that the Gold Standard is now the "barbaric relic" that many attach distastefully to gold itself. My probability rate... 95%

Humbly, Mythical

Short and sweetI would have to say 50% - 50%

If the people controlling paper money end up controlling the gold , Why would they care?

$hifty

OK! The answer to your question is that this was written by Professor von Braun(as quoted). Randy@TheTower kindly provided a link shortly after my post where you may see other articles of his also. He welcomes any E Mail questions sent to him on - regards Murray.

http://199.97.97.163/IMDS%PMANAT0%read%/home/content/users/imds/feeds/comtex/2001/07/03/up/0000-4515-bc-us-electricity-1stld
Snippit:

LOS ANGELES, Jul 03, 2001 (United Press International via COMTEX) -- Just two days after Gov. Gray Davis boasted that Californians had slashed their electricity consumption by 12 percent, a wave of hot, muggy summer weather Tuesday pushed the state's power supply to the brink of rolling blackouts. A Stage Two power alert was issued shortly before noon Tuesday as inland temperatures headed into the 90s and toward the 100-degree mark while coastal temperatures topped 80.

The power industry has bridled at any kind of price ceiling on their wares, and the Los Angeles Times reported that confusion over just what the eventual price would be for the electricity prompted at least five power sellers to back out of the California market on Monday. "Since they don't know what they are going to get paid, they are not going to take the risk and are not going to sell the energy," Ray Hart, deputy director of the California Department of Water Resources, told the Times. It remains to be seen if this unwillingness by some brokers to sell power to California will continue or exacerbate the need for blackouts.


Black Blade: A second day of near blackouts. More telling is a quarterly report I received from Utilicorp (UCU). They make a point of proudly announcing that they have very little exposure to California. Now other power providers are backing off plans to deal with California and yet others are pulling out of the California energy market. The result will be - it won't matter how much conservation and lower voltage is used. Without willing providers to give away power to California, the energy crisis will resume and the state's economy will continue to slide into the abyss. The few remaining Californian Ants should take note and keep making preparations for the coming storm. Couple this with the lack of energy infrastructure and growing scarcity of natural gas. Regulators in California (and other states) focused more on minimizing utility rates rather than allowing companies to operate like - well - like companies. Now the price to be paid is the lack of energy.

Cheap gold translates into cheap portfolio insurance. Prices have fallen back as many absorb the news of desperate measures taken by the unprofitable overhedged Barrick Gold (ABX) acquisition of lightly hedged Homestake (HM). Homestake's unhedged ounces are not enough to keep Barrick afloat when the POG rises. It will come to a point where we will say "Goodbye" to Barrick when their counterparties and creditors kick Munky and Oliphant out of their opulent offices and "send them down the road."

BTW, tomorrow on the 4th, there will be a special on CNBC about the energy crisis. They usually have Matt Simmons of Simmons and Co. Intl. As a guest. Could be "Interesting."

View Yesterday's Discussion.

My reasonsI think (as others here have stated) that it would take such a massive collapse of economic civilization for a return to the gold standard to happen that it is, for all intents and purposes, out of the question. Besides, since I'm really a musician and don't know much about such things - other than what I pick up here and there, and what my gut tells me - that I can afford to be absolutely 100% certain. What's the worst that can happen? I might be wrong, and that's certainly happened before. Since it is an open ended precdiction, I can't be proven wrong unless it actually happens. If it doesn't - it may yet in the future. But, as long as it doesn't, I'm right.

Since I've been on this cycle kick lately, I'll re-post an excerpt from a February post that fits better here than it did then.
-------------------

turbohawg (2/25/2001; 16:11:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 48928)
Cycles
Recently it was my pleasure to read one of George Lindsay's fascinating as hell books, published in �69, in which he explored 3 of the many cycles he discovered.

They are the 36 and 40 year cycles +/- one year, which sometimes are split at 38 years. So this is basically a 35 to 41 year cycle window.

Then there are the 55-57 year and 64-69 year cycles.

...

Lindsay didn't discuss gold, at least not in this particular book, but he did consider the 1896 presidential campaign of William Jennings Bryan an important emotional agitation which led to Keynesianism and related events at cyclic intervals, such as FDR's Raw Deal in the 1930s.

...

Taking Lindsay's work and applying a little armchair cycle analysis of my own, it's quite apparent that regular cycles are at work in the gold market. Count forward 37 years from Bryan's 1896 campaign and you have the 1933 gold confiscation by FDR. Nixon in 1971, 38 years later, took the dollar off the gold standard. The Washington Agreement was signed in 1999, 66 years after the confiscation and in the middle of when the 64-69 year cycle was due. So what's next ? The 35-41 year cycle window after the 1971 move by Nixon falls from 2006 to 2012.

Anyone care to take a stab at what gold related event is most likely to occur in that time frame ?
--------------------

I'll take a stab at my own question. My guess is that it won't be before that timeframe that some sort of official link to gold will be re-established, and it'll happen then as a result of several years of currency chaos.

2006 falls just inside MK's 5 year window from here, but with other cycles not due till some time down the road it's unlikely anything will happen on the front end of that timeframe. So, a gold standard within the next 5 years ? < 1% chance.

hAug

I seem to remember one T. Jefferson wrote, for this day, a document that began, if memory serves:

July 4th, 1776
IN CONGRESS, the thirteen United States of America.

When, in the course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bonds which have united them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the laws of Nature, and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind, requires that they should declare the causes which impell them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident: that all men are created equal; that they are endowed with certain inalienable rights; that among these rights, are Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness; that TO SECURE THESE RIGHTS, GOVERNMENTS ARE INSTITUTED AMONG MEN, DERIVING THEIR JUST POWERS FROM THE CONSENT OF THE GOVERNED. THAT WHENEVER ANY FORM OF GOVERNMENT BECOMES DESTRUCTIVE OF THESE RIGHTS, IT IS THEIR RIGHT, IT IS THEIR DUTY, TO ALTER SUCH GOVERNMENT, AND TO INSTITUTE A NEW GOVERNMENT, laying tis foundations and disposing its powers in such order, as to them shall seem most likely to secure their future safety and happiness.

Prudence, indeed, will dictate that governments long established, shall not be altered for light and transient causes. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations EVINCES A DESIRE TO REDUCE THEM UNDER UTTER DESPOTISM...

***************

Hats off, to the Founding Fathers, who wrote large in the book of history.

Sierra

"That they are endowed BY THEIR CREATOR with certain inalienable rights, ....."

Sierra

No other nation that has an economy that needs credit for inventory pipelines, R&D and all other forms of productivity that require payment for labor and services well in advance of reaching the final consumer, can ever have a gold standard. UNLESS that Gold Standard is based on an artificially high Fiat/Gold ratio held in place by government edict, in which case it is subject to the vagaries of law and disorder and not really a Gold Standard at all.

Michael: Great to see you back in the game. The 'Round Table' is alive and well and living in cyber-city!

For the record, I see 'Gold Standard' as meaning a fiat currency entitling the bearer to use it to redeem a specified amount of gold for a specified number of currency units.

My Free-Gold proposal has gold exchangeable into and out of all currencies at a free-market determined rate, absent of any contractual promises operating as gold substitutes.

To attempt to clarify the opposing viewpoints in the current area of contention:
Borrowing fiat against gold owned is the opposite of putting up money to back a promise to deliver future gold.

Said alternatively: Using gold as collateral to borrow fiat is the opposite of using fiat as collateral for a promise to deliver gold

Warren(57411) Re: ". . .This will be their pay for partaking of the rotten lucre that is the root of all evil"
----------------------------------------------------------
(Warren do you not mean "The LOVE of money" carried to excess?)I venture Sir that money is fundamentally "neutral". It does/will take on the characteristic of the owner thereof though. To a South American drug Lord or a Mafia Don, money takes on a different manifestation or representation than to John Doe supporting his family & paying the 30 year table mortgage. Money is simply a "Medium of Exchange" and in itself is harmless.

http://allafrica.com/stories/200107020188.htmlNothing speaks clearer for the gold (and silver) market that we have reached near bottom than the continuing reports of lay offs & mines closing - Netking
------------------------------------------------------------
Snippit:
"Another 5,000 Free State gold miners will be retrenched in the next few weeks as the tragedy of mass job losses on South Africa's gold mines continues to take its toll.

Sowetan was told another 5 000 workers would lose their jobs "soon" as three more shafts at Anglogold, Gold Fields and Harmony mines in the Free State faced closure. The last and latest mine shaft was closed on June 18, with about 1 000 workers losing their jobs. Ten shafts have been shut down and 150 000 mineworkers retrenched since 1994.

Meanwhile, it has emerged that the National Party (NP) and later the African National Congress (ANC) government had failed to heed warnings of an impending devastating decline in South Africa's gold mining industry and its consequences. . ."

Re your- "The gold standard will return in my lifetime. ---deal with it."

We need to know how old you are and how your lifestyle would affect your positioning on the actuary tables

Can gold be made or reproduced by scientific laboratory processes such as a diamond can and is? If not, why not? Or, is it just a matter of time?

Because if it can, then what's the point of a gold standard?

It's been a long, long time since my formal chemistry classes but my guess is gold, as an element, can never be reproduced.

A diamond, which I was unaware could be reproduced, is a complex compound which theoretically can be. Is the cost to manufacture a diamond more expensive than traditional mining?

USAGOLD (07/03/01; 20:12:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 57394)
"I would like to ask a question of all the members of this esteemed table:
What kind of odds would you give me that the United States government would go back on a gold standard in the next five years? Let's talk numbers. 50-50? 60-40? etc.

Oh, and one more:

What would precipitate it?"

Well, Sir USAGOLD, that's a rather large question. Looking into my secondhand crystal ball:

Starting with the easier parts- what might precipitate it. For a US currency collapse there was the "N horsemen" of the paper-gold separation debate last year- the unknown short position, an OTC derivatives debacle, Big Float's homecoming parade, and so on. Any one of those going down will probably cascade into the others, it would seem.

We are already in a global "economic slowdown", which may (is, imo) be the beginnings of a global "economic collapse". A collpase looks exactly like a slowdown at the beginning. The key event, as Another, Trail Guide, ORO, Randy and others have repeatedly written about is the loss, partial or total, of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency, thus taking away our (the good ol' USA's) exhorbitant free lunch. The currency *has to* depreciate (price-inflation), whether it is accompanied by a monetary contraction (deflation) or no. This process appears to be ramping up now, albeit unevenly. If them furigners replace dollar trade with gold, then we will have to follow suit, leader of the 'free world' or not.

So, five years from now (year 2006) we have, for pretty sure:
1) A decimated and penny-pinching middle class.
2) Same thing for the government.
3) And therefore for the recipients of its largesse.

So we are all going to be a little more thrifty and discerning.

In my view, the US 'hyperpower' is an empire, with some similarites to other empires and many differences. The FRN is one of the keystones of that edifice. I look to the Former Soviet Union as the most similar modern example of a collapsing empire, and to Rome for the historical record. US history has been sort of like Rome's, running at quad-speed. An empire is a type of pyramid scheme, a dynamical system that cannot remain in equilibruim. Like an organism, as it stops expanding (growing) it begins contracting, and we are well into the contraction stage by a number of measures.

Statists have traditional 'solutions' for all this, generally revolving around war and around oppression- c.f. 1930's for example. If the government-worshippers do get completely out of control then of course all bets are off- maybe we all get electrodollar chip implants "for the good of society", or maybe the country begins (or continues) to disintegrate like its best enemy the old Soviet Union. In both cases voila, a de facto gold standard. Maybe the 'interesting times' are a new Dark Ages, maybe a Justinian law replay, maybe corporate fuedalism (globalism) has its day.

The implicit assumption in your question is "the US government exists five years hence", which I'd give a 95-5 to. I give it <40-60 by year 2030, for other reasons not discussed in this forum.

To the first question, will the Statists take a little dip in Lake Reality, this depends on so many things that cannot be quantifed. We have such a huge population now of media-thought-controlled, public-educated raised, corn-fed Statists that beleive in miracles.

The question is enormous.

A number, just for the heck of it- 50-50

Indeed a Day worthy of much celebrations - and many more, cheers. "S"

Canuck (7/4/01; 04:07:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 57429)
@ Steve H.
It's been a long, long time since my formal chemistry classes but my guess is gold, as an element, can never be reproduced.

"A diamond, which I was unaware could be reproduced, is a complex compound which theoretically can be. Is the cost to manufacture a diamond more expensive than traditional mining?"

Diamond is simply one of the crystalline forms (called allotropes) of pure carbon, the other form is graphite. (Graphenes are a subset of graphite, imo). carbon is an element, like gold, lead tin copper, aluminum, oxygen- the 92 natural flavors that atoms come in.
Low-quality, tiny diamonds have been manufactured for maybe thirty years (I'm guessing), mostly for abrasives. Newer techniques use chemical vapor deposition (CVD), sometimes directly onto an existing diamond. One process can be used on plastics and other firms surfaces, so you could have diamond coated plastic lenses for example (these may already be commercialized).
As for gem-quality, here there be tigers. If it is not economically feasible now it surely will be in the not-distant future. Maybe a lab in Siberia really is cranking out warehouses full of them, I wouldn't bet any gold on it either way.


SteveH (7/4/01; 03:19:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 57428)
"Can gold be made or reproduced by scientific laboratory processes such as a diamond can and is? If not, why not? Or, is it just a matter of time?"


Gold can only be made on Earth and in the rest of the known Universe by transmution- by changing some other element(s) into gold atoms. It's been done using particle accelerators at a low, low price of $10 gadzillion/Oz (July, 2001 $). Don't even begin to think of this as an economically feasible alternative, not now and probably not ever. Also, if it becomes possible to build a gold-making transmutator machine, this would not change anything. The machine would function economically precisely like a gold mine, costs and all.

Journeyman (07/03/01; 10:05:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 57375)
Two fewer bid-asks @Turnaround, Peter Asher, ORO

Hi Turnaround!

"If I'm not mistaken (could be of course) I believe ORO means that transactions done directly in gold don't require cross-currency exchanges. Fiat to different-fiat transactions require an intermediary to translate the first currrency, probably in a transactional gold world, thru gold first, into the second fiat.

For this service, you are charged transaction fees or "money changers'" charges. You can see them in the bid-ask spread at a "cambio" in a "foreign" airport for example. In a sense, they are the "profit" a middle man charges you to "buy" his product, which in this case is another currency.

You [incur] these to some degree, in addition to any other "transfer" fees, etc. anytime you convert one currency into another.

Thus transactions in gold have an inherent advantage in cross-currency exchanges."


You nailed it, thanks so much! It was the bid/ask *spread* in transactions that threw me.

correction-
"transmution" should be "transmutation" in 'transmutator' post.

Diamonds are, for simplicity, extremely compressed graphite or carbon. It's the previous difficulty of reproducing the conditions for doing such extreme compression that kept commercial diamonds off the market and from competing with natural diamonds for quite awhile.

Of course, DeBeers did an even better job of keeping diamonds off the market and the price high!

I beleive "cubic zirconium" is what they call synthetic diamonds these days. Originally you could, with an educated eye and a loupe, easily distinguish between these and natural diamonds because, unlike natural diamonds, the synthetic diamonds are flawless. A pawn-broker friend of mine tells me that now they have refined the process to produce flaws in the synthetics, and it's more difficult to distinguish them from the "real" thing.

In the case of gold, as Turnaround points out, we don't have to worry about a sudden increase in gold supply from labs.

A quick and dirty way to look at this in relation to synthetic diamonds -- just common carbon compressed in a particular way -- is, "Would specially compressed _gold_ be more or less valuable than regular gold?"

Regards,
Journeyman

Ah, sorry, Strad Master - - -

I shot first and asked questions later, but well before I discovered your post was an answer to USAGOLD's question!

Regards,
Journeyman

High Sierra! (couldn't resist)

Wow! The old Declaration sure sounds radical when you capitalize the operative part doesn't it?

Regards,
Journeyman

Hi Peter!

You've really got it pegged:

"Borrowing fiat against gold owned is the opposite of putting up money to back a promise to deliver future gold.
+
Said alternatively: Using gold as collateral to borrow fiat is the opposite of using fiat as collateral for a promise to deliver gold." -Peter Asher msg#: 57424

But people have been thinking backwards about this for several decades now - - - even some posters here;)

Repitition is, they say, the first principle of education so - - - don't stop -- don't stop!!

Regards,
Journeyman

P.S. Will help when I can.

What can of independence is the USA celebrating today? You have 2 US companies, GE and honeywell, they wish to get together. However, they are been discouraged from doing so, by some folks many thousand miles away. Is this any of their business? Does the USA really have independence?

n. 1 The quality or condition of being independent, esp. freedom from dependence upon or control by others.

Sorry folks, not much independence left in the good ol' U.S.A.

The Supreme Court says, "We own you and there is NOTHING you can do about it."


Liberty (lib`er-tee)
n. 1 The state of being free in action or thought from the domination of others or from restricting circumstances; freedom. 2 Common catch word used on American Coinage, doesn't mean much any more.

Every body have a happy Quatro de Julio

The following first appeared in the original form (as written by Nathaniel Hawthorne) in the July, 1998 issue of News & Views. I've included my original Editor's Note -- still applicable today. I thought it would be interesting to resurrect this "Tale" given the occasion American's celebrate today along with the fact that some interesting discussion has been posted on the Strauss/Howe book, "The Fourth Turning." Today we celebrate the document that changed the world -- The Declaration of Independence. Here is a glimpse of another "Greatest Generation" -- the one that preceded, laid the groundwork for and spurred the Founders. Enjoy. God bless America all that it stands for!

I'll post something on the "Gold Standard Update" later today.

*********************

(Editor's Note: We first introduced our readers to Hawthorne's Gray Champion about two years ago after first running into the story in Strauss and Howe's "Fourth Turning" -- an excellent book. I was so moved by the story that I decided to track it down in the original. To my immense satisfaction, Hawthorne did not disappoint. Our first rendering (which generated quite a response from News & Views readers) was Strauss and Howe's interpretation of the Hawthorne text. Since then, we have added thousands of readers who may not know about our ghostly "gray patriarch." The following is from Hawthorne's original and it is fitting that we re-print it in July -- the month we celebrate our independence from monarchial tyranny. For those who do not remember the story, this event occurred in 1689 before the beginning of the American Revolution. The British had decided to crush the budding movement in New England for self-rule. We pick up the story as British Governor Sir Edmond Andros marches his troops through the streets of Boston in a show of force. Suddenly, an old man "displaying the face of antique majesty, rendered doubly venerable by the hoary beard that descended on his breast" steps in the path of the advancing British troops.)

**********************

The Gray Champion
by Nathaniel Hawthorne

"Stand!" cried he.

The eye, the face, and attitude of command; the solemn, yet warlike peal of that voice, fit either to rule a host in the battlefield or be raised to God in prayer was irresistible. At the old man's word and outstretched arm, the roll of the drum was hushed at once, and the advancing line stood still. A tremulous enthusiasm seized upon the multitude. That stately form, combining the leader and the saint, so gray, so dimly seen, in such an ancient garb, could only belong to some old champion of the righteous cause, whom the oppressor's drum had summoned from his grave. They raised a shout of awe and exultation, and looked for the deliverance of New England.

The Governor, and the gentlemen of his party, perceiving themselves brought to an unexpected stand, rode hastily forward, as if they would have pressed their snorting and affrighted horses right against the hoary apparition. He, however, blenched not a step, but glancing his severe eye round the group, which half encompassed him, at last bent it sternly on Sir Edmund Andros. One would have thought that the dark old man was chief ruler there, and that the Governor and Council, with soldiers at their back, representing the whole authority of the Crown, had no alternative but obedience.

"What does this old fellow here?" cried Edward Randolph, fiercely. "On, Sir Edmund! Bid the soldiers forward, and give the dotard the same choice that you give all his countrymen--to stand aside or be trampled on!" "Nay, nay, let us show respect to the good grandsire," said Bullivant, laughing. See you not, he is some old round-headed dignitary, who hath lain asleep these thirty years, and knows nothing of the change of times?
Doubtless, he thinks to put us down with a proclamation in Old Noll's name!"

Andros, in loud and harsh tones. "How dare you stay the march of King James's Governor?"

"I have stayed the march of a King himself, ere now," replied the gray figure, with stern composure. "I am here, Sir Governor, because the cry of an oppressed people hath disturbed me in my secret place; and beseeching this favor earnestly of the Lord, it was vouchsafed me to appear once again in the good old cause of his saints. And what speak ye of James? There is no longer a Popish tyrant on the throne of England, and by tomorrow noon, his name shall be a byword in this very street, where ye would make it a word of terror. Back, thou that wast a Governor, back! With this night thy power is ended--tomorrow, the prison!-- back, lest I foretell the scaffold!"

The people had been drawing nearer and nearer, and drinking in the words of their champion, who spoke in accents long disused, like one unaccustomed to converse, except with the dead of many years ago. But his voice stirred their souls. They confronted the soldiers, not wholly without arms, and ready to convert the very stones of the street into deadly weapons. Sir Edmund Andros looked at the old man; then he cast his hard and cruel eye over the multitude, and beheld them burning with that lurid wrath, so difficult to kindle or to quench; and again he fixed his gaze on the aged form, which stood obscurely in an open space, where neither friend nor foe had thrust himself. What were his thoughts, he uttered no word which might discover. But whether the oppressor were overawed by the Gray Champion's look, or perceived his peril in the threatening attitude of the people, it is certain that he gave back, and ordered his soldiers to commence a slow and guarded retreat. Before another sunset, the Governor, and all that rode so proudly with him, were prisoners, and long ere it was known that James had abdicated, King William was proclaimed throughout New England.

But where was the Gray Champion? Some reported that, when the troops had gone from King Street, and the people were thronging tumultuously in their rear, Bradstreet, the aged Governor, was seen to embrace a form more aged than his own. Others soberly affirmed, that while they marveled at the venerable grandeur of his aspect, the old man had faded from their eyes, melting slowly into the hues of twilight, till, where he stood, there was an empty space. But all agree that the hoary shape was gone. The men of that generation watched for his reappearance, in sunshine and in twilight, but never saw him more, nor knew when his funeral passed, nor where his gravestone was.

And who was the Gray Champion? Perhaps his name might be found in the records of that stern Court of Justice, which passed a sentence, too mighty for the age, but glorious in all after-times, for its humbling lesson to the monarch and its high example to the subject. I have heard, that whenever the descendants of the Puritans are to show the spirit of their sires, the old man appears again. When eighty years had passed, he walked once more in King Street. Five years later, in the twilight of an April morning, he stood on the green, beside the meeting-house, at Lexington, where now the obelisk of granite, with a slab of slate inlaid, commemorates the first fallen of the Revolution. And when our fathers were toiling at the breastwork on Bunker's Hill, all through that night the old warrior walked his rounds. Long, long may it be, ere he comes again! His hour is one of darkness, and adversity, and peril. But should domestic tyranny oppress us, or the invader's step pollute our soil, still may the Gray Champion come, for he is the type of New England's hereditary spirit; and his shadowy march, on the eve of danger, must ever be the pledge, that New England's sons will vindicate their ancestry.

As long as some people of influence and power believe in the gold standard, there is always the possibility it will return, especially if a president and treasury secretary strongly believed in it. A crumbled economy and a shattered dollar could help.

The odds: one chance in five.

Money:Netking, You are right all money is "neutral". But, I say unto you, Whether you be rich or poor, a drug lord, a banker, or a housewife the thoughts of money replaces all other thoughts in a day.

Reread your post in the light of the debt and freedom, The rich and the poor, and the dieing at the door in many nations. You have made my point. No nation can survive without a sound means of exchange- Now, Who will tell us what money is? Who will exchange their riches for their nation?

Is it not true that the kings of gold and silver steal away the life blood of a people in the daylight?

what a man thinks makes the road either straght or crooked.

This nation is on the verge of being canned and the lid wound tight. Because we have walked the crooked road.

We will see,

Thanks,

Fine tale on this fine holiday morning.
I could not help but think, when I read <<< for he is the type of New England's hereditary spirit; >>> that our most outspoken advocate of the Freedom thus described is our Forum member from new England
i

The question is quite complex in that you are asking how a bunch of panicy, power hungry leaders might react in the crunch.

Assuming things go on as they are for the USD, then the answer is clear, never.

Assuming the other end of the scale, (which gets my vote) wherein the USD hits the crapper, the USD will cease to exist, and therefore again the answer is, never. (it is possible that something else CALLED the USD might attempt a rise out of these ashes.)(and it may even be gold backed)

Along the way, in the fight to save the treasury, all sorts of things are possible from people that are not quite rational. It is just possible that someone will come up with this solution, (of a gold backed currency) and it might get enough support that it might be tried. I doubt this option, because I expect the confiscation of precious metals long before.

But then, as I have posted before, I expect the breakup of the US as it exists today, so you will not have a USD, even if it is called that. Can you call the USSR ruble the same as the current Russian ruble? Is it the same? Some will argue Yes, with some logic.

As to timeframe, that is a matter of the confidence of the sheeple. When does Armaggedon first become apparent to them? The trigger mechanism to that confidence is probably economically related, ie recession, depression, whatever word is politically correct. I am inclined toward a view that this fall might have a high risk factor in that context. (Certainly this decade) This process will take some time to unfold, altho some parts of it will be blindingly fast. The fall of the USD, in this context, will take 2 or 3 years to play out, and possibly longer.

So, adding your question up, including the continued existence of the US, the USD, etc. etc. and whether such an effort might be classified as permanent, (ie last more than say 10 years) I put the odds near infinity, against.

j'Bear

I would bet that, the odds of returning to the gold standard is about 100-1 probability against. The bankers would not give up their privileges so easily.

Of course, the public can force the gold standard to the bankers if they avoid debt and avoid depositing money in the banks. These include, avoiding credit cards, avoiding mortgages, paying all purchases in full cash, saving in gold and stock market - with an eye on the market valuation (say, never permitting P/E ratios greater than 16-17).

Looks like a remote possibility, but who knows?

cubic zirconium "diamond"FWIW such merchandizing handles like "cubic ziconium" are not an apt description of substances. The "zirconium" supposedly is further misdirection and used to give the public something to recognize >>> zircon. It is not this mineral either. Cubic zirconium is a man-made mineral that has a refractive index greater than diamond - and hence more fire than the dense carbon compound that we know as diamond. In nature cubic zirconium is referred to as titanite or sphene, a not uncommon mineral of igneous and metamorphic rocks. Chemically it is CaOTiO2SiO2, an oxide/silicate, roughly speaking titanium oxide. In nature it only rarely has the transparency suitable for cutting into gems. But because of this, it is rarer in gem form than diamond. (But because of the "dumb public" factor never is recognized.)

The other one that I "enjoy" is "Alaskan Black Diamond" aka hematite, an iron ore (oxide) mineral.

It kind of makes sense in the world of commerce to exploit peoples ignorance in these more technical areas. (Under the circumstances how else does one do it?) If people were more sophisticated there would not be the opportunities for these sorts of shenanigans - kinda like the continuing suppression of the pm markets. If people were paying attention the movers and shakers would not be able to pull this stuff off - nor would we have the same propensities to blow up bubbles to popping size (smile).

That the lowest common denominator of societal awareness is more or less at the same level and never catches up with the sophistication levels of those who can manipulate the rules ensures a human history of boom and bust. The cubic zirconium thing and a ton of other examples is a microcosm thingy. The public at large is too disinterested in too many areas where they should be scruitinizing very, very carefully. These ommisions of interest doom the majority to exploitation and sets them up to be fleeced (or bombed or asphyxiated, or poisoned or,...)

Or maybe it's just information overload?

G.

Hi Galearis!

Thanks for the lesson!!

And I concurr -- it seems most people are bamboozled because they aren't paying attention to the important stuff!

Or maybe it IS info overload;>

Regards,
Journeyman

http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/WireFeedRedirect?cf=GlobeInvestor/config&date=20010630&archive=gam&slug=STMAIN30
The mainstream view of that perplexing labyrinth that continually frustrates the gold advocate,that wacky world of relative currency values.According to York University professor Moshe Milevsky,the futures market is saying that we can look out three years into the future and see little change in the $US value.Something about the collective wisdom of the market.This being the same market that says the NASDAQ was fairly valued at 5000 in the spring of 2000?

Another snippet from the article:

"The dramatic easing of monetary policy.Cyclically sensitive currencies like the Canadian and Australian dollars tend to do well when the global monetary authoriksties are busy trying to 'reflate' the system."

Please don't forget the 'other' currency,the one(in the final outcome),that cannot be adjusted by authorities busy trying to manipulate
some kind of politically motivated outcome.

Have a great independence day,USA and USAGOLD.

http://www.usagold.com2 AMERICAS

There are 2 Americas. Crazy, you say, let me explain. One America is the descendents of Thomas Jefferson, George Washingtion, Patrick Henry, and Abraham Lincoln. They believe in freedom,free enterpise, and the dignity and rights of the individual.They believe in opportunity and the freedom to try and suceed and even fail. They claim the heritage passed to them by these great Americans and others. They believe in individual liberty. They claim the rights written in the Constitution.These Americans are everywhere.

But there is another Amerika. It is the Amerika that believes that individual rights should be sacrificed. It is the Amerika that believes we need welfare to protect us from our foolishness, it is the Amerika that believes Social Security will provide for our future, and it is the Amerika that believes in an Income |Tax to make sure that those who have will provide for those who have not. It is the Amerika that believes it is too dangerous for individuals to have guns. These Amerikans are everywhere to.

April 15 is the time that this divide between the 2 Americas becomes most apparent. Amerikans demand that Americans go to the post office with their money surrendering their rights as they go: it is madatory yet voluntary. And many, not yet sure whether they are Amerikans or Americans, yield to the pressure but inside � knowing that something is not quite right and that something has been lost. And it is the time Americans remind Amerikans of the shackle on their leg, and remind them of what they once were.

The visions clash. The Amerika that Amerikans want does not fit into the vision that Americans had over 200 years ago.A square vision which does not fit into the round hole of the Constitution.

May the descendents of the Sons and Daughters of Liberty rise up and take back America from Amerikans. ******
****************************************************


Bob Scultz, of We the People,has started a hunger fast to force the IRS to answer some questions.See article on www.worldnetdaily.com. Bob believes that the IRS will answer his Petition for redress of grievences rather than watch an innocent man starve to death. He is wrong. They will watch him starve to death rather than admit any wrong doing or answer legitimate questions regarding their authority. Evil is like that.

**********************************************************

This Fourth of July let us remember, and tell our children, we are heirs to the greatest heritage on Earth.
**********************************************************


"We have given you a republic,if you can keep it"-BEN FRANKLIN

Hi folks!

There is wisdom in IMF regulations that don't permit exchange rates between (fiat) currencies to be issued or settled in gold units.

Why, do you suppose, they wrote that regulation?

Regards,
Journeyman

http://www.ratical.com/many_worlds/6Nations/FF.html

Benjamin Franklin, the Iroquois and the Rationale for the American Revolution

Snippit - (From an introduction by the author):

To describe the Iroquoian system would not be enough, however. I would have to show how the unique geopolitical context of the mid-eighteenth century brought together Iroquois and Colonial leaders -- the dean of whom was Franklin -- in an atmosphere favoring the communication of political and social ideas: how, in essence, the American frontier became a laboratory for democracy precisely at a time when Colonial leaders were searching for alternatives to what they regarded as European tyranny and class stratification.

At times, Indian peace was as important to the history of the continent as Indian war, and the mid-eighteenth century was such a time. Out of English efforts at alliance with the Iroquois came a need for treaty councils, which brought together leaders of both cultures. And from the earliest days of his professional life, Franklin was drawn to the diplomatic and ideological interchange of these councils -- first as a printer of their proceedings, then as a Colonial envoy, the beginning of one of the most distinguished diplomatic careers in American history. Out of these councils grew an early campaign by Franklin for Colonial union on a federal model, very similar to the Iroquois system.

Contact with Indians and their ways of ordering life left a definite imprint on Franklin and others who were seeking, during the pre-Revolutionary period, alternatives to a European order against which revolution would be made. To Jefferson, as well as Franklin, the Indians had what the colonists wanted: societies free of oppression and class stratification. The Iroquois and other Indian nations fired the imaginations of the revolution's architects. As Henry Steele Commager has written, America acted the Enlightenment as European radicals dreamed it. Extensive, intimate contact with Indian nations was a major reason for this difference.


Black Blade: On this day that we in the USA celebrate our independence from European tyrants. How did the Revolutionary leaders and the Continental Congress come to develop a system of government that would respect the rights of the citizen? Perhaps the earlier inhabitants of North America had a more profound effect on the new nation than is taught in today's government education centers. This is a long detailed read, however, for those with a bit of time before flipping a few steaks and slicing a melon or two, sit down with a beer or six and read an interesting history of how are most famous founding fathers came to create a new (or not so new) system of government. Cheers!

Hi ski!

Cool!! Looking forward to more.

Regards,
Journeyman

Since the demise of Bretton Woods on Aug. 15, 1971 no paper currency was linked to gold -the first time ever in history. An experience, while young in terms of the history of money, in the classical sense, has since brought on more financial, economic and currency crises, as at any time before.
As gold is a political metal, or better money, with a historical function of disciplining excess monetary creation and also was observed as the main barometer for the inherent health of the ecomomic system.
In the aftermath of 1971 the US$, already being the only Reserve Currency, rapidly became the only safe haven currency as well; And this occurred in spite of the US deteriorating from the premier credit nation to the premier debt nation of the world; Accompanied by bulging trade imbalances, no savings and now even heading rapidly towards sub real rates of return.
Excuse me, for my banal recount of above, though it seems to serve my purpose as to MK's quest as to the probability of a new gold standard. I feel this outcome is probably nil - but let's wait for the Genoa Conference later this month -, which may be the most important summit on todays currency system.
... And as would be more than happy to regain a free market - not for gold alone - but for the sake of free enterprise and not for the idea of globalization by all means, which comes akin to oppression of the poor now and all of us later.

Have a great Independence Day - Regards cb2

To all the American posters and USAgold. Remember,

'America is a concept, not just a place'.

Somewhere, there are people like the founding fathers, we just havn't found us yet.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/national/20010703-2392223.htm
European authorities flexing their muscles to the detriment of US financial interests?The horror!Far be it for the US to act in a manner that undermines foreigners economic interests.Can I ask a question,Mr. O'Neill; can you give us an honest answer to GATA's assertions on US involvement in managing the gold price?There are 5000 "retrenched" miners in South Africa who would probably like to know as well.

Is there perhaps a little irony in these statements on the issue from Mr. O'Neill:

"The European regulatory process is in my judgement flawed in the sense that the people making the judgements are not elected by anyone and their judgements are not subject to a judicial review or any kind of relief."

"What the EU is doing is a far reach from looking at questions that are directly at interest to the EU and reaching into the affairs of other countries."

It seems to me that there is another regulatory body that would fit into these quotes quite well;the Federal Reserve.

Hi ALL!

M.K. asked what we-all thought the odds of the U.S. returning to a gold-standard (dollar defined, as per the U.S. constitution, as a specific mass (weight) of gold).

The consensus seems to be very long odds.

But a follow-up question, "Would you personally _prefer_ a gold standard?"

If you decide to answer, what's your main reason(s) pro or con?

Regards,
Journeyman

Just got up as far as your post. We should campaign to have April 15th declared a holiday named 'National Dependence Day'.

Megatron. . . . . . . 100-1 probablility against

Mountain Gold. . . . . 100-1 probablility against

Netking . . . . . . .. 60-40 probability againt

Auspec . . . . . . . . 85-15 probability against

Stradmaster. . . . . . 100-1 probablility against (in the key of E)

Black Blade. . . . . . 100-1 probablility against

Goldfly. . . . . . . . 100-1 probablility against (any new songs lately??)

Warren. . . . . . . . .90-10 probability against

Ross L. . . . . . . . .A certainty. It will happen.

Journeyman. . . . . . .Doesn't know.

Mythical. . . . . . . .95-5 probability against

Shifty. . . . . . . . .50-50 (firmly tacked to the fence)

Turbo. . . . . . . . . 100-1 probability against

Peter Asher. . . . . . 100-1 (make that "never")

Turnaround. . . . . . .50-50 (sitting next to Shifty)

Van Rip . . . . . . . .80-20 probability against

j'Bear. . . . . . . . .100-1 probability against (or "infinity" whichever comes first.)

ge. . . . . . . . . . . 100-1 probablility against

Cobra(too). . . . . . . 100-1 probability against (or nil, or hide the women and children the finance ministers and central bankers are meeting.)

I hope I didn't miss anyone. If I did let me know and we'll get it fixed or the next update.

This is getting interesting. I think Strad said it best:

"What's the worst that can happen? I might be wrong, and that's certainly happened before. Since it is an open ended precdiction, I can't be proven wrong unless it actually happens. If it doesn't - it may yet in the future. But,
as long as it doesn't, I'm right."

Where are all the lurkers -- all those goldmeisters who have been looking for an excuse to finally use that posting code.
You can't get hurt on this one.

For those wondering what precipitated the "Update" below, here's the question that was posed last night ----

I would like to ask a question of all the members of this esteemed table:

What kind of odds would you give me that the United States government would go back on a gold standard in
the next five years? Let's talk numbers. 50-50? 60-40? etc.

Oh, and one more:

What would precipitate it?

After we've kicked that one for awhile, I'll have a follow up for you.

MK ask -- "What kind of odds would you give me that the United States government would go back on a gold standard in
the next five years?"
===
NEVER happen, because it would be against the "game rules"!
===
HOWEVER, Both The Wiz and the Hobbits are already on a GOLD STANDARD !!
<;-)

@ Journeyman, ORO, TG & AllFor gold to be optimal as a storage of value, the rate of exchange between it and the local currency must remain stable. As a gold standard cannot operate in an advanced, division of labor, inventory and long distance shipping economy, the currency 'value' of gold, must be artificially propped up. Also, as the relationship of currency units to products of labor is determined by "The Power to Command Price" by marketing position or scarcity/abundance factors, price 'flations will always occur. Therefore gold as a Currency Standard, cannot remain stable in purchasing unit terms.


For gold to function as we here wish it to, it must exist free of any currency link and interact with purchasing units directly. IMO of course, this is not yet empirical data but I'm working on it J

That sould read 'For a gold standard 'to' operate in ----

already on a GOLD STANDARD !!
My point: exactly!

megatron (07/04/01; 10:47:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 57454)
"Happy July 4th
To all the American posters and USAgold. Remember,

'America is a concept, not just a place'.

Somewhere, there are people like the founding fathers, we just havn't found us yet."

I thought at first this was a typo.

Back to my fence now.

Midas SnippetThe following comes out of a report called "The Friday Sheet" by Brent Cook who is a resource stock analyst/geologist {if my read is right on his identity}:

"The 'strategic' merger of Barrick and Homestake must be based on Barrick's belief that gold prices are headed higher, otherwise the deal appears to make no economic sense {barring hedge book concerns}. Gold how much higher?"
"Barrick paid ~$152/oz for Homestake's ~21mil oz in reserves. Assuming Homestake's total cash production costs of $174 over the entire 21 mil oz {highly unlikely}, in rough terms that means ABX needs to see a minimum of $326 gold to just break even on this purchase."
The resulting new Barrick is a formidable company in a rising gold market. They become the world's second largest international gold producer with an estimated pro-forma production of ~6mil oz/yr, 18mil sold forward at an average of $345/oz and a stated reserve base of 79mil oz. The deal was described as a merging of the operational, financial and human resources of the two. Interestingly, no mention is made where the earnings to cover the US$2.3bil deal will come from."
"The question now becomes, how do you replace the core deposits, the deposits that allow these companies to survive and boast of their low cash costs to mutual fund managers? Assuming Pierre Lassonde's {President Franco-Nevada} assessments of the gold industry premiums is accurate, a major producer can either: 1}cough up a substantial premium {followed by a subsequent write off somewhere down the road} or 2}discover one of these gare deposits."
This is really the subtext to today's sheet: mergers and acquisitions will not supply or replace the core deposits needed for the major gold producers to survive and maintain current production levels. The majors are becoming increasingly desperate for low cost ounces."END

Comment: According to this commentary Barrick pays $2.3bil for annual earnings of $25mil approx. Quite a deal there boys. Few of us would be willing to overlook the hedgebook rationale for this deal, but it is interesting nonetheless. It must be the hedgebook or much higher POG expected or this deal is just foolishness.

100-1 Against.

Gold IS real money.

The bankers are pushing us toward a cashless society. They already want to do away with checks. They would be defeating their own purposes to go back to hard assets.

Eventually (sooner rather than later) we're headed toward the totally cashless "Mark of the Beast" system.

But gold will have real value until and unless its ownership is banned. (Then it goes underground.)

Blessings & Happy 4th!

BD

OK OK....I will come out into the sunlight long enough to state my guess on the probability of a gold standard within the next five years in the USA. The odds have to be 100 to 1 against this.
A gold standard is too restrictive to the government. They have had a lot of freedom to inflate the fiat whenever they felt "we needed it". They will not give up that freedom easily.

Happy Fourth of July to all..

Now back into the shadows...

Most of us see the Middle East sliding into a state of regional war. My own gut hunch, nukes will fly, especially if Saddam & Syria get a bad case of the crazies and start launching chemical or biological Scuds.

If this proves true, what do the prognosticators on this board see as likely impact on the following prices and indexes in the first 30 days following "the morning after," assuming no nukes land in North America.

All responses welcome.

Please guesstimate with numbers.

Dow Jones:

Duck:

POO:

POG:

What are the chances of going back to a gold standard?

Well, it's been about 68 years since we truly were on a gold standard. During the course of time, since that time, many events of far greater unimaginable consequence have taken place. In recalling each of the following, ask what the probability of the occurance would have been, if asked five years prior, by the people effected.

An invasion of all European countries by one militaristic regime, led by one psychopathic dictator; after only 20 years since the "War To End All Wars."

A simultaneous war occuring in an opposite region of the world, sparked by the baiting of a foreign country into attacking a "sleeping giant."

The fision of the atom, resulting in horrific energy capability to annihilate all forms of life - and resulting in the beginning of an era of MAD. (Which we still live in today)

Another "undeclared" war in South East Asia, which commenced within ten years of an equally undeclared war in South East Asia. Lasting over ten years and destroying countless lives and resources.

A president of the U.S. utilizing the White House as his private brothel and fundraising resource.

A U.S. trade deficit of 400 billion annually, along with printing over 50% of the world's reserve assets, while productivity has declined to the lowest level since WW II. (per Dr. Richebacher)

Ok, enough of the unbelievable. What would precipitate the return to a gold standard? History repeating itself once again. 68 years vs. 5000 years.

Oh, 100% sure we'll be back there someday. Gold will be the only wealth, as it's always beeen. 50-50 within the next 5 years however.

Salutations,
IronHead

Journeyman(57456)Re:"followup question . . . "
-----------------------------------------------------------
Netking> Why?. . . Because of "CONFIDENCE" Sir Journeyman. The people, any people, want to know that when they exchange their human capital from their endeavours for a medium of exchange that it is/will be worth what their capital says it was at the time of the transaction or endeavour.

It's not enough to know that they(you or me) will accept the fiat, will everbody else accept it to? Therein the flow chart points back to . . . "CONFIDENCE" regards Murray
-----------------------------------------------------------
BullDrooy(57468)= N/A as no nukes will fly(yet IMO),war (despite posturings to the contrary)would be strictly regional, civil, conventional, internal. . . the same old, same old. This is the day of the NWO!(new world order)

http://itn.co.uk/news/20010704/world/08rats.shtmlSnippit:
"Grinding poverty is driving the people of the northern Mexico to eat rats. And the problem has become so widespread that there are now fears that the rodents may become extinct in the region. . ."
----------------------------------------------------------
God forbid this predicament would ever befall the USA or anything close to it, but it shows why Mexico bravely even now considers a silver backed currency for the sake of it's people. . .

......and few will give a crispy rat's arse.
Regards

As I've already confessed to banality (in my post)- what in all probability my words didn't profess - and Gandalf hit the nail square - the Hobbits already got one! Or would we all buy physical, if we we didn't believe gold to return to the objective of true measurement of value(and values) instead of the relativity of floating measures of proclivity of the fiat paper - to oblivion.

Give me a free market of physical gold - it won't have to be measured in (any)currency - as it will find its natural equilibrium, or its own bouyancy against all goods and services, without the distraction of paper (derivative)
action as a fake proxy for pricing mechanism, a schiism, which again,to the disdain of all producers of real goods has them 'em in the woods.

... 't may be wishful thinking, though that may be the gold standard I'd love to accept, you bet! ... In other words - as a gold standard in todays monetary system seems impossible, even at FOA's 30.000$/oz it won't ever be convertible again - let gold be again the arbitrator of value and reality in the plight of humanity to go back to the natural rule of supply/demand at hand.

... or would you rather, or better chose to participate
in the overblown (bubble) derivative position of JPM/Chase-
in waiting of the malaise to blow to da moon, soon?

... ramblings of a leeetle frustrated -cb2

First, and most importantly, you said:
-----"We still have a fundamental difference that you or TG will not acknowledge. You continue to refuse this point and it is causing a large difficulty among the contributors to this forum. Please address or acknowledge this difference or the silence will split us all."------

What is the fundamental difference to which you refer? I can't address it if I don't know what it is that you perceive as a difference.

On another point, I've seen it mentioned a time or two that some posters are disgruntled during times that I "fall silent", or they perceive that as a hole in my position.

Frankly, I have found that people need silence in order to do their OWN thinking. This is the only way many people will ever fully accept one position over another -- by their own grasp. Clearly, the more I try to "TELL" you outright, the more you seemingly reject. But,(!) ...have I gotten you to THINK at all? That is my goal. And as time unfolds, I put my money where my thoughts are. Gold!

Speaking of "money", one month ago I planted the seeds of this presentation with the question, "What is SOUND money?" Now, it is more clear than ever that the appropriate starting question should have been "What is MONEY?"

Ross, you said to me in your post, ---"Randy, of course, you are defining what we call paper money, which is currency. This is not defining gold money, the real money."-----

I ask you, Ross, can you be so sure, deep within your own mind, that mankind's concept of "money" is what you want it to be? I know what gold is. Gold is gold. We can hold it in our hands. However, when a beggar asks you for money, what is it that you put into his hands? Is it "money" that now rests in his dirty palm, or it it just the official representation of "money"? He asked for money, and you gave him something. So, as you look into his occupied hand before he plunges it all into his pocket, what are you seeing there? Money? Or merely a representation of money? Or is it gold? Or is it a representation of gold? What is this thing called "money" that everyone works so diligently for in their everyday lives?

This very important question is open to all.

You wrote:

"Gold is durable. Fiat currency lacks durability! War is not peace. Currency is not money. Who changed the definition of money?"

Through slight alteration, let me put this in a form that I could agree to say.

'Gold is durable. Fiat currency lacks durability! War is not peace. Currency is not WEALTH. Who formed your definition of money?'

Your thoughts???

Hi Sir Randy!

Yur absolutely right! History proves almost ANYTHING can and has been used for money. Wampum, cigarettes - - - paper IOUs, etc.

The problem is that almost invariably when something other than gold and/or silver are used, very bad things happen, things much much worse than the worst that has ever happened when gold was THE money.

And usually the "little guys" are the ones hurt the most, far too often costing lives in various ways, while the prepetrators enrich themselves at everyone elses' expense.

And as beesting via Ron Paul pointed out, the use of paper money is what have made the majority of the 20th Century's wars possible, and certainly as violent as they were.

Regards,
Journeyman

By the way, is beesting still with us??

http://www.usagold.com
THOSE STATING THERE IS A 100 TO 1 CHANCE OF RETUNING TO THE GOLD STANDARD ARE WILDLY OPTIMISTIC.

THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE OF RETURNING TO THE GOLD STANDARD. CONGRESS, THE FEDERAL RESERVE, ALL BIG GOVERNMENT ADVOCATES,LEFTISTS,SOCIALISTS,DEMOCRATS AND THE CENTRAL BANK POWERS OF THE WORLD ARE UNALTERABLY OPPOSSED TO THE IDEA. THERE WILL BE NO RETURN TO THE GOLD STANDARD.

THE GOLD STANDARD IS ONE OF THOSE RIGHTS IN THE CONSTITUTION THAT WE HAVE LOST FOREVER.

A MORE RELEVANT QUESTION WOULD BE:


WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF GOLD BEING CONFISCATED?

And using anything other than gold and/or silver as money doesn't just hurt the "little guy" - - - it's far more devastating to everyone in the whole affected culture than anything else could be, except, possibly, a nuclear strike or massive meteor hits.

Regards,
Journeyman

For those of you pessimistic about some GOVERNMENT or CENTRAL BANK reinstituting a gold standard, I have good news and good news.

The good news is, as far as a government or central bank instituting a gold standard, you're almost certainly correct.

The other good news is that transactional gold has already been instituted on at least two internet sites. It is possible, right now, for you to keep your excess buying power in gold and a very liquid form and to transact in gold.

That's right now that you can do that.

Regards,
Journeyman

The next ten years, for the USA - as I (dimly)see it:

1. Somewhere along the way, the USD(ollar) will cease to be the Reserve Currency of the world.
2. Gold will be used again, for international settlements of deficits and surpluses in trade.
3. Its price, expressed in USD will be in the thousands of dollars.
4. All countries in the world will "revalue" gold or devalue their currencies - however you wish to express it. Some will devalue more than others, after "trade wars" determine more realistic economic relationships between countries. (The question whether the OPEC countries require US goods, more than the US requires OPEC oil, would determine the appropriate relative values of the OPEC currencies vis a vis the Dollar. Trade figures must balance out, with only slight deviations. Oil cannot be paid for in gold; only the small net difference, can flow in either direction)
5. The US will not be able to run constant trade deficits.
6. There will be a tremendous monetary inflation in the US (already in progress) where the pressure of money creation does not inflate stock prices or bond prices, but inflates the prices of the things that people have to buy in order to live.
7. As a consequence of point 6: one, two or three (or more, eventually) zeros may be dropped from prices, as "new" units are introduced: the "strong Dollar", the "new Dollar", "the America" etc.
8. As gold is used once again, for international settlements, its purchasing power will rise very greatly - over and above the Dollar price increase in the price of the ounce, attributable to inflation.
9. The standard of living in the US will drop very sharply. A sign: you will see people setting up open air stalls everywhere, to sell all sorts of things, in order to feed themselves.
10 The highly regulated life in the US, will be a thing of the past. ALL public administrative bodies will have insufficient funds to carry on their functions. The bodies that maintain the highly orderly life to which Americans have been accustomed, will be powerless, since they will not have the budgets necessary to carry on their work. Disorder will be prevalent. There will be insufficient funds to maintain operations as they are at present, at municipal, county, state and federal levels
11 There will be very difficult times; riots will have to be put down by military force; the leaders of riots will be "disappeared" and interned in camps: gulags.
12 Forget about calling "911" - there won't be anyone to answer, and no one to send, if they do answer. And if they do show up - it will be four hours later.
13 There will be political upheaval, strikes will be the order of the day.
14 The US will have to abandon the role of "policeman of the world". Thus there will be a shake-up in international relations - a more equitable distribution of power.
15 Protectionism will be the policy. A rebuilding of industries sent abroad, based on a much lower working wage.
16 Squalid housing will begin to surround the cities, populated by a working class that cannot afford either a vehicle or the fuel, to live further away.

But...enough!
Do you still look forward to a fall in the Dollar?
Sierra.

...to understand the Barrick/Homestake deal. With due respect to Professor Von Braun, Homestake shareholders clearly come out on top on this one. Homestake was a favorite among g'bugs mostly because of her ostensible no-hedging policy. Yet, when the merger was announced, Homestake simultaneously 'fessed up to the little business of a 2-million-ounce hedge position of her own, which for all their crocadile tears, stockholders appear to have known nothing about.

Furthermore, in bemoaning the loss of an independant Homestake, the good professor neglects to recognize the sad fact that the 125-year-old company's asset base has been, and is, in a multi-year decline. Five of her mines were, in fact, scheduled for closure just this year, and that includes the namesake Homestake mine in South Dakota.

But, if your a Homestake shareholder, and you still can't face having this sudden profit foisted upon your portfolio, all may not be lost. The deal is still subject to the prior approval of Homestake's stockholders. Very simply put,if they don't like it, it won't get done.

Will they approve? Well, consider this: In the week since the merger was announced, the HUI AMEX Gold Bugs index has fallen 3.3%. Barrick's stock is down by 9.6%. Yet Homestake has risen 13.8%. So, what do you think?


So, I'm afraid Brent Cook's take on all this (see Auspec, below) comes a mite closer to the reality of the situation than does the professor's. Still, I think even Cook stumbles when he gets to the math. Homestake has 20 million ounces, or so, in proven and probable reserves. Given the original terms of the deal(and the limitations of my hand-held calculator), that means Barrick was offering terms worth about $114/oz,, not $152. Even at that, however, we are talking shares of stock here, not cash on the barrelhead. By favorable comparison, Barrick's own reserves were valued at $120/oz. when the deal was announced.

All in all, I don't see what all the sturm und drang is about. Barrick shareholders are getting the increase in their company's leverage to a rising gold market through a reduction in the proportion of annual production which is hedged. Homestake's shareholders, meanwhile, are getting a sudden boost in the value of their stock which exceeds the return on most gold investments in any single year out of the last I-don't-know-how-many.

I'll take it!

You said to me, ---"Yur absolutely right! History proves almost ANYTHING can and has been used for money. Wampum, cigarettes - - - paper IOUs, etc."----

Ahhhhh... my friend, I can't be "right", because that is not what I was saying.

Now, let's take this slow and careful for the benefit of anyone attempting to peer into the depths of this haze.

To be sure, I am trying to induce people into deeper thought on this subject of money that most people give nary a thought to -- other than the earning and spending of it.

I am asking them to ponder deeply for the truth of the matter, for the very essence of this item... "What is MONEY?"

As I see it, in the opening line you have volunteered another matter entirely. However, I do believe it will be quite useful to this effort, and for that I am very thankful, as always, for your input.

Any careful thinker will in time come to recognize the fundamental flaw in your presentation. History has NOT shown that anything can be money. Rather, (and this is an important distinction) history has merely shown us that many different items have been used as (or in conjunction with) the ACCOUNTING SYSTEM for money.

But the underlying issue remains: What IS money? Successfully unlock this mystery, and the gates to a higher existence on earth will be thrown open for you.

I think a return to some type of gold standard will come into play. Reason #1 There is much economic chaos around the world since the US went bankrupt in "71" inflation has went out of site. The nations of the world can see this after 30 some years of experience. #2 The PTB can have rule over the people. (I'm refering to the "Money Masters" video tape). They cautioned against a return to a gold standard. Gold is the money of kings. I think this is what they tried to do in the late 1800's. I'm refering to the "Cross of Gold" speech by William Jennings Bryan in 1900. The PTB demonetized silver in the late 1800's and took out the money of the people, so we had a land that could produce milk and honey but the farmers and common people went hungry. Maybe this is why Trailguide says that silver will be worth nothing in the days ahead. #3 The Jamacian Accords Trail Guide talked about in the 70's when the nations decided that gold will one day be used again. 1986 the USA made it legal to own gold again. All this has some purpose I do believe.

Weigh yourself down with gold that way the guberment can't pull the rug out from under you as easy. Make em work for it!!

Hapyp 4th to all Americans.

The Gold standard IS already here, in one form or another friends. There is a Company(not one of the those referred to by J'Man in 57479 I believe)but they say in part:
------------------------------------------------------------
"Just as the express package industry finally brought competition to the US Postal Service and the heavily subsidized government agency responded and improved noticeably -(their name withheld as I'm not promoting)brings competition to America's most basic monetary unit, its currency"

American " " Dollars - America's only gold & silver backed Currency - that provides you with a physical and legal Warehouse Receipt which is your title of ownership to pure .9999 fine gold and .999 fine silver. Redeemable in pure gold and silver at over 800 Redemption Centers nationally and internationally - this currency will not be devalued in any financial crisis.

" 's" solution to our nation's manipulated government currency is simple: Stop using "their" money. Start using The Liberty Dollar and return America to value - one dollar at a time."
-----------------------------------------------------------
So Ted, you see it's already here in part, be it in a Ad-hoc, defacto form. As this concept appears to be growing quickly (and this while things are "stable")for the promoter over the last several years, why not on an even bigger scale? Why not somebody with lots of capital taking it far & wider. Could not CPM's of this land be involved in the future etc. Never say never my friend to the gold standard - regards Murray. . .

I'll guess 60-40 in favor of a return.
It will be precipitated as the justification to print new currency (perhaps just the old with a new color).
This will be necessary as the old currency dies from devaluation (price inflation) enhanced with the return of bigfloat. The old currency will die from too much of exactly that which gave it birth, debt, too much debt- owed to too many- to be repaid.
However, keep some of the old currency (in good condition) as these old bills will be valuable as collectors items in your grandchildrens lifetime.
Happy 4th!
Rich

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/auctnt43.pdfThe 2nd in THIS SERIES of six planned auctions.

Gold for goods and services...an endearing practice. I'm all for it. It's like having your neighbors over to help build a patio, paying them off with a grand BBQ and plenty of beer.

Barter. Any way you slice it.

However, paying with money is not barter because money is not a physical thing. So, what is it?

Speaking of BBQ's, I've got a BBQ to attend. I'll pick up this presentation later. Everyone, feel free to fill any subsequent silence with your own good thinking...the most effective teacher of all.

This is the final series in the UK gold action program.

@ Stranger - Hi there old friend - and you may be right on your math, which for me is beside the point; And yes I've sold HM at over 8 and I didn't even have to think about it hard.

Though, that's not quite true, since I've bought this co for a l.t. core gold position ... eventually - and no, I didn't know about the 2/moz hedge - and so I'm asking "me", what could have persuaded-(swayed) August v. Fink's 13% and his group, allegedly holding 30% plus for years at prices above 9$ on average? - and please don't come back and tell me what a great co ABX is - which BTW may be in terms of a wholly owned gold hedge fund by the BB's - may be more than true - and I ask you, what's going to happen to NEM - the last unhedged Mohican (just barely standing in view of a billion bucks hocked-), though officially unhedged? - only pledged ...

The game plan is there for all to see? Or do you feel, I'm totally off track? ... It's not the way I feel ...

...though don't let my words bother you - brother - enjoy as much independence as you can fill in the Hoi Polloi
of Salt Lake City - Enjoy - cb2

This merger has thrown things into a whole new arena concerning 'unhedged' gold miners. Many companies people bought for their 'upside' could now be snapped up in their 'downside' BECAUSE they are unhedged. With a crappy 30% premium many will get burned when the management 'turns' on them. Agnico, GoldCorp, GoldFields, watch em' go. A miner with big reserves, no debt, and most importantly, NO MINE, could end up being the deal of the century in a run-up, as these brutes will need INSTANT gratification and will overlook these types while trying to grab aforementioned type companies who are pulling lots of oz's NOW.

... and as I fear you're right - I still think some will hold tight - id est Goldcorp's Bob Mc'Ewen, Meridian, not too sure about Agnico ... raises some positive Qu's about juniors with goodies? - ... Maybe ask - PDG ... and see...
SA: GOLD, HMGCY ... and fringe RANGY, DROOY
OZ: Down Under - Boom -(erang)!

- Better get physical first of all - as all above haven't added an ounce to replace the suction of production!

For years - anyway - cheers for the independents - cb2

According to National Geographic Explorer, now on CNBC, the merchants and residents of Charleston, SC. offered a bounty during the "Civil War" of $50,000 for any Union ship blockading the harbor. It was this bounty that helped motivate the launching of the Hunley.

Again, according to the program, that $50,000 would amount to $1 million today.

So, why did I post this on a gold forum??

Regards,
Journeyman

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200107/05/eng20010705_74199.htmlAnd our next enemy is. . . NOT China, says Henry.

Snippit:
China Poses No Threat in Foreseeable Future, Kissinger Says
Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said that China poses no threat to the United States in the foreseeable future and it would be wrong for Washington to openly advocate a confrontational strategy towards the country.

Kissinger, in a PBS interview Monday on his latest book "Does America Need a Foreign Policy," said that he is opposed to placing China into the niche of former Soviet Union and launching another crusade against it as some of America's conservative politicians suggested in recent days. "To select China in advance as our principle enemy and slide it into the position vacated by the Soviet Union, I think would have the paradoxical effect of isolating us in Asia; nobody will join us," he said.

Kissinger stressed that China would not have the means to become an aggressor in the next 15 to 20 years. "Look at the military budget. The Chinese military budget is announced, it's 12 billion dollars a year in 1999... (but) Ours is 350 billion dollars. The Japanese is 49 billion dollars," Kissinger noted.

"So they are not in any position to threaten to push us out of the Western Pacific, as some people claim. I also don't think that 's their intention," he added.

Who has to be persuaded this happings,The countries of the world has reached the point where they cannot even change money any longer.This would participate a cause for a worldwide depression the day after. We are even now printing " unbacked paper" and the elite are trying to hold together Countries that are on the verge of falling off the bridge. Most people in the world does not even have enough
"worthless paper" to meet a very low living standard which should be called and is, free money.

Suppose some country went back to a gold or silver standard, at 3000$. gold and 300$.Silver their money would become the money of all monies. Unfortunely not all people would hold such money. Prices of everything from salt to steaks would fall so low that a country would die from lack of purchers.

Gold and silver holders would become very wealthy, and even then their wealth would buy them nothing for lack of credit to produce the products and services they needed.

Today,JULY 4th is celebrated as a day of freedom. Today we did not celebrate a day of freedom, Instead celebrated that we had lived to see another 4th. Had we been free we would not be on this forum discussing "The gold standard".

This will probably get me the the reward of the "cracy award" of the forum. Facts must be looked at in the light of what they are-Not the way we want them to be.

We as a nation has dictated the terms of war and peace,rulers, president to mayors. WE are no longer the nation with the big stick and soft speech. The nations are angry at us-Very angry, and we find ourselves in a place of a false prosperity and the inability to any longer speak and the nations tremble.

One day soon all oil faucets will be turned off and we will get the last of the drainage,Labor in other countries will exceed our hourly wage. No longer will we enjoy our happy gaggets made with the blood and sweat from poorer people living in shacks and cardboard boxes. The internet has changed all that and they are learning from us fast.

Then, Like any poor country we will exchange our goodies for firewood to warm ourselves.

When you lay a foundation line opon line. we will Then be only USA-CANADA-MEXICO and some Islands. We all will become islands with little military power, the greatest exchange of wealth has passed and we are awaiting
who has it.
We will cease to be the biggest buyers of goods from the world. WE will be replaced buy billons of chinase buyers of the worlds poducts.

GOLD and SILVER will not, and can not be instuted ever for the John Does and Smiths.

Read the last days of the USA; In Revelation, 13:11 read the future of america. How God raised him from the ground and its end.

After that I see hard work and small wages thereafter.

We will see.

<<>>>>

Yes and no! Paying with money is one side of a barter transaction, buying with money is the other. Currency is the recording device that joins the two sides in an equilibrium that derives from the composite buy and sell barter intentions of the participating individuals.

> THE FED'S METHADONE STRATEGY
>
> Think of the Federal Reserve System as a senior
> producer in an international fiat money drug cartel. Think
> of Alan Greenspan as its godfather. He uses commercial
> banks as his pushers.
>
> When users build up tolerance to the existing supply
> of fiat money, the FED has to increase the dosage in order
> to maintain the economic boom. In this system, the economy
> is never allowed to "get clean." The addiction to fiat
> money is forever.
>
> But Greenspan is a kindly godfather. He means to
> produce no serious harm. He doesn't want to see America as
> a nation of helpless addicts to the really hard stuff. He
> wants the whole world to move from the heroin of fiat money
> to methadone. If we will just keep coming down to the
> banks for our regular supply of the drug, we will be able
> to postpone the horrors of going cold turkey. Economic
> "cold turkey" is a recession that is not overcome by a wave
> of fiat money. The Great Depression was cold turkey.
>
> The whole world today is addicted to fiat money and
> long-term debt. Long-term debt makes sense when the money
> supply is constantly being expanded. You can pay off your
> debts with depreciated money. But the debt system keeps
> the addicts coming back for more. The longer the addiction
> process continues, the more dependent every section of the
> economy becomes on a continuing supply of fiat money.
>
> Today's users are counting on the easy availability of
> the central bank-supplied methadone. The universal
> assumption of the cartel's directors is this: methadone
> does not produce the fearful effects of long-term
> resistance to the drug's stimulating effects. Addiction is
> a permanent condition, but it can be handled emotionally by
> the addicts.
>
> The problem is this: the addict has no incentive to
> get well by breaking his addiction. The central bank
> continually adds to the money supply, generation after
> generation. This makes the level of accumulated debt ever
> greater. The addicts keep building up their IOU's.
>
> The biggest addict today is the U.S. government. It
> has made promises to voters regarding Social Security and
> Medicare. These promises involve unfunded debts so huge
> that they cannot be paid off in terms of money with
> anything like today's purchasing power. To put it bluntly,
> the U.S. government is on methadone today, just like
> everyone else, but this methadone dependence must lead,
> statistically speaking, to the heroin habit. We can see it
> coming. But methadone-addicted users in Washington see
> nothing coming further out than the next Congressional
> election.
>
> I realize that my analogy may sound a bit nutty, but
> it is closer to the truth than most people think. I wrote
> the initial version of this essay in 1964, which was
> published as a booklet, "Inflation: The Economics of
> Addiction." Since that time, the dollar is down in its
> purchasing power by about 75%.
>
> There is an addiction effect with fiat money. The
> world found out in the 1930's what happens when the flow of
> fiat money ceases. Politicians are determined never to
> allow this to happen again.
>
> So far, the voting public agrees. The central banks
> of the world continue to keep the funds flowing. A
> national economy has its ups and downs, but it never falls
> into the disaster-level mode of 1932. This seems
> positive.
>
> But the relentless pressure of debt never decreases.
> The public, along with their governments, continue to make
> assumptions about the future that cannot possibly come true
> with today's money supply and price level. So, the central
> banks continue to increase the money supply, general prices
> never fall, and aging populations remain unconcerned with
> the statistical brick wall that faces all of us, in every
> industrial nation. Addicts ignore unpleasant reality.
>
>
> A WEAK STIMULANT
>
> The minimal interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve
> System has produced nothing of substance for the stock
> market. The hopes of the bulls have been thwarted by the
> continuing bad news coming from the real world of economic
> production, which continues to border on negative numbers.
>
> There was a warning in late May by a private firm,
> ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute), that by the
> criteria of the National Bureau of Economic Research, we
> may already be in a recession. Well, maybe. The NBER
> always announces these conditions retroactively. The NBER
> is a old-line, private, academic think tank that everyone
> agrees is the arbiter of what constitutes a U.S. recession.
> Why it has this supposed monopoly, no one seems to know.
> The NBER deals with reams of historical statistics, so it
> does not often make announcements regarding the present.
> So, we will have to wait and see, officially speaking. But
> ECRI was founded by Geoffrey Moore, who used to be a
> research director at NBER. So I take ECRI's comments
> seriously.
>
> The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Standard & Poor's
> 500 index have bumped along this year well under the highs
> of 2000. Nothing that the FED does seems to take the Dow
> above the low 11,000's. Then it falls back. The NASDAQ
> remains stalled well under 50% of its high of 5040 in
> March, 2000.
>
> What's wrong with the stock market? Why don't the
> FED's actions produce a sustained recovery above the peak
> in 2000? Because the FED's policy of keeping short-term
> interest rates low by creating fiat money is at most a
> holding action. Cheap money at best keeps corporate
> borrowers able to sustain present projects, bringing them
> to completion. The sagging economy offers little hope for
> these borrowers to make above-average profits, or any
> profits at all. The FED is in the business today of
> creating an economic climate that avoids economic
> contractions. Greenspan doesn't care about the stock
> market except as a creator of confidence.
>
> The National Association of Purchasing Managers index
> is still under 45, although it showed signs of recovery in
> June. The good news regarding its increase from May's 42.1
> to 44.7. But it has been below 45 throughout 2001. I have
> cited the following statement in REMNANT REVIEW:
>
>
> The NAPM shows, since its inception in 1948,
> there is only one instance that four sub-45
> readings did not confirm a recession. That
> was in 1952, and even then, a brief bounce
> only delayed the recession till the following
> year. [James B. Stack, INVESTECH RESEARCH,
> April 13]
>
> The FED seems content with a soft-landing scenario --
> a recession where the economic growth rate just barely
> moves into negative figures. (Note: that's the way
> economic experts talk: "negative growth." A generation
> ago, this condition was called "contraction.")
>
> Greenspan is ready to flood the economy with fiat
> money in order to keep the economy from tanking. The
> present economic slowdown, which includes a recession in
> Japan, creates selling pressure in consumer goods markets.
> Under such competitive conditions, price inflation is
> checked. This gives the FED room to inflate the money
> supply without causing politically serious rising prices,
> at least for a time. But this recession-generated selling
> pressure also keeps profits low in the U.S. manufacturing
> sector. The economy remains stalled.
>
> When the FED pumps money into the economy, it distorts
> interest rates. That, of course, is the whole point of the
> FED's policy. It is trying to subsidize the completion of
> short-term projects, so that manufacturers will not have to
> lay off workers and sustain write-offs. But in subsidizing
> short-term projects, the FED is keeping the free market
> from scrapping wasteful projects that ought to be
> abandoned.
>
> The reason why recessions occur is that producers were
> previously lured into beginning uneconomic projects by the
> lure created by the FED's low interest rates, i.e.,
> subsidized short-term rates. Once producers are hooked on
> low rates, the FED continues to new pump money into the
> economy by way of the commercial banks. The addiction to
> fiat money continues.
>
>
> GREENSPAN DOESN'T REALLY CARE
>
> Greenspan has made it clear for 14 years that his
> major enemy is price inflation. Nevertheless, year after
> year, prices continue to rise. So does the money supply.
>
> What Greenspan frets about is a rate of price
> inflation high enough to call into question the reliability
> of the dollar in relation to the world's other currencies.
> He has been unwilling to inject sufficient reserves into
> the economy to create a rapid rise in the stock market as a
> prelude to an economic recovery in the boom category. He
> doesn't care if the stock market stagnates. He gives every
> impression of wanting it to stagnate. He knows that stock
> market valuations are historically high. They cannot pay
> off investors by means of economic growth and dividends.
> So, investors are naive. Greenspan knows this.
>
> The market rises only because more investors have been
> lured into stocks, not because advancing productivity will
> enable companies to repay investors when it is time for
> them to retire, sell equities, invest in bonds, and live on
> the income.
>
> Any reluctance on the part of investors to pour money
> into stock index funds will produce a fall in the indexes.
> New sheep are required for this market to stay high. It is
> an overvalued market. Greenspan even identified its
> source: "Irrational exuberance."
>
> This exuberance is the product of Greenspan's
> methadone economy, and also the one that preceded it under
> Paul Volcker's second phase (1982-87). Investors are not
> irrational in the short run, only in the long run. They
> refuse to acknowledge what is statistically inevitable for
> the government's retirement/medicare programs. They refuse
> to think long term. Thus, they compete with each other in
> bidding up the stock market to heights that are irrational,
� long term.

If this is a recession, it is the mildest one in
> recorded history: the softest landing ever. I live in a
> region where unemployment is below 3%: Northwest Arkansas,
> headquarters for Tyson's Foods and Wal-Mart. I was
> visiting friends last week in Harrisonburg, Virginia,
> another chicken-raising area. Unemployment there is about
> 2%. Both regions are experiencing rapid real estate
> development.
>
> I saw "Help Wanted" signs in fast food restaurants all
> across the Southeast on Highway 40. Where is the
> recession? Where is the fear that recessions generate?
> Where is the falling stock market that goes down and stays
> down? Nowhere to be seen.
>
> So, we have a race between Greenspan's methadone and
> the capital readjustment that half a decade of irrational
> exuberance has created. The optimists are saying that the
> U.S. recession, if any, is now over. A recovery is sure.
> But where is the stock market boom that pre-dates economic
> recoveries? Nowhere. Yet if we are in a recession today,
> or soon will be, where was the stock market's signal? It
> did not fall to levels associated with pre-recession
> levels, and it did not stay down when it fell.
>
> Historically, when the FED has cut rates six times,
> the market has risen -- the one exception being 1930. This
> recent series of cuts has taken place over a short time
> period: less than 6 months. This is the shortest time
> frame for six cuts in the 88-year history of the FED,
> according to chartist James Stack. But the cuts have been
> small.
>
> The U.S. economy is struggling alongside of a
> recession-plagued Japan and a rapidly slowing German
> economy. The world's largest economies seem to be
> operating together. The last time this happened was during
> the oil crisis in 1974.
>
> The FED is steadily cutting short-term rates, though
> in baby steps. What the FED is betting on is the consumer,
> whose debt level is higher than ever before. He will not
> stop spending, we are assured. He will dip into savings to
> keep the game going. His optimism is crucial to the
> continuation of the boom.
>
> This recession is missing the factor that has
> accompanied every previous recession: fear. Nobody is
> afraid of the possibility of recession: workers, investors,
> bankers, home builders. When people are not afraid of a
> looming slowdown, they do not cut back on spending. This
> has been the case so far in 2001. The consumer is not
> afraid.
>
> It is fear that persuades producers to cut back,
> tighten up, and stop expanding. Employers remove the "Help
> Wanted" signs. This has not happened in this recession.
> So, we are not yet into the recession. Some prefer to
> argue that it will not come, but it is clear that this
> slowdown has not been sufficient to change most people's
> spending habits.
>
> That's why I do not think we are in a recession. The
> FED's cuts are the sign that Greenspan wants to avoid
> recession without producing additional irrational
> exuberance. But what this exuberance is the product of
> confidence that recessions do not hurt. They do not
> produce fear.
>
> We are asked to believe that a recession will produce
> an unemployment rate of less than 5% -- what previous
> economic analysts have regarded as boom times. But in the
> early phase of a recession, low unemployment is common.
> That is why the ECRI says that we have entered a recession.
> If we have, we are nowhere near coming out of it. Times
> are too good.
>
> If Greenspan's strategy works, and these rate cuts do
> prove sufficient to sustain American consumer spending,
> then exuberance will continue to dominate the decisions of
> entrepreneurs. The consumers' debt-based bidding process
> will drive real estate prices even higher. Projects will
> not be cancelled.
>
> The FED wants to avoid irrational exuberance in the
> stock market. That's why the cuts have been minimal,
> though cumulative. But they reinforce the public's
> assumption that the economy is too big to fail. When men
> do not see danger in making conventional investments, they
> will pour ever-more money into markets that, apart from
> fiat money, would fall sharply.
>
> The stock market has not forecasted either boom or
> bust. It has discounted the future, and the message is
> "nothing spectacular." This is business as usual.
>
> My assumption is that business is never usual after a
> decade od boom times. There is no "new economy." There is
> only the old economy, which asks, "What have you done for
> me lately?" The FED's answer? "Pump in money." Take a
> look:
>
>
> http://www.stls.frb.org/images/publications/usfd/page8.gif
>
> "No boom, no bust": this seems to be Greenspan's goal.
> But a world of perpetual, risk-free boom produces
> irrational exuberance and ever-larger levels of debt. It
> also creates a sense of obligation for the FED to continue
> to expand the money supply.
>

www.kitco.comDate: Wed Jul 04 2001 12:38
kapex ( From my archives.... Notice the date, but more importantly, the content! Ask the cobber if he agrees )
ID#130128:
Copyright � 2000 kapex/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Date:

1999-10-11 14:24:01

Subject:

Joel Skousen on Gold: Bankrupting the Mines

Comment:

Is the gold market being orchestrated by the central banks? Or are

they now dividing: Europe vs. the U.S.? Joek Skousen does not see

a division, but he is correct about mining companies. Those who

invested in mining shares rather than gold coins are now going to lose

their investments if they bought the wrong companies.

My view: the gold price move is y2k-related. The money of the

immediate future will be non-digital. This means gold. European

central banks are not willing to sell their gold for the promise of future

dollars, to the extent that they ever did. They have sold little gold

over the years. They have bought dollars. They are getting ready to

unload dollars. When they do, watch U.S. interest rates rise. Watch

import prices rise.

Inflation is not likely without digital money. It all rests on the

computers. I predict deflation.

This is from Joel Skousen's latest WORLD AFFAIRS BRIEF ( Oct.

8 ) .

* * * * * * * * * *

RESURRECTION TIME FOR GOLD--BUT MOSTLY FOR

INSIDERS After years of central bank gold sales, artificially driving

down the price of gold, the establisment has suddenly switched

strategies and is allowing the price to rise. This deserves some

analysis since none of this has happened by accident and is still the

subject of heavy manipulation. I will give a very brief analysis at this

time, and hope to have a more complete picture later on this year. I

am indebted to my good friend, Steve Tomczak for doing the

extensive research and analysis on this. The big players in this

manipulation of gold have been US and European central banks,

Russia, Middle Eastern Oil countries, the IMF, bullion

banks/brokers, and the big mining companies. It's much more

complex than I have room to explain, but here is a capsule version:

US and European central banks, in collusion with Russia ( for

unknown secret promises--probably future cash and loans to the

elite ) , began dumping gold on the market several years ago in order

to drive the price down. This, we now believe, was intended to

negatively impact the gold mining industry and put them in distress.

Geo-politically, it also destabilized several African nations who were

highly dependent upon gold production and sales in order to finance

internal military and economic stability. But unknown to the general

public, a huge market developed among insiders to "short" the gold

market and make millions of dollars as the price went down. Giant

hedge funds, all closely connected with the PTB, also got into gold

short contracts in order to profit from what they knew was a

guaranteed downward direction of gold prices. Because of the

phenomenol profits in gold short contracts, central banks and bullion

banks ( who broker and store the physical metal for producers )

began leasing out the physical gold to insiders, as well, who then

would sell at a markup, counting on their ability to buy back the

physical gold later, at cheaper prices, when demanded for

repayment. This only works as a profitable strategy as gold is going

down. If gold rises, they have to buy it back at a higher price, which

is disasterous financially. Gold market watchers began to observe

last year that the total amount of gold leases and short contracts ( a

difficult quantity to ascertain without insider connections ) actually

exceeded the total supply by many fold. So it became obvious that

whenever the price started to rise, those insiders shorting gold and

leasing gold were going to be unable to recover. When the price of

gold started to rise dramatically ( biggest one day rise in history )

following the announcement of European banks and IMF to stop

gold sales for the next five years, I knew that this was the death knell

for those insiders shorting gold. The central banks have also agreed

not to increase their gold lending arrangements and derivative

operations above current levels for the next five years. Never before

in history have the big boys been told what they were going to do in

advance. Their openly giving out the five year date guaranteed a bull

market in gold. It wasn't meant to benefit those who would now buy

gold, but rather to destroy those who had been induced to short the

market. Not only would the price of gold rise, but there wasn't

enough gold available at any price for them to pay off their contracts.

Steve and I went back and forth for days trying to figure out why the

establishment would let their buddies ( whoever they were, and who

had been encouraged to short the market ) get caught in a no win

situation. Steve may have found a major part of the answer in

analyzing WHO the actual players were who were shorting the gold

market. By and large, it was the big mining companies themselves,

coupled with hedge funds connected to mining interests. Apparently,

the big mines were induced by bullion bankers to enter into the

hedging game ( shorting the market, and selling future production

forward ) as a means of surviving the downward market in gold. Little

did the big mines know that they were being set up for bankrupcy by

these insider bullion banks/brokers when the price of gold would

finally rise. Since the number of short contracts outstrips even the

mine's production, there is no way the mines can pay back the gold

that shorted. Rather than be able to take advantage of the increasing

price to recover ( as the public thinks ) , the mines are now in BIG

trouble. Steve's analysis is that the PTB have set them up intentionally

so as to be able to buy them out and control the world's biggest gold

mines. If this is true, it is a very important prelude to depression and

war. When the insiders go out to control most of the world's gold,

you can bet that the inflation of paper currencies is not far off.

Why do some people think Barrick starts to lose money when pog goes up? IMHO Theres some fuzzy logic to that.If they have the reserves and thier hedge is only 20% of production all they have to do is deliver the gold.If the hedge price is 345 as I have read here,its still well above thier cash cost price.Probably by 100.00/oz.Even above the 345.00 price they gain 100% with 80 % of thier production .20 % of production gets 345.00 'still well above cash costs by about 100.00/oz.Whats the problem?In addition between them and Homestake they will have about 750 million in cash,whats wrong with that?.Some gold bugs have demonized them for hedging,but thats why they have such a cash hoard!You cant have your gold and cash too when prices are low,they simply felt cash was more inportant than gold at that time and may now believe its time to roll into gold in a step up process.
Give them a break! Just because someone doesen't think the way you do doesen't mean they are demons.
Barrick chose to raise cash at the same time Homestake chose to increase reserves and have less cash.Marriage between them gives a better balance of cash and reserves to both of them.With Jack Thompsons nose for a good deal acquireing reserves and Barricks cash management ,its a good fit.

Horatio(57498)Are you sure that ONLY 20% of production is hedged or forward sold. Maybe Auspec, Black Blade etc can confirm but I had thought that about 40-45+% was the mark?

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_00/hathaway052700.htmlThe last information that I had was that ABX hade production forward sold to 2003. I have not heard of ABX unwinding any positions. Please post where they have unwound these forward sales. TIA

- Black Blade

Although I am in general agreement with TG that the Euro will emerge as an important new reserve currency, I expect that the great currency wars will be a long haul battle lasting more than 5 years......in that time, none of the three large currencies will peg to gold...i.e. "no formal gold standard".

I do believe that during the currency wars, gold will emerge along with the Swiss Franc as a "flight to quality reserve", with gold moving up in "price" against the currencies. During the next 5 years, the net purchasing power of gold could rise dramatically, which corresponds to "price deflation" in gold terms.

In the currency wars, no country would be willing to peg their currency to gold through "convertability" and those who might try to peg it nominally will need to prove that their fiat is as good as gold.

Poor old SolomonView Yesterday's Discussion.

Company - Hedgebook (mm oz) - Status

Anglo Gold - 16.3 mm oz. Up to 4.7mm oz decrease in 2000
Ashanti - 9.0 mm oz, (100% of production)
Barrick - 13.3 mm oz. Pledged to increase forward positions after WA announcement. Possible increase of 2 mm oz. with Homestake acquisition
Normandy - 7.7 mm oz. rumored to be reducing forward sales position
Placer Dome - 7.3 mm oz. possible increase of 2mm oz.

Barrick has written 3.2 million ounces of calls at a 360 strike price -- 600,000 ounces for the year 2,000, 600,000 for 2001, 600,000 for the year 2002, and 1.4 million ounces beyond that. It would appear that this is in addition to Barrick's forward sale position of 13.3 million ounces of gold sold through 2001 at an average price of $385 (since rolled over to a lower forward sales price average about $340).

A rising POG would put producers such as ABX in the same position as Ashanti and Cambior when they needed extraordinary help to prevent closure and takeover by their creditors. If the forward sold position is only 20% of production, then ABX has a phenomenal 53.2 mm unhedged oz for sale this year (through year 2001). The numbers don't add up.

BTW, if anyone has different or more up to date data, let me know.

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/010704/80/bxdin.htmlIm sure to sleep better tonight knowing this bit -o -news!

$hifty

------------------------------------------------------------
Wednesday July 4, 06:59 PM


Stench warfare and stink bombs-U.S. secret weapon?
LONDON (Reuters) - The Pentagon is developing a stink bomb to drive away enemy troops or hostile crowds, the magazine New Scientist has said.


Stench warfare could form a key part of the U.S. non-lethal weapons programme and provide police with an extra means of dealing with the kind of rioting that has disrupted recent summits of world leaders.


"It would give us an offensive capability against large and unruly groups of people, if they are unwilling to move or are openly hostile," New Scientist quoted a Pentagon spokesman as saying.


"And it would minimise the risk to our people and to the antagonists."


Researchers said there was a close link between nasty smells and fear, as a bad smell can activate tissue deep within the brain.


The "perfect" stink for defence purposes would be one that triggered an emotional response in humans.


The problem is that odours can provoke varying reactions in different people because of social and cultural conditioning.


Pam Dalton, a cognitive psychologist at the Monell Chemical Senses Centre in Philadelphia who is leading the search for a better stink bomb, has tested smells on volunteers of different ethnic origins to try to find a universal formula.


She has found two odours that appear to transcend culture, and a mixture of the two could form the basis of a weapon.

From ABX web site: Shows an increase in hedged (forward) positions.

14.9 million ounces in Premium Gold Sales program, with an expected realized price of $340 per ounce for 2001 and 2002. No earnings - Loss of -$1.93 per share.

Black Blade: I'll pass on ABX. I prefer physical and very profitable unhedged producers like Gold and HGMCY that not only have confidence in their product, but also reward investors with a decent dividend.

Barrick is fully covered for 2001 with calls.Any rise in price and they will fully participate in the gain!!!Thier average strike price is 335.00.They hedge is for 340.00.They are in the money on thier calls.The net effect is the same as if Barrick had no hedges for 2001!
see thier web page for details.
As a percentage of totol capital debt is 1%..thats right per cent.Any increase in gold prices goes straight to the bottom line!

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2001/07/04/MN186091.DTL&type=news
Snippit:

Officials in California and Nevada, after months of lobbying for federal regulators to cap Western power prices, warned yesterday that the newly imposed limits have had the unintended consequence of increasing a threat of blackouts in the two states. The warnings were issued as California came within minutes of rolling blackouts yesterday afternoon, and one day after the first-ever rolling blackouts in Las Vegas forced energy-hungry casinos to shut off fountains and reduce air conditioning.

The crux of the problem is that price limits kick in during shortages, yet power companies say these caps force them to sell power at below-market rates during periods of high demand. Some companies have responded by holding back power rather than face the expense of shipping electricity from state to state. Each mile that electricity must be transmitted adds to the overall cost. "No one's going to pay for transmission if the cost is near the caps," said Gary Ackerman, executive director of the Western Power Trading Forum, an energy-industry association in Menlo Park. Ackerman said several companies in his organization decided that there was no economic advantage to offering power in regional markets when price controls are in effect.

Black Blade: As I had predicted. Socialism always fails and Capitalism usually succeeds. I had said that this would happen as a matter of course. Yet the Grasshoppers are now amazed that the power generators won't "give away" electricity. Hmmm�

Barrick squeaks by with covered calls in a rising POG environment only as long as their counterparties are willing to accept cash settlement. If gold suddenly regains its luster with a rising POG, the CB's will likely demand of the BB's that they return their lent gold. The BB's in turn will knock on Munky's door and say - "We got a problem." ABX will offer cash from their calls and if the CB's and BB's are willing, then fine. If not, then its "turn out the lights - the party's over" and goodbye ABX. It comes down to acceptance of cash settlement in an environment where devaluing cash may not be all that desirable to the lending institution.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2001/07/04/state1139EDT0155.DTL&type=news
Snippit:

One Arizona utility rescued another when a rare set of generating station outages threatened the area's power supplies, and officials say there are more tough days to come. Record or near-record heat was producing record or near-record demand for electricity as temperatures ranged between 115 and 122 in portions of Arizona early this week. To meet the demand, a New Mexico utility sold power to SRP Monday while SRP sold excess energy to APS, southern Nevada and rural Arizona. Still, just two weeks into summer, power shortages surfaced throughout the West. California declared power emergencies each of the first two days this week. The Las Vegas area had its first rolling blackouts ever on Monday. Other weaknesses also are also beginning to show, one of which is the Phoenix valley's dependence on power plants located within the valley.

Black Blade: When living in a desert, straining the regions resources comes with the territory. Now the ripple effects are being felt throughout the west. Yet "Red" Davis of California demanded that Arizona and Nevada help out by providing additional power to California. It's going to get very ugly and very "Interesting" as the West's economy is pushed to the edge of the abyss. PMs look better as "insurance" all the time.

Golden Dreams All!

One More Thing - The manufacturers of paper are notorious for changing the rules of the game. Remember TOCOM and NYMEX defaulted on their palladium contracts this last year. In the past when Japanese men of honor were found to be engaged in dishonorable situations they at least had the decency to commit ritualistic suicide. Now they are as corrupt as the US NYMEX managers. Also remember what happened to the Hunts when the NYMEX defaulted on the silver contracts. If I were Munky or Oliphant, I would be a bit nervous if gold were to rise in USD value. They are putting their faith in some questionable characters, or is it a matter of honor among thieves.

Good Night and Golden Dreams!

- Black Blade

From the other side............Date: Thu Jul 05 2001 02:49
Rorschach Tested (Holy Wacko) ID#22898:
Copyright � 2000 Rorschach Tested/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Picked this up from the FED WATCH board at CNBC..

Hi,
My name is Steve Cosmic ( yes, really! ) I'm 53, and bought my first stocks when I was 16.
( I lost badly on those...... ) I've been in and out of the stock market for 37 years, and I've
been in it for the past 12 years quite significantly, and I have been watching it closely.
For most of my life, I've made my living as a bushpilot in Canada. I'm also an inventor with 6 patents,
and other patents in the works. Some of my inventions have actually made money!!
I'm also a hypnotherapist, and an astute observer of human behavior.
I've never been to university, so I don't have a degree.
People want to know when we will know that the market has bottomed. I know when
we will know this. Now I realize this may be too simple for some people with degrees to
accept. So if you have a degree, pretend you don't just for a minute. Now get ready.....
I'm going to explain it in just one sentence.
Here it is, and you can call this "The word from The Bushpilot"

"We will know that the market has bottomed when there is ZERO or almost zero,
rotation between sectors."

It's simple eh? ( An obligatory eh?, cuz I'm Canadian eh? ) See, as long as there is ROTATION in a high priced market, it means
there are "investors" who don't realize it, but they are actually hoping people more foolish than themselves
will keep buying. They haven't a clue about what is really going on.
Like I said, people with degrees may not be able to get this, but I think you folks are
smarter than average.
I smell fear in the markets now, but there isn't enough yet. As fear builds there will
be more selling, and then panic, and then even more selling. Eventually there will be
almost ZERO ROTATION, and this will signify the market bottom.
Think about it....... The Fed can't do much more than they have already done. They
are worried about a collapse of the dollar, though they don't admit it. And, think of
the low interest rates in Japan, and where it has gotten them.
I'd like to see some of you dig into the "Japan Crisis". The other crisis about to spread,
RAPIDLY and VIOLENTLY is the "Argentine Crisis". Both are happening right now, but
there is a preoccupation with the NYSE, as analysts, writers and "the investors" keep
their blinders on. Both of these crisis are totally unstoppable now. When they spill over
to other countries there will be a severe WORLDWIDE monetary crisis.
So how about you guys digging into both of these? It will be breaking
news, and you guys will be the heros for seeing it first. ( Though actually the old
bushpilot saw it first, so please mention me in your stories )
The Argentine crisis will likely involve violent protests, strikes and the like, with
bloodshed too. It is already starting now, if you check the international newswires.
( Go ahead, I dare you.... )
As a hypnotherapist, I have gone into the trance state thousands of times, and
have noticed I have some psychic ability. For instance, I forsaw, in a trance,
about two years before it happened, the breakup of the Soviet Bloc. I can
give you some actual predictions for the Dow, NASDAQ, interest rates,
gold etc if you are interested.
I hope you will investigate and report on some of my comments above, and
I also hope you will reply to this.

Best wishes,
Steve Cosmic

PS: As I said, it's my real name. To verify, you can go to my personal website if
you like: http://www.meditationtapes.com/stevie.htm

HIGH DRAMA IN EUROPE TONIGHT!!!
ALL FUTURES NEGATIVE FOR U.S MARKETS

THE CURRENCY WARS HAVE NOW BEGUN!

SLEEP TIGHT ALL YOU SHAREHOLDERS!!

I KNOW I'LL SLEEP WELL HOLDING GOLD :-)

CIAO G.T

Black Blade(57507)Re: Barrick Relying On Cash Settlement?
----------------------------------------------------------
That's why HM shareholders can feel "done". One only has to look at what Homestakes share price has done in previous big bull Au moves(not to mention their div's) to see what they "were" looking forward to this time around!

http://www.usagold.com/halloffame.html#anchor382779
Before re-hashing the definition of money it would seem logical to first review the work done over the preceding two years. This Forum is unique in having a full archive at one's fingertips and the selectivity of the best essays that reside in the HOF.

Below is an excerpt from the first elected HOF entry and above is the link for ---- "Special Discussion Thread.A Forum Team Effort (Feb 2000) A Remarkable Conceptual Discussion on the "Proper" Role of Gold in the Monetary System with Many Participants"

>>>>>> Aragorn III (8/11/99; 2:39:01MDT - Msg ID:10880) Coming to terms with the dollar and with money. My good friend Aristotle has relayed to you much of the modern story.

Aragorn III (08/09/99; 03:06:13MDT - Msg ID:10714)--Looks good, Peter
Yes, indeed, this is a good way to view our currency, such as it is...

Peter Asher (08/08/99; 22:51:59MDT - Msg ID:10701)--Fractionalization limits are just a regulation.<<"Lets try this possibility.--- The extra $50 Billion of Y2K Greenbacks can get into circulation by withdrawal of deposits, or my writing loans. If they write loans, up goes the Money Supply. If people withdraw their demand deposits, all that has happened is a ledger entry has been replaced by a receipt. That's really what a banknote is. Not an IOU as some have said, but a UOI. 'You the people of this country owe me this numerical value of goods or services.' So in a sense, when you take that currency out of the bank you are saying, "Hey tear me out that piece of the page where you have my deposit written down. I'd rather hold on to it myself."">>

Very nice! As the only "value" which is to be found in our currency exists entirely within an elaborate accounting system of "who owes how many numbers to whom", the physical dollar we may carry in our wallets is truly nothing more than a portable and transferable piece of the official ledgers; one that has been duly certified to stand alone as one of those ledger numbers with the proper pedigree to pass as currency. Numbers that remain in ledger form may only be added or removed through official banking channels, such as we see in the example of the check clearing house of the Federal Reserve. This has been Aristotle's attempt recently to explore with others why his simple act of typing "$17" does not create 17 spendable dollars; because it does not have the proper pedigree of origination within the banking system. Specifically, it was not borrowed into existence by the Treasury from the Federal Reserve, or even perhaps borrowed by you or me from our own Main Street bank.

Fancy designs with presidents on paper is an assurance that these "ledgers to go" so to speak do bear the proper pedigree as numbers acceptable for legal tender. When they exist in ledger form, they demonstrate this proper pedigree by the integrity of the database that tracks their movement. Nothing more, nothing less.


"...It should be obvious by the nature of our topic (money) that our conversation is focused on tomorrow, in addition to today. Were we to be truly concerned about today only, we would instead discuss whether our needs of food, clothing, and shelter had
been adequately met, we would not speak of money. To speak of money is to speak of today's confidence in our ability of meeting tomorrow's needs."

A currency with an unknown expiration date is arguably of limited use for the role we expect our money to play...to hold its value within acceptable limits of fluctuation based on normal market pressures and thereby successfully fulfill its ultimate destiny to be
spent as a medium of exchange for our future needs (food, clothing, shelter, hardware, medicine, etc.). No one wants to be the one left holding the bag when the purchasing value drops out the bottom.

Prior to 1971 the dollar was truly money (gold standard defined the dollar as gold) in the international economy, freely convertible with gold, with an equivalency of 1 oz. @ $35 -- FIXED, no questions asked! (Though it is fair to say there was squawking from
time to time when overseas paper came home for redemption). Unfortunately, the U.S. had painted itself into a corner and was trapped. Here is how it happened.

Prior to 1933 the U.S. was on a gold standard domestically, also, at which time the equivalency was 1 oz. @ $20.67 -- fixed, no questions asked. A bank would readily exchange paper currency for the equivalent gold currency on demand. There was a
general confidence in the banking institutions, and people were content to use their paper dollar equivalents, and further, were content to let their deposits remain in the bank. Fractional reserve lending privileges allowed banks to expand the money supply --YES...even while on a fixed gold standard! As long as not everyone together would choose to withdraw their money and convert the paper proxies for the gold dollars, this fractional reserve lending privilege did not cause any apparent problems. Did prices stay reasonable as the dollar still appeared "good as gold"? I give you...The Roaring Twenties! When the attendant stock market bubble popped in 1929, the financial system, and much necessary confidence began to unravel, and the bank run became a probationary event for the Olympics. In 1929, 659 banks failed. In 1930, 1352 banks failed. In 1931, 2294 banks failed. Late 1932 and early 1933 witnessed this trend swell to envelop not small or isolated banks alone anymore, but entire communities and statewide banking institutions. (I will tell you that by 1933's end, nearly half of U.S. banks had disappeared...such is the "privilege"of issuing excessive claims on money that cannot be backed through this fractional reserve system!) <<<<<<<<

The Beat Goes ON
Single Currency
The Euro�Becoming Global by Stealth?
Ever more popular as it depreciates.
On July 5th, the European Central Bank will again review its interest-rate policy. The meeting will take place eight days after the latest American interest-rate cut and at a time of renewed euro volatility. Yet the currency s persistent weakness since its creation in January 1999 has not stopped it from being widely traded
IT IS one of life s great mysteries: why do economic forecasters get things so wrong, so often? The perception is, of course, a little unfair. In the case of the euro, however, the forecasters were spectacularly wrong�and continue to be so. Almost from its inception, the euro has been in trouble, in the sense that its value has fallen, against almost all expectations. Its weakness has been persistent and all recoveries in value have turned out to be short-lived. The euro s value does not, insist economists and politicians alike, accurately reflect economic fundamentals. The financial markets continue to ignore such bleatings and express a clear preference for holding dollars against euros.

But has this fatally weakened the euro s prospects of rivalling the dollar as an international reserve currency? Perhaps even more important, should anyone care?

The world has grown so used to the dollar s dominant role as the most widely-used currency that is difficult both to remember when things used to be different, and to contemplate the prospect of change. After all, by the late 1990s, more than four-fifths of all two-way foreign-exchange transactions involved the dollar; nearly half of world exports continue to be denominated in dollars. And the proportion of official reserves held in dollars is still close to about three-quarters.

The euro was going to change all that, according to some economists. The switch to a single currency for those countries in the euro area would make the euro far more useful and appealing to financial markets outside Europe: the euro would have a greater impact than the sum of the currencies it replaced. As European financial markets inevitably became more integrated, more liquid, and thus easier to use, the euro-denominated securities market would grow, pushing down transaction costs still further. This was an idea that especially appealed to some European politicians (not least French ones) who saw the chance, finally, to end what they tended to see as the dollar s hegemony.

But what determines a currency s international role? Jeffry Frieden, a professor at Harvard University, argues that four factors are important: stability, which reduces the risk of holding assets denominated in that currency; a strong exchange rate, to avoid capital losses for those holding the currency; deep and liquid financial markets which enable holders to diversify or liquidate their holdings; and strong regulatory backing to minimise the possibility of crises (and ensure that the markets remain deep and liquid). A quick glance at the euro s performance since its creation on January 1st 1999 suggests that it has failed to meet the first two of Mr Frieden s criteria. It has been in almost continuous decline since January 1999, sinking from about $1.20 to somewhere around 85 cents (and sometimes lower) in recent weeks. Not a performance to attract would-be investors.

In spite of that, a surprisingly large proportion of financial assets is now held in euros. According to the Bank for International Settlements, more than a third of all international bond and note issues were denominated in euros in 2000; and the euro gained further ground in the first quarter of 2001, accounting for more than 47% of all such debt issues. The euro appears to meet Mr Frieden s third and fourth criteria, and this has helped it gain a substantial place in the international financial markets.

So then why has the euro been so weak? Most economists will admit to being mystified. The European Central Bank (ECB) is often blamed for not paying enough attention to the currency s external value, and for sending out confused signals about its intentions to the markets. The bank has certainly managed both to confuse and alienate many observers since it started work two and a half years ago. But much of this relates to the bank s poor presentation than to the substance of its policy. And some of the irritation at the ECB s apparent failure to worry more about the euro s value reflects misunderstanding about its mandate.

Just a few months into the euro s life, Christian Noyer, an ECB vice-president, pointed out that domestic policy objectives, not least the completion of the European single market, were the driving force behind economic and monetary union; and that price stability within the euro area is not only the ECB s main responsibility but an objective which contributes to global economic stability. Of course, as Mr Noyer acknowledged, the euro s exchange rate is an important determinant of euro-area inflation: but it is only one of several.

One explanation for the euro s unexpected weakness may be the growth gap between American and Europe. Yes, the argument runs, America is now slowing down; but so is Europe, and although the euro-area economy is likely to expand faster than America this year, over the medium-term, American performance is still expected to be better than that of Europe.

Just because an economy accounts for a significant proportion of world output does not mean its currency will have an important international role. Germany resisted a wider role for the Deutschemark for many years, and the Japanese have been reluctant to encourage large foreign holdings of yen. It is also possible for currencies to have an importance in the world s economic and financial system wholly disproportionate to the economic weight of its issuing country. The British pound remained an important reserve currency well into the 1970s, long after Britain s economic power had faded, and is widely traded even today.

The British experience carries a warning for those who want to see the euro take on a bigger international role. A reserve currency might bring greater international influence, but it can also bring obligations that are sometimes uncomfortable. The sterling balances�large sterling-denominated reserves owned by non-residents�were a perpetual headache for British policymakers in the 1960s and 1970s. Not only were they, ultimately, a liability of the British government; but the constant decline of sterling from 1967 onwards created considerable resentment on the part of holders of sterling, who saw the value of their asset fall as well.

That resentment turned to anger when members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC) decided that enough was enough, and switched both their currency reserves and the pricing of oil into American dollars. In the long run, this made the price of oil in pounds more volatile. It also added to sterling's weakness�because of the large amounts being switched out of pounds�in a period when the British currency was already weak.

For the euro, there is a lesson in sterling s history. The bigger the international role, the greater the potential for volatility, and the more complex the implications for domestic policymaking. The ECB s job, hard enough already, could be even tougher.

The Economist, July 3, 2001

http://english.hk.dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/world/afp/article.html?s=hke/headlines/010705/world/afp/Israel_tries_hit_on_Arafat_follower_as_peace_hopes_disappear_in_hail_of_bullets.html
Hi ALL!

Hmm. Things are definitely getting interesting.

Am adopting Black Blade's format. Hope you don't mind BB! They say that next to gold, imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

Thursday, July 5 1:02 AM SGT
+
Israel tries hit on Arafat follower as peace hopes disappear in hail of bullets
+
JERUSALEM, July 4 (AFP) -
Dwindling hopes for a peaceful resolution in the Middle East disappeared in a hail of bullets Wednesday as Israeli forces seriously wounded a Palestinian militant in an assassination attempt in the West Bank.

The shooting came after Israel's security cabinet gave the army the green light to "toughen its methods" in dealing with the Palestinians, who warned the Jewish state's return to direct attacks would plunge the region into chaos.

Palestinian militants meanwhile vowed to continue the armed struggle against Israel that has left more than 600 people dead since September and all but erased a US-sponsored ceasefire intended to get both sides back to peace talks.

Hezam al-Natcheh was shot three times in the stomach in the flashpoint West Bank town of Hebron, in what Israeli army radio said was a bid to "eliminate" an important member of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's Fatah movement.

---------------

Journeyman: While I've been a bit of a sceptic as far as a major conflict in the middle-east is concerned, it's looking more like those posters suggesting this eventuallity may turn out to be correct. You can't engage in this type of behavior without causing retalliation. Along with violence over women, revenge killing is in the human genome. This is going to be extremely difficult - - - impossible is more likely - - - to stop. IMO.

The question is, how far will it go? Maybe I've been reading too much lately, but this conflict, Arabs across the region mobilizing and all, could make this a really good time for some life insurance. If you know what I mean.

Regards,
Journeyman

P.S. I'm not saying this because it's the locally politically correct thing to say. I will continue to post what I REALLY think regardless. So it could well be that I join the ranks of the "disappeared."

P.P.S. Don't worry, take care of yourself. Gold, get and/or transact you some.

This essay is about the return of a Gold Standard.

We will see it in our lifetime. And In case you are asking how long is a lifetime: within 5-10 years. Two major points It will come about as a contradiction and the Gold Standard will be unofficial. There is a chance if will become official if the government become jealous of losing it ability to manipulate the money supply.

Why do I say the return to gold standard is a certainty?
To follow my logic, ask yourself several questions like I did.

First, Whatever happen to the totally cashless society? It didn't happen and never will. Why? With credit cards and computers, we had the capability to become a totally cashless society by the late 60's The newspapers and media were selling us on the cashless society and the banks would have love for us to become cashless. Imagine the fees! It would have been a good deal for the powers-that-be as well. If you got some troublemaker, erase all his credit cards and let him starve! A few months of going hungry and you'll see how flexible a former rabble-rouser can become. They were giving an extra hard sell on the cashless society. So why didn't it happen? And no the answer was because a few paranoid individuals didn't want to be monitored They have ways of dealing with paranoids The Black Panthers, Ruby Ridge, Waco comes to mind.

Okay, another question. What industry is the biggest industry in the United States. Bigger than Microsoft, General Motors, Ford, IBM, and Cisco at the top of the tech bubble combined.

The answer to both questions is drugs. The reason we don't have a cashless society is no drug dealer is stupid enough to take credit cards or checks. (Actually those who have been stupid enough to do ended up in the slam for a long long long time. (And now your honor,
I'll like to present exhibit #1 this MasterCard Statement with payments to Coke D. Ealer)

The reason The drug industry is number one is just like ADM is one of the largest lobbyist in Washington. ADM makes corn sugar and uses lobbyists (cough: bribes) to make sure Washington passes a lot of business their way,

The drug industry pays off a lot of crooked cops, judges and politicians. Just any other lobbyist them want to make sure they get
their money's worth.

Never forget the drug industry is organized in many ways like other industries. The pushers coming into school yards is their marketing division. But less visible but still important is their Research and Development division. Let talk about two successful products that came out of their R+D labs. Crack and Roofies. For those who don't know, crack is smokable cocaine and Roofies is known as the "Rape drug"

Now crack came about as a way to save money on the production side. Just like all industries, you got to watch your pennies. Mules although plentiful, don't come cheap. (airfare is a bitch!) And getting dead babies to meet the needs of american junkies empty veins, well you wouldn't believe the how the price has gone up for dead babies lately.

The R+D department first tried to solve this by adapting a version of
the cocoa plant and the opium poppy that would grow in American soil.
They are still working on it.

Then the bright boys decided: Well if we can't grow it or import dope cheaper, maybe we made what we stretch farther. Crack cocaine is essentially cocaine with hamburger helper in it. (Speaking of hamburger helper, I had a conversion with a friend last week about how little hamburg is in a fast food hamburger. And it is not even hamburger helper but kind of like sawdust. He didn't mention what chain but he asked me a question: "Why do you think McDonald's has "The Hamburglar"
as a copyright character?"

An ounce of regular Crack cocaine can make about 50 vials of crack cocaine selling at the same ounce price. (Talk about getting your money worth!)

Since crack was so successful, the lab drugs geniuses came up with some new products. Roofies are one. You might have heard the dangers
on the latest trash talk tv show. Which brings me to another point.
The drug industry has a pretty good marketing department too. True,
the industry has dealers delivering samples to school children and I won't debate the effectiveness but I remember seeing first hand even more effective salesmanship. Now most of you probably don't watch the local news but I try too (when I can stomach it) If you do watch the news, how often have your seen the tv station lead off the new stories with:

A dangerous new drug has hit the street by the name of "Crystal" (Methathene) "Angel dust (PCP) or Black Horse (heroin) or "New Coke" (A better form of crack) and on and on and on.

Actually having my eye out on the street because that is what I wanted write about, no such new drug has hit the street. But who are you going to believe, me or what you watch on tv? The next day, every dope head would be asking you, me, anybody where they could get some of that "whatever" Talk about the power of advertising! It would be a week to a month before the supply hit the street (Just like Tickle Me Elmo or them aluminum scooters or whatever the latest toy craze kiddies were bugging their parents. (If you have kids you Know EXACTLY what I mean. And you probably went through the same search for this new toy as a junkies does for this new drug -come to think of it, This "whatever" is the junkie new "toy") I know with so many desperate people searching, the streets wouldn't be safe so I made it a habit to "Disappear!"

But the above was just a sidetrack into marketing. We're talking about
R+D. In a normal company there are many things your R+D looks at but may never have a use for. In the drug industry one of the thing the lab/marketing boys are looking at is gold.

Right now, the profit potential for precious metals is at an all time low. But in the drug industry, gold does have potential. It has potential in two ways. First, you may remember the story I told you about witnessing a shakedown where the police took the currency but let
the dealer keep he gold coin because he thought it was just a copper good luck charm. You can be sure that dealer told his friends.

The second potential lies in the fact some of the people the drug industry are partnered with, The people in what is known as the opium Triangle, China, Turkey, Thailand carry their trade in silver coin or gold. There partners are into gold because they had trouble with governments and/or currency. (The latest example being the Turkish Lira.)

Here because our currency has been stable (thus far) The dealers are pretty much content to deal in dead presidents. But history has shown
once a country start inflating, eventually that currency is doomed.
For reading this and other forums we seem to be at the 20% hyperinflation seen only in South American. The only reason some South American countries were able to survive hyperinflation because they got bailed out by tying their currency to the dollar. That is why we haven't seen the normal end historically that come to hyper inflated currencies.

But what happen when the currency all the over hyperinflation currencies depends on hyperinflates? Welcome to the wonderful world
of black markets!

All countries that had/have hyperinflation, have a massive black market. Government have tried to shut down black markets but at best
they can only give the evil of black markets lip service. Because without black markets survival is impossible. The government bureaucracy, laws and totalalism makes survival impossible. The only way to live is the black market. When the government has shut down the black market, very sudden, very violent revolution is what happened.

We are hyperinflation at over 20% Greenspan latest 1/4 point cut adding fuel to the fire. Historically, all hyperinflations end badly.
At this moment the dollar is in a paradox. It is stronger than ever. That is for 99% of the people. The dollar and currency is the only game in town. Since it the only game in town, that is the reason it is currently strong. But this strength is an illusion. It cannot last.
What then?

We will see confiscation of gold. But the confiscation cannot happen
in the same way or historically in the way other nations have done. We already had two confinscations. The first was when Roosevelt robbed American Citizens of their Gold in 1933. The second was when Nixon closed the window preventing foreign countries to exchange dollars for gold in 1972.

Fool me once, shame on you! Fool me twice, shame on me! The government will want to confiscate gold but can't. They had lost the gold due to the gold carry trade and will need to grab gold as a last desperate attempt. They can't grab gold of american citizen. Almost no american citizen knows the value of gold. Sure there may be a gold bug or two but the government has two problems trying to rob from
gold bugs, First, those who had the foresight to protect themselves with gold will put up a hell of a fight to protect themselves from being robbed. The second problem is there are so few gold bugs and these too few gold bugs had too few gold coins. There wouldn't be much to rob. I remember reading a survey, that said more gold bugs had fewer than five coins and that was all they could afford but at least that little allow them to feel they were taking some steps to protect themselves. (Actually it made sense to me because the average american has less than $3,000 saved)

The other option to grab the gold they need is to grab the gold mines.
But because of the low price of gold, (correct me if I am wrong) I don't think there are any operating gold mines on American soil

We would have to invade other countries to get their gold and their mines. Not that has stopped us before. One reason I've heard we were in Vietnam was to get their tin and other metals, not precious but certainly useful militarily wise. We fought Iraq to continue using oil of the Middle East.

So the government will need gold but not be able to get it. Will that
stop them? Has not being able to do something ever stopped this government? (Certainly not the constitution which says they are not suppose to do this according to the 9th and 10th amendment. Speaking of constitutions, I remember once reading the Russian constitution and
how it seemed better than ours in some ways. His comment was: "Oh yes
it is a beautiful piece of writing. Now if they only followed it... Unfortunately, the same can now be said of the american constitution.)

So how do the government grab for the third time? Just like the drug industry is aware of the potential in gold used criminally, The government is aware as well. After all, they are both gangs.

The government will announce another measure to control drugs only this
time it will be making gold illegal since only the drug kingpins can use gold. After all, you can't eat gold. (See my previous essay.)
And since you honest people can't eat gold, we are requesting (requiring) all you honest people out there to turn in whatever gold you have. This will be another gold grab but unlike the other two it allows the government "deniability" "No we're not confiscating gold. We're only fighting the drug war. If you're honest you don't need gold. So help us take a bite out of crime (and your wallet)

And since you "Voluntarily" turned in your gold there won't be any of that Fifth Amendment about fair compensation. "You're pleading the Fifth Amendment: Don't you know how many criminals plead the fifth amendment. You must be a criminal too! Best we toss your butt in jail since you're a fifth amendment criminal. By the way, Bubba been hinting for a new girlfriend and you're his type.)

Only,... once the government declared gold illegal, The real criminals
who may had a passing interest, will get a very active interest. For by
making gold illegal, they will have ensured the profit margin.

Let's take an example. From my understanding, it is either illegal or you are allowed to own very little silver and gold in India. Do you know how much illegal gold and silver is being sneaked into India? Do you have any idea what the profit margin is. Let's leave it at healthy!

Because of the size of the drug industry and the fact it is a form of
black market, I would estimate at least 80% of the citizenry has been in contact with it. Since buying drugs are illegal, there is an increasing chance the citizen will engage in other illegal acts or at least lose any respect for law and justice.

The drug industry is a black market but it is not a true black market. It has only one way trade. Drugs, A true black market has two way trade. They ship drugs out and weapons in. Weapons are cheap. The most popular weapon in the world is the AK-47 Even at the high price the black market charges, you can get one as low as $50.00. On the street I heard a rumor the street gangs of Los Angeles are having major imports of Ak-47 thus the low low low price and the money troubles Russia is having. They are being stashed away somewhere, I don't know where and I don't want to know. What do I know, I'm just a lousy writer who can't get published so forget the whole thing.

Also, normally black markets tend to deal with gold or silver. Because
the dollar has been stable, the black marketers have been willing to
accept Dead Presidents (Although Franklin their preferred portrait wasn't prez) dollars. But that can change in a moment. Remember earlier when I said the drug industry refused to get involved with the cashless society. Well, if cash turn up to have problems (Like becoming worthless) it can easily go from a currency society to a (real) money society. After all, some of their trading partners deal in a (real) money society. So can they. Thus would be the beginning of a gold standard. Totally unofficial.

How would take unofficial gold standard take place? To understand we will have to the drug industry R+D

In many R+D labs products and plans are developed and then put aside. For instance, the tobacco industry had developed a totally nicotine-free cigarette. If the tobacco companies have their way you will never see it on the market. But as lawsuits victories continue against cigarettes, the totally nicotine-free may be on the market. The tobacco companies want to make cigarettes but they will find they are only allowed to continue the manufacture if you have a totally safe cigarette, a nicotine-free one.

To switch to a gold standard the drug industry would turn to it many junkies and say. "You can't pay me in paper! I want gold otherwise no
getting high for you. Those junkies will get gold or die trying. For example, it may sound harebrained but suppose you order a 1,000 junkies to do a mass assault on fort knox. They may all get killed but then you have another wave of 1,000. They too get kill. But of the 1,000
5 find a way to get inside the fort. Another thousand and find a way to get into the underground cavern. Another 1,000 and they make it
to the vault. Each time they have an assault they find a weakness in their security. It the way the drug industry works with mule and one of the reason drug shipment by mule train is so expensive. ANyway you get the idea.

As the the idea, it would be too complicated to teach junkies all the details needed to break into Fort Knox consider, teaching a child how to find a vein and popping it so it doesn't collapse so he/she can shoot up, if you stop to think about it is pretty technical medical knowledge. Yet it is done every day. Do not under estimate the R+D of the drug industry.

Because of the size of the drug industry and the huge variety of drug users, they have already begin to deal in alternative money. Food stamps, and sex are the most common alternatives. (Another aside,
one reason the R+D department probably developed roofies was because
because they do use sex as an alternate currency. Imagine making a drug deal for sex and then finding the person was unwilling. Well
Fuck that! Literally! (Please pardon my cruelness but you must admit it is using the power and expressive of language at its best.))

If gold becomes another alternative money in the drug trade and a standard, it will leak over to official use. Just like the profits from the drug trade gets laundered and find it way into the above ground markets and business, gold used for buying drugs will do the same. And it will be at this point the government sees it has a problem and will try to take control of the gold standard officially.

How could the gold standard become official especially since the government loves the inflation fraud. Consider another government fraud: That of Social Security. You hear a lot of talk these days of privatizing social security. Social Security if you are not aware is a Ponzi scheme. It seems to promise infinite benefits but can only do so as long as you have more and more people joining up. Once person either stop joining or demanding the money, the ponzi scheme collapses.

Why would the government want to give up the program? The rake off
they get is incredible! The fund for Social Security pays for a lot of programs the government would not rather show as an expense honestly. So why do they want to give it up. Because it is a Ponzi scheme, it must end badly.

So hopefully, if laws on privatizing social security get passed (And how many of you want to take bets it will) when the scheme ends badly as it must, the government can say: Don't blame us. We privatized it. It was up to you to provide for your social security after it went private.

Just as the rake off from social security is incredible, the graft from
inflation is more so. These figures are necessarily accurate so take them with a grain of salt. I remember reading the total value of of assets, Businesses, homes, money tucked secretly in the cookie jar was 5 trillion dollars. But with government debt,and interest on government debt (remember, none of it has paid off just rolled over. (Also it may be impossible to pay back principal and interest thanks to the way the Fed creates money) derivatives, M1, M2, M3 etc., is about 150 Trillion. (I used to work at a science museum and talked about astronomy. To let person know the distance of galaxies we spoke in trillions and to give an idea how large a trillion was I would say a trillion second is slightly over 2,000 year when Jesus was born.)

The country is worth 5 trillion but the government spent/owes 150 trillion the difference is made up by inflation. So when the unofficial gold standard is in place, you may hear calls from the government the "Privatize" the gold Standard. How would privatizing the gold standard look? I don't know but the scheme they have for the euro seems to be a pretty good idea. Where you claim the currency is backed by gold by you nor I can touch it.

Anyway this message is getting too long and I am getting tired. So I end this for now. But I wanted you to know of one possibility of returning to a gold standard there are probably others. If what I wrote sound improbable, Let me know. If it sounds too probable let me know as well. The main reason of this essay was just to get you to think.

Our economy is being destroyed by the owners of the central banks for it is no longer profitable for the owners of the dollar to operate this ponzi scheme. The only free market for gold and silver is between central banks. We need something else that they can not control but we the people can on the local level. We the people need to cut all revenue to the owners of our fiat money. Since they already own most of the gold above and in the ground I do not wish to enrich them more by using gold or silver or any other price controlled commodity. There has to be something else that we in the local level can control. I need a trading (barter) unit made up of what????

Futures this morning are down hard and the USD is hammering other currencies. The ECB decided not to change interest rates this morning. Could get "interesting" at the open on Wall Street. The Euro could be under severe pressure and perhaps fall below $0.80. Petroleum prices look to head higher as Iraqi oil may not come to market as many hoped. Strange things are happening today.

"Interesting Times" - Gotta Go For Now!

- Black Blade

http://blazer lanka.net/lakehouse/2001/07/04/for04.html Journeyman getting a bit hot over there it looks. I wonder if this is an exuse (trigger event) for the impending dollar fall, and commodity price hikes soon to come. I wonder if they will just let dollar fall without a reason, other then it just must happen. I bet they would like to have an exuse besides monetary policy for this fall. I bet a Mid_East War would do it, throw in some chemical and biological weapons and then that would help as well. Oil would rip, rip, rip if this thing breaks out. Everybody looks to be lined up at the right spots on the table for this. See them hold the price of Gold down with this thing breaking out. I think you would see COMEX exposed real fast. Without this War I dont think it would be time to expose COMEX.

http://www.jpost.com/Editions/2001/07/05/News/News.29769.html Sorry the next link did not work. It just warned that we the USA, saw a serious problem with Hezbolla. We see a war looming. This link is some words from Netayahu. He want a confrontation as well.. hhmm Everybody over there want a confrontation, they will get one I am betting.

http://www2.haaretz.co.il/breaking-news/Intifada/368531.stm Once the fire starts, it has to burn down everything before it is put out. This fire is getting hotter and hotter, its spreading, its about to combust (perhaps)?

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7/5/01 (www.usagold.com). . . .Gold continued to slide deeper into the summer doldrums -- down $1.60 as we go to fetch this over to the server. The strength of the dollar continues to be the big story.

Today European monetary policy-makers, hoping to stop the euro's slide against the dollar before the currency is introduced for circulation in January, decided to leave interest rates unchanged. In times past, that would have been a signal for the euro to at least stabilize if not go higher, but with Europeans very nervous about the viability of the new currency the run the dollar continues unabated and undeterred. European Central Bank president, Wim Duisenberg seemed steadfast through it all commenting ". . . [W]e regard our current monetary policy stance as appropriate... for some time to come." So here we have a situation where the market seems to be saying "Inflate and we will bless your currency by raising its value against the dollar."

On the other side of the world, it's an entirely different story. Bloomberg reports: "The yen fell to a three-month low against the dollar on speculation the government will increase pressure on the Bank of Japan to pump more money into the banking system to foster growth." So here we have a situation where the market seems to saying, "Inflate and we will damn your currency by dropping its value against the dollar." One foreign exchange analyst told Bloomberg this morning: "If they (the Bank of Japan) were to increase money supply that would weaken the yen no doubt. ''
So what's good for the goose is, well, good for the goose. The gander? Well, that's another story. It would seem that both currencies, at the root, are suffering from having to convert to dollars first then oil -- the lifeblood of all three of these economies. That is perhaps the real story -- the one that fails to show in these daily ministrations from the mainstream financial press.

Oil, by the way, is up today and the bear continues to dominate. Brazil and Argentina continue to splash around in the tank with seemingly no one except a handful of nervous New York bankers taking any particular notice. All the while, the entire financial system continues to creak and lurch toward some sort of financial Armageddon we can only guess on, and gold -- the one true hedge against the systemic disaster lurking in all the major economies -- remains the most undervalued and promising of the world class assets.

So it's throw the bag over the shoulder, arm oneself against the sun and heat, and head for the first tee. It's the summer doldrums and there's not a thing any one of us can do about it, except maybe pick up a few more ounces while the price is down.

This will be the last report until next week unless there is a major breaking story.

We invite your inquiries: 800-869-5115

Great Op-ed page this morning. Keep 'em coming.
Not saying I see the same plausibilities but you lay out a good and entertaining read to stimulate the brain cells.

The dollar is going to go far higher than rational people expect, or others will fall farther. It is a currency 'war' my friends, and the boys with the biggest,meanest 'toys' always win, and always have.

Toys= 5,000 BC ----- muscle and clubs
1500 AD------ guns and horses
2001 AD------ derivatives and cruise missiles

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=South%20Asia%20News&tp=topfinancial&T=as_storypage99.ht&s=AO0PXLhPoSW5kaWEg
Falling growth and burgeoning deficits'same old story ,new locale.Will the tradition of protecting one's assets in the safety of gold prevail,or will the citizens of India join the hordes on the $US train.

July 5, 2001

Pursuing an American Dream While Following the Koran

By SUSAN SACHS

After moving his growing young family into rental apartments, his in-laws' house and then again into a
rented condominium, Sal Spiteri scraped together the money for a down payment last year and bought
his first home. It is a milestone that brings joy to most people, but it pained Mr. Spiteri, and he said that it
tormented him still.

The problem is the mortgage he had to take on his new house in North Babylon, N.Y. As observant Muslims, the Spiteris try to follow the Islamic prohibition on paying or receiving interest. They pay their credit card bills in full each month. They keep checking but not savings accounts. And when they were ready to buy a home, they sought help from an Islamic cooperative in Houston, the MSI Financial Services Corporation, one of only a handful of such specialists in the country.

That was five years ago. The couple - Mr. Spiteri became a Muslim and his wife, Hoda, is from Egypt - are still on an MSI waiting list for financing.

"It's frustrating when you know there is a right way and a wrong way, and you're being driven toward the
wrong," said Mr. Spiteri, a program manager with Symbol Technologies Inc. in Holtsville, N.Y. "A lot of
people say, `We're in America and we can't change the rules.' I think the important thing is realizing it's wrong and trying to change it."

Faith has never been much of a factor in the mortgage business and fashioning products to accommodate
religious requirements is a novel, even mystifying, idea for regulated institutions like banks. But, mindful of the country's changing demographics, some financial services companies now see the estimated five million to seven million Muslims in America as an untapped market that is growing enough in numbers, wealth and sophistication to justify specialized products.

At least one major lender, HSBC Bank USA, is already positioning itself to mine the Muslim home financing market in the New York City area. Bank officials say they plan to offer a plan tailored to Islamic precepts as early as September to potential home buyers in Brooklyn, Queens and elsewhere on Long Island, where 90 of its 437 American branches are situated. The bank is the American unit of HSBC Holdings, the British parent of the Hongkong and Shanghai Bank.

"Our target market is the second and third generation, educated, middle- class Muslims - the American who believes in his religious values but at the same time is proud to be an American and wants the American dream of owning a car and a home," said Iqbal Khan, head of global Islamic finance for HSBC.

While the biggest demand by far is for home financing, he said, HSBC also is promoting its checking accounts and debit cards as products sensitive to Muslim needs.

The Muslim market, however, is not a typical immigrant or ethnic market that can be reached simply by
educating people about American-style credit or translating mortgage documents.

They may be, as Muslim leaders argue, the fastest-growing subgroup in the national mix. But American Muslims are also a diverse lot of varied national origins, economic status and views toward Western-style credit. While some form of lease-purchase or partnership contract is the standard model for Islamic finance, the details of how it should be structured are a matter of much debate.

So is the more basic issue of whether a conventional bank, with its other interest-based revenues, is a
permissible partner for a Muslim. And since Islam requires that the parties to any contract share equally in the risk, there is disagreement over whether it is proper to participate in a regulated transaction that gives a bank the right to foreclose in the case of a default.

Even Islamic scholars have yet to reach a consensus. Ordinary Muslims, then, tend to take more conservative or skeptical views.

"Because the whole world is based on interest, you sometimes get interpretations that say if you are buying a house and living in it, it's O.K. to have a mortgage, or it's O.K. if you don't get a big house," said Farrukh
Siddiqui, a Pakistani-born Web site developer in Levittown, Pa. who rents an apartment for his family of four. "But a lot of us living in this country now have come to realize this whole interest thing is something we really have to avoid."

HSBC is not alone in entering the Islamic finance business. Recently, a number of smaller mortgage banks and finance houses also announced their interest in the market, following in the steps of the mortgage financing company Freddie Mac, which has promised to provide much-needed liquidity to the Islamic finance business.

In late March, Freddie Mac, which is shareholder-owned and government-chartered, announced it would
invest in Islamic financing contracts that conform to its eligibility requirements, starting with the purchase of an estimated $1 million in contracts from the American Finance House- Lariba, a small Islamic lender in
Pasadena, Calif., that has financed several dozen home purchases through a lease-to-own contract marketed to American Muslims.

Saber Salam, vice president for customer strategies and offerings at Freddie Mac, said he has been contacted by many major banks, mortgage brokers and other institutions that are developing financing options for Muslims.

Based on their interest and on the agency's estimate of the potential Muslim market, he added, Freddie Mac
expects to participate in $3 billion to $5 billion in such contracts the next few years.

If the volume reaches that level, it would represent just a tiny fraction, about 1 percent, of all the home loans that Freddie Mac and its older cousin Fannie Mae participate in each year. But it would be a huge advance for the Islamic home finance market, long limited mainly to homegrown cooperatives like MSI and Lariba that were handicapped by a lack of capital.

The market includes Muslims who have already bought houses using conventional mortgages but, like the
Spiteris, want to refinance, as well as those who held back from buying homes because of a lack of Islamic
alternatives.

To make the program work, Freddie Mac also plans to raise money by selling a bond based on those
contracts, an investment that it can promote to Islamic investors overseas as religiously correct.

The rather sudden interest on the part of financial institutions in the United States is partly a response to the
heightened visibility of American Muslims as they have become more politically active and concentrated in big cities. A substantial number have college educations and household incomes above $50,000 a year. About 40 percent are African-Americans, Muslim organizations say, and the rest are a mix of people of Southeast Asian, East Asian and Arab descent.

At the same time, banks are responding to the growing confidence of many younger Muslims who now demand accommodation from the society around them.

"My parents came here from Pakistan with a very strong impulse to compromise for the opportunities
available," said Naveed M. Siddiqui, vice president for North American marketing at IslamiQ (pronounced
Islam I.Q.), a two-year-old Muslim- run company that advises financial institutions and investors on developing Islamic financing and investment products.

"They figured that they were going to a country where there are few mosques, no real Muslim institutions and as much as they could they would stick to their way of living," he added. "The idea was to buy the right house, even if it meant getting a mortgage, and live in the right neighborhood and be all-American."

Mr. Siddiqui at IslamiQ, 31, grew up as an American, in Roslyn, N.Y., and said he and others of his generation feel more of a sense of entitlement. "That's why the demand for Islamic finance is increasing," he said. "A lot of people are growing up in the West and adapting to Western products. And they're saying, `Let's make demands on the market.' "

Until recently, American Muslims looking for an alternative to a conventional mortgage could turn to self-help groups that pooled money from investors and placed it in a revolving fund that bought homes and leased them to Muslim families.

Abid Shaikh, a vice president at a Merrill Lynch office in Plainsboro, N.J., took a slightly different route. He used his own money to buy homes in partnership with Muslim couples who purchase his stake over time through a lease based on the fair market rent of the house. He has just started a car-leasing business on the same principle.

Although some of his colleagues might think that he has sacrificed his own comforts for his faith, Mr. Shaikh, a 40-year-old who was born in India, said he is not concerned.

"I live in a town house which I bought with all cash," he said. "My peers, including those who are not vice
presidents like me, are living in houses three times as big as mine. Since I have belief in me, those things are not bothering me."

The biggest American experiment in Islamic home-buying contracts was run by the United Bank of Kuwait, which ceased operations in the United States after its merger with the Al-Ahli Commercial Bank of Bahrain last year to form the Alhi United Bank in Bahrain. During the two years before it closed in New York, the United Bank of Kuwait bought and leased back 60 homes for American Muslims.

Its experience provided some valuable lessons. Former employees of that bank said they found that women are often the driving force in a family to find an Islamic alternative to financing; that prospective customers will tolerate somewhat higher monthly payments than a conventional fixed-rate mortgage but not a great deal higher; and that sellers and real estate agents tend to view an unfamiliar financing contract with skepticism.

Abdulkader Thomas, the former general manager of United Bank of Kuwait in New York, has now formed an Islamic mortgage bank, in partnership with Capital Guidance a real estate investment company in Washington, and a marketing firm, MEF Money, based in McLean, Va. He said he hopes to have the bank licensed in 15 to 20 states by September and then to begin offering home financing contracts that would be based on a partnership contract between the bank and the home buyer.

Within a year, American Muslims will have a wide range of financing choices, predicted Abdul-Hakim Dyer, another veteran of the United Bank of Kuwait program.

"There is going to be a mix: small organizations, conventional brokers, big banks," he said. "I wasn't talking this way a year ago. But I've been amazed at how many people were watching what we did" at United Bank of Kuwait.

Mr. Dyer, an independent consultant based in Stamford, Conn., said that he, too, plans to start an Islamic
services business.

"The Muslim community is increasingly sophisticated, regardless of generation," he said. "You may drive a taxi, but you know how to finance a medallion."

"What they're really looking for," Mr. Dyer added, "is an opportunity to get it right, to fit in, to enjoy what
everyone else enjoys and take it to the next level."


Copyright 2001 The New York Times Company |

Gold Standard return?
Will the gold standard return in the next five years? What would cause that?

Yes, there is a 95/5 chance in favor in my estimation.

The US $ will break down in a hyperinflation. The euro will be a failure.(Those who say ORO is wrong about this have not answered his arguments. Alternatively, they could read Rothbard, and say why he is wrong. Again something they have not done.)
The Yen will be hauled down by the dollar collapse, or destroyed first by the Japanese culture. The inability of governments to force people to spend fiat money should be apparent from the situation of Japan. Once the Japanese realize they can't save it's purchasing power either, that will be the end of the yen and a powerful incentive for the Japanese to convert to gold. The Chinese are making the right moves if they were preparing for the use of gold as money.

History has shown a a trend away from the domination of the few over the many. Widespread education and communication technologies are accelerating this trend.

E-gold accounts will grow. Right now, people use their money market funds as bank accounts, with fluctuating earnings on the securities they hold. It's an easy step to go from there to holding some gold in the account, to holding 100% gold.

On the collapse of the US dollar all fiat everywhere will be suspect. The rush to gold will be on. Those who can't get it, will probably be bargaining and bartering in tobacco.

Local credit unions may well become private banks, issuing notes or scrip, 100% backed by gold. Or warehoused tobacco.

The LETs systems will grow rapidly and be a way for local groups to barter among themselves and keep the accounts, bypassing the official "money system" altogethe.

That's my vision anyhow.

FWIW

Goldfan

http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/wb.exe?Perf.web+$NDX,$gold,$tyx,$usd
Sure,it's easy to be discouraged on a day like today.On a positive note, viewed in context with the other big boys,gold is running in a solid second place.USTs appear to be developing some severe leg cramps,king dollar;defying all odds,continues to run on fumes.

Thanks to Homestk Kid for the chart.

I would like to explaine my veiw of money. I have to many to thank for this view. This is not all in my own words, but it is what I have read, contemplated, and feel money is. So here it is, it is is not alot of words, but words can be used just to obscure things. So basically.... "Money is concretized energy, litterally it is GOLD!" Many definitions go to obscure the meaning of money. It is suppose to be something you can work for in your own trade, to trade others for the work they do in thier own trade. I dont have enough energy or time to provide completely for myself. But I can provide enough extra in my own efforts to trade what I have extra for what I need that someone else might have extra. This should be done with money (or something we both have extra to trade for something we need). If we use our efforts to help ourselfes and others, what we obtain past our productivity and needs should be ours in the form of money. Money (or what we call money, but is really concretized energy, and is gold) we work for only to have others extract from us as they controll what we understand as money. Fiat currency is not money. It is only good while it last to buy real money, GOLD. By substituting real money for fake money they have made fake money look real. And they make it look extra good as this fake money can buy ssssooo much real money(Gold). What people understand to be money right now, is an illiusion.

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

French 20 Franc Angels

When the derivatives sell off as we see today,
the metal can be confidently claimed at bargain prices while supplies last.

Remember this:
in times of economic stress,
it is only ownership of the METAL that carries
the full complement of financial benefits
that have been reliably associated with gold throughout history.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

Have you got gold?

Greetings Trail Guide

Concerning your msg#: 57160 and 57176
I have some comments and a reply to a question you asked about whether history has shown that gold is not money, and how Another's writings are at odds with yours and Randy's.

>>>>Trail Guide (06/29/01; 09:47:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 57160)

Money

Exceptional post Randy! It makes a very clear statement that's easy for us to understand:

--- Randy (@ The Tower) (06/28/01; 18:07:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 57115) Sierra Madre and the obscurities of a concept called "money" -----

I want to enter this discussion a bit and use both yours and other's statements. I'm following your lead when you wrote:

-----It's one thing to discuss money or monetary systems generically, but it's time we give the actual concept of "money" (in and of itself) some of the intense attention it
deserves, particularly here at a gold discussion forum. ---------------------( Randy #57115) Gold is definitely wealth; its a highly liquid, immutable, tradable tangible asset. For that reason some of us can never have too much of the stuff. But is it "money"? In your comment to von Braun, you indicated that our units of "dollars" were once upon a time defined as a definite quantity of gold.---------------

ALL:
the above thought creates the correct mindset for grasping just what money is. Gold is not money and never has been. No more so than hats or any other physical item. Back when we had no form of currency both hats and gold could serve the same function in trade. What was that function? The using of an item of wealth,,,,,, the using of some real thing to trade for something else we wanted.

I challenge the readership, including ORO, Journeyman and all others, to search history and show me anywhere that physical gold was traded as money. In every instance you can present, I'll show you gold used in "wealth barter" and incorrectly labeled money. <<<<<


Trail Guide, your statement above "gold is not money and never has been" directly contradicts what was said by Another, are you contending that he didn't understand history?

From Another

>>>>Date: Thu Oct 09 1997 19:00
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:
"Gold is the only money the world has ever known" Sounds like a simple thought but it isn't .
" Money is whatever people say it is" - Not true!
"Currency is whatever a government says it is" - True!
"The LBMA problem"
I can now make clear for all to see.
Background; to understand the following you must rethink your basic knowledge of money and investments. Get your aspirin ready.
Some time ago gold not only was used as money but also circulated as currency. It had always been money and people had no use for a separate currency to represent "gold money" so they stamped the gold itself and used it as circulating currency. From the start, one thing most thinkers can't quite grasp is that "money does not have to circulate"! The first "world money", gold money that is, could stay locked up and still represent value and wealth. People had but to agree on who owned it in exchange for goods and services. You have all read the articles about how paper receipts for "gold money" were later circulated and became paper currency receipts, then paper currency, then just currency.
The western world today, as we know it does not use money ! They use "paper currency".<<<<<

>>>>>One of the great money troubles facing the western currency system today is that many third world people are starting to put a "mind value" on real money, gold. These people don't know the true value of gold money but they know it's worth a whole lot more than the world paper currency price now placed on it. And that brings us to the next problem; how can paper currency that represents "the thoughts of a nation blowing in the wind" be used to value real money of ancient world class proportions, gold? It cannot! Any price you can think of will do, as in no price will work!<<<<<

Yes but what could work would be to value paper money in terms of gold!!!


Trail guide again:

>>>>>Trail Guide (06/29/01; 14:04:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 57176)
comment
snip

VanRip (06/29/01; 13:01:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 57171)
Ross and Another's 60253

I wonder just what Another was thinking when he made that ------"Gold is the only money the world has ever known" Sounds like a simple thought but it isn't"??

I do wish someone would explain that post for us and how it refutes our "Money" discussion.<<<<

I say your point of view in the money discussion is directly contradictory to Another's statement "One of the great money troubles facing the western currency system today is that many third world people are starting to put a "mind value" on real money, gold."

Trail guide again:


>>>>>Further (to message 57160, top of this post)

The only thing that separated gold from hats or any other wealth object was gold's rarity, beauty and unique physical properties. Indeed, a hat's value was worth something in trade, no different than a gold coin. Just not worth as much as gold's value in trade. Neither gold or hats were money
then, or money now. Rather just items of wealth we trade for other items of wealth.,,,,

You've got this inside out. A hat is greatly different from gold in trade, since it has none of gold's unique properties, which have made gold as Another has said, the only real money for thousands of years!! Your talk about the difference between something of wealth value, which has no money value, is pure pedantry, akin to the medieval theologians argumentations about how many angels can dance on the point of a pin. They could carry on for years, because there was no possibility of proving them wrong or right. The argument stopped when they could no longer get paid for this foolishness.
Electronic spots are real. I can carry them stored in plastic in my pocket. Paper money is real. Whether it is effective for the purpose I believe I can use it for is another subject entirely. If I have a 100$ bill on the shelf, it represents wealth, is wealth, to me. Until I come to spend it. If no one wants it, as happened to me recently when a coffee shop wouldn't take it in trade, because they say it is too easy to counterfeit, then I discover my wealth has maybe evaporated. Gold is traded, so is money. It is just baloney to equate money to some abstract, like "desire to spend without earning", and then say, gold is not money because it is real. Read Rothbard and tell me how he is wrong.

Thanks to ORO and The Stranger for pointing me to Rothbard.
mises.org

FWIW
Goldfan

Money is such an important functioning aspect for us, nature provided it for us in the form of gold. At times we just deny it. But exactly what money is, it is Gold. What better serves as a function of money? What will do so at a later time, having no proof behind it? What better is money then GOLD? Perhaps a persons energy is as good. But how do you garantee energy? Easy, concretize it in gold. Look at why the dollar is strong. How much Gold does it buy? Yep alot for how much dollars are out there, compared to money, I mean gold. Make the dollar look strong by what is perceived to be a cheap gold price. Of course, how simple...

Friends this could/will(per below)be really big for Silver, need we say more.(Thanks to Dave Morgan for the article). Recent short term price action changes nothing except gives a further opportunity for accumulation at 5,000 year inflation adjusted lows, now let my kids beat that when they're older - regards Murray.
------------------------------------------------------------

ZINC� MATRIX POWER LAUNCHES ITS FIRST COMMERCIAL BATTERY PRODUCT - THE SILVER POLYMER BATTERY.

Zinc Matrix Power Inc is announcing its first commercial battery product, the Silver Polymer Battery.

Newly developed Silver Polymer Batteries are in routine use at Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. (CME) and in pilot testing by a brokerage on the NYSE Trading Floor. This
innovative new rechargeable battery allows handheld wireless network connected trading computers to run all day. Previously, floor traders had to use bulky belt mounted battery packs with power cords or swap out lithium ion batteries throughout the trading day.

Silver Polymer batteries in daily trading use at the CME. Mike Cheiky, the Chief Technology Officer at Zinc Matrix
Power, Inc., which invented this new technology, says; "The Silver Polymer Battery has an energy to weight ratio comparable to today's state-of-the-art rechargeable lithium
batteries, but, because the silver and zinc reactants are much more dense than lithium and graphite, the Silver Polymer Battery packs much more energy and power into a given size, a feature which is very important in hand-held devices. Silver Polymer prototypes have achieved well over 2 kilowatts per liter, several times the power level of current lithium batteries. This ultra-high peak power ensures that a trading floor handheld can sustain continuous high speed wireless communications with its very demanding pulse power requirements right up to the closing bell, every day."

Traders have enthusiastically adopted Silver Polymer batteries. CME Senior Wireless Systems Engineer, John S. Morris, said, "We recognized that the high energy demands of wireless networking combined with long trading days required a new battery technology. We worked closely with ZMP on requirements for performance, size, and ease of use to arrive at the current design. We are very pleased by the results."

Zinc Matrix Power, Inc. (www.zincmatrix.com) is a venture-funded start up company founded to produce thin, high energy batteries especially designed for the demands of
advanced handheld electronic devices and digital cameras. ZMP is now rolling out Silver Polymer technology for workgroup based handheld applications with consumer-oriented production to follow in 2002.

ZMP Silver Polymer batteries are used to power CME's GALAX-C handheld wireless trading units that facilitate access to CME's electronically traded contracts from the trading pit.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. (www.cme.com) is an international marketplace that brings together buyers and sellers on its trading floors and GLOBEX 2 around-the-clock
electronic trading system. CME offers futures contracts and options on futures primarily in four product areas: interest rates, stock indexes, foreign currencies and agricultural commodities. On Nov. 13, 2000, CME finalized its transformation into a for-profit, shareholder-owned corporation as it became the first U.S. financial exchange to demutualize by converting its membership interests into shares of common stock that can trade separately from exchange trading privileges. The exchange moves about $1 billion per day in settlement payments, manages $28 billion in collateral deposits and administers more than $1 billion of letters of credit.

Money is what I pay my bill's with, either cash or plastic and it is denominated in $'s. Simple as that. In my mind gold is a commodity not money. Well, I expect it to be money "some day" but not now. Fiat currencies, and that is all we have, are doomed to extinction but in the meantime they are money.

I hate to be a broken record but the $ is the king of the hill. Months ago when I suggested 140 $ I was not taken seriously. More believelable now, yes?

As to so called chartists, TA's.. their reliability is inversely proportional to the frequency and hype of their posts. I suggest close attention to Goldenaussie of GE.. that is if you are interested in timing and not just gold philosophy.

The Question before the Table Round: Will you weigh in on the issue?

I would like to ask a question of all the members of this esteemed table:

What kind of odds would you give me that the United States government would go back on a
gold standard in
the next five years? Let's talk numbers. 50-50? 60-40? etc.

Oh, and one more:

What would precipitate it?

After we've kicked that one for awhile, I'll have a follow up for you.

So far. . . .

Megatron. . . . . . . 100-1 probablility against

Mountain Gold. . . . . 100-1 probablility against

Netking . . . . . . .. 60-40 probability againt

Auspec . . . . . . . . 85-15 probability against

Stradmaster. . . . . . 100-1 probablility against (in the key of E)

Black Blade. . . . . . 100-1 probablility against

Goldfly. . . . . . . . 100-1 probablility against (any new songs lately??)

Warren. . . . . . . . .90-10 probability against

Ross L. . . . . . . . .A certainty. It will happen.

Journeyman. . . . . . .Doesn't know.

Mythical. . . . . . . .95-5 probability against

Shifty. . . . . . . . .50-50 (firmly tacked to the fence)

Turbo. . . . . . . . . 100-1 probability against

Peter Asher. . . . . . 100-1 (make that "never")

Turnaround. . . . . . .50-50 (sitting next to Shifty)

Van Rip . . . . . . . .80-20 probability against

j'Bear. . . . . . . . .100-1 probability against (or "infinity" whichever comes first.)

ge. . . . . . . . . . . 100-1 probablility against

Cobra(too). . . . . . . 100-1 probability against (or nil, or hide the women and children the finance ministers and central bankers are meeting.)

Gandalf the White. .. . 100-1 probablility against ( or Read My Lips. . . . . "Never")

BullDrooy. . . . . . . .100-1 probablility against

Flatlander. . . .. . . .100-1 probability against (Congrats on first post)

Ironhead. . . . . . . . 50-50 (Fence person. . . with Shifty and Turnaround)

tedw . . . . . . . . . 100-1 probability against

Turkey Hunter. . . . . .60-40 probability for

RPowell. . . . . . . . .60-40 probability for

Solomon Weaver. . . . . 90-10 probability againt

workingkirk. . . . . . 100-1 probablility for (in five to ten years, he hedges -- but we'll accept it)

goldfan. . . . . . . . 95-5 probability for (hyperinflationary breakdown makes it so)


It looks like the "probability for's" are making a late surge. I don't see much middle ground here. Have we had this up long enough? Welllllllll. . . probably not. . . Let's let it go til tomorrow and see if there's any laggers who want to get their two cents in (I hope I didn't miss anyone in the list. If I did, let me know and we'll get it fixed for the next update.)

Lurkers and posters! Regulars and reserves! Last call. We'd like to hear from you. Every post counts. Don't shirk your duty and responsibility. Post now . . . . Immortality awaits.

3 to 1 that US will adopt a gold standard.

Well, after fiat $ what is left for the world?

Since January the CRB inex is down 11%. Since January the $ index is up 11%. The $ policy makers print $'s and with that new money buy commodities like gold, silver, corn and whatever and then dump it. It costs the FED 26 cents to print a $1000 worth of $'s which is used to buy a $1000 worth of commodities and they can afford to sell it for $900 and still make $899.74. The $ policy makers are sure that the world will choose $'s over gold. If not they will make it happen- even if need be by force.------ I am looking for a means to facilitate barter among a local group and bypassing the official money system altogether. I need some ideas please!!!! The $ will deflate not inflate as debt rises. Same will happen to the Euro once it has decided that it has taken on enough debt. But right now the Euro is taking on debt and a weak Euro makes it much easier to take on $ denominated debt.

When Euroland revalues gold, and our U.S. currency collapses, gold will look attractive as a form of money backing. What else can? Debt. tried that now. I will bet a 75% chance for returning to it in the near future, (my lifetime) ((I am 27)). We will probably not do it by choice so much as rather then by neccesity. And if the world keeps going we will probably depart from it again.

By the way when I say my lifetime in my fallowing response, I believe that will be about 5 years. I am healthy now to my knowledge, but you should see what I eat and do. My energy goes towards destroying myself, much like many others.

Whew! Largely unprepared due to sporadic reading here lately, but my offsite book-carried-with-me is Bernstein's "Power of Gold" from last year. He got low reviews I think from the few mentions here, but it is good background for our topic, and I think you'd be missing some perspective without it. It definitely stretched out the gold "timeline" for me.

Including all the back-and-forth with silver -- _that's_ been going on for a thousand years. And then throw paper into the mix, and the three of them have a go-round in the late 1800's. And that is really the era when gold standard came to be the governments' game of choice, in a setting of international competitiveness to have their moneys acceptable.

Mind you, they still were playing the fractional reserve game, and I think we sometimes mix up aspects of fiat and FR because they are part of the same current mess. How to disentangle in a new gold standard context?

Bernstein jumps right in against gold standard (and I think that explains the reviews against him) but I'm almost to the end and he hasn't made a "worst monetary system -- except for all the rest" conclusion about it so far.

I would just say from my perspective lately that gold standard, as implemented, would first be a throwback to "governmental games", and perhaps that's basically what FOA's been telling us regarding Euro introduction. Playing the cards you're dealt, and it's not hard to play a well-managed fiat vs. the dollar's eventual cave-in.

It will not be the cavalry coming to the rescue of the little guy, or a new era of rectitude in internation finance.

I think the "background gold" concept uses people's remaining faith in fiats and governments, and gold will not be "foregrounded" until absolutely necessary. And our (mostly amateur) analysis here has the Euro getting at least a good run through the decade, with the dollar being "partnered" to follow behind (as delegated by Euro to its own benefit "if you know what's good for you").

Only a renegade breakaway by dollar at that point, or a desperation move (including a Euro breakdown scenario) would tie dollar to the remaining gold reserves, and I think we know what order of magnitude those prices might come in at.

But -- the public psychology so far from gold thinking at this point -- why get them all excited? It would all be done in background, to get the most "bang for the bar" deal.

Dollar is not yet cornered and its demise would have to come on a very precipitous set of declines to bring that event in the next five years. I'll split 5% and 10% and come in at 7.5%, OK?

I have participated over the last 20 years or so in various Barter Exchanges. Am not sure if this is what you are looking for or not. They are 'state recognized' meaning that a barter 'dollar' {credit} is taxed similar to a regular dollar earned. The exchange 'bank' takes a % cut of each transaction in US$'s, and keeps track of everyone's account balances. All official and above board. This is NOT the underground economy.
I have seen many of them fail from abuse, the prized 'goods' cherry picked by 'insiders'. Gosh what a surprise! You also can see classic inflation within them: too many trade credits chasing too few goods. If well run they can work wonderfully, various businessfolks swapping their 'excess capacities' for something of value. I keep my participation well under 10% of my total business and I strive to buy items only reasonably priced, goughing is quite common. The credits don't spend as freely as a FRN would, but I have done very nicely over time with a patient approach.
Hope this helps

US Dollar Index(NYBOT) Sep 120.55 121.29 120.46 121.21s +1.05 7/5/2001 12:09

Let's keep our hands clean out there, people!

I just finished reading #57533 and it came across as pure silver information to me. This stock was somehow promoted? Please explain.
Respectfully,
auspec

http://www.mises.org/mysteryofbanking/mysteryofbanking.pdfProbability of a classical US Gold Standard is probably zero but I'll be conservative and give a probability of 0.0001%. What could cause this? An asteroid that breaks up into tiny fragments before entering the atmosphere and then selectively takes out all bankers and politicians. Did the German's go back to a gold standard after the 1923 hyperinflation? I think they just introduced a new paper note and restricted the presses. A gold standard is not the Holy Grail. You can still have fractional reserve banking with a gold standard and print up lots of gold certificates. If a problem develops the politicians (bankers best friends, and vice versa) can always suspend specie payment at will. Without political integrity no system will work. Politicians do not change and generally reflect the characteristics of the people they represent. I won't elaborate on this fine day after the 4th as the nation turns its gaze back from the fireworks to new health care and other benefits programs being promised. Physical gold alone, held personally is the best guarantee.

What are the odds that Bush and O'Neil have looked the abyss in the eye and made a deal with the devil to buy a little more time. O'Neil's comment of a new "Golden Age" may be revealing if it turns out it was bought with American leased gold. Would they do such a thing? Only in a crisis. Look at lease rates. They spiked shortly after our new President took office and have been moving down steadily for a couple of weeks. I suspect this is not just the summer doldrums or paper derivatives. Is there new physical supply on the market? Americans would be the last to know......i.e., those not bankers or treasury secretaries.

BTW: It seems like it's taking the Judge an awful long time to decide whether the Reg Howe suit can go to discovery. Liberty has it's limits you know. Seems more and more each year. But then there never was a golden age, except maybe in Scotland before the Bank of England took over. I've been reading Murry Rothbard's "The Mystery of Banking" and would recommend it highly. See link at top. Thank you The Stranger for posting it a few days ago.

Putting aside the difering concepts of "money" for a brief moment; would I be too optimistic or naive if I were to assume that we can all at least agree more or less fully with the following statement?

"Gold ((wholly owned metal in hand)) is a form of wealth."

http://www.devvy.com/patman_20000208.htmlJust a snipit

$hifty
----------------------------------------------------

Idiotic System

I believe the time will come when people will demand that this be changed. I believe the time will come in this country when they will actually blame you and me and everyone else connected with this Congress for sitting idly by and permitting such an idiotic system to continue. I make that statement after years of study. I have talked to the Secretary of the Treasury and members of the Federal Reserve Board and other people who are supposed to know about the money system of our country. They know this can be done easily and conveniently, and it will save money; but their one reply is, "It will have a bad psychological effect." Well, I do not think it would have a bad psychological effect to save the people 50% of their national debt. I do not think it would have a bad psychological effect to save the people over a billion dollars a year in interest. [Note: Now it's in excess of $450 Billion per year in usury to the private bankers.] I do not think it would. It would certainly have a bad effect on the people who are collecting interest on the Government's money.

Federal Reserve Privately Owned

We have what is known as the Federal Reserve Bank System. That system is not owned by the Government. Many people think that it is, because it says "Federal Reserve."

It belongs to the private banks, private corporations. So we have farmed out to the Federal Reserve Banking system that is owned exclusively, wholly, 100 percent by the private banks - we have farmed out to them the privilege of issuing the Government's money. If we were to take this privilege back from them we could save the amount of money that I have indicated in enormous interest charges.

We have today about $23,000,000,0000 in gold. This gold is, of course, owned by the Government - title to it is in the Government. Many people say the Federal Reserve bank own it, but they do not own it. Congress passed a law saying that the right, title, and interest in and to that gold is in the Government, but for convenience and in order to carry out this present monetary policy, the Treasury has issued what is known as gold certificates and has turned over to the Federal Reserve banks these gold certificates. So today we hold about $23,000,000,000 in gold. Under the old system of issuing $2.50 in currency to every $1 of gold on the theory that a 40-percent gold base would always be safe, you could take that $23,000,000,000 of gold and issue two and one-half times that much money under our present system. This would amount to fifty-seven or fifty-eight billions of dollars that could be issued on that gold; and then the banks receiving the money could issue all the way from 7 to 10 to 1. You can thus see what a great potential threat of inflation is there if it were exercised, but it will not be exercised, because the people who have charge of the monetary system will not permit it to be exercised.

The point I want to try to make is that the 12 Federal Reserve banks have in their custody these gold certificates which are used the same as gold, which are sufficient to more than pay off the entire national debt. I am not advocating that this be done quickly or suddenly. I am not advocating that any change like this be made quickly, for it would probably be disturbing to the country; but if the Government owned these 12 Federal Reserve banks, as it should - they should be just as much a part of this Government as the Treasury itself - then eventually the national debt could be absorbed by them and this interest burden could be taken off our shoulders.

Mr. WHITE. Mr. Speaker, will the gentleman yield?

Mr. PATMAN. I yield.

Mr. WHITE. The gentleman states that the $23,000,000,000 in gold which is stored in Kentucky, or wherever it may be stored, is owned solely by the Government. How does the gentleman classify the $17,000,000,000 of gold certificates to the credit of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve bank? What class do they fall into? What are they?

Mr. PATMAN. They can be used in international transactions. The Federal Reserve banks cannot get gold unless the gold is needed for one of the purposes specified in the law, and one of these purposes is to settle balances with foreign countries.

Mr. WHITE. Under the gentleman's own statement, then, those very gold certificates are a draft when properly exercised on the gold that is now in the possession of the Federal Government.

Mr. PATMAN. A limited draft, a draft only for the purposed specified by the law.

Mr. WHITE. If we assume there are enough foreign balances to drain off the $23,000,000,000 in gold then it is no longer the property of the Government but must flow cut to redeem those gold certificates.

Mr. PATMAN. That is right regardless of whether the Federal Reserve claimed the gold or whether the Treasury claimed it. If our balances were so unfavorable as to drain that gold off that is what would happen.

Mr. WHITE. The gentleman knows that hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of foreign gold has been brought over into this country for storage for safekeeping; and when this emergency of war is over this gold will flow out again.

Mr. PATMAN. That will depend on trade balances.

Mr. WHITE. It is possible that it may flow out. Those gold certificates will then be a demand on that gold which must be honored. Am I right?

Mr. PATMAN. Yes, and they expect to honor them if they go to settle international balances, because the law says gold cannot be released except to use in the arts, trades, sciences, to settle international balances and possibly other reasons but these are the principle ones.

Mr. WHITE. I am talking now of the gold that is in storage supposed to be owned by the Federal Government. The law as I understand it requires that the issuance of Federal Reserve currency must be backed by 40 percent gold. How is the currency new in circulation backed? I think it is $7,000,000,000 is it not?

Mr. PATMAN. Nine billion dollars.

Mr. WHITE. Is that backed by 40 percent gold?

Mr. PATMAN. It is backed by much more than 40 percent; it is backed by 200 percent.

Mr. WHITE. The gentleman has just stated that the gold was not owned by the Federal Government.

Mr. PATMAN. The title to it is in the Federal Government. The same Government that owns the gold issues the money, and the Government that issues the money has $23,000,000,000 in gold. So there is more than 200-percent reserve behind the outstanding currency.

Mr. WHITE. I must have misunderstood the gentleman because he said the banks were exercising the prerogative of the government in issuing money.

Mr. PATMAN. They are issuing it for the Government on the Government's credit: yes.

I suggest that this matter should receive the attention of the Members of the House.

Adjourned.

* * * *

http://www.gmlets.u-net.com/
Sir Christian you said
>>>I am looking for a means to facilitate barter among a local group and bypassing the official money system altogether. I need some ideas please!!!!<<<

An answer to your question
the Link above describes the LETS, Local Exchange Trading Systems which are being successfully used in many small communities to bypass the money and let people barter with each other for all their basic needs.

Cheers

Goldfan

Issued April 5, 1933I don't remember where I copied this from.
Its good to read it every once in a while.

$hifty

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

UNDER EXECUTIVE ORDER OF THE PRESIDENT

Issued April 5, 1933

All persons are required to deliver

ON OR BEFORE MAY 1, 1933

All GOLD COIN, GOLD BULLION, AND GOLD CERTIFICATES

Now owned by them to a Federal Reserve Bank, branch or agency, or to any
member bank of the Federal Reserve System.

EXECUTIVE ORDER

Forbidding The hoarding of gold coins, gold bullion and gold certificates.

By virtue of the authority vested in me by Section 5(b) of the Act of
October 6, 1917, as amended by Section 2 of the Act of March 9, 1933,
entitled "An Act to provide relief in the existing national emergency in
banking, and for other purposes", in which amendatory Act Congress declared
that a serious emergency exists. I, Franklin D. Roosevelt, President of the
United States of America, do declare that said national emergency still
continues to exist and pursuant to said section do hereby prohibit the
hoarding of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates within the
continental United States by individuals, partnerships, associations and
corporations and hereby prescribe the following regulations for carrying out
the purposes of this order:

Section 1. For the purposes of this regulation, the term "hoarding" means
the withdrawal and withholding of gold coin, gold bullion or gold
certificates from the recognized and customary channels of trade. The term
"person" means any individual, partnership, association or corporation.

Section 2. All persons are hereby required to deliver on or before May 1,
1933, to a Federal reserve bank or a branch or agency thereof or to any
member bank of the Federal Reserve System all gold coin, gold bullion and
gold certificates now owned by them or coming into their ownership on or
before April 28, 1933, except the following:

(a) Such amount of gold as may be required for legitimate and customary use
in industry, profession or art within a reasonable time, including gold
prior to refining and stocks of gold in reasonable amounts for the usual
trade requirements of owners mining and refining such gold.
(b) Gold coin and gold certificates in an amount not exceeding in the
aggregate $100.00 belonging to any one person; and gold coins having a
recognized special value to collectors of rare and unusual coins.
(c) Gold coin and bullion earmarked or held in trust for a recognized
foreign government or foreign central bank or the Bank of International
Settlements.
(d) Gold coin and bullion licensed for other proper transactions (not
involving hoarding) including gold coin and bullion imported for reexport or
held pending action on applications for export licenses.

Section 3. Until otherwise ordered any person becoming the owner of any gold
coin, gold bullion, or gold certificates after April 28, 1933, shall, within
three days after receipt thereof, deliver the same in the manner prescribed
in Section 2; unless such gold coin, gold bullion or gold certificates are
held for any of the purposes specified in paragraphs (a), (b) or (c) of
Section 2; or unless such gold coin or gold bullion is held for purposes
specified in paragraph (d) of Section 2 and the person holding it is, with
respect to such gold coin or bullion, a licensee or applicant for license
pending action thereon.

Section 4. Upon receipt of gold coin, gold bullion or gold certificates
delivered to it in accordance with Section 2 or 3, the Federal reserve bank
or member bank will pay therefor an equivalent amount of any other form of
coin or currency coined or issued under the laws of the United States.

Section 5. Member banks shall deliver all gold coin, gold bullion and gold
certificates owned or received by them (other than as exempted under the
provisions of Section 2) to the Federal reserve banks of their respective
districts and receive credit or payment therefor.

Section 6. The Secretary of the Treasury, out of the sum made available to
the President by Section 501 of the Act of March 9, 1933, will in all proper
cases pay the reasonable costs of transportation of gold coin, gold bullion
or gold certificates delivered to a member bank or Federal reserve bank in
accordance with Sections 2, 3, or 5 hereof, including the cost of insurance,
protection, and such other incidental costs as may be necessary, upon
production of satisfactory evidence of such costs. Voucher forms for this
purpose may be procured from Federal reserve banks.

Section 7. In cases where the delivery of gold coin, gold bullion or gold
certificates by the owners thereof within the time set forth above will
involve extraordinary hardship or difficulty, the Secretary of the Treasury
may, in his discretion, extend the time within which such delivery must be
made. Applications for such extensions must be made in writing under oath,
addressed to the Secretary of the Treasury and filed with a Federal reserve
bank. Each application must state the date to which the extension is
desired, the amount and location of the gold coin, gold bullion and gold
certificates in respect of which such application is made and the facts
showing extension to be necessary to avoid extraordinary hardship or
difficulty.

Section 8. The Secretary of the Treasury is hereby authorized and empowered
to issue such further regulations as he may deem necessary to carry out the
purposes of this order and to issue licenses thereunder, through such
officers or agencies as he may designate, including licenses permitting the
Federal reserve banks and member banks of the Federal Reserve System, in
return for an equivalent amount of other coin, currency or credit, to
deliver, earmark or hold in trust gold coin and bullion to or for persons
showing the need for the same for any of the purposes specified in
paragraphs (a), (c) and (d) of Section 2 of these regulations.

Section 9. Whoever willfully violates any provision of this Executive Order
or of these regulations or of any rule, regulation or license issued
thereunder may be fined not more than $10,000, or, if a natural person, may
be imprisoned for not more than ten years, or both; and any officer,
director, or agent of any corporation who knowingly participates in any such
violation may be punished by a like fine, imprisonment, or both.
__________________

This order and these regulations may be modified or revoked at any time.

FRANKLIN D. ROOSEVELT

The White House
April 5, 1933


For Further Information Consult Your Local Bank

GOLD CERTIFICATES may be identified by the words "GOLD CERTIFICATE"
appearing thereon. The serial number and the Treasury seal on the face of a
GOLD CERTIFICATE are printed in YELLOW. Be careful not to confuse GOLD
CERTIFICATES with other issues which are redeemable in gold but which are
not GOLD CERTIFICATES. Federal Reserve Notes and United States Notes are
"redeemable in gold" but are not "GOLD CERTIFICATES" and are not required to
be surrendered

Special attention is directed to the exceptions allowed under section 2 of
the Executive Order.
__________________

CRIMINAL PENALTIES FOR VIOLATION OF EXECUTIVE ORDER

$10,000 fine or 10 years imprisonment, or both, as provided in Section 9 of
the order.

Secretary of the Treasury.

Michael re <<<>>> In keeping with the concepts spoken of here and the value of all posters comments, how 'bout we change the idiom to 'get their tenth ounce in.'

Funny you should mention that, Peter. The first time I wrote that I said "get their two ounces in" and scratched it. So I know what you're saying with "get their one tenth ounce in". "Two bits" might work also since it represents one quarter of the old Spanish silver 8 reales coins upon which our monetary system was originally structured. Back in the colonial days, while the original continental issued reams of worthless script, innovative consumers cut the old pillar "dollars" into pie-shaped eighths for exchange purposes -- thus two bits, four bits, six bits, a dollar. But that would be lost to the reader who doesn't know the history. Speaking of the writing art, have you seen Finding Forrester yet. Decent flick. I saw a review of it by Otto Scott -- a very good writer and gold advocate -- who remarked that Sean Connery's character actually talked about writing the way writers talk about it. He was impressed. There's an interesting exchange about starting a sentence with "But" or "And", that you might appreciate.

admin (07/05/01; 16:35:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 57543)
Tsk, tsk... msg#: 57533 looks an awful lot like a promo/commercial Let's keep our hands clean out there, people!
------------------------------------------------------------
Admin. - Sorry about this folks, I have should have proofed and deleted the Co name before posting. I can confirm though while I do own plenty of PM's I don't own the shares of the Co. concerned. Your comments respectfully noted and taken on board. - kind regards Murray

Spanish silver 8 reales coins upon which our monetary system was originally structured. Back in the colonial days, while the original continental issued reams of worthless script, innovative consumers cut the old pillar "dollars" into pie-shaped eighths for exchange purposes -- thus two bits, four bits, six bits, a dollar.

----


MK - This plays into the reason why I think that silver is the poor man's gold. Silver will always represent something that is about 1/10 - 1/100 as valuable as gold. A bag of Junk quarters today runs at about $4000 for 4000 quarters....a buck a piece.

A nice common date high grade Morgan Dollar sells for near $100.....Four of these or a single pre 1933 gold ounce???

Poor old Solomon.






122b4b7deb

http://www.chaos-onomics.com/falsegods.htmDon't know if this was posted previously, but in light of the very interesting on-going discussion on the nature and definition of money (which I have unfortunately only been able to read a few pieces of), I thought this short essay had an interesting perspective...

Speaking of "bits" as in 2 bits, for a quarter dollar, etc. - The custom of fractions in pricing of stocks has carried until just recently on Wall Street. This is a result of the slicing of Spanish Reales for "change" or fractions of a reale or US Dollar. Stocks continued to be traded in fractions since the first trades under the button tree on Wall Street (Pre-Revolutionary America). BTW, Wall Street is so named because of a stone wall that ran the length of what is now Wall Street. As I recall, the USA GOLD castle had a cache of old Spanish gold doubloons on hand for the holidays. Would be a shame to slice them up for "bits." ;-)

Amazing what we discuss here from time to time.Cheers!

- Black Blade

http://www.energyintel.com/ResDocDetail.asp?document_id=41286
Many out-of-state energy providers are debating whether to continue doing business with California. They not only fear not getting paid for providing energy, they also are concerned about the hostile anti-business environment in California and the threat of new legislation and penalties for that abstract concept "price gouging." What is the legal definition of "Price Gouging" anyway? Five providers have already turned their backs on California and others plan to do the same. These businesses prefer to do business elsewhere. Meanwhile, the price of natural gas is rising again with California natural gas prices surging much much higher. The California economy looks to be in deep trouble. "Interesting Times." Cheers!

- Black Blade

Gold - Cheap Insurance - Proven Protection!

I read your Reales history aloud to our house full of guests and somehow it led to singing a few rounds of "Jolly, Jolly Sixpence."

Thanks for the movie review. We need all the intelligent unbiased reports we can get.

Re <> I gather you noticed, hmmm? Robin doesn't often pre-read my posts, but when she does you can bet there is "An exchange about my starting a sentence with 'But' when it should ideally be 'And." {:-)

You got mail!

No 'And' OR 'But.' Just Also, Furthermore or However.

http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=Elect&ARTICLE_ID=106417
Snippit:

HOUSTON, July 5 -- Southern California Edison Co. said, despite lower energy use and more supply than previously anticipated, blackouts are still "expected" during the summer. Offsetting gains, electricity imports are lower than anticipated in California and interruptible load participation is already near its limits. The SCE summer assessment resulted in a similar forecast for blackouts as the California Independent System Operator. Even though increased conservation has reduced energy use 4-5%, compared with 2000 and more qualifying facility (QF) generators are on line than previously anticipated, imports are drastically reduced from the Northwest and Southwest. Moreover, SCE said it has limited ability to call on interruptible load as the summer progresses.

Black Blade: A long hot summer is here and fewer willing power providers adds up to more "Blackouts."

I really haven't read your writing with that critical an eye -- at least from the "proper English" perspective. Let's face it, if you've read my morning reports on a consistent basis along with most of my posts, you would unfailingly note that I'm really not in any position to give others writing advice. In a venue like this, the most important thing is to get the message out quickly. By the way, the movie comes to an interesting conclusion about the use of But and And to start a sentence. I do it all the time so I was pleased with the scene.

I remember reading an article by a popular local sports writer, in which he tells the story of an intern coming to him for the summer. The intern writes an article in which he begins a sentence with the word "But." The veteran writer being the good mentor tells him he shouldn't do that. The intern taking offense says, "But you do it all the time, Mr._________" citing several recent examples. Red-faced the sports writer replies,"That's because I'm me. I've been doing this for 25 years. I can start a sentence with "But." You can't. You're you. When you become me, you can start a sentence with But.. . ." So much for universally applied rules of grammar.

Onward, my friends. . . . .

Yes, your right, gold is a form of wealth. Gold happens to be the 'common denominator' par excellance'.

Reg Howe suit will never go to discovery, that is the response I get from a number of Congressmen. The FED has monetised the entire economy. It used to be that our Treasury controlled the gold but that is no longer so. It has all been sold to the FED along with a good part that is still in the ground. Credit Creation gold is a bundle of commodities made up of grains, oil, natural gas, metals and housing. The FED now controls the GSE's that make up the housing part. Gold and silver are part of the metals group. The rest is self explanitory. Lumber is left out for it is considered part of housing. Social Security and Medicare are a pay as you go system. It is presently financed by simply printing the money, buy a commodity to monetise the newly printed dollars and sell the commodities purchased to fund the system. Most Social Security income goes into the general fund for other purposes. In the future Social Security and Medicare people will be monetised on property owned. You will be the property along with everything else you own.

http://www.caiso.com/SystemStatus.htmlVery close to a rolling blackout. The upper green line is electrical resources available. The blue line is what they predicted. The red line is reality. Usually reality is a little greater than predicted. Today was different. A big drop in expected use. Energy conservation programs? Anyway, this could be a first sign the grasshoppers are taking things seriously. The father of a friend of mine lost $500,000 in PG&E bonds, a very large chunck of his retirement. I hold California responsible for this. I would not sell California another BTU at any price. Sorry PH in LA. Sorry MK if this is OT.

Trail Guide (06/29/01; 09:47:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 57160)

>>>Absolutely! No currency,,,,, no money,,,,, in our history has been able to withstand the socialist expansions of man's printing press. Even his minting press had expansive ways! When we used physical gold coin alone,,,,, that barter able wealth,,,,, and labeled it money,,,, we immediately
expanded it's circulation by lending it from banks.>>>

ji

The only way golds circulation can be expanded by lending it from banks is through fraud. Why not just call it what it is and recognize and prosecute fraud?

I apologize if this has already been discussed, but one of the Speculator newsletter excerpts featured a reader who was going to start trading the 1 kilo gold contract, as its size was such that to take delivery was more practical for smaller investors who wanted to take more concrete action to get gold where it needs to be. I had not considered it, but it makes good sense as I often feel powerless as an individual and wished I had the dough to take delivery and stick my little stake in the cabal. The margin ($350-450) for it is very low and it won't break any goldbug that has been taking it in the keeyster as long as some of us have; am I missing something? or is this a great way for the little guys to make some noise?

At the close of trading in South Africa July 05 2001
the dividend yields of the SA Gold Majors were:

MINE PERCENT DIVIDEND YIELD

Anglo Gold 4.95

Gold Fields 3.15

Harmony 2.83

Does anyone have the current dividend yields on the other
majors from the U.S./ Canada/ Australia ?

Is this what you mean? The Fed buy's gold or gold in the ground from banks similarly to what it does with buying bonds in open market actions to create fractional dollar reserves for these banks in their Fed account? These gold assets could then be sold on the open market for other assets without affecting the credit reserves of the banks.

Where are ya buddy? I hope you went short that Swf contract.
Seems to track Gold in a loopy lagged kind of way,no? Man, I'd be scared to short the $US. Just when you think you've got a perfect double bottom.....damn Swiss ; )

http://www.prudentbear.com/credit.htm"Broad money supply jumped $32.8 billion last week. The money supply (M3) has now increased $666 billion since the end of October (33 weeks), an annualized rate of 15%. Over this period, institutional money market fund assets have surged $270 billion, or at an annualized rate of 57%. Retail money funds have increased $79 billion, or at a 14% rate. Institutional money fund assets have now surpassed $1 trillion, doubling since October 1998. I could only chuckle at today's Bloomberg headline: "ECB Money Supply Rises for Third Month, Signalling Inflation Still Untamed." Euro-zone broad money supply expanded at an annual rate of 5.4% during May."

----

The mathematagician in me notes that $666 B divided by 33 W is $20B/W.....so $32B is a little more than usual...no?

Poor old Solomon

Yes, with that kind of inflationary nonsense being heralded as 'prudent fiscal management' I am not surprised at the level of confidence the short term FX traders have going long in the $US/? currency pairings

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?uThe Nikkei could fall below 12000 by the end of the week at this rate. Looks to get very ugly - "Interesting Times."

Gary North's REALITY CHECK Issue 63 July 4, 2001
> INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATION FOR A NEW MILLENNIUM
>
> Technically, this is the first American Independence
> Day celebration for the new millennium.
>
> It's a good day to think back on the world we have
> lost. We were handed a great legacy by 56 brave men who
> put their lives on the line when they put their names on
> the paper. The Declaration of Independence was passed by
> the Continental Congress on July 2, but signed on July 4.
> They prudently kept their signatures secret for several
> months.

> www.nara.gov/exhall/charters/declaration/dechrist.html
>
> The split with England had been developing for over a
> decade. It became a reality in Massachusetts in the spring of 1775, with the famous midnight ride of Paul Revere and the assembling of what became known in retrospect as the minute men. British troops were coming to confiscate the guns and ammunition of the local militia. The militia had other ideas. These ideas later resulted in the Second Amendment of the U.S. Constitution.
>
> The war had begun over a dispute about taxation. The
> colonists wanted to have control over taxation through
> their legislatures and local assemblies. They did not want to submit to England's taxation from London. They also
were unhappy with the Empire's restrictions on trade. John Hancock was a smuggler, not an insurance salesman.
>
> Not many Americans know what the level of taxation was in 1775. I did a graduate school paper on this topic over 30 years ago. English taxes were in the range of 1% of
income in most colonies, and possibly as high as 2.5% in the plantation colonies. For this, they went to war.
>
> The issue was not merely money; it was a matter of
> sovereignty. The minority of colonists who followed Sam
> Adams and Patrick Henry were convinced that Parliament did
> not lawfully possess sovereignty in America, which English
> constitutional theory asserted. These men were breaking
> with the idea of the British empire.
>
> There was a religious issue, too: the threat of the
> Church of England's sending a bishop to the colonies. A
> bishop had to ordain priests. The bishop who possessed
> this authority over colonial churches was the bishop of
> London. It took a long and expensive trip to London for a
> man to be ordained. Congregationalists, Baptists, and
> Presbyterians preferred it this way. They regarded the
> Church of England -- correctly -- as an extension of
> British rule in America. (See the 1962 book by Carl
> Bridenbaugh, MITRE AND SCEPTRE.)
>
> The war was fought over sovereignty: taxation,
> religion, and the proper distribution of powers within
> civil government. The colonists who went to war with
> England did not trust central government. They regarded
> the lawful authority of civil government as one government
> among many, sharing authority with self-government, family
> government, and church government. They regarded with
> hostility Parliament's claim of total sovereignty over the
> affairs of British citizens.
>
> Today, most Americans regard such theoretical and
> theological issues as quaint, or curious, or naive. The
> central government does not officially claim the absolute
> sovereignty that British legal theory claimed for
> Parliament in 1776, but in fact the invasion of our
> liberties is far worse than anything conceived by the most
> traditional of Tory political theorists in 1776.
>
> A slogan in the era of the American Revolution was "No taxation without representation." Today, we have
representation, and our taxes reflect a level of confiscation that would have been regarded as tyrannical by citizens of every nation in 1776.
> >
> ANCIENT TAXATION TYRANNY
>
> In ancient Israel, when the people came to the prophet Samuel to request that he ordain a king, he warned them against doing this.
>
> And he will take the tenth of your seed, and of
> your vineyards, and give to his officers, and to
> his servants. And he will take your menservants,
> and your maidservants, and your goodliest young
> men, and your asses, and put them to his work.
> He will take the tenth of your sheep: and ye shall
> be his servants (I Samuel 8:15-17).
>
> The Hebrews had been enslaved in Egypt. Their
deliverance by God had established them as a nation. Under Joseph, God had placed Egypt into a form of bondage. The
Pharaoh had collected grain as taxes for seven years, storing it for a coming famine. Then the central
government sold it back to the people when the famine hit.
By the second year, they were ready to sell their land to
Pharaoh.
>
> Wherefore shall we die before thine eyes, both
> we and our land? buy us and our land for bread,
> and we and our land will be servants unto Pharaoh:
> and give us seed, that we may live, and not die,
> that the land be not desolate. And Joseph bought
> all the land of Egypt for Pharaoh; for the Egypt-
> ians sold every man his field, because the famine
> prevailed over them: so the land became Pharaoh's
> (Genesis 47:19-20).
>
> Then they accepted forced relocation into the cities
> of Egypt (v. 21). "Only the land of the priests bought he
> not; for the priests had a portion assigned them of
> Pharaoh, and did eat their portion which Pharaoh gave them:
> wherefore they sold not their lands" (v. 22).
>
> Then Joseph said unto the people, Behold, I have
> bought you this day and your land for Pharaoh:
> lo, here is seed for you, and ye shall sow the
> land. And it shall come to pass in the increase,
> that ye shall give the fifth part unto Pharaoh,
> and four parts shall be your own, for seed of
> the field, and for your food, and for them of
> your households, and for food for your little
> ones. And they said, Thou hast saved our lives:
> let us find grace in the sight of my lord, and
> we will be Pharaoh's servants (vv. 23-25).
>
> Egypt was the most bureaucratic tyranny in the ancient world. But for today's residents of the Western
democracies to return to the level of tax tyranny of Egypt, it would require tax cuts of at least 50%. To return to
the authoritarian rule of the Hebrew kings, it would take a tax cut of 75%.
>
A century ago, no Western nation had a level of taxation greater than the burden of the Hebrews under the kings.
>
What the West has surrendered to the central government since World War I has been its liberty. We are not free men by the prevailing standards of 1913.
>
Americans like to think of themselves as a free people. We occasionally even sing the phrase, "land of the free and the home of the brave." But we sing it ever less frequently. I have not been to a patriotic Fourth of July parade as an adult. I have never heard a single Fourth of July political speech. Few Americans under age 55 have.
>
We shoot off a few firecrackers. We drive out to some
location and watch an hour of tax-funded fireworks. But
that's about all that remains of the Fourth of July.
>
How many Americans have ever read all of the Declaration of Independence? Not many. Few students in high school ever spend as much as one class period studying
its accusations against the king.
>
"THEY DON'T KNOW THE DIFFERENCE"
>
My first full-time job was with the Foundation for Economic Education (FEE), in Irvington-on-Hudson, New York. Its founder, Leonard E. Read, used to give a speech in
which he surveyed the history of American taxation. He
showed how the rates had grown higher until the state was
extracting 40% or more of our wealth. Step by step,
American voters had adopted the politics of plunder. Read
then concluded: "They don't know the difference between
freedom and slavery."
>
He was right. Most people don't know the difference. The number of free societies is declining today. Communism
was a terrible evil, but the governments that replaced
Communist rule are not free societies by 1913 standards.
>
There is comparative freedom, of course, just as there
are comparatively strong fiat currencies -- compared to
each other today. But World War I destroyed the international gold standard, the free movement of
individuals (there were no mandatory passports in the West
in 1913), and single-digit taxation.
>
The voters do not know the difference. They think
there was an eleventh commandment: "Thou shalt not steal,
except by majority vote." They have adopted the politics
of plunder, best described by Frederic Bastiat a century
and a half ago in his great little book, THE LAW. He
presents three choices for a society:
>
> 1. The few plunder the many.
>
> 2. Everybody plunders everybody.
>
> 3. Nobody plunders anybody.

We are clearly in living under system two. To regain our freedom -- to return to system three -- will take more
than a declaration of independence. It will take a revolution in our thinking as Americans.
>
I can think of no better booklet to read on Independence Day than Bastiat's THE LAW. When British taxation in 1776 looks like a utopian restoration of liberty, we have a lot of educational work ahead of us.
>
> www.econlib.org/library/Bastiat/basEss2a.html

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.aspThe USD is very strong lately, and the Brit Slider could be at parity with the USD soon. The Euro is pathetic. A race to devalue? Who's the "Weakest Link?" Should get "Interesting."

Ross : I have wanted to ask you what is the coin you have over the top of the SDR chart?

Thanks

$hifty

Your Prudentbear link is a good read. I note the enabler is mentioned there in that during the early 90's the fed gave up control in an undisclosed (in that article) fashion to the GSE and MMF (Fannies and Money Market Funds) to provide the markets with the needed liquidity. When that control was given up, pandora's enabler was set loose to create the great late 20th Century bubble in stocks and real estate. The markets thirst for and its ability to quench its own liquidity is the enabler of this bubble. Once the power to create money was delegated -- control was lost. The ever increasing need for liquidity through credit creation has caused the charts to take on their exponential contours. I suspect the same liquidity as Christian so eloquently points out is being used to buy and sell commodities in the manner that we witness daily such that a future's rise in price can not be tolerated because of the systemic risk it would create. Higher gold and higher liquidity can not exist in the same Universe together. Sad, eh?View Yesterday's Discussion.

Wife finds out her mentor works for a guy who makes 4 mil a year. It has her attention. It is what makes the world go around. It is money and make no mistake about it.

how did the fed just give up control? Did they merely look the other way or what is the exact procedure as to how a fed gives up control? Thoughts?

miner49er (07/05/01; 18:46:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 57554)
On Money...

"Don't know if this was posted previously, but in light of the very interesting on-going discussion on the nature and definition of money (which I have unfortunately only been able to read a few pieces of), I thought this short essay had an interesting perspective..."

Yes sir, it most certainly does. Thank you so much for this link. It was remarkable enough for me to break my little rule about laying off of posting to the forum for awhile (this place grows on you after awhile) to extend my appreciation. Some of Dave Lewis' other little pieces should also be read before posting the answer to Sir Randy's question.

http://www.chaos-onomics.com/james.htm
http://www.chaos-onomics.com/inflation.htm

His philosophical take on physics is a little weak-
http://www.chaos-onomics.com/gravity.htm

I will be putting up a post in a few days explaining, for all time, precisely what money is, since I am absolutely certain of this.

"Bertrand Russell is reported to have said, "The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts." "
--Dave Lewis

USAGOLD (07/05/01; 15:19:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 57535)
"Gold Standard Update. . . .
The Question before the Table Round: Will you weigh in on the issue?
I would like to ask a question of all the members of this esteemed table:
What kind of odds would you give me that the United States government would go back on a
gold standard in
the next five years? Let's talk numbers. 50-50? 60-40? etc.
Oh, and one more:
What would precipitate it?"

My guess: 100% certain we are already on a gold standard since world-wide, at the government/banking levels, gold is still the yardstick that measures value. And among the general populace, gold is already used as a store of value, or savings, just as TrailGuide says. All that is needed to free gold and allow it to return to it's proper value is for governments/banks to stop lending and forward-selling gold they don't have.

Another question is will gold circulate as money among the general populace of the U.S.?
My guess: 60/40 against
Precipitory events: 1. Dollar Hyperinflation 2.World War III
Both events (I hope and pray) unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibility. The chaos that would follow would surely bring on strong reactive behavior, a sudden and powerful movement to return to solid values. And, under those conditions, I don't see the U.S. gov't making it easy for U.S. citizens to deal in Euros. Distrust in gov't currency would more likely lead to trade in metals (gold, silver, even copper).

Thanks to all for your efforts in posting here.

And to USAGOLD, Randy, and TrailGuide:
This forum and your words here are VERY IMPORTANT to those of us out here lurking and looking for wisdom. Your words are trusted and you influence many more lives than you can guess. Thank you!

simply me

In light of the on-going discussions on value and money here, I felt I should clarify my statement.
"All that is needed to free gold and allow it to return to it's *proper value* is for governments/banks to stop lending and forward-selling gold they don't have."
I suppose I should have said, "for currency values of gold to return to proper levels."

Golden dreams all,
simply

http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htm
The US mint struck a new commemorative 90% silver dollar this year. The design is based on the old buffalo nickel. The coin shown is one of the proof strikes. These is an arc of discoloration on the scan in the lower half, that is an artifact from the scanner reflecting on the plastic case of the proof coin. It sold out 500,000 coins within a few days.

They also had a coin and currency set that sold out within hours. That was a set containing this coin and a reproduction of an 1890's silver certificate that has an indian head on the picture.

There is more info at the US Mint web site.

Just read all of FOA's Trail. I am now exiting the site having truly benefited from all the the internet discussions from everyone. We have now to sit back and be patient having accumulated all we need for the coming new world economic order. I believe it is no use watching the machinations of the market minute by minute because when the event comes that we are waiting for, the $100 price gyrations will make todays minute variations pale into insignificance. The tree will not be FOA's bonsai but a massive oak that overarches the whole world. Its stump has been in the ground for a long while but the branches are about to fully shoot.
Thank you for the journey, it very enjoyable but the best is yet to come, so we must walk enlightened with the knowledge of the ancients.

The FED has the right to print money (through the Treasury). Fed buys government debt with money printed on a printing press and charges the taxpayers the interest cost. Fed buys gold and silver and other commodities with money printed on a printing press and then dumps it on the market. The idea is to monetise it before it goes into private hands. The only way gold can be set free if the FED stops monetising it.-- Fannie + Freddie now operate like government debt. Fannie + Freddie create money by borrowing from money markets where the FED is increasingly the one supplying the money markets with newly printed cash which the GSE's use to buy mortgaged-backed securities from banks who use the new cash as deposits for new loans. Presently the loan ratio to deposits on most banks is $6.00 in reserves for every $100.00 out on loans. -- Since January the CRB index is down 11% and the $ index is up 11%. The reason for it is because the FED buys gold or silver with newly printed dollars and then dumps it. This $ + Euro policy over gold will assure that the world will choose $ or Euro over gold. The only wild card in this game is China and Russia and the Middle East. By working together they could make gold to serve as money. WE are NOT one nation nation under god; we are one nation under greed. Government is not of the people, by the people, and for the people; it is of the multinational corporation, by the multinational corporation, and for the multinational corporation.

Watch for the Roman Agreement (G7-Sunday)

Thanks people for the links, really interesting reading!!!


models of reality
On Money...


Goldfan

Thanks
$hifty

Hope I'm not to late. Been working back to back twelve hour shifts and it is hard to do much reading here at the forum.
Unfortuneately, people need 24 hour care when walking the the thin line between life and death, and as such, I am one who is humbled and gratified in having a positive effect on getting people back to a state of homeostasis.

Anyway, in regards to the question posed by Mr. Kosares, I say that there would have to be an incredible event(s) that resulted in huge losses for the creators of our currencies to return to a 100% gold backed monetary system. This would probably include suffering on such a grand scale that it would make the agonies of the Great Depression seem like a tea party.

If such events occur that make the present system unprofitable to the money creators, then I would say there is a 70% chance of a return to gold. But even then, I suspect it would incorporate much red tape such that the common man would still be hard pressed to obtain the full benefits of a gold standard (for example increased taxes to siphon off profits accumulated to the individual and transferred back to the controllers of the issued coin of the realm).

Barring any such loss of power and control to the Fed, et.al., I don't see a return to gold ever, unless the almighty makes a personal appearance and eliminates all those who would otherwise enslave us. But I guess this would certainly fall under the category of an incredible event, and it would most assuredly carry with it suffering of a magnitude never before seen...at least for some! Can you say "Apocalypse"?

As a side note I would like to thank ji, Tree in the Forest and any others who I may have forgotten in helping me with my understanding of how we got from a Constitutional gold/silver based currency to our present unconstitutional fiat. I am still digesting your posts and links and have more questions for you all. A little more pondering is required on my part, so in the meantime I wish everyone here the courage to stand, question, and if necessary, fight for what you know in your heart is just and right.

"And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our Sacred Honor." (The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America) Amen!

Viva Liberty!

Yukon

SPOT has awakened again !
Jump SPOT, JUMP.
<;-)

My own view is that we have a 50% chance of going to a system inclusive of gold in the next five years. I know that's going to surprise some readers but I've thought this for a very long time. Note that I say inclusive of gold, not a gold standard. I believe that the system would be at least partly, if not fully, modeled after the euro system where gold is marked to market on a quarterly basis. This will bring the 8000 tonne U.S. reserve into play at a much higher gold price than what we see now -- four figures is not out of the realm of possibility.

Why would it happen? Because faith in the dollar will have crumbled internationally or because policy-makers decided that the time was right to make a pre-emptive strike against the possibility of an international economic breakdown. U.S. economic policy makers would come to the same conclusion that euro policy makers already have -- gold raises the confidence level of the world financial community -- investors, financial stalwarts, central bankers and finance ministers alike. The decision will come quietly, probably secretly, at high level meetings. An agreement will be signed and the Secretary of the Treasury and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve will be assigned the task of selling the idea to the Congress (which is mandated to approve it) and the American people, as well as the people of Europe and Japan -- the world three largest economies -- and the rest of the G7, maybe G8.

There is an outside chance that the agreement will come before a monetary crisis shows up in the markets. There are rumors that Alan Greensapn wants out but that for the time being he wants to guide the U.S. economy through the shoals of the present, albeit mild, recession. If something like what I think could happen were to actually occur, American political leaders would want to leverage the confidence the financial community and population-at-large has in Greenspan and graft to a new monetary order which carries his blessing. It would be the final act in an extraordinary career. Even gold advocates have something of a confidence level in Mr. Greenspan given his long sympathy for gold and what it represents in the monetary order.

Nobel Prize winning economist, Robert Mundell has made the case that in a two or three currency world (U.S., Japan, Europe) those currencies would eventually achieve reserve status with each central bank holding the other two currencies as reserves. Mundell, who probably understands the nature and role of gold better than any living economist, has theorized that these central banks would benefit enormously from a reserve unattached to (or statutorily detached from) the other two economies. In other words, gold will be used by the Big Three, the way it is used by the individual managing his or her own portfolio -- as an asset of last resort without contingent liability. If one of the other two countries exhibits poor decision making, the option is always available to lighten up on the currency being debased and acquiring either the remaining currency or additional gold. This will act as a deterrent to inflation and overly aggressive accession to the political sector in all three economies.

Not that long ago, Mundell advised an over-valued legal tender coin for circulation in Europe. The Europa would be issued at 100 euros. This is an attempt to pull the public into the mix and put additional pressure on the central bank to keep its policies honest, and when I say "honest", I mean not given to the polices of inflation that have bedevilled the West since the end of the First World War. Mundell allows for an overvalued legal tender gold coin in a regime where the currency is defended in a band. It is the last stitch that pulls the netting neatly together. (For details'see "Exchange Rates, Currency Areas and the International Financial Architecture" by Dr. Robert A. Mundell, Columbia University -- 1999 Nobel Laureate in our Gilded Opinion Section.) The purists may not like this approach, but it is a pragmatic and reasonable approach given the cards we've been dealt in this first decade of the 21st Century.

The problem with the gold standard is that it takes monetary policy out of the hands of the marketplace and puts it squarely in the hands of the politicians. Jack Kemp's convoluted version of gold's monetary role stands in marked contrast to that of Robert Mundell. Kemp believes gold should be undervalued at $325 an ounce. If the United States government were to make its 8000 tonne reserve available to the public at $325 an ounce, our entire reserve would be sitting in Paris, Tokyo and Frankfurt within the month. Though Mr. Kemp constantly refers to Nixon's closing of the gold window in 1971, I don't think he fully understands "why" Nixon did what he did -- interestingly enough. Once you undervalue gold in a gold-exchange standard regime, you had better be ready to defend it. When financial people see the kind of reasoning and decision making exhibited by most politicians when it comes to gold, it is not difficult to understand why the more prescient among us would like to find a way to keep the politicians as far from gold as they can possibly get them.

A good market-based system with gold over-valued will do that. Consider what this might mean to you as a gold owner? There is no way with the amount of dollars floating around the international economy that such a valuation could be at less than four figures, even as reserve asset in the Mundell model. Those who had the foresight to accumulate the yellow metal in the years previous to such a move would benefit greatly, but I doubt it would make them aggressive sellers.

It seems to me that U.S. policy makers have two choices both of which accrue greatly to the gold owners benefit. One, the system continues on as is and ends at some point in either a hyperinflationary blow-off (the Nightmare German Inflation model) or a stagflationary grinding roll into poverty (the Asian contagion model). In this case gold, will perform admirably as an insurance. Second, the system rolls into a new euro type financial architecture in order to stabilize the system now and take advantage of the dollar's current strength to ameliorate the transition problems. In this case, gold will be revalued substantially higher in order to keep any gold drain under wraps.

As for gold stocks in such a regime, it would behoove all countries to seek gold in order to bolster reserves and keep from having to upvalue gold as paper money/debt is created. The real question will come down to which of the remaining gold companies will survive the tsunami now devastating that industry (and well documented here) and be around to enjoy the benefits in either scenario. I will leave that to the gold stock experts most of whom have exhibited a poor track record thus far in discerning what was going on in the industry and what is most likely to happen next. Most of the better gold analysis hasn't come from the gold stock industry itself, but from hard metal advocates who stumbled into the arena because they couldn't figure out why gold wasn't reacting to the myriad of escalating economic ills that crop up all too regularly. But finding the nugget among all the pyrite is possible. It can be done. There will be survivors. The analysts are going to have to get off their duff, go and look at the properties, talk to the management, and generally find out how many mine company managers out there really understand what's going on with gold and the international economy. They will have to inform stockholders and the stockholders are going to have to turn annual meeting into guillotine sessions, but that will be the price of progress. Too many mine managers have gotten fat off the trough while running these companies into the ground. If you can't find a firm with an analyst like the one proposed, you might as well print up a list of gold mining companies, tack it to the wall, a throw darts.

Lastly, it's because we don't which way the rabbits going to jump that this gold forum will take on even more significance in the months to come. We invite you stay tuned for further developments.

I will repost the Gold Standard Update later today. Last call for anyone wanting to get in on this. . . . .

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

Angels for Hire

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My humble guess is a 50:50 chance,just because I don't know.Almost any on the planet don't give a Goldstandard any possibility,most point to its limitations (hey, I like things with limitations!).History just gives it still a damned good chance for a comeback.The round table is certainly aware of all the reasons,no need to go further into that.

FOA said there won't be any Goldstandard soon.Hmmm,I know only one thing:it certainly wouldn't be announced before the fact,it would be the best kept secret.Gold is legal today and ridiculous cheap'so you don't go out and tell the people "we guarantee you 30'000$'s per ounce of Gold soon"!

Hi MK!

Most excellent synopsis of "things!"

And I agree, we should keep governments as far away from pricing gold as possible - - - hopefully without using governments (untrustworthy as they've proven themselves to be in this area) to do that.

There's room for transactional gold, and that in itself will help keep the bankers and governments' feet to the fire.

High regards,
Journeyman

P.S. I was looking hard for at least _something_ to disagree with. Couldn't find a thing.

- Dear Sir, the system you describe is not a gold standard at all!
- Obviously, there is a strong political will, pulling us towards that system. Actually, this is what FOA tries to sell here, in return for warning us against a paper gold default. This comes very close to offering a bribe!
- Overvalued gold appears to be a major target for that political will. Obviously, this could help the physical gold holders, depending on the magnitude of the transaction tax on gold that FOA has hinted.
- Say the gold is overvalued by a factor of 2 and the central bank inflates the money supply at a rate of 5%, then, 14 years has to pass before gold becomes fairly valued.
- After the gold becomes overvalued, only zombies would channel their savings to gold. At that time, one should sell most of the gold and buy the stock market (which should have a very attractive yield, at least). However, marketing of overvalued gold to the crowd is to be expected, an event similar to the Nasdaq @ 5000 experience.
- The system described amplifies the business cycle, while, the classical gold standard would dampen it.
- I understand that you have just described the reality as you see it, without making any value judgements about what the "correct" system is.

Best Regards

http://markets.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3FCP9WSOC&live=true&useoverridetemplate=ZZZ6MJPM90C&tagid=IXLVJTFUICC⊂heading=emerging%20markets
Interesting;here we have a major gold and commodity producer that is being decimated by low prices and crushing foreign debt denominated in US$.In an apparent attempt to bring stability to their worthless fiat currency,they are preparing to take more poison in an attempt to cure their ailment.Would a higher gold price and falling US$ benefit the Brazilians?I think it probably would.C'mon Brazil'see the light'support your currency and your domestic economy,buy gold,leave the paper games to New York.They're the ones that always win that game.

USAGOLD,thanks so much for your insights into the monetary future.The puzzle we are all working on is so incrediblly intricated and inter-related that it often becomes overwhelming.I really appreciate the insights from your vantage point of many years experience and knowledge.

Great post, MK. Nice and lucid.
But....The gyrations, contortions, and general fear of implosion of the US credit/banking system, caused by the 'switch' to some form of gold backing, not to mention the FX markets would be so palpable to the Congress, that there is virtually no chance any President would have the political will to do it. Especially one who was elected by the slimmest margin. You would need a Ronald Reagan type, with an absolute majority, AFTER the collapse and a few years of hardship for the general population to eventually swallow it, both financially, and philosophically. It will not happen during the Bush era. Give it 1 or 2 more elections.
If the power grid collapse scenario plays out all the focus for the next years will be on power infrastructure rebuilding and attemps to 'rig' those markets to insulate the 'voter/rabble'. There is no political will to upset the applecart, besides the few 'cranks' who periodically raise their voice.

Don't go changin' ; )

(hint: "You fool me once, shame on you; you fool me twice, shame on me"I think the probability is absolute, stone-cold zero. Who would trust such a claim? What did Roosevelt do in 1933? What did Nixon do in 1971? Helllloooooooooo!!!!

The U.S. simply has NO CREDIBILITY here. None. Would anyone, much less any foreign government, really be foolish enough to believe it (again)???

BTW, this is my first post on this delightful forum. I have lurked for ages, and just now am feeling up to speed on these issues, after mucho hours of reading what is on-tap here (e.g., the Hall Of Fame). I salute everyone for what has to be the very best and brightest commentaries anywhere regarding gold and silver issues.

Go gold & silver ... true wealth, true truth.

http://www.GregPalast.com/Alert: British paper faces suit over Palast investigation
Friday, June 29, 2001

In retaliation for the investigative story about the finances of the George W. Bush campaign, Barrick Gold Mining of Canada has sued my paper, the Observer of London, for libel. The company, which hired the elder Bush after his leaving the White House, is charging the newspaper with libel for quoting an Amnesty International report, which alleged that 50 miners might have been buried alive in Tanzania by a company now owned by Barrick.
The company has also demanded the Observer and its parent, Guardian Newspapers, force me to remove the article from my US website, a frightening extension of Britain's punitive libel laws into the World Wide Web. The company has also issued legal threats against Tanzanian human rights lawyer Tundu Lissu, one of the Observer's independent sources and an investigator of the mine-site allegations.
The attack by Barrick and its controversial Chairman, Peter Munk, one of the wealthiest men in Canada, who boasts of his propensity to sue, also aims to gag my reporting on his company's purchase of rights to a gold mine in Nevada - containing $10 billion in gold - for a payment of under $10,000 to the US Treasury.
My Observer story, Best Democracy Money Can Buy, looked into the activities of several corporations linked to the Bushes. It was in that article I first disclosed that over 50,000 Florida voters, most of them Black, were wrongly tagged as �felons,� and targeted for removal from the voter rolls. My follow-up reports in Salon.com, The Nation, and the Washington Post as well as on BBC-TV's Newsnight provided the basis for the US Civil Rights Commission finding of massive, wrongful voter disenfranchisement in Florida.
My entire continuing investigation is in jeopardy. It is difficult to imagine how my paper, owned by the non-profit Scott Trust, myself and human rights lawyer Lissu can withstand the financial punishment of litigation by the centi-millionaire Munk and his corporation.
In its latest Annual report, Amnesty says it cannot verify the allegations of the mine killings because the government continues to resist an independent investigation. Yet Barrick wants our paper to state what we know to be untrue: that independent investigation found the charges completely baseless. Yet our quoting Amnesty is no defense. Americans cannot conceive of the medieval operation of British libel law. It does not permit the defense of "repetition" - straightforward reporting on the statements of human rights groups are banned, a gag nearly as effective as Burmese law.
Independently of Amnesty, attorney Lissu went to the mine site and provided our paper with witness statements. Tanzanians have offered their services to help defend against censorship in Britain, a poignant reversal for our paper which, with imperial pomp, has launched a �Press Freedom Campaign� to excoriate developing nations over gagging journalists.
�10 Little Piggies,� Adnan Khashoggi, and The Greatest Gold Heist Since Butch Cassidy
Peter Munk's reputation precedes him. Last year, Mother Jones named him one of America's �Ten Little Piggies� for his US gold mine's literally �poisoning the water� through what environmentalists consider polluting extraction practices.
How Barrick got the gold mine is something they would rather we not report.
First, Munk was set up in the gold business by funds from Saudi arms dealer Adnan Khashoggi. We are being sued for discussing this connection although the information comes from Peter Munk himself, quoted in his biography.
Second, Barrick struck it rich when the company used (or misused, say many) an old Gold Rush law to claim rights on a Nevada mine containing $10 billion in gold by paying the US Treasury less than $10,000. They are suing my paper for publicizing this extraordinary transaction, which US Interior Secretary of the Interior Bruce Babbitt called, "the biggest gold heist since the days of Butch Cassidy," and "a form of legalized extortion."
Barrick's suit claims the Observer libeled them by failing to state that Barrick had to spend money to buy other rights and equipment to dig the gold out of the ground. What an odd misreading of our words. We never said the US government mailed the gold bars to Barrick in Canada. We only said that Barrick got the gold mine and the public got the shaft.

The company's CEO has also demanded his lawyers slice a pound of our journalistic flesh for mentioning that he, "made his name in Canada in the 1960s as the figure in an infamous insider stock-trading scandal." Yet, we read this in the Canadian magazine Macleans: "The failure of [Clairetone Corporation] cost Munk his business and his reputation. Most damning were allegations of insider trading that were made after it was discovered that he and [his partner] had sold shares in 1967 just before some of Clairetone's most serious problems became known."
Lynching by Libel Law
The clear purpose of the suit is, as Barrick says, to force the Observer to say the investigation "should never have been published" � an inquiry into those who purchase the favor and influence of the Bush family, not just Barrick. The article was about the blizzard of money whirling around a family of Presidents and their associations. Among other paid favors for Barrick, the former President wrote the dictator Suharto to convince him, successfully, to grant another gold concession to Barrick.
And more than Barrick came into our investigative cross hairs. There was Chevron Corporation, and ChoicePoint, the firm at the center of the racially charged voter purge in Florida. This suit with malicious tone attempts to besmirch our entire investigation and to undermine ours and others further investigations into Bush and Barrick.
The Observer's official history quotes a media critic's statement that the papers new editor, "... is expected to continue the paper's tradition of crusading reporting as in the Lobbygate investigate investigation."
In that �Lobbygate� story, well known in the UK, I went undercover with my partner Antony Barnett to expose corruption at the heart of the Blair cabinet.
But the wrath of a Prime Minister is easy to dismiss - and our awards were a pleasant salve. The withering, costly pounding of an enraged corporate power with too much money to spend has chilled reporters� and British newspapers� will to take on the tougher investigative matters. Amnesty is, "silent on the advice of lawyers." And so, the witness statements of those who watched the bodies exhumed, and one who dug his way from the mass grave, will now also remain entombed in legal silence.
How much longer I can hold the line if abandoned by the Guardian's Scott Trust - which is cracking under the weight of legal bills - I cannot say. And the consequences of capitulation to our source and defender, Tundu Lissu and his Tanzanian human rights organization, we cannot imagine.

A hearty welcome to you, JCF!

http://washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A27611-2001Jul6.html

[snip]
Hope for a summer rally in the stock market fizzled out this morning after the nation's unemployment rate jumped back up and a new chorus of companies warned that their earnings are continuing to fall.
[snip]

http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-perl/bbs.pl?read=157736
Now,let me get this straight;we,as acquirers,change our mind about the deal and you owe us $80 million.That's not the way the script is usually written in take-over dramas ,is it?

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Latest%20Columns&touch=1&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_bbco&T=markets_fgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_bbco&bt=blk&s=AO0XTXRUPVGhlIEV1
I've read a lot of this writer's thoughts on bonds and currency values over the years and one theme that is overriding,is the man's unassailable position on the Fed's wisdom.

Of course,at the present juncture,the ECB is playing the clown role by trying to maintain the stability of the euro's value through prudent policy in the face of growing inflation.Meanwhile,we all know what the Fed is up to;cutting,printing and repoing.

Tell me,Mr.Pesek,what is the Fed's long term track record'say'since their inception,of maintaining the dollar as a store of value?

People in glass houses...

Thanks to yogibearbull for the link.

http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Nonfarm payroll employment fell by 114,000 in June, and the unemployment rate was little changed, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Manufacturing experienced another large job loss, and wholesale trade employment declined for the third consecutive month. Other major industry groups showed no significant change in employment over the month.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

Both the unemployment rate (4.5 percent) and the number of unemployed persons (6.4 million) were little changed in June. In each of the past 3 months, the jobless rate has been either 4.4 or 4.5 percent; its most recent low was 3.9 percent in October 2000. The rates for all the major worker groups�adult men (4.0 percent), adult women (3.8 percent), teenagers (14.3 percent), whites (4.0 percent), blacks (8.4 percent), and Hispanics (6.6 percent)--showed little or no change over the month.



Black Blade: Unemployment figures are beginning to look horrific and prospects are absolutely dismal. Also consider that savings rates are negative and consumer spending is falling off and is mostly on credit anyway. OUCH! We are definitely headed for "Interesting Times." I would say those of us here are at the very least better prepared with a stash of PMs and possibly more tucked away. These are not signs of a healthy economy!

BTW, Stock Market took a hit today, I wonder haw much it will rebound in the last hour as institutional and government sponsered organizations try to moderate the damage. Petroleum! - yes, oil and natural gas are higher as EIA data suggests that all is well, yet buried in the data are some scary thoughts that are likely to bubble to the surface in the next few months. I might try to address some of these things later, however, I am going to slip into Yellowstone NP for the weekend and do some fishing, and visit family. I may have a phone link there. Meanwhile, think gold as all is not as cheerful as the "Pied Pipers" on CNBC suggest. "Interseting Times" indeed! Cheers!

Gold - Cheap Insurance - Proven Protection!

http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/buy.htmlI mentioned last week that the Eurosystem (the European Central Banks and its 12 member national CBs) would be marking its reserves to market values at the end of the quarter, June 29th. That has been done, and I've now taken a moment to review the results.

Over the course of the week, there was a selloff of 2.3 billion euros� worth of its foreign currency, however, the net position of the Eurosystem in foreign currency increased 6.6 billion due to the quarterly revaluation to 273.5 billion euros. Outside of the spirit of international cooperation, it isn't difficult to imagine more of this foreign paper being returned from whence it originated. Credit paper is no match for gold. Keep reading.

Gold was the big performer over the quarter in this mark-to-market process. Though it makes up only one third of the Eurosystem reserves (vs two-thirds currently held in foreign currency), the gold value climbed by nearly 10.1 billion euros, eclipsing the 6.6 billion performance of the twice-as-large block of foreign currency.

As a result, the book value of the Eurosystem gold and gold receivable assets now stands at 128.512 billion euros.

The 10.068 billion euro gold value increase dwarfs the scope of recent Washington Agreement sales by the Dutch central bank. Two weeks ago, they sold one tonne, thereby causing a 0.01 billion euro reduction to the Eurosystem gold holdings. And again last week, yet another single tonne was sold. Having mobilized 100 tonnes within the first six months of the September 1999 Washington Agreement, the Dutch cb still has 200 tonnes to go.

Thanks to gold's higher value for this new quarter (up over 10 billion euros), you can see how the Eurosystem could actually part with 1,000 tonnes and yet have a book value that remains even with the previous quarter. We all know that such a sale is not going to happen.

We can also see how this euro-system reserve model will allow for a rising gold value to act as adequate compensation for any future failings of value among the virtually unmarketable vast quantities of foreign paper reserves. The Eurosystem is not in competition with a rising gold price -- the Eurosystem is BUILT upon it -- so that it may be more vibrant than the dollar system as a result.

By exchanging some of your paper assets to physical gold, you, too, can walk in these "footsteps of giants".

Meanwhile in America, while we see the Eurosystem dumping 2.3 billion in foreign paper holdings, and gold valuations properly increasing, our own gold reserves remained valued at $42.22 per ounce, and the Fed yesterday added $4.25 billion to our banking system's reserves via 7-day repurchase agreements, and also permanently added $471 million through the outright purchase of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities. Today, the Fed tacked on another $2 billion with over-the-weekend repos.

CNBC just added up the Market Cap losses on just five stocks! On those five it amounted to $53,000,000,000.

Boy am I glad I own GOLD,,,,really!!!!

G.T

Here is some news about a Rothchild baby, Eldorado Gold. This is a VERY interesting development. Do they know something?

"The Company has reduced its credit position with Rothschilds from US$35.0 million on December 31, 1998 to US$16.2 million on June 30, 2001. In addition, as of July 2, 2001, the Company closed out its gold hedging contracts maturing after December 31, 2001 and all Brazilian Real hedging contracts. The funds from the Hedge Contracts will be applied as prepayment of the ARCA reducing the Company's debt by a further US$1.2 million prior to year end. US$400,000 of the hedge liquidation will be available to the Company for working capital.

``To pursue the Company's goal of maximizing shareholder value, Eldorado's Board of Directors has resolved to seek a Corporate Transaction that may include, among other things, equity financing, asset sales and/or a merger with another entity. I am confident that the underlying value of our gold reserves and resources will form a secure base for sustaining our shareholders' interests,'' said Mr. Wright."

Hmmmmmmmmm.............lots to ponder.
BTW,I own NONE of this co. but do have an inside connection.

If Stock Market indexes had labeling regulations, there would be an insert that said----

"The above numbers represent prices that a very small percentage of stock-holders MAY be able to obtain if they sell at this moment!"

There is no (spoon) wealth-factor, only fluctuating price stickers.

FLASH: There is a shortage of U.S. dollars in the world economy!!!
(richard640)Jul 06, 16:59

The FED has to pump out more dollars--Larry Kudlow just said that on CNBC.

(Dow Jones) Rally into next week for silver is likely, says J.P. Morgan. Will hold at $4.20 and rally to $4.40/$4.49, it says.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Volatility is back, I believe we've seen the bottom. Things are getting very interesting with a number of potential scenarios going down including a Sth American bond default possible - Netking.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Peter A. - Re: Dr Richards currency post, I guess it depends on the fuzzy logic of the currency creators, gives a whole new meaning to "the shorts".

Silver rally? Thanks for anything and everything pertaining to Solomon's "poor man's gold".
Does J.P. morgan give any rational for their rally prediction? I place more faith in fundamental analysis than technical forcasts but am interested in every opinion and idea. People like Butler, Morgan, Cook and Mcalvany have me convinced that it's just a matter of time, much like gold, but with a more limited or constricted time frame given the inelastic industrial demand for silver.
I'm attempting to position myself with both physical silver and long term options. Sharfin lists options as far out as July 2003 and someone next door mentioned today that large silver coins with the old buffalo nickel design are now available. They're only 90% silver but I always liked that design along with the liberty standing quarters (like the current silver eagles).
When funds allow, I'll ask CPM about the buffalo design coins and with two years time on an option, I be able to catch the paper profit move. I don't even want to think about POS at $4.25 two years from now. Just one poor man's opinion here, not investment advice.
Any more silver info??
CPM, do you have silver buffalos for sale??
Happy weekend!
Rich

When will they ever learn, when will they ever learn?

Mr. Powell...get you some of those Buffalos from MK and if he aint got em... direct from the mint....theys bound to be buutiful to de eye an de hand.

If JP Morgan is at all correct...it is only a Bull trap....a 20cent run and then whammo....the shorts jump in again.

This is the paper market....it is dictated by high levels of cash liquidity...and hides the very low levels of silver liquidity.

Your options are risky for two reasons...

1. the time/price uncertainty of their future value.

2. the chances that after the coming dislocation in pricing, that you can have them honored into a contract.

Due to silver's emergence in the last 100 years as Mr. Electric Metal (par excellence - exceeded only by Gold) we have seriously depleted the above ground stocks of silver such that one can actually say that "silver is more rare than gold". Now, we are busy electrificating the entire developing world with lots of new technology involving silver. And most of that silver will have to be recovered out of subduction regions....there is plenty to get to...and in due time we will get it....but for a while...

Also, some at this forum think that gold can take off like a rocket (as it moves to support trade settlement in the open again - free gold) but that silver will equilibrate at something a little above its cost of production.

This is absurd....if there is free gold, there will be free silver. Once the masses understand gold they will understand silver.....and once again I point out that as gold skyrockets it become virtually unaffordable to Joe Public, while silver becomes almost a gold replacement to the little guy who is trying to find a way to "save" $100 a month.

The other thing to remember is this....today's large scale silver users have grown soft....when silver first starts to move they will "dig into their own little just in time reserves" to avoid paying higher prices....but then they will realize, its buy now or pay more later. That's when the fight to have physical will really begin. Warren Buffet is then going to be like the big ape sitting on the big box of bananas...watching all the monkeys hopping around.

Get your own bananas now while they last.

Poor old Solomon

When I finally write the great American financial novel, Larry Kudlow will have a prominent role in those chapters describing the peoples' bubblevision personalities.
IMHO, he needs only add some enthusiasm, interesting facial contortions and a show of conviction to accompany his words. Who in Hollywood could possibly be cast to play his part?
A while ago, he was calling for a higher POG but he gave the impression that it was something that could be adjusted like the Fed. raises and lowers their lending rate. Forbes also wanted the POG adjusted higher. Let's just declare that one ounce of gold = $350 Monday morning.
Perhaps lets just wish for a free market!
Rich

Sir, you suggest a slight alteration in my statement making it possible for you to agree with my statement: - "Gold is durable. Fiat currency lacks durability! War is not peace. Currency is not money. Who changed the definition of money?"

Your alteration of my statement: - "Gold is durable. Fiat currency lacks durability! War is not peace. Currency is not WEALTH."

Then you ask me: "Who formed your definition of money?"

_____________________________________________________________

I will answer but ask that you offer a clear definition of money as opposed to currency. Also, Who formed your definition of currency?

Perhaps I should first give my definition of money:

Money is wealth by virtue of its intrinsic value.

When money is used as a medium of exchange it is also currency yet has not lost its intrinsic value and therefore is still money. According to my definition anything that lacks intrinsic value cannot be considered money. The amount of wealth stored in money is determined by the amount of intrinsic value contained therein. This is self-evident. Gold has been and can again become currency without ceasing to be wealth.

You are correct when you say, "currency is not wealth," if when you say "currency", you mean "fiat currency". Fiat currency is not wealth because it has no worth (intrinsic value). The problem lies in that currency is only a substitute for money. It is not the real thing. If one is deprived of the real thing then one will use a substitute, especially if one is either tricked or coerced into doing so, but that does not change the fact that the substitute is not the real thing; hence given the opportunity, those who have been either tricked or coerced into using a substitute will switch to the real thing in short order.

Substitutes are by nature always temporary so long as there remains the possibility that the real thing can be obtained. All things, which have intrinsic value, are composed of elements, which were created by something other than man. In all of recorded history man has not been able to show himself able to create anything of intrinsic value.

The closest man has ever come to being god-like is in that he can create fiat, but we are not playing horseshoes here. Close does not get it. Man has been able to create only one thing, fiat, and since fiat has no real, no intrinsic value, man has proven himself to be a very poor god indeed.

Along these same lines we find that man not only cannot create anything of value but that man also cannot destroy anything of value. Man cannot destroy intrinsic value. That is why we often hear, without argument, that all of the gold, which has been discovered in this world since history began, is still in existence.

Sir Randy, my contention that fiat currency is not money rests upon the simple foundation that money is not money if it has no worth and anything, which has zero intrinsic value, is worthless; ergo, it is not money. Without a doubt the US dollar has no intrinsic value and therefore while being used as currency (a money substitute) it is not and will never be money, coercive power to the contrary.

May I add that I think that you and most who post and lurk here are in agreement but semantics often make it appear that we differ.

Only me

KS

Ps: I almost forgot. My definition of money is my own but has been formed by 31 years of reading about money and economics. The simple writers have pierced my thinking most. Harry Browne's writings influenced my thinking in the early eighties. Also I should mention Thomas Jefferson, John Adams, Adam Smith (the real one), Milton Friedman, Another, ORO, Aristotle, and a young man who used to go by the handle of TownCrier (grin). Of course I have left out a good many writers on the forum who have also influenced me.

clink, clink, clink, clink, clink, clink

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Greenspan.htmlI'm currently short on time, so let me leave you with this comment from MK and join him in welcoming aboard our new editor for the G.O.
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USAGOLD's Gilded Opinion has always attracted gold investors and advocates looking for a deeper understanding of what affects the gold market and the economy. Now we have an editor with the depth and breadth of interest to take our editorial page to an even higher, more profound level. I think we will all benefit from his presence. Since he wishes to remain anonymous, his commentary and background will be signed "Editor, The Gilded Opinion." Correspondence can be forwarded through the sitemaster@usagold.com

Thank you and regards, MK
--------

Solomon, yes, of course, options are probably the riskiest investment available. They are the total antithesis to holding physical metal in hand so, I'll purchase both.
Richard 640 from another forum once compared options ownership to playing the big casino. I agree. The "time/price uncertainty of their future value" is exactly that which, combined with enormous leverage, gives them the potential for outrageous gains.
If there is a great spike upward in the POS and if it is indeed caused by a lack of product severe enough to cause market default, then, as you suggest, the option may not be honored into a futures contract. I think this will be avoided by price rationing and the surfacing of unreported supplies of silver (but only at much higher prices and then still not enough). However, and this is important to my motives, I will be happy to settle any option for a fiat profit. Indeed, this is exactly what is intended, profit to pay debt and live more comfortably.
If the fundamental information proves correct and leads to a much higher POS, then the profit from the options will allow me to keep my eagles and buffalos for the rest of my time and then pass them on to my family who may or may not hold them as dearly as I. That will then no longer concern this old concrete finisher.
Go silver, and take gold with you!
Rich

Welcome!

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/A snipet from Bill Muurphy's Midas from the LeMetropole Cafe.
A free trial is available at the link above for any that are not already cafe members.

$hifty
--------------------------------------------------------

The James Joyce Table

Gold, Commodities, Midas du Metropole

Topic du Jour


Today's stock market breakdown brings us that much closer when the lies of the U.S. Government and the bullion banks are exposed. As they are exposed, there will be no stopping gold in its journey to outer space.

Bob Connelly brings up an interesting point:

I believe you have mentioned the size of the total derivative exposure of the banks of the world to be approximately 100 trillion dollars. I don't think most people have any feel for what kind of $ that represents, I like to represent it in some tangible way. A single dollar bill is .004" thick, and the moon is 238,000 miles from the earth. A pile containing 3.77 trillion dollar bills (stacked - not end-to-end) would reach from the earth to the moon. Therefore the 100 trillion is approximately 26.5 piles of dollars that reach to the moon, quite a lot of leverage! Also I believe Chase/Morgan bank itself has an exposure greater than 20 trillion - that's more than 5 piles - for 1 bank!! Where do the banks get all of this "betting" money anyway?

Hello again. You mentioned concerning silver, "This is the paper market..it is dictated by high levels of cash liquidity.. and hides the very low levels of silver liquidity."
Most silver advocates are speculating that the ongoing deficits of the supply/demand equation will use up the last of the above ground supply in the near future. What no one seems to be able to figure out is, of course, exactly when.
Also, will the POS remain unrealistically low until an actual default occurs? This is unheard of as price rationing always starts long before such events occur. Small fluxuations in the supply/demand equation should be reflected in prices and the lower total available supply should also move prices.
What is your opinion on how much surplus or above ground supply of silver exists? Also, assuming (although I don't think this can happen) silver actually remains cheap until there simply isn't enough to fill existing orders (demand), how long until, as someone said a few weeks ago, a clerk counting silver for an order will say, "That's all, folks".?
Perhaps a simple industrial commodity shortage in silver will be our 5th horseman. I agree with you in thinking that silver is still a monetary metal and that higher POS will not long be tolerated without a similar rise in POG. What's are your thoughts on this time frame??
Thanks for any thoughts that I'll catch up on in the morning.
Rich

Welcome Aboard
Superb train of logic in laying out your viewpoint.

Brought to mind a quote from a Robert Heinlein book; "Whatever happens when they capture you, don't let them give you to the women!"

I look forward to discussing something we disagree on.

Thankyou, Randy, for the introduction, and thank you, R. Powell for the welcome.

The Gilded Opinion is a great place to find in-depth analysis of issues which revolve around money and gold. Guest contributors there are people who have a lot to say on these subjects dear to us all. Yet their opinions are not normally available to us on an ongoing basis.

In short, the Gilded Opinion has, since inception, offered "quality". What we now want to bring you is more "quantity". With that in mind, we will be on the lookout for as much truly outstanding material as we can find. In fact, anyone knowing of a work meriting consideration for our page ought to speak up! We can always use your input.

Thanks to all and have a nice weekend!

Solomon, yes, of course, options are probably the riskiest investment available. They are the total antithesis to holding physical metal in hand so, I'll purchase both....
The "time/price uncertainty of their future value" is exactly that which, combined with enormous leverage, gives them the potential for outrageous gains.
--------
Yes my kind Richard....half of getting rich is capital gain...the other is capital preservation...good luck on your options and your eggs.

Regarding timing...it would be quite unfair and unwise to predict timing...especially since timing seems to be what has stumped gold and silver bugs these last years.

I am mostly a fairly agressive investor (younger than my handle would assume). Most of my money goes to stock situations. I don't look for consistent return...I look for value and am patient....my guideline is very simple...look for something that can double in three years...if it doubles (which may come sooner than 3 years) I only hold it if I would be once again convinced it can double in three years. Although gold and silver are my "preservation" assets (i.e. they can never loose all of their value), I would buy additional silver today on my three year horizon....i.e. I declare to you that "I believe" silver will double within 3 years...the harder point is to make the sell or hold decision when it doubles. This strategy has made me forgo some profits in cases which I "sold too soon" and has made me hold a few dogs to the bitter dead end...but by and large I have made good calls.

Although I believe the Another Scenario has legs (but will play out over longer time than any "trader" can really make use of. I am not convinced gold could go to > $500 in three years, so my reasons for having some gold is to be in the door long before the party starts - because I would never buy gold based on my analysis....meaning I believe there will never be a time when it is possible to say that gold will double in value in 3 years (outside of local currency situations).

Regarding how much "above the ground silver there is". I don't really care. I believe that the Big Silver Paper Tigers will throw paper liquidity at the market until the bitter end.

What can happen in a short squeeze??? I once had a stock I got at $9 and the company got bought at $15....so, my broker suggested getting out, which I did....then the shares rose to $19!!! What happened....there was so much short position, that they had to go buy them above the market.....now in the stock market rules are rules....I have never been convinced since then of the ability of the market to discount......the dramatic situation in silver is simply not discounted for. The proof is that Warren Buffet saw the situation almost 4 years ago...and I believe even he is surprised to wait...but he is also patient.

Based on the large lease obligation which TB estimates at close to 1 billion oz, I believe that silver will move fast and furious when it does (5 fold within 18 months). But most silver users and most small guys will not believe there is a bull until silver sustains many many months. Investors were happy to pay $100s of dollars for stocks that should have traded at $30. So could they pay $100s per ounce for silver which should be at about $25???

And the long term outlook (10 years) for silver is strong for two primary reasons:

1. The worldwide silver production and demand equation has had decades of physical inventory depletion, old habits will no longer work. Silver reserves are needed for a reason...and the new habits must rebuild them. This will require an approximate doubling of silver production from today's levels.

2. We develop uses for silver faster than for copper, zinc, lead etc. Also, in a slowdown, larger infrastructure is slowed while I believe that the desire to have modern devices of all kinds goes flat at the worst.

Notice, I didn't even mention the possibility that "investment demands of the poor man" may come to bear.

I think the great character for this chapter in your novel is going to be teddy bear tycoon Warren Buffet. He will be compared to the Hunts..but will be seen once again as a folk hero. The Hunt's used leverage to corner about 5-10% of known physical.....Buffet is going to be sitting on 20% or more and will be paid up....you can already see his smiling face on Fortune magazine sitting on a pallette of silver bars.

And then of course, the fact that Buffet gave his nice young friend Bill Gates at tip. Gates just recently scooped up another 5% of Pan American Silver.

And for those who need more serious media coverage...imagine how Forbes, WSJ, Fortune, and maybe even Time Magazine will handle the fact that copper and zinc producers are facing bankruptcy because they forward sold silver.

The story with silver is so different than gold...gold is mysterious and cloudy...filling the histories of the great dynasties.....silver is the story of the Roman Soldier, the Saloon Cowboy, the Chinese peasant, the Indian Village Bride..it is going to make great press again, and the stories will be interesting. People will listen and will again treasure their silver heirlooms and want them again as luxuries.

But this is only a small part of life....a little corner....much more stories will be written about the next movie star, or the developments in genetic engineering.

Poor old Solomon

Karen Sue says, "According to my definition anything that lacks intrinsic value cannot be considered money. The amount of wealth stored in money is determined by the amount of intrinsic value contained therein. This is self-evident."

True, in terms of infinity. What about in terms of the immediate moment? As long as currency is accepted in exchange for goods and services it fits the dictionary definition of money, that being "A medium of exchange." The absence of intrinsic value is due to the unpredictability of the moment immediately following. Therefore, could we not then say that currency stores "subjective value"?

Hey! That was a really great post, dude!!! I'm hearin' ya , brother. What a strange little metal, huh? I sometimes wonder if silver had more to do with man's monetary history than gold? Just wondering.

http://cbc.ca/cgi-bin/templates/view.cgi?/news/2001/07/05/can_rus_oil010705
Snippit:

MOSCOW - A Canadian oil company operating in Russia says it has been the victim of a hostile takeover � at the business end of a machine gun. The Russian government has a good incentive to do something about what happened to Norex. "This does a lot of damage to that message that this is a safe place to invest." Norex might be a small player in the Russian oil industry, but Rush says letting it get robbed at gunpoint � with a court's backing � will do a lot of damage to President Vladimir Putin's attempts to clean up the country's gangster-style capitalism.

Black Blade: Nothing new here. These people did not do their homework and learn vicariously from other companies in the former Soviet Union. It is right out of the Pan American Silver - Dukat play book. Any corporation that tries to work in natural resources in the former Soviet Union is either stupid, got big cajones, or is in bed with the local organized crime factions. We've seen this play out time and again. Hell, I remember when old Pegasus Gold got reamed in Russia.

BTW, I write this from Lake Village in Yellowstone NP. Going fishing in the morning for "Golden Cutthroat." Cheers!

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010706/bs/markets_oil_dc_15.html
Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices edged higher on Friday as the prospect of rising demand and short-covering ahead of the weekend outweighed any downward pressure from the expected resumption of Iraqi exports. Secretary-General Ali Rodriguez said on Friday a resumption of Iraqi oil exports following the U.N. extension of the oil-for-food deal was unlikely to affect current oil prices. He also reiterated the cartel would aim to keep oil markets stable by adjusting oil production.

Black Blade: Ali cuts to the chase doesn't he? He makes no bones about OPEC's determination to keep the price of oil in a range around $25.00/bbl. I heard some "Pied Pipers" on CNBC (one was Larry Kudlow) this afternoon say that oil prices were headed to $18.00/bbl. I wouldn't count on it as OPEC has found itself a lot of discipline lately and has resisted cheating on quotas. If anything, $45.00/bbl oil before $18.00/bbl (if ever). The economy will just have to adjust.

Gold - Cheap Insurance - Proven Protection!

R Powell(57610) & Solomon Weaver(57611).
Replies to your posts:

Rich./Solomon, It's amazing isn't it that when we speak of a potential rally in a precious metal at (or close to) a 5,000 year inflation adjusted low price(depending on this weeks M1,M2& M3 count!) that we immediately think in terms of "entrapment" for the longs who might be "naive enough" to buy into that rally! Such has been the mental conditioning & price manipulation and control through leasing & short selling for over a decade or two. This same PM has had 11 straight years of defecit, that is annual useage exceeding what's mined from the ground, each year the market is having to find new silver supplies from leasing(primarily)as well as fleecing strategic reserves in times past. Mine production is steadily increasing BUT demand appears to be growing & increasing at twice the annual increase in new supply.

On this topic the conservative CPM say:
"(quote)CPM Group expects silver prices to rise at some point, even as mine production is projected to rise over the next few years. Mine production could rise another 100 million ounces over the next few years, which would represent an expansion of historical proportions. Even if it did, the increase in and of itself would not be sufficient to close the gap between new supply and demand.(end)"

Wow, even an expansion in new mined silver of historical proportions, according to CPM would NOT be sufficient to close the gap between demand & supply.

Folks we are steering in the face of an event where the artificial dislocation of the laws of demand and supply WILL cause a reallignment in the price of silver in historical proportions, yes of historical proportions. The pricing action of the last week does nothing but further reinforce for me what is ahead, and it gives the prudent amongst as a further brief window for accumulation of the metal at "give away" prices.

What's ahead friends? . . . I really do not know exactly how the future will pan out. Based on what I do know though soon or sooner there will be a "nuclear meltdown" in silver. As a kid when I was on a scout camp once many years ago I threw a can of beans on the hot embers of an open fire to heat the can(without making air holes!) the can grew, grew & grew in size until. . . well, the explosion! Silver is the same, it cannot and will not continue as it has been, and it has not continued except through manipulation of the fundamental laws of demand and supply, except now physical silver is all but running out, the PPT are cornered, and have nowhere to go except a "strategic withdrawl" to a higher price to "try to bring out more inventory" ha ha! This didn't work to a great extent in 1980 despite $50+/Oz and it won't work this time around(IMO).

Conservative CPM have suggested a silver price of $8.00/Oz by this years end, other reports (also conservative) have suggested $9.25. . . . "should" this play out by Dec 31, then we will still say in the words of BTO's song; "Baby, you aint seen n n n nothing yet!. . ."
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Specific Points:

Solomon posted: "The other thing to remember is this....today's large scale silver users have grown soft....when silver first starts to move they will "dig into their own little just in time reserves" to avoid paying higher prices....but then they will realize, its buy now or pay more later. That's when the fight to have physical will really begin. Warren Buffet is then going to be like the big ape sitting on the big box of bananas...watching all the monkeys hopping around.

Netking >>> I would suggest things may move faster than that. Increased demand is currently outstripping increased supply by 2:1 from what I can gather on D & S stats. Warrens holding was not FULLY delivered in physical form(IMO) & he has leased out much it what was delivered anyway (IMO) without the need to write this out from BH's books. He'll be laughing all the way to the bank folks, when they can't replace what he's earning a good income from leasing. . . . he'll probably take a nice $25.00/Oz in cash or what ever his lawyers put in the lease agreement.
------------------------------------------------------------Solomon posted: Also, some at this forum think that gold can take off like a rocket (as it moves to support trade settlement in the open again - free gold) but that silver will equilibrate at something a little above its cost of production.This is absurd....if there is free gold, there will be free silver. Once the masses understand gold they will understand silver.....and once again I point out that as gold skyrockets it become virtually unaffordable to Joe Public, while silver becomes almost a gold replacement to the little guy who is trying to find a way to "save" $100 a month.

Netking >>> Totally agree with you here Sol. ORO(I have challenged him on this twice, still waiting for a reply) & others who might believe that silver is in some kind of vacum are 100% wrong & their thinking is akin to the PPT in regards to silvers future. Silver is a much smaller market, it would take a very small amount of money to buy the worlds remaining supply of above ground Ag. Silver is found in the ground at 10:1 over gold, the POG:POS ratio will change to reflect this after the POS breaks free from manipulation, but for a time may go higher, much higher, prehaps close to the POG briefly, such has been the dislocation of the demand & supply fundamentals. The price must change to reflect the above ground situation, most of the silver mined over the last 5,000 years is GONE, for ever, the gold is still here yes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Solomon - This is the paper market....it is dictated by high levels of cash liquidity...and hides the very low levels of silver liquidity. Your options are risky for two reasons...
1. the time/price uncertainty of their future value.
2. the chances that after the coming dislocation in pricing, that you can have them honored into a contract.

Netking >>> If there is a repeat of history (as a trader I see history/cycles repeat) Comex may withdraw/suspend new long silver contracts briefly(?) again, however they'll be under much more scrunity & disclosure than they were last time. Rich's (and my) silver call options may have to be settled for cash in some scenarios, sure, but I don't think you'll see him or me cry over this. Concerning your point 1. it's a risk & reward trade off, as in any trade or endeavour yes. JP Morgan Sees Silver Rally might be wrong for next week, but either way, silver has a glorious future ahead. Thanks for reading - regards Murray.

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?uThe last tally on the World's stock markets look quite GRIM. There's a lot of red as we head into the weekend. It appears as there could be a lot more bad news on the corporate earnings front. Next week could continue to get ugly. Meanwhile gold is quite cheap and looks better as the markets go under for the third time.View Yesterday's Discussion.

Netking says:
Silver is found in the ground at 10:1 over gold, the POG:POS ratio will change to reflect this after the POS breaks free from manipulation, but for a time may go higher, much higher, prehaps close to the POG briefly, such has been the dislocation of the demand & supply fundamentals.
----------
Sir Netking....we are very much of like mind. I would be quite satisfied to see silver come to 1:3 or 1:4 of gold.

But here is a little point to consider:

The FED is allowing the M3 to expand by about $30 billion a week right now. The entire estimated silver loan is about $5 billion. The paper price of silver (which is proxy for physical still) is determined by large interests which have immense liquidity at their hands.....silver would not be allowed to be the 5th horseman.

Silver is like the canary in the coalmine....the great gold paper market could not live with a serious silver dislocation.

I am also extremely bullish on silver the metal....but believe the silver bear (paper) still has a lot of blood in the veins.

By the way....I am thinking that old Warren still has about 60 million oz just sitting quietly. He will also prefer stock swaps over cash settlement.

Poor old Solomon

http://www.msnbc.com/news/596579.asp
Second-quarter drop in profits expected to be the worst in a decade

Snippit:

No one has officially called the current economic climate a recession � yet. But when companies begin reporting second quarter profits over the next few weeks, that official designation may no longer matter much. Analysts who track corporate earnings are forecasting the biggest year-over-year profit decline in a decade.

The flip side of the profit pain of energy-consuming companies is energy producers. Energy companies are expected to post profit gains of 16 percent of the quarter; analysts are forecasting a gain of 10 percent for utilities. "IT�S DEFINITELY going to be gruesome," said Joseph Kalinowksi, a market analyst at First Call/Thomson Financial, which calculates that second quarter profits for companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 index will be 17.3 percent lower than a year ago. "That would be the first time we've had double-digit declines without a true recession" as defined by two consecutive quarters of declining gross domestic product, he said.

Black Blade: Expect it to be much worse than the "Pied Pipers" let on. Lot be fooled - we are already in a recession and the reason many don't know is that the numbers are massaged to give a better picture. Declining earnings quarter over quarter. And all this even after analysts lowered the bar by lowering earnings estimates so that companies could more easily meet or exceed the lower estimates. Guess what? They can't even make these numbers.

Gold - Cheap Insurance - Proven Protection!

Good comment Sir Solomon (57629)

There will also come(IMHO) a parting of the ways between the perpetual paper driven physical market & the Comex pricing systems. I believe there must!. . . when short positions equate to say two years annual mined production & where there is not a prayer of these contracts being met in fundamental physical delivery of the metal terms(not to mention the leasing time bomb!). . . this aberation will. . . . cause a violent physical pricing market reaction at a certain point, soon.

This will be pure unrestrained market power, there is little that can be done to stop this, for a time. We will be watching the Comex inventory levels in the days ahead and also traders commitments, with particular interest of course with the commercials actions/intentions. regards Murray

http://www.gregpalast.com/detail.cfm?artid=15&row=1
http://www.gregpalast.com/detail.cfm?artid=15&row=1
VanRip (7/6/01; 11:37:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 57598)
Barrick Bites, Too



This would be the same Mr. Munk and Mr. Bush(s) (Sr. and Jr.) that we read so many other wonderful things about. Not to get in any debates with State-aholics.

"...If we look in the shadows behind Munk we can see the more accomplished player who provided the capital to set up Barrick - Saudi arms dealer Adnan Khashoggi.

"During Bush's presidency, Khashoggi was identified as conduit in the Iran-Contra conspiracy. He had already run into trouble with US lawmen when, in 1986, he was arrested and charged - but not convicted - of fraud. He was bailed out of the New York prison by Munk, who provided the $4m bond. Bush performed an even bigger favour for Khashoggi: as his last act in office, the president pardoned Khashoggi's alleged co-conspirators, key members of Bush's own cabinet. As a result, no case could be made against Khashoggi.

"In 1996, a geologist prospecting in Indonesia, Mike de Guzman, announced his discovery of the world's richest gold field. Munk rapidly deployed his president. Bush, on behalf of Barrick, contacted officials of the former dictator Suharto who were in control of mining concessions. Thereafter, De Guzman's company was told it would have to turn over 68 per cent of its claim to Barrick.

"Barrick didn't have long to gloat. Jim-Bob Moffett, the tough, old, Louisiana swamp dog who heads Freeport-McMoRan Mining, had a private meeting with his old benefactor Suharto. At the end of the meeting, Jim-Bob and the dictator stood on the steps of the presidential palace to announce that Freeport-McMoRan would replace Barrick. (Ironically, Barrick lucked it again. The gold find was a hoax. After Jim-Bob learnt he'd been suckered, his company invited geologist De Guzman to talk it over. Sadly, on way to the meeting, De Guzman fell out of a helicopter.)

"While Mr Munk's president did not pay the cost of his rental in Indonesia, Bush could redeem himself in Africa. In 1996, as genocide in Rwanda fomented civil war in Zaire, Barrick smelt opportunity. We have learnt that, at that time, Bush spoke with his old golfing buddy, Mobutu Sese Seko (then dictator of Zaire) about diamond concessions.

"I don't know what ex-CIA director Bush told the panicked dictator, but we do know that Mobutu granted Barrick exclusive rights to mine diamonds in north-west Zaire.

"Maybe Bush talked about Barrick's mining experience in neighbouring Tanzania where, according to Amnesty International, Barrick's subsidiary carried out 'extra-judicial killings'. Amnesty reports that 50 independent miners who refused to move off the Barrick unit's concession were buried alive in the pits by company bulldozers. Barrick denies the allegations."

From your 57604:

"As a result, the book value of the Eurosystem gold and gold receivable assets now stands at 128.512 billion euros."

Questions:

1) The ECB 'marks to market' gold reserves quarterly, yes?

2) Is this information common public knowledge? ie: "ECBgoldreserves.com"

3) Is there any other CB on the planet that does this?

4) Does the ECB perform a regular(physical) audit?

5) What tonnage(gold) is 128.512 billion euros?

6) Is the increase a i)increase in tonnage ii)reflection of lower euro/US$ iii)combination of both.

7) I understand 15% of reserves are gold; I believe I heard the ECB holds 3% reserves against all outstanding 'money'. Is this approximately correct?

8) As monetary base increases does reserves increase incrementally? ie: gold base increase also

9) Can we/have we kept a 'log' of the quarterly ECB 'mark-to-market' statistics (ie:tonnage) to visualize a stable, or increasing/decreasing gold reserve?

Thanks for your report.

Canuck.

Hello Oil, Gas & Electricity God!!

I see the 'Athabasca Oilsands' and 'Canadian Oilsands' trusts have 'merged'.

Any impact to POO, POG, POE?

Comments/implications?

(POE: price of eggs)

A subjective value can be ascribed, accustomated,
and psychologically accepted, just as a fraud can be perpetuated, only so long as its believed to be reality.

This will never change the bloom of a fraud is a fraud is a fraud.

When the time line of slow moving musical paper chairs
stops, I guess only then will the immediate moment of concern turn to INTRINSIC.

RE: "MAY I add that I think that you and most who post
and lurk here are in agreement but semantics often make it appear that we differ".

Karen Sue in my humble opinion it is more than just semantics.

That this is so could be the reason for ORO's posting priveledges being threatened and ET being jettisoned
off ship.

The new theme coming out of the political river of time
is that there is a "third way", a third tribulatry to
governing the affairs of man. This will prove futile as
since before Plato only two divergences broke off.

The two true divergences ...One being the propriety of the
STATE to promuligate mans affairs... The other being free common people to regulate their affairs as they see fit.

In short the STATE as progenerator of whats "GOOD", or the state is the ENEMY.

Gold is a political metal. Polemics is a branch on the tree of philosophy. Hence
in my opinion conflict on this Forum is unavoidable.

http://www.gold.org/Gra/Emu?future.htm "Gold retains a deepseated place in European Financial thinking, to an extent not always appreciated elsewhere in the world or by some modern generation of international bankers". Thta is a small snippet from the article at the link. I find it to be reasuring. They know history, as they are so much a part of it. When it comes to money(gold), they know who holds the gold makes the rules. I define Gold to be the ultimate form of money, so I call it money, as it is money to its best defintion. Funny how it says that many modern international bankers dislike gold in the monetary system. I suppose these are the ones that are putting up a battle to suppress the price through printing all the paper gold contracts that they need. the ECB has led these guys on playing a game they could (cannot) win. Meanwhile recruiting these guys through a GOLD CARRY TRADE, to help them reprice gold at a much higher value, at a later time. They are letting it playout right now. They are playing a game that they (ECB) cant lose.

Is it beach time around the globe?

Hi-Hat (07/07/01; 07:32:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 57636)
Karen Sue
RE: "MAY I add that I think that you and most who post
and lurk here are in agreement but semantics often make it appear that we differ".

Karen Sue in my humble opinion it is more than just semantics.

That this is so could be the reason for ORO's posting priveledges being threatened and ET being jettisoned
off ship."

Sir Hi-Hat,

Posters that have had their priviledges rescinded appear to me to have done one of two things (both mentioned in the guidelines)-

1) Promoting (or giving the appearance of same) some other company. When this is done intentionally it is no different from standing inside someone else's shop and hawking your wares. Very tacky.

2) Rudeness. In a recent case this was directed at the company that hosts this site. Also very tacky.

It is a real shame some of these contributors are MIA, perhaps this great experiment will evolve more flexible methods of dealing with these issues. Several times I've worried about my posts too, btw.

ORO was simply being reminded of what he already knows about the above, as he had proposed putting up a post he deemed unflattering.

Disclaimer- I have nothing to do with Centennial Precious Metals, though I am a client and do understand and agree with their policies, like clockwork.

Gold not making new lows with a falling CRB Index, slowing economy, and ramping dollar?

Waiting for the U.S. currency to collapse...

Tick-tock, tick-tock...

Hello Sir Turnaround. You are of course right in that
manners and attention to the agreed upon rules, are always proper attire.

I too have purchased gold through Centenial, will do so again, and reccomend them. Also am grateful for the "flexability" afforded to me here, as some of my posts
were rather inflamatory.

Other posters will have to speak for themselves, but on the
point of gold and political issues, I still stand in that frustrations can sometimes lead into heated passions that blind decorum.

As in that it is a forgone conclusion and natural that the
State be the arbitrator of Fiat, while magically, and shut out by political decree gold wealth will be recognised by
the masses.

I have been saying this very thing for a long while now.
The smartest move is the leasing out of gold. When the price goes up due to the unwinding of all these positions, it will be those who leased out gold that will gain most. All that gold will have to be returned, and if it is not, the leasing parties will own all the assets of those that leased it from them.

Thank you Randy.

And Leigh, I miss you

Smart for who?"The smartest move is the leasing out of gold."

It is not smart if the owner does not get the gold back. This has been discussed extensively at this forum. There have been a number of exchange defaults in the past where holders of contract claims to precious metals have been reimbursed in specie or had their contracts modified after the fact. Not smart for gold owners...
Smart for who?

Gold leasing. Yes, it has been a very good move to have made anytime, for the most part, all the way untill now. Time to come after now, will it still prove to be the "most smart move you could make"? How about this. So far it has been the best move. Now time to come could prove it to be the worst move that ever has been made. Could gold leasing have been used to sucker bullion banks into helping make the price of gold really jump in a time to soon come?? By how? By just what has occured at our current time in history with gold.

Smart for Whom?

~not reimbursed in specie~ and had their contracts modified after the fact.

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010707/wl/iraq_raid__dc_2.htmlThe "Wild East" is looking very bad when it come to any form of peace. The U.S. is very concerned, or at least appears to be, for good reason. If a war did come to life in this area, inflation would be harder to hide. Everything must be done to protect the U.S. Buck right now. Now the time is right however, for this to happen, and then we can blame this hole "Wild East" thing.

Leasing might be a good deal, or maybe not. Keep in mind that many of these deals are not with Comex contracts so exchange default is immaterial. They are OTC contracts between two private parties with contractual arrangements very favorable for the more savvy of the partners. Like the Ashanti-Goldman Sachs deal, one party will win out. If you put up collateral, you'll lose it to these guys and bankers always ask for collateral and (sometimes) are happy to take it from you. I'm sure Goldman-Sachs was drooling over the fact that when gold went off, they would have themselves a gold mine (literally). While this was a mining loan specifically, I'm sure that a leasing deal could be easily structured to favor the CB doing the leasing. It really depends on how smart or stupid the central bankers are. I wouldn't want to bet against them. Of course an LTCM scenario is always a possibility. Even the smart ones can act stupid at times. IMHO the real caveat however, will be war. If anything can screw things up, it's a war. That's where if you don't win, you don't get paid! And as time passes, we can see that the dogs of war are getting restless.

Welcome to our new TGO editor. This is from the link you provided earlier and should be posted IMHO:

...Greenspan argues persuasively in favor of a gold standard and against the concept of a central bank.

Can this be the same Alan Greenspan who today chairs the most important central bank of them all? Again, you might be surprised. R.W. Bradford writes in Liberty magazine that, as Fed chairman, "Greenspan (once) recommended to a Senate committee that all economic regulations should have fixed lifespans. Senator Paul Sarbanes (D-Md.) accused him of
'playing with fire, or indeed throwing gasoline on the fire,' and asked him whether he favored a similar provision in the Fed's authorization. Greenspan coolly answered that he did. Do you actually mean, demanded the senator, that the Fed 'should cease to function unless affirmatively continued?' 'That is correct, sir,' Greenspan responded."
Bradford continues, "The Senator could scarcely believe his ears. 'Now my next question is, is it your intention that the report of this hearing should be that Greenspan recommends a return to the gold standard?' Greenspan responded, 'I've been recommending that for years, there's nothing new about that. It would probably mean there is only one vote in the Federal Open Market Committee for that, but it is mine.'" -- Editor, The Gilded Opinion ]

Me: As I said, Greenspan ain't stupid. He may have to play along with this crap for now. But many wondered why he would opt for another term as Fed chairman a couple of years ago, when he surely knew what was coming. IMHO it is because he knows that a gold standard is coming and he wants to be the one to inaugurate it. My guess on whether we will have a gold standard is yes. I am 100% certain that we will, though the road to a gold standard may have some interesting twists and surprising turns. I believe that all central bankers would bristle at my suggestion that banks are an anachronism, save one...Greenspan.

If anyone is interested, Eldorado Gold is a medium sized miner who had until recently been involved heavily with Rothchild's, and as of Fri. has attempted to unwind themselves from their hedges and debt, and merge with a stronger partner. I think it's an interesting case to examine, as to how these deals work and a bellweather of the future for miners who are exposed to debt financing and the use of future oz's as collateral. There will be many more of these kind of things happening, but it was telling to notice the extremely heavy trading to the downside in ELD stock weeks ago with no news. Obviously something was amiss. Thankfully I own none, but do follow this co. as the proverbial 'canary' and my friendly connections.

Hello Oil, Gas & Electricity God!!

I see the 'Athabasca Oilsands' and 'Canadian Oilsands' trusts have 'merged'.

Any impact to POO, POG, POE?

Comments/implications?

Black Blade: This merger makes the largest petroleum trust. No real impact on the industry, however, it creates a very large energy trust in a unique and interesting energy play. The Athabasca tar sands have as much as 600 billion barrels contained oil. Unfortunately not all of it is economic at current prices due to quality and the difficulties on mining the tar sands from one area to the next. Some producers such as Suncor have been very happy lately after years of struggle. It appears that US crude oil will have found a minimum base level at around $25.00/bbl as OPEC has found that it can maintain discipline in the ranks. NG should stabilize as well as summer use is beginning to pick up and draw down on storage, then fall and winter use should begin. Every new power plant coming on line is NG-fired, and despite a doubling of drill rigs - production is nearly flat. Perhaps if the economy fall flat, then demand will fall as well. It is "cheap energy" that fuels the Bull, and right now all we see is Bear. Cheers!

Besides, gold is cheap and a good buy at these prices. Who knows how long that will last?

All forms of government obtain revenues through taxation-- a coerced levy upon the monetary incomes or assets. Our government (not the FED) now prints money and spends the proceeds on gold and silver and dumps it. In this way the government can direct resources from private money (gold) and utilize it for its own purpose. The resulting swindle represents revenue to the government. "The Federal Reserve stands ready to lease gold should the price rise"... by AG = The sale and loaning of central banks gold makes possible the manipulation of gold to promote fiat. -+_ The plundering of all producers by none producers will continue until gold is reestablished as a preserver of the fruits of one's labor. It used to be that corporate entities would strive to maintain a positive balance sheet (share holder equity). Now ownership has passed into the hands of men who strip assets and plunge companies into debt at the expense of stock holders holding claims against claims of nothing. Central banks gold short positions is increasing and the Treasury is back stopping it. It is the Treasury that forced Homestake to Barrick. Gold as money and as a measure of wealth would break the curse of the expropriators. Chief Expropriator is Bush Sr. Just what in the h--- is he trying to do?????? and for what purpose????? Who is he working for? He is a pawn in a bigger picture..?

"Central Banks stand ready to steal your gold, should the price rise"

". . . We recently were forced to witness the marriage of Vampire and Frankenstein. That shotgun event involving Barrick Gold and Homestake. As you know we recommend the sale of shares of both companies. The deal makes sense only on the basis that Homestake was headed into a great dark pit and Barrick wanted to exit almost half of its forward hedge position. This bringing together of companies for desperate reasons underscores the dilemma of a rigged manipulated market. . ."

In a nutshell, that's exactly what happened. Desperate times call for desperate measures. Barrick is in bad shape with a loss of -$1.93 a share and with 396,000,000 shares outstanding - well it doesn't look good does it?

http://62.172.78.184/feeds/worldoil/new/article_e.asp?energy24=238195
Snippit:

Mexico's state-owned oil monopoly Pemex remained silent Friday on reports of heavy crude oil production problems in the Gulf of Mexico. Crude spot market traders said Thursday that maintenance at natural gas fields inhibited Pemex's production of heavy, high-sulfur oil, which pushed up prices of US sour crudes. Pemex had said it planned to release a statement late Thursday, but so far has not responded to inquiries about the reports. Heavy crude accounts for nearly four fifths of Pemex's exports. In May, the company exported 1.34 million b/d of heavy Maya crude, out of total exports of 1.72 million b/d. Mexico is also among the leading suppliers of crude to the US, occupying the No. 2 spot in April, behind Saudi Arabia.

Black Blade: We may soon be exporting energy to Mexico.

http://www.petroleumworld.com/story4348.htm
Snippit:

FWN/Crude oil prices should rise this summer with no immediate OPEC plans to increase oil production levels, the U.S. Energy Information Agency forecast in its July Short-Term Energy Outlook report. "There should be enough demand growth to absorb the implied increase in world output and reduce the extent to which inventories have risen above year-ago levels," the EIA said in the report.

Black Blade: Poor Larry Kudlow (now of CNBC) expects crude prices to drop to $18.00/bbl. I hate to burst his bubble (not really), but that is highly unlikely. OPEC has managed to stop the cheating on quotas that have plagued the organization in the past. I expect higher prices and a boost in inflation, even in the BLS contrived CPI and PPI numbers.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010706/n06274705.html
Snippit:

Debt-burdened Cambior has been trying to restructure its finances and operations after a gold-hedging program derailed by a spike in gold prices in 1999 nearly sank the company and blasted its shares into a penny stock. In late June, Cambior and its Bolivian partner Minera SA sold their El Pachon copper project in Argentina to Noranda for $30 million.

Black Blade: A new CFO! I suppose that the old CFO didn't see this coming? ;-)

1999 Darwin Awards Winner
5 September 1999, Jerusalem

In most parts of the world, the switch away from Daylight Savings Time proceeds smoothly. But the time change raised havoc with Palestinian terrorists this year. Israel insisted on making a premature switch from Daylight Savings Time to Standard Time to accommodate a week of pre-sunrise prayers. Palestinians unequivocally refused to "live on Zionist Time." Two weeks of scheduling havoc ensued. Nobody knew the "correct" time.

At precisely 5:30 Israel time on Sunday, two coordinated car bombs exploded in different cities, killing three terrorists who were transporting the bombs. It was initially believed that the devices had been detonated prematurely by klutzy amateurs. A closer look revealed the truth behind the untimely explosions.

The bombs had been prepared in a Palestine-controlled area, and set on Daylight Savings time. The confused drivers had already switched to standard time. When they picked up the bombs, they neglected to enquire whose watch was used to set the timing mechanism. As a result, the cars were still en-route when the explosives detonated, delivering to the terrorists their "Un-Timely" demise.

Black Blade: OK, I know - but it is late and as we await the opening of the markets tomorrow in Asia, we can reflect on the possible Middle-East conflict. If this post is an indication of the great minds at work in the ME, then maybe war is the least of their problems. Cheers!

http://www.goldenbar.com/MainPages/GuestAnalysts/ResonanceFekete.htmThe Denouement of the Gold-in-Exile Saga

http://199.97.97.163/IMDS%PMAKRT0%read%/home/content/users/imds/feeds/knightridder/2001/07/07/krtbn/0000-0049-CC-POWER
Snippit:

Jul. 6--Critics of a complex price cap scheme launched last month by federal regulators quickly pounced on this week's unprecedented rolling blackout in Las Vegas and two days of power emergencies in California.

Black Blade: Summer has only just begun. The snowpack runoff is about gone and hydropower will soon decline. It is beginning to get "Interesting."

Gold - Cheap Insurance - Proven Protection!

Sir Black Blade,

Do you have any idea why Governor Davis has not yet been tarred, feathered and run out of town on a rail? When he sputters about "it's the law" to confiscate energy producer's private property, is he really aware of what the law is? Like- thou shalt not steal, or ..shall not be infringed... or congress shall pass no law restricting...
Perhaps you can forward this little object lesson along to the "proper authorities":

=======
Observations on the Causes of the Decline of Ancient Civilization

"Knowledge of the effects of government interference with market prices makes us comprehend the economic causes of a momentous historical event, the decline of ancient civilization.
"It may be left undecided whether or not it is correct to call the economic organization of the Roman Empire capitalism. At any rate it is certain that the Roman Empire in the second century, the age of the Antonines, the "good" emperors, had reached a high stage of the social division of labor and of interregional commerce. Several metropolitan centers, a considerable number of middle-sized towns, and many small towns were the seats of a refined civilization. The inhabitants of these urban agglomerations were supplied with food and raw materials not only from the neighboring rural districts, but also from distant provinces. A part of these provisions flowed into the cities as revenue of their wealthy residents who owned landed property. But a considerable part was bought in exchange for the rural population's purchases of the products of the city-dwellers' processing activities. There was an extensive trade between the various regions of the vast empire. Not only in the processing industries, but also in agriculture there was a tendency toward further specialization. The various parts of the empire were no longer economically self-sufficient. They were interdependent.
"What brought about the decline of the empire and the decay of its civilization was the disintegration of this economic interconnectedness, not the barbarian invasions. The alien aggressors merely took advantage of an opportunity which the internal weakness of the empire offered to them. From a military point of view the tribes which invaded the empire in the fourth and fifth centuries were not more formidable than the armies which the legions had easily defeated in earlier times. But the empire had changed. Its economic and social structure was already medieval.
"The freedom that Rome granted to commerce and trade had always been restricted. With regard to the marketing of cereals and other vital necessities it was even more restricted than with regard to other commodities. It was deemed unfair and immoral to ask for grain, oil, and wine, the staples of these ages, more than the customary prices, and the municipal authorities were quick to check what they considered profiteering. Thus the evolution of an efficient wholesale trade in these commodities was prevented. The policy of the annona, which was tantamount to a nationalization or municipalization of the grain trade, aimed at filling the gaps. But its effects were rather unsatisfactory. Grain was scarce in the urban agglomerations, and the agriculturists complained about the unremunerativeness of grain growing.[3] The interference of the authorities upset the adjustment of supply to the rising demand.
"The showdown came when in the political troubles of the third and fourth centuries the emperors resorted to currency debasement. With the system of maximum prices the practice of debasement completely paralyzed both the production and the marketing of the vital foodstuffs and disintegrated society's economic organization. The more eagerness the authorities displayed in enforcing the maximum prices, the more desperate became the conditions of the urban masses dependent on the purchase of food. Commerce in grain and other necessities vanished altogether. To avoid starving, people deserted the cities, settled on the countryside, and tried to grow grain, oil, wine, and other necessities for themselves. On the other hand, the owners of the big estates restricted their excess production of cereals and began to produce in their farmhouses--the villae--the products of handicraft which they needed. For their big-scale farming, which was already seriously jeopardized because of the inefficiency of slave labor, lost its rationality completely when the opportunity to sell at remunerative prices disappeared. As the owner of the estate could no longer sell in the cities, he could no longer patronize the urban artisans either. He was forced to look for a substitute to meet his needs by employing handicraftsmen on his own account in his villa. He discontinued big-scale farming and became a landlord receiving rents from tenants or sharecroppers. These coloni were either freed slaves or urban proletarians who settled in the villages and turned to tilling the soil. A tendency toward the establishment of autarky of each landlord's estate emerged. The economic function of the cities, of commerce, trade, and urban handicrafts, shrank. Italy and the provinces of the empire returned to a less advanced state of the social division of labor. The highly developed economic structure of ancient civilization retrograded to what is now known as the manorial organization of the Middle Ages.
"The emperors were alarmed with that outcome which undermined the financial and military power of their government. But their counteraction was futile as it did not affect the root of the evil. The compulsion and coercion to which they resorted could not reverse the trend toward social disintegration which, on the contrary, was caused precisely by too much compulsion and coercion. No Roman was aware of the fact that the process was induced by the government's interference with prices and by currency debasement. It was vain for the emperors to promulgate laws against the city-dweller who "relicta civitate rus habitare maluerit." [4] The system of the leiturgia, the public services to be rendered by the wealthy citizens, only accelerated the retrogression of the division of labor. The laws concerning the special obligations of the shipowners, the navicularii, were no more successful in checking the decline of navigation than the laws concerning grain dealing in checking the shrinkage in the cities' supply of agricultural products.
"The marvelous civilization of antiquity perished because it did not adjust its moral code and its legal system to the requirements of the market economy. A social order is doomed if the actions which its normal functioning requires are rejected by the standards of morality, are declared illegal by the laws of the country, and are prosecuted as criminal by the courts and the police. The Roman Empire crumbled to dust because it lacked the spirit of liberalism and free enterprise. The policy of interventionism and its political corollary, the Fuhrer principle, decomposed the mighty empire as they will by necessity always disintegrate and destroy any social entity...."

This should be carved into the walls of the Federal and California State Capitols:

"The emperors were alarmed with that outcome which undermined the financial and military power of their government. But their counteraction was futile as it did not affect the root of the evil. The compulsion and coercion to which they resorted could not reverse the trend toward social disintegration which, on the contrary, was caused precisely by too much compulsion and coercion. No Roman was aware of the fact that the process was induced by the government's interference with prices and by currency debasement."

http://www.mises.org/humanaction/chap30sec2.aspHuman Action, Chapter 30
--Ludwig von Mises

Hi Ross,
Smart for the central banks who are leasing out their gold. I am absolutely sure they are smart enough to know what they are doing. They will own these banks and mines and whoever else can't return the gold. I don't think you can default on these guys. They have the power of the government behind them. It would probably mean losing all your assets and maybe even a jail term. The banks will have to do anything it takes to return the gold, including becoming complete slaves to the central banks. That is what they are after isn't it? Complete control.View Yesterday's Discussion.

Who is NOT leasing gold? The US claims it is not. When the unwinding begins, who will be left out? The European central banks will have their hands grasped firmly around the necks of all who engaged in the leasing agreements with them. They will own these banks. Even the US based banks. Who is smart and who is not? Who will end up with all the gold?

I don't believe it people, but I guess this was bound to happen!

I just spent several days writing a piece that explained our whole philosophy. This time in a clear positive manner that was easy to read. I had decided to stay on the GoldTrail page only and elevate our discussion into a real time dialog. Events are close enough to a conclusion to warrant
this. After a ton of asking and asking I finally convinced Another to write with me in his true academic / professional voice. Great! No more editing for me.

So,,,, he gets today's forum from me and what does he read?
====================================

------ Journeyman (7/8/01; 06:40:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 57667)Bet you never heard this story. Media control & Chomsky @ALL

------Chomsky's proof
By William Rivers Pitt
The United States is unusual among the industrial democracies in the rigidity of the system of ideological control ---'indoctrination,' we might say--- exercised through the mass media. --Noam Chomsky -------------

-----------June 25, 2001
--In the early morning hours of Thursday, June 22, 2001, a man named Jared T. Bozydaj took to the streets of New Paltz, New York, with an Intrac Arms 7.62 semi-automatic assault rifle. He fired pointedly at police officers, wounding one officer named Jeffery Quiepo in the arm. The shooting went on for several hours before Bozydaj was disarmed and arrested.-----------------

--------Clearly this kind of control requires an extensive network of influence coordinated from some central "authority." If they cover-up (by failure to cover) this sort of thing, what about economic news such as the current major turbulence in Chile, Argentina and Brazil? Etc. ----------

-----Reminds me of ---another-- illustrious information guru. ---------------

---"Don't tell them ... then it will not exist ..." -Chief Nazi indoctrination "Information Officer" -----

======================
OK,,,,,,and if that was not good enough, here is one more! Go on,, read the whole post? A few items below:
========================

working-kirk (7/8/01; 05:49:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 57664)

---Which bring me to the subject of Crack Whores.-------

-------If you are selling sex you can get a blow job between $10.00 to $15.00. A Fuck goes From $25.00 to $100.00. A blow job takes anyway from a minute to three, and sexual intercourse can take five minutes to 15.----------------

===============

OK,,,,,,, good job men! Perfect timing! On subject and driving home the quality of this venue! I complained in two of my last three post about such discussion and most everyone here seemed to support a "freedom of speech" that included all of the above! Journeyman gets to associate Another with" indoctrination" and "Nazi" thought.

All right,,, good stuff J-man!

Well,,,,,, Michael,,,,,, Randy,,,,,,, All,,,,, For all my insisting to "him" that this venue was the correct place to build an understanding of our future world of gold,,,, I guess I was wrong? I got back a quick retort and firm instructions. Instruction I will follow till hell freezes over because I will not lose my connection to Another. He said simply "tell them right now our position and walk away, it's over"! And I can tell you when he says it's over,,,,, it is over!

So,,,,,,,,, MK, please understand that it's not old FOA walking away mad this time. The big guy said we are done. I'm back to discussing this in private with select people that want to hear it and debate it in private. I'll stay in touch with you and discuss as you may want? After all this work, I guess it's my turn to feel low now. What a bunch of garbage!

Good luck all, I did my best to plant the seeds of thought. Own the wealth of gold and they will grow for you!

You will now "watch this new gold market" without FOA or Another.

Your friend and hard worker,(smile).
Last post, Signed off!

Please think about the silent, yet grateful majority who lurk and post here, and reconsider leaving USA Gold. There are many, many posters, and lurkers, who find your input invaluable and irreplaceable, who have watched, understood and waited for the coming events.

It's very disappointing that Randy and/or MK haven't pulled the plug on a few "loud-mouths" with limited perspectives and constant, off-topic posts.

Apparently one of these posters took a compliment from MK as a green light to make such pathetic post.

Again, if possible, please reconsider. I would not blame you for just wanting to post on the Gold Trail. Think of the many thousands who greatly appreciate your efforts, and don't focus on a few idiotic posts by limited fools.

To all: The FOA/Another commentary is the main reason I come here. I am greatly p.o.'d at the posters involved, and at management for allowing this to occur. If there is any chance at retaining "The Gold Trail", ...ALL YOU LURKERS BETTER SPEAK UP NOW, AND POSSIBLY MAKE A DIFFERENCE!!

In absolute disgust.........That's it for me.

Yes, FOA and ANOTHER, we can see why you both wish not to be associated with some of the posters that can not understand the purpose of the USAGOLD FORUM. May I suggest to our good friend MK,that perhaps your THOUGHTS could be continued "On the Trail" and the FORUM, (as we know it), be DROPPED ! Other forums accept such trash and non-related discussion, but this has gotten out-of-hand and must be stopped.
<;-(

became rather deafening and as I have to admit I'm somewhat of a culprit too.
Not so much by stressing the fact, that some
unencumbered gold in the ground, would also be well worth to hold - and as I'm still sticking hazardously to some miners shares with well defined deposits - the merger or better surrender of HM to ABX has led to a revision of my overall portfolio strategy. Even if some proceeds from recent gold mining shares allowed for the purchase of extra physical, which was planned to be about 30%, may now even have grater weight.
No, more so by taking the odd detour from the main trail as in god and gold we trust and not in currency!

@ A/FOA - still hope to meet up with you on the trail.

Best regards - cb2

PS: MK - will call in tomorrow!

Can we take a careful, broad look at the whole picture?

First of all, I had the same shock you did as my opening 'fast-scroll' glommed onto the banal drivel from Mister Kirk's emboldened attempt to use this venue for his literary ascendancy to the high profit world of trashy talk. I see this abuse of MK's compliment has already been remarked upon. Perhaps by the time this is posted, Randy will have consumed enough caffeine to have confronted the task of consigning the piece to the Cyber-furnace.

Regarding J-Man's post, however, I can find nothing to indicate the insinuation you suggest. Being in the camp that is concerned with the possibility of the Forum becoming a 'Guru and Sycophant Show,' I don't believe that would have escaped me.

I took J-Man's post to be referring to media suppression of positive information and opinions regarding gold. I believe this was the precise subject of Michael's second or third contest.

TG; I am certainly not one qualified to cast stones, first or otherwise, so regard this as an attempt to describe an honest observation. There has been a trend, of late towards a dogmatic attitude in areas that are the expressions of opinion and prognostication as opposed to computations of data. Also, some of us here choose to build ideas in a joint venture format using our posts as building blocks to work towards the construction of a completed concept. We elect to respond to each other's questions and counterpoints in order to achieve a consensus. While, of course, no one is obligated to do so, the onsite environment of late has been discouraging to the 'bouncing' of ideas.

Sadly, some of the discussion you and Another are rightly lamenting the absence of, take place privately as a few of us seek our build our ideas in a more personal and therefore more cooperative environment. As an example, just before logging on this morning I had suggested to J-man that one of us post the following.

PA >>> > What do you think of the Idea that CB backing of gold is unnecessary tokenism???

J-Man >>>> I assume you mean gold backing for some currency or another? If so, it's completely BS unless said currency is directly redeemable in gold at some specific value. And clearly even when they claim it is, people better check
regularly - - - and not trust that just because it's redeemable today that it will be tomorrow.

CBs hold gold, though many are not "consciously" aware of it, to keep a "spoiler" for the use of gold in private transactions (they can dump and everyone knows that) and/or to cut down the available supply to the same ends.

They themselves complain that there's no good reason to keep gold because it doesn't pay interest, and largely because of storage and security costs incurred in storing it, is a drain on the bank. It is "vault cash" in the sense it produces no interest - - - though of course, they don't have to pay interest, just expenses, to hold it. Particularly given this context, it might be interesting to ask CB management just why they DO hold gold. Wonder what they're thinking these days?

In my opinion the safest way to accept gold substitute use is in a very transparent context where the gold on hand is easily verifiable by "users." The best I've seen, and impossible before, is the E-GOLD setup. Not infallible of course.

In the past, gold and paper didn't mix. We'll see how things turn out today once those inter-currency cross-border transactions begin to be replaced by private gold transactions. Will it catch on? How fast?
Will the man-in-the-street catch on? If so, how long will it take? Wish I knew!

But if/when prices in various places begin to be posted in gold, particularly for international transactions, that will be an important cluethat "we're on the trail." <<<

------

So, Trail Guide, how about we all work together to get the former Round Table essence back into the game. When I had a phone chat with Michael during the last crises he too lamented the loss of those days. I told him I considered that it was he who brought the Round Table into being, specifically by his active participation in the Forum. However, while he humbly demurred, I see he is attempting to return to the board as much as his own work load permits.

Allot of the off and undesirable subject matter has been code-blocked (Although IMO a few babies were thrown out with the bath water) and I thought we were making progress.
I believe we are at the point where we can make it or break it, so lets all give it our best shot.

Regards to Another and may the Golden Force be with us. ---P.

This looks quite bad, possibly terminal. Deep regrets and sadness that this has occured, as the outcome is awaited. I wish to simply express my sincere appreciation for all the thought provocation that has been a result of these pages. This grand experiment can hopefully continue at the discretion of our gracious host by simply enforcing existing rules.
ANOTHER and FOA-- Appreciation to you both for your many fine efforts and insights. We still watch these markets unfold TOGETHER! Godspeed!
auspec

I am a grandfather who feels that I finally have a chance to do for my family what millions are not able to do. This feeling all comes from what you and ANOTHER have taught me in the last three years. What you have taught I have regularly passed to my family and a few close friends.
Without your teaching I still would not have a clue. Thanks for what you have shared.
Eternally grateful!!!

ClintH

I can find nothing to indicate Journeyman is associating Another with" indoctrination" and "Nazi" thought.

I have greatly appreciated you and Another sharing your thoughts!

What a sad thing to log on to today!

I wish Another could appreciate that you and he have been showing us some pathways to freedom that we never might have suspected. Making us think our own THOUGHTS.

There has always been a discrepancy between the Old World and the "New", among us "cousins" on both sides of the pond (whichever one), if that's where Another is writing from. Our ways of speaking are perceived as a little too "wild and woolly" for those whose cultural roots go back many more centuries. Our free speech and peculiar geography and history have often led to a paranoid distrust of foreigners by many. That is NOT the majority of us.

From one friend to A/another, I think you must re-think your impulse to flee a conversation where we are hampered by the medium, and cannot nor do not want to control the words of other valuable contributors. It is the ATTITUDE and INTENT that we each bring here that makes this a special place. We have appreciated yours; please consider ours in like manner. Gotta go ("Daddy, Dad-d-d-dy-yyyyyy!").. parent responsibilities. I hope I have said something you will consider, my friends.

I once wrote a post to a guy named slingshot and asked him if he was going to use that thing on "Goliath" {you know the David/slingshot/Goliath connection}. If I understand what transpired thereafter, this post was taken as a direct afront to our friend, Trail Guide, because of the "giant" reference, where that was the furthest thing from my mind. Of course this all worked out to the apparent satisfaction of all, but it does show there can exist a 'sensitivity' to a perhaps 'poor choice of words'.
Before a terminal solution is applied to today's 'incident', can we [por favor] make sure we are not looking at a similar occurrence, which is simply a {See I almost used the word 'another' there} misunderstanding.
J'man, what say you? Is this a mere misunderstanding?
a

"and walk away, it's over"! And I can tell you when he says it's over,,,,, it is over!"

____________________________________________________
I respect your choice, Thanks much...........very sad to ponder the loss of such insight and hard work from yourselves. (Shows my selfish side?) Especially as you say "Events are close enough to a conclusion to warrant this."

One conclusion brings another beginning.......of which you have contributed greatly to "understanding", thank you again. As the old cowboys used to say "Happy Trails" to you and yours!

Regretfully,
Buena Fe

PS "He said simply "tell them right now our position..."
Does that imply a TG-FOA msg#81?

There are many things in the world an honest person does not have to stand for. Personal attacks are one of them. Things that assault your moral sensibility are another.

I would seriously reconsider your decision.

Your ideas and posts have benefited a small number of people here but will be FOR NAUGHT if you do not post the clear, concise explanation you had suggested you were about to do. By posting a concise version, you allow the small number here to understand your view and transmit it to hundreds and thousands of other people who could never be exposed to such rational thought. The ignorant cackling,prattling, and general socialist brainwashing that is everpresent in the world, can only be smashed through by the likes of yourselves and MK and many other posters who are viewing the decay and can see the forest for the trees.

You don't owe anyone a favor here, but for the sake of the posters who ARE interested, post the final shot. Give it everything you've got. Make it diamond clear. You will have done the world a favor, whether you care or not.

Once you've posted it, fine. Then you will no longer have to constantly defend yourself from the attacks of others who don't 'get it' If a lucid response/argument appears,
PICK YOUR SPOTS, why respond to every half-baked post?

A couple of people of your intellectual prowess should'nt blink at that kind of tripe. Your above that, so show it by ignoring the 'noise', and deliver what it is that you have set out to do man.

OK, I read your excerpts that offended Another. Sounds pretty bad, haven't had the wish or time to read those posts entirely. I can see the sensitivities, however.

This Internet instant-publishing-together is new stuff. It's not an academic journal where there is editorial review before it goes before all eyes. We have a great freedom here, and with that goes responsibility. I maintain that valuable posters here sometimes slip -- we all have our bad days (or months)! And some days, yes, we just kind of blather on (as now?) to fill space -- I mean there's always something NEW here anytime you come, right? We don't maintain a dedicated seriousness at all times; that's life!. Somedays we just need a little distraction, right? Dammit, we are doing PRETTY WELL OVERALL for the type of instant posting we are capable of. The responsibility level has been pretty high, I think.

Maybe this medium is just not up to Another's standards (I WOULD LOVE TO READ AT LEAST THAT FINAL POST YOU WERE WORKING ON!!!) of academic discernment. He may have had better experiences and treatment elsewhere that have formed his expectations. But we are not professionals here, either in finance, or financial writing. We do pretty well for just a group of FRIENDS who hang around and share our THOUGHTS, on both good days and bad. I think the Forum brings out close to the Best in many people, surprisingly so!!!

Maybe the 'Net doesn't work so well for this. But we -- you, me, Another, and FOA -- are pioneers here. No one has walked this way before. And how would we have met these two otherwise? Ain't gonna happen! In any structure of discussion, we'd need to make allowances...

The Forum's format -- a single-thread free-topic discussion -- places EVERY word under everyone's nose. A multi-thread discussion, where you get a daily menu of the threads receiving new posts, allows some better avoidance of that which is not desired. Not perfectly, but some more distance. Or in reverse, as when we wanted FOA to have his own separate thread so we could find his postings more completely. That's a technical solution option to the difficulties of a new medium.

I still think of it as you two volunteered (THANK YOU!) to lead a post-graduate level seminar in International Finance; the one I never would have gotten even if I had gone through to that PhD in Economics. In every class I ever sat in, there were students with all different attitudes about being there. (And their decorum was certainly different when the teacher was "out of the room".)

Teachers did not always get accorded the respect they were due then, either. But at least we got to act out our hi-jinx back in the dormitories -- here, there's no "out of class" time among us, no private activities or discussion. EVERYTHING is right out in public view, for better or worse. There is a trustworthiness to that fact that can be used to the good, I believe.

I think you need to consider the Gold Trail as your publication to the world, and background the rest of us as you see fit and necessary. Doesn't that provide you and Another the distance you need from objectionable postings? Much easier than trying to control all words and their multivarious interpretations.

I mean, I try -- I re-read before hitting the "Submit" button, for spellings and sentence discombobulations -- but I know I always see more after I hit it. Where's my ERASE button? Some days, even doing your best doesn't seem to be enough.

(Cynical aside: would we be having this discussion if last month's spike had gone through the statosphere? In other words, I'm feeling frustrated -- how 'bout you? Is it me, or just this crazy time we're living in?)

ANOTHER: If you read the other posts, then I hope you've read this one. I DO feel cheated: We were just starting to get acquainted. Given the limits of this medium, and our speaking from anonymities, consider the magnitude of what you've already accomplished. One thing I have been incorporating into my financial learning since encountering you two is -- guess what? -- PATIENCE. And, a long-term overview. I trust it will stay with me, even if you two go. Something I cannot control, even as I control my own impulsiveness.

Please consider this and take a larger overview of what's going on here...

Amen, brother. Second that...

Having reread Journeyman's post, I conclude that he was warning us that there is evidence that newsworthy events sometimes happen which are not reported. He provides a link to such a story. The article suggests that "government media control" is filtering our news.
From the article, "This kind of quiet censorship, however, raises some disturbing questions."
Often I have lamented the lack of verifiable news concerning the activities of both the gold and silver markets. Over the counter (off Comex) trades and the privacy (lack of disclosure) policy of the London markets make the calculations of supply/demand fundamentals nearly impossible. With London's policy, Warren Buffet can shield news of sales or leasing of the 129 million ounces of silver he purchased some years ago.
That Journeyman provides proof of a lack of media coverage does indeed, IMO, enhanse the urgency for gold and silver ownership. In this regard, I find the article appropriate to the subject of metal ownership. That Trail Guide has somehow interpreted this post as an insult or as an offensive post has me confused.
Sir Trail Guide, your objection was emphatic and immediate as if a great insult had been endured. I suggest that, after much thought, if I can not even percieve the injustice, that perhaps you have overreacted. Also, perhaps I don't see what is right before me. Could you explain, please, the insult of Journeyman's post???
Thanks
Rich

TO the best teachers of reality I have ever come across, thanks. My own form of thinking at the ripe age of 27 is now forever changed for the better. For surely what you have shared has been has been wisdom of a kind, that is very much important. My best times come when I am alone with my thoughts gardening, thinking of the thoughts I have read you have shared. SO that is what I am going to go do right now.


Way off subject. A have been experimenting with fertilizers. Try AGGRAND, its a fish, kelp fertilizer that works great. Next would be Peruvian Seabird Guano. Aggrand is a 4-3-3, and Peruvian Seabird is a 12-12-3 (use it as a tea). Go Organic Gardening and Gold!

The Mid-East is getting "red hot". I will post some links later. I am off to the garden.

Just a short note of appreciation for all the great posts and thought provoking concepts you have shared at USA Gold. Your ideas have forever changed how many gold followers think about gold and saved many of us from gold surrogates. From other sites I can assure your ideas have attained great "currency." Holding physical is accepted wisdom whereas in the past the options and mining shares were the grail as they are supposed to be geared many times to the gold price.

I have been following the gold discussion on numerous sites for about 3 years and I regard yours and Another's thoughts as high pinnacles. Fortunately your legacy exists on the Trail and Gilded Opinion and also in my extensive FOA clippings file many of which I have circulated to clients who all now hold trusty physical -- many in significant portions.

My wife's and my own small wealth and my 9 year old son, who has earned cash in advertising, is invested in Krugers.

We have come a long distance and some of the companions are certainly less congenial than the former and some have fallen off the trail. Who said it would be easy to follow in the footsteps of giants?

Cyberspace if full of graffiti --the page down facility is my favorite key. Just as I would spend no time considering scribblings on the back of toilet doors so I totally disregard drivel and hobbyhorses. The ratio of gold to earth is very small and so to with gems on the internet. Your postings have been a rich vein to this searcher

So for all the walks and the commentary I am profoundly grateful to you and Another.

Dogs bark but the caravan moves on. I do hope we will have the pleasure of seeing the Trail updated again -- after all a teacher is only happy teaching however mindless some of the students appear.

In tribute
Shalom and God bless

Chrusos

What is going on here? Working-kirk and journeyman are speaking the truth. They are talking about real life. That their posts are somewhat out of topic doesn't change that fact.

What in working-kirk's post so angered Trail Guide? Instead of taking the posture of the offended virgin I rather should like to know what in that post was so insulting. Personally I found it very realistic and up to the point.

As for journeyman, I am at a loss to understand how Trail Guide can be offended.

It seems to me that Trail Guide wants to decide what we are allowed to say in this forum. I don't play that game.

I won't say more for now.

Journeyman's "Reminds me of another illustrious information guru" is relating to Goebbels! It has nothing to do with "ANOTHER", this is clearly a large misunderstanding of Jman's post.There are words in the English language such as 'another', giants, Goliath etc. that are in common usage outside our esteemed Gold Trail. There is no monopoly on these words! I can clearly see the hypersensitivity, but it is missplaced in this situation.
Journeyman has his differences of opinion, but I have never seen cheap shots from him or conduct other than that of a Gentleman.
We should not lose our two most esteemed GENTLEMEN over this issue! Or any other Gentleman for that matter.
Right, GENTLEMEN??

http://www.economictimes.com/today/07curr02.htmDollar lords it over the currency pack

"The harder they come, the harder they fall, one and all..."
- Jimmy Cliff (1971)

Please reconsider and do not punish your many -silent- followers (who DEPEND on your ongoing guidance and encouragement) for the abuse of the forum by some posters.

Working Kirk's post of this morning is totally offensive and completely beyond the realm of our discussion.The rules of the forum are well known to all posters,especially after the J-Man incident of the last few weeks.I am well aware,as all of us are,of the seamier side of the human condition. I don't need to be reminded of this in one of the few refuges on the net where politeness and proper conduct are to be expected.Working Kirk,I have sympathy for your plight,but you have tainted the forum with your poison.Just go away,please.

Trail Guide,please reconsider;we need your input as the trail becomes steep and dangerous.

Ladies and Gentlemen,
This is not the time for division. Although I have been a GOLDBUG for a short time compared to most of you, only a fool would deny that something is in the wind. To be quiet now would play into their hand. The lurkers and Small Time Investers need someone to hold up the torch. USAGOLD has performed this job SECOND TO NONE! To tell you the truth, There is no way I can gather, process and disseminate the information posted on this site. It is a joint effort. All I have is what I see at my dealer. Its not 100 0z. Just 1/10 or an ounce at a time. I believe that is going to bite them in the shorts. I hope I have not offended others in the past by my humor and poor computer skills. The call for the Lurkers to come forth has been raised. I'm Still Here! Where are THE REST OF YOU!
Slingshot

FOA, ANOTHER, I am very sorry that you are no longer using this forum to educate readers on the Gold Trail. I have read every Post that you have written and have learned much. I am very upset at the type of language that appears here, not really necessary to make a point, and that some posters that seek to demonstrate their superior knowledge go a little bit over the line. I know that you have shown the way on the Gold Trail and it will continue until its ultimate end of trail. The fact that you will not be there to explain current happenings as they fit into the Trail, to me, will take a lot of the excitement and fun out of hiking on the trail. But, Trail Guide as the events unfold and the trail ends much the way you and Another have predicted and Gold Goes " TO THE MOON, ALICE" I find it hard to believe that you will not post just one more time in Jubilation for every worker must have his due for a job well done as we all cheer you both. The Best for you both, White Hills

FOA ANOTHER: I thought Mr Kirks post earlier today was an "error" on his part, he is capable of "much, much better" than this. It could be that there is some things he may need to do at this point, as we all do when any of us "mess up". Lets let the dust settle. Mr Kirk, I believe you'll do the honorable thing now(smile).

FOA, Auspec makes some good comment which I won't take band width repeating in my words, just let me say . . . Sir you've got to do what you gotta do. I came here years ago to read your posts among other reasons. I have been challenged and educated a the same time. Nothing lasts for ever, the only sign of life is. . .growth. If it's the time and season to move the wagon on, so be it, just have peace Sir & don't move reactionly.

In any case, let me just say for the last few years, "Thank You Sir!" - May God richly bless you wherever you go - regards Murray.

My approach to the market analysis of any commodity is that of price determination by supply and demand. In most markets that include growing seasons, supply equals last year's leftovers (carryover) plus this year's production. Demand equals the best estimates of projected useage. All these numbers are revised as time passes. Of course, nothing is this simple and politics, wars, embargos and currency exchange rates are just some examples of other variables. However, continually changing supply and demand estimates are constantly reflected in price changes. It is not unusual for a change in the weather to drastically alter grain prices, often many times in one week. Slight yearend changes in carryover (usually expressed as a percentage of the yearly useage) determine prices.
Obviously, markets such as gold and silver are different in that carryover is a much greater amount than a small percentage of one year's total use. However, given that demand is greater than supply year after year, shouldn't the price reflect a growing tightness in supply regardless of what carryover exists. Did not this carryover exist many years ago and is it not growing smaller as time passes? I know, the massive paper trade has obscured the true yearly supply and demand fiqures.
But can paper trading really obscure the fact that demand will exceed supply in the silver market in the near future?? Judging from their known financial moves, the likes of Gates, Buffett and Soros have invested in silver (and probably gold) yet are we to still assume that the market players, producers and consumers are still unaware of the impending shortfall?? I believe this may be true of most technical analysts who manage huge commodity funds. Are we so few in number and influence that the huge above ground excess of silver, that has existed all our lives, will actually run out before the POS reflects the true supply/demand situation??
Can't happen! I don't know of many commodity analysts (out of the large number whose opinions I read) that saw the 4 times price rise in natural gas. It's coming and strength of advance surprised the majority of those whose make their livelihood from watching for just such occurances
Solomon recently answered some of my questions (thanks!) with an opinion that silver may double within 3 years. I believe he is even more optimistic than that thinking that "the dramatic situation in silver is simply not discounted for". Both of us believe that, when it happens, prices will advance explosively and, as both gold and silver are monetary metals, POG will explode with the silver. Whatever positions you favor, holding some before the event seems prudent. AOL has already warned me of a coming disconnect so I must sent this now or lose it!
Any thoughts!!??
Rich

If you want to see some interesting data on gold/silver vs many currencies check out oanda and on the graph page you can juxtapose different combinations. It's revealing.

To clarify, what I should have said,
Will the price of silver disregard the once huge but now almost extinct above ground supply? Will the market demand that existing carryover plus yearly production (total supply) fall short of demand before price rationing appears? There are many quesstimates concerning exactly when this may happen but even the most exhaustive efforts are inaccurate due to the market's lack of transparency.
The cotton market, with China being equal to the U.S. in production and demand, has also frustrated serious efforts to ascertain supply/demand numbers. It does not surprise me that GFMS cited China as a dishoarder of 61 million ounces of silver last year. I suspect that, when the numbers don't tally correctly, they are forced to quess or surmise or suppose like the rest of us.
I find the present POS unrealistically low, especially given the hints of the opinions of truly great, patient, quality investors like Berkshire Hathaway. My own quess, and make no mistake, it is a quess; is that an actual shortfall will occur next year. By this I mean not enough silver to fill existing orders for those who actually use the physical silver. I will be even more amazed if the POS remains calm until the very day this happens.
Will this happen? Shrug, shrug. What do we know of Marcos silver? Black silver? Unaccounted for hoards? I have hit a frustrating impass as I can not find enough sources of information to increase my knowledge of this situation. I will be very grateful for any leads towards more knowledge! Thanks!!
Last point. When an actual shortfall occurs and there is not enough supply to fill immediate orders for those in need of physical silver, I believe, then, at that time, no amount of paper trading will be able to control the POS.
My limited understanding of trader psychology leads me to believe that POS can not rise very much before POG follows upward, and POS (IMHO) is going to rise very much. The same works for POG leading POS upward. This belief is based on how traders work and has nothing to do with fundamentals (which also foretell of price increases).
Writing helps me to clarify my thoughts. It also helps me retain facts and thoughts. I have none in my immediate every day existence who have even the slightest interest in any of what so many here find fasinating. Thanks for listening and sharing thoughts.
Rich
P.S. My wife wishes to add her thanks that you will listen to me.

My plan of action has always been, number one, Phone the person. Whoever it is, Engelhard, J+M,China, I don't care. I phone people directly and ask pointed questions. Sometimes you will be shocked at the level to which you will rise. Many times when I was promoting some rap group to a label I would somehow manage to get into the presidents office and would be told many candid,revealing things, maybe even GASP things I didn't want to hear. Also I learned MANY things I never would have known, from reading articles alone. If you want something done.............you know the rest. As for silver supplies, through my phone calls I've discovered that many products are not available for long periods or not at all, from different refiners.

I apprieciate all the information you have given us here at the forum. I feel very blessed to have stumbled across this web page just a little over a year ago. Thanks for waking me up to what is happening.

If you are one of "small worth", can you not follow in the footsteps of giants? I tell you, it is an easy path to follow!"

I just love this saying. Thanks again.
Turkey Hunter

I have read articles that silver is to be used in power transmission. 3 tons per mile. The medical field for its anti bacterial anti fungal capabilities and since pure water will be a factor inthe future, its filtration capabilities.
Could silver out pace gold in the ratio equation or will gold and silver be a push me tug me scenario?
Slingshot

Hello TG/FOA/Another

To be sure, there was one offensive post today and, that is regrettable.
However, to leave because of that would be akin to seeing someone through trash on the sidewalk and then leave the city because of it.

I'm here every day soaking up as much as I can.

I appreciate everybody's efforts in bringing in so much data, analysis, and thoughtful discussion. : )

OOPS!
Should read "throw trash". : )

I have known of, followed, and finally met the brains behind the US production of 'bandages' impregnated with silver and similar medicinal uses. Let me assure you there is solid science behind these undertakings and they will/should reach state of the art sometime in the not too distant future. It is real. If you want a wound to heal rapidly without scarring, silver bandages are for you. The Japanese use silver on the surfaces of commonly used items such as writing pens as to make the surfaces bacteria resistant. Colloidal Silver has been FDA approved for MANY decades as an antibacterial solution. In their protectionistic ways this is currently under attack as I understand it, not because of the inneffectiveness of silver, but because of FDA/Pharmaceutical business as usual. Why does silver have these properties when other elements DO NOT? I don't know, but always keep some on hand for medicinal purposes. Within 10 years this will be 'common' knowledge and you will see advertisements on TV promoting same. Another indispensable use for the marvellous element, Ag.
Thanks,
agspec

Awhile back I read an article which stated that when F.D. Roosevelt made it illegal to own gold that a Goverment person was with you when you opened your safety deposit box.
Can that happen today? Imagine if people started to take fiat money out of the bank. Those who have savings anyhow.
Combine that with cashing in those stocks. The coin/ bullion only takes cash and at then end of the day makes a cash drop to the bank. Well all that cash from one spot. Now when it goes electronic the goverment has a a small track on where the gold is going. All it has to say is that you must register your gold transaction. No tax, just register. Will the flight to PM's produce a run on the banks. The Goverment will not care if the coin/ bullion dealer holds the gold. But I think it will when sales pick up.
Slingshot

How valuable would gold be to the CBs if there were no public Gold ownership. There has to be a buyer pool to create the value to back the currency and economy having the hoard. Or so it would seem.

Rich(57695)

Rich.- Will the price of silver disregard the once huge but now almost extinct above ground supply? Will the market demand that existing carryover plus yearly production (total supply) fall short of demand before price rationing appears? There are many quesstimates concerning exactly when this may happen but even the most exhaustive efforts are inaccurate due to the market's lack of transparency.

Netking > Yes it has disregarded "the once huge but now almost extinct above ground supply", but ONLY because the market perceives there is more inventory than what there is. . .a.k.a. LEASING! This is a perverse manifestation of (IMO)the most manipulated market of all time, when it's time though to break through because of an exhaustion of physical supply, then that pent up energy will be released on the price.
----------------------------------------------------------
Rich.:"existing carryover plus yearly production (total supply) fall short of demand before price rationing appears?"

Netking> . . . This IS the case now Rich. . .yet it's because of leasing that the supply of silver has been multiplied, to the point of near exhaustion in above ground physical terms, it's like a human with huge amounts of energy being run on huge doses of steroids but undergoing multiple major organ failure at the same time, it will catch up. . . . As I posted saturday(?)from 'Jeffrey Christian's: CPM Groups Silver Report' "Mine production could rise another 100 million ounces over the next few years, which would represent an expansion of historical proportions. Even if it did, the increase in and of itself would NOT(NOT!)be sufficient to close the gap between new supply and demand". . . every time the market trys to rally, Leasing's tag wrestling partner called "Short Selling" steps into the ring, this guy was trained by King Curtis, He's da Man! . . . But when the physical from ANY source(particularly leasing) starts to dry then, ignition.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Rich. When an actual shortfall occurs and there is not enough supply to fill immediate orders for those in need of physical silver, I believe, then, at that time, no amount of paper trading will be able to control the POS.

Netking> You read it 100% correct Rich. Until that time the paper dealers will continue to short & will have a measure of control. But look for the PPT to do a prgressive retreat to a higher price before years end or soon after(?), releasing the pressure on the "pressure cooker" a little(I suggest $6.00-$10.00(IMVHO)). This will be a good time for those with some paper to change to all physical holding if they want to yes.
------------------------------------------------------------
Rich. My limited understanding of trader psychology leads me to believe that POS can not rise very much before POG follows upward, and POS (IMHO) is going to rise very much. The same works for POG leading POS upward. This belief is based on how traders work and has nothing to do with fundamentals (which also foretell of price increases).

Netking> Think of the POS tied to it's bigger brother "The POG" by a stretchy bungy cord, whatever one does the other will copy except that silver more will be exaggerated up AND down. . .we have seen that ratio exaggerated down, now ahead the upward exaggeration of POS:POG ratio.

Your wife will thank you for the silver, particularly in the next year or two, mine has actually come to like "all those bars"(grin), I keep 'em all polished up now like her silver spoons! Time is getting close, much sooner than we think . . .my calls are for Dec '02 but it'll be cash in time prior to that(IMO) (PS: You may want to E Mail Ted Butler with some specific questions. I won't post his E Mail, but it's not too hard to find) - Netking

Truly your thoughts have created the possibility of changing the world! Ever since I discovered USA GOLD and read your thoughts, I have since chanded my life. I drink alot more now :) Both of you have have planted the seeds for greatness in many peoples lives without asking for any part of the harvest. This is truly a sad day....... I sincerely
"hope" (I hate this word) you reconsider your decision, I would very much enjoy following both of you on the trail before us all. I can imagine there will be many wrong turns on the journey, nothing experienced guides can't handle.
Your thoughts on the future of gold have been wonderfull, If you leave, our new song will be que sera sera the future's NOT.....

Best wishes to you both, NOTHING

I am saddened and empathic with the dis-respect
and cavalier manner shown to you and USAGOLD today.

FOA and Another freely chose to engage the public
through this venue. Of course they can freely choose
not to.

However, at this crucial point in the dialogue, with them
being afforded the unique status and honor of being up on the company masthead, and blow us all out of the water in front of the world, without consulting YOU first........
is not a class ACT.......in my opinion.