USAGOLD Discussion - August 2001

canamami

(08/01/2001; 20:36:34 MDT - Msg ID: 58925)

A political win for gold in '97 - campaign finance and gold clauses?

http://caselaw.lp.findlaw.com/scripts/getcase.pl?navby=search&case=/data2/circs/8th/953666pv2.htmlI previously posted that gold clauses were made legal again in 1977. Heirs of the Trostel estate owned a commercial building in Des Moines, Iowa. A 99-year lease had been entered into circa 1917. The heirs were receiving, I believe, about $23,000 per annum rent. The true commercial value would be about $1 million, or is alleged to be that amount. The original lease contained a gold clause, giving to the lessors the right to demand payment in gold coin of the same nature, fineness, etc. as existed at the time of the lease. This was a kind of anti-inflation clause then in use for long-term contracts. Anyway, the enforcement of gold clauses was outlawed in, I believe 1933, but this was repealed for obligations entered into after 1977...i.e., Congress made gold clauses legal again in 1977.

The lease was transferred to a new party in 1990. The agreement pro-forma referenced the original terms, which of course contained the gold clause. The Trostel heirs argued the 1990 transfer again triggered the gold clause. They demanded payment in gold coin. They won in court. Apparently, the paper dollar equivalent is about $360,000. Not a $million, but better than $23,000.

See the excerpts from "the insider" reproduced below, and the link to the case decision reproduced above. Apparently, Congress limited the effect of the 1977 restoration of gold clauses in 1996, which was apparently intended to change the outcome of the Trostel lawsuit. The losing party was an insurance company. A few days after the 1996 amendment, the insurance company gave the Republican party $100,000. However, gold won this battle. In 1997, the 1996 amendment was itself repealed, and the law restored to the 1977 state, which completely restored gold clauses. In fact, the '96 amendment was to apply to the sorts of situations in Trostel, so that old gold clauses could not spring back to life unless everyone expressly agreed. However, the main practical impact, IMHO, for gold clauses is in the case of these old leases, because gold clauses are not really used anymore, to the best of my knowledge, which is the fault of goldbugs, I submit; you Americans have the right to use gold clauses, so if you really believe in gold why don't you use them?

Anyway, gold won a political victory in 1997, in addition to its win in 1977. And the Trostels won their case in the end, which I submit is only right. Would the original owner have agreed to such a long lease with locked-in rent, without the protection of a gold clause? Probably not. Here, gold served its role by protecting this man's heirs. See below the excerpts concerning the political contributions.

#7 SMALL CHANGE MEANS BIG CHANGE: A two sentence change in federal law, passed with the aid of Republican U.S. Sens. Jesse Helms and D.M. "Lauch" Faircloth, has made an Iowa insurance company very happy and a Colorado heiress livid. Anne Galbraith is losing hundreds of thousands of dollars on a Des Moines, Iowa, building she inherited from her grandfather because the change means the rent she is stuck at 1933 prices -- $23,000 a year for space that could fetch more than $1 million a year. The change involves "gold clauses" put in long-term leases in the early 1900s to protect against inflation. They allowed owners to demand rent in dollars or its value in gold (Carol Leonnig, CHARLOTTE OBSERVER, 6/29). The clauses were banned during the Depression, but Helms led a drive in 1977 to allow landlords to enforce the clauses in certain situations. Galbraith invoked the clause in 1991 and won in court last year. Meanwhile, Helms was approached in 1995 by a Washington lobbyist seeking to limit gold clauses to help a client in Texas facing a hefty rent increase because of a gold clause. Helms aides say he was too busy and the matter was referred to Faircloth, who got the change added to the 1996 Economic Growth Act. After the law passed, Galbraith's tenants, American Life & Casualty filed an emergency appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court claiming the amendment was specifically designed to help the company. The court ruled in the company's favor in February. Stephen Hilbert, chairman of Conseco, American Life's parent company, wrote the Republican National Committee a check for $100,000 within days of the amendment passing. Helms and Helms said there was no connection between the contribution and the company's claims to the Supreme Court. They have written Hilbert asking him to retract statements the amendment was intended for American Life.

#4 CAMPAIGN NOTEBOOK: An obscure "gold clause" has led to a gold mine for the Republican National Committee, perhaps thanks to Republican U.S. Sen. D.M. "Lauch" Faircloth. Conseco, an Indiana insurance company that won a huge windfall from Faircloth, was the biggest giver to the GOP in March -- $400,000 by the company and its chairman, Stephen Hillbert. Some of that money could go to Faircloth's campaign. He authored an obscure amendment, involving gold clauses, that essentially kept Conseco's rent for an Iowa office building at 1933 prices (CHARLOTTE OBSERVER, 5/3). ...

Netking

(08/01/2001; 20:40:05 MDT - Msg ID: 58926)

Auspec

Sir Auspec, after seeing what you had Putin down I now realise that funny looking chap is YOU, phew that's a relief!

The next excerpt should be good one yes, FOA says ". . . Next time I will discuss; what one should realy expect to see when all paper burns; and how close political events are saying we are to that fire! . . ." I suspect our gold & silver will be prime assets yes given that scenario.

Chris Powell

(08/01/2001; 20:47:58 MDT - Msg ID: 58927)

South African gold mine strike averted at last minute

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/842South African gold mine strike averted at last
minute:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/842

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

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Black Blade

(08/01/2001; 21:41:14 MDT - Msg ID: 58928)

Forbes Body Count

http://www.forbes.com/2001/01/30/layoffs.html
Throwing more carcasses on the "Bone Pile." Many say that the "Bone Pile" will grow much higher this year and into the next.

Horatio

(08/01/2001; 22:31:07 MDT - Msg ID: 58929)

The RACE to the Bottom

Gold is sold in Dollars,but in S.A. its mined in RAND.In order to keep the mines open and avoid confiscation by the government it has been necessary to devalue the RAND everytime the gold price goes lower.Lower price = lower RAND.thus the race to the bottom.Evidently the bottom has been reached since now the miners can't live on the devalued RAND and demand higher wages.Higher wages =higher gold prices.The mine owners now know they have squeezed every bit of wages out of the miners and they have gotten all they are going to get.FRom here on out to survive ,it must be higher prices for them.The next thing to do is to sign long term wage contracts at fixed wages,before prices go up and the miners demand a piece of the action.Then the stage will be set for a price rise that flows right to the bottom line.
If wage costs are 50 %and they get a 10 % raise then the gold price must rise 5 % just to cover the new cost.
Things could get very interesting......

Netking

(08/01/2001; 22:39:24 MDT - Msg ID: 58930)

Ongoing destruction of the U.S.A. Dollar 1929-2000

http://civic.net/civic-values.archive/200103/msg00078.htmlSee how your purchasing power has changed over the last 70 years.

Black Blade

(08/01/2001; 22:44:56 MDT - Msg ID: 58931)

California business hit hard by electricity rate increase

http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=TOPST&ARTICLE_ID=110100
Snippit:

HOUSTON, Aug. 1 -- Recent electricity rate increases disproportionately affected California businesses compared to residential consumers and some businesses are being forced to shut down or scale back, said the California Manufacturers & Technology Association of Sacramento. After receiving the first electricity bill following the California Public Utility Commission mandated increases in June, many companies complained to the trade association their businesses face shutting down. The association has asked the legislature to correct the allocation of the rate increase imposed by the PUC. "The 3�/kw-hr rate increase shifted the costs from residential to business," said Jack Stewart, president of CMTA in a release. "Many businesses first month bills reflect rate increases of more than100% even up to 190%." Business complained they have borne the brunt of the rate hike to save consumers from huge rate increases. But that strategy will ultimately back fire on the consumer because layoffs will increase and communities will lose tax support, Stewart said.

The problem threatens to worsen if the legislature imposes the burden of servicing a multibillion bond issue to recover state power expenses on business. The trade association is lobbying the legislature to try to prevent making a bad situation worse.

Black Blade: The recession in The People's Republik of Kalifornia will only get worse as the redistribution of wealth accelerates. "Red" Davis's energy plan has so far plunged the state into a deepening recession. Now the tax payer will have bonds that must be serviced and ultimately repaid - read increased taxes. Increased costs are being passed on to the consumer in the form of higher prices and the economic recession has resulted in numerous layoffs with many more to come. In spite of knowing this day would come, the Grasshoppers refused to prepare. "�and they danced, sang, and played all summer�"

Time to prepare with PM portfolio insurance as this plague (energy crisis and recession) is spreading across the land.

BTW, tonight the House voted down a waiver for California's EPA mandated reformulated fuel standards. I guess the down-winders won't have to choke on the smog spewing from the Grasshoppers tail pipes as they sit hours on end on choked highways.

Black Blade

(08/01/2001; 23:14:15 MDT - Msg ID: 58932)

House Passes Energy Exploration in ANWR

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/010801/hsw031.html
Snippit:

Bi-Partisan Support Shifts Momentum to Senate

WASHINGTON, Aug. 1 /PRNewswire/ -- Advocates of exploration for new American sources of energy were encouraged today by strong support in the House as legislation passed that would allow for oil and gas exploration in a small portion of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). Despite predictions that ANWR would fail, the victory was credited to broad support from labor, energy users and Native Alaskans.

``We can give America the energy resources it needs without disturbing our environment,'' said Al Adams, an Inupiat Eskimo and former State Senator from Alaska. ``It is part of our heritage to share the resources of the land and to preserve the environment and wildlife for future generations.'' According to surveys, more than 75 percent of Alaskans support oil and gas exploration and production. Money from exploration would bring badly needed infrastructure and educational opportunities to people living in remote areas.

Black Blade: It is The AFL-CIO and especially the Teamsters break rank with the Dems and throw support to drilling in ANWR. The potential for another Prudhoe Bay sized filed exists. However, the racist environmental extremists feel that they know better than native Alaskans. I have discussed "Environmental Racism" in the past as practiced by "Club Sierra" and other organizations. The passage of the Energy Bill and ANWR drilling legislation is too late to reverse the severity of the global recession. Even the Unions see the writing on the wall. Now to the Senate.

Sierra Madre

(08/01/2001; 23:19:55 MDT - Msg ID: 58933)

Why call your enemy ugly names?

OK, so you consider President Saddam Hussein of Iraq your enemy. Why call him "the Butcher of Baghdad"? President Bush, Sr., always referred to President Saddam Hussein as "Saddam"; this seemed to me a lack of statesmanship; especially after his Ambassadoress to Iraq practically enticed Saddam Hussein into attacking Kuwait.

A man can be your deadly enemy, and you can be his deadly enemy, but still refrain from silly and demeaning (to the person doing it) name-calling.

For that matter, when it comes to Butchery, Colin Powell has some merit. Also Harry S. Truman.

Name-calling only reveals the weakness of the one calling names.

Thanks for reading.

Sierra.

Sierra Madre

(08/01/2001; 23:22:33 MDT - Msg ID: 58934)

Previous post for MarkeTalk, re post No. 58921

Sorry I did not identify the poster I was addressing.

Good night to all!

Sierra

Black Blade

(08/02/2001; 00:30:49 MDT - Msg ID: 58935)

Morgan Stanley's Meeker Named in Lawsuits

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010801/business_financial_morganstanley_meeker_.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Mary Meeker, the Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MWD) analyst once dubbed ``Queen of the Internet'' for her bullish reports on the sector, was named as a defendant in a pair of lawsuits on Wednesday alleging she provided biased research on eBay Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. The lawsuits come amid increasing scrutiny of Wall Street analysts from investors, regulators, and politicians. Analysts at nine major unnamed brokerage firms used their positions to profit from the companies they covered, acting Securities and Exchange Commission Chairwoman Laura Unger told Congress on Tuesday.

Black Blade: Another "Pied Piper" to face the music. "Pied Piper" Henry Blogett of Merrill Lynch already paid the price settling a lawsuit for similar antics. Maybe "Pied Piper" Abby Joseph Cohen of Goldman Sachs could be next on the Hit List. Most of these Dot.Coms - Dot.Bombs - Dot.Gones have dropped off the radar screen and have disappeared - yet gold still shines.
View Yesterday's Discussion.

Black Blade

(08/02/2001; 00:55:04 MDT - Msg ID: 58936)

California Trading

http://www.dismal.com/thoughts/article.asp?aid=1313
Snippit:

In an attempt to solve the state's electricity crisis, California has ventured into the business of providing energy to consumers. In so doing, the state has vastly expanded its role in the electric utility industry. But there is no reason why state politicians and regulators should be better adapted to running the state's utilities than the private sector, which has accumulated the skills and expertise needed to run successful energy trading operations. By contrast, the state's involvement to date will likely cost California ratepayers and taxpayers billions of dollars.

Now, several months later, to the embarrassment of state officials, the state's contracts don't look very attractive. Wholesale electricity prices have been falling, not rising, this summer, as demand has fallen below forecasts. Part of the drop in demand is simply good luck, due to moderate summer temperatures. But at least part of the drop in demand should have been anticipated by state officials after the state's Public Utilities Commission put through rate increases this past spring, even though their design was flawed and their implementation halfhearted. The combined effect of these two factors has left demand for electricity substantially below last year's levels. This has put the state in the almost unimaginable position of having a surplus of electricity, which it must now sell at prices that are well below the state's contracted rates. Demand may yet rebound if temperatures in the West rise.

Black Blade: I must admit, Buy high - Sell Low doesn't sound like much of a plan.

Netking

(08/02/2001; 01:55:44 MDT - Msg ID: 58937)

Chances high for a major military explosion in the Middle East.

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=23878(Regardless of our personal viewpoints of the difficult situation unfolding, these events could clearly affect not only the M/East & greater regional stability but also the financial, commodity & PM markets in a significant manner and are hence worthy of consideration - Netking)
-----------------------------------------------------------

STRATFOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE:(link copied in part)

"After decades of stalemated diplomacy and months of renewed violence, the Sharon government appears ready to launch a massive blow against the Palestinian political infrastructure.

The strike will aim to decapitate the Palestinian leadership, destroy key facilities and isolate the Palestinian community. In the absence of external constraints from the United States and regional neighbors, Israel may consider expanding this option to Syria and Iraq as well"

Since it seized the West Bank in 1967, Israel has had three options for dealing with the Palestinian people and territory it controls:

1/The first was to attempt a negotiated settlement such as the Oslo peace accords.

2/The second was to accept the ongoing stalemate and low-intensity conflict.

3/The third option was to escalate the conflict and break out of the gridlock by destroying the Palestinian movement once and for all.

Events over the past few weeks clearly indicate the current Israeli government has chosen the third option and is now in the process of preparing to implement it. Given the Israeli view that the Palestinian leadership is carefully coordinating anti-Israeli operations, the Sharon strategy will be to shatter that capability.

The third option will involve a massive military blow aimed at decapitating the Palestinian leadership, destroying key military infrastructure and communications facilities, and isolating the Palestinian community. It also will involve the occupation and destruction of certain political facilities and the capture, death or exile of the political elite.

And in the absence of external constraints against Israel by the United States and regional neighbors, there is a chance Israel may apply this option to two other longstanding problems: Syrian control over Lebanon and the potential Iraqi military threat to Israel. International condemnation, including the potential for sanctions, will follow any Israeli action. From Israel's standpoint, a broader strike would carry minimal additional cost.

Once the third option is chosen, a broader logic takes over. Since there is little doubt that taking out the Palestinian Authority will increase the risk of conflict with Iraq and Syria, this option might well lead to a decisive strike at a time of Israel's choosing against these two adversaries. From Israel's point of view, now is much better than later.

Several factors stemming from the Six-Day War in 1967 are driving Israel toward such a massive military option . . . .

Belgian

(08/02/2001; 03:59:17 MDT - Msg ID: 58938)

War

A Middle East war is guarantee for higher oil prices and refuge into the dollar...at the time that the Euro presents itself as an alternative. Question : Do "they" want a war per se, as the usual excuse for...so many unsolvable problems ? Will this war (eventually) be different than desert storm and i.o.w. have minimal impact on POG ?
What do you think Sir, King of the Net ?

South African miners need a 5% Rand (permanent) depreciation or a 5% POG increase (282$) or have to deplete the rich ore-bodies (+ 8 gram/ton) at a faster rate.
The courageous B. Swaenepoel (Harmony) is pinpointing the miners "fragmentation", again ! Divide and Rule ! Good luck to you miners.

Note : about the articles from the controversial (?) Lyndon Larouche (Russia) : Have they been reading Trail Guide and are they inspired or the other way around ?

Belgian

(08/02/2001; 05:52:09 MDT - Msg ID: 58939)

Marketing Gold ?

The following might seem a bit " bizar ", but nevertheless, I'll probably learn something. OK, here we go.

Suppose we have a budget of 55 milion $ confetti and we are in the business of selling and promoting " Gold ". You certainly all know organisations like this (hummm).
It is no secret that on this boiling globe, there are quite some wealthy chaps hanging around. Succesfull entrepeneurs of all kinds and sizes. These people can be selected and contacted in a formal way. Probably, most of them, never considered any investment in physical gold in their possesion. What would it cost to find out how these wealthy persons are to be reached and what would be the cost of establishing an educative contact ? You all must surely feel me coming...

With physical gold at the present valuation and speculating that succesfull entrepreneurs do understand sound reasoning about risk/reward theories...isn't here a high probability, available, for a succesfull marketing on investment gold ?

Here on CPM, we have the prototype of how " Gold Investment Guidance " should be done. Why can't the same principle be used on a broader scale for non internauts ?
As dwarfs, we are fostering our ounce coins. A lot of mini Giants could do the same with Kilograms. I've already made a prototype math on the subject with no reaction on it.
I'm still asking myself what is seemingly wrong with such an initiative.

Once a global gold investor clientele is established, further guidance, trough appropiate contact, can establish
a regulating mechanism on POG. I would suggest to Gold Promotors and guiders to radically change most of the common perceptions (the speculative ones)about Gold and start with some new fundamentals on physical gold investment.

Toughts are appreciated./ Thanks

Black Blade

(08/02/2001; 06:49:46 MDT - Msg ID: 58940)

IT'S MEEKER'S TURN

http://www.nypost.com/business/36481.htm
Snippit:

Mary - you're up next. Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co.'s star Internet analyst is in even more hot water. A class action suit on behalf of Amazon and eBay shareholders - two bubble stocks on which she was bullish for years - was filed yesterday by Philadelphia law firm Schiffrin & Barroway. The suit names Meeker and her firm and alleges she pumped up Internet stocks so that her company could land lucrative underwriting gigs. Joe Schmo investors purchased stock at inflated prices from Aug. 1, 1998 through Jan. 22, 2001, thanks to Morgan Stanley not disclosing all the facts, said the suit.

Black Blade: Another "Pied Piper" of Wall Street could go down hard for leading the lemmings astray.

Max Rabbitz

(08/02/2001; 07:22:19 MDT - Msg ID: 58941)

Leigh...Krugerrands with no monetary unit

I wasn't around here a year and a half ago but I'd bet your memory is good. I came across a related idea in Griffin's "The Creature from Jekyll Island" in the chapter on U.S. monetary history. The U.S. started with a silver dollar standard. In 1792 a bimetallic standard was begun at a ratio of 15:1 gold to silver. However, soon gold came to be more valuable than silver in the market and the gold coins disappeared from use. Griffin stated that it would have been better to not put a denomination on the gold coins and let them float at the market rate. I suspect this was Trail Guides point about the Krugerrand rather than confiscation risk although I do recall him stating that by owning pre 1933 coins he would be a step ahead of the rest. Perhaps he can elucidate.

escapethematrix

(08/02/2001; 08:05:51 MDT - Msg ID: 58942)

ECB doesn't "blink".....UK does.............

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topsum&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AO2lLxhOeQmFuayBvsnippets:

The European Central Bank left its main lending rate at 4.5 percent at a separate meeting today. Analysts said ECB policy makers are likely to trim the benchmark refinancing rate by a quarter point before the end of the year. The ECB has pared rates once this year, by a quarter point on May 10.

UK: The move suggests policy makers are increasingly concerned about manufacturing, which contracted for a fifth straight month in July. Invensys Plc, a factory-controls maker, Marconi Plc, the country's biggest phone-equipment company, and steelmaker Corus Group Plc are eliminating a combined 20,000 jobs

For the UK, it's further proof that it's either "inflate or die"....Or join the Euro.

escapethematrix

(08/02/2001; 08:13:41 MDT - Msg ID: 58943)

Yeah, ..that "Strong Dollar Policy" sure is great :)............

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AO2jSuhRaVS5TLiBDsnippet:

New York, Aug. 2 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. companies had their biggest drop in quarterly profits in 10 years as demand for products ranging from chemicals to computer equipment plunged. Analysts forecast that earnings will decline this quarter.
``The numbers are just hideous,'' said Maureen Allyn, chief economist at Zurich Scudder Investments, which manages $345 billion. ``Some of these companies have 30 percent lower sales. There's not an executive on the planet that can protect profit from that.''

uponroof

(08/02/2001; 09:09:38 MDT - Msg ID: 58945)

escapethematrix (8/2/01; 08:05:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 58942)

Could this be a set up?Recieved an e-mail from Ed Bugos today regarding rate cuts. Ed is not asleep despite the quiet on all fronts. You may remember Mr. Bugos from his occasional work with GATA and writings at LeMet.
***********************************************************
Good morning,

A bull raid is an unexpected attack by the bullish forces, aka Greenspan's bunch. There has been silence on the currency front, not even a peep at the last G7 meeting of finance ministers.

Since then, certain evolving relationships appear to be setting up for a double back-to-back interest rate cut, first by the ECB, and then by the Fed. This could happen as soon as today, or as late as next thursday, but it has to happen fast, for the ideal conditions are not likely to sit around for too too long.

Thus, we see that there remains a risk to our prognosis for a Dow 7000 objective, but the risk can be summed up as an interuption ;-)

We just posted this week's GIC for subscribers on the members page at our website:

www.goldenbar.com/

If you haven't subscribed to the goldenbar report, then you haven't taken advantage of our promise to keep you ahead of the curve.

Have a very nice day,
Ed Bugos
***********************************************************

Hummmmmmm. A "double back-to-back interest rate cut"? Global measures to combat the strong dollar 'crisis'? An international walk down of sorts? Hummmmmmmm.

Buena Fe

(08/02/2001; 09:40:08 MDT - Msg ID: 58946)

Setup speculations

The financial press/FED/TREA. et al has been massaging perceptions for weeks now that an interest rate cut by a CB is bullish for the underlying currency, in anticipation of the next FED rate cut which will coincide with a moment of market/bond/$ weakness and then huge press/futures intervention to ramp/reverse these components back to uptrends.

The game continues until the end.

escapethematrix

(08/02/2001; 09:54:34 MDT - Msg ID: 58947)

uponroof........RE: Bugos # 58945

I remember TG saying��Anything is possible,just not probable." I have read some of Mr.B's work, and respect his opinion, but to me, this seems like a real long-shot. I don't think that in general many of these analysts see the "really big" picture as far as what the real motives in the the Euro/Dollar currency war are, or that it's even going on.

In "Political Gold", TG stated:
"However, all of this positioning has left out, this time, one important, almost unthinkable question; what if current trends are moving away from using our dollar reserve system?" I'm not sure Mr. B. gives this any consideration.
Unless there are some behind the scenes concessions going on between the Fed and ECB, I cannot picture them (ECB) acting in such a manner.

The bottom line is that events are giving shape to "A ghostly illusion that 'noone" could see from afar", but that we at USAGOLD, can follow together thanks to the extraordinary work of FOA, Another, Randy and MK.

Thanks for all your hard work TG� I can't wait to see what's next.

CoBra(too)

(08/02/2001; 10:03:55 MDT - Msg ID: 58948)

Is The Bottom in for POG?

Bill buckler from the "Privateer fame certainly thinks so.
A snippet from his weekly gold market update:

'The entire present situation is absolutely "tailor-made" for a "resuscitation", not of the Dollar or of economic "growth", but of the Gold price - IN U.S. DOLLARS - the ONE currency against which Gold has not - YET - recovered.

The Genoa G-8 Summit is now over, with nothing having been said by any of the participants about anything which is relevant to the present global financial situation. The U.S. and the world waits for August 21 - when the FOMC meets again and the world gets its next interest rate fix from Mr Greenspan and the Fed. In $US terms, Gold is still less than 6% above the 20 year lows it set in September 1999 and challenged in April 2001.

And now, there are DEFINITE signs that "paper Gold holders" on the COMEX are giving up in despair and liquidating long positions. The situation is "safe" with TWO strong support areas within $US 10 of the present spot future Gold price. It is also "primed" for an upside move, with Gold open interest at levels not seen for more than eight years. The period leading up to Labor Day, during which U.S. markets have suffered significant corrections in every year since 1997, is going to be FASCINATING. Stay tuned."

- regards cb2

Old Yeller

(08/02/2001; 10:19:26 MDT - Msg ID: 58949)

Japan;good for a few surprises?

http://www.prudentbear.com/guest2.htm
Some interesting comments here about some old time favorites,hedge funds and their renewed popularity,CDOs,commercial property and the GSEs.Japan holds the most intrigue,though,yen is now strengthening,the outcome may differ from what is the general consensus on Wall St.The last three paragraphs hold some troubling implications for king dollar.

CoBra(too)

(08/02/2001; 10:32:46 MDT - Msg ID: 58950)

POO up to 27.85 that's 1.08 $/bbl!

What's up, Sir Black Blade? I'm sure you would know the reason behind this move.

Thanks in advance - cb2

Sierra Madre

(08/02/2001; 10:55:58 MDT - Msg ID: 58951)

Belgian...your post 58939..."promote gold".

Sir Belgian:

I think the big boys around the world, especially outside the U.S., are well aware of gold. They are, I believe, buying it quietly. Not all of them, but among those "big boys" there are some intelligent people.

What you are proposing sounds like a war against the Anglo American financial establishment, which is, it seems to me, at the center of the war on gold. It is virtually impossible to marshall forces against that Establishment.

But, what's the hurry? As long as that Establishment is giving gold away, well, take advantage of the fact. The "big boys" are merrily making paper money profits, a small portion of which, I do not doubt, are going into gold. But these "big boys" are no theoreticians. They are enthralled with visions of billions upon billions - of what? Paper nothings - but they are entrepreneurs, not theoreticians. They are working on the here and now, on "money in the bank" (they do not stop to question the validity of that "money in the bank"; that's idle speculation, to them).

It is next to impossible to tear these businessmen away from their projects, into which they have put their hearts and souls. All the same, some of these men are buying gold, especially those outside the US.

There is no way to stop this war on gold. The only thing that will end it, is a dramatic change in world circumstances; a war, or a runaway inflation or runaway deflation. The inflation or deflation which is to come, will, in absence of war, provide the inevitable detonator.

Then all those very practical businessmen will plunge into hard assets like gold or silver, or whatever they can find next best. But not before. They play today's game until it's over.

In a very real way, this is barbarism. As G.K. Chesterton said (I paraphrase): "The preference for the temporary over the permanent is the hallmark of barbarism".

Sierra

Yukon

(08/02/2001; 10:56:28 MDT - Msg ID: 58952)

"Gold!", premieres Aug. 21-24

For those looking to further their education of gold, the History Channel will be presenting a four part mini-series, Gold!. In will be aired in four 1 hour segments beginning August 21 and ending Aug.24. Though I seriously doubt it will include any talk of the price manipulation and the Fed/Treas./ESF involvement, nor any of the details about the GATA lawsuit, it should nevertheless be entertaining and somewhat insightful, especially with respect to the history of gold.

From the cover story of Numismatic News, July 17 issue, "It will open with an installment titled "The Gold Wars," about conflicts that arose over searches for and discoveries of the yellow metal." It then will treat the themes of "Gold Fever," "The Stuff of Dreams," and "Cold Hard Cash."

"Numismatics will likely get prime coverage in the "Cold Hard Cash" segment on Aug. 24, which will touch upon coinage issues from 550B.C. through the centuries to present day.

The History Channel will broadcast Gold! simultaneously over its global network, including 60 countries and all its joint ventures and affiliates, each portion airing at 9 p.m. Eastern and Pacific time Aug.21-24."

To Tree In Forest and Leigh: The post on The Commercial Credit System can be found here on the forum archives. The date of the original post was 4/22/01 and the message number is 52341.

TreeInForst: I have read all of your posts to me about the the gold recall of 1933. Unfortuneately, the posts still do not answer the question of where does it say in the Constitution that the President has the power to issue an Executive Order that has enforcement and jurisdiction over the people of the fifty states. This power, IMHO, seems like the equivalent of a dictator ruling by decree in a Communist/Socialist government. FDR states his authority as amended Acts of Congress, yet Acts are to be made in pursuance thereof (Article VI). So by my understanding, which is taking the words in the Constitution for face value, not only was the EO unconstitutional, but so were the Acts that FDR cites for authority due to the clear violation of Article I, Section 10.

Also, has any challenge to this EO ever been brought before the Supreme Court? For if not, then the action would stand as Constitutional until someone brought a case before the Supreme Court, as they would have no reason to make a ruling until such event occured. Thoughts anyone?

Viva Liberty!

Yukon

Yukon

(08/02/2001; 11:11:32 MDT - Msg ID: 58953)

Gold!

www.HistoryChannel.com/goldForgot to post the url for the upcoming series Gold! It has a neat trailer including: "It has caused Wars. It has Financed Empires. Limited Supply. Insatiable Demand."

Sounds like a winner to me... just don't tell WGC. They may get some good ideas. =)

And don't forget to visit CPM when your ready to add to your holdings.

Sierra Madre

(08/02/2001; 11:24:33 MDT - Msg ID: 58954)

As my son says....

"If we keep going on the path we are going, we are going to arrive where we are going".

Can't argue with that!

Saludos from Sierra Madre

site steward

(08/02/2001; 11:43:41 MDT - Msg ID: 58955)

Temporary reserves for U.S. banking system

The Fed added $6.75 billion in today's open market operations -- $2 billion via 28-day repurchase agreements, $4.75 billion with overnight repos.

To support policy?? The market in federal funds was trading precisely at the FOMC target rate. You do the math.

R

Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD

(08/02/2001; 11:47:50 MDT - Msg ID: 58956)

Hard assets... Easy access!

http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/liberty.html

They make new BULLION every day.

They stopped making these BEAUTIES long ago.

A fixed supply has its advantages.

Call Centennial to discuss the investment strategy that's right for you.

Gold Trail Update

(08/02/2001; 12:52:56 MDT - Msg ID: 58957)

The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated

The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.

Netking

(08/02/2001; 13:55:57 MDT - Msg ID: 58958)

Belgian & CoBra(too)

http://www.idf.il/english/news/graphEat.stmSir Belgian:> A Middle East war is guarantee for higher oil prices and refuge into the dollar...at the time that the Euro presents itself as an alternative. Question : Do "they" want a war per se, as the usual excuse for...so many unsolvable problems ? Will this war (eventually) be different than desert storm and i.o.w. have minimal impact on POG ? What do you think Sir

Netking:> How's THE land of fine chocolate! The first part is harder to perceive. I would expect the POO (per comment to CB2 below)to go upwards, further. The POG would also move(safe haven), & the Euro up against the USD(IMVHO). The second question, lets hope it's a limited action(assuming it happens). Israel will make the calculations & will act against international opinion if the perceived reward risk ratio is worth it for them. They acted against Frances wishes many years ago when France was their chaperone, it proved worth it for them at the time, and with the guardian role shifting after that conflict to the USA, where it has remained since. The USA is "quiet", maybe it's gotta happen(?), if so It'll be quick & surgical, aka 1967?
-----------------------------------------------------------
CoBra(too)(58950)
POO up to 27.85 that's 1.08 $/bbl!
What's up?

Netking: A good barometer for perceived risk (per above) may be one/the answer.

Leigh

(08/02/2001; 15:13:24 MDT - Msg ID: 58959)

Trail Guide

Thank you for answering my question!

I keep imagining ANOTHER at the mountain lodge at the top of the gold trail, lounging on the breezy porch and watching us westerners hiking down below.

Belgian

(08/02/2001; 16:05:45 MDT - Msg ID: 58960)

@ Sierra Madre

Thank you Sir, for the response and take care of that wise son of yours.

site steward

(08/02/2001; 16:18:44 MDT - Msg ID: 58961)

Falling behind by holding dollars -- a Must Read

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/aarontaskfree/1509179.htmlFrom this article by Aaron Task

HEADLINE: Waving the Caution Flag in the Race to Weaken the Dollar

--- "A fall in the dollar would have inflationary implications for us, which would diminish the latitude the Fed has in cutting interest rates," said Paul Kasriel, chief U.S. economist at Northern Trust Co. in Chicago.
[...]
At 3.75%, the fed funds rate is just 55 basis points above the year-over-year rise in the CPI through June. That's the lowest inflation-adjusted rate among major global economies, Kasriel noted, but the Fed has indicated its willingness to push the funds rate below the inflation rate. "To be the world's banker and to tell people you may not give them a positive inflation-adjusted return wouldn't seem to me to inspire confidence," the economist said.---

Further, here's a sobering summary of affairs by John Mesrobian, an analyst at Constantinople Advisors. He is quoted as saying:

"We strongly feel once the dollar is seen sliding -- when everyone becomes aware of it -- [investors] are going to run for the door [and] many have their track shoes on. The U.S. dollar is in a bubble stage, just like the Nasdaq -- and it will fall just like the Nasdaq."

see the full article at the URL given above

If some people "have their track shoes on" already, have you yourself taken steps to establish a close working relationship with helpful gold brokers at Centennial yet? According to this article, your delay is at sizeable risk.

Belgian

(08/02/2001; 16:32:32 MDT - Msg ID: 58962)

@ Netking

Thanks Sir, but I'm a bit worried about the possibility of " Quick and Surgical " ! From my Aussi bro, I got confirmation that UN troops are on stand by in the Jordanian desert. Something serious is brewing. POO move today was significant ( + 7,5%). Shell topman admitted that they impossibly can make any price-range projections on crude, already for quite some time now. Evidence to me that there is much more going on than the balancing of offer/demand, wich is more or less predictable for the top pros. Oil wants to value the dollar with its pricing per barril. Will cee.

Solomon Weaver

(08/02/2001; 16:41:00 MDT - Msg ID: 58963)

Bugos on Bogus

There was some discussion here a few weeks ago about deflation vs. inflation....and the ensuing problem of even defining them....

The following link goes to an article by Ed Bugos which is an interesting read on this topic.....he compares as well the relative price of various currencies and indexes against gold prices.

http://www.prudentbear.com/guest.htm

This next link is in the middle of the first and is called No SafeHaven.

http://www.goldenbar.com/GIC%20Weekly%20Outlook/GIC100900.htm

poor old solomon

site steward

(08/02/2001; 16:44:25 MDT - Msg ID: 58964)

Another Must Read -- HEADLINE: The Dollar's Days Are Numbered

http://www.thestreet.com/comment/detox/1499337.htmlBy Peter Eavis

---At the moment, the foreign exchange market likes the fact that the Fed is opening the monetary floodgates ... It may just be that it thinks Greenspan is more likely to cut rates again, an act that has buoyed the prices of U.S. bonds, which foreigners have been buying ... chiefly based on this interest-rate gamble. After all, why would anyone buy paper of U.S. corporations based on their (truly appalling) long-term fundamentals?---

---So why a dollar crash sooner rather than later? Comparative interest rates give some strong clues. ... real interest rates in the U.S. are just 0.5%, using an inflation rate of 3.25%, compared with 1.4% in euroland. Even Japan's real rate is higher -- at 0.63%. ... Using the 4.5% inflation rate shown most recently by the Cleveland Fed's Consumer Price Index, real rates in the U.S. are actually negative to the tune of 0.75%. People are losing money just by holding dollars. How long can that last?---

Get out while the getting is good. Don't optimistically hold dollars all the way down the same way some investors optimistically held their tech stocks all the way down to bankruptcy. There is no shame in diversifying your portfolio into the hard asset WEALTH of gold. If fact, it's the prudent thing to do. Make a commitment to yourself to call Centennial before the week ends. Gold prices remain quite attractive and accessible near 22-year lows.

wolf

(08/02/2001; 16:51:02 MDT - Msg ID: 58965)

Argentina

Argentina biggest problem is the rigidity of its exchange-rate peg and the strength of the Dollar. In a largely dollarised economy a devaluation will cause a bust. A default on their external debts mostly sold as bonds to foreign investor will send shudders of fear through the financial markets.
A even tighter fiscal policy to ward off default and devaluation is very unpopular and will lead to a taxpayer strike, as the taxes are much to high for the near non-existence of public services in this country, ... or get the best to vote with their feet and leave the country for good, as many younger people did in recent times.

Gold Trail Update

(08/02/2001; 17:31:53 MDT - Msg ID: 58966)

The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated

The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.

Black Blade

(08/02/2001; 18:02:41 MDT - Msg ID: 58967)

The very real energy crisis - Demand for power is soaring quickly, while expanding supply can take years. That means trouble.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/articles/invest/extra/7575.asp
Snippit:

How about oil capacity?

"In the Middle East we've added one substantial field in 20 years. It is just about to reach peak capacity of 500,000 barrels a day. But that's only a small percentage of the 75 million barrels a day that are consumed. In the Middle East some data is now emerging that the major fields are in decline. "The non-OPEC oil supply grew by only 2 million barrels a day through the '90s. That probably happened because the (original) production base is only 60% of what it was. We've been running just to stay in place. In natural gas we've been producing flat-out, but only increased production by 1% or 2%.

"We're on the decline curve," Simmons said, referring to the inevitable depletion of oil production from existing oil fields. Ironically, even if a valve could be turned in the Middle East, our energy problems would not be solved. We'd need new ships to transport it and new refineries to crack it. Similarly, while small turbine producers like Calpine may deliver dozens of small electric generators in the next two years, the increased demand for natural gas to run the turbines may exhaust gas supplies. Basically, there is no slack anywhere because we missed a full decade of investment in new capacity.

Black Blade: This little snippit is part of a very good article on declining oil and natural gas by Matt Simmons of Simmons and Co. Intl. This is what I and a few others in the natural resources industries have been saying for some time now. It is close to crunch time. Oil is a problem, however, natural gas is the real sleeper that will drive the energy crisis. Every new power plant and proposed power plant is NG-fired and as outlined above - no significant gain in production. Interesting that the racist environmentalists oppose the Artic Drilling proposal in a virtual tundra wasteland. It is quite obvious that aside from the racist implications it is also for political mileage at the expense of the public at large. It is too late to stave off the deepening recession, however, we here have prepared for the inevitable economic collapse with hard asset purchases like gold, hopefully getting our financial houses in order, and selective (defensive) investments. The "Perfect Storm" in energy is growing and a "Golden Lifeboat" is in everyone's best interest. Think energy doesn't matter? Read this article.

Black Blade

(08/02/2001; 18:07:11 MDT - Msg ID: 58968)

RE: CB2 - Higher Oil Prices

There has been speculation that there will be another drawdown on crude stocks when the API reports this Tuesday. This is a bit of a delayed reaction. Perhaps the House passage of the Artic Drilling Bill may have brought out a few investors who now realize that there is a real energy crisis. Add to this the real summer vacation season begins in August and some speculators are trying to front run the expected price move. Add to this a tropical storm approaching the gulf and some ME tensions and it adds up to higher Hydrocarbon prices. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(08/02/2001; 18:13:27 MDT - Msg ID: 58969)

Storm on track to hit U.S. Gulf oil/gas fields

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010802/n0268321.html
Snippit:

HOUSTON, Aug 2 (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Barry formed off Florida's western coast on Thursday and meteorologists said it could become a hurricane as it churns its way through the oil and natural gas fields of the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days.

National Hurricane Center forecasters said the storm was most likely to make landfall on Sunday in Louisiana where it could pose a threat to the state's large oil refining industry. Oil companies with offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico said on Thursday they had already taken steps to protect workers by moving them onshore until the storm passes but they added that they had not yet suspended any oil or gas production.

The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) said it was operating normally on Thursday but was keeping a close watch on Barry. LOOP is the only port in the United States capable of offloading deep draft tankers known as Ultra Large Crude Carriers (ULCCs) and Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs).

Black Blade: With high nearly maxed out refinery utilization rates, any refinery slowdown/shutdown will pressure prices. Another kind of "Perfect Storm?"

site steward

(08/02/2001; 19:41:31 MDT - Msg ID: 58970)

Chancellor Brown works for a weaker(?) pound, IMF sends warning

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Print/0,3858,4233065,00.htmlIf limited to playing within "the rules", it's allowable to weaken a currency through easy monetary policy (e.g., lower interest rates on borrowing), but not through deficit spending by the government.

"(T)he EU's stability and growth pact sets a strict 3% limit to deficits and encourages member states to balance their budgets unless recession threatens."

R

Gold Trail Update

(08/02/2001; 21:35:34 MDT - Msg ID: 58971)

The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated

The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.

Black Blade

(08/04/2001; 00:45:00 MDT - Msg ID: 59026)

Bank: Tuesday US Data Could Spark Selloff

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010803/bs/markets_crash_dresdner_dc_2.html

Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - U.S. productivity data due out on Tuesday could shatter the belief in a ``new paradigm'' economy of high growth and low inflation, triggering a stock market crash, a leading investment bank has predicted. Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein said in a note to clients that revisions included with second quarter productivity numbers will revise away the ``productivity miracle'' of recent years, cited has a major factor in the bull market of the 1990's. ``Investing in the U.S. miracle will in retrospect be seen as a sick joke. The markets will be forced to confront this harsh reality on August 7,'' DrKW Global Equity Strategist Albert Edwards wrote. ``Make a date in your diary! The U.S. 'new paradigm' will then be officially revised away! The risks of an equity crash are high.''

Black Blade: Stock Market Crash scheduled for August 7, 2001? Hmmm� I'll mark it in my appointment book.

View Yesterday's Discussion.

Black Blade

(08/04/2001; 01:05:04 MDT - Msg ID: 59027)

IMF Prepares to Accelerate $1.2B Loan to Argentina, Establish $15B Credit Line for Brazil

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/010803/bush_argentina_7.htmlIMF to Accelerate Loan for Argentina

Snippit:

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The International Monetary Fund announced Friday that it was prepared to accelerate a $1.2 billion loan to Argentina and establish a $15 billion line of emergency credit for Brazil in an effort to keep economic troubles in the two South American nations from spreading.

Black Blade: As late as last week the IMF claimed that they would not get involved.

Belgian

(08/04/2001; 04:38:30 MDT - Msg ID: 59028)

Rich/Netking/Auspec/Cavan Man

Indeed Good Knights...if there are some very strange, fundamental anomalies, not easely to be explained...we can always blame it on the unknown effects of the massive, overwhelming derivatives ! We and many others are surely underestimating the devastating effect of these derivatives on the natural proces of valuations ! I've always called it "speculative mania" but have been corrected by TG into rightout naming it "Gambling". The temporary periods of
"price containment", (Rich) are probably the moments that the gamblers are stucked and the game is immobilized, waiting for some new blood.

And still, there are fresh, new gambling-kamikazes waiting to participate with large amounts of paper amunition, into this Roman arena. The lions are still hungry.

It is the absense of that natural valuation process, that is provoqing the periodical "burn-out" effect, experienced by less gambling participants. And indeed, it doesn't matter anymore, if this derivative mania is organised or the result of a trendy fashion. But trends do come and will go.

A TG reminder : much, yes very much "paper" will burn ! And
more important : Gold is there to be rightly valuated only once a generation ! This is not kind of paternalistic consolation, but my personal conviction as well. Analyse the characterial profile of Giants and conclude that they have ' Time " ! As dwarfs we lack this very important capacity (genetics=?).

Thanks and a sunny weekend to all.

Canuck

(08/04/2001; 05:44:33 MDT - Msg ID: 59029)

Debt cracks 5.7 trillion

http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm...on uptrend?

Gold Trail Update

(08/04/2001; 08:54:49 MDT - Msg ID: 59030)

The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated

The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.

darkhorse

(08/04/2001; 09:22:41 MDT - Msg ID: 59031)

Me thinks this puts a nastier look to things that come....

From the latest off the Gold Trail:

This time, investing in "the industry" or "business" that produces inflation hedging investments will not work enough to do the hedging job. From oil companies to coal companies,,,,,,,, home builders to lumber producers,,,,,,, carpet makers to gold miners: costs will outrun their ability to create an after tax profit.

ME: Has my understanding of English left me, or does this statement mean that not even our sacred gold stocks won't be enough?

canamami

(08/04/2001; 09:32:06 MDT - Msg ID: 59032)

Why All the Excitement re Russian Gold Policy?

Gold coins are legal tender in the US, also.

Now, it is unclear whether Russia intends to allow Russian#1 to force gold coin settlement on Russian#2, at the prevailing market price of gold, though it appears that is what was intended. Otherwise, the gold and silver coins could not force out the $US.

How does the Russian situation compare to that in the US?Well, one can force settlement (i.e., legal tender) in the US at the dollar face value of the gold coin. This is silly, as the market value of the gold greatly exceeds the face value. However, one could craft contracts which prescribe payment in gold, and a method to determine the day-to-day value of gold, as will be done in Russia. Thus, although in the US gold coin is not legal tender at market value, I submit US law now allows private parties to contract to permit gold coin settlement at prevailing market rates, or such other method of valuation as prescribed by contract.

Sierra Madre

(08/04/2001; 11:00:16 MDT - Msg ID: 59033)

How will the spell be broken?

What do we use paper profts, or paper income, or paper take-home pay for?

Not to buy paper cars, paper houses, paper food, paper clothes. We must have real cars, real houses, real food, real clothes!

Some people do believe that a part of their paper income should go into savings; but, they are satisfied with paper savings; savings that are based on paper values, paper purchasing power. These people are unaware of what they are doing. (They are about as safe in their savings, as if they were in a rowboat 50 yards upstream from Niagara Falls).

Just as we must have real cars, real houses, real food, real clothers - we must have real savings! Savings that have a physical existence, not just a numerical existence.

The human race decided long ago, that the best physical embodiment of savings is: precious metals. But that decision which stood for thousands of years, is under subversive attack; there is definitely a campaign to overthrow it.

At the moment, the human race appears to be suffering from mass hypnosis; humanity is under the spell of number: billions here, billions there, trillions now are spoken of. Companies can lose tens of billions. Eventually, the spell will be broken, and humanity will have to come to its senses: a trillion paper dollars will not fill an empty stomach; only a piece of bread will do that. (Weimar, 1923) Reason tells us this. However, metaphysics tells us something else:

The spell of number! Humanity appears to be possessed by the Devil. This may be closer to fact than most realize. And if that is so, as I believe, then humanity cannot save itself; only Divine Intervention can help us.

Thanks to USAGOLD for creating and maintaining this Forum!

To all readers: may you enjoy a peaceful and restful weekend.

Sierra Madre

auspec

(08/04/2001; 11:01:03 MDT - Msg ID: 59034)

Netking And The Silver Sops

Sounds like something on MTV, no?
Murray, per your recent post #59021: "Silver is a very, very small market {compared with gold}, however the short position and leasing is much greater for its size than that of gold or any other commodity we could compare it with."
I really have no reason to doubt this statement, but would love for you to expound on it a bit, especially in relationship to the sise of the silver market vs the gold market.
The gold short position is likely in the vicinity of 15,000 tons with CB overall holdings {as far as we know} at 32,000 tons. How does silver 'quantify' in relationship to these numbers?
Both David Morgan and Ted Butler do a great job of documenting and investigating the silver manipulation. The supply/demand numbers have been out of kilter and analyzed for all to see clearly since at least 1993 with Jim Blanchard's "Silver Bonanza" was put out. The manipulation was unapparent at that point, however. It is mostly guilt by association including the silver manip with the gold manip. Very grateful for the PE giving away their hand and letting us in on a major accumulation.
By the way, GATA has, at least informally, acknowledged that silver is being held down also. They are simply super-focused on gold, which is the path to success in any endeavor.
Timing? Who really knows how much above ground silver is left? I intend to be there to find out whether it is 1 month, 3 months, 3 years or even longer. I am staying super-focused in this field until the inevitable happens, they can stretch the rubber band as tight as they want!
Kind regards,
McAgspec

Pete

(08/04/2001; 11:44:53 MDT - Msg ID: 59035)

THE NWO REVISITED

What determines the POG? If it was determined solely by its industrial uses and beauty in jewelry, coins, etc., the POG would be minimal. IOW's, much less than the present presumed low price as production would more than meet the demands exerted for these uses.

The next question to ask is who benefits the most by owning gold? Is it the ordinary speculator(goldbug) hoping to make a killing in the market at some future date? If this was true he has been sorely disappointed for decades. Is it a consortium of large speculators that might desire to corner the market? I doubt that any consortium would be stupid enough to buck the power of governments and CB's. It would be more beneficial for them to cooperate.

AGAIN! IOW's! In spite of its usefulness and beauty, NO ONE NEEDS A SINGLE OUNCE OF GOLD. That is no one save the preeminent currency of the world......THE DOLLAR(chosen by the nwo). What is in the best economic interests of the USA(NWO champion) is what determines the POG.

And exactly what is in the best interests of the USA? A continuance in the strength of the dollar making it desirable for other governments to continue to hold and trade in dollars. But wait! How can the dollar maintain its strength in the face of ever increasing money supply and at the same time declining interest rates? An unexplainable conundrum that does not compute.....UNLESS!

The only logical conclusion is a conspiracy(consortium) of the worlds major governments, CB's AND OPEC that have agreed to keep the dollar as the worlds reserve currency of choice by cornering the worlds gold market. Otherwise why would OPEC, major governments, CB's, etc., continue to hold and trade in a currency that is being devalued constantly(at least outworldly) unless they knew something the ordinary investor doesn't?

THAT THE INCREASING MONETARY EXPANSION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY INCREASING GOLD RESERVES. THAT THE POG IS BEING BOUGHT AT BARGAIN BASEMENT PRICES DELIBERATELY HELD DOWN BY THE VARIOUS INSTRUMENTS AND TACTICS WE'RE ALL AWARE OF. WE NOW KNOW WHO IS BUYING, WHY THEY'RE BUYING AND FOR WHAT PURPOSE......THAT IS ANYONE WITH AN OUNCE OF COMMON SENSE.

THE POG WILL NOT RISE UNTIL THIS CONSPIRACY ACHIEVES ITS GOAL OF OWNING THE MAJORITY OF THE WORLDS GOLD BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW GROUND.

"HE WHO OWNS THE GOLD MAKES THE RULES AND OWNS THE WORLD" THE NWO.

THE SHADOW AKA PETE ;)

CoBra(too)

(08/04/2001; 11:59:00 MDT - Msg ID: 59036)

Re- Darkhorse - Hello to you - too

And yes, that is what TG/FOA/A said all along.

And as I've been a bit of renegade, luckily picking up some unencumbered gold in the ground, which has helped me lately to expand my physical - see ABX/HM as an example - I still feel with the kind of risk/reward and the right vehicle we'd be in a position to "petition" ;-) to 'claim' our right to the deep storage gold, we've paid to develop.

If not, bigot as it may seem, the mainstream media may scream (one future day, why didn't you say that the decay of honest reporting was just a delay of us catching up with the fact), that the BLS #'s are BS at best ... and we all know the rest!

And as TG sees the FRN as an apoplexy in waiting - I can't wait to see the POG starting out of the gate ... nonplussing, even the referee. And a referee is out there, with the euro cleaning the atmosphere of the hegemony of 'laissez faire' reserve money, backed by the same, a game which was called to explain! - Yes to explain, an refrain to the monetary printing game, to AG's shame as how to prolong a scam, after it was called a scheme all along.

Why, consider - and don't be bitter - that our US friends have been at the receiving end of this accumulation of debt trend.

I, personally, feel the US consumer, maxxed out as he seems, deserves by any means the fate the state has reserved for the sheeple, still people, who wanted to take care of their social responsibilities ... are now cheated out of their life-long labors and savings - since applying the same to an ongoing monetary game - where gold coin shavings, are akin to usury of an amateur.

... and any more day, keeping up the charade will erode the Grand Canyon ever more - to the FRN Death Valley - of yore.

Hope to see you - across the valley - with some gold in your pocket, forget Davy Crocket and decide for you -
Best cb2

R Powell

(08/04/2001; 13:50:25 MDT - Msg ID: 59037)

Solomon Weaver/ Silverbugs

Solomon posted a nice list of web sites (59022) yesterday for us to explore. Thanks Solomon!
Maybe there will be something there too, to rejuvenate auspec's Moxy and Mo-Jo. I must confess to feeling the same lately which usually leads me to ask for more/new info.
Jesse Livermore once said that it was his waiting that made him the big money. Being positioned and then waiting- patience. Imagine how Ted Butler must feel?
Hopefully the World Silver Survey 2001 will provide some insight into a good guesstimate of total silver stores (above ground) at a certain recent time/date. Then we subtract the monthly deficit until we reach the "That's all folks" date.
When feeling blue, remember that the silver leased and sold to hammer POS down game ends when above ground stores run out. Even "Deep storage silver" won't help the shorts when industrial purchasing agents call for just-in-time deliveries. Soon, I think.
Rich

Netking

(08/04/2001; 14:13:49 MDT - Msg ID: 59038)

Auspec / Chris Powell

McAuspec(59034)We aint got MTV here PTL!, the biggest challenge is getting my perfect daughters to let me use my own computer to access the USA gold forum!

Comparitive short positions: I'm trying to see what current numbers I can dig up on silver(pardon the pun). Analysts generally believe that in terms of short sold gold/silver as a percentage of "above ground" inventory on hand the silver short situation is certainly more acutely severe yes. This is the way we must measure I think rather than the physical size of the short itself.

The greater the percentage of the former, the more "violent" will be the market pricing response on the day of reckoning. I believe Rich's statement is correct, one day it'll be . . . "That's, that's, thats all folks!" I've got my ticket . . .
-----------------------------------------------------------
Chris Powell(GATA)- Sir, Goes GATA have any up to date information that you have come across in relationship to silver and manipulation thereof or of general interest to silver bugs? Thanks in advance.

Black Blade

(08/04/2001; 18:33:12 MDT - Msg ID: 59039)

Source Could Double U.S. Natgas Supplies

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010804/bs/bizenergy_ice_dc_1.html
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - There could be a backyard solution to the Bush administration's energy woes in the form of frozen natural gas deposits with the potential to double U.S. natural gas supplies, if consumers can just wait 50 years. The good news about the supplies, called methane hydrates or flammable ice, is that they are plentiful. The U.S. Geological Survey (news - web sites), the arm of the Interior Department charged with sizing up the country's oil and gas deposits, says hydrate supplies could be 300 times bigger than all other conventional U.S. natural gas supplies. The bad news? The bounty is frozen deep beneath the ocean or Arctic ice, and could take more than a generation to excavate. Methane is formed by the decomposition of vegetable matter and takes a solid form under extreme cold and pressure. ``It looks exactly like dirty ice,''

Black Blade: Eventually a potential solution source for our energy needs. However, when brought up to the surface, the reduced pressure and higher temperature makes the extraction problematic.

lamprey_65

(08/04/2001; 18:43:53 MDT - Msg ID: 59040)

Gold Weekly (because I only post about once a week now!)

I've learned to despise short term gold predictions over the past few years - however....

The super low open interest in the COT has my ears up.

Is that a gold rally train I hear comin' round the bend or just the dollar falling off the cliff?!

Chris Powell

(08/04/2001; 19:12:46 MDT - Msg ID: 59041)

Reply to Netking on silver

Netking, GATA has not collected information about silver, though of course we have followed with great interest Ted Butler's writing and suspect that he is right. I recommend the brilliant work of Hugo Salinas Price, a Mexican businessman who has advocated his country's remonetization of silver as a matter of regaining national sovereignty. For what it's worth, I think silver is money too. Hell, it used to be, and some of us find it as lovely as gold, and with even more industrial uses.

Waterboy

(08/04/2001; 20:17:47 MDT - Msg ID: 59042)

Sunset Industry

Black Blade and All

Wall Street Journal
July 30, 2001

http://interactive.wsj.com/articles/SB996439269313357542.htm

Oil Giants Struggle to Spend Profits Amid Shortage of Exploration Sites

By CHRISTOPHER COOPER and THADDEUS HERRICK
Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

In May, reporting on the first quarter of what may ultimately be its most successful year ever, Royal Dutch/Shell Group said it was pumping out about
$1.5 million in profit an hour and sitting on more than $11 billion in the bank.

It's a big problem.

Shell, like other major oil companies, faces an odd predicament. While energy prices have eased somewhat recently, the sustained surge of the past two years has brought piles of cash and pressure from shareholders to put it to good use.

But spending money isn't easy for big players in the oil industry these days. Shell has used some of its bounty to trim debt and buy back stock. It has tried to acquire other companies, with limited success. The major oil companies would love to put the ready cash into developing elephantine oil fields, but few of those remain. With about 90% of the
world's oil supply controlled by government-owned entities, publicly traded companies are finding it hard to expand their energy reserves. Economic sanctions ban U.S. companies from some of the world's biggest oil states, such as Libya, Iraq and Iran. From Dry Holes to Tap Water.
Meanwhile, oil production in established areas, such as the U.S. and the North Sea, is in a sustained decline. Less mature discoveries in Indonesia and Nigeria lie in hotbeds of political turmoil. Relatively new areas of exploration, including the Caspian Sea and offshore Brazil, have so far
offered more challenges than rewards. And some older regions -- Venezuela, China and the former Soviet Union -- continue to fall short of expectations.

So Shell is preparing to pour billions into a project that is as much about producing tap water as it is about energy.

In June, Shell joined six other oil companies including Exxon Mobil Corp. and BP PLC in signing on to a $30 billion project to build a series of water, electricity and petrochemical plants in Saudi Arabia, the world's most productive oil state. Not only is the project contrary to these companies' underlying business, but if they happen to find oil, they have agreed to give it to the Saudi government. Though natural-gas exploration constitutes a modest slice of the project, the companies can't export what
they discover.

Questioning the Profits

That companies in the business of producing energy would agree to such restrictions says much about the oddly depleted and barren nature of the modern oil industry, even as it chalks up record profits. Though the companies involved say they hope to make at least a 15% profit in the Saudi kingdom, that hasn't been guaranteed, and the payoff will be a long time coming. Some observers say they don't see profits at all, given the nature of the job.

Even if profits don't materialize, the projects do offer one attractive opportunity: A place to shove billions in cash before shareholders start complaining about cash reserves. The Petroleum Finance Co., a Washington, D.C., consulting firm, says the industry is sitting on nearly $40 billion in
cash, and the figure is likely to balloon in coming months.

Though energy reserves are rising world-wide, the big oil companies have been hard-pressed in recent years to increase their business substantially the old-fashioned way, by scouring the earth for new discoveries. Despite technological advances, companies in recent years just haven't been able to find many large, profitable fields. "If the industry had the projects, this money would be spent," says Larry Andersen, a vice president for Texaco Inc., which is based in White Plains, N.Y., and is in the process of being acquired by Chevron Corp. "But there's not a lot of opportunity."

No Impulse Shopping

Still, investors may be gratified to hear oil companies aren't duplicating the moves of boom times past. Go back to the mid-1970s when the price of oil skyrocketed and companies were swimming in cash. Mobil Corp., before its
merger with Exxon, purchased the now-defunct retailer Montgomery Ward & Co. Occidental Petroleum Corp. bought Iowa Beef Processors Inc. and went into the meat-packing business. Gulf Oil Co. -- subsumed long ago by Chevron --
made a pass at buying a circus. Even conservative Exxon embarked on a $500 million scheme to produce office machines -- and took a pounding. All of them received a tongue-lashing from Wall Street for straying from their area
of expertise.

With the good times rolling again, companies say they are focused on their core businesses and committed to capital discipline. Shell, for one, says its capital projects will work even if oil prices drop to $14 a barrel, or about half of what they are today. Exploration budgets, which tend to swell during times of plenty, are growing, but slowly. This year, Exxon Mobil plans to spend about 20% more than the $11.1 billion it spent last year on capital projects. Typically, oil exploration accounts for a majority of this
spending.

Instead of spending wildly, the majors have turned to buying back their stock. Exxon Mobil spent $2.35 billion to buy 54 million shares in 2000 and spent a further $1.44 billion buying back 35 million shares in the first quarter of this year. It barely made a dent in the cash hoard: As of this
month, Exxon Mobil has $9.3 billion on hand. Similarly, Shell spent a record $4 billion in just the first quarter buying its own stock, yet when the quarter ended the company was sitting on $11.68 billion in cash, 182% more than a year earlier.

Stephen Hodge, Shell's finance director, says the cash stockpile isn't a cause for concern. "The reality is that this is a hugely cyclical business," Mr. Hodge says. "At the top of the cycle, it throws off money like there is no tomorrow." Mr. Hodge said Shell will maintain spending discipline, though he notes that "we also don't want to miss opportunities that won't come back." He calls the stock
buybacks a "safety valve" that prevents too much cash from building up.

'Production Replacement'

At a recent stockholder meeting, Exxon Mobil Chairman and Chief Executive Lee Raymond noted how tough it is to find exploration projects big enough to expand reserves. Indeed, Exxon Mobil needs to find 1.6 billion barrels of oil a year -- the equivalent of three world-class fields -- just to make up for what it takes from the ground. "The challenge
is production replacement," says Harry Longwell, Exxon Mobil senior vice president for exploration and production. "That's becoming more difficult."

Though the company found more oil than it sold, Exxon Mobil's natural-gas reserves fell 5% last year. Shell had a harder time of it: Both its oil and natural-gas reserves fell slightly last year.

The easiest way to boost reserves is by acquiring other oil companies, as Exxon did when it bought Mobil in 1999 for $81 billion. Similarly, BP underwent dramatic change after buying American companies Amoco Corp. and Atlantic Richfield Co. around the same time. Those deals made BP almost the size of Shell, which three years ago was by far the largest
publicly held oil company in the world. Shell, whose corporate structure makes stock acquisitions difficult, sat out much of the recent industry consolidation. It's now smaller than Exxon Mobil, which is based in Irving,
Texas.

This year, Shell failed to clinch a $1.8 billion hostile takeover of Barrett Resources Corp. Subsequently, Shell failed to win Australian government approval to buy Woodside Petroleum Ltd. for about $5 billion. An easier target for Shell's cash may be the Saudi project, though it will
probably cost as much as Barrett and Woodside combined. The project's size and location offer prestige. And the companies hope it also offers entree into the kingdom's oil reserves -- though this may be wishful thinking. With the cheapest production costs in the business and ample spare
capacity, the Saudis clearly don't need any help getting their oil to market -- and have told the companies as much.

The Saudi project offers one further attraction: It appears to dovetail with the oil companies' core business in a way that catalog stores and circuses never did. When pressed, though, companies such as Occidental concede that the project is more about civil engineering than energy exploration.

.....Snip.....

serious implications about the future of oil.

Waterboy

Waterboy

(08/04/2001; 20:54:46 MDT - Msg ID: 59043)

Methane Hydrates as Alternative Fuel

http://www.dieoff.org/page192.htmBlack Blade and All

The prospects for Methane Hydrates as an alternative fuel are not attractive.

Unless you have a terrific interest in Methane Hydrates, suggest you scroll down to near the end of this long piece and read 'Conclusions', and 'Prospects for Future' only.

Waterboy

Black Blade

(08/04/2001; 21:55:24 MDT - Msg ID: 59044)

RE: Waterboy - Hydrates

Methane hydrates are definitely a "long term" play - a vvveeerrryyy lllooonnngg term play. The technology does not exist today to economically exploit methane hydrates - if ever. Cheers!

BTW, I don't remember you here before, even so - welcome to the "Round Table."

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(08/04/2001; 23:03:24 MDT - Msg ID: 59045)

Energy Crisis and Economic Recession

When anyone mentions the energy crisis people naturally think of oil. The world is consuming about 77 million bbl/day. If every oil well in the world, including marginal and uneconomic wells, and even every known stripper well were operating to produce oil, then only about 80 million bbl/day would be produced. That is only a 4% excess capacity whereas 15 years ago we had a 25% excess capacity. The World really is running short on oil.

The real energy crisis that we face right now is not about oil. Oil is in short supply, however, the real crisis is the shortage of energy - electricity. Oil provides only spittle of the fuel for electricity generation. There are very few duel fuel electricity generating facilities. Virtually every new and planned power plant is NG-fired. There are nearly 300 new power plants scheduled to go online by 2006.

The demand for electricity will continue to grow and will eventually outstrip supply. The fact is that there has been little interest to build new power plants as people have been complacent and take energy for granted. Every postwar recession has been preceded by an energy crisis, including this one. This energy crisis is different as it is more pervasive and the result of fundamental supply and demand and not the result of some political reaction such as the Arab Oil Embargo or the overthrow of the Shah of Iran.

The Internet alone consumes about 8% of all electricity and PCs consume an additional 12%. The "New Economy" is consuming electricity at an alarming rate. There are also new "Server Farms" being build nearly every week and they consume a lot of energy. This energy crisis is slow to hit the markets and it continues to build momentum even while unrealistic childish extremists resist the need to expand energy production and upgrade the energy grid. It is "Cheap Energy? That has fueled the Great Bull Market of the last 20 years. Those days are over.

Natural gas remains 2 to 3 times higher and production has not increased in spite of growing demand in a very weak economy. We need energy and the low prices of the recent past did not encourage anyone to increase capacity. We will see continued high prices (and going higher) until capacity is expanded. This recession should continue for a minimum of another 5 years and most likely several years longer. It takes many years to build up energy supply and electricity generating capacity. Add into the mix of few experienced workers, shoddy infrastructure, and the lack of drill rigs - and the future is clearly a bleak one. This recession is slowly picking up steam (the slow burn).

The lack of "Cheap Energy" to fuel the Bull - the Bear will feast on beef. There is no room for expansion as there is no more available excess energy. This means that this current recession will only get worse as corporate earnings continued to get crushed going forward. The result is that investment portfolios will also get crushed. Gold and silver are traditional "Safe Haven" portfolio insurance holdings that should be in everyone's portfolio.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(08/04/2001; 23:18:42 MDT - Msg ID: 59046)

Hedging losses cost Durban Deep dearly

http://www.suntimes.co.za/2001/07/29/business/news/news21.htm
Snippit:

Non-cash items pushed Durban Deep into a loss-making position of R1.8-million before tax, but a tax credit of R7.2-million gave a net R5.4-million after tax but before extraordinary losses of R112-million - principally because the hedge book was further restructured and a R135-million knock was taken below the line. Wellesley-Wood says: "The cost of our hedge book is totally unacceptable. By comparison, if Durban Roodepoort Deep had received the spot gold price for its gold, its cash operating profits would have been R175.6-million higher." He says the book's restructure has become the utmost priority. The benefit of writing off the long positions went straight to the bottom line in the June quarter, giving a margin of $30/oz - the received price of $258/oz was $10/oz below spot because of forward positions.

Black Blade: Forward sales bite another hedger in the a##!

abudahhab

(08/05/2001; 01:40:02 MDT - Msg ID: 59047)

To FOA and Another - many thanks!

FOA and Another,

Again, thank you for the great series postings over the past few days. I'm so pleased that you decided to stay on the Trail with us. It is critical that readers glimpse past the historical dollar pricing mechanisms towards the coming new reality. Gold has been the great store of wealth for the ages. Its current dollar value and availability is pure fiction.

You are indeed correct that without stability in pricing, the Dollar settlement system will rapidly fail. Greenspan and his Fed now openly talk of mass monitization of non-Tresury $US denominated debt at the Discount Window and the complete elimination of reserve requirements for commercial banks. All this while money supply growth "officially" tops 20%.

The arrival of the Euro, the revival of the Chevornet and the liberalization of gold trading in India and China jointly consitute a formidable challenge to the $US. Now, the US is no longer able to create an unlimited amount of fiat dollars to pay for goods and services around the globe. The great US credit inflation of the past 30 years is about to priced adjust all US goods and services. An execise of catch-up; the great mark-to-market of the dollar world. The Dollar must now compete against the Euro and free trading gold. All this at a time when the country's cumulative debts can only be serviced through massive and endless monetization.

In the aftermath of the 1930's, American politicians promised its citizens that they would never have to suffer through another deflationary depression. The coming hyperinflation should be seen as proof that these politicians have kept their promise.

Best regards,
abu DahhabView Yesterday's Discussion.

Netking

(08/05/2001; 04:18:49 MDT - Msg ID: 59048)

"War in 2002" - Israel

http://www.menewsline.com/stories/2001/august/08_05_1.htmlSnippit:

Israel has assessed an increasing prospect of a regional war next year.Israeli sources said military intelligence has drafted a report that warns of the increasing likelihood of regional war in 2002.

The report said the war could be sparked by either an Israeli offensive against the Palestinian Authority or an escalation in tension along Israel's border with Lebanon.
----------------------------------------------------------
We'll see if things last until then, many would say before Christmas . . .
- Netking

Belgian

(08/05/2001; 06:17:36 MDT - Msg ID: 59049)

Great WE post from all.

Candidate ECB-er Trichet (France), made another � -"Stability" statement on friday. This repeated stability-obsession is an indirect evidence for most of TG's visions.
In a global economic contraction, a lot of energy is spend on creating the right environment for the US$'s rival...a strong �. It must be that the facts about the dollar's weaknesses are well known and covered for reasons of appropiate surfacing-timing as strategic element in the �'s management !

Rich, (59037), what new/more facts do you need Sir ?
The most heavy fundamental ($/�) is being subtly stressed on permanently, only to be understood by the ones who do have "the" vision on things to come ($'s replacement as reserve).

All dollar holders still have to realize that they have been putting themselves at the receiving end of debt-trap.
Yep CB2, very nicely said ! Doesn't matter if the debt-trap was intentional...responsible people/savers, are permantly cheated (depreciated) and will suffer the most (as usual).
The "that's all folks", reality-acceptance, is still very far away. Darkhorse's English hasn't left him...quite the contrary. The toal amount of REAL GOODS production, gets it more and more difficult, to compensate for permanent and increasing paper depreciation. Very visible in the welfare-europ arena. Less visible in the debt-dollar-arena. The basic problem (cancer) = increasing artificial creation of economic activity with hyperconcentration and compensenting productivity is running completely out of proportion with all natural elements of economic exchange and expansion-rate. Simplier : they "all" want it "all" for "less" and they want it "now". This outragious greed, inevitably ends in sheer panic. As Denial, evolves into acceptance and capitulation. We don't need lots of figures to evidence this. Common observation is the real evidence, available behind each corner. Said in other words by Sierra Madre (59033) with the all in word : * PAPER * !
And these observating responsable ones defined by Pete (59035) as " anyone with an ounce of common sense ".

Not if, but when the US$-reserve is allowed (prepared to) to go in search for its depreciated value...I'm convinced that global expansion can re-start on a fresh new basis.
Global producers of necesarry tangibles will re-oxygenate from the past dollar suffocation. Kind of re-balancing and more honest, incentive trade and exchange of goods.
The hyper-concentration of the dollar power, holds the essence of its relieving decay . Is it reason or effect of the � > $ challenge ? Probably a bit of both.

The Gold-Drama has the pivot-function, helping the transition, to that other prospect of renewed expansion.
There is (was) no other universal tool for temporaray "FAKE" dollar-valuation. And any consortium of Dollar (NWO) supporters have the slightiest chance to perpatuate the metastase (dispersing) of the dollar cancer.
Because that particular paper, respresents less and less.
Evidence : OIL ! Another universal standard valuator !
For this reason we don't have to go out and count (account) all (global) real tangibles against the paper-mountain.
Oil valuation is doing this for us. And don't count on an oil alternative to show up as ultimate saver ! These alternatives will only become valuable when POO goes in the hundreds of dollars ! Oil and other energy-sources owners/producers, do see and realise that prosperity is completely dependent on their product and the tax (75%) that is generated on their product ! They increasingly want a bigger share of this vital global element as soon as geo- politics are in place (opportune) for them to demand so.

That's why Gold remains the "sleeping" Giant. Only to be awaken by the thundering of collapsing confidence in the manageral skills of the present geo-politico-rulers.
Muslim fundamentalism might weaken the (past) reasonable western relationships. The dollar-might is already frustrating ( Muslims/China/Russia/Europ) for quite a while. When frustration evolves into strong selfconfidence...beware !

CoBra(too)

(08/05/2001; 08:35:16 MDT - Msg ID: 59050)

Words of Wisdom from Bill Buckler

- Predictive? - In any case I find. The conclusion of the Privateer's latest weekly gold update:

quote:
We don't know whether this facade will crack with the release of the "productivity numbers" on August 7, or whether it will be the release of some other statistic that does it, or whether the capacity of illusion will simply prove unequal to the situation. We do know that the present situation is NOT sustainable.

If Gold was going to be hammered back towards its ulitmate support levels around the low $US 250s, it would almost certainly have happened by now. If the facade of U.S. economic "growth" is about to be ripped aside, then Gold has literally nowhere to go but up

Yes, it takes patience. Illusions die hard - always. But console yourself by realising that right now, physical Gold is the safest investment there is. And it will get a lot safer once the illusion of economic prosperity through borrowing is finally cracked, however that crack ultimately takes place. -unqoute

Not much more to add ... regards CB2

slingshot

(08/05/2001; 08:59:47 MDT - Msg ID: 59051)

Black Blade #59026 Sierra Madre #59033

Good Morning Everyone,
The two posts above triggered the Gray Matter to the think mode and the readouts from my CP may add another piece to the Golden Puzzle.
All this information from around the world and it still comes back to the Stock Market Crash. Either it be the Crash of 1929 or the one that looms in the future.
Sierra Madre, had some interesting comments in his post and appears he thinks there is more to it than what meets the eye.
There has been a vast amount of time discussing the statements of various Talking Heads of the government,banking and other institutions in which I include the News Media.
When will the spell be broken? When will the crash come? There is a link to these questions. More Important is to ask why?
My answer is, Those who fail to remember the past are doomed to repeat it. We have all the books on this subject but who reads them. If they have no idea of the consequences
of todays market, why should they prepare for a disaster in the market.
We have at in our mists a great pool of information available to us. First hand accounts. People who now are in nursing homes. They were the children of the depression, wars and other hardships in the world. Their words would be Truth. Not Speculation! Funny how Toilet paper can be a Precious Commodity in hard times.
So where does the youth turn to today for advise?
If you think the Taking Heads, you can see how the Spell has been casts. As for the Crash? Guess it is back to the School of Hard Knocks.

Slingshot

auspec

(08/05/2001; 10:16:37 MDT - Msg ID: 59052)

cb2 , Belgian and ALL

Cb2- Thanks for the regular posts from Bill Buckner's Privateer. His is one of the most discerning minds out there, and I miss his regular updates that use to be put out w/o subscription. I do take it you have a subscription, or am I overlooking something?

Belgian and ALL- In regards to the term 'debt trap', could you expound on this principal somewhat? You or I would never try to trap our brother-in-law by providing him with more cash than he can pay back, yet this is business as usual with the IMF gang. It seems so foolish as the one who never gets paid back is the one who should be considered 'trapped'. I guess the cost of printing money for loans is near nada, and the 'sphere of influence' gained by holding the purse strings keeps the plantation system intact. The dollar debt must also expand, according to inherent structure, in order to survive. As the Greenback arrives at its destiny ALL who hold same will be in a debt trap, no?
Got sufficient prosperity trap?

auspec

(08/05/2001; 10:19:28 MDT - Msg ID: 59053)

Kingston Trio

Here's an old and prophetic one:
"Well, I don't give a damn about a greenback dollar,
spend them as fast as I can"...........on precious
Selah

auspec

(08/05/2001; 10:49:39 MDT - Msg ID: 59054)

Kondratieff Cycle and Debt Traps

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/doran080401pv.htmlThis is an excellent article at GE by Ursel Doran, who I have never previously read, but look forward to more. HE delve into answers of my own questions about 'debt traps'. Guess the timing is nearly right. CYCLES!!

Cavan Man

(08/05/2001; 12:00:43 MDT - Msg ID: 59055)

auspec

Great link. Thanks.

R Powell

(08/05/2001; 12:17:25 MDT - Msg ID: 59056)

auspec

because a whawling song and a good guitar
the only things that I understand
Oh boy
the only things that I understand.
early Kingston Trio
good music!

Buena Fe

(08/05/2001; 13:38:00 MDT - Msg ID: 59057)

fairy tales

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topsum&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AO21Y.BTCU2xvd2RvWS/FED/TREAS are going to go down kicking and screaming!! Here is another piece full of their drivel, it's sad how mind-numbed most westerners are. They will hold on tho their $ illusion all the way to the bottom.
________________________________________________________

08/05 10:32
Slowdown Keeping on Lid on Profits, Inflation: U.S. Economy
By Vincent Del Giudice and Terry Barrett

Washington, Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economic slowdown has dampened the threat of inflation and that makes it easier for interest rates to decline, analysts said in advance of Friday's report on prices paid to factories, farmers and other producers.

The producer price index probably fell 0.3 percent in July after dropping 0.4 percent in June, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. That would be second consecutive monthly decline and gives support to Federal Reserve policy makers if they see a need to lower borrowing costs at their meeting this month...............

AND

.............With the economy in low gear, the strong dollar keeping a lid on import prices and unemployment up from last year, companies have reported the biggest drop in quarterly profits in 10 years.

``The constant drumbeat of troubling news on corporate profits suggests businesses can't raise prices,'' said William Sullivan, an economist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. in New York. ``Inflation for the foreseeable will remain benign.'' ...........

NOW I'M ROLLING ON THE FLOOR, TEARS OF LAUGHTER FLOWING....

...........That sort of news clears the way for the Fed to lower the benchmark overnight bank lending rate for the seventh time this year to provide a kick for the economy. Economic growth slipped to an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the second quarter, the slowest in eight years...........

OH PLEASE STOP......YOU'RE MAKING ME SICK......I DON'T KNOW IF I CAN STOMACH THE REST OF THIS ARTICLE.
"THE KING ($) HAS NOOOO CLOTHES ON!"

Belgian

(08/05/2001; 15:38:20 MDT - Msg ID: 59058)

The DEBT Trap (Auspec)

Sir, if you enjoyed U. Doran...go and pay the boys of Colorado long waves a visit. They are heavely Kondratieff involved. And stone good in their field. The Doran article "is it" imvho of course.

Debt in a nutshell. More precisely "Unproductive" Debt.
The bulk of necesarry defaults / write offs / debt destructions, are not allowed to take place. Defaults are causing deflation and contraction. Debt is soooooo big that a little default heat can't melt the monstrous iceberg anymore to a manageble size.
All debt has to be rolled over and covered with more and new debt as to avoid any slow down in growth, wich becomes more and more artificial. State welfare is also a creation of debt. At first the distributed money is recycled for a major part, by taxing the actives. But the hand out benificiaries just keep on asking more and taxing has reached maximum levels. Than the money machine starts printing and all is done to avoid price inflation.

All interest rate on debt is additional debt and when total debt varies between 60% and 120% (average 100%) of GDP and economic growth is 3 %...the debt servicing with 6% is outstripping growth by double the amount (6% versus 3%).
More and more debt is absolutely necesarry to service the previous debt and to keep the artificial economic growth going.

The more debt is accumulated, without default, the easier it becomes to make more debt. The creditor just keeps on creating chances to recover part of what has been lend. In vain of course. He/we/they are all trapped.

When that vast amount of debt is not counterbalanced with savings...you certainly guess by now what will happen.

This vicious circle is already spinning for at least 30 years in increasing momentum. In the eightees, high IRs and soaring POG signaled that it really got out of hand.
The masters got together and decided to do something about it. And they managed to "talk" it down and took all warning signals from the radar (interest rates and gold). It worked ! That's why everybody is so complacent. We made it happen ! Full control ! Your brother in law kept his job and you lowered his debt-servicing rate and gave him another loan. You never saw (or will see) the principal and you live on the interest income on the debt that you provided to sooooo many others. Cheers !

All types and kinds of debt are running in that same one way street...downhill, faster and faster !

Debt isn't going to be repaid and not written off. Something drastically has to happen to stop and restart this infernal circus. Time and time again, I'm asked on the breaking point on this chair dancing. When does the music stops ? The music is (was) the dollar and the band is going to play another song, an Euro song and that's why he's (the $) running out of time . Hyperinflation will take the old chairs away and replace them with others. Gold will signal clearly to everyone when the music risks to stop. A brand new debt and mismanagement warning system ! IRs will be stabilized later on. Past debt(berg) will be melted to a much smaller size . But don't know how. What about a Gold dollar and a debt dollar living alone together ? Or something like that. Who knows ?

Note that we even have no idea of total global debt standing out. The known figures are already disastrous enough. Global management is happy when debt-growth is slowing. But when economic growth slows, even a stable debtberg becomes a problem, because of contracting liquidity. Some debts are paid back partially with the sale of unnecessary assets. That means that the ship is making water. cfr. Japan !

Goldphiles are not that familiar with debt. This attitude isn't part of their profile. Maybe the reason that we underestimated the enormous impact of it to be reflected on the dollar as most widely holded debt currency.

Leigh

(08/05/2001; 16:41:27 MDT - Msg ID: 59059)

Belgian

Dear Belgian: When do you see the hyperinflation beginning? Do you see it as a slow process, or might a traumatic event set it off? It seems that half the posts on the gold forums center on the subject of "when," and I wonder if you have an idea of the chain of events that might get all this going.

Thank you!

Netking

(08/05/2001; 17:53:04 MDT - Msg ID: 59060)

The week ahead . . .

http://www.moneynet.com/content/MONEYNET/EconomicCalendar/EcoCalendar.asp. . . promises to be a good one, no time for slumber in Netking zone.

auspec

(08/05/2001; 18:20:06 MDT - Msg ID: 59061)

An Unproductive Debt Free Belgian

Thank you, Sir, may all your debts be productive! So we see that a debt trap can be a crony capitalist's best friend, fraudulent use of public funds, bailed out by Jane and Joe.
Ed Steer recently made commentary in regards to derivatives and their relationship to debt:
"....for all the most highly leveraged financial institutions, these problems can NEVER BE FIXED!!!! These morons are going to die with their boots on. The lunatics ARE running the asylum!!!!" Thank you Ed, for gently laying that out for us to ponder. What Ed fails to take into account is twofold. 1- The financial wizards have computers that reach to nearly infinity. 2- These clever folks can simply suspend the laws of economics, and by edict ban various cycles that interfere with their utopia. Who needs commodities other than paper? Kondratieff, back to Siberia with ya!
No, sorry, in the long run the toilet needs to be flushed. A systemic collapse is what will be required to purge the stench of 30 plus years of economic experimentation and manipulation. It is not nice to slap the invisible hand of the free market!
So the game continues to the inevitable end because the throttle is locked down at maximum speed. Turning back merely hastens the ugly finality that approaches. The big question is.....Was this fiasco perpetuated on the world economy done on purpose, or out of sheer stupidity and arrogance? Very likely a blend of all 3 factors. You can bet that the plans have been layed, and recently tweaked at Bologna, to implement the big GRAB once 'Winter' arrives. A grab of power primarily, but also of anything not fully secured. Make sure you're fully anchored!
Belgian, the K-Winter clearly calls for debt deflation, forgiveness or write offs. Now we must plan for monetary inflation/hyper/inflation at the same time, yes? It can be no other as a leopard doesn't bleach his spots. Gold is quite happy during K-Winter, clearly. These megalomaniacs could have chosen to defend $400 POG instead of $290 and then $266, but no, let's try to see if we can't make this VW into a space shuttle, way more 'Challenger'{ing}, and the crash will be much more entertaining. Besides, we control 99.999999999999% of the airwaves and public opinion, the unwashed will beg us for 'solutions' before you can say K-WAVE.
What can we do about this? Vote, drink Coke, see your Proctologist regularly, call me in the morning.
What, me Worry? Got plans this winter?

USAGOLD

(08/05/2001; 18:52:31 MDT - Msg ID: 59062)

Myths & Realities about Gold . . . The ABCs of Gold Investing

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.htmlNote: I decided to reproduce the "Myths & Realities" chapter out of the ABCs book for the current issue of News & Views. In re-reading it, I was pleasantly surprised how well it has held up over the years (the book was published in 1997). Please excuse any typos you might find. I scanned it and George Cooper has not edited it yet. Those of you who invest in gold stocks, please note that I am not condemning them as an investment -- just recognizing that they are different class of investment subject to a different set of standards than gold itself is -- a speculation as opposed to an hedge or insurance against monetary disorder. Please keep in mind that this book was published long before the problems at Ashanti, Cambior, and other hedged producers, including some of the majors, became general public knowledge. I have been asked many times if I intend to update the book. I've thought about it but wonder when I see how the central ideas have withstood the test of time, I hesitate.

If you are just getting started on gold and would like to read the ABCs of Gold Investing: Protecting Your Wealth through Private Gold Ownership I believe you can to the ABCs page through the Home page and follow the links to the on-line order form. The starter link is above.

I want to thank all of you who post here on a regular basis and spend the time to make this forum important for so many visitors. Let the discussion continue. . . . .I will be around tonight if anyone has a question.

------------

Gold has its critics. Yet most of their criticism is ill founded and amounts to little more than good propaganda for those who fear strong gold demand will divert investor interest from the equities markets and the dollar. You have probably heard or read most of the standard criticisms. Here are concise and complete rebuttals�the last words on the merits of gold.

Myth: Gold is not a good portfolio item because it doesn't pay interest.

Reality: That gold does not pay interest is its greatest strength. If gold were to pay interest, it would mean the return on your gold and the return of your gold would be dependent on the performance of another individual or institution. This, of course, is the case with paper assets such as bonds, bank certified deposits, even stocks. The contractual relationship between the creditor and debtor can be a paper asset's greatest strength. It can also be its greatest weakness. An additional and often complicating factor is that paper assets are directly affected by the performance of the currencies in which they are denominated.
Gold, on the other hand, is a stand-alone investment independent of government largesse or the performance of another individual or institution. This is gold's greatest strength. Even though gold does not pay interest directly, as its critics claim, it is interesting to note that over any extended period of time the interest rate of currency becomes imputed in the price. During inflationary periods the appreciation in the price of gold is the greatest, and so is the rise in interest rates. During deflationary periods the gold price tends to stay flat while interest rates plummet. Gold historically seeks a price level that takes into account the inflation rate of currency. This compensates for its non-interest-bearing status.

Myth: Gold stocks are a better portfolio option than gold itself.

Reality: Gold stocks are stocks first and gold second. This is an important distinction lor investors to rccognize because, once it is understood, justifying gold stock ownership as a substitute for gold itself becomes very difficult. Owning gold stocks is not unlike owning other types of stock. As a mattcr of fact, in the last three stock market crashes�1929, 1935, and 1987�gold stocks also tumbled into the abyss, belying claims by stockbrokers that they can serve as a hedge against disaster.
In addition, you could presumably own a gold stock during a period of rising gold prices and not participate in the uptrend simply because a company had diminishing prospccts in the eyes of the investment community. Another problem with gold stocks in the 1990.s is that many mining companies have sold several years of production forward as part of their mine financing programs. If the price of gold rises, these companies could be excluded from the bull market because they will have already sold their production forward at prices less, even considerably less, than the current market rate. Gold stocks are not an investment in gold. They are simply another stock market investment and should be analyzed as such. There is no substitute for owning the real thing.

Myth: Gold is just another commodity, like pork bellies.

Reality: Gold trades on the commodities exchanges along with pork bellies and the other commodities, but here the similarity ends. [Unlike other commodities, which are procluced strictly for consumption, gold is the only commodity that is accumulated and saved. It is also the only commodity used as money to facilitate future consumption. Most of the gold ever produced still exists today. You cannot say the same thing about pork bellies, .soybeans, or sugar. The gold you might someday purchase could very well have been part of the treasury of Rome, or used by Marco Polo in his first vi.sit to China, or circuIated as currency in the Old West. This money (asset preservation) function of gold separates it from thc commodity complex and gives it a special place at the very top of the value scale.
Those who relegate gold to the status of "just another commodity" usually do so because they either fear gold or do not like competing against it. By denigrating it, they hope to subdue public accumulation�an exercise in futility. Gold is the enduring commodity.

Myth: Gold is a "barbarous relic" of past monetary systems, irrelevant in today's computerized markets.

Reality: Gold is held as a reserve asset in nearly every central bank in the world. It serves as their asset of last resort, to be used for grave international crises such as war, economic troubles, environmcntal disasters, and the like. Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker recently made these comments about gold and central banking, answering the "barbarous relic" claims:

"We sometimes forget that central banking as we know it today is, in fact, largely an invention of the past hundred years or so, even though a few central banks can trace their ancestry back to the early nineteenth century or before. It is a sobering fact that the prominence of central banks in this century has coincided with a general tendency toward more inflation, not less. By and large, if the overriding objective is price stability, we did better with the ninetcenth century gold standard and passive central banks, with currency boards, or even with "free banking. The truly unique power of a central bank, after all, is the power to create money, and ultimately the power to create is the power to destroy."

Other central bankers, including current U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan (See "Gold and Economic Freedom" above), have voiced similar admiration for this "barbarous relic." In lieu of an international gold standard, individual investors have been forced to place themselves on the gold stanclard even in today's computerizcd markets. Gold today has the same relevance it has always enjoyed. It is the asset of last resort and universal value for both individual investors and nation-states.

Myth: World governments in conjunction with their central banks control the gold price. They intend to hold that price down.

Reality: In each instance in modern monetary history when governments and central banks (including our own Federal government and central bank) acted to hold the gold price down, the price was on the verge of moving substantially higher due to inflationary policies these very same institutions were promulgating. Their activities to hold gold down amounted to exercises in futility, only delaying the dominant, underlying trend. As a matter of fact, government interventions in the gold market in the past (most recently in the 1960s and 1970s) have amounted to no less than solid indicators that the price was about to go substantially higher. Far from being able to control gold, to the consternation of some central bankers and governments, they too must answer ultimately to what the gold market is telling them. When it comes to currency value, gold is the master of all and a slave of none.

Myth: Gold is a speculative, volatile investment that should be avoided by conservative investors.

Reality: It is not gold that changes in value, but currencies. What you could purchase with an ounce of gold a hundred years ago you can purchase with an ounce of gold today. The reason for the spikes dominating the gold charts is not gold's volatility but, rather government and/or central bank intervention to suppress the price. Once market forces overcame the intervention, gold sought its natural level, which proved to be multiples of the interventionists' target range. Hence the spikes. If the interventionists had not acted to keep gold down, the chart would have shown a more gradual rise, and gold's critics would be unable to make claims of its volatility.

Myth: Gold is an unpatriotic investment.

Reality: It has become a small world. Investors now invest their money in economies all over the world. Is it unpatriotic for an investor to buy Swiss annuities, or a Japanese equities fund, or a South American gold fund? Would this be considered un-American? Probably not. There is also the question of whether citizens are obligated to lose everything they have holding a currcncy that is being systematically debased by the government and its monetary authorities. As I have shown in other sections of this book, the monetary policies of the United States virtually assure further devaluation of thc dollar in the future.
The world's central banks have already responded to these circumstances by substantially reducing their holdings of dollars, not too long ago the chief international reserve currency. No one knows the long-term outcome of such a transformation, but few who understand the problem feel they should go unprotected. Far from being unpatriotic, citizens who accumulate gold may be the exact opposite. They could very well turn out to be the country's most farsighted, devoted, and patriotic resource. Indeed, the fact that certain citizens have the wisdom to accumulate gold may someday turn out to be this country's saving grace. If the dollar were to fail, the gold accumulated in the United States by American citizens would become the capital base required for this nation to recover -- a thought worth pondering.

Michael Kosares is the founder and president of Centennial Precious Metals / USAGOLD and the author of The ABCs of Gold Investing: Protecting Your Wealth through Private Gold Ownership.

Copyright 1997 Michael J. Kosares. All rights reserved. No further reproduction without permission.

Rockgrabber

(08/05/2001; 19:07:02 MDT - Msg ID: 59063)

To Sir M.K.

TO Sir M.K.. Thanks for having wrote the A.B.C.s of gold, as I read that book to kick-start my knowledge of GOLD. Probably should read it again , but I am a bit haughty. Then at the end, I saw the U.S.A. Gold web-site listed, thanks. Now, ever from that time, I feel I am off and running. Thanks for the start, and probably the finish ( ANOTHER, and FOA's little scenario I am inclined to believe, as it makes the most likely sittuation I am living at this time).

USAGOLD

(08/05/2001; 19:22:47 MDT - Msg ID: 59064)

Sir Rockgrabber. . . .

Thanks for the note. So many have started with The ABCs. Glad to see you here.

FOA and Another's true value is in the fundamental understandings they have imparted. We understand the world of international finance as a dynamic, not static, process because of them. We also understand from them that the world is in the throes of a fundamental shift in the post 1971 relationships. I sincerely believe that they are correct that the euro is the last leg in a long process of breaking away from the Anglo-American dollar/IMF power structure. I don't know where it will all end, but I am grateful that we have people posting here who understand the underlying drama and what it might mean to me and you as investors.

May the rocks you grab be filled with yellow metal, my friend. I look forward to seeing you here through the excitement to come.

Chris Powell

(08/05/2001; 19:54:04 MDT - Msg ID: 59065)

An exchange between The Mining Web and GATA

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/846An exchange between The Mining Web and GATA:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/846

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Trurl

(08/05/2001; 20:02:32 MDT - Msg ID: 59066)

CPM and IRAs

Hello MK and USAGOLD

I have a question about the sorts of IRAs CPM offers. I am especially interested in Roth IRAs, since they seem to be a good bet if one expects assets to dramatically increase in dollar denominated value...

Does USAGOLD offer such things? It a segragated account, or a share of ownership of some sort of pool?

Like many lurkers, I have an intense interest in the give and take on your forum, but don't often have anything meaningful to add. I have an idea for the fifth horseman � OK to post?

USAGOLD

(08/05/2001; 20:21:01 MDT - Msg ID: 59067)

Sir Trurl. . .

Unless I'm wrong, not knowing a great deal about Roth IRA's, you can invest in gold bullion coins if you like. We just have to do a rollover -- which the investment firms take care of -- make you fiduciary to the trust, and then you can invest your money where you want. Having said that, George Cooper is the guy to talk to about that. He's our resident expert on IRAs and his legal background makes him careful (which is what you want). He does this sort of thing all of the time. Call him tomorrow and he'll find out what you need to do. We don't like pool investments generally speaking, even if they are seemingly well-intentioned. Our advice would be to have the gold earmarked in your name and stored accordingly. That's called "segregated" storage. As I say though, I'm not an expert on this and don't know if Roth IRAs have special rules. You should talk to George.

I think we would all be interested in your Fifth Horseman. Amazed how that concept has stuck around. With Fall coming on, I'm starting to think about stocking up on some essentials. Just my nature I guess. I always do it and always happy I did.

What's this stuff about a crash on Tuesday that everybody is talking about? Seems kind of arbitrary to me, but I agree with the sentiment. The date might be wrong, but the concern is hard to quarrel with.

goldquest

(08/05/2001; 21:47:42 MDT - Msg ID: 59068)

The Federal Reserve, Petition For Articles Of Impeachment.

http://home.hiwaay.net~becraft/mcfadden.htmlCrooks then-Crooks now! Congressman McFadden wasn't able to purge these leaches, GATA WILL!

goldquest

(08/05/2001; 21:52:12 MDT - Msg ID: 59069)

http://home.hiwaay.net/~becraft/mcfadden.html

Sorry, try this one.

Rockgrabber

(08/05/2001; 22:28:15 MDT - Msg ID: 59070)

This time frame seems reasonable, for the war, and gold.

http://www.menewsline.com/stories/2001/august/08_05_1.html Gold takes off very soon, no? along with a war in the Mid-East, and intro of Euro Paper.

U.S.A. GOLD thanks for the kind words, and kind information. I will take a road trip to visit you this fall, as I feel bad for having not purchased an once of gold through you, and a large part of why I buy gold is due to you and others on this web-site, you have provided for those who wish not to be in the dark. Need not reply to me again, I just thank you. You know one day to come soon, you will be a hero. Not that that is what at all is strived for, but it is inevitable, from my eyes anyhow. Good luck on your soon to come fame. Just look at what you are doing and providing at a time when this is far from commom knowledge.

Trurl

(08/05/2001; 22:29:52 MDT - Msg ID: 59071)

The fifth horseman

�As we join the scene, the four horsemen are encamped on a trail overlooking the big city. They are all alert and scanning the hillsides, on the lookout for the rumored fifth horsemen.

They have been on the watch for sometime, but are still alert for his arrival. Near noon, they see somebody famous riding up the trail. They take a break from their search to greet this renowned person. He, being a famous person, is used to the attention, but grins as they fall over themselves trying to be the first to shake his hand.

They are excited to see this person, since he or his representatives are often seen on TV, or quoted in the major newspapers. He is almost universally loved and respected. It is a well known fact that many people have gotten rich exploiting his investment style. Thus many, many folks love him for they perceive that "using" him is a shortcut to investment success.

After a short visit and a pleasant exchange of greetings, the four horsemen resume their vigilance of scanning for the expected new arrival, and the famous man makes to continue riding along. He actually rides a short distance, turns around, laughs, and says "well, I'm here!".

The four horsemen are confused, since the man in front of them is no stranger. They themselves have gotten rich "using" him. He again laughs and explains, "everyone thinks they �use� me to get great wealth. All along they don't know, THEY ALL WORK FOR ME."

His name is leverage.

Canuck

(08/05/2001; 22:45:52 MDT - Msg ID: 59072)

@ Chris Powell

Mr. Powell,

Saw your exchange with the 'Mining Web' entity. Mr. MiningWeb is not publicly cheering you guys on, but within he is 'a closet fan'.

Before I go on, I will explain a 'closet fan'. If you have heard of this expression please skip by. Any novices, rookies or newbies should proceed. Up in the 'golden north', (smile) we haved cheered for the Toronto Maple Leafs' (nice term, eh!) and the Montreal Canadians for about 600 years. I, like many Canucks 'appreciate' the Pittsburgh Peguins, the Detroit Red Wings, etc., etc. but in quiet quarters, behind the scenes, we bid on the Leafs and Canadians. We are 'closet fans'.

Onward...............(as per FOA)

I don't believe for a nanosecond that the POG is not 'managed'. Expanding, I don't think that the economy at large is not manipulated. It has to be, the people have to be content, otherwise they will get restless and disgruntled. I have the impression that many people, groups, organizations, corporations and probably some governments agree with you regarding the gold management process but they are 'closet fans'. How many of the above listen to the GATA data, endorse the concept (verbally) but fail to 'join ranks'. Look at Placer, they gave you $10,000 and when asked about the Howe proceeding they were 'neutral on the matter'. What the hell is that?

"Mr. Placer Dome, do you want us to fight for the free market, supply and demand price for gold?"

"Let me get back to you on that."

So let me ask you a question. The producers, particularly the majors, are sitting in the weeds apparently waiting for something to happen. Do the majors want a higher gold price? Why do they not jump on your bandwagon?

I have it now. In the last couple minutes it has struck me like a 2 X 4. The majors are either 'owned' or they are scared shi*tless. Is Barrick a sleasy, hedge fund aided and abetted by crooks operating behind the scenes by still more crooked bankers, perhaps investment bankers and even central bankers? I ask because I do not know or even suppose
to know. Is Placer looking for an honest POG but dare not ask for it? Did you see Franco-Nevada'a 'Outlook for Gold' in its recent quarterly report?

"A positive development for mining in the US was the election of President Bush. His cabinet appointees promise to deliver a more even-handed operating enviroment than the Clinton or possible Gore administration."

Let me paraphrase that, " Bush promises to deliver a more even-handed operating enviroment." Wow, is that a mind-blower; page 7, paragraph 3, 2001 Annual Report. (FN-T)
What are they (obviously) not saying about Clinton?

What did Franco say when you asked for their support?

I think FOA may be correct, mining shares are a potentially dangerous investment. The explosion of gold may be limited to physical only. Your thoughts?

I ramble, I apologize. I am forward, hopefully not too so. I am sure nothing that I have asked or mentioned has not been said or thought at least a 'couple' times.

Good luck with your endeavors.

Canuck.

wiley

(08/05/2001; 23:16:41 MDT - Msg ID: 59073)

Black Blade---Pobre Prairie Chicken

Much appreciate your ongoing energy updates. Don't know if you have seen this AP report by Mary Perea in the Sunday Santa Fe New Mexican.

ALBUQUERQUE - A battle over oil and gas drilling lands is being waged across the valleys and deserts of New Mexico, where producers chafe over restrictions on their access to federally managed land.

New Mesico is already a top producer of natural gas and crude oil - its known natural-gas reserves rank second only to Texas - but industry officials complain that some of the richest areas are of-limits because of environmental concerns.

"We are severely limited in our ability to maximize the production of oil and gas in New Mexico," said Bob Gallagher, president of the New Mexico Gas and Oil Association.

These days, producers are especially interested in moving into Otero County in southcentral New Mexico.

Harvey E. Yates Co. in Roswell applied for drilling permits in that area's Oro Grande Basin after significant discoveries were made four years ago. While the Bereau of Land Management has not denied permits, they have not been approved "in a timely manner" said Steve Yates, company vice president.

Both Gallagher and Yates say pressure from environmental groups has hindered acess to New Mexico land.

There has to be some trade-off, Yates said; the land cannot go totally untouched while still keeping down gas prices.

"What we're trading is invironmental purity for the price of our energy need,"Yates said "We can, in an environmentally friendly way, develop our natural resources. We can and we have."

Steve Capra of the New Mexico Wilderness Alliance disagrees. He said two frequently drilled areas - the San Juan Basin in the Four Corners area and the Permian Basin in the southeastern part of the state - are proof of the damage the oil industry can do. Power lines, pipelines and gas rigs cover the land and the smell of gas pollutes the air, Capra said.

"This is not benign activity," Capra said. "These rigs require water, they require a lot of infrastructure."

Capra describes the Otero Mesa as an "open valley with the Sacramento Mountains coming in from one side and the Gualalupe Mountains on the other side. You are in a vast open space that is quiet and pristine," he said.

"It is never going to be the same if we allow oil and gas development around it."

Otero Mesa is one of three areas where Gallagher said the industry disputing BLM regulations. He said restrictions on drilling in the Permian and San Juan Basin also cause concern.

In the San Juan Basin, new drilling has been linited to within 300 feet of an existing road while an environmental impact statement is being completed, Gallagher said.

In the Permian Basin, drilling is restricted for three months on 450,000 acres because it is the MATING SEASON OF THE LESSER PRAIRIE CHICKEN (emphasis mine). He calls that restriction, which runs from March 15 to June 15, "bizarre," Gallagher said.

Hhowever, according to the BLM, its decisions are based on many factors. Those include an assessment plan, which is done before drilling is allowed in an area. end

Makes me want to renew my membership in PETA (People who Eat Tasty Animals. LESSER PRAIRIE CHICKEN?????

tedw

(08/05/2001; 23:52:33 MDT - Msg ID: 59074)

Silver

http://www.usagold.comSilver

Here is a prognosis on silver from the Safemoney report

www.safemoneyreport

Warning: Continue to steer clear of silver! Just as I have been telling you, silver continues to sink in value, falling 13% since the first of the year. Now, it's about to bust below $4.20 on its way to well below $4.00 an ounce ... and eventually even to $2.00!

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
A lot more on the money than Ted Butlers essays.It is amazing how much "the experts" can disagree. Obviously, someone is not an expert.

Netking

(08/06/2001; 01:25:38 MDT - Msg ID: 59075)

tedw - Ag

Howdy Sir Ted(59074)For sure Martin(or Larry for that matter too) have been saying/inferring: "First Ag to $4.00 & then to the Universe beyond to $2.00!" . . . they could be right, it's not impossible, lets face it yes?

But with all due respect to their professional careers, I believe they are currently not in touch with the market as close as they should be if this is their view point. I could be wrong as well . . . . .but the mathematical chances are however very remote of what they preach happening.

There is very strong underlying support for physical Ag at current price levels with steady, constant & strong accumulation taking place. If we have a washout down to $4.15 (or even $4.00'ish)IMHO, this would be as low as we would get, it would be VERY short term and the demand for physical by speculators, investors & industry would be smothering & would explode with physical buy orders at these prices. Who would be the sellers of physical at these prices? Those who bought comex-long would take delivery, Comex Ag inventory stock levels would go down real fast!

Ag's at a 5,000 year inflation adjusted low, what we've mined for 5,000 is almost naught, but Martin says $2.00, we'll see Sir!, but I for very respectfully differ with his viewpoint. - regards NetkingView Yesterday's Discussion.

SteveH

(08/06/2001; 01:46:35 MDT - Msg ID: 59076)

A friend sent me this...

he didn't know which message board it came from. Sound familiar?

From: tradermike_1999

Let me tell you about two stocks. One has a P/E ratio of 100. It has completed
a head and shoulders top pattern - the most bearish technical pattern there is -
and fallen over 30% in the past few weeks and will most likely to continue to
decline. A month ago insiders filed to sell millions of shares. Today an
analyst at the firm Dain Rauscher Wessels upgraded the stock. Various talking
heads on CNBC reported the upgrade several times today. The stock is up .40
cents today as people bought off of the upgrade news.

CNBC did not report on the fact that Dain Rauscher Wessels was one of the lead
underwriters that took this company public. In fact it owns several million
shares that it will have to dispose of some time in the future. The analyst
said that the stock is a "strong buy" because it has a "low valuation." But the
stock has a P/E of 100! If you haven't guessed it yet the stock is Krispy Kreme
(KKD).

This morning Maria Bartiroma - nicknamed the "CNBC money honey" - reported that
Priceline.Com(PCLN) has been upgraded to a strong buy by Merrill Lynch because
the people at Merrill think that it will make 14 cents a share next year and
they claim that the stock has a "low valuation." Maria did not tell her viewers
that Merrill Lynch was the lead underwriter and investment banker for
Priceline.Com and owns millions of shares of the stock that it will eventually
sell. Nor did she tell people that even if it were to make 14 cents a share
next year it would have P/E of 60. She told everyone it was cheap and didn't
blink while she did it.

At the exact moment that Maria repeated these analyst upgrades over in
Washington Congress was holding hearings into the conflicts of interest that
analysts have and warning people not to follow them. The acting SEC Chairwoman -
Laura Unger - told the committee that the SEC has found that 1/4 of the
analysts own stock in the companies that they covered and three out of 57
analysts sold shares while they issued buy recommendations on stocks. This is
something that is completely illegal but the SEC does nothing about it. I run a
website and disclose my stock positions all of the time. If I didn't and told
you to buy stocks that I already owned than I would be fined by the SEC - and I
should be! The SEC needs do the same thing to the big financial institutions on
Wall Street. The only thing that discourages them is investor lawsuits by
people who were taken to the cleaners by these pump and dump operations.

These Congressional hearings are unprecedented. When is the last time you can
remember Congress going against the power of Wall Street and exposing its
underbelly to the public? This is big stuff, but CNBC has placed a total news
blackout on the hearings. Why?

We can only look at Maria Bartiromo to see the answer. She typifies the style
of reporting that you see on CNBC. She is smart. She has contacts on Wall
Street and is very familiar with how pump and dump operations work. Her husband
ran a penny stock magazine that pump and dumped stocks. In fact he found
himself indicted and fined by the SEC for his operations. She just came out
with a book called "Use the News" and has been on Good Morning America and
Charlie Rose touting it.

In her book she tells investors to use analyst recommendations and press
releases that companies put out to know when to buy or sell stocks. In other
words they should stay tuned to CNBC to know what is going on. This is her
style of reporting. Every morning she gets on TV and spouts off all of the
analyst recommendations and never mentions their conflicts of interest. By
omitting this information she makes their opinions appear legitimate and the
average person who watches the show sees no reason to suspect anything. If they
see something an analyst says that they like, such as "stocks will go up", then
they believe it because it is what they want to hear. If they are looking for
the next hot stock to buy the cut on the TV and jump on something that has a
positive spin on it.

And here is why CNBC does not cover the Congressional hearings. They depend on
analysts for their content. The entire channel is nothing buy a rolling call of
analyst recommendations. It doesn't have to be. They could hire reporters who
have enough knowledge about the stock market to give you their opinion on what
stocks are worth buying and where the market is going. But that would mean
taking some responsibility for their content and it is much easier to just
repeat what someone else is saying and let them be responsible than to take
responsibility for yourself.

But the fact that they do nothing but rely on analysts and people with an
agenda means that it is completely useless as a source of investment
information. In fact it is hazardous to your financial health. Successful
investors don't make money by buying because of analyst recommendations or
press releases. These "news" stories are designed for one thing - to provoke
you into taking the course of action its creator wants you to take. If a firm
owns a stock and they upgrade it they do so because they want you to buy it,
not because they want to help you make money.

Let me give you a real life example. A year ago I was watching a small
Australian biotech company that claimed to have created a "miracle vaccine" for
skin cancer. It turned out that most of their research was nothing but a hoax
and anyone who took the time to do some research on it could easily find this
out. A group of cancer researchers at a major university published an article
in a medical journal that blew apart the claims of this biotech company
completely apart.

The stock was being heavily promoted. I got an email message from a major
shareholder asking me to tell my readers to buy the stock. The guy even told me
that a large financial website would put out an article about the company and
make it go higher. And he was right. But those aren't the type of stocks I am
interested in buying. I don't invest in frauds. But that didn't matter to Wall
Street or CNBC.

The Wall Street firm of Gruntal gave the company a credit line and helped it
carry out a secondary offering that gave Gruntal several million shares in
return. The head analyst at Gruntal, the highly visible Joe Batipagglia,
appeared on CNBC and said he was upgrading it to a strong buy. The following
day CNBC scheduled for an appearance of the CEO of this company to appear on
their show next week. I emailed CNBC and the reporter for this segment - Bill
Griffith - information about the company, including the medical research
reports. I received no reply.

The stock rose from $9 a share to $12 1/2 a share on the day of the interview.
The second the CEO appeared on TV I shorted the stock. It then fell sharply
into the close and now trades at less than $2 1/2 a share. Every single person
who bought the stock that day because of Joe Batipagglia or CNBC has lost
money.

This is how Wall Street and CNBC work. People who depend upon CNBC as their
primary source of financial information are fools. There are so many better
sources out there. Read the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times or
Investor's Business Daily. Subscribe to websites or newsletters who shoot
straight. You get what you pay for.

I hope something good will come out of this bear market and these hearings on
Congress. We need to see a real crackdown on the part of the SEC on analysts
who break the law by telling people to sell when they buy. It is nothing but
robbery and fraud.

And we need to see some real reform. We need to see it made a requirement for
analysts to disclose any conflicts of interests that they have when they give a
recommendation and we need to see the people who depend upon them for their
content - the CNBC talking heads - to report on these conflicts of interest.

If CNBC doesn't change they will suffer in the long run. People will get fed up
and stop watching, especially if the bear market continues. Its rating will
plummet. But that would be a good thing for the average investor because
anything that takes it place will be better.

Leigh

(08/06/2001; 02:29:06 MDT - Msg ID: 59077)

WorldNetDaily Covers Gold Petition

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=23917In this morning's WorldNetDaily, there's an article entitled "Canadian Challenges U.S. Gold Policy." It's about Barrie Walsh's petition (the one seeking 10,000 signatures) to U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill about our gold policy.

Belgian

(08/06/2001; 03:08:05 MDT - Msg ID: 59078)

@ Leigh and "THE" question * WHEN * (#59059)

With a large pot of fresh coffee and inspiration from Trail Guide(s) - This forum posters - and the recent Wood/Powell exchange...

* WHEN * : As soon as the " REVALUATION " of Gold is in progress. As soon as the global community accepts this process as a re-valuation.

Your/our/mine question of "when", has at minimum, 20 years of age. The intrinsic falsification is the result of a superb " CHAOS MANAGEMENT " ! Impossible to time and describe the unfolding of what is to come. And therefore a waste of energy in researching it.

Much more "CRUCIAL" is to agree on " GOLD " as the Universal *INDICATOR*. The one and only . The indicator that is crushing all other indicators with its overwhelming conviction, leaving no possibility for any kind of dualistic interpretations.

As long as a large majority continues to do the paper-dance and ignores Gold...the falsifications and artificiality circus goes on ! This message is the deep foundation of TG's thinking. All other indicators have lost their impact and function. Nothing can cry hard enough to stop that "chaos management". And it took me 20 years (yes,20 yrs) to understand. All this trough deductive elimination of all other aspects of the ever growing falsification.

*Systemic Collapse* and * Massive Financial Crisis* outcries, have lost all of their significance...because they aren't answering your "when" question. That's why the diarhea isn't stopped. The dollar is re-hydrating the global corpus ad infinitum. It is "THE DOLLAR", Leigh !
Its that emporor without clothes. He and he alone is the headmaster of the chaos management. Will he die on a sudden stroke or cancer slowly away....? I DON'T KNOW !

So, the second part of our fundamental insight is focused on the conviction and agreement that the dollar is the one and only instrument wich made chaos management possible.
And where do you see or hear these two convictions (gold + dollar) to be elaborated on a populist scale ? That is exactly what all collectivities are avoiding. They are only concerned about playing the music as to extend the paper dance.

*When* the Euro starts to challenge the dollar on equal terms...then the probability grows for collapse. So far, no other event (accident) could ignite the deroulement.

Is there another timing-indicator, than Gold, wich could signal, extreme danger, with enough conviction ? Sure there are. Interest Rates...yep, exactly...they are managed !
As long as we all accept (and believe) that paper is and has intrinsic value...the show goes on. We are all getting bored and annoyed, asking, again and again...when does this show ends ?

Glad to hear that Miningweb states : ...there are tons of vested interests ranged against gold and that is the unforgiving reality we swim against...(Tim Wood)

part I

Netking

(08/06/2001; 03:44:31 MDT - Msg ID: 59079)

"USA & Britain preparing attack" - Iraq

http://www.wnd.com/frame/direct.asp?SITE=www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/front_1.htmlSnippit:

Iraq says the U.S. Navy is tightening the embargo on the regime of President Saddam Hussein in preparation for an attack by Washington and its British ally.

Both U.S. and Gulf sources report that Washington is preparing a major attack on Iraqi military installations.

Iraqi officials said U.S. warships are intercepting ships headed for Iraq through the Persian Gulf, Middle East Newsline reported. They said the ships include regular lines from such Gulf Cooperation Council states as Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

Meanwhile, Iraqi State Minister of Foreign Affairs Naji Sabri said the Saddam regime will defend Baghdad against any U.S. or British attack . . .
- Netking

Belgian

(08/06/2001; 03:55:39 MDT - Msg ID: 59080)

@ Leigh *WHEN* part II

All kind of people everywhere are "HOLDING" and "USING" emperor Dollar. For no other reason than instinctive trust.
What is going to change and of course "when", that 30 year old proliferated perception ? The almighty dollar has "reserve"-status, there to be seen and profoundly accepted. Who the hell, dares to challenge this global authority ? Answer : Dictators are always replaced by (pseudo) democrats. The only ones that can challenge the dictator... are the GOLD HOLDERS ACCUMULATORS ! Nobody is going to use Interest Rates, to signal that the dictatorship has gone to far. Simply because the dollar is dictating the IRs.

Your "when", brings me once again to the question : can we (dwarfs)(yes, gold-dwarfs) *do something* ? Because, all that talking is so bloody cheap. Yes, do what ?
Answering the "when" is just stand up, leave the show, and buy physical gold ! Buy more physical gold and tell it to everyone who doesn't want to hear it ! How Naive, isn't it ? No it isn't, because I'm convinced that many others have much more interest and buying force than me the dwarf. But "the others" are seemingly much less convinced than I am. And they are a reason why the show (permanent currency depreciation) goes on and that not enough spectators are standing up and leave...and buy.

And most of the good will on helping to end the show is translated in renewed paper dance outside the theatre. Buying all kinds of paper and too much opportunism. I'm referring to goldproducers, gold-activists, gold funds, goldbugs, financial middlemen/analysts/advisors and others.
And I do understand very well "why". Simply, because I did it myself ! Not ashamed of it, anymore.

*When* 1 million responsible individuals out of 750 million economic affluent, can be convinced to buy 1 Kg of physical gold in 1 go...your/ou/mine, answer of "when" will appear.
Just a matter of reaching all these dollar-trustees and make them doubt about the emperor and his clothes.
That's why I mentionned the disappointing result of the petition. There are not enough authorities who reach these dollar holders with understandable (convincing) arguments !

Simply because the most universal, convincing argument is precisely the POG-BELL ! Get POG behind the 350$ barrier and your arguments are gaining weight ! And everyone who is contributing to the paper show (no names) is in se contra-productive in reaching that psychological signal.
I can't move 140.000 tonnes with my fist of coins, can you ? But one million dwarfs, equal one Giant. And if one Giant, yawns and awakens...other...

part II

Netking

(08/06/2001; 04:14:37 MDT - Msg ID: 59081)

China - Ag exports(?) to stop, Au imports to increase.

Snippit(Bridge News):

China's consumption of silver and gold is expected to rise through 2008 when the country's capital city of Beijing will host the Olympic Games, producer sources said on Monday.

Demand for silver and gold Beijing Olympics-related commemorations and souvenirs are seen increasing in the next few years, they said.

Rising consumption may cut China's exports of silver in the next few years but increase imports of gold, they added.
-----------------------------------------------------------
This a topic that Randy & I touched on here a while back, never underestimate the size of the market potential in this sleeping giant yes.

The "jury is still out" on whether there are/were in fact any substaintial Ag PRC exports. However if or whatever they were. . . domestic demand appears to be bullish and will be affecting domestic PM demand.

I can see it now . . . "A 1/oz commemorative olympic PM coin for every citizen!"(Ps don't forget the 6 pack of film too guys!)
- Netking

Belgian

(08/06/2001; 05:12:01 MDT - Msg ID: 59082)

@ Leigh "WHEN" part III

The present paper gambling show is the most pleasant swing-palace, ever experienced. Paper profits and losses, keep on swinging all over the place. What great fun. Gold and its valuation are the only big bully that can stop such clownery at once. But the gamblers are stoned drunk. etc...etc...Plenty of paper drinks on this party.

All media do report on this ongoing gambling-happening. That's where the public is and they (the public) want to see themselves pictured. Who dares to intervene (or can stop) and spoil that party ? And yes, not if but when ?
Answer : the ones who are not participating in the pleasures of paper illusions. Who are they : dollar-holders...stock-holders...bond-holders...? No, none of them.
The only miserable outcasts excluded from any party pleasures are physical goldholders (not traders) and some other producers of essential tangibles. The oil-boys, managed to exit (for good) their misery. They are the only ones that could organise a party of their own. Gold-owners stick with the company of other tangible (CRB-resources) producers : silver, coffee, cacoa, zinc, copper etc... oh les mis�rables. The one and only (!) ruler that is responsible for such an "EXTREME" situation is emperor dollar ! And this situation is not from a recent date but has been build during the past 30 years. I'm not re-inventing it and others have been explaining "why", before.
We are living in a service economy etc...

The dollar connection has never been considered. An extremely overvalued dollar that dwarfs basic essentials in their valuation. This is evidence to me for what I define as "falsification". An increasing amount of un-necessary (non vital) services are created daily, and valued with ever more paper. Almost obscene exposure of luxury.

We derived too far away from basic proportions. The dollar is the deriving current, who made this possible to happen.
Gold is the only commodity (sorry) that is strong enough to survive this anomaly and to head the tangibles revival.
This "KEY" strenght of gold is totally neglected, ridiculed and ignored. And not the least by the ones who have the largest amounts of gold in their posession. And that is frustrating and intriging at the same time.

No need to explain why it is frustrating but rather why it is intriging. And here we land again with the only argument left : Timing, the "WHEN" ! And than I plunge into TG's genial insights for helping us out. But there is something funny. Am I the only one to be TG obsessed ? Seems so ?
Is there nothing in this sublime vision what is attractive to other gold-holders (no names) ? Who is afraid of Virginia-Dollar-Wolf ? Is the dollar dogmatic to all (goldholders)? The same does apply for oil.
I'm not expecting that the official goldholders do mention anything about TG's visions. But what about the fragmented underground goldholders ????? Why do they focus on the GATA
ball and not the FUNDAMENTAL (!!!!) dollar-Gold Play (sorry TG) ? Sir Timothy ? Are side effects-attention and minimalization of Gold a policy ?

Pfffttt, Leigh...what an idea to come up with that "when" question of yours. It is already an aging question. It is "THE QUESTION". Gold, "to be or not to be".
And is the W.A. event the only evidence that "it" will happen in our lifetime ? Yes, I'm totally convinced it is !
But, again I humbly admit it took me quite some time to build on that conviction. I do understand that many others (wisely or not), remain very cautious on such an amount of conviction and faith. Pauze

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/06/2001; 06:40:04 MDT - Msg ID: 59083)

goldfan @ # 57950 and SteveH @ msg# 57920 and Pragmatic @ # 57954 and Belgian

Add me to the list of those who believe that the USD index is the key (trigger) to watch. We must look everywhere for signs but the trigger is the USDX. I have been watching currency charts for quite some time now. There are certain patterns that I have noticed. The Euro and the European currencies weigh in so heavily that you can watch the USDX and pretty well see what is happening to the Euro. You can watch the Euro and pretty well see what is happening to the Pound Sterling, the Deutsche Mark, the French Franc, which all move in lock step with EURO and move inversely with the USDX. The only way you can see what is happening to the Yen is to look at the Yen. The Canadian $ and the Australian $ plus some of the currencies in the countries located in South America appear to be nothing more proxies of the USD, for they seem to move in tandem with the USDX. They have moved inversely (as a group) in relation to the EURO and the European currencies. The other currencies, with the exception of the Yen, do not seem to matter in the sense that they do not carry enough weight to make any real difference. The Yen seems to be hanging out there all by itself. It can move in either direction. It is almost as if the Yen is the very key to the stability (the balance of power) between two great warring alliances.

Could this be a replay of what has happened many times in the history of the world? The last time the world was at war Japan appeared a fulcrum so to speak. It turned out in that case that Japan chose to move in the wrong direction and sided with the eventual losers. We now, again have a Japan who has not really chosen which direction to shift its considerable weight. There are similarities. Japan is overweight and unable to move decisively. If Japan strikes it will be as Pearl Harbor, because the only chance it has of being on the winning side with hopes of being on the very top is by surprise attack.

Lest there be those on the forum who cry foul, racism and blather of the like, let me say unequivocally that I am not referring to the Japanese as a people. They are Asians and no better or worse than Caucasians or any other race. Where these individuals or their ancestors were born has nothing to do with Japan, the Nation. Japan, the nation is still controlled by the same families as those who were in control during WWII.
The East is East and the West is West. The twain shall not meet. The West shall eat the East for breakfast. There has been no shift in TPTB in any area of the world, save maybe in intensity of power. International Bankers probably have a stronger grip on the controls in all areas of the world. Certainly the U.S. has given up on keeping the central bankers at bay. I suspect that they, the international bankers, also have much more control over Japan than they had in the 1940's

This time around may be different. The USD, the EURO and the YEN may all become one. There may be no need for all out military conflict this time. Japan is at the fulcrum again. My bet is that Japan will align with the EURO. As I have stated before, I believe that England will align with the EURO and it matters not, which one makes the first move, as the other will follow in short order. The U.S. government will probably capitulate with out a military exchange. It will be the first time in history that a nation will have given up world hegemony without a physical fight. While the battle rages the war has been lost.

I have always been in agreement with the Another scenario, in that what we have is a currency war and the real struggle is between the USD and the EURO. Our difference lies in that I prefer no hegemony at all in this world, including the hegemony of the UDS. Another does not seem to have a problem with the continuation of world hegemony. He just recognizes what is coming and is preparing to be in a position to make the best of the situation. This approach is certainly a pragmatic one. Mine is an idealistic one. There will be those in the U. S. who will hunker down and hold on to personal liberty should these events transpire. I hope to be one of those who hunker down. It, IMO, would foolish to take my approach without a goodly percentage of my wealth in the highest degree of portability. Most will docilely follow instructions and get in the truck bound for their relocation center.

I must return to the issue that initially prompted this post. The USDX is the key. If it were to stay at the current level or go higher for a very long period of time we would have a one trillion dollar annual trade deficit. The USDX will crack long before that one trillion dollar annual trade deficit arrives; however watching the trade deficit for timing will be of no use, for it moves too slowly. What will move downward precipitously is the USDX and when this happens gold and silver will join Alice. This is where the thoughts of ANOTHER and many of the thoughts on this forum converge. Hegemony will relocate to the EURO and those holding gold, especially those who are forced to use the USD for purposes of legal tender will find themselves with some powerful assets hitherto thought to be nearly worthless. Derivatives in any form including derivatives in physical metal will be worth only the intrinsic value of the paper they are written on. Physical metal only will do.

Very respectfully submitted

HBM

PS: Belgian, I just read your three-part when response to Leigh. I do not believe that my speculations here conflict with your thoughts there. Will read thoroughly when time permits.

PSS: The trigger (the U.S. Debt Trap) the twin deficits. We will see either 1 trillion $ annual gross U.S. budget deficits and or 1 trillion $ annual balance of payments deficits. (When? When the dollar tanks.

Belgian

(08/06/2001; 06:43:54 MDT - Msg ID: 59084)

The Paperization Festival

Global "ORGANIC" growth meets "SATURATION" .
The " importance " of the product "as such" comes secundary, these days.
The main focus is on the pseudo valuation (machinery) of the paper that must (is not) represent the product(s). It has become an *art* to promote your paper, competively. Be it paper currency or your company's stock. Dominance (currency) or hyperconcentration (stocks) is achieved with hyper-valuation of your paper and act strategically.

Hyperconcentration trough mergers and aqcuisitions is evidence of the saturation constraints of organic growth. Product producers have to sail away from the valuation of their product and have started on the valuation trend of their paper. Enormous paper-exchange, replaces the start up of succesfull new enterprises with productive debt.

This fashion is a very strong sign (timing sign) that an end is in sight. Goldproducers try to do exactly the same thing. Get their stock valuation up with nothing but the valuation of their product (gold) and then compete for what is sophistically named : consolidation !?

There is already so much unproductive debt around that this fashion of competitive (existant) paper exchange, represents, a big chunk, of the false growth or illusionary expansion.
This paper exchange is (still) succesfull, because it means great fun for all these paper holders. Competitive hyper valuation that has less and less to do with the underlying tangibles. Be it gold or whatever.

The crash will materialize when there is nothing left to be exchanged or to hyperconcentrate anymore. At that moment the fake valuationing of paper serves no purpose anymore.
Than we go back to the product and the profits that it can generate. Or simply boring and less exiting fundamentals of slow, steady, organic growth. Hurrah, the good old times !

This fenominon is easy to understand when we take the industry as an example. But the same has already happened with the dollar-paper. Starting in 1971 officially. And this seems to be much more difficult to understand and to admit. This is the drama !
And the awakening from this nightmare can't be progressive. It must happen with a shock. The shocking moment when the casino slams its doors.

When is everything in place for such a final shock ?
Answer : when a majority starts to realise that all kind of paper in its posession is ALMOST at the bottom the of the previous fake valuation in reverse. A Dow beneath 4.000 or Nas. less than 1.000. When your bonds start declining sharply due to interest rises (above 6,5% for USTB-30yrs)). When all the paper exchange news (mergers /acquisitions/IPO/ etc) excitement, fades completely away. When all paper starts to have a burned smell ! When you start to suspect that your savings are not what you tought they were. When one sees that your retirement stay on earth will be filled with less materialistic enjoyments. When the stop and reverse in declining interest rates is making you suspicious about the intrinsic strength of your currency. When your son/daughter stays unemployed for too long. When oilprices (and derivates), refuse to come down. When there is more and more parking place at the stores. Why do I think know...because it is in the paper...those very highly valued papers.:-)

We don't know "when", but will see it fast enough when it's there. Couldn't resist using that old same boring platitude.

Please do correct this Belgian student if there is something that doesn't makes sence or is irrelevant for believing in the eldorado within our lifetime.

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/06/2001; 06:59:05 MDT - Msg ID: 59085)

Agenda?

Sir TG,

Do you have an agenda? Do you have a certain audience to whom you to cater?

Are you of eastern descent who lives in the USA? Are you of western descent who has lived in the east but now lives in the USA?

I ask these questions because you seem to indicate that westerners are not capable of thinking like easterners. Perhaps you are right in this. I only speak and read in one language, but I have read somewhere that, there is a whole lot of difference between speaking and writing in a second language and thinking in a second language. I am going somewhere with this, so please be patient with me.

You seem to indicate to us "westerners" that you are of either "western roots" but are able (unlike the rest of the general population) to think like an "easterner", or that you are of "eastern roots" but are able (unlike the rest of the general population) to think like a "westerner". It is sort of like being bi-lingual. Let us call it "bi-thinkual", the ability to think in two different cultures. You seem to be convinced that "westerners" generally are not capable of becoming by-thinkual. I believe you mean in your writings that those of "western" thought have some sort of cultural handicap making them incapable of thinking like those of the "easterner".

If this be true, then could it not also be that the "easterner" is similarly handicapped in the opposite direction. And if so, could they not possibly be even more handicapped than we "easterners"? Why? Because "western" thinkers (Europeans) have been directing world economic activity through the control of national and international currency supplies for quite a good long time. In fact even you indicate that the coming shift in world reserve currency is to be from one region of the west (US Dollar) to another region of the west (European Euro).

I believe that it follows that the "western" thinker will be better off than the "eastern" thinker. Western civilization will understand more clearly as this scenario comes to fruition and may be more favored by and by. The "easterner" may be in a daze when the grand power move comes to the light of day, yet you seem to be telling us that the "easterner" will fare better because he is more disposed to have physical gold in his possession. Would that be a true observation?

Another point I would like to bring up: You seem to be content with the coming annihilation of the US dollar, even to the point of being, shall I say, pleased with the thought. Is this just pragmatism on your part or do you really welcome the coming Euro Hegemony?

I believe that I am a pragmatist also and do expect the transition of global currency power to come to these ends. However, I do not relish the thought. Do you relish the thought? It seems to me that no patriotic American could relish the thought. Nay, I say perish the thought!

Back to the subject of one being bi-thinkual, it is my judgment that Japan has shown the ability to adapt to "western" ideas more easily than any other peoples. As a nation of people, I would say that they are more capable of thinking in eastern and western contexts than any other significant economic unit. This would apply to the leaders in the government of Japan as well as the financial and industrial power brokers and permeates the whole population of the nation. A logical conclusion from the premise would be that it would also apply to the many U. S. Citizens of Japanese Descent.

I have been mulling over a line of reasoning for several months. To me, it is a given, that the UK will align with the Euro, but Japan is not a given. I believe that Japan will also eventually align with the Euro, but will do so, not willingly but of necessity. The trigger of necessity could be squeezed, either before or after the official move into the Euro camp by the British. The hegemony of the Euro is only a matter of time, but the great question mark is Japan.

Japan moves of necessity. Japan has always needed natural resources. Why did Japan turn on the U. S. in 1941. I submit that Japan was forced to do so. Japan perceived that U. S. dominance in its sphere of the world was going to cut it off from vital resources and destroy its economy and destiny. Germany and Japan had a common enemy: --the United States of America. History could very well repeat. If Japan perceives itself to be again, vulnerable to the U. S., out of necessity Japan will align with the Euro powers. It behooves the U. S. to avoid the alienation of Japan this time around. The U. S. is no longer a "sleeping giant", but rather "an overweight giant", lumbering to the edge of a cliff. The U. S. could guarantee (promise) Japan the resources it must have to survive in exchange for a merging of the two economies and currencies. The balance of power could save the day. Of course this will not happen because those in control of U. S. economy and government do not, in my opinion, have a desire to save the U. S. On the contrary, they see the only way to continue economic, political and military hegemony is by abandoning the dollar in favor of the Euro. These world controllers are not in the least bit nationalistic. The U. S. as a nation is the only thing standing in the way of the coming global political and economic union.

Japan and the U. S. are natural enemies. Germany and the U. S. are natural enemies. Germany and Japan will align with each other again out of necessity. This time around things will be different though. Germany will have the United Kingdom in its camp. Japan could be squeezed into submission for fear of China.

Very respectfully submitted,

HBM

Max Rabbitz

(08/06/2001; 07:09:38 MDT - Msg ID: 59086)

When? Leigh, Belgium et al.

Do you want those days to get here quickly? As an American I'm not in any great hurry. I wonder how the Canadian Dollar will be affected. Certainly business will be disrupted. Unemployment? Crime? Social collapse? Wars? Us dogs will have to go hide with what is in our bellies as the lions fight over scraps.

What about the Australian dollar? I assume the Pound will be no more. I would have prefered a quiet life with regular investments in producing assets. These are no longer attractive.

When? When does the herd of stampeding buffalo change course? Perhaps a gopher will pop it's head out of a hole and sneeze.

Max Rabbitz

(08/06/2001; 07:52:58 MDT - Msg ID: 59087)

Economic Revisions....a snippit

http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/217/business/Things_were_not_as_they_seemed+.shtmlLast week's revisions produced a very different view of 2000. Instead of growing 5 percent as originally thought, the US economy grew 4.1 percent. The profit revisions went in the same direction. There were big reductions in 2000 profits and smaller revisions for 1999 and 1998.

But the most interesting numbers may have been a more obscure set of figures that measure profit margins or the share of the economy's output that winds up as profits. Warren Buffett, a pretty fair investor, attaches great importance to the profit margin numbers. Buffett believes that the rise in those margins from the early 1980s to the late 1990s was a key driver of the great bull market of the last 20 years. As Buffett put it in a 1999 Fortune article, ''The value of an asset cannot over time grow faster than its earnings do.''

There's just one problem. Profit margins peaked in 1997 and have been dropping since. For the past few years some of the money that once flowed to profits flowed to the American worker, in the form of higher wages. In 2000, wages climbed 8.2 percent, up from the original estimate of 6.7 percent.

For investors, that shift was not good news. ''Corporate America is not doing as well as it was before,'' said Breimyer. American companies took on those added costs just as the economy was turning down. That mismatch explains why business has shed so many workers this year. Friday the government said that another 42,000 jobs disappeared in July.

The rewriting of history isn't finished. The government this week will release productivity numbers that are expected to show that the productivity miracle of the recent past was somewhat less miraculous. Rising productivity - the ability to turn out more without adding costs - was a key reason for investor optimism.

''The productivity revisions will be nasty for the equity markets,'' said Allen Sinai, chief economist at Decision Economics.

But investor optimism is hard to kill. Just ask Brian Bruce. Bruce is director of global investments at Panagora Asset Management, a Boston money management firm. Bruce regularly studies the earnings estimates produced by Wall Street analysts. What he has discovered is fascinating.

Analysts, he says, do a pretty good job of adjusting forecasts for the next quarter and the next year in response to news. But they rarely adjust long-term forecasts, typically five-year forecasts. Consider Cisco, an extreme example of what Bruce is talking about. The troubled tech company is expected to see its earnings fall 22 percent this year and another 33 percent next year. Yet the analysts who cover Cisco still put its five-year future growth rate at 25 percent.

Belgian

(08/06/2001; 08:26:10 MDT - Msg ID: 59088)

@ HBM

Sir, if it is true that Japan is holding 40% of total global savings...then you are very right, that we don't give them the attention into the dollar-equation.
It is so generally accepted that the world's second largest economy will automatically follow the first. This is not at all, that evident to me either.

Japanese savings are the antipode of the dollar's debt.
Or they continue to defend the dollar with bare teeth or are lured into another choice. But what is their only defense (for their saved dollar) : exactly...to accumulate more of it and refuse to valuate their own yen in real proportion to their work + savings. A very difficult choice for them.

And indeed, west stays west and east stays east. Japan has no outspoken stance or affinity with europ. Their choice will therefore be pragmatic. But the Koizumi measure of halting state expenditures is a significant signal in policy change. Not in line with US money expansion.

The reality that * NOONE * dares (and wants) to challenge the dollar "OPENLY" now and before...is the reason that all possible currency strategies must remain hidden.
Japan already threatened before, using the dollar's anti-material "GOLD", for putting pressure on the dollar's discipline (forgot name + date). Japanese choice, pro US, is therefore not as evident as it seems.
Japan is in a quite shizofrenic position with its Yen. US trade and Asian competition (say China). Probably they are condemned to follow the US and not allowed to make a free choice, due to China's hostility towards both, the US and Japan ? Do we have to exclude them from the balancing weight
for this pragmatic reason ? Japan is in the ban of its continuing economic contraction and awaits relief from the Yen position. If the dollar dives into hyperinflation...isn't Japan pragmatically condemned to follow as to counteract the chineze currency ? Aren't they waiting for the moment that dollars will start bidding for euros ? Here in europ, we don't see any signs of possible, euro-anticipation (openly) from Japan. Do you see some dollar aversion ?

Japan as a substantial dollarholder is limited in its choices. This limitation is handicapping all other dollarholders. Point is : where do they all suddenly realise they were and are still holding a rotting debt paper ? My previous chart reading suggested the breaking point in the DGX at 105/95 zone, where C-down of the ABC pattern (with ATH in '85) would materialize. (timing tool ?)

US trade deficit : who and why should stop it, especially if the dollar-propaganda is still functionning.
Are they buying time and postponing necessary measures in order to keep on putting the euro in a bad picture ?
What a stupid strategy. And at the same time...how important is the Gold bully ! Now I do understand why nobody dares to use Gold (squeeze) to challenge dollar the almighty. Enfin, I think I do ?

Leigh

(08/06/2001; 08:29:18 MDT - Msg ID: 59089)

Belgian, Max Rabbitz

Belgian, thank you for your three-part answer to my question. I am constantly reading the gold forums, trying to figure out how best to plan my family's finances. Both you and TG have indicated that the worm will turn at some point in our lifetimes. Every day I have to make decisions, such as deciding whether to re-roof the house this year or buy more gold, whether to restock my Y2K stash soon because hard times might be just around the corner, and so on. So many day to day decisions hinge on the "when." I already know the "what" (buy gold) and the "why" (dollar collapse).

I am going to keep re-reading your posts (I was up most of the night with a sick four year old, so I'm very tired now). I don't know who you are, but you seem very knowledgeable, and that's why I asked you. I appreciate your thoughtful answers.

Max Rabbitz, I understand what you're saying, and no, I don't look forward to the United States in shambles and my neighbors' lives ruined and possibly in danger. However, I think those things are inevitable. I am very thankful for the wise counsel I've found on this forum, because I'm mentally and financially prepared for such a future. I hope that the gold I've purchased will bless many lives, and that I won't be like Oscar Schindler at the end of the movie, thinking that if only I'd made some wiser decisions, I could have helped even more people.

Max Rabbitz

(08/06/2001; 08:41:51 MDT - Msg ID: 59090)

Eastern versus Western Thought

HBM et al.

After the Roman empire split into an eastern and western sections the economic systems also split. The Roman west continually degraded their coins by reducing percentage of Au and Ar purity, or size, or used clads, and relied on fiat decrees to establish monetary values. In the east the Bezant gold coin was never debased and was a standard used throughout the trading world for many hundreds of years. The west declined rapidly. The eastern empire lasted more than a thousand years. It came from and encompased the Greek world of Alexander and those people who first (or among the first?) to develope the concept of money and coins. My point is that to me the East, and Eastern thought begins with Constantinople and the Greeks and extends thoughout the ancient Greek world to India. I consider China and Japan as the far East.

Also, I do not believe TG thinks we Westerners are not capable of Eastern thought.....or he would not spend time hiking with us in the mountains. But I too am curious about his background. Perhaps someday.....

Leigh

(08/06/2001; 09:05:09 MDT - Msg ID: 59091)

HBM

TG has told us a number of times that he's an American, and I think he's from cowboy country somewhere. But it sounds as though he's been exposed to Eastern thinking, possibly in a number of different Eastern countries. I picture him as unselfishly trying to show us what he has learned (though without betraying any confidences) so that we might be prepared for what is to come.

Gold Trail Update

(08/06/2001; 09:37:26 MDT - Msg ID: 59092)

The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated

The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.

White Hills

(08/06/2001; 09:54:50 MDT - Msg ID: 59093)

HBM Msg#59085

Sir HBM, It seems pretty obvious to me what TG's"Agenda" is, although i feel that is a poor use of the word in respect to what TG is doing on the GOLD TRAIL. The very handle he uses TRAIL GUIDE should give you a clue as to what purpose is in showing us the way on the trail. You can follow or not , your choice. As to his audience, of course it is people who are interested in GOLD because this is a GOLD FORUM, DUH!!!. As to his refrences to Western thinking it is my understanding he is referring to the mindset, Paradigm, in respect to Gold and other economic principles not ability to think one way or the other.Lastly, I see no joy as evidenced by TG about the fall of the dollar. Maybe you should go back and read again his posts with an open mind. White Hills

Belgian

(08/06/2001; 10:30:48 MDT - Msg ID: 59094)

@ Max Rabbitz (# 59087)

* ALL PAPER VALUATIONS REFUSE TO ADJUST TO ECONOMIC REALITY*

Valuation scales, proportions, and references are all mixed up. We all follow the roller coaster loops and bents as drunken sailors. Be it CISCO or an oil company. Bonds or currencies...nothing listens and submits to common sense anymore. An unreal spectacle with insane and limitless extremes. And this in under and overvaluations as well.
And how can we possibly price-valuate when the currency in wich we have to express the number (price) is false in itself. Future profits in US$...but what kind of US$ ? A strong one or a weakened ? And than again, strong or weak against what ?

Future valuations will become more and more * UNPREDICTABLE *. Valuation volatility has already reached its top.
The silence and calm of POG is reassuring. Let us consider this as kind of a signal. Coommmeeee tooooo meeeeee !

Gandalf the White

(08/06/2001; 10:41:47 MDT - Msg ID: 59095)

Thank you FOA for allowing us to be able to listen to the meeting attended by you and MK !

Very illuminating (together with all your normal "markers")
<;-)

site steward

(08/06/2001; 10:46:19 MDT - Msg ID: 59096)

The Fed conducts open market operations to serve, typically, two purposes

With the market in federal funds trading at 3.75 percent today, there was no need for such operations to serve the primary objective of "defending" the FOMC target.

Yet, today the Fed's Trading Desk participated in $8.25 billion in repurchase agreements (from 3 to 29 days in duration). Unless you pause to consider for yourself the nature of the other objective being served by such open market operations as these, this information shall continue to be the small flashing warning light unheeded upon your instrument panel as you pilot your portfolio through time.

Today, among others, is a good day to buy gold.

Max Rabbitz

(08/06/2001; 12:24:13 MDT - Msg ID: 59097)

Leigh

Good Response. Oscar Schindler.

So many people around me are oblivious to the danger. They have confidence in a system they do not understand. Almost like children. I wonder what the children will do when they find they have been misled? It's taken me some time to realize that there is more involved here than just making a good investment.

site steward

(08/06/2001; 13:14:08 MDT - Msg ID: 59098)

ATTN: the poster who would be known as "GD"

As I tried to e-mail your password, the address you provided on the registration form proved to be non-functional. Please contact sitemaster@usagold.com to receive your posting code.

R

site steward

(08/06/2001; 13:37:08 MDT - Msg ID: 59099)

10% of "alot" is quite a lot

This comes from a sad article that says Indian parents are beginning to prefer to include "government saving instruments" (i.e., bonds of some sort) as dowry gifts for their daughters. But nevertheless...

---India's consumption of gold is likely to go up by five to 10 percent each year in the next few years due to increasing population, rising incomes and fashion trends, traders said.

According to the industry-funded World Gold Council (WGC), gold demand in India reached 855 tonnes in 2000 against about 833 tonnes in the previous year.---

Estimates at 10% for years 2001 through 2003:
855 + 85 = 940 tonnes
940 + 94 = 1034 tonnes
1034 + 103 = 1137 tonnes

This puts us at nearly half of annual global production potentially consumed by India alone. Where shall the gold come from to feed China's new demand, not to mention the rest of the world in a dollar-based crisis?

Relative valuations on the yellow metal are out of kilter and therefore must rise (along with price) to achieve a meaningful balance.

Further on these lines, the article actually gives a better hint at the pace of India's gold demand for this year, 2001:

---Gold consumption rose by 23 percent to 243 tonnes in January to March this year over the same period of 2000 due to buoyant demand in the marriage season and retailers re-stocking, the WGC said.---

Today, among others, is a good day to buy gold.

Randy

Netking

(08/06/2001; 13:52:12 MDT - Msg ID: 59100)

Delta and Goldfields are talking . . . again

http://smh.com.au/news/0108/07/biztech/biztech12.htmlSnippit:

Mid-sized gold producers Delta Gold and Goldfields yesterday confirmed they were looking at merging, sparking a new phase of industry rationalisation.

Confirmation of the merger talks, aimed at creating an $842 million entity, comes as Australian gold companies continue attempts to lure investors back into the gold sector.

"In recent months, Delta and Goldfields have held preliminary strategic discussions, including a possible merger," Delta said yesterday.

A merger of the two firms would create a one-million-ounce-a-year gold producer, which in turn could become a takeover target for offshore predators such as Barrick Gold, Placer Dome, Anglo Gold and Gold Fields of South Africa . . . "
-Netking

Netking

(08/06/2001; 14:20:08 MDT - Msg ID: 59101)

"Options for us to strike Iraq being examined" - USA

http://www.menewsline.com/stories/2001/august/08_06_1.htmlSnippit:
"The Bush administration is examining options to reduce the escalating capability of Iraq's military.

Officials said the White House and Pentagon agree that President Saddam Hussein's military must come under heavy U.S. attack. But they said the administration has still not concluded on targets and goals. . ."
-----------------------------------------------------------
Strategic thinking seems to be confirm that it must be either sooner or later . . . depending on how big a problem they want to tackle yes.
-Netking

site steward

(08/06/2001; 14:36:30 MDT - Msg ID: 59102)

You don't have to be a master chartist to see a fledgling uptrend

http://www.usagold.com/WGCimages/price010806.gifCourtesy of WGC; weekly report to follow.

R

site steward

(08/06/2001; 14:43:40 MDT - Msg ID: 59103)

Notable excerpts of this week's WGC commentary

http://www.usagold.com/wgc.html... the German Government's issue of 12 tonnes of commemorative One Deutschmark gold coins ... full issue sold within the hour and the coins have since been trading at a premium in the secondary market.

... the liberalisation of the Chinese gold market continues ...

... further element of deregulation in the market is under debate in Russia ... whether to lift the 5% export duty currently levied on gold ...

... effective September 15th, all repayments of the Gold Bonds Scheme 1993 will be made through the Reserve Bank of India, with the State Bank of India ... the natural conclusion of the SBI [State Bank of India] programme which had originally been due to close on September 14th 1999, but which was given a two-year extension.

R

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/06/2001; 15:38:24 MDT - Msg ID: 59104)

White Hills @ # 59093

Sir:

Please pay me no mind. You can follow or not, your choice.

Respectfully,

HBM

site steward

(08/06/2001; 16:26:02 MDT - Msg ID: 59105)

HEADLINE: Euro Rally May Stall as Investors Most Bullish Since March

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Currency%20World&tp=ad_uknews&T=news_storypage99.ht&ad=world_currency&s=AO27hgxTaRXVybyBS---New York, Aug. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Investors are more bullish on the euro than at anytime since March, optimism that may leave the currency vulnerable to weak economic reports in coming days.

Currency investors who are long euro futures, betting the currency will rise, outnumber those who are expecting it to fall by 16,083 contracts, the biggest gap since March 6, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. ... An extreme bullish slant to investors' euro holdings can sometimes point to losses ahead for the currency. Such statistics are a sign many investors have already placed their bets on the currency, leaving fewer new buyers available to extend the rally.---

Well, that's certainly ONE way for analysts to spin this news. However, that sentiment might not apply well beyond the speculative trading pits of those futures markets. It seems to ignore the potential for continuing growth of an underpinning support based on the action of spot forex markets -- based on economic fundamentals of a different stripe.

Let's reread the last excerpted sentence: ---"Such statistics are a sign many investors have already placed their bets on the currency, leaving fewer new buyers available to extend the rally."---

(You can almost hear the "strong dollar" crowd preparing to shout down gold with similar words, can't you?.) Where this particular futures market analyst seems to see a given pool of speculators perhaps running out of money for the intitial margin payments on new contracts, he seems to have lost sight of the world population at large, doing what must be done "just to get by". As it turns out, sometimes life IS more than "just a gamble".

R

auspec

(08/06/2001; 18:20:53 MDT - Msg ID: 59106)

JMB...... You There?

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/chapman080701pv.htmlFrom Robert Chapman at GE:
".....the Russians expect dollar devaluation soon. That is borne out by the massive accumulation of gold by a syndicate composed of Russians, Indians, Chinese, Arabs and the Rothschilds interests led by George Soros. Be patient when gold blows and the dollar breaks, $500 gold will simply be a stopping off place for it to catch its breath."

Note: Rothschild interests did come out with a call for higher POG this year.

Boxman

(08/06/2001; 18:37:26 MDT - Msg ID: 59107)

Explanation for apparently incorrect unemployment numbers?

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/This is a good an explanation as I have read. Opinions?

Snippett***
And "in the past 50 years," writes analyst Tony Glennon, "the US economy has never experienced a full 1% increase in unemployment without a full-scale recession..." As jobs go, so goes the economy. Easy enough, right?

*** Well, maybe not. Here's an interesting little observation from Bill King, a trader in Chicago: "In 1985, the Reagan BLS understood that white collar workers jettisoned by Fortune 500 companies were being assimilated into start-up enterprises - tech firms - or forming their own companies. The government could not count that type of job creation, so they had the BLS computer add 35,000 jobs/month to employment. This is the 'plug' or 'bias' factor - jobs the government can't count, but believe are being created."

*** Under Bush, The Elder, the 'bias' was increased to 55,000 jobs per month...and again under Clinton the bias was boosted to 155-165k. Where it remains today...

*** "We now have an environment where high tech jobs are being destroyed, not created, and the BLS computer still assumes 155k+ jobs are being created that they can't count," says King. "If job creation during a decade and a half boom couldn't be counted, how can BLS count job destruction in small entities?"

*** Hmmmnn... as Eric reports below, the BLS numbers had a negative effect on Friday's markets. What would happen, in this post-bubble era, if the BLS computers should delete X amount of jobs per month rather than tack on 150k?

MarkeTalk

(08/06/2001; 18:40:27 MDT - Msg ID: 59108)

Tuesday's Productivity Data Could Cause Panic in U.S. Stock Market

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010803/bs/markets_crash_dresdner_dc_2.htmlThe above-referenced link was brought to my attention early Saturday by a friend of the firm when he called me at home. I had not seen it so I was rather intrigued by what Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein had to say. The premise is that the "productivity miracle" of the 1990s is all a mirage and that investors will come to their senses with the release of tomorrow's report and begin to dump their stocks at any price. Although the article is short, it reminds me of something I would read, written by either Nick Guarino of Wall Street Underground fame or by "perma bear" Martin Weiss of the Safe Money Report. To see a "respectable" investment banking firm screaming "crash" is most curious. Perhaps their bearishness stems from the fact that the U.S. Dollar has topped out (on July 5th per an earlier posting) and that the tide has turned against both the U.S. Dollar and the U.S. stock market. It should also be noted that this group is European based and is not in New York City and thus they have lots to gain from a declining U.S. Dollar and a rising Euro.

After reading this article, I was reminded of another article about the Bradley Indicator which has been calling for a stock market top around August 6-7th and then a downhill slide until early December. I have watched this indicator over the years and it tends to be 75% reliable, which means it has a very high degree of probability in this business. Couple this fact with ongoing events in the Middle East and a possible European/Russian connection to sell off the U.S. Dollar on or about August 19th (as reported in an earlier post last Wednesday) and we have the makings of some exciting market action. One client of mine suggested today that the U.S. Administration is talking about bombing Iraq now ostensibly to curtail Saddam Hussein's war machine and missile capabilities, but the real story is to get overseas investors to hold onto their U.S. Dollars instead! Remember what happened during the Gulf War? The U.S. Dollar and U.S. stocks were the best performers! Do they expect us to behave as Pavlov's dogs, slobbering all over ourselves when the bombing begins? Only time will tell and we don't have long to wait. Personally, I will be watching the U.S. Dollar Index, crude oil and gold from this point forward. Also, if the Dow Jones Industrial Average breaks under 10,000 decisively, then watch out below for the unravelling of the U.S. stock market will have begun.

Black Blade

(08/06/2001; 18:47:50 MDT - Msg ID: 59109)

RE: wiley msg#: 59073) - Pobre Prairie Chicken

I am on the road right now (Sturgis Rally) and just checked in before having a meal with some friends (even some Kalifornian Grasshoppers). Your post caught my attention. It is interesting to read the lies perpetrated by the environmentalists' extremists.

Note: Steve Capra of the New Mexico Wilderness Alliance disagrees. He said two frequently drilled areas - the San Juan Basin in the Four Corners area and the Permian Basin in the southeastern part of the state - are proof of the damage the oil industry can do. Power lines, pipelines and gas rigs cover the land and the smell of gas pollutes the air, Capra said.

For one, this is a natural gas (methane) project. Natural gas is odorless and the odor detected by the homeowner is added after the fact by the NG utility for safety reasons. Two, the pipelines are underground and are connected to the wellheads at the site. Three, there are very few drill rigs left anymore as most went to the scrap heaps after the last energy crash.

As far as the Prairie Chickens being upset about the drilling, infrastructure, etc. I would not know. In the Powder River Basin, Wyoming we have coveys of Prairie Chickens en masse. In fact here we refer to them as "herds." They are stupid birds as you can practically walk right up to them. So I don't see them as feeling one way or the other about the presence of man. We also have herds of deer and antelope. They seem to relish the ground water that is made available. The ground water is also made available for drilling where it infiltrates back into the ground. I guess these people need a cause to make their lives somewhat meaningful and to "feel" as though they can "make a difference" in the World. Man seems to always have a high opinion of himself and his abilities over nature. In the overall scheme of nature, man is insignificant. Quite an amusing article - Thanks. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/06/2001; 19:17:23 MDT - Msg ID: 59110)

Leigh @ # 59091

Lady Leigh

One can be an American, a citizen, without necessarily having been a natural born citizen. A naturalized citizen is in similar circumstance as an adopted child. The adopted child has all the legal rights of a biological child. But the adopted child, unless the facts of adoption are kept from the child, always seems to yearn for the biological parents. I am not suggesting that TG is anything at all. I am interested and my curiosity arises from the fact that he does not seem to indicate any strong loyalties to the U.S.

Is it unhealthy to ask pointed questions? I am an American also. My loyalties lie with the United States of America only as I am very nationalistic. Being nationalistic is not so politically correct anymore. Nationalism (I do not mean Fascism � national socialism) was welcomed, even encouraged, when I was in high school 36 years ago. Things began to change about that time. The change, to be sure, has been accelerating since the early to mid-sixties.

Bill Clinton represents that change. We are the same age and we are both male in gender but the similarity stops there. I was drafted into the U. S. Army and went to Viet Nam. He avoided the draft and went to the Soviet Union. I love the constitution of the United States and he treats it with disdain. I could go on and on but you get the picture: Bill Clinton has done great damage to most everything I stand for. I offer this as an illistration as as to why I would like to know as much as possible about a person who has as much influence the readers in cyber land.

ANOTHER and FOA/TG are a great mystery to me. I can understand the need to keep certain confidences if you are in high places or if you are passing along information from high places. I am not asking TG to compromise himself or his sources. I just happen to be a very skeptical person by nature and would like to know more about him. If he were a Bill Clinton sort, I would certainly like to know it. If he were a John Adams sort or Thomas Jefferson sort, I would certainly like to know it. There are those out there who would say that this is personal and none of my business. Fine, say it. If this is a free country you have a right to call my questions into question. I have the privilege of asking pointed questions, questions, which I suspect are of interest to others as well. Unless my privileges are revoked I intend to ask pointed questions which are of interest to me.

I would prefer to think that TG is a patriotic U. S. citizen. He has given us no real indication as to whether he or is not. I would like for him to say so. He may choose to ignore me. I will prod him again someday if I get the chance even if it bears no fruit. This should be understandable. He does not have to give me the light of day. He can ignore me and usually does. That is fine.

Might I say that his thoughts and ideas could and should be defended by those who care to do so. However, I was hoping he might answer for himself. He is not at a loss in the area of communication, that's for sure. My post was not meant to be a personal character attack. I was trying, hoping to bring him out of the mist.

I personally would like to know all I can about a person who writes such things as he does. Surely you can see that I meant no harm to him or anyone else. I guess what I am trying to say is that I already knew the same things that you knew about TG. I was hoping for new information. If all of his readers respond for him then the chances of a response from him are lessened.

We shall always be friends. I do hope you take no offence at this post. I took none at yours but took your post as an opportunity to more clearly explain my purpose in the post. Had I chosen to post this to White Hills instead of you all would have treated my post as a vindictive counter punch. Most who read this forum are aware of our friendship and common interests. So you see why I singled you out for this post. No one could think that I would mean you any harm.

Very respectfully,

HBM

PS: TG if you read this I would like to ditto Gandalf the White Post #: 59095

abudahhab

(08/06/2001; 19:18:21 MDT - Msg ID: 59111)

Newsmax.com - Greenspan Reportedly to Retire

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2001/8/6/193139.shtmlExclusive: Greenspan Reportedly to Retire
Wes Vernon
Tuesday, Aug. 7, 2001
WASHINGTON - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will announce his retirement by the end of year, administration sources have told NewsMax.com.
The longtime head of the world's most powerful bank has already indicated to administration officials that they should begin a search for a replacement.

Greenspan, 75, who has savored the limelight for more than a decade, is now said to be anxious to make the move, and hopes to be in the private sector sometime in the first half next year.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, an administration source said that Greenspan may be trying to end his public career on a "high note," as more evidence mounts that the U.S. is teetering on the edge of a recession.

Several Wall Street insiders said that such a move by Greenspan would probably be a smart move, considering he could easily become the fall guy for economic slowdown.

Already, top officials in the Treasury Department and the president's economic advisers have expressed simmering upset with the Fed chairman, though relations between him and President Bush are said to be excellent.

Federal Reserve spokeswoman Michelle Smith refused to confirm or deny the report, saying it was Fed policy "not to comment on rumors."

Greenspan, appointed by President Ronald Reagan to replace Chairman Paul Volker on Aug. 11, 1987, has been the most influential and high-profile Fed chairman.

He was reappointed to successive four-year terms as chairman by Presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton. Bush appointed him to a full 14-year term as a member of the board in 1993.

Role in Clinton's Victory

Reportedly, G.H.W. Bush was miffed by Greenspan's handling of interest rates, which led to a brief economic downturn shortly before the 1992 election, when Bush lost to Clinton.

Greenspan's latest term as the Fed's top man began June 20, 2000, having been picked again by Clinton. A resignation before the end of this year would come more than two years before his chairmanship expires.

Critics and supporters of Greenspan acknowledge that he has presided over the largest economic boom in modern history.

That boom is appearing to fizzle, after a stock market technology bubble burst in March 2000.

Noted stock investor Sir John Templeton called the 1990s stock market run-up as "the biggest financial insanity ever in any nation in history."

The administration has applauded Greenspan for moving to restimulate the economy. He has cut interest rates six times this year, frantically cutting 2.75 points from the Fed rate, which reached a recent peak of 6.5 percent last year.

Administration sources have welcomed those steps and anticipate another rate cut in two weeks when the full Federal Reserve Board meets on Aug. 21.

Still, sources reveal that administration officials blame Greenspan for the economic morass. Recent corporate earning reports show a fall of 17 percent during the same period last year, with little hope for a quick turnaround.

Trying to Help Gore?

"Greenspan knew the economy was overheating, and he waited to the last possible moment to raise rates," the source said, suggesting that the chairman did not want to hurt Al Gore's chances in the 2000 election, and waited to long to put apply brakes to an economy that was racing too fast.

During the 1990s as consumer debt soared, tripling since 1992, Greenspan kept rates low. Late into the Clinton administration, he led the Fed as it raised the Federal Funds Rate six times, beginning in November 1998, to 6.5 percent in May 2000.

Greenspan was well aware that interest rate changes have a lag effect of three quarters, meaning his increased effort to cool the economy began having an effect only in the last quarter of 2000, after the presidential election.

Cozy With Clinton

Other administration sources told NewsMax.com they have been flabbergasted to learn of how cozy the Federal Reserve chairman was with the Clinton White House and Treasury Department officials in coordinating monetary policy.

During previous administrations, the White House and the Fed chairman, for their own political reasons, have sought to stay at arm's length.

One source noted that when Reagan asked to meet Fed Chairman Volker for the first time, Volker declined to meet him in the Oval Office. The pair agreed to meet on neutral ground at a conference room in the Treasury building next to the White House.

Overtures to Bush

Greenspan has sought to make friends with the current Bush White House in the most unseemly way. Critics of Greenspan leaked to columnist Robert Novak that Greenspan had engaged in inappropriate politicking at the White House.

Novak reported that on the day before an interest rate cut in April, the Fed boss "was roaming corridors of the White House West Wing � shielded from the eyes of inquisitive reporters." He visited Vice President Dick Cheney and National Economic Adviser Laurence Lindsey and "presumably tipped them off about his unexpected move."

Some Bush administration officials have been privately critical of Greenspan for being too slow in cutting interest rates. Nonetheless, says Novak, they have adhered to a rigid rule against public comment on the Federal Reserve.

Treasury Secretary Paul O�Neill and Greenspan have a friendship that goes back to the days of the Ford presidency. They still meet regularly.

Black Blade

(08/06/2001; 19:28:26 MDT - Msg ID: 59112)

Gas prices will rebound next year from nuclear outages, analysts say

http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=TOPST&ARTICLE_ID=111644
Snippit:

HOUSTON, Aug. 6 -- Natural gas prices may rebound next year thanks to decreased nuclear power production, Raymond James & Associates said. Nuclear power is headed for a "cliff" next spring as power plants go off line for planned maintenance outages, analysts said. Demand for natural gas will increase on the strength of reduced nuclear power generation. Lower nuclear generation should boost gas demand 1-1.5 bcfd by May 2002 to serve gas-fired generation, said Fred Schultz, analyst with Raymond James in Houston. He estimated nuclear power generation replaced 1.5-2.5 bcfd of gas demand in gas-fired electric generation this summer. That offset is expected to continue into the fall when gas prices will finally bottom out, Schultz predicted. By next spring, gas demand and prices should improve dramatically, Schultz said, creating an "astounding" 3.5 bcfd swing in gas demand. Schultz predicts almost a 17% month-over-month switch from nuclear power to gas fired generation from April to May of 2002.

Black Blade: Add in a cold winter and the economy is in trouble as blackouts and increasing higher energy costs resume. So much for the Barron's article calling for a "Glut of Energy." That could be a sign of things to come. The Economist had a similar article calling for a "Glut of Oil" in 1998 just before the current energy crisis began. These periodicals have been great contrary indicators. You can't hold barrels of oil as portfolio insurance - but you can hold other hard assets like gold and silver.

Friends just arrived - Got some beer "Drinkin" to Do.

Leigh

(08/06/2001; 19:44:24 MDT - Msg ID: 59113)

Hill Billy Mitchell

HB, if someone runs up to you and tells you your house is on fire, would you ask them what their deep beliefs and motives are? Or would you hurry to check out the information for yourself?

I don't know how Trail Guide feels about the Constitution or whether he's an American patriot. However, I do know that he's spent a vast amount of time here trying to warn us about the threat to the dollar and the need to buy gold. I have seen and heard enough to believe he's right. And I've adjusted my portfolio accordingly.

Are you going to ask ANOTHER about his deep beliefs and whether he's an American patriot? (That would be funny!) We know he believes very differently from us. But his message is still valid and based upon economic truths.

I know from your previous postings that you also believe that America as we know it is doomed and rightfully so. Trail Guide, whatever his personal belief system, should be applauded for trying to explain the whys, hows, and whens. He seems to know what the other side is up to, and he's willing to share some of his knowledge with us. Let's thank him rather than put him through an inquisition about things that are none of our business.

Cavan Man

(08/06/2001; 19:58:18 MDT - Msg ID: 59114)

Leigh

Sir HBM is from the "Show Me State".

Cavan Man

(08/06/2001; 19:59:25 MDT - Msg ID: 59115)

Hill Billy Mitchell

Thank you for your service to our country.

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/06/2001; 20:12:36 MDT - Msg ID: 59116)

Leigh @ # 59113

Lady Leigh,

He also has done a masterful job of making the coming hegemony of the Euro sound like the greatest idea since Swiss cheese, no? I rather think it is an example of two wrongs (US$ hegemony and Euro hegemony)making a right. My position does not detract from his. By the way, which ANOTHER were you referring to?

Very respectfully,

HBM

PS: I am sure he is smiling at this banter. I am. It is about time things livened up around here.

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/06/2001; 20:16:36 MDT - Msg ID: 59117)

Cavan Man @ # 59115

Sir,

My privilege and my honorable duty. You are welcome. I am not sure, but I do not recall anyone ever saying that to me. I was not soliciting or expecting any thanks but it made me feel especially good.

Very respectfully,

HBM

Leigh

(08/06/2001; 20:29:13 MDT - Msg ID: 59118)

Hill Billy Mitchell

Well, hey, HB, you don't have to agree with everything he says to know the dollar's doomed! Let him believe what he wants to believe. I don't agree with all that European Union talk either, but I just scroll on past it.

I'm talking about the ANOTHER who said "All paper will burn." Is there an imposter??

Max Rabbitz

(08/06/2001; 20:38:57 MDT - Msg ID: 59119)

abudahhab....very interesting.

http://www.newaus.com.au/aatemp267frank.htmlLooks like the thrill is gone for Mr. G. But the damage is done. Did Mr. G. really try to leak insider information to Dick Cheney and Laurence Lindsey before the last rate cut? Who else has he been leaking to? Perhaps when this is over we will abolish the Federal Reserve and it's cabal of bankers. A second American Revolution. Maybe we can fund the new treasury with HBM's gold stash.

Lowering interest rates and increasing "liquidity" won't solve the problems despite what Larry Kudlow thinks. Massive bad investments in a bubble economy, made possible by fractional reserve banking, destroyed real assets that should have been put to better use, such as energy.

Netking

(08/06/2001; 22:51:04 MDT - Msg ID: 59120)

US lay-offs hit record high

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1476000/1476558.stmSnippit:

Fears over the health of US companies have been rekindled by a report showing the number of jobs cut last month surged 65% to a record high. The number of layoffs announced by US firms in July hit 205,975, employment firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas said.

The figure, the highest since the report was first compiled in 1993, was more than three times the number of redundancies recorded in July 2000 . . . .
-Netking

Black Blade

(08/06/2001; 23:43:35 MDT - Msg ID: 59121)

U.S. firms' layoff plans skyrocket

http://www.msnbc.com/news/610106.asp?0si=-
Snippit:

NEW YORK, Aug 6 - Layoffs announced by U.S. companies soared 65 percent in July compared to June, hitting the largest single-monthly job-cut total recorded by outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. since it began its survey in 1993. ANNOUNCED JOB CUTS rose to 205,975 in July, up from 124,852 in June, more than three times the job cuts recorded in the same month last year. In the first half of 2001, U.S. corporations said they planned to cut 777,362 jobs, more than three times the number announced during the first six months of last year.

Black Blade: Not good. The talking heads and Pied Pipers are spinning this as not real. One Pied Piper (or Harpy) named Diane Swonk claimed that the numbers are lies. Indeed, it must be a "conspiracy" ;-)

Black Blade

(08/06/2001; 23:53:30 MDT - Msg ID: 59122)

Things were not as they seemed

http://www.boston.com:80/dailyglobe2/217/business/Things_were_not_as_they_seemed+.shtml
Profits of the great bull market weren't as hot as we all thought

Snippit:

Rising profits were one of the pillars of the great bull market of the late 1990s. Now it looks as if that pillar was not as sturdy as we thought. The government last week quietly revised its measure of profits for the years 1998,1999, 2000. The new calculations show that corporate profits were actually about $135 billion less than originally estimated. If you think this is news only an accountant could love, think again.

In economics, profits are inextricably linked to other things, such as the cost of labor and productivity, both of which now look less dazzling after the revisions. Add up all the new numbers and the conclusion is a depressing one. ''The new economy was not as good as it first appeared,'' said Fred Breimyer, chief economist at State Street Corp.

Richard Berner isn't so sure. ''The consensus forecast on earnings for next year is still way too high,'' said Berner, chief US economist at Morgan Stanley. If Berner is right, and we are all still wearing rose-colored glasses, then investors may be in for some future shock when reality fails to meet expectations.

Black Blade: What? Profits are important? Maybe there is something to tomorrow's prediction after all - though the timing is probably off.

Netking

(08/07/2001; 00:03:31 MDT - Msg ID: 59123)

Auspec / Belgian - Silver short positions

Sir McAuspec said(59034): " . . . per your recent post #59021: "Silver is a very, very small market {compared with gold}, however the short position and leasing is much greater for its size than that of gold or any other commodity we could compare it with."

I really have no reason to doubt this statement, but would love for you to expound on it a bit, especially in relationship to the sise of the silver market vs the gold market. The gold short position is likely in the vicinity of 15,000 tons with CB overall holdings {as far as we know} at 32,000 tons. How does silver 'quantify' in relationship to these numbers? . . . The supply/demand numbers have been out of kilter and analyzed for all to see clearly since at least 1993 with Jim Blanchard's "Silver Bonanza" was put out. The manipulation was unapparent at that point, however. It is mostly guilt by association including the silver manip with the gold manip. Very grateful for the PE giving away their hand and letting us in on a major accumulation . . . McAuspec
-----------------------------------------------------------
Sir Belgian said:(59028)Indeed Good Knights...if there are some very strange, fundamental anomalies, not easely to be explained...we can always blame it on the unknown effects of the massive, overwhelming derivatives ! We and many others are surely underestimating the devastating effect of these derivatives on the natural proces of valuations ! I've always called it "speculative mania" but have been corrected by TG into rightout naming it "Gambling". The temporary periods of "price containment", (Rich) are probably the moments that the gamblers are stucked and the game is immobilized, waiting for some new blood.
------------------------------------------------------------

Good comments/questions (per above) Sir McAuspec & Sir Belgian.

I asked Ted Butler(PM analyst)some questions on this (he knows this market better than anyone)& he very kindly replied with some excellent analysis(posted below).

There are three components to the silver short position - COMEX, OTC, and leasing/forward selling. OTC (including the LBMA) statistics are unavailable or unreliable, so that leaves only the other two for analysis. But there is
an OTC position, that adds to the other two. The COMEX silver short (futures and call options) position is over 131,000 contracts (77,645 futures, plus 54,616 call options, as of the close of business 8/3/01), or over 655 million ounces of silver. Since world mining production is under 600 million, and because no one can verify more than 150 million ounces of silver bullion, the COMEX silver short position is greater than either world production, or world verified inventories.

If you take that short position, and do the same thing for every other listed (exchange traded) commodity, and compare the quantity of the commodity represented in the combined futures and call option open interest to world production and verified inventories, only in COMEX silver will you find the short paper position exceeding world annual production and/or known inventories. Only in COMEX silver, is the listed short position larger than all the silver mined in the world for a whole year, and also larger than all known world inventories. Ask yourself a question - how is it possible that there can there be a bigger short position of anything real? And, if you could imagine a short position bigger than what existed in the real world -
what do you think the effect of establishing that short position on the price would be? In fact, I wrote an article about this, a few years ago - http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_98/butler020198.html

As far as leasing/forward selling, the leasing short position is in addition to the COMEX (and OTC) short. It's easier to track the short leasing position in gold, because the miners have to report their forward sales. That's more
complicated in silver, because fabricators and users also borrow metal, but there are some big short miners like ABX and Pasminco. The key to the silver short lease position is that, while it is only a fraction the size of the gold position dollar-wise, it is much bigger ounce-wise. In gold, we can document a 5000 ton lease short postion. That's two years production, or 160 million ounces, or almost $50 billion. In silver the same two years prouction
comes to only $5 billion, or 10% of total gold loans, on a dollar basis. . But, it is also a billion ounces of silver, or more than 6 times the amount, in ounces, of the gold short. This billion ounce silver short position also explains where in the world we got the silver for the deficit over the past decade, with no increase in price.

Because metal leasing is all about physicals being dumped on the market, the end of leasing is all about physicals not being dumped on the market. Because the physical numbers in silver leasing are so extreme, as is the entire
silver short position, the effect on the price of silver to the downside has been so extreme. But, if you want to talk price extremes, wait'll see the effect of all this shorting on the price of silver on the way up.View Yesterday's Discussion.

Black Blade

(08/07/2001; 00:12:21 MDT - Msg ID: 59124)

Living on borrowed time

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BDA1E6518%2DB470%2D4895%2DB0A6%2DCD7807310DAD%7D&siteid=mktw
U.S. lenders keep loaning despite downturn

Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- U.S. consumers' creditworthiness has deteriorated with the economy, but that hasn't curbed the rate at which lenders are feeding the nation's dependency on debt. Despite increased unemployment and home foreclosures, record personal bankruptcies and massive stock market losses, America's financial institutions boosted consumer loans by 10 percent to $1.59 trillion in the last year. The rise is driving the average household to spend 14.3 percent of take-home pay on debts -- and raising the specter of a looming credit crisis if the economy continues to worsen.

Lenders prepare for consumer defaults. Lenders are "foisting credit upon people who not only don't necessarily deserve it, but who are not technically credit-worthy borrowers perhaps at any interest rate," said Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH Associates, a publisher of mortgage and consumer loan information.

Black Blade: Ya know, a bank (Superior Bank of Chicago) recently went tits up because of unworthy loans. Am I the only one who thinks there might be a problem here? Hmmm�

A friend of mine took out a second mortgage, paid down some debt, and went on a spending spree. His wife recently got laid off from a high profile high tech firm. Anyone wonder why I advocate getting out of debt and staying out of debt? Wonder why I advocate very selective investment in few sectors? Wonder why I advocate hard assets like gold and silver for portfolio insurance? In the last scene of the movie "The Terminator" a young Mexican boy points toward the horizon and says "Hay viene un tormenta" (There's a storm approaching). Indeed!

Black Blade

(08/07/2001; 00:51:26 MDT - Msg ID: 59125)

Power Glut?

Over the weekend Barron's magazine suggested that power plants now under construction or planned will be more than enough to meet power needs over the next five years.

That is impossible. Let us examine some very basic facts here. These power plants are NG-fired. 1) There are no more drill rigs to explore and produce natural gas. The number of rigs has nearly triples since 1998 and there has been only about a 2% gain in natural gas production - this without the new and planned NG-fired power plants in action; and 2) the costs to produce natural gas, growing demand, and restrictions on acquiring natural gas from most likely exploration absolutely targets guarantees that there will be a continuous energy crisis. It seems that in 1998 "The Economist" made the same prediction about oil that it would be $5.00/bbl forever. The POO went up to $40.00/bbl in short order and the editors of "The Economist" had a lot of egg on their collective faces. They never recovered. The editors of Barron's will have the same fate because they too simply did not do their homework.

BTW, Hurricane Barry cuts domestic hydrocarbon supply, rolling blackouts in Minnesota as Xcel asks customers to conserve energy during heat wave - ditto in the northeast, ditto in California, PG&E asks state to allow rate increases due to higher energy costs, etc. ad infinitum.

- Black Blade

Golden dreams All!

Netking

(08/07/2001; 02:37:52 MDT - Msg ID: 59126)

Harmony closes 400,000 ounces of hedge book . . .

http://library.northernlight.com/FC20010806530000074.html?cb=0&dx=1006≻=0#doc. . . in preparation for a rise in the POG.

Harmony has reported that it has closed 400,000 ounces of gold of its hedge book since the end of March.

The hedge book was reduced by 170,000 ounces in the quarter ending in June yet the weak gold price in recent weeks prompted a further reduction of 230,000 ounces.

The reduction comes as Harmony's bid to be one of the least hedged gold producers in South Africa and also to provide the company with the chance to take immediate advantage of any rise in bullion prices.

diehard

(08/07/2001; 02:40:31 MDT - Msg ID: 59127)

Dr Kurt Richeb�cher - Copy , Extract

BEST OF DR. KURT RICHEBACHER

July 2001

We're convinced that Dr. Kurt Richebacher is the most important economic thinker in the world today. His newsletter is expensive but crucially important. Here are a few pages from his July 2001 newsletter:

There is always quite a lag between changes in interest rates and noticeable changes in the economy's behavior. But considering the extraordinary scale and the speed of the rate cuts, some first effects ought to show by now. Not only have they failed to prevent the further economic weakness, most peculiar and most ominous is the miserable failure to lift at least the financial markets.

Booming stock and bond markets have preceded every economic recovery. The normal sequence in the business cycle is: booming money - booming financial markets - economic recovery. The only aggregate presently booming is the broad money supply (M3). What is the source of all this money? What are the economic or financial processes involved? We shall explain why this rampant money creation has so little or virtually no effect on the economy and the markets.

Looking for the most reliable economic indicator, we recommend profits. They are far more than just an economic indicator. By directly stimulating or retarding investment spending; they are really the primary, moving force behind the business cycle. Rising profit expectations is the absolutely indispensable condition for economic recovery. The signs of an investment collapse are everywhere, in particular in the steepest and most rapid slump of profits in the whole postwar period. Although muted by several factors, domestic nonfinancial profits fell in the first quarter 5.1% from the fourth quarter of 2000 and 14.5% from a year earlier. This compares with nominal GDP growth of 5% year-over-year. S&P after-tax earnings per share fell 31.3% from a year earlier and operating earnings 2.1%. Manufacturing profits are at a six-years low. Profit margins are at their lowest level in seven years. Only false optimism about the economy's impending recovery has prevented a worse rout in equity markets.

Waiting for the U.S. recession, essentially showing in a decline in real GDP, seems to resemble the wait for Becket's Godot. Well, Godot never arrived. In contrast, the U.S. recession will definitely do so. While economists and investors have cheered the Fed's rapid, sharp rate cuts and the fact that GDP has not yet dipped into negative territory, the unfolding downturn is, nevertheless, manifesting most ominous features that distinguish it negatively from all prior postwar cycles.

The false optimism is clearly shaped by the regular postwar experience with recessions and grossly inflated faith in Mr. Greenspan. Never before have rate cuts by the Fed failed to accomplish prolonged stock market rallies and economic recovery. Unfortunately, there are compelling reasons to assume that this time is the first, great exception from this rule. "Men like dogs", borrowing from Keynes, "are only too easily conditioned and always expect that, when the bell rings, they will have the same experience as last time." The decisive distinction, readily ignored, is that the economic conditions propelling the U.S. economy's present downturn have nothing in common with the cyclical fluctuations of the past, reflecting just short-run inventory corrections.

As we have repeatedly stressed, the difference is twofold. The one is the downturn's unusual speed, and the other one is its unusual shape. As to the speed, violent boom turned to violent bust within little more than six months. Over less than a year, from the first half of 2000 to the first quarter of 2001, real GDP growth has tumbled 4 percentage points, from 5.2% to 1.3%, both at annual rates. As to their composition, past downturns were centred in a rundown of excess inventories. This one reflects collapsing fixed investment, a drastic slowdown in consumer spending and, worst of all, unprecedented carnage of corporate profits. Inventory correction has just begun.

It keeps us wondering and wondering how the Wall Street gurus manage to preserve their complacency about the U.S. economy's state in the face of the shockingly bad economic and profit data. They have, of course, tremendous experience in duping people, their customers and themselves. American statistics about economic activity are the most comprehensive and the most up-to-date in the world, yet it strikes us how little of all that information is actually finding its way into recognition and public discussion.

THE DANGER SPOTS

Trying to judge the economy's further development, scrupulous scrutiny of underlying conditions is clearly incumbent. Yet we see very little of it. As we have many times stressed, understanding the specific pattern of the downturn is crucial for judging both its course and its implications. Regardless of manifest, contrary evidence, the consensus sticks to the deceptive version of an inventory correction. Announcing its last rate cut, the Federal Reserve declared in its associated statement that the inventory correction was "well advanced". Actually, inventory correction has in the first quarter of this year just started with a paltry decline by $ 7.1 billion, after a $ 60.5 billion increase last year. The inventory sales-ratio for businesses as a whole was in March at 1.37, after 1.32 a year ago. .

Profits are the most important issue requiring utmost attention. Remember: The aim of production in the capitalist economy is the pursuit of profit by businessmen. "Take this away and the whole process stops". (Keynes) Within just two quarters, profit margins fell in Q1 to their lowest level since early 1994. Here too, it is amazing how little attention the profit drama finds.

The profit carnage has come as a shock to corporate managers. But the other most important thing to see is that the trumpeted "profit miracle" of the late 1990s never happened. The story was complete bogus. After-tax, nonfinancial profit growth from $ 403.8 billion in 1995 to $ 527.3 billion in the fourth quarter of 2000 works out as an average annual increase of 5%, in current dollars. If you deduct the inflation rate, real corporate earnings grew by no more than 2-3% per annum. For a booming "new paradigm" economy, this was worse than miserable. With the weakening economy, badly disappointing profits have suddenly turned into collapsing profits. By the way, we presume that these aggregate numbers take no account of the big losses that have accumulated in the high-tech sector over the years.

The immediate effect has been the worst investment bust in the postwar period. Growth of fixed investment has in the course of 2000 plunged straight from 16.4 % in the first quarter to

�0.9% in the fourth quarter. Within the aggregate, investment in equipment and software dived over the year from 20.6% to �3.3%. But since the brunt of the profit squeeze has been on undistributed profits, corporate cash flow is in addition down. The ratio of cash flow to nonresidential fixed investment, at 72.2%, is at its lowest level since the third quarter of 1982. During 1991-99, this ratio has averaged 84%, fluctuating between 74% and 94%.

Considering the foreseeable influences on profits, it is beyond any question that their fall is sure to steepen in the course of the year, intensifying the investment bust with major negative consequences for consumer income and spending. Orders and shipments in particular for ITC goods keep sliding. In April, such orders fell by 10.3% in nominal value and shipments by 6.9%.

THE KEY TO CAPITAL FORMATION: SAVING

Gross neglect of most important, negative facts is the one thing that surprises us about the public discussion of the present U.S. economic downturn; utter lack of understanding and appreciation for the inherent macro financial and economic issues throughout the financial community is the other one. Elementary insights into economic processes that have been accepted by all schools of thought ever since systematic, thinking in economics started more than 200 years ago are unknown, discarded or even put on their head.

Compared to Europe, American economics has traditionally been short of theory and long in statistics. Yet today it's virtual anarchy at the macro front. Protracted runaway credit and money expansion, negative personal saving, a massive shift in resource allocation towards consumption, and a balance-of-payments deficit of monstrous size, all these egregious financial and economic maladjustments have for American policymakers and economists zero relevance. Rather, the New Theory of the New Economy elevates them to hallmarks of economic dynamism.

For ages, economists of all schools of thought have regarded the equilibrium between saving, credit supply and capital investment as the central problem in economics. No knowledgeable economist would have equated rising stock prices with "wealth creation". The crucial difference between national capital wealth and personal wealth used to be well known to everybody. As formulated by Ricardo, "capital is that part of the wealth of a country which is employed in production". And these economists also had a clear perception that there is but one single way how such (productive) capital can be created: through domestic saving. Adam Smith postulated: "that parsimony, and not industry, is the immediate cause of the increase of capital. In his book "Keynesianism vs. Monetarism", Prof. Kindleberger quotes a remark of Adolphe Thiers, French Finance Minister, 1865-7, in a speech to the Conseil Sup�rieur: "It is impossible to create more capital than society creates through savings." Quoting a more recent American economist, Prof. J. Laurence Laughlin, Credit of the Nations, 1918: "Credit does not create capital. Capital functions as economic goods are given over mainly to productive uses, and originates through saving." In the same vein, by the way, it used to be commonplace knowledge that credit growth in excess of available savings is the source and the measure of excessive consumption, investment and speculation.

What is it that caused the old economists to rank "saving" so high in their economic model? In short, owing to its impact on the economy's resource allocation. To the extent to which people consume less than their current net income, they provide the factors of production that are required for the production of plant and equipment. This release of resources for capital formation is saving's vital macroeconomic function that accrues exclusively from saving out of current income. This has always been the all-important macro aspect of saving, and that's what Adam Smith meant with his statement that parsimony, and not industry, is the immediate cause of capital. Ultimately, the rate of saving sets the limits to non-inflationary capital investment. And that's also the compelling reason why official statistics worldwide treat only saving from current income as "saving".

This insight into the macroeconomic essence and function of saving used to belong to elementary knowledge in economics. The first to have completely lost sight of it are today's American New Economy apostles. Equating realized capital gains in the stock market with saving reveals total macroeconomic illiteracy. Plainly, they have the exact opposite effect on the use of resources: To the extent that wealth effects boost consumer spending, they decrease capital.

The crucial, precarious aspect of the negative saving rate is that it reflects an unprecedented, bubble-related escalation of consumer spending. If the Fed's drastic easing fails to revive the bubble, the massive overspending by the consumer will burst just like the massive malinvestment of businesses in high tech.

These are the first three pages of Dr. Richebacher's 12-page July newsletter. To read the rest you need to subscribe as follows:

Write to: THE RICHEBACHER LETTER

808 St. Paul Street

Baltimore, MD 21202

Or call 1-800-433-1528

Belgian

(08/07/2001; 02:55:23 MDT - Msg ID: 59128)

@ Netking # 59123

Good morning to you Sir,
Thanks for adding some info on the silver-short-enigma :
Let us be honest and conclude that up until now there is no satisfactory / precise and complete, explanation, for this long term silver aberation (spelling ?). Glad to see that your sources started to look into other raw materials's history, in search for similar situations. And if we find a commodity (cacoa) where the same LT price is suppressed...it is always to be explained with the "over-supply" of it. Oversupplies, organised by monopolists (globalization) and produced under enslaving conditions, that are carefully hidden. But in those price charts we do see much more regular fluctuations and signs of supply/demand cycles. Cyclic behaviour instead of linear as to be seen in silver.
If there wasn't the Gold-management, the explantion for the long depressed POS, would be simplier to accept. Officials unloading obsolete stocks (US) and silver as a mining by-product. Reason for the long term non-cyclic pattern.
There are no official stashes of strategic coffee/cacoa reserves.

My amateuristic intuition tells me that we are overlooking something here. Did you ever hear from silver-miners (producers) talk about the miserable price situation of their product ? Do you hear defensive argumentation from silver-holders (the heroes � la Buffet/Gates) other than silver advocates ?
And why isn't the silver aberation not brought into connection with Gold, if there is to be a connection.
Most of the fundamentals of many other commodities, do have outspoken explanations. The only one I don't have any handle on, is silver. Every approach on silver is vague and unsharp to me. Are silver-consumers the main culprits for price depression as to defend photography against the digital fashion ? What is the reason that silver-demanders are so much stronger than the silver suppliers ?

If tomorrow, silver-price should explode without the POG -lead, wouldn't that be evidence for all to see that there is something wrong with the free market on physical gold ?
And that this fundamental is the reason why "others" are helping the silver demanders (industrial) to keep a permanent lit on silver ? Gold and silver have a complete different supply/demand situation. How can they possibly act (be under-valued) as the same commodity ?

Netking

(08/07/2001; 04:07:40 MDT - Msg ID: 59129)

Belgian

Belgian > Let us be honest and conclude that up until now there is no satisfactory / precise and complete, explanation, for this long term silver aberation (spelling ?).

Netking - I believe you're almost there Sir. Yes things are "wrong" with the fundamental demand & supply free market dynamics in the Ag market.

With such a small worlwide inventory (with nothing more than 150 million ounces of silver bullion that can be confirmed)& a continuing yearly supply deficit for over a decade & prices on a 5,000 year inflation adjusted low . . . something is VERY wrong.

The answer is under your nose, short selling & leasing. As mentioned (in the earlier post) below, the short position with just Comex alone is at around 655 million ounces compared with silver bullion inventory at around 150 million ounces . . . we've got a problem Houston!

Total remaining inventory is declining constantly through this continuing deficit, but over four times(4 x)this remaining supply has already been sold by the people who basicly don't own it, therein is an explanation Sir.(Your spelling is not bad at all Belgian, all depends where we live right!). - Netking

nickel62

(08/07/2001; 04:14:26 MDT - Msg ID: 59130)

(No Subject)

Some random thoughts on silver..BelgianThe silver mines that are primarily silver producers rather than a mixture of metals have long since proven uneconomic in most of North America, with the notable exception of Mexico. $6 per ounce was a major point at which they failed to have a viable life, and that was twenty years or so ago. The bulk no comes out as by products as you mentioned and is simply a factor in determining the net cost of the gold or zinc or copper that is the main target of the mining. All of this is most likely fairly well worked ground in the silver debate,but the lack of response from the silver factions is at least partly due to the fact that the silver producers who were primarily focused on that commodity have been pushed to the wall many years ago. We unfortunately are watching the last of the main gold producers in the US (Newmont) be minimalized in the same fashion.

Spartacus

(08/07/2001; 05:40:37 MDT - Msg ID: 59131)

(No Subject)

THE NAME OF THE GAME ?

" The US has had the rest of the world in somewhat of a trap also. For a long, long time. Perhaps from when we told them that the world gold exchange standard bearer would no longer ship gold for dollars. From that point on we (USA) could inflate our money without consequences. "
--------
" In the past if the system began driving the dollar too high and forcing US trade deficits, the Fed would raise rates to throw us (USA) into an economic recession that broke the vicious deficit trade cycle. Knowing full well that it would be a short recession policy because "noone" would jump the dollar ship before the medicine could work. Looking around back then and we see there was no other reserve currency ship to jump to. We either lose jobs and profits from an "overvalued currency" or from an induced recession. The first can lead to a financial breakdown, the lasts corrects things after only a short while. Naturally, we embark on the quick fix of a fast recession."
---------
" There is no way the Fed can create a new recession now without everyone jumping ship for another currency reserve. There is no possible way the Euro Zone will suffer as big a downfall as the US in another policy induced recession. Just looking at their closed economy and debt structure tells that story by itself. Any US slowdown means a run for the Euro, yet weakness in the Euro means the US must inflate at a torrid rate. " (FOA (10/20/00; 14:00:07MD - usagold.com msg#43)

" The other point is that the rest of the world has a huge vested interest in the Dollar. That's what they hold behind all their own financial systems. Any other currency can crack without affecting the Dollar greatly. No other currency can fail to be affected if the Dollar cracks. " (The privateer gold pages, February 2, 2001)

" However, the EU, unless it obtains a defacto "deficits without tears" reserve currency status displacing the dollar, will suffer a monetary contraction as the ECB and member banks would lose dollar reserves (measured in Euro) as the dollar falls against the Euro. The monetary infusion required to counterbalance this on the CB books in a "mark to market" regime (which they already follow) would make necessary the setting of official gold prices in Euro very high (and even higher in dollars) in order to inflate the asset value of gold on their books to a level that makes the books balance (the alternative is to absorb Euro from the banking system � and collapse it through illiquidity � or for the ECB to declare bankruptcy directly)." (ORO (01/29/01; 06:22:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 46806)

So�..

USA : "inflate or die".
Euroland : "Free gold or die".

Is this the way it goes?

Black Blade

(08/07/2001; 05:56:23 MDT - Msg ID: 59132)

RAT TO LEAVE BURNING SHIP!

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2001/8/6/193139.shtml
Exclusive: Greenspan Reportedly to Retire

Snippit:

WASHINGTON - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will announce his retirement by the end of year, administration sources have told NewsMax.com. The longtime head of the world's most powerful bank has already indicated to administration officials that they should begin a search for a replacement.

Black Blade: Getting out while he can I suppose. This rat is leaving while the Titanic slips beneath the waves.

I'll believe it when I see it.

Black Blade

(08/07/2001; 06:02:00 MDT - Msg ID: 59133)

THE END IS NEAR; WE MEAN IT!

http://www.nypost.com/business/36869.htm
Snippit:

August 7, 2001 -- Doomsday watch

Today may go down in history as Black Tuesday. At least that's what Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein is predicting. In a note to clients last Friday entitled "Fraud!," Albert Edwards, DKW's global equity strategist in London, said U.S. productivity data due out today could trigger a stock-market crash. Investing in the U.S. productivity miracle, which has been credited with boosting the market bubble through the late '90s, "will in retrospect be seen as a sick joke. The markets will be forced to confront this harsh reality on August 7," wrote Edwards. "Make a date in your diary! The U.S. 'new paradigm' will then be officially revised away! The risks of an equity crash are high."

Black Blade: We could find out in about 30 minutes. Yawn!

Belgian

(08/07/2001; 06:55:27 MDT - Msg ID: 59134)

To the morning shift....

Netking + Nickel62 : Thanks for adding another silver piece to the jig saw.

Diehard on K.Richebacher : This man has the "correct" attitude on the (theoretical) big economic picture. He is representative for the kind of solid common sense, still to be found on the old continent. Yes indeed, "profits" and "savings"...that's what it is all about, now more than ever before. All present economic super optimists, will have to learn that these two basic fundamentals, can't be ridiculed for too long ! Glad you joined us here (Danke).

Spartacus : I do think that you "Named" the game correctly with inflate + free-gold or die ! You seem to be familiar with arenas. In what stage (phase) of the battle, do you think we are, at present ?

POO up 2% ! ( compare this with a 5%/year interest on money)
To emphasise that an increase of 2%/day is proportionally enormous. And the initial positive POG reaction was immediately countered.
This snapshot of oil//POG price-behaviour, tells me that we are not living in an economic environment that corresponds with the evidence of "natural" (logical) behaviour.
Oil and Gold against the IR perspective + currency sauce ($/�). Is it the paper-arena that is causing these permanent anomalies or do all these actors have different agendas and distorted relationships with each other.
Or do I simply see ghosts and am suffering from hyperconcentration(itis) ? Sure is that volatility and rotation remain on a high level. It was full mon yesterday and we are the 7th of august. Is there already a cure for my obstination . big:-)(-:

SteveH

(08/07/2001; 08:02:16 MDT - Msg ID: 59135)

Rate of decline in futures in Silver and Platinum Group Metals

would seem to indicate an increase in pressure on the PMM (precious metal markets). This same pressure does not appear to yet affect gold, perhaps because of the offsetting downward pressure on the dollar. This severe downward pressure may be marking the beginning of the end for the derivative-style metals markets and also prognosticate a depression-like influence on these markets. This could be as a result of having had a strong dollar too long and represent a fundamental imbalance occuring or about to occur.

Buena Fe

(08/07/2001; 08:10:20 MDT - Msg ID: 59136)

UNBELIEVABLE

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AO2.nJxRuVS5TLiBTSNIPPIT-

08/07 09:03
U.S. Second-Quarter Productivity Rises at 2.5% Rate (Update2)
By Siobhan Hughes
.........Productivity Growth Rate

Productivity rose 2.6 percent in 1998, down from 2.7 percent first reported, and increased by 2.3 percent in 1999, less than the 2.6 percent first reported. In 2000, productivity increased 3 percent, compared with 4.3 percent initially estimated, the Labor Department said.

``The gains we thought we had made because of the technology revolution are still there -- they're just less dramatic,'' said Lara Rhame, an economist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York............
_________________________________________________________
The $ Cartel comes out this morning with guns & pens a blazing! Smoke over Iraq (oil) and smoke over Wall Street!

The $ is king for another 24hrs.

SOOOOOOOOOO predictable.......thanks Wall Street for keeping P/Au so cheap that I can buy more while you keep serving up tequila to the lemming masses!

How can analysts be blamed for overstating company's prospects when the gov. is the biggest culprit? Just look at those revisions they're ALWAYS in the same direction. Duhhhh

The jig will soon be up. The rest of the world is beginning to laugh at the king.

Buena Fe

(08/07/2001; 08:24:08 MDT - Msg ID: 59137)

paper supply

The truth is the US Treasury has to dump (sell) 27bil of new bonds this week (ah...... the vaunted surplus is in the shop for revisions) so the patient (demand) must be given heart massage to keep it alive.

Buena Fe

(08/07/2001; 08:32:37 MDT - Msg ID: 59138)

Burp

I know a few late buyers of the tech mania who would like to revise last years peak in the NASDUCK bubble.

Econoclast

(08/07/2001; 09:28:48 MDT - Msg ID: 59139)

NetKing

Lately, I've been wondering, how much are my perceptions clouded by my beliefs?
To my perception and I'm sure most everybody here, the news you gave about Harmony would be a positive for the company.

Yet the market is selling Harmony on the news.

Interesting world we live in. Up is down. Black is white. Right is wrong.

I await the day when our beliefs allow us to bask in the sunshine of the truth.

All: Have a Golden Day!

Buena Fe

(08/07/2001; 09:36:04 MDT - Msg ID: 59140)

preaching to the choir

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3Z02GM2QC&live=true&tagid=IXLC078IH7C&Collid=AnyFurther job cuts to plague the US in near future
By Andrew Hill and Mary Chung in New York
Published: August 6 2001 19:14GMT | Last Updated: August 6 2001 19:25GMT

US companies will continue to slash jobs in the coming months, according to a survey that paints a much bleaker picture than official figures. (YOU DON'T SAY!)

The survey contrasted with Friday's employment report, which showed that the US jobless rate was unchanged in July at 4.5 per cent, better than forecast............

......... "Companies are looking at their staffing needs for the balance of 2001 and the numbers do not present a very positive picture," said John Challenger, the firm's chief executive, in a press release. "If companies were anticipating a 2001 turnaround...we would not be witnessing the extraordinary number of job cuts." ........

Gold Trail Update

(08/07/2001; 09:44:00 MDT - Msg ID: 59141)

The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated

The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.

CoBra(too)

(08/07/2001; 09:59:53 MDT - Msg ID: 59142)

-The Calm before the Storm ...

- The Dresdner, Kleinwort,(whatever happened to Bentson to be replaced by?) Wasserstein forecasted & expected SM meltdown was averted by a better than expected productivity #. What have you expected? - Well, I expected the usual BLS - Bogus Lies ... as inherent in Statistics. But even that may be beside point, as the numbers may well prove to be real, reached at other BLS #'s, which are derived by the bogus unemployment #'s, which are not even half the #'s as household statistics state.

- So the "spiel" or spin is going on - for a while, anyway. Fine, so today CSFB analysts feel most of the chip producers are still some 20 - 30% overvalued. A fact they didn't see before most of this sector has melted down 80-90% from their highs. You gotta luv them guys!

- Gold's back to the penny game, while silver was briefly bashed to new lows, it clearly shows they're losing the prowess to really paper over all their games by the printing press. The PGM's free fall may just indicate the intricate state of the economy's - free fall? - as the "Street" is between a "Wall" and a hard rock! - so to speak!

- And as the Euro becomes more of a fact - they again can't hold down the POO - phew, that's were the PTB meets its Waterloo!

- Alea iacta est - the dice have been cast ... as I rest my case to the peace of mind some gold and a little silver combined, hold for my family's destiny.

Hope you too - cb2

PS: The latest thunderstorm in my parts has effected a meltdown in my most valued computer parts - i.e. processor and motherboard - not a recipe for computer and chip makers, I hope!

Cavan Man

(08/07/2001; 10:30:32 MDT - Msg ID: 59143)

@CB (too)

As I was fond of saying on the rugby pitch, "with you!".

Gandalf the White

(08/07/2001; 11:00:26 MDT - Msg ID: 59144)

So HBM, that shreds all those guesses into little pieces !

But one MUST think that FOA was educated in a private school that did not use American English as the primary language ! OR, why the grammical errors of dangling participals, "noone" for "no one" and use of the hyphen for contractions like "it's" for "its" (rather than "it is").
BUT, we can understand the message even with these tricks !! Indeed marks of a very tricky GIANT !
<;-)

site steward

(08/07/2001; 11:38:13 MDT - Msg ID: 59145)

If it ain't yellow, it ain't lookin' very good...

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010807/n07362871.htmlSilver has fallen today to its lowest London fix in eight years, down nearly 10% on the year.

According to this Reuters article, China's silver sales for the past two years have weighed on the market. For perspective here and now, China had issued 280 tonnes of export quotas for silver last year (2000), but China has recently added 500 tonnes to its export quotas for this year, lifting the 2001 silver export quotas to 920 tonnes.

Platinum has fallen to an 18-month low, down 27% since this year began.

Meanwhile, palladium has been the ugliest, down over 50% since New Year's day.

This article cites traders saying that "Japanese trading houses may have shipped some of their platinum and palladium stocks...to the spot Zurich market because of slack demand in the domestic market."

It would seem that hitching one's horse to "industrial demand usage" is an unfortunate choice at a time when the blossom of rapid new growth has come off the global economy.

The gold price remains nearly even with levels seen at the start of this year, and gold remains uniquely poised to carry your wealth through the economic slowdown as the Fed stands ready to ease monetary policy even further in the days ahead.

Today, among others, is a good day to buy gold.

Randy

Belgian

(08/07/2001; 12:18:00 MDT - Msg ID: 59146)

Trail Guide(s) and "Honni soit qui mal y pense".

Apologize, please, but I can't translate the French expression. Hope some Canadian can do it for me.

Isn't it extra-ordinarry that we have, here at our disposal, a theory with extensive and intelligent argumentation, about a subject that, as far as I know, hasn't been elaborated elsewhere, yet :

* The US-dollar and its reserve status *

A profound reflexion on the fundamentals of the past 30 years + a projection for the close future. I am surprised that nobody out there seems to be shocked by the idea that the globally owned and used, currency, is about to loose the major part of its status !? Again, no one seems to take this probability seriously and doen't even bother to come up with only one argument that should evidence the impossibility for such a dramatic change to happen.

Yes, indeed, we could say exactly the same about Gold. Who cares about Gold. Most observers / analysts are only floating on the surface and never take a dive into the deep blue.

The described above, is interesting to me for the following conclusion : all these fundamental changes must be organized at a very high level. Academic or pragmatic, don't know. But surely it is worked out by a very tiny minority of thinkers. That's why I'm stealthly adding that little "s" on TG(s).

The questions "if" and "when" should be relativated. The correct outcome of the projected is uncertain, even for the astute planners themselves. But than again...if this theoretical train wasn't already moving on its rails...there would be much more noice about the whole idea. Impossible adventures attract a much larger and louder public with shouting comments. This isn't clearly happening with an incognito who says that tomorrow the dollar will only buy 1/10 of today and that Gold will go to 30.000$/ounce !
Wouldn't this be "the" title of tomorrow's frontpage ?
And it hasn't happen. Strange isn't it ?

Not that I'm fixated on that number 30.000$/ounce...but has anyone seen, any goldbug using this figure in any posting ?
Yep and even today, I still have to insist to my closiest Gold-friends, that they should study and absorb TG !
Am I giving the answer, here, myself on the question ?

Sirs A. and FOA, I do admire and appreciate what you are doing here. And I want to express this with strong feelings of deep symphaty. Thank you very much and wishing you and your family all the best!

Leigh

(08/07/2001; 12:28:07 MDT - Msg ID: 59147)

Gandalf

Gandalf, if you use that reasoning, just about all the posters on Kitco must have been educated at that same school.

Max Rabbitz

(08/07/2001; 12:34:33 MDT - Msg ID: 59148)

Panic in Argentina

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AO3AjfhU5QXJnZW50Buenos Aires, Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Argentines, who are withdrawing savings from banks at a rate of $220 million a day, are hoarding their money at home.

The biggest makers of home safes in Buenos Aires say sales have surged as bank withdrawals increase. Cajas de Seguridad Trella expects sales to double this month as customers buy everything from lock boxes to fireproof safes with digital combinations. Sales at rival Talleres Fenix have jumped 28 percent since April. Argentines unable to afford in-home safes, which sell for as much as $3,000, say they've buried cash in their backyard, hid it in ovens or stuffed it into laundry hampers.

Max: I understand the need for a certain amount of fiat but have they all had Lobotomies or am I missing something? The government can and will print 10 for every piece of paper they hoard. You don't need a fireproof safe for gold. And those stories of Japanese hoarding paper yen as their government talks about inflating. Perhaps those stories about Black Helicopters spraying funny chemicals are TRUE!!!

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/07/2001; 12:47:25 MDT - Msg ID: 59149)

site steward @ # 59145

Sir Randy,

I am inclined to agree with you as to the negative affect upon the price of platinum and palladium being, at least in part, a result of the current world economic slow down. Also I agreed with your statement, "gold remains uniquely poised to carry your wealth through the economic slowdown".

However, I must take exception to your putting silver in the same category with platinum and palladium. True, silver has tremendous usage as an industrial commodity, else we would not have the incredible shortage that now exists, but there is a difference.

Silver is like gold in that it is considered to be money in the purest sense. I know that there is much disagreement as to the difference between money and currency and I am not trying to dig that issue up with this post; however I strongly feel that that issue was not brought to a valid conclusion.

Gold is not shining yet! Silver is not shining yet! Let us stick to the proven historical fact that both will always be money as opposed to any other commodity in existence. Gold is for the wealthy and silver is for Poor Old Solomon, and either or both are for most anyone at the current fire sale prices.

Yes, "gold remains uniquely poised to carry your wealth through", but this does not give cause to bash silver, which is uniquely poised to accomplish the job also.

Very respectfully,

HBM

BR549

(08/07/2001; 13:44:20 MDT - Msg ID: 59150)

Savings vs. Hoarding

Savings and hoarding--aren't they really the same? Savings is generally thought of by classical economic theory as being healthy for the economy and hoarding is not. Healthy economies thrive on rapid non-inflationary economic flows. When economies contract, then available goods and services increase, supply outpaces demand, people become afraid of the future, then hoard rather than spend, and the economy slows down and sometimes even stops. If citizens hoard gold, then gold becomes wealth. If citizens hoard currencies, then deflation occurs, then recession, then depression.

The manipulations of the financial markets, shorting, derivatives, are indeed speculation. These manipulations are done at the expense of the citizens for the benefit of the banks. The government cannot get rid of its gold altogether but can lease it or confiscate it as needed to protect themselves from revolution for their past mistakes. Anybody who has seen the government up close and watched the lobbyists sell out U$ interests, who have seen the bureaucrats who couldn't get a job in the commercial marketplace sweeping the floor, etc. assure me that we cannot trust the government. The only way that any significant change will be made is out of the ashes of a full economic collapse.

The difference between savings and hoarding is just a matter of degree. In uncertain economic times save currencies to cover short term needs and hoard gold, food, water,......

Netking

(08/07/2001; 13:49:26 MDT - Msg ID: 59151)

HBM/Randy & Econolast

HBM(59149)& Randy - This China factor is unproven one chaps. I have seen so much creative accounting broadcast in annual reports & media releases by all & sundry that I am weary of believing whatever comes along when logic says otherwise.

As we have said here over the last year, where is it being exported to "IF" it is being exported.

Is it being sold at 5,000 inflation adjusted lows by the Chinese for a quick bargain on their part? A news link I posted the other morning indicated the PRC were expecting strong domestic demand for PM's. As a result Au imports were going to be up to the PRC & Ag exports (if there were any) were going to be stopped or down due to domestic demand creation with Olympics & other factors all playing a part.

Why would you dump only to have to buy back again in the near future at much higher prices? HBM, maybe the Mrs & your perfect daughter have been selling off your secret hideaway stash huh!
----------------------------------------------------------
Sir Econoclast(59139)Yes this was a brave move & potentially a smart & logical one for them yes, lets hope the POG rises for them soooooon, there are sharks circling in the waters . . .

PH in LA

(08/07/2001; 14:27:34 MDT - Msg ID: 59152)

Patriotism

Nice performance, FOA! Nice posturing and flag waving! You're OK, since you are a patriot, after all. (tongue firmly in cheek)

Hill Billy: (taking tongue from cheek, now)
There are very many kinds of patriotism. Most of them are tools used to conscript cannon fodder for whatever stupid war the fat cats at the top are promoting at the time. I mean, why else would anyone throw their life and their personal integrity away at a moment when everything in life lies before them? And I say personal integrity because the very first lesson the conscript must learn is to obey whatever they are told, no matter what they might think. The end of that trail is the sorry spectacle that was staged at Nuremburg for the benefit of all the surviving "patriots".

Yet before any of us can be molded into the role of "patriot" he must first be a full member of the human race. (I mean, do you know any "patriotic" animals? I thought not.)

Now the human race contains many, many different kinds of people. Some have no problem discarding whatever reason they might have inherited as homo sapiens in the name of "patriotism". For others, it is not so easy. Nothing is accomplished by slinging mud at the latter just because they don't fall into the former catagory.

My reading of FOA's whole story is that he values his membership in the human race above all other memberships. His message is a pragmatic one. If the dollar needs adjustment, we should all be aware of it beforehand. As intelligent human beings, we owe it to ourselves.

FOA and ANOTHER take a very broad view. A view of the forest, instead of the trees. I mean, how often do you admit to yourself that the prosperity we Americans have taken for granted for generations is due to the outcome of the 20th century's many wars? Rather than to our natural work ethic and personal industriousness? Is it then unpatriotic to wonder if the rest of the world still owes "America the Conqueror" such a tithe of their production just for winning the war? Does this war debt ever end? Or is it your "patriotic right" to these benefits for all the rest of time? This is what thinkers like FOA and ANOTHER are talking about when they postulate the demise of the dollar and efforts by Europeans to get out from under the yoke of the dollar system. They are not the enemy you would like to make them by casting aspersions on their "patriotism". Do you remember Pogo? "We have met the enemy, and the enemy is us."

While we're on the subject, do you remember some of the policy goals of Jimmy Carter? Recognizing that the US had a problem with immigration from Central America threatening to overwhelm us, he wanted to make Central America a more prosperous place so that its people would have more incentive to stay there, rather than coming here. He wanted to normalize relations with Cuba, etc. Lots of stuff like that. But what was Reagan's solution to the same problems? Why! a war! That's right! Remember the "freedom fighters"? The Bolen Ammendment? Do you remember how congress had passed laws explicitly forbidding aid to "freedom fighters" in El Salvador? And how Reagan violated those laws in his zeal to promote war in Nicaragua? A completely stupid war that later had to be cancelled. Who won that one? I submit that nobody won it. Everybody just quit.

I'm pretty sure you think Ronald Reagan and Olliver North were "patriotic Americans". Yet, the kinds of solutions Americans like Jimmy Carter wanted to pursue would have improved life for Central Americans and us gringo North Americans alike. This would have been a solution for improving conditions for the human race, as opposed to a solution for the benefit of "patriotic America" first.

Sometimes patriotism is not good. Sometimes, we owe allegience to a higher power! Let's pardon FOA the effort of proclaiming his "patriotism"! His writings have been so selfless for so long. He shouldn't have to jump through your patriotic hoops, too!

Chris Powell

(08/07/2001; 14:39:51 MDT - Msg ID: 59153)

Honi soit qui mal y pense

Hi, Belgian....

Bartlett's Familiar Quotations says it means: "Evil to him who evil thinks." I've heard it translated as well as "Evil is he who thinks evil." Bartlett's attributes it to King Edward III of England and says it is the motto of the Order of the Garter.

escapethematrix

(08/07/2001; 15:14:55 MDT - Msg ID: 59154)

Don't worry America.......Everything's just fine ....

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topsum&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AO3BXoBPjQ2lzY28nSnippet:

San Jose, California, Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Cisco Systems Inc., the world's largest maker of computer-networking equipment, said fiscal fourth-quarter earnings plunged 99 percent as the company ended the fiscal year with a $1.01 billion loss.

But I'm sure that "things are just about to turn around...."

To PH in LA: Nice post, I agree completely.

slingshot

(08/07/2001; 15:21:58 MDT - Msg ID: 59155)

BR549 Msg#59150

Savings is what you accumulate for the security of your family and love ones.
Hoarding is the term/excuse the government uses to confiscate your savings and distribute it to the socialist state. Might I add that it will be the same people you tried to help by introducing them to gold, only to be looked upon in a negative light.
Full economic collapse= Full Hunker down.

By the way, How is Junior? HEEEEEE HAAAWWWWWW
Slingshot

Cavan Man

(08/07/2001; 15:39:15 MDT - Msg ID: 59156)

PH in LA

Nice post and; I completely agree with you (FWIW).

BR549

(08/07/2001; 15:47:12 MDT - Msg ID: 59157)

Hoarding

@ slingshot--

Thanks for the warm welcome on my first post here.

According to Mr. Webster---

Hoard, n.: A hidden fund or supply stored for future use; a cache. Verb: To gather or accumulate a hoard.

Different from ordinary savings in that it is "hidden".

Hoard, v.: To collect and lay up; to amass and deposit in secret; to store secretly, or for the sake of keeping and accumulating; as, to hoard grain.

Different from savings in that is is not "just for the sake of" keeping and accumulating.

Do you see the word government in there anywhere?

By the way Junior Samples is at that great cornpatch in the sky, but Lulu is still available for you.

site steward

(08/07/2001; 15:56:42 MDT - Msg ID: 59158)

Especially for Hill Billy Mitchell for msg#59149

I, too, feel that "that issue was not brought to a valid conclusion." Or more accurately, I should say that my own postion on the matter was never fully stated because a small unruly faction of the assembly forced a premature suspension of my open presentation at the midpoint of the series. So whether I'm the one tapping away at the keyboard or a fellow in my stead, you won't see the ol' "site steward" broach that subject again here at the Forum. However, I would certainly encourage all others out there with civil demeaner to respectfully debate all sides of the gold/currency/money/wealth discussion. We certainly wouldn't want to sit back and let FOA have ALL of the fun as he traverses this material "over there" upon the Gold Trail.

With regard to my post that you cited, I apologize if my text appeared to "give cause to bash silver". I may have overstepped my posting guidelines when I used the various elements of the news article to provide my pro-gold conclusion.

I can see now that it would have been more business-minded for me to have said instead, "Buy silver, everybody! It is as cheap as its been in eight years!"

But no. Then I wouldn't be able to sleep with a clean conscience. To state no concluding remarks would have been a marginally better option for me to employ. Thanks for the feedback.

Bottom line: I encourage everyone to explore the callings of their personal Free Will. And with or without rhyme or reason, let us hope that it calls for yellow metal!

Randy

slingshot

(08/07/2001; 16:10:43 MDT - Msg ID: 59159)

BR549 Msg#59157

Sorry to hear about Junior. Long time since I have seen LuLu.
Yep, Did not see the word government anywhere.
That's the way I like it in either definition.
Gold is Freedom that comes in small packages.
GOT SOME?
Slingshot

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/07/2001; 16:26:06 MDT - Msg ID: 59160)

PH in LA @ # 59152

Sir PH,

You are correct. I was "cannon fodder", at the age of 19. I knew nothing of the difference between a nation and its sovereign peoples, between a republic and a government. I take no pride in the Southeast Asian war. I did what I thought was right at the time. I do not have the luxury of doing it over. I am glad I do not have that option, for I do not know what I would do. I do know what I would not do. I would not go to Canada to hide. (not intended to be a stab at Canada)

I am now 54 years old. I love my republic and pledge my allegiance to it. I have no use for the government. Yes, there is more than one kind of patriotism. I hope that I am a patriot who would never compromise a principle to save my hide as the many of the German "patriots" appear to have done under Hitler. I was not in their shoes (I do not judge them)and can only hope to have learned from their mistakes, should I ever have to wear those shoes.

You are far to the left of me, or should I say, I am far to the right of you. There are at least three types of socialism: - National Socialism, International Socialism, and Fabian Socialism to name a few. I have no use for any form of socialism. I do hope that you would not consider me one of those types of "patriots".

History tells us that those who had gold and used it before it was too late, were able to find refuge.

Randy, this is for you. Gold did accomplish for some of the Jewish peoples in Nazi Germany what silver could not have accomplished. I still think that silver belongs in the mix for metals accumulation in the United States.

Very respectfully,

HBM

BR549

(08/07/2001; 16:26:41 MDT - Msg ID: 59161)

Hoarding

@ slingshot (msg#:59159)--

Got some? Heck, yeah, I'm hoarding all the gold I can get. I am also hoarding food, water, ammunition, ... I don't owe the banksters anything on my house or property, I got some silver.....

What's wrong with hoarding??

Regards from Cornfield County

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/07/2001; 16:35:17 MDT - Msg ID: 59162)

slingshot and BR549

I agree with both of you.

Respectfully,

HBM

slingshot

(08/07/2001; 16:42:46 MDT - Msg ID: 59163)

Hill Billy Mitchell

Welcome Home. Job Well Done. Thank You.
Slingshot

R Powell

(08/07/2001; 16:54:04 MDT - Msg ID: 59164)

site steward

Just one man's opinion and it's airing does not necessitate any reply.
When you say, "...you won't see the ol' "site steward" broach that subject again here at the Forum.", I wonder why you have decided to muzzle your thoughts. If I am interpreting your implied message correctly, it seems that you have withdrawn from discussion. IMO, whatever the current subject, your absence from participation will be a loss. This also calls to mind one of my mom's old sayings, Stifling a sneeze is not safe or healthy.
As concerns your obligations as the site steward and your own personal opinions/thoughts, don't we all wear many hats during the course of each and every day? I function daily as a parent, husband and owner/operator of a one man masonry business before I become Rich on the USAGold forum.
Perhaps site steward can post what's approprate for him while Randy speaks with a separate/different handle??
Again, just a suggestion, FWIW
Rich

Belgian

(08/07/2001; 17:00:34 MDT - Msg ID: 59165)

Dollar-Silence in Europ

Sir Powell, thanks for the translation.

Less than 150 days away from the euro-paper reality, I haven't encountered any kind of public $/� insinuations.
The euro transition evolves with a strange and very cool (sober) educative propaganda. No macho talk about a "strong" euro, but rather stressing on a "stable" euro.
An atmosphere of caution reigns. The financial press is not at all comparing the coming euro to the dollar. No TG-talk over here. As if the EMU is walking on eggs.
Not one question about official dollar-reserves or on all this US$ denominated bonds, holded by so many euro-individuals ! And I can assure you that each and every household has a dollar bond under the matrasse. Don't know the total volume and impossible to overvieuw the impact when all thiese dollars will be exchanged for euros.
High probability that from 1/1/2002, most of these private dollars will bid for the euro. This is definitely not happening today. Any possible sign of financial nervousness or panic is avoided with that cool campaign.

Is this an element of EMU's management skills ? Is this a reason why POG must signal dollarstrength up until 1/1/2002 ? Is this the reason why I have to discover TG's guidance on a US forum ?

Why has Germany so suddenly and apparently for no special reason, sold, 12 tonnes/1 hour of Goldcoins to its citizens ?

European bondholders are all informed extensively that their bonds in lira/mark etc, are automatically changed into euros. But not a word on dollar + related currencies.

Today, the POG/POO tandem went into reverse of what happened in euroland. There must be an emergency plan to avoid a flight out of the euro from 1/1/2002 onwards.
Is this a reason why the euro runs to that date as kind of underdog and make a surprising sprint starting at 1/1/2002 ?
Is the 8 year POG-cycle (bottom to bottom)(2001/1993/1985...check it) a coincidence ? August, the weakest POG month of each year and POG holding relatively well (for the time being) !

What would be the effect on US dollarholders (capital flows),if from 1/1/2002 onwards, the euro should eventually show explicit strength against the dollar ?
The reason why so many individual europeans hold dollarbonds, was their doubt on the strength of their own currency and automatic admiration (trust) of the reserve currency. The more I think about it, the more I have that funny feeling that the next 365 days might hold some surprises. My previous euro-criticism does slowly gives room to some belief in subtle EMU-management.
After all, uniting 12 totally different countries/cultures, is already a titanic achievement. This was already prepared a long time ago. And that's where TG has been building on.

All US gold-writers do agree on the intrinsic dollar weakness...but never relate this to the euro ? Euro silence in the US.

slingshot

(08/07/2001; 17:03:10 MDT - Msg ID: 59166)

Br549 Msg59161

Nothing wrong with hoarding. Looks like we think the same. Funny thing about Goldbugs. They seem to collect the same things.
We are securing our freedom one Gold piece at a time. May the Powers That Be, allow us more time to accumulate longer and at a low cost, by thinking we are incapable of seeing their plan.
Slingshot

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/07/2001; 17:10:42 MDT - Msg ID: 59167)

R Powell @ # 59164 and Randy

My sentiments exactly. Bravo, and what a great suggestion by Rich. I particularly liked the TownCrier handle. And I really do think that a hole was missing in the money vs. currency arguments. I just have not been able to put my thoughts in a suitable form. Randy, you kinder and gentler thang, you. Please post and stimulate our thinking.

This is an area where TG has been exploring on the trail, but he is so cryptic that I cannot understand him sometimes. He communicates well but I have to work entirely to hard to discover what is saying at times. No offence meant towards him, so no need to defend him for his cryptic delivery or to attack me for my laziness and or thick headedness.

Very respectfully,

HBM

Econoclast

(08/07/2001; 17:12:37 MDT - Msg ID: 59168)

Saving vs. Hoarding

Are you a gold advocate/investor... or a goldbugIt's all in perception.

"Saving" is a politically correct activity when it is denominated in your local fiat currency. All the extra that you've produced over what you have consumed is reduced to a number "on account" that is totally at the whim and mercy of the controlling monetary authorities.

"Hoarding" is a politically incorrect activity. The sound of the word itself (which was re-popularized during Y2K) is given to negative connotations. It is a politically incorrect activity because usually, you hoard what your local fiat currency can buy. This is a severely frowned upon activity because, first, it encourages independence from the welfare state, and secondly, it does the double duty of foiling the controlled burn in the value of your currency (inflation).

During Y2K, laws were passed in some states prohibiting "hoarding". How it can be against the law, or even frowned upon, to purchase lawfully sold goods and commodities with lawfully earned "money" is beyond me.

But then again, we live in an Orwellian world.

site steward

(08/07/2001; 17:39:34 MDT - Msg ID: 59169)

Rich, my good man, thanks for the thoughts

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/2920017/default.htmlI'm really overstepping proper usage limits of this "site steward" code to respond, but wanted to simply direct you to an explanatory post (offered July 29th) which you may have missed. You will find it easily enough (Randy@TheTower located at the top of the page) if you click the URL given above. Please have a look. And thanks, again, for your comments.

R

Orville Goldenbacher

(08/07/2001; 17:40:22 MDT - Msg ID: 59170)

Torn on patriotism?

I love my country, but distrust my government.

All the more reason to own gold!

OG

BR549

(08/07/2001; 17:41:10 MDT - Msg ID: 59171)

Hoarding

@ Econoclast(59168) , slingshot(59166), & HBM(59162) ---

Exactly�

The negative connotation of "hoarding" is from the elite "equities" types that value being "politically correct" over "what is right". I wish I had said that.

My point about "hoarding" is that it should NOT be a "negative" term. It should be what "little red hens" do when they know what is coming down the pike. Being prepared for a hurricane that does not materialize is not "dumb", it is smart. Y2K had to do with computer failures that the public will never know about but individual preparedness has to do with self preservation (hoarding).

Thanks for the warm welcome. I feel more comfortable now and will lurk a while longer..

Regards from Cornfield County

slingshot

(08/07/2001; 18:02:44 MDT - Msg ID: 59172)

Econoclast Msg# 59168

I am a gold advocate/investor/goldbug.
Ah! Yes, Perception. Does it apply to everything.

Goldbug#1 I'm saving these here twenty cans of TUNAFISH for an emergency.

Goldbug#2 I'm saving these here Three hundred cans of TUNAFISH for an emergency.

Goldbug #1 Eats a can a month.

Goldbug #2 Eats a can everyday.

Who is saving for an emergency and who is hoarding?

If the government determines by perception, hope you get an agent who likes Tunafish to side with your love of tuna.

What does this have to do with gold? If they can confiscate Tunafish, They will not think twice about gold.

BOHICA!
Slingshot

site steward

(08/07/2001; 18:24:12 MDT - Msg ID: 59173)

Because life has cycles and the future is unknowable, "hoarding" = civil duty

If we are fortunate, we fill our bellies with breakfast so that we may have a store of energy to meet our life's obligations until dinnertime.

If we are fortunate, at Autumn's harvest we gather the fruits and grains of our Summer's labor so that we shall not perish from wanting sustenance throughout the long, bleak Winter.

If we are practical and wise, and if fortune smiles upon us with a Good Year, in imitation of the seasonal cycle we set aside our abundant wealth so that we may be provisioned against the Lean Years that lurk unpredicably in our futures.

We do this so that we need not go begging -- a burden and taxation upon our good friends and neighbors who, if they are honorable, have themselves toiled and harvested in Good Times with an eye toward a more comfortable, stable future in an up-and-down world of cycles and uncertainties.

Perhaps this pushes the limits of "news" and "facts" versus my "philosophies". I must endeavor to tread this ground lightly!

Randy

Leigh

(08/07/2001; 18:31:43 MDT - Msg ID: 59174)

PH in LA

PH, the term "American patriot" usually means a person who believes in individual liberty, freedom of speech, freedom of the press, the right to defend oneself, and the obligation to cast off tyranny. It doesn't mean bowing down to the often ridiculous demands of government rulers.

The term "American" is used because those were the ideals of the American Founding Fathers. Those men (and women) were seekers of freedom, and their collective efforts made them "patriots" of a free country. Sadly, what remains of that now is only a shabby jingoism, and true patriots no longer feel themselves bound to a nation but to an ideal.

slingshot

(08/07/2001; 18:38:42 MDT - Msg ID: 59175)

Site Steward Msg# 59173

If I may borrow the words from Charlie Brown in PEANUTS.

THATS IT!
Slingshot

Netking

(08/07/2001; 18:46:22 MDT - Msg ID: 59176)

Site Steward/Randy

Re: Hill Billy Mitchell(59167)R Powell(59164)

Randy, motioned seconded, keep your viewpoint here Sir . . . even if it's with a different hat to clarify the channel? -Netking

site steward

(08/07/2001; 18:49:18 MDT - Msg ID: 59177)

To slingshot, re: "THAT'S IT!!"

I now say to you, as Lucy would say to C.B. from behind her little wooden stand:

"Five cents, please."

:-D

R

auspec

(08/07/2001; 18:52:42 MDT - Msg ID: 59178)

Netking

Thank you for your post # 59123 and for relaying these silver questions to Ted Butler. He IS most gracious and I have asked him silver questions in the past and received worthy commentary. From his reply to your questioning: The silver short position is greater than annual silver production AND 'known' above ground supply, pretty precarious. The gold shorts are, of course, also much greater than annual gold production {probably a higher ratio than silver if they are 10 to 15,000 tonnes compared to annual production of 2,500 tonnes}, but nowhere near the above ground known gold supply.
My past questions to Ted {the man} Butler were in regards to possible 'unknown' amounts of silver that may become available to the market, or Black Silver if you will. Both he and David Morgan are constantly qualifying their statements in regards to supply that is officially accounted for. They acknowledge there may be quantities of silver that are yet unaccounted for, but are forced to ignore it for the very same reason that it is unknown. Of course what else can they do? This silver 'wall' was supposed to have been hit years ago, yet the game continues. If we go more than the next 2 to 3 years w/o long overdue market 'adjustments' we can start looking for unofficial sources of silver. IMF {I know what the MF stands for but unsure about the I} have silver too?
$2 Silver? Hard to believe for sure. Maybe Martin Weiss' gold and silver guru {what's his name?} knows about vast quantities of silver that are off the records, certainly not impossible, but also not impossible this is nothing but more scare tactics in use by this outfit. They have been known to call a few collapses incorrectly or at least YEARS prematurely. So sue me if I'm wrong. These are the same yo-yo's that rocked the cradle in prediction of sub $200 POG a year or two ago. Ho-hum.
If we get to $2 Silver we just may have to restock a bit, no? Not much silver will be produced at $2 {or $4 for that matter}. Consumption might uh....uh....skyrocket?
Isn't it quite odd that all we gold followers are getting quite accustomed {conditioned} to sub $300 Gold? It's been nearly 2 years since the spike to $330+.
Will leave you with a few thoughts:
The Constitution-- A brilliant document in need of a country.
The Justice system-- No better than a plea bargain with Teddy Kennedy.
New World Order-- Inevitable but doomed to a spectacular failure.
The free Markets-- RULE!!!

Kind regards,
McAgman

auspec

(08/07/2001; 18:59:56 MDT - Msg ID: 59179)

Can't Keep {Get} A Good Man Down---Midas

"Yesterday, I received my third confirmation of extensive Middle East interest in securing long term physical gold supply. I have first hand knowledge that this is the case. What is also becoming more clear is that the bullion banks are hankering down their own long term supply. They know what is going on and they know that it could end at any time, especially with GATA forces gaining ground by the week."

"The increasing competition for supply commitments of a year or more are coming harder and harder to come by, which is why the Middle East buyers are going outside of normal supply channels. Instead of securing supply from the Swiss bullion banks, they are competing against them." END

Seems like someone around here keeps talking about an unencumbered gold grab. Regards to you, friend!

Tree in the Forest

(08/07/2001; 19:04:46 MDT - Msg ID: 59180)

Leigh, HBM

Leigh: How true!

HBM: Thank you for your service and your patriotism, sir. The wisdom of age has led you to a rational patriotism and it suits you well.

CoBra(too)

(08/07/2001; 19:09:49 MDT - Msg ID: 59181)

... Beating about the same - Topic ... myopic, indeed?

I seem to be reading too much of Bill Bonner's Daily Reckoning - though he's on holidays - still his friends keep a close watch on markets.
The doomsday, Tuesday was averted - as I've said and so has Bill B. - thanks to his information about the bureau of much Belabored Labor Statistics(TM *May 2000)- though today will be all eyes on Cisco "The Kid". ...
Beating the W.St. estimates for 14 qu's in a row - by a penny - analysts are estimating .o2 cents a share for the quCisco's 4th-Qtr Net Plunges 99% as Revenue Drops 25% the result is : quote "(update4)
By Scott Lanman
San Jose, California, Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Cisco Systems Inc., the largest maker of computer-networking equipment, said fiscal fourth-quarter earnings plunged 99 percent on lower demand and the company ended the fiscal year with a $1.01 billion loss.

Sales this quarter will be unchanged to down 5 percent from the previous period, Chief Executive John Chambers said on a conference call. Net income in the fourth quarter dropped to $7 million, or break-even per share, from $796 million, or 11 cents, a year earlier, Cisco said. Revenue in the period ended July 28 fell 25 percent to $4.3 billion from $5.72 billion.

Cisco declined to give a forecast beyond the fiscal first quarter. Chambers said the company's ``long-term visibility is still challenging.'' Chambers has cut 8,500 jobs this year and trimmed product lines to cope with a U.S. economic slump and decreasing orders from phone and Internet companies.

``No one really knows when the economic and capital spending .... well, thanks we've had it!
- though they've been off 99%, according to Bloomberg ... the earnings of pennies even are now mere memories of the new era paradigms of the productivity miracle, it seems.

And as Dan Denning says so astute:
'Perhaps what's lacking, though, is a proper perspective. It's not that Wall Street's vision that's poor. It's the Street's understanding of the impact of technology on profit. If only Wall Street knew the story of the chickens with red contact lenses, their foresight might be nearly as good as their hindsight'.

Pop, goes the weasel! ... and the more you try the popping will even pop your eye!...see productivity, says I and find your place in financial security in this waste of analytic perjury.

All told - got gold? cb2

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/07/2001; 19:24:22 MDT - Msg ID: 59182)

R Powell @ # 59164

Sir Rich:

Many moons ago I understood you indicate that you specialized in concrete flatwork. I have on several occasions alluded to my great admiration for you as a man who knows how to perform heavy physical labor and provide for his family. My admiration is not diminished by your clarification that you are an "owner/operator of a one man masonry business ".

Do you do both types of work? Boy I'll bet you have either built or plan to build quite a hiding place for your stash.(grin) Silver takes up so much storage space, but that would not be such a problem for a person with your talents.

I have to go out and hire a person like you to get the job done. I am dysfunctional in these areas. When I was, sixteen I was gently discharged from my tractor-driving job by my girlfriend's father. After backing up with the disk in the ground for the third time and bending the crank all three times I was told, "Bill, you are just not mechanically inclined." Lost my job that very day and my girlfriend a while later.

By the way it is the only job from which I was discharged. Now I am like you in that I can't find any one to fire me because I am self-employed.

It is helpful to all of us that we are not alone in that we gold bugs around ordinary people like ourselves. Ordinary is probably a strange choice of words to use in complimenting another person but I stand with it. One can be both exceptional and ordinary. You are proof of that.

Very respectfully,

HBM

Tree in the Forest

(08/07/2001; 19:26:45 MDT - Msg ID: 59183)

I am worried about silver

Ever since Trail Guide's post about 50 cent silver, I have been questioning silver. I mocked his belief but it continued to eat at me. Now silver is making new lows and Edelson/Weiss have stated a similar opinion. I am no fan of the Safe Money Report. They have been terribly wrong in the past, but even a stopped clock is right twice a day. If silver moves up sharply when gold finally makes it's entrance, well and good. But if the weakness we're seeing now continues, it won't look good for silver. I don't care how useful it is, how big the overhang is, how they're using paper or "black silver" to drive it into the ground or how many reasons there are why it should explode, if it shows weakness at a time when it should show strength, it's time to question what you are doing. I do believe that silver must explode eventually but this might not be the time.

Some words of wisdom from the trader's almanac:

1) Never get emotionally attached to a position.
2) Never let a small loss become a big loss.
3) Always have a stop to prevent big losses.

Don't make the mistake of riding a loser into the ground like people who bought gold at $850. Or people who let a 5 million dollar position in Cisco fall to 1 million. Etc. etc. Have a silver stop in mind. If it falls below your loss tolerance, get out and concentrate on gold. You can buy back your silver at lower prices later on.

All of the above just IMHO. Make your own decisions.

Gandalf the White

(08/07/2001; 19:28:56 MDT - Msg ID: 59184)

Question to Site Steward, aka Palantir, R @ The Tower, Town Crier, et. al.

site steward (8/7/01; 15:56:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 59158)
"I, too, feel that "that issue was not brought to a valid conclusion." Or more accurately, I should say that my own postion on the matter was never fully stated because a small unruly faction of the assembly forced a premature suspension of my open presentation at the midpoint of the series."
*********Pardon me! Does that mean that you are again selected to EDUCATE all of us ? OR only the "small unruly faction" ?
<;-(

Cavan Man

(08/07/2001; 19:36:50 MDT - Msg ID: 59185)

Hey, Randy....

RE: site stewardGive it a break wouldya? Towne Crier: Who loves 'ya baby?

slingshot

(08/07/2001; 19:39:27 MDT - Msg ID: 59186)

Greenspan, Euro, Gold, War.

First I have to give credit to ABUDAHHAD's post 59111 that jump started my CP.
There is the rumor that Greenspan is going to retire sometime during the first half of next year. Should he go early, this would fit into my time line. For Greenspan to retire before 2002 would save him for the embarrasment should the market faulter. Meanwhile the Power Elite do everything they can to keep it together. When he retires they put some unknown in his spot for the fall guy. Exspounded to be the man for the job but makes an honest mistake. At the same time the EURO comes on line backed by gold come into competition with the Russian Chevonot. Forcing all those US Dollars out of Russian hideaways on to the market and back to the USA.With the price of gold steady and all those dollars would be a spring board for the price of gold. The only other player is ISRAEL. Does it not plan to go to war in 2002.
Well it looks like we will have some time to accumulate at low prices.
The gold mines have time to unhedge. the banks have time to retreive their sold gold.

Just put it all together.
Pretty raw info.
Slingshot
Slingshot

Leigh

(08/07/2001; 19:47:01 MDT - Msg ID: 59187)

slingshot - Gold Availability

Watch out for those big Middle Eastern buyers! Midas was saying tonight they're scooping up all they can get their hands on. One day we may wake up and find it's all gone.

Netking

(08/07/2001; 19:55:10 MDT - Msg ID: 59188)

Slingshot

Re: Does it not plan to go to war in 2002?

Netking: IMO it depends whether or not "big brother & sidekick" neutralises the growing Iraqi threat before then for them? There's too much at stake(ie black gold for one) for inactivity. . . "watch this space" yes.

Black Blade

(08/07/2001; 20:00:27 MDT - Msg ID: 59189)

Hedge funds are moving on Argentina

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0,,5-2001271443,00.html
Snippit:

HSBC, the banking group, claimed yesterday that hedge funds were building up speculative positions in Argentina's financial markets, which could trigger a collapse among other emerging economies. Keith Whitson, HSBC's group chief executive, said: "If the rumours are to be believed, there are those building up big speculative positions. It is not at all helpful."

In 1997 global hedge funds, including those run by George Soros, helped to drive down the value of currencies in Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia, leading to a prolonged economic recession across the region. Hedge funds were also partly to blame for driving the UK out of the exchange-rate mechanism nearly a decade ago, after they pushed down the value of the pound.

Black Blade: Would be interesting to know if George Soros is in on this. This could be big news.

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/07/2001; 20:05:17 MDT - Msg ID: 59190)

Tree in the Forest @# 59183

http://www.google.com/search?q=cache:x8SLjEJfy4w:www.knkcollectibles.com/boards/bboc_trade/msgs/6920.shtml++%22SILVER+AT+50+CENTS%22&hl=enSir Tree

No need to worry about silver.

I think TG was talking about silver knuckles. See above link for silver knuckles for 50 cents.

Respectfully,

HBM

slingshot

(08/07/2001; 20:12:00 MDT - Msg ID: 59191)

Leigh, Netking

Leigh, Yes get it while you can.

Netking. The USA does not have the stomach to get into a
escalated war in that region. They may hold Iraqi with the air patrols but IRAQI has smuggled armed commandos into the surrounding countries. Effectively beating the USA to the punch. Israel has opened recruitment stations around the world to bring back enlistees for military service. Time for training and to arm. The war will be a short one but enough to put the dollar euro and chevonot in their proper order. Not to mention Gold.
Slingshot
Too old for Hand to Hand. This Financial War is mor to my liken.

Black Blade

(08/07/2001; 20:35:50 MDT - Msg ID: 59192)

Oil Sands: Tapping Alberta's Energy Gold Mine

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/010807/2014.html
Snippit:

HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug. 7, 2001-- Not since the days of Spindletop has there been such a buzz in the oil industry. However, the buzz heard today is not the sound of oil well gushers spewing black gold into the air, but it is the sound of giant mine shovels and haul trucks digging up the riches of Alberta's oil sands deposits. With an estimated resource of 1.7 trillion barrels of Bitumen, Alberta is sitting on an energy gold mine. Industrialinfo.com is tracking $25 Billion in planned oil sands projects, which include construction of large open pit mines, in-situ (in the ground) oil well fields, upgraders/refineries (HPI), and related infrastructure projects (distribution pipelines, terminals and power plants).

Black Blade: Non-conventional oil coming into its own due to higher prices. However, only a fraction is economic at current prices.

slingshot

(08/07/2001; 20:43:02 MDT - Msg ID: 59193)

(No Subject)

Afew more comments on my last post.

The USA I believe does not have the backing of the Arab World this time.Don't forget world opinion against Israel.
Israel may go it alone.
The Arab States have the oil and now going for the gold.
The Palestinians are the foot hold needed to destroy Israel. They have stated it in their charter. We don't need a big war, just a small one to get Gold moving.
Slingshot

Black Blade

(08/07/2001; 21:05:51 MDT - Msg ID: 59194)

Employment Worse Than Thought?

http://www.dismal.com/thoughts/article.asp?aid=1323
Snippit:

Employment statistics are computed from a survey administered by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. State employment bureaus use their state's sample to estimate monthly state employment figures, while the national BLS office uses the entire sample to formulate nationwide numbers. Because states prepare their own estimates individually and without forced reconciliation by the BLS, the numbers very rarely match, though in theory they should. But the current gap between estimates of national employment and aggregated estimates of state-by-state employment has reached an uncharacteristically large 1 million.

Black Blade: The report is quite revealing. However, no one addresses the fact that many have simply given up looking for employment or have slipped into the "underground economy."

megatron

(08/07/2001; 21:44:39 MDT - Msg ID: 59195)

Leigh

Yes, you are correct, america has now become a vacuous 'concept' that most people have a very hard time understanding. It has been bred out of them. When I explain private property rights to my friends and why Canada never had them, their eyes get glazed over and look confused. It's sad. My girl's dad always says about Russia, "They're workin out of it and we're workin into it"

(08/07/2001; 22:31:38 MDT - Msg ID: 59196)

US PRODUCTIVITY - NOT SO PRODUCTIVE

US PRODUCTIVITY - NOT SO PRODUCTIVE

Figures released today indicate US Productivity gained + 2.5 % for the 2nd Q
2001.

U.S. Productivity = Output - hours worked.

Output rose +.1 %
Hours worked declined -2.4 %

The rise in output was minimal, and the overall productivity figure received its
big boost from the fact that many workers have recently lost their jobs.

It would seem that the economy is still in need of substantial improvement and
such measures that would effect this improvement.

Ax

Netking

(08/07/2001; 23:03:20 MDT - Msg ID: 59197)

Slingshot - M/East

That is correct Sir Slingshot, USA (& UK) invlovement would be by air strikes to neutralise the Iraq strike capability against Israel, which it openly infers it wants to see removed from the map books (along with it's people). A prolonged ground campaign with losses is an American Presidents re-election bogy and would not be a "pre-planned" option by any in their right mind.

The new northern Iraq air control centre & base (with Chinese & Russian fibre optic technology )is causing allied concern & fueling a strong desire to have it removed. Israels immediate area of conflict, Palestine, appears to be wearing down somewhat faster (so far). Israel is playing "hard ball", given the provocation this may have been their only option for survival?

The 800 Iraqi commandos sent was not a blinding success, with many pinned down in the desert or captured (check out post #59012 for much more on this).

President Saddam Hussein will deliver a national address Wednesday amid rising tension with the United States and speculation that he is laying the groundwork for his successor, read this link for more: http://www.cnn.com/2001/WORLD/meast/08/07/iraq.saddam.reut/index.html

Reports carried in the Arab press said a large British and U.S. strike was imminent. U.S. officials said they were reviewing their options. Senior Iraqi officials stayed in their offices until the early hours of Tuesday on alert in case of an attack.

Meanwhile Arafat in Jordan say's: Israel has begun implementing the 'Oranim' plan, read more here: http://test.haaretzdaily.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=61290&contrassID=1⊂ContrassID=1&sbSubContrassID=0&listSrc=Y

This whole region is a problem which will not go away quickly & will feature much in the news in the days ahead, whether people like it, or not. - regards Murray

Black Blade

(08/07/2001; 23:09:30 MDT - Msg ID: 59198)

RE: megatron - Russia

Funny you should say that about the US and Russia. I have said that Russia is sailing toward freedom while the US sails away from it and we pass like two ships in the night trading places.

megatron

(08/07/2001; 23:21:18 MDT - Msg ID: 59199)

Gold travels

Just got back from a week in northern central BC travelling the area around the old Pioneer/Bralorne gold mine areas. They pulled a couple of million ounces out since 1900,and still have a couple more in reserves or resource status. A fantastic 3 hour drive through glacier valleys north of Whistler will get you there. 4x4 only, I strongly urge! Beautiful ice green lakes and lots of fish too. So many abandoned buildings and machinery. Lots of old shafts fallen in. If you are in BC check it out. It's a fantastic experience for a 'goldbug'.

Spartacus

(08/08/2001; 00:10:11 MDT - Msg ID: 59200)

@Belgian

So where are we now? I�m not sure. How long will the love affair between Greenspan and the bondmarket last? I don�t know. But one thing is for sure, when it ends(if it ends!), it�s game over.View Yesterday's Discussion.

Bascom Toadvine

(08/08/2001; 00:26:11 MDT - Msg ID: 59201)

Greetings from NZ down under

On my way home from a month of touring Aussie and Kiwi habitats and yes they still carry gold on their shop shelves.

They now have slightly less... :-)

ski

(08/08/2001; 01:48:22 MDT - Msg ID: 59202)

Netking or other Silver posters

I have been following the silver story since about 1983. One question comes to my mind that no one ever seems to address. WITH THE SILVER DEFICIT BEING WHAT IT IS, WHY DOESN'T THE SIZE OF THE COMEX SILVER STOCKPILE EVER DECREASE??

If the silver deficit is for real, it would seem to me that we should be seeing a steady erosion of this stockpile.

Also, if world supplies of silver are as thin as known inventories indicate, shouldn't we be seeing instances of various silver products being unavailable at coin shops and the like?

It would be most interesting to find out that coin shops in various parts of the country are suddenly finding it impossible to secure a supply of silver dollars,bags of junk silver, or silver rounds.

As a final footnote, it seems to me that this is exactly the kind of information that the INTERNET and this wonderful WEBSITE is most suited to handle.

Netking

(08/08/2001; 03:11:35 MDT - Msg ID: 59203)

Ski / Bascom Toadvine

Ski(59202), Hello to you, I wonder if you're the same Ski from "Bart's Castle"?(if so I like your posts). All good questions that defey logic to anybody that thinks about it. Maybe the Comex stash is the last one around of any note, maybe that will be the final indicator Ski?

PM leasing has been suspected to have contributed much of the deficit of gold(refer GATA)and ditto for silver as well. A case of how to multiply the loaves & fishes to feed five million, and all without working any miracles this time!

Obviously, some silver is coming from sources we can't identify, from leasing. Whether it is from The Central Banks of the Phillipenes, or the PRC, is immaterial. This is source is highly uneconomic and unsustainable. But take a look for substantiation on the China flows, and you won't see an iota.

These China stories for example are made up by GFMS, and I challenge them to verify their statements. It's always, they know privately, but can't back it up publicly. It's pure rubbish, just like their inventory figures. To think the Silver Association publishes GFMS's work as fact, is a disgrace. If they can't back up what they claim to be is true, just assume what they're saying is garbage, and you'll be safe.
------------------------------------------------------------
Bascom Toadvine(59201)
Where are you posting from?

Canuck

(08/08/2001; 04:15:21 MDT - Msg ID: 59204)

@ Netking

Silver has not been used in coin for some 30 years. Surely this has a huge impact on silver inventories?

Let us assume, say in 1960 there was X billion ounces of silver for the use of minting and with the decision to stop using silver does it not seem plausible that inventories would drop dramatically?

I am blown away by the complete and total opposites in opinion regarding silver. What is(are) the reason(s) for this?

TIA,

Canuck.

Rockgrabber

(08/08/2001; 08:13:28 MDT - Msg ID: 59205)

SKI: Local Coin Shops are hurting for SILVER (at least mine)

I have aways had a choice of buying 100 ounce silver bars or 10 ounce ones, or the bags of pre 64 silver coins. Now only sometimes the bags of pre 64 stuff he has. He is charging and paying a premium for the 10 ounce bars, and the 100 ounce ones just dont come around anymore he has told me. I did ask how many people come in and buy silver, guess what. I have been the first in years to take his 100 ounce silver bars (besides himself). He sells them to dealers normally. But now there are none to sell. $4.15, incredible. When golds paper market fails and the price heads to 180, sure the price may be 180, but where are you going to find it? Silver may keep going down, but are we even going to beable to find it if it does? There will only be a few folks who even know that the price says one thing, but you cant buy the silver for the price as it is just to hard to find?? Soon?

USAGOLD

(08/08/2001; 08:35:13 MDT - Msg ID: 59206)

Today's Commentary & Review: Grinding to an End of Summer Doldrums

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html8/8/01

In Brief: Gold traded sideways overseas as the market ground its
way through the beginnings of the last leg of the summer doldrums
season. The news from India reported from Bridge News might be the
first sign that we are coming out of the traditionally slow time of the
year. It looks like the market wants to test $267 on the downside. We
have seen no signs of short covering as yet. As a matter of fact Comex
volumes, an indicator, continue to ratchet down as interest in the gold
futures' market continues to deteriorate. Too many years of being
dragged through the Comex grinder has left a bad taste with most
investors. Many have migrated out of the moribund futures market and
into the safer confines of the physical metal. Physical acquisitions by
safe haven investors is running at a steady pace despite the lack of
price action with the Mid-East and Asia taking the lead. Most of the
gold buyers we've talked to -- both within the U.S. and abroad -- cite
stock market concerns, the massive U.S. public and consumer debt
and general financial uncertainty as reasons for hedging their
portfolios with gold. Not surprisingly, both gold and and the Dow are
where we left them over a week ago when I started on News &
Views. The Dow is exactly where it was on July 30 -- the last time I
did an update. The summer doldrums do not affect just gold. They
affect all investment markets.

Note: I have completed the expanded version of News & Views
and it is now in editing. We've decided to go with a quarterly version
of the newsletter to supplement the USAGOLD web site. Most of our
clients are now "on-line" where information can be had at the touch of
a link. We decided that News & Views had to be upgraded to reflect
the change in public information gathering habits. In a way, the
change marks the passing of an era. I can remember when News &
Views was one of the only means for the average gold investor to
obtain untainted information about gold. For many, it was a lifeline.
Things have changed rapidly over the past five years and thankfully
we somehow got the message early enough to change with it in a way
that benefits not only our clientele but the public at large. We average
nearly ten new potential USAGOLD clients requesting information
packets per day from what goes on at this site. There are thousands
who visit daily and immediately recognize that this site can be relied
upon for the high quality information and services for the gold
owner/investor/advocate. Gold has hardly lost its glamour and appeal
as far as the public is concerned despite what its critics (primarily in
the mainstream financial press) try to tell us on nearly a daily basis. As
a matter of fact, quite often we hear from our newer clientele what a
pleasant surprise it was to find such a robust and abiding interest at
this gathering place. Gold is alive and well, my fellow goldmeisters,
and athe subject of intent interest and scrutiny at www.usagold.com.

I would like to invite anyone who has an interest in gold to go to the
link immediately above and register for an information packet. That
way you will be sure to receive our first News & Views: A
Quarterly Review of Forcasts, Commentary and Analsysis
on the Economy and Precious Metals along with temporary
access to our client only Commentary & Review page.

Request Information

To read the rest of today's report, we inite you to join us at our
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For more information on gold coin or bullion and price quotes, please
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For a starter information packet which includes our monthly newsletter
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please click here. Yes! We send out packets to international
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Buena Fe

(08/08/2001; 08:45:51 MDT - Msg ID: 59207)

The obvious must read

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT37N3F04QC&live=true&useoverridetemplate=IXL8L4VRRBC&tagid=IXLC078IH7CThis one's a hoot, O'l Dudley of GS is putting on his parachute, as the plane has reached safe jump altitude.
________________________________________________________
Snippit....

No more strong dollar

US policymakers risk losing credibility if they continue to talk up the currency, believes William Dudley - Aug 08 2001 00:00:00

The time has come to scrap the strong dollar policy. It made sense when the US economy was booming, because a strong currency helped to suppress inflationary pressures. But in a downturn this approach has outlived its usefulness. It undermines the effectiveness of lower interest rates in stimulating growth by undercutting the competitiveness of US exports.

A strong dollar policy also no longer makes sense because it is unlikely to prove sustainable. The US has a large current account deficit, which has grown sharply in recent years. This imbalance creates a risk. If foreign investors' appetite for dollar-denominated assets were to diminish, the result could be a sharp plunge in the value of the dollar - and subsequent potential havoc in the US bond and equity markets...................

............Alternatively, assume that jawboning has succeeded in pushing the dollar up. If so, there is some fluff in the dollar's high present valuation. This implies that the strong dollar policy should be scrapped now to minimise the size of the downward adjustment that must sooner or later occur.

I believe this second view is the more persuasive. There are good reasons to suppose that Treasury comments have artificially supported the dollar's valuation somewhat.

First, the behaviour of both foreign exchange traders and the Bill Clinton and George W. Bush administrations suggests that rhetoric does matter. How else does one explain the close attention paid to whether the Bush team will depart from the strong dollar mantra espoused by Robert Rubin and Larry Summers, Treasury secretaries under Mr Clinton?

Second, the fact that the dollar is well above Goldman Sachs' estimates of its fundamental value versus most major currencies also suggests that rhetoric may matter. The strong dollar rhetoric may support the currency by affecting the risk premium demanded by foreign investors to hold dollar-denominated assets.

But while the strong dollar rhetoric may have worked to date, continued adherence to it is becoming risky. The fundamentals of the chronic large current account deficit point to a change in the exchange rate over the medium to long term. If the mantra is still in place when this happens, the loss of credibility could exacerbate the dollar's decline......................

Tommy P

(08/08/2001; 09:03:17 MDT - Msg ID: 59208)

Layoffs

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-080801layoffs.storyInteresting!

Cavan Man

(08/08/2001; 09:03:46 MDT - Msg ID: 59209)

Buena Fe

.......or, GS goes short US equities.

Old Yeller

(08/08/2001; 09:19:11 MDT - Msg ID: 59210)

Bush/O'Neill; playing the same old song

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3Q3H724QC&live=true&tagid=IXLC078IH7C&Collid=Any
Notice that Turkey,a far more serious debacle in my opinion gets a mere two sentence mention.This article seems to imply that the new team,after making lots of noise to the contrary,realizes that maintaining perceptions of stability is paramount.Our little yellow friend may be confined to the corral for a while.

USAGOLD,thanks for the commentary.Is there anything new in the Indian rupee situation,this currency was looking a tad vulnerable?

Thanks to cjk for the link.

BR549

(08/08/2001; 09:24:12 MDT - Msg ID: 59211)

Strong dollar

Buena Fe

Just look who is for a strong dollar:

Past Treasury Secretary
Importers
Banksters
U.S. consumers
Foreign sellers
Fed/Greenspan

Farmers and me are for weak $.

Regards from Cornfield County.

Sierra Madre

(08/08/2001; 10:17:47 MDT - Msg ID: 59212)

Silver in Europe, FWIW

A private bank in Switzerland was instructed to obtain physical silver for a client, a couple of months ago.

It took the bank WEEKS to gather physical silver in an amount of one or two tons.

The price was some 5% above spot.

The client was satisfied to have the silver at that price.

The above might be of interest.

Sierra

BR549

(08/08/2001; 12:11:32 MDT - Msg ID: 59213)

Newest Beige Book

http://www.federalreserve.gov/FOMC/BeigeBook/2001/20010808/default.htmRetail sales, manufacturing, shipping, transportation, bankster profits, dollar, gold �. EVERYTHING DOWN

ski

(08/08/2001; 12:55:28 MDT - Msg ID: 59214)

Notes on ......... "WHEN TO BUY"

I visit this site on a daily basis but only post if I think that I have something unique or useful to say. Thus, I thought that my personal notes on "WHEN TO BUY" might be useful to others.

1. BUY .... when you can't find a bull, when the investment is commonly thought of as foolish, stupid, ignorant or forgotten, when everyone is pessimistic and trying to sell, on bad news, at market bottoms, when the market is quiet, when trading volume is low, when prices are stable or cheap, when the item is still easy to find, buy before people and dollars start chasing it, when EVERYONE else is negative (possibly when even the normally astute contrarians, professional speculators and tired, old, diehard bulls have temporarily abandoned their correct, independent thinking and thrown in the towel), when nobody else is or on weakness, not on strength, when there has been an extended period of selling, when buying DECISIONS are thought of as difficult, daring, or speculative by SOPHISTICATED investors, when novice investors don't have a clue and are very, very far behind the information curve, when trading volume is low, when you can't find a bull (or a real person who is actually ACTING like a bull).

2. Anytime you can buy a commodity that is in demand for less than it's cost of production, in the long haul it will pay off.

3. In the short run, markets move on the public perception of the facts (not reality). In the long run, markets move on the reality or actual fundamentals.

4. When a market closes above or below a key target for three days in a row, assume the trend is in place.

5. The idea is to be in a given investment only when the odds of its going up appear to be 90 percent or better. And to be short when the odds if its going down are equally strong.

6. When a bottom is at hand, a feature article with strong emphasis results in only sporadic buying or otherwise has almost no positive impact on the market. Nobody cares.

7. At bottoms, the most common or typical investor is the very sophisticated investor. At tops, the most naive. Tops are when Joe Schmo has finally caught on.

8. It is rarely wise to "chase" any market when prices are charging ahead or even right after they have had a significant run up. (The converse is also true for falling markets).

9. Knowing "WHAT TO BUY" (or sell when shorting) is only one third of the problem. Knowing "WHEN TO BUY" and "WHEN TO SELL" are the other nearly equally important considerations. Human nature tends to pay the closest attention to "what" and not enough to both "when's".

10. Jim Blanchard quote ...."The smartest investors buy when an investment is cheap. It sounds silly to point out such an obvious investment truth. But history shows that only a very elite (and small) group of investors has ever been able to apply this simple wisdom to the market."

..................

Netking, This is the only site I post on....Ski

MarkeTalk

(08/08/2001; 13:48:14 MDT - Msg ID: 59215)

Stock Market and U.S. Dollar High?

With today's market action (DJIA down about 170 points and falling fast and the U.S.Dollar slipping again), it appears that the Bradley Indicator may have scored a direct hit on August 7th. As posted earlier, this indicator had predicted months in advance that a top in the U.S. stock market would occur on August 6-7th and then it would be downhill until early December. Falling stocks tend to correlate with a falling U.S. Dollar and that is certainly the picture today. It was nice to see the counterbalance--gold--rise in response. We will need to see some follow through into next week when the dreaded August 19th (new moon) arrives, and whether the Russian prediction of the collapse of the U.S. Dollar comes to pass.

Once again, I am sounding the alarm to all of my clients here at Centennial to batton down the hatches and to shore up their gold portfolios at these amazingly and ridiculously cheap prices. By Christmas, I believe that gold will be on everyone's lips, as gold slices through $300/oz. on its way much, much higher.

Netking

(08/08/2001; 14:03:24 MDT - Msg ID: 59216)

Canuck

Canuck(59204)Silver has not been used in coin for some 30 years. Surely this has a huge impact on silver inventories?

Let us assume, say in 1960 there was X billion ounces of silver for the use of minting and with the decision to stop using silver does it not seem plausible that inventories would drop dramatically?

I am blown away by the complete and total opposites in opinion regarding silver. What is(are) the reason(s) for this?
----------------------------------------------------------
Netking - Silver coinage in Mexico may "save their bacon"(USSR & PRC & others to come have shown interest on a smaller(?) scale). I guess much has been melted down & used.

The divergent opinions do not surprise me Canuck, there is so much "disinformation" in the market place, the stakes are big yes.

At the end of the day, "Wisdom is justified by her children". What will matter will be the runs on the board(price) that matters. Sure I hold some paper (for the short term) but I'm a physical long-term holder & am relaxed at any short-term washouts & will accumulate more.

I've looked into the fundamentals as much as I can & have relied on my own judgement & backed myself.

The days ahead will be interesting Sir! - regards Murray

Canuck

(08/08/2001; 16:35:37 MDT - Msg ID: 59217)

@ Netking

Thanks for the notes sir.

Yes the 'disinformation' is abundant, to the point where it seems only two camps exist; the silver 'to the moon' camp and the 'silver-is dead' camp. There seems to be no middle ground.

The fact that silver coinage stopped in 1967/68? seems to explain to me, at least to a degree, why inventories have plummeted. Now ask 50 people in 'the know' about silver use in photography and you get 25 'camp 1' answers and 25 'camp 2' two answers.

I am getting a little worried. I accumulated a modest stash of gold pre-Y2K and since a modest stash of silver since. I think I am more comfortable with the gold at this moment. Silver does seem more 'commodity' based, yes?

I am getting a little worried about my overall exposure to both. At first guess I am probably close to 50% exposed in terms of total net worth in gold and silver. 'Missed opportunities grow very large.

Thoughts/advice?

Canuck.

P.S.: Of course, advice will be construed as of the 'non-investment' nature.

P.P.S. Sierra's post a few below blow me away. I am not saying it is 'disinformation', far from it. How is this information to be interpreted?

R Powell

(08/08/2001; 17:18:38 MDT - Msg ID: 59218)

SKi / Silver

Ski asked earlier (59202) "...with the silver deficit being what it is, why doesn't the size of the Comex silver stockpile decrease?"
Good question.
It may be that industrial and photographic users buy directly from the suppliers without going through any exchanges. These two uses account for the vast amount of silver useage. Coins and jewelry use combined appears to be less than 20% of total use depending upon whose figures we look at.
An Analyst named David Morgan stated (this past Spring) that as of the end of 1999, there were 331 million ounces of silver in storage. This is 331 million ounces of KNOWN reserves. He got this number from the "World Silver Survey 2000". He says this includes 129 million ounces held by Berkshire Hathaway (Buffett) so, he reasoned, there were about 200 million ounces available with an ongoing deficit of about 10 million per month. This means that, if the supply/demand situation remained the same, there was enough to cover the deficit for 20 months from year end 1999.
Twenty months from that time ends at the end of this month.
The biggest mystery in silver is "how much more is available that we don't know about".
I believe the Comex may be the last place users of physical silver will buy. When they are forced to take delivery there (when their usual sellers can not fill their orders) the world may wake up to the shortage situation.
Netking is correct in that rumors of PRC or other silver sources keep appearing, usually from places that can not be verified. There are also rumors as Sierra Madre mentioned, of shortages.
To be continued,

site steward

(08/08/2001; 17:19:01 MDT - Msg ID: 59219)

Federal funds trade on target this morning, the Fed adds to bank reserves anyway

Banks were able to fetch overnight funding in line with the FOMC target rate at 3.75 percent, so it would seem that the Trading Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York would be in for a light day having no impetus from the monetary policy side of their objectives.

That being said, however, the Fed not only added $4.245 billion in temporary reserves to the nation's banking system through open market operations with overnight repurchase agreements, the Fed also engaged in an outright purchase of Treasury bills to permanently add $2.13 billion to banking system reserves.

--------
Extra note:
To Gandalf, on "education", who said to me yesterday, ---"Pardon me! Does that mean that you are again selected to EDUCATE all of us?"---

It seems that your crystal ball gave you access to an email message I provided for the eyes of somebody else. A most remarkable tool you have there! And if this is the score, I can only hope you were privy to the context of the whole exchange.

As I think about your question, I am left wondering why such a question is posed to begin with -- after all, we all know that "education" in life for every person abruptly stops the very moment they walk out of their public and private schools. It is surely unthinkable that someone might, of their own free will, be inclined to seek out additional information or insights wherever they might reasonably be found.

On the level now, that paragraph was written "tongue-in-cheek", but judging from the tone you offered, am I to conclude that you hold such attempts to foster the ease of post-graduate education as completely wasted efforts, unappreciated by all others?

Or put another way, whether intended as educational or not, is it unacceptable for me in particular to offer such news as you see in this post for fear that somebody might become better educated as a consequence of reading it? The horror of it!

I am quite sure I can put your fears to rest that I might educate innocent bystanders. A website such as this will only provide as much or as little educational value as each individual is willing or able to get out of it as a result of their own directed effort to participate, absorb, and ultimately think for themselves.

I remain puzzled that my involvement in this website operation has somehow become a source of displeasure for you in particular. Are you not appeased that, so long as we are both civil about it (civility is the KEY), you remain free to post whatever you think about gold, whereas I -- in an official capacity -- am now constrained (by rule of experience) to regurgitate only the mainstream news so as not to excessively stir the passions and thoughts of those very few who have no mind to master themselves for civil discussion? Who wins here?

Again, this entire website can give only as much (or as little) value as the individual visitor strives to gain from it. Methinks you have put too much upon my door if you see more than this when you come knocking.

R

BR549

(08/08/2001; 17:19:51 MDT - Msg ID: 59220)

Notes on ......... "WHEN TO BUY"

@ ski (#: 59214)

Enjoyed your post. I am sure that you have made a lot of money knowing when to buy, sell, and what to buy. One quick question though in re: "2. Anytime you can buy a commodity that is in demand for less than it's cost of production, in the long haul it will pay off."

If the current cost of mining gold around $290U$/oz. and the current spot gold around $268U$/oz., how far away is "the long haul"?

My other comment is: I would think your guidelines assume a supply & demand driven market free of manipulative practices. Or do you? Thanks for the input.

By the way, it was in the mid/high 90's down here in Cornfield County today (it is usually hot in August but this Hurricane has cooled things off). What is the problem with the low 90's in NY and the Midwest? It would seem like "SprangTime" to us.

Regards from Cornfield County.

site steward

(08/08/2001; 17:35:50 MDT - Msg ID: 59221)

News for Canuck on silver

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010808/n08317553.htmlYou said, "it seems only two camps exist; the silver 'to the moon' camp and the 'silver-is dead' camp."----

Don't close the casket yet. This article shows that silver's salvation is at hand...er, at foot, rather.
----
HEADLINE: A silver dagger against stinky sandals?

NEW YORK, Aug 8 (Reuters) - If the hot summer weather has you wearing athletic sandals with black rubber soles and Velcro fasteners, and the sandals have gotten damp, you've probably noticed an offensive odor wafting around. The marketer of Teva sandals ... has a solution ... an antimicrobial compound built in. The silver-based compound is effective against a broad range of bacteria, mold and mildew, the company said.
----
R

R Powell

(08/08/2001; 18:03:00 MDT - Msg ID: 59222)

More on Silver

Another reason for the apparent lack of drawdown of silver stock on the Comex is that the Comex is a paper game of futures and options. Both Butler and Morgan have surmised that those consuming supply on a regular basis do not bother with exchanges. However, there are usually existing contracts for much more silver than Comex holds and if users are forced to turn there for supply, then many of the monthly contracts will call for delivery at some point and a tremendous short squeeze will occur.
Canuck, the Strategic Defence Dept shipped the last 13 million ounces of it's (and the U.S. government's) silver to the mints for Silver Eagles. This was shipped this past Spring (? if memory is correct). Supposedly, this would last through 2001. Depending upon whose numbers we look at, this is the last of around 4-5 billion ounces that the government possessed right after WW2. However, the amount of silver used in coins is small in comparison to photography and industrial use.
I read a tremendous amount of opinions from many, many commodity analysts and almost none see the ongoing deficit of an inelastic metal.
I believe most fund traders are simply chart readers (trend followers) who are totally ignorant of the fundamentals of supply and demand. Maybe the smart money is quietly positioning themselves long but then again, maybe the smart money knows of large available stores of silver that we are ignorant of??
I find it hard to believe that analysts such as Butler, Morgan, Buffett, Soros and Gates who are all invested on the long side of silver, would not know of such supplies if they do exist.
If we are reading this correctly, it will probably continue right up to the time when industrial users can not get enough from their suppliers. If so, then the POS could concievable lock "limit-up" for days on the Comex. If this happens, spot POS will not be limited and could skyrocket in literally minutes!
I'm obviously biased from the long side but can not see how this situation can continue indefinitely (or even for much longer). However, this is, as always, just one poor man's opinion and not investment advice.
Also, I've sent a check for the current World Silver Survey 2001 which will have numbers through the end of year 2000. Hopefully, it has a great deal of info so I don't get the lack of new news/info Jones. I need a constant silver/gold "happenings" or fix to keep (as auspec would say) the Moxy and Mo-Jo going.
Sometimes when the supply/demand/carryover numbers of a commodity simply don't compute, the USDA (in things like grains) or others (like the GFMS or the World Silver Survey) will be forced to simply change the estimated available supply from previous years. It seems that analysing commodity fundamentals is somewhat like studing philosophy in that often there are no correct answers (or numbers). Simply put, no one knows for sure how much exists. At least, no one that I've heard from. As far as the market goes, it's not listening anyway, IMHO.
Rich

Solomon Weaver

(08/08/2001; 18:41:09 MDT - Msg ID: 59223)

Did someone say silver??

Tree in the Forest

"Don't make the mistake of riding a loser into the ground like people who bought gold at $850. Or people who let a 5 million dollar position in Cisco fall to 1 million. Etc. etc. Have a silver stop in mind. If it falls below your loss tolerance, get out and concentrate on gold. You can buy back your silver at lower prices later on."

Hey Tree....here is my silver stop.....if the thousand (hypothetical) ounces I have sitting in junk and rounds ever magically turns into 900 ounces, I will figure something is causing my silver to vanish and I will sell.

One part of my silver stash is 500 1998 Eagles I picked up in 1999 on a pre y2k buy.....I keep one of those coins in my pocket and engage people in conversations about it....it tends to wear down and get a circulated look...perhaps diminishing the value slightly....but that loss is compensated by the educational value....and I tell people "for less than $4000 you can get 500 of these, how much did you invest in the NASDAQ"....I like jazz and there is this old song that Sinatra sang and Diana Krall has done a nice job with..."the way you sing off key...oh THEY CAN'T TAKE THAT AWAY FROM ME...." It sort of runs through my head every time...there are about 50 people out there who know from this fool that it is actually possible to buy silver coins and get them in the mail...and of course I always tell them about USAGold...for education and physical gold....I wonder how many took up my advice.

I am extremely excited to see the level of interest that little brother silver has commanded around here as of late. The poor man's gold.

What I see holding silver down is the fact that 800 million leased ounces times a $4.5 is "only $3.6 billion"...where the 12,000 ton leased gold ounces times $10 million a ton is "$120 billion". As long is there is "any" decent paper liquidity left, the paper tigers will dominate the quoted price of silver. All you need to keep silver paper price under control is a flyswatter.

Does this mean silver is a bad investment?

40 years ago, there was enough silver in vaults to give more than 1 ounce to each world citizen. In the same 40 years, about 1/6 of the world's citizens living in developed nations have consumed about 15 ounces per capita of silver and about 40% of that has come from reserves we no longer had.

Now, we want (must) to create a world in the next 40 years where population increases by say 2 billion, but the number of "developed nation citizens" increases by 2-3 billion....another way to say this is that we will quadruple the number of people using silver, probably see a 20-30% per capita increase in silver production, and we must make more than 100% of our needs going forward, since we have exhausted our stockpiles.

And this has nothing to do with the poor man realizing he might "invest, save, hoard silver".

So folks, I am poor old Solomon, but I am pretty much expecting to live the next 40 years, so I'm pretty sure I'll find the right time to "sell" silver down the road.....

Big smile to all you closet silver bugs (Trail Guide included).

Poor Old Solomon

R Powell

(08/08/2001; 19:01:42 MDT - Msg ID: 59224)

HBM/Tree in Forest

HBM, I just read your post from yesterday. Thanks for the kind words. We're not only both self employed, we're also the same age (picked that up from one of your earlier posts). We all have to work for a living. Most self employed are reasonably happy in what they do, probably because they've found something they have a knack for and are good at. Concrete work isn't that hard because I like doing it and could never again tolerate (or afford) pay by the hour or working without making the decisions that affect what I have to deal with! Also, it leaves me time to pursue other research, often here. Independence and an interest in gold/silver seem to go hand in hand.
Tree, your (59183) question of why the POS does not go up, especially in the face of the ongoing deficit is a question I ask often. I can only guess that too few see the situation as we do. Obviously, there is more selling than buying on the exchanges where the price is determined. Either the market is blind or we are?? I've noticed from thepetitionsite.com that far fewer signatures had been collected than I would have guessed. We may be far fewer than we think we are. I think even the majority of those who study these markets will be truely amazed when POG and POS go up sharply. But, who knows? Butler has been screaming
for higher silver prices for years.
So many questions, so few answers?
Rich

Black Blade

(08/08/2001; 19:06:42 MDT - Msg ID: 59225)

Forbes Body Count

http://www.forbes.com/2001/01/30/layoffs.html
More carcasses added the the growing "Bone Pile." There are likely to be more layoffs over the coming months. The High Tech industry has been hit especially hard. Where college grads were given jobs ahead of graduation, many now are recieving letters from these propective employers informing them that those jobs are no longer available. A real life lesson for many.

auspec

(08/08/2001; 19:10:11 MDT - Msg ID: 59226)

Rich & Soloman

Thanks for the silver posts. Only two variables remain with silver:

1- Unofficial silver supply.

2- Timing for the bull.

I would sure hate to wander the wilderness another 40 years, but of course that will never be necessary. They can't even wag the dog on us with silver, as war is extraordinarily bullish for precious and non precious metals. Re-read this last sentence all silver fans! Gee, I wonder if there will be any wars in the next several years?
Anyone, what are the chartists calling for in silver for a low? I believe some are absolutely delighted to see $4.15 POS, as had been looking for it.
Remember, all those freaked out by this Victor Flores {?} guru with Weiss investments, same folks called for $200 POG right before the WA and $330 POG.
If a billion ounces remain to continue to throw at a free silver market, so what? The low POS simply prohibits supply from gaining enough steam to balance the long term equation. Buy your commodities well below the cost of production and patiently await the renaissance.
Be the first one on your block,
To have your fortune come home in a box!
Sorry,
auspec

P.S. Once again, The Constitution, a brilliant document in search of a country.

Black Blade

(08/08/2001; 19:14:23 MDT - Msg ID: 59227)

RE: R Powell and HBM

Self Employment! I wouldn't have it any other way. It is great to sell one's skills on the open market to the highest bidder. That is why I closed up shop in Mining country (North Nevada)and came to the Petroleum side. It is a freedom that unfortunately many don't have. I have been self employed for many years and I could never work for some imbecil with an IQ below that of your typical toaster, or some company that tries to take advantage of a slowing economy by requesting that contractors charge lower rates and other concessions. Sure, the government paper work is a nightmare at times, but that is why we have CPA's I guess. Cheers!

- Black Blade (Scientist at Large)

Black Blade

(08/08/2001; 19:22:07 MDT - Msg ID: 59228)

Asian Markets Collapse

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asian markets look ugly tonight. A virtual "Sea of Red." It could continue for a while. US markets don't look good either. The US market indices are grossly overvalued due to falling earnings giving rise to absurd PE ratios. How much is one willing to paying for each dollar in earnings or even the propects of a company with no earnings? Sleepers are beginning to awaken and face reality. I suspect many will take their remaining chips off the table.

- Black Blade

Tannehill

(08/08/2001; 19:30:36 MDT - Msg ID: 59229)

Flat Panel Displays

If you have a flat panel display, you may be looking at the reason for the demise of several silver mines.

That's all from Tannehill.

Black Blade

(08/08/2001; 19:31:58 MDT - Msg ID: 59230)

Stocks Fall on Fed Report, Cisco View

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010808/business_markets_stocks_dc_511.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks fell on Wednesday as a bleak report on the economy exacerbated Wall Street's worries about tumbling corporate profits and spooked investors already upset by a dismal quarterly forecast from technology bellwether Cisco Systems Inc. (Nasdaq:CSCO) ``It's just a continuation of no good news and nothing to really demand that people step up and pat the pony and start buying stocks,'' said Ned Collins, a trader at Daiwa Securities America.

The Federal Reserve, in its anecdotal survey of national economic conditions, also known as the ``beige book,'' said the economy remained sluggish in June and July, and the manufacturing sector's woes had begun to bleed into other areas of the economy. ``What's weighing on people is that recovery isn't coming any time soon,'' said Peter Boockvar, a trader for Miller Tabak & Co. ``Here we are already into the third quarter and we don't see signs of an upturn. Investors have to re-evaluate their exposure to the stock market.''

Black Blade: A good time to look at hard assets before the coming plunge into the abyss. Can't hold a few barrels of oil? Then try gold and silver. Perhaps we are facing the "Great Depression II."

Max Rabbitz

(08/08/2001; 19:43:18 MDT - Msg ID: 59231)

Site Steward

I for one welcome any and all attempts to educate. There is much confusion in the land. My Crystal Ball fails. Here is something I'm a bit confused by. The Fed appears to be adding lots of reserves to the system. My understanding is that these reserves can only be turned into multiple quantities of money by the wonder of fractional reserve banking and then only if someone borrows. Yet the "Beige book" today said the demand for loans was slack. Does this Fed action thus only increase the potential for money inflation?

BTW.... was it you who defined money as an abstract unit of value? I like it. Fits the digital age. Sometimes I think people like to have it both ways. They want to be able to earn interest on an asset yet have it a stable wealth value. But with all honesty you can only earn real interest on something that you put at risk. The more risk the more interest. And anything put at risk will vary in value according to the winds of fate. If you want stability.......buy gold......and don't lease it.

Tree in the Forest

(08/08/2001; 19:51:05 MDT - Msg ID: 59232)

All-silver

For me the issue is not whether silver will fly. I'll take the three wise men's word on that. It's where will it go before it takes off that's bothering me. Sure you could have bought gold in 1985 at $500(?) an oz and held it for 16 years(and counting) knowing that eventually it would be worth more. You could have bought stocks in 1929 and held them for 40 years and eventually made money. And those holding Cisco will eventually get their money back too. The problem is that buy and hold isn't always best option if the opportunity cost is high. In addition to physical silver, there are silver mining stocks which may fall significantly if silver is a no-show. It doesn't pay to hold a stock while it loses half or more of its value. All I'm saying is, keep your eye on the POS. That's all I'm saying.

Black Blade

(08/08/2001; 19:52:21 MDT - Msg ID: 59233)

Red-hot U.S. Midwest sets power records, outages

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010808/n08127989.html
Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Sweltering temperatures is sucking up electricity supplies from the U.S. heartland, taxing power grids, causing heat-related outages and sparking fresh records for power use. ``We've had a string of 90 degree-plus (32 C) days, and the latest heat wave has been the hottest and longest,'' said Mary Sandok, a spokeswoman with Minneapolis, Minn.-based Xcel Energy Inc. (NYSE:XEL).

Steve Brash, a spokesman for Cincinnati, Ohio-based Cinergy Corp. (NYSE:CIN), said that while ECAR's capacity margin was less than 10 percent two years ago, it is now more than 12 percent. Unlike California's relatively spartan power grid, the Midwest has a strong interconnected transmission system with about 14 interconnections in and out of Cinergy, Brash said. He also noted that temperatures held above 90 degrees Fahrenheit for two straight weeks in 1999. ``We haven't had that in this period,'' Brash said, adding there were at least two days last week in which temperatures did not reach 90 degrees (32 C).

Black Blade: Decaying energy grid is overtaxed and can't keep up with demand. Anytime we have a little excess heat or cold, the cracks in the system are exposed. More power is needed and it is in short supply. This situation is pervasive all over the US. Grasshoppers everywhere are opposed to building new infrastructure and finding new energy supplies, yet they complain about higher energy costs. I guess they are simply products of the US education system. Energy costs will remain high and these costs are passed along to the consumer as I said would happen long ago. As inflation reality hits the economy and the consumer, PMs and other hard assets will do their work as portfolio insurance. Home sales have done well - not as a result of a robust economy - but rather as people rush to put cash into hard assets. PMs could become part of this trend soon.

BTW, The Canadians have come to the rescue of the Northeast US the last several days with some electricity. Otherwise the Northeast US would have been "Blacked Out" for the last week. "Oh Canada!"

site steward

(08/08/2001; 19:53:17 MDT - Msg ID: 59234)

Eurosystem international reserves -- week ended August 3rd

Within the ECB and 12 member central banks the value held as gold and gold receivables declined EUR 24 million while the value held as foreign currency declined over 16 times that amount, down EUR 400 million.

Gold reserves dropped by EUR 24 million due to combined effects. The Bundesbank's issue of one million 1 Deutschemark commemorative coins involved the allocation of nearly one-and-a-half tonnes attributed to this week's book (8.5 tonnes allocated to this project were represented on the previous week's book). In addition to this, there was a one tonne sale by another central bank (likely the Dutch's fifth tonne sold since February 2000). Taken together, this leaves the consolidated Eurosystem with EUR 128.381 billion (12,546 tonnes) in gold.

By contrast, the EUR 400 million reduction of the Eurosystem's foreign currency during the past week (as mentioned above) leaves the net position in foreign paper valued at EUR 273.7 billion.

The next mark-to-market revaluation of these gold and foreign currency assets will occur September 28th.

R

Black Blade

(08/08/2001; 20:02:54 MDT - Msg ID: 59235)

New York Declares Power Emergency

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010807/ts/utilities_newyork_heatwave_dc_1.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - On the hottest day of the year, New York urged residents to conserve electricity amid warnings that soaring demand and problems at a few local power plants had cut deeply into the grid's available power supplies. Millions of New York City workers were told over their office public address systems that the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO), which manages the New York power system, had declared an energy emergency and Consolidated Edison Inc., the city's main electric utility, called for power load reductions until 7 p.m. Eastern Time.

Although it is not the first energy emergency for the Big Apple, it is the first time the NYISO has activated a new emergency demand reduction program in New York City that calls on major businesses and building managers to voluntarily throttle back their power usage. ``With the entire Northeast setting new power demand records, we are being proactive in calling on the emergency demand reduction program now,'' NYISO spokesman Steve Sullivan told Reuters.

Black Blade: Although this energy crisis isn't just oil, it is more pervasive, slowly building momentum and very long term (The Slow Burn). We cannot rely on the ("OPEC of the north") to save our bacon each time there's a crisis. This energy crisis will continue to build in the face of growing demand and the "Ostrich Syndrome."

Black Blade

(08/08/2001; 20:14:51 MDT - Msg ID: 59236)

Cash Keeps Surging Out of Stock Funds

http://www.thestreet.com/funds/fundjunkie/1511307.html
Snippit:

As stock prices stumble, it seems buy-and-hold types are neither buying nor holding. One of the fund industry's oldest rules is that cash flows to funds tend to follow performance. So with the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite and the average big-cap growth fund down 16%, 44% and 31% over the past year, it's no surprise that flows have gone south. But the scale of their drop has become dramatic. Redemptions from stock funds outpaced investments by some $11 billion in July, when the S&P 500 fell 6%, according to preliminary estimates released Monday from liquidity tracker TrimTabs.com. If these estimates are accurate, July will be the third month of net outflows for stock funds this year. There were no such months in 1999 or 2000 and just one in 1998.

Black Blade: I remember old Ross Perot saying something about a "Great Sucking Sound." Instead of NAFTA, it is the sound of cash sucked out of stocks.

Max Rabbitz

(08/08/2001; 20:26:31 MDT - Msg ID: 59237)

Rich Powell and the Petition

Not everyone is comfortable revealing their home address on a petition. With the history of our government in gold confiscation and manipulation you've got to have a secure hiding spot and/or a large gauge shot-gun to risk it. I considered withdrawing my name. But hey, there comes a time....if it's just a commodity what's the problem with answering a few simple questions. I accept TG's analysis that "our gold" is political gold for the defense of U.S. currency in foreign trade and I expect the gold has already been committed in all but deed. Nevertheless, I think the system was designed by and for the bankers and left the American taxpayer holding the bag.

Cavan Man

(08/08/2001; 20:53:02 MDT - Msg ID: 59238)

site steward (ho hum)

Randy,

Where do you suppose the EUR 400mm went? How are these sorts of transactions effected? Thanks...CM

Cavan Man

(08/08/2001; 20:55:36 MDT - Msg ID: 59239)

Black Blade

I grew up in NY in the 60's and blackouts were common then. I suppose the difference now is we are far behind the curve in an environment that requires ever so much more energy? This fact in conjunction with your, "the rest of the story"?

site steward

(08/08/2001; 21:02:11 MDT - Msg ID: 59240)

To Max Rabbitz

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/320017/default.htmlMax Rabbitz says, ---"these reserves can only be turned into multiple quantities of money by the wonder of fractional reserve banking and then only if someone borrows. Yet the "Beige book" today said the demand for loans was slack. Does this Fed action thus only increase the potential for money inflation?"----

Depending upon the penchant for public or private borrowing, at a minimum the Fed additions maintain the existing potential for money inflation, or at most, they can increase the level of that potential inflation. It really depends upon whether the Fed's operations are merely to offset any given drawdown in existing reserves, or whether they are injecting what we may call 'surplus reserves' above and beyond the reserve requirement. As far as 'offsets' go, might "big money" simply be pulling funds out of the U.S. banking system???

You also asked, ---"was it you who defined money as an abstract unit of value? I like it. Fits the digital age. Sometimes I think people like to have it both ways. They want to be able to earn interest on an asset yet have it a stable wealth value. But with all honesty you can only earn real interest on something that you put at risk. The more risk the more interest. And anything put at risk will vary in value according to the winds of fate."---

Nice thoughts there, but my lips are sealed against elaboration! You can read a mid-portion of a larger presentation if you click on the achive URL given above. Then scroll down to this post where I compared and contrasted money as a flexible unit of "manpower" against as such things as scientifically defined "horsepower" and also concepts of ownership. Best of all, its a SHORT commentary!

Have a look for the following within the link above:

Randy (@ The Tower) (07/03/01; msg#: 57382)

[[[and if you liked that one, you may be interested in another short one posted a week earlier:
Randy (@ The Tower) (06/28/01; msg#: 57115)
and see also TrailGuide's response:
Trail Guide (06/29/01; msg#: 57160)]]]

R

Black Blade

(08/08/2001; 21:55:37 MDT - Msg ID: 59241)

RE: Cavan Man - Blackouts and More

There have always been infrastructure problems on the east coast. The energy grid was in various states of disrepair even then. Now the grid is just older and still in various states of disrepair with growing demand. Add some inclement weather, an occasional coronal mass ejection, and the occasional squirrel fried in a transformer, - then there are the resulting blackouts. I was back east (Rhode Island) when the lights went out in 1967. The whole east coast went dark. I think that there was even a movie made about it. There was also a boost in the population 9 months later. The energy crisis this time, aside from the same old reasons, includes a few more fundamental reasons such as demand growing faster than supply - mostly due to the advances of the "New Economy," NIMBY, and rabid environmentalism. All of this results in higher energy costs that are eventually either passed on to you and me - inflation, or absorbed by business - squeezing profit margins and tanking the stock market resulting in a reversal of the "wealth effect." Either way, stocking up on some portfolio insurance can't hurt while prices are low, and stocking up on a few nonperishable goods as common sense family security insurance. Hoarding? - Just common sense. It's "The Ant vs. the Grasshopper" mentality - or as many here would say - personal responsibility. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(08/08/2001; 23:09:49 MDT - Msg ID: 59242)

Asia Tonight!

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asian Markets are getting thoroughly slaughtered tonight! No one is being spared. This could wash over into tomorrow's trading unless the Working Groups on Financial Markets pull out all the stops and start buying index futures. Looks really ugly!

MO VER MEG

(08/08/2001; 23:43:11 MDT - Msg ID: 59243)

Black Blade

How was the Sturgis Rally? I will try to meet you there next year.

I made the trip to Casper last month - interesting coal/oil country. Traveling west out of Newcastle (through True Oil country) was very interesting. Thunder Basin Coal was impressive.

Just letting you know, I listen to what you have to say.

Thanks,

MOVERMEG

Black Blade

(08/09/2001; 00:45:58 MDT - Msg ID: 59244)

RE: MO VER MEG

Good to see you here!

Sturgis was fun, however, the real action is all around the region as thousands of bikers troll around various towns. I passed through Newcastle this morning on my way to Sundance and then Hullet (sp?), Wyoming for the "Ham and Jam." I got back this afternoon. I took my spare laptop as you could tell. I stayed at Keystone, SD Best Western with my Grasshopper friends from Kalifornia. They all seem a bit concerned about the current employment situation in tech as some work in that industry and a good friend's wife was laid off last Friday (she still made Sturgis though - that's dedication!). They think that the Energy and Ute Barrons are ripping them off, yet when pressed they admit to the Grasshopper ideals that led to the energy crisis. They are a good case study in human nature. If I get off early tomorrow I may catch up with them at the Custer - Bighorn Battlefield in the afternoon. I also made it to the Mount Rushmore lighting ceremony, It does tug at one's patriotic heart-strings, however, the pesentation is dripping with political correctness that detracts from the intended message. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Golden Dreams All!
View Yesterday's Discussion.

Black Blade

(08/09/2001; 00:58:29 MDT - Msg ID: 59245)

Asian Markets Getting Slaughtered!!!

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Nikkei plummets well below 12,000! This looks like a market crash! All Asia in turmoil tonight. They can't sell fast enough. Could carry over to Europe and the US today. Depends how the Working Groups on Financial Markets respond before the open. Perhaps they will buy heavy into index futures to stave off a market collapse.

ski

(08/09/2001; 01:06:21 MDT - Msg ID: 59246)

Points to Ponder

BR549 #59220

....."With current gold mining costs around $290 and current spot around $268, how far away is the "long haul""?

More than anything else, it depends on the size of the current stockpiles. Uranium is an excellent example. Large stockpiles were in part the result of high uranium prices. When the uranium price finally collapsed below the cost of production, it took about 13 years or so to use up the supply. Personally, I am not nearly as excited about gold as I am for silver due to the fact that the world just keeps accumulating more all the time as it is not consumed or otherwise lost. Also, because gold was ABOVE its cost of production for so long, there was a gang of exploration and discovery done .... which is now waiting in the gold pipeline. I've been to the some of the trade shows and it seems that EVERYONE has a great gold project that is waiting for higher prices.
(Generally, not so with silver and uranium.)

When a commodity is below its cost of production for YEARS, new exploration and project development almost stops. Don't get me entirely wrong. I do like the supply and demand picture for gold as it clearly suggests that Au must go higher at some point. But here is the question for any investor ..... Would you rather own a $4 stock that only moved up to $6 or a $100 dollar stock that moved all the way up to $120? As basic as this question is, some don't get it. The $4 stock went up 50% and the other stock only gained 20%. So what is the moral of the story? The moral is that it is the PERCENTAGE MOVE THAT IS IMPORTANT. This explains my greater interest in silver. It will undoubtedly go up by a higher percentage.

......................

In my own unofficial pole, it seems like the current silver dip is doing a good job of shaking the confidence of many. Odd thing here .... If you take a look at many different charts from all periods and places in history, you quite often see a significant dip just before a major bull market begins. This phenomenon is more common than you would think. My hope here is that this is what is currently happening in silver.

.....................

In my state, you do not have to pay any state sales tax on gold bullion purchases but you do have to pay sales tax on silver purchases under $1,000. I often find myself with a little less than the 1K. When that happens, I give someone a little sales pitch on silver and show them a couple of silver rounds. I never thought of myself as a very good salesman but, I have never been turned down with this approach. They are usually grateful and quite facinated with the shiny stuff.

Netking

(08/09/2001; 02:47:18 MDT - Msg ID: 59247)

Canuck / Tree in the Forest / Rich. etc - Ag

Canuck > Yes the 'disinformation' is abundant, to the point where it seems only two camps exist; the silver 'to the moon' camp and the 'silver-is dead' camp. There seems to be no middle ground.

Netking > I am unashamedly in the former camp Sir Canuck. I've studied & studied this market for a while now. I have read whatever I can get my hands on. What I don't know I've attempted to try & find out or have E mailed people that know. There is still so much to learn & know, but I know enough that silver "will have it's day in the sun" . . . soon.

Canuck > The fact that silver coinage stopped in 1967/68? seems to explain to me, at least to a degree, why inventories have plummeted. Now ask 50 people in 'the know' about silver use in photography and you get 25 'camp 1' answers and 25 'camp 2' two answers.

Netking > I believe at this time traditional photography has shown no "significant" demand run off of Ag. The silver bears suggested the digital camera would kill film in 2 years . . . didn't happen. Sure it will ease off over time but other new uses (IMO) will more than make up for loss of demand in this area. China the biggest photography market appears to be cooking along. Any weakening in other industrial use at this time would also it would appear to be more than offset by cut backs in mine production currently.

Canuck > I am getting a little worried. I accumulated a modest stash of gold pre-Y2K and since a modest stash of silver. I think I am more comfortable with the gold at this moment. Silver does seem more 'commodity' based, yes? I am getting a little worried about my overall exposure to both. At first guess I am probably close to 50% exposed in terms of total net worth in gold and silver. 'Missed opportunities grow very large. Thoughts/advice? Canuck.

Netking > Depending on the size of your holding in ounces & dollar terms & also the percentage size of it as measured against your family net worth . . . it may be worth looking at investing in a consultancy appointment with Dave Morgan, Ted Butler or our own host Michael J. Kosares/USAGOLD (I don't know if all these guys currently do individual consultancy or what the arrangements would be, it was just a thought). The other thing is assuming your family & financial needs are catered for cashflow wise where else would one invest in the current global markets . . . . property, USD denominated investments, shares . . .no? PM's stands out with "everthing to gain in the days ahead and very little down side" IMO. At the end of the though you gotta have peace about what you're doing, otherwise make some adjustments. There are some excellent articles with a ton of insight at the next two links, I would personally suggest to anybody to read 'em all & study the facts and arguments:
http://www.investmentrarities.com/weeklycommentary.html
http://www.silver-investor.com/archive.htm
and this interview from earlier this year. http://www.investmentrarities.com/01-15-01.html
------------------------------------------------------------
R Powell > I believe the Comex may be the last place users of physical silver will buy. When they are forced to take delivery there (when their usual sellers can not fill their orders) the world may wake up to the shortage situation.

Netking > Sir Rich. I agree totally. Comex may well be the gauge by which we can measure the last physical stockpile disappear. Intresting about the Hunt Bro's, they paid I believe up to $14/Oz before the squeeze . . . that pushed up the POS to over $50/Oz. (Double+ for todays $) So they paid up to a bargain price of $28/Oz(2001 $) when world & USA supply was much more than today . . . . now that's food for thought.
------------------------------------------------------------
Tree in the Forest(59232)> For me the issue is not whether silver will fly. I'll take the three wise men's word on that. It's where will it go before it takes off that's bothering me.

Netking > Agree Sir TIF, it WILL fly, this baby will run on "nitro" when it moves. As TB said in a recent article (Refer link: http://www.gloomdoom.com/07-31-01.html ) it's not a case of placing a date on "it" in terms of when, but rather knowing how & what. We do know largely "how" and we do also largely know "what" will happen. If silver is at 5,000 year inflation adjusted lows (and it is). If silver's independently surved world (known) inventory has largely run out (and they are, nobody can prove otherwise). If demand for silver is increasing each year (and it is). If supply cannot keep up with that demand (and it can't). If new uses & applications for silver keep coming up (eg power line technology & batter technology for just two of many that will use much) indicate silver will be in it's 12th, 13th 14th . . . etc year of deficit . . . . then I say to myself "use this time of aberration of price as a door of opportunity to accumulate physical silver (and gold).
------------------------------------------------------------
Randy - You quoted that excellent statement from Sir Canuck, "It seems only two camps exist; the silver 'to the moon' camp and the 'silver-is dead' camp."
Netking > Randy? . . . . so which camp you in brother?

regards all - Netking.

wolf

(08/09/2001; 03:33:48 MDT - Msg ID: 59248)

Petition give it your support

Clarify US. Policy on Gold and Gold Accounting

Signatures so far : ONLY 1.338

Goal : 10.000

Deadline : ongoing .........

http: www.thepetitionsite.com/takeaction/365824991

miner49er

(08/09/2001; 05:31:06 MDT - Msg ID: 59249)

Argentina - Pay taxes with bonds

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010808/n08325255.htmlGood morning all,

Been a while, but do check in on occasion... Haven't had time to think about this (still groggy, not having had a cup of coffee, yet...). Heard briefly about it last night, and searched around all my usual financial news areas for some analysis, but came up with absolutely nothing.

Anyone got any thoughts about this?

Most cordially,
miner49er

Canuck

(08/09/2001; 05:42:36 MDT - Msg ID: 59250)

@ Netking and others

Thanks for your silver posts.

My office deals with a chain of photography stores in Ottawa. I once asked this cagey misery looking dude about
silver as an investment. It indeed hit a nerve. He immediately began frothing about the Hunt scandel and how much money he had lost in the early 80's. He cited sales of digital cameras and the accelerating recycling of the silver solution used for film processing.

He said silver use was plummeting in the photography world and was 'dead' and also said buy gold when 'T.S.H.T.F.'

He was definitely of Camp 2.

I saw ( a year or so ago) a chart on the DOW/POS ratio; it is startling. I forget the exact numbers, perhaps in the order of 50:1 in 1980 and 2,500:1 today. Definitely Camp 1 material. I also like the 'inflation adjusted' numbers for silver. Amazing how silver is 'undervalued'.

Where am I? Well I go both ways....er...what I mean to say is I like the Camp 1 numbers; they seem way out of whack.
In reference to the 'investment counselling' remark, I have a financial advisor, you know diversication, no more than 5-10% precial metals, the long haul blah, blah, blah. My problem at age 41, is I started too late in the 'savings program', long shots are required.

The 10, 20, 50, 100+ 'bagger' stories are very appealing, yes? I see very little downside as I am sure most of us feel. What's that ancient 16:1 POG/POS ratio? Let's see,
a 25 bagger in gold makes the number 6,750POG/421POS. A 25 bagger in silver makes the number 1,680POG/105POS. Let's go mental here with FOA's $30,000 gold with the 16:1; $30,000POG/1075POS.

Wicked!! I'll buy............Argentina!!

Black Blade

(08/09/2001; 06:06:07 MDT - Msg ID: 59251)

Index Futures to the Rescue

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
Index futures are off the lows as apparently "someone" is buying heavy positions. I hear the talking heads and Pied Pipers are spinning the "We found a bottom" talk once again. Can they navigate the SS Titanic through these icebergs today? We will see.

Cavan Man

(08/09/2001; 06:15:49 MDT - Msg ID: 59252)

Hello Canuck

I am sitting here enjoying a cup of tea as I prepare to go outside and do battle with our famous midwestern humidity. I enjoy your posts very much and your last one prompted me to chime in. I have been thinking about portfolio allocation these last few days and want to say to you that I am in the same camp. I am about the same age and, like you, learned the wisdom of saving and investing late in life (spent way too much time in the taverns chasing the skirts). I don't know a lot about silver but I have studied gold intensely over the last two years. I have quite literally been reading and thinking gold (gold fever?)all that time. I have read every fact, every opinion, every analysis, every economic philosophy and every bit of nit wittery the www has had to offer. IMHO, at this time, a person should disregard that old "portfolio allocation wisdom" and own as much gold as is understandable. Now is the time to own gold. Now is the time for the big play on gold. I do not see any other investments that provide the value and the low risk/high reward ratio that gold has to offer. Why here, even our own real estat market has become "Son of Nasduck". If you are like me, build a bridge to a new lifstyle. Good luck...CM

Belgian

(08/09/2001; 06:18:02 MDT - Msg ID: 59253)

@ Ski

Sir, allow me to reflect on your post #59246 and please note that I've no intention to correct your vieuws, with these reflexions. Thanks

1/ Uranium is a mining by-product in many cases. South Africa had plenty of it (Chemwess).
2/ The percentage gain story, changes dramatically, when the price drops to 50% of your average accumulation price.
3/ The fact that here in europ we pay 25% VAT on silver and 0% VAT on Gold is "VERY" significant to me ! This does make a fundamental difference between an industrial commodity (silver) and the universal store of wealth (gold).

4/ The most important aspect about Gold at this particular moment in its history (past 30 years) is that there exists a very high probability that a *Big Change* is on the horizon ! We (all) make the same mistake, over and over again. As to drive, with constantly looking into the rear glasses...kaboom...it is different now ...too late !
With this, I am "NOT" suggesting that silver is dead ! I simply don't know ! And I do agree that 4$/ounce is a give away (abnormal) price, the more that global re-(hyper)inflation, "inevitably", is the next decor for expansion.

This leaves us only to change ideas about the quality of choice between gold and silver-accumulation (physical). They will both have their day, but wich one will outperform and with how much. What " WILL BE " the differences between both ? Rather than what *were* the differences !
I prefer to generate paper with other instruments (stocks) and store eventual profits in Gold, physical Gold (for ever). Optically more expensive, perhaps because it is (and always was),intrinsically more valuable ?

Suggestion : go to www.bis.org and type "gold" into the searcher and see with your own eyes, what is evolving.

For reasons that the future is so unpredictable, Gold is (imvho) in pole position for the new "valuation" era.
Speculating on a procentual better fiat-return for silver is believing that no dramatical changes will occur, isn't it ? Any other vieuws, that I have overlooked ?

Max Rabbitz

(08/09/2001; 07:44:46 MDT - Msg ID: 59254)

Will the Feds stop selling TIPS? Are they worried about something?

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Rate%20of%20Return&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_ratetop&refer=ratetop&T=markets_frontsummary_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_ratetop&bt2=blk∣dle=ad_frame2_ratetop&s=AO3GxnRYxSW5mbGF0 "Expectations the securities will be in short supply have also stoked the market for them in recent weeks.

U.S. Treasury inflation-linked debt issuance has totaled $135 billion, or less than 5 percent of the government's $3 trillion in interest-bearing, marketable debt.

A Wall Street panel in May advised the Treasury to stop selling inflation-indexed debt, saying the program has cost the government an extra $1.5 billion in interest."

P.S. Thanks for the links Randy.

CoBra(too)

(08/09/2001; 08:10:47 MDT - Msg ID: 59255)

Up to 15 People killed and another 85 injured in Jerusalem,

According to police sources.

Another suicide bombing in a Jerusalem Pizzeria - could well trigger off heavy retaliation by the Sharon government, escalating to outright war?

The early POG spike is telling, no? - though I personally would feel the fundamentals for a rising POG are sound enough and don't really need a ME war, nor do I.

cb2

Rockgrabber

(08/09/2001; 08:30:19 MDT - Msg ID: 59256)

Bomb Kills 19 in Israel

http://cnn.com/2001/WORLD/meast/08/09/mideast/index.html Is Israel ready to retaliate this time for this one? I bet so.

Belgian

(08/09/2001; 08:56:50 MDT - Msg ID: 59257)

270,65 $

POG strength with easing/unchanged POO : with the recent Israel bombing, enhancing a trend, or only just an emotional insignificant hiccup ? POG remains well contained and mini-move is disciplined. Significant altough, against clear European + US evidence of economic contraction (defla). No indications from mining. Already account a POG=300$.
War is another mice-step closer today. Evolving to half-way presidential cycle (theory). POG 271,15 + Dow in search for the 10.000 psychological dam. This looks nice (?)

Saxulum^

(08/09/2001; 09:22:40 MDT - Msg ID: 59258)

Belgian (59253)

Belgian (59253)
---3/ The fact that here in europ we pay 25% VAT on silver and 0% VAT on Gold is "VERY"
significant to me ! This does make a fundamental difference between an industrial
commodity (silver) and the universal store of wealth (gold).---

Dear Sir, or should I say neighbour :-)
Just in case you are not familiar with the following:
Silver can be bought overhere officially with 0% VAT
in the form of bulk old coins (ca 72% silver content?).
Don't know if MK is aware of that either, so check it out�
If preferred, it than can be easily melted into "broodjes"
And while I'm here, a great 'Thank You' for sharing
all of your ponderings and research. Very helpfull!

miner49er

(08/09/2001; 09:37:06 MDT - Msg ID: 59259)

Winston Smith may be out of a job.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/silly/story/0,10821,534220,00.htmlsnippits:

Robot reporter 'to write news in future'

"...within a few years this newspaper could be written not by human journalists but by a piece of software trained to pluck text off the news wires and rearrange the words into punchy stories. "

"The scientists told the American Association of Artificial Intelligence last week that the program [me: named "Author," i.e., the software being discussed here] could be married to systems that are already capable of extracting information from text.

This, they claim, would make it possible for Author to scan news wires or government papers for the bare bones of a story."

and lastly:

"Journalists need not start worrying about their jobs just yet. The developers said that Author still lacks one fundamental skill: the ability to tell fact from fiction."

me: seems like this would make it a perfect candidate to start today...

(08/09/2001; 09:45:44 MDT - Msg ID: 59260)

Observations of an amateur chartist

Listening to some yo-ho on CNBC talking about a bottoming economy, and how we should get fully invested now in stocks. I have to question the logic in this. I started trading the junior resource market in 1996, when it went into its parabolic run to the sky. I saw a lot of people make money, but I saw more lose in the end. As that market came down there were many times that people said that the bottom is in and there is little downside risk, only to watch the market careen lower to what a year or two earlier would have seemed obscene levels. And it's still not over today. Most companies switched to a dot-com venture and were blown out of the water in the tech wreck.

Now I realize that I am comparing apples and oranges when I compare the chart of the Nasdaq to the VSE run of 96, but I believe there is a common thread. A chart ultimately measures human emotions, and when a market goes through parabola, this is usually indicative of a massive misallocation of capital...one that takes longer, and with more pain than anyone thinks possible to work out.

Most participants that I knew lost their play or 'mad' money in 1996-7. Sure some lost their fortunes, but I would say that was not the rule. The problem with the Nasdaq bubble is that people lost their 'serious' capital. The capital that takes years, even a lifetime to acquire. That money is living in money heaven and it isn't coming back any time soon. People whom a year or two before would never have dreamed of buying a stock with a PE of 350, or even 35 for that matter were gobbling up the Nasdaq leaders with absolute abandon. Just like people lost their love of resource stocks after the bubble burst on the VSE, I think it will be a long time before people return the broader market with mass conviction. And if this is the case, we are a long way of from a bottom in the Nasdaq.

CoBra(too)

(08/09/2001; 09:48:44 MDT - Msg ID: 59261)

@ Miner 49er

Great Story - or "turn" fact to fiction, which may even come closer to today's mainstream media spin bias.

... good to see you around - best cb2

dlewis

(08/09/2001; 10:00:44 MDT - Msg ID: 59262)

A Polemic on the New Productivity Paradigm

http://www.chaos-onomics.com/kuhn.htmJust some food for thought.

Using Greenspan's words, the essay linked here takes a look back at the productivity miracle as it unfolded within the framework of Thomas Kuhn's "Struture of Scientific Revolutions".

Shermag

(08/09/2001; 10:02:22 MDT - Msg ID: 59263)

Miner, Argentine bonds for taxes

First, a question comes to mind that the article did not address: At what value will the bonds be accepted, at book value or market value? There is a large difference at this time.

Now my comment. This is a positive in that it reduces the need for cash, and retires some government debt, although it seems to me to be only a mild improvement. I would expect that most bonds would be either tied up in pension funds or held by parties not owing significant taxes. As such, there seems to be an effort to spin something more out of this than is justified.

Shermag

dlewis

(08/09/2001; 10:02:56 MDT - Msg ID: 59264)

A Polemic on the New Productivity Paradigm

BR549

(08/09/2001; 10:15:16 MDT - Msg ID: 59265)

Points to Ponder

I notice that silver is up a penny and gold is up $2.70 this morning. In this case, I'll have the gold. I know what you are speaking of is in the longer term and I think you are assuming market prices being based upon unfettered supply & demand. I own both physical gold and physical silver. I prefer the gold but am greedy enough to accumulate more silver in a heartbeat if I felt that its appreciation would be at a higher percentage rate.

If the assumption that gold production costs are underwater to current market price, then indeed supply should become a factor in the future as factors of production and mines fail. Forward selling cannot save them.

If you take gold's natural price fluctuations out and focus on factors such as the Fed "lending" stored reserves to bullion banks, these banks in turn leasing their physical supplies, buyers contracting to replace this physical at a later date then defaulting, and the Fed reclassifying its definition of storage (deep storage gold), then you have a different picture of actual gold supply. The Treasury numbers of 8,167 tonnes of stored gold have not fluctuated while all of this has been going on. The 1995 minutes of the FOMC brought some interesting questions to mind. Fed minutes of FOMC meetings are on a five year lag and The Freedom of Information Act does not pertain to their censored transcripts so we don't have a clue of what is going on now. IMHO FOMC meetings need to be broadcast live, but that is a different topic.

By the way, I like your other rules for investing also but unfortunately, I don't get involved with the equity market. I am proud to say I didn't lose a dime in my 401K this year. But I didn't make much money in PM's either. Of course, given there is "no inflation", (opportunity capital gains aside) I didn't lose any money in the "duck" either. (Ha!).

If the wheels fall off of the economy, would you prefer silver over gold for barter? And once again, do you factor in manipulation into you decisions such as what the Hunt's tried to do many years ago and what the Fed denies they are doing now?

Regards from Cornfield County.

site steward

(08/09/2001; 10:16:48 MDT - Msg ID: 59266)

miner49er, thanks for the link. This is classic!

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010808/n08325255.htmlBUENOS AIRES, Argentina, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Argentine shares closed higher for the second consecutive session on Wednesday, rising 3.88 percent in heavy volume on investor optimism after Economy Minister Domingo Cavallo's announcement late Tuesday that bonds could be used to pay taxes --------

This evolution of a new usage value for a financial instrument may stem future selling pressure by the locals, and keeps the game a lively one.

Comments for all:

Similar to U.S. history where our gold contracts (which is what dollars 'technically' were prior to 1971) fell out of confidence which led to a redemption run and ultimately, default. The dollar game, no longer technically a gold contract, was kept lively because the fallback usage for these contracts was in the function as money -- for paying taxes or general commerce.

Now, here's the million dollar question (which has been posed here before): What usage value will modern-day gold contracts and derivatives have to fall back on if they again fall into a confidence crisis/run/default?

Put another way, what meaningful authority will step forward offering to accept payment with gold derivatives that have lost all prospects of physical attachment? This is how, in a time of stress for the gold market, there could be a selloff of derivative positions (where current price discovery occurs a la the NY COMEX) thereby driving the quoted prices down even as physical tightness drives up to ever higher levels the premium (and total price) on metal for delivery.

Cavan Man

(08/09/2001; 10:24:45 MDT - Msg ID: 59267)

site steward

That's the spirit!

Gold Trail Update

(08/09/2001; 10:27:20 MDT - Msg ID: 59268)

The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated

The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.

(08/09/2001; 10:30:39 MDT - Msg ID: 59269)

(No Subject)

Gold up $4.5...dollar index down a full point. Gotta love that action.

Max Rabbitz

(08/09/2001; 10:36:17 MDT - Msg ID: 59270)

Time for a little Rare Swedish Gold

Clink Clink

Leigh

(08/09/2001; 10:38:36 MDT - Msg ID: 59271)

Trail Guide

Trail Guide, after reading this latest Trail Message...I think I'd rather buy gold than re-roof the house!

Gold Trail Update

(08/09/2001; 10:39:27 MDT - Msg ID: 59272)

The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated

The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.

Canuck

(08/09/2001; 10:47:57 MDT - Msg ID: 59273)

@ Cavan Man

"...taverns and chasing skirts...". You dog!!

Yes, 10 or 15 years ago this seemed to be the correct
'investment'! Now my eyes are the only part that still chases....until the wife interjects with the old 'staring' monologue.

Now I'm older and wiser(?).

Nice hop to the POG dog today, hope it sticks. I am proud to say I am in the 'correct camp' today.

Good luck with the 'skirts' and your investments C.M.

Canuck.

site steward

(08/09/2001; 10:51:08 MDT - Msg ID: 59274)

While funds market trades at FOMC target, Fed adds reserves

Following yesterday's permanent add of $2.13 billion through the outright purchase of Treasury bills, the Fed today replaced yesterday's temporary $4.245 billion add (overnight repos) with yet another, larger round of overnight RPs. Today's value was $5.85 billion. This came on top of yet another $2 billion added earlier this morning via 28-day repurchase agreeements.

Elsewhere as relates more directly to gold, Reuters reported: ----COMEX gold enjoyed early speculator interest Thursday, rising to its loftiest price in nearly three weeks as the euro advanced to a 12-week high, making dollar-priced precious metals cheaper for Europeans. ... Europe's single currency rose to $0.8877, its highest since May 17, as the U.S. greenback sulked after Wednesday's Beige Book survey from the U.S. Federal Reserve, which provided little reason for optimism about a fast turnaround in the moribund U.S. economy.-----

Are our European friends prepared to seize this opportunity of bargain shopping to bolster their gold portfolios? For surely, when gold's value corrects in accordance to its physical supply/demand fundamentals, its price shall rise significantly in terms of ALL currencies, though more in some (dollar) than in others. Buy cheap, buy now.

Today, among others, is a good day to buy gold. Give Centennial a call, toll free. The office is open.

Gandalf the White

(08/09/2001; 11:01:31 MDT - Msg ID: 59275)

The FOG is lifting with your clear "writings"

http://www.usagold.com/goldTrail/default.htmlFOA (08/09/01; 10:27:19MT - usagold.com msg#93)
"everything to do with a gold bull market"
====
Thank you again for the "corrections" of the Media slants.
Thinking about what is said is difficult for most Sheeple.
The Hobbits all "favor" their one ounce 0.9999 INSURANCE piece.
<;-)

Tommy P

(08/09/2001; 11:03:00 MDT - Msg ID: 59276)

More news from GATA

From: GATAComm@a...
Date: Thu Aug 9, 2001 1:52 pm
Subject: More GATA gains on the publicity front; Murphy on radio show today

Thursday, August 9, 2001

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

As a result of the latest GATA Business Wire press
release, I had lunch today with one of the most
impressive reporters I have ever encountered. It so
happens that he works for one of the most prestigious
and financially connected organizations in the world.

And, in perhaps in in one of the most wonderful of
coincidences, he is a friend of Adam Aljewicz of
Dow Jones Newswires, who has done two stories
on GATA out of Johannesburg, South Africa.

Adam was most impressive at the GATA African Gold
Summit in Durban, South Africa, on May 10, 2001. He,
Reg Howe, and I and others, such as James Turk, had
the opportunity to discuss much over dinner.

What will come out of this lunch, who knows? But it is
obvious that GATA's "enveloping horn" strategy is
working.

Meanwhile, I feel most privileged to be a guest today
on the Stan Solomon Show, "positively pro-life, pro-liberty,
anti-globalist, and for the people, RIGHT from the heart
of America." Stan serves up important topics for discussion,
rapid-fire commentary pulling no punches, and an array of
intriguing and informative guests. Stan keeps a large and
loyal audience coming back for more.

The show airs Monday-Friday from 3-6 p.m. Central
Time on WPZZ 95.9FM, NewzzTalk96, in Indianapolis,
Indiana. If you can't pick up the radio signal, you can
listen to the show online at www.stansolomon.com.

(Time zone guide: 3-6 p.m. central is 4-7 p.m. eastern,
2-5 p.m. mountain, and 1-4 p.m. Pacific.)

BILL MURPHY, Chairman
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

escapethematrix

(08/09/2001; 11:10:47 MDT - Msg ID: 59277)

The start of a new trend??

Gold- up 5.20

Euro up through .89

Dollar- down 1.05

Things seem to be heating up....
Thanks for the hike TG...
Excellent thoughts as usual...

CoBra(too)

(08/09/2001; 11:27:03 MDT - Msg ID: 59278)

Another nice Snippet on the SM's

dug out by the Daily Reckoning Team:

"Broken promises, unfulfilled expectations," writes Mark Rostenko, editor of the Sovereign Strategist. "Rate cuts don't work, earnings ain't getting better, the Fed is still full of crap and propoganda, why [would anyone] buy?"

"In 1929 the S&P 500 peaked at 21 times earnings," points out Mr. Grantham. "In 1965 it peaked at 21 times. Not so long ago it peaked at 33, and is now somewhere around 26...

"[Does anyone] really think," he continues, "we're on the edge of the next bull market when the p/e of the S&P is still higher than its pre-'29 crash?"

Meanwhile the US$ takes a beating and POG has the best spike since May - Times a'changing, true? cb2

site steward

(08/09/2001; 11:42:16 MDT - Msg ID: 59279)

Shermag asks about Argentine bonds for taxes

"At what value will the bonds be accepted, at book value or market value?"

Great question. Working with the few details we've been given, let's think this through. I'll offer some points that come immediately to mind.

If bonds are accepted at market value, nothing is really gained in the eyes of the bond holder except that he or she avoids the normal (extra) step of selling the bond in exchange for the cash needed for tax payments. However, in a larger market sense, this may provide a marginal support for the bond prices as many are "redeemed" directly without giving the sellers added weight to outdo the buyers participating on the bond market.

Also in a larger sense, this use of bonds for payment strikes me as inflationary -- an increase to the "effective money" supply. (Apart from this scheme, bond holders needing tax payment money would first need to track down a buyer in order acquire, then use, his "conventional" money from within the conventional supply.)

Looking beyond, if a confidence crisis is at hand....

A perception of rising inflation rates raises the issue of exposure to interest rate risk for all bond holders. That is, as perceptions of future currency devaluations prevail, the bond holders become less willing to hold a bond over term unless compensated for the devaluing currency with higher interest rates -- yield -- on the bond upon its maturity. It is very real that the market value on a particular bond could fall from day to day (even as it draws nearer to maturity) simply because the marketplace feels the money will lose value faster than was their perception yesterday or the day before.

In such a scenario, to maintain confidence in the bonds by eliminating this degree of interest rate risk, it wouldn't be too surprising to see the government agree to accept their bonds prematurely as payment but at the full face value. Naturally, such a plan would be an emergency measure, and would likely be restricted to short-term and near-dated bonds only.

I hope this has been good food for thought to simply stimulate your own good thoughts and further consideration.

R

Horatio

(08/09/2001; 11:47:14 MDT - Msg ID: 59280)

Gold is Currency

I just saw on the tele on a financial news channel a statement "Gold is Currency"!"Its following the Euro".
This revelation is being discovered by the news media and reported as if they were the first to discover it.
I'll give them some credit ,in fact I don't care who takes credit ,just as Pres. Reagan said "you can get a lot accomplished when you don't worry about who gets the credit".
This is a major turnabout from the people that have been espousing the mantra that its only a commodity.They have known that to be a lie all along and now they have a purpose for thier new position.I wonder what that could be?

MarkeTalk

(08/09/2001; 11:54:23 MDT - Msg ID: 59281)

Gold and the Middle East

http://www.ddolan.com/update.htmlToday's news events are proving how important cycle turning points can be. August 6-7th was forecast to be a top in stocks and a secondary top in the U.S. Dollar. Who would have known that a suicide bomber would succeed in killing many people in Jerusalem this morning? There have been dozens of attempts but the Israeli police and army have intercepted the perpetrators--until today. The point I am trying to make is that things happen for a reason and they happen around cyclical events. In reaction, gold is up $5.50 per ounce and has now broken out above its resistance level. Next target is $290-295.

I believe that gold and oil prices will react when (not if) Israel retaliates for today's suicide bombing. Ariel Sharon made it clear after the disco bombing of one month ago that he would "take off the gloves" and go after these Palestinian terrorists, risking 200 Israeli soldiers in the process. You can imagine how many Palestinians will be killed if 200 Israeli soldiers are sacrificed. It's going to get ugly. You can stay in touch with events in Israel each day with David Dolan's website, which I have found to be one of the best and most concise websites on the Middle East situation.

miner49er

(08/09/2001; 12:59:29 MDT - Msg ID: 59282)

site steward #59266, Shermag #59263 re: #59249

Thank you gentlemen, for your input.

Shermag: ----------------------------

First, it seems that what you focus on indeed will be the part for public consumption. Pro-gov. media will emphasize certain benefits to be had (at least in concept) from the perspective of the typically finance/economics uninitiated public. Since such a relatively small amount of these securities actually reside in the individual hands of "parties not owing significant taxes," and a large part are likely in tax-deferred, tax-favored, or non-taxed funds/institutions, this could probably be just a catalyst for a good spin. Of course, if the scheme works (that is entices the big-fish holders of these instruments and their derivatives, to bid their price up), then whatever redemption takes place in lieu of cash for tax payments, means the payer relieves himself of his onerous obligation at a significant discount by using these now artificially high-valued bonds.

To circumambulate to the other side of this now..., that means the government ends up paying too much for its borrowing anyway, still has too much day at the end of the money -- still having to meet its obligations, and undoubtedly ends up increasing taxes, along with various devaluation techniques, thus cancelling out the advantage originally derived by the taxpayer.

Thus, it seems to me (and this is with my very-untrained, still groggy/foggy mind -- even though I've had two really superb cups of coffee now...) that this is another deal that attempts only to bail out traders by putting another "meaningful authority" out there who will obligate itself to accepting these instruments. This helps stem the out-of-control momentum of crashing derivative trades, and the imminent onset of the grand, to-be-feared "discontinuous event" (for the time being anyway...), but does little more than postpone the day-of-reckoning for the Argentine government, and nothing for the majority of Argentinians except put more burden on them.

Second, good point -- market or book -- it obviously will make a difference in the cost to Argentina, and the perception of value to the traders, but I think the main goal in this plan is simply to bring convergence back to spreads, and reduce the perceived risk of default in the mind of the financing world. Do you see more here? I'm not the expert by any stretch, I just try to get in on the discussion and hopefully grow from it...

There are undoubtedly larger holders of these instruments who are obligated to taxation by the Argentine government. This would make a difference obviously to them, but again, if the premise for this plan is to keep the world from a market "happening" more than a genuine plan to improve Argentina, then we should look to what it does to benefit world markets, more than what it does for Argentina.

Indeed there may be more in this than the spin makes apparent...

Randy: ----------------------------

I was going to say how unfortunate it was that you decided to rein in your commentary, and hoped that with a significant number of like-stated regrets, you would change your mind. Thankful I am that a little link has stirred the juices. Please keep it coming! Your input is exceedingly valuable to the forum. Untold creative thinking is inspired thereby, even if we don't post in response. The perspective is most welcomed and excellent.

I wish I had the time to focus on issues like this (as if time makes up for lack of knowledge), as it appears that a lot might be inferred by this action. First, Argentina, having been in close contact with US advisors, and then taking this action, tells me that there is certainly some US blessing on it. Therefore, it might be inferred that some shape-changed version of this may appear in our near future.

To pick up from above, it seems that the concerns of the world finance markets are foremost in the thinking behind this plan. Another advantage, perhaps to a scheme like this, is that unlike announcing a buy-back, tax payment is not always done at any particular time. A buy-back date does nothing but invite volatility (specs bidding up to the event, and dumping after), which invites further unprogrammed stress to derivative models, and costs Argentina more as well. Assuming they have a tax date, or dates like everyone else, there would be increased action at these times, but entities probably are always paying taxes of varying kinds.

Thus these exchanges would not all take place on any trumpeted date. This would, while still providing a reason to bid them up (new usage value), keep a bit of a lid on it by removing a potential peg; maybe even smooth things out a bit. Sort of keeps the game lively, as you say, but also keeps 'em guessing. Just a thought...

Given the scanty info we have about this deal, all this is mostly academic. But frankly, I love the discussion...

The $1,000,000 question you say that you've posited previously: "What usage value will modern-day gold contracts and derivatives have to fall back on if they again fall into a confidence crisis/run/default?"

Gold contracts to pay taxes...? Heck, why not...

Best regards,
miner

Also, CB2 - indeed you are right -- "turn" fits better...;-)

auspec

(08/09/2001; 13:37:24 MDT - Msg ID: 59283)

Cavan Man And Canuck

Saw you guys discussing the concept of standard "portfolio allocation wisdom" and thought you might enjoy the following excerpts out of Robert Kiyosaki's "Rich Dad Poor Dad":

".....playing it safe and going 'balanced' on your investment portfolio is not the way successful investors play the game. If you have little money and you want to be rich, you must first be 'focused' not 'balanced'. If you look at anyone successful, at the start they were not balanced. Balanced people go nowhere. They stay in one spot. To make progress you must first go unbalanced."
"Thomas Edison was not balanced. He was focused. Bill Gates was not balanced. He was focused. George Soros isfocused. Donald Trump is focused. George Patton did not take his tanks wide. He focused them and blew through the weak spots in the German line."
"If you have a desire of being rich, you must focus. Put a lot of your eggs in a few baskets. Do not do what most people do: put their few eggs in many baskets." END

This is a great book and has changed my viewpoint entirely as it relates to career advice for my college age sons. Most of us around here are pretty 'focused', no?
Regards,
auspec

Netking

(08/09/2001; 13:55:22 MDT - Msg ID: 59284)

MarkeTalk

MarkeTalk, I have read your posts with interest, they are the view of someone who's informed. Thanks - Netking

andrus sommerselg

(08/09/2001; 14:04:00 MDT - Msg ID: 59285)

Silver and Gold

Greetings to all,
Lately there was a lot of talk concerning silver which I have largely enjoyed. While I have found the silver 'crash alert' story amusing, the rest of fact based accounts were educational. I do own silver and gold as well and care not if they temporarily appear 'cheap'. It is all about perceptions and the abnormal valuations of our time. Things change, don't they?
Concerning the availability of silver bars; I have ordered 3x100oz bars in early spring and the fairly major supply company could only fill the delivery as 2x100oz and 2x50oz. The 50oz bars carry larger premium than the 100oz, yet I was apologized to and charged the 100oz bar price for both 50oz. (I do not know if this is normal. I assume after taking my order they have realized they are out. Lately I am into coins.) It was my first order after discovering the writings of Ted Butler. Also, I assume I am not the only one ordering after reading Butler. Every time I read his bits on silver I feel I need more and thus order more.
Today is a good day for gold. Though, when it moves I get the cold sweat and shakes. I fear what is coming, despite being loaded up on silver, gold and unhedged gold stocks. I wish no harm to others, yet ANOTHER is by all means right about what is coming. "Paper will burn." Well, it was always burning. Wasn't it? I am doing my best to spread his words, but people do not listen and at times I feel like I am a lunatic. I want to thank all the posters of this board and especially the host for the great posts. This site has become an oasis. My kind of place in a desert of "irrational exuberance".
Thanks and exuse for my rumbling.

Netking

(08/09/2001; 14:11:09 MDT - Msg ID: 59286)

Israel Prepares Massive Blow Against Palestinians

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,31209,00.htmlSnippit:

Rather than tolerate the continuation of random, spontaneous violence, the Sharon strategy will be to silence them entirely. It will require a massive military blow against the Palestinian political infrastructure. It will involve the decapitation of the Palestinian leadership and the exile or deaths of the political elite. Weapons caches will be sought and destroyed, communications facilities ruined. From Israel's standpoint, the Palestinian community must be isolated and controlled.

There is also a chance that Israel may apply this strategy to two other long-standing problems: the Syrian control of Lebanon and the potential Iraqi military threat against Israel . . . . watch this space

Cavan Man

(08/09/2001; 14:12:19 MDT - Msg ID: 59287)

auspec

I have read the book twice and have a copy on my desk. I met "the Stranger" awhile back and his advice was quite similar. BTW, "the Stranger" is much smarter than the average bear (eh boo boo?).

Cavan Man

(08/09/2001; 14:14:16 MDT - Msg ID: 59288)

Leigh

"Now is the time to stretch." Mike Kosares

I heartily concur and have done likewise. It's like buying your first home; always stretch and buy more than you think you can actually afford. Note; I said "first home".

Belgian

(08/09/2001; 14:14:53 MDT - Msg ID: 59289)

@ Saxulum

Dag beste buur. Thanks for the info. I'll consider it while on leave for 14 days of contemplation in plain nature.
Gone miss this Gold-University here. (Doei)

Cavan Man

(08/09/2001; 14:15:51 MDT - Msg ID: 59290)

Canuck

Didn't mean to convey the wrong impression to you. I simply believe in owning up to past misdeeds. I repent anew each day. Kind regards.....CM

CoBra(too)

(08/09/2001; 14:21:45 MDT - Msg ID: 59291)

@Re Auspec's Focus - re: Cm and Canuck -

As Gerald Loeb has put in his (in-)famous book of the late 60's "The Battle for Investment Survival": " Put all your eggs in one basket ... and focus on the basket".

Seems to serve as an answer to the eternal question of the chicken and egg as well - the basket came first ;>) -

Oh, hell, I'd better sign off ... . . . . . zzz bbb zooo...

auspec

(08/09/2001; 14:45:14 MDT - Msg ID: 59292)

Belgian

Enjoy your introspective time. You may want to take a few coins with just in case you become forlorn.
Regards,
A real basket case

CoBra(too)

(08/09/2001; 15:03:26 MDT - Msg ID: 59293)

@ Belgian -

Het hat niet, leve jong, you cant just leave for two weeks and enjoy nature - there's lots of work for you to do!

... Though, as a second thought, you might have earned your leave and thank you for all your input - and BTW, I'm living in the country and enjoy gardening every day - great tomatos, cucumbers, Zucchinis - string beans this year ... and have a great vacation.

POG will hopefully appreciate your efforts too - cb2

site steward

(08/09/2001; 15:19:46 MDT - Msg ID: 59294)

auspec and "eggs"

Excerpted from your source: "If you have a desire of being rich, you must focus. Put a lot of your eggs in a few baskets."

Unfortunately, a seemingly important element is absent from this guidance: one of TIMING.

It should be stated that for those seeking the greatest success, the time of focus should PRECEDE the placement of eggs into specific baskets. That is to say, a person should focus on his or her choice of baskets moreso than focus after-the-fact upon the following dismal results of random, unfocused choices (baskets).

Go for the gold.

site steward

(08/09/2001; 15:28:36 MDT - Msg ID: 59295)

Welcome to andrus sommerselg

http://www.usagold.com/announcement/international.htmlThank you for joining us in discussion.

You might be pleased to know that MK and his staff has good connections and can generally obtain any of the standard precious metal products for delivery to three continents (North America, Europe, and Australia).

Please feel welcome to call Centennial toll free for product availability and prices. And of course, feel even more free to continue sharing your thoughts on silver, gold, and paper.

SteveH

(08/09/2001; 15:35:39 MDT - Msg ID: 59296)

Repost

www.kitco.comThis is a repost:

Date: Thu Aug 09 2001 17:20
Captain_Kirk (Some Common Misconceptions Clarified) ID#342221:
Copyright � 2000 Captain_Kirk/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Misconception number 1 ) . The United States was on a "Bi-metalic Standard" from 1794 through 1933.

Incorrect. The US dollar was a coin of silver containing 371.25 grains of silver. The US Congress of 1794 established a mint, measured the silver content by weight of the commonly used Spanish Milled "dollar", the "Pieces of Eight", and minted US dollars having the same weight of silver as these existing "dollars" that were in common usage at the time of the formation of the United States of America. There was no new "dollar", only a new stamp on an existing commonly used silver coin. Old dollar debts could be paid in newly coined coins with no "new" versus "old" dollar conversion problems. This silver coin, this US dollar was minted for the next 140 years up until 1935. Between the years of 1787 and 1935, a contracted debt of dollars was a debt to deliver a certain weight of silver, such that the weight in grains ( 480 grains to the troy ounce ) was calculated by multiplying the number of dollars owed by 371.25 grains. Foreign coins of silver could be used to pay a dollar debt of dollars because a debt of dollars was a debt of silver and the "exchange rate" was a simple calculation based on the weight of silver contained in the foreign coin.

In the late 1700s, due to the existing conditions of world trade, the silver price of gold stayed fairly constant over a long period of time. The silver price of gold was just simply the silver/gold exchange ratio, which was 15/1 up through the mid 1840s. A silver/gold exchange ratio meant that the markets were exchanging 15 unit weights of silver for 1 unit weight of gold. Since the silver/gold exchange ratio remained fairly constant in world trade markets, then coins of gold were minted that had their dollar ( silver dollar ) value stamped on them. For example a 20 dollar gold piece had 495 grains of gold in the coin, and this weight of gold was calculated from the following formula, 20 times ( 371.25 / 15 ) grains ( 1 fifteenth of 371.25 grains is equal to 24.75 grains, so 24.75 grains gold would exchange for a silver dollar which was 371.25 grains silver ) . The word "US dollar" means 371.25 grains weight of silver.

The "Bi-metalic Standard" was a euphemistic term that referred to the political efforts of certain silver factions of the late 1800's that tried to artificially "fix" the silver/gold exchange ratio within the political borders of the United States. This was a simple market protectionism of US holders of silver debt, which included the US government. In the late 1800's, in world markets, silver was "de-valued" against gold or became unstable such that the silver price of gold was increasing or fluctuating. As the unit of account in the US was the silver price of goods, then gold savers saw their savings "appreciate" in that they could buy more market goods ( over time ) for the same amount of gold. So if one had a 20 dollar gold piece, then he would not want to use this 20 dollar gold piece to purchase 20 silver dollars worth of goods because his 20 dollar gold piece was worth more than 20 silver dollars.

Generally, during the late 1800's and early 1900's the silver/gold exchange ratio became unstable with silver gradually depreciating against gold on the world markets such that gold gradually became a more stable unit of account than silver. This meant that producers would want to secure contracts for the exchange of gold for goods instead of the exchange of silver for goods. But in law and contracts there could never be a "Bi-metalic Standard". There was no lawful way to compel a debtor of silver to deliver gold in payment of the debt. Even with the widespread use of banknotes, the gold or silver certificates, the creditor could always demand "specie", which was actual gold of silver coin, in payment of debt.

The US Constitution requirement that "no state shall make any thing but gold or silver coin a tender for payment of debt" was in essence a strict unalterable ( except by Constitutional amendment ) requirement that no state could require taxes in anything but gold or silver coin. And the state had no power to alter or interfere with the creation and fulfillment of private contracts. Notice how people are asked to or supposedly required to sign something whenever they pay taxes in something other than silver or gold coin. This is a simple subterfuge to get a "form of a contract" from the "tax payer" so that the taxing entity can pretend that the "tax payer" is agreeing to a private contract. Really, if one pays a debt, then the creditor should tender a signed receipt, and the one paying the debt would be under no obligation to sign anything, would he? It would not be an outlandish statement to say that the entire Federal Reserve System monetary system is based almost entirely on the ignorance and outright stupidity of the people using the system. The Federal Reserve System ( FRS ) is simply a private trade association. All one has to do is to cancel their FRS membership, and any FRS trade number "debt" they supposedly "owe" will disappear like so much smoke.

Misconception number 2 ) . The United States was on a "Gold Standard" from 1933 to 1973

This is a misconception of terminology. During the time period of 1933 to 1964, the United States of America as formed under the Constitution of 1787 ceased to exist. First, the Constitutionally defined states ceased to exist as there was no state that allowed payment of taxes exclusively in gold or silver coin. Even though states allowed payment of taxes in silver coin, they gave preferential tax abatements to members of the Federal Reserve System ( FRS ) private trade association by allowing these members to pay taxes in FRS trade numbers. These "states", in name only, paid their silver dollar debts using FRS trade numbers using the scam that FRS silver certificates, issued up until 1964, could be "redeemed" for silver dollars, albeit on a very limited basis. But the US mint minted no silver dollars after 1935 and minted only silver change coins up until 1964, therefore the silver money supply was taken out of circulation. So by 1964, due to the unlawful Roosevelt US gold embargo of 1933 that removed gold from circulation as money, both silver and gold were effectively embargoed from circulation as money. So by 1965 the United States of America, as formed under the Constitution of 1787, ceased to exist forever.

The so-called "Gold Standard" often referred to today, is really talking about the "Bretton Woods Agreement" of 1944 through 1971 which was scam used by the FRS to get foreign countries to adopt complementary FRS trade numbers type "money" systems. The US/FED became the gold depository for the member countries of this Bretton Woods Agreement, the other members would take FRS trade numbers on deposit as reserve "currencies", and the member countries could exchange their "reserve" FRS trade numbers" with US/FED held gold at a specified rate of exchange. Nixon's default of the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 instituted the so-called "floating currency" scheme, which was nothing more than the imposition of the world wide officialized trade numbers� associations and pacts. The so-called "Gold Standard" is nothing more than a euphemism for the "Bretton Woods Agreement".

Misconception number 3 ) . Since there is no United States of America today, there is no law.

Wrong. English and American Common Law as formed in concept and practice over the 700 years between the approximate dates of 1200 AD to 1900 AD will always exist, as long as there are people who have knowledge of and who wish to follow this Law. This Common Law needs no nation state, official court, or association of lawyers as this Law is a law of the people. Private contracts, private property, free trade of private property, free association, and free ownership of the fruits of one's own labor, are all recognized concepts and practices of this Common Law.

site steward

(08/09/2001; 15:42:18 MDT - Msg ID: 59297)

Answer for Cavan Man on the Eurosystem "selloff" of EUR 400 million in foreign currency

In resonse to yesterday's report on the international reserves of the Eurosystem, you asked me: ----"Where do you suppose the EUR 400mm went? How are these sorts of transactions effected?"------

The decline in the net position in foreign currency held in account by the ECB and 12 EMU member CBs would be the combined effect of transactions by their customers and of portfolio adjustments for whatever reason. Getting rid of overvalued dollars while the "getting" is good, perhaps? That would be my motivation as an international customer within the eurosystem -- draining my dollar account to be exchanged for personal gold holdings.

Thanks for reading along. (ho hum)?

AbsoluteX

(08/09/2001; 16:03:31 MDT - Msg ID: 59298)

Nasdaq MUST Crash ANOTHER 83%

http://safemoneyreport.com/crash/stockgrok/Mark my words:
If you own stocks or equity funds in 2001 - 2002, you're going to get clobbered!

President Bush and Fed Chief Greenspan would LOVE to come to the rescue
- but they CAN'T!

Alan Greenspan's interest rate cuts can't even BEGIN to stop the coming crash - and he knows it!

Every Fed Chairman in history tried to prevent past recessions by lowering interest rates; and every one of them failed miserably.

Netking

(08/09/2001; 16:24:01 MDT - Msg ID: 59299)

Middle East - Snippits . . . .

Does the M/East have much to do with PM's, believe it! As McAgspec implied the PPT would find it hard to control a war, heck these guys struggle with the paper trade at times! I note 'elsewhere' that Len Kaplan's reasoning for a Au spike based on the bomb was rubbished, I think he was right on(IMO). I'm 40 with my oldest girl soon to go to high school, wonder how the world will look when she's my age . . . anyway I digress, a few things that may be of interest: . . .
------------------------------------------------------------
Informed Dave Dolan say's(writing from Israel)"Today's attacks could be the trigger for the postponed major army operation. Or it might be that Sharon decides that the time is not ripe for such action. But some sort of serious response can be expected in the very near future (the security cabinet is currently scheduled to meet early this evening to discuss today's attack). . . it definitely looks like Sharon and Peres will now be forced to bite the bullet and do the job themselves, whatever the local or regional consequences. . ."
------------------------------------------------------------
Islamic Jihad claims responsibility - Israel calls emergy cabinet meeting
http://www.jpost.com/Editions/2001/08/09/LatestNews/LatestNews.32258.html
------------------------------------------------------------
The same man who telephoned AFP in Amman to claim the Thursday suicide bombing there on behalf of Islamic Jihad called again to say its forces would carry out similar attacks elsewhere in "Palestine," including Tel Aviv.

"Operations will be started again on other Palestinian cities, notably Tel Aviv, in the same manner," said the caller after at least 17 people were killed and more than 80 injured in the blast at a crowded pizzeria in central west Jerusalem.

http://asia.dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/world/article.html?s=asia/headlines/010809/world/afp/Islamic_Jihad_threatens_attacks_on_Tel_Aviv__elsewhere.html
------------------------------------------------------------
Cabinet minister: "This time we WILL respond"
http://www.jpost.com/Editions/2001/08/09/LatestNews/LatestNews.32304.html
------------------------------------------------------------
Muslim Brotherhood to Arab nations: "Wage holy war"
http://www.jpost.com/Editions/2001/08/08/LatestNews/LatestNews.32197.html
------------------------------------------------------------
- Netking

R Powell

(08/09/2001; 17:05:33 MDT - Msg ID: 59300)

Gold or Silver??

http://www.mcalvany.com/specialreports/nov/silver.html There was much talk today about whether one should buy gold or silver. Why? Why not just buy both if that's affordable? I'm presently forced by finances (or the lack of) to hold only silver as a physical holding. To wonder which one to buy implies that the choice exists. If so, why not both? CPM sells both.
Concerning digital photography's potential to remove silver demand from that market. The latest numbers I've seen show no slowdown in silver use in photography. How many of the world's population can afford a very expensive digital camera and the $1000 computer that's also needed to produce pictures? How much does a cheap camera cost?
From Don McAlvany, "Photographic demand in 1999 jumped 3.9% over 1998 and is forecast to grow by 4.5% in 2000 over 1999." This is from the link above. Hope it still works.
Rich (in the to da moon group)

Zenidea

(08/09/2001; 17:39:36 MDT - Msg ID: 59301)

Wheres the emotional Abacus ?

Hi all. Just on a personal nano level I notice that some banks are beginning to inundate me with special offers like transfer X balance over to Y and pay 4% for 6 months fixed instead of the usual 16-17%. I notice that these are Visa offers and not Mastercard ones. A Bank phoned me on Sunday night believe it or not with a gentleman apologiseing for the time/day (Hungry for business?) and further commented when I commented on this that Mastercard is American and Visa is European. ( Is that right ?).

This week there has been (somewhat suddenly ) several hundred lay offs in nickel and I know large numbers of workers in line for the chop in alumina. Cut backs in Aussie.

Now I see Gold hop and the US dollar tank, oops euro strengthen. Immm getting lured by the trail. Might just rest golden eggs in a silver basket from here on in and sit.

Netking

(08/09/2001; 17:50:58 MDT - Msg ID: 59302)

M/East (cont.) - Hal Lindsey

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=23961Remember Hal Lindsey? . . .author of best seller "The late great planet earth", a book that impacted me & others back in the 70's. Hal comments on the current situation in the above link.
------------------------------------------------------------
Snippit:
"A war of the magnitude that is developing there will especially have profound effects on the oil driven economies of the West. In the most extreme scenario, the coming war could force the U.S. military to get involved directly . . . weapons of mass destruction, which are bristling in the inventories of all the potential combatants, could cause an appalling loss of life and render some of the oil-rich Middle East regions ininhabitable for decades. . .

"According to the most recent Israeli intelligence assessments, a regional war is a foregone conclusion by 2002. Personally, I think that is an overly optimistic time schedule . . ."

The following review of recent developments shows that a war may be only a matter of days or weeks ahead. The events themselves are taking on a life of their own that leads down an all too familiar path that ends in war � and this time, a war of cataclysmic scope . . . "

site steward

(08/09/2001; 17:51:22 MDT - Msg ID: 59303)

For Zenidea -- Visa and MasterCard

From your post: ---"I commented on this that Mastercard is American and Visa is European. ( Is that right ?)."---

Visa came about through a name change in 1977 from what was formerly the BankAmericard, an amalgamation of smaller banks that joined with the Bank of America credit card that was launched in 1958 in California.

(MaterCard, by the way, grew out of the 1969 MasterCharge credit card that was the offspring of the City Bank of New York.)

I hope this helps.

Black Blade

(08/09/2001; 17:56:54 MDT - Msg ID: 59304)

Forbes Body Count

http://www.forbes.com/2001/01/30/layoffs.html
Not on the "Body Count" is that today the GAP announced that 750 would be added to the "Bone Pile." Just a few minutes ago they upped the ante to "over 1000" that will be added to the "Bone Pile." The bodies are piling up so fast that you need wings to keep above the stench of the deteriorating economic landscape. This is not a good sign where layoffs are occurring at a fast pace even as the drones and Pied Pipers plead for investors to remain calm and that they "...see a bottom..." Definitely time to add to the "...PM Pile..."

Zenidea

(08/09/2001; 18:07:22 MDT - Msg ID: 59305)

Thanks site steward

Well then it appears that the substance of what this gent
said is flawed indeedy :). Ok all thats me; got to visit the land and check the dam. At the moment rain is Gold, be back monday for a lurk.

BR549

(08/09/2001; 18:13:35 MDT - Msg ID: 59306)

Classical Commodity Investing vs. PM Investing

The assumption that supply (or lack of) determines future prices may not work anymore for precious metals.

Simplistically, if you are in a futures contract and the weather looks like a drought may occur, then you need to watch corn, soybeans, etc. because supply affects demand and consequently price (or what traders conceive the supply may or may not be).

However, if you have limited resources and must choose between silver and gold, you need to put your limited assets where they will bring you the most return. Remember true hedging is only for those with unlimited resources. Some would argue making the correct investment choice applies to the super rich also.

Yesterday, an investment in gold was right on! I have problems with the argument that PM's fit into commodity classical definitions of supply being used up by production as long as manipulations (derivatives) etc. continue unabated and FOMC notes for their meetings have a five year time lag. Let's see what happens to gold tomorrow if the dollar stabilizes.

Regards from Cornfield County

Netking

(08/09/2001; 18:38:20 MDT - Msg ID: 59307)

Russian gold reserves up by 30.5 per cent since beginning of the year

http://globalarchive.ft.com/globalarchive/articles.html?id=010809001197&query=gold"Russia's gold and forex reserves have reached a record high, totalling 36,502m dollars as of 1 August, the Central Bank of Russia reported on its web site.

Forex reserves total 32,694m dollars, while the gold reserves amount to 3,807m dollars. The reserves have increased 30.5 per cent since the beginning of the year, from 27,972m dollars to 36,502m dollars."

Maybe we're seeing what Dave Morgan reported(from his site)per below with reference to the expected outwoking of the Russian perception of dollars crash?
------------------------------------------------------------
"Russia is getting ready for the dollar to crash.

Preparedness measures have moved from the realm of published warnings, to concrete actions, such as the Central Bank's decision to put the gold chervonets coin into circulation. The short-term purpose of that move is to attract Russians' savings out of the dollar, and into the Russian chervonets, in a country where $100 billion or more is held in cash (U.S. Federal Reserve Notes). Beyond that result, the Russian currency shift could become a stepping stone to more profound changes in international monetary policy-as nations seek safety from the disintegration of the Anglo-American-centered world financial system. "The Bank of Russia (Central Bank) acted on July 10, making the gold chervonets legal tender."(from silver-investor.com)

Cavan Man

(08/09/2001; 18:45:14 MDT - Msg ID: 59308)

Towne Crier

I am ho-humming your new sobriquet.

auspec

(08/09/2001; 19:09:51 MDT - Msg ID: 59309)

Midas Tonight

"Then today on CNBC, the commentators yapped all day about gold going up because of the weakness of the dollar; showing charts about the relationship, etc. Who set them up with that insight, I wonder?"

"Very strange - all of this - because gold bolted sharply higher in May during and after the GATA African Gold Summit in Durban, South Africa. Yet, the dollar strengthened during that run-up. No explanation was ever given by mainstream analysts for the May gold price rise except some half-baked ones such as "inflation expectations" were on the rise."

"Now, the gold move is tied to dollar weakness with CNBC even calling gold a "currency.""

"What could be going on?"

"The arguments that Dudley gives for a weaker dollar could have been made a year ago. Why do they matter now?"

"I don't have the answers, but what we do know is that GATA is gaining ground in gangbuster fashion. We know that members of Congress are all over Greenspan and O'Neill about GATA's gold issues. I have learned recently that The Gold Cartel is petrified that Reg Howe's Complaint might reach the discovery stage. We now have caught the cabal trying to cover-up what they have done - which is most embarrassing as it provides further evidence of guilt."

"To sum up, the heat has been turned up big time on the bad guys."

"There is also no doubt in my mind (probably yours too) that the manipulation of the gold market was one of the features of the strong dollar policy urged by former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin. Except for "jawboning" (big deal), how was the heralded strong dollar policy actually implemented? Secretary O'Neill said there was only a minor Japanese currency intervention this past year."

"One way to end the strong dollar policy then would be to end the manipulation of the gold price."

"If the gold rig is on the way out, they are going to need some kind of cover, or excuse, for a coming massive rise in the price of gold. Perhaps, they intend to blame it on the coming fall of the dollar, which is clearly underway. Treasury Secretary O'Neill met with the Goldman Sachs people in London this week. One thing for sure, there is a reason that Goldman Sachs is trumpeting the demise of the dollar. Wish I could get a better handle on what they are up to."

"Anyway you look at it, however, today's developments are constructive for the gold price." END

Comment: How many thousands of people will one day claim they were GATA supporters {like the millions who supposedly saw Hank Aaron break Babe's record}? Be part of history!
Wish we could be in on the decision making process, but must settle for scraps from the table of GS, Rothschilds or other 'socially superior groups' {elitists}. Oh well, soon the entire table will crumble.
Regards,
a

Canuck

(08/09/2001; 19:27:09 MDT - Msg ID: 59310)

@ Cavan Man

(To 'site steward': this is one of my 'dork' posts, entirely off-topic. I promise to re-focus)

CM,

A long story made short.

My outboard on my boat blew up a couple weeks ago and I'm running around looking for parts. Three hours ago I left on my hunt to a marina at some lake in the bush. At the corner of the last gravel road is a woman selling corn. Innocent enough, this corn thing on the side of the road is common enough in these parts, at this time of year. The only thing that struck out was the young woman attending the 'corn-wagon'. My 'eye' is still bang on after 41 years. The young lady, as I approached, was stunningly beautiful and she was .... well...... gifted.

Now my weak point, I began to talk to her. Man, is it hot today or what? (dork statement #1)

"Oh ...this isn't hot"

She has quite the accent so I blurt, " You are from Britain?"

'No, I'm from Australia"

"You're from Australia (genius), you must know Crocodile Dundee!" (dork statement #2)

"No.....I have heard of him, but I don't know him personally"

So the conversation struggled on for a minute or so, I wound up my stupidity and left. Over the couple few minutes
I analysed the poor showing with the stellar, young vixen and decided 2 things:

i) old tired men should not mix(can not mix?) with the young ladies when young, studly males chase them.

ii)it involves obsolute concentration to understand either women or gold. I am presently 'zoned in' on the gold world so therefore I officially relinquish the duty of 'chasing young shirts' to gentlemen of your calibur. This will allow you a chance to catch up!

;)

Canuck.

Solomon Weaver

(08/09/2001; 19:41:36 MDT - Msg ID: 59311)

(No Subject)

Something is in the windNewmont (NEM) looks really impressive on a 10 day interday chart....I am not a chartist (Hey what ever happened to Mountain Gold??) but since I own NEM and kinda watch it, I get the distinct feeling that something or someone is making them move.....

Now they have HQ in the same town as CPM.....Maybe someone big who was trying to research Newmont landed here instead.

Poor old Solomon

darkhorse

(08/09/2001; 19:58:12 MDT - Msg ID: 59312)

Personal observations, FWIW

Does anybody else notice a bit of an increase in new names around here? Are these casual lurkers (like yours truly) that have been around a while, or is this site gaining a wash of attention lately?

On silver: A few hundred million Chinese running around with disposable cameras aren't going to help the deficit this year, or any time in the forseeable (sp?) future.

Given the history of Israel, does it strike anybody else that they've been VERY restrained in their international affairs since the Gulf War? At the end of the 100 hours, I was taking bets Hussein would have eaten a bullet, gotten into a vehicle with a particular IR "spot" (or other various assorted sundry reasons for it to go "boom") or had a real bad reaction to something he drank (can you say Mossad?)...within six months. I never expected Israel to put up with as much as they have, especially recently.

TPTB seem to control everything, right? So how hard would it be to come up with some sort of "conspiracy theory". These guys are smart people, they see things us schmoes don't...after all, how do you think they got to where they are? So, they see the economic picture getting worse, they've got their fingers stuck in a messy golden pie, and they need a way out. They steer the economics the best they can, and "motivate" some Palestinians. Even if the US military doesn't get involved, whatever happens to POG can easily be pinned to the M/E. It's not like the average guy on the street can put two seemingly separate issues together. I know, it's too simple and too neat, but who says TPTB don't like the KISS method?

megatron

(08/09/2001; 20:16:28 MDT - Msg ID: 59313)

Big time trending

Agian, if your interested, take a look at the TSE PM index. It's a far more acurate make-up and is in serious up trend mode. Money like that does not come from Joe and Jane investor.

Black Blade

(08/09/2001; 22:21:00 MDT - Msg ID: 59314)

California officials say Western states neared blackouts

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2001/08/09/state1902EDT7229.DTL&type=news
Snippit:

California power managers say 65 million customers in 11 Western states and parts of Canada and Mexico were at risk of blackouts last week when several power suppliers failed to deliver electricity to the region as promised. Gregg Fishman, a spokesman for the California Independent System Operator, said during last Thursday's incident, the balance was so close that the unexpected loss of a single power plant could have triggered the region's worst outage in five years.

Black Blade: In spite of mild weather and energy conservation, it is not enough. We came precariously close to the edge. Given a heat wave, cold snap, or power plant closures for maintenance, we could see more telling cracks in the energy grid. Add growing demand, decaying infrastructure, NIMBY, and lack of fuel, we are facing economic disaster.

Black Blade

(08/09/2001; 22:33:04 MDT - Msg ID: 59315)

Heat wave sends electricity prices soaring in East

http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=TOPST&ARTICLE_ID=112033
Snippit:

HOUSTON, Aug. 8 -- Wholesale electricity prices in the day ahead and real time markets in the Northeast soared to triple digits and higher Tuesday because of a heat wave that lingers over the area. New England, New York, and PJM Interconnect are all in the midst of a week-long hot spell sending prices up. In ISO New England standby electricity services were quoted at $1,800/Mw-hr. Prices hit triple digits for energy and ancillary services in PJM Interconnect and in the region served by the New York Independent System Operator. Prices were so high for 10-minute nonspinning reserves and other ancillary services in New England the ISO said Tuesday's bids were under review and "subject to change." At 4 p.m. 10-minute nonspinning reserves hit $1,800/Mw-hr, while 30-mintue operating reserves were $1,000/Mw-hr. PJM issued a warning that reserves are so tight blackouts are a possibility if the system loses the equivalent of its largest operating generator or transmission facility. The amount of power being transferred in the eastern and western parts of PJM was approaching the transfer limit and was already above the "warning level."

Black Blade: When the utility bills arrive, take comfort in knowing that this is not inflationary as it is not calculated in the CPI core-rate. In other words, when those in the east are paying triple the usual rate, AG will give comfort by saying that inflation is benign. That's right - it's just your imagination.

Black Blade

(08/09/2001; 23:01:16 MDT - Msg ID: 59316)

Electric storm: Mild summer and US slowdown stave off Californian crisis

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/story.jsp?story=87974
Snippit:

Nothing about California's electricity crisis is turning out as expected. This was supposed to be the summer of sky-high wholesale prices and non-stop rolling blackouts, but they haven't happened That's mostly because of a fluke of nature: The weather has been uncannily mild and so demand for air-conditioning and refrigeration systems, in particular, has been significantly reduced. It also helps, in a perverse sort of way, that the economy has been slowing down, particularly the energy-guzzling hi-tech sector. Consumption fell by 11 per cent in June, even before a round of retail price increases kicked in on 1 July, and by 5 per cent in July.

That's not all that has gone against expectations. We heard California's governor, Gray Davis, and his supporters, accuse private energy generating suppliers of "gouging" prices; the worst of them, they said, were based in the president's home state of Texas. However, power-buying statistics published last month showed that Texas companies like Enron and Dynergy had, in fact, sold California only 10 per cent of its electricity since the beginning of the year - much less than the Canadians, say - and that the highest spot-rate prices of all had in fact been charged by California-based concerns.

Black Blade: Looks as if we could just get by this summer as we "whistle past the graveyard." Kalifornia has been fortunate to have mild weather and a deepening recession to mediate the power crunch. As long as the economy is in a deepening recession and energy costs remain high, Kalifornians could get by without a more severe energy crisis. Now they must address the decaying energy grid and secure NG fuel supplies for the power generating facilities. This is a good article that illustrates the inherent energy problems throughout the US. Definitely looks like time for adding to PM positions for portfolio insurance.

Note that Kommissar "Red" Davis has been caught in yet another lie about the energy crisis.

Black Blade

(08/09/2001; 23:12:20 MDT - Msg ID: 59317)

Discount Sales Up in July; Malls Empty

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010809/business_retail_sales_dc_5.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. shoppers, strapped by a weakening economy and rising layoffs, again turned to discounters in July as they sought bargains on air conditioners, back-to-school items, personal-care products and food, leaving apparel and department store chains pinched by stunted sales. ``There's still consumer apprehension out there as people are losing jobs,'' Buckingham Research Group retail analyst Daniel Binder said.

Black Blade: It is looking grim out there. The "Bone Pile" grows daily and it does not go unnoticed by the masses. They know that they must save and pay down debt as they too could soon be laid upon the "Bone Pile."

Black Blade

(08/09/2001; 23:24:16 MDT - Msg ID: 59318)

The Demographics of the Slowdown

http://www.dismal.com/thoughts/article.asp?aid=1327
Snippit:

In a bitter reversal of fortune, the wunderkinds of the late 1990s labor market have become the layoff statistics of 2001. Gone is the legion of Internet startups that fueled escalating starting salaries, automatic signing bonuses and the certainty of multiple job offers. However, while casualties among the digital generation are no doubt worsened by the dot com bust, the demographics of this new economy slowdown still look very similar to the old economy variety.

Black Blade: Easy Come - Easy Go. Interesting article and graphs. And the "Bone Pile" grows...

schippi

(08/09/2001; 23:49:54 MDT - Msg ID: 59319)

Select Gold chart

http://www.SelectSectors.com/agpm120.gifBuy signal in progress.

Canuck

(08/10/2001; 04:31:25 MDT - Msg ID: 59320)

@ BB

Heard last night that the discount stores (ie Costco and Walmart) enjoying higher sales while the high end retailers taking a beating.

Ominous sign of consumer retrenching?View Yesterday's Discussion.

Netking

(08/10/2001; 05:00:49 MDT - Msg ID: 59321)

"Scrap the strong dollar rhetoric" - Financial Times

http://globalarchive.ft.com/globalarchive/articles.html?id=010808001545&query=DudleyFT says: No more strong dollar, US policymakers risk losing credibility if they continue to talk up the currency

Snippit:

The time has come to scrap the strong dollar policy. It made sense when the US economy was booming, because a strong currency helped to suppress inflationary pressures. But in a downturn this approach has outlived its usefulness. It undermines the effectiveness of lower interest rates in stimulating growth by undercutting the competitiveness of US exports.

A strong dollar policy also no longer makes sense because it is unlikely to prove sustainable. The US has a large current account deficit, which has grown sharply in recent years. This imbalance creates a risk. If foreign investors' appetite for dollar-denominated assets were to diminish, the result could be a sharp plunge in the value of the dollar - and subsequent potential havoc in the US bond and equity markets . . .

Black Blade

(08/10/2001; 06:10:06 MDT - Msg ID: 59322)

RE: Canuck

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010809/business_retail_sales_dc_5.htmlCheck out the link above. Hey, with a whole $300.00 rebate from the IRS I won't be running to Rodeo Drive to do my shopping either. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/10/2001; 06:38:24 MDT - Msg ID: 59323)

Canuck @ # 59320

Sir, you said,

"Heard last night that the discount stores (i.e. Costco and Wal-Mart) enjoying higher sales while the high end retailers taking a beating. Ominous sign of consumer retrenching?"

____________________________________________________

HBM

I had an unusual experience last evening, out of town, in the Bootheel of Missouri. A marginal Wal-Mart store, non-super center was in its last day or two of liquidating inventory before closing the doors. Everything in the store was market down first and then sold @ 50% off of the marked down price. I have not seen a Wal-Mart store closed in the last 15 years. This store was located near the intersection of two interstate highways. I would have expected that the inventories to have been transferred to other Wal-Mart stores, or a Wal-Mart distrubution center(re-distribution center - smile). There is a Wal-Mart Super Center just 12 miles west on Interstate 57. There is another Wal-Mart Super Center another 48 miles west which has been historically the best performing super center in the World.

My wife and I are not the super consumer types, however we did spend over two hundred dollars. We find it hard to pass up real durable assets at fire sale prices (lawn furniture already planning to buy � retail $278 (sale price $96) - several bottles of Tums @ half price, nice regulation football for $5.50, etc.

The big surprise: I made my first investment in Wal-Mart(grin). I used a part of my fiat savings to purchase 17 packages of 3-ounce rolls of "BernzOmatic" silver solder. My price was $1.50 per 3-ounce roll. Any one out there know exactly how many troy ounces of pure silver is in a 3-ounce roll of this stuff? It is also nicely packaged for easy storage.

Very respectfully,

HBM

Knallgold

(08/10/2001; 06:52:58 MDT - Msg ID: 59324)

--------Physical trades above paper!?--------

Check GE 7:35 for this post by Tsung_Ming_Houtzu

Am I reading this right?Physical decoupling?

China - Shanghai sets floor on gold-jewelry price, ends price war

The opening of gold-jewelry prices on Aug. 1 had triggered a price war among various gold stores in Shanghai.

Therefore, on Aug. 5, the Shanghai Gem and Jade Association and the Shanghai Gold Ornament Trade Association gathered representatives from various large gold stores and sales agents of famous gold-jewelry brands to discuss the issue of market competition after the loosening of price restrictions.

Currently, the international gold price is fluctuating upward, whereas the designated sales price of gold, published weekly by the Peoples Bank of China, is still maintained at between 70 yuan per gram (US$240.12 per ounce) and 85 yuan per gram (US$291.44 per ounce), the Aug. 6 Xinmin Wanbao (Xinmin Evening News) reported.

In addition, there is not much room for profits earned from gold jewelry after processing expenses, consumption taxes and value-added taxes are factored in. If the price war wages on, it would likely affect companies long-term growth, the article said.

Those who attended the meeting therefore unanimously agreed to set limits on the lowest sales price of pure gold at 96 yuan per gram (US$329.14 per ounce), or seven yuan per gram (US$24.10 per ounce) lower than the 103 yuan per gram price (US$353.24 per ounce) that existed before the loosening of restrictions.

The lowest price of Shanghais brand-name gold products at well-known stores like the Shanghai Lao Fengxiang Gift Co., Lao Miao Gold and Ya Yi Gold Shop will be set at 98 yuan per gram (US$335.95 per ounce).

Effective Aug. 6, gold stores that had already lowered their prices will reset their prices according to the ones agreed upon at the meeting, the story said.

escapethematrix

(08/10/2001; 07:31:04 MDT - Msg ID: 59325)

U.K. Already Meets Euro Tests, Analysts Say; It's Up to Brown

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AO3MWaBSUVS5LLiBBSnippets:

Today, analysts say, the U.K. economy -- as measured by short-term interest rates and growth potential -- has indeed converged with that of the euro countries.

The U.K. economic cycle has become significantly more closely aligned with that of Euroland,'' PriceWaterhouseCoopers said in a July report.

Economically speaking,'' the U.K. ``could go in,'' said DeAnne Julius, until last May a member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee.

The tune certainly seems to be changing relatively quickly in the U.K......It's "inflate or die"....Or join the Euro.

escapethematrix

(08/10/2001; 07:48:00 MDT - Msg ID: 59326)

U.S. and British Planes Launch Largest Attack Against Iraq Since February

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGARPN108QC.htmlSnippet:

A White House spokesman said President Bush, who repeatedly called Iraqi President Saddam Hussein a menace in recent days, was notified Thursday night of the impending attack, which the White House described as a routine but somewhat heavier than customary."

BR549

(08/10/2001; 08:04:40 MDT - Msg ID: 59327)

CNBC sometimes doing the right thing

I noticed that this morning occasionally CNBC asks its "somebody please buy this dog my firm owns analysts", after the interview "if they own it." An amazing 100% of the time, they did. At least they're temporarily headed in the right direction. The next step is to ask in advance of the interview.

USAGOLD

(08/10/2001; 08:50:59 MDT - Msg ID: 59328)

Today's Commentary & Review: Doldrums End Suddenly, Decisively

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.htmlNote: If you would like to receive an information packet on gold (how to buy it -- our products and services) and a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views, please go to the link above. For those seeking a higher level of understanding with respect to the gold market, many of the fundamentals discussed briefly below are covered in detail in our upcoming quarterly reviews. Please go to the link above to register for your packet.

8/10/01

In Brief: At about the time the Genoa conference was concluding, I made the general observation that it seemed it was in the best interest of the United States to foster a weaker dollar and Europe a stronger euro. Europe, it seemed, would not want to introduce the euro for circulation at the beginning of 2002 in an atmosphere of dissolution in forex markets. The United States, it seemed, would not benefit any longer from a "strong" dollar at a time when the general economy was in a state of protracted malaise. If nothing else, the prevailing strategy would be to let the markets take the currencies where they wanted with a gentle nudge through interest rate differentials to move the dollar down against the euro.

Now the ECB is making noise about raising rates -- inflation, it says, is rearing its ugly head in Europe -- and, the Fed is loudly trumpeting lower rates to be announced at the next, upcoming conclave. Recession, it says, is rearing its ugly head in America. So, it was (and is)that we thought the time might be right for gearing up the portfolio with a weightier gold position. (And I do believe that this group needs to debate "what the definition of is is.") This has not been lost on either the forex or the gold market.

Yesterday, we saw the first signs that this analysis might hold water when gold left the gate for $5.50 run-up by the end of the day. Today gold is up another $2 as the rally appears to have legs -- at least in the early going. The euro simultaneously is at a 3-month high. Yesterday's action seemed to come out of the blue which is how gold rallies usually begin -- when everything is quiet and the financial markets least expect it.

Remember, too, that we warned in July that the doldrums season often brings a surprise or two and that one should keep an eye on the markets as well as your favorite summertime pursuit. Yesterday's rally got some wind in its sails about mid-session when fund-buying came into the market. Bridge News reports short-covering this morning after a strong carry-over session in Asia and Europe. Wall Street friends are saying they sense something different in the air with this rally and that might have to do with the general bearish growl in the stock markets replete with investor lawsuits over ill-managed accounts, insider trading, laddering and a whole host of other complaints that usually attend bear markets. That general public antipathy with Wall Street bodes well for gold as well. There is also a general sense that the Bush administration favors a weaker dollar but, for good reason, remains loathe to do much more than hint at the policy, or better put, "lack of policy." American politicians generally loathe the prospect of being Hooverized -- one of the enduring lessons of American politics. GWB is no exception.

Stay in touch, and have a very nice weekend. MK

P.S. Let's not forget about ME and oil prices in all this -- fuel for the fire.

USAGOLD

(08/10/2001; 08:56:18 MDT - Msg ID: 59329)

Whoops. . . .

This sentence (2nd paragraph):

So, it was (and is)that we thought the time might be right for gearing up the portfolio with a weightier gold
position. (And I do believe that this group needs to debate "what the definition of is is.")

Should read:

So, it was (and is)that we thought the time might be right for gearing up the portfolio with a weightier gold
position. (And I do "NOT" believe that this group needs to debate "what the definition of is is.")

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/10/2001; 10:02:49 MDT - Msg ID: 59330)

Spot POG patterns

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.htmlThe London market just closed 12:00 Eastern with a spot POG of $275.10. If the pattern holds up spot POG will make a move during the next 30 minutes or so. The world seems to be perfectly content to let the New York market set the spot POG.

Respectfully,

HBM

site steward

(08/10/2001; 10:09:19 MDT - Msg ID: 59331)

Sweden: Euro to gain more ground, momentum?

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/010810/sweden_euro.htmlHEADLINE: Sweden Mulls Joining European Monetary Union

According to this AP article, Sweden's Prime Minister Goeran Persson said Sweden could join the EMU and have the euro adopted by 2005 -- his party supports the euro, although the decision would be left to a national referendum that could be held following an assessment after the next parlimentary elections in September 2002.

Looking ahead to the January introduction of euro notes and coins among the members of the monetary union as it might influence the referendum, Persson said, "If there will be a good start, then I believe we will join. But if it will be a shaky and somewhat difficult start, I think most people want to wait and see."

A poll last November showed that 46 percent of the Swedish population opposed joining the EMU, but that number has been in decline, now at 43 percent according to a poll in June. Those supporting the euro has grown from 28 to 31 percent. The swing vote of undecideds held steady at 26 percent in each poll.

Meanwhile, in the euro has reached a three-month high against the dollar, and despite the "strong dollar" rhetoric the euro has *somehow* managed to gain 6% against the dollar in the past month alone.

Like it (the euro) or not, the fact remains that the competition (to the dollar) is now there and very real. This alone will upset the world's appetite to continue to absorb our outflow of dollars and bonds. As an alternate holding, gold is independent and shall become viewed as the great equalizer.

miner49er

(08/10/2001; 10:31:07 MDT - Msg ID: 59332)

Argentine - Bonds to pay taxes, Round 2

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010808/n08325255.htmlYou know the more I think of this, the more I'm convinced that we're going to see more of this. Putting aside all the details, simply this is what's taking place:

1) Government borrows from you.
2) Government can't pay you back, so it says, let's wash what I owe you with what you owe me (bonds for tax payments).

In other words, I borrow $1000 from you (issue you a bond). I say you owe me $1000 (ceremonious "democratic" ritual invoking tax legislation). I say, "Look what a great guy I am, let's call it even-Steven, and forget about it." This is of course very simplistic, and highly cynical, but isn't this really what's happening in essence?

Government default risk is greatly mitigated because taxes are always owed, and the amount owed is not really determined by the debtor (tax payer), but the creditor (tax levyer).

Therefore government can play this game for a while, in that now it borrows voraciously, and whenever it is in a pinch, can raise taxes (arbitrarily increase the amount owed to it by legislative decree -- perhaps we might call this extortion?). Of course there are lots of things to iron out here, for instance:

Popular revolt: revolt happens when the people are pushed beyond the breaking point collectively. You must keep this point from being reached. To do this, you must identify the source of grievance. "It's the economy, stupid." Therefore manage the pain. If you can somehow cause the economy to stumble along, or even improve nominally, there will be absolutely no worry of internal rebellion. Yet, if you carry this too far (essentially borrowing and not paying back), you would bleed the body white. This would mean either

a) the government's productive deployment of these resources must be enough to feed, clothe and defend the entire nation enough to keep it from boiling over (the 20th century communist/socialist paradigm), or...

b) the government's financial deployment of these resources must be enough to allow the people to exist in a tolerable enough condition to keep it from boiling over (the 1990's + corporatist/socialist paradigm).

In a), the thoroughly discussed issues of market mechanisms more efficiently allocating and utilizing resources as opposed to central planning have generally won the day in the arena of manufacturing and services. The evidence of the failure of planned economies is ponderous. However, indeed we have entered a "Brave New World" regarding the financial deployment of resources. (Indeed, too, bravery and foolery are sometimes difficult to distinguish.)

In b), if one can entice external resources to finance your paradigm because of the perceived returns of doing so, you can fuel your consumption as long as your suitors are content to kiss your hand. In past days, the financing model, sans complex derivative "insurance," would consider fundamental issues regarding a potential debtor, and lend accordingly. Checks and balances were theoretically had, in that both creditor and debtor would be responsible for their decisions at a very direct point.

With the employment of derivatives, and the plethora of securities cocktails that are available to bundle up and unload risky transactions, risk becomes so obfuscated, and the originators of a transaction become so far removed from the ultimate point of accountability as to become virtually anonymous. It is no surprise that the fear of a bad decision is practically non-existent. This of course is exacerbated by the moral hazard encouraged by the issuing bank of the world's leading reserve currency.

Therefore, the potential for an influx of external financing is greatly broadened and lengthened. Traders, lusting after buxom returns, throw money at an entity, almost heedless of what that entity represents. It is not really necessary to know or care about how the entity will use these resources (if at all) in a productive capacity (doing and making things that others will pay for). About all that is of concern to them, is that this entity doesn't go belly-up. The focus becomes the marketability of the created financial instrument. This is what is now bought and sold. It is from this that new instruments are even further derived. The arbitrage of these instruments, and their capacity to transmute from junk to investment grade, keeps them viable for trade. The stability and viability of the issuing entity allows for rolling over the instrument at due date, to avoid reckoning, and the perception of continuation of the status quo allows this perception to be modelled into perpetuity.

As long as the piper keeps piping, he doesn't need to get paid.

So, back to Argentina... as long as the financial Shahmans can keep enticing resources into Argentinian securities, the nation of Argentina derives benefit by having money at its disposal to keep the country running, albeit most certainly suboptimally, but hopefully well above the revolt-threshold mentioned above. These instruments can be morphed into whatever, and traded, providing the satisfying returns for the speculators, and the enticement to keep the action at their table. Profligate and foolish deployment of these monies by lousy monetary, or fiscal behavior is covered by the big central banks, principally the U.S. via the IMF currently, as these otherwise not-very-significant players in terms of global influence suddenly find themselves on the TBTF fast train. This is considered internally a cause celebre by their politicians and leaders. So far everybody big wins. And the little guy is told he wins, but ya know, it just don't feel like winnin'...

-------------------------------------------------------

And finally, how else may this model of bonds for taxes be employed, perhaps in the U.S.? As site steward wisely states yesterday (#59266)
regarding the "evolution of a new usage value for a financial instrument," a premium will be ascribed to otherwise dead instruments if there is the assurance that a "meaningful authority" will step up to the plate and become an Accepter of Last Resort, if you will. While this might, ad absurdium, end up with all kinds of concoctions to give life to allerlei fallen investment angels, from the sophisticated to the populist (beanie babies...? ...or more likely the individual losses of small investors... or perhaps now worthless options promised as compensation to employees?)

I know I'm stretching here, but if the same goals are sought (stability and viability of the debtor entity, in order to perpetuate the Ponzi rollover financing of financial instruments, for the purpose of their arbitrage, whose profitability keeps 'em comin' back for more), then if it's beanie babies that are going to cause them to take to the streets, then why would it not be plausible to think that Sam will say, "O.K., beanie babies to pay your taxes, now shut up and go home!" Or more realistically again, thousands of people who lived on subsistence wages for the promise of Nirvanah when they cashed in their options, are now in debt up to their ears, and un- or under-employed for the debts they've incurred. Maybe the government accepts these options at some premium in lieu of tax payments, or agrees to underwrite some of their personal debt? After all, as long as the financial world still wants to play at our table, these things can be wrapped up into all kinds of high-yield, marketable securities and sold, and that for probably a decent paper gain... And the socialist politicians would love the power grab.

And now truly, finally... since the days of USD hegemony are numbered, this will not work in any large sense (enough to bail out everyone who comes with outstretched hand), unless someone even bigger is willing to lift the head of the US. This bigger one, in my estimation, will certainly be the Euro faction. What will the Euro faction want in return? (They are certainly willing to cut a deal as it is in their interests to not have the US economy crash and burn, as this would invite unnecessary and wicked hardship globally.) But I will stop here because I would stray hopelessly from the original topic. So nothing conclusive here, just some thoughts...

Hope they were of some use...

miner

site steward

(08/10/2001; 10:31:51 MDT - Msg ID: 59333)

Gold at a two-month high in London, traders expect it to retain its gains

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010810/l1066398.htmlAccording to Reuters, one trader said of gold's recent gains, "I can't see any reason why gold should not stay at present levels. I've heard of good two-way trade being reported today."

Barclays Capital indicated, "The most credible in our opinion relates to an Australian related buy-back of a hedge-book."

Another participant told Reuters, "`I've heard something but I don't have enough solid facts to confirm that."

Yet, ever ready with the wet blanket -- and seemingly oblivious to the precarious position of the dollar -- Reuters reported that such producer buy-backs in anticipation of higher prices could be negative: "`If this is indeed the case it is bad news for the short term gold price: if the buy back of a hedge book can rally prices up to $272/$273 it suggests that once confirmation is released prices may quickly reverese their gains unless fresh fund buying reaches the market later today."

Again, keep in mind the macroeconomic fundamentals. In the big picture over time, whether or not these funds bid for the derivatives "later today" is just a momentary blip on the radar screen.

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/10/2001; 10:45:50 MDT - Msg ID: 59334)

SPOT POG

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.htmlThis appears to be the beginning of an afternoon leg up before the New York close. Whatever the New York close do not expect any real change in POG until the London market opens on Monday and especially after the New York close on Monday.

Respectfully,

HBM

site steward

(08/10/2001; 11:14:50 MDT - Msg ID: 59335)

Investors learn at the school of hard knocks.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010810/n0766488_2.htmlHEADLINE: Slowing economy rewrites stock market rules

NEW YORK, Aug 10 (Reuters) - Gone are the days when announcements of job cuts sent stock holders jumping for joy and share prices soaring.

"When equity markets were doing well, investors saw layoffs as positive," said Dan Rivera, chief investment officer of American Express Asset Management Group's large-cap growth division. "They thought cuts could make companies more efficient, expand profit margins, and make them able to produce at a lower cost."

These days, layoffs push stocks under water as investors see the cuts as a last-ditch attempt to pump up corporate profits amid a global economic slowdown. It's the latest sign that the lagging U.S. economy has rewritten the rules of the stock market.

"There's a whole new round of recession-type strategies being employed by Lucent and American Express," said Ned Riley, chief investment strategist for State Street Global Advisors, which oversees $720 billion. "There's a feeling that the unemployment rate will go up even more, hurting stock values and eroding the wealth that people had been relying on."

"Now the market isn't reacting well to layoffs," said Rivera. "Investors wonder if consumers can keep buying enough to keep the economy out of recession."

In addition, layoffs now signal the economy may be getting worse, leading investors to pull out of stocks.
---------

These excerpts sure sound bleak. Hopefully, you have already formed a healthy perspective about the "performance benefits" of tangible goods and hard assets (that is to say, real wealth; not paper illusions of wealth).

To maintain the banking system in functioning order, the Fed can be expected to continue to ease monetary policy to promote inflation of the currency so that EVERYONE in the dollar system (including the savers who shall see their dollars devalued) shares the pain in the workout. The evolving monetary wisdom says to an indivual regardless of geography, "Why save dollars, pesos, euros, etc. when you can avoid this element of currency risk by saving gold instead?"

Seize the helm and be the captain of your own fortune.

site steward

(08/10/2001; 11:35:46 MDT - Msg ID: 59336)

Fed adds, although bank liquidity seemingly not needed

The market in overnight federal funds was trading below (3.69%) the FOMC's target (3.75%) for monetary policy, yet the Fed conducted open market operations to add $1.745 to the banking system using over-the-weekend repurchase agreements.

FOA, your recent trail message made me laugh out loud... "...response from the Fed. They will not be pushing on a string; rather picking up the ball of twine and throwing it!"

You're the best!

auspec

(08/10/2001; 12:43:55 MDT - Msg ID: 59337)

Silver

Someone smoked some silver today, Dec. COMEX Silver down 7.20.
Hmmmm.........maybe another use for Ag............smoking?
McAgspec

Buena Fe

(08/10/2001; 12:53:21 MDT - Msg ID: 59338)

Preaching to the choir

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AO3QjMhUUQXJnZW50This one is another hoot......can you believe the extent to which people (sheople) will have "faith" in their financial/political leaders??? C'mon Argentines......stand up for your selves........BUY GOLD!
_________________________________________________________
08/10 14:08
Argentina Aims to Build Confidence in Bid for Loans (Update2)
By Peter Wilson

Buenos Aires, Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Faced with a decision of what to do with 30,000 pesos in savings, Daniel Katzman left it all in a bank after hearing Argentine Economy Minister Domingo Cavallo say he'd seek $9 billion from the International Monetary Fund.

The government, in talks today and tomorrow with the IMF, is hoping to persuade more people to do the same. Unfortunately, Argentines in rising numbers are pulling savings from banks, and many economists say another $9 billion won't be enough to stem the outflow and prevent a devaluation or government debt default.

``There's a very serious lack of confidence in the system now and chances are that an extra six or nine billion dollars would not be enough to restore it,'' said Paulo Vieira da Cunha, senior economist for Latin America at Lehman Brothers Inc. ``The IMF knows that and the Argentines know that.''

Katzman, 40, a computer programmer who keeps his savings at Citibank NA, is putting his faith in the government because he believes Cavallo is taking the right steps to ensure Argentina can meet payments on $130 billion of debt and maintain the peso's one-to- one peg with the U.S. dollar. Argentine bonds rose for a fourth day on hopes Argentina will secure the additional financing.

``I have confidence in Cavallo,'' Katzman said.

Such optimism is exactly what the government is counting on to pull itself out a financial crisis that has doubled the country's borrowing costs since June, drained more than $6.1 billion from the banking system in six weeks and left the central bank with $15.6 billion in cash and gold reserves, 25 percent down from six weeks ago.

Currency System

Depositors are pulling an average $300 million a day from Argentina's banks and hoarding dollars at home, putting the country's decade-old currency system at risk. If it fails, economists said, the government may have no choice but to devalue and default on its debt.

``The government must brake the run on deposits, or it's over,'' said Abel Viglione, a senior economist at the Buenos Aires research company Fiel. ``Everything depends on this.''

The IMF already has agreed to speed a $1.2 billion loan payment to Argentina. The government says it's in negotiations for as much as $9 billion more. A cash injection of that size would help replenish central bank reserves and buy the government time to try to revive confidence in the currency and banking system, economists said.

Still, Argentina would need to prove it can limit spending and reduce the budget deficit enough to cover its debt obligations.

The $9 billion ``is a comfort zone,'' said Rafael de la Fuente, senior Latin American economist at BNP Paribas. ``The fall of reserves and the outflow of deposits is caused by a sense that the government is not going to make it, and that is what is driving people out the door.''

Argentina's benchmark bond rose 1.125 to an offer price of 74.813 to yield 24 percent, according to J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. prices.

Deposit Outflow

Argentina's banks, both government-owned and private, have a total $80 billion in deposits. Standard & Poor's analyst Carina Lopez said the banks can afford to lose another as much as 25 percent more in deposits.

``The danger zone is when deposits fall to between $50 billion and $60 billion,'' she said.

A run on deposits would leave the banks, the main buyers of government debt and chief lenders to companies, too strained to support the economy, already in recession.

Cavallo, in a speech Wednesday night, reiterated the government would avoid a devaluation and default.

Yet evidence is growing that the currency system, which requires that every peso be backed by dollars or gold at the central bank, may not hold.

Reserves Fall

Central bank cash and gold reserves have fallen below the supply of pesos, including repurchase agreements, or repos, that the central bank uses to supply cash to banks. An imbalance of up to 33 percent can be backed by government bonds.

The Buenos Aires province already has opted its own currency, the patacon, and Argentines are finding it increasingly difficult to find dollars. Only the state-owned bank offers dollars at a rate of one-to-one and several of its branches regularly run out the U.S. currency.

Susan Bonfiglio, a 49-year-old administrative assistant in a financial services company, is skeptical the government will stave off devaluation and default. Still, she's holding out hope, opting to leave her 400 peso savings at state-owned Banco de la Nacion.

Tannehill

(08/10/2001; 13:04:48 MDT - Msg ID: 59339)

Sir Hill Billy Mitchell @ (8/10/01; 06:38:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 59323)

You asked:"BernzOmatic" silver solder... Any one out there know exactly how many troy ounces of pure silver is in a 3-ounce roll of this stuff?

I suspect you have the 4% stuff, so not much. For a more definitive answer ask you question at this link.

http://www.bernzomatic.com/contact.htm

That's all from Tannehill

Old Yeller

(08/10/2001; 13:19:22 MDT - Msg ID: 59340)

Checkmate for Greenie

http://www.ntrs.com/library/econ_research/daily/us/010809.html
Interesting times indeed.Especially if one is a gold advocate.It's been a long time watching this silly cycle play out.Yep,this time it's different,alright.

Thanks to bearlysurviving for the link.

USAGOLD

(08/10/2001; 15:54:33 MDT - Msg ID: 59341)

Something to contemplate. . ..

How bad is bad?

How good is good?

How high is high?

Consider:

In 1913 you could buy an ounce of gold in Germany for about 80 marks.

In 1924, a little over a decade later, you could buy an ounce of gold for 60,000,000,000,000 marks -- that's 60 trillion.

And at the time, you would have rather had the ounce of gold than the 60 trillion marks.

site steward

(08/10/2001; 16:14:01 MDT - Msg ID: 59342)

Here's a brief overview of the German hyperinflation that MK mentioned

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/nightmare.htmlThis also includes the nifty graphic I assembled many months ago. Wow, we're a multimedia organization! And the phones work, too!

I can almost see FoxNews looking anxiously over their shoulder...

site steward

(08/10/2001; 16:31:04 MDT - Msg ID: 59343)

Hey, wait a minute, MK...

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/nightmare.html
With a few futures contracts held with the right timing as the German financial world was falling you pieces, you could have leveraged that 60 TRIL into a helluva lot more.

Now THAT'S a FIRE!!

(Unless they pay you off with one note.)

Black Blade

(08/10/2001; 17:18:21 MDT - Msg ID: 59344)

U.S. firms struggle for steady flow of natural gas

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_PrintFriendly&c=Article&cid=997355649389
Gas wells in U.S. being depleted at increasing rate

Snippit:

In the United States, 50 per cent more gas wells are expected to be drilled this year than in 2000. Strong prices and stronger demand underpin much of this activity, but there is another reason: Gas wells are being depleted ever faster, pitting industry against nature in a struggle to maintain a steady flow. ''We'll need tons and tons of these to help dig our country out of the mess we're in,'' Anadarko chief executive Bob Allison said of the region in East Texas where his company is sinking about 100 wells a year. The ''mess'' refers to the 23 per cent annual decline in U.S. base production, up significantly from 1990, when the output from existing wells shrank only 16 per cent a year.

''We're on a treadmill that's making us go faster and faster just to stay even,'' said Skip Horvath, president of the Natural Gas Supply Association. Last year there were 16,000 new gas wells drilled, up nearly 60 per cent from 10,400 drilled in 1999. But output only rose about two per cent over the same period, according to estimates from the U.S. Energy Department. The industry is on pace to add 24,000 wells by the end of the year, with only a marginal uptick expected in production. ''But you've got to drill three wells ... to get the equivalent of one well found three or four years ago.''

Black Blade: The media has just begun to wake up to the fact that the energy crisis is here to stay. They do spin the lower energy prices (from a very short spike to $10.00 Mbtu in December). Prices will be higher than average and will go much higher as the industry cannot produce enough NG. Over 300 new NG-power plants are scheduled to come online by 2006. There are no more drill rigs and no one builds them anymore. In spite of a doubling of drill rigs since 1998, there is only a mere 2% increase in production. And if fuel cell technology becomes viable - look out as the hydrogen is expected to come from NG. We have an energy crisis of epic proportions in the making in spite of a deepening global recession. Time to go for the gold so to speak. Gold and silver portfolio insurance is becoming an obvious addition to one's holdings. Other items to get are a few months cash supply, fuel, nonperishable food and drinking water for unexpected events such as unemployment, natural disaster, etc. At least you will sleep better at night.

Good Article!

Black Blade

(08/10/2001; 17:28:23 MDT - Msg ID: 59345)

Oil Up on West's Greater OPEC Reliance

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010810/bs/markets_oil_dc_12.html
Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed strongly on Friday after the West's energy watchdog made a big upwards revision in demand for OPEC oil this year and next. Escalating violence in the Middle East also lent support, as did evidence that Kuwait will slice September deliveries in line with OPEC's forthcoming production cut, brokers said. London futures for benchmark Brent Blend crude oil delivered in September climbed 30 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $25.98 per barrel. The International Energy Agency, which protects the interests of oil consuming countries against the OPEC oil cartel, made big upwards revisions in global oil demand forecasts for this year and next in its monthly oil market report published Friday.

Black Blade: The Horseman Cometh! Energy demand is to continue to rise. It is "Cheap Oil" and "Cheap Energy" that fuels the Bull Markets. Without a steady and secure supply of "Cheap Energy," the result is recession. This time we could slide over the edge into the abyss. Time to get a "Golden Lifeboat" to navigate through these stormy seas - a coming economic storm - "The Perfect Storm."

Netking

(08/10/2001; 17:45:02 MDT - Msg ID: 59346)

Auspec etc

McAgspec(59337)Re: Silver(what else, grin!).

Do you think Sir that move was significant or a minor retracement & profit taking?

I think we might've seen "THE" bottom this last week at around $4.10 spot . . . just TOO MANY bullish factors emerging Mc for the paper pushers to push lower, thoughts anyone?(member of 'to the moon' club)

site steward

(08/10/2001; 17:59:48 MDT - Msg ID: 59347)

The reason you need gold: "Dollar tumble risks scaring overseas investors"

http://www.brecorder.com/story/000000/200108/20010811/200108110207.shtml?Top~StoriesFrom the URL cited above:

LONDON : Growing speculation the dollar may have ended its six-year bull run is unnerving overseas investors in US stocks and bonds, where a rising dollar exchange rate has long underwritten those assets for foreigners. (J)uicy returns on US assets from a then booming economy were enhanced by a steady grind higher in the dollar in a "virtuous circle" for overseas fund managers.

But the recent sharp slowdown in both the domestic and global economy has raised questions as to whether a strong dollar is still sustainable or even appropriate.

"Any perception the dollar could crash would send overseas investors bailing out of US assets, creating a vicious downward spiral for the dollar," said Steve Cleal, head of balanced funds at Morley Fund Management in London.
--------

The Rueters article concludes by quoting a chief economist, "If foreign investors' appetite for dollar-denominated assets were to diminish, the result could be a sharp plunge in the value of the dollar - and subsequent potential havoc in the US bond and equity markets."

You know what you need to do. The only thing left for you to decide is when, and how much. Nobody is going to do this for you, but Centennial is willing to help if you call.

Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD

(08/10/2001; 18:05:48 MDT - Msg ID: 59348)

Hard assets... Easy access!

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

Gold Today!

Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

R Powell

(08/10/2001; 18:50:21 MDT - Msg ID: 59349)

Netking/Auspec/Silver watchers

Silver still looking for a bottom? It fell enough to reach my offered price on a July 2003 call. Scary though, it's value is all time value.
My copy of The Silver Institute's World Silver Survey came in today's mail. I'm surprised at how quickly it arrived. $95 for 84 pages. There were a few years of my college adventure when $95 was more than I spent on a year's worth of books. I majored in Medieval History which explains, in part, why I pour concrete for a living.
Anyway, I had decided to continue a scale down buying program in options and Silver Eagle coins if POS continued down. If the 84 page Survey 2001 doesn't convince me otherwise, I'll buy again at around the $3.90 level.
Have just started reading the Survey. Like most commodities, it starts with supply and demand and lists "Implied Net Disinvestment of 102.0 million ounces to account for the difference in supply/demand for year 2000.
That is, 102.0 million had to be added to supply to equate with the 946.3 million of known demand.
I need to study more and will report if I find anything newsworthy. Silver going down?? Do we buy the dips!?
Happy weekend
Rich

Tree in the Forest

(08/10/2001; 19:07:16 MDT - Msg ID: 59350)

BR549

I agree with your post #59306. Trail Guide has seemingly clarified his comment of several months ago re: 50 cent silver. As I understand him, he really doesn't mean that silver will see 50 cents per ounce. Just that if silver does not respond to a gold move and continues sideways, the resulting inflation from a dollar crash would send silver to a 50 cent value compared to what it was worth before the dollar tanked. In other words, $5.00 worth of 90% deflated dollars. While silver might eventually take off nicely, there would have been an opportunity cost for being in silver rather than gold. Originally, based on my Comex default scenario, I had thought that there might be an opportunity to take profits in silver and transfer them to gold. Now this is looking more and more unlikely. However, there might be a chance to do the opposite; take profits in gold and move them into silver. Time will tell.

Tree in the Forest

(08/10/2001; 19:11:53 MDT - Msg ID: 59351)

Another item that won't move gold; and one that might

I have been forced to re-think my predictions made several months ago. Last March, I assumed that silver and gold would be liberated via Comex default in June and July. It seemed to me that a Tocom style default might be the trigger to get gold and silver going. This has not happened. While it still might, I am thinking that this is now less likely. There was an opportunity for this in June-July but the warehouse stock of gold and silver have not changed a whit in several months. My thinking now is that it will be a political decision that will set things off perhaps by a drop in the dollar and/or a stock market crash. Another item can now be added to my list of things (generated a few weeks ago) that will not make gold go: Comex default.

But there is another item that I have not discussed that could mean gold's release, a significant event this week that is off most people's radar screens. Beesting originally alluded to the possibility of a 30 year work out period after Nixon closed the gold window. In thinking about his for several months I came to the conclusion that this may well be related to Treasury securities.

The longest Treasury is of course the 30 year long bond. It seems to me that such bonds issued before August 15, 1971 almost certainly could be settled in gold; current bonds are probably cash settlement. I don't know the last issue date of these gold bonds but certainly the last of them will mature on or prior to August 14, 2001. I can easily see an "understanding" existing between the US and Rothschild. He keeps the POG down, we pay his bonds in gold as promised. August 14 is next Tuesday. Once Rothschild has the last of his gold, the need to keep POG under lock and key is removed. Gold can go free. Thus the Russian prediction of a dollar crash on Aug 19th is quite plausible. This is the reason that I had some confidence in predicting that gold would move in the July-August timeframe.

Tree in the Forest

(08/10/2001; 19:33:46 MDT - Msg ID: 59352)

silver vs gold

Many people, myself included have wanted to invest in precious metals on a budget; we chose silver as our primary vehicle. This may be a mistake.

It may be the exact same mistake that people make when investing in penny stocks. "Look! I've got ten thousand shares!" But the question is, will your ten thousand shares of that inexpensive stock, outperform the one share you could have bought of Berkshire-Hathaway? Answer: quite possibly not. Some of the best stocks are also the most expensive. Thus, one ounce of gold at $275 could outperform $275 worth of silver.

How could this happen? Well, if gold and silver are not to be released by Comex default, it may be that only gold will be released for reasons I have stated below. Silver could remain a prisoner. Gold would thus be free to perform in a dollar meltdown, while silver would remain little changed. Even if silver doubled, it would not outperform gold that tripled. We simply don't know when silver will be released. It could be many months. In the meantime, you might have greatly increased your money in gold. Then sold some gold to buy much more silver than you ever could have when the time was right for silver to go. This is my current thinking. But it's your money so you must decide.

Netking

(08/10/2001; 19:33:58 MDT - Msg ID: 59353)

Rich - WSS

Thanks Rich, any info you want to pass on from your WSS would be valuable.

Years ago I heard a classic Zig Ziglar statement: "If your outgo exceeds your income, your upkeep will be your downfall!" . . . aka The 1990-2001+ Silver Market.

You cannot as a consumer (of anything) keep taking more from the pot than what you put in . . . not forever that is. . .

I believe this last week was significant price wise. I'm talking with my "better half" about purchasing some more physical and another call or two.(INVHO)

MarkeTalk

(08/10/2001; 19:41:20 MDT - Msg ID: 59354)

Are you from Missouri?

I have discovered a new contrarian indicator: those clients of here at Centennial who know in their hearts it is time to buy gold but still are led astray by the siren song of CNBC, Wall Street Journal et al. They tell me that they want to see gold running away to the upside, but yet hope to buy it at the price before the big move occurs. Sound ridiculous? It is a variation on the theme of "Show me--I am from Missouri."

Well, "Missouri", here is list of items to contemplate. First of all, this week presented us with fresh violence in Israel (15 dead and 100 injured in a suicide bomb attack) and the threat of further escalation to all-out war with Iraq and Syria. Secondly, today's papers are filled with renewed concern about Argentina defaulting on its $130 billion debt, which would surely crash the world's financial system. Thirdly, Big Al Greenspan added another $25 billion to the money stock this week, hoping no one (especially the watchdogs of inflation) would notice. Fourthly, the economy continues to descend into the abyss with more layoffs being added to the "Bone Pile." Need I go on?

You know, stock market veteran Joe Granville used to say that a new bull market would climb a wall of worry in its initial stages despite the timid and scornerful. Then as the bull market accelerated higher, it would win over those skeptics. Then finally, the herd (i.e. public) would participate and push the market beyond any rational expectations. We saw this very thing happen in the Nasdaq over the last seven years. Gold in now in the initial stages of a massive bull market but only the wise and perspicacious, those with a sense of history and values, are buying. As gold moves above $300 per ounce, the "doubting Thomases" will begin to change their views. Finally, as gold accelerates to over $400 per ounce, the trend-following herd (i.e. public) will come thundering in to buy at any price.

The bottom line here: I hope that this short post will move some present and future Centennial clients to stop procrastinating and get aboard the gold ship before it leaves the harbor. Being from Missouri is commendable for a lots of things in life, but buying gold is unfortunately not one of them.

auspec

(08/10/2001; 19:44:48 MDT - Msg ID: 59355)

Netking Gol{D} & Rich Silver

Will quote from info from David Morgan's Silver investor several weeks ago. DM received this letter.
"I don't know if you know of this or not, but a few BIG forecasters have predicted a huge bull market in the metals, particularly silver, about to begin sometime between now and Oct-Nov. I'm talking particularly about Bob Prechter of Elliot Wave Theory and Mr. Flannigan of Past Present Futures newsletter. Both of them are telling their subscribers to get ready to invest large amounts in silver. They are waiting until silver reaches the $4.10 to $4.15 area, WASHOUT territory- the classic indication of a bottom. I believe there are a lot of major players waiting to put in large amounts of money WHEN SILVER TESTS THE $4.10-$4.15 AREA {considered the 4 year low)."
"Are you aware that in Feb 01 Prechtor sent out letters telling everyone to change their mindset about silver because a HUGE opportunity would be presenting itself in the fall." END

Comments: Rich says "Do we buy the dips?" My advice is to wait and buy the last dip {snicker}! Actually, we cannot know the last dip, but this one feels pretty good. Being sated in physical and pennystock silver plays with options, today dipped back into that wonderful institution known as COMEX {or CRIMEX}, picking up Dec silver at $4.16. Will take my chances there.
Now as far as the prognosticators of .50c silver, I do not know how one can think this way w/o believing there are mega amounts of unknown above ground silver available to impact the market {black silver}. You don't believe in the existence of black silver? Then the commodity cycle will play out in full, no other way out of this mess. Larry Edelson of Weiss connection says we're heading for $2 silver, but he believes or at least claims to believe there are large quantities of silver overhanging the market. Who in their right mind, should this silver exist, would want to try to get thhe lowest possible price for their wares? Maybe the British {HaHa}.I priced VG Morgan and Peace dollars today, approx 8.16 and 7.92 respectively. they have held up fairly well in the face of a significant fall in POS this year. Don't know about the bags.
On the silver trail, good to have some company.
McAgboy

Netking

(08/10/2001; 21:00:03 MDT - Msg ID: 59356)

Auspec

A . . . posted that letter at K2 last night, great minds think alike(or "fools seldom differ"! Martin & Larry chime)

Regardless of the actual market timing IF enough people declared "It's the bottom!" and bought physical silver because it is at 5,000 year inflation adjusted lows . . . that tiny market would ignite anyway yes.

All we need is another Hunt, Berkshire etc, one spark(hopefully without loss of life yes)

R Powell

(08/10/2001; 21:15:56 MDT - Msg ID: 59357)

Where is MoutainGold?

Andrus sommerselg (59285), thanks for the info on the availability of 100 ounce bars. All the speculation of supply is confirmed or denied by the buying process.
Solomon Weaver (59311) asked, "Hey what ever happened to MoutainGold?" Good question, lost on the golfcourse? You out there MoutainGold?? Solomon mentioned him in reference to chart reading of NEM. What does your TA chart study predict now for equities, U.S. dollar, gold and silver???
Auspec, does Larry Edelson give any references to any verification of the large silver supply he believes exist?
Does he say who, where or how much?
Also, you will tell us, old buddy, which dip is the last, won't you? If the Survey doesn't dissuade me, I'll try to buy as many as come our way as long as I'm able and our research keeps telling us silver is grossly undervalued. Opinions like Edelson's need looking into, I believe. What does he know that we don't and where is he getting his information?
So many questions.
Thanks to CPM for allowing silver talk on the gold forum. I have bought Silver Eagles from M.K. and am awaiting another shipment now. Easily done with one phone call and, of course, the check in the mail.
Thanks
Rich

Cavan Man

(08/10/2001; 21:21:01 MDT - Msg ID: 59358)

Marke Talk

Hey, I'm from Missouri and I am one of your customers. Furthermore, there is a reason why I find your firm listed in the Yellow Pages here yes? I am sure you know that some of your best customer s and prospects are from this part of the US. Now, don't take me for geocentric because, I am definitely not. I just wanted to take this opportunity to say that since we are from the "Show Me" state; by association with that motto; we do not as a general rule believe in moon cycles and sun cycles and star gazing and other esoteric astrologica. Kind regards...(a customer from MO.)

Black Blade

(08/10/2001; 21:39:57 MDT - Msg ID: 59359)

Coal-bed methane tapped to help ease energy shortage

http://www.vancouversun.com/newsite/business/010809/5060851.html
Snippit:

Responding to a rising demand for power sources, energy companies in Canada and the U.S. are turning their roughnecks loose on potential pools of coal-bed methane, a type of natural gas trapped in the seams of coal fields. The state of Wyoming expects the number of coal-bed methane wells there to grow eightfold to 70,000 between this year and 2010. Consumption of natural gas, the cleanest-burning fossil fuel, is expected to increase in the U.S. by more than 50 per cent during the next two decades, according to U.S. President George W. Bush's energy plan released in May.

Nearly every new power plant burns gas, which pollutes less than coal or oil, and shortages of the fuel drove prices to record levels in December. To avert a shortage, the administration is pushing to open more federal land for drilling. The boom is occurring even as half of the land in Wyoming remains off limits, while the U.S. Bureau of Land Management studies increasing industrial access.

Black Blade: Still this is not enough and barely addresses the energy crisis. This boom will result in more drilling and yet there are not enough drill rigs to even begin to bring on necessary supply. Many of the most likely targets for CBM remain off-limits and drilling permits are routinely held up by "held-over" bureaucrats from the last administration. CBN is what could be classified as a nonconventional hydrocarbon. However, CBM is becoming extremely important as other natural gas supplies dry up. The struggle to address the energy crisis will only deteriorate and the economy along with it. This Horseman is slowly but surely approaching (The Slow Burn). PM insurance looks more important than ever.

BR549

(08/10/2001; 22:20:29 MDT - Msg ID: 59360)

Gold vs. Silver

Tree in the Forest (#:59350)

I am new to the site so I missed Trail Guide's $.50 silver scenario. There is so much here to catch up on. Great comments in re: to silver being priced in relative deflated dollars to the price of gold. My opinion is that the rest of the world is going to gang up and drive the dollar away from being the world's standard currency, which of course will make gold go through the roof. I do not know whether this will have a positive correlation to the price of silver or not. Your theory of taking gold profits and then moving into silver may be the way to go.

The Russians moving their populace to value-based currency us a sure sign that they want to unload their citizens stash of greenbacks. If they can get them to trade for gold coins, then they can dump them on the world market, accelerating the FRN's demise. I prefer gold over silver (although I own both) because it makes my pulse race more when I fondle it.

Enjoyed your posts and can't wait to see what happens next week.

Black Blade

(08/10/2001; 22:25:59 MDT - Msg ID: 59361)

The Mystery Of Slobodan's Gold

http://www.sky.com/skynews/storytemplate/storytoppic/0%2C%2C30200-1025679%2C00.html
Snippit:

"On the road from Nis there is a hill called the Hollow Rock. On the top nature has carved out a heart shaped hole and in that hole the Byzantine Emperor Vasillis hid gold and covered it with boulders." Well, writes Sky's Foreign Affairs Editor Tim Marshall, it's a good story, but would you divert your army's resources to finding the hidden treasure? Slobodan Milosevic would.

Black Blade: Barbarous relic? Funny story at the link.

Black Blade

(08/10/2001; 22:41:34 MDT - Msg ID: 59362)

Argentina Seeks New IMF Financing as Reserves Fall

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Bond%20Market%20World&tp=ad_uknews&T=news_storypage99.ht&ad=world_bonds&s=AO3LZOBSvQXJnZW50
Snippit:

New York, Aug. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Argentina's dollar and gold reserves have slipped below the supply of pesos, undermining the decade-old currency system the country adopted to inspire confidence it won't print money to pay debts. The currency board set up in 1991, which requires Argentina to back every peso with dollars or gold, allows some flexibility. Still, the shortfall puts pressure on the government, which is struggling to avoid default on $130 billion of debt, to stem an outflow of deposits and line up more financing.

To cover the wave of withdrawals, the central bank has increased the amount of cash it provides to banks through repurchase agreements, or repos, which are backed by government debt. Cash and gold reserves fell about 25 percent in less than six weeks to total $15.4 billion on Monday, according to the most recent central bank figures available.

The withdrawals have put Argentina's currency system at risk. For the system to work, all the pesos in circulation must be backed by dollars or gold in the central bank's vaults. On Friday and Monday, central bank reserves dipped below the amount of pesos. The imbalance of up to 33 percent can be backed by government bonds. If withdrawals continue and reserves keep falling, Argentina's currency system will be at risk, economists said. Since World II, no such system -- used now also by Bulgaria, Estonia, and other countries -- ever has collapsed.

Black Blade: Argentines run on the banks? They could use some gold insurance I think. Now that the IMF is sticking their nose into this mess - after saying that they wouldn't - the austerity measure they will impose could possibly spark another revolution.

Canuck

(08/11/2001; 05:53:43 MDT - Msg ID: 59363)

@ BB & all

I saw an article in the Globe and Mail this week for General Motors. They have developed a new fuel cell for home generated electricity. It is of course powered by natural gas. I've been watching the developments of the fuel cell companies to some degree (with regards to fuel cell powered cars). The big 3 seem to have the 2003-2006 window in mind for this next generation of vehicle.

I've been reading your spendid notes for a long time, I have duly noted your "natural gas is the sleeper" quote.
It seems to me that a great deal of 'energy crisis management' is being placed upon the infinite availability of NG. A pile of eggs are being placed into the 'natural gas basket', yes?

How do you feel about 'energy' trusts? I put a couple of dollars into a 12 year old trust just to see where it goes.
The dividend just seems to be too good to pass on. Now I'm thinking of a NG play. I'm looking at AEC, AXL, TLM, HTR and CNQ. (all on TSE300) I am ignorant of the US majors.

Any that you 'like'?

BTW, did you get a chance to read the 2 'dieoff.com' articles? The 2006-2008 'energy crossovers' are astonishing.
The mild energy crisis currently underway will pale in comparison to what we face in a few years. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that the energy situation is a 'springboard' to POG. It is one thing that I am certain of.

There will be fear and tears in a few years.

Thanks. View Yesterday's Discussion.

canamami

(08/11/2001; 08:22:18 MDT - Msg ID: 59364)

Idle Musings

Re Argentina. The peso must be backed by dollar and gold reserves (Note: I thought Argentina sold its gold). The peso is linked to the dollar. The system is out of whack because the dollar is overvalued, and also because it is unwise to link your currency to another country's economy.
Would it not have been wiser to replace dollar "backing" with IMF SDR backing? The non-dollar component would prevent the SDR from being as overvalued as the dollar plus more stable long-term, with fewer strains on the Argentine economy. This would be acceptable to the IMF also, one would think.

Re wealth effect. Would it not be better to allow gold to rise, by stopping the manipulation? Gold would rise against all currencies, not just the dollar, so the optics would not be all bad for the dollar. Private holders of gold would be "wealthier" than present. Hence, the gold wealth effect could temper the current decline in the equities markets, and assist the economic turnaround.

site steward

(08/11/2001; 10:04:24 MDT - Msg ID: 59365)

For canamami

Argentina is not COMPLETELY out of gold, having about 10,000 ounces. But to put this amount into perspective, I think Centennial might have a few clients with this much gold -- great for an affluent family, but a dismal amount for a whole country of Argentina's size.

Regarding your second paragraph: you have precisely hit the mark... a picture of the future. The international political will is behind this.

BR549

(08/11/2001; 10:12:03 MDT - Msg ID: 59366)

1929 all over again

http://www.aliveness.com/kangaroo/Events1920s.htmBuena Fe (msg#: 59338)
Preaching to the choir

Your quote about what is currently happening in Argentina: "Depositors are pulling an average $300 million a day from Argentina's banks and hoarding dollars at home, putting the country's decade-old currency system at risk. If it fails, economists said, the government may have no choice but to devalue and default on its debt."

What happened before the Great Depression: "It is a fact of economics that all recessions are preceded by a glut of goods on the market, and this was especially true before the stock market crash of '29. Supply was everywhere; demand nowhere. Why? Because a growing number of poor people chose to hoard their money rather than spend it. This is a rational anti-poverty strategy for individuals, but it has unintended and damaging consequences for the group." (see link)

What is happening in the US today? Hoard your gold and silver, your gonna need it.

auspec

(08/11/2001; 10:58:41 MDT - Msg ID: 59367)

Rich

Regarding your questions about Larry Edelson and his $2 POS prediction, I can only elucidate as far as my memory serves me in regards to being a Weiss Safe Money Report subscriber around 2 years ago. Edelson has an extensive background in precious metals so he is clearly no novice. He supposedly has contacts that informs him of massive amounts of silver available in places like Dubai as well as the Orient if memory serves me well. There is NO substantiation, simply his word, at least at that time period. As I have said several times in regards to Edelson, they also called for $200 POG the year of the WA when gold went to $330+. Weiss is a doomster that is ALWAYS calling for the sky to fall, but also with information that is often at least somewhat credible. Sensationalism sells, you know.
Again, who are the morons intent upon getting the lowest possible price [down to $2] for the last remaining above ground silver surplus? If the silver does exist, and it has not been substantiated as existing, it makes little sense to dispense of it in this manner. On the other hand, if it is in the hands of the banksters and the Anglo-American anti gold and silver crowd, there is much further damage they could do with it. Maybe even square their books before going long? How about it Larry, you tight with GS, AG, USTreasury and British elitists?
Whereever the POS bottom is we must constantly remember what WILL happen from that point on. It's called a reversal of interests and WE will be onside with the insiders. They have NO chance of taking silver to $2 and keeping it there long term, and will not miss the opportunity to make money as silver goes in the opposite direction. This is simply what and who manipulators are! What good does it do the Anglo's and Buttock Golds to vulturize their neighbors properties if they don't intend to make hay out of it in the long run? Please re-read that question and make sure it settles in fully!
Regards,
auspec

Black Blade

(08/11/2001; 11:03:28 MDT - Msg ID: 59368)

Argentine Gold

I know that Argentina sold off a lot of their gold reserves. I wonder if the gold Argentinos that MK had for sale here not long ago were part of that. I suppose that there are no more of those available is there? I got some of the gold Uruguay 5 peso coins. I read the article and I too was surprised at the statement that Argentines could exchange their pesos for USD or Gold. I somehow doubt that there is enough gold for exchange and now with the run on the banks...

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(08/11/2001; 11:06:45 MDT - Msg ID: 59369)

RE: Canuck - Energy Trusts, Growing Energy Crisis, etc.

Canuck,

I don't make stock recommendations. I have stated on occasion what I do hold in order to disclose my position to "clear the air." First many don't understand what energy trusts are. Sometimes large energy corporations will bundle some holdings such as a particular property (usually a mature petroleum producing property) and spin it off as a separate holding or as an energy trust. There are oil, energy, and natural gas trusts and some do pay very good dividends. In a way they are like REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts). They pass through a large portion of earnings through to unit trust holders. The danger is that these tend to be older or marginal producing fields. If the management has a good record and if energy prices continue to rise, the pass through earnings can be phenomenal. On the other hand if a field is nearly depleted and output is in serious decline - so are the pass through earnings (or dividends). One should do their due diligence and really study each one before investing. I like several energy trusts and I do hold some. For example I now hold SJT as a play on NG, BPT as a play on oil, and DOM as a play on both (all have good dividends). I have several others as well, but you get the picture. I am unfamiliar with the Canadian trusts. As I said, really look these trusts over with a strong magnifying glass and see what the depletion rates are, the background of management, reserves, etc.

You are right about fuel cell technology. The additional pressure on natural gas from fuel cell technology along with over 300 new natural gas-fired power plants coming online by 2006 and the inability to increase natural gas production makes natural gas the real "energy sleeper." Natural gas is the fuel of choice as it is clean burning and has virtually no particulate or very little emissions pollution. Natural gas has become the fuel of choice as coal and oil are "dirty fuels" and power companies are allowed a limited number of "carbon credits" to operate. Once these carbon credits are used up the power plants must close down or purchase more carbon credits on the commodities market (they can trade like commodities). Under the current political situation there is not much choice for energy companies to do anything but place their energy eggs in the "natural gas basket."

Energy overall is what drives the economy. It is "Cheap Energy" that powers the Bull Markets. The Bull markets came to an end and even slipped into recession when oil, natural gas, and energy costs increased from the rock bottom prices of 1998. There is no capacity to increase natural gas as drill rigs are in short supply and most likely productive targets are off-limits, oil production is controlled by OPEC and a few independents who are content to "go along" and production is nearly maxed out, refining capacity is severely limited, the energy grid is decaying and the infrastructure has not been increased or upgraded in decades, demand still grows in many regions, energy costs are much higher (2 to 3 times) than in recent memory, and power blackouts and warnings are common place. Whew! Add all that up and it equals a real energy problem coming at us. That light at the end of the tunnel is an oncoming train!

We can only lookout for ourselves as no one else will do it for us. For me that means very selective investments, gold and silver (bullion and numismatic) for portfolio insurance, a food and water supply for basic needs, well stocked first aid kit, firearms and ammo for hunting, etc. When the energy crisis hits full force I expect Gold and Silver prices to skyrocket although I look at PMs as important portfolio insurance rather than an investment. That does not mean that PMs can't be an amazing investment under the right conditions. I look at PMs as insurance because if currency is failing why would one want to exchange PMs for a failing currency? On the other hand selling some to cover payments in "fixed" dollars such as loans, etc. could be a bonus. Anyway, that's my take on it. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(08/11/2001; 11:42:48 MDT - Msg ID: 59370)

History Channel - Gold Series

http://www.historychannel.com/gold/frame.html
The History Channel will have a special series on gold and the impact of gold on history. Details at the link.

Black Blade

(08/11/2001; 12:13:53 MDT - Msg ID: 59371)

Calif. May Have Costly Energy Glut

Snippit:

LOS ANGELES (AP) - California may have a costly glut of electricity through 2004 because of the long-term power contracts it signed to end the current crunch, the Los Angeles Times reported Saturday. Predicting rising demand, California signed long-term contracts earlier this year with private energy suppliers to buy power at fixed prices. But last month, the state lost $46 million when cool weather reduced electrical demand and prompted officials to sell power bought at high prices for a loss. If current rates continue, the state could lose $500 million in the next year alone by selling off surplus electricity at a loss, according to a Times analysis. The newspaper reviewed the state's power purchases and projections over the next several years but noted that weather, the economy and other factors could change the supply-and-demand balance.

Black Blade: The Grasshoppers can never seem to get it right. Regulation has not been kind to the Grasshoppers. Central Planning Marxist style has been a disaster. Now Kommissar "Red" Davis is taking the heat once again. It just may work out though as energy prices could rise much higher going forward. However, "Buy High - Sell Low" doesn't sound like much of a financial plan. Energy prices in the People's Republik of Kalifornia are likely to remain high. Can't be good for Silicon Valley either.

Leigh

(08/11/2001; 12:35:00 MDT - Msg ID: 59372)

Just Wonderin'

August 19th, the day of the big dollar crash, is a Sunday. How can the dollar crash on a Sunday?

Black Blade

(08/11/2001; 12:35:27 MDT - Msg ID: 59373)

Slow Economy Rewrites Stock Market Rules

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010811/business_markets_stocks_jobcuts_dc.html
Lessons from the "Bone Pile"

Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Gone are the days when announcements of job cuts sent stock holders jumping for joy and share prices soaring. These days, layoffs push stocks under water as investors see the cuts as a last-ditch attempt to pump up corporate profits amid a global economic slowdown. It's the latest sign that the lagging U.S. economy has rewritten the rules of the stock market.

The shift in the market's response to job cuts stems from the slumping economy. Job losses are accelerating as gains in gross domestic product slow. GDP is a key measure of economic health and recently showed a mere 0.7 percent annual rate gain. That's the slowest growth rate since 1991, when the United States was mired in a recession. Slowing economic growth hinders sales of products, which forces companies to cut back on production. Thus, fewer workers are needed. And, as layoffs continue -- 770,000 job cuts have been announced by U.S. companies in the past six months, according to outplacement firm, Challenger, Gray & Christmas -- consumers become worried they, too, may lose their jobs. They then cut back on spending, cutting into product demand even more.

``Generally, layoffs raise stock prices because they are considered a sign of discipline by management -- that it will be responsive to financial realities,'' said James Walsh, author of ``Rightful Termination,'' which examines hiring and firing strategies. ``But during concern about a general economic slowdown, the effect is reversed. Layoffs signal a struggling economy and show that even responsive management can't avoid the problem.''

Black Blade: Meanwhile the "Bone Pile" grows ever higher and the stench grows ever stronger. This recession could get very bad as investors realize that they are not getting a return on investment or worse - are really losing wealth and worry as their 401K's and IRA's flounder and shrink. They also look about nervously as they see their neighbors, friends, and relatives lose their jobs or have to take lower paying and even menial jobs. They are less inclined to spend and may even save those IRS rebate checks. This will get very "Interesting" before it's all over.

BR549

(08/11/2001; 12:51:00 MDT - Msg ID: 59374)

Leigh (msg#: 59372)

"August 19th, the day of the big dollar crash, is a Sunday. How can the dollar crash on a Sunday?"

Perhaps the foreign markets begin trading at 9-10:00 PM for their Monday trading sessions?

Leigh

(08/11/2001; 13:08:12 MDT - Msg ID: 59375)

BR549

But over in Asia it would already be August 20th. And it would only be a few hours until August 20th here too.

Whoever is putting out this rumor either has the date wrong, or they intend to make this "crash" happen VERY rapidly! Can you imagine all your neighbors waking up Monday and turning on the news to hear the dollar collapsed while they were sleeping?

uponroof

(08/11/2001; 14:42:39 MDT - Msg ID: 59376)

Austrailian Miner covering?

From 'The American Advisor': "Barclay's Bank has reported today (Friday) that a very large Austrailian Miner has been buying back it's hedge book".
END-

Wasn't ABX sniffing around down under recently? (Normandy) Could a miner be unloading debt as part of a prearranged deal with ABX? Perhaps Franco Nevada owning 30% of Normandy is involved somehow?

Also...

Delta Gold (ASX:DGD) and Goldfields Ltd. (ASX:GLD) have been talking merger lately in an effort to avoid a hostile takeover from the likes of ABX or AU or PDG. Combining assets also allows Delta and Goldfields to persue local miner WMC. The three would then have an annual output of 1.9 mil oz. second only to Normandy who is at 3 mil.

Austrailia is notorious for hedging. If this develops into a trend, as this new merger climate seems to include a mandatory first step 'hedge reduction', I'm all for it. However, it's after the merger is over, and these new conglomerates begin again to 'hedge for profit', that worries me. Could we soon be facing such total control of POG, from these hedged mega producers, that rivals even Central Bankers?

If AU or ABX continues to increase reserves and production capacities, while non hedged producers just hang on, lookout! It will not come down to what the conglomerate's commom shareholders vote and demand, but rather what the conglomerate's political connections demand. Just as hedged producers are now increasing their position in this distressed industry, I suspect their obligations to those in 'friendly' gummint places is also proportionately increasing.

Also, now that the threat of strike is over for 3 more years, can we expect AU to begin eating up South African mines? Let's not forget about PDG, they are cash rich after a very good quarter and have announced they will be on a 'buying spree'.

This reminds me of major league baseball in the early seventies. The players union was, IMHO, ruining the game. The players hearts were corrupted for money. They moved from organization to organization. No loyalty to the people that cultivated them from scratch. I became interested in minor league and college ball instead. The corruption had not yet permeated those levels. Perhaps, in comparison, we have exploration and pennys to keep our interest as the majors appear they may be changing hats much more often.

lamprey_65

(08/11/2001; 14:50:59 MDT - Msg ID: 59377)

Dollar Crash Date

http://www.prudentbear.com/bearthoughts.htmAs we saw this past week with the prediction of a Tuesday crash with the productivity numbers, I'd be careful of those calling for things to happen on a specific timetable. However, from the above link:

"More than likely one day here soon, the dollar will snap badly overnight, and the orders to sell US stocks and bonds will pile up from foreigners even before New York rolls out of bed, and it will just be a matter of assessing the damage and trying to figure out where all this stuff opens up."

Netking

(08/11/2001; 15:17:33 MDT - Msg ID: 59378)

Au/Ag - Commodities Bull of the 00's

http://www.zealllc.com/commentary/commbull.htmThe above link by Adam Hamilton is worth a serious read(again).

Adam like many other analysts has wisdom, but his market timimg is more pronounced, logical & factual (IMHO)than some of the contrary analysts.

It's all good . . . the signs are that Platinum may have been the first cab off the rank, with the others (Au/Ag etc)to follow.(IMVHO) - Netking

BR549

(08/11/2001; 17:44:43 MDT - Msg ID: 59379)

The Dollar Crash

I think that most of my neighbors, especially SOME of the ones across the river (definitely not all), will never wake up.

My investment philosophy: I tend to buy gold on rumors (usually high) and sell never (or when the economy crashes, whichever comes first). I also heard Tuesday (not Monday) for the crash based upon what the Russian's were going to do to the dollar.

Can't wait to see what happens.

Netking

(08/11/2001; 18:36:18 MDT - Msg ID: 59380)

Egypt threatens show of armed force to aid Arafat

http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/news/pages/sti/2001/08/12/stifgnmid02001.html?Snippit from The Sunday-Times:
The threat of a wider Middle East conflict is growing as the Egyptian government considers sending its 3rd Armoured Army into the Sinai peninsula if Israel moves into Palestinian territories.

justamereBear

(08/11/2001; 18:52:28 MDT - Msg ID: 59381)

Leigh 59375 Black Blade Fuel cells

Leigh
I have not been following any news, so I don't know much about this rumor, just what I infer from todays postings here.

I have long posited that there WILL be a dollar crash, and that it will be blindingly fast.

However anyone who predicts specifics, such as a date are smoking the strange stuff IMHO. False rumors invariably make specific forecasts such as dates, or by how much a particular stock will go up, to make them more authoritive, and thus more believable. Sometimes there is enough belief that it actually happens. [In 1929 (early) for example].
It is my opinion that one individual, or even one country does not have the wherewithall to manipulate the USD against the wishes of the US. There is nobody quite large enough. One incident or country, or whatever, may be enough to TRIGGER a chain reaction, whereby enough others find belief, and now the US has a problem. I do think the fundamentals are in place for a USD crash, so Aug. whatever is a possibility, but not very likely, again IMHO. Personally, I am fearful of the period of Sept 8 to Nov. 11 or 12, and again from Feb 15 to Mar 15, both for a USD crash, and particularly the former for a stock market crash.

Black Blade--Fuel cells
There is some interesting work going on in pure hydrogen. Of course the fuel cells convert the nat. gas to pure H2 by stripping off the carbon molecule and dumping it, then feeding the resulting H2 to the fuel cell, which creates H2O as a byproduct. But that is like the core rate of inflation.The stripping of carbon happens in the converter, not the fuel cell. Nobody seems to mention what happens to the carbon. Our environmental friends seem to be asleep at the switch here. Hydrogen does have its' problems, principally the current cost and methods of obtaining it and transporting it. Some neat solutions appear on the horizon, but a mass solution, not in my time I think.

j'Bear

Tree in the Forest

(08/11/2001; 18:58:44 MDT - Msg ID: 59382)

auspec, Leigh

auspec: Your post # 59367 was quite correct and your characterization of Weiss/Edelson also good based on my own experiences with them.

Leigh: The August 19 date that I heard was a Russian projection based presumably on Steve Puetz/Chris Carolan solar/lunar eclipse calculations. The propensity for crashes to cluster around eclipses seems to be strong based on their research. However, these dates don't always produce crashes and the dates are usually plus or minus several days. So it's just a marker. Still, Euro markets open several hours before ours and it's just possible that by the time our markets open Monday AM the 20th, a dollar drop will be a fait accompli. TPTB likes to have several things going for them when when they want to move a market and Carolan's research is well known. It stands to reason that they would want "the stars" moving in their favor as well as a war etc.

auspec

(08/11/2001; 19:44:23 MDT - Msg ID: 59383)

TIF/ Spiral Calender

Yes, Chris Carolan's work based on his Spiral Calender is most fascinating. I studied him very closely for a few years, but found no good way to make more FRNs from the predictions. Have you followed this work a bit and or read his book?
You are exactly right, he is simply looking for turning periods where we can gain insight into market 'CHANGES', so the time period is frequently a few days before extending a few days after this LUNAR related event. It can be an eclipse or a full or new moon if my memory serves me that often accompanies/causes the change in a market. I found the work to be somewhat hit and miss, which is not exactly a criticism because we are well into the realm of 'art' combined with math/science. He knows he will miss many events, but he also knows many will fall his way. I have not followed him for 3 to 4 years likely so I don't know the upcoming dates to look for changes in the precious metals markets. If anyone has this info would greatly appreciate learning these dates. Apparently the US Dollar is approaching a window of change. So in general we would look for a sharp break in the $ somewhere between Aug 17 and Aug 21. The dollar breaking upward during this period would project a different outcome. I have a hard time believing the Ruskies are basing their $ drop on this Carolan research, it is so esoteric and so little understood. I gave up the newsletter because it was expensive, I didn't find a trading mechanism with which to make money off the advice, and ran out of patience when the gold/silver windows failed to materialize a bull market. It was certainly not because the work was not fascinating and credible.
Few of us realize the effects on the human emotion/psyche/physical being that the moon phases cause. Crime rates, birth rates and many other human factors are lunarly influenced.
Watch for the lunaticks or be a lunatic!
This moons for you!
auspec

auspec

(08/11/2001; 20:31:00 MDT - Msg ID: 59384)

FOA & Gold Mobilization

From the trail 8-6-01:

I am sure most Americans are uncomfortable at the prospect of our stores of Political Gold being shipped off to defend the dollar. Uncomfortable as this may be, unprecedented it is not. During most of the years of an active Gold Exchange Standard gold was routinely "shipped off" from nation to nation to satisfy foreign demands. Not just entirely to defend our dollar's value; the aim of these operations was, then and now, more so to keep the dollar in settlement use.

Yes, the dollar's continued use for trade settlement and the defense of that valued use was always the aim of these gold trades; but even below this is a deeper meaning to this function.

========================================

From a dollar point of view, shipping gold then, and now, was in the same context of defending one's currency on the exchange market. In the context of this use; gold was not sold as a commodity, rather it is clearly traded as an officially earmarked "good" that can further support the
"tender status" of internationally held dollars.

The psychology of "gold exchange" is more manifest in our "legal tender" function than most strive to understand. Standing aside, for a moment, from our previous discussions concerning modern fiat demand's impact on the dollars recent value; we look more closely at the logic of this "tender"
function.

============================

Local dollar currency, circulating within US borders, is given political value because of it's legal tender designation. Dollars outside our domain, while often sharing the same trading value, are not covered by that law. Even though, through protocol they are commonly accepted, they are not legal tradable money; unless they re-enter the US again.

The process of defending the dollar by shipping gold is, today as much as yesterday, an expression of maintaining political "Legal Tender" status for international clientele. Indeed, as an ongoing trade deficit in the US has become irreversibly structural to the integrity of the local economy and remained in this function for many years; the legal tender function of foreign dollar reserves comes
very much into question. It begs this suggestion: does the international dollar have any internal political force backing it's value overseas? This question can only be addressed by shipping gold in a legal "currency defending" process. END

Comments: Yes, of course, the US$ must be defended, both at home and abroad. So the US is reallocating/giving away gold to keep the US$ "in settlement use". My first thoughts are 'Western' as is my wont, "That's a little bit of gold to cover a lot of dollars outside the US." But then I look inside my yang organs and find that maybe this gold reallocated is worth considerably more than the Western paper POG of $275, certainly worth a large multiple of the oficially classified price of $42.
GATA clearly recognizes the link between the manipulated POG and the US$, the strong dollar facade and all its inherent implications and 'benefits' for US markets. I'm looking for quantification again. This time between the out of country Dollars and the relative value of somewhere near 1800 tonnes of gold, the amount that has been put up on the trading {traded} block. Can this 'minor' amount of gold reasonably bribe foreign holders of dollars to keep holding them and keep settling trade in dollars? Anyone? Who are these particular holders of dollars that can, for now, be bought off? *Middle East*? Japanese? Chinese? How long will 1800 tonnes last the dollar faction?
Gold is not supposed to be dealt w/o Congressional approval. Maybe that was when the Constitution had a country.
Comments?
auspec

annie

(08/11/2001; 20:34:11 MDT - Msg ID: 59385)

Full Moons

I knew a nurse who had worked in many nursing home environments. She said that when there was a full moon that the alzheimers patients, etc., were moved to pace the halls.

All I know is that if I, as an ancient had been told that the moon caused the tide to come in and go out, I would have just about hee hawed at that notion.

This is my first post here.

All, take care. annie

Cavan Man

(08/11/2001; 20:43:09 MDT - Msg ID: 59386)

Auspec

I think, while the game is good, there is no reason to go to the window and cash in your chips.

auspec

(08/11/2001; 21:02:45 MDT - Msg ID: 59387)

Introducing annie

Folks at USAG Forum, this is my good friend annie. Annie, these are my esteemed colleagues {whom I have never met} at this establishment. Please give annie a warm welcome!
A few hints--- She is very good with the questions and is a quick study, and a most worthy addition. Like most of us, she doesn't mind a touch of encouragement here and there.
Question? Is pacing the halls diagnostic for Alzheimers?
Welcome annie!
auspec

auspec

(08/11/2001; 21:06:28 MDT - Msg ID: 59388)

Yes, it has been quite the game!

Cavan Man

(08/11/2001; 21:07:17 MDT - Msg ID: 59389)

Hello annie

I know what you mean about moons. Everytime we have a full moon here I have this tremendous urge to go out on the patio and sing "My Wild Irish Rose" in the middle of the night. My neighbors are grateful I just brew a cup of herbal tea instead and go back to bed. You see, I'm a baritone and the song requires a tenor. Welcome annie.

Cavan Man

(08/11/2001; 21:09:39 MDT - Msg ID: 59390)

auspec

I have the most patient and understanding wife in the whole world. However, her patience is wearing thin. I'm hoping I can hold out till the end. I truly think it is starting to break up.

annie

(08/11/2001; 21:19:02 MDT - Msg ID: 59391)

Thanks for the welcome

Auspec, thanks for the introduction. and CM, thanks for the welcome. I will try to lurk without outbursts, but tend toward the impetuous. I have occasionally visited the site and been impressed at the quality of the posts here. I expect to learn a lot and will do my best to contribute what I can when I can. I hope that there is some latitude with "off-topic" posts because I'm an artist and I rarely get anywhere directly. I just appreciate the opportunity to experience the comraderie of a site such as this.

Take care, All. annie

Solomon Weaver

(08/11/2001; 21:40:13 MDT - Msg ID: 59392)

(No Subject)

Hello Annie

From Alamosa and Poor old Solomon

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/11/2001; 21:59:58 MDT - Msg ID: 59393)

annie @ # 59385

Welcome annie

Are you an accumulator?

Friends like auspec are not that easy to come by. Please feel free to speak your mind. If you do not it will be our loss. We look forward to your posts.

Very respectfully,

HBM

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/11/2001; 22:13:05 MDT - Msg ID: 59394)

Cavan Man @ # 59390

Sir Cavan Man

Just today I told my wife that I hoped that gold and silver would go up slowly. She said, "Not me, I hope it goes up soon and fast and gets it over with".

It is a sign of her impatience with the waiting game. Also we will continue to accumulate until gold and silver become over valued and she is a little wearied of taking every penny of our excess above necessitite and putting it into silver and gold. She thinks to sell when we can double our cost of accumulation. Not to worry. I know that she will not sell without a push from me. I only hope I can give her the push.

Please note that we are not talking about 30% of our accumulation, which will never be sold. When you have all your eggs in one basket, as we have, it would be crazy not to convert the 70% or so. What think you?

Very respectfully,

HBM

BR549

(08/11/2001; 22:32:08 MDT - Msg ID: 59395)

Did you say hee hawed? & auspec

annie (: #59385)
"All I know is that if I, as an ancient had been told that the moon caused the tide to come in and go out, I would have just about hee hawed at that notion."

I haven't been here very long myself. Welcome. IMHO, this is both a stimulating and fun site.

auspec (#: 59383)
You made me feel welcome on my first post here also and I still appreciate it.

My earlier reference to the Russians bustin' the dollar did not have anything to do with Spiral Calendar's but more to do with their impending announcement to the Russian people about trading hoarded FRN's for their new value-based gold coins. The timing is always suspect because if anybody other than the PTB know about it, the market usually has already discounted it.

In re: to your #: 59384, I agree almost 100%. With the exception that I am not sure that most Americans are aware that Gold is being shipped off to defend the dollar or even care. It is the few of us that do know what is going on that need to start making noise. If the Feds are indeed giving away our gold, (according to their published stat's, they are not), then it's time to follow GATA's advice. Look at Argentina's depleted gold treasury and the demise of their currency as proof that modern currencies can collapse under their own corruption.

I have enjoyed your posts both here and other places and maybe need to look at this Spiral Calendar since we are talking what is going to happen in the future. Do you have a link for additional information on this?

Netking

(08/11/2001; 23:03:26 MDT - Msg ID: 59396)

Annie

Bon jour, Guten tag, Kham Cho, Namasie & Welcome Annie! . . . to this, the most golden place under the sun.

Buena Fe

(08/11/2001; 23:08:08 MDT - Msg ID: 59397)

Cheers

Hello fellow Pioneers, just stopped in for a quick check of the SPEL (sociopoliticaleconomiclandscape). No better place than the halls of USAF and the AuT.

Isreal really stoked up the embers with this latest move (Orient House), even more than if they had killed several Hamas leaders. As the Word states ...... "Jerusalem shall be a stumbling block to them". No peace til after a short war (about ten days), and then only a short peace at that.

TG has really started to clearly define the trail. When does oil seek Euro settlement??? Must be soon, Mexico cozy with S.A. last week. Dollar's days are numbered, a very dynamic/non-static situation, no one probably really knows how this is exactly going to fall out. (Au=opportunity)

GW seems wilfully detached from the Washington/Wall Street artery, unlike Clinton, maybe he knows their goose is cooked and has decided to distance himself from the fiery test about to be unleashed upon the money changers!

Appreciated the comments about some of your spouses. This has been a difficult road to travel ........ For encouragement study the lives of Mr. Merrill and Mr. Babson, circa 1929. Both contrarians through a mania, almost drove them crazy to see the world so differently then the majority of their peers, only to prosper substantially after the break got underway. Somebody needs to be around to understand the new world after the break. Somebody with a lot of common sense/compassion/wisdom, like the posters at USAF et al.

Welcome Annie

Best Regards

Black Blade

(08/11/2001; 23:20:00 MDT - Msg ID: 59398)

Will hedge funds become a nightmare on Wall Street?

http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/companies/story/0,2276,17383,00.html?
Snippit:

HEDGE funds were blamed by some as being agents of Asia's 1997 currency crisis. And so great was the outrage in some quarters, such as Malaysia, that governments and multilateral institutions banded together to devise controls over their activities. The currency hedge funds are now largely a spent force. But could it be that they are coming back in a new and equally virulent form to destabilise international equity markets? Some think so. And they feel that investors should be aware of what is going on.

'In 1999 and 2000, hedge funds encouraged the US equity market to rise to ridiculous levels of valuation. Then, 'in 2000 and 2001, they caused the valuation of several large-cap technology firms to explode'. After that, in April and May this year, short-covering by hedge funds ''caused many equities to rally despite an absence of any change in fundamental news about profits and orders'. This is reminiscent of what happened in the currency markets four or five years ago when hedge fund activity was blamed by some for wild gyrations in exchange rates in the absence of other underlying causes for such volatility. Of course, we all know that hedge funds helped wreak havoc in the so-called emerging markets in 1997. But they also played a major role in an earlier crisis - the 1992 attack on the British pound that led to its ignominious exit from Europe's then Exchange Rate Mechanism.

Black Blade: Not a word about the hedge fund role in the Gold Carry Trade, however, these hedge funds have their finger-prints all over the place. Who needs the Working Groups on Financial markets (aka PPT) when hedge funds can move markets with a slight nudge.

Canuck

(08/12/2001; 06:04:26 MDT - Msg ID: 59399)

@ BB

Thank you sir for your response 59369.

I believe we are on parallel planes. In addition to one very selection energy trust I added a small position into a 'retirement residence' REIT.

There were several interesting articles in the Globe and Mail this week-end. The CEO of a major was concerned about future gas production citing the increasing rig count and lack of proportional production; echoing your comments to a tee.

I am a relative 'newbie' to the energy crisis phenomona but in talking to friends and relatives it is absolutely amazing how shallow their thinking is. Most (energy) conversations circle around the high prices for a couple minutes and then its back to Aunt Marys' eye surgery and Betty Sues' new baby. Most of these people open a paper and zoom in on the sports, the horiscopes and the obitruaries(sp?).

My best friend (computer nerd) has his 'start-up' following the search for extra-terrestrial life. He explains in great detail that a mirror image of earth is in some distant galaxy, I ask him if he is looking for his home planet! He got into a fierce marital squabble about 2 years ago and I told him to take a couple bucks from his paycheck and buy silver, hide it somewhere. He told me that he didn't like 'hiding things from his wife'. I asked him if he thought she would be doing the same. So last fall they got divorced and after 6 months of 'dormancy' she bought a house and he holds the new golf clubs, the membership, the lease of the car, etc., etc. She's an old high school buddy so I went out to see the house a month ago. Her brother is a 'financial planner' and he had mentioned the uptick in gold funds and so she me asked about purchasing gold. He didn't buy an ounce of silver and she's buying houses and gold. Recently, I told my buddy about his ex-wifes' stellar 'money management. He shrugged his shoulders and promptly informed me that he 'broke 90' and continued with a shot-by-shot analysis. The conversation quickly drifted into golf and Formula-1 and after a couple beers I asked him if he had found 'earth'. The two of us grinned at each other and he blurted, "I think so, apparently its' loaded with gold, wanna go?" I gave him a high five and we cracked another beer.

What do you do with a clown like that?
View Yesterday's Discussion.

Cavan Man

(08/12/2001; 07:50:43 MDT - Msg ID: 59400)

Hill Billy Mitchell

My opinion is that there will be time enough to own other asset classes. The time to own gold is now; right now. I know very little about silver so I cannot offer an opinion. PS22: 1-21 (Amazing Grace)

BR549

(08/12/2001; 10:41:20 MDT - Msg ID: 59401)

Eliminating Risk

Black Blade (msg#: 59398)

Hedge funds, derivatives, futures contracts, puts, calls, although all different in their form have one thing in common-the elimination of risk. Basics of investing 101-the higher the risk, the greater the return and vice versa under normal unfettered supply and demand.

Take huge amounts of capital with low rates of return and eliminate the risk-- result huge amounts of profits. The banksters currently do not have to show derivatives on their balance sheets. The most frightening aspect of the largest of the hedge funds and all of the banksters risky no lose investment strategies, is that even if they do fail, the Fed stands ready willing and able to bail them out with taxpayer funds.

Of course if they all fail at once�..

Sierra Madre

(08/12/2001; 10:50:55 MDT - Msg ID: 59402)

About DERIVATIVES.....

Let's get this straight:

Derivatives DO NOT "eliminate" risk. They TRANSFER risk.

Some entity has to assume the transferred risk. And even Insurance Companies go broke now and then.

It seems to me that the derivatives spider web holding up the world economy is a very fragile thing and if it should begin to break down, not even the Fed would know where to start to shore up this extremely complicated network.

The world might find itself in a total shambles in a matter of hours or days, if the derivatives network begins to fail.

Sierra

BR549

(08/12/2001; 11:09:42 MDT - Msg ID: 59403)

Derivatives and other hedges

Sierra Madre

You are correct sir! What I should have said is "eliminate risk" from specific investment positions by transferring the risk to some other entity.

The Feds are obligated to bail out the banksters so they would start there.

Where it would end up? That's the point�the world's house of financial cards would tumble. My individual hedge fund against FRN's�own physical gold and silver.

Tannehill

(08/12/2001; 11:15:14 MDT - Msg ID: 59404)

Gold or silver, decisions - decisions, oh my

OPEC finally figured out oil derviatives and the paper barrels they created, then took oil from $18/barrel to $10 and back to $30. Me thinks they have also figured out how the bankers have bambozzled them with paper gold/derviatives, but they have no desire to push up the price of gold until they get physical delivery for all the paper ounces they have been promised. Why ruin a good thing?
If information is the new wealth of this high tech world, then just like everyone knows that the world is running out of oil, the flip side is also true, the world is running out of "physical" gold.

Let's see, 6 billion people --- 4 billion ounces of gold. Let's hope some of these people really believe that gold is a barbaric relic and has no wealth effect.

That's all from Tannehill

Gold Trail Update

(08/12/2001; 11:16:51 MDT - Msg ID: 59405)

The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated

The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.

slingshot

(08/12/2001; 11:21:27 MDT - Msg ID: 59406)

Sign of the Times. Observation

In my neck of the woods, there has been an increase in construction of large shopping centers. Super stores and major grocery chains with the usual outlet stores with special products.
The thing that caught my eye was each shopping center has a PAWN SHOP. A few years back I do not remember seeing so many of them. Now, they are everywhere. Possible connection to the Forbes body count?
Steak tonight Honey? Lets see, Chainsaw and powerdrill should cover it.
The time to look at gold is staring us in the face!
Slingshot

escapethematrix

(08/12/2001; 11:22:09 MDT - Msg ID: 59407)

Decision day= October 9, 2001....

http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary18.html#anchor196905Snippet:

Judge Lindsay has scheduled a hearing on the defendants' motions to dismiss for Tuesday, October 9, at 3:30 p.m. The underlying issue in that proceeding is whether the Constitution and laws of the United States may be enforced in a federal court action challenging the authority of Mr. Summers and other American officials, working at least in part through the Bank for International Settlements, to conduct the surreptitious and illegal gold price-fixing operations exposed even by his own academic research.

An interesting read about Mr. Summers and Gold....Check it out.

uponroof

(08/12/2001; 11:31:54 MDT - Msg ID: 59408)

Slowly I turn....step by step....inch by inch....

http://www.parade.com/parade/index.htmlThee above words made famous by none other than Curley of The Three Stodges....

Hope all are having a nice weekend,

First off, greetings annie-nice to see more women involved in PM discussions.

If you are a 'good friend' of auspec it's a good idea to include PM's into your life before 'tying the knot'. After tying the knot it's funny how PM's become as nasty as PMS between husband and wife. Don't know if I'm way off in my assessment of your situation, and am probably projecting way too much, but speaking from experience, men will always love PM's. Women seem to be less tolerant of the never ending trials and can develope PM's PMS. Please forgive me if this is not applicable to your situation, not intended to be critical. However, those of you out there who this does apply to...."I feel your pain". Nuff said.

It's Sunday.

I get the Sunday paper here in the Philly area and today there was, as usual, a 'PARADE' magazine insert. PARADE magazine is an insert which is included in 350 Sunday newspapers all over the nation. It is read by 80 million Americans and is the typical staple of America's 'new bourgeoisie'.

This cute little magazine has the mandatory gossip page on the latest Hollywood scandels, a 'Dear Abby section (Ask Marilyn) and similar shallow information that is the backbone of our society's information today. My point is that this rag is most likely finding it's way into the reading rooms (bathrooms) and minds of thos 80 million Americans.

Well the cover story this week is titled "WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT TODAY'S ECONOMY". Keeping in style, this is a very simple piece that is in a question and answer format. Some of the questions and answers however may surprise you. Here's a few examples:

Q: Are we still in danger of a recession?
A: Yes, and for anybody that's been laid off we are already in one.....

Q: How much trust should we place in economic forcast anyway?
A: Very little.

Q: So what should we keep in mind about forecasts?
A: That you can't 'time the market'. If economists and Wall Street pros don't know which way stocks or interest rates are headed-and they don't-then how can you?.....

Q: Will the California energy crisis hurt the economy?
A: Yes, especially if it spreads. Having workers sitting idle or missing delivery dates due to blackouts makes us less efficient. Inefficiency impoverishes us all.

Q: Should I hold onto my tech stocks?
A: It's nuts for most people to to try to pick specific stocks, let alone tech stocks. Look how badly the pros did it. Why would you or I do better? So consider selling stocks on which you can take a tax loss....

That's only a few of the tidbits being absorbed today by your neighbors. Some of the others are less bearish, but the overall flavor of this is as outlined above.

btw- "Casino" is a word used in this more than a few times. All in all a very sobering piece that will certainly open some eyes. Keep in mind, those who frequent here and other responsible financial sites are lightyears ahead of most ordinary "investors".

Of course we sometimes lean too far to the extreme in what lies ahead, but so far our dismal forcasts are closer to the truth than the inverse paper loving prognosticators who shamelessly 'hold (investor's) hands' all day long on CNBC and the like.

This Sunday paper insert is a guage of what the mainstream sentiment is becomming....closer to our point of view my friends (inch by inch).

Black Blade

(08/12/2001; 11:35:48 MDT - Msg ID: 59409)

RE: Canuck

There are those who look to the past, those who look at the present, and those who look to the future. For most people ignorance is bliss. If they do don't concern themselves with the world around them, then just maybe the problems will "go away." The governing officials and bureaucrats of Kalifornia knew that the energy grid and power production was inadequate and yet they just hoped that the problem would "go away." I have referred to this as the "Ostrich Syndrome" in some past posts. That is why your friends and relatives try to ignore the important problems and focus on more pleasant issues. I have friends who are the same as you describe. I recently went to the Sturgis rally and met with some friends from Kalifornia and they reacted the same way when we discussed the energy crisis for about 2 minutes, then the conversation drifted to other mundane issues. That is the difference between the "Grasshopper" and the "Ant." The Ant enjoys life while he prepares for potential problems and the Grasshopper plays all summer in blissful ignorance. Problem is - Winter is coming. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Mr Gresham

(08/12/2001; 11:44:20 MDT - Msg ID: 59410)

uponroof

...or was it Lou Costello, of Abbott & Costello? "Ni - agara Falls"

(i'm trying to keep up with the reading, honest, but it's summer, i'm tired -- and relaxed -- and nary a golden thought has passed through my head -- for weeks! call it a vacation if you will -- there's definitely a vacancy somewhere)

But FOA's had some great stuff, I'm printing and re-reading, outside in the hammock. Where's Oro been? Relaxing, too, I hope -- things could get exciting pretty soon, and we'll need him on board to help understanding things as they pop...

annie

(08/12/2001; 11:53:50 MDT - Msg ID: 59411)

You guys have been Busy!!!

Good Morning! I see some of you have been up for hours.

Thanks to Alamosa and Ol' Solomon, Buena Fe, Netking, HBM, BR549, and others who have welcomed me here. I have not read today's posts yet, but I wanted to comment on one theme from yesterday.

Not until this past week had I considered that one holding gold should, perhaps, sell some of that gold on a precipitous rise.

I have become quite paranoid that "holding gold" after the "crash" could be detrimental to one's well-being. Those who have sacrificed the "pleasures of the moment" in order to provide security once the brown hits the fan, may have jack-booted thugs at their door.

Anybody else here share that paranoia? Will the FBI or whoever be tracking down those that hold gold. Will they be pouring through these archives looking us up?

On a purely hypothetical basis, I would definitely think that selling some gold would be wise. If we do go into something of a "non-economy", we would want to be as "comfortable" as reasonably possible. For instance, if we anticipate needing to grow vegetables, would it not be wise to take some gold profits and purchase a roto-tiller? And maybe some canned peaches and nitrogen packaged foods?

I would think that it would not be advisable to try to use gold in barters for quite sometime to see how things "shake out".

Thanks again for the welcome. And, yes. I do appreciate the kind regards of auspec. Thank you, sir.

annie

auspec

(08/12/2001; 11:54:05 MDT - Msg ID: 59412)

@ BR549

As far as your "..I'm not sure that most Americans are aware that Gold is being shipped off to defend the Dollar or even care."
We are in total agreement here also. I seem to accumulate memberships in groups that are tiny but very vocal. It is quite surprising what can be accomplished with some real persistence. Having truth on your side is, of course, the key.
If you are interested in Chris Carolan's "The Spiral Calender" {and its effects on financial markets and human events, the book itself is the best starting place. I have no link to give you but know it is available through Elliott Wave International, Gainesville Georgia if not through regular bookstores. You can always ask for a newsletter sample.

Annie- There is mathematical info in this book as it relates to art and nature and then applied to the markets over time using the lunar calender as marking points. Can you spell e-s-o-t-e-r-i-c-?
Regards,
auspec

auspec

(08/12/2001; 12:03:39 MDT - Msg ID: 59413)

uponroof

Thanks for feeling our pain {cramping}, but annie and I are cyberspace friends from afar. I do know what you mean about a spouse getting a bit tired of all this gold and silver stuff, but I solved the issue about 2 years ago. I just simply agreed to work forever if things don't work out the way planned/invested. Don't try this at home!
Regards!

uponroof

(08/12/2001; 12:07:42 MDT - Msg ID: 59414)

Mr Gresham

That's it....."NI - AGRA FALLS!....Slowly I turn, step..."

Thanks for the clarification. I believe both did a version of the routine, Abbott and Costello and the Stooges.

Annie and auspec please ignore my post regarding the two of you today. I was under the impression that you were a couple, more intimate than mere cyber friends. Sorry.

BR549

(08/12/2001; 12:22:01 MDT - Msg ID: 59415)

The Spiral Calendar

http://www.calendarresearch.com/auspec--

Is this it? If so, I'll have my Sunday reading taken care of.

slingshot

(08/12/2001; 12:32:31 MDT - Msg ID: 59416)

Annie

Just happen to come across this forum by accident about this past January. Since then I have learned plenty and still have more to go. I am not a financial wizard on any account, but reading the posts here has helped me understand the markets. As for Gold, we may think the same. I believe we are near the bottom. Even if it dropped more I Still would buy. I use cost averaging. Remember the Gold is no good till you use it. Have a GOAL FOR YOUR GOLD! Pay off the house. Buy a New Car. Guess its RIGHT TIME,RIGHT PLACE.
Fiat to silver, convert to gold, Pay off house. Kind of a time line. How fast you convert might be a problem.
Far as holding some on the side. If all Bejebies breaks loose, they will not be looking for the gold. They will have their hands full elsewhere. Heck, if they did you should have your goals accomplished already and whats left,Eh.
Annie, I'm not going to get rich, but I will be positioned better for hard times.
Slingshot

Black Blade

(08/12/2001; 13:10:48 MDT - Msg ID: 59417)

RE: uponroof and Mr. Gresham

http://www.3stooges.net/images/st7.jpg
Nyuk, Nyuk, Nyuk.

annie

(08/12/2001; 13:11:00 MDT - Msg ID: 59418)

uponroof

First, just to clarify, I use the term "guys" for male/female. It substitutes for "y'all" since southerners have been given a bad name--unjustly--for supposedly using "y'all" in the singular. Dumb, eh. Anyway, I prefer the more grammatically acceptable, "Youse guyz", shortened to guys.

Okay. Thanks for the welcome, uponroof, your advice would be good if auspec and I were tying the ol' knot.

BTW, auspec, I have returned the form your attorney wanted me to sign saying we were just cyberfriends. (smile)

I may not be the typical female because of my "Little Red Hen" syndrome. While Slingshot says: "Remember the Gold is no good till you use it", in my own case, I disagree with that. Gold provides a nice backdrop for my other forms of security: seeds and learning to garden; stored foods; well and generator; etc. Most people in our society--outside of these gold forums--take security for granted. It is one reason that "they" don't like to hear what we have to say. It's pretty damn disturbing. Oops. Can I say that here?

Sierra Madre and BR549: I like the way you two work together: Derivatives DO NOT "eliminate" risk. They TRANSFER risk.

auspec: Yes. esoteric. Do you think somebody needs to make up a definition for it, or just use the one in the dictionary? (smile)

I've stayed here much too long. Studio beckons. Grunt work awaits. BBML

Black Blade

(08/12/2001; 13:15:43 MDT - Msg ID: 59419)

Future FED Reserve Governors?

http://www.3stooges.net/images/3stooges25.jpg

Nyuk, Nyuk, Nyuk - arf-arf-arf!

Netking

(08/12/2001; 13:36:58 MDT - Msg ID: 59420)

An another one . . .

http://www.cnn.com/2001/WORLD/meast/08/12/mideast/index.htmlHaifa Sunday Night)-Suicide bombing injures at least 20.

Black Blade

(08/12/2001; 13:38:57 MDT - Msg ID: 59421)

60,000 jobs awaiting Saudis in gold sector

http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm?id=ZAWYA20010811134024&Section=Markets&page=Commodities
Snippit:

According to latest statistics, there are 6,000 shops, 350 factories and hundreds of workshops employing more than 60,000 workers in the gold industry. Saudi Arabia is the fourth largest gold market in the world, with annual sales amounting to SR8 billion and an annual demand estimated at 200 tons. Jewelry shops in different parts of the Kingdom have been shut down for not recruiting trained Saudis. At Taiba, Owais and Qasman shopping centers in Riyadh, 107 shops have been closed down during the past few days. "These closures have increased sales at 40 shops at Taiba and Owais shopping centers by 200 percent," traders told Arab News.

Black Blade: Sure is a lot of concern over a "Barbarous Relic."

uponroof

(08/12/2001; 13:43:44 MDT - Msg ID: 59422)

Chairman Curley

Black Blade....thanks for the memoriesThe Stooges will always have a place in my heart. Spent countless cildhood afternoons on the floor in front of the TV watching the likes of Sally Star, Bertie the Bunyip, Ramar of the Jungle, Clutch Cargo, Our Gang, etc, etc,... but The Stooges were always the best....and of course, Curley was the best of the best.

Love to see him testifying before Congress with Moe and Larry sitting behind him, as councel, providing the occassional slap to the back of the head. Can't you hear Rep Henry Waxman or Barney Frank trying to get a straight answer out of him regarding the economy? "Nyuk Nyuk Nyuk, arf! arf! arf!"

OK....it's out of my system now. sorry

Black Blade

(08/12/2001; 13:54:54 MDT - Msg ID: 59423)

RE: uponroof - Chairman Curly

That's funny just thinking about it! What a contrast to the AG's meaningless mumblings. Thanks!

- Black Blade

BR549

(08/12/2001; 14:08:00 MDT - Msg ID: 59424)

3 stooges

I love 'em. Ever known a woman that really likes the 3 stooges? And you never will.

Mr Gresham

(08/12/2001; 14:16:58 MDT - Msg ID: 59425)

BR549

Nyuk, nyuk, nyuk! (="Amen, brother")

CoBra(too)

(08/12/2001; 14:37:20 MDT - Msg ID: 59426)

What a Day!

First of all my warmest welcome too, to you, Annie! The artisan and juggler of words - creating a scenario of value with the same easy stroke of words as with your paint-brush. Please, Annie feel free to take up your seat on the round table - maybe across from Leigh - as we olden guyz would offer thee any place you would preferably occuppy (same goes for Phil, if he cares to row across the river, from time to time).
Our good friend Auspec, CM and many others have already been charmed by your arrival and as I've never seen such a warm welcome for anyone - I do suspect your contribitions speak of your artistic intellect, and more!

Lamprey 65 and Sierra Madre had been hacking away at hedge funds and leverage, supposed to ameliorate any, if not all risk in the financial casinos, formerly known as capital markets. I have to totally concur, as I've said before even the recently founded leveraged risk 'co-operative' (known as counterparty risk group, a co-op of the main BB's) will ultimately find no market to offload their (a-)cumulated idiocy - except the already maxxed out tax payer... holding the bag, again ... if he can!

MK - great synopsis on the trail - thank you!
Would like to comment on some points, though will have to postpone, due to some pressing bus(y)iness.

Kind regards to all - cb2

auspec

(08/12/2001; 14:51:53 MDT - Msg ID: 59427)

BR549iral Calender

You found it! Will love to hear of upcoming 'turning points' for gold/silver if you ever stumble across them.

auspec

(08/12/2001; 14:54:13 MDT - Msg ID: 59428)

annie

Hope you signed that form, it is what can be called an e-nuptial {smile}.
Best to you

BR549

(08/12/2001; 15:16:27 MDT - Msg ID: 59429)

What a Day!

cb2

Rumor is this "Phil" guy has been crossing the river for several weeks under a new identity and crossing back. When swimming over to this great land the last time, he noticed no others crossing in the opposite direction. After much contemplation and hand wringing thought, he hopes to immigrate here permanently as the style of life here is much more to his liking.

The people are friendly here, they are funnier "yuk, yuk yuk" "whoop", "whoop" "whoop", and the natives on this side of the river are very knowledgeable about PM's and schooled in the science and technology of "what's happening now in the economy." The links are fantastic.

Enough of this Bob Dole style third person stuff: Sorry, for not fessin� up earlier, so please forgive me, especially my good friends Leigh, auspec, cb2, and many, many others for whom that I have tremendous amount of respect for their ideas and postings.

The air is clean, the sun is shining, and as Travis Tritt, says "It's a good day in the neighborhood�.."

BR549

(08/12/2001; 15:23:27 MDT - Msg ID: 59430)

What a Day!

Make that "It's a GREAT day in the neighborhood!"

auspec

(08/12/2001; 15:28:17 MDT - Msg ID: 59431)

BR549

OK, Phil, now that you're up to a confession, what is the significance of BR549? We probably also ought to get your response to uponroof's message #59408 about the not-tying!
Did I ever tell you how I walked across the Colorado River as a kid?
Welcome again, you rascal.

Gold-- {That's for any site monitoring by the house, smile}

Buena Fe

(08/12/2001; 15:31:19 MDT - Msg ID: 59432)

spec

www.cnn.comThe resturant that the IJ bombed in Haifa today was named "Wall Street" ....... is this an omen?

Chris Powell

(08/12/2001; 15:31:22 MDT - Msg ID: 59433)

How Summers learned that as treasury secretary he'd need to rig gold

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/850Reg Howe's latest shows how Professor
Summers' academic writing about gold
prepared the way for the Clinton
administration's gold-rigging policy.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Buena Fe

(08/12/2001; 15:34:22 MDT - Msg ID: 59434)

oops

http://www.cnn.com/front page picture

CoBra(too)

(08/12/2001; 15:53:06 MDT - Msg ID: 59435)

Paradoxon or (Oxy-) Moron?

@ BR549 - yuk, yuk, yuk or better tsk, tsk, tsk - could'a should'ave known the style. Thanks for lifting the veil, as I wanted to say hi all the way ... was only shy to express my gratitude to you some time ago - taking openly my side! Thank you - very couragous and chivalrous of you!

Just had the opportunity to chat with Bill Murphy, what a great team he's assembled and will instantly try to digest the latest dispatches concerning 'Summers' a la' Gibsons Paradox and more to come.

Reminds me of a veteran Wall Street friend, who paradoxically is a goldbug, stating that Prof. Summers and Prof. Rudi Dornbush are training a generation of Harvard elitist economists on their own paradoxon! Son of a gun ... seems almost impossible for a chameleon or is it an oxymoron, or just a plain moron? Well, I'll be gone - see u soon cb2

BR549

(08/12/2001; 16:15:23 MDT - Msg ID: 59436)

PM's vs. PMS

auspec (59431)

auspec and uponroof---

By the way there are many others on the other side of the river whom I respect including the owners. You know who you are over there and believe me I don't intentionally paint with broad brush strokes. I respect even those whom I disagree with, on both sides of the river and will continue to question terms and definitions that I can't define so I can learn something.

BR549 has to do with the farmer's plight. The price of food is manipulated to the detriment of family farms and to the advantage of big agribusiness. When family farmers continue to no longer exist, this country is then permanently doomed. Much the same as to what happens to ticket prices when major airliners absorb their competition. In my opinion commodity trading at the CBOT has nothing to do with small farmers. Small farmers can jump in and hedge the price of their December wheat to lock in some of their declining profits, if they knew how, but if they can't pay the rapidly escalating taxes on their land or have a bad year or two, the banksters end up owning it. Critics of farmers wonder why there are government subsidies to not plant crops, etc. The farmers would be fine if their goods could be sold on the world market at market prices unfettered by supply & demand and with a weak (instead of a strong dollar). Plus LuLu and I have something going on.

Re: uponroof: "If you are a 'good friend' of auspec it's a good idea to include PM's into your life before 'tying the knot'. After tying the knot it's funny how PM's become as nasty as PMS between husband and wife. Don't know if I'm way off in my assessment of your situation, and am probably projecting way too much, but speaking from experience, men will always love PM's. Women seem to be less tolerant of the never ending trials and can develope PM's PMS. Please forgive me if this is not applicable to your situation, not intended to be critical. However, those of you out there who this does apply to...."I feel your pain". Nuff said."

I'm not sure about the correlation between PM's and PMS but I know that my mate and I are in complete agreement about the ownership of PM's, and hoarding of food, water, seeds, etc. There is absolutely no conflict. So I'm just lucky I guess. As to PMS, the only thing I heard about that-- is the reason that it was named PMS. Ans: The name "Mad cow disease" was already taken. Better go find a place to hide now.

PS: Decided I had better cross over here to keep an eye on her. I didn't know about you two. (Ha!)

auspec

(08/12/2001; 16:16:35 MDT - Msg ID: 59437)

Steve Saville & US$

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/milhouse081401pv.htmlFrom article at GE:
"Once the Dollar's upward trend is perceived to have changed, the alarm bell will sound and many of the leveraged positions purchased by foreigners will need to be exited in a hurry to protect profits or limit losses. Remember- we are not talking about long term investments {! my emphasis}, we are talking about short term speculations that do not make any sense unless the Dollar's short term trend remains up." END

Comments: He is quite clear that a rising gold price brings in investment demand which is so contrary to our ongoing accumulations. I'm still of the opinion that gold will 'pop' {upwards, of course} THIS YEAR! To many factors are lining up against the market suppressors for this to go on much longer.

Cavan Man

(08/12/2001; 16:43:38 MDT - Msg ID: 59438)

Forum

Here, here; I wander away to cook dinner for my family and see what I miss? CB (too): I'm enjoying some Chilean Cab Sav--wish you were in da' hood. BR549: My wife is the biggest Stooges fan I know. Beware of absolutism eh? We are almost home. "Believe it".

BR549

(08/12/2001; 16:53:24 MDT - Msg ID: 59439)

Wife is a big 3 stooges fan

Cavan Man (msg#: 59438)

You had better keep a close eye on that woman. You are indeed a lucky man. I hate generalizations too. A big Yuk! Yuk! Yuk! and whoop! whoop! to her.

Netking

(08/12/2001; 16:54:57 MDT - Msg ID: 59440)

Why wait?

Could there be a safer purchase (as either an investor or speculator) ANYWHERE at this given point in time than buying physical gold & silver?

Au & Ag have such limited(very) downside potential & such unlimited upside potential. Be one of the smart ones and buy at the bottom, call USAGOLD/CPM today!

- Netking

Raha

(08/12/2001; 17:24:43 MDT - Msg ID: 59441)

Funny

Just dropped in to see what condition my
condition was in and what do I see? Larry, Moe
and Curley Joe. Sheesh you guys are funny!
Good to see the mood has lightened over here.

We PM'ers need to have a sense of humor considering
what we have been through over the last four or five
years or decade or score.

Hope every one has a great day.

ps: to an old friend if he is reading, Gus good luck!

NYUK NYUK NYAAAAAAAA

Netking

(08/12/2001; 17:40:39 MDT - Msg ID: 59442)

"Be prepared for the worst scenario" - Amr Moussa

http://www.jpost.com/Editions/2001/08/12/LatestNews/LatestNews.32443.htmlSnippit:
Arab information ministers will meet in Cairo Wednesday . . . . following Israel's seizure of the Palestinian headquarters in eastern Jerusalem, the Arab League said.

Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa said today the ministers will review the "deteriorating situation in the region," and warned the Arabs will never accept the takeover of Orient House.

"Under these circumstances, we should be prepared for the worst scenario," he said, without elaborating . . .

auspec

(08/12/2001; 17:51:30 MDT - Msg ID: 59443)

James Turk Bombshell

http://www.lemetropolecafe.comSnippet from James Turk's latest in his Sherlock Holmes series at LeMetropole Cafe:

Here's a mystery for you. It ranks high with any of the great thrillers solved by Sherlock Holmes, but this one is not fiction.

I have been arguing that the US Treasury and possibly the IMF have been selling gold, and that their actions have depressed the gold price. But if I am right, then why has the reported weight of the US Gold Reserve and the gold stock of the IMF remained unchanged?

The easiest answer to this question is also the most unlikely. This low probability answer is that the US Gold Reserve and the gold stock of the IMF are not being accurately reported.

I dismiss this answer, almost completely but maybe not entirely because one never knows what could be happening. A deliberately reported inaccurate weight of gold would mean fraud, and I don't see that deception to be a highly probable outcome. No, I think there has to be another answer. END

Comment: Dammit, am gonna find out what the meaning of the word 'is' is yet! Isn't I?

CoBra(too)

(08/12/2001; 17:52:18 MDT - Msg ID: 59444)

GATA & the Cafe are brewin' some strong Coffee too - Today

- Phew, what a day ...

Look at the lastest dispatch at "Little Bears" table - sorry, Bill to hear he's passed away, feel with you - though his last bark was taken up by James Turk re SDR Mirage: ... "SDR's can't be swapped for gold, but there's no regulation at the IMF for prohibiting swapping SDR Certififcates for gold!" ... (ob-)scenarious - not found in Webster's - annie - Now I'm going for good (night) ... cb2

White Hills

(08/12/2001; 18:10:32 MDT - Msg ID: 59445)

Gold Trail #95

MK, I love the New format on the Trail.Your latest posting brought out answers to many of my own questions. I can hardly wait for the next posting by TG, While we are waiting let me pose some questions to you. The Gold transfers to defend the dollar that are being discussed, could those transfers, or some of them, be to settle accounts with Oil producers in the Oil for Gold deals as discussed by Another and FOA? Is Euro for Oil a done deal? I have to think it was one of the Pillars that the Euro was built on. Went to a local store to look at new metal detectors and in discussion with the salesman he asked what kind of Gold I was going after. I replied $2000.00 per oz gold. This provoked a discussion about the price of gold. His belief was that gold was just a commodity that was to expensive to mine and had no use and was a poor investment as it paid no interest. I only mention this to illustrate the complete lack of understanding out there about gold. And, this is from a guy who makes his living selling prospecting equipment. In the meantime this weekend I will be in th Gold Basin area of Mohave County , Arizona, which is 10 miles from my ranch in Arizona as the crow flies and 50 miles by road. Anybody out there know of any good areas where you can still placer mine? I didn't even mention $30,000 Gold the guy would have had a stroke. White Hills

auspec

(08/12/2001; 18:26:13 MDT - Msg ID: 59446)

Another Turk Snippet

"Does this mean that 87% of the UD GoldReserve has already been swapped? I don't have the answer to that question, but I would like to make four important observations that do in fact suggest that substantially all of the US Gold Reserve has been put into play." END

Comment: Howe would you like to have these guys on YOUR trail after you have defrauded the American people?

auspec

(08/12/2001; 18:30:41 MDT - Msg ID: 59447)

White Hills

Please tell all my old friends in Mohave County, Kingman and Lake Havasu City hello for me. I grew up there {didn't grow up much however} and know that area pretty well, where is your ranch?

Gandalf the White

(08/12/2001; 18:34:40 MDT - Msg ID: 59448)

JUMP SPOT, Jump !!

$275.0 and awakening !!
<;-)

Cavan Man

(08/12/2001; 18:36:48 MDT - Msg ID: 59449)

auspec

Can't wait for N.O. Mysterious guest is AG? That's my guess anyway.

Cavan Man

(08/12/2001; 18:38:04 MDT - Msg ID: 59450)

Markets

Not sure about the moon cycles and sun cycles and bicycles but the Asian markets are off to a poor start and spot is up. Cheers.......CM

Cavan Man

(08/12/2001; 18:46:47 MDT - Msg ID: 59451)

IRQ

Can anyone expalin why we are still attacking Iraq almost daily? Is there a good reason why we desire to bring the Chinese into the WTO etc but, continue to make Iraq the the recipient of reprisals consonant with 100 years of failed western policy in that part of the world? Does anyone visiting here realize that Iraq has its own USAGOLD type of forums in addition to struggling families and innocents trying to earn their daily bread? Do you have any additional rhetorical questions CM?

Leigh

(08/12/2001; 18:52:03 MDT - Msg ID: 59452)

Cavan Man

Do you have a link to an Iraqi USAGOLD-type forum? It would be fun to lurk there.

Welcome, Annie! The rumors of your engagement to auspec are greatly exaggerated!!

auspec

(08/12/2001; 18:55:16 MDT - Msg ID: 59453)

Leigh

It seems most everything is exaggerated lately, no? They don't allow bigamy in Ala do they?

Gold

auspec

(08/12/2001; 19:00:56 MDT - Msg ID: 59454)

Good News/ Bad News

The bad news is.....The U.S. gold is gone!

The good news is....The U.S. gold is gone!

Turk says they're now working on the IMF's gold {that's International MFs for those of you not familiar with this elitist tool}.

lamprey_65

(08/12/2001; 19:09:42 MDT - Msg ID: 59455)

WAR?

I believe so. I'd be very surprise if we escaped this administration without one (not a Bush basher).

Remember, "It's about jobs." - James Baker during the Gulf War build-up.

Check the continued extremely high institutional ownership of defense contractors (i.e. LMT) for another clue.

Got to run to my night shift job...you know, another tech worker in distress. :-(

Later.

BR549

(08/12/2001; 19:10:36 MDT - Msg ID: 59456)

Russia

Greetings to my old friend Raha�

Here is a towel to dry yourself after a nice swim. If there are others behind you, I hear there is a bridge under construction but right now it will be one way and you will probably have to be "licensed" to use it, so you may want to swim.

Raha broke the Russian valued-currency story the day that it happened. The implications of the Russian's new economic strategies for those who hold physical gold are immense.

If you believe that constant demand with reduced supply causes prices to rise-then buy some more physical gold.

Like wise if you believe that the Russian's are going to attack the strength of the dollar by flooding the market with their hoarded FRN's and attempt to change it as the world's standard currency-- then buy some more physical gold.

If you believe that the rest of the world is ganging up on the U$ dollar to undermine it via adding physical gold to their own treasuries-then buy physical gold.

If you believe that the U$ will be the last country to go back on the gold standard because they are trapped by derivatives and other paper junk-then buy physical gold.

Welcome, Raha!

It is time to eat some fresh Gulf shrimp and scallops. It has been a Great Day!!

auspec

(08/12/2001; 20:00:37 MDT - Msg ID: 59457)

Raha

Good to see you here, man. Ain seen ya sins da udduh day.

Geaux Geauxld!

Netking

(08/12/2001; 20:01:31 MDT - Msg ID: 59458)

Iraq

Do "we" (ie Western allies) bash Iraq? Good question & a matter of perception I guess, but I believe not.

The Iraqi people are great, humble & peace-loving struggling to exist with their families, just like those from the PRC. What needs "bashing" though is a regime (any regime) that rises to usurp over the rights of another peace loving neighbour/region for their own personal gain. Has not Iraq got a number of insatiable appetites ie to redraw the map of the Middle East, be it their neighbour Iran, to get Kuwait's gold or push Israel into the sea?

When they start doing all of these & more . . . then enough is enough. (IMVHO)
-----------------------------------------------------------
McAgspec & Annie - The silver bugs here believe you, although dozens of other paper based investors may not.

Black Blade

(08/12/2001; 20:22:13 MDT - Msg ID: 59459)

Nikkei Crash Continues

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Nikkei just might tumble below 10,000 this week if this keeps up. Hang Seng doesn't look too healthy either.

White Hills

(08/12/2001; 20:23:22 MDT - Msg ID: 59460)

auspec Msg#59447

auspec, thanks for the reply. Mohave County, a great place to live. My ranchETTE is off of highway 93 at mile marker 27 (or Rosie's if you are familiar with the area) up whitehills road thru the pass 8 miles to Unit #2 'Goldenhorseshoe ranches. This is a great desert area that has been lived in and mined since the late 1800's. The town of WhiteHills no longer exists but at one time the silver mines there produced more silver than any mines in the southwest. You can still live here much the way they did a hundred years ago as long as you give the other guy plenty of room. Between a business in Las Vegas and making Adobe Bricks at the ranch (11,000 for the house I plan to build) only 10,980 to go. I still look for gold not only in Gold Basin and the general area but from USA Gold, thanks MK. If you are ever in the area please come by and we can talk Gold buying or mining. USA Gold has my permission to give you my email address would love to hear from you. Buy the way the Arizona powerball lottery is 100,000,000.00 this Wed night and people will start coming to Rosie's from Las Vegas to buy tickets. You have to see Rosie's it is like out of old route 66, 4 Tables and a counter. The last time it was this high there was a line down the Highway and they had to carry water out to the people. The wait was close to two - four hours depending on who is doing the telling of the story. I have 20 tickets and am willing to share my $100,000,000.00. So the first USA Gold Posters that Post saying they want to share my POTENTIAL winnings I will Give you a number so that Wed night we can all Watch or listen for the Winning numbers. auspec here is your , I hope winning number. Maybe as being raised in Mohave County you will be lucky. Ticket # A, Numbers 08,17,18,34,47, and 17 is the powerball GOOD LUCK!!! White Hills

Ten Bears

(08/12/2001; 20:26:40 MDT - Msg ID: 59461)

Oro

Oro,do you still post here?

Shermag

(08/12/2001; 20:53:49 MDT - Msg ID: 59462)

A welcome

annie, welcome to the forum.

justamereBear

(08/12/2001; 20:55:41 MDT - Msg ID: 59463)

Cavan man 59451

No, it just goes on mindlessly. Look at Cuba. The then US Ambassidor to Cuba published a rather lengthy thing on his retirement saying that Cuba was in the US camp before the US started its silly campaign. He was not kind to the US, and said Cuba had nowhere else to turn, but towards the USSR.

Now Cuba is still being bashed, and it is lying prostate, has been for years. Why?

j'Bear

Chris Powell

(08/12/2001; 21:29:01 MDT - Msg ID: 59464)

The Mystery of the Missing SDR Certificates

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/851James Turk's latest essay, "The Mystery of
the Missing SDR Certificates," explains how
the U.S. government may be suppressing
the gold price. Americans should print a copy,
mail it to their members of Congress, and
ask them to determine whether Turk is right
or wrong.

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/851

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Black Blade

(08/12/2001; 22:26:29 MDT - Msg ID: 59465)

Flat to Down Week Seen on Wall Street

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010812/business_markets_stocks_dc_540.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks are likely to tread water or decline this week as investors brace for a few earnings reports from key companies and take cues from a heavy economic calendar that includes weak July retail sales. Traders also are seen stepping lightly this week in the run-up to the Federal Reserve's policy-making meeting on Aug. 21. The U.S. central bank is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter-percentage point that day.

Black Blade: Yep, I'm holding Abby Jo's feet to the fire. She had predicted DOW at 12,500, NASDAQ at 6500, and S&P at 1650 (now 1550) by year-end. I think that's a tall order. Many Pied Pipers are changing their tune and now predict recovery in the second half of next year. Earnings are falling faster than lead balloons and valuations are absurdly high. Could get ugly on Wall Street as this recession deepens. With the massive layoffs and loss of the wealth effect from the tumbling stock market, consumers are likely to cut spending and therefore amplify the effects of the recession. Even the bogus CPI and PPI data will not be enough to hide the true state of the economy. Even the FED's rate cuts don't budge the markets anymore. Instead with each rate cut many question what dangers and pitfalls exist in the economy that are so severe to warrant such an aggressive string of rate cuts. Obviously the FED knows that this recession will go down as one of the most severe in recent history. Time to grab a fist full of gold.

Raha

(08/12/2001; 22:50:08 MDT - Msg ID: 59466)

Howe complaint

According to latest from GATA, Judge Lindsay
of the Massachusetts Federal District Court in
Boston will have a hearing on the Howe complaint
on Oct. 9 2001.
Geaux GATA, Geaux Reg Howe

Netking

(08/13/2001; 01:37:05 MDT - Msg ID: 59467)

25,000+ Investment bankers gone this year, so far . . .

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1488000/1488236.stmSnippit:
More than 25,000 investment bankers have lost their jobs this year, as the global economic slowdown has hit revenues, a survey said. A slump in company takeovers and mergers has left investment banks without work to support corporate financiers, who advise on these deals.

The number of mergers and acquisitions in July was, in Europe, 34% below the monthly average for last year, and, in the US, 54% lower.

And the slump was reflected in share markets and bond launches, leaving banks with excess traders and brokers . . .View Yesterday's Discussion.

Netking

(08/13/2001; 02:02:34 MDT - Msg ID: 59468)

Asian Stocks Unsettled; Tokyo Hits 16-Year Low

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010813/business_markets_asia_dc_47.htmlTokyo . . . The latest knock for the world's second biggest stock market came after painful profit warnings from core domestic players Advantest Corp and Rohm Co

The companies issued the warnings after the Japanese market closed on Friday, but their share prices took the hit on Monday.

Advantest, the country's top maker of semiconductor testing devices, slumped 7.45 percent to 7,830 yen per share, while specialty chip maker Rohm dropped 11.43 percent to 15,500.
-----------------------------------------------------------
TAIWAN . . . vows to prevent panic run on banks:

http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/asia/story/0,1870,63715,00.html?

Snippit: Authorities in Taiwan have vowed to prevent a panic run on banks amid moves to overhaul 36 troubled financial institutions in the island's biggest banking reform yet.

To pacify depositors across the island, Mr Yen said his ministry had placed NT$60 billion (S$3 billion) on standby to cover withdrawals, while Mr Perng guaranteed to 'provide liquidity without any limit'.

The appeal came two days after 200 banking officials were given the task of investigating 36 small credit unions or cooperatives, mostly operating in southern Taiwan.

justamereBear

(08/13/2001; 02:19:06 MDT - Msg ID: 59469)

Netking

Thanks for the last 2 posts. Had no idea Taiwan was in that bad a shape. I do know that the government has a huge stash of gold, off the books, buried in some government subsidiary (Unless they have disappated it in the last couple of years)(which I think unlikely) Their Fiat in touble, eh? makes the cheese more binding

j'Bear

Netking

(08/13/2001; 03:03:16 MDT - Msg ID: 59470)

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.htmlWonder what's goin down with Ag, up about 10 cents in as many minutes on Bart's graph . . . back to where it was last week before it took "a hit" last week. Reminds me of a series of small shock waves before the earth quake.
------------------------------------------------------------
J'Bear - I have a feeling "we aint seen nothing yet" with this . . . - Netking

Simply Me

(08/13/2001; 04:07:47 MDT - Msg ID: 59471)

auspec: RE BR549 and Local Gold Interest

Do you happen to remember a weekly television series from the late '60s to early 70's called HeeHaw? Sort of a TV version of the Grand Ol' Opry. It was country music entertainment..music and skits starring Roy Clark, Buck Owens and "the whole HeeHaw gang". One of the gang was a big ol' boy named Junior Samples who was always selling something and at the end of his "commercial" satire he would hold up a sign and tell everyone to call "BR-549".

Maybe you're not old enough to remember that show. But I'll bet our "BR549" is old enough to remember when your TV got 4 or 5 channels if you were lucky.

Welcome BR549! I'm an infrequent poster, but a faithful follower of this forum since 1999.

By the way, folks, I'm seeing a renewed interest in gold on the small-time coin dealer level. Not that the average State Quarter collector is getting the itch...but folks with a little money to put away have started to make regular gold purchases rather than stuffing their Money Market Funds and IRA's. The tide began to turn this summer.
Not that such small time gold demand is going to raise the POG...but I think it's an indicator that some folks still remember the value of gold. And the average age seems to be in the 40s and up. The same folks who would remember what BR549 means!

Thanks, as always, to all who post their knowledge here!... Especially to MK and TrailGuide. I'm still here on the trail...huffing and puffing to keep up but immensely grateful to be here.

As someone who's been following for awhile, I can testify to the newcomers that, even though the trail moves slower than you might like and the twists and turns leave you feeling lost, when you get to each overlook landing you can look back and see that the whole way was clearly marked by our good TrailGuide.

simply

nickel62

(08/13/2001; 04:35:32 MDT - Msg ID: 59472)

The answer to how the government gold manipulation has been accounted for by the government accontantstes

The Mystery of the Disappearing SDR Certificates

by James Turk

Copyright 2001 � by The Freemarket Gold & Money Report.

Here's a mystery for you. It ranks high with any of the great thrillers solved by Sherlock Holmes, but this one is not fiction.

I have been arguing that the US Treasury and possibly the IMF have been selling gold, and that their actions have depressed the gold price. But if I am right, then why has the reported weight of the US Gold Reserve and the gold stock of the IMF remained unchanged?

The easiest answer to this question is also the most unlikely. This low probability answer is that the US Gold Reserve and the gold stock of the IMF are not being accurately reported.

I dismiss this answer, almost completely but maybe not entirely because one never knows what could be happening. A deliberately reported inaccurate weight of gold would mean fraud, and I don't see that deception to be a highly probable outcome. No, I think there has to be another answer.

I touched upon the possible solution to this mystery earlier this year. I wrote (Letter No. 283, "Behind Closed Doors") that the portion of the US Gold Reserve stored at the depository in West Point, New York had been swapped with gold owned by the Bundesbank, and that the gold in the German central bank had been sold. So far, nothing I have seen refutes this contention, and correspondence from the Bundesbank has wrapped much of its gold policy in a cloak of confidentiality, adding credence to my conclusion. After all, if my supposition weren't true, why not just disclose the facts to convincingly refute it?

Be that as it may, there were some loose ends that in my mind needed to be tidied up in order to add more substance to my contention that much of the US Gold Reserve was swapped and then sold. And first among those loose ends was the accounting. How were all of these gold transactions being accounted for? How could all of this gold be put into play even while the reported weight of the US Gold Reserve and the gold stock of the IMF remained unchanged? And perhaps most importantly, why didn't these transactions result in any apparent change on the balance sheet of the main perpetrators of this scheme, the Federal Reserve and the Exchange Stabilization Fund? There has to be some kind of accounting trail, doesn't there?

I've thought long and hard about these questions, but have been unable to answer them to my satisfaction � until now. And in this regard, I would like to thank David Walker, a tireless researcher who has an uncanny ability to read between the lines of tedious and dull government reports to get at the truth. Dave's terrific work provided me with the motivation to continue researching an area that until recently had been largely unfruitful for me. And what is that area? A monetary instrument emitted by the International Monetary Fund called the SDR, an acronym for Special Drawing Rights a.k.a. �paper gold�.

My intuitive sense for some time had been that SDR's were the key necessary to unlock the door. By understanding the SDR, I expected that one could understand what was happening to the US Gold Reserve as well as put together a consistent accounting and the legal framework for the gold transactions that I contend have been taking place. But even though I thought SDR's would provide the much sought after answer I was seeking, I was having trouble with a few things, mainly related to the accounting.

For example, SDRs are so-called "paper gold", so this financial asset has to have a corresponding liability just like any other �paper� money, right? But I couldn't find who or what is actually liable for the SDRs.

After digging away in the IMF archives, I found the following in an IMF accounting manual called the Manual on Monetary and Financial Statistics, in a section entitled "Definition of Financial Assets: http://www.imf.org/external/indexlst.htm

"Monetary gold and SDRs issued by the IMF are financial assets for which there are no corresponding financial liabilities."

How about that? No wonder I couldn't reconcile the accounting. Here's a purely financial asset with no corresponding liability!?! SDR's issued by the IMF are accounted in the same way that the IMF accounts for its stock of gold. I thought that only tangible assets like gold, houses and land had no liabilities. I never dreamed that a financial asset would not have a corresponding liability, but after this realization, one thing led to another and everything slowly but surely started falling into place.

In "Behind Closed Doors" I included the following quote from the transcript of the January 31st, 1995 FOMC meeting:

MR. TRUMAN. The legislation governing the objectives of the ESF was changed, I think for the most part in the mid- to late-1970s. The changes included the language that the government of the United States and the International Monetary Fund have the obligation to promote orderly exchange rate arrangements leading to a stable system of exchange rates.

Since first reading this candid comment I have always been struck by it. Truman is relying upon this 1970's legislation to provide the legal justification to use the ESF to bail-out Mexico. It therefore seemed clear to me that if I could figure out what was implemented in the 1970's, I could then come to more precisely understand how the US Gold Reserve was being put into play.

I had been unsuccessful, however, in trying to figure out what was the legislation to which Truman was referring. Well, I now think that he was referring at least in part to what is called the Second Amendment of the IMF.

By way of background, when the gold crisis in the 1960's was in full swing, the original IMF articles were amended. This First Amendment to the IMF created SDRs. Then here's what the Second Amendment did.

http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/gold.htm

What changed under the Second Amendment to the Articles of Agreement of the IMF? The Second Amendment to the Articles of Agreement of the IMF, which came into effect in April 1978, eliminated the use of gold as the common denominator of the par value system and as the basis of the value of the SDR. The Amendment also abolished the official price of gold and abrogated the obligatory uses of gold in transactions between the IMF and its members� Under the Amendment, members undertook to collaborate with the IMF and other members with respect to reserve assets to promote better international surveillance of international liquidity.

I draw your attention to the last sentence. I think this statement explains what Ted Truman was referring to. The term "international liquidity" is a euphemism I think that gives a carte blanche to do whatever the various IMF members want to do, using assets that are at hand or whatever assets that they create out of thin air, to intervene and manipulate any market anyway they want under the guise of "international liquidity" � which really means to let the banks create credit out of thin air for no other purpose but to keep the present system afloat so they can preserve their position of privilege and keep lining their pockets.

The following quote is from the "User's Guide to the SDR" published by the IMF.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/FT/usrgsdr/usersc01.htm#3

3. Improvements in the SDR after the Second Amendment:

One of the major objectives of the Second Amendment of the Fund's Articles of Agreement, which became effective on April 1, 1978, is to make the SDR the principal reserve asset of the international monetary system. To this end, the Fund's Executive Board has taken a number of decisions to improve the yield on the SDR and its liquidity and usability. At the same time, certain obligations arising from participation have been eliminated.

"Improvements" to you and me may sound innocuous, but in reality these 'improvements' have only one objective � to keep the present system afloat by providing more power to governments working hand-in-hand with the banking cartel. So far I'm not sure of all the ways the SDR became more usable, nor have I yet discovered all the obligations that were eliminated when the Second Amendment "improved" the SDR. But I have learned enough about the SDR to conclude why the accounting of the US Gold Reserve does not appear to have changed. This mystery can be solved by first solving a second mystery, the case of the disappearing SDR Certificates.

To begin, it is necessary to provide some background information gleaned from more hours of studying arcane IMF accounting than I care to admit, but I'll keep it simple. And the way to do that is to show how �real gold� and Gold Certificates are accounted, because I have learned that �paper gold� and SDR Certificates are accounted essentially the same way.

The US Gold Reserve does double-duty. It sits in the vaults at Fort Knox and the other depositories, but the US Treasury has issued Gold Certificates against it. The Federal Reserve owns these Gold Certificates, giving the Fed a claim to the 261.6 million ounces in the US Gold Reserve. Simple enough, and the same transaction is used for �paper gold� � the SDR's � with just one small difference. The US Treasury has transferred its SDR's to the ESF, so the ESF and not the US Treasury issued the SDR Certificates now owned by the Federal Reserve.

Importantly, these SDR Certificates are being accounted for much the same way as the Gold Certificates. Both are carried at book value, which is much less than their market value. The Gold Certificates are carried on the Federal Reserve's books at $11,046 million, which doesn't sound like much. However, when you consider that these Gold Certificates are being valued at only $42.22 per ounce, this asset represents the entire 261.6 million ounces in the US Gold Reserve. And the SDR Certificates are being valued at � well, here is where it starts to get interesting. And here is where the mystery of the disappearing SDR Certificates comes into play. Look at the decline in the SDR Certificates in the accompanying table.

Exchange Stabization Fund
Federal Reserve

(Assets)
(Liabilities)
(Assets)

(in millions)
(in millions)

SDR
SDR
SDR
SDR
Gold

Holdings
Certificates
Allocations
Certificates
Certificates

Dec-98
10,603
9,200
6,899
9,200
11,046

Mar-99
9,682
8,200
6,653
8,200
11,049

Jun-99
9,719
8,200
6,545
8,200
11,046

Sep-99
10,284
7,200
6,799
7,200
11,047

Dec-99
10,336
6,200
6,717
6,200
11,048

Mar-00
10,335
6,200
6,599
6,200
11,048

Jun-00
10,444
4,200
6,552
4,200
11,046

Sep-00
10,316
3,200
6,359
3,200
11,046

Dec-00
10,539
2,200
6,384
2,200
11,046

Mar-01
N/a
n/a
n/a
2,200
11,046

The above table presents the SDR assets and liabilities of the ESF and the Fed. Though recent figures for the ESF are not available, as of August 9th the Fed still owns only 2,200 million of SDR Certificates, so presumably the SDR entries on the ESF balance sheet have not changed much since December 2000. To understand why the SDR Certificates are disappearing as well as where they are going, more background information is necessary.

The US, like each IMF Member, owns SDR's but is also responsible for the value of the SDR. Note #4 of the ESF's financial statement for 1999 explains it thus: "Its [the SDR's] value as a reserve asset derives, essentially, from the commitments of participants to hold and accept SDR's and to honor various obligations connected with its proper functioning as a reserve asset."

As of December 1998, the ESF owned 10,603 million SDR's, but it had a liability for 6,899 million SDR's. What does this liability represent? Here's what Schedule B of the Articles of Agreement of the IMF says: "�0.888671 gram of fine gold shall be equivalent to one special drawing right." That means 35 SDR's equals one ounce of gold. So the US has the potential obligation as of December 2000 � if required to make good on SDR's issued � to pay to the IMF or its members 182.4 million ounces of gold, some 69.7% of the US Gold Reserve.

That huge liability is pretty scary, but it is only a potential liability. Who knows whether the US will ever be required to make good on it, or if it does, whether the US will default just like it defaulted in 1933 on its obligation to pay US government bonds in gold and in 1971 on its obligation to redeem 35 dollars for one ounce of gold. Those are problems to worry about in the future. Of more immediate concern is the decline in the SDR Certificates. What is that all about? To answer this question and to solve this mystery of the disappearing SDR Certificates, we have to once again go back to basics.

Why are the SDR Certificates declining? The basic answer is quite simple. The SDR Certificates MUST BE reduced if the ESF intends to use its SDR's for any purpose, such as market intervention or swaps. In other words, the SDR Certificates are a claim against the SDR's, so the SDR Certificate must be cancelled to remove any claims on the SDR before the SDR can be used by the ESF. But the amount of SDR's owned by the ESF hasn't changed except briefly in early 1999, so it seems that the SDR's are not being used for any purpose.

So what I think has happened is that the SDR Certificates are themselves being used by the ESF. Here's what the IMF says about the use of SDR's in swaps: "In accordance with Article XIX, Section 2(c), the Fund prescribes that...a participant, by agreement with another participant, may engage in an operation by which (a) one of the parties transfers [i.e., swaps] to the other party SDRs in exchange for an equivalent amount of currency or another monetary asset, other than gold."

Thus, SDR's cannot be swapped for gold, but there is no IMF regulation that prohibits the swapping of SDR Certificates for gold. So let's take this observation to its logical conclusion, namely, that the ESF and/or the Federal Reserve has been swapping SDR Certificates issued by the ESF for gold owned by the Bundesbank, and presumably other central banks as well because we noted above that the Second Amendment states that "members undertook to collaborate with the IMF and other members" for the sake of international liquidity. So presumably, all IMF members are committed to undertake any scheme that the US government may hatch.

This interpretation may also explain the strange response to Alan Greenspan by the Fed's General Counsel, Virgil Mattingly, who has "no clear recollection of exactly" what he said during the January 31st, 1995 FOMC meeting, even though it seems most likely that the transcript accurately records him as saying "gold swaps". In his June 8, 2001 note to Greenspan, Mattingly states: "I can confirm that I have no knowledge of any �gold swaps� by either the Federal Reserve or the ESF." Is Mattingly being truthful? Yes, I think so, at least in regard to the precise choice of terms used in his note.

Remember President Clinton's exegesis on the definition of the word is? Lawyer Mattingly I think is playing the same game. By this line of thinking, neither the Federal Reserve nor the ESF do �gold swaps�. Instead, these transactions are probably called "SDR Certificate Swaps" or some other similar term, although the FOMC participants may use the unofficial term "gold swaps" as a short-hand moniker that is not only easier to say than the official name of the transaction, but also has the added advantage of clearly communicating the net result of the transaction.

There is another important piece of corroborating evidence that SDR Certificates are being used by the ESF to hide its gold transactions. When several months ago I first read the audited financial statement of the ESF, I was struck by a peculiar phrase in footnote #4, which in addition to considerable explanatory text also provided a table of SDR purchases and sales during the year. The text stated that these purchases and sales were "equivalent of SDR's". Therefore, I concluded that if they were "equivalent of SDR's", SDR's were not actually being used in the transaction. But I wondered, if they weren't SDR's, then what were they? We don't know for sure what they are, but they are probably SDR Certificate transactions � not SDR's, but only their "equivalent".

Let's put the size of these transactions into perspective. As of December 2000, the ESF owned 10,539 million SDR's, against which it has issued 2,200 million SDR Certificates. Therefore, 8,338 million SDR's are potentially �in play�, but we can refine this number given that it is the SDR Certificates and not the SDR's that are important.

The ESF by law cannot issue more SDR Certificates than it has SDR's. The largest amount of SDR Certificates outstanding was 10,168 million in December 1995, a significant date because I have contended all along that government actions that have depressed the gold price began in 1996, which is the same year that the SDR Certificates began to decline. From this peak to the present, the SDR Certificates have been reduced by 7,968 million. Given that there are 35 SDR per ounce of gold, this reduction in the SDR Certificate account equates to 227.7 million ounces, or 87% of the US Gold Reserve. Does this mean that 87% of the US Gold Reserve has already been swapped? I don't have the answer to that question, but I would like to make four important observations that do in fact suggest that substantially all of the US Gold Reserve has been put into play.

First, note on the accompanying table the dates when the SDR Certificates began to decline rapidly. From 10,168 million in December 1995, the SDR Certificate account declined to 8,200 million by June 1999, or 19% over 3� years. Now look at the decline beginning in the third quarter of 1999, which corresponds with the Washington Agreement signed in September of that year. In only 18 months the SDR Certificate account declined by 73%. Was there a panic to get gold into the market after the Washington Agreement to keep the gold price from rising? This evidence sure does support that conclusion.

Second, readers will recall how the US Treasury changed in September 2000 the classification of that portion of the US Gold Reserve in West Point to "Custodial Gold". It is interesting and probably meaningful to note that this change occurred in the fiscal year ending September 30th in which there was a substantial decline in the SDR Certificates.

In "Behind Closed Doors" I speculated that the reason for this reclassification was that the Mint's accountants or its new director realized that it was misleading to continue calling this swapped metal as "Gold Bullion Reserve". This logic may also explain why more recently, the entire US Gold Reserve was reclassified as "Deep Storage Gold". If 87% of the US Gold Reserve has indeed been swapped, it may have been too obvious an admission by the US Treasury to reclassify nearly the entire US Gold Reserve as "Custodial Gold". Therefore, to give some semblance of proper accounting while not totally divulging the truth, the Treasury came up with the half-baked term "Deep Storage Gold". Further, it was my thinking that the Treasury, taking a lesson from lawyers Clinton and Mattingly, probably defined this term in some obscure Treasury accounting manual.

What was a speculation on my part is now supported by a letter dated August 7, 2001, to Richard May from John P. Mitchell, Deputy Director of the US Mint. Mitchell states: "The gold in West Point was not reclassified � it was renamed to better conform to our audited financial statements." Despite providing five pages of supporting material with his letter, Mitchell does not explain how this �renaming� enables the Treasury to "better conform to [its] audited financial statements." The logical conclusion is that this better conformation arises because the strict application of prudent accounting principles no longer allows the Treasury to use the term "US Gold Reserves" because more than half � and possibly 87% of it � has been swapped. Given that the Treasury does not want to use the more accurate but alarming term "Custodial Gold", the US Gold Reserve has therefore instead become "Deep Storage Gold", allowing the Treasury to remain within the letter if not the spirit of the principle of full disclosure.

The third observation takes the above changes and explains them in weights of gold. The 6,000 million drop in SDR Certificates from June 1999 to December 2000 represents 171.4 million ounces, or 28.6 million ounces (888.7 tonnes) per quarter. That's a supply of about 3500 tonnes per year, which added to 2500 tonnes new mine production implies an annual demand of 6000 tonnes for the period of time after the Washington Agreement. Is this number reasonable?

In my opinion it is reasonable. Noted gold analyst Frank Veneroso contends that annual gold demand has been running about 5000 tonnes, but this number reflects normal market conditions. After the Washington Agreement and the price spike, the market was anything but normal. Even though fabrication demand fell during that period, investment and monetary demand for gold soared. So it is not unreasonable to expect that more than 1000 tonnes of newly supplied gold from government dishoarding was needed in the months after the Washington Agreement to turn the price back from the +$320 level reached at that time.

The fourth and final observation relates to a point I made in the last newsletter. I noted how earmarked gold has been shipped from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York at a rate of at least 40 tonnes per month beginning in September 2000, while also stating this new "dishoarding from the NY Fed smacks of desperation". The above table confirms this conclusion.

The SDR Certificate account has not changed since the 4th quarter of 2000. With only 2,200 million remaining, the SDR Certificate account, while not depleted, is near rock bottom and one must ask how much more gold the US government is willing to throw at the market? I don't think the answer to that question is "all of it", so essentially there is no more US gold available for swapping. Consequently, with these SDR Certificate swaps eliminated as a source of supply, another source of gold had to be located to fill the gap between supply and demand.

In the last newsletter I suggested that the IMF is this new source. That's just a supposition on my part, but it seems logical that IMF gold is being shipped out of the FRB of NY. The quantities being shipped are so large, the gold must be coming from a large hoard, and the IMF has, on paper at least, one of the world's largest. But regardless of whose it is, this gold is being shipped at a rate greater than gold is being mined each month in South Africa, the world's largest producer. That volume of shipments smacks of desperation to get gold into the market, and the reason is clear. Because the SDR Certificate swaps have ended, a new source of gold supply is needed to keep the gold price from exploding upward.

In conclusion, it is becoming very obvious that the US government has put itself in an incredible pickle. But we've seen this happen before.

In the 1960's the US government dishoarded over 9000 tonnes of gold rather than admit that the dollar had been debased and was no longer worth only $35 per ounce. Now it appears that perhaps as much as 7,000 tonnes (227.7 million ounces) has been swapped for essentially the same purpose � to intervene in the market to fight the truth, rather than admit that the dollar has again become very debased relative to gold. �

jamesturk@goldmoney.com

Zenidea

(08/13/2001; 05:20:09 MDT - Msg ID: 59473)

Nickel62... Feels the vibes.

Good on ya pal !, its about time someone spat it out !. and I am not talking accounting/swaps inter-alia .... I mean
isotopes !. Not only have you given a number of reasons for + or - you have given an intuitively fundamentaly low radioactively laboratory nano nuclear motif split that pays for our oil ,whoops energy on a constant basis
Time limited threshold. as the ancients never gave up on .
Black Blade next week will be watching the history channel.

nickel62

(08/13/2001; 05:24:47 MDT - Msg ID: 59474)

Zenidea

Would you run that one buy me again...I think I missed your meaning.

SteveH

(08/13/2001; 05:27:08 MDT - Msg ID: 59475)

So, it turns out that the strong dollar policy is

really the SDR Certifate swap. In other words, US gold ownership has been swapped to protect the short-term value of the dollar.

If it weren't for the internet (no thanks to any news media whatsoever -- after all they are all owned by big corporations who are beholding to the banks behind this) we wouldn't have had a clue.

Murphy is right, this is the biggest financial scandal of the 20th and 21st century and it seems cnn is the last to know (or to report it anyway).

What the heck ever happened to good investigative reporters whose traditional role it was to find these things out and expose them? Or is this being too naive?

Canuck

(08/13/2001; 05:36:36 MDT - Msg ID: 59476)

The Petition

http://www.thepetitionsite.com/takeaction/365824991?sign[partner_userID]=977161898&sign[memberID]=977161898&sign[partnerID]=1After the article by James Turk I have added my name to the 'Petition'.

Registration is required, 'anonymous' may appear to the public.

A field also allows a comment. The petitioning is to "Clarify U.S. Policy on Gold and Gold Accounting.

I have added, "There has not been an official audit of U.S. gold in over 25 years; I would bet only a handful of people really know how much gold there is."

nickel62

(08/13/2001; 05:43:41 MDT - Msg ID: 59477)

SteveH You answered your own question!

The only investigative reporters left are right here on the internet..PERIOD!

nickel62

(08/13/2001; 06:01:28 MDT - Msg ID: 59478)

Could anyone tell me where in Boston the Howe court hearing would be?

I would like to attend and maybe even take my kids to see this hearing before the US judge. I think that it will be one way or the other one of the most significant events in our Constitutional form of government. I missed the Watergate trials but this should be even more eventfull. It is also an important way for the world to learn of the importance of this action. One way or the other freedom hangs in the balance. If the demonstaters in Geneva hadn't shown up who would even consider that there was any opposition to the new form of global colonization we have evolved. So email me any information that any of you have on the location and time of the hearing and lets see if any of us can find the time to attend..

Zenidea

(08/13/2001; 06:15:33 MDT - Msg ID: 59479)

Nick ! Follow your instincts.

You have never missed a trick, I mean gold that pays for oil
Anothers H.O.F. Those countries whom understand the nuclear equations and of whom belong to a special group
of laboratories i.e usa . russia, france , nuclear in a bottle. You asked .. Valences and vacuum's in clylones :)

Zenidea

(08/13/2001; 06:25:20 MDT - Msg ID: 59480)

ops

Cyclones ='s velocity, read socrate's, how many times must I hint it?.

Gold Trail Update

(08/13/2001; 07:24:31 MDT - Msg ID: 59481)

The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated

The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.

Mr Gresham

(08/13/2001; 07:33:35 MDT - Msg ID: 59482)

IMF link on gold

http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/gold.htmHere's the surprisingly informative section at the IMF site given in Turk's essay, which I couldn't resist jumping to before finishing off Turk's mystery thriller...

CoBra(too)

(08/13/2001; 07:50:02 MDT - Msg ID: 59483)

The Unfolding of a Drama of historical Proportions?

As an historical pattern is evolving before our eyes - thanks to all the great research of all the gold advocates -
a pattern of financial scheming through-out the last century, debasing all and any currency from its hard asset backing up to the US$ reserve hegemony,it now seems the global financial a/o monetary system is at risk to totally destruct.

At every juncture in this scheme gold played the main part as it was huge amounts were lost in all the manipulations to stem the tide of sudden debasement, rather we've seen a sneaking debasement, which could be more conveniently hidden by the spinmeisters of NWO.

The late 60's had their London Gold Pool and took about 9.000 tons of au to keep the $ pegged, leading up to the 71 funeral of Bretton Woods. Again in 1979 the Ldn. G.P. was resurrected to defend the $'s position, while the Plaza Accord was designed to install the IMF's synthetic SDR's towards the lender of last resort.

And now we know, that over the last several years the gold leasing scheme can be seen as a last ditch effort to save the precarious monetary system, while the foundations eroded under its own gravity and a new contender to the fiat throne was in the making.

Looking back to the Washington Agreement and what was discussed since on this (A/FOA/MK) and similar fora, as well as Reg Howe's, Gata's and James Turk and many others, in regard of what is evolving evidently comes together like pieces of a puzzle. And only few will see, what becomes glaringly clear to us over here.

Musings on how history will see the early part of the new millenium? Gold - the ultimate insurance to be had for little paper, for how much longer though? best - cb2

USAGOLD

(08/13/2001; 08:11:55 MDT - Msg ID: 59484)

Today's Commentary: Off to Good Start; Run of Reports Should Make for an Interesting Week

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html8/13/01

In Brief: Gold is higher this morning on good investor
demand overseas adding more spice to the traditionally
slow summer doldrums period. There were unconfirmed
reports on Friday and over the weekend that a large
Australian gold producer was squaring its hedge book and
giving gold impetus. The dollar is off slightly adding to
the firm action in gold. Allen Williamson, an HSBC trader
quoted by the AFP news service, summed up currency
gold sentiment: ""The US dollar has weakened and there
is quite a close correlation: when US dollar weakens, gold
strengthens. We will be looking at the market to trend
higher over the next few months." That assumption, AFP
goes on, is "based on the assumption that the dollar would
weaken further."

A run of government report card on the economy could
make for an interesting week. We have Retail Sales
tomorrow; Industrial Productivity on Wednesday;
Consumer Prices on Thursday and the Trade Balance on
Friday.

That's it for now. See you back here tomorrow. Have a
good day, fellow goldmeisters.

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Black Blade

(08/13/2001; 08:15:29 MDT - Msg ID: 59485)

Silicon Valley in the dumps as high-tech giants' stocks lose $2 trillion US

http://cbc.ca/cp/business/010812/b081202.html
Snippit:

SAN JOSE, Calif. (AP) - A Silicon Valley company thought so much of Jim Roorbach that it brought him to California from Virginia in January to direct its information services. He and his wife bought a house in San Jose. Then one day in May, Roorbach was suddenly laid off. Until recently, that wouldn't have been terrible for Roorbach, 59. A retired navy captain with two master's degrees and 36 years of technology experience, he could be an employer's dream. Not so in the brutal summer of 2001 in Silicon Valley, where the high-tech downturn and U.S. economic slump have hit hard and fast.

As companies lost value, the local unemployment rate more than doubled - and is now worse than the national average. Layoffs hit safe havens such as Hewlett-Packard Co., not just flamed-out Internet companies. "So, what do you do for a living?" is no longer a pleasant icebreaker at social occasions. Companies that aren't shedding workers have stopped hiring. Those with jobs are taking pay cuts. Lucrative mergers and initial public offerings are drying up. For most people, the tech boom's giddiness seems like a dream.

"The job market is almost nonexistent," said Roorbach, who has had job interviews but no offers. "If this goes on four, six months, you're going to see a mass exodus out of the valley."

Black Blade: More lessons from the "Bone Pile." There's a lot of cash gone to "Money Heaven." Silicon Valley has also been hit very hard by the energy crisis and the resulting high energy costs. Many high tech companies have moved out of state and many more are considering moving as well. California's economy is toast and it will sweep eastward. Some trend setter! A "Gold Pile" would not be a bad addition as portfolio insurance.

BR549

(08/13/2001; 08:25:02 MDT - Msg ID: 59486)

HeeHaw

Simply Me (msg#: 59471)

Yep! Loved HeeHaw. I used to watch it with my dad. He loved Junior Samples who was born in Cumming, GA just above Atlanta. My dad was born there but moved away early in his life and always wanted to return. He never did. Dad wasn't at all like Junior Samples but loved his honesty, his humor, and the way he laughed. The land is real expensive in Cumming now that the Carpetbaggers and banksters have driven the family farmers out.

HeeHaw was indeed where my handle came from and not the gibberish rock band that has also appropriated it. I think that buying a gold coin every now and then is what everyone should do, before the Feds dishoard our national supply to the other Bundesbank's around the world.

Thanks for the warm welcome and I suggest that you become a more frequent "rather than infrequent" poster.

Black Blade

(08/13/2001; 08:27:33 MDT - Msg ID: 59487)

Is home ownership a bubble, too?

http://www.dallasnews.com/business/columnists/scottburns/441696_burns_12bus.AR.html
Snippit:

"How can we be out of money? We still have checks." So it is with the Great American Buying Spree. Stocks are weak, but so what? Home prices keep roaring onward and upward. This means homeowners have more collateral to borrow against. So let's party. Today, your home isn't your castle. It's your margin account. At the end of the first quarter, according to the National Association of Realtors, the median existing home resale price rose 4.7 percent over the previous year. That means home prices beat inflation and incomes.

Basically, homeowner collateral and borrowing power are increasing faster than our ability to pay the money back.

Black Blade: I have touched on this before, however, I did not think of real estate per se as a "Bubble." I have always stressed investment in hard assets. Many have been lured by the 125% value loans on their homes - putting their homes at risk. It will get very ugly when this is all said and done. Interesting article.

BTW, The Pied Pipers (such as Ned riley of State Street Global Advisors) are very busy this morning. Notice how they come off as Used Car Salesmen?

Black Blade

(08/13/2001; 08:34:20 MDT - Msg ID: 59488)

Stock funds drop 3.3%

http://www.usatoday.com/money/funds/brief.htm
Snippit:

Stock mutual funds gave up 3.3% of their value on average this week, as both the Dow Jones industrial average and the Nasdaq composite index posted losses, according to Lipper, the fund trackers. Only three fund categories finished the week ended Thursday, Aug. 9 in positive territory: gold funds, real estate funds and Latin America funds. Gold funds were the best performers, posting a 3.1% average gain. For the year, gold funds are up 11.6% on average, second only to small-cap value funds, which are up 12.1%.

Black Blade: The article still pans gold, however, gold stocks tend to lead gold prices. There's a reason the stock bubble has popped and gold is higher. There's a fundamental change in direction that has put the global economy in a deepening recession. People see the value of the retirement vaporizing before their eyes and they are getting scared. Some even run toward gold.

BR549

(08/13/2001; 09:24:35 MDT - Msg ID: 59489)

Dishoarding our National Treasury a.k.a. Turk dissected

http://www.gata.org/turk.htmlTurk's genius sort�a simplified--

--US Treasury and possibly the IMF have been selling and delivering physical gold from U$ coffers

--87% of the US (real stuff)Gold Reserve has been swapped for paper and then sold

--reported weight of the US Gold Reserve and the gold stock of the IMF unchanged

--no apparent change on the balance sheets of Fed and the (ESF) Exchange Stabilization Fund

--How? Fraud or invented SDR, an acronym for Special Drawing Rights a.k.a. 'paper gold'.

--Gold (real stuff) and SDRs (a.k.a. paper) issued by the IMF are financial assets for which there are no corresponding financial liabilities."

--Created "international liquidity" � which really means to let the banks create credit (a.k.a. paper) out of thin air for no other purpose but to keep the present system afloat so they can preserve their position of privilege and keep lining their pockets.

--providing more power to governments working hand-in-hand with the banking cartel

--'real gold' and Gold Certificates (a.k.a. paper) are accounted for the same way that 'paper gold' and SDR Certificates (a.k.a. paper) are accounted for

--Fed issues Gold Certificates (a.k.a. paper) against U.S. (real stuff) gold reserves (261.6 million ounces)

--SDR (a.k.a. paper) Certificates are being used by the ESF to hide its (real gold) gold transactions

--US Treasury has transferred its SDR's (a.k.a. paper) to the ESF

--ESF and not the US Treasury issued the SDR (a.k.a. paper) Certificates which are now owned by the Federal Reserve.

--SDR's (a.k.a. paper) & gold certificates (a.k.a. paper) carried by Fed at book value ($42.22/oz) than current market value ($275/oz.+-)

--Fed holdings declined to 2,200 million of SDR Certificates (a.k.a. paper) from 9,200 since 12/98

--0.888671 gram of fine gold shall be equivalent to one special drawing right." That means 35 SDR's equals one ounce of gold. (no U$ FRN monetary value assigned)

--US guarantees IMF liabilities (a.k.a. paper) represents 69.7% of the US Gold Reserve

--SDR Certificates (a.k.a. paper) are a claim against the SDR's so manipulations will be legal

--IMF swaps SDR Certificates (a.k.a. paper) for physical gold

--Fed renames Gold Reserve in West Point to "Custodial Gold (a.k.a. paper) " a.k.a.,"Deep Storage Gold" (a.k.a. paper)

--gold demand has been running about 5000 tonnes

--40 tonnes per month beginning in September 2000 being dishoarded by Fed

--SDR Certificate (a.k.a. paper) swaps eliminated as a source of supply, another source of gold had to be located to fill the gap between supply and demand.

Turk's Summation: "In the 1960's the US government dishoarded over 9000 tonnes of gold rather than admit that the dollar had been debased and was no longer worth only $35 per ounce. Now it appears that perhaps as much as 7,000 tonnes (227.7 million ounces) has been swapped for essentially the same purpose � to intervene in the market to fight the truth, rather than admit that the dollar has again become very debased relative to gold."

Check the link for the original chart's and article and pass the link on via your e-mails.

annie

(08/13/2001; 09:29:56 MDT - Msg ID: 59490)

SDRs, etc.

Please consider this as a "work in progress"--a bit loosey goosey for starters. After reading the Turk article, I have not read any comments and must now go to work.

Thanks to Leigh for your greeting. Also to all of you have welcomed me directly and through your kind attention to my presence here.
***
As I ploughed through the Turk article, my mind was once again desperately trying to find some "real world" coefficient to which I could attach his terms in order to form a basis of understanding. Hmmmmm.

Then I came up with an idea. As a child, my brothers and I would play poker. We were not allowed to "gamble", but we were allowed to use matchsticks as "chips". My oldest brother would quite ceremoniously break the matches in half declaring the end with the phosphorous tip as $5 and the naked end as $1. Then the matchsticks were doled out to each of us equally. It seems to me that what the IMF did is similar. Instead of doling out matchsticks, they doled out SDRs, then ceremoniously declared them to be the equivalent of gold.

My oldest brother, being the oldest, decided one day that at the end of the game, each of us would pay a penny for each "$1" and a nickel for each "$5".

Had my brother had the ESF and IMF model to go by, he could have justified all of this to my mother: We were not gambling; we were just playing for matchsticks. At the end of the game, certificates were awarded to indicate who had been most successful. The sibling who had negative value on their certificate agreed to put pennies into "the pot". Conversely, those with certificates of a positive value were allowed to take pennies out of the pot.

No money was gambled; the matchstick chips could not be exchanged for money.

Let's continue by saying that we decided to keep the game going. Certificates could be accumulated. So we decided that we would use the weekly allowance as a guideline. Two older brothers got $1 a week; baby sister got $1/2 a week. This would create a "pot" of $2.50 for a week. Matchsticks would be handed out, ceremoniously, of course.

And let's project that one week, I get lucky. The big one. A royal flush. Having secretly practiced in front of a mirror, I sandbag shamelessly. Pretending frustration�betting out of control. And I win�big. I get a certificate worth $2. Okay.

The elderly man who ran the country store less than 100 yards down the road sold candy and soft drinks and all sorts of things that little people could treasure. There was a pocket knife that I had gazed at time and again. I offer my certificate. My kindly neighbor accepts it. My parents find out and nobody gets an allowance. Oops.

I need to give this more thought, but need to go to work. I can think while I work. Any suggestions? Comments?

TIA, annie

(08/13/2001; 09:35:50 MDT - Msg ID: 59491)

James Turk's Latest Article

It is very interesting. US and Germany swapping gold, and Germans selling the US gold. I wonder whether the Germans sold the physical metal or just (paper) gold notes?

VanRip

(08/13/2001; 10:38:20 MDT - Msg ID: 59492)

Mr. Turk's Article

Mssrs. Turk and Howe and GATA have done an astonishing amount of work unraveling the intricate web of gold and its use in international affairs.

However, It is one thing to see how all the pieces of the puzzle might come together but quite another to realize that the government may simply say, so what, it's all legal. I imagine that's what their lawyers will try to prove, if it ever gets to trial, and that what looks like a conspiracy is simply the mechanism for keeping a "stable system of exhange rates," blah, blah, blah. It's all in how you interpret what the legislation says (see reference to some it below in snips from Mr. Turk's article ). Mr. Howe will be up against some slippery folks.

"MR. TRUMAN. The legislation governing the objectives of the ESF was changed, I think for the most part in the mid- to late-1970s. The changes included the language that the government of the United States and the International Monetary Fund have the obligation to promote orderly exchange rate arrangements leading to a stable system of exchange rates.

.....Under the Amendment, members undertook to collaborate with the IMF and other members with respect to reserve assets to promote better international surveillance of international liquidity. "

VanRip

(08/13/2001; 10:57:38 MDT - Msg ID: 59493)

Part of Reg Howe's Task

From a release to the Business Wire from GATA just a few minutes ago. I hope it gets some visibility.

....The underlying issue at the hearing Oct. 9,
according to Howe, will be whether the U.S.
Constitution and federal law may be enforced
in a federal court action challenging the authority
of former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers and other American officials, working in part through the Bank for International Settlements, to conduct surreptitious gold price-fixing operations."

Buena Fe

(08/13/2001; 11:25:02 MDT - Msg ID: 59494)

The $ has no Gold

Absolutely outstanding work by Murphy/Howe/Turk/GATA, et al. In my opinion, the single most important thought to ponder in this is, "how long till the international trade (read oil) community believes/admits/owns up to the fact that the US is bankrupt, and does something about it?" Some within this community have understood these issues for a long time, but it has been convenient/safer(?) (source of cheap Au) to "play along" until ............. when?

Buena Fe

(08/13/2001; 11:55:55 MDT - Msg ID: 59495)

last sentence should read

....but it has been convenient (source of cheap Au), and safer (bombs away Iraq) to play along.........

Yes, I believe that America has/does/will use military options to manage/infuence economic policy, but when the whole world reaches the same conviction "the $ is naked" at roughly the same time......... well you can't bomb everyone!

As they say in nuclear physics "gentlemen the fiat test is approaching "critical mass" (perception), please put on your safety googles". (Or phone USAGOLD and buy Au)

Mr Gresham

(08/13/2001; 12:29:11 MDT - Msg ID: 59496)

Buena Fe: The Mailed Fist

And that's what the $300 billion military budget, since the fall of the USSR, has always been about, hasn't it? "Laws? Treaties? Har-de-har-har. We keep the oil, we keep our gold, we bomb a few countries now and then... get it?"

"Well, at least that veil can come off our 'noble' image. We can't force you to trade with us now, but then, we've already gotten most of your goods that we can. And you'll be back in 50 years, or less, to "invest" in us and our "dollar" again. We pull it over on the international investors at least once a century."

Nothing to be proud of here. It's the Roman Empire, 2001-style. And not exactly in the service of its Roman-born inhabitants either. Time to read Gibbons again? Dr. King had a few things to say about the arrogance of nations. Right along toward the end, he did say quite a bit. Hmmmm...

Old Yeller

(08/13/2001; 12:50:38 MDT - Msg ID: 59497)

Facing reality

http://markets.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3SDDPBCQC&live=true
"Estimated default probability is now assessed at 90-95%,up from 60% three weeks ago."

Sounds like a done deal to me,note how the article downplays the risk vis-a-vis Russia/LTCM of 1998.Seems rather implausible,given the other extreme stresses in the markets right now.

Anybody for a Turkey-melt?

Thanks to Winston for the link.

uponroof

(08/13/2001; 12:52:26 MDT - Msg ID: 59498)

Barrons - Day of Infamy....... Jude Wanniski

Wanniski has always written from this stand point. No news here. The real news is it's being published in Barrons no less. Can you feel the tide changing?

Gold is getting more and more good ink....
*******************************************

August 13, 2001

Other Voices
Day of Infamy
Learning the lessons of the fateful decision to close the gold window
By JUDE WANNISKI

On Monday, August 16, 1971, the day after President Richard Nixon devalued the dollar, cut taxes, slapped a 10% surtax on tariffs and imposed wage-and-price controls, I was assigned to cover the story for the National Observer, the Dow Jones newsweekly. I called the chief economist of the Office and Management and Budget, Arthur B. Laffer, invited him to lunch, and when we met outside the White House I asked him what he thought was the most important part of the package.

"Closing the gold window," he said without hesitation. "From now on it is not going to be as much fun to be an American." At the lunch, it became clear Laffer was on the losing side of the gold argument inside the Administration. The clearest winner was Treasury Secretary John Connally, who had been persuaded that economic growth required a cheaper dollar on the foreign-exchange market.

Laffer was one of three members of a "gold committee" that had been part of the planning of the overall initiative that stunned the world that Sunday. The other two were Treasury Undersecretary Paul Volcker, who went on to become chairman of the Federal Reserve Board in 1979, and Ken Dam, deputy White House chief of staff, who is today waiting to be confirmed as Deputy Treasury Secretary to Paul O'Neill in the George W. Bush Administration. The gold committee did not recommend closing the gold window, but it was overruled by Nixon's more senior advisers.

Then only 30 years old, Laffer had argued the cheaper dollar would mean only inflation, and greater expense for Americans traveling abroad. He said it would not alter the U.S. trade deficit with Japan -- which Connally was counting on, and that the U.S. dollar, no longer as good as gold, would cause American banks to suffer relative to foreign banks.

The proponents of devaluation were for the most part associated with the Democrats: Professor James Tobin of Yale and Fred Bergsten, who later held the top international post in the Carter Treasury where he argued constantly for an ever-cheaper dollar to boost exports and limit imports. Connally, of course, was a Texas Democrat whom Nixon admired.

The Tobin school argued that there would be very little inflation from the 13% dollar devaluation because foreign trade was only 5% of American commerce.

Thirteen percent of 5% is less than half of 1%, which is what they said would be the added inflation rate, which was thought to be well worth the increase in domestic jobs they promised Nixon would occur.

Laffer argued a 13% devaluation would mean a 13% inflation, over time. Five months later, Robert Mundell, who had been on the faculty with Laffer at the University of Chicago, made his famous prediction that we "would soon see a dramatic rise in the price of oil and thence all commodities."

It was Mundell's insight, based on his mastery of classical economic theory that had died out when it was blamed for the Crash of 1929 and the Great Depression, which gave rise to "supply-side economics," the term I coined in 1975 while a member of The Wall Street Journal's editorial board.

It was inflationary monetary policy that caused the dollar to lose 75% of its purchasing power relative to gold by 1973, when its price climbed to $140 from $35 per ounce in 1971, and when OPEC quadrupled the oil price to $10 per barrel from $2.50. The commodity inflation followed and then came the adjustment of the general price level, as nominal wages and profits eventually rose by a factor of 10 to match gold's rise to $350 (after a peak of $850 in early 1980).

It would be 1999 before the Swedish Academy recognized Mundell's contribution to monetary theory and awarded him the Nobel Prize in economic science.

When Nixon closed the gold window that August Sunday, there was still a promise that it would be reopened as soon as the markets adjusted to the 13% devaluation against gold. But the dollar/gold price kept right on climbing beyond the "official" price, and in 18 months the markets were "adjusting" to a 75% devaluation of the dollar. Connally had left Treasury, replaced by George Shultz, coming over from OMB, where he had been Laffer's boss.

Shultz, a labor economist from the University of Chicago, where he taught with Milton Friedman, persuaded Nixon to abandon any thought of opening the gold window again and try Friedman's monetarism. They had the backing of Citicorp's Walter Wriston, a Friedman admirer who had hired several dozen monetarists for the bank's economic unit. Instead of worrying about the foreign-exchange value of the dollar, the Treasury and the Fed would now concern themselves with the quantity of dollars created by the Fed, the money supply. The idea was to feed the banking system with a steady 3% rate of increase in the quantity of money.

What nobody understood at the time, including Nobel prizewinners past and present, was that the demand for dollar liquidity would change as the tax structure changed. Higher tax rates caused liquidity demand to shrink and vice versa. In 1979-80, the Fed was pouring liquidity into the banks while the inflation-swollen tax brackets and Jimmy Carter's credit controls were sinking the demand for money simultaneously. The Ms looked like they were behaving, but the velocity of money was going through the roof and so was the price of gold, hitting $850 in midday trading on February 1, 1980.

When it became clearer that Ronald Reagan would defeat Carter and then cut tax rates, the demand for liquidity rose and the price of gold began an 18-month decline to $300 from $850; the Fed was still fighting inflation when deflation had become the problem.

The 1981-82 Reagan recession was the worst since the 1930s and almost destroyed the economy and his presidency. The deflation ended in the week of August 11, 1982, when Fed Chairman Paul Volcker was faced with a crisis in Mexico, which could not pay interest on its $80 billion in debt to U.S. banks. He had to tell the Reagan Treasury he could no longer worry about the money supply because he had to monetize $4 billion in Mexican peso bonds. The price of gold rose $56 that week and the financial markets skyrocketed -- bonds, stocks, the S&P 500, with Nasdaq out front.

The experience should have persuaded policymakers even then that a floating unit of account could do deflationary as well as inflationary damage. Here we are again, though, puzzling at the odd behavior of the financial markets, debating whether the dollar is too strong or too weak, and not quite realizing how heavy a price is being paid by everyone on the planet for not having a fixed standard of value.

The average price of gold over the last 10 years has been roughly $350, but it is now around $270, a clear indication the Fed has again been engaged in deflationary policies that have accumulated over time. The deflation will surely be ended when it becomes painful enough, by accident or by design, but when it does come to an end, there really should be serious consideration given again to a new international monetary system with a link to gold.

Jude Wanniski is president of Polyconomics in Morristown, N.J.

E-mail comments to editors@barrons.com

BR549

(08/13/2001; 13:21:26 MDT - Msg ID: 59499)

Sir James Turk

FOA (msg#96)

FOA-"OH boy,,,,, did everyone read J. Turk's latest? I did and am carrying a shovel with his name on it. (smile),,,,, if I ever run into him I'll use it to cover the guy up with praise and admiration! Fine work and great conclusions!"
And in the very next paragraph you say: "Of course, the US still owns it's gold and has yet to ship any of it's official stocks of the same. A quick check of the ounces held in storage will confirm that. Any physical gold that has "walked from our accounts", to date, came from some other supplier."

Huh? Isn't the point of Mr. Turk's brilliant essay that the "Fed books" are going to show that the reported weight of the US Gold Reserve and the gold stock of the IMF remain unchanged with no apparent change on the balance sheets of Fed and the (ESF) Exchange Stabilization Fund? He contends that via either outright fraud or the invention of SDR and SDR Certificates that 40 tonnes per month beginning in September 2000 as being dishoarded by Fed? Turk's conclusion is: "Now it appears that perhaps as much as 7,000 tonnes (227.7 million ounces) has been swapped for essentially the same purpose � to intervene in the market to fight the truth, rather than admit that the dollar has again become very debased relative to gold."

He did not mention anything about "other suppliers". He did speak about the reclassification of deep storage gold, etc. If Turk is correct, and I think that he is, then physical gold possession by individuals is the only solution to the dilution of our national treasury by corrupt officials of our government. So do you agree with Mr. Turk or disagree with him? Did I misunderstand you or Mr. Turk?

Regards from Cornfield County

escapethematrix

(08/13/2001; 14:04:01 MDT - Msg ID: 59500)

BR549.....Welcome, and some possible answers to your questions....

Hey there, for what it's worth,this is my take on it. You asked�

----If Turk is correct, and I think that he is, then physical gold possession by individuals is the only solution to the dilution of our national treasury by corrupt officials of our government So do you agree with Mr. Turk or disagree with him?----

That is the main tenet of the FOA/Another view. Buy physical only, as the "paper marketplace" is driven into the ground. Thus, I would imagine that he does agree with him. FOA's message and perceptions seem to operate at quite a high level, which IMHO would place him a few steps ahead in knowing the real deal.

I would think the "other suppliers" FOA speaks of could be interpreted as: Countries, which had to part with their physical during times of "economic difficulties" in various bailouts and swindles. It would seem that this is the actual physical, which has entered the spot markets to keep the paper game going all along. Perhaps that is what is being shipped out from "various Fed accounts" at the 40ton per month rate?

As far as the US Government committing "fraud", I suppose it would depend on if the US honors, or walks away from, the SDR certificates, which encumber the US "reserves".

In any event "the Gold Trail" is indeed a long and winding road. If you haven't read it all, you should check it out. You'll probably find the answers you're looking for. Good luck, and good reading.

Netking

(08/13/2001; 15:05:03 MDT - Msg ID: 59501)

The Dollar (R.I.P)

Trail Guides latest "gold":
". . . Yes, the war now is between the Euro and the dollar! The Washington Agreement placed gold "on the road to high prices" as it signaled a phasing out of Euro support for our American gold values. How fast gold can, now, rise will gauge how much staying power the dollar has in all this. If there is any gold war now, it's to be in just how fast the dollar gold market can disintegrate into worthless
IOUs! . . . "

Netking > "The dollar's day is done & gold's has just begun"(heck that rhymes! . . I DO have some talent after all!)
----------------------------------------------------------
PS: Trailguide also says: ". . . This action will scare most harden gold investors to death; especially the ones in leveraged gold stocks and lesser white metals! . . . "

Netking> The jury's still out on that last part, we can settle it on the price board in the days ahead yes(smile).

Netking

(08/13/2001; 16:26:50 MDT - Msg ID: 59502)

Israeli troops mass near West Bank town

http://www.cnn.com/2001/WORLD/meast/08/13/mideast.violence/index.htmlSnippit: "Israeli troops began massing Monday night near a town in the West Bank as Palestinians braced for possible Israeli action following a Sunday bomb attack.

Israeli television channels broadcast pictures of troops, tanks and other equipment, and Israeli warplanes were said to be flying overhead.

The troops' purpose was unclear Monday evening. The Israel Defense Forces refused comment, saying it did not comment on operations. . . " - Netking

auspec

(08/13/2001; 16:39:14 MDT - Msg ID: 59503)

Simply Me

Unfortunately I am old enough to remember HeeHaw, yet also 'party lines' on the telephone, black and white TVs, as well as the polio scare for starters. Some of those HeeHaw girls dressed up like Daisey Mae were cuuuuuuuttties!
Must have been too distracted to notice BR549. Thanks for helping me out.

Gold

BR549

(08/13/2001; 16:45:54 MDT - Msg ID: 59504)

Fed gold storage numbers correct or not?

escapethematrix (msg#: 59500)

I love your Handle and thanks for the welcome.

My earlier statement: "If Turk is correct, and I think that he is, then physical gold possession by individuals is the only solution to the dilution of our national treasury by corrupt officials of our government." wrongly implied that Mr. Turk was for physical possession. That physical possession gold solution is mine, (I do not know about Turk's feelings about owning physical). I don't believe in any paper, equities, options, hedge funds, 401K's, mortgages, etc. Sorry, for such a poorly worded sentence earlier.

I guess where I am confused is: Are the stored gold reserves, (approx. 261.6 million ounces) reported by the Fed still physically there? Are they being sold and replaced? Or stolen from the American people via "legal" paper fraud?

I am not talking about acquiring or appropriating additional gold from other sources via bailouts, swindles, etc to temporarily boost the FRN or settle US debt accounts.

Also, is it logical that there is no fluctuation in the amount of gold stored by the Fed if gold is being acquired for the treasury? Or sold?

If you read Mr. Turk's article, he speaks only of physical gold in storage by the Treasury being dishoarded and provides balance sheet and gold fiat paper trail justifications.

Once again, if you believe the Fed's non-fluctuating gold storage numbers are accurate, then how can you agree with Mr. Turk's recent essay?

Canuck

(08/13/2001; 18:00:27 MDT - Msg ID: 59505)

@ BR549

From your latest.

"Once again, if you believe the Fed's non-fluctuating gold storage numbers are accurate, then how can you agree with Mr. Turk's recent essay?"

One thing that I have had difficulty with is understanding the proportion of foreign owned gold within the 'storage facilities' (is this 'earmarked'?). Let's start off with something simple; go down into the vaults (how many are there?) and count the stuff. This has not been done since sometime around 1973/74; and it is my understanding there are persons not comfortable with that 'audit'. So let's say there is 8100 tonnes, physically counted. It is also my understanding that alot of gold was shipped just prior to WWII, to the US for safekeeping. So is the foreign gold stored amongst the US 'reserve gold'? The movie 'Diehard' depicts various 'cages' marked with corresponding countries
with 'their' gold within. Is it like that and secondly, this is at the Federal Reserve in NY, yes? Is the 'foreign' gold in NY while US reserve gold kept at Fort Knox? I can't imagine it's that simple but on the other hand why can't it be?

OK....back to the count, there 'is' 8100 tonnes; X tonnes are US reserve gold, Y tonnes have been 'swapped' with Germany for whatever reason and Z tonnes belong to John Doe Inc.

I think the facts remain something along this line, I hope someone can expand on this:

a) no one, independant of top US brass, can verify how much is there.
b) who owns what (why don't they get it back?)
d) there is a convoluted accounting system; I would bet dollars to donuts gold (physical) is being double-counted statistically.
e) terminology is confusing and it changes so that the haze does not clear.

I think GATA and the boys, amongst other things, are trying to clarify the Martian accounting structure that the Fed/Treasury uses when stating it's gold ownership.

So going back to your statement, the first implies the second. That is to say if the FED/Treasury's numbers are correct then Turk and GATA and PGA's are incorrect and vice-versa.

Flipping the table completely upside down, if the FED/Treasury are not jerking the numbers and the jargon around, then an independant audit and accounting would be welcomed and the government could offer guided tours in the vaults for crying out loud. It is the peoples gold not the governments and you the people (you literally for I am Canuckster) have a right to know what's there, yes?

Why this 'smoke and mirrors act'?

Collateralize your fiat, prove to me that a dollar is a dollar. SHOW me backing, SHOW me what backs this debt-burdened paper. SHOW ME THE GOLD! My bank makes me SHOW the collateral, if I can't secure the loan I don't get the fiat. Why do you get the fiat, Mr. President? Can you secure it; SHOW ME THE GOLD! If you have it, you will not have a problem SHOWING us. The world is getting nervous, nervous of getting cents on the dollar, SHOW US THE GOLD!!

Knew you couldn't.

auspec

(08/13/2001; 18:12:10 MDT - Msg ID: 59506)

BR549

James Turk's premise is that the physical gold is still in US posession, but has been 'allocated' to other parties. We are now simply the fiduciary of the gold, and may or may not act 'honorably' later down the line.
It is very strange to be looking back on this issue having already taken place right under our noses, especially as the suspicions of this very act have been pervasive. Yes, we 'all' looked at the ESF, but mostly in regards to their $32B slush fund. Parcelling out 7000 tons of gold, all the while GATA and all the gold activists were breathing down their necks, constitutes a brazen action and utter disregard for the US 'rule of law'. Such a surprise {right}.
Now, who is to say this gold commitment must be honored when required? Only the continued viability of the US$ depends on it, and the $ remains in a precarious position still.
It just goes to show all how stripped down our sovereign country and its Constitution are. The Secretary of the Treasury is paid by the banksters, not the USG. The IMF and ESF are out of control tools of an unconstitutional Federal Reserve and its global network. They all have NO hesitation whatsoever in deceiving elected officials or citizens.
That strong dollar had a few Herculean pillars behind it, no?
For those who don't believe in conspiracies or the PE {Power Elite}, watch this thing unfold. It will be a true roadmap to international financial and monetary mechanisms.
Looks like we no longer have those 7000 tons of gold hanging over the market. The IMF is accountable to the US Congress, wonder how{e} long they can keep up their dumping? Scalps are going to fly!
Regards,
auspec

Canuck

(08/13/2001; 18:24:27 MDT - Msg ID: 59507)

Petition gaining ground today.

http://www.thepetitionsite.com/takeaction/365824991?sign[partner_userID]=977161898&sign[memberID]=977161898&sign[partnerID]=1

Netking

(08/13/2001; 18:30:29 MDT - Msg ID: 59508)

"Middle East war within six months" - says Russia

http://www.worldtribune.com/wta/Archive-2001/eu_russia_08_13.htmlSnippit:
Russian defense officials and strategists project that an Arab-Israeli war could erupt in the Middle East over the next three to six months.

The widely-held scenario described a war that would engulf Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria, according to Middle East Newsline. The officials and strategists said Egypt could be swept into such a conflict.

"We are moving inexorably toward a war," a senior Russian diplomat said. "Russia has tried and the United States has tried to stop this, but to no avail . . . "

Got gold yet? . . . call USAGold today! - Netking

escapethematrix

(08/13/2001; 18:42:02 MDT - Msg ID: 59509)

BR549....re#59504

Hey there, Br549: I'll try to respond to your questions, but can only give you my interpretation of the situation.
Who really knows what's going on, and how it will turn out. All I can say for sure is that "The Gold Trail" offers quite the perspective to view it from as it all unfolds. First ----you--- then me.

----I guess where I am confused is: Are the stored gold reserves, (approx. 261.6 million ounces) reported by the Fed still physically there? Are they being sold and replaced? Or stolen from the American people via "legal" paper fraud? ----

Believe me, I'm pretty damn confused myself. All the Government misrepresentation and doublespeak is enough to give anyone a headache. Until "the big event" hits, it's all speculation. We'll probably find out fairly soon.
It seems to me that the gold is there physically, which would allow the static Government figures that are reported. Who knows since it would be such a bother to the Gov. to properly audit it :)It would seem that the SDR's are being and have been for some time, accepted as paper claims to said physical by various Oil producing Nations. The reserves seem to have been renamed to indicate to the Oil producers that the SDR claims would be honored as agreed, if necessary.It would appear that time may be close at hand. In any event, I agree 100% that either way the Gold is being stolen from the American people via "legal paper fraud".

---Also, is it logical that there is no fluctuation in the amount of gold stored by the Fed if gold is being acquired for the treasury? Or sold?---

It would only seem to make sense if all the physical is still there untouched, since delivery has yet to be demanded? Again, perhaps as TG has alluded to, the reclassification was meant to inspire confidence in our commitment to back our SDR's with real physical Gold, if absolutely necessary. As far as totally agreeing with Mr. Turk's essay, I think he reaches a few conclusions that may not take the "big picture"and, the "political will" of it all into consideration. In any event, it's a great bit of detective work, and one more piece of the puzzle. Hopefully with all the big brains around here, we can figure it out as we move along.

Take care, have a good night.

Black Blade

(08/13/2001; 18:42:15 MDT - Msg ID: 59510)

A lack of vision is all too visible

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3XPMR9BQC&live=true&tagid=ZZZOMSJK30C⊂heading=US
Snippit:

The fog of uncertainty cloaking US companies is thicker than ever - and drifting east across the Atlantic. Companies that spent much of the 1990s boasting about "the vision thing" are suddenly complaining about a collective "lack of visibility" - of orders, inventory and demand. The number of companies that has blamed what used to be a weather condition for their inability to prosper has exploded in the last six months.

Bill Meehan, chief market analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald in New York, says lack of visibility is not just an excuse: "Nobody that I know of, including the wizard behind the curtain Mr [Alan] Greenspan, has a clue where this economy is going." But he concedes that some companies may be using the term to "forestall telling the honest truth". For those companies, the fear must be that when the fog lifts, their problems will become all too visible.

Black Blade: The Pied Pipers may be blind, but it really is quite clear. It is the "R" word - RECESSION! We have slipped into recession and no one wants to admit the obvious. These clowns can use these euphemisms like "visibility" all they want. The economy is toast and anyone with a couple of brain cells to rub together would be able to see it. It is very visible as all the signs are there. Declining earnings, declining productivity, corporate layoffs, rising costs, loss of consumer confidence, growing debt, slowdown in consumer spending, etc. etc. etc. There is no lack of "Visibility," only a lack of honesty.

milos

(08/13/2001; 18:42:41 MDT - Msg ID: 59511)

(No Subject)

To reclaim Treasury gold US citizens should redeem their tax refunds for physical so it remains in the country. Let the smart asses figure how to obtain it without loosing market control. This will not only fix the problem but remove control from their slimmy hands.

Tree in the Forest

(08/13/2001; 19:01:16 MDT - Msg ID: 59512)

Canuck: Auditing Fort Knox, Netking: War in six months

Welcome to all new posters and to all returning posters.

Canuck: No sense auditing Fort Knox now; we have no gold there! If the countries who own that gold are concerned about it, let them audit it.

Netking: War in 6 months? How about war in 6 days! I don't think this thing will wait 6 months.

slingshot

(08/13/2001; 19:07:07 MDT - Msg ID: 59513)

Milos Msg#59511

My thoughts exactly. Cut off another avenue of escape.They can not use what they can not get their hands on. Sorry to say, the tax rebate will be used to pay off bills,buy school supplies or dumped back into the stock market.
Slingshot

Black Blade

(08/13/2001; 19:18:41 MDT - Msg ID: 59514)

Record U.S. natgas drilling fails to hike output

http://famulus.msnbc.com/famuluscom/reuters08-10-094543.asp?sym=
Snippit:

NEW YORK, Aug. 10 - Soaring natural gas prices last year spurred record drilling, but production in the United States is only marginally rising as old fields deplete at ever-accelerating rates, analysts said Friday. The industry will get no relief in the near term, as natural gas from new fields is years away from reaching the market.

A recent survey by consulting firm Andersen of 155 of the world's biggest publicly traded oil companies found that their spending on exploration and development in North America rose by 72 percent to $36.2 billion last year. Yet natural gas production increased by only about 1.5 percent in the United States in the past six months, according to analysts.

"That's pretty phenomenal given that we've had record gas drilling activity," said David Pursell, analyst at investment bankers Simmons & Company. "That's showing that base gas production is declining very rapidly and it also speaks to the quality of the prospects that are being drilled." The latest report from oil services firm Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI)showed that 1,047 rigs were drilling for natural gas in the United States last week, compared to the 647 average of last year and more than double the 426 average from 1999. "Prospect sizes get smaller and decline rates go up and it's harder to show top line volume growth," Pursell said.

Black Blade: As I said - natural gas is the real "sleeper" in this growing energy crisis. Decline rates in the natural gas fields are accelerating and increased drilling activity has not resulted in increased natural gas production. Yet all new power plants are NG-fired. We face an energy crisis of epic proportions that threaten life as we have come to know it in the US. We take energy for granted and yet we cannot live without it in the modern world. This recession has a long way to go and as we try to build more "Cheap Energy" capacity to no avail, this recession will make the recessions of the 1970's and 1980's pale in comparison.

Black Blade

(08/13/2001; 19:25:07 MDT - Msg ID: 59515)

Israeli Troops on the Move?

Just heard on the news that Israeli tanks are moving on the West Bank. Can anyone confirm?

Netking

(08/13/2001; 19:38:09 MDT - Msg ID: 59516)

Tree in the Forrest

Tree, You may well be right brother . . . I guess all divergent parties are now saying the same thing(rare unity huh!) . . . . a concern to those wanting peace and a confirmation to where things are heading. . . quickly.

I guess one of the few positive outcomes (given that scenario)is what will happen to the POG/POS.

Netking

(08/13/2001; 19:39:52 MDT - Msg ID: 59517)

Black Blade

BB - Post #59502 carried the last the I saw in this - Netking.

slingshot

(08/13/2001; 19:49:40 MDT - Msg ID: 59518)

Black Blade

World Net Daily has a story from BBC stating tanks roled in and fired on a police station in Jenin, Tuesday morning.
Slingshot

Netking

(08/13/2001; 19:50:11 MDT - Msg ID: 59519)

IDF tanks enter heart of Jenin; Heavy fighting reported

http://www.haaretzdaily.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=63265&contrassID=1⊂ContrassID=1&sbSubContrassID=0Israeli tanks entered into the heart of the Palestinian-ruled West Bank town of Jenin early on Tuesday and took over a building belonging to the town's governor, Palestinian witnesses and security officials said.

"This is a declaration of war," Palestinian Information Minister Yasser Abed Rabbo told Reuters . . .

annie

(08/13/2001; 20:47:43 MDT - Msg ID: 59520)

War:

Seems none of the networks, cable are carrying any news. Anybody seen anymore news? TIA, annie

uponroof

(08/13/2001; 21:01:59 MDT - Msg ID: 59521)

WAR...and rumours of war

http://www.debka.com/Heavy Exchanges of Fire in Center of Jenin
Early Tuesday After Israel Tank Forces Enter N. West Bank Town and Take Over Palestinian Institutions, Including Palestinian Authority Government Building This is First Israeli Army Entry to Town Under Full Palestinian Jurisdiction It was Launched Against Jenin as Stronghold of Militant Hamas in Reprisal for Deadly Suicide Bomber Strikes in Israeli Cities One Tank and Armored Infantry Column Advanced from South to North � A Second Entered Kalanswa Refugee Camp and Knocked over Palestinian Position � A Third Reached Kabitiye Palestinian Authority Loudspeakers Called on Jenin Population to Resist

Christian

(08/13/2001; 21:08:31 MDT - Msg ID: 59522)

(No Subject)

BIS=UN central bank. IMF=UN finance ministry. US Treasury Secretary is in charge of settling our trade deficit with the world through BIS with gold at $540 an ounce because it is the only thing they will take. Our trade deficit has been settled with physical gold now for more then 25 years. Our value of the dollar is the physical property we the people give in order to gain fiat $'s to buy things with. This growing debt value will force the dollar to become stronger and commotities weaker. People will be forced to save in their attempt to keep a roof over their heads. Every day a number of new hedge funds come to life using the ever lower commodity prices (short position) to fund their operation. It now takes $15 of new $'s to gain $1 of GNP. Of that $1 of GNP, more then half of it is nothing but BS GNP. Hedge funds do not contribute anything useful to the GNP. Our economy is made possible by an expanding debt structure. Our purchasing power is depended on the ever reliquification of that ever expanding debt. WE as a nation of tapped out debtors are now stressed to service that debt which has reduced money available for purchasing what we produce. This country is in the early stages of a nation wide garage sale (deflation). This garage sale consists consists of wilderness areas deeded to the UN for debt reduction. The UN already owns more then half of all of Russia's forests, owns millions of acres in USA and large tracts of land in many Latin American countries.--- Credit creation gold made up of a bundle of commotities ( metals, fuels, grains and housing) is what backs the ever increasing debt and makes the dollar have value. If you want to sleep tonight in a bed with a roof over it you are going to have to pay for it with $'s..... Gold is monetized as a vehicle debt creation and we the people had better figure out how to use it to our not their advantage. We had better figure out how to make interest payable to ourself or forever be serftitute to our central banks. How did it happen that we are so smart yet so stupid. Usury is a factor which makes a contract illegal. Yet we the people so smart sign on the dotted line every day and sign over our physical property in exchange for fiat $'s. How stupid can a people get. Are we so incompetent as not being capable of handling our own affairs?????

BR549

(08/13/2001; 21:39:02 MDT - Msg ID: 59523)

One last Turk

escapethematrix & auspec & Canuck & FOA�

I get it! "Is" doesn't necessarily mean "is".

So just because the Feds sell the gold doesn't mean that they deliver the physical gold. They only deliver paper SDR Certificates which are derivatives of SDR's (paper) so therefore some of the physical stored gold reserves, (approx. 261.6 million ounces) reported by the Fed has been sold or swapped but is still physically there??

Let's get a GATA inventory and see!

Black Blade

(08/13/2001; 23:47:55 MDT - Msg ID: 59524)

Israeli troops attack Palestinian town

http://www.cnn.com/2001/WORLD/meast/08/13/mideast.violence/index.html
Snippit:

JENIN, West Bank (CNN) -- Israeli troops withdrew from the Palestinian-ruled town of Jenin early Tuesday after an incursion a Palestinian diplomat warned would open "the gates of hell." Israeli troops destroyed a Palestinian police post and surrounded the town governor's office during the raid, Palestinian security sources said. It was the first time the Israeli army has gone into an area of the West Bank under direct Palestinian control and taken over a main government building during the 10-month-old Israel-Palestinian struggle. The Israelis withdrew from Jenin after less than four hours. Three Palestinians were wounded in the incursion, Palestinian sources told CNN.

Black Blade: One of these days it will be more than just an incursion. There have been calls by some in the ME to "punish" the supporters of Israel by cutting of the flow of oil. I doubt that will happen though as Arab members of OPEC depend on the oil trade to support their social programs. But still, it could happen. Parties on all side appear to be hell bent on stirring up the pot.

ORO

(08/13/2001; 23:48:43 MDT - Msg ID: 59525)

Ten Bears, others - will post as time permits

Time is shorter than expected this summer, thus posts stand partially completed and are no longer timely when I return to them. My reading can barely keep up with FOA's postings. Hopefully, a week long "window" should open next week and perhaps the week after. If so, I will indeed resume posting for that short while, and again when my schedule clears up towards fall. A few hours today (tuesday) and next might result in a post or two.

TEX

(08/13/2001; 23:57:21 MDT - Msg ID: 59526)

Surfacing For Some Air

Peeking out for a quick look around. Nice rise in the POG since I surfaced last month. Other than that.....HEEEEEEE HAWWWWWWW.......keep up that pickin and grinin!

Black Blade

(08/14/2001; 00:04:12 MDT - Msg ID: 59527)

Tyco to Cut 11,300 Jobs, Shutter Plants

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010813/bs/manufacturing_tyco_dc_1.html
Snippit:

BOSTON (Reuters) - Tyco International Ltd. (NYSE:TYC) plans to cut nearly11,300 jobs while closing or consolidating nearly 300 plants in connection with acquisitions made during the previous and current fiscal years, according to a U.S. regulatory filing made public on Monday. As of June 30, Tyco said it had eliminated 6,379 employees and closed or consolidated 58 plants from companies acquired during fiscal 2001.

Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" grows. Tyco screwed up and made several ill-advised acquisitions that hit the bottom line hard. Not long ago, David Tice railed against the company's questionable accounting practices. The Pied Pipers took exception. Looks like he has been vindicated.
View Yesterday's Discussion.

Black Blade

(08/14/2001; 00:30:04 MDT - Msg ID: 59528)

Citigroup Firing 3,500 Employees as Financial Markets Slump

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AO3h2AxTdQ2l0aWdy
Snippit:

New York, Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. is planning to eliminate 3,500 jobs in the coming year as slumping financial markets bite into the largest U.S. financial-services company's profit.

Black Blade: More carcasses for the "Bone Pile." The stench is getting very thick.

Black Blade

(08/14/2001; 00:37:47 MDT - Msg ID: 59529)

Midway Air Cuts 700 Jobs, Trims Service

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010814/business_airlines_midway_dc.html
Snippit:

RALEIGH/DURHAM, N.C. (Reuters) - Midway Airlines Corp said on Tuesday it is cutting nearly 700 employees, discontinuing service to nine cities and shedding 17 aircraft from its fleet as it deals with a tremendous drop in business traffic. The company said the moves are in connection with its filing for relief pursuant to Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. Midway said it has experienced a ``calamitous drop in business traffic'' this year, particularly in the technology rich Raleigh/Durham, N.C. area, where it is based.

Black Blade: That's more carcasses for the growing "Bone Pile." Not a good sign of the so-called "robust" economy as the Pied Pipers call it. A bit of Gold for insurance maybe.

ski

(08/14/2001; 01:59:16 MDT - Msg ID: 59530)

BR549 ... your PM manipulation question

You twice asked about PM manipulation as it relates to current market price. I usually spend a very long time THINKING about an issue and only a short time before I ACT on my conclusions; perhaps the opposite of the current investment crowd. So here goes.

In the world of investing, I no longer hold the view that some markets are manipulated but now hold the view that ALL markets are manipulated to varying degrees. If a farmer takes the time to polish his apples before taking them to market, is he not attempting to manipulate the buyer? If you wear a T-shirt that says "Eat at Joe's ... Best food in town", aren't you manpulating the dinner crowd? When your house is up for sale and you and your wife knock down the cobwebs and paint the porch, haven't you both conspired to manipulate a potential buyer? Do you remember PET ROCKS back about 1970? Ordinary rocks got mighty expensive. When you get right down to it, virtually ALL SALESMANSHIP and ADVERTISING are inherently manipulation! Manipulation is everpresent.

Most contemporary discussions of the gold and silver markets include at least some text on manipulation ... pro or con. I have great respect for professional people armed with the FACTS as opposed to ordinary personal OPINIONS from busybodies. GATA, Butler & Veneroso all clearly seem to have the facts to support a widespread and long-term manipulation. I have long agreed with their observations. The resultant degree of market distortion due to the manipulation is both profound and historically extreme.

Now for the clincher, "I am positively delighted at the possibility of capitalizing on this mega market distortion." How is that? My thinking goes like this, "The greater the degree of market distortion (manipulation), the greater the degree of subsequent market correction that MUST correspondingly occur when the natural laws of supply and demand reassert themselves."

Like most other investors, I wish that I had known about the extreme PM manipulation from the 'git go', as I would have waited much longer to make my moves. But the last time I checked, not a single one of us can undo the past. The real question them becomes, "IN LIGHT OF THE ONGOING, EXTREME PRICE MANIPULATION IN THE PM'S, WHAT IS THE BEST INVESTMENT STRATEGY GOING FORWARD?"

I have an active collection of investment wisdom primarily from World Investment Professionals that I call "Golden Nggets." Found below are the selected 'nuggets' that I think best address the above question.

115. B. Dohmen "Stay with an investment decision until prices rise or the facts prove you wrong." (Ski ... Neither of these two conditions have yet taken place in silver or gold.)

87. D. Dreman "NONE of us can escape the anxiety and doubt that permeates a crisis."

18. B. Dohmen "If you wait till their is nothing to worry about, you'll wait util eternity ... take your position and use stops to protect capital."

100. Ski's thought: "A great speculator looks for "REVERSE BUBBLES" (the exact opposite of BUBBLES or MANIAS) where everything that can possibly go wrong over an extended period of time (at least several years) HAS and the bear has fed upon itself to a point of hyper pessimism."

93. D. Casey "You are only likely to get 1,000 percent returns over a business cycle in those investment areas that have already crashed and have hit bottom."

96. Sir J. Templeton "Bear markes start at the point of maximum optimism and bull markets start at the point of maximum pessimism."

94. D. Casey "Make fear your friend."

91. J. Dines "A way to make money in the stock market is to find an area with explosive growth and mind-boggling potential; then investing in it as early as possible."

3. J. Bernstein "(no matter what expert writings' you study) .... we always arrive at the inescapable conclusion that profitable trading in stocks and futures can only be achieved by individuals who are either extremely fortunate or extremely disciplined. Discipline is a rubric under which are subsumed such quintessential skills and qualities as self-contol, consistency, organization, persistence, direction, insight, and the ability to take action when necessary. Unfortunately these are skills which cannot be learned easily or quickly."

176. Sir J. Templeton "Looking for a good investment is nothing more than looking for a good bargain."

214. D. Dreman "In a crisis, carefully analyze the reasons putforward to support lower ..... prices. More often than not they will disintegrate under scrutiny." (Ski ... This seems to be exactly the case in today's silver market ... no authentic reasons for lower prices.)

So ... Sir BR549, where does all this leave us? Theoretically, the PM manipulation can continue until the last remaining ounce is leased. In the case of gold, it could still be quite a while. In the case of silver, the game is apparently almost over. (Although both games could end tomorrow.) Maniplation or not, I will continue to accumulate PM's at these ultra bargain levels and will remain most thankful for this rare investment opportunity.

justamereBear

(08/14/2001; 03:44:13 MDT - Msg ID: 59531)

Ski

Some wise words. There are not many instant gratifications, particularly without side effects. You pay for everything one way or another, and I expect in this case it is patiece. (or frustration, take your pick.)

j'Bear

justamereBear

(08/14/2001; 03:48:27 MDT - Msg ID: 59532)

Black Blade

And what does the drop in Midways business travel say to you? Is it because they have so much they are not now required to travel, or that there are so few deals that there is no reason to travel, or that the community is so tight that they can't afford it?

j'Bear

justamereBear

(08/14/2001; 04:11:18 MDT - Msg ID: 59533)

Annie

I don't think I have seen such a welcome as you have recieved. Let me add my small voice to the thunderous ovation. The origional I missed due to other commitments, so it must have been good. But I think more of what you bring to the table is needed around here. That artistic thinking "lets turn it upside down and see what it looks like that way."

From one (somewhat unknown) artist to another. welcome. I like some of your questions. (thinking)

j'Bear

wolf

(08/14/2001; 04:20:45 MDT - Msg ID: 59534)

Petition : Give it your support

Clarify US.Policy on Gold and Gold Accounting :

Signatures so far : ONLY 1.435

Goal : 10.000

Deadline : ongoing .....

http://www.thepetitionsite.com/takeaction/365824991

Canuck

(08/14/2001; 04:26:20 MDT - Msg ID: 59535)

@ Tree in the Forest

That's an excellant idea; other countries could press for
an audit!

Canuck

(08/14/2001; 04:27:47 MDT - Msg ID: 59536)

Anyone?

How are the Swiss sales going? Very quiet lately. What about firing the BIS, where does that stand?

Canuck

(08/14/2001; 04:46:09 MDT - Msg ID: 59537)

@ BB

Just in case I haven't told you lately, you are the man.

Up in Canuckville we have our version of CNN/CNBC called ROBTV (Report on Business TV). It is less spirited that your version (I may be a little biased) but seems to be more believable. I must admit there are no 'Maria's' or 'Sue's' thus the cast is not as visually pleasant.

Last night's guest was an 'income and royalty' trust analyst. He was awesome. He gave one of my trusts a 'thumbs up' and was rather 'neutral' on the second. The highlight was his mentioning of a trust that was 'overweight' NG.

He was short term 'hold' on NG but long term ultra-bullish in regards to natural gas. Off to check this trust.

Thanks again for the notes.

Canuck.

P.S.: I respect your angle on advice; you won't advise a stock or fund, but will reveal what you hold. That is very prudent.

annie

(08/14/2001; 04:58:41 MDT - Msg ID: 59538)

@JustamereBear

Your artist-to-artist welcome makes me feel very special indeed. And you know how we artists like to feel "special"! I am always interested in sharing ideas with other artists. I would love to have an email correspondence. If you are interested, email me at WineTopper@aol.com.

Thanks again for the wonderful welcome from all here. I recognize the posters on gold bug sites as true free thinkers and intellectual elite and am daily in awe of the knowledge that is shared here. Thanks to all for allowing me to be a part of this.

annie

(08/14/2001; 05:19:50 MDT - Msg ID: 59539)

@ski

Loved your post! You are spot on about manipulation in both senses: in the broad sense it is used by all of us every day. We manipulate our kids to make good grades by encouragement and praise. And. All markets are manipulated to some extent.

A couple of years ago, when I was just getting into the "goldbug underground", I was very thoughtful about this "manipulation" thing. In a discussion regarding POG vs. strong dollar, I was told that "...a certain amount of manipulation is appropriate." Okay. But who draws the line? Who says, sorry, you can't do this because it goes too far? Who keeps the super wealthy from using their puppets and their prior knowledge to profiteer?

All said, manipulation does go on, often out of public view. And in a corrupt society such as ours (worldwide), it is to the detriment of all except the puppeteers--the super wealthy.

And, you are correct that the best we can do is to "...follow in the footsteps of giants...." What GATA is doing may bring this to fruition sooner than would happen otherwise, but the rubber band effect you speak of is gonna snap pretty hard.

Enjoyed your nuggets--especially the one about Reverse Bubbles. My second favorite: 96. Sir J. Templeton "Bear markes start at the point of maximum optimism and bull markets start at the point of maximum pessimism."

ski, thanks for your post.

BR549

(08/14/2001; 05:48:38 MDT - Msg ID: 59540)

"Pickin� and Grinnin"

TEX (msg#: 59526)-

"Pickin� and Grinnin" my way through life. I used to have a Sales Manager who worked for me when I was in the "real world" who I noticed hadn't scheduled his vacation for the year. He had a great sense of humor and worked his butt off. When I asked him when he was going to take his vacation, his response was�"I take a little vacation every day". Me too, and if you can't have fun, what's it all about.

Regards from Cornfield County

Black Blade

(08/14/2001; 05:59:14 MDT - Msg ID: 59541)

RE: Canuck and J-Bear

Canuck,

Energy trusts can be good for current income and have some favorable tax treatment as well. The Canadian version apparently has a few more perks. I am not aware of any PM version though. There are royalty companies such as Royal Gold and Franco-Nevada.

J-Bear,

As far as Midway is concerned, business travel just "Dried Up." Companies are cutting back on travel and some now are more likely to teleconference. These are cost cutting measures. There is a "Price War" coming after Labor Day. The major airlines are going to aggressively slash prices as there are now too many empty seats and few business travelers. Business travelers (business class) accounts for only one third of the passengers yet they account for two thirds of the revenues. The economy is responding to the "non-recession" recession.

Cheers!

- Black Blade

BR549

(08/14/2001; 06:27:00 MDT - Msg ID: 59542)

Golden Nuggets

ski (msg#: 59530)-

Another brilliant post by Sir ski on the art and science of capitalizing via disciplined investing in today's manipulated markets. Indeed throughout recorded economic history, supply & demand raises its massive head and eventually crushes the market distorters.

These Golden Nuggets of ski's are required reading for those putting their capital at risk in these uncertain times.

Black Blade

(08/14/2001; 06:35:52 MDT - Msg ID: 59543)

Forget the Second-Half Recovery

http://www.aei.org/eo/eo13154.htm
Snippit:

Every time I hear a typical analysis of the U.S. economy in 2001, with its components of global recession, investment collapse, falling profits, record deterioration of household balance sheets, and the rising need for companies to lay off more workers, I wonder when the analysts are going to lower their U.S. growth forecasts for the second half of this year. Notwithstanding a positively awful set of economic conditions, most forecasts from investment firms call for a 1, 2, 3 scenario: 1 percent growth in the second quarter, 2 in the third, 3 in the fourth.

The "easy as 1, 2, 3" recovery outlook is beginning to look like a bad joke. It is based on the simplistic notion that 275 basis points of Federal Reserve easing since the start of this year, together with a combination tax cut-rebate that adds about $40 billion to household income in the third quarter, will boost spending enough to justify the 1, 2, 3 scenario. That reasoning is both unsound and disingenuous. No one really knows how much-if at all-these standard countercyclical measures will boost spending and over what time their effects will appear. The rapid Fed easing has done nothing to arrest the slowdown in investment spending, the most serious problem so far in this atypical U.S. economic slowdown. Rather, rate cuts appear to have helped sustain a high level of household spending on autos and housing, but one result of that sustained spending has been a sharply elevated level of household debt. Interest payments on consumer installment debt are soaking up 3.1 percent of disposable personal income, by far the highest level since 1968, when a continuous data series began. As a result, U.S. consumer installment debt is also at a record high, 22 percent of GDP, while total consumer and corporate debt has reached 135 percent of GDP. With debt-service burdens at record levels relative to incomes, will U.S. households keep spending and running up more debts just because the Fed has pushed short-term interest rates down to "neutral"-that is, neither stimulative nor contractionary-levels and a check for somewhere between $300 and $600 arrives from the Treasury this summer?

Black Blade: DITTO! Can you say Recession? I knew you could!

Black Blade

(08/14/2001; 06:41:56 MDT - Msg ID: 59544)

STOCKS ARE JUST ABOUT OUT OF LUCK By JOHN CRUDELE

http://www.nypost.com/business/37304.htm
Snippit:

August 14, 2001 -- THE stock market rallied right on schedule last week, and the newest load of awful economic news will probably keep investors psyched for another week or so. The Federal Reserve has its regular meeting next Tuesday, and Wall Street now expects more than just one more rate cut. Until a few days ago investors had been anticipating one last cut - the seventh - and they then expected the Fed to lay off the economy. But last week's "Beige Book," in which the Fed summarizes economic activity throughout the country, was so disappointing that additional reductions in interest rates are now expected.

Black Blade: Good Bye "Wealth Effect." All that wealth gone to "Money Heaven." Of course even now, the markets are absurdly overvalued.

annie

(08/14/2001; 07:00:16 MDT - Msg ID: 59545)

Interest rate cuts

I have hypothesized before, without comment, that the Fed has "other" reasons for rate cuts. Other than encourage capital investment to reverse the downtrend and positively affect economic psychologies.

What about this: To save the financial institutions--temporarily. Non-performing loans--what an innocuous term--must be increasing geometrically. The past several years how many "financial disasters" have been skilfully swept under the Fed's great big rug? Look at the delta banks have between interest in and interest out. Doesn't this have to be huge?

And. When the stooges on CNBC talk about the financials, how could they not realize that this cycling down is going to take out some of them.

Okay. I don't know a lot about this stuff, so comments, please.

justamereBear

(08/14/2001; 07:52:38 MDT - Msg ID: 59546)

Black Blade Annie

BB Can you say recession/Depreesion? I knew you could (The deadly D word)

Annie Short note on its way 2 minutes Thanks

BR549

(08/14/2001; 08:55:04 MDT - Msg ID: 59547)

GE Jack's PR Machine

GE (that's General Electric) Jack's (Walsh's)PR Machine--

Oh, well it's back to business as usual with the "please, God don't let my teleprompter fail" types at CNBC.

Mark Shields and a few others tried to do the right thing for a brief (and I mean brief) period of time by asking their "somebody buy this dog my firm represents analysts" what they liked? After providing accolades and terrific reasons to buy these wonderful stocks, they were ask by Shields "if they owned it". In a remarkable coincidence, 100 per "shent" of them admitted that they did.

More and more it's, pump and dump again along with a constant tracking of GE news/price movements. Guess, they couldn't get any of these expert analysts to come on any more. How embarrassing for these experts to even be asked. And likewise for CNBC to attempt to try to do the right thing.

Of course, when gold goes down that is immediate news. When gold goes up, at the end of day it is reported that this is just because the dollar has temporarily weakened and after all, gold is priced in dollars. Then they run specials on "Fool's Gold" etc.

Tannehill

(08/14/2001; 09:19:02 MDT - Msg ID: 59548)

from The GoldenBar report @ Fool's Gold.com

http://www.goldenbar.com/Briefs/13Aug01Briefs.htmHere is the flavor of the article, more at the link above:

"Cheryl Strauss Einhorn had it backwards in her Barron's article, of the same name, this week when she wrote about the doubtful endurance of the aspiring bullion bull market. Fool's gold, from what I'd learnt on my geology fieldtrips, is not really gold. It is the stuff that we line our walls with when it becomes worthless, kind of like the new economy.

It is the stuff that central banks create on top of a small quantity of real gold� and it is ironic that by beating up the gold sector, today's paper bulls think that they have half a chance at bidding up the dollar, stock market, or conceptual (Greenspan) GDP for that matter. But the more the merrier� fodder for the emerging bull market in gold. This is not all there is to it. It will end when Ms. Einhorn turns bullish (jab)..."

Original thought for the day, have you ever looked down to see what is in the footsteps of giants that you might be following? Go ahead, take a look. I'll wait

^
^
^
^
^
^

That's right squashed goldbugs. Why do you think that is?

That's all from Tannehill

site steward

(08/14/2001; 09:28:23 MDT - Msg ID: 59549)

WGC's summary of the past week's notable action in the gold market

http://www.usagold.com/wgc.htmlOf particular note, abolition of VAT on gold has become a hot topic in Korea, which is currently 10%. According to the WGC, the parlimentary discussion is scheduled to continue in December, and that "a head of steam is developing, with some members of the ruling party espousing the need to abolish the tax."

Notice a growing trend here, boys and girls? Call it the result of "international political will". And the white metals remain consspicuously absent... (but if you insist, Centennial will be happy to help you obtain them at good prices, just like the yellow stuff!)

Tommy P

(08/14/2001; 09:46:43 MDT - Msg ID: 59550)

The IMF is saying nasty things, about the U.S Economy?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010814/wat024550.htmlWow, who ever thought this could happen?

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/14/2001; 09:47:52 MDT - Msg ID: 59551)

ski @ # 59530 and annie @ # 59539

Sir ski,

You asked and you said, "�haven't you both conspired to manipulate a potential buyer? �When you get right down to it, virtually ALL SALESMANSHIP and ADVERTISING are inherently manipulation�"

____________________________________________

Lady annie,

You said and you asked, "�You are spot on about manipulation in both senses: in the broad sense it is used by all of us every day. We manipulate our kids to make good grades by encouragement and praise. And. All markets are manipulated to some extent�But who draws the line?" Who says, sorry, you can't do this because it goes too far?

____________________________________________

My thoughts: I would like to draw a line in the sand. First let me offer the definition of the word, manipulation, according to Webster's 7th New Collegiate Dictionary � To control or play upon by artful, unfair or insidious means.

There is a danger, in my estimate, in broadening a definition to such an extent so as to become rather all-inclusive. So let us draw the line. In the above definition the word, unfair, is a critical one. Further the word, insidious lays out the heinousness of the word manipulation. Put unfair and insidious together and we get arrive at a means to an end. The end is to deceive and to deceive generally entails harm and the means is that of manipulation. The end does not always justify the means. I am going somewhere with this.

To lump POG manipulation or any market manipulation, for that matter, with the example of a husband and wife CONSPIRING to manipulate a potential buyer, by knocking down the cobwebs and painting the porch, is going over the line. This is where the line must be drawn. The questions must be asked: Is there intent to do harm? Is there intent to deceive? Is there intent to get gain at the expense of another?

"If an exchange between two parties is voluntary, it will not take place unless both believe they will benefit from it. Most economic fallacies derive from the neglect of this simple insight, from the tendency to assume that there is a fixed pie, that one part can gain only at the expense of another", says no smaller giant than Adam Smith in his masterpiece, "Wealth of Nations".

Let us draw the line here, lest we put our stamp of approval upon manipulation. I say this with a loud NO, NO, NO!!! Emphatically I say that "ALL SALESMANSHIP and ADVERTISING" is not inherently manipulation. When one takes a word like manipulation and broadens the word out to encompass any and all activities in which an exchange between two parties is involved one has gone to far.

It is bad enough to minimize the heinousness of the crime being perpetrated upon the public in the manipulation of POG. Why stop there. Why not go into the abyss with this thought. Are we to take it that motives are not to be considered, when accusing someone of manipulation? One might as well say that even though there is no intent to deceive, no insidious plan to do harm for personal gain, that when one induces another to make a voluntary exchange, manipulation is always involved?

What about God? Is He the grand manipulator of us all? Could the possible motives of mercy and grace not refute the charge that His attempt to induce us into the great exchange, "The exchange of our sin for His righteousness" is manipulation on His part. God forbid that we fail to draw the line before we render the whole of life and eternity to become sad exercise in conspiracy and deceit.

Let us call a spade a spade. When it looks, smells, feels, and quacks like a duck, it is a duck. God is not a duck. Every time an exchange occurs, WHETHER OR NOT SALESMANSHIP AND OR ADVERTISING ARE INVOLVED, manipulation need not be inherent.

Sir ski, the point you were making did not go over my head. You are quite right, IMO, in that the great manipulation of PM's presents a fantastic opportunity upon which contrarians may capitalize. May I quote you as I attempt to "sell" but not "manipulate" all my family and friends by asking them your question, "IN LIGHT OF THE ONGOING, EXTREME PRICE MANIPULATION IN THE PM�S, WHAT IS THE BEST INVESTMENT STRATEGY GOING FORWARD?"

Annie, when you asked, "But who draws the line?", you provided the springboard for this post. I was thinking, "A line must be drawn in the sand on this idea." I was thinking, "Someone must draw the line and it might as well be me." As I began to put my thoughts together I discovered that the line had been drawn in both the economic realm and in the spiritual realm long before either USAGOLD or I arrived upon the scene. Adam Smith drew the line in the economic realm. God drew the line in the spiritual realm.

Annie, I repeat part of your question and I offer an answer. Your question: "Who says, sorry, you can't do this because it goes too far? " My answer: Any manipulation is going too far. Manipulation entails unfairness, deceit, and intent to do harm and sometimes involves conspiracy. If unfairness, deceit, coercion or intent to do harm is involved when inducing children to get good grades through some sort of dishonest encouragement or false praise, then I say, we must not do it. It is wrong. If you have been told that a certain amount of manipulation is appropriate, you have been told wrong. If parents induce their children to do the best that they can by providing them incentives to do so and the parent's motives are not tainted with i.e. "how good the parents look their children make good grades", I can assure you that what the parents have done is not manipulation but rather edification.

I know that you would not tell your daughter that being a little pregnant as a teenager is ok. Neither should tell her that a little bit of manipulation is ok. The last time I held down a W-2 type job, my boss, told me that my problem was that I held everything to be either black or white, and that in the business world, some day I would discover that there is such as a thing as gray. That was 16 years ago. Today we have great respect for each other. I never changed his mind and he never changed mine on the matter of "black and white and gray". When I left his employ he told me, "Because you refused to acknowledge gray, I always felt safe with my assets in your charge." That brought tears to my eyes. That was when I discovered that he had understood all along and that I would have broken his heart, had I dropped my guard in the area of no compromise between right and wrong, good and bad. His compliment was the second greatest compliment I ever received.

Very respectfully,

HBM

PS: Adam Smith's ideas of a non-fixed pie derive from the Holy word of God also. So, you see, It was not even Adam Smith, who drew that line, the line in the economic realm, though we owe him for bringing the matter to light in such a clear and unambiguous way. God has drawn all the lines. All of the answers can be found in His holy word.

site steward

(08/14/2001; 09:50:38 MDT - Msg ID: 59552)

IMF says dollar at risk of sharp decline, euro climbs above .90 to 3-1/2 month high

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010814/nat000109.htmlReuters reports in this article: "The IMF said in its latest annual assessment of the U.S. economy that the current account deficit was unsustainable, and the greenback was at risk from a sharp depreciation."

AND... the dollar has fallen against the yen, too, despite the BOJ decision last night to further loosen its "ultra-easy" monetary policy.

You will want gold to see you through this transition.

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/14/2001; 10:07:41 MDT - Msg ID: 59553)

One more rate cut please!

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=d6&w=1&t=f&a=5
Sir Greenspan, One more rate cut please!

See above link. You are looking at the results of these extensive rate cuts by the US Fed while the rest of the world Central Banks hold thier ground.

HBM

site steward

(08/14/2001; 10:15:44 MDT - Msg ID: 59554)

Fed adds reserves, FOMC target not violated

Yesterday and today the rate was on target for the trade of overnight funds.

Still, the Fed was compelled to add $2 billion via 28-day repos and $3.75 billion via overnight RPs yesterday, while today it added $6.5 billion to banking system reserves using 2-day repurchase agreements.

Might these be compulsory actions to offset the withdrawal of big players from the dollar world? Or perhaps when that day arrives, the Fed will be monetizing assets in earnest, as though these current actions were nothing.

R.

Knallgold

(08/14/2001; 10:19:08 MDT - Msg ID: 59555)

No WA2 out of Genoa

But:has there been a "Silent Agreement" to let the Dollar down? It is important what they don't say'says theBelgian.It seems so.And the market says so.Will it/can it be still the controlled burn?

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/14/2001; 10:28:54 MDT - Msg ID: 59556)

Look at this link

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
And tell me that the London Market is in charge!

What I see is that the New York Market is and has been in charge for several months. When this changes, when the huge moves consistently occur after the New York close, the gig is up, IMO.

"Thunder in the night", means while the New York markets are closed, no?

HBM

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/14/2001; 10:35:42 MDT - Msg ID: 59557)

http://www.kitconet.com/exchangerates.html

See above link.

Look at the Euro and Yen charts!

Expect major US currency intervention soon. No problem, it has never worked.

HBM

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/14/2001; 10:37:31 MDT - Msg ID: 59558)

Correction of last post

http://www.kitconet.com/exchangerates.htmlSorry, I put the link in the subject area.

HBM

CoBra(too)

(08/14/2001; 10:37:47 MDT - Msg ID: 59559)

Black & White - and some Grey

HBM - your post to annie and ski touched a chord with- (in) me.
There used to be a time in my life when the word of your business friend of integrity was all you needed, like handshake quality, even better than a written contract, which today may be at the mercy of your or your business 'friend's' lawyer interpretation.

I recall being absolutely stunned by agreeing verbally on a gold mining deal, involving a Nevada deal, where every point of agreement was distorted into its opposite meaning, as soon as was written up in form of a contract.

And as I was storming into my associate's office in order to let off steam and my indignation, he calmed me down and said "that's what the American business man is calling sport"!

And, no, I don't feel that's true overall, though haven't we all lost some respect for dealing true in our daily chores? ... and losing respect in the end seems to be in the trend. Wonder, how this all came about? Maybe, we've been putting too much trust into the guys, who should be representing you and me ... frust! ... and as a friend said to me, you got to have a war chest to fight for your rights and it just may become more expensive than all your other social security.

Kind'a scary ... and please forgive my ramblings
...

Au will be my security - cb2

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/14/2001; 10:40:47 MDT - Msg ID: 59560)

Currency comparison chart

http://finance.yahoo.com/m3
At the above link you will find a good chart to print weekly for future comparison purposes.

HBM

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/14/2001; 10:46:08 MDT - Msg ID: 59561)

A good place to find the truth.

http://bible.gospelcom.net/Please see link.

HBM

site steward

(08/14/2001; 10:53:58 MDT - Msg ID: 59562)

The end of bullion banking as you know it...

The volume of gold cleared in London has fallen to 500 tonnes per day through the month of July; still very brisk by any reckoning, but nevertheless, this represents less than half of the brisk trade occurring four-and-a-half years ago when the LBMA first went public with its clearing statistics.

Factor the Washington Agreement into this decline. For perspective, please recall that the Washington Agreement was a voluntary policy decision by a consortium of major European Central Banks to alter/clarify their role in the realm of gold bullion banking operations. Notable, the decision was that lending operations would be curbed.

Are you starting to get the big picture?

When you do, you will want gold. Centennial can help.

R.

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/14/2001; 10:56:30 MDT - Msg ID: 59563)

Lease rates

http://www.kitco.com/market/LFrate.htmlOne month lease rates are on the rise. See link.

HBM

Sierra Madre

(08/14/2001; 11:32:36 MDT - Msg ID: 59564)

Mexico's monetary policy...

FWIW, I have the sense that Mexico's monetary policy is quite conservative (though I have no hard data - I'm not good on statistics) by comparison with the Fed's behavior.

Never thought I'd see the day!

By the way, our agricultural sector is in a shambles and there is great dissatisfaction in this important popular political area.

The Mexican government has not given SECURITY the prime importance due to it. It requires REPRESSION and that is not p.c.

Good things are brewing with silver here. Modest advances, perhaps to increase by year end. Will report later on.

Sierra

Sierra Madre

(08/14/2001; 11:42:09 MDT - Msg ID: 59565)

HBM: your post No. 59551

Thanks for sharing your thoughts on the subject of Manipulation! That was a great post, indeed. Much wisdom in it, and I say, Amen! "All Wisdom is from the Lord".

Sierra

Black Blade

(08/14/2001; 11:57:51 MDT - Msg ID: 59566)

IMF Report on US Economy - Very Grim!

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pn/2001/pn0187.htmIMF Concludes 2001 Article IV Consultation with the United States

Snippit:

Directors indicated that the size of the U.S. external current account deficit did not appear sustainable in the longer term and that it raised concerns that the dollar might be at risk for a sharp depreciation, particularly if productivity performance proved disappointing. A sudden correction in the current account deficit was seen as possibly having adverse effects on the United States and the rest of the world economy. Directors stressed that disciplined macroeconomic policies-including continued fiscal surpluses-would help to facilitate an orderly adjustment in the dollar and the current account deficit. At the same time, they observed that further reforms in other major countries, that would enhance prospects for profitable domestic investment, would also help to ensure that the adjustment of global external imbalances takes place in a manner conducive to strong growth in the world economy.

Directors expressed concern about the decline in personal saving and rise in household and corporate debt levels in recent years. They cautioned that if productivity growth turned out to be far weaker than the growth rates experienced since the mid-1990s, the economic slowdown could be prolonged, adversely affecting household and business balance sheets. At the same time, given that the rise in equity wealth in recent years had contributed to the decline in household saving, Directors noted that a further decline in equity prices could depress consumption and raise the personal saving rate in the short term, pushing the economy into a more pronounced decline. Although in these circumstances supportive monetary policy could cushion the negative impact, a sizable adjustment in household and corporate balance sheets would need to take place to reduce debt levels.

Black Blade: Doesn't Wall Street even read these reports? This is truly very ugly. It's "Game Over!" Everyone should read this! Addresses SS and Medicare, negative savings, economic outlook, and even CPI and CPI deflators (though one must read {between the lines"). The economic outlook is at best - Very Grim!

Black Blade

(08/14/2001; 12:04:46 MDT - Msg ID: 59567)

U.S. Steel to Shut Some Mills, Cut Jobs

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010814/business_minerals_ussteel_dc_2.html
Snippit:

PITTSBURGH (Reuters) - No. 1 U.S. steelmaker USX-U.S. Steel Group (NYSE:X) said on Tuesday that it will close the majority of its remaining operations at its Fairless Hills, Pennsylvania, mills due to the impact of steel imports, cutting almost 600 jobs and taking a second-half charge.

Black Blade: Adding to the "Bone Pile." This article should be read in conjunction with the IMF report (A Must Read!).

Black Blade

(08/14/2001; 12:12:33 MDT - Msg ID: 59568)

AOL Is Fine, You're Fired Anyway - Tales of the "Bone Pile"

http://biz.yahoo.com/st/010814/28687.html
Snippit:

Anonymous sources predicted several hundred to 1,000 lost jobs, this month or this week, in unknown AOL divisions. Besides citing nameless insiders, outlets also gave plenty of ink to analysts. (Note that when the media aren't questioning analysts' integrity, we're quoting them.) "Analysts said AOL executives began telling investors earlier this month to expect additional cost-cutting and layoffs in the near future," said the L.A. Times. At least the investors are well informed, unlike nail-biting AOL employees. Reporters' attempts to clear the air were consistently rebuffed by AOL spokespeople. The New York Post's Joe Gallivan, who was shot down by "three separate spokespeople at the well-oiled media machine," might hold the record.

Black Blade: These corpses are to be added to the "Bone Pile" next week according to what I hear. Part of the shake out of the Dot.Com mania.

Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD

(08/14/2001; 12:38:40 MDT - Msg ID: 59569)

Hard assets... Easy access!

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

Coins of the Month

With these specially offered caches you can
order online... all day, every day.

Each month, watch your collection grow!

ORO

(08/14/2001; 12:45:54 MDT - Msg ID: 59570)

Black Blade - hedge funds - kettles calling pots black

It is exactly the IMF and the BIS as well as the poor emerging market governments who did as they suggested who are wholly and completely responsible for the "hedge fund disaster" of 97-98.

The main culprits were currency pegs. The Asian (and other) governments took IMF suggestions for various forms of currency pegs, fixing exchange rates to the dollar. This is like offering free put options for the currency vs. dollar (most hedgies are domiciled in dollar financial centers in the "tax havens" and run from NYC, and London), thus the rates of return on investment within these countries appeared more attractive to the hedgies than they actually were, because of the currency peg subsidizing interest rates for incoming investment. A put such as substituted for by the peg would add 1.5%-2% per year (minimum) in hedge costs for the hedgies on top of borrowing costs. Thus the 7% interest rate spreads relative to dollar rates would turn into 5.5% - 5% spreads or less, and would have reduced the high foreign investment volumes.

When the hedgies blew up during the fiasco, they held emerging market debt and emerging market bank liabilities by the tonne.

Mahatir and the IMF, along with the BIS and the various multi-governmental would-be regulators are complaining that hedgies did their job and took advantage of opportunities the regulators offered for exactly those reasons for which these opportunities were provided: higher investment flows into emerging markets.

The crux of the matter is that the bank cartels behind the governments and the multilateral regulators are trying to get rid of the hedge funds that have competed with banks for client funds and client funding. The bottom line is that the hedgies are much more efficient and quick in allocating capital and have taken bank's best opportunities away from them on both the borrowing end and the lending end. Particularly unsuccessful were Japanese, German, and French banks, that despite sub-market interest rates provided by their central banks, had lost market share in all financial arenas. I can only hope that the hedge funds have enough political clout behind the scenes to prevent the bank cartels from having their way and imposing crippling regulations such as they put on themselves in the interest of preventing competition among them.

The bankers themselves were in the exact same predicament as the hedgies at the time and it was the BIS' raising of capital requirements as these same bankers demanded that acted as the trigger for the unwinding of the emerging market trade. LTCM counted many well connected Italian and other Continental government related organizations among clients. That is why it was allowed 20:1 leverage, just as banks are allowed more than 10:1 leverage because they have central banks (i.e. tax payers) to underwrite them and bail them out. The regulatory bodies are intended solely for the purpose of keeping competition out of banking. Particularly so in German and French banking. Most extreme was Japan.

Truth is rarely promoted by regulatory bodies. They routinely cause problems and are constantly in the process of finding a scapegoat to blame and allies to provide them with further power and less accountability.

Black Blade

(08/14/2001; 12:54:46 MDT - Msg ID: 59571)

Forbes Body Count - and Howdy ORO!

http://www.forbes.com/2001/01/30/layoffs.html
The "Bone Pile" grows unchecked.

RE: ORO - I hear ya! BTW, welcome back. As many of these hedge funds work with derivitive instruments they are quite leveraged and can move segments of markets with a relatively modest amount of cash. I suspect that we will hear of many more LTCM-type debacles before long. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(08/14/2001; 13:04:19 MDT - Msg ID: 59572)

Military Body Count - Nearly a Million Added to the "Bone Pile"

http://www.dismal.com/thoughts/article.asp?aid=1332
Snippit:

On August 3, the Defense Department announced a proposal sent to Congress to initiate another round of military base closings in 2003. Dubbed the Efficient Facilities Initiative, or EFI, it proposes a process similar to the BRAC (Base Realignment and Closure) process that involved four rounds of base closings in1989, 1991, 1993 and 1995.

Black Blade: And when the Recession is likely to be intensifying. Grim!

annie

(08/14/2001; 13:16:28 MDT - Msg ID: 59573)

"Manipulation"

HBM, very respectfully, in the words of Sarah Jessica Parker's character: "May I just say�WOW!

Overall, an excellent post and I congratulate you on the ideas and emotions you expressed. I am busily getting ready for my California trip, but I felt compelled to explain myself.

I was a bit surprised when, learning of your post, I went to dictionary.com and was unable to find a definition to defend my posted meaning of "manipulation". I think of words in terms of denotation and connotation, and�without looking the word up�I was quite sure that, although the connotation was negative, that the denotation of the word allowed for a much wider interpretation. I still wonder if an unabridged dictionary�one of those huge hummers that needs its own stand in the library�would allow for a "friendlier" meaning of the word. Without access to that, I cannot argue against your Websters.

I would ask you to consider, however, your dictionary definition: To control or play upon by artful, unfair or insidious means. I *think* that this definition allows that *any one* of the three would satisfy the requirement for "manipulation". So, I would exclude what you refer to when you say: "Put unfair and insidious together and we get arrive at a means to an end." If, as I believe, the definition allows any of the three to satisfy the denotation, I choose the definition: To control or play upon by artful�means". And I would choose "play upon" rather than "control". So I have a definition of manipulation that is as follows: To play upon by artful means.

Artful is defined as: Skillful in accomplishing a purpose, especially by the use of cunning or craft. Although this says "especially by�", I think that that applies to the connotation, not denotation of the word. I think that it is not unreasonably broad to define artful as simply "skillful in accomplishing a purpose".

So, I would arrive at the definition: To skillfully play upon with the idea of accomplishing a purpose.

With regard to my children, they would be the first to tell you that I was *never* "manipulative" in the sense of tricking and/or controlling. I think the part of your post that refers to parent/child relationships is what compelled me to "defend myself".

Other than the strict definition of the word (that I would not have used had I looked it up first), I agree with all of the ideas and emotions you express in your post. I am sorry that I was responsible for such a misunderstanding of what I meant by the word "manipulation", but I think we all benefited from the end result�your excellent and sincere post.

PS: And thanks for calling me Lady annie. That's nice.

Netking

(08/14/2001; 13:29:16 MDT - Msg ID: 59574)

Israeli troops massing near Bethlehem

http://www.cnn.com/2001/WORLD/meast/08/14/mideast/index.htmlHours after Israel staged a three-and-half hour incursion into Jenin, Israeli media on Tuesday quoted Palestinian sources who said that Israeli troops and tanks were massing near the West Bank city of Bethlehem.

The Israel Defense Forces refused to comment

Netking

(08/14/2001; 13:42:59 MDT - Msg ID: 59575)

Consolidation trend likely to strike gold?

http://afr.com/specialreports/report1/2001/08/15/FFX77NNP9QC.htmlSnippit:

Ownership consolidation is dominating Australia's mining industry, now undergoing its biggest structural change since the 1960s and early 1970s when the foundations were being laid to propel the nation's leading houses onto the world stage . . .

The question is: when will it end?

In the gold sector, JP Morgan analyst Geoff Breen reckons not until there are only two major gold mining companies left in the world - South Africa's AngloGold, rated the world's largest gold producer, and Toronto-based Barrick Gold Corp, now hard on AngloGold's heels as a result of its $US2.3 billion takeover of Homestake Mining Corp.

Both companies have sufficient market capitalisation to attract the support of large international investment funds, but the rest of the sector, including Australia's largest gold miner, Normandy Mining, struggle to remain on the funds' radar screens.

But major consolidation of the Australian gold industry is yet to happen . . . "

-Watch this space, Netking

JCF

(08/14/2001; 13:43:22 MDT - Msg ID: 59576)

"The conspiracy of the gold conspiracy"

http://m1.mny.co.za/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256AA8005F3C14?OpenDocumentThe life of a "fictional" central banker that one would SWEAR bears an uncanny similarity to Alan Greenspan. Very well done!

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/14/2001; 14:17:03 MDT - Msg ID: 59577)

annie @ # 59573

Lady annie

I'm glad you didn't mind being called lady annie, gladder than you could have known. It occurred to me that our posting handles are sometimes used to disguise certain things such as gender, and that I might have made a great mistake.

In my view you were not a springboard due to a misunderstanding. However, you did misunderstand me. It never occurred to me that you would manipulate your children in a coercive or negative manner. What I meant was that I sensed that you were certainly not such a person and that in the context of the discussion, manipulation was entirely the wrong word to use. I can assure you that I could tell very clearly that manipulating your children in the context of the practice of those who are manipulating POG and other markets, was a very disturbing thought to you.

I freely admit that manipulation can be and sometimes is a fair and non-insidious process. I am an accountant by trade and often talk of putting data in good spreadsheet form so that I can manipulate the data. In the accounting world, if we were to mean something other than a fair treatment of data, we would use the phrase, "massage the data", rather than, "manipulate the data".

If you were to go back to the posts by you and Sir ski, I think you would find the context, which prompted my post. The term manipulate in your posts was, in your context, a term which was very distasteful in your mouths. It was in that context and that context only that I responded. I was agreeing with you while trying to point out that some things such as encouraging your children in the way that they should go would not fit that particular context of manipulation.

All advertising and salesmanship is not manipulation in the context of your conversation. All parental guidance is not manipulation in the context of your conversation. Some people do manipulate prospective buyers in that context when trying to make a sale and some people manipulate their children in that context when they point them in certain directions.

Can you see my point. You were agreeing with ski in a generalization that all manipulation is bad and yet you knew that what you did with your children was not the same thing at all. A real important point I was trying to make was that, by lumping the actions of the "despicable POG manipulators", with a completely different type of action such as making an honest sale or directing our children, would have a tendency to water down the great evil perpetrated upon the public by these, shall I say it once again, "despicable people".

I will stand by my statement with the context qualification. Manipulation in the context of gaining an unfair advantage is hideous. It is always evil and never good, precisely why you called the concept into question when you used the example of your children.

Your posts are quite stimulating and have helped to liven up a rather dreary place. This site can and should be a place for the lively exchange of ideas and not so somber as it has been until as of late.

Very respectfully,

HBM

Old Yeller

(08/14/2001; 14:25:59 MDT - Msg ID: 59578)

Surprise,a mainstream media gold story

http://www2.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B5571EEB8-A3BE-453F-ACC8-23BF57169569%7D&symb=FN&sid=46428
That is actually written in a fairly bullish light.Yes,the US economy has some profound imbalances that cannot continue indefinitely.Of course,the old no-inflation card is played yet again,as if trillions of overseas dollars will dutifully stay at their off-shore homes,never to be seen or heard from again.

Also,there is absolutely no mention of the background work so skillfully researched and presented by James Turk,Reg Howe and GATA,among many others.However,it is quite interesting the one gold stock the writer holds is Gold Fields;which,as we all know,is a non-hedger and proud of it.

Thanks to Cyrano de BearAttack for the link.

Beowulf

(08/14/2001; 14:47:49 MDT - Msg ID: 59579)

USAGold

MK,
Just to let you know my order showed up today. THANKS!

For those who didn't take advantage of the Russian coin offer back in June you missed out. They are some great looking coins. I only wish I could read Russian so I could know what the inscription on the coins says.

-Beowulf

annie

(08/14/2001; 15:24:37 MDT - Msg ID: 59580)

(No Subject)

@HBMJust popped in to see if you had responded to my message. Your post honors me. Thank you.

I think that the gold manipulation has become for many of us symbolic of the manipulation that is going on all around us--the insiduous, evil kind. The Powerful--the super rich, the PTB, the banking cartel, the gold cartel--whoever "they" are, don't care for a moment about right and wrong. Their only objective is the maintain and enhance their power, i.e., vast wealth.

I recognized the expression of the feelings of frustration and disgust in your post. It hit close to home.

I look forward to mutual posts upon my return. And I always welcome emails.

"Lady" annie (just this once!)

Cavan Man

(08/14/2001; 15:47:35 MDT - Msg ID: 59581)

Consonace in Sound Reasoning

http://www.observer.com/pages/midas.aspFrom: The New York Observer, 8-13-01 edition

Will Upstart Euro End the Reign of Almighty Dollar?

By: Michael M. Thomas

Snippets:

"....what conjunction of forces, heavenly and otherwise, has allowed our circulating paper to rise and rise and rise in the face of practices that would have condemned--and historically condemned--any other realm's coin to currency perdition"

"In a globalized economy that is conjugated in trillions and large fractions thereof, there is at present, among all the stores of value known to man, no acceptable alternative to the dollar" "The dollar........is the world's invoicing currency."

"It started back in the 70's with petrodollar recycling. This was money created by Citibank et al in overseas offices beyond the regulatory reach of the FED that was, for all practical purposes, fully convertible."

"The dollar let us buy whatever we wanted whenever we pleased, including a considerable share of overseas productive capacity."

"Nothing that wholly distorts equilibrium is a good thing if it continues indefinitely, since disequilibrium produces chaos." "These days, we walk loudly and proudly, and instead of a big stick we brandish a fat bankroll--and we rule the earth, and large sections of the earth hate us for it."

"As for an alternative, a challenger if you will, I think there is one lurking behind the arras. An alternative whose consequences for the dollar and for this economy as it is presently structured, could be grave."

Read on.......

Cavan Man

(08/14/2001; 15:52:29 MDT - Msg ID: 59582)

William Manchester (off topic)

In reading the NYT today I note with sadness this fine historian's inability to finish his part III of his Churchill biography due to incapacitating illness.

Cavan Man

(08/14/2001; 16:00:10 MDT - Msg ID: 59583)

@CB (too) 59559

Regarding American "sport""Let the game come to you."

Anonymous NFL football player

(Only anonymous because of my "over 40" memory)

BR549

(08/14/2001; 16:16:37 MDT - Msg ID: 59584)

Widgenomics

Modern capitalism

Buyer = "B"
Shop owner="S"

B-Is this the Widget shop?

S-Sure, come on in. What can I do for you?

B-Well, I would like to buy one of your golden widgets. Do you have any in inventory?

S-Certainly, sir. In fact we have 261 of them on our books but 87% of them have already been sold.

B-OK, I'll take that pure golden one that I see on the top shelf on the left.

S-It's not quite that easy sir. You see we're not allowed to sell our precious inventory of golden Widgets because we are audited once every 20 years or so. If you'll indulge me a minute, I'll tell you how you can get a golden widget of you very own. You see what we did was that we took all of our inventory of golden widgets and issued gold widget certificates that represented each one of our widgets. We then gave these gold widget certificates to the IMF store across the street. The store across the street then issued some golden widget SDR's, which they then transferred to the ESF store at the end of the block. You with me so far?

B-I think so.

S-Good, then this ESF store then issued what they call SDR certificates back to us where our books would balance and we wouldn't get in trouble with the GATA police. We are not allowed to sell golden widgets directly you see, but there is no problem with us selling SDR certificates. Get it?

B-Sorta, well not axactly.

S-You see this IMF store was managed by my brother-in-law and his cronies and was very poorly managed. So we promised them that we would not let them fail. They wanted some of our inventory to get out of a jam they got themselves into. But since we are honest scrupulous store owners, we told then that we could not sell our inventory to them, but we could sell them or give them some of our SDR certificates, which represented our golden widgets that he have in inventory. Of course, we can't account for many of the original SDR certificates. They're missing. Must be somewhere in that pile of paper in the attic.

B-Why didn't you just sell the IMF store some of your SDR's?

S-Because that would be illegal and besides the ESF store owns them now, remember?

B-Oh yeah, I forgot. Ok, so how many golden widgets do you have in stock?

S-Well, we're not sure exactly because we keep them locked in the basement for everyone's good and we have some other widgets that we may not own mixed in there with them, but we think we still have around the original amount of 261 of them scattered around down there and we also have some in our deep storage basement.

B-So, how do I buy one of your golden widgets?

S-That's easy sir. If you own some widgets, then you can swap some of your old widgets, we'll keep them for you and then you can buy (or we'll give you) ownership of some of our inventory.

B-Ok, I picked up an SDR certificate that I got from the store down the street. Here it is.

S-Thank you sir. You have a nice day. Don't let our store's front door hit you in the posterior on the way out.

B-Wait I minute. Can I have my golden widget now?

S-No sir, not now. We're going to keep your widgets here, where they are nice and safe. You can pick them up later, if we're still in business, that is.

B-Did you say Nyuk, Nyuk, Nyuk?

tommy

(08/14/2001; 16:45:22 MDT - Msg ID: 59585)

Russia projects Middle East war

http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/breaking_3.htmlMonday, August 13, 2001

"...MOSCOW � Russian defense officials and strategists project that an Arab-Israeli war could erupt in the Middle East over the next three to six months.

The widely-held scenario described a war that would engulf Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria, according to Middle East Newsline. The officials and strategists said Egypt could be swept into such a conflict.

'We are moving inexorably toward a war,' a senior Russian diplomat said. 'Russia has tried and the United States has tried to stop this, but to no avail.'

Russian strategist Yevgeney Stanovsky agreed. Stanovsky, head of the Moscow-based Middle East Institute said a regional war is inevitable in wake of the failure of international efforts to implement a ceasefire.

The trigger for the war could take place in September. The Russian analysts expect an Israeli offensive against the Palestinian Authority triggered by Palestinian bombings of Israeli cities. Such an offensive, they said, could prompt Egypt to direct its Third Army to enter the Sinai...."

Netking

(08/14/2001; 16:53:10 MDT - Msg ID: 59586)

Gold rush: India's Q2 gold demand up 7%

http://www.economictimes.com/today/15comm02.htmSnippit:
"The country's gold demand during the second quarter of the current year at 235.8 tonne showed a seven per cent rise over the same period during the previous year.

The total demand for the first half of 2001 was 490.4 tonne, showing a rise of 17 per cent over last year's first half figure of 417.8 tonne, a World Gold Council statement said" - Netking.

Netking

(08/14/2001; 17:03:34 MDT - Msg ID: 59587)

U.S. plans sustained strikes in Iraq

http://www.msnbc.com/news/613702.asp?cp1=1Snippit:

"The drawn-out campaign was devised after the White House rejected Pentagon plans for a more aggressive air strike that would take out most of President Saddam Hussein's integrated air defenses in one fell swoop, NBC's Jim Miklaszewski reported.

The White House was concerned that a major attack would incite Arab anger and aggravate the current Mideast tensions. "Hitting targets one by one doesn't draw the same kind of attention or reaction," said one official, who spoke on condition of anonymity . . . "
- Netking

CoBra(too)

(08/14/2001; 17:24:29 MDT - Msg ID: 59588)

Let the game come to you ... CM - I had to ... accept ...

this game far too long ... though, I didn't ask for this sort of game to be played (nor the song)- and dam'n the ball is not round, but ellyptic, kind'a cryptic, shaped and for all to see - the ball is what I call out of symmetry.
The football, becoming a sign of the time when a-symmetry
becomes a symbol of in-equilibrity.
... Even ... the National Sport seems to contort a level playing field.

Sorry, CM, don't take it personally ... Though, just (th-)sink about your $ and do not beat about your mulberries ... i-am'bushed - not you - cb2

Buena Fe

(08/14/2001; 17:37:48 MDT - Msg ID: 59589)

ECB

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT384M62EQC&live=true&tagid=IXLC078IH7C&Collid=AnyFrance holds firm to ECB succession
By Robert Graham in Paris
Published: August 14 2001 19:19GMT | Last Updated: August 14 2001 19:29GMT
.............Thus French leaders prefer to believe time is still on their side, albeit not for long. They are comforted by a Brussels and Washington consensus that Mr Trichet is the best banker to run the ECB when the euro goes "live" next year...........
______________________________________________________
Is this a typo or why do they care what Washington thinks?

miner49er

(08/14/2001; 18:28:19 MDT - Msg ID: 59590)

Beowulf - #59579, What does my coin say?

I hope this post takes the Cyrillic characters, but simply your coin has on the obverse the denomination. I believe the 10 Chernovetz is what was offered, .2489 oz.(?). I believe there is a one and five as well... anyway:

"��' / �� / ��--�� "'��

1 / 5 / 10 Chernovetz

And the reverse:

��"�� --�� --��', --"��'��--�

or...

"Laborers throughout the land, unite." (Or as we more commonly coin the phrase: "Workers of the world, unite!")

My Russian is survivalist at best, but since you asked...

Best regards,
miner

miner49er

(08/14/2001; 18:29:15 MDT - Msg ID: 59591)

Beowulf - Cyrillic

Looks like it didn't like the Russian alphabet...

Oh well...:-)

miner49er

(08/14/2001; 18:31:01 MDT - Msg ID: 59592)

Beowulf - and, of course, it should be Chervonetz!!!

i need to go home, now...

auspec

(08/14/2001; 18:35:26 MDT - Msg ID: 59593)

Bottom

I see a nice shiny and round bottom, and it looks............... SILVERY!

Netking

(08/14/2001; 18:48:56 MDT - Msg ID: 59594)

Ausepc

McAgSpec, We are each smiling from our respective parts of the world yes. What's your "guess" on POS @ Dec 31st? - regards Murray

escapethematrix

(08/14/2001; 19:38:43 MDT - Msg ID: 59595)

Brown orders start on euro criteria

http://portal.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2001/08/15/cneuro15.xmlSnippet:

GORDON BROWN has ordered the Treasury to begin assessing his five economic tests for joining the euro, in an operation involving hundreds of civil servants across Whitehall.The existence of the operation to prepare what are described as "voluminous documents", examining all the relevant issues on scrapping the pound, was admitted by the Treasury last night

January 1, 2002 starting to loom large...Now if we could just get OUR Treasury to start admitting stuff :)

(08/14/2001; 19:40:40 MDT - Msg ID: 59596)

@ HillBilly Mitchell re: usagold.com msg#: 59551

Indeed sir, please allow me to humbly agree�
Thank you for your (persistent) eloquence.

Netking

(08/14/2001; 20:03:02 MDT - Msg ID: 59597)

Dollar tumbles after IMF warning

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0,,5-2001282724,00.htmlSnippit:
". . . The dollar dropped to its lowest level in almost four months against the euro, and also lost ground against the yen and the pound, after the IMF said that America's ballooning current account deficit had put the currency at serious risk.

The influential institution argued that the US economic outlook was highly uncertain, unnerving a market that was already pessimistic about the prospects for an American bounceback.

The IMF urged the Federal Reserve to stand ready to cut interest rates again, and highlighted America's record-breaking current account deficit as a key risk in the months ahead. "Directors (of the IMF) indicated that the size of the US external current account deficit did not appear sustainable in the longer term," the institution's annual assessment read. "It (the deficit) raised concerns that the dollar might be at risk for a sharp depreciation, particularly if productivity performance remained disappointing . . ."

auspec

(08/14/2001; 20:19:32 MDT - Msg ID: 59598)

Murray

My guess on POS year end is much worse than a barbarous relic, a Clinton promise, a Newt nicety, or a Robert Rubin code of ethics. It will surely NOT be $2 or .50c, Har, Har. This 'nodding head' says $4.95 for openers, jokers wild. Clif Droke would make a prediction of $9.95 POS along with simultaneous comets hitting opposing polar ice caps. I am not yet that foolish, or need to strike my head a few more times.
What do you say, netKing?
Regards,
McAgspec {leveraged, amplified, multiplied, and tie-dyed}

Canuck

(08/14/2001; 20:46:18 MDT - Msg ID: 59599)

Afterhours trading

Does anyone (Stranger?) have a link to afterhours trading for Newmont?

TIA

Canuck

(08/14/2001; 20:55:14 MDT - Msg ID: 59600)

@ HBM

Great post (59551).

What was the best?

R Powell

(08/14/2001; 20:57:53 MDT - Msg ID: 59601)

Netking/ IMF urging Fed. to stand ready to cut rates

I had thought the last cut from the Fed was going to be another half point and would doom the dollar. It was only one quarter. I don't know if the dollar can withstand many more cuts. Lower rates to save the equities but this medicine may be poison for the dollar. Just a gut feeling but another half point cut may send both the stock market and the dollar downward.
POS prediction, I don't really think the POS can get a whole lot higher than $20.00 by year's end but who knows?
The Silver Survey lists dishoarding from China during 2000 as the price depressant for that year.
Rich

uponroof

(08/14/2001; 21:21:50 MDT - Msg ID: 59602)

IMF provides the hatchet......saving Bush Adm from the dirty work

Well....

What are the chances that the IMF is providing convenient cover for the FED and Mr. O'Neill. We all know how very pronounced they are (especially O'Neill) on maintaining their beloved strong dollar policy.....

I say horse****, this IMF warning is a wink and a nod between manipulating buddies who don't want the markets to know the real intentions of the USA monetary braintrust.

IMF is doing the FED/Bush dirtywork in knocking down the buck. It was prearranged between them. All that's left is the (obligatory) phoney critisism from the white house and FED to cover all tracks.

.02

Black Blade

(08/14/2001; 22:43:14 MDT - Msg ID: 59603)

Dollar Slips to Fresh Lows Abroad

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010814/business_markets_forex_dc_52.html
Snippit:

TOKYO (Reuters) - The dollar came under pressure on Wednesday in Tokyo, hitting fresh multi-month lows against European currencies in the aftermath of a warning from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on a possible dollar decline. The dollar also hovered near two-month lows against the yen a day after the Bank of Japan eased its already ultra-loose monetary policy. In its latest annual assessment of the world's largest economy, the IMF said its outlook was uncertain, and warned that the unsustainability of the yawning current account deficit raised the risk of a sharp depreciation in the U.S. currency particularly if productivity proved disappointing.

Black Blade: The sharks smell blood! Now that the IMF has officially exposed the wounded dollar, the circling sharks are nearing a feeding frenzy. We could be in for "Interesting Times."

megatron

(08/14/2001; 22:52:07 MDT - Msg ID: 59604)

RPowell/Netking

Either of you familiar with Minera Andes? They showed some fantastic silver drill cores today from Argentina. Of course, no one cared. Some sections were in the 40 ounces/ton range.

justamereBear

(08/14/2001; 22:58:17 MDT - Msg ID: 59605)

Netking BlackBlade

Looking at the USD Index, Which seems to be leveling off, possibly to rise a bit, that Aug 20 date someone was mentioning is beginning to look more plausable

j'Bear

Netking

(08/14/2001; 23:12:53 MDT - Msg ID: 59606)

Rich / Auspec etc - Ag

http://www.mcalvany.com/specialreports/nov/silver.html Don McAlvany makes some good comments such as: ". . .During Lyndon Johnson's presidency, silver was removed from most U.S. coinage as the federal government began to develop far more inflationary policies (i.e., the days of "guns and butter"). By the early 1970s, silver (which the government said had been "demonetized"), began to rise in price along with gold, platinum, oil, inflation, and U.S. interest rates - ultimately rising 2500% by 1980 (i.e., from about $2 to $52/ounce). . ."

Netking > I see no reason why the POS should not repeat a similar rise (eg 2500%) over a similar time frame of say 6-9 years from a base of say $4.10 spot. This would also roughly equate to 1980's high in todays 2001 $'s yes?

Consider this, Don says: ". . . The Hunts did take very large positions in silver (i.e., at least one hundred million ounces) because the price was cheap and the inflation-induced upside potential was huge. They bought most of their silver under $10 per ounce and all of it under $15. . ."(1980's $'s).

Don goes on to say: ". . . In the late '70s speculators jumped into the silver market and gave the metal its final run to $52. The ultimate collapse of silver from this overpriced pinnacle was blamed on the Hunt brothers by Washington and Wall Street. But that was as dishonest as the non-stop economic/financial lies that come out of Washington and Wall Street today, and the manipulation by financial officials was as blatant then as it is today in financial markets.

The Comex and the CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission) changed the silver trading rules (i.e., they raised the margin requirements to 100%; they refused to let the Hunts take delivery of their silver; and they allowed only futures sell orders, not buy orders). Of course the market could do nothing but collapse. But first (before changing the rules) a number of the board members of the Comex and the CFTC shorted massive quantities of silver. They made billions in the greatest financial manipulation in history - up until that time and blamed the Hunt brothers for the collapse of silver. [ED. NOTE: Today's stock and financial market manipulations are even larger and more blatant. . . " sourced from http://www.mcalvany.com/specialreports/nov/silver.html

Netking > I see no reason why "something" such as the above would not happen again, HOWEVER as Sir Another has said by implication with Gold, once the POG(and POS) starts to "cook on nitro" there will be a dislocation of the paper & physical markets, . . . eventually. Remember in the late 1970's & 1980 there was much more physical silver around, this is 2001 & Rich will tell us that there is much smaller known inventory around today. Ergo, the next peak because of the preceeding, may therefore be higher(much). Factors such as POS:POG ratio would have to be tied in too. Will the POS return back to it's traditiional ratio of 1:16? Would it for a time go to the ratio of which it is found in the ground with gold 1:10? . . . who knows, not me(yet).

For December 31, given scenarios such as the USD heading towards "R.I.P. zone" the M/East bubbling away and even without the backs of the short sellers being broken I still feel $7.25-$12.75+ a conservative possibility. When the POS moves we'll see(IMVHO) a move and a retracement, a move and a retracement, a move and a retracement etc as it goes up for the next 6-10 years before peaking? My paper holding expires Nov '02, so wisdom will be needed when to offload.
- regards Murray

Netking

(08/14/2001; 23:27:04 MDT - Msg ID: 59607)

J'Bear / Megatron

J'Bear(59605) What "the boys" have gotta guard against is a flight of USD denominated investments from entering the USA and instead going(flighting) elsewhere. That's what's propping things a little at the moment, all the o/seas money still flowing in. If that stopped abruptly I things would implode.(IMO)
-----------------------------------------------------------
megatron (08/14/01; 22:52:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 59604)
RPowell/Netking Either of you familiar with Minera Andes? They showed some fantastic silver drill cores today from Argentina. Of course, no one cared. Some sections were in the 40 ounces/ton range.

Netking > Interesting Megatron, got any links for this with more info eg when's it likely to come on stream? What's your analysis saying about the market?

- regards Murray

megatron

(08/14/2001; 23:38:22 MDT - Msg ID: 59608)

Silver gab

These juniors have no love, although it seems the tightly held ones 'held' thier value. Yamana is shipping extremely high grade ore to Canada for processing. They are at about 25 cents! I personally believe in the immense power of the greed of political scumbags. Weeks before silver, or gold for that matter, is going to move, LOTS of these companies like Yamana, Minerea Andes, etc are going to pick up HUGE Bids. The info HAS TO BE LEAKED, so they(AG and pals) can profit. The volumes will go nuts, it's age old human nature. Look at the TSE PM index. That ain't farmers buying those $10 share gold and silver giants. One day the junior chart(riskier) will really pick up on insider info and then look out. Until then, silver $4.20.

Black Blade

(08/14/2001; 23:44:59 MDT - Msg ID: 59609)

Israeli Forces Encircle Palestinian Villages

http://foxnews.com/story/0,2933,32099,00.html
Israelis launch West Bank incursion

Snippit:

Israeli tanks and troops began moving around Bethlehem and villages nearby after nightfall Tuesday, apparently planning for another incursion, Palestinian witnesses said.

Black Blade: Here we go again.

Gandalf the White

(08/15/2001; 00:41:21 MDT - Msg ID: 59610)

Look OUT !! SPOT and SPIKE are getting VERY RESTLESS !

The size of the Futures trades tonight on Gold are acting Strange(r)! LARGE size on the BUY side !!
(OOPS a CB2 slip) <;-)View Yesterday's Discussion.

Old Yeller

(08/15/2001; 00:47:07 MDT - Msg ID: 59611)

Ed Bugos takes on Wanniski targeting the gold price

http://m1.mny.co.za/MGGold.nsf/Current/909083CA4BD3F1EB85256AA90010B7A2?OpenDocument
Looks like a pretty good refutation of Wanniski's rather ironclad view of what ails the US economy and his criticism of the Fed's monetary policy.Thanks to Earl for the link.

CB2;I see ol'"Boxcar" Droke wrote a rather complimentary piece on Coral Gold.Don't know if that's good or bad for the company,judging from his rather unusual tangents of late.

Gandalf the White

(08/15/2001; 00:51:42 MDT - Msg ID: 59612)

Don't believe that Down Spike on the KITCO Spot Chart !

Kitco is NOT TRUE !! Spot now at $276,50
<;-)

Netking

(08/15/2001; 01:34:59 MDT - Msg ID: 59613)

Dollar cont.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1491000/1491554.stmFrom the BBC - "The strong US dollar is in danger of falling sharply against other major currencies, according to the International Monetary Fund's annual snapshot of the world's largest economy. . . "

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/15/2001; 02:05:40 MDT - Msg ID: 59614)

Nikkei 225 @ 11,755

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^n225&d=c&k=c4Don't look now but Japan is now below Dow all time high(frown) What if all those dollars were exchanged for yen to purchase Japan? If not then gold. They have no storage facilities for oil in these quantities.

HBM

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/15/2001; 02:07:45 MDT - Msg ID: 59615)

JAPAN

Wouldn't switch to Euros would they?

HBM

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/15/2001; 02:16:59 MDT - Msg ID: 59616)

Currency intervention next

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^n225&d=c&k=c4Greenspan,

Your hint of another rate cut has frieghtened dollar buyers. How many dollars do you think bought with our gold. How much more gold are you willing to part with. Oh, I forgot you are not involved in gold.

Very disrespectfully,

HBM

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/15/2001; 02:27:51 MDT - Msg ID: 59617)

Incoherent and going to bed

Meant to Ask: How many dollars do you think can be bought with our gold.

Not in the business of buying dollars, you say. Not in the business of selling of gold, you say.

Just a little god who can only create and destroy, you say.

HBM

ps: Belgium, where are you?

Yukon

(08/15/2001; 02:31:02 MDT - Msg ID: 59618)

History of Counterfeiting...

To all who plan to watch the "Gold" series on The History Channell Aug. 21-24: you may be interested in the documentary "Making a Buck" to also appear on the History Channell on August 20 at 9PM. The two hour feature provides a cumulative history of counterfeiting from 600 B.C. to the present.

The show's writer and producer, Dan Golden (yes, that is really his name), said it tells eight main stories. Their pupose is to "give a variety of stories throughout time to give the history of counterfeiting."

Perhaps this show will reveal another all important reason to change some of your Federal Reserve Notes into true wealth that is free from "money creation", both sanctioned and otherwise.

Viva Liberty!

Yukon C.

justamereBear

(08/15/2001; 03:03:50 MDT - Msg ID: 59619)

Netking 59607

Well its a few hours later, and the USD index has resumed DOWN. Hot money does not take long to get afraid and leave. Speed of light these days. I am on record as supporting your position. The US has been supporting its current account deficit with hot money. I kept wondering why the lenders/ investors did not look at history. Every country who has ever had a current account deficit for even a short period, has gotten into Korea, Thailand, etc type problems. I have been holding my breath about this since Feb. 1987. I'm about to turn blue.

May god bless us, each and every one. It's going to be grim.
j'Bear

Netking

(08/15/2001; 03:47:11 MDT - Msg ID: 59620)

FOREX - J'bear etc

http://www.forexdirectory.net/quotesfx.htmlJ'bear, check out this list of live currencies against the USD, there's some movement for sure.
Glad our house is built on the rock! - regards Murray

Black Blade

(08/15/2001; 06:44:08 MDT - Msg ID: 59621)

NEW FLURRY OF PINK

http://www.nypost.com/business/37424.htm
Snippit:

Already thousands of heads on Wall Street have started to roll. Industry experts say as many as 30,000 jobs have been cut since the beginning of the year.

Black Blade: Tales from the "Bone Pile." More to come as the Recession deepens.

Black Blade

(08/15/2001; 06:47:53 MDT - Msg ID: 59622)

Dollar's dullness puts glow on gold

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0108150252aug15.story?coll=chi%2Dbusiness%2Dhed
Snippit:

NEW YORK -- A slide in the U.S. dollar against the euro Thursday drove gold futures up 2 percent, breaking the market out of its recent trading range, and bullion has modestly built on those gains. Gold's fate continues to be determined to a large extent by movements in the dollar against the euro, and that is likely to continue in the near term.

Black Blade: Why do they think we call Gold insurance?

CoBra(too)

(08/15/2001; 06:57:32 MDT - Msg ID: 59623)

Hello Old Yeller -

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/droke/droke081401.html Thanks for mentioning the aricle on Coral - might have missed it. PDG started drilling the secluded claim block a few weeks ago. CLH holds a 39% direct interest to production.
Also PDG is rumored to have hit a Carlin type hole only a few ft. from Coral's 100% owned core property boundary to the Pipeline property.
Thanks again - good and informed article and yes ole Louie is quite a guy - bye cb2

Black Blade

(08/15/2001; 06:58:49 MDT - Msg ID: 59624)

Days of Reckoning

http://www.thestandard.com/article/0,1902,28632,00.html
Snippit:

In the wake of the tech wipeout, the bankers who profited most are facing the fury of investors, politicians and regulators. Now that the magnitude of the great tech stock massacre of 2000-2001 has become clear - trillions in lost wealth, hundreds of thousands of lost jobs, countless dreams destroyed or deferred - the inevitable blame game has begun in earnest. And who better to hold responsible than investment banks?

Over the past several months, a veritable legion of legal and regulatory forces have lined up in a concerted attack on the once-staid world of technology investment banking. There are the trial lawyers: In the past six months, some 400 lawsuits and complaints have been filed alleging fraud, negligence, market manipulation and other conspiracies. In the wake of Merrill Lynch's recent $400,000 settlement of a case by an investor who claims he was misled by celebrity Internet analyst Henry Blodget, hundreds more complaints are expected.

Black Blade: The Pied Pipers are more apt to find themselves in court than on CNBC these days. The economy goes south and the lawyers (sharks) smell blood. For the last couple of years we have discussed this possibility and I said that this day was coming. "Interesting Times."

Black Blade

(08/15/2001; 07:06:21 MDT - Msg ID: 59625)

After the Long Fall, Tech Stocks Still Look Expensive \

http://www.iht.com/articles/29410.htm
Snippit:

NEW YORK Eighteen months into the worst bear market for technology stocks ever, many Wall Street strategists are warning investors not to expect the sector to turn around soon. The problem, they say, is that profits at first-tier technology companies such as Cisco Systems Inc. and EMC Corp. have fallen as fast as - or even faster than - the companies' stocks. As a result, many big technology stocks are now even more expensive, in terms of their price/earnings ratios, than they were last year.

Black Blade: I made this case before. Gee it's fun being right - just a shame so many people are made to suffer. This article should be read in conjunction with the previous one posted. Gold could very well break loose soon should this news hit the wires over and over.

Black Blade

(08/15/2001; 07:13:19 MDT - Msg ID: 59626)

The gathering gloom

http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=738642
Snippit:

There have been further signs of economic slowdown this week. The Bank of Japan has reacted by easing monetary policy, in a desperate bid to stave off recession. The German economy is also now in serious trouble, while the prospects for America look uncertain at best

Black Blade: Funny - {stave off recession" - I thought that Japan has been in recession for more than a decade now. "The Economist" never seems to get it right. Maybe they're just gullible. Anyway, the Global economy is in a deepening recession. That light at the end of the tunnel is an oncoming train. Time to add a bit of gold insurance.

Black Blade

(08/15/2001; 07:21:24 MDT - Msg ID: 59627)

Forget the Fed, save yourself

http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/fpcomment/story.html?f=/stories/20010814/644348.html
Snippit:

Confidence in Alan Greenspan has led consumers and businesses to rack up unsustainable levels of debt. But he can't hold off a major downturn forever. There's a good chance that, regardless of what Alan Greenspan does, a major downturn in the economy will come. Investor confidence in Mr. Greenspan rests on a string of Federal Reserve successes. Rate cuts brought us safe landings after the 1987 crash, and again during the Asian crisis in 1998. But it's Mr. Greenspan's very success that is to blame for today's difficulties. Believing in the omnipotence of the Fed, consumers and businesses have imprudently racked up unsustainable levels of debt.

Students of economic history will know we've been here before -- namely Japan in the past decade and the United States in the 1930s. In Japan, stock prices are down 65% from their 1989 peak, even though interest rates have been cut to nearly zero. In the Dirty Thirties, interest rates fell from 6% to 1.5%, but it was not enough to prevent stocks from delivering their worst performance in history. Both crises had this in common: They happened in the aftermath of heavy speculative bingeing, massive buildup of public and private debt and steep declines in personal savings

Black Blade: "Those who don't remember the past are condemned to repeat it." Gold and silver as insurance should be seriously considered.

Tommy P

(08/15/2001; 08:45:33 MDT - Msg ID: 59628)

CBS

http://www2.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/newsArticles.asp?guid=%7B208E0EC2%2DBCE8%2D4A8D%2D931E%2D80582BAA1DE0%7D&More main stream news!!

escapethematrix

(08/15/2001; 09:07:57 MDT - Msg ID: 59629)

O'Neill on CNBC at 2pm EST.......

Treasury Statement on Dollar Policy, O'Neill on TV: Comment

Washington, Aug. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Comment from Treasury Department spokesman Rob Nichols on speculation that U.S. policy makers are preparing to back off their strong-dollar policy, and that U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill would comment on the dollar in an appearance on financial news network CNBC at about 2 p.m. New York time.
``The Treasury secretary is expected to talk about the economy and also the rebates and the stimulative effect they've had on the economy. He's not expected to talk about dollar policy. There's been zero change in dollar policy,'' Nichols said

uponroof

(08/15/2001; 09:09:56 MDT - Msg ID: 59630)

POG getting an AM bombing.

The dollar swoons and so does gold......

Well now, lets see...

The dollar is supposed to swoon as the powers that be have decided it's time has finally come. So it is understood, and so it shall be. Gold is supposed to rise in direct correlation to the swooning dollar. So it is understood, so it shall NOT be?

If anyone still thinks the dollars for gold market is not closely 'managed', to the benefit of a select few please explain this AM's POG action. On the heels of an IMF dollar hit job one might think gold would perhaps be a little more in demand. At the very least this 'unusual' behavior condemns those selling gold this morning for their suspicious actions. I believe POG action is on the hands of those also responsible for the calculated lowering of the dollar.

This is called having it both ways my friends and it stinks. Gold market intervention is blatant. It also brings to question the basic validity of the so called inverse relationship....which is just what they want.

Can't wait to hear the explanation for this blatant AM bombing of POG.

I am hoping at the London close (noon) we get the usual bounce. Perhaps this AM bombing was even in anticipation of the bounce. We'll see.

Buena Fe

(08/15/2001; 09:19:06 MDT - Msg ID: 59631)

tremors

Watch the 30yr bond, CRB for major reversals. Ripple effects ........ things out of balance ....... PPT starting to sweat.

Tree in the Forest

(08/15/2001; 09:24:54 MDT - Msg ID: 59632)

DXY0

Dollar has broken below support at 114. Now around 113.6. 114 was supposed to be an important threshold.

USAGOLD

(08/15/2001; 09:32:32 MDT - Msg ID: 59633)

Today's Commentary. . . .More at Commentary & Review page for Current and Prospective Clientele

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.htmlIn Brief: Gold is tracking sideways today after a
fairly firm beginning to the week. The yellow is
reacting primarily to a weaker dollar versus the euro
and anticipation of further weakness.

Reuters reports that "The dollar slid over one percent to
fresh multi-month lows against the euro, Swiss franc
and yen on Wednesday as a warning on the dollar's
vulnerability from the International Monetary Fund
intensified its downward momentum. Bearish dollar
sentiment has been building for days and dealers said
the dollar's break of key chart levels at 121 yen and
$0.91 per euro accelerated its fall." We continue to see
comparisons surface both in the the mainstream press
and financial newsletter circuit between the current
financial atmosphere and the 1970s. In reading Doom,
Boom and Gloom's Marc Faber, we are reminded that
during the 1970s the dollar declined on the order of
70% against the other major currencies -- just to give
you a thumbnail indicator of what's possible during a
devaluation (de jure, de facto, or otherwise).

As the stock bear market digs its claws ever deeper into
investor portfolios, we are beginning to see those same
investors take out their wrath on a host of investment
banks they accuse of bilking them out of billions
dollars through phony stock offerings of companies
that never intended to build a market or turn a profit.
How many stories have we read in the past few weeks
about stocks . . . . . . (MORE)

I would like to invite anyone who has an interest in
gold to go to the link immediately below and register
for an information packet. That way you will be sure to
receive our first News & Views: A Quarterly
Review of Forcasts, Commentary and
Analsysis on the Economy and Precious
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to join us at our private access COMMENTARY &
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For a starter information packet which includes our
monthly newsletter generally considered one of the
best, if not the best, in the industry, please click at link above.
Yes! We send out packets to international prospective
clientele.

Tree in the Forest

(08/15/2001; 09:41:21 MDT - Msg ID: 59634)

American real estate

GLUT OF UNSOLD UPSCALE HOMES

Mansions priced at $500,000 or more may take 3 years to sell
By John Rebchook, News Real Estate Editor

The Denver area is saturated with thousands of expensive homes on the market, creating a glut of $500,000 to $5 million properties not seen in a decade.
There's a 27-month supply of unsold homes starting at a half-million dollars or more, said Jack O'Connor, co-founder of the Prestige Real Estate Group. O'Connor did a recent sales analysis of upscale homes.
There are 2,822 unsold homes priced from $500,000 to $5 million, compared with 1,971 a year ago, a 43 percent increase.
In some upscale neighborhoods such as Castle Pines Village about 20 percent of the homes are on the market, said O'Connor, who has been involved in the residential real estate business in Colorado since 1979.
A year ago, there was a little more than a seven-month supply of homes on the market in the upper-price range, he said. Now it will take almost three years to sell the homes, based on this formula.
"That's pretty dramatic," O'Connor said. "It even surprised me."
And it likely is understating the supply, he said.
"I used a really conservative method that I think absolutely can be supported," O'Connor said. "After going over these numbers (using historical weighted and annualized projections for the rest of the year), I'm convinced that there really is a three-year supply of homes priced from $500,000 to $5 million."

Trail Guide has predicted a rise in the price of all assets with inflation. Are you sure TG? Inflation coupled with depression can be a funny thing. Prices want to rise but can't always. Depends on how elastic the demand is. Now if foreign money bids for these homes because they become bargains in Euros, that's something else again. But I can't imagine Europeans wanting American tract homes or Chevrolets.

Thanks for the link can-can.

Sierra Madre

(08/15/2001; 09:48:21 MDT - Msg ID: 59635)

"History" Channel..."Gold!" upcoming series Aug. 21

The series "Gold!" starts Aug 21, I believe.

OK, I'd like to go on record as having warned all the ladies and gentlemen on this Forum, "Do not expect any favorable treatment for gold as a monetary metal with any present day or future usefulness, on any "History" Channel program".

I think this series is meant to bash gold.

The video will be stunning, but the audio...better push the "mute" button; you'll only be hearing the Establishment line, which we all know by heart.

These programs will be full of praise for gold, but as a stupid thing that people used to hunger after in "the old days". It's no longer "cool" to lust for gold. Gold is today useful only for decorating ladies and other women who are not ladies. Gold: a pretty metal but tinsel is just as good.

The praise for gold, will be a damning praise.

The "History" Channel is one more tool for manipulating people by re-writing "History".

Enjoy the great video. Push the "mute" button.

Suspicious Sierra

Tree in the Forest

(08/15/2001; 10:14:53 MDT - Msg ID: 59636)

The Economy: Going in the Tank Thanks to Comrade Fedgov

http://www.etherzone.com/bren082201.shtml
The creepiest cabal of commies on this planet is the US government. Thanks to Buster_Brown for the link.

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/15/2001; 10:37:13 MDT - Msg ID: 59637)

uponroof @ # 59630

Sir uponroof

You say, "...Gold is supposed to rise in direct correlation to the swooning dollar. So it is understood, so it shall NOT be?"

__________

HBM

It will happen, so shall it BE. It will happen when TPTB go long on gold and short on $. That could happen in a year or so. It could happen any day now.

________________

Your hope, "I am hoping at the London close (noon) we get the usual bounce. Perhaps this AM bombing was even in anticipation of the bounce. We'll see."

____________

HBM

I do believe you will get your wish, assuming your wish is just a small bounce (less than $10.00) If you are hoping for more, be careful what you hope for. Are you through accumulating?

Very respectfully,

HBM

Sierra Madre

(08/15/2001; 11:09:53 MDT - Msg ID: 59638)

Mexico's gold reserves...

Mexico's gold reserves (including "gold loans" which we know will never be recovered, and whose amount is not specified) amount to a measly 220,000 ounces.

Total foreign exchange reserves and gold are about $36 billion US; but the central bank does not dare to buy a significant amount of gold - it might upset the US Establishment. And we cannot afford that. The fact is no central bank anywhere dares to "bell the cat".

Sierra

site steward

(08/15/2001; 11:25:54 MDT - Msg ID: 59639)

Changes to Eurosystem international reserves -- week ended August 10th

Within the ECB and 12 member central banks the value held as gold and gold receivables declined EUR 29 million. At the same time, however, the value held as foreign currency declined over 20 times that amount, down EUR 600 million.

Gold reserves dropped by EUR 29 million within the Eurosystem due to combined effects.

The Bundesbank's issue of one million 1 Deutschemark commemorative gold coins involved the allocation of approximately 2.3 tonnes attributed to this week's book. (Nearly 1.5 tonnes allocated to this project were represented on the previous week's books while 8.5 tonnes were represented on the book one week earlier yet). In addition to this, there was a half-tonne sale by another central bank (likely the Dutch, who have yet to reallocate nearly 195 tonnes prior to Sept 2004). Taken together, these operations leave the consolidated Eurosystem with EUR 128.352 billion (12,543 tonnes) in gold.

By contrast to this small operation, there was a EUR 600 million reduction of the Eurosystem's foreign currency during the past week (as mentioned above), leaving the net position in foreign paper valued at EUR 273.1 billion.

With the majority of this being dollar-denominated foreign paper, this exit move seems quite warranted by the dismal performance of the "strong dollar" and its continuing poor outlook. Having climbed to 0.91, the euro has now reached a five-month high, whereas the dollar, having reached a 15-year peak on a trade-weighted basis in July, is now off by more than 6.5 percent.

The next mark-to-market revaluation of these eurosystem gold and foreign currency assets will occur September 28th.

R.

site steward

(08/15/2001; 11:37:05 MDT - Msg ID: 59640)

Fed funds slightly tight above target, Federal Reserve adds

America's central bank injected permanent funds into the reserves of the nation's banking system through the outright purchase of U.S. Goverment debt securites -- to the tune of $1.384 billion.

The Fed polished this up a bit with additional reserves added on a temporary basis, $4.845 billion provided through 2-dy repurchase agreements.

Offsets, or easy monetary policy? Either way, you had better bolster your personal wealth holdings with a legitimate diversification out of dollars and into gold.

R.

uponroof

(08/15/2001; 11:47:49 MDT - Msg ID: 59641)

This is not a GATA release...it's a CBSmarketwatch update

http://www2.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B451FBF5A%2D52E8%2D47D2%2D88DF%2D80EA1CA9A753%7D&siteid=mktwGood Afternoon,

Got this heads up from 'The American Advisor':

This is from a market report bt Myra P. Saefong, but it reads like a GATA update. The word is now in mainstream reports. A few short months ago these same folks were crediting GATA with providing 'humour' in a dismal market.
Somebody stick a microphone in their face now and ask them what they think about GATA.

"...Bullion banks are "trying hard to maintain a lid on gold's movement up," said John Mesrobian, president of Constantinople Advisors. However, "they shall fail in the end for they are significantly exposed to their derivative positions, dollar positions and short gold positions and will be forced to cover as gold powers through and moves up."

HBM-thanks for your support, I am extremely pi**ed at the never ending charade which gets more and more obvious. Losing money for the last 5 years, at the hands of those who shorted and lost 'MY GOLD!'(USA) in the first place, is getting harder and harder to take. I hope all folks here are as upset as I, and are taking action through a relentless written attack on their political reps. (sending that GATA CBSmarketwatch article along with this one would be a good start).

Sir, Looks like no big afternoon bull raid today and yes I am ready for payback. Thanks.

site steward

(08/15/2001; 12:05:25 MDT - Msg ID: 59642)

Regarding Beowulf's msg#: 59579 yesterday

---- "MK, Just to let you know my order showed up today. THANKS! For those who didn't take advantage of the Russian coin offer back in June you missed out. They are some great looking coins."------

To all:
I'm glad to hear that the coins are pleasing to the eye. Why? Because early last week I decided the time was personally appropriate for me to exchange some additional dollar accumulations into gold... just the latest act in continuation of a larger ongoing program of regular diversification into gold.

As I had MK on the phone to discuss web-related items, I took the opportunity to put in an order for some representative Swedish Kronors (variety in life is good!), a heap of sovereigns, some Krugerrands, and a good stack of the Russian Chervonetz.

And that brings us to the point of this post.

If anyone has a continuing interest in these nicely priced Chervonetz, I'm more than pleased to report that Centennial still has access to these coins -- unless something has changed within the past week. (I'm not under the impression that I laid claim to the last they had, but I can't be sure. Give the office a call and discover how easy it is to do business with one of the nation's oldest and most respected gold brokerages.)

R.

CoBra(too)

(08/15/2001; 12:32:16 MDT - Msg ID: 59643)

@ Uponroof and HBM -

Sirs, please also consider these are the absolute last 8.500 tons of au, most of it already encumbered -at least according to James Turk, tons of au, which "were" backing - at least somehow - the big float of the US $ fiat currency. Which again is (was) the main reserve currency of the globe.
Though don't forget that between 1967 and 71 - the time of the London Gold Pool - the US had already lost 9.000 tons and late 79 another estimated 7.000 tons. All in defense of the fiat - can u say fraud, debauchery or what?
Is this the end of the line ... ?

Regards to all of you - cb2

BR549

(08/15/2001; 12:39:58 MDT - Msg ID: 59644)

POG valued as PPP instead of FRN

The flippant statement that I posted the other day about CNBC's stating that the price of gold temporarily going up was the result of the dollar coming down. This was their justification and the only good thing they had to same about the recent rise in the POG.

But now that I think about it, isn't this what happened? So why is gold priced in FRN's? Because Greenspan, via going back on an unofficial fiat based gold standard, has made the U$ the world's standard currency pegging the dollar at around $275/oz.(+ or -)More plus lately than minus.

A recent post brought to my attention again that Greenspan has testified to Congress "that commodity market signals provide more useful and timely information than the official government data on prices, unemployment, national income and so forth."

So why is gold priced in U$ dollars, or Euro's, or any currency? When the dollar weakens, the price of gold goes up. But does it? Really what happens is the "relative price" of gold goes up.

Instead of the dollar, why not price gold in terms of a relative basket of goods and services that gold will buy. CRB 17 attempts to value the FRN in relative terms of buying power (some argue very corruptly), so why not gold?

I researched and found that there is an index that compares "currencies" relative buying power in reference to a basket of goods and services. A simple conversion of this basket of goods and services to gold should be possible.

"Purchasing power parities (PPPs) are the rates of currency conversion that equalise the purchasing power of different currencies by eliminating the differences in price levels between countries. This means that a given sum of money, when converted into different currencies at PPP rates, will buy the same basket of goods and services in all countries.

Current exchange rates on the other hand, do not reflect the relative purchasing powers of different currencies because they do not eliminate the differences in price levels between countries. Hence, a given sum of money converted into different currencies using exchange rates will not buy the same quantity of goods and services in all countries. "

Why not gold?

sector

(08/15/2001; 13:17:58 MDT - Msg ID: 59645)

@uponroof The Good SDR News...

...is that the cabal is just about out of paper gold (SDRs) with which to suppress pog. There is evidence on the LBMA too. 16.1 million ounces transferred in July is the lowest on the public record since 1996. I read this as the big traders stepping back as they realize the charade of the "government price keeping action" is at an end.

The weight of evidence, journalist's attention and speculator awareness will smash the cabal long before October 9, 2001. Think of it, now that SDRs have been identified as proxies for physical gold their draw down is a clear view at the remaining supply...something speculators have always lusted after.

Currency crises experts such as Maury Obstfeld, UCLA describe a sudden [read instantaneous] collapse in government currency support measures as the norm. So we can confidently predict a rapid break in the gold market defense.

ALL the available cheap gold will dissappear in less than a day...one can count on it.

MarkeTalk

(08/15/2001; 13:24:39 MDT - Msg ID: 59646)

Saddam Hussein ready to attack?

http://www.ddolan.com/update.htmlDavid Dolan's Middle East report, which I consider to be head and shoulders above all others, reiterated the fact that Saddam Hussein is readying his troops (seven million "volunteers") to march on Jerusalem in preparation for a looming "war to liberate the holy city from Zionist occupation."

I find it more than coincidence that the following events are occuring at this time: a crashing U.S. Dollar (July 5th was the exact top), a gold price that is on the move (July 25-27th was the most recent low), and now a looming Middle East war. My friends, it is the power of synchronicity and the cycles which run through the markets and nature itself. The key is to discern the signs of the times--and these times are indeed becoming more turbulent with more volcanoes and eruptions (political and economic). Welcome to the endtimes. Mt. Etna is just symbolic of the upheaval that is ready to take place.

Combine the foregoing with the latest revelations from James Turk and perhaps my earlier prediction of $350/oz. by Christmas is too conservative. Arch Crawford believes we will see quick move to $300/oz. by September 1st! Something big is brewing out there. And don't forget about August 19th and the possibility that the Russians are ready to dump billions of U.S. Dollars on the market. In closing, I am urging all of my clients here at Centennial to add to their gold positions at these low prices. Call me before it is too late!

GC

Netking

(08/15/2001; 13:47:38 MDT - Msg ID: 59647)

Israel considers full-scale move into West Bank

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2001/08/15/invade-usat.htmSnippit:
"Expecting an increase in suicide bomb attacks, Israel has drawn up plans to greatly increase its use of force against the Palestinian Authority, senior Israeli officials told USA TODAY Tuesday. Israel also is debating an all-out invasion of the West Bank in response to another suicide bombing, they said. Underlining the policy of rooting out terrorism in Palestinian areas, Israeli troops and tanks took positions today . . . "
-----------------------------------------------------------
There's gonna be some suprised people in the days ahead with what happens. . . some folks will say with regards to the economy & M/East: "I didn't things were going to get THAT bad" . . . Some will will wish they bought gold earlier, lets hope none on this forum are part of that group. - regards Murray

colourofmoney

(08/15/2001; 13:54:22 MDT - Msg ID: 59648)

Gold, wars and dollars

NetkingGold certainly doesn't act like a rocket with the perspective of an invasion of the West Bank and the fact that the dollar got hammered real bad didn't help either.

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/15/2001; 13:59:04 MDT - Msg ID: 59649)

Is this a serious move? See link

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=iI do not remember seeing a three day move of the dollar like this since I have been gazing at these charts for over a year now. Is this new? Anyone know if this has happened since the introduction of the Euro.

HBM

site steward

(08/15/2001; 14:08:47 MDT - Msg ID: 59650)

BR549 on PPPs

You said, "I researched and found that there is an index that compares "currencies" relative buying power in reference to a basket of goods and services. A simple conversion of this basket of goods and services to gold should be possible."

I'm not sure that I follow your thoughts on this, so don't read too much into this reply if it seems off base. At the present time, similar to the international currencies implied in your example, a fixed quantity of gold will buy a basket of currency that varies in size from country to country. It, too, can be adjusted by the PPP from nation to nation to reflect its differing local purchasing power -- a phenomenon that represents unique local conditions, whereas unadjusted exchange rates "simply" represent the clearing levels needed for balance on the global economic stage.

R.

Netking

(08/15/2001; 14:09:09 MDT - Msg ID: 59651)

Color of money

Sir COM, the future is at the very best "uncertain" (IMHO).

The USD is in bear phase, the markets are in & will have a propensity towards much greater turmoil in the days ahead like we have not seen in a long time. (I refer the future, not a one week wonder scenario)

Given all of the events & scenarios (as outlined on the forum in recent days). . . the days ahead . . . capital will seek a safe haven, gold will be near the top of this list as capital takes flight.

This is gold's time to shine . . .

CoBra(too)

(08/15/2001; 14:09:50 MDT - Msg ID: 59652)

Sound Advice - from Mark Talk -

Barman says - gents last call - fill up your pints for the road home, today - and hey, before you can't afford to stay - another round as we may wish to mark up our liquid(ity) reserves - substantially!

Hope all of you will be able to afford another round - another day ... see u cb2

Cavan Man

(08/15/2001; 14:21:39 MDT - Msg ID: 59653)

CB (too) and GC

Agree but, get one for the road and not "one for the ditch" aka a "ditcher". Barman, bring another pitcher!

PS: If I thoguht I had a business plan for the next McDonalds I would wait before implementing and buy gold now; right now. of course, a little "unemcumbered gold"; c'est tres bien mon ami?

Tree in the Forest

(08/15/2001; 14:35:23 MDT - Msg ID: 59654)

HBM

Yeah it's a pretty good drop but nothing compared to what will happen when it breaks below 108.

Netking

(08/15/2001; 14:40:13 MDT - Msg ID: 59655)

Silver - Ted Butler

http://www.investmentrarities.com/08-14-01.htmlThe latest from Ted, focusing this week on topic of "The Commitments of Traders Report".

Snippit: ". . . This article about silver is going to be different from other articles I've written. As you know, I feel the most important aspects to the silver market are the continuing physical deficit, leasing and the paper short position. These factors account for the persistent low price amid production/consumption shortfalls and disappearing inventories. These factors will account for the certain price explosion to come. But, in the quest for knowledge about silver, there are other factors that effect the price, but are separate and distinct from the bedrock supply/demand fundamentals. I'd like to devote this article to a report that analyzes the most important near-term influence on the price of silver - trading on the New York Commodity Exchange, Inc. (COMEX). The report that offers this analysis is the Commitments of Traders Report (COT), published by the US Commodity Futures . . . "

Black Blade

(08/15/2001; 14:54:44 MDT - Msg ID: 59656)

Bone Pile Grows

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010815/n15202036.html
Speedfam to cut 18 percent of workforce

Snippit:

CHANDLER, Ariz., Aug 15 (Reuters) - Semiconductor manufacturing equipment provider Speedfam-IPEC Inc. (Nasdaq: SFAM) said on Wednesday it would lay off 160 employees, or 18 percent of its workforce, in a move to reduce operating costs.

Black Blade: Adding to the "Bone Pile."

Black Blade

(08/15/2001; 14:59:35 MDT - Msg ID: 59657)

Heaping Up More "Bones"

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010815/n15141545_3.htmlMotorola sees some job cuts as Ariz chip lines go

Snippit:

CHICAGO, Aug 15 (Reuters) - Wireless technology giant Motorola Inc. (NYSE:MOT - news) on Wednesday said it would close two semiconductor plants in Mesa, Arizona, over the next two and a half years, as it strives to turn around its money-losing chip unit.

Black Blade: Ditto! More "Bones" to heap on the pile. Not a good sign as the economy tanks. Unfortunately many of these people are "Grasshoppers" who are not prepared. A bit of PM insurance and savings would be of help instead of the worry that these poor souls are about to face.

Tommy P

(08/15/2001; 15:02:36 MDT - Msg ID: 59658)

Bone pile grows even higher!!

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010815/bs/airlines_midway_dc_7.htmlLook out below!

Black Blade

(08/15/2001; 15:07:14 MDT - Msg ID: 59659)

I'm Tripping Over Lots of "Bones"

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/010815/152554.htmlCorning Cable Systems Announces Workforce Reductions

Snippit:

CORNING, N.Y. & HICKORY, N.C.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug. 15, 2001-- Corning Incorporated (NYSE:GLW) today announced that, effective immediately, Corning Cable Systems has reduced the workforce in its NAFTA region facilities to further align costs with current business conditions as a decline in the telecommunications industry continues. Approximately 450 hourly and salaried positions at Corning Cable Systems locations in North Carolina, Texas, Missouri, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and Mexico have been eliminated. Additionally, the company has announced that another 450 employees have accepted one of three voluntary separation offers made by the company on August 3, 2001. That program gave employees a choice of taking early retirement, voluntary severance or voluntary layoff.

These job reductions bring Corning Cable Systems' total employment reductions since May 2001 to about 1,140 or 8 percent of its worldwide workforce of 14,000. Excluding today's Corning Cable Systems reductions, Corning Incorporated has eliminated approximately 5,900 positions this year. These reductions have been in response to the industry-wide downturn in the telecommunications sector.

Black Blade: Oh jeez - More "Bones" on the "Bone Pile." This is not a healthy economy.

CoBra(too)

(08/15/2001; 15:11:04 MDT - Msg ID: 59660)

Gold Stock Indices had a great Day!

To whom it may concern! Who da ya think you're kiddin'?
All my gold stocks are up today and so are the gold indices. Only POG was down a little spittle as the PPT is even running out of natural liquidity.

What'dya say, e-bay - selling reality beats virtuality any day!

cb2

Hey, CM - how about extending an invite to the PPT - One for the Ditch - ask my female Beagle ... as she always barks when I mention last ditch efforts of sorts by the cohorts - of the president's (hatchet)men - amen...

Black Blade

(08/15/2001; 15:13:53 MDT - Msg ID: 59661)

More Job Cuts After Firstar Merger

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/010815/job_cuts.html
Snippit:

Merger Between U.S. Bancorp and Firstar Results in More Job Cuts Than Expected

MINNEAPOLIS (AP) -- The merger between U.S. Bancorp and Firstar will result in more job cuts than previously expected.

Black Blade: This is just getting too gruesome. Too many people are getting hurt and the economy is in no condition to absorb these people back into the workforce. After all, how many burger-flippers and Walmart Greeters do we need anyway? These people too will be laid on the "Bone Pile." This is just a symptom of what lies ahead. Go for the Gold while you can.

Black Blade

(08/15/2001; 15:21:08 MDT - Msg ID: 59662)

Asarco complex laying off miners

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/azstar/20010815/lo/asarco_complex_laying_off_miners_1.html
Snippit:

About 110 workers at the Asarco Mission Complex near Green Valley will lose their jobs as weak copper prices take another bite out of Arizona's once mighty mining industry. Asarco managers began notifying affected workers shortly after noon Tuesday at the huge open-pit operation, which employed 625 people before the layoffs. Most of the laid-off workers will be off the job within a few days, but a few will work through September.

Black Blade: Power costs are also a concern in this energy intensive business. More to be laid on the "Bone Pile." Too bad, I did a project for this mine a few years ago. A lot of good hard working people. This economy is going down and I'm afraid that this minor wave of layoffs will soon grow into a tsunami. Some PMs as portfolio insurance would be a very good move.

fastinfo

(08/15/2001; 15:22:06 MDT - Msg ID: 59663)

Thank god I did not invest in Semafo (SMF-Toronto) what a disater!!!!!

CoBra(too)

(08/15/2001; 15:31:01 MDT - Msg ID: 59664)

@ BB and TP - my Suffy - not Scruffy- my Beagle ...

is the only one looking forward to your pink slip bone piles ... and even she's mesmerized by the size building up so quick that she is forlorn as to pick the right sized bone, marrow and all from this un-expected booty of AG's looty - though thanks for the bounty - I'm looking for a new county to bury all my skeletons, though I'm a'counting to find some recently cleaned out cupboards down in D.C.- Rerla dog's county - Suffy too ...

Cavan Man

(08/15/2001; 15:32:22 MDT - Msg ID: 59665)

RE: USAGOLD

For "fence sitters worldwide"Unpaid Advertisement:

I'd like to say I've known Mike Kosares and his staff for almost three years. IMNSOHO, this firm adds more value to the process of PM acquisition than any other I have dealt with. I know this firm from firsthand experience having had the pleasure of meeting our host several times over the past two years. These gentlemen and their staff are impeccably honest and they deliver what they promise, when they promise it. USAGOLD is a class act; honest, reliable and user friendly. In these parlous times (not sure if "end times" GC aka Marke Talk), I'd own metal and furthermore, I'd call USAGOLD today. Respectfully.......CM

BR549

(08/15/2001; 15:33:43 MDT - Msg ID: 59666)

POG valued as PPP instead of FRN (part2)--

site steward (msg#: 59650)

Great question�But "not a basket of currency". A basket of goods and services. There is a huge difference. I agree that since PPP's establish relative buying power for each countries currencies, then how will imbalances be resolved in order to buy the same relative basket of goods and services in all countries. And I'm not sure that I know the answer other than if imbalances are currently being resolved with currencies, why not with a new measured value of gold stated in weight which never changes rather than in FRN's.

Indulge me in inventing a few new terms in an attempt to explain-

It can be argued that when the value of the dollar declines and the relative value of gold goes up, that this hedging is what investing in gold is all about. Of course, but isn't the knowledge of what your gold is really worth in terms of something real other than fluctuating FRN's, Euro's, etc. of more value? What I am proposing in agreement with some of my other favorite posters, is to quit thinking in terms of FRN's in relation to GOLD.

The advantage of pricing gold in Purchasing power parities (PPP's) equivalents rather than in FRN's is that the underlying value set for commodity prices and services is driven by supply and demand. Not to say that HBM's dreaded manipulation of prices does not take place but relative values are more free market determined than with the closed door corruptness innate to the Fed and other CB�ers in the world.

How can the POG be priced in PPP terms? I need some help here. Here is a first attempt but a word about currencies first.

There are only two ways to classify currencies:
value-based (VB) or non-value-based (NVB) fiat.

The rest of the world, recently lead by the Russians, are moving away from NVB paper to VB gold. The positive result of this economic strategy is to "bust" the FRN and move the Russian people away from the hoarding of greenbacks in exchange for VB gold coins. If I was a Russian, I would trade my FRN's for real gold coins. Wouldn't you? (In fact I do every chance that I get.) Of course extreme hoarding of currencies (both VB and/or NVB) is an economy killer. During times of fear, the people will stash VB and NVB currency under their mattresses and economic flows will slow down, then stop. (Like what's happening now in Argentina).

Now back to PPP's VB's for gold. If we are not going to abolish NVB (fiat), then how much is our gold "really" worth? My contention is as with all NVB currencies, it is worth what it will buy in terms of a basket of goods and services. So, if we begin today by establishing a representative basket (this is the tough part) and peg a value of gold to this basket, then a base line is established. This base line is then converted into some yet to be determined measured value such as grams of gold, oz's, an equivalent, etc and that is the real value of gold today in terms of purchasing power here and around the world. Let's call this equivalency "Real Gold Value" or RGV's for short. (It's a better name than SDR's and even FRN's I might add).

Commodity markets (and services values) and other free market price mechanisms via supply and demand will then establish new RGV values relative to a constant or base line for their individual currencies. RGV's are now the world standard and NVB currencies will now float in relative value against these VB's.

The advantages here are immense�You will know how much your physical gold is "really" worth in relative to world purchasing power. This new index will eventually remove HBM's manipulation as a tool for TPTB.

I agree there are indeed many unresolved questions in my mind. Since PPP's establish relative buying power for each countries NVB currencies, then can't these RGV's be pegged to buy on a world average the same relative basket of goods and services in all countries stated in a base rate similar to the "constant" or "real" dollars indexes which compare relative buying power value of FRN's over different time periods? Aren't these PPP type clearing mechanisms needed because of the fluctuations of local currencies against the manipulated NCV of the dollar?

Again, I am not suggestion redefining what is going on now but rather finding a way to think in terms of gold as value, rather than paper.

You're a pickin' and I'm a grinnin'

Regards from Cornfield County

Black Blade

(08/15/2001; 15:51:20 MDT - Msg ID: 59667)

Oil Jumps as U.S. Inventories Fall

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010815/bs/markets_oil_dc_15.html
Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed on Wednesday on new figures showing a third consecutive week of inventory declines in the United States, the world's largest energy consumer. The Department of Energy figures also showed a 1.5 percent draw in gasoline inventories to 204.6 million barrels, a sixth consecutive week of drops. The drop means gasoline inventories are now only just above last year's meager levels, and it comes on top of higher-than-expected fuel demand figures in the United States.

Two refinery problems in the United States also lent support to the market, as they could hit supply of refined oil such as gasoline and heating oil. Oil markets are preparing for lower supply next month when the OPEC cartel has agreed to cut output by four percent, or one million barrels per day, to keep prices up.

Black Blade: "Cheap Energy" is needed to resuscitate the economy. Energy is not going to be "Cheap" again. It is also near that time of year when refineries are shut down for routine maintenance ahead of the "switch-over" to reformulated "boutique" fuels for EPA clean air requirements. Look for a resumption of energy-inflation soon.

Black Blade

(08/15/2001; 15:56:11 MDT - Msg ID: 59668)

RE: CB2

From what I hear from "people" I know, it looks like the Cortez-Pipeline Project should do well even at these prices. I see that they are just about the only ones in the state of Nevada doing any serious exploration. That has to be good for Coral's prospects - Robinson Ranch area maybe? Even so, eventually a good size hole for your beagle to bury his/her "Bones." Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(08/15/2001; 16:11:01 MDT - Msg ID: 59669)

Refinery fire threatens area gas supply

http://chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-0108150292aug15.story?coll=chi%2Dnewslocal%2Dhed
Snippit:

Gasoline prices are on the rise again, reversing a summer long slide and defying the season's typical pattern. And prices may go higher still as a result of an explosion and fire at Citgo Petroleum Corp.'s refinery in Romeoville early Tuesday morning. It was a burst pipeline that served as a catalyst for the record gasoline-price run-up early last summer, and experts have warned that any significant disruption to the supply chain could send prices back up quickly. The Citgo refinery is one of the few that makes Chicago's particular ethanol-laced gasoline blend, and its closure for any length of time will crimp the available supply of gas.

The impact of the refinery fire is compounded by the fact that many area refineries are going to be shutting down for maintenance in September and October. The Citgo refinery has a capacity of 155,000 barrels per day. Overall, it represents roughly 3.8 percent of the Midwest region's refining capacity of 4 million barrels per day. "This is not a minor damage situation," said David Sykuta, executive director of the Illinois Petroleum Council. "This is a major disruption to the gasoline supply."

Black Blade: Refinery utilization is at near full capacity. We are back to pushing the limit on Refinery capacity again. It's D�j� vu all over again.

CoBra(too)

(08/15/2001; 16:14:48 MDT - Msg ID: 59670)

Hello BB - Close enough -

... Let's just settle on Crescent Valley - next to Beowawe - and thanks for your kind reply, also had some great events in Winnemucca - "Even the QEII. sailed the Humboldt" or years back ... meeting another car in the area you've got a severe traffic jam!
... and BTW I'm a big fan of your's and Suffy is too - also thanks to your bone supply ... cheers to u also! cb2

Shermag

(08/15/2001; 16:33:27 MDT - Msg ID: 59671)

Natural Gas prices rise with small inventory build

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Energy%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_energy&refer=topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_energy∣dle=ad_frame2_energy&s=AO3rbrhXvTmF0dXJhI am surprised I beat Black Blade with this:

New York, Aug. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Natural gas had its biggest gain in eight months after a report showed U.S. inventories rose less than expected last week, as a heat wave spurred cooling demand in the East and a tropical storm curbed output.

Supplies in underground storage rose 3 billion cubic feet to 2.29 trillion, the smallest increase this year, the report from the American Gas Association showed. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a gain of about 64 billion cubic feet.

``No one predicted a number anywhere near this,'' said David Chang, managing director of natural gas trading at Bank of America NA in New York.

Shermag: To those of us that follow this forum, this should come as no surprise. Thanks Black Blade, for all you do here.

CoBra(too)

(08/15/2001; 16:38:57 MDT - Msg ID: 59672)

Forgot to say - Suffy is looking forward

to an open pit'able deep storage bone deposit and would even invite Scruffy for a bite, though Cortez is just working away at the final depositary - too early for the Suffy's bone dormatory ... (sorry for plagiaratizing Scruffy, at another site), otherwise we (us) dogs smell the stink of fiat burning long before the fat Beaure-au-cats even start to notice their singed tails are leavin' stinkin' trails - to no avail as we all know - even AG is pouring on more Kerosene - to cover or douse his trail - before he performs his high-tail class act ... as even though his reputation won't be intact ... ever say's Suffy too - cb2, may be back too.

BR549

(08/15/2001; 16:50:16 MDT - Msg ID: 59673)

HBM's Manipulation

Hill Billy Mitchell (msg#: 59551)

I'm a pickin� & I hope you're a grinnin�

I tend to comment on other's posts/research rather than use my posts to link to research for a couple of reasons�I do not enjoy the process of research and there are many here and at other sights including yourself, BB, Netking, auspec, Raha, ski, CoBra(too), uponroof, escapethematrix, Tree in the Forest, Sierra Madre, Tommy P , and too many more to mention are doggone good at it and a heck of a lot better than me. I worked my way though school doing research and then taking that research and writing a synopsis for a professor. He sometimes almost verbatim published my thoughts in "The Journal of Marketing" under his name with no credit to me. I hope never to do that so if I do, believe me it is not intentional. So more power to you researchers for a job well done.

I don't like the connotation of argumentative but as part of my pickin� and grinnin� philosophy, I will pick at your earlier highly regarded post a little bit and then hope we can all do some grinnin�.

I agree with your previous post's intent of drawing a line in the sand in reference to the evils of manipulation. How AG&C manipulates is indeed at a higher level and is evil. However, I respectfully disagree with you in reference to your opposition to ski's contention that "virtually ALL SALESMANSHIP and ADVERTISING are inherently manipulation". I have had dozens of professional sales training courses in the computer industry and can assure you, that statement could not be farther from my experience. I contend that our economy and modern capitalism runs on manipulation.

What we are talking about is the connotation of the word manipulation. Let's focus on Webster's "To control or play upon by artful means." And then tell me that the clever advertising spots you see on TV and magazines is not manipulation. Look at "Joe Camel" and beer advertisements directed to teens, college students, high schoolers in order to get them hooked and develop the manipulators emerging market. When I was in high school on some mornings, a Marlboro truck was parked out in front of our school giving away little sample mini-boxes of Marlboro's to the students. Guess they were meant be taken to their parents but somehow most of them never made it including a few of mine. After too many cigarettes, I quit smoking on September 13, 1963 and would contend that although I was responsible for that decision, I was manipulated into doing one of the stupidest acts that I ever did. My candidate for "Mother of the Century" and me in turn manipulated, coerced, begged, snooped, invaded privacy, and did whatever else within a parent's capabilities and control to keep our kids off of drugs and away from tobacco. I thank God every chance that I get that I have child who is a computer sales rep (yes, a manipulator) and one in the first year of Med School. Neither do drugs or smoke, but like their parents, did not escape the manipulations of the Miller Brewing Company. We were fortunate, but some like Carroll O�Connor and other's were not able to fend off their offspring coming under the influence of some of the unscrupulous manipulating drug salesmen. People that do smoke or do drugs (same thing)-that's fine just don't ask me to pay for your lung transplants with my tax dollars.

GE Jack's PR Machine is an all day attempt everyday to "artfully control and play"-Mr. Webster- upon the Sheeple to get them to liquidate their commenting analyst's firms "dog stock" positions to their detriment. This manipulation is then exchanged for FRN's in the "art" of advertising.

I used to have a friend of mind who was a great believer in situational ethics. His ideas were-- that it depends on the circumstances whether something is ethical or not. His example was the dying men in the lifeboat killing and eating a prisoner to survive, etc. was justified because of the situation. My contention, which I think is the same as yours, is what's right is "RIGHT" and vice versa. The situation is irrelevant.

Too say that salesmanship and advertising is not manipulation and this isn't what drives this economy, in my respectful opinion, is ludicrous. Is there a line in the sand between legality and what the definition of what "is" "is"? Isn't this what we're really talking about. Isn't this why our nation has more lawyers per capita than any other nation in the world. If it's legal--then isn't it all right? "NO!" and THIS is where we agree, if it is not moral and ethical, then it is NOT OK regardless of the law. Sometimes if it is legal (such as stealing our gold ownership from our treasury may be legal) but it is indeed an "HBM manipulation" and is wrong.

So there is no gray area in my mind, it is all black and white: advertising, sales, Wal-Mart's price rollbacks, CBNC, the government concealing there is a nuclear bomb lying in the water off of the coast of GA-----they are all manipulations

So in honor and respect for your ideas, in the future all of my posts in reference to "evil and insidious manipulation by the Fed and the other PTB" will be stated as "HBM's manipulation of�.".

Very Respectfully,

So Sir HBM, Regards from Cornfield County

Netking

(08/15/2001; 16:55:19 MDT - Msg ID: 59674)

Iraqis call for 'liberating Palestine' under Saddam

http://www.jpost.com/Editions/2001/08/15/LatestNews/LatestNews.32693.htmlSnippit:
". . . Thousands of Iraqis took to the streets today, waving guns and calling for the "liberation of Palestine" under the leadership of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

. . . more than 7 million men and women � roughly one-third of Iraq's 22 million population � are said to have volunteered for the forces . . . "

R Powell

(08/15/2001; 16:57:06 MDT - Msg ID: 59675)

From sector's 59645

comes this quote which, I believe, should be emphasized again,
"Currency crises experts such as Maury Obstfeld, UCLA describe a sudden (read instantaneous) collapse in government currency support measures as the norm."
How can A.G. and his FOMC partners lower rates again to support the Dow and Duck when doing so will weaken an already sinking dollar?? Add some real inflation numbers to further lower the real return on dollar denominated assets and we might see the retreat of foreign owned investment out of our markets. Uninvested dollars become Bigfloat unchained, on the loose and dangerously threatening to return home as a flood of paper looking to exchange itself for something tangible.
I think sector is correct in warning that currencies that are traded electronically all day and night can collapse in a heartbeat.
Now to clean up this place. Seems someone has been throwing bones everywhere. It's a mess!
Netking, thanks for the Butler fix.
Rich

CoBra(too)

(08/15/2001; 17:26:56 MDT - Msg ID: 59676)

@ BR549

Sir, It's great to see you phil-ling in some real Phil-osophy, though it's getting a bit late for me to respond in kind ... not that I could, anyway, even if your tongue would've been my first lingo, I would feel extremely in-adequate to cross intellectual swords in any way with you, my friend, as your thoughts are penetrating to a level, I've been trying to suppress - though still seeing the evil - and to my distress NOT - it is great minds like you, which will rescue liberal thought.
Thank you - cb2 ... and please remember me - to annie ...

wow ... is this ONE sentence or what - war ned you -

slingshot

(08/15/2001; 17:30:42 MDT - Msg ID: 59677)

BR549 PPP

What equation should we use for the price of gold to goods and services. That is a tough one. Have to start somewhere so here is an idea.
The 1 0z gold eagle has a fifty dollar value as currency.
We all know this is a rip off. Anyhow I figured we have to go back when 1 oz of gold was a solid 1 oz purchase power.
Enter the Gold Rush of 1849. What would the pioneer of 1849 get with 1 oz of gold. I am gong to use Fifty dollars an oz as a base. Lets see.
Mule $10.00
Mule pack frame $5.00
Shovel $2.00
Pick $2.00
Axe $2.00
Pants 2 pair $5.00
Shirts 2 pair $3.50
Gold pan $1.00
Hardtack 5 lbs. $1.50
Jerky 5 lbs $2.00
Blanket 2 $2.00
Knife $3.00
Firearm with bullets $11.00

The prices will be off somewhat yet fit the requirements of goods and services for most of them were made by hand.
Now lets move to 2001 and allow 10X the price of 1849 gold for inflation and trying to stay apples to apples under $500.00
Firearm 12ga single $79.00
Knife $20.00
Blankets 2 $10.00
Jerky Teriyaki $75.00 $15.00/lb
Hardtack $15.00 $3.00/box
Pan $10.00 Guess?
Shirts 2 $ 50.00
Pants $ 60.00
Axe $ 12.00
Pick $ 7.00
Shovel $ 5.00
Pack frame and pack $ 70.00 Military
Bike used $ 80.00
Shotgun shells 2 boxes $ 7.00

The two lists are apples to apples with the 49er getting the best for fifty and myself for Five Hundred. Maybe thats where the price of Gold should be now? Are we looking for an honest barter system.
What do you think?
Slingshot

BR549

(08/15/2001; 17:45:24 MDT - Msg ID: 59678)

Grinnin� back

Let me pick myself up off of the floor and hope my sides will quit hurting soon.

@ slingshot-

I love your basket of goods and services. Let's see, we're at CRB 17 now so I think your list should probably be labeled CRB 1. Which is great for gold mining activities.

@ CoBra(too)-

So, I have been outed, huh?

If there is a nomination for the Grinnin� hall of fame, then it will be tough to choose between you two.

Let me get my breath.

Solomon Weaver

(08/15/2001; 17:51:45 MDT - Msg ID: 59679)

The basket

Hey slingshot

I really think it is great that you are thinking this through....

The only part that makes the whole thing strange to me is if I look at your basket I realize that the goods that people needed back then look today like the things I want to take out camping for the weekend.

The purchasing power of gold needs to somehow be correlated along with all the things we can buy today that weren't around back then.

One example...

Knee surgery

Back Then - not available

Somewhere in the 70s....$20,000 and you sit at home for 8-12 weeks or more before you are off crutches.

Somewhere in the 90s.....$8000 in outpatient orthoscopic clinic and you are back at work the following week.

----

It was recently announced that the first all mechanical (titanium) heart was used in a transplant....

----

I really love all of you guys on this forum, and I agree that America has lost in many ways the moral strength that we had...the brave generation. But, any view of reality that does not encompass the phenomenal impact of advances in science and engineering in the last 50-100 years is not an objective measurement of reality.

I too am guilty of glorifying the days when we did it with our own hands (from firewood to changing a spark plug), but the coming times are going to be done with our minds....our world becomes ever more shaped by our mental energy...what we plan and invent and engineer.

Value cannot be measured in baskets.....Gold is perhaps better something which when allowed to temper our fiat systems, will unleash even higher levels of creativity, as it creates a system that can really work for entreprenuers and investors and talented inventors and businessmen.

Poor old Solomon

Netking

(08/15/2001; 18:13:21 MDT - Msg ID: 59680)

Bullion Bank's are "trying hard to maintain a lid on gold's movement up"

"Bullion banks are "trying hard to maintain a lid on gold's movement up," said John Mesrobian, president of Constantinople Advisors. However, "they shall fail in the end for they are significantly exposed to their derivative positions, dollar positions, and short gold positions and will be forced to cover as gold powers through and moves up." (sourced from Dave Morgans silver-investor.com)

slingshot

(08/15/2001; 18:35:22 MDT - Msg ID: 59681)

Solomon Weaver Msg# 59679

I will agree with you somewhat. I believe gold should be valued against hard durable assets. Land for instance1/10th acre for 1 oz. Water in the future may be an measure of gold. I will agree with your medical point if you adjust for hyperinflation. Maybe one of the comparisons should be that it lasts for X amount of years. Not like a computer or car.
Should it be dependable in some sort of way? Then shall it benifit man and be available to all for one ounce of Gold.
Untill we find that item that fits That criteria we will be subject to the judgement of the fiat system.
Slingshot

site steward

(08/15/2001; 18:47:31 MDT - Msg ID: 59682)

BR549 -- On baskets of "things"....

Sorry for the confusion I introduced. Having read your reply, I had to reread my comments and saw that my fingers did not correctly transfer the thoughts that were in my head, thus undermining my effort. If you stick around a bit, you may discover I'm not always as dumb as that post of mine surely made me look, because it definately made no sense as written -- I typed "currencies" where I meant to type "goods". The following excerpt is the corrected version (capitalized), and the rest of the post stands as is.

"At the present time, similar to the international currencies implied in your example, a fixed quantity of gold will buy a basket of GOODS that varies in size from country to country. It, too, can be adjusted by the PPP from nation to nation to reflect its differing local purchasing power...(etc.)"

Thanks for calling attention to my blunder. The post (msg#: 59650) should now make sense with the above revision to deliver the thoughts as was originally intended.

R.

Solomon Weaver

(08/15/2001; 19:13:50 MDT - Msg ID: 59683)

(No Subject)

slingshot

Land.....in today and beyond, we find dramatic differences in land and home prices......depending a lot on how good the "jobs" are in the region...and jobs are definately an intangible.

I see the value of using the changes in prices in tangibles to look at gold....but in a society where ever more of our consumptions are in the non-tangible realm (like a movie video....the same plastic box can hold dramatically different content...ideas...).

By the way, in my knee surgery example, hyper inflation only feeds my arguement.

Granted, Dr.s make mistakes, but by and large, the level of diagnosis and treatment available to the common American today is vastly superior to 50 years ago......and the "only" difference is "knowledge"....we have learned how to "apply" our minds to medicine.

What is the value of a new diagnostic that eliminates $5 billion worth of unneeded treatment?

I am a gold heart....but in this vein I am a devils advocate....gold is our liberation into a time when we will create immense new things.

Poor old Solomon

Tree in the Forest

(08/15/2001; 19:17:14 MDT - Msg ID: 59684)

megatron

Be careful with Yamana. I looked at them rather closely. They looked like a very good leveraged play, until I had an opportunity to speak to the President. Barrick sits on their board of directors and owns 4 million shares. I asked him whether he felt comfortable with this shark on his tail. He seemed very satisfied that Barrick was a "friend" of the company. With friends like that, who needs enemies. Barrick has a large silver short position last I heard. When silver is ready to blow, they'll swallow Yamana whole just like HM. Watch yourself out there!

R Powell

(08/15/2001; 19:25:32 MDT - Msg ID: 59685)

Gold Standard

http://www.cbsmarketwatch.com
Once there, scroll down to Commentary and click on "Is it time for a return to the gold standard?" by Tom Calandra.
Also for Canuck, same place, home page in the upper left hand corner you can type in Nem (or any stock symbol), and click to follow afterhours trading.
Rich

Max Rabbitz

(08/15/2001; 19:39:59 MDT - Msg ID: 59686)

James Turk and those SDR's

James Turk has done an outstanding job in penetrating our mysterious banking cabal. It's had me thinking this last week, always a dangerous thing.

Sir Turk says "The Second Amendment to the Articles of Agreement of the IMF, which came into effect in April 1978, eliminated the use of gold as the common denominator of the par value system and as the basis of the value of the SDR." If so can we really say 35 SDRs is equal to one ounce gold? Also, remember that there are no corresponding liabilities kept on the IMF books.

In any case, as of December 2000 the Federal Reserve had 2,200 million SDR certificates left from the 10,539 SDR's owned by the ESF, or slightly more than 20% of the possible SDR certificates were still held by the Fed. To convert the 10,539 SDR's to tonnes of gold (35:1) gives me about 9,410 tonnes. But isn't this more gold than the U.S. claims to have, about 8000 tonnes? Or am I using funny math?

I suspect Turk has got a hold of the beast but there are a few twists and turns left to discover.

BR549

(08/15/2001; 19:42:51 MDT - Msg ID: 59687)

Gold being valued in hard durable assets vs. PPP's

slingshot (msg#: 59681)

How much is your land worth? Is it worth $200,000 dollars? 165,000 Euro's? Or say a pound of gold? Everyone's current thinking is in terms of U$ fiat currency. Why isn't it worth a pound of gold? Because you do not know how a pound of gold is valued except in thinking about it in terms of an HBM manipulated fiat.

Your land is worth what it will buy in terms of your inflated gold prospector's basket of goods and services yesterday relative to what it will buy today. So, if you step outside of your current dollar oriented valuation of wealth, what is your land worth in gold?

The perplexing thing about currencies is that there are no constants. Supply and demand for commodities how you should determine the relevant value of your land. If your land is worth $200K today, which is the equivalent of a pound of gold, then depending upon the fluctuations of supply and demand for a basket of goods and services, it may be worth 1 pound 3 oz's next year. What is gold worth? What 1 pound 3 ounces will buy relative to its computed index which are based upon a basket of goods and services, similar to what the PPP index provides.

If you meant your last post as a topic for serious discussion, then my apologies for making light of it. I really got a kick out of your basket of goods and services. The main problem is how do you establish what this initial basket of today's goods and services are? My contention is the PPP has already established this basket for the exchange of currencies, so why not use this established index for gold? I'll give you 6 pounds for your land site unseen.

site steward (msg#: 59682)

No problem. I have read many of your earlier posts and believe me I don't think they are "dumb". Correction noted and if you read my posts, my fingers or my hateful computers, do the same thing. My response to your original post, aside from the first paragraph, taking into account substituting the terms basket of currency for basket of goods and services is duly noted.

Aside from the above, which will not cloud the issue of my answer to your post, what do you think about establishing a base for the POG using PPP's basket to begin with?

Solomon Weaver (msg#: 59679)

The problem with any index that tries to measure current value in reference to the past, is changing technology. Look at computers bang for the buck or medicine. But why a buck? Slingshot's mule may be replaced by a tractor or 4 wheel drive, but everything is still stated in relative value to current supply and demand of a basket of goods (or commodities) and services. If you needed a brain tumor removed, and had the assets or insurance, I am sure you would not call all of the brain surgeons in town and find the cheapest doc. Likewise technology will reduce prices but not reduce the price in relative terms of what you would pay for the "best". So would you pay $100,000/FRN's OR x amount of the weight of gold. You don't care if you get the service that you need, but brain surgeon's prices around the world relative to the weight of gold as an index of relative values of a basket of gold's and services might let you compare prices around the world in terms other than the U$ dollar, or Euro's, or any other fiat if you were shopping for the cheapest skull cutter.

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/15/2001; 19:54:52 MDT - Msg ID: 59688)

Cavan Man @ # 59665

For "fence sitters worldwide"Sir Cavan Man

Have you seen the movie, "One Against the Wind", with Judy Davis and Sam Neill?

There was a great line by Judy Davis, when the American consulate said, "but we are neutral". Her comeback was, "There is a special hell for fence sitters, Smallwood."

Just thought you might enjoy that.

Very respectfully,

HBM

auspec

(08/15/2001; 19:55:14 MDT - Msg ID: 59689)

Netking #59606

Murray, I enjoyed reading your silver prognostications much more than writing my own! Looking back on the last years gold chart pretty much shows a controlled flatline, tight range. Silver has been totally under control also. Credit to the manipulators for the last 12 mos. Now let's see what what you can do over the NEXT 12 mos!
WHEN silver hits the wall it will be a story to tell to your heirs. They won't tire of hearing it.
Best,
auspec

Canuck

(08/15/2001; 20:09:13 MDT - Msg ID: 59690)

@ R. Powell

Thanks Rich

Netking

(08/15/2001; 20:21:49 MDT - Msg ID: 59691)

"Euro rises because US economy weakens" - EU Observer

http://www.euobserver.com/index.phtml?selected_topic=9∾tion=view&article_id=3146Snippit:
". . . The euro has hit a three-month high against the dollar, breaking the psychological 90 cents barrier, and also reaching a five-month high against the pound.

The euro's rise is rather seen as a growing fear of an economic recession in the United States than confidence in the European currency. Last week, the US Federal Reserve released the overview of the United States economy, the pessimistic Beige Book, which described economic growth as stagnating . . ."
------------------------------------------------------------
McAgSpec - Thanks Sir, more power to "the clan".

darkhorse

(08/15/2001; 20:24:56 MDT - Msg ID: 59692)

Netking (08/14/01; 23:12:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 59606)

I've been catching up on my reading, and after reading Netking's post yesterday (from MIA) re: gold/silver ratios, it occured to me that we're at a 64:1 ratio...more than 4x historical norms. Even if todays price of gold was normal (in the immortal words of Mork: ArAr!), silver would stand at about $17.50! I wonder how long we can stay this weird! :)

slingshot

(08/15/2001; 20:31:41 MDT - Msg ID: 59693)

BR549 Msg#59687

Glad you enjoyed my 49er equation or CRB1. As a thought as to why it is hard to value Gold to anything but fiat is because it has always been thus. Compound that in the electronic transactions of a cashless society and gold has its work cut out to reach the consious mind. Gold for the most part is jewelry to the average person, until a problem occurs in their financial world. They accumulate not invest.
Slingshot

slingshot

(08/15/2001; 20:50:45 MDT - Msg ID: 59694)

BR549

Is that six pounds Gold?
Six pounds British?
Six pounds Corn Beef?

Slingshot

USAGOLD

(08/15/2001; 20:57:01 MDT - Msg ID: 59695)

All. . .Conversation with Sir James Turk. . . .

In talking with Mr. Turk yesterday to clarify some SDR matters, he mentioned that he stands by his prediction of gold at $380 by the end of the year. I do not think he would mind my passing that along . . . .along with my recommendation to subscribe to his newsletter "Freemarket Gold and Money, " a very good newsletter for goldmeisters no matter where you live.

If what Mr. Turk hopes for occurs, I might add, the anti-gold cartel will have been broken, the euro will be on the ascendancy, and American investors will be headed for a possible repeat of the 1970s when the dollar declined against major currencies by 70% and gold rose by nearly 25 times.

October 9 looms large, and though I don't put my eggs in that basket (nor should you), I do respectfully advise the Boston judge:

"Let the case be heard!"

To do so would be in the best interest of our legal system which purports to defend the weak against the powerful; the lawful against the unlawful; the plundered against the barbarian.

A quintessentially Jeffersonian thought for this fifteenth day of August when we in in the high country cross over from the far side of the summer doldrums. The nights get cooler with the hint of Fall -- golden autumn and the investment new year. Promise fills the air . . . . . .the mind quickens; the soul settles; my favorite time of year.

My best wishes and thanks to all who post here for making this one of the finest discussion forums on the internet.

I would like to make a special appeal to our lurkers to gain courage. . . .join in. I think you will find new friends here and an experience that might become an important and rewarding part of your daily routine. . . .Who knows, you might even have a positive effect on someone.

Black Blade

(08/15/2001; 21:33:48 MDT - Msg ID: 59696)

Asian Markets Falling Again!

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
A couple of days ago the Nikkei rose fast and furious on news of more liberalizing on behalf of the BOJ. After tonight that gain could be wiped out as Asian Markets continue to collapse. The word is that the BOJ is back in the market to prop up the Nikkei. If so, it does not appear to be working. There are rumors that a couple of major Japanese banks are teetering on the edge of bankruptcy. The recent liberal stance by the BOJ on monetary policy could be part of a plan to salvage these banks and also to save the "insolvent" Japanese postal fund. I still look for more info for serious confirmation though. These are certainly "Interesting Times."

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(08/15/2001; 21:50:53 MDT - Msg ID: 59697)

Poll: Economy in Bad Shape

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/htx/abc/20010815/ts/abcmoneypoll010815_1.html
Fifty-one percent of Americans give the economy poor ratings, the first time in four years that a majority of the country felt that way.

Snippit:

Fifty-one percent now call the economy "not so good" or "poor," the first time since May 1997 that a majority of Americans felt that way. Americans' rating of the economy has been in a steep decline - positive ratings of the economy have declined by 22 points this year and by 31 points since January 2000. Optimism about the future is also in short supply: Forty-six percent say the economy is getting worse, about the average all this year. Just 16 percent think it's improving. (On the other hand, in 1990 a record 77 percent said the economy was worsening.)

Black Blade: There goes consumer confidence.

Black Blade

(08/15/2001; 21:57:01 MDT - Msg ID: 59698)

Yen Halts Gains vs Dollar on Speculation Japan to Sell Currency

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AO3sWPhatWWVuIEhh
Snippit:

Tokyo, Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The yen halted yesterday's 1.8 percent gain to a two-month high against the dollar on speculation Japan may sell the currency to prevent its further ascent from hampering the economy by hurting Japanese exporters profit. ``Speculation for intervention is getting quite strong, dissuading some market participants from pushing up the yen further,'' said Shohgo Nagaya, foreign exchange manager at Nomura Trust and Banking Co. Haruhiko Kuroda, Japan's vice finance minister for international affairs, said the yen's rise is inappropriate and Japan will take appropriate steps if necessary.

Black Blade: As the SNL Church Lady used to say - "Isn't that special!"

justamereBear

(08/15/2001; 22:12:55 MDT - Msg ID: 59699)

Solomon Weaver Slingshot Netking

Netking
Thanks for the link. I had not seen that one. A bit detailed for my purposes, but useful. I have bookmarked it. Kind of fun to watch those lights blinking red and green.....Its beginning to look a lot like Christmas ....lights (all over town) blinking red and green. :>))

Solomon Weaver Slingshot, et al
Solomon- I like your knee surgery example, and I don't. The problem I have been struggling with is more assuring myself, and mine, of a continuing supply of those goods and services that are now available. I had little interest in making up a basket to determine what value my gold might go to. Fun, but there are more serious problems, IMHO. In your knee surgery example, (and I agree that technology changes the equation, but how?) you have a last/current price of $8,000 and one week off work. True enough. But how many of these operations , or even equipment to do so, are available in third world countries?

Therein lies the rub. I seriously expect North America (and the rest of the world) to be busted back to third world status at least. If no one has the $8,000 seed money to have such an operation, how long are the skills to operate the equipment going to last? and the equipment itself? So, how much of this technology is going to survive to effect the equation? Some, undoubtedly, but surely not all. History abounds with examples of inventions being re invented a century ot two later.

I like slingshots mule, especially if Black Blades energy prognostications run to their logical conclusion. The turn of the century energy sources are going to be about all we have. But then what happens to the prices of mules, when everybody wants one, and there aren't enough to go around? Add a few other variables such as AIDS, the declining ability of the earth to support the population, (even using hi tech methods, never mind having some of them disappear because the oil ran out)the physical arrangement of the population, (back then, everybody had a backyard garden to grow a few veggies. How many hi rise condos today have even a balcony?) etc. Lots of variables, most of them interelated, and with a fairly high risk of a very negative downside. [Maybe we should be buying mules instead of gold :>)) ]

Will mules be priced at such and such a price, relative to todays Big Mac? I doubt it. But maybe so. It may be that protien in general is so scarce that it will cost a fortune for a hamburger.(using whatever passes for a medium of exchange then)

Personally, I have been going after sources of supply (mostly home grown) with large dollups of liquidity in what I think will likely BE liquidity, precious metals, thrown in to allow me maximum flexablity.

However, as one poster, (Canuck, was that you?) posted some time back
I buy gold (as a safe haven)
I buy siver in case I am wrong about the gold.
I buy groceries in case I am wrong about the first two.

j'Bear

megatron

(08/15/2001; 22:39:10 MDT - Msg ID: 59700)

Tree in tha forest

Thanks for the warning. I looked at Yamana about three years ago and went with other silver land holders such as Minefinders and CornerBay. They don't run any mines. Yamana was/is strectched way too far for a junior. They are in the same boat as Eldorado, being systematically crushed to get at thier assets. A few will survive to unreal returns, Most won't. Some one will get them for a cent on the dollar.

megatron

(08/15/2001; 23:15:35 MDT - Msg ID: 59701)

Is Wanniski drunk?

Where does he get this 'fantasy' $350 gold price, that would solve the worlds money ills? The more I read of his, the clearer it is he 'taught' himself 'cypherin'. Can he do simple arithmatic?

site steward

(08/15/2001; 23:32:34 MDT - Msg ID: 59702)

BR549, you asked my opinion:

---"...what do you think about establishing a base for the POG using PPP's basket to begin with?"----

As noted previously, in the role of "site steward" I'm on thin ice to give opinions, so let me skate around the issue with this watered-down statement:

Looking ahead to a more level playing field (i.e., as dollar hegemony is cast down), we (in the U.S.) can gain some initial insight into the future valuation of gold here by looking at its strength on a PPP basis elsewhere in the world today. Quite impressive.

Beyond that, I would never think seriously about throwing a rope around "the market".

R.

Netking

(08/16/2001; 03:15:15 MDT - Msg ID: 59703)

Looking for somewhere to turn . . .

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010816/t95552.htmlSnippit:

" . . . "The yen's rise has me nervous and the unrelenting fall in the tech sector is absolutely killing me", said Masaru Kazama, head of equities at Nissan Securities. Looking for somewhere to turn, short-term dealers are throwing money into real-estate and construction firms that could benefit from an urban revitalisation scheme. . . "

Meanwhile the Nikkei 225 has another downer as it heads towards 10,000 & Europe opens in a sea of red . . .
http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?uView Yesterday's Discussion.

Canuck

(08/16/2001; 05:02:11 MDT - Msg ID: 59704)

@justamerebear

I struggle to remember the line but I think it was:

I buy gold (as a safe haven)
I buy silver in case I am wrong about the gold.
I buy guns in case I am wrong about the first two.

Hey, the situation is getting so bizarre (check Japan and China, up and down violently) that when TSHTF (and NIBW) if things are whacked beyond gold and silver, neighbours will be taking shots across the street at each other.

The scheme of things, IHMO, has the potential to be anywhere from dismal to frightening. I've been digging deeper and deeper into Mr. Blade's energy synopsis and there is not the slightest doubt in my little mind that the energy situation is dark (ever go down a mine, say a mile under and turn the lights off; that kind of dark). World oil production peak is scheduled for 2008 and OPEC/NON-OPEC production is set to 'crossover' in 2006 (I may have these dates backwards). That is to say 'swing-share' for OPEC reaches the 50% mark; I believe today it is in the order of 35%. The Middle East producers will be calling the shots in 5 years my good man; are they calling the shots now?

The oil situation is grim, however NG (as I recall BB has mentioned once or twice before, is 'the real sleeper'!) is being called upon to solve ALL oil 'deficiency related' problems. The first time BB mentioned 'rig count doubling and 2% production rise' I thought he was in his 'neighbours garden'. I have since heard at least 2 or 3 times of the same statistic. When these fuel cells kick in, and in 2 or 3 years I may add demand for NG increases, this is not to mention of course the huge curve for electricity needs.

To make a long story short, we are smucked. As we enter the mid-point of this decade, watch your back. This quarter (of this century) the mega-conglomerate EARTH Corporation is set for a huge loss, visibility is non-existant, energy costs are skyrocketing, fiat assets are written-off, the 'balance sheet' has been tossed into a fire and looking forward.....to hell with it, we're not looking forward, we dream of the past.

TSHTF: the slop hits the fan
NIBW: not if but when

Black Blade

(08/16/2001; 06:28:01 MDT - Msg ID: 59705)

Dollar Falls to Five-Month Low vs Euro on U.S. Growth Concern

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AO3uYmRUKRG9sbGFy
Snippit:

London, Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell to a five- month low against the euro and lost earlier gains against the yen on concern the U.S. economy isn't recovering from a period of slower growth. ``Everybody's pessimistic now'' about the U.S. economy, said Neil Hitchens, who helps oversee about $14 billion at Global Asset Management. ``The dollar's managed to fall against all major currencies,'' and may drop as low as 93 cents per euro and 118 yen in coming days, he said. Signs of slower growth tend to weaken a currency by deterring investors from financial assets. U.S. reports showing the economy is struggling were backed up by International Monetary Fund comments this week saying the U.S. current-account deficit sets the dollar up for a ``sharp depreciation.'' The IMF also said the U.S. may suffer a protracted slowdown.

Black Blade: So much for Sec. O'Neil's "Strong Dollar Policy."

Black Blade

(08/16/2001; 06:50:16 MDT - Msg ID: 59706)

O'Neill says US dollar policy unchanged

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010815/n15186556.htmlSnippit:

WASHINGTON, Aug 15 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill tried to stamp out market speculation that the administration is changing its strong dollar policy by reiterating on Wednesday that policy remained unchanged. Earlier in the day, spokesmen for Treasury and the White House had also issued statements reaffirming the strong dollar policy. ``One of the things I've learned in this job is that there is no upside in talking about the dollar except to say we have a continuing, continuous policy'' O'Neill said in an interview on CNBC. ``We've still got the same dollar policy,'' he added.

Black Blade: And what a policy it is too! USD falling fast.

Black Blade

(08/16/2001; 06:59:15 MDT - Msg ID: 59707)

Gas posts big gain after inventory report

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/business/1009348
Snippit:

NEW YORK -- Natural gas had its biggest gain in eight months Wednesday after a report showed that U.S. inventories rose less than expected last week. Supplies in underground storage rose 3 billion cubic feet to 2.29 trillion, the smallest increase this year, the report from the American Gas Association showed. Analysts had expected a gain of about 64 billion cubic feet. Natural gas for September delivery rose 37.4 cents, or 12.1 percent, to $3.468 per thousand cubic feet on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest closing price since June 22. It was the biggest one-day gain since Dec. 15.

Black Blade: AGA does not post the data on it's site anymore, so I now wait an extra day for the data. Anyway, storage injection rates will slow further in the next couple of months and seasonal drawdowns shortly after.

Gotta Run!

justamereBear

(08/16/2001; 07:05:26 MDT - Msg ID: 59708)

Canuck

Don't look now, but the USD index has just turned up. The PPT must have gotten up early this morning. Oh well, these things never go in a straight line, and 7 cents fall in the USD index in the last month indicates a breather is due.

Yes, that last line does sound better that way. As to the rest of it, we have a row of dominoes here. If Black Blades pronostications are correct, (and I believe they are) then the hydrocarbon crisis will precipitate a financial crisis. If there is a financial crisis, no money gets thrown at the energy problem, and the energy crisis deepens. There are several other dominoes in this row IMHO, each with massive potential, that do not seem to be on the radar of the populace.
They all have the same characteristics of the energy crisis. Aids is expanding exponentially, and it appears theoretically at least, that the entire planet will be HIV positive around 2007, or 2008. Not that it will happen as theory says, but it will happen. What will that do, in fact what IS it doing to the tax collections of countries in the Lake Victoria region of Africa? No money to throw at anything. There are others.

Have you seen the latest from Hubbert? He is now postulating the steep part of the curve for 2007. Not far away. Anyway we are preaching to the converted. Personally I prefer to pursue the question of how life will be under a financial crisis, or an energy crisis. They both appear certain. Exactly what will day to day life be like? If I knew that, then I would make further preparations.

You say this quarter century. I expect blood will run this decade, but then I usually hedge a bit with my dates too.

j'Bear

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/16/2001; 07:06:20 MDT - Msg ID: 59709)

Who hates what is happening,? Japan (we have an incestuous relationship

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=d12Weak dollar is final death blow to Japan. Japan will dump the dollar, and commit hari kari(sp) first

45 More days of the blue line will take care of the red line. See link!!!

HBM

Black Blade

(08/16/2001; 07:08:02 MDT - Msg ID: 59710)

Speaking of Gold - Gold Digger Comes Up Short (From the Lighter Side)

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/front/1009335
Smith shouldn't get a dime, judge rules

Snippit:

After two judges, a five-month celebrity trial televised on Court TV and half a dozen years of legal wrangling, the estate of oil tycoon J. Howard Marshall II was finally settled in probate court Wednesday. Marshall's widow, Anna Nicole Smith (former stripper and Playboy Playmate), and her stepson J. Howard Marshall III have no claim to the estate, according to Harris County Probate Judge Mike Wood. E. Pierce Marshall stands to inherit the estate, valued at up to $1.6 billion, if he wins an appeal of a California federal bankruptcy court ruling that awarded Smith $475 million last year.

J. Howard Marshall II married Smith in 1994; she was 26 and he was 89. He died the next year.

Black Blade: Aw - Come on, she sacrificed what was probably was the best year of her life. ;-)

Enough - gotta go.

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/16/2001; 07:16:03 MDT - Msg ID: 59711)

justamereBear @ # 59708

Sir JBear

Do you think intervention is in order yet? Intervention will not work, never has and never will, IMO.

It will happen, the fall of the dollar. If not now then later. How much later, who knows. I think before July, 2002. Also what is happening before our eyes is a statement from Japanese stock market investors, the statement being, "You are going to kill us with that weakened dollar. You are driving us into a corner. You are not going to take us down with you. If we have to we will abandon the dollar. Abandonding the dollar cannot be worse than what is happening to us. Is that clear." - end of message from Japan.

Very respectfully,

HBM

AEL

(08/16/2001; 07:51:00 MDT - Msg ID: 59712)

Eamonn Fingleton, FYI

http://www.unsustainable.org
http://www.unsustainable.org/about_un.asp

Unsustainable.org is a non-partisan forum for discussing
America's trade problems. It focuses particularly on the
effects of misguided trade policies in undermining not only
America's industrial and employment base but its sovereignty
and its freedom of action on the world stage. The site makes
common cause with allies across the political spectrum -- from
labor unions and environmental groups to industry associations
and organizations concerned with America's national security.

Unsustainable.org invites the participation of all who are
interested in an honest discussion of globalization's effects
on American jobs, business interests, technological
preeminence, defense capabilities, and world leadership.

The forum was founded by Eamonn Fingleton, a financial
journalist and author who, after fifteen years of watching the
American trade debate from a vantage point in Tokyo, is
convinced that the American public is being massively -- and
disastrously -- misled about the realities of globalization.
The site is funded by a Midwest-based benefactor and draws on
services provided by the Washington-based United States
Business and Industry Council Educational Foundation.
Unsustainable.org hails the courage, persistence, and
intellectual leadership USBICEF has displayed in fighting
America's misguided trade policies and is honored to feature
trade commentaries by USBICEF's policy analysts at this site.
It does not, however, necessarily endorse other aspects of
USBICEF's policy program.

In his youth, the site's benefactor fought in the Pacific
theater in World War II and later served in the U.S. military
in Occupation-era Japan. In his subsequent business career,
he came to know some of Japan's most famous business leaders.

Why the name Unsustainable.org? The name comes from the
headline over Eamonn Fingleton's cover story on trade in the
August 14, 2000, issue of The American Prospect. That headline
in turn echoed Federal Reserve Board chairman Alan Greenspan's
famous comment on America's mounting trade deficits.

------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.unsustainable.org/HI_Comments.asp

More than $350,000,000,000! That's Fingleton's latest forecast
for America's total trade deficit in 2001. Click here to see
how huge that number really is.

In Praise of Hard Industries: Why Manufacturing, Not the
Information Economy, Is the key to Future Prosperity

� "Eamonn Fingleton is a bravely original-minded writer, whose
challenges to the prevailing wisdom of the time are based on
detailed reporting and always worth considering. His skeptical
look at the software/Internet boom is important while the boom
is going on and will seem even more intriguing once it is
over." -- James Fallows, author of Breaking the News

� "From time to time, a book is published that alters national
thought about an otherwise settled topic. In Praise of Hard
Industries is such a book. In lucid prose, supported by solid
facts, distinguished financial analyst Eamonn Fingleton
destroys the prevailing myths that nations should abandon
manufacturing for information service industries. Point by
point, Fingleton demonstrates why strengthening U.S.
manufacturing, rather than the current policy of abandoning
it, is the key to America's long-term success. This book is
must reading for lawmakers and serious students of the U.S.
economy's future. " -- Roger Milliken, CEO of Milliken Inc.

� "At a Third World conference, Akio Morita admonished the
emerging countries that they first had to develop a strong
manufacturing capability in order to become a nation state.
Then he added 'That world power that loses its manufacturing
base will cease to be a world power.' Eamonn Fingleton's
brilliant analysis, In Praise of Hard Industries, tells why."
-- Senator Ernest F. Hollings

� "In his new book about why manufacturing, not the
information economy, is the key to future prosperity, Eamonn
Fingleton exposes so many hypes and punctures so many myths
that the few hypes and myths that he furthers can be forgiven
against the benefit of this powerful critique of the
conventional party line." -- Ralph Nader, Washington, D.C.

� "In Praise of Hard Industries is a seminal work -- one that
policy makers will fiercely debate for many years. In this
tightly written critique, financial analyst Eamonn Fingleton
convincingly demolishes the fundamental assumption that
undergirds current U.S. economic policy -- namely that
advanced economies should sacrifice their manufacturing base
in favor of information-based sectors. If the Fingleton view
prevails in national debate, shifts in U.S. economy policy are
inevitable. " -- Pat Choate, author and economist

� "It is close to impossible to get Americans today to
understand that an economy based on manufacturing and an
economy based on finance are not equivalent. Manufacturing
provides jobs for the largest number of citizens; finance is
the non value-adding but crisis-provoking segment of modern
society. Japan is the world's leading manufacturing country;
the United States is the stronghold of finance capitalism.
This is the best book on why that distinction matters. It is
indispensable reading for Americans who wonder what the world
will be like after Wall Street's bull market ends." --
Chalmers Johnson, author of MITI and the Japanese Miracle

� "Eamonn Fingleton's remarkable tour de force demolishes
dangerous myths--mainly that large economies like America's
can flourish indefinitely while down-sizing and exporting its
vital manufacturing industries, and that U.S. business is
leading a 'post-industrial' world towards a bright,
non-industrial,all-digital future. This powerful book must
make policy-makers and managers think again, and should make
them act decisively to meet a grave challenge."-- Robert
Heller, author of The Fate of IBM

--------------------------------------------------------------

� Back to Hard Industries main page
Assessments by The New York Times Book Review, Publisher's Weekly,
Amazon.com, The Industry Standard, and Library Journal.

� Reviews of Hard Industries
Assessments by The New York Times Book Review, Publisher's Weekly,
Amazon.com, The Industry Standard, and Library Journal.

� Read the first chapter of Hard Industries

� Buy Hard Industries at Amazon.com

� Also by Eamonn Fingleton: Blindside

------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/feature/-/5942/002-3266977-2369619

America's Postindustrial Nightmare?

A conversation with Eamonn Fingleton

Just when everything seems to be going right in the American
economy, Eamonn Fingleton steps to the plate. In Praise of
Hard Industries is Fingleton's warning that America's
foundation in key manufacturing industries is crumbling
because of its focus on postindustrial activities such as
finance, computer software, and Internet services. Currently
based in Tokyo, Fingleton is a former editor at The Financial
Times and Forbes. Amazon.com recently spoke with Fingleton
about the loss of manufacturing in the U.S. and the real
strength of the Japanese economy.

Amazon.com: What's the biggest reason that American business
has let manufacturing slip overseas? Is it the pressure from
Wall Street for short-term profits, which discourages the kind
of investment necessary to promote a manufacturing base, or
government policy?

Eamonn Fingleton: It is ideology--the belief that if
everything is left to free markets, things will work out fine.
That philosophy was sound in the 18th century and it still is
today in many areas of economic policymaking where the matters
at issue are purely domestic. But, given that we now must
contend with a highly globalized market in advanced
manufactured goods, a complacent laissez-faire approach is a
recipe for allowing foreign governments the right by default
to shape America's future economic destiny. Other nations have
identified key advanced manufacturing industries as pillars of
their future prosperity. The immediate result is that margins
come under severe pressure in such industries. Obeying the
laws of the market, American players cut back on investment
and begin sourcing more and more from abroad, to the point
where today many of them are little more than design and
marketing operations. I won't mention any names, but anyone
who analyzes U.S. trade figures can easily see that most of
America's formerly world-beating high-tech manufacturers are
now hollowed-out hulks that depend heavily on higher-wage
nations for their most sophisticated manufactured inputs. The
most obvious such nation is Japan. Despite everything you have
heard about Japan's financial difficulties in recent years,
Japanese wages are 20 to 40 percent higher than American
levels. Yet Japan is the principal source of the components
and materials and entire finished products that make up such a
big part of America's supposed manufacturing output these
days.

.....
.....
.....

[continued at the URL...]

Tommy P

(08/16/2001; 08:15:20 MDT - Msg ID: 59713)

Days of Reckoning

http://biz.yahoo.com/st/010816/28632.htmlGood read!

Buena Fe

(08/16/2001; 08:20:26 MDT - Msg ID: 59714)

anguish of an every day fund mananger

......money is very nervous.......running to bonds.....(will it be a huge trap?).....want to run from something that is forming in the pit of my stomach, much much denial (its called the "wall of worry") in a bull market), what if, what if........the hidden inflation built into the US$ is exposed..........panic........do we do the unthinkable and break in a new direction???, gold........commodities.....all things real? Oh my stomach hurts........surely they'l save us from THAT! Quick turn on CNBC for a comfort fix! AAH thats better CPI down big!

What!!!!!! mostly because of energy declines ......but.......but NG and oil have just jumped back up.....so .....so those saving have already been taken back...........Oooooooooooooh ,,, com'n PPT buy up those futures and maintain perceptions while I BREAK rank and jump to gold!!!!!

sector

(08/16/2001; 09:37:33 MDT - Msg ID: 59715)

NewsMax.Com...US Gold "Gone"

http://www.newsmax.com/Getting some coverage here in the main headlines.

About the tempest in a teapot between Tlaga and Turk...Turk wins:

Here is the link to the exact .pdf document (not linked in the Turk piece) which describes the link between gold and SDRs: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/mfs/manual/index.htm

There is no doubt that the drawdown of ESF SDRs represents the sale of US physical gold assets. 87% of the US total has been sold.

Now the Treasury may lay claim to unmined gold and thus assert that the account is even with the "Deep Storage Gold" definition but that hardly seems kosher does it? That would be turning an asset into a promise to pay...a liability.

jinx44

(08/16/2001; 10:05:35 MDT - Msg ID: 59716)

NESARA ACT

www.nesara.orgThis is the best part of the act: "All existing laws or regulations authorizing governmental seizure of precious metals or prohibiting the recovery and use of the bullion content of lawful coins are hereby repealed."

Sierra Madre

(08/16/2001; 10:10:41 MDT - Msg ID: 59717)

Eamonn Fingleton and "In Praise of Hard Industries"

I have immediately the feeling - having read AEL's good post on Eamonn Fingleton's new book - that this book is going to have a great impact on America.

There are moments when a single book crystallizes what everyone has been feeling and, of a sudden, everyone realizes that, "that is exactly what I was thinking".

I'm getting my copy right away, and I feel sure I won't be disappointed.

The "New World Order" is going to have a hard time discrediting this book.

Questions: Can America rebuild its manufacturing might, without a prior monetary reform? Can manufacturing might be achieved without the moral foundation of sound, hard, clinking money and redeemable notes? Not likely!

Gold is thus, not the past, but THE FUTURE.

Sierra

site steward

(08/16/2001; 10:34:30 MDT - Msg ID: 59718)

Fed adds, Treasury buys back debt

With the market in overnight funds trading in line with the FOMC target rate (3.75%), the Federal Reserve still saw fit to add $2 billion (28-day repos) and $3.495 billion (7-day RPs) as temporary reserves to the nation's banking system.

The U.S. Treasury Department joined the bond market action with an early buyback of $1.75 billion in government debt.

In case you were wondering, this Treasury action likely had no net effect on banking reserves, unlike similar bond purchasing action done by the Fed (such as seen yesterday where the Fed bought $1.384 billion in Treasuries). The reason is that the Treasury's source of buyback funds most likely came from its Tax and Loan accounts. These accounts already reside within the realm of "banking reserves", and therefore, the buyback would simply redistribute the ownership without changing the quantity of the reserves in play.

But then again, the Treasury might have drawn solely upon its general account with the Fed, effectively adding to banking reserves in such an event...

Bottom line: By holding dollars instead of gold, you have effectively outsourced the stewardship of your saving's purchasing power to others, primarily a group of government monetary authorities.

Hold gold and be the captain of your own fortune.

R.

Sierra Madre

(08/16/2001; 10:52:23 MDT - Msg ID: 59719)

AIDS!!

Mr. Kosares, I beg your patience as I post something that is not directly on-topic; I feel I must express these thoughts:

It seems to me that the world is the object of a vast campaign to induce FEAR.

It is clear that passion, induced in the populace, is a requisite for revolutionary action. The sexual passion is the most easily incited, and thus, all violent revolution is preceded by a thorough incitement to sexual "liberation"; those who incite, thus control the masses by that passion.

FEAR is also a passion, and can also be used to manipulate the masses.

I believe that Aids is being used to foment fear, the world over. Every day, all over the world, people are bombarded with falsified and distorted statistics calculated to provoke fear. This has a profound political purpose, which is not entirely clear to me. But I can sense that behind this co-ordinated "Aids Plague" campaign, lies a "social engineering" (i.e. manipulative) objective.

I ask all readers to check out the following site, run by a great American heroine, Christine Maggiore - Aids Positive and mother of a perfectly healthy child, and perfectly healthy herself (and expecting a new arrival any day now):
www.aliveandwell.org

She has produced a remarkable book: "What if Everything You Thought You Knew About Aids Was Wrong?" I urge all, to read it.

The "Aids Dissenters" are NOT in denial. (Christine's book is complemented with a very large number of references to documented and published scientific sources, for everything she says) They are like us "goldbugs" - a minority with the truth, but dismissed by the powers that be: the laboratories, and the research community which depends on government grants available only to those that subscribe to the HIV=AIDS=DEATH theory, and the medical profession which is made up of individual doctors that do not dare question the theory.

We must not live in fear. Check out the site, and read the book! Aids is a hoax, like paper money.

Sincerely, Sierra.

site steward

(08/16/2001; 10:54:09 MDT - Msg ID: 59720)

Absolutely shameful

http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2001/08/16/rtr330835.htmlWASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said Thursday it settled its case against the last of four COMEX floor brokers it had charged with fraudulently trading ahead of customer gold option orders and changing prices on trades to their customers' detriment. .... The CFTC alleged they had fraudulently executed trades in the COMEX gold options ring between Sept 27 and Oct 5, 1999, a time of record volume in the market.
-----------

The trader in question did not admit to any wrong-doing, but accepted a light slap on the wrist -- a suspension from trading for six months, and a one-year prohibition against dual trading (for his own account alongside customer accounts). He's still in business, folks, along with others of his disposition. How much real control do you have over your own fortune? Choose your business associates wisely.

R.

Tree in the Forest

(08/16/2001; 11:50:25 MDT - Msg ID: 59721)

We're out of gold!

I just took James Turk's data on SDR certificates and plotted it against time and used Excel's trend projections. A very interesting chart. According to this chart, the US will run out of gold in the middle of August 2001...NOW! I'd like to post this chart. Perhaps RossL can help? Thanks.

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/16/2001; 12:01:19 MDT - Msg ID: 59722)

Tree in the Forest @ # 59721

Sir Tree

I do not think RossL is allowed to post here anymore, sad to say. However, he still lurks and I think if you would post the data he would take a look at it and possibly make it available for the perusal of all.

Very respectfully,

HBM

Gandalf the White

(08/16/2001; 12:39:21 MDT - Msg ID: 59723)

Look at this Chart and see the forthcoming FREE FALL !

http://www.securitytrader.com/charts/chart.asp?availability=F∈dex=^OEX&ChartID=30601&ChartType=DThe 600 Level of the OEX is being broken RIGHT NOW !
Look out BELOW !! The PPT will not be able to push on the top 100 string any more. Get your USAGOLD order in soon.
<;-)

Old Yeller

(08/16/2001; 12:49:42 MDT - Msg ID: 59724)

Bugos vs.Wanniski;round 2

http://www.goldenbar.com/Briefs/HotAir.htm
I've always had trouble with Wanniski's reasoning and his bull-headed arrogance doesn't help much either.This discourse goes right to the heart of the $US conundrum,judge for yourself who will ultimately prevail.

I'm betting my fiat money on Mr.Bugos and our yellow friend.
As far as I'm concerned this statement is the ultimate truth and the inevitable undoing of the game.There are many forces out there working hard to perpetuate this illusion.

"Nevertheless,the value of the dollar in relation to other fiat paper is subjective."

Gandalf the White

(08/16/2001; 12:50:05 MDT - Msg ID: 59725)

Look at this chart and see if you can see the future !

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=dmaxWhat do you think the worldwide holders of US$ think ?
Is the paper worth holding when the YELLOW is so inexpensive ? You make up your own mind, and then, like the Hobbits, get your own pocket pieces.
<;-)

Old Yeller

(08/16/2001; 13:15:42 MDT - Msg ID: 59726)

Murphy goes mainstream

Excellent,CBSMarketwatch coverage.When one takes James Turk's assertions together with Reg Howe's latest about Larry Summer's economic theories on gold price targeting,the murky picture becomes a lot clearer.

The bunch of nuts have come a long way,haven't they,Mr. Oliphant?

Cavan Man

(08/16/2001; 13:46:50 MDT - Msg ID: 59727)

@CB (too)

One of your favorite parts of the world is on the front page of today's New York Times. Best......CM

BR549

(08/16/2001; 15:06:55 MDT - Msg ID: 59728)

Don't worry--It's just a small nuclear bomb

@ site steward (msg#: 59702)

Thanks for your kind words and helpful input. In reference to �throwing a rope around "the market" there is an old saying that if the rest of the world wanted to hang the United States, that American businessmen would bid on the contract to supply the rope.

@ slingshot (msg#: 59694)

I can't remember what I wanted to trade you for your land. Let's see, how about 6 pounds of first quality cut diamonds for your land? No, that wasn't it as I only accumulate physical gold. Just send the deed on down here to my shyster in Cornfield County. I'm sure we can work something out.
You got my number.

@AG&C-

If you and your fellow crooks raise interest rates again at your next FOMC meeting---
As Carmack used to say "May you and your cronies while driving on the Beltway at 80 mph during rush hour, look in your rear view mirror and see a brakeless Mexican Truck 6" away from your bumper." Why not lower rates to zero like the Japanese have done and get it over with?

@ East Coast of GA-

Fox news channel reports that the Pentagon has "accidentally" dropped a live nuclear bomb in the water off of Tybee Island, GA and it's still there. The reason this wasn't disclosed earlier is that you residents over there really didn't have a "need to know." Just keep your fishing lines off of the bottom and don't tug your hook snags real hard. Don't worry though, it hasn't blown up YET! The Pentagon will let you know a couple of months after it does.

@GE Jack's PR Machine-

Rep. Grucci (R-NY) warns that if you, and your fellow equity manipulators, don't self regulate your "pump and dump", that in order to protect the poor Sheeple, Congress may take a look at it.

Quit trembling now, he didn't really mean it.

nickel62

(08/16/2001; 15:13:18 MDT - Msg ID: 59729)

Tommy P ; Thank you for posting the URL for Day of Reckoning

http://biz.yahoo.com/st/010816/28632.htmlThe read is fantastic. Having spent twenty one years on Wall Street it is very interesting to see some of the unscrupulous player getting theirs. Thanks.

jayzee

(08/16/2001; 15:21:38 MDT - Msg ID: 59730)

HOW DOES THE PPT DISPOSE OF THE STOCKS THEY BUY?

I understand that the PPT buys index funds, and the index funds buys the index stocks which stops the falling prices.
How does the PPT then sell these stocks (funds) without depressing the prices? Could it be that the Federal Reserve Banks are accumulating a controlling interest in our major corporations? The Federal Reserve can create an unlimited amount of money to do this.
If someone knows the answer, please respond. Thanks!

Beowulf

(08/16/2001; 15:31:13 MDT - Msg ID: 59731)

Is he still waiting for a trial?

Does anyone know if Mr. Armstrong (I think that's his name) is still sitting in jail, without being charged, waiting for a speedy trial? I sure would like to here what he has to say.

-Beowulf

BR549

(08/16/2001; 16:35:45 MDT - Msg ID: 59732)

Widgenomics (Part#2)

Modern capitalism

Buyer = "B"
Shop owner="S"

B-You remember me?

S-Sure, you were in here before on 08/14/01 at 16:16:37MT.

B-I bought one of your SDR Certificates and I just tried to trade it for some new Russian Chervonetz coins. The Russian's wouldn't do it. Said they are having enough trouble getting rid of their stash of FRN's. Some of my ATR neighbors told me that these SDR Certificates are worthless.

S-Let me see that SDR Certificate. Yep, it is dated 2001. It's as good as any other paper we issue around here.

B-Where is my golden widget that I bought the other day?

S-You own it and we have got it safe down in the deepest part of the basement.

B-Can I have my PM's back that I traded for this SDR Certificate?

S-Sorry Sir, no refunds but we'll be glad to trade your SDR Certificate for that basket of currencies over in the corner.

B-I am going to have to ask my Attorney James Turk if only the pre-1973 SDR's represented by these Gold Certificates are backed by gold. Maybe my friend MK can help me out on this as he just spoke with Sir Turk. I'll be back LATER.

S-I hope we're still in business.

auspec

(08/16/2001; 16:35:51 MDT - Msg ID: 59733)

Beowulf

Yes, Martin Armstrong is still behind bars awaiting trial. I did not know that he had not been formally charged, are you sure? He is supposedly defending himself, lack of funds being a primary factor. I have run across a 'Martin Armstrong Defense Fund' sollicitation. I Would also love to hear him break out in 'song'!
Best to you.

Old Yeller

(08/16/2001; 17:08:38 MDT - Msg ID: 59734)

The unbearable frustration of being a gold advocate

http://m1.mny.co.za/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256AAA007468CB?OpenDocument
This article says it all.Stonewalling and obfuscation mixed with legalized bobbing and weaving and finally what is done is right because it's in the national interest.Reg Howe's case in discovery will help clear the smokescreen but I'm not too optimistic given the opponent's considerable influence and resources.

Thanks to AuGeo for the link.

Netking

(08/16/2001; 17:12:55 MDT - Msg ID: 59735)

Profits slump at tech giants

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1495000/1495399.stmSnippit:
Profits at Hewlett-Packard plummeted 89%, year on year, to $111m and profits at Dell, the world's top-ranking personal computer maker, slumped 28% to $433m in the May-to-July quarter, compared with a year before. . . so far received a mixed response from investors, who see them as a key indicator of the health of global tech giants.
- Netking

turkey hunter

(08/16/2001; 17:19:13 MDT - Msg ID: 59736)

@sector Newsmax.com article

I was looking for that article: U. S. Gold "Gone" on Newsmax.com and can't find it. Have they pulled it? I looked for it, but can't see it unless I am just over looking it. Thanks

auspec

(08/16/2001; 17:48:36 MDT - Msg ID: 59737)

Old Yeller

A big thanks for the link to Tim Wood's article at the Miningweb!

"The Fed and Treasury operate in the realm of the FBI and CIA. Elected representatives on related oversight committees are drawn into an enigmatic world and quickly concur that there is much the public does not need to know. The national interest, you know, and the very reason the ultra powerful ESF continues to exist." END

Comment: that nail was hit square and centered and is penetrating wood!

darkhorse

(08/16/2001; 18:03:45 MDT - Msg ID: 59738)

BR549 ( your post 59728)

I think the story FoxNews reported was of the declassification of documents pertaining to a collision between a bomber and fighter during exercises in the late fifties ('58 I think). The bomber tried to land with the bomb three times, but was unsuccessful so they decided to ditch the bomb. According to the Pentagon, they've decided to leave it alone because it would "...cost too much and be too dangerous" to find and remove. The people of Tybee Island aren't too happy and want it found and disposed of...talk about the ultimate case of NIMBY!

Canuck

(08/16/2001; 18:03:52 MDT - Msg ID: 59739)

@ sector

I went to the newsmax.com site as you posted to see "US Gold Gone". To what do you refer?

As you know, and as all of us desire to know, this Turk/Tlaga squabble is most important.

Thanks.

Canuck.

auspec

(08/16/2001; 18:18:42 MDT - Msg ID: 59740)

A Couple Punches by Midas Tonight

From Myra P. Saefong's www.CBS.MarketWatch.com commentary yesterday:

"Bullion banks are "trying hard to maintain a lid on gold's movement up," said John Mesrobian, president of Constantinople Advisors. However, "they shall fail in the end for they are significantly exposed to their derivative positions, dollar positions, and short gold positions and will be forced to cover as gold powers through and moves up."

You got it John. The day is coming closer and closer when they are blown away.

The $50 up day is most likely closer than most anyone can imagine.

If not because of the battle tactics of the GATA camp, then from a physical gold market that could seize up on the big shorts at any time too. The long term physical gold deals I have been telling you about for months are beginning to be finalized. Once consummated, that supply will not be available to present day buyers. In addition, I am hearing more and more about buyers going directly to producers trying to secure gold supply because bullion banks won't sell them physical anymore.

This recent feedback confirms other input that many bullion banks, especially the Swiss, are scrambling to secure gold for themselves to offset short positions.

The recipe for the gold neutron bomb to go off:

*A very tight physical gold market that cannot supply "would-be" buyers, in which the natural supply/demand deficit is 1700 tonnes+ per year and growing

*A massive derivative paper market - loaded with short side exposure derivatives that could melt up on an unexpected swift rise in the price of gold.

*A gold loan market that is probably some 12,000 to 16,000 tonnes and growing by the day - most of that gold being SOLD, not even lent - thus leaving no way to pay it back.

It is only a matter of time before that gold squeeze of epic proportions becomes a reality. END

auspec- GATA support and Cafe memberships has made this all possible. If we lose this one, there won't be much left worth having.

BR549

(08/16/2001; 18:37:51 MDT - Msg ID: 59741)

Get that nuke out of my back yard

http://www.tybeebomb.com/
darkhorse (msg#: 59738)--

"The Tybee Island bomb is a mystery many locals want solved. Deformed crabs, two headed fish and the like have taken center stage. The M-15 nuclear weapon, dropped approximately 6,000 ft from the Island into the ocean, seems to have 100 times the strength of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima in WWII. Forced by a mid-air collision between a fighter and a bomber, the bomb was dropped from 38,000 ft after numerous attempts to land the aircraft. Certainly it would have been difficult for a damaged aircraft to climb 7.196969696969697 miles (get this figure if you divide 38,000 by 5,280) to ditch the bomb. Why did it climb so high when the aircraft was trying to land? Were they protecting themselves for what they thought would have been an explosion? Who knows?"

Talk about the ultimate shark killer. When this thing blows we'll be eating glow in the dark two headed fish for years.

Another snipper from the same site: It took dropping another nuclear bomb 28 days later in Florence, SC, which detonated, to divert attention away from the Tybee bomb.

Fox News Channel once again is "right on"

You trust your government to tell you the truth, don't you? (Ha!)

uponroof

(08/16/2001; 19:04:02 MDT - Msg ID: 59742)

Martin Armstrong.....held in contempt of court....for 18 months now

http://www.armstrongdefensefund.org/Interesting how the court handled this case. Stripped Armstrong of his lawyers via confiscation of his assets. He now represents himself along with a public defender. Republic Bank has asked for a GAG order which will restrict Armstrongs public statements and allow Republic to withhold evidence. Armstrong is 'getting nowhere fast' for the last 18 months.....which is just what those in power want.

Armstrong talks as if he 'knows things'. He once alluded to his belief that those in control of POG would let it free sometime in 2002 as I recall. Perhaps he's updated his thoughts. I have not read through the link above in quite awhile (updated July 23 01.)

A bankster who got caught co-mingling funds and merging assets in ways not exactly 'kosher'. Gold was right in the middle of it as Republic was a major bullion Bank. He now is up against the SEC, CFTC, Republic Bank (now HSBC), and of course the USA gummint. If he knows anything, he's not giving it up until he can make a deal. Sad part is, what he knows may implicate the gummint....who he is trying to make a deal with.
****************************

sector-I'm here buddy and reading up. Not much time to respond, very busy these days. Keep up the great posts as I enjoyed your take on SDR's. I also could not find the NewsMax report. Even searched the site keywords: gold, SDR, and GATA. They must've pulled it or it is in the process of being relocated. If anyone finds it please post the link.

Best Always,

roof

auspec

(08/16/2001; 19:05:41 MDT - Msg ID: 59743)

ORO???

How about an SDR and international monetary lesson for the faithful?

slingshot

(08/16/2001; 19:16:32 MDT - Msg ID: 59744)

Tybee Nuke

Maybe some answers.
38,000 feet To pick a spot and put it on the dime.
6,000 feet off shore is for possible recovery.
Droping the device from that altitude would provide some
protection from discovery by a foreign power due to the penetration into the ocean floor. How long before contamination would depend on the corrosion the salt water does to the casing containing the fission material. Remember you need an atom bomb to set off a hydrogen bomb.
A hydrogen bomb sitting on top of a frozen methane field?
Anyone for boiled shrimp?

Br549 I live close GROUND ZERO! Thought you might want to know.
Slingshot

Tree in the Forest

(08/16/2001; 19:16:40 MDT - Msg ID: 59745)

sector

I saw the article on Newsmax but it has been pulled. Jim Turk's figures stop at 12/00. The trend chart I did shows the certificates are now all gone: 100% gone. Still trying to get it posted.

auspec

(08/16/2001; 19:20:43 MDT - Msg ID: 59746)

slingshot

If any nukes start going off it is BEST to be as close to ground zero as possible!

Gold

Cavan Man

(08/16/2001; 19:26:15 MDT - Msg ID: 59747)

auspec 59740

I have read where Murphy is calling for $600 (neighborhood) POG. If he is right and I believe he is, his forecast for POG is too little by half (IMHO).......(same for Veneroso)CM

Cavan Man

(08/16/2001; 19:32:00 MDT - Msg ID: 59748)

auspec

I agee with MK: a new international monetary accord is most likely with a valuation of POG at or near $1200 for starters. I believe the A/FOA camp has been using the web to pull the US into such a deal (my opinion not MK's). A return to the historical role of gold is in our future as soon as enough cover is provided. (IMHO)(I am a nitwit; NIA).....CM

uponroof

(08/16/2001; 19:53:55 MDT - Msg ID: 59749)

A quote from #12518-050 at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in lower Manhattan

http://www.armstrongdefensefund.org/press/drvstgy_10-00.htmMartin Armstrong:

"They think that by putting me in here they'll get me to plead guilty and cut some sort of deal, so it makes it easy for everybody, bullshit. I'm not going to do it...."

"I am the guy who knows all the dirty little secrets and how the SEC and CFTC will never go after the big boys because it will destroy much of Wall Street if the truth ever gets out. They want the average person to believe the markets are fair and safe because they regulate them...."

"They play a nice shell game. They keep your eye on assets while the real story goes untold."

slingshot

(08/16/2001; 19:59:27 MDT - Msg ID: 59750)

YOU SNOOZE, YOU LOOSE!

Before I tell you all this ,my wife was with me.

Went to pick up my usual the other day and had a surprize.
The coin dealer had no 1 OZS in gold. Having been backed into a corner by HIGHER PREMIUMS AT OTHER DEALERS I had to order. I prefer to take delivery in hand. Now when we finished doing business, the dealer states he just sold 18 one ozs yesterday. I smiled. My wife made some comments that were positive in nature. Have to watch those SMALL TIME INVESTORS. (STINTS) They will sneak up on you.
Slingshot

auspec

(08/16/2001; 20:10:37 MDT - Msg ID: 59751)

Yes Murphy and Veneroso have been calling for a clearing or equilibrium POG of $600 for a couple years now. At this point they likely repeat this prediction for shear simplicity's sake, as the games continue the stakes grow correspondingly greater. If you were to pin them down they would likely be predicting a considerably higher price by now. Midas keeps calling for a day move of $50, that could serve as an attention getter, no? IA {ha}.
Gold will break free this year!
Regards,
a

sector

(08/16/2001; 20:20:33 MDT - Msg ID: 59752)

@Canuck NewsMax.com Changed Headlines...Turk is Still Correct

Indeed the headlines changed and the "Gold is Gone" GATA story has been replaced by others as the other leaders were also changed I'm not buying a "spike" from NewsMax...just routine churning.

As for the SDR's, Turk is correct-- the SDRs represent claims on US physical gold. The IMF Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual; Section #4; Monetary Gold and SDRs clearly stipulates the relationships between SDRs and gold.

A holder of SDRs has a claim against gold. This is simply not subject to interpretation by Tlaga who I believe just didn't bother to take the time to download the large 695K .pdf file.

The conclusion that the draw down of ESF SDRs of about 87% is inescapable. Moreover, disingenuous statements by Treasury and the Fed are now seen to be transparent falsehoods.

There is no debate between Tlaga and Turk. Tlaga just got it wrong.

Black Blade

(08/16/2001; 20:21:21 MDT - Msg ID: 59753)

Forbes Body Count

http://www.forbes.com/2001/01/30/layoffs.html
The "Bone Pile" grows. The unemployment numbers released today are really meaningless. These are VooDoo Statistics as the BLS routinely adds 35,000 per month to the employment rolls based on the assumption that many unemployed that do not qualify for benefits find employment, others have been downsized repeatedly, and a seasonality factor. Now consider that in spite of the BLS "cooking the books" so to speak, unemployment continues to rise. This is not a healthy economy.

BTW, it appears that the Market indices had another miraculous late session "turnaround" on no news - "Interesting"

- Black Blade

BILLYG

(08/16/2001; 20:27:27 MDT - Msg ID: 59754)

Live Quote

First I love Kitco but is there some place on the net I can get live Gold Quotes. Some times it seems there are 30 to 50 minutes slow. Thanks in advance. BIllyG

p.s. I hope I am WRONG here but I feel the dollar is close to a bottom, Gold is near a top, and the gold stocks are feeling heavy, I also think we may have seen the highs for the year. I also read this disussion forum every day for years and you guys are too bullish for me. The gold charts are going to look bad with a lower top here. I have alot to think about this weekend. Still holding profits and want to keep them before I lose them. :-(

Black Blade

(08/16/2001; 20:28:09 MDT - Msg ID: 59755)

Boeing to Lay Off 600 at California Plant

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010816/business_transport_boeing_layoffs_dc.html
Snippit:

SEATTLE (Reuters) - Boeing Co. (NYSE:BA), the world's largest planemaker, said on Thursday it would lay off 600 workers at its Long Beach, California, plant, citing slow sales of its smallest model, the 106-seat 717 jetliner. Boeing will eliminate two of the three shifts on the 717 line and, including another 600 layoffs announced earlier this year, will shrink Long Beach commercial jet jobs to under 4,000 from just under 5,000 on Thursday, Boeing spokesman John Thom said. ``Today at a meeting the boss (Long Beach General Manager Jim Phillips) talked about how we have to respond to the slower market and the fact that we are going to have fewer planes to build in 2002,'' Thom said.

Black Blade: "Dem Bones - Dem Bones, Dem Dry Bones" added to the "Bone Pile."

megatron

(08/16/2001; 20:31:11 MDT - Msg ID: 59756)

2002

Don't sweat, 2002 isn't that far off. Comin' like a frieght train. All it will take is one stool pigeon, or one of AG's moron relatives to fall asleep at the switch. KaBoom. Keep your eye on the volume of the TSE PM and junior's index.

Black Blade

(08/16/2001; 20:36:07 MDT - Msg ID: 59757)

Industry Standard shuts doors, lays off staff

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010816/n16280432_6.html
Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO/NEW YORK, Aug 16 (Reuters) - The Industry Standard, whose pages chronicled the hope and the hubris of the dot-com revolution, announced Thursday it was suspending publication and laying off most of its staff -- the latest victim of the slumping technology sector it once celebrated. The move to shutter what had become a glittering symbol of San Francisco's high-tech revolution came as publishers struggle with a deteriorating advertising climate and a sharp economic slowdown. The magazine will officially suspend publication Monday and all of the remaining 180 staffers, except for about 15, Jonathan Weber, the magazine's editor-in-chief, told Reuters after Thursday's announcement. ``I'm very upset and very sad about it. I don't think it needed to happen this way,'' he said.

Black Blade: More Bones tossed high onto the growing pile.

BR549

(08/16/2001; 20:39:54 MDT - Msg ID: 59758)

Nukes in sling's backyard

slingshot (msg#: 59744)

@ My buddy Sling-

Since you live near ground zero, do you think that salt water will not corrode that Nuke bomb and eventually contaminate the water offshore? The Pentagon says that this bomb in non-nuke. Do you believe them? What is the feeling of the other citizens at ground zero? Is recovering the bomb really a matter of the Pentagon trying to save money? (Ha! It'll be the first time) I won't even ask you if you trust the government, I already know the answer to that.

My point earlier in re: to FoxNews.com and their TV cable channel is that I would rather have 15 minutes of Britt Hume, et al, than 1 year of Dan Rather and the rest of the network pukes. The word around Washington according to my buddies still trapped there, is during the first 2 months of the Chandra Levy missing episode was that she was watching Dan Rather and didn't know she was missing. Is there any doubt whom is going to end up with scumbag Rep. Gary's interview now that she is probably missing forever?

I noticed that Walt Disney, a Dow stock (and owner of ABC news) has a P/E ratio of 133/1 as compared with others Dow components at around 24/1. Do you think that this is a result of the ridiculous bonus plans of their CEO and some of his cronies. Walt has got to be spinning in his grave about what they have done to his dream.

I am not anti-military, I am quite the opposite-so don't get me wrong. However, I do think that some of our modern military leaders put being politically correct over doing the right thing and "telling the truth". I think the lesson that the gubbment should learn is---that if you are going to drop a nuke on somebody, don't drop it on the Tybee Island "fat cats". Instead, drop it on Florence.

Highest Regards from Cornfield County

Black Blade

(08/16/2001; 20:45:36 MDT - Msg ID: 59759)

Natural Gas Prices Rising!

http://www.energyintel.com/ResDocDetail.asp?document_id=41286
Regional Hub prices for natural gas are rising strongly. Natural gas production is nearly flat in the face of rising demand. Could get "interesting" this Winter. Many more US homes are heated with NG than heating oil.

Max Rabbitz

(08/16/2001; 20:54:48 MDT - Msg ID: 59760)

I need a little help on that SDR and Gold Link

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/mfs/manual/index.htmSir Sector, I'm having a hard time finding the SDR link to gold on the PDF file you mentioned. I did a word search on the entire document for both gold and SDRs. It is difficult to read their books because both gold and SDRs are listed together, I think because they have no corresponding liabilities. I did find the following relevant parts in Section #4 that you mentioned. Is this what you mean?

MONETARY GOLD AND SDRS

121. Monetary gold and SDRs issued by the IMF
are financial assets for which there are no
corresponding financial liabilities. Monetary gold
consists only of gold held by the central bank or
government (or by others subject to the effective
control of the central bank or government) as
part of official reserves. Gold holdings that are
not part of official reserves are classified as
nonfinancial assets.

122. Purchases (sales) of monetary gold are
recorded in the accounts of the central bank as
increases (decreases) in assets, and the
counterparts are recorded as decreases (increases)
in assets of the rest of the world. Transactions in
nonmonetary gold are treated as transactions in
nonfinancial assets.

123. SDRs are international reserve assets
created by the IMF and allocated to members to
supplement existing official reserves. IMF
members to whom SDRs are allocated do not have
an actual (unconditional) liability to repay their
SDR allocations. SDRs are held only by IMF
member countries and a limited number of
international financial institutions that are
authorized holders. SDR holdings represent
unconditional rights to obtain foreign exchange or
other reserve assets from other IMF members.
order, direct debit/credit, or other direct payment
facility.

Canuck

(08/16/2001; 20:56:06 MDT - Msg ID: 59761)

@ sector

Thank you Sir for the confirmation.

This is monumental news and I believe ultra-pivotal for gold short-term. Checking BobbyG's message below I feel that the (gold) stocks are getting a little heavy right now.
The stocks lead POG in November and are tired waiting for POG to catch up. IHO, the stocks are pricey for 275 gold.
Your thoughts?

Further, how long might one wait for this SDR business to filter through 'chief' ranks. I'm getting squirmish, want to go long(er) with the Turk news but nervous of a hit down
ie: news today spoke of major US introvention in the ME.

Up or down short term?

Black Blade

(08/16/2001; 21:04:16 MDT - Msg ID: 59762)

The Bottom Line

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B68E2669C%2D974A%2D479D%2DB452%2D942E2EA00F7D%7D&siteid=mktw
Snippit:

But what kind of reported earnings is the most realistic and valuable gauge of a company's true profitability? The most reliable are the so-called GAAP earnings, which are arrived at by using the Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. The Financial Accounting Standards Board, a non-profit organization responsible for establishing principles of financial accounting and reporting, designs these rules. However, an increasing number of companies -- particularly in high tech and other New Economy fields -- are emphasizing a more aggressive and creative form of accounting that produces "pro forma earnings." These are separate from the GAAP earnings. And the accounting methods used to generate them allow companies to plump up profits -- or turn a loss into a reported profit -- by excluding a whole slew of expenses.

By employing the looser pro forma method, companies can show what their earnings would look like without accounting for losses from investments made in other firms, as well as the costs of advertising, research and development, stock-based compensations, acquisition-related expenses, loans to customers and many other things that would otherwise subtract from profitability.

Black Blade: Also known as "Cooking the Books." Many companies such as Cisco have no earnings and they rely on "Pro Forma" accounting to "Cook the Books" in order to pull a fast one on their investors. This is a widespread scam where unprofitable companies report that they are profitable. One of the worst offenders is Amazon.com. They are unprofitable - probably never ever likely to become profitable and the "Burn Rate" is tremendously high. Look for Amazon to file chapter 11 early next year or seek to be bought out by some company like AOL Time Warner to salvage the carcass.

slingshot

(08/16/2001; 21:15:52 MDT - Msg ID: 59763)

BR549 Glow in the dark

Salt water corrosion would be of concern. The designers would be concerned with stray voltage in arming of the devise. A bomb falling from 38,000 ft would be like a dart
droping in a pail of water. Now the factors of how deep was the water and what was the sea bottom composition would be of concern. Since the devise did not detonate the deeper in the mud the better. Tide shifts may be a factor. Could it have been a training devise? They sure did not want anyone to see it. New design? I would think if there was a chance that the fissionable material would go critical (DETONATE) that recovery efforts would at maxium. I am not concerned about it. Others may be. On contamination. I will be on the lookout for glowing shrimp cocktails.
Wonder if gold is used for electrial circuits in a nuke?
Slingshot

megatron

(08/16/2001; 21:42:09 MDT - Msg ID: 59764)

ok lets try it again, 35 minutes of typing........

Anyway, once the swelling in my hand goes down from my erased last post, .......and release.aaaaaa

Ok.

Lets examine the logistics of the TSE PM index rise. In the last ten years or so everybody 'learned' to buy stocks they 'knew' would go up, and give them a nice capital gain. Since Joe Public knows absolutely nothing about mining stocks, we can eliminate them from the buying trend, and most of the cognicenti buy undervalued juniors, not in the index. The remaining buyers see what you and I do. Flat to down gold and silver prices. Someone with cash is betting consistently on much higher PM's. Why else would they continue to trend this index higher? Common sense should tell them to low ball bid the stock, yet since Nov. they have stepped up to the bid. Those someones are BIG INSIDERS in Gov't or Wall st. Corp insider trading would be noticed in a flash, and any significant buying of juniors would drive the price through the roof. The only way they can pull it off is with steady accumulation of the big ticket items,and a wink from you know who. The chart is obvious, my friends. It's 'con'nected gov't insiders, through offshore accounts. Ask Armstong.

Black Blade

(08/16/2001; 21:56:19 MDT - Msg ID: 59765)

Nukes In the Drink?

I recall that there were a couple of nukes lost in the Mediteranian off the coast of Spain in the 1970's when a US military aircraft went down. The nukes were eventually recovered. I don't remember all the gory details. Apparently losing nukes is nothing new.

- Black Blade

AEL

(08/16/2001; 22:07:19 MDT - Msg ID: 59766)

bizarre email that I just rcvd, FYI

From: "Boudewijn Wegerif"
Subject: MONEY MATTERS: NESARA + The US Treasury May Have 70% Less Gold Than It Says
Date: Fri, 17 Aug 2001 02:18:26 +0200

MONEY MATTERS -- 17 August 2001

NESARA + The US Treasury May Have 70% Less Gold Than It Says

___________________________

Dear list members,

Two days ago I had an e-mail from somebody whom I do not regard as
reliable, and who is not a list member, saying that something BIG
would be happening within 72 hours, connected with NESARA. I
deleted the message. And now here I am writing about the
possibility that something BIG is indeed happening, connected with
NESARA.

At www.nesara.org , you will see that NESARA is an acronym for
National Economic Stabilization and Recovery Act and that there is
a growing movement for this monetary reform bill to be passed into
law in the US.

An "Executive Summary" of the Act follows below. The purpose is to
enable the United States Treasury to buy and cancel all
outstanding capital stock of the Federal Reserve Banks and for a
new United States Treasury Reserve System to be established, which
will issue silver and coin coins as legal tender, along with
"treasury credit notes".

I would not be writing about this if I had not received two
e-mails today in which NESARA is mentioned again -- on the very
day that I have been considering the startling revelation, via
other e-mails, that the US Treasury Department may have 70% less
gold than it says it has. If and when this breaking news is proved
to be correct, there is going to be a big call for NESARA, for
sure.

The likely gold shortfall is revealed in an article, The Mystery
of the Disappearing SDR Certificates", by GATA consultant James
Turk, posted at the GATA website -- www.GATA.org .

In his well researched article, James Turk reveals how by some
fancy figure-work, whereas no reduction is shown in the Treasury
Department's official gold reserve figures, the SDR certificates
on the books of the U.S. Treasury Department's Exchange
Stabilization Fund have dwindled from 9,200 millions to 2,200
millions between December 1998 and March this year.

An SDR is a monetary instrument issued by the International
Monetary Fund, IMF, representing a special drawing right for one
35th of an ounce of gold. James Turk shows by careful argument how
the 7,000 million 'paper gold' SDR certificates issued by the
Treasury Department since December 1998, are in all likelihood
backed by the official gold reserves, and represent a claim on the
reserves!

"James Turk has a Home Run," writes Bill Murphy, the chairperson
of GATA, in an e-mail received this afternoon. "It is now up to
Secretary O'Neill to explain what the draw down in SDR
Certificates is all about. It could not be more clear that it has
to have something to do with gold. It also could not be more clear
that the GATA camp has caught the U.S. Treasury deceiving the U.S.
Congress and the American public."

It is with this unfolding scandal on my mind, that I read today's
two e-mails in which NESARA is mentioned.

The first is from Larry Morningstar - mana7@aloha.net . Larry is
curious to know if I can throw light on an e-mail he had received,
which reads in part: "Congress has been told to activate NESARA,
but there are some who refuse to do so. This Act was enacted some
10 years ago, but was kept secret because of necessary
preparations . The Act re-instates the precious-metals banking -
ending the rule of the FED and it's Fractional banking system.
Treasury Banks are to be restored under the act. NOW at long last,
the time has come to broadcast this ACT and to urge Congress to
activate it."

My response to this is that it is made quite clear at the NESARA
website that the NESARA Act has not yet been passed into law or
been before Congress. So we have a mix here of possible truth --
perhaps members of Congress are being told to put NESARA on the
agenda -- and blatant disinformation.

The second e-mail in which NESARA is mentioned is in a letter from
Rayellen Allan, the publisher of www.Rumormillnews.com, dated 13
August. The letter was forwarded by Frans Ytterhoeven --
michiels@charline.be.

In her letter, Rayelan shares how two of her sources had called
her to tell her that "something important is about to happen." One
source went so far as to say that there will be a new election in
the US and that "3,000 elected officials will have to resign when
NESARA comes on line." She was also told that the NESARA posted at
www.nesara.org is not the Act that will be passed into law. She
was told, "It is similar! But substantially different".

Reyalan has been in the breaking news game for years and years.
Her sources are more often than not on the mark. One of the two
sources for this latest forewarning told her several months before
it was generally known that Hillary Clinton would run for the
Senate from New York.

Here Rayelan was told by both sources, whom she stresses do not
know each other, that "we are going to see big changes in banking
and governments around the world -- very soon!"

Rayellan writes further: "I think one of the Sources is with
Faction 3 -- this is a large group of 'civilians' who understand
what is going on with the NWO, New World Order, and who combined
their tremendous wealth in a 'metal' trust [include gold and
silver -- BW] back in 1983. It was one of the later 'metal' trusts
to be set up. These "metal" trusts were all set up with the same
aim --destroy the cash cow that supplies the NWO with its "magic
money machine" otherwise known as the Federal Reserve, World Bank
and IMF."

I naturally wonder whether this Faction 3 has been busy acquiring
SDR Certificates, for bringing to the Treasury Department for
redemption!

However, Rayelan is cautious about the information she has
received. " I told one Source that all of this was supposed to
have taken place in the summer of 1992! I was in on some of the
plans at that time!! Needless to say, it is 2001 and we still
have the IRS (Internal Revenue Service) and the Federal Reserve!"
As Rayelan writes, what she has been told should be breaking news
by now, or near enough now -- and isn't! Yet the way that the name
NESARA has come up from different sides, at the same time that
James Turk's exposure of Treasury Department malpractice is
causing a stir in Wall Street, causes me to give some credence to
what she has been told.

There will be many people ready to dismiss James Turk, Bill
Murphy, Reginald Howe, Reyalan and others, including myself, as
conspiracy theory kooks. By dismissing us in this way, they avoid
having to deal with the embarrassing evidence that is being
brought to light. There is a parallel here with the way in which
people who are active for social justice and human rights are
dismissed as communists, whose words and work need not therefore
be taken seriously.

I think most members of the MONEY MATTERS list are open to fringe
issues, so let me go further to share that I have been
anticipating something BIG to happen around now, since receiving
an e-mail from a friend Lyara -lyara@operationterra.com - on 9
August. In her e-mail, Lyara, reminded her list members that the
14th anniversary of "Harmonic Convergence" -- a major day in the
"Cultural Creatives" calendar -- is today, 17 August. Many people
around the world are now unifying in meditation for the "highest
good" for all. Lyara also wrote that she is expecting a major
extra-terrestrial event tomorrow, 18 August.

Before you dismiss me as being up the wall for drawing attention
to this, take a look at http://www.disclosureproject.org. There
you will read about a big gathering in New York recently where 20
top military and government officials gave clear evidence of
decades of contact with extraterrestrial civilizations and their
craft. From that evidence you will learn how and why ET "reversed
engineered technology" for solving the global warming crisis, the
energy crisis, pollution and many other urgent problems has been
suppressed. Again, there is a government-military-industrial-
banking cabal at work that does not want to give up its grip of
death on humanity and the earth.

So there you have it. I do not, in fact, expect anything
spectacular to happen today or tomorrow. But through this weekend,
you may be sure that news about the SDR paper gold scandal will be
spreading round the globe, along with references to NESARA as a
real option for cleaning up the mess.

In friendship,

Boudewijn Wegerif
Monetary Studies Programme **

___________________________

NATIONAL ECONOMIC STABILIZATION AND RECOVERY ACT -- posted at
www.nesara.org

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

MONETARY POLICY REFORM

� Establishes three types of United States currency: standard
silver coin, standard gold coin and treasury credit-notes

� The United States Treasury buys and cancels all outstanding
capital stock of the former Federal Reserve Banks

� The privately owned Federal Reserve System becomes a public
entity, the United States Treasury Reserve System

� A new Board of Governors of the Treasury Reserve System uses a
specific law-mandated plan to maintain and stabilize the exchange
value of the currency

� The new Board assumes all powers and responsibilities of the
former Federal Open Market Committee

� The existing regional Federal Reserve Banks become Treasury
Reserve Banks and continue clearinghouse operations and other bank
service functions under the direction of the Office of the
Comptroller of the Currency

� All commercial banks must exchange their income-producing
government obligations for treasury credit-notes

� Only treasury credit-notes may be held as bank reserves

� Fundamental changes are imposed on the repayment of all
outstanding fractional reserve loans on secured
property--principal must be repaid before the monetizing-fee is
paid

� A progressive federal excise tax is imposed on the privilege of
making commercial loans of currency for profit

� Commercial financial institutions such as credit unions are
provided, subject to some restriction, with opportunities to
operate with fractional reserves

FISCAL POLICY REFORM

� Amends the existing federal income tax system

� A national retail sales (excise) tax is imposed upon non-exempt
retail activities of commerce

� The Internal Revenue Service is reorganized as the National Tax
Service to administer the collection of the new tax

WHAT NESARA DOES NOT IMMEDIATELY DO

� Eliminate all payroll taxes, such as Social Security and
Medicare taxes

� Eliminate constitutional excise taxes on regulated activities

� Immediately eliminate the entire national debt

� Immediately halt inflation

___________________________

** Boudewijn Wegerif
Monetary Studies Programme
c/o FHSK Vardingeby, 150 21 Molnbo
Tel:+46.158.23035 -- e-mail 552.10327, till end September; thereafter
+46.552.21112

The Monetary Studies Programme prepares commentaries and study
material on the psychology and history of money. Through the Money
Matters mailing list, information is spread about monetary reform
and the growing movement for a positive economic future, freed
from debt oppression and money making for its own sake. The
programme is sponsored by the Adult Education Residential College,
Folkhogskola Vardingeby, south of Stockholm, and works closely
with the members' owned, interest-free bank JAK (www.jak.se).

Black Blade

(08/16/2001; 22:39:37 MDT - Msg ID: 59767)

Ames to cut 2,000 jobs, close stores

http://www.msnbc.com/news/614776.asp?0na=2126390
Retailer cites slowing economy behind cutbacks

Snippit:

ROCKY HILL, Conn., Aug. 16 - Ames Department Stores Inc. said Thursday it will close 47 stores, and lay off about 2,000 employees, or 6 percent of its workforce, marking the second time the discount chain has shut stores due to the slowing U.S. economy.

Black Blade: More Bones. And some Pin Head from Chase was on CNBC this morning saying that we have seen the "bottom." Hmmm�

BR549

(08/16/2001; 22:41:58 MDT - Msg ID: 59768)

So we lost a few Nukes--so what?

When the first nukes were detonated in the deserts many US Army troops were dispatched under orders to observe. Most of them are dead of cancer now. In desert storm, many of our troops have health problems related to serving their country, which initially were denied by the Pentagon. Many of their military health records myseteriously were lost.

We lose a few nukes, we lose a couple of billion FRN's that can't accounted for by the GAO, we lose a few top secret computers and guns from the FBI, we lose a few Los Alomos Nuke secrets, we lose the software for the guidance systems for launching nukes via Loral sharing satellite launching telemetry with the Chinese, we lose computer technology which is the only manufacturing technology that we have left, we lose R&D drug research technology via everyone else in the world being able to buy drugs cheaper than we can, we lose about 8,000 tonnes of gold, we lose most of the 87% of the SDR's which represents our nations gold ownership via treasury paper, we lose our morals and ethics, we lose�.........

No accountability, no responsibility, no falling on your sword like the Japanese leaders do when they are responsible for their entities failure that they had no direct involvement in.

Hey, we just lose things, OK? Maybe we are just losers to the rest of the world.

I'm going to bed before I lose it.

Solomon Weaver

(08/16/2001; 22:43:45 MDT - Msg ID: 59769)

Trail Marker

http://www.iht.com/articles/29483.htmlPoor old Solomon

Solomon Weaver

(08/16/2001; 23:07:52 MDT - Msg ID: 59770)

Live quotes

BILLYG (08/16/01; 20:27:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 59754)
Live Quote
First I love Kitco but is there some place on the net I can get live Gold Quotes. Some times it seems there are 30 to 50 minutes slow. Thanks in advance. BIllyG

-----------------

Hey Billy....welcome to the USA Gold Forum......beep beep vroom.....just watch your footing....

Last I heard, The honoured host of this forum, Mr. Kosares is happy to give you live quotes on gold...just decide if you want Eagles, or maybe some nice old Euro coins.

I can't believe it would take them more than 30 seconds to issue a quote....unless you are a big spender...don't think they allow margin though.

Join us and read deeply.....your brain cells will restructure with a touch from old King Midas.

Poor old Solomon

Solomon Weaver

(08/16/2001; 23:07:54 MDT - Msg ID: 59771)

Live quotes

BILLYG

(08/17/2001; 00:02:18 MDT - Msg ID: 59772)

beep beep vroom

"""" Hey Billy....welcome to the USA Gold Forum """""

Thank you, but been logging on every day for years. Hardly ever post messages, just like to read them because the message board has a very good software setup,well managed, and the posters are very knowledgeable.

""""" I can't believe it would take them more than 30 seconds to issue a quote....unless you are a big spender...don't think they allow margin though.""""""

I did not want to buy gold coins at this time. I am just a small player, and I hold a few gold stocks and a gold mutual fund(401k). I am just interested in getting current spot prices (off there live spot 24 hour gold chart-kitco.com) to get a feeling how my stocks will do. I own no gold coins and never have. It does interest me though, and I often look at the ones they sell here. If all goes well I would love to buy some in the fulture.

Thank you MR. Poor old SolomonView Yesterday's Discussion.

BR549

(08/17/2001; 02:07:13 MDT - Msg ID: 59773)

@ ORO--Hedging for fun and profit

ORO (msg#: 59570)

Due to some E-mail prodding by some, I read your most recent post. I admit that I haven't read your prior posts, so I am at a disadvantage I'm sure. However, I respectfully disagree with parts of the post that I did read.

Respectfully, let me tell you why.

Anytime that "risk" is hedged via IMF, BIS, LTCM, or FED, then the manipulation will ultimately fail as unfettered supply and demand ultimately emerges supreme in the future.

I have been maintaining for many moons that FRN's have been pegged by AG&C at an unofficial gold standard of approx/ $275/+-oz. (Coincidentally closed at $275.10 yesterday and IMHO temporarily headed lower)

Are Banksters able to hedge their bets much better in a stable U$ dollar environment? YOU BETCHA! Sure they can. Does anyone think that AG&C has been lowering interest rates for the benefit of the economy or the Sheeple. Who does he work for? The Banksters. Are we in an inflationary economy? No, it's deflationary with interest rate cutting justified by the FED masked by the fear that the Sheeple have of inflation.

IMF book valuations of SDR's are issued by the FED at a pegged value of $42/+ per oz. instead of the current market value of @275/(oz.+-). Why? Market value minus book value equals excess valuation.

In reference to currency pegs and your term "hedgies", I would offer that all current valuations of currencies and exchange rates are expressed in terms of manipulated FRN's and not in terms of fixed gold or other fixed basket indexes of current supply & demand of goods and services valuations. Calls and puts and other paper contracts are also expressed in terms of FRN's which are manipulated against the real value of gold and in favor of the manipulated paper. Taxes have no relevance in determining gold's true value. I disagree with your contention that "hedgies" are much more efficient than banksters in "allocating capital and have taken bank's best opportunities away from them on both the borrowing end and the lending end." Both entities base their bets on fluctuating dollars rather than the weight of stabilized PM's such as gold. From time to time hedgies greed gets them caught on the wrong wide of the equation.

Why did AG&C eliminate LTCM's risk by bailing them out?
Ans: Because banksters and hedgies are both manipulators, one is regulated for the Sheeples benefit and the other isn't. The real reason lies below.

Your statement that the banksters are trying to get rid of the hedge funds---Maybe in the manipulated PR under the table world. I maintain that many of these bankster hypocrites are the investors in hedge funds such as LTCM as individual participants, i.e., the Hedge funds ARE the BANKSTERS.

Why else would Greenspan bail out LTCM?

I'm a pickin�

Regards from Cornfield County

nickel62

(08/17/2001; 02:48:35 MDT - Msg ID: 59774)

Good piece for perspective on your government and how they act today!

Seal the next contract with America in gold

By: Tim Wood

Posted: 08/16/2001 01:00:00 PM | � Miningweb 1997-2001

PRINCETON, NJ -- Newt Gingrich's Contract with America was revolutionary but too timid. Federal and state governments in the US remain high above the laws they write and impose. It is especially apparent in the ongoing search for clear answers from the Fed, Treasury and Congress about the nation's gold reserves.
Gold aficionado James Turk is doing painstaking work to match discrepancies in the way America's gold holdings are reported and anomalies in the bullion market. It is at times arcane and impenetrable, but the thrust of his latest findings is that a startling evaporation of US Special Drawing Right certificates corresponds with unusual gold demand trends since 1995.

It is alleged the Exchange Stabilization Fund has swapped SDR certificates, collateralised by US gold holdings, with foreign central banks enabling them to place their physical gold holdings into the bullion market for immediate sale. The motive is to prevent the price of gold from rising and thereby peeling away the veneer of a strong dollar and all that is associated with it as numeraire.

Turk admits that much of his work is speculative; deliberately and necessarily so, because he cannot get official co-operation to verify it.

It is nearly impossible to comprehend that a bureaucracy appointed by elected representatives has such an obnoxious attitude to taxpayer resources entrusted to them. Compare the regulatory scrutiny that companies are subjected to on a quarterly basis with that afforded government accounting offices. Firms must perform Riverdance on the point of a pin to explain any and every accounting change to the SEC. But in this case the Treasury can modify critical terminology and brush off requests for clarification that Turk and others have lodged.

Evidently, another Contract with America is required, this time with rules mirrored precisely in the public and private sectors. It will never happen.

Cocky bureaucrats

Turk's frustration highlights the impossible job Reg Howe has undertaken to sue Greenspan et al in Federal Court. Indeed, I am more pessimistic than ever that anyone will ever isolate an absolute truth in this matter.

It would be rational to assume that the Fed and Treasury, tiring of these attacks and allegations, would invite a few Senators, Congressman and reporters (tim@theminingweb.com in case the idea finds favour) on a tour of the country's gold vaults. Then, over a light lunch, Alan Greenspan and Paul O'Neill could employ pointers and easels to present an idiot's guide to the system, explaining precisely how "deep storage gold" is different from "custodial gold", is different from "gold reserves", and why they don't mark gold reserves to market, and so on.

Just one day to put everyone's minds at rest. That would be the end of it. Lots of photo ops, self-satisfaction and we all go home content that Gata really did forget to take its Lithium. It will never happen.

The Fed and Treasury operate in the realm of the FBI and CIA. Elected representatives on related oversight committees are drawn into an enigmatic world and quickly concur that there is much the public does not need to know. The national interest, you know, and the very reason the ultra powerful ESF continues to exist.

So, in dealing with Turk and the other gold conspiracy sleuths, the Fed and Treasury face two impossible choices.

Even if they would prefer to be honest and get everything cleared up, to do so would invite endless campaigns on other issues. It is more prudent for them, having drawn an impressive veil across the money temples in the last 88 years, to leave things be.

If there is indeed a gold conspiracy then, like military "black ops", there is inevitably a point where the majority of the elite agree that the curtains must never be drawn aside because a greater good is at stake. The national interest is such a nebulous idea that it can be employed to defend anything � already has � no matter how reprehensible. Look no further than the rescue of Long Term Capital Management for a practical example of moral hazard turned financial harlotry.

Gold is no exception, and therein lies the rub. Turk actually exposes the likely legitimacy that money officials might invoke.

Gold is not money

Special Drawing Rights were created in 1968 when President Johnson was having a torrid time with the Europeans who vacuumed gold out of America because greenbacks had been debased by printing so many of them to pay for Vietnam and the Great Society.

The gold pool was closed, foreshadowing the closing of the gold window in 1971, and the International Monetary Fund created SDRs to substitute for gold, which was until then the primary unit of account among nations. SDRs were initially backed by a Group of Ten gold guarantee, but that was revoked when gold began to soar in response to the inflation unwittingly engineered by Presidents Nixon and Johnson.

When the US forced the world to move to a regime of floating currencies the IMF adopted the Second Amendment to its Articles of Agreement that had been under formulation since the late 1930s. The intention of the Second Amendment was to erase gold as money. The IMF and US Treasury backed up the change by selling a good deal of gold.

That is the defense the Fed and Treasury can invoke � as long ago as 1978 the IMF, backed by the global money power, agreed that gold should be displaced as a reserve asset. The fact that central banks never walked the talk is irrelevant; it was a policy and bureaucrats are obliged to act on policy whether they agree with it or not.

Maybe gold is money

There again, if this is the defence then there is little reason to be secretive and obstructive. Instead, the silence of the Fed and Treasury actually signals that they are deathly scared of gold precisely because it remains money and they appear not to have been treating it too well.

But that doesn't make them guilty of anything except extraordinary poor judgement. Greenspan and O'Neil are damned if they do and damned if they don't. But they probably remain untouchable, even if there is an apparent breach of the Constitution. That hardly stopped anyone before. God bless America.

Zenidea

(08/17/2001; 03:31:01 MDT - Msg ID: 59775)

Nukes

I read in a paper that 1 gram of U235 can give off a
force equivalent to the spontainious combustion of 2500
tons of coal and that a cruise missile has the capacity to
carry a payload of up to 125kg's of fissile material.
Gives news meaning to ( Stick em up !) oops ( lets see the colour of your money !) AU?

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/17/2001; 04:06:37 MDT - Msg ID: 59777)

SteveH - Missing?

Sir SteveH

Where have you been? Would like some input from you on this SDR - Gold swap - deep storage - coverup.

Very respectfully,

HBM

ps: I thought deep storage was appropriate for gold. My gold has been in deep storage for quite some time, along with certain defensive tools. (grin)

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/17/2001; 04:14:05 MDT - Msg ID: 59779)

Cavan Man @ # 59748

Cavan Man @ # 59748

Sir Cavan Man, you said: "�The A/FOA camp has been using the web to pull the US into such a deal (my opinion not MK's)�"

I see that you believe that A/FOA camp has an AGENDA. I strongly believe that FOA/TG has an agenda. I'm not sure where ANOTHER fits in here. ANOTHER has been a very a rather schizophrenic, mysterious entity with at least two different personalities and possibly three.

FOA/TG is very consistent. More interested in a propagandistic, one-sided, line than an open forum type search for the truth. He seems to think that his readers, lurkers are waiting with baited breath for his next unfolding revelation as to how things are. I for one am not fooled by his thin skin, his threats to take his toys and go home, etc.

His short burst in defense of his patriotism was so lacking in conviction that it made me nauseous. This guy does not have a nationalistic element in his bones. He works for someone. He may be in deep cover. He is transparent. He is in the "One World" camp and favors Europe without a doubt.

There is one thing, which is so glaringly clear that only the totally mesmerized would miss it. He favors the Euro, he welcomes it, and he wants it to happen. He is not interested in a gold standard or any other type of hard money standard. What he desires is a switch from one fiat system to another fiat system. What he desires is a switch in the location of the current hegemony. He is in favor of continued control of the world financial system by the same international bankers, which control it today. He loves fiat currency period.

If I am wrong, if he is not working for someone, if he is not working under cover, and if he really loves the USA, then he is a fool, IMO. I assume that we are allowed to have opinions, no?

Very respectfully,

HBM

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/17/2001; 04:20:15 MDT - Msg ID: 59780)

Overnight spot

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.htmlAt the moment, London spot is on the rise.

HBM

Hill Billy Mitchell

(08/17/2001; 04:26:28 MDT - Msg ID: 59781)

Dollar index - see link

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=d6&w=1&t=f&a=5USD shows no real bounce yet. I expect dollar intervention today or over the weekend. If not, look out below.

HBM

Zenidea

(08/17/2001; 04:36:38 MDT - Msg ID: 59782)

Quiz

I spotted a 2mm OD radioactive uranium pellet today (born in a reactor) that passes by a plastic tube that hence becomes encapsulated in an iridium cone type crucible of sorts after travel from a vessel and thus is finally encapsulated in a remove/replaceable hand held lead caseing to give direction to a beam. What kind of camera do you think it may be ?. And yes it is not one that needs silver and yes it is not digiital :)... Glue is the clue , no yes and no questions :).

Netking

(08/17/2001; 04:43:43 MDT - Msg ID: 59783)

HBM / Zen

http://www.forexdirectory.net/euro.htmlHill Billy Mitchell - The Euro contines to power away against the USD. I expect to see some old support levels (in lower graph in the link)breached in the days ahead as the Euro continues to revisit old ground.
------------------------------------------------------------Zenidea - A camera used by MI5/6 ?

Zenidea

(08/17/2001; 04:59:31 MDT - Msg ID: 59784)

Netking

Perhaps only God knows the ans to that one Netking . (smile) Broad/Discusive is your ans as the Q may be. nice try Netking but I am not sure what Mi 5/6 are up to you see . , Aristotle is the clue, suffice simpler will do. :)

Black Blade

(08/17/2001; 05:37:57 MDT - Msg ID: 59785)

Asian Markets Still Tanking

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
It looks like it wull be a race between the Nikkei and the Hang Seng to sub 10,000. Eurpean Markets look sickly as well. The US indices indicate that the NY open on Wall Street could get "Interesting."

Black Blade

(08/17/2001; 05:44:35 MDT - Msg ID: 59786)

Ford to Cut Jobs, Take Charges

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010817/business_autos_ford_dc_12.html
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:F - news) on Friday said it would cut 4,000 to 5,000 salaried positions by the end of the year and take one-time charges in the third and fourth quarters in an effort to streamline its business to become more competitive.

Black Blade: "Bone Pile" still growing higher. I guess that FORD does stand for "Found On Road Dead." Could be {Fix Or Repair Daily." Rumor is that Ford will have it's credit rating downgraded.

auspec

(08/17/2001; 06:06:11 MDT - Msg ID: 59787)

NUKES!

In abundance lately, buried or written.

Cavan Man

(08/17/2001; 06:40:27 MDT - Msg ID: 59788)

Hill Billy Mitchell

A/FOA/TGBill: I've been reading here for approximately thirty months and have followed all the A/FOA points and counter points. I have devoted much thought to their messages. I do see (as they do) the world's global monetary system evolving into something very different than what we all know and use today. I doubt that they are "spot on" but, I do not doubt that they are very close to accurately describing the end game. No one person knows nor can predict how all this mess will play out.

I've seen many posters over the past thirty months take rather rough shots at A/FOA. I think that is a shame and a dishonor to their time spent here. I think it is unproductive and unwise for people who disagee with what they have written to cloak themselves in rigid ideology, political philosophy and patriotism. What we are all trying to understand as PM advocates is "what the heck is going on out there" and these two (three, four, five, six?) posters have given many clues and indications that have been relatively accurate. Is TG/FOA "guessing" sometimes and analyzing events after the fact? I think sometimes, yes.

As a businessman and as a father I need to and will keep a very open mind. I need to protect my family through good times and bad. Thanks to TG/FOA and many, many others here and out there in web land, I beleive I have formulated a decent strategy both for investing and for economic survival. There is absolutely nothing I can do about the world at large; i.e., the greater world around me. Truth is, I try and divorce myself from it (the world) as much as possible. My world is my God, His Church and my family--in that order. The heck with the rest. There is nothing I can do to stop the world from turning and evolving inexorably into a condition I am very uncomfortable with.

My comments about the likely purpose of A/FOA spending four years on the www were only meant to pose a possible additional reason for their commentaries. If there is a strong and credible agenda out there challenging the USD and the US I am glad to know about it. I wish everyone good luck with their agendas. They are going to need it.

uponroof

(08/17/2001; 07:06:28 MDT - Msg ID: 59789)

Bush to roll back Clinton Gold Mining Laws?

http://www.nytimes.com/2001/08/16/politics/16MINI.html?ex=998625600&en=a0955d4dce9f2fd8&ei=5040Good morning,

Well, given the increase in South African mining labor from the recent strike threat, and this apparent soon to be loosening of Nevada's environmental restrictions, the gap between American and South African mining may be closing somewhat. South African golds have always out performed North American golds in every major bull run. But, considering South Africa's dramatic ongoing societal evolution, which includes countrywide medical/health concerns, North American mining is looking better and better. Probably still not as profitable, but gaining in overall value given all considerations.

Gandalf the White

(08/17/2001; 07:47:12 MDT - Msg ID: 59790)

Jump SPOT, JUMP !

The only positive Indexes on the NY are the GOLDS !
<;-)

escapethematrix

(08/17/2001; 07:51:17 MDT - Msg ID: 59791)

U.S. Trade Deficit Widened to $29.4 Billion in June

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AO30bnhN3VS5TLiBUSnippet:

Washington, Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade deficit widened in June as a slower global economy pushed exports to the lowest level in 16 months. Imports fell for a third straight month, as companies spent less on fuel, machinery and equipment. The gap in goods and services trade grew to $29.4 billion in June from $28.5 billion in May, the Commerce Department said.

To put it as simply as possible......Unsustainable.

USAGOLD

(08/17/2001; 08:40:30 MDT - Msg ID: 59792)

Today's Market Report: Confusion over Government Market Reports

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.htmlNote: If you would like to receive an information packet on gold (how to buy it -- our products and services) and a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views, please go to the link above. For those seeking a higher level of understanding with respect to the gold market, many of the concepts addressed briefly below are covered in detail in our upcoming 32-page Quarterly Review. Please go to the link above to register for your packet.

In Brief: Gold pulled steadily to higher
ground as the stock market and dollar
continued to languish and a spate of
government reports threw the markets into
confusion.

The June U.S. balance of payments numbers
-- a negative $29.4 billion despite a drop in
both imports and exports -- suggests that the
global slowdown has done little to subdue
the trade deficit at the heart of the dollar
woes. At the same time, yesterday's inflation
numbers -- down .3% -- defy the real life
experience of most Americans who see the
purchasing power of their pay checks and
savings dwindling ever faster even as
government economists tell them that there's
no inflation.

A report in the Rocky Mountain News on
local Colorado inflation (headlined "Denver
Area Gets Inflation Jolt") tells a completely
different story from the one the government
is relating. The Denver Consumer Price
Index is up 5.4% for the first half of the year
-- that would translate to 10.8% annualized.
One wonders about the real rate of inflation
in other American communities. The day
before yesterday gasoline prices -- which the
federal government credits with driving
down the overall inflation rate -- were up
15� in the past week. Few believe the
government numbers.

The bottom line is that the government
propagandists are looking for a good excuse
to lower interest rates (as if they need one),
and a subdued inflation rate provides ample
justification. In contrast, the European press
is emphasizing a rising inflation rate to
justify raising rates. What's being attempted
is fairly transparent: Both sides of the pond
are interested in a lower dollar (even as the
Bush administration pleads the opposite) and
the most facile way to get it is to drive rates
down in the U.S. and rates up in Europe and
channel the hot capital flow toward Europe.

That will be good for gold as well as we are
seeing by today's up trend. We continue to
recommend that if you are contemplating a
gold purchase not to wait. Things could get
dicey pricewise in a hurry. In a conversation
with top gold analyst James Turk the other
day, he told me that he is sticking with his
prediction that gold will hit the $380 mark by
year end -- that's $380 not $280. Though we
cannot say that the dollar/euro scenario just
outlined is what we are witnessing with
absolute certainty, we can say that there has
been a decided shift in market sentiment
since the Genoa conference. Gold buying at
Centennial Precious Metals/USAGOLD has
picked up markedly over the past week or so
-- as we now emerge, my fellow
goldmeisters, from the summer doldrums.

That's it for today. See you back here in a
few days. MK

I would like to invite anyone who has an
interest in gold to go to the link immediately
above and register for an information packet.
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Tree in the Forest

(08/17/2001; 08:59:05 MDT - Msg ID: 59793)

HBM

Thank you for the link. I sent Ross the chart and hopefully he will be able to get it up. I'll post the link to it as soon as he does.

Tree in the Forest

(08/17/2001; 09:24:45 MDT - Msg ID: 59794)

AEL's post #59766 at 22:07:19 yesterday 8/16

AEL I take your post VERY seriously and I think everyone here should keep an open mind and re-read it carefully. I think it contains much truth. It doesn't sound bizarre to me at all though I can see how it might to some. This all goes back to the re-post of The Commercial Credit System on 4/22/01 #52341 (thank you Yukon). I think we are going to see the demise of the private money system. (The Eurocrats won't like this!) Maybe not tomorrow but soon. Greenspan's announcement of his impending retirement makes sense in this context. The events of the next few years will change the course of history. This planet will never be the same. It will affect every aspect of our lives. I believe it is coming.

"David Bowman: You see, something's going to happen...
Dr. Heywood Floyd: What? What's gonna happen?
David Bowman: Something wonderful."

slingshot

(08/17/2001; 09:29:46 MDT - Msg ID: 59795)

Spot

JUMP SPOT JUMP!
$277.80 Love to see $280.00 broken. DOW down 122
Nasdaq Down 48
Slingshot

site steward

(08/17/2001; 09:34:02 MDT - Msg ID: 59796)

Market trade in overnight funds indicates adequate liquidity, yet Fed adds

Interbank dealings in overnight funds were below the FOMC target (3.69 vs. 3.75%). However, the System Manager at the Trading Desk of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York gave the go-ahead for a temporary injection of $2.25 billion to banking reserves using weekend RPs.

The Treasury Department may talk of a "strong dollar" policy, but the Fed actions speak louder than words -- to the contrary. Are you "listening"?

Today, among others, is a good day to buy gold.

R.

Sojourner

(08/17/2001; 09:39:51 MDT - Msg ID: 59797)

Gov't Ownership

President Frankln Roosevelt wrote in 1933, "The real truth of the matter is, as you and I know, that a financial element in the large centers has owned the governmant ever since the days of Andrew Jackson."
Was he saying that money (the people who own it) is power? And that we "everyday" people really have no say in our government? The money people even control the Federal Reserve? In other words, our politicians-president on down-are puppets for the money-powered?

VanRip

(08/17/2001; 10:15:25 MDT - Msg ID: 59798)

Black Blade's Bone Pile

BB, Add these to the pile. Levy should be able to carry this out without too much hassle, since administrative staff is not unionized, if I remember correctly. Claims it will save 300 million bucks. Couldn't do it to teachers even if he wanted to. Union too strong. (From yesterday's New York Times)

"Schools Chancellor Harold O. Levy announced a sweeping reorganization of the Board of Education staff yesterday, a plan that would eliminate more than 1,500 administrative jobs over three years and give far more autonomy to local school superintendents to make their own decisions about how to spend their money.

Mr. Levy, who was appointed chancellor last year because of the experience he brought as a manager in the banking industry, said that a cut of 1,226 jobs, or 39 percent, in the administrative staff at board headquarters over three years would be the single largest percentage reduction in the board's history.

As recently as 1994, the board's central administration had 5,407 employees; after the new reductions are completed, that number will drop below 2,000, he said. In addition, 300 administrative jobs are to be eliminated at community school district headquarters, including those of some administrators who will be moved back into the classroom as teachers."

(snip)

slingshot

(08/17/2001; 10:15:47 MDT - Msg ID: 59799)

Christmas in August?

Want an indication on how well the economy is?

Christmas items on the shelves in some stores.
Slingshot

The Hoople

(08/17/2001; 10:17:44 MDT - Msg ID: 59800)

Tree in the Forest

Speaking of Dave Bowman, Hal was moved from Urbana,IL to a posh boardroom in the Federal Reserve Building in New York. The "H" was dropped and he is now the AL 2000. We still need to unplug him or he will destroy our ship. "Daisy, daisy, give me your answer true".

SteveH

(08/17/2001; 10:28:19 MDT - Msg ID: 59801)

HBM

SDRs.

Clearly something is afoot. What that is seems to me political pressure on the Fed and Treasury to pull back and away from any swap of anykind. GATA is putting sufficient pressure on them that they may be forced to disavow knowledge, aka find a scapegoat. If indeed the SDR certificate sell-off of US owned gold is true, which seems plausible, then we must of course ask to whom were they sold and for what reason and under what authority.

Should it be discovered that it was inappropriate and outside the boundries of US law then someone will hang. It is all very confusing, however, so until this becomes a simpler matter for the press and then the people, many watch and wait for further exposure.

My business partner says he doesn't care about gold even after being nearly nailed to the wall to consider the ramifications. He is smart; he is brainwashed to believe that the dollar is king and gold doesn't matter. If you want to see gold matter, set the price free and bring on some investment interest and devalue the dollar in the form of general consumer inflation (not deflation) and all will change.

Apparently the folks in charge of this paper gold fiasco, which would appear to be the ESF and the NY Fed and the Bank of England and Deutsche Bank, thought the prospect of having had to manipulate the gold market and secretly trade in each others SDRS, was important enough to risk their reputations and their careers for. I wonder what they are scared of? Makes you wonder, eh?

slingshot

(08/17/2001; 10:51:02 MDT - Msg ID: 59802)

Gold

Spot $280.00. On its way to $285.00? I would enjoy a close at $280.00 and everything else is gravy. Waiting fo N.Y. to close and the shackles on gold to be broken. The heck with the Fat Lady, I'm starting to sing.

ZOOM, ZOOM, ZOOM,
HEH YEA!
Slingshot

Max Rabbitz

(08/17/2001; 10:56:34 MDT - Msg ID: 59803)

More Propaganda!

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AO30gxhX.RWNvbm9tNew CRB Index to drop gold....just in time!

"The failure of the CRB to reduce the influence agricultural markets on the index has prompted the New York Board of Trade to announce plans to scrap CRB index futures in favor of a new commodity index produced by Standard & Poor's that's weighted toward energy markets.

Energy contracts will make up 44.4 percent of the new S&P Commodity Index, compared with about 18 percent on the CRB.

The new index does not include gold. Historically, the precious metal would rally when inflation or recession threatened other markets. It rarely reacts that way now."

lamprey_65

(08/17/2001; 11:08:48 MDT - Msg ID: 59804)

Max

Can there be a better indicator that gold is about to move MUCH higher!? Funny thing is I agree with taking gold out of the CRB, but for a different reason...

Gold is not as much a commodity as it is -- dare I say it...

MONEY!

Old Yeller

(08/17/2001; 11:41:20 MDT - Msg ID: 59805)

Swirling rumor time

http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-perl/bbs.pl?read=171440
Latest update from Bill Murphy.

Mr Gresham

(08/17/2001; 11:47:00 MDT - Msg ID: 59806)

Old Yeller

Thanks for the instant news link to BF. (They're full of gold commentary today.) Ain't the net wonderful! I get in so sparsely now, it's great to have others putting it there to find when I do. Jump, Spot!

slingshot

(08/17/2001; 12:08:13 MDT - Msg ID: 59807)

Goldbug Songs

Here Comes the Sun. For gold
Maxwell's Silver Hammer. You guessed it.
Slingshot

sector

(08/17/2001; 12:24:17 MDT - Msg ID: 59808)

@SteveH About the SDRs and the ESF (US) Gold Account

It is quite simple. The SDRs ARE the gold. So when the SDRs have been sold as the Fed's H.4.1 report stipulates, the gold has been sold...all 87% of it.

One needs to carefully examine the linked .pdf documents from Turk's piece. Then it is extremely simple.

In the IMF Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual at Section #123 page 37 one finds that "SDR holdings represent unconditional rights to obtain foreign exchange OR THE RESERVE ASSETS OF OTHER IMF MEMBERS." Along with Turk's observation that "Monetray gold and SDR's isued by the IMF are financial assets without corresponding liabilities." we have a clear proof that SDRs are claims on gold.

Therefore the ESF's gold account is depleted by 87%. Get used to it. Plan accordingly. The cabal has no more ammunition. It is true.

As the person who first brought to light the West Point 58 million ounces of transferred "custodial" gold, I am not at all surprised by the news that 87% of the US gold is encumbered.

site steward

(08/17/2001; 12:52:48 MDT - Msg ID: 59809)

Highgrading the data

I can recall a telephone conversation I had with MK a little over two weeks ago in which we discussed extensively the Certificate accounts at the Fed as they relate to America's primary reserve assets as held by the Treasury.

Aside from the mechanics of the monetization of these assets via the certificates (and how changes in market value of the assets could play out), the primary item I stressed with MK was that a drawdown in the Fed's Certificate accounts (to unencumber the underlying assets) would be the easiest thing a person could watch for as a tip-off, in theory, that the government was preparing for a SERIOUS international defense of the dollar. Yet, after telling MK how easy it would be to keep an eye on these numbers, not once did I take a look at the present or near-historical values. Frankly, I simply didn't expect to see anything developing quite THIS SOON; and I was busy with other activities. A look at the numbers could wait. Or so I thought.

I was probably more surprised than anyone when I saw the excellent summary table that James Turk assembled, pointing out the decline in SDR Certificates that has already been occurring over the last two years.

As I see it, if the point is reached where the dollar must be defended *in earnest* on the international scene (a task which falls to the Treasury, not the Fed, though it uses the Fed as its agent), then any attempt to use U.S. Treasury bills, notes, and bonds for that purpose would be like fending off a grease fire with more grease. In times such as that, only primary international reserve assets (i.e., gold and SDRs) will be up to the task. And in the spirit of "Gresham's Law", for any two assets of equal market value today, a nation would want to use up the more dubious asset first, saving back the asset that will likely be the stronger of the two in future days. Thus, it makes perfect sense that the SDRs are the first primary asset to be made ready for action, unencumbered through withdrawals from the Fed's SDR Certificate account.

I shouldn't use the privilege of this posting code to express my personal view here, but I feel the following is warranted by its importance. As I see this, PERSONALLY speaking only, the significance to be seen in this drawdown activity as keenly noticed by Mr. Turk (a BIG thanks, James!) is that this action corresponds with what WOULD be expected in preparation for a SERIOUS defense of the currency. "The troops are being mobilized," so to speak. Ignore this element at your peril.

Granted, the market value of the Treasury's SDR holdings is equivalent only to ten billion dollars and nothing more -- not much to make a difference in sopping up the vast international overhang of dollar reserves; however, any weakening of the dollar exchange rate will translate into greater "purchasing power" of the SDRs to absorb a greater amount dollars. At any rate, it would be a START. This is significant.

Gold is THE primary asset, the big gun in any such serious international currency defense as may be looming in our future. We must remember that SDRs are only paper, and only have value according to the international rules of the game as bodged together through the IMF. Gold answers to a more fundamental and lasting power, and can rise to any necessary price to accomplish the job at hand. As I, personally, see it, he drawdown of the SDR Certificate Account serves as an advance warning that serious events are at hand. Any subsequent unencumbering of our gold reserves (via a similar withdrawal from the Gold Certificate Account at the Fed) would be a signal of utmost significance.

In reference to my subject line of "highgrading", this is what I had in mind. As I see it, this is the one passage from James Turk's article that everyone should read with an eye toward full comprehension of the possible implications as I've tried to share with you above.

------- "Why are the SDR Certificates declining? The basic answer is quite simple. The SDR Certificates MUST BE reduced if the ESF intends to use its SDR's for any purpose, such as market intervention or swaps. In other words, the SDR Certificates are a claim against the SDR's, so the SDR Certificate must be cancelled to remove any claims on the SDR before the SDR can be used by the ESF." --J.Turk -----

I hope this is helpful to someone, anyone out there. If not, I offer apologies in advance.

Randy

slingshot

(08/17/2001; 13:04:14 MDT - Msg ID: 59810)

What a Day!

Gold to $280.20, then a slight pullback to $ 279.10

Getting out of New York is like rounding the corner on the Monopoly game. Park Place and Boardwalk have Hotels on them and you have to roll the dice.
Who says Gold is Dead! Looking forward to the days ahead.
Off to the woods. You all have a great weekend.
Keep on singing.
Slingshot

SteveH

(08/17/2001; 13:59:40 MDT - Msg ID: 59811)

Smoke and fire

Sector,

If the US has encumbered its gold to such an extent, there must be other major players that have done the same. Europe?

Who has bought the rights? Who are the buyers of this gold? China?

SteveH

(08/17/2001; 14:13:03 MDT - Msg ID: 59812)

Tape got painted at close

The DOW was down at 200 - at 15:30. At close it was brought higher (pattern?).

USAGOLD

(08/17/2001; 14:20:31 MDT - Msg ID: 59813)

Steve H. . .

You ask a couple good questions, Steve.

Where did all that gold go?

Secondly, as I understand the flow of these SDR Certificates, it is the European central banks (the Bundesbank being the most commonly mentioned participant) that ended up with them in a swap arrangement for THEIR gold. So they aren't encumbering, they've been relieved of a barbarous relic that pays no interest and accrues storage costs.

All to help good ole Uncle Sam??

Why would Europe take such a risk after the 1971 dollar default? Aren't they setting themselves up for a similar default through this swap arrangement? On top of it, why would they take such a risk when they are trying to buttress the reputation of their own currency by making gold a critical reserve component? Wouldn't that add up to jeopardizing their gold reserves at such a critical time in order to help out the United States? If the U.S. encumbered 87% of its reserve as is sugested that amounts to 7000 tonnes of gold, or nearly 60% of Europe's reserves. That's a big figure.

I always go back to simple business (trading) principles when this sort of thing is being discussed. Who is doing what to whom? And why are they doing it? If it doesn't add up, go back and check the premises.

If I am wrong about this, I'm sure I'll hear about it. As always, my views are not etched in stone. If someone can explain to me why Europe would put itself in such a position, I'm all ears.

By the way, Steve, the questions above are all rhetorical for anyone who would like to take a stab at them, not at you. Your post prompted this post.

MK

CoBra(too)

(08/17/2001; 14:22:02 MDT - Msg ID: 59814)

SDR's vs SDR Certificates? Randy & sector, please

please help me out - I don't seem to get it.

SDR's originally were pegged against a fixed price of gold and came about 1968 as the IMF was set up as the lender of the last resort.
Even after Nixon closed the gold window in 1971 - SDR's were still pegged to a fixed POG. To my understanding it was the Jamaica Accord that cut nall ties to any Pog pegging and even outlawed it, since no currency was allowed to have any relation to POG. Instead a currency basket was construed to take the lead - the lead to what? - and since the world has been indoctrinated to accept the relative performance of its respective economies to price its respective currencies.
Well, considering it all, there seems to be a real shortfall in the valuation of the US$ - as the only reality to value the $ above all other currency, would be a positive current account vis a vis an ever accruing deficit.

As I have to admit, I'm not an economist, but what I'm seeing is akin to a communist central planned extortion of pretence of being the only Super-Power left allowing this kind of monetary, power - distortion. Reminding me of the Sci-Fi Empire - former colony - fighting back.

Yet, I still don't get it! As the SDR was calculated vs another fiat currency basket -and the IMF even outlawed gold - how can a US government agency just forgo this binding article and swap or, better create an intermediary forgery like the SDR Certificate?

Oh yes, I may know, though I would like to hear an official explanation. If only to nail the bastards, but that may be wishful thinking.

Anyway, seems the PPT was pre-occuppied on another side and let the POG a little more free. We'll see if this is the real one - ... remains to see.

What say's you - to rambling cb2

sector

(08/17/2001; 14:26:38 MDT - Msg ID: 59815)

@site Steward

The Sale of SDRs is the sale of Gold...Gibson's Phenomenon...so the SDRs cannot be subsequently used for a currency defense.

The logical purpose for the SDR sales has been to suppress the price of gold since the published quarterly ESF losses match the SDR draw down patterns.

There is nothing left, (save 2,200million SDRs) to defend the currency with...or to keep suppressing pog.

Moreover, Howe's latest essay about Summer's Gibson's Phenomenon 1988 article further damns three Administrations in what now can be seen as a grand scheme to manipulate gold, the general price level (inflation) and interest rates. Indeed, Gibson's paradox states that under a fixed gold regime, prices are stable. This means interest rates are also stable. Thus, interest rate derivatives can be safely added. All would be a "Goldilocks Economy" if only the price of gold could somehow be controlled.

Summers said it best in the article "Determination of the general price level then amounts to the microeconomic problem of determining the relative price of gold.

In the early eighties he and his Fed friends set out to do just that---control the price of gold. Timid at first...then in the Clinton years...on steroids. Along the way the BIS assumed a $64 Trillion dollar interest rate derivative position along side JPMorgan Chase's $17.7 Trillion position. They knew about Gibson's phenomenon...the fix was in.

This scheme is far larger that anyone could have imagined only a month ago. The Summer's article cements it all together. The final piece of the puzzle. The overarching motive for the souless economic genocide aimed at the hapless gold producing nations.

The Trustees of Harvard need to ask themselves the following question:

If it were true that Lawrence Summers hatched a scheme to manipulate free markets, cause employees to make false statements about it, and further enslave third world gold producing nations, would you still appoint him as Chancellor?

Tonight will see more from the Harvard Crimson about the esteemed Professor Summers.

Netking

(08/17/2001; 14:50:43 MDT - Msg ID: 59816)

Japanese banks seek to hide derivatives losses (with official help!)

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT388Z8SHQC&live=true&tagid=ZZZC19QUA0C⊂heading=asia%20pacificSnippit:
"Japan's banks are seeking to avoid revealing potential losses on their derivative portfolios by lobbying regulatory authorities to postpone legislation that forces them to disclose the true market value of their positions.(Called either "creative accounting" or "fraud" depending on whether the Govt says "it's OK!". - Netking)

The financial strength of the banks - which hold massive securities portfolios - has already been undermined by weakness in the stockmarket, and it is feared disclosing derivative losses will further undermine confidence in the system.

The Japanese Bankers Association, the industry's most senior representative body, has sent a letter "recommending" the delay to the Japan Institute of Certified Public Accountants, the body in charge of formulating the disclosure rules.

"The last thing banks need right now is to deal with the potential additional losses stemming from the inaccuracies of their derivative hedges," Nomura Securities said in a newly-released research note . . . "
(The longer they delay disclosure, the heavier will be the weight upon the "house of cards" - Netking)

Canuck

(08/17/2001; 15:23:19 MDT - Msg ID: 59817)

EERIE, EERIE STUFF

This is not bullsnot.

I'm putting in a new phone system today in Ottawa for the Canadian Association of .............. I cannot name names, it would not be prudent.

During the 'pre-cut' my partner and I are distributing the new phones to each cubicle and office and I turn the corner to go into another office and the nameplate on the door.....
is............JAMES TURK.

I swear on my fathers grave.

I stood 'mind-blank' for at least 2 or 3 seconds, carried on and said to myself, "What the hell is that all about?"

Anyway.....great day, awesome day, the shorts are sweating, profusely.

A buddy is coming over (the dude searching for earth), I'm sure a drink or 7 will be had. I have my boat fixed up, dropped $100 in tackle at Wally World yesterday (Wal-Mart) and am ready for the elusive great white (lake trout that is). What the hell, may run into JAMES TURK on the lake for crying out loud. Have the downriggers set, the 'fishfinder' was tested in the bathtub last night (didn't get any) and I am out of this smog infested city at daybreak.

To all; have a stellar week-end, I'll be back Sunday, grizzly and hungover to watch gold skyrocket.

Canuck.

Leigh

(08/17/2001; 15:27:21 MDT - Msg ID: 59818)

Canuck - James Turk Sign

That was a signal for you to buy more gold this weekend.

BR549

(08/17/2001; 15:28:01 MDT - Msg ID: 59819)

SDR's

USAGOLD (msg#: 59813)

So German banks transfer physical gold (deliver it?) to the US in exchange for SDR Certificates.

If I understand Turk, these SDR Certificates represent claims against SDR's, SDR's represent claims against Gold Certificates, and Gold Certificates represent claims against US physical gold?

So if I have this correct, and believe me I am very unsure, then why have the stat's the Fed reports for storage remained constant? I can see why the SDR Certificates are being reduced. Maybe the U$ is using German gold to "bust" the POG or settle balance of payments? Also it is claimed the pre-1973 SDR's represent claims against physical and post-73 do not.

Where is the physical gold now? And I agree with you, why indeed would any bank trade physical for paper? (storage costs can't be that much)

BR549

(08/17/2001; 16:10:24 MDT - Msg ID: 59820)

Histr'y Channel on Gold

http://www.historychannel.com/gold/frame.htmlI know that there have been some posts regarding the History Channel's upcoming series on Gold. The "Teacher's Guide" to this series has some interesting questions for the new student of gold to ponder-

What is a congressional fiat?
How does barter work?
Why did gold emerge as the preferred form of currency?
Gold emerged as the universal currency of wealth and power.

Let's don't write this one off yet. Even if you don't like homework assignment, there are some interesting WEB links. The pictures will have you salivating.

The history of the metal, especially involving the development of value-based currencies should be interesting.

Matt

(08/17/2001; 16:19:13 MDT - Msg ID: 59821)

Gold value--

Please pardon my significant ignorance of international financial dealings, but is it possible that the U.S. is using the German gold based on its "mark to market" value with respect to SDR Certificate transactions for bookkeeping purposes, and not involving the $42+/oz valued
U.S. gold except as collateral.

CoBra(too)

(08/17/2001; 16:41:02 MDT - Msg ID: 59822)

And that may be the eternal Question - @ Br549

... Where is the GOLD?

As it begs the question - what gold - and does the USA have some (unencumbered gold left) - after all it cost 9.000 tons in 68 to 71 and probably another 7.000 tons in the late 70's to (mis-)allocate the only reality of $-curreny reserves ...

Roughly, 8.350 tons of au have been left after these schemes to perpetuate the degradation of gold, no surprise the $-faction called in all mental "debts" in order stem the tide, of being akin to no gold that we hold, in Ft. Knox or or any other dumpin' (aka depositary).

Oh yeah, physically it may be there. It just went from a wholly owned Reserve, to custodial and then to "deep storage" and the FED/ESF/TSY stooges come up with the great explanation - it's only an accounting term. - as we can be sure the manuals would state this to be correct ... or is it corrupt?

After all, we've got gov. agencies looking after us small participants in free markets, that oversee, fair trading like the FTC and the SEC ... be free, sleep well and go to hell, as we need you to buy or sell, according to our needs - which, of course are are always synchronized to the prevailing political malaise.

Fellow serfs of the monetized idiosyncracy of the PTB rise to shake off the shackles of the socialistic community - as the only unity is your own individual - freedom.

Sorry, got my rambling hour - cb2

PS: Still can't differentiate between SDR and Cert's - too bad - though I'll be prepared to swap both back to la meme' chose!

site steward

(08/17/2001; 17:00:22 MDT - Msg ID: 59823)

CoBra: "Still can't differentiate between SDR and Cert's..."

I'll try to lend a helping hand. Just a moment or two of typing required...

R.

BR549

(08/17/2001; 17:09:05 MDT - Msg ID: 59824)

SDR's and the German's Gold

CoBra(too) (msg#: 59822)

Sorry, I over on the History Channel site taking an internet tour of the forty-niner Gold Rush at the Oakland Museum of Art. Great Reading with many links. Required reading for coin collector/dealer's.

From my notes on Turk I made up a scenarios about Wigenomics. Without the "cuteness"�

Fed can't sell physical gold

Fed took inventory of U$ gold and issued gold certificates that represented physical inventory

Gold Certificates given/pledged/sold to the IMF

IMF issues SDR's

SDR's transferred to ESF

ESF store then issued SDR certificates back to Fed where books would balance

Fed are not allowed to sell treasury gold directly, but there is no problem with Fed selling SDR certificates.

Gold storage inventory remains constant while SDR Certificates have declined from 9,200 down to 2,200

Problem is that SDR Certificates represents right to claim ownership of physical gold

His conclusion--87% of gold stored has been sold via these Certificates

Re: Since the FED cannot sell treasury gold, that would be ILLEGAL and you know how honest they are. However, the Fed could trade SDR Certificates to German's and sell the German's gold.

Again, I need help here. WHERE IS THE GOLD they got from the Germans?

Chris Powell

(08/17/2001; 17:10:39 MDT - Msg ID: 59825)

Where IS the gold?

It might help my friends engaged in the
discussion over SDR Certificates to know
that GATA has correspondence from the
Bundesbank in which it refuses to say
where the German gold reserves are kept.
Could be in the country, could be
outside. I imagine that the gold in the
U.S. government depositories is "owned"
by the United States, in the same sense
that a house worth $100,000 and mortgaged
for $500,000 is "owned" by the mortgagee.
That is, the German gold and other
European national gold reserves have been
sold or leased in exchange for paper claims
on the U.S. reserves. This way everyone
can pretend to have his gold. Problem is,
everyone's claims add up to more gold than
there is.

Sierra Madre

(08/17/2001; 17:23:36 MDT - Msg ID: 59826)

I am very confused with this SDR certificate thing!

I don't see how Mr. Turk can say that the holdings of SDR certificates that the US has allegedly swapped for foreign gold to dump on the market, can imply a potential "encumbering" of the gold reserve of the US.

I can see that SDR certificates can be swapped for gold, yes.

But the potential liability of the ESF Exchange Stabilization Fund is limited to handing over the SDRs themselves, if the SDR certificates must be redeemed. That's the end of the liability. Where does the obligation to hand over US reserves of gold come into the picture?

The definition of SDRs states that they are an asset with no corresponding liability - in other words, when you hand over the SDR, you have handed over a "make believe gold", and that's it.

We have to have some clarifications here.

Otherwise, I can't buy Turk's theory, much as I would like to have him discover the great secret of the gold suppression scheme.

Confused Sierra

Cavan Man

(08/17/2001; 17:52:52 MDT - Msg ID: 59827)

Chris Powell

I cannot believe that European bankers would part with their metal in exchange for US paper. If true, the Euro is a sham (doubtful). Further, these same bankers that signed the Washington Agreement will have completely broken with historical precedent on the Continent. Let's see; it is assumed that the general affinity of European bankers for gold is in direct correlation to the currency problems experienced throughout European monetary history. You are implying that the EURO would be introduced not only into a context of monetary jeopardy sans gold and at a point in time where the USD/IMF hegemony post Bretton Woods looks increasingly, shall we say, rickety?? Sorry, I am a GATA supporter of small means and dumb as a fence post but what you suggest defies common sense (and history). Respectfully....CM

Cavan Man

(08/17/2001; 17:56:45 MDT - Msg ID: 59828)

Chris Powell

Chris, why should the Bundesbank tell you anything? Also, why would European banks put their gold into the hands of a sovereign power that has established precedent in defaulting on international gold obligations. Sorry, I cannot buy it. IMHO......kind regards.......CM

BR549

(08/17/2001; 18:06:43 MDT - Msg ID: 59829)

Gold vs. Silver argument has been going on a long time

Snippet: Gold Or Silver?

The Greeks to the west of Ionia believed that silver should be the main metal used for coins. Following this there have, for most of history, been regions which favoured silver and other nations which favoured gold as their main coinage and currency metal. Where the two existed side by side, then gold was usually considered the more important. In most cases, ready availability of one metal rather than the other exerted a practical influence over the choice.

The Romans
The early Roman Republic issued few coins in gold, their main coinage being in silver, with bronze or copper for small change. From the death of Julius Caesar, gold coinage came to be an important part of the Roman coinage system. The Romans took a very practical view in exploiting natural resources in the areas of their conquest, and issued coins in gold, silver, and copper according to the resources of the region.

Anybody got a Lydia 643 BC?

I think there is a boat missing.

BR549

(08/17/2001; 18:29:21 MDT - Msg ID: 59830)

The Real quesiton--Why were SDR's and SDR Cert's Invented?

SDR's cannot be swapped for anything. That would be illegal. Only SDR Certificates can.

Until we identify where the German gold is physically, then I agree that I also have some problems with Mr. Turk's theory. I agree however, that may have swapped their gold to the U.S. and The German's may still have their gold (physically) similar to the way the U.S. has still got it's gold (physically) The German's may have taken U.S. paper so the U.S. could remain "legal". And therefore the analogy of having gold but you owe a mortgage on it is viable. I mean it's all paper isn't it?

Mr. Turk's theory does inspire you to think that the deviousness of such an elaborate paper accounting scheme may be possible. Why would the U$ Fed/Treasury issue gold certificates? SDR's? SDR Certificates? For one reason---the power to circumvent the legalities of pegging the greenback at $275/oz. or other equally devious acts.

Why are these instruments needed? To confuse Congress and help the banksters. That's my bet. And I agree it needs clarification and additional research. The GATA police need our help.

Chris Powell

(08/17/2001; 18:44:43 MDT - Msg ID: 59831)

Where IS the German gold?

C.M., you may be right that the Bundesbank
doesn't have to tell GATA anything. But
GATA didn't ask about the location of the
German national gold; a German citizen did.
He was told, in effect, to drop dead, and
he forwarded the correspondence to us. Now
he's trying to get the attention of his
representative in the Bundestag. Maybe
GATA should offer a cash prize to anyone
who can positively locate the German gold!

As for the incredibility of the suggestion
that the German central bank would entrust
its gold to another sovereign power, is that
any more incredible that the German central
bank might entrust its gold, through leasing,
to PRIVATE entities -- say, Goldman Sachs or
J.P. Morgan/Chase? And yet it is acknowledged
that European central banks have done exactly
that.

If something terribly dangerous and dubious
wasn't going on with gold, central banks and
governments would be far more forthcoming
with answers about gold and gold policy than
they have been.

A few weeks ago, on my behalf, a member of
Congress put to the Federal Reserve Board
eight specific questions about gold and U.S.
gold policy. The Fed's response, received
this week, answered ... none of them. My
eighth question: "Exactly what is the policy
of the Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department,
and the Exchange Stabilization Fund toward gold
and the gold reserves of the United States?"

Not a complicated question. I encourage others
to try asking it before concluding that ANYTHING
in the world of gold is incredible.

Chris Powell

(08/17/2001; 19:13:49 MDT - Msg ID: 59832)

German trust of U.S.

Maybe I should have added that if the German
government trusts the United States enough
to allow the stationing in Germany of tens of
thousands of soldiers, sailors, and airmen,
a shell game with the gold depositories may
not seem like such a big deal.

Henri

(08/17/2001; 19:28:38 MDT - Msg ID: 59833)

Gold on Display

Have just returned from an extended tour of Australia's Eastern shores and would like to report on a wonderful exhibit currently at the Melboure Museum of Natural History called simply "Gold".

On exhibit are some of the most fantasticly crafted gold items I have ever seen. My favorite was one of the Geelong cups awarded for Turf racing in the late 1800's.

It took me 3 hours to view the entire display

If you get a chance see this fabulous traveling exhibit

darkhorse

(08/17/2001; 19:42:31 MDT - Msg ID: 59834)

Chris Powell (msg#: 59825)

"This way everyone can pretend to have his gold. Problem is,
everyone's claims add up to more gold than there is."

Exactly!!! I'm as far behind one the curve as anyone else re: this SDR mess, but ever since I first read JT's article, there's been this (huge) red flag and voice in the back of my head screaming that everybody can't lay claim to the same physical pile! (I'll pass on the obvious comments about what a pile these people have made of this whole scheme.)

Cavan Man

(08/17/2001; 19:47:19 MDT - Msg ID: 59835)

(No Subject)

Chris, leasing gold while still maintaining physical possession and actually relinquishing possession are two very different scenarios agreed? Also, "incredibility" and opacity have different meanings.

All the CBers belong to the same club but all have sovereign interests and responsibilities; responsibilities of a fiduciary nature. If in fact the Bundesbank is scratching our back there must be a good reason. I think that reason has everything to do with the unwinding of the gold carry trade.

The monetary ills we are experiencing today are in large measure related to the dollar's aged reserve currency status in fiat context. If German gold is defending the dollar; for that indeed is the implication that must necessarily be drawn from your remarks then, we do have a problem.

Only gold at a much higher valuation can make everyone whole. That day is coming. Keep up the good work.

PS: I can forsee a day when those US troops will be coming home from Germany.

Bascom Toadvine

(08/17/2001; 19:48:29 MDT - Msg ID: 59836)

Netking Msg #59203 of 8/8/01

Was posting from the "Rydges" hotel in Rotorua by the turf club.

darkhorse

(08/17/2001; 20:13:14 MDT - Msg ID: 59837)

(No Subject)

http://www.prudentbear.com/bearthoughts.htm"I hope readers have gotten their financial houses in order ahead of the coming storm because it's fast approaching."

darkhorse

(08/17/2001; 20:18:07 MDT - Msg ID: 59838)

Duck! season

http://www.prudentbear.com/bearthoughts.htm"I hope readers have gotten their financial houses in order ahead of the coming storm because it's fast approaching."

---------------------

God has put a pretty good head on my shoulders (He gave me the wisdom to eventually find this site and gather more). I can't help but believe we are in for some seriously tough times ahead, even for those that are "solvent". Seems like a pretty good time to have a stash of gold and silver (wisdom, even more so; after all, to paraphrase, a fool and his gold/silver....).

BR549

(08/17/2001; 20:18:27 MDT - Msg ID: 59839)

Henri, Welcome back!

Henri (msg#: 59833)

I have some good friends in Perth who enlightened me to the fact that there was a huge interest in gold there. I love 49'er style museums. What is the feeling about gold where you were on the East Coast?

Black Blade

(08/17/2001; 20:47:21 MDT - Msg ID: 59840)

Ugly Times In Nevada - The Making of Modern "Ghost Towns" (From the Rumor Mill)

Well, it has been a long day. I met a couple of old acquaintances from Nevada Gold Country today out in the petroleum parch and they tell me some "interesting" news. We discussed old times and business at a local microbrewery. One told me that Newmont's Gold Quarry Mine is indeed closing down and also that Barrick will be laying off another 200 people in the Elko, NV area soon. He also said that there is a rumor that AngloGold's Independence Mining operations could also go on "Care and Maintenance." Apparently as if low gold prices weren't enough, energy costs are killing the US gold producers. Another sign is that mining towns such as Tonopah, Winnemucca, Ely, and Elko are turning into "Ghost Towns." For sale signs are springing up all over as miners bail out. Most gave up on finding home buyers and just turn over their properties to the banks. Most of downtown Tonopah is boarded up as one of the last Mines (Equatorial) recently closed and miners are leaving in masse dropping the town's population nearly in half. The other told me that Nevada exploration drillers are also leaving for greener pastures in the natural gas plays in Wyoming, New Mexico, and Montana. When gold prices turn around I think that the Gold producers will be hard pressed to find experienced miners and professional staff to work the mines and exploration projects as the old guard vows to never return, or "Once bitten - twice shy."

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(08/17/2001; 20:50:19 MDT - Msg ID: 59841)

Forbes Body Count

http://www.forbes.com/2001/01/30/layoffs.html
Gee, I'm full of "good news" tonight. The "Bone Pile" grows some more.

Black Blade

(08/17/2001; 21:02:16 MDT - Msg ID: 59842)

Japanese banks seek to hide derivatives losses

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT388Z8SHQC&live=true&tagid=ZZZC19QUA0C⊂heading=asia%20pacific
Snippit:

Japan's banks are seeking to avoid revealing potential losses on their derivative portfolios by lobbying regulatory authorities to postpone legislation that forces them to disclose the true market value of their positions. The financial strength of the banks - which hold massive securities portfolios - has already been undermined by weakness in the stockmarket, and it is feared disclosing derivative losses will further undermine confidence in the system.

Black Blade: Seems reasonable as there are these nagging rumors that a couple of major Japanese banks are on the verge of collapse and may be propped up by Government intervention. The government is said to be back into the Nikkei in a big way, however, if that is true, then in recent weeks their efforts have not been effective as the Nikkei crashes and should continue to crash going forward. "Interesting Times."

Black Blade

(08/17/2001; 21:13:51 MDT - Msg ID: 59843)

Japan's Kamikaze Economy - Asian Contagion Continued

http://www.fortune.com/indexw.jhtml?channel=artcol.jhtml&doc_id=203742
Snippit:

It was, in the annals of democracy, a unique campaign slogan: Vote for our party, said the new Prime Minister of Japan, and I guarantee we'll have three years of no economic growth! Sure enough, voters responded to that inspiring battle cry, giving him a solid majority in one chamber of Japan's legislature.

These are very strange times in the world's second-largest economy--partly scary, partly hopeful. Japan's politics, almost always impenetrable to the outsider, may be more warped now than they have ever been in the postwar era. And that's the hopeful part. They are warped in a way that may (and we stress, may) actually provide a little hope that something might finally get done to resolve the country's intractable--and rapidly worsening--economic problems.

That's the scary part: the economics. After nearly a decade of teetering on the edge of a deflationary abyss, Japan, it's now clear, tipped into it earlier this year. Wholesale and consumer prices are plunging. Industrial production is down, as is consumer spending for every month this year compared with last. Unemployment is rising quickly, so consumers are likely to cut back even more, and that will lead to additional cuts in production, more unemployment, further declines in prices, and...you get the drift: a classic, vicious deflationary cycle the likes of which the world hasn't seen in a developed country since, well, the Great Depression.

Black Blade: Now that's a campaign platform for ya. "We promise to do nothing." - These are "Interesting Times."

Sojourner

(08/17/2001; 21:32:22 MDT - Msg ID: 59844)

German Gold

I was told by a college Dean of Finance that Germany still has its assets in the old BIS (Bank for International Settlements) created during WWII in Basel, Switzerland. Some authors and historians say that the bank is also used for "laundering" money, and is jointly controlled by several countries. I have nothing to base this on except word of mouth.

sj

site steward

(08/17/2001; 21:39:22 MDT - Msg ID: 59845)

Important(?) context on SDRs for CoBra and any others having an interest.

To my mind, this historical perspective from the time of the SDR creation sets the stage for understanding much that follows, providing insight for understanding the events of today.

This element is of utmost importance to understand SDRs: Special Drawing Rights emerged in concept in the mid-1960's in reaction to the same forces that gave rise to the establishment and the eventual demise of the London Gold Pool.

Please review that once again before moving on.

The SDR program was ratified in Rio at the annual conference of the IMF in 1967 to take effect in 1969. This is also an important factor: the political thought of the day was that this creation and implementation of "paper gold" was preferred to the alternative which was increasing the price of gold -- something which was felt would have yielded unacceptable benefits to the big gold producers South Africa and the Soviet Union. (Remember, this was the mid-60's, Cold War, etc.) This, too, is a helpful point to bear in mind.

As alluded to above, the SDR was to function as a supplemental reserve asset under the auspices of the IMF, an organization that originated in function as the nursemaid of the Bretton Woods agreement that established an international banking reserve system built upon the dollar (and other currencies through the dollar) being pegged to gold at $35 per ounce.

SDRs were therefore initially created in imitation of the key currency, the dollar, with a book value equivalent to the Bretton Woods dollar at $35 per ounce. Or put another way, initially one SDR was equal to one dollar, with SDR 35 serving as the paper equivalent reserve value of one ounce of gold. However, as this system was meant to relieve the gold-conversion pressures evident during the London Gold Pool, the SDR was to behave as "paper gold" without title to any real gold.

As we know from history, the failing confidence over the inflationary ways of Vietnam-era U.S. inflation promoted international pressure to redeem dollars for gold, that resulted in a U.S. default -- closing the gold redemption window in 1971, despite the first allocations of SDRs in 1970.

When this gold default broke the key structure of the Bretton Woods agreement, the IMF was quick to adjust to the new reality by first switching the value of the SDR to something based on the floating average value of a basket of 16 primary trading currencies instead of the dollar alone. This later gave way to a value based on a basket of five currencies, which is now down to four with the dissolution of the Dmark and French franc into the common euro. (Others in the basket are the dollar, the pound, and the yen. Forty-five percent of the value of the SDR is based on the value of the dollar relative to the others. This may seem difficult to grasp at first, but if the dollar weakens, the SDR would likely also weaken in real terms, although it would in fact gain strength (price) relative to the dollar.)

To address the remaining issue of the international overhang of U.S. dollars in 1975 Fed Chairman Arthur Burns floated the idea that foreigners might exchange some of their unwanted dollars for SDRs as coordinated through the IMF.

Then, as international confidence in the dollar (i.e., U.S. fiscal and monetary management) was plummeting accompanied by a soaring gold price, it is almost remarkable that there were no notable decisions to come out of the September/October 1979 annual meeting of the IMF in Belgrade during this troublesome time. However, for the purposes of our present dialogue (as follow up to my other post), it is worthwhile to note that the IMF for the first time officially discussed at this annual conference a version of the old Burns scheme to allow central banks to swap out of their burgeoning dollar accounts for positions in SDRs.

Two-month veteran Fed Chairman Paul Volcker recognized the dire situation for what it was and left Belgrade early to tackle immediately the problem of arresting the rampant dollar inflation, and the plan was never subsequently implemented. However, the IMF did consequently liberalize the use of SDRs as stated in the IMF's own words, for "certain operations that were not otherwise expressly authorized by the Articles. These include the use of SDRs in forward purchases or sales, in swaps, to settle financial obligations, to make loans, to make donations (grants), and as security for the performance of financial obligations."

So where are we now? After their first allocation in 1970, SDRs have not been allocated since 1981, although a proposal has been pending since 1997 to double the amount outstanding. If the U.S. gives the go-ahead, it will happen. Perhaps that is yet another thing we can add to our list of telltale signs to watch for, signaling an official preparation and acknowledgement that defense of the dollar is imminent.

OK, now here's the answer to your question, CoBra, about the distinction between SDRs (a "paper" item) and SDR Certificates (also a paper item).

Mechanically, IMF allocations of SDRs are received by the Treasury and placed into the Exchange Stabilization Fund were they are simply held according to their monetary value according to the going exchange rate formulas. The allocated SDRs are represented equally on the Treasury balance sheet as both assets AND liabilities. Additional holdings of SDRs acquired outside of the IMF allocation quotas are added only to the asset side of the ledger. This asset side is adjusted downward according to any SDR Certificates that have been issued. Think of these Certificates as the title to an equivalent value of SDRs, similar to the title you provide to a bank to represent your car if you are using it for collateral on a loan.

That is precisely how the Treasury uses SDR Certificates. As part of overall fiscal strategy, the Treasury can raise funds (dollars) through several methods. I can collect taxes from the citizens of the nation, and it can sell bonds to these same citizens. It can also sell bonds directly to the Fed, which holds the bond as an asset and issued dollar currency as a balancing liability on the central bank books. The Treasury can also issue Certificates (as title) valued at $42.22 per ounce against its gold holdings, which the Fed holds as an asset against the issue of currency to the Treasury as a balancing liability. The Treasury can buy back its gold Certificates at this $42.22 per ounce rate.

In a similar fashion, if the Treasury feels it is fiscally expedient to do so, it may issue Certificates against the value of its holdings of SDRs, which the Fed then holds as a collateral asset and must monetize against currency as a balancing liability on the central bank books. The Fed must accept or remit these Certificates according to the will of the Treasury. This applies equally to the gold Certificates and to the SDR Certificates. Other than similar treatment in the monetization process, there is no connection between the two.

Any look at the Treasury balance sheet (if one is inclined to believe the numbers) will confirm that the balance of SDR assets matches precisely as it should in accord with the Fed returning the Certificates to the Treasury, to the exclusion of any other party or usage directed by the Fed. Similarly, the Treasury's balance sheet reveals that the Treasury's SDR holdings are encumbered only by the $2.2 billion value in Certificates -- the same value in Certificates that are visibly held by the Fed in the SDR Certificate Account. There are no other encumbrances that can be attributed to a third party as as directed by the Treasury itself. That's where this all ends until new developments surface to change our management of existing reserves.

Again, the final analysis comes down to each person's decision to accept or reject the balance sheets as honest instruments, and I am, or else there is no end to the wild speculation which becomes possible. I see no point picking and choosing part of a balance sheet to believe or ignore so as to use it as justification for activities which may or may not be at odds with another part. It is better to either accept the whole thing up front or else reject the whole thing in its entirety. A question of official integrity that each of us must decide for ourselves whether or not to accept, however, I think either choice leads one to a conclusion that personal gold ownership is a must. Either our spreadsheets are honest and our currency is doomed, or else our government is corrupt beyond salvage in which case we are doomed even more so!

Sorry for this SDR dissertation. The simple difference between SDRs and Certs is that SDRs are the paper IMF-sanctioned assets that are allocated according to membership quotas among the the nations belonging to the IMF's SDR department. The Certificates are simply the title instruments used by the Treasury to represent the transfer of SDRs as assets to the Fed for purposes of monetization.

And to reiterate, speaking personally, this looks to me like prep work for the day the world turns its back on U.S. Govt debt securities, insisting on other forms of primary international reserve assets. The pathetic SDRs are the first items we'll throw into the whirlwind, and anchor our position with gold that SHALL rise in value in the course of events to come.

And if you don't like this view of mine, feel free to let me know where and how you disagree, but please don't hold the Company responsible in any way for my personal lack of comprehension on these esoteric international monetary matters.

OK? Did I cover all the bases, like it or not? I tried to give the complete picture of this IMF-legacy reserve structure, so for that, please forgive the length and any educational tone.

Respectfully submitted,
Randy

sector

(08/17/2001; 21:42:28 MDT - Msg ID: 59846)

@sierra madre Let's Try to Make it Simple...

...When the holder of an SDR OR an SDR Certificate presents it to any IMF member he or she can ask for and get physical gold...period.

Therefore, the sale of such SDRs or SDR certificates represents the sale of gold.
The physical gold which backed up the SDR or the SDR Certificate in the first place is placed at risk by the sale of SDRs or SDR Certificates.

The rules stipulated in section #123 page 37 of the IMF Manual on Monetary and Financial Statistics are crystal clear on this point. ""SDR holdings represent UNCONDITIONAL rights to obtain foreign exchange or OTHER RESERVE ASSETS from other IMF members." An SDR Certificate is a binding proxy for an SDR.

The ESF gold account which was once unencumbered is at risk with an SDR or SDR Certificate claim outstanding against it.

It is difficult to accept that US authorities have deliberately squandered the assets of US taxpayers in this scandal...difficult but not impossible.

Consider the IMF's official policy in appendix I Role of gold in the IMF:

"...Furthermore, the IMF may not engage in such transactions as loans, leases, or swaps and may not use gold as collateral."

This statement is stands in direct conflict with sections #154,155,156,157,159,160,161,163 and164 of the above mentioned IMF Manual. These section describe in great detail (with examples) the gold swap, gold lease, gold loan, gold as repo and collateralization of gold for IMF members.

Clearly what we have here is the unraveling of a stupendous scandal.

Sierra Madre

(08/17/2001; 22:58:33 MDT - Msg ID: 59847)

Sir Sector, many thanks for your kind attempts at clarification; HOWEVER

You have stated that "When the holder of an SDR OR an SDR Certificate presents it to any IMF member he or she can ask for and get physical gold...period."

But in Turk's article we read the text of the IMF that says:

"In accordance with Article XIX, Section 2(c), the Fund prescribes that...a participant, by agreement with another participant, may engage in an operation by which (a) one of the parties transfers [i.e., swaps] to the other party SDRs in exchange for an equivalent amount of currency or another monetary asset, other than gold."

Note the "other than gold". SDRs cannot be exchanged for gold. And since the SDRs are "assets with no corresponding liabilities" this rules out the obligation of anyone, to give up anything whatosoever against the presentation of an SDR, including gold. SDRs are not "claims" against anything.

Turk has said that SDRs cannot be exchanged, but he thinks SDR certificates COULD be exchanged (swapped) for gold. He might be right about this, but in any case, the only way I can understand that the US gold reserves are at risk, is by supposing the "swaps" or "exchanges" to be TEMPORARY, not definitive exchanges.

If and when the swaps were temporary and had to be reversed eventually, then the SDR certificates would be returned to the ESF and the gold would legally have to be returned to where it came from. That would certainly present a huge - in fact, insoluble problem - for we are supposing that US has in the meantime sold the gold obtained by this transaction, into the market to keep the price down.

But, given that the IMF created the SDRs as "extra, make-believe gold" and that all parties agreed to treat these instruments just like physical gold itself, perhaps the exchange or swap is a PERMANENT exchange. Then whoever gave up the physical in return for the SDR certificates is the lucky (!) holder of some great imaginary paper, just as good as gold (Central Bankers are capable of deluding themselves to an amazing extent) And that holder is not able to get any gold back. In fact, part of the delusion is that gold is not even wanted back. (Or so they repeat to themselves over and over) It's a worthless old relic of barbarous times, and so on.

So, the question is then: 1. are the swaps TEMPORARY arrangements which can be unwound to the original situation (theoretically, at least, if not in reality)? or,

2. Are the swaps permanent exchanges, and some unidentified central banks now only have SDR Certificates where they used to have gold in their vaults?

In the first case, the US reserves are definitely encumbered. They may be in the possession of the US, but are not its property (And "possession is 9/10ths of the law" let us remember)

In the second case, the ones who have lost their physical gold are the unidentified central banks, not the US.

I think that herein lies the need for clarification, for a full understanding of the situation.

More and more confused Sierra

SteveH

(08/17/2001; 23:06:49 MDT - Msg ID: 59848)

Randy

So, in essence, you are stating that the SDR is IMF controlled (or owned?) paper gold in the hands of various countries for purposes of settlement. From you discussion it would appear that an SDR certificate is an SDR placed with the Fed for monitization available to be bought back at equal value at will. Your talk denotes that US gold (owned by the Treasury) would not have SDR's associated with it and therefore can not be encumbered the way Mr. Turk would suggest since it is IMF and not US gold that involves SDRs? Is this correct?

Sierra Madre

(08/17/2001; 23:08:47 MDT - Msg ID: 59849)

Curiouser and curiouser....

Sir Sector: I may have erred in saying that "SDRs are not a claim against anything", in view of your quote of an IMF text as follows:

The rules stipulated in section #123 page 37 of the IMF Manual on Monetary and Financial Statistics are crystal clear on this point. ""SDR holdings represent UNCONDITIONAL rights to obtain foreign exchange or OTHER RESERVE ASSETS from other IMF members." An SDR Certificate is a binding proxy for an SDR.

But, what are "other reserve assets"? Gold appears to be excluded, according to the text I previously quoted.

This is a huge muddle and we are really still in the dark about the critical question: are US reserves encumbered or not?

Muddled Sierra

SteveH

(08/17/2001; 23:14:53 MDT - Msg ID: 59850)

Randy and Mike

It seems that there is no end to the SDR confusion. Is it the IMF gold controlled or held by the US that is encumbered? Is it US gold that is encumbered? Or, is it ESF gold, that is not part of IMF or part of US gold that is encumbered? Or is all the yellow stuff encumbered? Plus, Mike, what risk specifically is Europe taking with swapping SDR's and why not the US?

(08/17/2001; 23:31:30 MDT - Msg ID: 59851)

From SDRer of Kitco

--------------
Date: Fri Aug 17 2001 10:06
SDRer (Friday, August 17, 2001) ID#280245:

1 Gold ( oz. ) = 275.600 US Dollar
1 gold franc = 2.56961 US Dollar

1 Gold ( oz. ) = 302.020 Euro
1 gold franc = 2.81594 Euro

1 Gold ( oz. ) = 33,062.4 Japanese Yen
1 gold franc = = 308.263 Japanese Yen

USD United States Dollars 0.777996 1.28535
XAU Gold Ounces 214.027 0.00467231
XPT Platinum Ounces 341.540 0.00292791
XAG Silver Ounces 3.23652 0.308974
---------------------------------

He says that 1 oz of gold costs 214.027 SDR. I do not know whether IMF would agree with that (with their gold at $42.22) or how SDRer gets these numbers. Anyway, looks interesting to me.

megatron

(08/17/2001; 23:34:19 MDT - Msg ID: 59852)

CHALLENGE!!!!

I challenge Greenspan, Summers, or Rubin to a fist fight, in my yard, ANY TIME! You are the most sickening unAmerican pukes I've ever seen. I will kick all of your fu$#%#∈' asses one at a time, no problem. Except you don't have the guts to physically face anyone. Come on you pri^%$ks I dare you. I'll even wager Wanniski's payola that you ALL couldn't take me. Sad little slumped shouldered bastards that you are.

megatron

(08/17/2001; 23:46:13 MDT - Msg ID: 59853)

? beer later.....

See what happens when you drink? Please, someone, RUIN THEM ALL!

Netking

(08/18/2001; 00:13:51 MDT - Msg ID: 59854)

Iraq get's one? / Bascom Toadvine / Megatron

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010817/ts/iraq_usa_plane_dc_1.htmlSnippit:
Iraq said on Friday its air defenses may have hit a U.S. or British warplane flying over northern Iraq. Evidence points to the probability that one of the hostile aircraft coming from Turkey was hit, a military spokesman told the Iraqi News Agency.

Meanwhile: Israeli troops move into Gaza Strip
http://www.msnbc.com/news/468764.asp?0cm=c40#BODY
-----------------------------------------------------------
Bascom Toadvine(59836)A unique picturesque wonderland down there, and the Rotorua sulphur great for the nasal passages too!(gotta make sure ya polish the PM's after)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Megatron - Sir, was the name of the drink, "Indian fire water" per chance? .View Yesterday's Discussion.

Netking

(08/18/2001; 02:16:23 MDT - Msg ID: 59855)

Gloom deepens . . . focus now on Tuesday's US Federal Reserve meeting

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1497000/1497276.stmSnippit:
Bad news from a number of major US companies sent share prices on both sides of the Atlantic lower on Friday.

Gloomy announcements from US car maker Ford and the computer giant Dell triggered a sell-off, and figures showing the US trade gap widening added to the depression

. . . The prospects for a quick recovery in the US economy now seem even more remote following Friday's poor corporate news. "The feeling now is far more negative and far more cautious than a month ago" said Stanley Nabi, managing director at Credit Suisse Asset Management

Attention is now likely to focus on the US Federal Reserve which meets next Tuesday to discuss monetary policy. The Fed has already cut interest rates six times this year to try and stimulate the US economy.

colourofmoney

(08/18/2001; 03:04:58 MDT - Msg ID: 59856)

Genuine bullion

Centennial, FOA et alWe hear all that talk about buying physical, but how do you know you're buying the real stuff and not some bullion with the inner center filled with tungsten? As you may or may not know, tungsten has exactly the same density of gold and is de facto used for falsifications. Assays of renown banks or smelters are no guarantee whatsoever.

BR549

(08/18/2001; 03:51:20 MDT - Msg ID: 59857)

Deflation ... done deal

A brilliant "golden nugget" of an essay obscured in the Conceptual Eclownomics dung pile.

BR549

(08/18/2001; 05:33:01 MDT - Msg ID: 59859)

Randy's Car and SDCar Certificates

site steward (msg#: 59845)

I enjoyed your brief history of the SDR, ESF, SDR Certificates, etc's. I am still having problems understanding the rational behind the balance sheet accounting the Fed/Treasury is doing.

Randy-"Additional holdings of SDRs acquired outside of the IMF allocation quotas are added only to the asset side of the ledger. This asset side is adjusted downward according to any SDR Certificates that have been issued. Think of these Certificates as the title to an equivalent value of SDRs, similar to the title you provide to a bank to represent your car if you are using it for collateral on a loan."

You cannot add an asset to any balance sheet regardless of the source, without adding a corresponding liability, i.e., to my knowledge under standard American accounting procedures. Assets cannot be adjusted downward by offsetting them with paper from the asset side of the ledger.

In reference to your car being used as collateral, let's take a simplistic example of a small bank---

When my bank (The First National Bank of Cornfield County) loaned you money on your car, bank Assets (cash) would decrease by the loan amount and bank Liabilities would increase (loans receivable) when the loan was made. The collateral or piece of paper representing the value of the car would not appear on the bank's balance sheet. As the loan is repaid (income statements aside) bank assets would increase (cash) and bank liabilities would decrease (loans receivable) and interest charged would accrue to interest income.

The paper or collateral for your car would not appear on bank balance sheets. When assets are added and offset by collateral this is represented on the balance sheet as a receivable (represented by the encumbered title for your car).

Back to your example of your car being used as collateral. My small bank could issue an SDCar Certificate which would represent the value of your car and then in turn sell or loan this SDCar paper out to another financial entity. Although the bank really doesn't own your car physically, it has encumbered your ability to resell or dispose of your car because of its "legal" claim to your property. If you repay the loan, then I recall the SDCar Certificate from the other financial entity and provide you delivery of your car's paper title. However, if you don't repay the loan, then doesn't this other financial entity that I have provided special drawing rights to via this SDCar Certificate have the right to ask you to physically deliver your car to them? (REPO it, you BETCHA!) Whether you will deliver or default is a different matter.

Now go back and substitute the word gold for car and you'll see what a mess this whole SDR thing has become since it's humble beginnings as a paper sham for "bustin" the gold standard.

By the way, I am not saying that your assessments are wrong about this manipulated accounting of adding to the Asset side of the ledger only. According to Turk you are just the opposite. What I am saying is that if these SOB's at the Fed/Treasury are cooking the books by adding assets without an offsetting liability, that in itself should be enough to GATA them out of existence.

So, back to SDR Certificates, haven't they become a "paper" sham to loan gold assets legally without actually selling the physical gold? And don't the owners of these SDR Certificates have a legal right to claim our gold. I can't see why any entity would take these SDR Certificates if they are only backed by a basket of 4 paper currencies (FRN's being 45% of them). They would however if they thought the paper was backed by physical Collateral.

I think there is much, much more to the story.

nickel62

(08/18/2001; 05:34:33 MDT - Msg ID: 59860)

With all due respect to GATA the real leverage point in the gold coverup is to explain the current findings of Turke et all to the globalization protestors at the World Bank and IMF meetings in Washinton!

If the leaders of these groups are able to grasp the techniques that have allowed the manipulation of world commodity prices all hell would break loose and TV coverage that might wake up the developed worlds consciousness would be assured...Breif these guys, Murphy...It is the leverage point you have been looking for.

Cavan Man

(08/18/2001; 06:24:14 MDT - Msg ID: 59861)

Hey Towne Crier

Thanks pal.......(very much)....CM

SteveH

(08/18/2001; 07:17:10 MDT - Msg ID: 59862)

Equal disturbing but...

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/turk081401.html"...The US Gold Reserve does double-duty. It sits in the vaults at Fort Knox and the other depositories, but the US Treasury has issued Gold Certificates against it. The Federal Reserve owns these Gold Certificates, giving the Fed a claim to the 261.6 million ounces in the US Gold Reserve. Simple enough, and the same transaction is used for 'paper gold' - the SDR's - with just one small difference. The US Treasury has transferred its SDR's to the ESF, so the ESF and not the US Treasury issued the SDR Certificates now owned by the Federal Reserve...."

So, the Fed has claim to the US gold? Is the Fed a US governemental entity? Who owns the Fed? The people or the banks?

SteveH

(08/18/2001; 07:43:45 MDT - Msg ID: 59863)

Micael, Randy, HBM, others

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/turk081401.htmlHaving been confused by the various descriptors of SDRs and to what gold it applies, I re-read Turk's piece above. It seems that Mr. Turk believes that all US gold is represented by SDRs under IMF rules. In other words, each country's gold is valued in SDRs.

It is also clear that the Clinton Administration encumbered US gold, by selling rights to it, into the market, mostly around 1999 in order to contain the price.

From what else we know, it would seem that noteable bullion banks may have played a role in this in the commodity markets. In other words, claims to US gold were sold into US commodity markets and perhaps the LBMA. These banks took part in it, probably as knowing participants, and with insider info, could have and probably did profit individually from such knowledge.

The UK Bullion auction was a visible attempt to 1) take eyes away from the above and 2) also suppress the price of gold during the same critical period.

Since it appears that the US still has its physical gold, per Mr. Turk, then the question is and will remain, when the markers are called in, will the metal be delivered?

If it is not delivered then that is strike 3, default 3, no one will trust the US financial managers and perhaps the oil spiggot is turned off. So, to keep the oil flowing, the gold may have to be delivered. In the meantime, the rest of the internation gang, having discovered all of this, wanted to play too. Meaning, US gold is encumbered all over the place.

As an interesting aside, the 1979 agreement mentioned in Turk's article corresponds with the same agreement, the Jamaica Accords, that FOA and Another alluded to a few years back. Interesting happenings to say the least.

In essence, Mr. Turk and Mr. Murphy have essentially uncovered the selling of European gold with an IOUs for America's gold in a five year window by the Clinton administration in order to contain the price of gold and keep inflation in check. They called this the strong dollar policy. Now, under a new administration, the discovery of this is now going to cause ruminations. Let us hope that honor and courage become the motis operendi (sp?) of the US financial managers. All of this is assuredly a matter that should be blamed on those who perpetrated the great American gold selloff, the Clinton Administration.

Econoclast

(08/18/2001; 08:36:10 MDT - Msg ID: 59864)

The massive secrecy and confusion over gold/SDR's/etc.

In trying to understand the games being played, and reading all the discourse and speculation, what really gets me is the fact that so much brainpower and effort has to be spent on trying to decipher this.

The gold (wherever it is) belongs to The People of the United States. Literally, to those whom it was taken from in 1933. The dollar system, including the FED, is SUPPOSSED to act as an agent of The People in providing a monetary system with a stable account of value. The government is our servant-right?

Our financial system does not hold nuclear-bomb-making technology, or defense plans to protect the country. The whole idea and culture of secrecy in our government is completely opposite to the principles this country was founded upon.

Why do smart people have to spend so much energy trying to decipher the truth of our money. As Americans, we don't need to keep our money secret from ourselves. The secrecy only benefits ONE group of people-we all know who.

Did GATA truly understand at the beginning how deep their digging would get them? If only The People could wake up to this one subject and time! I would love to see the banksters whole world (literally) come crashing down with an honest money system to replace it.

Got Gold for the transition to a golden future?

Cavan Man

(08/18/2001; 08:36:39 MDT - Msg ID: 59865)

SteveH

RE: Turk/Howe/GATA/A/FOA/TGIn my own intellectually limited and time starved way of digesting all of the Turk/Howe/GATA/A/FOA/TG information and commentary, I believe that the river of consequences is carrying them and us in the same direction. We're all going to wash up on the same beach although we might be carried by different currents along the way.

Canuck

(08/18/2001; 08:40:49 MDT - Msg ID: 59866)

@ Megatron

Sad, sad thing you beating the crap out of old men.

I'll bring the camcorder!!

;)

Henri

(08/18/2001; 09:18:03 MDT - Msg ID: 59867)

Cavan Man

Hi Cavan Man...is it time to back up the truck yet?

Cavan Man

(08/18/2001; 09:23:32 MDT - Msg ID: 59868)

Hello Henri

Yes, I believe so. BTW, Bloomberg site is reporting that Argentine bond prices have plunged as it appears the IMF negotiations are not a slam dunk by any means.

Old Yeller

(08/18/2001; 09:48:12 MDT - Msg ID: 59869)

Hedge fund in trouble?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010817/n17582222.html
Sounds familiar,hmm,must be just a coincidence.

VanRip

(08/18/2001; 09:51:29 MDT - Msg ID: 59870)

Suggested reading (please consider)

http://www.financialsense.com/series2/riders/complete.htmInteresting thought:

Stop contributing to 401K's (even if only temporarily). Keep money in ready cash instead or if you're lucky, borrow from the plan and pay back the loan with the sum you would have been pouring into the plan (your contribution).

Cavan Man

(08/18/2001; 21:18:52 MDT - Msg ID: 59898)

Diamond Jim Brady

Mr. Brady was a salesman who sold supplies to the railroads. He invested his commissions in diamonds. My friends, the rest, as they say is, l'histoire (that's history for you folks from Cape Girardeau)

SteveH

(08/18/2001; 21:32:03 MDT - Msg ID: 59899)

Michael

Well written and bravo.

A few points come to mind. First, what is or who is to say that Europe would be the only group to have actually delivered gold. All we are aware of is a custodial gold allocation change at West Point of 1700 tons. I see your point about the 1200 tons of Swiss gold and the point about the outright public sale of gold in the UK -- all public and desparate attempts to "settle up" gold accounts world wide. Is it that Europe is the only place to hold enough gold to let it go into the markets for sale? I think not. There are other players out there, we don't see them.

Also, for all gold accounts to be settled requires letting gold go from large central bank accounts or up to 10 years of "all" mining production in order to satisfy the gold already swapped or leased. Your scenario would put us at the year 2009.

I too would hope the US hasn't foolishly squandered its gold. It sort of looks that way now, but more discovery is needed. I believe more suprises await in this gold mystery that even Sherlock would have a hard time deducting.

Cheers.

Cavan Man

(08/18/2001; 21:42:59 MDT - Msg ID: 59900)

SteveH

A lot can happen is seven years.

auspec

(08/18/2001; 21:53:18 MDT - Msg ID: 59901)

MK and the Turk Hypothesis

Couple brief comments in regards to your analysis of the Turk hypothesis:
From Post #59887----- "Statutorily, the U.S. reserve cannot be brought into play without the blessing of the U.S. Congress. Are we to believe that the U.S. Treasury clandestinely brought the U.S. gold reserve into play circumventing Congress and/or the intent of Congress? I myself think moving in that direction might be a dead end."

"First, my own belief is that central bank involvement in the gold lending business came about as an extension of the lender of last resort function of the central banks. Don't forget that this function was the primary reason for the establishment of the Federal Reserve and the other central banks in the first place."

Comments: I am withholding judgement on the 'Turk Hypothesis' for now, but must make a few comments in regards to the above statements. I believe you are assigning an overly altruistic motive to CB origination as well as their ongoing participation in gold the suppression. These entities have had little motive, but to gain power and financial influence. Their bailouts as lender of last resort always involve someone's money/gold other than their own. This was nothing more than a Federal Reserve coup, thrust upon the American people in the dark of night, expressly contrary to our Constitution. NO white knights coming to aid anyone. The monetary ills/deceits of our nation lie at the feet of these power mongers and their doomed-to-failure fiat.
Now about Congress not being able to be circumvented. Would that were true, yet these officials are compromised almost to the man/woman. Have you ever seen a list of the various offenses/crimes of our current Congressional leaders? I'm talking failed businesses, bankruptcies, various frauds and offenses that would make a regular criminal blush. These blokes are our protectors against a shadow government and its {long} ongoing machinations? We are not that early in the game, my friend. The news brownout of the GATA cause will easily demonstrate the stranglehold the PE have on this country. If you need more proof, please wait a few more months for the Howe/GATA lawsuit to be tossed on its ear, along with what remains of our 'rule of law'. Western financial civilization will NOT be brought to its knees through this compromised Judicial system, imho. You overlook the mountain of derivatives and various shenanigans that a dutiful Congress causually ignores because the opponent controls their career, for starters. Congress is merely a stooge in this play and the Fderal Reserve and its shadow owners adeptly call the plays with little to no interference.

You also made a statement about gold and the dollar:
"...I do not buy the argument that gold needs to be sold to defend the dollar."
It is very hard for me to believe you assign little motive to gold bashing in support of the US$! Yes, if all countries try to return their dollars for some degree of value few will have success, but the FIRST or SECOND or X countries to act will fare nicely, breaking ranks without hesitation at some point. The first countries to act will have few constraints and the rest will be left holding the empty bag. Gold is bashed and held tightly, seldom allowed to move upwards even 2 days in a row, simply because it is one of fiats few natural enemies. The timing and the games speak volumes that much more is involved than mere 'reconciliation'. One merely has to look at the same cast of characters doing the ongoing bidding of their masters.
Yes, clearly 'something has been going on in the gold market', but it is much more ominous than most believe. This is a brazen enemy that seldom flinches, not because it doesn't have severe vulnerabilities, but because it is drunk with its own power. Only the hand of the free market, combined with legitimate investigation and exposure into the depths this country is already compromised, will finally end this American travesty. No happy face for the FED or Congress from this soldier! Thanks for tolerating my view of 'reality'.
Kind regards always,
auspec

Cavan Man

(08/18/2001; 22:01:06 MDT - Msg ID: 59902)

auspec

Hello auspec. Where's Adam Smith when you need him?

Netking

(08/18/2001; 22:22:20 MDT - Msg ID: 59903)

Seal the next Contract With America in gold

http://www.mips1.net/mggold.nsf/b24ba9c1fe64994d42256794002693ce/4225685f0043d1b285256aaa007468cb?OpenDocumentSnippit:
In dealing with Turk and the other gold conspiracy sleuths, the Fed and Treasury face two impossible choices.

Even if they would prefer to be honest and get everything cleared up, to do so would invite endless campaigns on other issues. It is more prudent for them, having drawn an impressive veil across the money temples in the last 88 years, to leave things be.

If there is indeed a gold conspiracy then, like military "black ops", there is inevitably a point where the majority of the elite agree that the curtains must never be drawn aside because a greater good is at stake. The national interest is such a nebulous idea that it can be employed to defend anything � already has � no matter how reprehensible. Look no further than the rescue of Long Term Capital Management for a practical example of moral hazard turned financial harlotry.

Gold is no exception, and therein lies the rub. Turk actually exposes the likely legitimacy that money officials might invoke . . . .

Gold is not money:

Special Drawing Rights were created in 1968 when President Johnson was having a torrid time with the Europeans who vacuumed gold out of America because greenbacks had been debased by printing so many of them to pay for Vietnam and the Great Society.

The gold pool was closed, foreshadowing the closing of the gold window in 1971, and the International Monetary Fund created SDRs to substitute for gold, which was until then the primary unit of account among nations. SDRs were initially backed by a Group of Ten gold guarantee, but that was revoked when gold began to soar in response to the inflation unwittingly engineered by Presidents Nixon and Johnson.

When the US forced the world to move to a regime of floating currencies the IMF adopted the Second Amendment to its Articles of Agreement that had been under formulation since the late 1930s. The intention of the Second Amendment was to erase gold as money. The IMF and US Treasury backed up the change by selling a good deal of gold.

That is the defense the Fed and Treasury can invoke � as long ago as 1978 the IMF, backed by the global money power, agreed that gold should be displaced as a reserve asset. The fact that central banks never walked the talk is irrelevant; it was a policy and bureaucrats are obliged to act on policy whether they agree with it or not.

Maybe gold is money:

There again, if this is the defence then there is little reason to be secretive and obstructive. Instead, the silence of the Fed and Treasury actually signals that they are deathly scared of gold precisely because it remains money and they appear not to have been treating it too well.

But that doesn't make them guilty of anything except extraordinary poor judgement. Greenspan and O'Neil are damned if they do and damned if they don't. But they probably remain untouchable, even if there is an apparent breach of the Constitution. That hardly stopped anyone before. God bless America.

andrus sommerselg

(08/18/2001; 22:28:48 MDT - Msg ID: 59904)

German gold

Interesting talk relating to Turk's mystery of SDR's and SDR certificates. I especially found interesting USAGOLD's take on the subject. I am thankful for this great forum and all of its even greater minds at work solving pieces of this puzzle. Upon reading here this is what occured to me, though I am a newcomer therefore please forgive me if my thought is invalid for some unknown reason by myself.
Here it is: As far as I know there is the Euro system and the (12?) countries that form it so far. The Euro system is a stand alone system, no? By that I mean when it comes to its gold reserves it is separate from the individual countries. From these countries gold was shipped to the ECB to form its gold base and the left overs were/are(?)sitting in the CB's are to disposal. The Dutch have disposed of a 1000 tonnes extra(?) not long ago. So having this in mind I thought perhaps if German gold has been swapped for USA paper gold, it must have been extra, not needed for the Euro system. (I did not do any calculations nor check any data, so I am not sure this pondering is right.)
Why? Is the second question. Well, for one thing, how do the Germans get rid of the unwanted USA military presence? What about the garrisons and airbase in Italy? We have to agree that the EU most likely is not crazy about those foreign garrisons, but they need a real and tangible excuse to boot out the USA. We all know of the gold defaults of the USA and it serves as a clear precedent. I think it might be the excuse those EU politicians are looking for. They dispose of their excess gold thus buying a political victory. Costly, but a real machiavellian move.
I wonder what the contributors of this forum think about this?

Thanks.

Netking

(08/18/2001; 22:33:53 MDT - Msg ID: 59905)

Heavy demand for gold & silver bullion - India

http://www.hinduonnet.com/stories/06190004.htmSnippit:
Gold zoomed further on the bullion market here today due to increased festive buying. Silver too attracted heavy demand and rose smartly.

As Ganesh Chaturthi was fast approaching, demand for the precious metal had risen sharply during the last couple of days, traders said and added that firm overseas advices also aided the uptrend to some extent.

Standard gold shot up further by Rs. 40 to close at Rs. 4,550 (10 gm) from Rs 4,510.

Ready silver (.999 fineness), after a higher start at Rs. 7,230 a kg rose further to end at Rs. 7,240, displaying a smart rise of Rs. 60 over the last close of Rs.

John Doe

(08/18/2001; 23:43:58 MDT - Msg ID: 59906)

(No Subject)

test

John Doe

(08/19/2001; 01:28:49 MDT - Msg ID: 59907)

colourofmoney - Au vs. W

"So, there is my question. Does any one of the illuminated thinkers have any idea how widespread is the falsification of gold bullion by means of the metal tungsten that has the same density of gold ?" - colourofmoney

This question has occurred to me as well, and it's a good one. Though Au and W share densities within 0.26 of 1 percent, they are quite different in a number of respects.

Tungsten is whitish-gray in color, ~400 times more common than gold, has a much higher melting point, 3695 K for tungsten (highest of all the metals) vs. 1337 K for gold, and has a 2-3 times the resistivity of gold (which, combined with its high melting point, makes it a good light bulb filament).

I believe a coin cast from tungsten is one of the few base materials which would pass the Fisch tests, though the makers of the Fisch instrument indicate that, to their knowledge, no tungsten fake has ever been encountered. The simple reason is that tungsten is a very poor material for making fake coins. Unlike gold, which is highly malleable and ductile, tungsten is extremely hard yet brittle at room temperatures. The molds in a stamping machine would wear out after only a few cycles. It is almost impossible to mill, meaning each coin would have to be cast, and perfectly cast coins are hard to produce due to surface imperfections, air bubbles, etc.

Perhaps a simple test for a new batch of suspect gold coins would be to loosely wrap a random sample in a towel and bop it with a hammer against a hard surface. Due to its malleability, gold would take an indent or flatten slightly, but if tungsten is as brittle as the literature indicates, it would probably shatter, though I have no direct experience in this. Since the velocity of sound in tungsten is nearly 3 times that of gold (5174 m/s vs. 1740 m/s), a tungsten coin would make a noticeably different sound than a genuine gold coin when dropped on the table, sort of like the difference between pre- and post-1983 US pennies (some late 1982 and all 1983+ pennies are 97.5% zinc with a thin copper plating -- try it!). A sensitive volt-ohm meter should show a tungsten fake to have more resistance than a genuine gold coin.

If you're really worried about it, perhaps only purchase current production bullion from a dealer who deals directly with the US or Canadian mint. I believe I've seen a few listed on the Internet that do just that.View Yesterday's Discussion.

Zenidea

(08/19/2001; 02:14:07 MDT - Msg ID: 59908)

Upanishads paraphrased. The wise and the fool contrasted

Self rides in the chariot of the body,
Intellect the firm footed charioteer,
Discursive mind are the reins.
Sences are the horses, the objects of desire the roads.
He whom calls intellect to manage the REINS of his mind reaches the end of his Journey.
Above the sences are the objects of desire , above desire,
mind, above that intellect, above that nature, beyond that the secrets of seed, God does not proclaim himself , he is everbody's secret. ... . The wise man would loose his speech therefore in mind. Immmmm reminds me of the Cristian biblical philos ... the wise and the fool contrasted.
Yes as you said Sir M ; reined in.

Netking

(08/19/2001; 03:38:10 MDT - Msg ID: 59909)

Bio-Weapons Use Against Israel - Arafats next move?

According to a report in the PA's official newspaper, Al-Manar, Yasser Arafat is eyeing the possibility of developing and deploying biological weapons against Israel. The report in the paper bore this ominous title. "Will We Reach the Option of Biological Deterrence"? And it bears the imprimatur of the Palestinian Center for Information Sources - Gaza.

The report says that "serious thinking has begun a while ago about obtaining biological weapons." It goes on, "Due to the seriously uneven balance of power in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and in light of the escalation of the racist aggression, which elevates to the level of a war declaration by the Sharon government - the Palestinian side is required to use weapons of deterrence that will even the balance of power, at least in the field."

The report was translated into English by the Middle East Research Institute. Their website address is a treasure trove of information about what is really happening in the Middle East.

The report says that suicide bombers can be stopped by Israeli security. So instead something better is needed. It says biological weapons can be built without too much effort. And further that there are hundreds of experts who could manufacture them. In the PA's words, it would thus create "a balance of horror in the equation".

But is Arafat's official organization really talking about deterrence? The paper opins that "a few bombs or death carrying devices will be enough - once they are deployed in secluded areas, and directed at Israeli water sources. Let alone the markets and residential centers."

That doesn't sound like deterrence. It sounds like the decision to deploy has already been made. All that remains to be accomplished is to convince the man on the street. Because a biological weapon deployed against Israel knows no nationality. So Arafat is preparing his people for more martyrs. In advance.

The paper points out that "anyone who is capable, with complete self control", [of suicide bombing] "is equally capable of carrying a small device that cannot be traced and throwing it in the targeted location."

This may be Arafats next move. With the bio-weapon products "a dime a dozen", their ease to use & difficulty in detecting . . . it's an obvious temtation. The consequences do not need to be told should that happen with the accompanying loss of life . . .

SteveH

(08/19/2001; 05:18:52 MDT - Msg ID: 59910)

Interesting discussion of Canadian v US common law

regarding property rights (gold could be one example) and the fundamental right to self-defense.

In summary, Canada never broke completely away from the British whereas the US did, and put a document (the Constitution) in place that acts as a deterrant against the state usurping the authority that the British held over the colonists in both propererty and rights of self-defenses.

This is a repost (source unknown).

Gunner states: "Any official document that gives Canadians the right to bear arms is more than just an interesting conversation piece. The fact that it has never been rescinded is significant."

I applaud your sense of civil idealism. It is truly unfortunate the Canadian nation is not governed by idealists, particularly not civil ones. The Magna Carta has never been "rescinded" (it was to be in force "forever"). As a Canadian, do you have the right of property the Magna Carta prescribes?

The document Senator Cools refers to is the 1689 British Bill of Rights and it is hardly "official". It is over 300 years and NOT statute. It allowed for only "Protestants to arm themselves" and had limitations prescribed by law. Some 100 years later Sir William Blackstone (a liberal reform jurist), enumerated this to be a right of all commoners. Blackstone enumerated the basic core of a common individual's natural rights. He held these to be unassailable by men or their kings and governments. Among them was the absolute right to personal self-defense and the secondary right to be armed as a means to achieve this. These rights reflected a limitation of governing power over the individual that all King's and Common law courts should respect. He compiled these rights from different sources; Magna Carta, common-law judgment precedent, Saxon common-law and British judicial reform ideology. Blackstone's rights were the basis for the American constitution. It is of much greater significance to note that, although these rights were never "rescinded", American Colonists had to wage war to acquire a government which would recognize and protect them.

Where your hope for rights recognition falls down is that Canada has always been a crown colony operating under the British colonial act (a form of benign martial law). As such it's residents were never afforded the full common-law rights of British citizens unless they held title. Our law and law enforcement history reflects this "martial" law ethic. The "Crown" dictates only the civil liberties and "rights" which it is prepared to recognize. There is no such thing as natural individual rights in this relationship. Written or unwritten ALL Canadian legal rights can be denied or truncated by statute. Our modern statute law carries this ethic forward. We were "issued" a document which "charters" only the individual & collective rights which the "Crown" (now, Canadian state) is prepared to recognize. The state claims the ultimate "right" which is to repeal YOUR chartered rights at it sees fit (see Charter Sect. 1). This is a momentous departure from traditional British law ethics.

This is the sad state of control individual rights are under in Canada. Self protection and property ownership ARE self evident natural individual rights. It is incorrect and immoral for the state to claim these are collective rights (to be exercised only by the state in common trust for the greater good) Charter Section 1 is the "rights" killer. This gives the courts full leeway and authority to recognize or dismiss ANY right you think you may have. Their decisions have demonstrated they will favor the presumed collective power of the state (POGG) over the individual's natural rights and defer only to some fuzzy concept of group rights (minorities etc.)

In the present constitutional structure of Canada you would have an impossible job of convincing a state appointed judicial body that your firearms rights (given by an ancient unrecognized document) should be enforced. Particularly when this court is political in nature. You may want to look at sect. 26 of the charter for a key to a possible common-law rights argument however, the wording in this section is left purposely fuzzy.

I wish you (and Anne Cools) luck in attempting to get statist Canadian autocrats to recognize freedoms when they are under no such civil requirement (enforced by the people) to do so. You'd be right but, you'd be denied. I won't hold out hope for this type solution. As the US founders realized, if you wish to preserve and enjoy the freedoms Blackstone enumerated, you must be prepared to fight for them. Constant vigilance in the protection of these rights is required by ALL INDIVIDUALS in order to keep them. Canadians , historically, foolishly defer to "good government" dictates as bringing "peace and order". The lesson of history is; there is no such thing as "good government" where individual freedoms are concerned. This is a lesson Canadians never learned. All governments choose to rule not serve. All must be suspect. All must be closely watched. All must be MADE to serve not rule. In the end it is the individual who is responsible for protecting and claiming his own rights. Not courts nor protest groups nor governments. How much do YOU desire the freedom these rights bring YOU? What are YOU prepared to do to keep them.

SteveH

(08/19/2001; 05:19:58 MDT - Msg ID: 59911)

Interesting discussion of Canadian v US common law

BTW, what we do here at the forum is to protect our right to unmanipulated money and are also acting as a watchguard on our freedoms as affected by monies.

SteveH

(08/19/2001; 05:28:49 MDT - Msg ID: 59912)

Andrus

Interesting concept. Your thoughts point out that there are many variables to consider here. The idea that EU "unofficial" gold is being used is a good insight. The Washington Agreement (why this wasn't called the Berlin or Brussels agreement, I am not sure), would seem to control how much of this gold could be mobilized. One thing is certain is that the CBers (not in the context of the radio in common use in America) view physical gold much more differently than they do paper gold, probably because they probably never thought they would have to deliver the goods.

canamami

(08/19/2001; 08:16:51 MDT - Msg ID: 59913)

Steve H...I was saving that one

I started developing that argument about 4 years ago when doing some private research on parliamentary privilege, also found in the 1689 Bill of Rights, but was keeping it quiet in case I returned to private practice. (The medical society in one of the provinces wanted to discipline a Reform MP who is a doctor because he said in the House that homosexuality is an unhealthy lifestyle).

Without going in to detail, the 1689 argument would be rejected by the current Canadian Supreme Court (in Canada, under our extreme lib-leftist Supreme Court, law is a means of inflicting their ideology on the country). Invoking the 1689 Bill of Rights might be a good political tool, however.

Saxulum^

(08/19/2001; 08:57:39 MDT - Msg ID: 59914)

Benjamin Franklin: Paper Currency

http://odur.let.rug.nl/~usa/D/1726-1750/franklin/paper.htm
Benjamin Franklin
A Modest Enquiry into the Nature and Necessity of Paper Currency (1729)

[�]
Thus we have seen some of the many heavy Disadvantages a
Country (especially such a Country as ours) must labour under,
when it has not a sufficient Stock of running Cash to manage its
Trade currently. And we have likewise seen some of the Advantages
which accrue from having Money sufficient, or a Plentiful Currency.
[�]

Deja Vu? Interesting read for a sun(da)y afternoon. (see link)

And with some logical deduction this is clear evidence reincarnation exists!
Benjamin Franklin IS Alan Greenspan�. ;-)

Mr Gresham

(08/19/2001; 09:12:55 MDT - Msg ID: 59915)

Andrus, Steve H

A half-formed thought of the past two years, after reading much and understanding little about the internal politics of the Euro's formation:

Holding onto the physical gold outside of the ECB might do a nation little good, once the Euro system is underway. The nation has committed to the EC currency, made its contribution of gold capital, and might as well use its remaining physical to some current political end (serving -- or covering? -- the existing office-holders' ends). Any remaining physical might be pressed into service later by the larger "community", so why not enter it "poor" now, having spent it all?

How will nations within the Euro community "compete" with each other now, with so much of their finances conjoined? Perhaps by getting the gold into the hands of their citizens, as FOA tells us? Having the gold in private hands, and in the ECB, are the individual CBs seeing very little purpose -- and some risk -- in holding their own stashes anymore? (So much so that they had to make the WA to bind themselves to some restraint?)

tedw

(08/19/2001; 09:39:02 MDT - Msg ID: 59916)

Copper

http://www.usagold.comCopper:

At 51 I believed that nothing could surprise me anymore. I was wrong. I have just learned that pennies are no longer 100% copper, but are really copper coated zinc slugs.

I have lost all faith in mankind now.

Old Yeller

(08/19/2001; 10:39:01 MDT - Msg ID: 59917)

Monsters be there

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/GoldWorldNet/message/2074
What ever happened to government for the people,by the people.Sounds like the ESF in combination with the FED can freely intervene in not only domestic financial matters but international ones as well.Examples of unfettered power;

"In other words,the Fed warehousing arrangement allows the ESF to take a leveraged position in foreign assets that is not reflected on the ESF's balance sheet."

"Currency warehousing arrangements between the ESF and the Fed,provide the ESF with additional funding that circumvents the congressional appropriations process and statutory limits on Federal borrowing."

"the ESF,under the US treasury,is now routinely involved in efforts to stabilize currencies and to provide financial support for foreign countries."

"The Treasury can instruct the Fed to intervene on behalf of the ESF,but it cannot force the Fed to intervene on the Fed's own account."

Wow,talk about sweeping powers,contained in those four brief excerpts,the license to perform almost any kind of financial "operation" seems possible.Note that as an absolute,however,the Fed retains the final say in it's own operations.Wouldn't it be something if it all came down to that;in the crunch,the Fed and the ESF face off in a final showdown.

In the next message,#2075,there is a good commentary on our friends the BBs and related hedged miner dilemmas.

(08/19/2001; 11:39:34 MDT - Msg ID: 59918)

Gold As Collateral in Contracts

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/bolser082101.htmlThe above link inspired the following idea!

If EU has its way and forbids the use of gold as collateral in contracts, perhaps, people would issue Gold Certificates against their physical, and place the Certificates as collateral!

BR549

(08/19/2001; 12:30:40 MDT - Msg ID: 59919)

Value-based currencies

One of my ATR Neighbors has pointed out that there are more value-based currencies on the way. First Russia and now an agreement called the International Islamic Money Market (IIMM) consisting of gold and silver PM backed currencies.

The Fed is manipulating its paper into oblivion. If the United States, trapped in a quagmire of derivatives must liquidate our treasury to keep the banking system afloat, then we will indeed be the last country on Earth to allow PM based currencies. I maintain that the Fed has set upon a course to maintain the strength of the greenback at all costs to maintain $275/oz.+-. Putting PM's into the hands of the people via a value-based currency provides equilibrium in world currencies and removes the manipulative power of CB's. Of course, banksters hate that idea.

Again, if JT is wrong, why were SDR Certificates invented and oiquidated? Where have they gone? (down to 2,200 MM left) and do they represent a basket of SDR's or a claim on our physical gold?

If indeed the coffers of our national treasury are being drained, either physically or otherwise, then the only alternative that we as citizens have for hanging onto gold is to hoard it personally.

harold

(08/19/2001; 12:48:40 MDT - Msg ID: 59920)

commercial selling

I have a good friend who is a superb technical analyst. He is advisor to a handful of traders whose influence and trading bloc size can move markets. During our discussion on 8/17 I commented that I'm long gold. He likes it but refuses to trade the metal because as he put it "there is no integrity in the technicals of the market." We argued that point further, and he then added that the commercials are so hell bent on selling any rally he stays away and that anyone foolish enough to trade against these guys deserves whatever punishment is dished to them. (Commercials as a general rule of thumb are usually on the right side of any market.) We continued our debate and he finally admitted that if there was some news which was to break ie., supply and demand, war, etc. (SDR scandal) then the rally which would follow could be explosive. This coming from a very successful and extremely objective 'technician.' Just thought this interesting coming from one who has never heard of Turk or any of the issues discussed on this forum.

Black Blade

(08/19/2001; 13:24:02 MDT - Msg ID: 59921)

THE NEXT GAS CRISIS

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/magazine_items/2001/aug20_01_thenext.shtml
If you thought the worst was over, get ready. Demand is up, supply is dwindling, and new finds are scarce. Here's how to hedge against the price hikes to come If, like the vast majority of Canadians, you are dependent on natural gas to heat your home, ponder this thermostat-shattering truth for a moment. The largest natural gas find in Western Canada in the past 25 years is now playing out in a marshy area of northeastern BC near the Alberta border. Some analysts expect the Ladyfern field to gush about a trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas, which to a layman's ear might sound like a lot of burning power. But Ladyfern probably contains just enough fuel to heat all the gas-fired homes in Canada for a year or two at most. And it's a clear freak of nature. A typical new gas well, in fact, produces barely enough gas to heat 90,000 homes for a year.

Anyway you look at it, the glory days of cheap natural gas at $1.50 a gigajoule are over. Even though Canadian politicians may not be fretting as dramatically as President George W. Bush about future energy supplies and prices, they probably should be. Despite the stabilization of gas prices at about $4 a gigajoule (that's double the decade average), Canadian companies still can't find enough gas to keep. The whole demand-supply situation is so vulnerable that a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico or a terrorist attack, say, on the Alliance pipeline, which runs from northern BC through Alberta to Chicago, could abruptly send natural gas prices soaring back to the rude and shocking heights they reached last winter: US$10 a gigajoule. "Everything is in a crunch and has to be working 100%. We can't even afford too many plant turnarounds," says Woronuk a veteran Calgary gas analyst and one of the nation's independent natural gas watchdogs. "We are in a dangerous situation."

After last year's price shocker, things have changed dramatically. In fact, the natural gas market has grown quirkier and murkier, and is now complicated by an enormous demand backlash as industrial and residential gas users suddenly rediscover the born-again economics of energy conservation. But the essential facts remain the same. "We are still finding less gas and consuming more," notes Calgary-based Mike Sawyer, executive director of the Citizen's Oil and Gas Council. "The fundamentals haven't changed."

US analysts typically sum up the situation this way: "It's the geology, stupid." Alberta's richest gas fields are now mature and aging basins with little gas left. Ditto those in the US. New pools are smaller, and "new wells drilled today are exhibiting lower production rates and steeper decline rates," according to the EUB. "I'd like to see more reserves-that goes without saying," admits the EUB's top economist, Farhood Rahnama. "But the decline in reserves is just a fact of life." Meanwhile, the situation south of the border continues to grow bleaker. In spite of record drilling throughout the US, companies aren't finding much new gas in the dry plains of southern Texas or even the Gulf of Mexico. While the US Department of Energy predicts natural gas consumption will increase by 45% by 2015, in the past year, production has grown by barely 2%.

North America is still using more gas than it is finding. Concerted conservation drives and a softer economy may temporarily mask ever-dwindling supplies. A prolonged cold snap, though, could remind us of the reality sooner rather than later. You can count on rising prices to definitely affect your home and business heating bills-or your portfolio-early next year as natural gas abandons its image as a cheap staple and becomes, for better or worse, a premium good on the North American market

Black Blade: This is not news to us here. I have hit this issue over and over. We can expect an energy shortage of the likes never seen before. This "Perfect Storm" is brewing - it is visible for all to see - the time to prepare is now. However, most people are Ostriches, preferring to not look and bury their heads in the sand. The implications for economic and social upheaval are enormous. It is important that we look out for ourselves as no one else will look out for us. Unfortunately we can't store enough fuel for our own use, however, we can make other preparations. Prepare as you would if there were a natural disaster, you we to become unemployed (which is very likely under these energy crisis conditions), clear off debt, and defend your investment portfolio with defensive investments and hard assets (like gold and silver). The "linked" article is very good and it covers a lot of ground that we discussed here before. All of North America is at risk. We might have a temporary reprieve, however, I suspect that this storm will approach slowly ("The Slow Burn"). The means of addressing this problem simply do not exist, it is aggravated by government incompetence and environmental constraints, and therefore the coming "Perfect Storm" is inevitable. Regardless, if one is prepared for what may be, then one is happier as they can sleep well at night without that dang "sword" hanging over their heads. Definitely take time to read this article - it is a slow Sunday after all. Cheers!

harold

(08/19/2001; 13:34:21 MDT - Msg ID: 59922)

(No Subject)

CBS Marketwatch's Tom Calandra in his 8/17/01 piece makes for interesting reading and suggests the U.S. and Greenspan should not ignore reasoning behind gold-linked dollar. A couple of snippets: "Such a link, for example, could possibly allow the Fed Reserve to monitor the value of the dollar and then manage the supply of dollars on a minute by minute basis."...."If the dollar were to link to gold, perhaps at $325/oz., the ECB would be able to link to gold also, managing its balance sheet rather than worrying about short-term interest rates."

megatron

(08/19/2001; 14:21:29 MDT - Msg ID: 59923)

SteveH, and apologies to all

Great find on the status of the individual 'rights' of Canadians.
An apology for my beer fuelled rant late Fri night. A sober reflection showed it to be completely inappropriate for the standards and quality of writing and posting here.

Chris Powell

(08/19/2001; 14:36:45 MDT - Msg ID: 59924)

Some observations on Mike Kosares' brilliant Saturday night essay

Michael Kosares' Saturday night post was just
brilliant, much appreciated -- and ... stolen, for I
immediately distributed it to GATA's e-mailing list
of 1,500.

A few thoughts in response, for whatever they're
worth....

* GATA's consultants, James Turk and Mike Bolser,
are utterly convinced that the decrease in SDRs
credited to the ESF represents a decrease in
U.S. gold reserves. Our friend J.N. Tlaga believes
that it's just a matter of the ESF declining to
replace the SDRs used in the Mexican bailout. I'm
just the layman here with an interest in hoping
that Turk and Bolser are right. What the hell do I
know about the ESF and IMF books? But I know
one thing, having supervised GATA's letter-writing
campaign to Congress: Getting information out of
the Fed and the Treasury about U.S. gold policy is
like pulling teeth. They are hiding something from us.
I sense this from the incomplete and evasive replies
we receive, and from certain things that have happened
in our dealings with them. A year ago in May I sat
in the office of the speaker of the House and told
him we believed that the Exchange Stabilization
Fund was being used to suppress the gold price, and
I still think I'm right, even though we may not yet have
proved exactly how it is being done.

* Simple democracy and the accountability of
public institutions and public policy are the
bigger issues here. The economic policy of
the United States has to be PUBLIC policy,
but when it comes to the ESF and the IMF,
who really knows what it is? By law the ESF
isn't answerable to anyone, not even to Congress.

* GATA's consultants/investigators tell me they
have more good stuff coming. That and a buck will
buy you coffee -- it used to be only 50 cents -- but
it's some reason for us to hope.

* Mike writes that it's hard for him to believe that
the Treasury Department would be using the
ESF to circumvent Congress in regard to gold.
But that is exactly how the ESF was used to
bail out Mexico and the New York banks that
were on the hook to Mexico when Congress
wouldn't legislate a bailout. Maybe it's no matter;
I suspect that, however the gold price is being
suppressed by the U.S. government, it all has some
technical claim of legality. Remember Fed lawyer
Virgil Mattingly's comments at the January 31, 1995,
meeting of the FOMC; they were all about the legality
of government intervention in markets, including the
gold market. Indeed, the first thing GATA's Philadelphia
lawyers told us when we met in their lovely
conference room two years ago was that the Gold
Reserve Act of 1934 authorized the ESF to trade in
gold, even though the law's phrasing sounds a bit
antique today. Legality really isn't the point here --
simple disclosure of the policy and its implementation
is the point. If it is U.S. policy to suppress the gold
price, that should be PUBLIC policy. Then all of us
can have the benefit of that knowledge, not just
some insiders helping the government carry out
that policy surreptitiously. And then, of course, the
world can debate that policy and its consequences.

Anyway, Mike's essay was brilliant, I've sent it to
all the GATA people to read, and I was thrilled to find
that I was not the only one working late into a weekend
night on this issue.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

BR549

(08/19/2001; 14:43:58 MDT - Msg ID: 59925)

Thom Calandra, CBS MarketWatch

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BF2AC26CC%2DDC2E%2D4CA0%2DB07E%2DFA5805AFD332%7D&siteid=mktwHarold-

Here is the link if you would like to read about your earlier post.

I am going to have to stop saying all of those nasty things about that Condit lovin' empty suit Dan Rather if CBS continues this pro-gold reporting such as "The purchasing power of gold over history has been amazingly stable."

BR549

(08/19/2001; 15:10:48 MDT - Msg ID: 59926)

SDR's or SDR Certificates?

Chris Powell (msg#: 59924)

Welcome back! Since your are here I have a few questions for GATA.

Powell-"GATA's consultants, James Turk and Mike Bolser, are utterly convinced that the decrease in SDRs credited to the ESF represents a decrease in U.S. gold reserves."

Turk-"But I have learned enough about the SDR to conclude why the accounting of the US Gold Reserve does not appear to have changed. This mystery can be solved by first solving a second mystery, the case of the disappearing SDR Certificates."

Turk-" "�0.888671 gram of fine gold shall be equivalent to one special drawing right." That means 35 SDR's equals one ounce of gold. So the US has the potential obligation as of December 2000 � if required to make good on SDR's issued � to pay to the IMF or its members 182.4 million ounces of gold, some 69.7% of the US Gold Reserve."

If I read Mr. Turk's chart correctly, it seems that the SDR Holdings and SDR Allocations have declined very little. The SDR Certificates have declined from 9,200 to 2,200. SDR's are defined by the IMF as valued at 1.28US$ per SDR. So what is the real value of an SDR. In gold weight or U$ dollars based on a weighted basket of the world's currencies? What links do these ESF SDR's have to these SDR Certificates? And then what link to actual physical gold?

It is a pleasure to read your posts here and keep up the good work at GATA. I found that when I lived in DC, the name of the game in selling computers to the Feds was unrelenting persistence. If what the Fed is doing is legitimate, then you'll eventually get your answers, if you can find the right MC to pay attention. If its illegitimate (where my bet is), then Alan G. will probably feel it is time for him to retire.

Chris Powell

(08/19/2001; 15:47:24 MDT - Msg ID: 59927)

Reply to BR549

I probably should have said that James
Turk believes that the reduction in
the ESF's SDRs represents an encumbrance
of the U.S. gold reserves. There may be
plenty of gold at Fort Knox and all the
right places; the question is whether the
gold there really belongs to the United
States or has been swapped or put in
jeopardy in some way, as we have reason
to believe. My best guess is that the
U.S. has made promises payable in gold
that are not yet public.

CoBra(too)

(08/19/2001; 15:48:05 MDT - Msg ID: 59928)

MK & Chris Powell -

Only had time to skim the last couple of days posts I've now really read MK's essay and your (C.P) response.

In the end the conclusions re defending the US$ (or better its reserve status hegemony) only differ in the question: Has the US already used up most all defences re its gold reserve being encumbered by SDR swaps as James Turk and Mike Bolser insinuate, or is MK's guess that the US gold reserves may still be intact, correct?

Interesting, to say the least, since both postulations - and as such they have been seemingly offered - have circumstantial merit. As random examples the history of the (London) Gold Pool US gold dumpings, the evasive answers to Gata a/o congressional queries ... seem to favor the J.T arguments, while reason and logic may favor MK's "arguments", but who says reason has a place this season.

Though, now it's coming down to one question, who, what and why should anyone want to come to the rescue of the $, as it becomes clear the consumer of the last resort is in jeopardy of defaulting his own pyramiding debt scheme - with or without his nations gold encumbered?

The FOMC Meeting on Tues. Aug. 21., while everyone bets on another cut, has AG in a pickle, since all his cuts so far haven't brought the desired economic effects, he might as well forget per(de?)ception and go back to hard monetary facts.
Thanks for your thoughts on an ongoing debate, no discussion as the confusion never ends - friends. cb2

Netking

(08/19/2001; 16:49:26 MDT - Msg ID: 59929)

A real 'no bull' deal

http://www.smh.com.au/news/0108/20/biztech/biztech8.htmlSnippit:
One of New York's most famous hotels is offering business travellers a way to cut costs by linking the cost of a room to the closing price of the Dow Jones sharemarket index.

The New Yorker in Manhattan is offering a "no bull" deal that slices the cost of a room if the stockmarket falls. If the Dow Jones drops between 50 and 100 points on the day they arrive, guests can knock $US10 ($18) off the bill for each day of their stay.

Should the market fall by 200 points, that's a $US20-a-day saving. And if the market plunges by 1,000 points, eager-to-please general manager Mr Barry Mann offers what he calls the "high-floor, open-window" option.

"It is 1929 all over again," he said. "If the market loses 10 per cent in a day, I'll show them to the window and let them jump." . . .

Canuck

(08/19/2001; 18:16:51 MDT - Msg ID: 59930)

@ megatron

Your sympathies accepted.

I'll still bring the camcorder.

Canuck

(08/19/2001; 18:26:29 MDT - Msg ID: 59931)

@ BB

Very quickly, a simple question.

If natural gas has just gone through a major exploration and cash infusion and production has increased by 2% how is the NG situation going to be contained for any length of time? My bet is that this serious dilemma won't last 3 years.

Cavan Man

(08/19/2001; 18:44:10 MDT - Msg ID: 59932)

Nikkei

Off 175.

site steward

(08/19/2001; 19:04:18 MDT - Msg ID: 59933)

Special Drawing Rights as assets and liabilites... for BR549

BR549, in your Saturday message (#59859), you raised a question about my explanation of the Treasury Department's accounting of SDR holdings and monetization operations with the Fed.

Specifically, against my expression that SDR allocations according to IMF quotas are held by the Treasury as both liabilities and assets, whereas any additional accumulations of SDRs are added only to the asset side of the ledger, you protested, "You cannot add an asset to any balance sheet regardless of the source, without adding a corresponding liability."

Given your comment, it seems that you have forgotten to allow for the fact that the items we are focusing on here are just a small portion of an overall financial statement. To be sure, I stand by the accuracy of my Friday description of the accounting of SDR allocations and the accounting of additional SDR holdings (as adjusted by outstanding Certificates).

However, I unnecessarily complicated the issue with my larger attempt to offer historical perspective as part of my overview of the SDR accounting protocol. My apologies.

Here it is in simple form. The Treasury may monetize SDRs -- up to the level of its total SDR holdings -- by issuing to the Fed the corresponding value that it needs in the form of SDR Certificates. And according to the latest numbers, the value of total SDR holdings that are currently encumbered through monetization is $2.2 billion. That is to say, the Treasury has at this moment presented to the Federal Reserve $2.2 billion in SDR Certificates against which the Fed has credited the Treasury Department's account with $2.2 billion in spendable funds.

The Fed achieves this monetization by accepting (it has no choice in the matter) these Certificates as assets on the Fed's balance sheet, against which it creates dollars (booked as a Fed liability) for the Treasury. And as revealed by the table of historical data assembled by James Turk, the Treasury has in the past two and a half years reversed the process to DEmonetize its SDR holdings by $7 billion -- retracting its outstanding Certificate value held by the Fed from $9.2 billion to its current level of $2.2 billion. The whirlwind of speculation over this activity centers around the reason for the demonetization. My two cents were offered Friday.

Looking again specifically at the Treasury's books, the total holdings of all SDRs received through various means are part of the Treasury's asset account. Only that portion of SDRs that were received (at no cost) according to the IMF's allocation quota does double duty -- appearing also on the Treasury's liability account. The reason for this is that it is only this allocated portion of the total SDR value that our nation is liable to return to the IMF in the event that participation in the SDR program is terminated for one reason or another.

Does this elaboration adequately clarify the matter in question?

R.

Gandalf the White

(08/19/2001; 20:04:35 MDT - Msg ID: 59934)

NIKKEI hits new LOW !

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010819/t21451.htmlTOKYO, Aug 20 (Updates to late morning)(Reuters) - Tokyo stocks were trading softer at near 17-year lows by late morning on Monday, weighed down by dips in Toshiba Corp and other major technology issues amid jitters over their bottom lines and weakness in their U.S. peers.

Banks are selling actively ahead of September book closings. We can't see the bottom for the U.S. economy, and the yen is a major concern,'' said Kunihiro Hatae, general manager at Tokai Tokyo Securities' equities trading division.

The Nikkei slid as low as 11,239.45 earlier, its lowest point since November 27, 1984 when it closed at 11,184.12. The tech-sensitive yardstick has lost more than 70 percent since it scored a record high in December 1989, widely seen as the peak of Japan's asset-inflated bubble economy.
----
<;-(

BR549

(08/19/2001; 20:46:39 MDT - Msg ID: 59935)

Special Drawing Rights as assets and liabilites..

site steward (msg#: 59933)

R., although you know I hate to research, I did try to find where this event occurred of an entry on the Asset side without a corresponding entry on the liabilities side. If you are speaking of an adjustment to an Asset that breaks down an Asset into its components and shows deductions for sub-totals, then that does not meet the definition of adding an asset without a corresponding liability.

R.-"Given your comment, it seems that you have forgotten to allow for the fact that the items we are focusing on here are just a small portion of an overall financial statement. To be sure, I stand by the accuracy of my Friday description of the accounting of SDR allocations and the accounting of additional SDR holdings (as adjusted by outstanding Certificates)."

The latest financial statement (partial) from the Federal Reserve reflects the following balance sheet entries (H.4.1: Release):

STATEMENT OF CONDITION TOTAL ON August 15, 2001 Millions of dollars:
Assets
Gold certificate account 11,044
Special drawing rights certif. acct. 2,200

Upon looking at the Latest Fed Reserve Balance sheet, Under liabilities for Fed Reserve Notes I see:
Liabilities
Gold certificate account 11,044
Special drawing rights certificate acct. 2,200

R.-"Looking again specifically at the Treasury's books, the total holdings of all SDR's received through various means are part of the Treasury's asset account. Only that portion of SDRs that were received (at no cost) according to the IMF's allocation quota does double duty -- appearing also on the Treasury's liability account."

I can believe that SDR's added to a balance sheet can be both assets and liabilities-the total then balances because there is a risk that should be reflected on both sides of the balance sheet.

Not that I am doubting you, but please provide me a sheet like H.4.1 where Treasury (or FED) balance financial statements show where these portion of SDR's (that were received by any means) are represented as Asset only entries without a corresponding entry for Liabilities. It looks as though Assets do equal Liabilities on the Fed's books. I cannot find a balance sheet similar to the Fed's most recent for the Treasury that shows this "one sided accounting" for "SDR's received from non-IMF sources".

I read JT's theory and I understand that this is one of his main contentions. But when an entry is added to any balance sheet on one side of the ledger, without a corresponding entry on the other side of the ledger, won't the Assets = Liabilties + Equities(not gov)= NOT be the same amount?

Maybe I am misunderstanding how this works and I agree with your summation of JT's theory. I don't think you are wrong in your summation of what he contends, and I agree with most of JT's theory, but this portion of his theory doesn't balance in my books.

If you and JT agree on this point, then I am probably wrong. I know you are a better researcher than I am so please help me find this documentation where I can see the total picture.

Thanks and I appreciate your input.

By the way your history summation was very good.

sector

(08/19/2001; 20:55:16 MDT - Msg ID: 59936)

@site Steward About the "Whirlwind of Speculation"

The IMF definitions are extremely simple to read and interpret. Jim Turk has done a marvelous job revealing that SDRs and SDR Certificates are claims against physical gold that do not have liabilities. Hoping won't change official IMF definitions. Either an SDR IS or IS NOT an asset without a liability. An SDR or an SDR Certificate is or IS NOT a valid claim against physical gold.

There is absolutely zero speculation when an SDR or an SDR Certificate is sold. It is sold. The buyer has obtained the "unconditional right to draw physical gold (if they desire) from IMF members since he or she possesses an SDR or an SDR Certificate.

Until IMF documentation is presented that refutes this fundamental fact, the only speculation is on the part of folks that are still in denial regarding many aspects of the gold manipulation effort.

I read with interest your disbelief regarding the sale of substantial portions of the US gold reserves "Without Congressional approval". I am the person that brought to light the change in designation of 1,700 tonnes of West Point gold. The SDR activity is consistent with this designation change. The word "custodial" means custodial. The gold reserves at West Point have been sold. A non-US entity now owns a valid claim against it. To take the position that that gold is still an asset of the US is to strain credulity.

Perhaps it is easy for me to believe this activity since I also am the author of a sophisticated fraud detection software---Preemptive Selling. This analysis conclusively shows COMEX irregularities. Once one visits a financial crime scene such as this, one gets attuned to a whole new lexicon and landscape---the language and domain of manipulators.

It will become easy for skeptics if they remain open minded about things in the gold manipulation arena. Indeed, GATA has gained enormous credibility over the months as each new revelation has corroborated their position. Clawar and myself on the technical specifics of COMEX manipulated trading patterns. Turk, on the first set of "gold swap" discussions revealed in the FOMC minutes. Myself and Dave Walker (as reported by Howe) finding the "swap puts" as an instrument of gold price suppression also in the FOMC minutes. And this weekend's finding of IMF duplicity in their gold dealings---dealings they officially deny. Each new finding supports in an ever tightening web the central assertion of GATA---that a large international cartel is involved in the biggest scandal of manipulation in American history.

One cannot read the Howe filing through and not be impressed. Of course, if one hasn't read the filing I can understand their skepticism.

Netking

(08/19/2001; 21:05:51 MDT - Msg ID: 59937)

Gandalf the White - Japan

GTW(59934). . . wait & See what happens when the Japanese banks finally have to disclose their massive paper derivative losses.

Black Blade

(08/19/2001; 22:00:24 MDT - Msg ID: 59938)

RE: Canuck and Natural Gas

Canuck: "If natural gas has just gone through a major exploration and cash infusion and production has increased by 2% how is the NG situation going to be contained for any length of time? My bet is that this serious dilemma won't last 3 years."

My guess is that it won't. As critical as natural gas is and with new construction of NG-fired power plants coming online, then it is a no brainer that this energy crisis will hit hard. I think that it will sneak up slowly (The Slow Burn) as no one but the truly inform will notice until it is way too late. Actually it is too late now. The economy teeters on the edge and the energy crisis is the final kick that pushes the economy over the edge. It will require a huge exploration program with excessive world-class discoveries to provide enough "Cheap Energy" to pull the economy out of recession. Consider that we are currently in a recession and a few unusual events such as mild weather and conservation have held natural gas prices temporarily in check. Consider that demand continues to increase even in the current economic climate. When winter arrives as usual we can expect to see a huge demand increase. Also consider that no one in the industry can explain the recent sudden sharp drop in NG injection rates. Actually I and many others in the industry think that the previous injection rate data were grossly overstated (on purpose or otherwise). Who says that the Gold market has a monopoly on manipulated markets? So goes the Bull Market economy as we have come to know it, now shake hands with the Bear. Hey, if AG raises rates again, many will question what is wrong? Is the economy really that bad? My answer is yes. Go for the Gold while it's still cheap. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(08/19/2001; 22:05:54 MDT - Msg ID: 59939)

Asian Markets Back In Crash Mode!

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asian markets continue to collapse tonight. This is just a continuation of the downward spiral. Rumors continue to make the rounds that a couple of major Japanese banks are about to become insolvent. The other rumor is that the Japanese government is still trying to prop up the Nikkei with little success. There has been talk that the Japanese may be looking to get out of USD denominated issues and put their proceeds elsewhere. We shall see how this shakes out. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(08/19/2001; 22:28:05 MDT - Msg ID: 59940)

More mine closures to erode gold production

http://www.smh.com.au/news/0108/20/biztech/biztech7.html
Snippit:

The decline of Australia's $5 billion gold industry is set to accelerate over the next 12 months as gold exploration fails to keep pace with the high rate of production in recent years, a leading industry group has warned. Melbourne mining consultants Surbiton Associates said that in the next year the amount of gold production lost to mine closures would be greater than production from new discoveries. "The Australian gold-mining industry has done a remarkable job in maintaining overall gold output in the past few years," Surbiton Associates director Dr Sandra Close said. "However, you cannot defy gravity forever and closures over the next year will begin to bite."

Black Blade: Aussie Mines are not the only one set to close. Gold Quarry (Newmont) in the US is closed or set to close soon. Others including Barrick and AngloGold are rumored to be considering US mine closures. Placer Dome's Getchell may close if Gold prices don't recover soon. Looks like a lot of gold production will be taken off the table. Once closed, forget about US mines reopening.

Black Blade

(08/19/2001; 23:05:46 MDT - Msg ID: 59941)

Markets Look Very Ugly Tonight

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
US market futures sliding fast, Asian markets are getting thoroughly slaughtered, and even gold dips. Didn't someone make a prediction that the markets or USD would crash today? So far, tomorrow is shaping up to be a disaster on Wall Street. Maybe the Working Groups on Financial Markets will step in before the open and prop er' up.

MarkeTalk

(08/19/2001; 23:53:18 MDT - Msg ID: 59942)

Black Blade; Crashing Markets

www.larouchepub.com/other/2001/2828 chervonetz.htmlI posted on August 1st that a Russian economist, Tatyana Koryagina, predicted the U.S. financial system and hence, the U.S. Dollar would begin to crash on August 19th. You can read the entire article at www.larouchepub.com and click on the article "Bush and Dollar to Crash." I mentioned also that August 19th fit the scenario which veteran market watcher, Steve Puetz, had predicted earlier in his newsletter, The Steve Puetz Letter. August 19th just happens to the new moon just after the lunar eclipse which some market watchers attribute to a very high degree of accuracy when it comes to market crashes. The 1987 stock market crash occurred after a similar set-up. The markets could go in the tank tomorrow, as no one (except us cycle watchers) are expecting anything bad to happen until at least late September/early October.

While on this subject, I fully expect the Israeli conflict to escalate as we get into the Jewish holy days of Rosh HaShanah (September 18th) and Yom Kippur (September 28th). We could see an all-out assault against the Palestinians. Ariel Sharon just got the center party to join his coalition which gives him a majority of the Knesset to back him if he decides to clean out the Palestinian terrorist and suicide bombers. It makes no difference anymore if Shimon Peres threatens to leave the coalition, and this change in the political landscape has just opened the door for a pre-emptive strike by Israel. You can read more at David Dolan's excellent website: www.ddolan.com

Black Blade

(08/20/2001; 00:01:52 MDT - Msg ID: 59943)

RE: MarkeTalk

Indeed - "Interesting Times"

Golden Dreams All!

- Black BladeView Yesterday's Discussion.

Black Blade

(08/20/2001; 00:14:05 MDT - Msg ID: 59944)

Asian Markets Still Crashing!

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
A quick post before I too crash for the evening.

Note to Nikkei and Hang Seng: "Last one to go sub 11,000 is a rotten egg."

Netking

(08/20/2001; 00:45:18 MDT - Msg ID: 59945)

MarkeTalk

Sir MarkeTalk, Your posts continue to be ones that I read & re-read always getting much from them, thanks.

Old Yeller

(08/20/2001; 01:36:37 MDT - Msg ID: 59946)

Mr.Gresham's law

http://www.lewrockwell.com/blumert/blumert35.html
File under misplaced assumptions or blatant propaganda;

"The experts said the "sandwiches" would circulate side-by-side with the silver coins for an eternity"

Sure they would,just as the gold price would fall when the gold window closed.That's because gold is an obsolete monetary relic and modern financial instruments would carry the day.Got some more neat stories for us?

Amazing,the same old'same old;thirty years down the line.The key question is,just how much bigger is web of deceit and skullduggery this time around?

Pull up the lawn chair,relax and watch the show.

SteveH

(08/20/2001; 01:55:15 MDT - Msg ID: 59947)

repost

http://www.supremelaw.org/wwwboard/messages/1175.htmlthis is a repost!

WE MAY NEVER SEE A RETURN TO GOLD AND SILVER

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[ Follow Ups ] [ Post Followup ] [ Supreme Law Firm Discussion Forum ] [ FAQ ]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by Paul Andrew Mitchell, B.A., M.S. on July 15, 1998 at 13:17:17:

In Reply to: WE MAY NEVER SEE A RETURN TO GOLD AND SILVER posted by Shane Hanson on July 13, 1998 at 19:13:17:

: I am posting a message here because after having read a large number of the postings and replys I beleive that many of you are very knowledgable on the subject of restoring our constitutional government. I will accept any and all replys weather posted here or sent to me via e-mail.

: I would especially like a reply from Paul Mitchel as I believe he is one of the more knowledgeable persons in these matters.

: Also feel free to copy and send this message to any one who may have a solution and have them respond to my e-mail address TruthZone1@aol.com

: Now the problem,

: I have been studying for quite some time now on the reestablishing of our constitutional government. I have found that what I beleive to be the root cause of the decay of our freedoms (out side of multiple acts of corupt men) I beleive it to be our present standard or system of money, brought about by various acts since the 14th ammendment.

: In The Constitution of the United States Artic1e 1 Section 10 it states that the only way to discarge debt is with gold and silver. So if I use a federal reseve note to buy an item, food, the debt for that item is not paid. When the circle of who owes, for the item purchased, is complete it is me that still owes for that item. I am then bound (enslaved) to discarge that debt lawfully (with gold or silver).

: And so begins the problem,
: Lets say by some chance I do obtain gold or silver for a service I provided. You cannot purchase gold or silver with federal reserve notes as you will still owe for it. Now if I decide to use it no one is willing to take it as payment. I am forever stuck having to purchase my food with a debt and there by enslaved.

: I know there is a solution ALL of america must once again start mining gold or silver and using it to pay debt and buisnesses must once again start accepting gold or silver for debt. But I see no possibility of this

: The question is how in all the wide universe am I to remove this horific burden. Untill we/I/you are able to pay debts in gold or silver we/I/you are slaves. No freedom or liberty or justice for all.
: HELP!!! HELP!!! HELP!!! HELP!!! HELP!!! HELP!!!

: I do hope everyone see were I am coming from on this it is in my opinion the single most impotant area that need to be dealt with before any of us can reestablish our freedoms.

Assume for the moment that the Congress can be
persuaded to face the cruel facts, and to abolish
the federal income tax completely (because those
tax revenues are not paying for ANY government
services whatsoever) and replace it with nothing
at all (not even a national sales tax). Where
does this action leave us, as a nation and as an
economy?

The answer is important and also difficult,
because of the economic complexities that were
introduced by the Federal Reserve System.

In the book entitled "The Federal Zone,"
the IRS and the Federal Reserve Banks are
likened to two pumps, working in tandem: the
banks pump money and credit INTO the economy,
and the IRS pumps (sucks?) money and credit
OUT of the economy. The real economic reason
for having an IRS, in its present configuration,
is to maintain the purchasing power of Federal
Reserve Notes. If FRN's were allowed to flood
the marketplace, without a counter-balancing
force to remove them from the marketplace, we
would experience the very same hyper-inflation
which plagued Germany after World War I.

Thus, it is clear that, to stop this essential
connection, the two pumps must be stopped
at approximately the same time.

Only a very few, quite brave Americans have had
enough courage and insight to face a solution
which may not be too obvious to those who are
less educated about monetary systems, and
monetary fraud. This solution is, very simply,
that the foreign banks who have extracted immense
wealth from America, via the federal income tax,
must now "eat" the Treasury Bonds which they
purchased with money they created out of thin
air, quite literally.

Remember, the FRB pays Printing and Engraving
less than 3 cents per FRN, REGARDLESS OF THE
DENOMINATION on each FRN. Then, FRB obtains
a legal lien on collateral equal to the face
value of the FRN, PLUS INTEREST. Thus, for
a total cost of 3 cents ($0.03), FRB gets to
collect about $107.50 from our economy
(assuming 7.5% interest on a $100 FRN).
This much leverage is obviously unjust
enrichment, because the $0.03 "cost" is
also created out of thin air.

The crucial connection which must be recognized
is that FRN's do not get created now, until and
unless the debt ceiling is raised. Put in
simpler words, FRN's do not get created, until
and unless more Treasury Bonds are sold, and
FRB gets preferential treatment on the purchase
of such bonds.

Thus, to break the cycle of monetary fraud,
cash must be created without also increasing
the federal debt, without also authorizing
the issuance and sale of additional Treasury
Bonds, and without also increasing inflation.

Remember, higher prices are not the "cause"
of inflation; higher prices are the "effect"
of inflation, which is defined to be a
disproportionate increase in the money supply,
relative to the amount of goods and services
being exchanged.

The solution which JFK devised, was to authorize
the printing of "U.S. Notes" (the ones with the
distinctive "red dot" Treasury emblem). Some
believe that it was this action, among others,
which cost JFK his life.

U.S. Notes were a straightforward solution to
eliminating the connection between cash creation
and debt ceiling increases. JFK's U.S. Notes
were NOT created at the expense of additional
debts payable to foreign banks, via the
Treasury Bonds which would normally have been
sold to those banks. Despite the obvious risks
inherent in this solution, it remains a viable
one, whether or not those U.S. Notes are
actually redeemable. Please defer, for the
moment, the question of redemption.

The main advantage which U.S. Notes have over
Federal Reserve Notes, is that the former have
no interest expense attached to them, whereas
the latter do have an interest expense attached
to them (in addition to the problem of the
FRB's huge leverage, discussed above).

Another, quite similar solution is to issue
"Silver Bonds" which are Treasury Bonds which
are only redeemable in silver substance, at their
maturity date. A proposal was made last year to
issue Silver Bonds with 1-, 2-, and 3-year
maturities, and interest rates slightly above
market rates. This program would be coupled
with an aggressive federal government program
to mint large numbers of silver dollars (not
the "clad" coins we currently use). Those
individuals and companies who had raw silver
to sell to the Bureau of Engraving and Printing,
would be paid in bank credit, Silver Bonds, or
U.S. Notes, but NOT in FRN's.

The other aspect of this program would be to
recall Federal Reserve Notes on a one-to-one
basis with new U.S. Notes, "over-the-counter"
(i.e. no bank accounts, cash transaction reports,
or SSN's required). FRN's would be treated as
"bearer bonds" (for those of you who know the
meaning of that term).

Once the silver coin production is ramped up,
Congress can deliver on its promise to redeem
Silver Bonds when they mature. Later, as the
supply of FRN's dwindles and the corresponding
supply of U.S. Notes increases, Congress would
be asked to phase in a redeemable U.S. Note,
in a fashion which eases the transition to a
redeemable currency. Silver bonds would be
very attractive investments for public agencies,
like state governments and their political
subdivisions. At maturity, of course, Silver
Bonds could be used to purchase more Silver Bonds.
The quantity of Silver Bonds to be issued, would
be controlled by the amount of silver dollars
to be minted; clearly, this is the kind of
determination which Congress has constitutional
authority to make.

The major problem which must be solved, under
this new national policy, is the massive "skew"
which is present in the substantive equivalent
of the FRN. One silver "dollar" today buys
about seven (7) Federal Reserve Notes. As
long as the FRN circulates, and as long as such
a skew exists, people will be better off to
trade their silver for FRN's, because they
get 7 FRN's for each silver dollar. Obviously,
if you are buying milk and bread, you are much
better off to be holding FRN's, because you
have SEVEN TIMES as much purchasing power
as you would have by holding silver, in the
same "nominal" amounts. ("Nominal" here means
"face value"). Forcing people to exchange
FRN's for silver, in nominal amounts, results
in stealing huge amounts of money from the
people who possess those FRN's. That is the
major reason why U.S. Notes are printed --
to moderate the FRN's inevitable devaluation
to zero.

Thus, the withdrawal of FRN's from the entire
economy represents a massive, one-time
economic adjustment which must occur.

The proper place for an open and candid
discussion of the consequences, would be
the committee which conducts hearings on
the legislation that must be enacted, for
this program to go into effect.

Without more study, it is impossible to be
exact about the magnitude and distribution
of "damages." But, take this one example:
John Doe is persuaded to spend $100 FRN's
on a silver bond, which matures at, say, 5%
in one year. One year later, he gets $105 in
silver dollars. He then turns around
and exchanges them for $735 in FRN's (because
the FRN's are still circulating at 7-to-1).

Then, he goes to the counter of his friendly
local bank, and exchanges the FRN's for
U.S. Notes, one-for-one. Clearly, this is
not the kind of "appreciation" which Congress
would, or should, intend. Conversely, if the
exchanges flow in the opposite direction, Congress
should never "force" such a massive devaluation
in the common man's purchasing power. The
federal income tax has already done enough of
that, for the past 85 years!! The new national
"policy" is to keep the money in our country.

Putting a future "kill" date on the FRN only
aggravates the problem I have described above,
because people will not be able to "defer"
their decisions after that deadline. As of
a particular date, the FRN is officially
worthless. This "kill" date must also be
coordinated with legislation which dishonors
the Treasury Bonds which foreign banks now
own (i.e. we must shut off both pumps at
approximately the same time).

Clearly, if the Silver Bond solution is adopted,
the maturity dates on these bonds also need to be
carefully coordinated with the deadline for
total withdrawal of the Federal Reserve Note.
FRN's can be used to purchase Silver Bonds;
or FRN's can be traded for U.S. Notes,
"over the counter" and "one-for-one" at
all participating banks (read "all banks"
by law). To illustrate, the ramp-up in minting
of silver coins should begin BEFORE the first
Silver Bond matures, and enough silver dollars
must be warehoused to cover all Silver Bonds
which may get redeemed. By law, I would require
100% of all Silver Bonds to be redeemable,
on demand, as proof of the good faith and
credit of the United States (federal government)
under this new program.

Now, assuming that the U.S. Treasury Dept.
can develop bank and consumer regulations
which smooth this important transition, what
are the real political ramifications?

The answer to that question falls squarely on
the willingness of wealthy foreign banks to
tolerate the huge amount of debt they must eat,
as a result of implementing this solution.

Dr. Edwin Vieira has confronted this problem,
in his essay "Return to Constitutional Money,"
and concluded that these foreign banks should
be given no choice in the matter: either eat
the debt, or face criminal racketeering charges.

There are many educated Americans who fear that
these foreign banks would choose instead to wage
an overt war against America, rather than forego
all this future revenue. The federal government
must face this possibility realistically, and
treat any such threats as nothing less than an
expression of treasonous intent to invade our
shores. A policy of peaceful transition must
be clarified by the Congress, and our loyal
military must be alerted to the probability
of foreign invasion during this period of
transition.

Indeed, the foreign invasion appears already
to have begun, under auspices of U.N. command.
The United Nations is controlled by the very
same foreign banks who now hold massive numbers
of U.S. Treasury Bonds slated for dishonor.

I don't want to get too "far out" with a
discussion of probable future scenarios.
However, it is essential to understand that
the foreign banks who presently hold Treasury
Bonds, must face a future in which those
Bonds are destroyed, because it is the new
policy of the United States (federal government)
to dishonor bonds which were acquired by means
of fraud and racketeering by foreign banks,
particularly if the real leverage of their
"scheme" is in a ratio of $107.50-to-$0.03!

I assume you all have calculators to do your
own computation of this ratio.

Sincerely yours,

/s/ Paul Andrew Mitchell

Netking

(08/20/2001; 03:48:01 MDT - Msg ID: 59948)

Fujitsu to cut 16,400 jobs

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1499000/1499971.stmSnippit:
Japanese chip and PC giant Fujitsu has unveiled a restructuring plan which will see 16,400 jobs go, two-thirds of them outside Japan, to counteract the global slump in demand for technology . . . "

Netking

(08/20/2001; 04:01:22 MDT - Msg ID: 59949)

Fed Meeting May Leave Stocks Cold - (Capital Flight To Come)

http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=businessnews&StoryID=167800Snippit:
". . . Foreigners own a substantial amount of our securities, and if the dollar starts to weaken, they're going to worry about depreciation of value, and they're going to sell to try to avoid that," Herrmann said. "Or ... they may start to withdraw from additional purchases, both of which put pressure on our equity and fixed-income markets . . . "
-----------------------------------------------------------
As we've been saying, EXPECT a "capital flight" when the dollar "really" starts to drop, as it will. - Netking

Black Blade

(08/20/2001; 05:54:27 MDT - Msg ID: 59951)

European Markets All Red

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
European Markets have followed the Asian Markets into the red. However, the US Market indices have staged a "surprising" turnaround into positive territory in the last hour. "Interseting"

Black Blade

(08/20/2001; 06:24:09 MDT - Msg ID: 59952)

Dollar drop nears danger point

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B577F4AD4%2D9920%2D4CCF%2DAEFB%2DAEE72225A1E5%7D&siteid=mktw
Snippit:

"Once currency traders pick up on any hint that the U.S. is no longer pursuing its firm currency policy, they will open the gates for a dollar decrease, which would be precipitated by hedge funds, asset managers and speculators," said Ashraf Laidi, chief currency analyst at MG Financial group, in a recent note to clients. The exit from a currency so plentiful, and held mostly overseas -- only about 30 percent is held safely within the U.S., Laidi noted -- will not be smooth and orderly like a fire drill. Bullies in the world's biggest playground have no respect for teachers and their whistles when money is involved.

Black Blade: We shall see. Could get "Interesting."

Black Blade

(08/20/2001; 06:29:40 MDT - Msg ID: 59953)

The Great Depression vs. the Millennial Slowdown

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/aug2001/nf20010820_857.htm
Snippit:

It's easy to dismiss the parallels between then and now as superficial, but the similarities still ring with unsettling echoes

Black Blade: Give it time. Interesting review of history.

R Powell

(08/20/2001; 06:52:12 MDT - Msg ID: 59954)

Dollar drop nears danger point

Black Blade If and when the world currency traders decide to sell dollars in mass, the electronic trading system will provide the means for an almost instantaneous move. I don't believe even the combined efforts of the ESF will be able to do anything other than "soften" the shift.
A.G. and his buddies meet again this week. Can the dollar withstand more weakening (lower rates)? I see the $ hold or sell decision as comparable to a cliff in that some certain amount of sell orders may trigger a mass exodus. Perhaps another half point? this week?
Rich

BR549

(08/20/2001; 07:51:47 MDT - Msg ID: 59955)

Re-Post by Paul Andrew Mitchell

SteveH (msg#: 59947)

I guess that the Russian's plan to introduce gold coins into their economy to remove FRNs from under their citizen's mattresses won't work in the US if JT is correct.

Going to a value-based currency on the silver standard instead of back to the gold standard would resolve the problem of all of our gold being depleted out of the national treasury. Of course, if the gold is still physically there and merely encumbered, then the Fed simply can default on its obligations to deliver physical gold and distribute FRN's for its SDR debts. Then deliver denominated gold and silver coins to its citizens in exchange for their FRN's, comparable to what is beginning to take place in the rest of the world.

US. Silver bonds and "U.S. Notes" are replacing FRN with another form of fiat and the citizens will never believe that the future exchange for the actual metal will ever take place. Since paper is much easier to carry, a Certified Silver or Goldnote Certificate that can be exchanged for a given weight of gold 1:1 might be a fiat that would work (if the possibility for manipulation could be controlled).

According to the critics, one of the disadvantages of introducing value-based currencies into the economy is that underlying PM's might fluctuate destabilizing the value and buying power of the instrument. Another concern is that value-based currencies would be hoarded by the citizens causing deflation as the money supply contracts. I think that the hoarding of value-based currencies would be good and severely limit the CB's manipulation capabilities. At least individuals would have PM's in their possession.

The disruption that the direct injection of valued-based money may cause would be mild in contrast to the world war and internal strife that could result from Mr. Mitchell's solution. As long as Congress is elected and not appointed, the unjust, and some say illegal IRS, will reign supreme as the tool for the welfare states redistribution of wealth.

Food for thought.

CoBra(too)

(08/20/2001; 08:22:36 MDT - Msg ID: 59956)

@BR459

Hello there good Sir,
love your insights - even as you do state to hate research, as I do - your logic is more than mere food for thoughts. Sorry to be brief, as I just wanted to acknowlede my appreciation of you'r being here - regards cb2

PS: Venus of Willendorf has found a worthy artist to reproduce the old statue to some more than historical use.

USAGOLD

(08/20/2001; 08:55:10 MDT - Msg ID: 59957)

Daily Commentary & Review: Deutsch Bank Encouraged by Gold Action

Tommy P

(08/20/2001; 09:57:28 MDT - Msg ID: 59958)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/GIS.Servlets.HTMLTemplate?tf=tgam/common/FullStory.html&cf=tgam/common/FullStory.cfg&configFileLoc=tgam/config&vg=BigAdVariableGenerator&date=20010820&dateOffset=&hub=business&title=Business&cache_key=businessColumnistsHeadline�t_row=3☆t_row=3#_rows=1

good read

diehard

(08/20/2001; 11:28:18 MDT - Msg ID: 59959)

diehard`s Parable of Homo Neanderthalensis

An average investor has lost roundabout 60-70 % of his hard-earned invested capital since the Nasdaq `s Salami Crash in early 2000, which still takes hold on until today and perhaps infects the holy grail Dow Jones Industrial Index, too.
Hard times for
an average investor and his family, he/she must feel like living in a den of woe , like the early Neanderthalers and the Australopitheci ( all successors of Primates )did.
Sitting in their woe on a small fireplace running out of food and water and wood , to get the fireplace (investments, averaged down and down to cut losses) burning to escape from the coming winter which will freeze the cave and definitely wipe out the fire.

The average investor (Neanderthaler) even fears to get out of his den of woe , to gather new wood and commodity and everything he needs to survive, but, outside of the cave waits a nasty and big bad snake which is even more hungry for the Neanderthaler , waiting patiently for him , to come out of the cave.

Some possibilities are left for him: either to starve, or to get frozen, or prior to that, getting sacked by the snake.

site steward

(08/20/2001; 12:08:38 MDT - Msg ID: 59960)

BR549, regarding msg#: 59935

http://www.fms.treas.gov/mts/mts0601.pdfThanks for the follow up commentary yesterday! With the help of your additional comments I've now been able to identify the primary source of our difficulties. It appears that you have been attempting to paint the Treasury (and its financial statements) with the same brush that is used for banks (and their balance sheets) and for the Fed in particular.

The Treasury would have a financial condition (and statement) that is far more akin to that of a household than that of a bank. On a bank balance sheet we WOULD expect to see assets and liabilities balance because that's the nature of the money game they play. But when you look at your own household accounting, do you truly expect to see equal liabilities for every asset that you've managed to acquire over the years? (Yet unlike the Treasury, let's hope our household books are operating primarily in the black, rather than in the red. Yikes!!)

I can sure appreciate your loathing of research. Life is definitely too precious to spend it all in the stacks. And since you requested my assistance to hasten this task, let me direct you to the appropriate monthly statement from the Treasury. You can download the pdf at the URL given above, and then direct your attention to page 20 on which you will find the treatment of the SDRs (and outstanding Certificates) within the Treasury's assets and liabilities accounts.

On another item, you said, "Maybe I am misunderstanding how this works and I agree with your summation of JT's theory. I don't think you are wrong in your summation of what he contends..."

Here I think you may have mistakenly attributed someone else's work to me. Nowhere do I recall posting a summary of JT's theory, nor have I attempted to either support or refute his conclusions. That's simply not my place. To be sure, the material on SDRs that I posted (on Friday) was certainly done as a consequence of the attention that James fostered regarding SDRs among forum participants, but my post was offered merely to provide a neutral and parallel commentary explaining the accounting of the Treasury's SDR holdings and the protocol for their monetization (via Certificates) by the Fed. And in that singular regard, I did truly hold up for glorification one of Mr. Turk's paragraphs that touched upon that issue I was addressing.

However, I continue to remain silent, then and now, on ANYbody's (and everybody's) proposals of connections between SDR accounts and gold accounts. I'm not discounting that deals have been struck behind the scenes, but the closest I've seen to a drag on the U.S. by these SDRs was suggestions by Fed Chair Arthur Burns during the mid-1970s that the U.S. might gradually pay off this "debt" to the IMF, assuming that other nations would accept the SDRs at this time when the dollar was not eagerly wanted --the SDR becoming an accounting "window" to exchange dollars for other, preferred, convertible currencies. It may in fact show up tomorrow, but I have yet to see any balance sheet or financial statement that would reveal that such an SDR payback deal has now been struck in gold. Time will tell. In the meanwhile, I am content to justify my own gold acquisitions and holdings on another basis. Many roads lead to Rome, do they not? See you there!

R.

BR549

(08/20/2001; 12:21:49 MDT - Msg ID: 59961)

The Art of Federal Accounting

site steward (msg#: 59960)

You are correct sir! Thanks for the insite and for doing the research for me. The Fed uses standard accounting but alas, the Treasury does not.

@ cb2-

I enjoy your posts 2cb.
I know that Venus of Willendorf would look great in your house. 30% Discount for GOLD! (if the artist OK's the deal and she didn't sell it while in L.A.)

site steward

(08/20/2001; 12:25:06 MDT - Msg ID: 59962)

Fed adds reserves to banking system

The overnight market in fed funds was trading soft at 3.69 percent, and with the FOMC meeting this week, financial institutions are clearly signaling expectations of a target rate cut. Depsite the liquidity/softness, the Fed partook in repurchase operations to add $6.52 billion to reserves ($4.515 billion via 3-day RPs, $2.005 billion via 28-day RPs). In the process, the bid rates were low and the stop outs were ballpark 3.5 percent.

Will the Fed surprise with deeper cuts? Stay tuned.

R.

MarkeTalk

(08/20/2001; 12:43:50 MDT - Msg ID: 59963)

Syrian military buildup in Lebanon

Today's edition of David Dolan's Middle East update mentions the movement of Syrian troops into Lebanon. This comes on the heels of street demonstrations and vitriolic rhetoric (Israelis = Nazis) used to inflame the people. The drums of war are beating once again. Also Israeli inspectors discovered around 10,000 Israeli manufactured bullets being smuggled into the Gaza Strip today. The question arises: what else has been successfully smuggled into Gaza and the West Bank recently? Rumors are floating around that some of the suitcase nukes that are missing from the Russian arsenal were sold to Iran and have now ended up under Palestinian control. Now that's a scary thought!

Did anyone watch "60 Minutes" last night? The top story was an interview with a Hamas leader (now in prison) who recruited a suicide bomber. Anyone listening to his zeal to destroy Israel will quickly see that he and his cohorts will not listen to reason. I liken his ambition to destroy Israel to that of the Japanese kamikaze pilots during WWII. All of this leaves Israel with some very unpleasant options. If Saddam Hussein and/or Syria attack Israel with their millions of "volunteer" troops, Israel will have no choice but to go nuclear. A biological or chemical warfare attack would elicit a similar response. A good friend with contacts overseas told me that Israel has developed a battlefield neutron nuke that can be shot out of a tank gun. It obliterates all living things for a couple of square miles. The radiation drops off pretty quickly and no buildings are destroyed.

Bottom line here: What do you think the prices of oil and gold will do if/when the foregoing scenario comes to pass? You can count on the Gulf state Arabs to play "the oil card" and then watch oil skyrocket. Gold will not be far behind. Then the old saw will take on new meaning: It is better to be an hour too early rather than a day too late. Once again, I urge all of my clients here at Centennial to re-evaluate their gold holdings and to call me if they need to buy more gold at these ridiculously cheap prices.

GC

MarkeTalk

(08/20/2001; 12:46:25 MDT - Msg ID: 59964)

Syrian military buildup in Lebanon

http://www.ddolan.com/update.htmlHere is the link to David Dolan's website regarding the aforementioned story.

Netking

(08/20/2001; 13:01:06 MDT - Msg ID: 59965)

More suicide bombers in Israel just waiting for the order

http://www.haaretzdaily.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=65774&contrassID=1⊂ContrassID=1&sbSubContrassID=0The military wing of Hamas said Monday it had suicide bombers in Israel waiting for orders to avenge the deaths in the Gaza Strip of a Palestinian activist and his two children.

"We have mujahideen (fighters) inside the Zionist entity awaiting the signal to explode like an earthquake and turn the Zionists to pieces," a member of Hamas's military wing, Izz el-Din al-Qassam, shouted over loudspeakers before Abu Zeid's funeral.

Tommy P

(08/20/2001; 13:06:15 MDT - Msg ID: 59966)

Ames goes down for the count

http://www.bloomberg.com/welcome.htmlOH no hey but the Dow is up???

Netking

(08/20/2001; 13:37:45 MDT - Msg ID: 59967)

Australian gold industry warned

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,2633136%255E462,00.htmlSnippit:

"GOLD prices spiked upwards late last week, coinciding with two stark warnings about the ability of Australia to maintain its standing in the industry.

The slow decline in Australian gold production is expected to accelerate over the next year with the closure of large and long-standing gold mines.

Meanwhile, Australian Gold Council chief executive Greg Barns told a resources conference in Perth that Australia faced losing its mineral exploration sector to Canada and Britain unless both the Coalition and the Labor Party realised that explorers needed help to attract venture capital . . .

Surbiton director Sandra Close warned that, in the coming year, the amount of gold production lost because of mine closures would be greater than the extra output from new projects and capacity increases. She said the Australian industry had done a remarkable job in maintaining overall gold output in the past few years. However, you cannot defy gravity forever and closures over the next year will begin to bite . . .

BR549

(08/20/2001; 14:34:31 MDT - Msg ID: 59968)

Head 'em Up and Move that GOLD Out

http://www.fms.treas.gov/mts/mts0701.pdfRandy-"Additional holdings of SDRs acquired outside of the IMF allocation quotas are added only to the asset side of the ledger. This asset side is adjusted downward according to any SDR Certificates that have been issued. Think of these Certificates as the title to an equivalent value of SDRs, similar to the title you provide to a bank to represent your car if you are using it for collateral on a loan."

Now that I had a chance to further analyze the Treasury financials, I think it looks more like a Banksters Income Statement than a balance sheet.

site steward (msg#: 59960)

Now that I had a chance to further analyze the Treasury financials, I think it looks more like a Banksters Income Statement.

The new Treasury Report for July, 2001 has just come out at 2:00PM Eastern today to update your previous link you provided in your last post for June report. It looks as though 2,200 additional SDR Certificates have been transferred from the Treasury to The Federal Reserve Bank. The total balance of SDR's remaining in The Treasury is down to 8,318 from the previous months 10,518. It seems as though 2,200 was the remainder of the Fed's balance of SDR Certificates. Wonder if the Fed spent their remaining 2,200 last month? Is the 2,200 number just a coincidence? Did I read this data correctly?

I will check the Fed's new financials when they are updated to see if they show up there and to make sure that I am not double counting.

@Chris Powell of GATA-More gold moving out of the coffers perhaps?

Solomon Weaver

(08/20/2001; 16:22:05 MDT - Msg ID: 59969)

Snipett on Silver Market

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article.asp?Feed=BW&Date=20010813&ID=995722&Symbol=US:PAASSILVER MARKET

Silver prices in the quarter continued the disappointing downward trend set in late 2000, reaching a low of $4.30 in late June. July prices trended lower again, to a low of $4.19 on July 16. This is a 26-year low in real terms and, we believe, is simply unsustainable in the face of the massive silver deficit which has consumed over one billion ounces of silver inventories since 1990.

Despite economic weakness in major markets, silver use in industrial and photographic markets has increased to date in 2001, according to a recent independent report by CPM Group, though silver use in jewelry and silverware registered a modest decline.

We believe mine production of silver will decline in 2001 and for the next few years due to the closure of many large silver-producing mines and the opening of few new ones. The silver market at present, like many other markets, is technically driven rather than fundamentally driven but it is inevitable that the fundamentals will be asserted at some time and this should be accompanied by a strong upward correction in silver prices.

Pan American Silver - most recent report on Q2 2001

Poor old Solomon

site steward

(08/20/2001; 16:37:42 MDT - Msg ID: 59970)

U.S. gold in international trade for June 2001

I finally found a chance to distill the latest monthly trade report for its relevance to some of you who frequent this forum.

The Friday August 17th release of June trade data from the U.S. Department of Commerce revealed that our overall imports of goods and services declined for the third straight month (down to $115.36 billion, the lowest since Feb. 2000), reflecting our economic slowdown.

Interestingly, despite this spending malaise, our national level of imported gold actually rose for the month by approximately 4 tonnes, from $126 million in May to $163 million in June. Perhaps American investment interest in gold is beginning to show its mettle.

Also despite this slowdown in our spending, our international trade deficit in goods and services still climbed from May ($28.5 billion revised) to $29.4 billion in June because our level of goods and services exported declined even greater than our imports...a reflection of the strong dollar (exchange rate) sustained through June.

Were this $29.4 billion June trade imbalance to be settled by payments using gold instead of U.S. currency, nearly 3,375 tonnes would be required to settle this single month's account at then prevailing market prices.

As it was, foreigners called for the United States to export $585 million (67 tonnes) of gold in June, resulting in a net outflow of approximately 48 tonnes (after accounting for our 19 tonnes of gold imports in June).

Year to date, our cumulative net outflow of gold for year 2001 has climbed to approximately 307 tonnes, outpacing last year's level of 201 tonnes at this time.

We are on pace to lose over 600 tonnes of gold for the whole year. For perspective, our annual supply from domestic production is only 350 tonnes. Will you give up your own gold to help fill the gap?

Alternatively, I suggest to call Centennial to acquire more, especially now that the dollar appears to have taken a turn for the floor -- seemingly peaking in early July. The Fed will likely soften monetary policy yet further tomorrow. How safe is your form of savings?

Randy

site steward

(08/20/2001; 17:22:41 MDT - Msg ID: 59971)

BR549 -- hot off the press!

Looks like you are "Johnny on the spot", having taken a peak at the latest Monthy Treasury Statement while the cyber-ink was still wet.

What you will see revealed by the numbers for July (page 20 again) is that, not surprisingly, there was no implied change to the Treasury's allocation of SDRs, and further, there was no change to the quantity of SDRs among total holdings.

The change in VALUE that you will see represented from the beginning to the end of the month (for both the SDR allocations in the liability account and the SDR total holdings in the asset account) is a reflection of the dollar's exchange-rate downturn over the course of the month of July. As a consequence, each SDR held increased in dollar value from beginning to end, and that is what you'll see.

We also see that the Treasury has maintained its level of monetization at $2.2 billion via the issuance of Certificates to the Fed. (At today's exchange rate of $1.283 per SDR, the outstanding Certificates result in the encumbrance of 1.715 billion SDRs held by the Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund. And from the For-what-it's-worth Department, due to the dollar's continuing exchange-rate decline, the quantity of the Treasury's encumbered SDRs actually decreases even as the Treasury holds its monetization steady over the past month with Certificates valued at $2.2 billion.)

It looks to me some people throughout this time have been mistakenly interchanging the dollar value of these SDR and Certificate accounts as though they were quantities of SDRs. As I tried to allude to Friday, there is a distinction.

I think that's probably the last of it you'll hear from me on this deal -- I'm sure everyone is yawning indifferently at my comments. However, since you've shown an interest, perhaps my Friday posts will now seem a bit clearer?

R.

Sierra Madre

(08/20/2001; 17:59:52 MDT - Msg ID: 59972)

Why 99% of investors will not invest in Gold or Silver

I guess we all know this, but perhaps we should remind ourselves now and then.

99% of investors will not even think of investing in physical gold or silver. Why?

Simple: they would feel ashamed of themselves, and self-respect is terribly important to human beings.

Virtually all investors KNOW that only cranky people who are out of touch with reality, buy precious metals. Such people are of course "intellectually challenged" to put it mildly.

Shame is a powerful weapon for controlling human behavior. Buying gold or silver is a shameful act, for whoever decides to buy is placing himself in low-class company. Only freaks buy gold. Goldbugs=kooks.

The rulers of this world have done a great job of manipulation of public opinion, as regards gold ownership.

Don't expect tomorrow's series "Gold!" on the History Channel, to depart from the script regarding gold ownership. The thrust of the programs will surely bash gold. The message: "it's beautiful as jewelry; it has had a great history of moving men; but that era is over; gold as money, as an investment, is dead forever."

Don't say I didn't warn you. Turn off the audio and look at the program. Provide your own audio by talking to yourself.

The gold advocates are the lepers of today's society.

Only something really terrible is going to change that view.

Maybe these are the "good old times". "Beware what you pray for, you may get it".

Recalcitrant Sierra

R Powell

(08/20/2001; 18:57:26 MDT - Msg ID: 59973)

Sierra Madre

You mentioned that gold and silver investors should be ashamed of themselves, are out of touch with reality, are intellectually challenged and probably suffer from a loss of self-respect.
Hey, man, nobody ever said it was supposed to be easy.
You haven't been talking to the misses have you?
Is it okay if we have some other redeaming qualities?
I mean, I did once own one tech stock, for a short time about four years ago. Does that count?
Like Solomon, I walk around with a Silver Eagle in my pocket and, as you stated, most people think I'm a little odd when I tell them about it.
But don't worry, I don't think there are many of us,...yet. Beware the Fed. rate cut!
Rich

auspec

(08/20/2001; 19:15:44 MDT - Msg ID: 59974)

Rich and Soloman

Totin' a Morgan Dollar as of tomorrow!

Rockgrabber

(08/20/2001; 19:17:22 MDT - Msg ID: 59975)

Sierra Madre, R Powell

Sierra Madre, "The gold advocates are the lepers of todays society". Yep, hate to even leave the house I feel so dumb. If I bring up what is on my mind, I am a loony in the others minds. Sure is nice to have this place to come to, and see some others feel and think this way as well. Its the ultimate in contrary opinion, with the best sure hopes of success. Its OK what they think, we have worked hard to learn the truth on the matter, they have not. We stand to win, they stand to lose. I am sorry for them, but just look at their will to understand, Its not there. There are pits to fall into along this trail of life, if we do not be carefull we will find them. Cheers, to being carefull in understanding. Look forward to hiking with you all.

Loving Nature,
Fearing Bad,
Rockgrabber

Netking

(08/20/2001; 19:25:46 MDT - Msg ID: 59976)

Sierra Madre, Auspec, Rich, Solomon etc -Silver

. . . not to mention watching the eyes of some my relations go "as wide as organ stops" when I produce a bar of polished silver bullion for them to look at and hold. . . Oh My!

CoBra(too)

(08/20/2001; 19:35:52 MDT - Msg ID: 59977)

Is it the New Moon ?

Woke up thinking about investing even more in physical gold, after all it is the only asset without "counterparty" risk - a distinction, which may become more important
'with the day'. Hey, we've had LTCM and Tigers and, of course, Barings, how about bailing some red herings, like GS, JPM/Chase or even the ESF? ... and disclose la meme chose with an overdose of black (pepper) scholes, stir fried by adding light rubin rose� to the hot pot of the day!

As it seems its more or less capital, as Moore Capital has to fess up to survive the day - I'm happy to say I wouldn't be a counterparty at risk to its decay - and all of that is only hearsay and not advice, I pray!

Though, I pledge, I don't hedge, as the hedges tend to disappear, when the hedge-hogs are in need of cover ... like banks lending (credit) umbrellas at sunny days ... fellers, get ye some real cover for rainy days ...
back to zzzz - cb2

andrus sommerselg

(08/20/2001; 19:37:40 MDT - Msg ID: 59978)

"Good old times"

How true sir Sierra,

Indeed we have lived the nuevo belle epoque. We may have a few more years and get to watch things unwind. People are tired, public sentiment is as low as morals; times are changing.

Sir Netking; I have done just about the same not long ago. My act of a silver bar exposure made a convert. The operation was a success. The patient is alive and well.

SteveH

(08/20/2001; 19:42:34 MDT - Msg ID: 59979)

PPT

www.kitco.comrepost:

Date: Mon Aug 20 2001 19:54
sailor (dan (GoldBrick, I know the url is there, BUT the article has been substantialy altered,)) ID#14470:
Copyright � 2000 sailor/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
sheesh dan, as I said, don't know what's wrong with you accessing the site. Sorry Kitco, I'll waste some bandwidth, but I am gona do some "cut and paste" so just dan don't feel so paranoid.
Here is what I read, exactly the same what GoldBrick posted in the morning. Where is the missing part? Must be them alians working on your putter.

--------------
Michael said: "George, et al: Has there ever been any documentation of the Federal Government ( PPT ) using taxpayer dollars to make purchases ( sales ) in the financial markets, and if so, how is it done? Thanks, Michael Spencer"
My reply...
Actually, the real name of the PPT is called "The President's Working Group in Financial Markets". This organization is documented and it includes US President, Secty of the Treasury, Presidents of each major stock & financial exchanges, Fed Chairman, Presidents of CFTC and SEC, and a handful of non-voting associates. The origination of controversy around government involvement in manipulating stock markets began when an op-ed piece appeared in the Wall Street Journal on October 27, 1989 by then Fed Chairman Robert Heller. The following is a link to a copy from library microfiche of that article ( sorry for the poor quality ) :
http://www.geocities.com/cyclepro2/Share/wsj891027.gif
The President's Working Group is not charted to make any "direct" trades affecting equity or financial markets. However, it really does not matter who is actually doing it, as long as the manipulation is effective. Since 1997 there have been very close ties between the major brokerage houses and members of the Working Group. In October, 1997's mini-crash it was rumored to be Goldman-Sachs and Merrill-Lynch on the trading floor of S&P futures that forced the bid to rise by almost $30 in a matter of a few minutes. Arbitrageurs took over and effectively inched the equity markets higher while trading the various spreads between indexes ( baskets of individual stocks ) and futures. I have also been told that it was Merrill that was instrumental in the first big "experiment" in 1987 by buying MMI ( Major Market Index ) futures that effectively stopped that crash from going any lower.
With this scheme, no tax dollars are used to manipulate markets. The 1997 manipulation appeared to be rather obvious, particularly when looking at the real-time sequence of events that coincided at nearly the same time of the morning... 12 blue chip companies announced major stock buy-back programs of which IBM announced a buy-back of $10 billion ( even though they already had a $4 billion program already in progress ) and there is insufficient evidence to substantiate that IBM bought back even $1 dollar of the $10 billion. Since 1997 there have been several instances that left behind scant evidence of manipulation, but not enough to point the finger at any one individual or organization. They have apparently learned to be more and more transparent in their activities. The reason Goldman & Merrill are active participants in these schemes is simple... they have access to huge managed accounts where they can place ( ie: hide ) trades. Collectively across all collutive accounts, the effect is substantial. I am guessing that if you were to review the raw SEC archives of individual trade data the trades would appear to have been made by individual accounts in varying sizes rather than one organization. Once they start the ball rolling and momentum takes over, they can sell back their positions to close out and effectively capture a nice profit. Anyone privy to these events can certainly profit individually in what must certainly be the most effective insider trading opportunity that is likely to ever exist -- since the CFTC and SEC are involved, it is unlikely that anyone would ever be penalized for front-running the manipulation activity. As for other alleged government manipulation, check into the discussions offered by GATA on the price of Gold. I have to admit that the arguments that the GATA boys are putting together are rather compelling.

auspec

(08/20/2001; 19:58:01 MDT - Msg ID: 59980)

Reiteration

Simply repeating a point----- Whether or not Congress has totally failed to properly supervise the US Treasury gold, they are FULLY CAPABLE of turning 2 blind eyes while the elitist's games go on. Believe it!

slingshot

(08/20/2001; 20:00:58 MDT - Msg ID: 59981)

Silver Dollar

I have in my wallet a Peace Silver Dollar. Both sides of the coin is badly worn. It has tarnished and has no date. You can see the portrait of Lady Liberty and a few letters of,IN GOD WE TRUST. The back of the coin displays an outline of the Eagle and the faint inscription of E PLURBIS UNUM. Strange how this description of this coin also can describe the state of the USA. Loss of Liberty. No faith in God. Our abilty to preserve Peace though Power Projection weakened.
I have pulled it from my wallet to glance upon its worn surface. Imagined when it was a new coin with all its luster.
How many hands has it passed through to create this image.
But the thing I love to do is drop it on the counter and hear the sound it makes.With all the ravages of time it still RINGS TRUE.
I'll let you all come to your own conclusion to this little story.
Slingshot

Black Blade

(08/20/2001; 20:57:23 MDT - Msg ID: 59982)

RE: SteveH - PPT

http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm
The Working Group on Financial Markets is not without precedent. In 1907, J.P. Morgan was approached during the "Financial Panic of 1907" by bankers who had invested the banks funds in the stock markets and the market was crashing. They informed Morgan that the banks were insolvent and that a run on the banks was eminent. Morgan loaned the bankers several million dollars to start buying stocks and create a "Faux Bull Market" on Wall Street. That time it had worked. This time, however, it is not just the upper classes that own stocks, but it is Joe Sixpack who has his 401K and other investment funds tied up in the stock market. It is a bit more difficult to keep a lid on the Pressure Cooker. The Working group on Financial Markets (PPT), which also includes investment houses, has a very difficult task on its hands. When Joe Sixpack bails then it's "Game Over."

BTW, I keep hearing about the alleged "Budget Surplus." BS - There is no "Budget Surplus" and there hasn't been one since the early 1960's. This is a simple lie that no one is pointing out. If there is a surplus how come the national debt keeps rising? If the inflows exceed the outflows, then the national debt would decline - not increase. The "Munchkin" from the Wizard of Oz (Robert Reich) is on FOX spouting this drivel. I also heard Rush Limbaugh doing the same today. These clowns have no clue or else they are purposely misleading the people. The Federal Mafia has been dipping into the People's Pension Fund, just as the Sicilian Mafia had dipped into the Teamsters Pension Fund. No difference.

Black Blade

(08/20/2001; 21:03:16 MDT - Msg ID: 59983)

Forbes Body Count

http://www.forbes.com/2001/01/30/layoffs.html
The "Bone Pile" rises to new heights. The stench that signals the Recession is on grows more stale by the hour. This economy is in deep trouble and many more layoffs are coming. Time to lock in some PMs for insurance and stock issues continue to seesaw into oblivion.

Black Blade

(08/20/2001; 21:09:54 MDT - Msg ID: 59984)

Agilent to Ax 4,000 Workers, Posts Loss

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010820/business_tech_agilent_dc_3.html
Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Electronics testing equipment maker Agilent Technologies Inc. (NYSE:A) said on Monday it would cut 9 percent of its work force and reported a third-quarter operating loss as it struggles to restructure its business amid persistent soft demand.

Black Blade: I smell Chapter 11 by the end of next year. Dem Bones, Dem Bones, Dem Dry Bones�. All 4000 little piles of them bones - up on the heap with the rest of Dem "Bones."

White Hills

(08/20/2001; 21:26:36 MDT - Msg ID: 59985)

auspec

Just to let you know I was out there in Gold Basin saturday and found a little Gold. What a feeling. Not quite the same as receiving it in the mail from MK. Wednesday night the Arizona powerball Lottery is 175,000,000.00. Went by Rosie's early Sunday morning to get my tickets. I can't imagine the crowd that will be coming from Las Vegas to buy tickets. Once again I am willing to share my winnings with anybody posting on this forum. Just let me know if you are interested and I will assign you one of the numbers. If it wins we will split the 175,000.000.00. First twenty gets the numbers. By the way I have talked to few prospectors who haven't a clue what is happening to gold. Without exception I hear, gold is a commodity, it pays no interest, it is to expensive to mine, and nobody really has any use for it. After all aren't all the Banks selling gold? It is like they have all been programmed by CNBC. White Hills

Black Blade

(08/20/2001; 21:37:23 MDT - Msg ID: 59986)

Analysis: Big Oil Faces Uphill Climb

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010819/bs/energy_growth_dc_1.html
Snippit:

HOUSTON (Reuters) - It's like a portly gent trying to run up the down escalator: big oil companies are failing to meet production growth targets because they are using up mature fields faster than they can find and develop big enough new ones to replace them, according to analysts. Depletion from existing oil fields runs at an average rate of about 5 percent per year, and that has to be replaced by an equivalent amount of new production just to keep output steady. The bigger the company, the tougher the task it faces. Small independent producers can post impressive growth rates from a low base; not so for the supermajors. From 1998 to 2000 the six biggest publicly traded companies largely failed to replace the oil and gas they produced with new reserves, after stripping out the effect of acquisitions and revisions, according to the Andersen management consulting firm.

Black Blade: "The Slow Burn." It is just a matter of time now. Demand continues to grow while reserves shrink and large oil fields reach their peak production or go into decline. Currently there is only about a 2 million to 4 million bbl/day capacity for increased oil production and refining. Refineries are also aging and some are scheduled for closure. No new refineries are being built due to the liability associated with environmental regulations. Ultimately it means the end of the Bull Market economy we have seen over the last 20 years as there is no longer any "Cheap Energy" to fuel the Bull - shake hands with the Bear.

Gold is still cheap portfolio insurance.

goldquest

(08/20/2001; 21:59:14 MDT - Msg ID: 59987)

White Hills

I am interested! Thanks much!

Black Blade

(08/20/2001; 22:57:41 MDT - Msg ID: 59988)

Woe Is Japan

http://www.dismal.com/thoughts/article.asp?aid=1338
Snippit:

The revision to the first quarter numbers, as irrelevant as they are, is the only positive development regarding the Japanese economy in recent weeks. The dire straits in which the Japanese find themselves is best illustrated by the Bank of Japan's recent Monthly Report, which assesses current economic circumstances as well as the Bank's outlook, and which makes for lugubrious reading. Consider the following fragments from the current assessment: "�private consumption remains flat�", "Housing investment is declining�", "public investment is also starting to decline�", "�Net exports continue to decline�", "Business fixed investment is also decreasing�", "Industrial production continues to decline�", "Corporate profits and business sentiment are also worsening�", "�household income seems to be weakening�"

If that were not bad enough, the Bank's outlook is equally bleak: "public investment is expected to follow a declining trend.", "Net exports are likely to continue decreasing�", "�business fixed investment is projected to follow a downward trend.", "Industrial production is expected to follow a declining trend." Indeed, the BOJ seems to be resigned to a prolonged period of widening economic stagnation. Note the following statement: "�it seems to be inevitable that adjustments [read contraction] in economic activities�will continue for the time being. Moreover, the substantial decline in production would cause domestic demand to decrease and in turn generate the risk of adjustments [again, read contraction] in economic activities to spread even further."

Black Blade: "Game Over" for Japan. With a zero interest rate policy, there is no room to maneuver. AG and the Federal Reserve will likely cut US interest rates tomorrow, yet many now ask: If there is no problem with the economy, why seven consecutive rate cuts? That perception will hound the US markets over the next few days. As far as the Japanese economy - "Kamakaze Economy" Indeed!

Gandalf the White

(08/20/2001; 23:11:47 MDT - Msg ID: 59989)

Thanks White Hills !!

Please choose a set of numbers with the Hobbits lucky #37 in it !
<;-)

Black Blade

(08/20/2001; 23:47:59 MDT - Msg ID: 59990)

Demand for rigs softens in U.S. Gulf of Mexico

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010820/n20282329.html
Snippit:

HOUSTON, Aug 20 (Reuters) - Demand for offshore rigs in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico has softened after a natural gas drilling boom in the first half of 2001, but forces that could support a recovery may already be at work, analysts said on Monday. Drilling has slowed down in the waters off the Texas and Louisiana coasts in response to a steep drop in U.S. natural gas prices from record highs of around $10 per thousand cubic feet at the end of last year to levels of around $3 in recent weeks. The number of rigs working in the U.S. Gulf fell to 165 last week from 168 the previous week, bringing the utilization rate for the U.S. Gulf drilling fleet down to 77.8 percent from 90.5 percent in late April, according to Offshore Data Services.

As markets outside North America continue to recover, some rigs will leave the Gulf of Mexico to seek their fortune elsewhere, helping reduce oversupply in the Gulf, analysts said. Furthermore, with output from existing U.S. natural gas wells declining by about 25 percent a year, the slowdown in drilling in the Gulf should soon lead to reduced domestic gas supplies, higher gas prices and greater demand for rigs, they added.

Black Blade: Unlike Gold Mining, when prices for natural gas fall, more expensive extraction operations stop production, thereby placing a floor on prices by reducing supply. Gold miners continue to produce when prices fall by either high-grading their deposits and therefore shorten the life of the mine, or they operate at a loss, still placing more product on the market. These offshore operations for NG exploration and production are more costly, however, as the article points out - fewer operating drill rigs means less supply - and higher prices. Still, the number of drill rigs (both land and offshore) has more than doubled and there is less than 2% production increase. There is simply not enough land based drill rigs and experienced workers where the bulk of natural gas exploration occurs. Recent AGA data shows sharply declining injection rates ahead of the coming fall and winter season. Energy prices are destined to remain high and even head higher, perhaps much higher if fall and winter are normal to colder than normal. Watch the CPI jump higher (despite the spin and bogus statistical filters) - Could get "interesting."

BR549

(08/21/2001; 00:03:15 MDT - Msg ID: 59991)

Gold Students

http://www.historychannel.com/classroom/guides/goldguides.pdf
All right class, come to order.

cb2, quit throwing those spitballs.

Take you seats class. Sit down auspec!

Here are your vocabulary words for tomorrow night's homework assignment:

Amass
Bedrock
Drove
Entrepreneur
Itinerant
Malleable
Mine
Mint
Prospector
Quartz

Here is your first quiz:

How many miners moved to the West after Sutter's Mill was discovered?
1. 10,000
2. 20,000
3. 30,000
4. 40,000

Sutter's first name was:
1. John
2. George
3. Ringo
4. James

The average take in gold for each miner in 1849 was:
1. $100
2. $250
3. $500
4. $1,000

Besides California, there were also gold rushes in:
1. Alaska
2. Russia
3. Italy
4. All of the above

Which of these statements is true:
1. A pound of silver is worth more FRN's than a pound of gold
2. A pound of gold weighs more than a pound of silver.
3. The Federal Reserve is going to go back on the gold standard at its next FOMC meeting instead of raising interest rates.
4. Gold has maintained its relative purchasing power throughout history

Anybody missing this last question will be required to read all of the books at the link listed above and not be allowed to post at USAG for at least 6 months.

Make sure your parents have a blank tape for their VCR's and somebody knows how to program it. Your homework assignment is to watch the History Channel at 9:00 PM Eastern, tomorrow night 8/21, and report back to the site afterwards.

Class dismissed.

View Yesterday's Discussion.

BR549

(08/21/2001; 00:07:49 MDT - Msg ID: 59992)

Whoops!

Make that today's homework assignment

Gandalf the White

(08/21/2001; 00:48:03 MDT - Msg ID: 59993)

BR549's Homework

An Itinerant Prospector staked a claim on a Quartz vein in Bedrock to Mine Malleable metal ore, Drove to the Mint with his production to Amass his fortune and became a learned Entrepreneur.
---
<;-)

BR549

(08/21/2001; 01:20:55 MDT - Msg ID: 59994)

History Channel

Gandalf the White (msg#: 59993)

An "A� for Gandalf. By the way do you know how to program VCR's?

Sierra Madre (msg#: 59972)

A little slow, so I'll take another turn.

Sierra M-"Don't expect tomorrow's series "Gold!" on the History Channel, to depart from the script regarding gold ownership. The thrust of the programs will surely bash gold. The message: "it's beautiful as jewelry; it has had a great history of moving men; but that era is over; gold as money, as an investment, is dead forever. Don't say I didn't warn you. Turn off the audio and look at the program. Provide your own audio by talking to yourself."

I have been out of town today so I am catching up on my reading of previous postings.

I will guarantee you that you are wrong on today's episode because it deals with gold rushes and has nothing to do with investments. This IS the "History Channel".

Have you ever watched anything on the History Channel before or are you generalizing that all media is as evil as the networks? If this Gold documentary was being presented by that liberal Condit lovin� empty suit Dan Rather, Connie Chung, or any of the other network puke anchors, then I would agree with you that the probability is that this series will end up as a gold hatchet job.

I watch the History Channel all of the time and do not find a political agenda there. For the most part they document history using both old newsreel footage and readings of recorded history. They take much criticism for showing Nazi and other unpopular historical examples from "politically correct" liberal interests for telling it like it WAS.
Don't interpret that I agree or disagree with any of these philosophies, but I do agree in listening to both sides. The ME is now an example now as both sides have some legitimate arguments. How do you know whom to agree with unless you listen with an open mind?

If you watch the History Channel as regularly as I do, then maybe I'm wrong. Please provide me some examples of the "history" of where this channel has intentionally misrepresented historical facts. You do realize that this is a four part gold series and the "meat" of our agenda here at USAG will not be presented until the third episode.

I'll make you a deal, if I am wrong, (after the series is completed), I'll admit it that you're right�and if you are wrong (that this Gold series was worthwhile), you do the same. Of course, I expect some legitimate reasons all along from both of us here daily on the site.

If I listen with an open mind, I find I often learn a lot more than when I have my mind already made up.

You may turn your volume down, it's definitely your choice, but I don't think that you will learn as much or will be able to pass the final exam. Gandalph is currently at the head of the class.

Regards from Cornfield County

Netking

(08/21/2001; 01:47:32 MDT - Msg ID: 59995)

One more push?

http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=747163Tuesday is Alan "you don't know hard it is for me" Greenspan's time.

Expectations of another cut in American interest rates remain high, following a run of official figures which suggests that economic recovery remains elusive. All eyes are once again on America's Federal Reserve which meets Tuesday.

Netking

(08/21/2001; 03:58:26 MDT - Msg ID: 59996)

The "statement will be more important than the move.

This from REUTERS on the much expected Federal Reserve rate cut:

Bond investors will likely look past a widely expected quarter-percentage point Federal Reserve rate cut on Tuesday and delve into the central bank's short accompanying statement for signs that short-term rates may head still lower in coming months.

Despite some profit taking on Monday, Treasuries have rallied furiously in recent weeks, with yields on interest rate-sensitive two-year notes hitting their lowest levels since the securities were first issued in 1972, on hopes the Fed will cut rates again in October or November and keep rates low with few signs of an economic recovery taking shape.

"The Fed's statement with the move will be more important," said Jim Evans, domestic portfolio manager with Brown Brothers Harriman in New York. "If they hint at this is the end and monetary policy works with long lags, the market will probably sell off."

But analysts said it was more likely the Fed will signal that more rate cuts could be in the works after the central bank highlights the ills still plaguing the economy, which could support the recent gains in short-term notes. However, the expected rate cut could prompt some shift from recently outperforming short-term notes to longer-dated issues, particularly if the Fed reiterates that inflation remains contained, some analysts said.

"The short end of the yield curve could get hit pretty hard," said Evans. The Fed will announce its decision at about 2:15 p.m. (1815 GMT). Weekly retail sales data from chain stores may guide prices before the Fed decision as investors look for signs that consumers are spending their tax rebate checks.

At its last policy meeting on July 27, the Fed's Open Market Committee said declining corporate profits, weak capital spending and slowing growth in consumption were all hurting the economy, while an ease in price pressures kept inflation contained.

"The Fed will give a statement saying we're here to keep the door open," said Barry Evans, who helps manage more than $30 billion in fixed-income at John Hancock Funds in Boston. Bond investors will also be looking over their shoulder after the rate cut decision to see how stock markets react. Any positive cheer in stock indexes could take the allure off of government debt, particularly short-term notes, causing prices to decline and yields to rise.

Tumbling stock markets last week sent Treasuries soaring higher, as bond investors focused on the unrelenting profit woes in Corporate America and the resulting declines in stocks -- both of which could depress business and consumer spending in the months ahead.

"The Fed has much more to lose by not tightening than they do by easing too much. They're going to err on the side of easing too much," said Fred Robertson, chief investment officer at Criterion Investment Management. After 2.75 percentage points in rate cuts this year, an economic rebound has yet to materialize. Meanwhile, financial markets have worked against the Fed, with stock markets under water for the year and yields on benchmark 10-year notes mostly unchanged.

Typically, monetary easing causes bond yields to fall, lowering corporate borrowing costs while also putting more cash in consumers' pockets by spurring home refinancing activity through falls in mortgage rates. Rising stocks help spur business investment and make consumers feel more wealthy.

The Fed's benchmark federal funds rate stands at a seven-year low of 3.75 percent. For Robertson, a still robust housing market, falling energy prices, $38 billion in tax rebates and the Fed's aggressive rate cuts should all help revive growth in coming months. Robertson said he has moved to an underweight position on Treasuries.

But many investors are eyeing at least one more rate cut later in the year. Futures contracts on the federal funds rate are pricing in roughly an 80 percent chance of another quarter-point cut at the October or November meeting.

Netking

(08/21/2001; 03:58:50 MDT - Msg ID: 59997)

The "statement" will be more important than the move.

This from REUTERS on the much expected Federal Reserve rate cut:
------------------------------------------------------------
Bond investors will likely look past a widely expected quarter-percentage point Federal Reserve rate cut on Tuesday and delve into the central bank's short accompanying statement for signs that short-term rates may head still lower in coming months.

Despite some profit taking on Monday, Treasuries have rallied furiously in recent weeks, with yields on interest rate-sensitive two-year notes hitting their lowest levels since the securities were first issued in 1972, on hopes the Fed will cut rates again in October or November and keep rates low with few signs of an economic recovery taking shape.

"The Fed's statement with the move will be more important," said Jim Evans, domestic portfolio manager with Brown Brothers Harriman in New York. "If they hint at this is the end and monetary policy works with long lags, the market will probably sell off."

But analysts said it was more likely the Fed will signal that more rate cuts could be in the works after the central bank highlights the ills still plaguing the economy, which could support the recent gains in short-term notes. However, the expected rate cut could prompt some shift from recently outperforming short-term notes to longer-dated issues, particularly if the Fed reiterates that inflation remains contained, some analysts said.

"The short end of the yield curve could get hit pretty hard," said Evans. The Fed will announce its decision at about 2:15 p.m. (1815 GMT). Weekly retail sales data from chain stores may guide prices before the Fed decision as investors look for signs that consumers are spending their tax rebate checks.

At its last policy meeting on July 27, the Fed's Open Market Committee said declining corporate profits, weak capital spending and slowing growth in consumption were all hurting the economy, while an ease in price pressures kept inflation contained.

"The Fed will give a statement saying we're here to keep the door open," said Barry Evans, who helps manage more than $30 billion in fixed-income at John Hancock Funds in Boston. Bond investors will also be looking over their shoulder after the rate cut decision to see how stock markets react. Any positive cheer in stock indexes could take the allure off of government debt, particularly short-term notes, causing prices to decline and yields to rise.

Tumbling stock markets last week sent Treasuries soaring higher, as bond investors focused on the unrelenting profit woes in Corporate America and the resulting declines in stocks -- both of which could depress business and consumer spending in the months ahead.

"The Fed has much more to lose by not tightening than they do by easing too much. They're going to err on the side of easing too much," said Fred Robertson, chief investment officer at Criterion Investment Management. After 2.75 percentage points in rate cuts this year, an economic rebound has yet to materialize. Meanwhile, financial markets have worked against the Fed, with stock markets under water for the year and yields on benchmark 10-year notes mostly unchanged.

Typically, monetary easing causes bond yields to fall, lowering corporate borrowing costs while also putting more cash in consumers' pockets by spurring home refinancing activity through falls in mortgage rates. Rising stocks help spur business investment and make consumers feel more wealthy.

The Fed's benchmark federal funds rate stands at a seven-year low of 3.75 percent. For Robertson, a still robust housing market, falling energy prices, $38 billion in tax rebates and the Fed's aggressive rate cuts should all help revive growth in coming months. Robertson said he has moved to an underweight position on Treasuries.

But many investors are eyeing at least one more rate cut later in the year. Futures contracts on the federal funds rate are pricing in roughly an 80 percent chance of another quarter-point cut at the October or November meeting.

Netking

(08/21/2001; 04:02:54 MDT - Msg ID: 59998)

Double post

Sorry about the double post . . . caused by a short term glitch and not Sir Megatrons beverage.

Black Blade

(08/21/2001; 06:14:52 MDT - Msg ID: 59999)

J.P. MORGAN CHASE: Job cuts may reach 8,000 at financial services giant

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0108210218aug21.story?coll=chi%2Dbusiness%2Dhed
Snippit:

NEW YORK -- As market conditions continue to deteriorate, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. now expects to cut its workforce by up to 8 percent, or about 8,000 jobs, up from a previous forecast of 5,000, sources within the company said Monday.

Black Blade: Tossing a few more "Bones" on to the ever-growing "Bone Pile."

BTW, Abby Jo of Goldman Sachs just lowered her estimate for the S&P again by year-end. She is chasing the index. Now she says 1500, down from 1550, down from 1650, down from�

White Hills

(08/21/2001; 07:42:18 MDT - Msg ID: 60000)

goldquest

Here is your number, Ticket 1A, 12-25-29-34-45 powerball is 36. Good Luck , White Hills

White Hills

(08/21/2001; 07:48:39 MDT - Msg ID: 60001)

Gandalf the White

Here is your Ticket number,Ticket 1H: 02- 03- 11- 19- 36 powerball 37, Good Luck White Hills

Econoclast

(08/21/2001; 07:58:03 MDT - Msg ID: 60002)

White Hills...

Count Me In!I promise to do my part for all of us and use any proceeds to remove physical gold from the market!

White Hills

(08/21/2001; 08:35:59 MDT - Msg ID: 60004)

Econoclast

Here is you number, Ticket 1B: 08-13-21-27-31 powerball is 05, Good luck White Hills

ROSEBUD99

(08/21/2001; 09:44:07 MDT - Msg ID: 60005)

RE: White Hills lotto

wow, 175 mill. even after spliting it and sending the gov his share of FRN, that would still buy alot of bullion. Wonder if MK keeps that much on hand?? Hey that could do more advertising for gold than the ad campaign that the gold people do. potential headline..... Arizona powerball winner takes lump sum payment and converts it ALL to gold.
The wealth of ages !!! Count me in !!

ROSEBUD99

(08/21/2001; 09:48:12 MDT - Msg ID: 60006)

lotto

That got me thinking.... Then in the interviews for all the papers and networks one could air all the GATA questions. Everyone would read about the winner and then be aware of the gold selling by the gov. Bet O'neil would have a harder time dodging the issue then !!!!

BR549

(08/21/2001; 09:51:42 MDT - Msg ID: 60007)

25 or 50 Basis points cut?

http://federalreserve.gov/fomc/fundsrate.htm
The Fed's historical data may indicate a fifty basis points decrease today at the FOMC meeting. The rate has declined from a high of 8% in July of 1990 to a low 3% in
September of 1992. In April of 1992 the rate stood at today's rate of 3.75% and the Fed cut 50 basis points.

This is IMHO strictly based on what has happened in the past. Most of the experts and the bond market predict a 25 basis points cut.

The table for Change, 1990 to present may be found at the link above.

Sierra Madre

(08/21/2001; 10:50:51 MDT - Msg ID: 60009)

BR from Cornfield Country...

Thanks for considering my forecast on the History Channel.

Well, we differ, but I sense your goodwill and integrity so I will not respond with sarcasm but with as much kindness as possible.

I do perceive a political agenda on that Channel. But to go into that, would take us astray from the topics of this Forum. Nothing is so susceptible of sophisticated manipulation as "History". "History" varies from historian to historian. Depends on who you read and what your views are.

This has been going on since Herodotus, the "Father of History". Some Greeks liked him, others hated him and called him all sorts of names. And let us remember, that the victors write "History", not the defeated.

About having an "open mind". I don't read or listen with an "open" mind; I flatter myself perhaps, but I listen with a mind, period. Not an open mind - a critical mind. And I frequently find unpopular ideas quite interesting and even valid.

Lastly, I can sincerely tell you that I do hope I am entirely mistaken and if so, will recognize the fact on this Forum. But wait and see and listen, and I think I will be right: the thrust of the "Gold!" series is: "gold WAS the object of man's lust for thousands of years; TODAY, it's merely a metal for industrial use, and for use as jewelry. As an investment, its days are OVER."

Sierra

CoBra(too)

(08/21/2001; 11:06:51 MDT - Msg ID: 60010)

AG in a Pickle - Whatever he decides today ...

it won't sway in any way the concept of the main play -
well, isn't it always sad to see some brilliant guys overstay their welcome. Do I feel that AG will be sharing the fate of Irving Fisher in history? Sadly, I do!

Quote from Bill Buckler as of Aug. 17.:
"Since the $US Gold price topped out in early 1996, the world economy has NEVER ONCE been in a position where a financial crisis was not going on somewhere. Since 1996, we have seen financial crises in every part of the world EXCEPT ONE. No one has had to step in from the outside to rescue the U.S. DOLLAR. Just as well, there's no one big enough to do it.

The last time that the U.S. Dollar had to be rescued (in the same manner as Asian currencies had to be rescued in the late 1990s and South American currencies are being "rescued" at present) was at the end of the 1970s. It to 20% plus U.S. rates to do it.

Such a "cure" today would be far worse than the disease. The Privateer has stated on many occasions that the one development that was SURE to bring about a revival of the $US Gold price would be a concerted dive in the U.S. Dollar itself. We are on the brink of witnessing just such a dive.

That is why $US Gold is looking so good technically. That is why the outcome of the FOMC meeting on August 21 is so potentially dangerous, no matter what the Fed decides to do. And that is why what we are going through now is VERY likely to prove to be the last few days of calm before the storm." -unquote

How(e) true, as auspec would say - cb2

PS: BR549 - hoping my spit balls as such don't annoy you too much...and BTW love your input and you may have a deal
with the Venus, though I feel L.A. would've gobbled 'her' up
-as you can feel the original fat lady (singing)may become the spiel of tomorrow's sorrows beginning! Take care, my friend.

site steward

(08/21/2001; 11:06:52 MDT - Msg ID: 60011)

Review of gold in international trade

In the last three months, according to U.S. trade data from the Department of Commerce, there has been a net export of nonmonetary gold from the United States totalling 170 tonnes. (i.e., not including gold being transferred between official agencies as monetary settlement, if any.)

During that time U.S. miners unearthed only about 90 tonnes.

Year to date (January to June), the trade data reveals a net export of about 300 tonnes of nonmonetary gold.

Have you staked your personal claim to what remains up for grabs? As you should know, gold is worldly and in vogue -- the hard asset of choice for any prudential portfolio.

R.

White Hills

(08/21/2001; 12:06:55 MDT - Msg ID: 60012)

ROSEBUD99

Here is your number. Ticket 1C, 03-16-18-26-39 powerball is 29, Good Luck White Hills

escapethematrix

(08/21/2001; 12:25:15 MDT - Msg ID: 60013)

Fed lowers by 25bp.............

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AO4Kk4xNbVS5TLiBG08/21 14:13
U.S. Federal Open Market Committee Statement: Full Text
By Washington newsroom
Washington, Aug. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The following is the full text of the statement released today by the Federal Reserve:
The Federal Open Market Committee at its meeting today decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.5 percent. In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 25 basis point reduction in the discount rate to 3 percent. Today's action by the FOMC brings the decline in the target federal funds rate since the beginning of the year to 300 basis points.
Household demand has been sustained, but business profits and capital spending continue to weaken and growth abroad is slowing, weighing on the U.S. economy. The associated easing of pressures on labor and product markets is expected to keep inflation contained.
Although long-term prospects for productivity growth and the economy remain favorable, the committee continues to believe that against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future.
In taking the discount rate action, the Federal Reserve Board approved requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Chicago, Kansas City and Dallas.

Gandalf the White

(08/21/2001; 12:42:34 MDT - Msg ID: 60014)

Note the YAHOO wording of the FOMC announcement

The initial wording was "a slight downward easing", and as the charts began to show a dropoff CLIFF picture, the wording was changed to "The Dow and Nasdaq have dropped 60 pts and 15 pts on the announcement, respectively, sending both near session lows...." Anyone want to buy stocks now?
Where are the DIPSTERS ?
<;-)

BR549

(08/21/2001; 13:00:48 MDT - Msg ID: 60015)

History

Sierra-

I meant no offense by my earlier post to you. I was justa pickin' at you. The open mind comments were directed at those who do not listen to new ideas such as the benefits of personal ownership of gold because of having their minds made up in advance. Listening with a critical mind is what most of the posters on this site do because they realize how the media functions. I hope you're wrong about the gold series as I have really been looking forward to watching it.

If history is no better of a predictor of interest rates forecasts than what I predicted today, then I must be wrong about the Gold series also.

As of now the markets are down. It looks as if the markets may have also predicated a 50 basis points decrease.

cb2-

It is past time for AG to go. Then he can have more time in the hot tub with Andrea. Picture that image huh? In fact he could have left halfway through Clinton's last term as a hero. The reason he didn't--maybe the PTB wouldn't let him.

When will he go--perhaps when he runs out of "gold" busting SDR Certificates at the end of the year at the current spending rate.

Venus of Willendorf is currently still available, although several L.A. galleries have an interest. Artist approves 30% discount for gold knowing that you would provide her a good home.

As always, a pleasure my friend.

Netking

(08/21/2001; 13:37:02 MDT - Msg ID: 60016)

Gold miners face tough new world

http://afr.com/companies/2001/08/22/FFXJSQE0NQC.htmlSnippit:
Normandy Mining, Australia's biggest gold miner, warned yesterday of further industry rationalisation and unveiled plans to seek a US stockmarket listing after suffering its second successive annual loss. . .

The rush to consolidate locally comes as foreign companies, in the light of the weak $A, eye potential acquisitions in the Australian market. . .

Goldfields managing director Dr Peter Cassidy said industry consolidation was a natural progression in the drive for efficiency . . .

escapethematrix

(08/21/2001; 14:03:55 MDT - Msg ID: 60017)

EU May Hit U.S. With $4 Billion In Penalties

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A37578-2001Aug20.htmlSnippet:

The United States has warned the EU that pursuing the course of multibillion-dollar trade sanctions would provoke a wave of retaliatory measures by Congress that could disrupt global trade and plunge the world into an economic crisis.
U.S. Special Trade Representative Robert B. Zoellick has likened any EU sanctions of that magnitude to "dropping a nuclear bomb" on the global trading system.

Let's see....Euro rising vs. dollar....Interest rate spread now a full 1% in EU's favor, with more currency debasement promised by Fed....US markets selling off....GATA lawsuit..
Physical birth of Euro looming.....Possible trade war with EU.... The trail is indeed heating up....Got Gold??

Sierra Madre

(08/21/2001; 15:17:07 MDT - Msg ID: 60018)

BR549....no offense taken!

Sorry if I sounded offended. Nothing of the sort!

I have become very skeptical of receiving any truth from the media. The History Channel is locked into the Establishment. Therefore, I doubt.

It is truly amazing how the world's civilization is now manipulated by the rulers, whoever they are. I find it remarkable that Universities, Politicians, Economists, the Financial Establishment, the research think-tanks, the various engines of government, the publishing houses, the newspapers, the T.V. and radio media are so tightly controlled that they are virtually unanimous in all opinions. Not only in the U.S., but all over the world, dissent is practically non-existent or very effectively suppressed. How has this astounding accomplishment come to be? (A great and notable exception is comment on the Internet, and this Forum is outstanding in that respect)

It seems to me that since the world has been living in a financial "drug culture" - a life progressively disconnected from reality - during the past 90 years or so (since 1914), that this reliance on the paper money "drug" has atrophied the capacity for independent thought. Mistaken actions no longer produce bad consequences. Financially, everything can be "restructured" somehow. Even personal bankruptcy is no longer the total disaster and recipe for starvation that it used to be. On the contrary, it frees the bankrupt and makes him a candidate for - more credit!

"In Xanadu did Kubla Khan
A stately pleasure dome decree...
Where Alph the Sacred river ran
Through caverns measureless to man
Down to a sunless sea..."

Coleridge was on opium when he wrote that. An untimely knock on his door broke the spell and the rest of his poem vanished from his mind.

But, we have been living a paper opium dream for almost a century.

The world has been living in a "pleasure dome" that gets every day more pleasant, for so many years...Be Happy, Why Worry? The interest rate just went down!

We ain't using the grey matter; it's not necessary; everything comes out right in the end - AG will take care of that. Dream on, Beautiful Dreamer, and list unto me!

Alas, the Dream will become a Nightmare shortly. Drugs always end that way. So it shall be.

Thanks for reading!

Sierra

goldenigma

(08/21/2001; 15:29:49 MDT - Msg ID: 60019)

test

Netking

(08/21/2001; 15:42:46 MDT - Msg ID: 60020)

Stocks Slump After Fed Rate Cut

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010821/bs/markets_stocks_dc_3166.htmlStocks tumbled shortly before the close on Tuesday, putting the market on track to end at a 20-week low, after the U.S Federal Reserve cut interest rates for a seventh time this year, but failed to indicate an economic recovery is near at hand.

In addition, the Fed said business profits and capital profits continue to weaken and that growth abroad is slowing.

"The economy is in a precarious state,"' said Cummins Catherwood, who oversees $750 million for Rutherford Brown & Catherwood. "Investors are retreating from the market until we get some kind of positive catalyst."
------------------------------------------------------------
. . . and already the flow on effect starts to ripple through Australasia & Asia:
http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?u

Econoclast

(08/21/2001; 15:59:58 MDT - Msg ID: 60021)

Mr. Kosares, I hope this isn't stepping over the line.

I believe that I have seen this letter alluded to previously on this forum, however, I just recently received a copy of correspondence between Blanchard's CEO and the World Gold Council. The letter states that The Blanchard Economic Research Unit, with assistance from gold analysts, is completing a study that arrives at "some terribly negative conclusions about gold bullion". They then proceeded to ask the WGC to rebut the findings and answer the question "Are there any good reasons why an investor should buy gold bullion?"

Because the WGC can/will not address their question, Blanchard turned down the WGC's marketing money and has even gone so far as to say they will no longer maintain gold inventories or market and sell bullion.

The letter goes on to say that Blanchard has concluded that gold industry insiders� interests are no longer aligned with gold investors, the world's confidence in gold has been destroyed, deliberate price fixing and manipulation but no actionable conspiracy due to sovereignty of CB's, blah, blah, blah. On the final page, in bold, they say "gold bullion has very little upside potential and its downside potential is much greater than you think".

When the largest dealer in the country throws in the towel, what does that mean?
Are we truly at the point of maximum bearishness, which is the beginning of a bull market?
Has Blanchard joined the ranks of the shorts?
Is gold truly relegated to the History Channel?
Why am I receiving this letter now, when gold is $20 off its lows and it seems that the low is a true and tested bottom for the market?

I read bullish analysis of the gold market every single day. I could easily list a dozen reasons that could raise the gold price, even independently of the other reasons. We all know that the only thing that has kept the market down is an expensive, coordinated effort that appears to be running out of ammo even as I type.

Why did Blanchard stick it out so long to give up now when the writing is on the wall?
If they truly had their clients� best interest in mind, wouldn't they be doing what USAGOLD is doing, and advising everyone to load up at these fire sale prices?

Are they implicitly advising their clients to dump, in an attempt to coax out more physical into the market?

The letter I received is making my head spin with questions. The answers that come to mind do not reflect positively on the (ex) largest dealer in the country.

Mr. Kosares, I realize that you may not wish to address the subject of a competitor, but if you do care to share any thoughts that you may have about this truly unprecedented situation, I would appreciate it.

It appears from the letter, that the WGC was going to give Blanchard most, if not all, of the $55 million to conduct the marketing campaign for them. As it appears that you are a true "gold advocate" as well as a reputable (and large) dealer, that money should be coming your way. I have confidence that with that kind of budget, you could accomplish something. But is that a crazy thought? Are your views deemed "too politically incorrect" and therefore you are to be shunned by the establishment (of which the WGC is part). If that is the case, and yet they did offer the money to Blanchard, again, what does that say about Blanchard?

To All:
The more I reflect on the contents of this letter, the more I get the feeling that there is something "not kosher" about it. The only times I have been wrong in my life are when I did not trust my instincts. I really believe that this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to accumulate gold priced at far less than its true value is coming to a rapidly approaching end. I will admit that the first bullion I ever traded FRN's for was from Blanchard. Even if they were still in the business, there is something not right over there (I have not bought from them for years). We all owe it to ourselves to conduct business with honest, ethical people who believe both in what they are selling, and that they are giving their customers value for price.
As this post is about a (ex)competitor of our host, I feel that I must end it with a plug for USAGOLD. Give our host a call and remove some physical from the market. That will only help the value of any other ounces in your possession.
I will be doing the same.

Cavan Man

(08/21/2001; 16:33:04 MDT - Msg ID: 60022)

A Golden Oldie (more true today)

Hello Econoclast"Future generations will feel that the 1980's was a time of easy living for the US, that we lived beyond our means, we failed to live up to our responsibilities and we failed to be realistic in facing up to our economic problems....We complain about the third-world countries and the amount of debt they have; but in one decade the United States of America went from the largest creditor nation to the largest debtor nation in the world. That's an enormous swing and I think it forebodes ill for us, and for the stability of the international monetary system, because the dollar is the reserve currency of the world."

John Connally
December, 1988

Netking

(08/21/2001; 17:05:32 MDT - Msg ID: 60023)

USD / Euro

http://www.forexdirectory.net/chartsfx.htmlThe Euro continues to firm . . . last powering up to 91.76 against the USD(period low of 90.72). The next support level appears to be around 92 . . . the way things are heading, this should be breached in the very short term. Euro futures for the early part of next year appear to up to 96 against the USD.

Gold futures up to $282 +5.90
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$GOLD,uu[h,a]daolyymy[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]

Got gold yet? - Netking

CoBra(too)

(08/21/2001; 17:17:18 MDT - Msg ID: 60024)

Not News & (personal) Views ...

Gotta repeat the Privateers last paragraph as they are likely to be seen as prophetic - and as usual long after the fact.

quote
"That is why $US Gold is looking so good technically. That is why the outcome of the FOMC meeting on August 21 is so potentially dangerous, no matter what the Fed decides to do. And that is why what we are going through now is VERY likely to prove to be the last few days of calm before the storm." -unquote

In essence, it seems the old Greenspin magic finally went the way of all mirages, miracles and spin - to the dustbin of history. The super-hero of the greatest boom, ever - kazoom - overnight becomes Mr. Doom, and forever
stardom is hard to behold, as he shoud've been told.

If I may say, briefly talked with MK today and we've agreed how much more the participants of this site are prepared for - what our economic future holds in store. Even if I was a goldbug before, I might have thrown in the towel long before, hadn't I found this site, the Cafe and Gata, I might not sleep as tight tonight.

Thank you all for your "precious" input and thanks to USAGOLD's hard workers - ha, you too Randy, you're a real gem and so is George C., as well as Gillian and Marie - who've all helped to keep me on the right side of the coming tide.

Once in a while, I guess our hosts deserve some praise too - and as a very satisfied client I feel I may express gratitude, which was overdue - thank you cb2

Disclaimer ... caveat emptor! ... and don't construe the above as a solicitation to buy or sell at CPM, though I don't know a better place ;>) ... do you?

auspec

(08/21/2001; 17:25:15 MDT - Msg ID: 60025)

White Hills

Found some gold, eh? Are you up towards the Chloride area or in the mountains on the way to lake Mohave? I remember the Oatman mining area also. Are you scratching and digging or using exactly what means of 'mining'? I'll gratefully take part in your lottery if not too late, thanks.
Regards!

Sancho

(08/21/2001; 17:29:56 MDT - Msg ID: 60026)

Gandalf the White

Your rendition of BR 549's Homework was very good. Can you come up with some prose explaining everybody rising to a crescendo of excitement and exultation on an up gold move of a couple paltry dollars(less than one per cent) and then the successive gloom and doom of a similar drop a day or two later and life such as it is going on like that for several years. This whiplash is killing me, I want to see some ACTION!!!!!!

USAGOLD

(08/21/2001; 17:37:09 MDT - Msg ID: 60027)

Econoclast. . .

Before I comment extensively on the text you just posted with regard to Blanchard & Co., I would like to take a look at the actual letter you mention.

I can make a brief comment however at this time. Please keep in mind that these comments are based upon what you've posted which I have yet to verify.

If Blanchard indeed believes what you outlined, (after asking the obvious question about what they might be smoking over there) I would say that these conclusions comes from a crude understanding of what is going on in the gold market, and that if they would like to gain a better understanding, spending some time at this Forum and paging through our archives might be time well-spent.

Secondly, if any Blanchard clients, are scratching their heads over that letter, we invite them to come contact USAGOLD for their gold purchases. We haven't changed our position one iota. Every attempt to hold down gold in favor of a fiat currency in history has ended in failure. There is not doubt that this one will too. I think if Mr. James Blanchard (the man from whom Blanchard & Co. draws its name) were alive today, he would have politely mentioned the 1960s to this group and the attempt back then to hold down gold (which ended in complete and utter failure), the breaking of the London Gold Pool, and the subsequent explosion in the gold price, (from $35 to $875 once the lid came off) -- a set of circumstances very similar to today's. The last time we heard from Mr. Blanchard is when he ordered in "The Footsteps of Giants" just before his untimely death -- too bad as I had been looking forward to discussing that book with him. As it is, his last book, if I recall correctly, is titled: "The Confessions of an Unrepentant Gold Bug."

It seems that some are repenting. No, my fellow goldmeisters, we welcome Blanchard's clientele. We haven't changed our opinions about gold in the least. In fact, we are more solid today than we ever were here at Centennial Precious Metals/USAGOLD.

We welcome Blanchard clients' gold business. If you want to deal with people who still believe in gold, we're the ones. We're not going to cave-on on you.

Thanks, Econoclast, and please forward me that letter so I can comment more extensively. The World Gold Council references are of particular interest to me.

Solomon Weaver

(08/21/2001; 17:45:53 MDT - Msg ID: 60028)

CAN THE US MANAGE A SOFT LANDING FOR THE DOLLAR?

http://www.prudentbear.com/international.htmGood piece by Marshall Auerbach at the Prudent Bear site on international issues .... this weeks topic is the dollar.

SNIPPET:

"The experience of Asia in 1997/98 should raise doubts about the likelihood of the soft dollar scenario, in spite of all of the benefits sketched out by Stephen Jen. Harvard professor Jeffrey Sachs noted that Asia's currency crisis was not fundamentally driven, but more a case of self-fulfilling withdrawal of short-term loans, one that was fuelled by each investor's recognition that all other investors were simultaneously withdrawing their claims from the region. In essence, panicked Western investors and opportunistic members of the leveraged speculating community created the equivalent of a vast bank run on the region. There was no "fundamental" cause for the massive devaluations that ensued in the wake of this run, the only "cause" in reality being a violent shift in sentiment, which fed on itself. Only after the fact of the withdrawal were the arguments about lack of transparency, crony capitalism, large current account deficits, and a fundamentally flawed growth model constructed to rationalise this panic."

Worth a look for those who have time.....poor old Sol.

The Stranger

(08/21/2001; 17:57:28 MDT - Msg ID: 60029)

M.K. and/or Randy

Have you received email from me in the last 24 hours? Thanks.

CoBra(too)

(08/21/2001; 18:04:37 MDT - Msg ID: 60030)

Re - WGC-vs Blanchard

@ Econclast - read the letter a couple of weeks ago and
after some deliberation found it to be a pretty sarcastic response to WGC's offer to Blanchard.

After years of following WGC, or GFMS I came to the conclusion they are the hedging producers community "press".

A unity to suppress the real value of gold as a monetary asset and not as trinkets and bracelets adorning lots of real Indians (and others).

A great Midas just popped up at the cafe - go figure -
best cb2

R Powell

(08/21/2001; 18:08:06 MDT - Msg ID: 60031)

Rate cut and PM prices

Silver opened today on the Comex at 4.14
closed at 4.18 and is currently trading
in Sydney at 4.24
Gold is also up $2.10 to 276.80
Too bad the FOMC doesn't cut rates more often!
Rich

Cavan Man

(08/21/2001; 18:10:50 MDT - Msg ID: 60032)

Hello The Stranger!!!

It is heart warming to see your post again Dave. Hope you and your family are healthy, wealthy and wise. Kind regards....CM

site steward

(08/21/2001; 18:13:22 MDT - Msg ID: 60033)

Stranger...

Yes. In fact, would you believe as recently as the last 24 seconds?

I have been asked to thank you for your generous offer, but the chamber orchestra you saw in the lobby is booked through the end of the year.
:-)

R.

R Powell

(08/21/2001; 18:23:30 MDT - Msg ID: 60034)

Hello to The Stranger

Any thoughts on the state of affairs concerning gold and silver? Also wondering about where the big money flows with lower interest rates?
If you have any thoughts and the time to post, thanks. Anyone else??
Thanks
Rich

Gandalf the White

(08/21/2001; 18:36:35 MDT - Msg ID: 60035)

Sancho's Question (msg#: 60026)

"Can you come up with some prose explaining everybody rising to a crescendo of excitement and exultation on an up gold move of a couple paltry dollars(less than one per cent) and then the successive gloom and doom of a similar drop a day or two later and life such as it is going on like that for several years. This whiplash is killing me, I want to see some ACTION!!!!!!"
********Certainly ! Such Goldheart reaction on an up move of a paltry increase in the price of gold is wishful anticipation of the forthcoming realism of King Aragorn III's vision of the "Thunder in the Night" proper pricing of the one and only instrument of true wealth, PHYSICAL GOLD. I have not the ability to see into the black hearts of the Nazguls that dump tonnes of paper gold on the COMEX Gold Futures to maintain control of the price of PHYSICAL GOLD, and do not understand their thoughts. However, age has taught this dumb ol'e Engineer a number of lessons about wealth. Pertinence, persistence and patience are items that assist one in overcoming the ups and downs of the markets. One must look upon the "down days" as another opportunity to gather more PHYSICAL GOLD as the price today is far far less that the amount of effort that I would have to expend to obtain an object consisting of 0.9999 purity of elemental Au. Now to go watch The HISTORY Channel to see the expended efforts of many others in their quests for PHYSICAL GOLD.
---
<;-)

auspec

(08/21/2001; 18:37:19 MDT - Msg ID: 60036)

sector

Per your post on 8-19-01:
"Perhaps this is easy for me to believe this activity {gold SDR games} since I also am the author of sophisticated fraud detection software---Preemptive Selling. This analysis conclusively shows COMEX irregularities. Once one visits a financial crime scene such as this, one gets attuned to a whole new lexicon and language---the language and domain of manipulators." END

My comments: You must have really fine tuned this software to be able to pick out a particular fraud/manipulation in the midst of rampant and ongoing market deceptions! Do you have some sort of scale or meter that quantifies the full spectrum of manipulations? For example, mild cronyism/deceit would be Lou Crookheiser and buddies front-running some Friday night stock recommendations, and a more moderate offense might involve a particular Lady and her Cattle Futures {how'd she stay out of pork bellies, protecting her own?}. The extreme end of fraud would have to be represented by ...........uh, er,.........ah, ....possibly, maybe,.......current fiasco by ESF, BIS, Treasury, Summers, Rubin, International MF, Clinton, and MaGoo? Can your scale really go that high? WOW!

In all seriousness, we hope to hear much more about your fraud detection software. Most interesting!
Kind Regards,
auspec

Solomon Weaver

(08/21/2001; 18:43:30 MDT - Msg ID: 60037)

(No Subject)

Econoclast

RE: Blanchard Letter.

I am working with very little information here....so I hope the letter you describe might be posted soon....could help to drive our thoughts away from the circle of speculations surrounding SDRs.

I sort of see companies like Blanchard and CPM (and several others who I could name but leave off in respect of our host) as the most honest of many. They are in essence brokers...they will make more money if they encourage us to trade in and out of their investments....but they do not....typically they issue fairly modest newsletters and mailings (and sometimes nice websites, none of which hold a candle to USA Gold) in which they may promote some nice deals....promoting them of course to the "converted investor". They will often point to current events as a reminder to the investor that gold more than ever represents a strategic investment in a portfolio which is geared towards protecting excess capital in advance of and during a bear market. The best of them to a tee seem to refuse giving any type of "price target"...something which is extremely common in stock broker materials.

If it is at all true that the WGC would have considered entrusting a single dominant company with close to $55 million of promotional money to promote gold...the primary message is that the WGC has absolutely no imagination and no guts on their own to really promote gold. The next issue is that such massive amounts of money would severely change the culture of a company like Blanchard....and it would put them out on a limb in public as being bullish on gold. What is wrong with being bullish? Well, honestly speaking, Gold bull mentality have "appeared to be wrong" for many years.

What is the very best form of advertisement and promotion??? Personal referals.....we all do it all the time. Keeping up with the Jones family too. Now how many of us have tried to convince a dear friend or a colleage (who may have just gotten fleeced in the stock market) that an investment in a few gold coins is "an asset without a corresponding liability"....I mean that knowledge is the real kicker right??? (remember the old Sinatra song...OH they can't take that away from me....always runs through my head)...I can just see it now...a $10 million Ad campaign running prime time....beautiful gold flipping in the air...wooosh wooosh wooosh...and then falling....landing in the hand of a nice old Grandpa who with a big smile opens up his hand with a big smile....a little tiny hand reaches in to touch it and a little 5 year old with big eyes of wonder looks up at dear old Gramps....then the voice over says..."thinking of leaving some of your retirement money to the family?....GOLD....the investment that doesn't bear a corresponding liability." 15 seconds...that is all you need....run it over and over...the same simple spot....a single gold coin.....people will go to bed....and suddenly after seeing the ad every night for a week will suddenly wake up and wonder...nice ad..but what does that thing about "corresponding liability"..

...here's another one....if the WGC has $55 to advertise with....why not make a deal with Regis.....all winners of $250,000 on the millionaire show have the option of getting a 1000 ounce gold ingot (and of course, the decision dejour will require and announcement as to the current spot price of gold on that day). WGC pays the difference on the spread about $250 per ounce....Hey and don't you think we could get the Federal Government to agree that the winner of the gold can defer tax payments in fiat until the asset is liquidated???? I mean, a guy like Regis should be able to negotiate some kind of sweetheart deal for the sake of the most popular game show ....I mean even Senators like that show.

Or how about this one.....Ford is in trouble right???? OK....together with the WGC....An ad that says.....go down to your local Ford dealer...fill out a form to get a 1/2 price gold eagle coin (1/4 ounce). Each purchase enters you in a drawing to be one of 1000 people to get a $10,000 rebate on a Ford of their choice...and the grand prize winner will be given a 1000 ounce ingot of pure gold in the shape of the Ford logo. It is not called a sweepstakes...it is called a Lottery.

These are the crazy kind of ideas that gold needs....and the WGC needs to be brave....Blanchard CEO has it in his gut that the problem of gold promotion is not in the money to do it...it is in the lack of real support of Gold at the WGC.....

Honestly speaking....would we all want to see MK get $55 million to spend on promoting gold.....first impulse is "of course we would"....but then go further....could it backfire on him? For now, USA Gold is a rather obscure site....can we really handle it if the masses started hitting it every day.....

just food for thought in the end....an MK, if you do get some say in all of this at the WGC....well, we are here to help you figure out how to us some Ad money wisely.....

Poor old Solomon

The Stranger

(08/21/2001; 18:59:36 MDT - Msg ID: 60038)

site steward and Cavan Man and a thought about Strong Dollar "Policy"

site steward - Thanks.

Cavan Man - as usual, you are very kind. Thanks. The Stranger always does precisely as well as his investments, no better, no worse. Hope you are doing well, too!

All - I'm a little rusty as to what has already been discussed in these halls lately, so forgive me if I offer nothing new. But I think way too much has been made of the "strong dollar policy". In a world of currency traders, highly leveraged hedge funds and monster-sized derivatives transactions, just what is it we think those men behind the White House curtains can do about the value of the dollar, anyway? In truth, they are powerless to impose any dollar policy, strong or otherwise, on the markets, and anyone who runs serious amounts of money knows it.

So, proclaiming a weak dollar "policy" only risks pricking a currency bubble which is every bit as dangerous, in its way, as was the recent NASDAQ bubble, probably more so. There ain't no way George W. wants to take the rap for doing something like that.

No, as the president recently said, the free market will decide the proper exchange value of the dollar, just as only the free market can.

BR549

(08/21/2001; 18:59:52 MDT - Msg ID: 60039)

The Medium is the Message

Sierra Madre (msg#: 60018)-

When I was in school, many moons ago, I wrote an essay on Marshall McLuhan's The Medium is the Message.

When Marshall McLuhan wrote these words in 1963, the World Wide Web lay far in the future.

"By putting our physical bodies inside our extended nervous systems, by means of electric media, we set up a dynamic by which all previous technologies that are mere extensions of hands and feet and teeth, will be translated into information systems. Electromagnetic technology requires utter human docility and quiescence of meditation such as befits an organism that now wears its brain outside its skull and its nerves outside its hide. We must serve our electric technology with the same servo-mechanistic fidelity with which we once served our coracle, our canoe, our typography, and all other extensions of our physical organs. But, there is a difference here. Those previous technologies were partial and fragmentary. The electric is total and inclusive. An external consensus or conscience is now as necessary as private consciousness. With the new media, however, it is now possible to store and to translate everything; and as for speed, that is no problem. No further acceleration is possible this side of the light barrier." Mcluhan, Understanding Media - The Extensions of Man, 1963

I think that we are in perfect agreement as to the modoern media and I look forward to discussing it in detail. The concept of the value of gold has much to do with this modern conspiracy between the Fed and the modern media.

Back after the History Channel

admin

(08/21/2001; 19:23:18 MDT - Msg ID: 60040)

Client Letter. . . .Blanchard & Co.

Sir:
If I am not mistaken, Blanchard & Co were bought out by General Electric
quite some time ago. This might explain their gold view as derivative-loaded

GE Capital probably does not want gold to rise and interest rate futures
etc.
go haywire. Just a thought.

Yours truly,
C.P. (a customer and site follower)

- - - - - -

Our thanks to CP.

White Hills

(08/21/2001; 19:24:48 MDT - Msg ID: 60041)

auspec

Your number is Ticket 1D, Numbers 01-02-12-16-46 powerball is 23, I was in Gold Basin area just off the road from Dolan Springs to Meadville west of Kingman about 40-50 miles, as a former resident of Mohave County Good luck on the drawing, I think the odds are about 80,000,000 to one but then again the odds were far greater for being born. If we are alive we are already winners. Talk at you later in the week. White Hills

BR549

(08/21/2001; 19:34:35 MDT - Msg ID: 60042)

History Channel Gold-

Spain was number one in the world when Philip II of Spain reigned and ---"Then the gold ran out and Spain was bankrupt."

Any lesson for modern times?

pdeep

(08/21/2001; 19:41:58 MDT - Msg ID: 60043)

The Medium is the Massage

Is the message.

Black Blade

(08/21/2001; 19:42:02 MDT - Msg ID: 60044)

RE: Econoclast (Blanchard Letter), and The Stranger

RE: Econoclast

From what I know of Jim Blanchard, I am surprised at the current philosophy of the company that bears his name. He was one of the early pioneers to advocate the legal ownership of gold. I suspect if his body were exhumed it would be obvious that he has been spinning in his grave. The position stated in that letter is the very opposite of everything that he stood for. Very strange.

RE: The Stranger

Where the hell ya been? Good to see you back.

Watching the last half hour of GOLD on History Channel.

BR549

(08/21/2001; 19:59:27 MDT - Msg ID: 60045)

Gold History Part 1 of 4

So anything slanted towards the anti-goldbug agenda in the first episode of GOLD on the History Channel?

Black Blade

(08/21/2001; 20:03:23 MDT - Msg ID: 60046)

RE: BR549 (8/21/01; 19:34:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 60042)

History Channel Gold-

Spain was number one in the world when Philip II of Spain reigned and ---"Then the gold ran out and Spain was bankrupt."

Any lesson for modern times?

Black Blade: Yes. Spain became wealthy with gold from the America's yet they became "Fat and Lazy." They lost the talents and skills of producers. When the gold was gone, all that was left was a desperate nation in a vastly changes world. The lesson in my point of view is that in the US we are now mostly a "service economy" with very little in talent and skill necessary to survive in the "Real World." If the economy of the US were to fail, what "Real World" skill do you have to survive? We are no longer an agrarian society. Think about it. Gold is insurance not to be sqaundered.

Black Blade

(08/21/2001; 20:11:17 MDT - Msg ID: 60047)

Forbes Body Count

http://www.forbes.com/2001/01/30/layoffs.html
The "Bone Pile" is nearly 600,000 deep. Looking ugly as the Recession deepens and the Bear growls louder. The Federal Reserve's pathetic attempt at propping up the economy with scraps from their table has failed miserably as the markets plumment in response. Even Pied Piper Abby Joseph Cohen has capitulated and admitted defeat this morning by lowering her rosy view of thye market indices. She now says that high energy costs and lower earning have done in the economy. In effect she is crying "Uncle."

- Black Blade

Sierra Madre

(08/21/2001; 20:31:58 MDT - Msg ID: 60048)

BR549....How was the History Channel program?

I hope you liked it.

I missed it. Perhaps I'll catch tomorrow's segment.

Anyway, if you think was OK, or great, that's fine with me.

I posted my "warning" to show I don't trust these people at all. If you think the program acceptable, then I'll suppose it is acceptable. I don't want to argue! I just thought you, and others at this Forum, would not find it acceptable.

I may be mistaken. I hope I am.

Sierra

Black Blade

(08/21/2001; 20:35:28 MDT - Msg ID: 60049)

Argentina pays workers in bonds

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1501000/1501239.stm
Snippit:

As Argentina's talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) drag on - with still no word on whether the country will get a much-needed aid package - the situation at home is getting worse. From this week 150,000 people who work for the state of Buenos Aires won't get all of their salary paid in cash. Some of it will now be paid in one-year bonds, called "patacones", nicknamed after a long defunct currency.

McDonalds is set to accept the new currency. Already McDonalds in Buenos Aires is planning to accept the currency and is launching a special meal deal called the "Patacombo". The fast food chain McDonalds will also accept them in exchange for its new Patacombo meal - two cheeseburgers, french fries and a drink.

Black Blade: Yeah, that'll work. Cheeseburgers, fries, and a coke every night. Hmmm�

uponroof

(08/21/2001; 20:38:15 MDT - Msg ID: 60050)

History Channel GOLD!

Pretty good I thought. Some very interesting facts on Pizzarro and General Custer and how gold was behind all the moves they made.

poor old solomon. speaking of the WGC

Notice one of the commentators, for the 'GOLD!' documentary, was from the World Gold Council? Strange they can provide an 'expert' commentator but can't provide an advertisement (commercial) between segments. Merril Lynch and Blanchard were smart enough to sieze the moment.....but our 52 million dollar WGC strategists were not interested in buying any TV time. Those aholes would've run an ad for jewellery anyway.

btw-The Dutch sold 4 tonnes of gold last week...and we moved up double digits

BR549

(08/21/2001; 20:49:39 MDT - Msg ID: 60051)

History of Gold on History Channel Part 1--"Then the gold ran out and Spain was bankrupt." Any lesson for modern times?

Black Blade (msg#: 60046)

Black Blade: "Yes. Spain became wealthy with gold from the America's yet they became "Fat and Lazy." They lost the talents and skills of producers. When the gold was gone, all that was left was a desperate nation in a vastly changes world. The lesson in my point of view is that in the US we are now mostly a "service economy" with very little in talent and skill necessary to survive in the "Real World."

Do you mean----that we have sacrificed our expertise in manufacturing to the rest of the world in exchange for becoming a service economy?

Do you mean---like the modern arrearage burdened debt ridden gluttonous US consumers who borrow money on their only real assets, such as real estate from banksters, to reduce their credit card debt where they can buy more new cars and other goods and services beyond their means.

Do you mean--the country that via GATT and NAFTA has given away their technology and manufacturing technology and advantages to the rest of the world?

Do you mean---a service oriented economy like what the banksters, shysters, insurance companies and federal government represents that do not have any immediate GDP benefit to its citizens?

Do you mean---the US economy that ships its manufacturing productivity, even for defense systems, to foreign manufacturing because it is cheaper for bottom line oriented US sub-contractors and corporations because it is profit at all costs and the US total economy and well being be damned?

Yeah, well, sort�a

@ALL---
For those that watched The History Channel about GOLD, any opinions of whether this first segment was biased against goldbugs?

sector

(08/21/2001; 20:52:47 MDT - Msg ID: 60052)

@auspec Actually The Algorithm Does Return Degrees of Manipulation

http://www.goldensextant.com/commentaryBA.html#anchor65565What makes it sensitive is the relative nature of the test. If LBMA sells gold down X and COMEX sells it down 3X (from the PM fix) then we get a hit for that day.

Examining the 15 year history of COMEX (each day) trading one finds two epochs---In the first trading displayed essentially normal counter trend and preemptive selling. In the second epoch there were huge preemptive selling events far higher in frequency that any other time in the data range. These spikes in preemptive selling pierced the three and even four standard deviation levels. In this data series a four standard deviation selling event would be expected to happen only once in 833 years of trading. The intervention began in earnest within weeks of the board seat assumptions of William McDonough and Alan Greenspan at the Bank of International Settlements.

So when I first formed the algorithm and first saw the manipulative pattern it was as if I was the first person witnessing a crime scene. I know when the first day of intervention began, I know when the agents of the Federal Reserve first began their misdeeds.

More importantly GATA knows too---and they know much more that hasn't been revealed.

Black Blade

(08/21/2001; 20:56:01 MDT - Msg ID: 60053)

Bleak Prospects for Jobs Greet This Fall's Business Graduates

http://public.wsj.com/sn/y/SB998338295741410370.html
Snippit:

Business students, barely recovered from their protracted hunts for summer internships, face even bleaker prospects for permanent jobs as classes resume in the coming weeks. Many major corporations that wined and dined M.B.A. candidates last fall intend to curb their campus recruitment efforts this school year.

Making matters worse, business students finishing school next spring must compete with recent M.B.A. graduates who have yet to find work or became jobless following the dot-com downturn. In addition, many companies "wish that they had not made as many offers as they had made to the 2001 class," says Bruce G. Willison, dean of U.C.L.A.'s Anderson Graduate School of Management, noting that some companies had asked these new hires to defer their start dates.

Black Blade: They didn't even get the chance to get employment before being tossed upon the "Bone Pile." Just think of all the recent Computer IT graduates. These graduates had better brush up on saying: "Would you like fries with that sir?" This Recession is going to be a bruiser.

Black Blade

(08/21/2001; 21:02:19 MDT - Msg ID: 60054)

RE: BR549

"Give that man a cigar!" - You got it!

BTW, I only got in to catch the last half hour of "GOLD." From what I saw, it was pretty good. I thought the peice on the Brit "Concentration Camps" in SA was quite interesting.

uponroof

(08/21/2001; 21:06:28 MDT - Msg ID: 60055)

correction

POG up 12+ bucks from Aug 7 to Aug 17. Dutch sold 4 tns gold from Aug 13-17. (The American Advisor)

GOLD!
I did not think the GOLD! documentary was slanted. You need to look at it from a precious metals uneducated view, as most of America is. Nothing devious or bias, so far*, with which to brainwash the already dead masses. I suspect we will get a good dose of bias in the last segment (Friday) which is called 'Cold Hard Cash'.

sector-If they ever do a documentary on GOLD MANIPULATION! I want you doing the expert commentary.

good job!

Max Rabbitz

(08/21/2001; 21:26:53 MDT - Msg ID: 60056)

History Channel Gold Program Review

I was disappointed. I had hoped they would start at the beginning, perhaps Egypt, or the first use of gold coins and their use in trade. What about the Byzantine empire's economic stability? To start with the rape of the America's by some misguided zealots was pandering to Hollywood tastes. I thought it boring. I vote for bias although it may be more simple minded than deliberate.

The History Channel has presented some good material and sometimes controversial (Kennedy Assassinations, U.S.S. Liberty attack). I find C-span's weekend non-fiction book reviews by the authors to be often an excellent source of history. Maybe they'll have G. Edward Griffin on after the veil gets ripped from the financial temples.

John Doe

(08/21/2001; 21:30:57 MDT - Msg ID: 60057)

@BR549

"@ALL---
For those that watched The History Channel about GOLD, any opinions of whether this first segment was biased against goldbugs?"

The message I gleaned was that "mankind" has been stupid, evil, and destructive in its historical pursuit of gold. On the surface, this may well be true, but the real, driving issue isn't gold per se, but those noble human attributes known as theft, dominance, and attaining/retaining the means of control, i.e., the money function, which at that time in history just happened to be gold. I surmise no mention of the modern monetary system will be forthcoming, or if it is, its panoply of defaults adn shortincomings will be glossed over as "much better than gold ever was."

I think that Peter Bernstein, the author of "The Power of Gold: The History of an Obsession" was one of the commentators, as well as someone from the WGC. The Bernstein book had been discussed here before as pretty establishment-oriented. Between him and the guy from the WGC the tone and direction of this series has been pretty well set. You, I, and the general public will learn a few interesting historical facts, but none of the truth about gold's real, ongoing monetary function.

The Blanchard commercial was actually pretty good, but they were hawking numismatics, not bullion, which makes sense. The numismatic market can't really hurt the current bullion manipulations.

Other than that, I found starting a four-part, four hour history of gold in 1492 AD pretty lame. Maybe they'll back up and cover earlier periods later, but that will simply add to the confused and disjointed presentation they've already embarked upon. Any of a dozen regular posters here could write a better, more informative telescript for gold off the top of their head.

BR549

(08/21/2001; 21:36:10 MDT - Msg ID: 60058)

Gold Manipulation

uponroof (msg#: 60055)--
"sector-If they ever do a documentary on GOLD MANIPULATION! I want you doing the expert commentary."

sector (msg#: 59936)-
"About the "Whirlwind of Speculation"

sector I second your nomination by uponroof about doing the expert commentary on Gold Manipulation.

I would also co-nominate Randy's brilliant Friday post at site steward (msg#: 59845).

If you missed them, it is well worth the trip back.

Great Stuff!

Black Blade

(08/21/2001; 22:03:02 MDT - Msg ID: 60059)

The British Auschwitz

http://www.boer.co.za/boerwar/hellkamp.htm
Snippit:

According to a British journalist, WT Stead, the concentration camps were nothing more than a cruel torture machine. He writes: "Every one of these children who died as a result of the halving of their rations, thereby exerting pressure onto their family still on the battle-field, was purposefully murdered. The system of half rations stands exposed and stark and unshamefully as a cold-blooded deed of state policy employed with the purpose of ensuring the surrender of people whom we were not able to defeat on the battlefield."

Black Blade: More info on the Brit concentration camps during their theft of SA Gold. And after all this, only to sell it off in a series of auctions. "Interesting."

BR549

(08/21/2001; 22:30:32 MDT - Msg ID: 60060)

Golden History

OK, students! Gold History Class is again in session.

Upon reading our student's homework, the following is worth mentioning to the rest of the class:

Uponroof, "I did not think the GOLD! documentary was slanted. You need to look at it from a precious metals uneducated view, as most of America is. Nothing devious or bias, so far*, with which to brainwash the already dead masses. I suspect we will get a good dose of bias in the last segment (Friday) which is called 'Cold Hard Cash'. Pretty good I thought. Some very interesting facts on Pizzarro and General Custer and how gold was behind all the moves they made."

Grade---an "unbiased "A".

John Doe, "The message I gleaned was that "mankind" has been stupid, evil, and destructive in its historical pursuit of gold. On the surface, this may well be true, but the real, driving issue isn't gold per se, but those noble human attributes known as theft, dominance, and attaining/retaining the means of control."

True and thank you for your turning in your homework assignment on time. Please note tomorrow's episode pertains to your contention that the desire and lust for gold has fueled wars throughout history. Greed and power has been instrumental, much as it is now. The "modern monetary system will be forthcoming" in episode three.

Grade--Your commentary deserves an "A".

Max Rabbitz, "I was disappointed. I had hoped they would start at the beginning, perhaps Egypt, or the first use of gold coins and their use in trade. What about the Byzantine empire's economic stability?"
@Max�If you read your Homework assignment on what is coming---The first world coins were minted by the Sardis. Most early cultures traded precious metals. In 2500 B.C. the Egyptians produced metal rings for use as money. By 700 B.C., a group of seafaring people called the Lydians became the first in the Western world to make coins. The Lydians used coins to expand their vast trading empire. The Greeks and Romans continued the coining tradition and passed it on to later Western civilizations. Coins were appealing since they were durable, easy to carry and contained valuable metals.

Grade--An "A" for now.

Sierra Madre (msg#: 60048)
BR549....How was the History Channel program?
I hope you liked it. I missed it. Perhaps I'll catch tomorrow's segment.

Grade "A" but @ My new friend Sierra�No more cutting class unless you spend it with your loved one.

BR549-Typical History Channel presentation, and to the above, a big smile and thanks for the comments. The jury is still out on whether this series is worthwhile. Let's give it �til Friday.

Grade-Incomplete until Friday.

All students of gold----Please be patient and do your homework on the History of Money and you will find that regardless of the reasons, war, greed, politics, that gold has reigned supreme throughout History.

Class dismissed until tomorrow night!

Black Blade

(08/21/2001; 22:36:49 MDT - Msg ID: 60061)

U.S. oil rockets as gasoline demand sparkles

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010821/n21127230.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK, Aug 21 (Reuters) - U.S. oil prices roared higher Tuesday fuelled by declines in crude and refined product stocks as U.S. motorists burned through gasoline supplies at a frantic pace. ``What we're seeing here is incredible demand,'' said Phil Flynn of Alaron Research in New York. ``If this economy is measured in miles per gallon something good is happening.'' Assurances by major OPEC producers of compliance to new output quotas, which will cut a million barrels daily from the group's output from Sept. 1 also underpinned the market.

Black Blade: Rising energy costs in a deepening Recession means a "Perfect Storm" on the horizon. Cheap gold looks better all the time.

Black Blade

(08/21/2001; 22:53:54 MDT - Msg ID: 60062)

7000 Year-Old Thracian Gold

http://www.travellady.com/ARTICLES/article-mfaexhibits.html
Some Thracian gold artwork supposedly predates the Pharoahs of Egypt.

Snippit:

The ancient Thracians created the oldest gold objects fashioned by human hands. In the dim gallery, spotlights dramatically illuminate spectacular gold and silver bowls, drinking vessels, jewelry, armor, tools and horse ornaments, some dating back as far as 7000 years. More than 200 rare objects in the exhibition that were unearthed by farmers and others digging in the land once known as Thrace, that vast expanse of mountains and valleys on the Balkan peninsula north of Greece.

Old Yeller

(08/22/2001; 00:23:53 MDT - Msg ID: 60063)

The Stranger

Lives up to his name in a mysterious re-appearance at a critical (we hope) juncture.Good to see you back.I always find your posts very enlightening.View Yesterday's Discussion.

Netking

(08/22/2001; 03:42:52 MDT - Msg ID: 60064)

Argentina links to Euro . . .

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1399000/1399973.stmSnippit:
The Argentine Senate has approved a new law that will fix its currency to the euro as well as to the dollar. After a six hour debate, the lawmakers approved the bill - known as the Convertibility II - into law, effectively establishing a new exchange rate for the entire economy.

The idea is sponsored by Economy Minister Domingo Cavallo, as he struggles to shield his economy from exposure to the US and stabilise the peso.

One peso is now fixed at one dollar and will become fixed to one euro, as soon as the euro rises to parity with the dollar.

When the euro then rises or falls against the dollar, the peso will be set at the mid value between the two currencies . . . . The new euro peg approved on Thursday is likely to take many months to come into effect. The euro is now worth about 85 cents of a dollar . . . "
------------------------------------------------------------
Sorry, but wrong old chaps, wrong! . . . the BBC need to write that last sentance above again they wrote for the 21st August.

As mentioned in my post earlier yesterday (#60023)the Euro had powered up to 91.76 against the USD & we predicted a breach of 92. Now at 92.31 with futures trading over 96 against the USD . . . parity against the greenback may be here for the Argentines much sooner than what some expect . . . what about before Christmas!http://www.forexdirectory.net/chartsfx.html
- Netking

Netking

(08/22/2001; 04:37:50 MDT - Msg ID: 60065)

Harmony closes another 230,000 ounces of hedge book . . .

http://www.miningweekly.co.za/?show=8954Snippit:
The closure of 230 000 oz of hedging positions by South African gold producer Harmony once again emphasised the company's commitment to remaining as unhedged as possible so that it can take immediate advantage of any rise in the bullion price.

Harmony CE Bernard Swanepoel, whose anti-hedging views are well known, initially announced the move at the company's presentation of its quarterly results for end June on August 1.

The hedges were acquired along with the acquisitions of South African gold miner Randfontein and Australian producer New Hampton. . . . .the close-out gels with Harmony's stated strategy of being unhedged and that the company has already released itself from some 400 000 hedging ounces.

The move also indicates the company's optimism around the gold price with Robertson arguing that Harmony remains "the eternal gold bull".

Explaining the timing Swanepoel said, "The low gold price over the past few months resulted in this restructuring being achieved at no cost to the company and its shareholders".

"We believe our shareholders want the exposure of an increase in the gold price," . . . .

Gold Trail Update

(08/22/2001; 05:18:55 MDT - Msg ID: 60066)

The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated

The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.

Black Blade

(08/22/2001; 05:43:22 MDT - Msg ID: 60067)

Gold rises as dollar hits five-month low vs euro

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010822/l22287681.html
Snippit:

LONDON, Aug 22 (Reuters) - Gold bullion moved higher in Europe on Wednesday morning, as the U.S dollar fell to five-month lows against the euro , traders and analysts said.

Black Blade: Strong Dollar Policy?

Black Blade

(08/22/2001; 05:56:07 MDT - Msg ID: 60068)

Hutchinson cuts up to 600 employees

http://twincities.bcentral.com/twincities/stories/2001/08/20/daily15.html
Snippit:

Hutchinson Technology Inc., Hutchinson, will eliminate up to 600 jobs at its plants in Hutchinson, Plymouth, Eau Claire, Wisc. and Sioux Falls, S.D. The layoffs will be completed by the end of September.

Black Blade: The Deepening Recession adds more "Bones" to the "Bone Pile." The economy slowly slides into oblivion.

BTW, AOL Time Warner made it official that 1200 more piles of "Bones" would be added to the "Bone Pile/" That is in addition to 500 piles of "Bones" from their joint venture with Sun Microsystems. Getting very ugly.

Cavan Man

(08/22/2001; 06:42:59 MDT - Msg ID: 60069)

Black Blade

Hello BB. There's no gold to be found in Ireland but pursuant to your comment on the camps in South Africa and subsequent losss of life well; the Irish Famine was no walk in the park to be sure. Aside from HM's gold auctions, history is replete with examples of British stupidity, barbarity and indifference to human life and dignity.

Tommy P

(08/22/2001; 06:50:35 MDT - Msg ID: 60070)

How could they be so off the target?????

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20World%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topworld&refer=topworld&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AO4OoqxLzV2hpdGUgCan any one guess why? response welcomed.

Rockgrabber

(08/22/2001; 08:01:44 MDT - Msg ID: 60071)

EU may hit US with 4 billion in penalties

http://washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A37578-2001Aug20.html They can be a thorn in our side. Today just shows we can get knocked off A hill. We I am sure we did give unfair trade advatages through special tariff laws for our big dudes, like Microsoft. Another round in the CLIP!! Their clip is almost full now it would seem, how many shots will they need to take us down??

Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD

(08/22/2001; 08:31:56 MDT - Msg ID: 60072)

Hard assets... Easy access!

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

"Treasure chests throughout history
have been filled with gold, and not by idle choice."

-- R. Strauss

Mountain Top

(08/22/2001; 08:46:30 MDT - Msg ID: 60073)

Off the mark

Tommy P
Thats easy, they lied. New administration, new lie.

USAGOLD

(08/22/2001; 08:49:35 MDT - Msg ID: 60074)

Today's Commentary & Review Includes an Interesting and Revealing Graph on Seasonal Gold Demand

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.htmlFirst timers must register to gain access to this private client report. Our regular clientele can go directly to the Commentary & Review page. Comments, point of view welcome.

8/22/01

In Brief: Gold jumped sharply higher in Europe overnight as traders reacted to the latest rate cut and a weaker dollar. The euro moved to five month highs against the dollar on good results from the latest survey of business confidence in Germany. UBSWarburg reports short covering and fresh buying as driving the market overnight. The Australian Financial Review is buoyant on gold's prospects emphasizing gold's strong showings in the past when the dollar has gone into a period of decline:

"The real beneficiary of the weaker US dollar was the gold market. On Friday it snapped up through $US280 an oz for the first time in three months, before closing around $US279.50 an oz. Gold and the US dollar have a close relationship. As the US dollar falls, gold rallies. As gold is traded in US dollars this inverse relationship should exist, if all else is excluded. But other factors, like central bank gold sales, interest rates and gold lease rates, do affect the gold price. Back in 1985 the US dollar triggered gold into a wild bull market. A number of traders are now hoping that 1985 will repeat itself. Then the US dollar collapsed and gold rose from $US300 an oz to $US500 an oz."

We have seen a dramatic increase in the number of inquiries at Centennial Precious Metals/USAGOLD over the past several days. Most of the callers note that they are ready to move funds out of the stock market and into gold. Stocks continue to suffer from poor earnings results, the faltering dollar and weakened economic prospects in the United States -- not to speak of the fact that the air is being let out of the greatest equities bubble in history. A growing coterie of analysts -- especially those detached from the Wall Street equity firms and banks -- are beginning to call this a primary bear market. Yesterday's one quarter point cut failed to even slow-down the building negative sentiment in the stock market. Bear markets on average in the past have lasted from 12 to 15 years. Gold during equities bear markets has been a contra cyclical alternative where the investor could safely park funds for the interim -- a salve for the badly wounded portfolio. That understanding has carried over to this bear market. Many mention that their interest is fueled by gold being so undervalued.

That's it for today. See you back here in a few days. MK
- - - - - - - -

'Tis the Season

I have written intermittently about the summer gold doldrums and the chart below generously provided by Spectrum Commodities (please see link below) clearly shows the seasonality of gold demand. September usually marks the New Year for gold and this year promises to be a good one. . . . . . . .
(MORE including interesting chart. . . . Go to Commentary & Review. REGISTRATION required. )

Cavan Man

(08/22/2001; 09:09:50 MDT - Msg ID: 60075)

Another IMF Success Story

Argentina is the latest IMF Lotto winner.

escapethematrix

(08/22/2001; 09:20:03 MDT - Msg ID: 60076)

Treasury Department Internet site responds to GATA's clamor

http://www.treas.gov/opc/opc0007.html#gold%20marketsSnippet:

Tuesday, August 21, 2001 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Here's a hoot from a GATA supporter: * * * I don't know if you are aware of the publicity that GATA and Reg Howe have received on the U.S. Treasury Department web site. The following is a URL that will take you to their web page. They deny any involvement in manipulation of the gold market. Obviously, someone is worried.

This site is good for a chuckle....The noose is tightening....They must be feelin' the heat.

Gold Trail Update

(08/22/2001; 09:25:52 MDT - Msg ID: 60077)

The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated

The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.

Tommy P

(08/22/2001; 09:59:53 MDT - Msg ID: 60078)

Looks good on corporations!!

http://www.cfo.com/article/1,4616,0|83|AD|4655,00.htmlI hope they go after the CEO's.!

Gandalf the White

(08/22/2001; 10:21:44 MDT - Msg ID: 60079)

Please tell me what happened at 4 a.m. on this chart !!!!!

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/chart.cgi?s=NYBOT_DXY0&t=f&w=1&a=1&v=s<;-)

Cage Rattler

(08/22/2001; 10:50:05 MDT - Msg ID: 60080)

Gandalf...German Ifo was released at 8:00 GMT

It was above expectations...though euro levels currently right back to where they were then...

Editor, The Gilded Opinion

(08/22/2001; 11:14:43 MDT - Msg ID: 60081)

ANNOUNCING - Marc Faber at The Gilded Opinion

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Faber.htmlWorld-renowned investment contrarian and remarkably prescient prognosticator Dr. Marc Faber makes his first ever appearance at The Gilded Opinion today. For a thorough examination of today's investment climate, including his latest thoughts about gold, please visit the link above and read "When Something Doesn't Add Up" by Dr. Marc Faber.

Gandalf the White

(08/22/2001; 11:28:26 MDT - Msg ID: 60082)

Thanks, Cage Rattler !!

It is a real pleasure at the USAGOLD Forum to be able to ask a straight question and get a straight answer to any question. Someone that either posts or LURKS here, has the answer to any question. All one must do is ask, and perhaps the answer will appear. MAGIC !!
---
<;-)

The Hoople

(08/22/2001; 12:03:49 MDT - Msg ID: 60083)

Godman Sachs rubs rubes wrong way

In today's WSJ (A-1, 1st column) is another story of the mis-deeds of Goldman Sachs. Montana Power Co. , in a stunning wrong way bet, was advised by Goldman Sachs to sell ALL of its power generation capacity and simultaneously invest ALL of it in fiber-optic networks. As they are now discovering they sold out just prior to the spectacular runup in power prices, and got in fiber-optics just in time for the stunning collapse. To make matters worse they have long term contracts locked in on power at low prices and are buying high priced power on the open market from PPL Corp. , the company that BOUGHT them. The stock, which once traded at $65 now trades for $7.90 (Sound familiar?) The total loss is over 3 billion dollars , a staggering amount for a relatively small utility. Goldman Sachs made over 100 visits to tiny Butte, Montana advising utility executives. Goldman will get 2.5% , or about $14.2 million for its "advice". A priceless quote is from Bob Gannon, CEO of Montana Power, who said, " There are a lot of suggestions in watering holes around this state that Goldman was flying around the west looking for a bunch of guys to dupe and that we were a bunch of rubes from Montana who got taken in. That's the stupidest thing I have ever heard". Wrong, Bob. The stupidest thing you ever heard was when Goldman opened their mouth. If anybody doubted Goldman's foray into Gold manipulation this should be yet another lesson. Whether it is gold mines or utilities, the lesson is the same. People who push paper assets will go to great lengths to convince you it is worth more than a real asset or commodity. Add utility workers and investors to the growing list of people being ruined by this Wall Street greed.

R Powell

(08/22/2001; 12:07:41 MDT - Msg ID: 60084)

CNBC gold report

A Jean Marie Eveillard of the 1ST Eagle Gold Fund was interviewed. He recommends only 2-3% of assets in bullion or coins as an insurance against losses elsewhere. He said there is "nothing to be liked among currencies today."
When questioned about mining stocks he replied that owning them is a leveraged investment and that one should be careful to buy only unhedged or only slightly hedged companies. He also explained that hedged companies have sold not only their current stores but also the yellow still in the ground.
When asked his opinion of the POG 6-12 months out, he smiled and said he hadn't a clue. Nothing of GATA or central bank selling or any outside market forces. Maybe someone's curiosity was aroused somewhere out there in investmentland.
My thoughts? Two-three percent might be multiplied by ten or so. Enough to include some of the poor man's gold too.
Rich

site steward

(08/22/2001; 12:15:05 MDT - Msg ID: 60085)

No action yesterday in anticipation of rate cut; playing catch-up today

With the target rate for overnight borrowing 25 basis points lower today, the Fed has been busy making money (that is to say, "printing" it, not earning it) for its banking constituents.

Today the Fed added $10.903 billion to banking reserves through the open market operations of the NY trading desk.

Of that amount, it added $653 millioin in permanent reserves through the outright purchase of U.S. Treasuries. Further, $5.75 billion were temporarily added using overnight repos, while another $4.5 billion were provided with 15-day RPs.

Have you made your safe exit from the arena yet?

R.

site steward

(08/22/2001; 12:31:04 MDT - Msg ID: 60086)

Due diligence: Where are you putting your money?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010822/n22179294.htmlIs it being traded in and out of peril by someone as competent in his job as you are in yours where you earned it to begin with?

The URL above gives some good insight about hedge funds.

EXCERPT:
---"There are a plenty of garages with computers in them out there," said Terrence Jones, managing director at Arden Asset Management, describing what some hedge funds grandly call offices. Arden, he said, does not invest with new managers.---

With that in your head as you lie in bed each night, I wish you, "Sweet dreams..."

R.

Sierra Madre

(08/22/2001; 14:09:11 MDT - Msg ID: 60087)

Hoople: Ever looked at the Bonds and Shares of long ago?

You said:

"People who push paper assets will go to
great lengths to convince you it is worth more than a real asset or commodity."

That's why Bond and Share certificates up to about WWI were so beautifully engraved and printed, with lots of gold decoration. The looks had to be very good, to convince investors to part with their gold. I especially like the "Chinese Imperial Loan of 1912". Spectacular.

By the way, old Bond and Share certificates are very decorative, when suitably framed.

Sierra

BR549

(08/22/2001; 14:44:36 MDT - Msg ID: 60088)

PBall

White Hills (msg#: 60041)

Is it too late to get in?

They say the odds of winning are worse than getting hit by lightning twice on a sunny day but I like my chances.

Thanks,

BR

uponroof

(08/22/2001; 14:56:06 MDT - Msg ID: 60089)

BR666

Yo BR,

Don't you know gambling is straight from the devil?

The odds are 80 mil to one......a lot better than the creeps at the Treasury ever giving up capping POG voluntarily.

Suggest you play all combos of 549....if you win I want 10%.

Sierra Madre

(08/22/2001; 15:03:19 MDT - Msg ID: 60090)

The Right Way to use Silver in Coinage

http://www.plata.com.mx/plata/english.htmA discussion about how to use silver in coinage, in Mexico, in the light of certain proposals made recently.

Sierra

site steward

(08/22/2001; 15:06:56 MDT - Msg ID: 60091)

Almost surreal...

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Bond%20Market%20World&tp=ad_uknews&T=news_storypage99.ht&ad=world_bonds&s=AO4QLqhXAVS5TLiBJOn the one hand, we have this news from Bloomberg announcing an increase to $14 billion for the Treasury's new borrowing to occur next week:

----New York, Aug. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Treasury increased its monthly two-year note sale slated for next week by $2 billion to $14 billion, as a shrinking budget surplus drives up borrowing needs. It will be the biggest monthly sale of the notes since the same quantity was sold in January 2000.----

Bloomberg also reports that new short-term (four-week) Treasury bills which the government started offering weekly at the end of July had been increased in offer from $10 to $13 and may rise to $16 billion. Bloomberg says these bills hav raised "$44 billion of new money for the government" thus far. Interestingly, Blooberg also reports, "At the same time, the weekly three- and six-month Treasury bill sales haven't dropped off, something analysts expected. The short-term debt sales have amounted to $29 billion each week since July 23."

That's a lot of borrowing for us here in Surplus Land.

Meanwhile, we also have this report from Reuters today explaining how the Treasury is buying back debt.

----WASHINGTON, Aug 22 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department announced on Wednesday that it will buy back up to $1.75 billion of government securities this week, continuing a program of using budget surpluses to cut its debt. The 16th this year in a series that Treasury says aims to take $28 billion of existing debt off the market by Sept. 30. [...] The operation date for the transaction will be Aug. 23 and the settlement date, when investors who turn in their bonds receive the cash for them, is Monday, Aug. 27.----

Such a tiny little thing. Where are you investing your confidence?

R.

BR549

(08/22/2001; 15:07:45 MDT - Msg ID: 60092)

Cash in without having to cash out

Fox News Channel today giving advice on how to invest in gold without having to cash out. John Hathaway, of Tocqueville Gold Fund said his fund has had an 11% rise YTD. His favorite mining stocks are: Homestake, Newmont, and Placer Dome. Gold is no longer the Rodney Dangerfield of investments. Potential for big returns is there.

Cavuto would have been fired had he done this report on GE Jack's PR Machine. Said that AG is "crazy" and "evil". At least Cavuto is honest.

uponroof-
Gambling evil? I run down to Biloxi, MS and visit the FRN's that I have in temporary storage in one of the Casinos. Lately, I have adding to the stored balance rather than withdrawing.

Unfortunately, I don't have access to Power Ball living in the back woods standing guard with my Rottweiler over my storage. So feel free to use my 549 and we'll split the take 50/50. Good luck!

CoBra(too)

(08/22/2001; 15:24:01 MDT - Msg ID: 60093)

@ BB - Caspian Sea Oil Fields?

Seems to me, BB, that the Caspian Sea hosts one of the last mega oil fields to be developed globally.

Unfortunately the borders of 5 neighboring states are not really defined and could easily lead to a messy war, which may not be contained in the immediate area, but could spread to the already explosive ME.

As of now Russia, Kasachstan and Azerbeidschan seem to favor a borderline in accordance to their coast line, which would guarantee them 19, 29 and 21% of the prize; While Iran and Turkmenistan would only hold 14 and 17% respectively. The latter two, of course, favor a sectorial
division guaranteeing each country an equal 20% of the bounty.

The potential of these Caspian Sea Oil Fields are in the realm of the Saudi oil riches. International interests are already taking sides, according to their politics and so are oil multi-nationals, as cannon boats are already outnumbering tankers and rigs in the region. An explosive mix.

Sir BB, maybe you could shed more light on this situation from a geological and economical point of view, as I may be able to analyse the political brew.
Thank you - cb2

John Doe

(08/22/2001; 15:25:18 MDT - Msg ID: 60094)

THE PARABLE OF THE PIGS

by Steve Washam and based on a telling by George Gordon
The Idaho Observer

Some years ago, about 1900, an old trapper from North Dakota hitched up some horses to his Studebaker wagon, packed a few possessions -- especially his traps -- and drove south.

Several weeks later he stopped in a small town just north of the Okefenokee Swamp in Georgia. It was a Saturday morning -- a lazy day -- when he walked into the general store. Sitting around the pot-bellied stove were seven or eight of the town's local citizens.

The traveler spoke, "Gentlemen, could you direct me to the Okefenokee Swamp?" Some of the oldtimers looked at him like he was crazy. "You must be a stranger in these parts," they said. "I am. I'm from North Dakota," said the stranger.

"In the Okefenokee Swamp are thousands of wild hogs," one old man explained. "A man who goes into the swamp by himself asks to die!" He lifted up his leg. "I lost half my leg here, to the pigs of the swamp." Another old fellow said, "Look at the cuts on me; look at my arm bit off!"

"Those pigs have been free since the Revolution, eating snakes and rooting out roots and fending for themselves for over a hundred years. They're wild and they're dangerous. You can't trap them. No man dare go into the swamp by himself." Every man nodded his head in agreement.

The old trapper said, "Thank you so much for the warning. Now could you direct me to the swamp?" They said, "Well, yeah, it's due south -- straight down the road." But they begged the stranger not to go, because they knew he'd meet a terrible fate.

He said, "Sell me ten sacks of corn, and help me load them into the wagon." They did and then the old trapper bid them farewell and drove on down the road. The townsfolk thought they'd never see him again.

Two weeks later the man came back. He pulled up to the general store, got down off the wagon, walked in and bought ten more sacks of corn. After loading it up he went back down the road toward the swamp.

Two weeks later he returned and, again, bought ten sacks of corn. This went on for a month. And then two months, and three. Every week or two the old trapper would come into town on a Saturday morning, load up ten sacks of corn and drive off south into the swamp.

The stranger soon became a legend in the little village and the subject of much speculation. People wondered what kind of devil had possessed this man, that he could go into the Okefenokee by himself and not be consumed by the wild and free hogs.

One morning the man came into town as usual. Everyone thought he wanted more corn. He got off the wagon and went into the store where the usual group of men were gathered around the stove. He took off his gloves and said, "Gentlemen, I need to hire about ten or fifteen wagons. I need twenty or thirty men. I have six thousand hogs out in the swamp, penned up, and they're all hungry. I've got to get them to market right away."

"You've WHAT in the swamp?" asked the storekeeper, incredulously.

"I have six thousand hogs penned up. They haven't eaten for two or three days, and they'll starve if I don't get back there to feed and take care of them."

One of the oldtimers said, "You mean you've captured the wild hogs of the Okefenokee?" "That's right" he answered. "How did you do that? What did you do?" the men urged, breathlessly.

One of them exclaimed, "But I lost my arm!" Another cried, "I lost my brother!" "I lost my leg to those wild boars!" chimed a third.

The trapper said, "Well, the first week I went in there they were wild all right. They hid in the undergrowth and wouldn't come out. I dared not get off the wagon. So I spread corn along behind the wagon. Every day I'd spread a sack of corn.

"The old pigs would have nothing to do with it. But the younger pigs decided that it was easier to eat free corn than it was to root out roots and catch snakes. So the very young began to eat the corn first.

"I did this every day. Pretty soon, even the old pigs decided that it was easier to eat free corn, after all, they were all free; they were not penned up. They could run off in any direction they wanted at any time.

"The next thing was to get them used to eating in the same place all the time. So, I selected a clearing, and I started putting the corn in the clearing. At first they wouldn't come to the clearing. It was too far. It was too open. It was a nuisance to them. But the very young decided that it was easier to take the corn in the clearing than it was to root out roots and catch their own snakes. And not long thereafter, the older pigs also decided that it was easier to come to the clearing every day.

"And so the pigs learned to come to the clearing every day to get their free corn. They could still subsidize their diet with roots and snakes and whatever else they wanted. After all, they were all free. They could run in any direction at any time. There were no bounds upon them.

"The next step was to get them used to fence posts. So I put fence posts all the way around the clearing. I put them in the underbrush so that they wouldn't get suspicious or upset, after all, they were just sticks sticking up out of the ground, like the trees and the brush. The corn was there every day. It was easy to walk in between the posts, get the corn, and walk back out.

"This went on for a week or two. Shortly they became very used to walking into the clearing, getting the free corn, and walking back out through the fence posts.

"The next step was to put one rail down at the bottom. I also left a few openings, so that the older, fatter pigs could walk through the openings and the younger pigs could easily jump over just one rail, after all, it was no real threat to their freedom or independence -- they could always jump over the rail and flee in any direction at any time.

"Now I decided that I wouldn't feed them every day. I began to feed them every other day. On the days I didn't feed them, the pigs still gathered in the clearing. They squealed, and they grunted, and they begged and pleaded with me to feed them -- but I only fed them every other day. Then I put a second rail around the posts.

"Now the pigs became more and more desperate for food. Because now they were no longer used to going out and digging their own roots and finding their own food, they now needed me. They needed my corn every other day."

"So I trained them that I would feed them every day if they came in through a gate and I put up a third rail around the fence. But it was still no great threat to their freedom, because there were several gates and they could run in and out at will. Finally I put up the fourth rail. Then I closed all the gates but one, and I fed them very, very well."

"Yesterday I closed the last gate and today I need you to help me take these pigs to market."

CoBra(too)

(08/22/2001; 15:42:50 MDT - Msg ID: 60095)

Re- Caspian Oil -

What a shame finding oil in the sea hosting the best CAVIAR fish in the world. The sturgeon, already becoming scarce will sure become extinct in the exploitation of black gold... and grey gold (Iranian Caviar) will cost more than gold - ounce for ounce! cb2

auspec

(08/22/2001; 17:50:37 MDT - Msg ID: 60096)

sector sez

"More importantly GATA knows too---and they know much more that hasn't been revealed."

This little snippet is out of sector's comments on post #60052. I have seen this mentioned repeatedly over the last few years from GATA........their hand is yet to be fully played. I know of no reason whatsoever to doubt they have a number of aces in the hole. Am more than ready to pick up a stack of chips, dammit! Tis time!
auspec

Black Blade

(08/22/2001; 17:56:09 MDT - Msg ID: 60097)

RE: CB2 - Caspian Oil

Unfortunately I don't have the data handy right now, however, if I am able to find it in the "Paper Pile" I will get out more details. The Caspian Oil Fields are not playing out to all the hype. Simply put, recent published drilling results thus far have been somewhat disappointing.

There was hope that this region would develop into a series of "Super-Giants." However, there are several drawbacks: 1) The majority of this oil is of low quality (sour crude) heavy crude which is expensive to extract and refine; 2) drilling results have been less than spectacular prompting Chevron to drop several prospects; 3) the Russians and the former Soviet Republics are not very efficient at exploiting these natural resources relying on antiquated technology, incompetent bureaucracy, cronyism, and dwindling foreign investment (in short they are inept fools); and 4) The political boundaries are a major obstacle as the proposed Caspian Oil Pipeline may never get built because of territorial disputes (i.e. Iranian and Turkish proposal vs. Azerbaijan-Armenian proposal, not to mention the territorial disputes from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan). This is not to say that this region will be a major contributor of future oil supply - what it does mean is that it won't provide massive supplies of "Cheap Oil." Higher oil prices will be needed to draw out more oil from this region.

Foreign investors have been badly burned by criminal activity (in and out of government) in this region and most reputable companies won't do business there. Even the natural gas supply is in question as when prices were higher and supply was tight, the Russians for example turned off the NG supply to their own people in the middle of winter in order to generate cash from European sales. Even so, there were numerous disruptions due to several NG pipeline explosions.

I will try to locate more detailed material when I get a chance. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(08/22/2001; 18:01:48 MDT - Msg ID: 60098)

Forbes Body Count

http://www.forbes.com/2001/01/30/layoffs.html
The "Bone Pile" grows somemore, soon to exceed 600,000.

Black Blade

(08/22/2001; 18:10:35 MDT - Msg ID: 60099)

Tellabs to Cut 12 Percent of Jobs

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010822/business_telecoms_tellabs_dc_5.html
Snippit:

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Telecommunications equipment maker Tellabs Inc. said on Wednesday it will cut about 12 percent of its work force, close two facilities and take a third-quarter charge as it moves to slash expenses amid reduced customer spending. The Lisle, Illinois-based company said it would cut 1,000 of its 8,400 jobs and close a manufacturing plant in Drogheda, Ireland and an office in Chelmsford, Massachusetts. The plant work will be consolidated at factories in Shannon, Ireland, and Espoo, Finland.

Black Blade: Dem Bones - Dem Bones - Dem Dry Bones�

Mr Gresham

(08/22/2001; 18:14:31 MDT - Msg ID: 60100)

John Doe: Pigs Parable

That was worth checking in for today, all on its own. As your contributions very often are...

Black Blade

(08/22/2001; 18:19:54 MDT - Msg ID: 60101)

Number of Laid Off U.S. Workers Jumps - One Big Pile of "Bones"

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010822/ts/economy_layoffs_dc_1.html
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of U.S. workers laid off from their jobs jumped nearly 44 percent in the second quarter of 2001 compared with the same period last year, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. Nearly 372,000 workers lost their jobs in mass layoff actions in April, May and June this year, up nearly 31,000 from the previous quarter and up more than 113,000 from the second quarter of 2000, the government said in its quarterly report.

The number of laid off workers was the largest for the second quarter since 1998, when strikes at two General Motors parts plants prompted the major auto maker to shut down 27 of its 29 North American assembly plants, at one point idling more than 200,000 workers. For the first half of 2001, the number of laid off workers totaled more than 712,000, up nearly 40 percent from the first half of 2000, the government said.

Black Blade: Dismal Recessionary economy leads to growing number of layoffs leads to lost consumer confidence leads to lower consumer demand leads to more layoffs leads to �. In a word - "GRIM"

Time to load up and get in to the "Golden Lifeboats" as the "Perfect Storm" approaches.

Black Blade

(08/22/2001; 18:25:13 MDT - Msg ID: 60102)

Fujitsu Moves Ahead With Cutbacks - Tech "Bones"

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/6000/20010822/lo/890088_1.html
Snippit:

Fujitsu will lay off 250 Oregon jobs, despite news that Advanced Micro Devices will purchase part of its plant. AMD, a major Intel rival in the semiconductor industry, announced that it is buying half of the Gresham plant. The Fujitsu chip plant currently employs nearly 900 workers.

Black Blade: High Tech "Bones" added upon the "Bone Pile." This deepening Recession will ensure that we will see the carnage get much much much worse.

Black Blade

(08/22/2001; 18:32:02 MDT - Msg ID: 60103)

U.S. stocks slide to April lows after Fed rate cut

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010821/n21110787_2.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK, Aug 21 (Reuters) - Stocks tumbled to lows unseen since early April on Tuesday after the U.S Federal Reserve chopped interest rates for a seventh time this year, but gave Wall Street little hope the sluggish economy is rebounding. ``The Fed's comments suggest the economy is crummy,'' said Cummins Catherwood, who oversees $750 million for money management firm Rutherford Brown & Catherwood. ``The consensus used to be that the cuts kicked in after six months and here we are in month eight and they're not working.''

In the past, central bank easing was nearly guaranteed to give the market a jolt because investors anticipated lower rates would boost corporate profits. But the latest cuts are leaving investors cold as this year's earnings are forecast to show the worst decline in a decade. ``Everybody wants instant gratification for things to stabilize, but there's no reason in the world why it should occur this way,'' said Donna Van Vlack, head of trading of Brandywine Asset Management. ``You still have companies having big problems and you've got a lot of layoff announcements that has to be worked through. It's going to take time and patience.''

Black Blade: DITTO! This is going to be one hell of a Recession. A few sleepers are beginning to wake up to the fact that we are in a deepening Recession.

auspec

(08/22/2001; 18:47:54 MDT - Msg ID: 60104)

Midas: US Treasury Caught in Blatant Lie

Note that the Federal Reserve's December 31, 1999 balance sheet shows a Gold Stock of only $11,048 million (see page no. 334), which is $41 million LESS THAN the $11,089 million reported as the total US Reserve Assets. Again, at the $42.22 per ounce price at which the asset is booked, approximately 1 million ounces of Gold is involved.

The important point is that there is Gold in the US Reserve Assets report (for which its footnote says includes the ESF) that is not on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. So there is only one possible answer to this discrepancy. This 1 million ounces of Gold must be a Gold transaction that was undertaken by the ESF. There is no other plausible alternative.

As already noted, there are letters coming to GATA and others from the Treasury Department saying that there is no intervention in the Gold market by the ESF. So is the Treasury Department lying? Yes, the letters from Treasury are not truthful because this approximately 1 million ounce year-end 1999 entry in the US Reserve Assets must be an ESF intervention in the Gold market. There is no other explanation. END
Comment: What a shock! Say it aint so, Larry.

Solomon Weaver

(08/22/2001; 18:51:22 MDT - Msg ID: 60105)

(No Subject)

http://www.plata.com.mx/plata/comHSP26a.htmhttp://www.plata.com.mx/plata/comHSP26a.htm

Sierra.....just read the post on silver coin for Mexico.....Imagine the impact if somehow the common family there were to try and save 1 coin per month....a little bit like Americans jumped on savings bonds.

This example is exactly why I consider silver to be the poor man's gold.

-----

By the way...FWIW....I watched the rebroadcast of the History Channel Gold series starting at 11:00 last night and at the 50 minute commercial break there was a 30 second ad from Blanchard!!! Did anyone see that in their area???

POS
Poor old Solomon

White Hills

(08/22/2001; 18:55:41 MDT - Msg ID: 60106)

BR549

Here is your number, Ticket 1E, Numbers 02-08-36-37-44 powerball is 38, Jackpot now 200,000,000.00 80% of all number combo's have been sold, good chance winner tonight. Went by Rosy's in Arizona. At least 110 cars parked in the desert with a line to get in. Good luck to us all. White Hills

BR549

(08/22/2001; 18:59:09 MDT - Msg ID: 60107)

GOLD!

@ ALL--The History Channel NOW!

auspec�"Say it aint so, Larry."

Curley---It's so auspec. "Whoop! Whoop! Whoop! Nyuk! Nyuk! Nyuk!

BR549

(08/22/2001; 19:35:30 MDT - Msg ID: 60108)

Gold Prospecting

White Hills (msg#: 60106)-

Thanks 200,000,000 times. Kind�a like those ancient prospectors looking for millions via prospecting for gold back in the 19th Century on the gold channel, Huh?

Some of my families fondest memories when we lived in Atlanta was going to Dahlonega, GA and buying some plastic gold pans and sifting through the sand hunting for some nuggets.

Post the winning number when you get it.

I'm excited. Thanks again.

Netking

(08/22/2001; 19:54:11 MDT - Msg ID: 60109)

Excitement

For REAL excitement in the days ahead . . . buy physical Silver . . . a.k.a. "how to have your cake and eat it too!"

MarkeTalk

(08/22/2001; 20:32:45 MDT - Msg ID: 60110)

Counterfeit money to swamp European Union

http://www.bloomberg.co.ukThis article, the link to which appears in the left hand column of this website's Daily Quote page, is most enlightening. As if the change-over to the Euro won't be difficult enough, now add in the counterfeiters who plan on flooding the market next year. The truth of the matter is that there have been counterfeiters all along but they sit in the capitals of the various nations and have the force of law behind them. The article above refers to the illegal, garden-variety counterfeiters who will go to prison (if caught) for a very long time.

Now what does this have to do with gold? Everything! I watch cycles which recur in markets on a periodic basis. And I have been reading about a 19-year cycle in gold which began in July 1999. The time from July 1999 to April 2001 has been one of pullback and consolidation. Since the April lows at 255, gold has been moving higher, albeit grudingly. But now considering the above story, it now makes sense why the next up cycle for gold has already begun and will accelerate between Christmas and next May/June. Can you imagine the chaos in the financial markets with real and counterfeit bills floating around? Now you can see why people will resort to the one and only true money--GOLD.

Once again, I appeal to the reason and intelligence of my clients here at Centennial who read this site. If you have been thinking about adding to your positions, don't hesitate any longer. You have more than enough reasons (posted by me and other distinguished thinkers at this site) to motivate you. You have been sufficiently warned to take action.

GC

Waterboy

(08/22/2001; 20:45:45 MDT - Msg ID: 60111)

Cobra(too) - Caspian Sea Oil

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/caspgrph.htmlhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/caspian.html

So far, the Caspian Sea area has been a big disappointment. Originally touted to be in the same class as the middle east fields, in table I of the hotlink, it is stated that the proven reserves of whe entire Caspian area are only 18-34 billion barrels to contrast with the 600 or so barrels of proven reserves in the middle east fields. It is a large field, but more in the class of the north sea fields.

There are significant political problems, and difficult transportation problems, as can be seen on the maps included in the un-hot link. The oil is also of inferior quality.

Because of poor drill results and excessive hasseling with the locals, several majors have pulled out of this area altogether.

Many reputable geologists consider the eia projections to be very optimistic.

It would be lovely if oil from this area would bail us out, but it ain't gonna happen.

Waterboy

goldquest

(08/22/2001; 20:50:24 MDT - Msg ID: 60112)

White Hills

Thank you! I have already gained from the knowledge that there are folks like you that are willing to share their good fortune with others! Your road is already paved with gold and I can only wish you all of the best. goldquest

uponroof

(08/22/2001; 21:16:18 MDT - Msg ID: 60113)

GOLD!

http://www.goldandsilvermines.com/all.htmGood Evening all,

Well, I thought the 'GOLD!' segment tonight was again very good. I saw no evidence of negative gold spin, just a good history lesson on the part gold played in earlier societies.

We even got a look at todays high volume/low grade operations which process tons of rock for ounces of gold.

Again Blanchard ran an ad for numismatic coins, but the WGC was nowhere to be found.....not even an expert commentator tonight. Anglogold however was represented. Their expert commentator described the 'sea' of gold present under the South African countryside.

If we are looking for an impact or result of this documentary, I'm thinking so far very positive......

in fact...

if the rest of the folks watching this are like me they are going out tommorrow, buying a metal detector, and driving to the nearest known (or rumoured) areas of gold to try their luck!

btw-CLICK ON THE LINK ABOVE AND CHECK OUT THE GOLD MINES FOR SALE YOU CAN BUY RIGHT NOW! ONE FOR EVERY BUDGET! SOME OF THOSE MONTANNA DEALS LOOK MIGHTY TEMPTING!

...(just dreamin')......

Let's hope by the end of the series (Friday) they (the masses) are simply driving to their nearest gold dealer and buying GOLD coins. But watch out for Friday....that segment is called 'Cold Hard Cash'. If we're going to get a negative spin 'hit job'.....that'll be the segment.

BR549...I'm pullin for ya pardner...;-)

Black Blade

(08/22/2001; 21:51:29 MDT - Msg ID: 60114)

Nikkei Tanks

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
The Nikkei resumes it's plunge to sub 10,000. It is a race between the Nikkei and Hang Seng. Which will go sub 10,000 first?

BR549

(08/22/2001; 21:52:32 MDT - Msg ID: 60115)

"A sea of gold" Is there any better description of the discovery of gold better than that?

@ up-

I Agree!

So far so good with The History Channel gold series. The best (or worst) depending on how it is presented, is coming up (no pun intended).

Thanks for a great link. These goldandsilvermines.com mines are pretty high priced real estate. The Fed, of course, has nothing to do with these mines having to be sold because of their unscrupulous manipulations of the POG and silver.

When the Fed runs out of aces, these properties will become VERY valuable. Mining for PM's has to be amongst the hardest and most rewarding work in the world.

Kodak

(08/22/2001; 22:00:35 MDT - Msg ID: 60116)

no subject

test test test

Netking

(08/22/2001; 22:06:39 MDT - Msg ID: 60117)

Black Blade

IMVHO the Nikkei . . . it's my considered opinion that, "We aint seen nothing yet"!

Black Blade

(08/22/2001; 22:24:20 MDT - Msg ID: 60118)

The 'Non-Recession' Has America in Denial

http://www.msnbc.com/news/616100.asp?cp1=1
No one wants to mention the R word, despite ample evidence that the economy is getting weaker

Snippit:

Aug. 27 issue - Back in the late 1970s, Cornell University economist Alfred Kahn briefly oversaw the Carter administration's voluntary wage-price guidelines. Kahn was (and is) a jovial soul whose power and influence suffered from his stubborn candor and sense of humor. He once irked the White House by suggesting that rampaging inflation might lead to a recession or a "deep, deep depression"-an assessment that Carter's aides promptly disavowed. Kahn retreated and promised that, in the future, he would refer to a recession as a "banana." He later shifted to kumquat after a big banana company complained.

WE ARE, IT SEEMS, now in a comparable situation. No one wants to utter the R word, because it signifies a symbolic threshold that, if crossed, might worsen consumer, business and investor psychology. The silence is rationalized by the popular convention of defining a banana as two consecutive quarters of declining economic output, or gross domestic product (GDP). This hasn't happened yet, unless the GDP statistics are revised downward-which is possible. But most other business indicators suggest that the economy is already in a banana, or soon will be.

Black Blade: I said it or about a year now, and I will say it again - We are already in a banana - er - Recession! The article outlines it fairly well. Only a dunce could deny it. Knowing now statistics with dubious filters and avoidance of "anomalous data values" is abused in order to arrive at a desired outcome (self-fullfilling prophecies), it is quite obvious what is going on here. George Dubya does not want to take the fall, and Bubba Clinton has "split the scene." I would second MarkeTalk's admonition - get ya some! Gold and Silver insurance that is. This Recession will only get worse. There is absolutely no light at the end of the tunnel here. Layoffs are accelerating and earnings ratios are coming off recent highs faster than a high school girl's prom dress.

Netking - I agree! Call this Act I.

Black Blade

(08/22/2001; 23:03:59 MDT - Msg ID: 60119)

Papua: Police squad sent to guard Porgera gold mine due to influx of scavengers

http://globalarchive.ft.com/globalarchive/article.html?id=010822004203&query=gold
Snippit:

A police mobile squad from Mt Hagen has been sent to Porgera to remove scavengers who are risking their lives to look for gold at the mine's dump. Highlands Divisional Commander, Assistant Commissioner Tony Wagambie, yesterday said Porgera Joint Venture (PJV) had asked for police assistance to remove those people as it feared that its gigantic trucks might run into them. Mr Wagambie said the scavengers are believed to be local villagers trying to recover the gold dust that can be found stuck to the crushed rocks which are dumped by the mammoth trucks. Not only did they risk being knocked down or crushed by the PJV trucks, they also risked being crushed by the large boulders perched around the top of the dump site.

Black Blade: Risking life and limb for "Barbarous Relics." Hmmm�

Black Blade

(08/22/2001; 23:21:45 MDT - Msg ID: 60120)

AGA defends surprise natgas storage revision

http://199.97.97.163/IMDS%PMANAT0%read%/home/content/users/imds/feeds/writersdesk/2001/08/22/eng-powerm-000001/eng-powerm-000001_191520_25_1731252949685
Snippit:

WASHINGTON, Aug 22 (Reuters) - The American Gas Association (AGA) stood by a surprise revision it made on Wednesday to its weekly natural gas storage report despite criticism about the accuracy of recent data. The bearish revision drove September natural gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) to a 17-month spot low of $2.80 per million British thermal units, down 11 percent.

Black Blade: AGA blows it. They can't ever seem to get the NG injection numbers right. No wonder then that I don't pay subscription to their service. Of course the data is all voluntary info from a few producers and many producers are not participants so the data is always suspect. However being off the mark by about 94% is really bad. I mean even government workers usually aren't that bad. I admit that I was surprised by last weeks data because it has been relatively mild weather is at a slack period prior to the fall and winter cold season.

Old Yeller

(08/22/2001; 23:57:09 MDT - Msg ID: 60121)

Greenie's sheen is oxidizing

http://www.vny.com/cf/news/upidetail.cfm?QID=213702
Is there anything that's been missed here?The recriminations are building,maybe people will finally wake up to the most pressing problem in the world economy.

Central bank inspired meddling and subsequent yawning imbalances that are never addressed in a rational way.

BR549

(08/22/2001; 23:58:11 MDT - Msg ID: 60122)

Panning for GOLD in Dahlonega, GA began in the 1820's

I have learned some facts that I didn't know before on "GOLD" and reinforced some things that I did.

An example of what I didn't know (believe me, it outnumbers greatly the things that I do know) from last night's episode was that Portugal and Spain by mutual agreement divided the new world into East and West. They put a line East of The Americas which went through South America and that is why Brazil speaks Portuguese and the remainder of South America speaks Spanish.

What I learned tonight is the reason that the CA "Gold Rush" occurred in 1849 rather than when Gold was actually discovered in 1848. Slow communications was why Asia knew about our gold rush before the Eastern U.S. as news traveled faster from ships leaving the left coast for the orient and returning to the East Coast than directly East via overland. When the Eastern U.S. found about Gold almost a year later, the official U.S. gold rush began. I always thought that Sutter's discovery was in 1849. The fact that Sutter died a pauper is also an interesting fact.

I already knew that Dahlonega, GA was way ahead of CA in the first gold rush because I had an Aunt who lived near there. I was in the computer industry as a Regional Director and had a "Boeing 727" strapped to my butt for years. I had 29 direct reports covering 13 states for a Fortune 10 computer vendor. My family life was being sacrificed by me for the pursuit of the almighty FRN. How stupid I was.

When we did get a chance to do something as a family, we sometimes went to Dahlonega to eat at "The Smith House". Interstate most of the way to the mountains North of Atlanta, then two lane roads the rest of the way winding into the mountains. The little town of Dahlonega was at the end of the road. Most of the natives up there used to throw their "junk" out but due to the wanderings of the Atlantans who wanted to escape the hot summer heat and migrate to the mountains for a day or two, this "junk" became mountain antiques and the Atlantans hauled it down to the city by the trunk full.

I don't know how long this Smith House (some would call it a restaurant) has been there but I know that their accompanying "rooming house" will take FRN's, all credit cards, or weigh your pouch in exchange for an evening's lodging.

If you just want to eat, no reservations, and first come first serve for us ordinary citizens, politicians, shysters, and anybody else who "allegedly was important in Atlanta". You sit on the front porch in one of the dozens of "Brumby Style" rocking chairs, rock, enjoy the mountain air, and the conversation of those around you until it's your turn to eat.

Food is served family style. For you "flat land fer-en- ners", as the mountain people call these daily invaders from the South, that means that you sit at huge long tables on the inside covered with plastic table cloths and share (and pass) to each other down the table some of the best fried chikin�, mountain speckled trout, BBQ, pitchers of sweet ice tea, (no booze), and vegetables in the world. The food is fresh, grown locally with nothing frozen, and brought to you by some of the nicest local food servers you would ever want to meet. Again you share conversation with those you have never met before, whether you want to or not.

Maybe nothing new here yet, but maybe but when combined with the panning for gold tale, which is another story, is what makes the Dahlonega adventures something that our family will never forget.

The town of Dahlonega was founded in the middle of gold country. Too long a post for now but if anybody is interested, there is more to the story.

Thanks for reading this far.

Old Yeller

(08/23/2001; 00:07:30 MDT - Msg ID: 60123)

Black Blade

Given the long term fundamentals of gas supply and demand,it looks as if the short term obsessed market is giving out early Christmas presents.Reminds me of the $5 per barrel oil predicted by "The Economist" in mid 1998. View Yesterday's Discussion.

wolf

(08/23/2001; 03:44:51 MDT - Msg ID: 60124)

Petition : Give it your support

Clarify US.Policy on Gold and Gold Accounting

Signatures so far : ONLY 1467

Goal: 10.000

Deadline : ongoing .....

http://www.thepetitionsite.com/takeaction/365824991

Zenidea

(08/23/2001; 04:06:54 MDT - Msg ID: 60125)

Black Blade and all

Yes mate I have to agree that the "reality" re the bone pile
seems to have some substance to it. In Aussie now our PM
is hinting to have them/us work until we are 70 !. As it stands now just 15 hrs work a week is enough to cook the books and thus doctor the unemployment figures and that does not include the single mums and dads. At this stage he has his grand work for the dole scheme that now as I understand it includes up to 39 year olds. But he did ( heresay ) get rid of poverty; now its called financially impaired.

Sometimes I need employ people privately, I wonder what
an add in the local paper negotiable grams of Au, PT, PD, AG per hour or liters of gas or moonshine would attract?.

You know friends perhaps many of us here are at a point whereby we dont really give a tinkers about what we shall eat, drink or wherewithall be clothed or rather have found
financial contentment. i.e. "Who gives a toss what happens in the world financial world, Im covered and my children are with land, and the fruits thereof". But if there is ONE THING that irks me off to the max, it is people in power calling themselves and there mates Honourable whom ask the populas to swallow the dribble in this obvious democratic liberal/labour dualopoly. (Been around)

Passing a glass of Hennessy Cognac from the freezer with ice to Megatron !; . Bottoms up and a Toast to GOLD EN TRUTH !.
a toast to the laws of nature ( physics ) A toast to Quartz and a Toast to USAGOLD!.

Zenidea

(08/23/2001; 04:29:42 MDT - Msg ID: 60126)

In short

A toast to beauty.

CoBra(too)

(08/23/2001; 06:18:32 MDT - Msg ID: 60127)

Re: Caspian Oil

Thanks for your responses BB and Waterboy. Both of you conclude that the development of the potential oil finds in the region are so far lagging earlier expectations and the quality seems poor (sour crude). It still seems big enough to squabble as to who does it does belong, as the following news, taken from ME Newswire suggest:
TURKEY CONFRONTS IRAN OVER CASPIAN

ANKARA [MENL] -- Turkey has sent a harsh warning to Iran against fomenting tension in the oil-rich Caspian Sea.

Turkish officials said the government in Ankara has launched a series of military steps to stop Iran from pressing claims against Azerbaijan in the Caspian. The sea is shared by a handful of countries and is rich in oil and natural gas.

In the latest step, Turkish Chief of Staff, Gen. Huseyin Kivrikoglu leaves Ankara on Thursday for a three-day visit to Baku. The Turkish military chief will be accompanied by a force of 10 F-16 warplanes.

Kivrikoglu will meet Azeri Defense Minister Sefer Abiyev and President Haydar Aliyev. The Turkish general will also attend the first graduation ceremony of Azerbaijani War Academy.

Baku is regarded as a close ally of Turkey and receives military aid from Ankara. Azerbaijan is also a partner in the Baku-Ceyhan energy pipeline being promoted by the United States.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

cb2

Christopher

(08/23/2001; 06:55:57 MDT - Msg ID: 60128)

br549

I can tell, Sir, from one of your posts of yesterday on the powerball drawing that you were getting your news from channel 12. I thought that I was the only one from the Magnolia State that had an interest in the yellow metal.
Glad to see that I am wrong

Christopher

Gold Trail Update

(08/23/2001; 07:32:50 MDT - Msg ID: 60129)

The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated

The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.

auspec

(08/23/2001; 07:34:25 MDT - Msg ID: 60130)

BR {Brayer Rabbit}---- Aint No Way........

........you have ever been to Dahlonega, nice try! All this stuff about panning gold, antiques and good eatins, yet not even a casual mention of what Dahlonega is most famous for..................THE FUDGE SHOPPE in the square!
Chocolate GOLD! P-nut butter fudge, maple syrup fudge. WOW!
Can you say diabetic coma?
Regards,
auspec

Saxulum^

(08/23/2001; 08:34:12 MDT - Msg ID: 60131)

Coin Forgery. For the paranoid among us :-)

http://www.krautkramer.com/
I found out that there is a non invasive testing tool on the market,
using a.o. ultrasonics. ("made in Germay" -see Link above)
Special probes are produced for particular types of application.
For example to test gold bars and coins for forgery.

Pfew� Can we finally stop drilling holes in those coins.

PS: One source informed me that forgery appeared relatively
most among older common Swiss and French coins.

White Hills

(08/23/2001; 09:07:08 MDT - Msg ID: 60132)

Powerball

auspec, Rosebud,B549,goldquest,econoclast,Gandalf the White,winning numbers were 2-28-30-36-39-powerball 10, JUST MISSED. jACKPOT WAS 193,000,000.OO OR SO, 500 machines were down in Missouri for three hours Wed. due to a cut telephone line. SPECIAL NOTE; THE POWERBALL TRAIl WILL CONTINUE!!! Saturday night the jackpot will be around 300,000,000.00. This time the DEAL IS, The first 20 Posters on this forum that send me their HANDPICKED NUMBERS,THATS 5 NUMBERS ( 1 to 49) and powerball number (1-42), before 10:00 Friday morning , Pacific standard time, will be in the drawing. Special consideration for those posters that had previous numbers. Because I am leaving Las Vegas for Arizona on Friday I will be unable to confirm all requested numbers as I will be away from my computer prospecting until Sunday morning when I will post the winning numbers, if any.This is a lot of fun for me I hope you all feel the same way. If we do win the prize would be split between the winning number holder and me with a consolation prize to be given to all participating, the amount to be decided by the winners. White Hills

White Hills

(08/23/2001; 09:12:13 MDT - Msg ID: 60133)

BR549

I do know about the Gold in Ga., I will be there the first week in October in Brunswick, Ga. to vist my daughter. Would like to hear more. White Hills

ROSEBUD99

(08/23/2001; 09:19:10 MDT - Msg ID: 60134)

RE: White Hills lotto

Yes it was fun, thanks. How do you want the new #'S ?? Posted here?? email? (whats your address if so)

White Hills

(08/23/2001; 09:31:45 MDT - Msg ID: 60135)

ROSEBUD99

JUST POST YOUR NUMBERS HERE ON THE FORUM, WILL MAKE A GOOD RECORD OF ALL NUMBERS. White Hills

Tommy P

(08/23/2001; 09:34:48 MDT - Msg ID: 60136)

Powerball #'s

My #'s are 10, 17, 25, 41, 42

Cavan Man

(08/23/2001; 09:38:34 MDT - Msg ID: 60137)

Candy production moving offshore

E.J. Brach announced today in Chicago they will be closing their plant and moving production of their candy products either to the Southern US or, offshore due to high labor and domestic sugar pricing.

We can't seem to retain the candy manufacturing industry here in the US either?

White Hills

(08/23/2001; 09:39:38 MDT - Msg ID: 60138)

TommyP

Pick one more number for the Powerball. White Hills

Tommy P

(08/23/2001; 09:41:18 MDT - Msg ID: 60139)

power ball

Cavan Man

(08/23/2001; 09:46:09 MDT - Msg ID: 60140)

Yesterday's FT

Moscow may try to borrow $2bn next year

"Russia may try to borrow up to $2bn on international capital markets next year, its first commercial foreign borrowing since the rouble crash of 1998, Alexei Kudrin, finance minister said yesterday. But Russia did not plan to borrow from the IMF he said."

Swedish companies lose appetite for Krona

"Swedish companies are increasingly using foreign currencies rather than the Krona because of the domestic currency's volatility and the advent of the Euro, a leading Swedish bank said yesterday."

White Hills

(08/23/2001; 09:48:36 MDT - Msg ID: 60141)

Tommy P

Your In!! Good luck , White Hills

ROSEBUD99

(08/23/2001; 09:50:55 MDT - Msg ID: 60142)

RE: White Hills lotto

Ok, my numbers are... 06-13-16-31-34 powerball 25 All winnings to be converted to physical gold from our host and 5% donation to GATA. Thanks !! Go Gold, Go Gata, Go Trail Guide, Go Usagold !!

Matt

(08/23/2001; 09:55:00 MDT - Msg ID: 60143)

Now its come to this---

$300,000,000 vs watching the gold market grow like a stalagmite--ha,ha,--hey, all I buy is one ticket and my chance of winning is infinitely better.

Gandalf the White

(08/23/2001; 10:29:41 MDT - Msg ID: 60144)

There goes the US$ again !

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s&w=1&t=f&a=2Get some more YELLOW while you can !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(08/23/2001; 10:34:27 MDT - Msg ID: 60145)

White Hills' request !

5,13,21,29,44 and of course POWER BALL #37
Thanks for the fun, Sir White Hills.
Golden times are directly ahead.
<;-)

BR549

(08/23/2001; 11:25:40 MDT - Msg ID: 60146)

White Hills (msg#: 60132)

Powerball:

5-27-29-44-47
PBall: 11

Thanks,

Will also donate 5% to GATA and a lot to the biggest doggone party USAGers have ever had.

Thanks 300,000,000 Sir White Hills

This is great fun

BR549

(08/23/2001; 11:47:25 MDT - Msg ID: 60147)

Chocolate and Yellow GOLD

Christopher (msg#: 60128)-
I am located in Northern Florida Panhandle area but can pick up channel 12 in Montgomery. I do love the yellow stuff.

auspec (msg#: 60130)-
Threw my head back and got a great laugh out of your "Chocolate Gold" posting. Because of THE FUDGE SHOPPE, Dahlonega is one of the few towns in America that probably has more dentists per capita than attorneys.

White Hills (msg#: 60133)-
Brunswick is in proximity to where John Doe's wild pigs roam. It is a beautiful old town on the Eastern Coast of Georgia. The only true four star restaurant in the state is located at the Cloisters not far down the road. On Saturday night, old Atlanta money visits the hotel and ballroom dancing takes over from tennis and golf as the activity of the elite. I have hacked up their golf course--- forever leaving my mark there. Another installment of panning in Dahlonega on the way.

Cavan Man (msg#: 60137)-
I can't understand why BB's bone pile keep growing geometrically. Maybe everybody that is out of work in the U.S. can sneak across the border to Mexico in the middle of the night and get a job at one of our manufacturing facilities.

White Hills

(08/23/2001; 13:27:31 MDT - Msg ID: 60148)

BR549, Gandalf the White,ROSEBUD99

Your in!!! Good Luck, White Hills

goldquest

(08/23/2001; 13:33:57 MDT - Msg ID: 60149)

White Hills

My favorite numbers-1-11-9-27-37 PB-1 TIA!

R Powell

(08/23/2001; 13:35:22 MDT - Msg ID: 60150)

White Hills/wolf/Black Blade

May I try 21,22,23,24,25 with 26 for the powerball. Thanks. After Babe Ruth signed what was in his time a very good contract he was asked where he would spent his fortune. He replied that he would invest some in good whiskey, some chasing women and that he would probably waste the rest.
Mr. wolf mentioned the 1467 signers of the petition (re to 60124). I believe there are about 1500 included on GATA's e-mail alert list. I know that the gold-eagle site has an ongoing count of visiters which probably helps them sell advertisement. There is a count here too but it's not promoted as M.K. doesn't clutter the place with ads, (thanks CPM). I've often wondered how many (goldbugs) we are as I have found very few of us during the course of my daily affairs. I guess we're special (or nuts).
Black Blade, what's going on with the price of natural gas?? It's down again today. A December put comes to mind. What' driving this down? Temporary good weather with some industrial slowdown?? Any thoughts. Thanks
Rich

R Powell

(08/23/2001; 13:37:55 MDT - Msg ID: 60151)

Correction/ BB

Lets make that "a December call comes to mind."

BR549

(08/23/2001; 13:45:36 MDT - Msg ID: 60152)

goldquest (msg#: 60149)-

FWIW: You need five numbers + PB #.(need to replace your 1)

BR549

(08/23/2001; 14:27:14 MDT - Msg ID: 60153)

POG in EURO's

FOA-The EURO has indeed risen against the dollar as was correctly forecast earlier.

If the dollar is the world's standard currency, and today's POG is valued in manipulated greenbacks, is there a direct correlation between the future POG in EUROs without the Greenback entering into the equation? That if FRN's=xValue of Euro's and FRN's=yValue of GOLD, then xValue=yValue. Will there come a day when xValue of EURO's will = yValue of Gold? If the EURO is a non-manipulated 15% backed value-based currency, then will not goldbugs be better off in the future to exchange their gold for EURO's rather than greenbacks?

White Hills

(08/23/2001; 14:58:35 MDT - Msg ID: 60154)

goldquest, R Powell

Your in!!! Good Luck, goldquest your numbers ok, The first 5 numbers and then the powerball are really seperate draws. White Hills

site steward

(08/23/2001; 15:03:46 MDT - Msg ID: 60155)

Just a thought for BR549

You pondered whether people with gold would be "better off in the future to exchange their gold for EURO's rather than greenbacks?"

I'd say, all things considered, it ultimately depends on what brand of currency is required for the vending machines in use at your country club.

R.

Old Yeller

(08/23/2001; 15:26:15 MDT - Msg ID: 60156)

Rich

If you think natural gas has bottomed'sell a put.This is what Leonard Kaplan has been doing with silver and gold with considerable success.I was selling puts for FN and PDG last year in the dark days,one of my few profitable trades over the past few years.

Old Yeller

(08/23/2001; 15:31:20 MDT - Msg ID: 60157)

I've been waiting for this

http://www.tocquevillefunds.com/press/archives.php?id=22
New John Hathaway commentary.

Sierra Madre

(08/23/2001; 15:32:08 MDT - Msg ID: 60158)

BR549...ABOUT EURO GOLD RESERVES...

I'd like to hear from someone who is knowledgeable about the Euro reserves.

That 15% is not, as I understand it, a percentage of M1.

It is 15% of the RESERVES, and the reserves themselves are rather skimpy - my impression - of money in circulation.

Will somebody tell me I'm wrong or not evaluating the importance of gold held by ECB and European Central Banks?
Maybe I haven't done my homework on this.

Thanks

Sierra

BR549

(08/23/2001; 15:42:52 MDT - Msg ID: 60159)

EURO's

site steward (msg#: 60155)�

Touche! I am not going to exchange my gold for any fiat unless I have to for survival. I am trying to understand what the point is about whether the EURO will reign supreme over the dollar or not, since they both are fiat.

Kindly explain this FOA statement if goldbugs would not be better off in the future to exchange their gold for EURO's rather than greenbacks?: "The war between gold and the dollar has been over for a while now. The action, today, is between the dollar and the euro arena and this is what will break the price lock on gold. Leaving gold bugs with a lot of questions that ask why this: both systems will strive for a higher currency price for gold; one doing it because they have to; the other doing it because they want to! The casualty on this battlefield will be the world gold market as we know it. A market caught between how Western perception thinks gold's price should be "discovered" and at what price level trading in physical gold craters the entire paper structure. A structure of American based "paper gold". "

Sierra-
I would like to know what that 15% consists of myself.

goldquest

(08/23/2001; 16:21:43 MDT - Msg ID: 60160)

White Hills

Thanks a Millions! Best of luck to you! goldquest

John Doe

(08/23/2001; 17:14:52 MDT - Msg ID: 60161)

Canadian Golds

Does anyone know why these Canadian juniors perked up the last couple months all at the same time?

CA:GCU - Gold Canyon (or GCU.V)

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=CA%3AGCU&sid=0&o_symb=CA%3AGCU&freq=1&time=8

CA:NRI - Novagold (or NRI.TO)

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=CA%3ANRI&sid=0&o_symb=CA%3ANRI&freq=1&time=8

CA:WCE - Willow Creek (or WCE.V)

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=CA%3AWCE&sid=0&o_symb=CA%3AWCE&freq=1&time=8

Not investment advice!!!

Black Blade

(08/23/2001; 17:57:41 MDT - Msg ID: 60162)

RE: R. Powell - NatGas

http://199.97.97.163/IMDS%PMANAT0%read%/home/content/users/imds/feeds/writersdesk/2001/08/22/eng-powerm-000001/eng-powerm-000001_191520_25_1731252949685
The article at the link tell smuch of the story. The AGA which I used to subscribe cannot seem to get accurate information about storage injection rates and they have to consistently revise estimates. So I dropped them like a hot potato. The problem with these high injection rates is that it does not match the production data. This excess NG seems to "magically" appear in the AGA data. Another point is that if the data is correct then an extreme large unprecedented increase in natural gas usage is occurring because there simply is not that much storage capacity. Recently there has been a report that marketers have been using storage facilities to manage the NG market and "manipulate" supply coming to market. We are currnetly in a slack period with moderate weather and NG prices should trend lower prior to the fall and winter season where NG use is much greater than summer and spring use. These are just a few reasons why the NG prices are temporarily lower. In the next three or four months it could sharply reverse as supply is drawn down. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(08/23/2001; 18:05:11 MDT - Msg ID: 60163)

Forbes Body Count

http://www.forbes.com/2001/01/30/layoffs.html
The "Bone Pile" grows to 9 year highs. There are now over 3 million people collecting unemployment benefits! Where is all the out cry as these bodies keep piling up? The Talking Heads and Pied Pipers would have us think that this is the best economic boom in history, yet look under all the spin and slime and the real story is that we are slipping over the edge into the abyss with growing unemployment, lower corporate earnings, unprecedented growing money supply, higher energy costs, lower consumer confidence, negative savings, etc. This is going to be one hell of a Recession.

- Black Blade

Cavan Man

(08/23/2001; 18:10:57 MDT - Msg ID: 60164)

John Doe

I track X-Cal Resources (XCL) which is perhaps the most outstanding property in North America. Due to the extended low POG, exploration by large mining companies has been curtailed and; high grading ensued. Reserves will need to be replaced by these same companies. What better place to look than at companies like XCL where the deposits are proven and not encumbered in any way.

Black Blade

(08/23/2001; 18:14:47 MDT - Msg ID: 60165)

US watchdog to look into 'pro forma' figures

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0,,5-2001292567,00.html
Snippit:

AMERICA'S accounting standards body is to investigate the controversial methods used by loss-making companies to make themselves look profitable, amid concern that there is a "lack of a common definition of financial performance". The inquiry comes amid criticism of the way Internet companies such as Amazon.com present their financial results to Wall Street. These results often feature so-called "pro forma" figures, which do not take into account a wide range of costs, such as tax and interest, that would make a company's financial performance look far less impressive. Economists argue that many US stocks are still overpriced because they are valued according to pro forma profits. Historically, investors have used net profits to value shares of companies, a far less flattering form of analysis.

Black Blade: If GAAP were used instead of Pro Forma standards, then the NASDAQ would be closer to 600 and Amazon.com would just be a bitter memory. The market indices are floating on dreams and misinformation. The SEC needs to do some serious investigation (They won't). This Recession will get very ugly. Time to "Go for the Gold."

site steward

(08/23/2001; 18:14:57 MDT - Msg ID: 60166)

Sierra Madre's inquiry about gold reserves

---"I'd like to hear from someone who is knowledgeable about the Euro reserves. That 15% is not, as I understand it, a percentage of M1. It is 15% of the RESERVES, and the reserves themselves are rather skimpy - my impression - of money in circulation."---

Sierra,
I'll share my view on this along with some numbers that may or may not be of any interest to you.

You are right about the 15% gold figure applying to reserves, not to M1; however, that figure applies only to the initial composition of the European Central Bank's own international reserve assets -- received from the subscriptions of its member national central banks (originally 747 tonnes, now 767 tonnes with the inclusion of Greece).

If we were to look at gold holdings as a percent of reserves within the entire Eurosystem of Central Banks (ECB plus 12 nations), we would see that the gold percentage of reserves represents nearly 32 percent of the EUR 402.1 billion total international reserve assets (gold=EUR128.3 billion (12,540 tonnes) and foreign paper=EUR273.8 billion).

What is most important here, as I see it, is not the size of these reserves against M1, but rather, the fact that these reserves are quarterly marked to market, unlike the monetary gold holdings of the United States Treasury which are arrested at $42 per ounce. As the market value of gold climbs, the Eurosystem will gain a windfall on its gold reserves, offsetting any coincident decline in foreign paper reserves.

Given the choice over the long term, it makes more sense for the Eurosystem (and other nations adopting this reserve structure) to foster an international economic environment that throws natural support behind gold values rather than continuing the "unnatural" system of support of their other reserve asset, U.S. Treasuries, that results in a primary benefit accruing to the United States.

As a matter of fact, the end-of-June mark-to-market revaluation of reserves resulted in the gold value climbing by nearly 10.1 billion euros, eclipsing the 6.6 billion performance of the twice-as-large block of foreign currency. Now, bear in mind as we approach the end-of-September revaluation, the value of dollar holdings has actually DECLINED in euro terms since that time. If you can foresee this trend continuing, you can surely see how gold may become the primary reserve asset of the euro system. Seen in this light, why should any nation hold excessive foreign paper as a primary reserve asset when gold can fill the bill?

Nevertheless, since you raised the subject of Eurosystem reserves versus M1, the value of M1 was nearly EUR 2,100 billion at the start of the year, and of that, EUR 346 billion is currently in the form of circulating banknotes of the legacy Euro-member currencies.

I hope it's been helpful.

R.

Mr Gresham

(08/23/2001; 18:15:52 MDT - Msg ID: 60167)

Old Yeller: Hathaway

http://www.tocquevillefunds.com/press/archives.php?id=22Thanks for bringing that link to us. Definitely worth reading...

Basically, he's saying: If it is government manipulation, then we've got a double wave going our way: reversal of market trend (CB fundamentals & public psychology) and the end of that manipulation, whenever it is no longer feasible/desirable for them to do so.

Frustrating as it has been for us as POG-watchers, we've had this time now sitting in the classroom of "hard investment knocks" to mature as gold wealth-holders. And that will make a tremendous difference to us individually as we live the rest of our lives with whatever events unfold in our economic lives.

Thanks to all who provide us this space to think these things through...

Black Blade

(08/23/2001; 18:21:34 MDT - Msg ID: 60168)

RE: Cavan Man

X-Cal Resources (XCL)is an "interesting" property with a lot of potential. I can't discuss it in detail due to proprietary info. They have the old AMAX Sleeper deposit north of Winnemucca, NV. There have been some very "interesting" assays from various overlooked areas. When POG starts flying, it could be something to investigate. Currently they are "fluffing" the heaps for gold. This was a mine with visible colloidal gold riddled through adularia. I have an excellent sample as a gift. Unfortunately AMAX gutted the deposit and did not fully exploit the whole potential. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(08/23/2001; 18:31:33 MDT - Msg ID: 60169)

Stocks Fall on Retail Slump, Jobs Data

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010823/business_markets_stocks_dc_10.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks closed slightly lower on Thursday after retailers like Kmart Corp. (NYSE:KM) posted poor financial results and helped reignite Wall Street's fears a slowdown in consumer spending will further weaken the economy. The latest economic data did little to brighten the outlook: The government said first-time jobless claims rose more than expected last week and the number of people who remained on jobless rolls climbed to 3.2 million -- the highest in nine years.

The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Robert McTeer, added fuel to the fire after he said unemployment was likely to rise even further. ``After seven interest-rate cuts and probably the most aggressive Fed in a generation, there's no evidence things are getting better. In fact, there's evidence things are getting worse,'' said Michael Weiner, portfolio manager for Banc One Investment Advisors, which oversees $135 billion. "There are lots of things to be negative about.''

Black Blade: Gold Insurance? Oh yeah - I think so! The unemployment numbers are going to get much worse. This Recession is going to be Very Ugly. Remember the 1970's and 1980's?

R Powell

(08/23/2001; 18:39:09 MDT - Msg ID: 60170)

Black Blade/Old Yeller

Thanks for the n.g. information. It seems that n.g. can be added to the list of others that lacks good, reliable numbers for supply and demand analysis. The USDA will often "revise" figuers for the previous year or previous years to account for numbers that don't add up.
I'm still wrestling with silver, trying to get as accurate a number as possible as to above ground world supply.
Old Yeller, thanks for the suggestion but I can only sell covered options due to margin requirements which neither my wife, my broker nor myself want to worry about!
Some day when I'm more knowledgeable and wealthier I may venture into selling naked futures or options, maybe?
Rich

Black Blade

(08/23/2001; 18:40:51 MDT - Msg ID: 60171)

Lucent details layoff plans

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/zd/20010823/tc/lucent_details_layoff_plans_1.html
Snippit:

The telecommunications-equipment maker plans to reduce its work force by half--that's 17,000 jobs--by March 2002. Telecommunications-equipment maker Lucent Technologies specified plans Thursday to reduce the company's work force by half. In a presentation to Wall Street analysts, the company clarified its previously announced layoff plans and said it will remove 17,000 more workers on top of the 10,500 workers already laid off and the 8,500 who chose to take early retirement.

Of the 17,000 on the chopping block, the company will cut 5,000 outsourced jobs and the remaining cuts will come from inside the company, which will bring to company's total headcount to between 57,000 and 62,000 by March of next year. Lucent finished the year 2000 with 123,000 employees. Included in the total cuts are the 17,000 employees from its spun-off Agere unit and 6,000 employees of its optical fiber unit, which was sold to Furukawa Electric and Corning for $2.75 billion. Lucent partially spun off Agere in an IPO last March and plans to spin off all of its 80 percent stake in the optical components maker by March of 2002.

Black Blade: The Bodies are piling up faster and faster! The "Bone Pile" is so high that one needs wings to keep above it. This is not a healthy economy by any standard. Get PMs, get basic necessities, and get out of debt. There will be no mercy when the ax man shows up and everyone is looking out for number one.

uponroof

(08/23/2001; 18:41:44 MDT - Msg ID: 60172)

Jim Rogers

http://www.jimrogers.com/Good Evenin all,

Just check in with Jim Rogers to see where in the world he is now. Well he's down in Argentina at the end of the Pan American Highway. This 'little road' starts in Alaska and ends at the southern tip of Argentina. A nice road to travel if you have some time to enjoy life. Rogers has a special Mercedes Benz and trailer that he is taking around the world (see photo). Jim Rogers is famous for his advice which has made many fortunes. One of his rules is to "do the opposite of what Central Banks do". Jim is an outspoken hard money advocate. Below is a bit from his home site (not the one above) which reads like it was authored at USAGOLD.

What is Money?

No. Pulling that green stuff out of your pocket doesn't do it. Ask yourself why is it money? Will it always be money? Remember, that green stuff is fiat paper currency. (Fiat: command, decree, order) And, no fiat paper currency in history has ever NOT become worthless. Has ever NOT constantly decreased in value relative to something that has intrinsic value like land, gold, etc.

Many people take money for granted. But if you nail down exactly what it is and how it works, it can really pay off in the long run. For money to work it needs three essential elements. It has to be a unit of measure. Money measures the value of something, whether it is tangible or intangible. Like a yard stick measures the length of something. It has to be a medium of exchange. Something most people will accept in return for something they just gave. It makes the division of labor far more practical.

What does a mechanical contractor have that he could
exchange on a weekly basis that you would readily accept in return for labor if a medium of exchange did not exist?
It has to be a store of value. The cash in your pocket is a means of storing value or purchasing power temporarily. The same holds true of the cash or purchasing power that you store for a longer period in a checking account or even longer in a savings account.

Your politicians, now a days, take on financial obligations that they know they don't have money for. When the bill comes due, they simply create money out of thin air. It's money that is not backed by anything. The total value of goods and services in the economy did not increase. Yet, there is now more money in circulation. There is now more dollars chasing the same amount of goods and services. The price of them simply goes up.

This is another way that your government takes purchasing power or stored value (property) from you. It's not so much how many dollars you have, but, how much they buy. What your store of value's purchasing power is. Remember, at one point in the history of the US, before the government really got into the money game, back when the Federal Reserve Bank was held to be unconstitutional, (February 1870 The US Supreme Court, in its decision in Hepburn v. Griswold, declared the legal tender laws unconstitutional under Fifth Amendment protections against the taking of property without just compensation.) stored money actually increased in value. A central bank is a government's mechanism for creating money that is not backed by anything. Just like today's copying machines are the mechanisms that counterfeiters use to create money that is not backed by anything.

Politicians know that there is a limit to how fast they can raise tax rates. They also know the more they borrow in the debt markets(markets for bills, notes and bonds) the higher the rate of interest they have to pay. And, the less they have to spend on other programs. They only have one means left to come up with more money. In this country, the Federal Reserve Bank. They simply order the bureaucrats at the "Fed" to "make" money. How they do it is a bit convoluted but they get the job done.

How can they get away with this? Because they know that most of their constituents do not know what money is, nor the implications of the type of money(fiat paper currency) that they use. Therefore their constituents can not know what inflation is let alone what the cause or causes are. Serious inflation is caused by politicians and their bureaucrats. And, serious inflation causes major economic downturns. Politicians and politico/bureaucrats simply blame
something else; and get away with it.

When your politicians and bureaucrats "make" too much money: They decrease the length of your yardstick, but still call it a yard. They decrease the acceptance of your dollars as a medium of exchange. This usually increases interest rates and decreases economic activity. They decrease the amount of value, purchasing power, you had stored in your dollars. This is the arbitrary, and for many people unseen, taking of your property without your consent and without compensation.

Non elected bureaucrats at the Fed and Treasury are hired to decide how much and when. This is the reason nations have heavily regulated banking systems and government central banks. The "Fed" is relatively new. Created in 1913.

Counterfeiting is illegal because it devalues existing dollars. It takes value(your property) that you have stored in them away from you without your consent and without compensation. It is also illegal because politicians are in the same business and do not want competition. They wrote the rules to the game so that they have little competition. Still, politicians. and counterfeiters directly compete
with each other.

end-(sorry for the length)

BR549-One of my men is traveling down Rt 202 tonight to Delaware where powerball machines are smokin like Greenspans printing presses. He's got 100 FRN's of mine to buy my tix. Told him 549 combos and autos. Good Luck all!

GOLD! on soon.

Netking

(08/23/2001; 18:43:38 MDT - Msg ID: 60173)

Rich. - WSS Report

How's the reading of the WSS report going, what's your perspective towards the market thus far?
I think timing wise that the last three months of this year are looing good. - Cheers Murray

BR549

(08/23/2001; 19:00:17 MDT - Msg ID: 60174)

GOLD! Now

uponroof (msg#: 60172)
Another great post! When Jim Rodgers left CNBC to travel, GE Jack's PR Machine lost a great deal of merit. I only want a mere 10% for using those winning 549 combo's. Good Luck!! I hope someone here wins.

GOLD! Now on the History Channel.

Followed by the Rep. Gary Sleezezoid hitting Connie's softballs out of the park.

Chris Powell

(08/23/2001; 19:18:15 MDT - Msg ID: 60175)

Tocqueville Fund's Hathaway realizes that GATA is right

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/866A new essay by the respected gold fund manager
and market analyst.

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/866

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Cavan Man

(08/23/2001; 19:21:50 MDT - Msg ID: 60176)

Many thanks Black Blade

I think it is even better than you have hinted.

BR549

(08/23/2001; 20:00:48 MDT - Msg ID: 60177)

GOLD!

Carter first looking into King Tut's tomb at a mound of gold artifacts for the first time. Talk about your heart skipping a beat. I stood in line for three hours to see this exhibition in Washington, D.C. when the Egyptians let the U$ borrow it for a few months. One of the most beautiful sites that I ever seen.

In the--- yeah! Right! Department:
Tut's curse, not a real curse but a fungus that incubated inside the tomb for centuries�yeah Right!

Mel Fisher kids, the next generation, diving on the ocean floor for chests of Greenbacks and Euro's-- yeah! Right!

Mel offering 35% of the discovery to the Government of the U$ as compensation for his treasure discoveries, the greed of the Federal Government wanting it all, and The Supreme Court ruling that Mel gets it all�A true YES!!! RIGHT!!

Tomorrow night-Gold as the universal currency!

R Powell

(08/23/2001; 20:02:55 MDT - Msg ID: 60178)

History channel tomorrow night

will, according to Roger Mudd, examine gold as the "universal currency of wealth and power".
Netking, I'm still making my way through the World Silver Survey 2001. I'll have some info this weekend.
Rich

Chris Powell

(08/23/2001; 20:24:26 MDT - Msg ID: 60179)

Fox News interview with John Hathaway of the Tocqueville Gold Fund

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/867Amazing -- a gold guy on a TV network.

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/867

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

BR549

(08/23/2001; 20:42:06 MDT - Msg ID: 60180)

Rep. Gary Sleezezoid�"Ahhh never had sex with that woman"

yeah! Right!

uponroof

(08/23/2001; 21:07:05 MDT - Msg ID: 60181)

GOLD!/GATA

GOLD!

A touch of eternal wealth tonight as Mr Jones, searching for the 'Arc of the Covenant' displayed how God (his servants) used gold to house His most precious earthly treasure, the ten commandments.....nice to know God thinks a lot of gold also.

Watch out for tommorrow night.......the connection between man's paper and gold is the subject. If we are to be ambushed, this will be the place (I did not like the smile on Mr George Milling-Stanley, of the World Gold Council, face).

Then again we may be surprised and watch them point out that gold never loses all value, while fiat quite often does.
***********************************************************

Hathaway is a great ambassador for gold as is his up 11% Tocqueville Gold Fund. He is a major connection to the now floundering mainstream equities investor. Good job Fox!

BTW-We have come one heck of a long way in a very short time thanks to GATA getting the word out. I believe the shift came after the South African conference...the momentum has never stopped. When mainstream, wire rim, Tv worthy guys like Hathaway start repeating the 'wild GATA accusations' you know it can't be long. The cartel better have one hell of a secret weapon up their dirty sleeve to stop 'the herd' cause the standard procedure won't survive much longer.

Black Blade

(08/23/2001; 21:33:12 MDT - Msg ID: 60182)

Oil Prices Jump on Midwest Refinery Woes

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010823/bs/markets_energy_dc_3.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil prices pushed higher on Thursday as troubles mounted at domestic refineries, especially in the supply-starved midcontinent region. Prices rallied late in the session after Citgo said it expects a fire-damaged 160,000 barrel per day crude unit at its Lemont, Illinois, refinery to be out of service for nearly six months following a shutdown August 14. The Lemont plant's outage has sparked fuel supply concerns in the Midwest, a region already suffering from low inventories of gasoline and agricultural diesel ahead of the autumn harvest. U.S. supply has also been tightened by plant problems in the Gulf Coast refining center, while U.S. and Canadian refiners are also heading into a busy round of autumn maintenance work.

Black Blade: Refinery problems are creeping up again. We are almost at the time where refineries get into their maintenance season prior to the switch over to reformulated boutique fuels and gear up for heating oil. The infrastructure problems also still persist. Could get "interesting" with rising fuel prices like last year. The Grasshoppers will start to whine again.

Black Blade

(08/23/2001; 21:39:48 MDT - Msg ID: 60183)

Asia in the Red

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
The Nikkei and Hang Seng are running neck and neck in a race to sub 10,000. Rumors persist that a couple of Japanese banks are in deep trouble and that the Japanese government is back in the market again purchasing equities. If so, it has been a dismal failure.

Netking

(08/23/2001; 22:15:34 MDT - Msg ID: 60184)

Satellites search for Noah's Ark

http://www.msnbc.com/news/618351.asp?cp1=1#BODYSlightly off topic, but a golden story nevertheless:

Military and private satellite snapshots of Mount Ararat in eastern Turkey reveal an anomaly that researchers say might be the remains of Noah's Ark. A soon-to-be-launched commercial spacecraft will focus powerful cameras on the mysterious mountainside oddity to help unravel its true nature . . .

LeSin

(08/24/2001; 05:24:04 MDT - Msg ID: 60185)

Test

TestTestView Yesterday's Discussion.

escapethematrix

(08/24/2001; 07:27:14 MDT - Msg ID: 60186)

U.S. Orders for Durable Goods Fell 0.6% in July

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topsum&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AO4ZQhRIxVS5TLiBPSnippet:

The 0.6 percent decline last month followed a 2.6 percent decrease in June that was larger than previously reported, the Commerce Department said. The July level of orders, at $182 billion, is the lowest since July 1998. Excluding transportation equipment, orders sank to the lowest level in more than four years.
``The adjustment to the bubble in technology equipment continues,'' said Tim McGee, chief economist at Tokai Bank Ltd. in New York. ``There's going to be an extremely difficult and long adjustment to get things back in balance.''

The seemingly endless parade of revisions and poor numbers continues unabated......Got Gold??

escapethematrix

(08/24/2001; 07:40:02 MDT - Msg ID: 60187)

Huge federal budget surplus nearly gone

http://seattlep-i.nwsource.com/business/36230_surplus23.shtmlWASHINGTON -- Ending a brief but giddy era of fiscal plenty, the Bush administration released figures yesterday showing that the projected federal budget surpluses outside of the Social Security system had dwindled to almost nothing for the next several years.

As recently as April, the White House projected a surplus of $122 billion in the non-Social-Security federal system for the fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30. For the current fiscal year, the administration estimated, the government would run a surplus outside of Social Security of about $600 million, an almost negligible amount in a $1.9 trillion budget and a $10 trillion economy.

Quite the "forecast, eh?? From 122 Billion ex SS to 600 million in only 5 months....What will the "surplus" look like by the end of the year??

Cavan Man

(08/24/2001; 09:26:31 MDT - Msg ID: 60188)

Bill Bonner's Daily Reckoning

A quote from Richard Russell in today's commentary:

"In today's market, a dollar buys 3 or 4 cents of earnings and no dividend--it's a suckers market. It is a Las Vegas market. Today Wall Street is one step away from Las Vegas. The difference; wall Street enjoys greater publicity: over-priced stocks are touted around the clock, and millions of people are living with the illusion that stocks at today's prices are a good holding for 'the long haul".

BR549

(08/24/2001; 10:13:53 MDT - Msg ID: 60189)

Panning for GOLD in Dahlonega, GA began in the 1820's and continues to this day

Dahlonega, GA was fortunate in that its location was in proximity to a large metropolitan city and it still survives as a new economy. Gift shops, art galleries, FUDGE SHOPPES, and jewelers inhabit the town's old buildings.

I am sure that some ghost towns out West that represented "boom towns" in gold rush era still exist in this revised economic form. Most disappear into the dust that existed before the hunt for gold.

Sitting on the front porch of the "The Smith House" waiting your turn at the long family style tables inside was a very relaxing experience. While waiting or after eating, you could prospect for gold. Under a tent in the front yard was a prospector's load of dirt hauled in from the local digs. For a few bucks per pan, your family could dip into this ore, and sift the dirt out of the pan's ridges down to the precious nuggets on the bottom. You were allowed to keep any gold that you found and they guaranteed you that you would find gold for your efforts or your money back. How could you lose?

There were very personable young locals there to assist you and they would pick out the gold from your efforts (a.k.a. flakes and transfer them into small vials, about the size of the first knuckle of your little finger), and hold them up to the light for your inspection. Let's get another pan. Great fun.

Of course, when you look at the yellow stuff in the sunlight, greed starts to take over. Let's buy our own pans and set off exploring on the hope that the new mother lode is out there somewhere. I'll bet my Aunt who lives near here will know where to find the yellow stuff.

My Aunt, on my father's side, was born in Forsythe County as my dad was (also birth place of Junior Samples). She was salt of the earth whom you would really need to be sick to dislike.

Her house was located down the road to the town of Dahlonega on the main route up from Atlanta. What was unusual about her property was the flat land next to the road was very narrow and to quickly gives way to a steep drop off. Therefore their mountain home was built down the side on the mountain. The house had seven levels, each layer built as they could afford it, and could be seen from seven states across the mountains. In fact, people who lived across the valley from my Aunt would drive over to see how her house could exist without falling off of the side of the mountain. None of them obviously, had ever been to California.

When you pulled up into Aunt Edyth's (correct spelling) narrow front yard, you walked into her house onto the front porch. The door was never locked and there was no doorbell. From the front porch you went down a level into the living room, down another level into the dining room, down another level into the kitchen, down another level into the pantry, down another level into a bedroom, down to the final level onto the back porch. Other bedrooms and bathrooms were situated off of these seven levels. You went down into the house calling her name gently and hoping she would answer before her new husband, Spencer, would shoot you.

Her primary occupation during the week was day care for the working mother's of the area. Our kids couldn't drink her cow's milk as it tasted funny. Mountain kids didn't know what city milk tasted like.

After a brief tour of the dwelling and some small talk, Spencer loaded us all into his pickup truck, adults in the front, me and the kids in the back, over the mountain roads. Finally, after a six flags type ride we stopped at a cold mountain stream back up in the woods. Using our new plastic gold pans and with the vials safely in our pockets, we scooped up some sand and began the process of swishing the light sand out and scouring the bottom of the pan for nuggets. After a couple of hours the kids were ready to go. They dragged me back towards the pickup truck and we returned to the house on the hill. Back to Atlanta and the real world. No gold this time, maybe next time. Prospecting for gold is hard work. But the thrill is like none other. Some of our family's "funnest" times.

Sierra Madre

(08/24/2001; 10:16:59 MDT - Msg ID: 60190)

Hooverization in progress..."Vanishing" surplus

As the weeks and months go by, I get a stronger and stronger feeling that George W. Bush is soon going to bear the complete and total blame for the Depression on its way.

It seems odd that he should not have come out of his corner, from day one, punching day after day: "This is what Clinton and the Democrats left us!" But no, he says nothing in that regard.

Was this part of some agreement made in those weeks when taking office was in doubt?

Clinton will forever be associated with: fabulous prosperity. G.W. Bush will be associated in the history books with: Depression and who knows what worse.

Puzzles of our time.

Sierra

Cavan Man

(08/24/2001; 10:52:27 MDT - Msg ID: 60191)

But Sierra.......

The DOW is winning today and the USD is rising. How to explain the paradox (tongue in cheek)?

Gold Trail Update

(08/24/2001; 10:54:31 MDT - Msg ID: 60192)

The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated

The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.

BR549

(08/24/2001; 11:23:12 MDT - Msg ID: 60193)

The Exchange Stabilization Fund

http://www.iie.com/policybriefs/news99-8.htm
According to GATA, Turk, and recently Tocqueville's John Hathaway, the culprit in gold manipulation is the Secretary of the Treasury via the use of the Exchange
Stabilization Fund.

ESF was originally intended for stabilization of loans and foreign exchange intervention. Now SDR's. Then--

Snippet: "Critics of the ESF raise five objections: (1) the account is a secretive "slush fund"; (2) the treasury has strayed from the original purposes of the ESF; (3) loans from the account illegally or unconstitutionally circumvent the congressional appropriations process; (4) the mechanism by which the treasury can swap foreign exchange in the account for dollars with the Federal Reserve�"warehousing"� is a subterfuge and undermines the central bank's independence; and (5) stabilization loans create moral hazard. "

Congress failed to pass an oversight bill during the Clinton Administration and the potential for abuse (or doing the right thing) has grown but still lies within The Department of Treasury rather than the Federal Reserve.

If gold prices are being manipulated via SDR Certificates, then the capability to reign in ESF gold price fixing abuses should be within Secretary O�Neill's power.

Sierra Madre

(08/24/2001; 11:52:09 MDT - Msg ID: 60194)

Cavan Man....the "paradox"...

There is a terrific battle going on behind the scenes, to keep the house of cards from collapsing...

The situation is desperate and no holds are barred; the Establishment knows that it must throw everything it's got at the markets to keep the markets from melting down, as the consequences of the melt-down are politically unthinkable.

The fundamental situation is untenable; the inevitable melt-down will happen. All that matters to those in charge, is to prevent it from happening, for TODAY.

When EARNINGS turn up in the U.S. economy, that will be a sign that the game is going to last longer. It doesn't seem to me that we will see earnings turn up any time soon. and in the meantime, a lot of very ugly things can happen.

Ultimately, the paper game MAY go on longer than the time I have left to live. Empires can take some time to collapse. Things do move much faster in this day and age, though.

So, "we wait and watch".

*******

On another note, check out

http://www.rense.com/general12/crns.htm

Food for thought in another vein.

By the way, and FWIW, the Mayan Calendar ends in August, 2012. After that, "nada". Can be dismissed as nonsense - if metaphysics is nonsense.

Sierra

John Doe

(08/24/2001; 12:29:58 MDT - Msg ID: 60195)

.gov $130 billion in hole YTD

http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htmw/one month to go...

Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD

(08/24/2001; 12:40:04 MDT - Msg ID: 60196)

An Invitation to Join Us Regularly at the Commentary & Review Page

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Ed. Note: Here we offer a reproduction of MK's 8/22/01 Commentary & Review to give new readers an idea of what goes on at our client-only page. The full Commentary & Review normally appears only at the restricted-access page established for Centennial's clientele, however, access is also available to prospective clients free of charge on a trial basis. Entry requires an easy one-time registration at the link above.

8/22/01

In Brief: Gold jumped sharply higher in Europe overnight as traders reacted to the latest rate cut and a weaker dollar. The euro moved to five month highs against the dollar on good results from the latest survey of business confidence in Germany. UBSWarburg reports short covering and fresh buying as driving the market overnight. The Australian Financial Review is buoyant on gold's prospects emphasizing gold's strong showings in the past when the dollar has gone into a period of decline:

The real beneficiary of the weaker US dollar was the gold market. On Friday it snapped up through $US280 an oz for the first time in three months, before closing around $US279.50 an oz. Gold and the US dollar have a close relationship. As the US dollar falls, gold rallies. As gold is traded in US dollars this inverse relationship should exist, if all else is excluded. But other factors, like central bank gold sales, interest rates and gold lease rates, do affect the gold price. Back in 1985 the US dollar triggered gold into a wild bull market. A number of traders are now hoping that 1985 will repeat itself. Then the US dollar collapsed and gold rose from $US300 an oz to $US500 an oz.

We have seen a dramatic increase in the number of inquiries at Centennial Precious Metals/USAGOLD over the past several days. Most of the callers note that they are ready to move funds out of the stock market and into gold. Stocks continue to suffer from poor earnings results, the faltering dollar and weakened economic prospects in the United States -- not to speak of the fact that the air is being let out of the greatest equities bubble in history. A growing coterie of analysts -- especially those detached from the Wall Street equity firms and banks -- are beginning to call this a primary bear market. Yesterday's one quarter point cut failed to even slow-down the building negative sentiment in the stock market. Bear markets on average in the past have lasted from 12 to 15 years. Gold during equities bear markets has been a contra cyclical alternative where the investor could safely park funds for the interim -- a salve for the badly wounded portfolio. That understanding has carried over to this bear market. Many mention that their interest is fueled by gold being so undervalued.

That's it for now. See you back here in a few days. MK

- - - - - - - -

'Tis the Season

I have written intermittently about the summer gold doldrums and the chart below generously provided by Spectrum Commodities (please see link below) clearly shows the seasonality of gold demand. September usually marks the New Year for gold and this year promises to be a good one. There are several factors contributing to the optimism building in the gold market. First, traditional Indian demand is forecasted to be strong this year due to a good harvest. India consumes roughly one-third of the annual mine gold production. Second, mainland China will launch a free market in gold based in Shanghai this year. Chinese demand has been forecasted to be the equal to Indian demand. Third, the Dubai gold market in the Persian Gulf has had a very strong year with Mid-East demand scheduled to remain high as the year progresses. Fourth, U.S. demand could continue to grow due to the weaker dollar and faltering equity markets. Fifth, European demand could edge higher as the new currency is introduced for circulation and citizens within the community exercise their perogative to go at least partially to gold as a hedge against the euro. Sixth, the gold carry trade -- the greatest drag to higher gold prices -- continues to unwind as the process of dehedging continues in the mining sector and bullion banks continue to reduce their loan positions. This could be the year that all these factors come to a head. So let me be the first to wish all the goldmeisters a Happy New Year.

Spectrum Commodities: "(High: Jan//Low: Jul or Sep) Demand is usually weakest in Northern Hemisphere summer, especially August when European jewelry manufacturers are essentially shut down. Demand is greatest going into fourth quarter, during which consumption is highest as gift-giving peaks beginning with Indian harvest and wedding festivals in autumn and carrying through US religious holidays and Chinese new year."

Our thanks to Spectrum Commodities. Reprinted with permission. No further reproduction without permission.

- - - - - - - - -

I would like to invite anyone who has an interest in gold to click the link below and register for an information packet. That way you will be sure to receive our upcoming issue of News & Views: A Quarterly Review of Forcasts, Commentary and Analsysis on the Economy and Precious Metals along with access to our client only Commentary & Review page.

Request Information

Econoclast

(08/24/2001; 12:40:40 MDT - Msg ID: 60197)

Sierra Madre #60190

They're all on the same team, partner. I wish I would've cut out the picture that I saw in "Rolling Stone" a few years ago of a 32 yr old Clinton sitting at a country club "fete" table with daddy "the VP" Bush. They "battle" for the people, then go play gold (oops-I meant golf-where is my mind?) and socialize at the same club.
It is Bush's role to be the fall guy in this next act of "The New World Order-Coming soon to a country near you".
So what, his family will still be "living like Kings" (literally) generations from now.
Has anybody else noticed that we now have a bona fide ruling class/aristocracy. The same surnames are not only filling elected offices, but hold top advisory/bureaucratic roles as 2 and even 3 generations ago.

Sierra Madre

(08/24/2001; 12:51:24 MDT - Msg ID: 60198)

John Doe...I checked out the link and found....

The PUBLIC DEBT of USA has gone from

$2.1 billion in July, 1900, to...
$5,779 billion ($5.7 trillion) at August 22, 2001.

The PUBLIC debt is thus 2,752 times larger, in numerical terms.

FWIW.- "The march of empire".

Sierra.

John Doe

(08/24/2001; 13:13:03 MDT - Msg ID: 60199)

Sierra Madre

The pigs need that corn.

fastinfo

(08/24/2001; 13:45:18 MDT - Msg ID: 60200)

Lawsuit against Nesbitt Burns Canadian Brooker

http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/pages/010526/5058004.htmlRead this

http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/pages/010526/5058004.html

nickel62

(08/24/2001; 14:37:38 MDT - Msg ID: 60201)

fastinfo thanks for the piece on Nesbitt Burns...

They were more than a little involved in the hyping of Brex X around the same time. The real disgrace is the total lack of protection for the investor in the Canadian securities markets. It is pitiful to say the least and the US SEC seems to be intent on catching up with them.

Sierra Madre

(08/24/2001; 14:44:14 MDT - Msg ID: 60202)

For Econoclast: about the New Aristocracy.

The Inverted Pyramid of Power

Our age is witnessing the creation of an inverted pyramid of power.

Tradition, through thousands of years, visualized power as a pyramid reaching to Heaven.
The King, at the apex of power, was the spiritual representative of God. His powers were not only temporal, as Father of his people, but also spiritual. He was Heaven-sent and had to obey the Mandates of Heaven (Chinese thought) (Japanese Emperor, another example)

We are living in an age of World Revolution, that began - it is very hard to say when. Perhaps it corresponds to a force that always has existed, but was held at bay in earlier times.

This World Revolution is based on overturning and inverting all values previously considered as "self-evident". Basically, much more than a re-distribution of wealth, much more than a materialist event or a political event, it is a spiritual revolution: the rejection of the idea that Authority comes from God.

Since the 1600's we have seen this rejection of Authority as coming from God, supplanted by the World Revolution as authority coming from BELOW, from the people. Actually, the people were led to believe that authority resided in their vote, but that was a joke: that counter-authority comes from far below the people, from the Hells.

That was the beginning of a satanic inversion of values, which is reaching horrendous depths in our time.

We are witnessing the creation of an inverted pyramid of power. Where the power above the King was a benevolent Almighty God, now we have Satan at the top, or I should rather say, at the lowest point of the pyramid, for it is inverted, it does not have an apex, it has a nadir, a lowest point. The rulers of today, in accordance with the occult nature of Satan, also hide their identity: who rules? Nobody knows, exactly; it's just "they", whoever they are, "the powers that be".

So now, the people are not oriented upwards to spiritual values and to seeking closeness to God. They are oriented downwards, to all hellish counter-values.

Yes, we have a "new aristocracy", but we should not call it "aristocracy", for "aristos" means "the best"; it is a "kakocracy", the rule of the worst, of the evil. They are subservient to Satan. Part of the inverted pyramid of power.

So we humans abolished Kings, and aristocrats, and Religion, and Morality, How proud we are of our achievements! We are "Free"! ("Liberty" takes its name from "Liber" the Roman God of...wine). "If drunk with Power we loose wild tongues that have not Thee in awe..." Freedom - from God.

And in place of Kings we have satanic despots, a kakocracy that wishes to serve Satan and prey upon humanity, and instead of Religion we have ...Reason, which we worship, although it leads to atrocities such as cloning human beings and breeding embryos in test-tubes for the purpose of using their organs in transplants, or such atrocities as A-bombs and worse - a nightmare world; and instead of Morality we have "if it feels good, do it".

The inverted pyramid is almost complete. Power no longer comes from Above, it comes from Below --not the people, but...the Evil One.

Gold - the King of metals - is it any wonder it has been dethroned and is violently hated? And it will continue to be hated, until it is all accumulated by the kakocracy and we are enslaved to them, servants of Satan.

I had to say it. These are The Signs of the Times. And yet, I believe that at the moment of the triumph of evil, good will be reinstated, from Above.

Sierra

Cavan Man

(08/24/2001; 14:50:55 MDT - Msg ID: 60203)

Sierra Madre

Thanks for the earlier link. Enjoy your thoughts...CM

Netking

(08/24/2001; 15:01:03 MDT - Msg ID: 60204)

"No more restraint" (against Palestinians): Israeli Defense minister

http://asia.dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/world/article.html?s=asia/headlines/010825/world/afp/_No_more_restraint__against_Palestinians__Israeli_Defense_minister.htmlIrsael's incursion into the autonomous West Bank city of Hebron means Israel "is no longer inclined to show restraint" against the Palestinians, Defense Minister Binyamin Ben Eliezer said Friday . . .

Rockgrabber

(08/24/2001; 15:23:13 MDT - Msg ID: 60205)

Netking: Noahs Ark

http://www.realityzone.com/ They have already found it. Its 17 miles from Mount Arafat. A Sheep farmer found it years back. Was revealed to a researcher (David Fasault) who went to discover some amazing mathematical calculations, to dicipher the shape of the ark. Of course nothing like what your any book shows a picture of. An amazing propulsion system, cleaning system, living system, truly man could never have came up with this ark.

If you go to the link, click *hole catalog*, then scroll down to *Discovery of Noahs Ark* that video says it all. You should order it. Its a site by Edward G. Griffin. Has some great stuff on the scams of banking and finance (books) too.

nickel62

(08/24/2001; 15:27:52 MDT - Msg ID: 60206)

Hathaway's piece should be circulated to your more interested friends..

Gold As Theater
At precisely 1:57 p.m. on May 23rd, 2001, a seller dumped 100 contracts (10,000 ounces) of gold on the Comex market. The transaction
was noteworthy as to the amount and timing. It was the largest transaction by far that day and for several weeks on the Comex where
trading activity has dwindled to the lowest levels in two decades. More important, it took place 15 minutes in advance of the announcement
by the Federal Reserve that the discount rate would be reduced by only 25 basis points instead of the 50 that had been widely speculated
(see chart). Gold, which had been rallying strongly since the stock market lows at the end of the first quarter on the view that the Federal
Reserve's concern over the economy's slide was reaching panic proportions, slumped during the remainder of the day. In a few more days,
it settled at $265/oz, down sharply from the intra day peak of nearly $300 reached on May 21st, a few days before the Fed action.

The above chart is a minute by minute account of Comex gold trading going into the Fed announcement at 2:15 (14:15). On the lower part
of the chart, volume for each trade is graphed. The trade in question took place just before 2:00 pm (14:00), and initiated the breakdown of
gold.

The seller, whoever it was, seemed to be acting on the conviction of advance knowledge. For anyone willing to spend the time, more about
the identity of the seller could be learned by examining the public records of the Comex for that day's trading. I'd love to know, but don't
have the time to go to the warehouse and pore through trade records. Whether it was the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) of the
Treasury or a bullion dealer with a hot line to the Fed Conference room is of secondary importance. If it were a bullion dealer for its own
account, the profits on the trade would hardly pay the rent. If it were a bullion dealer for the account of a third party such as the ESF, we
may never know. What is more interesting is the apparent use of gold to convey a message to the markets: Gold tanks!� The Fed has
everything under control�concerns reflected in the previous gold rally have been allayed. Gold remains a highly visible barometer of the
well being of financial markets, despite concerted efforts by central banks to demote its standing as a financial asset.

In a private meeting in June 1993, the late Sir Jimmy Goldsmith asked me whether I thought his bullish stance on gold at the time was
correct. Yes, I answered. We agreed that paper currencies were suspect and that the rising gold price signaled legitimate concerns. He
responded with a question: "But what happens if the authorities try to squash the signal?" In retrospect, this was not only an excellent
question, but quite possibly foreshadowed what has been going on in the gold market since then.

The trade on May 21st illustrates how a well-timed minor action in a very thin market, can turn the tide. It is only a skirmish in a very big
picture. By itself, it proves nothing, but it does suggest something. Government intervention in financial markets is neither surprising nor
new. Gold is a financial asset. Official denials notwithstanding, respected and knowledgeable observers including Jack Kemp and
Professor Robert Mundell appear to regard it as a matter of fact.

On August 21st, the date of the most recent Fed rate cut, a similar pattern could be observed. This time, Goldman Sachs appeared as a
featured seller in the midday hours prior to the announcement. Of the 24,000 contracts traded that day, Goldman accounted for 10,000. A
Comex floor trader told me, the following day, that there had been a very large drawdown of Comex warehouse stocks of 45,000+ ounces,
the same day as the Fed announcement. The drawdown amounted to more than 5% and left the ratio of warehouse stocks to open interest
at a dangerously low 6% (ratio of physical to outstanding contracts), normally a good precursor for a short squeeze. However, the trader
continued, in recent years it has not been profitable to anticipate a short squeeze under these circumstances. "Metal just comes back into
the market mysteriously", he said. On the day of this particular conversation (8/22), "every dealer is selling, including Republic, Goldman
Sachs, AIG, and JP Morgan-Chase. Action like today is what scares people away from the gold market. The dollar is getting crushed, a
short squeeze should be happening, and gold does nothing."

The price of gold in perpetual checkmate became a central motif in the mythology of the new economic paradigm. The imagery played a
role in facilitating the investment bubble that ended over a year ago. The evolution of the financial markets has diminished the role and
effectiveness of traditional monetary policy. The Fed no longer controls the monetary aggregates and now only has a direct influence on
interest rates. Tinkering with the gold price would be a very tempting way to reinforce the strong dollar rhetoric. It would be simply
shocking, even inconceivable if no high level official had ever considered the idea. A low or declining gold price would soothe financial
markets and, conversely, a rapidly rising price would roil them. The price behavior of gold is a simple sound byte able to penetrate the
increasingly confusing overload of electronic inputs and media circus confronting traders and investors. It is a much more efficient way to
communicate a state of being than the inscrutable or indecipherable pronouncements of various economic policy spokesmen, especially
for grass roots consumption. The behavior of gold, notwithstanding repeated attempts to write it out of the script, still affects market and
consumer psychology.

Legions comforted by the somnolence of the gold price assume that such behavior is the result of a free market process. The history of
government intervention in currency markets alone would strongly suggest otherwise. The precedent of the London Gold Pool, a scheme
orchestrated by the US and Britain to rig the gold price in the 1960's, exemplifies the keen interest of our government in the matter. For
these reasons alone, believers in whatever low gold prices are signaling should suspect a fairy tale.

Given the long history of official sector antipathy to gold, especially in the US and the UK, one would be hard pressed to explain why it had
suddenly become sacrosanct. In fact, there is growing body of credible evidence that the US government and others may have been
manipulating the metal price for some time. A few years ago, such claims were unsubstantiated and lacked credibility, but recently some
weighty evidence is beginning to accumulate. Credit for the heavy lifting on discovery of possible price fixing activity goes to Bill Murphy,
Reginald Howe, James Turk and their associates. A useful source to learn more are the two Gold Antitrust Action Committee web sites:
(www.lemetropolecafe.com) or (www.gata.org).

The Exchange Stabilization Fund controlled by the US Treasury, and essentially unaccountable to Congress or the American people,
appears to be a key instrument for intervention. It appears that US gold reserves have been swapped or in some way encumbered. The
basis for this supposition can be found in the ESF financial statements themselves. According to James Turk in his Freemarket Gold &
Money Report (www.fgmr.com) dated August 13th, 2001, SDR Certificates held by the ESF declined from a peak level of 10.2 billion to 2.2
billion as of year end 2000. A precipitous decline from 9.2 billion as of year-end 1998 to current levels coincided with an accelerated
decline in the gold price that began in May 1999 (announcement of UK Gold Auction) and the breakout of the trade weighted dollar index
from a multiyear trading range. Each SDR represents 1/35th/oz of gold held by the Treasury as monetary reserves for the United States.
What is going on here? Mr. Turk's very erudite but complex explanation of the mechanics is available on his web page. A decline equating
to 227.7 million ounces, or 87% of the US gold reserve demands a more than perfunctory explanation.

Reg Howe (www.goldensextant.com/commentary18.html) has turned up a number of curious efforts to reclassify various portions of the
gold reserve. These reclassification attempts have occurred only since Mr. Turk noticed that some of the gold held on deposit at West
Point had been reclassified as custodial gold from gold bullion reserve as of 9/30/00. This designation stood until July 2, 2001 when the
West Point gold along with 92% of US gold reserves or 245 million ounces was again reclassified, this time as "Deep Storage Gold",
peculiar to say the least. There has been no high level official response to these points or many others made by Howe, Turk, or GATA.
There are only a few desultory low level denials including an almost generic e-mail denial on the Treasury's web site
(www.treas.gov/opc/opc0007.html#gold%20markets).

If the US and other governments have been actively involved in manipulating the gold market, there is far greater upside potential for the
gold price than I had previously imagined. The US government may have already expended considerable resources to hold the gold price in
check. Public, press and congressional scrutiny of these matters should commence in earnest. It would have five possible outcomes: (1)
there is no monkey business at all and the government provides the requisite information to satisfy all legitimate questions on the subject,
(2) there has been active intervention but because of public scrutiny and accountability, carrying on will be much more difficult, (3)
resources for future intervention have been severely depleted, (4) because of a combination of #2 and #3, government activity in the gold
market ceases altogether, (5) there is something going on but the government is able to deflect and otherwise thwart all attempts to
illuminate the facts. The investment implication of #1 is simply a non-event. The implications of #'s 2, 3, and 4 are very bullish. Only #5
would be somewhat problematic, as it would prolong the status quo.

On his Golden Sextant web site (www.goldensextant.com), Reg Howe has unearthed an article co-authored by Lawrence Summers, former
Treasury Secretary and current President of Harvard University. The article, "Gibson's Paradox and the Gold Standard" was published in
June 1988 in the Journal of Political Economy. In this article, the two Professors observe that in a "truly free market�gold prices will move
inversely to real long-term rates, falling when rates rise and rising when they fall." Most interesting is the failure of this relationship to
persist post 1995 during Summers� tenure at the Treasury. "During this period, as real rates (30 year T-bond less CPI rate) have declined
from the 4% level to near 2%, gold prices have fallen from $400/oz. to around $270 rather than rising toward the $500 level as Gibson's
paradox and the model of it constructed by Barsky and Summers indicates they should have." Howe goes on to observe "the low real
long-term interest rates of the past few years may have been engineered with far more sophistication than those of a generation ago,
including the coordinated and heavy use of both gold and interest rate derivatives."

This chart is courtesy of Nick Laird, proprietor of www.sharelynx.net. It plots average monthly gold prices inverted on the right scale and
real long-term interest rates (30-year t-bond minus latest twelve month CPI) on the left scale. The historical relationship disintegrates in
1995.

The mispricing of any commodity leads to a shortage or a surplus depending on whether it has been overpriced or underpriced relative to
its clearing price in a free market. Investment capital is no less a commodity than soybeans, milk, or natural gas. The systematic
underpricing of investment capital achieved by:

o the manipulation of the gold price,

o the debasement of inflation measuring statistics issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics*,

o the shrinkage of supply of 30 year treasuries,

o and the use of derivative instruments

would indeed be a "sophisticated" scheme. The contributions of the most brilliant academic minds of the day would perfectly suit the
needs of an administration addicted to

*Much about this has been written including Grant's Interest Rate Observer and the Richebacher Letter spin and manipulation to achieve
its goals. Academicians and politicians indifferent to the distinctions between substance and artifice, and with a shared disregard for free
market forces, would be easily drawn into a complicated price manipulation scheme if it were deemed to be "in the public interest".
Underpricing investment capital played a key role in creating the financial mania that explains willingness of investors to finance the dot
com craze, telecom infrastructure companies with only a business plan, and other harebrained schemes too numerous to mention.

The underpricing of investment capital occurred in the context of Greenspan's repeated willingness to commit sovereign credit throughout
the market crises of the late 1980's and the entire decade of the 1990's. Since the Latin American Crises of the early 1980's, the Federal
Reserve's response to anyone who had made a bad investment was a massive bailout. The 1987 market crash, the banking crisis of the
late 1980's and early 1990's, Long Term Capital Management, and the Asia Meltdown all drew the same response---a flood of liquidity and
low interest rates. By sending the message that big mistakes would bear no adverse consequences, the Federal Reserve engineered a
tectonic shift in the risk profile of investors, speculators, and financial institutions in favor of ever more leverage. It is the proliferation of
leverage which has rendered the economic system intolerant of the kind of old fashioned recession that would cleanse the excesses of the
previous cycle and place the economy on a sound footing for renewed expansion.

Those jeopardized by the Fed's bailout strategy and the Clinton Treasury's flood of underpriced investment capital extend well beyond
lenders to bankrupt hedge funds, sinking foreign economies, or bad banks. The American public, having been suckered into pouring its life
savings into a dangerously overvalued stock market, is now being called upon to maintain its unhealthy spending patterns to keep the
economy from sinking further. The Fed is targeting equity prices in order to prop up the wealth effect, quite an evolution from its original role
of preserving the purchasing power of money. In his May 24th, 2001 speech before the Economic Club of New York, Alan Greenspan said:
"Owing to the variable and long lags of monetary policy, the effect of our recent policy initiatives will take time to strengthen financial
portfolios and spill over into demand for goods and services." The game plan is clear -- reflate the stock market bubble. Money supply
(M-2) is growing at 9.2% year over year, the fastest pace since 1987, the year of the October stock market crash.

Public policy has been painted into a corner by the misdeeds of economic and political leaders held in the highest esteem during the
preceeding mania. There are no choices left but to open the floodgates once again. Prepare for more policy panic. The neat trick will be
inflating stock prices in the face of deteriorating fundamentals. The investment mania in technology and telecom has created sufficient
overcapacity to last many years. It also sparked a boom in consumer goods that will take years to unwind as individuals struggle with
record indebtedness.

It will not be long before widespread recriminations and finger pointing become a favorite media blood sport. As the malpractice of
economic policy and misdeeds of the financial community come to light, investors will rightfully begin to distrust the half-truths,
misconceptions, gurus, and institutions at the core of the mania. They will gradually discard the idea that the Fed or the Administration
can "fix" any problem and that buying the dips is savvy. Greenspan, the "price fixer and central planner", will replace Greenspan, the
"Maestro", in the estimation of public opinion. As James Grant wrote back in April (NY Times Op-Ed 4/20/01), "How does he do what he
does? Nobody knows. It is a mystery. He collects data and ponders them. He conceives a course of action. This action takes the form of a
double manipulation, first of an interest rate and second of the mind of the market� This is a mighty tall order. In fact, it is reminiscent of
the task that the economic planning agencies of the former Soviet Union were famously unable to carry out."

Unfortunately, Clinton's wild party has become Bush's hangover. The equity markets are completing the first year of a bear market. Rallies
of course will interrupt the decline, but will reach a string of lower highs. The process has much further to go. Bull markets are born in
skepticism and die in overconfidence. The prevailing views on gold are, if anything, skeptical. It has been said that in bull markets investors
are more scared than is justified and in bear markets, they are not as scared as they should be. We have traveled only a short distance
along the way to public disaffection with financial assets.

Instead of clinging to the mantras and rhetoric of the previous decade, economic policy makers should declare a clean break with past
practice. Secretary O�Neill should be familiar with the time honored private sector practice of taking huge writedowns to lower the bar for
the next regime. This would include permitting gold to trade freely. Gold, which has been viewed as a problem and a threat to public policy,
can still be used as theater but in a positive sense. As the world economy continues to globalize, there is no reason that the dollar or the
euro should be called upon to perform the role to which they now aspire, that of a reserve currency beyond national borders. As an
apolitical financial asset, gold represents the superior foundation for a new currency to facilitate the expansion of borderless commerce.

The late 1990's mania stretched well beyond tech stocks, dot coms, media and telecom. It included the unprecedented and exuberant
accumulation of physical goods by American consumer ranging from SUV's to MacMansions, made possible by the overvaluation of the
US dollar. The willingness of foreigners to exchange their goods and services for our IOU's made every American consumer wealthy by
comparison to any other time in history. We had low inflation because foreign capacity became a substitute for home grown capacity.
Artificially low long term interest rates helped consumers to spend more than they saved simply by enabling them to issue record amounts
of mortgage debt. Government agency housing debt is now $2.4 trillion or 23% of GDP. At current growth rates, it will exceed national debt
in four years. It has reached a level, according to the American Enterprise Institute, that threatens systemic risk to the financial markets
and the US Economy.

The so-called globalization of the world economy was in one respect a massive exchange of US paper assets for non-domestic resources
that enabled US consumers/voters to dramatically improve their living standards during the 1990's. Foreigners now hold on a net basis $2
trillion of US assets, or 20% of GDP. They own 44% of the liquid treasury market, 23% of the US corporate bond market, and 12% of the
US equity market. Nobody can say that the Clinton/Rubin/Summers strong dollar scheme didn't work, at least for a while. However, it
could only work on the belief that the paper issued represented real value. For this to be the case, foreigners had to buy into the rhetoric
and mythology promoted over the period. A reassessment of these beliefs will bring about high inflation and high interest rates. The
alternative to the virtuous circle is not pleasant to contemplate, but the long running current account deficit that now exceeds 4% of GDP is
unsustainable. Foreign investors have every reason to ask "where's the beef?" A bear market in stocks, declining interest rates and
vanishing profits all qualify as "less than expected." When the dollar loses its lofty status, American consumers and voters will no longer
be happy or confident. This will have political and financial market repercussions.

The case for gold is that the dollar has been overvalued for an extended period, as we wrote a year ago in The US Dollar: Over Owned and
Over Valued. Its overvaluation was integral to the financial mania that has come and gone. The depressed price of gold has been core to
the system of beliefs underpinning dollar overvaluation. To the extent the depressed price of gold reflected more than natural causes, one
can expect the retribution of market forces to be fierce once they gain the upper hand. The mania and the supremacy of the dollar are
history. With so many of these positive macroeconomic developments becoming more evident, it is disappointing that the gold producers
continue to emphasize the promotion of gold as jewelry. A higher profile and stronger stance on monetary issues would be timely and
most welcome. It would not take much of an investment to bolster the intellectual rationale to rehabilitate the metal's role as a financial
asset. Restoration of gold as the foundation for a multinational global currency is something the global economy could actually use. Now,
that would be really good theater.

John Hathaway

August 2

PH in LA

(08/24/2001; 16:14:44 MDT - Msg ID: 60207)

Was this actually written by Nostradamus?

"Come the millennium, month twelve,
In the home of greatest power,
The village idiot will come forth
To be acclaimed the leader."
-Nostradamus, 1555

Do any Nostradamus scholars recognize this quatrain?

Leigh

(08/24/2001; 16:58:46 MDT - Msg ID: 60208)

PH in LA

PH, Gore did come forth and tried to get proclaimed, but fortunately wiser heads prevailed.

(08/24/2001; 17:02:15 MDT - Msg ID: 60209)

HBM - I miss reading your comments and observations.

HBM - I miss reading your comments and observations.
I hope and pray you are well.

Black Blade

(08/24/2001; 18:02:29 MDT - Msg ID: 60210)

Forbes Body Count

http://www.forbes.com/2001/01/30/layoffs.html
The "Bones" are piling up as more pink slips are handed out. This will continue for the foreseeable future. The fundamentals are still "Grim" at best. Soon, many of those cast upon the "Bone Pile" will have to draw out funds from investments and retirement plans. The markets will suffer more even as withdrawals from mutual funds increase. The Recession will get much worse.

Black Blade

(08/24/2001; 18:16:31 MDT - Msg ID: 60211)

Argentines Face Renewed Sacrifice

http://www.iht.com/articles/30330.htm
Snippit:

Voters and Opposition Grumble at Implications of IMF Rescue

BUENOS AIRES The government has told a weary Argentine population that deeper cuts in government spending and more economic sacrifice are in the offing, despite an $8 billion emergency rescue agreement it signed with the International Monetary Fund. With unemployment surging, currency reserves dropping, tax revenue plummeting and credit virtually impossible to obtain, that was not the news Argentines hoped to hear after the government spent nearly two weeks in negotiations with the IMF before arriving at a deal Tuesday. Furthermore, the forecast of more severe austerity was accompanied by the assessment that this is, as one local newspaper put it Wednesday morning, the country's "last chance."

Analysts were also heartened Wednesday by indications that the Bush administration, which previously fought any involvement in the crisis here, appears to have reluctantly decided that Argentina must be saved. Or as the daily Pagina 12 put it in an editorial, "The government has used the United States' fear of a chain reaction in emerging markets to acquire the only thing it can buy in the market today: time."

Black Blade: No one really expected anything less.

Black Blade

(08/24/2001; 18:28:15 MDT - Msg ID: 60212)

Bankruptcies Rise to Record Number

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010824/business_financial_bankruptcies_dc_3.html
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Strapped by the slumping economy and spooked by a looming change in the law, Americans filed for bankruptcy in record numbers in the second quarter of2001, according to data released on Friday. The Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts said personal and business bankruptcies totaled 400,394 between April and June, a 9 percent increase over the first quarter and an almost 25 percent jump from the same period last year.

Experts have been predicting bankruptcies will be on the upswing this year as the U.S. economic slowdown puts the bite on consumers and companies alike. Bankruptcy filings last peaked at 373,460 in the second quarter of 1998. But the scale of the surge still left many slightly breathless. ``It's borderline shocking, actually,'' said Sam Gerdano, executive director of the Alexandria, Virginia-based American Bankruptcy Institute.

Personal bankruptcy filings totaled 390,064 in the second quarter, up a full 24.8 percent from the 312,486 recorded in the same quarter of last year. Business bankruptcies rose a more modest, but still hefty, 11.8 percent to 10,330.

BINGE AND PURGE

Buoyed by the longest economic expansion in U.S. history, consumers binged on debt over the last decade, and are now facing the consequences as the boom wanes, Gerdano said. ``We're in the purge phase now,'' he said. ``The bill is coming due, and it's coming due at the same time that we've had half a million people lose their jobs.''

Black Blade: As the "Bone Pile" grows, so does the number of bankruptcies. This will also continue to grow at a record setting pace. As many wallow in the throes of the Recession, more and more will raid their retirement funds to survive while at the same time putting more pressure on the stock markets as mutual fund managers must sell equities to meet growing redemptions. It is going to get Very Ugly. Remember it was an energy crisis that triggered this as usual. Those that have hard assets (such as gold) free and clear will do much better.

Black Blade

(08/24/2001; 18:33:22 MDT - Msg ID: 60213)

Hughes to cut jobs by 10 pct, to take Q3 charge

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010824/n24126189.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK, Aug 24 (Reuters) - Satellite television company Hughes Electronics Corp. (NYSE:GMH) said on Friday that the job cuts announced by its DirecTV unit would be expanded to include as much as 10 percent of Hughes' U.S. workforce, citing the need to cut costs against the backdrop of a softening economy. The General Motors Corp.-owned (NYSE:GM) said it would take an unspecified third quarter charge from those workforce reductions, which would total as much as nearly 800 jobs of its 7,900 jobs in the United States.

Black Blade: More gory details - strip away the flesh, and then heap the "Bones" upon the "Bone Pile."

PH in LA

(08/24/2001; 19:14:14 MDT - Msg ID: 60214)

Leigh:

Of course, trying to be proclaimed is not the same as being proclaimed. BTW, you are the first I ever heard compare him to a village idiot, although just about everybody says that about Bush. In face, just the other day someone published the IQs of past presidents and Dubya was right on the bottom of the list. (It only took him until the age of 40 to figure out that there is more to life than drinking!)

Black Blade

(08/24/2001; 19:29:48 MDT - Msg ID: 60215)

RE: PH in LA

You could be right. Al Gore invented the internet. Then again, Bill Clinton doesn't know the meaning of "is."

However, I am of the opinion that most politicians are "idiots" like the majority of North Americans. Evolutionists may or may not be correct - man may not have evolved from the monkey, but man sure spends much time proving that he is one. Politicians are living proof. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Leigh

(08/24/2001; 20:01:19 MDT - Msg ID: 60216)

PH in LA

PH, don't trust everything you read on the Internet! I read that IQ list too. Urban myth, I would say.

The Bible says, "The fear of the Lord is the beginning of wisdom; and the knowledge of the holy is understanding." Anything else is just a cheap cleverness, a luck of the draw. You have only to look at Hillary to see that a high IQ doesn't guarantee deep wisdom or fine moral character.

John Doe

(08/24/2001; 20:15:57 MDT - Msg ID: 60217)

HC - Gold!, part 4

Did you catch all that?

THE US INVENTED PAPER MONEY -- "as revolutionary an idea as America itself!" (The innuendo being gold was not adequate to the monetary task at hand, but revolutionary, American inventiveness solved the problem).

They conveniently left out the fact that the circulating Greenback system was non-interest bearing, unlike the current FRS. In other words, the banks were out of the loop (and that's why Lincoln was assassinated and the Greenback system was killed, asap). This, they characterized as the undesirable "fiat" system, no mention of the FRS being worse.

The "world" wanted to wean itself off gold because it wasn't "controllable."

Gold caused the depression, not the FRS establishment and expansion leading up to it. Killing the US gold standard ended the Depressionary bank run.

Hitler's desire for negligible amounts of conquered national gold is the cause of WWII. Gold equals Nazism. No mention of ideology, eugenics, "living space", art theft, socialism, nationalism, or rampant genocide. Hitler just $580 million in gold.

Marshall plan never happened, bombed-out Europe forced to trade its gold for $US, "the world's strongest currency." Evil Europe steals US gold in the 1970s, heroic Nixon completes work heroic FDR started.

Money is now (and should be) a "unit of information" and never was a good a unit of measure. (Let's go earn some "units of information" and trade them for some units of energy or units of houses, shall we)? Gold is now worthless to the banks -- just a commodity, a "stack of tires". Backwards third-world countries are still too stupid to have good paper money (or $US). Their paper money is bad and are therefore forced to use gold.

Unbelievable. Worse than useless. Shame, shame on The History Channel. A few well-placed lies in a flood of semi-historical fact and, apparently, "mission accomplished.��

As I said before, disjointed and confused. The four parts had no continuity whatsoever. The fourth part stops abruptly as soon as all the major lies have been spewed out. The propaganda just kept getting stronger and stronger as the end of section four reached its "conclusion".

See/learn the technique here. You make a four-hour investment in "learning all about gold", three and a half hours of which are fluff. Then, right at the end they insert the bulk of the lies. But since you've already sat through all this garbage, your "investment" will be wasted if you don't apply the same level of cognitive acceptance to the whole thing. Well, I guess that explains the time-hopping and ill-structured presentation. This is no accident. This is good work, very good work.

Cavan Man

(08/24/2001; 20:32:31 MDT - Msg ID: 60218)

PH in LA

PH, You wouldn't be Paul Harvey would you? If not, you must be an old saw with a lot of teeth.

I agree with Black Blade. With that kind of attitude you can change the world (if you could). Best....CM

Shermag

(08/24/2001; 20:35:34 MDT - Msg ID: 60219)

Looks like Sierra was on the mark

Did not see any of the Gold series on the History channel, but by the looks of John Doe's compilation of the last segment, Sierra Madre was quite correct in his predictions about gold being presented in a not so favorable light.

slingshot

(08/24/2001; 21:02:44 MDT - Msg ID: 60220)

Gold Series

I did not watch the series either. Instead I read the comments posted. The only thing gained by presenting gold in
an unfavorable light is TIME. I believe the transition from stocks to gold to preserve wealth has been going on for some time. The Talking Heads prevail because Joe Sixpack loves having it fed to him. More now than ever when discussion about the stock market is ended with the words,"I'm in it for the long haul". Well, this goldbug is in it for the long haul. Let them bad mouth Gold. When unemployment and bankruptcy claims become intolerable to an already skittish populace,then the turn to gold by those capable of wealth preservation will begin.Then LOOK OUT! GOT GOLD?
Slingshot

R Powell

(08/24/2001; 21:06:48 MDT - Msg ID: 60221)

Good press

We've noted a great deal of mainstream news on gold recently and some attention paid by the peoples' stock market television channel. GATA is always present and appears to be gaining credibility with those who used to equate godbugs with lunatics.
Now I'm also seeing a reversal of opinion among commodity trader advisers. My weekly magazine featured bullish optimism from Commodity Central Inc., Commodity Review and Outlook, Merrill Lynch & Co., and The Yamamoto Forecast. The only negative report was given by The Windy City Trader and this was basically neutral.
The main reasons given for positive outlooks are from chart patterns that appear to be forming a base (technical analysis) and from the idea that the dollar's strength has peaked, especially against the Euro.
I find more information and good insight here than from most commodity advisers but I believe that the "commodity mainstream press" joining with the other newswire print and bubblevision coverage is a good omen for gold and silver. Remember, the average invester knows little about where his money is invested and many advisers know only slightly more (IMHO). Momentum and irrational exuberance investing will move any market, press coverage helps, no?
Rich

slingshot

(08/24/2001; 21:14:39 MDT - Msg ID: 60222)

Gold ,Investment

PHYSICAL GOLD. YOU ALWAYS KNOW WHERE YOUR INVESTMENT IS!

Slingshot

darkhorse

(08/24/2001; 21:54:16 MDT - Msg ID: 60223)

PH in LA, your 16:44 (if nobody has responded to it yet)

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/post.htmlI think this should answer your question....

darkhorse

(08/24/2001; 22:26:39 MDT - Msg ID: 60224)

oops, wrong site....

http://www.dreamscape.com/morgana/election.htmsorry....

BR549

(08/24/2001; 23:02:46 MDT - Msg ID: 60225)

HC Gold

Sierra�
T
he HC Gold series had merit up until the last. The areas of interest for us goldbugs was unfortunately compressed at the end with a slant towards paper and away from value-based currencies.

For others to say that the first three episodes were without merit or that gold was presented in a not so favorable light in my opinion is like saying that one can enjoy a movie and then hate the ending.

This is THE HISTORY CHANNEL and the history of gold from the first gold and silver coins up until the Banksters began their manipulations was informative and the gold was beautiful. The first gold coins, their involvement in nations for 2,500 years, King Tut's Treasures, The Roman's, Constantinople, and THE LACK OF CRITICISM HERE ON THE SITE OF THE GOLD SERIES UP UNTIL TONIGHT�S EPISODE, makes my point.

I am glad I watched the entire series because I learned something.

I am going to admit that I wish I had not watched the last twenty minutes tonight as I think that Sierra was correct---that the media bias did indeed rear its ugly head.

I hated the ending.

BR549

(08/24/2001; 23:39:45 MDT - Msg ID: 60226)

HC once again for the Doe

John Doe (msg#: 60217)

Doe-"THE US INVENTED PAPER MONEY"��.

Did not the US invent paper currency? The HC innuendo was not as you surmised but that corrupt banksters began printing and issuing paper against their bankster gold reserves similar to what the Fed did against national reserves prior to the reign of the worst President of all times-FDR.

The history lesson is that banksters corruptly issued more paper than was backed by Gold. Again, a modern history lesson which the HC pointed out.

Doe-" They conveniently left out the fact that the circulating Greenback system was non-interest bearing, unlike the current FRS. In other words, the banks were out of the loop (and that's why Lincoln was assassinated and the Greenback system was killed, asap)."

What channel have you been watching? Is the current FRN interest bearing? I think not. As to Lincoln's assassination�absurd. No history lesson here.

Doe-" The "world" wanted to wean itself off gold because it wasn't "controllable."

Wasn't it that the evil banksters, similar to the present one's, wanted to manipulate for their well being at the expense of the average citizens? Bank runs and economic ruin resulted. Isn't there a history lesson for modern times here also?

Doe-" Money is now (and should be) a "unit of information" and never was a good a unit of measure. (Let's go earn some "units of information" and trade them for some units of energy or units of houses, shall we)?"

Maybe this is tongue and cheek. I am sure that it is, unless this is some more of that Conceptual eClownomics that is well represented by our Neighbors ATR?

There was not a single item in four hours of documentary that you liked? It was all fluff and then lies? I notice that all of your critical comments were gleaned from the last half of the last episode. A coincidence?

One last comment-If the History Channel had presented your ideas in place of tonight's commentary, then I would have even more disgusted with HC's last episode.

Regards from Cornfield County

Netking

(08/25/2001; 00:16:04 MDT - Msg ID: 60227)

PH in LA / Dark Horse

George is OK, I like this one of Nostradamus's better on Au & Ag.

Nostradamus - Quatrain C8Q28

The copies of gold and silver inflated,
which after the theft were thrown into the lake,
at the discovery that all is exhausted and dissipated by the debt.
All scrips and bonds will be wiped out.
--------------------------------------------------------
Sounds like the paper shorts get burnt huh! - NetkingView Yesterday's Discussion.

John Doe

(08/25/2001; 01:09:00 MDT - Msg ID: 60228)

BR549

[Did not the US invent paper currency?]

No, I believe China did issued unbacked paper money, much, much earlier.

[Is the current FRN interest bearing?]

I said FRS - Federal Reserve System. We all know the FRN pays no interest directly (even though it's a "note", neat trick huh?). One way or another, all the money is created at interest via the banking/government cartel (except gold, silver, and platinum eagles, but then the .gov borrows or takes taxes to buy these metals too, so in a way, even these are created at interest).

[As to Lincoln's assassination�absurd. No history lesson here.]

Right and Booth was just another gun-toting nut. Please read the London Times at the time of the Greenback issuance and note their description of the calamity a sovereign-issue, non-interest-bearing, non-bank circulating medium of exchange would be to the emergent world banking system. What's the fun in that?

[Maybe this is tongue and cheek?]

A close paraphrase of their own words (not the houses/energy quip, that's mine).

[It was all fluff and then lies?]

No, mostly fluff, an interesting fact or two, then misrepresentation, then more fluff, then a lie, then less fluff, then more lies, then mostly lies. Though, in a back-handed way, they did say gold is money right at the end - IN THE THIRD WORLD.

[I notice that all of your critical comments were gleaned from the last half of the last episode. A coincidence?]

What are you implying, that I've reviewed this without watching it? Tch, tch, such etiquette, and on this fine forum, no less.

[One last comment-If the History Channel had presented your ideas in place of tonight's commentary, then I would have even more disgusted with HC's last episode. ]

Great, I've gotten through to you. :o)

NB, as one should not criticize in advance, neither should one shower praise in advance, either -- risky business, that. Good night, good sir BR549.

Black Blade

(08/25/2001; 01:51:36 MDT - Msg ID: 60229)

U.S. oil prices rise on refinery troubles

http://finance.individual.com/display_news.asp?doc_id=RTH24a4867reuff&page=news
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. oil prices chalked up a second day of gains on Friday, as a slew of refinery problems pushed gasoline prices to their highest level in two months. Prices charged higher as traders took stock of a series of recent upsets at U.S. refineries which have already sent pump prices hurtling up in the Midwest region.

Prices have rallied hard since Citgo said it expects a fire-damaged 160,000 barrel per day crude unit at its Lemont, Illinois, refinery to be out of service for six months following a shutdown Aug. 14. The Lemont plant's outage has sparked fuel supply concerns in the Midwest, a region already suffering from low inventories of gasoline and agricultural diesel ahead of the autumn harvest.

Black Blade: Maintenance season is about to begin ahead of the switch over to reformulated blends of boutique fuels. Higher fuel prices are about to hit the Midwest as fuel standards from other regions vary and refinery capacity is severely limited. There are 97 reformulated fuels that are refined to local standards, so help from other regions are not of any help to the Midwest region. BTW, a million bbl/day OPEC oil production cut is about to begin as well.

nickel62

(08/25/2001; 04:10:52 MDT - Msg ID: 60230)

John Doe I agree with your assessment exactly...

It was a spin job. I try and caution myself against seeing a conspiracy motive behind everything, but watching the entire four hours left me with exactly the same sentiment as you expressed. It is scary to think that much of what are children are taught in public or private school is equally as slanted. Good work with your summary.

nickel62

(08/25/2001; 04:16:10 MDT - Msg ID: 60231)

John Doe, Could you please elaborate about the green back policy of Lincoln..

I was not aware of the particulars of the green back issue of Lincoln. You mentioned it in your prior post:

"Please read the London Times at the time of the Greenback issuance and note their description of the calamity a sovereign-issue, non-interest-bearing, non-bank circulating medium of exchange would be to the emergent world banking system. What's the fun in that?"

Was there a fundamental difference between the green backs issued during the Cival War and the current system. And if so please explain for us less well informed listeners. Thanks.

BR549

(08/25/2001; 07:51:24 MDT - Msg ID: 60232)

HC GOLD!!!

Gold Rush
Gold fever
California
South Africa
James Marshall
48�ers
Leadville
Chamber of Mines
Gold wars
Indians
Pizarro
Coronado
Philip II
Mesmerized
Columbus
Brazil speaks Portuguese
South America Speaks Spanish
Catholic church and gold
Conquistadors
Antahualpa
Black Hills gold
Boer War
Incan Empire
Gold as universal currency
2,500 years of gold as currency
Trade & barter
Numismatist
First gold coins minted by?
Roman Empire's use of gold
Congressional fiat
History of gold coins
Origin of Money
High tech Treasure Hunts
King Tut
Mother lode
Ark of the Covenant
Copper Scroll significance
King Solomon's mines
El Dorado
Superstition Mountain
Curse of King Tut
Much, Much, Much more

Vilify
Lies
Fluff
Spin job
Glass half empty

BR549

(08/25/2001; 08:17:22 MDT - Msg ID: 60233)

Conspiracy Theories & Lincoln's Assassination FWIW

http://home.att.net/~rjnorton/Lincoln74.html"This theory is that Abraham Lincoln was killed as a result of his monetary policies. John Wilkes Booth would be seen as a 'hired gun.' In its simplest terms, the theory is that Lincoln needed money to finance the Civil War. He was offered loans at high interest rates by bankers in Europe led by the Rothschilds. Rather than accept the loans, Lincoln found other means to fund the war effort. More importantly, the British bankers opposed Lincoln's protectionist policies. Some Englishmen in the 1860's believed that "British free trade, industrial monopoly and human slavery travel together." Lincoln's policies after the Civil War would have destroyed the Rothschilds' commodity speculations. After the war, Lincoln planned a mild Reconstruction policy which would have enabled a resumption of agriculture production. The Rothschilds were betting the other way on high prices caused by a tough Reconstruction policy toward the South. Lincoln was viewed as a threat to the established order of things, and he was assassinated as a result. The goal was to weaken the United States so the Rothschilds could takeover its economy. An article titled "The Rothschilds' International Plot to Kill Lincoln" was published October 29, 1976, in New Solidarity."

As with JFK and others, there are dozens of these CONSPIRACIES throughout History. Pick the one's you like.

Econoclast

(08/25/2001; 08:35:09 MDT - Msg ID: 60234)

nickel162...

The Greenbacks issued during the War Between the States were unbacked fiat, same as today. They were, however, Bills of Credit issued directly by the Treasury. Lincoln saw that the bankers created money out of nothing, so he decided that the Treasury could do that directly, thereby negating the interest and seignorage costs that the government pays bankers to create money from nothing.
They are another example of inflation through uncontrollable government spending. Could you imagine if Congress could just create the money from nothing in todays world? Congress at the time, authorized $150 million but by the end of the war, $452 million was in circulation.

From an abstract of Lincoln's Monetary Policy:
"Government, possessing power to create and issue currency and credit as money and enjoying the right to withdraw currency and credit from circulation by taxation and otherwise, need not and should not borrow capital at interest...the privilege of creating and isssuing money is not only the supreme perogative of the government but it is the government's greatest creative opportunity."

Now that'll P.O. some greedy bankers!

PH in LA

(08/25/2001; 09:04:55 MDT - Msg ID: 60235)

"How dumb is too dumb?"

Thanks, Darkhorse,

for your reply (msg#: 60224)!

This was indeed the kind of answer I hoped for when I posted the quotation... I also, had my doubts about the quatrain.

Of course, the rabid, hopelessly self-concious and insecure ideological right couldn't restrain themselves and jumped in trying to turn the discussion to Gore and Clinton which only served to emphasize the aptness of the bogus quotation.

Thoughtful observers, though, have no doubts whatsoever about the inept specimen that serves (however temporarily) as the purported leader of our country, although to the properly indoctrinated, he seems honest and smart enough.

Thus, the bumper-sticker that serves as headline to this post...

Knallgold

(08/25/2001; 09:29:57 MDT - Msg ID: 60236)

Change in policy of the euro side

FOA:"... while the Euro / BIS faction
has shifted to doing the same to destroy the paper gold market faster..."

I thought it must collapse on its own.I guess it must happen before or with the euro introduction.

BR549

(08/25/2001; 10:11:32 MDT - Msg ID: 60237)

A few rebuttals, then I'm done�

http://home.att.net/~rjnorton/Lincoln74.htmlJohn Doe (msg#: 60228)-

Thanks for your advice to me on etiquette and how to post. I'll "treasure" it always.

Paper money invention-I am sure that the Chinese have invented everything. The HC lesson has to do with banskters issuing gold backed notes as a claim against their gold reserves and turning a portion of that paper into fiat currency. I think the U.S. invented "U.S. Congressional Fiat". (Maybe it was the Chinese). The Chinese are still inventing today. They have invented a way to convince the U.S. that their one sided trade is good for our gluttonous debt ridden consumers.

Federal Reserve System (your FRS) and Federal Reserve Notes (my FRN's), I do know the difference and the Greenback System are based on the same concept--> FIAT.

Lincoln's Assassination-For you and Nickel162 and any other conspiracy types, I've got the answer based upon the above link:

SECRETARY OF WAR EDWIN STANTON WAS THE MASTERMIND BEHIND LINCOLN'S ASSASSINATION WHICH WAS THE RESULT OF A CONFEDERATE PLOT who in conspiracy with THE ROMAN CATHOLIC CHURCH backed by the money CONSPIRACY OF POWERFUL INTERNATIONAL BANKERS got ANDREW JOHNSON to hire John Wilkes Booth.

(OR)

The entire plot consisted simply of John Wilkes Booth as the leader of a small band of co-conspirators. No other people were involved.

"Other groups and individuals that have at times been implicated in Lincoln's assassination include domestic bankers, financiers and businessmen, Copperheads, certain Radical Republicans (either on their own or in concert with Edwin Stanton), the B'nai B'rith, and the Knights of the Golden Circle. Major Henry R. Rathbone, John F. Parker, and Mary Todd Lincoln have not totally escaped suspicion. Speculation that Booth's motivation was to avenge the hanging of Confederate John Yates Beall"

But really it is the conspiracy detailed in The London Times that is the real conspiracy. Feel free to rewrite history any way you want.

BR549-[I notice that all of your critical comments were gleaned from the last half of the last episode. A coincidence?]

Doe-"What are you implying, that I've reviewed this without watching it? Tch, tch, such etiquette, and on this fine forum, no less."

My, my. How thin skinned. What I meant here is NOT that you did not watch all of the episodes but that you did NOT focus your criticisms of the GOLD series on any aspect but PAPER money which was the last half of the last episode. (Which in the History of GOLD is a very short relative time period). Am I wrong??

Regards from Cornfield County

Old Yeller

(08/25/2001; 12:13:21 MDT - Msg ID: 60238)

Could there be a dollar carry trade developing?

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AO4ci.BY.Si5QLiBN
Wouldn't that be a pleasant turn of events?Many dollar negatives cited here,builds a compelling case for piling on positions,especially as the cost of establishing a position keeps getting lowered,courtesy of Mr.G.

Cavan Man

(08/25/2001; 12:29:59 MDT - Msg ID: 60239)

Knallgold

MarkersTake a not...

1. Wm. D. retires
2. Mr. G retires
3. France publicly declares for gold.
4. A Euroland gold coin will be minted

SteveH had kept a short list many months ago also. Perhaps he will see this and repost.

Cavan Man

(08/25/2001; 12:30:44 MDT - Msg ID: 60240)

Knallgold

That's take a "note"....

nickel62

(08/25/2001; 12:33:52 MDT - Msg ID: 60241)

Econoclast.

Thank you for the explanation. I didn't know that the greenbacks had cut the banks out of the deal. That makes the history aspect of Lincoln more interesting.

nickel62

(08/25/2001; 12:34:53 MDT - Msg ID: 60242)

BR549

For what it is worth I don't consider my self a conspiracy nut and don't appreciate being referred to as one.

escapethematrix

(08/25/2001; 13:02:35 MDT - Msg ID: 60243)

What new revelations does GATA have on "Goldgate"??

Snippets From 8-24 MIDAS at Cafe Lemet.:

Today, was a mega day for GATA behind the scenes:
*Bill,
Just got off the phone with the Mint's Public Relations Department. When I asked about the West Point re-classification they said that a lot of people were asking about it. According to the guy I talked to, it was done for some "archane accounting reason" but didn't specify what that was (he didnt know). He said that there had just been a meeting at Treasury about it. Furthermore, he mentioned that the Mint police were doing an investigation.
The excuse for changing it from gold bullion reserve to deep storage was that some people didn't understand what gold bullion reserve meant and that deep storage would be more explanatory. He couldn't explain why only half the West Point gold was re-classified.
Best Regards,
Andrew
-END
Then, we had these goodies:
*A GATA supporter and Caf� member discovered the Play Book of The Gold Cartel.
*More irrefutable evidence surfaced from "the horse's mouth" that the Treasury was trading in "gold swaps" after 1978.
*One of the most well known newspapers in the world has just assigned a reporter to investigate what GATA is saying.
The highlites presented above will be revealed at the appropriate time. We are in a war with The Gold Cartel. They have been eating our lunch in the most vile and crooked manner for more than half the last decade. The tide is turning. The war is finally going our way. We have them petrified right now of what is coming next.
We will choose the time and place to deliver our next blow. As one of GATA's high command said this afternoon, "we can take out a light cruiser with this information if we release it today, or we can wait and take out two aircraft carriers with it if we release it a most propitious moment - it is that powerful."
So, we wait.

I'd expect to hear the news before October 9,
in any event.

John Doe

(08/25/2001; 13:02:52 MDT - Msg ID: 60244)

nickel62

Lincoln implemented the Greenback system because the banking cartel of the time was willing to lend to the US government only at usurious interest rates exceeding 20-40%. Lincoln's Greenback differed from the modern FRS in that the money issued was neither a debt obligation, nor did it require interest payments. The government injected this money into the system for its purchases through legal tender laws, and then accepted it back again in payment of taxes. It's sort of like the gold standard in that the Greenback system was no one's liability and it didn't pay interest, but used simple paper in lieu of gold. Of course, such a system held the potential for inflationary/deflationary abuse, but for those with the intent and means not to abuse it , and held to growth rates commensurate with GDP, it would have functioned perfectly adequately to the needs of commerce. Since Lincoln's time, such a system has again been proposed as one possible means to rid the US of the FRS. And, as one might imagine, the lobby against this by interested parties between the people and their appointed government is overpowering.

As I am of the opinion that among the prime drivers of human history is the money function, it seems plausible to me that an attempt to subvert the established money function in the US either caused or contributed to Lincoln's untimely end. This is but one possible explanation, but an explanation that makes sense in the context of prior money history, especially in the US.

If you aren't already aware of it, you may also find an alternate theory behind JFK's assassination of interest as well. Through Executive Order 11.110, some five months before his death, JFK began reissuing non-debt, non-interest silver certificates, backed by the government's immense silver reserves, in an attempt to quell future government borrowing, which was inexorably growing out of control. Upon his death, all of these were recalled from circulation, and, interestingly, the circulating coinage silver was quickly debased as well within a year or so. Under LBJ, Federal debt exploded, whereupon most of the $5.8 trillion in stated Federal debt (the obligations of the government are actually much higher) has since been accrued.

Of course, this could all have been coincidence -- twice. ;o)

nickel62

(08/25/2001; 13:13:02 MDT - Msg ID: 60245)

Thank You John Doe

I didn't know of the differrence in the greenbacks versus the current fiat system and can see where it may have played a part in either or both. I have personally met two of the speakers on the Gold Special of the History Channel and I wouldn't trust either of them as far as I could throw them. There was also a strange choice in who was chosen to speak. Not most of the people you would have suspected. Peter Berstein made most of his reputation with derivatives and Milling Stanley was nothing more than a non profit flack a few years back. Now he is claiming to be a historian. Maybe the World Gold Council has deepened his insights?

John Doe

(08/25/2001; 13:16:59 MDT - Msg ID: 60246)

nickel62

My favorite was the fellow who likened central bank gold to "a stack of tires". I didn't catch his name, but his credentials were "a writer"!

Netking

(08/25/2001; 14:23:27 MDT - Msg ID: 60247)

Bush Tries Out Business Skills on Government

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010825/ts/bush_dc_1.htmlSnippit:

George W. Bush, the first U.S. president with a Harvard business degree, offered solutions on Saturday to fix more than a dozen "long-neglected management problems" in the federal government.

By his own account no micro-manager, Bush has asked each of his Cabinet secretaries to name a chief operating officer to be held accountable for the performance of their agency. The designees will form the President's Management Council.

"Americans demand top-quality service from the private sector, "Bush said in his weekly radio address broadcast from his ranch near Crawford, where the president is winding up a month-long working vacation. "They should get the same top-quality service from their government. . ."

BR549

(08/25/2001; 14:50:12 MDT - Msg ID: 60248)

John Doe---are you Steve Miller?

http://www.miller.dircon.co.uk/money.html
Doe-" differed from the modern FRS in that . , and . It's sort of like the gold standard in , but used simple paper in lieu of gold.

Miller-"At times in the past, An example is , . ."

Doe-
Miller-

Doe-
Miller-

Doe- .
Miller-< money has been issued not by private banks but directly by government > ."

Doe-
Miller-

John Doe: Many ideas and phrases of yours match Steve Miller's very closely. Coincidence? Or are you Steve Miller?

Regards from Cornfield County

Black Blade

(08/25/2001; 14:57:19 MDT - Msg ID: 60249)

Gold Mart Averts Eyes From TV History

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010825/business_minerals_gold_documentary_dc.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Perhaps the problems that gold is having in financial markets these days is all about bad karma...some new millennium payback for the havoc which greed for the yellow metal wrought through human history. One could get that impression watching the four-hour television documentary ``GOLD'', premiering on the History Channel this week and drawing interest but plenty of yawns and cynicism from traders trying to milk a lucrative living from a languishing gold futures and bullion business.

From the murder of the Incas to the Holocaust, the film views mankind's path to modern times through the prism of, quoting the Roman poet Virgil, a ``cursed thirst'' for gold.

Black Blade: Apparently the whole point of owning Gold was lost on many who watched the History Channel presentation "GOLD."

nickel62

(08/25/2001; 15:12:27 MDT - Msg ID: 60250)

BR549

What is with the "are you Steve Miller?" Are you Dolly Parton? Who cares?

John Doe

(08/25/2001; 15:20:09 MDT - Msg ID: 60251)

(No Subject)

I have never heard of Steve Miller, the author. I've heard of Steve Miller the pop musician, though I'm more of a Pink Floyd fan myself.

"Haven't you heard? It's a battle of words, and most of them are lies."

Pink Floyd, Us and Them, Dark Side of the Moon, 1973.

Netking

(08/25/2001; 15:44:35 MDT - Msg ID: 60252)

Military tensions heightened over Caspian Sea oil

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/world/story.html?f=/stories/20010825/666857.htmlFighter jets deployed: Five states disagree on how to divide rich reserves

Snippit:
Tempers are flaring like oil wells in the Caspian basin, a region plagued by border disputes, escalating ethnic tensions, corrupt governments, growing militarization -- and some of the world's most promising oil discoveries.

The level of hostility reached an alarming new high recently as Iran and Azerbaijan squared off in a series of military confrontations that have seen Iranian gunboats threaten to expel two oil survey ships working under an Azeri contract from part of the Caspian Sea claimed by both countries.

Since then, the steady escalation of diplomatic rhetoric and military countermeasures has triggered alarm bells across the region.

This week, the growing crisis climaxed in the temporary deployment of 10 Turkish F-16 fighter planes to Azerbaijan in a not-too-subtle warning to Iran.

At the heart of the dispute is an unresolved conflict over how to divide the Caspian Sea and its resources.

Iran and the old Soviet Union had a series of diplomatic agreements signed in 1921 and 1940 that gave Tehran a 13% share of the Caspian seabed. But after the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, the newly independent states of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan demanded their share . . .
------------------------------------------------------------
Jon Doe: All in all it's just another brick in tha wall . . .

David Linkley

(08/25/2001; 15:59:13 MDT - Msg ID: 60253)

BBC Warns of Looming Hedge Fund Disaster

http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/english/business/newsid_1507000/1507480.stm"Remember the shock to the world's financial system when the LTCM hedge fund faltered? The BBC's Rodney Smith reports on rumours that another nasty shock could be just around the corner.

A large hedge fund may be in trouble.

That is the story circulating a few days ago in New York, London, Hong Kong and South Africa. . .

John H Mesrobian at Constantinople Advisers, believe[s] investors should be bailing out of the US market, where the bubble would be likely to burst first, and should be selling the dollar and buying the euro, and gold."

Linkley Note: Many remember the LTCM $1.5 tillion bailout as a near miss that could have brought down Wall Street and the world banking system. Now some think, as this BBC article points out, that this time the Fed "could be overwhelmed by the sheer scale of a new crisis."

BR549

(08/25/2001; 16:33:32 MDT - Msg ID: 60254)

A "cursed thirst'' for gold

Black Blade (msg#: 60249)

BB: Another great link. I try and read all of yours as the Link Laureate of the GoldBugs.

Wouldn't it be wonderful if the HC inspired a ``cursed thirst'' for gold in students while viewing GOLD that encouraged them to become a new generation of ``it's so pretty that we really couldn't help ourselves'' collectors, instead of buying into most of their parents mutual fund ideas.

I think it may be too late for the main media CNBC equity and bond parents, but not the kids.

Horatio

(08/25/2001; 17:47:03 MDT - Msg ID: 60255)

Lincoln & Kennedy

Lincoln had the Treasury issue its own Greenbacks and was shot.
Kennedy had just completed plans for Treasury to issue its own Greenbacks and was shot.
When Treasury issues its own ,theres no interest obligation to anyone.
Follow the Money (Interest)

Netking

(08/25/2001; 18:09:33 MDT - Msg ID: 60256)

M/East (cont.)

http://www.haaretzdaily.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=67503&contrassID=1⊂ContrassID=1&sbSubContrassID=0I've been following the site of Dave Dolans Sir Marketalk gave us. Excellent for watching developing events in the M.E. There could be a potentially huge retribution from the IDF for two attacks in the last 24 hours, this could be "the straw that breaks the camels back":

* Two Palestinian gunmen infiltrated an elite IDF army base in the Gaza Strip and opened fire, killing three (including a major) & wounding seven. . . . Then a short while ago three Israelis were shot and killed and two children wounded when Palestinian gunmen opened Saturday night fire on a car travelling between Jerusalem and Modiin Israeli military radio reported.

Despite the peace rhetoric and posturing, there appears to be two trains coming towards each other on the same track at an alarming speed . . .

Meanwhile just before tha latest two events China slams Israel, renews support for Arafat's 'just cause'
http://www.haaretzdaily.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=67483&contrassID=1⊂ContrassID=1&sbSubContrassID=0&listSrc=Y

Black Blade

(08/25/2001; 18:29:25 MDT - Msg ID: 60257)

Fuel armadas scurry to rescue supply-starved US Midwest

http://news.excite.com/printstory/news/r/010824/14/energy-midwest-shipping
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - An armada of fuel tankers and barges are making their way to the U.S. Midwest from as far away as the North Sea to rescue the fuel-starved region from another supply crunch. The ships, surging in a wave up the Mississippi, and headed toward the gaping mouth of the St. Lawrence River, are expected to begin feeding the heartland with much-needed gasoline and diesel by as early as next week. The fresh influx of fuel will be welcome relief for the region, which has been left to handle rock-bottom supplies and sky-high prices following a prolonged shutdown of a key Citgo refinery in Lemont, Illinois, and a number of smaller refinery woes. "Barge traffic up the Mississippi has increased ten-fold," said Ron Hull of Sea Hull Inc., a shipping brokerage in Texas. "Barges are fully booked till October. The Midwest has really tightened up since Citgo."

Wholesale gasoline prices in Chicago have jumped nearly 30 cents to $1.15 a gallon since Citgo's refinery went down Aug. 14, according to dealers. That is matched by a 15 cent spike at the Chicago pumps last week to $1.71 a gallon -- 27 cents higher than the national average of $1.44 a gallon. "It's absolutely crazy here, if you want the truth," said one gasoline trader. Meanwhile, wholesale diesel prices have jumped nearly 23 cents in Chicago to roughly $1.04 a gallon amid worries that there will not be adequate supply to bring in the autumn crops.

Black Blade: How vulnerable this country (USA) is when one rather insignificant refinery is shutdown and panic ensues. One would think that there was a huge natural disaster where the entire world pulls together to help out the Midwestern "Grasshoppers." Yet there are no plans to build new larger refining facilities.

Black Blade

(08/25/2001; 18:49:19 MDT - Msg ID: 60258)

High Prices Will Continue for Natural Gas

http://199.97.97.163/IMDS%PMANAT0%read%/home/content/users/imds/feeds/kiplinger/2001/08/25/eng-kiplinger/eng-kiplinger_092458_7580988607264622603
Snippit:

IT WILL TAKE MANY MONTHS AND MILES OF NEW PIPELINES BEFORE NATURAL GAS CONSUMERS BEGIN GETTING RELIEF FROM THIS YEAR'S RECORD-HIGH PRICES.

Demand for natural gas in the U.S. will continue to outpace supply for at least another year, keeping prices at near-record levels. Longer term, look for several large pipeline projects in the works around the country to eventually deliver natural gas faster to more locations.

The current problems of low supply and high prices were seeded in the1990s, when drilling fell off dramatically as rock-bottom oil prices depressed demand for natural gas and created a gas deficit that producers are only now starting to mitigate. Currently, those problems are exacerbated by low levels of gas in storage, leaving no reliable cushion against sharp regional price spikes. Jay Yannello, senior natural gas analyst at UBS Warburg, says that storage levels in many areas are under 2800 billion cubic feet (bcf) per day, below the generally accepted comfort level of 3000 bcf.

The weather over the next several months won't help matters either. The federal Climate Prediction Center says that this winter will be moderately colder than the past three winters, and it expects next summer to be slightly hotter than normal. That combination will deplete gas supplies and delay the rebuilding of inventories, especially in the Northeast. Customers will pay about $4 to $5.50 per 1000 cubic feet (mcf) through the winter. Prices will come down and might bottom out in a year or two at $2.50 to $3 per mcf, according to Yannello, but they won't drop to the $2 level of a couple of years ago.

The trend toward gas-fired power plants will further increase natural gas consumption and put a strain on efforts to raise inventory levels. Most new facilities in the works will run on natural gas to avoid environmental hazards posed by coal and other fossil fuels. Cambridge Energy Research Associates forecasts a 140% surge in demand from gas-fired generators by 2010 in the Northeast alone.

Black Blade: Quite a different assessment than that of the AGA on NG supply. Whatever the case, come winter the draw on supply will be greater as now we see many new NG-fired power plants along with the traditional users. If this winter is colder than normal it could get "interesting." It will also compound the problems of the energy crisis during this Recession.

Netking

(08/25/2001; 19:05:05 MDT - Msg ID: 60259)

Silver Coinage: Basis for the formation of a Latin American Common Market in Century 21

http://www.plata.com.mx/plata/silver.htmA few snippits from Hugo Salinas Price's excellent article:

- As in medicine, half of a successful treatment lies in a correct diagnosis. The cause of our ills lies predominantly in the fact that without Dollar reserves there is no monetary system and no financial system.

- Only a currency with intrinsic value can provide us with a monetary and financial system which will not require Dollar reserves. The history of thousands of years, allows us to state that only gold and silver, can provide us with currency of intrinsic value.

- It is incovenient for the moment, to talk of gold, since the policy of the United States is resolutely against the remonetization of gold. On the other hand, silver is not so politicized and besides, our people have a historic memory of hundreds of years of the use of silver as money. Most of our people cannot envision themselves as owners of gold coins; however, they can easily imagine themselves as users of silver currency. For this reason, I propose the silverization of our economies, in lieu of the increasing dolarization.

- Evidently, massive currency and financial turmoil worlwide is on the horizon, for the International Monetary Fund has just recently proposed a 40% increase in capital, surely aware that world economic collapse is a real menace.

(One of the several proposals include:)
- Win the consent of the various mints of Latin America, to coin pure silver currency with weights of one ounce, � ounce, � ounce, 1/10 ounce and 1/20 ounce. These coins already exist in Mexico and can be reproduced in the other countries of Latin America, with the sme characteristics but with their own national symbols. The mints will consent to coin, at cost, all silver which is presented to them for coinage.

- The people of Latin America will begin to save in silver, and will restore to this noble metal a use which it has had since time immemorial.

- The monetization of silver, means the privatization of money. Central banks cease to be the suppliers of discredited paper money, and the miners of Latin America assume the extremely important role of purveyors of currency.

- The common currency of Latin America becomes automatically the world�s best currency, and wins worldwide acceptance.

- The remonetization of silver means that its price rises, and benefits the miners.

- The people of Latin America are already willing to save silver without the benefit of earning interest. (All silver coinage disappears immediately) How much more willing to save silver will they be, if they are given the opportunity of depositing their silver in savings accounts denominated in silver, in the banks which are most responsible and enjoy the best reputations? Internal savings surge and foreign capital ceases to enjoy a privileged position, and becomes only ancillary to popular, national savings.

- The spectre of devaluation disappears, and with it a curse of the Twentieth Century for Latin America. Silver currency has its own intrinsic value, and once monetized, silver will no longer be subject to the vagaries of foreign industry. If foreign industry wishes to have silver, it will have to pay for it a price sufficient to persuade the holders of silver to hand it over. In other words, there will be an important internal market in Latin America, and not only an external market, as at present.

- All the various silver coins, wherever they have been minted, will circulate freely and without distinctions as to origin, all over Latin America. Peruvian and Bolivian coins will circulate in Mexico, and Mexican coins will be found in Patagonia and Chile.

- On the basis of a common currency, we shall have created immediately a true common market.

Sierra Madre

(08/25/2001; 19:16:38 MDT - Msg ID: 60260)

Who issues the paper? That is the question...

Today's discussion about Greenbacks vs. the Banking Establishment - together with some uncalled for acrimony - boils down to:

Yes, I suppose if human beings were like angels, then paper would be as good as gold, and paper could be issued in such a way that it would not be necessary to mine gold or obtain it through trade. There has been lots written on this: how much sterile effort is expended to obtain the metal, whereas the population could just as well use paper etc. and save a lot of national effort. We've all heard it before.

Trouble is, we're NOT anything like angelic.

So, if paper is going to be issued as money, the question boils down to: that implies a heck of a lot of power, and WHO is going to exercise that power?

John Q. Public could not care less if it is the Fed's Notes or the Treasury's Greenback.

To the people that run these operations, it means a great deal: who cuts the cheese, i.e., who runs the country.

I remember reading those books on "Social Credit"- Social Credit used to be rather big in Canada, years ago. It all came down, again, to the same thing: WHO issues the credit chits?

Better we settle for gold - and even that can be manipulated, as we are seeing. But eventually, gold survives the manipulations and the scams, and there it sits.

Sierra

Max Rabbitz

(08/25/2001; 19:22:24 MDT - Msg ID: 60261)

HC Gold Series

was "Brought to you by Investors Business Daily." We all know where their interests lie. I wonder if they can blame what's coming on gold. Greedy people hoarding Money? No that won't work. Greedy speculators shutting down the commodity markets?

With regard to "How dumb is too dumb?" how about "too smart by half" with regard to those who brought this country the great credit bubble. The coming destruction of our monetary system was brought to us by those claiming to be the best and brightest. I doubt if 1 in a 100 really understand derivatives or have even considered the possibility of that 100 year flood. Really sharp guys. Some would call them Slick.

Zenidea

(08/25/2001; 20:49:24 MDT - Msg ID: 60262)

re:Part 2.

Quietly sitting in the corner listening.FOA. Like the bug and the valve man yarn :). OK lets say all this Euro/US/IMF derivitives senerio pans out and Gold up!,
if thats where the world and its populace is headed?.
I just have one simple daft closed question. Does that not leave the Au/Oil richly resourced (In the ground ) countries with an extraordinary advantage and the predator (mineraly barren) economies wailing more so?. At the end of the day
I am still looking for world equity. Just quite cant seem to
discern or grasp the difference between manipulation and
honest business if the answers Yes. At the end of the day
it seems to me that the net result would be the same.
(smiles)

Sojourner

(08/25/2001; 21:01:25 MDT - Msg ID: 60263)

Federal Reserve and JFK

I searched and searched for the following quote when it was being discussed. I just found it and still think that it is worth sharing.

The wife of Lee Harvey Oswald told A.J. Weberman in 1994, "The answer to the Kennedy assassination is with the Federal Reserve Bank. Don't underestimate that. It's wrong to blame it on Angleton and the CIA per se only. This is only one finger of the same hand. The people who supply the money are above the CIA."

Weberman is a writer but I do not know who he writes for or if he writes books.

There is also an interesting note about Hinckley (of Reagan infamy) and George H.W. Bush. Want to hear it?

Old Yeller

(08/25/2001; 22:10:04 MDT - Msg ID: 60264)

Paul Kasriel; closet golden boy

http://www.northerntrust.com/library/econ_research/weekly/us/010824.html
Good write-up on the money printing antics of our friendly central bankers.Seems as if he wants to remain somewhat discreet in regards to his fondess for the yellow as a store of value,though.

Gee,I wonder why that is?

BR549

(08/26/2001; 00:54:39 MDT - Msg ID: 60265)

FIAT vs. Value-Based Currency

The arguments of whether the bureaucrats in the Treasury that issued Greenbacks or the bankster's Federal Reserve System that issues Federal Reserve Notes is superior, IMHO is a waste of time. The battle rages elsewhere.

Both of the above, any way you define them, along with the Euro are FIAT. The real question today is how can the U.S. implement value-based currencies to complete with the Russians, the Egyptians, and the trend in the rest of the world. The surest way is to issue gold coins pegged at a certain real FRN value (or better yet a weighted basket of goods and services similar to the PPP) or return to the gold standard with value-based gold currencies.

Will both real gold and value-based currencies be manipulated for the TPTB/banksters benefit? You betcha! But at least with value-based currencies the hoarding that will take place by the citizens that will remove a certain amount of currency from circulation, will distribute the gold to the people, and away from the banksters/government. According to the HC, the U$ had 22,000 tonnes of gold at the end of WWII. We are down to an estimated 8,167 physical tonnes now, a great deal of which the paper title may have been traded away to other nations.

Will the Fed voluntarily head in the direction of value-based currency on its own? No, but maybe if we can adequately educate the next generation, it will happen then. Let's hope so at least.

Meanwhile, as the football coach said to his team--Let's fight 'em to hell freezes over and then skate after �em on the ice."

View Yesterday's Discussion.

Netking

(08/26/2001; 01:02:31 MDT - Msg ID: 60266)

Toshiba 'to axe 20,000 jobs'

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1509000/1509020.stmSnippit:
Toshiba Corp, Japan's top manufacturer of electronic chips, is planning to cut 20,000 jobs worldwide, according to Japanese media reports. Toshiba's move, which is expected to be announced next week, comes amid a global slump in demand for technology which is hitting Japan's hi-tech firms.

On 20 August, the chip and PC giant Fujitsu unveiled a restructuring plan which will see 16,400 jobs go, NEC Corp has announced 4,000 redundancies, and there are also reports that Hitachi is ready to lay off thousands of workers . . . when the official unemployment figure, due to be announced on Tuesday, is expected to show an all-time high . . . "

Netking

(08/26/2001; 02:09:38 MDT - Msg ID: 60267)

Sunday times recommends gold

http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/news/pages/sti/2001/08/26/stibusagn03001.html?Snippit:
"DON'T throw your gold trinkets away just yet. As an investment, the metal may have been horribly out of fashion for the past decade, but with world economies continuing to slide, gold could be about to stage a revival. There are already signs that sentiment may be changing. The big gold miners, Barrick, Newmont and AngloGold, have this year been among the better performing stocks on the New York Stock Exchange.

So far this re-rating has not fed through to the physical price of gold, which remains stubbornly stuck in a $255 to $285 per ounce (�177 to �198) trading range. But some metals analysts believe it could soon break through the $300 barrier and climb to $350 . . ."

Black Blade

(08/26/2001; 02:30:33 MDT - Msg ID: 60268)

Japanese electronics groups eyeing major job cuts

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010826/sp134627.html
Snippit:

TOKYO, Aug 26 (Reuters) - Two of Japan's largest electronics groups, Hitachi Ltd and Toshiba Corp , are each looking at cutting 20,000 jobs because of the global tech downturn and Japan's worsening economic slump, media reported. The cuts come after competitors NEC Corp and Fujitsu Ltd said they would axe jobs as Japan's lumbering electronics giants face their second round of massive retrenchments in less than three years.

Black Blade: That's 40,000 Japanese "Bones" added to the "Bone Pile." Japan has traditionally been very reluctant to layoff workers in a country where one is defined by their job. A job in Japan was considered not only a right - but a job for life where even offspring were almost guaranteed a job. Times have changed. All this comes on the heels of the NEC and Fujitsu layoff announcements. Rumors persist that a couple of major Japanese banks are "on the ropes" and may soon announce either mergers or bankruptcies. Another rumor is that the Japanese government has quietly been in the stock market buying shares on the Nikkei. However, the Nikkei Index has performed so poorly that this rumor may be just a rumor, or else the effort is not working out.

Black Blade

(08/26/2001; 02:48:54 MDT - Msg ID: 60269)

The Growing "Bone Pile"

Why "Bone Pile?" Many years ago I was working my way through college at a medical device company. All their discontinued and obsolete inventory was placed in an area of the warehouse designated the "Bone Yard." In the "Bone Yard" were several "Bone Piles." Occasionally an order would come in for something in the "Bone Yard." But these items were considered undesirable and no longer needed. In fact they just took up space. In my years working with mining corporations all the Mines had "Bone Yards" with old rusting undesirable obsolete equipment placed into several "Bone Piles."

Recently I posted on the unemployment situation where recent college graduates who were promised jobs as MBA's and others in the Tech and Dot.Com industries were suddenly receiving letters informing them that those jobs were no longer available. In other words they were already "Redundant," "obsolete," and "undesirable" before even having one day on the job. In short they were tossed upon the "Bone Pile" to "take up space and rust." Many "undesirable" and "redundant" employed people will soon be added to the unemployment "Bone Pile" in coming weeks as this Recession gains momentum. The unemployment situation is just a symptom of the worsening economy. Meanwhile we watch as the "Bone Pile" grows larger day by day.

Cavan Man

(08/26/2001; 06:51:50 MDT - Msg ID: 60270)

The growing housing market bubble

http://www.bloomberg.com/feature/feature998687862.htmNo mention of fannies and freddies though. Good commentary

R Powell

(08/26/2001; 07:46:33 MDT - Msg ID: 60271)

Gold series again

on the History channel this afternoon. All four parts will be aired starting at 3:00 EST. Many of us early risers can now view the episodes we missed and not suffer from sleep deprivation the following day.
Rich

R Powell

(08/26/2001; 08:24:49 MDT - Msg ID: 60272)

World Silver Survey information

The survey was prepared for The Silver Institute by Gold Fields Mineral Services Ltd. It contains both statistics and opinions which may or may not be entirely accurate but has often been sited as the source of numbers analysed by others. It's opinions have likewise been the subject of discussion by silver analysts such as Ted Butler and David Morgan.
Chapter 1 lists total supply and demand from 1991-2000, with demand for year 2000 at 946.3 million ounces. This includes 25.4 million listed as producer hedging. Producer hedging was listed as zero (nadda) under the supply side. I found this interesting but the report was not clear as to whether this 25.4 million was silver bought by producers last year or whether that amount of previously sold (hedged) had been offset during the year. The report warns of the difficulty in obtaining (and thus assessing) reliable numbers.
" A note of caution is warrented about these numbers: unlike gold, the silver market has not benefited from greater transparency and a more regular information flow about producer hedging activity, and reliable, comprehensive statistics are virtually impossible to come by. Part of the reason for this is that a substantial part of silver hedging is generated by producers of other metals."
The report also mentions different disclosure laws in various countries and gives the opinion that new mine operations are not happening due to the low POS and this has removed the need for hedging as the means of generating capital for expansion of mining operations. Raising capital is often mentioned as the reason for producer hedging, so much so that the survey directly links the downturn in operations (due to low POS) to a no hedging. Not only is hedging absent as a supply component but 25.4 million ounces are listed under demand.
Interesting also that the report states that low lease rates are the result of plenty of available silver for lease (lots of liquidity) or the lack of demand for leased silver due to the absense of producer hedging.
Back to the numbers. From the 946.3 million ounces of demand, the survey subtracted the supply from mine production, official sales and reclaimed scrap. The total fell 102.0 million ounces short so, this implied that 102.0 million ounces was supplied from "Implied Net Disinvestment".
More later,
Rich

tedw

(08/26/2001; 10:08:35 MDT - Msg ID: 60273)

Gold Series

http://www.usagold.com I saw the 4 part gold series on Direct TV last night.

Gold certainly has been a major element in the history of man. As the scripture states, "the love of money is the root of all evil" and you could see this in the series.

Human nature hasnt changed in 5000 years (except in a few rare individual cases) and one can expect the love of money and therfore gold to play a role in future historical events.

To believe that Gold will not be signifcant is to believe that human nature has changed, and that is not the case.

Knallgold

(08/26/2001; 10:36:28 MDT - Msg ID: 60274)

"USA:fear of electricity glut"

That was a headline in a swiss newspaper,the journalist thinks the energy crisis in the US is solved.Lots of power plants are being built and are already on the net,gas exploration has increased,alternative energy booming,people save more energy etc.--- leading to an overproduction,"crash after the boom",energy glut and collapsing prices.I have this journalist on record as a Gore fan'so its no surprise he's then firing in the commentary a shot at Bush and his oil friends.

Do I hear BlackBlade laughing?

Henri

(08/26/2001; 11:03:34 MDT - Msg ID: 60275)

Time to call my Doctor...my medication dosage needs adjusting again.

OK, here we are on the apparently non-reversable path to the removal of the dollar as THE world reserve currency.

We have the crystal ball and we see what is coming. Dollar value plummeting on the global markets...bond values falling/interest rates rising instep with Fed cuts so that net change is to higher interest rates. Fed down to 0% rates like the Japanese yet bonds still falling as credibility in the dollar declines. Western financial markets collapse and the long planned movement of US gold out of the US and into European/Middle eastern hands begins with claims on outstanding SDR certs.

What if we just say no?

Dollar value plummeting on the global markets...bond values falling/interest rates rising instep with Fed cuts so that net change is to higher interest rates. Fed down to 0% rates like the Japanese yet bonds still falling as credibility in the dollar declines. Western financial markets collapse.

So what they were going to anyway.

We could print more fiat and buy back our bonds and other foreign obligations at $0.10/dollar and wipe out the outstanding dollar debt. Does anyone really care if Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch go bankrupt in the process??? We are talking about a new playing field here.

Let's just take our chips (gold) and go home. We lost, Oh yeah, the bankers will have to be killed by the other players for taking paper IOU's for our gold instead of the real thing.

Now there's the problem with all these dollars appearing. What better way to make them disappear then to pay folks to use them. Yeah that's it. Stop the presses, use the money/credit/debt that currently exists and allow it to slowly "burn.

Just "Loan" $1,000,000 and only ask for $500,000 back. The shortage of dollars created by such a "burn" would in twenty years deflate the value of the dollar so its market value would return to its good ole value again.

As for the loans, No bankers, hedge funds nor foreigners need apply. Only individuals. The excess dollars that were created are gone and slowly , over twenty years go back to)% interest rates instead of -50% rates.

Then we will be good to start credit expansion again.

OR, just start over with the 8000 tonnes of gold we don't pay out and follow the "Euro" model with a new fiat currency.

What of the old dollar? It is worthless when it is no longer supported by those who use it. Everyone starts from where they are. If you own your house (no mortgage), you keep it. If the bank owns your house it liquidates it for fresh credit in "New" dollars. If your bank goes belly up????

Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD

(08/26/2001; 11:21:47 MDT - Msg ID: 60276)

An Invitation to Join Us Regularly at the Commentary & Review Page

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

8/22/01

The real beneficiary of the weaker US dollar was the gold market. On Friday it snapped up through $US280 an oz for the first time in three months, before closing around $US279.50 an oz. Gold and the US dollar have a close relationship. As the US dollar falls, gold rallies. As gold is traded in US dollars this inverse relationship should exist, if all else is excluded. But other factors, like central bank gold sales, interest rates and gold lease rates, do affect the gold price. Back in 1985 the US dollar triggered gold into a wild bull market. A number of traders are now hoping that 1985 will repeat itself. Then the US dollar collapsed and gold rose from $US300 an oz to $US500 an oz.

That's it for now. See you back here in a few days. MK

- - - - - - - -

'Tis the Season

Our thanks to Spectrum Commodities. Reprinted with permission. No further reproduction without permission.

- - - - - - - - -

Request Information

Mr Gresham

(08/26/2001; 11:27:06 MDT - Msg ID: 60277)

Oh Henri

http://www.northerntrust.com/library/econ_research/weekly/us/010824.htmlThere you go, thinking of the big picture again! o;)

I'm gonna have to read yours over a couple more times, because it's packed with -- likely -- resolution to a lot of our questions. Basically, debtors (USofA, Inc.) just declaring themselves a "Jubilee Year/Decade" of debt forgiveness. Walking away just like Dads on child support. (That's what those two big oceans around us are for -- we can get away with ANYTHING.)

Good to find you here this morning...

Mr Gresham

(08/26/2001; 11:29:18 MDT - Msg ID: 60278)

Good morning, Michael

"Bear markets on average in the past have lasted from 12 to 15 years." That's months, not years, right? or is is "different" this time?

Black Blade

(08/26/2001; 11:43:48 MDT - Msg ID: 60279)

Older Workers Saw Retirement Assets Fall

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010826/business_financial_fund_retirement_dc_2.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The 401(k) retirement plans of U.S. workers were flat last year, but older participants suffered a significant erosion of their accounts during the stock market slump, a new study released on Monday showed.

Black Blade: What are these old "Bones" to do? Reenter the work force? - Not in a Recession. Hmmm�

Henri

(08/26/2001; 12:01:55 MDT - Msg ID: 60280)

Mr. Gresham Msg 60277

Yes two oceans help. Short of war what is left? Economic sanctions? Gee I guess our Northern and Southern partners would be isolated too. You mean we would all have to go to work to actually PRODUCE something other than DEBT???

Sounds like job creation to me. This is BAD?

R Powell

(08/26/2001; 12:09:00 MDT - Msg ID: 60281)

World Silver Survey continued

Earlier this year rumors of Chinese silver sales were bandied about as a possible source of supply and a reason for the low POS. The survey agrees entirely and lists 58 million ounces of silver from China as part of the 74.7 million of "Net Official Sector Sales". To the 58 we can add the 13 million that the Defense Dept. forwarded to the mints for coins (beautiful Silver Eagles). This accounts for almost all in this category. Scrap is listed at 180.3 million and mine production at 589.4 million.
Concerning sales from China the survey states that "the most significant story in terms of bullion stocks in the 1999-2000 period has been the emergence of China as a large net seller."
Their opinion is that the market price has been supply driven and that China's entry as a supplier has turned investor sentiment negative. The 102 million ounces of disinvestment is attributed to this sentiment. Speaking of Chinese supply and negative sentiment, the survey says, "As a result, some of those (but still not it would seem Mr. Buffett) who had built up long positions in anticipation of higher silver prices have exited the market. This is reflected in the higher number for implied disinvestment last year of 102 Moz."
It is this opinion that David Morgan disagrees with, stating that investors don't tend to sell when prices are low. I wonder as I think of how many holders of tech and dot com stocks were smart enough to sell before the duck's fall and how many will sell sometime in the future, at the bottom? I also believe that the shortfall between supply and demand of 102 Moz HAD to filled with disinvestment for whatever reason the holders of silver stocks decided to sell.
When viewing supply, the survey offers no surprises. They claim that production increased 7% during year 2000 and that mine production is not expected to increase from here due to the low POS.
"A number of silver mines are nearing the end of their reserves and, with the deferral of some projects due to the weak price environment, no large increase in production is expected this year."
My own thoughts on production are that, with 75% of production coming as a by-product of mining for lead, copper, zinc and gold, whatever slowdown we encounter in demand from a slowing economy will be offset from lower production of these metals. The primary silver producers will certainly not increase production at these low prices and will probably shut down marginal production as Hecla did with the "Lucky Friday" mine.
Interesting that all this information views silver as an industrial commodity and, having read the survey, I can say that the survey makes no mention of silver as money or wealth.
More later as Sunday chores need doing.
Rich

R Powell

(08/26/2001; 12:30:13 MDT - Msg ID: 60282)

GATA and others

including members of the mainstream press and the president's mom. She has the ears of the present president along with thoses of the former Bush. I wonder if she'll listen to Bill Murphy and what she'll think of what he has to say. I believe she'll understand most everything said. I wonder if any of it will surprise her?

New Orleans Investment Conference
http://www.neworleansconference.com/index.htm
The conference will be held November 28 - December 2 at the Sheraton New Orleans Hotel in New Orleans, Louisiana.

The speaker list is most impressive and includes:

A Special Presentation by Barbara Bush. First Lady, First Mother and America's most respected woman, Barbara Bush will give you behind-the-scenes insights into the Bush administration.
CNBC's popular firebrand Chris Matthews, host of HARDBALL, ought to be most entertaining.
Nobel Laureate MILTON FRIEDMAN, one of the world's most acclaimed economists, is one not to miss.
Additionally: James Turk, Frank Veneroso, and Bill Murphy will be presenting the latest information on Gold!

Usul

(08/26/2001; 12:30:55 MDT - Msg ID: 60283)

Bruised dollar dances to the tune of euro and pound

http://www.gulf-news.com/Articles/news.asp?ArticleID=25171"The euro and pound tested five-month highs as they celebrated the dollar's gloom"

"In the past, such [Fed] rate cuts were virtually guaranteed to give Wall Street a boost, but with this year's corporate profits forecast to show the worst fall in a decade, investors were not cheered by the Fed's latest monetary easing"

Hmmm... perhaps it should dance to the tune of gold.

slingshot

(08/26/2001; 12:35:30 MDT - Msg ID: 60284)

Golden Steeplechase

Step right up and place your bets. This is the First Running of the Golden Steeplechase. The horses names are as follows.
1 Trade Deficet
2 Unemployment
3 Bankruptcy
4 SDR
5 Middle East Conflict
6 China
7 Euro
8 U.S. Dollar
9 Price of OIL
10 Stock Market

The Goldbugs have filled the Stands having placed their bet by the odds they think will affect the price of Gold.
The Track has been long in the making over many years. It may be years in its length to the Finish Line.
Do you have the winning ticket? Gold!

AND THEIR OFF!
Slingshot

Usul

(08/26/2001; 12:38:10 MDT - Msg ID: 60285)

Japan standing by to prop up dollar

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010824/tau025285.html"Japanese currency authorities, including Kuroda, have kept markets wary of possible intervention to cap export-crippling yen strength"

Yen strength, or dollar weakness?

Usul

(08/26/2001; 12:43:24 MDT - Msg ID: 60286)

Could Weaker Dollar Save Greenspan?

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010825/bs/column_stocks_week_dc_1.html"Because foreign money is financing a huge chunk of American companies' debt, the companies could be susceptible to a nasty shock if the dollar takes a dive"

Usul

(08/26/2001; 12:48:24 MDT - Msg ID: 60287)

Dollar's Strength Creates Dilemma

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20010826/bs/dollar_dilemma_1.html"Blame the high-flying dollar for the prolonged economic slump that has cost 800,000 manufacturing jobs in the past year, company chiefs say...

``The dollar is overvalued by a huge amount and it is hurting American manufacturers and farmers. But you have to be very careful in how you deal with the problem,'' said Larry Chimerine, head of Radnor Economic Consulting in Radnor, Pa."

Fortunately, Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD [no connection except that I post here] can supply the age-old bulwark against currency vaporization... Gold

R Powell

(08/26/2001; 13:01:17 MDT - Msg ID: 60288)

Sunday reading

http://www.itds.treas.gov/prec_metals.htm
Thanks to Lincoln from the neighboring castle for this link.
Slingshot, is it too late to enter "Bigfloat" in the race? He's a mighty steed and has been preparing for this event for many years! If he doesn't win, I'll bet that he's at least in the money. That's lots of fiat and he's bringing it all back home.
Rich

USAGOLD

(08/26/2001; 13:09:16 MDT - Msg ID: 60289)

Mr. Gresham. . . .

http://www.the-privateer.com/starter.htmlNo. You read that right, Mr. Gresham. Bear markets are marked in years not months. This is from our friend the Privateer, Bill Buckler:

"Until mid-1954, the all time high for the Dow was 381.17, set on Tuesday, September 3, 1929. That's right, the 1929 high was not breached for 24 years. By 1966, however, the Dow had left that 1929 high far behind it. In February 1966, the index reached a high of 995. That was the Dow's first trip to the 1000 level.

The Dow made many more trips to that 1000 level. It reached it in late 1968, and it actually broke through it (barely) in early 1973, mid 1976, and mid 1981. But the Dow did not decisively breach that 1000 level until the beginning of 1983. For seventeen years (1966-1982) the 1000 level on the dow remained a formidable resistance point."

Note: Many investors in today's stock market do not know the meaning of the words "bear market."

Thanks to Bill Buckler, "The Privateer". His newsletter is highly recommended and available at the link above. The above is part of an excellent history of gold titled "Money -- An Essay."

slingshot

(08/26/2001; 13:17:24 MDT - Msg ID: 60290)

Golden Steeplechase

FELLOW GOLDBUGS, LOOK AT THAT! BIG FLOAT has come on the track and is catching up to the pack!

Just goes to show that in this game anything goes.
Did I hear CONSUMER CONFIDENCE in the stall.
Slingshot

Mr Gresham

(08/26/2001; 13:42:15 MDT - Msg ID: 60291)

Michael

Yes, recovery to a former bull market/mania peak, 15 years has happened before, 25 years in the 1929-54 case, and sounds more than right going forward from here. Especially in inflation-adjusted terms. They're jamming the stock scam for all it's worth this time.

People just can't admit they missed the boat at the bottom, can they?

"Note: Many investors in today's stock market do not know the meaning of the words "bear market." "

Gold owners are certainly "ahead" of their countrymen in that sad knowledge of a long bear and its bottoming. May we all make wise use of it now...

Usul

(08/26/2001; 14:37:48 MDT - Msg ID: 60292)

Explosion rips through Canadian gas storage plant

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010826/n26212955.html

slingshot

(08/26/2001; 14:38:59 MDT - Msg ID: 60293)

Sign of the Times

The signature of a depression will change from an apple for 5 cents, to a hotdog on a bun for a $1.00. With all the extras of course.
Slingshot

sector

(08/26/2001; 14:51:38 MDT - Msg ID: 60294)

@uponroof Get Ready for Some Heavy Artillery

There will be some heavy artillery deployed in the coming days against the cabal.

John Doe

(08/26/2001; 15:59:08 MDT - Msg ID: 60295)

For the benfit of the producers of HC's "Gold!"

http://www.labyrinth.net.au/~saul/history/money.html806-821 A.D., Reign of Emperor Hien Tsung and the development of paper money In China a severe shortage of copper for making coins causes the emperor to issue paper money notes.

1166 A.D., Hyperinflation in China The nominal value of the official paper note issues reaches 43,600,000 ounces of silver. In addition there are various local note issues.

1275-1292 A.D., Marco Polo lives in China From his subsequent account of his Travels, Europe learns of paper money.

c. 1455 A.D., China abandons paper money There are no known references to paper money being in circulation after this date. Thus after well over 500 years of experience with paper currencies, during which there have been repeated episodes of inflation and currency reform, China ceases to use paper money.

1862 A.D., in U.S., paper money.

John Doe

(08/26/2001; 16:01:35 MDT - Msg ID: 60296)

(No Subject)

NB, the U.S. 1862 reference is Lincoln's Greenback.

John Doe

(08/26/2001; 16:19:56 MDT - Msg ID: 60297)

see also

http://www.ex.ac.uk/~RDavies/arian/amser/chrono3.htmlA Comparative Chronology of Money from Ancient Times to the Present Day 500 - 1099 (extract):

806-821, Reign of Emperor Hien Tsung and the development of paper money, In China a severe shortage of copper for making coins causes the emperor to issue paper money notes.

910, Another state issue of paper money in China.

c. 960, Issues of Chinese paper money start to become regular.

c. 1020, Quantity of Chinese paper money reaches an excessive level, The total amount is nominally worth 2,830,000 ounces of silver. Vast amounts of cash are used to buy off potential invaders from the north and to pay for imports causing a cash famine. As a result the authorities increase the note issues thus fuelling inflation.

slingshot

(08/26/2001; 16:36:00 MDT - Msg ID: 60298)

Editorials

Two worth reading on Gold-Eagle site.
What Christmas will bring.
The Gold(real money) Market.

Guess who going to get the short end of the stick?
Slingshot

USAGOLD

(08/26/2001; 16:57:57 MDT - Msg ID: 60299)

Reflections on Reading the Sunday New York Times

I had quite a bit of e-mail the last time we did this. It seems that our readers liked this ramble through world events -- economic and political. Some recalled similar Sunday sessions with their fathers and grandfathers. I can't hope to replace those treasured moments, nor the yearning for them. The stimulation falls on the front doorstep these cool August mornings, and I can't help but react. It's nice to have readers who actually like these occasional jaunts through contemporary events. Perhaps it spurs a thought or two,or cements an opinion; or even changes one. . . . So here we go. . .

Page 1. . . .Exploration of World Wide Web Tilts from Eclectic to Mundane: Routine visits are replacing cyberspace surfing . . . by Amy Harmon

". . .in a shift mirrored by many other internet users, Mr. Dudley's interest in the web is no longer driven by eclectic imagination. When he logs on now, he knows what he wants and he mostly knows where to get it. . . That America's infatuation with the Web as a haven for cybersurfing adventures has morphed into a more mundane fondness for a useful information tool is in many ways a testament to how quickly it has become a part of everyday life for so many."

MK Note: A New York University professor (Mark Crispin) reflects toward the end of the article that "A medium can't do any more than its users want or think to do with it. The emergence of every new major medium over the last century or so has invariably been accompanied by a lot of utopian expectations. All our major media have come at us as if God himself to redeem us from the restrictions of time and space." So the web becomes just another tool in the search for knowledge and understanding -- albeit a more handy and efficient tool than running down to the library, or sending off for a catalog or brochure and then waiting patiently days even weeks for its arrival. What we've tried to do at USAGOLD is create a useful daily experience where the seeker can find important information on an on-going basis and DAILY. . .We actually believed all the hoopla about the information highway early on and to be truthful about it, almost passed on the internet because I had a difficult time grasping what it was all about. A visit by a European technician -- Dutch, I believe -- brought it all into perspective one day. He said something that made me move forward. I asked him to summarize for me in as few words as possible what an internet connection actually was. Mind you this was in the mid-1990s. He said, "Simple. It is a phone number. A phone number where the caller can receive all sorts of visual information instantaneously. It can be read, printed, stored on the computer. It's a place where you can store and release company information at the viewer's command. " Now, after reading two books on the subject, talking with several "providers" and jumping through most of the available hoops, these words came through loud and clear. I now had an understanding. I never strayed from that advice and then Randy Strauss came along with the same understandings and we went from there. That's the long and short of it. Now this month, we have had an average of 25,000 page hits a day with a high of 31,595 on August 9. For August through last night we have had 633,000 page hits thus far ---- and that's during the summer doldrums, our slow time. It appears that USAGOLD has become one of those privileged stopping places, and for this, we are grateful to our readers, our posters here at the forum, as well as our esteemed contributors at the Gilded Opinion page.

From that same article:

"The web is a democracy of opportunity, but not necessarily of outcome. At the beginning it was a beautiful, fertile ground where all sorts of organizations could theoretically survive, but the selection process has been incredibly fast." Bernardo Hoberman, Hewlett-Packard, and author of "Laws of the Web."

----------------------

Page 1 . . . . .Still Working, Boomers 'Retire' to Resorts . . . . by Andrew Jacobs

". . .the Davises chose the kind of move that holds increasing appeal for members of the baby boom generation, who began hitting 55 this year. They decided on a tract of sandy pine scrub in central New Jersey that is being carved into a residential resort that caters to every whim of the moneyed, leisure-seeking boomer."

MK Note: The press' preoccupation with the boomers continues unabated even as the demographic juggernaut moves to retirement age. But, you know what, this latest self-absorption by the boomers could contribute to what may be the key to avoiding a full blown recession -- a booming real estate market. So perhaps before groaning, we should all think about the possibilities this might offer to the society as a whole. The once and future hippies, then yuppies and now refugees to the gated community (replete, as NYT describes it, with swimming pools, golf courses and second homes with enough bedrooms for the kids and grandkids) may be just what the economy ordered. What's more the article says these refugees probably won't retire in the traditional sense -- but continue to be involved in their businesses and occupations though from a more leisurely perspective, mind you. The article also says that the boomers want to be close enough to the urban action to visit it when they want. So what are the economic implications of this latest boomer obsession? Elsewhere in this morning's Times, a columnist complains that available money isn't being borrowed on people's houses so that it can go into the stock market -- that consumers are borrowed up. That may be a true to a degree, but I think there's more to it than that. Earning's are horrible. The market is way overvalued. People have been burnt by the stock market and bad. The attitude is changing. Who wants to throw good money after bad? Every generation has their love affair and break up with the stock market. The boomers are now going through theirs. Could it be that consumers/investors have stopped borrowing not because they're in a box but because they simply don't want to? Home equity is still available to some extent. Property values in many parts of the country are booming. Love or hate them, one thing is certain: The boomers have been the ultimate consumers that have driven this economy and ALL have benefited. Will they do it again? This time by buying second and third homes? We all know that home purchases drive an array of market sectors. Warren Buffett was quoted the other day as saying that this recession will last eight years. I agree with him, but the recession he alludes to is the one in the stock market, not the overall economy. . . .This new social movement covered in this morning's Times may be the antidote. (A similar article appeared in the Denver Post this morning on mountain real estate.)

"People are just clamoring for this product. We just can't build them fast enough." MichaelVillane, president of a real estate development firm which has nine age-restricted communities under construction in New Jersey

-------------------------

Page 3. . . . . . Argentina's Stopgap Cash Gets Some Funny Looks. . . . .by Larry Rohter

"It looks like money, fits into a wallet like money, and the local government certainly hopes it will be accepted as money. But Angel Diaz, a policeman here,had his doubts after being paid this week not with pesos, but with a new emergency currency called the "patacon," printed by the provincial government.

MK Note: The government in Argentina is flat broke -- out of money. It can't pay its employees in pesos because the peso is tied to the dollar and all of those are being used up to pay down international debt. So the province of Buenos Aires has decided to print its own currency for local use and to pay its employees. Of course, the problem is no one wants to hold the provincial currency -- so the "patacone" is likely to go from hand to hand faster than you can say "hot potato." Demonstrators were chanting "give me pesos" outside the provincial governor's palace this past week and carrying placards that said, "Pay the foreign debt in patacones." Of course, the international bankers largely responsible for Argentina's woes wouldn't sanction that, nor would the IMF which loaned Argentina $8 billion last week -- $8 billion that no doubt touched down in Argentina only long enough to be re-routed to New York at the speed of light. Argentina will continue to suffer. Default is in the air, as is the strongest argument for individual gold ownership we have seen since the Asian contagion. The Argentine citizen with a 30% gold reserve is not suffering the same anxiety as the individual who has stuck with the peso which now teeters precariously over the devaluation abyss. There is no question about that. The bankers and the IMF won't be crying for Argentina, they will squeeze everything they can out of it before cutting rope. . . . .Will the next stop for Argentina be the same as Indonesia's -- stringent economic controls, a police state and a society with one purpose -- to repay the international debt?? During the presidential campaign, President Bush hinted that something had to be done about the IMF and these policies. This would be a good time to make good on that promise. It's about time the Keynesian Bretton Woods system were chucked. It's outlived its usefulness and become a symbol of western exploitation and neo-colonialism.

-------------------------------

Page 6 (Money & Business) . . . . . . It's Time to Look Beyond Conventional Wisdom on the Dollar. . . . .by Jonathan Fuerbringer

"In the 27 years since the dollar was allowed to float freely in foreign exchange markets, the Morgan Stanley Capital International index of developed stock markets outside the United States and Canada has outperformed the S&P 500 in 13 of them. In 8 of those 13, a declining dollar was adding to American returns. 'In the world of statistics, that is a pretty strong pattern,' said James Paulson. . .at Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis. . . .For example . . .the local currency gain of 25.4% in 1985 jumped to 53% after the dollar decline was factored in."

MK Note: I have said from time to time that the best way to put the dollar in reverse would be to create a real rate of return on the euro forcing capital out of the dollar. This, in turn, would promote the borrowing of dollars to invest in euro based equities taking advantage of what the quote above suggests -- only with the added spice of leverage. This is what I mean by the dollar carry trade. That would leverage the euro higher and the dollar lower -- a goal which seems to be mutually preferable at the moment. That said, the EU is talking "fighting the recession" and lowering interest rates now -- a different tune than what it was signaling two weeks ago. If the ECB follows the Fed and lowers interest rates, then we'll know the policy is to inflate in tandem. Either scenario favors gold, though in the latter the dollar would deflect some of the interest in gold, and in the former we might have speculators drive gold into the stratosphere in short order.

- - - - - - - - - - ------------
Page 1 (Week in Review). . . . ..Is That a Bounce or a Thud We Just Heard?. . . .by Louis Uchetelle
"This time. . .banks are healthy and consumers have barely flagged in their spending. Teh slowdown that started in last year's third quarter came mainly as a result of a rapid cutback in business investment in machinery, computers, software, buildings and other tools used to produce goods and services. . . The private sector -- households and businesses -- is overloaded with debt. Worried consumers are gradually buying fewer autos and other big ticket items, despite the rate cuts, according to the University of Michigan's latest consumer confidence surveys. And profits keep shrinking, hardly an incentive to revive capital spending. 'We could be in for a long period of weak growth,' says Mr. [Edward] McElvey (Goldman Sachs & Co). "Not necessarily contraction, but a weak economy that bounces along the bottom."

MK Note: As the title to the article implies, the experts are in a state of confusion on this economy.

That's it for now, my friends. More reflections some other time.

slingshot

(08/26/2001; 18:00:15 MDT - Msg ID: 60300)

Surplus Money?

George Bush sitting at his desk in the White House taps the intercomn and says, Dick, do you have a minute?
A short time later Vice President comes into the room.
George comes right to the point. Dick, What happen to all that surplus we are supposed to have around here? The V.P. quickly replies,I don't know but it was here last night.

Well I am pokeing fun at the President and Vice President.
With all this talk about surplus money. If it could happen to them, It could really happen to me.
Got Gold?
Slingshot

R Powell

(08/26/2001; 18:45:03 MDT - Msg ID: 60301)

USAGOLD

With an average of 25,000 page hits per day times 365 days per year (open every day including holidays, thanks), we arrive at 9,125,000 visits. Even if we subtract the 325,000 hits/year from Gandalf and myself, that's still 8,800,000. Congratulations.
I think you have hit the nail on the head with "the experts are in a state of confusion on the economy". Uncertainty will continue along with interesting times.
Rich

Kodak

(08/26/2001; 19:22:59 MDT - Msg ID: 60302)

Greetings from Canada

Hi, everyone; After lurking at this sight for over 2 years
I thought it was time I said hello, and thank Michael for this great forum and express my gratitude to all the posters
who have educated me these many months. I live in the interior of British Columbia and i can tell you the new tarif that has been introduced on canadian lumber is having a huge effect. Several mills in my town have closed already,and job loss for B.C. is estimated to reach 20,000 by the end if this month. ouch!!!!! It looks like the slowdown that started last year in the U.S.A. is going to cause extreme slowdown in canada. Once again thanks to all especially Another/FOA/Trailguide I am your biggest fan. Believe it. Ha! Ha! Ha! (big smile).

Black Blade

(08/26/2001; 20:07:30 MDT - Msg ID: 60303)

Insider Buying Falls to Eight-Year Low

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010826/business_markets_stocks_insiders_dc.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Buying of shares by company executives in their own companies has dropped to the lowest level in almost eight years, according to Lancer Analytics.

Black Blade: Those in the know from the inside know that this economy is in Recession and they're not buying. This could be just a sign of things to come.

BR549

(08/26/2001; 20:18:58 MDT - Msg ID: 60304)

Cornfield Index-Today's Real POG $2,209.29/oz

http://federalreserve.gov/releases/H41/Current/
Cornfield County Reserve calculates the real price of gold today at $2,209.29/oz.

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF CONDITION OF ALL FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS Release Date: August 23, 2001 in MM=Millions of Dollars

Total Assets- $632,216MM
Less Total Liabilities- $617,359MM
Less Total CAPITAL ACCOUNTS- $14,857MM

Value of FRN's- $577,729MM
True Current Value Gold (261.5MM oz divided into $577,729MM) $2,209.29/oz.*

(OR) 261.5MM oz. of gold on hand x $2,209.29 real value of gold = $577,729.33MM is value-based currency of FRN's today

(OR) the dollar would be valued at 1 / 2,209 .oz of Gold

*Assumes current Fed numbers without taking into account some current liabilities and some current assets. Assumes if current FRN's were to be frozen and liquidated for Gold today. Does not account for the printing of additional dollars which will dilute the price per oz.

*Assumes current Fed numbers without taking into account some current liabilities and some current assets. Assumes if current FRN's were to be frozen and liquidated for Gold today. Does not account for the printing of additional dollars which will dilute the price per oz.

If gold had not been manipulated, then it MARKET VALUE IN FRN'S should be worth $2,200/oz. FRN today.

Comments Welcomed!

Regards from The Bank of Cornfield County

BR549

(08/26/2001; 20:28:27 MDT - Msg ID: 60305)

A few billion here.......

slingshot (msg#: 60300)-

The Pentagon lost a billion that they can't account for. I am sure the other agencies have lost more.

Dick and GW cleaning up the wild party of the 90's.

Kind'a reminds you a little of old Ev's famous quote.

Black Blade

(08/26/2001; 20:43:47 MDT - Msg ID: 60306)

Bankruptcy Boom Can Be Bust for Biz Docs

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010826/business_column_mergers_dc.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - From department store chain Montgomery Ward to online grocer Webvan, companies are going belly up in record numbers these days, jarring seasoned restructuring specialists who thought they'd seen it all. Never before have so many large companies filed for bankruptcy protection, listing billions of dollars in assets, studies show. And reorganization experts say they've never seen so many sell out at a fraction of their former market value or simply liquidate because of a lack of buyers.

The year 2001 already is a big year for bankruptcy filings. Companies with assets of $112 billion have landed in bankruptcy court in the first six months of 2001, 19 percent more than the whole of 2000, says Boston-based consultancy New Generation Research. That easily tops the 1991 recession-inspired then-record of $93.6 billion. And companies that fail are getting larger: The average amount of assets of companies that filed in the first six months reached a record $884 million, 64 percent more than the $539 million in average assets in the whole of last year, the group said.

Black Blade: A sign of the times (Recession). I look to see this to continue for the foreseeable future. It's the Recession ya know - preceded by rising oil and energy costs.

uponroof

(08/26/2001; 20:44:38 MDT - Msg ID: 60307)

sector

INCOMING!!I think that is the shortest post you've ever made....but maybe the one of the most interesting. Blowing them out of their 6 year, catacombed, rathole bunkers is quite a task. If we've been lobbing mortars at them till now, can't wait to see what heavy artillery does. Remember, these guys have gummint issued armour.....hope your using armour piercing shells. Can't wait my friend.

Speaking of gummints.....they made another terrible mistake last night. More stupidity from the inept buffoons that have turned gambling into a national pastime. They got the powerball numbers all wrong!....is anybody surprised!?...

and I gave them a hundred chances to get it right.
Tisk Tisk!

Netking

(08/26/2001; 20:54:08 MDT - Msg ID: 60308)

BR549 -POG

BR549 . . . that POG figure compares quite well with independent assessments placing it at $2,500. However the pendulum swings both ways yes, so we'll also see figures in the days ahead much greater than this. Also with the POG:POS ratio tracking at the below ground(deep storage!)inventories levels at 1:10 we'll place the POS at $250 for starters, we don't wanna be guilty of any "irrational exuberance" or anything over old relics.

Black Blade

(08/26/2001; 20:54:36 MDT - Msg ID: 60309)

Could Weaker Dollar Save Greenspan?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010826/business_column_stocks_week_dc_2.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Is there any way to solve the U.S. economic problems? Could Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill do lunch and hash out a dollar deal? What's happening is that the strong dollar, which few people were complaining about during the boom days, is now slaughtering the big U.S. multinational companies' export sales and working against the economy's rebound. Eight months into one of the most aggressive rate-cutting campaigns in history, Greenspan is still dealing with an economy that has almost stopped growing and a stock market still in the dog house, despite seven interest-rate cuts.

Black Blade: It's too late to reverse the trend. Time to gather up some PM insurance.

Black Blade

(08/26/2001; 21:09:11 MDT - Msg ID: 60310)

Oil prices rise on U.S. refining, supply concerns

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010824/l24428938_4.html
Snippit:

LONDON, Aug 24 (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed on Friday as refinery problems and lean inventories in the United States outweighed concerns over the impact of the global economic slowdown on petroleum demand. Benchmark Brent Blend crude oil futures for October delivery jumped 38 cents to $25.98 per barrel while U.S. light crude gained 32 cents to $26.95 per barrel in New York. Operator Citgo, a subsidiary of Venezuela's state oil company, said repairs to its refinery in Lemont, Illinois will take up to six months after a fire last week. Anglo-Dutch giant Shell also revealed on Friday that a crippled gasoline-producing unit at its Deer Park, Texas refinery will stay shut unexpectedly for another two weeks.

Black Blade: This will get more "interesting" as refineries are about to switch over to boutique fuels and the usual scheduled maintenance prior to the switch over. Add to this a few refinery closures and accidents due to some refineries not keeping up maintenance schedules and the OPEC oil production cuts starting next week and the costs of energy are about to surge higher again. These higher costs will be felt by US industry and the consumer. The Recession looks to get worse.

BR549

(08/26/2001; 21:09:13 MDT - Msg ID: 60311)

BR549 -POG

Netking (msg#: 60308)�

By the way I somehow neglected you as also one of the best of the Link Laureates (instead of Poet Laureates, get it?) who post that I always read and follow the link. Sorry, about that.

I agree that the true POG is probably valued at much, much more.

The POG figure that I calculated takes the Gold cert's, SDRs, and other paper Assets and offsets them against paper liabilities. In other words, it takes the outstanding FRN balance from all of the 12 Regions and simply divides the outstanding inventory of gold oz's that the Fed Reports to have and computes a value-based currency amount equivalent in FRN's. It is nice to know that some other calculations are in the same general value ballpark.

True accounting standards will pick holes in this theory. But since the Treasury doesn't use generally accepted accounting standards, I don't either.

Thanks for the feedback.

BR

Black Blade

(08/26/2001; 21:23:52 MDT - Msg ID: 60312)

US oil producers avoid hedges despite soft economy

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010824/n24320724.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK, Aug 24 (Reuters) - U.S. oil and gas producers are gambling that a global economic slowdown will not hurt their market too much, and are steering clear from locking in today's robust prices for future production, analysts said on Friday. Energy companies believe they are better off riding along with market swings rather than expose themselves to the wrath of shareholders if their forward sales turn out to have been at too low a value, analysts said. ``Oil companies have lost money hedging in the past and Wall Street has punished them for it,'' said Jay Saunders, analyst at Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown.

Black Blade: Not much of a gamble really. Prices are likely to be volatile and with OPEC as the "Wild Card." No need for hedging in the petroleum industry. Many of these companies are vertically integrated and do well no matter the price. Gold mining companies have much to learn as they are nothing more than "Rank Amateurs." Very few mining companies have figured this out and forward gold sales will come back to haunt them. Any wonder that companies like Barrick are scared to death of a rising POG and work to kill any rally?

Black Blade

(08/26/2001; 21:51:49 MDT - Msg ID: 60313)

Wave of High-Tech Failures Could Become Deluge

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010824/tc/tech_survivors_dc_1.html
Snippit:

PALO ALTO, Calif. (Reuters) - The dot-com storm isn't over. Even after waves of dot-com failures have washed ashore in recent months, many other struggling companies are heading toward the rocks. Think it was a rough summer in the technology industry? Just wait until the fall. `There are going to be a lot more companies failing,'' said Greg Roston, deputy director of the Institute for Economic Policy Research at Stanford University. ``There are a lot of money-losing companies that had said they were fully funded for a year, and now that year is coming to a close.'' While the bust that began in the dot-com sector more than a year ago continues to strike consumer Internet companies, it is also spreading to other areas of technology from software to telecom.

The demise of these companies tends to follow a pretty standard script. Their losses mount as they discover they had mistakenly counted on a robust economy and lavish consumer spending continuing forever. David Tice, a portfolio manager who has for years been forecasting a long and deep recession, sees a high-tech industry that is swimming in excess capacity. In just one dire sign he offers, Tice estimates that only about 390 million of the 650 million to 700 million cell phone handsets on the market this year will sell. ``There's much worse to come,'' said Tice. ``It starts to build on itself as more people get laid off, and it goes into a downward spiral.''

Black Blade: It will get worse. As a side note: I saw a report a few months ago that calculated the valuation of the cell phone industry. The valuations were based on sales that required that every man, woman, and child would own at least two cell phones. In a world where the cost of a cell phone could represent the annual income for many, that projection is a very tough call. In light of all this, gold looks bright and shiny.

BR549

(08/26/2001; 22:03:40 MDT - Msg ID: 60314)

The Internet and the failure of dot.com's

Black Blade (msg#: 60313)-

FWIW-The failure of dot.com's has to do with Duck and NYSE's and not to do with small business. Our art commercial site has been growing via word of mouth every month since it was invented in the mid-90's. If these dot.com's who rip their equity investor's off via CNBC public offerings roll over, so what?

The internet is great for specialists. I was looking for a radiator, since a deer committed suicide in front of my vintage Mercedes the other day. I found one for a savings of over a $100.00 from a mom and pop who didn't have to rent retail space.

Let big business dot.com's go belly up and rock on small business!

Netking

(08/26/2001; 23:28:13 MDT - Msg ID: 60315)

President Bush expresses concern about economy

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20010826/ts/bush_71.htmlSnippit:
President Bushadmitted Sunday that he is worried about the economy's "paltry" growth and, without making promises, assured steel company executives and workers that protecting domestic steel is a national security priority. . . But I must confess I'm worried about the fact that our manufacturing sector in our economy is a lot slower than I would hope. ... I worry about our citizens who work.''

He bemoaned the "paltry 1 percent" growth in the economy over the last 12 months and said his tax cuts were just part of a remedy that also includes debt repayment to ease interest rates and "a trade policy that's going to have a level playing field as its component."

Leo Gerard, president of the United Steelworkers of America labor union that worked last year to defeat Bush's election, welcomed him Sunday as the first U.S. president in 30 years to visit a steel mill.

Gerard also thanked Bush for launching an investigation of foreign steel imports, something the industry did not get from the Clinton administration . . . "

Gandalf the White

(08/26/2001; 23:44:45 MDT - Msg ID: 60316)

Sir Powell -- Do you have a Crystal Ball also ?

R Powell (08/26/01; 18:45:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 60301)
USAGOLD
With an average of 25,000 page hits per day times 365 days per year (open every day including holidays, thanks), we arrive at 9,125,000 visits. Even if we subtract the 325,000 hits/year from Gandalf and myself, that's still 8,800,000. Congratulations.
---
I also congratulate the work of MK and his assistants !
<;-)

Black Blade

(08/26/2001; 23:50:09 MDT - Msg ID: 60317)

U.S. Interested in Obtaining Natural Gas from Mexico

http://hoovnews.hoovers.com/fp.asp?layout=displaynews&doc_id=NR200108261180.3_49c1000bd660c237
Snippit:

Aug. 24--EDINBURG, Texas--The United States soon will need to import natural gas, and Mexico is the most logical source, a Dallas energy executive said Thursday at the U.S.-Mexico Border Summit here. Meanwhile, U.S. demand for natural gas will rise 50 percent in the next10 to 15 years for use by industry, for electricity generation and for residential use. Just replacing what we have, we can't do, Smith said.

But Mexico is a net importer of natural gas, mainly from the United States. Smith explained that's because of the lack of pipelines in Mexico and inadequate budget by the government-owned energy monopoly, Petroleos Mexicanos, for natural gas drilling.

The Invisible Hand

(08/27/2001; 01:52:55 MDT - Msg ID: 60318)

On WND - More than an ad

http://wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=24225Gold demand up despite slow economy
�
While gold has been historically seen as a hedge against volatile markets and a weakening dollar, more and more investors are now looking to gold for profit and protection for both savings and retirement accounts. In fact, gold is already up 10 percent since its recent low and continues to outperform 90 percent of stock equity funds this year.
While no one knows exactly how high gold prices will go in the next 12 to 18 months, one thing remains certain � many investors are now taking gold more seriously.

View Yesterday's Discussion.

The Invisible Hand

(08/27/2001; 02:07:25 MDT - Msg ID: 60319)

Oops!

Didn't see that the author of the article was the same as the author of the regular ad. I hope this doesn't contravene the Discussion Forum Guidelines.

Netking

(08/27/2001; 03:44:53 MDT - Msg ID: 60320)

PFLP Head Killed by Israel

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/news.php3?id=8747&PHPSESSID=74bcc5aaba4b17ecf3eaed92e9dd0867Snippit:
Israeli forces killed Abu Ali Mustapha, the acting leader of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) terrorist organization, late this morning. This marked the highest-ranking Palestinian political and military leader killed by Israel in its long war against terrorism in many years . . . Environment Minister Tzachi Hanegbi said that Israel's policy is totally one of self-defense, and that even if this could be considered an escalation, "the Palestinians would be well-advised to take the hint."

Netking

(08/27/2001; 04:05:57 MDT - Msg ID: 60321)

Iraq Says It Shoots Down U.S. Spy Plane

http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=topnews&StoryID=181554Meanwhile from Reuters:
"The Iraqi army said Monday its air defenses had shot down a U.S. reconnaissance plane while it was flying over southern Iraq . . . "This was an advanced plane which the Americans used during their aggression on Yugoslavia" (said Iraq)
There was no immediate confirmation from the United States

Netking

(08/27/2001; 05:00:29 MDT - Msg ID: 60322)

Fool's Gold

http://www.prudentbear.com/guest.htmSnippit: from Prudential Bear:

There is only one thing for investors to do today, and that is to sell all dollars, stocks and bonds, and to buy gold, and gold stocks instead. The market will force this very outcome, in our opinion, and indeed, it is already doing that� the market is fighting the Fed.

The sheer controversy of that statement alone is enough reason for us to get bullish on gold. But please don't try that smugness at home. The biggest reason of all, to buy gold, for real, is that everybody else says that they don't see any inflation either now or for the future. . .

William Dudley, Goldman Sach's chief US economist, last Wednesday:

The longer policymakers persist in their efforts to influence the exchange rate, the greater the danger of an unnecessarily sharp correction becomes. If the dollar began to slide, the credibility of policymakers would be called into question. This could lead to an even greater depreciation, as foreign investors demanded a bigger risk premium on US financial assets.

There are good reasons to suppose that Treasury comments have artificially supported the dollar's valuation somewhat�

...But while the strong dollar rhetoric may have worked to date, continued adherence to it is becoming risky. The fundamentals of the chronic large current account deficit point to a change in the exchange rate over the medium to long term. If the mantra is still in place when this happens, the loss of credibility could exacerbate the dollar's decline.

Policymakers should let market forces determine the dollar's value. Abandoning the strong dollar policy now, when the appetite for US assets is still strong, when policy is still credible, would probably lead to a somewhat weaker currency. But if the decline were controlled, there would be no great harm in that. The alternative - of waiting until the policy falls apart - will make the economic adjustment more painful than it needs to be.

Conclusion:
Like we said two weeks ago, Gold, Energies, and the Grains will lead the CRB out of its correction, paving the way for an inflation breakout. . .

CoBra(too)

(08/27/2001; 06:47:50 MDT - Msg ID: 60323)

Main Street meets the brick layers of Wall Street ... in D.C.?

Some snippets from a veteran Wall Street friend of mine, which are along the same lines as Netkings Prubear quotes.

Though, first this guy has been one of the first summa cum laude Laureates of Harvard after 1945 and answered a re-union summons by Summers with the outcry - hey, never again try - since I'd never mingle with the clever eco spinmeisters - ever! (ever the poet, huh, BR549)-

Snip from his latest letter to friends:
The change in the long-wave cycle has begun and we are moving from what has been a dozen years of "good outcomes", into that part of the cycle identified as the "nine years of trouble". The effects of this change will be gradual (my note - also may come in form of a panic, when the market 'machinations' of the past become public), but eventually discernable in all areas of human endeavor. ... trim your expectations and gird yourself for some major disappointments. ... we measure performance bvy gains made, and not by losses avoided ...

(So far so clear) followed by Economy - slowdown has been sharper than expected and I no longer disagree with those labeling it a recession. ... without some "figure cooking" (my take: even Main Street would have come to the conclusion by now) Interest Rates-(his thoughts seem similar to K. Richebaecher here and Currencies - mostly disagree, though did so for some years now - as I have to add to my detriment).
GOLD: (and that's interesting) - feels that one of the principal reasons for the $-reserve currency was that the country's reserve assets included one of the largest gold reserves among all nations (and all other well discussed reasons for the $ supremacy- goes on to discuss James Turk and mostly agrees a large part of US gold being compromised). ... Ex-president Reagan once made the observation that no great nation ever remained great when it had run out of gold. ... and more news as the matter of Reg. Howe vs the BIS, et al will be forthcoming shortly.

... and much more about the SM's, where I mostly disagree, though that's more my nature than reasonable thought, as I'm still caught (up) in a black and white (not Scholes, mind thee) global perspective, since the more colors seem to disagree with my pedigree, effective(ly).

see u cb2

Hello, MK, great stuff on your Sunday remedies ... g.a. please ...

BR549

(08/27/2001; 07:04:37 MDT - Msg ID: 60324)

The Federal Reserve of NY, ESF, Treasury, foreign exchange, intervention, swaps, warehousing, FOMC, foreign currency sales & repurchases

http://www.newyorkfed.org/pihome/fedpoint/fed14.html
"ESF operations are conducted through the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its capacity as fiscal agent for the Treasury. The New York Fed, which executes foreign operations on behalf of the Federal Reserve System and the Treasury, acts as an intermediary for the parties involved when the ESF provides short-term financing to foreign governments. However, it neither guarantees, nor profits from, the loans.

Several times each day, the foreign exchange trading desk of the New York Fed provides current information on market conditions to the Treasury. Whenever necessary, the trading desk buys or sells foreign currencies on behalf of the Treasury, through the ESF, for intervention purposes. Treasury and Federal Reserve foreign exchange operations are closely coordinated and typically are conducted jointly. Operations on behalf of the Treasury are made under the legal authority of the Secretary of the Treasury and those for the Federal Reserve System under the legal authority of the Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank's policy-making group. The ESF does not provide financing to the Federal Reserve System for foreign exchange operations. Rather, the Federal Reserve participates with its own funds. The Treasury reimburses the New York Fed for expenses incurred in carrying out Treasury actions.

Since 1963, the Federal Reserve occasionally engaged in "warehousing" transactions with the ESF. In warehousing a transaction, the ESF sells foreign currencies to the Federal Reserve for dollars and simultaneously arranges to repurchase them, typically within a year. The dollars are immediately credited to the Treasury's account at the New York Fed, and the Federal Reserve invests the warehoused foreign currency, separate from its regular accounts, to earn a market rate of return. Any effect warehousing has on domestic bank reserves is offset by open market operations.

ESF accounts and activities are subject to Congressional oversight. The Treasury provides monthly reports on U.S. intervention activities and a monthly financial statement of the ESF to Congress on a confidential basis. In addition, the quarterly report to Congress by the New York Fed's manager of foreign operations, covering Treasury and Federal Reserve foreign exchange operations, is issued publicly by the New York Fed."

BR549-I have been unable to locate this ESF report to Congress to date. Maybe the "confidential basis" negates the public's right to know. Warehousing is done by the NY Fed as an agent for the Secretary of the Treasury and includes SWAPS of currency (and Gold?). I have been unable to find anything on the NY Fed's Manager of foreign exchange operations. There is a definite link between the FOMC, Treasury, and foreign currencies (gold) used as collateral for short term loans (1 year swaps with guaranteed buy-backs). It looks as all of these operations are only reported quarterly and secretly on a need to know basis to Congress.

Chris Powell-Does GATA have this latest ESF Report to Congress?

Belgian

(08/27/2001; 07:33:24 MDT - Msg ID: 60325)

Reflecting on the Gold - Labyrinth...as a student !

20 days without USAGOLD on a modest French castle and plenty of time to look again at * Gold *, from a different angle. 140.000 tonnes aboveground Gold valued with 1 Trillion of green paper. And these 1 Trillion US$ in perspective of 75 million Barrils of crude oil, vaporized per day. Crude oil as source of energy but much more important as the vital and unique source for at least 5.000 (chemical) derivates ! 1 Trillion US$ against a global GDP of 40 Trillion (actual) US$.
A, from now on, declining amount of newly mined Gold, yearly added to the total volume of 140.000 tonnes. 2.500 tonnes / year at today's valuation in perspective with yearly added DEBT (growth)...etc...etc...Obscene dis-proportions.

>>> GOLD IS UNBELIEVABLY CHEAP >>> I've come to realize the tremendous power of Gold ! How is it possible that this ABSOLUTE RULER (gold) is valued at its ordinarry lowest production cost ? Only two extreme opposite, intuitive, answers are possible : Gold is totally worthless and insignificant or Gold is the most dangerous "absolutist" on earth ! As soon as the Gold-Emperor awakes from the past hibernation...we will realize how absolutely powerfull its impact will be on everything. Gold's recent past (from '71) and present valuation is so absurd that there can only be one justification for it. Too dangerous toy for occasional adventurists. The Gold-Rulers don't mind, lilliputans, to accumulate physical gold for possesion. But it is absolute forbidden stuff for would-be Giants and temporary, occasional, succesfull fiat generators, who want to have a Gold-play. The real Gold-Rulers can be no other than "the" exclusive Arabian oils.

So many other Private Powers, could easely, "cartel" (+ hedge) and have a temporary gold-corner-play. They don't !
The absolute silence and secrecy on Gold together with the absurd valuation is absolute evidence of something very,very,very BIG ! Nobody is allowed to play and fool around with *GOLD*. Our Guides here, are the only no-nonsense, visionairs on Gold. The gold-silence-secrecy, can only be maintained, through, permanent ridiculing Gold's valuation and off radar low flight. This, as to keep any cornering candidates at a safe distance.

The above reflexions are not based on our Guide's thougths. Price and time behaviour of Gold for the past 30 years are absolutely artificial...non commodity and a combination of political and private (oil) management ! A distant vieuw on a 30 year POO chart with its horizontal price range, is indicating a relationship with Gold. The emperor (gold) and his elite troops (Arab oils) have geopolitically manoeuvered in the US$ ocean. Gold and Oil are in mutation. They are both so absolutely powerfull that they can act as a disciplined global duo fully matured. They don't want to frighten the global economy. They don't want to abuse their absolute power. But they don't want to be part of any bankruptcy. With the US$ if possible, without the US$ if necessary. Gold and Oil act as responsible global parents who don't want to frighten their children as to keep them in optimal productive condition. So far, so good !

USAGOLD

(08/27/2001; 08:31:43 MDT - Msg ID: 60326)

Today's Commentary & Review. . .

Note: Note: If you would like to receive an information packet on gold (how to buy it -- our products and services) and a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views, please go to the link above. For those seeking a higher level of understanding with respect to the gold market, many of the concepts addressed briefly below are covered in detail in our upcoming 32-page Quarterly Review. Please go to the link above to register for your packet.

Having problems with the Fetch function this morning, so you'll have trouble getting into the Commentary & Review until Randy figures out what the problem is. Thanks for your patience, and after all the nice things I said about the internet yesterday.

Thanks for your kind comments, Rich and Gandalf. . . .

In Brief: Gold tracked sideways to start the week. We'll know more about where the economy is headed as the week progresses. Tuesday the Consumer Confidence report is released. Wednesday we get GDP and Friday Factory Orders will be reported along with the Michigan Sentiment index. A number of analysts came out over the past week in favor of gold ownership. One notable report from the BBC highlighted rumors of a major hedge fund on the ropes. Reminiscent of the problems with Long Term Capital Management a few years back, one international investment fund warned that the U.S. stock market would be the most vulnerable if this un-named hedge fund collapsed. John H Mesrobian at Constantinople Advisers said investors "should be bailing out of the US market, where the bubble would be likely to burst first, and should be selling the dollar and buying the euro, and gold." Similarly widely-followed Hong Kong investment advisor, Marc Faber has come out in favor of gold ownership. "The gold bear market is more than 20 years old and has either already ended or is at least approaching its end, as more and more investors will come to share my view that something simply doesn't add up in the present monetary system (which isn't really a system) and that one day the ownership of a store of value that is totally uncorrelated to financial assets will be a highly rewarding investment. Thus, I urge our readers to gradually accumulate physical gold." Mr. Faber's complete thinking on the current economy and gold is available at our Gilded Opinion section (Please go to the link above.) And the London Sunday Times yesterday told its readers, "As an investment, the metal may have been horribly out of fashion for the past decade, but with world economies continuing to slide, gold could be about to stage a revival. . . [S]ome metals analysts believe it could soon break through the $300 barrier and climb to $350. It seems that sentiment is changing in gold's favor.
That's its for today, fellow goldmeisters. More in a day or two. MK

USAGOLD

(08/27/2001; 08:32:48 MDT - Msg ID: 60327)

Today's Commentary & Review. . .

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.htmlNote: Note: If you would like to receive an information packet on gold (how to buy it -- our products and services) and a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views, please go to the link above. For those seeking a higher level of understanding with respect to the gold market, many of the concepts addressed briefly below are covered in detail in our upcoming 32-page Quarterly Review. Please go to the link above to register for your packet.

Having problems with the Fetch function this morning, so you'll have trouble getting into the Commentary & Review until Randy figures out what the problem is. Thanks for your patience, and after all the nice things I said about the internet yesterday.

Thanks for your kind comments, Rich and Gandalf. . . .

In Brief: Gold tracked sideways to start the week. We'll know more about where the economy is headed as the week progresses. Tuesday the Consumer Confidence report is released. Wednesday we get GDP and Friday Factory Orders will be reported along with the Michigan Sentiment index. A number of analysts came out over the past week in favor of gold ownership. One notable report from the BBC highlighted rumors of a major hedge fund on the ropes. Reminiscent of the problems with Long Term Capital Management a few years back, one international investment fund warned that the U.S. stock market would be the most vulnerable if this un-named hedge fund collapsed. John H Mesrobian at Constantinople Advisers said investors "should be bailing out of the US market, where the bubble would be likely to burst first, and should be selling the dollar and buying the euro, and gold." Similarly widely-followed Hong Kong investment advisor, Marc Faber has come out in favor of gold ownership. "The gold bear market is more than 20 years old and has either already ended or is at least approaching its end, as more and more investors will come to share my view that something simply doesn't add up in the present monetary system (which isn't really a system) and that one day the ownership of a store of value that is totally uncorrelated to financial assets will be a highly rewarding investment. Thus, I urge our readers to gradually accumulate physical gold." Mr. Faber's complete thinking on the current economy and gold is available at our Gilded Opinion section (Please go to the link above.) And the London Sunday Times yesterday told its readers, "As an investment, the metal may have been horribly out of fashion for the past decade, but with world economies continuing to slide, gold could be about to stage a revival. . . [S]ome metals analysts believe it could soon break through the $300 barrier and climb to $350. It seems that sentiment is changing in gold's favor.
That's its for today, fellow goldmeisters. More in a day or two. MK

Belgian

(08/27/2001; 09:06:16 MDT - Msg ID: 60328)

Fragments

- Korea abolishes VAT (10%) on Physical Gold ! Isn't this very significant fellow students ? But why doesn't the Korean gvnmt. says, why they are abolishing it ? Who inspires who : China <> Korea ! Encouragement to hold gold.

- Gold-silence and secrecy : if you realy don't want to say something on the citizen's gold...we know enough ! Gold is very,very,very important.

- To *TRADE* is fun and to *HOLD* is dull. Let's do the contrarian.

- Spread the TG's *THOUGHTS* everywhere you go on the net, and make it 50.000 a day for CPM !

- Who will be the first to ship oil for euro's ? Northsea-oil / Arabian-oil / other ?

- Tobin Tax on speculative currency-trades. Why are these Tax collectors doing only half the job and forget about *GOLD* as the ultimate International Economics Equalizer ?
Anti Globalization activists, please, have a look at what Gold can do for your cause !

- Some "signals" as to answer the Leigh "when" question :

>>> POO abandons the 30 yrs horizontal price range of 10$-35$.
>>> POG jumps trough the 360$ fundamental and technical (interpretation) ceiling.
>>> euro starts its uptrend against the $, without economic justification. Me thinks it is in progress ($/�-chart-?)
>>> A signal from an official gold-buyer, any goldbuyer. Or any official Gold-statement.
>>> When Trading (leveraging) goes out and Holding comes back into fashion (bottoming)(LBMA-papervolume steady decline).
>>> When the US-Media can't but report on �-strength and $-weakness.
>>> A crack in the Anglo-American alliance (UK-Japan-South America)(?) Anti dollar and pro euro.
>>> When the dollar-index starts its C-leg down in the ABC pattern from 1985.

What would happen if a Gold-blessed country like South Africa, should decide to sell its gold for euro's from 1/1/2002, together with a positive EMU referendum in the UK ? The permanent-unstoppable, decline of the Rand, could be a reasonable excuse to leave the dollar shelter.
Why aren't Northsea oil-producers, not giving an euro-support signal with oil for euro's ? And why did no other oil producers ever replaced their exported oil with gold ?
Even if there was no euro in sight...they surely knew that the $ got more and more debt loaded.
Once gold and oil are mined and drilled...nothing is left to generate new fiat. Most of oil and gold-dollars have been consumed and not mutated in other fiat generators.
Why hasn't the gold example of the Arabian oil Giants, been copied by others ? I have a problem here.

CoBra(too)

(08/27/2001; 09:25:33 MDT - Msg ID: 60329)

@ USAGOLD - c.o. MK - Re James Turk -

As it may be premature to consider all the evidence amassed against most of the US Gold being unencumbered, the latest indications seem to point in the direction of "The Emperor has no Clothes".
... and as the welfare state(s) start to admit that they might have to omit, or better curb certain promises as to the benefit of paid up participations in pension and health care plans, I respectfully submit to the scam and will be working - as long as I can.
... and as it seems, the socialistic, though golden dreams of ever appreciating realms of social market economy, are becoming rapidly the capitalists worst enemy.

... as globalisation, a euphemism for colonization under the pretext of a synthetic paper monetary system - controlled by slow burn - though as the turn of events may preceed the predictable ends of the monetary spree - as all see the consumerism is just a schi'ism, forfeiting the true and blue characteris'm of capitalis'm.

...Savings, the only capital to enhance productivity in the long run - seems to be all gone - though in perceived "new era's" you can tout as long as Li'l Joe believes the mantra of Santa - as the thieves (of the old admin)have all gone to retirement, leaving the boomers spent ... to their end. Repent? - No, heck, the purgatory was sent to the new admin ... which took a respiratory 4 weeks of vacation to BBQ the occasion with a burnt equation of a Texas style re-animation of long gone(long horns, even)burnt steaks, without, as it seems a solution to the equilibrium or any substitution to a fair (economic) game, or medium to rare of the same!

Shame, why Texas when Las Vegas is closer to the Hearts of Kings, where venture capital was as good as it was in the Dot.Com(munist) Spins, as I recall exuberant Al, had his reservations - on a black jack table of recrimination? -
just before LTCM, a missile, going astray for a while, so with a smile AG just doubled up!

Try it again - Uncle Sam! ... cb2 ... and cheers to all o'you ...

SteveH

(08/27/2001; 09:34:50 MDT - Msg ID: 60330)

So, exactly where does one find the original of this?

www.kitco.comDate: Mon Aug 27 2001 11:01
permabear (From K2 ---WOW!) ID#8350:
Copyright � 2000 permabear/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Date: Mon Aug 27 2001 10:45
ANOTHER ( LATE THOUGHTS! ) ID#260332:
-
Climactic developments engulf us! Look toward the Middle East. Soon the oil will be locked in combat with the dollar! How better than to strike the dollar in it�s weak underbelly? Soon all sales of oil will be done in: EUROs! All "new" sales of "external reserve gold" will soon be done in: EUROs! They will have little use to sell gold for US$ reserves as they will have "much of that currency" already.

As events progress, all/most "external gold reserves" of the "Euro Group Countries" will move towards the ECB and be settled in Euros. As gold will always be traded and denominated in the world currency that settles oil sales. Even Swiss gold will be sold to European Central Bank ( ECB ) for Euros for defense against the falling dollar. Yes, most dollar derivatives will fail as "worldwide gold trading in US$" stops from "contract default"! Will the dollar be weak in gold? Indeed, it may not exist as a market for gold!

The large gold backing for the Euro and the "much greater" gold reserves for the individual countries of the Euro, is a direct result from observations of gold buying by oil! If it is well known by the BIS that a move by oil to bring crude to $10.00 US, is a precursor to an "new world oil currency", then it is well known to the Euro makers! Gold will be managed back to a range of $320/$360 with much hope for participation of Euro as "the" "currency/gold" payment for oil. My knowledge is that the new range will bring a breakup to the London operation, with the ensuing run by gold to infinity.

One should grasp that "today, your wealth, is not what your currency say it is"! In this world, paper currency is for trade, only! It is for the buying, selling, earning and paying, not for knowing the value of your family holdings! Know this, "the printers of paper do never tell the owner that the money has less value, that judgment is reserved for the person you offer that currency to"! Again, I ask, how can we know a true value for our assets, when they are known only in currency that finds it's worth, as in the exchange rate for another currency?

Some say, "I hold investments of great increase these past years, and am much ahead of the inflation, if it should come". I say, "your investments, worldwide, have moved little, as it has been the currencies that denominate your assets, that fall a great deal". The price inflation that comes, it is larger than your vision can see! Your past, holds little of knowing value outside of currencies, this does block the good view!

It is a well known, considered problem that, if not fixed, will take the "Western World" back in time many years. Perhaps, luxury will be lost, and many will live as "third world countries". Some may find this a "better outcome" in life? However: Our world economic system does survive many problems. Humankind must battle the war and distrust with great intensity. Always, we find, it is the honest person of simple means that leads the lost! These same citizens will find a security for the future that comes from the past. History has shown the physical gold does hold true against all odds.

We watch the approach of this change, and discuss it, together, yes? It will truly be "a gold market as none before".

But in time, "that too will pass as swift clouds on a moon less night". I will again be gone for a time.

Thank You

Cavan Man

(08/27/2001; 09:38:08 MDT - Msg ID: 60331)

@CB (too)

And, you must know that "Texas Chili" has no beans. I waas waiting for you to remark in some fashion, "where's the beef"?!

lamprey_65

(08/27/2001; 09:49:40 MDT - Msg ID: 60332)

LTCM - A look back...

I spent the weekend panning for gold in the White Mountains of New Hampshire (with some success) and reading an article a friend passed on to me from the November 16th, 1998 edition of the Wall Street Journal. The subject of the article - Long-Term Capital Management. The article is a MUST read...very illuminating on several levels. Because it was written just weeks after the LTCM situation became common knowledge, I wonder if this original article might be more revealing than other, possibly spin-affected expos�s. There are a few passages I find fascinating and thought I'd share here. I remember Bill Murphy's missives concerning the possibility of LTCM being significantly short gold when I read the following....

The Wall Street Journal
by Wall Street Journal Staff Reporters Michael Siconlfi, Anita Raghavan and Mitchell Pacelle

P. A1 (continued on pp. A18-A19)

All Bets Are Off: How the Salesmanship And Brainpower failed At Long-Term Capital
---
Investors Clamored to Get in, While Partners Debated Their Ever-Greater Risks
---
On the Payroll, 25 Ph.D.s

On selling the idea of LTCM to investors...

"The pitch started to click better overseas. Dresdner Bank AG, after repeated visits by LTCM partners, signed up. The Bank of Italy's foreign-exchange office invested $100 million, and later lent $150 million. International banker Edmund Safra got in through a joint venture between his Republic New York Corp. and Safra Republic Holdings SA, a private banking affiliate. His Swiss bankers enthusiastically pitched the fund to European millionares."

---Hmm, the now deceased Safra involved - one of the world's biggest and well-known bullion traders. Also, funny that the Swiss decided to sell all that gold, heh? --

"When asked about the downside, they would presciently tell investors of one of the the biggest, and rarest, risks of all: a sudden flight to supersafe securities (like Treasury bonds) that could demolish their bets in riskier transactions".

---Just "securities"?...read on --

"In mid-August, Russia abrubtly defaulted on part of its debt and let the ruble fall, triggering flight by investors from all types of risk into safe investments. That devastated some of LTCM's bets, leading to the huge losses of Aug. 21st."

---..."safe investments"... Could that have included physical Gold, the safest of the safe? ---

CoBra(too)

(08/27/2001; 10:53:07 MDT - Msg ID: 60333)

CM - Where's the Beef ?

I've got no beef ...
just the sorrow of the grower
of chili, peppers and a flower (not flour)
though I've got a little beans
as I'm on my way to New Orleans.
- cu2?

Cavan Man

(08/27/2001; 10:59:20 MDT - Msg ID: 60334)

Hello CB2

Jambalya, crawfish pie,....gonnna have a good time down on the bayou. J'aime etouffee. Treat you to a Tullamore Dew (or two).

Cavan Man

(08/27/2001; 11:02:46 MDT - Msg ID: 60335)

Robbing Peter to pay Paul?

See story at Drudge siteUS is borrowing from the SS fund to the tune of $9bn in fiscal 2001. In 401K's and SS do we trust?

uponroof

(08/27/2001; 12:23:01 MDT - Msg ID: 60336)

Jim Rogers email on gold

Good Afternoon all,

Sent Jim Rogers an email question on gold. He is currently down in Argentina as part of his 3 year 'driving around the world tour'. My question was written with an intentionally negative slant. I wanted to see how he would respond.
*********************************************************

Greetings Jim,

Congrats on doing your own thing. Time is the most important commodity which can't be manipulated or leveraged. Wish I had the stones to pack up and go before I'm too old to enjoy it.

Question on GOLD. This looks like to me the last dance for gold. All the money in the world is antied up against it. Can't see how it can ever come to it's previous importance after being so bastardized for so long by so many people. I know you like to do whatever the Central Banks aren't doing, but even with gold? Any thoughts on the barbaric relic? I am a collector of bullion and coins.

Thanks....and watch out for those el pacas...like deer, they can go through your windshield if you hit them hard enough.

CHEERS!
uponroof

uponroof,
Thanks for writing.

I am very bullish on natural resources. I own some gold as an insurance policy, but my way to play gold is by waiting. I suspect the central bankers will cause an old fashioned selling panic some day. IF SO, I hope I am brave/solvent/alert enough to jump in and buy. If it does not happen that way, I will miss the move [except for the bit I own and my other natural resources].

Hope you can ride with us on our web site.

Jim Rogers
e-mail jim@jimrogers.com
web page www.jimrogers.com
************************************************************

So, Jim Rogers is waiting for an old fashioned selling panic.

Hummmmmmm......

Aren't we in one now, that's not being advertised? Seems to me there is already a panic of sorts (to sell gold) in order to keep POG down. CB's are quietly moving gold to and fro to keep any visible panic from surfacing, IMHO. I guess Jim is waiting for a more obvious panic.
**********************************************************

Also, from 'The American Advisor'....

Soros has started a fund to buy European Real Estate, which is a clear bet against the dollar.

Wayne Angell says we have a 15% chance of an 'economic catastrophe' if significant real estate devaluation occurrs.

Robert Novack is in todays Washington Post calling for a gold/commodities link to the dollar.
***********************************************************

lamprey_65..... did you use a pan, detector or did you really step it up and use one of those mini dredges. Check this link: http://www.goldmetaldetector.com/index.html

btw-Thanks for that look back via the WSJ. Suggest (if you haven't already) read Roger Lowenstein's 'When Genius Failed' a behind the scenes look at all the players in this debacle. Soros, Buffet, Corzine, Meriwether, McDonough, etc etc. are all in this. The reader is treated to the 'behind the scenes' paralyzing crisis that those in power went through. It reads like a novel.

Cavan Man

(08/27/2001; 13:21:15 MDT - Msg ID: 60337)

uponroof

Wasn't $255 a selling panic of sorts?

Usul

(08/27/2001; 13:31:33 MDT - Msg ID: 60338)

SteveH

Truly... Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery... or to be more precise "Imitation is the sincerest flattery"
Charles Caleb Colton
(1780-1832): The Lacon

BR549

(08/27/2001; 13:36:25 MDT - Msg ID: 60339)

On the Road Again

uponroof (msg#: 60336)

uponroof to JR-"Congrats on doing your own thing. Time is the most important commodity which can't be manipulated or leveraged. Wish I had the stones to pack up and go before I'm too old to enjoy it."

We sold our 4,200 square foot house in Riverside on the North side of Atlanta, put our stuff in storage, bought a motorhome and hit the road. We went North to Chicago, across the U.S. to the Northeast corner of the West, through all of the State parks to Washington State, down the West Coast and back though the Western States to Florida where we bought a new house.

If you need a little push from somebody---DO IT! Pack up and just do it.

I am in the process of "fixing up" my Motor Home for another little venture through Santa Fe & Colorado and then to a little artist colony town in CA. Planned lift off is Sept. 15th.

I hope to see you on the road.

Regards,

BR549

escapethematrix

(08/27/2001; 13:40:49 MDT - Msg ID: 60340)

Chirac wants EU constitution in 2004

PARIS, Aug 27 (AFP) -
President Jacques Chirac said Monday that a constitution for the European Union should be in force in 2004.
Recalling that he had proposed the fundamental charter during a visit to Germany last year, Chirac said: "I note with interest that this idea, which I put forward, is making headway.
"Let us work to ensure it comes to light in 2004," he told senior diplomats

site steward

(08/27/2001; 13:41:22 MDT - Msg ID: 60341)

Make a point to visit a friend today...everyday.

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/buckler.htmlOver the weekend, MK mentioned our friend Bill Buckler (The Privateer). You'll want to give yourself an introduction to the good quality of his thoughts on gold and money right here, just two doors down the hallway...

(Click the URL above)

R

uponroof

(08/27/2001; 13:53:08 MDT - Msg ID: 60342)

Cavan Man

I guess that's what makes him a genius.

You and I are wondering how to define "panic" while he is traveling around the world in a sawed off benz with a young female friend. Let's face it.....gold will take off after he is back, fresh from the trip, and has just bought in.

Thanks

uponroof

(08/27/2001; 14:08:17 MDT - Msg ID: 60343)

Junior Samples and his deisel powered BR549er ......WHOOOOOOSH!

Mister Bee-Are,

Wanderlust is something very dear to my heart. At 17 I thumbed it out to California. No possessions, no money, no worries. There is no doubt in my mind that is thee best way to experience America. Can't do that today, too many nuts out there. Now I have a wife, teenagers, a bidness and 'responsibilities'. Perhaps when kids are grown and bidness is sold we will pass on the highway. Till then, watch out for those firestone tires.

Netking

(08/27/2001; 14:38:50 MDT - Msg ID: 60344)

Fresh signs of US slowdown

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1512000/1512047.stmSnippit:
"More signs of the slowdown in the US economy were evident on Monday with house sales falling and a downbeat jobs survey. Sales of non-new homes fell quicker than expected during July, suggesting the economic slowdown is finally beginning hit the consumer. . ."

BR549

(08/27/2001; 14:45:59 MDT - Msg ID: 60345)

Quote of the day from PowerBall Winner on CNBC

"There is a God. The day that I won is the day my ex-wife got remarried at 4:00 O�clock." he said with a BIG SMILE

BR549

(08/27/2001; 16:00:12 MDT - Msg ID: 60346)

An Educational Series on Gold and Money

Bill Buckler (The Privateer)-

The best essay that I have ever read on money. I am trying to figure out what you have left out. Without much success, I might add.

That catch-all Fed phrase "legal tender" (unfortunately for our citizens) may never be added to gold backed value-based currencies in the U.S.

"An Educational Series on Gold and Money" is required reading for anyone who thinks they know what money is and whether gold is money.

turkey hunter

(08/27/2001; 18:09:02 MDT - Msg ID: 60347)

Warren Buffet on the economy From NewsMax Aug 27th

Buffett: Eight Years of Economic 'Hangover'
NewsMax Wires Monday, Aug. 27, 2001
The most successful stock investor ever says the slowdown in the U.S. economy will last for eight more years.
Suggesting an economic stagnation of biblical proportions, Warren Buffett has told executives affiliated with companies owned or controlled by his Berkshire Hathaway investment company that they must batten down the hatches and prepare for bad times ahead.

The report in this week's Business Week magazine quotes one investor as saying that Buffett thinks a long-term "hangover" from the high-flying '90s will continue for years.

Buffett had been a persistent critic of the technology boom that dominated the '90s. Buffett invests in old-line brick-and-mortar companies.

Last year, Berkshire Hathaway stock rose 27 percent while the Nasdaq composite index tumbled a record-breaking 39 percent. End.

Turkey Hunter: I wonder if that's way he bought all that silver?

lamprey_65

(08/27/2001; 18:35:52 MDT - Msg ID: 60348)

uponroof

I used my pan...planning on picking up a metal detector specifically designed for nugget shooting next year. There is gold to be found in New England if you know where and how to look and IF you have the persistance. Cleaned out one nice little spot this summer...my first real find.

Lots of nice garnets too...not worth much but awfully pretty!

lamprey_65

(08/27/2001; 18:38:49 MDT - Msg ID: 60349)

Gold selling panic...

I believe we've already had our panic in gold...imho the bottom was put in after the BOE announcement in '99.

Gold Trail Update

(08/27/2001; 19:00:07 MDT - Msg ID: 60350)

The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated

The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.

Gold Trail Update

(08/27/2001; 19:22:44 MDT - Msg ID: 60351)

The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated

The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.

uponroof

(08/27/2001; 19:46:17 MDT - Msg ID: 60352)

GATA IS MAINSTREAM.....get use to it

Not too long ago a certain metals analyst by the name of Leonard Kaplan, who provides 'Prospector Asset Management' featured on thebulliondesk web site, said something of the following..."we should thank GATA for providing humor in this very dismal market".

Very funny Mr. Kaplan.

This was a cheap shot from a smug longtime metals market 'insider analyst' who is apparently so 'inside' that he stopped looking 'outside' of the spoon fed menu. Call it lazy, call it stupid. Time to get your head out, from inside of your ass Kaplan. It's blind 'insiders' like you that have cost this market credibility and it's investors money.

Mr Kaplan, who seeks work from the John Hathaways of the world, perhaps wishes he never said that.

It's OK Mr. Kaplan A nice retractment, complete with the standard 'only a grave misunderstanding' excuse will do.
***********************************************************

Hathaway Bolsters GATA's Credibility

Le Metropole Members,

( BW)(TX-GATA) ``Gold as Theatre'' by Tocqueville's
Hathaway Bolsters GATA's Credibility

Business Editors

DALLAS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug. 27, 2001--Gold fund manager John Hathaway has endorsed the findings of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) that the price of gold is being suppressed by the U.S. government. Hathaway's endorsement came in a "press release" dated August 23 and titled "Gold as Theater," posted at the Internet site of the Tocqueville Funds:

http://www.tocquevillefunds.com/press/archives.php?id=22

Hathaway manages the Tocqueville Gold Fund.

GATA Chairman Bill Murphy welcomed Hathaway's statement. "It enhances GATA's credibility immensely,"
Murphy said. "John Hathaway may be the most respected gold fund manager in the world. Now that he has been persuaded that the U.S. government is rigging the gold market, others may be persuaded too. And just as important, GATA may be closer to showing the world that there isn't a surplus of gold but a great shortage disguised only by massive central bank leasing and purposely deceptive gold swapping operations."

In "Gold as Theater," Hathaway writes: "There is growing body of credible evidence that the U.S. government and others may have been manipulating the metal price for some time. A few years ago such claims were unsubstantiated and lacked credibility, but recently some weighty evidence is
beginning to accumulate. Credit for the heavy lifting on discovery of possible price-fixing activity goes to Bill Murphy, Reginald Howe, James Turk, and their associates. A useful source to learn more are the two Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Web sites: www.lemetropolecafe.com and www.gata.org.

"The Exchange Stabilization Fund, controlled by the U.S. Treasury and essentially unaccountable to Congress or the American people, appears to be a key instrument for intervention. It appears that U.S. gold reserves have been swapped or in some way encumbered. The basis for this supposition can be found in the ESF financial statements themselves.

"According to James Turk in his Freemarket Gold & Money Report (www.fgmr.com) dated August 13, 2001, SDR
Certificates held by the ESF declined from a peak level
of 10.2 billion to 2.2 billion as of year end 2000. A precipitous decline from 9.2 billion as of year-end 1998 to current levels coincided with an accelerated decline in the gold price that began in May 1999 (the announcement of British gold auction) and the breakout of the trade-weighted dollar index from a multi-year trading range.

"If the U.S. and other governments have been actively involved in manipulating the gold market, there is far
greater upside potential for the gold price than I had previously imagined. The U.S. government may have already expended considerable resources to hold the gold price in check. Public, press, and congressional scrutiny of these matters should commence in earnest."

GATA Chairman Murphy notes that GATA consultant Reginald H. Howe has located an academic essay co-authored by Lawrence Summers, former U.S. treasury secretary and incoming president of Harvard University. The article, "Gibson's Paradox and the Gold Standard," was published in June 1988 in the Journal of Political Economy. In this essay Summers observed that in a "truly free market gold prices will move inversely to real long-term rates, falling when rates rise and rising when they fall."

But, as Howe writes at www.GoldenSextant.com about the Summers essay:

"This relationship ended after 1995 during Summers' tenure at the Treasury Department. During this period, as real interest rates (30-year T-bond less the CPI rate) have declined from the 4 percent level to near 2 percent, but gold prices have fallen from $400/oz. to around $270 rather than rising toward the $500 level as Gibson's paradox and the model of it constructed by Summers indicates they should have." Howe goes on to observe "The low real long-term interest rates of the past few years may have been engineered with far more sophistication than those of a generation ago, including the coordinated and heavy use of both gold and interest rate derivatives."

Howe's observations are supported by the work of GATA consultant Mike Bolser in a report entitled, "Preemptive
Selling in COMEX Gold," which can be viewed at:

http://www.goldensextant.com/commentaryBA.html
#anchor65565

Bolser notes a standard deviation selling event on Comex in 1996 that "would be expected to happen at random only once in 833 years of Comex activity (10,000 periods)." Bolser goes on to say: "The implications of such an event are ominous. These extreme selling events started during the Clinton administration. Perhaps not coincidentally, Event A occurred right around the time that the Federal Reserve, after a lapse of 64 years, assumed the two American seats on the board of the Bank of International Settlements" -- an event GATA maintains is central to the U.S. government's suppression of the gold price.

Murphy says: "Each week now produces more evidence
that the United States has been a part of a scheme
to manipulate the price of gold. This scheme is confirmed
by the January 31, 1995, minutes of the Federal
Reserve's Open Market Committee, at which gold swaps
were attributed to the Exchange Stabilization Fund."

--30--ltw/da*

CONTACT: Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
Bill Murphy, 214/522-3411
Fax: 214/522-4432
LePatron@LeMetropoleCafe.com

-END-
><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><>
What could be better to send to the press around the
world, gold producer CEOs and to the political leaders
of the gold producing countries?! DO IT NOW!
**********************************************************

Editor, The Gilded Opinion

(08/27/2001; 19:51:38 MDT - Msg ID: 60353)

BUCKLER AND HATHAWAY Served Up Tonight at the Gilded Opinion

http://www.usagold.com/THEGILDEDOPINION.htmlFor those who would like to raise their "real money" I.Q., the Gilded Opinion is pleased to offer Bill Buckler's excellent "Educational Series on Money and Gold". And, while you're with us, please also take time (if you haven't already) to peruse John Hathaway's "Gold as Theater". In it, Hathaway carefully lays down the latest evidence to surface on the government gold manipulation trail.

Please use the link provided above. Thanks!

Black Blade

(08/27/2001; 20:34:01 MDT - Msg ID: 60354)

Forbes Body Count

http://www.forbes.com/2001/01/30/layoffs.html
The bodies just keep piling up as more companies cast their undesirables upon the "Bone Pile." The Forbes Body Count has now passed through the 600,000 mark. This Recession could be more painful than those of the 1970's and 1980's. Go for the Gold!

Black Blade

(08/27/2001; 20:38:41 MDT - Msg ID: 60355)

Asian Markets Sinking Fast

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
The Nikkei appears ready to go sub 11,000 (perhaps tonight). Japanese chip makers report that earnings will be "Grim" until 2004. Meanwhile in the last few days there are at least 60,000 Japanese Tech "Bones" that are scheduled to be cast upon the "Bone Pile." The Global Recession is on.

Black Blade

(08/27/2001; 21:09:06 MDT - Msg ID: 60356)

California generators complain of not getting paid again

http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=Elect&ARTICLE_ID=114076
Snippit:

HOUSTON, Aug. 27 -- California independent electricity generators and others have not been paid for power delivered to the state's independent system grid operator for 3 consecutive months in violation of a federal order, an organization representing the group said. Following missed payments for April and May, the June payment was not received as scheduled in early August. "It wasn't clear at first. But there was a systematic pattern of nonpayment," said Steven Kelly, manager of policy at the Independent Energy Producers (IEP), a trade association in Sacramento. Some generators received a letter stating they would be paid 12� on the dollar for power delivered during those 3 months. IEP sought an explanation from the California Independent System Operator, but Jan Smutney-Jones, IEP executive director, called the response "troubling" in a letter to the California Department of Water Resources.

"Market participants have been providing power, in good faith, to Californians for months without being paid," said Smutny-Jones. "California ratepayers have been paying their bills, raising the question: Where's the money? To date there is no explanation for nonpayment." "It would appear that FERC rules are not being adhered to," said Kelly. "Where is the money going?" he asked. Contrary to earlier predictions, the state hasn't experienced blackouts this summer. While unseasonably cool summer is certainly a major reason, the "forbearance" of the generators is another, a spokesman for one generator said. Most declined comment.

Black Blade: This comes on the heels of the Edison Intl. Statement last week that they could seek Chapter 11 protection. Californians could find themselves without electricity as several energy providers have threatened to "pull the plug" and not do business in California as an order of business. This time the rolling blackouts may come as a result of California Deadbeats not paying up. This could push the economy that much further over the edge. Go for the Gold!

Black Blade

(08/27/2001; 21:40:00 MDT - Msg ID: 60357)

IT'S GETTING WORSE

http://www.nypost.com/business/2884.htm
Snippit:

August 27, 2001 -- A whopping number of companies are expected to make negative preannouncements on earnings for the third-quarter, setting up an ever-gloomier economic forecast. More than 355 companies have already made negative preannouncements for the third quarter ending Sept. 31. That's 7 percent ahead of the first quarter's jaw-dropping 332 companies. And the devastating first quarter broke all Thomson Financial's records for preannouncements since the firm began tracking them in 1995. "Earnings are still spiraling downward," said Thomson Financial's Stephen Rigo. "We have not seen a stablization in the reduction of forward-looking negative earnings estimates for the S&P 500."

IMPORTANT!

Wall Streeters don't like to say it, but the numbers show there's an earnings recession in America. And if the trend in disappearing profits continues, a full-blown recession could be next - if we're not in one already. Leading the nation down the not-so-rosy recession road this time are American businesses. Operating income for the S&P 500 companies has fallen steeply as the wreckage in the technology sector sucked $5 trillion in U.S. wealth out of company purses and individuals' pocketbooks, economists say. To salvage profits and bolster stock prices, companies have been cutting costs by laying off workers, decreasing spending and slashing prices for their goods to clear off inventories.

Black Blade: Can you say - Grim? Dismal? Even Recession? I knew you could. We are in a Recession and the talking Heads and buffoons at the BLS and elsewhere can spin whatever story that they wish. We are and have been in a Recession for at least the last several months. The GDP data is about as accurate as the CPI and PPI data, and the statistical massage only makes the inevitable that much more painful. Gold and Silver insurance is definitely in order.

Black Blade

(08/27/2001; 22:01:57 MDT - Msg ID: 60358)

Rearranging Facts To Suit Bottom Line

http://www.nydailynews.com/2001-08-27/News_and_Views/Media_and_Business/a-123227.asp
Snippit:

How to interpret the corporate balance sheet (Black Blade)

They take a one-time reserve, and presto - the division disappears from the earnings statement. By getting rid of its losers, the company can say it beat its estimates. There is only one problem. The division is still there and still burning cash.

Some companies get creative and take reserves that are much higher than needed. Then, when the division is closed, they quietly put the extra reserves back into earnings, once again, helping them to beat their estimates.

Then there are the infamous "non-recurring" expenses. Some of these expenses are legit. It's reasonable for a company to take a one-time reserve if an earthquake destroys a factory. It's not reasonable for the same company to take a reserve for hiring or laying off workers or opening new facilities. This is just normal business.

Some companies exclude the costs of stock options from their earnings, others pump up their numbers by taking imaginary gains from their pension funds. Check out how much of IBM's earnings come from these gimmicks.

My favorite trick is the pro-forma earnings, so loved by the tech companies. In pro-forma earnings, the company makes its own rules. It says, "if we include the things we want and exclude the things we don't want, this is what our earnings will look like." This is utterly ridiculous, except most investors and many analysts fall for it.

Black Blade: This should be titled "Rearrainging the Deck Chairs." Of course analysts fall for these idiocy, most of these budding rocket scientists are babbling idiots. They and the Talking Heads are the ones who pumped the dot.com bubble and "informed" all that the dot.coms with no earnings or even with no prospect of ever having any earnings were great bargains. The game is still afoot as revealed in the article. Note: Amazon.com is one of the most egregious offenders when it comes to the pro forma scam. Jeff Bezos, CEO of Amazon.com proudly announced that his company would be profitable this year - on a pro forma basis. If the SEC is ever serious about investigating and exposing US companies that are involved in these scams, it could shake investor confidence so badly that the markets would crack. Time to consider getting into the "Golden Lifeboats."

John Doe

(08/27/2001; 22:37:15 MDT - Msg ID: 60359)

(No Subject)

"They that can give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety." - Benjamin Franklin, to the Penn State Legislature, 1759.

Luckily, for those willing and able to think a bit outside the modern monetary morass, there is a way to increase both one's liberty AND safety -- gold! ...and silver, too ;o)

Black Blade

(08/27/2001; 22:50:01 MDT - Msg ID: 60360)

Northrop to Cut Jobs

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/breaking/breakingnewsarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20010827&ID=1024720
Snippit:

WOODLAND HILLS, Calif. (Reuters) - Defense contractor Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC) on Monday said its electronic systems sector would consolidate some facilities acquired through the purchase of Litton Industries Inc. About 500 jobs will be cut as part of the consolidation, Northrop said. That represents about 4.5 percent of the company's total California-based work force of 11,000.

Black Blade: Some more undesirable Defensive "Bones" cast upon the "Bone Pile." The Global economy is hurting and getting worse almost hourly. There is no light at the end of the tunnel. Hang on for the ride.

Netking

(08/28/2001; 01:35:29 MDT - Msg ID: 60361)

Japan - How the once mighty are falling . . .

An update on Japan, Snippit:

Tip of the iceberg

No one knows how bad the problem really is. The government says 18 trillion yen ($150bn) of debts need to be taken off banks' balance sheets. But Japanese bank Nomura estimates that at worst the figure could reach 200 trillion yen ($1.6 trillion) - close to 40% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). (read that again! - Netking)

And there is little sign of improvement, with exports down 7.8% for the year to June. As for domestic demand, retail sales slid for a third straight month in June, exacerbating deflation. Bank of Japan: holding onto zero interest rates
That prompted the governor of the Bank of Japan, Masaru Hayami, to make a rare plea to the government. "In order for Japan to return to the path of sustainable economic growth with full support from the current monetary policy easing, progress in structural reform is necessary," he said.

Part of that will be supported by the zero-interest rate policy that the Bank is espousing, he said. But he added that financial institutions need to work harder to sort out their bad debt problems. . . .View Yesterday's Discussion.

LeSin

(08/28/2001; 04:50:46 MDT - Msg ID: 60362)

AVALANCHE - Early Drifts Away From US$ Begin to Move as if Organic!!

http://top.rbc.ru/english/index.shtml?/news/english/2001/08/28/28122455_bod.shtml
Dollar forced out of Russian economy
According to Russia's Central Bank information, a new tendency emerged on the Russian market - the ruble started replacing the dollar as the means of payment. This conclusion is based on the analysis of the country's credit market.
According to the Izvestia newspaper, the total amount of credits granted by Russia's banking sector (both in rubles and foreign currency) over the first five months of 2001 reached RUR 1.152 trillion (about $39.23bn), having increased by 20.4 percent since the beginning of the year. A growth in ruble credits amounted to 23.7 percent, and in foreign currency credits � to 15.1 percent. As a result, the percentage of credits in hard currency decreased. At the beginning of the year, 38.5 percent of the credits were given in foreign currency, and at the beginning of June this figure decreased to 36.8 percent. This is the lowest level since 1997. That is, the dollar is weakening on the Russian credit market.

At the same time, a total volume of deposits attracted by credit organizations by the beginning of June amounted to RUR 811.1bn (about $27.54bn), which is 16.6 percent more than at the beginning of the year. However, hard currency deposits grow faster than ruble deposits. Their volume increased by 19.1 percent (deposits of individuals � by 22.3 percent) over the first five months of the year, while the volume of ruble deposits went up by 14.2 percent (deposits of individuals � by 15 percent). As a result, the percentage of ruble deposits decreased from 51.5 percent at the beginning of the year to 50.5 percent at the beginning of June.

So, more credits are given in rubles now, and more deposits are made in dollars, on the contrary. In response, banks are trying to maintain the same level of interest rates for deposits. However, the Central Bank has indicated that EURO accounts could be opened from now on, and dollar deposits could be converted into EUROs easily. Is this not a sign that the country's financial authorities not only began forcing the dollar from the market but are preparing to go over to the EURO?�

Canuck

(08/28/2001; 05:01:48 MDT - Msg ID: 60363)

Japan

My son just returned from a brief vacation in Japan. His stepfather, who does business in Japan every 6 months or so took the 14 year old 'along for the ride'. The young lad, who is a Nintendo nut, went to 'Space World' which I understand is an yearly exposition of the firm's latest and greatest in the gaming world.

His flight arrived in Ottawa last night at 9:00 and he was one tired looking creature. He did have the energy to ramble on about the new 'game cube', the tournament he was in and the poor air quality in Tokyo.

I asked him about the economy. A 'coke' was $7 ($4.75US) and breakfast for 2 was $40. These prices were in the '5-star' hotel. After a day or two, the 2 'got wise' and went to the nearby 'convenience' store and loaded up with essentials. Apparently, 2 bottles of 'coke', a can of 'pringles' and a handful of chocolate bars were in the neighbourhood of $40 (approx. $26US).

The hotel staffed a person to do every job, an elderly man 'pushed the button' to summon the elevator, another escorted you into it and a third 'pushed buttons' on the inside. The 'minimum wage' in Japan, which I understand these gentlemen were receiving, is $11.00 US, approximately $16.50/hour CDN. The 'minimum wage' in Ontario is in the order of $7.00/hour making Japan's number a multiple of nearly 2.5 times.

Bizarre numbers or what! What is(was) the cause of this? Does Japan need to 'deflate'?

Belgian

(08/28/2001; 05:31:12 MDT - Msg ID: 60364)

GOLD MANAGEMENT

I've been suggesting the following, very cautiously, in the past and will say it again more clearly : The Big miners have not been hedging for the survival of their business...but have been cooperating with the Gold-Managers deliberately and consciously ! The major mininghouses knew very well in advance, what the Gold-Management *PLAN* was !
Their absolute silence and uncomprehensable inactivity is a very understandable attitude. More...major miners are not only fragmented but have a fundamental dispute (dis-agreement) (very-silent of course) on the whole affair !

The red tape on this shamefull collusion is easy to find but too delicate to publicize. Think deep to find the name of the chain.

Allow me to repeat what my intuition is telling me : *GOLD*
is dangerously explosive if the falsification(s) is(are) allowed to be exposed publicly. In the coming decade, a lot of past bubble discoveries will see daylight. Plenty of time for evening stories during the coming Kondratieff winter. With open mouths, we are all going to shout : how was this possible ?

TG's toughts are the *WHY'S* answers, already years in advance, for the candidate history writers. Let us all welcome the Toqueville wake up sign. Waiting for the next Shaka Zulu to join the GATA, horn strategy. Uponroof, call your friend J.Rogers and give him the USAGOLD link for some additional study-work. Yes, definitely, a nasty POG spike down is possible...if "THEY" want to manage it there !
All depends how hot the management-allegations, become .(oct.9-?).
A POG spike down, should only serve as an emergency exit for the managers, at this stage of the process. Don't count on it for doing what we all should have done for quite some time now : holding physical gold in possesion !

All : show your appreciation for our wonderfull host-CPM, by spreading "the word" extensively. Thank you Sirs and Ladies.

Black Blade

(08/28/2001; 06:00:50 MDT - Msg ID: 60365)

Honeywell to Lay Off About 690

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20010828/tc/honeywell_layoffs_1.html
Snippit:

MINNEAPOLIS (AP) - Honeywell International Inc. plans to lay off about 690 workers and close circuit-board plants in Hopkins and Minnetonka by Oct. 31, according to documents filed with the state.

Black Blade: Add more "undesirable" carcasses to the "Bone Pile" as the Recession deepens.

Hipplebeck

(08/28/2001; 06:23:28 MDT - Msg ID: 60366)

curious about a statement

http://www.afxpress.com/afxpress2/html/story_24738.xmlIn the end of this article there is this statement.
"We have decided to mint 100,000
commemorative gold coins denominated at

10,000 yen each to celebrate the 2002
World Cup," Shiokawa said. "But we will

not buy gold ore for that purpose from
overseas."
Why does he make a point about not buying gold from overseas?
Is there some agreement Japan has made about not buying gold?

Leigh

(08/28/2001; 07:28:40 MDT - Msg ID: 60367)

Hipplebeck

If all the rumors are true, they don't have to go out and buy gold! They can just go to the cave where all the WWII gold is and get what they need!!

KarenSue

(08/28/2001; 07:37:45 MDT - Msg ID: 60368)

A place to hide when times have changed

Would food stamps be considered a part of the currency supply, money supply, if you prefer?

Would these instruments in any way resemble greenbacks,
confederate or continental money, upon which no claim is made and no interest is accrued, because they do not have to pass muster with the FOMC?

Are these types of government welfare transfer payments to the so-called "needy", significant, in terms of the effect they have upon our overall currency supply?

Could a great increase in this type of government welfare transfer payments cause their significance in terms or the currency supply be enhanced?

Could this type of government welfare transfer payment be used to minimize the effects of a possible deflationary cycle, by putting enormous amounts purchasing power into the hands of our komrades?

Could the degradation of the "soup lines" be minimized by the use of smart cards in the dispensing of these "necessities"?

Some rambling thoughts which to generate discussion of these and other questions which arise:

My under standing of the food stamp program: - Until fairly recently food stamp coupons were issued to welfare recipients. These food stamps were then presented to the local grocer, in lieu of FRN's, in exchange for food items. The local grocer was even allowed to give change (less than a dollar) upon tender of the coupons at the cash register. The change could then be used to purchase a non-eligible item, say, a pack of cigarettes.

It was a common practice to make several small purchases, one at a time, in order to accumulate enough small change to purchase a non-eligible item which might cost a dollar or more (a carton of cigarettes, a six-pack of beer, a fifth of whiskey, or a lottery ticket). The practice was, to my understanding, very prevalent and would be, IMO, "legal fraud". Let us put that "oxymoronious" phrase in our pipes and smoke the poisonous stuff. (head slightly tilted to the left, eyes squinted)

Also under the old program rampant "illegal fraud" abounded. More than one recipient lived under the same rood. Excessive food stamps were obtained and the consequences of bureaucratic charity quickly surfaced. Food stamps were exchanged at a discount, say 50%, for FRN's and then expended for anything desired (a marijuana joint, a car payment, you name it). The exchange could be made on the street and the colluding party could then take the $25 which he had just discounted into $50 of food stamp purchasing power and spend them on food items.

I have stood in line behind these "needy" people at "Wal-Mart" cash registers and shifted my weight from one food to the other, while carts full of T-bones and meats of all sorts were purchased with food stamps, food stuffs, mind you, which I could not afford with my non-welfare earned FRN's. I have even seen examples where the recipient would try to slip dog food through at Wal-Mart stores and upon rejection, the recipient would tell the clerk, "Fine, keep your lousy dog food. I'll just go back to the isle and get Fido some steak. He would probably like that better anyway." Well, you get the general picture.

At this juncture let me point out that the ultimate launderer of this "filthy currency" was and still is the food merchant. The food stamp merchant is allowed to simply include these instruments in his bank account deposit along with coins, FRN's and checks received from customers. Suddenly these food stamp coupons are converted into demand deposits and become part of the fractional reserve banking system, the U. S. currency supply. The resulting demand deposits would now represent a claim upon "legal tender" FRN's, for example, if my understanding is correct, that a demand deposit is not actually " legal tender" but operates as such in the payment of taxes, etc. because they represent a demand claim upon FRN's.

Another common practice of direct fraud with food stamps involved the exchange of food stamps from the welfare recipient to the grocer directly for FRN's at a discount. No purchase of food would be involved here. The grocer would simply exchange $50 in FRN's for, say, $100 in food stamp coupons and simply deposit the food stamps into his bank account.

Bureaucracy, with "Kongressional" authorization mounts a new white horse and rides again to protect the people from fraud: In recent months the actual issuance of food stamp coupons was discontinued and replaced with a "fraud inhibiting" method of welfare transfer payment. Those eligible for the "free food program" are now issued "smart cards" containing the credits available each month to the recipients. We are told that now the stigma attached to the use of food stamp coupons has be eliminated. The welfare recipient now is able to make the exchange for food items with dignity. His smart card greatly resembles a credit card or a debit card and the "innocent victim" is wonderfully spared the humiliation previously allowed when the "victim's" welfare status so often became exposed to public view. This smart card is the most wonderful kind of credit card. The charges against this card are not subject to future repayment of principle by the recipient, nor does any interest ever accrue to the recipient. It resembles a loan which is written off as bad upon transfer of the proceeds, as this loan is simply charged back to those "less deserving" few, who pay the bulk of the illegal "protection money" disguised as tax on the incomes of fictitious entities. We are now told that fraud in the food stamp program has been all but been eliminated. Yeah, right!

Now where would I be going with this. We have the probability of imminent deep depression in our economy. This depression may already be in the early stages, but if not, we can be sure that "our sins will find us out". A deep, dark depression is looming over the horizon of the lives of our children, if not over the horizon in our own lives. When that time of "deep dark depression and excessive misery" arrives the soup lines of the 1930's will return, or will they?

Could it be that the stigma of the soup lines can be eliminated with smart cards similar to those being used for food stamps. I can envision not only food stamps, but also a host of other stamps (welfare credits) available to eliminate the degradation of the 30's style of soup lines. Why just a food stamp program? Why not add an energy stamp program (gasoline, heating oil, electricity, propane and natural gas)? Why not a transportation stamp program (gasoline, tires, scheduled maintenance, mass transit credits)? Why not a general services stamp program (water and sewer, trash removal)? Why not the promised national health care stamp program?

Smart cards could make welfare recipients hardly distinguishable from those who continue to be gainfully employed, or are on some other type of welfare, such as unemployment or social security, SSI, Medicare, Medicaid, earned income credit, you name it. The soup lines of the 30's could be hidden from view.

The are many implications: Huge federal deficits, the elimination of cash and the complete switch to electronic currency, not to mention the inflationary propensities of current monetary policy which could eventually turn into a deflationary scenario caused by severe depression and encourage this type of welfare transfer payment in order to try to stave off a downward deflationary spiral.

What a great paper investment opportunity arises. Wal-Mart? - buy and hold, I say. It has always been wise to hold the stock of those companies which are the guaranteed beneficiaries of federal subsidy. How about those huge companies in the utilities, energy, and transportation industry? Folks, we are looking at a "permanent plateau" for selected equity investments. Enough of this ranting, you say?

Ok, I'll get back to the currency supply question. Could these smart card credits issued by the federal government have the effect of minimizing the deflationary effects of the coming depression, at least temporarily? If these credits from "food stamp type" programs are in fact part of the currency supply, I would think that the answer is yes, and that these types of credits would become a very significant and dynamic part of the currency supply and would help to fuel the economy to a point.

The massive federal deficit has popped up the ugly head again. It will intensify and neither Kongress nor the premier will be able to stop the acceleration in the growth of this cancer. The God-made rules of compound interest will destroy the dollar and usher in the Euro. Gold will be "without price".

There is a new day coming promised by the Almighty. The promised day will be a day when many will finally heed His call, "Ho, every one that thirsteth, come ye to the waters, and he that hath no money; come ye, buy and eat; yea, come, buy wine and milk without money and without price."

Our kammandants, for years, have been telling those, who are no longer willing to would not break a sweat: "Come ye to the waters, and he that hath no money; come ye, buy and eat; yea, come, buy wine and milk without money and without price."

This promise differs greatly from the promise of the Almighty. Neither the federal government nor the US dollar is Almighty. What we have is an offer. We are encouraged to exchange our freedom for a life of temporary ease, while those who resist, pay the price of this temporary life of ease made available to those who succumb to the enticement.

Because this offer is made, not by a creator God, but by a creator of fiat, the offer is limited to a certain number of participants and for a limited period of time, and the temporary promise is made good by the sweat off the backs of those who refuse the offer. The end result is Tyranny. The freedom relinquished for a bowl of soup by the many, has been simultaneously extracted from the few.

Lust has conceived and has brought forth sin, and when the sin is finished it will bring forth death, the death of the dollar. With the final deathblow to the dollar we will get our just dessert, total tyranny. We will find a state of total slavery for the many who succumbed to the promise of, "something for nothing", a short-lived promise, guaranteed by the intrinsic value of the fiat dollar. These circumstances will finally transform themselves into total slavery, not just for the many who were seduced into not working and not producing that which they consumed, but also for the few who gave only token resistance and provided the funds to the tyrants. Millions at tyranny's command will, "speed and post or land and ocean without rest. There will no longer be those who only stand and wait."

We may have a short time before the end arrives, when absolute tyranny and the total slavery is clearly evident. I expect that a great amount of upheaval will be required to usher in this coming tragedy. During these times of upheaval wealth will be looking for a safe place to hide. There has, in the past, been only one place of refuge for that wealth. That place has, in prior times, proven to be the safe haven of physical gold possession and ownership. There are those who would say that times are not as they once were and that this particular safe haven is no longer a safe haven. Follow the advise of those who would say this if you dare. I cannot spit very far; thus are the limitations of my trust in those who would tell me, "Times have changed".

Only me,

KS

Hipplebeck

(08/28/2001; 07:38:55 MDT - Msg ID: 60369)

from the kitco site

" Does anyone else get the feeling that the world is in one of those chess situations where all the pieces are so
crosschecked that the next move will mean the loss of a lot of pieces?"

I certainly get that feeling!!!

Belgian

(08/28/2001; 07:46:46 MDT - Msg ID: 60370)

Just a thought.....

Super hedged numero uno Anglogold is part of the Gold-Management team (humhumm) and is (always has been) in the known of all POG moves. Anglogold dreams about snatching up, Gold Fields, numero duo, unhedged and with an, uncooperative, incompatible, mining management (Anglosakson>POG dives and super-hedged AU shareprice stays much stronger than GF's unhedged shareprice...swapppediswap...10 GF shares for 1 AU ? When these Gold-Managers mean business, they mean Big Business ! Ohhhhggg...me, just having some dep-thoughts. The merger might be a signal that the Gold Heat becomes unbearable and escape manoeuvers are necessary.

Leigh

(08/28/2001; 08:03:14 MDT - Msg ID: 60371)

Karen Sue

Karen Sue, I greatly enjoyed your thoughtful essay! I live near Washington, D.C. and often imagine that the beautiful marble buildings there look like temples to the great American god, "Government." Truly, Americans are looking to their god to meet all their fleshly needs. Little do they know the extent of the evil that is hidden behind the god's smiling face and smooth words.

I'm more thankful than I can express to those people who have warned us of the coming calamity and urged us to buy gold.

Please post here more often. I know I'm not the only one who has been deeply impressed with the scope and depth of your writings.

Old Yeller

(08/28/2001; 08:04:50 MDT - Msg ID: 60372)

More dollar debating

http://www.investors.com/editorial/feature.asp?v=8/28
A certain Mr.Gold (no kidding),weighs in on the dilemma the global economy has gotten itself into.This,of course,as the dollar has suddenly found new life in the FX markets.

escapethematrix

(08/28/2001; 08:07:33 MDT - Msg ID: 60373)

U.S. Consumer Confidence Fell to 114.3 in August From 116.3

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topsum&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AO4uj5hKYVS5TLiBDSnippet:

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 114.3 during the month from a revised 116.3 in July. August's level was the lowest since 109.9 in April. Consumers were less optimistic this month about present conditions and more optimistic about the outlook for the economy.
``The pickup in layoff announcements and the real turmoil in the stock market still seem to be weighing on consumers' attitudes,'' said Steven Wood, chief economist at FinancialOxygen Inc. in Walnut Creek, California, before the report

Euro losing ground to $, but this report, along with revised
2Q GDP, should soften the blow of the ECB holding firm on rates tomorrow.

Henri

(08/28/2001; 08:13:52 MDT - Msg ID: 60374)

Give that man a raise

My new "Akubra" hat is off to the man who tricked the germans into using THEIR gold to support the US dollar and keep the price of paper gold low. In return they received paper promises (IOU's???) to deliver US gold subject of course to congressional approval. Who signed those IOU's, Clinton? They should know better than to trust just anyone wearing a president's sombrero. If it was some high falutin' Wall street banker type all the more reason not to trust him/her. Maybe they got Alice Rivlin to sign them as presidential appointee to the BIS. Wouldn't that be a hoot?

Let's see now, one of the proposed results of the use of the Euro as global reserve currency was what? Dismantling the IMF structure? and all its derivatives including SDR's and SDR certs (derivatives of SDR's)? That would mean liquidation???...or just default on obligations.

I know this scenario doesn't bode well for the future of gold trading freely divorced from the paper market price fixing; but, you gotta love that we still have our physical gold and the Bundesbank does not.

Let's see...how does that go? He who has the gold makes the rules.

As far as my limited vision into the future tainted as it were by my love of the Another/FOA scenario, I just can't see how they are going to force movement of gold when it would result in them making the rules rather than US.

It is an interesting plan they have, but if certain "containments" need to be orchestrated at high levels to force the flow of gold to Euroland, you would think they would have had more sense than to have the last Ace up their sleeve be an IOU from Uncle Sam. I am having a flashback to 1971. Fool me twice?

So the good ship US of A in league with Her majesty's finest, far from being a "Titanic" headed for an iceberg, has on board physical assets. The Rats (Gold/paper traders from the now defunct Banker's Trust and J. P. Morgan's gold desk), convinced the ship was sinking left before the "dumb" passengers who are basically clueless.

Does anyone else hear the beginning tones of a great big "raspberry" resounding over the Atlantic???

Checkmate?

Cavan Man

(08/28/2001; 08:38:14 MDT - Msg ID: 60375)

Hello Henri

Admittedly, I am "tainted" also. However, I cannot envision a scenario where European gold is shipped outside of Europe to support the US dollar in return for promissory notes; this all done in the context of Euro introduction (many years in the making)and, a market for AU that appears to be horribly screwed up (as usual). True, weak minds can be manipulated easily but, these claims are absolutely incredible.

With regards to our friends A/FOA, the time for their thoughts to manifiest themselves in public policy initiatives is within the next six months. After which, we will all be able to adjust accordingly. So, A/FOA, you've set a clock in motion and the "motion" is winding down quickly.

Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD

(08/28/2001; 08:39:12 MDT - Msg ID: 60376)

Hard assets... Easy access!

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

Swedish Gold

10 & 20 Kronor Coins

Uncommonly good prices on these uncommon coins.

Each month, watch your portfolio grow!

Belgian

(08/28/2001; 08:44:45 MDT - Msg ID: 60377)

@ Hipplebeck post # 60366

Yes indeed sir, your question on this seemingly idiotic remark, is very significant !
Needless to remind, that the Japanese mega-savers, are an enormous threat for the Gold-Management-Plan. Japan is a US-vazal (slave). Japan has to comply with his master's voice (the dollar) or loose both legs and arms (export to the US and US$ savings). Japan can't afford the luxury to be dis-obediant. May I add 2 other small facts that I experienced myself : 1/ A fresh new WGC employee was (repeat: WAS) very enthousiastic about a worked out Gold-marketing suggestion for Japanese savings. His enthousiasm was suddenly broken off ? 2/ The Jipangu (Gold) investment Fund, only wants to invest in Goldminers and doesn't want to talk about physical Gold investment. Strange isn't it ?

And of course the june 1997 lapsus of the gentlemen PM Hashimoto (US$ bonds for Gold) remains the most clear evidence of the dollar-enslavement.

7 TRILLION US$ DEBT is in foreign hands ! 140.000 tonnes of total above ground gold is priced at 1 Trillion $ today...or in other words : *GOLD* is more dangerous than TNT+Syntex together ! Japanese savings are 12 Trillion US$.
Note that I'm accepting these figures from others and have no authority to judge on their reliability. Global debt is estimated at 90 Trillion $ against a world GDP (?) of 40 Trillion $.

Conclusion : in whatever context that 140.000 tonnes of Gold are placed...this shiny stash remains a very dangerous thing in my strong, sorry very strong, conviction.
The more time passes to avoid currency-related *Panic*...the more explosive the re-discovery of Physical Gold will be for joe and sue...not for the Giants.

Old Yeller

(08/28/2001; 09:05:57 MDT - Msg ID: 60378)

Counter-point presentation

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3X7TSKWQC&live=true
I get the impression that this erudite individual doesn't spend too much time at the USAGOLD forum.

"Robert Mundell,the lone voice in support of gold"

Tam

(08/28/2001; 10:13:38 MDT - Msg ID: 60379)

Gold and Silver Seasonal Charts from Spectrum Commodities

http://www.321gold.com/home.htmlThe very last week of August and the first week of September tend to be about the best time of the year from a seasonal point of view to be buying physical silver and gold. Look for the charts at the bottom of the gold section.

site steward

(08/28/2001; 10:22:12 MDT - Msg ID: 60380)

CHARTS --- stock markets getting beat up again today; tip of the iceberg?

http://www.usagold.com/goldenchalkboard/gc_stockbubble.html
Some of you might enjoy a brief look at these charts I put together. Shows where we've come from, and where we might be going.

When you've had enough of this nonsense, contact Centennial and buy some gold to call your own. Better yet, do it today.

R.

Gold Trail Update

(08/28/2001; 10:34:03 MDT - Msg ID: 60381)

The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated

The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.

Sierra Madre

(08/28/2001; 10:35:26 MDT - Msg ID: 60382)

Karen Sue: Thanks for the very interesting post 60368!

Yours is one of the most interesting recent posts.

Opens new vistas of financial and monetary horror. You are really ahead of the curve.

Imagine an emergency - governments love emergencies, they are an excuse for barging onward with what they love to do: spend money (other people's)

Imagine the Government issuing 50,000,000 debit cards to the unemployed, homeless and indigent in the coming depression.

Imagine a monthly balance of $500 credited to each. One can visualize it as "mainlining" the money to where it is needed most.

It does not take much imagination to see that it will be politically irresistible to implement some such program - the population of the US is predominantly hedonistic, accustomed to continuous satisfaction of its desires. Any obstacle to this will be cause for revolutionary rioting.
In this depression, the multitudes of hobos will not be courteous: "Sir, can you spare a dime?" They will be demanding brutes, men and women.

Well, I won't go on. Let's stock up on gold coins and hope we survive to be able to use them.

Sierra

Belgian

(08/28/2001; 11:17:06 MDT - Msg ID: 60383)

Japan

Record jobless rate of 5% and Finance min. Shiokawa, Hoping...Begging...Asking...FOR A WEAKER Yen (sept. group of 7 meeting) ! Of course, nothing new under the nippon sun.

The point is that *economic fundamentals* are more and more of second importance for even the mightiest on the globe.
What other evidence do we need for stating the bankruptcy of all fiat ? When are ordinarry citizens going to realize that *holding* any paper is absurd under the present circumstances. We don't need complicated, monetary, ivory tower, theories, to understand that each currency isn't a constant valuator of our invested labor. Why aren't these astute Japanese savers (and others), considering this Yen devaluation desire of their finance minister as a < theft > ?

It becomes easier to understand that the one who choses to embrase Gold with his currency, has a strong desire to have a strong currency. Aligning or mirroring the strenght/weakness of your currency to the most universal standard (Gold) is indeed a courageous option that must be prepared and outlined meticously. Japan has no choice and therefore its archrival, China is super motivated to follow the european position (TG) on Gold. Against this background, the posting of Hipplebeck (#60366)is again evidence of what we are studying here as candidate goldadvocates.

Currencies are at war, since the principle of floating was introduced and accepted. The next economic expansion can't materialize under the present global currency system.
Genuine and sustained growth (expansive growth) can not be obtained in an ever increasing *Gambling* (falsified) climate.! Is the old continent "europ", really going to bring the necessary change with TG's theory ? I do believe it will. The Gold-Management is evidence of fear from the dollar for a confrontation that has been subtly organised for quite some time. We only await some more dollar-nervousness. A direct confrontation with a POG explosion is premature, at present. But when it happens, we all now here what it is all about.

BR549

(08/28/2001; 11:37:30 MDT - Msg ID: 60384)

Electronic Money: Treasury Research and Development

http://www.fms.treas.gov/emoney/index.htmlKarenSue (msg#: 60368)-

Excellent post.

The trend in welfare payments is in the same direction as the rest of the government. The Treasury and the banksters are trying to convert everyone to emoney. Think of the advantages to them�pull into a gas station and have the scanner identify your retina and then the amount of purchase is deducted from your checking/savings/debit/credit account. If you owe the IRS some money, then you will not be allowed to purchase and the scanner will send the police after you.

Science fiction?�it's closer than you think. When college students begin as freshmen they are issued debit cards by the University system. Parents are required to make deposits to this account at tuition payment time. With these smart cards they can buy food, make phone calls, do laundry, buy pizza, use the coke machines��

Electronic Money: Treasury Research and Development

"FMS Electronic Money Program
The purpose of the FMS Electronic Money Program (Emoney) is to test these new payment and collection technologies to determine their potential impact on government fiscal operations over the medium and long term. Emoney is Research and Development (R&D). It is also a catalyst to burgeoning ideas, and experience that agencies can use in designing its own e-strategies. Various pilots are already underway to test these technologies as Federal payment and collection mechanisms.

FMS Emoney Program Pilots
Stored Value Cards
ELECTRONIC CHECKS
DIGITAL CASH
INTERNET CREDIT CARD COLLECTIONS (ICCC)
Paper Check Conversion"

Now the Fed doesn't have to print money. They just electronically manufacture it.

Econoclast

(08/28/2001; 13:14:28 MDT - Msg ID: 60385)

Trail Guide...

While reading your latest work/walk, a political, as opposed to economic, curiosity came to mind. Whether we like him and his or not, our previous president especially, and his top economic people (including AG) all have reputations as being men with stellar intellects possessing the abilities to use these intellects as masters of deceit and gamesmanship.
Were they REALLY blindsided that hard by the Europeans?

Also, as you brought up the subject of wine, I am reminded of a question I asked once before concerning our shared passions.

Right now, a fine first growth (2000 vintage future) goes for a little more than an ounce of gold. Assuming a vintage of similar quality, when we have hiked to the end of your path, do you think that ratio will still be the same?

The first time I asked that question, I did not know what your answer might be. At this time, I think I know the answer, but if you really think it through, the question is not as simple as it first seems to be.

Cavan Man

(08/28/2001; 13:21:32 MDT - Msg ID: 60386)

Econoclast

Perhaps, hubris?

Old Yeller

(08/28/2001; 13:27:52 MDT - Msg ID: 60387)

Stability,who's got it ?

Anyone else notice the crazy gyrations in the currency markets today did not include gold?Very interesting,especially after all the gloom and doom put forward by the heavyweights in the COMEX trading arena.

Of course,tomorrow is another day;the revised GDP numbers loom large.

R Powell

(08/28/2001; 14:38:42 MDT - Msg ID: 60388)

Brick and Mortar or Finance Co?

I've just finished James Puplava's part 10 of "The Perfect Financial Storm". Nothing short of excellent (IMHO).
From page 19 in printed form, he discusses the "incredible American Credit Machine". It seems that some so-called old economy companies are no longer mainly manufacturing companies but rather finance companies.
"From industrial giants like GE, Ford, and General Motors to department stores like Sears Roebuck, many generate a sizable portion of their profits from their financial subsidiaries."
"In the case of GE, close to 50% of its gross revenues are coming from financial services versus the industrial side of the business".
"GMAC accounted for 70% of GM's profit in the second quarter."

I've been thinking that the Dow component companies would signal the coming manufacturing slowdown but perhaps not so if these former manufacturing companies are now finance companies.
Mr. Paplava thinks (as I do) that real estate prices and finance companies (through increasing defaults) will soon show signs of rough weather ahead.
This was the 10th and final part of his work. I hope he considers presenting the entire presentation in book form. What about it Mr. Paplava? I'll buy a copy for myself and some for Christmas presents! Thanks for an excellent job.
Rich

Cavan Man

(08/28/2001; 14:52:10 MDT - Msg ID: 60389)

Hi Rich

What is the link please? thanks

slingshot

(08/28/2001; 14:55:42 MDT - Msg ID: 60390)

KarenSue Msg# 60368

Wonderful post! The implications of what you have stated are staggering. To support your post a quote.

"Promise them everything,but,give them nothing!"
Adolf Hitler
And the Sheeple will follow.
You have given us one more reason to own physical gold.
Slingshot

Cavan Man

(08/28/2001; 14:56:57 MDT - Msg ID: 60391)

Gateway

may ceasse production in Europe and laying off 25% worldwide and 15% in US.

CoBra(too)

(08/28/2001; 15:33:43 MDT - Msg ID: 60392)

The last Pillar of Goldilocks -

- eroding, sent SM's and the $ into a tailspin and tomorrow will see all eyes on the, presumably, revised GDP.

Does not bode well for the economy. What economy, some may ask, since the US of A has become essentially a (heavily financial-ly) service industry - just see GE.

Well, gee, whatever is left of the great US industrial base seems to become a basket case. Maybe, that's why the former CEO of a resource company now heads the US Treasury? Just in case it needs some hard h(ead)ts, instead of hard assets, to uphold the mimicry of the hard $-currency?

Safe haven? - Or for heavens sake, save in gold - cb2

PS: @ Karen Sue - great essay and it may become true - thank you for sharing your (chilling) thoughts, as forewarned is forarmed.

R Powell

(08/28/2001; 15:59:16 MDT - Msg ID: 60393)

Cavan Man

http://www.financialsense.com/series2/riders/complete.htm Here it is. Sorry I did not include it earlier.
This prints out at 34 pages but it's worth it's weight in gold. It's certainly worth the paper and ink necessary for printing. Paper and ink as opposed to gold?
Where have I heard of such talk before?

Also I just sent a check to GATA to further their efforts and also to recieve a copy of a book (by Craig Smith) speaking of the present economic situation and gold's place in it.
GATA is also mentioned in the work.
Rich

BR549

(08/28/2001; 16:07:57 MDT - Msg ID: 60394)

"The last Pillar of Goldilocks eroding, sent SM's and the $ into a tailspin and tomorrow will see all eyes on the, presumably, revised GDP."

CoBra(too) (msg#: 60392)

As usual, you got it right again.

Has the U.S. ever put out a reliable GDP statistic? One could ask if the U.S. has ever published any reliable statistic. During the wild party on the 90's, the stock market guru's would take a look at CPI, GDP, Consumer confidence index (whatever that is), unemployment, and many others and find a reason to go long in the markets. Most of the quarterly and/or monthly reports showed very positive results which were used by the equity markets to bid stocks higher and higher. Then revised statistics would follow several months later that showed less than the initially reported results, and the media would not report the "revised" statistics because this was "old news". The stock market as a consequence has been bid up to unrealistic values. Even AG got that right.

The components of GDP consist of both price and volume. The relative comparisons of GDP on a world wide basis is supposed to reflect the well being of each countries citizens on a per capita basis reflected in its relative size. Income, production, and expenditures should be used as an aggregate in determining a country's productivity.

The unusual circumstance here is that all of the rest of the GDP leaders GDP's are all down simultaneously for the first time in 25 years.

The question is should the U.S. always put out the GDP statistics on a scheduled interval or wait until they can get it right�i.e., no more "revised" statistics. I always vote in terms of quality rather than inaccuracies.

Of course tomorrow we will get both the new GDP and the "revised" GDP-for what they are worth.

Beowulf

(08/28/2001; 16:10:50 MDT - Msg ID: 60395)

Interesting day

Looking at the Kitco chart for today it looks like a patient has on into cardiac arrest.

Now onto something completely different!

I just received an e-mail from Blanchard & Co. I don't want to promote Blanchard, but they sent me an e-mail that made me mad. Here is a small snippit:

"The dollar is down 8.3% against the euro in the last month and a half. That should be very bullish for gold bullion, which is historically expected to go up when the dollar goes down. This time around, gold has gone nowhere. In fact, gold is down over $15 from its high in May, and is assentially unchanged from its levels in June.

MESSAGE TO OUR CLIENTS

Sell your gold bullion. Sell it in an orderly fashion, but get rid of it all. Given current economic conditions, we may very well have a period of relative strength for gold. Don't let that deter you from getting rid of all of the gold that you have. If you find that you miss it in a few years, you'll be able to buy it all back at a much lower price. If you wait too long to sell, you will be caught in a rush for the exits."

All I can say is I have yet to find this kind of drivel coming from USAGold. They believe in their product, call them today and find out.

The e-mail continues and goes into what I thought was important. Apparently they sent some questions to The World Gold Council for them to comment on. The following shows how inept the World Gold Council is in doing its job of promoting gold.

"Our conclusions, particularly those dealing with the potential downside risk involved in gold, have come as something of a surprise to all of us. Every bit as disconcerting as our own conclusions is the fact that the World Gold Council, with a $25.2 million budget and a mandate to do the research necessary to be able to promote and expand the market for gold, has been unable to provide answers to our questions or to rebut our conclusions.

Our requests for information from the Council began in March 2001. When we did not receive responses through the usual channels, we put our requests in writing on July 3rd and then again on July 25. The first meaningful response that we received from the Council was dated August 24. The
following are our questions, and the Council's answers:

1.Question: "Since March, I have been asking representatives of the World Gold Council the same question: Can the council provide me with a reason why Blanchard's clients and Blanchard should want to buy gold, or to keep the gold that we presently have?"

WGC's Answer: NONE

2.Question: "I told (a senior member of the World Gold Council) that we would no longer market gold to our clients, or accept co-op marketing funds from the World Gold Council, if we do not want to own gold ourselves. Can you give me a good reason why we should?"

WGC's Answer: NONE

3.Question: "Why didn't the price of gold explode when the dollar collapsed between 1988 and 1995? Simply because the Fed reacted to any 10% increase in the price of gold by reducing monetary reserves... and increasing interest rates... What's to prevent the Fed from doing exactly the
same thing the next time the dollar begins to lose strength?"

WGC's Answer: NONE

4.Question: "The Council's Annual Report 2000 said that the Council has reconsidered its strategy and is now placing its focus on creating demand through the promotion of gold and jewelry. Can the council provide me with a plausible argument that increasing jewelry demand can materially increase the price of gold? The Council's change in strategy means that the major producers have resigned themselves to a flat or declining gold price. A declining price might work well for the biggest of the gold mining companies, whose profitability is enhanced by a falling gold price, which also helps them to buy up their competitors. It does nothing for Blanchard's clients."

WGC's Answer: NONE

The following are the conclusions that we reached and which we asked the Council to rebut:

1.Conclusion: "The Federal Reserve Board has an explicit policy of capping any increase in the price of gold by reducing monetary reserves and increasing interest rates."

WGC's Rebuttal: NONE

2.Conclusion: "The European central banks have a policy of capping any increase in the price of gold by adding additional liquidity to the gold market, either through sales or leases."

WGC's Rebuttal: NONE

3.Conclusion: "...The U.S. Federal Reserve Board and the European central banks... have a bigger economic interest in a strong dollar than in a higher gold price."

WGC's Rebuttal: NONE

4.Conclusion: "In going through your Annual Report 2000, I realize that the largest part of the Council's financial support comes from producers whose short sales of gold significantly exceed their annual production - producers that have a vested interest in the price of gold going down."

WGC's Rebuttal: NONE

5.Conclusion: "Barrick and AngloGold, the two biggest gold producers in the world, are also the two biggest short-sellers, each having short sales that are a multiple of their annual production. For them, the only downside to a falling price is the damage that it does to the value of their reserves. Barrick's recent purchase of Homestake shows that they have that problem well in hand. They can continue to make an operating profit through their short sales while they buy up the reserves of their competitors, who have been ruined by the collapse in price."

WGC's Rebuttal: NONE

6.Conclusion: "The liquidity of the gold market is deteriorating and the new generation of central bankers, including those in the U.S. Federal Reserve, are questioning the wisdom of central banks owning any gold. The major precious metals analysts are now starting to talk about gold's illiquidity... If, at some point, the central banks conclude that the liquidity of gold is no longer a given, then we'll see a market rout of epic proportions."

WGC's Rebuttal: "Has there been a loss of liquidity in the market over the last 12 to 18 months? There is no clear cut answer to this question. It is probably true that it has become more difficult to buy or sell a substantial quantity of gold at one time without impacting the price significantly (the technical definition of liquidity)... There can be no denying that a decline in trading volumes in gold has occurred."

The World Gold Council made no attempt to rebut the statement that central bankers are questioning the wisdom of owning any gold and that the lack of liquidity will eventually produce a market rout of epic proportions.

7.Conclusion: "Last year, for the first time in over 20 years, investors sold more gold than they bought... Since I believe we agree investment demand remains the most important determinant of gold prices, if the industry doesn't even do enough marketing to insure retention of gold by existing owners, then the market could be in for a free-fall. There's a lot of gold out there if nobody wants it."

WGC's Rebuttal: NONE

All I can say is if Blanchard doesn't want any of it's gold then I'll take it, and if the WGC can't even answer or rebut any of the Blanchard questions then what good are they?

I had thought of purchasing from Blanchard and sending some of my coins in to them to get graded but I've changed my mind.

USAGOLD do you offer grading of old coins? If so I may have a few I'd like to have graded.

Sorry for the Blanchard posting, please don't pull my password. Back to lurking.

-Beowulf

CoBra(too)

(08/28/2001; 17:14:34 MDT - Msg ID: 60396)

GS's Dudley blames FED to postbone pricking -

"The Bubble"! What an un-subtle maneuver to find cover from the coming class actions - after all, history has GS starting the first mutual fund in the US in 1929 at $ 95 and as people tried to cash out it was down to a $ 1.50 - a thrifty experience - which may well be looked upon as a bonanza in today's shifty 401 K's extravaganza.
And as I see, Europe's papers are full and dull with assurances that the pension fund insurances may just have to rebalance their assecuranz? i.e. - no way, for us to get back our pay!
Marvelous, I've worked my ass (sorry) to find out I'm the only side to keep my promise (bad rhyme), though worse reality - as the flagrant robbery of the beaurocrats leave me at the mercy of the same - what a shame!
Sorry for rantin' again - cb2

and BTW - TWIMC - Phil & Lillian - thank you for your concern.

Econoclast

(08/28/2001; 17:21:58 MDT - Msg ID: 60397)

Mr. Kosares...

Did you receive the faxed copy of the letter from Blanchard I sent you last Friday?

Come on Sellers! Drive it down to a penny! Then I'll be able to afford the almost unlimited tonnage you profess to sell!

CM: Hubris=Arrogance?

Cavan Man

(08/28/2001; 17:37:43 MDT - Msg ID: 60398)

Beowulf

Since CB (too) said "ass" (he's right you know), I'll say it about the Blanchard/WGC "drivel": pure, unadulterated BS (not bachelor of science).

Netking

(08/28/2001; 17:43:01 MDT - Msg ID: 60399)

Gateway - latest tech to cut, 6,000+ jobs to go

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1514000/1514222.stm"The troubled computer maker Gateway is to shed 6,600 staff and close key operations outside of the US. In a radical restructuring, Gateway is to close its arms in Malaysia, Singapore, Japan, Australia and New Zealand in order to focus on its core business in the US.

. . . and the firm will decide within the next 30 days whether to ditch its European operations as well . . ."

Cavan Man

(08/28/2001; 17:47:32 MDT - Msg ID: 60400)

PS: Beowulf

Blanchard & Co. is owned by General Electric.

Cavan Man

(08/28/2001; 18:12:41 MDT - Msg ID: 60401)

PPS: Beowulf

Blanchard/WGCThe WGC is pro gold just as Mr. Friedman is pro sound money. Regarding B & Co., that's really a boiler room operation. Let's say with honesty what it is. IMHO, it is likely that they see an impending rise in POG and are short of inventory. So, why not trade the dollars in their accounts for metal now; perhaps switching some clients into higher margin numismatics in the interim, then, sell the metal back at higher prices and premiums. There are a lot of people and companies out there who would do just that. I've met many of them.

Think, think, think....Winnie the Pooh.

nickel62

(08/28/2001; 18:21:45 MDT - Msg ID: 60402)

I am curious just how large an assemblage of fellow gold bugs are we anyway?

When I first realized that there were only about fifteen hundred signatories of the "Petition for honesty in the US gold reserve accounting" I began to wonder how many people are there that read our various ideas. Are the number of lurkers on this site and others like this one numbering in the hundreds or in the thousands. It is an interesting point because clearly the spin doctors have a fairly large army at their disposal. I wonder if anyone of you has any idea of the pervasiveness of our ideas about gold and the monetary situation?

auspec

(08/28/2001; 18:27:44 MDT - Msg ID: 60403)

Piling On

Speaking of Blanchard, they periodically place articles at GE and demonstrate their 'deep in the box', & 'behind the curve' thinking. I have found it hard to believe that they have done ANY research whatsoever in regards to the gold market, and I can promise you they never took the time to read and integrate anyone else's work at GE. They are assigned a zero credibility level, feel bad for anyone they manage to fool. Get with the program, Blanchard, your namesake would be ashamed of you!
Sound advice- buy your gold only from gold advocates/activists!

auspec

(08/28/2001; 18:33:45 MDT - Msg ID: 60404)

nickel62

I do not know the accuracy of the figure but did hear this site has received up to 50,000 hits per day. House, is that accurate?
There has to be a fear/confidentiality factor with the petition, in spite of 'anonymous' signings, hard to blame it on apathy as gold holders are anything but apathetic. If this site receives 50,000 hits there are many yet to leave 'the closet'. Come on out, your government needs you!
auspec

BR549

(08/28/2001; 18:39:31 MDT - Msg ID: 60405)

CM & auspec have got it right 2cb.

Cavan Man (msg#: 60398) & auspec (msg#: 60403)�

The main negative of the HC GOLD series was GE Jack's PR Machine, whose sponsor was another so called goldbug source, (a.k.a., who is really "Big Bidness", sorry for stealing your line uponroof) and was appropriately in lock step with the anti-gold propaganda of CNBC. Wouldn't it be nice if General Electric could just buy up every bidness out there before GE Jack retires?

Again to be fair, anyone that thinks that I am anti-big bidness or anti-GE or its pawns, is 100% correct.

R Powell

(08/28/2001; 18:47:14 MDT - Msg ID: 60406)

Cavan Man/ nickel62

You mentioned that, "Blanchard + Co. is owned by General Electric."
And GE according to James Paplava is as much a financial company (with 50% revenues from the likes of G.E.Capital Finance) as a manufacturer.
What would an upshot in the POG do for/to General Electric's financial division?

Nickel62
USAGold forum is getting about 9,125,000 page hits per year according to my math and M.K.'s approx. 25,000 page hits/day estimate. Yet GATA's e-mail list is only about 1500. We need to multiply, no?
Rich

slingshot

(08/28/2001; 18:53:28 MDT - Msg ID: 60407)

Auspec Msg#60404

Your right Auspec. The goverment needs us.Or is it our gold?
50,000 hits only means they are looking. Possible Goldbugs.
The count could be measured by the amount of customers BUYING GOLD. Some prefer to buy from local dealers in metals to reduce paper trail. Just like some other items. To be sure gold at this time is not a major topic of conversation in the Baby Boomer crowd. The outlook of the global economy is weak with optimism to the long side. This may fare well for the Goldbug now as he accumulates at low prices. When things start to really go bad in the financial area you can bet that most Goldbugs will GO DEEP and RUN SILENT.
I feel a turn of the worm.
Slingshot

Black Blade

(08/28/2001; 19:08:32 MDT - Msg ID: 60408)

(No Subject)

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010828/bs/economy_dc_1.htmlConsumer Confidence Fell Once Again

Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence fell unexpectedly to its lowest level in four months in August as a weakening job market weighed on consumers and threatened to undermine retail spending, one of the few pockets of strength in a sluggish economy, a report said on Tuesday. ``The deteriorating U.S. job market dampened consumer spirits this month,'' said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center. ``This suggests rising unemployment ahead. The nation's employment and unemployment numbers now bear watching, since continued weakness in the job market could translate into slower consumer spending.'' Meanwhile, the pace of corporate layoffs has been relentless, with announcements of thousands of job cuts across corporate America almost on a weekly basis.

Black Blade: The "undesirables" or non-essential "Bones" are continually added to the "Bone Pile." I will post more on this later - am meeting with a newly hired "Bag O' Bones" in the energy patch tonight. I have a lot of data to suggest that we are about to enter into a period of Recession that will surpass the pain of the 1970's and 1980's, and could even rival the Great Depression in severity. Definitely look to PM insurance and get out of debt if at all possible. The economy is about to look "Grim."

BTW, I heard that the Otis Elevator people are casting off some "Bones." Maybe "elevator guy" has news?

CoBra(too)

(08/28/2001; 19:11:06 MDT - Msg ID: 60409)

Re- The New Orleans Gold Conference -

"The" Gold Conference per se, used to be Jim Blanchard's
expose' and that's why I'm going to attend - no matter what became of his firm - as even GE will have to admit, if they payed up some FRN's to take over the product, just to obstruct and write off the fray, as they very well may - it'll only obscure the real reason - like treason and will come to the light of the day - in season.

As I can't figure the WGC/Blanchard riddle I sure as hell know where to accumulate my private pot o' gold!
Do you? - cheers - cb2

site steward

(08/28/2001; 19:22:10 MDT - Msg ID: 60410)

No escaping this one... burnt either way.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010828/n28320037.htmlExcerpt from Reuters (URL above) to set the stage:

----WASHINGTON, Aug 28 (Reuters) - Easing monetary policy for the express purpose of deflating the mighty U.S. dollar would backfire on the manufacturers who have been pressing for the Federal Reserve to do just that, according to a recent Fed study.

In a recently released commentary by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, economic adviser Owen Humpage said that although cutting U.S. interest rates could prompt a decline in the dollar's value in the near term, in the long term it could also spark inflation, to the detriment of manufacturers.------

You wanna know something? Of all the Fed district offices, I have a soft spot in my heart for the Reserve Bank of Cleveland. They do some thinking there that is top drawer material... all in my PERSONAL opinion, of course. (Bolstering my opinion of that *particular* Reserve Bank was the fact that they contacted me last week with regard to a specific subject matter, however, my own discretion suggests that I say no more about it publically, for I have never been one to yell "fire" in a crowded theatre. I WILL, however, continue to urge you to buy gold -- and perhaps a bit more urgently at that.) But I've strayed a bit from official business...

Getting back to the point of this post, this article highlights a few of Mr. Humpage's comments from the study. In response to manufacturer's calls for an end to the Treasury's "strong dollar policy" (which Reuters rightly points out is "a largely rhetorical backing of a strong U.S. currency"), Mr. Humpage says:

------The immediate nominal dollar depreciation and the eventual price increase would result in only a temporary improvement in the competitive positions of U.S. manufacturers.-------The dollar's real exchange value will initially depreciate as the nominal exchange rate responds to the monetary easing, but the ensuing inflation will eventually reverse this depreciation and return the real exchange rate to its initial level.-------The cost of the temporary gain in our competitive position would be a permanent hike in the inflation rate.-----

Wandering off for a bit of policy rambling...

At the end of the day, the most we can reasonably expect of our monetary officials is to conduct policy in such a way that shall foster a monetary/banking system conducive to general price stability, the economic foundation upon which individuals and businesses may plan for the future and grow. Such policy-based "manipulation" by central banks against fluctuations of AGGREGATE price levels is acceptible when the issue at hand is a product of their own emission (e.g., dollars, yen, euros, pesos). It is distinctly NOT acceptible to ignore general prices to singularly target the "price" of one independent market item (such as gold) unless all market players have been clearly informed that this single item plays this unique role under the "Rules of the Game".... as was the case with gold under the various gold standards.

Given the constraints mentioned in the preceding paragraph, as we are no longer on a gold standard, the central banks should do nothing to impare fair and physically valid price-discovery for gold within the marketplace. Further, because gold is a physical creation of nature and NOT a product of bank emission, neither a central bank nor any Association of bullion bankers should endeavor under policy of any kind to "manipulate" this specific product (gold) so as to maintain its appearance as steady against the aggregate of consumer price levels found in the market. Indeed, it should be allowed to seek its rightful, individual value among them as dictated by the market through time.

Those crafting the euro-system surely perceive this in a similar fashion; good news for gold owners around the world in time ahead. Unfortunately, the legacy dollar system was not built compatible for this new monetary regime allowing gold to have market freedom. Despite best intentions, the transition is going to be a bumpy ride for all, particularly for dollar holders not bolstered with an adequate foundation of gold.

Choose gold in the form of sovereigns and have the best of all worlds.

R.

auspec

(08/28/2001; 19:32:06 MDT - Msg ID: 60411)

Burrs Under My Saddle

Sorry, they just won't go away. I have grown totally weary about how{e} the United States was left out in the cold and surprised by the Washington Agreement. First of all, if memory even remotely still serves me, 'Washington' likely refers to the US Crapital, to which these various signees were invited by those that regularly 'hold court' in our nation's capital. So somehow{e} these 15 countries sprung this announcement on the US? Doesn't pass the methane test.
I have repeatedly stated that the US's response to the WA was totally out of character, as in there was NO response. Think about it, NO RESPONSE! They had no reason to respond, because they were NOT left out of the deal. They held the meeting, invited the various countries, and hammered out some piece of paper that had no teeth or conviction behind it. The whole thing is contrived, US included. Do you think the various bankers/countries/elitists don't have the full picture in front of all of them? It is really quite astounding that more 'leaks' have not come forward through this whole process. Gotta give them a tad of credit there. Anyway, please rethink the WA and include the US in the decision making scenario. What does that signify?
While I'm ranting, may as well get another burr out. This one is in regards to the US{CI}A, and the shadow government running this country {that used to be tied to the Constitution}. We got HUD, ESF, and likely multiple other agencies' slush funds run by 'intelligence' folks with no accountability to anyone other than other behind the scenes characters. The CIA's hands are all over the gold issue, look for it reported by more and more credible sources. And look for the regular lines of propaganda to dismiss or ignore this reality. Confucious says, head in sand creates rod and cone malfunction. GB1- former head of CIA, snoops present at FOMC meetings, accounting frauds beyond even government incompetence. Shadow government, run by who? When this message is picked up by Echelon will it be sent through regular govt channels or those behind the scenes?
Very best to you guys, but you should look for some honest work. This is part of the reason we don't see more names on a petition, the safety factor is not overlooked lightly.
OK now, a couple burrs are gone, but pony still a bit frisky. Will search for more another time.
auspec

Cavan Man

(08/28/2001; 19:43:44 MDT - Msg ID: 60412)

Forum angst

I've seen this repeatedly and periodically over the last two and one half years here. Steady lads!

auspec

(08/28/2001; 19:44:26 MDT - Msg ID: 60413)

ANOTHER?

From FOA Part 2, msg. 101:
"I {FOA} asked ***our speaker*** to return and address....."
"Good evening Mr. Kosares, nice of you to spare some time to join ****us****."

FOA has again started using a 3rd person in this Trail piece. I had hinted at this being ANOTHER when this first started occurring, yet no one else seems similarly inclined. We have been promised messages from ANOTHER, but I fail to remember that transpiring. Did I miss it, or are they right there in front of us? Someone has twice recently posted at Kitco under ANOTHER {thoughts}, what gives?
Regardless of source, all these thoughts must be analyzed, integrated, and somehow{e} pass the test of time. I'm watching and waiting, this is the year!

nickel62

(08/28/2001; 19:44:58 MDT - Msg ID: 60414)

Loyal readers of this site are making those hits I think!

The Twenty five thousand hits every day is a number that sounds big but I imagine that I probably contribute around ten to fifteen every day myself. Reading and then picking up information and then moving back to the necessities of my job and life and then returning later. I would be very interested to know if our host thinks that the twenty five thousand represents anywhere near that number of lurkers? I frankly have no idea. In the clarity of thought rankings and intelligence of the contributors this group is almost with out peer. I am sure that the numbers that benefit from the data collection and analysis is legion. I guess I just wonder if we are going to change the way the world thinks I am looking for a measure of our impact. Lurkers who have two cents to throw into the discussion would of course be welcome.

Cavan Man

(08/28/2001; 19:51:58 MDT - Msg ID: 60415)

auspec saddle burrs

I don't think the US is omnipotent; invincible. There is always a weakness to be probed, identified and exploited. This is the best country in the world but we have a sizable achilles heel.

I'm a little tired of hearing about the WA also in the context you imply but, how 'bout the meeting was held in our nation's capital to underscore a point; the point being the contents of the message? Afterwards, what should the US have said? Or, why should they have said anything?

The US is definitely part of the decision making process but I wonder which fiddler is calling the tune.

Don't let the bastards get you down.

auspec

(08/28/2001; 19:53:09 MDT - Msg ID: 60416)

Steady as she blows! Not to worry, CM, it's simply the regular blather out the spout.
Regards,
auspec

Cavan Man

(08/28/2001; 19:57:58 MDT - Msg ID: 60417)

auspec

I think the Kitco another is a fraud. Also, I think Another left the friendly confines of the forum here due to some very uncivil and base comments made by a former poster.

I too picked up upon this "Mr. Speaker" posturing. I asked MK if TG had lost his marbles (not likely) or if Another was back. My goodness; I can't believe I am talking about this. I must be insane.

Forget A/FOA for a minute. The case to buy gold is overwhelming on many counts. For me, the real reason has always been "monetary". We've made no progress and are no longer guessing as to why because of GATA.

Yes, this is the year or early next.

Cavan Man

(08/28/2001; 20:04:59 MDT - Msg ID: 60418)

auspec

Love that nautical metaphor! Ever read Moby Dick? That is simply one of the finest pieces of literature ever written.

Cavan Man

(08/28/2001; 20:09:08 MDT - Msg ID: 60419)

PS: auspec and g'night to all...

In the words of a cynical New Yorker I know, "the paper game has alwyas blown up." To that I add, what's different this time; derivatives? Checkmate (mate). My eight year old got my Queen tonight! Kind regards....CM

slingshot

(08/28/2001; 20:19:28 MDT - Msg ID: 60420)

Nickel62 Msg# 60414

Measure of Impact I too have thought about the impact on gold by just buying what I can. How many others are doing the same? The conclusion is that I am at the cutting edge or ahead of the curve. The impact will be how fast the price of gold goes up. I have read in another article that the Powers that Be do not care if the little guy cashes in on a few crumbs. They just do not want the big buyers to get to much. If you think along the Titanic.It was not a big hole but a multitude of small holes that did her in. Thinking along this line we will not see our impact till the short or squeeze of gold. Accumulate this dirt cheap gold and let the IMPACT take care of itself.
Slingshot

uponroof

(08/28/2001; 20:31:26 MDT - Msg ID: 60421)

Blanchard and GE.....etc

Recall from Ed Bugos' (Goldenbar) piece on fascism that GE also owns CNBC > WSJ > besides Blanchard, who btw, is pulling nothing more than a publicity stunt in condemning bullion. It draws attention and allows them to push their Central America shipwreck numismatic stash, which hasn't been moving as well as expected. The stunt is serving all 'related' interests well.
**************************

Speaking of numismatics. 'The American Advisor' today reported that a very large fund is about to buy into the numismatic market. The reporter states: "I have personal knowledge that this will happen". They believe this fund will experience success which will in turn encourage other funds into similar numismatic investing. This may cause an explosion in the rare coin market.
***************************

Article in Sept 3rd issue of TIME magazine entitled:
"Are You Worried Yet...One spark Could Ignite a Worldwide
Economic Crisis"

The opening paragraph: Think of yourself flying across the country, an engine starts sputtering....cause for alarm? Sure. But the pilot does that folksy number "Aw shucks little problem here" and assures you the others can take the strain. Then a second engine goes out. The sweat trickles down your neck but you reckon you'll make it to the ground safely. But if the third, and then the fourth flame out.....

The metaphors:
Airplane > economy.
Pilot > Wall Street Gurus
Other engines can take the strain > the consumer will take up the slack,...housing is still doing OK,..Social Security privatization of the Stock Market,...markets always go up,...etc. etc. etc."

It is encouraging to see more and more mainstream reports of this type. The economic growth engines are in fact flaming out, and since 'globalization', every financial system in the world is on board.

The solution?: Have the pilot, during freefall, adjust the altimeter to read a steady 20,000 ft. > Supress POG ******************************

btw-Japan recently making a bid to build a better bonepile:
Toshiba 18,000 jobs
Hitachi 20,000 jobs
Fujitsu 16,400 jobs
*******************************

btw2-The History Channel, seeking consultation on their GOLD! documentary content, was advised by The American Advisor, to point out how the public's purchasing power was negatively affected by delinking from gold. The folks at The History Channel did not think that information worthy of broadcast. Is anybody surprised?
********************************

Lets not forget....

Paul Kazreel Director of Economic Research for Northern Trust Investment Bank "Keep one thing in mind girls and boys....If printing money created genuine wealth, the Wymarr (sp) Republic between the wars would have been the richest nation in the world". (Recall 1930's Germany in which a wheelbarrow of cash was needed to buy a loaf of bread).

site steward

(08/28/2001; 20:47:53 MDT - Msg ID: 60422)

For Cavan Man and auspec: The Central Bank Gold Agreement of 26 September 1999

Certainly, it was announced in Washington, D.C., but I believe the encouragement for market participants to call it the Washington Agreement was driven by the World Gold Council as a positive-spin media ploy. And why not... in policy and practice the operations of the United States were not at odds with the significant elements of this agreement among 15 European central banks.

Why was it announced in Washington, of all places? Perhaps the Europeans had an eye toward "PR" (public relations), going for the greatest effect.

To be sure, the gathering in Washington was not a specially convened meeting for that purpose by any stretch of the imagination. It was simply the predictable occasion (and announcement opportunity) of the Annual Meeting of the IMF, with a gathering of the G7(8,9,10...) in conjunction. Extraordinary agreements like this typically do not spring up overnight, and I am inclined to think that the legwork/headwork was actually done earlier that Summer in Europe, perhaps under the auspices and shelter of a particular cylindrical-shaped building in Basle, the common meetingplace for troubled central bankers wanting to kick around options for viable solutions with peers.

Call it what you will, unless current courses are changed, the announcement and agreement marked a watershed for gold in the international monetary arena. Now, we only await follow-through of the marketplace coupled with official reinforcement/affirmation of resolve.

Inertia of the marketplace can be such a tiresome thing... but also quite favorable when you put time to work in your favor. Sometimes acquisition with confidence wants time, eh?

R.

Netking

(08/28/2001; 20:56:49 MDT - Msg ID: 60423)

Hits

Bravo to CPM on the excellent site hit stats . . . affirms they have the best golden place in town yes. If the estimated 25,000 hits/day had a generous average of 5 visits a day/person . . . would equate to a solid base of at least 5,000+ regular daily readers & maybe an equal number of casual visitors/lurkers? wait for these numbers to "blow out of the water" as the POG rises . . .

uponroof

(08/28/2001; 21:33:21 MDT - Msg ID: 60424)

Dollar Forced Out of Russian Economy

http://top.rbc.ru/english/index.shtml?/news/english/2001/08/28/28122455_bod.shtmlSome signs of divorcing the dollar, from Russia, as reported in this Russian article

"....According to Russia's Central Bank information, a new tendency emerged on the Russian market - the ruble started replacing the dollar as the means of payment. This conclusion is based on the analysis of the country's credit market. According to the Izvestia newspaper, the total amount of credits granted by Russia's banking sector (both in rubles and foreign currency) over the first five months of 2001 reached RUR 1.152 trillion (about $39.23bn), having increased by 20.4 percent since the beginning of the year. A growth in ruble credits amounted to 23.7 percent, and in foreign currency credits � to 15.1 percent. As a result, the percentage of credits in hard currency decreased. At the beginning of the year, 38.5 percent of the credits were given in foreign currency, and at the beginning of June this figure decreased to 36.8 percent. This is the lowest level since 1997. That is, the dollar is weakening on the Russian credit market.

At the same time, a total volume of deposits attracted by credit organizations by the beginning of June amounted to RUR 811.1bn (about $27.54bn), which is 16.6 percent more than at the beginning of the year. However, hard currency deposits grow faster than ruble deposits. Their volume increased by 19.1 percent (deposits of individuals � by 22.3 percent) over the first five months of the year, while the volume of ruble deposits went up by 14.2 percent (deposits of individuals � by 15 percent). As a result, the percentage of ruble deposits decreased from 51.5 percent at the beginning of the year to 50.5 percent at the beginning of June.

So, more credits are given in rubles now, and more deposits are made in dollars, on the contrary. In response, banks are trying to maintain the same level of interest rates for deposits. However, the Central Bank has indicated that EURO accounts could be opened from now on, and dollar deposits could be converted into EUROs easily. Is this not a sign that the country's financial authorities not only began forcing the dollar from the market but are preparing to go over to the EURO?

Gandalf the White

(08/28/2001; 23:10:27 MDT - Msg ID: 60425)

Question for Randy

site steward (08/28/01; 19:22:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 60410) (closing remark) "Choose gold in the form of sovereigns and have the best of all worlds."
R.
---
Sir SS -- Other than you wish to sell more Sovereigns, is there another reason that you recommend them over other forms of Au?
Thanks!
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(08/28/2001; 23:39:34 MDT - Msg ID: 60426)

WOWSERS BB !!

Did you see the NIKKEI just break through the 11,000 level?
LOOK OUT BELOW !
<;-)

Black Blade

(08/29/2001; 00:08:29 MDT - Msg ID: 60427)

A Brave New World - The New Recession

STOCK MARKET CRASH AND INSANE STOCK VALUATIONS

We are about to embark on a journey that is new to most living beings and not seen our grandparents generation. We are about to see a Recession that could rival the Great Depression. We just need to look at some recent events. We have seen the great "Tech Wreck." In 2000-2001 NASDAQ stocks fell over 60% and $5 TRILLION DOLLARS VANISHED - Gone to "Money Heaven!" That is almost as much as the National Debt! Even after this drubbing of a 60% loss, the average NASDAQ stock was trading at 131 times earnings. That is an obscene valuation and nearly 6 times the 23 times earnings of 5 years ago. The average historical PE ratio is about 14 times earnings. It gets worse! As companies report more dismal forecasts and lowered earnings these valuations become ever more obscene. That means the average NASDAQ stock must fall another 80%+ from these levels just to revert to the historical norm. It appears that the NASDAQ index should be at about 800!

The stock market is toast. Even the DOW would have to fall over 30% to revert to historical norms. How does a DOW index of less than 7000 sound? If history is a guide we could be face to face with the most severe Recession in history. Alan Greenspan and the Federal Reserve Governors have cut short-term interest rates 7 times in a desperate bid to stop the carnage. These attempts are doomed to fail. The markets continue to crash regardless. Even the so-called "Smart Money" such as George Soros has reportedly bailed out of stocks. Sure, there will be several "Suckers Rallies" while the Talking Heads and Pied Pipers claim that "the worst is over," "All is well," and "We have found a bottom." It is a trap! The fundamentals only support a stock market crash. Perhaps the most egregious acts come via the Carnival Barkers (analysts and media hypesters) who tout bogus data such as pro forma accounting (lies and omitted critical information), excluding costs of stock options, counting pension funds as corporate earnings, etc.

Think on this for a minute - more than 80% of Americans had their wealth tied up in the stock market when the crash began. And more than half had their life savings in Tech stocks- gone to "Money Heaven" (OUCH!). Much of this investment was tied up in retirement investments such as IRA's and 401K's. Hopefully for many of these people they will be able to survive on Social Security (if it survives) and develop a taste for cat food. Many more are likely to experience a distressful change in life-style (poverty). The stock market is just beginning to correct to historical norms and that means stock market crash.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

Recently we saw Consumer Confidence numbers fall sharply. The supposed "Wealth Effect" from higher stock earnings has vanished - gone to "Money Heaven." Consumers are less likely to keep spending on consumer goods. The result is lower corporate earnings and a further crash in stock equities and even higher stock valuations. Stock market crashes are always followed by Recession. The result is a panic selling frenzy of stocks, bonds, real estate, etc. Note: Pawnshops are doing a very brisk business these days.

What can we do? One thing that we can do is get out of debt a soon as possible. Store food, water, dry goods, have some survival cash on hand, and of course Gold and Silver for portfolio insurance and to tide us over until this mess is sorted out. This will get very bloody before all is said and done - Hang on for the ride!

GROWING CORPORATE DEBT

Corporations are going broke. Data from the Federal Reserve indicates that US businesses are over $6.5 TRILLION in debt. That debt grew 3 times faster than the Gross Domestic Product! - Now that I call a RECESSION! That is greater than the GDP - greater than the entire production of all goods and services in the US economy! The government can massage the statistical data all that they want to deceive the people, but they can't change the facts. Watch for a record number of corporate Chapter 11 filings this year.

Major banks hold loans on this massive corporate debt. What does that mean? A banking crisis of the likes not seen since the Great Depression. Bank Holidays will probably become common events. All the "cash" in those bank accounts held by private citizens? Gone - gone to "Money Heaven" - (forget about the FDIC Insurance). Certainly another reason to hold Gold and Silver as insurance. Banks are bleeding red ink. An example is the Bank of America. This bank had $5.6 billion in nonperforming loans in the first quarter 2001, and that is up almost twice as much from a year earlier. These banks are likely to suffer much greater losses as the economy tanks. With all that is occurring in the economy, is it any wonder that rightly or wrongly, George W. Bush will go down in history as our generation's Herbert Hoover?

ENERGY CRISIS

Every postwar Recession has been preceded by an energy crisis. That has happened once again. Recently oil prices and natural gas prices tripled, and electricity rates more than doubled. They are still historically high. The potential for severe energy shortages remains very high. Bull markets and economic recoveries always depend on an abundance of "Cheap Energy." That is not likely anytime soon. Demand for electricity is growing while new generating facilities are years away. In order to "Kick Start" the economy a comprehensive energy plan is needed and a concerted effort to produce abundant hydrocarbons is needed. The decaying energy grid must be upgraded and many more power plants, transmission lines, and pipelines are needed. The possibility of more OPEC cuts and a Middle East conflict also complicate the picture. Gasoline prices are rising, and increased unrest in the Middle East could reduce oil imports and that would send oil prices skyrocketing. If these events coincide they could send consumer confidence into a tailspin.

UNEMPLOYMENT

Another ominous sign is the growing "Bone Pile." Many thousands of American Workers now find themselves classified as "non-essential" and are being cast upon the "Bone Pile" discarded as nothing more than household trash. Many will likely raid their declining retirement funds just to survive and then get clobbered with tax consequences and penalties - OUCH! Talk about adding insult to injury. Officially there are now well over 3.18 million people cast upon the "Bone Pile." Many more are unofficially on the "Bone Pile" as they were self employed, consultants, or disqualified for unemployment benefits. It is estimated by some accounts that the "Bone Pile" could include as much as 9% to 11% of the US workforce. So far this year the US officially lost over 800,000 jobs. The true number is likely much higher. The unemployment picture appears to be eroding consumer confidence as well and there is no light at the end of the tunnel.

CONCLUSION

If you invest, invest very selectively and get to know those investments very well, after all even in stormy seas there are opportunities. The stock market is poised for a very severe reversion to the historical norm. We are in a Recession and will very likely see a Recession so severe that it could shake the very foundations of society. We could experience a Brave New World like that of our grandparents during the Great Depression. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Get out of debt if at all possible - if somehow all works out at least you will sleep better. Get basic goods including food and necessities just as if you were preparing for a natural disaster or prolonged unemployment. Protect your wealth by accumulating hard assets like Gold and Silver for portfolio insurance. Then sit back and watch the approaching storm. Life could get - "Interesting."

If I am wrong, at least we will be secure for whatever may come. However, the fundamentals are at best - "Grim"
View Yesterday's Discussion.

Black Blade

(08/29/2001; 00:13:36 MDT - Msg ID: 60428)

Asian Sinking Fast

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
RE: Gandy, Yes indeed, a new 17+ year low on the Nikkei. It was nip and tuck, but the Nikkei beat the Hang Seng to sub 11,000. Much further to fall from here. The Japanese Kamikaze economy is in horrible shape and even with zero interest rates. In a word - "Grim"

Black Blade

(08/29/2001; 00:19:07 MDT - Msg ID: 60429)

Nikkei falls below 11,000, 1st time in 17 years

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010829/tav024232.html
Snippit:

TOKYO, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Tokyo's key Nikkei stock average fell below 11,000 for the first time in 17 years on Wednesday after a Wall Street slide bruised investor sentiment, already shaky amid fading corporate profits and a weakening economy. Major banks including Mizuho Holdings Inc joined the downtrend after disappointing comments on banks' bad loans by Financial Services Minister Hakuo Yanagisawa prompted investors to grab profits in bank shares after their recent rebound. The benchmark Nikkei was down 196.96 points or 1.76 percent at 10,992.44 at 0518 GMT, falling below 11,000 for the first time since October 1984, while the capital-weighted TOPIX index lost 22.80 points or 1.98 percent to 1,127.45.

Black Blade: "Grim"

Chris Powell

(08/29/2001; 00:20:09 MDT - Msg ID: 60430)

Mining Web's Wood joins Tocqueville's Hathaway

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/872Tim Wood of www.theminingweb.com joins
Tocqueville Gold Fund's Hathaway in belief
that U.S. government is probably rigging the
gold price.

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/872

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Chris Powell

(08/29/2001; 00:21:18 MDT - Msg ID: 60431)

South African Reserve Bank admits gold swaps ....

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/873... and says it has no more gold on deposit.

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/873

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Black Blade

(08/29/2001; 00:26:21 MDT - Msg ID: 60432)

Japan's jobless at record

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1512000/1512798.stm
Snippit:

Prime minister Koizumi's reform plans are under pressure Unemployment in Japan hit a record 5% in July, producing fresh calls for a supplementary budget to kick start the economy and sending shares back down to a 17-year low. The number of jobless grew by 230,000 year-on-year in July to 3.3 million, according to government figures.

Black Blade: Nonessential Japanese "Bones" cast upon the "Bone Pile." Recession gone Global - "Grim" - Better "Go for the Gold"

Gandalf the White

(08/29/2001; 00:36:25 MDT - Msg ID: 60433)

Most of Asia in RED INK !

Japan Nikkei 225 Wed. CLOSE 10,979.76 -209.64 -1.87%
Low for the day was 10,973.27
Hurry up Hang Seng
Hong Kong Hang Seng -- so far at midsession -- 12:35AM 11203.07 -97.46 -0.86%
<;-)

Netking

(08/29/2001; 00:55:57 MDT - Msg ID: 60434)

Sliding Silver - "blame it on short-selling" - CPM Group

http://www.spokesmanreview.com/news-story.asp?date=082801&ID=s1014474Interesting comment on silver from the spokesman review, worth a read:

SILVER PRICES usually perk up when the stock market falters. That's when investors have traditionally turned to precious metals as a storehouse of value.

But silver dropped to $4.11 per ounce this month -- the lowest price since 1993. The downturn came despite a slate of bad economic news and grim forecasts.

In the Silver Valley, residents don't need price charts to understand how low silver has dropped. They only have to count mine closures: The Sunshine Mine shut down in February. The Lucky Friday will begin laying off workers next month, leaving just a small crew by the end the year. Only the Galena Mine continues to operate at full production.

Other companies are also scaling back. Low prices prompted Barrick Gold Corp., one of the world's largest mining companies, to delay opening a huge gold and silver mine on the Chile-Argentina border.

A number of factors play into low silver prices, according to the CPM Group, a New York research firm that tracks precious metals. The firm attributes silver's weakness to short-selling by traders, investor disenchantment, and the strength of the U.S. dollar.

Speculative trading practices, such as short-selling, tend to have more of an influence on prices during the summer months, said Vanessa Motto, associate director for the CPM Group. Vacations cut into the pool of investors buying and selling silver futures, which gives those trades more clout, she said.

Short selling allows investors to take advantage of anticipated price declines. Essentially, they sell commodities they don't own, with the expectation they will be able to buy them later at a lower price, and profit from the difference.

Compounding the situation, short-selling traders have floated rumors for more than a year that the Chinese government is selling off its silver stocks, Motto said.

"The rumor has shown up in a lot of different places,'' she said. "But that's just not what's happening.''

Chinese companies have begun importing silver concentrates to refine, then exporting them to the world market, Motto said. The move is the result of freer market conditions in China. But some traders have mistaken greater quantities of silver coming out of the country for a sell-off by the Chinese central bank, Motto said.

The strength of the U.S. dollar also impacts how people view silver as an investment, she said. Though the economy is down, the dollar has remained very strong.

"If you have an account that pays interest in U.S. dollars, that's a more attractive investment than gold or silver right now,'' Motto said.

That's led to individual investors selling off their silver inventories, which also has influenced prices.

"A number of investors bought silver in anticipation of higher prices many years ago,'' Motto said. "They've become extremely disenchanted with where the price has been.''

Netking

(08/29/2001; 01:31:43 MDT - Msg ID: 60435)

Silver - PAAS from 2Q

Pan American Silver on silver(taken from second quarter results report)Snippit:

Silver prices in the quarter continued the disappointing downward trend set in late 2000, reaching a low of $4.30 in late June. July prices trended lower again, to a low of $4.19 on July 16.This is a 26-year low in real terms and, we believe, is simply unsustainable in the face of the massive silver deficit which has consumed over one billion ounces of silver inventories since 1990.

Despite economic weakness in major markets, silver use in
industrial and photographic markets has increased to date in 2001, according to a recent independent report by CPM Group, though silver use in jewelry and silverware registered a modest decline.

We believe mine production of silver will decline in 2001 and for the next few years due to the closure of many large
silver-producing mines and the opening of few new ones. The
silver market at present, like many other markets, is technically driven rather than fundamentally driven but it is inevitable that the fundamentals will be asserted at some time and this should be accompanied by a strong upward correction in silver prices. . . ."

Old Yeller

(08/29/2001; 01:43:01 MDT - Msg ID: 60436)

Black Blade ;#60427

Excellent fact filled post of the gravity of the challenges facing the US.It is truly a shame it has evolved this way;the remedy to all of these imbalances,especially those created post LTCM would have been far easier to address back in mid '98.That's what I've always felt,anyway.

Thanks for all the info you provide here,I truly appreciate your efforts,as so many others do,too .

As FOA says,"we watch this together,yes?"

Zenidea

(08/29/2001; 02:13:26 MDT - Msg ID: 60437)

Just a snippet &

http://m1.mny.co.za/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256AB6007644F4?OpenDocument&ByLine=Tim+Wood Just a wondering , FOA. do these initials stand for,
"For Or Against".:)

Belgian

(08/29/2001; 02:13:55 MDT - Msg ID: 60438)

Different Focus

The Forum-Talk, last night about the number (and quality) of *Gold* - bugs - advocates - activists - theorists...and others, is exactly what a < contained > Gold-Valuation is all about ! #GOLD# *MUST* remain extremely low profile !
For no other simple reason that an adjusted (correct)Goldvaluation was and still is { DEVASTATING } for nothing less than global *confidence*. Just close your eyes and fantazise about a POG into the thousands. Elaborate on all the consequences, possible. The most *(UNIVERSAL)* and unequivoqual Signal, you can imagine, that the past linear thinking has stopped ! It shouldn't surprise us at all that everything is done to avoid such a Gold-Confrontation.

I've come to the point, where, I'm wishing that the present Gold-Management, should continue for some time ! Yes, do keep falsifying everything, gentlemen...and give me (us) some more time to generate fiat in order to accumulate more of the managed yellow scapegoat. Thank you.

POG's price and time has come to such a state of hibernation that any valuation move will be *shocking*, without any doubt. All minds have fully adjusted to this extreme low Gold profile and it has been written off completely. This never happened before (short lifespan of past 30 yrs) ! That's why it is sooooooo different, today !

All emotional drive has been taken out of Gold and what remains is academic considerations and declining adrenaline shots for goldmine adepts. "Gold is out", is no cry anymore, but a state of mind for the absolute majority.

So, we have to keep on running with the stubborn few that discretely distribute the profound depts of Gold, to the ones involved in its management. Let them know, we know and inspire them with our Guide's thoughts. Me, convinced this is productive ! Do it. Visit the www parts of BIS/IMF/ECB etc...and send them the full TG's dosis. They will smile.

Funny that with the present global contraction, the POO keeps strengthening. Plus 2% in one day for that most basic stuff, named crude oil ! Aloha !
But, surely it doesn't matter, because we are living in a full service-oriented world and oil is insignificant. Shhhhwwwaaaww ! Those sweet nice economists. BB, saw you smiling, man.

Yes, Auspector...the "Washington" thing into that W.A.
Part of the management magic tricks. What is most important?
To know "how" they manage it or being convinced "that" they manage it ? Give us more time to accumulate, please.

There is no Forum/Petition/GATA - fear (angst). Only apathy and des-interest, due to lack of POG(ian) emotions, and academic boring insigths. The scale of global falsifications (illusions) has taken away the shining glitter of physical Gold. THE BIGGEST MISTAKE EVER !

How much fiat-volume is involved in daily interest rate and currency, tsunamis ? If all the GEs should suddenly realize that they are navigating into the wrong direction with their confetti-tankers....that's why GOLD is the biggest and most devastating mine to float around ! And do we really want total destruction ? Watch the USTB-30 yrs.
It is the distance between the gambling confetti tanker and the floating mega gold mine. Oil is the deepsea current.

SteveH

(08/29/2001; 03:30:42 MDT - Msg ID: 60439)

A note to TV MONEY Journalists

The pattern is like this: TV Financial news show invites guest economist to speak on the economy. They naturally invite a large financial institution, brokerage house, or fund manager person to 1) discuss the outlook on the economy and 2) suggest any stock picks. Different now is the manner in which the commentators ask the person if they own any stock or they show the record of the person's last picks months earlier.

The prevailing issue I have with this approach to these financial gurus is that they all seem to have an interest in maintaining the bull market at its current level. The market, they claim, is due for a turnaround only a few quarters away. Just a few more quarters and we will see the big turnaround, we will. Yes we will.

Perhaps I didn't notice this solid forward looking prognosticating stock market before, but were it to really have that forward looking ability, would it be at the level it is at now had it prognosticated properly this quarter and the last few? I think not.

So, are the media money moguls feeding us all a line by choosing wisely (or poorly as the case may actually be) their guest economists who will not break party lines with this prevailing belief that just a few more quarters and we should start to see a turnaround in the markets and therefore this is a good juncture to "be positioned" or "weighted" in some of this and in some of that stock?

It would seem so.

The problem with this approach to TV money evangelism is that no one wants to admit something that may lengthen the dilemma, therefore the TV money people find themselves in quite the quandary. It seems that slowly but surely they are realizing that they can't always have guests who talk their book and support the market through unrealistic claims of turnarounds that don't seem to materialize.

Soon we will be witness phrases by these folks that follow this logic. "Market analysts predict that the economy will briskly turnaround first quarter 2003. Today the DOW and NASDAQ both rallied on this better than expected news. Today CISCO stock went up 2% in anticipation of 2003 future sales." Sadly, we are witnessing similar events by the day.

This cheerleading by the TV financial folks of the markets is a great disservice to many investors and may be the root cause of the many lawsuits that investors are beginning to file in earnest against some of these financial pundits. Frankly I am surprised that we have not heard more of suits against these TV shows for the choice of the people they have aired over the past several years. I guess they can claim First Amendment protection against having allowed their guest speakers to push stocks and market indices that have lost significant value. Perhaps this is right, but somehow I believe that the First Amendment won't protect them because cheerleading markets to unsuspecting investors has cost lots of people billions of dollars.

I detect in TV Financial Hosts a concern over some of the advice their guests have given over the past years and see stories of accountability and responsibility but none of it is directed at themselves -- only at others. It is time for these shows to stop the cheerleading and to stop hiding behind the veil of journalistic independence and unbiased reporting, because what they are doing and have done is simply cheerleading stocks and bonds as the best investments period. When people can't make money in the short term, they say, "Hold for the longer term." When money is to be in the short term, they say, "Might be good for a quick trade."

"Stocks have historically gone up. Some indices have performed better than the rate of inflation for 30 years."

Well, Mr. and Mrs. TV, it is time to be true journalists and economists. It is time to live up to your professions code of ethics (if you have one) and give the big picture. Stop pushing for the bull, allow the bear equal time. Expose the rampant fraud and manipulation. Dig deeper into this inflation index that somehow tells people that it doesn't cost anymore to live, but people in increasing number are going bankrupt because what they are being told and what it costs them to live aren't in synch. Check out this GATA story that talks of official US gold reserves being used to prop up the dollar and make inflation look low. Find out if there is any evidence of a plunge protection team -- a sanctioned-at-highest-level-private- and-public-sector-look-the-other-way committee who prevents the markets from realizing their true value by using the future indices to keep market drops lower than they would be and helps rallies move higher. Tell us why 2:00pm many afternoons the DOW and the NASDAQ rally from otherwise down days on a more than statistically likely basis. Tell us how being owned by large corporations doesn't affect your editorial bias as indicated by the guests you choose and the messages they send. Tell us more about who the buyers of gold are and not the sellers?

In all MR and MRS TV Financial person, you have got some fixing to do before people respond to this cheerleading and stock market bull bias by simply voting with their push-button or know finger and electrically turn you off. Do your jobs and be real journalists without bias or shameful guest picking.

SteveH

(08/29/2001; 03:46:45 MDT - Msg ID: 60440)

Auspec and USUL

You ask where the post from Another is?

I have seen several posts (in fact I posted one I caught over at Kitco).

Usul believes, I think, that this may be a bogus post. Certainly it lacked the cryptic style of Another, but I sensed an authenticity in the message. Oddly no one but USUL commented on it, and a short one it was.

The message was definitly in the mold of both FOA and Another. These other boards are not off-limits to him or her. It is possible that it was Another post. But like USUL I have my doubts too.

Belgian

(08/29/2001; 04:24:34 MDT - Msg ID: 60441)

Tim Wood....Mining Web....South Africa.....

**** If POG is being managed, then there is no greater testament to its importance ****

Well, well, well, well...oh dear !

At last, a mouse-step forward, from a voice out of the oldest and greatest Gold-Heavon on earth, South Africa .

Suddenly, Gold, seems to be something more than fine jewelry. Isn't it sad, very sad, that non-South African people (the Gold Heros) have to come up with difficult to obtain evidence, to defend, that Gold blessed nation ! ?

BTW, are SA-citizens allowed to hold physical gold in possession and how much of it is hidden in their snake pits ?

Paralysing Anglo-American ...ism ? Feel free to fill in the dots.

Recently, I saw a documtary on North Korea. Millions of lilliputans who suffer deeply and are in the impossibility to do something. The nano thickness of *civilisation* was perfectly reminded to me. These millions of good people are also managed for the best...
Manage your own future now, with the warmest of all things, was something, I wished these people to hear.

Sir Zen and the idea of F-or O-r A-gainst. Spread his Thoughts and watch the different types of smilings of the listeners.
Think y're gone meet some happy people, don't you ? Right, I'm one of them.:-)))

Gold Trail Update

(08/29/2001; 06:09:55 MDT - Msg ID: 60442)

The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated

The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.

Black Blade

(08/29/2001; 06:19:34 MDT - Msg ID: 60443)

Economist Predicts That Recession Will Become Official on Wednesday

http://news.excite.com/news/pr/010828/ca-rosen-recession
Snippit:

BERKELEY, Calif., Aug. 28 /PRNewswire/ -- A noted economist predicted today that the Federal Government's revised Second Quarter GDP growth number scheduled to be released on Wednesday morning will be negative -- thereby signaling that the U.S. economy is officially in recession.

Black Blade: We will see in 15 minutes! I don't care about the "official" number, we are already there as I have been saying. Hang on for the ride!

Black Blade

(08/29/2001; 06:24:44 MDT - Msg ID: 60444)

IMF to cut global forecasts

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1514000/1514418.stm
Snippit:

IMF reportedly believes the outlook for 2002 will be tough The IMF has cut its forecast for world economic growth this year to 2.8% from 3.2%, Reuters reported on Wednesday citing unnamed sources at the international lender.

Black Blade: They had better "cut" again!

RE: Old Yeller - Thanks, we shall watch ominous events unfold and prepare for the coming storm together. Cheers!

Gotta go help keep the lights on in Kalifornia.

Black Blade

(08/29/2001; 06:33:26 MDT - Msg ID: 60445)

API gasoline stocks slide on bumper demand

Snippit:

NEW YORK, Aug 28 (Reuters) - Another week of bumper driving demand pulled U.S. gasoline stocks sharply lower last week, the American Petroleum Institute (API) said on Tuesday. Gasoline stocks fell 6.8 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 24 to 196.3 million barrels, pulling supplies nearly 3 million barrels below this time last year, the API said in its weekly supply report. Implied gasoline demand rattled along at 9.5 million barrels per day (bpd), only 200,000 bpd below the previous week's startlingly high figure, and some 600,000 bpd above this time last year. Gasoline stocks in the Midwest region -- where supplies are running short since an explosion brought Citgo's Illinois refinery down for six months -- fell 1.8 million barrels to drop 5.9 million barrels, or 11 percent, below last year.

Black Blade: This bit of information could get lost in today's shuffle. Very important - API stocks are very low and OPEC production cuts go into effect next week.

FLASH - GDP up 0.2% - Baloney! - Somehow I knew it. Looks like the markets will run higher today - The trap is set!

Tommy P

(08/29/2001; 07:16:28 MDT - Msg ID: 60446)

Yeh what ever?

escapethematrix

(08/29/2001; 08:20:03 MDT - Msg ID: 60447)

France attacks America's high-handed unilateralism

http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,543586,00.htmlSnippet:

The French foreign minister, Hubert V�drine, accused the United States of self-interest yesterday and said that the Bush administration was hindering the international community's efforts to solve the problems of globalisation.
In the latest Gallic attack on what is politely referred to in France as "American economic and cultural hegemony", Mr V�drine told French ambassadors in Paris that France would pursue its efforts towards "a humane and controlled globalisation, even if the new high-handed American unilateralism doesn't help matters

The propaganda war heats up....France seems to be gearing up for their boy to take over for Mr. D....The fireworks should begin with France's ascension to ECB leadership.

Galearis

(08/29/2001; 08:42:42 MDT - Msg ID: 60448)

@ Netking re silver

It is nice to be back from our seasonal wilderness excursions so I take this opportunity in this single post to say HELLO! again to the forum. Amazing summer really with those endless days of 90 degree temps up in boreal Canadaland.

The CPM piece is a breath of (logical) fresh air in a plethora of disinformation and spin. Thanks for posting this. On the other hand, as we all know, in the land of pms where firm information is often corrupted by vested interests in selling and marketing of a competive product or to cover indescretions, one can only hope that this time the logical is the reality.

In the back of ones mind a little voice keeps piping up with the reminder that in this derivative driven market environment (and especially the pms) low prices are not real and all will ONLY change when the fundamentals of supply and demand assert themselves ABSOLUTELY. In other words when supply ABSOLUTELY runs out. It is the only way to retain the faith.

Sometimes what goes around doesn't come back. (smile)

Bestest of regards,

G.

Econoclast

(08/29/2001; 09:44:18 MDT - Msg ID: 60449)

A VERY revealing statement by the head of the Bundesbank

``The best contribution monetary policy can make to growth and employment lies in stable prices.''

And we all know what form of money/monetary policy leads to stable prices.
Euro...good as gold?

Sierra Madre

(08/29/2001; 09:55:28 MDT - Msg ID: 60450)

Wim Duisenberg, Prez of ECB

Good Lord! How I wish that clown would GET A HAIRCUT!

With that foppish head of disheveled hair, carefully blown dried, and glasses that purposefully are on the point of falling off his nose...all he needs is an earring to fill out his "image".

Wim - looks like you'll never GROW UP! - An adolescent is President of the European Central BAnk.

Sierra

CoBra(too)

(08/29/2001; 10:22:39 MDT - Msg ID: 60451)

The Statist a Re-Visionist?

SM's seem to expect another revision of the Qu2 GDP revision - here's to the (re-)visionaries of the global economy.
Helmut Kramer, one of Austria's contemporary, though respected economists got 20 Minutes of prime time TV news today. His forecast for the global economy has been dismal, as he recounted economies around the globe contracting, while the rest is at the brink of recession. He went on to
explain that in the past 20 or so years recessions have been more or less contained locally, as better faring economies were able to bridge any slowdown.
This time it's a global phenomenon and the EU's stabilization (convergence) criteria are already under siege.

Seems to me the IMF global forecast 2002 revision may still be a tad optimistic.
Grim! As BB says - while I remedy Karen Sue's electronic soup kitchen lines. Grim, but true - cb2

site steward

(08/29/2001; 10:42:02 MDT - Msg ID: 60452)

Dow and Nasdaq both down a percent, more to come?

http://www.usagold.com/goldenchalkboard/gc_stockbubble.htmlIin case you missed these charts yesterday, have a long, lingering look.

Then give Centennial a call for a friendly chat. It's toll free!

R.

Belgian

(08/29/2001; 11:56:48 MDT - Msg ID: 60453)

Welteke - ECB

** To stabilize the value of money ** (the �)
A wonderfull and almost perfect " intention ".
But, what if the economic reality detoriates and political social-oriented Europ can't deliver and satisfy the welfare demands ? In the recent past, all growth in state-debt has been slowing dramatically. But what if this evil puts up his ugly head again ? Only adjusting Gold-Valuation can compensate and signal for unison discipline.
Managing a currency is not that evident under political (economic) pressures.

If the euro has the ambitions to dethrone the dollar in its reserve function...it will take some time. The state of the global economy might complicate that transition. How will the inevitable shock(s) be adsorbed or buffered ? Euro-action and dollar-reaction will be played around Gold and Oil. Who will change ideas during the process ?

Tommy P

(08/29/2001; 12:44:53 MDT - Msg ID: 60454)

Gold Swaps...Yes says S.africa

http://m1.mny.co.za/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256AB7005EE162?OpenDocument&ByLine=Tim+WoodWell at least someone admitting it, oh but with who??

site steward

(08/29/2001; 12:56:24 MDT - Msg ID: 60455)

Thoughts for Belgian on element of "time"

You proposed rightly enough, "If the euro has the ambitions to dethrone the dollar in its reserve function...it will take some time."

Imagine this alternative as food for thought.

Just for the pure joy of a thought exercise, allow yourself to imagine that the "euro-builders" do not aspire for the euro to become a fully fledged reserve asset. That is to say, imagine they to not seek to have it *replace* the replace the dollar in reserve function as was seen under the past international system.

Simply put, imagine that it is only a more level playing field that is sought -- dethroning the paper dollar reserve function simply to eliminate the privilege it bestows upon a singular nation.

And here is the point. Certainly, it would take time for the paper euro to rise in stature (and confidence) as a usurper to ascend the throne in the role as "reserve asset". Gold, however, as a "free agent" has the stature to assume this reserve role immediately -- in the turn of a page.

What could the "euro-builders" aspire to if they know that gold can be the unassailable king of reserves -- form and function? Let's think about this...

If hyperinflation lies ahead for U.S. prices as the dollar loses its international reserve throne to gold, I imagine the euro-builders would feel content in filling the international role of "price denomination" as the dollar fails to provide this meaningful "measurement" function.

It seems to me it would not take long in the international sphere for marked-to-market gold to replace the dollar (and all other paper assets) in reserve function. And now nearly at parity, it would not be overly difficult for "euro" to replace/dethrone "dollar" in price denomination. From there, everything follows as we live day by day...

Again, food for thought on the possible speed at which we may adjust to a new reality.

Just me, walking the line. Fact or fantasy? You decide.
Randy

Rockgrabber

(08/29/2001; 12:56:48 MDT - Msg ID: 60456)

New concept for a nations money

1.) Bundesbank, "The best contribution monetary policy can make to growth and employment lies in stable prices.

2.) Mr Welteke, "The ECBs goal is not to steer economic growth but to stabalize the value of money".

3.) then the French accuse the U.S. of "American economic and cultural hegemony".

With pressure building on the U.S. economy and our dollar, gold will soon be the weapon to release. Its just to bad you cant leverage the stuff. Physical gold is a leverage play. Matter of fact right now PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE DERIVITIVE. Its price is reliant on the Paper market, therefore making it the derivitive the way I see it.

Old Yeller

(08/29/2001; 12:57:16 MDT - Msg ID: 60457)

This is good,very enjoyable read

http://www.sandspring.com/charts2001/cdj082901.html
Barclay Leib takes the hedge trimmer to the eminent Professor Dornbusch.Pretty sound refutation of an article that seemed to take liberty with historical fact and the reality of the present dubious monetary system.

Nice chart to boot.

Econoclast

(08/29/2001; 12:58:23 MDT - Msg ID: 60458)

That was a large and sarcastic question mark at the end of my last post

If a currency is subject to management/manipulation through its fiat character, it will be when it becomes necessary or desirable to do so. Let's not forget that "the new boss is same as the old boss".

If Americans could be educated/re-programmed to believe that every person should hold even just one ounce as their own personal reserve, we would outweigh the federal reserve.

There's not enough gold in the world for every human to have a one ounce reserve.

Belgian

(08/29/2001; 13:20:03 MDT - Msg ID: 60459)

The next decade

http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htmIntuitively, we all feel that we are rather at "the end" of something *old* and not at "the beginning" of something *new* . Kondratieff cycles try to find the peaks and troughs in this cyclic waving. Some more at the above link about China and Debt for the next decade. And all this non dogmatic and very open minded. Nice work !

Belgian

(08/29/2001; 13:56:18 MDT - Msg ID: 60460)

@ Randy

Yes Sir, I do see my mistake of looking as an european with my nose, too close, at the � first and Gold as secondary.
It is the other way around. Clever you !

Auspec mentionned the Washington element in the W.A. and my hasty answer is bottering me somewhat. Did the euro-builders and the hyperinflation-victim (US$) agreed on something like a timetable for sharing (managing) an orderly transition ? The US$, knowing very well that it has reached the end of its timeline an stricking a deal with the well prepared euro-builders, asking the dollar not to exaggerate on the Gold-Management ? Only a non-binding gentlemens agreement of course, where both (� + $) retain the right to change ideas along the path ?

The old dollar (to be dethroned) is buying and getting some time to make the necessary arrangements with the cheap oil
providers, to compromise on oil flow ? A case of mutual interest with a healthy dose of egoism and distrust in a non confrontational atmosphere. That's how I should have been doing it.

The reason for this thought is that IMVHO, POG should already have showed an anticipating behaviour on things to come. POG-rise for � defense and disposing off from dollar-reserves.

�/$ relation is too peacefull in proportion to what's at stake.

site steward

(08/29/2001; 13:59:31 MDT - Msg ID: 60461)

Fed adds permanent and temporary reserves today

Through the outright purchase of Treasuries, the Fed added $456 million to reserves to the nation's banking system on a "permanent" basis, while it also conducted overnight repurchase agreements to temporarily add $4.25 billion to reserves.

Overnight liquidity was a wee bit firm, fed funds trading at 3.56 percent.

R.

Belgian

(08/29/2001; 14:51:55 MDT - Msg ID: 60462)

Reactions

Randy : forgot * Tanks * for your gentle mentoring !

Old Yeller : As a student, I found that /// ?? /// again a very typical example of a Gold-illiterate. Much relieved that Sandsprings, reacted appropiately on his rambling.
This professor can join SteveH's money-journalists. (nice post SteveH).

Econoclast : Love your // one man, one ounce //.
But let us change this Universal Gold Insurance into a 3 month survival kit. 3 x 1.000 $ = 3.000 $ or a minimum of 10 ounces at present paper value. Do remember that all US citizens together collect 1 Trillion $ per year on interest rate-income, on their bonds. Suggest that they all invest these interest income this year, on gold and buy the global stash of 140.000 tonnes in one go ! Oh boy. (140.000 tonnes of gold at 300$/ounce = 1 Trillion $)

Tommy P: South Africa/WGC/Miningweb/and much others...just think, strictly *MINING* . They stubbornly refuse to think
** GOLD ** ! I made the same terrible mistake !!!! The difference is that I've changed my mind drastically in contrast with for example WGC, that has changed, previous automatic mailings with additional loads of miningnews, at present. Their product is of permanent diminishing importance. They probably risk one day to forget that their product is *GOLD*. Oh irony !

Eurobedtime

Interstate

(08/29/2001; 15:26:04 MDT - Msg ID: 60463)

@Sierra Madre

If you get upset about someone's hair and glasses, then please let me send you a reading list of things to REALLY be concerned about that will/may affect the lives of all of us.

I work with adolescents and it seems to me that the adolescent is Sierra Madre.

This is not meant to sound sarcastic, only surprise at your post because you normally write about your good ideas and far thinking thoughts. (I am a long time lurker.)

Netking

(08/29/2001; 15:35:38 MDT - Msg ID: 60464)

Galearis / Belgian

Sir Galearis(60448)Good comment & welcome back Sir. You can swap that Canadian climate with mine, now! The silver physical supply & damand dynamics WILL sooner or later drive this market out of a comatosed manipulative impasse, I believe(IMVHO)it will be sooner.

Sir Belgian - Good to have your Euro spin on things back here too after your time away with nature. Any reports from the brother in law in the M/E?

R Powell

(08/29/2001; 16:26:38 MDT - Msg ID: 60465)

Netking and silverbugs

Thanks for the silver info (60434) and link.
It mentioned mine shutdowns, sales from China and disenchanted investors selling (throwing in the towel). These were all touched on briefly in my 8/26/01 post reporting on some of what I found in the World Silver Survey. (Sunday post 60281)
The article you refered to states that China is not selling silver but rather importing silver which is used to manufacture an export containing silver. The Survey states, many times, in no uncertain terms that China is dishoarding. Perhaps there is truth in both opinions? I've encountered this type of dubious reporting in cotton where cotton is exported to Caribbean based but American owner mills to become fabric which then re-enters the U.S. Should the raw cotton leaving be catagorized as an export and the incoming fabric as import simply because the cotton left the bounds of the country (to be processed with cheaper labor). Neither the cotton nor the fabric ever left American ownership. This confuses the import/export story in cotton and gives conflicting numbers depending upon who you listen to.
Concerning mine closures, I remember seeing that Apex Mining had been put on hold due to the poor silver price. Apex is the mine Soros is developing (he owns a good piece of it) in the Bolivian Andes.
Both the report you link to and the Silver Survey agree that investors have sold having become tired of waiting for profits. Isn't this a sign of a market bottom?? I hope so!
Rich

auspec

(08/29/2001; 16:29:27 MDT - Msg ID: 60466)

C.M, stew & Belgian/WA

Thanks, all, for your input on the US {lack of} reaction to the WA. As much as this topic has been thrashed over, I still think there is a message behind this lack of official response. When these players act different than their history and nature predicts they would act, we are best suited to 'keep our eyes peeled' for the reasons.
Most assume that the US was caught off guard by the WA, but we must remember this was the Clinton Administration in office at the time. They called out their spinmeisters with regularity, and if they were not party to the WA, or if it was really that devastating to them, we would have clearly heard about it. Does anyone remember an official response, I surely do not?
Again, if there was any meat behind this 15 country announcement they would have ceased leasing altogether or curtailed it substantially. Didn't happen. In retrospect it looks like a simple gold allocation process 'contract' that so many have esposed. What did it really change, as this process was already ongoing? It certainly scared the shorts off a few pants {vice versa}, but order and decency was quickly restored. The gold investigators were able to pick up all the clues left from this short lived panic and its extinguishment, thank you. The manipulators are finding fewer and fewer places to hide, dark rocks notwithstanding.
More thoughts on the way subsequently,
a

R Powell

(08/29/2001; 16:57:27 MDT - Msg ID: 60467)

Hello Interstate

Interesting name. Are you a traveller of the states and do you, perchance, travel on 18 wheels? I've promised myself and the misses that we will travel the country right after either POG reaches $800 or POS reaches $30. Either or will do.
Sierra Madre, Your hair comment immediately brought to mind a picture of Albert Einstein with his totally unkempt look.
Rich

Solomon Weaver

(08/29/2001; 17:02:30 MDT - Msg ID: 60468)

Fortune says send to a friend...so friends....mainstream press noticing

http://www.fortune.com/indexw.jhtml?channel=artcol.jhtml&doc_id=203713CONSUMER DEBT
Honey, Can We Afford It?
U.S. consumers are keeping the world economy afloat. But they're up to their eyeballs in debt.
FORTUNE
Monday, September 3, 2001
By Anna Bernasek

Send to a Friend Print Subscribe to Fortune

In ancient times, of course, no one had access to credit cards. So when Damocles wanted to attend a sumptuous banquet at the royal palace, he had to agree to some unusual terms. To teach him a lesson about the perilous nature of his desires, King Dionysius had a sword hung from the ceiling over his seat, suspended by a single hair. For the entire feast, poor Damocles had to remain in that precarious position, which would wreck just about anyone's appetite.

Today some economists think the U.S. economy is experiencing its own sword of Damocles: consumer debt. Just as agreeing to sit under that blade allowed Damocles to partake in a feast he really couldn't afford, record consumer debt has enabled consumers to buy--and keep on buying. Now, with business spending, the stock market, and major world economies all in retreat, American consumers alone are keeping not just the U.S. economy but pretty much the whole darned globe afloat. If they handed out medals at the U.N. for such things, American citizens would surely be in line for one.

Let's hope it lasts, because if for some reason Americans stop borrowing, consumer spending will crumble and there will be absolutely nothing between the world economy and one very ugly recession. Worse still, an avalanche of household defaults followed by tight credit could make any downturn drag on--and on and on. So the question is: With the entire world economy perched so precariously, will U.S. consumer debt deliver the final, crushing blow?

Probably not, but before we get to that, let's look at the facts. Consumer debt has sailed into uncharted territory. Household borrowing had been growing steadily since the mid-1980s before positively exploding during the last decade. It now stands at a record $7.4 trillion, almost double what it was at the beginning of the 1990s. Interest payments as a percentage of income have jumped from 2.2% to 3.2% since 1995 even though interest rates themselves have been falling. Debt service as a percentage of income is close to 14.5%, another record. And for the first time in history, American households are carrying a debt burden equal to their combined after-tax income. Obviously, there's a level at which debt-fueled consumption suddenly stops helping and becomes really, really bad for the economy. Trouble is, no one is sure exactly where the tipping point is, which makes it awfully hard to predict how this whole debt thing is going to play out.

What we do know, however, is that it doesn't necessarily have to end badly. In fact, there's good reason to expect that households can get through this period intact. For instance, falling energy prices, tax cuts, and lower interest rates are doing pretty much what you'd expect them to do--boost household income. Even on the employment front, which is the biggest threat to household finances, the outlook is fairly promising. Data for July showed that the number of jobs in the economy was still contracting, but at a much slower pace; meanwhile, the unemployment rate--4.5%--remained near its historic low. And while household net worth has fallen 10% in the past 12 months, it's still close to an all-time high--an impressive $41 trillion, 20% above the historical average.

There are plenty of other reasons to be chipper, and we'll get to them soon. But first let's look at what can go wrong, which, unfortunately, happens to be a lot. For one thing, such extraordinarily high debt levels have made consumers much more vulnerable to financial stress. "The American consumer is like an athlete on steroids," says Robert Manning, author of the book Credit Card Nation and a professor at the Rochester Institute of Technology. "He's artificially pumped up and not as healthy as he looks."

There are already indications that financial stress may be on the rise. Credit card delinquencies are at their highest level in almost nine years, and personal bankruptcy filings are increasing. Some groups are more at risk than others. Low-income households in particular have borrowed up a storm, and one-fifth of them are now classified as heavily indebted (with debt payments above 40% of income), according to the Federal Reserve Bank survey of consumer finances. Homeowners may have taken on a greater risk too. The rule of thumb used to be that a household spent at most 20% of income on rent or a mortgage. Now one in five two-income families is spending more than half its income on housing.

Clearly, these folks need to rein in their borrowing, but if less leveraged consumers also suddenly lose their appetite for debt, the slowdown could take a turn for the worse. In June, U.S. consumer borrowing fell for the first time in 3 1/2 years. And that may already be having an impact: In the second quarter, consumer spending moved back in line with income, after running ahead by about half a percentage point for much of the past decade. The savings rate has also leveled off after years of decline, a sign that Americans are paying more attention to their finances. "There are limits to how much debt people are willing to take on," says David Levy, chief economic forecaster at the Jerome Levy Institute, "and we could be nearing that point." If consumer debt really has stopped growing, it would be hard to match the eye-popping GDP gains of recent years. And in a recession, households may default, setting in motion another negative cycle.

Netking

(08/29/2001; 17:05:59 MDT - Msg ID: 60469)

Rich. / Ag bugs

I read your weekend post, another good one from you Sir Rich. The PRC answer may namely be that yes (per WSS report) there is some going out by way of export from the PRC from the Co's that refine silver concentrates then export these to the world market, maybe this is just counted as "PRC Silver Exports" period? We would need to check how much is coming into the PRC by way of concentrates first to assess the net movement in/out. Hence the reports export figures may indeed and probably are accurate but this may not include any "Central originated" sales.

There is too much current & upcoming demand for silver for the PRC to be dumping from "Central Stores" at 5,000 year inflation adjusted low's in the POS(IMO) especially for the benefit of it's main "rival".

Solomon Weaver

(08/29/2001; 17:26:00 MDT - Msg ID: 60470)

Silver

http://www.itds.treas.gov/prec_metals.htm"Most of the silver comes from Mexico, Peru, Canada, the United States and Australia (ranked in order of total production). Obviously, the Americas have near monopoly on silver production. It is estimated the total world silver production since 4000 BC is about 40 billion ounces - which compares with the world's gold inventory of approximately 4 billion ounces. China ranks as the number one world consumer of silver - nearly all used in the photography industry.

Silver's price hit an all-time high of $52.50 per ounce in 1980, subsequently falling to its recent history low of $3.51 in 1991. Among the most prominent precious metals (gold, platinum and silver), silver tends to be the most volatile in price. In the 1979/80 precious metals bull market, silver's price increase was double gold's. And during the 1982 price surge, silver tripled gold's percent price increase. In the 1985/87 rally, silver just nosed out gold (96% to 79%). However, silver's percent run-up in the 1993-bull market was again twice that of gold. "
International Trade Data System
.............

Interestingly enough the author compares silver's total production history of 40 billion ounces to the "inventory" of gold. What he doesn't point out is that over 90% of that silver seems to have been used.

No big surprise that over half of the worlds historical production of silver has been in the last 30 years....at the same time, we have continued to use up any and all freely available stock.....o.k....so now, we come to the next 30 years....where we need to make about 300% more high tech products than we did in the last 30 years, as we bring the poor into the mainstream....like building enough Digital Cameras and computers to eliminate all those paper photos.

poor old silver solomon

BR549

(08/29/2001; 17:30:12 MDT - Msg ID: 60471)

The Value of the Dollar�

I maintain that if the value of the dollar is expressed in US$, then the definition is redundant.

What is the value of the EURO? It is worth x amount of FRN's?

What is the value of Gold? So many FRN's to the oz.

What is the real value of the $? If you use a word's definition that means the same thing, then the definition does not mean anything�What is a Pitcher? A Pitcher is someone who pitches doesn't really define what the definition of the word pitcher is. Likewise to say that the value of the dollar is---What is a dollar? A Dollar is what dollars will buy in dollars, or gold, or other currencies, is the same thing.

Equally as worthless is a definition is the valueless question of what is the value of Gold if the value of gold is what Gold is worth in dollars. I maintain that all CB's worldwide mutual goals are to stabilize the value of their money. Why, the Price stability of their currency against the value of the dollar is the top goal of ALL of the Central Banks for the benefit and maximum profitability of their banksers.

When AG writes his memoirs a few years from now, he will admit to the Fed policy of attempting to maintain an unofficial gold standard of the last few years of $275/oz. +-.

Why? Because the U$ wanted to maintain the value of the US$. To stabilize world currencies. Why? You know why.

As long as we think in terms of value in FRN's, instead of gold, then we will never know real values.

Let me go comb my hair, clean my glasses, put on a clean shirt, and I'll post this.

auspec

(08/29/2001; 17:38:47 MDT - Msg ID: 60472)

WA Continued

site steward and ALLPlease bear with me as I re-think through this 'watershed event', the WA, a little more retrospective clarity should be most beneficial. I certainly know the announcement was/is important, please don't misunderstand, but WHY exactly was/is it such a claimed 'turning point'?
The announcement that gold shall remain an integral monetary asset is close to meaningless, gold is the one who decides which bank/country/entity has a glittering future, not vice versa. What has been done differently by these 15 countries in relationship to the significance of gold to their monetary policies since September of 1999? Still 'leasing w/o policing' it seems {I'm a Johnny Cochrane wannabee}.
Does it simply come down to the supposition that these 15 countries won't unload the entire hoards? Most gold officionados seriously doubt that countries are stupid enough to go to that level anyway.
Some believe the WA has given a clear line of demarcation between the gold 'holding' countries and the gold 'dumping' countries. That's where I need more clarification! These 15 countries love their gold so much that they stand idly by while the BIS, IMF and other CB affiliates perpetuate the fraud of gold manipulation? What wonderful Au allies, eh? Maybe they simply patiently await the inevitable. If there is some huge chasm between various CB elitists, the boundaries are beyond muddled, at least to this advocate.
Was the WA simply stating 'this much and no more', yet really meaning 'this much and more PRN'? France as the ringleader?
So many questions, yet it all comes down to this: What in retrospect really makes the WA such a crucial dividing point in time?
Thanks in advance.
auspec

Canuck

(08/29/2001; 18:34:20 MDT - Msg ID: 60473)

@auspec

Excellent points. My first impression of the WA statement (limit gold sales to 400 tonnes/year) was very negative. I still don't understand the spike. If the 'union' was already selling in that neighbourhood what difference does/would the agreement make? In terms of the leasing what concrete evidence do we have that it has stopped?

It seems the WA 'leasing' and 'limits on sales' is being superceded by 'swaps' anyway.

This brings me back to a question I asked a year ago. Are the 'non-friendly' CB's on a swapping merri-go-round? That is to say that A swaps with B, B to C, C to A? The impression can easily be made that piles are being sold. What if the CB gold still remains in the order of 33,000 tonnes?

What the hell is REALLY going on. I think we are being duped
(at least to some degree). There is a key piece to the puzzle that we are missing. I hope GATA's upcoming bombshell brings this to light.

Canuck.

site steward

(08/29/2001; 18:51:50 MDT - Msg ID: 60474)

Reply to Belgian (msg#: 60460) on the "Washington" aspect of the WA

The only thing I'm comfortable saying about the role of Washington within the "Washington Agreement on Gold" I put forth in yesterday's note on the subject addressed to Cavan Man and auspec. Perhaps you already saw it? (msg#: 60422 near the end of the day)

Regarding the specific points you raised about intercontinental (transatlantic) agreements and cooperation on timeliness of gold/money/oil/settlement events, I must say that reading the commentary of FOA at the Gold Trail is the best insight I expect to find anywhere about these matters as the days unfold. I invite you to join me reading the Trail.

R.

PS. On an additional, unrelated note, I've noted the special attention paid today to comments by Bundesbank President (an ECB council member) -- "The best contribution monetary policy can make to growth and employment lies in stable prices." This primary focus on "price stability" has been the official "company line" of the Bundesbank for many years (the bank having been formed after WWII with fresh memories of national monetary hyperinflation), and this policy of price stability as a "guiding light" has only recently, in the past several years, gained the consensus of central bankers everywhere. As administrations change, you tend to hear subtle variations on this theme, always couched within the requirements of any binding legislation.

Case in point. For America's part, the Employment Act of 1946 and the 1978 Full Employment and Balance Growth Act define the Congressional mandate put upon the Fed as expectations for the Fed Board of Governors to pursue the following: objectives of economic growth commensurate with the economy's potential to expand, high level of employment; price stability; and moderate long-term interest rates.

Anyone who knows a thing or two about "free market" economic systems knows that a bank has no direct ability (outside of hiring additional persons for their own staff) to dictate high levels of national employment. Responsibility for that outcome is more properly found in the hands of those policy makers with jurisdiction over the national framework of laws that influence the suitability of the economic climate for businessmen and entrepreneurs. A wise central bank realizes it can only contribute to full employment insofar as it helps to foster such a suitable environment through the elements that it CAN influence. In this regard, working toward price stability is the proper means toward that (improperly legislated) mandate of full employment.

This is what I was driving at in my #60410 post yesterday where I said, "At the end of the day, the most we can reasonably expect of our monetary officials is to conduct policy in such a way that shall foster a monetary/banking system conducive to general price stability, the economic foundation upon which individuals and businesses may plan for the future and grow."

It is in the central banks� interpretation and subtle articulation over time of their various legislative mandates that broadcasts to each other and to careful observers the intended or likely thrust of their official actions. Through this you may begin to better understand why Mr. Welteke would trouble himself to articulate the following (as was adeptly picked out by FOA). Welteke said, "Firstly, it isn't the ECB council's mandate to steer economic growth, but to stabilize the value of money. Price stability is the top goal of the European System of Central Banks. The U.S. Federal Reserve has a mandate that includes growth and employment targets. Secondly, the ability to fine-tune economic growth is obviously being overestimated, and the time lag for monetary and fiscal policy impetus to take effect is obviously being underestimated."

In an obvious (now that you know what to look for) attempt to mitigate the apparent effect of this legislative shackle upon proper and efficient monetary policy (at least in the eyes of their peers) we may occasionally see the Fed offer comments similar to the that offered in 1991 by then Fed vice-chair David Mullins. He articulated "our primary goal is to maximize growth," which was his obligatory nod to the Congressional mandate, followed closely by the statement that "price stability is a means to that growth."

Clearly, Bundesbank President Welteke would be more comforted to hear an alternate variation of those words, perhaps as such: "within the latitude of our multi-objective Congressional mandate, we pursue the objective of price stability as our key means toward the practicable advancement of economic growth and full employment." Note the subtle difference? But again, those are my words, not the Fed's.

As it is, if Congress holds the Fed to task for stimulating economic growth and full employment (something that the Fed does not have the power to do beyond fostering stable money as mentioned above), then political pressure will call upon the Fed to ease monetary policy beyond the bare minimum otherwise needed to keep the banking system liquid through the current economic downturn. A central bank can only save solvent banks suffering from temporary illiquidity, it cannot by itself stimulate sound employment and growth through monetary policy. The fact that Congress might feel that it actually CAN is quite unsettling, particularly if you are willing to forecast a reasonable vision of the consequences of imprudently lax policy measures.

Waiter: "And for you, sir?"
Uncle Sam: "We shall have the hyperinflation."
Waiter: "As you wish, sir."

R.

R Powell

(08/29/2001; 19:22:05 MDT - Msg ID: 60475)

Site Steward

The information you gave yesterday (60410) concerning the a weaker dollar leading to inflation was printed on page A2 of today's Investor's Business Daily.
"Cleveland Fed. to manufacturers:
Weak dollar won't cure your ills"

Randy, you also said that you were contacted "with regard to a specific subject matter" which you then declined to elaborate on.
I've always thought one should not ask trivia questions that one can not answer.
Or, Okay, we give up. What's the big secret that you said you have and we can't guess??
At least some hints! You know you want to tell.
Rich

megatron

(08/29/2001; 19:52:38 MDT - Msg ID: 60476)

SA Gold swaps

1 down, many to go.

Canuck

(08/29/2001; 20:08:04 MDT - Msg ID: 60477)

@ site steward

Funny.....I saw Mr.Asher old post today as well and noted the 'waiter and Uncle Sam conversation'.

Very basic question about the 'flation debate. I feel if the oversupply of money 'chases' the undersupply of goods first one might expect inflation. Conversely, if an undersupply (is there such a thing?) of money 'chases' an oversupply of goods deflation occurs.

So we had (say in the last few years) a huge supply of money 'ahead of the goods curve' creating modest inflation.
Now we experience an inventory glut, a la deflation above.

In its simplest form, can one parallel inflation/deflation to leading and lagging supply of money/goods. Sort of a ratio; a perfect matching of above would result in a quotient of 1, above one inflation, below 1 deflation.

I think I'm blabbering now.

Black Blade

(08/29/2001; 20:13:55 MDT - Msg ID: 60478)

Forbes Body Count

http://www.forbes.com/2001/01/30/layoffs.html
"Dem Bones" keep piling up.

Black Blade

(08/29/2001; 20:17:29 MDT - Msg ID: 60479)

Asia Getting Slaughtered

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Here we go again. This time it's a race between the Nikkei and Hang Seng for sub 10,000. Japanese banks are getting creamed now. Rumors of insolvent Japanese banks with perhaps trillions of yen in nonperforming loans persist. This could be the next scandal to break the Nikkei. We wait to see what unfolds.

Black Blade

(08/29/2001; 20:23:35 MDT - Msg ID: 60480)

Tokyo Stocks Lower, Banks Extend Slide

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010829/business_markets_japan_stocks_dc.html
TOKYO (Reuters) - Tokyo stocks opened lower on Thursday as an extended slide on Wall Street hit high-tech stocks, while the key Nikkei average's tumble to 17-year lows rekindled concerns over latent losses in banks' shareholdings. Weaker-than-expected industrial output data for July also hurt Tokyo shares by underscoring the dire situation of the Japanese economy. ``The output results were worse than our expectations. The fact that July figures came lower than the revised expectations of the government shows that the situation is very bad,'' said Shinichi Sato, manager at Tokyo-Mitsubishi Securities' investment strategy division.

Major banks fell across the board, extending Wednesday's sharp slide, which came after Financial Services Minister Hakuo Yanagisawa said the outstanding balance of bad loans at major banks would likely remain near current levels through fiscal 2003.

Black Blade: Hello! What's this?

Black Blade

(08/29/2001; 20:32:08 MDT - Msg ID: 60481)

Former Workers at Lucent See Nest Eggs Vanish, Too

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nyt/20010829/bs/former_workers_at_lucent_see_nest_eggs_vanish_too_1.html
Snippit:

Not only are many former Lucent employees out of work, but their savings have largely evaporated because they were stashed in Lucent stock. Many people lose jobs, and many people invest in their company's stock. But the problem is acute at Lucent, which is cutting 30,000 jobs this year. A significant share of those people started at the company years ago, when its operations were part of AT&T, and they came to think of their company as rock solid.

Black Blade: Oops! Some people just refuse to prepare. A lot of unfortunate stories here. - Tales from the "Bone Pile"

Sierra Madre

(08/29/2001; 20:50:10 MDT - Msg ID: 60482)

BR5+4=9....definitions....

You ask "What is a pitcher?"

-A pitcher is something you put in a frame and hang on the wall.

Sorry, couldn't help it.

Interstate: the above proves that I am an adolescent...but not a nasty one, at least.

About hair: I didn't think that comment about Wim Duisenberg's hair would provoke any reaction at all. And if Einstein had an unkempt head of hair - well, he was, after all: Einstein.

I still think that manliness does not combine with foppishness, and Wim Duisenberg looks like a complete fop. Not so Einstein.

Sierra

NB.- Profundity does not preclude levity.

White Rose

(08/29/2001; 21:05:51 MDT - Msg ID: 60483)

Municipal bonds vs. Bond Funds

My wife and I recently inherited a brokerage account. It consists mainly of a long list of municipal bonds plus some bond funds and a few stocks.

I recall the story of the Heartland bond funds (one lost 79% overnight). The problem was that a new audit changed the valuation of the entire fund because of concerns that the bonds were not liquid enough (i.e. if the fund had to be liquidated, the bonds could not be sold for as much as the previous auditor had stated).

The risk for the bonds can be reduced by holding them until they mature. But there is no way to protect oneself from a bond fund that self-destructs. Or so I think.

We do hold 400 oz of gold as a hedge if the oncoming financial tidal wave takes out the bond issuer's ability to pay or takes out the value of the dollar.

The total value of the brokerage account is just under $400,000. I throw myself on the mercy of my gold loving bear-friends: what should we do with this account? Leave it alone? Sell the stocks? Sell the stocks and the bond funds? Sell everything?

Thanks for your help

Netking

(08/29/2001; 21:06:31 MDT - Msg ID: 60484)

"Logical Euro" (a move to) backed by UK's Hain

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/uk_politics/newsid_1516000/1516120.stmSnippit:
Europe Minister Peter Hain has given another strong indication that the government regards entry to the euro as inevitable. In an interview with the left-wing magazine Tribune, Mr Hain said the euro "was marching on" and that the decision could not be delayed indefinitely. His comments, reported in the Independent, seemed to expand on the official government line that membership of the euro depends on the Chancellor's five economic tests.

The euro is marching on and no one thinks the decision can be postponed for ever. But the Foreign Office played down Mr Hain's comments and insisted they did not go further than official policy. . . . Mr Hain said: "The euro is marching on and no one thinks the decision can be postponed for ever, apart from the right of the Tory party. . .

Sierra Madre

(08/29/2001; 21:39:17 MDT - Msg ID: 60485)

White Rose...what to do with some $400,000 US

Here goes, with good will, what I'd tell my daughter:

1. Get out of debt.
2. Put 20% in .999 gold coins, put them away and don't think about them for five years. Store them in a bank.
3. Listen to Black Blade: put 30% into Oil and Gas Stocks, and keep listening to what he says, for further hints.
4. Carefully investigate "special situations", put no more than 5% into that area.
5. Put 5% into John Hathaway's Toqueville Fund of gold mining stocks.
6. Keep the rest in a fund invested in SHORT TERM government securities, NO LEVERAGE NO DERIVATIVE MANOUVERS.
7. When the S&P index registers a P/E of 12 TO 15, and dividends as a percentage of price are say, 3%, re-enter the market and buy shares in seasoned companies with solid balance sheets and a long record of conservative administration. Buy the shares only with the object of receiving dividend income - not for a possible rise in the price of the stock.

This is only my opinion and I am not a qualified investment counsellor. Do your own homework.

Hope this is helpful!

Sierra

John Doe

(08/29/2001; 21:44:17 MDT - Msg ID: 60486)

Canuck

In reality, inflation/deflation is spread across multiple areas. I'm not sure if the economy can be characterized as simply exhibiting one or the other or "tipping" from one to the other.

That we had and continue to have above GDP inflation of the $US money supply is undisputed. However the effects of this inflation did not, or were not allowed to manifest either broadly or evenly throughout the economy.

This past cycle we had inflation in the following price levels (in the US):

Stocks (mostly tech and big cap).
Bonds (most of the time).
Real estate (late in the cycle).
Energy (even later in the cycle).
Taxes.
High tech labor (mid-cycle on).
US$.

We had deflation of price levels in the following:

Most commodities (including the object of this site).
Energy (most of the cycle).
Low tech labor (flat/down most of the cycle).
Most tech equipment.
Prices of general "stuff" (mostly due to imports & high $).
Foreign currencies.

Note that productivity and the CPI were concentrated in the second list, and even then they pulled out food and energy when it suited and allowed faux accounting to hide labor costs esp. in the high tech area.

So what was this last cycle, flat, inflationary, disinflationary, deflationary? I dunno. I'd guess mostly paper asset inflationary, with a few interesting exceptions.

What's the downleg to look like? My guess, mostly a reverse of the up leg, but occurring on a near-stagnant money supply:

Falling prices:

Most stocks.
Bonds (esp. corporates first, then all eventually).
Real estate, slow at first, then faster.
Taxes (please, oh please).
Labor (across the board, or stagnating at best).
Most tech equipment.
Autos in general (esp. used & used gas-guzzlers).
US$.

Rising prices:

Energy.
Certain "commodities", especially if relatively rare or useful (will gold become "useful" again? -- it better, we're all betting on it!).
Prices of "stuff" in general (due to imports vis-a-vis a devaluation of the US$).
Foreign currencies.

If this came to pass, how would you characterize it, inflation or deflation? I'm sure it will seem like the worst deflation in history to many, but generally, all that is happening is that paper assets are being (finally) discounted from extreme overvalue, and that over-capacity in certain areas (and its attendant labor) is being cleared.

Chris Powell

(08/29/2001; 21:45:03 MDT - Msg ID: 60487)

Greenspan was wary of Treasury "initiatives" in 1995

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/874Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan was wary of
Treasury Department "initiatives," 1995
meeting minutes show.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Netking

(08/29/2001; 21:54:31 MDT - Msg ID: 60488)

POG/POS - Market Timing

To those who follow market timing, this post taken from another forum may be of interest:

"Sunday marks a full moon and plus or minus a day or two for a major bottom in SILVER! Note that MARS was very close this year and a very bright planet in the Southern U.S. Sky. In exactly two years from NOW, MARS will be closer to EARTH than it has been in 5,000 years! And it will glow eight times as bright as it appears now!! What does this mean?? Stay tuned , my friends. Gold to rise $100 by Mid October THIS YEAR!"(posted by rabbit)
-----------------------------------------------------------
It may be totally wrong, but some wishful thinking never hurt! - Netking

Black Blade

(08/29/2001; 21:56:53 MDT - Msg ID: 60489)

Corning to cut 1,000 more jobs

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B33EDA706%2DAD96%2D414C%2D970E%2D662E9AFAEC19%7D&siteid=mktw
Snippit:

CORNING, N.Y. (CBS.MW) -- Corning will cut 1,000 jobs from its optical fiber work force due to a continued slowdown in the telecommunications sector, especially in North America and Europe, the company said late Wednesday.

Black Blade: "Bone Pile" grows higher! This economy is in serious trouble. I heard George Dubya today trying to deflect the bad economic news (heading it off at the pass?). He inherited a tough situation but it is next to impossible to stop the Recession from getting much worse. It will truly get very "Grim" unless there is some miraculous event very soon. I would stash some PMs in a safe location for insurance and hope for the best at this point. We live in "Interesting Times."

BR549

(08/29/2001; 21:58:22 MDT - Msg ID: 60490)

Pitchin' & Grinnin'

BR549-"Let me go comb my hair, clean my glasses, put on a clean shirt, and I'll post this."-I'm Grinnin�

pitcher
one that pitches; specifically : the player that pitches in a game of baseball

pro�fun�di�ty
the quality or state of being profound or deep

lev�i�ty
from "levis" light in weight

"Profundity does not preclude levity"
The quality of being a deep light weight?
Sorry, I just couldn't resist.

Makes my earlier point about using the word you are attempting to "define in the define-ition".

You lurkers come on in, the water's fine.

Netking

(08/29/2001; 22:22:39 MDT - Msg ID: 60491)

Never mind the surplus, what about global "contraction"

http://www.washtimes.com/op-ed/20010829-75604186.htmSnippit:
". . . According to the respected British journal, The Economist, Germany's economy is "unexpectedly stagnant." Japan's is in "steep decline." East Asia and Latin America are "slumping alarmingly." Singapore's gross domestic product has fallen 11 percent and Taiwan's has gone down 6 percent so far this year. Overall, global industrial production fell at a 6 percent rate for the first half of 2001. Japan is experiencing deflation.

The world's excessive reliance on a strong American economy to buy its goods and services is a new danger. Six percent of everything made in the rest of the world is sold in America. That is up from barely 3 percent just 10 years ago. Last year, a full 40 percent of all economic growth in Asia (except for Japan) was due to increases in their export of information technology to America.

If we can't restart our economy, and quickly, we will export our recession to the rest of the world � and the entire global economy could spiral down into sustained contraction . . . "

Netking

(08/29/2001; 22:45:19 MDT - Msg ID: 60492)

Goldfields eyes merger after posting strong results

http://www.smh.com.au/news/0108/30/biztech/biztech15.htmlSnippit:
Mid-sized gold producer Goldfields yesterday indicated that discussions over an $842 million merger with Delta Gold were well advanced, confirming it had appointed a corporate adviser.

Goldfields managing director Dr Peter Cassidy substantiated talk the company had appointed corporate banker Credit Suisse First Boston to advise on the deal but would not elaborate on its progress.

"What we have said to the stock exchange, we have nothing further to add at the moment," Dr Cassidy said.

But other sources noted that representatives of both companies were stepping up due diligence activities and had visited each other's respective operations in Western Australia in recent weeks.

Some speculated that an announcement of a friendly merger between the two companies could come as early as this week . . ."

Black Blade

(08/29/2001; 22:53:51 MDT - Msg ID: 60493)

Japan banks face Y1.89 trln stock loss

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010829/t73652.html
Snippit:

TOKYO, Aug 30 (Reuters) - Japan's 15 top banks held a total of 1.89 trillion yen ($15.73 billion) in net latent losses from their stock holdings as of Wednesday, according to a recent estimate by Daiwa Institute of Research (DIR). Under mark-to-market accounting rules to be introduced in September, Japanese banks are required to deduct 60 percent of unrealised securities losses from retained earnings that are mainly used to pay dividend. Analysts have warned that some top banks would find it hard to pay promised dividends on preferred stock issued to the government, which could increase the government's say over the banks' management policies.

Black Blade: Rumor is that some Japanese banks will be forced to either merge with "healthier" Japanese banks or go under. The situation is looking absolutely "Grim."

megatron

(08/29/2001; 23:05:55 MDT - Msg ID: 60494)

White Rose

Any investment you make in gold bullion should keep you safe, no matter what,inflation or deflation. I would keep it to a smaller per centage. After that your into personal 'loyalty' territory. Do you believe in the long term value of the $US? Would you have a problem shorting the $? Do you agree with the silver supply/demand statistics? Maybe Swiss bonds or annuities are your kind of thing, if you don't trust US denominated assets. Some Canadian funds hold gold and silver bullion. I would bet a lot of people are having the same conversation in their head as you are. Gold bullion, Us T-bills, and certain Swiss bonds would be the safest bet today. If Swiss bonds get in trouble, it's probably all over, and your gold will go to the moon. IMO

ORO

(08/29/2001; 23:11:53 MDT - Msg ID: 60495)

econoclast - Verdine and the French socialist gadfly

http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,543586,00.htmlThe French governing class (and it is that - just as much as the Bourbons were), through the OECD, and with active assistance from the Germans and some enthusiasm from the Clintonites, are trying to eliminate competition among governments to provide the best environments to business and earners of "geographically non-specific" income. They are also at the center of the treaty negotiations aimed at drowning the internet with criminal and civil liabilities for "libel" (read as "criticism" of the French government and the EC).

The central governments of the EU are attempting to inflict on the world at large their economic diseases of managed economies and frozen labor markets. The Kyoto accord had nothing to do with global warming and everything to do with limiting US growth with restrictions on demographic and economic growth - which translate to increased CO2 emissions. The OECD "anti money laundering" effort and anti "unfair tax competition" efforts were targeted at governments that sought to better their people by competing with EU and developed markets with lower taxes and better services, particularly protections of property and privacy, thus attracting business investments.

What the EU in general and the French in particular fear most is that the US succeed economically and provide the world with a freer market model that would set the tone for competition among governments. This instead of the EU model of government cooperation against the commercial and general freedoms of the individuals that are humanity at large.

The French are so vocally critical of the US "unilaterally" taking the path of competition rather than cartelization of governments through treaty.

What Verdine wants: "controlled globalization", is a catch phrase for "no competition" and "no free markets". He protests because his class is the greatest potential loser of such competition, since the French government is the largest beneficiary of EU monetary transfers for farm subsidies etc. and outright competition among governments to attract and retain commercial activity would mean the rest of the EU would try to cut costs that provide no internal benefit and French subsidies would be the first thing to go.

French fear of cultural marginalization are materializing as the younger French generations are joining the freewheeling largely Americanized global internet centered culture. The attractions of highly polished and easily accessible American pop-culture are making for a future with only a marginal role for French language and culture even within France. What the French political class fears is being unimportant.

Gandalf the White

(08/29/2001; 23:18:07 MDT - Msg ID: 60496)

Watching the Japanese Stock Market drop !

http://web.kyoto-inet.or.jp/people/je3tbc/html/sthome.htmlThe above LINK is to a NIKKEI 225 chart -- it is a little slower than the postings at the YAHOO World Stock Market page which presently shows the afternoon session as:
Japan Nikkei 225 12:55AM 10923.36 -56.40 -0.51%
The low of the morning session was 10,980.75
<;-(

Gandalf the White

(08/29/2001; 23:19:18 MDT - Msg ID: 60497)

OOPS !

That low tonight was 10,807.75

BR549

(08/29/2001; 23:32:49 MDT - Msg ID: 60498)

Comments on Comments

BB-"This time it's a race between the Nikkei and Hang Seng for sub 10,000.
BR-Is it too late for the DOW to get into this race? Only 90 points away.

NK-" If we can't restart our economy, and quickly, we will export our recession to the rest of the world � and the entire global economy could spiral down into sustained contraction . . . "
BR-It hasn't already happened?

CP-" Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan was wary of Treasury Department "initiatives," 1995 meeting minutes show."
BR-And why do we have to wait five+ years for these minutes? What are they saying in there?

WR-" I throw myself on the mercy of my gold loving bear-friends: what should we do with this account? Leave it alone? Sell the stocks? Sell the stocks and the bond funds? Sell everything?"
BR-Yes, get out of paper, pay off your mortgages and get rid of all bankster debts, buy Physical gold, and don't store it in the bank. The DOW will be below $8,000 by the end of the year. My crystal ball is in the shop and my advice is FWIW what you paid for it. This is what I have done. And I haven't lost a nickel in 401K's.

FoxNews Channel-Greenspan and 4 of his cronies lost over $2MM in their investments this past year, mostly in Treasury Bills.
BR-Good!

ORO

(08/29/2001; 23:58:46 MDT - Msg ID: 60499)

escapethematrix - sorry about that

See prior post, intended for youFrom prior link:

"Earlier this year he was also scathing about America's reluctance to commit itself fully to an international campaign against money-laundering. He said that such market-driven attitudes "prevent the emergence of a global consensus to combat the destructive effects of globalisation". "

Note that globalization is something that individuals are doing in the pursuit of their own interests and for their own benefit, but this is somehow "destructive". It is only destructive of the interests of mediocre governments in their parasitic role. I suggest that along with very high end French antiques now flooding the US market we open the doors to French engineers and researchers. The antiques are being sold from France because of the liquidity tightness induced by the ECB and because of the sudden cessation of investment by high tech and communications businesses threatened by the French centric EU led initiative against the internet and free markets.

I should indicate that the religion and philosophy of the French and German political elites are "bureaucratic expert-ism". The belief that society and commerce need be "optimized" by experts endowed with specialized training and government authorizations, who majestically impose their perfect decisions on an accepting society in awe of their benevolent virtuosity.

That these bureaucratic experts have no motive to make a decision that is beneficial to all or most individuals does not bother the elites. Nor does the fact that individuals leave the "official" economy in order to pursue a system not "optimized" by experts ever challenge their belief in central planning and "experts" though people vote against them with both feet and their wallet. It is always something "wrong" with the people who refuse to comply with the crystalline perfection of the expertly rendered bureaucratic decision.

Gandalf the White

(08/30/2001; 00:13:00 MDT - Msg ID: 60500)

FAR the best minute to minute NIKKEI chart is this LINK

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^N225&d=c&k=c4&t=1d<;-)View Yesterday's Discussion.

Old Yeller

(08/30/2001; 01:03:50 MDT - Msg ID: 60501)

Understated critique of Professor Dornbusch

http://globalarchive.ft.com/globalarchive/articles.html?id=010829001715&query=gold
From Haruko Fukuda of the WGC,no less.With an emphasis on gold's role as a store of value.

Netking

(08/30/2001; 02:39:57 MDT - Msg ID: 60502)

"Prospecting for Silver" - Morgan

http://www.financialsense.com/transcriptions/Morgan3.htmTranscription of interview (from August 27) Between Jim Puplava & PM Analyst David Morgan. (A "must read" for silver bugs - Netking)

Snippit:
". . . commodities often return to the mean or their average. So, if we use the work of Franklin Sanders, he states:

If you had a chart 45 feet long where each foot equaled 100 years, only in the last 15 inches would the gold/silver ratio ever rise above 16:1. In 1941 the ratio shot up briefly to 100 to 1. It occurred again in 1991. It is also important to remember that the last time people sought monetary refuge, that the ratio again returned to 16:1 ($800 gold/$50 silver). What this suggests to me is this time, silver will shine brightly during any economic condition . . . . "

nickel62

(08/30/2001; 03:58:52 MDT - Msg ID: 60503)

White Rose Some advice from a friend

You mentioned that you have municipal bonds and some bond funds that you inherited. Do not lose much sleep over the municipal bonds themselves. The main exposure that you have is the credit risk of that particular issuer. In this case your broker should be able to provide you with the credit rating of the various municipal issuers. Generally there is little risk of a high grade municipality defaulting even in the dire economic situations that we discuss on this forum. So that should not be a concern. If the municipal bonds are of a very long duration(say more than five to ten years) you might have some exposure to interest rate risk were interest rates in the US to rise dramatically. Since you mentioned that you inherited these bonds I assume they were purchased by a loved one before they died and most likely are fairly close to maturity now. SO don't lose one moment of worry about these municipal bonds. Your concern about the Heartland Bond funds problems is more pressing. Bond funds suffer in a rising interest rate enviroment because of the tendency of the manager to try and produce "better" short term performance in order to keep his job. As intereest rates rise and bond values decline the manager tends to sell the bonds to meet redemptions and is forced to recognize losses that you would not have to do if you as an individual held individual bonds in your portfolio. The Heartland Bond disaster was really of a slightly different character. It was a situation were certain bonds don't trade very often so they are priced daily not from an actual trade but from a matix of prices reflecting the last trades in that security(which might have been several weeks ago) or in some cases from the manager's list of similar bonds that did trade that day. Either way it is a process that is prone to subjective interpretation and can cause there to be a wide variation in the reported value and the actual price at which you could sell the bonds. This is especially true in a rapidly changing market. The Heartland fund is and was a small fund family in the midst of a huge fund market. While this type of mispricing can happen in any size fund it is much more likely to happen in a smaller sized operation. To protect yourself you might want to consider switching to a larger fund if the one you have is on the smaller size or more appropriately switch the money into another income producing asset. The US Treasuries would be a good choice since they are the most liquid market and would get you similar income without having to pay the bond fund management and expense fees. The most efficient way to invest in US Treasuries is to find US Treasury Direct on the internet and follow there instructions on how to buy US bonds directly from the US Government. THis is a GOvernment provided service like the Post Office and provides the ability to buy bonds of any maturity from the GOvernment auctions without paying any of the normal commissions. Rubin and Clinton tried to surpress this group because it took business away from the brokerage community and they closed all the regional offices but it still is available on the net and over the phone. US TReasury Direct or Treasury Direct as it is know has millions of americans who use it to buy their bonds cutting Wall Street out of the transaction. <<<<<< Not investment advice...but suggestions for a friend>>>>>

Canuck

(08/30/2001; 05:04:08 MDT - Msg ID: 60504)

@ John Doe

Stellar post.

I understand your 'asset class' breakdown in terms of X-flation. No wonder the continuous debates; a virtuous circle, yes?

May I ask more novice questions?

Suppose there was no printing presses (?) and thus no incoming dollars. Would the sum of inflating classes of assets balance the sum of deflating? Thus, because of increasing money supply there must be 'inflation' somewhere?

Yes, I see that measurement of 'CPI' can be directed towards a deflating asset base. The government measurement of 'inflation' is therefore biased as opposed to 'crooked' as some may suggest. Conversely, inflation measurement in Nasdaq, for example, paints the opposite view.

So back to the 'general' view; inflating money supply does inflate various asset classes and therefore, since apples are still apples, more dollars are required to buy said apples, dilution of currency is the net result, yes?

So, 'deflation' causes assets to become smaller but debt to become larger. Governments have the largest debt so therefore they encourage inflation of 'money supply'; debt become 'smaller' because money becomes 'smaller', assets become larger and they don't give a 'rat's ass' about 'consumer' inflation because they can hide it with their voo-doo accounting schemes.

Further speculating, does it not seem academic then to measure aspects of inflation. How is it measureable? Gathering all the eggs into a basket and discussing the increase of money supply at some 15%, can one safely say
'inflation' is running at that level. Would the sum of all measureable inflations and deflations then be 15%?

Coming from another angle and thinking of the 'net sum zero' theories (Mr Asher I believe) the new net money must be distributed to varying asset classes causing a general increase across the 'board'. When I get a little confused (and this happens regularly) I draw a box around my economic world (my net worth/assets) and compare it to the bigger box of a company and to the yet larger box of a government. I have various assets which when contained inside the 'box' have a 'net sum zero' effect. Stocks change to bonds, bonds change to gold, cash changes to golf clubs but the 'box' does not deviate in 'value'. However, if an asset leaves the 'box' I experience deflation and vice-versa if cash enters the box I experience inflation. Further, if the new cash entering is morphed into T-bills for example I increase net worth.

The problem I see is I trade labour for cash, cash enters box, net worth increases and I don't see it as inflationary because the asset was earned. Looking back at the 'big government box' how is cash (money) earned? It 'prints the money out of thin air' as the statement goes and throws it into the box creating greater 'net worth'. Is this allowed? How does a government become wealthier, surely not by printing money? Posting (selling) a bond allows one to create money at the government level, does it not?

I'm blabbering again.

Thanks for your note Mr. Doe, gets the wheels spinning!!

Belgian

(08/30/2001; 05:13:11 MDT - Msg ID: 60505)

Good Morning

Old Yeller (# 60501): WGC and the professor in the Financial Times.Happy that there was a reaction from WGC...but what a formal and unpassionate (no glow ! their marketing ?), answer, it was. Hate to criticize the WGC, constantly, but, another opportunity to take *Gold* into the public, has been trashed. And it was a free opportunity ! So be it.

Netking : M.E.-war possibility = small (me think so).
Intuition tells me that the world wants to face more economic-oriented probs. Contained local conflicts are more in fashion than rightout wars of some bigger scale.

Soros owning a big chunk of the Andes, Apex, silver miner (R.P.). Why not the metal itself if convinced about its leverage against Gold ? (leverage on leverage-?). And do these Soros-ike chaps, have Gold, and don't want to say it ?
Me confused (still). Must surely have something to do with Mars approaching earth (:-)(-:). Will that super glow be yellowish or silverish ? Smile Sir !

Auspec/Randy/Canuck/Solomon : I suspect strongly the utmost fundamental * PRICE STABILITY * (and currency stability)
must be connected with * GOLD * ! BTW, I've been mentionning already that the aspect "stability" is stressed clearly on each �-statement from any euro-builder on the news, overhere. Is the idea of "real" stability, after the past 30 years of debauche, the exclusive interest of EMU ?
Or does the dollar wants to jump on this bandwagon ? And does the dollar got inspired by what EMU wants to achieve ?
If so...*GOLD* could be the mutual interest and are the WA/SDRs/Custodial/Deep Storage etc - elements, interconnected.
The $ and � have as common cause the detoriated Growth / Debt / Employment problem. But both in a different way.
Both $ and � know very well that they can't evolve, economically, for another decade, linear to the previous past 30 yrs style. The clue is that Permanent Currency Depreciation is devastating as a result of the incapacity to generate growth (and welfare), without the maximum of justified and responsible, productive debt ! Simplier, if you want everything, Now and with taking the path of least resistance...you are condemned to fail. Close encounters of the Debtbergs and the growing Titanics.

The Globalization trend is telling us that this fundamental problem of Debt and Growth, is taken care off, through, big scale management (engeneering). Not everyone on his own, but rather big clusters of mutual interested parties.
Most shocking accidents � la LTCM have been smoothed.

POG management is considered up until now as a negative (value-related). What if the underlying initiative is positively intented (stability) by EMU and US as well ?
Who wants to abandon the past 30 years of materialistic expansion ? This boat is making water and a water-pumping consensus might be found quickly with Gold as the water-pump with a $ and � arm.

Frustrated by the lack of *ANSWERS*, I'm desperately searching for the right big picture to frame all the questions. The "stability"-builders, might be a larger cluster than we suspect up until now. Again, I stress on the fact that confrontation is minimalized and is strongly suggesting that there is more mutual, love and understanding, in order to get out of the post 1971 mess (debt/growth) we all got into. Note that debt/growth/expansion have different meanings for $ and �.

Whatever the outcome...present Gold-Valuation, remains absurd. And in a Good Morning II, I would like to reflect on the Sierra Madre / White Rose thing (#60485).

LeSin

(08/30/2001; 05:20:14 MDT - Msg ID: 60506)

US$ - May only be useful as a History Study of Pictures of Past Presidents

http://top.rbc.ru/english/index.shtml?/news/english/2001/08/30/30121450_bod.shtml
Russian province gets rid of dollars
Citizens of the Russian province are worried about safety of their dollar savings, and they start transferring them in a more tangible form. Contrary to recent pre-crisis patterns, when durable goods were the first to disappear from the shelves, now consumer demand increased for other products.
According to the Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper, citizens of Russia's regions are buying such costly goods as real estate, cars, jewelry etc. Although this increase cannot be called massive yet, certain tendencies are obvious. In Moscow, they are expressed not so clearly, but people in the province seem to have believed the predictions of some media sources about the dollar's collapse in the near future. After a number of economic crises in the past, Russian people became more careful and prudent. And these reasonable people prefer living in four-room flats, sitting on bars of gold and wearing many pieces of jewelry, to having a heap of devalued dollar banknotes. They could still use dollars to study the history of the US presidency, but this is not the most lucrative business.

It is no wonder that Russia's province parts easily with a portrait gallery of American Presidents. The dollar had bad luck in the province. It had to force its way as a means of savings. As a result of economic crises and systematic falls of the national currency, the majority of citizens in Russia's regions realized that it was safer to invest their money in goods (vodka and carpets for the poor and real estate, cars and gold for the rich). Probably, this lack of trust in the dollar makes it easier for Russians to get rid of dollars now.

In recent months, Moscow and Saint-Petersburg have become a place of pilgrimage for those provincials who enjoyed higher incomes than average citizens of these central cities. Most of them were oil and gas dealers and small businessmen, who could afford to buy real estate in Moscow or Saint-Petersburg. According to the Moscow real estate agents, the increased demand caused a 5 percent rise in housing prices.

While heads of households are looking for flats, their wives are "attacking" jewelry shops. According to employees of Moscow's jewelry stores, a demand for jewelry with precious stones rose by 3 percent in August when compared to July. Traditionally, consumer demand falls in summer, because potential jewelry buyers prefer to spend their money on travelling. However, they were replaced by provincial moneybags this year.

It is interesting that it is jewelry that enjoys an increased demand, and not bars of gold. According to a Moscow bank employee, not a single bar of gold was purchased in the past year. And this is quite understandable: a bank is obliged to report every buyer of gold bullion to tax agencies. Not all well-off people aspire to have such an acquaintance.

However, rich Russian people could console themselves with buying prestigious cars. Rumors about the dollar's fall played into the hands of car dealers. According to Moscow's car shops, a demand for new foreign cars shot up. And most of the buyers were provincial citizens. The experts predict that a growth in the demand will continue until the end of the year. Car sales will double this year, compared to 2000, and reach 80,000 to 90,000 cars.

Probably, "provincial" dollars will help dedollarize the Russian economy, and the dream of many economists will materialize.�

LeSin

(08/30/2001; 05:50:25 MDT - Msg ID: 60507)

Prof. R. Dornbusch Answered By Mr. John Mueller, (Yes/No?)

http://globalarchive.ft.com/globalarchive/articles.html?id=010830001521&query=gold

LETTERS TO THE EDITOR: Willing to bet gold will make a comeback
Financial Times; Aug 30, 2001
By JOHN MUELLER

From Mr John Mueller.

Sir, Prof Rudiger Dornbusch always speaks with certainty but not always with coherence ("When the gold standard lost its lustre", August 28). He calls it a "certainty" that "gold as part of the international monetary system is dead" and disparages Prof Robert Mundell's view that gold will ultimately form the centre of that system. Yet Prof Dornbusch alludes to a peculiarity that makes his own prediction highly unlikely: the international monetary system is now based on one nation's currency, the US dollar.

President Richard Nixon's closing the gold window did not, as Prof Dornbusch implies, end the "exorbitant privilege" of the dollar's reserve currency status; it vastly extended that privilege. Thanks to the accumulation of official dollar reserves, mostly since 1971, the US has been able cumulatively to spend and invest at least Dollars 1,000bn more than it has earned. This Dollars 1,000bn of demand without a corresponding supply is the cause of the tenfold rise of the dollar-price level since the second world war - fivefold since 1971 - despite the repeated resort of central bankers to Prof Dornbusch's nostrum of "inflation targeting".

But as the 1929-33 debacle showed, a reserve-currency system can be the engine of deflation as well as inflation. In that episode, nearly all the world's dollar and sterling exchange reserves were liquidated, causing prices to collapse back to the pre-first-world-war level. Ever since, what my company has called the "world dollar base" (US currency and bank reserves plus official dollar reserves) remains an excellent predictor of commodity inflation and deflation, including the 1999-2000 inflation and 2001 deflation of energy prices.

Prof Dornbusch seems to me a lone voice in claiming that the international monetary system is behaving splendidly, thanks to central bankers' fine-tuning. I am willing to bet, with Prof Mundell, that there will not be lasting stability until the world system is again based on a money that is someone's asset without being anyone else's liability.

John Mueller, President and Chief Economist, LBMC, 2 Wisconsin Circle, Chevy Chase, MD 20815, US

Copyright: The Financial Times Limited

Black Blade

(08/30/2001; 06:10:04 MDT - Msg ID: 60508)

European Markets Crumble

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Under the weight of an ECB quarter point rate cut, the markets are tumbling "across the pond."

Black Blade

(08/30/2001; 06:16:54 MDT - Msg ID: 60509)

Tokyo exchange to get ready for negative rates

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010829/t23875.html
Snippit:

TOKYO, Aug 29 (Reuters) - One of Japan's financial exchanges has said it will make its system capable of trades in negative interest rates, one of the more bizarre developments from the Bank of Japan's unusual experiment with free money.

Black Blade: The yen is so good that the BOJ will probably pay people to take it off their hands. You don't see this everyday. Hmmm�

Belgian

(08/30/2001; 06:23:48 MDT - Msg ID: 60510)

Good Morning II

* Sound expansive global growth with only productive Debt *
is my definition for ^STABILITY^.

- Sound : honest and horizontal.

- Expansive : involving as much people as possible.

- Global : present currency problem.

- Only Productive Debt : determines the speed-cycles of the expansion.

Politics and Economics are out of sync and have to re-adjust !

White Rose Gold : A strictly personal (non-advisory) reflection on "investing" at present.
Argumentation for 100% Gold : Physical Gold in possession !

Intro : The best investment is in the business in wich you were able to generate the confetti. The fact that you were able to generate confetti-surplus is evidence that you are an expert in your domain and therefore succesfull and in the capacity to repeat it or transfer it to the next generation. If not desired, let us have a look at the present alternatives for the future, through systematic elimination.

1/ All bonds and currencies (cash) fluctuate and the final outcome at expiry (consumption use), remains unpredictable. Bonds and currencies are Debt-receipts (certificates)(cfr. TG). Who can predict the purchasing power of your paper within 5 or 10 years ?
Do present interest rates (5%), compensate adequately for such a risk ?

2/ Stocks : No, thank you. We are marching to the end and do not stand at the beginning of something big. Risk/Reward is unacceptable for some years to come. (see link urbansurvival.com)

3/ Other Tangibles : Real Estate / Land / Antiques etc...
Expertise is needed if you are not a gambling type.

If we do agree on the problem of stability and its definition...we must admit that the past speculations/gamblings cannot be projected linearly into the future. If the next expansive growth, needs/demands, the same amount of DEBT...you sign a contract for Hyperinflation. All optimists should watch how fast any plant can grow and produce fruits under extreme favorable conditions and witness how fast and sudden that same plant and its fruits can collapse totally. Challenging the laws of nature is a very, very risky business ! Don't count on me to join them. I want to grow "stable" and natural.

This brings us finally to the controversial discussion on the percentage of physical gold in your/mine/our/their possession, today !
5% - 10% - 20%...and this is, as far as the most courageous advocates dare to go. Even when a wide majority does agree on a highly probable POG of 500$/600$. My question is : what other alternative do you have with golden guarantees (risk/reward) of doubling your wealth within the next 5 to 10 years (compare 5%/IRs)? And what is the probability that your physical gold in possesion will be halved in value, within 5 years ?

I remain all ears (open ears and mind) for any argument against 100% physical gold at sub 300$/ounce today. Thanks !
I think we should have the courage to exchange ideas about this.

Black Blade

(08/30/2001; 06:25:29 MDT - Msg ID: 60511)

Repossessions, Tight Credit Bog Down U.S. Mobile-Home Industry

http://www.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Economies&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_econ&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_economies&bt=ad_position1_economies∣dle=ad_frame2_economies&s=AO4xpJBYLUmVwb3Nz
Snippit:

Ocoee, Florida, Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Beau Jarrell doesn't have to live in the Wild West to see his share of ghost towns. Where are they? Florida's trailer parks. Jarrell, president of All Pro Recovery Inc. in Ocoee, has visited about 200 mobile homes this year to post 72-hour repossession notices on delinquent debtors' doors for such lender customers as Bank of America Corp. and Bank One Corp. The difference between this year and Jarrell's past experience is that now residents aren't paying up, or even sticking around to give Jarrell any lip when he comes back to change the locks. ``Chances are that if you put notice on the door it's already cleaned out by the time you get back,'' said Jarrell, who estimates that only about 10 of the 200 debtors have settled their bills.

Some economists aren't convinced. They argue that as long as unemployment is on the rise, blue-collar workers are at risk of losing their jobs, and their mobile homes. `You're going to see more delinquencies and bankruptcies,'' said Gary Shoesmith, director of the Center for Economic Studies at Wake Forest University's Babcock Graduate School of Management. ``It will get worse before it gets better.''

Black Blade: Yep, but every Bubba and Lew still hangs on to his 4X4 pickup truck with an "Easy Rider Rifle Rack." This is definitely a sign of the times. Best to get out of debt if possible and be "a beholdin to nobody."

Tommy P

(08/30/2001; 06:28:22 MDT - Msg ID: 60512)

Euro, Euro...

http://www.cnn.com/2001/WORLD/europe/08/30/euro/index.htmlAnd a great beast appeared from the seas!! Looks good I hope this gives Wall St the Gitters!!

Black Blade

(08/30/2001; 06:37:21 MDT - Msg ID: 60513)

U.S. risks inflation in rebound -Milton Friedman

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010827/l27529151.html
Snippit:

ROME, Aug 27 (Reuters) - The United States should pull out of recession in 2002 but will have to keep an eye on inflation when it does, Nobel prize-winning economist Milton Friedman said in an interview published on Monday. ``With the very unusual Federal Reserve policy of successive interest rates cuts...the key problem once the recession ends in 2002 will be how to control inflation,'' Friedman was quoted as telling Italy's Corriere della Sera newspaper.

Black Blade: Nobel Prize recipient Milton Friedman says - We are in a Recession! I definitely agree. Inflation too? I think maybe so. Rising energy costs must be passed along to the consumer at some point as earnings disappear.

Black Blade

(08/30/2001; 06:50:26 MDT - Msg ID: 60514)

DOW - Sub 10,000? - Maybe Today

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
RE: BR549,

DOW sub 10,000? Yes a definite possibility as early as this morning. Futures are falling fast. Can you say "Grim?" I knew you could. Cheers!

Gotta go help out Kalifornia with their energy problems. Back later.

Black Blade

(08/30/2001; 07:01:45 MDT - Msg ID: 60515)

Charles Schwab Flounders - Laying Off 2000

This just out, Charles Schwab is adding 2000 "Bags of Bones" to the "Bone Pile" as they can't keep their people busy with stock trades. Looks "grim" in the brokerage business these days. We live in "Interesting Times." It will get much worse. Hang on for the ride and get prepared. A little PM insurance could go a long way when all is said and done.

CoBra(too)

(08/30/2001; 07:38:55 MDT - Msg ID: 60516)

After the Fact of 1/4 percent reduction by the ECB ...

Wim D's Press Conference was a non event.
After telling the world that the US economy's troubles may be more pronounced and of longer duration (surprise) than expected he went on to (not really) answer specific questions - forgetting even most of the q's. What a poor spectacle of a performance...

Fact is he's now inherited the same kind of jargon the FED's Chairman is using, albeit AG is more fluent and convincing. ... and of course, nobody in the EU is trying to
soften the stability pact, as even Mr. Eichel (who has alledgedly called for more flexibility in that respect) has called him on the cell phone, while touring Avignon. - Alledgedly to assure Dim W. that he didn't really mean it.

Reminds me of the bride groom, who gets second thoughts about his flexibility getting curbed when truly married. Well, yes the EU is great and so is marriage, though I'll reserve my right to greener pastures in case you strangle my desires a touch too much.

Core inflation has come down recently, though not sufficiently and the quest. towards the growth of M3 being 6.4% recently vs the targeted cap of 4.5% is not inflationary?

So why the hell did he accommodate the interest cut? - even if the euro went up a notch the SM's turned straight down ... probably disgusted too!

Regrets cb2

BR549

(08/30/2001; 07:44:56 MDT - Msg ID: 60517)

Conceptual eClownomics�

Net sum zero theories? Trade labour for cash? Not inflationary for individuals because the asset was earned? Would the sum of inflating classes of assets balance the sum of deflating? Thus, because of increasing money supply there must be 'inflation' somewhere? Draw boxes around assets? Draw bigger boxes?

There is a nest of this Conceptual eClownomics theory on both sides of the river that makes sense to you advocates but has little or no value to those who try to understand the world in the "real sense".

If you look at inflation in the traditional Austrian economic sense-it is an expansion of the money supply. If goods and services remain constant, then you have inflation. Deflation is just the opposite. No boxes need to be drawn. No "net sum zero theories needed".

If you have paper assets instead of physical gold, then expect to manipulated out of a portion of it by TPTB. If you want to play the banksters game, then expect to be hosed. You deserve it by the way. If your have pledged your primary residence, whether it is a trailer, or a brick and mortar to the banks, they have a claim on your property. When the banksters choose to own it instead of allowing you to occupy it anymore, you deserve it. Draw a box around debt and it is still debt.

With all of the manipulations for the benefit of the banksters and TBTB, why do you conceptual types attempt to cloud the issues with this "gibberish"? Don't you think that your time would be better spent learning Milton Friedman or even Keynes theories first? Then you can understand what will happen to your assets if the world changes in one direction or another.

Do any of you conceptual's know how to read a balance sheet? An income statement? I have seen brilliant comparisons of Assets on the General Ledger to expenses on the Income Statement. Forget about Generally Accepted Accounting Procedures. You guys don't need them.

I defend anyone's right to post anything that they want. You conceptuals are sometimes "thin skinned" however, IMHO, providing an impediment to the rest of us who live in the "real world" and genuinely want to find out what is going on within it.

BR549

(08/30/2001; 08:13:53 MDT - Msg ID: 60518)

With a little bit of cash, some stocks, a few bonds, you can.......

BB msg#: 60515--

Do you think that Charles Slob needs to learn how to "just relax"?

escapethematrix

(08/30/2001; 08:18:37 MDT - Msg ID: 60519)

Q's for ORO....RE: #60499, 60495....

Greetings,ORO. I'm glad to see you posting again. Your posts are always very interesting and enlightening. I understand your reservations about the EU, and the socialist tendencies and bureaucracies of Europe.
I agree totally that the restrictions in regard to Internet freedom are shortsighted and unacceptable.
You bring up many valid criticisms of the EU, Germany and France. Rather than trying to defend the indefensible, I'd like to hear your thoughts in regard to the questions below.

Do you really believe that the US Government is any better?

Does the US actually support a free market, or crony-capitalism?

No one can argue that our American fiscal policy has proved fruitful to the majority of Americans, but are we, as a country, really succeeding economically?

How can the markets be seen as free, if the government, for whatever reason, has not only capped the Gold price, but blatantly lies to the Public and Congress about it?

How can there be a true competition between governments, and economies while the US dominates the playing field via the "strong dollar policy" which seems to revolve around blatant and hypocritical Gold market intervention by either the Treasury, or IMF?

You end with---What the French political class fears is being unimportant.

I don't think it is just the French. To simply say that the "political class" in ANY country fears being unimportant would be a more complete picture of political reality.

Thanks for all your past and hopefully future thoughts and contributions. You are a class act in my book.

KarenSue

(08/30/2001; 08:57:01 MDT - Msg ID: 60520)

White Rose advice

http://www.usagold.com/halloffame.htmlI would recommend this along with the other suggestions offered so far:

1) Click on the link provided for USAGOLD Hall of Fame

2) Scroll down to page 4 and click on: The Stranger (03/02/2001) On Bonds versus Gold

You will find some very valuable information. Probably the most advice knowledgeable available compressed in just a few paragraphs.

Hope this helps.

Only Me

KS

agbull

(08/30/2001; 08:57:46 MDT - Msg ID: 60521)

Silver in a Recession

http://www.financialsense.com/transcriptions/Morgan3.htm JIM: What about the silver market in a recession? I have seen some posts on the web stating that the silver deficit might actually turn into a surplus this year because the demand will be down so much with the economy weakening. Do you buy that?

DAVID: I've seen the same thing. It is basically another case of good spin doctors. Yes, demand is usually down in a recession. I won't argue that. But that is where the truth ends, because the total truth is that the amount silver mined is also less. Since zinc and copper prices have suffered lately. In fact, zinc prices are down about 18% year to date. The amount of byproduct silver is going down -- perhaps more rapidly than silver demand. CPM believes the fundamentals for silver remain attractive and it has raised its 2001 deficit target from 97 million ounces in February to 115 million ounces in the second quarter 2001 report. So what that means is that the deficit predicted for 2001 has just been increased by nearly 20%. So, Jim, this talk about the structural deficit going away this year is just talk!

BR549

(08/30/2001; 09:01:51 MDT - Msg ID: 60522)

Alan Greenspan, and four other Fed big shots lost a combined $2 million last year.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,33263,00.html

Bill O�Reilly-"According to the Financial Market Center, a private organization that analyzes financial data, Alan Greenspan, and four other Fed big shots lost a combined $2 million last year. Greenspan has most of his money in Treasury bills. And interest rates are going down, so his interest on reinvestment is falling."

Anybody want to get a "Help Alan" donation fund going?

The DOW wins the race---$9,999.97

Watch out for those "dead cat" bounces, however.

escapethematrix

(08/30/2001; 09:36:02 MDT - Msg ID: 60523)

Microsoft Faces New EU Probe for Abusing Dominance

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AO45BMRTaTWljcm9zBrussels, Aug. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The European Commission expanded its antitrust probe of Microsoft Corp., accusing the largest software maker of using illegal methods to dominate the market for server software that runs local computer networks.
Competition Commissioner Mario Monti also said Microsoft unlawfully tied its Media Player software to the Windows operating system, putting rival makers of software for playing music and video downloaded from the Internet at a disadvantage

Tensions are running high already...Trade War is brewing.

Trailguide: Was the ECB rate cut a surprise?? Do you think we may see another "emergency" cut by US Fed soon if equity markets slide?? What about lease rates returning to such "fraudulent levels?? As always, thanks for all your thoughts and efforts...Perhaps the time might be right to get a good deal on a new computer :)??

White Hills

(08/30/2001; 09:57:04 MDT - Msg ID: 60524)

Maybe its me

Just back from Arizona to my computer. Apologies to all who had numbers in the lottery. WE LOST. Will do it again when the grand prize is larger. The ignorance by the general public as to what is going on in the economy and monetary system is very sad. they have no clue. Talked yesterday to a orthopedic surgeon who thought the dollar was backed by GOLD. Also thought the Euro wasn't any good because it was down in the exchange rates to the dollar. I didn't even try to say anything I just handed the latest Postings of FOA that I had been reading in his office waiting room and said no more. If he reads the postings he, of course ,will begin to ask questions, because he has something to lose. If not, at least I tried. From the orthopedic surgeon who thinks that the $ is backed by Gold to the Gold Prospecting shop owner that thinks gold is too expensive to mine and ,of course, it pays no interest. These are but examples of why we are in the mess we are in. Not having the words to say in these situation I have started to give people who are interested selected posts from this forum on these various topics. It seems to be working. The only way that I feel we can affect any of these problems is to somehow spread the knowledge of the type that is presented here every day to as many people as we can. I admire and support GATA in their quest to make everybody aware of what has been happening in the Gold Market. White Hills

diehard

(08/30/2001; 10:30:12 MDT - Msg ID: 60525)

@ Nickel 62, where can I find US Treasury Direct

Howdy,

please let us know what url stands for The US Treasury Direct. You mentioned it on todays postings, please let us know, where we can find it on the net !

Grateful in advance

diehard

Sierra Madre

(08/30/2001; 10:36:51 MDT - Msg ID: 60526)

Maybe some will be interested to know.....

That in the last couple of weeks, media and press have been reporting on incipient guerrilla organizations in Mexico.

This is a new "song" that is being played.

Of course, reporting is absolutely indispensable for a guerrilla movement to grow. Best thing would be to black out all reporting of such subversive movements. But no, there is full reporting.

As a consequence, friends, you can count on Mexico being in the throes of a full-blown guerrilla war in 18 months. You will have a great increase in the number of people wanting to enter the US.

Just in case you care to know.

Sierra

USAGOLD

(08/30/2001; 10:42:38 MDT - Msg ID: 60527)

EURO INTRODUCED UNDER INTEREST RATE CLOUD

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.htmlNote: My (almost)daily, on-line Commentary and Review is available to prospective clients on a trial basis by registering at the link above. US-based registrants will also receive a hard copy of our 32 page News & Views: A Quarterly Review of Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. The Quarterly Review will also be available for download here in the near future.

In Brief: Gold was down in
New York this morning trading
for the most part in response
to the ECB interest rate cut.
Though the door is still open
to a policy which would favor
a stronger euro, this .25% cut
appears to be just the
opposite -- a policy move in
tandem with the recent Fed cut
which hints at Europe's
unwillingness to take the
steps necessary to truly
strengthen the euro against
the dollar. It sends the wrong
signal at the wrong time and
it is not surprising that the
euro has fled to the downside.
This looks like more of the
same action which has
characterized currency markets
for the past several years.
Soon we will be talking about
the strong dollar policy again
as the greenback retakes the
high ground. That will be bad
economically for Europe and
bad for the United States and
could signal a deeper
recession than originally
anticipated on both sides of
the pond with all the
attendant negative effects in
the stock market.

In what has to be one of the
more notable historical
ironies of the year, the new
euro currency was unveiled
today in a well-orchestrated
publicity campaign. What might
be gained by such efforts with
the public at large will be
lost among the more studious
investors and money men who
understand the differences
between hoopla and
real-politic, rhetoric and
substantive policy -- not to
speak of interest rate
differentials. Not all the
positive urgings with respect
to the euro in the world (as
we witnessed this morning from
the financial world's top
institutions) will nullify the
obvious lack of resolve on the
part of the European financial
establishment to do something
to engender confidence in its
own currency. If they fail
with the introduction of this
currency, they have only
themselves to blame.

Oh well, my fellow
goldmeisters, at least now we
know the policy adds up to
"inflation-in-tandem" on both
sides of the Atlantic. The
best the ECB can hope for in
this self-imposed damage is
that the euro holds its own
and doesn't crater under the
circumstances. The dollar has
already been over-produced to
the brink of monetary
insanity. What's the
knowledgeable investor to do?
The best portfolio response to
inflation is a little yellow
metal tucked safely away.
Neither official currency is a
real hedge against the other.
Gold is. . . . .

CoBra(too)

(08/30/2001; 10:58:21 MDT - Msg ID: 60528)

@ USA Gold -

Seems to me there are a few left - thinking like me - ...
Almost thought I'm totally daft and as to understand the "New Economy" you have to pretend to be thinking the opposite of "Old Economy" - as clear cut as pretending not to be brought up to appreciate the cause of the melee!

I thank thee, MK for clear words ... as the world economy is heading for decay - you've still made my day!

Hooray, or not - bigot, you say and may - even right -
no way - cb2

PS: Having a private BBQ with my son - will catch-up later?

BR549

(08/30/2001; 11:24:26 MDT - Msg ID: 60529)

Heeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!! Hawwwwwwwwwwwwwww!!!!!

DOW�Below $9,915.00,,,,next stop below $9,700�..How LOW can it go? All Cats are still alive. Here kitty, kitty, kitty��..

White Hills

(08/30/2001; 11:57:39 MDT - Msg ID: 60530)

Market Report

MK, About the Euro, it would seem that a .25% decrease in the interest rate at this time is the wrong move. However as you said yourself it is a political move. If you are going to bring down a king you must strike with overwhelming force and with everything you have ,there would be no second chance. I am looking for a move in the very near future , 3-6 months, that will have to include the oil producing countries and their acceptance of Euro's in oil settelments. This also would include the dumping of dollars as reserves and the touting of gold as a key part of the Euro Monetary system. Remember stability in the Euro is what they are aiming at. Their audience they are playing to isn't the US but the Middle East. Oil is the game and presently the $ is the King. If you want to bring down the King-?---------------White Hills

The Stranger

(08/30/2001; 12:11:12 MDT - Msg ID: 60531)

Dollar Strength Not So Easy to Explain - BOE

I don't know if this has been posted, yet. I also don't know who published it because it was sent to me by a friend who didn't say.
Dollar's rise 'not linked to productivity'
By Ed Crooks, Economics Editor
Published: August 28 2001 20:13GMT | Last Updated: August 28 2001 20:24GMT

The strength of the US dollar in recent years cannot be fully explained by
higher productivity growth or capital inflows, according to a new analysis by
the Bank of England.

Currency market analysts have generally explained the 37 per cent rise in the
trade-weighted value of the dollar over the past five years as a consequence
of overseas investors' enthusiasm for US assets. But in a study published on
Wednesday in the Bank's Quarterly Bulletin, staff economists argue the rise
in US productivity growth can account for a small proportion of the dollar's
rise.

The Bank economists say it is widely accepted that there has been a
structural rise in US productivity growth, particularly in the technology
sector, which has led to higher capital inflows, higher expectations of
future profits, higher investment and higher share prices.

However, they have produced illustrative calculations showing that a rise in
productivity which increased output in the internationally-traded sector of
the US economy by 5 per cent would raise the real dollar exchange rate by a
little move than 2 per cent.

The numbers suggest that the recent pick-up in US productivity has been
nowhere near large enough to justify the dramatic appreciation in the dollar
since 1995.

The Bank economists say an alternative explanation is that the dollar's rise
has been "a purely cyclical phenomenon", caused by the boom in investment and
the fall in savings in the US. If that has been the reason, then as domestic
demand falls and the US economy slows, the dollar will drop.

Richard Portes of the Centre for Economic Policy Research said the Bank of
England study backed the current academic consensus that short and
medium-term movements in exchange rates were impossible to explain in terms
of economic fundamentals. "A significant part of what has been going on has
been market psychology, and market psychology turns," he said. "We may have
to wait for notes and coins to be introduced to see a real change in
sentiment on the euro."

Most market analysts still believe that capital flows are an important
determinant of exchange rate movements. But this year these flows have
appeared to offer less support to the dollar.

In the first quarter of 2001 the net inflow of direct and equity investment
into the US was $24bn, compared to $211bn for the whole of 2000.

Paul Meggyesi of Deutsche Bank said: "The US productivity miracle is being
increasingly called into question - both in its extent and in its durability.
We should expect the dollar to trend lower from here." On Tuesday the euro
was virtually unchanged against the dollar at just below $0.91 - close to its
highest level in five months.

R Powell

(08/30/2001; 12:37:39 MDT - Msg ID: 60532)

James Paplava interviews David Morgan

http://www.financialsense.com/transcriptions/Morgan3.htm I just got in and found this link in the mail.
No comments as I haven't read it yet. It prints out at 8 pages. Also, I haven't read today's entries, if someone has already provided this link we'll have to say something about great minds thinking alike. Or something about how easily sheep are herded as a group?
Rich

BR549

(08/30/2001; 12:43:46 MDT - Msg ID: 60533)

Oil, Euro's & shorts

White Hills-"I am looking for a move in the very near future , 3-6 months, that will have to include the oil producing countries and their acceptance of Euro's in oil settelments."

I could not agree more. First the Russian's go to value-based currency to swap out their hoarded FRN's, next the Euro's along with a 1/4 pt drop. It's world war against the dollar. You and BB's close watch of the fuel that drives the U.S. economy being chopped off at the well cap is what will wreck the $US.

AG & Co. can't really plead ignorance, just stupidity.
As the paper burns, I wonder whom they are going to indict for this campfire that got out of control.

Gold +$1.50. Dow -$221.

Go physical GOLD.

p.s.�White Hills: It was great fun and I for one appreciate your efforts. If we lose a PB every now and then, it's OK, as long as we win the giant Gold lottery in the long run.

CNBC's Chicago Rick-The best of CNBC says that the green arrows that one can look for is that you can make money being short in stocks. He keeps talking like that, there will be an opening at the CBOT announcers booth. I hope not.

escapethematrix

(08/30/2001; 12:56:04 MDT - Msg ID: 60534)

Dot.com crash squeezes top insurer

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1516000/1516287.stmSnippet:

The dot.com collapse and a Brazilian oil rig disaster have combined to squeeze the world's oldest insurer, Lloyd's of London. The insurance market has been forced to increase its projected loss for the last two years to �2bn ($2.9bn).
Now the bankruptcy of a host of dot.com firms, and a very expensive oil rig disaster in Brazil, will once again push the firm deep into the red in 1999 and 2000.

But Lloyds also noted that trading conditions are now improving

Conditions improving?? I wouldn't be so sure of that, boys

Netking

(08/30/2001; 13:04:15 MDT - Msg ID: 60535)

Silver, Photography & China / Rich.

I thought this update might be of interest I found at posted recently by 'flash' at K1:
------------------------------------------------------------
Lucky slip reflects challenge

China's largest photographic film maker, Lucky Film, had a near 11 per cent slide in first-half profit, due to a fiercely competitive domestic market.

Lucky, China's standard bearer in a power struggle with United States' giant Eastman Kodak and Japan's Fuji Photo Film, posted interim earnings of 102.19 million yuan (about HK$95.77 million), down 10.7 per cent from last year, it said in a statement published in the Shanghai Securities News.

Competition is intensifying and eroding profit margins in the film and printing paper market as China heads towards membership of the World Trade Organisation, say analysts.

A simmering price war is pushing film prices down and eating into revenue. Analysts say film prices are up to 30 per cent lower in major Beijing supermarkets than they were a year ago.

Mainlanders buy an average of just 0.1 rolls of film a year, while people in the US buy three each, Kodak estimates.

In the short term, Lucky - which has been adding two to three outlets a day to its 2,700 total in a race to match Kodak's 6,000 - will find the going tough but manageable.

Lucky has reason to feel secure, having no shortage of suitors among foreign firms looking to seal a strategic partnership to augment and enhance their relative positions in China.

It is being courted not only by Kodak and Fuji, but also by Japan's Konica and Belgium's Agfa.

http://china.scmp.com/business/ZZZ5FN4ZEQC.html
-----------------------------------------------------------
* The key point, prices of film down 30%, volume of film being sold UP and the biggest user of photograpic film in world with an emerging economy & a huge population base in the middle of a price war. Yep yep yep silver's use in photography is dead for sure(smile) - Netking
------------------------------------------------------------
Rich - Link posted by Rich, AgBull & also Netking, we'll convert 'em all yet buddy!(grin)

Econoclast

(08/30/2001; 13:08:11 MDT - Msg ID: 60536)

Nice to see the word "ORO" on my monitor...

I must admit having a bias that is towards "non-condemnation" of the French. I lived there with an upper-class, "politically connected" family for a time when I was younger. I will be visiting the country in the fall and am looking forward very much to having some "grown-up" discussions with them.
The French people are very prideful both in themselves and their country and culture. I can not see them settling for a suboordinate role in the Eurozone. They do have socialist tendencies but their nationalism trumps all (IMHO). I have not been over there for quite a few years and am looking forward to seeing if the country has changed, or if my more developed economic and political views give me a different perspective. But my own personal experience with the country has been nothing but positive (if you're a friendly kid that speaks French, you're not an "ugly American").

uponroof

(08/30/2001; 13:22:43 MDT - Msg ID: 60537)

Engine #3 Flameout

Well the Stock Market has finally given up on "the summer ralley".....poof!.....FLAMEOUT.

Our trade imbalance has been in FLAMEOUT mode for years.

Now we watch the buck sputtering, coughing and wheezing.

TIME magazine is running a very prophetic article, in their Sept 3 issue, on the global economy. It is entitled: Are You Worried Yet?....One Spark Could Ignite a World Economic Crisis"

Folks, it's definitely time to be worried.

Does everyone realize that the world's reserve currency, the almighty king buck, has lost over 8 PERCENT of it's value since the first week of July! THIS IS FAR AND AWAY THE MOST WIDELY HELD CURRENCY ON THE PLANET! DOWN 8% IN LESS THAN 2 MONTHS! (a lot of lost purchasing power!)

We are in a death spiral. If real estate, the last engine, collapses, fasten your golden crash helmets.

I wonder if the cartel will attempt to reverse their multi-layered, interlocking, totally hopeless positions on gold, or simply die trying to maintain short. I suspect the rogues with less complicated positions may move first forcing the hands of those who are 'up to their eyeballs' short. Something is gonna break somewhere. We are getting down to the absolute nitty gritty. Enjoy the show.

BTW-It has just been reported on 'The American Advisor' that a large pension fund has bought into the numismatic market. They are predicting more funds to follow.

site steward

(08/30/2001; 13:36:39 MDT - Msg ID: 60538)

Dow and Nasdaq continue to slip; plenty of potential downside remains

http://www.usagold.com/goldenchalkboard/gc_stockbubble.html
The anatomy of a bubble. Have a look.

R.

site steward

(08/30/2001; 13:42:51 MDT - Msg ID: 60539)

Let Centennial be your guide in this realm... (see link)

http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/buy.htmlProvided with reference to uponroof's lastest post where he wrote:
----"It has just been reported on 'The American Advisor' that a large pension fund has bought into the numismatic market. They are predicting more funds to follow.---"

R.

Galearis

(08/30/2001; 13:47:00 MDT - Msg ID: 60540)

@Netking your # 60535 on silver

My miniscule contribution for the day on the subject: I had the pleasure of seeing (and feeling) the newest top of the line Nikon digital camera and some sample photos from it yesterday, and I would have to say that this mode of photography truly is the way of the future in photography. The images had little grain, were crisp and sharp, and the camera had wonderful bangs and whistles (including zoom) that almost rivaled a modern slr of modest quality. In addition one can purchase a 100 mb card for it and a little zip drive downloader for it to store ones images. The special neutral pH print paper available for your printer now has an archival storage of some 50 plus years (which beats film by a factor of 2.

All this can be yours for a modest $3000. Including printer.

Just in case you thought I was arguing FOR this progress, I am not. Film is the medium for the vast majority of users and will be for many years. Again price will determine this.
I do not expect demand will rise for these cameras faster than the painful elements of economic stresses in the near future and the market will dry up faster than for that of film.

On another matter, silver supply and signs of separation in paper price, if one looks in on ebay these days for a source of silver bullion it quickly becomes apparent that this is no longer a source. I only found 2 "name" bullion items (Englehards etc) in the 54 auctions on-going. The number of auctions has reduced by easily two thirds and the vast majority of this "bullion" appears to be novelty rounds or other items called "bullion" to catch the ride on the search engine. The novelty rounds I now consider as suspect 925 "bullion" and not .999 - even though these items may be marked as .999. Beware!
The final point to make in all this is the price of these items that seem to average at some 15 to 20 per cent higher in price than just two months ago. This with a rapidly declining paper price (that today closed at $4.17).

All in the FWIW catagory, of course.

Best regards,

G.

Old Yeller

(08/30/2001; 13:48:02 MDT - Msg ID: 60541)

A. Burns;"Your eminence,I beg to differ..."

http://www.prudentbear.com/boards/user/non-frames/message.asp?forumid=4&messageid=66778&threadid=66778
More brickbats for Professor Dornbusch.

All I can say is "Bravo,well done'sir"

Old Yeller

(08/30/2001; 13:55:51 MDT - Msg ID: 60542)

ORO

Great to see you posting again.

Looks like we may have lost another engine, will we be clipping the treetops soon?

KarenSue

(08/30/2001; 14:24:11 MDT - Msg ID: 60543)

RS @ # 60209 (08-24-01)

Sir

I have been pondering the words you used "hope and pray" since the day you posted them on August 24. I have decided to come out of the closet partially. Let me say, "I will stick an arm and a leg out and hope that it will not cause a great disturbance.

I have slept with Hill Billy Mitchell for more than 34 years. I know him better than anyone else in the world. I can tell you that he has many flaws. (smile)

Also let me tell you that he is alive and well, probably due to your prayers.

Only me

KS

PS: I would hope to be judged more for the information provided in my post # 60368 on 08-28-01 (a post upon which I labored dilligently) than for any association I may have with the name, Hill Billy Mitchell. Also, I use HBM's internet connection as I cannot afford my own connection. He has control of the money and has spent great sums on Silver Eagles in recent months, much too much, to allow for that. I think that soon he will head back to gold, thus not much hope for an extra internet connection just to post on USAGOLD.

R Powell

(08/30/2001; 15:45:29 MDT - Msg ID: 60544)

KarenSue

If HBM has enough silver eagles, soon you may not need extra internet connections. With POS at $40/ounce you may be able to just buy the whole system.
Your post and the response it generated reflect the effort you spent. Well done!
Netking, the silverbugs are increasing in numbers!
Rich

Beowulf

(08/30/2001; 15:55:21 MDT - Msg ID: 60545)

C.S.S. Hunley

I just received my last issue of "Civil War Times Illustrated" and it happens to have a good article of the C.S.S. Hunley recovery. The beginning of the article starts out with a huge picture of the 1860 $20 Gold piece that Lt. Dixon had as a good luck charm in his pocket.

I wonder when they'll put this up for sale? Seeing as it has been damaged by someone firing a bullet at it bending it in half and then filed the back side flat and defaced it by inscribing "Shiloh, April 6th 1862, My Life Preserver, G.E.D", I'd give them the melt value for it. (Grin)

-Beowulf

Netking

(08/30/2001; 16:36:34 MDT - Msg ID: 60546)

ECB says euro will unify Europe

http://www.cnn.com/2001/WORLD/europe/08/30/euro/index.htmlSome "Ero-Spin" on the Euro from Wim Duisenberg:

"The euro is much more than just a currency. It is a symbol of European integration in every sense of the word.

"In terms of economic integration, the euro is a symbol of successful enterprise and initiative which has crossed borders and removed barriers to people working, trading and living together.

"In terms of political integration, the euro is a symbol of stability and unity. Countries from a continent which, throughout the ages, has so often been ravaged by war, have together vowed to uphold the values of freedom, democracy and human rights."

He added: "In addition to the economic and political benefits which the euro brings, it will, I believe, help to change the way in which we think about one another as Europeans . . . "
------------------------------------------------------------
Sir Galearis(60540)Good comment. There has certainly been feedback from here & there that physical Ag IS drying up a little & that it's now harder to get what you want. . . when you want it. . . especially if people are a little fussy with their purchase requirement parameters.

I believe we've reached bottom Galearis, all the classic signs are there, yes. The bull always starts off very quietly before he finally charges with an eventual "blow off" top at the end . . . exciting days ahead for gold & silver bugs.
------------------------------------------------------------
Karen Sue - good post & we'll keep pray'in for Sir HBM!

sector

(08/30/2001; 16:56:40 MDT - Msg ID: 60547)

@uponroof Until the Last Dog Dies

With JPMC holding $300,000,000,000 in interest rate derivative VAR )value at risk) the cabal will die before admitting wrong headedness. They have bet half the net worth of the bank on these derivatives because they knew interest rates were linked to the price of gold and since the price of gold was controlled they had a perfect money machine.

If pog rises, interest rates rise to defend the dollar thus putting their low volatility IRDs under water...no one will take the other side of that trade.

It will be a financial armageddon. A paradigm, seismic event almost no one sees coming...even here.

Oh, BTW... the BIS holds $65 trillion in IRDs according to their Annual Report.

auspec

(08/30/2001; 17:25:21 MDT - Msg ID: 60548)

sector

"Goin down with the ship"
"A fight to the finish"
"Dieing with their boots on"
"Until the last minute of the last day"

Dr. Frankenstein would be proud of what these morons have created!

auspec

(08/30/2001; 17:50:33 MDT - Msg ID: 60549)

Midas: Right on Cue

In the near future I will be writing a piece on financial integrity and credibility. Wall Street, the bullion dealers and the mainstream press are losing what they had of it fast. As stated in this column many times over the past year(s), the American public's hard earned 401K money is going to turn into 1K money and when that happens they are going to go on the warpath, looking for scalps and scapegoats for their unexpected financial misfortune.

When they realize that the U.S. Government and their own central bank rigged the gold market (and other financial markets) for many years and then let it all blow up out of sheer greed, arrogance and stupidity, they will rightly go berserk. The resulting turmoil will become a crisis of confidence such as one America has rarely experienced.

Black Blade

(08/30/2001; 18:04:27 MDT - Msg ID: 60550)

Forbes Body Count

http://www.forbes.com/2001/01/30/layoffs.html
The "Bone Pile" grows. More non-essential "space-takers" cast out upon the "Bone Pile." This will get much worse. The Recession is on.

CoBra(too)

(08/30/2001; 18:17:37 MDT - Msg ID: 60551)

@ Auspec - Amen

401K to 1K - are you of the boom(er) generation - generating a gloom(i)er depreciation than Ravi Batra described in the "Crash of the Millenium"?
J. Taylor has a new interview with the author - sorry can't comply with a link (at Bull and Bear), though maybe J.T. will be kind enough to help us out?
... too late to even think about a synopsis ...

zzzz -cb2

slingshot

(08/30/2001; 18:17:40 MDT - Msg ID: 60552)

Auspec Msg# 60549

Berserk is putting it mildly. It would be an advantage to be STREET SMART.
The way things are heating up I had to pull out my fire proof suit.
Slingshot

BR549

(08/30/2001; 18:27:45 MDT - Msg ID: 60553)

Cornfield Index-Today's Real POG $2,430.22/oz Annualized Inflation=19.09%

http://federalreserve.gov/releases/H41/Current/New Federal Reserve update out today shows inflation.

Cornfield County Reserve calculates the real price of gold today at $2,430.22/oz.

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF CONDITION OF ALL FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS Release Date: August 30, 2001 in MM=Millions of Dollars

Total Assets-..........$625,160MM��.Last week-$632,216MM
Less Total Liabilities-$610,367MM��.Last week-$617,359MM
Less Total CAP.ACC TS-�$ 14,792MM�..�..Last week-.$14,857MM

Value of FRN's-........$579,849MM......Last week.$577,729MM

True Current Value Gold (261.5MM oz div. into $ 579,849 MM) =$2,217.40/oz.last week $2,209.29/oz. FRN* + 10% STORAGE =$2,439.14/oz.last week $2,430.22/oz. Change + $8.92

Inflation on yearly basis Aug 23rd base= .00367 x 52 = 19.09%

(OR) 261.5MM oz. of gold on hand x $2,439.14 real value of gold = $579,849 MM is value-based currency value of FRN's as of today.

(OR) the dollar would be valued at 1 / 2,439 oz. U$ in Gold.

*Assumes current Fed numbers without taking into account some current liabilities and some current assets that under GAAP maybe should be counted. Assumes if current FRN's were to be frozen and liquidated for Gold today. Does not account for the printing of additional dollars which will dilute the price per oz. Takes total gold on hand by total Values computed if US goes back on gold standard and FRN's on hand are exchanged for physical gold on hand at the Federal Reserve today.

(OR) If gold had not been manipulated, then its MARKET VALUE IN FRN'S should be worth $2,439.14 /oz. FRN today.

Comments Welcomed!

Regards from The Bank of Cornfield County

Black Blade

(08/30/2001; 18:34:47 MDT - Msg ID: 60554)

Nikkei Absolutely Getting Creamed!

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
The Nikkei is falling fast and furious right out of the gate. Now it's a race for sub 10,000 with the Hang Seng yet to open.

CoBra(too)

(08/30/2001; 18:39:37 MDT - Msg ID: 60555)

@ BB - re - Bone Pile

Just occurred to me:
Bush sr.: "Read my lips... "
Bush jr.: " Pink Slips... ?"

Well, waddayaknow ... no go - in da economy - will I meet da same fate as my daddy? Uh, whatta shame, dad wasn't ta blame - nor me, assa somebody before me hassa wrecked de economy ... too bad, dad, let's a start a smart campaign for (am-)bush III - ... who knows he might even grow to be a tree - hopefooley - we'll c2b (aka cb2) - forgive me and I'll spare thee ... tonight - promise and g'night!

site steward

(08/30/2001; 18:47:18 MDT - Msg ID: 60556)

Fed's second straight day adding permanent reserves

Through today's outright purchase of $642 million in U.S. Government debt, the Fed's two-day total in permanent reserves added to the banking system has reached $1.058 billion.

Additional open market operations today resulted in $4.75 billion temporarily added to banking reserves through 7-day repurchase agreements and $2 billion added through 28-day repos.

Fed funds were trading slightly above target at 3.56 percent.

R.

BR549

(08/30/2001; 18:51:19 MDT - Msg ID: 60557)

Separate Vacations?

KarenSue (msg#: 60543)�

I thought that your husband was �"outa here until after Labor Day, except for lurking. My wife is getting lonely. Wants to hit the golf course and talk about Jesus and wonderful things like that."

Is this the same guy you been sleeping with for 34 years? Please don't take offense. Some of my ATR buddies and me are just curious.

Very Respectfully.

BR549

slingshot

(08/30/2001; 18:53:21 MDT - Msg ID: 60558)

Blame Game

Who cares? Were in it for the gold. To save our SIX O'CLOCK. At this point it does not matter who but what am I doing to soften the blow to my wealth. Even Goldbugs will not be immune when the pointing begins.
Slingshot

auspec

(08/30/2001; 18:55:52 MDT - Msg ID: 60559)

sector, cb2, slingshot {and anyone else in need of a capital letter}

Sector- per your post #60547:
"With JPMC holding $300,000,000,000 in interest rate derivative VAR )value at risk) the cabal will die before admitting wrong headedness. They have bet half the net worth of the bank on these derivatives because they knew interest rates were linked to the price of gold and since the price of gold was controlled they had a perfect money machine." END
Of course you are looking directly into the heart {bowel in this case} of the beast with this IRD analysis. Can you spend a bit of copy on who the counterparties have been to this stacked deck manipulation? These parties have been chronic losers because of the manipulation but stand to reverse their fortunes when the explosion arrives. Who are they?

cb2- You're the kind of guy to give insomnia a good name! Get some rest, man, the future of free-gold may depend on it. I for one am tired of existing behind the 'gold curtain' even though a lifetime's fortune is likely to be made as we wait. Mr. GorbaRubin, TEAR DOWN THAT CURTAIN!! George Bush, too bad you can't put all this on clinton w/o also giving Dad his due, and possibly Ronnie too. Dems or repubs, all seem to cast the same shadow {govt}. Slush funds and smoothies, things got slightly out of hand, one for the history books, and a plague upon the land. Got an anchor?

slingshot- STREET SMART?? How{e} about smart enough to stay the hell away from the street?? Berserk, turmoil, chaos, inferno, historic event, NO? 1929 will no longer be the landmark date of catastrophic economic collapses. Gotta go, fresh out of cliches.
Regards to the faithful,
a

slingshot

(08/30/2001; 19:07:32 MDT - Msg ID: 60560)

Auspec Msg# 60559

Roger, Wilco, 10-4, Cabiesh, O-kie Dokie, and Good Night Mrs. Calanbash Wherever You Are.
Slingshot

Black Blade

(08/30/2001; 19:14:24 MDT - Msg ID: 60561)

Investors Pull $1.23 Billion From Funds

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010830/business_financial_fund_flows_dc_2.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors pulled a net $1.23 billion out of stock mutual funds in July amid a stalled stock market and deteriorating fund performance, new industry figures showed on Thursday.

Black Blade: Just the beginning.

Cavan Man

(08/30/2001; 19:26:41 MDT - Msg ID: 60562)

The Stranger 60531

The article you reference appeared in today's FT.

BILLYG

(08/30/2001; 19:38:46 MDT - Msg ID: 60563)

Do you know

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=nem&close_date=11%2F02%2F87&x=0&y=0 Looking back at stock charts for October of 1987 I looked up NEM (Newmont Mining) and noticed it went from 75 down to 30 in 8 days. If the market cracks in the next few months (days) will the some thing happen this time?

Also I remember one of the big problems with the crash of 1987 was getting though on the phones to your stockbroker. I wonder how long it will take their web sites to over load? Interesting times indeed. I love this stuff. Billy G

Cavan Man

(08/30/2001; 19:44:09 MDT - Msg ID: 60564)

"Parlous" current events

Too bad we are compelled to celebrate such poor economic news. Without a war on gold; in the context of free markets and without political economy; the world would be a better place and I personally wouldn't feel so guilty about cheering on the bad news each day.

Cavan Man

(08/30/2001; 19:48:27 MDT - Msg ID: 60565)

White Hills and $400K

If I may...

Invest 40% in AU metal and 10% in a mining company that has proven reserves which are unemcumbered. Eliminate all debt (mortgage optional). Buy 5% AG metal. Keep the balance in a short term treasury MM. If the market does nosedive you'll want to wait and see on the energy equities but definitely do include them in your plans. Store your savings in a private storage facility.

Gandalf the White

(08/30/2001; 20:21:20 MDT - Msg ID: 60566)

BILLYG (08/30/01; 19:38:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 60563)

BILLYG -- I think that NEM also had an adjustment due to a STOCKSPLIT during this period !
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(08/30/2001; 20:28:27 MDT - Msg ID: 60567)

A PICTURE of VOLATILITY !!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^N225&d=c&k=c4&t=5d<;-(

site steward

(08/30/2001; 20:42:23 MDT - Msg ID: 60568)

Belgian this morning touched upon levels of gold diversification

You said in the course of your commentary: ---"This brings us finally to the controversial discussion on the percentage of physical gold in your/mine/our/their possession, today! 5% - 10% - 20%...and this is, as far as the most courageous advocates dare to go."----

Your post prompted me to do an approximate summation of my worldly net worth. Judging from your comments, I guess you would probably call me courageous. The percentage of my net worth which is now safely stored in the form of physical gold (valued at today's market prices) is a very comfortable 93%.

The key word is "comfortable". This large position may seem quite extreme by most people's standards, but it has been built over my productive lifetime as my understanding of the evolving global political and economic situation has provided the prerequisite justification for these levels.

This method of operation is probably not suitable for everybody, but it sure works well for me!

Ninety-three percent!! Such is the pleasant peril of knowing a "thing or two" about gold and money!

R.

BR549

(08/30/2001; 20:44:16 MDT - Msg ID: 60569)

Adding Permanent Reserves

site steward (msg#: 60556)�

R,

RE: Your last post in ref to the Fed adding permanent reserves.

Aside from retiring debt, does Adding Permanent Reserves mean a contraction of the money supply to reduce inflation? What is the significance? What is the difference for repurchase agreements? Where does this Add Res's type of transaction appear on Fed financial statements, under U.S. government securities bought outright as an asset or other? What is the significance of adding to, rather than subtracting from reserves? i.e., what is the purpose and what does it mean to us?

You may have already answered this but if you did I missed it.

Thanks in advance,

BR549

BILLYG

(08/30/2001; 21:09:54 MDT - Msg ID: 60570)

Gandalf the White (08/30/01; 20:21:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 60566)

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=xau&close_date=11%2F02%2F87&x=0&y=0<<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>

That is posible but I also checked out the following from the chart I have posted.

XAU 150 to 90
ABX 7 to 4
ASA 65 to 42

Its been a long time since gold mining stocks where that high. (low :-) ) Have a golden day, Billy G.

Solomon Weaver

(08/30/2001; 21:20:40 MDT - Msg ID: 60571)

Randy....a little fun with your number.

93% of net worth in gold.

If gold goes up 5 times...you will only have 98% of your net worth in gold. So it doesn't really change your portfolio much.

And what about he who has $300,000 in an IRA, owes $300,000 on their home...and has $700 in the bank and $9300 in gold...are they as brave as you, from a NET perspective.

I would put at least 25% of your net worth in being the steward of the site...thanks....

. . . . . .

The other factor is what do you NOT have yourself in that many others do???

Hope you have at least 1% in silver.....

Poor old Solomon

goldquest

(08/30/2001; 21:29:01 MDT - Msg ID: 60572)

Gold in The IMF

Is the IMF getting nervous? As far as I know, no one asked but the IMF decided to release their policy on gold on 29 August!
http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/gold.htm

Solomon Weaver

(08/30/2001; 21:37:09 MDT - Msg ID: 60573)

NEM is different...then it had been in a bull now it is in a bear.

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^SPC&d=c&k=c1&c=nem&a=v&p=s&t=my&l=off&z=m&q=lFrom 1983 to 1987 NEM made a very rapid run up...so some of 87 action was reasonable correction.....NEM generally outperformed the S&P500 until about 1996.

If this link works....it is a real nice picture of something being fishy in the state of goldmark.

POS

turkey hunter

(08/30/2001; 21:44:47 MDT - Msg ID: 60574)

questions about the ESF

I got a letter from Sen. Grassley Republican Iowa. They haven't got any info about the gold reclassification but they sent me a history of the ESF.

CRS Report for Congress
The Exchange Stabilization Fund of the U.S. Treasury Department: Purpose, History, and
Legislative Activity
Updated Sept. 20th 1999
by Arlene Wilson

Summary

The ESF was established by Section 20 of the Gold Reserve Act of January 30 1934(48Stat. 337,341) to stabilize the exchange value of the dollar. At the time, The ESF received an appropriation of $2 billion from the revaluation of the U.S. gold holdings. Since then, no money has been appropriated; its income has come largely from interest on
investments and loans, as well as net gains made in transactions in the foreign exchange market. As of late Sept. 1999 the ESF had about $30 billion available to lend.
--------------
Turkey Hunter question; Does this mean that all the gold that was confiscated from the people of the U.S. is in the ESF?
---------------
Some congressional concern has been expressed about the ESF's ability to make foreign loans without congressional approval. Appropriation legislation in the 104th Congress
imposed limitations on the use of the ESF (P.L.104-52, Section632 and P.L. 104-208,Section 628), but the limitations expired at the end of the fiscal year 1997. Seven bills were introduced in the 105th Congress which would have imposed restrictions on the amount of ESF loans, but did not receive floor action. Amendment No. 16 (H.R. 4104) restricting the amount of ESF loans was defeated in a House vote on July 16 1998. In the 106th Congress H. R. 1540 (ESF Transparency and Accountability Act) which would impose limitations on ESF Loans, was introduced on April 22 1999 but has not received floor action.
-------------
Turkey Hunter question; If this is the case can the government do anything they want with the gold without congress knowing anything?

BR549

(08/30/2001; 22:24:12 MDT - Msg ID: 60575)

Sen. Grassley & the ESF

turkey hunter (msg#: 60574)�

Senator Grassley is one of my favorites. The following in reference to ESF, I think, is from the NY Fed's WEB site. I did a posing on this earlier.

NY Fed-"ESF accounts and activities are subject to Congressional oversight. Monthly reports on U.S. intervention activities and a monthly financial statement of the ESF are provided to Congress on a confidential basis. This is not usually public information. The New York Federal Reserve Bank makes a publicly available quarterly report to Congress. The manager of foreign operations prepares it.
The ESF was structured to be self-financing. The original Congressional appropriation and retained earnings, which are held in both dollars and foreign currency, are the resources for the Fund. The Gold Reserve Act of 1934 initially funded the ESF with resources resulting from the devaluation of the dollar, in terms of gold. $2 billion of the resulting valuation gain was appropriated by Congress to the ESF. Later, $1.8 billion of that was used to fulfill the initial U.S. quota subscription to the IMF.
Securities issued by foreign governments are what the New York Fed invests ESF foreign currency balances. This is because these instruments yield market-related rates of return and have a high degree of liquidity and credit quality. In addition to interest earned on assets, the ESF's balance sheet includes gains or losses on exchange operations as well as interest earned on assets.
ESF accounts and activities are subject to Congressional oversight. Monthly reports on U.S. intervention activities and a monthly financial statement of the ESF are provided to Congress on a confidential basis. This is not usually public information. The New York Federal Reserve Bank makes a publicly available quarterly report to Congress. It is prepared by the manager of foreign operations."

This info is provided to Congress in a confidential manner and is not publicly available according to my understanding or subject to the "Freedom of Information Act". (Similar to the FOMC meeting notes). I have been unable to find out anything about the "manager of foreign operations" or anything else concerning the specific activities of the NY Fed (via my research) on what they do with gold. I know the the NY Fed works as the agent for the Secretary of the Treasury in conducting foreign swap operations which I assume includes gold.

"Turkey Hunter question; If this is the case can the government do anything they want with the gold without congress knowing anything?"

BR-Yes, I think from what I know that the ESF can and do what it wants and not disclose ots activities to the U.S. citizens, for some reason.

I am glad to know that a great Senator is interested. If you need some additional detail, please let me know and I'll dig out my notes.

Regards,

BR549

Black Blade

(08/30/2001; 22:41:22 MDT - Msg ID: 60576)

Sinking stocks threaten a fragile global economy

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010830/n30306098.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK, Aug 30 (Reuters) - A new wave of selling across world stock markets this week threatens to undermine U.S. consumer confidence and tip a global economy already on the cusp of recession into a prolonged downturn, analysts say. The world's three most powerful economies -- the United States, Japan and Germany -- are all essentially at a standstill. The list of countries that are not growing is long and lengthening. The global economy is taking its cues from the U.S. economy, which is hanging by the thread of consumer spending.

Black Blade: The so-called consumer spending has ended as they see the "Bone Pile" growing and they worry about the continuing losses in their retirement plans. There is no light at the end of this pitch-black tunnel. There is absolutely no positive news to be found anywhere. Pied Pipers and Talking Heads are grasping at nonexistent straws. This recession will be truly ugly. Get free of chains of debt, get very selective on investments, and get PM insurance while it's still cheap. Even the US Government will have to admit at some point that the Budget Surplus is nothing but a stupid myth. There has been no surplus since the early days of Lyndon B. Johnson's reign.

BTW, the missing and destroyed IRS refunds that were contracted to Mellon Bank from the Northeast US could now run into the $Billions! That cash won't be in the economy anytime soon. "Government in-action" - "Interesting."

Golden Dreams All!

Black Blade

(08/30/2001; 23:02:00 MDT - Msg ID: 60577)

JUST IN! IMF REPORT LEAKED! - IMF warns of a significant danger of global recession

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3BOSJX0RC&live=true&tagid=IXLYK5HZ8CC
Snippit:

Economists at the International Monetary Fund have warned of a "significant danger" of a global recession along the lines of the early 1980s and early 1990s. A leaked draft version of the IMF's World Economic Outlook, obtained by Financial Times Deutschland, predicts the world economy will grow by 2.8 per cent this year but states that there could be "a much deeper and more protracted global downturn". Fresh evidence that the IMF's fears might be realised was released in the US on Thursday, as official figures showed the savings rate jumped to a two-year high in July. The news strengthened fears of a sharp slowdown in the consumer spending that has been the principal support for the US economy this year.

The World Economic Outlook is to be published ahead of the IMF's annual meetings at the end of next month. It may be revised after it is discussed by the IMF's executive directors next week but is unlikely to be substantially changed.

Black Blade: LEAKED DRAFT!!! It will likely be a more severe recession. Very "Grim"

(08/30/2001; 23:09:29 MDT - Msg ID: 60578)

@ Solomon Weaver - usagold.com msg#: 60571

Quote:
-------------------------------------------------------
And what about he who has $300,000 in an IRA, owes $300,000 on their home...and has $700 in the bank and $9300 in gold...
-------------------------------------------------------

...that sounds about right for the typical American-
minus the "$9300 in gold", that is.

God bless America-
We've traded her for a bowl of pottage...

When all is said and done, we'll find that the grain is owned by others, and that there is a lien on the bowl.
We will no longer have title to enough land to grow more grain, nor have the manufacturing capacity to make more bowls.

"...the borrower is servant to the lender."
Proverbs 22:7

Black Blade

(08/30/2001; 23:09:54 MDT - Msg ID: 60579)

Asia In Free Fall

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Hammered again. The leaked IMF draft just adds fuel to the fire. There are still persistent rumors that the BOJ is in the market "Big Time" to prop up the Nikkei, but it appears it is not working. "Interesting Times"

Netking

(08/30/2001; 23:33:48 MDT - Msg ID: 60580)

"U.S. Iraq attack to involve ground troops" - Debka Intelligence

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=24283Snippit:
An imminent U.S. attack against Iraq will not be limited to air strikes and missile barrages but involve ground forces, according to sources quoted by the DEBKA-Net-Weekly intelligence service.

U.S. Marines who trained in desert warfare last month were flown to the region this week, according to the report. The Marines were trained in air landings of men, armor and artillery and in combined ground and air operations. They were told in no uncertain terms they could be called upon to move against Iraqi army forces in eastern Jordan and western Iraq.

Signs in Riyadh, Kuwait, Jerusalem and Cairo point to an imminent U.S. operation. U.S. and Israeli spy satellites and planes flying over central and western Iraq last week found Scud B-1 and Scud-C missile launchers deployed at two Iraqi air bases . . . .

Black Blade

(08/30/2001; 23:43:06 MDT - Msg ID: 60581)

Market Recovery Doubtful Anytime Soon Given Rampant Supply of Bad News

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/010831/spiraling_stocks.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (AP) -- The stock market hasn't just been falling since last Labor Day -- it's been plunging, so much so that last year's levels suddenly don't seem so bad. When the Nasdaq composite index accelerated its decline shortly after Labor Day and lost 10 percent in September, no one imagined the market would still be tanking a year later. But it is, and the selloffs, which had been confined to technology, have spread to the overall market. As if that weren't enough, the selling frenzy shows no sign of fading. ``I see nothing that tells me we are at the end,'' said Gary Kaltbaum, market technician for Investors' Edge Partners.

More quotes:

The numbers themselves are grim.

``All bets are still off. ... I have to wonder if there is a lot more to go,'' Kaltbaum said.

``There is no light at the end of the tunnel,'' Johnson said.

Black Blade: "Grim" indeed! No good news to be found anywhere in this Recession! Sound familiar? Sleepers everywhere have awakened.

Golden Dreams!

site steward

(08/31/2001; 00:18:55 MDT - Msg ID: 60582)

Comments on reserves and the Fed's open market operations for BR549 (msg#: 60569)

Great questions! And you're right, I've provided various elaborations through posts over time, but the dynamic flow of visitors passing through necessitates periodic recapitulation. My only hope is that my explanations become more clear and concise with practice.

Q: "Aside from retiring debt, does Adding Permanent Reserves mean a contraction of the money supply to reduce inflation?"

A: Actually, these operations do nothing to retire the debt. What happens is that the ownership of the particular debt securities change -- from various private accounts to the Fed's account. You are probably thinking of a "buy back" program of the Treasury Department which would, in fact, result in the retirement of debt.

Now to address the second part of your question about the affect on money supply.

When the Fed adds permanent reserves to the banking system through the outright purchase of these Treasury securities, it takes ownership of the security as an asset on its balance sheet and compensates the former owner with payment in dollars. These dollars are truly "created out of thin air", and they offset the security (asset) by being recorded on the liability side of the Fed's balance sheet.

The intent of the operation is that these newly created dollars are immediately deposited in the bond sellers� accounts with commercial banks, thus bolstering the reserves of the nation's banking system as a whole. So you can see, this process not only adds reserves, but it adds directly to the money supply, too. And assuming that willing borrowers may be found, the commercial banking system may utilize surplus reserves to further expand the money supply through the "miracle" of (fractional reserve) banking. Quite to the contrary of your initial supposition, the overall effect of these reserve additions tends toward inflation (meaning, an expanded money supply).

And I'll throw this in, too, just to cover the bases. In those special cases where the Treasury Department is buying back (retiring) its debt, contrary to conventional wisdom, even that kind of activity is not necessarily indicative of a contraction in the money supply. It may, in fact, cause no change whatsoever to either the level of banking reserves or the level of the money supply. This is possible because the Treasury Department keeps a goodly share of its funds in Tax and Loan accounts held by commercial banks. If it buys back debt securities from private holders (rather than buying back securities held by the Fed), the net result is simply a transfer of dollars (commercial bank reserves) from the Treasury account to the accounts of the former bond holders; meaning, no net effect on the level of either money supply or bank reserves.

Q: "What is the significance?"

A: Outright purchases by the Fed may be inspired by a number of factors. Most obvious (and most innocent) is in the course of supporting monetary policy vis-a-vis the FOMC target rate, if the System Account manager acting in NY on behalf of the Federal Reserve deems that there is a persistent need for additional liquidity as signaled by fed funds trading above the FOMC target, then an outright purchase to provide "permanent" reserves may be in order to provide banks with the reserves that would seemingly be in short supply. That said, what has been most remarkable over the course of many recent months is the fact that the Fed has conducted a great many of these outright purchases even at times when the overnight market for fed funds (dollars) among financial institutions has been at or below the FOMC target -- reflecting ample reserves for their immediate banking needs.

Again, short of busting a brain cell, I cannot right now conceive of an outright purchase (permanent add) by the Fed that does not tend toward inflating the supply of money, either directly or indirectly. I'd say that's the primary significance for Centennial's clientele to bear in mind.

Q: "What is the difference for repurchase agreements?"

A: Any given repurchase agreement bolsters reserves (and all that that implies for the money supply via the miracle of banking) just like the outright purchases described above. The difference is that the effect is temporary, as the transaction is due to be reversed within the timeframe prescribed by the agreement.

Q: "Where does this Add Res's type of transaction appear on Fed financial statements, under U.S. government securities bought outright as an asset or other?"

A: The Statement of Condition of the Federal Reserve Banks represents the consolidate balance sheet of our illustrious "central" bank. Securities held as assets on the balance sheet are distinguished as those bought outright and those held under repurchase agreement.

Q: "What is the significance of adding to, rather than subtracting from reserves? i.e., what is the purpose and what does it mean to us?"

A: This should now be evident from answers previously given.

If you (or anyone else following along, for that matter) have found this information helpful or of beneficial educational/economic use, then I urge you to show your due appreciation for Michael's efforts to arrange for and bring you these services. Please choose Centennial when fulfilling all of your precious metals investment requirements.

Thanks for your consideration and participation!

Randy

PS.
Solomon Weaver says to me in regard to my revelation yesterday of 93% net worth stored as gold, "I would put at least 25% of your net worth in being the steward of the site...thanks.... The other factor is what do you NOT have yourself in that many others do???"

Ha HA! Deprivation is not my style, but I definitely do continue to choose (and always have) to live comfortably within my means. And I see what you're saying with regard to the site. Thank you. You see, for me, this is essentially a break-even dabbling... a labor of love. I truly enjoy the various historical and philosophical elements of economics, and in particular I've been as happy as a pig in mud ever since "monetary policy" moved to center stage of the economic theater of political thought at large. And now it should be becoming ever clearer to growing numbers of even casual observers that, thanks to the brilliant minds of some clever thinkers who have a deeper understanding than most who have walked before them, gold is officially poised to shine in value as never before. I'm just here ("at" USAGOLD) happily doing time in the "orchestra pit" because the front row seats were already filled!View Yesterday's Discussion.

Spartacus

(08/31/2001; 01:37:03 MDT - Msg ID: 60583)

They are getting nervous....

The Euro/U.S. Dollar
Shore Up Euro to Fight Slump, Japan Official Warns Europe (International Herald Tribune)
Friday August 31, 2.001. 8.00AM GMT.

"Undervalued against both the yen and the dollar, the weak euro is creating huge problems for the global economy," Mr. Kuroda said. "Japan and the U.S. simply cannot compete with euro exporters."

Belgian

(08/31/2001; 01:48:24 MDT - Msg ID: 60584)

@ Sir Randy

# 60568. Much more than * courageous * ! And, please do know that I'm appreciating (100%), what you do and who you are .

Thank you fine Sir.

BR549

(08/31/2001; 02:45:00 MDT - Msg ID: 60585)

So the Fed buys Treasury Securities from its member banks?

This expands member banks abilities to make loans via fractional reserves.

The Fed compensates the former owners of securities (not the treasury) with FRN's?

The transaction is carried on the Fed balance sheet as an asset? (And also as a receivable?)

The transaction is also carried on the liability side of the Fed balance sheet? (As a payable?)

Former owners accounts at member banks are carried as credits to depositor's accounts?

Result, the money supply is expanded via fractional banking without having to print money?

If goods and services remain constant, then inflation results?

Fed target rates are judgment calls that may cause the Fed to buy or sell Treasury securities regardless of other factors?

Even if the FOMC overnight rate dictates an above condition, sometimes these inflationary moves take place anyhow?

Repurchases put a time limit on the manipulations of above.

The reason that the Fed does this is to put liquidity into the Bankster system so more fractional reserves can be created?

Is that about it? If not, please let me know.

Thanks, I think I am getting there.

BR549

lamprey_65

(08/31/2001; 05:03:43 MDT - Msg ID: 60586)

Caught in a feedback loop?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010831/t125873.html"A stronger yen resulting from a Wall Street slide weighed on major exporters such as consumer electronics giant Sony Corp , which fell for a third day to close down 5.37 percent at 5,290, the lowest close since March 1999.

A stronger yen erodes overseas revenues of exporters when repatriated to the Japanese currency."

I noticed yesterday that the dollar began to tank AFTER the DOW began its descent...Japanese and other foreigners repatriating monies and cashing out, thereby causing the dollar to drop as they convert to their native currencies? (Which bolsters the Yen, adding to problems for Japanese exporters --- not to mention the banking problems).

Not a pretty picture, folks.

LeSin

(08/31/2001; 05:15:30 MDT - Msg ID: 60587)

Sir Singlion From the Eagle Castle - "Interesting Statements - Indeed"

Japan under pressure as $ systems under threat.�
(singlion) Aug 31, 04:55

"The Worldwide scramble to appropriate wealth through "financial manipulation" is the driving force behind this crisis. It is also the source of economic turmoil and social devastation. In the words of renowned currency speculator and billionaire George Soros (who made 1.6 billion dollars of speculative gains in the dramatic crash of the British pound in 1992) "extending the market mechanism to all domains has the potential of destroying society".4 This manipulation of market forces by powerful actors constitutes a form of financial and economic warfare."

Snapshots from 1997:
��"In Japan-where the yen has tumbled to new lows-"the Korean scenario" is viewed (according to economist Michael Hudson), as a "dress rehearsal" for the take over of Japan's financial sector by a handful of Western investment banks. The big players are Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Morgan Gruenfell among others who are buying up Japan's bad bank loans at less than ten percent of their face value. In recent months both US Secretary of the Treasury Robert Rubin and Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright have exerted political pressure on Tokyo insisting "on nothing less than an immediate disposal of Japan's bad bank loans-preferably to US and other foreign "vulture investors" at distress prices. To achieve their objectives they are even pressuring Japan to rewrite its constitution, restructure its political system and cabinet and redesign its financial system... Once foreign investors gain control of Japanese banks, these banks will move to take over Japanese industry..."

We are now facing a strengthening yen as Japanese funds are repatriated and the real pressure are on the $ faction but IMF ASKS JAPAN TO AGREE TO FINANCIAL SYSTEM ASSESSMENT:
��The International Monetary Fund has asked Japan to agree to a special assessment of its financial system.Such an assessment would involve IMF and World Bank staff, officials from financial supervisory authorities and central banks.
A Japanese government official said that accepting an IMF team would be difficult but added that Tokyo is opened to the IMF giving opinions about the economy.The official added that the IMF has also pressed for stepped-up action on Japan's bad loan problem.

We must watch this situation very carefully

Black Blade

(08/31/2001; 05:41:53 MDT - Msg ID: 60588)

IMPORTANT! - LEAKED IMF REPORT!

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3BOSJX0RC&live=true&tagid=IXLYK5HZ8CC

As I posted last night, this "leaked" IMF draft of next month's report warns of very "Grim" Global Recession similar to the early 1980's! I say much worse, we shall see. There could be some reaction to this info. Time to definitely consider adding PMs as portfolio insurance as we know what happened in the early 1980's. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(08/31/2001; 05:50:22 MDT - Msg ID: 60589)

Global Market Action - Grim

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asian Markets got skaughtered last night and European Markets look "Grim" as well. We live in "Interesting Times."

Cavan Man

(08/31/2001; 06:00:25 MDT - Msg ID: 60590)

Our favorite Austrians.....

are prominently mentioned in the 8-20 edition of Forbes. Sorry to say no mention of CB (too). However, for myself, CB (too) follows right behind Mises and Hayek. Keep up the good stuff Cobra!

Black Blade

(08/31/2001; 06:01:14 MDT - Msg ID: 60591)

Nikkei Could Soon Breach 10,000

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010831/business_markets_japan_stocks_nikkei_dc.html
Snippit:

TOKYO (Reuters) - Tokyo's once-mighty Nikkei 225 average could soon breach the key 10,000 level for the first time in 17 years, analysts say, slapped down by economic weakness and slow-moving structural reforms. ``I want to believe the market won't dip under 10,000, but it's a struggle staying positive right now,'' said Yoshinobu Muraoka, fund manager at DLIBJ Asset Management, which oversees 402.65 billion yen ($3.37 billion) of investment trusts. ``We know the Japanese economy is bad, but a pretty bearish scenario forms when you throw in dwindling confidence in policy and heightening risk of a global recession.''

Black Blade: Global Recession? - yes!

Black Blade

(08/31/2001; 06:08:32 MDT - Msg ID: 60592)

Be Afraid - Be Very Afraid

http://www.capitalinsight.co.uk/pdf/300801gdp.pdf
Interesting commentary.

Black Blade

(08/31/2001; 06:18:09 MDT - Msg ID: 60593)

Priming the Pump?

http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
There appears to have been a concerted effort to push futures higher in positive territory in the last hour. Could be the Working Groups in Financial Markets trying to "Prime the Pump" when many are taking off for the long holiday weekend. Failure today could be crushing come Tuesday.

uponroof

(08/31/2001; 06:28:12 MDT - Msg ID: 60594)

Black Blade......IMF Warning

Thanks for that very important article. The IMF carrys some hefty weight in determining economic outlook. Recall what happened to the dollar after they proclaimed it overvalued and dangerous.

Should be an interesting day in the markets.

Also, from the article: "...The point is also made by some US economists, who contend the US should focus for now on additional measures to revive growth - rather than on shoring up its shrinking federal budget surplus..."

Note this second to last paragraph in the article (above) about focusing on growth not dwindling budget surpluses. A good idea but something that will never happen. The dwindling budget surplus is being demigogged by the democrats daily. The latest being Senator Hillary Clinton who suggested passing measures to retract whatever's left of Bush's tax refund package. The democrats will be relentless in their pounding away at the loss of the surplus (which hubby Bill worked so hard to create-PUKE!). This approaching economic mess will become a political mud fight with nothing of real substance to stave off the inevitable.....very similar to the late 70's and early 80's.

Thanks again.

Have a great day!

Cavan Man

(08/31/2001; 06:47:29 MDT - Msg ID: 60595)

Black Blade

Yeoman's work Sir!

uponroof

(08/31/2001; 07:31:19 MDT - Msg ID: 60596)

BIS Banker Speaks on Gold.....

http://globalarchive.ft.com/globalarchive/article.html?id=010831001548&query=Giacomo+PanizzuttiLast night's MIDAS included a breif Bloomberg report on Giacomo Panizutti, a BIS BIG MAHOFF asserting amounts of gold lent over the past 2 years. Well this morning's FT has picked this up and with great detail. Note the slant on GATA and Mr Panizutti's convenient timing, of his (dis) information in relation to the Boston trial date.

Hey folks, a few short months ago GATA's position would have carried absolutely no credibility within this world class media outlet. Today it gets at least a fair shake...and perhaps even more credibility than the BIG MAHOFF at BIS! Nice work Ms. Adrienne Roberts

Cavan Man

(08/31/2001; 07:48:26 MDT - Msg ID: 60598)

uponroof

The focus needs to be on fractional gold banking and the gold carry trade etc. A multiple of three would take that number to Veneroso's. Do we expect the BIS, even "off the record" to admit more gold has been "fractionally" lent vis a vis esoteric paper instruments than exists in the Euro system. THE PROBLEM IS THE PAPER.

(08/31/2001; 08:27:18 MDT - Msg ID: 60600)

uponroof (08/31/01; 07:31:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 60596)

http://www.bis.org/publ/r_qt0106d.pdfQuoting Howe;
http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary12.html#anchor134137

May 26, 2000. Gold: Can't Bank with It; Can't Bank without It!

"At the end of 1999, the BIS put the total notional amount of gold derivatives at US$243 billion, up from $189 billion at the end of June. Converting the year-end notional amount to tonnes at the year-end gold price ($290/oz.) gives just over 26,000 tonnes."

See page 7 of the BIS link for the latest numbers.

Again quoting Howe:

"What does this number mean? How should it be interpreted? Is it really as large as it looks? Analysts are unlikely to agree. I look at it this way. If the net short physical position is 10,000 tonnes, and if that position has been fully hedged (far from certain), the total notional value of all that business should be around 20,000 tonnes. In that event, using 26,000 tonnes as the total notional amount for all gold derivatives, the net short gold derivatives position -- over and above the net short physical position -- is about 6000 tonnes, and the bullion banks have undertaken to deliver this amount in addition to what they must deliver to cover the net short physical position of 10,000 tonnes."

In other words, if the net short physical is 5,000 tonnes, as some suggest, we are looking at a naked short of 16,000 tonnes (26,000-2*5,000).

uponroof

(08/31/2001; 08:27:21 MDT - Msg ID: 60601)

Cavan Man

Yes, fractional gold banking, gold carry trade is the folcrum of our battle. Your point is well taken. However, I am very pleased with the approach Ms Roberts took on this story. It may not be zeroing in on our bread and butter issues but it sure raises some questions about previously unquestioned institutional practices.

This paragraph in particular rings of questioning authority:

"..His comments come at a time when the 15 European central banks who signed the 1999 Washington Agreement on gold are under mounting pressure to publicise their lending levels, and some analysts think the interview might have been an unobtrusive way of doing this..."

"An unobtrusive way of doing this"....in other words a calculated pre-emptive disclosure designed to minimize further prying questions from the likes of GATA. Very clever on Ms. Roberts part to point this out. One would almost detect that the BIS is on the defensive from the tone of this report.

Chris Powell

(08/31/2001; 08:46:21 MDT - Msg ID: 60605)

BIS official's comments seen as responding to GATA

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/875Conspiracy theorists, yes -- but conspiracy
theorists who made the Financial Times today!

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/875

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

John Doe

(08/31/2001; 10:32:32 MDT - Msg ID: 60608)

Canuck

I guess the short answer to your questions posed yesterday is that the system, net, is always running inflation in money supply terms, especially since the full global fiat regime was put into play in 1971. People and machines produce goods and services, but the money masters are always two steps ahead in siphoning off their share. If the system ever even begins to approach monetary contraction, the Fed et al will monetize everything in sight and the .gov will ramp up the deficits.

What modern analysts describe as "deflation" is actually a slowing in the prior rapid growth of the money supply and/or a decrease in the prior high rate of money velocity. This may well seem "like deflation" and can even produce deflation-like (falling) effects on prices. But the prices mainly affected will be among those items that were artificially pumped due to the prior excessive money growth. Unfortunately, anything that was already collared during the expansion phase to prevent price signals, e.g., certain commodities, may well continue to display falling or stagnant prices if the collars are not lifted. I hope gold and silver are not among these.

In any event, due to it's so-called structure, the system must inflate forever or else commerce grinds to a stop, but only the destruction of much of the past debt will clear the system. Yet, the destruction of so much unproductive debt will destroy finance. This is the final quandary of an irrational, floating unit of monetary measure. No fundamental constants in finance means no science of money, no predictability, and certainly no economic justice. Economics degenerates into a mere religion or propaganda organ. There is a vestige of a system at play here, but it falls into the category of chaos dynamics and managing those effects.

Mankind can do (and has done) better than this. The banks and .gov want to have our cake and eat it too, but ultimately, they will end up with mostly pie on their collectivist, anti-free-market faces.

Gandalf the White

(08/31/2001; 10:39:18 MDT - Msg ID: 60609)

WOWSERS Black Blade !!!

You are "on-a-roll" !!! Keep those gems coming !!!
The Hobbits thank you for all your efforts.
<;-)

Old Yeller

(08/31/2001; 11:20:45 MDT - Msg ID: 60610)

The writer uses the word interesting'several times

http://www.prudentbear.com/boards/user/non-frames/message.asp?forumid=4&messageid=67044&threadid=67033
I would concur with that assessment.

USAGOLD

(08/31/2001; 11:25:13 MDT - Msg ID: 60611)

Today's Commentary Includes a Quick Look BIS/t the Panizutti Comments

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.htmlNote: My (almost)daily, on-line Commentary and Review is
available to prospective clients on a trial basis by registering at the link above. US-based registrants will also receive a hard copy of our 32 page News & Views: A Quarterly Review of Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. The Quarterly Review will also be available for download here in the near future.

8/31/01

In Brief: Gold was down in New
York this morning with trading
still centering around ECB
interest rate cut and now a
weaker euro. (I will leave up
yesterday's report on the euro
rate cut and currency
introduction for your weekend
review.)

In an interesting and unexpected
twist, the Bank for International
Settlements, in the person of
Giacomo Panizutti (Head of
Foreign Exchange and Gold) came
out unofficially sanctioning a
5200 tonne total gold loan
figure. Some private sector
analysts put the figure much
higher -- in the 15,000 to 25,000
tonne range. Panizutti's comments
are the first I can recall from a
central bank official on the
overall gold lending pool. A
Financial Times summary of the
report which appears in an
upcoming Alchemist, the quarterly
London Bullion Marketing
Association's flagship
publication, contains the
puzzling caveat that Mr.
Panizutti is speaking for himself
and not the BIS. This may have to
do with the fact that much of the
lending that goes through the
bullion banks is by private
contract and not subject to
public scrutiny. As I pointed out
in a recent article posted at the
USAGOLD forum (reprinted in its
entirety below - - - "Some
Saturday Night Reading. . ."),
the lower figure probably does
not include the fractional
reserve lending of gold. The
shaky nature of the claim is made
even more wobbly by the fact that
Mr. Panizutti appears to estimate
(guesstimate?) the level of
lending outside the fifteen
central banks that signed the
Washington Agreement.

This morning's gold trading was
characterized as quiet going into
the long Labor Day weekend in the
United States. Gold seems to want
to go higher and the euro lower.
(See following article.) Gold
demand at Centennial Precious
Metals/ USAGOLD has been very
strong the past few days with
investors citing as primary
incentives the flagging stock
market (now under the benchmark
10,000 figure) and general unease
over the economic situation.
September and October usually end
up the worst months for equities
globally and the best months for
international gold demand. That
combination could lead to some
interesting market action in the
weeks and months ahead.

That's it for today. We'll see
you back here on Tuesday. Have a
Good Weekend.

BR549

(08/31/2001; 11:28:55 MDT - Msg ID: 60612)

Permanent Reserves and other definitions

Randy,

My thanks for your assistance in helping me to define in real terms what the Federal Reserve does via adding to permanent reserves, how they account for it on their balance sheets and financial statements, what it does to fractional reserves for member banks in expanding the money supply, what this does to inflation/deflation, etc. and your great work at providing this current financial information to this site on a timely basis.

However, it seems as though some interpret this attempt to get at the truth as an endorsement of Fed activities and goals. I would suggest that those of differing economic persuasions at least take the time a go back through all of the threads that you and I directed at each other in reference to the above topic and attempt to understand it for themselves. Once having accomplished that, then those others may then be able to understand the "real world" and then put forth their own Conceptual eClownomics as a result.

I am getting a little thin skinned I guess.

Thanks again for your efforts in my behalf.

Regards,

BR549

site steward

(08/31/2001; 11:29:09 MDT - Msg ID: 60613)

Through open market operations the Fed adds $4.5 billion more reserves

Through five-day repurchase agreements the Fed provided $4.5 billion in additional temporary reserves to the nation's banking system. (please see my prior post today for additional info on these operations)

Today's action looked justified in support of policy this morning -- the market in overnight funds was trading tighter (3.688%) than the FOMC target.

R.

USAGOLD

(08/31/2001; 11:37:48 MDT - Msg ID: 60614)

Corrections and Dreams of Happy Euros Dancing in Their Heads. . . .

My headline got scramblied somehow. Supposed to read:

Today's Commentary Includes a Quick Look at the BIS/ Panizutti Comments

-----------

Also, the euro is now trading down .77� -- a significant turnaround from yesterday's up move. This may be the result of the point I made yesterday about lowering euro rates being the "wrong move at the wrong time." A strong euro will not occur in a vacuum. Europe has to want it; and they have to do something to make it happen. I've taken golf shots with a lacksadaisical attitude hoping that fate will smile nobly on me -- dreams of a great shot dancing through my head. It never works. My ball promptly visits the water or makes friends with a nearby tree. . . . . .So maybe the euro needs a golf lesson -- or is that "gold lesson?" Did they lower rates yesterday hoping forex would overlook the fact the policy looked like the "same old-same old." As I said yesterday, if its going to be inflation in tandem, then neither currency is hedge against the other. Only gold will get the job done for the investor.

site steward

(08/31/2001; 11:48:33 MDT - Msg ID: 60615)

Thanks, BR549

"...it seems as though some interpret this attempt to get at the truth as an endorsement of Fed activities and goals."

Ha Ha! If true, that's quite amazing, isn't it? Does my 93% gold diversification sound like the position of "true paper believer"?

The only thing I endorse is man's humanity to his fellow man in conjunction with the pursuit of life, liberty, and happiness/property. I advocate physical gold ownership as a key component in the grand scheme of our interdependent lives on earth.

As for the rest, I find it helps to understand how the various components of the world function, particularly the important elements of money, banking and economics. I would sure hope that the larger portion of the population is like you -- able to recognize the merits of a dispassionate examination and presentation of such fundamental items as we attempt to discuss here (banking, money, investments, etc).

I see that you had a list of additional points of inquiry. I'll try to get to those in a bit, but first things first. I haven't had anything to eat yet today.

Away.... in quest of a sandwich.

R.

site steward

(08/31/2001; 13:50:16 MDT - Msg ID: 60616)

Is your portfolio capable of weathering a long Labor Day Weekend?

Because you never know what "tomorrow" may bring, call Centennial today!

My advice to you.

R.

Netking

(08/31/2001; 14:28:55 MDT - Msg ID: 60617)

Hitachi cuts 14,700 jobs

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1518000/1518222.stmHitachi, just the latest in what will be a long list we're all sure has said they'll cut 14,700 jobs. The company also warned that it expected to make a 140bn yen($1.2bn) loss for the full year to March, rather than the 90bn yen profit it had previously predicted.

Netking however is more interested in those Japanese banks for the moment . . .

Tam

(08/31/2001; 14:30:53 MDT - Msg ID: 60618)

Easy to read COTs gold open interest and commercial shorts down 12,000 contracts

http://www.321gold.com/cot_gold.htmlIt's a pretty big drop in open interest and commercial shorts for such a small move in gold. Remember, we are moving into the highest potential for gold and silver from a seasonal time. Now, this week and next is about the best time of the year to be buying physical gold.

CoBra(too)

(08/31/2001; 14:43:24 MDT - Msg ID: 60619)

I'm Impressed -

Just before the last real summer (Labor Day) Weekend the BLS has come out with some marginal positive statitics - not that they won't get revised at a later date, though, that's beside the point - No, I'm impressed with the resilience of the bear, only allowing a marginal (up)beat tone. Insinuating these clowns are really beat - hopefully not around the Mulbery B. - and they couldn't even start to change the drone of worsening ecomic news around the globe.

Still, all have a great holiday weekend, as next week the beat will go on in sincerity - best to all of you
cb2

Netking

(08/31/2001; 14:43:40 MDT - Msg ID: 60620)

Japan II . . . heading to "Skid Row?"

Goldbugs, we have only seen a small preview of what will really happen there & elsewhere yes. . . for those without gold & real hope things will ger very grim - Netking

Snippit:
" . . . bad debts built up on risky property and share speculation in the high-spending 1980s - estimates go as high as 200,000bn yen($169bn) - are crippling corporate Japan . . . so there is little prospect that new jobs will appear in a hurry - not least, says Mr Takeshita, because Japanese companies have yet to face up to the role their own structures have played in exacerbating the situation."

"This hollowing-out is happening at a rapid pace... We will strive to ensure a stronger safety net, but it's possible that if domestic companies slim down too fast, it may be insufficient" - Masajuro Shiokawa, Japanese finance minister.

Sierra Madre

(08/31/2001; 14:51:53 MDT - Msg ID: 60621)

Citibank arrives in Mexico with axe in hand....

Rumor has it that Citibank is to chop 9,000 employees and executives from the payroll of Banamex, Mexico's premier bank, now the property of Citibank.

These are highly paid people with cushy jobs, la cr�me de la cr�me - and they will shortly be out on the street looking for non-existent job openings. Who will hire an ex-banker?

"globalization"= "Americanization". These up to now, complacent ex-Banamex people are finally going to realize what dollarization and US takeover means. It doesn't mean "business as usual, only using Dollars". Capital arrives with its owners and they lay down the rules. No more three hour lunches paid by the Bank. In fact, no more lunches, period.

Mexico will have to get used to US customs, it appears. And, later on, US methods of taxation.

Monterrey, Mexico's leading industrial city, is in mourning, its main industries on the verge of bankruptcy, what with the "strong peso" (at least for the time being) and disappearing markets in the US, while the owners fly about the world in $45 million Dollar jets entertaining friends and customers. "Let them eat cake", is what they are thinking, I guess.

No one has a clue as to what to do, except find who to blame.

Sierra

auspec

(08/31/2001; 15:12:42 MDT - Msg ID: 60622)

Tribute

Just a moment of grattitude for the many posters, present as well as past, who have given countless hours and/or years to the pages of this Forum. For various reasons, many have moved on, some with ease and some with difficulty. This is truly a dynamic place. Enough said. Thanks to the many!
0091D37807

Black Blade

(08/31/2001; 15:18:06 MDT - Msg ID: 60623)

Wall Street's summer: Profits evaporate, job cuts surge

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010831/n31206725_2.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK, Aug 31 (Reuters) - It was a rough summer for Wall Street's investment banks: Quarterly earnings are expected to drop by as much as 48 percent and prospects for a late-year recovery grow dimmer by the day. Wall Street firms, including Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MWD) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS), are cutting staff and costs to cope with evaporating profits in a stock market that is close to hitting the 2-year lows carved out in April. The financial industry is reeling from a sharp decline in merger activity and new stock offerings, two of the securities industry's two biggest money makers.

Black Blade: This is not good news for the bankers and investment houses as it relates to the drag on Wall Street on the heels of brokers tossed upon the "Bone Pile" and corporate earnings that now seem to have gone to "Money Heaven." There was very little action on Wall Street today and with that note, one has to wonder if the Working Groups in Financial Markets were slugging it out with sellers for miniscule positive gains ahead of the holiday weekend. Speaking of holiday weekend, I am gone to Yellowstone NP (just north of Alan Greenspan in Jackson, WY) for some hiking, fishing and beer consumption with family and will check in occasionally. Thanks to all here who have kept the "Golden Light} glowing bright. Have a good "Golden" weekend all.

Late breaking news - LAM Research (LRCX) is laying off 10% of their workforce - piling up more "Bones" on the ever growing "Bone Pile."

Gold Trail Update

(08/31/2001; 16:03:52 MDT - Msg ID: 60624)

The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated

The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.

CoBra(too)

(08/31/2001; 17:51:31 MDT - Msg ID: 60625)

- BB - you're a gem ... thank you -

and as the London City expects another 140K lay-offs, due to the soft economy - can you say recession, or - good Lord - depression - Shroders just fired its CEO, blaming him for a 68% contraction of earnings in the first half of 01, getting them out of investment banking. -

The former Shroder's CEO should instead get a merit ...
though, again the messenger is going to be dis-inherited for the sin of parlaying his masters SPIN!
Chin-chin - cb2

Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD

(08/31/2001; 18:05:00 MDT - Msg ID: 60626)

Last chance/notice on these Swedish gold kronors... to be replaced tomorrow with a new offer!

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

Swedish Gold

10 & 20 Kronor Coins

Uncommonly good prices on these uncommon coins.

Each month, watch your portfolio grow!

BR549

(08/31/2001; 20:14:37 MDT - Msg ID: 60627)

Just north of Alan Greenspan in Jackson, WY

Black Blade (msg#: 60623)�
"Speaking of holiday weekend, I am gone to Yellowstone NP (just north of Alan Greenspan in Jackson, WY) for some hiking, fishing and beer consumption with family and will check in occasionally."

BB-How in the heck are we supposed to find out what is going on in the "real world" without you. Did you get this time off approved by us here at the forum? I love Yellowstone NP and Jackson Hole, both are some of my favorites.

No kidding, I join my friend c2b in applauding your links. Have a great time. If you run into AG out there on the trail, you know the questions to ask him. And drink a tall one for us here slaving over a hot keyboard while you are gone.

Randy�
I think that you are taking entirely too long in making that sandwich for lunch. No hurry, I am just curious as to what I misunderstood earlier. I have doing a little research on the Fed that I will probably be ready to go with tomorrow or after the Holiday.

Regards,

BR

Chris Powell

(08/31/2001; 20:34:01 MDT - Msg ID: 60628)

Where is gold's Patton

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/876The Mining Web asks: Where is gold's Patton?

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/876

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

BR549

(08/31/2001; 20:35:25 MDT - Msg ID: 60629)

In reference to my expert in the theory of Austrian Economics.

Money supply increasing is a sign of inflation, decreasing the opposite. Deflation is really what is going on. You have gotten me interested in this and I am still investigating. My leanings to date have been towards the Milton Friedman School but my mind is open.

Sorry, my friend, "my bad". I did misinterpret your wise thoughts earlier. I am still one of your biggest fans and I pay attention to each of your posts. You integrity has never been in question.

Blame it on a "bad day" in the neighborhood. Now that Mr. Rodgers is gone, it will be tougher and tougher on all of us.

Warmest regards,

BR549

BR549

(08/31/2001; 21:41:59 MDT - Msg ID: 60630)

So is this inflation or deflation?

-the hoarding of currencies by citizens fearing the worst

-sustained decline in the aggregate level of prices

-retail stores report diminished sales except for some discounters

-prolonged erosion of economic activity reflected in lower earnings

-existing supplies exceeds aggregate demand

-inventories building to record levels

-market prices do not cover expenses and corporate profits are falling

-significant erosion of productivity in manufacturing

-reduction in the long-term pace of capital investment

-decline in technological development

-high unemployment changes in the composition and age of the labor force

-shift away from manufacturing activities to service industries

-rapid proliferation of government regulations

-diversion of capital investment into nonproductive uses

-growing scarcity of certain raw materials

-social and political developments that have reduced work incentives

-various economic shocks such as international monetary and trade problems

-large oil price increases

-manipulation by government in free market price of gold

-no demand for money at zero interest rates as the BOJ has proven exists

-the fear of inflation used as a tool to combat the real problem of deflation

-the escalating exchange of FRN's & other valued assets for physical gold and silver

So which is it?

You conceptual types do not recognize any form of deflation for two reasons-
1. fiat can never be deflated by definition
2. you do not understand what deflation is

Am I wrong?

Black Blade

(08/31/2001; 22:21:48 MDT - Msg ID: 60631)

RE: CB2 and BR549,

Just rolled into Lake Village in Yellowstone NP. Cheers from Yellowstone! Came through the Big Horn Mtns. (Yellowstone East). Had I known that I was going to have some time on my hands I would have tried to contact Sir Pheonix for a tall cold "Golden" one as I went through Cody, WY. If he's reading this maybe we can still do that on Monday afternoon (La Comida, Irma's, or The Gardens perhaps?). Looks like we have a lot to reflect on as we await the market action in Asia and on Tuesday in NY. As I have said, there is just absolutely no positive news whatsoever in the Global economy, and that "Leaked" draft IMF report calling for a devastating "Global Recession" just put another nail in the coffin. I am hearing from several sources that there simply isn't any good news or any reason to get into the market at all. Some people say that they are "on the sidelines" until there's a reason to jump in. Not a one says that they are going bargain hunting. What a change from past days when the mantra was "Buy The Dips!" Gold and Silver looks to be the smart move now along with some defensive plays for portfolio protection (preservation of wealth) while we await the real "fallout" as this Recession deepens. In a word, this Global Economy looks "Grim." Cheers!

- Black Blade

BR549

(08/31/2001; 22:43:54 MDT - Msg ID: 60632)

On vacation with BB

This doesn't have anything to do with GOLD but since we are all on vacation. I was in Cody, WY in a brand new Motor Coach pulling a tow vehicle when I noticed I had a flat. We pulled into the local tire store and expected a "hosing" and a wasted day. Not only did those people fix our tire by replacing it, they got us an adjustment and put us on the road again in record time. What a great place. And what a view of the Grand Titon Mountains in the background.

My Rottweiler who travels as a security protection alarm does not like the buffalos grazing in Yellowstone NP for some reason.

The only thing better than when the mantra was "Buy The Dips!" is "dollar cost averaging" now that we are in a bear market. You don't hear much of that anymore either.

OK, buy physical Gold instead of Dollar cost averaging even if you are on vacation.

Chris Powell

(08/31/2001; 23:06:46 MDT - Msg ID: 60633)

Where is gold's Patton? Bill Murphy answers Mining Web's Tim Wood

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/877Where is gold's Patton? GATA's Bill Murphy
replies to Tim Wood's question at
www.TheMiningWeb.com.

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/877

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Sierra Madre

(08/31/2001; 23:13:18 MDT - Msg ID: 60634)

A video that would be a treasure for years to come....

Would give us two hours of viewing recordings of the principal gurus and analysts pushing the stock junk, back in late '99 and through 2000, that was going to sink the American investor who listened in awed respect to their advice and sank his life's earnings into the trap set for him.

Now THAT would be worth seeing on the History Channel! It would be precious indeed!

But, of course, we will never see it. No way!

Sierra

Black Blade

(08/31/2001; 23:19:09 MDT - Msg ID: 60635)

RE: BR549 - Jackson Hole or Cody?

You might be thinking of Jackson Hole, WY. You can see the Tetons from there. Yellowstone is just north as you go past the Elk Refuge and past Jenny Lake. Cody is at the east of Yellowstone and you see the mountains of Shoshone Nat. Forest to the west. Both places are rather "Touristy" for the flatlanders though. Easy to confuse them. Generally the people in the western states are quite friendly and stop to give a helping hand. Quite different from the East and Left coasts. Refreshing to see that - heck, even I tend to stop and help out stranded motorists - that's something almost unheard of elsewhere. Maybe you can visit this part of the country again sometime. Cody has the Buffalo Bill Museum (?) with the display and artifacts of the Plains Indians (Indigenous Peoples for the politically correct), and a summer long Rodeo if you like that kind of thing. Jackson has a nice saloon called the Silver Dollar. The bar is inlaid with Morgan Silver dollars and the bar stools are saddles. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Note: What would be interesting is to have several regional USAGOLD forum poster "get togethers" and link pictures in an archive from different parts of the USAGOLD universe. Just a thought anyway.

Netking

(08/31/2001; 23:28:23 MDT - Msg ID: 60636)

Silver bugs - US Mint's potential purchase

I heard elsewhere from a respected source that in the WSJ(Washington Wire section):

The US Mint is procrastinating whether to produce ANOTHER 500,000 Buffalo-head silver dollars, since the first batch blew out the door.

What was Not mentioned is the fact that the US Mint will be out of silver, VERY soon, and will fear the day, when that comes around (wouldn't you?) . . .

You gotta pity these govt. officials, tossing & turning in their beds in a cold sweat after reading Sir's Ted Butler & Dave Morgan's analysis & PM articles, they'll be thinking about how much they need to buy over the next two years.

Apparantly these are the coins that sold for $30+ per ounce, so you'd think they'd be pumping them out like crude oil, faster than than they can print new money yes?

It might be suggested that the US Mints needs are small compared with the overall silver market demand & Supply? No Sir!, it won't take much to turn this market, even a 1% purchase of total physical annual supply could be enough to start a chain reaction, the market is tight . . . if the US Mint doesn't buy 'em now, well how much do they want to pay, next year or the year after?

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