USAGOLD Discussion - October 2001

All times are U.S. Mountain Time

site steward
(10/01/2001; 00:23:37 MDT - Msg ID: 62730)
Rocket School Update!
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/RocketSchool/vonBraun.htmlJust received the latest commentary from our ol' friend in the industry, Professor von Braun.

In part, he says:

". . . The fragility of these markets was exposed by this event, a fragility that was already present at the time and continues to be present. Trading was halted, or reduced, orders were difficult to place and even harder to execute and losses were increased.

"One of the more "sobering" aspects of these attacks is the notion that investors really do need to take a look at what they own and describe as assets. Real assets that is, assets that can be turned into cash when and as needed."

". . . What the current gold market does create is the buying opportunity of the century when it comes to physical metal, providing you take delivery.

"What are you buying when you buy gold? You are buying an instrument that does not have a liability attached to it. It is what it is and is not dependant upon consumer spending, government spending, debt, interest payments, CNBC, or anything else for it to retain its inherent wealth...."

"The choices are limited and gold (and to a lesser degree, silver) fit that category. At these price levels one should not be complaining, rather, one should be adopting a buy and hold strategy -- in the true sense of the term."
---
Click the URL given above to access the full article.View Yesterday's Discussion.

Spartacus
(10/01/2001; 01:34:26 MDT - Msg ID: 62731)
(No Subject)
http://www.capitalinsight.co.uk/Home/Article.asp?ArticleFile=270901visiblehand.pdfSean Corrigan, Capital Issues, 27th Sept
Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD
(10/01/2001; 01:47:30 MDT - Msg ID: 62732)
The Classic Collection
http://www.usagold.com/jewelry/gold/buy_18k_index.html

We would like to direct your attention to our new offer of 18-karat designer gold jewelry. We think you'll find The Classic Collection from noted gold jewelry designers, Termine and Winer, something special. There's nothing like jewelry custom-crafted from 18-karat gold, and once you see it next to the more commercial 14-karat variety, there's no going back. If you want to surprise a loved one with something different, this will do the trick. Select from bracelets, earrings, necklaces and pins -- all priced without jewelry store mark-ups (and no sales tax). We went to great lengths to secure this special offer for Christmas this year, but decided to launch early in case some of you had special needs for anniversaries or birthdays. Browse our catalogue and complete your gift-shopping -- from the comfort of your current chair.

Netking
(10/01/2001; 02:01:38 MDT - Msg ID: 62733)
Japanese Banks Set for Bitter Medicine
http://www.iht.com/articles/34203.htmlSnippet:
"The deadline is at hand for banks in Japan to start swallowing the bitter medicine of bad-loan write-offs and portfolio markdowns, and the government is showing no inclination to sugarcoat it with a taxpayer-financed bailout.

As the first half of the Japanese fiscal year ended Sunday, financial institutions here recorded major losses on their books. Mizuho Holdings Inc., the largest Japanese bank, has said it expects to post a loss of $2.2 billion for the half-year. A major rival, Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group Inc., said Friday it expected a loss of $583 million for the half. Other banks expect big hits as well. The finance minister, Heizo Takenaka, said the losses showed that the banks were finally coming to grips with their problems . . . "
------------------------------------------------------------
"Flying pork abounds" with these Japanese banks, when they have to give true disclosure over assets, exposure & contingent liabilities we may really start to see the true picture, at the present we see just a snippet IMO - Netking
Spartacus
(10/01/2001; 04:45:11 MDT - Msg ID: 62734)
(No Subject)
http://www.the-privateer.com/gold6.html....The large and growing danger for financial regulators is that the longer they suppress "paper Gold" as traded on the futures markets, the higher the likelihood for a "two-tiered" Gold price - one for paper claims to Gold - the other for PHYSICAL Gold itself....
Gold Trail Update
(10/01/2001; 04:54:26 MDT - Msg ID: 62735)
The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated
The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.
Simply Me
(10/01/2001; 05:11:09 MDT - Msg ID: 62736)
@Netking
RE: Your Post #62704
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010930/wl/attack_saudi_bases_dc_5.html
"Your post #62636(debka)may have been too soon maybe? . . . . this story through from Reuters (Sunday 1:23 PM ET) with regards to the Saudi's & there on again, off again offers of bases for the U.S.-led coalition..."

So true, Sir Netking. I think the situation in Saudi Arabia is much more complicated than one news report can encompass. There may not have been a palace coup...but there does seem to be two sides warring for control. The old and sick King Fahd sees the need for both the protection and aid of the US and the support of his moneyed noble families (the same wealthy nobles who send money and sons to the terrorist camps) to keep his house in power. He has been walking this fine line for a long time now. Whereas, the Crown Prince Abdullah may be more anxious to rid his country of US presence with the Euro/Oil deal so close he can smell it. A currency without a country is also a currency without a religion.

simply
Simply Me
(10/01/2001; 05:22:03 MDT - Msg ID: 62737)
Welcome back, FOA!
I am truly glad you are back with us and anxious to read any news or views you have to offer.

simply
Rugbug
(10/01/2001; 05:41:34 MDT - Msg ID: 62738)
mining stocks
This is my first post.. I have enjoyed the comments of many of you. Iwould like for any of you to enlighten me more concerning a comment of FOA . I thought that foa implyed that mining stock would not be a good investment as the value of the dollar declines. Someone please enlighten me.
Rugbug
Spartacus
(10/01/2001; 06:06:58 MDT - Msg ID: 62739)
(No Subject)
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/ricchio100101.htmlMonetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, Gold, Bonds, Productivity
Canuck
(10/01/2001; 06:28:20 MDT - Msg ID: 62740)
A must read!!
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/hamilton100101.htmlSeveral wicked numbers and facts.
Canuck
(10/01/2001; 06:41:08 MDT - Msg ID: 62741)
Opinions appreciated
Decision of the Howe trial (discovery) approaches very quickly (Oct.9).

Does anyone have any thoughts or opinions as to how gold stocks will react as we near the date. Have gold stocks discounted 'discovery' and a surprise is not priced in?
Or conversely, is a premium in the price so that if 'discovery' is not allowed we face a severe drop?

My opinion is that 'discovery' is viewed as not happening and a surprise will skyrocket while if disallowed little will happen.

Am I deep in left field?

Canuck.
Belgian
(10/01/2001; 06:46:41 MDT - Msg ID: 62742)
From a chat with Boudewijn Wegerif and answer to Rugbug.
Boudewijn Wegerif : ...The recognition of the organic nature/power of Gold ...!

This sentence is saying sooooh much with so little.
Organic nature of Gold : A simple interpretation = anyone, anywhere, anytime, holding, Physical Gold in his hand as a possession, does feel something mysteriously different (emotion), against any kind of paper holdings ! Do the experiment with a friend you could convince about the yellow in hand.

The extend as to what degree, this mysterious organic nature is *recognized* is a variable. The past 20 years, the "recognition" has strongly declined from a high level (1980).

Why this cryptic approach towards Gold ? Because there is still a core group of Gold-Recognizers, out there, who must have been using this decline in Gold recognissance, to satisfy their lust for more Gold. They never lost this recognition. They probably participated in the paper-chase, but always were very vigilant of never run the risk to loose their physical in possession.

It is this core group of Permanent-Gold-Philes, that do *must* exist, that we have to identify. WHO, has been accumulation during the proces of declining recognition ?
B.W., suggests that a community of 51 million of chineze, outside-China, could be possible new and old "recognizers" ? I suspect that a lot of physical has been accumulated by privates on the descending lines from the Anglogold (AngloAmerican) brotherhood. Superhedger (50%) Anglogold (AU) will never be endangered with its hedging-position ...!! for the simple reason that no one will ever doubt that they will not deliver the physical !!
An inner circle, for the privileged rulers and a perfect mechanism to suffocate and swallow the globe's Ashantis.

It has something Cecil-Rhodes-like, to me.

@ Rugbug : "IF" POG should explode into the thousands of US$, that would mean that something very dramatic (fundamental change), about Gold and Fiat has been taking place. Gold would be recognized as, and officially declared "money", again. Therefore goldmines, become "money-mines" under very strict control. It will be too late to sell your mining stocks and buy Physical at exhuberant valuations. Does this seem a good reason enough (high probability) for you, to (re)consider the choice between mines and physical ? Let us know about your risk/reward-vieuw (math) on it. Thanks.
Rugbug
(10/01/2001; 07:01:49 MDT - Msg ID: 62743)
gold mining stocks
Thanks Belgian for your answer to my question. It did help however what is a person to do with an IRA. Now my Ira is in mine stocks which have increased 40% in value.
Rugbug
Christian
(10/01/2001; 07:46:20 MDT - Msg ID: 62744)
911 + IRA's, 401k's, keogh plans financing the NWO
911 is a message by the controllers of the Euro faction to the Dollar Faction to let the $ go lower by letting gold go higher. Saudi Arabia wants to price its oil with the Euro. This is about the world reserve currency and the process of changing from $'s to Euro's.--....-- Your broker is an agent for the DTC through mandatory SEC regulations mandated by the FED. Your brokerage account is nothing more than ledger accounting. The stocks or bonds in street name d not belong to you. Cede + Co., the owner of DTC (depository trust company) pledges these securities to the FED. By treaty with the UN and in compliance with the Bretton Woods Agreement the FED pledges these stocks and bonds to IMF. The real truth is the securities that you (people) purchase and hold in street name is collateral for the UN through the IMF. We the so stupid people holding stocks or bonds in street name are financing the New World Order with the very stock and bonds held in street name. Today's investors are fools, total fools.....
CoBra(too)
(10/01/2001; 07:57:17 MDT - Msg ID: 62745)
The Massive Explosion of a Fertilizer Plant
near Toulouse, France, killing and maiming many will be subject to a parliamentary probe.
Apparently, Le Figaro has speculated last week that this incident was a terrorist attack and not an accident.

A car bomb killing 30 people in front of thr parliament building in Srinagar, Kashmir, where India and Pakistan
are battling over borders.

Swiss Air on the verge of bankruptcy, weighed down by 17 Billion Swiss Francs in debt. Majority owned Sabena partly grounded, while their 10% stake in Austrian Airlines and several other investments already pledged to creditors.

Only a few headlines of today emphasizing the growing urgency to own physical gold! cb2
CoBra(too)
(10/01/2001; 08:04:30 MDT - Msg ID: 62746)
Russian Analyst on 911 Carnage!
http://www.larouchepub.com/pr/2001/010914kosyakov_lar.htmlMore to come? Scary!

Got Gold? cb2
Belgian
(10/01/2001; 08:09:39 MDT - Msg ID: 62747)
@ Canuck
R. Howe on 9 oct. 01 :

Impossible to speculate on the outcome + the reactions (POG-mines) on the outcome. Why ?

You are still looking at the whole story with a large amount of honesty and sense for justice ! I've lost these vertues as far as my vieuw on the Gold-Story. Impossible to mobilize enough wise, independant, individuals, for having an impact on whatsoever. Sad attitude, isn't it ?

Every little sign of independant (free) pressure from the general public is immediately softened and neutralized.
The moves (behavior) we see in POG or mines, are not the result of natural (market) forces. Everything is fixed by the rulers. Sorry for such a pessimistic vieuw and let us hope, that, I've it completely wrong.

This conclusion doesn't implicate that things will never change ! Oh no Sir, on the contrary ! But not when "we" want it to happen !

If 9 oct. is OK for the rulers to have it booked as an important event...so will it be. Otherwise, it will remain very silent, indeed. It is positive that the suspected, Gold-Accumulation of today, has not been countered with brutal force (yet). We don't know the idendity and strenght (quality-quantity) of the accumulators.

the student
Old Yeller
(10/01/2001; 08:13:42 MDT - Msg ID: 62748)
Latest Contrary Investor
http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm
Familiar themes cast in the new reality of today's markets.Graphs and commentary of debt loads and various sectors' exposure to equity markets does not bode well for a quick recovery.
USAGOLD
(10/01/2001; 08:26:27 MDT - Msg ID: 62749)
Contest. . . . An Announcment
Ahem. . .

Knights and Ladies, members of the Forum.

Chamberlain, must we have these infernal trumpets and clanging of swords. . .all this regalia on a Monday morning. I would like to begin the week quietly.

Please. . .All. . .Just a short announcment and then I would like to depart without alot of nonsense. Please tell the trumpeteers to hold it down. My ears. . .My head!. . . .

Well, that was one of our better contests at this Table Round and I want to thank all who took the time to participate. It seems that there were more FALSE entries than TRUE but I never kept a scorecard. I want to welcome all the new posters. Now that you've broken the ice, we encourage your continued participation. I would also like to thank our regular contributors for making this interesting, educational and fun for all the lurkers and new posters. Judging will be difficult this time around but we'll try to have a decision for you by the weekend.

Let the discussion continue. . . . . .

Randy, Sort the posts, Gather up the papers, Begin the ranking. We have a Contest to judge. Trumpeteers, Take a Break. . . .A Long Break. . . . Oh my. . . . .
tedw
(10/01/2001; 08:29:00 MDT - Msg ID: 62750)
Middle East War
http://www.usagold.com
It appears the die is cast regarding the Saudis.They will not allow the US use of bases to go after a regime that harbors murders, since the murders are Muslim and Arabs. They are, in effect, accomplises to murder.They had no objection to US troops fighing (and dying) to save thier rear ends from Saddam Hussein, the Arab Muslim.

We should not view Saudi Arabia as an ally as they are not.
It appears that we are to them just a good customer,and an infidel at that. Dont look for any help there.

The current situation has the potential to galavanize the entire world of Islam against us. The hijacking of Islam may be a fait accompli.



Henri
(10/01/2001; 08:33:08 MDT - Msg ID: 62751)
BIS's arbitration tribunal to convene
I believe this action was taken to hastily dispatch ineqity issues regarding the privately held shares of BIS prior to the explosion of gold. If they engage the Reg Howe suit, events could outrun them before settlement can be made.
Canuck
(10/01/2001; 08:57:09 MDT - Msg ID: 62752)
@ Belgian
Come on Belgie old buddy, what's your gut feeling?!!

Hey, we are piled up with gold and gold stocks, we are already speculating, yes?

I won't hold you to it, we know what we want to happen but what do you think will happen?
Belgian
(10/01/2001; 09:08:49 MDT - Msg ID: 62753)
@ Rugbug
Sorry Sir, I can't help you decide on the IRA stuff. Why not trying our gentle and reliable, host (CPM), for expert advise. Bravo with your + 40% !
The CoinGuy
(10/01/2001; 09:12:12 MDT - Msg ID: 62754)
Sir John Templeton, "Why The Bear Market isn't Over"
Interview on CNBC to start shortly.

The CoinGuy
White Hills
(10/01/2001; 09:59:10 MDT - Msg ID: 62755)
Middle East War
tedw, I think you are right on with your post about the Saudis. It is from their direction that the last arrow will be launched in the form of EUROS FOR OIL. I will correct you in that SADDAM does not head an Islamic government. It is secular and doesn"t seem to have any problems it can't handle from the the Lunitic right of Islam. White Hills
Chris Powell
(10/01/2001; 10:06:12 MDT - Msg ID: 62756)
Howe vs. BIS
While U.S. District Court in Boston has scheduled a hearing in the Howe case next week, it's unlikely that there will be any action at that time. The judge presumably will listen to argument on the dismissal motions made by the defendants, and then think things over for a while and write a decision on dismissing the suit or continuing with it. My guess is that such a decision will take weeks, at a minimum, if even, theoretically, he could rule from the bench at the end of the hearing. Things seldom happen that way.
Belgian
(10/01/2001; 10:11:23 MDT - Msg ID: 62757)
@ Canuck
Intuition / gutfeeling / tealeaves...not of much help in this over-ruled world. Sorry, mapleleaf...I DON'T KNOW !
Our absolute insignificance as free individuals, is the main (one and only) reason to keep accumulating physical in possession. Stop all risky and unproductive, speculative gambling. These words are just getting more and more significance as we proceed in uncertainty and confusion. You know "the song", don't you do, good man ?
Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD
(10/01/2001; 10:25:16 MDT - Msg ID: 62758)
Hard assets... Easy access! -- Order Victorias online, or call us for our nice prices on Kings (pictured below)
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

sovereigns
Gold Sovereigns Today!

Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

In this global marketplace, a single event on the far side of the world can suddenly and adversely affect the performance-credibility value of the commercial positions within your investment portfolio.

Gold has no employees, no overhead, and no financial statement to balance. It cannot go bankrupt. Gold is wealth itself.It is valued worldwide on the basis of its uniquely reliable form and function -- a steadfast financial commodity which is immune to the contagious collapses to which all financial paper is prone.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

CoBra(too)
(10/01/2001; 11:32:09 MDT - Msg ID: 62759)
- BIS arbitration to convene?
@ Henri - Sir, could you possibly substantiate this message - and @ Chris Powell - Seems like the issues at stake on 109 are too big for any bostonian supreme judge -
as the supremacy of the US$ regime is the delinquent.

... Who would want to be "judged" by history as having delivered the final blow to the current "currency" system and How(e) is it ever possible that some want to know the truth - particularily, after the roof (WTC) has fallen in.

... It wasn't fallin' before, or was it? Though that might prove to be immaterial as now all problems can and will be blamed to terroris'm, fundalis'm and any other schiis'm of the goof up of global capitalis'm.

... AG is already seen as GOP's obscene arbitrageur of the manic bubble horreur - a far cry from a guy, who's supposed to be a follower of Ayn Rand - like contraband.

... And as the world blames Osama Bin Laden for the atrocities, be sure we condemn these together with the Taliban, it may be the time to correct some of the slime, which has tainted high office in the US over the last admin - if that may ever be possible.

- Otherwise, I'll forsee that George Orwell's "1984" is history come to pass!

Viel Spass - cb2

site steward
(10/01/2001; 12:22:11 MDT - Msg ID: 62760)
The nature of the dollar's thin ice...
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/getarticle.pl5?nb20011002b1.htmNEW YORK (Kyodo) The Bank of Japan sold an estimated 3.1 trillion yen in dollar-supporting interventions in the last two weeks, making it the largest round of such interventions on record, according to market analysts.
----

Particularly notable from this article is the comment:

------- "The BOJ has shown fierce determination to prop up the dollar..."--------

Are you willing to entrust the future purchasing power of your paper savings to the "kindness of strangers", so to speak?

Seek the solid independence offered by physical gold.

R.
Netking
(10/01/2001; 12:26:23 MDT - Msg ID: 62761)
Iran Gives Warning to U.S.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/aponline/20011001/aponline105002_000.htmSnippet:
"Iran's Defense Minister warned the United States not to use Iranian airspace for an attack on neighboring Afghanistan, saying Monday that Tehran will react "strongly" if its skies are violated.

"We will strongly defend our airspace and will confront (U.S.) planes if they use our airspace," Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani said at a news conference.

The comment underlined Iran's opposition to a U.S.-led war on terrorism and its refusal to cooperate in an American attack on Afghanistan, whose Taliban rulers shelter Osama bin Laden, the prime suspect in the Sept. 11 terror attacks.

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said last week that Iran does not consider the United States "competent and sincere (enough) to lead any global campaign against terrorism. . . "
-----------------------------------------------------------
Meanwhile on Monday, Riyadh adamant again on no logistical aid for US anti-terror war:

Saudi Arabia, the United States' main ally in the strategic Gulf region, is adamant that it will not provide any logistical aid for a planned US war on terrorism, but it has left the door open for Western fighters to use Saudi airspace.

Although top Saudi officials say that Washington, which maintains a strong military presence in the Gulf, has not requested additional help from Riyadh so far, these officials have clearly asserted the kingdom's territory will not be used as a launch pad for anticipated US strikes against Afghanistan

http://asia.dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/world/article.html?s=asia/headlines/011001/world/afp/Riyadh_adamant_on_no_logistical_aid_for_US_anti-terror_war.html
USAGOLD
(10/01/2001; 12:40:42 MDT - Msg ID: 62762)
Today's Report: New Links at Commentary & Review including Aerial of Bin Laden's Stronghold
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html10/1/01

In Brief: Gold is
retreating marginally
in the early going
but well supported,
according to the
Reuters London
report. The Fed meets
on Tuesday and that
may have some bearing
on gold's direction.
A growing number of
analysts believe
yellow is poised to
challenge the $300
mark. I have included
a good run of links
and snippets below
twhich tell the
current gold story in
copious detail, and
those with an
interest in gold
would be well-served
in catching on some
of the important
developments and
analysis floating
around the media.
I've also updated the
client news section
to the right [see
Commentary & Review
page]. Enjoy. See you
back here tomorrow or
Wednesday. MK . . . .
..MORE. . . .

To read the rest of
today's report, we
inite you to join us
at our private access
COMMENTARY &
REVIEW page. (A
simple, one-time
registration is
required.)

Please go to the link above.
De Ronin
(10/01/2001; 12:52:11 MDT - Msg ID: 62763)
Wrongheaded Policy
Ted D & White Hills,

The US should recognise the touchy, sacred nature of posting US troops in the land of Mecca and Medina. We shouldn't even be asking the Saudis to launch raids from there.

Positioning US troops in Saudi Arabia for security actually does just the opposite.
Galearis
(10/01/2001; 12:53:21 MDT - Msg ID: 62764)
Do I detect a note of disgust?
Rhody on silver from National Lampoon2 (Kitco) today Occasionally the odd bit gets through amidst the death threats and insults....
snip****
Date: Mon Oct 01 2001 14:04
rhody (silver prices) ID#411230:
Copyright � 2001 rhody/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I doubt that we will see even $5 silver on COMEX.
In fact, when there is no above ground stock of
silver bullion, I will predict that the price of
silver will be LOWER than it is now. This is
because the option market ( paper silver ) mechanism
for pricing silver is deeply flawed and manipulative. The futures price reflects the
supply of futures, not the supply of silver.
Since options can be made up out of thin air,
there will always be a surplus of paper silver, and a constant decline in price. Paper silver
is about as real as silver as paper currency is
as real as money. Expect no price change on COMEX
to reflect real silver supply fundamentals.
When silver reaches $3 on comex, you won't be
able to find real silver at any price in the real
world. It will all be gone.
unsnip****

OH! I get it! THAT'S what Trail Guide means by $.50 silver!
But I think Rhody is too, too pesimistic. Silver paper will go way over $5 before it goes to $.50.

Time will tell

On us

all.

G.
site steward
(10/01/2001; 13:56:10 MDT - Msg ID: 62765)
Free silver!
Now that I've got your attention, here's a "housekeeping" item. I'd like to issue this reminder to all first-time posters who have been promised a silver eagle in conjunction with our recent contest period (Sept 24-30).

If you were emboldened to make your first post to the forum during this time, the final NECESSARY step to claim your one ounce US Silver Eagle is to send a note to me (sitemaster@usagold.com) alerting me to the specific post which was your first.

And to make life easiest on our treasury department and our mailing room, please also include/verify your accurate mailing address so that Marie can successfully send you your metal. (Those who have already sent me e-mails are encouraged to follow up with the vital shipping info. Thanks!!)

Thanks again for your new (and continuing) participation!
Tannehill
(10/01/2001; 13:56:47 MDT - Msg ID: 62766)
Forward sales, Deep storage and more
Well no one has said gold is going down to $200/oz.
Occurred to me, that while President Bush is putting together the forces against terrorism, in addition to fighting forces, he may also need some physical. If this could be rounded up and used to push the price of gold down once again, would this not be a positive for the big hedged mining companies of Barrick and Anglogold?

Continue to turn my silver profits into gold.

That's all from Tannehill
goldfool
(10/01/2001; 15:03:39 MDT - Msg ID: 62767)
31 killed in Kashmir car bombing

By QAISER MIRZA, Associated Press Writer

SRINAGAR, India (AP) - Gunmen set off a car bomb outside the state legislature in Indian-ruled Kashmir (news - web sites) and then opened fire inside the building Monday, police said. At least 31 people were killed and 75 wounded in the volatile region's worst violence in two years.

Two assailants rushed into the Jammu-Kashmir assembly building after the explosion and traded fire with security forces for seven hours before both were killed, police said. They said many of the casualties were victims of the car bomb, including the driver.

State lawmakers have been meeting in another building nearby since the legislature was damaged by fire recently, and none was hurt, but seven employees still working in the building that was attacked were killed, police said. Nearly 100 others escaped unharmed.

One of the Islamic militant groups fighting for the independence of Jammu-Kashmir claimed responsibility for the attack, whose victims included nine security officers and several civilians.

The death toll was the highest in a single attack in the state since 1999, when 35 Hindus were massacred by militants during a pilgrimage to a cave they regard as holy.

For 12 years, more than a dozen Muslim militant groups have been fighting for the independence of Jammu-Kashmir, the only state in mostly Hindu India with a Muslim majority. Tens of thousands of people have died.

The Pakistan-based militant group Jaish-e-Mohammed claimed responsibility for the attack in a telephone call to The Associated Press in Srinagar.

While police said the attackers stole a federal telecommunications department vehicle at gunpoint and released its driver shortly before the attack, the claim of responsibility said the assailants rented a cab and loaded it with explosives.

Police said the three attackers drove the vehicle to the assembly building and blew it up at about 2 p.m. The driver was killed, but the other two assailants, dressed in police uniforms, got out and stormed into the building firing guns and throwing hand grenades.

The car bomb blast shattered the windows of a nearby hotel and shops and left a dozen bodies lying in the street outside the legislature.

The attack occurred as lawmakers were leaving their temporary assembly hall nearby, and most of the victims were civilians who had been waiting on sidewalks or in cars as police stopped traffic to let the legislators pass.

The group that claimed responsibility for the attack was launched by Massood Azhar, a Pakistani who was one of three men freed from Indian jails in 1999 in exchange for the return of an Indian plane that had been hijacked to Afghanistan (news - web sites), and its passengers.

India called on Pakistan to take action against Jaish-e-Mohammad.

``At a time when the democratic world has formed a broad and determined coalition against international terrorism, India cannot accept such manifestations of hate and terror from across its borders,'' the External Affairs Ministry said in a statement.

Pakistan's foreign ministry condemned the attack, calling it an act of terrorism that was ``especially reprehensible as it appears to be aimed at maligning the legitimate struggle of the Kashmiri people for their right to self-determination.''

The Himalayan region of Kashmir was divided between India and Pakistan after they gained independence in 1947. Both countries claim it in its entirety, and they have fought two wars over it.

Pakistan supports the Kashmiri militants but denies India's claim that it arms and trains the militants, who include some Afghan fighters loyal to Afghanistan's ruling Taliban militia.

That has raised concerns about what will happen in Kashmir now that the United States is threatening to punish the Taliban unless they hand over Osama bin Laden (news - web sites), the prime suspect in the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

CoBra(too)
(10/01/2001; 15:17:56 MDT - Msg ID: 62768)
Athabasca Tar Sands - @ Black Blade
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_headline.cfm?id=1458 Sir, would this be a viable alternative - at least for
a needed transition period? I've come across a few viable "mining" and refining processes over the years, which may separate, say alumina et al from actual oil.

Just listened to U-Mich. economist Siegel, puking out nonsense like there'll be no tomorrow - at least not for any tough recession, as the american consumer is well equipped to handle the existing debt. What crap, as the massively growing unemployed camp won't have zilch to pay even the interest on their credit cards, not to mention mortgage. Though, who cares about Fannie and Freddie, as long as you still get your Big Mac from Uncle Sammy.

Seems like Mc Teers invitation to buy a new SUV is being followed by some other nations as well: Here's a snip from Daily Reckoning:
"All over the world consumers and investors are being mobilized to fight the campaign against terrorism. They take up their credit cards and portfolios and aim at an enemy they can neither see nor understand.

It's madness, of course. Economies are not really helped by investors who make bad investments, nor by consumers who buy things they can't afford.

But madness needs to run its course."

Of course, says I - and don't try to buy physical gold on a platinum card - cb2




CoBra(too)
(10/01/2001; 15:43:25 MDT - Msg ID: 62769)
Retaliation -
http://www.guardian.co.uk/saturday_review/story/0,3605,559756,00.html ... Where to begin ... that seems to be the question! Or not to be from within, when it'd cause indigestion? Maybe fascist sounding "Homeland" Security will be the solution, at least to the final dilution of America's Liberty, which will turn out a mere illusion in the land of the brave and formerly free.

All told, got gold?
Sardonically yours and pardon me - cb2



Cavan Man
(10/01/2001; 15:49:12 MDT - Msg ID: 62770)
CB(too)
Timing is now or never for certain, "vested interests". As we say here; "time to fish or cut bait". Then there's that "winter" thing you've mentioned. Where's the silver lining?
uponroof
(10/01/2001; 15:57:24 MDT - Msg ID: 62771)
Swiss sales
http://news.ino.com/intraday/?storyid=DJN617974802The Swiss helping to provide POG control at 290.

They are standing in the gap with the cartel's hope another source will appear before their supply runs out. Recall Greenspans plea the week of the terrorist attacks and how the Swiss have provided physical since then.

The quote: "Last week, the SNB said it planned to sell a tranche of 283 tons of gold through September 2002 as part of the program." really means it will be sold in amounts, and at times necessary to prevent exceeding POG 290+-. I suspect a major 'sale' is being engineered to coincide with a coming military attack. We'll see.

Just how are these 'sales' being made? Are the Swiss really in control or have they arranged an open ended selling policy through a third party who is calling for certain amounts at specific times? Maybe I'm too suspicious.... maybe not.

American retaliation is being measured in many ways, for many reasons. Not least of which is economic fallout, which IMHO includes POG. How long will the American people endure the quiet of their guns before they consider that the vengence for their dead is being weighed against protection of fat and irresponsible bankers?

The 'PTB' are earning their money now. This is no cakewalk.
CoBra(too)
(10/01/2001; 16:25:38 MDT - Msg ID: 62772)
@ CM - Where's the Silver Lining? A Good Question!
The real remaining question, my friend. I can't see a silver lining as long as the politics of the industrialized world remains in neo-eco-colonizational extort towards the rest of the world.
As it may well be that I'm in a very black or bleak mood lately - opposite to my own monetary fate and that may be the golden silver lining for us bugs - I feel there's much more at stake than the subjective well being of few, even of the "righteous", as it may become a totally destructive time for humanity in a ever shrinking world.
... And still we're using similar axioms akin to medieval "holy" crusades or better wars to ratify to our own kin the necessity to purge the globe from sin. ... OK, you'll say I debate the Taliban way and I say, never ever, though 3/4 of this world - left out in the globalized cold - may just feel this way. - ... and what would detain you to hate your oppressors, living free and in luxury, while you starve in repaying colonial usury?

As every coin has its two sides - gold coins too - cb2

PS: Sorry for ranting - feeling real low tonite...
auspec
(10/01/2001; 17:46:30 MDT - Msg ID: 62773)
@ Belgian
From the messenger-boyI found this in Cyberspace addressed to you, Sir:

"Auspec, months ago at USAG, Sir Belgian and I both wondered why the Gold mutual funds,with "billions" of dollars worth of Gold share ownership didn't include physical Gold in their holdings."
"I compiled a long list of listed mutual fund addresses & telephone numbers and posted it at USAG, urging readers to write or call these companies, and suggest they(mutual funds) invest in physical Gold.I personally wrote and recieved a very cordial response but quote:"We would have to have a by-laws change.""

"Well, it has finally happened and it is a recent event because it is not noted in the most recent annual report, this is from the link below:
(snip)
"The fund normally invests at least
65% of assets in securities of companies
involved in gold operations. It may also invest
in companies involved with silver and other
precious metals. The fund invests worldwide,
though it generally favors South African and
other foreign markets. ***Up to 10% of assets
may be invested in gold or gold bullion***;(unsnip)"

"Auspec,please relay this to Sir Belgian if you think it would be important to him, Thanks in Advance!"

*** added by beesting for emphisis. END


sector
(10/01/2001; 18:45:19 MDT - Msg ID: 62774)
@uponroof About Bush and the Vengeance Thing
The President has not endeared himself to those who expected him to do what he said during the campaign. I wonder if his definition of "War" matches everyone's expectations?

If by "War" he means a Clintonesque cave stomp complete with video of IR guided missiles flying in the front doors, then I believe the general public reaction will not be pleasant for him.

This is not a "War" to be executed by proxies with American "Advisors". This is much different. In no other military exercise since Pearl Harbor have US citizens been slaughtered in their offices...none in comparably numbers. To everyone on the planet this is our battle. Others have been invited to assist but this is America's fight with the Taliban as the first radical Islamic "State to be ended".

Symbolism is important to Islam. It is why, for centuries, Muslims smashed the cathedrals in Seville, Spain as they repeatedly invaded Europe via the Straights of Gibraltar. The architecture of Seville stands as proof. Each street a kaleidoscopic mixture of mosaic mosques and soaring Christian spires. There was no melting of cultures there and never will be here.

Anything less than a full scale erasure of the Taliban, hill by hill hole by hole should be regarded as a betrayal. Tactics to "smoke them out" must, at any cost or extreme, be effective and advertised. The Islamic World will judge us by the ferocity of our response. They must, in my view, receive the US military response with shock. In the end they should see themselves when they see the fate of Bin Laden's sanctuary.

The innocent dead of New York cry out for vengeance...Does the President hear them?

If he waffles the market will dive.
slingshot
(10/01/2001; 19:08:10 MDT - Msg ID: 62775)
Sector
Oh, I've been working on the railroad,
All the live long day.
Kitty Hawk joins three other aircraft carriers already on station.
The President hears them.
Slingshot
goldquest
(10/01/2001; 19:55:43 MDT - Msg ID: 62776)
Reduced silver stockpiles could boost price
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/011001/n01257341_1.htmlAlso, Brown of Hecla, states that when the price of gold goes up, central banks sell. When it goes down, mines hedge.
R Powell
(10/01/2001; 20:31:55 MDT - Msg ID: 62777)
Goldquest
Thanks for the silver info link!
Rich
Galearis
(10/01/2001; 22:02:33 MDT - Msg ID: 62778)
The WAR to come on Afganistan
Is very likely to be a non-event. If the people behind the US military have half a brain - and there are some really fine minds there - they will have noted all the signs that even the threat of US strikes is causing internal collapse of the Taliban both politically and militarily (what military?).

For those who like the bright lights of explosions, a watch on Iraq is surely going to please much better - for example, when the occasional Iraqi missile site paints a US/allied jet and gets itself pasted for the afront. The US and allies surely doesn't have to do anything physically to punish the Taliban. When that society collapses due to internal strife/panic or local opposition, the war on Afganistan at least will be over. I really feel for the people there for as usual, they will suffer most.

But a Taliban collapse won't necessarily net them Bin Ladin.

But a hot(ter) war COULD tip over the US economy, an economy that presently would not tolerate more strains of uncertainty.

So a lot of the action, so to speak, and as George Bush has oft-stated, will be small scale and unreported. More fun to watch them cap the gold chart.

Just a though and a half...

G.
tedw
(10/01/2001; 22:56:08 MDT - Msg ID: 62779)
Struck by terrorists
http://www.usagold.comNo kidding.

My laptop computer failed to boot up after I tried to start it with a disk in the a: drive. I had to turn it off and it wouldnt boot up again.

I took it to my computer guy, and he said Ive lost all my data due to a Virus. He says a lot of these viruses are originating in the Middle East and Asia.




uponroof
(10/01/2001; 23:09:36 MDT - Msg ID: 62780)
Unholy Alliances
In this society that will not tolerate morals or absolutes we are reduced to 'realative thinking' creating endless debates and enormous confusion. We are not the country we once were to be sure.

At a time when the world awaits our wrath we show our diplomacy through much too much of this 'relative thinking'. We seek the approval of those akin to the murderers through threats of 'collateral damage'. Is their arm twisted approval required to garner global justification? How much weight can be given to this diplomatic coercion?

Colin Powell's actions are surprising to say the least. Forming coalitions with those who do not believe in the core values of our country, who hold in contempt our Judeo-Christian faith, is simply an 'unholy alliance'.

The UN is full of terrorists. They walk the halls and eat lunch with Americans daily in the city they seek to destroy. Coalitions to isolate the 'bad guys' are nothing more than costly political games at a time when resolve is needed.

It was the coalitions, in the Gulf War, that stopped us from finishing the job and killing Sadaam and his network. An unholy alliance with the Arab nations that in fact allowed the terrorist network to live, grow, and kill 5000+ Americans on 911.

The bible is full of references of Israel's reluctance to follow God's instructions in killing the ENTIRE population of a conquered nation. Israel suffered greatly each time. Why was God insisting on total annialation? Was He cruel? Unjust?

Now we seek to continue this practice of unholy alliances.
Bush is seeking to be a politician instead of a warrior. It is the warrior who ends wars, and the politician who starts wars.
MarkeTalk
(10/01/2001; 23:39:29 MDT - Msg ID: 62781)
Musings on predicted upcoming terrorists attacks
http://psispymaster.comDid anyone catch last Thursday night's late night talk radio program with Art Bell (www.artbell.com)? Art's guest was former Major Ed Dames who was a CIA-trained military spy engaged in psychic warfare during the 1980s up until the collapse of the old Soviet Union. He was one of the original team members of "technical remote viewing" as the program was called. The CIA denied the existence of said program and claims today that it no longer exists--which is similar to their assertions about the program for training brainwashed assasins known in the 1970s as MK Ultra. Typical CIA.

Anyway, Ed Dames is now in the private sector and provides his services where needed. On the program he claimed he knew with 100% accuracy that there were four Arab terrorists who were driving a large truck loaded with high explosives down Pacific Coast Highway 1 towards Los Angeles. Their intended target: Diable Canyon Nuclear Power Plant. He gave the particulars on his website with details and all. The website was shut down by someone--most probably the government--within short order. So he established another website (link above) and just gave the intended target's name. It sounded as if the plan was to either park the truck near the power plant and then detonate it or else ram the building thereby causing detonation. Essentially, they were trying to re-create another Chernobyl disaster. Not a pleasant picture if the attack had succeeded.

Question: Did anyone read any news release or hear anything about this story? Were these terrorists interdicted? I can understand why law enforcement would be mum on this subject, lest news of such an event create total panic. Could you imagine the pandemonium if these terrorists had been successful? Stocks would crash (probably towards my target of Dow Jones 5000) and gold would skyrocket. In hindsight, we would consider $400 gold as cheap. In light of these types of news stories, I appeal once again to all my present clients and prospective clients to review their portfolios. If you need to add more gold or if you need to begin a program of accumulation, call me as soon as possible. Bullion prices have already risen $20/oz. since September 11th and coin premiums above spot (for both modern and pre-1933 coinage) continue to rise as well. All we need is one more terrorist event and gold will fly.

GC
MarkeTalk
(10/01/2001; 23:42:47 MDT - Msg ID: 62782)
Musings on predicted upcoming terrorist attacks
http://www.psispymaster.comThis is the correct link to Ed Dames' website.
BR549
(10/02/2001; 00:03:22 MDT - Msg ID: 62783)
A line in the sand. WAR now!


Enough diplomacy! The World Alliance has had enough time to calibrate its cruise missiles to target the cave doors of terrorists.

The time for patience grows thin. It is fairly obvious by now which side is for the good and who is for evil. This WAR knows who its true enemy is. The preventative strike for war is a strong and determined attack. Let's throw everything we've got at them. Why wait? What possible good will procrastination serve. Out friends in the trenches are taking on many casualties. How much worse can it get? Over the top and let's show them out best?

Go General Alan, a full point cut. Nothing less is appeasement! All out victory over gold is ours!

BR549
View Yesterday's Discussion.

Netking
(10/02/2001; 00:15:36 MDT - Msg ID: 62784)
Bin Laden prepares new attacks
http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/breaking_4.htmlSnippet:
Osama Bin Laden is preparing to launch new terrorist attacks over next few weeks, according to information obtained by western intelligence.

Officials said Bin Laden is believed to have ordered his agents in both Europe and the United States to scan targets and prepare spectacular strikes that could resemble those of the Islamic suicide attacks on New York and Washington on Sept. 11.

Bin Laden's plans have alarmed both London and Washington as well as several European capitals, Middle East Newsline reports. Officials said their concern is based on intelligence information obtained over the last two weeks.

"I understand he is preparing for high-impact terrorist attacks in the coming weeks, if he's able to," British Minister for Europe Peter Hain said. "We've got to track him down. We've got to stop him."

British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw agreed. Straw told the British Broadcasting Corp. that Bin Laden is preparing attacks. Western intelligence agencies, he said, do not know Bin Laden's targets.

"There continues to be a risk of them making further attacks," Straw said. "We don't know exactly where. On the one hand none of us wish to raise anxiety in the minds of the public, but we would be complacent and irresponsible not to warn of the risks."

Officials both in London and Washington assess that Bin Laden has hundreds of agents based in Europe and the United States on call for suicide attacks. They said the attacks could be launched even if Bin Laden is killed in a U.S. military campaign against terrorism . . . . "(end snip.) This is logical as he is an intelligent, organised & well funded terrorist(or freedom fighter).

Meanwhile the FBI believes it thwarted a terrorist attack on the nation's tallest building � 110-story sears tower, Chicago five under arrest & the US Prepares for Bio-Terrorism.

PS: One of my TV network's has just minutes ago reported a Russian news item that said it looks like "things are on the move" with regards to the impending action against Bin Laden with film clips of the Kitty Hawk on the move & transport planes landing in the area . . . . guess we'll know soon enough huh with 700+ media in Pakistan!
- Netking
BR549
(10/02/2001; 00:25:24 MDT - Msg ID: 62785)
More terrorism---You had better hurry bin because the good times are just about over for you and your fellow thugs.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,35524,00.html"Blair is prepared announce the strikes will be directed at bin Laden's training camps and Taliban military and financial targets.

Military action will be "proportionate" and "targeted" and everything possible will be done to minimize civilian casualties, the official said. A timetable for the attacks has not been set, he said.

Blair's speech comes as the United States continues a massive military buildup in the region around Afghanistan. The aircraft carrier USS Kitty Hawk left Tokyo on Monday to join other U.S. forces being positioned for possible action.

Blair's speech comes a day after Pakistan's president said he had all but given up on efforts to mediate the standoff. Gen. Pervez Musharraf, suggested that U.S. military action now seemed inevitable."

The economic war continues to confiscate murderers assets and cripple future cowaradice terror plans while the other war of the 21st century is poised for military action. Go deeper into your holes bin laden, there is a pig blanket watiting for your burial.

BR549

Strad Master
(10/02/2001; 01:44:01 MDT - Msg ID: 62786)
Response to Market Talk's most recent posting
Ed Dames and "Remote Viewing"The reason there hasn't been any news articles about Ed Dames predictions regarding the Diablo Canyon Nuclear power plant and terrorism is that no one takes his crackpot predictions seriously except Art Bell who is so open minded that his brains fell out years ago. I have listened to Art Bell (and consequently) Ed Dames for a long time since I sometimes flip him on while I eat my supper. Art's and Ed's fear-mongering is an endless source of amusement for me since virtually nothing they ever say comes to pass. Remember, it was Ed Dames, after all, who described in great detail how his remote viewers saw that the comet Hale-Bopp was really an alien space ship and that it had discharged a canister full of alien biotoxin that supposedly landed in Africa. We are all supposed to be dead of that pandemic disease by now. Hmmm... I guess not. Sadly, his preposterous predictions did directly lead to the "Heaven's Gate" cult suicides since it was from Major Dames on Art Bell's show that those pour souls got the crazy notion that Hale-Bopp was a spaceship and all they had to do was kill themselves to be instantly on their way to alien Utopia. Major Dames and Art backpedaled furiously after that tragic incident and Dames wasn't a guest on Art's show for awhile. He's back, though, and subseqeuently has made a whole variety of other silly predictions - none of which have happened. Unfortunately, people have short memories, so they persist in hanging on Ed Dames' every word as though he actually had a track record of success. No doubt, if his psychic stuff were worth anything they'd have brought Bin Laden's head back on a golden platter by now, but I suspect that the US Army probably will just have to find him the hard way. Anyway, I wouldn't be surprised if it was Ed Dames who hacked his own website to make it appear as if he had someone took him seriously. Personally, I find it very comforting that Ed Dames saw the Diablo Canyon plant being a target for terrorism. Since I live in LA a terrorist hit on that could be a major problem, but since Ed Dames predicted it, I can rest easy since it isn't going to happen. There are plenty of other REAL reasons to own gold, though.
Netking
(10/02/2001; 01:45:26 MDT - Msg ID: 62787)
Saudi Royal Politics Are Quicksand for U.S.
http://www.stratfor.com/home/0109262300.htmThis from 'Strategic Forecasting'(Strator) gaives a timely look on the interesting unfolding Saudi situation including the family power struggles from sources believed reliable - Netking

Snippets:
"King Fahd's long-failing health poses a serious question about succession to the Saudi throne. The eventual passage of power seems clear at the moment. Prince Abdullah is set to become king. But after this, a period of potential uncertainty seems likely to descend as Abdullah, 75, casts about for his own successor. This, in turn, seems likely to cloud the foreign policy of Saudi Arabia, trigger another round of intrigue within the royal family and generate doubt within the population at large, which is already divided by money, tribal ties and rising Islamic fundamentalism.

Stratfor Analysis;
On Aug. 24, King Fahd left Saudi Arabia for Spain. A monarch for 17 years, Fahd's health has worsened since a stroke in 1995. Saudi Defense Minister Prince Sultan reported Sept.15 that the king was in excellent health, and remained in Spain on holiday. . .?

The Saudi government is divided between factions that favor working with the United States -- partly because of economic benefits and the resulting boost to their own power -- and those who oppose engagement with the West. The internal debate reflects a larger split within Saudi society over the extent and context of engagement with the United States and on the impact that engagement has on Saudi domestic and foreign policy. As the United States prepares for war against an Islamic threat, this debate will escalate, further straining Saudi-U.S. relations.

Ultimately the quarrel stands to undermine future military and economic cooperation between the two countries. It also could widen the divide within the royal family and possibly set the stage for a power shift.
The Saudi Succession

King Fahd's long-failing health poses a serious question about succession to the Saudi throne. The eventual passage of power seems clear at the moment. Prince Abdullah is set to become king. But after this, a period of potential uncertainty seems likely to descend as Abdullah, 75, casts about for his own successor. This, in turn, seems likely to cloud the foreign policy of Saudi Arabia, trigger another round of intrigue within the royal family and generate doubt within the population at large, which is already divided by money, tribal ties and rising Islamic fundamentalism.

Analysis

On Aug. 24, King Fahd left Saudi Arabia for Spain. A monarch for 17 years, Fahd's health has worsened since a stroke in 1995. Saudi Defense Minister Prince Sultan reported Sept.15 that the king was in excellent health, and remained in Spain on holiday."

* " . . . refusal to allow the United States use of the Prince Sultan Air Base for retaliatory strikes against any Muslim nation came as an apparent surprise to Washington. Only days before, Air Force Lt. Gen. Charles Walk, commander of the U.S. Central Command's air operations, moved his home base from South Carolina to Saudi Arabia.

At first glance the refusal appears a reversal of Saudi government policy, but another explanation is more likely: It may have been the result of compromise between pro-U.S. and anti-U.S. factions in Riyadh. After rejecting Washington's request, the government moved quickly to sever ties with the Taliban -- appeasing the United States. The government, however, was likely less concerned with appeasement than maintaining a crucial political balance within the royal family and Saudi society.

The House of Saud achieves social harmony -- solidifying its position as the kingdom's ruling family -- by maintaining a complex system of checks and balances. This system is easily upset by change and is therefore conservative and highly resistant to outside interference.

The royal family commands the allegiance of various other tribes that populate the Arabian Peninsula through a system of patronage and social spending. But within the family itself, the struggle for power is a game of constantly shifting alliances and intrigues that impact domestic and foreign policy. . . ."
------------------------------------------------------------
You boys would like Euro's for oil huh? - Netking
Belgian
(10/02/2001; 02:07:10 MDT - Msg ID: 62788)
@ Auspec @ Upon the roof
Auspec # 62773: Thanks for the pony express.
The call for Gold-Fund-Activation, was of course ment for the WGC, who responded that many Funds around the globe aren't allowed to invest/accumulate, physical Gold ! And that was it. No further explanations as to "why" it isn't permitted or no further indications of how this could be changed. What better evidence "again" that these 140.000 tonnes of aboveground Gold (the Valuation), are so barbaricly important and fragile ! Another aspect of the totally un-logic consideration of Gold. And than we zap to the 1.000 tonnes of Swiss Gold, shining upon the roof (# 62773). The ultimate swing-stash ! What interest do these Swiss have in selling their 1.300 tonnes of Gold at rock-bottom prices ? 1.300 tonnes, aqcuired (accumulated) over how much time and at what average price ? And again for the 1.300 and one-th, time : who is buying ?

The sale (?) (exchange) of these WA 400 tonnes a year, must have a completely other reason, than the ones they are trying to make us belief. I lack the intelligence to find out what might be the real purpose. But not stupid enough to sell, no one's liability (in full possession) for quasi nothing.

Let us couple the immobile Gold-Valuation on the global tendency for declining interest rates (IR)...yes even zero rates. Free paper money, as much as you desire, to do what ? An universe of paper fiat with a neglectable rent-price, available in excessive amounts, and usable for setting up, new paper generators. And still, nobody seems to jump on it and conquers the world. What does that mean ?
Entrepeneurship and consumption is saturated and immobilized (suffocated) by Debt. A high risk of complete standstill. And yet the Washington Agreers, do continue to sell (supposedly) that one and only debt-less yellow stuff.
Where is the minimum of logic in all this ? It is a complete "absurd" situation to me. And it is a global phenomina, now !

All our suppositions on Gold-sales, don't make any sense anymore. There is a vital missing link. Even if Gold-Reserves are used to bridge a very difficult (catastrophic) period (financial collapse)...you do realise you can only sell it once and fini...gone ! My kind of action would be of letting IR, rise and allow massive defaults, with much more chances for, "restart", afterwards.

Or is it EMU's devillish (TG's) plan to use Gold as the terminator and savior ? There must be a *PLAN* for and with Gold. Can't find any other explanation for so much absurdness in action. Or is there something completely wrong with me (not excluded)?

FOA: Are there differences in thoughts, amongst your associates ? Looking forward, hearing from you soon. Many thanks.

Netking
(10/02/2001; 02:44:40 MDT - Msg ID: 62789)
Weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East
http://cns.miis.edu/research/wmdme/map.htmAn interesting inventory (per above link) of just how much "dry powder" is lurking in the M.E.

And a brief summary of what assets the U.S. has now assembled:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/americas/newsid_1557000/1557140.stm
Spartacus
(10/02/2001; 03:49:33 MDT - Msg ID: 62790)
Take two Aspirin
http://www.capitalinsight.co.uk/Home/Article.asp?ArticleFile=011001aspirin.pdf
....US M3 has risen more in the last twelve months than it managed in the first 197 years of the Republic, from the Declaration of Independence to the break up of Bretton Woods....
BR549
(10/02/2001; 03:54:12 MDT - Msg ID: 62791)
Hey!!! vin Laden my credit card doesn't work anymore! How am I supposed to pay for my flight school training? What's going on?
http://www.cnn.com/2001/US/10/01/inv.frozen.assets/index.html"We've frozen 30 al Qaeda accounts in the United States and 20 overseas, and we're just beginning," Bush said, referencing the network led by suspected terrorist mastermind Osama bin Laden, branded the "prime suspect" in the September 11 attacks.

- As much as $100,000 was wired in the past year from Pakistan to Mohamed Atta, a suspected leader of the terrorist hijackings, law enforcement sources said. The sources said the wire transfers from Pakistan were sent to Atta through two banks in Florida. Then, Atta would obtain money orders -- a few thousand dollars at a time -- to distribute to others involved in the plot in the months before the hijackings. "

How are these terrorists supposed to do their jobs done without adequate financing? How about some economic rights for these terrorists?

BR549



Spartacus
(10/02/2001; 04:10:00 MDT - Msg ID: 62792)
Intervention
http://www.mises.com/fullarticle.asp?control=794&month=37&title=In+Defense+of+Public+Intellectuals&id=37
....We should never tire in our mission to point out that there is an alternative to the Politically Correctly Left and the Militarized Right: that there is freedom itself, the genuine article, and a tradition of thought in defense of freedom unmatched by any other in its rigor and dedication. This ideal will continue to rise from the ashes, again and again, to point the way forward to peace, prosperity, and liberty.....
Belgian
(10/02/2001; 05:14:39 MDT - Msg ID: 62793)
@ Netking
Yep, Sir...keep the focus on Saudi Arabia : Provider of 25% of global crude and reserves for X-years !

What will most probably happen : More muslims want re-distribution of the OPEC oil-wealth. That's the underlying motive for possible palace-revolutions, from inside or outside induced. A very important bin Laden (side) effect.
It is, what europeans (falsely - !!!) call, democratisation. How long will POO (21$) remain at the service of the global economy and how long will it take before crude-revenues, will be more democratisized for non terrorizing ME-muslims ?

How will the anti-terror-coalition-crusade act on : IRA /ETA/Yasser Arafat/Corsica/Algeria/Chechnya/Kashmir...?
Uncle Sam, suddenly gets a lot of requests to come over and eradicate all terror-nests on the globe. If the cost of these operations, have to be compensated again with cheap/cheaper oil....we are back to the origins of Desert storm. Is there a bright sight on this live (Monty Python)
Spartacus
(10/02/2001; 06:08:54 MDT - Msg ID: 62794)
Monetary Rules
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/1998/199802272.htm
Remarks by Governor Edward M. Gramlich
The Samuelson Lecture, before the 24th Annual Conference of the Eastern Economic Association, New York, New York
February 27, 1998

�..The question of whether the Federal Reserve Board should use rules in the conduct of monetary policy is almost as old as the Fed itself. For a brief time in the Fed's history it used a policy-making rule based on monetary aggregates, and today many are suggesting that it use a rule based on the federal funds rate. Other countries have used policy-making rules that are based on explicit inflation targets. While at this moment the Fed is an institution where members vote on monetary policy using their own best judgment, the issues illustrated in discussing the question of rules are still interesting and controversial�.
Grubstaker
(10/02/2001; 06:14:06 MDT - Msg ID: 62795)
For those who have eyes to see and ears to hear..
http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2001/2834chervonetz.htmlAnyone who has seriously considered the FOA/ANOTHER scenario will find "the rest of the story" here. I believe this to be a major source for their discourses. I am not a subscriber to this newsletter nor am I affiliated with this organization in any way. It is time for the veil to be lifted. The paper game is over.
Usul
(10/02/2001; 06:55:14 MDT - Msg ID: 62796)
U.S. Civil War, Effect on Gold
http://knottingley.org/history/civilwar/war_strategies.htmThe war, like all wars, called for great sums of money to pay troops and to supply them with equipment...

As in the South, though to a much lesser degree, paper money dropped in value in relation to gold, and inflation rose sharply.
Christian
(10/02/2001; 07:15:38 MDT - Msg ID: 62797)
99% of all stocks and bonds are in street name-
Stocks and Bonds held in street name DO NOT BELONG to the people who paid for them. Money flows through the stock market rather then being in it. It simply becomes someone else's working capital. All stocks, bonds, home mortgages, etc are property of the FED. Debt cannot repay debt in the aggregate. Only earnings can retire debt. Our money system represents debt that has and will continue to be monetized. The interest cost on this debt is rapidly annihilating the middle class and delivering the nation into third world status. The arrival of raw materials times price man debited, nature credited is not allowed to deliver earnings because commodity prices are manipulated by the means of paper commodity trading. Paper gold issued through the London Bullion Market Association has encombered all physical gold in ground and above ground supplies. That is why U.S. gold reserves went from Reserves to Custodial to Deep Storage. Money is digital information. The current monetary system is being turned into an instrument of surveillance and control by our government. Homeguard security at work. How long will the American people endure the comming military battle before they consider Cede+Co is shorting their holdings under street name to protect the holdings of irresponsible bankers that make up the FED. $45 million of that just went to Bin Laden+ Co. Bin Laden is, was has been a CIA "asset" The CIA (Can't Identify Anything) when it comes to looking for a bleeding lost elephant in the snow. Banksters love war because they can loan money created out of nothing to both sides. This has been going on since the beggining of time, why should it change now or in the future.-- Anyone have any ideas where I can place the money still left from my 401k which is now a 001k savings account??
Usul
(10/02/2001; 07:26:19 MDT - Msg ID: 62798)
What is paper money?
Is it money made of paper? Or just paper and ink?
Take a look- what your piece of paper, or even plastic film may claim to be is a "note", or a "promise to pay". Nowadays, no paper currency is linked to gold. Your banker, with a straight face, will give you in exchange for your paper money, more of the same, and consider the promise met. A bank note costs a tiny amount to make, compared with what it promises to pay, yet it can be exchanged for goods or services worth a great deal more than its cost. It might be money, as described in the dictionary, but it is a different kind of money to gold money. Few people stop to consider by what mechanism that paper leverages its exchange for goods and services, or what might possibly go wrong with that mechanism.
Cavan Man
(10/02/2001; 07:38:49 MDT - Msg ID: 62799)
Thanks Strad Master
RE: Bell & Dames et alKooks, charlatans and nit wittery; only in a world so far removed from The One True God can thoughts such as these take root in weak minds and even weaker spirits.
Usul
(10/02/2001; 07:51:31 MDT - Msg ID: 62800)
Bankrolling the world into chaos
http://www.users.globalnet.co.uk/~bamr1/w2a.htmNot only are paper promises to pay leveraged on top of their basic cost of production.

The banks multiply the paper promises to pay by the process of fractional reserve banking, whereby loans are created on top of a small fraction of actual deposits.

"a staggering 97% of the entire UK money stock consists of bank credit, created by the action of lending to borrowers"

"most money today consists simply of numbers - credit relayed between bank accounts via computer systems, and created almost out of thin air every time a loan is made"

How much leverage is in the power of bank numbers to be exchanged for goods and services, compared with their cost of production?
Cavan Man
(10/02/2001; 07:59:30 MDT - Msg ID: 62801)
US Equities
(Reality Check)"Worldwide semiconductor sales dropped 42% in August from a year earlier......... The semiconductor sector's woes typify a widespread phenomenom in the US stock market: Earnings are falling faster than share prices. The result is that even though stock prices have dropped substantially, valuations remain very high. A YEAR AGO THE S & P 500 INDEX WAS SELLING FOR JUST UNDER 29 TIMES ITS TRAILING 12 MONTH EARNINGS. SINCE THEN, THE INDEX HAS TUMBLED MORE THAN 27%...NOW THE S&P 500'S RATIO IS A POINT HIGHER."

Eric Fry reporting at Bill Bonner's DR.
Galearis
(10/02/2001; 08:06:17 MDT - Msg ID: 62802)
@ Netking re your #62784
But the real "news" nugget was at the end of the pieceIf anything geopolitically positive comes from this so-called war it may just be this:

snip****
On Tuesday, the Pentagon ordered 2,000 more reservists to duty. Later, the House approved a $343 billion defense bill that diverted $400 million in funds from missile defense to counterterrorism efforts. In all, $6 billion has been allocated for counterterrorism.
unsnip****

Like the arms race in battleships prior to WW2, wherein the US was constructing these ships for alleged world dominance and (even) creating tensions with Great Britain, the missile defense spending re-initiated by Bush is similarly devisive vis-a-vis the US and Europe. (The economies through the '30s were faltering too, of course.) Now it seems that the priorities are a little more realistic.

During the '30s Great Britain launched its battleship building spree for what they considered at the time a future war against the US.

Assuming the news item is anywhere near accurate, of course.

G.


RS
(10/02/2001; 08:29:00 MDT - Msg ID: 62803)
Fiat currency combined with fractional reserve banking...
Weapons of mass destruction?

----------------------------------------------------
The "Federal" Open Market Committee meeting today...
CNBC is still debating whether we "are already in a reccession".
Oh you people...

Usul
(10/02/2001; 08:43:59 MDT - Msg ID: 62804)
Derivatives: Leverage on top of Leverage
http://www.usagold.com/GreenspanDerivatives.htmlMr. Greenspan: a Proponent for Derivatives (link)
"It is our view that derivatives have come to have too much impact on our stock market. We suspect that huge amounts of hidden leverage exist through derivative speculations"

When LTCM went belly-up in 1998, it needed a bail-out to the tune of $3.625 billion, caused by a wrong turn against its derivative leverage, which at the end of 1997 amounted to $129 billion of "assets" leveraged 28 times against $4.7 billion of "capital". Had they not been bailed out, the cross-defaults might have threatened systemic collapse.

But what of the leverage of bank credit against deposits? And underneath, the leverage of fiat currency over its cost of production?

In today's financial environment, how do we know to what extent central control (e.g. of key interest rates) is still effective, when much of the "assets" have been created by leverage outside of the central source?
Mr Gresham
(10/02/2001; 10:09:30 MDT - Msg ID: 62805)
Usul
Well, you're finally bringing back to us that expression that Americans are about to learn, most of them for the first time in their lives: Fractional Reserve. Well spoken by you, and helping us to develop the many gentle ways we must learn to one day explain their predicament to them.

As we here have gone on and learned about certain derivatives (another new word for them) in the financial markets, we then backtrack and realize that the "money" we've all been passing around is but another derivative.

This is one of the central realizations I had when I chose my handle and entered this forum two years ago. At that time, I believed that one day (soon, of course ;) ) we would be seeing a 100-dollar bill exchanging for 85 one-dollar bills, or thereabouts. And a twenty only getting about 19 ones in return. As people got poorer, and the Fed flooded the country with 100-dollar bills (as they did for Y2k), a basic supply/demand discrepancy would erase the characteristic of fungibility among currency denominations that we now take for granted.

I suppose that a corollary to G's Law would be that the "bad" money TRIES to drive out the "good", or more usable and acceptable, money, whether fiat or PM, but it winds up just getting discounted more heavily as all "moneys" trade side-by-side in an inflationary depression.
Usul
(10/02/2001; 10:46:00 MDT - Msg ID: 62806)
Global Economy
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/011002/sp5942_6.htmlConsumers gloomier, airlines suffer as Fed meets

"France and Sweden reported declining consumer confidence and the European Commission announced euro zone economic sentiment was at its lowest in nearly four years, based on data gathered mostly before the September 11 attacks suggesting the worst is yet to come"
Usul
(10/02/2001; 10:47:09 MDT - Msg ID: 62807)
Business confidence worse than BOJ report shows
http://home.kyodo.co.jp/all/display.jsp?an=20011002089"Heizo Takenaka, state minister in charge of economic and fiscal policy, said Tuesday that corporate confidence in Japan may be even worse than that shown in the Bank of Japan's latest survey because of the impact of the terrorist attacks in the United States..."
Usul
(10/02/2001; 10:48:26 MDT - Msg ID: 62808)
Corporate collapses leading to worker disillusionment
http://www.abc.net.au/news/business/2001/10/item20011002163009_1.htm"High profile corporate collapses are beginning to take their toll on worker confidence.

Training and development company Leadership Management Australia, says its latest survey of managers and workers from more than 400 businesses, shows rising levels of dissatisfaction and disillusionment..."
Usul
(10/02/2001; 10:49:38 MDT - Msg ID: 62809)
French consumer confidence tumbles
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1574000/1574987.stm"Consumer confidence in France has fallen to its lowest level since late 1998, according to a government index which dropped for the seventh time this year...

The September survey did not fully reflect the impact of the attacks on the United States..."
Usul
(10/02/2001; 10:51:30 MDT - Msg ID: 62810)
Consumer credit 'slow to recover'
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1574000/1574934.stm"Fears are growing that the UK could be in for a more prolonged dip in consumer confidence than initially thought, following the terror attacks on the United States."

"In the first concrete sign that consumers have reined back significantly on their spending, financial information company Experian has reported a slowdown in consumer credit applications"
Usul
(10/02/2001; 10:54:51 MDT - Msg ID: 62811)
White House's Hubbard-Attacks boost recession chances
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/011002/n02308763_1.html"White House economic adviser Glenn Hubbard said on Tuesday the Sept. 11 attacks have ``significantly'' increased the likelihood that the U.S. economy, already shaky before the deadly incidents, is in a recession..."

"One of the keys to the economic recovery is the confidence of businesses and consumers, which has been shaken in the wake of the attacks, he said..."
Usul
(10/02/2001; 10:59:07 MDT - Msg ID: 62812)
Jitters May Dampen Cut Impact on Stocks
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/011002/business_markets_stocks_outlook_dc_2.html..."GLOOM ON WALL STREET"

"Fear still reigns on Wall Street. Traders worry about U.S. reprisals to the terror attacks, a weakening economy and more companies warning of profit shortfalls.

``Those three issues overshadow the positive effects of the continued Fed rate cutting,'' said Erik Gustafson, portfolio manager at Stein Roe & Farnham, which oversees $22 billion. ``We have a crisis in confidence right now, and until that confidence is rebuilt, until we see a lower level of fear, the markets are going to continue to struggle.''..."
nickel62
(10/02/2001; 10:59:18 MDT - Msg ID: 62813)
The following is powerful stuff..not sure what to say about his insights but they ring true to me..
U.S. MARKETS


All the terrorist attacks in the world and all the wars are not going to cover up what the elitists have done. They have pulled the biggest stock scam in history. They have created the biggest financial bubbles in history. Who are they? They are Alan Greenspan and the Fed, the FOMC, the major investment banks and brokerage houses, the media, particularly CNBC, our government, full of kept disgraces to humanity, and the secret organizations to which they all belong. US markets have now lost over $10 trillion and we just began stage 2 of a 3-stage collapse. The markets were deliberately taken up to enrich the elitists�, giving them even more power and we can promise you they are short on the way down. The goal is the financial rape of the American public, depression and war and from this they can synthesize a New World Order. The creation of a giant gambling casino was created to draw the suckers, naive Americans, into what they thought was a never-ending game called, prosperity. Once they had 55% of the public hooked they pulled the rug from beneath their feet and forced the market to collapse. The next step was the terrorist incident that was to cover the collapse of the market. We began writing about this possibility in April of 2000, when we predicted the collapse of world stock markets. There are no coincidences. The elitists have used the same formula in many ways to keep mankind subjected for the past 1,000 years. Never do you hear anything or see anything in the US media regarding the elitists� manipulation of the gold market. The bozos paraded across CNBC everyday and quoted in press and financial publications won't even admit we are in a bear market. They are too busy appealing to the patriotism of decent Americans so they can relieve them of more of their assets and then send their children off to make-believe wars to have them slaughtered and returned home in body bags. Americans, you are being deceived by your leadership in government and business. Two years from now we'll be in a contrived depression with several wars raging simultaneously. You will be stripped of your constitutional rights and the new Homeguard will strip you of your weapons. Americans just keep doing what you are doing and we'll guarantee your slavery. You just don't get it. How can 98.2% of market experts be so wrong about the market? This is not a coincidence. Remember the market had been going down for 16 months and a few experts discovered there was anything really wrong. You have been had, you are in denial and you are demoralized. You are frozen in the headlights. Get out of the market while you still have some assets left. If you are not a trader in commodities or indexes or in precious metals stocks, get out, losses or no losses. God is not going to keep our freedom for us; we have to defend it and our assets and families ourselves. The market itself is nowhere near capitulation. The investment public, who should have never been in the market in the first place, because it wasn't suitable, has now been distracted by the patriotic show. We'll stick together and be good Americans while Wall Street walks off with our assets. The mainline entertainers put on their shows and likewise our politicians and the investors and the public are lulled into a stupor. The elitists know exactly what you are going to do before you do it. You are going into a cocoon disturbed with your stock market losses and stop consuming. As you get laid off you won't be able to pay your mortgage and debts and two of the last three bubbles will be broken. The real estate and debt bubbles. You are very predictable. Your leaders know what you'll do and that is why they don't want to be blamed for your stock market losses. They are going to save you from those mad Muslim fundamentalists. These are the same people who are saving you from higher gold prices by selling 87% of America's gold reserves, while you slept. You had best be vigilant or you'll lose everything, even perhaps your life.

The US is busy lining up a successor to the Taliban to rule Afghanistan. He is Afghanistan's former king, Mohammad Zahir Shah, who has met with the UN in Rome. He is 87 and has lived in Rome since his ouster in 1973.

The New York Mercantile Exchange's $240 million in gold and silver still hasn't been removed from the remains of the WTC. It consists of 379,036 ounces of gold in 100-ounce bars worth $100 million and $140 million in silver bars.

Tourist spending in Florida has dropped $20 million a day or by 1/3rd since the NYC tragedy. At that rate the $50 billion a year industry could drop to $33 billion if tourism continues at this level. It would be devastating for the state if that were to happen, especially in the Miami and Orlando areas.

A supposed bipartisan congressionally mandated group headed by former philanderer ex-Senator Gary Hart and Warren Rudman, have had their recommendations included in a bill introduced by Rep. Mac Thornberry (R-Tx), for the creation of a National Homeland Security Agency, to be run by Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge. The Agency would consolidate FEMA, Federal Emergency Management Agency, with the Border Patrol now in the Department of Justice, the Customs Service now in the Treasury Department and the Coast Guard now in the Transportation Department. When legislation was originally introduced it got nowhere, but now since the tragedy the administration is attempting, during a period of fear and grief, to ramrod the legislation through. Let's see how many more of our Constitutional rights will be taken from us.

The pullback in the American economy will be of mega proportions. Expansion by business is at a total standstill and we don't need to remind you of the massive cutbacks in production and the unprecedented layoffs, both of which have only begun, consumers are gradually pulling back and returning to more normal shopping habits and they are being very cautious about big ticket purchases, like cars, homes and entertainment. Entertainers and sports entertainers are finally going to be paid what they are worth that is 1/10th what they now command in income. They'll all play to many empty seats. The business cutback hasn't really gotten underway. Yes, they began cutting a year ago, but consumers didn't. When consumers cut back there will be a second wave of cuts by businesses and industry. Imports will fall off a cliff. The emerging world is about ready to head back to the caves. Widespread damage to the economy will come in this second wave as consumers cut travel, effecting airlines and aircraft makers, hotels, convention centers, gambling, computer manufacturers and car dealers. Used car auctions are getting hit with waves of used cars from owners� turn-ins and leased cars and trucks. The value of used vehicles has already dropped 20-30%. This effects new auto sales, steel, electronics and farm equipment. The economy is shrinking and will shrink much more as the real estate, debt and derivative bubbles pop. You haven't seen anything yet. The second wave will shock you and the third wave will paralyze you. We previously stated recovery could begin at the earliest in early 2003, but since the shock of the WTC tragedy and eminent protracted war, that has changed and we are looking for a flattening of the depression in 2004 or 2005. Almost all the forecasters, including the FED and Alan Greenspan, are a year or more behind the curve. Their foresight is myopic and that is because it's politically correct. If they step out of lock step with the elitists they lose their jobs. That's why you get lied to all the time. It's like the police in Hamburg in1940. At the war crimes trials the Chief of Police of Hamburg was asked why he rounded up all the anti-Nazi dissidents and Jews and shipped them to camps, even though he hated Hitler. He replied I was obeying the law and keeping law and order. I didn't want to lose my job. This is the same mentality that persists in America today. The only difference, in reference to Germany, is today no one has yet taken away our guns. Thus, the weak and passive go right along with the elitist program hoping they will be the last victims devoured by the alligators. Uncertainty has entered our lexicon. Fear has been reinstalled. The non-challenge is gone. Debts are going to be liquidated and the credit cards torn up. The forecasters can no longer tell you which way the economy and life are headed, because they are out of touch with reality. That means investments and consumption delayed or gone forever. The elitists have deliberately plunged us into a coming depression so they can convince us that we want one-world government while we are on our knees. That is what this is all about, Wake up America. If you don't you'll wake up to the smell of napalm in the morning. This is the final push by the elitists. They are going for it all and if we don't stop them our children and generations beyond will live in bondage. No one, or any business is immune. We are all going to feel the sting of going without. The handwriting is on the wall; all you have to do is read it.

America will only be able to recover when there is a massive change in psychology. We say this in a mode and atmosphere where we haven't even approached, our depth of difficulties as yet. Yet, if you want an answer that is it. There are the pundits � experts, who say from a long-term standpoint, right now stocks are undervalued. Let's get something straight that we learned in 42 years in the markets, long-term is 8:00 a.m. tomorrow morning. There is no such thing as long-term in investing and what is happening in your life. Long-term is not a saleable product. Those in the investment community and government say it over and over again, because they don't have any answers. It is a copout. It relates ignorance. This is why those viewers of CNBC and Bloomberg are buried in their stocks. This is why few real experts could foresee what was going to the market and the economy. These people are not stupid. They just don't understand that things are not the way they seem to be because behind the scenes there are those who are manipulating the future and the present. They are afraid to embrace the truth because they don't see it or they do and they want to remain employed. They are not about to tell you foreigners; investment houses, brokerage firms, mutual funds and money managers were the sellers in the market after the tragedy. How can they when they are asking you to be patriotic and buy. $5.9 billion was removed from mutual funds in the three days prior to the tragedy and $66 billion went into money market funds. The market was about to collapse and that is why the terrorists came in such a rush to complete their missions. The only real opportunities in the stock market now are gold shares, money market funds that don't use derivatives and very special situations, and it has been that way for 17 months. Thus far, unfortunately, we have been right, let's hope it stays that way.

An aspect of unemployment seldom discussed is underemployment. Executives are taking pay cuts of 10 to 30%. Companies furloughed workers for as long as six months with partial pay and are mandating two weeks of unpaid vacations for everyone else. Some firms are having workers stay home on Friday's three weeks a month. All these moves are to forestall further job cuts and retain workers that were expensive to recruit and train. Companies have a great deal of money invested in their employees. These mechanisms to avoid layoffs are expensive because as business and profits drop overhead doesn't drop a commensurate amount. This approach skews unemployment figures making them unreliable and a distortion. Workers by and large have embraced the changes fearing the alternative is much worse. Unfortunately, these moves do help, but in the final analysis the economy will be purged with great difficulty.

We believe Osama bin Laden and other terrorists were behind the recent terrorist attacks, but we also believe Iraq played a prominent, if not, controlling role. This would include Lebanese Imad Mughniyeh, head of special overseas operations for Hizbullah and Egyptian Doctor Aymean al Zawahiri, a senior member of Al-Qaeda and a possible successor to Mr. bin Laden. Mughniyeh is the world's most wanted outlaw and is probably in Egypt. He is bin Laden's chief representative. These two men were financed and received logistical support from Iraqi Intelligence Service (SSO). It is believed Mughniyeh is a psychopath and for worse than bin Laden. He recently attempted to blow up an El Al Airliner at the Tel Aviv Airport using a Lebanese terrorist posing as a Brit. In 1984 Mughniyeh kidnapped William Buckley, head of the CIA station in Beirut who he tortured and murdered. The CIA has a $2 million price on his head.

Most equity funds are now sitting on more capital losses than gains. This presents a potentially favorable situation for those who buy funds because of tax losses carried forward to be used against any future capital gains. The big question is will we have reached the bottom by the end of 2002?

As the economy spirals downward the number of credit card accounts overdue at least 30-days on 9/21/01 rose to 3.93% from 2.99% in the quarter, and 2.99% for the same period last year. The previous high was in 1996 when it hit 3.72%. The tax rebates and home refinancing haven't made a dent in debt. The consumer delinquency ratio for closed-end consumer loans rose to 2.51% from 2.4% in the first quarter. It was 2.30% in the same quarter of 2000.

The US is getting full cooperation from Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, two former Soviet republics. The Taliban rulers of Afghanistan have tried to spur militant uprisings in both neighboring states.

As we reported six years ago, in 1995 Uzbekistan and the US signed an agreement to conduct joint military exercises. This was done to outflank Russian interest in the area. US Army Commandos advised the country's 80,000-strong armed forces. In 1999, 16 Uzbek officers from the 65th Special Operations Battalion visited Fort Campbell, KY and Fort Bragg, NC, home of US Army Special Operations Command. The US will deploy small groups into Afghanistan fighting head to head and will do so until they catch up with Mr. bin Laden. Most of the US operations will be at night.

The sales job is underway to sell Americans the need for a new Homeland Security cabinet department. They must be made to accept the merging of a number of agencies into a consolidated agency. The problem is each agency has little in common with the other. All the editorialization we have seen thus far is very negative concerning existing agencies and their operations.

House Democratic leader Richard Gephardt (D-MO) says congress should quickly move to open debate on security measures, such as a national ID card. The card would have a photo, thumbprint digitized and embedded in the ID card. 3rd way Tony Blair of Britain has already approved ID cards for Britain., and they have also been approved in Canada. A big propaganda campaign is afloat in the UK to get citizens to accept the card, which will give the federal government total control over them. That is what they are up to here. The last major government with ID cards was Nazi Germany, where lack of proper identity cards resulted in immediate arrest. If passed, you will need this card for all life functions and if you are critical of the government, as we are, your card will be voided and you won't be able to subsist. This is what the government is after with an ID card. It will lead to total suppression of the population. This card means enslavement and 2/3's of Americans polled think it is fine. Government does something like this after every major negative event. The mind control apparatus goes into motion at their weakest possible moments.

nickel62
(10/02/2001; 11:07:28 MDT - Msg ID: 62814)
This piece and the prior post are from "Chapman's International Forcaster"
GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM, PALLADIUM AND DIAMONDS

On Wednesday, 9/26/01 four Swiss and hedge fund sellers turned buyers. Goldman Sachs tried its best to bury prices. Gold is over $290 an ounce and things are heating up again. The Aussie dollar creeps lower and the hedged gold producers are in big trouble. A break below A$0.48 would send gold flying as hedgers covered their shorts. Producers worldwide have written calls and with gold clearing $290 they have to buy them in, in the spot market.

Gold Fields says a decline in global gold supply is looming. It will be here in 2-3 years. John Reade of UBS Paine Webber has put NEM on is focus list. That is the first thing positive they've said about gold shares in 10 years. The banks that lent gold have to be very nervous.

Gold continues to inch its way upward. Open interest, the number of contracts in the market, has risen more than 12,000 to 129,840 contracts. Every night it's up all over the world and when it trades in New York and Chicago it is bashed. Technically gold is firm to strong. Recent share upgrades and initial coverage by brokerage houses is adding an air of respectability again to the gold market.

As the gold cartel acts each and every day to knock the price of gold down it is assisted by the world media, including the WSJ, Barrons and the Financial Times, among others. The Russians, Indians and others can't buy it fast enough. Even gold bullion coins are at an 8-10% premium, the demand is so great.

The Swiss National Bank will sell another 283 tons of gold through Sept. 2002. They still have 980 tons left to sell from an earmarked 1,300 tons. It fits within the Washington Agreement. Now you can see why Alan Greenspan was at the BIS in Basel last week. This is why Alan Greenspan and Robert Rubin are having secret meetings with Congress. All of Washington knows what is going on and every politician knows if the gold manipulation scam is exposed the whole financial system is coming down. That is why they won't pursue an investigation. It doesn't make any difference, because by June the whole conspiracy will come unraveled. Long-time gold bear, Andy Smith of Mitsui Global Precious Metals, says, "He is looking for a very large, probably delayed but possible sustained rise in gold prices."

Usul
(10/02/2001; 11:14:35 MDT - Msg ID: 62815)
Greetings, Mr Gresham!
http://www.usagold.com/halldiscussion.htmlThere is indeed a worthy discussion in these halls that mentions the law of your namesake. (link)

Gresham's Law
http://wcu.edu/~mulligan/gresham.html

Let's assume that derivatives are worse "money" than credit money- will they drive out everything, including cash and checking accounts? How can we obtain our groceries with derivatives? A disturbing thought.
Belgian
(10/02/2001; 11:43:22 MDT - Msg ID: 62816)
@ Nickel 62 # 62813
Sir,
This week-end, I dived into that NWO-thing on the web.
Absolute dominance by an elite is as old as the earth-crust.
It is part of the succes that negative doom and gloom is generating so easely, by the general public. I'm not having any sleepless nights on this temporary succes-story.

One example : Since birth, I do have an ID-cart that has been upgraded (sophisticated) already many times. We never felt this as a threat or whatsoever. And I can't come up with one example where this complete personal identification has ever been abused. So let us have some salt with this type of projections that have a very strong tendency to exaggerate and divert the serious attention of the factions, where there is manipulation and/or abuse.
nickel62
(10/02/2001; 11:53:30 MDT - Msg ID: 62817)
Belgian I completely agree...
I personally have little problem with a national security card. That was not the reason for my posting of part of Mr. Chapman's International Forcaster. It doesn't happen to concern me that much or at least not as much as some of the other manipulation of market issues that the article raises. I cut much of the report to keep it focused on what I thought were interesting insights and inadvertantly left in the concern that many of the civil libertarians are feeling currently with an identity card.
BR549
(10/02/2001; 12:28:31 MDT - Msg ID: 62818)
In 1558, Sir Thomas Gresham got it wrong then and others have it wrong now
"Perhaps a short lesson is in order for those new to this realm of thought. In 1558, Sir Thomas Gresham made his observation that whenever there was latitude in tendering payment (as could be seen in the major medieval cities where coins from many lands came together in the course of trade--as we covered in the case of Amsterdam,) inevitably the money of poorest quality was offered while the better money was retained. In describing the circulation of currency, Gresham's law says that bad money drives out good. (The inferior money circulates, while money of superior quality is held.) In our new system herein described, paper currency will circulate while Gold money will be saved."

Poppycock! There is no "good" or "bad" money. If gold coins are circulating in mass quantities as currency, then they would be spent along with all other currencies. There is no such thing as "inferior" money. There are however hoarders and "collectors" and there always will be. I saw a $1,000 FRN bill for sale on TV for $3,800+. Was this bad money in the 30's when it was printed? Is it bad money now? Neither, its value is, it is a collectible.

Similarly, I doubt that rare coins would circulate long because of savings and hoarding. Are they the same? Savings is generally thought of by classical economic theory as being healthy for the economy and hoarding is not. Healthy economies thrive on rapid non-inflationary economic flows. That's why the media is trying its hardest to get you to spend your hoarded money now. Take a cruise, fly on an airplane, buy that TV that you have always wanted, do it now.........

When economies contract, then available goods and services increase, supply outpaces demand, people become afraid of the future, then hoard rather than spend, and the economy slows down and sometimes even stops. If citizens hoard gold, then gold becomes wealth. If citizens hoard currencies, then deflation occurs, then recession, then depression.

Collectibles, especially gold coins, will never circulate as money because of hoarding. If gold coins are mass produced and pegged at a real value (as opposed to say the $50/US$ American Eagle), then a certain amount will circulate and a certain amount will always be hoarded by collectors. Russia's new coin is intended to extract FRN's from underneath their citizen's mattresses. Is the hoarded FRN in Russia bad money? Does the monopoly money from the originally produced board games circulate? If a deflation hits the world and gold drops to $10/US$oz. would American Eagles circulate?

The difference between savings and hoarding is just a matter of degree. In uncertain economic times we save currencies to cover short term needs AND hoard gold, food, water, .........

BR549
Netking
(10/02/2001; 12:29:02 MDT - Msg ID: 62819)
@Belgian - ID cards
http://www.wired.com/news/business/0,1367,47127,00.htmlYour future ID card?(that is before the "mark" on ones right hand or forehead) . . . . as the article says; "You never leave home without it" . . . but I'm sure they plagiarized that from somewhere.
BR549
(10/02/2001; 12:40:09 MDT - Msg ID: 62820)
National ID Cards
Belgian (msg#: 62816) ---"One example : Since birth, I do have an ID-cart that has been upgraded (sophisticated) already many times. We never felt this as a threat or whatsoever. And I can't come up with one example where this complete personal identification has ever been abused. "

How do you know? Did you ask the person that is constantly monitoring your ID card if you were good today?

Do you believe in the right to privacy? Do you believe in the notion that since I have not done anything wrong, then I have nothing to hide so why not a national ID card? Do you believe in freedom or just limited freedom? Is it OK if the government tracks your whereabouts constantly? Why not, you haven't done anything wrong have you? The statement that carrying a national is no threat is OK for you as long as your agree with everything your government is doing. But what if you don't? What happens when you change your mind?

Why an ID card? Why not just implant a computer under your skin?

BR549
escapethematrix
(10/02/2001; 12:40:26 MDT - Msg ID: 62821)
PRESIDENT PUTIN: RUSSIA WILL BUILD ITS ECONOMIC RELATIONS WITH EUROPEAN NATIONS IN LINE WITH INTEGRATED EUROPE'S INTEREST
http://english.pravda.ru/economics/2001/10/02/16876.htmlRussia is going to build its economic relations with European nations in line with the interests of an integrated Europe, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday as he met with representatives of the Belgian business circles in Brussels.
At the Russia-EU summit in Moscow this past May, the European Union came out with an initiative to create a common European economic zone that would incorporate Russia, the President recalled. "We are certain that such an approach will promote deeper cooperation between Russia and the EU," he said.
Putin also pointed out that Russia hails the spread of Euro-denominated contract payments between Russian and European companies, with Europe accounting for over 40 percent of Russian foreign trade. The President assured his audience that the Russian government will promote and create conditions for broader cooperation with Belgium and the rest of Europe.
escapethematrix
(10/02/2001; 12:49:58 MDT - Msg ID: 62822)
U.K.'s Blair Says U.K. Should Join Euro, If Ready
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Currency%20Europe&tp=ad_uknews&T=news_storypage99.ht&ad=euro_currency&s=AO7n5iBKLVS5LLidzSnippet:

Brighton, England, Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Britain should have the courage to join the euro in the current five-year parliament if the government's economic goals are achieved, Prime Minister Tony Blair said.
``We should only be part of the single currency if the economic conditions are met,'' Blair told Labour activists in Brighton, England. ``If met in this parliament, we should have the courage of our argument to ask the British people for their consent'' in a referendum
Usul
(10/02/2001; 14:33:52 MDT - Msg ID: 62823)
British manufacturing worse off than in last recession
http://www.economictimes.com/today/03worl01.htm"UK manufacturers could shed 300,000 jobs

BRITISH manufacturers are suffering worse conditions than in the country's last recession a decade ago and expect to shed more than 300,000 jobs this year and next, the Engineering Employers' Federation said on Tuesday..."

Usul
(10/02/2001; 14:36:43 MDT - Msg ID: 62824)
Duke Realty is braced for slowdown
http://www.newsobserver.com/tuesday/front/Business/Story/825469p-816984c.html"Clearly the whole of corporate America stopped running [and] some people are still stopped," he said. "We had a number of deals that were very close to signing that have gone away now"
Usul
(10/02/2001; 14:41:08 MDT - Msg ID: 62825)
Is economy facing a blip or a bump?
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/today/oct02/Businesstel/facingablip.shtml"After the [events of] September 11 the economic scene has changed. Outside the defence related industries, the new environment can only be described as less secure. That may be an understatement."
Usul
(10/02/2001; 14:45:59 MDT - Msg ID: 62826)
Corporate bad news keeps pouring in following Sept 11
http://news.excite.com/news/r/011002/15/attack-earnings"The spate of warnings have emanated from every sector and appear to be spreading further through the economy every day"
Usul
(10/02/2001; 14:47:02 MDT - Msg ID: 62827)
Telecom sector pooh-poohs Fed cut
http://news.excite.com/news/cbsmw/011002/14/sector_telecom"The Fed's expected move -- reducing both the fed funds and discount rates by another 50 basis points, the ninth cut this year -- seemed to have been discounted by the market, with telecom shares initially selling off on the news before stabilizing"
Mr Gresham
(10/02/2001; 14:56:30 MDT - Msg ID: 62828)
Usul
http://www.columbia.edu/~ram15/grash.html...including Mundell's essay on Gresham's Law, which is still beyond me to comment well upon. Oh, for a week to spend in the HOF! Aristotle is missed...

My hierarchy had to do with tangibility in a time of banking crisis, when fractional reserves proved inadequate to meet many "promises to pay." So, I would put PMs first, trade goods second, small denomination currency next, paper currency of any denomination (This is the cut-off point for ANY tangibility -- here we go digital, or at least to "paper" holdings;) ), demand deposits, debt paper, equity paper, and finally, any of what are now called derivatives on the above.

I expected (expect?) that at some cut-off point, government/Fed will attempt to placate demand deposit holders with long-term government paper, to buy time for system recovery (or just for favored parties to escape under cover.) Future tax revenues are an unknown, but have a history of compelling some faith in eventual repayment, so these will be thrown into the breach, and eventually discounted by the market, of course.

It is not whether something "circulates" as "currency" or not; EVERYTHING economic is for sale, or trade, at a price. Everyone will make his or her own estimations as to relative values.

Paper fiat currency now and always rests upon the expectation that others will accept it, and in a time of collapse, it will be heavily discounted from its prior valuations. Those valuations may plunge suddenly, or slowly, or zigzag up and down (Weimar, Confederacy, Continentals).

We are always surveying the views of others toward the acceptability of paper, and, should paper be questioned in its value, that "reading the public mood" will become a major daily activity.

Perhaps we confuse ourselves with the TWO uses of the word "Paper"? Paper currency in hand is at least not trapped in a paper "promise to pay" by a financial institution under siege. It is subject only to your neighbors' subsequent willingness to accept it as against other means of payment.

Perhaps the definition of "good" vs. "bad" money is any tradable medium that is either rising or falling in public estimation at that time and over the usable time horizon held by the viewer?

Gresham might say that people will try to trade out of the falling medium before it loses more value, while holding the appreciating one. The market will adjust to their differing views. Those who act on the more accurate views will preserve and grow capital.

His Law also considers the effects of government support or diktat affecting the market for money, saying that people will arbitrage around that as able in order to protect their own purchasing power.
Usul
(10/02/2001; 14:56:55 MDT - Msg ID: 62829)
The truth about gloom and doom
http://news.excite.com/news/cbsmw/011002/12/stwatch"Martin Weiss of "The Safe Money Report" has been preaching about the bubble for years. In the wake of last month's terrorist attacks, he stepped up his bearish attitude, saying, "Right now, most Americans have no cash." Weiss says he talked recently to automobile dealers in Palm Beach County, Florida. "Even though GM (GM) and Ford (F) are offering zero-percent financing for new cars, the dealers are getting no takers. None. Zilch." The Weiss advice: Buy U.S. Treasury bills directly from the government and sell almost all of your stocks, except for gold-mining companies."

One might also consider buying physical gold and taking delivery- the basis for this still seems to escape practically all people of "mainstream" thought. See earlier comments on leverage.
Usul
(10/02/2001; 15:00:00 MDT - Msg ID: 62830)
Gold Industry Plans US$200 Million Gold Marketing Initiative
http://www.stockhouse.com/news/news.asp?tick=ABX≠wsid=922456"With the support of gold producers from across the world, small and large, we intend to launch this campaign in the spring of 2002," said Randall Oliphant, Chairman of the Gold Marketing Initiative Steering Committee and President and Chief Executive Officer of Barrick Gold Corporation."
slingshot
(10/02/2001; 15:11:39 MDT - Msg ID: 62831)
Americans Arming Themselves, ABC NEWS
Well ABC News has got that right! Went to the Gun Shop to get ready for Blackpowder season and the shelves were somewhat bare. You name it, it was selling.

Have the basics? God, Guns, Guts and Gold.

The article is at World Net Daily. Guess there is enough bad news to make any Goldbugs Head spin right off his shoulders.

Things are getting alittle nervous in the USA.
And the Talking Heads sing, Don't Worry, Be Happy.
Slingshot

BR549
(10/02/2001; 15:47:30 MDT - Msg ID: 62832)
What happens when you dial 911 and nobody answers?
Slingshot---

I love it!

"Good" gold coins will outpace "good" gold future's and spot prices in its accelerated future value just as all physical gold will outpace all kinds of paper in future paper values. If not, why are some pre-1933's more valuable now?

Regards,

BR549
mhchuck
(10/02/2001; 15:54:32 MDT - Msg ID: 62833)
A View from the other side.

"Personal Finance"��. I'm not certain, but I read somewhere that they have 200,000 subscribers including myself. (No, I don't buy stocks-just like to read.) Stephen Leeb's forecasts have been correct more often than not. My E-mail to him is included at the end of the post.

From the Desk of: STEPHEN LEEB, editor of Personal Finance, Oct 19th.

Wall Street came back yesterday, and what a return. For all the optimistic talk on radio and TV previous to the opening about everyone's patriotic duty to buy, the first day of trading after a 4-day hiatus proved again that the market is efficient, not sentimental.

The stock and bond markets reflect our economy and that's wholly different than representing the American collective consciousness about the terrorist attacks in New York and Washington, DC. We knew we were in a slowdown before 11 September and now that slowdown has been exacerbated by those terrible events.

That's why the Federal Reserve cut rates a half point before the market opened, the government has approved a $40 billion aid package for starters and are looking into a $12.5 billion check for the ailing airline industry. All this showed up before trading opened Monday morning.

And frankly, the market held up pretty well considering. On the most fundamental level-the sheer ability to trade-yesterday was a roaring success. It was the busiest day in NYSE history and everything went off with nary a hitch just four days after a crushing blow was dealt to the financial center of the financial capital of the world. And in percentage terms, the loss didn't even make it into the top 10.

As far as where we go from here, expect the market to have a downside bias for the next month to month and a half. Then the liquidity that the Federal Reserve and the federal government have added to the system will start to percolate through the economy.

You can already see the anticipation for re-energized economic growth in the bond market. Rates on the short-term end are falling and long-term rates are taking off. That reflects two things: People are scared and parking their money in the safest investments around (US short-term paper); and with all this money being poured into the economy, inflation is just a matter of time.

I expect by year-end stocks will be in an uptrend, as recovery seems more a possibility than it does here.

Two things to bear in mind throughout this ordeal:

1.)*******Any problem that can be solved with money is no fundamental problem. If we can spend or grow our way out of this, which I'm convinced we can, this is a short-term problem for long-term investors. And we'll soon have a historic buying opportunity.******* End. (Stars are my emphasis)

2.) We're much safer now than we were on 10 September. The acts last Tuesday were unimaginable but so was an enemy like this. Two thousand years ago Sun Tzu said, "Hold your enemies closer than your friends." It's always better
to know your enemy, so you can defeat him. We're on that path now, albeit at a horrific price.

From the desk of Personal Finance Editor Stephen Leeb, Oct 28th.

It's the worst quarterly point loss on the Dow in history. Fortress America has been breeched. More than 100,000 jobs are gone from the economy is two weeks. Military reserves are patrolling airports and the nation's air space.

And I'm very optimistic.

I know it sounds insane and I should be wringing my hands over biological warfare, a growing global economic maelstrom, and a fundamental shift in our well-worn way of life. That would be easy.

But you have to look beyond all these emotional trigger points. The markets deal with real numbers and real value. They're rational-at least most of the time.

Coming out of such extreme circumstances it's only taken a couple of trading weeks to start to see stability comeback to stocks and bonds. The speculative fervor has died down and investors are looking at earnings reports and housing starts and confidence numbers again. Most aren't as horrible as the recent days on the Dow would have us believe.

********I've always said that a problem that can be solved with money isn't that big a problem. And while the terrorists may have accelerated our recessionary trajectory I wouldn't give them an ounce of credit for putting it in motion. They may have bruised our collective psyche but the market is simply struggling through part of an economic cycle. ********** End. (Stars are my emphasis)


My E-mail to Stephen Leeb sent today.

Hi Stephen,

I have been a subscriber for several years and have noted for well over a year now that you have been heralding more inflation. The Tragedy on Sept 11 has caused the FED, as you say, to add even more stimulus, an amount that is possibly historic in nature. My Question is, "Why do you only rarely mention gold, or gold stocks in your commentary?" Since inflationary monetary policy has within it the seeds of its own destruction, this stimulus you speak of can only be another temporary "fix." I think you should educate your readers more on the nature of money and not just be a perpetual bull tagging along with a monetary system that will ultimately collapse the world economy.

Best Regards,

Chuck

Market bulls, Politicians, Media, The "Something for nothing crowd," (About 99.99% of the population) tacitly understand that Gold and it's advocates are their mortal enemy. Standing against their illogic and dishonesty has made me stronger. There is a downside however: I don't have any friends. (Boo Hoo!)

Gold: It's more than you think.

Mhchuck
Cavan Man
(10/02/2001; 16:08:06 MDT - Msg ID: 62834)
mhchuck
The casualty is the dollar. The dollar has competition.
escapethematrix
(10/02/2001; 16:09:16 MDT - Msg ID: 62835)
October 2, 2001. Court Hearing Rescheduled to November 5, 2001
http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary19.html#anchor3931On October 1, 2001, Judge Lindsay entered the following SCHEDULING ORDER:
The clerk has scheduled for hearing, on Tuesday, October 9, 2001, the several motions to dismiss this action. Because of the number of such motions and the myriad issues they raise, I will require more time to study the parties' submissions. Accordingly, the hearing in this matter is rescheduled to Monday, November 5, 2001, at 2:00 p.m. SO ORDERED.
/s/ Reginald C. Lindsay, United States District Judge

Justice delayed....Hopefully not to be denied.
Pandagold
(10/02/2001; 16:31:28 MDT - Msg ID: 62836)
It is the best of times and the worst of times

Well, it seems a long time since I last contributed to this forum. I've glanced in once or twice, as I do with other open portals where there are like minds - and quite a few unlike ones, but where a subject close to my heart is the main topic of conversation round the fireside - albeit a metaphorical one. Hope you don't mind if I drop in for a couple of minutes.

I saw the competition, and read one or two very interesting entries. The thread title got me thinking - not too deeply as I have not the time; too busy making money in the market. Anyone not is losing out. Sure gold is manipulated, what isn't these days. But sooner or later, the pattern becomes more or less predictable if you stop listening to the media pundits and newscasters, and focus on what the market is doing and telling you.

Do you remember that story "Wind in the Willows" (one of my favourites); when Ratty told Mole when he was proudly pontificating about the river, his river, and how the river would speak to him? This was because he was focused on something that held an important place in his life, and from which he derived much pleasure.

The market, to me is like a great river twisting and turning as it seeks its level and the least line of resistance. Sometimes swollen and flowing fast, at other times so low you can see the bottom and there's barely a trickle. But always interesting, and there is always a freshness, and excitement about it. And if you watch it, and listen carefully, I guarantee, it will speak to you.

I know the competition is over, and this is not, nor was ever, intended as an entry
It is meant purely as a thought to share.

Has there been change? Yes, there has been change, and yet there's been no change. I have adapted a Dickensian paradox "It was the best of times, and the worst of times" (Tale of Two Cities).

To illustrate, I quote "Let the influx of money be ever so great, if there is no confidence, property will sink in value. The circulation of confidence is better than the circulation of money" (James Madison 1751-1826)

I need add little to that. You all, or at least most, are astute enough to understand what that means.

As we know, it was all happening before September 11th. It is merely now being more emphasised and intensified, because there is something to blame.

All Life, all history, is one of change, adapt, and a repetition of man's folly in how he does so. Change is an ongoing process, in ourselves and what is around us. As Marcus Auralius said 2000 years ago - "It is not what happens to us, but how we relate, and react, to what happens that is important".

Where does gold fit into the picture? I said in many of my earlier posts that gold's primary role at present (I said primary, not only) is psychological. While gold is restrained, there is no panic. An orderly evacuation is enabled.

When something is restrained, that means there is a strain. All you have to do is make your way to the lifeboat in a calm manner, and steady nerve, but keep an eye on that 'strain' - everything has a breaking point, eventually.

Good luck in all your endeavours, and don't miss out by letting the gloom that is around blind your vision.
MarkeTalk
(10/02/2001; 16:33:12 MDT - Msg ID: 62837)
Thanks, Strad Master
RE: Ed Dames, Art Bell, etc.Thank you, dear Sir, for informing me of the track record of these two gentlemen. I remember the Heaven's Gate cult from the newspapers but did not know that Ed Dames was the catalyst behind their ill-informed decisions to commit suicide. I can understand your feeling about being secure from terrorist attack if Ed Dames had predicted it. But I believe I read or heard that the FBI and other law enforcement people still consider Los Angeles to be a viable target.
slingshot
(10/02/2001; 16:41:38 MDT - Msg ID: 62838)
PandaGold
Hello PandaGold,
Good to here from you again.
Slingshot
slingshot
(10/02/2001; 16:48:04 MDT - Msg ID: 62839)
MhChuck Msg# 62833
FriendsTalk about God and your friends leave the area.
Talk about Guns and your going to kill someone
Talk about Gold and you become a Nut
Talk about Guts and now your a troublemaker

Who needs them!
But they sure as hell come running to you for advice when they are in trouble.
Slingshot
mhchuck
(10/02/2001; 17:00:21 MDT - Msg ID: 62840)
@Cavan Man

Hi Cavan Man,

A true competitor would have to flex its golden muscles.
Is 15% muscle to body fat enough?

mhchuck
BR549
(10/02/2001; 17:45:28 MDT - Msg ID: 62841)
The removal of Freedoms takes an instant to lose and sometimes an eternity to recover
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,35605,00.html"Attorney General John Ashcroft has asked Congress for authority to investigate and detain individuals suspected of involvement in terrorist activities. The bill also seeks, among other things to:

� Allow law enforcement authorities to obtain nationwide "pen register" and "trap and trace" orders that permit them to learn the incoming or outgoing phone numbers from a particular telephone.

� Extend the amount of time a court order can be used to conduct physical searches from 45 to 90 days and electronic surveillance from 90 days to one year.

� Place no limit on the length of time an alien suspected of terrorism can be detained without filing charges.

� Extend the roaming wire tap authority already in existence to multiple forms of communications, including the Internet.

� Allow authorities to use intelligence information from foreign sources that would have been illegally obtained under U.S. constitutional provisions."



This is a tough one! Not for the rights of the terrorists, they have none, but for the rest of us.

BR549
sourdough
(10/02/2001; 17:46:30 MDT - Msg ID: 62842)
Hysteria???
eBalita � ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

October 3, 2001

Peso:Dollar Rate : 51.600 - $1
Previously :P51.40=$1

THOUSANDS HIT BY FLU VIRUS IN METRO
Over a thousand students have contracted influenza forcing some schools in Metro Manila to suspend classes on Tuesday, officials said.

In the 3 p.m. report by the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC), a total of 1,041students from 10 schools, most of them located in the eastern section of Metro Manila, have absented themselves after contracting the flu.

Saint Paul's College in Pasig City reported the highest number of students affected, forcing school officials to suspend classes until Monday.

NDCC also reported that La Salle Greenhills in Mandaluyong reported 241 cases; Xavier School in San Juan, 41; Poveda Learning Center in Mandaluyong, 100; Saint Paul's College in Pasig City, 500; Immaculate Concepcion Academy in San Juan, 17; Dominican College, San Juan, 41 and Saint Bridgett in Quezon City, 24.

Initial reports also showed that San Agustin School in Makati City reported eight cases, while Claret School in Quezon City had nine and Don Bosco Technical Institute, 10.

Saint Paul school officials immediately ordered the suspension of classes and announced a thorough clean up and fumigation of the premises.

Health Secretary Manuel Dayrit said initial findings indicated that the victims contracted "Influenza type A strain H1N1."

"This is a common Influenza virus which has existed for many years in the country," Dayrit said.

"Based on our own calculations, [there] seems to be an steep increase based on the percentages of children that appears to have taken ill," he added.

Dayrit said authorities will continue their investigation and collect throat-swabs from affected students to firmly confirm the causative strain of influenza.

Dayrit downplayed the possibility of influenza epidemic and said the number of reported cases merely reflect the present trend.

"The number of students who have been infected is within the range consistent with the Influenza season," he said.

Epidemiologist Eric Tayag of the Department of Health, however, admitted that the number of reported cases were quite "unusual."

"This is very unusual, but if that should be the case, then we will have to declare an influenza outbreak and take precautionary measures," he said.

Tayag explained that the months of September and October are considered the twilight stages of the influenza season. "We have given enough information to the public, but this was apparently overtaken by the World Trade Center [incidents] in the United States," Tayag added.

Even as Palace officials downplayed reports of a possible influenza outbreak, President Arroyo ordered Dayrit to make a detailed progress report.

Presidential Spokesman Rigoberto Tiglao and National Security Adviser Roilo Golez said reports of influenza outbreak and possible chemical warfare in Metro Manila are "too hysterical."

Golez earlier downplayed the reports and even blamed media for reporting a possible epidemic in the schools.

"Let us remain calm here. We have not received any report from hospitals of any kid taken there for possible illness. Apparently, all of the private schools have been affected and also public schools. There is a possibility that this is a result of passed-on information," he said.

Golez claimed that the reports were simply "amplified," blaming the ABS-CBN News Channel (ANC) for reporting the number of victims. He said some text messages have been quoting ANC reports.

Golez even suggested for a media blackout until authorities finally determine the cause of the supposed influenza outbreak.

Meanwhile, United States Embassy officials said that they have been checking the reported outbreak of influenza in several schools in eastern Metro Manila.

Embassy telephone lines were jammed with calls from their nationals, officials who asked not to be named said.

Other diplomatic missions are also looking into the reports. They have appealed to their nationals to remain calm.

MILITARY UNCOVERS PLANS FOR METRO MANILA BOMBING
In retaliation to a US attack on Afghanistan, terrorists linked to Osama bin Laden will be unleashed to bomb strategic points in Metro Manila and place the population under a state of fear and confusion, a military intelligence official said yesterday.

At the same time, military intelligence has reported that the brother of Bin Laden's Filipino right-hand man has sneaked into the country to help the saboteurs make the bombs that would be used to sow terror in the metropolis.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, the intelligence official said "raw reports" from various sources showed that the terrorists are in safe houses in different parts of Metro Manila awaiting the order to strike. (Parang bigla yatang gumaling ang 'intelligence gathering' ng AFP! Halos talo pa ang CIA at FBI sa mga scoop re: terrorism. Don't you get the feeling na parang gusto lang sumali sa uso? Wag naman sana. -m)

"We received information that they are just awaiting actions that would be taken by the US," he said.

But the intelligence official said police and military officials are taking the report seriously as the government would not want to be caught flat-footed in case of any emergency.

"We (intelligence community) are closely monitoring the situation although these reports are still considered raw information, but we're not taking chances," the official said.
Intelligence reports said Talib, brother of a certain Amuran, who is reportedly a former Abu Sayyaf member, is helping the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) prepare and assemble bombs.

"Around 800 sympathizers of the Abu Sayyaf have committed themselves to joining a wave of terrorist bombings in Metro Manila for the next two months," intelligence reports said.

Intelligence reports said Kunting Ashraf, alias Abu Khalid, who is a student of Amuran, has also arrived in Metro Manila, along with five Abu Sayyaf and two MILF members for a still unknown mission.

The Abu Sayyaf has a tactical alliance with disgruntled members of the MILF and the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), intelligence reports added.

The intelligence official said authorities are looking into reports that some non-government organizations, set up by Bin Laden's brother-in-law Mohammed Jamal Khalifa in the early 1990s, are conduits for foreign funds for the Abu Sayyaf.

Army officials said Bin Laden's al-Qaeda group continues to finance the Abu Sayyaf based on information given by captured Abu Sayyaf leaders Nadzmie Sabdullah and Jimmy Theng.

Armed Forces chief Gen. Diomedio Villanueva said communications between the Abu Sayyaf and al-Qaeda have waned but remain open
Cavan Man
(10/02/2001; 17:47:54 MDT - Msg ID: 62843)
mhchuck
Hi. It's time. All this text relating to the Euro and political will etc. requires not so much a resolution but, "in your face" progress in the form of an easily recognizable sign if you will. If not now then, never. Can we begin all over again with easy money, borrow and spend, strong dollar and massive, cheap imports to keep inflation low etc.? My bet is no, heck no. It is October and inflation on a large scale beckons. take care.....CM
sector
(10/02/2001; 19:23:48 MDT - Msg ID: 62844)
@escapethematrix About the Howe/BIS Delay
There are reasons for optimism. First the judge moved the Oct 9th hearing time from 3:30 PM to 2:30PM. Now he adds a month and schedules the hearing for 2PM on a Monday thus giving a full afternoon for arguments.

Analyzing the sequence of court actions one can reasonably conclude that the judge sees more in this case than can be handled by a summary dismissal. He needs more time to assess the issues. The defendants are now exposed to another month of gold market rigors. They must continue to manipulate the price of gold hoping that any leaks in their operations stay plugged...that World gold demand [in a wartime environment] can be managed.

Along those lines the, IMF earmarked gold shipments for July fell to zero from a 40 tonne per month clip since last September. Have the cabal run out? Time will tell.

One thing is certain -- the price of gold won't go down.

Chris Powell
(10/02/2001; 19:46:18 MDT - Msg ID: 62845)
Howe case delayed; gold industry goes ga-ga over mere jewellery
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/899If only they put even a tiny fraction of this
kind of promotional money into exposing the
gold price suppression scheme....

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/899


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

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Mr Gresham
(10/02/2001; 19:53:05 MDT - Msg ID: 62846)
Buying and Selling Patriotism
http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-perl/bbs.pl?read=187297Civil Bear says it all here.
mhchuck
(10/02/2001; 20:35:58 MDT - Msg ID: 62847)
Cavan Man
The Euro must not repeat the mistakes of it's predecessor to gain credibility in my eyes. I think Trail Guide has said something to the effect that it would take another fifty years for the Euro to get to where the dollar is now. That just perpetuates a game that will do nothing to improve the world your daughters are going to live in my opinion.

I find it incomprehensible that some gold advocates believe that gold is "only a hedge," thereby acceding to a system that has put the world on the brink of economic collapse. This latest massive infusion of liquidity is yet another temporary fix. If this keeps up, the kids of today are going to need two million dollars (or twelve Euros?) to buy an average home. I guess that's nothing to fret about if interest rates are set at zero and remain there, in addition to the minimum wage being raised to $250 an hour. Hell, it's going to my house at two million dollars that they "wished" they could buy, so why am I griping?

"The earth belongs to the living not the dead.�.we may consider each generation as a distinct nation, with a right to bind themselves, but not the succeeding generation. The modern theory of the perpetuation of debt has drenched the earth with blood, and crushed its inhabitants under burdens ever accumulating."

Thomas Jefferson.

After President Bush hunts down the terrorists, let's hunt down the terrorist's of the gold market and those whose polices have drenched the earth with blood.

Best Regards,

mhchuck
nickel62
(10/02/2001; 21:00:43 MDT - Msg ID: 62848)
Hello Pandagold.
I was warmed to see you post again. I have myself been gone for a long time and miss when I return the brillance of Aristotle and Oro and people like yourself. Thanks for making a comment..It is strange times and all of us are rethinking our successes and our hopes..Maybe the river is working for us now. I realized for the first time in five years my performance is much better than any one I know..it is funny after so many years as a portfolio manager to be happy about such subdued performance when all it really is is staying in place...gold get you some..
Solomon Weaver
(10/02/2001; 21:18:53 MDT - Msg ID: 62849)
October Madness: The Gap Between GAAP and Reported Earnings
http://www.cfo.com/article/1,4616,0|83|AD|5252,00.html"The earnings reporting period that gets under way in a week or so should be prove mighty interesting.

Clearly, a lot of companies are going to miss their consensus forecasts. But beyond that, this next batch of earnings reports will underscore the true creativity of finance executives.

First, a number of businesses will no doubt explain away their woes with the words ''September 11'' or ''terrorist attacks.'' Some excuses will be legitimate; many won't.

Further, expect to see some fascinating numbers coming out of Silicon Valley � pro forma numbers, to be precise. If only they were.

The fact is, technology companies have been the biggest embracers of pro forma results, which are really only hypothetical numbers. Or, more aptly, they are the numbers that the companies want you to think about � even though those numbers rarely reflect the true health of a company's ongoing operations.

Obviously, pro forma numbers are generally much different than the ones companies must submit to the Securities and Exchange Commission. Those results, which must be calculated under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, are frequently buried in corporate press releases.

If you don't think there's a disparity between pro forma results and GAAP results, chew on this: The Associated Press did an in-depth analysis of earnings reports by the 100 largest technology companies in northern California. The wire service calculated that, under GAAP standards, the 100 companies have reported combined losses of around $71 billion. Using pro forma figures, however, these same companies reported a tidy profit of $10 billion."

. . . . . . . . . .

Real profits vs. paper profits. POS

sourdough
(10/02/2001; 21:54:02 MDT - Msg ID: 62850)
Asian perspective on currency
Some early lessons from the last three weeks

Avoiding US dollar the safer strategy for hedging Asian balance sheets

By
Larry Wee


IT seems like only yesterday, but three weeks have now passed since the events of Sept 11. Enough time, perhaps, to sort out some preliminary winners and the losers - and to learn some lessons from price action in financial markets.

One initial conclusion is that Asian currency holders are still better off avoiding the US dollar for now.

A first lesson is that pretty much every country in Asia will get hammered badly from the threat of a sharp slowdown - likely now a recession - in the US economy over the next two to three quarters. Sharply weaker Asian numbers such as Japan's Q3 tankan survey this week continue to confirm a grim outlook in the immediate future.


This combines, unhappily, with chronic Asian headaches like overdue bank and corporate restructuring, and a dearth of foreign direct investments as investors head for safer shores. The result is that the Japanese yen and this region's currencies have suffered a relapse versus the US dollar - topped by the rupiah's slide of more than 10 per cent since Sept 11.

Meanwhile, however, a second observation is that the greenback remains out of favour versus favourite alternatives like gold, the Swiss franc, the euro and the sterling pound.

This is mainly because of an underlying fear that the US dollar and US asset markets are still vulnerable to things going awfully wrong - for example, because of a couple of botched attempts on the terrorist campaign front, or yet another attack.

The third conclusion, therefore, must be that even holders of Asian currencies - backed by solid reserves and high domestic savings - such as the yen and Singapore dollar, would benefit from some hedge with higher yielding euros, sterling pounds or Swiss francs on corrective swings. More so if they are already owners of some greenbacks or US dollar assets.

The three have proven the most resilient on the downside even when the US asset markets - and therefore the US dollar - bounce back. Compare the experience of Asian, US and European equity indices over the last three weeks.

From levels on Sept 10, the latest levels of selected benchmark stock indices tell an important story.

Based on levels yesterday afternoon, just about every index in Asia ex-Japan is still registering double-digit losses - ranging from 11.5 per cent for Malaysia's KLCI, to 13.8 per cent for the STI, and 18.6 per cent in the case of Taiwan's weighted index.

The Nikkei, meanwhile, has climbed back above 10,000 to finish almost unchanged from Sept 10, UK's Footsie is down a mild 4.4 per cent, and Germany's Dax 9.4 per cent. Meanwhile, based on Monday's Wall Street close, the Dow is off 8 per cent, and the Nasdaq a sharper 12.7 per cent.

Translate this into currency market terms, and we find that the US dollar is now actually higher than on Sept 10 versus just about every Asian currency, including the yen - but still down about 4 per cent versus the Swiss franc, 1.5 per cent versus the euro, 0.8 per cent versus the UK unit, and a whopping 7 per cent versus gold.

Those with yen and Sing dollar balance sheets would thus have been better off hedging themselves with euros and the UK pound. Versus Sept 10 levels, the greenback was about 0.5 per cent higher versus the yen at 120.80 yen, and about 1.6 per cent better at S$1.7775 yesterday.

In contrast, the euro has risen a bit more than 2 per cent to 110.7 yen, and 3.2 per cent to about S$1.63. Similarly, the pound has risen 1.4 per to test important tops around 178.7 yen, and has advanced 2.5 per cent to S$2.6293.

We are advised of a potentially long and painful US campaign against international terrorism. And there's a very real danger that even if US Fed cuts down to 2 per cent US interest rates (eventually), it will not be reflected by better US macro stats anytime soon. Translation: Nervous and volatile US dollar moves cannot be ruled out in the near term.

But if capital preservation is a top priority, such moves could present opportunities to build long euro and sterling positions versus the yen and Sing - excluding greenbacks altogether for now. Better upside, potentially less downside, if clues from the last three weeks are any reliable indication.

Versus the Sing, watch how well first supports hold up at S$1.6110-30 per euro, and at S$2.6120-40 per sterling pound. In yen terms, watch price behaviour around euro and pound supports of 108.80-109 yen and 176.80-177 yen respectively.

uponroof
(10/02/2001; 22:26:49 MDT - Msg ID: 62851)
sector- timing/ Jewellery and POG
sector-good points. Rescheduling, at the very least, is indicating concern. I guess this judge is not accustomed to receiving drafts from the most powerful men in the world. Perhaps he has a new resolve to seek out actual truth given all the new dynamics of this world. I hope this extra month is something you and GATA can use to your advantage. A lot of evidence being ushered out into the open these days. If anyone can spot something of use, you can.



As for jewellery...

The industry leaders and their front (WGC) are controlled by their bankers.....period.

The day Randall Oliphant, chairman of the WGC Gold Marketing Initiative Steering Committee, does anything to promote POG, will be the day all hell finally breaks loose and Barrick rolls over long like an old prostitute on a new street in a new dress. What a disgusting sham the WGC is.

Speaking of POG, it's under some pressure the last 24 hours. My suspicious mind is thinking an air stike is being coordinated with a 5-10 buck drop, hoping to limit the upside aftermath. If you're a trader, I'm thinking any such drop to the 285 or lower area should be hopped on long immediately.

Can't see how they can avoid the inevitable, but they will try to postpone regardless.
sector
(10/02/2001; 22:47:12 MDT - Msg ID: 62852)
@uponroof TKS...The Uncertainty Favors Goldbugs
Uncertainty about what the US military response will be...what our true enemies do about it...what happens on the other fronts [North Korea, Taiwan].

Uncertainty about the remaining US bullion reserves to be sold to keep pog suppressed.

Uncertainty about the depth of the post 911 economic shocks.

Uncertainty about how soon the inevitable inflationary waves will strike the US.

An abundance of uncertainty. Why hold stocks in such times? Unless they are PMs or even better physical.
tg
(10/02/2001; 23:01:17 MDT - Msg ID: 62853)
(No Subject)
Probably worth a re-read before the American ideal is lost.
think first, rather then believe all you hear.

Fake Terrorism - The Road To Dictatorship By Michael Rivero
http://24.142.63.193/perl/profile?op=show&user=Michael%20Rivero

It's the oldest trick in the book, dating back to Roman times;
creating the enemies you need.

In 70 BC, an ambitious minor politician and extremely wealthy man,
Marcus Licineus Crassus, wanted to rule Rome. Just to give you an idea
of what sort of man Crassus really was, he is credited with invention
of the fire brigade. But in Crassus' version, his fire-fighting slaves
would race to the scene of a burning building whereupon Crassus would
offer to buy it on the spot for a tiny fraction of it's worth. If the
owner sold, Crassus' slaves would put out the fire. If the owner
refused to sell, Crassus allowed the building to burn to the ground.
By means of this device, Crassus eventually came to be the largest
single private landholder in Rome, and used some of his wealth to help
back Julius Caesar against Cicero.

In 70 BC Rome was still a Republic, which placed very strict limits on
what Rulers could do, and more importantly NOT do. But Crassus had no
intentions of enduring such limits to his personal power, and
contrived a plan.

Crassus seized upon the slave revolt led by Sparticus in order to
strike terror into the hearts of Rome, whose garrison Sparticus had
already defeated in battle. But Sparticus had no intention of marching
on Rome itself, a move he knew to be suicidal. Sparticus and his band
wanted nothing to do with the Roman empire and had planned from the
start merely to loot enough money from their former owners in the
Italian countryside to hire a mercenary fleet in which to sail to
freedom.

Sailing away was the last thing Crassus wanted Sparticus to do. He
needed a convenient enemy with which to terrorize Rome itself for his
personal political gain. So Crassus bribed the mercenary fleet to sail
without Sparticus, then positioned two Roman legions in such a way
that Sparticus had no choice but to march on Rome.

Terrified of the impending arrival of the much-feared army of
gladiators, Rome declared Crassus Praetor. Crassus then crushed
Sparticus' army and even though Pompeii took the credit, Crassus was
elected Consul of Rome the following year.

With this maneuver, the Romans surrendered their Republican form of
government. Soon would follow the first Triumvirate, consisting of
Crassus, Pompeii, and Julius Caesar, followed by the reign of the god-
like Emperors of Rome.

The Romans were hoaxed into surrendering their Republic, and accepting
the rule of Emperors.

Julius Caesar's political opponent, Cicero, for all his literary
accomplishments, played the same games in his campaign against Julius
Caesar, claiming that Rome was falling victim to an internal "vast
right wing" conspiracy in which any expressed desire for legislative
limits no government was treated as suspicious behavior. Cicero, in
order to demonstrate to the Romans just how unsafe Rome has become
hired thugs to cause as much disturbance as possible, and campaigned
on a promise to end the internal strife if elected and granted
extraordinary powers.

What Cicero only dreamed of, Adolph Hitler succeeded in doing. Elected
Chancellor of Germany, Hitler, like Crassus, had no intention of
living with the strict limits to his power imposed by German law.
Unlike Cicero, Hitler's thugs were easy to recognize; they all wore
the same brown shirts. But their actions were no different than those
of their Roman predecessors. They staged beatings, set fires, caused
as much trouble as they could, while Hitler made speeches promising
that he could end the crime wave of subversives and terrorism if he
was granted extraordinary powers.

The Germans were hoaxed into surrendering their Republic, and
accepting the rule of Der Fuhrer.

The state-sponsored schools will never tell you this, but governments
routinely rely on hoaxes to sell their agendas to an otherwise
reluctant public. The Romans accepted the Emperors and the Germans
accepted Hitler not because they wanted to, but because the carefully
crafted illusions of threat appeared to leave no other choice.

Our government too uses hoaxes to create the illusion that We The
People have no choice but the direction the government wishes us to go
in.

In 1898, Joseph Pulitzer's New York World and William Randolph
Hearst's New York Journal were arguing for American intervention in
Cuba. Hearst is reported to have dispatched a photographer to Cuba to
photograph the coming war with Spain. When the photographer asked just
what war that might be, Hearst is reported to have replied, "You take
the photographs, and I will provide the war". Hearst was true to his
word, as his newspaper published stories of great atrocities being
committed against the Cuban people, most of which turned out to be
complete fabrications.

On the night of February 15, 1898, the USS Main, lying in Havana
harbor in a show of US resolve to protect her interests, exploded
violently. Captain Sigsbee, the commander of the Maine, urged that no
assumptions of enemy attack be made until there was a full
investigation of the cause of the explosion. For this, Captain Sigsbee
was excoriated in the press for "refusing to see the obvious". The
Atlantic Monthly declared flat out that to suppose the explosion to be
anything other than a deliberate act by Spain was "completely at
defiance of the laws of probability".

Under the slogan "Remember the Maine", Americans went to war with
Spain, wresting from that nation ownership of what is now much of the
American southwest.

In 1975, an investigation led by Admiral Hyman Rickover examined the
data recovered from a 1911 examination of the wreck and concluded that
there had been no evidence of an external explosion. The most likely
cause of the sinking was a coal dust explosion in a coal bunker
imprudently located next to the ship's magazines. Captain Sigsbee's
caution had been well founded.

President Franklin Delano Roosevelt needed a war. He needed the fever
of a major war to mask the symptoms of a still deathly ill economy
struggling back from the Great Depression. Roosevelt wanted a war with
Germany to stop Hitler, but despite several provocations in the
Atlantic, the American people, still struggling with that troublesome
economy, were opposed to any wars.

Roosevelt needed an enemy, and if America would not willingly attack
that enemy, then one would have to be maneuvered into attacking
America, much as Marcus Licinius Crassus has maneuvered Sparticus into
attacking Rome.

The way open to war was created when Japan signed the tripartite
agreement with Italy and Germany, with all parties pledging mutual
defense to each other. Whereas Hitler would never declare war on the
United States no matter the provocation, the means to force Japan to
do so were readily at hand.

The first step was to place oil and steel embargoes on Japan, using
Japan's wars on the Asian mainland as a reason. This forced Japan to
consider seizing the oil and mineral rich regions in Indonesia. With
the European powers militarily exhausted by the war in Europe, the
United States was the only power in the Pacific able to stop Japan
from invading the Dutch East Indies, and by moving the Pacific fleet
from San Diego to Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, Roosevelt made a pre-emptive
strike on that fleet the mandatory first step in any Japanese plan to
extend it's empire into the "southern resource area".

Roosevelt boxed in Japan just as completely as Crassus had boxed in
Sparticus. Japan needed oil. They had to invade Indonesia to get it,
and to do that they had to remove the threat of the American fleet at
Pearl Harbor. There never really was any other course open to them.

To enrage the American people as much as possible, Roosevelt needed
the first overt attack by Japan to be as bloody as possible, appearing
as a sneak attack much as the Japanese had done to the Russians. From
that moment up until the attack on Pearl Harbor itself, Roosevelt and
his associates made sure that the commanders in Hawaii, General Short
and Admiral Kimmel, were kept in the dark as much as possible about
the location of the Japanese fleet and it's intentions, then later
scapegoated for the attack. (Congress recently exonerated both Short
and Kimmel, posthumously restoring them to their former ranks).

But as the Army board had concluded at the time, and subsequent de-
classified documents confirmed, Washington DC knew the attack was
coming, knew exactly where the fleet was, and knew where it was
headed.

On November 29th, Secretary of State Hull showed United Press reporter
Joe Leib a message with the time and place of the attack, and the New
York Times in it's special 12/8/41 Pearl Harbor edition, on page 13,
reported that the time and place of the attack had been known in
advance!

The much repeated claim that the Japanese fleet maintained radio
silence on it's way to Hawaii was a lie. Among other intercepts still
held in the Archives of the NSA is the UNCODED message sent by the
Japanese tanker Shirya stating, "proceeding to a position 30.00 N,
154.20 E. Expect to arrive at that point on 3 December." (near HI)

President Lyndon Johnson wanted a war in Vietnam. He wanted it to help
his friends who owned defense companies to do a little business. He
needed it to get the Pentagon and CIA to quit trying to invade Cuba.
And most of all, he needed a provocation to convince the American
people that there was really "no other choice".

On August 5, 1964, newspapers across America reported "renewed
attacks" against American destroyers operating in Vietnamese waters,
specifically the Gulf of Tonkin. The official story was that North
Vietnamese torpedo boats launched an "unprovoked attack" on the USS
Maddox while it was on "routine patrol".

The truth is that USS Maddox was involved in aggressive intelligence
gathering in coordination with actual attacks by South Vietnam and the
Laotian Air Force against targets in North Vietnam. The truth is also
that there was no attack by torpedo boats against the USS Maddox.
Captain John J. Herrick, the task force commander in the Gulf, cabled
Washington DC that the report was the result of an "over-eager"
sonarman who had picked up the sounds of his own ship's screws and
panicked. But even with this knowledge that the report was false,
Lyndon Johnson went on national TV that night to announce the
commencement of air strikes against North Vietnam, "retaliation" for
an attack that had never occurred.

President George Bush wanted a war in Iraq. Like Crassus, George Bush
is motivated by money. Specifically oil money. But with the OPEC
alliance failing to keep limits on oil production in the Mideast, the
market was being glutted with oil pumped from underneath Iraq, which
sat over roughly 1/3 of the oil reserves of the entire region.

George wanted a war to stop that flow of oil, to keep prices (and
profits) from falling any further than they already had. But like
Roosevelt, he needed the "other side" to make the first move.

Iraq had long been trying to acquire greater access to the Persian
Gulf, and felt limited confined a narrow strip of land along Kuwait's
northern border, which placed Iraqi interests in close proximity with
hostile Iran. George Bush, who had been covertly arming Iraq during
its war with Iran, sent word via Jean Kirkpatrick that the United
States would not intervene if Saddam Hussein grabbed a larger part of
Kuwait. Saddam fell for the bait and invaded.

Of course, Americans were not about to send their sons and daughters
to risk their lives for petroleum products. So George Bush arranged a
hoax, using public relations firm Hill & Knowlton, which has grown
rich on taxpayer money by being most industrious and creative liars!
Hill & Knowlton concocted a monumental fraud in which the daughter of
the Kuwaiti Ambassador to the United States, went on TV pretending to
be a nurse, and related a horror story in which Iraqi troops looted
the incubators from a Kuwaiti hospital, leaving the premature babies
on the cold floor to die. The media, part of the swindle from the
start, never bothered asking why the "nurse" didn't just pick the
babies up and wrap them in blankets or something.

Enraged by the incubator story, Americans supported operation Desert
Storm, which never removed Saddam Hussein from power but which did
take Kuwait's oil off of the market for almost 2 years and limited
Iraq's oil exports to this very day. That our sons and daughters came
home with serious and lingering medical illnesses was apparently not
too great a price to pay for increased oil profits.

Following the victory in Iraq, yet another war appeared to be in the
offering in the mineral rich regions of Bosnia. Yet again, a hoax was
used to create support for military action.

The above photo of Fikret Alic, a Muslim, staring through a barbed
wire fence, was used to "prove" that the Bosnians were running modern
day "Concentration Camps". As the headline of "Belsen 92" indicates,
all possible associations with the Nazi horrors were made to sell the
necessity of sending yet more American troops into someone else's
nation.

But when German Journalists went to Trnopolje, the site of the
supposed Bosnian Concentration Camp. to film a documentary, they
discovered that the photo was a fake! The camp at Trnopolje was not a
concentration camp but a refugee center. Nor was it surrounded by
barbed wire. Careful examination of the original photo revealed that
the photographer had shot the photo through a broken section of fence
surrounding a tool shed. It was the photographer who was on the
inside, shooting out at the refugees.

Once again, Americans had been hoaxed into support of actions they
might otherwise not have agreed with.

While several American Presidents have willingly started wars for
personal purposes, perhaps no President has ever carried it to the
extreme that Bill Clinton has.

Coincident with the expected public statement of Monica Lewinsky
following her testimony, Bill Clinton ordered a cruise missile attack
on Sudan and Afghanistan, claiming to have had irrefutable proof that
bogeyman extraordinaire (and former Afghani ally) Osama Bin Ladin was
creating terrorist chemical weapons there.

Examination of the photos of the debris revealed none of the expected
structures one would find in a laboratory that handled lethal weapons-
grade materials. Assurances from the CIA that they had a positive soil
test for biological weapons fell on their face when it was revealed
that there had been no open soil anywhere near the pre-bombed
facility. Sudan requested that international observers come test the
remains of the factory for any signs of the nerve gas Clinton had
insisted was there. None was found. The Sudanese plant was a harmless
aspirin factory, and the owner has sued for damages.

Later examination of the site hit in Afghanistan revealed it to be a
mosque.

image

Meanwhile, back in Kosovo, stories about genocide and atrocities were
flooding the media (in time to distract from the Sudanese
embarrassments), just as lurid and sensational and as it turns out
often just as fictional as most of William Randolph Hearst's stories
of atrocities against the Cubans.

Again, the government and the media were hoaxing Americans. The above
photo was shown on all the American networks, claiming to be one of
Slobodan Milosovic's Migs, shot down while attacking civilians. Closer
examination (click on the photo) shows it to be stenciled in English!

Like Germany under Chancellor Hitler, there have been events in our
nation which strike fear into the hearts of the citizens, such as the
New York World Trade Tower bombing, the OK City Federal Building, and
the Olympic Park bomb (nicely timed to divert the media from witnesses
to the TWA 800 shoot down). The media has been very quick to blame
such events on "radicals", "subversives", "vast right wing
conspiracies", and other "enemies in our midst", no different than the
lies used by Cicero and Hitler.

But on closer examination, such "domestic terrorist" events do not
appear to be what they are made out to be. The FBI had an informant
inside the World Trade Tower bombers, Emad Salam, file://www.accessone.com/~rivero/POLITICS/OK/wtcbomb.html who offered to
sabotage the bomb. The FBI told him "no". The so-called "hot bed" of
white separatism at Elohim City, occasional home to Tim McVeigh in the
weeks prior to the OK City bombing, was founded and is being run by an
FBI informant!

for larger image

And nobody has ever really explained what this second Ryder truck was
doing in a secret camp half way from Elohim City to Oklahoma City two
weeks before the bombing.

So, here we are today. Like the Romans of Crassus' and Cicero's time,
or the Germans under a newly elected Hitler, we are being warned that
a dangerous enemy threatens us, implacable, invisible, omnipresent,
and invulnerable as long as our government is hamstrung by that silly
old Bill of Rights. Already there have appeared articles debating
whether or not "extraordinary measures" (i.e. torture) are not fully
justified under certain circumstances such as those we are purported
to face.

As was the case in Rome and Germany, the government continues to plead
with the public for an expansion of its power and authority, to "deal
with the crisis".

However, as Casio watch timers are paraded before the cameras, to the
stentorian tones of the talking heads' constant dire warnings, it is
legitimate to question just how real the crises is, and how much is
the result of political machinations by our own leaders.

Are the terrorists really a threat, or just hired actors with bombs
and Casio watches, paid for by Cicero and given brown shirts to wear
by Hitler?

Is terrorism inside the United States really from outside, or is it a
stage managed production, designed to cause Americans to believe they
have no choice but to surrender the Republic and accept the
totalitarian rule of a new emperor, or a new Fuhrer?

Once lost, the Romans never got their Republic back. Once lost, the
Germans never got their Republic back. In both cases, the nation had
to totally collapse before freedom was restored to the people.

Remember that when Crassus tells you that Sparticus approaches.

Remember that when thugs in the streets act in a manner clearly
designed to provoke the public fear.

Remember that when the Reichstagg burns down.



Netking
(10/03/2001; 00:00:03 MDT - Msg ID: 62854)
Top Military Commanders Warn of Larger, Global War
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2001/10/2/222750.shtmlDid we all think that the massive build up of military might from many countries including the US, UK, Russia, Euro zone & Australasia etc was . . . . . all just for Osama & Associates?

The Newsmax story tells that two of America's top former military commanders warn that America could quickly find itself in a global war. The two have unassailable credentials. Adm. Moorer served as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, the nation's highest-ranking military official, and helped bring the Vietnam War to an end. Gen. Singlaub is former chief of staff for U.S. forces in South Korea. In addition to serving as a field commander, he was also assigned to the CIA and is an expert in unconventional warfare.

Both share the same view that the likelihood of a greater war is strong, and fear that if several fronts opened up against the U.S. in hot spots like Taiwan and Korea, the results could be catastrophic for the U.S. "It's not like any war we have been in before, but we have got to have it," Adm Moorer explains.

Moorer and Singlaub say the nature of this war will require several steps, with the first military moves aimed at eliminating terrorist cells. But Moorer believes that the war will only do the job if we go after the nations that support terrorism, including Iraq, Iran and Syria.

"I think the war is going to broaden. I think that the President made it quite clear that this is a pure case of good vs. evil and those who want to live in peace must unite and eliminate those who want to kill one another," Gen. Singlaub said.

He added ominously, "We just have to recognize that it's going to develop into a larger war and there are lots of people and nations involved." In "America on the Brink of Global War," Moorer and Singlaub make several key points, the same ones they would tell the President if they were in the Pentagon today:


Focus on the Likelihood of a Bigger War. Both military commanders insist that while they would have Pentagon strategists working to deal with Osama bin Laden, the Pentagon's main focus should be to prevent and prepare for a major war. Singlaub explains: "We have to be thinking along those lines and not get ourselves committed in one area."

Possible Flashpoints: Taiwan and Korea. Moorer and Singlaub see these as strong possibilities for the outbreak of a larger war. Noting the diminished size of the U.S. military, now 40 percent smaller than it was just ten years ago, a country like China may make a play for Taiwan, while American military resources are so focused in the Mid-east.

Worse, North Korea may launch its long awaited invasion of South Korea. More than 30,000 American troops still sit near the Korean DMZ, and Gen. Singlaub, an expert on Korea, doubts U.S. forces could repel an armored invasion. The U.S. may have to use tactical nuclear weapons to stop an advance, he believes.

Moorer adds: "This is the whole point, if the U.S. focuses so much strength in one area," one or more of America's enemies may seize the opportunity to attack. Oil Kingdoms, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, at Risk. Despite the large U.S. build-up in the Mid-East. Neither commander believes there is little the U.S. could do to stop Saddam Hussein from invading and capturing Kuwait as he did in 1990. A similar threat exists to Saudi Arabia. Singlaub observed that during the Gulf War the U.S. had five divisions in Germany that were quickly moved to the region, with the air and navy support to move them there.

That isn't true today, he said. By the time we mobilize to prevent an Iraqi offensive, it will be "too late."Moorer agrees. He thinks U.S. forces could eventually dislodge Hussein, but it would take much longer and the U.S. could expect heavy casualties this time.


Secure the Panama Canal Now. Both veteran military experts advise the U.S to immediately secure the Panama Canal. Moorer said the U.S. has no troops in Panama now, and we need to make arrangements with the Panamian government to insure there is no interruption of Navy movement between the Atlantic and Pacific. Singlaub notes that any interruption by terrorists, or by the Chinese company that controls the canal, could have catastrophic consequences for U.S. forces in Asia if, say, South korea was invaded. Both commanders said in such a scenario even a matter of days could prove critical in preserving thousands of American lives.

"We cannot afford to lose the most strategic waterway in the world to our enemies," Gen. Singlaub said. . . .View Yesterday's Discussion.

CoBra(too)
(10/03/2001; 07:46:52 MDT - Msg ID: 62855)
Netking - here's an Opinion from the Cafe's Chat -
Ties in pretty neat with your latest post, don't you think?
Sorry for the lenght - no link offered, but it apparently comes fromm Lyndon LaRouche.

Posted by Goldbug:

** This article appears in the Oct. 5, 2001 issue of Executive Intelligence Review.

Putin Judoes The War Script
by Jonathan Tennenbaum and Rachel Douglas


An address by the President of Russia, speaking in German to the German Parliament, the Bundestag, convened in reunified Berlin, would have been an historical milestone at whatever moment it occurred. The speech Vladimir Putin gave there on Sept. 25 became something even more�the offer of a precious opportunity, perhaps the last, to avert the worst catastrophe of modern times. Two weeks to the day after violent attacks on New York and Washington brought the world into a new, acute phase of crisis, Putin's extraordinary intervention changed the axioms of policy, and challenged other world leaders to do likewise.

What he said in Berlin, the Russian President has also bolstered by intense personal diplomacy with other heads of state, by telephone and in person, and by a Sept. 24 formal statement, addressed both to the Russian people and to the United States (published in this section).

In a situation where precipitous military actions, billed as reprisals for Sept. 11, threaten to ignite the infamous "clash of civilizations" from the Middle East and Central Asia, throughout Eurasia, and beyond, a calm but passionate Russian President stepped up before an astonished audience of government officials and parliamentarians in Berlin, and said, in effect: "Dear friends, this is not going to work. Russia will not play this game. The world has changed." At the same time, Putin extended an unmistakable offer to the United States, to drop the rotten geopolitical axioms that locked the world into two world wars and a Cold War in the 20th Century, and to institute a new quality of cooperation among nations, typified by the collaboration of Russia, China and other Asian nations, around the Eurasian Land-Bridge.

The quality of shift proposed by Putin, matches that of U.S. President Ronald Reagan's offer to the Soviet leadership on March 23, 1983, when he announced the Strategic Defense Initiative to replace the dominant, ever more perilous military doctrine of the superpowers, Mutual Assured Destruction. Soviet General Secretary Yuri Andropov's "No" to that offer signed the death warrant for the Soviet empire, and blocked the shift to stable security and healthy economic relations among nations, which could have been made.

In 1983, it was Lyndon LaRouche's conception of war-avoidance, that Reagan put forward and Andropov rejected. Today, Putin offers a war-avoidance approach that the United States and other nations�all those who are under the Anglo-American financial system that's now as shaky as the Soviet economy was in 1983�would reject at their own great peril. It is spelled out in his speech at the Bundestag, the full text of which accompanies this article, and should be read and reread by any person concerned with the survival of humanity at this juncture. The content of Putin's policy coincides, lawfully enough, in three major areas with the strategic perspectives promoted by LaRouche today.

First, Putin explicitly rejects the "clash of civilizations," asserting that there is nothing inevitable about a spread of religious and ethnic warfare in Eurasia, and that among the means to prevent that, "a whole complex of political, educational, and economic measures" should be developed by the world community. Second, Putin is committed to cooperation among Eurasian nations in all areas�economic development, political, and cultural. While the Russian President spoke in Berlin, a Russian deputy minister of railways was in Vienna to present Russia's vision of Eurasian Transport Corridor development, to an international conference of railway officials. Third, Putin expressed with emotion his personal knowledge of the power of German Classical culture, as typifying the best of "extended European civilization"�as the Russian President has put it several times recently. Talking about "Greater Europe," of which Russia is a part, Putin is simultaneously engaged with Russia's great neighbors to the east and south�China, India, and Iran�and thus brings to life Russia's unique identity as a Eurasian nation.

The Context Of Deliberation
Putin did not spell out everything, that one might wish to have been said on the occasion of his speech in the Bundestag. In particular, he did not explicitly address the world financial crisis, which is central. Nor did he explicitly address the gross manipulation of world opinion by the mass media, which reduce all irregular warfare to "terrorism run by Osama bin Laden." But, the nature and the implications of the cooperation Putin has offered come into focus, when we examine those crucial areas which he did not elaborate, but which are raised forcefully by the context in which his speech occurred. That context has been shaped, to a large extent, by the personal role of Lyndon LaRouche, and particularly his dialogue with Russian institutions over the recent period.

Since late 2000 at the latest, a number of leading circles in Russia have come into essential agreement with LaRouche's standpoint on three decisive points:

1. That the world, and most emphatically the United States itself, had already entered, before Sept. 11, the terminal phase of the worst financial, monetary, and economic crisis in modern times. No amount of manipulation, up to and including the launching of war, could possibly save the present financial system from disintegration. This is what LaRouche himself laid out, just two months ago, in an invited speech before the Economic Policy Committee of the Russian State Duma (Parliament). Leading Russian institutions have demonstrated their seriousness on this matter, by initiating measures to "de-dollarize" the economy, to create the option of a new gold-based currency in Russia, and to begin to explore the possibilities of alternative currency systems with other countries.

2. That a global solution to this crisis can only be reached through a new quality of cooperation among sovereign nation-states, centered on the large-scale development policy that LaRouche has identified as the Eurasian Land-Bridge. This means cooperation to create a network of transcontinental infrastructure corridors, combining modern railroads and maglev lines, water and energy systems stretching from Europe across the vast hinterland of Central Asia and Siberia, to the great population centers of East and South Asia. This, too, was a central topic of LaRouche's discussions with leading Russian institutions; and this has become, increasingly, a shared vision among the leaders of Russia, China, India, Malaysia, Iran, and other countries of Asia, which are seeking to join together and with Europe in this kind of development. It is also broadly agreed, that implementation of the Eurasian Land-Bridge policy is inseparable from the creation of new financial, monetary, and trade arrangements, opposed to "free trade," and converging on the creation of a new world monetary system.

3. That a powerful faction of the Anglo-American oligarchy is conducting systematic and escalating warfare against the Eurasian Land-Bridge policy, to the point of fomenting generalized religious and ethnic warfare in Eurasia, in order to prevent the consolidation of an alternative to their present collapsing global system. The Russians have clearly identified this as "the Brzezinski strategy," and Putin pointed to it directly, in his repeated condemnation of the "clash of civilizations."

These points were understood and acknowledged in leading Russian circles prior to Sept. 11. Since then, another dimension of clarity was added: a general consensus, among intelligence professionals in Russia, that the events of Sept. 11 could not have occurred without an active and deliberate role of powerful elements within U.S. institutions themselves; and that LaRouche's characterization of the initiation of a de facto coup process in the United States, is most likely accurate.

Russia's Own Policy
It is no wonder that the Anglo-American press, which triumphantly welcomed Putin's supposed endorsement of the anti-terrorism "crusade" announced by President Bush, has scarcely reported on his Bundestag speech. No doubt, they suspect�and not without reason�that the Russian President, an expert in Japanese martial arts, is in the process of "judoing" the whole operation. The sudden reversal, just 24 hours after Putin's speech, of an expected decision to activate the "common defense" clause of NATO in preparation for a massive military operation against Afghanistan, most likely has to do with Russia's intervention, which had already taken shape before Putin took the podium in Berlin.

After a state visit to Armenia on Sept. 14-15, Putin operated for a week from his working vacation headquarters, at Sochi on the Black Sea. He conducted phone calls with European, Asian, and Central Asian leaders. By no later than Sept. 22, when Putin met for six hours (interrupted only by an hour-long conversation with Bush) with his "force" ministers, the heads of the Defense Ministry and security agencies, he had made a decision. It was evidently determined that Russia did not have the power to prevent U.S. military action in Afghanistan�even though it threatens disastrous consequences for the entire region. Yet, Russia could not ignore or simply acquiesce to U.S. military operations in Central Asia. After all, this is the region of the "Great Game" since the 19th Century, the cockpit for geopolitical designs in which Russia was cast as antagonist.

With the five-point policy announced by Putin on Sept. 24, the Russian leadership walks a fine line with respect to any prospective military operations. Russia joins the new anti-terror front, but on her own terms, and for a price.

In interviews given before his visit to Germany, and in the Sept. 24 national address, Putin offered sympathetic support to the United States in the "battle against evil," while at the same time drawing clear and principled limits. He stated that reason and the principles of international and national law must be upheld; in particular, Russian law forbids the deployment of her military abroad, except under the auspices of the United Nations. Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, as well as Chief of the Armed Forces General Staff Gen. Anatoli Kvashnin during his tour of Central Asia in mid-September, "categorically" ruled out the involvement of Russian troops there. The institutional role of the UN must be upheld, said Putin, especially the UN Security Council. Its permanent members, including Russia and China, must be consulted on any actions.

And, the whole concept of the "clash of civilizations" must be rejected as "wrong and destructive." Putin demanded that the same standard be applied to the years-long insurgency in Chechnya, and for good measure pointed to London as a center of recruitment to the ranks of guerrilla forces and terrorists, demanding that Western governments put a stop to such activities.

Putin and his team thereby aim to contain the worst consequences of the prospective military actions, while at the same time increasing maneuvering room for the grave military-financial-political crisis which is certain to ensue. Without putting the decisive issue of the financial collapse explicitly on the table, Putin has positioned himself in such a way, that as the crash accelerates and efforts to reverse it fail, the weakness of the United States under current policy will be all the more manifest, and the possibilities of organizing an alternative all the greater. It is thus an open-ended flanking maneuver.

Thanks to Putin's intervention, an alternative pathway for policymaking has been opened up, for leading the world away from the precipice, and toward a very different and much brighter future. Whether or not that opportunity will be realized, will depend on the extent to which, very quickly, key individuals and institutions in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere act with the quality of courage and strategic understanding of the world, which until now has been manifested only by Lyndon LaRouche.

In the meantime, one thing is clear. When Putin passionately declared, at a high point of his speech in Berlin, "the Cold War is over!," he spoke not with the intonation of a defeated power, but with the confidence of a great nation. Russia lives, and Putin was demanding an end to the evil British geopolitical doctrine, which gave rise to the Cold War in the first place. **

Galearis
(10/03/2001; 08:01:18 MDT - Msg ID: 62856)
changes in the xau after Oct 8
http://www.phlx.com/news/mm_xau.pdfThings they are a changing for the better....
Pandagold
(10/03/2001; 08:31:09 MDT - Msg ID: 62857)
Outlook for gold in the near term Be aware, but be brave
First let me compliment Tg for his 'last post' (which,if we are not careful the way things are heading, and Bush and his side kick Blair are not restrained) could have a double meaning for many of us 'innocent bystanders').

Now for my main post:-

"................................The recent compression of share prices world-wide in all industries increases the likelihood that gold mining shares will retest their lows of early April 2001, and several major producers may even retreat all the way to their historic nadirs of October 2000. Most surprises are likely to be to the downside. Be patient and don't be too eager to buy until the commercials have shown their heavy hand on the long side, and analysts have once again reached a near consensus of gloom. " (Steve Kaplan "Goldminingoutlook")

As some of you will know, Kaplan (Steve) has been quiet fo many months. He pops up only occasionally when he feels there is something important to say, whereas he once had a daily update.

The Kaplans, I don't know if they are all related, do have their nose deep in the gold 'bag'.

Many times in the past I have disagreed with much of what he has said, and have told him so. However, I am inclined to agree with him on this. I have cautioned my son on this very point as, being young, he is at times quite reckless in his trading.

I have been making money by playing both ways, the only way when something is being 'held' (read my post two or three postings back. I have felt all along that gold will NOT make its real break on the upside until it appears the last goldbug is lying on its (his/hers) back with its feet in the air - even though its feet might be still wiggling a little).

The rejection of GATA's claims by the US court, with some trumped up ruling, plus military action breaking out (any time now) and gold not moving much should be the clincher.

Then it will lie dormant ( a river bed with the bottom showing and the river a mere trickle) for some time. This will be the time to throw in your all.

But don't forget the words of (I believe) Bernie Baruch "I make my money in the markets by NOT trying to buy right at the bottom, and sell right at the top."

The dip, when it comes won't be all that much - it can't be, it will just seem that way.

Don't hold back too long trying to catch the bottom, and don't be put off by all the negative sentiment that will abound - and I assure you, there will be plenty. It'll probably even get to Michael, if he hasn't had his anti-gloom jabs
USAGOLD
(10/03/2001; 08:37:51 MDT - Msg ID: 62858)
Today's Commentary: Disappearing Real Rate of Return Drives Investors Toward Gold
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.htmlIn Brief: Gold is tracking higher this morning after a brief respite yesterday at the $290 level. Stocks are tumbling. The gold market appears to be reacting to the shrinking real rate of return on dollar-based investments including stocks, bonds and bank deposits -- as of the moment a little talked about consequence of yesterday's .5% rate cut.

Investors seem to be seeking places to park investment funds and gold has attracted much of that interest for a number of reasons not the least of which being it is the one primary portfolio holding which has yet to be driven through the roof by hot investment capital. More than any other comment made by buyers, we hear the observation that gold is undervalued and "overdue." Gold coin and bullion sales are running hot according to various press reports as investors scramble to balance portfolios in the wake of the equities market meltdowns and the ever-shrinking rate of return on savings.

Buying continues to be led by Eastern interests particularly Japanese investors who are probably reacting to problems in Japan's banking system in addition to incipient problems with the dollar. Americans are also buying substantial amounts of the yellow metal. As the real rate of return on dollar-based investment shrinks, we can expect capital movements to continue out of the dollar globally and into the euro and gold.

UBS Warburg adds "with Western politicians making more conspicuous comments about military action against the Taliban, it is too soon to turn negative on gold and we consider that a further move lower presents an attractive entry opportunity."

That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters.

Please go through the links and snippets below for a more complete picture of gold market expectations. . . . MK . . . . ..MORE. . . .

To read the rest of today's report, we inite you to join us at our private access COMMENTARY & REVIEW page. (A simple, one-time registration is required.)

I would like to invite anyone who has an interest in gold to go to the link provided to request an information packet. That way you will be sure to receive our first News & Views: A Quarterly Review of Forcasts, Commentary and Analsysis on the Economy and Precious Metals along with access to our client only Commentary & Review page.

Note: The latest News & Views -- the first edition of our new 32-page quarterly -- is now hitting mail boxes in the United States and also available to our international clientele by pdf-download. It features a discussion on systemic risk titled "Why Gold, Why Now." Some of you are familiar with this article (for which we have had a large of number of reprint requests), but if you aren't, I think you will agree that it addresses current client concerns in very direct and timely manner. American prospective clients can receive a hard-copy by going to the link above.

Find out the who, what, when , where, why and how of gold ownership!

------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pandagold
(10/03/2001; 08:51:01 MDT - Msg ID: 62859)
'Winner takes all"
May I add also compliments to CoBra(too) #62855 and Netking #62854. They are more or less how I see things on the political front.

What really gets to me is that there are politicians out there who, I feel, at heart are decent men. I wonder what (whose) grip they are in that they do not speak out against those that would lead us all down this terrible road.

Young men, and women, in uniform, and others including children not in uniform are alive at this moment and looking forward to a future, soon that future will be gone for them, forever. Someone is playing a game - winner takes all,with their lives.
BR549
(10/03/2001; 08:54:49 MDT - Msg ID: 62860)
Bush has emphasized cutting off terrorists' funding as one battle in the ``war on terrorism'' he declared after hijackers commandeered four commercial airplanes Sept. 11 and crashed them into the World Trade Center, Pentagon, and a Pennsylvania field. More than 6,000 people died.
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?T=uspolitics_news.ht&s=AO7sEJBNrVS5TLiB0
"Washington, Oct. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Dozens more names may soon be added to the list of 27 people and groups who President George W. Bush accused of financing terrorism and whose assets were frozen by the U.S. and its allies, a senior administration official said.

As many as 50 people and organizations are being evaluated for possible terrorist links by a U.S. Treasury Department-led task force, which is considering information from the Central Intelligence Agency, FBI, State Department, and foreign governments.

How many of those 50 will find their assets frozen over the next few weeks will be determined once the task force assesses whether information about terrorist links gives the U.S. reasonable cause to act, the official said.

``I made it clear that part of winning the war against terror would be to cut off these evil people's money,'' Bush told employees of the Federal Emergency Management Agency on Monday. "


The terrorists checks are bouncing and their credit cards are max'd out as the economic ``war on terrorism'' heats up. The other war is coming as Tony Blair says to the Taliban "give up the terrorists or be prepared give up power-it's your choice"

Get your gold now as the Dec 01 futures are up $1.50 so far today.

BR549
ORO
(10/03/2001; 09:32:59 MDT - Msg ID: 62861)
Usul, Gresham - Prerequisites of Sir Gresham's law, more
http://www.columbia.edu/~ram15/grash.htmlFrom the above link

"In the Renaissance, John Hales (d. 1571) is probably the first writer to elaborate on the proposition, assuming he was the author of A discourse on the Common Weal of this Realm of England. This rich work contains the following explicit statement of Gresham's Law::


"Was there not made PROCLAMATIONS that the olde coyne, specially of golde, SHOULD NOT BE CURRENT HERE ABOVE SUCH A PRICE: was not that the rediest way to dryve away our golde from us. Everything will go where it is most esteemed, and therefore our treasure went over in heapes."(14) "


Hales states the prerequisite of par imposed by government fiat (in caps) for the driving out of good coin by bad. Otherwise, it is the other way around: good money drives out the bad.

Hales indicates some of the mechanisms by which this law comes to pass - since the par value would only be set by law below the good coin's free market value (otherwise it would trade at that value), good coin would move abroad where it may purchase more. Barring this possibility due to isolation or capital controls, the good coin would be hoarded (as Mundell explains later).


It must be understood, therefore, that paper gold which we suspect to be "bad money" is held at par by some "fiat" (if not then it is not "bad money" but trading at a free market value). The only way for par to be maintained is to retain a supply of gold to the market at the "paper price". This gold had come from private accounts backed by EMU central bank's promise of injecting physical gold into the market (which FOA claims are a false promise intended to create a trap for Anglo banking institutions).

The "paper gold" is used by inflation concientious to hedge their currency denominated intvestments through the debt markets and to a more minor extent to hedge equities. Here it should be obvious that the holding of gold has an opportunity cost beyond direct costs of physical loss risk, insurance, and storage. That is the cost of not participating in the cash flows generated by economic investments through debt contracts or equities. It is only when the prospects of these real returns forgone by holding gold fall well below the market preference of the bulk of investors that physical gold becomes the desired holding, particularly over debt contracts.


As to the level of returns, it should be noted that ROA (return on assets) in the SP 500 averaged 11%, and in the smaller cap SP indices it was about 10% (and has been approximately at that level for 10 years).

The "growth" portion of the indices was returning 18-21% internally at the bubble peak and the "value" portion gave 7.5-8%, now the growth portions are returning at the 13-15% range and the value portions are at 5.5%. Meaning that the growth businesses would borrow below the 15% mark, and the value businesses would lend above the 5.5% (they would not lend below this rate because they can obtain a better return by internal reinvestment, where their understanding of business is better). Thus the funding source requires a minimum nominal return of 5.5% (down from 7.5%) and the fund users are willing to pay up to 12% actual return.
http://www.barra.com/research/fundamentals.asp

Bonds pay capital gains as their maturity approaches and they become money market instruments - thus a five year 6% bond actually provides a 9.5% return as it approaches maturity at the money market rate of 3%, and a 7.5% five year gives a 12.5% total return at that same rate. Money markets, where businesses finance liquid assets like inventory rather than long term investments (financed through bonds) provide the business with the choice of holding greater inventory and paying interest, or reducing inventory and receiving interest. Thus money market rates relate to inventory behavior of companies set on liquidating at a lower price now and lending, vs. those set on building inventories in expectation of a better near future price for them than currently available. If rates are low, more inventory would be built up, margins improve and prices would firm, if too high, inventory would deplete and prices fall, taking margins down with them. Accordingly, internal business investment decisions are made considering expected future pricing as well as expected future short term interest rates along with current inventory levels and current short rates, and scheduled liability payments. When orders are unexpectedly cancelled and product is already produced, forced liquidation rules the day as liabilities must be met, resulting in lower prices than otherwise would have been the case, thus pulling down margins relative to plans. If preceding error was sufficiently great, there may be no particular short interest rate which would prompt a company to build inventory as the buyers who cancelled orders look to hold short term money, thus supplying cash into the money markets while there are no takers for it on the borrowing side. This effect is seen in the steep drop in non-fi commercial paper (blue line on chart at bottom of the following link) despite the extreme drop in CP rates (above prior chart at link). http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/cp/

By the way, financial CP is used in interest rate arbitrage between short term and log term debt and obtains funding either from prior arbitrage from foreign banks with lower interest rates (Japan), or from cash supplied (directly or through employees) by business liquidation of inventory due to liquidity (meeting liabilities - like employee pay) or due to fears of worse pricing in the future.

The monetary authority is forever blind to these effects and their interaction with other factors in the money market because they relate to expectations of current pricing vs. near future pricing of myrriad products rather than to actual past prices. Thus error is inherent in all monetary authority decisions on short term interest rates, and they don't show up until some time after the decisions pegging them at any particular level. Thus non-fi CP borrowers were willing to pay far more than the Fed funds rate in spring 2000 (by up to 90 BP more rather than the normal +/-10 BP) but lagged behind non-fi CP rates dropping with 20 BP too high a rate. Thus the Fed allowed a bubble going into spring 2000, and not only punctured the baloon that summer but continued pressing on it all the way down from Summer 2000 to date.


Returning to the issue of returns on alternatives to gold holdings, I should point out that in addition to the above one needs to consider the general price level changes to find "real return" rates, and conditions outside the US, where things got more out of hand during bubble days in Europe. There is also the speculative momentum effect and the monetary supply and demand balance situation, which was very tight in the dollar ex US and has turned from rather tight to very tight within the US in 2000, and has only gotten to balance the week of the terrorist attack with the temporary cash injections from the Fed. The Fed is taking those back, so that the balance should turn negative again in the end Sep data. No sign of improvement in Asia, and no sign of renegotiation of European dollar contracts into euro, thus dollar demand in the EMU remains far above supply from exports, and is coming from repatriation of portfolios. Since European investors have a knack for selling out of the US at or near bottoms, there is a good chance of there being at least a temporary one at hand. Watch the treasury yields for indications of further drops.


As to posted commentary from the neo-communist LaRouche and the incompetent kleptocrats in StPetersburg and Moscow, I would very much doubt that either can have any substantial economic insight into the nature of the currency world and gold dynamics. I can applaud the "gold efforts", and on the other hand I can point to Mahatir and Putin spitting out "ANOTHERisms" about the destruction of the dollar and the transition to euro use, and more of the same from their lip servicing economists. For my part, I would point to my boring old observation that fiat currencies lose value both in an inflation and in a deflation as inflating monies "chase the same goods" and deflating ones eliminate debt demand for the money already existing. The ECB had not understood that the deflationary aspect of their policy causes prices to rise. Both the Fed and the ECB had pointed out that regulatory and tax reforms are needed in order to maintain investment growth in the West, since both high taxes on investment profits and regulations lower the return on investment. So far, the governments of the EU center are trying to finagle out of existing commitments to both reforms and renegotiate their deficit spending caps far upwards. EU center governments still insist on retaining substantial stakes in large financial and industrial firms, thus preventing the possibility of their conducting rational investments.

The US Federal Bureaucracy is still expecting their latest set of spectacular failures to bring them the windfall in authority and budgets that they could not get with Klintoon at the head and with a Republican congress. The bureaucrats are trying to push a panicky congress and a squeezed corporate sector into massive economic government interventions and power grabs to eliminate the few scraps left of the constitutional limits on them. In a very short while the counter motion should start and Robert Reich's happy (but absurd) call for Keynesian "stimulus" and the revival of "big government" (which he wholeheartedly supports). Of course, every penny of spending by the government eliminates resources from consumers and businesses, thus "fiscal stimulus" is an oxymoron - government spending is a millstone on the economy's neck, not a "stimulus".



The post from tg implies that the fact of Bin Laden's and the Taliban's being our former allies, trained and funded by the US Britain and Saudi "allies" through Pakistan up to 1990 indicates that the CIA and FBI would have sufficient knowledge of their activities to have stopped the plans if they wanted to. While the terrorist's intentions are as malevolent as the media portrays, the actions could not have been at all unpredictable or unknown to "authorities". It then stands to reason that they decided not to stop them. The reason? In order to claim that an "open society is defenseless" against terrorism, and thus the Federales need to install a police state to track everyone's wherabouts, to detain people without proof of wrongdoing and without judicial review, to look into everyone's belongings, to put Federal forces in airports, to scan crowds for faces, to introduce into court evidence gathered by criminal action of other governments and much more.

These agendas were negotiated at length by the Federales over the last decade with European bureaucrats seeking the same powers against their own people. The bottom line is that they feared loss of control over their own people, not over terrorists, whom they have tracked well since the 70s. The financial front, where bank secrecy had allowed many to hide assets from the tax man without fear of being found out, the aim of the OECD and the FATF has allways been to allow seizure of accounts on political and bureaucratic whim in order to allow governments the power to punish critics without trial, and in order to allow politicians and civil servants to extract protection money from the wealthy, big and small by threatening the "freezing" of assets.

Most of all, the promotion of crisis is intended to assure governments of their ability to tax their people in a world without financial borders and where value comes from ideas rather than heavy equipment that is easy to find and control. The result of successful breaching of bank secrecy will not result in the expected windfall of taxes by over-leveraged Western governments, it will cause the mass exodus of the market from official channels. All securities will be unregistered, banking will become "free banking" without registration, names, lisence, regulation. The taxing power of the state will disappear altogether as financial and economic activity moves underground in bulk, where there is no paper or electronic trail.

The Wall Street faction supporting government interventionism and surveillance in the financial markets is trying to make financial privacy a uniquely American advantage. They are doing so by fiercely attacking the small "tax havens" that had grown into a trillion dollar industry. The US government and the EU members are doing so in order to attempt taxation and control. The more sophisticated Wall Streeters are after the financial privacy business that these actions are expected to drain from the "tax havens". Local US law in several states makes it possible to create anonymous corporations. So far, I see no attempt to attack these jurisdictions.

Don't think for a second that the financial dealings of terrorists would in any way be affected by these asset "freezings", and don't expect the assets frozen already to be anything but loosely related to these groups. All of the funds captured would be of people and organizations who did business with the terrorists unknowingly, or had pockets of subversion. A charity that had is widely supported in the Islamic world for funding religious education and welfare might have a minor portion of its activities and funds subverted to terrorist use unbenknownst to most of its donors and its own management, but the governments would freeze the entire charity's assets while not doing the hard work of finding the individual culprits who funded and aided the terrorists. The terrorists use the informal networks of overseas Chinese Fei-ch�ien and Indian Hawala, along with traditional Western private banking, italian mafia banks, Russian mafia banking, South American and Thai drug money trade systems, etc.. All of which trade assets through normal businesses where ownership of assets and cashflows are hidden and nearly completely unrecorded. Unlike the centralized credit based clearing systems of the official banking sectors, the unofficial banking systems are cash based and work entirely on the basis of broadly distributed posession of actual assets and the transfer of claims to its ownership on a bearer basis. Without regulatory burdens and without credit checks and allocations, the system is far more robust and cheaper to run than the official banking system.

Mr Gresham
(10/03/2001; 09:48:40 MDT - Msg ID: 62862)
Contrary Investor
http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htmI click in to find a long, juicy Oro read ahead of me! Yesssss! (Just when clients are banging on my phone to actually produce some work, sheesh!)

Contrary Investor fans, here's this month's free overview of the economy and markets.
Gold Trail Update
(10/03/2001; 10:21:27 MDT - Msg ID: 62863)
The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated
The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.
uponroof
(10/03/2001; 11:06:01 MDT - Msg ID: 62864)
"..For that reason, intelligent people will always hold some gold as an insurance policy against the lies, the ignorance and cowardice of central bankers..." Richard Russell
Tidbits from The Dow Theory Letter 10/02/01Question: Russell, every nation is sinking into recession, but at the same time every nation is trying to reinflate its economy. Central banks around the world are bringing their rates down and trying to bring their currencies down so the can enjoy a competitive advantage. Why isn't gold booming, and what do you make of all this?

Answer: I see a huge but silent battle going on between the wishes of governments and the power of the primary bear trend.

There's no question but that governments want to reinflate. Look at our Fed. It's frantic to "get things going again." Today's reduction in rates will the ninth in a row. They're not afraid of inflation. In fact, I think the Fed would like some inflation rather than what we're getting today.

The yield on the 10 year T-note today was 4.51%. The yield on the 10 year TIPS was 3.11%. The differential was 1.40, a new low. The bond market is saying that our future is disinflation and maybe even deflation.

The primary trend of the market and the economy is DOWN. The bear is intent on correcting the excesses of the preceding bull market. But Mr. Greenspan and the Fed are intent on denying the bear. So far, the bear is winning. The Fed can't understand why. Greenspan and the Fed don't subscribe to the tenets of Dow Theory. But Dow Theory will be around long after Greenspan and his various Fed governors are footnotes in the monetary history of the US.

Question: What do you make of the current stock market situation?

Answer: The market, as I've been saying, looks oversold. And it's been trying to rally. But one vital ingredient is missing. And that's the panic action that almost always appears near or at the end of a major decline.

As of now, there's been no panic action. I've outlined all the other bottoming indications,and no question about it -- they are there. But that missing panic action sticks in my mind. I've never seen a decline of this size and extent without a panic somewhere along the line. For that reason, I say "leave this market alone. Let the traders play with it. The decline has an 'unfinished' look about it." And that's the way I see it.

Question: What about gold?

Answer: Gold is caught between the two powerful forces. Gold has been creeping up on the basis of the Fed's creating new multi-billions of dollars of new money. Gold has also been creeping up on the basis of competitive devaluations.

But gold's progress has been braked by the deflationary forces of the primary bear market.

Gold doesn't need the backing of some central bank. Gold has its own intrinsic value, it's anonymous, it's beholden to no one. That's it's true value, the fact that it's pure money, despite the wishes and machinations of politicians. But that isn't enough to send gold sky-high. Only a flight from paper money will do that.

In a deflationary environment, with people still accepting paper as money, gold can do no more than creep higher. Still, gold represents insurance against the stupidity of politicians and inflation-minded central banks. For that reason, intelligent people will always hold some gold as an insurance policy against the lies, the ignorance and cowardice of central bankers.
*******************************************

Pandagold-thanks for your well thought out scenario on POG.
(10/3/01; 08:31:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 62857)
Outlook for gold in the near term Be aware, but be brave.

Well thought out and reasoned. I can't say I agree entirely, but I do appreciate your logic and willingness to stick your neck out. Thanks.


Christian
(10/03/2001; 11:09:59 MDT - Msg ID: 62865)
What can we the people do?
Willing to pay for useful information... The problem is, credit hangover makes it impossible for most people to recover. You can only re-finance your debts so many times before the banks say no. Many people have borrowed money against their house to be in the stock market. Now that is worth much less then what they paid for it. Many retirees have savings accounts interest income that is being reduced while their property taxes and cost of living increases. ALL MONEY in our system is debt money. There is no other source of money except to borrow it into existence. How in the world can debt be retired with debt dollars???? How can this credit hangover be reduced???? In our debt money system income can not be dollarized except by becoming more debt. IF, if, however, the dollars issued were non-debt, then only do I see a way out. But the sad fact is that we have not been utilizing any such source. At least not we the people have not. However the hedge funds have by leasing gold or silver. There is a reason why paper gold and silver issued through the LBMA has encumbered all physical gold in and above ground. There is a reason why our gold reserves went from reserves to custodial to deep storage. Deep storage gold is gold not yet found. Only earnings can retire debt and therefore they rate attention as a sort of negative debt. But in our system earnings (income) cannot be dollarized except by becoming more debt. There is no other solution then to issue dollars that are non-debt or what I think will happen is negative interest rates. I think we will enter a new financial sphere where banks will loan people bad money and pay the borrower interest to do so in order to turn that bad money into good money. After all money is digital information. The current monetary system is being turned into an instrument of surveillance and control by the FED who is using the government to do the surveillance and controll. -- I need a loan where I get paid an interest rate to borrow. Where do I apply???? How can people with a credit hangover reduce that hangover by borrowing? Where can retirees invest where the principal is secure and still earn 6% without having to tie it up for long periods of time?
site steward
(10/03/2001; 11:33:55 MDT - Msg ID: 62866)
Nobel Prize laureate Dr. Robert Mundell at USAGOLD
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/MundellGresham.htmlFor those who were not aware, just down the hallway (second door on the right) the good Doctor was kind enough to share his thoughts on Gresham's Law with us here at USAGOLD. He's been there since early July!

Just follow the URL above to visit the professor on stage at USAGOLD's "Gilded Opinion".

(He also has another talk at the Gilded Opinion. Can you find it?)

R.
Cavan Man
(10/03/2001; 11:40:35 MDT - Msg ID: 62867)
uponroof
Can you explain how the market is oversold with equities still selling (not all, granted) at rather pricey valuations? I don't understand Mr. Russel's view on this. THKS
Old Yeller
(10/03/2001; 12:03:25 MDT - Msg ID: 62868)
ORO,you are...

Like a beacon'shining through the swirling mists of various manufactured fogs.Your thoughts on the current proceeding and distortions are much appreciated.

I've been waiting,off to read again.
uponroof
(10/03/2001; 12:11:55 MDT - Msg ID: 62869)
cavan man
cavan man

"...The market, as I've been saying, looks oversold. And it's been trying to rally. But one vital ingredient is missing. And that's the panic action that almost always appears near or at the end of a major decline..."

As he says, there being a missing 'ingredient', equates to a continuation of selling. Therefore he cannot be saying it's oversold.

I believe Russell is making a point about the recent accellerated fall from 911. 'Oversold' from that date which relates to a single unusual external event. The disclaimer about a 'missing ingredient' which will signal the end, referrs to the market in general bull/bear terms.

IMHO 'oversold' is an appearance of short term conditions, not long term reality.
Cavan Man
(10/03/2001; 12:14:22 MDT - Msg ID: 62870)
ORO
What is the prudent asset allocation model at this juncture?
Netking
(10/03/2001; 12:28:19 MDT - Msg ID: 62871)
CCCAC seeks commem restraint - Supports Sept. 11 coin program, but voices concerns
http://207.86.23.52/news/073001/news-6.aspMain snippets:
A commemorative coin program with one or more coins to honor those killed in the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on New York City and Washington, D.C., is supported by the Citizens Commemorative Coin Advisory Committee as long as the initiative is not hurried through the legislative process and the advice of the CCCAC and Commission of Fine Arts is sought, says CCCAC Chairman Elsie Sterling Howard.

The opportunity exists for mintage levels to be abandoned in favor of the U.S. Mint striking coins to order for a program expected to receive wide public support, and not just the backing of the numismatic community, Howard told Coin World. Launching of a third commemorative coin program with issues dated 2001 also could draw away support for one or both of the two coin programs already approved by Congress for 2002, . . . .

Howard said it was her understanding that Engel's proposal calls for a 2001-dated issue, with a silver dollar and copper-nickel clad half dollar, bearing a depiction of the Twin Towers of New York's World Trade Center on the reverse and the Pentagon on the obverse. The towers collapsed after being struck by passenger-filled jet airliners used by terrorists as missiles. The Pentagon was heavily damaged in a similar, separate attack. It is not known whether the discussions have included a thematic commemoration to include those who died in the crash of a terrorist-piloted jetliner in Pennsylvania . . . .

http://www.coinworld.com/news/101501/News-1.asp
-----------------------------------------------------------
The Numbers:

*** The Mint will also be challenged to procure sufficient precious metals, especially for the silver issues, since the Mint's silver reserves from the National Defense Stockpile are nearing depletion. The stockpile silver, whose levels have been withheld by Mint officials, is designated as the source for the 2002 commemorative coins as well as the silver American Eagles.

The draft language for the World Trade Center/Pentagon coins designates the silver can come from domestic sources, realizing the gravity of the Mint's reserves. The stockpile silver is also being eyed as the source for metal for any additional American Buffalo silver dollars, should Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill approve recommendations to as much as double (only double? . . . demand may necessitate more - Netking) the original 500,000 mintage of silver dollars, which sold out in two weeks. . . ."
------------------------------------------------------------
Netking: > The Buffalo coins sold out in two weeks.(per link below)
http://207.86.23.52/news/070901/news-3.asp

Just how many of the World Trade Center/Pentagon coins will they need to produce? The demand will be simply massive from every American, whether they were affected or not.

Question(rhetorical); Can they have a situation where they mint say 1,000,000 coins & turn many away with: "sorry folks we've run out with this issue, maybe next time" . . . I don't think so for one minute!

WHEN Paul O'Neill gives the go ahead for this that then as they say in air travel becomes the point of NO return . . . Good luck Paul!
- Netking
Netking
(10/03/2001; 12:39:19 MDT - Msg ID: 62872)
'US called off first attacks' - Cold feet by some key Arab coalition members?
http://www.thisislondon.com/dynamic/news/story.html?in_review_id=462228∈_review_text_id=414574'This is London' reorts in part as follows:

The United States and Britain yesterday called off military strikes against terrorist targets in Afghanistan at the last minute . . . .

Washington officials say today that a severe attack of last-minute cold feet by some key Arab members of the coalition caused President Bush to postpone the operation.

The waverers are Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan and Oman, and US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is embarking on an urgent mission today to strengthen nerves in these countries.

Prime Minister Tony Blair is also about to undertake a hasty visit to the region. Saudi Arabia's support is especially vital, because Allied aircraft and commanders need its base facilities.

Two senior US officials have told reporters that until yesterday the Saudis were firm in their offer to provide assistance for strikes, including use of a state-of-the-art command centre at the Prince Royal Sultan Air Force Base.

Then the situation changed. One US official told Knight Newspapers: "That is no longer true. We fear there is something deeper here. . . . "
The Stranger
(10/03/2001; 12:59:27 MDT - Msg ID: 62873)
First Strikes Called Off
http://www.thisislondon.com/dynamic/news/story.html?in_review_id=462228∈_review_text_id=414574First we had to change the name of the "war", because Muslims were offended. Now we have called off the first strikes and sent Rumsfeld in to talk to our Muslim "friends" because they are getting cold feet. Apparently, they balk at joining any action taken against other Muslims if doing so means aligning themselves with infidels.

So far, there have been 13,000 casualties inflicted by the other side, and the only U.S. response has been to build coalitions and close bank accounts.

Are outraged Americans rioting in the streets? No.

But outraged Muslims are. Go figure.

William F. Buckley said in an opinion piece today, "We have now Islam to deal with. We do not need to make the point that its political and economic record is miserable, that only one of 18 Muslim states (Turkey) is democratically governed. There are those who are willing to advertise the individual hypocrisies. A spokesman from the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam party, while calling on his faithful to overthrow the government of Pakistan for the sin of maintaining equable relations with the United States, sends his own two sons to the United States to school. The Taliban has taken unmarried women detected in pregnancy and buried them to neck level before execution. Where is Islamic condemnation of such practices? For that matter, where is condemnation of Saudis chopping pickpockets' hands off?" (See http://www.townhall.com/columnists/wfbuckley/wfb20011003.shtml)

Yet, the super-sensitive American media have now quit using the word "muslim" in front of the word "terrorist". They've replaced it with the word "suspected". (Can you imagine where the world might be today if our father's had referred to those who bombed Pearl Harbor as the "suspected bombers"?)

The point isn't to denigrate Muslims here. But trying to separate the role of Islam from the conduct of these barbarians is as naive as it is dangerous. There simply is no way to fight a politically correct war, especially when your opponent is one bereft of human kindness. The sooner we realize it, the more lives will ultimately be saved.

Bush said it best when he said that other countries will have to choose. They are either with us, or they are with the terrorists. It grieves me to say it, Mr. President, but so far, it appears the ones we need most are with the terrorists. The only question now is, did you really mean to go to WAR?

GOLD, now more than ever!





Henri
(10/03/2001; 13:09:15 MDT - Msg ID: 62874)
ORO, Christian...La Roach etc.
ORO, #62861
La Rouch has been and apparently still is an advocate of the institution of a new Bretton Woods agreement similar to the old BW set-up. I did not get the impression that he was on the same wavelength as Another or FOA as to the future course of monetary events. The degree to which his promoters have sunken in an attempt to couch Putin's address as an outfall of LaRouche's speech and discussions in Russia and no less than claiming him to be the mastermind behind Putin's alleged offering is despicable.

I'm not convinced that La Rouche's discussions in Russia were anything more than of casual interest to the Russians as to what he had in mind with this new BW thing. He had his shot and has apparently failed miserably.

Putin's alleged speech to the German parliment however, if a factual translation was provided may actually be behind the recent recalcitrance of the Islamic countries mentioned to pause in the support of American attacks against the Taliban and supply of weaponry to the northern Afgan alliance. One can only guess...time will tell. Yes they are kleptocrats and used to only implementing systems of population management that they know can be manipulated to their advantage, but is the US gov. any different in this regard?

Christian, Now you are coming around to my way of thinking. However, are not negative interest "loans" of debt money the next best thing to the issuance of non-debt money? In an atmosphere of negative real returns on investments aren't loans of debt capital the same thing as a negative interest loan? We are already at the threshold my friend. Only the continual and accellerated issuance of US fiat is keeping market forces from inflicting the necessary recession/depression of which the necessary deflation would result. One cannot inflate indefinitely without sufferance of consequence. The longer it is put off the worse it will be.

After all, one cannot loan even non-debt money without incurring a debt, can one?
Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD
(10/03/2001; 13:29:53 MDT - Msg ID: 62875)
Hard assets... Easy access! Don't be fooled by inflatable paper substitutes!
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

sovereigns
Gold Sovereigns Today!

Because you haven't heard the phrase "strong dollar policy" for awhile.

While the Treasury Department and Administration remains mum on the issue, the latest rate cut (to 2.5%) by the Federal Reserve tells the score loud and clear. And given the dollar's legacy position as a reserve asset throughout the world, these are the things that financial crisis and hyperinflations are made of.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

ORO
(10/03/2001; 14:45:15 MDT - Msg ID: 62876)
Cavan Man and uponroof - valuations
While many large cap stocks are still trading at "nose bleed" P/E, and many are expected to show losses for Q3 and Q4, thus having a price to loss ratio, the cash flow to total enterprise value (market value + debt) is not at all as bad. The problem is that GAAP earnings are meaningless over short and intermediate time frames of one quarter to one year and not particularly worthwhile over 3-4 year horizons. The main problem is the existence of non cash costs and revenues such as "deferred revenue" depreciation, etc.. Furthermore, GAAP does not allow capitalization of R&D and marketing, which are investments no different in purpose and value from physical assets. The appartment building has value only because of the rent it can generate, otherwise it might as well be a pile of rubble. The car maker that has facillities producing cars at a loss and no prospects of upgrading their efficiency is holding scrap iron in a warehouse, not a capital asset, yet GAAP would record a value for it. GAAP would also record no value for a fully depreciated item still useful after its planned life has been exceeded. Again, a completely obsolete computer that is two years old is capitalized with 3 years left for depreciation, though it is simply trash. While the expense of the latter computer was only partially recognized when it was made as the purchase appeared both as an asset and an expenditure on the books, its aftermarket value had fallen to 1/4 of the initial value no more than a few months later, but the asset depreciation proceeds according to the formulas of the GAAP.

What the market has learned to do long ago is to discard all of the accounting mumbo jumbo in order to focus on actual business cash flow expectations on the one hand, and the returns expected on investments currently being made. As the internet and telco bubble clearly shows, errors can be quite large in the difference between expected returns and those that actually materialize once the investment is in place. Part of the problem is that the investment must be made before the product it produces is sold, but prices can only be determined once the productive capacity is in place and when product supply is in place - thus a veritable consensus on the high returns the internet should have provided based on near past experience failed to see the effect on internet product prices of an avalanche of supply that came as capacity came online. Furthermore, an efficiency equally shared among all market participants in an industry does not improve profits but lowers costs to consumers while raising compensation of employees. Thus the returns expected of the investments do not materialize. During the internet bubble, companies spending on IP infrastructure were punished for their expenditure by the markets as they discounted the probability of the companies ever seeing a profit from it. On the other hand, various unique business schemes from Amazon and Priceline to web hosting, design, and connectivity firms were thought to have promising business models and no competition. This was not the case, as costs spiralled out of control with the bidding war for internet and network experts, while multiple businesses were challanged by older industry players coming up with competing, if different, products. While the priceline and other business models were put on line quickly in order to capture a premium price for their service or other products, the actual fine tuning of the business model was never done. Costs were not squeezed out, negative customer interactions and experiences were never addressed, and the result was failure as competitors entered and costs were pushed upwards.


It is inherent in the process of implementing a new set of technologies that these phenomena would happen to some extent. If one company in an industry installs a system that saves it 15% in costs, they can underbid their competition by - say 5% in order to obtain the business. If the competitor sees it coming because the system sales man comes to him too, he will install the same system and be able to reduce his costs. But all the while, the demand for the experts that run the new technology rises dramatically, raising the costs while product prices are falling. The supplier of the technology system also suffers from the dearth of skilled experts which is hampering his expansion, as they go on the job roulette. An independent networking guy I know went from earning $100k on $200k of equipment and software installed per year in 97-8, to earning $300k on installation of $200k-$250k. Many of the businesses he worked with can't afford him anymore and have stopped upgrading altogether. The software and hardware makers suffer from the bids their employees got from businesses trying to use the new systems just as this same problem caused the businesses to reduce orders. The only solution to this kind of problem is to let more people gain these skills with time and let the those already skilled move from the software and hardware producers to the service and customer businesses where they are needed more while the pay from the technology producers is reduced and the pay by the users stabilizes or rises more slowly, perhaps dropping at some future point. The geographical areas where the tech producer's employees created booms will suffer as many of them and many of those that planned on coming there move to where the tech users are - i.e. practically everywhere.




For some reference, here are a couple of the biggest companies' cash flow situations relative to debt and market capitalization (EV= enterprise value) and to Price to earnings

EV / CF P / E P / E next year
12.6 23.0 10.7 PHILIP MORRIS COS INC
23.1 41.4 21.8 BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB CO
30.1 49.1 25.9 COCA COLA CO
12.5 30.8 29.6 INTEL CORP
48.9 (72.3) 22.5 AOL TIME WARNER INC
11.6 45.6 16.6 VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS
20.2 36.2 19.8 MERCK & CO INC
10.5 31.8 18.3 SBC COMMUNICATIONS INC
14.7 33.4 18.5 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHS
25.5 40.7 25.2 JOHNSON & JOHNSON
31.0 99.7 22.7 AMERICAN INTL GROUP INC
12.0 206.7 12.5 CITIGROUP INC
26.6 52.7 30 WAL MART STORES INC
36.4 55.5 26.1 PFIZER INC
11.1 27.0 18.3 EXXON MOBIL CORP
32.0 44.4 25.2 MICROSOFT CORP
28.1 48.0 23.3 GENERAL ELEC CO

It is easy to see that the P/E is misleading. But cash flow is also misleading because it includes charges for fresh investments and R&D, while not recognizing any of the revenue, let alone profits they will produce. MSFT, for example, has to charge out the whole of its R&D efforts though they are only related to future software sales, not to current sales.

Looking at gross margins, which don't include management and investment activities (including R&D and capital expenditure), some things don't look so expensive:

EV / Op CF EV / GM P / GM
9.3 3.6 3.1 PHILIP MORRIS COS INC
20.7 8.4 8.3 BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB CO
25.3 8.4 8.0 COCA COLA CO
7.7 7.3 7.2 INTEL CORP
17.4 10.1 8.9 AOL TIME WARNER INC
6.4 3.3 2.3 VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS
15.2 8.4 7.9 MERCK & CO INC
6.0 12.4 10.6 SBC COMMUNICATIONS INC
10.3 6.1 5.2 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHS
20.1 8.0 7.9 JOHNSON & JOHNSON
31.0 AMERICAN INTL GROUP INC
12.0 CITIGROUP INC
26.6 5.6 5.2 WAL MART STORES INC
28.1 10.7 10.4 PFIZER INC
9.6 2.9 2.8 EXXON MOBIL CORP
26.1 12.2 13.6 MICROSOFT CORP
24.9 25.0 16.3 GENERAL ELEC CO

Belgian
(10/03/2001; 14:47:00 MDT - Msg ID: 62877)
Denver Gold Marketing plan of 200 million $ / tear ?
Made me re-think, why Gold isn't marketed as an "INVESTMENT", by goldproducers ? Maybe, because goldminers are *not* Gold-Investors ? Or maybe they are convinced that only jewelry is taken off the market, for ever, in contrast with investment goldbars, who will be sold again and could disturb the mining plans ? So I have to come up with a rocksolid reason to accumulate "permanently", physical gold on an investment basis, with no intention (reason) of selling it back ever again.
The past / present and future, permanent depreciation of "all" currencies and inevitable loss of purchasing power, is the one and only fundamental justification for permanent gold accumulation. Currencies will always depreciate, because of the inevitability of unproductive debts. Yes we do have extended periods where these depreciations are falsified and that other investments (speculations)(gambles) are outpacing the depreciation speed. But at what risk/reward proportions ?

Do we have to conclude that, holding Gold for the past 20 years, has been a tremendous loss of profit-opportunity ?
The coming Gold re-valuation, shall give the answer. But I'm
convinced that a regular Gold-Accumulator, and holder, over the past 20 years with declining prices, will be rewarded and his holding will inevitably be re-adjusted later on.

The past 20 years, Gold, did not signal that permanent depreciation. We suppose knowing why. We are supposed to believe that gold hasn't any fundamental/stabilizing role, left, to play. If so, what will be the future reference for the increasing imbalance between total debt and total production of goods and services ? And how many fortunes have been made with the good opportunity flows...and how many fortunes were lost and will be lost in the next decade ? See how Gold's Valuation is showing some anticipation on this, NOW !
Cavan Man
(10/03/2001; 14:48:11 MDT - Msg ID: 62878)
The Stranger
Hello Dave. I suspect President Bush and his advisors are being deliberately cautious because this situation has "global conflict" in a catastrophic sense written all over it IMHO. Can you say WWIII? I commend Mr. Bush for his efforts and am glad the last administration is in the history books at this time Don't forget your grandchildren and mine will all be living in this world long after you and I have moved on. Kind regards...CM
CoBra(too)
(10/03/2001; 15:24:37 MDT - Msg ID: 62879)
@Stranger - On the lighter side -
While I understand your frustration I feel GWB is correct to weigh all implications at this juncture in a potentially explosive and disruptive global situation be happy no-one is rioting in the US.

In Switzerland only some 10.000 were rioting on the streets and protesting against the "United Bandits of Switzerland", formerly called UBS ... signs of the times, when national idols like Swiss Air are challenged.

cb2
site steward
(10/03/2001; 16:18:38 MDT - Msg ID: 62880)
Fed's rate cut press release: FOMC Statement
(Posted here for posterity. Strangely, I didn't see this posted yesterday by anyone else.)
---------------------
Release Date: October 2, 2001

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 2-1/2 percent. In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 50 basis point reduction in the discount rate to 2 percent.

The terrorist attacks have significantly heightened uncertainty in an economy that was already weak. Business and household spending as a consequence are being further damped. Nonetheless, the long-term prospects for productivity growth and the economy remain favorable and should become evident once the unusual forces restraining demand abate.

The Committee continues to believe that, against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future.
Hipplebeck
(10/03/2001; 16:25:32 MDT - Msg ID: 62881)
a few observations
I believe I see in the current numbers that the old US of A is crawling into bed with every unsavory character they can find. They are calling in all markers and selling their souls. The dealing is fast and furious. All stops are out. It's make or break time boys. High stakes gambling.
There are lip marks on asses we wouldn't have givin the time of day last year. You can thank your government for selling out the future of your children, because that's what's going on.
You better believe the word is out that all butts are covered in the market. All problems will be papered over, the gaurantee is out.
In the war against terrorism, anything goes, and I mean anything. There is no such thing as moral hazard in these times. It's a fight to the finish, so don't expect any reality in any markets.
site steward
(10/03/2001; 16:34:08 MDT - Msg ID: 62882)
HEADLINE: Euro biggest beneficiary of Fed rate cut
http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/views/story/0,2276,23498,00.html?Excerpts from this Oct. 4 article (from Asia)

The Euro emerged the clearest winner from a largely expected 0.5 percentage point cut in US interest rates overnight-------leaving a currency like the euro with a bullish positive carry (or interest rate advantage) of at least one per cent.--------Demand for the euro may also have been reinforced by Japanese interest, and after senior European officials cautioned against expectations of blow-by-blow cuts by the European Central Bank-----------Despite another good showing on Wall Street following the Fed decision, the euro hit five-month highs versus the Singapore dollar and yen - and posted solid gains versus the safe-haven Swiss franc and sterling pound.
- - - - -

A slippery slope for the dollar, now being held in many hands throughout the world. For how long will they hold an obviously wasting financial unit? When the world loosens it grasp on a flood of dollars, you will find safe "high ground" in gold.

R.
The Stranger
(10/03/2001; 17:05:12 MDT - Msg ID: 62883)
Do The Right Thing, George
Cavan Man and CoBra(too):

I don't think history supports the notion that war is something best dabbled with. Nor do I think it implicit in Mr. Bush's "deliberate caution" (Cavan Man) that he is necessarily doing a superior job of "weighing all the implications" (CoBra). As Hipplebeck points out nearby, there is a whole host of Faustian bargains being made to lure these pirates aboard. (Not the least of which are the ones being made to Wall Street, by the way). And why? Because, in this politically correct world, we want to be everybody's friend.

Just do the right thing, George. Get out front and lead. Good people everywhere will flock to your cause, everyone else will have the respect for you that eluded your two nearest predecessors.

Cavan Man
(10/03/2001; 17:37:15 MDT - Msg ID: 62884)
The Stranger
It's too easy to be a conservative, fortyish white guy (me) and want to indiscriminately bomb the crap out of people just so that we can generate some results as in immediate gratification. Rather, one must think clearly. Humanity is counting on us.
Cavan Man
(10/03/2001; 17:43:29 MDT - Msg ID: 62885)
PS to Dave
Someone very close to me lost their oldest son in that tragedy. I saw them last week. Foremost, they wanted Mark back. However, I don't think they want "war" but rather "justice" and "mercy".
CoBra(too)
(10/03/2001; 18:12:58 MDT - Msg ID: 62886)
Anglo Challenged by Franco
http://m1.mny.co.za./mgdg1.nsf/Current/85256AD3005A225287256ADA001435DF?OpenDocument&ByLine=Tim+Woodover Normandy's price, or the bucaneers prize.

You got to love Bob Schulich and Pierre Lassonde, as they have already made 180 Million $ in a few months on the investment. Well done.
auspec
(10/03/2001; 18:34:53 MDT - Msg ID: 62887)
McNWO
elitist
oligarchical
totalitarian

we do it all for U
USAGOLD
(10/03/2001; 19:37:00 MDT - Msg ID: 62888)
Professor von Braun's "Rocket School of Economics"
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/RocketSchool/vonBraun.html"What are you buying when you buy gold? You are buying an instrument that does not have a liability attached to it. It is what it is and is not dependant upon consumer spending, government spending, debt, interest payments, CNBC, or anything else for it to retain its inherent wealth. Ten ounces of gold will always be 10 ounces of gold,regardless of the price. This is what needs to be understood when it comes to re-evaluating ones portfolio. What do you really own that has an inherent value that won't disappear over time, that is not dependant upon something outside of your control for its value to either increase or diminish?"

- - - Professor von Braun

The following is a letter addressed to our own Professor von Braun. I thought it important and worth republishing (which is done below with permission) because it validates from a very personal point of view what we are attempting to accomplish here at USAGOLD. In its essence, beyond its obvious poignance, it is an encouragement, not only to Professor von Bran (and USAGOLD) but to all of us who believe that gold plays a special role in the overall investment portfolio, and spend time attempting to transform that belief to a course of action. It also brings home on a very fundamental level how important it is to diversify into gold not just for financial reasons but for personal reasons as well, as JJ points out so well. Professor von Braun writes an extraordinary column -- The Rocket School of Economics -- which we are privileged to publish at this site. Long ago, amidst the atmosperics we call the gold internet, I recognized this writer as one of the finest and clearest thinkers among a whole host of writers who gained traction at the advent of the internet. Now we find him posting his material at this site. If you have not availed yourself of his writing, please do. You will find not only his most recent entry (which serves as an excellent foundational essay), but also a long list of articles which reflect an extraordinary body of work over several years period of time. All too often we take important thinkers for granted. In JJ who writes his thanks to PvB, we have an example of someone who hasn't -- to his own and his family's lasting benefit. I will say it again: With reference to the stock market, the cry used to be "Buy the Dips." That has transformed now to "Sell the Rallies." This is not over yet, my friends, but even if it were, you would nevertheless find yourself well-served over the long run with a gold diversification -- both financially and in terms of personal satisfaction. I'm sure there are others who could buttress JJ's validation. I refer all to the quote and link above. Please read on. . . . . .

* * * * *

Dear Professor,

I thoroughly enjoyed reading (and using) your wisdom in the GE articles, then in LeMetropole Cafe occasionally. Thought you dropped out of sight until I recently discovered your article on USA Gold(which I recently found).

The reason I'm writing(wrote once before over a year ago) is to thank you.Your writings made so much sense that I sold CSCO(@$68), MSFT(@$105),GE($@60), Not all that smart as rode INTC to $32. I took my common stock from almost 50% to 20% of investment However I will always remember you saying buying gold and taking delivery @$286 or below was a bargain. Well I got some above and below averaging $300 +/- for the eagles which are almost 20% of my investments. It has given great piece of mind no matter what the gold price was doing. It is truly a store of wealth .

I also starting giving my sons (all four are policemen, one NYPD) gold for their birthdays, Christmas or just to give, as well as to my grandchildren. I know they think (or maybe did) I am weird or eccentric, compared to the 'good grandparents who were giving toys, clothes etc. I too do not look at my home or automobiles as an "asset" even though both are all paid for, as you have to live somewhere and drive something, and the real estate bubble may be upon us shortly.

Anyway I wanted to say thank you again, you made great sense at the time. Bill Fleckenstein "Market Rap" helped me immensely also, although my Merrill Lynch broker now would likes to take the credit that I escaped the stock debacle.(It was moi who was doing most of calling and saying sell this and that). Your wisdom has also given me the opportunity and $ to gift my children and some very selected charities.

I am thrilled that I have found your articles again. I plan to buy more gold eagles this week and take delivery.

Thank you. Be well.

Regards,

JJ/Arizona/USA

P.S. My one daughter in law was asking the other day what I thought her father should do. He invested a lot of his retirement $ in 1998 in, yes, tech stocks, now getting real close to retirement age. Should he hold out for come back? I was saddened for him( I don't know him at all). Told her I have no idea . Too bad he hadn't invested a little in gold. Thanks.




The Stranger
(10/03/2001; 19:37:01 MDT - Msg ID: 62889)
Cavan Man
I'm sorry for your friend. But I do not want to start bombing indiscriminately. In fact, I don't even know if any bombing is called for. You may have missed my point.

What I intended to convey is that the enemy here is much bigger than a few hundred fundamentalist crazies. Pretending otherwise for the sake of not offending anyone may lead to what, in the Vietnam era, was called limited engagement. I don't need to remind you how that turned out. Better we should not fight at all and just start controlling who has access to our shores.

One other point: Whatever we do, it should have NOTHING TO DO WITH ACHIEVING JUSTICE. The Israelis have been achieving justice for years, and all it does is lead to the next round of violence. No, if we are to proceed with force, our goal must be nothing short of putting the violent side of Islam out of business for good.

uponroof
(10/03/2001; 21:57:20 MDT - Msg ID: 62890)
No backing down
How quickly all forget how dangerous this world is and the committment required to keep order and survive in it.

Why are we expected to carefully measure our response while the 'irresponsible' kill indescriminately, then receive less than clear and universal condemnation? Does world opinion deserve such revered status after such obviously weak integrity? Why are we petty slaves to this sort of world opinion? I know our respect and perceived potency has been compromised through this delay.

The rule: "you cannot negotiate with terrorists" is being stood on it's head as it seems to now have territorial boundaries. If our Air Force is prepared to shoot down a plane full of Americans, why the pussyfooting around with the rest of the world?

This will be messy and lives will be lost. I say that as a father of a seventeen year old. The sooner we proceded with what must be done the sooner we will eliminate those responsible and save lives.

They want to kill YOU my friends. This is citizen personal, not gummint troops exclusive. No conventions in Geneva.

Anyone who is associated with these murderering scum must be punished. AND, If we're wise distribute enough 'collateral damage' to those living anywhere nearby to create major anger, NOT AT US, but at those foolish enough to draw our unrelenting, unmerciful attention. If you choose to associate, or live anywhere near terrorists, you die. Death is the only currency accepted. Lessor payments will be interpreted as a counterfit.

I can only hope this 'tact' of GW Bush is a front to buy time for minesweeping the front yard. In his defense I suspect threats of nuclear and biological bombs in major cities will be detonated if we retaliate. How does one evaluate such a statement or respond?

Once we have located as many cells as possible, both domestic and abroad, Afghan/Taliban/US University 'students'/and all related connected guilty parties, unmerciful carpet bombing/invasion/assasination and total elimination should be the order of the day.

btw-Recall Bush's apologetic retraction of the word 'Crusade'. Are you kidding!? My friends we are the baddest asses on this planet. If we want to use the word Crusade, let's use it. If innocent Muslims are offended I suggest they take up the issue with the Taliban et al who deserve nothing less than a CRUSADE. There are 5000+ who bought the rights to use that word.
ORO
(10/03/2001; 21:59:16 MDT - Msg ID: 62891)
Belgique - gold is not an investment
An investment is the acquisition of a stake in a current or future productive asset that is expected to make a return, a profit. You can own a share in it through equity or through debt (the debt is secured by the plant, so that if the operation defaults, you gain ownership of the whole company, if not, you gain the nominal return contracted). Contrary to FOA's and ANOTHER's thinking, when you own bonds and equities, as well as bank accounts, you own a stake in the actual assets of people or businesses you financed. You own the cash flow the assets produce or you own the the assets themselves (meaning pretty much the same thing because that is the best bid you will get from a prospective buyer). The fact that the bonds amd bank accounts have denominations in "dollars" or "yen" does not mean that you own currencies. What you own directly or indirectly are the productive assets. What they produce for you is a "cash flow", whether it is gold, shoes or dollars, the cash flow is real, not FOA's "illusion".

Gold is not a production plant, neither is it a McDonalds Franchise. Gold is held as physical savings in the same way one holds canned goods and bottled water in the basement; just in case. Under "normal" circumstances gold, like the stuff in your basement, makes for a loss. If productive assets turn sour and stop producing profits, then the value of the asset falls as do the equity and debt stakes you hold in the asset. As profit expectations drop, the amount of goods and services the cash flow can buy drops. Under these circumstances the prospective investor will not consider a new appartment building or an internet service, and would rather hold something tangible but liquid, in which case the demand for physical gold increases whether it is being officially used as money, or not. Other tangibles either take too long to buy or sell (real estate), or have a very high bid/ask ratio or sales commission (art in particular), or have a high storage cost. Thus when profits erode, gold is sought after and its value as measured in goods and services tends to rise.

For people worried about short outbreaks of "price inflation" which erodes the purchasing power of their bond holdings, gold derivatives and the like "leveraged bets on gold" are purchased - not in order to substitute for gold but in order to hedge against a drop in the value of the fixed denomination debt, in effect turning the denomination of the assets into gold by purchasing "paper gold". The intention is not to hold gold but to change the denomination of the assets into gold. This does not make the productive assets into gold substitutes any more than shoe factories are a substitute for shoes. If you want to save gold you must understand that it is a "saving for a rainy day", not an investment. Its purpose is not to make a profit but to have something in hand in case your productive assets don't produce. If you want an investment related to gold invest in a gold mine and its suppliers and financiers.

It should be pointed out here that productive assets often produce losses temporarily as the relative prices of products to consumed resources (particularly skilled labor time) fall into negative territory or close to it. This results in closures of weaker operations which releases labor back into the markets, which causes a drop in labor costs more quickly than it causes a drop in product prices, particularly of those products that are consumed like services and perishables. If government does not act to prevent weak operations from closure and acts to prevent labor from moving to lower compensation and to a location where it can be employed, then the repair of the economic dislocation can occur. Trying to prevent "the pain" by government will only prevent people from seeking a change in skills and/or place. This is the error (intentional error) of the US government and practically all of its counterparts in the great depression - from welfare and make work programs that prevented wages from falling, to protectionist measures that destroyed trade, and to price supports and much higher taxes - governemnt treated the economy's repair process as if it were the disease and thus made it much worse. In the 70's the structural impediment to rebalancing the economy both here and abroad were "windfall taxes" that prevented energy production, the imposition of stultifying regulation by the EPA, imposition of minimum wage, and then resistance by trade unions and their political support to lower real wages made necessary by the inroduction of 40 odd million new workers from the baby boom generation, this coupled with the "oil crisis" and the dumping of dollars by investors everywhere. The currency could have been fine if the profitability of businesses was not so heavily impaired by the government.

If the government simply lays off the economy by reducing expenditure, firing civil servants, quickening the pace of bankruptcy proceedings, and eliminating taxes and regulatory burdens, then the process can accelerate and complete itself in a shorter time frame. The Fed too must do its best to match short market interest rates rather than act out of fear of deflations or inflations. This means that Fed rates must change very rapidly as they did before the Fed was opened, so as to match up incoming and outgoing money market fund flows without increasing the monetary base and while maintaining a complementary debt demand and credit supply balance on all dollar debt - domestic and foreign. It is not possible for the Fed to do this successfully, but they can attempt an approximation. They definitely can't do it with bimonthly votes.


The only "investment" in physical gold (not numismatic gold) is when you think it is "undervalued" i.e. below current replacement cost (now still at about $340) for depleted official inventories, or below future replacement costs at the market clearing price without official injections of bullion (about $600-800). This is a speculative commodity trade, not quite an investment.
sourdough
(10/03/2001; 22:23:46 MDT - Msg ID: 62892)
Could it happen here?
I read a story the other day about how an Asian woman was buying food for her family during a crisis, with the individual links on her GOLD chain. I looked on this situation with an air of superiority and a passing thought of how "good" it is to live in North America.
The article I posted on the influenza outbreak in Manila has given me cause for thought.
If these sleepers among us were willing to give up there lives buy self injecting a virus (EBOLA or similar) and then deliberately coming in contact with as many people as possible, I and mine could find ourselves wishing for that very gold necklace, that WISE woman had kept to the very last!
What if this happened? The continent would grind to a halt! People would lock themselves in their houses. Food and necessities could very well depend on those tiny "links".
Asian people do not buy 10 k crap. They buy gold jewellery that can be taken to any pawn shop when necessary.

"From now on I will always look at a 24k gold necklace with the RESPECT IT DESERVES!

The problem with Gold jewellery is the markup for the manufacturer and retailer.(wgc should subsidize this area) Where can solid gold jewellery be purchased with a premium equivalent to coinage?.......
.......followup on yesterdays story from Manila
WHO: FLU OUTBREAK POSSIBLY DELIBERATE
An official of the World Health Organization (WHO) on Wednesday has not entirely dismissed the possibility of a deliberate act in spreading an Influenza virus that downed thousands of students from several Metro Manila schools Tuesday.

While stressing that the outbreak might been natural, Dr. Ofhi Tani, WHO regional adviser in communicable disease surveillance and response, said the chance of spreading the virus selectively and deliberately is a remote possibility.

Tani said local health authorities should conduct thorough clinical and scientific tests on the strain of the culprit virus to determine how it spread.

A few hours after reports of numerous flu cases began to spread Tuesday, Department of Health Secretary Manuel Dayrit announced the DOH's initial investigation revealed the type of influenza virus as belonging to the "N1 H1" category.

Tani explained the category has many other strains, which included Type B Influenza virus that usually causes an outbreak.

The WHO official said what occurred last Tuesday falls under the classification of a medical outbreak.

Tani explained medical outbreaks occur by natural causes or it can be man-made as a result of biological terrorism.

The WHO official said those who have already contracted the disease are advised not to self-medicate while the flu strain has not yet been identified.

Malaca--ang on Wednesday downplayed reports that biological warfare has caused the illness that hit several schools in Metro Manila Tuesday.

Presidential Spokesman Rigoberto Tiglao said media reports resulted in the hysteric reaction to the influenza outbreak in several private schools.

Tiglao said the hysteria was triggered by text messages in cell phones that "hyped" reports on the possibility of biological warfare. He said the "text attacks" occurred after news reports said some schools closed due to a sickness that downed several students.

He blamed news reports and text messages for triggering speculations that Metro Manila had come under a terrorist biological attack.

Reports on the supposed outbreak triggered a flurry of text messages and sent parents scurrying to fetch their children from schools.

President Arroyo said the Philippines could not be a target for attack since the country is not a major player in the war declared by the international coalition, led by the United States, against terrorists led by exiled Saudi multimillionaire Osama bin Laden.

Dayrit said the virus struck down one percent of the entire student population in Metro Manila.

"If your really see the number of people getting sick, it is really the same frequency as we are getting from people getting sick in hospitals at a given day. There was no significant increase in the number of cases, and public schools were not affected," he said.

Dayrit said Tuesday's influenza attack was a normal medical phenomenon.

"People getting sick is normal. Influenza is a normal disease and we could go on [with] our normal lives. There is no cause for alarm," he said.

Dayrit said several conditions could give rise to the concentration of influenza cases in a particular location.

He explained the possibility that immune systems of students in areas like Saint Paul College in Pasig City were weak compared to students in public schools.

Aside from Saint Paul, other places stricken by the virus are all exclusive schools whose classrooms are air-conditioned. Over a thousand students from these schools were reported to have contracted influenza, forcing some schools to suspend classes.

Latest reports indicate a growing number of schools reporting students contracting the virus. Among the schools added to the list are University of the Philippines-Integrated School in Diliman, Quezon City, with 87 reported cases, Saint Bridget's School, also in Quezon City with 116 cases, and Far Eastern University in Manila with 16 cases.

A report from the National Disaster Coordinating Council later Wednesday showed 2,212 reported cases of flu in Metro Manila.

Colegio de San Agustin in Makati City registered the highest number of cases with 799.

Among the schools whose students were stricken by flu are Pasig Catholic School with 75 cases, Poveda Learning Center, 18, Don Bosco, 288, La Salle-Greenhills, 291, Saint Jude Catholic School, 45, Claret School in Quezon City, 20, and Dominican School, also in Quezon City, 105.

Department of Environment and Natural Resources Secretary Heherson Alvarez declared that pollution in the capital region did not cause the spread of the flu virus.

Citing a report submitted by the Metro Manila office of the Environmental Management Bureau, Alvarez said there are no indications that pollution caused the medical outbreak.

Alvarez said there are no factories within a half kilometer surrounding some of the schools affected by the outbreak.

Education Undersecretary Ramon Bacani said field teams have been deployed to monitor the situation.

"Apparently the incident was isolated to private schools," he said.

Bacani said private school officials can call for the suspension of classes if warranted by the situation.

He admitted, however, that it was the first time he encountered what he called as a "limited" influenza outbreak in schools.

"Based on my recollection, this is the first time I encountered such a situation and it was limited to private schools only," Bacani said.

He said reports submitted by the district school superintendents showed a "normal rate" of students absenting themselves due to various illnesses, including influenza.

At the Antonio Regidor and A. Bonifacio elementary schools, both located in Quezon City, out of the 4,000 students enrolled, only 31 contracted flu.

The situation apparently caused some lawmakers to become jittery too and called for a congressional probe on the incident.

Surigao del Sur Rep. Prospero Pichay, chairman of the House Committee on National Defense and Security, said health officials must face a probe to determine the cause of the outbreak.

Pichay said the public must be informed if there is a new viral strain that attacked the students and the possibility of germ warfare being waged by terrorists
tg
(10/03/2001; 22:41:57 MDT - Msg ID: 62893)
uponroof
I can imagine your logic in your message 62980 to be the same that the terrorists would have used before their atrocious act. If Western and Christian ideals are supposed to be superior to that of Islam, let us behave and respond in a superior manner, otherwise how do we tell who is the terrorist and murderes.
Above all seek the truth before you let your anger dictate your actions.
Finally ask yourself, are you willing to die for what you believe in, will you be the first to put your hand up to fight, or are you happy to see your brothers and sisters die for you in exacting your revenge.

This is by no means an attack on you, we all feel your anger.
Netking
(10/03/2001; 23:57:31 MDT - Msg ID: 62894)
'Market Mania'
http://www.cross-currents.net/charts.htmLink updated and worth a look.
------------------------------------------------------------
CoBra(too)(62855)& Pandagold(62859), good comments from you both.
- Netking
Netking
(10/04/2001; 00:45:09 MDT - Msg ID: 62895)
Russian Expert Who �Predicted� Attacks (and promoted gold) Warns of New Ones & Updates Views
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2001/10/3/212706.shtmlNewsmax reports the same Russian government expert who predicted last July that America was about to suffer a "financial attack" � and encouraged Russian citizens to cash out of dollars and buy rubles and gold � has again surfaced to make more stunning forecasts. It's not enjoyable family reading sorry, but in the 'Art Of War' you know your enemy, yes.

* She say's New Strikes Will Come. In the near term, she said "the powerful group" who masterminded the events of Sept. 11 will make new strikes against America � of a financial nature and otherwise. She said they will "strike America in the back" and bring it down. She noted that Americans are consolidating around their government and preparing retaliatory strikes against the "terrorists". However, Americans are trembling about spending. When they understand after the upcoming, new strikes, that their government can guarantee them nothing, they will panic -- causing a collapse of their financial system.

* Didn't Make Serious Mistake. About her forecast made on 12 July, Dr. Koryagina said, "I did not make a serious mistake. Indeed, between 15 and 20 August, the dollar started trembling under the pressure of multiple bad news about the U.S. and world economy. And within weeks, the Manhattan skyscrapers fell down. As a result, a significant part of the world financial network was paralyzed. This strike was aimed at destabilization and destruction of America and (in domino fashion) all the countries making countless billions of dollars."

* The Powerful Group. Who is behind these strikes? Koryagina claims the U.S. is painting a false picture. She said the operation was not the work of 19 terrorists, but a larger group seeking to reshape the world. She claimed a group of extremely powerful private persons, with total assets of about $300 trillion,(narrows down the punters to a short list - Netking)intends to legalize its power and to become the new world government. The September 11 strikes showed that this group is afraid of nothing -- human lives have zero value for them.
*(Rhetorical question: Is Osama therefore a sacrificial pawn for "this group" and a means to an desired end? - Netking)

Koryagina again encouraged Russian citizens to cash out of dollars. The Koryagina claims are not easily dismissed, especially her clear indications in the interview before Sept. 11 that the attacks on America's financial system would be of an unusual nature. Her comments also mirrored similar warnings issued by Russian officials.

Still, this story raises other questions. Did the Russian government know in advance and what was their involvement?

On 28 September the Washington Times reported that "U.S. intelligence agencies have uncovered information that Russian criminal groups have been supplying Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaida terrorist network with components for chemical, biological and nuclear weapons."

Of course, the Russian mafia has very close ties with Russia's intelligence agencies.

It is important to note Russia is a significant backer of almost every state sponsor of terrorism, some with links to bin Laden's group. These include Iraq, Iran, Syria, Libya, North Korea and Cuba.View Yesterday's Discussion.

Belgian
(10/04/2001; 01:35:18 MDT - Msg ID: 62896)
@ORO #62891 : GOLD IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ? (part I)
Sir,
Let's leave the controversial and multi-interpretational, word " investment " for what it is or isn't. It would only embark us on an unproductive discussion.

Physical Gold in Possession is everything except a money-generator. All other financial/economic, aspects you are describing are : money-generators ! A business, a house, a plot of land, debt-papers, currencies, speculative-papers
...are all *temporary*, money-makers and loosers. The total of this economic/financial, activity = GDP.
GDP = number of units produced x the price per unit !!!!!
Two variables !

Evolving, Global GDP has a relation with the Valuation of the total amount of Gold, aboveground ! Now, if you can't agree with this concept...your stated concept of Gold is correct and you can project this into the future. May I suggest you buy the absolute minimum of physical and invest (?) in solid mines.

pause,
Belgian
(10/04/2001; 02:13:45 MDT - Msg ID: 62897)
@ORO #62891 GOLD IS NOT AN INVESTMENT (part II)
Physical Gold in possession is the final and ultimate store of the "wealth-part" of that global GDP. Wealth-part = the genuine profit that has been generated with all the different money-generator tools. And theoretically, the valuation of Gold, will always search for its correct proportion to this amount of profit (wealth).

GDP, fluctuates when one or both variables alter. Or the number of units, produced, or the price per unit, alters.
This could result into the following : A dramatic increase in GDP, when the number of produced units decline and the price per unit increases sharply. For instance a dollar collapse (hyperinflation). The cream-profit-number on this total (altered) GDP, shoots up and the valuation of Gold, as store of wealth (only real investment), adjusts, sooner or later. Of course, you are right in stating that the valuation of Gold can be over or under valuated. But this doesn not change anything on its fundamental reason of being.

How can Physical Gold in possession ever be "a loss" ?
Under normal and abnormal circumstances. Gold (physical in possession) is "condemned" to permanent increasing valuation. Use the GDP-definition for all scenario's and make your conclusion. Everything else (except Gold), comes and goes, cyclic as it is. But you never answered or reacted on the Permanent Depreciation, due to the inevitable debt-increase ! GDP MUST grow and the price per unit is the path of least resistance !! So, yes, do invest in GDP, when the time is right, but always accumulate (invest) in Gold to compensate for the price per unit, temptational debacle. In your second paragraph #62891, you suddenly seem to agree on that ?

The General mistake about economy and financial evolution is still with these infla/defla-lalala's. The relentless Debt-Drift is responsable for PERMANENT DEPRECIATION of everything except Gold ! Your "price-inflation" is only a snapshot of the total picture. It is raining continously, day after day. And there is no such thing as a very particular "rainy day". All other GDP-tools are temporarely holdings as to produce that "ultimate", profit that must be stored properly in the one and only vehicle of choice : Gold. And indeed, it is only a very small minority, that is inclined to do so ! But this this automatically mean, that they have it wrong ? And than I refer to my post about the 200 million $ Gold-marketing, as to start promoting this Gold-store of wealth-concept, globally. But gold-producers are not gold-investors !

pause,
Netking
(10/04/2001; 02:24:48 MDT - Msg ID: 62898)
Bush proposes (another) $75 billion stimulus
http://www.msnbc.com/news/627028.asp?0si=-Snippets:
- Saying he will do what it takes to rebuild Americans� confidence in the economy, President George W. Bush and his top economic adviser urged Congress to approve a stimulus plan Wednesday of $60 billion to $75 billion to avert a recession triggered in part by last month's terrorist attacks. Democratic leaders acknowledged that the plan would mean a return to deficit spending but said they saw no alternative . . .

- "WE�VE JUST got to be aggressive and make sure we do what we need to do at the federal level to provide a kick-start to give people reason to be confident, and we will do that," Bush said after meeting with business executives at Federal Hall . . . .

- O�Neill told the Senate Finance Committee that Bush had asked him to work with Congress to develop an additional economic stimulus plan of $60 billion to $75 billion. That would bring total stimulus approved by the government since the Sept. 11 attacks to well more than the $100 billion many economists have said was needed. Congress has already passed a $40 billion emergency spending plan and a $15 billion package of aid for airlines. . . federal outlays in the current fiscal year are expected to be about $2 trillion . . .

- Daschle cautioned that "we are borrowing money to provide this stimulus. People ought to know that. This is deficit spending once again, and it's very disconcerting to many of us, but I don't know that there's an alternative. We are in an economic, defense and security emergency that would dictate that we take emergency measures. . . .
BR549
(10/04/2001; 03:09:03 MDT - Msg ID: 62899)
Nobel Prize laureate Dr. Robert Mundell---

site steward (msg#: 62866)

Finally someone debunks the myth about Gresham's Law that "bad money drives out good" by putting valued money into its proper context. Gold is neither "bad" or "good" money unless you can define the cheapest method of settlement and the relative "lowest costs of transport per unit of value" for alternative methods of payment.

The aggregate of each individual's perceived value of money via hoarding is what drives so called "good" money out of circulation. This is similar to superior consumables driving out inferior goods (or depending upon price and availability, vice versa).

A great read.

BR549
Belgian
(10/04/2001; 03:21:18 MDT - Msg ID: 62900)
@ORO #62891 GOLD IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ? (part III)
Sir, allow me to skip comments on your paragraphs 4 and 5, where you confusingly describe how gvnmt-intervention should or shouldn't be happening.
Last paragraph : investment in physical Gold and speculative commodity trade ? Yep, goldbug or Goldadvocate ? (teazer and smile).

The financial/speculative/gambling -part of the global economy, has completely taken over the natural economic processus. The dog and its tail.
Now, if this has to be repeated, on a daily basis,...it is evidence that it isn't understood and grotesquely underestimated. Enterpreneurship has nothing to do with "Gambling". And classifying Physical Gold in Possession as a speculation is projecting linear thinking and sticking to a misleading concept of Gold.

Unfortunately, we don't have a poster on board, with a stash of 5.000 tonnes of physical Gold in his vaults. How are these kind of (private) forces, thinking about their physical in possession ? That would be quite interesting to build some concept-change-marketing campaign, on. But as for today, speculation-gambling and rapid money-generation are the ultimate "culture" to be promoted ad infinitum.
The Trillion $-Tango's...and they shoot horses, don't they ?

Sir ORO, the past 30 Gold-years, are a spit in the ocean.
You seem to be hooked on it in your thinking. Up until recently, I think, I made that same mistake. Homo economicus has arrived, or is very close, at a crossing point. Evolving globalization with a dollar currency (and euro) is only at the early stages of its evolution. Chineze, Russians, and ME, also want to identify, themselves, with a currency of their choice: repeat : of their free choice !
I do believe that Gold will come back in place with its original sound concept, wich is completely different as of today's. The ridicule valuation of today's gold is an unique opportunity, that will never be produced again.

I don't want to give this opportunity a name (investment or other). I am not a -blind- *believer* in Gold. It is only "rationale" that brought me to this unique measurement of things. For the simple reason that homo economicus is stucked in a one way street of illusion. Getting Gold, back into the play is the only right way out, I can detect.
But I do keep asking, for illuminated spirits, to paint an alternative global big picture, eventually without Gold and its fundamentals. If they can convince me...I'll crawl back into the commodity camp, humbled and ashamed. Please, have mercy on me with an eventual (difficult) reply. Thank you Sir.
Belgian
(10/04/2001; 03:49:27 MDT - Msg ID: 62901)
GOOD or BAD MONEY ?
From a small businesman's standpoint and student on economy : Good money is that amount of money that is able to produce (generate) : sound - healthy - repetitive - reliable and qualitative profits. Sustained profit-cycles in a selfcorrecting economic conjuncture, without disturbing imbalances or falsifications. All the rest is "etherical" bad money. Good money is the kind of fiat you earned honestly and are prepared to hold or invest (humm) into other sound profit generators. So, how much of all money is good money ? How much of total money is not money, but just ordinarry debt-paper. How much good money is left ? If one soesn't want to hold suspexcted bad fiat with poor intrinsic value, and decides to exchange this money for tangibles that fall under the austerity of the taxing landlords...how good or bad is that tangible ?

All money is as good or as bad as its purchasing power will be at the moment of exchange. And what is engineered today is that majestic illusion of an increasing amount of money that keeps its purchasing power : WONDERFULL !
This illusion is a masterpiece in the financial history.
Very few are and have been storing (exchanging) their good money into something that will never die, detoriate or loose its good value. Many others will follow this example, shortly, when they suddenly realise there is little good money left.
Belgian
(10/04/2001; 04:57:29 MDT - Msg ID: 62902)
OPEC
OPEC President, Chakib Khebil, confirms that there will be no cuts in output, up until the attack(s) (if any), are finished. Even if it means, having POO below the 22$/28$ basket price for more than 8 days !!!-???

Voila, while the world is preparing for changing a complete country (Afghanistan) " � la carte ", moslims/islamistes (Saudi Arabia), are saving the globe from economic collapse ! What an explosive contradiction !

The POO, again at the dollar's service in confirming its strength (low dollar price for valuable crude). Back to square one.

What if bin Laden, should survive, longer than origanally estimated ? What if he suddenly pops up in...China ?
Risky business, isn't it ? And all this with POO as the joker.
silvercollector
(10/04/2001; 05:30:39 MDT - Msg ID: 62903)
911
From Cliff Drokes latest:

This next nugget falls under the category of the recent "terrorist" attacks. The evidence of a carefully planned destruction of the Trade Towers from within, rather than a single attack from without, is mounting. Consider the latest report from a major U.S. newspaper: In an article headlined, "Explosives Planted In Towers, N.M. Tech Expert Says," in the Albuquerque Journal, staff writer Olivier Uyttebrouck reported the following:
Televised images of the attacks on the World Trade Center suggest that explosives devices caused the collapse of both towers, a New Mexico Tech explosion expert said Tuesday.
The collapse of the buildings appears "too methodical" to be a chance result of airplanes colliding with the structures, said Van Romero, vice president for research at New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology."
My opinion is, based on the videotapes, that after the airplanes hit the World Trade Center there were some explosive devices inside the buildings that caused the towers to collapse,' Romero said. Romero is a former director of the Energetic Materials Research and Testing Center at Tech, which studies explosive materials and the effects of explosions on buildings, aircraft and other structures. Romero said he based his opinion on video aired on national television broadcasts.

From Google Search:

ABQjournal: Explosives Planted In Towers, NM Tech Expert Says
... Explosives Planted In Towers, NM Tech Expert Says By Olivier Uyttebrouck Journal
Staff Writer Televised images of the attacks on the World Trade Center suggest ...
www.abqjournal.com/aqvan09-11-01.htm - 20k - Cached - Similar pages

To the webmaster at Albuquerque Journal,

ABQjournal: Explosives Planted In Towers, NM Tech Expert Says
... Explosives Planted In Towers, NM Tech Expert Says By Olivier Uyttebrouck Journal
Staff Writer Televised images of the attacks on the World Trade Center suggest ...
www.abqjournal.com/aqvan09-11-01.htm - 20k - Cached - Similar pages

-End-

Dear Sir/Madam,

Please provide me this story from Olivier Uyttebrouck.

Thank you.

-End-

I will post to forum if I receive email from ABQ Journal.

Spartacus
(10/04/2001; 06:20:32 MDT - Msg ID: 62904)
Where is the Revolt of the Long Bond?

THE DAILY RECKONING
PARIS, FRANCE
WEDNESDAY, 3 OCTOBER 2001

"Yesterday, the Fed took another step towards zero - its 9th so far this year - cutting rates another 50 basis points, leaving only 250 bps to go.

And yet, despite the flood of cash and credit, the bond market shows no signs of worrying about inflation. Long bonds rose sharply yesterday; inflation-adjusted bonds, relatively, sank.

The dogs of war are bound to bite a few innocent people...but - astonishingly - investors, so far, are not anticipating any collateral damage from inflation."


Spartacus: Greenspan is cutting rates like never before, but why is Mr.Market not headed in the opposite direction - increasing the cost of borrowed funds. I don�t get it. Where are the bond vigilantes? Any theories?
Usul
(10/04/2001; 06:46:31 MDT - Msg ID: 62905)
Sir Thomas Gresham
http://www.findagrave.com/cgi-bin/fg.cgi?page=gr&GRid=12105"The grasshopper which was part of his coat of arms still features in the heraldry of many City institutions"

"Burial:
St. Helen's Church
Bishopsgate, London, England"
Mr Gresham
(10/04/2001; 07:13:46 MDT - Msg ID: 62906)
Usul: Grasshopper
Ahhh, so that's why Black Blade's "grasshopper" comments {smiles, bro} were getting me semi-riled earlier this year. You see, the Greshams come from a long line of "English Californians", dating back to those early Elizabethan surfing days.

Looks like lots of good reading already this morning...
uponroof
(10/04/2001; 07:18:37 MDT - Msg ID: 62907)
Jewellery
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/011003/n03302564_1.htmlChris Thompson (GOLD) calling for more jewellery advertising.

Yes jewellery accounts for 75-80 percent of global gold demand. BUT, given the pathetic demand under these incredible world conditions I'd say increasing jewellery consumption, has a limited upside.

Time to refocus on a sector that has the potential to dwarf jewellery demand. Gold as Money. Bullion without the craftsmanship involved in jewellery creation is cheaper. I'll take junk silver coins over hocking links in a gold necklace any day.

If only a small percentage of world investment capital targeted physical gold and gold resources it would out perform multiple increases of the current global jewellery 'consumption'.

Let's think out of the jewellery envelope. There is currently a global competitive currency devaluation in process. Terrorists stand to cripple economies and forever change qualities of life everywhere. Time to take on fiat head to head. If gold as 'real money' cannot garner support from a Mr Thompson under these conditions this is indeed a very sad commentary on the industry.
***********************************************
tg-thanks for your input. This is a very 'touchy' situation to be sure. In fact we've already been touched....no lets' say molested....no better yet raped! Taking those responsible to world 'court' is no guarantee of justice. Thanks.
Cavan Man
(10/04/2001; 07:35:59 MDT - Msg ID: 62908)
Here's to a NWO
Pentagon sees rogue states
providing terrorists weapons of
mass destruction


SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Thursday, October 4, 2001

WASHINGTON - The United States has projected that rogue states will help
terrorist groups obtain weapons of mass destruction.

A Pentagon assessment said the key target for such an attack will be the United
States. Officials said the prospect of a WMD terrorist attack has risen since the
Sept. 11 suicide attacks on New York and Washington.

"There's always been terrorism, but there's never really been worldwide
terrorism at a time when the weapons have been as powerful as they are today,
with chemical and biological and nuclear weapons spreading to countries that
harbor terrorists," U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said. "One has to
recognize the possibility, the probability that at some point these terrorist
sponsoring nations will provide these kinds of capabilities to terrorist networks."

Rumsfeld said several nations on the State Department list of state terrorist
sponsors are weaponizing biological and chemical agents and seek nuclear
weapons. The reference is to Iran, Iraq, Libya and Syria, Middle East Newsline
reported. The secretary said these countries - which he did not name - have
strong links to terrorist groups.

"We know of certain knowledge that the nations on our terrorist list have
weaponized chemical and biological weapons, and we know that a number of
them are seeking nuclear capabilities," Rumsfeld said. "And we know that they
have close linkages with terrorist networks, and that in many cases, they have
sponsored terrorism. Therefore, it doesn't take a leap of imagination to expect
that at some point those nations will work with those terrorist networks and assist
them in achieving and obtaining those kinds of capabilities."

Officials said the Pentagon is urging for greater intelligenct to track down
terrorist WMD programs. They said the Pentagon is also considering the
appointment of a commander for homeland defense as part of military
restructuring plans.

Some members of Congress, however, have played down the threat of a
biological terrorist attack. On Wednesday, a Senate Appropriations subcommittee
is scheduled to conduct a hearing on U.S. preparations for a WMD terrorist
attack.

"The overall probability of a bioterrorist attack is low," said Sen. William Frist, a
member of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions subcommittee on
Public Health and Safety.

Mr Gresham
(10/04/2001; 07:54:32 MDT - Msg ID: 62909)
"Stocks Always Come Back"
http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-perl/bbs.pl?read=187781Here's a good thread about market failure and the psychology of the herd.
Gandalf the White
(10/04/2001; 08:30:04 MDT - Msg ID: 62910)
Jump SPOT, JUMP !!
Let us try that $292 LEVEL again !
<;-)
CoBra(too)
(10/04/2001; 08:43:07 MDT - Msg ID: 62911)
Franco dropping a not so subtle hint to Anglo -
Looks like a form of justice too - cb2

Globe says Franco-Nevada looking for Normandy sweetener

Franco-Nevada Mining Corp Ltd FN
Shares issued 158,630,670 Oct 3 close $21.74
Thu 4 Oct 2001 In the News
Also Normandy Mining Ltd (NDY)
The National Post reports in its Thursday, Oct. 4, edition that
Franco-Nevada Mining has suggested AngloGold sweeten its $2.3-billion
(U.S.) bid for Normandy Mining of Australia. The Post's Drew Hasselback
writes that Franco-Nevada, which bought a 19.9-per-cent stake in Normandy
in May, said Wednesday it wants AngloGold to raise its bid price as high as
99 U.S. cents, up from AngloGold's current proposal of 71 U.S. cents.
Pierre Lassonde, co-chief executive of Franco-Nevada, sought the sweetener
during a presentation to mining analysts and investors at the Denver Gold
Group's Mining Investment Forum, an annual gathering of the world's largest
gold firms. AngloGold has yet to mail a formal offer to shareholders. That
means Franco-Nevada's hope for a sweetener is not an official rejection of
the AngloGold offer. The plan was to use the Denver conference to drop a
not so subtle hint about how much Franco-Nevada thinks its Normandy stake
is really worth. The Post says AngloGold is under pressure to conclude a
major deal. AngloGold says it would consider improving its offer only if
there were "material changes to circumstances."
(c) Copyright 2001 Canjex Publishing Ltd. http://www.stockwatch.com
tedw
(10/04/2001; 08:52:35 MDT - Msg ID: 62912)
war update
http://www.usagold.com
Snippet:

London Guardian

"He (Blair) is expected to probe Putin on the extent of likely Russian tolerance for military action, as well as assure the Russian leader that President Bush does not see force as the solution to the crisis"

**********
Comments:
One hopes that this is the view of the London Guardian and not the Blair Government. The solution to the problem IS
force. Overwhelming destructive military force on such a scale as any future terrorist will tremble in his boots when he thinks of attacking the US. And anybody who thinks any different really needs to go get their head examined by a specialist.
diehard
(10/04/2001; 08:53:21 MDT - Msg ID: 62913)
Russian Plane crushed into black sea
with 77 people on bord. According to sources the Ukraine army has shot down the aircraft with a missile during maneuver works by coincidence ?!

Who are the terrorists, if their own army is as dangerous as the terrorists?

Who likes to fly anymore ?

Better stay on the ground and hoard PMs, seems saver to me.
diehard
(10/04/2001; 08:53:22 MDT - Msg ID: 62914)
Russian Plane crushed into black sea
with 77 people on bord. According to sources the Ukraine army has shot down the aircraft with a missile during maneuver works by coincidence ?!

Who are the terrorists, if their own army is as dangerous as the terrorists?

Who likes to fly anymore ?

Better stay on the ground and hoard PMs, seems saver to me.
BR549
(10/04/2001; 09:38:41 MDT - Msg ID: 62915)
"The shortage of available five-year notes from among the $28 billion outstanding is being investigated by the U.S. Secret Service's Electronic Crime Taskforce as part of a probe to determine whether someone profited from the terrorist attacks. According to the Wall Street Journal, a single trade of $5 billion of five-year notes occurred. "
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AO7xiwBV_VHJlYXN1
"New York, Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Investors holding two-year, five-year, and 10-year Treasury debt can borrow money, using those securities as collateral, for almost nothing, because the demand to hold the safest investments exceeds the supply.

Such low rates -- the current five-year note can be borrowed overnight at a 0.05 percent interest rate, compared with 2.5 percent for loans between banks -- reflect a disruption in the way traders finance Treasury holdings that persists three weeks following the attacks on the World Trade Center.

Firms have been unable to borrow the notes they need in part because telecommunications connections have been disrupted and some of the new buyers who have flocked to the securities as a safe haven haven't participated in the securities lending market.

The Treasury Department can help determine what firms hold five-year notes by putting out a ``large position reporting'' request. The Department's reach goes beyond the 25 firms that trade directly to the Fed and includes hedge and mutual funds. Such a report would tell them who holds how much of the debt, which may be part of the reason it costs so much to borrow it.

The five-year Treasury note is among the most desired securities for investors seeking safety for money during times of economic or political turmoil. The yield on the five-year note is down 61 basis points since the attacks. It fell 20 basis points in the four days before Sept. 11. "


If this $5BB in one single trade was done on insider knowledge of the impending 911 disaster, then the person(s) responsible should be indicted and the individual and/or firms assets seized right along with bin Ladens. If the trade is merely a coincidence and not part of terrorist activities to profit, then the paper trail will show the "unlucky" timing of this trade.

Since the 5 year treasury is not as "safe" during these times of economic uncertainty, how about Gold. It is always safe during uncertain as well as certain times.

BR549
Usul
(10/04/2001; 10:43:00 MDT - Msg ID: 62916)
$400m buried in WTC
http://www.theadvertiser.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5936,2985311%255E462,00.html04oct01
"A VAULT buried under the rubble of the World Trade Centre held more than $405 million in gold and silver, the chairman of Canada's Scotiabank said..."
Usul
(10/04/2001; 10:44:58 MDT - Msg ID: 62917)
Conflicting views on gold sale: Is yellow metal gaining lustre?
http://www.dawn.com/2001/10/04/ebr1.htm"KARACHI, Oct 3: An all round confusion has enveloped the gem and jewellery market where leaders of the trade are expressing conflicting views about investors' interest in gold bar after losing confidence in the dollar, which has lost a considerable value in the last couple of days...

...people were sending dollar from the US and Dubai to buy gold bars..."
Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD
(10/04/2001; 10:58:21 MDT - Msg ID: 62918)
Hard assets... Easy access!
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Golden Goal




"Treasure chests throughout history
have been filled with gold, and not by idle choice."

-- R. Strauss

Gold Trail Update
(10/04/2001; 11:34:16 MDT - Msg ID: 62919)
The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated
The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.
site steward
(10/04/2001; 11:57:38 MDT - Msg ID: 62920)
Let this aticle's view of paper be your window to insight for bullion banking
http://news.ino.com/intraday/?storyid=DJN618435600Through this real-world example (albeit in a parallel DEBT market) this article does a nice job showing you hikers of the Gold Trail how to extrapolate such market mechanisms to anticipate situations in the GOLD market that you couldn't otherwise "see" directly.

The article talks about the impetus behind the U.S. Treasury Department's decision to auction 10-year notes today.

Excerpt:
-----------
The government said it is seeking to alleviate the dearth of collateral that has come amid staggering numbers of fails, or trades that can't be completed because scarcity prevents the borrower from returning collateral.

Though the fails were initially caused by systemic problems following the attacks, they have remained rampant as many of the world's biggest Treasury holders have clammed up on their lending in fear of not receiving the collateral back.

By adding more 10-year notes, Treasury hopes to make the repo market operate more smoothly, which could ease fears of large Treasury holders and encourage them to begin lending securities again.

In a statement, Treasury undersecretary for domestic finance Peter Fisher said the fails have begun to feed back on themselves and exacerbate the problem, which prompted Treasury to step in.

Fisher said the repo market remains crippled by the recent attacks, and that the department is selling the notes to alleviate the "cascading fails." He noted that the sale wasn't driven by any need for cash by the Federal government.-------------

As you can see, it is easy to "manufacture" suitable collateral in a "paper"-based market that accepts one form of paper as fungible (essentially "equal") for the repayment/replacement of other paper that had been lent/borrowed.

As history has amply demonstrated with bank runs in the old days of banking with gold coins, the bullion banking boys of today (and those who continue to play this game) are up against a unique demise of their own crafting. When demands by confidence-shaken depositors for withdrawals from the lending pool exceed the repayment rate by those with gold loans, or as loan defaults exceed the bank's capital, there is no manner of manufactured paper that can truly stand toe-to-toe with gold as a suitable substitute to reliquify the operations.

The futures markets are just a mockery, and the cascading failures of bullion banks would easily show everyone on Main Street the difference between the real wealth of tangible gold against the perceptions of paper-value in any form.

R.
Netking
(10/04/2001; 12:32:47 MDT - Msg ID: 62921)
"Military Strike is (just) First Step" - Powell
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20011003/ts/attacks_diplomacy_14.htmlSecretary of State Colin Powell said Wednesday a prospective military strike in Afghanistan against the al-Qaida terrorism network would be only the first step in the U.S. campaign against terrorism.

``This is the first phase of this operation,'' Powell said after receiving unqualified support from Qatar, a Persian Gulf emirate. ``I obviously cannot comment on what might happen in the future.''

As Powell left open the possibility of taking the U.S. fight beyond Afghanistan, he offered assurances that ``we are not looking for conflict with other nations. . . "
------------------------------------------------------------
You get the feeling that things are so very different this time around from that of 1990-91 . . . it's a whole new world (order). . .
site steward
(10/04/2001; 12:35:51 MDT - Msg ID: 62922)
FREE silver! a final reminder...
The judging of the essay portion of the contest is progessing nicely, but I've been asked once again to address this "housekeeping" item:

A reminder to all first-time posters who have been promised a silver eagle in conjunction with our recent contest period (Sept 24-30). I've already heard from many of you, but I have a sense that there may be one or two of you out there who have not yet taken the last step to secure your claim to your metal.

If you were emboldened to make your first post to the forum during this time, the final NECESSARY step to claim your one ounce US Silver Eagle is to send a note to me (sitemaster@usagold.com) alerting me to the specific post which was your first.

And to make life easiest on our treasury department and our mailing room, please also include/verify your accurate mailing address so that Marie can successfully send you your metal. (Those who have already sent me e-mails are encouraged to follow up with the vital shipping info. Thanks!!)

Thanks again for your new (and continuing) participation!
Boxman
(10/04/2001; 12:37:47 MDT - Msg ID: 62923)
Soon, the gold charts will look like this chart.
http://www.stls.frb.org/images/publications/usfd/page8.gifNo comment, the chart is self explanatory.
site steward
(10/04/2001; 13:12:37 MDT - Msg ID: 62924)
Fed adds over $14 billion at new low rate
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/011004/nat000322_2.htmlWith the FOMC target now down to a 39 year low for interbank lending, the Fed entered the open market for the first time since the meeting to inject $14.5 billion into banking reserves, even though the free market trading of funds was in line with the target-- 2.44 percent in morning dealings.

Of this amount, $4 billion was added with 28-day repo agreements, and the remaining $10.5 billion was added using 7-day RPs.

"How high's the water, Momma?"

"It's over your neck and risin'!"

R.
site steward
(10/04/2001; 14:02:36 MDT - Msg ID: 62925)
One Week Ago... and This Week: Paper and Gold
This is a review of last week's comments to show where we've been, followed by this week's comments to show where we are.

MY PREVIOUS WEEK's COMMENTS: (with some grammatical corrections)
(9/26/01) ---Eurosystem gold reserves steady, foreign currency reserves decline---

In the latest week's portfolio adjustments among the Eurosystem of central banks, the net position in foreign currency was decreased by EUR 100 million to EUR 272.4 billion.

By contrast, the value of gold reserve assets remained untouched at EUR 128.229 billion (12,531 tonnes).

I expect to see significant adjustments in next week's consolidated financial statement -- in light of the quarterly mark-to-market revaluation operations for these foreign currency and gold reserves which will occur this coming Friday [Sept. 28th].

From the previous revaluation, as of today the dollar has thus far fallen from $0.848 per euro to $0.922 per euro. This will diminish the book value of the Eurosystem's foreign currency assets.

Meanwhile, the Europeans can't be terribly pleased that the the paper-dominated gold markets have thus far handed them a stagnant gold market (as priced in euros) to compensate them for the dollar's fall. At the moment of last quarter's revaluation, an ounce of gold was valued by the LBMA's "free market" (in Rothschild's London fixing office) at EUR 318.28. Currently, gold is being quoted slightly off at EUR 317. Wanna bet it clears the previous mark by Friday a.m.?

I can't say that London players will "cooperate", but I'm sure the Eurosystem authorities would nevertheless like to see gold trading above EUR 318.28 on Friday for the purposes of their quarterly revaluation.

Hopefully, this gives you a better idea regarding the future of Eurosystem support for honest gold markets and valuation.

Currently the gold market remains fundamentally the same (perhaps stressed a bit more with the passage of time), that is to say, it is still dominated by paper trading. However, through these commentaries you should be starting to see that the political will with respect to gold is truly "not as before", as ANOTHER might say. In time, the market will naturally reflect this change, now likely sooner rather than later -- owing to the added stresses of 9-11.
-----------

MY COMMENTS FOR THIS WEEK:

We'll folks, they pulled it off, although London didn't cooperate as early in the day as necessary for the fullest benefit of the European central banks� books. The London p.m. fixing of gold in terms of euros tipped the scales at EUR 321.20, but alas, it is the a.m. fix that Frankfurt looks to for guidance in its revaluation process, and that early fixing was lower.

Nevertheless, the official book value at which the Eurosystem now holds its gold for this quarter has climbed from EUR 318.28 per ounce to EUR 318.53 per ounce. This resulted in a valuation increase of EUR 97 million, but was offset by EUR 90 million through a 9 tonnes gold sale (likely the Dutch CB) to complete the second annual phase of the Washington Agreement.

The EuroSystem of Central Banks now hold total gold reserves (metal in hand and receivables) valued at EUR 128.236 billion.

Looking at the other pile of primary reserves in the form of foreign currency, the week's drawdown of these paper assets (valued at EUR 500 million) paled in comparison to the losses taken by the quarterly weakness of foreign paper versus the euro.

From the previous revaluation, the strength of dollar holdings fell from 84.8 cents per euro to 91.3 cents per euro.

The strength of yen holdings fell from 105.37 yen per euro to 109.02 yen per euro.

(And the SDR fell from 0.681 SDRs per euro to 0.710 SDRs per euro.)

The resulting hit taken by the Eurosystem on the valuation of its foreign currency holdings was EUR 13.2 billion -- a paper loss that can be expected to grow with any future weakness of the dollar and yen. Currently, the Eurosystem's net position in foreign currency is still a bloated EUR 258.7 billion.

Given the structure of Eurosystem reserves, it is easy to see how rising gold values can act to compensate for falling foreign currency values. The big question is, will the Eurosystem be willing to eat their paper losses, or will there be an effort to limit the expected losses with a preemptive flight from the dollar (and yen)? And no matter what the Eurosystem does. What will the private and commercial interests in the wide world do? They won't take unnecessary predictable losses, that's for sure.

Gold has a new role on the international scene, folks. Tell your friends to wake up and "smell the coffee". Got gold? Get you some!

Randy
Netking
(10/04/2001; 14:11:07 MDT - Msg ID: 62926)
New gold-marketing drive launched
http://www.miningweekly.co.za/?show=11492Snippet:
"The gold-mining industry unveiled plans this week for a major gold marketing initiative aimed at increasing demand for gold jewellery.The proposed $200-million annual investment follows a rigorous and independent review of the case for marketing gold by the management consulting firm McKinsey & Company, as well as extensive discussions within the global gold industry.

"With the support of gold producers from across the world, small and large, we intend to launch this campaign in the spring of 2002," said Randall Oliphant, chairperson of the Gold Marketing Initiative Steering Committee and President and CEO of Barrick Gold Corporation.

"This sustained and focused commitment would be beyond any marketing effort that our industry has undertaken before." A marketing campaign of this scale could grow demand over baseline for gold jewellery by as much as 340 tons to 500 tons of gold annually by 2006.

The plans call for leveraging the current marketing efforts of the World Gold Council by merging the new effort with the existing advertising resources of the council. The marketing initiative would include consumer advertising, trade marketing initiatives and public relations.

"What we are really talking about is one coherent marketing campaign with contributions from gold producers � World Gold Council members and non-members alike," said Oliphant.

"It is time to take this compelling single effort to the next stage and compete for consumer dollars." It is time for gold to do what Gucci does for luxury apparel, DeBeers does for diamonds, and other industries do to promote their own product. . . . "
Netking
(10/04/2001; 14:17:41 MDT - Msg ID: 62927)
World Gold Council Launches The First Global Online Gold Magazine
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/011004/05032634_1.htmlSnippet:
The World Gold Council announced today the launch of a global online magazine Gold Inspirations. Devoted to all things gold, the Web site provides consumers with a unique insight into gold's history and heritage while exploring today's golden lifestyles.

Gold Inspirations, www.goldinspirations.org introduces key personalities in the world of gold jewelry - the movers and shakers, trendsetters, designers and goldsmiths, and entrepreneurs . . .

Utilizing the latest technology available, the interactive format blends a striking combination of animated graphics, video and consumer interface design. The site guides consumers on a golden tour of the latest, hottest collections from the world's most acclaimed designers. From watches, rings and belts to the very designs sported by celebrities, the magazine contains an extensive directory detailing where to purchase all items showcased in the magazine. Additional offerings on the site include: special events, interviews, technical breakthroughs, fashion and lifestyle news and more. "In building on gold's current popularity, this was the ideal time to maximize consumer interest in gold," says John Calnon, WGC's Senior Vice President, Jewelry, Americas.

"Gold Inspirations, the only online magazine of its kind, reveals gold as our most coveted adornment in jewels, fashion, cosmetics and interiors. The magazine reinforces the WGC's position as the leading authority on gold."
------------------------------------------------------------
Is what you have, as Good as Gold?
Cavan Man
(10/04/2001; 14:18:29 MDT - Msg ID: 62928)
site steward
Hail noble steward of informational discourse! I think the foreign currency portion will be handled with kid gloves for the benefit of the current global monetary regime while the rise in the POG will more than offset any losses. That must be their "getting to the other side" plan eh? We await the trigger mechanism. Mankind awaits freegold. (I'm still waiting too)..CM
Netking
(10/04/2001; 14:26:46 MDT - Msg ID: 62929)
Taliban hiring: "Anti-aircraft shooters in demand"
http://www.geostrategy-direct.com/geostrategy-direct/Snippet:
The ruling Taliban militia in Afghanistan has begun hiring sharpshooters who can target U.S. military aircraft for any upcoming raids.

The Taliban is believed to have some SA-2 surface-to-air missiles, along with hundreds of anti-aircraft missiles, mostly SA-7 and SA-14 shoulder-fired missiles and an undetermined number of U.S.-made Stinger anti-aircraft missile left over from the CIA-run covert action program to arm the Afghan rebels. U.S. officials are hoping that the batteries from the Stingers will be dead.

Afghanistan also has three types of anti-aircraft guns, many of which are deployed in mountain crevasses. Pakistan's Urdu-language Islamabad newspaper reported last week that the Taliban government put out the call for sharpshooters in tribal areas. The shooters are being offered pay of 20,000 to 30,000 rupees per month for their work in shooting at U.S. aircraft.

The Taliban also are offering a reward of 50,000 rupees for any sharpshooter that shoots down a U.S. aircraft.The U.S. military is expected to operate a range of aircraft in the region, including warplanes, surveillance aircraft, airborne warning and control aircraft and unmanned aerial vehicles. Helicopters also are expected to be involved in military action. . ."
------------------------------------------------------------
Let's hope that the people from this area are not the potent force this time around that they were against the Russians when they downed the best Mig's & gunships with what appeared to be ease . . .
Beowulf
(10/04/2001; 14:30:41 MDT - Msg ID: 62930)
Reports Swirl Out of Afghanistan of Panic and Taliban Defections
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nyt/20011004/wl/reports_swirl_out_of_afghanistan_of_panic_and_taliban_defections_1.htmlInteresting article at the link provided. So, should the U.S. now go into Afghanistan with food and farming equipment instead of weapons?

-Beowulf
Beowulf
(10/04/2001; 14:38:40 MDT - Msg ID: 62931)
Certified Gold Soars as Economic and Political Unrest Unsettle America
Sorry, no link available.

My latest e-mail from those idiots at Blanchard had the following to say, see below. I'm glad I was able to build my 12-piece type set in the last 3 months before the market started changing.

-Beowulf


***********
Certified Gold Soars as Economic and Political Unrest Unsettle America

Bruce Amspacher - September 25, 2001

Certified gold coins are soaring in price as the rare coin market responds to the economic and political uncertainty
that has escalated since the tragic events of September 11. "We are selling PCGS-certified gold coins by the boxcar," says Richard Schwary of California Numismatic Investments, Inc., in Inglewood, California.

"Nice quality $20 gold pieces in MS63 through MS66 are in great demand," Schwary continued. "In addition, any gold coins in MS64 are flying out the door. That includes any and all of the coins that make up the 12-piece gold type set, including the Type Two gold dollar.

"Overall, the prices for most popular certified gold coins are up about 20% in the past two weeks. That's understandable, as we sold over 500 coins within a few days and we were totally out of coins after a week. It was necessary to go into a strong sellers� market to replenish inventory."

What about bullion coins such a Krugerrands, Maple Leafs and American Eagles? "The bullion market hasn't moved upwards as strongly as the certified coin market."
**********

BR549
(10/04/2001; 15:02:04 MDT - Msg ID: 62932)
"Desperate Taliban troops are taking thousands of boys and men from their families and forcing them into the military in an attempt to bolster their thinning ranks, according to recently arriving refugees in Pakistan. "
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,35748,00.html"Nobody supports the Taliban now," he said. "The only people they have are the ones they are taking from the streets. And how long do you think they will fight when the Americans come?"

Taliban military are running like dogs before the fight even begins. Add kidnapping of children to the cowards crime list.

I think that since the Taliban's goal is to live in the 15th Century, that they need to relo to the mountains as soon as possible. The World Alliance will feed the general population this cold winter while the idiots in the Taliban look down from afar. Who would have thunk it?

Brrrrrrrrr

BR549
sector
(10/04/2001; 15:05:16 MDT - Msg ID: 62933)
@NetKing About those Taliban AAA Batteries and "Sharpshooters"
They may have a bit of difficulty operating their weapons enveloped in an aerosol mist delivered from high altitude.
goldroadlx7
(10/04/2001; 15:12:36 MDT - Msg ID: 62934)
test
test
Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD
(10/04/2001; 15:29:21 MDT - Msg ID: 62935)
Did someone say "Certified coins are flying"? Here's an ad we first ran on July 18th here at the forum
http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/liberty.html

GOLD

Recommended Opportunities

details available from Centennial
by phone only

TOLL FREE
(US) 800-869-5115
(Can) 1-800-294-9462
(Aus) 0011-800-2761-2761
(EU) 00-800-2760-2760

Beowulf
(10/04/2001; 16:27:06 MDT - Msg ID: 62936)
PHASES OF A BULL MARKET
I got the following quote from another site. I won't post the link because it's in direct competition with USAGold for sales of coins, but I liked their analysis of what a Bull Market was so I'll just post the following:

**Snip**

"PHASES OF A BULL MARKET"

1. The first phase of a bull market - is the one where only the most far-sighted professionals accumulate the item - and they accumulate early, at bargain prices. In the first phase, the public remains very disinterested and the item remains very much out of favor.

2. The second phase of a bull market - is usually the longest phase, and is when professionals move in and assume large positions. In this phase, the public begins to gradually turn bullish.

3. In the third (and final) phase of a bull market - speculation and greed become rampant, rumors begin to circulate, and the public jumps in with both feet. The 1979-80 speculative blow-off in precious metals, when even Merrill Lynch and the Wall Street gold-phobes jumped into the market (at or near the top), was a classic illustration of the third, speculative, blow-off phase in a bull market.

It is a moot point as to whether we are in the first or second phase of a long-term bull market in the metals - the point is, we are in a bull market and in the strongest price upsurge in gold, silver and metals shares since the mid-1980s; and the move should last for several years - perhaps well into the next century."

**Un-snip**

I guess according to this my guess is we are just ending phase one and are at the start of phase two. Get yours now, bargain prices are disappearing.

-Beowulf
Black Blade
(10/04/2001; 16:33:59 MDT - Msg ID: 62937)
Jobless Claims Surge by 71,000
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/011004/economy_5.html
Claims for Unemployment Benefits Shoot Up by 71,000 to the Highest Level in Nine Years

Snippit:

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Fallout from the terror attacks is rippling through the economy, catapulting new claims for unemployment benefits to a nine-year high. Layoffs mounted for workers in travel and tourism last week, and economists believe the jobless picture will get worse in coming months. Even before the attacks, the nation's unemployment rate had risen to 4.9 percent in August from 4.5 percent, the biggest one-month jump in more than six years, as businesses eliminated 113,000 jobs.

On Friday, the government will release its first monthly employment report since the Sept. 11 attacks. Many economists are expecting the report will show that the jobless rate climbed to 5 percent in September and businesses slashed payrolls by at least 100,000.

Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" continues to grow. I said that this would happen even before the terrorist attacks because of a very deep Recession is forming. The attacks only helped to push the economy a bit further down slope as it slips into oblivion. Gold and Silver insurance is more critical than ever for portfolio insurance. The other shoe could drop anytime. I have been in the high country for the last couple of days, yet I heard a report on short wave (BBC) that US investors have been fleeing mutual funds as net redemptions far exceed purchases. The question is - if individual investors are bailing out of the market, then who is buying? The question appears to be company share buybacks and some institutional purchases. This can't go on too long as funds are short cash and companies are experiencing a period of declining earnings. No one in their right mind would buy shares at ever higher prices when earnings are declining sharply. Be careful and lookout for "number one."
CoBra(too)
(10/04/2001; 16:36:23 MDT - Msg ID: 62938)
@ Beowolf - Head on !
http://www.the-privateer.com/subs/goldcomm/d-index.html Sir, that's probably what most of us think at this site.
The other side of the coin is best expressed in the Privateers charts.

Best cb2
Black Blade
(10/04/2001; 16:41:50 MDT - Msg ID: 62939)
Polaroid employee pension fund short $100 million
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/011003/n03277702_1.html
Snippit:

BOSTON, Oct 3 (Reuters) - The pension at Polaroid Corp. (NYSE:PRD) is $100 million short of being fully funded as an increasing number of employees take payouts and leave the beleaguered instant camera and film maker, according to a letter sent to workers.

Black Blade: How safe is your pension? How prepared are you for this Deepening Recession? As I said - lookout for "number one." It is going to get much worse. Think of it as the coming "Perfect Storm."
Black Blade
(10/04/2001; 16:48:12 MDT - Msg ID: 62940)
Forbes Body Count
http://www.forbes.com/2001/01/30/layoffs.html
The body count now exceeds 810,000 nonessential "Bags O' Bones" cast aside upon the "Bone Pile." Actually, Forbes is a bit behind as the the number is over 1.3 million so far this year. Even Warren Buffett today said that this Recession will be long and severe. Hang on for the ride and prepare as best you can. PMs are just one step in personal survival.
Black Blade
(10/04/2001; 16:52:16 MDT - Msg ID: 62941)
Aether Systems says cut 25 pct of staff
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/011004/n04137441_1.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK, Oct 4 (Reuters) - Aether Systems Inc. (NM:AETH), a maker of wireless data products, said Thursday it has slashed 280 jobs, or 25 percent of its workforce, as part of a cost- cutting plan designed to offset weak market conditions related to a softened U.S. economy.

Black Blade: Oh-oh! Overlooked "Bones."
Netking
(10/04/2001; 16:59:36 MDT - Msg ID: 62942)
General: Action will come 'without warning' - a.k.a. "The Plan"
http://www.cnn.com/2001/US/10/03/ret.mccaffrey.war.plan/Snippet:
Retired Army Gen. Barry McCaffrey, said:
"that those against the United States in its war on terrorism would "be killed suddenly, in significant numbers and without warning. . . "

McCaffrey identified multiple objectives: to increase domestic security, build a strong coalition and finally "take the gloves off and use integrated military power to find, fix and destroy" terrorist organizations.

He told . . ., "We are going to disrupt these people through preemptive attack ... we will deceive them, we will run psyops on them, at selected points and times they will be killed suddenly, in significant numbers, and without warning."

"Tomahawk missiles, 2000 pound laser guided weapons dropped from B2's or F22's at very high altitude, remote control, booby traps, blackmail and at places, small groups of soldiers or SEALs will appear in total darkness, blow down the doors and kill them at close range with automatic weapons and hand grenades,". . .

McCaffrey went on to say: "We will find their money and freeze it. We will arrest their front agents. We will operate against their recruiting and transportation functions. We will locate their training areas and surveil or mine them. We will isolate them from their families.

"We will try to dominate their communication function and alternately listen, jam or spoof it. We will make their couriers disappear. If we can find out how they eat, or play or receive rewards, or where they sleep -- we will go there and kill them by surprise."

McCaffrey said the military component would be "a supporting but lesser aspect of a strategy that will be based fundamentally on diplomatic and economic leverage to compel cooperation with international law."

The retired general said there would need to be substantial and costly efforts to reduce the "environmental factors" that feed "extremist madness." That would include "dramatically increased" international aid to address the poverty of Palestinians, Afghans, Sudanese and others, he said.

A U.S. military official who was shown McCaffrey's comments said they were the "insights of a very smart guy." Another official said they do not contain any national secrets, but they do accurately reflect the strategy the United States has adopted.

In the words of this official: "It's the plan."
Black Blade
(10/04/2001; 16:59:45 MDT - Msg ID: 62943)
Buffett Sees Recession 'Deep, Extended'
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20011004/bs/financial_buffett_recession_dc_1.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Legendary investor and multibillionaireWarren Buffett says the United States is in a recession that probably is ``relatively deep and extended.''

Black Blade: Old Warren is a little late to the party (as are practically all institutional analysts). But he is correct. To put it mildly - The Recession is going to be ``relatively deep and extended.''
slingshot
(10/04/2001; 17:21:39 MDT - Msg ID: 62944)
FIREPOWER
Americas Attack Helicopters are the most advanced in the world. FLIR, Foward Looking Infra Red, is impossible to escape. Combined with Hell Fire Missles and either a 20mm or 30mm auto cannon, I for sure would not what to be sitting on a stationary AA batery after nightfall for any amount of money. The Russians used The Hind Mi21 gunship and although it was heavily armored and had plenty of firepower it is slow compared to the speed and agility of of todays advanced gunships. Oh, Does anyone remember PUFF the Magic Dragon.
Slingshot
Black Blade
(10/04/2001; 17:25:53 MDT - Msg ID: 62945)
RE: CB2 - Athabasca Tar Sand

The Athabasca Tar Sands (actually an asphalt) yields a good quality crude oil. The downside is that even though it is at least a 600+ billion bbl Resource, the costs are variable enough that only a fraction of that is in the Reserve category at current prices. There are few players here. Suncor (SU) is one major player that is doing quite well refining this deposit. This oil is "mined" and refined for a good quality light sweet crude product. The problem is that like all mining concerns not all of the deposit can be "mined" economically at current petroleum prices. My opinion is should oil prices surge much higher and war in the ME disrupts oil supply, then Canada could very well find itself in the enviable position of being the OPEC of the "Great White North." Cheers!

- Black Blade

AllanC
(10/04/2001; 18:14:51 MDT - Msg ID: 62946)
Operation Infinite Justice...er....pardon me....Enduring Freedom
Now I know this is off topic, but a lot of people here keep bringing up their version of infinite justice. So it must be discussed.

How are we going to do this?

Well I'm going to ask our local "armchair generals" BR549, Tedw, uponroof, sector and so on... this question.

Now uponroof says, well we gotta accept collateral damage. So the way I figure it, one American life is worth at least 10 Afgani lives, OK so a figure like 70,000 Afganis should just about do it. Now how we gonna do it? Well I think Kabul is almost deserted now, with perhaps one Taliban to one civilian, nuking the city will almost certainly take care of 70,000 Afganis and rid us of some 35,000 Taliban. Sounds like a plan, it's cost efficient and as tedw says, they will $hit in their boots and dread they ever contemplated attacking us, after all the Taliban must be terrorist since they are not "with us". And using the same logic, so are the people of Afganistan.
Yes, they will be so scared of us and this will act as a deterrence. And that makes the "armchair generals" feel good too. And look at it this way...that's a 2 to 1 "kill ratio" with a 1000% return on our investment!

But the question remains....how are we going to get at Osamy Bin Larden if he is indeed guilty. He could just hide in the mountains while we're bombing the daylights out of the Taliban.

Now to my way of thinking, the Taliban are not liked by the people there. Here's another plan. Why don't we just sit back, relax and try to find a way to get the people of Afganistan to do it for us. After all there is a Northern Alliance, which we could arm and is a force to be reckoned with. We could use special forces to assist in a limited capacity. We could try to find a way to get food to the people to give them the strength to break the Taliban yolk. And with the Taliban gone, Bin Larden would be sure to follow.His days would be numbered.

Concerted bombing and even worse occupying the country (if it could be done) might impress them, but I fear it would only create more problems in the long run. Do we need to be seen in this light by the Muslim world.



AUtistic
(10/04/2001; 18:36:36 MDT - Msg ID: 62947)
reflections
Everyones so busy pointing fingers, & falling for Gov't/media hype! First, look in the mirror, then out the window,of your house, or auto!!! THERE THEY ARE!!!!!!!!!
annie
(10/04/2001; 18:56:24 MDT - Msg ID: 62948)
@AllanC
You may be interested to know (or not) that when i was growing up, the only anger that I was "allowed" was righteous indignation. I still can't help but enjoy a good fling of "righteous indignation".

The more off-base someone else is, the more satisfying my own self-righteous anger. Well. You have to be a bit careful about it. For it to work, It has to be deserved. If someone is for carpet bombing innocents, then righteous indignation has a place. But if you are only imagining that is their position, well. What can I say. When one harbors anger, righteous indignation is like a gift--anger that is "worthy", sanctimonious.

Now. The idea that I have seen that appeals to me--naive though I certainly am--was on Fox today. A man who has lived with the Afghani Rebels and written a book (yes. he was promoting his book. I am sure.) was saying that what we should do is to occupy the cities--take the low ground, as he described it--and let the Taliban take the high ground. Let them take the mountains and the caves. He said that they have wanted to live in the 15th century--okay, boys, this is your opportunity. You can either starve in the mountains/caves, or come down and surrender.

In the meantime, you (Americans) are in the cities giving out free food and medical aid to the general populace.

What's the problem?

I apologize if this is too emotional. Sometimes I get that way.

annie
AllanC
(10/04/2001; 19:34:42 MDT - Msg ID: 62949)
Annie
Anger is OK , especially when you know you are right. But anger must be properly directed.

The notion that the cities and roads could be taken and they could be starved, wouldn't work I'm afraid. They would probably welcome that. Lots of stored supplies in the mountains, guerrilla hit and run tactics, logistical nightmare to control all access to food, horrible winter conditions for any occupation forces etc. would make it impossible. And I fear the general population would not welcome an occupying army, even if they hate the Taliban
USAGOLD
(10/04/2001; 19:45:17 MDT - Msg ID: 62950)
A Note to My Old Friend, Lenny Kaplan. . . .
The following was written by my old friend and trading partner, Leonard Kaplan of Prospector Management (one of the few times we have agreed on anything over the past few years) besides trading lots of "stickers" about "players" both in and out of the industry, and lots of laughs even as we disagreed on the gold wars. . . . .

Time for me to get up on the pulpit and lecture.
Please forgive the rantings and ravings, but I have
never seen a more idiotic idea than the plan by the
World Gold Council to spend $200 Million to promote
gold by solely and strictly pushing gold jewelry.

Listen, it has been proven, beyond all debate, that
the market for jewelry is elastic. As prices rise,
consumption drops quickly. And, in a global economic
environment of recession, and possibly depression
in some nations, to be promoting jewelry is simply
insane, as sales will mostly drop as economies
worsen and prices rise.

Why can't they just spend some, if not all, of the
money promoting gold as an investment, especially
due to its performance the last few weeks and the
uncertainty of other investment arenas?

The World Gold Council puts out these wonderful
academic analyses of how gold can be a diversifier
in investment portfolios. It puts out wonderfully
detailed arguments of why gold should be acquired
as an investment, and yet... now it wants to spend
$200 million promoting jewelry at the exact wrong
time.

They have the opportunity to really make a
difference and they are throwing it away. At the
most opportune chance that they have had in a
decade. It is truly sad.

No, make that tragic. No, make that stupid and
tragic.

It can also be reflection on those that fund the
World Gold Council that they could allow such
activities. Instead of hiring some fancy
advertising agency, it might behoove them to
solicit the advice of seasoned professionals
who have some understanding of the markets.

MK Note: Hats off on this one, Lenny, I'll tell you what: We can get more mileage for them out of $20 million than they'll get out of the $200 million, and that's after our $5 million in fees. (Smile.)

Hope you see this. . . . (And thanks to Chris Powell for sending this little nugget to me.)

Rugbug
(10/04/2001; 20:03:19 MDT - Msg ID: 62951)
pog
I wonder what the first clash of our military in afganistan will do to the pog. Will it surge 10-20-30 or will it move past 350. Can anyone tell me more what is likely to happen to the price of gold once we engage in war. Rugbug
sector
(10/04/2001; 20:15:07 MDT - Msg ID: 62952)
@AllenC About the Afganistan Methods...
...to eliminate the Taliban but not the mass of poor, indigent goat farmers.

The Taliban aren't in the cities and towns anymore so the problem is to find them. We don't have sufficient infantry there so the opportunity is to kill them without using infantry or artillery [which we don't have there either].

There are limited high value, nuisance assets in the Taliban's possession which should be neutralized in about 6 hours of air interdiction, maybe less.

Having done that we are still left with the Russian's 1980 problem...find a disbursed enemy [on the mountainsides away from the goat grass and farmers] and then kill the Taliban without exposing allied infantry to the impossible terrain.

There are two distinct methods for achieving the above objectives. The later objective is accomplished by employing a wind blown, aerosol mist delivered in cannisters [previously classified as a surplus problem] from high altitude. The former is done...well...it is being done in an ingenious manner.

The Russians will be in awe.

Black Blade
(10/04/2001; 20:27:21 MDT - Msg ID: 62953)
World Gold Council and Jewelry promotion

I would venture a "guess" why Gold is being promoted for its ornamental use rather than as portfolio insurance or investment vehicle. First, "lets follow the money." The two largest contributors to the WGC are AngloGold (AU) and Barrick (ABX). Simply put - they cannot afford a higher Gold price. If Gold were to rise significantly they would go bankrupt and be taken over by the counter parties to their forward sold Gold positions. They are in dire straits now as AngloGold is experiencing severe declining earnings and Barrick is and has been deeply in the red for a few quarters now. A rising POG would likely result in at very least similar problems as those experienced by Ashanti (ASL) and Cambior (CBJ) and even could go tits up. I could go into details but I have posted on this subject several times before. So why does the WGC push jewelry over insurance and investment? The answer is obvious - "follow the money." Better yet, as far as the WGC is concerned - "Don't bite the hand that feeds you." Cheers!

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(10/04/2001; 20:39:36 MDT - Msg ID: 62954)
RE: sector - "A Modest Proposal"

I was going to say this several days ago, however, it is not a "politically correct" solution. Since we are fighting an unconventional "war" against an enemy that does not respect the traditional rules of engagement using terrorist tactics, I have a suggestion that would solve several problems. First, we have surplus chemical and biological agents that the US military is attempting to dispose of by extreme high temperature incineration at installations such as Dugway Proving Grounds and South Tooele Army Depot, Utah. Why not just dump this nerve gas, old mustard gas, and bio-toxins in the Hindu Kush where the Al-Qaeda Cult and Taliban militants have their hideouts. Not only that, these regions have virtually no civilian population. We unload toxic agents that we wish to dispose of and exterminate a lot of cockroaches (terrorists) at the same time. Problem solved. No muss - no fuss. Hey - just a thought. Cheers!

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(10/04/2001; 21:16:11 MDT - Msg ID: 62955)
Natural Gas Prices Set to Rise

There have been some reports that Natural Gas storage injection rates have been higher than normal. It now appears that injection rate storage data has been grossly overestimated. I am awaiting the official news release, however, lower injection rates have gone unnoticed and even declined significantly over the last few weeks. It is quite possible that NG supplies may not be as large as previously stated. Colder weather has also come to the Midwestern region and energy use is about to increase as we enter into the winter season with shorter darker overcast and colder days when energy use increases for indoor lighting and heating. This comes at a time when we are in a Deepening Recession where higher energy costs will only hit the bottom line especially hard.

Word just out is that the Kalifornia utility Southern California Edison (SCE) has entered into a "secret" deal last week with the Kalifornia PUC to raise Ute rates. Rate increases are to go into effect in order to postpone the bankruptcy of Southern California Edison (SCE). Looks as if the Grasshoppers will have to bite the bullet again and likely will payout to save SCE form the same fate as Kalifornia Ute PG&E. The higher rates will only aggravate the Recession in the state. Looks to get even more ugly.

- Black Blade
AllanC
(10/04/2001; 21:24:07 MDT - Msg ID: 62956)
Sector
I'm afraid there are very few targets for missiles. If you occupy their roads and cities, they can become nomadic warriors, constantly on the move. They travel light, hauling around their armor and such with them. A 2 million dollar cruise missile or even a jet fired missile to take out a small howitzer position is simply not cost effective. Unlike Sadam Hussein , the Taliban have no infrastructure to take out.

Spreading an aerosol would only kill innocent mountain villagers and we don't need that kind of notoriety. They would be nearly impossible to find in isolated groups in the mountains. Indeed like the Viet Cong, they would probably live amongst the mountain villagers. Would the Russians be in awe if we were to do this? I don't think so...

Find a way to help the people do it, it may take time and ingenious planning, but with a regime so hated and detested it would eventually fall.
BR549
(10/04/2001; 21:46:03 MDT - Msg ID: 62957)
Armchair General to Armchair Liberal, well since you ask---

AllanC (msg#: 62946)---

"Well I'm going to ask our local "armchair generals" BR549, Tedw, uponroof, sector and so on... this question. ut the question remains....how are we going to get at Osamy Bin Larden if he is indeed guilty. He could just hide in the mountains while we're bombing the daylights out of the Taliban."

First of all, there is no doubt that vinny Laden is indeed guilty�let's see the bombings of two American Embassy's in Africa, the WTC bombing in 1993 (he is under indictment and on the FBI's 10 most wanted list for pre-911), and oh, yeah and according to the Brit's, the Pakistani's and others today, also guilty of 911. Second of all, he will never be able to relax and you would know this if you knew anything about Mountain Division Special Forces.

There are two phases to this new war of the 21st Century, economic and military. The World Alliance is having a tremendous success in the economic war.

It is amazing to me the extent that some will go to in order to take the other side of any argument. Is there anyone on earth that deserves punishment for a crime? If not terrorist, then who? As George Carlin said somebody just needs to have a talk with McVeigh, "look Tim, No! Not good!"

Why don't we just all look the other way and the problem will surely go away, won't it? Why don't we just take the advice of Charles Swab and just relax? Take a deep breath and wait. You armchair liberals don't seem to understand that is what we have already done. The Saudi's offered to turn over vinny in Clinton's administration but we refused. No evidence for extradition according to Bill Richardson, on FoxNews last night. And look what happened.

According to our best friend Tony Blair, the Taliban has one choice�turn over vinny or relinquish power. Your faulty reasoning is this�the Muslim world has got nothing to do with terrorism. vinny is just the first step in the eradication of terrorism, not the end, just the beginning. Iraq, Iran, and others who harbor these scum will be the end.

Now why don't you just take a deep breath and relax while the World Alliance does the right thing for you. While you are relaxing, go buy some physical Gold and then anytime you feel that you are smarter than all of the rest of us, Blair, Bush, and the majority of the leaders of the rest of the world, who want to prevent the murder of more of the world's innocents now, you can look at your Gold and then at least you will feel better about just being able to relax and dictate the "right thing to do" to the rest of us "dumb" impatient types.

BR549
Galearis
(10/04/2001; 21:49:02 MDT - Msg ID: 62958)
@AllanC and annie
Your Afganistan postsHas it occurred to anyone here that if the Taliban has disbursed to the mountains to conduct a guerrila war against invading US forces, then there is really no need for the US to invade at all. The US and allies have already destroyed the Taliban by (their) default of leaving behind their trappings of power - what little infrastructure that remains to them and the systems therein to maintain their hold on their country.

This probably sounds a little witless, I know, but if the Afganistani ruling masters have left the urban centres then they have relinquished all that they have won during their years of civil war against the other factions AND the Soviets.

I would not believe everything one reads or sees in the media along these lines. The Taliban will stay in the cities until it is untenable. Disinformation works both ways. At present the very threat of invasion is just as destructive (if not more so) than an actual US led miliary offensive. If allied infiltration commando style efforts are as efficient as believed, these actions too will add to fear, disorder and breakdown of the the Taliban hold on the country. The refugee stream out of the cities right now is a true measure of the chaos in that country.

Also: Bin Ladin will never be taken alive. His very followers will kill him before they let this happen. It is even more likely that he will fade away into the mountains with the rest of the dedicated nihilists.

Bush is right about one thing. It WILL be a long war. Probably one that will last as long as the US exists. The danger, the real danger, is that of escalation. Escalation will prolong this indefinitely and in unforseen directions. The United States and its allies truly are concocting a witches brew of events whereby the potential for a world war level event is not impossible.
sector
(10/04/2001; 21:49:29 MDT - Msg ID: 62959)
@ Black Blade You Got the killing Part Right...
...in the Taliban's mountain holes there are no civilians nearby to become "collateral damage". As to finding which specific ridge to spray...aahhh...there's the rub...and the awe from the Russians as we find them hole by hole.

The heightened activity at the CW storage sites is only for the problem of neutralization. Right?

One should not be surprised at the use of...aerosols. Did the President not say we would "smoke them out"? Who will quibble about the strength of the "smoke".

We have these weapons and should use them.

Again, WTC has forced us into the domain of a paradigm shift in which there are two and only two types of people. Those that understand the new truth [that we face fanatical, suicidal mass murderers inside and outside the US] and those that cling to the old dogma. ["Can't we all just get along"].

Happy to see you understand the new truth.
Horatio
(10/04/2001; 22:05:20 MDT - Msg ID: 62960)
Osama
Osama could cause a financial crisis simply by buying large amounts of gold which would trigger a dirivative crisis at J.P.Morgan and trillions of Dollars of losses would occur.....But that was going to happin anyway.......
uponroof
(10/04/2001; 22:44:08 MDT - Msg ID: 62961)
Allen C
Thanks for your thoughts. This is quite a passionate subject and all are entitled to their opinion. Thanks to the moderator for allowing leeway in this somewhat off topic discussion.

I am not as blindly hawkish as you may think. I am however very nervous about wasting time and allowing more terrorist operations to come online.

Fr'instance....

Let's pretend the terrorists have a few nuclear suitcase bombs capable of taking out 500K+ people at a time, if detonated in a major city.

Surprise!!! They probably do!!!

One can only pray that they are not in place yet.

Still worried about collateral damage?

We are at a major crossroads in the history of the world. This makes the 1950's bombshelter rush look like a 'This Old House' inspired home improvement trend. At least Kruschev was not suicidal.

I'm not interested in WORKING OUT DIFFERENCES. This is more dangerous than most gummint officials are admitting to (for obvious reasons). Russian countries, after the breakup, sold 140 suitcases to the highest bidder. 80 are accounted for, 60 are not. From what they say they are 1/5 the power of the Hiroshima bomb.

Still concerned about fairplay? How about survival?

check out: Netking (10/4/01; 16:59:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 62942) General: Action will come 'without warning' - a.k.a. "The Plan"

I saw this interview with MacCaffery and was encouraged. I hope he is in the loop and wise to what's really coming. Surgical removal is the best option, but not always possible, especially during Afghani winter and a 1 month delay.

So... if the best scenario (surgical removal) is not possible, best to err on the side of losing innocents versus a global nuclear winter. A few thousand 'villagers' is well worth a major US city (your sarcasm is closer to the truth than you know).

btw-collateral damage is a wonderful motivator. After just a few 'mistakes' Afghanis will be falling all over themselves to turn over Bin Laden and anybody else, whereas now they are only whimpering excuses. Yes it works.

I think we will eventually learn that Bush is biding time to locate these sleepers and their suitcases...NOT to build coalitions, pacify Arab nations, or ridiculous liberal interests. At least I hope that is the case!

I must believe that if all was secure domestically our retaliation would have started long ago. By now they are underground, harder to reach, and likely to require extensive collateral damage.

But then what's a few thousand third world innocent villagers compared to a major US city?

Sorta reminds me of Hiroshima.....God Bless those decision makers who believed in their hearts it was necessary. Don't you agree?
Usul
(10/05/2001; 00:51:04 MDT - Msg ID: 62962)
World Gold Council-
http://www1.internetwire.com/iwire/release_clickthrough?release_id=32634&category=Lifestyle-Launches The First Global Online Jewellery, er, Gold Magazine
View Yesterday's Discussion.

Usul
(10/05/2001; 00:55:20 MDT - Msg ID: 62963)
Terrorist attacks boosted gold but market pointed to rise before that says expert
http://news.excite.com/news/cp/011004/19/terrorist-attacks-boosted"They" do everything in their power to put down gold, even in supposedly positive reports.

"Analyzing a half-dozen crashes in the Dow-Jones average since 1974, he found gold rose roughly 10 per cent each time"

Are we to expect a mere 10 per cent? Is the intention to prevent anyone holding on after it has risen 10 per cent?
Netking
(10/05/2001; 01:01:01 MDT - Msg ID: 62964)
Ag - the squeeze?
There is more than a few stories going through cyber space currently from various locations about physical silver starting to show signs of drying up.

Apparently some dealers have been running dry on 100/Oz bars (and some coins)& have been ringing clients they've previously sold to offering to buy back the bars at a 10 cents/oz premium over current spot.

I heard of one sales entity selling 100 oz'ers at a 50 cents premium over spot, such is the demand it would seem?

1,000 oz bars don't seem to be affected to the same extent. It was said that The Canadian Mint was running low/out of some Ag inventory items also.

Anybody else heard anything etc on this topic?
Old Yeller
(10/05/2001; 01:58:30 MDT - Msg ID: 62965)
Richard Russell
http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-perl/bbs.pl?read=188541
Interesting insights from a market pro with a long track record.Note the comments on bonds,gold and the dangers of inflation.

I think he may be placing to much faith in the market's appraisal of inflation risks.After all,this is another off-shoot of the all knowing market that bid up NASDAQ 5100.Could it be that Mr. Russell is wearing euro blinders?

There is an alternative now'sir.
Spartacus
(10/05/2001; 02:05:34 MDT - Msg ID: 62966)
@Randy

site steward (10/4/01; 11:57:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 62920)
Let this aticle's view of paper be your window to insight for bullion banking
http://news.ino.com/intraday/?storyid=DJN618435600

"As you can see, it is easy to "manufacture" suitable collateral in a "paper"-based market that accepts one form of paper as fungible (essentially "equal") for the repayment/replacement of other paper that had been lent/borrowed".

Spartacus: The divergence between debt-service requirements on the one hand and the means to service the debt, on the other, is increasing. Is this in fact an attempt by the federal government to provide suitable collateral in order to reliquify the operations and thereby help the debt to be serviced ? Please correct me if I am wrong. I am just a novice trying to "follow in the footsteps of giants"
Netking
(10/05/2001; 03:47:45 MDT - Msg ID: 62967)
"We won't be another Czechoslovakia" - Ariel Sharon
http://www.jpost.com/Editions/2001/10/05/News/News.35755.htmlHal Lindsay comments on an important cross-road reached yesterday in the M.E. . . . . with Isreal vowing to not let history repeat as in 1938. Either scenario carries far reaching implications to security issues in the M.E. - Netking
------------------------------------------------------------
In 1938, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain waved a piece of paper bearing the signature of Adolf Hitler promising peace in exchange for Allied capitulation in Czechoslovakia. Of course, all that did was encourage Hitler, who invaded Poland on September 1, 1939. Two days later, Britain was at war with Germany anyway.

Doesn't anyone in Washington have a history book?" Last night, Ariel Sharon gave an angry speech in which he accused the United States of trying to appease the Arabs at Israel's expense. He used almost those exact words, warning the West that Israel would not be sacrificed on the altar of appeasement.

He told a press conference in Tel Aviv, "We are currently in the midst of a complex and difficult political campaign. I call on the Western democracies and primarily on the leader of the free world, the United States: Do not repeat the dreadful mistake of 1938, when enlightened European democracies decided to sacrifice Czechoslovakia for a convenient temporary solution. Do not try to appease the Arabs at our expense. This is unacceptable to us. Israel will not be Czechoslovakia. Israel will fight terrorism."
CoBra(too)
(10/05/2001; 03:53:54 MDT - Msg ID: 62968)
OPEC - Calls emergency Meeting in Vienna over the Weekend.
http://www.altavista.com/r?ck_sm=c1cbe4d9&ci=4742&ref=10000020080&r=http://www.nytimes.com/2001/10/04/business/worldbusiness/04OIL.html?ex=1002772800&en=cb13068d87dcd922&ei=5006∂ner=ALTAVISTAThis was not as yet confirmed by the OPEC Secretariat in Vienna last night, though it was reported originally by an Algerian news agency.
Only last week OPEC Ministers have formally agreed to leave production unchanged at 23.5mbbld.
In view of above article, one cannot help to be conf-(am)-used. Or who'se more nervous?

BB - thanks for your reply re-mining the tar sands.
cb2
Netking
(10/05/2001; 04:32:27 MDT - Msg ID: 62969)
TWA 800-II (or Terror Psyops) - The intelligence wars continue
http://www.newsmax.com/showinside.shtml?a=2001/10/4/235226Within hours of the crash of a Siberia Airlines Tupolev 154 into the Black Sea on Thursday, U.S. officials were confidently asserting that an errant Ukrainian missile accidentally brought the jet down, killing all 76 aboard.

U.S. intelligence sources maintained throughout the day that "A missile launched during Ukrainian military exercises likely brought the Tupelov down. . ."

However Ukraine quickly dismissed American suggestions that the plane might have been hit by an accidental missile strike from Ukraine and President Vladimir Putin said it might be a "terrorist act . . . "

But a U.S. official in Washington said: "We want to get away from this notion . . . that this was a terrorism act. It could well have been a training accident, it could have been the Ukrainian military conducting a live-fire test . . .

But then Russian security sources, quoted by Interfax news agency, said the Ukrainian exercises had been taking place more than 200 miles from where the plane came down. "They (Ukrainian forces) were using missiles which do not have the required range,'' a source told Interfax. . .

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20011004/ts/russia_crash_dc_8.html

Run the tape back if you would to 1996 & contrast that with what U.S. probers said about TWA Flight 800 . . . .
Nearly 300 eyewitnesses say they saw a missile-like object slam into the tragic Flight 800 in the crystal clear evening dusk of July 17, 1996. Still, despite hundreds of staggeringly similar eyewitness accounts, some of which included details of the missile's launch -- the FBI and NTSB never really took seriously the possibility that TWA 800 was brought down by a missile.

In fact, before long investigators were insisting there was absolutely "no evidence" that Flight 800's demise was anything more than a tragic accident . . . .

Intelligence wars 2001, the truth is as they say, out there.
- Netking
Canuck
(10/05/2001; 04:35:21 MDT - Msg ID: 62970)
Armchair Generals,armchair liberals
If I was running this show I would have sent up a trial ballon long ago. It is long overdue, we approach a month and not a shot has been fired. It's time for a light show, blast the daylights out of the desert and obilerate a couple of mountains. No bin Ladin but no civilians on the other hand. The bombing and blasting may serve 3 purposes, appease the impatient 'armchair generals', buy time for the snuffing out of foxholes(IMHO the real war) and send a feeler for reaction to a major light show. It may also relieve some internal pressure within the allied troops, let off some steam, so to speak.

What say you to some ground leveling, the markets would jump I am sure and gold would be inclined to nudge forward.

No nukes, patience is mandatory.

Canuck.
Canuck
(10/05/2001; 04:47:48 MDT - Msg ID: 62971)
@ sector
From yours:

"I'm not interested in WORKING OUT DIFFERENCES. This is more dangerous than most gummint officials are admitting to (for obvious reasons). Russian countries, after the breakup, sold 140 suitcases to the highest bidder. 80 are accounted for, 60 are not. From what they say they are 1/5 the power of the Hiroshima bomb.

Still concerned about fairplay? How about survival?"

I am concerned about the last minute reversal of Britain and the US to invade. Do you think that there is a chance that the allies were told of the grim 'suitcase' news or of something similiar? The sudden 'pussyfooting', especially of Britain does not seem right?

Thoughts?
Canuck
(10/05/2001; 04:49:18 MDT - Msg ID: 62972)
ERROR
Sorry, last post to uponroof.
Netking
(10/05/2001; 05:00:53 MDT - Msg ID: 62973)
"Metal proves its worth in times of turmoil, strategist says" - World gold council message
http://finance.canada.com/bin/story?StoryId=Co70Wqd8bnZiXmdC0&Topic=Financial_Post&Type=home&Heading=News%20from%20Financial%20Post&BC=Financial%20PostGold has been getting some great press, this from the WGC - Netking:

"Though long out of favour with portfolio managers, gold makes just as much sense as a hedge against risk as it ever did, which has been made clear in the wake of the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11. That was the message Richard Scott-Ram, chief portfolio strategist of the World Gold Council, delivered at a speech in Vancouver yesterday.

Since the early 1980s, gold has been consistently falling in value as central banks dumped their bullion and investors went hunting for higher returns. "Much of the U.S. stock market has weakened and the inflation rate has stopped declining," Mr. Scott-Ram said. "Meanwhile, the gold price has begun turning up from a very low level. Accordingly, portfolio managers are increasingly recognizing the need to diversify their portfolios into alternative assets, including gold."

Based in London, the World Gold Council is a non-profit organization, funded by some of the world's leading gold producers. In 1982, gold was trading as high as US$629. In 1999, at the height of the technology bubble, it fell as low as US$255.

Since then, it has risen somewhat but the most dramatic advance was in the days after the attacks, when it jumped nearly 7% to US$293."[Gold] is an internationally recognized asset that is not dependent upon any government's promise to pay," Mr. Scott-Ram told his audience of mainly money managers and brokerage executives.

"This is an important feature when comparing gold to conventional diversifiers like T-bills or bonds. "Historically, gold has been a hugely popular asset for investors in search of capital growth as well as safety. More recently, however, it has lost some of its luster, first to the U.S. greenback and later to stocks and their promise of fat capital gains.

And among money managers, bullion lost favour as more sophisticated financial instruments became available. Indeed, it has been described as "a barbarous relic." But in times of global turmoil, Mr. Scott-Ram said, gold consistently proves its value, reducing the likelihood of "unpleasant surprises for the investor."

But today, in the wake of the terrorist attacks and the U.S. dollar's decline, this is especially apparent. He said analysts believe that North American and world equity markets are headed for continued uncertainty and volatility.

"Gold bullion is available through brokerage firms and banks," he advised. For investors who do not want to buy physical gold, there are a number of alternatives.

"The gold-linked instrument combines most of the attributes of an investment in gold with all the advantages of a bond," he said. "An important benefit of the gold-linked instrument is that it enables the investor to buy gold with an income."
Canuck
(10/05/2001; 05:21:40 MDT - Msg ID: 62974)
@ Allan C.
"So the way I figure it, one American life is worth at least 10 Afgani lives"

Allan,

Is this a quote from uponroof or a thought of yours?

Thanks.
Black Blade
(10/05/2001; 06:51:40 MDT - Msg ID: 62975)
Fried Nest Eggs
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/oct2001/nf2001105_5476.htm
Snippit:

The market slide has slammed retirement savings across-the-board. And it puts older Americans in a particularly tough spot. Brace yourself: Your 401(k) statement for the third quarter will be arriving in the mail soon, and it's not going to be pretty. The S&P 500 slid 15% for the three months ended in September. That's enough to send the results of most retirement accounts heavily weighted in stocks into negative territory -- even for people making ongoing contributions.

Black Blade: Very "Interesting" article! And it is going to get much worse from here.

BTW, non-farm payrolls declined by -199,000! This is the "official" data. It is actually much worse than that as many don't qualify for benefits. George Dubya is now suggesting that unemployment benefits be extended by another 13 weeks. This is similar to the Recession in the 1980's when benefits were extended under Ron Reagan. This Recession will be more severe by comparison.
Black Blade
(10/05/2001; 07:03:18 MDT - Msg ID: 62976)
Job Picture Grim Before Sept. 11 Attacks
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/011005/business_economy_jobs_dc_2.html
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy shed nearly 200,000 jobs in September, the government said on Friday in a report that showed a sharp erosion in the job market even before the full impact of the Sept. 11 attacks was felt.

Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" grows higher and higher as more nonessential "Bags O' Bones" are cast aside like used prostitutes. It is an ugly affair as many are ill-prepared for an extended period of unemployment. Now you know why I have been advocating preparation just the same as if you would for a severe natural disaster with a supply of cash, PMs, food, water, basic necessities, get out of debt, etc. At the very least you will sleep better at night. Hang on for the ride! We live in "Interesting Times"
uponroof
(10/05/2001; 07:03:38 MDT - Msg ID: 62977)
Canuck
Flyers 5 -2 over Florida....Roenick great in debutHi Canuck,

Your 'Great White North' may become a safe haven for us under attack 'southernahs'. Especially if worst case scenario nuclear terrorism occurrs. You don't mind a few million extra mouths to feed do you? Can't miss us, we'll be the ones with the glowing 'see in the dark' bodies. (half kidding)
**************


Your question: "I am concerned about the last minute reversal of Britain and the US to invade. Do you think that there is a chance that the allies were told of the grim 'suitcase' news or of something similiar? The sudden 'pussyfooting', especially of Britain does not seem right?"

I am glad you pointed that out. When the apparent 'change' came it was hard to tell if it was a policy reversal or never really fully intended. This led to the debate regarding the importance of coalitions, diplomacy, etc.

With so many possible scenarios it is difficult to be certain what actually happened but one must believe that time is of the essense, especially when in persuit or tracking individuals down.

The 'delay' is IMHO an indication of some form of blackmail, which could be nothing more than a bluff, but who wants to risk that it isn't? Minesweeping the yard and exausting all possible precautions is going to take time, without guarantees of success. Why not divert attention from this by making a fuss over State Dept endeavors etc?

Meanwhile the guilty get farther away.....or closer to another attack.

No cookbook answers from this armchair general. If we're lucky we'll find out years from now what really happened.

gotta run, have a great day!
****************************

Hats off to Mr Leonard Kaplan! I have picked on him pretty good lately (almost as much as the WGC) and am very happy to see his stance on jewellery.
Black Blade
(10/05/2001; 07:07:02 MDT - Msg ID: 62978)
Gold firmer on position taking ahead of weekend
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/011005/l05273382_1.html
Snippit:

LONDON, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Spot gold edged higher in nervous trade on Friday with market participants preferring to hold long positions ahead of the weekend and any military response by the United States, dealers said.

Black Blade: And apparently some are "preparing" for the worst with PM purchases.
G$
(10/05/2001; 07:37:59 MDT - Msg ID: 62979)
The coming boom....litigation
I was helping a friend with some light construction at a commercial job site of his. One of the tenants moving in was a small mutual fund / financial planning company. Playing like I knew very little about the markets, I asked one of the guys what he thought about the markets after recent events. Without hesitation, he said �now is the time to buy!..don't you know buy low sell high.� I retorted, �what if this isn't the bottom and they have a lot further to fall?� He assured me that if we weren't at the ultimate bottom, it wouldn't be far off, and that I should be thinking about the long term. He also told me that he did not have one sell order from one of his clients. Obviously I can not be sure what his clients hold, but by the sounds of it he had no fear of heavy equities exposure.

Having observed human psychology through similar circumstances (ie: losing money on investments), I believe that we are still in the quiet period between when the first dramatic cracks appear and when people start to realize that their money is never coming back. Right now there is still hope and a belief that all will somehow work out okay. I believe that just the opposite will happen and that the next down leg in the markets will start to crystallize the realization that something is terribly wrong, and the cries will start to go up about how could the government let this happen? Who was in charge? Why were 95% of analysts completely wrong about the stock market?

Lawyers should be licking their chops. The next boom we will experience will be in litigation against banks, brokers, financial guru's et all.

G$
Henri
(10/05/2001; 07:46:24 MDT - Msg ID: 62980)
CoBra2 More on ATS
http://www.canadianoilsandstrust.com/In addition to SU, other players are IMO parent of Exxon, COSWF see link above and of course one needs a pipeline to get all that oil to where its needed Enbridge (ENBR) Syncrude is a Joint venture composed of some of the above, and a longshot new player...Energea out of Denver who is rumored to have technology for efficient in ground removal of oil without mining.
USAGOLD
(10/05/2001; 07:57:26 MDT - Msg ID: 62981)
Today's Commentary. . . .
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html10/5/01

In Brief: Gold remains firm in the $290 range with indications that it wants to move higher. At the moment, gold is $1.10 over yesterday's price with London players explaining that no one wants to go home for the weekend short the market. We'll see what happens as the day progresses on this side of the Atlantic. Reuters reports gold moving higher in Asia on "nervous buying" linked to concerns that the US will strike Afghanistan over the weekend.

For Investors the Real Rate of Return Becomes a Key Issue

In addition to the more immediate concerns centering around Afghanistan, the gold market is also reacting to the more fundamental reality of the shrinking real rate of return on dollar-based investments including stocks, bonds and bank deposits -- a little talked about consequence of the recent .5% rate cut. You can be sure, however, that the real rate of return is of fundamental concern to the world's money managers and individual investors. . . . ..MORE. . . .

To read the rest of today's report, we inite you to join us at our private access COMMENTARY & REVIEW page. (A simple, one-time registration is required.)

I would like to invite anyone who has an interest in gold to go to the link provided to request an information packet. That way you will be sure to receive our first News & Views: A Quarterly Review of Forcasts, Commentary and Analsysis on the Economy and Precious Metals along with access to our client only Commentary & Review page.

Note: The latest News & Views -- the first edition of our new 32-page quarterly -- is now hitting mail boxes in the United States and also available to our international clientele by pdf-download. It features a discussion on systemic risk titled "Why Gold, Why Now." Some of you are familiar with this article (for which we have had a large of number of reprint requests), but if you aren't, I think you will agree that it addresses current client concerns in very direct and timely manner. American prospective clients can receive a hard-copy by going to the following link:

(Request Info)

Find out the who, what, when , where, why and how of gold ownership!

------------------------------------------------------------------------
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US 800-869-5115

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CoBra(too)
(10/05/2001; 08:15:49 MDT - Msg ID: 62983)
Bill Bonner on the old InDe-Flation InDe-Cision!
INFLATION OR DEFLATION?
by Bill Bonner

Japan has seen it all. Stocks crashing for a decade. Unemployment rising. Billions in stimulus with no effect. Rates cut to zero.

What the Japanese have not seen is the very thing you might expect when you give away money: inflation.

Instead, prices have fallen. Consumer prices have been falling at annual rate of 2%, and asset prices - both real estate and stocks - have collapsed to a third to a fifth of their previous levels.

Here again, without hardly trying, the Japanese may have become trendsetters.

American investors, yesterday, looked as far into the future as they could. What they could see, we don't know. But we know what they didn't see: inflation.

Bonds hate inflation. At the sight of inflation on the far horizon, bonds fall in price...and yields (the return per unit of capital invested)...jump. Yesterday, the yield on a 10-year T-note didn't jump. It sank...to 4.46%. Meanwhile TIPS, bonds with inflation protection built in, were paying 3.08%...a mere 0.37 % above the current inflation rate...and only 1.38% less than you can get from the non-protected note. This differential is a rough measure of what investors expect from inflation. It has reached a new, very curious low level.

It is new because never before have investors estimated the rate of inflation over the next ten years at such a low level - 1.38%. It is curious because never at any time in the last 3 decades has the inflation rate been anywhere near that low. Instead, it has averaged 1.9% for the last 30 years and now stands at 2.7%.

Investors are betting that inflation will decline to half the current rate...and stay at a level it hasn't seen since the Nixon administration.

Investors - perhaps the same investors who saw no risk of a bear market - now see no risk of inflation. Indeed, inflation seems as remote a risk today as an attack on the WTC was in August, a risk - at the time - so slight that owners thought it unnecessary to fully insure themselves.

This is doubly curious, because never - since perhaps the Vietnam War - have governments shown themselves so eager to do what they do best...destroy their own currencies. And never, ever...as far as we know...has a war failed to produce a substantial increase in domestic prices.

"War is Keynesian," writes Gary North. It is always financed by deficit spending and monetary inflation. Conservatives yell and scream that they want more freedom, but when war clouds or recession clouds roll in, conservatives join the Establishment's Amen chorus for more government, more restrictions on liberty, and more inflation."

The same people who once believed a peace dividend was good for the economy now believe a war will be even better. Those who urged Japan to build bridges to stimulate its economy seem to believe that destroying bridges will be just as good.

And where once they looked with pride on a budget surplus and a social security lock-box, they now cast their eyes appreciatively upon deficits and an open Congressional checkbook. If the taxpayers won't spend their own money, they reason, government will spend it for them...

And those who never saw an economic downturn or bear market approaching...now see them going away, thanks to all this stimulus provided by the Fed and Congress.

Even in this post-irony age, we feel a great paradox coming on. Like the onset of the flu...it is but a chill...a mere, expectant frisson now. But soon, it may have us shaking feverishly and begging for relief.

Wars may be lost or may be won...either way, if enough stimulating firepower is used, a nation's currency always seems to be among the casualties.

Here at the Daily Reckoning we are agnostic on inflation. We have little doubt that eventually the dollar will go the way of the austral, the confederate dollar, the sou, the livre, the reichsmark, the wara, stamp scrip, the Old Franc, the continental, the ostmark and every other paper currency ever created.

All things, paper currencies included, eventually regress to their intrinsic value. The dollar will be no exception. It has lost 95% of its value since the Federal Reserve was set up to protect it. Sooner or later, the Fed will succeed in eliminating the last 5%...

But, we also note that Japan has been unable to kindle inflation - despite all its efforts. And we suspect that Mr. Market will have some surprises for us first.

In America, people are on the hook for more debt than at any time in history. We suspect they will twist and turn a little...like the Japanese...before they are let off by inflation.

Bill Bonner

P.S. But I promised that today's letter would be about gold. And so it is.

"Gold thrives on uncertainty," observes an article from the BBC. "And the world has shifted into a new climate of insecurity. Risks have increased markedly. The attacks on the United States were the start of the drama, not the climax."

Andy Smith, precious metals analyst at Mitsui Securities in London, and no gold bug, believes the yellow metal "could go to $340 an ounce within the next three months...and continue to soar after that."

Maybe. Maybe not.

But in a world of full of risk, a little bit of insurance seems a healthy precaution. Gold, at $289, seems cheap protection.

cb2 - YGLOB (you got'ta luv ole B)
goldfool
(10/05/2001; 08:46:34 MDT - Msg ID: 62984)
Primary reason why Bush is cautious in retaliation against Taliban is FINANCIAL.
Military action (War) causes volitility in the financial markets which could set off a string of bank failures due to highly leveraged derivative positions. The Fed is working overtime to keep the markets stabilized by indirectly injecting liquidity into the stock market, supporting the dollar, and selling gold and crude oil when necessary. The key market that could initiate this collapse is of course the gold market which was "allowed" to spike up to around $292/oz probably just to disprove theories of manipulation however the daily chart proves just the opposite as gold has "flat-topped" out at a narrow trading range between $288-292/oz despite a large amount of physical demand and other bullish fundamentals. If anybody is still unsure about GATA's claim of manipulation just check out the hourly chart just before last Tuesday's rate cut announcement at 14:15pm. From about 09:15am when the NY market opened gold was sold down from around $291.30 to $288.40 at 12:45pm when trading was suddenly stopped (at least on my Kitco chart) just after hitting it's lows. If you go back in time to other rate cut announcements you can frequently see a similar pattern if not on the NY exchange certainly on the others. Interest rate cuts are usually seen by most economists as bullish for the gold market because it theoretically contributes to inflation. It is this blatant manipulation of the gold market that shows just how despirate the Fed is in trying to save the world's banking system (not to mention his efforts to get this Swiss to sell more of their reserves). The best analogy I could come up with comes from the movie "The Wizard of Oz" where Dorothy, the Tinman, the Cowardly Lion, and the Scarecrow (collectively the American Public) are skipping naively up to the Emerald City (Financial Markets) to see the Wizard (Alan Greenspan) to have him provide their needs but found out the Wizard was a desperate, insecure little old man pulling levers (manipulating) to make the whole facade of Emerald City work. If only Dorothy et al had following their first inclination and followed the yellow brick road (bullion)!
Gandalf the White
(10/05/2001; 09:07:29 MDT - Msg ID: 62985)
PPT is ALIVE and well !
PPT arrived at 11:01 NY time to test out the CONTROL method today ! Do not worry, Sheeples, the PPT is totally in CONTROL !!
<;-(
R Powell
(10/05/2001; 09:24:53 MDT - Msg ID: 62986)
Got one!!
Most people know enough not to ask me about my investment ideas- they're not interested enough to discuss anything that requires thought/effort. But, one friend called me about buying stock since the prices are low and he thought, near the bottom. After issuing the usual disclaimers, I questioned the potential for much more downside in share prices and I suggested silver eagles. Like myself, he is a working stiff and does not have much for investment in gold but can afford silver.
Guess what? He ordered the coins and "News and Views" that day.
I got one!!
Rich
goldfool
(10/05/2001; 09:28:26 MDT - Msg ID: 62987)
Gandalf the White
Which large cap member of the Dow 30 are they buying today?
Old Yeller
(10/05/2001; 09:35:18 MDT - Msg ID: 62988)
Goldfool

Good post.Poor GWB is scratching at the sheer walls created by Clinton,Rubin and Greenie.Someone else is calling the shots now.

The golden rule lives on.
Brett Woods
(10/05/2001; 09:52:04 MDT - Msg ID: 62989)
..continued buying in Asia
Friday, October 5 2001
Big jump seen in physical gold offtake, largely going to Middle East and Asia making contingency plans on possibility of war. Says trader, "It has become the preferred form of payment in these countries. They're not going to want to own the dollar or euro..."

http://www.futuresource.com/news/news.asp?story=i4190705438172053505
annie
(10/05/2001; 10:11:01 MDT - Msg ID: 62990)
New case of Anthrax
Does anyone have any info on the rumored 2nd case of anthrax?

TIA, annie
uponroof
(10/05/2001; 10:14:49 MDT - Msg ID: 62991)
goldfool
Thanks for your thoughts. Good insights on the POG. I also believe 'FINANCIAL' to be a major factor, perhaps not primary, but certainly major. (10/1/01; 15:57:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 62771).

"...American retaliation is being measured in many ways, for many reasons. Not least of which is economic fallout, which IMHO includes POG. How long will the American people endure the quiet of their guns before they consider that the vengence for their dead is being weighed against protection of fat and irresponsible bankers?..."

'How long' is rhetorical. This is the stuff that will never be told or 'considered'. The media and public are not looking for ways to cheapen the ultimate sacrifice, or question the measure of vengence owed, to the innocent 5000.

When one equates monetary value to the cost of death they will always come up short. UNLESS OF COURSE THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT OUR PRIMARY BANKERS INTERESTS.
Old Yeller
(10/05/2001; 10:24:46 MDT - Msg ID: 62992)
Foreign currency thoughts
http://www.prudentbear.com/boards/user/non-frames/message.asp?forumid=4&messageid=76715&threadid=76707
Check out the comment on the SF.Starting to notice this angle a little more,wonder if there's something to it?

I like that rumor a lot more than the Robert Rubin replacing AG rumor.No telling where that would lead.
Gold Trail Update
(10/05/2001; 10:55:20 MDT - Msg ID: 62993)
The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated
The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.
CoBra(too)
(10/05/2001; 11:08:32 MDT - Msg ID: 62994)
Gold Fields CEO - Chris Thompson - Outspoken!
http://www.mips1.net/mgdg1.nsf/Current/85256AD3005A225285256ADC00542031?OpenDocument&ByLine=Tim+WoodEven Tim Woods couldn't really debate the underlying truth
and, maybe, accusations in the direction of the deserved blame ...
To the golden Hall of Fame for Chris T's open words and do I detect some fear of a potential hostile takeover, which may be near?
Hope not - one of my last major gold mine holdings, after so many of the encumbered have been taken out.
cb2
sector
(10/05/2001; 11:09:26 MDT - Msg ID: 62995)
@ Canuck About the 11th Hour Attack Delay and Our Home Vulnerability
I don't think its the Russian nuclear suitcase already in the US thing. This is partly due to the Iraqis continued search for nuclear WMD...they wouldn't be expending so much development energy if they already had nuclear suitcases. Nor do I think the terrorists have a viable biological threat since that requires a fixed fermentation laboratory with elaborate glove box protective shielding and highly trained biologists...not compatible with the "City Planner" educational background of the terrorist leader, Mohammed Atta.

I could be very well be wrong about th above, but I think the next big terrorist attack will be aimed at Central Command at McDill AFB (more below).

The delay most likely was due to a paucity of military assets in place as well as last minute demands for more money from our "allies". These "allies" will desert us in a variety of subtle ways if the ferocity of our response is high. Meanwhile, the delay is positive insofar as it affords that much more time to track the Taliban hideout locations.

McDill -- Central Command

The involvement of crop duster [Cessna Agwagon] vehicles added a new dimension to internal threats but not, in my view, what most observers think. The 500 gallon AgWagon tank seems ideal for carriage not of chemical or biological agents but of conventional or exotic [SEMTEX class] explosives. Moreover, the only target of escalated value in Florida is Central Command.

The determined terrorist cell would need to have a secure remote location to collect ingredients, mix the explosive, transport it to the selected airfield in a large tank, kill the pilot and all witnesses present, transfer the explosive into the crop duster's hopper, carefully insert several synchronized detonators, affix the actuator switch in the cockpit, fill the aircraft fuel tank and take off toward their target not more than 100 miles distant due to the necessarily limited aircraft range.

Such a large amount of exotic explosive would at the least destroy the Command Center. If it could be somehow be delivered.

According to the Miami Sectional Chart, Peter O. Knight airfield is 10 miles from the control tower at McDill which I assume to be the Command Center for this exercise. Choosing a weather day with North east winds (post cold from in Fall or Winter) and having called in as a non-crop duster type aircraft, the terrorist pilot would be less than seven miles from the Center when on his base leg for his approach to Knight Field. Breaking off his landing attempt at Knight he would then have only 3.5 minutes [assuming a 120 mph, full throttle run] between his flying bomb and the Command Center. This time is too short to recognize the anomaly, scramble an interceptor, gain position and make the decision to kill the pilot.

The history of attacks from Bin Laden include Saudi Arabian military barracks and the USS Cole. These targets were lightly guarded against a surface attack just as Central Command is lightly guarded today against an air attack. The Commanders appear not to appreciate the determined nature of the internal US threat. Simply grounding crop dusters is not enough. They must be guarded 24/7. Indeed there ought to be live fire tested AAA batteries positioned around McDill.

The authorities have important clues with the terrorist interest in crop dusters (1) The intended target can't be much more than 100 miles from the crop duster operating field and (2) There will be an alternative target of value near the primary target...say...Raymond James Stadium on a Sunday Afternoon.

Sadly it may require another successful attack to fully awaken America to the new truth...that we are in a real war.

The CoinGuy
(10/05/2001; 11:14:46 MDT - Msg ID: 62996)
Old Yeller..ALL
http:www.larouchepub.com/other/2001/2834chervonetz.htmlI thought it interesting Rubin was invited to the congressional closed door meetings in Washington a couple of weeks ago. This is probably where the rumour got started.

On another note, I read with interest this article in the "Executive Intelligence Review", I'm not very Familiar with LaRouche's political affiliation, but the article was interesting. I forget who actually posted it originally, but want to thank the person, you know who you are.

I can't believe that only Russia is heading in this direction...

I found a few comments worthy of discussion in the article.

snippit:

"Sberbank, meanwhile, is allowing customers to open euro accounts in the European "single currency" the euro, and to convert their dollar account to euro accounts in a matter of two minutes."

Only if they made this as easy for the Americans, I had to search long and hard for a euro account. I spoke with presidents of banks, major brokerage firms, etc. Didn't seem to get anyone knowledgable on the subject. After the third call, I felt as though I was speaking a foreign language... Most didn't seem to understand why I was interested in converting dollar assets to euros.


snippit:

Interviewed by Nezavisimaya abouth the Bank of Russia move, senior liberal regormer Yevgeni Yasin said that he thought that "the gold chervonetsy will not be used as a medium of echange but will be a means for savings and accumulation".

That sure sounds like what our Trail Guide has been stating(for some time now).


Anne: I read the second Anthrax case was another rumour, and wasn't confirmed by the CDC.

FWIW,

The CoinGuy

BR549
(10/05/2001; 11:23:18 MDT - Msg ID: 62997)
Up, Up, and Awaaaaaay!
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/H6/current/h6.pdfThe latest stats from the Fed show increases in every category except seasonally adjusted M3. The latest report is dated as of yesterday but reflects FED accumulations only through August. With all of the billions being force FED into the economy, I can't wait to see what happens to these numbers for this report in December.

They need to add another column titled "non-seasonally adjusted hyper-inflation" using 911 as a base date.

@cb2--IDLOB (I do luv's ole B) and if we would, we can learn a lot from Japan's history.

Warmest Regards,

BR549
BR549
(10/05/2001; 12:05:04 MDT - Msg ID: 62998)
The five greatest threats to the free world
1. Terrorism
2. Suitcase nukes
3. Biological warfare
4. Crop dusters
5. Robert Rubin as Fed Chairman

Not necessarily in that order.

BR549
lamprey_65
(10/05/2001; 13:00:38 MDT - Msg ID: 62999)
Signs of the Season
A few weeks ago, while spending a beautiful afternoon on one of our pristine New England rivers, a strange feeling came over me -- I had just realized how the sun was not nearly as bright as it had been at the same time of day just a month before. The sun's angle had changed enough for me to notice...it wasn't long after this realization that I noticed the leaves changing color - the beginning of Fall.

The signs of seasons changing can be subtle at first and only recognized by the astute observer.

So, what are the signs in our gold market?

Let's list a few I've observed over the past few months:

1. Two of the the major hedging mines, Barrick Gold and Anglogold, make bids for major producers (Homestake and Normandy). I guess they figured out that the share prices of these two companies were not going to get cheaper, but rather more expensive.

2. Andy Smith turns gold bull. You know Andy - the unrepentent gold bear for the past 5+ years who likes to tell everyone how gold has become just another commodity. Seems like he's done a rather LARGE flip flop. I'd like to know the reason why (and don't feed me back his mumbo-jumbo about the terrorist attack on September 11th changing everything).

3. The keepers of the XAU decide to kick out Phelps Dodge in favor of Harmony and eventually replace Homestake with Goldcorp. (--I believe I have my facts straight on this...someone please correct me if I'm wrong--).
Hmmm, so let's kick out a copper producer if favor of a REAL gold company. What took them so long?

My take on these signs in the gold market...

The "professionals" are about done accumulating...this is why we've seen a slow, steady rise since November, 2000 -- they were building positions. (See Fidelity's holdings of AEM, GG, etc.) I agree with Beowulf's observation that this is the first phase of a bull market. IMO, Phase II begins once $300 is taken out. I don't think we'll have to wait too long.

BTW...

JP Morgan continues to be sold aggressively....I wonder why ;-)

L.

Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD
(10/05/2001; 13:16:12 MDT - Msg ID: 63000)
Hard assets... Easy access!
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

sovereigns
Why should YOU buy gold from Centennial?

Because no one else will do it for you.

Centennenial is here to help.
1-800-869-5115

BR549
(10/05/2001; 13:47:44 MDT - Msg ID: 63001)
Gold futures prices rose Friday to trade well above $290 an ounce, lifting shares of major metals companies higher on concern that possible military action overseas could affect the flow of gold supplies.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B36F8E044%2D10B9%2D44E7%2DA8BB%2D654A057BD6CA%7D"Additionally, "tighter supply seems assured by limited exploration, new mine development and now falling reserves," J.P. Morgan analyst John Bridges write in a research note.

The "new world" following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the East Coast "will have a bigger role for gold,"

Less Gold Supply + Higher demand - Less mining + economic war + threat of shooting war = Higher GOLD prices.

John Hathaway coming to CNBC to talk Gold now. Moderator has promised to ask him about if Gold is being manipulated.

BR549
site steward
(10/05/2001; 14:09:45 MDT - Msg ID: 63002)
Staving off "cascading failures"; for Spartacus (10/5/01; #62966) Re: your question...
Essentially, YES.

But it might be more properly said that the government is providing (manufacturing) not "collateral" in the proper sense but rather the very items necessary (in this case, Treasury bonds) to boost liquidity in the market among lenders and borrowers of these items (i.e., U.S. Govt debt securities).

It's really not much different than what the Fed is currently attempting to do with respect to dollars, and always will in the future whenever contractionary conditions threaten. Due to such inevitable interventions, cash savers never really get their due -- always seeing their paper savings eroded (against real wealth) from monetary inflation through thick and thin.

This has been done in the commercial gold lending market too, however, the liquidity has been largely provided by the manufacture of paper gold. Can you see how the function of confidence in the value of paper in this latter market, gold, is on thin ice compared to the other two markets mentioned -- bonds and dollars?

That is to say, while newly manufactured bonds and dollars are equivalent to the underlying bonds and dollars in the markets they are intended to "liquify", newly manufactured paper gold falls very short as equivalents for the underlying solid gold metal in the market it is intended to provide liquidity.

This helps?

Randy

PS. Anyone wanting to follow along and read about the current climate of "cascading fails" is encouraged to see my initial post yeserday with an attached article:
site steward (10/4/01; 11:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 62920)
AllanC
(10/05/2001; 14:13:09 MDT - Msg ID: 63003)
Canuck
Actually I was being a little heavy on the sarcasm there, no uponroof did not exactly say that.

Later I will post my response to BR549 and uponroof.
BR549
(10/05/2001; 14:28:09 MDT - Msg ID: 63004)
Sorry, next register please. The Federal Corporate welfare line is now closed
http://foxnews.com/story/0,2933,35871,00.html"WASHINGTON � President Bush, seeking to spur the American economy in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks, called on Congress Friday to pass a $60 billion tax relief package.


"In order to stimulate the economy, Congress doesn't need to spend any more money," Bush said. "What they need to do is cut taxes."

The president appealed for the tax cut in a hastily arranged press conference in the White House Rose Garden."


For all industries lined up for handouts behind the airline and travel industries, please take your hat out of your hands, put it back on your heads, and go earn your way out. A tax cut is the incentive for capitalism, not "high classed welfare".

Let's cram Pandora back into her box before it is too late.

BR549
Netking
(10/05/2001; 14:36:51 MDT - Msg ID: 63005)
World Gold Council's $200 Million spend - Have they got it wrong?
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kaplan/kaplan10_05_01.htmlLeonard Kaplan of Prospector Asset Management makes comment on the worth of this latest WGC plan:

I have never seen a more idiotic idea than the plan by the World Gold Council to spend $200 Million Dollars to promote gold by solely and strictly pushing gold jewelry. Listen, it has been proven, beyond all debate, that the market for jewelry is elastic. As prices rise, consumption drops quickly. And, in a global economic environment of recession, and possibly depression in some nations, to be promoting jewelry is simply insane, as sales will mostly drop as economies worsen and prices rise. Why can't they just spend some, if not all, of the money promoting gold as an investment especially due to its performance the last few weeks and the uncertainty of other investment arenas. The World Gold Council puts out these wonderful academic analyses of how gold can be a diversifier in investment portfolios, it puts out wonderfully detailed arguments of why gold should be acquired as an investment, and yet... now it wants to spend $200 million promoting jewelry at the exact wrong time. They have the opportunity to really make a difference and they are throwing it away. At the most opportune chance that they have had in a decade. It is truly sad.

No, make that tragic. No, make that stupid and tragic. It can also be reflection on those that fund the World Gold Council that they could allow such activities. Instead of hiring some fancy advertising agency, it might behoove them to solicit the advice of seasoned professionals who have some understanding of the markets. OK. I have already ruined my dinner. Enough said . . . "
barnacle bill
(10/05/2001; 14:46:09 MDT - Msg ID: 63006)
CNBC interviews John Hathaway
I just caught a part of the interview - Ted David asks Mr Hathaway about the gold price manipulation. Hathaway says he wouldn't be surprized, since we see the govt intervening in other markets all the time. He went on to say that there is no proof, but that there is "a fair ammount of smoke."
Mr Hathaway's top three gold stocks are:

Goldfields - "best leveraged"
Harmony - "very cheap"
Newmont - "quality assets"

After the interview, the camera went to Ron Insana, who quoted Ed Hart (R.I.P.) 'the next time you really need gold, it will be illegal to own it', or words to that effect. These guys simply refuse to say 'uncle'.
Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD
(10/05/2001; 14:46:28 MDT - Msg ID: 63007)
For the Perfect Gift...
http://www.usagold.com/jewelry/gold/buy_18k_index.html

We would like to direct your attention to our new offer of 18-karat designer gold jewelry. We think you'll find The Classic Collection from noted gold jewelry designers, Termine and Winer, something special. There's nothing like jewelry custom-crafted from 18-karat gold, and once you see it next to the more commercial 14-karat variety, there's no going back. If you want to surprise a loved one with something different, this will do the trick. Select from bracelets, earrings, necklaces and pins -- all priced without jewelry store mark-ups (and no sales tax). We went to great lengths to secure this special offer for Christmas this year, but decided to launch early in case some of you had special needs for anniversaries or birthdays. Browse our catalogue and complete your gift-shopping -- from the comfort of your current chair.

slingshot
(10/05/2001; 14:47:48 MDT - Msg ID: 63008)
Armchair General
You have to ask yourselves some real hard questions.

Is there going to be a shooting war?
Do the TERRORIST have weapons of MASS DESTRUCTION already in the country?
Will they use them if given the opportunity?
Will we use them in retaliation?

You can close both eyes,open one or see it plainly with both eyes open.
Slingshot
Solomon Weaver
(10/05/2001; 15:17:03 MDT - Msg ID: 63009)
(No Subject)
At last, Gold Stocks trade anti to mainstream stock market...and not to gold price.Gold funds take a rest, fans see more gains
October 05, 2001 2:42:00 PM ET


By Cal Mankowski

NEW YORK, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Fans of gold stocks and gold-oriented mutual funds, clearly a winning bet for investors in 2001, say prospects remain bullish despite a brief pause in the group's upward trajectory.

Fund tracker Lipper Inc. had gold mutual funds, on average, declining 0.36 percent in the week ended Oct. 4, the only stock fund category with a negative return.

But year to date, of all the stock fund groups tracked by Lipper, only gold, small capitalization value funds and real estate funds are up.

Gold funds, with a 15.24 percent return year to date through Oct. 4, easily outshined REIT funds, up 2.95 percent, and small-company value funds, up 1.37 percent.

The average U.S. diversified stock fund showed a year-to-date loss of 19.71 percent, but in the latest week gained 5.71 percent, as stocks bounced off three-year lows reached in the week after the Sept. 11 attacks.

"The economy of the U.S. is slowing down, which could prompt a decline in the dollar," said Charles de Vaulx, co-manager of the $13.4 million First Eagle SoGen Gold Fund (SGGDX). He said a lower dollar generally corresponds to a higher gold price.

He added that the "inflationary consequences" of current fiscal and monetary efforts to stimulate the U.S. economy following the air attacks could also trigger a further advance in the price of gold and gold stocks.

The price of gold, which was around $260 an ounce at the start of 2001, has been closing in on $300, but it hasn't hit that round number yet.

The COMEX December gold <0#GC:> contract traded at $292.50 an ounce in New York Friday afternoon, up $0.90.

Frank Holmes, chairman and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors Inc. (GROW), said the inflationary trend he now expects to develop could drive the price of gold to the $350-$360 level. Holmes oversees the U.S. Global Investors World Gold Fund (UNWPX), which has assets of more than $60 million. The SoGen gold fund boasts a year-to-date return of 35 percent, which de Vaulx said was partly a result of investing in non-hedged gold mining companies, such as Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. and Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM). ....

annie
(10/05/2001; 15:45:31 MDT - Msg ID: 63010)
Armchair Generals
I have seen many posts here and elsewhere that seem to hypothesize that if we strike against bin Laden, there will be terrorist attacks against us, here at home in the USA.

Does anyone believe that if we do NOT strike back, there will be NO additional terrorist attacks? I feel like some are setting things up: if you take action there will be more attacks, so when there are more attacks, well. We told you so.

Some say, we are for action, just not war; just not things that will harm innocents; just not things that would lead to further attacks against American civilians. Well. What is that action? Right now our publicized plan is to give food and medical aid to Afghani citizens. We are taking action in the financial arena by cutting off funds for the terrorists. We may or may not take military action against Osama bin Laden.

Well. Come out of hiding. Say what you are for. If you are for action, say what. Don't come out against some *imagined* plan while saying, I want to do *something*, I just don't know what.

I don't mean to start a firestorm here. I just really want to know.

annie
site steward
(10/05/2001; 16:00:39 MDT - Msg ID: 63011)
Its a matter of trust and performance
http://www.futuresource.com/news/news.asp?story=i4190742791570915329HEADLINE: NY Precious Metals Higher Late, Physical Gold Stronger
---------NEW YORK (Dow Jones) ...."There was small commission house buying. I would characterize it as insurance buying," Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management in Evasnton, Ill., said. "There are people who buy - just a little bit - on Fridays just in case the bombs drop over the weekend." ------------

Buying gold derivatives -- futures and options. Amazing. If someone doesn't trust the duribility of the promisory aspect of our paper money, then why should they find ANY more basis for confidence in holdings of paper gold?! Anyone with real "horse sense" who perceives the dollar is going down would NOT build their anti-dollar position on PAPER gold. They would short the dollar. Period. Make no mistake, paper gold can go down the tubes right along with paper currency. A variation on a theme is all it is. Believe it. Only gold METAL is a proper hedge against promisory paper defaults of every stripe and color.

From this same article is a glimpse of some folks who have figured this out through either diligent thought or maybe just plain ol' luck -- due to inaccessability of derivatives markets:

----------there has been a big jump in physical offtake, mostly in Middle eastern and Asian countries, according to Ian MacDonald, manager of precious metals trading at Commerzbank in New York. "It has become the preferred form of payment in these countries. They're not going to want to own the dollar or the euro," he said. "The majority of these countries are making contingency plans, for whatever reason. Gold is highly portable and liquid," and hence a desirable alternative to Western currencies, he added.------------

Why buy physical gold? Because nobody should have all of their chips on the gaming table all of the time. Physical gold is wealth, safely in pocket. Get you some.

R.
Mr Gresham
(10/05/2001; 16:13:18 MDT - Msg ID: 63012)
Randy -- the Infla-lala tango
Seems your posts are awakening that inflation/ deflation/ default spectrum in my imaginings. It seems that, while prices can go down in a depression, which most would call "deflation", the structural instability worked into the system in recent years guarantees that most debtors who do not hold "pricing power" will slide right on in to default before missing even too many payments.

The slippery slope post-Sept. 11 is a very steep one.

The "middle ground" (Middle -- either in time sequence, or in probability of occurrence) of actual deflation, which might exist in between rampant Inflation, and Default, is a narrowing prospect at this time. Merely because people used to "good" economic times seem unable to imagine massive defaults, they lump that whole side of the outcomes spectrum into the deflation outcome. A two-wing model, instead of my three.

The current mood of despair, money printing, and "gimme gimme" bailout is a perfect precursor to that default situation.

Put another way, how can the massive Japan-like "printing" of digital dollars reconcile with the old (what is it? don't quote me on this, please) GDP = PV = MQ ? Heck, I don't remember which variable goes where, but anyway the V is Velocity, and for GDP to go in the toilet while money is "printed" promiscuously, you need Velocity to implode even faster, which is what happens in a climate of default.

In fact, default accomplishes it in spades, since Velocity slows down as the non-defaulting people conserve "cash" balances (increase their "liquidity preference" for their own protection), AND the defaults are the dollar-destroying equivalent of loans paid back. They come off the books, so maybe even Q (Quantity) contracts, even as Alan pushes on the "wet noodle" of credit creation.

I'm sure you can clean up some of my forgotten Econ 101 here, but I just wanted to post and run back out in the Fall sunshine.

Didn't FOA tag some good ones these coupla days?!!

Mm--mm--mm, can't wait to read Doug Noland tonight! (You've been pretty expressive this week, yourself!)
uponroof
(10/05/2001; 16:15:37 MDT - Msg ID: 63013)
COMEX HOURS....for this month and beyond
with thanks to Don_L.



Press Releases
Release Date: 10/04/01
EXCHANGE ANNOUNCES TRADING HOURS THROUGH NOVEMBER 2


For Immediate Release
Contact: Nachamah Jacobovits
(212) 299-2430
EXCHANGE ANNOUNCES TRADING HOURS THROUGH NOVEMBER 2

NEW YORK, NY, October 4, 2001 � The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc., today announced that it will abide by the following trading hours beginning Monday, October 8, through Friday, November 2:

COMEX Division futures and options contracts:

Contract Time
Copper 9:00 AM to 1:00 PM
Aluminum 9:05 AM to 1:05 PM
Gold 9:05 AM to 1:05 PM
Silver 9:10 AM to 1:10 PM
Eurotop 100� and 300� futures 8:45 AM to 11:00 AM

NYMEX Division futures and options contracts:

Contract Time
Palladium Futures 8:40 AM to 1:00 PM
Platinum 8:45 AM to 1:05 PM
Propane Futures 9:20 AM to 1:10 PM
Natural Gas 10:00 AM to 2:30 PM
Brent Crude Oil 9:45 AM to 2:30 PM
Light, Sweet Crude Oil 10:00 AM to 2:30 PM
Heating Oil 10:05 AM to 2:30 PM
Unleaded Gasoline 10:05 AM to 2:30 PM
Crack Spread Options 10:05 AM to 2:30 PM
Brent/WTI Spread Options 10:00 AM to 2:30 PM
Coal Futures 10:30 AM to 2:00 PM

Internet-based NYMEX ACCESS� will be available from 7:00 PM Sunday night and 3:15 PM Monday through Thursday until 8:00 AM for the next morning for metals futures and 9:00 AM the next morning for all energy futures contracts other than propane. Propane will be traded on the system from 5:00 PM to 7:00 PM Monday through Thursday.

The Exchange anticipates resuming regular trading hours beginning on Monday, November 5.

# # #

uponroof-Guess I'll have to adjust my typical several multi million dollar daily, hundreds of thousands of contracts, market shaking 'block trades' to coincide with this always shifting schedule.

No problemo.

It's easy to sell a couple of ounces to cover the margins any time of the day.


Have a great weekend all.....and watch out for those glowing samsonites.
Mr Gresham
(10/05/2001; 16:19:54 MDT - Msg ID: 63014)
Outcomes
To just wrap up my image, the outcome of both wings of the spectrum -- Inflation, or Default -- is that savers who hold their capital in paper promises lose out. Holders of real assets gain purchasing power.

Yet paper savers are counting on the middle holding -- little inflation, and certainly no default -- and the bond-buyers are even playing for deflation as the middle ground (else why 5.3% TBonds?), holding the default outcome to be impossible. (Not in the Black & Scholes handbook, now, is it?)
AllanC
(10/05/2001; 17:18:13 MDT - Msg ID: 63015)
Galearis, Uponroof, BR549
Galearis: From your #62958... that's an interesting way of looking at it. The psychological factor might even help lead to a favorable result.

Uponroof: Sorry for the sarcasm.

I agree that while the subject may be off topic, (and thanks to MK for his understanding) its resolution may well impact the price of gold. Just look at the Viet Nam war and how the non productive economics of that conflict impacted on inflation during those decades.

As to your solution, sorry, but collateral damage breeds even more collateral damage. Hiroshima should be a good example of the ultimate collateral damage.

And it would be next to impossible to prevent future terrorist events, short of locking up fortress America to the outside world and instituting a police state. They don't even need nuclear suitcases. How about a few Learjets based in the Caribbean loaded up with dynamite. They could head up the coastline flying under the radar screen and turn all of a sudden. A human cruise missile. There are countless means to terrorize a state.

Last but not least:

BR549: You said: "vinny is just the first step in the eradication of terrorism, not the end, just the beginning. Iraq, Iran, and others who harbor these scum will be the end. "

From this armchair liberal, that's exactly the fault with your line of reasoning. Terrorism is not a snake with a head and a tail. It's more like a tide that surges and recedes. How are you going to cut that off?

And further you said: "It is amazing to me the extent that some will go to in order to take the other side of any argument. Is there anyone on earth that deserves punishment for a crime? If not terrorist, then who? As George Carlin said somebody just needs to have a talk with McVeigh, "look Tim, No! Not good!" "

I'm not advocating we try to understand the psychology of these lunatics, but we must realize that as the WTC attacks were completely unjustified they also had a cause. You see those two words are not synonymous in my dictionary.

How could it have been prevented? Easy. We could have left the middle east after desert storm. Why are we still there? Hell, all of the middle east knows that desert storm was about cheap oil, not the liberation of Kuwait. Do you think these people are stupid? Israel be damned. It was this action alone and our continued presence there which turned resentment into outright hate.

And who do you think owns that oil? Gawd man, those people have so little to begin with, no fertile land, no water, no other resources, they are for the most part uneducated and poor, and they are run by undemocratic governments who we happen to favor. Their only resource is their cheap oil and we want it to keep flowing. How would you feel if you were an Arab? Our presence there says 3 or 4 things to the Muslim world. 1)"That is our oil" 2)"We divide and we conquer" 3) "You play by our economic rules" and (to twist a phrase from Orwell's Animal Farm) 4)" All governments should be democratic but some can be less democratic than others" Julius Caesar would have been proud of us.

And I'm not saying that all Arabs feel this hatred, but there are educated nationalistic elements in all societies. And just like us in the West, they have an agenda to further their aspirations. That in essence is the root cause of the WTC bombing, IMHO.

Now how would we find the terrorists?

I will assume as you put it that he's behind it. Now we go after Bin Larden, but then what if we can't find him. Forget the Mountain Forces...the Soviets had their special units too and they trained them in the bitter Siberian cold. Of what use were they when they couldn't locate the enemy. That is not their terrain and they are at a disadvantage. So we go after collateral suspects in the hope of getting him and where does it end? Now we are only in the initial stages, but see how long the world alliance will tolerate indiscriminate bombings and remain an alliance. Not too long I'm afraid....and how will we know when the last terrorist has been removed?

Bin Larden has an organization there, but some elements, sensing danger could easily leave the country undetected. They could slip into Pakistan easily enough. And we would be left fighting the Taliban, to teach them a lesson...no doubt. And even if the Taliban are defeated, we may be assuming incorrectly that Bin Larden would remain to be turned over. My assumption is based on the fact that he is easy to recognize and has a sizeable reward on his head. Now if he is turned over, can you guarantee that someone unknown to us would not take his place? We know he has operatives in other countries.

While a hostile terrain is a good breeding ground, it should be obvious to anyone that a terror organization can function and organize inconspicuously within even a friendly society. We suspect the 911 cell organized the bombing from Germany. And what about our friend Timothy McVeigh, he may have had unknown accomplices still walking around undetected. Now we don't want to accuse the good ole USA of harboring terrorists now do we?

As for the money trail, I wouldn't bet on it leading to the primary source. I was reading somewhere that there are some methods of sending money in the Islamic world which are virtually untraceable. Now it may have started in Afghanistan but it could just as easily have been funded from any friendly Arab country. Suppose Osamy had funded it from Yemen, while hiding out there, even though his network still existed in Afghanistan. Then I take it according to your logic that Yemen should also be a selected target for harboring a terrorist. Brilliant!

You seem hell bent on doing something, so go on and enlighten me. Let me have it....how do you target a undetectable secretive element without compromising the liberties and the rights of innocent civilians everywhere? Not just Americans.

I certainly don't have a pat solution, but I think this requires a lot more thought than you have given it. Therefore this dumb liberal is going to sit back, relax and smell the coffee.

AllanC
mhchuck
(10/05/2001; 17:33:51 MDT - Msg ID: 63016)
"Horse Sense."
site steward (10/5/01; 16:00:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 63011)
Anyone with real "horse sense" who perceives the dollar is going down would NOT build their anti-dollar position on PAPER gold.

The Saga of "Golden Chariot"

They are continually throwing mud in its face and the golden horse keeps falling farther and farther behind. Unfortunately (for them) is that they have underestimated his Stamina. THIS HORSE NEVER GETS TIRED!!!!!!!! Imagine that? NEVER GETS TIRED!!!!!! Those who wager on this horse are going to be actors in a true life "Hollywood" ending. They are going to see this horse overcome terrible adversity. This horse is going to overcome epithets that it is "washed up, crippled, and will never run again." The only way it will not win is if they kill him. (Which is being attempted) Again, a tragic miscalculation on their part. You see, "Golden Chariot" has other family members who have vowed to enter the race should tragedy befall him. And even the slowest member of the family, named "Used Tin Cans," has enough speed to win the race against the cabal's proclaimed stable of champions, "Paper Blizzard," "Dollar Hegemony," And the newly crowned EUROpean champion, the in-bred, and highly touted "Imaginary Currency."

Remember the Morlocks in H. G. Wells, "The Time Machine?" How they lived under ground and how they herded and cannibalized the Eloi? That's the cabal. The Morlocks were afraid of fire and light. Gold is the fire of freedom and the light of truth which they fear as a vampire fears a cross.

mhchuck

mhchuck
(10/05/2001; 18:16:35 MDT - Msg ID: 63017)
(No Subject)
Getting carried away.
I'm imagining a meeting with Alan Greenspan and the FOMC members where I pull out a 1oz. Eagle and they all flee the room half-melted and blind. Then I go to the "House" to clean up congress where they all flee in terror. Ron Paul then comes over to me and says, "Why didn't I think of that."

mhmitty
tg
(10/05/2001; 18:18:42 MDT - Msg ID: 63018)
(No Subject)
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/By Marc Faber


It is very difficult to define terrorism, since different people view events from very different perspectives. Were Alexander the Great, Spartacus, Genghis Khan, Napoleon, Hernando Cort�s, Francisco Pizarro, Mao Tse-tung and Ho Chi Minh, the anarchists Che Guevara and Nelson Mandela, and the American "outlaws" Bonnie and Clyde terrorists, freedom fighters, rebels, heroes of the revolution, or bloodthirsty conquerors and butchers who were driven purely by greed and glory into massacring countless innocent people?

It is likely that the Incas and the Aztecs regarded the Spanish conquerors, who destroyed their empires with modern weapons and "monster" horses, as evil, vicious, and ruthless aggressors. Similarly, the Romans must have considered the slave gladiator Spartacus, who led the slave uprising between 73 and 71 BC and assembled an army of 70,000 men, as a terrorist who seriously threatened the fabric of the Roman Empire. (Yet, in the 1960 Hollywood production, Spartacus was glorified by the actor Kirk Douglas.)

I also suppose that the pirates who pillaged and destroyed other vessels for their own account - a very lucrative business after the discovery of the Americas - have to be considered as terrorists, whereas Francis Drake, who did the same in the name of Queen Elizabeth I, was just a good "soldier". Obviously there is often only a very fine line between heroes, gangsters, revolutionaries, and terrorists. As the historian Will Durant has pointed out, "normally and generally men are judged by their ability to produce - except in war, when they are ranked according to their ability to destroy."

The second question we have to deal with is whether we, the rich nations, have done anything to antagonise some members of society so badly that it led to this latest attack. Here I have to say that, throughout history and up to this very day, we have been terrible role models. This includes even our religious institutions, which, since the formation of the Church, have actively fermented racism, in particular anti-Semitism, and have mostly been driven by motives of power or greed. We conquered continents, wiped out entire indigenous populations, enslaved and deported innocent villagers, committed the Holocaust, carpet bombed Cambodia, killed masses of civilians in Vietnam, have kept on bombing Iraq and bombed Serbia, which brought great economic pain to these already poor countries and resulted in civilian casualties.

And when it suited our economic and strategic interests, we supported leaders who were villains, or when leaders were hostile to our interests we supported and worked with terrorist groups and had them trained by the CIA in order to topple these "hostile" regimes.

In fact, when it came to making money by selling expensive weapons, we actively supported Saddam Hussein in his war against Iran, and worse, today we embargo Myanmar, while we happily do business in China, whose human rights violations are no different than Myanmar's. Economically, we have watched wealth inequity rise over the last 200 years to an unprecedented level: today, more than a billion people are totally impoverished and live on less than one dollar a day.

Thus, the relative wealth and income equality the world enjoyed before the Industrial Revolution has been replaced by uncountable forms of mental, physical, and economic differentiation, with the result that the gap between the wealthiest and the poorest is now greater than at any time in history. But, as Will Durant has also pointed out, "the concentration [of wealth] may reach a point where the strength of numbers in the many poor rivals the strength of ability in the few rich; then the unstable equilibrium generates a critical situation, which history has diversely met by legislation redistributing wealth or by revolution distributing poverty."

We have dismissed the anti-globalisation demonstrators as lunatics and have walked out of the recent Durban conference. And while we provide, in our own countries, extensive medical care to our citizens, we deprive the poorest of this world of access to drugs at affordable prices and just watch them die. Now, think for a minute how the impoverished and destitute of this world feel about us and about their ability to fight us. We have air and missile superiority against which no country has a chance to claim victory.

The only way for the very poor to fight us and defend themselves is with terrorist attacks and guerrilla warfare; actions I certainly don't support, but which, given the circumstances I have just highlighted, I can understand. The problem is really that we have created a world in which far too many people - at least a billion of them - have nothing to lose except their (mostly miserable) lives. They are disenchanted with our Western society and the way we have treated them.

We may be at the dawn of a new era in warfare, whereby future wars may involve not political power blocs fighting each other over territories, but the disenfranchised poor fighting by means of terrorism, piracy, crime, and urban guerrilla activities for whatever they might consider to be their rights and for a larger share of the world's economic pie.

In this situation, to retaliate against whoever was responsible for the attack would only remove one symptom of a very unbalanced and largely impoverished world, which is increasingly suffering from a malaise. To combat successfully future disastrous attacks on our civil liberties will require much more than just military retaliation. It will require us to think more carefully about how we can strike a balance between progress and wealth in our Western and highly developed civilisation and the large number of destitute people in the world who have no other means to fight and express their grievances than through acts of atrocities.

Moreover, just taking out the leader of the recent attack may only increase his status to that of a martyr. Other terrorists, guerrillas, freedom fighters, or whatever we may wish to call them, will then follow in his footsteps and see to it that history continues to be, as Voltaire observed, "a collection of the crimes, follies and misfortunes" of mankind.

From an economic point of view, the recent events can only be negative. Often, the purchase of equities in a crisis is rewarding and, based on the experience of the Gulf War in 1990, investors will be tempted to buy into any weakness. But I am afraid that, in this particular case, the crisis may lead to further social and geopolitical tensions and, when combined with the anti-globalisation movement, to less trade and a more protectionist agenda. It will probably also lessen foreigners' enthusiasm for US assets and weaken the already wobbly dollar.

In turn, if tensions around the world increase, as I think they will, gold and gold shares should benefit. Having said that, the present crisis occurring at a time when the stock markets around the world are already moderately oversold may lead to a late September/early October low from where a decent bear market rally could take place
Netking
(10/05/2001; 18:47:04 MDT - Msg ID: 63019)
Bin Laden's dangerous Mideast links
http://www.ekathimerini.com/news/content.asp?aid=102375This article from Kathimerini provides another view on bin Laden & the "Saudi factor", one thing for sure the networks links & cells are not confined to caves & mountains of one particular country yes - Netking
-----------------------------------------------------------
As Western security agencies intensify their search for possible cells of Osama bin Laden's Al-Qaeda terrorist group, reliable Arab diplomatic sources in Athens said yesterday that the network could have a very different and far more dangerous dimension. They claim that bin Laden's network is not made up only of illegal, dissident groups but has managed to infiltrate the military, the secret services and even government circles of Arab states, including the two leading countries of the Arab world, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

According to these sources, the heart of bin Laden's network is not in Afghanistan but in the country of his birth, Saudi Arabia. It is well known that bin Laden, a member of the Saudi economic elite, enjoyed close ties with the royal family during the war against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. He clashed with the family when King Fahd allied himself with the United States in the Gulf War and after the bomb attack against US forces in Riyadh in November 1995.

What is not known is that bin Laden never severed his ties with the strongest member of the Saudi royal family, Prince Abdullah, who, in effect, is ruling the kingdom as Fahd has been confined to a wheelchair. Abdullah, the crown prince, is not favored by Washington because of his disapproval of the US military presence but also because of his strong anti-Israeli position on the Palestinian issue. Well-informed diplomatic sources of another Arab country say that Abdullah kept in touch with bin Laden through the Saudi secret service chief, Prince Turki, who disappeared in late August. . . (more)
Black Blade
(10/05/2001; 19:01:44 MDT - Msg ID: 63020)
Forbes Body Count
http://www.forbes.com/2001/01/30/layoffs.html
Nearly 14,000 more nonessential "Bags O' Bones" cast upon the growing "Bone Pile." Getting more "Grim" by the hour. Market indices rose today on horrific news - but mostly due to institutional buying and perhaps under the guidance of the Presidents "Working Group on Financial Markets." Individuals are sitting this one out. Layoffs look to increase exponentially here on out. Corporate earnings are nearly nonexistent and earnings growth is clearly negative. This is the stuff of legends are made of (horror stories from our Grandparents and Great Grandparents during the Great Depression). "Interesting and Grim Times"
sector
(10/05/2001; 19:15:11 MDT - Msg ID: 63021)
@AllenC The Wrong Side of the Paradigm
The WTC had nothing to do with American presence in Saudi Arabia -- media analysts notwithstanding. Indeed, had the US left after the Gulf War, Hussein would simply have retaken Saudi Arabia and Kuwait by now and your automobile fuel would be near $100 per gallon if you could get it at all.

What you have missed here is the nature if Islam. It is not compatible with Western culture, philosophy or thought. The history of invasions from North Africa into Europe stands as proof of Islam's ideological hegemony and negates the protests that Muslims are "peaceful". Louis Farrakan is quit the poster boy for Islamic "Peace".

Mohammed Atta is the first of an army of soldiers of Islam bent on your destruction, the deaths of your children and family. They are not fringe Muslim elements but its foot soldiers, sappers and spear points. They will use nuclear weapons as soon as they get them. They will use those weapons on us whether or not we are "Still in the Middle East".

You have missed the entire point of the new, post WTC paradigm. The US is at war with perhaps thousands of trained, suicidal killers on the loose inside the US and millions of death wishers and hopers outside. Your perceptual field still sees a safe "multicultural world" with the evil US as the culprit.

Perhaps the next terrorist atrocity will jolt you into the correct side of this paradigm. Perhaps the loss of someone you know .

You are right however that cutting off the snake's head isn't enough. We must unequivically communicate our desire, capacity and motivation to take their last man. Only then will they back off . The collateral damage you worry about seems oddly biased towards our enemy's collateral.

As for shutting our borders...it already has been. What remains next is the systematic removal of all possible internal threats.

What this has to do with gold is quite apropo since within this new domain, the balance of ideas always tilts inexorably towards those who accept the new truth whether it be geopolitical, cultural or financial. You will eventually accept it too.
Netking
(10/05/2001; 19:55:47 MDT - Msg ID: 63022)
Annie
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20World%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topworld&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_windex&bt=ad_position1_windex∣dle=ad_frame2_windex&s=AO73EbxYxQ2VudGVyAnnie(62990)Re: 2nd case. Some sort of media blackout? I could only find it at Bloomberg as per link.
Canuck
(10/05/2001; 20:17:33 MDT - Msg ID: 63023)
sector, allan c., all
Thanks for the notes gentlemen.

Canadian Thanksgiving this week-end, up at the cottage to close up for the season. Three weeks ago swimming and boating and any colder tonight might be ice-fishing in the morning.

The TSE is closed Monday so I want you guys to keep the crooks in line until Tuesday. Have a nice week-end, and wow did the stocks ever rock late afternoon. (Goldcorp and Agnico).

Might check in tomorrow morning, whooping the brother-in-law at poker at the moment, I hate when that happens.

Must run....

Canuck
Netking
(10/05/2001; 20:22:52 MDT - Msg ID: 63024)
Silver
Sir Galearis etc - Since earlier on, more seems to be emerging about symptoms of physical Ag shortages showing through the retail networks. I guess it's on a geographical basis for sure and maybe temporary(?), but then again (examples below). . . .
------------------------------------------------------------
(BarZ) Oct 05, 11:14
i just got off the phone with kitco .......the reason my order was refused is...........they only have 3 one hundred ounce bars of silver left, and see none for future delivery.
------------------------------------------------------------
Silver(AussieInvestor) Oct 05, 08:27
Just been down to the Perth Mint and they are out of 100 and 250oz bars. The girl I spoke to didnt know when they would get more. Still plenty of 50oz left though...
------------------------------------------------------------
Time will tell, but this "just may be" the early stages of the squeeze . . . .
- Netking
BR549
(10/05/2001; 20:23:50 MDT - Msg ID: 63025)
The "do nothings" vs. The "do somethings"

AllanC-"�but we must realize that as the WTC attacks were completely unjustified they also had a cause." "You seem hell bent on doing something, so go on and enlighten me. Let me have it....how do you target a undetectable secretive element without compromising the liberties and the rights of innocent civilians everywhere? Not just Americans."

Tg--"The second question we have to deal with is whether we, the rich nations, have done anything to antagonise some members of society so badly that it led to this latest attack."

These statements say it all for the rationale of the 60's oriented "do nothing" liberal agenda, i.e., The World's Democracy's (rich nations) deserved the WTC, Pentagon, and the PA air crash, that is we caused it, therefore we cannot jeopardize other "innocents" so the solution is to "do nothing". In fact there is always an innate criticism of whatever actions are being carried out by the "do somethings" by you "do nothings", never an alternative workable solution. As Tom Clancy so ably says, "Liberals like to paint pictures of bridges, and conservatives like to build bridges that people can drive across".

AllanC--Your quote ""So the way I figure it, one American life is worth at least 10 Afgani lives" and "I certainly don't have a pat solution, but I think this requires a lot more thought than you have given it."

So how many more innocent lives snuffed before you and others like you would change into "do somethings"? So far the score in your terms is about 6,000 to nothing, scumbags in the lead. How many more innocents have to die before you propose a "pat" or "any" solution? 60,000, 600,000, or maybe 6,000,000?

As to my solution�you have not come anywhere near it. The war against terrorism is two pronged�economic and military. If done properly, the economic war will cut off future terrorist's funds, providing that the "money changers" cooperate, which they have to date. You can smuggle a lot of items via camel in the ME that cannot be transported electronically in the World Alliance in order to fund organized terrorism. This is the first war of the 21st Century and so far it is being fought much differently than previous wars. For every terrorist dollar, Euro, Petro-Dollar, or oz. of gold that can be confiscated by the World Alliance against terror, then that is one more "innocent" life that may be spared. As far as the other war, the military one, I will leave that to the military, maybe as soon as this weekend. Tony Blair---"Surrender the terrorists or surrender power"

AllanC�" Therefore this dumb liberal is going to sit back, relax and smell the coffee." One final thought, IMHO the term "dumb liberal" is redundant. (Ha!)

Armchair General BR549, over and out.
site steward
(10/05/2001; 20:25:47 MDT - Msg ID: 63026)
From the latest Gold Trail update:
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/4200110/default.htmlFOA wrote,
----"I have to laugh at all these jokers that keep trying to understand the ECB gold policy as some sort of currency backing similar to years past. It just flies right past them that the ECB wants gold as an dollar replacing asset, not local money backing. For your European clients, they would be in the best of all worlds it they buy gold now. Their system is almost making rising gold a law so as to buffer domestic dollar exchange rate loses."----

For anyone who doubts this element -- "their system is almost making rising gold a law" -- please click the URL above and then scroll halfway down to the following news coverage on the subject:

site steward (10/4/01; 14:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 62925)
--One Week Ago... and This Week: Paper and Gold--

Happy reading!

R.
Netking
(10/05/2001; 21:34:00 MDT - Msg ID: 63027)
Silver - 'Short II'
'Silver Bugs' . . . some more compiled tales from around the globe of Ag supply squeezes - Netking
------------------------------------------------------------
Silver 100 oz bars(G-khan) Oct 05, 13:16
I just called my local Silver dealer and he said he can not get me 100 oz bars as he has been searching and there are none to be found. You will also have a hard time getting bags of 90% coin the Silver supply is almost gone if you want any physical you best get it now. . . .
------------------------------------------------------------
Canadian Silver supply, difficult to find ?(Wildfire) Oct 05, 13:22
I buy from a bank here that is an official dealer for the Canadian mint. They buy/sell Canadian Maple leafs and vairious weight bars in gold and silver. I normally wait one week for delivery. My most recent purchase of 200 oz silver was ordered three weeks ago and there is still no sign of it. They are unable to give me a delivery date.
------------------------------------------------------------
(BarnacleBob) Oct 05, 14:04
I just got off the phone with my PM broker, he says that he can get plenty of 100 oz'ers, but the premium is higher than usual.
------------------------------------------------------------
silver pandas(wboll) Oct 05, 14:04
If you are a Silver Panda Collector take note of this. A week ago Panda America doubled its wholesale price to dealers on all early-date Silver Pandas. Their excuse was that they were almost out of them and the China Mint was no longer supplying them.
------------------------------------------------------------
silver(son-of-curtis) Oct 05, 15:04
Just to verify . . . My dealer who has left about 25,000 oz said he cannot get any more 100oz bars. If he could they would cost $5.09 delivered. Also reported much more activity by the local population who are starting to get interested in coins and metal again. After Y2K it was almost impossible as most people were sellers. . . ."
------------------------------------------------------------
(G-khan) Oct 05, 15:44 I got a bunch of Emails with dealers numbers and websites... Some said they had the Silver in stock and some said they could get it. There was one that said they were the largest dealer on the West coast and they had 300 bars - the other one that said they had them said they had 7 bars. The big problem seems to be the wholesalers do not have the bars to sell to local dealers . . ."
------------------------------------------------------------
Meanwhile on the Gold front I heard that The US Mint reported sales of 52,500 ounces of gold coins in Sept compared with 6,500 ounces in August. The way to beat the paper market, every time, has been to purchase physical and more physical gold & silver alike. For some reason they just can't multiply physical PM's the same way they can paper!
- Netking
Black Blade
(10/05/2001; 21:58:21 MDT - Msg ID: 63028)
Mining companies polishing image for partners
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/011005/n05282923_1.html
Snippit:

DENVER, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Rising gold prices have revived interest in gold mining company mergers and acquisitions, but with several major deals already announced, company executives are not sure how many more transactions are on the horizon. ``The easy (deals) have been done,'' Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE:NEM) Chairman Ronald Cambre told Reuters. Any others that are still logical ``are being worked on.'' Nevertheless, some mining executives were keen to polish their images at the Denver Gold Group Mining Investment Forum, which was held this week.

Black Blade: Unhedged profitable Gold miners don't have this problem. They do well on their own. Only the desperate such as Barrick (ABX) and AngloGold (AU) are seeking mergers at any price.
Black Blade
(10/05/2001; 22:06:38 MDT - Msg ID: 63029)
Dollar Thrifty cuts 20 pct of workforce
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/011005/n05313961_1.html
Snippit:

TUSLA, Okla., Oct 5 (Reuters) - Dollar Thrifty Automotive Group (NYSE:DTG), the car rental operator, said on Friday it was cutting 20 percent of its workforce as it tries to recoup losses from the travel slowdown after the Sept. 11 attacks. Dollar Thrifty said the 1,200 job cuts would affect management and hourly workers in the parent firm Dollar Thrifty Automotive Group and its operating companies Dollar Rent A Car Systems and Thrifty.

Black Blade: More nonessential "Bones" are cast aside like a used $5 whore. This is getting uglier and uglier by the hour. This Recession is to be extremely severe - as Warren Buffett said - "relatively deep and extended"
The Invisible Hand
(10/05/2001; 22:07:09 MDT - Msg ID: 63030)
FT: derivatives markets are impenetrable
http://markets.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3P94V3GSC&live=true
In a column saying that:
- cheap bond yields are difficult for governments to manipulate as a form of economic stimulation
-in normal circumstances a fall in short-term interest rates is regarded positively. But extreme cuts pose the awkward question of whether something has gone fundamentally wrong. British savers with short-term deposit accounts are seeing their interest income slipping into the negative zone in real terms, at any rate if they are liable to higher rate tax,

Barry Riley writes in tomorrow's FT that there is always anxiety about what is going on in the impenetrable derivatives markets and that there are fears about a string of major corporate bankruptcies, of which the spectacular Swissair failure may have been only a foretaste.

Any hedge funds, perhaps?
AllanC
(10/05/2001; 22:13:31 MDT - Msg ID: 63031)
BR549
" One final thought, IMHO the term "dumb liberal" is redundant. (Ha!) "

Now that was very good.

But back to the point. Perhaps you misunderstood my post. There is a semantic difference between the words causation and justification. One word specifically means just that: Was the action warranted? It calls for a moral judgement. And I stated emphatically NO. And as for "doing nothing", I don't think altering our foreign policy (or aiding in getting the Taliban defeated) can be construed as inaction.

Let me anticipate your response. You will no doubt say that doing so would be giving in to terrorism. No?

My response to that is that when our position in the middle east is morally untenable, the most effective means of dealing with unforeseen consequences of that policy is to change it. You may think it signals surrender in the short run, and some may interpret it that way. But in the long run it is the least costly way of dealing with terrorism. If you really believe this New War of the 21st century can be won without a tremendous economic cost, then you are sadly mistaken.

Nice to see you read Marc Faber's article as posted by TG. I thought it was quite good actually and deserves another good read on your part. I think you took that quote out of context to the whole message. A re-occurring oversight on your part I suppose.

And I'll end with a quote from Mr Spock: "You are being too emotional, sir, and most illogical I might add"


sector
(10/05/2001; 22:31:28 MDT - Msg ID: 63032)
@NetKing and Annie About the Second Case...
...The CDC's website has no reference in their news releases of a second case either as a hoax or as a confirmed report. One would surmise that they would be interested in swiftly debunking hoaxes.

My daughter who lives in Jupiter, Florida not far from Lantana, the home of the first anthrax victim, tells me this evening that the victim went fishing according to his family in the Belle Glade area near Lake Okeechobee just prior to showing symptoms. Bell Glade is the location at which Mohammed Atta sought crop duster information on several occasions.

If there is a second case and if the second victim passed near Belle Glade then that piece of evidence would support the existence of a terrorist clandestine biological lab in th Belle Glade area which is leaking spores of anthrax. It would also set the radius of the intended target at about 100 miles since after the attack all airfields servicing crop dusters fields would be thoroughly searched. The search would likely lead to the lab so the attack and lab are single use assets.
AllanC
(10/05/2001; 22:32:27 MDT - Msg ID: 63033)
Sector
You said:" Indeed, had the US left after the Gulf War, Hussein would simply have retaken Saudi Arabia and Kuwait by now and your automobile fuel would be near $100 per gallon if you could get it at all."

Not correct. His infrastructure was in tatters. While he had some RG (Republican Guard) units intact, he was no longer a real threat. And we were more mobile and able to respond quicky from bases in the US.

You can't even begin an invasion from 600 miles away without some advance signs and with satellites etc we would have been there on time to repel it.

And I don't for a minute believe it's a case of Islam vs Christianity. It may be a side issue, but I think the primary reason is economic. That's always been the case in wars.
Black Blade
(10/05/2001; 23:33:26 MDT - Msg ID: 63034)
Next Week's Market Forces
http://www.dismal.com/thoughts/article.asp?aid=1402

All hands are on deck for what looks to be a tempestuous earnings season.

Snippit:

Companies continue to shower the market with profit warnings and layoff announcements. With each, an economic recovery, and thus a rebound in corporate profits, seems to move farther out on the horizon. And although the Federal Reserve and Congress are both working hard to steer the economy out of troubled waters, they're finding that businesses and consumers aren't easily swayed. Indeed, while the inflation-adjusted fed funds rate now stands close to zero and fresh tax cuts are on the docket, few businesses are rushing to invest and consumers continue to pinch pennies. With Americans still struggling to come to terms with the terrorist attacks of September 11 and ascertain their economic consequences, it's little wonder many are hunkering down.

Black Blade: Absolutely correct! Looks to be a long term Deep Recession (or worse). Everyone should be in Survival Mode! Get necessities, get out of debt, get hard assets like Gold and Silver for portfolio insurance, a few months supply of cash, and hang on for the ride - "The Perfect Storm"

Black Blade
(10/06/2001; 00:05:25 MDT - Msg ID: 63035)
Natural Gas Falls as Inventories Seen Rising Close to Record
http://www.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AO74XUhWdTmF0dXJh
Snippit:

New York, Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Natural gas futures fell almost 8 percent on signs that U.S. distributors will be well- supplied for the winter heating season. Underground storage tanks are close to full with weeks to go before the start of winter and prices down 77 percent this year. Gas futures rose yesterday, capping a three-session 9.3 percent rally, after the American Gas Association reported a smaller-than- normal inventory gain last week.

Gas futures have plunged this year, touching a 2 1/2-year low of $1.76 per million Btu on Sept. 26, as the economic slowdown in the U.S. reduced demand from industrial users such as steel and chemical companies. Manufacturers account for about a quarter of U.S. gas demand. Gas futures have plunged this year, touching a 2 1/2-year low of $1.76 per million Btu on Sept. 26, as the economic slowdown in the U.S. reduced demand from industrial users such as steel and chemical companies. Manufacturers account for about a quarter of U.S. gas demand.


Black Blade: It will be some time until sufficient infrastructure and abundant supply will help the US economy out of Recession. Increased energy demand from an economy expanding out of Recession will cap any recovery. The continuing problems with a decaying energy grid, energy supply bottlenecks and insufficient energy supply still plague the market. Until these problems are addressed we will remain in an extended Recession.
View Yesterday's Discussion.

Netking
(10/06/2001; 00:20:29 MDT - Msg ID: 63036)
@Sector
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/americas/newsid_1580000/1580146.stmsector(63032)Interesting info from you. It seems the first (& confirmed case) contracted maybe the rarest and most potent of the three Anthrax strains . . . caused by inhaling spores. The death being the first case of pulmonary anthrax in America since the 1970s, and one of only a handful in the country in the past 100 years.

I've heard it said that colloidal silver has anti-anthrax properties(in theory)as does conventional antibiotics etc in the earlier stages of contraction.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/health/newsid_1580000/1580930.stm
Black Blade
(10/06/2001; 00:30:53 MDT - Msg ID: 63037)
FBI, CIA Warn Congress of More Attacks As Blair Details Case Against Bin Laden
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A8418-2001Oct4?language=printer
Retaliation Feared If U.S. Strikes Afghanistan

Snippit:

U.S. intelligence officials have told members of Congress there is a high probability that terrorists associated with Osama bin Laden will try to launch another major attack on American targets here or abroad in the near future. Based on what officials described as credible new information, the FBI and the CIA have assessed the chances of a second attempt to attack the United States as very high, sources said yesterday.

At a briefing Tuesday, in response to a senator's question about the gravity of the threat, one intelligence official said there is a "100 percent" chance of an attack should the United States strike Afghanistan, according to sources familiar with the briefing. Government officials are fearful of attacks at any of hundreds or thousands of locations, including symbols of American power and culture, such as government buildings in Washington and centers of entertainment. They are concerned about truck bomb and car bomb explosions that could be detonated near natural gas lines, power plants and other sites that one source described as "exposed infrastructure." But U.S. intelligence and law enforcement agencies do not have specific information on the nature of future attacks. The Coast Guard is boarding and searching ships in New York, Boston and other harbors, and security has been stepped up around nuclear power plants, oil pipelines, refineries and other potential targets.


Black Blade: Should terrorists attack the US energy grid then it is definitely "Game Over." Vitually nothing has been done to upgrade and expand the energy grid. This is one area where the US is extremely vulnerable and a couple of attacks on oil refineries, a loading facility, oil or natural gas pipeline, power generating facilities, etc. Then it's "Lights Out." We live in "Interesting Times"
BR549
(10/06/2001; 02:10:50 MDT - Msg ID: 63038)
Again, your solution to terrorism is????
@AllanC---"My response to that is that when our position in the middle east is morally untenable, the most effective means of dealing with unforeseen consequences of that policy is to change it."

Huh?

Since you are very astute in debating with yourself and responsing to your own posts, then kindly ask yourself these questions and then attempt to answer:

Are there any circumstances in which you would advocate taking any economic and/or military actions to defeat international terrorism? Is so, what would those actions specifically consist of? How would you change things? What is your solution to terrorism?

BR549

BTW---The other misconception that you have is that terrorism is an American problem caused by failed American foreign policy. Innocents from over 60 countries died on 911, including many Muslims from ME countries. I won't even get into how wrong you have it about Iraq.
And�ril
(10/06/2001; 02:15:21 MDT - Msg ID: 63039)
Used to be a gold forum
And a good one at that.

What happened?
Netking
(10/06/2001; 02:18:23 MDT - Msg ID: 63040)
"Pedal To The Metal" - Storm Watch by Jim Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/update.htmAnother great read from Jim, his link says it all. Again bullish for the outlook for POG & POS. - Netking
------------------------------------------------------------
Snippet:
Smart Money Moving Quietly

". . . .The smart money is heading into gold and silver. They have been buying and continue to buy. This is reflected in the rise in gold and silver shares this year as well as a rise in the price of the physical metal. Another crisis is waiting for those who have gone short. Imagine what they thought after September 11 when our markets were closed and they were short gold and silver bullion or short mining shares. Dealers across the country are reporting robust buying. There are even delays reported in getting physical possession of hard metals. Some may be surprised to learn that a good portion of it remains buried underneath the Trade Center.

Silver is on the verge of exploding. Unlike the rise in the price of gold after the Sept. 11 attacks, silver prices have barely budged. Demand for silver continues to outstrip supply. Unlike gold, where central banks still hold vast quantities that can be lent to the markets to suppress prices, there are no vast hoards of silver. The stockpiles from the 80's have been greatly reduced. According to the CPM Group, silver stockpiles fell to 500 million ounces last year. We are currently running silver deficits of 10 million ounces a month. Just last month someone tried to buy 10 million ounces and it pushed the price up 25 cents an ounce. When the hive wakes up to this fact the price is headed for a moon shot.

The gold market has awakened as a result of the Trade Center attack. Even gold pessimist such as Andy Smith of Mitsui Securities in London has done an about-face. According to Smith, "The price of gold could go to $340 an ounce within the next three months - and continue to soar after that." As I have stated, "There will come a day unlike any other day..." that day is coming for gold and silver.(end)"
tedw
(10/06/2001; 05:48:44 MDT - Msg ID: 63041)
war update
WWW.USA.GOLD
Score
Innings

1 2
Terrorists 5000 ?
USA 0 ?
tedw
(10/06/2001; 05:50:35 MDT - Msg ID: 63042)
war update

Innings 1 2

Terrorists 5000 ?

Home team 0 ?




The Invisible Hand
(10/06/2001; 06:59:13 MDT - Msg ID: 63043)
HOF nomination
I do nominate And�ril (10/6/01; 02:15:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 63039)'s 'Used to be a gold forum' to the Hall of Fame.
If I'm not mistaken, this was And�ril's first post - Welcome And�ril.
Any seconds?

Gandalf the White
(10/06/2001; 09:37:05 MDT - Msg ID: 63044)
Welcome SIR And�ril
Re: The Invisible Hand (msg#: 63043) "HOF nomination"
for the posting --'Used to be a gold forum'
====
Shall we all try to get back to "ON SUBJECT" postings ?
Thanks for the "slap to the head", Sir Anduril!!
The Hobbits are asking you for your thoughts on the $US292. SPOT "barrier". Do we await SPIKE the Dog, before SPOT the dog breaks that "barrier" ? Which shall come first ?
<;-)
Mr Gresham
(10/06/2001; 10:07:46 MDT - Msg ID: 63045)
Mauldin
http://www.2000wave.com/Home1/10-4-01.pdf(Aaargh! Too many windows open on this computer! Well at least I'm through Doug Noland's, and twice on FOA's Solid Ground...)

I'm halfway through this excellent dissection of MPT -- Modern Portfolio Theory -- and I realize while reading it the "Western" bias, as FOA would alert us: that everything is denominated in Dollars. There is no asset that regularly stands outside of a dollar "payoff" (or loss) in investors' minds.

Invisible Hand & Anduril: Don't you think that much of what we diverge from gold about here is pointing out the perils faced by the "dollar world" and its "paper" economy, the herd psychology of investors, and the solidity of physical possessions, as opposed to abstract derivatives?

You understand physical gold (which is pretty quiet on its own) by debunking some of the crap that stands on the other side, preoccupying peoples' minds.

Where else do (mostly) Americans try to peer at ourselves from another perspective, beyond our borders, as our nation faces a dismal future with its hollowed-out productive skills depleted?

OK, you're right: we do get carried away. (Maybe I've just gotten used to skimming through the Afghanistan stuff pretty quickly. I do come here first for my news, however. Great newshounds!) We need to constantly and individually steer ourselves back to being considerate of the group as a whole.

But, consider also that the last three weeks has been a State of Shock. (I got Zip done, still not sure if I'm back to "work".) We're doing some Therapy here, and trying to get our feet back under ourselves. Well, I'd venture that gold-holders are feeling a lot less shaky than those around us, and for that I'm grateful.

Invisible Hand: Isn't it amazing when you think of Europe putting the cap on the post-Sept. 11 gold spike! I guess timing is everything at this point for them. Have you seen any European remarks or writings in your researches around the economic world that suggest or corroborate what FOA is saying here? Has the "plan" been that well "backgrounded"?

(FOA: "I fully well expect Europe to sell into any dollar gold market spikes,,,,now,,,'so as to hold the level steady,,,in an effort to inflate paper and discredit our gold market. Eventually they will move to create a rift between physical dollar gold prices and dollar derivatives prices.")

Taking it all back to the "money concept" really helps in unsettled times...



Mr Gresham
(10/06/2001; 10:09:19 MDT - Msg ID: 63046)
Anduril
oops, and I also meant to add "Welcome" to my message below -- look forward to hearing your thoughts as well!
Galearis
(10/06/2001; 10:33:17 MDT - Msg ID: 63047)
@Netking on Puplava bit.
Agree almost entirely, but....Paper) Silver has not only mirrored paper gold in its moves
but has outperformed it in paper % terms (smile).

Of course you knew that too....
Of course you did.
Have a nice one. Off to our earlier Thanksgiving fest.

G.
Black Blade
(10/06/2001; 10:33:51 MDT - Msg ID: 63048)
Stocks Expected to Fall on Profit Gloom
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/011006/business_markets_stocks_dc_5.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street is looking for stocks to pull back in coming days, snapping a two-week rally as investors prepare for the worst corporate profits in a decade to start pouring in. Next week marks the beginning of the third-quarter earnings season, when companies report financial results and hint at what is to come later in the year. The earnings reports are expected to show the sagging U.S. economy, as well as slower consumer and capital spending, slammed profits last quarter -- and will continue to weigh into next year.

Analysts now forecast third-quarter profits will fall an average of 21.3 percent from the same period a year ago, according to Thomson Financial/First Call. That's the worst performance since the second quarter of 1991.

It gets worse. Currently, analysts expect full-year profits to be down 13.8 percent. But First Call strategists say those analysts' forecasts will probably come down about 3 percentage points more, making 2001 the worst year since at least 1969.


Black Blade: As I have been saying - it will get much worse. Corporate earnings are nearly nonexistent. Be very selective with investments, get out of debt, get a good supply of food, water, and basic necessities, get PM portfolio insurance, and hang on for the ride. In short - hope for the best and prepare for the worst! It is going to get very ugly on Wall Street, and that carries over to Main Street. We live in both "Interesting and Grim Times"
BR549
(10/06/2001; 10:38:40 MDT - Msg ID: 63049)
Paperless banking system and money broker regulations coming
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,35805,00.html"WASHINGTON � Settling misgivings over civil liberties with a compromise that could become part of President Bush's anti-terror package, senators pushed closer to a vote on a measure that would expand the government's power to choke off money flows to terrorist networks.

"Recommended unanimously Thursday by the Senate Banking Committee and sent to the full Senate, the bill is intended to fight money laundering around the world, thwart the financing of terrorism and protect the U.S. banking system from illicit money.

The bill would aid federal authorities' ability to monitor money brokers in the United States who are part of the ancient, nearly paperless banking system operating throughout south Asia and east Africa known as "hawala," or "in trust" in Hindi, India's national language.

The Al Qaeda network of Usama bin Laden, prime suspect in last month's attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, is believed to move money through the hawala system.

Money is deposited with a broker in one place and recipients get a code or token that lets them collect the same amount somewhere else, usually from a small merchant belonging to the same clan. "

Things are different in world economics since 911 and they will never be the same. The economic war being waged by the US Congress and the free world with impending legislation has real long term implications to the future of values and transfers of cash, gold, and any other unrestricted flow of assets between entities.


My opinion about worthwhile topics for this site:
Gold
Silver
PM's
Mining as it relates to supply and demand
The Federal Reserve
Futures and spot price trends
CNBC and other equities media advocates
The "Bonepile"
The World Economies/dollar/Euro's/related Politics
How the world has changed since 911
Economics-Keynesian, Austrian, Milton F., et al
Inflation/Deflation debates
Oil/Energy
Paper/fiat vs. value based currencies
And any topic and/or LINK that Black Blade, Netking, Site Steward and other great researchers would like for me to read about. I get more news here than anywhere and I am confident that others do also.

If we want to limit on site debate between those with contrasting ideas, then I am fine with that. If we want to limit the attempts at humor, fun picking at ideas, and other suggestions, then I will certainly go along. I left one site because of some self appointed "thought police" posters (not hosters).

IMHO however, gold is not in an economic vacuum and the future POG and benefit to the collection of physical gold has everything to do with structure of the new economic war now raging around the world.

FWIW,

BR549
Black Blade
(10/06/2001; 10:51:05 MDT - Msg ID: 63050)
U.S. firms' Sept layoff plans up 77 pct-Challenger
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/011004/nat000320_2.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK, Oct 4 (Reuters) - The number of layoff announcements by U.S. companies rose to its highest monthly level this year in September compared with the previous month, signaling the recent attacks on the United States may have thwarted the possibility of a near-term recovery for the flagging U.S. economy, a new report said on Thursday. "September is the largest job-cut month so far in 2001,'' the report said.

Announced job cuts totaled 248,332 in September, up 77 percent from August when companies announced 140,019 layoffs, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said. The number layoff announcements in September is also more than four times greater than during the same month last year.


Black Blade: This is only the tip of the iceberg. Many more nonessential "Bones" will be cast upon the ever-growing "Bone Pile." Cheap PM insurance is still available while many individuals decide to "sit this one out." With the very likely POG suppression that makes Gold a screaming buy. All of us may need "Golden Lifeboats" before this Recession even come close to a so-called "bottom." Also prepare as you would if you knew that you were likely to be laid off for a year or longer and as if a natural disaster hit at the same time. Hiding ones head in the sand just doesn't work. This Recession is far from coming to an end. In a word - "GRIM"
CoBra(too)
(10/06/2001; 11:29:47 MDT - Msg ID: 63051)
@ BB - Layoffs is not a purely American Phenomenon,
as you know.
Though, the EU is sending signals as to its tough stance vs. governement intervention to aid ailing industries - even after the 911 disaster -, and maybe they're right, since the plight of Swiss Air and its 50% held KLM were already in sight before the tragedy.

Anyway, Europe's bone pile is growing in style and won't be far behind the US. So much for the immunity of the economy of a veritable new trade entity - so, lets wait for their (our)"real" money to escalate, or is it inflate vis a vis the real money - gold "metal", the only real "estate" in town! - cb2

sourdough
(10/06/2001; 12:17:53 MDT - Msg ID: 63052)
ANTI-HEDGE FUND
Question: How many ounces of gold would we be talking about if producers had funds available to buy back all their forward sales,etc.? (producers that wanted to)
How many small producers would take advantage of access to this capital?
Would these buybacks force the price over the "magic number" ?
Is there a gold fund who lends producers dollars for this specific purpose, collateralized buy gold production, with arrangement for selling into spot market at stated minimum prices with company/fund sharing in profit?
Unfortunate that the WGC does not see fit to use that 200 mill for fund seed capital.
I would be interested in investing in a "fund" like that.
R Powell
(10/06/2001; 13:05:08 MDT - Msg ID: 63053)
Silver
There has been a great deal of talk lately about physical shortages of silver in the small market of coins and 100 oz bars. Many are discussing this next door (at G-E)and some have decided that the shortage is causing problems with availability to supply local dealers.
I also remember some talk of a proposal to mint a limited number of gold and unlimited number of silver coins to enhanse the renewed patriotic spirit that was awakened after the events of 9/11. I've also read of the possibility of another printing of the buffalo nickel design silver coin which sold out almost before we knew of their availability.
I'm sorry that I have no sourses or links to confirm any of this. Can anyone help?
Also, this has my interest as I believe the mints recieved the last of the government's silver (13 Moz) last Spring. Coin production is a small part of total useage but when/if word leaks out that Congress has asked for commemmorative coins and the mints have no supply to make them, well, we know what rumors, whether true or not, do to thinly traded markets.
Rich
Old Yeller
(10/06/2001; 13:16:31 MDT - Msg ID: 63054)
Be wary of the intentions of the men in the white hats.

Yessiree,here come the good guys.Objective;choke off the terrorists' funding and watch them whither away.

Are there ulterior motives?Let's ask someone who's opinions hold great weight in these here parts,Mr.ORO.

"The aim of the OECD and the FATF has always been to allow seizure of accounts on political and bureaucratic whim in order to allow governments the power to punish critics without trial and in order to allow politicians and civil servants to extract protection money from the wealthy,big and small,by threatening the "freezing" of assets.

Don't think for a second that the financial dealings of terrorists would in any way be affected by these "asset freezings"and don't expect the assets frozen already to be anything but loosely related to these groups."

Hmmm,that doesn't sound too promising.Also,one should consider the US need for over 1 billion$ a day to balance the current account.Draconian seizures and other interferences in the much ballyhooed US free market model may lead to difficulties in meeting funding requirements in a government sanctioned low interest rate environment.
Netking
(10/06/2001; 13:30:39 MDT - Msg ID: 63055)
"THE WAR ECONOMY" - James K. Galbraith
http://www.levy.org/docs/pn/01-8.htmlGalbraith states his case in this essay as to where we may be headed & what is needed; - Netking

Snippets:
" . . . concept of "stimulus" should be discarded in favor of the larger objective of economic stabilization-a sustained effort commensurate with the crisis as it unfolds. Godley and Izurieta estimated before the crisis that to keep unemployment stable in the face of a reversion to zero (instead of negative) saving and no increase in exports, an increase in federal budget deficits to 6 percent of GDP-about $600 billion-would be needed. This vast sum could be more than is actually required; dollar depreciation, especially, eases the tradeoff. But by any standard, measures so far in view are too small . . . "

"Cautious men are in charge of the economy at the moment, but this attitude can only bring disaster. There no longer is any danger of overdoing fiscal policy; demand-pull inflation is not even a remote threat. The danger, at the moment, is collapse. To avert this, an initial program could be up to three times as large as what has been so far proposed. . . "

"Lower interest rates worldwide-beginning on September 17-have so far staved off a major fall in the dollar. But that situation could change, particularly if the brutality of actual hostilities or the outbreak of famine in Afghanistan or a similar calamity leads to a global shift of opinion against the United States. Oil and gas prices will follow demand downward in the short run and the recession will cut imports, improving the current account so long as exports do not continue to slump. But uncertainty over the war aims of the administration is likely to curtail activity worldwide and so add falling exports to our miseries; moreover, oil supplies could be disrupted in a wider war, and imports will rise again if large-scale Keynesian policies take hold. . . "

". . .Any of these scenarios could destabilize the dollar, causing a decline far greater than the 20 to 25 percent that is probably needed for current account adjustment. There are vast public and private dollar holdings overseas-all substantially contingent on confidence that other actors will hold on to their holdings. In this crisis, they may not stand firm; a run on the dollar cannot be ruled out. This is the classic scourge of war efforts and "populist" expansions. Unless prevented, the natural reaction of the Federal Reserve would be to raise interest rates, thereby deepening the slump. An economy with high unemployment and high inflation is a very possible, even likely, result in this case. . . "
sourdough
(10/06/2001; 15:06:32 MDT - Msg ID: 63056)
U.S "looking for ideas to spur economy
"But he said he is "looking for ideas" from the other G7 officials � including Mr. Martin and Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge � to get the global economy growing at annual rate of 3 per cent again, instead of the current 2-per-cent pace."

Okay, Martin and Dodge,
how about stop selling CDN GOLD and start buying!
Spur the CDN economy with mining exploration and production.
Usul
(10/06/2001; 15:52:52 MDT - Msg ID: 63057)
Gold Recaptures 'Safe Haven' Role
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/011006/business_bizgold_dc_1.html"Gold appears to have recaptured its historic role as a safe haven for investors, who are suffering sharp drops in their stock portfolios and are wary of what the future holds after last month's deadly attacks..."
Galearis
(10/06/2001; 16:05:33 MDT - Msg ID: 63058)
@ sourdough
Do I detect (another) disgruntled Canuck?Dodge has an interesting problem to contend with. Fundamentally the CAN$ is relatively (to the USD) better asset backed (in a per capita sense) in that Canada has both gold (in the ground), is well endowed with primary resources (timber and other raw materials), has a competitive manufacturing sector and the most educated population (human resource) in North America. This is mitigated by the unfortunate necessity of having (80%) of our exports going to the US. So we are both a victim and winner during the past bloom. The price we pay being is the US backed dollar camp attacking our currency to force forward sales of gold. For this one needs a two-faced central bank that realizes that a weaker US$currency is necessary to maintain exports.

The bank of Canada will not be buying gold...yet. It would harden our currency and damage trade. The Bank of Canada is one of the players that regulates the "rise" of our currency and like Japan takes steps to keep things nicely undervalued. The real question is at what exchange value will Mr. Dodge determin to be too low as we chase the collapsing US$ down in the very near future?

Once we stop trying to keep under the dollar, what then? Who do we trade with? (And what will our quasi-asset backed paper be worth then when our economy settles into a stagflation environment.)It will be then (eventually) that we will likely see the CAN government forcing Canadian mines to sell only to the central banks(perhaps at COMEX paper spot values) as fiat currencies in general decline in popularity. (This has been done in the nineteen fifties and early sixties when inflation was making demands on the fixed gold price and Diefenbaker subsidized gold miners to keep them in business - and soon floated our dollar. But by then we had REALLY impressive CB gold reserves and a REAL hard currency.) THe modern model will (may) be that of the EURO and Canada plays catch up and forces the mines to sell to the Bank of Canada.

The US will not be able to play this game nearly as efficiently.

But I digressed there a little. Our emptying of CB gold began in earnest, however, under Mulroney. The present government is fiscally of the same colour as the Conservative one. Only more frugal, of course - and a tad less prone to clumsy scandals. But we continue to actively weaken our currency by selling virtually all our CB gold reserves. This was intentional to maintain our trade.

For our politicians the question is, how low for the CAN$ before it becomes a political problem for the government?
The other parties farther to the right do not seem to understand any of this. Even Joe Clark, who as you know (but most on this forum probably don't) used to be Prime Minister way back then, is raising Cain about our lowering dollar. Perhaps he is just being disingenous. Day, of course, really doesn't have a clue.

So that's the simplest way of explaining why "we" too hate gold and why Dodge won't harden up the CAN$.

Happy Thanksgiving weekend to fellow Canadian gold stiffs out there.

G.

AllanC
(10/06/2001; 16:27:47 MDT - Msg ID: 63059)
One last time
Gandalf and Anduril: I will make it my last post on the subject, but realize the resolution of this will impact indirectly on the price of gold, and for once in his life, BR549 is right, gold does not operate in a vacuum. But at the same time I do not wish to be too overbearing on this subject as this is a gold related forum. So please be more tolerant of what other people are posting.

BR549: You said:"Since you are very astute in debating with yourself and responsing to your own posts, then kindly ask yourself these questions and then attempt to answer:

Are there any circumstances in which you would advocate taking any economic and/or military actions to defeat international terrorism? Is so, what would those actions specifically consist of? How would you change things? What is your solution to terrorism?"

I put forward my solution. Yes you can target terrorists using force, when and if the terrorists can be isolated and identified. We have police units and special forces to do that on a case by case basis. But that dos not call for a broad military intervention in another sovereign country.

As for the financial war, Old Yeller and I already covered that topic with you. It is inherently undoable and unfair. There are many Muslim charitable organizations that do good things. Would you also seize their assets based on a suspicion? We have means of tracing and seizing specific funds at our disposal and that should be the extent of it.

And I supported the action in Iraq, although I didn't approve of the attack on the civilian infrastructure. As for the aftermath, that was poor strategic planning IMHO

Now over to you BR549, and you can have the last word.

AllanC
sourdough
(10/06/2001; 16:54:41 MDT - Msg ID: 63060)
REPLY:Galearis (10/6/01; 16:05:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 63058)
Thanks for the response, I understand the reasoning for "beggaring the currency".
What of Kline (Alberta), with more oil than Saudi Arabia, and costs coming down on there way to $10 bucks, they continue to run surplus.
He (smile) always looked like a guy who might be interested in a 5% gold portfolio.
(and a happy thanksgiving to you also)
Mr Gresham
(10/06/2001; 17:12:59 MDT - Msg ID: 63061)
Galearis: Mercantilism
The question of depreciating one's own currency has always seemed curious to me. Japan is doing it now, to keep up its export business. Japan's consumers have always gotten the short end of things. I guess we know just WHO runs Japan.

In fact, when we talk about currency warfare, rather than thinking of it as "our country vs theirs" maybe it is really always an _internal_ tug of war -- one favored group which controls the reins of monetary policy to its own benefit. As we know with political influence peddling, the concentrated powers (great wealth in a few hands) can make policy over the wishes of the many, each of whom gets trimmed a few thousand bucks, unknownst to themselves, and who would not likely march on the Fed/Treasury even if they understood.

Didn't Adam Smith write The Wealth of Nations partly in response to the heavily mercantilist policies of the British regime, which favored such as the East India Company over others at home? So, "free market capitalist economics" is bent ever and always by political influences wherever men, through government institutions, can work their will over others in their conjoined lives of getting and spending.
Black Blade
(10/06/2001; 18:08:11 MDT - Msg ID: 63062)
Afghanistan - Know Your Enemy!

There has been a lot of talk about what should be done and what should not be done with regard to Afghanistan and the Afghani people. Perhaps we should examine the country, people and culture first. The main concern is with the ruling Taliban and the Al-Qaeda Cult headed by Osama Bin Laden.

Afghanis have an average annual per capita income of about $200.00 US. They effectively live in the Bronze Age with virtually no modern amenities. The only real economic product in Afghanistan is the opium poppy. Most of the opium produced is exported to Europe. Virtually all Afghanis are Muslim and those who do not practice the religion are arrested and severely punished by the Taliban enforcers. The religion is the culture and the Government. There is no separation between church and state. That brings us to the real question - Who are the Taliban?

To answer that question we must first start by explaining that there are many Muslim sects just as there are many Christian sects, Buddhist sects, Jewish sects, etc. Most Muslims (including those in Afghanistan) are appalled by the actions of the 9-11 terrorists. But I digress. In Afghanistan nearly 84 percent of the populations belong to some variation of the Sunni Moslem Sect, which has adapted the Koran to allow for modern amenities and modern lifestyle. Generally they are quite tolerant of western ideas and culture. The remaining 16 percent belong to some variation of the Shiite Sect, and among them we find the Al-Qaeda Cult and the Taliban Cult that are generally disavowed by many Shiites. However, Shiites are fundamentalists who generally take a hard line against modern amenities and lifestyle. It is among the Shiites where we find the terrorists and Cultists like the Al-Qaeda and Taliban.

The Taliban seized power in 1997 when they ousted a coalition of freedom fighters who waxed the mighty Soviet occupiers. This resulted in over 3 million Sunni refugees. The Taliban do not represent the Afghani people and in effect have virtually no popular support. In fact the people despise them. They have prevented Islam to the point that they tolerate engage in theft, murder and even rape by Taliban members. Most Afghanis would support US involvement to rid them of the Taliban.

The totalitarian regime has worsened conditions for women. Women used to have the right to own property, show their hands, feet and faces, go into public alone, etc. There was even discussion of giving women the right to vote and hold political office. Under the Taliban Cult, that has changed. Women are property, they can not leave home alone, must be covered from head to toe, always walk behind their husbands, never speak above a whisper, and are not allowed to be educated. Female genital mutilation (clitoridectomy) is widely practiced under the Taliban as sexual pleasure for women is forbidden.

A ground war in Afghanistan is not advisable, as the Afghanis have perfected killing and torture to an art. The English and Soviets learned the hard way. The terrain affords many hiding places and excellent opportunity for ambush. Unless Americans are ready to see many US soldiers coming home in boxes, they had better understand the fanaticism that drives these Cultists and how to fight a guerrilla war in tough terrain. Other methods may be more advisable such as arming the opposition with air support, battlefield tactical nukes, or chemical and biotoxin dispersal in the Hindu Kush. It must require no meddling by the buffoons in the House and Senate, and giving absolute control to the military professionals with orders of nothing less than extermination. If not - we lose. So the question to the American public is - is this acceptable? Nothing less will do.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(10/06/2001; 18:29:24 MDT - Msg ID: 63063)
Memo to Berkshire Hathaway Managers
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/manager.html
Snippit:

For my part, I'll keep looking for sensible acquisitions and continue to manage our resources so that Berkshire remains a financial Rock of Gibraltar. I'm sure we are in a recession, probably a relatively deep and extended one, but they are part of business life and we are prepared.

In short, you do the managing and I'll do the worrying. That's a division of labor that's worked for us in the past, and it will continue to work well in the future.

Black Blade: From the Oracle's own mouth - "I'm sure we are in a recession, probably a relatively deep and extended one, �" I concur, though old Warren was a bit late to the party here. We live in "Interesting and Grim Times" PM protection is most definitely in order!
Mr Gresham
(10/06/2001; 18:29:53 MDT - Msg ID: 63064)
Mr Moto alert on activities of Mr Fixit (Peter Fisher)
http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-perl/bbs.pl?read=188950Seems they needed to rush some 10 year Treasuries into "the trade" because of a dangerous level of "fails" (did we cover this one already, Randy?)
Black Blade
(10/06/2001; 18:40:01 MDT - Msg ID: 63065)
Oil mop-up starts after Alaskan pipe is punctured
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/011006/n06301752_1.html
Snippit:

ANCHORAGE, Alaska, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Crews scrambled on Friday to mop up the Second-largest oil spill from the trans-Alaska pipeline after a rifle shot nearly halted about one-fifth of U.S. domestic production, officials said. The first piercing of the 24-year-old pipeline by a bullet forced the operator on Thursday to turn off the flow of 1 million barrels (42 million gallons) a day through the 800-mile-long (1,300-km) pipeline, which runs from Prudhoe Bay in the Arctic to the Prince William Sound port of Valdez in the south.

Black Blade: Let's see here - One inebriated Elmer Fudd with a high-powered rifle stops the flow of oil. Think of what a sober terrorist with a little imagination could do.
site steward
(10/06/2001; 19:02:24 MDT - Msg ID: 63066)
We sure did, Mr Gresham
Starting on Thursday, I believe it was. Then there was some follow-up on Friday to elaborate on an issue raised by Spartacus. Just trying to keep our readers here one step ahead of the investing herd.

site steward (10/4/01; 11:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 62920)
AND
site steward (10/5/01; 14:09:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 63002)
The Invisible Hand
(10/06/2001; 20:07:55 MDT - Msg ID: 63067)
Keynes, G7, Britain, euro and 911
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1580000/1580804.stm
Mr Gresham,

You are asking in msg#: 63045 whether I found things suggest or corroborate what FOA is saying, i.e. that Europe is putting the cap on the post-Sept. 11 gold spike.

I am not aware that FOA said that Europe is putting the cap on the post-Sept. 11 gold spike. I can however give you two clippings which seem to go in the direction of A/FOA.

First from this morning (yes, it's Sunday morning here in South-East Asia)'s David Smith's Economic Outlook column in the London Sunday Times. I will not introduce it, but will let it speak for itself:

" WHY did he do it? Why, at a time when everybody was concerned with other matters, did Tony Blair suddenly put euro entry back on the political agenda last week? And should we now be preparing for an early referendum?
" The post-September 11 reality means that "round the world, nations are instinctively drawing together", according to the prime minister. Therefore, we should think more seriously about drawing together with our European partners and join the euro.
" Taken to its logical conclusion, the argument appears to be that the terrorists - who he insists will not achieve anything - have made the argument for joining the single currency more compelling. I would not, of course, accuse the prime minister of anything so crass. " (http://www.sunday-times.co.uk, then go the business section)


Then from an article from last Friday on the BBC (URL in the URL box) teaching me that there's a G7 meeting going on in Washington. The article teaches me also that socialists like Schroeder and Fabius are REJECTING Keynesianism:

" Economists, including those at the World Bank and IMF, are concerned that the rules that govern spending in the eurozone are too strict.
" "I am sure that President Bush and other Americans understand that no matter how big a stimulus we will have in the United States it will be less successful if the Europeans do not play along," commented Christian Weller of the Economic Policy Institute.

" European caution

" However, leaders of Europe's biggest economy, Germany, have expressed reluctance to take part in any joint stimulus package.
" Hans Eichel, Germany's finance minister, said that "generally, such programmes do not bring much," and the German Chancellor, Gerhard Schroeder, has repeated his backing for the growth and stability pact, which obliges member countries to bring their budgets into balance or surplus in the medium term.
" And French finance minister Laurent Fabius also insisted that the eurozone countries would be unwise to abandon the tough rules that have kept inflation and interest rates low.
" "It wouldn't be reasonable or efficient to change the stability pact... it will have a negative effect on our economies, particularly long-term interest rates," he said. �"

Looks like the European Socialists (Blair, Schroeder and Fabius) are not the Hard Money Socialists which FOA described in message 112 of the Gold Trail, but that they are the people (Statesmen?) who are preparing the Trail.
USAGOLD
(10/06/2001; 21:59:33 MDT - Msg ID: 63068)
On Fear, Gas Masks and Sally Quinn. . . . .
Cavan Man asks "What are you thinking?"

Well, I'm thinking many things, my good friend. Seems I've gone into some kind of hyper-gear with what's going on here (in the U.S.) and around the globe in the wake of 911, but I'll just talk about one thing that I think others here and elsewhere in the gold internet have been either overly gracious in side-stepping, or perhaps too preoccupied with events to address. That is, the fear running rampant in certain quarters -- including among the elite and socially well-connected in Washington and New York and elsewhere across this increasingly troubled land. Fear connected to both further terrorist attacks and the potential for a collapsing economy. Fear that escapes no one -- no matter what position you occupy on the social and/or economic ladder.

I had the opportunity to see Sally Quinn interviewed on CNN about the threat of biological attack and infectious disease. I was astonished to hear her say that she and her friends were in the midst of survival style preparations. Ms. Quinn is formerly a press wonk herself and the wife of ex-Washington Post editor Ben Bradlee. She is generally considered the belle dame of Washington around whom the Washington social swirl swirls. She did not say it, but it was completely evident that this group of well-connected, wealthy and personally successful people had begun to consider that something "bad" could actually happen to them. As she registered her concerns, I said to myself: "You know, this sounds awfully familiar -- where have I heard that tone of voice, the determination, the allusion to personal and family peril?" It took about ten seconds for me to realize that this familiarity could be tracked to a typical day at Centennial Preicous Metals talking to people from all walks of life in the process of buying gold. I thought to myself, "You know what she is experiencing is something that gold advocates have been living with for a very long time -- fear. Fear that someone could pull the rug. That things could get bad; very bad. And that government was not really equipped, or capable, or dealing with it." Despite my own deep concerns and empathy for what she was talking about, I couldn't help a wan smile of recognition. The potentiality that Sally Quinn was developing a philosophy that has led others to gold ownership was a bit more than I could acknowledge without a feeling of bitter/sweet satisfaction.

What astonishes me is how people like Sally Quinn are suddenly beginning to realize now that something "bad" actually could happen to Americans -- to themselves. That if someone wants to kill any one of us, or any group of us, that they have ample weaponry and opportunity. The danger is present. And it is real. What's more, we can only hope and pray that the government will be able to do something about it. One of things Sally Quinn made a point of was how irritated she was that the government was not in any way prepared for the multitude of threats she was feeling that she personally had to begin dealing with -- most especially germ warfare. In fact, she had gone out and purchased antibiotics and gas masks for her family -- probably an act of futility, but at least she did "something." As an aside, I happened to see an interview of former Colorado senator (and friend of the firm), Gary Hart with respect to the commission he chaired some months ago on the terrorist threat. Usually unflappable, Hart made the point of saying that his commission's findings were essentially ignored by both the press and the Congress when presented earlier this year. No one believed that terrorism would actually surface on American shores. After studying the problem, he didn't see it that way. He felt it was something we should be very concerned about. No one was listening.

But back to Sally Quinn, she has taken matters into her own hands. Now, I ask all the fellow goldmeisters: "Where will the march of logic lead Sally Quinn?" We all know. We've been there. Done that. For gold advocates and owners, these dark thoughts are nothing new. We've lived them for any number of years. I can remember the subject of anthrax coming up here years ago. The general terrorist threat has come up on several occasions. And then there's the various threats to our economic and financial well-being -- daily fare around here. As we revisit our own ghosts of crises past, for many of us the current mood in its intensity as it pervades the TV screens might seem disturbing but hauntingly familiar. To many of us, the threat is no more real now than it was when it was ephemeral -- an intellectual consideration. We've always understood that something bad could happen to America, to its economy, to its people. For us, the perplexing aspect of this whole thing is why did it take the Twin Towers going down for the rest of America to understand it? Perhaps if the level of concern would have been raised long ago (or if the Hart-Rudman Commission had been taken seriously in the proper quarters), none of this would have happened. In some ways fear can be a good thing -- it is associated with the basic survival instinct. I can be used to our advantage, force us to plan, make us better stewards of whatever wealth we've gained . . . and perhaps avoid evil. Suddenly, our view point -- the reasons we do the things we do -- for better or worse, has become a national pre-occupation.

I have said many times in private conversation that many (not all) Americans have lived a child-like existence believing that nothing bad could ever happen to them -- that the Government or their Employer or God or Pure Good Luck would always take care of them come hell or high water. That they were special and bad things happened to other people, not "us." Well, down went the NASDAQ and most of the rest of the markets. Then went the dreams of an economy that would rise forever. Then the twin towers. That innocence, as I said the week of the terrible event, is lost and probably gone forever. . . What the Sally Quinns of the world are doing is taking matters into their own hands -- perhaps for the first time in their lives, just as gold owners did for Y2K and just as gold owners are doing now, and, by the way, have always done. For the Sally Quinns of the world, this must be the defining moment of their lives -- at least it seems so -- and it is interesting that it co-incides with the end of Wall Street's bull market. The changes in consumer behavior which now dominate the nation's financial pages are not so much traced to a psychological depression brought on by the event, but by caution. And that "caution" rightly has been brought on by a "recognition" that the world can indeed be a dangerous place. The question becomes "What do we do now?" That is the question each of us as individuals will deal with in our own way over the weeks and months to come. And perhaps this Forum can play a role in helping all of us deal with this situation. As a nation, we will move forward; we will deal with this threat and I believe stamp it out; but we will never believe again that we are immune to the negative event -- man made or driven by the stars -- political, economic, or financial. When Sally Quinn buys a gas mask, it signals that a gold purchase might not be far behind. And for those reading this Forum that is a quantum change worth noting.
uponroof
(10/06/2001; 22:26:37 MDT - Msg ID: 63069)
CB or IMF announcment coming?
http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/sdr.htm

Bombshell from the IMF

Announcement Around the Corner?


Over the last few years, gold investors have gotten used to getting slammed with announcements to force down the gold price. Right about the time you are thinking "A few more bucks and I will break even". Of course it was not to be as the "dreaded announcement" slips out and slam bam, the price of gold goes back in the toilet. You the investor are left lying on the ground having sustained another body slam.

Those that have been around awhile are quite familiar with the routine. Greenspan will say something like "Inflation is being over stated by 1%." That one was good for an immediate lopping of five bucks off the gold price. The more recent ones are the Bank of England announcements of gold auctions, Swiss sales, Kuwait leasing, Paraguay sales, IMF sales and so on. Just when you least expect it and are thinking that this one is in the bag, prepare, the body slam is coming.

It's up periscope time to look around and see where the next dirty trick announcement will come from. The gold price is holding firm and smacking the ceiling at $292 per ounce, the line in the sand that puts the CB crowd in red alert territory.

The golden years of producer hedging are over. Potential supplies for sale are dwindling. What to do? Well, they can sell the ounces that are returned or delivered into hedges by the miners. Perhaps this was not the original intent behind the gold leasing when they entered into the transaction. Now they are left with little choice.

Organizations like the BIS and the BOE have gold on "deposit" by other central bankers. This means that the gold has been loaned out to other parties in exchange for interest. They are now liable for the return of the gold and thus have a lot at stake. In some instances, the gold goes to a bullion bank and then to a miner. There are now three parties between the original CB that put the gold on deposit and getting the gold back.

The Bank of England for instance has to look out not only for the health of the bullion bank, but the miner as well. Their customer's gold is at risk here!

You know that they are going to do something. They are going to pull out the ace form the sleeve and deploy it with much fanfare and repeated announcements. What will it be? What have we overlooked this time? This is where the IMF will likely come into play.

In September of 1997, the Board of Governors of the IMF voted in a doubling of SDR allocations to 42.87 billion with the approval of the Fourth Amendment to the Articles of Agreement of the IMF. The proposal will become effective when three fifths of the IMF membership (110 members) having 85 percent of the total voting power have accepted it. As of mid-August, 2001, 109 members having 72.18 percent of the total voting power had accepted the proposed amendment. Thus, approval by the United States, which holds 17.16 percent of the voting power, would put the amendment into effect.

For whatever reason, the United States and a likely list of cronies have been holding up the Forth Amendment for the last four years. We can only speculate on the reasons for doing so, but it is likely somehow tied to the strong dollar policy of recent years. In any event, it is now hinging on the stroke of the pen by the United States.

In 1969 the IMF created the SDR, an artificial currency unit defined as a basket of national currencies. The SDR is used as an international reserve asset, to supplement members' existing reserve assets (official holdings of gold, foreign exchange, and reserve positions in the IMF).
The likely scenario would be that the US approves the SDR allocations along with the announcement that CB's will be replacing outdated gold reserve assets with the SDR's

The current conversion of SDR to USD is $1.2827, thus the new number of allocations created will be 21.43 billion SDR or 27.59 billion USD. That converted to gold equates to 95,141,810 oz at $290. That's a potential of 2,959 metric tonnes.

Whether or not this is actually done on any large scale is not as significant as the temporary psychological impact of such an announcement.

Any such announcements forthcoming from the CB's or IMF should be taken as a last opportunity to buy on the cheap, as in the current environment, the effects will be only temporary in the face of accelerated demand.
*********************************************

So.... are we to expect a papered over 290 POG via adjusted SDRs? We know they're up to 'something'......and you can be sure that 'something' will be implemented to coincide with the sure to come 300+POG.
Netking
(10/06/2001; 22:40:10 MDT - Msg ID: 63070)
Sir's Rich & Galearis - Silver
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/update.htmSir Rich.(63053)You post ". . . I've also read of the possibility of another printing of the buffalo nickel design silver coin which sold out almost before we knew of their availability.I'm sorry that I have no sourses or links to confirm any of this. Can anyone help?"

Netking's reply > Rich, Check out my post #62871 from a couple of days ago & read the various posted link ref's . . it will have most of the answers with regards to your questions on issues this year & next. Also info there re: US Mint inventory.
------------------------------------------------------------
Sir Galearis & Ag bugs(63047) Yes I was quite impressed by Jim's article also and agree with your comment re: price since 9-11.

Another thing that really impressed me that nobody has mentioned yet was where Jim said:

"Just last month someone tried to buy 10 million ounces and it pushed the price up 25 cents an ounce. When the hive wakes up to this fact the price is headed for a moon shot(end quote)"

This is B I G, and it means means the game is in effect over for "Mr Short" . . . game, set & match! When individual investors are starting to come forward to buy(or try and buy) 2% of known remaining world Ag supply in a single transaction, it is over, it's finished man!
Netking
(10/07/2001; 00:37:24 MDT - Msg ID: 63071)
Saudi Arabia cont. (Qatar and Oman now to be replacement U.S. bases)
http://www.menewsline.com/stories/2001/october/10_07_2.html'Middle East News Line' reports that the United States is examining the prospect that Oman or Qatar will be used as a base for any attack on Saudi billionaire fugitive Osama Bin Laden.

When one considers the strategic importance of this country & it's assets to the USA & the West, any developments are worthy of note, and those in recent days will have (Osama bin Laden aside)the West a little worried.

Gulf defense sources said the U.S. review of Qatar and Oman comes after Washington has dropped efforts to make Saudi Arabia a launching pad for an attack on Bin Laden, a Saudi national. The sources said Riyad has refused to allow the kingdom to be used for any attack on Bin Laden or the Afghan ruling Taliban faction. Instead, the sources said, Saudi Arabia has allowed what they termed was limited use of a key (state of the art)air force base, 'Prince Sultan'. They said the terms of the use remain "vague" . . . "

Saudi Arabia has turned more insistent that it would not supply help for any U.S. attack against Arabs or Muslims. Earlier, U.S. officials reported an agreement with Riyad for the use of the Prince Sultan air base. "This matter wasn't a part of discussion between the two sides," Saudi Defense Minister Prince Sultan Bin Abdul Aziz said after meeting Rumsfeld in the last few days . . .
------------------------------------------------------------
*** Meanwhile Debka Intelligence updates on the current Saudi situation and merges in with the above information from M.E.Newsline.(Reliable inside information sources or propaganda, your choice):

"King Fahd Bin Abdul Aziz returned home from his enforced exile in Geneva last Thursday, September 27, mending the rift in the Saudi royal house by lining up with his half-brother, Crown Prince Abdullah's refusal to grant Washington the use of military bases for attacking any Muslim power. By giving in, the king may have saved the royal regime from being torn apart on the issue. But he put paid to the moderate Arab support the United States had hoped would be ranged behind its war on terror.

The crisis brought US defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld hurrying over to Riyadh � to no avail.(The Bush administration responded to this major blow to its war effort by turning to Moscow and the former Soviet Central Asian republics, as DEBKA file revealed last week.)So dense was the cloud of secrecy the princes imposed over the feud that the king's departure for Geneva with all his family and a vast entourage of princes of senior rank, some of them ministers, took place unannounced on September 19 - as revealed in DEBKAfile on September 22.

Before this crisis, the Americans took it for granted that the Prince Sultan air base near Riyadh was available as their command and control center for running their anti-terror war in the region. They had the king's consent. His abrupt departure left Abdullah, who opposed the king on the issue, calling the shots. Defense Minister Prince Sultan Bin Abdul Aziz, the king's full brother and third in the royal hierarchy, tried to mediate the dispute. According to DEBKAfile's sources, he pointed warningly to the flourishing alliance between Washington and Moscow, highlighted by Russia's permission to grant the Americans the use of military bases in the former Soviet Muslim republics of Central Asia as staging posts for their offensive against the Taliban and bin Laden. The Saudi bases had therefore been quickly replaced and its clout in Washington diminished.

But Crown Prince Abdullah, who effectively runs the kingdom because of Fahd's poor health, stood firm. In the end he prevailed. Now, the Saudi royal house is reunited around a five-year old religious edict, or fatwa, recycled by the Saudi Grand Mufti Abdullah Aziz Bin Abdullah, at the Crown Prince's request.

DEBKAfile's Saudi experts explain how this edict, helped by acrobatic exegesis, was turned into a prohibition against Saudi bases serving the US military operation against Afghanistan or any other Muslim power, the Taliban and Iraq implicitly included.

*** For the first time, Saudi-US collaboration in the war against terrorism is forbidden on religious grounds. The key fatwa specifically forbids any Muslim to accept assistance from a non-Muslim authority in the conduct of investigations into security occurrences involving Muslims. Since the Saudis on religious grounds are not allowed to share intelligence on bin Laden and the Taliban with the non-Muslim United States, neither may Riyadh accept US evidence of his complicity in the attacks on the United States. Since such evidence is unacceptable, so too is any military action stemming from it.

But the Saudi rationale is not purely religious. Members of the government, including foreign minister Saud Al-Faisal and army chiefs, argued that once the Americans were caught up on two military fronts, they would focus on Afghanistan at the expense of the anti-Iraq front, leaving Saudi Arabia exposed to punishment at Saddam's hands.

On the whole, the Saudis do not regard the Taliban in the same light as the Americans. According to DEBKAfile's Saudi experts, the Afghan ruling party are seen as the only Sunni military force capable of holding the Iranian-backed Shi�ite Hizbollah militants in check. As such, they deserve Saudi backing and their alliance with Bin Laden and Al Quaeda, who oppose the Saudi royal family, is deemed a deviation, not a crime. According to Saudi calculations, this deviation can be corrected by the Taliban handing the master terrorist over to Saudi Arabia or holding his operation down to directives from Riyadh.

To sacrifice their Taliban asset for the sake of eradicating bin Laden, as the Americans demand, is an unacceptable option for Riyadh. Defense secretary Rumsfeld's whirlwind tour also took him to Cairo in an effort to swing the largest Arab country round to support for America's military operation. DEBKAfile's Cairo sources report he had just received the bad news of a major anti-US upheaval among the senior ranks of President Hosni Mubarak's advisers. His most markedly pro-American aides, foreign minister Ahmed Maher and special adviser Osama al-Baz, were pushed down the totem pole, while former foreign minister and current Arab League secretary the pan-Arab Amr Moussa was elevated over their heads.

Immediately after the September 11 attacks in the United States, Moussa formulated three conditions that effectively blocked off Arab League support for the American campaign:
No Arab nation may attack - or threaten to attack - any other Arab or Muslim state. Any action against terrorists must be preceded by a precise definition of the term terrorism and its practical manifestations. The Arab world must follow its own interests, which are not necessarily identical to those of the United States.

In Washington, the Saudi fatwa and Amr Mousa's three conditions sounded the death knell for America's hopes of Arab support in its war against Afghanistan and bin Laden. View Yesterday's Discussion.

BR549
(10/07/2001; 00:38:36 MDT - Msg ID: 63072)
If there is any doubt about hyper-inflation being on the way,
http://www.prudentbear.com/credit.htmlook at the Pike's Peak chart of M3 now.
Netking
(10/07/2001; 00:48:49 MDT - Msg ID: 63073)
Bomb blast kills in Saudi Arabia
http://www.cnn.com/2001/WORLD/meast/10/06/saudi.bombing/index.htmlMeanwhile CNN reported a remote controlled bomb exploded in a busy shopping area in the eastern Saudi Arabian city of Al Khobar, killing at least two people, officials said.

** An isolated act of terror or a subtle message from those wanting to influence ongoing air space & air base negotiations?
------------------------------------------------------------
I believe that this new week will be a good one for Gold. Buying opportunities at the ridiculously low price levels we've enjoyed will soon be a thing of the past yes.
- Netking
BR549
(10/07/2001; 01:28:21 MDT - Msg ID: 63074)
"This week, with little ceremony, President George W. Bush quietly brought to a close more than a decade of US economic policy orthodoxy. By signalling his support for lower taxes and higher public spending in the next year, he threw the US administration's weight behind the proposition that a temporary deficiency in aggregate demand should be met by a shift in government finances from surplus to deficit."
http://globalarchive.ft.com/globalarchive/article.html?id=011006001421&query=Keynes#docAnchor011006001421An interesting perspective from the European point of view at the Financial Times.

There is no question in my mind that the ghost of liberal economics and the politician's excuse for legitimizing vote buying has risen its ugly head in the form of the policies of John Maynard Keynes in the Bush Administration. The government welfare line for the airlines, displaced workers, to the tune of $60BB+++ in increased spending without an offsetting increase in Real GDP spells the end of trying to fight inflation. In contrast to the US, the rest of the world is not readily following along, at least in the short term, but they will. The new economic war on terrorism may dictate severe short term measures, but hyper-inflation caused by a "rocketic" rise in government spending, without any offset in productivity in any real sectors such as manufacturing, will produce deficit spending inflation that will erase any chance for real economic growth for years to come. The only real stimulus will be a real tax cut in capital gains instead of additional Federal spending, which Bush proposed on Friday.

The economic war caused by 911 heats up.

BR549
BR549
(10/07/2001; 02:15:48 MDT - Msg ID: 63075)
Last Word and gas masks
AllanC (msg#: 63059)---�Now over to you BR549, and you can have the last word."
OK, "last word." I don't know about you but I was just having some fun posting vack and forth with you. Now, sit down because you may hurt yourself, but I mostly agree with your last post, especially for those intolerant of others ideas. I do object however to your "one last time" phrase as I fully expect you to post on any of your disagreements with any of my "brilliant posts".

USAGOLD (msg#: 63068)�"On Fear, Gas Masks and Sally Quinn. . . . ."
What a great post. While being held "prisoner of war" in the computer business in DC for over seven years, I met many women like Sally who are irate because their government is not taking care of them in the manner that they expect and feel they need. FYI, we felt that the best gas masks when we bought were the ones manufactured in Israel for their military and citizens. If I can just find a "stinger" for those pesky crop dusters, then I'll have it made.

BR549
Old Yeller
(10/07/2001; 02:17:57 MDT - Msg ID: 63076)
Pointing fingers
http://www.the-privateer.com/front.html
At some of the less visible offenders.The ones in the white hats.
Black Blade
(10/07/2001; 02:29:41 MDT - Msg ID: 63077)
Natural gas producers fear short-term surplus, long-term shortage
http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?Section=OnlineArticles&ARTICLE_CATEGORY=TOPST&ARTICLE_ID=120887

Snippit:

NEW ORLEANS, Oct. 2 -- The US natural gas industry will be hammered by low commodity prices this winter because of an even worse industrial recession than the government will admit. But it faces serious supply constraints through 2007, said two independent executives. At the moment, the US gas market is oversupplied as a result of a 1 bcfd supply growth and 3 bcfd demand loss, said Mark Papa, chairman and CEO of EOG Resources Inc. "What we're in today is clearly the most severe industrial recession we've seen in the last 20 years," said Papa at the annual meeting of the International Association of Drilling Contractors (IADC) in New Orleans last week. "It is a lot more severe, in my opinion, than the government is letting on," he said. "If you look at total demand for gas in the US, 40% of the demand is in the industrial segment and that's where we get clobbered right now." "We weren't supplying that much more gas, and prices were falling anyway, due to lower demand from the industrial sector," he said.

With smaller discoveries and rapid production declines, Papa and Schiller said, the US gas market will be supply-constrained until a pipeline is built to bring gas from Alaska's North Slope to the Lower 48 states in about 2007. Until then, any new incremental supplies of gas will have to come from hydrocarbon basins in the Gulf of Mexico, South Texas, and western Canada. Production decline rates in virtually all of those areas are getting steeper every year because of new and imaginative well completion technology developed during the past decade that allows the industry to produce reserves quicker, said Papa. As a result, Schiller said, "The wells we're drilling today, are not going to be here 12 months from now." "We're not going to solve the problem on the supply side," Schiller said. "In the Gulf of Mexico, we're down to the 5 bcf prospects. We can no longer find wells with 25 bcf reserves that flat line at 40MMcfd after they're drilled. Everything we're drilling now is tight gas." He said the only long-term solution is to open new areas to exploration, such as government lands in the Rocky Mountains, the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska.


Black Blade: Very telling and "interesting" article. As has been posted here before, the current Recession was triggered by higher energy costs. Now prices have retraced somewhat resulting in a short-term natural gas glut due to the lost demand as the US economy slips into oblivion. This point has been hammered for well over a year here at the forum. Now like OPEC, natural gas production is being cut and is even rapidly declining as decline rates in natural gas fields accelerate and more and more rigs are shutdown. As stated in the article, many natural gas wells drilled today are smaller nonconventional wells that will be depleted within 12 months and stored natural gas will decline significantly when "injection season" ends. In order for the US economy to dig out of the abyss, much more abundant "Cheap Energy" will be required. That appears not likely to happen now. There are still several new natural gas fired power plants about to come online over the next several years. This Deep Recession will get much more severe and likely last a very long time. All this along with war on the horizon and the prospect of many more terrorist acts against western interests, Gold and Silver insurance is a must in times like these. Think about this as well - third quarter earnings start coming out soon and it is going to get ugly on Wall Street as earnings are nearly nonexistent. In a word - "GRIM"
Old Yeller
(10/07/2001; 02:56:41 MDT - Msg ID: 63078)
Edited from a post by ellix98 at another forum

"The real reasons for the attacks has always been western imperialism and insensitivity to the aspirations of humanity,when it does not suit vested interests.American and British interests,among others'support undemocratic systems whenever these same co-operate in the exploitation of resources,chiefly,oil.When they do not co-operate,they are conveniently labeled "dictators","specialists in ethnic cleansing" or any of a host of other labels that provide much emotional content but little in the way of objective consistency.Today's freedom fighter is tomorrow's terrorist.

Precise targeting of those responsible does not suit the agenda of the vested interests as they are desirous of a much broader mandate in order to project yet more military might(enriching the infamous military/industrial complex in the process)and to secure their geopolitical ends.I do not even mention enhancing the power of the state in the process.America is now on the cusp of losing what little remains of a once great and moral nation'slowly consumed by fascism and abetted by the ignorance and apathy of it's own citizens.A sad end for a country that had such promise and served as a model for the world."




Is it really the end?I don't think so,however,it's up to Americans to say "no" to the leaders hijacking the agenda,distorting the true facts'suppressing the rights the forefathers fought for and most importantly;spilling the blood of it's people.

When I was a kid,I always thought the best way to fight wars was to get the leaders to duke it out "Gladiator" style.Maybe that's not such a crazy idea after all.

Watch "Paths of Glory",that movie says it all about who really makes the sacrifices in wartime.

What does all this have to do with gold?

Ask Alan Greenspan,he knows.
tg
(10/07/2001; 05:02:20 MDT - Msg ID: 63079)
deflation?
http://hsgfx:reciprocal@www.hussman.com/hussman/members/updates/latest.htmdoes anyone else see the following as a reason to fear deflation, rather then inflation, at least in the short term.

"So we are left with a "stimulus package" that will largely focus on lump sum transfers to "prime the pump" by "putting money into the hands of businesses and consumers" (my fingers actually made little choking and gagging noises as I typed those phrases). To see why there is little hope for such a plan, we have to go back to the concept of equilibrium - the notion that every security issued must also be held. Here we have a downturn in which businesses have dramatically scaled back capital spending (beginning long before Sept 11) and consumers are in the process of scaling back purchases. Both are saddled with unusually large debt burdens. Now, suppose the government cuts taxes and sends out some tax rebates. Simultaneously, the government must borrow more (or retire less debt than it otherwise would have). Somebody must hold those bonds in equilibrium. Most likely what happens, in aggregate, is that individuals use their tax rebates to buy the newly issued Treasury bonds.

In my view, there is only one situation in which government or Fed actions can stimulate economic activity. That is when government actions relax constraints that consumers or businesses faced in the absence of those actions. For instance, in a banking system where borrowers are very eager but banks are constrained by a lack of liquidity, a Fed easing has the potential to increase bank lending and economic activity. It's not the easing per se that does the trick in this case, but the fact that the easing helps to eliminate a liquidity constraint that was holding the economy back. Similarly, if consumers and businesses were very eager to increase spending, but their budgets didn't allow it and their ability to borrow was constrained, then a tax reduction could ease that budget constraint and lead to greater economic activity.

The problem here is that businesses and consumers aren't constrained. They are choosing to limit their spending. Similarly, banks aren't constrained by a lack of liquidity. Bank lending is weak because borrowers are choosing to take on less debt and banks are choosing to take fewer new credit risks. In this kind of environment, shifts in government fiscal or monetary policy are a wash, because government is, in aggregate, a zero-sum game. It only gives with one hand by taking with the other. Fiscal policy can reduce taxes only by issuing more Treasury bonds. Meanwhile, monetary policy simply substitutes one type of government liability - Treasury bonds - with another government liability - monetary base.

Whatever the size of the "stimulus package" here, the difficulty is quite simple. It will have little impact on incentives and it will have little impact on constraints. The most stimulative tax changes are also the most partisan, and are unlikely to pass Congress. Meanwhile, the amount of telecom debt alone that is likely to be downgraded by Moody's in the next week will nearly equal the size of the entire stimulus package...........

As for yield trends, they remain hostile. Certainly short term Treasury yields are acting "well", but corporate yields are actually rising, utility yields are surging (generally a bad sign), and important yield spreads are behaving badly. The two most striking include the widening "credit spread" between corporate and Treasury yields, which suggests increasing risk of corporate defaults, and the narrowing "real spread" between short-term yields and inflation. Real short-term interest rates (nominal yield minus inflation) are now negative. In both historical and international data, negative real rates herald poor economic growth ahead. And such signals need not be due to high inflation, as Japan found over the past decade"
tg
(10/07/2001; 07:34:32 MDT - Msg ID: 63080)
more inflation vs deflation
http://www.prudentbear.com/credit.htmCurrent debate seems to naturally fall back into "inflation versus deflation." Yet, at least as long as we are in the midst of historic U.S. mortgage credit excess, I tend to view the critical consequence of such a distorted financial and economic environment as a continuation of extreme and unstable divergences in relative prices. Or, said differently, an out of control U.S. credit system is locked in a hopeless cycle of fueling recurring booms and subsequent unavoidable busts. I am not willing today, with the ongoing explosion of mortgage credit and money supply, to label the subsequent busts "deflation."

We have, of course, argued strongly for some time that a frantic Fed was only digging deeper into a pit of failed policy. This has never appeared as conspicuous as it does today. The analogy would be a person caught in a lie later forced to concoct increasingly far-fetched tales desperately hoping somehow the mess will fade away before it is all exposed. Unfortunately, this huge mess will not be resolved with only more preposterous monetary fudging. The insurmountable dilemma really boils down to the fact that the extremely maladjusted U.S. Bubble economy and financial system require enormous new credit creation basically just to keep from imploding. At the same time, a maladjusted economy and faltering credit system are providing increasingly limited avenues to expand credit, with bursting Bubbles not at all conducive to credit expansion. It's not an interest rate issue outside of the powerful impact lower rates have in prolonging the great mortgage-lending Bubble.

Quite ominously, we have witnessed unprecedented mortgage credit creation and monetary expansion over the past year succeed only to the point of keeping the U.S. economy sputtering along and financial system from buckling. Furthermore, we have for three years watched (in disbelief) unrelenting and extreme liquefication from the GSEs. Seeing such powerful monetary fuel increasingly lose its potency has signaled to us that the U.S. Bubble is approaching the end of its rope. As everyone knows, the Fed, GSEs and global central bankers have mastered the art of sustaining an overliquefied U.S. financial system and dollar Bubble. What people don't seem to appreciate is the degree of damage being imparted on financial systems and economies in the process. In the end, there is grossly insufficient real economic wealth to support the continuing unprecedented inflation of financial claims, particularly problematic with respect to ballooning foreign claims on U.S. assets. There are as well unmistakable signs of acute stress emanating from the global financial system, and at home from the equity to CDO to Repo markets. It sure looks to us today like an awfully thin line is being drawn between the continuing massive increase in financial claims necessary to keep this sordid game going and the maintenance of confidence in the sustainability of the system. This is An Exceedingly Troubling Circumstance
Mr Gresham
(10/07/2001; 08:17:37 MDT - Msg ID: 63081)
tg
Good selections from Doug Noland. I counted: he uses the word "default" 16 times. Much of the essay is about the rise of "default insurance" derivatives, growing in amount alongside the interest rate "products" already in great supply.

Deflation? That would mean all those corporate debtors paying back in even MORE valuable dollars? Fuhgeddaboudit!

Just like with earnings "surprises", "extraordinary" writeoffs, and mass layoff announcements, if Everybody does their pre-packaged default at about the same time, no execs need lose their jobs and the perks of power. Ollie-ollie-in-free! Do over!
Brett Woods
(10/07/2001; 09:42:40 MDT - Msg ID: 63082)
more here
http://www.arabworldnews.com/..more polit editorial
ROSEBUD99
(10/07/2001; 09:59:58 MDT - Msg ID: 63083)
RE: tg inflation vs deflation
I used to believe that deflation would result from the bursting of the bubble. All the bad loans that were made and speculative businesses that were formed would go bad and therefore default and so we would have deflation. This was the standard bear arguments. I think the only problem with this position is if you follow it to its conclusion. In a deflationary environment asset prices will decline. Well, those assets are the collateral for the banking system. With all the loans and leverage in the system now this would quickly lead to a collapse of the banking system. I think this result would fall into the category of "been there, done that". This result I feel would be unacceptable to the Fed and the government. Since the Fed is an institution that is "by the Bank's for the banks", I think they will do anything in their power to prevent this from happening. We also need to remember that the Fed has the power to buy any and all debt outstanding.
Many people say that the Fed will get into position of pushing on a string. I think we saw in the last few weeks that this will not happen. The Fed had no problem creating a record increase in the money supply.
I think Trail Guide summed it up very good for us when he said they will be "throwing balls of twine".
So therefore I think where we are going is inflation and lots of it. This shall be their choice as its their only acceptable choice. The alternative is system collapse.
Galearis
(10/07/2001; 10:33:13 MDT - Msg ID: 63084)
@Mr Gresham, sourdough, and Netking
re yesterdays comments....Mr. Gresham and sourdought:
Real busy this weekend (Thanksgiving for us) and cannot find time to comment much this weekend.

Yes, sourdough and Mr. Gresham for those of us with just a little understanding of the fiscal peculiarities of governments wading and directing fiat currencies in our improved papered over world realize (and I am far from an expert in this) that changes must be made and compromises necessary for our coming stormy future. There will be pain and most will remain confused. The oft-heard phrase when I try to explain a little of this to people out there is: "I'm not very interested in the details of how it works." But the common business man still spends 90% of his waking hours chasing profits measured by the whimsical health of a ponzi scheme. I remain flabergasted! DISINTERESTED!? Single-stop reasoning or laziness, I don't know. BUt then I remember that most of us were at one time one of the sheople, yes? Ecologists would have the same attitude in their area of concern and they too are correct. Irony? Yes.

@Netking re silver (see how good I am being on staying on topic?):

The following is an email received from Rhody on silver. This is a theme that I have been worried about for some time. The message is a comment on a July offering by Ted Butler and think we silver bugs should pause and consider the situation in this light:
snip****
Here is the TB article about the defense implications for the run down of silver stockpiles.
In a national emergency (like now) the powers that be (including the Canadian Govt)
will likely take control of the silver "market" and attempt a confiscation. I can't believe
they have been completely ignorant of the activities of the SUA. If they know that the
SUA has been manipulating the silver market down, and this group has been allowed to
do it, then the SUA is acting as an arm of the govt, and totalitarianism has made even
greater inroads into western society than I thought. It is subtle, but the absolute
control is there, iffy you look. TB has looked, and still hasn't seen. He still believes
in a free market. I don't think we have had that for 30 years.
The problem with manipulating the law of supply and demand, is that eventually the
manipulators get creamed by the reaction from either the supply side of the law or the
demand side. Silver is highly inelastic in its relationship with this law. That is to say,
with only minor manipulation, one will see a maximum reaction, once the fundamentals
are recognized. This reaction should take place next spring, when the world runs out
of above ground stocks of silver, and the paper defaults begin. Mind you, this was my
opinion before 911. The WTC attack has buried 100 MOZ of silver, the largest above
ground stockpile of silver in the world under a pile of rubble that will take one year to
unearth. This moves my prediction of default forward to the nest few months.
*****
I only disagree slightly with Sir Rhody. I think an organism as complex as government is seldom THAT aware. It takes a lot to get their attention and the inertia to changes is hard to believe. Also the politics of those in the DOD or Treasury tend to muzzle the people within the system that would try to warn of what is coming.... Truth or my job? Which do they pick? At best cover the behind and send a polite memo up the line to be surely buried....Yup.
FWIW.

Happy Thanksgiving all. Hope our friends to the south have as nice a one as I am enjoying..

G.
slingshot
(10/07/2001; 10:42:44 MDT - Msg ID: 63085)
USAGOLD Msg# 63068
Great Post!
Slingshot
ROSEBUD99
(10/07/2001; 10:53:12 MDT - Msg ID: 63086)
its started
the bombing has begun.
Old Yeller
(10/07/2001; 10:54:22 MDT - Msg ID: 63087)
The government;insurer of last resort?
http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-perl/bbs.pl?read=189179
This story may be an admission of responsibility,hidden among the other issues mentioned.
sourdough
(10/07/2001; 11:33:56 MDT - Msg ID: 63088)
Galearis (10/7/01; 10:33:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 63084
In regard to Canadian politics, I must say Stockwell Day has been a particular dissapointment to me as I live in his riding and voted for him.
Personally I am leaning more and more to the Western Separtist Movement with a view to a trading bloc with northwest states.
B.C. also has oil off the northern coast,ELECTRICITY, gas,coal,minerals and WATER.
Perhaps the time is coming.
When the dust clears and the truth shines on what the "Eastern" power mongers have done, control over our destiny (B.C.,Yukon,Alberta, Manitoba) will be brought home to the west. Hopefully gold will play a role in the structure of this new Republic.
If export receipts from gas/oil/electricity was converted from $ to GOLD now,using low interest CDN/U.S. based bonds to finance government expenditures, the west could find themselves in an enviable position when Gold doubles or triples and the bonds ,priced in dollars at low rates become a joke.

One hopes Ralph Kline can see the writing on the wall (in french and english of course)
Our relations with Washington,Oregon Idaho, Montana, Dakota,Alaska, is and will become closer, while the "EAST" becomes more distant every day.
Netking
(10/07/2001; 12:09:47 MDT - Msg ID: 63089)
Galearis
Sir Galearis 63084 Re:"the powers that be (including the Canadian Govt)will likely take control of the silver "market" and attempt a confiscation"

Netking > That is as they say "the 64 million dollar question". If, when & at what price might they take control yes?.

That is "supposed to be" one of the reasons why Warren B. purchased his B.H. silver holding in the UK . . . and maybe why our European Ag bugs complain even today about there not being any? I guess we'll see soon enough. I agree the clock has been brought forward, I am picking up the signs of the squeeze all over the place starting to kick in. Hope the thanksgiving was a good one. Despite some recent events, we all have so very much to thank God for.
- Netking
Black Blade
(10/07/2001; 12:45:48 MDT - Msg ID: 63090)
Third-quarter profits forecast: Speculation & fuzzy math
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/011007/n04283145_1.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK, Oct. 7 (Reuters) -- Shedding light on the future is never easy -- but Wall Street's forecasters never before had to predict profits for Corporate America on so much speculation. ``Investors shouldn't pay much attention to the estimates,'' said Chuck Hill, director of research at Thomson Financial/First Call, the research service that makes its living compiling earnings forecasts. ``They won't be very representative because there's a lot more fuzziness now than we would normally have.''

U.S. companies start reporting quarterly results next week, and investors are bracing for steep declines and grim corporate forecasts. Analysts for now expect the worst quarterly profits in a decade, but much of it is fuzzy math. Wall Street analysts, following companies' guidance, have sharply reduced projections for consumer cyclical companies' earnings in the third quarter. The companies profits are seen falling 21 percent, more than the drop of 8 percent projected before the attacks. But their revisions are not based on good information, said Hill.


Black Blade: I wondered how long it would be before this kind of crap floated down and out of Wall Street. These kind of comments were inevitable. I just read a report where Peter Lynch (Mr. Fidelity Magellan Mutual Fund) is saying that investors should just stay in the market, don't worry (and be happy?) and that times like these are normal - Huh? You just gotta know that Pro Forma accounting, statistical filters and other dubious measures of corporate earnings will be used to "massage" the data. Now they are telling us if the numbers are dismal - well just don't believe them, discount this as an anomaly, or don't read too much into it. Now they are saying that the third quarter numbers will be meaningless. What they are saying is - "Hey suckers, we know the numbers are horrific but just ignore them (or don't believe your lying eyes) and feed us more cash!" Better prepare for the worst as the US economy is toast. Get basic necessities, get PM portfolio insurance, a few months of cash on hand, and most definitely get out of debt. The Wall Street propaganda machine is really smoking now.

- Caveat Emptor!
Black Blade
(10/07/2001; 13:04:39 MDT - Msg ID: 63091)
Companies' Big Debts Now Carry Big Risks
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nyt/20011007/bs/companies_big_debts_now_carry_big_risks_1.html
Snippit:

The United States is almost certainly in a recession, and many companies now face a stark future. Much of corporate America is overextended. During the boom, "things were so good that a lot of folks loaded up on debt and on employees," said David Trone, senior regional bank stock analyst at Prudential Securities. "Now it has quickly unraveled. You have a whole lot of industries with overcapacity." Many heavy borrowers, Mr. Trone said, are at great risk.

Investors may be especially unprepared for the wringing out of these risks. In recent years, Wall Street has largely ignored the high levels of debt lurking on the balance sheets of many companies. Instead, analysts obsessed over revenue growth and earnings, if companies had any. Not surprisingly, many companies have run short of cash and have simply stopped paying their obligations. Default rates on corporate bonds have already zoomed past the levels seen in the last recession, in 1990. By August, even before Sept. 11, default rates on high-yield bonds had reached 9.6 percent, above the 8.7 percent peak of 1990, according to Fitch Inc., a credit rating agency. Almost $56 billion in debt was in default as August began, roughly double the amount of defaults in all of 2000.

Rising defaults, along with other evidence of credit problems in corporate America, have been percolating through the economy for some time. As early as the third quarter of 1998, the number of debt downgrades began exceeding upgrades, said Diane Vazza, head of global fixed-income research at Standard & Poor's. They have done so ever since for 13 consecutive quarters. That is well beyond the 11 consecutive quarters of higher downgrades around the recession of the early 1990's.

Feeling flush, consumers have for years spent more than they have made, and they, too, are entering this recession with heavy debt and no cushion. Consumer debt was $1.6 trillion in July, more than double the $783 billion 10 years ago, according to the Federal Reserve. This year, households are using 14.35 cents of every dollar of their disposable income to pay interest, compared with 12.35 cents in 1995. That burden becomes only heavier when rising layoffs are added to the mix. Companies cut almost 200,000 jobs in September, the biggest decline in a decade.


Black Blade: As I said - Get out of debt, get basic necessities, and protect yourselves (look out for number one) with Gold and Silver PM portfolio insurance and several months worth of cash on hand for expenses. It is going to get really ugly. We live in "Interesting Times"

The "Bone Pile" continues to grow exponentially, Debt continues to grow, corporate earnings are nearly nonexistent, consumer confidence is slipping, continuing terrorism and war on the horizon, etc. In a word - "GRIM"
Black Blade
(10/07/2001; 13:44:00 MDT - Msg ID: 63092)
Why should the Military and Terrorists Have All the Fun?
http://www.fieler.com/terror/
Now that the US has begun to attack the Taliban And Al-Qaeda Cults in Afghanistan with military strikes, I thought why should the military and the terrorists have all the fun. Since it is a rather slow this afternoon and we await the opening of the Gold trading session overseas, I have posted a "diversionary" link. Cheers!

- Black Blade
WAC (Wide Awake Club)
(10/07/2001; 14:24:32 MDT - Msg ID: 63093)
Markets Reaction Uncertain
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1584000/1584957.stmInvestors may turn to traditional havens such as gold and safe currencies like the Swiss franc following the start of military action.
slingshot
(10/07/2001; 15:18:24 MDT - Msg ID: 63094)
Mr. Taliban.
Hey! Mr. Taliban, where is Osama?
Air Force come and they Bombed my home.
Yes! Mr Taliban you can do it if you wanna.
Now you can reap what you have sown.

Slingshot
Netking
(10/07/2001; 15:45:06 MDT - Msg ID: 63095)
US closes diplomatic missions in Saudi
From BBC . . . US closes diplomatic missions in Saudi Arabia until further notice after security review.
The Invisible Hand
(10/07/2001; 16:01:42 MDT - Msg ID: 63096)
"Now you can reap what you have sown."
Mr Slingshot:

"Now you can reap what you have sown."
At whom is that addressed? The gold shorts or the world cop?

slingshot
(10/07/2001; 16:14:45 MDT - Msg ID: 63097)
The Invisible Hand Msg# 63096
The last line of thst little ditty is aimed at the Taliban Regime. One that has allowed the operation of many Terrorist camps and is so have sowed the seeds or terrorism to be imposed upon the world by a fanatic. It is fitting that the form of execution come in the same manner, (from the sky). They are now reaping (WAR) for what they have sown(Protection for Terrorism).

Diplomacy does not always work.
Slingshot
megatron
(10/07/2001; 16:39:05 MDT - Msg ID: 63098)
Obvious, but needs bold caps in every newspaper
Governments didn't invent the gold standard.
4000 years of human economic activity did.
Netking
(10/07/2001; 16:47:00 MDT - Msg ID: 63099)
Megatron
Welcome back Sir, what's your spin on Ag & Au at the moment?
- Netking
The Invisible Hand
(10/07/2001; 17:15:30 MDT - Msg ID: 63100)
slingshot msg#: 63097
I thought that he last line of that little ditty was aimed at the Bush Regime. One that has allowed the operation of many Terrorist camps and is so have sowed the seeds or terrorism to be imposed upon the world by a fanatic. It is fitting that the form of execution come in the same manner, (from the sky). They are now reaping (WAR) for what they have sown(Protection for Terrorism).
Cavan Man
(10/07/2001; 17:19:54 MDT - Msg ID: 63101)
Hello slingshot
The U.S. government paid your "Taliban" $43mm dollars in May, 2001 as payola in the "War on Drugs". Look it up in the LA Times somewhere in the May, 2001 editions.
megatron
(10/07/2001; 17:20:50 MDT - Msg ID: 63102)
Netking
Unfortunately, somewhere there is a meeting of bankers attempting to coerce(read; holding gun to head literally) the Swiss,etc to unload about 500 Au tons in the first half of 2002, and we all know what that means. Conversly, there is a meeting somewhere with sweaty handwringing over where to get 50 tons of Ag just to keep a lid on it for 2 weeks. Short/Medium term Outcome; gold down --silver up. Bet on it.
Artie Farkle
(10/07/2001; 17:21:54 MDT - Msg ID: 63103)
(No Subject)
Check out the POG
Cavan Man
(10/07/2001; 17:23:25 MDT - Msg ID: 63104)
AU Market
Remember Gold (POG)??Hello. + $2.5 is USD
R Powell
(10/07/2001; 17:26:11 MDT - Msg ID: 63105)
POG and POS up
Gold is up $2.70
Silver is up four cents
Probably thinly traded in the land down under but at least a positive reaction to the uncertainty of the attack against the Taliban. I hope the food drop for the Afgan people includes written confirmation, in their language, of the origin of the supplies and perhaps some other information explaining the intent (and limitations) of the attacks. Poorly informed people under attack and displaced by war are sometimes easily misinformed.
Trading starts in Hong Kong at 9:00 EST.
Netking- thanks for Rhody's thoughts
Rich
Leigh
(10/07/2001; 17:26:44 MDT - Msg ID: 63106)
POG Up Early
This is EARLY, isn't it? I thought the gold market opened up at 8:00 Eastern Time. Hi, megatron!!
Cavan Man
(10/07/2001; 17:27:47 MDT - Msg ID: 63107)
megatron
With POO and POG languishing (or declining) expect an October surprise in Euro for OIL. Would you stand by under the current circumstances and conduct business as usual?
R Powell
(10/07/2001; 17:30:23 MDT - Msg ID: 63108)
Galearis
Credit were it is due. Thanks for the info from Rhody.
Cavan Man
(10/07/2001; 17:30:43 MDT - Msg ID: 63109)
megatron
What would the Swiss have to gain? What would be their motivation to accelerate their sales? I won't accept "the devil made them do it" as an answer. Regards....CM
Galearis
(10/07/2001; 17:31:15 MDT - Msg ID: 63110)
@ sourdough re business, politics and national identity
Country or business interestsHello Sir sourdough,

Your quote:"In regard to Canadian politics, I must say Stockwell Day has been a particular dissapointment to me as I live in his riding and voted for him.
Personally I am leaning more and more to the Western Separtist Movement with a view to a trading bloc with northwest states.
B.C. also has oil off the northern coast,ELECTRICITY, gas,coal,minerals and WATER.
Perhaps the time is coming.
When the dust clears and the truth shines on what the "Eastern" power mongers have done, control over our destiny (B.C.,Yukon,Alberta, Manitoba) will be brought home to the west. Hopefully gold will play a role in the structure of this new Republic."

This is an oft-repeated statement of endless variations that is echoed even in Quebec - but at least their woes and greivances are of a cultural nature. When one models an argument for a country's, state's or province's direction on purely an economic platform one can indeed make a good case for extremes. Ontario is no different in this regard from that of Alberta for surely we of the east have just as much in common, in terms of trading block partners, as the west. Here it would make much more sense for Ontario to aligne with New York/Michigan because that is where almost all our trade goes. But I would be the last to advocate a union along more political lines. (God knows what Mike Harris could be thinking and I use the word "think" in the loosest sense in application to this one). It is even easier to trade with the US states mentioned than it is with Quebec and Manitoba due to interprovincial tariff barriers - a singularly rediculous situation with a country that allegedly has free trade with the US.

But culturally (in the sense held by those in Quebec) I remain a Canadian and would not welcome murging with those of the south in spite of some vague sense that that fine country has a superior culture to Canada. That would be simplistic, indeed. In my view it is also quite a mistaken argument - for it IS ONLY based on economic weights. There is much to be admired about the way Americans go about things, and also much that is alien to how we look on the world.

Ask yourself one question. Could you see an American even pausing to think about giving up to another country all that he believes in for economic gain? Perhaps it is a Canadian trait that we would even think such a thing.

Perhaps Canadians are much more practical than Americans. Perhaps they hate their own country that much. If so, why?

And some still hold this as a course for the future as even now we sell our economic infrastructure to the US made viable by a rigged currency exchange rate, for a currency that is by a considerable percentage doomed to lose great value in order for those former Canadian companies to reap a most short term gain. But those now American companies will prosper and influence our country along the way towards a future that may be far less Canadian than most of us realize now - or probably want. That's my position, at any rate.

Besides, look at all the gold (in the ground) the US would get. One would think they really need it, yes?

The other problem with a merger idea is that the US would perhaps find our world view a little "indigestible", a little too "socialistic" and hence subversive for them. So for the time being the process of amalgamation will continue behind the scenes, behind the closed doors of corporate boardrooms, and they will send the profits south without the political problems of a closer affiliation.

Happy Thanksgiving (ironic smile),

G.

P.S. Agree with you about Stockwell Day. What took you so long? (grin)
Cavan Man
(10/07/2001; 17:33:04 MDT - Msg ID: 63111)
megatron
If I were the Swiss......under the current circumstances; I'd keep my powder dry.
Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD
(10/07/2001; 17:35:32 MDT - Msg ID: 63112)
Hard assets... Easy access!
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

sovereigns
Gold Today!

Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

In this global marketplace, a single event on the far side of the world can suddenly and adversely affect the performance-credibility value of the commercial positions within your investment portfolio.

Gold has no employees, no overhead, and no financial statement to balance. It cannot go bankrupt. Gold is wealth itself. It is valued worldwide on the basis of its uniquely reliable form and function -- a steadfast financial commodity which is immune to the contagious collapses to which all financial paper is prone.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

R Powell
(10/07/2001; 17:45:19 MDT - Msg ID: 63113)
Megatron
Nice to see you hanging around here tonight.
It may turn out that even the strongest, nastiest bankers in the world won't be able to hold POG down when physical silver for immediate delivery and use is in short supply. I believe many silver users bypass the paper markets altogether and instead buy directly from the source so the futures market may remain calm until word leaks out that there is not enough. If we're right about silver's shortage and the coming squeeze, POG will follow sister silver higher, don't you think?
I will not vary from my position until/unless I'm convinced we're wrong but it still amazes me that the fundamentals of the market have not raised POS long ago. How can so many be so blind OR does that huge, unknown supply exist somewhere? (other than in Ted Butler's basement)
Rich
megatron
(10/07/2001; 18:10:24 MDT - Msg ID: 63114)
Sorry but.....
This isn't what I wish for but IMO what will transpire as the situation becomes unstable. The Swiss have made the illogic of their decision 3 years ago to unload plain for all to see,climbed the tree,and cannot back down now. They can only accelerate to avoid the rise in their currency against the $. Most people here discount violent threats against these bankers but I do not. It is either happening or will happen soon. By the end of this year it will be revealed that many tons were sold into the market on an accelerated schedule. Silver should be able to sidestep this episode with a 2 dollar rise to flush out some supply.
It(the rally) will be capped at $7.
megatron
(10/07/2001; 18:18:12 MDT - Msg ID: 63115)
Leigh ,et al
Sorry for the negativity, since you all know your the best investors a guy can chat with :} Have had some good conversations with FOREX traders and paper traders and they seem to be turning bearish on the dollar, SHORT TERM, but are still looking for the dollar to go up. Will they ever learn? They are betting it all. Crazy. I'm with yooze guys LONG TERM but the events of the last month have completely changed my outlook and strategy.
Netking
(10/07/2001; 18:25:59 MDT - Msg ID: 63116)
Ag - Cap
Given the scenario of a cap at say at around $7.25/oz (an old resistance/support level) this would mean no Ag Comex default (in all probability). . . . But would mean a big migration of paper silver dollars at this impasse across to the remaining physical Ag metal. . . Maybe causing whatever is holding the dam to finally burst open . . . to the moon . . .
R Powell
(10/07/2001; 18:32:11 MDT - Msg ID: 63117)
POG predictions
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/taylor100801pv.html Megatron, nothing wrong with $7 silver for starters.
Some predictions on POG in the article linked above,
prices for one year hence,
Chapman 1,000-2,000
Bishop 325-425
Tice 700
Gordon 600-800
The article is by Jay Taylor. Do you think they're all too conservative?
Rich
BR549
(10/07/2001; 18:37:56 MDT - Msg ID: 63118)
What goes around....
The Invisible Hand (msg#: 63100)�"I thought that he last line of that little ditty was aimed at the Bush Regime. One that has allowed the operation of many Terrorist camps and is so have sowed the seeds or terrorism to be imposed upon the world by a fanatic."

Invisible, how did the Bush regime get all of this done in just 9 short months? The World Alliance (your world cops) are attempting to crop dust those seeds that have been sown back into the dirt from which they grew. Are you for this crop eradication since these allied crop dusters are detrimental to future terrorist seed growth or not?

BTW-What has your post got to do with the POG?

BR549
megatron
(10/07/2001; 18:52:34 MDT - Msg ID: 63119)
NetKing/RPowell
$7 silver will be 'allowed' because it is deemed essential to flush out the supply. People like Buffet will start to sell at $7 or be 'asked nicely' to sell at a decent profit, and I will certainly be 'helping out' at any value above $7
Gold of course cannot benefit from lack of supply and is now deemed 'vitally important' to be kept in check. It will be pounded, like Afganistan. If it is not, and rises above $425 I will reiterate my earlier contention that there will be a collapse and guns or property will be of far more use.
This is where I think numbskulls like Wanniski see, dimly, the rationale? for locking gold to $300. It's now either-or.
David Linkley
(10/07/2001; 18:58:29 MDT - Msg ID: 63120)
$4 to $5 upside short term
http://news.ino.com/intraday/?storyid=DJN6189109012349 GMT [Dow Jones] UBS Warburg analyst Shaun Giacomo tips $4-$5 upside for gold short term; likely to continue trading at premium on strong demand sparked by security concerns, with "record levels of coin buying" in Europe, U.S., strong bullion buying from Japan, possibly more buying from India. (WCP)

Linkley Comment: In a world increasingly hectored by the destabilizing events following the World Trade Center attacks, safe haven has taken on a whole new meaning. It used to be that in times of uncertainty the world's investor's would flock to the dollar. Now, with the United States and Wall Street on the target list, international money is beginning to shun the dollar and go to that last refuge of scared money -- gold. And there probably isn't enough of it around to satisfy the world's investors. Some expect gold to break the $300 within the next few days.
USAGOLD
(10/07/2001; 19:08:23 MDT - Msg ID: 63121)
Queen Victoria Sovereigns. . . .
I wanted to mention that we still have about 200 or so Queen sovereigns left. This has been a very popular offering. These coins are difficult to obain in uncirculated condition and at these prices a bargain. The on-line store will be open and the Queen sovereigns will be allocated until we run out. No matter what happens with the price, you can order this item at the on-line store prices. I would recommend your quick action if the Queen Victoria sovereigns interest you. After this, it becomes problematic whether or not we acquire a large enough tranche to make them available in one of our on-line offerings. MK
USAGOLD
(10/07/2001; 19:11:24 MDT - Msg ID: 63122)
Here's the link for the Queen Victoria sovereign offering mentioned below. . . . .
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.htmlAnd remember:

It is your purchase from USAGOLD/Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Thank you friends and clientele. . . . . .
Cavan Man
(10/07/2001; 19:19:32 MDT - Msg ID: 63123)
USAGOLD
MK: What do you think of megatron's comments? Should we trade into the rally a little bit?
The Invisible Hand
(10/07/2001; 19:21:07 MDT - Msg ID: 63124)
Gold, War and Inflation

David,

Welcome back.

You make the very interesting observation that
It used to be that in times of uncertainty the world's investor's would flock to the dollar. Now, with the United States and Wall Street on the target list, international money is beginning to shun the dollar and go to that last refuge of scared money -- gold.

Here's what Harry Browne has to say about this:
Gold also may profit from political or military crises that feed anxiety and increase the demand for a store of value. During periods of declining inflation (such as the mid-1980s), crises that cause the demand for money to rise are bullish for the US dollar. But during periods of rising inflation (such as the late 1970s), such events increase the demand for gold. So, if a political or military crisis occurs during an inflationary period, gold can profit from it. (BROWNE, H., "The Economic Time Bomb", New York, St Martin's Press, 1989, p.152-3).

The cause of gold's rise may thus be that dollar inflation can no longer be hidden. Comments anyone?
Cavan Man
(10/07/2001; 19:25:39 MDT - Msg ID: 63125)
megatron
500 tons would immediately go into strong hands. The "spin" from such an announcement could only tide the market over for six months or less. In the interim and under present circumstances et al, buying would likely accelerate significantly (IMHO).
R Powell
(10/07/2001; 19:43:56 MDT - Msg ID: 63126)
The Invisible Hand
Inflation Hamilton's latest article compares the recent inflation of the US money supply to a tsunami. He states that the increase since the 9/11 attack is about equal to the total money supply as of a date in the early 1960's. What more can the Fed. do to assure inflation?
Perhaps they might lower rates another point to guarantee the return of bigfloat. By then it will cost at least $20 for a cup of coffee.
Gold has opened in Hong Kong and is still doing fine. It was up $2.20 when I last looked.
God bless those Aussies for supporting it as they were the first, since the Taliban attack, to trade it. Perhaps others will now judge the hostilities as gold supportive.
Rich
slingshot
(10/07/2001; 20:09:35 MDT - Msg ID: 63127)
Invisible Hand And Cavan Man.
Excuse the long interval between posts. I have to share my time. Anyhow. Cavan Man : There has been millions of dollars given to many governments with the assumption that it will help in whatever the cause at the time. As in this country the more they receive the more they want for free. You could probably say it was the right thing to do at that time.

Invisible Hand: It appears we are diametricly opposed in our veiw of which regime is respondsible for these terrible acts. At this stage of the game with the attack on the WTC and possible other forms of terrorism, would you just live in a world of fear or stand up to the challenge to seek out and eliminate this threat? Could any other countries other than the USA and Russia be the WORLD COPS. Now there is a fine choice. The USA moves toward a socialist state as Russia moves to a democratic form or goverment.

In conclusion'should I say that Politics makes strange bedfellows and that Bush is making an attempt to make the world safer.

Those who have the Gold makes the rules. Who will make the rules when this is all over?
Slingshot
tedw
(10/07/2001; 20:11:42 MDT - Msg ID: 63128)
Chinese troops to support Taliban?
http://www.usagold.comArticle on worldnetdaily.


Could this be a trap for our troops?
Galearis
(10/07/2001; 20:38:08 MDT - Msg ID: 63129)
@megatron, R. Powell, Netking, "the seven dollar solution"
$7 will likely be the paper spot highOf course everyone is being highly speculative here, and in this new age fundamentals environment there really is NO way to predict price in a government policy manipulated commodities market. I still laugh at those who are doing the TAs on these markets. How DO they keep their sanity!?

The only thing one can be reasonably ("reason"ably) sure about is that Supply Fundamentals, the traditional balancing force in moving these markets is currently on vacation and nursing a tan in Barbados. He (or she) will forsake the ocean breezes when the bus boy with their last drink taps on the shoulder and says: "Sorry to intrude, but there is no more silver left."

"Ahahhh!" says S.F. "It is time for plan B to go into effect." Whereupon up he (or she) digs up his (or her) false passport and other accoutrements of deep cover and abandons utopia for the upper and safer reaches of the Amazon. Wet work forces will have begun their operations.

When the dust truly settles and the coast is truly clear, S.F. reappears somewhere else, safe and secure for a time until the forces of avarice once again march their destructive course across the new landscape.

And silver will be 7 euros/oz and $150US.

In twenty years when S.F is on a secluded beach in Barbados the bus boy taps...

(Grin)

G.
Netking
(10/07/2001; 20:44:28 MDT - Msg ID: 63130)
tedw - Chinese Tellytubbie Support
Ted - I have read this "news" report on at least two sites . . . if this scenario is true as it may well be, what's the real Chinese agenda here in your opinion?
Canuck
(10/07/2001; 20:49:52 MDT - Msg ID: 63131)
@tedw
I saw that at Debka as well, some 15,000 to support the Taliban?
Black Blade
(10/07/2001; 21:00:55 MDT - Msg ID: 63132)
Tabloid Debka Site
I would take anything read in a tabloid with a grain of salt. The debka site is an Israeli disinformation site that is usually wrong or may even mix a little fact with a lot of fiction. It is hard to believe that anyone could fall for some of the tabloid articles published there, especially with regard to any event in the ME. "Caveat Emptor"

- Black Blade
The Invisible Hand
(10/07/2001; 21:13:02 MDT - Msg ID: 63133)
Return to a honest monetary system
Slingshot,

You are asking me whether I would just live in a world of fear or stand up to the challenge to seek out and eliminate this threat.and whether any other countries other than the USA and Russia could be the WORLD COPS.

This raises first the question why we should tolerate fearing Russia and the US of A, i.e. why should we tolerate Russian and American aggression (against Iraq, Central American Honest Drugs Traders etc.), why should we accept their standards of justice. The next question is whether we need world cops. Perhaps if we didn't have self-appointed cops, we would have freedom and thus a honest monetary system.

How can you advocate justice if you advocate the drug war and advocate killing innocents since more than a decade in Iraq? Is that a just cause? Who are the outlaws and murderers and terrorists?

If this site had not USA in his name, I would go further. You can email me at migrator@www.cz.
Black Blade
(10/07/2001; 21:15:21 MDT - Msg ID: 63134)
Asian Marlets Sink
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asian markets are crumbling across the board. Looks to be an "Interesting" day in the markets. The Taliban Cult has sworn vegence on the west, and the Al Qaeda Cult is hinting at more terrorist acts. If they were to attack US energy interests the US economy would slide off into oblivion. If they were to successfully attack ME petroleum loading facilities in Saudi, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain, then all the western economies would irreversibly crash. This whole current terrorist/warfare story could be just the tip of the iceberg.
Christian
(10/07/2001; 21:27:17 MDT - Msg ID: 63135)
Pakistan - Taliban - IMF
China is sending troops to support Pakistan on the request of Pakistan. Pakistan's nuclear capabilities depends on China. -- We, the west, started a war with aerial bombardment which will be the prelude for a long drawn out war. The only thing the Taliban can do is sit it out and wait for our ground troops to come to them. It seems to me that the best policy is leave them there in those caves. Remove their support system any way possible. So far the CIA has been their main support. -- Your brokerage account in no way, shape, or manner reflects who literally owns your stocks and bonds. What you own is a brokerage account and nothing more. The FED, an international private banking cartel by treaty with the U.N. and in compliance with the Bretton Woods Agreement, the Depository Trust Company has pledged all those stocks, bonds, gold, silver and other precious metals to the IMF. Same goes with IRA, Keogh, 401k and other pension plans. YOU, you, do NOT own them.... you're just a beneficiary holder. The securities you purchased is collateral for the U.N. which is backed by the FED and it's associate agency, the IMF. We the people are financing the New World Order with our stocks, bonds and precious metal holdings. CEDE+Company is the Depository Trust Company. CEDE= to sureender possesion of by treaty. To relinquish. --The current war is to get Afghanistan to be part of U.N. It would be funny and ironic if the west lost the war in Afghanistan.
Black Blade
(10/07/2001; 21:58:36 MDT - Msg ID: 63136)
Many are unprepared for layoffs
http://www.msnbc.com/news/638462.asp?cp1=1
Some recent unemployed failed to save and racked up debt

Snippit:

Nationally, the savings cushion for hard times is woefully thin. At midyear, personal savings were 1.1% of income on an annualized basis, down from 1.3% a year earlier and from 2.4% for all of 1999, according to the Commerce Department. While those numbers don't include stock investments or capital gains, those who put money in the markets were seeing values fall even before the terrorist attacks.

Meanwhile, consumers have been piling on debt, enticed by a proliferation of credit-card offers and the buildup of subprime lending. As of this year's first quarter, 14.35% of U.S. households' disposable income was used for debt service, up from 13.51% in 1990, according to Federal Reserve Board statistics. "Whatever ratio you mention, consumer debt is at or near an all-time high," says Kenneth Thomas, a finance lecturer at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School in Philadelphia. He also says many homeowners used recent interest-rate cuts to refinance mortgages and pulled some equity from their homes to remodel, buy cars or pay off other debt.


Black Blade: Sorry, but I have no sympathy for these "Grasshoppers" who simply refused to take personal responsibility and to look out for their own families. That is pure negligence, nothing more. That is why I say it over and over - get out of debt, get basic necessities like dry goods, food and water to last several months, have enough cash on hand to pay expenses for several months, make very selective investments, and get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance. Don't end up like the "Grasshoppers" in the linked article - look out for number one - no one else will.
Black Blade
(10/07/2001; 22:13:00 MDT - Msg ID: 63137)
Searching for Honest Earnings Reports
http://www.bloomberg.com/feature/feature1002288233.html
Are CFOs ready for reform?

Snippit:

The group in charge of honest corporate accounting in the U.S., the Financial Acounting Standards Board (FASB), says it might do something to curb the growing incidence of misleading corporate earnings reports. A study, announced in August, will center on pro forma earnings: numbers that don't conform to generally accepted accounting standards.

If they follow form, chief financial officers and their bosses -- accustomed to saying earnings are whatever they want them to be -- are sure to object. Their companies' stocks already had been battered before Sept. 11 even with inflated profit statements. Candid reports might send the shares down even more.


Black Blade: Will never happen! "Honesty is the best policy" is only an idiom for corporate CFO's and not words to live by. If honest corporate accounting were to occur then investors would be scared half to death and run for the exits. For example, we would then know that Amazon.com was facing bankruptcy and Cisco is bleeding cash and on the ropes. The bottom line really does count! That's why I say be very selective in your investments - you just gotta be careful when swimming with sharks.
slingshot
(10/07/2001; 22:18:16 MDT - Msg ID: 63138)
Invisible Hand Msg#63133
First I do advocate Justice and if that advocates a war on drugs like Heroin from Afhaganistan or any other nation,fine.
I have lost friends to drugs smuggled into my country and have seen the carnage done to our youth.The innocent killings in Iraq started with the invasion of Kuwait. Who called for help and introduced AMERICAN AGRESSION.
I have been called many names in my time. Never a outlaw murderer or terrorist.

Good night, Invisible Hand.


Go Gold, Go GATA, And GOD BLESS THE USA.
Slingshot
Black Blade
(10/07/2001; 22:24:15 MDT - Msg ID: 63139)
Dotcoms heading for second slump
http://www.observer.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,564448,00.html

With ad revenues draining away since 11 September, even mighty Amazon is in trouble.

Snippit:

Ouch. Just as the remaining dotcom firms thought they had weathered the storm, consumer confidence takes a battering. And suddenly even the long-term future of the biggest name in the dotcom world - Amazon - looks a little shaky. The tragic events of 11 September have hit the dotcom world just as the online firms were preparing for the run-up to Christmas - traditionally their busiest time of the year. For many cash-strapped firms, failure to hit third- and fourth-quarter sales targets will mark the end of the road.

Black Blade: DITTO! Ya mean there are still some surviving Dot.Coms? BTW, if anyone is interested, CNBC Europe is on and the spot POG and Brent Crude appear on the lower right hand corner. Currently POG up +$1.93.
Black Blade
(10/07/2001; 22:30:38 MDT - Msg ID: 63140)
slingshot

Unfortunately many more people have been killed because of the "War on Drugs" and the loss of individual rights and liberty as a result of these failed policies are simply not worth the price. If these drugs are so terrible then fine, let natural selection take its course and remove the weak (and stupid) from the gene pool. As for myself I do not wish to be subject to government tyranny. Regards,

- Black Blade
nugget0
(10/07/2001; 22:40:44 MDT - Msg ID: 63141)
rumours of war...

a friend of my son, arrived back from London on Saturday, & tells an interesting story.
Three weeks ago, while travelling on the London Underground, she saw a man drop
a wallet...she picked it up, chased the man, & returned it. He was very greatful, but had
nothing to offer as a reward. The man , of middle eastern appearance, did however tell her not to be in London in two weeks time....
She contacted police, who said they had watched the exchange on CCTV, & were aware of the man's
identity....the two weeks is this week...
FWIW....
The Invisible Hand
(10/07/2001; 23:25:59 MDT - Msg ID: 63142)
"The innocent killings in Iraq started with the invasion of Kuwait"
Slingshot,

Remember 1492? White man invaded North America? Who are you to cast the first stone? As you so eloquently put it, " [the Indians] who called for help and introduced AMERICAN AGRESSION".

The point being that if aggression wasn't initiated by the US of A, perhaps we would have a free world with a honest monetary system.

Spartacus
(10/07/2001; 23:44:50 MDT - Msg ID: 63143)
(No Subject)
site steward (10/5/01; 14:09:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 63002)
"cascading failures"

Just read your reply. Thanks
The Invisible Hand
(10/09/2001; 04:33:18 MDT - Msg ID: 63216)
Re: Very quiet before the storm?
Rich,
I know that October 09 has been postponed to November 05.
But what happened to this and what happened to the GATA scoop which was coming before 911?

[GATA] Back from another trip to Washington: The gold story is going to break

By Bill Murphy
www.LeMetropoleCafe.com
September 6, 2001

The GATA story will be all over the world press in the
weeks to come. One story will lead to another. As the
Reg Howe complaint hearing on October 9 approaches,
"Read All About It" type of stories will surface more
in the financial press. The more the facts are checked
out, the greater the aspersions will be cast on The
Gold Cartel and on their apologists. They will no
longer be able to hide what they have done and to keep
the gold truth in the dark -- where vampires like them
thrive on the blood of innocents. View Yesterday's Discussion.

Pandagold
(10/09/2001; 05:03:29 MDT - Msg ID: 63217)
What we can learn & facing the reality

What can we learn from the present debacle? We can learn much if we are perceptive and have free unfettered minds.

There are still people who believe that gold is not manipulated, that the financial markets are not manipulated - and I also understand there is a 'flat earth' society who believe that it being round is an optical, or some other, illusion.

We are all witnessing, at this moment, one of the greatest manipulations in history.

Leaders of 'fringe' nations are being brought 'on board' . Sorry, replace the word 'brought' with ''bought'. They are being 'manipulated' by money, concessions, promises, and fear.

For example (one tiny one). It was announced to the world that this is NOT a fight by the West against the East, or one religion against another. Bin Laden and the like are more of a threat to Middle East regimes as he is to the West, so we are really doing it for all for them. How altruistic of us.

But the announcement, in principle, is correct. Those Middle East regimes are western puppets who enjoy being honorary members of the 'elite' western club in return for keeping their populations from demanding the fruits of their natural resources so that the Western powers can project the wonders of our system, though displaying, in its extremes, sickening luxury while millions starve.

We have witnessed how a US president, a position which (to me falsely) is proclaimsed as being the seat of the most powerful man in the world. (We are expected to overlook such as Greenspan and those behind him). Yet, a president, the man with his finger on the button of the mightiest arsenal of devastating weaponry ever devised by man, was taken out in the prime of his life by a few centimetres of lead, by someone he never saw.

History has a record of Goliaths being humbled by Davids. You can have Star Wars. You can ring your country with an expensive missile defence systems - using money that could be used for health and eradication of poverty. You can pour money into tanks and sophisticated stealth planes. BUT! One tiny little germ you can't see can wipe out millions. It can be spread by someone who is prepared to die himself because he sees injustice, and has nothing himself to lose because he's at the bottom of the pile.

This whole business, as in the past, is about preserving the status quo of keeping power in the hands of the 'elite', but in doing so it is now eroding even in our society that buffer zone we call the middle class. To quote a clich� - the rich are getting richer, and the poor getting poorer,and greater in number. The masses are being drugged by visual media, metaphorically, and by heroine and the like, literally.

Why could not not such a coalition we are now able to muster, have been formed long ago, with the harnessing of the US, and others military might with one purpose - to eradicate the scourge of drugs throughout the world. Well, I know why, and so should you.

The market capitalisation of the world's goldmining industry is about $35 billion. There is a store of $20 billion (street value) of heroine and opium in 'Northern' Afghanistan - you know, held by the ones on our side. Now, have you some idea of one of the main issues we are interested in Afghanistan. Most of the heroine on the UK streets comes from Afghanistan.

Gold is the only 'real' money because it is the only commodity that has ALL the qualities in the right proportions to fulfil that role. Now, let me qualify. It is the only real money of the elite. They control it, it is their preserve. It will fall when they dictate. it will be contained when they dictate, and it will rise when they dictate. If you think otherwise then go and spend your time reading a Harry Potter book, you are wasting your time with gold.

The whole world, never mind the gold business is manipulated. And it gets easier for them to do it by the day. We are so easily deflected in our thinking - and, as a man thinketh, so is he.

What can we, you and I, do if all this is as I have set out so VERY briefly for a complex subject? Well, I know from the evidence around me that God made all life to survive. That is he gave us free thought, and the instinct for survival.

We can do what the elite have been doing for centuries. We can have ourselves an agenda of where we want to go. We can concentrate our efforts to get there. We can face the reality of this world - the good, the bad, and the ugly. We can turn the negatives that come up, into positives.

Money, will never stop flowing. Stand on the bridge, throw a pooh-stick in the water if you are not sure which way it is flowing, then go with the flow. Keep an eye on those beavers up river building a dam. If there is heavy rainfall, the river is going to flow faster and perhaps flood. If there is a drought, the river is going to slow and the bottom will show.

If there is a long drought, then move to some place where the climate is more congenial. That is the art of survival, and you were made to survive..

Fortunes were lost in the great depression, but, paradoxically, many of the greatest fortunes were made.

To show I am a mere human with all the failings of the species - I am just so pleased that my Maker put me on the 'winning side' (so far).

I leave you with - ' an open book is useless without an open mind' (Panda)
Spartacus
(10/09/2001; 05:35:34 MDT - Msg ID: 63218)
Debt Service
http://www.mises.com/fullarticle.asp?control=795&month=37&title=The+Dam+Breaks+&id=37
....Banks are made flush with reserves just as they find that, in a time of business retrenchment, there is less natural demand for the credit they are now empowered to create. Those who do want money most often are not those with credible plans for expansion, but rather those struggling to survive the misallocations into which they have been deceived during the distortions of the Boom. With falling revenues and over-geared balance sheets, the squeeze is obviously on. But if banks can lend these companies the money to service their own debts, rolling both interest and principal up into fresh credits at the new, artificially lowered short rates, the crunch may be postponed for a considerable time.....

Spartacus: Postponed? Yes. But not for a considerable time. As FOA said " Clearly, the coming drastic constriction in dollar financial trade will trigger a super "print press" response from the Fed. They won't be adding reserves to the banking system in the future; rather buying any and all debts from anyone that needs fresh cash. "



Black Blade
(10/09/2001; 05:48:12 MDT - Msg ID: 63219)
OPEC Moving Toward Output Cut
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/011009/business_energy_opec_reduction_dc_2.html
Snippit:

DUBAI (Reuters) - Momentum is building within OPEC for a supply cut of 700,000 to one million barrels per day (bpd) to boost sagging oil prices, but the timing for any reduction has not been decided, a Gulf source said on Tuesday. ``There is a movement (in OPEC) for a cut,'' the Gulf source told Reuters, adding that oil ministers were in the midst of consultations. ``Consensus is starting to build for a reduction of between 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) to one million bpd.'' The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries wants ultimately to restore prices to a $25 per barrel target for its basket of seven crude oils.

Black Blade: The only opposition to production cuts appears to be Saudi and they are only one vote. The possibility of more terrorists activities and war spreading beyond Afghanistan into the ME is very real. We live in "Interesting Times"
Mr Gresham
(10/09/2001; 06:07:04 MDT - Msg ID: 63220)
Sean Corrigan
http://www.prudentbear.com/guest.htmCorrigan gives a little more of the mechanics behind the deterioration of the banking system resulting from easy Fed money... (I always have trouble loading his .pdf newsletters from his .uk website -- don't know why -- so it's nice when I find them in regular html form elsewhere.)
Black Blade
(10/09/2001; 06:08:53 MDT - Msg ID: 63221)
Stocks losing safety net of buybacks
http://www.usatoday.com/money/stocks/2001-10-09-buybacks.htm
Snippit:

NEW YORK - The flurry of stock buyback announcements made by U.S. firms after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks has slowed sharply, suggesting the potential buying power that could prop up stock prices if panic selling resumes is drying up.

Black Blade: I had said that this would happen when the SEC made the rules changes. Corporations are strapped for cash. This week we shall see more evidence as corporate losses (earnings?) are reported. Good time to add some PM insurance to the investment portfolio.
Black Blade
(10/09/2001; 06:21:19 MDT - Msg ID: 63222)
Loose Lips Won't Sink Paul O'Neill
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/oct2001/nf2001109_3055.htm
Snippit:

Capital insiders have begun playing a new parlor game: Guess how long it'll be before Treasury Secretary Paul H. O'Neill is out the door. Among the Beltway cognoscenti, the former Alcoa CEO is perceived to be a bit of a flake, and the scuttlebutt says he has lost the confidence of both Congress and his own President. The evidence? O'Neill didn't attend a couple of key Capitol Hill meetings recently, where lawmakers met with Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and former Clinton Treasury Secretary Bob Rubin. This was seen as a signal that ex-Treasury boss Rubin somehow has more clout than O'Neill

Black Blade: Interesting rumors. I do disagree with O'Neill's strong US Dollar policy for obvious reasons.
Black Blade
(10/09/2001; 06:33:22 MDT - Msg ID: 63223)
FEDS KEEPING A SHARP EYE ON WALL ST. - PPT ARTICLE
http://www.nypost.com/business/5934.htm
Snippit:

Fortunately, there are also the covert ways of keeping Wall Street from inadvertently creating a bigger national crisis than we already have. Washington can use friends on Wall Street to buy stocks - especially stock futures contracts - if the selling pressure gets unreasonable brutal. The system works easily and well.

In order not to get itself into a squabble over whether it is the role of government to protect the financial markets in times of national emergency, the Treasury and the Federal Reserve can simply indemnify Wall Street firms against losses if these brokerages are willing to put their own capital at risk in a risky market.

This is wink-and-nod stuff.

A firm such as Goldman Sachs, for instance, would make a concerted effort to purchase futures contracts at a time when there is understandably little overall interest in buying the stocks of companies that may have their earnings gutted because of war. In return, Goldman would get a most-favored brokerage firm status in the future as far as, say, handling government securities transactions. Several major firms would gladly go for that deal.

I mentioned Goldman Sachs for a reason. Its former chairman, Robert Rubin, was Treasury Secretary in the Clinton Administration, and he seems to have been brought out of the bullpen in recent weeks by the Bush Administration. And this definitely is a save situation for Rubin.


Black Blade: Good article that alludes to how Washington and Wall Street "Rig" the markets. The author John Crudele obviously is referring to the president's Working Group on Financial Markets (aka PPT). Hey, one hand greases the other.
Leigh
(10/09/2001; 06:43:25 MDT - Msg ID: 63224)
Buy Now, Buy Cheap?
I'm going to throw an idea out just in case anyone wants to pursue it. Is it possible that pundits who are encouraging consumers to spend are actually doing them a favor? If it's true that inflation is going to be picking up in the near future, and possibly the dollar will be devalued, isn't it really the WISE thing to do our spending now?

Of course people like Mr. McTeer ("let's all hold hands and buy an SUV") have a vested interest in making sure we spend our money, but maybe in a roundabout way their advice is very sensible.

Clint H
(10/09/2001; 07:14:29 MDT - Msg ID: 63225)
mhchuck (- usagold.com msg#: 63204)
You say,
-----As to those here who would like to see the price of gold freely float/rise to its fair value level to balance physical supply and demand. Me too! Whatever that value is, it is then I would like to see gold reinstated to the historic role it has performed so well for thousands of years.------


mhchuck
I think you have the answer in what you stated above. However, I do not understand gold being reinstated to it's historic role. Do you think some country (USA?) then locks in the price forever once the balance is reached? The USA did that before and lost over half of the gold reserves.
What if we just reach the balance and then the citizens of every country can measure the performance of their country's currency to a world standard, "free gold?"


Mr Gresham
(10/09/2001; 07:21:38 MDT - Msg ID: 63226)
Randy: Euro's franchise
That was a nice answer yesterday.

One of the difficult things about our conversations here is that we are not present face-to-face in a room; thus, we cannot see who is "in the room" listening (reading) to what at any one time. We don't know who has skipped or merely skimmed that day's offerings, and so we cobble along together in a new medium, loosely accumulating and sharing knowledge (or opinion, or speculation still subject to verification.)

Then there is the HOF and Gilded Opinion, which I visit too infrequently and am always shocked how much more they bring me each time I revisit, showing how I've grown with time in some of my understandings.

But then there is also the perilous field of memory, where I may have asked questions before, read or not read someone's answer to them, and either way I just plain do not have anything stuck up there in graymatter-land about that today. Mea culpa, but that's where I am. (Of course, if you happen to re-answer some of my curiosities, there are always the NEW readers who are checking in for their first time on it, and might have had similar questions. And pointing back to earlier answers helps, too.)

Obviously, FOA's and Another's offerings are one of the unique features of MK's site. I have been interested in finding some parallel confirmations of the projections they make, especially in the murky and very-over-my-head world of international central banking. Like I said, Steven Solomon is the ONLY book I have found on the subject, and he skips over gold pretty thoroughly.

I mentioned that FOA doesn't do much in the way of statistics -- something which occasionally helps me grasp the magnitude of financial movements. Have we got a handle, for example, on just HOW the increased demand for trade settlement digital currency has increased the "latency" of dollar amounts being held "overnight" in trading accounts, thus absorbing the "already inflated" amounts of dollars created since 1971?

(This question seems to me something outside of the various M's, like M3, etc., but with some overlap of course. "International M-3"? Probably as hard to pin down, too. But the ballooning of pure currency speculation volumes IS something that the international banking statistics do admit to. This would of course absorb a greater number of dollars (and other fiats), not the same multiple, but "how much more?" would be my question.)

And, as to the Euro-makers long-term plan, which has led to such actions as _supporting_ (!) the dollar with gold sales in order to keep alive the very existence of the franchise for an international reserve fiat currency, which they hope to benefit from as per Mundell's writings. Have they revealed their thoughts in any writings perhaps outside the ECB's site? Early documents of discussion or persuasion; papers from conferences? Or were these all sent down the memory hole once Euro implementation was in sight, not wanting to aggravate relations with the US while it played its hand differently?

Did they just get together at conferences with Mundell and others as speakers in general terms to set the tone, and then retire to "private conversations" as to what the situation vis-a-vis the US would be? This is, of course, how central bankers operate (and appropriately so in most cases, given their influence over markets).

It just seems that a strategy of this magnitude, with the additional perturbances FOA brings us awareness of, would have left some "footprints" on its own Trail, doesn't it?

Relative to gold, it is also a point of curiosity that they would be so certain of their success as a franchise, and of the re-valuation upward of their gold reserves, to whatever end as a "suggested" several-orders-removed backing to their fiat, that they would be willing to "write-off" their dollar reserves, and that they would be so careful not to offend the US by not reducing the unneeded reserves at this time.

Of course, it is a complete picture, if they really see the long-term "franchise" of being the world's well-managed reserve fiat currency as being so "profitable", to do all these things makes sense. That is why we read FOA: his picture is complete. And it is new territory for us, which contradicts some of our earlier economic learnings. How better to learn?

Of course, FOA's time horizon is a long one, both in his learning over decades past, and perhaps looking ahead to the Euro's role. So for us to grasp these changes in a year or two on the Trail might be doing pretty well, eh?

Randy, I think it is very much our sense of SECURITY as gold-holders that allows us to venture our curiosity forward to learn more about this part of the world around us. Maybe we are lured by the "ten-bagger" prospects, or by our love of learning, don't know which. I'll settle for either, but as you said, "Sometimes in life, good people are dealt some really nice hands."
uponroof
(10/09/2001; 07:22:21 MDT - Msg ID: 63227)
Measuring the enemy
As we brace ourselves for the inevitable we look to gauge the inevitable impact. Unfortunately we are left with little to go on. On the one hand these terrorists pulled off a fairly sophisticated operation in timing multiple hijackings and executing their suicidal plans.

On the other hand, these guys wrapping their genitals in toilet paper, and wearing multiple layers of underware is not exactly evidence of intelligence.

Not in regards that they believe they will be greeted by 70 virgins to service them, and should protect themselves accordingly....that's their beleif and they are welcome to it. I am not questioning that.

My question is, why not wear a simple kevlar plastic 'cup' that even grade school athletes know enough to wear to ward off misguided balls, elbows, feet, etc.

Are the virgins incapable of removing these western gadgets? Are these cups too advanced to understand? Are they considered part of our culture and therefore poisonous western medicine?

Or are they concerned that the heat of the explosion, as their limbs are vaporized and scattered to the wind might create a melted plastic lump that all 70 nimble virgins could never separate from their impacted jewells?

For that matter, why doesn't Bin Laden spend some R and D money on manufacturing the very best titanium heat resistant cups for his boys?

I just don't get it.

Would someone familiar with this please explain why cotton underwear (and is it jockey or boxer?) along with toilet paper are the protection of choice?
Clint H
(10/09/2001; 07:40:39 MDT - Msg ID: 63228)
Leigh msg#: 63224)
Buy Now, Buy Cheap?

Leigh
You say,

----Of course people like Mr. McTeer ("let's all hold hands and buy an SUV") have a vested interest in making sure we spend our money, but maybe in a roundabout way their advice is very sensible.----

I wonder how many people feel as I do. Daily necessities will go up in price because the stores must replace
the inventory on a daily basis at ever increasing
prices. Things that are dead inventory or surplus will decline in price. How many SUVs will be parked on repo lots waiting for someone with a little cash to make an offer.

How many familles will go from five cars to one or two? How many familles will need to sell the second home in the country in order to pay the mortgage on the primary home?
How many tractors, four wheelers, campers, boats etc. will be sold to make the next house payment?
Do we wait or buy now? I wish I knew.

Cavan Man
(10/09/2001; 07:53:12 MDT - Msg ID: 63229)
uponroof
Cheers!
BR549
(10/09/2001; 08:25:49 MDT - Msg ID: 63230)
"Thus, all other types of extremities such as hostage taking, hijacking and planting bombs in public places, are clearly forbidden in Islam. "
http://thetruereligion.org/terror.htmuponroof---

"So, for example what is the end of a suicide bomber in Palestine?, a leg here, an arm there. Massive retaliation by the Israeli's in the West Bank and Gaza. More Muslims killed and persecuted. How can we be delighted with such an end? What really hammers the final nail in the coffin of this act, is that it is suicide; something which is clearly forbidden in Islam. The Messenger of Allah (saws) said:

"He who kills himself with anything, Allah will torment him with that in the fire of Hell" [8]

Some are under the misconception that by killing oneself for an Islamic cause, one commits an act which deserves Paradise. Once when a man killed himself, the Prophet (saws) said: "He is a dweller of the Fire". When the people were surprised at this, the Prophet (saws) said:

"A person performs the deeds which to the people appears to be the deeds befitting the dweller of Paradise, but he is in fact one of the dwellers of the Fire" [9]

The taking of ones life which Allah has given as a trust to the human, is a great sin. Likewise the taking of other lives (which is so often the case with suicide bombing) is also forbidden, as human life is indeed precious:

"...If anyone killed a person not in retaliation for murder or to spread mischief in the land, it would be as if he killed the whole of mankind. And (likewise) if anyone saved a life, it would be as if he saved the whole of mankind"
(Surah Al-Maaida 5:32)"


According to this link, the suicide bombers are not religious and therefore the implication is they are cowards who will burn in hell. I hope there are 19 of them already there.

FWIW-

BR549
Gandalf the White
(10/09/2001; 08:45:12 MDT - Msg ID: 63231)
uponroof (10/9/01; 07:22:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 63227)
Really on subject -- YES?
Like CM says -- "Cheers"!
<;-(
Gandalf the White
(10/09/2001; 08:49:21 MDT - Msg ID: 63232)
BR549 (10/9/01; 08:25:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 63230)
AND I too thought that BR549 HAD already had SAID his "last WORD"! Seems as though he can not understand a SUBJECT not needed on this GOLD Forum! ----BYE!---
<;-(
uponroof
(10/09/2001; 09:19:59 MDT - Msg ID: 63233)
Gandalf the White/Mr Gresham
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/corrigan/corrigan100501.htmlGandalf the White

You are absolutely correct. I will not bore you any further by explaining the results of my experiment in which I, with much struggle (and pain), pulled on 14 pairs of underwear, then a pair of pants. hint: anyone walking around with this 'protection' will be easy to spot. While this is perhaps off topic, it may in fact save lives. If you see anyone walking about with crossed eyes, in much pain, and with the appearance of retaining water, consider them possible terrorists. Not another word, I promise.

Mr Gresham RE: (10/9/01; 06:07:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 63220) Sean Corrigan.
Sir.....I have noticed that 321gold covers Mr Corrigans work on a regular basis. Perhaps check out the link above every couple of days for his work. They also do a fine job of searching out all gold related articles. Sorry if this is already understood.

Belgian
(10/09/2001; 10:02:17 MDT - Msg ID: 63234)
3 excellent postings....
Pandagold #63217 - AEL #63187/88 - Crashpad #63154
All 3 converging and very relevant about Gold ! Thank you Sirs !
Gold Trail Update
(10/09/2001; 10:05:49 MDT - Msg ID: 63235)
The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated
The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.
CoBra(too)
(10/09/2001; 11:30:26 MDT - Msg ID: 63236)
@FOA, MK and the rest of us Bugs -

... As all of us (at least) feel, we've understood the trail and have been following the footsteps of giants, and are also understanding the inherent misacollation of funds, created from hot air, to paper over all in-equilibri-(ums) ae - can you say bubbles, or rather balloons floating on same - the reality is - at least in my view - that the US$-Hegemony has corrupted the rest of the world.

All real and eternally true weights and measures have been abandonded to the banality of the BLS, spewing out statistical data, based on paper. The same base, which has debased the economy of 80% of the world population, since the 20% needed their own $ measure - not for pleasure - , though to re-conolize the globe towards their own concept of a non-inflationary economy - some would call it mastery of usury by covert profligacy.

... and at the end of this mistery - stands misery for
all. Human rights, freedom and liberty vanishing into the folds of history ...

See u there too - cb2


BR549
(10/09/2001; 11:43:47 MDT - Msg ID: 63237)
uponroof (msg#: 63233)----
CHEERS!

BR549
And�ril
(10/09/2001; 12:15:09 MDT - Msg ID: 63238)
Razor sharp clarity from the Gold Trail cuts through haze like the "Flame of the West"
http://www.usagold.com/goldTrail/default.html"While so many of our gold bulls salivate at the prospects of some player calling for delivery and driving the gold derivatives market to the moon; it ain't gona happen! Our world of dollar based gold derivatives has grown so large and become so integrated into supporting (hedging) international dollar assets, the central banks will band together to crush any delivery drive."

"This is in the ECBs intrest as I will explain in a moment."

"If some big player said he was going to take 100 million ozs out of the paper gold market, we would just order him to trade out for liquidation only and go to the cash market to buy his gold. Don't think I'm confusing Comex positions and their rules with the rest of the world gold market. The controlling governments, who's domain Bullion Banks reside in, would could and would force those holders of bank busting positions to simply cash out, also, for the good of their system."

"By the way; not only does a liquidation market send baby gold bulls running to sell, also, the BBs would be selling enough additional paper to temporally send gold down $100 bucks so our boy would trade out with a little less cash (smile). Then he would find an opposite "premium" spike in the cash markets, waiting for his order."

"I hope my little dose of reality drives some sense into our gold community."

"Only now are we coming to a point where theory meets practice as Alan Greenspan now is and must hit the presses. This forced printing inflation, currently happening, is the very precursor to a lower dollar exchange rate, rising real price inflation and the very first destructive test of paper gold derivative hedges. As price inflation rises the US will protect its own banks and the short paper gold portion of these positions they created. They will sell all the paper gold they can in order to stop these hedging positions from functioning and breaking their writers."

****** "the leverage today will be in a physical gold position, not any other form of gold ownership. By accumulating physical gold today, we are truly walking in the footsteps of giants; advancing with them as they work thru this singular, long term political move."******

"I also fully well expect that most world gold mine production will be forced to ship gold into the leftovers of the dollar cash settlement paper market until the Bullion Banking system is made whole on their physical side."

"A US workout using gold industry profits could be done via "windfall tax legislation", plain tax or part of any variety of emergency financial arrangement."

Thank you, FOA! You are good company for a long ride under darkening skies... toward better days.

+-(====>
BR549
(10/09/2001; 12:45:43 MDT - Msg ID: 63239)
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Gold futures, which has gained more than $10 an ounce since before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, fell back under $290 Tuesday. Analysts said that U.S. retaliation had been factored into prices.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?column=Metals+Stocks&siteid=mktw""U.S. military retaliation was mostly factored into gold prices, but any backlash from terrorists we believe would not be," cautioned David Meger, a gold analyst at Alaron.com in Chicago. The U.S. began air strikes on Afghanistan Sunday for harboring terrorist suspect Osama bin Laden. "

"The current demand for bullion doesn't seem to justify higher prices but if tensions escalate, gold could finally trade above $300.00 as further safe haven buying will take place," said PeakTrading.com analyst Charles Nedoss."



Gold futures falls and bombing factored into prices. No, it can't be. What has terrorism, religion, and world politics got to do with the POG?

BR549
uponroof
(10/09/2001; 12:45:50 MDT - Msg ID: 63240)
BR549
CHEERS!How are you my friend?

Do you get the impression that some folks here are discussing the deep and hidden meanings of gold vs paper as a means of escaping crisis reality?

I love gold and silver and enjoy the far reaching extrapolations here that accurrately shed light on the world's complex financial situation. The just posted words of Anduril regarding inflation and physical gold, via Gold Trail, are indeed like a brite light in the dark and much appreciated.

I also would like to continue sucking air and avoid 'room temperature' status for as long as possible.

This current crisis climate, although not directly attached to gold, will directly affect the price of gold and more importantly who will be left alive to hopefully enjoy it.

So while we wax eloquently on the hypothetical reasons behind financial actions and reactions, I ask the forum to please forgive the occasional detours through the real world.

There are IMHO situations outside of pure financial matters that deserve discussion, like it or not. Pandagold offered an excellent example of this, as pointed out by the Belgian (10/9/01; 05:03:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 63217).

I will endeavor weave gold into thoughts so as to not offend any of those wholly focused on nothing but gold at this incredible time in history (which IMHO demands the leeway the moderator has apparently given it).

.02
Mr Gresham
(10/09/2001; 12:54:04 MDT - Msg ID: 63241)
Trail Guide
Each time you come at it, you slice away a little bit more of the fog around "the story", and reveal another of the little pieces I was wondering about (or hadn't quite gotten to wondering about, yet). Congratulations on another fine write!
Mr Gresham
(10/09/2001; 13:14:50 MDT - Msg ID: 63242)
Pandagold
Your eloquence is the equal of the topic that towers behind your words: Justice.

The most arguably eloquent American of our time, Martin Luther King, Jr., spoke: "The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice."

Joni Mitchell sang: ..."Justice -- or 'just ice'? -- governed by greed and lust. Just the strong doing what they can; the weak suffering what they must."

Was it my T.H. White reading in high school? (For which I am overdue for a re-reading.) Merlin led Arthur to attempt to reverse the order of the day: from Might Makes Right, into Might for Right.

That is something of the tarnished ideal many of us hold for our country, at which it has occasionally shown some successes.

Are the Muslims all now our implacable foes, unto the seventh generation ahead? My grandchildren will live in the 22nd century. If not the Muslims, then it will be the Chinese, or some other group taking its turn on the Wheel of Empire, under whose bootheels they will suffer. No missiles will protect them from this.

But only an Empire at its zenith can play Arthur, and stop the Wheel. Or at least make the credible attempt. In my view, only pragmatic, for the downward course is certain; why not spend the last of its Superpower energies on cushioning its own fall into old age in a gentler world ahead?

Impossible? Then we are prisoners of the histories we read; not students. Welcome back, my friend.
Mr Gresham
(10/09/2001; 13:17:57 MDT - Msg ID: 63243)
Arthur
P.S. In the end, at his death, Arthur wished he had tried to abolish Might, instead of harnessing it. Are we that much wiser, in this time?
Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD
(10/09/2001; 14:09:34 MDT - Msg ID: 63244)
Don't be fooled by inflatable paper substitutes!
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

sovereigns
Gold Sovereigns Today!

Because you haven't heard the phrase "strong dollar policy" for awhile.

While the Treasury Department and Administration remains mum on the issue, the latest rate cut (to 2.5%) by the Federal Reserve tells the score loud and clear. And given the dollar's legacy position as a reserve asset held throughout the world, these are now the things that financial crisis and hyperinflations are made of.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

BR549
(10/09/2001; 14:10:45 MDT - Msg ID: 63245)
uponroof---

I am LOL at some of your previous postings as "pure wit" and a welcome diversion from the realities of this first economic and shooting war of the 21st Century. Laser guided bombs are accurate within feet of their targets and laser guided economic warfare against terrorism is even more precise. The value and POG does not take place in a vacuum.

I draw a line in the sand between the manipulations of fiat by banksters, the protection of these same banksters by the Fed, the manipulations and future investment value of the POG, protection and concern about the removal of our rights, et al,

vs. anti-Americanism that sometimes is posted here and on other sites. There is quite a difference.

We both stick to the "subject" more than we stray but a little interesting news (or humor) is welcomed every now and then. Over half of the posts of the newshounds here would not qualify for "the subject" according to some. And although I agree that the "bonepile" is important, if that was determined not to have anything with the "subject" then this percentage would be even less. There are many sites, some of which we have migrated from, that welcome these anti-American posters with open arms. I left my boat down by the river with the oars in it.

"Nothing to do with Gold-" But the funniest thing that I have seen today was live on MSNBC where a reporter was pinned down on a roof deep in Northern Afghanistan with shots being fired at him. As he was trying to describe what was happening about the source of the gunfire when the NY host asked him to hold his thoughts while they ran some commercials.

So uponroof--hang in there my friend. There are indeed some great posters and interesting ideas on this site. Yours are among the best.

@AllanC-To my favorite liberal. Don't let them "run you off" and silence your great ideas. Let's hear from you on any subject that you feel is important.

Warmest Regards,

BR549
Belgian
(10/09/2001; 14:32:36 MDT - Msg ID: 63246)
Gold's paper market....
Coming back to a very old question, after having understood (a bit more) the Why and How of the Big Paper Dollar Insurance aspect of it :
The main reason why we (I) do accumulate Physical Gold in possession on the cash-market (!) (CPM), is that we suppose to understand where and how the gold-drama might end with the highest probability. And indeed, individuals are not going to move the Gold-Market with their coins. But we are most definitely not alone in our understanding of what is evolving. Their must certainly be other wealth accumulators out there. And it is not that difficult to understand that these "accumulators" are acting with the outmost precision and care in their accumulation program(s) at ever lower rock-bottom prices. But what about the undisciplined financial pirates ? Dollar-holders, who wish to have innocent sleeps and want a waterproof transfer of their accumulated wealth with a *physical gold* insurance polis.

Here I am again with the 1 million individuals who spend half their interest rates revenue on capital, on 1 Kg of Physical Gold, each year. Minus 1.000 tonnes a year in private hands. I got used to talk to myself for extended periods, and up until now, not a single Gold authority (?) wanted to say that this suggestion is as idiot as can be.

Now, at the Denver reunion, Chris Thompson CEO-Gold Fields, suggests that Gold, should go private. Toqueville, recently confirmed that 3% goldmine-shares in portfolio is OK.

Are we the only ones that are convinced of, the dollar, being at the end of its lifetime, sooner rather than much later ? And are we the only ones convinced that 288,25$/oz is an obscene valuation. Thus, I still do have a minor technical problem with the discribed element, outside the paper story. Any help available ? TIA.
site steward
(10/09/2001; 14:38:13 MDT - Msg ID: 63247)
Contests and Silver incentives
You'll all be glad to know we are narrowing down our final choices for the winner of the latest essay contest on whether or not the world has changed as of 9/11.

In the meanwhile, I'd like to thank the following first time posters for sending the required e-mail to claim their Silver Eagle incentives. (Marie tells me that the silver is currently being packaged for shipment. (How exciting!))

Beer Man
Mikal
Nuebie
Goldfinger2
Maiden Fan
DOCDPB
cyclist
achilles
goldroadlx7
Wky_Woodsman

If you were a first-time poster during the Sept 24-30 contest period, but do not see your name on this list, please review this following excerpt from the original contest announcement and then take the appropriate action.

I'm looking forward to hearing from you -- your silver awaits!
- - - - -
""Each first-time poster -- either in the price guessing contest or the posting contest -- will receive a U.S. Silver Eagle. If you are a first time poster, to claim your metal you must e-mail the sitemaster@usagold.com notice that you are such. Please do not try to slip one by us, each claim will be checked. We very much encourage our lurkers to take this as an opportunity to participate in the discussion. Silver has motivated many of our best posters to post the first time. May it motivate you.""

[And providing verification of your current mailing address is very helpful to me, too! Thanks!]

R.
Gold Trail Update
(10/09/2001; 14:55:33 MDT - Msg ID: 63248)
The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated
The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.
Netking
(10/09/2001; 14:56:27 MDT - Msg ID: 63249)
Iraq Prepares
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0,,2001350003-2001351538,00.htmlThe people of Iraq will now be bracing & preparing for the inevitable.

Iraq will however be looking at some of their neighbours such as Syria, Iran & Saudi Arabia knowing that they will in all likelihood be "spared" for various reasons outside of terror sponsorship ones.

* Syria - Just made the UN Security council, hey congratulations guys & what a prolific first motion from the brotherhood for Israel to be expelled from the Terror Coalition. But can the "Terror Terminators" ask for permission from the U.N. to drop nuclear tipped "bunker busters" on one of their own 'Security Council' members, . . . forget Syria guys.

* Iran - Too strong, leave 'em

*Saudi - Our friend, our oil

Yep, Looks like all those assets will be moving Iraq's way soon, the other main players may feel uneasy, but "should" be left alone. . .
slingshot
(10/09/2001; 15:12:17 MDT - Msg ID: 63250)
For whats it Worth
Went by the coin/bullion dealer to see what was in the display. Silver bullion, Zip. Except for those high price
commens. As for Gold he just receive some and maybe I can get one on payday.
Slingshot
Mr Gresham
(10/09/2001; 15:32:13 MDT - Msg ID: 63251)
Trail Guide
When you're blazing a Trail through thick undergrowth, don't expect it to look like a Superhighway in an afternoon. We don't. We see one man hard at work, doing his best at trailblazing, even planting a few seeds of new trees along the way.

Trying for awhile to see the world through your eyes and experience -- that's our job -- and who's to say your first drafts aren't as helpful as the ones you take time when you can to polish so well?

When you're writing to clarify a muddy (and futuristic) picture, it's not how perfectly you've polished your pages, it's what keys you turn in the readers' mind that counts, and that is a mostly unpredictable process. Your energy and enthusiasm carry much of the effect, I believe, so keep on belting 'em out the way you do.
BR549
(10/09/2001; 15:48:41 MDT - Msg ID: 63252)
The Austrian's Theory of Economic Flows proves to be right again
http://www.qjae.org/qjaecurrent.asp
The bailout of the airlines and other rocketic spending "undermine the way that the capitalist system is supposed to function". Capitalism works on a free market P&L System that returns marginally higher profits correlated to the amount of risk incurred. If the risk taken is too high then the opposite resulting losses will occur. Given that the economy was slowly winding down without 911, then the Fed and government spending introducing massive injections of liquidity was a remedy after 911 that was touted as a quick fix to get the US economy moving again.

As accurately prognosticated in the Spring of this year according to: "Financial Cycles, Business Activity, and the Stock Market by Antony P. Mueller---"The monetary theory of the business cycle in the tradition of Austrian economics holds that trade cycles result from excessive growth of circulating credit, which affects the real economy, leading to unsustainable investment projects that get corrected in a recession when credit contraction occurs. Government and monetary authorities who systematically practice a policy of stabilizing financial assets and business activities by a policy of easy money and bailouts expose individual economic agents to a learning process of diminishing risk perception. Moral hazard as its consequence brings forth more credit growth. While, in the short run at least, these policies may stimulate economic activity, they put the economy on a path to more malinvestment in the long run. With governments and monetary authorities providing safety nets, a hideous form of central planning is being installed, causing the spread of soft-budget constraints and the misallocation of capital."


If one looks at the latest M3 graphics, we have arrived at the excessive credit growth predicted earlier.

These "safety nets" to eliminate risk have now been brought forth by the government in a last ditch effort to stimulate the recession and help the dollar stay afloat in the world economy. Credit contraction has not taken place according to the latest statistics and easy money policies so far have not worked either in the US or Japan. Maybe the war economy will provide the stimulus needed to prevent the world depression that is so ominous. Massive inflation will be the result and the only sure "hedge" against disaster for us individuals will be the accumulation of non-paper Gold.

BR549
site steward
(10/09/2001; 16:07:29 MDT - Msg ID: 63253)
Past week, Eurosystem keeps gold; dumps paper
The latest release of consolidated Eurosystem activities as revealed by the weekly financial statement issued by the European Central Bank on behalf of the member central banks reveals that the net position in foreign currencies was drawn down by EUR 100 million in value to EUR 258.5 billion held in foreign paper.

The value of reserve assets in the form of gold and gold receivables held steady at EUR 128.236 billion (now being valued throughout this fourth quarter at EUR 318.53 per ounce).

R.
Rockgrabber
(10/09/2001; 16:15:31 MDT - Msg ID: 63254)
Trail Guide, yes it is sinking in.
Your message is loud and clear my freind. You make for a clear understanding of an otherwise very UNclear arena. I lost lots of my hard earned money in gold options in 99 and the beggining of 2000. All the while I had been reading your posts, wonderring. No longer do I wonder. Now I spend my hard earned money (as a commercial fisherman I make) on real gold. You know what?? If I did not read and listen to what you have to say, I would be at this moment knee deep in paper gold again, confused as ever. Instead I sit with a smirk. Much obliged sir. Hope your garden is doing well. I spend much time in mine, ponderring your thoughts. Time well spent. Thank You.
Cavan Man
(10/09/2001; 16:18:54 MDT - Msg ID: 63255)
MOT Earnings
Q3 loss is $1.41 billion on 22% revenue decline
Skip
(10/09/2001; 16:50:14 MDT - Msg ID: 63256)
What's wrong with the metals markets?
Although I have lurked here almost since the start of this forum, I rarely post...but events of recent weeks have provoked some considerable thoughts.

FIRST, while people may debate over the degree of truth to GATA's claims of market manipulation, their insights regarding gold manipulation couldn't be more obvious now. Throughout history, GOLD has always been purchased during times of uncertainty...yet with the unbelievable worldwide uncertainty, gold gets slammed down today? ...and silver also gets slammed down?

SECOND, while such market manipulation seems more obvious than ever now, the very fact that the powers that be can still keep a lid on the metals prices makes me skeptical that we will ever see the POG rise in the near term. However, I hope that I'm wrong about this opinion...perhaps years of financial setbacks due to my belief in precious metals may have resulted in my being pessimistic.

Right now, I'm afraid to buy and I'm afraid to sell; so I'll keep what I have in both metals and gold stocks until market conditions have a more direct effect on precious metals.

Can anyone provide credible insight as to why we might finally be close to a good upward move in the metals?

--Skip

Interstate
(10/09/2001; 17:11:15 MDT - Msg ID: 63257)
@mhChuck
Thank you for responding to my comments. I took exceptiom because 1)I did not want you to think that we middle class did not make efforts to be informed and 2) because the paragraph was not, IMHO, consistent with the rest of your post.

I greatly admire anyone who thinks their own thoughts and not just follows blindly what someone else thinks. To me, you seem to be an independent thinker.
Warm regards, I.
site steward
(10/09/2001; 17:30:30 MDT - Msg ID: 63258)
Skip asks:
"Can anyone provide credible insight as to why we might finally be close to a good upward move in the metals?"

Well, I'd say this question comes with good timing on your part. It seems the shortest answer to this specific issue can be conveniently found in the few "site steward" posts offered yesterday, and also and the latest Gold Trail posts offered today.

Each strive to lay bare the change in the wind favoring gold BOTH on the social grassroots level (as always has been) AND on the political arena (as uniquely enabled by the particularly astute design/structure of the Euro currency within its associated banking system).

R.
Netking
(10/09/2001; 17:30:51 MDT - Msg ID: 63259)
Silver
"Fresh buying was responsible for the steady upticks in Comex silver, the bullion dealer said. He didn't regard current prices as high but as reasonable, compared with the cheap levels at which silver was trading before Sept. 11 Prospector's Kaplan agreed that silver was excessively cheap below $4.20 an ounce but suspected it might also be benefitting from anticipation of less available material in the near future.

"Eighty to ninety percent of the world's silver is produced as byproduct. As base metals (prices) go lower, it becomes more and more likely that some zinc mining, some copper mining will cease," Kaplan explained. "If that is the case, less silver will be produced. So there's an argument to be made that it's the decline of the base metals that has somewhat aided the silver market as well."
(Comment from silver investor)
CoBra(too)
(10/09/2001; 17:50:48 MDT - Msg ID: 63260)
Gold - Buy Up To Your Sleeping Level!
- Nice way to put the old adage - got stocks - sell down to your sleeping level!
Got -enough- au for sweet dreams? Cheers - cb2
slingshot
(10/09/2001; 18:08:11 MDT - Msg ID: 63261)
Skip msg# 63256
I hope this may be some credible insight. My 1oz worth.
I started to buy when Gold was at $300.00. At that time there was plenty to go round. Each time the price came down I would try to buy more with my alloted FIAT. Keeping a close eye on this forum and what was in my coin dealers display. Things were happening. At times there was plenty and others none. I assumed it was a squeeze. Supply was replenished and soon after another Squeeze. These squeezes are at the same time Gold dropped in price. The time between reorder to display for sale has exceded the normal 7-10 day wait. For me it was you snooze, you loose or the term supply and demand. Somebody is buying and I have been steady with my plan of accumulation. Its one thing to read about the supposed poor performance of gold and another to see it disappear from the display case.
Slingshot
Netking
(10/09/2001; 18:22:49 MDT - Msg ID: 63262)
Gold - the new bull market
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/thomson101101.htmlSnippet from William R. Thomson
". . . it is very likely that gold will begin to move aggressively higher . . ."
------------------------------------------------------------
". . . It is quite possible that Governments will continue to interfere in the gold market and not let it move higher in order to get the banks off the hook. Even attempts at re-nationalisation of gold, however unlikely, are not impossible under these circumstances. An important court case concerning government manipulation of the markets will be held in Boston on 5 November. If the judge allows the case to go to trial, then it is very likely that gold will begin to move aggressively higher.

The metal, if it can break free should move first to around $ 305 and then to around $ 340 at which massive resistance can be expected. We would not discount a possible move to $ 400 over the next six months if things continue to deteriorate globally and particularly if the dollar begins an expected slide lower.

Gold shares that have not been subject to manipulation have moved much further than the metal in the past years. The HUI index has moved from 36 to 72 since last November and looks higher to around 100 as the first stop. A move to 150 could be realised if gold moves towards $ 400. . . "
slingshot
(10/09/2001; 18:23:44 MDT - Msg ID: 63263)
Skip
In my discussions with my coin dealer. He only said how many gold coins he sold and not how many buyers. Does it matter if one person buys it all? To take it off the market. Or would it be better to have many one coin buyers. I like the second choice better.
Slingshot
auspec
(10/09/2001; 19:27:01 MDT - Msg ID: 63264)
David Guyatt's "Project Hammer"
http://www.deepblacklies.co.ukSlush funds
Black Gold
Drug money
Illegal weapons
Concealed international banking and finance
ESF
G7 Nation Banks
Trading programmes
Spooks
Trillions of $s
Royals
Black ops
The usual cast of characters

This is David Guyatt's {The Secret Gold treaty- Black Gold} latest work at his website under "The Project Hammer File".
It is not free, by the way, and will likely have sequels.
USAGOLD
(10/09/2001; 19:36:54 MDT - Msg ID: 63265)
Interstate. . . .
Just a short note of support to say that a little over a year ago I had a major remodel done to our old house in the city -- the lifestyle and location we prefer. As it happens in projects like this, I had the opportunity to have some very interesting conversations with a number of "subs" usually at the end of the day as they were doing their clean-ups and trying to get out the door. I not only enjoyed the conversations, I came away with a sense that there's not a heck of alot of difference in terms of work-attitude and life-concerns between our working class heroes and the businessmen and professional practitioners I deal with at Centennial Precious Metals on a regular basis.

That's the funny thing about it.

So often the press tries to drive a wedge between us and pit the middle class against the upper middle class, etc. My experience is that in reality there isn't enough of a difference to make a difference. Not only that, we have a great many so called "middle class" investors who work with CPM and myself directly in the fulfillment process for the gold part of their portfolio planning. I learned here too that the "working man" and the "professional man" have virtually the same concern and the same attitudes about the government, taxes, etc. As a matter of fact, I can say with complete confidence that the "subs" I talked to are every bit as articulate politically and economically as most of the professionals I've come in contact with, and no less willing to express their opinion.

I think part of the political problem in America is that we have allowed the political parties and the press to separate us and pit us against each other when, in reality, our concerns AND our politics are essentially the same.

There is one poster here with whom I have had this sort of discussion on more than one occasion. I believe he posts here as Only Child (??). Can't remember for sure. . . .But Terry A. if you're lurking maybe you might have something to say on this discussion.

I'll tell you one thing for sure, no matter what work we do, we can (and will) meet here as equals. . . .over gold. . .
Netking
(10/09/2001; 20:23:25 MDT - Msg ID: 63266)
Astute Bin Laden raises the stakes
http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,565768,00.htmlSnippet:
". . . on the streets there was a strong mood running in favour of Osama bin Laden, who is emerging as a much more formidable opponent than the US and Britain first believed. The US attacks on Afghanistan threaten to leave him more powerful than before. A widespread feeling among many Arabs is that he, rather than the US, is winning the war.
Bin Laden is successfully polarising opinion. He proved tactically astute on Sunday in releasing his video soon after the attack. His videotaped interview was designed to address the three main Arab grievances: the Israeli-Palestinian con flict; Iraqi sanctions; and the presence of US troops in Saudi Arabia. He also referred to America's atom bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki as an example of US "world crime".

It is risky to generalise too much, but there was repeated support in the Middle East yesterday for Bin Laden's portrayal of the conflict as a black-and-white one between the west and Islam. "It is clear that this war targets the Islamic and Muslim renaissance," Jamil Abu-Baker, a spokesman for the Muslim Brotherhood, the biggest opposition group in Jordan, said yesterday. . . "
Canuck
(10/09/2001; 20:27:42 MDT - Msg ID: 63267)
EuroLand
FOA states, "I also expect a European gold coin to become real usable legal tender (not a collector item) and be named the "EuroLand"."

Man I hope you are correct.
Canuck
(10/09/2001; 20:31:27 MDT - Msg ID: 63268)
?
I read FOA's statements to find hints of inside information and I believe the previous may be one of his strongest.

I hope someday we get to find out who the man is.
Simply Me
(10/09/2001; 20:39:24 MDT - Msg ID: 63269)
@Trail Guide
Please, don't hide! I'm on golden pins and needles awaiting your words. Each post makes the trail easier to see.

Nearly two years ago, I came to this forum to try to understand the role of gold in our economy because I could "feel" more than understand it's importance. Sometimes I felt really stupid for not understanding financial mechanisms like forward sales and delta hedging. Now I think that my simple thoughts and feelings have served me well, having never led me into the paper traps that have snared the sophisticated money. But, I would have lost hope before now (thinking I've never been good with money and probably had the wrong idea about gold, too) and abandoned my family's golden safety net prematurely if you hadn't popped in here once in a while to clear a little more of the trail.

I truly appreciate every one of your posts...edited to perfection, or not. It's the meat that is nourishing...not the gravy.
Thank you for all the time and effort you give to this forum.
simply me



PH in LA
(10/09/2001; 21:02:05 MDT - Msg ID: 63270)
A Modest Proposal
I know this is a gold forum but please allow me to post an idea in case the President or any of his advisors is lurking tonight.

Bush says that our war on terrorism is directed not only at the terrorists themselves but at all those who harbor them. At the risk of being called a hawk, let's ask ourselves what it means to "harbor" a terrorist. Doesn't it qualify as "harboring", aiding and abetting terrorism, the act of broadcasting throughout the arab and islamic world, a taped propaganda message made by O. bin Laden? We know which TV station it was, and presumably exactly where it is. Why allow this criminal maniac another opportunity to spew his hatred over the airwaves. The military says it is running out of targets? Fine! Let's take out the TV station that broadcast the bin Laden party line on Sunday. These demented, hate-filled propagandists want to declare (again) a jihad? Let's take them up on their childish fantasies. Abolish the TV station with a smart bomb. They want war? Let's not tie our hands behind our back like we have in the past.

And if the adolescent "holy warriors" of their childish "jijad" don't get the idea when their terrorist-coddling TV station disappears, we'll think of something else they need... Now where do you suppose they are getting all those turbans and white robes they all seem to wear?
Black Blade
(10/09/2001; 21:30:33 MDT - Msg ID: 63271)
Pacifist Training

What to do if you happen upon a peace rally by naive hemp-shirt-wearing college idiots, to teach them why force is sometimes needed:

1) Approach dumb rich ignorant student talking about "peace" and saying there should be, "no retaliation."

2) Engage in brief conversation, ask if military force is appropriate.

3) When he says "No," ask, "Why not?"

4) Wait until he says something to the effect of, "Because that would just cause more innocent deaths, which would be awful and we should not cause more violence."

5) When he's in mid sentence, punch him in the face as hard as you can.

6) When he gets back up to up to punch you, point out that it would be a mistake and contrary to his values to strike you, because that would, "be awful and he should not cause more violence."

7) Wait until he agrees that he has pledged not to commit additional violence.

8) Punch him in the face again, harder this time.

Repeat steps 5 through 8 until they understand that sometimes it is necessary to punch back.
FluorideCommie
(10/09/2001; 21:47:09 MDT - Msg ID: 63272)
HOW TO GENERATE PUBLIC ACCEPTANCE AND ENTHUSIASM FOR THE MASS SLAUGHTER THAT IS WAR:
HOW TO GENERATE PUBLIC ACCEPTANCE AND ENTHUSIASM FOR THE MASS SLAUGHTER THAT IS WAR:

"Why of course the people don't want war. Why should some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece? Naturally the common people don't want war: neither in Russia, nor in England, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy."

"All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in any country." HERMANN GOERING
goldfan
(10/09/2001; 21:53:19 MDT - Msg ID: 63273)
Site Steward re your (msg#: 63185)

Site Steward thanks for your elaboration of your thinking in your message 63185 to me. I have put together some quotes from my original message to mhchuck and some further thoughts.

me>>>>
There is no doubt gold will be a completely adequate way to maintain one's buying power amid the collapse of world economic trading patterns.
What other information do we need?"

Randy (msg#: 63185)>>>
The reason for the elaboration is this, as I see it. Without this view of the underlying structure and driving motivations among the managers of these currency blocks, you will probably perceive only a modest increase in the price of gold as you've indicated above -- sufficient to maintain current purchasing power when the dollar falls away.<<<

me>>>
In my thoughts is the idea that "gold maintains ones buyng power", because having say 10% of ones portfolio in physical gold, will protect the buying power of all 100% of that portfolio. which is something like what I take it you are saying below.<<<

Randy>>>
Although the nominal price will surely soar MUCH higher as priced in dollars than it will, indeed, soar in terms of euro prices, the real gains in purchasing power within BOTH economic blocks will be stunning. (Probably moreso in the United Stated as a result of conceivable reactionary capital controls and trade barriers in the U.S.)<<<<


Me>>>
But FOA seems to be saying we in North America will not participate in this explosion in gold price, first because the only physical market with fair prices will be in Europe, and second because we will be severely taxed on every purchase and sale of our gold. He aso seems to contradict himself, saying in one line that a European gold coin will become real useable legal tender, and in the next line, gold coins used outside the investment realm will be taxed. and then , this tax will be enough to prevent illegal uses of gold (whatever might those be?)

FOA (clips from msg 118)>>>

US physical gold free market will be locally encouraged, it will most likely simply be a shadow function of Euro Gold prices. Besides, politically, unless we once again stop all gold ownership and or implement exchange controls,,,,,, all gold buying money would head to europe. Besides again, politically, a Euro based free market will end all fictions of gold's true value anyway. (This is my private understanding or scoop, if you will) I also expect a European gold coin to become real usable legal tender (not a collector item) and be named the "EuroLand"". Again, a barter asset that is taxed when used. Just as we have sales taxes and excise taxes; gold coins used outside an investment realm would be taxed.

However, don't we should not be so naive not to expect some serious taxes of our own on bullion sales. Still, only just enough so as to keep currency tender protected from being supplanted with illegal gold use. -----------------


Me>>
I have about come to the conclusion, that if governments whether European or North Amercian, try to control the gold market, in this incredibly complex fashion, or the money market, in any of the ways FOA and others describe, we are in for simply a continuation of the chaos that is coming down the pike anyway. I like ORO's idea, that what will happen is that banking and trade, it now being visible they are incredibly mismanaged by government idiots, will increasingly go underground, as it has in much of the world where people cannot trust their governments. What we should realize is that in much of the world where there is a plethora of over-regulation by corrupt government, 90% or more of commerce is conducted outside the law, illegally. It wil be so here, in time to come. And our living standards will be greatly reduced as a result.

FWIW

Goldfan
Netking
(10/09/2001; 21:59:14 MDT - Msg ID: 63274)
Afghan aid convoy leaves Iran
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/middle_east/newsid_1589000/1589168.stmThe psyops continue as trucks carrying UN food aid leave Iran for Afghanistan, as Iranian President Mohammad Khatami calls for an immediate end to the air strikes . . .
------------------------------------------------------------
Snippet:
"A convoy of World Food Programme (WFP) trucks carrying 100 tonnes of wheat has left Iran, heading for the western city of Herat . . . Iranian President Mohammad Khatami, meanwhile, has called for an "immediate end" to the US military strikes against Afghanistan, as thousands of refugees continue to cross the border into Iran.

Mr Khatami said the strikes against the Taleban regime and Saudi-born militant Osama Bin Laden had caused a "human catastrophe," Iranian state radio said . . . . 300,000 to 400,000 Afghans could flee to Iran during the attacks.

I wonder if OBL will hidden in these 400,000 . . .
- Netking
Gandalf the White
(10/09/2001; 22:45:32 MDT - Msg ID: 63275)
Interesting "SPIN" of facts.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?print=1&guid={53AFD731-7AE4-4527-9455-9F8C6F498971}Gold for December delivery fell to an intraday low at $289.30 an ounce Tuesday, and closed down $4.10 at $289.70.

"The current demand for bullion doesn't seem to justify higher prices but if tensions escalate, gold could finally trade above $300.00 as further safe haven buying will take place," said PeakTrading.com analyst Charles Nedoss.

As of late Monday, Comex gold warehouse stocks were unchanged at 1.1 million ounces. Silver inventories were also flat at 103.3 million ounces.
====
The fact that Comex gold and silver stocks are in "DEEP STORAGE" (WTC) was glossed over here perhaps ?
NAW ---
<;-(
megatron
(10/09/2001; 22:48:49 MDT - Msg ID: 63276)
Funny
Silver inventories are 'flat' all right. Too funny.
FluorideCommie
(10/09/2001; 23:08:43 MDT - Msg ID: 63277)
MARKETS, TERRORISM AND GOLD
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/judge101001pv.htmlA good recap of recent events and why we are here at the USAGOLD forum.

MARKETS, TERRORISM AND GOLD
Philip Judge
10 October 2001

The feverish buying that has hit our normally sedate and orderly trading desks in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in the
US, are an indication of far deeper structural problems in the global economy and financial markets. These conditions
clearly existed before the events of September 11th.

A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT
The world today is a very different place than what it was just over three weeks ago. As tragedy unfolded on the streets of
New York, the world shifted on its axis. We have all heard talk of the new sense of nationalism and united resolve; patriotic
sentiment is running high, not just in the United States, but across the west generally.

However, the greatest change has come, not in increased airport security or the newly declared war on terrorism, but on the
financial and economic front. When considering this rapid transformation, several changes immediately spring to mind;

1) Money Supply
Fiat money (national currency created out of thin air) is being flooded into the global system. The US has announced
hundreds of billions of dollars in new spending programs and economic stimulus packages. The much-flaunted government
surpluses of two years ago have disappeared, while it seems the era of large government deficit spending is back.

The Fed has moved twice in two weeks to cut interest rates, each time by 50 basis points. Nine rate cuts this year now brings
the Fed Funds rate to 2.5%.

Japanese Yen are being created at massive rates to prevent that currency climbing to against the US dollar, therefore
attempting to prevent any further deterioration in Japanese exports from impacting their already deflationary economy.

Like water into a bucket, all this "new money" cannot slush into the global economy without eventually giving way to
runaway inflation.

2) Bond Market
Bond markets are complex and highly sensitive to many different factors. Bonds have been considered a safe haven for
capital when the stock market is under selling pressure. On the other hand, bond markets react poorly to future inflationary
fears, such as the massive money pumping we have looked at above.

3) Stock Markets
The stock market has continued its slide, now confirming a bear market in the Dow. The 3rd Quarter finished with the Dow
and S&P both down 15% while the NASDAQ was down by 30%. The SEC announced the relaxing of rules governing the
trading of stocks. The NASDAQ announced a change in its rules, saying that it will now allow companies to remain listed if
their share price falls below $1.00. Stock market losses are now worse than we have seen in several decades. However, as
the economy has deteriorated, company's earnings have fallen faster than their stock price, leading to P/E's that are now at
record highs. This points to much lower stock prices from here, if P/E's are eventually to return to the historic norm.

4) Unemployment and the Consumer
The average consumer is the backbone and lifeblood of our modern "spend-and-consume-today-and-pay-for-it-tomorrow"
economy. Without consumer spending, the economy grinds to a halt. The consumer is more in debt today than at any time in
all history. It becomes harder to spend when you don't have a job. As the economy is slowing, companies are laying off staff.

Unemployment claims reported last week reached the highest levels in nine years. While more workers are out of a job each
day, their stock portfolios are being hit like they never considered possible.

Credit card delinquency is up over 10% from this time last year. Eventually the consumer realizes that he can't borrow and
spend forever, regardless of how low interest rates go. What happens when the savior of the economy, the consumer, simply
stops spending? Consumer confidence is now reported at hitting five-year lows.

AN UNCERTAIN WAR
It has been pointed out many times in recent weeks that the economy reacts well to war. Certainly over the last 50 years this
has been true. The war economy of the late 30's and early 40's eventually dragged the world out of the Great Depression.
Every war the US has been involved in the last 50 years has led to higher stock prices.

Many political and military analysts have pointed out that this is not like any other war we have waged in the past. While I
don't claim to be a political commentator, it is plainly obvious that there is a far greater degree of uncertainty with this war
and its objectives than any other conflict to which America or its Allies have been engaged in the past.

The enemy is intangible; difficult to identify and locate. It can be nowhere and yet everywhere. It has nothing to lose with
few fixed cities or fortifications, and then there are the greater religious and cultural considerations.

From a global economic perspective, the delicate and complex balance that is Middle East politics is at the epicenter of this
war. We have repeatedly said that our daily dependence on uninterrupted supplies of crude oil from the Middle East is
possibly our single greatest economic vulnerability.

GREATER PERSPECTIVE
To understand what these changes will mean to us in the future, we need to take a step back. Whether it is the destroying of
national currencies by inflating them into oblivion, the return of government deficit spending in the form of government
stimulus packages, unemployment, consumer confidence, hemorrhaging of stock portfolios, or the new war on terrorism, all
of this spells uncertainty, and markets do not like uncertainty.

NOTES FROM THE BULLION TRADING DESK
Gold and Silver are many things including a barometer of the economic well being of any economy. Throughout the high-tech
boom of the 1990's, it appeared as though the precious metals had had their day. Since the 1930's and 40's we have been told
that gold was the "Barbarous Metal". In more recent times we have been repeatedly instructed that gold no longer is an
accurate gauge to the economy. It no-longer reacts to inflation, recession or stock market volatility. All that changed in recent
weeks. The pile of notes collected from my trading desk in the last three weeks tells the stories of the response of clients to
the uncertainty and instability that lies ahead.

FINANCIAL SELF-PRESERVATION
Eventually, once peoples minds started to recover from initial shock of the devastation so close to home, client's minds
inevitably turned to the markets and their own personal and financial security. Deep inside people's minds and hearts is the
instinctive understanding that gold and silver are the ultimate safe haven asset in troubled times. It is this instinctive response
that drives the precious metals to extreme levels of turn-over whenever shock waves resound throughout the political or
economic environment.

GOLD - A METAL OF EMOTION
Gold is an emotional metal. It sparks a deep emotion response within people. Privately I have used what I call the "emotion
index" to measure the buying strength in the market. The resolve by many clients in recent weeks to secure precious metals,
at any price, has this "emotion index" surpassing the highest levels I have witnessed in several years.

GOLD - A SCARCE METAL
Every bullion dealer and trader I have spoken with around the world have confirmed the same story of extremely heavy
buying in the precious metals. Last week Reuters reported bullion coin sales had increased 10-fold since the attacks.
Everywhere, stories of long delays in delivery and large premiums are common.

For a long time we have spoken about the limited size of the physical markets. We have said they are very finite markets, it
will not take very many people entering the market at one time to clear out available reserves, precipitating a world-wide
short squeeze, in-turn pushing prices to extreme levels very quickly.

GOLD - A RIGGED MARKET
In the last few years, large amounts of evidence has come to light exposing the manipulation and capping of the price of gold,
particularly by western governments and central banks. While western nations have being holding down the price of gold,
through selling and leasing, eastern and Arab nations have been snapping it up at incredibly cheap prices.

It is an irony to me that, while we declare war on terrorism, we sell our future financial security at vastly undervalued
prices. In a recent article, Bill Murphy from the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee put it this way "What is the point of
winning the war on terrorists only to be defeated by them in years to come when they, and their recruited colleagues, buy up the
physical gold market and bankrupt America?"

Earlier this year, well before the recent acts of terrorism, I interviewed Adam Hamilton. In the course of our conversation,
we discussed this shift of gold from the vaults of the west to the east. At the time I said "I've always thought and said that it's
ultimately shows a shift of nation's power. Not only in the short term but in the longer term, the more gold a nation amasses, or a
block of nations amass, to themselves, ultimately the greater power they will have, that is at least what we have seen through
history."

Mr. Hamilton responded; "Yes, the kind of popularized definition of the golden rule is "he has the gold makes the rules" is so
true for people and nations, and as you point out, civilizations who have had a good strong gold based currency have lasted as
long as the currency is not debased. But as soon as the gold moves to somewhere else, that civilization falters, which is what is
happening in the west. We have heavily, heavily indebted fiat currency, debt-based welfare states. United States, most of Europe
and Australia, are getting to the point where they cannot support themselves any more. They debase the currency so much they
just have done away with all financial prudence, and the new rulers of the world, from a gold perspective, from a true financial
perspective, are going to be those Asian (and Middle East) countries which are amassing these hoards of gold." LINK TO
FULL INTERVIEW

A FINANCIAL PROTECTION RACKET
Fellow Australian, Bill Buckler writes an in-depth fortnightly newsletter and runs his excellent website
www.the-privateer.com. Last week in his weekly gold commentary he wrote a piece called "A Financial Protection Racket"
which, in my opinion, summarizes so well the situation we in the west find ourselves today;

"Of all the decisions which have come out of the U.S. government since the September 11 atrocity, the most transparently
ridiculous one has been an FAA (Federal Aviation Authority) decision NOT to allow commercial airline pilots to arm themselves.
Pilots will NOT be allowed to defend either themselves, their passengers, or their aircraft. Federally-employed "Sky Marshals"
will have that job.

Consider this carefully. No private citizen or private company (airline passenger, airline pilot or airline owner) is permitted to
protect either life or property. Only GOVERNMENT is allowed to do that.

Now, if you move this "principle" over to the financial realm, you will readily understand the reason why all governments want to
control Gold.

There may have been some excuse for people who did not recognize the fact that they had been stripped of their ability to protect
their financial future before September 11. There is no excuse for not recognizing it now. What are the "investment classes"
which almost any investment advisor in any nation will recommend to you? Stocks, debt paper of all descriptions, real estate.
For the more adventurous, there are financial derivatives of all descriptions and levels of complexity. And what is it that everyone
is supposed to flee into to "protect" their wealth in times of trouble? Government debt paper.

What is the single financial action which has been most actively discouraged by governments all over the world in the past
decade? SAVING - of any description. What was the only thing being relied on to "save" the world economy before September 11
- SPENDING BORROWED MONEY.

Now, what is the SINGLE most important difference between a financial system which rewards thrift and the creation of REAL
wealth and one which "rewards" profligacy and the juggling of paper claims to the real wealth of others? The first uses GOLD
as money. The second BARS Gold from any financial function whatsoever.

It is astonishing that anyone who has paid any attention to the financial and market mania of the past decade would harbor any
shadow of a doubt that Gold and Gold prices denominated in the various fiat currencies of the world is being manipulated.
Physical Gold demand has outstripped newly-mined Gold supply since the late 1980s. The history of rules and regulations
designed to hamper or make impossible the private ownership of Gold in the U.S. goes back to the 1930s.

We have lost track of the number of times we have seen statements to this effect in the media: "Gold has once again confirmed its
loss of stature as a financial medium by failing to rise in price despite the current crisis." This has been an almost constant
refrain ever since the $US Gold price "topped out" in early 1980.

By now it should have dawned on most people that the people in charge of the modern ("gold free") financial system have a
vested interest in keeping Gold down and that they have evolved ever more "sophisticated" means to do just that.

Fundamentally, if you want to protect yourself from ANY depth of crisis or collapse in the present system of fiat currencies and
debt based claims to your wealth, there is only one way to do it. OWN PHYSICAL GOLD.

This is the modern financial "protection racket". Governments are making it as hard as they possibly can for anyone to protect
THEMSELVES against a collapse of the financial system which governments control. The racket is clear. "We will protect you" -
says the government - "but we will only do it if you stay INSIDE OUR SYSTEM".

To coin a variation on an old theme: "I'm from the government. I'm here to protect you.". If you, dear reader, are content to rely
on that promise, then you won't see any need to own Gold. If you are NOT content to rely on it, and you have not yet acquired
any physical Gold, you had better hurry up.

Don't bet your financial future on it. Make SURE you have some Gold. Anyone who has bought Gold in ANY currency over
the past six months is already WAY ahead of the game. But Gold is still cheap in U.S. Dollars. At any price OVER $US
300, it is highly likely to get more expensive very quickly." THE PRIVATEER used with permission.






Black Blade
(10/09/2001; 23:38:35 MDT - Msg ID: 63278)
Saudi Oil Fields at Risk If Bin Laden Turns Attention to Home
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Latest%20Columns&touch=1&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_bbco&T=markets_fgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=blk&s=AO8IxdBUpU2F1ZGkg
Snippit:

London, Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabia, which pumps 10 percent of the world's oil, has plenty of potential targets for terrorists wishing to attack the country and its rulers: more than 50 oil fields, 20,000 kilometers of pipelines and dozens of related plants across a country larger than Mexico. As the U.S. and allies bomb Afghanistan in connection with the Sept. 11 terror attacks, some experts say that if Saudi exile Osama bin Laden strikes, he may act in his former homeland. He said on al-Jazeera TV that ``the wind of change is blowing to remove evil from the peninsula'' that includes Saudi Arabia. ``The oil installations are highly vulnerable to terrorist attacks,'' said Roger Tomkys, who chairs the Center for Middle Eastern & Islamic Studies at Cambridge University and served as a British diplomat in the region. ``They must be very jumpy.''

Black Blade: Discussed this possibility before. It is a distinct possibility though. If the Al-Qaeda Cult wished to cripple the western economies they simply have to shut down petroleum production fore a time and then it's "Game Over" - "Check Mate" Even crashing a plane into a couple of major US refineries would put the US out of business. There just isn't any refinery capacity to spare.
site steward
(10/10/2001; 00:01:39 MDT - Msg ID: 63279)
Briefly, for goldfan
It evidently seems beyond my ability to present this "big picture" material in anything that promotes understanding outside of my close circle of direct contacts here in The Tower. It really should not surprise me that expressions flow more efficiently verbally from one chair to another than they do via the keyboard.

Despite my hopeless defects, I can't pass up this one last chance to address a key point that you have obviously misinterpreted in the overall scheme of things that have been presented here.

You wrote:

"FOA seems to be saying we in North America will not participate in this explosion in gold price, first because the only physical market with fair prices will be in Europe, and second because we will be severely taxed on every purchase and sale of our gold."

On the first point, no, that is not it at all. The suppression of "price-value" as delivered by the gold derivatives marketplace is a temporary phenomenon that will last only so long as this market in pseudo-gold retains its credibility. During the interim transition period as credibility is lost in "paper gold", rising premiums on delivered gold will bridge the gap as necessary to reconcile the physical market realities with the price illusion of derivative-based "spot" prices.

On the tax issue, Euroland made a special point to eliminate VAT taxes on physical gold. Here in the U.S. legislation is pending to reduce capital gains on physical gold to be in line with other financial instruments like stocks or bonds.

The heaviest taxes indicated will likely be applied to mining operations upon newly produced gold ("national treasure") from national sovereign territory, thus removing the typical "leaverage" that you might otherwise expect for mining stock investments over outright purchases (at this time and price) of physical gold.

I'm confident you will find the sense in the original posts if you take the effort to give them another look. My posting deficiencies aside, you seem to be seeing only what you WANT to see, that is, a continuing quagmire of the status quo. Well, I'm sorry to disappoint you, but there are too many bright minds at work on this to tolerate much longer the imperfection of "as is".

That is all. Happy days!

RandyView Yesterday's Discussion.

Usul
(10/10/2001; 01:46:47 MDT - Msg ID: 63280)
Confidence crashes in panic
http://www.thecouriermail.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5936,3020290%255E3122,00.html"BUSINESS sentiment collapsed last month in yet another sign the war on terrorism and the string of corporate disasters is sapping the nation's economic confidence.

The National Australia Bank business confidence index registered a 26-point slump in September, double the size of any previous drop in its 13-year history..."
Usul
(10/10/2001; 01:49:31 MDT - Msg ID: 63281)
Blue Chip Paints Darker Economic Picture
http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=businessnews&StoryID=278171"Economists in the closely watched Blue Chip survey painted a darker picture of the U.S. economy's near-term prospects after the Sept. 11 attacks than they had before the deadly assaults that have further damaged an already flagging economy.

Economists polled by the Blue Chip Economic Indicators newsletter cut their forecast for growth in U.S. gross domestic product to a scant 1.1 percent this year, down from the 1.6 percent forecast just before the attacks, with the vast majority agreeing the U.S. is now in recession..."
Usul
(10/10/2001; 01:51:00 MDT - Msg ID: 63282)
Informal barometer going down
http://www.business.scotsman.com/news/headlines_specific.cfm?section=MK&headlineid=19073"ST IVES, the printing group, tends to be a good informal indicator of the state of the UK economy.

It prints a lot of the glossy documentation that accompanies flotations and mergers. Therefore, when confidence is high, and such corporate activity is booming, St Ives tends to do well.

As expected, yesterday's 10 per cent drop in annual profits at the company shows that confidence is anything but high in this annus mirabilis of terrorist mayhem, economic gloom, and stock market volatility..."
Usul
(10/10/2001; 02:01:42 MDT - Msg ID: 63283)
Japan bank shares hit by bad-debt woes, attacks
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/011009/t74672_1.html"Shares in three of Japan's top four banks plunged to record lows in Wednesday morning trade on renewed concerns over bad-loan problems and growing uncertainty over the impact of U.S.-led attacks on Afghanistan..."

``Recent media reports about banks' bad debts were an affirmation of how bad the situation is,'' said Masaharu Sakudo, managing director at Tachibana Securities. ``Market participants are losing confidence and have no desire to invest in banks..."

"I expect the market to continue to slide, with no immediate target for a floor."

What was that word... oh yes, GRIM!

I don't expect Japan's economy to be back to full health until the bad debts and malinvestments are taken care of- and that will require bad business to be eliminated- an economy like an organism can not be healthy if it is weighed down by diseased organs.
Simply Me
(10/10/2001; 02:03:59 MDT - Msg ID: 63284)
@BlackBlade
Here I go again, doing my best to prove my stupidity.
How would the destruction of Saudi oil fields put any more than a kink in the flow of gasoline/heating oil here?
Isn't Saudi oil mostly the sour type...too heavy for our refineries? I thought we used mostly the sweet crude from western Canada.

Also, could a combination of Canada, Mexico and our own Alaskan fields make up the difference with some relaxation of environmental regulations, a little rationing, and maybe convincing a few folks to trade in those SUVs?

Don't make me look too stupid. What I know about oil I learned from you! Although I have to admit I've skipped a few classes.
simply
Pandagold
(10/10/2001; 02:28:43 MDT - Msg ID: 63285)
Black Blade #63271 'pacifist training'


Forgive me but I couldn't resist taking your scenario a step further

...... Suddenly you feel a blow on the back of your head that almost smashes in your skull.

As you lay on the ground, your life's blood ebbing away,
and the last light is fading from your eyes, you are just conscious of the young student standing over you.

The last words you hear are " Oh, I did try to warn you, that was my brother, he is not quite so pacifist as I am".
Usul
(10/10/2001; 02:37:05 MDT - Msg ID: 63286)
Bank failures during the Great Depression
http://www.ssa.gov/history/bank.html"Thousands of banks failed during the Depression and loss of confidence caused anxious depositors to create "runs" on banks as they tried to withdraw their money before the banks collapsed..."

"Many of the small banks had lent large portions of their assets for stock market speculation and were virtually put out of business overnight when the market crashed..."

As Mark Twain said, "The past may not repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme."

Those old bank failures wiped out accounts that were not covered by the US FDIC insurance scheme, which was introduced later.

NOT covered by the FDIC are:

Treasury Securities
Mutual Funds
Safe Deposit Boxes
Annuities
Stocks, Bonds, and other investment products
Deposits over $100,000 (unless FDIC has arranged for another bank to assume responsibility for all deposits in exchange for financial assistance, usually in the case of large money center banks)

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae Mortgage Backed Securities:
"in no case are the liabilities of the GSE to be backed by the full faith and credit of the federal government...
However, every GSE is perceived by the credit markets to have an implicit federal government guarantee backing its obligations"
http://se1.com/usp/lr/articles/gov_enterprise.htm

Is your "implicit guarantee" worth the paper it's written on?

Gold doesn't need FDIC cover. Its self-worth is its own cover. Do you need to take delivery? See "Safe Deposit Boxes" above.
Spartacus
(10/10/2001; 05:56:00 MDT - Msg ID: 63287)
http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2001/2839operation_northwds.html

Operation Northwoods
hmm...
Grubstaker
(10/10/2001; 06:49:28 MDT - Msg ID: 63288)
DISinformation in uncertain times...
Please be aware that many of these so-called "patriots" have indeed their own agendas and will use whatever is at their disposal to "promote" their own position. Do the research. Find out who they are before giving them serious consideration. Follow the money, follow their associations, (especially their "comrades"). They seek POWER (political and otherwise) and sensationalism creates "name recognition". These persons do not serve our national interest.Amen
Black Blade
(10/10/2001; 06:54:20 MDT - Msg ID: 63289)
RE: Simply Me - Oil

Interesting that you should ask these questions:

How would the destruction of Saudi oil fields put any more than a kink in the flow of gasoline/heating oil here?

Isn't Saudi oil mostly the sour type...too heavy for our refineries? I thought we used mostly the sweet crude from western Canada.

Also, could a combination of Canada, Mexico and our own Alaskan fields make up the difference with some relaxation of environmental regulations, a little rationing, and maybe convincing a few folks to trade in those SUVs?

Black Blade: The short answers are 1) Saudi is the major Middle East OPEC player with any real ability to increase oil production. Other OPEC players have been producing at near capacity until very recently (decline in demand due to the deepening Recession). This last Spring maximum production of world oil was about 78 million bbl/day and demand was at about 77 million bbl/day. The result was oil approaching $40.00/bbl.

2) Saudi oil is generally a good low to moderate sulfur oil as is much of the ME oil. The big exploration booms in oil such as in the Caspian Sea region appear to be more "sour" with higher sulfur content. US refineries routinely process ME oil. In fact some US refineries process heavy crudes such as that from the Orinoco Oil Belt in Venezuela. This "sludge" is thought to contain 1.2 trillion barrels of heavy oil. The Orinoco Belt, or "Faja" of eastern Venezuela may become a major source of oil, yet this is a costly enterprise as this heavy sludge may not be easily recovered. This sludge has been described as having the consistency of peanut butter. The belt is a thick lattice of ancient river beds about 280 miles (450 kilometers) long and 60 miles (100 kilometers) wide. The heavy oil must be warm enough to be pumped and specialized horizontal drilling rigs are used. To keep this oil moving, solvents are used to dilute the oil before it cools and hardens. Obviously this will be not only costly to produce, but since it is still a heavy oil even after it is upgraded for shipment, the additional processing at the refinery will also be costly. But I digress.

3) Your third question is even more interesting. We can't conserve our way to prosperity. Asking the American public to make what could amount to several billions of dollars of purchases by dumping their SUV's and making large dollar purchases in this economic environment with rising unemployment and declining consumer confidence is asking a lot. Rationing will only raise prices - this has been proposed by Al Gore in his book "Earth in the Balance" and other environmentalists. When energy cost were rising in California these same environmentalist were quickly singing a different tune. The EPA has already loosened regulations on some "boutique" gasoline blends to ease supply constraints. Fuel rationing? - Remember when Richard Nixon placed price controls on gas during the 1973 oil embargo? It was a disaster with high prices and long gas lines. Rationing would do the same thing. On other western hemisphere sources - Canada has over 600 billion bbl of quality oil tied up in the Athabasca Tar Sands, however, it is rather costly to "mine" and refine. Some is economically processed by a few players. Alaskan oil in ANWR for example is not likely to come into production due to environmental opposition. Like the California situation it will likely come into production when the American public is hit hard in the pocket book and the gullible cry "price gouging" by the big bad oil companies. The real problem is not so much the supply of oil, but rather the supply of "Cheap Oil." "Cheap Oil" is running out - refer to the "The Rise and Fall of HydroCarbon Man" post (Black Blade (9/17/2000; 5:51:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 36825 and 36824). Mexico can't even meet their own oil needs anymore. PEMEX the state owned oil company has mismanaged their oil fields and now are using injection methods to "squeeze" more oil out as it were. Who knows, they may eventually ask us for oil.

This is a large complicated issue and too complicated to address in short tidy response. You just might want to review the "HydroCarbon Man" post.

Cheers!

- Black Blade

BTW, I will try to address another energy issue coming toward us like a freight train that will likely have a severe impact on the economy - "Inflation or Stagflation" - possibly "Depression?" But I must get ready to help out the "Grasshoppers."

Gold Trail Update
(10/10/2001; 07:07:07 MDT - Msg ID: 63290)
The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated
The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.
Black Blade
(10/10/2001; 07:11:29 MDT - Msg ID: 63291)
Debt weighs more as firms gobble cash
http://www.usatoday.com/money/general/2001-10-10-cash-burn.htm
Snippit:

U.S. corporations are quickly burning through cash, pushing some toward bankruptcy and making it more expensive for others to borrow money. Nervous lenders have already cut back sharply on lending to upstart companies and those with heavy debt loads. But cash worries are spreading to well-known companies as earnings fall so fast there is less left to pay debt.

Black Blade: Even when money supply is increasing to unprecedented proportions. Third quarter earnings losses are being reported this week.

BTW, just out - 2 groups of Taliban fighters have crossed into Pakistan and are engaged in combat with Pakistani troops. Looks like an attempt to grab power in Pakistan (and they got nukes!).
da2g
(10/10/2001; 07:35:08 MDT - Msg ID: 63292)
Gold Trail
Wow. Lots of great reading material lately. As I usually have to read each post a few times for it to penetrate my thick skull, I have my week cut out for me.
Galearis
(10/10/2001; 08:30:42 MDT - Msg ID: 63293)
"newsflash" to Netking
I think Rhody is right!He writes:
Hi:
Where are the silver hundred ounce bars, the Krugerands and gold maple leafs that
used to be offered through Kitco? Could it be that ALL of these items are in such
short supply that Kitco can no longer lay its hands on product? Hmmmmmm........
But prices for gold and silver are dirt cheap. Look at COMEX. Better still, ask [the paper promoters -names deleted to protect the guilty (smile)]
how come prices are cheap and dropping, and yet there are physical
shortages developing. Many numbskulls on the forum
just don't get it. The paper price is not the same as the physical price. The paper
price no longer reflects supply realities.
Rhody
https://online.kitco.com/scripts/dev/products_euro.pl?US=1
***************
And yes indeedy, these items ARE NOW MISSING from the product list. Things are truly not as before. So we now see a shortage in bullion of some weights and decor in Canada.

And here is a small question for the fiscal gold enthusiasts here on USAGOLD. It is a question that begs an answer and one that so far some pundits queried cannot answer. I very recently asked Bill Murphy this one and will repeat the whole text of it:

snip****
Hello Bill,

I also had a chuckle over the Claudia Carpenter article and it brought to mind how easy it is to state a "fact" and spin the opposite conclusion from it. The "big lie" methodology that works so well politically with an ill-informed public. CONsider the mine production figures quoted. If below ground production is going to fail in 5 years (4 years may be more probable) how could one justify falling prices based on this basic fundamental of declining supply and ever increasing demand? (The actual situation if one ignores CB inputs of gold).The answer, according to the oft-stated theme in this article, is that gold is pass� and only useful to the jewellry trade.

Which brings up a question that is bothering me. This too is the underlining theme of the article. Please forgive, if this is too naive: if the gold mining industry industry fails due to no new incoming supply from miners, is it even possible for there to be a gold market that is only based on CB "sales" or scrap? (This article would have one believe that while the W.A. sent a shock wave of speculative frenzy through the markets and COMEX spot gold prices surging but at the same time a blase announcement of NO supply in five years is promoted to achieve the opposite response.)

Note, I believe that gold would likely be at thousands of dollars an ounce once mine supply runs out, but what would be the pricing mechanism in the future? The collectibles (and scrap) market? The question becomes: what kind of a "market" can there be if there is little or no variable to supply? One cannot expect the ECB to be leasing after the dollar collapses - at least not longer than 6 years (whereupon there would be NO vault gold left).

I have found none who can give me an answer to this. (Maybe because it is too silly?) I simply can't think of another "commodity" that fits this present profile of supply and demand - or such an important one.

Best regards,
unsnip****

I would be the last one to rain on the fiscal logic presented on this forum by so many better informed minds than mine, but at the same time I find it worrisome that supply fundamentals are all too often neglected in the argument. It is for this reason alone that I remain silent and still appraising of where we are truly going.

Would Frank Veneroso concur?

So the question is asked, a flutter of a leaf in the fall of many...

Regards,

G.
USAGOLD
(10/10/2001; 08:50:12 MDT - Msg ID: 63294)
Today's Commentary: "When the next Soros or Goldsmith decides to skip the market and go to the source. . ."
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.htmlNote: If you would like to receive an information packet on gold (how to buy it -- our products and services) and a free trial subscription to our newsletter, News & Views, please go to the link above. For those seeking a higher level of understanding with respect to the gold market, many of the concepts addressed briefly below are covered in detail in our upcoming 32-page Quarterly Review. Please go to the link above to register for your packet. Registration includes trial period access to our Commentary & Review page. Today's report sans links and referenced articles is offered below for those first-time visitors who might have an interest in an (almost) daily report on the gold market with our spin not the mainstream media's. MK



10/10/01
In Brief: Just a brief comment today and a departure from our regular format.

More and more as we move on from the events of 9-11 and into the war on terrorism, you will see the newsletter writers and analysts begin to talk about the inflationary consequences of war. If we are indeed about to engage in a long-term multi-national guerilla war against terrorism, it is going to be expensive and much of that expense, if history is a teacher, will be met by creating paper out of thin air. Already the Federal Reserve has probably created more money faster than at any time in its nearly 90 year history. The president has called for upwards of $150 billion in aid and bailouts and that probably represents only the opening salvo. As a nation, I don't think we've even begun to recognize the costs involved in this new war. Where is this money going to come from? As we move along, any deficiency in bond buying will be made up by the printing press. If money insurance were not a requirement with a large segment of the investing population in the past, it will become so in the very near future.

I would like to impart a sense of urgency to our clientele driven by both the inflation dangers and the dangers to the overall economy that come with war -- a war that could very well be fought at some level right here in the United States. My own belief is that we will not only see the price of gold rise, we will certainly see premiums driven higher particularly on the pre-1933 coins so heavily in demand. If you have an interest in gold, my soundest advice would be to act on it now rather than wait. There are too many intangibles, too many questions hanging in the air, too much uncertainty . . . . . . . Don't let the attempts to hold the price of gold below $300 lull you to sleep. Price retribution, when it comes, will be swift, decisive and that would not be a time to be left out in the cold.

As Matt Schwab of Barclay Capital put it recently: " Between the CNBC, Bloomberg, and FT coverage, one cannot help but observe that gold is moving from the fringes to the mainstream. Paul Streng, MD of the Rand Refinery has noted 'a rise in interest again by investors for gold as safe-haven investment' since September 11. If this is the case, why isn't the price higher? Because a 10+ year bear market means that bullion banks have a hard time recognizing investors and can't understand them when they do. As equity markets soared, banks either withdrew from the bullion business or reduced its share of resources, resulting in fewer desks in fewer locations with fewer people on them. Consequently, liquidity has collapsed by any measure. In response to less resources, bullion banks performed triage operations, ignoring investment products (that no one wanted anyway) in favour of 'big ticket' Central Bank and producer transactions. The result - the rise in investor interest is not being transmitted into the market. It will, of course, either when the market retools, or physical buying results in a shortage of metal or when the next Soros or Goldsmith decides to skip the market and go to the source."

That sums up my concerns, fellow goldmeisters. Please go to the new links below for more detailed information from a variety sources. And call 800-869-5115 if we can be of service. I'll leave this up for the rest of the week, because at the moment I can't think of a more important message to convey to our current and prospective clientele. MK
Galearis
(10/10/2001; 09:13:59 MDT - Msg ID: 63295)
Correction
Rejoice, the kitco bullion coins are found!But the 100 oz bars are still missing.

G.
CoBra(too)
(10/10/2001; 09:24:28 MDT - Msg ID: 63296)
A Snip from Daily Reckoning: A real good one!
"I heard a good one on CNBC yesterday," adds a Daily Reckoning reader, "Rate cuts are like martinis. The first one really feels good. The next few are sort of ho-hum. By the time one comes to the tenth, everyone is numb."

After 9 cuts, short rates have gotten so low that banks can borrow below the rate of inflation. But people are numb to lower rates. "Banks are not increasing the size of their loan portfolios, as nobody is lining up to borrow," says the Mogambo Guru. "This is the old 'pushing on a string,' where nobody wants to borrow money at any interest rate."

... and it nicely ties in to BB's hidden debt icebergs -cb2

mhchuck
(10/10/2001; 09:33:44 MDT - Msg ID: 63297)
@Clint H

Your question was; However, I do not understand gold being reinstated to it's historic role. Do you think some country (USA?) then locks in the price forever once the balance is reached? The USA did that before and lost over half of the gold reserves.

Hi Clint H,
Since the policies of the Federal Reserve are not compatible with gold in ANY form. There has been a concerted effort by monetary authorities at "sterilization". The process has been gradual and took us from a full Gold Standard to the "hybrid" Gold-Exchange Standard, The GES was a method to economize gold (i.e. get more leverage out of reserves) and finally to a "Dollar Standard" that is devoid of any ties to gold. The Bretton Woods agreement was a Gold-Exchange standard. Not being strict Gold Standard It was developed to incrementally move us in a desired direction. One of the flaws that developed in a GES was disequilibrium in the balance of payments among countries. The US being the central country in this system saw dollar "overhangs" develop in many countries. France in particular exploited this weakness and returned many of their surplus dollars for what they perceived as undervalued gold at $35 per Oz. (they were correct) especially in relation to all the dollars that had been created over the years. This caused the US to close the "Gold Window" and default on their obligation in 1971. Thereafter, the world has been on a "Dollar Standard."

A classic Gold Standard imposes strict discipline on monetary authorities and a county would lose gold only if a "balance of payments deficit persisted." The US massive loss of gold even under a GES occurred because it became a debtor nation. Other countries saw this and began to cash in their chips. Game over, the US defaulted. Enter IMF and things really get complicated. The game has come so far, and the manipulations and obfuscations so great, that it will take more and more intervention and manipulation to keep this "artificial" system in place. Most likely, the only way gold will be embraced again is complete failure of the system. If history is any guide, this event is an eventual certainty.

I will include some quotes from John Meynard Keynes, the architect of the current monetary system, Mr. Keynes and his successors turned reason on its head to justify the implementation of the current monetary system. They twist and reverse cause and effect continually.

"The metal gold might not possess all the theoretical advantages of an artificially regulated standard, but it could not be tampered with and proved reliable in practice."
JMK from "Inflation and Deflation"

mhchuck: An artificially regulated standard was the goal so naturally gold became the "Barbarous Relic"

"In truth the gold standard is already a barbarous relic. All of us, from the Governor
of the Bank Of England on downwards, are now primarily interested in preserving the stability of business, prices, and employment, and are not likely, when the choice is forced on us, deliberately to sacrifice these to the outworn dogma�. (GOLD)
JMK

"Advocates of the ancient standard do not observe how remote it is from the spirit and requirements of the age. A regulated non-metallic standard has slipped in un-noticed. It exists. Whilst the economists dozed, the academic dream of a hundred years, doffing its cap and gown, clad in paper rags, (that's for sure�mhchuck) has crept into the real world by means of the bad fairies--always so much more potent than the good--the wicked ministers of finance." JMK

...."It is not a far step from this to the beginning of arrangements between central
banks by which, without ever formally renouncing the rule of gold, the quantity of metal actually buried in the vaults may come to stand, by a modern alchemy, for what they please, and its value for what they choose. Thus gold, originally stationed in the heaven
with his consort silver, as sun and moon, having first doffed his sacred attributes and
come to earth as an autocrat, may next descend to the sober status of a constitutional king with a cabinet of banks; and it may never be necessary to proclaim a Republic. But this is not yet--the evolution may be quite otherwise. The friends of gold will have to be extremely wise and moderate if they are to avoid a Revolution." JMK

"The reader will observe that I retain for gold an important role in our system. As an ultimate safeguard and reserve for sudden requirements, no superior medium is yet available. But I urge that it is possible to get the benefit of the advantages of gold without irrevocably binding our legal-tender money to follow blindly all the vagaries of gold and the future unforeseeable fluctuations in its real purchasing power." JMK
(He says it backwards,...isn't it legal tender money that has proved unstable? Here also, Keynes relegates gold to its "hedge" status where it still remains)

Your second question was: What if we just reach the balance and then the citizens of every country can measure the performance of their country's currency to a world standard, "free gold?"

Clint, The concept of "Free gold" is not a world standard as much as it means gold will never have a relation to money. Therefore gold would be prevented from performing its historic role as the mediator of value (see article). Concerning future inflation, if gold has not been allowed to rise In the US, then will a loaf of bread be allowed to rise to say $125.00? Or wages be allowed to rise? I keep asking the question, where will endless intervention ultimately lead?

I am including excerpts of an article by Jude Wanniski entitled "A Strict Gold Standard."

It's time to take another look at the 1930s, because the intellectual errors of today will never be solved until this era is properly understood. As this paper attempts to demonstrate, the Fed and the gold standard were innocent of the almost universal charges leveled against them in the last several decades. Stripped of their justification, today's floating currencies are revealed for what they are -- grotesque aberrations. The gold standard has always been the monetary system of Capitalism. In centuries of use it has never failed, although governments have often failed to stick to the gold standard.

A "strict" gold standard is not uninformed 19th century thinking. It is uninformed 20th century thinking. The gold standard worked in the 19th century not because banks held gold in equal reserves to the notes they issued, but because the United States government guaranteed its national debt in dollars at a specified weight of gold.

The great classical economists of the 19th century, from David Ricardo through Karl Marx, understood that gold's principle function as money was to provide a numeraire through which the markets could infer all other exchange rates, i.e., "prices."

It makes perfect sense that if the Federal Reserve keeps the dollar as good as gold it is keeping the dollar value of the national debt as good as gold. The dollar reserves held by the banks are as good as gold if the Federal Reserve limits its creation of currency and bank reserves to the amount demanded at a fixed gold price. It does not take Albert Einstein to figure out that while Smith, Ricardo, Marx and Walras may not have imagined this mechanism, once they looked it over they would approve. I can't imagine Von Mises or Rothbard would disapprove either. Their central principle is gold money, the only possible exchange rate that makes sense in linking paper money to the planet.

mhchuck.

smoker
(10/10/2001; 09:50:49 MDT - Msg ID: 63298)
gold and silver prices
i have been following this forum for a year. find the writers pretty darn good.
looks like gold and silver starting to roll over and die again.t.a. is turning neg. and do not be surpise if $285-286 is broken we will go back to pre wtc prices .
hard to be a believer when the bulls with the bucks do not step in and buy and push this thing thru. "money talks and b.s. walks ".looks like the b.s.is walking ,this week any way.
all the anaylsis ,talk and print of the $$ and short postions ,etc. will not mean much if the price stays below $300, and the gov'ts keep "spending "to knock gold and silver.gov'ts can print alot of money before they go broke.the avg. investor in pm's will be broke long before the gov'ts unless we all get help from the big guys!?maybe the posters here are rich and can set .iam not and i have been investing for a few years with neg returns so far.
Canuck
(10/10/2001; 10:05:41 MDT - Msg ID: 63299)
POG
POG is taking another licking while non-hedger G.TO and royalty company FN.TO keep on ticking.

The acquirees of unencumbered physical have told COMEX to stick it up their ass, we don't believe you anymore. You illustrate a farce, a mirage, a lie.

Physical continues its slow and steady separation from gold with liens.
uponroof
(10/10/2001; 10:20:25 MDT - Msg ID: 63300)
Question for USAGOLD
I am looking for an answer on the 'hope of inflation' which is now the cause celeb in bringing down the dollar/raising up gold.

If we, as gold holding folks are to believe our next real hope (outside of complete terror driven panic) is 'out of control' inflation, allow me to make a fool of myself and ask a few questions.

You stated: "Already the Federal Reserve has probably created more money faster than at any time in its nearly 90 year history. The president has called for upwards of $150 billion in aid and bailouts and that probably represents only the opening salvo. As a nation, I don't think we've even begun to recognize the costs involved in this new war. Where is this money going to come from?"

Question: Is this less important than noted due to the fact the dollar is being carried in higher volumes in more countries than ever before in it's 90 year history?

In other words, isn't this �inflation� being dispersed throughout our slaves in dollarized foreign countries in a proportion that spares our domestic economy the full wrath?

As global competitive currency devaluation increases, the dollar retains it's commanding status in proportionate means to other less attractive fiats. So, in inflating the money supply, are they actually increasing the dollar's strength in �mark to market� global currency terms? I see the dollar losing strength to the euro but not enough to jeopardize it's dominance. This is as much political as financial. Do you see Europe actually taking the global currency reigns?

It seems to me that global currency control is a forgone conclusion with the US in command for the foreseeable future, regardless of inflating the supply or foreign currency dynamics.

To lose control would require another economy (Japan, Europe, Asia etc) to provide more financial 'security'. They are our slaves and under our control in not only monetary terms but military terms. The fact that we are policing the world of terrorists right now also adds to the strength of the dollar. 'Security', in military terms, is a very precious commodity.

The monetary dynamics of this 'war' may work in the FEDs favor?

Thanks
Pandagold
(10/10/2001; 10:25:28 MDT - Msg ID: 63301)
Could it be? It's just a thought
This, I know is a long shot, and is, as yet, only thought with no basis on known fact (by me).

But I have a strong feeling that Bin Laden is dead, and has been for some days. I also believe that this is known by the British and US governments.

These TV pictures and speeches, I believe, could be a mixture of old ones and look alikes.

I believe a deal was done with the Taliban - strange as it seems, they are the lesser of the two evils between them and the Russian sponsored alliance, who are, from all accounts a bunch of dope smuggling thugs of the worst kind.

This has allowed the US military to have a little 'real life' practice (change from the virtual stuff). It allows them to show the American people they are doing something.

It's provided an opportunity to bring all the other world leaders together in a dubious alliance that will enable them to crack down on their own oppositions, especially the puppet ones we support.

Probably why the Taliban allowed the British journalist Yvonne Ridley to go free so easily at the start of the bombing. And, why the Taliban are able to show no fear of all that miltiary hardware on their doorstep and threatening to be unleashed.

The door is also open for other crackdowns and ventures - even at home.

It also keeps people's minds away from all the other economic disturbance that's taking place. It allows companies to shed employees. Oh one could go on for ages with all the pluses. As the Chinese say - Disaster presents opportunity.

This is why Powell could say America can face up to these threats of further plane hijacks and terrorist activities. Probably why the markets are rising and gold is falling., or going nowhere at best.

It would explin so many things that seem so puzzling.

As I said, it's just a thought. It was this last speech he is supposed to have made, and the reaction (lack of) it received, especially by the markets, that sparked it.

I think we will know pretty soon, one way or another.

Just wondered if anyone else had similar thoughts?
Pandagold
(10/10/2001; 10:32:31 MDT - Msg ID: 63302)
An addition, I forgot to include


Forgot to mention that in this last speech he is claimed to have made, he phrases, and says things in a way that would be admitting that he was reponsible for the attacks on America.

Why would he change tune now? He has nothing to gain. And, if he is dead, he can't deny it.

It also silences all the doubters and negates all that evidence discovered that point elsewhere.
PH in LA
(10/10/2001; 10:33:03 MDT - Msg ID: 63303)
The Ancient Gold Circle
Greetings, TrailGuide,

Your most recent offerings on the gold trail are overwhelmingly reminiscent of the old FOA/Another revelations. It has almost seemed like somebody else leading tours of old museums lately as that whole, musty old topic of "what is money, etc." was shaken out into the fresh air. Today, your comments are startlingly lucid and specific and a joy to read!

However, there is one area where it almost looks like the Powers That Be (aka governments) have an impossible task cut out for themselves. I refer, of course, to the concept of preventing the direct exchange of gold (barter) from torpedoing their supposedly "God-given" right to tax all the transactions of their citizens. Sure, taxes on real estate and financial instruments are eminently enforceable because both those assets must be registered with a government (or company/broker/whatever) in order to be "owned". However, gold does have some unique properties that makes it hard to control (a fact that has been beaten to death here and elsewhere in discussion groups). I refer, of course, to its "fungibility". Or would you suggest that somehow only "officially minted" gold would be allowed to rise in price? With one price for one country's official coin (the Euroland?) and another for the K-Rand, for example? Gold jewelry and gold tooth fillings would somehow be just cheap commodities? Well, it works in one direction when the official-gold owner (government) refuses to pay official prices for the gold tooth, but that means they would have to supply the market with cheap gold teeth, too. All this to prevent dentists from melting down an official-gold coin to put it into a tooth? So that when they then tried to recapture their cost by charging their customer you'd be right back into the fungibility loop. Sooner or later, some smart aleck would just buy tooth-gold and cast it into gold coins... Or would nobody dare to recast gold from one minted form into another, thus "counterfitting" the official gold stamp put on a coin by an official government?

Your suggestion of a circulating gold coin the size of a one-ounce gold coin with a mere gram of actual gold and filled up with something else sounds just like another coin clipping/shaving scheme like so many others throughout human history. Just as they appeared to work then, they will appear to work now... for a while. But as usual, the Powers That Be will be unable to restrain their greed and we'll have more of the same old, same old. ie deception, deceit, etc.

Why bother with the gram of gold being wasted in an alloy coin at all? Wouldn't a simple piece of paper with a picture of gold work just about as well? And here we are back in the same old circle of thought.

Hope your garden progresses better than human history!
BR549
(10/10/2001; 11:38:41 MDT - Msg ID: 63304)
Nobel Prize for Economics Awarded to Three From U.S. for asymmetric information
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AO8RyiRUSTm9iZWwg"The most commonly cited example of ``asymmetric information'' is the used-car market. Some percentage of all cars sold, new and used, have mechanical imperfections -- they're ``lemons.''

While new car dealers and their customers have little information about whether a new vehicle is a lemon, someone selling a used car has more information about its reliability, and thus has an advantage over the buyer in knowing whether the price of the car is fair.

On the other hand, a buyer would be suspicious of a seller trying to dispose of a fairly new car. That could mean the seller would get less for the vehicle, even if there's nothing wrong with it.

``Markets with imperfect information behave markedly different from perfect information,'' Stiglitz said.

``If you want to understand labor markets, product markets, capital markets, you have to understand these imperfections,'' he said. ``They have some profound implications for how well the markets work.''

For example, stockholders in a company delegate operational responsibility to a management team. The stockholders have imperfect information about how well the managers are serving their interests in running the company. The theories developed by Akerlof, Stiglitz, and Spence helped lead to new ways of compensating managers -- with stock options, or salaries tied to performance -- to align their interests with those of stockholders.

``Markets are basically information markets and you need to try to resolve asymmetries,'' Stiglitz said. "

BR-And as for Gold, the more that we understand about how the free market works, the more we understand the imperfections and/or manipulations, insider knowledge, CB's selling and buying for the benefit of their member banks, terrorism and the world's new economic wars, and how everything is supposed to function if supply & demand remains unfettered.

Asymmetric information-- An interesting topic for future debate.

BR549
BR549
(10/10/2001; 11:56:06 MDT - Msg ID: 63305)
USAGOLD (msg#: 63294)
"10/10/01
In Brief: Just a brief comment today and a departure from our regular format.

More and more as we move on from the events of 9-11 and into the war on terrorism, you will see the newsletter writers and analysts begin to talk about the inflationary consequences of war. If we are indeed about to engage in a long-term multi-national guerilla war against terrorism, it is going to be expensive and much of that expense, if history is a teacher, will be met by creating paper out of thin air. Already the Federal Reserve has probably created more money faster than at any time in its nearly 90 year history. The president has called for upwards of $150 billion in aid and bailouts and that probably represents only the opening salvo. As a nation, I don't think we've even begun to recognize the costs involved in this new war. Where is this money going to come from? As we move along, any deficiency in bond buying will be made up by the printing press. If money insurance were not a requirement with a large segment of the investing population in the past, it will become so in the very near future."


Right on! IMHO-This new economic war of the 21st century is the topic and/or "subject" resulting from 911.

It will take many thousands of these new 5,000 pound bunker buster bombs to destroy the mountains of new paper that are being created as a result of 911.

BR549
USAGOLD
(10/10/2001; 11:57:19 MDT - Msg ID: 63306)
uponroof. . .
In response to your questions:

1. I do not throw anything out as a hope for gold investors who are thinking about making high profits trading in gold. 90% of our clientele view gold as money or portfolio insurance, so the price rising for many of them is actually viewed as a negative -- at least until they have met their portfolio requirements. When I raise the spectre of inflation, it is in reference to loss of purchasing power in the currency and something to be guarded against not speculated on. This is a subtle distinction to some, but not to me. As an "investor" you are constantly wondering where gold is going to go next and it bothers you when it doesn't go in the direction you've bet on. As a "safe-haven gold buyer", your primary concern is what will be coming over the horizon that might negatively affect the portfolio. I consider inflation influenced by war spending to be a danger worth planning for.

2. I am not an economist so my views are rather straight-forward. I do not see all these layers and machinations. To me, it is matter of what government (and I include here the Fed) is doing with spending policies and funding those policies. The fact that there is a market for dollars overseas (and to what extent that will exist in the months to come) is a separate discussion. I think we are moving rapidly into an era when deficit spending will once again be a hot topic. When the government over-spends its tax revenues, it raises money by selling bonds to the public -- domestic and international. If there are no takers, the bonds are sold to the Fed and carried in its books as an asset. The government takes that money and spends it on war materials (or whatever) and that ends up in the economy. This is the modern process of money printing. You can track it weekly in the Fed's balance sheet as published in Barron's Marketwatch section.

3. It is to avoid holding U.S. paper that Europe has gone to the euro -- make no mistake about that. What that will mean to us is something that FOA has been trying to communicate for some time now. Things change, uponroof. We are fighting a different war than any we have ever fought before. One of the interesting aspects of it is that the United States cannot exercise its military full scale -- it would be an exercise in futility if it did. Does this enhance or erode the connecting bonds between U.S. military might and the might of the dollar? Now, that's one for discussion and debate. Keep in mind that the Viet Nam War induced the virulent inflation of the 1970s and the dollar was just as much the center of the world financial system then as it is now -- or possibly less so now because of the euro. In other words, we can have a very nasty price inflation here and still have the dollar as either the primary or one of two primary reserve currencies.

4. The strong demand we are seeing for gold right now in the form of coins and bullion around the world in my view is a direct response to a new international view of the dollar. There will always be some flight to the dollar but in the overall equation will it be enough? These are things we need to think about, monitor and discuss as we move along and that's what this forum should be all about. One suggestion I would make would be to go to my Commentary & Review section and read the snippets and links I have put up there if you haven't already. You will see that I am not the only one wondering what will happen to the dollar in all this. And you will see that there are a several scenarios on the discussion table.

Thanks for your question. It is a good one. Please forgive me if I've stated the obvious (in this quickly thrown together response) -- but I think these old relationships need to be re-surfaced from time to time so we don't lose sight of financial reality. In the end, it will come down as it always does to a matter of belief and understanding. I am uncertain what the outcome will be therefore I own gold. I don't own it to make money. I do that in other ways. I own gold to preserve what I've made in other venues. As Richard Russell, one commentator I truly admire, says constantly "In this bear market, he wins who loses least".
uponroof
(10/10/2001; 11:57:37 MDT - Msg ID: 63307)
Gummint Gold Eagle sales
Highest previous monthly sales were April and July at 22,500 ozs per month.

August sales a meger 6500 ozs.

September roaring at 52,500 ozs!

Yet POG is of course heading south and we have absolutely no intervention in this market?



with much thanks to 'Chester' for this heads up
BR549
(10/10/2001; 12:22:08 MDT - Msg ID: 63308)
Off "subject"
@Black Blade--
Seems the new "Pacifist Training" school has graduated its first class but is having difficulty recruiting for the Freshman Class. In the running for funniest post of the year along with uponroof's.

@HERMANN GOERING-"That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy." "All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in any country."

BR-@Hermann, a great job that was done in letting us know we were being attacked resulting in an astounding polling approval percentage of 90% in favor of attacking and 4% not in favor. (6% are asking--What is 911?)

@OJ-Never thought that it would be possible for you to get the electric chair for a simple assault of a poor motorist huh? Instead of being able to plea bargain your way out, the prosecution is asking for 6 years for you. Welcome to FL. Maybe you can assemble another dream team for you and fellow murderer vinny laden.

@Terrorist who threatened to rain airplanes out of the sky for his new "holy war". The JDAM society would like to send you a thank you for your recent statements. Please provide the address of your cave where we can deliver your package. It doesn't have to be precise, just within 20 feet of your front door.

@National Enquirer--You shouldn't have run those nasty pictures of vinny and his girlfriend.

Not funny-The CB's must be back in business selling gold as Dec Futures down -$3.00 to $286.70.

BR549
Netking
(10/10/2001; 12:31:54 MDT - Msg ID: 63309)
Galearis
Sir Galearis(63293) Good post, the squeeze is here yes. Even for the "Southern Bugs" like me who have enjoyed an abundant supply and have been pampered in that regard, the shortage is now showing "some" signs kicking in. We're still able to source here ok(PTL), but some said they are experiencing delays of up to a couple of weeks etc. . . Sound familiar?
- Netking
uponroof
(10/10/2001; 13:03:33 MDT - Msg ID: 63310)
USAGOLD
Thanks for that 'quickly thrown together' response. I did not think it was that at all. It was very comprehensive and much appreciated. Your point about the Viet Nam war economy is interesting but I don't think global currency conditions are consistent despite the similar strong dollar constants.

I'll check the references you gave and move on to greater understanding. I have often made the mistake of investing versus protection...and not just in financial matters. Must be a character flaw...or attribute, not sure. Thanks again for your time.
Galearis
(10/10/2001; 13:09:43 MDT - Msg ID: 63311)
@Netking re: Disinformation from (inter)National Lampoon2
More: the options pusherThe fellow by the name of Kaplan who goes by the handle of Uptick over on the food fight forum made a statement a while back that the shortage of 100 oz silver bars was art over substance. His position to explain the derth of 100 oz bars was that the size was no longer being made.

As this fellow is obviously in the paper game selling, the statement was likely one made up on the spot - in seconds really - to shoot down any speculation about there being an actual shortage. So one is left with researching these statements, and this, of course, takes much longer. I emailed a P.M. refinery and the contact there assured me that THEY make 100 oz bars. They are STILL in vogue enough to manufacture.

regards,

G.
miner49er
(10/10/2001; 13:11:26 MDT - Msg ID: 63312)
USAGOLD - 60's monetary expansion
Mike, good thoughts... I have a question for you or anyone regarding US Government spending during the 60s. Almost to a man, economists cite the Viet Nam War as the chief reason for the monetary expansion of that time.

1) Has anyone done any research to compare the actual amounts spent on the war effort vs. the new spending for Johnson's Great Society programs?

2) Which would have the greatest negative effect on those watching from the outside? A war that ultimately will be held to be a sort of "one-off" event (unless it should escalate significantly), or large on-going and increasing outlays required for these new programs that have no end?

While Europeans were rightly pensive about any of our confrontations with Communist, particularly Soviet, expansion, and the at-that-time very real apprehensions about a nuclear conflict, I had always kind of felt that anyone taking a dispassionate view would discount the social spending as being more harmful than the war.

Any thoughts...?

Best regards,
miner
sourdough
(10/10/2001; 13:44:57 MDT - Msg ID: 63313)
oil supply
American oil companies hot and heavy on the takeover trail for Canadian oil property.
I cant` help wondering how the numbers would add up if the U.S government factored in the costs $$$ of keeping the oil pipeline open from the middle east, (defence,handouts etc.etc.) and decided to apply this money to accessing the Alberta tar sands.
Could they then deal with the present "war situation", give the palestinians their chunk of land, withdraw and let the Europeans worry about Arab oil supllies.
Would that take care of any worries of oil priced in Euro`s instead of dollars?
Netking
(10/10/2001; 13:52:08 MDT - Msg ID: 63314)
Spot Silver Dead Cat Burial Formation
http://www.321gold.com/charts/spotsilverdeadcat.htmlSome humour (per link) in the spot silver chart.
------------------------------------------------------------
Galearis - "The Missing 100 Oz'ers". . . Hmmm, could be that Kodie, Sunny Spot & Ted have just changed their 1,000 Oz'ers into 100's & we've now got a national shortage(smile), but wait there's more (literally) "sources" indicate China silver exports have been increased by ANOTHER 600% from last months increase. . .
USAGOLD
(10/10/2001; 14:40:22 MDT - Msg ID: 63315)
Miner 49er. . .
I think when the president said "This will be a long war", it set off alarm systems in the minds of economic and financial analysts all over the globe, and just as your smoke detector doesn't know whether it is being set off by a kitchen fire or me lighting a cigar underneath it, so the monetary aggregates don't know where the stimulus is coming from. It just knows it's there.

If you think back the reduction in the deficit came from a increased tax revenues more than from any sort of government austerity, it makes you wonder how all this is going to play out at a time when tax revenues have got to be falling and spending is going through the roof. That's why I always considered it good for a joke or two whenever the Clinton administration or Congress tried to take the credit for the reduced (or eliminated) deficit. However, the military did take a good portion of the hit during the cut-back years. That's now going to change. "Readiness" will be the word -- that means military, civil defense, and an overall war-footing comparable to where we were in the 1940s. When you hear about the Coast Guard stopping and searching boats, the National Guard in the airports, etc., does anyone really think of this as "one-off" spending scheme? Not me. I think the American public will demand this sort of thing for years to come. And this will be on top of the bail outs to come.

Beyond that and to go to the heart of your question, back in the LBJ days there was an on-going debate about "Guns and Butter" -- whether or not the government could finance both a war and domestic social programs. The answer, of course, was "most certainly it can." The only problem was the money printed to cover both nearly destroyed the dollar and the world economy. The new "Guns" will apparently be the police action against the terrorist both at home and abroad. The new "Butter" is going to be Bail-Outs -- once again we will socialize our losses, or better put, corporate socialism.

But in order to get a handle on this and provide a more scientific answer (and I can't provide a hard number at the moment) has to do with the percentage increase in the (future) deficit(s) no matter where it comes from then and how that number relates as a percentage to overall GDP in both periods. That will give you a good idea whether or not we should expect similar results. Of course we are not going to know the current number for quite awhile so this isn't going to do us any good at the moment. I think you will find the velocity of money creation in the United States over the last several months to be way above any similar period in the 1960s-70s first because of recessionary fears and then because of 9/11/01. That will give you a hint where we are going.

And we haven't even begun to talk about the bail-outs still to come. The banks cannot be doing well in this scenario nor are the insurance companies that are paying out enormous claims. When you recognize how fragile the airlines were (they couldn't even withstand two weeks of bad business!!), one wonders how fragile other areas of the economy are.

All of this of course calls to question this whole "new paradigm" business that was being discussed routinely not more than two years ago -- a nifty piece of fiction that hundreds of thousands bought into and lost hundreds of millions of dollars chasing. How does that New Paradigm look now? The End of History. Remember that one. Another joke fostered by the academic left that Wall Street scooped up and threw into the national sales pitch seen everyday on CNBC.

This whole thing kind of leads up to a ancillary discussion of the current rally in the stock market. And I hope you don't mind my taking side stream here. The fact that we aren't launching an all out war in the Middle East has acted as a bromide to market that had a severely upset stomach not that long ago. Relief has arrived in the form of a financial Alka Seltzer -- there will be no overwhelming military conflict. (To me it is an irony that the political and press spinmeisters called a "war" -- in Viet Nam and Korea "police actions" and this "police action" against terrorism a "war.") However, there's still this troublesome ulcer underneath the welcome and temporary relief: The bottom of most bear markets comes at about 7 times earnings. The S&P is now at 35 times earnings. So you tell me how real this rally is and how much of it is a psychological relief for all the wrong reasons.

Wait until the reality of a protracted war sets in. I don't think defense stocks can carry the DJIA to 30,000.

So to make a long story short, Miner 49er, its all in the numbers, but we won't have all the numbers in for awhile, so you have to go with gut instinct, but it sure seems to be that we are back to "Guns and Butter."

I'm doing these between phone calls. Need to get some things done. This will be it for awhile. My best to all.

Randy tells me that the Contest Winners announcement is in our near future!! Congrats in advance to our winners. The three winners were great posts that Randy will be putting in the Hall of Fame. I appreciate the response we get to these contests. Maybe we'll have another soon. . . .MK
Aristotle
(10/10/2001; 15:01:17 MDT - Msg ID: 63316)
Oh, the places I've been! My sandals are in tatters!
Feels good to be back from my "sabbatical year" and taking a seat again here again at the table -- THE forum of all forums. This place is looking better than ever, and I can't tell you how much it FEELS like home!!! As sad as it is that our Trade Center towers have been laid low, I can draw strength seeing that the Castle and Round Table here is a solid as I can remember. Well done, MK.

To all my friends here: have you seen the 1986 Sean Connery movie "The Name of the Rose"? A top drawer mystery movie if ever there was one. Well, I've "been there, done that." Imagine -- if you can -- seeing me in the movie start at the base of the formidable tower (which, if you remember, serves as the abby's library) and then working my way to the top. Book by book, room by room, floor by floor. And that, my friends, was only how I spent my FREE time!

With all of my personal friendships now privately reaffirmed, shall we pick up where we left off? It was approximately at this time one year ago when a well-considered decision among revered kinsmen and colleagues sent me packing into the night -- into a world of deep study (and relative silence with respect to my customary spheres of expression!)

Let's see now, where were we? Oh yes!! Here we are... from October 18th, 2000. Let's ease back into this with a replay of orignial thoughts. (How much of this have you all finally come to terms with over the past year?)

** Chimps, Champs, and Chumps **

I enjoyed the brief detour of the forum on Monday (I guess that would be Oct. 16, 2000) into the realm of personality types -- with the Gold-related hypothesis that Gold advocates are most likely of the *NT* type. Dabbling with a linked on-line testing page revealed me to be distinctly a type INTP --for whatever that's worth to anyone keeping score.

Which brings me to my point. Any population can be divided and subdivided yet further based on the presence or absence of any given trait. In one rough cut we can focus on those who think independently about monetary affairs, and the remainder will be those who just go along with the flow.

I call this latter group the "chimps" in this post because they see no evil, hear no evil, and speak no evil regarding the dollar, and are contentedly guided by the credo "Monkey see, monkey do." They follow the directions of their neighbors, whom at this point in time have been conditioned to consider Gold in low esteem. Obviously, this post is not written for the chimps--they aren't visitors to this forum.

Of the group of thinkers who see the problems with the dollar and the special merits to be found in Gold, we can divide them further into the physical "champs" and the paper "chumps." The champs are the ones who stand behind their thoughts by acquiring the Metal that they support in principle. This post isn't written for the champs, either -- they're already on the right track.

Hello, chumps. You guys comprise the sad group that is "so close and yet so far." Your good independent thinking has steered you toward the merits of Gold, yet you have undermined yourself in an attempt to capture additional paper through leverage based on the proclivity of me and my fellow champs to drive up Gold prices through our wise demand for Metal. Sorry. It doesn't work that way--as I (and many others here) have explained time and again, and most recently this past weekend.

What you chumps fail to recognize is that the Gold itself is the objective and desirable monetary wealth--as a safe and meaningful alternative to dollars which are subject to devaluation and collapse. And most importantly, you also fail to recognize the true role of your leveraged paper gold (futures) within the Gold market. The crux of this entire post is contained in the next two sentences, so open your mind and think objectively, setting aside briefly your indignance that words on a computer monitor have called you a chump.

Long positions in paper gold are NOT used, as you might like to think, as a "fire insurance policy" among institutions having vested interests in the status quo, whereby such a long derivative position would be expected (by you) to compensate them for rising Gold prices and weaker dollars. Instead, these institutions use the offering of paper gold (and its influence on price discovery) as a WET BLANKET to keep Gold from catching fire in the first place.(!)

By allowing yourself to miss the big picture, you are being played for a chump. The tragedy is not that you are throwing your paper currency away on paper gold, but rather that you approached so close to the brink of truth, and yet will likely have nothing material to show for your journey and efforts. It's not too late to stop beating your dead horse and take your place on the growing bandwagon headed down the Gold trail--that is, if you're not too consumed by your own pride and determination to stay with your horse until it regains its breath. My prediction is that the vultures will have your flesh too, because you'll let them.

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle
Econoclast
(10/10/2001; 15:10:12 MDT - Msg ID: 63317)
Aristotle!!!
Between here and the trail, now we're really cooking!
miner49er
(10/10/2001; 15:56:05 MDT - Msg ID: 63318)
USAGOLD - 60's Monetary Expansion
Thanks, Mike ... I really was just positing a question from historical curiosity, namely whether the markets were more concerned with our Viet Nam expenses, which were likely to end eventually (hence what I was referring to as "one-off"), or if they perceived our monetary expansion to accelerate into perpetuity because of the Great Society social initiative. And certainly, post Viet Nam, our military spending did decline appreciably, while social programs bit off bigger and more indigestible bites every year -- contributing to the upset stomach...;-)

But I got a whole lot more...! Of course I don't mind you taking a "side-stream." I appreciate your comments. If we did want to contrast the two periods around the touchpoint of "Guns and Butter," as you define them below, then we might draw the following distinctions:

Viet Nam (60's "Guns") and the Great Society (60's "Butter") were two very separate entities, with different forces inside of government at odds in pushing the respective agendas. Whereas now, increased police action and readiness (00's "Guns") and financial/commercial bailouts (00's "Butter") seem to be presented very much enmeshed, and perhaps meant to become inseparable.

Maybe the intent is to leverage each against the other. We need the economy appearing strong to, in any way, attempt to pass off the immense spending requirements for the "Guns" portion, while at the same time attempting to rally the economy around the boon of a military build-up.

Surely some very internal analysis must view the precarious market situation as a critical front to defend at all costs -- literally. As a TRUE financial meltdown, followed up with any further internal tragedies would leave us reeling. The financial stuff alone will create suffering here not seen since the 30s (and I believe much worse). In this regard, we might still receive further accommodation from external financial entities that heretofore were ready to make an exit from what they know to be an imminent dollar crisis.

At any rate, the 60's - 00's contrast does serve to demonstrate that this time it "AIN'T deja vu all over again..."

Best regards,
miner49er


Aristotle!! Haven't read your post yet, but it's great to see you back. I've never corresponded with you, but have benefited greatly from your previous postings... Welcome back!
R Powell
(10/10/2001; 16:07:22 MDT - Msg ID: 63319)
Aristotle
Welcome back from your year away.
It's been a long while since anyone entered the door throwing rocks at the paper traders among us. I had hoped that old, unproductive division of physical holders as good and anyone holding paper as bad was buried once and for all.
It created nothing but discord and is fueled by the same blind bias that justifies terrorists. Some of us hold both physical and paper positions. Are we to be considered schizophrenic or are all traders simply considered stupid in your opinion?
Physical for safety and satisfaction.
Paper positions for leveraged profits
Get you some of each.
Proud to be a chump!!!
Rich
AllanC
(10/10/2001; 16:46:22 MDT - Msg ID: 63320)
Welcome back
Aristotle: Your presence has been missed. A heartfelt welcome home!

BR549: Your "favorite liberal"...moi?!!
BR549
(10/10/2001; 17:02:59 MDT - Msg ID: 63321)
@Aristotle & AllanC--
Welcome back to both of you!

Regards,

BF549
HOOSIER GOLDBUG
(10/10/2001; 17:17:28 MDT - Msg ID: 63322)
Welcome Back and Many Thanks!
Welcome back all posters who were away!
Thanks to all for all the invaluable insight, here and on the GOLD TRAIL!
Canuck
(10/10/2001; 18:10:20 MDT - Msg ID: 63323)
Aristotle is back!!
Aristotle is back, well I will be damned.

I have been failing, I believe I am a chump. I have been wheeling and dealing in gold stocks trying to time trades and trying to increase fiat reserves.

I have been slowly accumulating physical and realize it is retaining value; why can't I let go of this paper stranglehold?

I am tickled pink that you are back, I sincerely hope that you have had a good year off. There has been a void on the forum.

Does "think of shorting the dollar" still apply? I assume more so than ever.

Patiently awaiting your wisdom.

Canuck.

dragonfly
(10/10/2001; 18:30:08 MDT - Msg ID: 63324)
RETIREMENT:UNPATRIOTIC?
Did anyone else see this banner on MSNBC a few nights ago just above where the ticker tape is? They had it up for at least 15 minutes while a bunch of junior talking heads were discussing whatever. The banner was large and read - RETIREMENT:UNPATRIOTIC? I clicked the sound on a few times to see if the audio had any correlation but to no avail.

Our new slogan at work is - 80 and Out.

Some of the younger guys are wincing over that notion while some of us older guys have already figured out the deal in store (bottom of the deck - you know) and are planning our various side-stepping routines. Gold plays prominently for those with independent minds.

Doubt there will be much Butter this time around.

dragonfly
(10/10/2001; 18:39:47 MDT - Msg ID: 63325)
Welcome Back Aristotle
Aristotle, a hearty Welcome Back. Now don't be bashful. Let us know what's on your mind (smile).

How many mad monks did you have to dispense with to reach the tower's heights?

Did you find it?

Warm Regards,
dragonfly
dragonfly
(10/10/2001; 19:05:02 MDT - Msg ID: 63326)
Hey Black Blade
http://emperors-clothes.com/







Sir Black Blade,

A better scenario would be an informed protester who poses a clear view of the actual circumstances we all find ourselves in and a rational passer-by who's inclination is not to set up the protester for an act of offensive violence. I think your scenario is a form of ACTIVE GRASSHOPPERISM in that those who have willfully forgotten the past, conveniently misinterpret the present and plunge into a dangerously misguided future will end up getting what they may be secretly hoping for -- a Road Warrior kind of world where all those silly people get what they deserve. Sheesh. Read a few of the articles from the link above and acquaint yourself with the Ed Sullivan version of global events - you know, The Really Big Show. Especially "Why Washington Wants Afghanistan" and "Afghan War Made in Washington" (1998 interview with Zbigniew Brzezinski wherein he reveals some previously obscure truths). I think this is highly relevant to GOLD and our ability to use it for something other than bribes and emergencies. Cheers.


Netking
(10/10/2001; 19:29:08 MDT - Msg ID: 63327)
'Bunker Busters' may speed up the job . . .
http://www.rense.com/general14/bunkerbusting.htmThe B61-11 Bunker Buster (Nuclear Tipped) is designed to burrow through layers of concrete by way of a "shock-coupling effect." The design directs the force of the B61-11's explosive energy downward, destroying everything buried beneath it to a depth of several hundred meters, according to a story in the March 2, 1997 issue of Defence News.

With air supremacy having been achieved by the Allied forces in Afghanistan, the will of the Taliban leadership & their command and control systems bunkers may now be quite easily neutralised without the fallout of a potentially expensive & prolonged ground campaign being necessary, further alienating the West. Given also the increased quality of surveillance recently put in place by the USA over the region this task in Afghanistan may now be completed reasonably quickly & without too much collateral damage, lets all hope so yes.
- Netking
RS
(10/10/2001; 19:30:41 MDT - Msg ID: 63328)
Aristotle, it's a pleasant surprise indeed to see you here again.
I hope your time away was pleasant and that you're well in body and spirit.
Black Blade
(10/10/2001; 20:17:11 MDT - Msg ID: 63329)
Forbes Body Count
http://www.forbes.com/2001/01/30/layoffs.html
The "Bone Pile" growth has accelerated once again. Now even more nonessential "Bags O' Bones" are cast aside as companies realize that the "Bottom Line" really does count - Pro Forma accounting not withstanding. In a word - "GRIM"
FluorideCommie
(10/10/2001; 20:19:45 MDT - Msg ID: 63330)
Goering quote nomination as funniest post of the year
Hermann's a hoot alright. If you think that's funny, you should read Mein Kampf! It'll have you in stitches.
Cavan Man
(10/10/2001; 20:43:57 MDT - Msg ID: 63331)
Hello Aristotle
Made my day! Your PGA in arms....CM (INTJ)
Black Blade
(10/10/2001; 21:15:11 MDT - Msg ID: 63332)
Osama Bin Laden - Video
http://www.newgrounds.com/portal/view.php?id=33641
A nice fuzzy warm video of how to win the hearts and minds of Osama and friends.
Pizz
(10/10/2001; 21:32:23 MDT - Msg ID: 63333)
1st Post - A question or two and a couple comments.
Don't really know how to introduce myself, but I've been reading and following posts here for about a month - wish to thank all the contributors - there's some great, inovative, and sincere minds posting to this forum. Figured it was about time to try to contribute. Here goes....

Question: Why the huge difference in open interest between the DEC and FEB Comex gold futures? I'm an old options trader (wiser but not richer thru my efforts- but thats a whole other subject) and realize there's more action in the current months, but the time premium is extremely small for such a discrepancy, and from all the comments on "paper gold" I don't think the market is that thin. Must be a simple answer I haven't heard or read. Would someone please comment and/or educate me a little?

There's my two questions, and here's a couple comments.

I haven't seen too many posts on any forums from what would appear (by my interpretation of the content) to be from corporate financial decisions makers (Editorial/Promotional observations on Bubblevision(who coined that term anyway? Good Job!!!!)don't qualify). If there were, it would go something like this:


Readers, I don't think anyone has yet to realize just how bad the fourth quarter numbers are going to be. The day after the attacks, any CFO worth his salt (l) shut down any and all discretionary corporate spending; (2) cut back or eliminated credit to marginal accounts and (3)implemented procedures to slow-down payments. (One small $40M a year corporation by deferring vendor payments 45 to 60 ( more???)days can generate 3M+ cash, (putting any number of mom and pop businesses on bankrupsy's door).

Nothing has happened to the supply of money, but the velocity has DRAMATICALLY slowed. I don't care how low rates go or how much the FED pumps reserves into the banks, we are in one mega-liquidity crunch. (Why are banks going to loan all this cheap money to businesses that aren't going to be around in 6 months?)

Short term (3 to 6 months) we are going to have some pretty serious deflation.

You may agree or disagree, but if I'm right, what happens to paper and physical gold?

(Snuck in a few more questions!!)

PIZZ
BR549
(10/10/2001; 21:41:59 MDT - Msg ID: 63334)
@Hermann---
The only quotes that I would find more irrelevant or disgusting of yours and/or your fellow advocates to what is happening in the world in this century would be those of Karl Marx.
Black Blade
(10/10/2001; 22:40:28 MDT - Msg ID: 63335)
Energy Crisis and Precious Metals

By the year 2010 the world will have consumed over 900 billion bbl of oil. That is about the peak production of world oil (Hubbert Peak). The simple fact is that we are running out of "Cheap Oil." There have been no "Super Giants" discovered since the early 1970's and none are likely to be discovered. Yet we continue to consume more oil than ever and emerging third world countries like Mainland China will continue to grow and demand their share. The price of oil will continue to rise higher.

Another point to make is that now that we have moved into the "Information Age" with ever more powerful computers and the Internet, energy consumption has risen nearly 16% since 1993. More and more we are tied into the Internet. The average "server farm" consumes as much energy as a small US city. So far it is only the current Recession that has kept higher energy costs in check by reducing energy demand. Every postwar recession has been preceded by an energy crisis and this recession was no different. In fact it will likely get much worse.

There is a push to explore for ultra cheap alternative energy sources. The current fad is hydrogen. The problem here is that virtually all hydrogen production will come from hydrocarbons - that is oil and gas. If the world is to emerge from the current Deepening Recession, then "Cheap Energy" must be made available. The prospects do not look very promising.

You might think that the oil picture looks grim, but the natural gas situation is much much worse. Since January 2000 natural gas use has increased up as much as 200%. It is no wonder that communities such as those in California saw utility rates triple. Most of the problem was due to reregulation and stupidity on part of bungling bureaucrats and politicians as well as misguided environmentalism and NIMBY syndrome. Even though a quick build up of some minor natural gas fired power plants has been accomplished over the last few months, there is still the problem of declining natural gas exploration and production and decaying infrastructure. In a sense the energy crisis is still with us but simply out of sight until the demand surge. Economic recovery cannot proceed until the energy supply issue is fully addressed.

What does this energy crisis have to do with the precious metals? Plenty! We can look at each group and see that there is something to be gained in each group (PGMs, Silver, and Gold) in the coming years whether it is profit or portfolio insurance.

PGMs - (Platinum Groups Metals):

The platinum groups metals include platinum (of course), palladium, rhodium, osmium, iridium, and ruthenium. Platinum is far rarer than gold, however, it is also an industrial metal used in government mandated pollution catalysts, electronics, jewelry, bullion coin and in the future a vital component of hydrogen fuel cell technology. The focus of alternative energy is now on hydrogen fuel cells. This also means a greater reliance on natural gas.

Silver:

Silver is perhaps the best electrical conductor for the price. It is used for electrical components and contacts, jewelry, bullion, and in the future it looks to be a vital component in energy efficient super conducting wire. The technology appears to be feasible. The real kicker is that it requires nearly one ton of silver per mile. Silver stockpiles are severely short of the metal if the transmission grid is to be upgraded with this new technology. There simply is not enough above ground silver for this purpose, however, it will likely drive silver production. This is likely to put a lot of upward pressure on silver prices. The only real player at present is American Superconductor, however, others are likely to research other energy efficient uses for silver as well.

Gold:

Gold is another currency that competes with fiat and that alone will act as a safety net and diversifier. It is also counter-cyclical to other investments and that makes gold an excellent form of portfolio insurance. Gold is used as money and jewelry. In times of economic uncertainty gold has been a "Lifeboat" to sail the stormy seas of recessions and depressions. During the 1970's when energy crises played havoc on the world's economies, gold prices rose to stabilize the portfolios of many. During the Great Depression when physical gold was illegal in the US (except for jewelry and numismatic coin), gold proxy Homestake mining stock increased in value as most all other equities sank to a mere fraction of their value. Today we have the option to legally hold physical bullion to balance out our investments.

The "energy Crisis" and the quest for abundant "Cheap Energy" that provides several opportunities with hard assets such as precious metals for investment and insurance. The energy crisis is far from over. If we are to emerge from recession we will need "Cheap Energy" sources to kick start manufacturing. That not only means additional exploration and production of hydrocarbons, but also the upgrade of the energy transmission grid, more pipelines, more power plants, more research into alternative fuels, and of course more PGM and silver production for new energy technology. As we move forward through these perilous times, gold investment for portfolio insurance purposes is also a must. We face a Brave New World as we continue to live during "Interesting Times."

- Black Blade
tg
(10/10/2001; 23:08:43 MDT - Msg ID: 63336)
(No Subject)
www.dailyreckoning.comGreenspan has brought more water to the horses but they are no longer thirsty. Forget inflation, a Japanese style deflation is upon us. And please don't tell me its different, because its worse. Both Japanese and American corporations are still exposed to too much debt with sinking asset values all about them. However at least the Japanese public had savings to fall back on, no such thing with the American public.

Snipit from link above-

"Rate cuts are like martinis. The first one really feels good. The next few are sort of ho-hum. By the time one comes to the tenth, everyone is numb."

After 9 cuts, short rates have gotten so low that banks can borrow below the rate of inflation. But people are numb to lower rates. "Banks are not increasing the size of their loan portfolios, as nobody is lining up to borrow," says the Mogambo Guru. "This is the old 'pushing on a string,' where nobody wants to borrow money at any interest rate."

"Rising consumer debt may stagger households, economy," warns a headline from the Chicago Tribune. Then, a piercing insight: "More debt and fewer paychecks spell trouble because the combination pushes Americans to rethink their free-spending ways."

Uh...yes...

Rate cuts do nothing for credit cardholders. They are still paying 14%. Small wonder credit card delinquencies just hit a 25-year high...FHA loan delinquencies reached a new high, too, in the 2nd quarter - a little over 10%.

But a Fox poll says 71% of Americans are still optimistic about the economy. The dumb schmucks."

ski
(10/10/2001; 23:09:28 MDT - Msg ID: 63337)
Possible Silver Explanation


Was just sitting around thinking of possible reasons for silver's poor price performance over the past couple of days. This is nothing more than just a wild idea to play around with....

There are several bits of information that I have assumed are true:
1. The largest known stockpile of silver is under the WTC.
2. No one can put their hands on it for at least several months.
3. Silver is in short supply and known stockpiles are expected to be gone in the next year or so.
4. Silver buying since 9-11 has greatly increased. 5. Mom & Pop coin shops are running out of silver.

Now on to the COMEX. It seems to me that there are 4 catagories of individuals that trade on the COMEX where silver prices are set.
1. Traders that are short PAPER silver.
2. Traders that are long PAPER silver.
3. Individuals that want to sell PHYSICAL silver.
4. Individuals that want to buy PHYSICAL silver.

When everything is normal at the COMEX, all 4 catagories of individuals are actively determining the spot price of silver. However, it seems to me that the "INDIVIDUALS THAT WANT TO BUY PHYSICAL SILVER" have little reason to be a part of current trading. After all, delivery, condition & avaliability of physical silver are all in doubt. With PHYSICAL BUYERS being under-represented at the COMEX, isn't it logical to expect spot prices to fall??

Readers should be forewarned that I do not have any COMEX trading experience. However, it does seem to me that I have reached a logical conclusion to at least partially explain falling silver prices.


Mr Gresham
(10/11/2001; 00:55:13 MDT - Msg ID: 63338)
Aristotle! Aristotle!
Huzzah! You're back! (Now we can REALLY get cookin'!)View Yesterday's Discussion.

The CoinGuy
(10/11/2001; 01:23:43 MDT - Msg ID: 63339)
Aristotle...ALL
In the beginning....

All joking aside, GREAT to see you post. Now only if you could bring "The Stranger" aboard full time, and a few spikes to 338.00, so I could see those posts from Gandalf I love so much, the board would be complete. Boy, those memories of a September not so long ago...I love this place.

Thanks Michael,

The CoinGuy

P.S. FOA. Your last two (major)posts were top notch...It seems as though you're on the top of your game, and I appreciate every sentence. That goes for you too Pala...well you know who you are, but does everybody else??????????? Truly a "wasted talent" in my eyes. Naive as they may be.
Old Yeller
(10/11/2001; 01:51:45 MDT - Msg ID: 63340)
The CIA calls this blowback
http://www.cdt.org/publications/pp_7.10.shtml#2
I call it something else,which in the interests of taste and decorum,I will not put into words.

War on terrorism occurs on many fronts,they're not stretching the truth on that one.

One really wonders on how all this could be put together so quickly and breezed by the public.Reminds me of a magician'
s M.O.
site steward
(10/11/2001; 02:23:47 MDT - Msg ID: 63341)
The moment you've all been waiting for! Bring out the GOLD!
http://www.usagold.com/hall/September11.htmlHullo! What's this? THREE gold sovereigns have been brought up from the USAGOLD Treasury?? But MK's original contest announcement promised ONE pre-1933 British Sovereign for the contest winner, and one each tenth-ounce gold Eagles for TWO runners up. (Sometimes I think these carrier pigeons are writing their own notes as they fly back and forth between Centennial and this remote Tower outpost.)

Ahhhh... but now I see. The top three posts that most influenced the judges were each of unique character that defied comparison and subsequent ranking. Therefore, the judges squeezed the vaults of Centennial's Treasury room for two sovereigns to upgrade the prizes all to equal status.

In hindsight, the contest was nearly over as soon as it started. Solomon Weaver won a gold sovereign with the very FIRST post offered after the contest announcement was made. But in truth, the contest wasn't really over until it was over, because Simply Me won a gold sovereign for the very LAST post entered momments before the arrival of the entry deadline. And in the midst of it all, Usul won gold for a post that is on par with the sort of material that we strive to provide within the domain of the Gilded Opinion. (With Usul's permission, I would like to add this post as a page there. What say you, Sir Sovereign-winner?)

Congratulations are in order for the Forum at large for being the cyber meeting place for so many quality thinkers. The abundant entries were all a pleasure to read and absorb for their insight and wisdom. Thank you, all!

A reproduction of the gold-winning entries can be found at the URL given above. Congratulations again to Usul, Simply Me, and Solomon Weaver. I will send back this carrier pigeon with instructions for Marie to prepare your prizes for shipment. Enjoy your gold! You've earned it!

Oh, and in case you were wondering whether or not "The World Is a Different Place Today Than It was 9/10/01"..... one winner said TRUE, and two said FALSE. Looks like gold serves both positions well!

(And that's probably the lesson to take away from this whole affair.)
Pandagold
(10/11/2001; 05:31:32 MDT - Msg ID: 63342)
Don't fight Goldman Sachs
What have we learned? well, I don't know about you, but I have merely learned more to confirm what I knew before.

Cousin, across the pond, you have a saying - *You can't fight City Hall" I believe that is one of the few hold fast clich�s worth remembering. But, there is a more powerful institution than City Hall, or the US Government. That, dear cousin, is Goldman Sachs. So, I adapt the saying to - 'Don't fight Goldman Sachs'.

When the leading analyst for that institution (Dear Abbie) stuck her neck out, when all the markets were crashing, and economic doom and gloom, spreading like the great plague, and said (I understand) that the markets will be up by the end of the year, you've got to ask yourself, does she know something we lesser mortals don't. Watch this market!

She has not recanted that view even since September 11th - though that could have given her a get out. Please correct me anyone here if I am wrong because I don't get the media all day, every day, business programs that you do.

Governments, yes,even presidents, get to know just enough what is good for them. They are in the dark until someone switches their light on so that they can read the prepared script (this is one I made earlier for you, Mr President, sir).

When Goldman Sachs, and its associated network which includes Greenspan, and Rubin et al, is acting so obviously, except to the terminally brain dead, in the gold market, and that action so apparent in being to hold the price in check, you fight it at your peril.

Is the dollar vulnerable? Of course it is, but who would take on the dollar? The only people capable of taking on the ' World Casino' now 'own' it, and they know all the answers, and the questions.


So what do we do about Gold? Forget the doomsday scenarios - they won't happen, well not in the old ways. Forget about all this money being pumped into the system - it can be sucked up just as easily as it is poured out. Will there be inflation? Of course there will, down the road, it's been going on in one form or another all the time - it's just not touched the breadbasket too much as yet.


I'm afraid that gold will be held down for some time to just where the very strong mines can survive. This will force more acquisitions - picking the weak up at knock down, and give away, prices.

There is another reason too - TPTB do not want any tributaries diverting money away from the two main currencies - dollar and Euro. The Euro has to get firm on its feet first. (I've said this so many times in my posts).The Euro will be a strong support currency for the dollar to permit the dollar to enjoy some R&R.

From sometime in 2002 gold will be permitted to rise - just as any commodity will be rising ( plus everything else, I fear). As you say, no runaway stuff, but a slow steady climb in stages, till it finds its true equilibrium - being what 'they' determine shall be its equilibrium. Don't EVER have the illusion that we have, or ever will have a free market - in anything of consequence.

It will be after a big down turn, when the last of the old goldbugs is lying on its back with its feet in the air. (said that before too). They won't mind then, everything else will be in place, and anyway, they already own most of it.
Cavan Man
(10/11/2001; 06:19:39 MDT - Msg ID: 63343)
ECB's "line in the sand"
European Central Bank Keeps Benchmark Rate at
3.75% (Update1)
By Rainer Buergin

Vienna, Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank kept its benchmark
interest rate at 3.75 percent after policy makers suggested last week rates are
low enough to fend off recession.

The central bank reduced borrowing costs on Sept. 17 -- matching a cut by the
U.S. Federal Reserve the same day -- to help restore confidence after terrorists
attacked the U.S. The Fed has lowered rates nine times this year.

The ECB, which has missed its goal of keeping inflation below 2 percent for 15
months, has only pared rates four times since it took charge of rates in 1999.
ECB President Wim Duisenberg said on Saturday the current ``policy is the right
one.'' The risk is that the economy will stall while the ECB waits, executives
said.

``The ECB would be wise to give a clear signal with a significant cut in interest
rates,'' Wolfgang Dondorf, chief executive of Pfeiffer Vacuum Technology AG, a
producer of vacuum pumps, said in an interview. The attacks ``will definitely
worsen the current economic slump.''

European companies have announced about 185,000 job losses this year. The
Dow Jones Stoxx 50 Index is down 23 percent this year. The dozen countries
that share the euro grew 0.1 percent in the second quarter, the slowest pace in
more than five years.

Duisenberg will hold his monthly news conference at 2:30 p.m., Frankfurt time.

`Industry Paralyzed'

DaimlerChrysler AG, Fiat SpA and KLM Royal Dutch Airlines NV said sales will
suffer after the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. Alitalia SpA
said business is down by 30 percent since the Sept. 11 attacks on New York
and Washington.

``The industry is paralyzed,'' Austrian Airlines AG Chief Executive Vagn
Soerensen said in an interview. ``The terrible things that happened on Sept. 11
made people travel less and everything that's happening in Afghanistan has the
same effect.''

European rates are at their lowest in almost a year and a half. Three quarters of
the 22 analysts surveyed yesterday by Bloomberg News expected a reduction
before the end of the month.

The implied yield on the three-month Euribor interest-rate futures contract
maturing in December rose 3 basis points to 3.42 percent. That's 33 basis points
below the ECB's key rate.

Unlike the Fed, which also has a mandate to boost employment, the ECB's main
task is to combat inflation. ``They're conservative and very different from the Fed,''
said Stephane Deo, an economist at UBS Warburg in Paris. ``It's too close to
the last time for them to move again.''

The euro was little changed after the decision at 90.63 U.S. cents, compared
with 90.65 before the announcement. The yield on the 3 3/4 percent German note
due in 2003 rose 3 basis points to 3.42 percent.

Inflation

Inflation slowed for a third month in August -- to 2.7 percent from a year ago, after
3.4 percent in May -- and may do so again in September. The German inflation
rate fell to the lowest in a year, a report today showed. Price increases also
slowed in Italy.

Inflation ``fell below the ceiling of 2 percent in France in August and I have good
reasons to hope that this tendency will be confirmed elsewhere in Europe,''
French Finance Minister Laurent Fabius said yesterday. The ECB has ``room to
maneuver,'' he said.

The ECB's 18 policy makers next meet on Oct. 25.

Axa SA, the world's largest insurer, plans to consider job cuts, reduce computer
spending and limit the travel of its employees as part of an effort to lower
expenses by as much as 1 billion euros ($910 million) next year.

Like rival insurers, AXA is facing a business slowdown as slumping stock
markets reduce gains from investments and the fees they earn from managing
mutual funds and other savings plans. The Paris-based company also is
estimating losses of $550 million from the terrorist attacks.

Groupe Danone SA said sales in the third quarter rose a less- than-expected 3.7
percent. That's below the 5 percent to 7 percent range the company targets for
annual growth. Danone shares fell 8 percent today.

Stalled Economies

The U.S. economy, destination of about 14 percent of the region's exports,
probably shrank at a 0.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter and is likely to
contract at 1 percent in the fourth, said economists surveyed by Bloomberg
News. American companies are the largest foreign investors in Europe.

Nexans SA, the world's second-largest maker of cables for office computer
networks, said yesterday it expects profit to fall this year after the attacks
prompted customers to delay orders.

German unemployment in September rose for an eighth time this year to the
highest measure in 15 months, adjusted for seasonal swings. Europe's largest
economy didn't grow at all in the second quarter, forcing companies to fire
workers.

French companies grew more pessimistic about economic prospects, the Paris
Chamber of Commerce's business confidence survey, compiled after the Sept.
11 attacks, showed. Confidence was the lowest since the survey began, 11
years ago.




�2001 Bloomberg L.P. All rights reserved. Terms of Service, Privacy Policy and Trademarks.
Black Blade
(10/11/2001; 06:55:14 MDT - Msg ID: 63344)
Morning Numbers
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
As dawn breaks in the US, we see that the USD is much stronger against other world currencies, gold gets ripped for another big loss over -$3.10 an ounce, oil and Natural gas jumps higher. However, the Global Economy is still in a Recession. There are a lot of hurdles to get over. At least PM insurance is cheaper this morning.
Black Blade
(10/11/2001; 07:04:08 MDT - Msg ID: 63345)
Seasonal Factors Slow Jobless Claims
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/011011/business_economy_jobs_dc_1.html
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans lining up for first-time unemployment benefits declined last week, the Labor Department said on Thursday in a report skewed by seasonal factors but still showing a labor market shaken after the Sept. 11 attacks. The number of initial jobless claims fell by 67,000 for the week ended Oct. 6, to a seasonally adjusted 468,000. The department attributed the decline to seasonal factors designed to suppress increases in claims typical at the beginning of the quarter.

Unadjusted data showed that the number of initial claims, already higher than usual, posted a smaller-than-expected rise of 26,130 claims to 426,525 for the week. Despite the decline seen in the seasonally adjusted figures, the report still showed a weakened labor market.


Black Blade: "Dem Bones, Dem Bones, Dem Dry Bones �." The trend in the growing "Bone Pile" suggests that it will continue to grow higher especially in the face of Third Quarter corporate losses.
Spartacus
(10/11/2001; 07:23:14 MDT - Msg ID: 63346)
Pressure
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/01_40/b3751715.htm
Business Week
Mobilizing the Moneymen
October 1, 2001

"Getting the ECB's president, Wim Duisenberg, to go along with interest-rate cuts was trickier. The ECB had a scheduled monetary policy meeting on Sept. 13, two days after the disaster. But Duisenberg--who had been criticized for his reluctance to cut rates with a slowdown looming--had told a European Parliament committee the day before that the bank was sticking to its usual position: Price stability is its priority. Parliamentarians were dismayed. Sure enough, the ECB held its key rate at 4.25% the next day.

On Sept. 17, Duisenberg reiterated his price-stability mantra in a speech. Markets were perplexed. Later that day, the Fed cut rates by a halfpoint. According to ECB sources, Greenspan called Duisenberg before the announcement to get him to go along with the rate cut. The pressure must have been immense. The ECB cut rates a half-point soon after, throwing market players off-guard. Now, say market sources, Duisenberg's days may be numbered, as bankers who lost money on the reversal pressure European policymakers to get him to step down."
Cavan Man
(10/11/2001; 07:31:59 MDT - Msg ID: 63347)
Don't fight Goldman Sachs
I think the reasons for US equities responding the way they have are twofold.

1. Aggregate money supply
2. (more importantly) American's 401K plans have become the defacto social security fund. The US equity market is underwritten yes indeed.

A long time ago I had a brief discussion with Aristotle about BEARX. He cautioned me that the US stockmarket might just inflate to infinity and beyond. I do believe he is right (still).

As for "TPTB"; I hold fast to the writings and theories of site steward, A/FOA and Aristotle. Their commentaries for me are very rational, educated and well thought out positions on the subjects discussed here.

The minions of the prince of darkness certainly do walk among us on this earth but as in any medieval kingdom, there are countless intrigues in the palace pitting faction against faction, father against son etc. all designed to achieve better position relative to the competition. "TPTB" are continuously in conflict among themselves.
Pandagold
(10/11/2001; 08:16:43 MDT - Msg ID: 63348)
Cavan Man
Cavan Man: These are NOT the princes of darkness. They are the light. Did you not read my post?. You can put forward all the reasons, and there are many. But who created those reasons, for they are the ones who KNOW. They are the light

I say again. Don't fight Goldman Sachs. I also stick by what I have said about where gold is going, and if Aristotle or anyone else says differently (I had a long verbal fight with Kaplan over this,before he threw in the towel) We will eventually see who is right.

I know you, and many others do not like the way I right - too forthright, no flowery words -you think I just shoot from the hip.

When I am having a little fun like the possibility of Bin Laden being dead, I let you know its fun. We must have a little humour in our life. Same with 'The Pacifist' of Black Blades.

But when I am being serious I also make it clear.

It is not to change anyone's mind, as what you believe is up to the individual. You can take it, or leave it.
But, I appreciate your comments
Happy trading, I'm doing fine, hope you are.

Sorry if this is rushed but the markets are open
Pandagold
(10/11/2001; 08:18:45 MDT - Msg ID: 63349)
Oo-oo-ps correction
Sorry about the 'right' it should have been write but no editing facility
RS
(10/11/2001; 08:19:15 MDT - Msg ID: 63350)
@ Cavan Man -
I agree completely...
"TPTB" are continuously in conflict among themselves."

I believe that if we are to have any clue about what is REALLY happening, it's very important for us to keep this in mind.

Also, I think it's important to realize that they (often) believe that what they are doing is for the good of all --ie: "The end justifies the means"
Cavan Man
(10/11/2001; 08:41:34 MDT - Msg ID: 63351)
Hey panda.....
I DO like what you write and, as long as gold is managed upwards next year fine with me. IMHO, the US market is a freak show. I prefer to spend my time not trading but building businesses. Don't forget that POG management has always failed--always. What's different this time my friend?
Pandagold
(10/11/2001; 08:48:27 MDT - Msg ID: 63352)
RS and Cavan Man


RS, I agree. I have said this many times that they believe that the end justifies the means. But so many people believe that - even bin Laden and co. I hope they are right, because there is no way to change things.

As for in-fighting - those are family squabbles, when the chips are down and its 'us against world' then they close ranks, or the 'Godfather' would step on them. Isn't that right George (Soros). (He nodded his head). No, he's not the Godfather, just one of the mavericks at times.

Pandagold
(10/11/2001; 08:53:36 MDT - Msg ID: 63353)
Cavan Man - What's different this time..........?
Will let you know what's different this time when I next write. Won't forget
Galearis
(10/11/2001; 09:34:50 MDT - Msg ID: 63354)
Goldman Sachs
Welcome back Aristotle!

Goldman Sachs has moved its bullion operation to London (?). I heard little speculation as to why. Any takers?

G.
uponroof
(10/11/2001; 10:10:45 MDT - Msg ID: 63355)
This time it's different!
Isn't that what our Wall St friends were crowing a few years ago? Not saying it can't be different.....

As I recall, Martin Anderson who may have some inside knowledge on this, stated that 2002 would be the year gold would be "allowed to rise".

On the other hand, the 1930's were not at all good for city hall, Goldman Sachs, or anybody else out in the cold Kondratieff winter.

3:1 There is a time for everything, and a season for every activity under heaven: 2 a time to be born and a time to die, a time to plant and a time to uproot, 3 a time to kill and a time to heal, a time to tear down and a time to build, 4 a time to weep and a time to laugh, a time to mourn and a time to dance, 5 a time to scatter stones and a time to gather them, a time to embrace and a time to refrain, 6 a time to search and a time to give up, a time to keep and a time to throw away, 7 a time to tear and a time to mend, a time to be silent and a time to speak,
8 a time to love and a time to hate, a time for war and a time for peace.....

even a time for Goldman Sachs to lose money?
sourdough
(10/11/2001; 10:31:23 MDT - Msg ID: 63356)
commodity supply
You don`t have to be a rocket scientist to see the "west" is terrified of gold getting out of control. Inflation likewise.
If I was BIN LADEN I would give some thought to sending my sleepers out to start shutting down mines. tailing dams, mills, etc. Gold, nickel, copper and other mines around the world could be shut down for months.
What would happen to commodity prices? A lot of money would be on the "wrong side".
I am surprised that potential environmental disasters haven`t received more attention.
uponroof
(10/11/2001; 10:45:47 MDT - Msg ID: 63357)
Armstrong on gold
http://www.armstrongdefensefund.org/martypei/tomorrow.htmCorrection: Martin Armstrong not Anderson, who BTW had this to say about gold on Nov 18, 1999:


"...Gold is also a key market to watch as to discerning the future that lies ahead. Our short-term out looked warned that the seasonal pattern for gold was an early summer low followed by a rally into an October high. That forecast has proven to be correct. Of course thanks to a lot of false information about shorts and conspiracies, a panic rally to the upside unfolded. To set the record straight, neither the company, any public fund, Japanese client or myself had any short positions in this market. The CFTC never made any such announcement about gold positions. Reports by such individuals on the Internet were simply made up like so many other things GATA reports. It is unfortunate that some Goldbugs cannot see gold in a global context preferring to view shadow conspiracies lurking around every corner. Just because our models have been bullish on stocks and bearish on gold for many years does not necessitate us being short 700 tons. Of course, such accusations come from people who are perpetually bullish and do not know how to be objective since they themselves always forecast based upon their own personal positions and assumes that everyone else does the same. These people may have helped to scare the gold mines out of their hedge positions, but nobody is really interested in gold right now to form an elite core of buyers. Once the hedgers were scared out, the buying dried up because unless the global timing is right, you cannot make a bull market out of a bear market no matter how loud you scream. Nevertheless, the potential for gold to return to a bull market is very much linked to the fate of the balance of the financial world on a clear correlated and objective basis. It has been our fear that gold would rally prematurely and fail to produce a sustainable trend once again going into 2000. In the past, every 8-year cycle in gold has produced an important low and the next target still remains 2000. A low under $252.50 next year will qualify for such an 8-year cycle event that should then be followed by a true bull market into 2007 peaking with the next Economic Confidence Model turning point. Given the fact that we have a Panic Cycle Year in 2005 and the underlying strength of our long-term momentum indicators, it would certainly appear that gold should exceed its 1980 high going into 2007. However, should gold rally into 2000 yet fail to break through the $400 barrier, this will prove to be the kiss of death and we must then be prepared for a collapse into 2003 before concluding this long-term bear market. Our Yearly Bearish Reversal remains at $192 and this is undoubtedly the major long-term support. Should this price level appear next year, then this could be the buy of the next century..."
****************************


Just heard on the American Advisor that the Swiss, still having their nose firmly planted up inside the rear end of the FED, have sold 9 tonnes over the last 10 day reporting period. It has been a non stop fire sale since 9/11.
Knallgold
(10/11/2001; 11:14:19 MDT - Msg ID: 63358)
GS
Roof,maybe the cabal did the WTC bombing to start a new bullmarket in stocks?("Ring the bell in the "tower(s)" at the bottom" to be sarcastic)

If not'something wen't out of the cabals total control.Sounds like a contradiction to me :-)

But Pandagold confirms FOA,there won't be a sustained higher POG in the Comex paper markets.FOA put the chances at 10%.

For the record,Pandagolds forecast (in Feb.?): POG this year 300$,next year 350-400$.I think we had 300,twice,at least intraday.

FOA expects 30'000$/3000-6000euros anytime the next five years,in a new physical-only Goldmarket.

One could think FOA is in the euro camp and Panda in the $ faction,fighting in the net for their side?But then,it must be a feud in pretence as they are in fact all from the same PE?

Regards,
hugo



smoker
(10/11/2001; 11:40:30 MDT - Msg ID: 63359)
knallgold message #63358
"Roof,maybe the cabal did the WTC bombing to start a new bullmarket in stocks?("Ring the bell in the "tower(s)" at the bottom"
to be sarcastic)"

i believe you are closer to the truth then you think.


as far as panda goes their may be some truth but panda is on to info. that the rest of us may not know.is she an insider like you said?
sourdough
(10/11/2001; 11:41:52 MDT - Msg ID: 63360)
further to my supply comment
How much anthrax would you need to drop into the ventilation shaft of those South African gold mines to shut them down?(FOREVER?) I worked underground in 3 mines and even a threat of such an event, might cause me to consider changing my occupation. The powers that be had best be considering the possibility. Swiss francs could be very popular, what currency/commodity does bin laden store his wealth in.
site steward
(10/11/2001; 11:55:16 MDT - Msg ID: 63361)
Fed adds $13 billion, buys outright $660 million in Treasuries
http://app.ny.frb.org/dmm/mkt.cfmToday the Fed provided $13.66 billion in "high-power money" on a(n ongoing) temporary basis to the banking system, making some of it available at rates lower than the FOMC target of 2.5 percent.

$9 billion was added through seven-day repurchase agreements.
$4 billion was added through 28-day repos (Note: this long-term "rollover facility" has doubled in size during the past month.)
$660 million was permanently added through the outright purchase of Treasury coupons dated from 2008 to 2021.

R.
BR549
(10/11/2001; 12:20:56 MDT - Msg ID: 63362)
OK CB's Fess up; whose turn was it to sell gold this time?
GOLD 100 OZ FUTR
Dec01 13:17 282.60 -4.10 283.50 283.80 281.30 286.70

Dollar up against the Euro, highest since 911. Treasuries down in anticipation of more borrowing.

Gold down -$4.10 and headed back towards its Fed pegged price of $275/oz. Should arrive in another week or so.

BR549

site steward
(10/11/2001; 12:21:49 MDT - Msg ID: 63363)
Officials everywhere working hard to maintain fragile system... (some more worried than others)
http://www.ecb.int/key/01/sp011011en.htmFrom today's press conference of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank announcing that euro-area interest rates would be held as is.

Pesident Duisenberg explained:

"...the Governing Council decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. The level of the key ECB interest rates at the current juncture is therefore seen as consistent with maintaining price stability over the medium term."

"...the assessment is currently surrounded by a particularly high degree of uncertainty. This concerns in particular the international environment. Last month's terrorist attacks had a negative impact on economic activity and confidence, which could delay the resumption of higher economic growth. Against this background, it was important that policy-makers in the United States, the euro area and in other countries around the world acted with measures to support confidence. A further positive feature is the recent fall in oil prices, which should be helpful in containing inflationary pressure and supporting the real disposable income of households, thereby sustaining consumption in many countries."

"...The mere existence of the euro has sheltered the countries of the euro area from adverse intra-European exchange rate tensions, which had typically plagued many countries when external shocks occurred in the past."

"...Regarding fiscal policies, there have been very encouraging signs of firm fiscal consolidation in a significant number of euro area Member States over past years, whereas, in a few other countries, progress towards balanced fiscal positions has been slower. ..... ...policy-makers must now intensify the acceleration of reforms rather than allow efforts to abate. Moving forward the reform agenda decisively will enable the euro area economy to respond flexibly in future and thereby underpin our confidence that external shocks can be more easily absorbed than in the past."
- - - - -
Important for dollar-holders to keep in mind is that this alternate monetary system, the euro, was built for independence from the failing design-structure of the modern dollar. Important for all paper money holders to keep in mind is that this euro system was built with an eye on future stability -- not to go head to head with gold, but rather to let gold rise as the free market dictates it should.

Obviously, the markets take time to shrug off their old days, and thus we see today that paper gold still dominates the pricing arena for gold. Take advantage of this transitionary period, folks. Buy gold. Centennial can help.

R.
Pandagold
(10/11/2001; 12:49:20 MDT - Msg ID: 63364)
Just a quickie to think about
This is just a quickie, but something for you to think about then I'm off to my dinner ( it's London time here) should get back to my computer to watch the close of New York.

Just before September iith the markets were in free fall - I mean F R E E fall. They dipped a little more, not much after the 11th, then started to rise.

Now, things are no better, economically or otherwise, than before terror struck, in fact they are a darn sight worse - major airlines folding etc., and a very costly war raging. You could feed the third world on what it is costing Uncle Sam in one day -- buys a lot of bowls of rice.

(Its your money they're spending when you see those bangs, just think how much it is costing)

The markets are now at, and slightly above where they were
before the 11th - in just one month. Repeat, in just one month.

And you think nobody knew? Now just why was that market falling? And what has changed for the better to make all that money pour into the market? Absolutely NOTHING, it's worse.

It will be interesting to see how far it goes up beyond where it was a month ago.

Just heard on the business news that suddenly companies are finding that they are going to meet their targets (Yahoo for one) when last month they said they wouldn't. How convenient.

So, if more planes plummet into structures full of humanity, there will be people who will make more millions on the stock market. Too bad those in the Twin Towers were not the beneficiaries. They gave their lives, so that a few others may live - very well indeed.

Today they held services in London and New York, massed pipers playing, people crying. But just a short distance away they were celebrating the Dow and the Nasdaq rocketing skywards.

What a wonderful world I'm of for my dinner
Netking
(10/11/2001; 13:53:03 MDT - Msg ID: 63365)
Ski - Silver
Ski(63337) Good comment from you, appreciated your comment.

There are three components to the silver short position - COMEX, OTC, and leasing/forward selling. OTC (including the LBMA) statistics are unavailable or unreliable, so that leaves only the other two for analysis. But there is an OTC position that adds on to the other two. The COMEX silver short futures and call options) position has been well over 130,000 contracts recently (futures plus call options) or over 650 million ounces of silver in recent days!

Since world mining production is under 600 million, and
because no one can verify more than 150 million ounces of silver bullion, the COMEX silver short position is greater than either world production, or world verified inventories, and lets not even mention the annual deficit carried for the last decade or so ok!

Paper silver can be produced, & produced, & produced, but when physical starts to run out & there is NO LONGER ANY BACKING for the paper silver . . . then look out my friend!

Physical silver IS running out fast, I'm currently trying to find some more today in my city(of 1 million +), my fist purchase since "9-11" & guess what? . . . I haven't found ANY yet that I can purchase today, it (the supply situation) is worse that what I had thought, although I'd had feedback it was heading that way fast from other locals.

Although I have some paper & expect to do OK out of it, I aim to forget the paper price & keep accumulating physical bullion. . . that's where my security is(outside of God).
- Netking
Aristotle
(10/11/2001; 14:22:21 MDT - Msg ID: 63366)
What a glorious couple of days in the markets!
Thanks for the warm welcome, guys. It's good to see your names and to share space with you here again.

Ya know... if you had put your mind to it, if your sole goal were to ultimately raise up the real world value of Gold in a sort of paradigm shift, you'd have had a hard time planning a better week than this as the cornerstone in that project.

For the sake of conversation, would anyone else like to suggest the reasons why I see it this way?

Here's a hint: think about what it truly is that gives Gold its variable value through time. Then, dwell on the conditions necessary for its maximum sustainable valuation.

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle
Canuck Gold
(10/11/2001; 14:28:34 MDT - Msg ID: 63367)
FOAs latest Gold Trail hike
FOA, your latest hike has certainly made clear the hypothesis that the price of gold today is a product of politics rather than supply, but a couple of paragraphs near the end caught my attention. I've copied the corrected version:

"I also fully well expect that most world gold mine production will be forced to ship gold into the leftovers of the dollar cash settlement paper market until the Bullion Banking system is made whole on their physical side. In adjunct to this, the ECB and BIS will play a major roll in cashing out failed paper gold positions for certain clients. Cashing out in Euros, that is.

A US workout to cover its failed paper gold position will most likely be using gold industry profits. It could be done via "windfall tax legislation", plain tax or part of any variety of emergency financial arrangement. All built in order to allow our current gold reserves to be
repriced at higher world levels and help our dollar stay somewhere in the next currency system. Considering the size of the failure, real gold will outperform any and all investments once this all gets started. However, we should not be naive and not expect some serious taxes of our own on bullion sales. Still, only just enough so as to keep currency tender protected from being supplanted with illegal gold use. Illegal in that too high a rate and everyone would use gold in barter and stopped paying their capital gains taxes all together."

Those are quite explosive assertions and perhaps you could expand/explain them further. Are you suggesting that the annual world production of 2500 or so tons of gold will be supplied to the bullion banks to cover the remnants of their short positions, which some estimate to be as high as 15,000 tons? Settled in what currency, at what price? Do you mean just US production?

Why would there be any need to create any additional taxes on gold industry profits? Wouldn't the government get a big enough slice of the action from existing tax provisions? What you're suggesting regarding �windfall taxes� is a very small step away from nationalization. Are you suggesting that would happen to all gold companies or just those in the US? When oil jumped from $10 per barrel to $30, there were no �windfall taxes� imposed on the oil industry, which is significantly larger than the gold industry. Why would any government take such drastic steps to penalize gold industry investors when they haven't done so in other areas?

Any clarifications you can provide would be much appreciated.

CG
Aristotle
(10/11/2001; 14:34:54 MDT - Msg ID: 63368)
I'm serious! Drop everything and go think about it! NOW!!
Instead of fuming over the rising Dow and Nasdaq, go make yourself a sandwich, grab a bag of chips and a beer, then kick back in your hammock for a while as you contemplate this. Figuring it out for yourself will be more meaningful to you than anything anyone else can tell you.

I believe it was Bertrand Russell who said, "There is no arguing with a mood, it can be changed by some fortunate event, or by a change in our bodily condition, but it can never be changed by argument."

He's right. You'll have to see this one all the way through for yourself. (But I'll be happy to talk anyone through it.)

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle
Buena Fe
(10/11/2001; 15:04:22 MDT - Msg ID: 63369)
cold war
I notice that the Russians have brought home the Kusk. Is there any speculation left that it was purposely hit by enemy fire?
Cavan Man
(10/11/2001; 15:14:59 MDT - Msg ID: 63370)
Ari......
Bring it on.
AllanC
(10/11/2001; 15:16:42 MDT - Msg ID: 63371)
Aristotle
I'll have to think about that one.

But, most people would probably say it has to do with perception, a change in our perception of our physical as well as financial security. And as MK says, the loss of our innocence.

Is that what your leading up to?....or did I fail the test miserably.
Cavan Man
(10/11/2001; 15:19:49 MDT - Msg ID: 63372)
drudgereport.com
http://www.fbi.gov/pressrel/pressrel01/skyfall.htm
For Immediate Release
October 11, 2001
Washington D.C.
FBI National Press Office

Certain information, while not specific as to target, gives the government reason to believe
that there may be additional terrorist attacks within the United States and against U.S.
interests overseas over the next several days. The FBI has again alerted all local law
enforcement to be on the highest alert and we call on all people to immediately notify the FBI
and local law enforcement of any unusual or suspicious activity.

####
Pandagold
(10/11/2001; 15:29:47 MDT - Msg ID: 63373)
Aristotle and Bertrand
Not quite sure whose fuming over the rise in the Dow and Nasdaq - at least within the forum, unless I've missed a post. Me, I just trade the mining stocks up and down - it's like taking candy from a child. ( Mind you I know a kid that would pack a punch if you tried to take her candy)

About the Bertrand Russsel philosophy you quote. When I am 'in a mood' - negative one that is, I often resolve it by 'arguing' with myself. In fact it's the only way I deal with it. Being a psychologist, it helps

After putting to me all the 'fors' and 'againsts', I eventually come to a conclusion that I would feel much better if I saw the situation in a more positive light.

I remind myself of a quote from Marcus Auralius: It is not what happens to us that matters, but how we view it ( In Latin of course).

So, argument does the trick for me.

I also remember in the movie Lawrence of Arabia. He is in the army barracks and talking with some of the other officers, and soldiers. He took out his matches and lit a candle. He then held his hand over the flame for a few seconds.

Afterwards the others asked him 'didn't it hurt?'

' Of course it hurt', he replied 'It's minding that it hurt that matters'.

So next time the POG dives, and you are long, just repeat 50 times 'it doesn't hurt, it doesn't..................'

If that doesn't work, kick the cat
nickel62
(10/11/2001; 15:31:47 MDT - Msg ID: 63374)
Aristotle,
I think the actions of the last month have begun to show the need to free the world's commodity producers from the financial/ derivative chains that have held their spot prices down below their cost of replacing their capital investment.

The US's strong dollar policy has been a vaccum cleaner that has allowed all the value added from the worlds workers to be sucked into the financial markets of London and Wall Street. Their market maquinations and their effects on a supossedly "free market price mechanism" has been made visible. And all too vulnerable.

Whatever the cost in lives that both sides have paid and will continue to pay the financial resources lost in the last month by the west is astonomical compared to the terrorists. The longterm need to find a compromise is a fertile point for gold in that it will demand a reslicing of the world's deck and a movement of some of the value added back to the hands of those who produce it. The inevitability of this will become more and more apparent as the weeks and months drag on. The ability to hold back the waves is clearly now being brought into question. Gold and real assets will have to be allowed to find their own level.
R Powell
(10/11/2001; 15:48:15 MDT - Msg ID: 63375)
Low prices cure low prices
Another bad day for POG and POS although silver didn't lose big time today suggesting at least a rest on the way down. None of the fundamentals of an ever increasing deficit have changed to my knowledge so we'll have to say as the experts often do when they haven't a clue, "It's a technical move."
Another favorite saying of commodity analysts is, "There's no better cure for low prices than low prices."
If prices wander down to previous lows we'll all have another chance to buy. Physical or paper or both, the choice is, of course, up to you. Being greedy, I'll probably try for some of each.
If low prices are the best cure for low prices, gold and silver ought to recover soon and return even stronger than they were before they were taken sick (or intentionally infected).
Any thoughts?
Rich
site steward
(10/11/2001; 15:49:30 MDT - Msg ID: 63376)
More important quotes to ponder from today's ECB press conference
http://www.ecb.int/key/01/sp011011en.htmFrom Willem F. Duisenberg, President of the ECB, (11 October 2001)

"I would like to say that the most crucial challenge that faces the authorities, all authorities, over the near future is to restore confidence amongst consumers and investors in their future."

AND:

"If we do have room for manoeuvre [on the monetary side of policy], there is very little. And events are still rapidly developing and we have to be very careful in using any room which there might be. So you might say that, in view of the very high uncertainties confronting us, also in the immediate future, we prefer to "keep our powder dry"."

AND here's a specific exchange with a questioner. Consider this in contrast to many rate cuts we continue to see necessarily delivered by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Questioner:
Mr. Duisenberg, I would like to come back to the question of confidence. Confidence in Europe has dropped considerably since 11 September. How can you explain the fact that � as you said � by not reducing interest rates you are going to increase confidence?

Duisenberg:
"I did not say that, but I said that it is doubtful whether a range of rate changes coming quickly one after the other would by themselves enhance confidence rather than maybe even undermine confidence. The public has to have confidence in its central bank, in its pursuit of price stability over the medium term, in applying its declared strategy and delivering what it has promised to the public to deliver, namely price stability. And I do think following that strategy � and if the public recognises that we do what we say and we deliver what we promise � is the best contribution that we can make to restoring confidence among consumers and investors."

R.
Pandagold
(10/11/2001; 15:51:00 MDT - Msg ID: 63377)
Knallgold and currencies
Knallgold; Not quite sure I understood about the camps - dollar, euro. They will both be the two main reserve currencies for some time. The Euro won't really come into its own until next year. Britain will in the next two or three years join the Euro

Eventually there will be only one currency and it will be digital - but that is way, way down the road, though it could come in alongside the others if only because of the internet.

What could come first is a Pan-Asian currency; a European currency and the Americas. Three main blocks, eventually with a loose intergration prior to full intergration. Don't worry too much. We'll all not be here, or much too old to worry about it when it happens.

Should I add IMHO?
BR549
(10/11/2001; 16:06:19 MDT - Msg ID: 63378)
The World's Mayor tells the Saudi's to stuff it!
"The comments by Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal drew a rebuke from Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, who said that such remarks "were part of the problem" behind the Sept. 11 terrorist attack.

Alwaleed, a major investor in American companies and one of hundreds of princes in the Saudi royal family, toured ground zero and called it "a tremendous crime."

"It's just unbelievable," he said. "We are here to tell America and to tell New York that Saudi Arabia is with the United States wholeheartedly."

But in a statement distributed by an aide, the prince said that "at times like this one we must address some of the issues that led to such a criminal attack."

"I believe the government of the United States of America should re-examine its policies in the Middle East and adopt a more balanced stance toward the Palestinian cause," Alwaleed said. "Our Palestinian brethren continue to be slaughtered at the hands of Israelis while the world turns the other cheek."

Giuliani, in a news conference later at City Hall, expressed his dismay with Alwaleed's remarks.

"There is no moral equivalent for this attack," the mayor said. "The people who did it lost any right to ask for justification when they slaughtered 5,000, 6,000 innocent people. ... Not only are those statements wrong, they're part of the problem." "


BR-It is not too late to add the Saudi's to the World alliance hit list. These are the same pompous arrogant "never done a day's work in their lives" that refused to stand up a greet Don Rumsfeld on his recent visit.

To blame the US for the WTC shows their true colors. We don't need your "stinkin'" petro-dollar money.

BR549
Pandagold
(10/11/2001; 16:45:07 MDT - Msg ID: 63379)
Cavan Man Why today IS different
I supposed I had better hold good my promise to address your question, though I did hint at, why the difference, in an earlier post.

Yes, there is a new paradigm, a totally different set of circumstances that blows holes in all that academic economic theory of the past.

The only people who, in the past ( over centuries), have had a realistic economic understanding ( as opposed to the Academic crap), backed by a gold wealth that built and destroyed governments, and empires, financed ventures (Columbus's voyage, the defeat of Napolean, etc) now control the giant casino. They are today truly the world's bankers.

They have knocked out every vestige of opposition (like the Japanese), and they are backed by the world's largest military force and intelligence network, to ensure they cannot be opposed.

In other words, they can produce enough fiat currency to effect whatever policies they wish, with impunity. They have been buying up the world with bits of green paper that costs nothing to produce.

Nations have been plunged into economic misery (Asia, the old iron curtain countries) where they had to sell at give away prices anything of real value. Billions have even been produced outside the US with plates that would defy any inspection, and the money used for this purpose.

As their vast organisation, network, call it what you may, has been global for years (centuries), and has taken every economic disaster, war, or whatever, as an opportunity to expand that network, they own just about everything worth owning.

Here is a simple analogy, not perfect but it gives you an idea to work on.

You are playing Monopoly with friends. You start off following the rules and divide the allotted amount of money equally to all. You elect yourself banker. This is where there is a little diversion from real life. Because, it is a game and everyone sitting close the others can see into the 'bank' and its dealings. Imagine in real life where they cannot see into your vaults, and observe your manipulations.

As the game proceeds, by fair means or foul (mostly foul), you manage to acquire most of the prime property, plus a little sleight of hand manipulation of the 'chance' cards allows you to escape any penalties, and acquire all the 'rewards'.

Your other players are fairly naive, and basically honest, and even though one or two may suspect something amiss, they are either too gentlemanly to bring it up, or, if they did suggest something you would make them feel embarrassed, apologise and back down.

Because you now own just about everything that ensures you can't lose, soon one or the other is going to throw in his chips. But you don't want the game to fold, you like the feel of success, it feeds your ego. So, in your magnanimity you give the other players more money. As this goes on, when the supply that comes with the game becomes depleted, your newly acquired laser copier and printer just prints some more.

You cannot be usurped from your seat of power, and ALL the money has to come back to you eventually. That last bit is very important.

Tell me, when does the game need to end?

Have you not yet got it? This is why the US can print money with impunity. I could tell you much more, but this is not the place. Of course there will be inflation down the road, that is one way the US will get rid of a lot of its debt.

Remember, the people who are running the show in the US can live and operate anywhere in the world - and have done. The tick stays with the dog just so long as it has blood. When the blood dries up, find a new dog.

Nations rise and fall. Areas within a nation rise and fall. Once Detroit was a thriving place (it was, wasn't it?) I know you would hardly think so today. Types of businesses rise and fall. Life is one of change.

The one thing which separates us from the rest of the animal kingdom is our ability to communicate, and store and pass on knowledge. The pace of life has moved in accordance with our development of information technology from it's very primitive forms ie, the pen.

Do you know, Shakespeare did not have any means of writing - no carry pen or pencil, he could carry with him to jot down notes (neither did anyone else in his time).

Over the past couple of decades 'IT' has advanced so rapidly, we can't keep pace. Hence, Bill Gates's "Business at the speed of thought".

One could go on, but you get the drift.

Sorry, if there are errors, I have no time for editing.

Those who have the (most)gold make the rules.
Cavan Man
(10/11/2001; 16:45:49 MDT - Msg ID: 63380)
PS: Called the FBI
According to the Bureau, there is no "warning" out and the Drudge headline is BS
Netking
(10/11/2001; 16:52:43 MDT - Msg ID: 63381)
Cavanman - FBI
http://www.fbi.gov/pressrel/pressrel01/skyfall.htmSomebody should get the boys to update their web site!
Pandagold
(10/11/2001; 16:56:42 MDT - Msg ID: 63382)
Cavan Man FBI warning
Don't know what Drudge is but:-

It is being announced on the BBC and all British networks that the FBI are warning of further terror strikes in the next few days - just don't know where but it has to be taken seriously.

Extra police are being drafted onto London streets and extra guards at potential targets
AllanC
(10/11/2001; 17:03:56 MDT - Msg ID: 63383)
BR549 and ....the world's mayor??
Mayor Giuliani fell into the same trap as you always do.

Ill submit the following: Let's compare Sept 11 vs Hiroshima.....

Were they justified? We'll agree that in both cases the attackers knew many innocents would die.

9/11 7000 innocents...No justification

Hiroshima... (200,000 innocents?)....No justification

Their probable cause?

9/11... US Mideast policy. And maybe Hiroshima?...what's good for the gander...

Hiroshima... The US wanted to end the war quickly, presumably to save more American and Japanese lives.

As Another would say, time will tell all things, and history will write about these events in a much different light than we presently portray them.

Regards

AllanC
Mr Gresham
(10/11/2001; 17:36:27 MDT - Msg ID: 63384)
Bullies
When I was a kid, I hated bullying, and I now remember with shame the times in school I did not go over and stick up for the littler kid that was getting it.

But I've always been fascinated by war, and studied dozens of military histories and works on strategy. Starting in elementary school. In fact, I wanted to be a war correspondent and write my own books about wars.

I tried to get my uncle to tell me about his experience as a lieutenant at Hamburger Hill in Korea (or was it Pork Chop? I know Vietnam had one of the names, but maybe Korea had one of each?), but he kept putting me off. One day, my father finally told me to leave him alone, and he hinted at how horrible the experience might be for my uncle to dredge up.

A wild-assed suggestion here; not original: In our world of titles and certifications that we wear after our names, like Dr. and CPA, etc etc, perhaps all men who write or opinionate about war should be required to include the initials after their names: C.V. (combat veteran), or N.C.V. (non-).

I know the opinions will still cover the entire spectrum for either group, and the knowledge and thoughts of an individual with combat experience might not automatically apply to new situations. (And we men always run the risk of having those yardsticks out toute suite while comparing such qualifications, eh?)

But I know I hold an extra respect while listening to someone who has a real-life story of his own behind his opinions on war. I still have to make up my own mind, though.

And I still hate bullying.

Gresham, N.C.V.
Cavan Man
(10/11/2001; 17:39:16 MDT - Msg ID: 63385)
Netking
Link out of order. Mom travelling tomorrow. Would apprecaite the good link. thanks
R Powell
(10/11/2001; 18:05:34 MDT - Msg ID: 63386)
Cavan
The link worked for me
October 11, 2001 Washington D.C.
FBI National Press Office

This is dated today from the FBI

Certain information, while not specific as to target, gives the government reason to believe that there may be additional terrorist attacks within the United States and against U.S. interests overseas over the next several days. The FBI has again alerted all local law enforcement to be on the highest alert and we call on all people to immediately notify the FBI and local law enforcement of any unusual or suspicious activity.


####

Netking
(10/11/2001; 18:16:44 MDT - Msg ID: 63387)
Cavan Man - Link
Link still working down here in the "South".(PS; Your Mum might want Psalm 91 with her)
- regards Netking
Matt
(10/11/2001; 18:22:12 MDT - Msg ID: 63388)
AlanC---
Your comments comparing Hiroshima and Trade Center bombings
indicate you are very young and probably recently indoctrinated in U.S. government schools.

One of the few GREAT things Truman did as President was to use the bomb option on Japan---my dad probably lived another forty years, along with tens of thousands of other fathers, because of that decision. You are such a dumb sh--! to make those remarks.

Netking
(10/11/2001; 18:24:25 MDT - Msg ID: 63389)
Suppose the Government takes my Gold?
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/stott101201.htmlThe latest from Mr Don Scott - Snippet:
". . . . Governments hate gold and silver. They hate them because it makes their piece of paper with ink on it look like what it is�nothing but a piece of paper with ink on it. Gold and silver are tangible, beautiful, historic money. In all my scribblings on this site and in my book, I absolutely refuse to call dollars and other pieces of paper with ink on them, "money." They are currencies, not money. The word "money" denotes value, and currencies have no value, other than legal tender laws. But just because governments hate gold and silver, and desperately manipulate them to save face, it doesn't mean they will attempt to confiscate them. If such ever were attempted, the outrage would be so stupendous as to be laughable. Such a "law" could never get out of committee, and no President would be so foolish as to issue an "executive order," ordering such. The Constitution does not authorize executive orders, and I cannot understand why they have not been struck down by the Supremes long ago.

Lots of things have become "illegal" of late, and the result of these things being made "illegal" are that such things command a premium price way out of line with their true vale. "The more of anything there is, the less they will be worth," remember? Conversely, "the less of anything there is, the more they will be worth." Try to buy Freon 22, or 6 gallon flush toilets. They can be had, but at huge prices, because they are "illegal." Make owning gold and silver "illegal," and it will be possible to buy and sell on any street corner at huge prices. Is it possible? Anything is possible. One has only to use their imagination to visualize possible future atrocities that can be committed by terrorists, or harassment by government.

Don't worry, you'll keep your gold and silver as long as you wish, and be able to sell it at your convenience, either through me or to anyone who values a tangible, glorious piece of historic wealth. Protect yourself and your family, because no one else will."
Cavan Man
(10/11/2001; 18:26:07 MDT - Msg ID: 63390)
Thanks all.....
Any one of the Psalms are good for the occasion!
BR549
(10/11/2001; 18:47:33 MDT - Msg ID: 63391)
The fallacy of the "innocents"
@AllanC---

Innocents is now a key word for those who feel that doing nothing is superior to doing the right thing. How many victims of WWII would have been sacrificed without nuking Japan? How many more allied soldiers would not have returned home? How many families would have been devastated?

How many "innocents" were killed on 911? The Mayor of the World knew what he was doing when he rejected the "guilt money" of the Saudis. The Saudi's feign their allegiance to the free world in order to gain their protection from their dreaded enemies of Iraq and Iran. We provide them security in exchange for their oil, and what do they do? They come to the US, provide us with $10MM of our own money and then blame us for 911? How many "innocents" will die before terrorism is wiped out. I am afraid many from Anthrax, falling airplanes, blown up suicide cowards in shopping centers, and many "innocent" Afghani's who are victims of their own corrupt regime. If the World Alliance had only victory in mind, why do they use the costly JDAM's? Why not just "kill �em all". Anytime I hear a phrase using the words "Innocents", I know what is next. In the recent bombings of the Taliban, there were 4 U.N. reps killed by collateral damage as well as many members of the Taliban's immediate family. And there will be more.

And history will judge whether now that the world has a chance to eradicate terrorism, that we did not because of the fear of hurting the "innocents". The future murder of "innocent" citizens of the world at the hand of world terrorism of course is a different matter in some minds.

The true solution, IMHO, is to win the new economic war and eliminate the future opportunities that terrorism will have to finance the murder of true "innocents". Of course, the world has not changed since 911 and the stars still shine bright in man's golden mirror.

Good to see you back.

Regards,

BR549
Canuck
(10/11/2001; 19:24:58 MDT - Msg ID: 63392)
@ Pandagold
"I could tell you much more, but this is not the place."

I would be interested in hearing more.

hyperinflation@hotmail.com
Canuck
(10/11/2001; 19:31:58 MDT - Msg ID: 63393)
@BR549
I'm curious about something, I will ask and mean no harm.

Yesterday you welcomed Aristotle back but I believe you are new to the forum since Ari's departure. In that sense welcoming him back seems odd. Were you under a different alias prior to Ari's departure?

My timing may be completely off and thus, this question is irrelevent for which I apologize in advance.
USAGOLD
(10/11/2001; 19:33:42 MDT - Msg ID: 63394)
Friendly Reminder. . . .
Table rules:

4. Promotional posts in general. Examples include promotion of organizations; self-promotion (includes posting e-mail addresses); promotion of the company you work for or invest in; promotion of internet sites or businesses that compete directly with USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals
uponroof
(10/11/2001; 20:06:58 MDT - Msg ID: 63395)
Knallgold
Hi hugo! long time my friend. Hope your well.

No offense about the Swiss selling since 911. Greenspan snapped his fingers and the SNB opened it's vaults like a trollop. I love your country.....it's the bankers I can't stand. Read a report about Bin Laden's half brother being one of your residents. He was playing the markets from a Swiss location until 911. Then 'poof' gone.
**********
Don't know about the cabal's fingers being on the tower job. I know there are guys who burn down their own buildings for the insurance money, but this is way too extravagent to be an inside job. At least that's my position for now. If there is an inside group crazy enough to organize such a convoluted plan things in this world are gonna get much, much worse.
***********
My position in paper puts me in the 'chumps' catagory. But, as much as I see the logic in why it's called 'chumps', I'll remind all that the last time POG escaped in Sept of 99, Paper options far out performed not only physical but also gold shares.....it wasn't even close! So, my fire insurance will continue to be all paid up until the market shakes out. Longshots are hot spice in this ultra bland 'protection' recipe.

Thanks hugo, always nice to hear from you Sir. Please write your gummint a nasty letter for me when you get the chance.

CHEERS!
sector
(10/11/2001; 20:09:19 MDT - Msg ID: 63396)
@Matt Some People Are On the wrong side...
...of the new paradigm. Placed there by instructors of dangerously naive, multicultural dogma who imagine the world to have been a utopia sullied only by evil American capitalists. And yet these people can't emotionally grow beyond their own level of cultural misperception. Its OK though. Its not our problem.

The Earth is no longer flat, there are footprints on the Moon, Bush's approval IS nearing 95% and Al Gore DID give him credit.

We aren't responsible for myopia and wrong headedness. We just need to understand that not everybody accepts that the Earth is round. Not everybody accepts that men walked on the Moon. And not everybody believes a military is necessary. Its OK. Their utopian euphoria marks them as a vanishing, hypocritical oddity.

Its not Viet Nam any more...they think it is. In their world the Jaoanese were forced to defend themselves at Pearl Harbor. Their list of friends is shrinking fast.
Canuck
(10/11/2001; 20:12:13 MDT - Msg ID: 63397)
@ Aristotle
"Here's a hint: think about what it truly is that gives Gold its variable value through time. Then, dwell on the conditions necessary for its maximum sustainable valuation."

From a ultra-basic fundamental view let me take a stab at this. I need to establish my thought process of gold, bottom-up.

"..think about what it truly is that gives Gold its variable value through time."

Relative value in paper money. Paper money is to gold what bond prices are to yields, opposites.

"...dwell on the conditions necessary for its maximum sustainable valuation."

An ever deceasing value of ones local currency. The ever decreasing value of money is obtained by the ever increasing quantity.







Canuck
(10/11/2001; 20:37:00 MDT - Msg ID: 63398)
@ Ari
Crack number two.

An Arab trades barrels of oil and receives dollars. He walks away scratching his head feeling he got had.

A Japanese trader sells electronic equipment for dollars. He walks away scratching his head feeling he got had.

A German, a Swiss, a Chinese all holding dollars in one hand
while scratching their heads with the other.

A Canadian sells lumber (bad joke) and holds out his hand, gold please!!!

(I was told it was a Canadian)

So as settlement of trade becomes tentative(?) why not accept the currency of last resort. As all world currencies inflate which will anchor?

Canuck
(10/11/2001; 20:38:29 MDT - Msg ID: 63399)
(No Subject)
Arab sells oil and holds out hand, "Euros please"
uponroof
(10/11/2001; 20:39:27 MDT - Msg ID: 63400)
sector
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20011011/ts/attacks_high_alert_9.htmlHope all's well with you and your family. One of your last messages mentioned your daughter being in the same city as the anthrax.

This is really hitting close to home for you huh?

Hang in there my friend. In your spare time get a CCW if your state allows (before it's too late).

btw-It's official. Yahoo is reporting a warning from the FBI on attacks in the coming days and weeks. To think that some see this activity as even partially justified, or in some sympathetic light, is absolutely amazing. Consider the odds of that opinion remaining constant if one of these coming attacks reaches their doorstep, like the last reached yours.
auspec
(10/11/2001; 20:44:40 MDT - Msg ID: 63401)
which is more contagious?
anthrax
or
war fever?
milos
(10/11/2001; 20:47:03 MDT - Msg ID: 63402)
@Aristotle
Yiasu
Nice to hear from you, you'll have to tell us about the sabatical.
Black Blade
(10/11/2001; 21:01:23 MDT - Msg ID: 63403)
Forbes Body Count
http://www.forbes.com/2001/01/30/layoffs.html
Just a few nonessential "Bones" cast aside today. Third quarter losses continue to be exposed this week. The magic of corporate share buybacks and Pro Forma accounting is helping the market indices lately, even though the fundamentals are quite "Grim."
AllanC
(10/11/2001; 21:15:56 MDT - Msg ID: 63404)
On war, terrorism, and innocence
BR549:

What do "innocents" have to do with it? Everything!

When we are discussing acts of war or terrorism, the killing of innocents is never justified. And to say it is morally warranted, as in Hiroshima, to save innocent lives later, only gives further credibility to terrorist acts. War has traditionally been fought using accepted rules of engagement, and Hiroshima by all accounts, broke all the rules. In my opinion, it was not unlike a terrorist act committed during war.

The Saudi's alterior motive is not the issue. We are again discussing meanings here, and Mayor Giuliani was incorrect in assuming the Saudi was making a moral judgement on the WTC attack.

Terrorists acts are not random , there is always an underlying motive. If they are not understood, then they will only continue I'm afraid. I like you, hope the war on terrorism is won, but how that war is fought is just as important as the outcome.

Regards,

AllanC



uponroof
(10/11/2001; 21:19:21 MDT - Msg ID: 63405)
Anthrax cannot be spead from person to person...War Fever is not contagious either. It is a symtom expressed by those under attack, who still have a pulse.
@auspec

Anthrax infection can occur three ways:
Through skin, inhalation, and through food. Anthrax spores can live in soil for many years. Humans can become infected by inhaling anthrax from contaminated animal products, or by consuming meat from infected animals.

War Fever is spread through random acts of terror, with total disregard for life. This fever is a healthy, natural virus which will insure preservation of those infected through retaliatory means. If you are not able to contract this virus through 'free (leftwing) radical blocks' there is a high probability of immune system breakdown.
Black Blade
(10/11/2001; 21:26:33 MDT - Msg ID: 63406)
Jobs Market Weakens More After Attacks
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/011011/business_economy_dc_1.html
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New claims for U.S. jobless benefits fell last week, but a close look at government figures revealed a labor market shaken after the Sept. 11 attacks and likely to deteriorate even more. ``This is really telling you that further deterioration is coming over the next several months on the employment front,'' said Anthony Chan, chief economist at Banc One Investment Advisors in Columbus, Ohio. The weak labor data add to an already dismal economic picture, with consumer and business confidence waning after the attacks. Hiring among businesses, already hit hard before Sept. 11, has stalled.

Black Blade: Not a pretty picture here. Looks "GRIM"

After watching the recent market rally when there is absolutely no positive news, I think I should put on my Rose-Colored glasses and start singing "Everything Is Beautiful"
BR549
(10/11/2001; 21:33:36 MDT - Msg ID: 63407)
Welcoming Aristotle back.
Canuck (msg#: 63393)---

I was trying to be a nice citizen of the site in joining in with others in welcoming a former USAG poster back. I was also one of the first who congratulated "Beer Man" on winning the Futures POG contest and I did not know him either.

Believe me it has nothing to do with whether I agree or disagree with Aristotle's overall views. His first post after returning had to do with owning physical Gold over paper, (Chimps, Chumps, Champs). I think any paper is a waste and so I happened to agree with him. In the same post, I was also welcoming AllanC back, whom I disagree with most of the time, but feel his ideas do not need to be censored by those who disagree with him. I was concerned in reference to AllanC that he had been "run off" by the posters who feel they are wiser than most of us and provide "thought police" advice on what the "subject" should be.

My only other alias is "Phil" which I have never posted here as but I have lurked here for many moons before my initial post and have stomped backwards along the Trail in order to catch up.

Anybody that knows my reputation for posting from other sites also knows that I shoot from the hip with my real feelings and ideas. I do not endorse the BSBS (the first BS is Blue Sky and you know the second) that some posters provide here and across the Internet. Much fluff and no substance, i.e., "nothing to chew on". I do not use a Thesaurus now, although I used one in graduate school for most every term paper. The "Hall of Fame", IMHO, here and at other sites is the most ridiculous thing that happens in that it awards some posters ideas (mostly BSBS writing styles that the moninators agree with) over others real world ideas.

I hope that I have answered your question and believe me if you leave for a year or so, and I am still here, I will join in welcoming you back.

No offense on your post to me intended or taken. And I appreciate your interest and curiosity.

BTW-If I feel that Aristotle is wrong in his future postings, I will let him and you know. And I expect and appreciate the same from the both of you in reference to my postings.

Regards,

BR549
Black Blade
(10/11/2001; 21:36:49 MDT - Msg ID: 63408)
600 Casino Layoffs Blamed On Attacks
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/wdiv/20011011/lo/924421_1.html
Snippit:

The loss of business at the Casino Windsor since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks has caused the layoff of about 600 employees, according casino officials.

Black Blade: More nonessential "Bones" added to the "Bone Pile." Lots of gambling "Bones" have already been tossed upon the growing "Bone Pile" as Las Vegas sees fewer gamblers. They are willing to gamble with cash but not with their lives as they shun air travel.
Aristotle
(10/11/2001; 21:37:28 MDT - Msg ID: 63409)
Canuck, wouldn't it be nice if only it were that simple?
Thanks for playing along in this discussion of the "freak show." (Wasn't that what Cavan Man today called the U.S. markets?)

Now down to business. You suggested that an ever increasing quantity of local currency (along with ever its ever decreasing value) might be the condition I was looking for to deliver maximum sustainable Gold valuation.

Errrrr... uhhhh.... weeeeeell, maybe. That's only a small part of the scene. However, this might be more properly identified as merely the recipe for higher prices in general, having nothing to do with valuation.

During this time of swelling local currency supply, imagine that Gold was discovered to cause cancer and brain damage (like contact with paper gold apparently does --haha!). What do you think would happen to its real world value -- even despite the currency scenario that you've outlined.

No, my friend, there's more involved in Gold's valuation than merely an expression of its current price in any given currency. Put this way it might be clearer; it shouldn't be too hard for you to imagine a fantastic Gold valuation universally seen by eyes throughout the world, yet depending on the local currency regime the price could be high in some places but sky high in others.

The thing I'd like to draw out of people is a recognition and expression of the conditions required for the eyes of all of mankind to see Gold in the highest valuation -- irrespective of particular price levels. Price is (generally speaking) most often just an dependent variable given the independent real world value of the item in question, and the independent situation regarding the local currency unit that denominates the price.

So as we see, there's more to it than the currency equation. Additional thoughts?

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle
AllanC
(10/11/2001; 21:42:52 MDT - Msg ID: 63410)
Matt
There's no need to name call.

I'm very happy the lives of your father and others were saved. But because your life, and those of other Americans were not adversly affected does not justify this horrendous and barbaric act.

Read my previous postings on the meaning of the words "justification" and "causation". Do you know what those words mean?
Netking
(10/11/2001; 21:45:44 MDT - Msg ID: 63411)
Auspec
Howdy Sir McAgSpec(tor), any news on the silver front. . . . has the shortage kicked in at your area of the woods? I mentioned earlier my city is now "cleaned out"(for the moment)of silver bars, mixed emotions on this one. . . good to the squeeze kicking in at different parts of the world but not home, right!
Aristotle
(10/11/2001; 21:45:47 MDT - Msg ID: 63412)
BR549 -- Hello! Give my regards to Cornfield County!
If you promise to be patient with me, given enough time I will try to paint you a picture of blue sky using real corn, and not the processed stuff.

Thanks for the welcome home. I've tossed my ragged sandals away and will be tenderfootin' around for a while.

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle
Simply Me
(10/11/2001; 21:49:29 MDT - Msg ID: 63413)
@MK and our site steward, Randy ...Thank You!
Yippeee! Waaahoooo! YeeeeHaaawww!!! I mean, er...um...Thank You Very Very Very Much, MK and Randy. I am honored that you thought my post worthy of one of the much-sought-after pre-'33 British Gold Sovereigns. If my post contained an expression of truth about the current world situation (especially as related to gold), I owe it all to the knowledge I have gained here at your forum.

I just saw the post of contest winners near the bottom of this page and couldn't believe it! I am treating myself to a Lynchburg Lemonade (lemonade with a drop of Mr. Jack Daniel's best brew...a favorite drink here in Nashville) and doing "the dance of joy"!

Congratulations to Solomon Weaver and Usul for their co-wins! I am honored to be in your company, sirs.

And to all who entered the contest....you should all be proud of your efforts. You presented formidable competition.

Thank You!
Simply Me (the golden granny)
zagold
(10/11/2001; 21:58:07 MDT - Msg ID: 63414)
mid east stress reliever
http://webpages.homestead.com/mccdaddy/files/machinegun/gattler.html#1
Black Blade
(10/11/2001; 22:10:27 MDT - Msg ID: 63415)
Natural Gas Prices Rise!

Natural gas prices have been rising again lately. This is partly due to cooler weather and declining injection rates. It is also due to a realization by many in the natural gas industry that the data collection services and statistical compilation of storage and injection data of the American Gas Association (AGA) is badly flawed and has grossly overstated NG storage and injection data. Some recent absurd data spikes have shaken industry confidence in the AGA data.

The membership of the AGA has less than 20 percent participation of the NG industry. The data that is given to the AGA is only what certain members are willing to divulge and even then much is withheld as proprietary data. The other 80% of the "assumed" data is normalized based on the data acquired from participating AGA members. That is one "big assumption." The problem is that even with a doubling of drill rigs there has only been a 2% gain in overall NG production. The data supplied by the AGA would have us believe that there is now well over 100% NG capacity in storage (which is impossible). Recently there have been tremendous spikes up and down in the dubious AGA data. It appears as if there is another natural gas shortage in the works and many industry players have come to the same conclusion.

Recently there has been a big drop in NG drilling activity that will result in tighter supply. Much of this has already occurred in the Gulf Coast where many new fields require NG prices above $3.50 Mbtu. New NG-fired power plants are about to come online and the winter heating season has begun in many parts of the country. There are nearly 300 power plants (virtually all are NG-fired) either being built or in the planning stage that will come online between now and 2006. Add to this new Fuel Cell technology that will consume even more NG as well as idled ammonia and fertilizer manufacturing plants that are now coming back into production and are consuming yet more NG. This very short term NG surplus looks like it will soon turn into a long-term shortage. Several natural gas company CEO's have recently stated that there will be a long-term shortage stretching out to 2007. It appears that the US economy will soon revisit the "Energy Crisis" once again.

- Black Blade
Aristotle
(10/11/2001; 22:10:51 MDT - Msg ID: 63416)
dragonfly from yesterday -- Did I find it??
Sadly, the book on comedy now seems to be out of print.

On a better note and most significantly, over the course of the year I now have some old Italian Gold coins freshly added in support of my personal Gold standard. Taking a peek into the inventory I see an impressive and harmonious world where Italian, Indian, Australian, Chinese, Hungarian, Prussian, Russian, Swedish, Swiss, British, French, German, Austrian, Belgian, Latvian, Danish, Finnish, South African, Argentine, Uruguayan, Mexican, American, and Canadian Gold all mingle with nary a squabble to be heard. (Most, I happily report, procured for me via the services of our fine host.)

Allows me to sleep quite well at night, thank you!

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle
Simply Me
(10/11/2001; 22:19:47 MDT - Msg ID: 63417)
Welcome back, Sir Aristotle!
It's good to see you back here at the forum! You've been missed.

simply
sourdough
(10/11/2001; 22:26:38 MDT - Msg ID: 63418)
Aristotle (10/11/01; 14:22:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 63366)
negative interest rates?
BR549
(10/11/2001; 22:39:48 MDT - Msg ID: 63419)
AllanC (msg#: 63404)---"Terrorists acts are not random , there is always an underlying motive. If they are not understood, then they will only continue I'm afraid."

A simple question for you�

Let's go back in time. Timothy McVeigh was a "white American guy", not very religious (non-Islamic), who committed an atrocious "not random" act of terrorism.

If you agree, do you think that the appropriate action was to understand his underlying motive(s) or destroy him before he could kill again?

Just curious.

BR549
Aristotle
(10/11/2001; 22:41:24 MDT - Msg ID: 63420)
R. Powell from yesterday
Thanks for the welcome. I couldn't help but be struck by the degree of the defensive stance you took in the wake of my old "Chimps, Champs, Chumps" overview. You wanted to know whether I simply considered all traders to be stupid. Well, who am I to judge a man for the methods he chooses in which to dispose of his chump change? But deep down, as time goes on, I can't help but start to believe that any thinking man that is STILL putting time (and money) into the paper gold trading game after all that has been said and done is not necessarily stupid, but self-destructive. Or maybe an addict who can't walk away with past losses still on the gambling table.

Maybe I can offer an additional post that will help explain the clear and simple reasoning behind my position. But first things first. You said that physical Gold was for safety and satisfaction, whereas paper positions were for leveraged profits.

Now, before you potentially lead any young and impressionable new investors further astray with your guidance, would you please explain the following, because it's very important. In the paper gold market (let's limit this to Comex futures and options), how do you choose which instrument to put your money on?

In other words, in very brief terms (because I know that your are a busy an honest man with better things to do with your time and energy than humor me in a lost cause) what are the various factors you consider when you decide what kind of paper gold to buy?

I'm not trying to rough you up. I'd really like to hear first-hand the insights of a trader. Afterwards, you may be surprised at how your "investment" logic might actually run completely counter to the actions of some really strong hands, who have really big heads, too! (Yes, they can be quite grotesque as dinner guests.) I hope we can address this further tomorrow.

Physical gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle
AllanC
(10/11/2001; 22:47:14 MDT - Msg ID: 63421)
Sector
"vanishing, hypocritical oddity"

We on this gold forum, for the most part, stand against US financial hegemony as it relates to gold and economic freedom.

Yet at the same time, some of us applaud US military hegemony, which in essence is part and parcel of it's world economic function.

After all it's the patriotic thing to do, and we are after "a shining light of freedom" in the world.

Hypocrisy?

And Pearl Harbor was a military target. The US had warnings the Japanese would attack. Hiroshima... justification for Pearl Harbor...just who are you trying to fool?
Simply Me
(10/11/2001; 22:49:46 MDT - Msg ID: 63422)
@Black Blade
Thank you for answering my question. I suppose it was just wishful thinking that made me grasp at the few references I'd seen to the large amount of oil we import from Canada as a remedy for possible loss of ME supplies.

I still hope that the collective scientific intelligence of this nation can come up with an alternative source of cheap energy. Maybe this war on terrorism will be a catylist for such advancements. I really hate that the ME has us by the short hairs.

With an alternative energy source, the Saudi's would not make such disgusting remarks as Prince Alwaleed made in New York today. "Reasons" for the WTC attack, indeed! As if there could be a justification for hijacking three civilian airliners and killing 6,000 civilians! He talks out of both sides of his mouth. That statement gave the lie to his protestations of friendship.

Sorry for the rant. I just can't help getting my knickers in a knot over the thought of US dependence on people who hate us.

Got Gold. Got firewood and a bicycle, too.
simply


Aristotle
(10/11/2001; 22:53:24 MDT - Msg ID: 63423)
sourdough -- interest rates are too "financial"
But here's another hint: ...well, actually this is more like a tool to help stimulate the thought process:

Now that it's too dark and cold outside to continue with the hammock exercise, put yourself in this new thinking environment.

Take yourself back in time to a world lit only by fire. What would it be that would elevate Gold's value status among various conceivable possessions?

Now here's the hint: These basic things that would foster real world value (which is what I am tasking the Round Table with a charge for discovery) really haven't changed all that much.

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle
tg
(10/11/2001; 23:14:49 MDT - Msg ID: 63424)
BR549 (10/11/01; 22:39:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 63419

In reference to Mcveigh; The underlying problems that caused him to commit such an atrocious act have not been resolved. i am sure there is someone else out there with the same anomosities that he had who is willing to take his place and commit the same. His death has not solved nor resloved anything.

Just on a side note, why is it that state sponsered terrorism which kills hundreds of thousands is not considered as horrendous as terrorism by individuals.

Why have the English never resolved their disputes with Irish terrorists or freedom fighters ( depending on whose side your on)?

Why have the Jews and Palestinians never resolved their differences?

The short answer, VIOLENCE BEGETS VIOLENCE. However force may resolve the situation for a period of time but eventually the cycle of violence will re-appear.

Without understanding, nothing is solved.

Having said all that, I probably know deep in my heart that war and death seem to be part of the psyche of man and war and destruction will continue in cycles throughout the existance of man.
Please, don't take try to take the moral high ground because we are all murderers. ( whether it be as individuals or through proxies of our government, religon etc)
AllanC
(10/11/2001; 23:16:06 MDT - Msg ID: 63425)
BR549...since you asked.
Ok...fair question.

Timothy McVeigh represents a very small minority of Americans who resent government intrusion and corruption, not unlike some posters I've read on this gold forum. He may have acted alone, we don't know.

If he did act alone for his own personal twisted reasons, we could then dismiss his motivations as "fringe" or "lunatic"

But his motivations may represent the aspirations of a larger group not connected to him. You've heard of Branch Davidians and others?... and there's more of them out there. Yet in spite of their small numbers, motivation must be defined....an empirical approach.

But the WTC attackers motivation is representative of a substantial minority of the Arab world, and many educated ones at that. Do they deserve anything less?

Black Blade
(10/11/2001; 23:25:26 MDT - Msg ID: 63426)
RE: Simply Me

If oil prices increase we could see more of the Canadian oil sources become economically viable. I still see the day that the Athabasca Tar Sands could supply a substantial portion of US oil needs with a higher POO. Canada could very well become the OPEC of the north. Perhaps we could see 2 oil blocks develop - Europe and Asia dependent of Euro priced ME oil, and Western hemisphere US dollar priced oil. Perhaps even three major trading blocks such as Euro (Europe and central Asia), Yen (East Asian), and US dollar (Western hemisphere - NAFTA-style). Gold and Silver as a currency would be free-floating and independent of regional controls. Just a thought anyway.

Alternative energy sources: I am not so sure. Unless a cheap method of Cold Fusion can be developed for example, I am afraid that hydrocarbons will be the only source of energy we can count on for many decades to come.

As far as Saudi is concerned, we must realize that they are walking a precarious tightrope as their population is split along tribal and religious lines. Not to mention a royal family that must keep tribal and religious factions in line if the monarchy is to survive. Oil is the only product they have (other than sand). I am afraid that the comments by Prince Alwaleed could easily have been misinterpreted as well. I don't entirely disagree with the prince's comments though. It was our policy of choosing sides in a region of the world and in a conflict that was none of our business that put us in the crosshairs. What is troubling as well is neither side is a friend of the US.

I find it equally strange that the adulterous Mayor Rudy is really milking this terrorist atrocity for political mileage. He sure is enjoying the sudden limelight by poking his face in the TV cameras at every opportunity. Now he is trying to postpone the mayoral election with claims that New York cannot function without him. Truly bizarre. I even saw that governors Levitt (R-UT) and Engler (R-MI) were standing over the corpses under the rubble for photo-ops - I suspect that we will see more ghoulish displays by such sicko politicians seeking to gain political mileage by posing in the stench filled rubble pretending to "feel their pain." I think that we shall see many truly bizarre displays for some time. It is just the world that we live in. Cheers!

- Black Blade
AllanC
(10/11/2001; 23:34:34 MDT - Msg ID: 63427)
BR549...Oh almost forgot.
To the last part of you question. Yes we do try to stop him if we can. That is a given. But that is extraneous to understanding what motivates him.
Black Blade
(10/11/2001; 23:55:29 MDT - Msg ID: 63428)
Saudis make drastic supply cuts to Europe
http://www.gulf-news.com/Articles/news.asp?ArticleID=28925
Snippit:

Leading Opec producer Saudi Arabia has cut November crude oil export allocations to key European customers by a "significant" volume compared to the current month, traders said. The cutback probably signals tighter compliance by Riyadh with the country's existing Opec quota, oil market analysts said.

Black Blade: OPEC oil production cuts begin to take hold. Could hit European corporations "bottom line" with higher energy costs. The Global Recession is sure to get much worse.
Belgian
(10/12/2001; 00:23:48 MDT - Msg ID: 63429)
Allan C / Pandagold
I do enjoy your sense for realism, from both of you. The world as it is ! Thanks, and please, do continue.View Yesterday's Discussion.

Simply Me
(10/12/2001; 00:37:07 MDT - Msg ID: 63430)
@Black Blade
YOU: "Canada could very well become the OPEC of the north. Perhaps we could see 2 oil blocks develop - Europe and Asia dependent of Euro priced ME oil, and Western hemisphere US dollar priced oil. Perhaps even three major trading blocks such as Euro (Europe and central Asia), Yen (East Asian), and US dollar (Western hemisphere - NAFTA-style). Gold and Silver as a currency would be free-floating and independent of regional controls. Just a thought anyway."

ME: More than just a thought, I think. I see that as the next step. A world divided between the Euro, the USDollar and, the eventual Asian winner, the Renmimbi (sp?). However, I think gold would be the world/governmental currency...free-floating as you say. Silver, I think it would remain the poor man's gold, used only in local trading. Even if it becomes quite expensive in our dollar terms, I think it would only be more rarely traded...like platinum or paladium is now.

YOU: "As far as Saudi is concerned, we must realize that they are walking a precarious tightrope as their population is split along tribal and religious lines......"

ME: Actually, I like the Saudi's the best of the ME nations...that's one of the reasons Prince Alwaleed's remarks angered me so much. Making statements like that after touring the WTC rubble, and while still standing on US soil, was like coming to my home and slapping my face. If the same comment had come from Arafat I would have simply considered the source.

As for Giuliani...well, he and his curse (oops, I mean nurse) will be gone soon. There is a very good reason for term limits. They help to keep politicians in line.

Interesting and strange times we live in.
simply

John Doe
(10/12/2001; 01:10:48 MDT - Msg ID: 63431)
AllanC

The ultimate "fallout" from Hiroshima & Nagasaki is still pending. It's probably just my imagination, but that wheel �o karma is a biggie, at times turning ever so slowly. Even without the karmic overhang, memory is persistent, and racial memory more persistent still. Warfare in most times and places is essentially racist violence for economic gain. The "enemy" is different in some way, usually not all that human or as human as you and I, and besides, we want their stuff, or they want ours, or we're told their stuff is actually ours in the first place, or we're more deserving, or "chosen". Apparently, we fall into this syndrome all too easily, it's genetic. It worked OK for sparsely scattered, tiny tribes, but it's likely deadly on a global scale where technological advancement is easily outpacing mental, emotional, and spiritual capacity.

Someday, everybody and every government everywhere turns the other cheek and keeps it turned, or eventually mankind finishes itself off in one shot. For now, the strong have an evolutionary & reproductive advantage over the weak, and perhaps that's why we seem to get ever more deceit, debt, and death instead of less. But the weak aren't necessarily stupid or without their breaking point. As you say, these things generally happen "non-randomly". To deny the existence of cause and effect followed by more cause and effect just perpetuates the chain. Our constitution made turning the other cheek a lot easier by keeping us out of "foreign entanglements" in the first place. Thus falls the rotted fruit of empire where none was authorized...just keep feeding us that paper and we'll stick our nose wherever you say. What's that, somebody remembered, located, and bloodied our nose while we were sitting in our own living room?

The TV says our terrorists are insane and they hate us because we are good and free. The TV also says that to ensure our way of life, we must give up our freedoms, for unless we give up our freedoms, our terrorists will succeed in destroying our way of life, a way of life which essentially consists of not giving up our freedoms. The folks who script the TV must be insane and hate us because we are good and free.
Pandagold
(10/12/2001; 01:17:23 MDT - Msg ID: 63432)
NM Rothschilds quits US
[FWN] Rothschilds Bank cuts staff, exits metals, sources say


By Andrea Hotter
London, Oct. 11 (FWN) N M Rothschild & Sons has exited the base
metals sector globally and is to close down its U.S. bullion desk,
according to sources at the company Thursday.
The London bullion desk will remain, however.
Staff were notified during a meeting that began at 1415 BST. The total
number of redundancies is as yet unconfirmed. An official announcement is
expected Friday, company sources told FWN.
The company is the latest in a line of cutbacks in the metals division
of companies globally following weak market prices and deteriorating
margins.
Belgian
(10/12/2001; 01:56:05 MDT - Msg ID: 63433)
The world as it is....
1,2 billion moslims are living under autocratic, feudal regimes. All these people want to participate in the western prosperity. The authoritarian character of their religion and state, makes this impossible. In the Middle East, jihad, is oil-wealth related. Jihad is a very clumsy way of expressing the desire for democraty and wealth distribution. This is not fitting into the present moslim politico structure. Oil consumers are exploiting this for already more than 50 years now.

Terror might be used against moslim authocraties in a next phase. The ME coalition-leaders are very aware of this evolution and have to make very difficult choices, today.

For the time being, islamist-religion/fundamentalism, hasn't brought oilas such, on the front page. But take a map and color all present and future oil/gas-reserves, under moslim-ground...and realize the importance of it.

So, it is all about oil-democraty-redistribution-prosperity and unbalance. And when we say oil...we mean dollars and consequently Gold.

Western oil-consumers were forced into confrontation. Afraid it will not be the last enforcement and the responses will have to increase in strentgh.
Pandagold
(10/12/2001; 02:24:57 MDT - Msg ID: 63434)
Thinking straight (emotion overrides reason

Thinking straight

When anyone attacks, even verbally, your family, country, culture, religion, and in some cases politics, it is easy to get uptight, become highly emotional and lash back with all we can muster. We may know, ourselves, the shortcomings, we may even have voiced them to ourselves or within 'family', but when expressed by an 'outsider' it touches a nerve which blinds us to reason, and we throw everything at our critic in defence.

When we are fired by this sort of emotion, we can actually convince ourselves that we are right, and we shut out anything which does not support this. This is protecting our ego.

We are seeing this all around us today.

Media is fully aware of this and uses this knowledge to great advantage. We are as putty in their hands when they tug on our emotional heart strings, which they do with such great professionalism. The otherside's version is distorted, doctored photos are shown and lies spread in a repeated and convincing manner. What does it matter if the truth comes out later, if your blindness to that truth in the present achieves its purpose?

When I was young, I would sometimes come home blooded and in tears because I had been set upon by this or that 'bigger than me' bully, or maybe a rival 'gang' had caught me walking home alone and I didn't run fast enough.

My mother would immediately roll up her sleeves (symbolically) accept without hesitation my side of the event and set off in search of the culprits, or say what she would do when she caught them. She would have defended me if they had caught me with a smoking gun in my hand. I know, I see you smile, many of you have such mothers.

If it was my father who was home, there would be no emotion As he would be cleaning me up, he would quietly tell me - people rarely do things without a reason, then ask what had I done to them to cause it.

Of course I wouldn't tell him that on a previous occasion our gang had caught one of them, or I had been calling them names - or whatever we do when we are kids.

However, both mom and dad taught me valuable lessons. Mom taught me that emotion overrides reason. Dad taught me that there are two sides to every coin.

Unfortunately, I lost my father when I was eleven. I lost a great teacher.
tg
(10/12/2001; 03:18:15 MDT - Msg ID: 63435)
pandagold
nice to see you posting again

my mum is still a virgin.
Netking
(10/12/2001; 03:39:48 MDT - Msg ID: 63436)
Oil, Israel, Terror
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0,,2001350006-2001354036,00.htmlA thought provoking article from Friday's edition of 'The Times'.

The traditional Saudi response, which is to purchase loyalty, is no longer sustainable because the kingdom is deeply in debt. That gives the West some modest leverage, at least on the question of depriving Islamist terrorism of funds. Of the 369 terrorist organisations that, on American estimates, exist worldwide, 126 are in the Islamic world and most of them are active mainly against their own governments . . .

*** The trouble when two priorities become three ***

Tony Blair's latest foray into the Arab world reflects his conviction that the West must fight and win the battle for Muslim public opinion. Britain, he believes, is particularly well suited to the task of explaining, to audiences that will often be both anti-American and uninformed, why terrorists have to be confronted and quashed. His theme is that Islamic terrorism must be thwarted in its goal of erecting a barrier of hate and fear between the Muslim and Western worlds, and that this conflict should be understood not as a war of religion but as a power struggle launched by enemies of prosperity and civil peace in their own societies as well as those of the West. He is anxious in particular to assure both rulers and publics of British and American good faith, of their determination to bring good out of evil in return for their co-operation in pursuing and grinding down the networks of terror. . . . "
Canuck
(10/12/2001; 04:11:46 MDT - Msg ID: 63437)
@ Ari
"... there's more involved in Gold's valuation than merely an expression of its current price in any given currency. Put this way it might be clearer; it shouldn't be too hard for you to imagine a fantastic Gold valuation universally seen by eyes throughout the world..."

"The thing I'd like to draw out of people is a recognition and expression of the conditions required for the eyes of all of mankind to see Gold in the highest valuation"

Thank you Sir for your response. Perhaps my baseline post explains the simple inverse mathematical relationship between gold and local currency, perhaps you are asking for
the reasoning for a universal currency failure?

I will ponder....
Canuck
(10/12/2001; 04:35:40 MDT - Msg ID: 63438)
@ Cavan Man
"American's 401K plans have become the defacto social security fund."

Brilliant statement. Studies in demographics (Oro occasionally posts in this area) point to the failure of government sponsered S.S., timelines vary but the end is certain. The obvious manipulation of government to make the SM rise (work as a retirement vehicle) supports your view.

If one is in tune with demographics it becomes clear why governments, in all of its desparations, MUST make the SM's work as the (sole) retirement vehicle.

In this context 'defacto SSF' and 'freak show' become synomonous.(sp)
Canuck
(10/12/2001; 04:37:04 MDT - Msg ID: 63439)
@ BR549
Thanks for your note.

I am working on a response to your message 63378.
Canuck
(10/12/2001; 04:49:35 MDT - Msg ID: 63440)
@ BB
"I am afraid that the comments by Prince Alwaleed could easily have been misinterpreted as well. I don't entirely disagree with the prince's comments though. It was our policy of choosing sides in a region of the world and in a conflict that was none of our business that put us in the crosshairs. What is troubling as well is neither side is a friend of the US."

Black Blade, you are the man. My respect for you has risen to immortal status. Obviously your father taught you that there are 2 sides to a coin as well. (Thanks Panda)

There has been little discussion on this forum as to why the 'evil ones' feel the way they do. I am quite ignorant of ME history (previous wars/confrontations) and I feel it prudent to study this before I make judgement. In the interum, I realize that there is "two sides to the coin".

Canuck.

Pandagold
(10/12/2001; 05:22:57 MDT - Msg ID: 63441)
Tg


tg: Thank you for your kind words, sir. As a matter of idle interest, following up your remarks about your mother, are you also a carpenter by trade, by any chance?
Pandagold
(10/12/2001; 05:26:36 MDT - Msg ID: 63442)
Ages of Man

We have a tendency to give names to the various ages of Man (meaning both sexes, or is it more political correct now to say 'all' sexes).

We have the stone age, iron age bronze age, dark age, industrial age and so on. So what could we apply to today?

Well, the first one that comes to mind is the technological age, or information age or a combination of the two. But more and more I am looking at another word - Spin. The age of Spin.

Sure we have had this spinning of false tales in the past in order to manipulate people's minds. But today with the range and extensive use of mass media it has reached proportions that it is now an art form. Soon there will be degree courses in spindoctoring. I can see the time when your child when asked what he/she wants to be when grown up they will answer -"spindoctor".

And "Why do you want to become a spindoctor my son?"

Well, dad, I feel I have a natural talent for lying and deceiving, don't you agree dad?
Do you remember when you asked me............and I told you .............or when I wanted to...............so I told you..............."

"Yes, son, I get the message. You should sail through your exams"

Whether it is in the gold market, other areas of the financial markets, politics, economics, spin is at work, and we make it so easy for them. For all how we used it on our parents when young, we can't really see it is at work on us in our every day lives.

How do we counteract spin. First we must recognise that it exists and is played out on us. We must stop accepting, at face value, all that is put out by politicians and their like.(especially politicians), remember, besides their own natural talents at lying, cheating and deceiving, they have the help of professional spindoctors - the best that money can buy.

One area to particularly distrust are those media financial pundits, and guru's. If the best of them knew the answers, they wouldn't tell you.

Money flow, the life blood of humanity, will tell you what you want to know. 'Actions speak louder than words' is not a redundant clich�. Listen, or see, how words are phrased especially when answering sticky questions that require a yes or know answer, or requiring it to be specific, and to the point.

I will give you an example. The feeling that other areas in the Middle East is up next for treatment after Afghanistan ( Iraq - Libya - break one stick at a time) is causing great concern within the coalition. Especially by mouthing from some hawks in the US.

Blair, and other leading politicians in their 'whip up support' travels have had these questions put to them. Their replies, especially body language as they shuffle uneasily, tell you the truthful answer. Their mouths say - "First let me say that this operation is purely against Bin Laden and the Taliban who are shielding him - no one else.

Afterwards, we have to look more deeply into the terrorist business. and will take those decisions when we come to them based on our findings" But I emphasise again our struggle is directed purely at Afghanistan...bla bla."

Translation, "After Afghanistan, we are going to bomb the hell out of Iraq if they don't hand over Saddam. Our quarrel is not with the Iraqi people, but if a few million civilians have to die.........."

Gold is not manipulated it refuses to rise because of free market forces. So we are led to believe. I tell you, they could hold the price at whatever they decide. It need not move one cent. The only people capable of 'manipulating' (moving) the price of gold control most of it.

So why does it move at all? Here's a couple of reasons - it would be just that too obvious, and why cause that when you can allow it to move within a range and make money with the futures and options. Those financial institutions have to make money.

Manipulations after a while become predictable, and you can adjust your own tactics accordingly.

It's all enough to make your head 'spin'. Oo-oops, there goes that word again



Black Blade
(10/12/2001; 05:51:03 MDT - Msg ID: 63443)
IEA Slashes World Oil Demand Forecasts
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/011012/business_energy_iea_dc_1.html
Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - World oil demand will contract sharply this winter after the September attacks on the U.S. hit air travel and dampened expectations for a rebound in global economic growth, the International Energy Agency said on Friday. The IEA, in its monthly oil market report, said it had slashed its world oil demand forecast for the fourth quarter of this year by 1.1 million barrels a day to 76.2 million bpd, a fall of 600,000 bpd on the same period in 2000.

The Paris-based agency which represents 25 major oil consuming countries, also revised lower its projection for world demand in the first quarter of next year by 900,000 bpd to 76.5 million bpd, a decline of 400,000 bpd on the first quarter 2001. ``Jet fuel demand accounts for the bulk of the reduction,'' it said.


Black Blade: Yet OPEC will continue to cut production to match demand so prices will likely remain higher. Natural gas suppliers continue to doubt the dubious statistical "assumptions" of the American Gas Association as outlined in yesterday's post #63415. Also NG demand is growing along with lower than reported injection rates and storage data. A natural gas supply crunch could be in the works as AGA data grossly overstates the NG supply. It should be noted that NG drilling activity is falling off fast due to lower prices and winter weather. This will impact energy prices as shorter darker and colder days result in increased demand. Consumers will give up a lot - but not food, shelter, and energy. Higher energy prices will act as a cap on any economic recovery. In a word - "Grim"

Off to keep the "Grasshoppers" cozy and warm.
Pandagold
(10/12/2001; 07:14:56 MDT - Msg ID: 63444)
Moo--ney River
Of course I may be wrong (me, moi, mich, wo, Panda wrong? even admitting the possibility), but intuition tells me that if the market continues its thrust upwards this afternoon, the last day before a weekend, one where we have had 'stark' warnings from that credible institution of government the FBI that there are likely to be more terror attacks any day, then I will not be taking them too seriously.

I do not believe there is too much real new sucker money in the market at the moment. If any is still in they would be taking it out.

Remember my story of Ratty and the river talking to him (Wind in the Willows).

The Money River (no not Moon River, clown, I can spell, well, sometimes) is worth watching and listening to. Serious money has usually some intelligence behind it. That's how they acquired it in the first place.

Please don't cite me Uncle Joe who had a couple of million dollars, left him by his aunt Maud and blew it. A couple of million today, you're a pauper amongst even the lower level rich. Anyway, uncle Joe didn't make it himself.


(Incidentally, they say God loves the poor, He must, He made so many of us)

Yes, I will be watching the Money River this afternoon - "Mo---ney River, wider than a mile' I'm watching you in style..............."

Have a nice day
Panda
WAC (Wide Awake Club)
(10/12/2001; 07:18:18 MDT - Msg ID: 63445)
@Pandagold - What's going down. First Rostchild, now CSFB
http://www.reuters.co.uk/news_article.jhtml?type=businessnews&StoryID=285441By Kate Haywood

LONDON (Reuters) - Swiss investment bank Credit Suisse First Boston, in a drive to slash costs after a hefty third quarter loss, says it will close its London, New York and Sydney precious metals operations.

CSFB said on Friday it would withdraw from the benchmark twice-daily London gold fix, stop making markets in precious metals and derivatives and shut down its clearing and storage business as it pressed to cut $1 billion (690 million pounds) in costs by the end of next year.

CSFB, a unit of Switzerland's second-largest bank, Credit Suisse Group, surprised the market earlier this week by announcing 2,000 job cuts after a third-quarter loss of 300 million Swiss francs (125 million pounds) amid writedowns on its insurance holdings and airlines exposure.

"Job losses resulting from the closing of these (precious metals) businesses were included in the headcount reduction figures announced by CSFB earlier this week," CSFB said in a brief statement.

CSFB took up a London fixing seat -- one of just five -- in June of last year, saying this reflected its commitment to the global gold market. The others are held by Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Scotia Mocatta and NM Rothschild, which has chaired the fix since it began 80 years ago.

NM Rothschild and ScotiaMocatta both announced job cuts in their base metals operations this week.

The bullion move followed job cuts this week at its Hong Kong investment bank office.

CSFB said it would satisfy its existing long-term hedge contracts with gold and silver producers. It said it has no net hedge or market position at the moment.

BR549
(10/12/2001; 07:26:19 MDT - Msg ID: 63446)
Speaking about bias in the media--look at what they're doing to Gold
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AO8blaBSkQ3JlZGl0"London, Oct. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Credit Suisse First Boston said it quit the twice-daily gold ``fix'' in London, the latest blow to a session where five banks set the benchmark price used in the $42 billion-a-year bullion market.

Gold, once seen has a haven from global turbulence, has risen only 4.4 percent since the Sept. 11 attacks on the U.S. to around $285 an ounce. Inflation-adjusted prices are near a 28-year low, and trading volume in London reached a record low in July as investors lost interest in the market.

``This highlights how dead and small the gold market has become,'' said Ted Arnold, an analyst at Prudential Bache. ``Gold has no promise. There's no better evidence than that"


The CB's have once again coordinated a death knell for Gold. The "paper" continues to fall with the blessing of the equity houses. Possibly when TPTB quit paying attention altogether will the metal be allowed to seek it's real value level.

BR549
Tommy P
(10/12/2001; 07:29:38 MDT - Msg ID: 63447)
Worldnewspapers
http://www.theguychannel.com/news/worldnewspapers.htmI thought this will help us out, seeing another view from the world, happy reading, cheers!!!
CoBra(too)
(10/12/2001; 07:47:45 MDT - Msg ID: 63448)
A Huge Chunk of the G7 Oil (&Gas) -
Comes from arab and moslem countries and they have a cartel - OPEC. The governments of some of these countries are already in precarious positions, which may be becoming more so with the day. And any amical notion towards the West can change overnight, as Iran, Iraq and some of the
potentially new 'members' of the caspian- or Baku (east) region (Chechenya)are predominatly muslim too.

I also heartily welcome you back Aristotle. It's about time! - to reread your great expose on oil (vs gold) - was it a trilogy or, rather a quintrology - guess it's still one of the outstanding works on HoF. My hint would be for all to re-read your classic series.
Far from being a champ, also I've been lucky to about double my exposure - definitely not the word ... my wealth and insurance of physical may be more descriptive - due to some paper mining concerns, which more than doubled over that time horizon.
- And as some major chimps - seems like always the same names JPMC and under disguise of the major hedging gold community as ABX, AU and PDG (see also ASL)others too- are buying big chunks of some unencumbered "money" mines the last judgement is still out - for the chimps, not so for the futile futures paper chumps.

Stoically, I wait to see how this madness plays out for all too see and like you i sleep assured and amongst others thanks to you - I've got me some more physical - cb2



Pandagold
(10/12/2001; 08:05:09 MDT - Msg ID: 63449)
WAC and others , as to what is happening?
WAC: I had already posted that bit of news a few posts earlier. As to what is going on is fairly obvious, they are trying to get down to that last goldbug, I told you about. Don't you think this is the best oopportunity of all for them to do this? This is why I sold ALL my mining shares - last lot some Australian Delta Gold Monday. Good company, being taken over by Goldfields of Australia.

Don't worry too much. I warned you will have to go through this first. They will rise again in the not too distant future (psst, they have too much invested in it themselves for it to die altogether). Actually, the mines are holding up pretty well at the moment. That should tell you something.

My advice. Just lie down and pretend to be dead, but keep an eye and ear on that river. China too will will see no serious harm comes to the precious metal. Quietly accrue at the low prices.

Have the patience of the Chinese.
Simply Me
(10/12/2001; 08:10:35 MDT - Msg ID: 63450)
@Pandagold...RE: msg #: 63434
YOU: "Mom taught me that emotion overrides reason. Dad taught me that there are two sides to every coin."

ME: And does Mrs. Pandagold agree with you?
CoBra(too)
(10/12/2001; 08:13:41 MDT - Msg ID: 63451)
Retail Sales fell 2.4% in September -
My only comment would be "only"! Though, probably, people loaded up on essential bascis in the wake of WTC and bombs "falling" together with reality, while SM's are surging on zero to negative future earnings.

...but, as long as the printing press of the $ makes up the difference - the delusion may take on proportions - or has already- of epical, hist(e)orical distortions - cb2
Mr Gresham
(10/12/2001; 08:25:11 MDT - Msg ID: 63452)
auspec: "Warrior Madness"
http://www.startrek.com/library/episodes_tos_detail.asp?ID=68792Anyone remember the Star Trek episode (link above): "Day of the Dove", when Klingons and Enterprise crew together are infected by a third force feeding off their hatred for its own sport and existence?

"A malevolent entity has entered into the U.S.S. Enterprise computer and excites both sides to aggressive behavior. It forces the ship out of control, rushing toward the galactic rim, while isolating a number of Klingons and U.S.S. Enterprise crew, heightening their sense of paranoia and violence turning them against each other. Phasers become swords and the battle begins.

"Spock finally realizes that the entity feeds off hatred and emotional excitation and has acted as a catalyst to provoke combat, keeping the numbers on both sides even. Kirk is able, in the end, to make a common-cause truce with the Klingons and they drive the creature out of the ship with their laughter. "

Or, as Al Pacino put it in Godfather III, "Don't get angry. It distorts your judgment."

Much relieved in the past weeks, I don't see "warrior madness" gripping us today, despite the use of force. It seems to me our country has matured since Vietnam, and does not resort to the kinds of demonizing propaganda that was used to "fire up the troops" (and the recruiting offices) as far back as WWI (when it was "Huns bayoneting nurses holding babies in Belgium.")

There is also still the sadness and the pure, undigested State of Shock still lingering from the magnitude of Sept. 11's guerilla action. A lot of "growing up fast" can come out of that as we look ahead to future events.

Bush and Powell this time have walked a fine rhetorical line, partly because of oil, and partly because, this time, going in, we could be really, really scared. Scared that this "Jihad" train has already left the station, and no amount of diplomacy, bribery, or future "niceness" can call it back.

It's going to cost mega-mega-bucks, and still can't be fixed.

What would geo-political maturity (better late than never?) look like under such a scenario?
Christian
(10/12/2001; 08:31:19 MDT - Msg ID: 63453)
EURO--US$--Renminbi
Gold will be the world government UN currency The US$ will be north, central and south American currency. Euro will be European currency which will include Russia. Most of Asia will end up with the renminbi. All gold is now moving to the U.N. USA is exporting its gold at a rate of about 60 tons a month. Same thing is happening with European gold and Chinese gold. Gold will be the world U.N. governmental currency where each nation has drawing rights (SDR's). USA has exported most of its gold in return for SDR certivicates which most of those certivicates are already used (spend). USA is using Bin Laden who is a product of our CIA as a means to start a war with Russia. Just like the assasination of any leader who wants to make gold money, Russia can not be allowed to bring gold into circulation. Gold stands in the way of our way to plunder their natural resources of oil, natural gas, timber and productive land for crops. Our God is money (the paper kind) and the World Currency Cartel want uniform global currencies under U.N. control by means of the SDR's. We are allmost there, and once we get there the stock market made up of world companies like Wal Mart, McDonald's etc will create a new bull market for stocks....... while gold will stay at $275.00+ or -........ After Afghanistan USA will move into Turkey and then on into other countries like Iraq. The merchants of debt will finance both sides in the name of their usury profits.
Henri
(10/12/2001; 08:41:15 MDT - Msg ID: 63454)
Cobra2
I too noticed JPMB's foray into shares of Harmony. It coincided with a South Africa only consolidation of odd lots of shares into 100 share tranches in a move to "save money". The alleged buyer of record of the odd lots that were cashed out if they did not elect to trade up to a even 100 share lot was NOT proclaimed as JPMB on the request for approval of the program by shareholders. I wonder how it is that JPMB ended up with the odd lot liquidation shares? It is not a large holding of the total but who knows how many other shares they own by other names or in street names to be reclaimed at their whim. I don't like the smell of this...

Trail guide seems to have pointed out the right direction things are headed...I'm gettin' out of paper gold...on the NEXT Rally :-)
Pandagold
(10/12/2001; 08:44:08 MDT - Msg ID: 63455)
Simply Me
Simply Me: I got rid of her because she didn't agree with me. (ask a silly question and you get.....)
Pandagold
(10/12/2001; 08:46:31 MDT - Msg ID: 63456)
If we only knew (what some MUST know)

It was a 19th century British politician, Disraeli I believe, who said something to the effect that if the people really knew what went on behind the closed doors of their government, there would be a bloody revolution overnight.

I am becoming more convinced by the day, that what is going on at the moment is one of the greatest misuses of responsible government ever (though there have been many others).

I firmly believe if we all knew the true story behind September 11th, and what is following, and planned for the future, there would be many governments going to the guillotine that would make the French Revolution seem a Sunday school picnic.

If the markets continue as they are at this moment, you can all feel safe in your beds tonight. There is absolutely NOTHING ethical that could justify that fall before the Sept 11 and its rise now. Yet, they could justify it. a paradox?

'Reasons', like statistics and opinion polls, can be made to justify ANYTHING.

How many times have you heard the same reasons given for why a market is going up, as for why, on another occasion it is going down?

Let the buyer beware. End of story
Henri
(10/12/2001; 08:47:06 MDT - Msg ID: 63457)
Christian
I think we will see Argentina as the first SA defector to the Euro. They will back