USAGOLD Discussion - February 2002

All times are U.S. Mountain Time

Waverider
(02/01/2002; 00:19:23 MDT - Msg ID: 69129)
WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM: Japan's Woes Cast Pall Over Forum
http://www.iht.com/articles/46597.htmlSnippit:
"International financial leaders are growing increasingly concerned about Japan's huge debt and dire economic condition, even to the point of suggesting that further deterioration could trigger global financial instability.
"It is not an exaggeration to say that this is the biggest risk to the global economy in 2002," Kenneth Courtis, vice chairman of Goldman Sachs Asia, said at the start of the World Economic Forum meetings here. "It would be na�ve to expect that the unwinding of a crisis of this magnitude would not generate vast global volatility," he warned.
"I think the international community should see this for what it is," he warned, "and that is the biggest economic and financial crisis in any major economy since the 1930s.
"There is a Himalaya of debt that is crushing the economy at a time of recession and deflation," said Mr. Courtis. "We have never seen a debt level this high in any country at any time in history."

Standard Poor's said Thursday that more delays in Japan's economic reform program could lead it to downgrade the country's sovereign rating for a third time. Mr. Courtis said that bad debts in the Japanese banking system could amount to more than 25 percent of the country's entire GDP while he expected total government debt to rise to more than 150 percent of GDP next year. "The level of debt makes Enron look like nothing."
Black Blade
(02/01/2002; 00:31:54 MDT - Msg ID: 69130)
Old Mutual Sells AngloGold, Buys Gold Fields, Harmony Gold
http://www.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?T=marketsquote99_news.ht&s=APFldphRNT2xkIE11
Snippit:

Johannesburg, Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Old Mutual Asset Managers, South Africa's biggest investor, said it is selling shares in AngloGold Ltd. and buying its rivals, betting they'll gain more from an expected rally in the gold price.

AngloGold, the No. 2 producer, has commitments to deliver 14.6 million ounces of gold at preset prices, limiting its benefit if gold gains, Old Mutual said. Gold Fields Ltd. and Harmony Gold Mining Co., South Africa's second and third-biggest producers, sell at current prices.

``Harmony and Gold Fields are more geared to the gold price,'' Alwyn van der Merwe, senior portfolio manager at Old Mutual, said at a press conference. ``For Harmony the gearing is phenomenal because they are not hedged at all.''

Gold, which has halved in price since 1980, is set for a rebound, said Michael Schroder, who manages Mutual's resources funds. The gold price will likely gain as producers have bought back gold they had sold at pre-set prices, reducing the supply. ``In the medium term we think there is still some upside potential for the gold price,'' Van der Merwe said.

Black Blade: Even SA mutual Funds don't want AngloGold shares. Who wants to invest in a hedger anyway. This is my game plan. I would rather invest in a company that believes in its product. The consensus is that the POG will rise. I would not want shares of a company with no upside leverage to the POG. This SA investment group and others like it are refusing to invest in hedge fund miners. Notice that most Gold Funds have very few shares of AngloGold and Barrick anymore. That should be a good sign for the POG as the smart money is betting on higher prices.
Belgian
(02/01/2002; 00:59:08 MDT - Msg ID: 69131)
The Myths of "unwinding" goldmine Hedges !?
Approximately 3.000 tonnes of "underground" gold has been *SOLD* forward ! This hedging goes with a labyrinth of accompagning "derivatives", unknown to the public.

How can one "UNWIND" these forward sales ???? And what is to be understood when goldminers/hedgers, announce such unwinding ???

Are they buying Gold on the market to deliver physical into their hedging contracts ? NO THEY DON'T !!
Are they speeding up mining to deliver the underground gold faster into their hedging contracts ? NO THEY DON'T !!

*Unwinding* means nothing more than a decline in the rolling over/replacement of the existing hedges with new ones. Or an intention to stop hedging when an unsuspected POG explosion is jeopardising the bulk of 3.000 tonnes existing forward sales.

Goldmine shareholders are fooled and blatantly mislead with mine propaganda ! TIA for contrarian vieuws.

Topaz
(02/01/2002; 02:28:07 MDT - Msg ID: 69132)
Belgian - Carl H - All
http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalgold.htmlBelgian:-
The "unwinding" MUST have some positive affect on supply / demand due to bullion finding it's way back to the original lessor. (CB via BB) Maybe a suicidal BB will roll it back into the market and remain naked, but I'm pretty sure the originator would want it close by in these troubled times eh? One other thing to remember is while the BoE auctions still cause a kerfuffle in the Spot market every three Mth's or so, the Suisse via BIS is quietly dispersing 1500 T with nary a ripple - if I was keen to unwind a forward position, I know where I'd head to settle it.
Carl H:-
The link's for you.
All:-
On MK's suggestion just touching base, great to see Townie, BB and all the regulars still manning the Fort...Me, fixing my boat and accumulating when able.....it's getting close!
Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD
(02/01/2002; 03:29:53 MDT - Msg ID: 69133)
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http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

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TownCrier
(02/01/2002; 03:53:28 MDT - Msg ID: 69134)
Empires, rising or falling, all trade gold in London
http://www.iii.co.uk/uknews/?articleid=4282550∾tion=articleAnd the monetary orientation of London is shifting.

Excerpt from above article:

--------LONDON (AFX) - One of the government's leading euro-sceptics, rural affairs secretary Margaret Beckett, will come out in favour of UK membership of the single currency, the Financial Times reported.

...Beckett's conversion means the balance of opinion among senior ministers is shifting in the lead-up to a potential referendum on UK euro entry---------

In time, the dollar's international value will have to stand on its own (domestic) fundamental merits. Like the Argentine people have discovered with their own accounts, "money in the bank" has different meanings as times change. The ability of your money to buy cake and champagne today may scarcely be an ability to buy bread and butter tomorrow.

As a very real item in a very real world, gold is your economic shock absorber for the "bumps" ahead on a road built on confidence.

R.
Mr Gresham
(02/01/2002; 06:54:13 MDT - Msg ID: 69135)
Belgian, Topaz: The Unwinding
("Good morn-ing, New Yawk!" I always love it when I see a little upward POG squiggle those first moments in Fun City.)

That's what I don't get in these stories about the supposed positive impact on POG. Of course, it's positive if they don't rollover or hedge further; that is a reduced amount of new selling.

But they sold forward/hedged in the first place in order to get operating cash (or dividend payout cash?) -- they need to put cash IN to buy back a position. Unwinding costs money, right? (Unless all they had done was to sell an out-of-the-money call, which might be expiring worthless.) And if they are delivering into forward sales, then that is operating cash they are not receiving NOW.

If miners are reducing hedges/forward sales, then someone must be financing it for them. Anyone know if I'm way off course here?
RS
(02/01/2002; 06:56:59 MDT - Msg ID: 69136)
Some great sites for quotations on the Fed, banking, etc...
Some great sites for quotations on the Fed, banking, etc...

http://www.freedomdomain.com/bankquot.html


Congressman Louis T. McFadden's speech before congress circa 1933:
http://iresist.com/cbg/mcfadden_speech_1932.html

God bless America!
Max Rabbitz
(02/01/2002; 07:35:12 MDT - Msg ID: 69137)
Does Arthur Anderson do the Labor Reports?
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Economy&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_econ&refer=econtop&T=markets_frontsummary_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_economy&bt2=blk∣dle=ad_frame2_economy&s=APFqZJRTJVS5TLiBKBloomberg reports U.S. January Jobless Rate Fell to 5.6% from 5.8%!!!!!!!!!

But payrolls fell by 89,000 last month!! Do some people have jobs but no paychecks? Analysts had expected payrolls to drop by only 50,000 but yet a rise in Jobless to 5.9%.

Did hundreds of thousand people suddenly disappear? Did alien abductions increase dramatically? No, because the Labor Department also said the percentage of the U.S. population holding jobs fell to 62.6 percent in January from 63 percent in December. They are still here amongst us but just not counted in the official jobless rate. The bone pile grows.
R Powell
(02/01/2002; 07:38:59 MDT - Msg ID: 69138)
Lease rates
http://www.kitco.com/market/LFrate.html are up substantially this morning on gold. The one year rate fell just a little short of doubling! There is still plenty of gold but perhaps the unwinding of hedges is at play here. Now no more carry trade and unwinding too, boy, it doesn't get much better than this.
Which will move the greatest percentage wise this year, gold up or JPM-Chase down?
Rich
Canuck Gold
(02/01/2002; 08:02:45 MDT - Msg ID: 69139)
Mr Gresham , Belgian, Topaz
I'd like to add something to this discussion based recent experiences. I own a significant number of shares in a junior gold mining company which announced some time in 2000 that they had hedged their full production through the end of 2002, and it may have been through 2003 as well, though I don't recall exactly. As you can imagine, I was very much dismayed by that news.

However, last summer they announced that, due to changing financial fortunes and projections, they had closed out most their hedge book through mid 2004 and would have only 8000+ hedged ounces left on their books at the end of 2001. The interesting part of the announcement was the statement that they had made a profit from the hedge book closure and they applied those funds to reduce debt.

It would appear, therefore, that it depends on how a hedge book is structured whether a company has to come up with funds to close it out. If the gold is actually sold forward, cash or production would be required to buy it back. But if the hedge is a contract to sell in the future at a certain price which is much higher than the current price, I can see how that could generate a positive cash flow on closure.

CG
R Powell
(02/01/2002; 08:14:47 MDT - Msg ID: 69140)
Unwinding
If paying back leased (and sold) metal, then the payback must come from mine production or an outright purchace of metal. Either way this cost money to unwind.
If the unwinding is stopping the practice of forward sales, then there is no cost and the payment received for future production is not locked in. This may bring greater profits in the future or smaller profits (even losses).
If the unwinding is stopping the practice of rolling forward sales (in the futures market), then forward sales will cease but those previously made sales must be honored. This can be done by delivery or by buying back the sold contracts. Either way, this requires a cash outflow.
Two of these three unwinding scenarios require capital and may, therefore, be done gradually. Sentiment (as a new poster mentioned yesterday-Welcome aboard) may determine how quickly the process evolves. It will be easy to not sell forward on price spikes upward if nobody else sells forward but what is your plan if your competition is selling forward on price rises. They'll lock in a profitable price while hammering the price back down. Yes, they're shooting themselves in the foot but can you afford to do nothing in this industry environment? Price will also be paramount as buying back at say $285 is easy for that which was sold at $290 but rather painful for that which was sold at $270. Convincing those selling to hold for more gain will slow hedging. Demand swamping supply leading to steadily higher prices should just about end forward sales, no?
I believe most of the forward sales of the past have been OTC deals not reflected in Comex numbers. Is there any way this unwinding can be verified or tracked? If I'm correct in guessing this will be a slow process, this will give strong support to POG (and silver!) all the way up. It's about time the miners became bugs.
Go Gold Go Patriots!
Rich
R Powell
(02/01/2002; 08:19:14 MDT - Msg ID: 69141)
Lease rates correction
I just checked the link and saw that Kitco has changed the rates and the increases. Still positive but just barely. Our Usagold link gives the rates only up to the end of last year. Can this be updated?
Thanks
Rich
USAGOLD Market Commentary
(02/01/2002; 08:32:18 MDT - Msg ID: 69142)
Confluence of Events Pushing Gold HigherNEWS & VIEWS Update!
Available online to all clientele and prospective clientele, NEWS & VIEWS Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has again been updated.

Read the full commentary and related information here. (access codes required)

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"In light of the substantial shift in fundamentals and the extreme lag in the recognition of these changes, the magnitude of the market adjustment is likely to be surprising. Whether the price adjustment occurs quickly or evolves over several years, the outcome will be a dollar gold price that is comfortably within four-digit territory. " John Hathaway, DeTocqueville Funds

Gold Market Brief (2/1/02). . . . . . . Gold surged in early New York trading. The positive sentiment evident throughout the week has been driven by a steady stream of announcements from mine company officials that they would now begin buying back their hedges. This turn of events has been coupled with consistently strong international physical demand over the past 30 days. These developments in turn have encouraged short covering. Investors in Japan and Europe -- each for their own reasons (See "Worth Keeping" below) are playing a major role in putting a floor under the gold price. Demand is running strong despite the ongoing strength of the U.S. dollar with London traders now citing the possibility that gold will break the $285 barrier. The Enron Effect has hardly dissipated either encouraging large portfolio hedge purchases among well-heeled American investors. An article by John Crudele in the New York Post yesterday raises the possibility that the huge Wall Street bank, JP Morgan/Chase, could be the next major U.S. corporation on the ropes. If so, that would be a important turn of events for gold. JPM is consistently cited by analysts as one of the derivative players keeping a lid on the gold price. Rumors are running rampant in the markets that there are more corporate surprises waiting in the wings -- Morgan perhaps being chief among them. It seems that when gold does want to run, it runs fast and hard -- an indicator that a major breakout may be brewing. Volumes at USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals have picked up again with quite a few IRA rollovers in the works and strong interest across the boards. Requests for information packets are running at levels we haven't seen for a couple of years.

* * *

Short & Sweet. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . This from India's Economic Times debunks the myth perpetuatued by gold's detractor's that it has lost its luster as a central bank reserve item : "Yellow magic: Gold may have lost some of its glitter as currencies emerged as hot investment options over the decades. But central banks still repose their confidence in the yellow metal,

R Powell
(02/01/2002; 08:36:45 MDT - Msg ID: 69143)
Nice way to end week
If they can hold the gains, POG is up, POS is up and all three mining stock indexes are soaring this morning.
The Drooy fans will be totally unbearable this afternoon if Drooy punches through $2.00. It's very close now. I remember them screaming when it went through a dollar not so long ago. I think I'll hang around with them, they'll all be buying drinks. I'll buy when POS explodes.
Rich
RobotGuy
(02/01/2002; 09:44:37 MDT - Msg ID: 69144)
Ohhh, Ohhhhh!
Oh recouperating N/A market, where are your cheerleaders today??
Spartacus
(02/01/2002; 09:59:58 MDT - Msg ID: 69145)
Argentina
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=David%20DeRosa&touch=1&s1=derosa&tp=ad_topright_bbco&T=markets_fgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_bbco&bt=ad_bottom_bbco&s=APFeBGxTXQXJnZW50
Argentina's New Central Banker in a Tight Spot by David DeRosa

New Canaan, Connecticut, Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Mario Blejer, the new president of Argentina's central bank, has promised not to be irresponsible. He says he won't print money to relieve his country's massive indebtedness.

Monday's Financial Times quoted Blejer as saying: ``The central bank can now print money to finance government operations or to assist banks as a lender of last resort. But this is not to say the central bank will do that. . . . I really intend to be very independent in that sense, very responsible.''

RobotGuy
(02/01/2002; 10:13:38 MDT - Msg ID: 69146)
Whoa!!
I think we're going to see an impressive drop today. I'll hazard to guess DOW will reach 9500. Investors remain uncertain given some positive news. I think the lemmings are actually turning around. Follow the leader in a real hurry, we have to catch up to the market's real value (DOW real value = 5500).
Max Rabbitz
(02/01/2002; 10:30:28 MDT - Msg ID: 69147)
Japanese Gold
I've noticed an increasing interest in historic Japanese gold at the big internet auction house. The historic gold Nishu-kin, 1832-1858, from the Tempo Era that a couple months ago regularly went for about $50 is now more expensive, today being bid up to $74. This is a small (8 x 13 mm) rectangular "coin" with maybe a gram or two of gold. Perhaps this reflects the increased Japanese interest in gold.
Black Blade
(02/01/2002; 10:35:35 MDT - Msg ID: 69148)
Employment Data - Behind the Numbers
http://biz.yahoo.com/fo/020201/0201jobs_1.htmlDon't Celebrate The Jobs Numbers Yet

Snippit:

Deciphering the tea leaves issued monthly in the form of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' unemployment numbers has become a national pastime thanks to a brutal job market. These numbers mean more than they have in the past decade to both the jobless and the gainfully employed--all of whom are trying to assess their future prospects.

There will no doubt be "feel good" headlines for the January numbers, trumpeting the decline in the unemployment rate of two-tenths of a percentage point, to 5.6% in January from December's 5.8%. The nation lost 89,000 nonfarm jobs--indeed the smallest decline since August 2001. But that's still a decline.

Employment has been declining every month since the recession began in March 2001, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics analyst Thomas Nardone, but things really started heating up in the second half of 2001. In August there were 54,000 jobs lost, in September that figure was 165,000, October had 488,000 jobs lost and in November, jobs dropped by 355,000.

The civilian labor force is defined as those people who are either employed or actively seeking a job, and it fell by a whopping 940,000 in January. "So at face value what this says is that a lot of people were really discouraged about the prospect of finding a job and gave up." Burtless speculates that this is possible since most of us live with families where there is more than one working person in the home. Also contributing to this phenomenon are the many older people who have lost their jobs and are unable to find work, forcing them to fall back on their pensions instead.

Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" continues to grow in spite of what on the surface looks like a decrease in the jobless rate. This of course is simply more BLS statistical massage. Aside from the data filter known as "Seasonality" we must realize that many hired for the holidays did not qualify for benefits, many never even applied, and yet many more simply have given up in what is a dismal job market. The report is more window dressing than substance. There are also many women who will stay out of the workforce for the time being as stay-at-home moms. Elderly or previously retired will rely on pensions. Others will likely be "under-employed" taking lower wages until the economy improves. There is really nothing new here. Not even the BLS statistical manipulation of data is new. The "Bone Pile" continues to grow.
Black Blade
(02/01/2002; 10:39:45 MDT - Msg ID: 69149)
Lear to cut 6,500 jobs in restructuring
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020201/n01252475_2.html
Snippit:

DETROIT, Feb 1 (Reuters) -- Automotive parts maker Lear Corp. (NYSE:LEA) said on Friday it will cut 6,500 jobs, or about 6 percent of its work force, and close 21 sites worldwide to cut costs amid slower vehicle production.

Black Blade: Zero financing is done and now the fallout. More nonessential "Bones" are cast upon the growing "Bone Pile".
Black Blade
(02/01/2002; 10:42:45 MDT - Msg ID: 69150)
Dow to Reduce Work Force by 700 Jobs
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20020201/bs/dow_corning_jobs_2.html
Snippit:

MIDLAND, Mich. (AP) - Dow Corning Corp. said Friday it plans to cut about 700 jobs, or 8.2 percent of its global work force, as part of an effort to cut costs as it posted losses for the fourth quarter and all of 2001.

Black Blade: Yep, more nonessential "Bones".
Black Blade
(02/01/2002; 10:48:05 MDT - Msg ID: 69151)
Staples cuts 326 jobs, looking to close 30 stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020201/n01171677_1.html
Snippit:

In New York story, headlined ``Staples cut 236 jobs, looking to close 30 stores,'' please read figure in headline and first paragraph as 326 instead of 236.

Black Blade: More nonessential "Bones" that supply businesses. The closing of more stores does not suggest a booming robust economy. I haven't even covered lost jobs from small companies, but they number in the thousands (every day).
Black Blade
(02/01/2002; 10:53:38 MDT - Msg ID: 69152)
Lucent Tells Workers of 800 Job Cuts
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/020131/lucent_layoffs_1.html
Snippit:

Telecommunications Equipment Maker Lucent Notifies Workers of 800 Job Cuts.

Black Blade: Yep, more nonessential "Bones". Even Avon products announced 326 job cuts, and TDK announced 400 job cuts. Not a sign of a robust economy.
Black Blade
(02/01/2002; 11:09:49 MDT - Msg ID: 69153)
Is Qwest playing accounting games?
http://www.msnbc.com/news/697272.asp?0si=-
Snippit:

Jan. 31 - In light of the financial train wreck we call Enron, and the predicament in which its one-time auditor, Arthur Andersen, now finds itself, you might think that companies would want to be absolutely hospital-corners tidy when fielding inquiries about their accounting practices these days, right? Say, for example, you were to ask a company whether it pulled some of its revenue forward a month, from January 2001 to December 2000, just to dress up its year-end 2000 financials a bit. You might think the answer would be squeaky clean. You might be wrong.

Black Blade: Another accounting scandal in the works. Yeah, you might have guessed it already - this Baby Bell's accountant is Arthur Andersen! It pains me because I have Qwest shares (flushing sound). Good article though.
Max Rabbitz
(02/01/2002; 11:10:17 MDT - Msg ID: 69154)
Rudy.....DROOY at $2.01
:-)
schippi
(02/01/2002; 11:16:17 MDT - Msg ID: 69155)
Gold Wake Up Call
http://www.SelectSectors.com/goldindx.gif Up, Up and away!
Waverider
(02/01/2002; 11:17:27 MDT - Msg ID: 69156)
Egypt's CCSI
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?uDoes anyone know what happened to Egypt's CCSI exchange yesterday? It looks like they croaked - down 99.41% to 3.58 (or computer glich)?
CHEERS,
Waverider
Black Blade
(02/01/2002; 11:20:32 MDT - Msg ID: 69157)
GAAP vs. Pro Forma
http://www.smartstockinvestor.com/commentary.html
NASDAQ 100 Companies Report Combined Losses of over $82 Billion to the SEC While Reporting Profits of $19 Billion to Shareholders

Snippit:

For the first three quarters of 2001, the one hundred companies that make up the NASDAQ 100 reported $82.3 billion in combined losses to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). For the same period, these companies reported $19.1 billion in combined profits to shareholders via headline, "pro forma" earnings reports-a difference of $101.4 billion or over $1 billion per company.

Black Blade: Good article on how companies "beat the street" with lies and deception via suspect data. The graphs say it all. This should encourage anyone to seek portfolio protection with hard assets like Gold and Silver.
Black Blade
(02/01/2002; 11:30:13 MDT - Msg ID: 69158)
Japan -'Biggest Risk to the Global Economy in 2002,' Financier Says
http://www.iht.com/articles/46597.htm
Snippit:

NEW YORK International financial leaders are growing increasingly concerned about Japan's huge debt and dire economic condition, even to the point of suggesting that further deterioration could trigger global financial instability.

"It is not an exaggeration to say that this is the biggest risk to the global economy in 2002," Kenneth Courtis, vice chairman of Goldman Sachs Asia, said at the start of the World Economic Forum meetings here. "It would be na�ve to expect that the unwinding of a crisis of this magnitude would not generate vast global volatility," he warned.

Mr. Courtis said that bad debts in the Japanese banking system could amount to more than 25 percent of the country's entire GDP while he expected total government debt to rise to more than 150 percent of GDP next year.

"The bad debts in the banking system are so high that the government is going to have to fill the hole. Plus you have to add government debt, insurance company loans, commercial paper and bonds," Mr. Courtis said. "The level of debt makes Enron look like nothing."

Black Blade: And therefore we see a growing number of Japanese buying Gold. I can imagine that there are a lot of quiet discussions about the Japanese situation at "Davos by the Hudson" this week.
Mr Gresham
(02/01/2002; 11:56:42 MDT - Msg ID: 69159)
Think
You know yourself, by now, and your emotions. See if you recognize this one:

On Spike Day, no matter how much you're holding, you'll wish you'd bought more. "Gee, I coulda upped it another 5%"

And: "Now do I chase it, along the the rest of 'em?"

Mirror image of the frustrating and depressing years of 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001 (go back as far as you need to here)...
Black Blade
(02/01/2002; 12:18:20 MDT - Msg ID: 69160)
Gold gain points to currency risk - 'Strange' buying of metal may be sign of distress
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B47236EC1%2D7D0A%2D4F82%2D8232%2D601630268D3B%7D&siteid=mktw

Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - As the world's economic leaders meet in New York, professionals wonder whether gold's steady price rise this week is the first crack in the global currencies dam. UBS Warburg's precious metals team Friday said, "Gold remains strangely supported despite the strength in the U.S. dollar. Although there has been news of good buying out of bank-distressed Japan, the reported quantities are not enough to explain the precious metal's recent resilience. We suspect that one or more large buying programs have been executed since the start of the year."

Ken Landon, a Deutsche Banc analyst in Tokyo, explains a rising gold price almost always indicates depreciating currencies, regardless of exchange rates. In the past 12 months, the yen, he says in a report, has fallen 21 percent against gold. The euro has lost 15 percent of its value against gold. The dollar is off by 6 percent.

Landon's report is making the rounds in Asia. His view is one that may come to haunt investors in coming weeks. "The rising price of gold in all the major currencies indicates that investors have been losing confidence in the monetary policies of Japan, Europe and the U.S., in that order of concern," he says.

A foreign exchange analyst, Landon says the Federal Reserve, whose policies are increasingly inconsequential to consumers and investors, and American lawmakers are to blame, on this side of the globe, anyway.

Reports that Japanese consumers are rushing to buy gold, first reported here more than a week ago, might explain part of gold's recent gains. Japanese investors bought about 10 tons of gold bars and coins in January, or double the monthly average from last year, according to the World Gold Council. The Japanese, who have a history of hoarding metals such as platinum and gold, are wary of an end later this year to full government guarantees on Japanese bank deposits.

Black Blade: It could also be a rebalancing of central bank reserves. The Chinese and Russian central banks are reportedly buying Gold in huge quantities for reserves. People around the World also sense that not all is well with the Global Economy and many are buying Gold portfolio insurance. "Interesting Times"

BTW, the US market indices ended lower for the month of January. If the old saw about the "January Effect" holds true, we should see another year of losses on the stock market. This would be the third year in a row - a situation not seen since the Great Depression!
RobotGuy
(02/01/2002; 12:19:26 MDT - Msg ID: 69161)
Gold pushing TSE
TSE is up as a result of very active trading in the gold community, while other markets are having moderate troubles.

SourDough - - thank you for your support in the past. My patience was wearing thin with my investments, but today I am having a very good day. I wish I could make $4000 a day every day.
RS
(02/01/2002; 14:12:00 MDT - Msg ID: 69162)
@ Mr. Gresham
Mr. Gresham quote:
"On Spike Day, no matter how much you're holding, you'll wish you'd bought more."
....................................................

"Spike Day" - I like that!

Interstate
(02/01/2002; 15:14:31 MDT - Msg ID: 69163)
Black Blade

I have been out of town for a few days and these bones may have already arrived on your pile, but Black and Decker is moving all of its plants to Asia (China, etc.). I did not hear how many U.S. bones that will be.

FWIW, my wife is doing a research fellowship at Princeton and according to her and her fellow PhD's, silver, as a natural resource, is more scarce than gold.
Hard assets...Easy access
(02/01/2002; 15:14:48 MDT - Msg ID: 69164)
Gentlemen, Valentine's Day approaches!
http://www.usagold.com/jewelry/gold/buy_18k_index.htmlHere is your time to shine -- to remind her that she remains importantly on your mind and in your heart throughout your long hours away at the office or on the golf course.

To allow for shipping time, act without hesitation. Or call Centennial and ask for Marie. She will give you plenty of helpful guidance.

(click link above)
Tannehill
(02/01/2002; 16:27:26 MDT - Msg ID: 69165)
Spike Day, coming to a theatre near you...
I wonder if it had any thing to do with all those people meeting in New York City?

That's all from Tannehill
RobotGuy
(02/01/2002; 17:38:29 MDT - Msg ID: 69166)
POG
Remember way back in the eighties when gold spiked at $850 an ounce? Hmmmmmm. Sweet dreams everyone.
R Powell
(02/01/2002; 18:03:10 MDT - Msg ID: 69167)
Interstate
Just wrote, "FWIW, my wife is doing a research fellowship at Princeton and according to her and her fellow PhDs, silver, as a natural resourse, is more scare than gold."
Interstate, it may be a FWIW statement to you, but that news sounded like Gabriel's heavenly horn blowing to me. I've been searching for sources of information for years on silver, as a natural resource, as money, as an industrial commodity or anything else one might call it.
Would you please, my fine sir, ask your lovely wife if she would be willing to share information sources? Maybe I can get some well researched estimates of total world supply at some date in the not too distant past from which to form a guess at current supply by subtracting known useage over the years. How much is used (yearly) is a much more reliable and available number to find. Of supply and demand, supply is much harder to figure.
The biggest question in the whole puzzle, it seems to me, is how much silver in deliverable to market form exists today? Can you disclose more information of her work and how it relates to silver? You don't suppose she and her fellows would care to tackle this question? See if they'll disclose any good, unique sources of info for us, internet or old books or mothballed research works hidden in college libraries or other scarcely known works.
Thanks,
Rich
Max Rabbitz
(02/01/2002; 18:10:25 MDT - Msg ID: 69168)
Fleckenstein on Gold Tonight
"My most knowledgeable observer in the gold market, my friend and partner Evan Meyers, noted that gold has been going up much easier lately, even though the market is "long." What he means is this: Gold had a couple of very good days this week, though in the past few years the only time this happened was when the speculators were short gold, and now they're long gold. This is just a further indication of a potential trend change that sort of belabors the obvious, when you look at what the gold stocks have been doing for the last little while. In any case, I thought it might be worth pointing that out."
Gandalf the White
(02/01/2002; 19:01:01 MDT - Msg ID: 69169)
REPOST of BB's "Snippit" -- AND a Question !
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B47236EC1%2D7D0A%2D4F82%2D8232%2D601630268D3B%7D&siteid=mktwBlack Blade (02/01/02; 12:18:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 69160)
Gold gain points to currency risk - 'Strange' buying of metal may be sign of distress

Snip of Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - As the world's economic leaders meet in New York, professionals wonder whether gold's steady price rise this week is the first crack in the global currencies dam. UBS Warburg's precious metals team Friday said, "Gold remains strangely supported despite the strength in the U.S. dollar."
===
AND WHOM was it that said: "the PHYSICAL Gold price and the US$ will go up together!!"
ANOTHER of course !!!
Where are you TG ?
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(02/01/2002; 19:11:14 MDT - Msg ID: 69170)
Mr. G's Question !
Mr Gresham (02/01/02; 11:56:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 69159)
Think
--
And: "Now do I chase it, along the the rest of 'em?"
==
(WE know that you already know the Answer to your Question.)
--
The Hobbits reply to that Question with a Question --
Which can stand the test of FIRE ? (Paper or Physical)
Keep gathering until you have no more paper to spare.
To the Hobbits, PHYSCIAL looks cheap at the present price compared to ANYTHING ELSE.
<;-)
R Powell
(02/01/2002; 19:17:29 MDT - Msg ID: 69171)
Gold lease rates
http://www.lbma.org.uk/2002gofo.htm Clicking on the forum page link gives the rates for year 2001. I've found that just changing the 2001 in the link to 2002 gives us this year's rates starting Jan 1 to the present. Now we can double check whenever Kitco tries to fool us like they did this morning. Who knows, maybe the erroneously high rates posted by Kitco early today helped with todays nice POG gain. Real lease rate numbers, like truth, it's out there.
Rich
R Powell
(02/01/2002; 19:26:22 MDT - Msg ID: 69172)
It's Friday
Happy Weekend to All!
Black Blade
(02/01/2002; 20:01:53 MDT - Msg ID: 69173)
Gold Could Be Whispering Something
http://home.attbi.com/~llewis/marketsummary.html
Snippit:

Asia was lower again last night with the Nikkei falling another 2 percent in Japan. For those that like factoids: the Nikkei is now below the Dow for the first time since 1957. Europe was up a touch this morning, and the US futures were flat ahead of the unemployment data. The unemployment number came in at 5.6 percent, which was a bit better than expectations. Of course, the reason it came in better was because the labor force shrank by around one million people (i.e.- one million people gave up on looking for a new job.) Still, the market didn't seem to like that number, and that's all that really matters. The futures dipped into the red on that news, and Europe began to leak as well.

Oil rose 90 cents. The XOI rose a percent, and the OSX fell a percent. Gold rose almost 4 bucks. Per the COT report released today, as of Tuesday commercials had cut their net short position in gold by 40 percent from the prior week, which is bullish. The HUI rose 5 percent to just shy of a new 52-week high. Gold shares continue to act very well, and are moving well in advance of the metal (which is common during a bull market in gold.) HGMCY was one of the few gold shares to trade down, as it gave back its gains mid-day and ended down a percent after it revealed that it was going to be forced to pay more than expected for the Anglo assets that it was acquiring. The US dollar index fell a touch to reverse yesterday's rally. The yen rallied a full penny, reversing yesterday's decline, on talk of Japanese repatriation.

The gold shares are going bananas and are far outpacing the gains that we are seeing in the metal. I'm not sure what it all means, but the market clearly smells something coming. And I don't think it's a massive economic recovery. It could be related to the war effort and Iraq, but I would think that oil and oil shares would be moving more in that case. It could also simply be misplaced optimism that the economy turning around, but it doesn't appear that way. The moves in these gold shares are not a short-term phenomena. We'll have to wait and see if we get more clues next week, but it could all be pointing to trouble coming for the dollar. Judging by the way the market acts, we could be in for a devaluation of the dollar (something that American manufacturers have been complaining to the White House about quite vocally of late.) We'll have to wait until we get more data in the form of how the dollar, gold, bonds, and equities all trade next week going into the meeting, but something appears to be afoot. Should the dollar be devalued, this would obviously be bullish for gold, bearish for bonds, and (due to the run that equities have already had) bearish for stocks as well.

Black Blade: "Interesting" analysis. Perhaps there are many such discussions at "Davos on the Hudson" this week. Certainly there is a lot of concern over the Global Economy. Concerns about currency weakness and banking problems have helped to push Gold sales higher. Now with Commercials going long on Gold this is quite a bullish change. The Harmony Gold comment is in reference to the increased tax payment of R500 million on the Free States Mines purchase. They had appealed the tax to the SA government, however, it appears that they were unsuccessful. Still, it appears that the purchase will be quite profitable and even more so as the POG rises and the Rand devalues.
Black Blade
(02/01/2002; 20:24:37 MDT - Msg ID: 69174)
Market Wrap Up - Jim Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

Unemployment

There is also statistical discrepancies that could also account for an improving job market. The government no longer counts unemployed workers as being unemployed after their unemployment benefits run out. So theoretically unemployment could improve simply by the way that unemployment is measured. To get a real picture of what is happening in the job market you have to look at the total number of workers claiming benefits at the same time you look at the average of new unemployment claims. So even though the economic numbers have been improving there is still some doubt as to their strength and what they tell us about the future. The best that can be said about the economy is that it isn't getting any worse. To many on Wall Street that is still an improvement.

Bankruptcies

The recent string of bankruptcies is shaking investor confidence. Judging by the amount of debt that corporations took on during the 90's more problems could surface this year. A new report out by the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation disclosed that 2001 was a record year for bankruptcies with 257 public companies going under. That record included five of the largest bankruptcies ever on record. These mounting business failures are presenting a future problem for the nation's banking system.

Accounting Problems

Other stories this week of significance are that analysts and investors are still having problems with company earnings reports. More companies are being forced to come clean on their earnings as Congress and accounting firms begin to take a harder look at how earnings are reported. Credit rating agencies are coming under pressure along with the accountants. In the meantime investor confidence continues to suffer along with the financial markets.

Gold and Silver

A new sector that is showing the strongest influx of money is basic materials and gold. Gold has been showing signs of life with the price of metals rising on Friday by close to $4 an ounce to $286.80. Gold and silver stocks were among last year's strongest sectors. They are showing continued strength this year. This is leading a few analysts to predict that the rise in gold and silver shares is signaling a rise in bullion prices and the beginning of a new bull market for precious metals.

Black Blade: Good analysis. Jim Puplava seems to have a good grasp of the markets. I have to admit that the more I read the more I am impressed with his analysis and "to the point" wrap ups. Much of his commentary is similar to what we discuss here. Worth reading.
sourdough
(02/01/2002; 20:34:53 MDT - Msg ID: 69175)
Right or wrong I got my opinion in the Singapore press
http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/mailbag/0,2309,,00.html?hopefully it will "swirl the swill" and cause any readers to consider the case for Gold!
That little island nation has a free press, my hat tips to them.
Bulldog
(02/01/2002; 20:37:53 MDT - Msg ID: 69176)
recession
In Alberta we don't see much signs of a recession. On the other hand, I represent the working man and none or few of them having any savings. It is very hard to live in a boom province on $50,000 year. Maxing out your credit cards seems to be okay. I believe that the Japanese/Chinese make the next gold market. I have felt for the last couple of years that CHina has the ability to cripple the U.S. They have losts of T Bills and $u.S.

My accountant told me today that this is a good year to take extraordinary income because we will only pay 39% tax. Can you imagine. Include the tax on booze, smokes, gst, real estate and whatever else, we end up with very little disposable income. THank goodness that when we buy PM's
for less than $1000 at a time, there is no report to big brother. Gold made a nice move today. I figure about 10 more of these and the shorts will be closed out.
Waverider
(02/01/2002; 20:45:56 MDT - Msg ID: 69177)
Argentina Thrown into Fresh Chaos
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3NZ0GL6XC&live=true&tagid=IXLT95DZ1BCSnippit:
"Argentina was thrown into fresh chaos on Friday when its supreme court declared emergency financial controls to be unconstitutional, raising the prospect that the country's banks will collapse.

The central bank said it was declaring Monday and Tuesday bank holidays to stop Argentines withdrawing their deposits en masse and toppling the largely foreign-owned banking system. This decision by the supreme court looks very much like the final shot to the heart for Argentine banks," said Alberto Bernal, Latin America economist at IdeaGlobal in New York.

Next week we will have either a new constitutional crisis if the executive branch goes against the judiciary, or a monetary crisis if the central bank decides to give the banks the pesos to satisfy depositors, or a banking crisis if it does not," said Arturo Porzecanki, Latin America economist at ABN-Amro in New York."

Waverider: ...just when it seemed that things couldn't get any worse for Argentina. How do they even begin to negotiate their way out of this mess?
Black Blade
(02/01/2002; 20:48:28 MDT - Msg ID: 69178)
Argentina shelves crisis plan due bank curb ruling
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020201/n019273_4.html
Snippit:

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Argentina's new government put its economic crisis strategy on ice on Friday after a surprise court ruling overturned a bank deposit freeze, sowing confusion and raising fears another bank run could collapse the system.

The government originally planned to announce its economic rescue plan aimed at winning crucial international aid on Saturday. But just as Argentina's crisis appeared to be bottoming out, a Supreme Court ruling ending strict bank curbs plunged the ailing economy into fresh uncertainty.

``This crisis has yet to find a bottom. This is just another example,'' said Siobahn Manning, Latin American debt strategist at Caboto in New York. ``Obviously if you open up the access, all the money is going to come out and it will basically destroy the banking system. So the government's going to have to find a way to overcome the judicial ruling.''

More than $1 billion in deposits left the system in a single day in late November before the restrictions were put in place as investors sought to hedge against an impending devaluation. Economists said the court decision could send Argentines rushing to withdraw their deposits en masse, which they said would destroy many banks already on their knees after the recent devaluation of the peso and sovereign debt default.

Black Blade: Argentine bank collapse is imminent. The best hedge against the banking and currency crisis for Argentines obvious - it is Gold. The Japanese rush to buy Gold (and to a lesser degree Platinum) as portfolio insurance. Argentines are at the mercy of the Argentine government and the IMF. "Interesting Times"
Black Blade
(02/01/2002; 21:39:17 MDT - Msg ID: 69179)
Volatility to be norm for natural gas prices
http://www.denverpost.com/Stories/0%2C1002%2C33%257E372911%2C00.html
Snippit:

Friday, February 01, 2002 - Consumers whipsawed by last year's erratic natural-gas prices should brace for more thrills in coming years. Price volatility may become a yearly routine, with soaring rates in winter followed by lower costs as warmer weather arrives. "We're seeing more extremes in prices," said Dan Blanchard, executive vice president and chief financial officer of Tom Brown Inc., a Denver-based natural gas producer. "I think we'll see higher highs and lower lows."

Black Blade: The economy depends on "Cheap Energy". No energy - no economy. Higher prices drop right to the "bottom line". Natural gas prices have fallen and as a result there is less exploration and production activity. This will result in more volatility in coming months due to increased decline rates and less supply. We are about to experience the whipsaw of volatile prices for years to come.
Waverider
(02/01/2002; 21:51:54 MDT - Msg ID: 69180)
Musings...
~Bulldog: That's not the case in BC as you may have seen on the news. There's a lot of labour unrest here at the moment as the government has just this past week legislated a contract for the teachers. At the same time they unilaterally opened health workers contracts and revised/removed many protective clauses in preparation for more downsizing, restructuring, and hospital closures province-wide. That, on top of their layoff announcements of almost a 1/3 of the public sector a few weeks ago. There have been protests, etc. this past week at a level I don't recall ever seeing in the past.

~Sourdough: Congratulations - that's to be commended. I bet there will be at least one (likely many more), who will read that, buy Gold, and in their hearts thank you for it.

~Black Blade: Interesting to see 2 articles on the same topic written quite differently. Did you really feel you had a week of rest with all the action in the news/markets? I find it tiring just trying to stay current!
Cheers,
Waverider
Black Blade
(02/01/2002; 22:02:51 MDT - Msg ID: 69181)
World Gas Demand to Double by 2030
http://www.slb.com/ba.cfm?baid=1&storyid=469338
Snippit:

LONDON, Feb 1 (Reuters) - World gas demand will double over the next 30 years, helped in particular by growth in gas fired generation, but gas reserves are becoming increasingly remote from major markets, said a report on Friday.

Black Blade: Environmental concerns make clean burning natural gas the fuel of choice. Demand could easily increase much further if Fuel Cell technology becomes economically viable. NG will likely be the hydrocarbon of choice for fuel cells. For the sake of the economy it comes down to "Cheap Energy".
Black Blade
(02/01/2002; 22:08:47 MDT - Msg ID: 69182)
Waverider
There are always differing opinions I suppose. Therefore different takes on the banking crisis. It almost reminds me of the runs on the banks in Russia (1998), possible runs on insolvent banks in Japan, and the stories of bank runs and bank holidays during the Great Depression. We may get a first hand look someday in the US. It really drives home the importance of Gold and Silver portfolio insurance. "Interesting Times" Cheers!

- Black Blade
Waverider
(02/01/2002; 23:19:16 MDT - Msg ID: 69183)
Egypt hopes for a financial bailout
http://www.atimes.com/global-econ/DB01Dj01.htmlSnippit:
"As the Egyptian government prepares for an international donor conference at the Red Sea resort town of Sharm el-Sheikh next Tuesday and Wednesday, local economists and international officials agree that Egypt is in need of a financial bailout. The conference comes at a time when the country's current account deficit is growing and its foreign-currency reserves are dropping amid concerns of poor economic management and the fallout from the September 11 terrorist attacks in the United States.

Egypt is officially on the market for pledges of US$2.5 billion in assistance. According to the minister of state for foreign affairs, Fayza Abu al-Naga, Egypt needs at least that amount to fill the imbalance in the balance of payments. "These sums are required immediately," the minister said."

Waverider: This seems befitting of the recent pattern of financial crisis in the works. Maybe the Egyptian CCSI did croak yesterday.
~BB - I hope (as I'm sure everyone here does) we never see in NA what's happening in Argentina. Yes, it certainly reinforces the wisdom of Gold/Silver portfolio insurance (although I'm one of those with >85% in PM's - physical and shares). But if things get very ugly, I really believe the safest place to be is out on the water. Someone here mentioned earlier this week that "keeping a low profile" is important - excellent advice - no sense inviting attention to oneself in good times, let alone bad. Cheers!
Black Blade
(02/02/2002; 00:04:56 MDT - Msg ID: 69184)
'January barometer' doesn't bode well
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BD425BE0D%2DFD36%2D4C69%2DB699%2D4F379DC017D9%7D&siteid=mktw
Gold funds shoot up 12% as most stock funds tumble

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- As goes January, so goes the investment year, according to believers who follow the "January barometer." If true, prospects for mutual fund investors look pretty dim for 2002.

The theory states that the January performance of the Standard & Poor's 500 index forecasts the direction of the market for the full year -- and it's been correct about 90 percent of the time.

That's not to say that there weren't some bright spots for the month. Gold funds shined, shooting up almost 12 percent as investors flocked to a traditional safe haven.

The group also benefited from strong physical demand for the precious metal during the month, according to Lipper. Gold funds are up more than 33 percent over the last 12 months.

Black Blade: If the theory of the "January Effect holds true, then we will see the first 3 consecutive down years for the markets since the Great Depression. Gold will do well as it is a safe haven, or as Ted David of CNBC says - "a flight to quality".
Black Blade
(02/02/2002; 00:17:54 MDT - Msg ID: 69185)
Not Since 1929 Market Down One Year After Monetary Easing
http://www.comstockfunds.com/index.cfm?act=Newsletter.cfm&CFID=481967&CFTOKEN=22292844&category=Comstock%20Daily%20Comment≠wsletterid=648&menugroup=Home&aol=1
Snippit:

When Greenspan started to cut interest rates with a surprise inter-meeting decision on January 3, 2001, strategists trotted out their numbers showing that the stock market was ALWAYS higher (usually much higher) one year after the Fed began to ease. At Comstock we believed that this time would be an exception since we were coming off one of the biggest financial and economic bubbles in history, and we wrote about it on numerous occasions. Now a year has passed since the second rate cut on January 31, 2001, and what do you know?-the market is down. Over the past 12 months the Nasdaq is down 30%, the S&P 500, 18%, and the Dow, 10%.

We believe that these results are no coincidence. The bubble of 1998 to 2000 bears a resemblance to the period leading up to 1929 in a number of ways that we have written about in past comments. The boom has left the market and the economy with a number of important imbalances that have not been corrected by the slowdown experienced to date, and these imbalances will impede any attempt to recover until they are corrected. The stock market has discounted too much too soon, and remains highly overvalued. In our view the recent rally off the September lows has stalled, and the downside risks are high.

Black Blade: IMO the risks are very high - therefore the New Depression may be upon us. And like the Great Depression Homestake Mining (as a proxy for Gold as it was illegal for private ownership) very strongly outperformed the market. Gold as a hard asset form of portfolio insurance should counter balance the plunging markets. Perhaps we are seeing the beginnings of that now with rising Gold shares, commercial long positions out numbering short positions, unwinding of Gold short positions by competent Gold mining companies, and strong - very strong physical demand. "Interesting Times"
R Powell
(02/02/2002; 07:26:27 MDT - Msg ID: 69186)
Interstate
Message 69167 Please read yesterday's message 69167. I don't want to post the whole again, but don't want you to miss it.
Thanks and Happy Weekend
Rich
Mr Gresham
(02/02/2002; 08:50:57 MDT - Msg ID: 69187)
Bill Gross
http://www.pimco.com/bonds_commentary_investmentoutlook_recent_index.htmLooks like Bill Gross of PIMCO had some fun with this one, on capitalism & crime, Enron, Greenspan, and rolling down the yield curve.
schippi
(02/02/2002; 11:29:26 MDT - Msg ID: 69188)
Gold in First Place
Select Gold (FSAGX) has outperformed all the other 40 Fidelity Sectors, on both a short and long term basis.
It doesn't get any better than this!
Old Yeller
(02/02/2002; 12:31:11 MDT - Msg ID: 69189)
WorldCom's house of cards
http://www.msnbc.com/news/697962.asp?0si=-
More shoes to drop.
Canuck
(02/02/2002; 13:03:20 MDT - Msg ID: 69190)
Just heard on CNN Headline News
Urgent information passed onto President Bush by Colin Powell. Iraq has agreed on weapons inspections but...........only if Arthur Anderson does it!!

Interstate
(02/02/2002; 13:23:23 MDT - Msg ID: 69191)
@Rich Re: msg #69167

I have printed the message for my wife to read when she returns. She is a geophysicist and most of their research is field work. She will be in Cape Town, South Africa for the Indaba 2002 conference. But when she returns, I'm sure she will be more than happy to reply to your questions. I wish I could help, but this is not my field. I am a PM investor, but I go it on my own and do not seek her advice.
Later,
Interstate
Black Blade
(02/02/2002; 14:04:16 MDT - Msg ID: 69192)
SEC Probes Global Crossing Allegations
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-000008236feb02.story?coll=la%2Dheadlines%2Dbusiness
Snippit:

Federal securities regulators are looking into an ex-employee's allegations that Global Crossing Ltd. used misleading accounting techniques to enhance its revenue, according to the company and the ex-employee's attorney.

Officials at the Securities and Exchange Commission apparently started their review this week after news that Roy Olofson, a former finance executive at Global Crossing, warned the company's top attorney about his concerns in a letter in August.

Olofson's Aug. 6 letter, obtained by the Los Angeles Times, noted that he was "very disturbed" by Global Crossing's aggressive accounting methods and urged the company's general counsel, James Gorton, to investigate the matter. He asked Gorton not to involve Cohrs or Olofson's boss, Joseph Perrone, who was the executive from the Andersen accounting firm in charge of Global Crossing's account until he joined the company last year.

Black Blade: D�j� vu!
Black Blade
(02/02/2002; 14:20:33 MDT - Msg ID: 69193)
Argentina 'on brink of anarchy'
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/americas/newsid_1796000/1796699.stm
Argentines are demanding free access to their savings

Snippit:

Protesters have again taken to the streets of Argentina after the president criticised the Supreme Court over a ruling that said limits on cash withdrawals from banks were unconstitutional. The ruling came as the government was putting the finishing touches to its emergency economic rescue plan, due to be announced on Saturday afternoon.

Instead, President Eduardo Duhalde announced the suspension of his rescue plan and said banks would stay closed on Monday and Tuesday to prevent a run on savings. He said Argentina was now on the brink of anarchy, and he warned that millions of Argentines could lose their savings.

There, a crowd grew outside the presidential palace, chanting "out, out, all the politicians out" and "give us our money".

Protesters are demanding free access to their bank accounts and the resignation of the government. The Supreme Court ruled on Friday that banking restrictions limiting people's withdrawals to $800 a month amounted to unconstitutional constraints on the right to private property.

Black Blade: Coming to a country near you! And so it goes - the Ants better keep a low profile as marauding Locusts sweep the land. If only these and other Grasshoppers had prepared - what a shame.
R Powell
(02/02/2002; 14:25:03 MDT - Msg ID: 69194)
Interstate
Thanks, I need all the help I can get.
Rich
Black Blade
(02/02/2002; 14:35:55 MDT - Msg ID: 69195)
Enron was, in layman's terms, a nest of dirtballs
http://www.miami.com/herald/special/features/barry/2002/docs/feb03.htm
Good one from Dave Barry! -

Snippit:

Q. How, exactly, did Enron make money?

A. Nobody knows. This is usually the case with corporations whose names sound like fictional planets from Star Wars. Allegedly, Enron was in the energy business, but when outside investigators finally looked into it, they discovered that the only actual energy source in the entire Enron empire was a partially used can of Sterno in the basement of corporate headquarters. Using a financial technique called ``leveraging,'' Enron executives were able to turn this asset into a gigantic enterprise whose stock was valued at billions of dollars.

Q. What does ``leveraging'' mean?

A. Lying.

Q. Why didn't Wall Street realize that Enron was a fraud?

A. Because Wall Street relies on ``stock analysts.'' These are people who do research on companies and then, no matter what they find, even if the company has burned to the ground, enthusiastically recommend that investors buy the stock. They are just a bunch of cockeyed optimists, those stock analysts. When the Titanic was in its death throes, with the propellers sticking straight up into the air, there was a stock analyst clinging to a railing, asking people around him where he could buy a ticket for the return trip.

Q. So the analysts gave Enron a favorable rating?

A. Oh, yes. Enron stock was rated as ``Can't Miss'' until it became clear that the company was in desperate trouble, at which point analysts lowered the rating to ``Sure Thing.'' Only when Enron went completely under did a few bold analysts demote its stock to the lowest possible Wall Street analyst rating, ``Hot Buy.''

Q. What other stocks are these analysts currently recommending?

A. Mutual of Taliban.

Q. Doesn't Enron have a board of directors whose members are responsible for overseeing the corporation?

A. Yes. They are paid $300,000 a year.

Q. So how could they have allowed this flagrant deception to go on?

A. They are paid $300,000 a year.

Q. But didn't Enron have outside auditors? Why didn't they discover and report these problems?

A. Yes, Enron had one of the most venerable auditing firms in the nation.

Q. What do you mean by ``venerable?''

A. We mean ``stupid.'' As a result, Enron executives were able to deceive the auditors via slick and sophisticated accounting tricks.

AUDITOR: OK, so you're saying you made $600 million in profit.

EXECUTIVE: Correct.

AUDITOR: Can I see it?

EXECUTIVE: Sure! It's right here in my desk! UH-oh! The drawer is stuck!

AUDITOR: Wow! Just like last year!

Q. What should be done to punish the Enron executive dirtballs who, knowing the company was in trouble, cashed in their own stock, and screwed thousands of small investors?

A. In the interest of putting this ordeal behind us, we believe they should receive only a slap on the wrist.

Q. Really?

A. With a hatchet.

Q. Isn't that a pretty severe punishment?

A. Actually, it has been deemed harmless.

Q. By whom?

A. Wall Street analysts.


Black Blade: That about says it all. I have grinded on about "analysts" before. Dave Barry may not know it, but he really nailed it!
Waverider
(02/02/2002; 16:06:54 MDT - Msg ID: 69196)
Sourdough
http://www.feer.com/articles/2002/0202_07/p003letter.htmlI was just perusing the Far Eastern Economic Review website, saw their letter submissions, and thought of you. This is the link (if you're interested)- go to Information on the lower left side, E-mail, and you'll see the E-mail address for letter submissions. Cheers,
Waverider
Mr Gresham
(02/02/2002; 16:10:23 MDT - Msg ID: 69197)
Axis of Evil
http://www.satirewire.com/news/jan02/axis.shtmlLOL
sourdough
(02/02/2002; 17:17:42 MDT - Msg ID: 69198)
Waverider (02/02/02; 16:06:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 69196)
Thanks for the link, hadn`t come across that site before.
85% of their economy is domestic. Nothing like reaping a pile of money to get one spending.
The Japanese people must take it upon themselves to get their domestic economy moving. Being the first to buy a ticket on the gold express could accomplish this. They can move the market, if, they move together. A little more push and away we go.
I do hope ,not only for them, but for our economy (canada), they follow through. Remember the future was looking pretty bright for old B.C., when Asian demand was booming. With our dollar/ratio we would be one of the first to reap any economic rebound in Japan.
If our government had any gold left, I would recommend they take it over to Tokyo and hand it out for free. (of course we might ask for a "small consideration" in access to market and finance at "some future date".
Oh,things looked so prosperous for our little economy when they were rich, lets make them feel rich again.

p.s. how come no one is impressed that Malaysia is working to convert to the GOLD DINAR for international currency? Who`s next? Indonesia, Bahrain,Pakistan,-stan,-stan-stan???????
The Invisible Hand
(02/02/2002; 17:29:40 MDT - Msg ID: 69199)
Enron, the Price of Wales (and the BoE auctions?)
http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/article/0,,9003-2002050191,00.htmlsnippit:
EXECUTIVES at Enron, the collapsed power giant at the centre of the Labour "cash for access" controversy, contributed almost �1m to the Prince of Wales's charity and had three private meetings with him.
The Invisible Hand
(02/02/2002; 17:31:13 MDT - Msg ID: 69200)
Prince and not Price
sorry
Black Blade
(02/02/2002; 21:40:36 MDT - Msg ID: 69201)
Gold and Silver Run Down
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_02/chapman020402.html
Snippit:

Word is that Barrick was long Enron bonds and lost several million dollars, and the IRS is looking at their offshore hedge book. Being good corporate citizens they avoid taxes like the plague. Barrick is in bed with JP Morgan Chase and JP Morgan Chase was a bed partner of Enron. It stands to reason Enron was financing its pyramid via JP Morgan Chase and gold leasing. If this is true with Enron bankrupt who is going to cover the Enron gold short? The natural legal responsibility lies with JP Morgan Chase, but JP Morgan Chase is the vassal of government. Will Morgan pay or will you and I via our corrupted government? This could be the biggest story of our new century and the collapse of Morgan. We may be on the cusp of a major setback for the elitists due to their unbounded greed.

Black Blade: "Interesting" to say the least. This has been similar to my contention. Especially that Enron had PM contracts/derivatives outstanding. And the JPMC problems as outlined in this and John Crudele's article appear to be lining up quite well. Something is afoot. Also interesting take on Silver and Argentina. Where there's smoke - there's fire.
Mr Gresham
(02/02/2002; 21:51:16 MDT - Msg ID: 69202)
Black Blade
That looks like a pretty good pathway toward concealment: offshore "special purpose" entities among Enron's 3000 creations shorting gold and getting reimbursed (and then some) by the printers of unlimited fiat themselves, via JPM "insurance" vehicles or "forward purchases". Gives Greenspan plausible deniability, and keeps the short position mountain from caving in prematurely, and makes it unpayable when it does. Disposable counterparties, Raptors or otherwise. More where that came from?

Hey boyz -- We be close? (Yeah, but a big "So what?" Ya got away widdit!)
Mr Gresham
(02/02/2002; 22:41:53 MDT - Msg ID: 69203)
Stiglitz on World Bank IMF bloodsucking
http://sf.indymedia.org/print.php?id=115110Shocking; positively shocking...
Waverider
(02/02/2002; 23:57:51 MDT - Msg ID: 69204)
Japan: Bad loans held by banks continue to mount
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/getarticle.pl5?nb20020202a1.htmSnippit:
"Nonperforming loans held by Japanese banks totaled 36.8 trillion yen at the end of September, up 3.1 trillion yen from six months earlier, the Financial Services Agency said Friday."

Waverider: Okay - bad loans total 36.8 trillion yen, or 25% of the GDP (IHT, 01/02/02), with government debt at 150% of GDP next year...221 trillion yen! No wonder implosion will make Enron look like a piece of cake.
Bonsoir to All and hey - if you can't sleep, count yen!
Cavan Man
(02/03/2002; 07:22:34 MDT - Msg ID: 69205)
Dear Mr. Gresham
When I read the link you offered and that of Black Blade; when I look closely at current economic, financial and monetary events; I am reminded again that "The Trail" is genuine and that my time has been well spent these last three years. Unlike others, I would welcome the return of "the essayist". Good day sir.
goldenpeace
(02/03/2002; 07:34:32 MDT - Msg ID: 69206)
Krug premium
I note that the K-Rand premium ticked up in Barron's this week from the ever so long-held $3 level to $3.10....little things mean a lot.
Go Patriots!
Bowing
Econoclast
(02/03/2002; 09:18:54 MDT - Msg ID: 69207)
I am sure I'm being brain locked this morning but...
I am having serious problems understanding why Argentines can't get their money out of the banks. Where did it go? I understand the concept of a bank not having the gold and silver reserves on hand when on a metal standard, but if it's just numbers and paper, why can't they have it if its theirs? I understand that creating the paper might cause inflation, but if the deposits are the reserves which get loaned out over and over and multiply in fractional reserve banking, then the deposits should only make up 10% or whatever of the mnoney supply so even printing them all from scratch should not contribute as much to the inflation as the multiplied loans already did.

I'm sure I'm missing something very simple this morning (my brain perhaps?) but can anyone help me out with this?

The obvious fact though, that the president (I don't know about their constitution but it looks like a crisis developing between the judicial and executive) is blatantly choosing to protect foreign owened multinational banking corporations over the Argentine citizens that he is supposed to serve is the best ad for holding gold that I have seen during my lifetime.

Just how did we get our world turned upside-down like this where the "banking system" wields such importance?

I'm rooting for the underdog Patriots! (with all the historical pun implications) Let's lead the Lams to slaughter!

Enjoy!
The Stranger
(02/03/2002; 10:51:55 MDT - Msg ID: 69208)
Econoclast
Most of the money is gone. Argentine banks, like American Banks, are fractional reserve institutions. Deposits are constantly being lent out. When the economy slows down, some borrowers are unable to make payments to the bank. Even in the best of times, no bank can meet the demand of simultaneous, complete withdrawals on the part of all depositors. Ironic as it seems, all fractional reserve hanks, which includes all American banks, are always inherently bankrupt. They survive only because depositors have faith in the system. Once that faith is gone, all banks which are not bailed out will collapse.
slingshot
(02/03/2002; 10:54:26 MDT - Msg ID: 69209)
Econoclast Msg# 69207
Argentine Question.If they gave them their money, it would show what exactly what fractional banking is all about because first they do not have enough paper to give to all of them. At least in demoninations that could be spent at the local market. Second with digital accounts there is nothing to give (physical) to the people. That is when they riot and acquire
furniture and other objects in place of fiat. Sort of like the people foreclosing on the bank. So they do not print more if they don't have to by keeping the banks close or allowing only small withdrawals.
That's the way I see it.

Slingshot
The Stranger
(02/03/2002; 11:15:57 MDT - Msg ID: 69210)
Econoclast
Sorry - I should have read your entire post before responding. I think your idea of simply printing more money to pay off depositors under such dire banking conditions has been tried before on numerous occasions, paricularly in Argentina under Juan and Eva Peron. The problem with that "solution" is that it aggravates the loss of confidence in the currency. People will respond by converting their Pesos into gold or other currencies. Selling Pesos makes them worth even less, causing peso-denominated prices to skyrocket and leading the currency inevitably toward collapse.

I think the only rational treatment for this ailment is to let the patient (the Peso) die and let it happen as soon as possible. Then create a new monetary order, preferably one based on gold, and elect Argentine leaders who will commit themselves to practicing fiscal responsibilty for a change.
Gandalf the White
(02/03/2002; 11:59:30 MDT - Msg ID: 69211)
Just can not help but YELL !!!!!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=CDE,uu[h,a]daoayymy[pb50!b200!d20,2!h.02,.20!c20!i!a][vc60][iUb14!Ua12,26,9!Up14,3,3!Lk14!Ll14!Lo14!Lr14!Lf]Hi Ho SILVER !!
CDE Coeur d'Alene Mines Corporation 1.00 +0.12 +13.64%
Since it is a slow SUPERBOWL day and everyone is cheering for one team or the other, the HOBBITS are cheering for PMs.
Take a look at this chart and see why!!
They hope all unhedged miners and PM PHYSICAL charts look like this one soon. Get ready for Aragorn III's "Thunder in the Night"
<;-)
Waverider
(02/03/2002; 12:38:25 MDT - Msg ID: 69212)
The Rhyme of the Goldbug
A financial take on the Rime of the Ancient Mariner - Samuel Taylor Coleridge's (1772-1834) literary masterpiece.
(Apologies to Coleridge)...

MK, the wisely Goldbug
Stops investors, one in three,
"By thy long-suffering love for Gold,
Why now do you stoppeth me?"

"The market doors are open wide,
I hear the merry din,
The Dow is up, the dollar strong
I'll join the fun within."

But he's held by MK's glittering eye-
The investor just stood still,
He listens like a child of three
For MK has his will.

"The economy prospers by dubious means
As the dot.coms skyward soar,
Pro Forma accounting found a place
And the printing presses roar."

"The dollar's here, the dollar's there,
The dollar's all around,
It grew and grew to monstrous size
Like oceans in a swound."

"At length did cross an Albatross,
Through financial fog it came
With Wings of Gold it flew so bold,
To be hailed in Truth's name."

"But investors faltered and in their greed
For the great American dollar,
They connived and did a hellish thing
Which makes your face to pallor."

"In collusion and lies the Gold Cartel
The market line did cross...
And by manipulation and derivatives trade
Slay the Golden Albatross."

"The Majestic Bird with Wings of Gold
On the economy was hung,
A heavy price to pay for vice
And wicked songs so merrily sung."

"The markets swoon, the Dow goes under
The fiat starts to burn,
The debt implodes, employment folds
The New Depression takes its turn."

"But not all is lost, for here today
Is a lesson to impart,
Hold steady now and listen clear
With honest mind and heart."

"He sleeps the best, who invests the best
In proven value from days of old,
Learn from history and wisely men -
Call CPM and buy some Gold."

He went like one that had been stunned,
Foolish market hopes forlorn,
But a wiser and a happier man
He woke the morrow morn.

Waverider
Mr Gresham
(02/03/2002; 12:51:24 MDT - Msg ID: 69213)
Waverider
You are really something! Bravo! Well done!
Black Blade
(02/03/2002; 12:54:20 MDT - Msg ID: 69214)
JANUARY EFFECT VS. AFC VS. NFC
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020203/business_column_stocks_week_dc_1.html
Snippit:

Charles Reinhard, senior U.S. investment strategist at Lehman Brothers, in New York, said he is sticking by his 2002 forecast of a 20 percent gain in the S&P 500.

``No, we are not going to change out forecast as a result. Last year, the opposite happened. Besides, we won't change our forecast until we see what happens with the Super Bowl'' this Sunday, he joked, referring to another of the Street's non-financial forecasting tools. ``It just so happens that the turn (in the economy) is happening now, and that is a way more important variable'' than using January's stock numbers as a forecasting tool.

As for the annual football mega-event -- investors will be rooting for the St. Louis Rams this weekend in the Super Bowl. That's because the Super Bowl Stock Market Predictor, which is tracked by Prudential's Bob Stovall, says that a victory by a team with roots in the original National Football League points to a rising stock market for the year. Maybe it is just a coincidence but the predictor has been right 80 percent of the time and Wall Street, battered by two straight down years, needs all the help it can get.

Hank Herrmann, chief investment officer, Waddell & Reed, with $35 billion in assets under management, joked, ``a more reliable indicator is the Super Bowl indicator, so we will know more about the outcome of the year after Sunday.But he is not heading to the bunker after January's loss.

``It is a coincidence. Periodically, it works. I am not much for the bizarre indicators. Years ago they had the hemline indicator,'' Herrmann said, referring to Wall Street lore that called for rising stock prices as the length on women's skirts decreased.


Black Blade: The hemline indicator is my favorite, however, now we have another reson to cheer for a particular team in the Super Bowl.
R Powell
(02/03/2002; 13:23:01 MDT - Msg ID: 69215)
Black Blade
Yes! Go Pats!
slingshot
(02/03/2002; 13:29:31 MDT - Msg ID: 69216)
Waverider
You're Good, Real Good.
A pleasure to read.
Slingshot
R Powell
(02/03/2002; 13:41:50 MDT - Msg ID: 69217)
Econoclast
An interesting development of the collapse of the Weimar Republic in the early 1920's was that by printing more money and paper with higher denominations, they devalued the paper so much and so fast that there was actually a lack of currency. The price of tangible objects (necessities like food and fuel) rose so fast that they could not be bought. The government even tried printing on one side only of the paper money to get it in circulation faster, with larger numbers on every new printing.
The government itself was broke as tax rates could not be raised fast enough. By the time tax money was collected, it had lost so much value as to not be worth enough to even cover the cost of its collecting. All this time, the French were demanding WW1 reparation payments which could not be made so the French seized German territory (the Ruhr). Those on any kind of fixed income pension starved or resorted to plunder to survive.
These are thought from having just read "When Money Dies" by Adam Furgesson which tells the tale. It also explains the social and political conditions that brought Hitler to power.
Hey Waverider- Great poem!
Happy Superbowl Weekend
Rich
Econoclast
(02/03/2002; 14:15:57 MDT - Msg ID: 69218)
Thanks for the responses
I really believe there are simply too many balls in the air for the clowns to keep juggling succesfully.
After the Super Bowl comes the Super Bull!
sourdough
(02/03/2002; 16:31:53 MDT - Msg ID: 69219)
In the land of the rising sun
February 4, 2002
Japan's weak-yen strategy looks set to backfire

Analysts see vicious circle leading to further foreigner asset sell-off

By
Anthony Rowley
In Tokyo



JAPAN'S policy of allowing the yen to weaken against the dollar and other major currencies as part of its deflation-fighting strategy could be about to produce a dangerous backlash in the shape of an accelerating foreign sell-off of Japanese financial assets in general.

Some analysts fear this could result in a self-feeding process whereby sales of Japanese stocks and bonds lead to an even weaker yen, and then to further assets sales.

Ominous signs of a sell-off began to appear even before Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi fired foreign minister Makiko Tanaka last week, sending his own popularity plunging and adding 'political risk' to financial risks that investors in Japanese assets are facing.





This week could be critical in determining whether a triple sell-off of the yen, Japanese government bonds and Tokyo stocks gathers pace or abates. Last Friday saw the yen swing in volatile manner between three-year lows of 133 and 135 to the dollar, highlighting the extreme uncertainty in foreign exchange markets over how much lower Japan and the US are prepared to see the yen fall. The Nikkei 225 stock average, meanwhile, fell to a four-month low of 9,791.43 while the yield on the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) moved nearer to a critical 1.5 per cent level.

Foreign selling has been a major factor behind the recent sharp decline in all three markets, but there is mounting evidence that Japanese domestic investors too are losing confidence in paper assets. Short-term bank deposits are rising rapidly and the World Gold Council revealed last Friday that Japanese investors bought around 10 tonnes of gold bars and coins in January - almost double the monthly average of 5.4 tonnes for 2001.

Bearish forces are bearing on both stock and bond markets at present, and a rapidly weakening yen appears to be scaring foreign investors who face the threat of exchange rate losses in addition to risks of stock and bond prices falling in yen terms too. 'Low share prices, the yen's fall, the government's fading popularity, a likelihood of a downgrade to Japan's debt rating - all these things are putting pressure on JGBs,' said one Tokyo dealer.

The principal area of concern is the JGB market where foreign investors sold a record net 900.5 billion yen of Japanese bonds in the third week of January, nearly double the level in the previous week. Some of this was arbitrage-related as foreign investors sold cash bonds and bought futures (meaning that net outflows from the JGB market were smaller than indicated by the bald figures). Nevertheless, increased sales of JGBs by foreign investors are occurring at a very sensitive time.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year JGB has risen by a full 10 basis points since Dec 28. In Tokyo, it recently hit a high of 1.465 per cent - its highest level since April last year.

While the yield is still modest by international standards, its relatively low level in the past few years has allowed the government to service a huge burden of outstanding debt without undue difficulty. With that debt now standing at around 660 trillion yen (S$9 trillion) or 140 per cent of GDP, national debt service accounts for slightly more than 20 per cent of budget expenditures.

Any rise in bond yields which reflects an investor loss of confidence in the JGB market would be serious. And lately, officials have stepped up efforts to reassure investors, especially in the light of successive downgrading of Japan's sovereign debt ratings by international rating agencies.

Moody's Investor Services said last week that a fresh review of Japan's sovereign rating was possible.

The Tokyo stock market is also vulnerable with the benchmark Nikkei average falling below the level of the New York Dow Jones Average for the first time in 45 years.

Although foreign holdings vary, there were heavy net sales of Japanese equities by foreign investors in three of the last four months of 2001, and especially heavy disposals of nearly 380 billion yen in December. January saw some initial recovery but this had given way to net sales again by mid-month.

In an effort to shore up the market, legislation has been pushed through to establish a fund that will buy part of the large volume of equities being sold by Japan's banks. Ironically, this erodes even further the value of stocks they include in their capital base.

Banks also have to mark to market their equity holdings as from the end of the accounting year on March 31 and are eager to dispose of stocks before then. So selling pressure on stock prices looks set

Ray Patten
(02/03/2002; 17:26:39 MDT - Msg ID: 69220)
Friday's Gold rally was more bullish than previous rallies!
I have been waiting for a rally like this for months. Previous rallies about this size had volumes over 50,000 contracts. Friday's volume was estimated at 35,000 contracts. That means to me that the shorts may finally be running out of amo. In previous rallies, the shorts were prepared to take on all commers, so it took a large volume of comtracts to overcome their selling. On Friday, about half the volume moved the market an equal distance, so the sell orders were not there. When the bears and bulls are buying together, it should be a sight to behold!!
Black Blade
(02/03/2002; 18:08:04 MDT - Msg ID: 69221)
NFC vs. AFC Super Bowl Indicator

At the end of the first half - Pats 14 and Rams 3! Looks like a "Grim" forecast for the first half of the year as far as the markets are concerned. No economic recovery until the second half at least! Still I see no higher hemlines (damn!). Good game so far. Time for another six pack of Negra Modelo. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Canuck
(02/03/2002; 18:15:35 MDT - Msg ID: 69222)
@ BB
The replays of wide-outs are the best! Slow-mo of the sidelines!
Canuck
(02/03/2002; 18:19:20 MDT - Msg ID: 69223)
Kenny-Boy bailing out
Heard about an hour ago that Kenneth Lay is bailing out of Congressional testimony tomorrow; lawyers believe he 'will not get a fair hearing'.

CNN Headline News.
slingshot
(02/03/2002; 18:35:46 MDT - Msg ID: 69224)
Super Bowl
Rumor has it that the Plunge Protection Team just sent in some plays for the Rams.

Its not over till its over!

Go Pats.
Slingshot
Black Blade
(02/03/2002; 18:45:42 MDT - Msg ID: 69225)
Gates Sees No Economic Recovery in 2002
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020203/business_forum_tech_microsoft_economy_dc_1.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT) Chairman Bill Gates said on Sunday that he sees no global economic recovery this year, countering a budding groundswell of optimism tied to economic data pointing to a fast rebound.

Black Blade: I guess he's watching the game too.


Canuck - Lay could be right. Why would anyone want to enter a snake pit? After all US Congressmen are just a bunch of crooked opportunists. He or anyone elde couldn't expect a fair hearing.
Siochain
(02/03/2002; 18:48:03 MDT - Msg ID: 69226)
Bill Gates on world economy -no recovery this year
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20020203/bs/forum_tech_microsoft_economy_dc_1.html(Partial)Sunday February 3 4:06 PM ET
Gates Sees No Economic Recovery in 2002
By Eric Auchard

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq:MSFT - news) Chairman Bill Gates (news - web sites) said on Sunday that he sees no global economic recovery this year, countering a budding groundswell of optimism tied to economic data pointing to a fast rebound.

Gates, co-founder of the world's largest software supplier, said that corporate capital spending cuts and a glut of excess capacity in hard-hit sectors such as telecommunications may keep the economy moving sideways through the rest of 2002.

``I don't see any big uptick in this year. Japan certainly won't be, and the U.S. won't be,'' Gates told an audience of editors and reporters attending the five-day World Economic Forum (news - web sites) summit of political and business leaders in New York.

On a positive note, he said: ``Europe may be a little more positive,'' referring to a rebound in its overall economy.

Gates' remarks contrasted with optimistic views voiced by many delegates here this weekend.

The Conference Board (news - web sites) argued in a recent report that the U.S. economy would lead the world economy out of recession later this year, and its gross domestic product grow 4 percent in 2003.

At the World Economic Forum, some economists have argued that Europe was making steady progress toward recovery, but could not lead the world out of recession by itself. Japan's economy may get worse before it gets better, many experts have argued.

Rick Belluzzo, president and chief operating officer of Microsoft, told Reuters in an interview that Gates' comments were referring not simply to the high-tech sector, but to what Microsoft was seeing across the economy in general.

Siochain
(02/03/2002; 18:51:05 MDT - Msg ID: 69227)
@ Black Blade
Sorry for duplication...you are fast on pick up!! Interesting that CEO's such as Gates & new honcho of GE and a few others all say same thing....not this year,,,,big difference from the CNBC hype
Mr Gresham
(02/03/2002; 18:58:09 MDT - Msg ID: 69228)
Japantina?
http://www.iht.com/articles/46597.html"...biggest economic and financial crisis in any major economy since the 1930s."

If Argentina is the template for a banking meltdown, and Japan has the real meat (quantity) for a crisis, and Japan has been blocking for USA all these years, then what is the timeline for the dominoes to fall?

I wonder if China is second-guessing their gold accumulation rate now? They have been handed a one-up position in Asia perhaps sooner than they expected? (I'm always amazed when I read how much UST paper they continue to hold -- a two-edged weapon?)
Black Blade
(02/03/2002; 18:59:35 MDT - Msg ID: 69229)
Argentina to Float Peso Against Dollar
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/020203/argentina_5.html
Argentine Government to Float Peso Against Dollar Amid Major Reforms

Snippit:

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP) -- The government on Sunday rolled out an ambitious plan to rescue the devastated economy, partially easing a maligned banking freeze while announcing plans to freely float the peso later this week.

Economy Minister Jorge Remes Lenicov on Sunday declared he would present a 2002 ``austerity'' budget to Congress in coming days and exhorted Argentines to accept more sacrifice as he seeks to end a bitter, four-year recession.

``Argentina is broke,'' Remes Lenicov said at a news conference Sunday and rolled out the wide-ranging plan of President Eduardo Duhalde to ease the crisis that toppled the last elected leader in December.

Black Blade: Pity the poor Argentine Grasshoppers that did not prepare for this. Now that the economic blizzards are descending upon them. Only the Argentine Ants will pull out of this one unscathed. Going to get ugly.
Black Blade
(02/03/2002; 19:04:33 MDT - Msg ID: 69230)
Anti-Drug Commercial

I just saw a commercial that suggests that Americans who use drugs finance terrorism. Funny thing is that is was the Osama construction business that financed the WTC attacks. Maybe we should make the construction business illegal based on that kind of logic. Geez! What a bunch of idiots in the DEA! No wonder the US Government has no credibility.
Black Blade
(02/03/2002; 19:15:57 MDT - Msg ID: 69231)
Nikkei Sinks
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?uThe Nillei falls below 9700 tonight as the issue of insolvent banks and a meat packing scandal jits the markets. Hey, even they might be watching the game tonight.
silvester
(02/03/2002; 19:37:06 MDT - Msg ID: 69232)
First Post
To lurk implies one sneaks around without being noticed. I don't like the word. I've been a regular here for at least 3 years. I'm no lurker, no way, I am a full time user and believer. I have thought for years our financial system was broke. What I've seen with my eyes is not what main stream media says it is. Thanks to this site and all the fine folks who visit, I can now read the sign. This golden trail is going places and yes I can follow those big tracks.
Black Blade
(02/03/2002; 19:38:11 MDT - Msg ID: 69233)
How Much Oil is Left?
http://hubbert.mines.edu/Matt Simmons article at Hubbert Peak newsletter discusses how many Giants are left, how much oil, how Many Exist, how Much Do They Produce, and How Fast are They Declining?
THX-1138
(02/03/2002; 19:58:58 MDT - Msg ID: 69234)
Sunday Paper advertisement deception
Hello everyone.
I haven't posted much in a long, long while but what I found in my Sunday Newspaper prompted me to write.

In the Sunday Oklahoman there is a full two page advertisement.
It says BUYING COINS, Instant Cash for All, and 3 Days Only.
Someone wants to purchase all types gold and silver US Coins.
Seems they want to get mostly the 1964 and older silver coins and any pre-1933 gold coins.

The add gives six reasons for selling coins. The ones that I find deceptive are the following:

1.) Important Economic Information. Due to America's record breaking economic expansion, many collectible prices are the highest they have been in 15 years. But with the economy headed toward difficult times, we believe prices could fall dramatically in the coming months. We all know that in an economic slowdown, cash will be king. Which is why this may be the best time in many years to sell...before prices drop.

2.) Inflation. In the past, gold and silver coins, and other valuable items were generally safe investments. Recently, however, they have not appreciated as rapidly as inflation.

3.) Estate Planning. Put as much cash as possible into your estate. Cash is easier to divide among your heirs. It creates fewer problems and less animosity in the settlement of your estate.

4.) Cash in Hand. Our buyer will pay you in cash on the spot. They don't ask you, as some others do, to give them your valuables on consignment. There is no waiting. No wondering what you will receive. And no checks to deposit in the bank.

5.) Security. Trade high insurance premiums and the fear of being robbed for the security of cash.


---------------

Fear of being robbed for silver and gold coins? What about cash? I have heard people being killed for as little as a $5 bill.

Why put all the money into an estate if you are planning on dying? And why isn't it easy to divide up a coin collection between your heirs? One coin for you, one for me, one for you, one for me. Flip for the last coin if there isn't enough to equally go around or give it to charity.

Gold and silver collectible prices are not the highest in 15 years. And how could values fall if the spot price of gold and silver are going up or remaining stable?

The inflation part is total bunk due to the supression by the government, and when it goes away the prices will far outrun inflation.

Well, that's my rant for the evening. I'll go back to lurking for now, as I continue to read the wonderful commentary that is posted here.
THX-1138
(02/03/2002; 20:04:42 MDT - Msg ID: 69235)
YEEEEHAAAAWWWWW!!!!
Patriots win the Super Bowl with one second left on the clock.
Awsome field goal.
Black Blade
(02/03/2002; 20:05:01 MDT - Msg ID: 69236)
No Recovery This Year
Pats 20 and Rams 17! The Super Bowl Indicator says NO ECONOMIC RECOVERY this year. Better load up on Gold and Silver. Cheers!

- Black Blade
slingshot
(02/03/2002; 20:21:29 MDT - Msg ID: 69237)
Pats WIN!
Patriots send St. LOUIS packing.
What a game!

Yogi Berra, Where are you? Its Over.

Load up on the Gold.

Was that Madden who wanted to play safe and go into overtime?

Congradulations, Patriot Fans. Great Team Effort.
Slingshot
darkhorse
(02/03/2002; 20:27:57 MDT - Msg ID: 69238)
BB...the "anti-drug commercials"
Those commercials came across with WAY too much of a propanganda tone to them! I noticed it within the first few seconds of the first one, and I really didn't care for the follow-ups. To the younger crowd, which they were obviously pandering to, it probably doesn't seem like much but to us older, "out-of-touch-with-reality" types, I can't help but think somebody like Goebbel was behind it! Yeah, it's a pretty strong statement, but don't EVEN try and tell me somebody hasn't upped the ante on the general public's psyche since 11 Sep. I'm gonna be labeled a "conspiracy therorist" here if I keep this up, but the truth is the truth!
darkhorse
(02/03/2002; 20:29:53 MDT - Msg ID: 69239)
BTW..
I'm real glad to see there's so many football fans here on this site...it restores my faith in the human race! (big smile!)
Chris Powell
(02/03/2002; 20:34:20 MDT - Msg ID: 69240)
Patriots win! God help us....
.... Bill Murphy is going to be INSUFFERABLE now!

But it gives hope to underdogs everywhere. The
gold cartel is next.
Bulldog
(02/03/2002; 20:36:57 MDT - Msg ID: 69241)
Push for Canada to adopt U.S.$ Not!
It was a very good S.B. Just saw Canada's national news station spending 15 minutes discussing Canada adopting the $U.S. Does anyone think before they talk anymore? No one mentions that the $U.S. is way overvalued. That country has over 5 Trillion of debt which is owed to most of the civilized world. Canada's currency like most is only weak against the U.S.$.
The U.S. should volunteer a devaluation of its dollar at the G7 meetings this week.
Finally, all these Canadian pundits who want us to purchase U.S. fiat, why not gold. The Canadian gov't got us here in the first place by selling most of our gold reserves. I would rather see us buy gold and see what that does to the value of our currency.
Quite a spectacle that Superbowl. Bring on the Olympics for our adoration of more "patriots".
Black Blade
(02/03/2002; 20:39:46 MDT - Msg ID: 69242)
RE: darkhorse
darkhorse,

The politicians will peddle that nonsense while standing atop the corpses of those who died in the attacks espousing patriotism while pursuing their nefarious goals. The drug war is a farce and a welfare program for law enforcement personnel who couldn't qualify for or get a real job and most thinking bipedal hominids know it. Cheers!

BTW, too bad that Victor Kiam isn't around to see the Pats win the "Big Game".

- Black Blade
Artie Farkle
(02/03/2002; 21:08:46 MDT - Msg ID: 69243)
To all: Payment in gold
I was wondering If there was a good argument that one might pitch to an employer in an attempt to receive payment in gold?

I thought of the following:
1. The employer buys US Gold Eagle coins for payment.
2. The employer records payment (to employee) at face value of the coins.
3. The employer only pays withholding taxes on the face value.
4. The employer deducts the expenditure for the coins as an expense.
5. The employee only pays taxes on the face value of the coins.

I know this is to simple and good to be legal.
Would someone explain why this will not work?
Is there a good pitch for payment in gold?
Thanks : )
darkhorse
(02/03/2002; 21:14:38 MDT - Msg ID: 69244)
another BTW...
has anybody else noticed that the crash of flight 257 (I think that's right...the one that went down on LI last fall) has gotten VERY little attention? Was it really a maintenance problem, or have we (the American public) made it too easy for TPTB to hide other facts? (There's not too many people around that can handle a succession of events like we saw last fall, even if they don't have anyone close involved...it's beyond the capabilities of the average American, anyway.)
Old Yeller
(02/03/2002; 21:26:22 MDT - Msg ID: 69245)
Bulldog

You are not alone'sometimes I think this is what the Chretien/Martin standoff is really all about.

Very slick campaign is underway,using all the time-honored PR and corporate communications strategies.It is up to people such as ourselves to inform as many Canadians as we can about what we percieve to be happening.The mainstream media is of no help whatsoever,in fact,they can be counted as our most powerful foe.
Old Yeller
(02/03/2002; 21:36:06 MDT - Msg ID: 69246)
Maintaining the illusion
http://www.traders-talk.com/site/featured1.asp
Houston,we have a problem with the P/E of the S&P.

Don't worry,we'll get our pals to fix it for us.

Voila,the market is now fairly valued.Please resume trading.
Mr Gresham
(02/03/2002; 21:42:13 MDT - Msg ID: 69247)
darkhorse
Right on. The propaganda blizzard was heavy tonight. Promoting our "way of life" in all its glories. Our household sees about 3 TV commercials a month on average, so we're pretty un-numbed to them. My stomach was turning, to my slight surprise. What crap. What betrayal. What a shabby empire. I guess I've moved pretty far away from the "mainstream" and gotten used to good, thoughtful company.
Waverider
(02/03/2002; 21:51:34 MDT - Msg ID: 69248)
Dow tops Nikkei in latest sign of Japanese economic decline
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/getarticle.pl5?nb20020204a1.htmSnippit:
"The year was 1957. Russia launched Sputnik, Dwight D. Eisenhower was in the White House, Elvis swiveled his hips in "Jailhouse Rock" and the Dow and the Nikkei were at level pegging.

Fast forward to today. After following Sputnik into orbit, the Nikkei has crashed back to earth, closing below the Dow for the first time in more than 44 years. The indexes touched briefly last Sept. 12, when the Nikkei plummeted after the previous day's terror attacks on the U.S.

Discerning what the convergence of the Dow and Nikkei means is difficult. The Dow and the Nikkei are very different measures. The Dow is a weighted index of companies based on points; the Nikkei is priced in yen. This much is clear: The Nikkei's drop below the Dow for the first time since the mid 1950s crystallizes Japan's economic rise and fall."
Black Blade
(02/03/2002; 22:07:46 MDT - Msg ID: 69249)
Old Yeller
Good article. As I have said before - based on historical valuations and the dismal outlook the S&P 500 should be at about 425. The earnings per share of the DOW has slipped some and should be valued at about 4,000 t0 4500, while the NASDAQ at about 750. Give it time. Meanwhile, a defensive posture is recommended and a portion in Gold and Silver as portfolio insurance. Cheers!

- Black Blade
ROSEBUD99
(02/03/2002; 22:09:52 MDT - Msg ID: 69250)
RE:Artie Farkle
That sounds good, and a great way to lower personal taxes, but I think the IRS would say that the market value of the coins are what you were paid. Maybe you could get the difference in face to market value classifyed as a gift or bonus. I don't know if that would help any. If you find out different, let me know. P.S. of cource we can be like enron, as long as the IRS doesn't know, its not illegal. ;)
Artie Farkle
(02/03/2002; 23:21:35 MDT - Msg ID: 69251)
ROSEBUDD99
Thank you for your input. : )
Black Blade
(02/04/2002; 01:30:16 MDT - Msg ID: 69252)
Newmont CEO Sees Gold at $350 in 2-3 Years
http://www.futuresource.com/news/news.asp?story=i4224269738253353024
Snippit:

He said that the combined company will maintain its current yearly production of 8 million ounces until gold prices improve. "As long as gold prices stay at these levels, we're happy just maintaining production and improving the quality of the assets we have," Murdy said."But if we saw a sustainable level of $300 to $350 (an ounce), then we would start looking at new projects." "We see in the next two or three years, a good case for the price of gold to go to $350," Murdy said.

Black Blade: Of course recent dramatic increases in Gold demand and recent action in Gold mining shares suggest that $350 might be upon us much sooner.

Black Blade
(02/04/2002; 02:04:26 MDT - Msg ID: 69253)
World Gold Council Siezing Golden Opportunity In Japan
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/020204/15/2f2ej.html
Snippit:

TOKYO (Dow Jones)--The Japanese are quickly running out of safe places to stash their hard earned yen. Stock prices have slumped to levels not seen in almost two decades, several money-management funds have sunk below par value due to their exposure to Enron Corp. (ENE) and this April the government will pull the plug on its blanket guarantee for bank deposits in the event of a bank failure.

Recognizing a golden opportunity when they see one, the World Gold Council has launched an all-out media blitz to convince the Japanese that gold could be the prudent alternative to simply stuffing more money under their futons - and these efforts are starting to pay off.

"In recent months the Japanese have been showing tremendous interest in gold as an investment vehicle," said Itsuo Toshima, Japan's regional director for the World Gold Council. "I don't think we have seen this level of interest since the heyday of Japan's bubble economy in the late 1980s."

Black Blade: As it should be. Now maybe they should also encourage Gold sales in Argentina as well. Of course the WGC might be telling the Japanese to buy Gold trinkets, and jewelry.
Black Blade
(02/04/2002; 02:28:38 MDT - Msg ID: 69254)
Gold dinar viability depends on level of acceptance
http://globalarchive.ft.com/globalarchive/article.html?id=020204001830&query=gold
Snippit:

THE viability of the proposed single Islamic currency, the Islamic Gold dinar (IGD), hinges on the number of nations which are willing to accept it as a medium of exchange.

Economists said with greater number of countries recognising it as legal tender, the IGD will have a more far-reaching effect.

"It is a vision which Islamic states should work towards. However, the market will await more details on this," said Suresh Kumar, an emerging markets analyst at Standard & Poor's MMS International in Singapore.

The proposed currency is based on dinar and dirham denominations, which are tied to the value of gold and silver in the open market. e-dinar Ltd, an Internet-based Labuan-incorporated company promoting the use of a single Islamic currency, is tapping Malaysia as a site for minting the Islamic gold dinar. The Islamic dinar, with a specific 22k gold weight equivalent to 4.25gm, was first minted in 1992 by Prof Umar Ibrahim Vadillo. He is the founder of e-dinar and the president of World Islamic Mint.

The Islamic dinar has been used initially by the Murabitun World Wide Movement, a Muslim organisation promoting Islamic dinar and dirham, and has since gained huge popularity in Europe, South Africa, and the UAE, where it has also been minted.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Dr Mahathir Mohamad first expressed interest in universal currency that could help unite Muslim countries after attending the OIC summit in Doha, Qatar in November 2000.


Black Blade: The Europeans now have the Euro and it took a couple of years to phase in. The Muslim world could have the Gold dinar and Silver dirham up and running immediately as it has its own intrinsic value. No need for reserves either - how about that! I don't think acceptability will be much of a problem.
Black Blade
(02/04/2002; 03:05:17 MDT - Msg ID: 69255)
Former Enron chairman Kenneth Lay Pulls Out of Scheduled Congressional Testimony
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/020204/enron_investigation_1.htmlFormer Enron Chief Refuses to Testify



Snippit:

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Amid evidence of possible illegal activity at Enron, former chairman Kenneth Lay joined a growing list of executives who are backing away from testifying to Congress about the energy company's complicated financial deals and spectacular collapse.

Lay canceled his planned appearance Monday on Capitol Hill after several senators and House members suggested on Sunday news shows that he and other company executives engaged in criminal acts.

``Ken Lay obviously had to know that this was a giant pyramid scheme -- a giant shell game,'' Sen. Peter Fitzgerald, R-Ill., said on NBC's ``Today.'' Rep. Billy Tauzin, R-La., who chairs the House energy committee, asked whether ``maybe somebody ought to
go to the pokey for this.''

After the Enron chairman announced he wouldn't testify, Fitzgerald said: ``Mr. Lay is again taking a dive. ... Mr. Lay is the captain of the ship, and he needs to explain why his ship has sunk.''

Lay ``cannot be expected to participate in a proceeding in which conclusions have been reached before Mr. Lay has been given an opportunity to be heard,'' his attorney, Earl Silbert, said in letters to the Senate and House panels that were to hear from him. ``These inflammatory statements show that ... the tenor of the hearing will be prosecutorial,'' Silbert said.


Black Blade: Maybe they should look into other companies that used the services of Arthur Andersen too. First we see the demise of Enron, then Global Crossing and Kmart. There may be several more mega-bankruptcies coming to light over the next several months. "Interesting Times"
Black Blade
(02/04/2002; 03:21:51 MDT - Msg ID: 69256)
Gold Fields Q2 earnings triple on weak rand
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020204/l04231021_1.html
Snippit:

JOHANNESBURG, Feb 4 (Reuters) - South Africa's Gold Fields Ltd, the country's second-largest gold producer, said on Monday its earnings tripled in the second quarter on the back of a weaker local currency and higher gold production. Net earnings rose to 640 million rand ($67 million at Gold Fields' conversion), or 139 cents a share, in the three months to December 31 -- from 203 million rand, or 45 cents a share, in the first quarter.

The company declared an interim dividend of 90 cents a share -- in line with its policy of paying out half its earnings. ``It is indeed pleasing to report a threefold increase in earnings for the December quarter...Much but not all of the increase can be attributed to the decline in the value of the rand,'' Gold Fields Chairman and Chief Executive Chris Thompson said in a statement.

Black Blade: Another Non-Hedger Gold miner increases earnings. There is no need for Gold miners to short Gold if they have competent management and economically viable operations. These results should be good news for TG. Rising mining share prices tend to precede a run on physical Gold prices. We have seen tremendous gains in mining shares. Could Gold be far behind?
Belgian
(02/04/2002; 03:39:36 MDT - Msg ID: 69257)
A - VERY - VERY - STRONG MESSAGE ON CNBC-Europ Today !!!
From guest analyst (forgot his name) Dexia Bank (Belgian/France-parastatal):

GOLD HAS BEEN AND STILL IS *MANIPULATED* ! GOLD WILL OUTPERFORM FOR YEARS TO COME !

It was "categorically" explained in the briefiest of words
*WHY* Gold was/is contained. This same analyst (Dexia) wasn't impressed at all, by the embarassed attitude of the CNBC intervieuwer. He (the intervieuwer) was literally reading (answering) that CBs HAVE BEEN SELLING GOLD AND WILL CONTINUE TO SELL ! (?)

My poor English isn't able to describe all the profound nuances that were contained in this etherical message.

But it was one of the STRONGEST public messages, I witnessed as evidence for Another's theory. And it was NOT some stupid blahblah addition to the present POG strength.

The ENE effect might be responsible this for sudden outburst of shizofrenic reporting ? FOA's *rain* is coming closer !!! Sir Kosares, increase your Gold stock for the inevitable run on the precious.

POG in euros (331 �) has given the most beautifull Technical Interpretation (TA) signal to confirm the most promessing fundamentals.

In friendship and with respectfull gratitude to A & A and CPM as well. Thank You Sirs !
Knallgold
(02/04/2002; 04:10:54 MDT - Msg ID: 69258)
New Golden message,Belgian:New Gold propaganda?
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7BA4F88F72%2DE04E%2D4A3E%2D968C%2D893B7149FB09%7DRead also the above link "..Prices for physical gold have been doing "very well," over the past month ..."some people are putting money where the performance is... But he pointed out that even an expected turnaround in the economy can be good for gold. ..

The latter sounds like Another $ and Gold can rise together (economy rebounding but with a high cost of inflation?).

To play the devils advocate here:sell Goldstocks now,the game won't change so when positive reports dominate its time to play the contrarian again.

No,the game won't change,but 350$/oz is still possible within that and seems to be anticipated by the shares.350-360,400(?) which is the death point for the paper Gold market!Default,New Physical Goldmarket etc.Coincidence?

Besides that,did anyone notice that all stories currently in the propaganda media are centering around the US?Full focus on all their bad practises,I don't get the impression much is censored in the Enwrong scandal.So will the GoldSCANDAL get increased media light (thanks GATA for starting this)

THE MARKET MUST DIE ON ITS OWN (FOA)!Why now not help a little bit with full media coverage of the farce,force it to happen at the already fixed time frame?(successfull)Euro conversion ends end of month.Insiders are ready now,the upward Goldmanipulation can start.

Yes,I am a bit excited,especially with the knowledge to be fully and rightly positioned :-)

Some are people telling me "hey,you are hearing the grass grow!" (the physical green? hehe),my response "and,does it not grow ???"

Black Blade
(02/04/2002; 04:24:29 MDT - Msg ID: 69259)
AngloGold hedge cuts support gold, silver inert
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020204/l04270344_1.html
Snippit:

LONDON, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Gold was generally supported in Europe on Monday morning, amid news of hedge cuts by major producer AngloGold Limited .

The company plans to reduce its gold hedgebook by six million ounces to 10 million in the next 12 months, and this was bolstering bullion prices up, despite a strengthening dollar.

``The general perception in the market is that hedge selling is drawing to a close,'' one trader said. ``I think it is potentially more bullish for the gold,'' another trader said.

Black Blade: AngloGold has no choice. Other producers have stopped shorting Gold and it is either stop shorting or acquire other producers in order to feed the hedge book. I think it's a race against time. Maybe soon Barrick will be the only Gold short left. The days of the Hedge Fund Miner are numbered.
TownCrier
(02/04/2002; 04:46:31 MDT - Msg ID: 69260)
A handsome chart for January in this week's WGC update
http://www.usagold.com/wgc.htmlGold shows solid upward movement in US$, Yen, Swiss Francs, and Euros for 2002 year-to-date (i.e., January).
uponroof
(02/04/2002; 06:48:11 MDT - Msg ID: 69261)
Goldbugs, Forum Members, sector
http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=TABLE☆tfrom=recentGreetings 'goldbugs'

Funny, I never really considered myself a 'goldbug'. Rather a wise investor with a solid PM 'position' on at ALL times. Regardless, I have been visiting a board at 'Raging Bull' entitled 'Briguy's Dollar and Sense Table' (see link above). To them I am a 'goldbug', and the lone one there.

The folks at this board are very world 'current affairs' and equity market savvy. They share wisdom regarding equity market trades and help each other in the decision making process which we all encounter through investing. Much like our forum.

Recently their interest has increased concerning gold. Not enormously, but enough to perhaps confirm the start of a broad market sentiment change. I believe they offer a microsm of all active market players and the rising curiosity towards gold.

I have been posting on the merits of gold there for a few months (irregularly) for a couple of reasons...one, to share the wealth of knowledge gained right here, and two, to get an indication of any change in underlying equity market perception.

My friends, I believe the tide is now turning. Interest in gold at the site is growing, meager perhaps but growing. Yesterday a member of semiconductor board (CY) stopped in to the 'Table' to rave about Japan and the implications it poses for gold. This fellow to my knowledge is not gold market or gold forum familiar, just realizing a profitable opportunity. Today another of the members asked for an explaination of the 'gold cartel'. Are we starting to see a general awareness of gold which has not been present for decades? Perhaps.

I believe this sort of interest could be manifesting, or lying just under the surface, at investment chat rooms all over the net. Like any self perpetuating phenomenom the more publicity it gets, the greater the interest. Thanks to reports like the CBSMarketwatch piece on Friday the buzz increases.

Thus, I am now asking you to spend a little time, visiting other investment forums, sharing what you know about PM's. I believe there is a growing appetite out there which has the potential to move this tiny market well out of anyone's control...and we all can play a part.

*********************************************************
sector- I have a request of you. The member I referred to, requesting gold cartel information, also asked if I was an insider, in his words "in the thick of things". I am not and have told him so. However, I also told him I converse with folks who are 'insiders' on a regular basis. I count you as one since you helped contribute to the Howe lawsuit.

I am hoping you can visit the TABLE board and post some thoughts and links on cartel evidence. MK, Miner 49er, BB, Pizz, et al who are 'involved' in the gold industry and considered 'insiders'...feel free to visit and share your thoughts please. I'm sure they would appreciate any help offered. From one table to another let the thoughts flow.
**********************************************************

I have posted the USAGold link at the TABLE forum....expect visitors. Meanwhile, why not all of us making ourselves available to other forums, steering them here through building trust. I'm not talking about touting or hypeing...just being honest. I'd love to hear what other investment boards are thinking these days regarding gold.

Congrats Pats! What a game!...
Belgian
(02/04/2002; 07:18:11 MDT - Msg ID: 69262)
@ KnallGold
Gold is living a life of its own, whatever economic circumstances will be ! M. Fr�re and F. Verplaetse, two Belgian National Bank presidents (and former BIS) are prudently confirming (via entourage) that The Goldtrail (map) is *INDEED* a matter of Political Will, gathering critical mass. But Belgium is only a spit on the map and more confirmation from (your country) Switzerland and Germany would be welcomed.

POG-zone 350$ is not only a T.I. (TA) critical point but it might signal the start/change of the Fundamental(s).
Insignificant for the present (and future johnny come lately) holders and accumulators of the Physical refined, but probably very important for the mine-gamblers !?
Goldmine shareholders will cash their paper profits and leave Physical Gold alone. Their biggest mistake after 20 years of sidelining and preparation for the ultimate re-valuation and brand new concept for Physical Gold.
These goldmine paper profits will never get the chance to flow into Physical in Possession !
This was the most difficult part of the Goldtrail (for me) to swallow ! But so was the dot.bomb mania too !

This morning CNBC-Europ comments also mentioned straithforward and icecold with cool conviction that Debt and confetti creation is beyond all imagination possible !

Note that it is not the present "nice" goldprice that is the reason for my studentical happiness...but the mounting evidence (though subtle) of the freely provided treasure island map, *exclusively*
here provided.

Have a look at the chart provided by Towncrier : euro/SwF-POG versus $/Yen-POG. Do you see the difference ? The subtle engineering of a US$ collapsing under its own weight.
And the consequent *FATAL* printing to death, process.
BB's article on the golden dinar/dirham, is evidence from another angle (thanks BB).
More on the "use" of the Swiss 1 tonne per day "Physical" would be a welcome enlightment. It certainly is part of the *needed* perception that ...CBs do keep selling Gold (CNBC's defense) !
Central Bankers are NOT stupido's ! Regards .
sector
(02/04/2002; 08:56:46 MDT - Msg ID: 69263)
@uponroof The Gold Cabal Information Mine
http://www.goldensextant.comThere's a biggie coming...pretty soon.

It's in the peer review stage now.

As far as evidence goes, the best collection is the Howe filing itself.

Note particularly the taking of two private corporation board seats [BIS] by Greenspan. Adam Hamilton [link at the above url] has posted a .pdg copy of the authorization letter from Warren Christopher SECSTATE for Clinton.

Problem is...how does the Exccutive Branch arrogate to itself powers not granted to it by the Constitution?[Holding a private board seat, in addition, is a flat conflict of interest since the BIS benefits from interest rate decisions made by AG]

JCTex
(02/04/2002; 09:02:24 MDT - Msg ID: 69264)
Saudi/Euro ties
http://www.memri.orgBelow is a snippit from Dispatch #336 on the MidEastMediaResearch site.

This looks like it could come straight out of the Another/FOA playbook regarding the pricing of oil in EuroCurrency.

I will apologize, now, if this has already been posted; I have been out of town and unable to monitor usagold.

Snippit:
Replace U.S. With Europe

"Perhaps Saudi Arabia will start relying on Europe more than on the U.S. for partnership in economic and strategic interests. Perhaps America will accept this situation if it realizes that linking Saudi interests to Europe will not directly harm its own interests. If America decides that its main interests are linked to Israel at this stage, then it would be natural for Saudi Arabia to seek another partner to serve its interests."


"This partner... who would replace America and be able to enter into a strong relationship of mutual interests [with Saudi Arabia]... is Europe. America will find it difficult to oppose the strengthening of interest-based ties between Europe and Saudi Arabia. Countries with different interests may go their separate ways, without necessarily becoming enemies."


"In truth, Europe today is an important part of the [mutual] interests of the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. In the event that this scenario comes to pass, what will change is that Europe will replace America as Saudi Arabia's first strategic ally... and, in the new framework of Saudi-Western relations, America will take second place."(2)


(1)Subheadings added by the translator.

(2)Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), January 15, 2002.

USAGOLD Market Commentary
(02/04/2002; 09:05:20 MDT - Msg ID: 69265)
Gold Surge Unusual for Monday. . . .All New Short & Sweet. . . Lots of Good StuffNEWS & VIEWS Update!
Available online to all clientele and prospective clientele, NEWS & VIEWS Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has again been updated.

Read the full commentary and related information here. (access codes required)

New visitors may review these selected portions provided at the Daily Market Report page. You may enjoy our 24-Hour NewsWire provided at this page, also.

If you would like to take full advantage of these insights and perspectives, made available from a leader with three decades of experience in the precious metals markets, then we invite you to request your personal access codes for the online News & Views. With your request, you will also receive a hard-copy introductory information packet on gold ownership which details the products and services offered by USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Gold up $1.80. . . .our INO ticker is down??

USAGOLD
(02/04/2002; 09:19:08 MDT - Msg ID: 69266)
If you are having trouble with the News & Views page, time to get it fixed! Invitation Extended to New Visitors Interested in Gold.!
Since gold has begun to show some signs of life, we have handled a surge of inquiries on how to get into our on-line newsletter -- News & Views, usually updated Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Not everyone realizes that this is for both our regular clientele and new prospective clientele.

To gain access you must be registered. The "user" name is you last name and the "password" is your e-mail address, but in order for it to work you must be registered on the server. Go to the FREE Information Packet link above. Some of you are already registered, but we are discovering that many ignore the e-mail from us confirming your registration and then forget how to get in later on.

If you've changed your e-mail address and we don't know it, you need to either get with Jill to change your registration or try your old address in the "password" box.

The system is case sensitive so you need to match our registration. The first letter of all last names (user names) has been capitalized.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

If you are having trouble, call or e-mail Jill.

jill@usagold.com

800-869-5115
-----------------------------------------------------------------


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We invite all to participate and get the REAL news on gold in one easy to read, bullet format -- we try to get the report down to what's essential for the busy professional or business person. People have greatly enjoyed our Short & Sweet format for over a decade and come to rely on it for what's really happening in the gold market. If you haven't tried out our on line newsletter, we invite you to join the fun by registering. Details at the USAGOLD post below.
sector
(02/04/2002; 09:36:31 MDT - Msg ID: 69267)
CFTC and "Prevention of price spikes"
RISK NEWS
CFTC reorganises to improve energy derivatives oversight

4 February - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) plans to restructure to allow more effective implementation of the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 that deregulated US futures and derivatives markets.
Speaking earlier last week in front of the US Senate Committee on Energy, CFTC chairman, James Newsome, said Enron's on-exchange activities had been regularly monitored by CFTC staff, and that "at this time, we have no indication that manipulation of any futures market was attempted by Enron".

Newsome claimed the ability of CFTC staff, working alongside those at the Nymex clearing house, to monitor the situation and adjust margins to prevent price spikes as Enron-related positions were unwound, was evidence that the CFTC's existing powers are adequate.

The CFTC oversees exchange-traded energy derivatives trading in the US. Under the reorganisation, three new divisions will take on the role currently fulfilled by the divisions of trading and markets and economic analysis.

Speaking last Friday, Newsome said: "Given the significant modernisation effort of futures regulation initiated by our commission and by the Congress with the passage of the Commodities Futures Modernization Act, we believed an analysis of the existing staff structure was in order."

The division of market oversight will be responsible for regulatory oversight of trade execution facilities, market surveillance, rule enforcement and amendment reviews. The division of clearing and intermediary oversight will oversee the activities of clearing houses and brokers, and the office of the chief economist will be responsible for providing expert economic advice, policy analysis, economic research, education and training to the commission.
Naomi Humphries and Navroz Patel
+++++++++++++++++++++
There we have it folks...the CFTC works to prevent price spikes...not valleys...not "volatility" but only..."price spikes".

This time they will be steamrolled by people who want to secure their wealth with physical gold and silver. The 900 pound gorrilla of gold is actually sitting at the dinner table...even though CNBC keeps denying it.

The Japanese will lead the way as their uninsured savings of $35,000 for each family is transferred to gold. Recall that if only 17% of japanese families [25 million] do this ($175,000,000,000), it will represent a draw of 19,000 tonnes. Don't think the Treasury has THAT kind of metal....nor the Deutsche Bank...nor even the Swiss.

What the off shore members [Including the Japanese government] of the cabal DO have is greed and self preservation...they will desert JPM and GS...at the most unexpected time. Leaving O'Neill, Rubin and Greenspan... twisting in the wind.

The new MoTU will get the whole sordid mess wrapped up in ribbons.

It gets worse for the cabal...many other things will happen when pog rises...things that the massive banks don't ever want to see. Like interest rate volatility.

It isn't just about gold...it's about everything...absolutly everything.
Knallgold
(02/04/2002; 10:11:32 MDT - Msg ID: 69268)
@Belgian @CPM
Interesting informations from Belgium.

As to the Swiss Gold sale,when I asked my bank for the possibility of converting my "3.column pension money" into physical instead of a confettifund,the answer was NO.Not allowed by law.So much for the serious/safe preparation for our retirement.

As you said,the first (brainwash) argument of the banker was "CB are selling,particularly the Swiss" and the ususal stuff'storage costs,better returns on other investment blablabla.I tried to give him some facts (BOE "performance" on its sale/investment,who is BUYING ,China,Russia,Austria.)

What he disturbed him a bit was when I mentioned the Europeans wanted higher Goldprices and might introduce a "floating Goldstandard" via free physical trade in a new market (China's already a fact).He asked if I had a hot source...

Maybe I will ask Dr. Jean-Pierre Roth directly,the new SNB pres.,where OUR Gold exactly goes.I think he had the Golddossier from the beginning in his hands.I fear he won't tell me...

Or I can ask Michael first for a possible sign if the Gold from the SNB appears really in the markets.Let me explain:

A politician (one I didn't notice before) had the opportunity to make a visit in the Goldvault.He confirmed in the TV news the Gold is there,particularly(no %-age given) invested in Goldcoins,mainly Goldvrenelies.

Whats interesting now: not only in the common 20Fr and 10Fr which are widespread and not easy to track.The politician said the SNB owns also a stash of 100 Fr Vrenelies.These are very rare coins(5000 pieces),made only in 1925.

To my knowledge they are very closely held by collectors,are rather large (1ounce?) and sell for 6000-9000sFr. It would be possible to notice any sudden appearances of them in the market.Any comments/reports?
(I don't own any and don't want to promote them)

Knallgold
(02/04/2002; 11:09:20 MDT - Msg ID: 69269)
SNB
http://www.snb.ch/d/snb/index.html , Publikationen: Referate 10. Dezember 1999As a little candy,the SNB still mentions Gold first in the list of reserves.

"..Der Nationalbank obliegt die Anlage der W�hrungsreserven (Gold, Devisen, internationale Zahlungsmittel)..."

And they confirm on their webpage that the WA is supported by the Fed and the BOJ

"..und zus�tzlich vom amerikanischen FED und der japanischen Zentralbank unterst�tzt wird.."

Old Yeller
(02/04/2002; 11:15:27 MDT - Msg ID: 69270)
Argentina and the IMF
http://www.thebanker.com/featureframe1.html
From the banker.com'soon to be the nervousbanker.com?
Waverider
(02/04/2002; 11:25:32 MDT - Msg ID: 69271)
Anyone want to own up?
Someone's loading up on DROOY today - maybe Bill Gates?
Dollar Bill
(02/04/2002; 11:28:42 MDT - Msg ID: 69272)
A Doug Nolan excerpt
A link was considered, but with your permission...

"And extracted from the International Economic Report to The President, February 1974:

"Adjustment and convertibility have been crucial issues since the onset of the monetary reform discussions. The Japanese and those European countries which have been running payments surpluses stressed the need for more certain and prompt convertibility of foreign currency holdings to primary reserve assets. These countries feel that a revised monetary system should eliminate what they consider to be the privilege of the United States and other reserve currency countries to finance deficits by increasing their liabilities."

In stark contrast to today, there was in the 1970s some recognition that increasingly destabilizing global speculative "capital" flows were directly related to the heightened borrowings of deficit countries. From Anne O. Krueger's analysis The 1974 Report of the President's Council of Economic Advisors: International Issues (The American Economic Review, September 1974): "Yet, in fact, speculative capital flows and world inflationary pressures were both partly the consequence of huge prior accumulation of dollar assets by foreigners, particularly in 1971. That accumulation, in turn, had its origins in the overvaluation of the dollar and the other features of fixed exchange rates under the dollar standard...throughout the Report, world inflationary pressures of 1973 are treated as if they were completely independent of past American behavior."

Just as contemporary money is predominantly created through the lending process, it is today critical to appreciate that it has been continued enormous international borrowings by (predominantly the U.S.) deficit nations that have created the massive global pool of too-often quite mobile, speculative, and destabilizing liquidity. There is a common misconception that an institution such as Fannie Mae simply intermediates between savers and borrowers. It is much more accurate to understand that they are directly involved in monetary expansion as they issue debt/create liabilities. There is a similar misconception that the U.S. borrows "capital" � or the savings � of our trading partners. I think it is much more accurate to view the deficit finance process as the creation of additional U.S. liabilities that circulate globally, and not the relinquishment of foreign "savings." It is not global "capital" rushing to invest in the productive economy, but U.S. deficits creating global liquidity that today conveniently finds its way right back into U.S. markets. The same unlimited capacity to create money and Credit domestically operates internationally as well, with the GSEs, in particular, fabricating the global liquidity that fuels potentially unlimited demand for their own debt instruments. Interestingly, this key concept of the unstable nature of global finance was recognized during the 1970s. Geoffrey Bell has an extensive discussion of "multiple credit creation" in his 1973 book The Euro-dollar Market. He also had adept insight into the key role played by financial innovation � particularly the fledgling but booming euro-dollar market � in the increasingly destabilizing financial flows that were imparting heighten risk on the global financial system and economy at that time.

"It is too early to ascribe any definitive reasons for the breakdown in the Bretton Woods system and to weight these with any real feeling of confidence. However, three factors stand out: the steadily deteriorating balance-of-payments position of the United States; the reluctance of governments to alter exchange rates up or down�and the pressure on exchange rates and domestic monetary conditions through capital movements with the euro-dollar market playing the decisive role in this respect. In the absence of a smoothly functioning mechanism for correcting balance-of-payments imbalances, especially between the United States and the rest of the world, the chances were that an impasse would have been reached at some stage, the inevitable outcome being a widespread currency crisis."

I am confident that financial historians will look back at this period in utter amazement. How could the trillions of dollars of open-interest in euro-dollar futures, the unfathomable growth in the global "swaps market" and other derivatives, the explosion of foreign holdings of agency and U.S. securities, and escalating dollar asset and liability imbalances on the books of the international banking/brokerage community not have been heeded as a glaring warning of inevitable crisis? There is simply no doubt that unparalleled financial "innovation" has played an instrumental role in fostering runaway Credit and speculative excess domestically in the U.S., as well as internationally as required to finance massive and unrelenting U.S. borrowings. Unfortunately, we today see no indication that these excesses are being tempered. Indeed, all signs point to full speed ahead into a world of unknown risk and guaranteed tumult. I for some time presumed that when the global community began to better appreciate the nature of the U.S. Credit Bubble a market response would set in motion the necessary adjustment. I am today forced to assume that the "global community" and the GSE/Wall Street "structured finance" contingent are tightly interlinked, with the market mechanism a casualty of Experiment on Top of Experiment run terribly amuck. This, most regrettably, has gone much beyond a precarious domestic Credit scheme and a foray into inconvertible currencies.

I will conclude with a Chairman Greenspan quote for the history books:

"I've been worried about the trade deficit for many years. It's a problem which should be creating more difficulty with respect to our international financial position, but it hasn't. And the reason it hasn't is that the investment capabilities of institutions within the United States � companies � has attracted a sufficiently large amount of capital, investment capital from abroad to maintain the financing year after year after year. I assume at some point it has to come to a halt. But I've been saying that for a number of years, and I'm impressed with the attractiveness of American investment opportunities. It seems endless." January 24th, 2002

Is Dr. Greenspan referring to true investment opportunities or interest rate speculations? If his reference is to enterprises generating true economic profits, we are left to ponder how annual foreign investment sufficient to offset $430 billion plus current account deficits are maintained in an environment with faltering business earnings. But if in "opportunities" he includes financial "profits," yes, at times, they do indeed appear "endless." This certainly is one seductive Bubble
Black Blade
(02/04/2002; 12:13:11 MDT - Msg ID: 69273)
$8 billion in Tyco deals not disclosed
http://www.msnbc.com/news/699330.asp
Firm reveals more than 700 acquisitions it hadn't made public

Snippit:

Feb. 4 - Tyco International Ltd. said it spent about $8 billion in its past three fiscal years on more than 700 acquisitions that were never announced to the public. THE REVELATION raises new questions about the completeness of financial disclosures by the conglomerate, which has come under close investor scrutiny in recent weeks for its complex accounting practices.

Black Blade: Like Enron - "off the books partnerships". This looks like another scandal waiting to break loose. Tyco stock is down over $5.00/share today (so far). Maybe TYC is the "next shoe to drop" as they are considered a "mini-General Electric". Where does Arthur Andersen fit in here? Hmmm� "Interesting Times"
Black Blade
(02/04/2002; 12:19:50 MDT - Msg ID: 69274)
Correction
I see that Tyco shares are now down $15.44/share. GE is following down as well.

BTW, I see that my Non-hedged Gold and Silver shares have blasted off some more and even though I am well diversified in the stock market, I am positive today even as the market indices are in the toilet. Add in my physical PMs and I am even better situated.

- Black Blade (One Happy Ant)
Black Blade
(02/04/2002; 12:31:37 MDT - Msg ID: 69275)
Global Crossing Tossed More Cash Around Town Than Enron
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/02_06/c3769068.htm
Snippit:

Global Crossing, founded in 1997 by Gary Winnick, a former junk-bond salesman and associate of Michael Milken, contributed $2.9 million to candidates and political parties during the 2000 election, up from just $34,000 in 1998, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics (CRP). That made Global Crossing, based in Beverly Hills and Bermuda, the fifth-highest donor among communications companies--ahead of WorldCom and BellSouth. Global even topped Enron's $2.4 million in such donations for 2000. "They came out of nowhere and papered the town with money," says Larry Makinson, executive director of CRP.

Black Blade: Yep, just as the Democrats are trying to pin the Enron debacle on the Bush administration, the Republicans are painting the Global Crossing brush on Democrat Chairman Terry McCauliffe and access to the former Clinton administration. This is both sad and funny at the same time. And where are the "Keystone Cops" also known as the SEC?
Black Blade
(02/04/2002; 12:44:38 MDT - Msg ID: 69276)
Elan stock nosedives after 2002 revenue warning
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020204/l0470575_3.html
Snippit:

The company also said that ``in light of current market concerns relating to off-balance sheet arrangements'' it was providing information about two ``qualified special purpose entities'', or QSPEs, which it said were not consolidated in its final results as presented under U.S. accounting principles. The company said the inclusion of the two QSPEs would have had a negative effect on its balance sheet. Elan said the company ``has guaranteed the indebtedness of these entities to the extent that the value of the investments held by the QSPEs are insufficient to repay the indebtedness of these entities''.

Black Blade: Another scandal breaking as Elan shares are off 50%. Apparently these "off the book" deals were booked as income when they weren't. Another scandal of the week - or is day now.

BTW, the uncorrect the TYC correction. Shares are down about $5.00/share. A glitch maybe?
Black Blade
(02/04/2002; 12:51:05 MDT - Msg ID: 69277)
Rohm and Haas Cuts 1,860 Jobs
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20020204/bs/earns_rohm_and_haas_1.html
Snippit:

PHILADELPHIA (AP) - Rohm and Haas Co. said Monday it will cut up to 1,860 jobs, 500 more than the specialty chemicals manufacturer announced in April.

Black Blade: More nonessential "Bones" are sent off to the growing "Bone Pile".
Siochain
(02/04/2002; 13:39:36 MDT - Msg ID: 69278)
@ uponroof
Your point is excellent....I have been posting to RB Boards such as QQQ and NVDA re PMs (under Gouldmag...or MAGS for short (I'm a woman)....though if things keep moving I'll change to goldmag)....have gotten a number of people asking for further info.

Now is the time for those who have been following gold to perhaps help out others while there is an opportunity....JMO

PS...I see you're from Phila area...as am I...Bucks County
darkhorse
(02/04/2002; 13:58:04 MDT - Msg ID: 69279)
Siochain
I used to live in lower Bucks Co...Bensalem/Trevose area! Been a long time ago, and it really wasn't the best place to live.
Black Blade
(02/04/2002; 14:01:30 MDT - Msg ID: 69280)
soichin, uponroof, and darkhorse

OK, I admit it, many years ago I lived in Allentown, PA for about three years. The humidy was brutal. But I liked the area.

- Black Blade
USAGOLD
(02/04/2002; 14:04:46 MDT - Msg ID: 69281)
Jensen. . . .Second installment from the MidEast
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Jensen/index.html Here's the second installment of the Jensen series on the MidEast. This time he tells the Palestinian side of the story. (Includes photos)
Siochain
(02/04/2002; 14:07:16 MDT - Msg ID: 69282)
@darkhorse
I live in Middle Bucks...in Northampton area....the only bad thing is that we are being overwhelmed by new developments ,,,high end....some pretty hefty mortgages are adding to US debt here.....plus so much of the beautiful open land & winding roads thru woods is disappearing
Siochain
(02/04/2002; 14:14:00 MDT - Msg ID: 69283)
(No Subject)
@Black BladeArea around Allentown is changing too....& not for the better...as more expensive homes come into Bucks...younger couples who want a nice home & some land are moving in and around Allentown ...apparently moving North is the new impetus...you were just ahead of your time & a lot further North now.

Watch out though ...my brother has a ski place in Vermont & thinks that area is getting too crowded...maybe Canada next
Hard assets...Easy access
(02/04/2002; 14:21:38 MDT - Msg ID: 69284)
Gentlemen, Valentine's Day approaches! (Feb. 14th)
http://www.usagold.com/jewelry/gold/buy_18k_index.htmlHere is your time to shine -- to remind her that she remains importantly on your mind and in your heart throughout your long hours away at the office (or on the golf course).

To allow for shipping time, act without hesitation. Call Centennial and ask for Marie. She will give you plenty of helpful guidance.

(click link above)
Old Yeller
(02/04/2002; 14:25:07 MDT - Msg ID: 69285)
Spin cycle;guns and butter are good for the economy
http://www.sierratimes.com/02/02/04/money.htm
Someone's not doing their homework.Wonder what LBJ would say about this assessment?
Black Blade
(02/04/2002; 14:35:48 MDT - Msg ID: 69286)
siochain
Sorry about miss-spelling your name/handle. I guess the old saying is "You can never return home" applies. Actually I lived most of my life in the western US. I now live in North central Wyoming. Good hunting, fishing and close to great skiing here and in Utah and Colorado. So far relatively "undiscovered". Cheers!

- Black Blade
TownCrier
(02/04/2002; 14:36:28 MDT - Msg ID: 69287)
The picture of some hard lessons in investing
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^IXIC&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=my&l=off&z=m&q=lNasdaq sheds another 3% today.

What have the participants learned, and will it influence their decisions going forward?

(Click URL for graph)
Waverider
(02/04/2002; 14:36:50 MDT - Msg ID: 69288)
Buenos Aires calls in the dollars
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT316YFPAXC&live=true&tagid=ZZZ60A9VA0C⊂heading=americasSnippit:
"Argentina's government on Monday moved to make good its promise to eradicate the use of the dollar, ordering banks to hand over their dollars in reserve in return for devalued pesos.

It also defied a Supreme Court ruling that overturned limits imposed two months ago on bank withdrawals to halt a run on deposits, setting the scene for a serious constitutional crisis.

President Eduardo Duhalde issued a decree banning all lawsuits against the bank controls for six months, an order that itself appears unconstitutional. But in a process that could take a month or more, congress is already moving to impeach the supreme court.

"We'll know in the next week whether the plan will work or not," said Carlos Curi, an Argentine economist. "We'll know the reaction of the public, we'll know the reaction of the supreme court, and we'll have some reaction from the multilateral organisations."
slingshot
(02/04/2002; 14:52:24 MDT - Msg ID: 69289)
(No Subject)
Today I made an appearance downtown
I am an expert witness, because I say I am.
And I said, Gentlemen...and I use that word loosely....
I will testify for you.
I'm a gun for hire, I'm a saint, I'm a liar
Because there are no facts,there is no truth
JUST DATA TO BE MANIPULATED.
I can get you any result you like.
What's it worth to ya?
Because there is no wrong, there is no right.
And I sleep very well at night.
No shame, no solution
No remorse, no retribution.
Just people selling t-shirts
Just opportunity to participate in the pathetic little circus
And winning, winning, winning.

From "The Garden of Allah" by Don Henly


Would this be an accurate picture of Corporate America?

Slingshot
Siochain
(02/04/2002; 15:10:31 MDT - Msg ID: 69290)
Accounting rules
Lately, with all the news re accounting practices, I am frequently reminded of the "joke" (or so I thought at the time) told by my first Accounting Prof.

A CEO of an up and coming company went to his Lawyer for advice on how to take his Company public.

He was told that before he broached seeking an offering he should do a few things first...primarily to get a top accounting firm as his auditor.

Next day, the CEO called his lawyer & said OK I got XYZ Accountants, what next?

The Lawyer was amazed that the man selected the Accounting firm so fast and asked how he decided.

"Simple", said the CEO. "I called in five of the top firms and asked one question....How much is two and two?"

He went on to say that four of them looked at him funny and answered four...but execs from one Auditor...paused...looked at him...And then asked in return

"How much do you want it to be?"

"They're the ones I hired" said the CEO
Waverider
(02/04/2002; 16:07:26 MDT - Msg ID: 69291)
Slingshot
Right you are! Corporate America will soon find out that there is always moral retribution - the Albatross soars freely in each of us but it's we that kill it and place it around our own necks (I imagine K.Lay's neck is feeling *pretty* strained at the moment). Thanks for sharing that. Cheers,
Waverider
Black Blade
(02/04/2002; 16:23:50 MDT - Msg ID: 69292)
Gold Setting Up For Push Over $300.00/oz.
http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
Currently spot Gold holds at $291.60 setting up for a breakout over $300.00/oz. This should follow as more fears of "Enronitis" spreads throughout the market. It seems that this earnings season has been dismal and accounting practices have lead to one scandal after another (just as I have been alluding to for the last year or two). Add to this that even at these levels the stock indices are grossly overvalued. Far overvalued compared to the historical averages. Investors are scared - and rightfully so as they see their retirements vaporize into the ether of derivative exposure and Pro Forma lies. For an "interesting" view of the Enron scandal - check out the House Subcommittee Hearing on the Enron Scandal. An Enron director is giving testimony now. Quite revealing! Tragically this will be repeated many times over, and therefore many will be led to Gold and Silver - some unwillingly at first - but to a safe haven nonetheless. Hang on for the ride.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(02/04/2002; 17:02:29 MDT - Msg ID: 69293)
JP Morgan Chase Next to Fall?

The "Pump and Prime" talking heads on CNBC in a discussion on Enronitis - JP Morgan Chase was just mentioned as "most troublesome due to off the books transactions" and "derivative exposure". Meanwhile Gold is moving higher by $2.00/oz. tonight. There is a lot of tension in the air tonight.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(02/04/2002; 17:11:04 MDT - Msg ID: 69294)
Enronitis Exposed!

William Powers, head of the Enron board of directors is laying out a blistering testimony and laying the blame of the Enron scandal right at the feet of Enron management. There is no whitewash or dancing about the issue here. This is hot stuff. Even SEC chairman Pitt laid into the bogus accounting standards referring to them as "gamesmanship". The testimony is cutting away the secrecy of derivatives, lack of oversight, and bogus accounting by AA. They also allude to other companies doing the same. This is hot stuff! Tomorrow will be testimony from the CEO of Arthur Andersen. This is definitely likely to rip a big hole in the stock markets tomorrow!

- Black Blade
slingshot
(02/04/2002; 17:47:24 MDT - Msg ID: 69295)
Gold and the $300.00 Glass Ceiling
Gold at $291.+ can be a two edge sword for some of us.
Yes, I do like to see my insurance coverage increase but at the same time my acquisition window closes. I am close to my third GOAL for GOLD and hope to succede. From my point of veiw I have done well. Even if it is not as big as others.
It should shield me from some unfortunate circumstances. That is my message to other Goldbugs. One ounce at a time.
What I call the "Blender Effect" should come into play.
That is when so much stuff is happening at the same time at a fast pace and Joe Sixpack yells out," What DA?...". As we approach the $300.00 ceiling some exit planning would be prudent. Time to think what this Forum will be like when Gold hits $400.00/$500.00/$600.00 per oz. Positive Thinking?
You betcha. They have put 10 pounds of stuff in a 1 pound bag. Something has to give. Is this investment advise? NO, it was the right thing for me to do. If you feel the same way, you can still do it also. Gold is dirt cheap.
Along the Trail have some fun. To fellow Goldbugs lurking about, a post of your thoughts would be nice.

Slingshot
Black Blade
(02/04/2002; 17:50:05 MDT - Msg ID: 69296)
Just In! Rats Jumping Sinking and Flaming SS Enron

Just reported on CNBC is that Andrew Fastow, former CFO of Enron is in talks seeking immunity from presecution for his testimony about Enron. A lot of secrets from the inside could be exposed soon. Looking "interesting". Tomorrow could be "interesting" as well because a few other major corporations are known to be suffering from "Enronitis".

- Black Blade
R Powell
(02/04/2002; 17:50:25 MDT - Msg ID: 69297)
POG up $2.20 over Comex close
In Sydney. Someone must have also woke up silver. It's up 0.02. Hey, at least now we know it's still being traded! Come on silver, wake up!!
Only New England Pats fans are happier than Drooy fans today. Congratulations to both.
Rich
Black Blade
(02/04/2002; 18:12:21 MDT - Msg ID: 69298)
Jim Puplava Cuts to the Chase - Wrap Up
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

In looking at projections for the year a few analysts question the rosy projections being made for 2002. Some even question if there will be profits, especially now that many companies will have to write down goodwill and other assets that are impaired. Recognizing this problem, Wall Street firms such as Goldman Sachs are telling to look past the write-offs and look at pro forma earnings, which exclude these losses. The argument is now being made that the destruction or impairment write-downs don't represent real losses since it is just a paper loss. Others disagree. Those assets that are going to be written off were paid for by issuing additional shares of stock. Share issuance in a takeover dilutes shareholder value if it doesn't represent real assets or real earnings power to the company that is doing the acquiring. That is why so much time is being spent trying to spin away these losses. They represent the most careless and negligent use of shareholder money. There has never been a time when management has been so reckless in their stewardship of shareholder money.

In today's futures markets gold bullion prices rose $3.90 to close at $290.7. The rise in gold and silver stocks are signaling important changes lie ahead for the metals and the financial markets, which may be one more reason nobody is talking about it. When the public starts buying gold, silver, oil and natural resource stocks the bull market, which ended in January and March of 2000 will officially be pronounced dead. Wall Street knows that when this happens the party in equities will be over. All that will be left of it will be the hangovers and the losses. At least one analyst has wakened up this fact. Today Michael Dudas of Bear Stearns recommended shares of Newmont Mining as the best stock to own in relationship to a rise in gold because the company does not hedge its production. This stock has the greatest leverage to the price of gold. Dudas believes that gold prices will rise higher this year because investors and producers have fewer reasons this year to sell or lease out gold. With Newmont's takeover of Normandy many hedged producers may be forced to buy back their hedges, taking more gold off the market. Experts believe that gold could go as high as $350 this year. That is without any mishaps in the financial markets or any further acts of war.

Black Blade: I Ditto that! Especially in this period of grossly overvalued markets. Now that Enronitis is an epidemic ravaging the markets we could well be on our way to seeing Gold break loose of any malevolent forces restraining a wild run higher. Some good reading - check it out. "Interesting Times"
slingshot
(02/04/2002; 18:17:05 MDT - Msg ID: 69299)
Gamesmanship
Mr.Fastow. Do you have a Get Out of Jail Free card?

No, Your Honor. Will the Key to the Community Chest do?


LOLROF
Slingshot
Canuck
(02/04/2002; 18:19:00 MDT - Msg ID: 69300)
Caution
John Ing was just on ROBTV about half an hour ago. He gave his 15 spiel on the usual, Argentina, Enron and Japan. He said investors are loosing confidence, he also warned that gold stocks might be a little ahead of themselves.

He predicted an average price of gold this year of $325 with a high of $375 (cool). He expects only mild resistance at 292 and 298, medium resistance at $320/325.

Hope the yellow catches up soon.
uponroof
(02/04/2002; 18:24:35 MDT - Msg ID: 69301)
Enron...a likely POG scapegoat?
Well gang here we sit, right on the doorstep. I have not seen such interest in gold since September 99. Yeah and it's coming from places it's never come from before. Real exciting. POG up overnight?

It seems the POG can not be controlled much longer. How convenient is it to drop the POG manipulation mess on Enron related damage.

Perhaps one of the shorts is gonna crack and start buying.....and use the Enron mess as an excuse to the others with whom they broke allegience? Or the gummint will bail on the backdoor protection and use Enron as an excuse. Just more wild and crazy hunches...but the timing is perfect. If you want to drop a load of bad kharma right now Enron is the perfect place. What a great time to dump POG manipulation, just before it escapes anyway.

Black Blade, soichin, and darkhorse...Bucks county is next door to me. North Bucks has some of the finest 18th century 'gentleman's farms' in the nation. Central Bucks is
home of Doylestown, another fine area. Lower Bucks is too darn close to Philly...just like darkhorse says...not very nice. I'm in Montgomery County...the most taxed county in the most taxed state in the union....or something close to that. Cheers all.
Canuck
(02/04/2002; 18:30:57 MDT - Msg ID: 69302)
@ BB @ All
Just read your Fastow and Powers posts.

The Titanic has just hit the 'berg!! This is going to get SuperUgly.

Crash helmets on!
Black Blade
(02/04/2002; 18:31:33 MDT - Msg ID: 69303)
Lance Lewis - Daily Market Summary
http://home.attbi.com/~llewis/marketsummary.htmlMarket Summary

Snippit:

Oil was off 31 cents. The XOI was off 2 percent, and the OSX was off 3 percent (no indication of concern over US action against Iraq here yet.) Gold rose $3.30, and the HUI rose 6 percent to a new 52-week high. The JSE Gold index in South Africa rose 4 percent to a new 52-week high after GOLD reported a tripling of its earnings for Q4 this morning. GOLD's CEO said that Q1 looks even more promising. That helped GOLD to rally 4 percent to a new high for the move. DROOY was also a standout in the South African golds as its ADRs rose 37 percent today. There was also a story on the wires today discussing Japanese pension funds recently taking a shine to gold and diversifying into the yellow metal (there's obviously also been some physical gold buying in Japan by individuals based on fears over the reduction in banking insurance that will go into effect at the end of March, but pension fund buying is a little more noteworthy both because of the size of Japanese pension funds and the longer term nature of such moves.) Now, things have gotten pretty wild in the gold shares over the last few days, and the shares have all made some pretty big moves. Barring some sort of currency move this weekend, that's not going to continue in the current straight up fashion. Bull markets have selloffs, just like bears have occasional rallies. We'll want to watch for heavy call buying on the XAU and speculation in the junior golds to signal some sort of short to intermediate term top is in for these gold shares, but I don't think we're quite there yet for whatever that is worth.

Black Blade: Everyone seems to be boarding the Gold and Silver locomotive. Personally I think that Gold and most any PM could rip higher. Remember Gold and Silver in 1979-1980? How about the more recent PGM rocket with Platinum and Palladium shooting for the stars? It took some combined extremely heavy manipulation and rules changes (essentially a default) on the TOCOM and NYMEX to stop the rally. Gold and Silver will be more difficult in a worldwide run. Take pity on the poor shareholders of Hedge Fund Miner shares who have not enjoyed the gains as much as those who have full price exposure. Even in after hours (NY) the unhedged miners and physical Gold are charging ahead.
The Hoople
(02/04/2002; 18:54:56 MDT - Msg ID: 69304)
sector,all
Had a conversation today with my friend/commodity broker. He trades a relatively minor commodity which Enron entered into in the last year. He said their lawyers negotiated for 8 months with his clearing house to change the wording in the agreement forms to approve their account. What got altered was that they would not be responsible for losing trades in the event of a bankruptcy. When Enron later indeed collapsed and filed bankruptcy the banksters called my broker friend and instructed him to CANCEL all losing trades and keep winning trades per the agreement. they further said to don't even think about taking care of buddies or they would sue. Since I run a hedge program in this commodity for my business I was stunned to learn about this reprehensible development. What a great casino this was! Keep the winners, discard the losers. There is the lesson in a nutshell. The COMEX will screw you in a N.Y. minute. Whenever the game is over, they will just walk away and cancel trades. Whether it is market orders only, sell orders only, or settling in paper you will never beat them unless you own physical. I don't know when the game would end but I would be surprised to see $400 COMEX gold. Too many jackals. What would Goldman, Chase or any B.B. losses be at half of that rise? Enron now has anybody playing fast and hard with the rules scared ----less. When will they decide to walk away rather than face the consequences? Soon I think.









Canuck
(02/04/2002; 18:59:56 MDT - Msg ID: 69305)
Tyco downgraded this afternoon?
Found this clip:

"Herb Greenberg
tyc
2/04/02 3:33 PM ET
S&P cuts Tyco's senior unsecured debt, says it may make further changes until its questions on Tyco's accounting have been answered to S&P's satisfaction. hg


Jim Cramer
TYC
2/04/02 3:30 PM ET
Tyco debt downgraded. Nails!!"



Confirmation anyone?
slingshot
(02/04/2002; 19:02:26 MDT - Msg ID: 69306)
Enronitis
Black BladeWilliam Powers, CEO, Enron.
Andrew Fastow, Past CEO, Enron.

CEO of Arthur Andersen.

Aludes other institutions doing the same.

ITS O.K. Everybody doing IT. Oh, Boy!

Should theU.S. stock market get ripped tomorrow, what will happen to the Nekkei?

Wonder what the damage control the news media will spin.
Body Armor anyone?
Slingshot
sector
(02/04/2002; 19:37:08 MDT - Msg ID: 69307)
@The Hoople,,,"Cancel the Losers" Can It Happen ?
Well...it would draw allot of attention since JPM maintains $37 Billion in gold derivatives. And $20.3 Trillion in interest rate derivatives...they are joined at the hip. Whatever happens to their gold derivatives will happen to their IRDs.

Some even have a death watch on JPM. If hey go down due to a changed S&P debt rating, someone ELSE will have to unwind their positions...someone UNfamiliar with the explosive, intertwined nature of derivatives in general and JPMs nest of snakes in particular.

Let's see...in the event of $400 gold on the access market JPM sort of says...gee we don't want those short contracts any more! So we are going to give the counterparties Argentine pesos instead!? Whad ya say guys?

I once felt that the COMEX would try to default on the gold shorts as an escape route. I don't think so any more because of corroborating comments from Eddie George [BOE ] for one. He said they were"... looking into the abyss" during the WA. IF there were a plan to just walk away he would not have been so sanguine. He would have been blase. He would have said something like..."How terribly interesting"

Nope the cabal has to buy their way out...or swap their way out...which is the way I believe they will choose.

Their problem is that every damn thing they own is directly linked to the price of gold. The dollar, interest rates, interest rate derivatives...the whole freaking lot.

Their other fatal problem is they are bleeding and everyone knows it, so with WHOM are they going to swap? With what kind of terms? Hedge funds will slash them to pieces. Soverigns will yawn.

McDonough and the other mini MoTUs [Masters of the Universe] at the Fed are a tattered bunch getting ripped more each day that Enron festers. ANYTHING that reeks of more market manipulation will be met with screams and hatchets.

This little covering rally may be accelerating as the Enron gold shorts are unwound by folks who are uncaring clerk types...what do they care? $300...$330 So freakin What?

THAT there is a short covering event in the gold market suggests the cabal HAS to buy their way out.
Waverider
(02/04/2002; 19:42:12 MDT - Msg ID: 69308)
Tyco Shares Plunge Again
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/020204/tyco_2.htmlSnippit:
"Shares of Tyco International plunged again Monday on accounting worries even as the company announced a debt restructuring plan to improve liquidity and refuted reports that it failed to disclose details on billions in acquisitions.

The Bermuda-based holding company's shares fell $6.96, or nearly 19 percent, to $29.90 after ratings agencies Standard & Poor's and Fitch downgraded the debt of Tyco International and its wholly-owned financial subsidiary, Tyco Capital. Its shares have fallen by nearly half since December. In extended trading, shares were down another 45 cents."

Waverider: Here you go Canuck. Also, I think your caution is well-warranted. I feel like a (happy) whiplashed Ant today with Drooy but I remain very cautious. Incidentally, why is it that shares generally move in advance of the price of physical? Cheers!
Cavan Man
(02/04/2002; 19:53:26 MDT - Msg ID: 69309)
JP Morgan
Can't believe they'd take a fall as this is a UST (rather, "the")backstop.
Cavan Man
(02/04/2002; 19:55:38 MDT - Msg ID: 69310)
The Hoople
Others have maintained that same train of argument more/less for 4-5 years running. Hope you stick around here and thanks!
Ray Patten
(02/04/2002; 20:15:07 MDT - Msg ID: 69311)
Low volume in Gold again today!
Today's volume of 27,000 contracts was like a normal days trade. Where are the bears? They have stopped every rally since 1996. If they let this market get too far, it will blast through their sell orders like a Saturn rocket blowing through the clouds!!!
USAGOLD
(02/04/2002; 20:41:39 MDT - Msg ID: 69312)
Gold breaks weekend hoodoo


"Gold surged again in early New York trading -- unusual for a Monday." From this morning's Market Briefing 2/4/02


By: Tim Wood
Posted: 2002/02/04 Mon 19:22 | � Miningweb 1997-2002

PRINCETON, NJ -- Fridays have been awkward for gold. If the metal is up in London morning
trade, you can be sure it will be down in New York afternoon trade. If New York can't damp the
fire on Friday, it is satisfied to lay over until Monday when enough metal or negative sentiment is
poured into the market to restore the downtrend.

Things have changed since May when the weekend hoodoo asserted itself time and again.

New York played the optimist on Monday and helped bid the price through the key $290 level.
The primary short-term driver remains a shaky outlook for American equities where it is
guaranteed that a thorough laundering of company balance sheets to rub out the spotty stains
of "special purpose vehicles" � the off balance sheet partnerships that brought Enron low � will
raise the number of Chapter 11 filings to breathtaking levels.

Special attention is being focused on banking giant JP Morgan Chase which is thought to be
suffering potentially mortal wounds from its exposure to a number of deals gone bad. Talk is that
JP Morgan's active derivatives operation has magnified its exposure to the Argentina and Enron
crises, among others, and that the true accounting for that will only be apparent in the weeks to
come.

There is reason to agree, but equal reason to be skeptical. As the Economist noted recently, a
surprising result of Enron's collapse is how quickly and easily the credit derivatives market
digested it. The point is forceful when you consider the sheer weight on the market given the
string of collapses. By now, according to doomsayers, the entire banking structure would have
collapsed.

Clearly, gold buyers are less optimistic. Recent defaults, whether sovereign or corporate, are
taking on the appearance of an accelerating trend that can be traced to the Asian contagion of
1997. When those dominoes fell, they were effectively mopped up save for another outbreak in
1998. Now there has been a succession of failures that are more difficult to isolate and contain.

Simply tot up the write-downs, losses and inventory destocking reported worldwide in the past
15 months and it is obvious that the system is under severe strain. You cannot erase that
quantum of wealth, no matter how widely dispersed, and expect the key US and European
economies to resume the 1990s style growth. Gluttony has its consequences � Japan is living
proof and, ironically, its citizens continue to convert yen into gold at a furious pace.

Also encouraging is the fact that gold buying was strong despite significant long liquidation. The
World Gold Council reports that according to the latest Commitments of Traders Report gold
longs cut their positions by 49 tonnes (1.6moz) to 90.3 tonnes (2.9moz) while shorts bought a
meager 7 tonnes (0.23moz) leaving them with 51.7 tonnes (1.7moz). The next few days will be
critical in determining whether the shorts can defend stops above $290 an ounce.

UBS Warburg notes a notable absence of "professional" selling into the higher price which is
particularly encouraging. By traditional measures, $287 an ounce would have brought on a
flood of selling driven by producer forward selling. But the hedging game has turned around with
producers closing hedges rather than opening or maintaining them. AngloGold has announced
that it will reduce its hedge book significantly, but the reduction will take most of a year.
Black Blade
(02/04/2002; 21:32:02 MDT - Msg ID: 69313)
Asian Markets Tanking
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asian markets are plummeting tonight in sympathy with the US markets, well sort of. Japanese banks are insolvent and now with restrictions that only guarantee insurance on about $75,000 worth of accounts Japanese are scrambling to get out as they smell a rat. That rat is the very real possibility that these insolvent banks might be saved. The problem is so big that Japanese Government and BOJ officials aren't sure that they could even prevent a banking collapse and surely they can't be expected to insure all bank accounts. At least Hari Kiri isn't all that common these days.

Meanwhile many Japanese citizens and especially Japanese funds are accumulating larger positions in Gold as they too smell a rat. After losing so much for their shareholders they really must stop the bloodletting. They in turn are getting prepared with Gold (and to a lesser degree Platinum) portfolio insurance. Now that we know that Asia can't restrain Gold tonight it is now time to pass off this football to Europe. If Europe follows suit, then all bets are off as Enronitis could continue as investors wait for the next shoe to drop. This could get "Iinteresting". It all depends on the action in overnight markets and what news hits the markets next.

Oh yeah - The Nikkei is about to plunge below 9500!

Get out of debt! Get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, get food stores and basic goods for at least 6 months, get enough cash on hand to for several months expenses, and get defensive with your investments. This could get very ugly. At least with a bit of preparation (Ant-style), then we can avoid the disaster that we observe in countries such as Argentina (present), Russia (1998), Asia (1998), etc. (Grasshopper-style).

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(02/04/2002; 21:47:03 MDT - Msg ID: 69314)
Argentina's problems hit U.S., Spanish banks
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020204/l04331298_5.html
Snippit:

MADRID/NEW YORK, Feb 4 (Reuters) - U.S. and Spanish banks could face further loan losses after Argentina proposed floating its peso currency freely, converting all dollar loans to pesos and partly lifting a freeze on deposits.

Black Blade: It looks to get worse as bank exposure just compounds losses that many US banks have related to derivatives exposure, exposure to bad loans related to Enron, Global Crossing, and Kmart among others. Spanish banks are taking some very heavy hits in Argentine exposure. In a word - "GRIM"
Black Blade
(02/04/2002; 22:01:05 MDT - Msg ID: 69315)
Strong COMEX gold gets more impetus from AngloGold
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020204/n04585843_1.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK, Feb 4 (Reuters) - COMEX gold galloped higher Monday, but balked at clearing the January high, after AngloGold Ltd. said it would shrink its hedge book by more than a third, joining the trend among big producers to free gold from the burden of their forward selling.

Optimism is spreading that gold companies have had a change of heart about accelerating supply to the market after taking much of the blame in recent years for gold's poor performance. "It looks pretty positive,'' enthused a dealer. ``First of all, I think everybody is looking at the Anglo announcement.''

AngloGold marketing head Kelvin Williams said some of the company's forward gold sales contracts were unlikely to be renewed as they expire this year, although the company has board approval to hedge up to 50 percent of its annual production, if market conditions are right.

The four-month takeover battle for Normandy was seen by the market as a test case for the future of hedging. AngloGold lost and Newmont, an avowed non-hedger, has pledged to unwind Normandy's 8-million-ounce hedge book as conditions permit.


Black Blade: The days of the Hedgers are over. Look at the results. Mega-Hedgers Barrick, AngloGold, and Placer Dome have missed the lion's share of the recent upswing in Gold and Gold mining share pricing. In fact, the mega-hedgers have grossly under-performed the Non-hedged Gold miners - and for good reason. Investors are taking to heart "you get what you pay for".
The Hoople
(02/04/2002; 22:29:47 MDT - Msg ID: 69316)
Cavan Man , sector
I realize COMEX default and physical/paper separation are well-worn subjects here at the Forum. JPM derivatives are indeed monsterous and won't go away with a "wipe the losers" edict. I don't think even the Fed can print enough paper to bail them out; without an M-3 30 Trillion or so. If JPM ever contracts fatal Enronitis TEOTWAWKI might be a more likely scenario. In that case I would trust no jackal. Enron's demise and corruption didn't surprise me nor was I naive about the depth. What surprised me was how close it nearly hit home when I thought I had zero exposure. It seems there are many more bombs left undetonated for another time soon. I wonder how many other people will wake up to the Enron/JPM nightmare? Gold and silver is the only viable alternative to the fiat insanity we face.
Black Blade
(02/04/2002; 22:38:14 MDT - Msg ID: 69317)
Hubbert's Peak
http://pub38.ezboard.com/fdownstreamventurespetroleummarkets.showMessage?topicID=4140.topic
Snippit:

Hubbert's views logically suggested America would soon have to make a transition from oil surpluses to oil deficits, from cheap oil to expensive oil, and that this new universe of tightening supplies would be quite different from what we were then experiencing (and are still experiencing now). Although Hubbert lived to see his projections for the U.S. come true, the oil industry and academia never fully accepted his views despite their apparent accuracy. Partly owing to this and partly because U.S. companies soon took their technology, experience and capital to foreign lands where oil output quickly surged, allowing our national needs to be met by increasing imports of crude (60% of total U.S. demand in the past six months), Hubbert's name, and the concepts he developed, are not so well known today.

Has anyone pointed out to you recently (after proper adjustments for the true discovery date of reserves) that the world oil industry is now producing approximately twice the volume of crude it is finding each year? That the peak global oil discovery volumes were made in the mid-1960s and that we have been in an inexorable descent since then? That in the late 1980s, new discoveries fell below the level of current production, and are still falling, despite the application of many powerful technological tools in the 1990s? And that 70% of the oil you are consuming today was found 25 years ago or more? These are points that oil companies (and governments) find awkward to discuss.

Black Blade: Interesting article. As I have presented in the past, it is really about "Cheap Oil", not so much how much oil. We are held hostage by Middle East and former Soviet Republics on the energy front. This will further pressure the western economies. Oil is likely to get scarce starting in the next 3 to 7 years as we approach Hubbert' Peak.
Mr Gresham
(02/04/2002; 22:40:32 MDT - Msg ID: 69318)
uponroof
"What a great time to dump POG manipulation, just before it escapes anyway."

You may have perfectly caught the essence of the timing that is upon us now. Keep the Enron story pounding, and you can slip just about anything else past the newshounds.

Saving face, and the politician's next incarnation as a "sound money advocate". Seems like a lot of those are climbing on the Good Ship Enron, bound for virtue. Of course, just when GWB & them are putting the UST on the track to fiscal trainwreck.

Oh well, Enron may have spoiled thousands of retirements, but I think I'm gonna get one of those autographed Shrub & Kenny photos for my family room wall. If I do get any kind of retirement at all, it'll be Kenny Boy I'll remember who got the ball (or coin) rolling for me. Thanks!
Golden Vanity
(02/04/2002; 22:41:40 MDT - Msg ID: 69319)
A fellow traveler returns home
I actually composed this a few days ago but was sidetracked. Even after today I think it's still relevant.
It's been several years since I've stated my thoughts here on USAGOLD.
I haven't been idle during this period just going about the business of watching,
absorbing and patiently waiting. Attempting to see if I could perceive the results of ANOTHER's and FOA's prophetic (to strong?) prognostications concerning
the future of the American economic and monetary system. How could I prove to myself
that the results of their work were showing up in truth, in the actual economic action in America.

I think, (light bulb) I see.

When I see markets falling over the edge, stop, and levitate. When I see the implications
Of the Enron affair in it's hellish depth surged off by the markets. (maybe not after today's action J)

When I see stocks like JP Morgan and Tyco completely reverse loses (well earned)
And rebound to substantial gains on the day after bad Tuesday this week I have to wonder. Have all gone mad. What's going on? Away with the thought of bad accounting
I gotta have it, don't care, gonna buy it anyway. What would drive that kind of action?

Consumer confidence rose in December. The Conference Board's leading indicators turned up. Personal incomes posted their biggest increase since summer. Even though
there are apparent answers� What is the real answer?

Americans have been shot in the hart on the way to recession, but look, no death
or capitulation in the markets, unbelievable,�.Superman? Why?

I could produce many more but you get the general idea of what I'm presenting.

There could be only one answer to the (so many) Why's.
The answer is so simple a child could see it�.even me.

(MONEY) Unlimited gargantuan amounts of it, and at this time, GOLD smells it, bonds do to. Noone has yelled fire, yet, trying to figure out if it's just someone smoking in the theater. "The unemployed shall have their houses and autos" I believe it, because I see it.

It takes a lot of green power to hold this economy up and a willing supply of (borrower) workers to utilize it. We got both in spades. We also have a War mechanism to consume it, (the new growth industry).

Could things get out of hand for the controllers? Yes that is possible but you can bet on one sure thing. There will be "more" injections of money power at each inflection point. There is no bottom to the purse, whatever it takes.

I do not expect large fast moves in the economy or gold's reaction at first. It takes large amounts of power to stabilize. Never underestimate the physics of money. If I ever doubted these prophetic perceptions of ANOTHER and FOA, I don't now.

I am a holder of DROOY, have been for some years as well as "the real thing" and have held the vision through thick and thin. Mostly thin. Thick is better.
I thank all who post here for your voices are not lost in the wind. It is a privilege to have a quality place to rest one's weary bones after a long, long day.



Waverider
(02/04/2002; 22:51:51 MDT - Msg ID: 69320)
USAGold & TownCrier
Sir,
You had invited us to comment on the recent Jensen articles in the Guilded Opinion. I would first like to commend and thank Randy for putting together these excellent presentations in a most user-friendly format. I *very much* like the articles and photographs. I enjoy reading objective analysis of geopolitical events, but the focus on the personal and subjective (with pictures) provides a window through which to view the world from the individual's perspective. As you suggested, I found I came away with a new depth of understanding at the human level because his style literally cuts to the heart of the matter. Thank you for bringing this to us here at the forum, and a thank you to Mr. Jensen for his work and courage in international journalism.
Cheers,
Waverider
Black Blade
(02/04/2002; 23:27:53 MDT - Msg ID: 69321)
Spot Gold Higher
http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
Spot Gold rises to $292.50/oz. surpassing what some claim is a resistence level at $292.00/oz. Meanwhile investors in fear in Asia as markets tank. There is increasing unease in Japan as two or three major banks will likley ask for government assistance in a orderly bailout from onerous debts attributed to bad loans. One individual earlier told me that this is what comes with the territory when one gets in bed with the Yakuza. I wouldn't know, but I thought it was an odd comment from someone who might actually know.

- Black Blade
LeSin
(02/04/2002; 23:56:04 MDT - Msg ID: 69322)
Reported: Ken Lay in Hiding - Goes Underground

Now Bush can look for Kenny-Bin-Hiding Lay. Wonder which
one of those secret tunnels he's in?

Which is the bigger terrorist, in 'financial terms', Ken Lay and his ilk or O.B.Ladden and his ilk?

"S"

schippi
(02/04/2002; 23:57:14 MDT - Msg ID: 69323)
Good And Bad News
http://www.SelectSectors.com/gldresit.gif Good news is that Gold is screaming Up.
The Bad news is that Gold is about to hit
four year overhead resistance.
Black Blade
(02/05/2002; 00:14:05 MDT - Msg ID: 69324)
Gold in Backwardation?
http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
Spot Gold is about $292.00/oz and has slipped into backwardation ahead of the February to June contracts. February contract is $289.30/oz. This is "interesting".

- Black Blade
Waverider
(02/05/2002; 00:53:53 MDT - Msg ID: 69325)
Cairo seeks extra aid to combat crisis
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT39KH0MAXC&live=true&tagid=ZZZINS5VA0C⊂heading=middle%20east%20and%20africaSnippit:
"The Egyptian government is to ask international donors on Tuesday for $2bn to $2.5bn (�1.4bn-�1.75bn) in additional support to address what some are describing as the worst economic crisis in a decade - more profound than that which followed the 1997 Luxor massacre.

The most visible symptom of the crisis is a widening gap between a black market and the official exchange rate for the Egyptian pound.

The unofficial rate is currently E�5.40-E�5.50 to the dollar compared to the official rate of E�4.645 - a differential of about 19 per cent. The stock market has followed the currency by plumbing eight-year lows in recent weeks."

Waverider: Plumbing? I thought it had croaked! However I see tonight the Cairo CCSI stands at 606.76 up 8,875%. Good resus!
Black Blade
(02/05/2002; 02:11:17 MDT - Msg ID: 69326)
European Markets Slump off the Start
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
European markets start off awash in the red! Gold pulls back slightly as Euro markets open. Enronitis epidemic spreads to Europe. If Gold holds up until the NY open then perhaps a run at $300.00/oz. It is entirely possible that a concerted effort will be made to restrain the POG.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(02/05/2002; 02:32:57 MDT - Msg ID: 69327)
Japan govt in damage-control mode as stocks plunge
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020205/t83731_2.html
Snippit:

TOKYO, Feb 5 (Reuters) - Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's government on Tuesday sought to quell worries over a financial crisis and perceptions his economic reform policy was stalling as such jitters knocked Tokyo share prices to 18-year lows. Koizumi's cabinet members came out with a chorus of remarks about keeping a steady course on reform efforts and confidence over banks' health, but they failed to convince the market, where the Nikkei average closed at its lowest since 1983.

Black Blade: Insolvent Japanese banks bring the banking sector to new lows. Japanese are pulling their savings out and threaten a run on the banks and there is the possibility of a "bank holiday" being imposed. Aside from the banking crisis it appears that we may be seeing the beginning of a severe currency crisis. As the Yen plunges in value relative to the US Dollar, we could see Japanese institutions selling US Dollar denominated bonds and repatriating Japanese funds. Meanwhile, there is growing interest in Gold as a wealth preservation vehicle.
TownCrier
(02/05/2002; 02:34:48 MDT - Msg ID: 69328)
International editor Holger Jensen on location with photographer George Kochaniec Jr.
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Jensen/20020204.htmlPhotos available for Jensen's latest report from the West Bank:

"An unequal confrontation: Young Arafat backers challenge tanks with rocks in weekly rite"
TownCrier
(02/05/2002; 02:37:32 MDT - Msg ID: 69329)
In case you missed it: Jensen's first article on location in the West Bank
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Jensen/20020130.htmlWith photos, reporting from the Israeli side:

"Price of settlement: strife and pain -- Israelis face daily trials in hard land"
TownCrier
(02/05/2002; 02:40:36 MDT - Msg ID: 69330)
Follow-up: Jensen's second article from the West Bank
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Jensen/20020202.htmlThis one also with photos; reporting from the Palestinian side this time:

"Infringements leave Palestinians feeling they're under siege"
TownCrier
(02/05/2002; 03:28:01 MDT - Msg ID: 69331)
Tokyo's Nikkei sinks to 18-year low
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^N225&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=my&l=off&z=m&q=lYou'll notice that the Nikkei chart shown at the URL above leading to its 1990 peak and subsequent two years looks very much like the modern Nasdaq chart I posted yesterday. Will our own next ten years unfold for stocks as dismally as seen in Japan?

You might want to be prepared for it either way -- particularly in real terms if not nominally. (i.e., accounting for a politically-induced inflationary "solution")

As a visual reminder for comparison, I'll repost the Nasdaq chart in the next post. Again, note how modern times here matches Japan a decade ago, and consider the many follow-on possibilities with respect to U.S. investments.

R.
TownCrier
(02/05/2002; 03:32:39 MDT - Msg ID: 69332)
Compare Nasdaq shown here to the Nikkei shown earler -- ten year offset
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^IXIC&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=my&l=off&z=m&q=lRecovery can indeed be a long process. Consider a gold diversification to protect your wealth from government's inflationary attempts at economic stimulus.

R.
Canuck
(02/05/2002; 04:15:01 MDT - Msg ID: 69333)
Just on 'Headline News'
"Enron CEO disappears ahead of subpeona"
Canuck
(02/05/2002; 04:50:57 MDT - Msg ID: 69334)
@ Waverider
How are you? Deliriously cold in Ottawa last night, -30C w/wind chill, how is the balmy west? It was a great night to water(flood) the kids rink, the water was freezing on contact, 'major' hockey game this week-end, a dozen or two of the neighbourhood kids squashed into a 20 by 30 foot area. The hockey quickly changes to 'hackey'!

Your question, "Incidentally, why is it that shares generally move in advance of the price of physical?", is generally the market anticipating upward movement of the metal. With the 'accountability' meltdown I suppose it (the market) anticipates heads to roll, how can one disagree at this point? With 'Kenny-boy's' disappearance maybe a 'head has rolled', literally.

I once had a chart pinned to the wall, it was a Gold/XAU ratio, I forget the exact numbers but there was a range where it is thought gold is undervalued/overvalued. For example if gold is 300 and the XAU is 100, it might be perceived that gold is undervalued, shares overvalued. Conversely, if gold is 300 and the XAU is 50, gold is overvalued or shares undervalued. Today's numbers of some 290/65 is a ratio of 4.4/4.5 which may be a little high; if I recall 1996 had a ratio of around 4 (400/100). I am a little fuzzy on the numbers but I do sense shares are running away a bit. Maybe someone has this info.

John Ing was subtle, but he was suggesting that gold, at this junctor needs to 'catch up'.

Have a golden day!

Canuck.
Grubstaker
(02/05/2002; 05:01:31 MDT - Msg ID: 69335)
Capitulation from the ENRON debacle..
http://www.reuters.com/markets_breaking_news_article.jhtml;jsessionid=XFKZNUDZ30DQQCRBAE0CFEYKEEATGIWD?StoryID=570310&basketId=US_COMKTNEWS&marketId=1It seems we here are not fully aware of the implications of this "fallout". More on the wire....
Grubstaker
(02/05/2002; 05:40:02 MDT - Msg ID: 69336)
Enron's fallout in Europe.
http://www.reuters.com/markets_breaking_news_article.jhtml;jsessionid=XFKZNUDZ30DQQCRBAE0CFEYKEEATGIWD?StoryID=570393&basketId=US_COMKTNEWS&marketId=1This link is the wire story concerning the Enron unwinding in Europe. The previous post is for Japan's unwinding "position". The International equities market's were teetering BEFORE this fiasco(as well as general currency weakness)..now it's anyone's guess where it all goes from here. Gold has seemingly lost it's "war effect"..in fact until now most have concluded it to be "irrelevant"..In the face of severe equity and currency collapse Gold will once again flex it's timeless and historical "muscles". The mining interests have been scrambling for the last six months attempting to clear their hedging "positions"...remember A. Greenspans clear statements concerning this matter last spring? The "ENRON" effect will undoubtedly incurr a windfall in this move. All will soon awaken to remember that GOLD is (and always has been) the currency of last resort ......."hang on Martha. it's going to be quite a ride".....
Black Blade
(02/05/2002; 06:12:33 MDT - Msg ID: 69337)
Europe Awash in Enronitis
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
The epidemic of Enronitis continues to sweep across Europe as the questions and scandals keep piling up. The US markets look to start off sluggishly this morning. Meanwhile, Gold has pulled back slightly and there is a tug-of-war going on with th mining shares. DROOY is quite prominent on the ticker before hours. This still could develop into another wild day on Wall Street as more Enronitis scandals break out. Today the CEO of Arthur Andersen is scheduled to testify before congress and you can bet there will be a lot of finger pointing and maybe even other companies will be implicated. More shores to drop!

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(02/05/2002; 06:34:30 MDT - Msg ID: 69338)
Gold Jumps Higher Out of the Gate!
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegoldnewyork.html
Gold jumps +$2.00/oz. right outta the gate as New York trading opens. Market futures went negative as the Enronitis epidemic sweeps across the before hours markets. Could still get rather - ahem - "interesting".

- Black Blade
Black Blade
(02/05/2002; 06:53:47 MDT - Msg ID: 69339)
Rock and Roll!
http://www.mrci.com/qpday.asp
Gold now +$2.70/oz. higher! Meanwhile market futures continue to sink. "Interesting"
Mr Gresham
(02/05/2002; 06:59:28 MDT - Msg ID: 69340)
Contrary Investor, Noland
http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htmThe February C.I. is up; did we already post the Doug Noland link (at PrudentBear.com) from Friday? I see Dollar Bill is aptly quoting from it, but I think that's the week before.

Powerful stuff, and I think Noland emphasizes something we don't hear much about: the credit ratings agencies. Stung by the Enron collapse while they were still calling it "investment grade", they need to get ahead of the curve of collapse now, and call a few more. That _immediately_ chokes off some funding sources to some "bad companies" and brings on the reckoning.
Mr Gresham
(02/05/2002; 07:09:04 MDT - Msg ID: 69341)
BB
http://216.46.231.211/credit.htmI can't believe it: everything I hold went up (just a little) yesterday, a personal first. In fact, for the past 20 years, my term for investing has been: "Mailing money off to New York City. Bye-e-e-e!" (I hit bottom in 1990, so there hasn't been much of that lately.)

Besides what is typical here, I wriggled into some Dow puts at Friday's close and they doubled yesterday. I'll try to remember not to be greedy, and get out before a bounce.

"Been down so long, looks like up to me..."
Black Blade
(02/05/2002; 07:16:03 MDT - Msg ID: 69342)
CNBC Comedy

The female guest analyst on CNBC just said that we are "in recovery". Yeah, OK. Jimmy Rodgers coming up on CNBC.
Canuck Gold
(02/05/2002; 07:21:52 MDT - Msg ID: 69343)
Canuck (2/5/02; 04:50:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 69334)
My interest was piqued by your post. I'm curious about the historical mean ratio of gold/XAU. Do you, or does anyone else, have that information? By the way, for a ratio of 4:1, with gold at 290, the XAU would have to be 72.5, which could indicate that the share prices have some catching up to do.

CG
Black Blade
(02/05/2002; 07:34:41 MDT - Msg ID: 69344)
High PE numbers may be portending market fall
http://www0.mercurycenter.com/business/center1/value020402.htmStock values loftier than even during dot-com daze

Snippit:

On the surface, the stock market looks like it has launched into bubbleland again. The oldest, most basic valuation measure of stocks -- the price-earnings ratio -- soared last week way beyond anything ever recorded, at least since 1872, for the 500 largest U.S. companies.

This ratio for the Standard & Poor 500 index hit a staggering 60 by last Friday, as calculated by Bloomberg News. That's twice the level it reached during the Internet bubble of 2000 and more than three times higher than its historic average.

Black Blade: The sheep are about to be fleeced! Wow, that makes the fair value of the S&P index about 268 based on historical averages. The markets are grossly overvalued!
Mr Gresham
(02/05/2002; 07:38:44 MDT - Msg ID: 69345)
ENRON CHAIRMAN QUITS TO JOIN NIGERIAN FIRM
http://www.satirewire.com/news/jan02/scam.shtml"Asks For Your Confidential Assistances, Bank Accounts Numbers

"Lagos, Nigeria (SatireWire.com) � Saying he had found a venue more worthy of his talents, Kenneth Lay resigned today as chairman of Enron to join a Nigerian government ministry which needs your confidential assistance in the transferring of offshore funds into a new company of Nigeria that will provide incredible profit on paper by the trading of energy.

"The new company will be called the Energy National Resource Organization of Nigeria (E.N.R.O.N.) "

"According to Dr. Tunde Momoh, director of the Nigerian National Petroleum Ministry, which is coordinating the E.N.R.O.N. initiative, the addition of Lay to his staff has given a boost to all Nigerian government ministries, which now earn most of their revenues by sending confidential letters to millions of people asking for their bank account numbers so that the ministry in question can transfer $US20 million to US$60 million from a secretive Ministry fund to the recipient for safekeeping"
RobotGuy
(02/05/2002; 08:01:32 MDT - Msg ID: 69346)
C'mon Cheerleaders!!
Quick!! While the markets show some miniscule gains over yesterday's dump, get cheeringg before it's too late! Let's go people, there's a real sign of a strong market!! Yaaayy team!!! Whoopee, markets are ever so slightly positive over yesterday's close!! Hurry, move the lemmings!! Good news, GE claims a forecasted gain this season, (I didn't think they would stoop that low) save the entire market GE!!

RobotGuy -- All sarcasm implied.
RobotGuy
(02/05/2002; 08:09:13 MDT - Msg ID: 69347)
Oh well!
Maybe we'll get a positive bump tomorrow eh cheerleaders?
The Believer
(02/05/2002; 08:25:36 MDT - Msg ID: 69348)
Is gold out of the woods yet?
Me thinks the woods are dark and deep
But we should never think to sleep
For those with dark hearts cry and creep
To their derivitive papers piled 10 feet deep
They weep and maddly gnash their teeth
As GOLD does to 300 creep
Poor miners hearts for joy do leap
Their familys they might finaly eat
So let investors stay awake
While bankers hearts do crack and quake

Brad
Waverider
(02/05/2002; 08:36:30 MDT - Msg ID: 69349)
The Believer
Great take on Robert Frost - very nicely done - LOL.
Cheers,
Waverider
Brett Woods
(02/05/2002; 09:32:30 MDT - Msg ID: 69350)
What's Up??
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=s&w=1&t=l&a=2POG bid 280.35 ask 291.30
RobotGuy
(02/05/2002; 10:17:46 MDT - Msg ID: 69351)
There she goes!!
Might we even see her break 300 today?
Mr Gresham
(02/05/2002; 10:42:53 MDT - Msg ID: 69352)
LiftOff
Houston, we have liftoff. That might be a good handle for a new poster, but then, we already have LimitUp. I hope he'll be hanging around and making himself seen more often in days ahead...

(When it pops, I'm gonna run out and get my daughter a Ken doll, to go with all her Barbies. KennyBoy gon' put you through _college_, girl! ;) (jes' havin' fun, jes' havin' fun)
Henri
(02/05/2002; 10:43:10 MDT - Msg ID: 69353)
Let'r Rip!
OK good for gold shares...for now $296 an risin'...but the paper market was supposed to collapse not rise!!!???

Hmmm...hope those goiman banks didn't get stuck holding the "Bag" of gold short contracts only to see them blow up in their faces.

This can't be good.

Sir Douglas???
uponroof
(02/05/2002; 10:50:10 MDT - Msg ID: 69354)
Mr Gresham...
Something special about the London close. Most multiple dollar bull run breakouts occurr after the London close. I'm waiting for it to catch it's breath here but it seems POG is well rested and able to run without one. Psych out at 300 dead ahead, then tech scaries at 305. After that it's CYA time for the shorts and non stop to........?

YIKES!!!!!
Did I buy enough?
hee hee hee...
G$
(02/05/2002; 10:53:39 MDT - Msg ID: 69355)
(No Subject)
$300 tick on the April contract!!! Go Baby!!!

G$
G$
(02/05/2002; 10:56:17 MDT - Msg ID: 69356)
(No Subject)
They must have cancelled it. My machine showing me $299.8 as today's high.

G$
RobotGuy
(02/05/2002; 10:59:56 MDT - Msg ID: 69357)
2.1 Trillion
Gee Mr. President, if I had 2.1 trillion to save my country, I'd be lookin at yeller right about now. 2.1 trillion buys a lot of yeller.
Goldfly
(02/05/2002; 11:00:36 MDT - Msg ID: 69358)
Ok boys! Here we go!

Over the top!

Spot 299.2

30 minutes to go.....
Brett Woods
(02/05/2002; 11:00:48 MDT - Msg ID: 69359)
yawn...
it can't go any higher today, can it?
Mr Gresham
(02/05/2002; 11:01:40 MDT - Msg ID: 69360)
Sir Henri
http://www.bloomberg.comHow long has it been, my bro, since we watched a (fingers crossed -- "spike") day together?

I think Sir FOA means that the collapse will be so telescoped together, since it was so precisely managed (and patched of late) on the way up, that gold shares will be thrown into doubt as to their convertibility into spendable purchasing power through the collapsing USD strainer.

His timing could have been off, but then gold stocks have always been something of an oxymoron in a fiat age: You're betting on at least a partial collapse of the system you hope to get paid in. Even now, the stock owners must be pondering their exit points -- and I admit, in the meantime I am quite envious, and wishing I had such "problems" to ponder.

I think he tackled the concept of Leverage, and used the word with utmost seriousness in questioning the risks behind gold shares. In considering risk/reward, he asked us to consider ALL risks, and I'm sure his weighing took into account even days like these.

The X factor, IMO, is the _shortness_ of the collapse, and we've now seen events like Enron take place within a month (Oct-Nov), with fallout still unknown. How quick could a JPM (or LBMA player?) go down, and how long for the news followups to grace our screens?

And now to peek in on the little POGster...
RobotGuy
(02/05/2002; 11:11:38 MDT - Msg ID: 69361)
Mining
I've read a lot of talk in here about silver being more scarce than gold. I hate to make a negative point on such a positive day, but every mining company I research has a byproduct of silver in more mass than the gold being mined. It seems to me that there would be significantly more silver available than gold in the near future. Let's not forget countries like Mexico, where their silver production is quite significant. Why do you say that silver is more scarce than gold?
sector
(02/05/2002; 11:20:19 MDT - Msg ID: 69362)
JPMorgan struggling to stay above $29
A pog close at $297 ish will be not so good for the mini MoTUs at the NY Fed.

Eddie George's "Abyss" awaits them.
RobotGuy
(02/05/2002; 11:26:33 MDT - Msg ID: 69363)
Glass Ceiling
Perhaps we had all better don our kevlar umbrellas, I have a feeling there's going to be a lot of shattered glass falling around here!
Henri
(02/05/2002; 11:29:58 MDT - Msg ID: 69364)
Mr. Gresham
It has been awhile indeed! My fingers crossed too 2X...if comex defaults, unhedged miners which now promise payment of dividend in gold would seem to be out of the grasp of the nastys if they do not use fiat for financing or pay out in fiat there is no fiat capital gains...Hmmm...
I'll go ponder that some more.
R Powell
(02/05/2002; 11:44:53 MDT - Msg ID: 69365)
RobotGuy
There is more silver than gold in the ground.
In processed, refined, acceptable, market deliverable form there is much more gold in world storage than there is silver. It's impossible to say exactly how much of either exists but, from GFMS numbers and other "reliable(?)" guesstimates, there are only 300 to 500 million ounces of silver that could supply the market right now. I don't believe there is very much at all that can be had at the present low price.
Obviously, this doesn't include jewelry, coins or grandma's silver tea set.
I got home from work and out of the shower when POG hit $299. My wife couldn't stop laughing when I started dancing. I'm not a good dancer but I am sure am a happy one!
Hey, mikel, can we yell today???
Rich
JCF
(02/05/2002; 12:12:21 MDT - Msg ID: 69366)
"Greenspan Urges Better Financial Knowledge" - WASHINGTON POST, 2/5/02
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A25646-2002Feb5.htmlI'm sure he means things like: how banks create "money" out of thin air, how governments have stolen gold, how the financial derivatives caper that fried Enron are quite commonplace, and how Argentina and Japan are merely forshadowing the road ahead. Those sorts of things...
R Powell
(02/05/2002; 12:15:54 MDT - Msg ID: 69367)
CNBC
There's an analyst talking about three negative market forces pressuring the market. He lists the terrorist threat, poor accounting practices or Enronitis and excessive corporate debt.
If they really start to figure things out, will the facts then start actually moving the markets?
CNBC also has started listing the POG early in the morning, just as it flashes the Dow, Duck and S+P futures. A positive ruling now from Judge Lindsey and a surprize Greenspan televised interview announcing the coming return of honest money and we'll be on our way! No, no, don't hold your breath!
I noticed that silver's nice 10 cent move sparked a little POG movement today. This is good.
Rich
Mr Gresham
(02/05/2002; 12:41:59 MDT - Msg ID: 69368)
Another way of looking at it


Paper gold gains might be like having a big fat frequent flyer miles account (been through this, several times) and you've got the family salivating over a nice trip ahead, but when you go to book the dates your family actually can travel: No seats. Everyone else beat you to 'em. (Try all dates, finally you give up and buy some stupid thing with your miles on the shopping links.)

Maybe instead of frequent flyer, they should call it a "Fractional Reserve" Flyer account?

RobotGuy
(02/05/2002; 13:02:12 MDT - Msg ID: 69369)
Gold, long term loser?
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B82779538%2DC6DE%2D4B5E%2D88D1%2D5EC72BEEC551%7D&siteid=mktwsnippits:
LOS ANGELES (CBS.MW) -- "Dr. Paul, you're an idiot," was the message.

"Last year you warned us not to invest in gold funds, calling them 'fool's gold.' Since then, gold's up 33 percent. That's 50 percent better than those stupid S&P 500 index funds you recommended that are down 17 percent. You idiot!"

Okay, okay, so I'm guilty. You'd be 33 percent richer instead of 17 percent poorer if you sold everything and put all your money in gold. In fact, you'd have made 12 percent just last month.

So, I'm gonna make it up to you. Herewith, my four secret rules for gold investing.

The first is simple, a lesson I learned collecting coins and stamps as a kid. Buy gold coins only if you love collecting. Storage and transfer costs offset appreciation.

..............

Pork bellies, soybeans and gold

At the time, Past-Present-Futures newsletter published a special gold report. Editor James Flanagan said gold was no longer the "storehouse of value" that for centuries bankrolled pharaohs, emperors and kings. Today, gold's just another commodity, like soybeans and pork bellies. So what's the new storehouse of value? Paper promises -- U.S. Treasuries!

................(more to article)


Robotguy: The only thing I can say is sure, gold may have been a poor investment in the past, but,... History doesn't necessarily repeat itself to a tee. The only thing you are dead wrong with Dr. Paul, is that you have compared gold to a regular commodity such as pork bellies and soya beans. Where in history have you ever seen a country's wealth measured by the amount of pork bellies it has? You have failed to see the significance of gold possession in history, so therefore all references you wish to make to historical events are void in my opinion.
Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD
(02/05/2002; 13:05:14 MDT - Msg ID: 69370)
A great education -- without the student loans!
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

ABCs of Au by MK

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"Gold will play a critically important role in American investment portfolios in the years to come. This book provides investors a basic education on private gold ownership from one of the nation's top experts." --Rep. Ron Paul, Texas, U.S. House of Representatives

Please Remember: It is your purchase from Centennial Precious Metals / USAGOLD that nourishes these pages.

Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD
(02/05/2002; 13:12:47 MDT - Msg ID: 69371)
Hard assets... Easy access!
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

gold sovereigns
Gold Sovereigns Today!

Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

In this global marketplace, a single event on the far side of the world can suddenly and adversely affect the performance-credibility value of the commercial positions within your investment portfolio.

Gold has no employees, no overhead, and no financial statement to balance. It cannot go bankrupt. Gold is wealth itself. It is valued worldwide on the basis of its uniquely reliable form and function -- a steadfast financial commodity which is immune to the contagious collapses to which all financial paper is prone.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

Trapper
(02/05/2002; 13:18:14 MDT - Msg ID: 69372)
Buffet's Silver
Anyone out there have an idea as to the price Buffet paid for his silver? I figure he has a good handle on the top side pricing, just don't want to chase it too much.
Thanks
RJ
Knallgold
(02/05/2002; 13:30:58 MDT - Msg ID: 69373)
WEF
It looks like the big boys have talked a lot about Gold during those WEF days...
sstins
(02/05/2002; 13:39:48 MDT - Msg ID: 69374)
The doctor is not in
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={82779538-C6DE-4B5E-88D1-5EC72BEEC551}&siteid=mktw&dist=nbkDr. Paul sums up the current investment approach towards gold and gold stocks. The script is currently being revised.

Black Blade
(02/05/2002; 13:48:40 MDT - Msg ID: 69375)
Gold futures near $300 an ounce
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7BF1A78362%2DC654%2D435A%2D94FD%2DC2BF1CCC249E%7D
Mining stocks charge to a 2-year high

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Gold futures, climbing nearly $10 to surpass a one-year high, closed near $300 an ounce Tuesday and pulled a key gauge of metals companies to its highest level in two years.

"Continuing doubt regarding equities and nefarious accounting techniques has raised the specter of further bankruptcies in the U.S.," said Erik Gebhard, an analyst at Altavest.com. Gold for April delivery climbed to an intraday high at $299.80 an ounce and closed at $299.10, up $9. The contract hasn't topped $298 since Jan. 19, 2001.

Some analysts pointed to waning investor confidence in U.S. capital markets. "I would note that the political situation in Washington is becoming more and more anti-business, which is a negative for the U.S. financial markets and, by extension, the U.S. dollar," said Kenneth Landon, a currencies analyst with Deutsche Banc in Tokyo.

Black Blade: Meanwhile stock indices have reverse direction after a feeble rebound attempt as Sen. Daschle (D-SD) says that the Economic Stimulus package is dead on arrival and will be shelved. Add to this horrible earnings and the prospect of more Enronitis. Oh yeah, the CEO of Arthur Andersen Joseph Barardino went through a grilling today and former Enron employees were trotted out for the cameras.
darkhorse
(02/05/2002; 13:53:36 MDT - Msg ID: 69376)
Trapper (02/05/02; 13:18:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 69372)
I'll have to go back and find the source, but I think I read sometime last year that he got all of it under $6/oz, and got most of it under $5.50. Don't quote me on that, right now I'm pulling from memory (and it's been known to have a hole or two in it from time to time :)).
Black Blade
(02/05/2002; 13:55:10 MDT - Msg ID: 69377)
U.S. layoff plans rose 32 pct in Jan-Challenger
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020205/n05212430_1.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK, Feb 5 (Reuters) - Layoff announcements at U.S. firms rose markedly in January compared with December as firms sought to weather the recession by reducing costs, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said on Tuesday.

Job cuts announced in January totaled 212,704, up 32 percent from December, when companies announced 161,584 layoffs, the Challenger report said. ``Consumers are spending less and business is spending a lot less,'' said John Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger Gray. ``Until this trend reverses, companies will have to find ways to contain costs because there is simply not enough money coming in,'' he said.

Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" continues to grow. The real unemployment rate continues to increase as many people are simply giving up or going "off the books". Yet others are simply under-employed. This will continue to plague the US economy. I see absolutely no good news that even hints at an economic recovery. There is simply a lot of data manipulation and that's it. Better get outta debt, get food and basic necessities stored, get enough cash on hand for a few months expenses, and of course Gold and Silver portfolio insurance. This isn't going to get better anytime soon.
R Powell
(02/05/2002; 14:32:55 MDT - Msg ID: 69378)
Trapper
Warren Buffet started buying in the summer of 1997 and accumulated 89 million ounces before Philbro, his brokerage firm, disclosed his purchase. Whether he recieved the remaining 40.7 million ounces of his purchase or recieved promises for already leased silver or agreed to take new leases from those not able to deliver the final 40.7 million ounces, is not clear. He moved his stash to London where the law provides him more privacy as to what has/is to become of his silver. Most of what he bought was in the last half of 1997 so a price chart of that time will answer your question. From memory, I'd quess the average price was $5.25-5.50. Once word got out POS rocketed to an interday high of 7.38 on Feb. 5, 1998. Those were the days, my friend. Hope we see them again, soon.
Rich
Black Blade
(02/05/2002; 14:43:33 MDT - Msg ID: 69379)
Sentiment Change on CNBC?

Today Bob Pisani joined Ted David in referring to Gold as a "flight to quality". These guys could get in trouble as John Murphy did when he said that Gold was manipulated and not a good economic indicator anymore. Today Jimmy Rodgers said that if Gold went over $300.00/oz. then it is a different game. Exactly what I said. If Gold goes over $300.00/oz. and can hold through tomorrow's trading in NY, then we have a whole new game.

Meanwhile, dim bulbs Joe Kernan and David Faber (dumb and dumber) were wondering out loud where investors could run to hide from the economic crash. Gold wasn't even mentioned though Joe said that he would consider Krispy Kreme donuts. Hmmm�

Also, the Enron hearings are taking the wind out of the sails in this stock market. Every time the stock markets attempted a rally, more bad news would leak out and the indices would sink back into negative territory. If it wasn't Enron or Global Crossing or Kmart, or Arthur Andersen, or (enter your own favorite bankruptcy or scandal here). Now there's news of a new scandal brewing in Global Crossing that could also spark more Congressional hearings. Hey, even Sen. Tommy Daschle has shelved the economic stimulus package without a vote. Obviously he must make the party in power look bad for this year's elections. This too will put pressure on the US economy and therefore look for more volatility on Wall Street tomorrow.

These Enron hearings are a lotta fun! The congressmen just grill the hell outta anyone from Enron or Arthur Andersen while consoling those unfortunate former and tearful Enron employees who did not diversify (they were not required to invest solely in Enron shares). This should drive home the point that everyone should take some personal responsibility and have some Gold and Silver portfolio insurance. "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade
Old Yeller
(02/05/2002; 14:51:33 MDT - Msg ID: 69380)
FOA,from Oct.8/01

The gold market today is composed of a relatively tiny physical sector with an all consuming paper component surrounding and dwarfing the standing stocks.This relationship is fine and well as it served the international community with a way to hedge dollar positions with price rises in gold.It worked as long as this "paper gold" float had credibility,not to be confused with delivery credibility.In our modern dollar gold markets,derivative gold investors need only have faith that their position "could and would" deliver a gold "price matching"quality.As long as the dollar remained the world settlement reserve currency,one need not have access to real gold to generate hedged buying power,paper gold would do this for you.Whether the gold price moved or no,a position and faith was all that was needed to continue dollar use.This kind of position has grown in the final decade of dollar use.

In order to float ever larger numbers of international dollars,the paper gold float had to expand with it.Our dollar was very much hyper-inflated as it was used in a final act of world economic leverage;"political use" that drained the last bit of leverage value from a failing currency system.To this end,the "paper gold" markets were matched point to point,with international dollar inflation.

As we proccced with this act,the dolllar will come to be seen as just another currency,rather than the world's reserve settlement money.We see today the making of this move,as national blocks move in this direction.England,Russia,China and South Africa are thinking more and more of using "another" currency ,in a % that more reflects a realistic ratio of their trade flows.Soon oil,debt and all world settlement will be done more so in this same ratio.

Soon,investors will match their fiat needs and savings plans so as to be denominated in Euro positions,again equal to a more worldly trading scale,this initial shift will have a dramatic impact on the use ,need and overall function of our current paper gold markets as expressed in dollar terms.

In order to replace the loss of our international dollar demand and it's impact on domestic economic and financial structure.the US Fed has and will begin a structural currency inflation that builds upon a already over-extended base of world dollar liquidity.

In the end analysis,the dollar will suffer an ever more negative correlation of assets in a snowball effect that trends investors away from dollar use and settlement.As dollar price inflation roars and physical gold demand soars,the dollar gold markets will comepletely fail their past hedging purpose as they become locked into a political cash settlement mode.A mode that forces an ever expanding discount against spot physical trading in Europe and the world.".

Got credibility?

Someone appears to be losing their's at an accelerated pace.Now they're moving the deck chairs around at the CFTC,no surprise to us long term readers at USAGOLD.

Thanks for your time and insight,FOA.Please check in soon.
Black Blade
(02/05/2002; 15:15:50 MDT - Msg ID: 69382)
Miners finally get Street's attention
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BA8DA1139%2DE270%2D481B%2D85DA%2D1D8E058F8BA7%7D&siteid=mktw
Gold's run at $300 an ounce sparks a mini-rush

Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - Against a backdrop of fiscal devastation in Japan and ticking financial time bombs in the United States, long-forgotten gold mining stocks are attracting the attention of Wall Street money managers. "I'm getting a lot more calls," says Pierre Lassonde, who later this month will become president of Newmont Mining (NEM), soon to be the world's largest gold producer upon completion of a merger. "When I was in Europe last year, I saw more interest in gold stocks than I have in five years."

"The premium for safety is rising again," John Hathaway, manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund, said Tuesday from New York. "Enron, Japan, Argentina, Kmart, maybe a large bank soon, it's all there for investors to see."

Black Blade: Yep, Gold has gone "mainstream" and Gold articles will start to come out everywhere. Now that the Prez can't save the US economy with a stimulus package we just might see Gold and Silver push higher. Mining expansion and exploration activity won't increase this year either - the problem is that it is already a bit late in the "Budget Planning" season, so another year of less supply with increasing demand. It will be at least another year before outta work miners, mining professionals (like geocientists) and mining technicians (like mining engineers) will be back at the mines.
TownCrier
(02/05/2002; 16:16:52 MDT - Msg ID: 69383)
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) -- for the uninitiated, newcomers seeking the wisdom of wealth
http://www.usagold.com/GoldTrail/archives/ANOTHER1.htmlWhere your wealth must travel with you on the road of life, "...can you not follow in the footsteps of giants?"
Black Blade
(02/05/2002; 16:19:18 MDT - Msg ID: 69384)
Gold Bear Misses Out
http://www.goldminingoutlook.com/
I see that SJ Kaplan has missed the mark again. He went bearish some time ago and has completely missed out on the recont Gold bull. He hasn't updated since Dec.
uponroof
(02/05/2002; 16:50:28 MDT - Msg ID: 69385)
A question..........
...from a friend. Can someone here help us out?

"I've been asking for a week for a place I can find out exactly how much US currency is in circulation....Where can I get this data? I would also like to obtain data on other major world currencies."

Thanks.
Canuck
(02/05/2002; 16:54:40 MDT - Msg ID: 69386)
@ Canuck Gold @ Waverider @ All
http://www.sharelynx.net/Markets/Charts/XAUGold.htmThe post this morning needs more attention. The above chart is inverse to what I referred to this am. It is a XAU/Gold as opposed to Gold/XAU. Same thing upside down.

The very bottom chart is very interesting. Note (yes indeed CG) that shares are not overvalued today. I suppose some are, some are not but not from the view of this image. Also note in 1996 shares were deemed to be overvalued at 0.37. (or 2.7 in terms of Gold/XAU). My number of 4 was way off the mark; gold at $400 would have made the XAU at 148. Gold today at $298 and I'm guessing the XAU is around 65 puts the XAU/GOLD at 0.22 and the GOLD/XAU at 4.6.

I wonder if the shares will still 'run'?

Canuck.
Cavan Man
(02/05/2002; 17:02:53 MDT - Msg ID: 69387)
Old Yeller & MR. Gresham
on FOA; dubbed, "the essayist"Dear Sirs:

This quote I remember verbatim: "...the market will fail going straight up or straight down". I do believe the price discovery paradigm will shift and change dramatically. About the other stuff I haven't a clue. The gold market is so screwed up and obviously so political, virtually anything can happen. Don't say it can't. The 200K mining shares I currently own are being watched very closely.
Boxman
(02/05/2002; 17:05:42 MDT - Msg ID: 69388)
Bonner/gold statements
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/
I especially liked his statement "Paper money, on the other hand, moves. Give it a good gush of air and it gets whipped up like trash in an alley".

Combine Bonner, Fleckenstein, and most of the Knights at this round table, and there would be a plethora of memorable statements daily. If I had the time, I would put them all together daily. Alas, my family, for some unknown reason, feels it necessary to partake of some of my time on a regular basis. I will be retiring from the "box" business in eleven weeks, maybe then I will consider it. (CavanMan, more on this later.)

Snippett from todays column (actually, this is more than a snippett, as it comprises close to half of todays commentary)



GOLD DOES ITS JOB
by Bill Bonner

"The Japanese people themselves are reportedly buying gold like it is going out of style, carrying it home in bags loaded up with the stuff," writes the Mogambo Guru. This underscores the notion that gold is the ultimate hedge against government mismanagement. They recognize that their own government is debasing their currency, and they are rightfully scared. Thus, gold again performs its job."

Gold's job is to do nothing. I have recommended it to you in these letters at the beginning of each of the last two years. It has not gone up. But neither has it gone down. It has gone nowhere.

Under the circumstances, nowhere has been as good a place for an investment to go as any. Bernie Ebbers' stock fell 84%. Amazon is down 90%. Cisco knocked investors for a $60 billion loss. Gold bullion, on the other hand, is worth roughly as much today as it was 2 years ago, and in real terms, about what it was worth 20 years...or even 2000 years ago. In the Roman era it was reported that an ounce of gold would buy a man a decent toga with a belt. Today, an ounce of gold - at $289 - will still probably buy a decent toga, if you can find one.

Gold goes nowhere. It may be portable, but it is immobile.

Paper money, on the other hand, moves. Give it a good gush of air and it gets whipped up like trash in an alley.

Today's letter is inspired and informed by an article entitled "The Investment Case for Gold," found on the website of the Tocqueville Funds. To make a long story short, it argues that the tailwinds that have blown paper assets forward since 1979 have already begun to swing around. In the coming storm, the dollar and the Dow could lose up to 85% of their value, relative to gold.

One day to the next, it is impossible to say what will happen to gold, the dollar or stock prices. But a chart at the Tocqueville site shows a longer-term pattern. It is, we imagine, a pattern imprinted on humans' hard drive...

The chart plots the Dow against the price of gold from 1915 to 2001. From 1915 until 1926, the currents blew the Dow up to a level that was 15 times the price of gold. Then, in the whirlwind of a bear market and depression, people turned their backs on paper and clung to gold. In the financial debacle of the '30s, people lost confidence in paper; not in the dollar, which remained strong, but in stocks. Their distrust of stocks was so great that it took 22 years - from 1926 to 1948 - before the Dow began to rise against gold.

But once the trade winds got behind paper assets again, they blew steadily for the next 17 years, until 1965. By then, the ratio of the Dow to gold had reached nearly 30, whereas it had been below five in 1948.

Once again, after 1965, the winds changed direction and blew so hard, the ratio of the Dow to gold fell to below one in 1980. In that year, gold sold, briefly, for more than $800 an ounce. The Dow at the time was only 796. You could have bought the entire Dow for a single ounce of gold.

You should have done so. Because never again would the price of gold be so high and the price of stocks so low. The Dow began its epic rise in 1982...taking it to a new record high against gold in 1999. In that year, the Dow/gold ratio topped out at 42.

The hot air that carried the Dow and the dollar so high have cooled. The Dow is on its way down. The price of gold, more than likely, is on its way up.

Why should the dollar fall against gold?

"The Enron bankruptcy, the de facto default on sovereign debt by Argentina, and a looming financial crisis in Japan," says the Tocqueville report, "are random but high profile reminders of a deteriorating global credit environment."

The lie hidden in the deepest entrails of modern central banking is that "money" can be created out of thin air. If the economy is growing too slowly, economists are heard urging the central bank to "put more money" in circulation. Of course, if more "money" could really make people rich, the Argentines of the 1980's would have been fabulously wealthy.

Instead, they became pathetically impoverished. How come? Because the central bank cannot really put more "money" in circulation. All it can do is circulate more of what appears to be money...paper currency or credit...in order to make people feel that they are richer than they really are. Under ideal conditions, the mock money causes people to spend and invest a little more freely...and gives a sluggish economy a boost.

But people cannot really spend money they do not have. Money must represent real wealth...real resources... or it has no meaning. Printing extra bills does not increase the amount of real resources available. So, handing out the extra cash and credit is a kind of deceit...which is welcomed by almost everyone, until it blows up.

The phony money causes people to change their behavior. They spend money they don't really have...and invest in projects they shouldn't. Money seems delightfully easy to come by in the boom stage and gets tossed around casually. But what happens? Eventually, people become aware that their investments are not producing the profits they had hoped for. They cut back. Consumers cut back too - realizing that they are not as rich as they had thought. And lenders, who were happy to extend credit to Enron and household pets when the economy was booming, become worried. Question marks begin to appear. Will debtors really be able to make their payments? Are earnings really what the company says they are? Will sales really go up in the future?

As Eric reported yesterday, lenders have become reluctant to make new commercial loans. Is it surprising? Bankruptcies, credit defaults, and late payments are hitting new records. Who would want to lend?

And yet, if the rate of borrowing and spending declines - the boom is over.

We think the boom is over, dear reader. Because the quality of credit has been called into question. More and more "Enron stories" will hit the news. More and more question marks will appear. How can the U.S. afford such huge new government outlays? How many dollars really are in circulation? How many more Enrons are out there?

The boom mindset...in which everything gets better and better for ever and ever...doesn't change quickly. "Market metaphysics change glacially over decades," says the Tocqueville report. Each generation learns the same lessons, more or less. And always the hard way.

Relative to gold, we expect the dollar to fall.

Because gold production is declining. And though central banks may favor paper currencies, the currency they most favor is their own. While the dollar had the wind to its back it seemed to make sense for central bankers to lighten up on gold and hold more interest-yielding, U.S. dollar assets. But central bankers must feel the new chill wind too. They, too must be asking questions.

"Central banks will suspend gold sales," the Tocqueville Report predicts, "and balk at rolling over bullion loans. Market sentiment towards financial assets will sour further. The bear market in financial assets, already underway, will become more widely recognized."

The huge, long-term shifts of sentiment - from favoring stocks and paper assets to distrusting them - will undoubtedly continue. "How the market travels from one extreme to the other is unknowable," continues the Tocqueville team. "What is clear is the preponderance of confidence or the lack of it at each extreme."

At the most recent extreme, the Bank of America lent Bernie Ebbers millions of dollars. At the other end of the cycle, they will feel lucky to get it back. What will happen to Ebbers and WorldCom, we don't know. But an ounce of gold, we predict, will still buy you a decent toga.

Bill Bonner




Cavan Man
(02/05/2002; 17:21:58 MDT - Msg ID: 69389)
@Boxman
I hope it is voluntary. Congratulations. I was wrestling with the alligators all day today. Has your company chosen a successor?

Boxman
(02/05/2002; 17:23:32 MDT - Msg ID: 69390)
Cienna layoff announcement
From "ThePrudentBear" Column
Snippett:

"The day started off gloomy with a Q1 earnings warning from telecom equipment maker Ciena, and further concerns about accounting shenanigans. Ciena said it plans to fire 400, about 12% of its workforce. Worse, the CEO squealed on the industry when he explained lower than expected Q1 revenues by saying, "�several of our major customers made substantial changes in their deployment plans resulting in significant reductions in the amounts of equipment they had previously indicated they anticipated purchasing from us." But what about the "v"?"

The "Bone Pile" continues to grow. Sorry Black Blade, I have been itching to type those words.


Black Blade
(02/05/2002; 17:39:04 MDT - Msg ID: 69391)
Daily "Bone Pile"

Ciena to Cut 400 Jobs -

BALTIMORE (AP) - Optical networking equipment maker Ciena Corp. announced Tuesday it will cut 400 jobs, or 12 percent of its work force, and expects its first-quarter loss to be nearly double what analysts had been expecting.

MeadWestvaco to Cut Corporate Staff by About 435 Jobs, or 21 Percent

BellSouth to Cut 3,000 Jobs -

ATLANTA (Reuters) - BellSouth (NYSE:BLS), the dominant local telephone company in the Southeast, said on Tuesday it will lay off approximately 3,000 employees in a consolidation of its call center operations.

Homestore cutting jobs, hit with lawsuit -

Real estate site Homestore.com is cutting 300 jobs as part of a business reorganization, the company said Tuesday.

Black Blade: And so it goes as the "Bone Pile" grows. And this is supposed to be an economy in recovery.
Black Blade
(02/05/2002; 17:48:53 MDT - Msg ID: 69392)
Japan's Death Spiral?
http://www.forbes.com/2002/02/05/0205japan.html

Snippit:

NEW YORK - Japan is one step closer to a full-blown financial crisis, after Tokyo shares fell to 18-year lows Feb. 5 and are expected extend losses for the fourth straight day Feb. 6. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is pledging to stick by his plan to liberalize the economy, but his popularity, once well above 70%, has abruptly plunged to just above 50%. Last week, the Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell below the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the first time since 1957.

The steadily eroding situation in Japan has some economic experts warning of a financial crisis that would dwarf 1997's problems in Thailand and drag the world's economies into depression. Former Federal Reserve Board Chairman Paul Volcker told Forbes Magazine's Benjamin Fulford that he can't recall in his career a touchier global economic situation.

Black Blade: As I have been saying for some time now. I completely concur.
Boxman
(02/05/2002; 17:53:42 MDT - Msg ID: 69393)
Cavan Man's post #69389 and #69046
Cavan Man, yes, it is voluntary. There are many reasons. One of them is I don't want to put up with what is coming. By that, I mean the pressure of selling in a big bad recession. No successor named yet. As you know, we are close to acquiring a large competitor, and since they have a plant in our relatively small city, there will probably be some consolidation of the two sales forces (actually, there will be four plants within a relatively small radius,with sales reps from each plant covering our state, so the consoidation may get dicey). There are a couple of our people (not in sales at the moment), that have been slobbering over my territory, who will be greatly disappointed if they are left out of consideration.

Pertaining to your post below, I certainly agree that business is terrible. Although our business experienced a sudden drop in December, versus your back to back down years, the drop was colossal, and apparently here to stay.If I were to post how much profits were off Dec. to Dec., you would think that it was a typo. I was scanning Board Converting News this morning, and I believe it stated that 2001 box shipments versus 2000 were off over 7%. As a side note, I have been watching for how many big rigs are on the highways these days, and it does appear their numbers are greatly reduced.(This info is for Black Blade also, as I know he feels box shipments are a barometer of the economy, and he is right, as usual). Black Blade, soon you will have to rely on Cavan Man for box info, and I know he will keep you updated.

Cavan Man (01/30/02; 15:27:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 69046)
Black Blade
I work in the box business. We have just experienced two back to back negative years--not seen since 1974. While we typically lag the slow downs and lag the upturns, I can tell you from first hand experience the business is terrible. The business has in fact been very soft for over a year now. I suppose it is good that financial assets can fetch such high prices and premiums. Down here on terra firma, we are all getting killed. I feel much like a farmer as all the profit has been taken out of our endeavors.

Keep up the good work BB.

HOOSIER GOLDBUG
(02/05/2002; 17:55:38 MDT - Msg ID: 69394)
THE REST OF THE STORY!!!
I do not want to insult any member of the forum, as all know what is transpiring per FOA and ANOTHER insight, but the rest of the story is: THIS IS A BLANCHARD GOLD BULLION TRAP! Don't get caught in the trap! Someone please advise the JAPANESE people! Again today/tonight somewhere to someone, Mr Magoo Al Greenscum has reiterated that central bankers are already lining up today/tonight to stand ready to sell an adequate supply of required GOLD in tomorrow's market to keep the price squelched. Hey Al, better be a bigger supply than you had today, or the price will escalate by a greater margin. In INDIANA tonight, the temperature is below freezing, but the hedgers/shorts' clothes are wringing wet and there is something stinky in their shorts!
silvester
(02/05/2002; 17:55:58 MDT - Msg ID: 69395)
uponroof question about us currency
Seems I remember a Greenspan comment a year or so ago.

Thought he said something to the affect of "they had no way to determine the amount in circulation."
Black Blade
(02/05/2002; 18:04:19 MDT - Msg ID: 69396)
Boxman
Thanks. I am currently sitting atop the "Bone Pile" myself until budgets are set. I should be back at it in March or April. Next year at this time I just may take off to South America with a couple of friends while I am waiting. Without your "Box" indicator I may have to rely on Cavan Man and the "Beer Sales" indicator (ya know crying in the beer). At least you can spend some time here at the forum. Cheers!

- Black Blade
Cavan Man
(02/05/2002; 18:17:24 MDT - Msg ID: 69397)
Boxman
There is a definite fraternity among those who sell cardboard for a living.

The stats I quoted are for the industry. Our company was only down 1.7. Although I was recently honored as the #2 "peddler" in our company, I am looking at your "voluntary" in 2-3 years. Plan to teach, write and cook. I think you are making an excellent decision and I wish you well. I am not enjoying the 4AM wake ups to go to the airports to take off my shoes and be patted down by the homeland security team. A lot of the fun is going out of the business with increasing velocity. Food companies are sucking out every last % of margin and as for the rest of our customers; with so much manufacturing going overseas, it is pretty much hit and miss most of the time. If Glen Meakem and his Free(booters)markets bunch weren't so damn arrogant they could accelerate the demise of the dependency of our industry on high priced guys like you and I by working with them (the vendors) rather than using the strong arm approach. But hey, what do I know? They are wiz kids with MBA's. Anyway good luck my friend.

"Mamas don't let your babies grow up to boxmen"...CM
silvester
(02/05/2002; 18:30:17 MDT - Msg ID: 69398)
Old Yeller msg#69380
It really is so very clear. I've read so many opinions in the last several years. The FOA trail just stands out and seems so probable, whether I agree with it, or like it, or not.
mikal
(02/05/2002; 18:34:59 MDT - Msg ID: 69399)
Celebrate?
@RPowell- It looks like we can celebrate/scream now! Is that a "Rain Dance" you're proficient in? Overseas trading is very solid tonight too. There is a somber mood though, while we wait for the next terrorism or war to provide cover for financial unwinding, meltdowns, defaults, bankruptcies and unimaginable looting and betrayal. BlackBlade says: "Prepare for the long haul. Get adequate food, gold, spare cash..." A drastic reversal of our neighbors living standards can be mitigated when we are sympathetic and helpful, while keeping a low profile. Yes, TrailGuide, Michael, Randy, and the Forum Knights are vindicated at every turn now. March 21 is the start of Spring Season here in US, and the time for Trail Guide and his "rains". Actually sooner- the rains fall and Spring returns according to Natures whims and geography. If you live in the South, as I have, you know how quickly Spring arrives and how short it can be. And, by now, Trail Guide knows exactly the adventure awaiting on the trail and I trust his lesson plan is committed to memory.
Cavan Man
(02/05/2002; 18:44:08 MDT - Msg ID: 69400)
POG
Up 1.2. What is the higher ground that will be defended by those with a competitive agenda? Any guesses?
slingshot
(02/05/2002; 18:47:27 MDT - Msg ID: 69401)
Lets call this one up!
We have 299 299 299 Do I hear 302 302 302
Give me 300 300 300
Slingshot
USAGOLD
(02/05/2002; 18:49:21 MDT - Msg ID: 69402)
All. . . .
I will remind that a good general never underestimates the opposition, nor does he declare victory until he can walk across the battlefield without risk to his own person. We have been engaged in a war, my fellow knights, THE WAR ON GOLD. But the war is not over yet. We have many battles yet to be fought. Do not let the taste of victory dull your senses. There is much yet to be fought. Gather physical, keep on with the sharpened sword, and let the winds blow where they may. MK
Gandalf the White
(02/05/2002; 18:58:10 MDT - Msg ID: 69403)
KEEP JUMPING SPOT !!
USAGOLD (02/05/02; 18:49:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 69402)
All. . . .
===
HEAR HEAR !!! Now is the time to act !!
Note this Henri --
CLINK, CLINK, CLINK, CLINK, CLINK, CLINK, CLINK, CLINK, CLINK, CLINK, CLINK, CLINK, CLINK !!! (Double Eagles all.)
The Hobbits love birds. Thanks MK !!
<;-)
slingshot
(02/05/2002; 19:17:10 MDT - Msg ID: 69404)
Castle Front Door
We are now in the mist of a direct assault at their castles front door. They know that it is only a matter of time before we explode through their defense and our victory will be a bitter pill for them to swallow even if it is a short one. There are many battles to fight but this one will show they are not invincible! To the door! BOOM! BOOM! BOOM!
Slingshot
TownCrier
(02/05/2002; 19:19:15 MDT - Msg ID: 69405)
Highgrading from the mind of ANOTHER
http://www.usagold.com/GoldTrail/archives/ANOTHER1.htmlTwo excerpts for your consideration.
FIRST excerpt:

ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) Fri Oct 10 1997 17:26:
Yes, we could go into details about the LBMA mess. But why? They are in way over their heads and the final outcome is on it's way.

A big change in the gold market actually started last spring. You couldn't tell by the charts or news stories but it had the CB trading rooms going nuts. Up untill then they were using 3rd party transactions to sell, then the boomshell hit that the Merchant Banks were doing deals for 10 to 20 times what was offered! Well "boys will be boys" and someone is now stuck, big time! That's why "Big Trader" and his bunch closed out all paper and pulled in bullion. Don't worry about the CBs selling everything, the market is huge compared TO WHAT THEY HAVE! And Comex is nothing, if "only a silly game". Worldwide trading in gold could be cut in half and still equal all the metal in existance!

The CBs will have to sell outright now even as the currency price of gold starts to run away from them!

The market is changing now,,, it will go up but you will not be happy with the outcome. --end--

SECOND excerpt:

ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) Sun Oct 19 1997 17:26:
Where are my THOUGHTS leading?
...The Central Banks have known for quite some time the true value of gold in today's paper world. In a very real sense they are on our side. Let's take their side if you will. They are not dumb or stupid, in fact many of them are the best of the best! You see, the world grew up and ran away from them, totally out of control. It has left in it's wake a money system of colossal debt and political mismanagement. They know it is over.

We are all at a giant poker table and the CBs act as the dealer. One day soon the game will end and the players will try to cash in the chips. In that day the dealer will act in our own best interest. They will not pay out gold for the chips. The money system will start over, from scratch.

Also:
It is easy to know that gold could not have been traded for all oil sold. This was never the intent. They only wanted to pull a small amount out of circulation on a regular basis. Using a small amount of oil as a partial trading vehicle gold could be purchased in an all paper deal to hide it's price. As I said before, if they walked up to the plate and started buying outright it would run the price. It is working. They only need 200 million ozs. When the system breaks that gold would be worth all the oil in Arabia and then some.

The Asians are the problem, by buying up bullion worldwide and thru South Africa they created a default situation on all the paper for the oil / gold trade! Now the CBs are selling in the open to calm nerves but it's known that they will never sell enough. It was never their intent to provide the gold, only the backing until new mining technology could increase production. Over time the forward sales, such as ABX's should have worked. But LBMA went nuts with the game and the whole mess has now accelerated.--End--
Cavan Man
(02/05/2002; 19:40:47 MDT - Msg ID: 69406)
USAG Forum
Tomorrow is President Reagan's birthday. He will be 91. Happy Birthday Dutch; we owe the last 20 years or so of our prosperity in large measure to the economic policies of your administration.
darkhorse
(02/05/2002; 19:46:55 MDT - Msg ID: 69407)
(No Subject)
The cynical part of me keeps tappin away in the back of my head remindin me a correction is probably right around the corner, but I'm enjoyin the H-E-double hockey sticks out of this while it's here. Ya know, some of y'all are gonna need some Valium if it gets/stays over $300 into the weekend! Sheesh, "only" $300 and y'all are actin like Santa filled your stockings with everything on your wish list...y'all are gonna be incorrigible when it gets above $600/700/800! Like Andy Griffith says, "Y'all act like ya got some sense!" (big, BIG smile) I know I'll be walkin around just like it's any other day. (anybody that wants to move back so they don't get hit by the lightning bolts might wanna do it now!)
bob leppo
(02/05/2002; 19:51:05 MDT - Msg ID: 69408)
taking Comex delivery
My commodity broker (I am long June gold futures BTW) claims that he heard that today on the Comex in New York at least 5000 contracts (that would be 500,000 oz) of the expiring Feb 02 gold contracts were given delivery notices (first notice day) but chose to take delivery of the bullion rather than rolling over their contracts. He feels this is a large amount of futures that are taking delivery.
Cavan Man
(02/05/2002; 19:52:58 MDT - Msg ID: 69409)
@sector
Saw your post over at G-E regarding a meeting. Could you elaborate please. Thank you.
slingshot
(02/05/2002; 19:57:01 MDT - Msg ID: 69410)
Darkhorse
$300.00 GoldA correction is most likely. We have everything to win and little to lose. Lightning Bolts? Hope you don't live in Florida.
Slingshot
slingshot
(02/05/2002; 20:07:48 MDT - Msg ID: 69411)
Price of Gold
A thoughtWho would think that $2.00 in price would mean so much.
Slingshot
Siochain
(02/05/2002; 20:23:13 MDT - Msg ID: 69412)
Sobering :"The Panic Spreads"
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2002/0218/068.html%20Would that more read what is happening:
(Partial)
The Panic Spreads
Benjamin Fulford, Forbes Magazine, 02.18.02


You can no longer safely shrug off Japan's economic crisis. It just might drag the world into a depression.
The world--and even the previously sanguine Japanese--is now catching on to the fact that Japan's 12-year slump has deteriorated into a full-blown crisis, threatening a wild global ride. Falloffs in various indicators in the world's second-largest economy resemble the plunge of countries like the U.S. into the Great Depression of the 1930s.

What about the theory that Japan is so rich a nation that it can buy its way out of a financial collapse? After all, it is said, the huge debt overhang from the country's rotten banking system and the actuarial deceit of its postal- and insurer-based retirement systems is just Japan owing itself. This is not Russia or Argentina or Thailand.

No, it's not Russia or Argentina. It is potentially something far worse .......
sector
(02/05/2002; 20:27:40 MDT - Msg ID: 69413)
@cavan man Toungue-in-cheek
eom
CoBra(too)
(02/05/2002; 20:34:13 MDT - Msg ID: 69414)
@Siochain - It's potentially far worse ...
...though it could't affect the old US of A?

No way - we've got Al Greenspan to delay any problems for another day ...

Hey! - got your gold today?

cb2 - has and you?

slingshot
(02/05/2002; 20:40:25 MDT - Msg ID: 69415)
CoBra(too)
Good to see ya!
Slingshot
Canuck
(02/05/2002; 20:52:36 MDT - Msg ID: 69416)
Contemplating
I went to the local gold 'store' today and bought a handful of Sovereign's, a mixed bag, S.A., British, Australian.

I played with them during the course of the day, bouncing them around in my pocket, pulling them out for an inspection every half hour and drew a blank.

Why are these coins considered valuable? A notation implies that they are worth $100 US. Seems very simple, I give the man $100 and he gives me the coin. He is selling, he must figure the $100 more valuable. I am buying, I better hope the coin is more valuable today, or at least tomorrow.

Why do I feel the coin will 'appreciate'? Will the coin 'appreciate', or do I feel the coin will not depreciate'?

I hold the South African coin at the moment, 1925, EF, KM-21, I am not sure what that means, 8 grams of gold I am told, about a quarter ounce. A hundred dollars buys about $75 in gold, plus a numismatic premium, plus taxes.

During the Christmas holidays I bought an ounce or three of gold bullion, $470 or so an ounce (CDN), I paid the man 470, he gave me the little bar.

What does this mean?

Tomorrow is a big day, gold cracks 300 or it doesn't. Are the 'players' in control? Gold is going one of three ways tomorrow, up, down or sideways, I don't know of any other possibility; 298 is a tough nut to crack. Past 298 is 320, probably quick as a whistle, 320 is 340, and then hard to say.

The 'spot' will be interesting to watch tomorrow, maybe flat as a pancake and then, maybe after noon, whomp, the decision will be made, big up, big down.

Did you buy physical today? Did you put your 'money' on 'the line' today?

Are you playing the paper game or are you a Physical Gold Advocate?

The moment of truth is upon you, can you handle it?

Canuck.
Canuck
(02/05/2002; 20:56:39 MDT - Msg ID: 69417)
@ slingshot
...and that's why they call it resistance, past this and we attempt to conquer '99, fail this and.........I am afraid, 3 shots at 298 means............
darkhorse
(02/05/2002; 20:59:07 MDT - Msg ID: 69418)
@Canuck
I played my hand this week also...haven't got them yet, but in a couple-three days it oughta sound like...


CLINK, CLINK, CLINK, CLINK, CLINK

(big, BIG smile)
Canuck
(02/05/2002; 21:10:54 MDT - Msg ID: 69419)
Tomorrow
Australia, Hong Kong, Japan and London for the most part have been following NY's lead. They won't make a call up or down for the last few night's. They are pussy-whipped.

NY is going to make the call, big up or big down tomorrow. I still don't know the relevance of the 12:01 Easten warp in NY but it does mean the market thins out considerably; London out of the mix.

To be sure, if gold is bombarded tomorrow, IMHO, this Enron thing will be band-aided 'by hook-or-by-crook' and the bears are back in control. It might be temporary, end of 1Q02 (earnings early April) will be the final straw in this episode.

Tomorrow is critical, (no shit Batman) we blow resistance, or we don't.

End of story.

Canuck.

P.S. Three guesses what we hope!
Max Rabbitz
(02/05/2002; 21:17:17 MDT - Msg ID: 69420)
The War is not yet won ...yet remember this?
This day is called the feast of Crispian:
He that outlives this day, and comes safe home,
Will stand a tip-toe when the day is named,
And rouse him at the name of Crispian.
He that shall live this day, and see old age,
Will yearly on the vigil feast his neighbours,
And say 'To-morrow is Saint Crispian:'
Then will he strip his sleeve and show his scars.
And say 'These wounds I had on Crispin's day.'
Old men forget: yet all shall be forgot,
But he'll remember with advantages
What feats he did that day: then shall our names.
Familiar in his mouth as household words
Harry the king, Bedford and Exeter,
Warwick and Talbot, Salisbury and Gloucester,
Be in their flowing cups freshly remember'd.
This story shall the good man teach his son;
And Crispin Crispian shall ne'er go by,
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be remember'd;
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother; be he ne'er so vile,
This day shall gentle his condition:
And gentlemen in England now a-bed
Shall think themselves accursed they were not here,
And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks
That fought with us upon Saint Crispin's day.

From Shakespear's Henry V speech on eve of the
Battle of Agincourt, 25 October 1415
Won by the direct ancestor of the citizen rifleman.

Max: With swords of Gold raised high they will have no choice but to acknowledge the truth. Old scars will be as badges of honor.

Inspired by MK's earlier message.
Gandalf the White
(02/05/2002; 21:34:16 MDT - Msg ID: 69421)
From: The Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM)
http://www.tocom.or.jp/souba/souba_e.htmlAs of Feb 6, 2002 13:30 JST
Gold
Month Last1 Open High Low Current Change2 Volume
Feb 1,248 1,286 1,290 1,280 1,287 +39 1,745
Apr 1,245 1,283 1,285 1,280 1,285 +40 4,582
Jun 1,243 1,281 1,283 1,280 1,283 +40 5,068
Aug 1,236 1,276 1,276 1,276 1,276 +40 1,210
Oct 1,235 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 +40 2,476
Dec 1,234 1,274 1,274 1,274 1,274 +40 25,684
Total 40,765
Minimum Price Fluctuation: yen/gram
====
LIMIT UP is 40 Yen !!!
CAN this be a PREVIEW for the COMEX ?
<;-)
Waverider
(02/05/2002; 22:26:26 MDT - Msg ID: 69422)
Canuck and Canuck Gold
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/hamilton061101.htmlGreetings from the balmy west coast, and thank you for the information. Your post sparked the memory of an article I read last summer (see link) regarding the relationship b/t the POG and XAU. It is yet another excellent read by Adam Hamilton. He outlines two quick and dirty valuation proxies for gold stocks. First, the "220 spread" between the POG and the XAU. If the spread is greater than 220, the XAU is considered undervalued, and if it is narrower, overvalued. For instance, 298.00-220=78 which would suggest the XUA (67.84 today) is undervalued relative to the POG. (Please read the article for the detailed discussion, cautions, and limitations of the "220 spread"). Second, he discusses the "golden ratio" (right you are Canuck). The average value of the XAU over the past 18 years divided by the POG appears to be around 0.25, (Gold/XAU ratio 4:1). Today, the implied XAU is 298.00 x 0.25 = 74.5 which again suggests that the actual XAU is undervalued. Hamilton presents very interesting correlations between the implied XAU and actual XAU. Over the same 18-year period ('84-'01), when the actual XAU moved higher than the implied XAU, there was a subsequent sell-off. His data suggests that when the XAU is 20% overvalued in 50 day moving average terms, it is a good time to sell. He concludes that the XAU is a fairly "good" indicator of future spot price activity.

I found this quite interesting. I will start keeping a data file on the daily POG and XAU and run some correlations and graphs over the next several months.

BTW: I wake up to the CBC morning business report (Justin Steale, Calgary) @ 0545. This morning he said that investors are "moving into Gold as a safe haven" AND tomorrow's topic of discussion - "Why you should sell bank shares and buy gold"...WHOOOAAA...on CBC? I must say that I'm finding most of his "news" old hat as we get it first right here (thanks BB et al). Cheers,

Waverider
Waverider
(02/05/2002; 22:43:50 MDT - Msg ID: 69423)
Uponroof: Economic Data Set
http://www.hussman.com/hussman/html/datapage.htmHave a look at this - you'll find Money Supply data (M1,M2 etc.) from 1959 to Dec. 2001. Is that what you're looking for? Cheers,
Waverider
Mr Gresham
(02/05/2002; 22:50:58 MDT - Msg ID: 69424)
I love it...
http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/daily_graphs.cgiwhen the horizontal lines get all scrunched together. (Well, it looks like they've also pencilled in some overhead room, into the 300s.)

And while you're visiting the POG chart, why not look at the other time they got REALLY scrunched -- the historic chart starts in 1999 anyway, so all you have to do is put in "September" and then pick your date.

If you want to see really low numbers still in the chart, put in "22". If you want to see it really starting to reach up, put in "24". If you want to see what a real Spike Day looks like, "27"s your call.

BTW, one thought on enthusiasm over "small" upturns. It is not WE who have made $3 and $4 and $5 moves significant. It is the controllers (or short position defenders) who've staked everything on keeping gold's volatility low-low-low. And making sure there is never anything standing out to get the public's attention. Thus they have smoothed the gold price charts to a level of daily calmness that I think would prove unprecedented in "commodity" or any other financial markets, were such a study to be made. A study in outlying anti-volatilities. A study in calm, and ultimately in the intended rock-solid stability of The Dollar.

Out of such calm, a $5 or $6 move looks like a radical break in the lock on gold moves, by whomever, however.
Black Blade
(02/05/2002; 22:57:45 MDT - Msg ID: 69425)
Market Wrap Up - Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

The Big 3 -- Hedge Funds on Methamphetamine and Steroids

Today the nation's top three banks, J.P. Morgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup have become "The Big Three" in the derivatives market. The three banks combined have a derivative book mounting to close to $46 trillion! This amount is equivalent to 90% of the nation's top banks derivative book and nearly half the outstanding derivatives around the globe. Our nation's top banks are beginning to look, run and act like hedge funds on methamphetamine and steroids. If you want to see into the future where future problems lay, look no further than these three banks. They have disaster written all over them.

Daschle Stomps Recovery Package

In other news today the economic recovery scenario was dealt a severe blow by news that Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle said the Senate will end consideration of an economic stimulus package tomorrow. The Senate leader has become the President's nemesis blocking all pieces of important legislation on judicial appointments, energy, economic stimulus and national security. According to Daschle, the President's stimulus package is DOA. Daschle's statement is one more straw that puts the economy at risk. Monetary policy has been unable to prevent a recession or stop a stock market slide. Now the market will have to worry over political obstruction. With the consumer tapped out and business profits hemorrhaging, the markets were looking for fiscal stimulus coming from Washington. Now it looks less likely, which means the recovery will have to be led by debt-strapped consumers.

Gold -- The One Shining Star A signal that trouble lies ahead for the markets and economy was the rise in the price of gold to a two-year record closing at nearly close to $300 an ounce at $299.10. Gold prices soared on expectations of reduced supply from mining companies. Today's environment of low interest rates no longer makes it profitable to lease or hedge gold. The gold leasing game has come to an end. Now many miners are looking to unwind their hedges, which could drive the price of gold even higher. The unwinding of hedges added to growing worldwide demand and supply deficits means gold stands a good chance of emerging from its decades-long bear market. Add supply deficits to the current problems in the financial markets with earnings or the lack thereof, and gold prices could continue to soar. Of even greater worry for Washington and Wall Street is the growing disillusionment with equities and an ebbing confidence in the financial system. Once the public loses confidence in paper, the financial markets are headed for trouble. Another problem for investors is to choose their gold investments wisely. Companies who have hedged their gold production may actually lose out on gold's rally, and in fact may be at risk of losing money. A recent example was the problems of Ashanti. Investors would do well to avoid shares of hedged companies such as Barrick, which have hedged forward many years of production.


Black Blade: On the mark. Tomorrow's action on the stock market could get "interesting" as the Enron hearings continue, how the "Daschle Dip" is interpreted, and how overnight markets react. So far tonight Asian markets are mixed and the Gold price is flat. If Gold can get over $300.00/oz. and establish a base, then we could see some real fireworks. So far that looks less and less likely (for tomorrow at least). More earnings (losses) reports are due tomorrow and it is expected to look "Grim". The statistical massage practiced by the BLS has not gone unnoticed by many. Forbes had an article on the bogus drop in the unemployment rate this last week. These certainly are "interesting Times".
Gandalf the White
(02/05/2002; 23:16:46 MDT - Msg ID: 69426)
GREAT FIND, Lady Waverider !!!
http://www.boj.or.jp/en/siryo/stat/te020206_f.htmEveryone MUST see this Link from HUSSMAN !!
Wonder what Bank interest rates are available for the Yen ?
Think that this is why GOLD was "LIMIT UP" on the TOCOM today ? Certainly would make my choice easy!!
---
Hussman DATA for every need !!!
<;-)
Strad Master
(02/06/2002; 00:37:08 MDT - Msg ID: 69427)
Illuminating the Enron debacle.
All: Since most of us here at this esteemed forum are slightly ahead of the financial curve, the information in the following article should come as no surprise. (I know nothing about the author but he certainly seems to be very well informed.) I've not seen it all put so succincly before. Despite being rather long, it is a good and important read. It will be interesting and a little disconcerting to watch the Enron execs be trotted out to the gallows when all they were doing was what everyone else in the biz was doing. It's long been my suspicion that Enron is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to inflated stock prices, and its collapse will make a very convenient scapegoat when the larger house of cards implodes.









The Enron Game

When Texas cowboys ruled television and the movies, a common plot concerned
stampedes triggered by the scent of water wafting over the thirsty herd. O, the
pained voice of the hapless director charged to evoke the shift of a bovine multitude
from dehydrated indifference to self-destructive hysteria: "Is this kind of �character
development� they expect of me?" Today, such a passage to bovine panic could be
modeled on reaction of the media and business and political commentators to the
Enron debacle.

Could it be � O heresy of heresies! � that Enron did not fail because of fraud? Could
it be that the worst its accountants, attorneys and related professionals � and
perhaps even its officers and directors � are guilty of is lack of imagination or
maybe mere negligence? It's very hard to say from most of the media coverage. But,
unfortunately for the orthodox, the most likely outcome is that exactly this heresy is
the truth.

Let me go further and hypothesize an entirely different scenario for Enron's failure,
which I will defend below:

1.Enron's stock price soared because it had a fashionable business plan, not
because it had earnings. So the alleged earnings-boosting schemes are mostly
irrelevant to explaining why the stock soared. Simply put, for a long time the stock
market did not care about profit where companies in Enron's categories,
e-commerce and broadband, were concerned.

2. Enron's financial statements were not opaque enough to fool any serious
financial analyst who cared about what they might conceal. True, the financial
statements were not easy to read � even for professionals. But many professionals
were perfectly well aware that the notes in Enron's financials were red flags as
possible earnings holes � if you were the odd person who cared about earnings for
e-commerce and broadband companies. There were always Enron skeptics, those
skeptics were not silenced, and their views were known and ignored by the same
analysts now claiming Enron and Arthur Andersen fooled them. "[T]]he company
was a master of obfuscation in its financial statements� But a determined
investor looking closely at its financial statements would have found that even in
the California power crisis, when energy costs were in the stratosphere and
profits should have rolled in, Enron was earning only one-half of 1 percent on its
sales." How 287 Turned Into 7: Lessons in Fuzzy Math, By Gretchen Morgenson,
NYT January 20, 2002. (emphasis supplied).

3. When the stock market fell out of love with e-commerce and broadband, Enron's
stock price fell. Also, the people concerned with both debt and equities on Wall
Street began to again care about whether even e-commerce and broadband
companies had earnings. So they started looking at those financial notes. Enron's
credit rating was supported by its high stock price and by the lack of interest in its
earnings, even by creditors. So when the stock price fell and the relevance of
earnings rose, Enron's credit was impaired.

4. Unlike other e-commerce and broadband companies, Enron needed a high
credit rating to continue much of its businesses � especially trading and derivatives
investing. So, while, say, e-Toys, could just waste away until its equity proceeds
were consumed, Enron did not have that luxury. It's fall had to be more spectacular.

5. Therefore, failure and bankruptcy.

Not a pretty picture, and plenty of villains. But notice that the villains aren't the same
as the ones in the "fraud" scenario. In my scenario, the villains are the stock
analysts, journalists, hedge fund managers, bankers and investors who drove the
stock price up and ignored the need for earnings to support a top corporate credit
rating � the same people who drove up the stock price for, and provided credit to, all
those OTHER e-commerce and broadband companies.

What about all those "special purpose companies," "offshore partnership"
transactions and other devices? I continue my heresy; here I stand, I can say no
other! The bulk of Wall Street's financial analysts following Enron either knew about
the "special purpose companies," "offshore partnership" transactions and any other
devices or knew that they could find out but didn't care to do so. For example, a
not-often-cited paragraph in the so-called "whistleblower" letter of Sharren Watkins
puts it this way: "The related party footnote tries to explain these transactions. Don't
you think that several interested companies, be they stock analysts, journalists,
hedge fund managers, etc., [have] their smartest people � poring over that footnote
disclosure right now? I can just hear the discussions � �it looks like they booked a
$500 million gain from this related party company and I think, from all the
undecipherable half-page on Enron's contingent contributions to this related party
entity, I think the related party entity is capitalized with Enron stock.�" So this "whistle
blower" letter says that a smart analyst could see what had been done. The media
choose to focuses on the rest of this paragraph, in which Ms. Watkins rails that
such an analyst would have rejected the disclosure because it was "too fraudulent".
But if it was disclosed, it wasn't fraudulent. So no analysts would reject such
disclosure.

That Enron's financials were complicated was as well-known to the market as was
the fact that the public was being assured by some of the most sophisticated
analysts on Wall Street that they did, in fact, understand Enron - even if the public
did not. As FORTUNE magazine put it in March, 2001: "How exactly does Enron
make its money?... [T]he numbers that Enron does present are often extremely
complicated. Even quantitatively minded Wall Streeters who scrutinize the company
for a living think so. 'If you figure it out, let me know,' laughs credit analyst Todd
Shipman at S&P. 'Do you have a year?' asks Ralph Pellecchia, Fitch's credit analyst,
in response to the same question." Is Enron Overpriced? By Bethany McLean,
FORTUNE, March 5, 2001. It is particularly worth noting that Messrs. Pellecchia and
Shipman were not stock analysts - they were credit analysts at those very credit
rating agencies whose grant of a high credit rating was essential to Enron's
continuing its business. Such analysts are empowered and required to ask
questions and demand answers entirely unrestricted by any limitations placed on
the Enron financial statements by Arthur Andersen or Enron. Their responses to the
FORTUNE questions do not indicate any anxiety at their level of understanding of
Enron's financial statements. For example, there is no hint that these credit agency
representatives were prepared to lower Enron's credit rating unless those
"incomprehensible" financial statement notes were cleared up. Why not? Most likely
because those notes were, in fact, comprehended after considerable effort. The
teaser to the FORTUNE article sums it up nicely: "It's in a bunch of complex
businesses. Its financial statements are nearly impenetrable. So why is Enron
trading at such a huge multiple?" Fair questions, which Wall Street professionals,
especially credit analysts are trained and paid well to understand and answer - and
almost always do. Those credit agency professionals aren't and weren't stupid or
lazy - not the great majority of them, anyway. Further, these agencies are experts at
understanding "off-balance-sheet" transactions. And they certainly weren't on the
take from Enron or in any Enron-induced conspiracy. Rather, it is much more likely
that they obtained as much information as they thought useful and sufficient, that
they DID understand the "off-balance-sheet" transactions disclosure in the Enron
financial statements - and didn't regard those transactions as dangerous, improper
or improperly reported. And those professionals probably did all that in good faith.
All of which strongly suggests that Enron's disclosure wasn't all that bad.

Nor is it likely that Arthur Andersen conspired maliciously against Enron's investors.
It is far more likely that Arthur Andersen viewed these "special purpose companies,"
"offshore partnership" transactions and other devices as aggressive, but within the
rules. In fact, while many observers have adopted a high dudgeon "obvious fraud"
view of these transactions, buried in some of the better reporting is a much more
nuanced approach. "Enron used plenty of other special-purpose entities, and it
appears that some of them were just as misleading as the one Andersen now
cites. They apparently conformed to accounting rules, but they did not "present
fairly," as the auditor's letter says, Enron's real financial situation." The Distorted
Numbers at Enron, By Floyd Norris, NYT December 14, 2001 (emphasis
supplied). So which is it? Were these transactions "obviously fraudulent" or did they
conform to applicable accounting rules? Clearly an accounting firm has a separate
obligation to determine whether financial statement "fairly present" the financial
status of the company. But such a determination is an art, not a science. It is much
more likely that Arthur Andersen decided in good faith that the financial statements
did provide enough disclosure, certainly enough disclosure for the uses of financial
professionals. But as discussed above, most of those professionals just didn't
care. Later, Arthur Andersen changed its mind and required the earnings to be
restated. Unfortunately, by that time the markets had started to care about earnings
again.

Understanding any scandal generally benefits from a review of the incentives the
scandal creates for those who are speaking about it. Those who speak often, early
or emphatically, normally have a definite interest or agenda, often concealed in what
they say. Neither having nor concealing such an interest or agenda needs be
wrong. But knowing the incentives helps isolate probable interests and agendas,
and those often limit or skew the information being conveyed.

Enron's huge failure is absolute and undeniable. But few of the causes of Enron's
failure are absolute or undeniable. Rather, the causes involve human discretion �
first on the parts of Enron's officers and professionals, and now on the part of those
passing judgment on Enron's operatives with the benefit of much hindsight. And
that's the rub when it comes to incentives. Enron's huge failure creates powerful
incentives for those judging Enron now � incentives at least as powerful as the
incentives imposed on the officers and professionals who sought to keep Enron
going when the questionable deals were done. Specifically, there is a very strong
incentive for most financial analysts, accountants, financial reporters, regulators
and especially politicians, to construe Enron's transactions in the harshest light,
and a very strong dis-incentive for such people to directly defend a loser like Enron.
All of these players benefit much more from either directly condemning Enron or
attempting to distinguish Enron from other enterprises.

On the political front, Democrats are excited and Republicans are scared. "The
dynamic over Enron cannot be that Democrats are against Enron and for reform,
and we're defending Enron and against reform," said one strategist who is close to
the White House but who would not allow his name to be used." In Shift, Bush
Assails Enron Over Handling of Collapse By David E. Sanger with David Barboza,
NY Times January 23, 2002.

In practice, no particular fact seems to support the full weight of any particular
serious accusation against Enron's professionals. Criticisms resemble a dash
across a partially frozen lake, with the argument leaping from chunk to chunk, never
pausing long on any particular fragment. Some of the arguments are discussed
specifically below.

It is worth beginning with the powerful, all-purpose smear that has been getting
much use recently: "It smells bad. Whatever the particulars turn out to be, it just
smells bad."

But does Enron really have the smell one expects in a good financial scandal?
Consider:

Enron's board of directors was of very high quality, and relatively independent of
management.

This board was reportedly kept informed of the practices now found to be so
"obviously" improper on the part of Enron's critics.

Members of the board seem to have benefited little from the alleged chicanery they
approved (at least in comparison with the risk they were creating for themselves),
and in some cases lost quite a lot when the stock collapsed. In addition, their
careers and reputations have now been permanently marred, at least.

Enron used Arthur Andersen as its auditor, the firm considered to be the best and
most independent of the large national accounting firms. Arthur Andersen approved
the now-notorious "special purpose companies" and "offshore partnership"
transactions whose revelation led directly to Enron's demise, and certified Enronagoon in Baj<� ��<���d just
prio<�x crossing over to the Atlantic for the Faroe Islands whale campaign.
The Ocean Warrior's executive staff sat down with National Park personnel
and in short order hammered out a provisional joint patrol agreement. By
August, despite the tenuous nature of communications between Ecuador and
Washington State, a final agreement had been worked out, and preparations to
make the Edward Abbey (since re-christened Sirenian under her Canadian
registry) ready for her first year of Galapagos duty were under way.



Patience pays. Sirenian is almost ready for her five-year tour of duty to
help the National Park Authority clamp down on illegal commercial fishing
operations within 40 miles of the islands. The commercial fishing ban has
been in effect since 1997, but is regularly violated by the huge Ecuadorian
fishing fleet, foreign vessels, and independent operators. Heavy damage is
being done by longliners going after billfish and sharks. A series of
coastal "no take" zones were established for the Marine Reserve this year,
and must be enforced.



These will be the first conservation patrols of the Galapagos by a foreign
vessel ever permitted by the Ecuadorian government. All we need now is your
support, and the Sea Shepherd Galapagos Conservation Patrols will become a
reality.








CONTACT:

Sea Shepherd International

Tel: 1-360-370-5500 Fax: 1-360-370-5501

E-mail:
Strad Master
Whoa!!! What happened?
Sorry about that!All: I have no idea how that little unplanned trip to the Galapagos Islands got stuck in there! Really bizarre! Here, though, is the continuation of that article from a little before where it left off.


Members of the board seem to have benefited little from the alleged chicanery they
approved (at least in comparison with the risk they were creating for themselves),
and in some cases lost quite a lot when the stock collapsed. In addition, their
careers and reputations have now been permanently marred, at least.

Enron used Arthur Andersen as its auditor, the firm considered to be the best and
most independent of the large national accounting firms. Arthur Andersen approved
the now-notorious "special purpose companies" and "offshore partnership"
transactions whose revelation led directly to Enron's demise, and certified Enron's
financial statements. Further, not a single employee of Arthur Andersen or Enron
ever went to any regulator with a tale of fraud prior to the bankruptcy. Is that what one
expects where fraud is pervasive and obvious as Enron's critics claim?

Arthur Andersen's procedures were themselves subject to review by another "Big
Five" accounting firm, which did not find those procedures lacking.

Enron's attorneys were Vincent & Elkins, one of the best law firms in the country.
Vincent & Elkins apparently provided "true sale" opinion letters which were
necessary to allow the accounting treatment Enron and Arthur Andersen gave
"special purpose companies" and "offshore partnership" transactions to go
through.

Enron's principle lenders were noted for their sophistication: Citibank and JP
Morgan. Each bank now claims hundreds of millions of dollars in exposure to
Enron � although they may have made money on Enron even allowing for this
exposure. Each also claims it did not know about Enron's irregularities and did not
foresee the coming collapse, even though their credit agreements with Enron
entitled them to inspection and audit rights far in excess of those of ordinary
investors, including stockholders. It is also worth keeping in mind that both of these
banks (as well as every large investment bank) fully understand the nature and
risks of "off balance sheet" transactions and structure because they have extensive
departments that create "off balance sheet" products which employ all of the
devices Enron's questionable investments employed.

To survive accounting scrutiny and warrant "true sale� opinions, each questionable
Enron transaction would normally have been supported by a formal appraisal of the
value of the property transferred to the "special purpose company" and "offshore
partnership." If these appraisals were created in good faith by seasoned
professionals using standard appraisal measure (all of which is normally
required), it is difficult to see how the transactions could possibly be as "obviously"
improper as Enron's critics now claim.

Does any of this "smell" the way a scandal should smell?

To conclude that Enron's fraud had the scope its critics now allege, complicity of
Arthur Andersen and a conspiratorial intent on the part of Enron's own officers is
only the beginning. One must then assume that each member of the board of
directors was willing to risk his or her personal fortune, career, reputation and
honor � all for compensation reportedly of less than half a million dollars per year.
Then one must contend with the bizarre fact that not one single member of that
board of directors at any time resigned in protest or under suspicious
circumstances � and no former member of that board has come forward to
date. Are we to assume that ALL of the board members saw what was so
"obviously" fraudulent and then without exception elected to keep quiet? Was
this a board of directors of an American public company or the Soviet Politburo
under Stalin?

For the "fraud" hypothesis to be correct, hundreds � if not thousands � of
employees and professionals at many levels of society had to be in the conspiracy
and had to keep quiet for years, notwithstanding the constant threat of exposure to
the Securities and Exchange Commission, Citibank and JP Morgan � the latter two
of which had extensive contractual rights to audit and investigate Enron.

Then there were reviews and investigations by the credit rating agencies � which
were certainly not restricted by what Arthur Andersen put into the financial
statements. These are the same agencies that rate derivatives and off balance seet
structure every single day. We are asked to believe they were fooled by
incomprehensible financial notes.

We are then further asked to assume that Citibank and JP Morgan (and the
investment banks employing the financial analysts who were supposedly "misled"
by Enron's "opaque" financial statements), banks which maintain large staffs
creating "off balance sheet" products these banks sell on a regular basis didn't
know how to analyze them or realize the risks they created.

Once we've digested that, we must move on to believe that the appraisers used to
certify the questionable transactions were somehow compromised to the point of
risking their reputations - even criminal sanctions - alonmg with all the other
professionals involved.

And let us not forget that we are asked to accept that all the ultra-sophisticated
people involved in the above were reduced to fools and/or charlatans even though a
distinct but vocal minority of analysts and other Enron critics � including one highly
visible analyst resident right there in Houston � regularly complained that Enron
was a house of cards.

In an unintentionally hilarious article, Investors Lured to Enron Deals by Inside
DataBy Kurt Eichenwald, NYT January 25, 2002, the New York Times now seeks to
add to the growing vastness of the conspiracy some of the largest investment
banks in the country. Essentially accusing Merrill, Lynch and other banks of fraud
and violation of insider trading laws, the Times portenteously proclaims : "The
disclosures created conflicts for Wall Street firms, as well. For example, the
investment banking arm of Merrill Lynch & Company, which underwrote the LJM2
offering, was aware of the off-balance-sheet figures for Enron; indeed, Merrill's
name is on the cover page of the offering containing the data." So the Times thinks
that Merrill "was aware of the off-balance-sheet figures for Enron," thought the
figures were fraudulent and underwrote the offering ANYWAY? It is also worth noting
that this article is discussing a private placement to very wealthy and influential
investors - exactly the kind of investors who would have the power to really damage
Merrill if the kind of thing the Times is alleging were true. So we are asked to believe
that Merrill is financially irrational and self destructive, as well as perhaps criminals.
None of it very likely. While the Times seems not to get the point, Merrill's treatment
of the "off-balance-sheet figures" is just more evidence that the Enron "off-balance
sheet figures" were NOT viewed as improper at all by most people who reviewed or
dealt with them. Those people may have been wrong. But it is very unlikely they
were all malicious and conspiratorial.

In a subsequent article about the LJM2 partnership, the Times appears to come
unglued from its accusations of fraud and insider trading. Addressing that
partnership, the Times admits in its confused excitement: "But did the [LJM2]
arrangement � actually violate the nation's securities laws and regulations? That is
far more difficult to answer, legal scholars say." A Fog Over Enron, and the Legal
Landscape By Diana B. Henriques with Kurt Eichenwald, NYT January 27, 2002. In
fact, the January 27 article breathlessly trolls for negative, condemnatory comment
from the gathering of legal scholars it covers. But, curiously, not a single one of the
persons quoted in that article actually says that anything Enron did - regardless of
whether it touched LJM2 - was clearly illegal. This appears to be a surprise to the
Times reporters. The article finally settles for assertions that Congress will surely
act to fix the problem through legislation. So it comes to this: Times coverage of
LJM2 began with accusations of fraud and insider trading and progresses to
assertions that Congress must act to stop "improper" acts which nobody seems to
be able or willing to say were clearly illegal. Perhaps a microcosm of the entire
Enron fiasco? One can almost hear the Times reporters "moo."

At some point, one just has to say "ENOUGH!" "NO!" "I will not believe that
thousands of people had fraudulent intent and maintained a years long conspiracy
virtually doomed to fail!" It has been correctly said that "A foolish consistency is the
hobgoblin of little minds." To which one might add that the ready imputation of
conspiracy and maliciousness is the most foolish consistency of all. It is certainly a
delicious irony that the same herd mentality that created the idiotic run up in the
fortunes of profitless e-commerce and broadband companies, including Enron, in
defiance of all finance wisdom should now swing so savagely against those it
formerly, irrationally, blessed. But it's a shame that the real villains are not caught.
Indeed, they are now impersonating victims.

"To understand the strange world of Enron accounting, think of a carnival fun
house." The Distorted Numbers at Enron, By Floyd Norris, NYT December 14,
2001.

Yes. Think of a carnival fun house. But the fun didn't really start until AFTER the
bankruptcy!
- Robert Musil,
Black Blade
Strad Master
I know what you mean. I posted a long post here once (The Rise and Fall of Hydrocarbon Man) and the same result - yep, you guessed it - Green Peace. Anyone who has a long post should cut and paste segments and note them as #1, #2, etc. Though a trip to the Galapagos woul be interesting. Cheers!

- Black Blade
Black Blade
Gold Lower Silver Higher
http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metalsGold is down a buck, however, Silver is up 12 cents. Still could be a tough day for Wall Street as the Enronitis epidemic sweeps through the markets.
Black Blade
European Markets Getting Trashed!
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?uEuropean markets are awash in red. There are banking concerns as huge writeoffs on an Irish bank is sending shock waves across Europe. US market indice futures are sharply lower suggesting a possible sharp drop on Wall Street at the open. Meanwhile Gold has moved higher and could be poised to move on Enronitis worries and as CNBC's Ted David and Bob Pisani said investors could be seeking "a flight to quality". This morning's market action should be lively.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
Cisco's reliance on 'pro forma' accounting draws investor scrutiny
http://www.msnbc.com/news/700154.asp?0si=-
Snippit:

Feb. 5 - Despite the Cisco Systems' repeated warnings that it can't tell when its business will improve, its investors continue to bet on a return to double-digit profit growth. So Wall Street will be listening carefully for any word on the outlook for increased spending by corporate America on the company's telecommunications equipment. And with corporate-accounting practices under a microscope, they'll be looking even more closely at the numbers the company reports.

Black Blade: Cisco earnings (actually losses) are revealed today. Unfortunately the focus will be on Pro Forma earnings and not net losses. Yep, they are still bleeding cash and unprofitable. I guess as long as they "beat the street". Hmmm�

BTW, Gold just poked above $300.00/oz. as just mentioned on CNBC.
Grubstaker
Yesterday's GOLD "run"..
RUETERS;
The deep-seated concerns about banks, the struggling stock market and growing pessimism over reforms touched off a rush for gold in Tokyo on Wednesday as Japanese searched for a safe haven for their cash in the face of a possible financial crisis.
The Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) was swamped with large buy orders from Japanese investors on Wednesday, overloading and delaying gold trade until the midday break.
Prices soared when trading began. The December 2002 gold contract surged by its daily price limit of 40 yen per gram to trade at 1,274 throughout the day -- the highest price for TOCOM benchmark gold on a continuation basis since October 5, 1998.

"The public has been putting its money into very, very low-return, low-risk assets," said Peter Tasker, head of Arcus Fund Management in Tokyo. "Now they are told that low-risk assets are high risk, but there is still no return."

ANOTHER S&P WARNING

Ratings agency Standard & Poor's warned it may downgrade Japan's banks again, only a day after cutting the ratings of seven major banks and keeping their rating outlook on negative.

LeSin
Gold Breaks $300

From Kitco Gold

Date: 02/06/02
Time (EST):06:48
Bid: 300.80
Ask: 301.30
Change from NY Close: +1.11


Simply Me
POG just broke $300 !!!!
In the Tennessee vernacular...
Yeeee-haaaw!!!

Goo-o-o-o-d Morning, USAGold Posters!
golden granny
Black Blade
Gold Breaks $303.80/oz.
Gold is even getting notice on CNBC this morning. Also the POG is flashed in the lower right-hand corner of the TV. Meanwhile, the market indices look horrible this morning as the "Daschle Dip" extends into this morning's trading. Europe is getting hammered on banking fears.

- Black Blade
The Invisible Hand
Fifty bucks a day
Is that not what A/TG predicted?
Grubstaker
Capitulation in TOKYO..
TOKYO, Feb 5 (Reuters) - The asset management unit of Nikko Cordial Corp saw 268.6 billion yen ($2.03 billion) take flight in January from three investment funds containing bonds issued by failed Enron Corp ENRNQ.PK, data from Lipper Asia Ltd showed on Tuesday.

That marks a plunge of 65 percent in the combined balance of the three "Chance" funds at Nikko Asset Management Co Ltd since December, as investors rushed to pull money from the funds after they fell below face value.

The withdrawals are a new blow for the nation's third-biggest brokerage, already hit hard by a flurry of cancellations in its money management fund (MMF), which also contains Enron bonds.

Investors withdrew 3.76 trillion yen from the MMF -- or 95 percent of the fund -- in November and December.

Until the Enron debacle, MMFs were considered a safe, high-yielding alternative to bank deposits.

Analysts have said the failure of the U.S. energy trader in December could hinder Nikko Cordial's strategy of broadening its client base to ensure stable retail earnings.

Last week, Nikko Cordial, which is owned 20 percent by U.S. financial giant Citigroup C.N, reported a group net loss of 29.65 billion yen for the nine months through December as a flagging stock market took a toll on retail revenue.

That is a sharp turnaround from a profit of 46.79 billion yen a year earlier and suggested Nikko Cordial would report a loss for the year ending March 31.

Shares in Nikko ended down 3.11 percent at 405 yen on Tuesday, compared with a 1.62 percent slip in the Nikkei average .N225. Nikko shares have lost 64 percent in value since their 2001 peak last May.

Lipper is the global funds subsidiary of Reuters Group RTR.

how long will the "big 3" be able to stop the tide. My bet is that it won't be very long before this shot rings around the entire planet. Physical GOLD held in your hand (and locked away safely afterwards) is the ONLY safe haven in this storm..
Black Blade
Nice Chart
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.htmlWhen I see this chart I can only think that the Brits sold off there birth right for a pitance for depreciating currency. The people must be proud of Captain Tony and Eddie George. Hmmm...

- Black Blade
Black Blade
Now at $307.10/oz. up $8.00
You just gotta know that Munky and Elephant at Barrick are just getting a bit nervous about now. The hedgers must be shaking with fear the higher the POG goes. I see a lotta shareholder lawsuits in their future.

- Black Blade
Goldfly
Oh my
GOSH
OK, the question is: Why are they letting it rise?

Can't wait for the NY open.
Black Blade
Gold at $308.30 (CNBC)
Now they even have Liz Clayman saying Gold is "a flight to quality". Hmmm...
LeSin
Optional PM's Price Site - Kitco Will be Down For Sure or Very Slow Today
http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
Gold @ 7:20AM
old Spot (XAUUSDO)
Market Open High Low Last Change Time
Index 297.9 306.8 290.1 306.5 +8.6 7:20AM

Relax and breath deeply people. We should not start to celebrate until Au is well past $500 - Seriously that may only take a few hours/days/months, yes? We do watch the market together, yes? BIG SMILE Very BIG SMILE.

Good night from the Wonderful Land of OZ Down Under, I have done my bit, now, you lads and lassies bring her home.
Cheers "S"
Black Blade
Bank Hit by $750 Million Suspected Fraud
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020206/business_financial_alliedirish_dc_2.html
Snippit:

DUBLIN (Reuters) - Ireland's largest bank, Allied Irish Banks Plc, was probing a suspected case of fraud amounting to $750 million on Wednesday in one of the world's biggest trading scandals since Nick Leeson sank Barings bank.

Black Blade: I also understand that JP Morgan Chase may have some bad news as well. There are certainly some questions on the excessive derivative exposure. Bad loans and write offs are also rumored.
EagleOne
New passenger on the bullion bus
http://www.knelson.com/technical/presentation.palo?presID=13%20.These guys must have been lurking here at USAGOLD. They announced yesterday that they would be converting **a siginifcant portion of their cash to bullion** See link to their web site and picture of happy execs with a little gold.
Brett Woods
(No Subject)
Here we go boys. Over the hill.
TownCrier
WGC Rhona O'Connell's comments on the gold market this past day...
http://www.gold.org/-------With the dollar, yen and euro all under varying degrees of question, the equity markets showing signs of stress and amid continued talk of earnings and accounting quality, gold is asserting a dual role, both as a reserve currency and as a reserve asset and is attracting attention accordingly. The longer-term background, with the dollar price solid last year in the face of sustained dollar strength, and in a low and falling interest-rate environment, provides the backdrop.

The sustained desire for hard assets as a risk hedge has underpinned gold's activity and the market reached $299 in both New York and the Far East overnight before retreating to support that is emerging at $296 and bouncing back to clear $300 in London this morning. Fund-related buying was evident through all time zones. The move has by definition been accelerated by technical trading, with different bull signals being triggered and thus electing buy orders (and stop-loss trading). Generally speaking in times such as these the physical market retreats to the sidelines, and there has been a degree of profit taking emerging in parts of Asia, although retail investors were again active buyers in Japan.

TOCOM was in fact so busy that there was an order overload and for a period, trades were delayed. The December contract was limit up for the whole day. All the interest in the OTC market is in spot trading; there is virtually nothing happening in the forwards and dealers are reporting an orderly options market, although the breach of $300 this
morning may well change that.--------

*WHEN* this does go critical, you'll wish you had heeded the warnings offered at these pages to put your diversification emphasis on the metal, not on the various gold derivatives. In times of stress, paper is only paper.

R.
Black Blade
JP Morgan Had Too Much Exposure to Enron
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Securities%20Firms%20News&b1=ad_bottom1&br=blk&tp=ad_topright&T=wealthstory.ht&s=APGC5jBO0Si5QLiBNThe CEO of JPMC says that they had too much exposure to deals with Enron.

BTW, it appears that there is a push to nudge the S&P futures higher and bring the POG back down. It would not be surprising to see a concerted effort to control the stock market and the POG today due to the numerous earnings warnings, scandals, "Daschle Dip", banking fears, and accounting standard concerns (Enronitis). Look for a hard push to contrl Gold in NY in the next few minutes.

- Black Blade
Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD
Hard assets... Easy access! Don't be fooled by inflatable paper substitutes!
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

gold sovereigns
Gold Sovereigns Today!

Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

In this global marketplace, a single event on the far side of the world can suddenly and adversely affect the performance-credibility value of the commercial positions within your investment portfolio.

Gold has no employees, no overhead, and no financial statement to balance. It cannot go bankrupt. Gold is wealth itself. It is valued worldwide on the basis of its uniquely reliable form and function -- a steadfast financial commodity which is immune to the contagious collapses to which all financial paper is prone.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

The Stranger
Woops!
From today's Wall Street Journal:





Gold Futures Soar Through Resistance
On Supply Issues, U.S. Equity Concerns

By DAVID BOGOSLAW
OsterDowJones Commodity News


Gold futures ripped through technical resistance levels, reaching a level not seen since the immediate aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks.

The leading April contract on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange stopped just short of the $300 mark -- a psychological threshold -- ending Tuesday's session at $299.10 a troy ounce, up $9 from Monday.

The same influences that spurred an unexpected move through $290 on Monday were at play Tuesday, with a potential shift in supply-and-demand fundamentals and concerns over U.S. equity valuations the chief drivers of the extended rally.

After posting significant losses Monday, U.S. stock indexes were fairly subdued. April gold hit its $299.80 peak even after the Dow Jones Industrial Average had recovered from negative territory and was up 48 points at 9735.

Some market watchers warned of an all-out crisis in investor confidence in the U.S. financial markets ignited by what market analyst Rhona O'Connell at the World Gold Council called the Enron factor.


Citing a report from a major investment firm, Ms. O'Connell said, "There's an awful lot of overseas money invested in U.S. equities. The threat of credit ratings being reduced is quite likely to induce repatriation of capital into these countries or into other investment areas."

A spate of credit downgrades would hit the dollar as a consequence of halting capital flows into the greenback, she explained. With no other currency performing well enough to siphon capital away from the dollar, that left only gold as a potential recipient of investor attention, she said.

"Accounting issues are first and foremost in [people's] minds. What the market hates most and what people hate most is uncertainty," agreed Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management in Evanston, Ill. But until another confidence-smashing corporate failure on the order of Enron emerged, he said he doubted concerns were sufficiently serious to warrant gold's move toward $300 an ounce.

Instead, he attributed gold's gains to a perceived shift in the metal's supply-and-demand balance, with investors taking a positive view of producers' recent announcements of plans to reduce hedge positions, or the amount of gold they have sold forward to protect themselves against falling prices.

Mr. Kaplan said the biggest gain in the gold price during the past five years -- a spike to $340 from $260 an ounce in September 1999 following an agreement among 15 European central banks to limit gold sales -- was related to supply-and-demand considerations, not safe-haven buying.

Although he said a move above $302 in spot gold would denote a sea change for the yellow metal, Mr. Kaplan said the odds were against it breaking $300, if only because of how many times it has failed at this level before.

Henri
Sir Gandalf
Your clinkery Noted

A toast to your growing wealth sir.

It grows not by idle sitting around and watching blips on a screen dance the lumbata...it grows by being added to!
turkey hunter
The Queen of England 50th
Hi all. Maybe the Queen of England told Eddie to turn gold loose for awhile to celebrate her Jubilee year. 50 years today she has been Queen. They do things first class over there. :)
Siochain
Cisco "Mistakenly" Pre=releases earnings
From Morning Stock letterI get (Newspicks) ...first was the story of gold & importance of jump...& that market looked to take a fall today ...but then Cisco to the rescue:

"Hold on here a minute! What is this? Business wire is saying that an internal memo from a CSCO executive was distributed prematurely to a lot of CSCO employees last night and that it says they will beat Q2 estimates for EPS. This sounds pretty shady doesn't it? In a world of accounting witch hunting, CSCO's memo hits the night before earnings and suggests they will beat earnings? This is getting interesting!

Oh now the Dow Jones also happens to say that 2nd Q booked orders were 3.9 billion verses their target of 3.75 billion

They say they are compelled to let us know about this since so many people got this "memo". This has brought the futures well up, and this changes the entire day folks!

8:21

Okay, it would be pretty naive to think that this CSCO baloney was just a mistake. there was a reason they decided to let out that they will beat estimates and revenues ahead of tonights earnings release. Maybe they are just trying to avoid the selloff that was brewing for this morning, I don't know. But now we have to try and figure out what it means for today.

It looks like we are going to have a small bounce this morning, but will it snowball into something big? Its hard to tell. We got the numbers out from CSCO, and as we said this morning it was probable that they would beat the estimates, but we haven't heard their conference call, and won't until tonight. Maybe the market will trade sideways ahead of that.

Our best guess is that we bounce here at the open, and attempt a move higher. We will probably put in a green close, but they won't want to get too excited until they head from Chambers himself.

8:31

the productivity number is out and it came in hotter than estimates. They were expecting a rise of 3% and it came in at 3.5% Will that move the market? Yes.

Right now the futures have gone from deep red to positive. We are now probably going to get an upswing at the open instead of a sell off. The question is can it hold? It could, but to be honest, it doesn't feel like it yet. Right now it feels like they will bounce us at the open and then sell us off again. What a wild day."

Hmmmn ...interesting how that memo got out by mistake...great timing, wouldn't you say?



Cavan Man
The (syndicated) "Wall Street Journal Report"
This AM, the loquacious Mike Salvatorelli et al talking about Cisco and good productivity numbers and "higher US fututes pointing to....". These guys should get a new producer.
Cavan Man
Siochain
Cisco Oops!That happened last year at a critical juncture. This is the second time if what you say is true. I remember distinctly but not the specific quarter.

Does anyone else remember? Run your own money using the internet.
Siochain
@Cavan Man
I believe so....want to make a bet that some pretty worried FED calls were made to Cisco to get the scoop....and voila....magically good news just gets "accidentally" released to employees ...BUT we've got to keep it "fair"..so now we need to pre-release to everyone...un huh,,,'sure!
slingshot
Castle Front Door
Victory SoundsBoom! Boom! Boom! Crraaaaaacccckkkkk

Arrrrrggghhhhhhhhhhhhhh!

You can't always get what you want.
But you find sometimes, you just may find'

You Get What You Need. Oh, YEA!

slingshot
RobotGuy
She Broke 3!!
Well it was nice to see anyway, a sign of things to come.
darkhorse
gee, I never expected this...
Right on que, gold is gettin the c**p kicked out of it. This kind of abuse (of power) orta be illegal...somebody orta make a federal case out of it! :)
RobotGuy
North American Markets
Looks as though were in for another dive after yesterday's struggle to keep afloat. We're in the money!!
sourdough
Gold price
Despair not if gold retreats.
Governments know that gold cannot be held back much longer.
They also know that the best option is to get as much gold in the hands of the Japanese consumer "BEFORE" they release their hold.
If it costs them paper or physical it will be worth it to get that windfall in the hands of the Japanese and restore their confidence enough to get them spending.
If it works, somewhere down the line they will get it back.
It doesn`t cost more to print a $1 bill than to print a $100 bill.
Make sure the Japanese reap the windfall at all costs.
USAGOLD Market Commentary
Gold Hits 28 Month High, Retreats; Irish Bank Pushed to the Ropes on $750 Million Loss in Currency TradingNEWS & VIEWS Update!
Available online to all clientele and prospective clientele, NEWS & VIEWS Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has again been updated.

Read the full commentary and related information here. (access codes required)

New visitors may review these selected portions provided at the Daily Market Report page. You may enjoy our 24-Hour NewsWire provided at this page, also.

If you would like to take full advantage of these insights and perspectives, made available from a leader with three decades of experience in the precious metals markets, then we invite you to request your personal access codes for the online News & Views. With your request, you will also receive a hard-copy introductory information packet on gold ownership which details the products and services offered by USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Goldfly
Back over $300
Aaahhh.... Volatility!
Hold on! Hold on!

Let go! let go!
RobotGuy
Ahhhh! There she goes!!
It's like two new years eve's in one day!! :0
Knallgold
This Gold market
If you think retracements are healthy in this market,you might have to study it more.The situation is verry unhealthy actually'so the faster the price shoots up,the sooner we get the healthy state back,no?
R Powell
Apology
In my enthusiasm over what I believe will be a big move upward in the dollar price of both gold and silver, I posted (yesterday) a report by an analyst. I am familar with a great many of these reports, some free and some available through paid subscriptions. What I reported yesterday gave information on the availability of this information but I was much too specific. It was judged, correctly in my opinion, as advertisement and removed.
I have no connection with anyone selling information and I do appreciate that this site is ad-free. I'm sorry and will be much more careful from now on.
Rich
Goldfly
Knallgold, on the whole, you're right, but

I'd say anything that injects some life into this market is something to smile about. Talk about inert elements.....
sourdough
gold price
I live in beautiful British Columbia , Canada.
Our economy needs the Japanese economy to recover.
We need the Japanese consumer to spend.
We need the Japanese consumer to purchase gold before it rises to far. We need them to take there 25,000 and invest in gold "before" it runs to $400+.
Will they sell, I don`t think so.
Not if they can go down to their local bank or pawnshop, whatever and use that gold as collateral, if they need too.
If they feel good enough to take that skiing vacation, where will they go? B.C. Currency ratio is correct. physical risk is best.
If they want to build the kids a house, B.C. lumber,
Best quality, best price,(u.s. shut us out)
Going out to celebrate. B.C. wine, Canadian beef,pork'salmon
Oh, I want gold to go to the roof, in my hands and the hands of the Japanese consumer. I can pay off my credit cards, they can spend. Make sure they get all they want, then let her go.
I wonder what`s the talk in the sushi shop.
TownCrier
Highgrading from the mind of ANOTHER
http://www.usagold.com/GoldTrail/archives/ANOTHER1.htmlAn excerpt for your additional consideration...
---
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) Sun Nov 02 1997 21:52:
Western thought is still linked to gold as a commodity. That thinking is going to change! The world will witness an almost instantaneous run into this commodity the likes of we have never seen before! It will not be "a trading rally" or "a two way street". Bullion will have become a holding for "the lifetime" never to be sold. "Sell and spend everything but not gold"!

Do you think in these terms: "if gold goes up $100+ next week I'll sell my futures, gold stocks and 10 K-rands for a fat profit and laugh all the way to the bank" If the gold market was the same as in the 70s and 80s, that might be a good move. But this market is not the same. The world has changed and left most goldbugs fighting the last war! Only this time they are much smarter and have many more tools to work with. But, what if you do battle with your modern missiles pointing the wrong direction?

For us to understand what is about to happen we must pull our minds out of the paper trading world. Instead enter the world of real things! Here we will see concepts more clearly.

All currencies and most treasury debt are little more than digital units of perceived value. You don't own them, your account is "credited" with this value. Foreign governments, such as Japan are no better off than American citizens, they don't own anything either! What is really owned is "the right to offer what is credited to you, to a bidder in exchange for real things or other credits". It is a strange way to hold wealth. One might say "my net worth is the intention of others to pay me a credit from someone else". This thinking has worked well until the late 80s. It was at this time that a few wealthy and very smart people started to see the end of this. They understood that the US$ was not going to crash, it already had. It, along with all major currencies would lose all sense of value and become only trading digits of account. The treasury debts were little more than the same thing.

You see, all currencies now compete with each other, not for value of wealth but for "USAGE". The game has now become "whose currency gets used the most for trading" not for value against goods! It was easy to know the currency that got used for oil would win this game. Today, all currencies are traded against the dollar for it's usage as a medium of oil exchange! Take away that link and the entire currency/ debt exchange system, as we know it will collapse! The US$ must be maintained as the "most used" if the other currencies are to have a chance to survive.

Will Japan sell US treasury debt and risk taking dollars out of "usage"? Not in your life! Nor will any other CB! They will talk about it. They will sell a little. But sell a lot? It will not happen. You see oil is the key and that connection to the dollar is changing. Foreign CBs will even sell some gold to try and keep the US$ in play ( see my other posts ) . Ever wonder why the US treasury has not sold gold, it would have the opposite effect! The oil that sense the early 70s, held together the world monetary system is now causing it to slide apart! We are not going to see inflation or deflation again. What we are now seeing is the "destruction" of our paper monetary system.

Someone once asked "if the currency/ banking system breaks down, how will we know what gold is worth?". My answer, gold above ground will be worth a lot more than gold below ground, a lot MORE!
--end--
RobotGuy
It's Amazing!
Unbelieveable how she rests ever so slightly shy of an otherwise imaginary line. What if we told them $300 is really just $299.75, would they push to $299.90? I find it very peculiar how we make imaginary limits. Should I spend another 20 cents? No, it's only worth $299.80. Ha! Good luck keeping her there for long!
uponroof
ding! ding! ding! ding! ding!
It's closing time in London town (noon est).....

Lets see what happens if anything. This has been a popular time for bull raids in the past. I would guess that the shorts are laying in the weeds today to counter or perhaps initiate a move of their own. But then you never know...the bulls might just keep hammering away at the close until the shorts can prove they can handle it. Meanwhile, the volatility is helping my calls.

siochain...I am sorry I mispelled your name yesterday. It's my 9th grade education rearing it's ugly head again.

Cheers
Carl H
Restrictions on Savings Withdrawls
Good Morning All:

I just got a statement from one of my bank accounts the following notice is on it:

Beginning April 1, 2002, withdrawls from savings accoutns are limited by the Federal Reserve Board Regulation D to a total of 6 per month. These include preauthorized, automatic, & online transfers, point-of-sale purchases, payments to other persons, & transfers by telephone. There will be a $10 fee for each limited withdrawl, over 6 per month, from your savings account.

This sounds disturbingly like a precursor to the restrictions in Argentina.
RobotGuy
By the way......SourDough
What on earth is going on with our dollar? You would think the rash of foreign currency entering our markets recently would be pushing it higher,..no?
Mr Gresham
Randy
Thanks for the "highgrading" excerpts; it's hard to find time to even get down into the mineshaft lately (and some fears I'll get so involved in "digging" I forget the rest of my day) so I appreciate you focusing us on some choice nuggets.
sourdough
RobotGuy (2/6/02; 10:03:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 69474
Ya, expected a little more strength. Still think it will come. Keep an eye on the CDNX. Lots of strength there, seems to come at the end of the day.

I got a question for anybody.
Say the Japanese people are "being hit over the head", with every means possible to herd them into the gold market, knowing that they will reap a coming windfall that could snap them out of their fear and increase consumer demand leading to domestic economic growth.
Say there are some huge financial entities that are aware of this. These huge financial entities realize that this is going to hurt them due to "wrong sided gold derivitives".
Say, they accept the future losses, but also accept that with the proper engineering the Japanese economy will reverse and start to grow based on consumer spending.

Question: what would be their preferred hedge against gold losses? yen?, Yen bonds? yen non performing bank loans? equities? other commodities?
Is there any hedge that could get them even?
Siochain
@uponroof
No problem...I have trouble with it....but since I am mostly of Irish heritage ...and given 9/11 as well as world conditions...I chose it because it means Peace in the Celtic language

Peace!
Siochain
Gold Summary
A little long & you know a lot of this...but thougt worth a read...from Roger Bentley Arnold Daily Observations

Gold : recent history

Gold prices are at $300 an ounce, up $9 yesterday alone. Gold had hit an interday low last February of $252 an ounce and has been trending steadily higher since then. The 10 year average price of gold is about $333 an ounce although that doesn't tell the real story. Due to coordinated central bank selling of gold over the past 10 years, at the request of the Basel Capital Accord from the Bank of International Settlements, gold prices have fallen from about $450 an ounce 10 years ago steadily down to where they are today. The average cost of getting gold out of the ground is about $250 an ounce, a ground floor which, if broken to the downside could not sustain itself below that level long. This is one of the reasons I have been advising that from a protection of principal investment gold looks very good. The bonus is the potential increase in its value should the world economy sustain paper currency devaluation. The rapid increase in gold prices over the past few days and few weeks indicates an erosion of confidence in paper currencies, including the US dollar, US Treasuries, and US GSE debt, (fannie / freddie) by investors all over the world.

Gold : Carry Trades revisited

Gold carry trades begin with a central bank or large money center bank renting or leasing a quantity of gold to another financial institution. The largest gold carry trade and gold derivatives market participant is JP Morgan Chase. That means they are the ones doing most of the renting from the other institutions. This gold is then sold by JP Morgan Chase, and others doing this, into the open market. The cash they raise by selling the gold is invested in "safe" income vehicles, namely US treasuries, or GSE debt. The income that comes in from the US treasuries is used to pay the lease on the gold they rented from the central bank. The money left over is cash flow profit.

Gold : Here is the Catch

Loss concern number 1: In essence, by doing this, JP Morgan and the others have shorted gold. Which means they will eventually have to buy it back to deliver, upon demand, to the banks they borrowed the gold from. Well, if they leased gold from the "counterparty" bank and immediately sold it at say $270 and ounce and are forced to buy it back at $300 an ounce they have lost $30 an ounce. Compounding this concern for investors is that nobody knows how much there is in potential losses on the books at JPM since they are not required to 1) carry the trade at market value as a liability or 2) even carry on their balance sheet. The growing concern is that many of the institutions have simlair trades being carried off balance sheet and nobody knows what their status is.

Loss concern number 2, bond losses : Remember they purchased US treasuries and GSE debt with the money they received from having sold the gold. Treasury yields have been rising recently due in part to the selling of US treasuries and GSE debt and the flight to safety into gold. As yields rise, the underlying principal value of the treasury decreases. Remember yields and bond prices have an inverse relationship; as bond yields; i.e. interest rates rise, bond prices and value fall. As bond values fall, reserves shrink. As reserves shrink, the potential for forced selling of other investments to meet reserve requirements increases. Forced selling is a reactive situation indicating a lack of internal business and financial controls. A lack of control can cause a crisis of confidence by investors in a companies management and the potential for a systemic route out by investors increases. This route can then self validate the destruction of the company. This is, in essence, what occurred to Enron.

Loss concern number 3, stock losses : Exaggerating all of this for investors is the fact that most of these trades are Over the Counter or OTC which mean they are not exchange traded, which means they are not transparent, which means they may or may not be carried on the balance sheet of the company doing these trades. This is called off balance sheet financing. The concern over off balance sheet financing and lack of transparency that goes with it is what caused lenders to stop lending to Enron, instigating its collapse. Although every major money center is involved in this, by far the largest player in derivatives of all kinds, including gold, is JP Morgan Chase. Equity investors are aware of this fact and are also aware that nobody knows what their exposure really is due to the lack of transparency. Which brings us to loss concern number three, the stock price falling. JPM's stock is off by 50% in the past year. Company treasury stock is also carried as a reserve asset on the books of the bank.

The immediate future : What I suspect will happen from here however is for central banks around the world to make more gold available for leasing and sale into this flight to safety in an attempt to meet the demand and to keep gold prices from going much above these levels. However, they will have to do so very quickly and in very large quantities in order to have an impact. The other side of that coin becomes, if the central banks make the gold available who is going to buy it and who is going to lease it. We know there are buyers but remember, leasing gold in this environment is the same as shorting gold. JPM and other FED member institutions will have no choice but to lease more gold and sell it into the demand to try to cap the price increase. I believe that they have already been instructed by the FED after consolation with the Treasury to do this. This is not a conspiracy theory it is common sense. If the FDIC; i.e. tax payers are going to be expected to step in to make depositors hole in the event that these organizations become illiquid they damn well better do everything in their power to prevent that eventuality ahead of time.

Cautionary point : If central banks and money centers even hint at slowing gold leasing and selling it could unravel the Basel Accord over night and lead to a run on gold. The only reason the gold carry trades work is because gold is constantly liquidated by central and money center banks ensuring gold price stability born out of the manipulation which itself is the result of the steady gold liquidation. If these same institutions that have been leasing their gold to others begin to believe that the companies they have leased their gold to are going to become illiquid soon they may try to get their gold back out by issuing a demand for its return. This would force the reversal of the gold carry trade process, a collapse of the Basel Accord and a spike in gold prices to a level that is incalculable. It could also lead a systemic collapse of the world wide financial system. I am not saying this will happen. I am saying you need to understand the process. The possibility, plausibility and probability of this occurring is increasing.
Siochain
Card-House of Morgan
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/ackerman/ackerman020602.html(Partial) The concentration of gold derivatives in the hands of one institution cannot be comforting to central bankers who had originally lent their gold reserves to a wide array of bullion dealers. JP Morgan Chase, also a major counter party to Enron in a variety of energy derivatives, held 80% of the gold derivatives reported by the OCC (Office of Controller and Currency) as of 9/30/01. Although total gold derivatives reported to the OCC have declined from the peak levels of $87.6 billion at year-end 1999, JP Morgan held only 40% of the total that time, which was prior to the merger with Chase. The decline in OCC-reported gold derivatives from the 1999 year end peak is most likely due to an offloading of positions to a non-OCC reporting entity such as Enron, an Enron-like organization, or a foreign bank. Now that many have abandoned the gold derivatives trade, it appears that JP Morgan Chase has become the rear guard to defend the derivatives universe against higher gold prices.

A "rear-guard" defense? If so, Da Boyz will have their hands full today, since gold's assault on $300 during yesterday's (Tuesday's) session hardly looked like it was going to subside quietly overnight. I had projected a short-term target for the April Comex gold contract in the range 305-306, but practically speaking, anything could happen. Morgan has friends in high places, as we all know, and they have proven many times in the past that they have both the resolve and the muscle to keep the gold price from drifting upwards of $300. Sooner or later, though, even more powerful forces than Morgan and its friends were bound to prevail.

Will it be this week?

Stay tuned.

RobotGuy
POG
In 94-96 roughly, gold rested around the $380 an ounce level, but I really don't think the markets were as bad back then as they are today. It will take a little time, but I'm sure we'll return, and probably surpass the values of gold in our recent past. What am I saying, everybody in here already knows that. I guess I'm just trying to comfort myself in this world of denial.
RobotGuy
Hey Kids!!
http://www.fgmr.com/right2know.htm This is probably a repost, but there may be a few of you who haven't read it. I like it, I find it very intruiging. Almost like listening to a fable as a child, but possibly carries truth.

Titled "We have a right to know"
subject: Fort Knox Gold.
Jon
proforma earnings
Why does the SEC allow this? It would seem that proforma is used because GAAP calculation is less favorable. I understand CISCO is coming out with proforma - and only proforma- at market close today. They claim they beat the street estimate! Stock has reversed negative slide and probably helped the market considerably today.
RobotGuy
Trendsetting?
I find it very interesting that Sydney and Hong Kong show very little affect to the POG lately. It's almost like they're sitting on the sidelines. They accept thier new price, play with it ever so slightly and return it relatively unchanged. Are they just enjoying the London radical motions?
Cavan Man
Siochain
Thanks for the post. I believe we are at the beginning of the end of the trail. The time it will take to get to the end will depend upon other left field events like Argentina, Enron, Japan, Worldcom, Global Crossing et al and those I have mentioned which are in and have set us in motion. The author is assuming that western CB's will go along to get along. This may not be so at this juncture. I have always believed that if you invest in gold you must view the gold market thru geo-political and global monetary eye shades. In that context it is entirely clear to me that at some near point in time we will witness an entirely new gold market ( 3rd generation after the LGP)which is in fact taking shape. This new market will not be born with considerable labor pains. I am going long 100% physical. I am out of the gold stock game except for one excellent jr. in "elephant country". Good luck.
Black Blade
Corporate debt burdens economy
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/134400537_corpdebtweight06.html
Snippit:

A new wave of corporate bankruptcies is reminding workers and investors the fallout from the recession isn't over. A major problem remains with the huge debt load U.S. companies took on during the late 1990s.

Corporations, excluding banks and other financial companies, have more than $4.9 trillion in bond and bank debt, up $1 trillion since 1998. Some analysts think high corporate debt could keep any economic recovery in low gear for the next few years.

Black Blade: But then this was obvious. I would put more attention on the extreme derivative exposure to the tune of $51 Trillion (that's Trillion with a T) held by the major US banks - notable among them JP Morgan Chase. Also of note is that inflows of cash into mutual funds has now slowed to a dribble. It seems that people are more concerned about saving than investing. Gold could not hold onto it's gains this morning and looks to waver about the $290 to $300 range for a while. At least until equities markets tank hard, some major bankruptcy occurs, another scandal maybe, or even military or terrorist event occurs. Anything is possible. The point has been made that Gold is an insurance and wealth preservation vehicle and now the World has been reminded of it. Even the talking heads in the financial media admits it and even refers to the rising price of Gold as a result of "a flight to quality".
Pizz
JPM, etc.
Haven't seen quite this much thrashing for a while.

Something is up, here's what I think.

JPM's statement that they made money on recent gold rise. I'm thinking they did. Are they short gold thru leasing and Enron type derivitives. Yes - but these are not exchange futures. Each and/or most are hybrid contracts that can't be marked to market. I think JPM has been in both the spot and exchange traded futures market over the last week or possibly much longer (going long). Sure, they made money on their shorter term gold longs. Longer term leasing/derivatives would not hardly move on a $25 bump on spot/short term. If this assumption is correct, as long as the paper markets hold, they're fine - regarding gold.

I've stated previously that IMO markets do not make major trend reversals until the "smart" (read as "big") money interests are properly positioned. All JPM is doing is positioning for a trend reversal in gold (and interest rates). Remember, banks borrow short and lend long - they know this game very well.
Now, IMO they are positioning long gold (short term) and it will offset their longer term leasing and short derivitives books. Now, it appears to me that the hedged miners are going to be the ones taking it in shorts (or holding the bag) over the next couple years (that's years - not months).

The short term thrashing? I feel, like a few others, that the G7 will be up to something this weekend. A defacto $ devaluation? That's my guess. Better to announce a small, CONTROLLED dollar drop than let the markets do it for you.

Are the banks/hedge funds out of the woods yet - no way. Bush & Company are not planning get out of jail free cards or government bailouts (IMO). Why? They inherited the mess and bailouts won't solve the problem. Best to let the markets select the witches and then let them burn.

Besides, way too many people are completely underestimating Bush. He's got an out of control financial forest fire going, and my bet is he'll backfire up to half the remaining forest(JPM et al) to save the other half.

Good news? Gold's goin' up no matter what.

Pizz

Simply Me
(No Subject)
@Siochain
RE: your post Gold Summary (2/6/02; 10:56:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 69478)

Good presentation of both sides of the gold game to this point. But, the conclusion seems to be that this gold rally could go anywhere; up, down or sideways.

I think that if the analysis had been carried further, to take into consideration the current risks
(*1. rising public demand for gold because of loss of confidence in other investment vehicles
*2. serious economic crisis in Japan, Turkey, Egypt, Argentina, and maybe a few smaller countries not making the news
*3. the failure of Enron as proof of Greenspan's statement that no corporation is too big to fail (hence no LBMA style bailout for JPMorgan and company)
the analyst would have concluded that CB's will sell little or no gold into this rally. Maybe they will offer just enough to calm down large spikes and keep the system going a little while longer.

Say you were a CB standing atop a house of cards with your arms full of gold (financial food), and there was a very large and hungry crowd beneath your precarious pyramid. As your cards bent and fell away due to the stress of the mobs below, you might through down a few loaves of gold to try to keep them from knocking the house down while you watch for the right time to knock the house down yourself, hoping to surprise the mobs and escape with at least a portion of your gold that will allow you to survive.

simply



sector
@pizz Good Summary!...JPM Could be the ScapeGoat
...since they bankrolled Enron.

A controlled deval of say 19% [as Chapman's sources report] for the Canadian dollar seems about right.

But the snakes at the Fed would hold back the real dirt from the Administration until the 11th hour. That factor would boost the deval to 30% or thereabouts.

Winners are the Canadian natural resource equities and of course all gold holders.

Recall that "Nothing id confirmed [JPM's gold problems] until it is officially denied".

Chase's gold derivatives <1year maturities went up by 12% [Table 9 OCC] in the last quarter and the 1-5 year maturities didn't change and their > 5 year maturities dropped by 13.8%.

Morgan's of course dropped by >$19 Billion to an unknown party without effecting the gold market.

So there may be some truth to the idea that JPM is going long gold, although that cannot be confirmed without trading records. Did they make money yesterday? GATA's sources had them as buyers after the $292 break so yeah thay made some money.

The Japanese are still the physical key...they need metal...their economic system is bending more each day.
Carl H
Headline: U.S. pushing F-16 sales to Poland, Austria
As I recall Kuwait loaned out their 80 tons after a favorable F16 deal....

Poland has about 103tons
Austria has about 377tons

as of 1/2001
Carl H
F16's
Poland is also the largest producer of silver in Europe.
dynamite_man
@Carl H, re: F-16's
Very observant of you, thanks for the tip. I knew it (the needed physical) would be coming from somewhere.
Carl H
Interesting little math problem.
Here is an interesting little problem that I came up with the other day. I thought I would post it here for the mathematically inclined out there. I will post the solution and some comments on its implications in the next couple days.

Suppose that you invest some money in an investment with the following characteristics:

It has a 50% chance each year of going down 20%.
It has a 50% chance each year of going up by a percentage X.

If you want to get ahead at an average rate of 7% per year, what percentage must X be?
EagleOne
Carl H
+33.8 % ought to do it.
John Doe
Carl H
My probability and statistics are a bit rusty, but here goes...

One models this as an infinite series of gains and losses which reduce down to one example each of the positive and negative case (we can do this because the odds are even). Of course, there's nothing to say that, even with a perfect 50/50 distribution, and given a large enough sample, that one couldn't have 5, 10, 20, even 100 losses in a row, which would wipe the starting capital out -- game over -- however, the "odds" are against that outcome, yet not at all impossible.

a = odds of the negative event, 50% or .5
b = result after the negative event, 80% or .8
c = odds of the positive event, 50% or .5
d = target result after each paired iteration, 107% or 1.07
x = unknown gain per iteration needed to produce d


(a * b) + (c * x) = d

substituting known values and solving for x:

(.5 * .8) + (.5 * x) = 1.07

.4 + .5x = 1.07

.5x = .67

x = 1.34

In other words, one would need to achieve a 34% return on each win if a string of losses/winnings were to achieve a positive 7% over the long run.

Of course, starting with a win makes the effort a bit easier, and starting with a loss makes it a bit harder. But if the gain/loss distribution is perfectly random and perfectly even, one should converge on the desired target, providing the loss and gain percentages themselves are correct and consistent.
Black Blade
Gold Ready For a Retest of $300.00?
Gold has been bumping against $300.00/oz. tonight in Oz. It could try another push past $300.00/oz. What is needed is for Gold to settle above $300.00 and to establish a new floor. Currently Gold is $299.50/oz. "Interesting Times"
Black Blade
OOPS! Higher! Past $300.00/oz.
Gold just jump higher +$3.50 and now at $301.40/oz. Could get lively. Higher lows and higher highs?
mikal
@Dynamite_Man
You said : "I knew it (the needed physical[gold]) would be coming from somewhere" It's not known if Poland will sell. Austria wouldn't. But, with a little gold here, a little there, they have filled the gaps, with leasing and derivatives- standard operating procedure for the cabal over the last decade. Leasing isn't used as it's no longer profitable or risk free. Derivatives are being unwound, using physical, swaps, etc. But they won't have the needed gold in any measurable quantity!
Mr Gresham
300
Wow -- that was a short re-test of the 290's eh? ;)

If 300 bring Simply Me back to share our company, and 360 is supposed to bring back ANOTHER, I wonder who 600 will inspire to join us. Maybe the guys who wrote that thing in the Constitution about...well, you know what I mean.
Cavan Man
mikal
I don't think either country would participate. I believe Austria is bound by the Washington Agreement (if they keep to it) and Poland wants inside, infact, needs inside the EU. Add to that the fact the a EU consortium primarily led by Germany and France is developing a Euro version (more or less) of the F16 (and beyond) and there you have it. IMHO
Cavan Man
Last Post
Sorry for the poor editing as I am in a hurry!
Siochain
After Hour trading RED RED RED
http://toplist.island.com/toplist/top20.jsp?AH=onApparently Cisco so far cannot pull up market ...after hours many "top" stocks hit hard....may be contrinuting to gold rise now

They are going to have to really work hard tonight to find something else to prop up morning SM.
Cavan Man
PS mikal
It has been published that the Austrian CB recently bought 100 tons of AU. The Bank would not confirm but they did not deny.
slingshot
We're Back $300.00 Gold
Looking to see this pendulum swing more to the upside after each pullback.

Wonder what the Japanese are going to think when they see a spike of $325.00. $308.00 was great!
"The train it didn't stop going, No it just slowed down".
Locomotive Breath by Jethro Tull
Slingshot
mikal
@CavanMan
I believe you are right about the gold purchase. And yes, Poland needs in, but let's hope F16 purchases/gold dishoarding are not a trump card to gain Euro bloc entry. Euro market entry rules will be relaxed for expansion as before, and Poles must foresee the role of their gold, so a sale now is hardly conceivable. Gold held in reserve and Euro marked to the market price of that gold- a European idea soon to be worldwide I feel. Instead of supplying the cabal for a day or two with their little reserve, they may wish to swap gold certificates for an F16 or two- Russia or China might pay in gold.
Siochain
Gold, the dollar, and the economic outlook
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_02/droke020802.htmlPartial: As of last month, the cycle channels controlling gold's intermediate-term moves turned up at almost a 90 degree slope and project a near-term top near $340. Also visible on the two-year weekly chart (which is something we failed to look at when making our previous forecast) is a clear-cut head and shoulders bottom pattern with the left shoulder between $270-$295 or thereabouts, the head at gold's recent lows near $255 and the right shoulder between $270-$295 a la the left shoulder. The measuring implication of this pattern confirms the cycle channel forecast of $335-$340.

...The 40-week cycle is up until around the latter part of May, and this ensures gold should have a good first and second quarter this year. There will likely be a correction heading into autumn, but this will be quickly followed by yet another upward leg of the bull market to close out the year. A price forecast this far out is out of our reach, but suffice it say that gold should definitely be above $400, perhaps considerably higher, as we close out 2002

....The cycle channels on the weekly dollar index chart shows upside potential to 124-126 (currently just below 120) before the next major correction. The dominant dollar cycles are still in the ascending phase until the early part of the second quarter, so we should expect lofty dollar valuations until then.

...Finally, few seem to consider the effect that a series of rolling crashes will have on the financial markets and the economy-not to mention the value of the dollar-in the months ahead. A collapse in values where the public stores much of its wealth (namely the stock and real estate markets) will go a long way in absorbing whatever excess liquidity that may be out there. Bottom line: we are as far from inflation as the east is from the west at this point along the K-wave cycle. The inflation camp needs to re-evaluate their position in view of these facts.






Siochain
Tomorrow's SM
IHD view of tomorrow's Stock Market (Note...analysts supposedly ready to shill Cisco)
"TOMORROW
Initial jobless claims out before the open, and after the Challenger survey released earlier in the week showing 212,000 new jobs lost, this will get some attention. The big story will how CSCO is treated. It was abused after hours (along with the entire Nasdaq 100) when it did not give guidance beyond the current quarter. The numbers were good, but if no one comes to its defense tomorrow morning, the session could be ugly early on,i.e., a faster test of the next support levels.

We think we are going to see many analysts come out and up CSCO in the morning. Maybe not, but the two we heard from tonight were gung ho about the earnings. If they back it, we may get that rally up to the resistance
levels that the Dow and S&P are trying to form up to try.

In short, CSCO's numbers were good, but they did not give anything near a glowing report on where the economy is at this juncture. The earnings did nothing to instill confidence the economic recovery is going to be robust
and thus boost corporate earnings, and that is the real problem behind all of the selling.

Thus the overall picture has not changed: if CSCO is supported there may be a bounce in the indexes to test that resistance. Without more, however, the downtrend will more than likely remain in place and give us another leg down to really test those retracement levels. We have to remember
that no stock or index moves in a straight line; they trend up, down, or sideways. In a downtrend they move up to test the trendline and then succumb to a new bout of selling that takes it to newer lows.

Again, if no one comes to CSCO's aid, the selling well be brutal on the open if the after hours trading sets the tone."

Canuck
Good job Pizz
Keep us up to date with your thoughts buddy!
Black Blade
Visteon to Cut About 1,600 Jobs
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/020206/visteon_job_cuts_1.html
Snippit:

Auto Supplier Visteon to Eliminate About 1,600 Jobs As It Continues Restructuring.

Black Blade: More "Bones" for the "Bone Pile".
Golden Vanity
(No Subject)
Has JPM lost control of the gold paper? The chart tells all!
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/research/comp_chart.gsp?s=XAU.X+JPM
Golden Vanity
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/research/comp_chart.gsp?s=XAU.X+JPM
Trying again
John Doe
Carl H
Scratch that.

After rereading your problem, I noted the requirement to compound ANNUALLY, through thick and thin. Again, assuming an even distribution of up and down years, if one is to see a 7% return, compounded per annum, through both bad and good years combined, a higher return is required:

For example, after two years, the compounded return, assuming one up year and one down year, in either order, would be 14.49%:

1 * 1.07 * 1.07 = 1.1449

or

p * R * r = p * 1.1449

where

p = principal
R = up year result
r = down year result .8 or 80%

again, substituting and solving for R:

p * R * .8 = p * 1.1449

.8R = 1.1449

R = 1.431125

A bit more than a 43% return is required in the up years to make up for the losses in the down years and yet maintain a compounded 7% return throughout the entire period. (We'll ignore commissions, slippage, and taxes for now).

Quite the nut to overcome, isn't it? See how easy above average return investing is!...provided there are no bear markets...
Waverider
Administratium
Researchers have recently discovered the heaviest element known to science and have tentatively named it Administratium, with the chemical symbol AD. Administratium has no protons or electrons, thus having an atomic number 0. However, it does have 1 neutron, 125 assistant neutrons, 75 vice-neutrons, and 111 assistant vice-neutrons. This gives it an atomic mass of 312. These 312 particles are held together by a force that involves the continuous exchange of meson-like particles called morons. The morons are surrounded by vast quantities of lepton-like particles called peons.

Since it has no electrons, AD is inert. Hoever,it can be detected chemically, as it impedes every action with which it comes into contact. According to researchers, a minute amount of AD caused one reaction to take four days to complete when it would have normally occurred in less than one second. Administratium has a normal half-life of aproximately 3 years, at which time it does not actually decay but instead undergoes a reorganization in which assistant neutrons, vice neutrons, and assistant vice-neutrons exchange places. In fact, AD's mass will actually increase over time, since with each reoganization, some of the morons inevitably become neutrons, forming new isotopes. This characteristic of moron promotion has led some scientists to speculate that AD is spontaneously formed whenever moron concentration reaches a certain level. This hypothetical quality is the Critical Morass.

Administratium occurs naturally in the atmosphere and tends to concentrate at certain points, particularly government buildings and large corporations. However, scientists are warning that toxic levels have recently been detected around the Forbes Body Count area and are warning people to stay away.
Siochain
Who is pulling gold's strings?
http://www.mips1.net/mggold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256B5900058039?OpenDocument
Intro:"Gold market experts say the latest run in the gold price bears the hallmarks of the spike in May and September last year. Suspicion centers on three large hedge funds, any of which may also have been involved in the recent sting against the Bank of England's gold auction.....
Waverider
UK: Transco to cut 2,000
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3NFGMMDXC&live=true&useoverridetemplate=ZZZ99ZVV70C&tagid=ZZZPB7GUA0C⊂heading=UKSnippit:
"Union leaders are threatening to call industrial action over plans to cut more than 2,000 jobs at Transco, the UK gas pipeline operator.

It said redundancies - expected to affect mainly management and administrative staff - would not affect the mains replacement programme ordered by the Health and Safety Executive after a series of fatal house explosions."

Waverider: Another 2,000 redundancies off to..you know where (don't think you have these BB).
Waverider
Gold surges $8.90 to 2-year high
http://globeandmail.com/servlet/GIS.Servlets.HTMLTemplate?tf=tgam/common/FullStory.html&cf=tgam/common/FullStory.cfg&configFileLoc=tgam/config&vg=BigAdVariableGenerator&date=20020206&dateOffset=&hub=business&title=Business&cache_key=business¤t_row=4☆t_row=4#_rows=1Snippits: Globe and Mail

The price of gold surged $8.90 (U.S.) an ounce yesterday to $298.20, its highest level in two years, as commodity funds and gold producers move to unwind their hedge positions.

"You are seeing bullion as a classic store of value," Mr. Ing said.

"Hedging has become like smoking. It's socially unacceptable," Mr. Ing said.

The Japanese have been heavy buyers and the yen took another hit today," one trader said.

The Toronto Stock Exchange's gold and precious minerals index rose 3.8 per cent yesterday or 230.31 points to 6,285.40 points. Some analysts say the fair value of the gold and precious minerals index is about 7,500.

Waverider: Posted out of interest for what is being reported in the mainstream media. Cheers!
Black Blade
Gold pulls back after topping $300
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B1B11F2DF%2D9593%2D455E%2DB3A5%2D997F96960CB7%7D
Snippit:

Erik Gebhard, an analyst at Altavest.com warned, however, that "a high degree of volatility can be expected now that all this movement is likely attracting even more attention."

"Traders are similar to moths attracted to light -- they come out of the woodwork and can relentlessly pursue a target for no apparent reason, sometimes to their own demise," he said.

The market is likely to correct a bit on overbought conditions, but pullbacks should be bought, he said. "I wouldn't want to be short! When gold awakens it can act like a sleeping giant."

Black Blade: We have seen how fast Precious Metals can move. This morning was just an example. We have seen more intense moves in Gold such as that after the WA announcement.
Shermag
Cisco Lays an Egg
http://www.bloomberg.com/bbn/afterhours.htmlLooks like the after-hours market did not like John Chambers soothing words after all.

Snip

"New York, Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell in extended trading after the chief executive of Cisco Systems Inc., the largest maker of computer-networking equipment, said orders aren't coming in as fast as it has been shipping products.

Cisco rose as high as $19.39 in extended trading shortly after reporting that fiscal second-quarter sales and profit topped forecasts. The shares later dropped $1.39 from the closing price to $17.22. About 23.5 million Cisco shares traded after 4 p.m., making it the most active stock.

Some of the top U.S. computer-related companies fell during extended trading hours, including Ciena Corp., which makes optical networking equipment, and No. 1 chipmaker Intel Corp. The Nasdaq 100 Index declined 23.61, or 1.6 percent, to 1422.35 in trading of about 80 million shares, Nasdaq said. That's up from 47 million yesterday.

``It looks pretty bad,'' said Frank Husic, a managing partner of Husic Capital Management in San Francisco, which manages about $2 billion and doesn't own Cisco shares. ``As far as I can see, everything is down that's related'' to Cisco, he said. "

May make for some interesting action tomorrow.

Shermag
Black Blade
Gold soars as Enron fever rises
http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/story.html?f=/stories/20020206/1351827.html
Bullion up US$8 an ounce: Failure of U.S. stimulus deal latest blow for stocks

Snippit:

The price of gold shot to its highest level in almost two years yesterday in a volatile day of trading that sent investors searching for protection against another slide in stocks and the economy. News of the failure of the U.S. fiscal stimulus plan came as yet another blow to a market still struggling with fallout from the Enron accounting scandal and other stock meltdowns, said Ned Collins, head of trading at Daiwa Securities America. "It is really difficult to get someone out there to buy stocks right now. People are cynical and suspicious."

Money managers on Bay Street said that same feeling of despair is spreading on both sides of the border as investors lose faith in the chances of a strong economic rebound later this year. "It's not looking very good," said Doug Davis, president of Davis Rea Investment Counsel in Toronto. "Until people feel good, they're not going to put money in the market. They were just starting to feel good and this Enron thing comes along."

Last week South Africa's AngloGold Ltd. followed the lead of many smaller miners, cutting back its price-hedging program, a sure sign that the industry expects the gold price to keep rising. A spate of industry consolidation seems likely to curtail production over the next few years, boosting prices and profits, analysts said. Still, most investors believe gold's best attribute is its defensive nature in a bear market. With other defensive sectors like pipelines, utilities and financial services unlikely to get more relief from falling interest rates, money managers see gold as their only place to hide.

"People had big hopes for this year and it's started out badly," he said. "There's a lot of discouragement out there, and it seems we're going to have to go through this period of consolidation for maybe another few months before we really get going again."


Black Blade: I have been saying this for quite some time now - this is not a "typical" recession (if there were really such a thing). This is going to be a long and painful economic downturn. Gold is one of very few places to seek refuge. What better way for a company to go than to "dig up money" when in a deepening depression? And what better currency to hold when the fiat currency is in doubt than to have a currency (such as Gold) that has its own intrinsic value no matter where one travels. I can't blame anyone for seeking refuge in Gold in times like these. Gold is anonymous and serves as a Golden lifeboat to sail across troubled stormy economic waters. That's why I hold Gold and Silver. It's excellent insurance.
Carl H
John Doe - Correct
Yes, 43% is the correct answer. Your observation that this does not take into account taxes, or comissions is a good one. I would also add inflation to the list. (Oh, pardon me, Uncle Al says there is no inflation...)

I have not actually taken the time to work the problem with all these considerations included because I would have to write a short program to solve it iteratively. I would guess the answer would be 50-60%.

If you change the 7% to the 20% expectation that so many have had in recent years, then you need in excess of 80%.

There are several points here that I found very interesting:

1. I found the number surprisingly high. A 50% return is rather difficult to accomplish, espeically with a 50% probability and only a 20% downside risk.
2. Losses are deadly. It is virtually impossible to compensate for them with upside potential. Skewing the probabilities toward the upside event is probably eaiser than increasing the return on the upside or reducing the downside loss.
3. Corellary to #2 -- The boomers that have lost money in the market will probably find it impossible to recover in time for the retirement that they dreamed of (unless perhaps they buy gold/silver stocks now).
4. How many investments do you have to sift through before you find one where you can say the probabilities are truely skewed heavily. I believe that these opportunities are relatively rare? Perhaps 1 in 100? I belive that silver, and gold have the probability distributions very skewed tothe upside AND have fairly modest downside risk and huge upside potential. A very very unusual combination.
5. Incidentally, people are, on average, poor at estimating probabilities.

ski
PM sales increase ....


A major west coast bullion/coin dealer just reported the following:

"Our month-on-month gold bullion sales are up 40%. Month-on-month silver bars are up 100%. And finally, month-on month silver rounds are up 249%."

It is nice to know what's happening in the trenches. Due to the highly unusual forces that are at work in the PM arena, local information like the above may help us discover what is really happening in the world of PM's.

timbervision
FOA
I have been reading ANOTHER and FOA all night(plus many previous nights). I am becoming convinced as to the intrinsic value of physical gold ownership. I am seriously considering cashing in a portion(?major) of my RRSP's and buying gold. This is an unpleasant and mentally difficult step because it means paying the 50% government tax now and having only half the current amount available to invest in gold. But if all paper gold is going to burn then what's the point in being in gold mining stocks-- which have so far this year, and last, greatly helped me offset .com losses from two years ago.

I am still puzzled by something. Is it FOA's contention that all gold mining stocks will fail to live up to ones hopes on D-day. I can certainly see how the hedged mines will be in immense trouble, but will all unhedged mines also not be able to benefit from the expected massive rise in POG?
Black Blade
European Markets Awash in Red
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?uThe European markets start off lower. Gold has held up well in Asia bouncing about +/-$0.50. The markets still are reeling from Enronitis, lowered earnings, corporate bankruptcies, etc.

There are second thoughts about Cisco's phoney earnings yesterday. They apparently had some huge writeoffs on inventory last quarter and declared that inventory obsolete. Abracadabra! The inventory is sold and presto change-o, the sales are recorded as pure profit. Yet another accounting scam is exposed. This is unfortunately legal, however, it demonstrates the lengths that these crooks will go to decieve their shareholders. "Interesting"

- Black Blade
Simply Me
@ Mr. Gresham
Thanks for the welcome back! You honor me, to mention my name in the same sentence with Another.

I've been gone simply because I had nothing to contribute to this forum. And that's not proud ignorance...just an admission of stupidity. Others here (with a nod to you and Black Blade) are much better than I at market analysis, economic forecasting and news reporting. I've been lurking, but since the Christmas season, my business has needed my full attention. (I'm neglecting about 30 emails right now.)

After a couple of years of reading and learning here at this forum, I came to the firm conviction that what our friends Another and FOA have predicted for gold would indeed happen. The only questions were timing, circumstances, and numbers. So I waited and watched.

I think the circumstances are right and the timing is now. The numbers...well, we'll see. But $300 was a magic breakthrough point for anyone who watched gold languish in the $250 to $275 cage for sooooo looong.

What do you think will be the magic number to make paper burn? $320? $360 (Another's number?) Maybe higher?

$30,000.00 per ounce just might be enough to induce Thomas Jefferson himself to make an appearance! I just hope the entire world economy doesn't have to come to a screeching halt to cause such numbers....but I'm afraid that's the forecast.

With a warm golden glow,
simply me





Simply Me
A belated Thank You!
I must now make up for a glaring sin of omission.

Thank you, Mr. Kosares, for the lovely Gold Sovereign you so graciously awarded me in a contest last fall. It arrived in perfect condition and is now a part of the family heirlooms. My sincere apologies for my tardiness in acknowledging the receipt.

Thank you, also, TownCrier, for your part in choosing my post as one of the winners.

(pause) Clink!
simply
Topaz
Simply me: timbervision
Simply,
The latest uptick has certainly caught the imagination eh? - let's hope it's not a case of "the little engine that couldn't" regarding $300. Notional losses are sure to be mounting with hedged Aussie Miners and must be disturbing - Spot in A$ is currently A$590 odd ....best to you.
timbervision,
In his absence may I humbly offer the following summary of FOA's take on Stocks-v-Physical:- Before Gold is "freed" the current price setting arena (LBMA, Comex) must be seen to fail as the weight of paper forces the market into gridlock. Physical and Paper gold will go their separate ways. As Stocks are a derivative of the paper financial system he anticipates they will "burn" along with Paper Au. When the dust settles, Physical Golds status will be restored as the Wealth of Ages (and some) with all the attendant taxes, royalty's imposed on those who mine it.

Bottom line: A Physical mindset - steel the nerves for any $Spot price as this plays out....and good luck!
Topaz
Dominoes line up.
http://au.dailynews.yahoo.com/finance/20020206/reutersfinance/1012955893-1879597118.htmlMacquarie Bank is active in the Au mining finance sector here in Oz----Margin calls-----lets watch!
Topaz
Hangin' tough@$301
The absence of the goon squad in this market makes me think the "BUYERS" are from that select group Another refers to as - those who WILL be able to collect Bullion on demand - ie: OIL.
If said Buyers are in the Market, the Makers are NOT going to fractionally cover the Paper -- Nooo! it will be allocated 100%. Not so the Johnny-come-lately Mutual Fund.

Thoughts?
Simply Me
'Oy, Topaz!
Nice to see your name in the ranks again, Topaz. I may have missed your posts...but methinks it's been awhile since I've seen your name here.

RE $300 POG: Your caution is right. As long as the paper game goes on, there's the possibility it will trounce our little party. But...("Everyone I know's got a big 'but'." Pee Wee Herman)...there's no doubt there's been a huge sea-change in the economic climate. I wonder if paper has the trouncing strength it once did.

Been up working all night. Gotta go now.
Golden Dreams to You,
simply
Henri
$300
My thought on why the cabal decided to let gold run 300+ is that it is to punish Anglo for leaving the fold. They now said they will unwind their large hedge position (and/or forward sales?). Or perhaps it is to encourage new forward sales from small miners?

I have some AU that I bought before the discovery of this site and it also predates GATA. I am at breakeven now and am thinking of cutting it loose. Underwater before that. If gold runs they will have to suffer to close the hedges anyway.

Any thoughts?
Henri
further
As someone mentioned already a higher POPG also punishes Normandy's new owners who will have to close the hedgebook at higher prices. For them I am thinking it doesn't matter because production is gaining a better spot price...just a wash on assets until the book is closed. Perhaps for Anglo as well. Dang its all so complicated...wish I could see more clearly.

If all shorts are under beyond hope anyway, what matter does it make if they let it (POPG) run to the moon?
Cavan Man
Worldcom next?
"According to Enron's most recent annual report, the
firm made more money trading derivatives in the year
2000 alone than Long-Term Capital Management made in its
entire history. Long-Term Capital Management generated
losses of a few billion dollars; by contrast, Enron not
only wiped out $70 billion of shareholder value, but
also defaulted on tens of billions of dollars of debts.
Long-Term Capital Management employed only 200 people
worldwide, many of whom simply started a new hedge fund
after the bailout, while Enron employed 20,000 people,
more than 4,000 of whom lost their life savings as
Enron's stock plummeted last fall.

"In short, Enron makes Long-Term Capital Management look
like a lemonade stand."

How many Enrons are out there? Maybe many.

Excerpeted from Bill Bonner's DR
Belgian
POG
Analysts and Gold-authorities stampede to offer a variety of explanations for the recent "price"-move for the "commodity", gold . None of the above bothered to remind about the monetary character of Gold and automatically neglect the "value" of Gold. But sub-consciously, they all know that Gold is much more than simply a commodity ! Why should they otherwise make such a fuss for a meager price-rise of 20% (253$ >> 303$). It is the paper-leverage (miningshares) on that 20% POG-rise, that is producing all the media commotion.

Problem is that these analysts/goldauthorities, don't have a clue why POG is suddenly increasing in price (value comes later). Flight to quality...Enron jitters...hedgestop...hedgefund raid...etc. Forget about the dollar-strength...CB goldsales...cabalesque derivatives...etc. Any instant explanation is good enough for letting the show run.

The point I would like to make is : Nobody even suspects that GOLD might have a very big surprise in store ! With "surprise", I mean "the" TG map or even part of it.
Yes even in Euroland, analysts and goldbugs, don't buy the euro/gold/oil concept ! All, do prefer, to keep running like chicken without a head. For the simple reason that advising Physical Gold in Possession is NOT generating commissions on trade for the middlemen (brokers). Hyping and bashing goldshares is much more profitable for those who choose to make a living as a financial broker.

Trade in Physical Gold can never generate such vast amounts of profits/loses for the present wide range of participants. The idea to change this existing paper circus is the "real" flight/strive to Quality. An inevitable evolution from sick price-trading to value-trading. For Gold and stocks as well. That's why this paper-price-trading must reach extreme excess first, before a "change" for the good can emerge. POG volatility "must" increase before the general public starts to understand (realize) what is happening and more important "WHY" it is happening.

To the point : What happens if trading in goldmine-stocks is suspended overnight ? Let us ask any Argentinian saver (and many others) how it feels. They don't only close banks but even stockmarkets, don't they (9/11) ?
These banks and stockmarket closures had different reasons and results. What might be the reason/result for trading halts in goldmining ? And what guarantee do we have that it will never happen ? And will we be happy with a TG like explanation when all trading is halted ? And when our goldmine shares can't be sold...with what are we going to buy the Physical ? Ask the Enron people. Is LBMA to be compared with Enron ? 600 tonnes of paper gold against 12 tonnes of Physical (factor 50 x)?
Do all goldmine shareholders/GAMBLERS know if their favorite will/can survive such a trading halt probability ?

After all, who still wants to *HOLD* shares or any other kind of paper after what we are experiencing today ?
We are condemned to drive up the rotational speed of gambling/trading and *Holding* is out and demod� !
In other words : systemic, self-destructive hysteria.
That's what TG's advise on *Physical Gold in Possession* is all about. During this 2 1/2 years of POG bottoming we had an increase in price-jumps : 2$ >> 6$ >> 9$...watch out for the 50$ >> 100$ and trading halt !?
escapethematrix
Duisenberg to Step Down as ECB President in July 2003 (Update6)
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APGKCRhTVRHVpc2VuSnippet:

Frankfurt, Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Wim Duisenberg, who presided over a 23-percent drop in the value of Europe's single currency and a stagnating economy, said he will step down in July 2003. No successor was named.

Trichet, 59, ``would probably be better for the euro,'' said Julian Jessop, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in London. ``He's better at representing his bank. There's a perception that he's more dovish, less focused on just fighting inflation and more on broader objective.''
Naming Trichet, who helped make the French central bank independent of political control, would be ``very positive,'' Italian Economy Minister Giulio Tremonti told reporters in Rome.

TG: How about a Trail Walk as to what to expect between now and then?? It certainly doesn't seem like the World economy or our "paper" charade system can scrape by 'til then.
CoBra(too)
@CM - The Next Enron?
Hello CM,

reminds me of MK's message a few weeks back ... only one Enron away from the POG exploding.

The question probably is when will the first major counter-party implode weighed down by liquidity problems surfacing in some of the underlying derivative positions.

@ Sir Belgian, your constant hammering on physical possession only, is starting to make total sense, as A/FOA's long time thesis. Though, up to now holding proxys
of gold in the ground was extremely rewarding. And I'll still take a chance in holding some proxies.

Best regards - cb2



RobotGuy
Thresholds
Perhaps one of you kind posters could enlighten me by explaining the significance of different threshold levels. Glass ceilings etc., are these just hypothetical limits, or are there some facts or reason behind them? I can understand someone with a large holding saying "When gold reaches this level, I'm selling!" and the effect it would have momentarily. If these limits are calculated by means of various equations, why wouldn't these 'limits' be more like 304.23 or something more tangeable than a rounded number? To sum up my question, why is 300 such a big deal? Don't get me wrong, it's good to see, but I don't realize the significance.
sector
@RobotGuy...$300 "Threshold"
Since the math is easier to calculate, the option/futures wagers are a tad easier to calculate so the "threshold" stands out. Also easier to add gains/losses.

Some call it psychologically important. Perhaps it has to do with human nature...the confidence thing.

What IS significant is the longer we stay at or near $300 per ounce the LESS likely we are to go back to $295 since that price will be viewed more and more as a bargain and savy buyers [read Japanese and anyone else in the Middle to Far East] will quickly grab the ounces.

By the same "logic" the possibility of $325 actually seems achievable now that we are swimming in $300 waters. So the buyers must be ever vigilant to keep pog from "getting away from them"

All the while those who hold long dated gold shorts are sinking deeper into what Eddie George [BOE] said was the "abyss".

What IS the "abyss"? POG controls allot more that folks think. Inflation perceptions, the dollar index and interest rates. So when the price of gold takes off those other things get hammered.

And if one has a really big bet [$20 Trillion] that interest rates won't be volatile, then one is in deep trouble...in spite of denial press releases to the contrary [JPMC].
Cavan Man
sector
The IRD's are the real achilles heel due to size of position(s)? When should the music stop?
RobotGuy
@Sector
Thank-you, I have a feeling from your post that the significance is mostly psychological. As humans we set goals and limits, I guess that is sort of what I've been thinking all along. In a way it's like New Years eve, or watching the odometer in your vehicle roll over. It's not realistically that significant, but as humans we make it significant and it controls our behaviour. A stepping point between where we are and where we'd like to be. I have a feeling we might see this level for a few days before advancing as most are expecting it to do.
One thing I always keep in mind is that people may sell anything investment related at a certain price, but in order to sell something, someone must buy it. Those individuals who buy are also setting new limits and expectations for what thev've purchased, so they'll have a tendancy to hold off until they feel they've reached their goal. If the volume is high at a certain level, it suggests to me that there may be a higher level to follow shortly thereafter. Of course unless the buying is lemming style and involves no research, then we are setting ourselves up. There is only a small representation in this forum of people who admire the precious metals, there are many more out there who are obviously betting on the same outcome.
sector
@CavanMan...Music Appreciation Requires Training
http://www.ganoksin.com/MetalCalc/weight.htmBehold the above site where one can calculate almost any units conversion...metric to US...Troy to metric etc.

Using that site, the exact weight of deliverable COMEX gold according to COMEX warehouse stocks data is:

5704.702 pounds of gold...83, 283 troy ounces "eligible" of .999 fine...a small armored car would do nicely for the whole lot.
Since the refineries are working ouvertime it seems unlikely that large supplies can quickly materialize.
+++++++++++++++
When will the Music start? Will we have time to exit the paper train?
I think it's a function of confidence, denial and propaganda.

The bad guys at CNBC are masters at propaganda, the power of denial is always underestimated and investor confidence takes time to die. Therefore we will have time to exit paper gold for physical.

The real question is [and theis is the toughie] how high will pog go? There WILL be a time just after the rocket launch where purchasable gold in ounce form will just dissappear.

Obstfeld, an expert on currency crises, says at this point ALL the available stocks of the currency [metal in this example] are obtained in an instant at the supported price [today's]. Then the authorities give up the support and gold rises quickly [days] to the new equiblibrium level.

History suggests a 10 fold jump to $2800 per ounce. This was rthe level after Nixon's 1971 deval.

So if the equiblibrium pog level is to be $2800 per ounce, will miner shares also rise by that amount? It's hard to envision CNBC pumping gold stocks as they did for the techiees.

Don't know. I do know that the banks that have favor now will be out of favor and the miners will have the upper hand as financial enterprises--a role reversal of sorts.



CoBra(too)
Morgan Did Not Lose Money On Their Gold Shorts, Their PARTNERSHIPS did!
last nights heading of Bill Murphy's editorial - What goes around comes around - or so they say!

... and from tomorrow on we'll watch the Olympics together -
MK - as good ole Austria is expecting some more gold ... medals.

Let the games begin ... cb2
Belgian
Duisenberg W.
In the reporting of Duisenberg's announcement (departure-2003) there was a foto session of him (Wim) in the Dutch central bank GOLD-vaults. If anyone should still doubt that the euro is to be associated with Gold (as good as)! Details dear Watson, details .
Cavan Man
Belgian
Can you provide a link to the photo?

CB2: Can we get a pix of you in a gold vault :>)...? Reading Bill B. is like breathing the fresh air at an Austrian ski resort yes?
Belgian
@ CBII ....The Physical and its proxies
OK snakeman, let's do some calculus and financial introspection, together...just the two of us.
During this POG bottoming and mini run of 20% (253$ >> 303$)
we may assume that very few (ore none) Physical holders in the US dollar block, made any substantial appreciation on their yellow in possession. This in very sharp contrast with all other Physical Advocates outside the dollar zone.
In Euroland we have quite a different picture :
ATL POG ('99) 230 � to 330 � today (plus 43%) in comparaison with a 100% profit on the goldminebag.

The main question for all mine-gamblers is "if" and "when" they will shift those mine-profits into Physical ?

1/ All linear thinkers who refer to the past 20 years of POG history, will NEVER buy any Physical !!! Never !
These goldbugs sleep with the POG 600$ target and the 10 bagger syndrome. Fair enough.

2/ All double players with Physical and mines (or other paper) are constantly tormented with the POG-4/5 figure (thousands) obsession (TG-inspired). They own (at best) a Very small amount of Physical with very little appreciation so far and a present 100% profit (paper that is !!!) on their mine holdings/*trade/*gambles.
This group of goldphiles is speculating (!) on a slow and disciplined increasing of POG with the hope (not conviction) that they can sell mineholding at 600$ and their Physical holdings will appreciate into the thousands of dollars per ounce. They made some compromise with the treasure island map. Some of them might even jump the mining ship somewhere halfway and scramble for some runaway Physical in extremis.

3/ An absolute minority (of the general public), inspired by A/FOA who has stored the bulk of its wealth in Physical Gold during a recent period of accumulation (2 years). The A & A type with 90% Physical and 10% Gold Fields for 70% of their wealth.

Goldmine holders/traders should take into consideration that at a certain POG level, goldmining does change dramatically. Once big profits are coming in on a sustained basis...lower ore grades (reserves) are mined as to preserve the richer ores for future bad times. The leverage on POG declines drastically. And POG values relatively faster than the goldmines. Sort of reversed hedging.
All this under the condition that POG is allowed to revalue progressively. Wich I personally do exclude categorically.

In analogy of all who signed the Washington Agreement...a goldmine trading halt could be agreed in case of dollar collapse emergency (US bank collapse). Such sudden and totally unexpected International Agreements can emerge out of the deep blue ! Remember that the US declared an international war and that Europ (Chirac) China and Russia, already answered loud and clear. India urged not to interfere in their tighthening relationship with Russia and China ! Don't underestimate the serieux of this geopolitical situation ! This to emphasize the probability of drastic and unexpected repercussions on the dollar situation with the euro/gold/oil-alternative concept.

I surely don't wish for a trading halt in goldmines. And BTW, who dares to gamble the bulk of its wealth in one or more goldpits ? The absurd valuation of Gold is the ultimate invitation for a once in a lifetime opportunity to store the bulk of one's wealth into that precious refined in possession. Repeat : once in a lifetime opportunity NOW ! This is nothing less than a rocksolid argumentation for leaving the goldmine temptation aside. NOW more than ever before !

As an aside : Imagine goldmines getting the status of oil producers with Regulations and Tax control. A possible furture similarity wich will make the underground yellow less shiny than it seems today ! ?
Belgian
@ CM - Duisenberg's Goldpictures.
Sorry but it was a Dutch reportage on the tele. A netpicture might pop up later ?
Duisenberg (+ later comments in intervieuws) stated that he wants to have the euro gain "dept" and broader acceptance worldwide. The French (semi imperialits) are impatiently waiting to professionalize that euro-job. Cool Dutchman Wim wanted to calm down that French europassion a bit.

There is a significant intensification on the $/� reporting during euro daytime ! As if the dollar is suspecting some sneeky euro-tactics ? Using Gold (POG) very, very cautiously to avert dollar-pressure, without any willingness to crush/crash the dollar in a brutal obvious manner. This vieuw is negative if POG returns to the 280$ zone.
CoBra(too)
Gold vs Proxy - Agrreed in parts ...
@ Belgian - you're to be commended for your stamina and more important for your input.

I still hope you'll forgive me for my western (european- as it is) thinking, in lieu of any other measure, barometer or indicator of true value.

Pouncing out the reality of gold ounces - a ploy I've been trying to get across for an eternity - is easily accepted when all else fails to hold promise of gain - though, then again try to convince the main (street) invincible idiots of CNBC and their ilk. ...

... and prol'ly think about - a great old lady of rhymes - Mechtilde von Lichnowsky (a century ago):

Nie gestatten, Wanderratten
revidieren von Papieren
wenn sie �ber Landesgrenzen
ziehen.

oder

Ziemlich schlecht
schreibt der Hecht
Liebesbriefe in der Tiefe
doch die Hechtin liest sie
hocherfreut.

oder

Saure Mienen
von Sardinen
kann man sehn
wenn man zehn
in eine Dose steckt
wo sieben liegen...

und so weiter ... wir wer'n nicht gescheiter - though I feel we're at the end Spiel ...

Thanks for your consideration and I apologise for trying to be "wise" - regards to you - cb2
RobotGuy
Milking Phase
North American markets appear to be in a milking phase these last few days. Up in the morning down in the afternoon. Watch yourselves lemmings, it's very hard to win in this type of environment. I have no idea how long investors will try this for, but whoever is losing on a daily basis is probably going to get disgruntled sooner or later. Gold on the other hand is starting to go up a little after the market close.
Trapper
The end of paper
Sir Belgian, I have read Another FOA and TG on the idea that paper money and gold paper will all become worthless when the POG reaches a certian very high level. I'm not as sure as you folks are. I agree that paper money will always go to zero someday, but in the US we have not had a complete faliure since our war Between the States. The southern paper was forced to zero by the North's win but it was replaced by the North's new paper. I'm sure that things can and will get very bad but for our goverment to keep control the people will have to be given a medium of exchange i.e. money. The new money could be AU & AG but where will that leave us who NOW have AU & AG money in our hole in the floor. We could all be laid low by a goverment flood of new AU & AG money those value will be set by goverment decree rather that 5the free market.Control is thier game. I see another goverment attempt for some digital money making gold stocks still having good value in the end. Good day.
RJ
uponroof
The case for gold stocks
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/klombies/020602/klombies020602.htmlForgive the attention to PAPER stocks for a moment. I know how sensitive some are to paper at this site but I believe we are about to experience a once in a lifetime opportunity and all thoughts should be considered. I am a 40-40-20 man which means 40% in physical and stocks, 20% in options. That said here goes.
********

The Klombies piece (above link) has an intersting bit about the leverage of gold stocks:

"...At bear market lows for gold there is very little speculative interest in the gold mining shares. The ratio between gold and the XAU tends to move up to about 5:1. At bull market highs, however, this ratio tends to move down to around 3:1.

Within the range of these two levels- 5:1 and 3:1- one can see why the gold mining equity sector can be both punishing and extremely rewarding. At $300 per ounce for gold the XAU can easily range from a low of around 60 to a high of 100, depending on the market's view of whether that price for gold is 'low' or 'high'. At present the ratio is recovering from the extreme lows reached at the end of 2000 and is nicely confirming the current strength in gold itself..."
********

Klombies does a nice job of marrying TA and fundamentals in his report, but what about the broader underlying market factors?...

Here is a repost pertaining to this very issue (with thanks to loyd)...

"The Morgan Stanley analyst recently sent out a big overview report. He pulled together all his little reports into a big report and made it into a 30 page tome.

One of his key conclusions was that everyone should have 4%-5% in his metals recommendations.

Good Lord.....I almost laughed.

"everyone"? I know he's trying. And perhaps he's not been through even one cycle, they being interminable, nearly lifelong affairs and that he is probably a best student and business school whiz; but gee ... knows he what he prescribes?

Consider Fidelity alone. They manage over $850 billion. If they were to take his advise, they would purchase up to $42 billion of gold mining company shares. But we all know that the entire global gold industry has a market capitalization just short of that amount.

...and there are so many other investors to satisify..."
********

Given the tiny 40+ billion dollar market cap of the entire gold mining industry. (yes read that one more time, $40+ billion buys all the gold mines in the world) we conclude the market is easily influenced. (a side note...even if Central Banks decide to sell ALL their gold, that in itself is only $375 billion)

Putting that into perspective, AOL market cap is 104 billion, GE's is 359 billion, Microsoft's is 330 billion, TYCO is 44 billion and JPM's is 46 billion (and dropping quickly).

GOLD IS A TEENY TINY MARKET! This includes all (3) entities, physical, futures and stocks.

Yet at the same time it is the most well known commodity in the world in terms of safety and 'value'. Gold benefits from years of trusted service through all generations from the start of recorded history.

In short it has an excellent reputation which may overwhelm anything negative the last experience of bubble bursting has left on the herd's psyche. 'Gold' is something grandfather believed in, the perfect antithesis and balm for the now openly loathed dot.com stocks.

Once the gold sector heats up, I believe the herd will evaluate and commit with fevered frenzy. Remember, we're not talking about a large movement to pump shares up....only a fraction of what was spent on techs will suffice nicely. We shall soon see me thinks.

Cheers
bob leppo
Japan is the second Enron
Japan plus Enron equals POG+I just read in todays NYTimes an article about the Japanese government bond (10 year) going down so much that the interest rate is up to over- wait for it- 1.5%. I think the Japanese governments willingness to see the yen weaken is catching up with it in the form of rising inflation fears (hence dropping long term bond prices). Meanwhile the price of gold in yen is in a vigorous bull market and as we have all read the Japanese are increasing their gold purchases. The NYTimes article also said that the Japanese government had marketed a chunk of short term government paper (6 months I think) and the issue was 140 times over subscribed- that is there was 2 Trillion US dollars worth of demand for this paper...Wow!...

I think the odds are good that Japanese buying of gold along with the impact of Enron in shaking investor confidence in the prudence of having so much money tied up in stocks will be the two most important drivers of the price of gold up from here. Of course I am talking my game as I am long the Comex gold future (got a stop on @ half at $296 as a result of bitter recent experience FWIW)
Black Blade
Gold Holds Over $300.00
http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metalsGold is holding up well at $302.40 up $3.40 (currently). If this level can be maintained we might have established a new floor for support that we can build off of toward $325.00 or better for a new support level. Hopefully into the $380.00 to $420.00 range (or higher) in a few weeks. The Global Economy is toast and people (outside of the US) are discovering Gold as a wealth preservation vehicle (note Japan, Russia, China, etc.). When those in the US wake up the price will be much higher and like Wall Street analysts, they too will be late to the party. Then Gold could easily launch to $600.00/oz. and beyond.

- Black Blade
sector
The Japanese 900 Pound Gorilla and O'Neill's Tears
February 7, 2002

Japanese Turn From Banks to Gold

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Filed at 12:23 p.m. ET

TOKYO (AP) -- With their banks battling a recession and bad loans, some Japanese, worried about the imminent end of a blanket guarantee on their savings, are sinking their money into something that looks more solid -- gold.

Sales of $10,000 gold bars at Tanaka Kikinzoku Jewelry in downtown Tokyo have more than doubled in the past several months, company officials said Thursday. They refused to give specific figures, but said some customers have bought as many as 40 of the 2.2-pound bars.

``The end of the government insurance on savings is a big factor,'' jewelry company spokesman Masakazu Tanaka said. ``People are looking for a secure place to put their money.''

The trend in Japan is contributing to a worldwide increase in the demand for gold. Gold futures broke above $300 an ounce for the first time in two years Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, before easing later in the day, and traded above $300 in London Thursday.
..."
++++++++++++++

Well, well, well! The NYT's Associated Press writing about gold.
The Treasury men must have fallen asleep on the job.

No wonder SECTREAS O'Neill was rumoured to have "cried" [with real tears] in his Senate testimony today.
uponroof
sector
Heard about O'Neill's Senate tears.

The stress must be enormous.

This guy is a square peg in a round hole if ever there was one. Lying, kiniving, and corruption is not his forte. I still think he will come clean (eventually) as you perhaps do. For now he is convinced, that for the best of the country, he must go along with this 'policy' which breaks his heart....not to mention possibly ruin his career and reputation. Can't wait to read his book years from now.
Black Blade
BANK'S $29 TRILLION DERIVATIVES BET IS VERY RISKY By JOHN CRUDELE
http://www.nypost.com/business/40850.htm
February 7, 2002 -- IS J.P. Morgan Chase too big to bail?

Snippit:

Last week I posed the more common question: Was the bank too big to fail, or allowed to fail by the government. It's a logical question since J.P. Morgan Chase has had a string of bad luck recently, including involvement with Enron.

The bank says its luck hasn't been as bad as it looks, and I'll get to that in a minute. But J.P. Morgan chief exec William Harrison admitted publicly yesterday that the bank had assumed too much risk in dealings with Enron.

But I saved potentially the most ominous and admittedly most confusing of J.P. Morgan Chase's bets for last - derivatives. Lot and lots and lots of derivatives. Enough derivative exposure, in fact, to dwarf the entire gross domestic product of the United States. Just how massive is Morgan's derivative gamble? Get this - it has a potential, or notional, value of $29 trillion. That is in addition to net credit exposure of $94.7 billion.

Trillions in derivatives. As in three times the nation's entire annual gross domestic product. Here is another comparison to consider: Citigroup, another giant bank, only has $9 trillion in derivative exposure.

Says Jim Grant of Grant's Interest Rate Observer: "So dominant is Morgan Chase in the derivatives market that its exposures look like typographical errors."


Black Blade: Looks like Japan-style economic problems are about to land on US shores. I have harped on this in the past. This is a very ugly situation that will extinguish the US economy if these derivatives blowup on JPMC.

BTW, the CEI William Harrison and others at JPMC said that they "did not lose money on Gold trades". Of course not - they simply moved subsidiaries and partnerships offshore (mostly to London) when the law required disclosure of derivative exposure in corporate reports.
Black Blade
Gold's swift rally may spark scramble
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B3FCD2375%2D0D0E%2D4B9F%2D8102%2D848F0301E960%7D&siteid=mktw
Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - Now comes the hard part in the $300-plus gold rally: finding the neglected mining stocks. Problem is, there aren't many. The entire category of gold mining stocks, from the Newmont Mining giants to the Vancouver-listed juniors, doesn't exceed $50 billion of market capitalization. "Up until three weeks ago the entire market cap of the book was smaller than McDonalds," said John Hathaway, whose $30 million Tocqueville Gold Fund is up 29 percent since Jan. 2.

Yet gold's optimists, having waited almost six years for a sustained rally in bullion prices, are not about to give up. Some see the price of the metal making $20 and $30 daily moves. As Franco-Nevada co-founder Pierre Lassonde explained to me, each $10 rise in gold's price magnifies an established mining company's pretax cash flow.

Anglogold and other hedgers, like Barrick Gold, are likely to reduce their so-called hedge books if gold prices continue their rally. "Gold shares traditionally have an option premium built into them, because of the gold they have in reserve," Bryan says from New York. "That's why they tend to be so expensive on a cash-flow basis. But as they sell forward, they lose that option premium. The ones that put an end to it could regain that premium."


Black Blade: Actually if the POG rallies hard, then the mega-hedgers will be outta business. The day of the hedger is over and any Gold company that insists on hedging now will likely face shareholder lawsuits. There will be no additional supply from mines for several years anyway due to the length of time to permit, start up and mine the ore. In the US, mining is dead and will always be so as it is much easier to explore and mine overseas. Add to that the anti-mining culture in the US and it becomes obvious that the existing Gold mines in the US are likely to be among the last. Since the US is the second largest producer in the World, there will be a decreasing supply of Gold in the short to intermediate term. Unfortunately a lot of miners better practice saying the words "do you want fries with that sir?"
John Doe
Clint H
Your problem set me to thinking where the equity markets have come to and where they "should" be, if things were to make economic sense.

Assuming that the beginning of the bull run started near fair value in early 1982, using 7% compounded growth the S&P500 should have gained about 300%, dividends included. Instead, the S&P was up about 1600%, with the only down year prior to 2000 being a 3% loss in 1990. An impressive record to be sure, but likely neither sustainable nor repeatable.

It's getting to be the same old litany, but during this period we have seen the degeneration of "investment", the rise of gross speculation, the installation of the Greenspan Put, accelerating global monetary and economic volatility, currency & gold rigging, the perversion of accounting, Bubble TV, falsification of economic statistics, a massive and ongoing trade deficit, rapid debt expansion, a collapse in interest rates, and the floating of companies that have never made a dime, never will, and apparently, were never expected to. Again, an impressive record, but not really sustainable or repeatable.

By the above reasoning, the S&P is overvalued by something like 300%, meaning a fall by three-fourths, or from around 1100 to around 300, would bring us near the long term 7% growth line. Interestingly, drawing a trend line from the early 80's initial, upward-sloping base to present induces the same conclusion.
Black Blade
Administration Concerned About Excessive GSE Debt
http://www.comstockfunds.com/index.cfm?act=Newsletter.cfm&CFID=517917&CFTOKEN=34302899&category=Comstock%20Daily%20Comment≠wsletterid=651&menugroup=Home&aol=1
Snippit:

The Bush administration has now officially joined us in being concerned about excessive amounts of debt. In its fiscal 2003 budget document the administration said that total debt outstanding for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (known as GSEs) had climbed from $518 billion in September 1997 to $1.26 trillion in September 2001, an annual growth rate of 25% a year. The debt helped fund a 150% increase in mortgage asset portfolios and a 40% rise in guarantees of mortgage-backed securities. The report noted that while the credit quality of the loans held or guaranteed by the two GSEs had benefited from the strong housing market, the companies had actively increased their purchases of riskier sub-prime loans. The report added that although both companies tried to limit the risks through various risk-management measures, these techniques "do not eliminate all the risk associated with funding long-term, mostly fixed-rate assets that have uncertain payment streams."

The administration report also stated that, "Furthermore, the hedging transactions transform credit or interest-rate risk into counterpart risk (the risk that a counterparty of a hedging transaction fails to honor the contract). Thus, the GSEs management of counterparty risk is of increasing importance."

Black Blade: Many have said that the next bubble to pop will be the "Housing Sector". As the economy crumbles, we could see a lot of risk for these GSE's. The question is will the Government bail out these counter-parties? The government has stated recently that these are not "Government Guaranteed". In view of the sinking US economy, it looks more like Japan all the time. Looks like another scandal sits right around the corner. We live in "Interesting Times".
Strad Master
Interesting site
http://www.musil.blogspot.comI don't know how many of you enjoyed the long posting I put up about Enron the other night, but the guy who wrote it - Robert Musil - seems to be particulary well-informed about such things. Above is a link to the site where he periodically posts his thougts on a variety of subjects. (Most recently they center around Enron.) Some of you may find it to be interesting and illuminating and so may wish to bookmark it. .

Gold seems to be steadily percolating upward! Via con Dios!!
Belgian
Gold....something grandfather believed in !
I liked this one upon the roof. And indeed, you gave some evidence of how teeny tiny this goldmarket is. But you are comparing present (!) obscene low Gold undervaluation(s) with
maniacal high overvaluations of paper(stocks). Do you feel something doesn't add up here ? Yes you do ! (P/E GE=40-pro forma ?)

Japaneze buying ? Haven't seen POG rises in the far east !
And aren't the Indians countering this uptake with less buying ? TG, rightly suggested that individual Gold buying can't move, substantially, the valuation of 140.000 tonnes of the above refined ! It takes forces of a complete different nature to obtain the inevitable (planned) re-valuation !!!
The dominance of monetary Gold is far superior on the occasional constraints of commodity Gold (or paper gold).
Recently, POG comes under up-pressure with NY opening. The previous NY knock down effect has stopped (temporary-?). Significant, no ?

The democrats (US) must soon come up with something to bother for the Bush clan. Democrats need things to turn bad, wich went good during their 8 years of ruling. The stockmarket and the dollar !? And the Clintonistas accumulated a lot of gold-knowhow.
Or is it the war budged + employment that unbalances the POG management ? (Sharon pressure-? And Euro parliament voting support for YA)(This WE European meeting with inroom opinion on US war)









sector
@Black Blade...Crudele's JPMC...Not IF their Derivatives "Blow UP"...
...but when.

See, interest rate derivatives are linked to gold.

Actually a brilliant Professor reported this fact in 1988...a Harvard Professor who has come all the way home to be Chancellor of that great institution. This learned wise man found that there is an historic link between real interest rates and gold. Gold goes up...real rates interest go down...an inverse relationship. Inflation is the same as negative real rates. So gold should go up with inflation according to this theory. We have inflation now in equity assets...loads of inflation and, if you look, negative real interest rates.

The economists loved the discovery. So as gold goes up through $300 on the way to...pick a number with 4 digits...interest rates will skyrocket. This is not conjecture the Harvard Professor said so.

Gold has been held back...prerssurizing a rocket booster...it should have risen years ago...according to the Harvard Chancellor's theory.

JPMCs low volatility IRDs will detonate as gold rises...it's a sure thing. The Fed's biggest bank will emulate Argentina.

The Professors name? Lawrence Summers.
Black Blade
Tyco's TyCom Unit Cutting 1,000 Jobs
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020207/business_manufacturing_tyco_dc_4.html
Snippit:

BOSTON (Reuters) - Tyco International Ltd. (NYSE:TYC) on Thursday said about 1,000 jobs would be eliminated at its undersea fiber-optic cable business, TyCom Ltd., amid continued weakness in the telecommunications industry.

Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" grows in spite of the BLS "seasonally adjusted" data. There are millions of US workers outta work and many are simply giving up in face of a deteriorating US economy. As the benefits run out they either become under-employed, live off credit cards and a prayer, or work "off the books". Get prepared - get outta debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, have cash on hand for several months expenses, and get food and basic necessities stored away.
Black Blade
Sector
I believe that the big "Blow Up" day could be fast approaching. What makes the JPMC fellas think that they are any smarter than the fellas at Enron? Cheers!

- Black Blade
Black Blade
Treasury secretary O'Neill seems near tears in confrontation with senator at hearing
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020207/ap_to_po/o_neill_byrd_1

Snippit:

During a Senate Budget Committee hearing, an angry Sen. Robert Byrd, D-W.Va., a member of Congress since 1953, engaged O'Neill in a remarkably emotional exchange for nearly 15 minutes. Afterward, O'Neill said he had responded to Byrd with "fire."

At several points, Byrd waved President Bush's new budget, which used a picture of Gulliver tied down by Lilliputians to criticize congressional constraints on decision-making by federal agencies. "I just want to remind you, Mr. Secretary, that a lot of us were here before you came," Byrd, 84, told O'Neill, whose eyes seemed teary at points. "And with all due respect to you, you're not Alexander Hamilton," the nation's first Treasury secretary and a founding father.

O'Neill, 66, pausing to gather himself, answered from the witness table in a voice quavering with emotion. "I've dedicated my life to doing what I can to get rid of rules that limit human potential. And I'm not going to stop," O'Neill said. Prior to joining the Bush administration, O'Neill had been chairman of Alcoa Inc., where he won praise for management innovations that enhanced the aluminum producer's profits.

The only specific rules that O'Neill pointedly cited on Thursday as unjust were "rules that said, 'Coloreds cannot enter here.'" Though O'Neill did not mention it, when Byrd was younger he was a member of the Ku Klux Klan, which he has since renounced.

Black Blade: I suppose that next we can see O'Neill and Byrd in a "Cage Match" on pay-per-view". This testimony was pretty funny though.

BTW, a replay is on CNBC in a few minutes.
slingshot
There're still buying.
Ski, How ya doing?Just had to poke my nose over at the coin dealer with all excitement for breaking $300.00 Gold.
The first dealer opens 1/2 hour before the other and I wanted to get there when he first opened. He opens the door and greets me with, We are out of 1 oz. gold eagles.
Looking at the Gold display there was only a few gold pieces , mostly 1/10 and 1/4 coins. Moving over to the silver case there was no 1 0z,10 oz. and the two 100oz. bars all gone.
The usual high price silver eagles and the fancy silver coins still in place. Although he had increased his stock in these.

Moving on to the second dealer I was happy to see him open an order he just recieved and managed to purchase what I wanted. When I went to pay the phone rings at the counter and this person wants to sell his Gold Eagles. Yep gold at $300.00 and this person is selling. How many others doing the same?

One of these times I will have to go to a dealer on the other side of town and the traffic is killer;)

Slingshot
Black Blade
Pentair to Cut 500 More Jobs
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/020207/pentair_job_cuts_1.html
Snippit:

Pentair Takes $41 Million Restructuring Charge, Will Cut Some 500 More Jobs

Black Blade: More "Bones".
Cavan Man
POG
UP in $3-$5 range. Market seems resiliant but will it run away?
Canuck
Important Enron Question
Hope that Pizz has an opinion.

I just heard on the financial news that so far 5 people have appeared for Enron hearings. The first 4 pleaded the 5th and today Fastow testified that he knew nothing.

Question:

What is the possibility that this 'Enron' thing will die off and very slowly be 'swept' under the carpet?

Canuck.
Canuck
Missed a question
Is the 5 person testimony as stated so far correct?
timbervision
Topaz and Belgian
Thank you Topaz for your reply to my question this morning. I appreciate your thoughts and the time taken. As well thank you Belgian for your posts today which also clearly went to the heart of my question.
Any diversified portfolio today must begin with gold bullion.
Timbervision
nickel62
Gold trading at $303.50 in Sydney!
As gold approaches the $304 price I hope that our long journey through darkness might finally be ending. My God it has been a long, long manipulation by these b###a#ds!
Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD
Your introduction to gold -- At bookstores, or order directly for the "insider" discount!
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

ABCs of Au by MK

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"Gold will play a critically important role in American investment portfolios in the years to come. This book provides investors a basic education on private gold ownership from one of the nation's top experts." --Rep. Ron Paul, Texas, U.S. House of Representatives

Please Remember: It is your purchase from Centennial Precious Metals / USAGOLD that nourishes these pages.

uponroof
Belgian
Hello my friend,

You bring up a good point in that paper markets have been grossly over valued or 'inflated' whereas gold has suffered consequentially in equally 'deflationary' measures. All by design, all intentional.

THEN.....

A crisis of confidence comes upon us...

Bert Parks smiling, his hand flowing in front, begins singing that traditional favorite (music please) ....."THERE SHE GOES......MISS LOSS OF CONFIDENCE" as the beautiful young thing stumbles off the catwalk in a heap.

Things are swiftly changing. It's nothing less than an ugly downward spiral. Money that's inflated these entities is now evaporating into thin air. As it dissapears the leverage for inflating gold stocks goes with it. Notice I said stocks not physical.

But lets talk stocks for now...

The deciding moment for these 'at risk' dollars will be in how quickly their owners decide to exchange them for real wealth (gold vehicles). Once these at risk dollars find safe haven in the gold sector their life span improves. Notice I said improves (eternal life belongs to physical only).

I am convinced there is enough 'seed money' at work now to alert the herd of the gold stock oasis in the dessert. The media attention it is garnering today is more than enough to start a 'Save the Dollars' campaign rivaling Greenpeace. Can't you see a pamphlet with the image of a bloodied baby dollar on it? Hee hee hee.

Yes there is a downdraft...perhaps even a strong suction which stands to pull ALL (including gold) stocks down as this money is vaporized. But the current upward action in the sector is encouraging given it's in the face of broad market losses 5 days running.

Tommorrow, if gold continues perking, gold stocks should move again. Let's hope.

One more crisis alert (warning), or worse yet, report (no warning), and I believe we will have too many dollars trying to hide in the teeny tiny gold stock haven...which is a good thing.

Who says inflation can't pay off.

Cheers.
Canuck
@ Stranger
NEM and FN have been in an exact lockstep these last couple weeks. Kinda nice to see.

Both stocks a couple nickels lower today, anything to be concerned about?

Canuck.

Canuck
Anybody?
Last week I saw YEN/Dollar at 132, anybody have the number today?
Black Blade
Canuck - Currency Converter
http://www.xe.com/ucc/Hi Guy,

Try out this currency converter at the link. You can also use it for Gold and Silver. Currently $1.00 = Y133.961. Cheers!

- Black Blade
uponroof
Unwinding hydralic equipment
Looks like it might take some hydralic equipment to penetrate the 305-307 resistence....Hey fellas, send up Booby Goldsell and his 50% hedged forward hydralic piston. After the cieling is breached we might need some hydralic equipment to remove the smiles from our faces. Some analysts saying 340+ next stop. Cheers.
Canuck
?
One of Greenspan's famous paragraphs:

"The vast majority of privately negotiated OTC contracts are settled in cash rather than through delivery. Cash settlement typically is based on a rate or price in a highly liquid market with a very large or virtually unlimited deliverable supply, for example, LIBOR or the spot dollar-yen exchange rate. To be sure, there are a limited number of OTC derivative contracts that apply to nonfinancial underlying assets. There is a significant business in oil-based derivatives, for example. But unlike farm crops, especially near the end of a crop season, private counterparties in oil contracts have virtually no ability to restrict the worldwide supply of this commodity. (Even OPEC has been less than successful over the years.) Nor can private counterparties restrict supplies of gold, another commodity whose derivatives are often traded over-the-counter, where central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise."

Is he saying that OTC derivatives cannot influence supply of gold, thus price and is he correct?
Canuck
@ BB
Thanks buddy.

Have you seen a 'convertor' that one can graph conversion over a specfic time. I once had one but it showed a table, not very visual.

Canuck
Canuck
Here's the currency convertor (selectable history) but table form
Black Blade
Canuck - Graphs?
Sorry, I can't help you there. Maybe you can cut and paste historical data into a spreadsheet and try it that way.

- Black Blade
TownCrier
Fed using larger buckets these days to add funds -- $12.5 billion
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020207/nat000104_1.htmlWhile the money markets this morning were trading overnight funds on par with the FOMC target, it is instructive that the Federal Reserve nevertheless felt compelled to add $12.5 billion in temporary funds to the reserves of the banking system ($6.5 billion overnight, $6 billion 28-day RPs).

A person doesn't have to look too far back to recall the days when $2 billion operations of 28-day duration arrived on the scene as a monetary policy tool, and quickly became a regular part of the landscape. More recently they gave way to 28-day repos typically of $3-4 billion in size; and from evidence of the past two weeks these longer-term repos have seemingly given way to money-making operations of even larger size -- $5 to $6 billion.

If you think for a moment that our financial system is the same as it ever was, you had better think again. Things, they are a changin', and this is but one small item as example. Big picture consequences? As we've said before, gold is in for a helluva ride.

R.
anotheraussie
Hedged Miners
A question for all.

I do not understand why hedged miners will crash as gold goes higher. If the miner can deliver his mined gold into the forward sale he still makes profit albeit not as much if spot has gone past this forward sale amount. I am assuming the miners you are talking about can not do this or I am not understanding hedging correctly.

I have looked for explanations but no person really gets to the machanics of how this works. The discuusion assumes understanding which I do not have.

Thank you for any information or leads to information you can provide
Cavan Man
Hey, Canuck.......
The "...to the best of my knowledge (everything was okey dokey)" defense was taken by the former CEO a Mr. Skilling today. The other alleged "economic terrorists" (an unidentified Congressman's quote) took the fifth. Tonight they are thanking Thomas Jefferson and his "Founding Brothers" for their foresight and concern for liberty and freedom. Of course, they are brushing up on the Bill of Rights and other fundamental sources of inspiration to legal defense while they await the next move on the chess board.

We've all been too clever; much too clever. I will take my share of blame but I feel the larger portions should be allotted to the best and the brightest who have "clevered themselves into a corner" in the words of a friend of mine. I repost a quote from this morning's Daily reckoning written by Bill Bonner a man who apparently has made a fortune these last twenty years going with the flow of the financial universe. Today, he is ringing the alarm bell in eloquent, non-threatening prose.

Snippet:

Frank Partnoy, law professor and former Wall Street
derivatives specialist, recently testified before
Congress:

"Enron has been compared to Long-term Capital
Management...the hedge fund that lost $4.6 billion on
more than $1 trillion of derivatives and was rescued in
September 1998 in a private bailout engineered by the
New York Federal Reserve. For the past several weeks, I
have conducted my own investigation into Enron, and I
believe the comparison is very inapt. Yes, there are
similarities in both firms' use and abuse of financial
derivatives. But the scope of Enron's problems and their
effects on its investors and employees are far more
sweeping.

"According to Enron's most recent annual report, the
firm made more money trading derivatives in the year
2000 alone than Long-Term Capital Management made in its
entire history. Long-Term Capital Management generated
losses of a few billion dollars; by contrast, Enron not
only wiped out $70 billion of shareholder value, but
also defaulted on tens of billions of dollars of debts.
Long-Term Capital Management employed only 200 people
worldwide, many of whom simply started a new hedge fund
after the bailout, while Enron employed 20,000 people,
more than 4,000 of whom lost their life savings as
Enron's stock plummeted last fall.

"In short, Enron makes Long-Term Capital Management look
like a lemonade stand."

How many Enrons are out there? Maybe many.

CM: Will Enron be slipped under the rug? Well, if the above perspective on the situation is 50% correct--if the facts are FACTS-- I doubt it. How could it be? In fact, I would wager you a Moosehead that right now there is a meeting somewhere and it is a "crisis" type of session/meeting. Well, perhaps they've adjourned for dinner.

Look, three years ago I bought my first gold coins from CPM here becausse I was looking at the commodity case and supply/demand fundamentals. Later I got hooked on the "inflation" theory. Now, and for some time, I have been thinking long and hard on the geo-political and global monetary issues and potential contingency plans of the players involved. Do you play chess? What I am trying to say is I only wanted to buy low and sell high. Now, I have an increasing sense of dread.

There is a lot of "book cooking" going on right here in NA. Got it? I think NA is in deep #$%@ but NOT long term. if I were you, I would bias to metal. Good luck pal..CM

PS: There is a really good article at Forbes.com dated 2-4 I think on the situation in Japan. You should read it.
Pizz
Canuck - #Enron?
The media will back off just as soon as someone tells them that gross mismanagement is not a felony. The politicians will try to keep it alive until November.

The damage that has been done will show in Enron related writeoff's and tightening accounting standards. The ensuing loss of faith in our capitalistic system is where the real damage has been done.

Subject Change! Junior Gold Stocks. I'm in uponroof's 40-40-20 camp and I think there is going to be one whole heck of a lot of fiat made over the next couple years. When the hot money hits that small float --- they won't be able to split the stocks fast enough. Internet stocks used to trade 100 times AIR, what do you think people will pay for a few billion bucks in the ground when they're trying to get even????Going to be just halarious watching the Kitcoites try to trade them. I'll bet 90% of them sell out about 18 months too early.

I'm not too worried about mine paper buring. The futures paper will go long before. Even FOA said somewhere there would be some fiat made in unhedged mines. The only problem will be that it will be darn hard to find physical to buy with your profits. I'm still buying both.

Pizz
Cavan Man
PS Canuck.......
About a year after the LTCM bailout it was reported in the Wall Street Journal on page one that, and I paraphrase, "..the global economy would have locked up without the FED engineered bailout". The article went on to explain the whole sordid and rather frightening affair. So, I ask you, what is the topic every du jour at the FED and Treasury? Better question:

Why and whither the Euro?
Cavan Man
Pizz
Are you discounting the quantification of extent. You are closer to this type of action than I am. What say ye?

Please convince me I am overly concerned. I would really like to be convinced.
Canuck
CM, Pizz
I agree with you guys; I'm firmly in the camp that this thing is WAY TOO BIG to be swept under the carpet. I'm fishing around to remove that last 'shadow of doubt'.

Great to see gold crack and close over the $298. I was beginning to freak out, bust 298, London goes on a solo tear to 307 and then NY whacks and closes at 297, down a buck.

I was sweating bullets (gold bullets mind you!)

I hope gold pieces 302 tomorrow, a close of 303+ would make my (our) week.

Off to golden-land.........zzzzzzzzzz

A demain.

Canuck.

P.S.: Had a good laugh at the wife tonight, I sat alone in the living room with the better half within earshot. It was 6:00 and I advised her Aussie was about to open (as I often do). At 6:00 on the nose I yelled "gold up 90 bucks". She let a war-hoop out of her that startled the kids. I smirked in the living room "She's hooked".
A Canadian
@ anotheraussie

Shareholders will reject a nonperformer during boom times, but more importantly, some of these greedy *astards will actually forward sell in excess of future production thinking they can easily buy depressed spot to cover. If spot is very angry he will bankrupt them.
Pizz
Cavan Man
They have to prove it and no one is talking except to point fingers at someone else.

I was hired by a small company shortly after they went public in the late 80's. The public accountants gave them a clean opinion, but the field auditors were nervous. They managed to convince the partner in charge (who was being wined, womened, and dined) to hire a corporate controller (me) to help the CFO staighten things out. They had used the public money to expand 60+ locations in 15 states in less than a year - along with a computer conversion.

To make a long story short, the CEO had the books pumped thru "mismanaged" inventory to the tune of more money than they had made (on paper) in the last five years. The goal was to pump and dump the stock. The CFO had been the controller of another company and had watched his CFO make a few million doing it. It took me three months to figure out how they were doing it, but the books and records were so screwed up and so many people were involved and being paid off thru expense accounts, bloated salaries and bonuses, that the end result was a big mess. THEY PLAN THE BIG MESS SO IF IT DOESN'T WORK, NO ONE GOES TO JAIL.

A week before the auditors came in to do "due dilligence" on a secondary bond offering (they were out of money), I was offered a block of options. I refused and they fired me. I mailed my workpapers to the accountants. Two years later the SEC "invited" me to their offices, since the company had gone under. I told them my interpretation of what they had done, and they told me "Gross Mismanagement is not a felony." The CFO was barred from ever being an officer in a public corporation, The auditing firm fired the partner in charge, and the CEO and General Manager both moved out of state and started another small business (privately held).

I have no faith in the legal system to prosecute this type of "theft".

Pizz
Solomon Weaver
Reuters now writing . . .

Limp economy, rate cuts and fear trigger gold rush
February 07, 2002 03:56:00 AM ET


By James Regan

SYDNEY, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Economic slowing, a barrage of interest rate cuts and people just plain scared about the future have helped put a polish on gold bullion not seen in years.

Gold shone again on Thursday, skipping back above US$300 an ounce as investors everywhere displayed a passion for bullion. The average price for the last quarter was $278 an ounce.

No one knows how long it will last, but bullion prices haven't been as high since Europe's most powerful central banks agreed to rein in sales more than two years ago.

Analysts point to rekindled recognition of gold's better-than-money-in-the-bank reputation in times of uncertainty for the rush.

Tarnished as an investment, first by currencies and later by dot-coms, gold is suddenly good again.

"In the wake of the September 11 attacks in the United States, gold is seen as a better buy," Commonwealth Bank of Australia commodities strategist David Thurtell said.

Gold see-sawed on either side of $300 an ounce in a hectic day of trading in Asia, settling around $299 an ounce in Hong Kong before opening in London at its highest in two years.

"Everybody is in the market," Desmond Wong, senior trader at Standard London (Asia) in Hong Kong, said.

Demand for gold in Japan has been so strong that trading in gold futures on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange was halted for a while on Wednesday when a rush of orders overloaded the market's computer system. Volume hit a record high on Thursday.

ANYONE FOR GOLF?

A mistrust of banks in Japan is fuelling the rush.

In the mining regions of outback Australia, where one town hopes gold fever will bring in enough extra revenue to build a new golf course, prospectors are dusting off drill rigs and getting ready to hire more staff.

"This town has weathered a prolonged downturn and there is no reason now why it should not be home to a world class golf course," said Tony Robson, the mayor of Kalgoorlie, a parched mining town 500 kms east of the Indian Ocean.

Australia's unofficial index of exploration companies has jumped 13.5 percent in the last month, as the prospects of cornering more funds for exploring increases.

"This is a very exciting time," said Ian Walker, managing director of Metex Resources NL , which is gearing up for more exploration after announcing A$3 million (US$1.5 million) in new capital raisings.

Australia's gold mining sector, the third largest after South Africa and the U.S., is notorious for selling millions of ounces of gold into commodity markets at the first hint that prices are on the way up, effectively cutting off any rally at the legs.

HEDGING DOWN, GOLD UP

But with fewer fixed price hedge sales on their books than in the past and forecasts for hoarding to widen a supply deficit, there is less pressure to cash in quickly, analysts said.

Critics of hedging say the practice stifles upward movement in gold by erecting artificial price caps.

"We are seeing a lot less hedging among Australian miners, which is helping sustain the price," Glen Coglan, of Macquarie Financial Services in Kalgoorlie said.

U.S.-based Newmont Mining Corp (NEM) has vowed to dismantle some eight million ounces of hedges held by Normandy Mining Ltd after it completes a takeover of the Australian mining house later this month.

"That will really send a signal to the market that will flow into gold," Mike Ivey, managing director of Croesus Mining NL , said.

South Africa's AngloGold Ltd sees its hedges falling some six million ounces this year.

Even so, there are no guarantees gold will not recoil as quickly as it rose, Eagle Mining Analyst Keith Goode said.

In October 1999, the price jumped to around $338 but the rally ended within weeks. REUTERS

� 2002 Reuters


Pizz
Some non-gold advice
I'm taking a much needed vacation in about 8 days. Takin' the wife to Maui for our 25th. Can anyone who's been there recommend a good restaurant? Small, atmosphere, lobster for her and prime rib and good vino for me.

(I'm planning to pay with a maple - we'll see if gold is money or not!)

Pizz
auenboy
dinner in maui
I think that David Paul's will fit the bill for a wonderful 25th. But in 8 days you may only need a half a maple Good luck Have Fun I envy you
Pizz
auenboy
Thanks. (the other half ounce is for the GOOD vino, and the way these markets are moving, I may get one to go!!)

thanks again

Pizz
John Doe
Canuck
"Nor can private counterparties restrict supplies of gold, another commodity whose derivatives are often traded over-the-counter, where central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise." - FED Chairman, Alan Greenspan

Canuck: Is he saying that OTC derivatives cannot influence supply of gold, thus price and is he correct?

JD: Yes, I think that is essentially what he is saying. But, as with all things Greenspan, one must discern what he is NOT saying:

1) He is not saying all "private counterparties", i.e., those on the other side of the derivative contract, deal only in paper. For example, sometimes ABX acts as a miner, and at other times, like when it engages in forward sales, it is first the "private counterparty" and then, (potentially) sometime in the future, it will be the miner that will supply the gold specified in the forward contract.

2) He apparently does not consider the central banks "private counterparties", as they are the entities that will "correct" the nefarious, potential, supply-restricting, monopoly activities of the "private counterparties" (evidence of which, by the way, I've scant evidence, if any). Yet, do not the central banks, acting as swing producer, place this gold into "private counterparty" hands via their forward sales?

3) He does not say that the central banks will "withdraw existing leases (or unencumbered bullion, for that matter) in increasing quantities should the price FALL." So, one can read this to mean that restricting supply above the natural, free market economic baseline is "bad" (if it occurs at all), but creating mechanisms to flood the market is "good", or at least "not bad", even if it nearly collapses the mining industry, and regardless, apparently, of any long-run economic consequences such CB manipulation might give rise to.

But regardless, please note that "increasing quantities" is not the same as "infinite quantities".
John Doe
anotheraussie - hedger risks
I can think of three reasons a hedger might crash or at least underperform:

1) If the hedger sells forward to such a degree that their production timetable does not adequately meet their forward sales delivery dates and no additional CB gold is forthcoming. If the forwards must be rolled over at prohibitively higher gold prices (if they can be rolled at all), the miner will face severe losses, thus impacting the stock price.

2) If too much production is rolled forward even with adequate production to meet deliveries, any rapid price rise in gold will leave the miner with relatively stagnant performance. This may not crash the stock, per se, but those holding the stock with the expectation of price appreciation will dump it because it will severely underperform its peers.

3) Some miners, especially of the "highly sophisticated hedgers" ilk, may have become more hedge fund than miner. The current Enron investigation makes one speculate what financial wonders are carried on and off the balance sheet of this class of miner and how that might impact financial results going forward.
anotheraussie
Hedger Risks
A Canadian and John Doe

Thanks for your help.
Mr Gresham
Breaching 306?
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDOGreat posts today, all. Too much of our experience together these past years is coming to the fore to respond adequately.

It is just so interesting that we few ("band of brothers") have an idea of what can happen, while the majority are still rubbing their eyes. Whether gold launches this time or soon to come, to have a bunch of "average citizens" so keyed in to a complex and hidden story is an historic phenom in itself!

Most people are used to markets meeting resistance from reduced demand as prices go higher, the natural self-limiting against asymptotic curves going upward into the heavens. At first glance, they must assume that this market will also operate that way.

Only the few (hundred? thousand? ten thousand?) who study here and at neighboring keeps have a glimmer of the possible "failure of paper markets" that can be the first or second stage of the POG-rocket. (Many traders know about short squeezes, but the trading community also "knows" that .gov is out to squash POG for as long as it can.)

It is amazing how positive some of the press has turned so suddenly; are they now so objective, with a sudden case of humility over their years of abuse? Or is someone greasing the skids for a positive POG story? Who cares; enjoy the ride!
Horatio
Barrick and Von Fink
Did you ever wonder what was said to Baron Von Fink Homestakes largest shareholder located in Germany.?
What was it that convinced him to vote in favor of Barricks merger with Homestake? It would be one of the most enlightening comments in gold history.Does anyone know?
Usul
"strange accounting practices"
http://biz.yahoo.com/ts/020206/valley_020106.htmlIt used to be that the accounting prestidigitators, if generally accepted accounting principle numbers weren't good enough, could use "pro-forma" numbers.

Now that "pro-forma" numbers are running out of steam, the accounting prestidigitators must turn to "pro forma pro rata" numbers, which are more aggressive than ordinary pro forma numbers...
Black Blade
Gold Chart
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.htmlThis Gold chart is quite nice. It demonstrates how Gold pushed against the $300.00/oz barrier only to be pushed back. Now it has broken through and sit solidly above the $300.00/oz. level. Now if it can remain above this level through the weekend, we could have a solid base to build off of. So far so good.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
Gold Higher Still!
http://www.kitco.com/market/Gold is moving a bit higher tonight after European markets opened. Currently Gold sits at $307.50. Nice!
Black Blade
European Markets Sink
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?ueuropean markets are currently all in the red. The fears of Enronitis still carries over after congessional testimony yesterday. Also, corporate earnings have been rather "grim". The Global Economy looks set to sink into a deepening Depression. There is little positive news anywhere. Still Japanese citizens and funds continue to purchase increasing quantities of Gold as insolvent Japanese Banks refuse to insure savings over $75,000 and as the Yen devalues faster than it can be printed.

- Black Blade
Old Yeller
Bank gets burned for $750 million in derivative losses
http://www.sunspot.net/news/nationworld/bal-te.bz.consumer07feb07.story?coll=bal%2Dnews%2Dnation
Dominos falling quicker now. Appears to be some nervousness in this article.

Pretty easy to vaporize $750 million,isn't it?
Black Blade
London gold opens above $300, Japanese keep buying
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020208/l08121737_1.html
Snippit:

LONDON, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Gold took a tight hold on its recent gains, opening above $300 an ounce in Europe on Friday for the first time in two years, and the metal was expected to continue upwards, traders said.

Spot gold posted its fifth consecutive opening high in London, starting at $305.50/307.00 a troy ounce at 0700 GMT, following a strong rally in Asia overnight.

Safe-haven buying from Japanese investors, coupled with a flight to gold by disappointed stock holders and reduced supply from producers have contributed to the rally that has raised the gold price by nearly 7.0 percent in a week. One European trader said: ``We've seen the Japanese continuing to buy a bit every day and the market is just very sensitive to the upside at the moment.''

The Tokyo Commodities Exchange (TOCOM) has recorded record high trading volumes in gold this week, while the yen-based gold price has leapt to three-year highs. The weakness in the Japanese yen against the dollar, and concern about the safety of the country's banks have triggered a gold rush in Japan from investors seeking a safe asset in which to place their money.

The recent move to two-year highs above $300 an ounce has kept trade extremely volatile, as any dips have been rapidly bought up by market players keen to cover their short positions, which has then been offset by producer selling. Gold managed to sustain the move above $300 overnight and although Fridays often bring end-of-week profit-taking, traders said sentiment had improved and a sell-off was unlikely.

"The market is bullish and is expecting further gains in the coming days,'' one said. ``Gold can easily move $10 in a day right now, so it could trade back to $295 or go up to $315, it's very hard to call,'' he added.


Black Blade: So far so good. Gold sits at $307.50 and has bounced around $309.00.
Black Blade
Japanese drive gold higher
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/dynamic/news/top_story.html?in_review_id=497439∈_review_text_id=458511
Snippit:

THE GOLD price surged to fresh two-year highs in Asian markets today as nervous investors continued to dump risky stocks in favour of the safe-haven yellow metal. Spot gold shot to $306, up more than $6 from New York's closing price. It has risen steadily since 11 September and gained more than 10% in the past week.

A combination of asset reallocation, the 'Enron factor', safe-haven buying and supply restraint by producers has boosted the metal. Japanese savers are snapping up gold ahead of rule changes on 1 April, when the government will no longer guarantee larger deposits in the event of a bank collapse.

Black Blade: Japanese banks are effectively insolvent. It is no wonder that Japanese are snapping up Gold.
Siochain
And the Beat goes on -Goldman expensive ill advice
http://www.businessreport.co.za/html/busrep/br_frame_decider.php?click_id=335&art_id=ct20020207182521700I53243682&set_id=60Wonder how many lawsuits this may generate..//quite a story!!!! PM holdings looking safer and better every day!!!!

Cost of Goldman's misjudgment
From Bloomberg
February 08 2002 at 10:01AM
New York - Goldman Sachs Group's multimillion-dollar advice to Tyco International and Hewlett-Packard has left shareholders of both companies poorer.

Tyco's stock has fallen by 44 percent, wiping out $41 billion in shareholder value, since the company said last month that it would break itself into four publicly traded businesses.

Goldman was Tyco's sole adviser on the plan, which Tyco chief executive Dennis Kozlowski wanted in part to halt a 22 percent slide in the share price.

Hewlett-Packard chief executive Carly Fiorina consulted Henry Paulson, the chief executive of Goldman, and banker Eugene Sykes before agreeing last September to buy Compaq Computer for $23.8 billion.

Hewlett-Packard has shed 10 percent since the announcement, cutting the company's market value by $4.6 billion.

Goldman, the leading adviser on mergers and the top arranger of stock sales last year, may share $500 million with other Wall Street firms helping Tyco break itself apart.

Goldman would also earn more than $30 million advising Hewlett-Packard, analysts said.

"I really doubt that Goldman raised many red flags that would get in the way of all those fees," said Michael Nemeroff, the head of finance and transactions at Chicago-based law firm Vedder Price Kaufman & Kammholz.

Jack Levy, the chairman of mergers and acquisitions at Goldman, declined to comment.

The fees would help Goldman offset a 45 percent slump in US mergers last year, which contributed to a 17 percent drop in fourth-quarter profit.

Goldman worked on $569 billion of announced mergers and acquisitions last year, $133 billion more than its closest competitor Merrill Lynch, according to Bloomberg data.

Hewlett-Packard's agreement to buy Compaq was the fourth- largest acquisition announced last year.

Goldman was only hired in July, more than a year after Fiorina and her Compaq counterpart Michael Capellas started talking, and one month after details of the merger began to be worked out.

One of the main jobs for investment bankers in an acquisition was to judge the likely reaction of investors, said Nemeroff.

Hewlett-Packard shed 38 percent after the announcement as investors expressed scepticism that the company could sell more services to make up for falling sales of personal computers.

"There were a lot of surprises that nobody expected in the initial reaction," Compaq's Capellas said last week. Compaq hired Salomon Smith Barney as its adviser.

Hewlett-Packard declined to comment on Goldman.

Hewlett-Packard has rebounded by 44 percent since its September low. On November 6, the Hewlett family and a related foundation, owners of about 5 percent of Hewlett's shares, said they planned to vote against the merger. The stock soared 17 percent.

Fiorina is embroiled in a proxy fight against Hewlett-Packard director Walter Hewlett, the son of co-founder William Hewlett. Both founding families are against the transaction.

Fiorina needs to persuade more than two-thirds of institutional investors to side with her when shareholders vote on the transaction next month.

Compaq shares are trading at 9.5 percent below the value of Hewlett-Packard's stock offer, about half of what the difference was a month ago. That signals that more investors expect the purchase to be approved.

As with Hewlett-Packard, investors in Tyco immediately showed disapproval of the firm's break-up, cutting its market value by 50 percent.

Tyco shares rose 12 percent yesterday to $25.92 after the company cancelled its plan to sell shares in its finance unit. Tyco also ended its agreement to buy CR Bard for $3.2 billion. Goldman and Merrill Lynch advised Tyco on the Bard purchase.

Goldman bankers Levy, Jeffrey Moslow and James Katzman helped craft the plan that would break Tyco into four companies. When the plan encountered resistance from some shareholders, Tyco hired JP Morgan Chase, Credit Suisse First Boston and Citigroup to help it sell businesses and provide financing, according to bankers familiar with the matter.

Brad McGee, Tyco's chief strategy officer, declined to comment on Goldman. "We've had terrific support from our banks," he said. "That's the bottom line."

Goldman was likely to win most of the business arranging the initial offerings of Tyco's units, analysts said.

Kozlowski advocated the break-up of Tyco to refute speculation that the company used $64 billion of acquisitions in the past eight years to mask slowing sales growth. But some investors who met Kozlowski after the plan was announced said they felt blindsided.

"I have never left a business meeting as angry as I left that one," said Robert Streed, a fund manager at Northern Trust in Chicago.

"They changed their story. They were valued as taking acquisitions, infusing corporate culture into acquired companies, and now they come in and break the corporate culture, exactly where I thought the culture resided," Streed said.

Goldman is not the only firm to misjudge investor reaction recently. JP Morgan and Citigroup were unable to halt a collapse in Enron's shares that scuttled their plan to sell the energy trader to Dynegy. - Bloomberg




Chris Powell
What happens if spot gold reaches $320?
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/997Here's a speculation.


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Henri
Pizz #69583 Jr stocks
Last summer I visited a gold mining district in Australia I believe it was Ballerat. Here they had an old steam railway and had set up demos of old mines, mining techniques and erected some of the old crushing mill equipment. Most impressive was an actual pour of a 100 oz bar. Liquid gold is unbelievably beautiful! But I digress.

My point is that the most impressive thing was a roster of the dividends paid out to shareholders. 10's of thousands of Aussie $? per SHARE in the peak production years (1860's). Wish I had the details ...that was alotta cash in those days
Siochain
(No Subject)
Well London certainly did its' job today on POG....hmmmn...SM futures green....wonder what's up in NY for gold - will they or won't they? ....definitely "interesting times"
Spartacus
Citigroup&Enron
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/02/08/business/08NOTE.html?ex=1013835600&en=343783226d016f3a&ei=5006∂ner=ALTAVISTA1
How Citigroup Hedged Bets Against Enron By DANIEL ALTMAN

"To protect itself, Citigroup created securities that functioned like an insurance policy. If Enron stayed healthy, buyers of the securities would receive a steady return. But if Enron ran into trouble, Citigroup would stop paying the return, keep the investors' principal and instead give them Enron debt. Now those investors are left to fight for repayment in bankruptcy proceedings."

Belgian
Watch out !
Hong Kong markets closed from monday to thursday (Chineze Newyear) ! Was the 307$ an anticipation on this holiday trading-halt ? Can POG be re-managed to the 290$-zone, more easely without the far east buying ?
Belgian
DROOY
DRD Directors have been selling DROOY shares !? (Miningweb)
And have they been buying PHYSICAL ? No ! They prefer holding that great rand-currency.
RobotGuy
Time?
K, this is probably just a coincidence, but most of my real time charts for POG stopped functioning today at 9:11 eastern time. How bizarre.
sector
Forbes.com on Gold
Business - Forbes.com

Gold Rush
Fri Feb 8, 8:08 AM ET


Gold's convulsive action this week, spiking above $307, has excited attention because of concurrent concerns about the financial system, exchange rates, accounting standards, etc.

Chris Temple of National Investor has a more technical theory. He writes:

"As I've discussed in recent weeks, Newmont's successful acquisition of Normandy Mining and Franco-Nevada helped stoke some of this bullishness earlier, as the market cheered the non-hedging policy of Newmont as opposed to South Africa's Anglo Gold, its competing bidder. Newmont has already promised to begin unwinding Normandy's hedge book in an orderly fashion.

"For those still a bit confused by this, Anglo, Normandy and Barrick Gold have been among the biggest gold hedgers in the industry in recent years. Their practices, boiled down, have been to sell future gold production at current prices. While this served to 'lock in' a decent price in a declining market for gold in the late 1990s, gold bugs have hated the practice, as it served to do little more than strengthen the bearish grip on gold...Anglo has now said that it, too, will begin unwinding its hedge positions. This bet on a rising gold price by the big South African miner is a key reason why even more bullishness has crept into the gold arena."

The Hulbert Financial Digest has only one year's worth of data for National Investor. But in 2001 it did well, gaining 18.4% vs. -11.0% for the Wilshire.

Bullish sentiment is strikingly high among gold timers--89.6% exposure vs. 85.7% for the gold timers that have beaten the market since 1992 by HFD count. In other words, there's no Best vs. Rest divergence to turn to--and bullish excess like this invites contrarian skepticis, as it did (justifiably) when gold spiked up to $325.50 in October 1999.

But almost all the gold timers are trend followers. By definition, they will be on board any rally.
++++++++++++++++++++++
The Japanese are powering this move and will act independently without regard to other influences.
RobotGuy
Markets VS. Gold
North American markets started off well this morning despite the constant rising POG. Little activity in some Junior mining companies suggest investors still believe we are on a road to recovery. If we have another milking phase today, I expect we'll see a lot of last minute gold mining stock buying. I know a number of you are against investing in gold mining stocks, but as others have expressed, quick gains in stocks will allow me to purchase more physical than I could have with my previous portfolio. Buy physical I will, but for the time being, my stocks will probably increase in value faster than the actual POG. I'm not afraid of trying to get my money out of these characters, as my investments are rather insignificant with respect to others.
sourdough
"THE GOLD TOOL"
It appears the "push" by the Japanese government is working.
"Public continues to buy gold".
The rest of the world continues to provide the gold for them to purchase at very reasonable prices.
When(how much gold)will they have to purchase before the point is reached where Gold cannot be allowed to fall?
If the Japanese put enough of their savings into gold, the government/s must realize that they could not take a wipe out on gold falling. Get enough gold in their hands ,then support the price upwards. The economic recovery tool!
Finally they found a mechanic to fix that engine.
America must hold off until the Japanese pockets are full.
I ask again, if the Japanese economy begins to recover through domestic led demand. What would be the best jAPANESE RELATED investment? What is the potential return on that investment %?
Rockgrabber
COMEX Futures: we have to beat them at their game somehow
I am sure many of you have taken a ride in the gold markets. Only to get no profit, and lose your money on these price spikes. I dont see how this is going to be different. I mean 9-11 could not even really do anything for gold.
Here is my strategy, help me if you could with any ideas. When the price hit 300 I bought April 290 puts and 295 puts. I then went long futures at 301 with a stop at 298. I have an order to sell at 310. If it gets there I will convert all profit into puts again, the April 305 puts. Then go long at 311.5. All the time not minding if it goes higher (Good amount of real gold, and unhedged gold companies). What I am really looking for is this market to fall back and cash in the puts, and buy real gold, with any profit. The name off my plan is to get more real gold. Of another note.
Who else out there is positioning themselfes for this market to fall, and how are you going about it? I might be better off just buying puts and calls then cashing out the calls if the market goes up, and then buying puts with that profit. Anyhow I sure do not trust this paper market. Good luck out there good freinds.
Carl H
Japanese Housewives
Does anyone else find it ironic that the Japanese Housewives may well be the ones to topple the cabal?
Gandalf the White
OK Goldfly, time to let SPIKE loose !!
Jump SPOT !! -- JUMP
<;-)
Brett Woods
Perhaps, putt thos "strategies" aside for now.
Nothing so far since November 2000 has indicated that this isn't the beginning of a real bull market. This isn't a matter of a short lived hysteria driven spike like y2k. There are genuine and broad based currency issues, exposing the fixed value of gold as their values move down to meet the level of productivity on which they're based. Further, there have been several articles exposing the increase of money supply, a much greater increase of "liquidity" than that injected to ameliorate the anticipated y2k cash machine runs; much more of a year over year increase than President Nixon introduced at the beginning of our great inflationary period, and the reasoning given is that our current stock holdings have no value and what is implied, is that they have no basis for re-generating their value. "Intangible Assets?" Good lord, can't you see that the Emperor has no clothes?

I refuse to pay $25. per share for a company that earns $0.20 a share on that investment. The return is virtualy nothing and their is risk. I'd rather pay $4. per share for that return and I would rather invest in something I understand. I think that I am not alone with this feeling and hence a renewed and genuine bullish interest in simple work and the salts of the Earth.
jinx44
Bill Bonner at the Motley Fool---excerpt
Twenty-four months ago, people thought something big was happening. And something big was...but not at all what they expected.

"It was, in short, the infinite promise of America's
digital future," writes Christopher Byron, "conjured by
seers like George Gilder and Nicholas Necroponte, that
drove capital spending in the 1990s, reshaping the U.S.
economy from a world of tangible value into one of
virtual opportunity. We wound up building the greatest
field of dreams in the history of world capitalism, and
alas, no one showed up to play."

It must be comic to the gods. To watch us, I mean.

It is not hunger that gets a modern man up in the
morning, dear reader. Nor is it the need to put a roof
over his head that keeps him up late at night. Instead,
most of human striving and pining has no more purpose
than to help him feel superior to other men - to look
better, to play better, to have more money or a better
life. Nothing is so trivial or preposterous that it
cannot give a man an edge. One is proud of his new
automobile, another of his roses...one believes his
steadfast labor raises him above other men of his
rank...another thinks his stock market returns give him
a mark of distinction. Thus, in pursuit of such an
advantage, a man puts calluses on his hands with hard
labor or dulls his dendrites with P/E ratios and World
Economic Forum meetings.

Straining, sweating, climbing...whether he is working on
his golf swing or his stockholdings...modern man
struggles to the top of the hill. There, surveying the
world at his feet, he puffs out his chest, puts his
hands on his hips...and discovers that he has forgotten
to put on his pants.
TownCrier
More change... gold is special
Around the world, changes continue to be put into place, setting gold up in a unique position for special treatment. They WANT you to use it for savings, a complementary role (i.e., savings) to the monetary system that national currencies are unable to adequately deliver (even with interest included). The purpose is to level the international economic playing field, eliminating the U.S's "exorbitant privilege" attained through the dollar's BrettonWoods-legacy reserve status -- both officially and individually.

The latest stirrings:
Following the European/Russian/Indian/Chinese trend, Korea "is awaiting the response from Congress on the proposal to abolish the 10% VAT currently levied on gold imports. An answer is expected by 22 nd of this month." (Quoted material is from WGC's Rhona O'Connell.)

R.
Cavan Man
Pizz
RE:EnronThanks for your reply. My concern is not regarding the incarceration of the wise guys. Last eve I was speaking about the magnitude of losses and default.
Mr Gresham
Trail Guide
This has been your week, or maybe the first of many.

We have kept on hiking, and our stamina is looking pretty good lately.

If we are about to come out upon a ridgetop clearing, with a spectacular view, wouldn't it be great to find you waiting there to point out some of the landmarks in that vista?
Black Blade
Another Accounting Scandal?
There is a fresh rumor that another accounting scandal is about to break. This time the apparent culprit is Qualcom. There will be a press conference in about an hour or so. I suspect after the markets close and a lot of insider dumping. This week so far we have seen the effects of Enronitis, Global Crossing investigations and the Daschle Dip. And now perhaps Qualcom. I now wonder what surprises next week will bring. It is no wonder that there is now a growing shift towards Gold.

- Black Blade
Pizz
Cavan Man
Sorry for the misinterpretation.

Re: Magnitude of losses and default? I think it will be a cascade effect. A great many who did business with Enron were hedging their own (over exposed??) positions, whatever they may be. Now they are "naked".

With the accountants/SEC zeroing in, a major hedge position that previously was offset with a book "gain" from Enron, now will have to be accounted for as a loss. I personally don't think too many of these companies have either the capital or the liquidity. If a couple more major bk's hit, this is going to get real ugly.

The telecom sector appears to be imploding. (See BB post)

Right now I'm getting a real bad feeling something major is about to break.




Black Blade
Fabled 1933 gold coin, never in circulation, expected to sell for millions
http://www.startribune.com/stories/535/1609091.html

Snippit:

NEW YORK -- A 1933 Double Eagle gold coin that never went into circulation is being sold by the federal government at auction this summer, with experts predicting it could fetch millions.

``We expect that this coin may become the most valuable coin in the world,'' said David Pickens, associate director of the U.S. Mint.

Sotheby's auction house and Stack's, a numismatic firm, are planning a July 30 auction of the coin, believed to be one of only a handful of 1933 Double Eagles to have survived when all 445,000 struck that year were ordered melted down.

Double Eagles were first minted in 1850 with a face value of $20. The ones that were minted in 1933 were never put into circulation because President Franklin Roosevelt decided to take the nation off the gold standard.

Before the coins were melted down, two were handed over to the Smithsonian Institution for historic safekeeping.

But one other somehow survived. It suddenly surfaced in public in 1996.

Henrietta Holsman Fore, director of the U.S. Mint, said the coin ``has been at the center of international numismatic intrigue for more than 70 years.''

The Double Eagle, its whereabouts unknown for decades, surfaced when British coin dealer Stephen Fenton tried selling it to undercover Secret Service agents at the Waldorf Astoria in New York. Fenton was charged with possession of stolen property because of the coin's status as uncirculated, but the charges were later dismissed.

Barry Berke, who represented Fenton during forfeiture proceedings, said he negotiated a settlement after presenting evidence that Fenton purchased the coin in 1995 from an Egyptian jeweler with ties to an Egyptian military official.

That strengthened the possibility the coin once belonged to Egypt's King Farouk, one of the world's great coin collectors. A 1933 Double Eagle from the collection of the king was offered for sale at a 1954 Cairo auction, but withdrawn at the behest of the U.S. Treasury, according to Sotheby's and the U.S. Mint.

Black Blade: Ah come on! After all it's just a barbarous relic. ;-)
Black Blade
Enron Scandal Grows
It now has come to light that Enron has paid over $700 milion to "off the books" partners JEDI since filing for bankruptcy (Tea Pot Dome Scandal II?). The creditors are bit ticked off and have gone to court. Enron employees are continuing to loot the company with extravagant purchases and entertainment such as season tickets at Enron Field for luxury boxes, bonuses, and exotic travel. The corruption looks to be pervasive. Meanwhile apparently former CEO Ken Lay will appear before Congress to testify on Tuesday. Strangely many other corporations are under investigation for similar practices. "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade
Pizz
(No Subject)
Dollar sitting at support @119 in uptrend.

Bonds strengthening.

CRB gapped up.

Oil going up.

PM's going up.



Feels like some really big money is getting set up for a major flight to quality and hard assets. Feels like a major war is about to break.

Just a gut feel, but it's real strong.

Pizz
Black Blade
Market Home Stretch
We are now in the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Of course we can expect a concerted push to make the markets close higher. The markets trade on very light volumne and so it is easy to push the indices higher. Perhaps the President's Working Group on Financial Markets (aka PPT) has come back into play, considering that there is absolutely no positive news to trade on.

- Black Blade
Solomon Weaver
(No Subject)
Carl H (02/08/02; 10:21:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 69618)
Japanese Housewives
Does anyone else find it ironic that the Japanese Housewives may well be the ones to topple the cabal?

. . . . . . .

One of the interesting things about Japan is that when a fad sets in, it can quickly move to mainstream......wives are definately the keepers of household finance and savings...and they will quickly spread the word about the value of keeping a little gold hidden under the tokonoma.
CoBra(too)
As a Matter of Fact!
... What an idiotic remark to make. though, as a matter of fact I'm swamped by Wall Street friends wanting to know what's going on... in gold - is it for real?

Another, totally idiotic question - since we bugs know what's for real - gold only.

As another matter of fact - Mr. Wall Street asked last week what to buy in terms of mining co's - my answer was DROOY and X-Cal and both made 100% in that 'idiotic' short time frame. Did he buy gold, or miners - NO! Not yet, though he will after the next big appreciation ...


Go, though go gold to keep your values attached to moral reality - not in vanity to fiat surreality - cb2
Pizz
Black Blade
A little help if you have the time.

How would you set up a 90 day store of food for a major earthquake zone, i.e. no electricity, no natural gas, etc.

Your input would be appreciated

Thx

Pizz
Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD
Hard assets... Easy access! Don't be fooled by inflatable paper substitutes!
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

sovereigns
Why should YOU buy gold from Centennial?

Because no one else will do it for you.

Centennial is here to help.
1-800-869-5115

sourdough
Question
Opinion please.
What is the best play in Japan at present, in the event of a Japanese economic recovery?
I would like to do some research to see what cartel banks are doing in Japan. I know of some talk of purchasing "bad loans".
It should be good for Canadian economy, it should be good for American economic outlook, it should be good for world economic outlook. If it appears the Japanese can again begin to start "pulling their weight" it should be good for everybody.
If I am a cartel bank, and I am going to lose 300 an ounce on my gold positions. What kind of deal could I make with Japan,what future consideration, what investment could I make to balance my losses?
Regardless of what anyone may think of my conspiracy theories, the question still is valid. What would be the most profitable place to put my money in relation to a domestic led economic recovery in Japan? If I was a GS, or a JPM?
RobotGuy
Pizz, if you don't mind, I have a few ideas.
I spend a lot of time in the great outdoors hiking etc. I can tell you what I carry on my back to survive 'out there'.

Firstly and most importantly is clean drinking water. Often in natural disasters the water supply either gets tainted, or all together fails to function. I have a marvelous device that I can place in beaver dung tainted lakes and I won't even get the slightest sniffle. It's a ceramic filter water pump that has an iodine resin in the filter. They have come down quite a bit in price since their introduction to the outdoors enthusiast and let me tell you, it's the most important thing you could own in any survival situation.

Non perishable foods including but not limited to dried soups and grains, oats, rice, fruits etc. Salt and sugar are also very important. Keep a lot of carbohydrates like rice, they will give you daily functioning energy. You might get tired of eating rice every day, but it will kep you alive.

I carry a sleeping bag good enough for the lowest temperatures encountered ever in whatever region I'm going to be in, especially mountainous regions.

Knives, string, and a good first aid kit are all very important for survival, a good honing stone is also very handy, but all of these things are for outback type survival except the first aid kit.

Portable stoves are very convenient for cooking, you could easily feed a family of four on a small portable camping type stove. Get two or three one gallon cans at least.

Those are the basics, but they'll let you see tomorrow.

:)

Jon
CoBra[too] Incredible foresight!!
Re; your msg # 69632: May we have your picks for next week now - instead of end of next week? Thanks.
Black Blade
Pizz - Food Storage

I have never been one to buy the expensive freeze-dried foods, though there are those who would go that route. I purchase food that I would eat regardless and I rotate the supply as I consume it and restock. I also have a wood-burning stove and an outdoor grill so electricity and natural gas supply is not a problem. I know that a lot of people had purchased generators in preparation for Y2K. I have a Honda generator that will work for the freezers if there is a power outage. If it were necessary I could season the meat and dry it to make jerky.

I have about 250 to 300 lbs of wild game (elk, venison, buffalo, duck, prairie chicken, Hungarian partridge, and trout) in the freezers. I also keep about 50 to 100 lbs of red beans, white beans, and rice. I have a couple boxes of saltines, about 20 pkg of spaghetti, a couple of cases of spaghetti sauce, and a case of pork-flavored ramen noodles. I also have a few cases of various canned goods such as beef stew, beef chunks, sweet corn, corned beef hash, salmon, chili con carne, peaches, and black berries. I also have a case of TP (I did say I have beans and chili?). I also keep some spices on hand such as salt, pepper, crushed peppers, cayenne, A-1 steak sauce, and haba--ero Tabasco sauce. I also keep a couple of cans of olive oil (keep refrigerated after opening as it can go rancid if you don't use it much) and a case of cooking oil on hand as well. If you have a sweet tooth, then a couple of bottles of honey or some sugar is good for storage. I keep 25 gallon jugs (used and cleaned milk jugs) with water that I occasionally refill - be sure to add a couple of drops of chlorine bleach for preservation and to prevent mold/algae buildup. On occasion I also home brew some adult beverages.

I also have several types of firearms suitable for hunting and plenty of ammunition, not to mention fishing gear. There is a lot of game nearby (sometimes right out the front door).

However, since you ask for something in case of no power or NG, you have to select those items that do not need cooking or that you can cook on an outdoor grill. You should consider food that you would consume anyway as you would want to rotate your supplies. It makes no sense to store something that you would not eat as food does tend to go bad over time (even canned goods or freeze-dried). You might want to go through your cupboards and take an inventory of what goods you regularly use and determine what can be stored and what items would be a good replacement for perishable goods. I have friends who regularly go to Costco or some food warehouse type vendor and purchase case lots of canned goods such as those I have described above. If you buy in case lots it is also much cheaper. A couple of my friends dry their own meats (jerky) and various fruits in a home built food dryer. They even make some very tasty fruit rolls. I even barter some game or home brew for fruit rolls and their dried apricots. These items can be stored for several months.

I would suggest that after you take inventory of what you have that you build up a food storage with a few additional cases of a particular canned or dried food item every time you go shopping. Maybe a couple of cases of sweet corn here and a case of canned meat there, etc. to start with. This is easier than trying to do it all at once and then you can ease into it a bit easier. I mostly think of this as another form of insurance and it comes in handy as I now sit atop the "Bone Pile" I am living off my stores and enjoying the time off with an occasional jaunt on snow shoes or cross-country skis. If it were cold enough I could be ice fishing. It looks like spring for some nice fly-fishing on some of the local streams and rivers.

A food storage program with a stockpile of a few months worth of food could come in handy during periods of unemployment, where the wage earner is temporarily disabled, or if there is a natural disaster. I hope that this helps but everyone has different tastes so what works for me may not necessarily work for someone else. Just as Gold and Silver is portfolio insurance, a good food storage program is good survival insurance. earth quake zone? I know what you mean - I lived in the SF Bay area a few years ago. Cheers!

- Black Blade
kludge
Pizz - If I might make a suggestion also...
...read "Making the Best of Basics" by James Talmage Stevens, it describes what to store, how to store it, and how to cook it (which could be important if you're thinking of storing raw foods like wheat, rice, and beans - as opposed to Rice-a-Roni, or Macaroni and Cheese :)

Personally, I use two methods of food storage - at home I just bought extra of the things we normally eat over time, and now just replenish and rotate stock as necessary. At my cottage, I buy true pre-packaged "survival type" food, in 5 gallon buckets and #10 cans mostly, and just replace it every couple years. The first way is cheaper and less wasteful, but the second is much easier.

Ditto what RobotGuy said about clean water. A .5 micron filter and 4 drops of Chlorox per gallon of water, and you can safely drink from just about any water source.

Good Luck
Pizz
RobotGuy
Thanks. (I'm a bit embarrassed, having a country boy backround, of some of the things you mentioned that I completely forgot, i.e., clean water. I can walk to a river, but would it be clean???)

I've always been somewhat prepared, but its time for a bit more due dilligence on the basics. In the Pacific NW we now have a possible financial upheaval (along with everybody else) and earthquake potential.

Black-Blade: A sincere thank-you for your continuing posts reminding all of basic necessities. Odds still are IMO we won't have to use them, but the odds appear to be shortening every day.

Pizz

Pizz
USAGOLD
Pizz, Black Blade. . .Stored Food
There's great satisfaction and comfort in a food storage of the type you describe. I buy bulk beef, turkey, chicken, etc instead of the game approach. I also go for the canned foods, etc. over dry food for the same reasons you do. I rotate like you do, so I buy what we are going to eat anyway. Gold and cash also enhance peace of mind. Not everyone has to adhere to the same approach to be successful, but, Pizz, you are headed in the right direction when you say you are going to sit down and think about it. Needs to work for you and your family. Don't forget us if you're thinking about hard gold, of course.

I think it makes alot of sense to be prepared. Look at Argentina. Those who think it can't happen here have no understanding of history and the fragilities in civilization it exposes.

One of the bigger weeks in a long time is drawing to a conclusion here at USAGOLD / CPM. Thanks to all for your on-going support of this gold firm and the time spent helping bring the public to a better understanding of gold and the economy here at this Forum. The USAGOLD website is special and means at great deal to a large number of people. We get congratulated at least once a day about the site -- and on most days -- many times. Those congratulations extend to all our posters. Thanks.

And of course everyone wants to know. . . . . . . .

Where's FOA?
Waverider
Pizz
A couple more ideas...I keep my scuba light that I use for night diving by my bedside (exceptionally bright/wide beam) in case of an emergency in the middle of the night. I also keep a flashlight, spare batteries and candles. You may want to think abut a spare radio that runs on batteries. Also, I do a lot of home-canning - fruits, pickles, jams, meats etc. You can rotate on a yearly basis and hey, beats store bought! Cheers,
Waverider
sourdough
Pizz (02/08/02; 13:38:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 69633)
Hi, I spent 10 years in the Yukon,mostly in the bush.
Start with a heat source,water, flour, baking powder'sugar, cooking oil and a frypan. (bannock boys, bannock).
the rest is luxuries. beans for protein.
What you want to put on it runs from jam, molasses, peanut butter, margarine,cheez whiz, etc.etc.etc.
Boxman
Pizz, food storage
Pizz, should you decide to store water long term, make sure that you do not use the scented bleaches. 3 to 4 drops per gallon will keep it safe for months. Also, do not use the plastic one gallon milk containers, as they are biodegradable, and you will have a mess on your hands in short order. The 2 liter soft drink containers are the best, unless you buy the 55 gallon water storage tanks, or even something bigger. Walmart sells 5 gallon containers for this purpose also, even have heavy duty handles.

A comprehensive food storage program, along with physical gold and silver and cash on hand and you will sleep like a baby.

I have enough food on hand, both freeze dried, and bulk food to feed 30 people for a year, and the fuel to cook it with. Talk about work, it was incredible.

The quickest way to be up and ready is the freeze dried type of foods, but they are rough on the digestive tract.
I have items stored that will enable me to cook the freeze dried foods, and not have to use much fuel.

Buying food that you eat every day is the best way to go, IMHO, but it does take a little time to put it together.

There are some canned foods that have a very long shelf life, such as tuna fish, and Dinty Moore Beef Stew (I am not particularly fond of this though). They can also be eaten right out of the can, if need be.

The best item to have is a source of water, and a way to purify it. There are some truly wonderful purifying systems. Research them all, as prices can vary considerably.

My guess is that there are many on this forum that have extensive knowledge concerning preps, as it seems that gold bugs like to be ready for any eventuality. Part of our nature I suppose.

Best of luck.
Boxman
Jim Puplavas' latest weekly update.
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/update.htmI haven't had time to read it yet, but I am sure that it is a gem, or should I say that it is "golden".
Leigh
Where's FOA?
I wonder if a poetry contest devoted to FOA would bring him back? It wouldn't have to be a USAGOLD-sponsored one - we could do it ourselves! We could have winners for best poem, worst poem, most Johnny Cohranish poem ("My gold ain't for sale, cause I'm walkin' the Trail"), and so on. Is anyone up for this? It would be a great way to while away the hours till Sunday night.

I'm fixing dinner now, but I'll write up a little something later.
HOOSIER GOLDBUG
MY POEM!
Consistency and Perserverance! How much we need
To walk a measured GOLD TRAIL pace,
To live the life of real money of which we speak,
Until we see FOA's and ANOTHER's face.
slingshot
Water storage
CautionSome plastic containers may absorb milk. The problem is when the water temperature gets high enough the milk leeches into the water and contaminates it. Does not matter how many times you wash it.

Do not store any plastic near petroleum products for they can absorb vapors.

Those who can not store things up I suggest a three day Bug out bag. Just in case you have to get out fast.

Don't forget the Gold.

Y2K Jitters all over again.
Slingshot
Siochain
Preparation
I guess I'm also in the category of wanting to be prepared "just in case"...having on hand what I would need to get thru any initial emergency and then possible longer term for my family so I am enjoying the posts on the subject.

http://members.aol.com/vlabella/72hour_listb.htm The Frugal Shopper Disaster Shopper...lists what you should have on hand especially first 72 hours...a good review list

There are lots of others on the internet. What I have found useful is a solar powered radio that can work on batteries...adapter...solar panel...or even hand crank ... solar light and solar battery recharges etc.

Also hand warmers/feet warmer packs are small and handy to have.

Back-up power is something I'm looking for ...preferably some type with option of solar in case of long time outage....anyone having good info please let me know

I did see some great small portable solar/auto/battery power generators. in case you need to move fast or just additional for home
TownCrier
More highgrading from the mind of ANOTHER...
http://www.usagold.com/GoldTrail/archives/ANOTHER1.htmlAs you look at MK's handsome price chart on the Daily Market Report page, you might be inclined to think with a technical analyst's mind that, given a week or two, the current price spike will fade, giving you a more attractive buying price as gold continues its evident upward march. If only the world would behave so orderly, we'd all be millionaires from this SINGLE self-evident trading opportunity! The truth of the matter is, while gold is headed for a significant revaluation in the minds of Economic Man, you cannot know the path it will take in getting there. In this matter you must understand the future for what it is, then position yourself for the DESTINATION, while as a matter of course, remaining mindful of the contingencies for the journey. That said, I offer you the following from ANOTHER on the merits of TA through such a time as we have ahead.

Enjoy.
R.
-------

ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) Sat Oct 25 1997 10:24:
Why do the Swiss want to sell gold over many years when they could sell the entire lot in a week? Yes, the worldwide trading volume in gold could take the whole load and not drop the price below Fridays close! The reason for the "many long term selling announcements" is to keep the price down over time. The CBs would have you think that their selling would "crush the price"! The real effect would be exactly the opposite. The major world buyers would line up at the door to buy "the last sale of the century! Have you heard any CBs putting out "Proposals to Sell" for their entire stock of gold? Of course not, the response to buy would give off the absolute wrong signal and cause a revaluation of gold.

It is a far better use of a public asset when they use a small anount of it over time to ensure a reasonable price for OIL! If all gold was sold quickly, there would be no trading medium for deals! How far do you think an IOU would go if it didn't have gold in the background worth perhaps a 1,000 times it's current commodity price?

So what good is this information to the small investor? Not much if you run out and buy gold options, gold stocks, gold futures, etc.! Did you think the following quotes were good for those assets:

"That is why some "Big Traders" are holding ONLY gold as events unfold."

" One last note: No form of paper wealth will survive the financial crush once the CBs stop selling! NOTHING! "

"The market is changing now,,, it will go up but you will not be happy with the outcome."

"What is happening now is far, far larger than the interest of a few traders or mining companies. They will be stepped on!"

Gold bullion is being accumulated and cornered on a worldwide scale not seen before! UNDERSTAND THIS: The people who are buying do not expect the price to rise until the CBs slow their selling. They do expect the value of gold to increase in the future even as the banks sell into a rising market. This will happen as the sheer volume of trading completely overwhelms the entire worldwide market! The big buyers fully well expect gold to stop all trading as the governments enact DRACONIAN MEASURES to deal with a worldwide currency problem. The public in general will ask for these measures and to that effect, all paper connected to bullion will become "fair game"!

My projections and -----:

The gold market is not the same as it was in the past, so throw your charts and TA away! Nor will the gold market be the same in the future as it is today, so don't use paper substitutes! Today, gold is much more valuable than it has ever been! During your time a straight forward investment in "bullion only ' will far surpass any other asset you could hold!
---end---
Black Blade
Puplava Weekly Update
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/update.htm
Snippit:

History has a habit of repeating itself. The same mistakes made in the past can often be viewed in the present. The background and the players may be different, but the parallels are there for all to see. So it should come as no surprise that the burst of the 1990's stock market bubble would be compared to similar events in 1929 and the 30's. There are many commonalities that appear vividly familiar. The technology boom of the 20's runs strikingly parallel to the tech boom of the 1990's. The infatuation of the public with the stock market, and the degree with which stocks became vehicles for speculation, resemble the broader sentiments of today's stock market investor. The 1920's stock market investor knew little about investing or the stocks that were bought or sold. Investors moved in herds in and out of stocks based on news events, hot tips or the actions of the ticker tape. Today's momentum investor and day trader follow similar tracks. News is what moves markets as does the action of the tape. In many ways, nothing has changed since the 1920's.

Black Blade: I know that Boxman posted te link - but this weeks update is especially worth reading. Puplava gives a very good comparison between the Crash of 1929 and the Great Depression, and what is turning into the popping of the speculative manias of the 1990's and the deepening New Depression. And much more. Definitely worth reading. I'm sure that this one will likely end up on the Gilded Opinion soon.

Anyway, gotta go to a beer tasting (or is that guzzling?) with some friends. Later.
Leigh
Waiting for Springtime
'Tis eventide along the Trail
A chilly night descends
Our garden tilled, we search in vain
For our Trail Guide and our friend.

He's left us now; he's gone apace
He walks the Trail alone
We weary travellers must find
The strength to carry on.

Lo! News comes in from lands afar
They're buying gold en masse!
From our vantage on the mountaintop
We watch, and raise our glass!

Soon our good Trail Guide will appear
The spring will burst in bloom
The Golden Trail will sparkle by day
And glow by light of moon.

Dear goldbugs, though the wait is long
And hearts may break with pain
Ne'er fear, for gold's a precious thing
We suffer not in vain.
TownCrier
Free and ample publicity
As global investor sentiment grows along with the climbing price, we now enter a period where one thought -- one word -- will be on everyone's lips (their chapped lips). Investments aside, the influence will nevertheless be there in the undercurrents of thought. With the start of the Winter Olympics, the media, the commercials, and the news will be seasoned abundantly with favorable comments about...GOLD!

R.
Waverider
Pompous Market Prognosticators
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/prognost.htmlI posted this once in the past but it is a fun read (posted again in light of Puplava). Cheers,
Waverider
Waverider
Leigh
That is absolutely *beautiful*!
Waverider
R Powell
Hamilton's latest
http://www.zealllc.com/2002/gold300.htm "6000 words?!? Hey, it's not every week that gold breaks through $300 for the first time in years!"
*****
For those who read Adam Hamilton. I can not comment other than to say it prints out at 15 pages. I have no doubt that it's worth the printing, he's one of my favorite.
Edelson, Kaplan and Blanchard said it couldn't be done! Happy Weekend!
Rich
Leigh
Waverider
Thanks for the compliment! Actually, I had you in mind when I came up with the poetry idea. The one you wrote the other day was incredible. I'm so much in awe of your posts that I feel mine are very trite and insignificant.

Hoosier Goldbug, thanks for starting out the contest with your heartfelt poem! I wondered as I read it whether we actually have seen ANOTHER's or FOA's faces on TV or elsewhere and didn't know who they "really" were.
Trapper
PIZZ on food storage
Having stored food is an excellent idea, my philosophy is to be self reliant. I can all my wild meat and fish and will tell you nothing is better. Better for you and better taste also. The big plus is you know what went into the jars. I only see problems if you live in a big city and have to scoot. Then I suggest learning to live in the back country. I quit a $70.0000 a year job and moved back to the woods as I must pratice what I preach. If you are not opposed, learn to hunt fish and trap. If you don't like that a the least learn to farm. I feel this next depression will last a lot longer than most, and folks now days ain't as nice as they were in the last one. Live small.
RJ
Black Blade
A sleeping Giant has Awakened
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

Friday's Stock Market Round-Up

Gold Glittering Once Again A sleeping giant has awakened from its decades-long slumber. One of the more remarkable aspects of the financial markets this week was the break out in gold prices. The rise in precious metals shares, which led the stock markets last year, has been largely dismissed by the financial media. Precious metals may no longer be possible to ignore. Gold has tried to break out several times over the last year -- once in May of 2001 and again in September following the World Trade Center attack, and now, this week. For the first time since June 2000, the price of gold has remained above $300 an ounce. There have been several attempts this week, but on Thursday the price of gold stayed above $300. Today the price advanced by nearly another $4 to close out the week at $304.40.

Will It Stick?

Now the question is, Is this rally for real? There have been several attempts at a rally over the last few years, but none of them could stick. Gold bullion selling by central banks, or gold leasing by New York and European bullion banks, or producer hedging would always knock the price of gold down. Many of those incentives to sell have now been removed. The short-term interest rates, which have fallen below 2%, no longer make it profitable to borrow and sell gold. In addition to lower interest rates, the gold lease rate has been rising lately and is now over 1.5%. Ending of the gold carry trade has removed a potential supply source from the market. In addition to a restraint on supply, another factor that has reduced supply is the exploration business has gone into remission with lower prices for gold. The majors have found it more profitable to gobble up mid-tier companies or juniors rather than explore for gold.

On the demand-side, gold demand has been growing each year, especially in the world's emerging economies. The estimated gold deficit each year is between 1000-1500 tons. Without the steady dis-hoarding by central banks, gold prices would have risen long ago. Now there are other reasons gold is starting to shine. Fiscal distress is erupting all over the globe. You don't hear about it in the mainstream press, but it is there if you know where to look. In Japan, the government will begin to start phasing out bank deposit insurance starting this April. Japanese citizens are rushing into to gold to protect themselves. The loss of deposit protection, combined with a plunging Japanese yen, is driving gold sales through the roof. Over 21 metric tons of gold have been bought by Japanese investors during the fourth quarter alone. That's a 50% increase over the previous year.

In Argentina, the wealthy have already moved out of dollars and into gold while the not-so-fortunate see their life savings wiped out by currency devaluation. Around the globe and in the US there is a growing feeling that the world's financial system is breaking down. From hedge fund disasters to rogue traders at banks to major bankruptcies, all spell trouble ahead. In past crises, the safe haven has always been the dollar, but many of today's problems are occurring in the U.S. so the dollar is considered to be less than safe. There is also growing skepticism of the Federal Reserve's ability to manage the growing crises. Investors are doing what they have always done over the long years of history, which is to return to the currency of last resort: in this instance, gold and silver. That may explain why the Amex Gold Index is up over 35% this year and up over 87% over the last 52 weeks. The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index is up over 25% year-to-date and up over 47% over the last twelve months. Is anyone in the financial media paying attention?

Black Blade: Puplava's daily update. He tackles Gold this time. This is exactly what we have been discussing here. It is good to see in print. The whole Earth is a mine-field with one scandal or surprise economic disaster after another. Now we have the effects of Enronitis - whether it is Enron, Global Crossing, Qualcomm, Tyco, Worldcom, Cendant, etc. or economic calamity such as the currency crisis and insolvent banks in Japan, or even the currency crisis or bankruptcy of a nation as in Argentina. The World is a different place now as wars and rumors of wars are everyday events, where terrorism is a constant threat. Gold is a constant that has been a safe haven throughout the millennia. It is no wonder then that Japanese housewives are buying Gold bars, or wealthy Argentines are purchasing Gold to preserve wealth, or that the equities markets are leaning toward Gold producers. Not bad for a "barbarous relic".
Cavan Man
Dear Leigh
If that doesn't bring him back nothing will--beautiful.
Black Blade
Market Summary by Lance Lewis
http://www.dailymarketsummary.net/Today.htm
Snippit:

So, the stage is still set for something to happen in currency land, but there is no overwhelming evidence from the market that it will. Nevertheless, trouble continues to be on the horizon, and the market may break the dollar all on its own with the way things are progressing. Gold feeds on a general lack of confidence. The action of the last few weeks both in gold and stocks confirms to me that the market is finally losing the stubborn bullish confidence in stocks that it has held for the last 20 years of the bull market and amazingly during the first couple years of the current bear market as well. The market is losing confidence in companies' financials, confidence in the recovery, confidence in analysts, and confidence in the widely held belief that setbacks in the market are always met with rallies back to new highs once the Fed has worked its "magic." A lack of confidence in the dollar is the next shoe to drop I think. The risk continues to be to the downside regardless of what happens or doesn't happen this weekend. So, keep those helmets close by�

Black Blade: And another analysis of the Gold market.
Cavan Man
Japanese Prime Minsiter last seen...
......bundling Treasury notes, bills and bonds for trip east.
O'Neill, U.S. Officials Shift, Turn Tough on Japan
(Update2)
By Simon Kennedy

Washington, Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Concern over Japan's third recession in a
decade and frustration with the inability of its leaders to spark a recovery has led
the Bush administration to jettison a promise not to lobby Japanese officials in
public for action.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill has said he will pressure his Japanese
counterpart, Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa, at meetings this weekend in
Ottawa, to take steps to clean up the banking system and boost growth.

``Reality has set in,'' said Gregory B. Fager, the top Asia specialist at the
Institute of International Finance. ``The Bush team came in saying they weren't
going to be as critical as the Clinton officials and then they realized Japan is a
source of instability and that they have to apply pressure.''

O'Neill first changed his tone during a visit to Tokyo in January, breaking the
pledge he and White House officials made last year to reverse Clinton
administration policy and counsel Japan in private. The reversal reflects alarm
within the U.S. government that unchecked stagnation in the world's second
largest economy has financial and geopolitical implications for itself and other
countries, analysts said.

The Treasury secretary told Japanese officials in Tokyo on Jan. 23 that their
efforts to extract the nation from an 11-year slump had failed. Policies aimed at
cheapening the yen and boosting public spending should be replaced by efforts
to reduce 151 trillion yen of bad bank loans and curb deflation, he said.

`Decisive Actions'

``Decisive actions are necessary to solve difficult problems,'' O'Neill said in a
speech at Tokyo's National Press Club. ``Returning to robust and durable growth
is of the utmost importance to Japan, to the U.S., and to the world.''

Japanese consumer prices have fallen for 27 consecutive months, retail spending
dropped for a fifth year in a row during 2001 and unemployment has reached a
record 5.6 percent. Data released today showed household spending fell in
December, cementing a ninth year of declines. The economy won't grow in the
fiscal year beginning April 1, according to government forecasts.

Deterioration in Japan's economy will have effects beyond its borders, analysts
said. John Makin, an American Enterprise Institute economist, predicts
Japanese savers will shrink their bank accounts when deposit insurance
coverage is pared back in April, calculating the resulting fallout will cost the
government $1 trillion to fix.

``Such a crisis would reverberate through the global economy and financial
markets,'' said Ron Bevacqua, a senior economist at Commerz Securities
(Japan) Ltd. ``A sharp reduction in demand as the economy implodes would
likely be followed by a large-scale repatriation of capital that would leave many
economies starved for capital.''

Falling Yen

Even if such a meltdown is avoided, the ongoing slump could weaken other Asian
economies, and perhaps lead to competitive devaluations, analysts said. That
could undermine the world economy at a time when the U.S. is in recession. A
global slowdown began in mid-1997 with the devaluation of the Thai baht.

The yen has declined 16 percent against the dollar since the beginning of last
year and fallen for the four of the last five weeks on doubts that Japanese policy
makers will do enough to boost growth.

Japan's currency fell to 134.64 per dollar, from 133.79, leaving it about a half-yen
from the three-year low it sank to last month. Just this week it shed 1.2 percent
against the dollar and 2.5 percent against the euro.

China, Malaysia, South Korea, and U.S. manufacturers have said Japan is
pursuing a weaker currency, hoping to increase exports, rather than attempting
difficult reforms. O'Neill warned in Tokyo that he won't condone such a policy,
because ``exchange rates cannot improve productivity or fix non-performing
loans.''

Policy U-Turn

There's also a geopolitical calculation in the move to a harsher stance on Japan.
Without a pickup in growth, Japan will be overtaken by China as Asia's premier
economy within two decades, analysts said. Government figures are expected to
show China's economy grew 7.3 percent last year.

``Japan is viewed as a useful friend to the U.S. which looks upon it to keep a
check on China,'' said John Pike, a military analyst for GlobalSecurity.org, a
defense research group.

Underscoring the administration's concern on that front, Secretary of State Colin
Powell accompanied O'Neill to a meeting in January with Prime Minister
Junichiro Koizumi. He told the Japanese leader his country must again become
an ``economic engine'' in its region.

The administration-wide wake-up call to Japan marks a U-turn from a year ago.
Then, O'Neill spoke of approaching its leaders with ``humility.'' Top White House
economist Lawrence Lindsey also argued that ``gaiatsu,'' or foreign pressure, had
proved counter- productive for the Clinton administration and should be replaced
``by a policy of mutual cooperation and respect.''

Summers in Prague

It was common for Lawrence Summers, O'Neill's immediate predecessor in the
Clinton Treasury, to make public comments about what Japan should do.

In September 2000, at the annual meetings of the World Bank and International
Monetary Fund in Prague, Summers said it was ``critical'' for Japanese policy
makers to ``maintain supportive fiscal and monetary policies.'' In a meeting with
Summers in Prague, Japanese Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa promised the
government would spend more money to boost the economy.

O'Neill's approach may be seen as different because he isn't as specific as
Summers in his policy prescriptions. He also has praised Koizumi's embrace of
reform and expressed faith that Japan will return to growth.

``When Summers walked into a room, the Japanese felt they were being
browbeaten, while O'Neill has a more gentlemanly atmosphere about him which
may lessen his blows,'' said Ed Lincoln, a senior fellow at the Brookings
Institution, and a former economic adviser to the U.S. Embassy in Tokyo.

``But, what O'Neill had to say could easily have been said by Summers.''




�2002 Bloomberg L.P. All rights reserved. Terms of Service, Privacy Policy and Trademarks.
Cavan Man
The Japanese are proud people.
Can they play the role of "fall guy"?
Black Blade
Gold rush is on as fear takes a hold
http://money.guardian.co.uk/investments/fundsbondstrusts/story/0,1456,647317,00.html
Snippit:

Gold is traditionally a popular draw during times of economic and political instability, and a combination of factors is behind its current revival. The price rose sharply in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks and has been given a fresh boost by a clutch of what one expert dubbed "fear factors".

Within a short time, we have had the collapse of US energy giant Enron, discount retailer Kmart and telecoms company Global Crossing both filing for bankruptcy, and criticism of financial practices at industrial conglomerate Tyco and Irish pharmaceuticals firm Elan. These have in turn sparked fears of potential accounting problems at other companies.

Then this week there were the revelations that Allied Irish Banks had been defrauded of �530m in the US. All of this has put already-wobbly stock markets in a fresh spin.

Fuelling this is the current surge in demand for gold among the Japanese public, triggered by the decision of the government there to ditch rules that guarantee people's savings in the event of a bank collapse. With the Japanese stock market in turmoil and the yen falling, many people have been pulling their money out of accounts and buying jewellery and gold coins.

Added to that, gold production is starting to decline, which suggests the supply of gold will fall. Merrill Lynch reckons that these factors along with unstable stock markets and low interest rates mean that "the outlook for gold remains positive".


Black Blade: Yet another take on the Gold market. I think that perhaps we are close to establishing a new floor for the price of Gold. As the equities markets continue to plunge on uncertainty and more scandals come to light in the face of deceptive accounting, we will likely see the POG climb to new highs in the coming weeks/months.
Black Blade
Gold could push higher
http://www.news24.com/News24/Finance/Markets/0,4186,2-8-21_1142022,00.html
Snippit:

London - Gold held on to this week's gains of over US$20 in Europe on Friday and was seen building a base around $305 an ounce before challenging higher numbers next week, traders said.

Black Blade: Gold Mining shares tend to "front run" the POG. If the current run in Gold Mining stocks (especially Non-hedger Gold stocks) are any indicator then we should see further price increases for bullion.
Black Blade
Foreigners who bought our gold reap windfall
http://www.smh.com.au/news/0202/09/biztech/biztech11.html
Snippit:

Gold shares have been pushed to five-year highs in response to the long-awaited gold price rally which has raised hopes that the industry might yet be able to hold on to the record production levels of recent years.

But a darker side to the emerging boom is becoming known as the Great Australian Gold Robbery. It's a pointed reference to the invasion of the $5.5 billion export industry by foreign groups.


Black Blade: There are those in OZ who are now crying "We was robbed!" as they see their Gold mines snapped up by foreign interests. I wonder what the Brits think about the stellar returns on their BoE Gold auctions? Will they cast an eye toward Capt. Tony and Eddie George and say "We was robbed!" Think it's time for an audit at Fort Knox (excluding Arthur Andersen of course) Hmmm�
Black Blade
Gold Rush
http://biz.yahoo.com/fo/020208/0208watch_1.html
Snippit:

Gold's convulsive action this week, spiking above $307, has excited attention because of concurrent concerns about the financial system, exchange rates, accounting standards, etc.

Chris Temple of National Investor has a more technical theory. He writes: "As I've discussed in recent weeks, Newmont's successful acquisition of Normandy Mining and Franco-Nevada helped stoke some of this bullishness earlier, as the market cheered the non-hedging policy of Newmont as opposed to South Africa's Anglo Gold, its competing bidder. Newmont has already promised to begin unwinding Normandy's hedge book in an orderly fashion.

"For those still a bit confused by this, Anglo, Normandy and Barrick Gold have been among the biggest gold hedgers in the industry in recent years. Their practices, boiled down, have been to sell future gold production at current prices. While this served to 'lock in' a decent price in a declining market for gold in the late 1990s, gold bugs have hated the practice, as it served to do little more than strengthen the bearish grip on gold...Anglo has now said that it, too, will begin unwinding its hedge positions. This bet on a rising gold price by the big South African miner is a key reason why even more bullishness has crept into the gold arena."

Black Blade: The days of the hedger are over. Barrick and AngloGold will find themselves left alone with disgruntled shareholders who will say "We was robbed!"
Waverider
Ode to TG
Oh, Trail Guide I seek your advice
I�ve a constant torment that's not so nice,
To keep physical only or proxies near -
Many opinions don't make the picture clear.

Belgian is a "physical only" guy
He tries to convince me - I know not why,
Uponroof's a 40-40-20 man,
He's built a "case for stocks" like no other can!

Timbervision shares my own conflict -
Pay the tax and see RRSP's constrict?
To 50 percent of previous amount -
Oh that hurts when my poor fiat I count.

100% appreciation's been mighty enticing
So stocks, you see, are soooo.. inviting,
So please come back, so the Truth be told
Why I should buy *only* physical Gold.

Waverider
Black Blade
Japanese, Fearing End Of Guarantee On Savings, Buy Gold
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/020207/15/2fvig.html
Snippit:

TOKYO (AP)--With their banks battling a recession and bad loans, some Japanese worried about the imminent end of a blanket guarantee on their savings are sinking their money into something that looks more solid -gold.

Sales of $10,000 gold bars at Tanaka Kikinzoku Jewelry in downtown Tokyo have more than doubled in the past several months, company officials said Thursday. They refused to give specific figures, but said some customers have bought as many as 40 of the 2.2-pound bars.

"The end of the government insurance on savings is a big factor," jewelry company spokesman Masakazu Tanaka said. "People are looking for a secure place to put their money."

The Japanese government has offered an unlimited guarantee on bank deposits since shortly after the 1997-98 financial crisis toppled major banks and set off fears of a nationwide run on banks. But come April, it will only insure some types of bank deposits, totaling about $4 trillion nationwide, up to only $75,000. As a result, larger accounts have been shrinking gradually, finance officials say.


Black Blade: The Gold buying frenzy in Japan has not ended or even slowed down. The banking rules changes go into effect on April 1st (yeah - April Fools Day). We should see continued buying in Japan for quite some time. Also, the Government Postal Savings plan has dropped interest rates again - this time next to zero. I suspect that many more Japanese will jump into Gold very soon.
LeSin
EU's - Patten of UK ( ex Hong Kong) displays "Political Will"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/bush/story/0,7369,647554,00.html
Patten lays into Bush's America

Fury at president's 'axis of evil' speech

Jonathan Freedland in Brussels
Saturday February 9, 2002
The Guardian

Chris Patten, the EU commissioner in charge of Europe's international relations, has launched a scathing attack on American foreign policy - accusing the Bush administration of a dangerously "absolutist and simplistic" stance towards the rest of the world.
As EU officials warned of a rift opening up between Europe and the US wider than at any time for half a century, Mr Patten tells the Guardian it is time European governments spoke up and stopped Washington before it goes into "unilateralist overdrive".

"Gulliver can't go it alone, and I don't think it's helpful if we regard ourselves as so Lilliputian that we can't speak up and say it," he says in today's interview.

Mr Patten's broadside came as the French prime minister, Lionel Jospin, warned the US yesterday not to give in to "the strong temptation of unilateralism".

Like France, Mr Patten singled out Mr Bush's branding of Iraq, Iran and North Korea as "an axis of evil".

"I find it hard to believe that's a thought-through policy," he says, adding that the phrase was deeply "unhelpful".

EU officials concede that the US and Europe could now be on a collision course over Iran, with the EU determined to forge a trade and cooperation agreement with Tehran just as Washington has deemed it an "evil" sponsor of terror.

Mr Patten insists that the European policy of "constructive engagement" with Iranian moderates and North Korea is much more likely to bring results than a US policy which so far consists of "more rhetoric than substance".

The commissioner's remarks represent the most public statement yet of what has become a growing sense of alarm in Europe's capitals at the increasingly belligerent tone adopted by Washington.

One senior EU official said: "It is humiliating and demeaning if we feel we have to go and get our homework marked by Dick Cheney and Condi Rice. We've got to stop thinking that the only policy we can have is one that doesn't get vetoed by the United States."

Publicly, the British government continues to stand "shoulder to shoulder" with Mr Bush. But senior Labour figures admit they are deeply troubled by the newly aggressive thrust of US thinking - especially the hints that America could widen the war against terrorism to a clutch of new countries. They are likely to seize on Mr Patten's remarks as they press their case with Tony Blair.

In the interview the former Conservative party chairman delivers a devastatingly comprehensive critique of US strategy. He upbraids Washington for showing much more interest in stamping out terrorism than in tackling terror's root causes.

"When you're addressing that agenda, frankly, smart bombs have their place but smart development assistance seems to me even more significant," he said.

That view is widely held in Europe, typified by Mr Blair's much-quoted "heal the world" speech last year in Brighton. But it barely gets a hearing in today's Washington, Mr Patten concedes, especially since the dramatic success of the US-led military operation in Afghanistan. That has fed a new US mood of "intense triumphalism", according to EU officials, with secretary of state Colin Powell regarded as "a lone voice of reason".

Mr Bush's "axis of evil" speech appears to have been the last straw for EU policymakers. In today's interview, Mr Patten offers withering condemnation of the phrase.

Besides balking at the word "evil", he disputes whether the three countries named are an axis at all, insisting there is no evidence that they are working together on weapons of mass destruction. But Mr Patten also expresses great irritation with Washington for undermining long-established EU efforts to reach out to Tehran and Pyongyang.

"There is more to be said for trying to engage and to draw these societies into the international community than to cut them off," he says.

But Mr Patten's greatest ire is reserved for America's go-it-alone approach to international relations. "However mighty you are, even if you're the greatest superpower in the world, you cannot do it all on your own."

He calls on Europe's 15 member states to put aside their traditional wariness of angering the US and to speak up, forging an international stance of their own on issues ranging from the Middle East to global warming


Waverider
Leigh
Thanks too for the complement. Your beautiful and heart-felt poem has my vote for first place. I noticed a few others posted poetry this past week - maybe we'll see more -poetry is fun. Cheers,
Waverider
Mr Gresham
Emergency Preparations
http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a.tcl?topic=TimeBomb%202000%20%28Y2000%29%20Preparation%20ForumThese discussions went on three years ago, and some wonderful people from all regions shared their best ideas and experiences...
Mr Gresham
Y2k forum
http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a.tcl?topic=TimeBomb%202000%20%28Y2000%29The larger discussion board (over 360,000 posts) is at this link, and is not active now. Amazing discussions, online happenings, parties, music, Dieter, and even an occasional early appearance by the ever-doomful Mr G. (usually under the "Banking/finance" heading -- 1391 discussion threads -- and where most PM discussion took place)
Black Blade
Goodyear to Cut 3,500 Jobs
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020208/ap_on_bi_ge/earns_goodyear_4
Snippit:

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) - The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. on Friday reported losses for the fourth quarter and full year and said it will cut 3,500 more jobs this year to reduce costs.

Black Blade: More "Bones" wheeled off to the growing "Bone Pile". And the Pimps of Wall Street claim that economic recovery is "around the corner."
Black Blade
Crown Cork cutting 700 jobs, closing plants
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020208/n08249393_1.html
Snippit:

PHILADELPHIA, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Crown Cork & Seal Co. (NYSE:CCK) on Friday said it will cut about 2 percent of its work force, close plants and sell assets, taking almost $300 million in charges, in a move the company says will improve its financial performance.

Black Blade: More "Bones" off to the "Bone Pile."
Black Blade
The Devil is in the details
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/sm/20020208/bs_sm/the_devil_is_in_the_details
Snippit:

The jobless rate unexpectedly fell to 5.6% in January from 5.8% in December 2001. But businesses eliminated a more-than-forecast 89,000 jobs, bringing the total loss since the recession began last March to 1.4 million. Although a majority of economists had expected the unemployment rate to notch up to 5.9%, Wall Street was looking for a moderate job loss in the range of 25,000 to 50,000. ``The truth of it is, this is not a very friendly report for the economy,'' says Ethan Harris, senior economist at Lehman Brothers. ``The talk about the recession being already over is probably wrong.''

The brightest piece of Friday's jobs report - the drop in the unemployment rate - isn't so friendly on closer inspection, says Harris. The decline in joblessness was attributable not to a pickup in new hiring but to a significant shrinkage in the labor-force participation rate. Because 924,000 people stopped actively seeking work, the government didn't include them among the ranks of the unemployed. ``The drop in the work force is a sign of workers falling out of the system,'' says Harris. ``It's a sign of workers giving up.''

But it might be unrealistic to expect new hiring to follow suit quickly. Indeed, the length of time it takes to find a job continues to grow. The median duration of unemployment rose to 8.8 weeks in January from 5.9 weeks a year ago, suggesting that laid-off workers aren't being quickly reabsorbed into the work force. People who've been unemployed for more than 15 weeks now account for roughly a third of the total 7.9 million jobless, according to Lehman Brothers. That's especially troubling since Congress has yet to approve a 13-week extension of unemployment benefits.


Black Blade: So it goes - the "Bone Pile" grows.
Black Blade
Bullish bullion all set for more glow
http://www.busrep.co.za/html/busrep/br_frame_decider.php?click_id=345&art_id=ct20020208195508909S3243268&set_id=60
Snippit:

"The temperature for gold has changed. It seems like there is a lot of new investment coming in. I think we can look to further gains next week," one bullion trader said. Much of the rise was due to buying by Japanese investors but dealers said a breach of key resistance levels on historic price charts could fuel increased speculative buying. "If we do close above $300 today, it's a good technical point and we might see more technical buying next week," a dealer in London said. Traders saw resistance at $308, adding that if that level was breached, $320 would be the next challenge.

One European trader said: "We've seen the Japanese continuing to buy a bit every day and the market is very sensitive to the upside at the moment." The Tokyo commodities exchange has registered record trading volumes in gold this week, while the yen gold price has leapt to three-year highs. Weakness in equities has also increased gold's allure. Wall Street stocks fell this week, on fears of bankruptcies and concerns over corporate accounting practices following the collapse of Enron. "Gold has benefited from a lack of alternative investments. Concerns about equities and the economy in Japan are conducive to higher gold prices," another trader said.


Black Blade: So far so good. It appears that next week could be key. It will be up to Europe at the start as Japanese markets are closed on Monday for yet another holiday. However, the Japanese will likely continue to buy physical Gold and Platinum. The insolvent Japanese banks no longer have any honor as they will not insure Japanese citizens savings. The Japanese are voting with their feet and are purchasing Gold as a wealth preservation vehicle and safe haven.
Belgian
Geo-Tensions building !
C. Patten (UK) "not" so diplomatic language, telling big brother how Europ feels about the "axis of evil". CNBC-Europ (saturday) with a documentary on Arabian oil (Gulf states) accumulation excess US dollars and trade relations with Europ ! As if Another's map (1997) was televized in this program ! Seiks (in goldbrokat tunics) talking about dollars/oil and euro/Europ. Exposure of a Irak / Syrian pipeline sanction buster ! Europ (France) at immediate support for UK / Iran unwanted ambassador row (spy ?) .
China T-shirt best seller with picture of OBL (bad taste !).
CNN is massaging US citizens into a "Jemen" action plan.
Pretty close to Saudi Arabia.

All these minor (public) events do point to "polarization" against the dollar. Zelotes also states that Gold doen't need a crashing dollar per s�. Note that Barrick (ABX) appreciated less (11%) than POG (+13%). Sir Adam has the courage to advise on Physical and caution with miners. Great !

The Bush clan (CFR/TC) has been preparing the Eurasian conquest FOR QUITE SOME TIME NOW ! The present tension building has been carefully planned.

USAGold, thanks for reminding us about TG's vieuw of the 1 tonne per day Gold sales. Yes, there is only one correct explanation for this particular modus operandi : Accumulation of as much as possible, CHEAP Physical, by Giants ! And more precisely, those Giants under the US dollar yoke, looking for a long awaited alternative.

All heavy (TG) rains announce their arrival with a first drop(s). WA >> hedgestop >> POG above 300$ >> ...Physical

Thanks for the inspiring poetry.
tedw
investor demand


The one element that has been missing in the Gold Market has been investment demand.This past week that element has entered back into the market.


It may be wishful thinking but I predict $325+ gold soon which is the historic 20 year average price.
tedw
investor demand


The one element that has been missing in the Gold Market has been investment demand.This past week that element has entered back into the market.


It may be wishful thinking but I predict $325+ gold soon which is the historic 20 year average price.
Interstate
Preparation/Insurance

I have been out of town and have been catching up this morning on reading USAG. Great thoughts on preparations, but I have a couple I'd like to share. I visited the Agriculture Extension Center and learned that dry foods (flour, beans, rice, pasta, etc.) can be stored in glass containers with 4-5 bay leaves. one on the bottom and then about every 3 inches. My wife and I did this 3 years ago and it is all still in good condition - no mold, no weavils. I went to the Health Department and learned to put 8 drops of clorox in each gallon of water. Let it sit for at least 30 minutes and then pour it back and forth with another sterilized container several times and that will remove most of the chlorine taste.
Later,
Interstate P.S. Don't forget the pets.
Pizz
(No Subject)
Drove by large foundry this morning. They make concrete bank vaults.

Their storage yard (acres) had vault castings stacked 3 high as far as the eye could see.

Conclusions:

1. Business is good and banks are planning major branch expansions.

2. Banks need more vaults to hold gold (smile).

3. Arthur Anderson is their auditor and is still allowing them to carry the inventory at production cost since all they have to do is minor modifications to make ferry anchors out of them.

Pizz
Pizz
My Contribution to the FOA Recall
Once upon a time
In a land of corruption
A man came along
With thoughts of disruption.

His mind was quick
With insight so keen
He proceeded to post
So all could be seen.

He knew his mission
And set his mind.
Only a few would heed
But wealth they would find.

He planted the seeds
Of a golden crop.
Fiat to burn
The dollar to drop.

The Euro to grow
And powers that be
Could not hide
And all would see.

But then one day
In the midst of the fray
He packed his bags
and his posts went away.

His rivals smile
His followers wander.
Without a leader
their wealth to squander.

If this is our test
and you're out there lurking
Get your butt back
and stop your smirking.
sector
@tedw...About the New Physical Demand from Japan
Without this new Japanese draw factor the cabal has been successful in controlling pog.

This time it will be more difficult in so far as they must have recently done the math:

There are 150 million Japanese, grouped roughly in fours for 25 million families. Each family has $115,000 in cash depositi of which $35,000 will lose insurance in April 2002. Therefore, $875, 000, 000, 000 in deposits are soon to be placed at risk [$35,000 x 25,000 = $875 Billion].

If only 17% of that amount is moved to physical gold [the falling yen showed a yield of 25% gold gain last year] then the draw will be:

$148,750,000,000 � $305 = 487,704,918. troy ounces or

487,704,918 � 32,160 [ounces per tonne] = 15,165 tonnes of gold.

(Previous calculations revealed 19 thousand tonnes but those were done at a $285 gold price.)

The United States plus the IMF does not have 15 ,000 tonnes of metal to deal with this eventuality. At most, after the WA the US has 5,500 to 6,000 tonnes since Turk and Hepburn found the 2,000 tonne [$20,000] book entry debit [Gold and Foreign Currency, note #2, 2000] in GAAP Consolidated Financial Statements for the US. The previous total was 8,000 tonnes thus the new weight of 5,500 to 6,000 tonnes. The IMF reported some 3000 tonnes.

The question facing the MoTU [Master of the Universe] and his tribe is How long can they run the charade? Which is to say how much US/IMF gold do they wish to throw away? All of it?

Dumping all US/IMF gold will mean an immediate run on the dollar and would result in Bannana Republic inflation. The mechanism of price discovery has been exposed thanks to GATA's tireless work.

Imagining that the Japanese will knuckle under to a possible repressive move to BAN Japanese gold sales in ordeer to quell the draw is absurd. The Japanses know all about LDP corruption. When it comes to THEIR stash...THEIR life savings they will just not stand by and watch it eroded by a falling yen.

A key elemment in assessing the Fed's desperation is to assume they HAVE been selling America's gold as the facts unearthed by a platoon of GATA soldiers reveal. It follows from Adam Hamilton's recent piece on the South African Rand that the Treasury and Fed have moved further into the domain of evil by smashing the rand so as to keep their Anglogold and other inside forward sellers marginally alive. See... there must be a supply of metal to sell...what better way to help your forward sellers WITHOUT entering the market? Such a policy directed at a deprived, Third World nation is as risky as it gets. One whistle blower away from pushing Enron executives off the media gallows. One conscience away from replacing Kenneth Lay with Paul O�Neill, Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers...dressed in orange jump suits.

The above calculation of 17% may be too conservative, What if HALF the Japanese families move to gold as the yen keeps falling?

It's 44,602 tonnes of gold just to the Japanese.

Would the Chinese sit on their hands during a Japanese gold stampede? Would the Indians? How about the Saudis with their newfound political "independence" from the West?

At the G-7 meeting [happening now] these numbers are well understood by those who have the metal and poorly appreciated by those who do not.

The people with the metal will win the argument. The moment of self preservation seems to be at hand.
Leigh
Pizz
Yes! Yes! That'll bring him back for sure!!

Who else wants to contribute a poem to our come-back-FOA campaign? I'm going to try to write a really bad rhyme sometime this weekend to try to win the "worst poem" category.


Cavan Man
@ Pizz & @ sector
Keep on "keepin' on". Thanks so much for both of your fine insights. I do think we're real clsoe to a major turn but it is just intuition on my part.
Matt
Hear Ye!
Roses are red, violets are blue
FOA--if I were you,
I'd take heart and tread the trail,
to let us know that all is well!

Simple yes---but I'm at work and can only take three minutes. Best wishes to all--hope this bull is REAL!
TownCrier
HEADLINE, South Africa: Banks correct overdone dip and buyers pile into gold
http://www.busrep.co.za/html/busrep/br_frame_decider.php?click_id=335&art_id=ct20020208191005118S3562404&set_id=60February 09 2002 at 07:48AM
--------Johannesburg - President Thabo Mbeki's state of the nation address was treated as a non-event by the stock market yesterday as investors opted to focus on gold as a buffer against more expected bad news from the US and the global economy.

...Paul Marais, a senior analyst at Barnard Jacobs Mellet, said the market was dominated by a sectoral rotation, with investors buying precious metals and selling base metals on expectations of a pronounced dip in US markets and a concurrent depreciation in the value of the dollar.----------

It's a BIG world of current and potential gold-buyers out there. A seizure in the relatively thin physical market can originate from any corner. Don't be caught out through undue delay and inactivity.

R.
sourdough
sector (02/09/02; 14:24:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 69689)
Does everyone here think it is an "accident" that the Japanese consumer/saver/investor/ is buying gold?
What if it is engineered by the Japanese government along with the help of the other major governments?
Is it a tool to bring about the domestic led recovery of the Japanese economy?
Now I ask again, what is the best investment a jp morgan or a goldman could make (related to Japan)and what potential % gain could be reaped on that investment, if the economy rebounds from internal demand?
Is there anything that these big banks want from Japan?
What access to the Japanese consumer do other governments want and what would it be worth to them?
Perhaps there is no other way to save and turn around Japan than to provide capital gains to the Japanese people.
Talk about stimulus package, you get them herded into gold, then let it go to $1000. you got stimulus. If it works consumer demand picks up, the economy rebounds, the yen strenghtens, the dollar adjusts, it has to eventually anyway. The "CORRECT" spin on a Japanese recovery could help all other economies. Especially if American companies have "dealed"(bought with gold),access to Japanese consumers.
We may be starting to feel lucky, but I`m not so sure it is "just luck".
goldenboy
Poem Contest
Roses are red
Violets are blue
I`ve got my gold
How about you?

Points to be awarded for brevity and clarity of message!
goldenboy
About Real Estate and Gold
There has been a lot of dumping on real estate as an investment on bear sites and so on; but the realty market deserves a little more detail on the analysis end.
Firstly, gold tends to trend upwards faster when real estate has already made the most of its upward move, reflecting the fact that most people spend more money on real estate than gold. After all, it is an inflationary-beneficial asset that has a utility value.....right Christian?
Secondly, it is a very diverse market.....from survival/woodlot/farm enterprises having inherent survival value of the first order to speculative suburban office/warehouse/manufacturing/retail facilities. Therefore it is wrong to generalise.
Obviously the stuff at the margins; ie- office, warehouse, suburbn commercial and even high end residential has a large risk profile......however income residential in safe communities within walking distance to services has a totally different profile and will function as a safe convertible bond in the environment we are in.
goldenboy
11ee8aa9c
Exchange Rates & GoldRecent postings have commented on the slamming of the rand being a very convenient thing for the cabal, and no doubt that is something that has gone through our minds lately what with the fact that the Aussie, Canadian, SA, South American currencies have all been slammed. The ones that stand out in my mind are the rand and Aussie $ as they have been the home of the most convenient hedge.
All this being said, how much lower can they go, what other rabbits are left in the sleeve of the cabal. Fewer, I will wager; but I nonetheless worry about the one stopper I would have were I them. The good news is that there cannot be much ammunition left to them with the current interest rate environment.
Pizz
Leigh
Just got thru listening to one of my favorite motivational, mood classics, Sammy Davis Jr's rendition of "I've Gotta Be Me".

I pictured an animated kilo of gold singing the song. If 90% of that song doesn't fit . . . .

If you can scrounge a download of the song, close your eyes and picture it. Wish I had the ability to cartoon it and post it . . . oh well, back to drinking, er eating my dinner.

Have a good evening - and thanks.

Pizz
Cavan Man
@Pizz
SDjr.how 'bout his classic "fool I am"? that title is wrong I'm sure. Goes like this...."Why can't I fall in love; like any other man 'cause maybe then you'll know the kind of fool I am". I always thought that was his signature song.
Max Rabbitz
Survival
I know I'm a little late with this as the survival discussion was yesterday and we're now doing poems .....nevertheless.....

Safe water is perhaps most essential for survival and I spent a little time last fall researching purification. Since it's hard to store enough water I bought a filter. There are several very good models out there (see camping suppliers). Make sure the filter is absolute, i.e., the pore size is not measured as an average but is "absolute", at least 0.3 microns, 0.2 is better. This will filter out most all bacteria but not viruses. Most viruses are attached to bacteria and are thus filtered out but to be safe treat water first with iodine and then filter. Finally, some of the more expensive filters are impregnated with SILVER as a bactericide. I'm not sure if this is needed if the pore size is "absolute."
Zenidea
Another wet nurse
http://www.australiangold.org.au/index.cfmKeep the mouth powder dry . :) .
Zenidea
Trail guide ! Aussie perspective.
Sir Douglas,
I knowingly know that the best way to learn is to be available. i.e "those that know not and know they know not" : Teach. I mean the more one knows , the obviousness is , of what one dosnt know and then we have our listeners whom generaly seem: "Those that know and know not they know" , i.e the artist , the spontainious minds that situate this forum , albeit right or wrong that work on intuition, and then we have myself (Sir Ray) "Those that know and know they know; The follower that helps keep it all alive and then we have those that know and think they know whom are those that knowingly know that they will not be rejected if we work togeather.
Hence my friend here is an invitation to you to come to Australia first and enjoy a quiet relaxed warm trail under the stars. Last one to spot a satalite is a rotten egg
Smile. HUGS !!!
mikal
GATA's latest update spotlights Washington Times affiliate, Insight Magazine
http://insightmag.com/main.cfm/include/detail/storyid/180093html
��Issue Date:�February 25, 2002
All That Glitters Is Not Gold
From the March, 4 issue; posted Feb. 8, 2002
By Kelly Patricia O'Meara
... But there are many in the world of high finance who aren't buying the official line and warn that Enron is just the first to fall from a shaky house of cards.
Many analysts believe that this problem is nowhere more evident than at the nation's bullion banks, and particularly at the House of Morgan (J.P. Morgan Chase). One of the world's leading banking institutions and a major international bullion bank, Morgan Chase has received heavy media attention in recent weeks both for its financial relationships with bankrupts Enron and Global Crossing Ltd. as well as the financial collapse of Argentina.
It is no secret that Morgan Chase was one of Enron's biggest lenders, reportedly losing at least $600 million and, perhaps, billions. The banking giant's stock has gone south, and management has been called before its shareholders to explain substantial investments in highly speculative derivatives � hidden speculation of the sort that overheated and blew up on Enron.
In recent years Morgan Chase has invested much of its capital in derivatives, including gold and interest-rate derivatives, about which very little information is provided to shareholders. Among the information that has been made available, however, is that as of June 2000, J.P. Morgan reported nearly $30 billion of gold derivatives and Chase Manhattan Corp., although merged with J.P. Morgan, still reported separately in 2000 that it had $35 billion in gold derivatives. Analysts agree that the derivatives have exploded at this bank and that both positions are enormous relative to the capital of the bank and the size of the gold market.
It gets worse. J.P. Morgan's total derivatives position reportedly now stands at nearly $29 trillion, or three times the U.S. annual gross domestic product.
Wall Street insiders speculate that if the gold market were to rise Morgan Chase could be in serious financial difficulty because of its "short positions" in gold... Howe's claim contends that the price of gold has been manipulated since 1994 "by conspiracy of public officials and major bullion banks, with three objectives: (1) to prevent rising gold prices from sounding a warning on U.S. inflation; (2) to prevent rising gold prices from signaling weakness in the international value of the dollar; and (3) to prevent banks and others who have funded themselves through borrowing gold at low interest rates and are thus short physical gold from suffering huge losses as a consequence of rising gold prices."
...Robert Maltbie, chief executive officer of www.stockjock.com and an independent analyst, long has followed Morgan Chase. He tells Insight that "there are a lot of things going on in these companies, but we don't know for sure because much of what they're doing is off the balance sheet. The market is scared and crying out to see what's under the hood. Like Enron, much of what the banks are doing is off the balance sheet, and it's a time bomb ticking as we speak."
Just what would happen if a bank the size of Morgan Chase were unable to meet its financial obligations? "It's tough to go there," Maltbie says, "because it could shake the financial markets to the core."
Bulldog
(No Subject)
Max Rabbitz - survivalGo to the Gold Eagle site and look at the recent reference to this and Y2k. Rather poorly submission by a relatively good thinker. IMHO, y2k was a wake-up call. Cost me a lot of money, but it required me to make some investments. I have every thing recommended for y2k, but I will never use that British water purifer whose name I forget, but it started with a B and was reputed to be used by missionaries for 100 years. Ceramic filter and all that. My cabin could be located next to the Brita commercial of a fresh mountain stream. I had the water tested and the local health care centre had never tested such pure water.

It's a fabulous feeling to be prepared for whatever comes, but none of us want the extreme scenario. I think I should stop the gold accumulation and look at silver. If times do get tough, silver will be readily accepted for what you need to buy, who can make change for a 1 oz gold coin? Frankly, I don't think things get to the point where I have to sell
my physical, but if that comes to pass, I figure when the derivatives game is done and the likes of JPMC bite the dust
and perhaps a judge in Boston decides that GATA does have a prima facie case, who knows where gold goes? $10,000 an oz.
may be a low number.

A lot of the folks on this site prepared for y2k. We are not embarassed, we took a stand. People can dump all over the Gary North's etc., but they have peace of mind. I think that it introduced us to the physical accumulation of gold.

It also allowed us to express our views of the cosmos.

We goldbugs missed out on the stock market gains of the dot.coms and general market. I hazard a guess that those that followed the recommendations of Doug Casey, Davidson and Rees Mogg at Strategic Investment lost a lot of money in the gold market. My stocks doubled this week and I need them to do so a lot more. I have BGO at $10.

I really do not want to buy other than physical, but I don't think anyone can lose with NEM. I figure an unhedged miner
like this might quadruple this year.

The exercise now is to get rid of your crap paper and accumulate as much physical as possible. On the other hand,
you might make a fortune on the short side of equity stocks.
Whatever happens, I believe that the consensus of this forum will stand you in good stead. Peace be with you.
Gandalf the White
ATTN: goldenboy
The Hobbits hope that you did not accidently post your Password !!! IF you did, please ask Jeff for a new one as someone is known to use passwords to cause problems. The Wiz is crossing his fingers and casting a good spell for you. Hope that I misreading my crystal ball and totally incorrect !!
<;-)
Waverider
Venezuela Bolivar Slips After Calls for Chavez Ouster
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?touch=1&btitle=Top%20News&T=sa_content.ht&s=APGRZNBZ7VmVuZXp1Snippit:
"Venezuela's currency lost more than 1 percent against the dollar for a second day after a military officer called on President Hugo Chavez to resign following a night of protests led by an air force colonel.

The central bank, which raised short-term interest rates this week to 50 percent to help prop up the currency, sold as much as $200 million from reserves to stem the bolivar's slide, traders said. The currency weakened 10 bolivars to 792.5 per dollar after slipping 1.3 percent yesterday.

Central bank reserves, including an oil income fund, fell 17 percent since late November to $16.6 billion as Venezuelans protested Chavez's moves toward seizing private property and undermining democracy. National Guard Capitan Pedro Flores called for the president to step down at a rally last night, and Air Force Colonel Pedro Soto said 75 percent of Venezuela's military want the president to resign."

Waverider: It looks like Venezuela is the next South American crisis waiting to happen. I wonder if they'll make it through next week without a military coup d'etat.
Black Blade
Gold's floodgates open, finally Above $300, metal's rally to spark mania, some say
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?print=1&guid={A1FB1273-CB16-4A00-AE52-98BDEAE5B8F8}&siteid=mktw
Snippit:

"The meltdown of a G-7 economy is rare," says Carl Weinberg, chief economist of High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, N.Y. "Things like the big oil shocks of the '70s caused a flight to gold, and that was an unprecedented event."

This time, say gold's optimists, who remember fondly when gold was last at $400 (January 1996) and $800 (January 1980), it really is different. "If you look at the popular press, every article you read on gold is that gold is no longer money, that it is finished," says Lassonde, a co-founder of Canada's Franco-Nevada Mining (CA:FN), one of two gold producers that will merge to form the world's largest gold miner, Newmont, later this month.

"In the past two months, I have started to see more positive articles on gold," Lassonde says from his Toronto office. "As gold breaks the $300 barrier and goes to $325, that will drive the bull market in gold."

Black Blade: There are a number of currency crises and banking fiascos along with cratering equities markets that bode well for Gold. We see a depreciating Yen in Japan with an insolvent banking system and a failing Government Postal Savings system. We also have seen the Argentine people riot against their government as the Argentine Peso devalues on its way to becoming worthless. Now a new fiasco is brewing in Venezuela. I have discussed this very subject a couple of weeks ago. The Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez is a Marxist who idolizes none other than Cuban dictator Fidel Castro. His latest threats are to nationalize all petroleum interests and the nations banking system. These threats have infuriated the Venezuelan business community and lead to street protests. The Venezuelan currency, the devaluing Bolivar is on the fast track to becoming worthless, as is the Argentine Peso. This oil rich nation is the leading OPEC exporter of oil to the US. They have the ability to dictate terms of pricing oil to the US by using oil supply as a weapon. The currency problems of Argentina and Venezuela are just the tip of the iceberg. There are serious cracks in the dam as the Brazilian Real appears to be ready for some serious devaluation as well. Thought that the Asian Contagion was bad? This is just the second act perhaps, but just as serious if not worse as these currency crises are certain to spill across the S. American and Central American borders (and even into Mexico). The question is how will this impact Gold? Will Latin Americans rush to Gold as a safe haven as their respective currencies crash? What about the impact of higher petroleum prices have on Gold if Venezuela restricts supply to raise prices? Life is about to take another "interesting" turn. One thing is certain, these days Gold looks like a more certain safe haven in an uncertain world.
Black Blade
Waverider - Venezuela is Just One Currency Crisis

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez was once arrested and tried for treason in a failed coup attempt when he was a minor military officer several years ago. The coup failed and he was captured. He was sentenced to prison and after a few years of incarceration he ran for the presidency and won. Strangely he is an avowed Marxist and idolizes Fidel Castro.
Worse than a Venezuelan currency crises is the one developing in Brazil. The Brazilian economy is key to South America. If Brazil falls then it is a "domino effect" that will likely cascade throughout Latin America. The Global Economy is fragile enough that a Latin American currency crisis could trigger a course of events that take down the Global Economy in short order. Argentina is a prime example of what could happen. Just magnify the Argentine crisis a hundred-fold. You would definitely what some Gold portfoio insurance.

It is no wonder then that the wealthy Argentines and Japanese are rushing to Gold. Word is that Europeans are also making more Gold purchases there days. What about Americans? Well, what can one say about Grasshoppers. The American masses are usually late to the party in any case. I suspect that most Americans will be caught flat-footed when their investments and retirement accounts vaporize (just like many Enron employees). Cheers!

Black Blade
auenboy
Gold shares with Income
Maybe old news but I recently found out that Agnico Eagle issued 125,000,000 Convertible Debentures paying 4.50% yearly and conv. into common shares @ $14.00. for 10 years. Seems a good alternative for gold investoers that need both income and growth.
Waverider
India: Gold as an investment option
http://www.hinduonnet.com/stories/2002021000201100.htmSnippit:
"Gold now is living up to its reputation of being among the most liquid of all assets. Amidst shaky equity markets and weak currencies, gold has come to the forefront as an investment option. This was evident last week when gold prices zoomed on Friday last and touched Rs. 4,960 per 10 gm and 10 tola bars were quoted at five year high of Rs. 58,400."

Waverider: ~Black Blade - thanks for outlining the larger picture in SA. Canadians too - lots of grasshoppers up here - I talk to my friends/colleagues and the topic just doesn't grab them - I find it amazing! This article is interesting in that Gold is getting some mainstream media attention in India. Cheers!
Black Blade
Treasury blows �350m in great gold sale gamble
http://www.observer.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,647646,00.html
Snippit:

The surge in the price of gold could leave the Treasury's two year sell-off of its reserves, which ends next month, nursing a loss of hundreds of millions of pounds. The sell-off caused a storm of public protest when it began in 1999.

At the current gold price of $305 an ounce, the value of the 375 tonnes of gold auctioned by the Bank of England on behalf of the Treasury over the past two years is $3.7 billion (�2.6bn).

According to Bank of England records and a recent House of Commons Public Accounts Committee report, the Treasury received just �2.25bn in 16 auctions between July 1999 and last month. The total Treasury 'loss' compared with the situation if the Treasury had kept the gold would be around �350 million at current levels.


Black Blade: I asked the very same question a couple of days ago. As I suspected the Brits are a bit ticked off with Captain Tony and Eddie George for giving away their birthright.
Waverider
Black Blade
http://cnnenespanol.com/I came across this site - CNN en espanol - thought it may interest you if you're not already aware of it. Cheers,
Waverider
Black Blade
Getting Debt-Free in an Economic Slump
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020209/business_column_assets_dc_1.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Layoffs and the stock market plunge have forced Americans to take a cold, hard look at their financial assets and cut back on spending.

Yet after a brief period of restraint following the Sept. 11 attacks, consumer debt went up again -- especially over the holidays -- leaving many households more in the red than ever. ``The unfortunate thing is that these individuals were not aware of how much debt they had,'' said Kevin Williams, a counselor at the Consumer Credit Counseling Service (CCCS) in Forth Worth, Texas. ``It doesn't become an issue when they can make the minimum payment, and creditors are not calling them. But once their income is stopped or reduced, they get a shock.''

The abrupt economic downturn after Sept. 11 caught a lot of people off guard, and sent them in droves to credit counselors as they got laid off or feared a job loss.


Black Blade: Get out of debt, get a food and basic goods storage program started, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, get enough cash on hand for several months expenses, and get defensive with investments. Paying off debt is an instant return by extinguishing interest payments. Also one can sleep much better at night knowing that they are prepared for the uncertainties in life. There are those (Grasshoppers) who will laugh and scoff at those who are prepared, when calamity hits they are also the first to whimper and snivel about how unfair life is. I have no sympathy for them. People must learn to take personal responsibility - while some are intelligent enough to learn vicariously, others must learn the hard way. Let's call it "Natural Selection".
Black Blade
Argentines in new protest of 'gov't of thieves'
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020209/n09264854_1.html
Snippit:

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina, Feb 9 (Reuters) - Thousands of Argentines took to the streets in the early morning hours on Saturday, banging pots and pans in the latest peaceful protest against a ``government of thieves'' unable to end a chaotic recession in its fourth year.

Members of the decaying middle class, frustrated by the long slump that has seen their bank deposits frozen and slashed in value and even resulted in insulin shortages, converged on the plaza in front of the presidential palace. ``We've been raped by politicians, banks and judges,'' read one giant homemade banner held up by protesters as they streamed down Buenos Aires' elegant avenues after midnight.

Many economists say Argentina's problems result in part from decades of government corruption and overspending. In January new President Eduardo Duhalde yielded to months of crisis and defaulted on part of the $141 billion public debt and devalued the peso currency.

With unemployment estimated over 20 percent, entire industries closing their doors and the international community so far unwilling to offer financial aid, most believe the once-prosperous country of 36 million people will spiral further into chaos this year.

The government has frozen some bank deposits to prevent a disastrous run amid the confidence crisis, which has suffocated consumer spending and enraged savers. ``People are starving. There are 14 million poor, the hospitals are out of supplies, pharmacies are closing and these corrupt politicians we have keep robbing us,'' one protester told local television. ``This thing is near its end.''

The devaluation has led the peso to lose about half its value against the dollar on markets and many Argentines fear it could fall further when a week-long ban on foreign exchange trade ends next Monday. ``This devaluation is going to lead us to disaster,'' said another protester, carrying a small child on his shoulders as many families participated in the march. ``It's just more money that will go toward this government of thieves.''


Black Blade: "Government of thieves" - That is governments exists for. When the US Dollar was devalued after Frankie D. Roosevelt confiscated Gold, this was a government theft of the people just the same as taxes that are imposed without the consent of the people. As described in earlier posts this currency crisis is spreading across South American borders. Venezuela and Brazil are likely to be the next victims of an economic crisis. Of course Colombia, Peru and Ecuador don't appear to be all that health either. "Interesting Times"
Belgian
GOLD Talk.....talk.....talk....
Western Gold-talk has "one" particular characteristic : This talk is for 95% about "paper-gold" ! And many here know what kind of paper...I'm talking (hum) about.
This in very sharp contrast with those (not westerners) who don't talk (publicly) about Gold. These Gold-silents, actually *BUY THE PHYSICAL*, scarsely available !
Be it Arabian oilproducers...Chineze Giants...Indians or Japaneze housewifes...they say nothing about the precious accumulation ! Isn't this remarquable ?

*What* is it that makes it so uncommon to express the possession of Physical Gold ? Why has the Possession of Physical Gold lost its status ? Where all other expressions of wealth are adored and exposed with confidence ?

Yes, Sir Douglas...we/us...western goldbugs ! In full contrast with Arabian - Indian, Gold exposure.

Gold-buggism (paper that is) is making a terrible mistake with promoting the paper-unprecious at the present "crucial" crossroad ! So much effort has been and still is "invested" in finding/providing *evidence* for the obscene Gold-situation. And the in-consequent conclusion of adoring paper-gold is imvho un-responsible and seriously contradictional.

Consequent REAL GOLD ADVOCATES must have LOL !? They expose the "price" of Gold and derivatives, whilst "hiding" the "VALUE" of the essential yellow. The Chineze central bank even couldn't get their Gold-message (+ 100 tonne-official-?) across the western bugs !

Goldbugs (talkers) deliver masses of evidence about the unbelievable/unimaginable explosive situation in wich Gold-Valuation has landed. But ugly-paper must *be* before Precious-Physical to be advized serenely.

I do have a problem with this blatant contradiction. It is the general consensus of POG=600$ target that causes the paper-behavior ! But why all the evidence effort for obtaining that 600$ result ? How irrational.
Once Gold has been set FREE...will it stop at this "ridiculous" valuation (sorry, price) of 600$ !?
Thousands (ten thousands) of tonnes paper-gold-shorts ! And this will only result in a little bambam of 600$ per ounce !? Common fellow goldphiles, wake up !

All paper-talkers are scared to death that Gold might (is) going to be re-valuated at tens of thousands of worthless US dollars. What will happen to this paper-circus must be excluded from any possible projection. The 600$ per ounce vieuwers don't seem to realize how little Gold there is available against the artificial perpetum of confetti production.

The 1971 - 1980 run of x25 POG isn't understood by present paper worshippers (and dollar holders). Many goldbugs tend to agree with a 1929-like crash of the last standing NY stockmarket...but only see an obscene POG of 300$ double to an even absurd valuation of 600$ ! As if they (goldbugs) also stand ready to sell paper-gold...should the price rise beyond their 600$ arbitrary obsession.

Nobody ever asked any mining director what would happen if POG should explode into the thousands ! And with "explode", I mean in a rush with the speed of light. More and more examples (non gold) out there of how fast and mercyless things can evolve are available daily.

Physical Gold in Possession should not be timidly mentioned in gold talks/advise/promotion as for the sake of being complete. I told you to so to have 5%...10% of Physical...

With much respect for all Gold talkers who are serving the "cause" with hard working...I would like to say : There isn't anything more Precious than Physical Gold in Possession ! Spread this word with as much honesty as possible. Thank you.


Grubstaker
Sir Belgian,
Have no fear as there are a few of us here holding much and saying little. I have only been around this forum less than a year. My decisions concerning GOLD possesion were made years ago. In the very early 90's I began to amass, ignoring the paper equities/SM madness. I instinctively knew a "portfolio" was nothing more than digital entries on paper which were subject to ANYTHING. At $375(1990), $325 (1992), $280(1999)then lastly last April I topped it off at $260. It is my belief that those who have not entered at this last hour of the game WON'T. If they do at all (buy physical)it will be part of the mad scramble. As we know by then there won't be any for sale!! Ask any Argentinian.
tedw
Investment demand

If this time the rally is for real it will be because of investment demand, which has been missing in previous rallies and for which reason they failed (IMO).


My mother is, I think, a typical older American investor.
She is scared of the stock market for fear of losing everything she has worked for her whole life. The rate of return on bonds is so low she has stopped buying t-bill when they mature.

Lately, she has taken notice of the price rise in Gold stocks and is considering them. She has fears of investing in stocks in South Africa.Physical gold is less appealing to here because of security concerns and the hassle that goes along with obtaining physical.

When Mom starts buying gold stock it will be the sure sign that Gold has finally come back.


PS: Nobody has told her its only a commodity; her whole life Gold has been......well, Gold.
Knallgold
Gold buying
BB "..Word is that Europeans are also making more Gold purchases these days..."

Yes,yes,bought Goldcoins last Tuesday (from CPM).I just didn't want to wait any longer.Very good feeling of buying before POG breaked the 300...hardly can't wait for their arrival.Thanks Centennial for the great service!

BTW,my friend,knowing I am full in Gold,asked me a week ago if it would be too late to buy into it (shares)...his Dells don't perform well.

Au-some
(No Subject)
There once was a man named Trail Guide
who told us fiat was a lie-
"The paper will burn
and it should be spurned.
So buy GOLD and hang on for the ride!"
Black Blade
Gold Digest - More on JP Morgan Chase and PM Derivatives
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_02/chapman021102.htmlSnippit:

Morgan does have $30 trillion in derivatives. Morgan is the leader of the gold manipulation cartel. They have many gold loans outstanding and they are mega short. It now comes out, as we guessed, that Morgan as reported by the Comptroller of the Currency, as of 9/10/01, held 80% of the gold derivatives the COC reported. It looks like Morgan could have been dumping short gold derivative positions on Enron to lower its exposure and this explains the mega loans Morgan made to Enron as it was going under. This also means Morgan and probably Citigroup are left to defend the gold manipulation position. They don't have that kind of strength left, which means anything can happen.

The key of course is JP Morgan. Their exposure on gold is colossal, but as congress digs into Enron, Morgan will get deeper and deeper into the financial quagmire. Morgan could go bankrupt and that means these gold shorts and derivatives could implode. That would give very serious upside velocity to gold, which would pull silver and platinum with it.


Black Blade: There are rumors that JPMC has engaged in trading in short positions on Gold and Silver derivatives. Didn't they move their Gold and Silver trading activities to a London-based subsidiary before the reporting rules on derivatives were implemented? We have learned that Enron was heavily involved in Silver derivatives and now it comes to light that they may have been involved in large Gold derivative positions as well. There are louder and more urgent concerns over the last few days that JPMC could be close to collapse. "Interesting Times"
nickel62
Chew on these main points for awhile and the truth starts to become more apparent about the manipulation of the money supply of the US and it's ramifications...
THE ULTIMATE ARGUMENT AND THE ULTIMATE TEST

Copyright 2002 J.N. Tlaga


In Amicus Curiae Argument of October 22, 2001 - http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/tlaga102501.html - very truly yours brought to the attention of the US District Court in Boston,

(1) that because of across-the-board collateralization of reversible gold transactions, every single ounce of central banks gold that is now swapped, on loan, or under repurchase agreement is for all practical purposes irreversibly sold in exchange for US Treasury securities, and

(2) that all such irreversible sales of central banks gold in exchange for US Treasury securities were rendered not reportable to the legislators and to the general public by way of extra legal "authority" cooked up at the IMF by the proxy of BIS and later adopted by the ECB, and

(3) that US Treasury does not keep current ownership record of its securities that are sold through the Federal Reserve "Primary Dealers" and Federal Reserve controlled banks.

The purpose of that disclosure was to make the Court realize that unless the Federal Reserve's books and records were produced for inspection in the course of discovery procedure, there was no practical way to ascertain the actual ownership status of central banks gold and the true extent of "gold carry trade" complained of by the plaintiff.

There are two kinds of fiat money in circulation:

(1) Federal Reserve notes, which earn no interest, are used as cash by the general public, and are commonly known as "US dollars", and

(2) US Treasury securities - bills, notes and bonds - commonly known as "US bonds", which earn interest and, unbeknownst to general public, are used as cash in global banking and new-world-order trade.

Transactions paid in "dollars" are subject to reporting, control, and restrictions related to income tax and "money laundering", but transactions paid in "bonds" fly under the income tax radar, and unleashing IRS dogs by the Fed upon such transactions depends entirely on who the parties are. "New-world-order trade", as it applies to the United States, is a shorthand for a predatory system, which, essentially, consists of the following:

(1) Closing down factories in the United States where wages and taxes are high, currency is overvalued, and the cost of environmental protection is high;

(2) Opening the same factories in low wage countries with undervalued currencies and non-existent environmental protection;

(3) Exporting products of so transplanted factories back to the United States to maximize profit due to wage and, especially, rate of exchange differentials, and to apply the "go abroad or go bankrupt" squeeze on the patriotic manufacturers who resist the pressure to move their factories abroad;

(4) Supplying the US populace with excessive consumer credit, progressively offset against real estate equity, whose appraisal is in turn pumped up far beyond its real value, in order to provide market for imported goods at the expense of equity created by prior generations (selling America from under feet of her people).


Following the Amicus Curiae Argument, very truly yours submitted in "Thanksgiving Day Question" a direct inquiry to Dr Ron Paul, Texas Representative in Congress, whether or not was it his intention to seek the office of the President of the United States in the general elections of November 2, 2004, by way of early declared campaign, whose objective would also be to renew House and Senate. http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/tlaga112201.html

And one week later, in a proposal THE ALTERNATIVE FUTURE, a Call for Overnight Revolution was made with declared intention to open national debate on how to transform the present fiat money regime into an honest-money regime without harming the economy. What is unique about this proposal is that the morning after the proposed overnight revolution the money supply remains unchanged, and economy proceeds as usual, while all the Federal Reserve notes and all the Treasury securities have been neatly excised from circulation. The task to abolish the fiat currency without destroying money supply as such has always been pictured as impossible dream, and thereby the strongest argument for maintaining fiat money forever. THE ALTERNATIVE FUTURE puts this false argument to its well deserved rest. http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/tlaga112801.html

And this Call for Overnight Revolution was meant to be not only the ultimate proposal to return to honest money, but also the ultimate argument in "Howe vs BIS" and the ultimate test of our national will to return to honest money.


It came to me as an afterthought, that the argument the defendants in "Howe vs BIS" were most likely relying upon was absent from the record of their case. What if - I could not help not to ask myself - the myth that there was no viable alternative to the fiat money regime was set adrift to reach Judge Lindsay innocuously from many directions in order to leave what professional spin artists call "adequate residue". This residue could in time graduate to the reasoning that even though the fiat money regime and its gold price manipulation scheme was nothing short of criminal, its only alternative was worldwide chaos. Therefore, decision for the plaintiff, upholding the rule of law, would in effect amount to upholding anarchy, while decision for the defendants, although repugnant to the existing law, would in effect amount to upholding the rule of law, no matter how limping this rule might appear to be as a result thereof.

This kind of sophistry, ending in the open embrace of irrational conclusion, would not be unheard of to the lawyers among us, but it could be prevented by publishing an argument amply demonstrating that there was a viable alternative to the fiat money regime. Once published, such an argument could not be unpublished, meaning, no spin artist could vacuum it from people's minds and from public domain. We may never know whether this ultimate argument, solely by virtue of its existence, will in the end be helpful in shaping the Court's decision in "Howe vs BIS", but procedurally, it would not be proper nor graceful to seek to file it as an amendment to Amicus Curiae Argument.


When the Order of US District Court for the District of Massachusetts, denying my motion for leave to file Amicus Curiae Argument in "Howe vs BIS", became known to me on November 29, I managed, via postings during 20:00 Hours segment of Gold Forum (www.gold-eagle.com), to prevent premature comments which, I feared, might not fit the proprieties of the court decorum, which in my book also apply outside the courtroom. But I could not preempt private questions, which kept hammering at two points:

(1) How come your brief misspells Dred Scott as "Dread Scott"?
(2) How come your brief "does not cite a single case or statute"?

I knew about "Sanford's Curse". (Because his name was erroneously "corrected" in DRED SCOTT v. JOHN F. A. SANDFORD, the plaintiff's name will be similarly "corrected" until the end of time.) And yet, I found myself involuntarily executing this curse as cast, not unlike the famous Cardinal, who, notwithstanding endless admonitions against such pitfalls, still managed to say in Easter sermon: "Before the cock denies, Peter will crow trice." And just like that famous Cardinal, I will forever wish for that momentary pause before my error was set in stone. The whole amicus argument was drafted, edited and printed between Friday night and Monday morning. Haste makes waste.

How come my brief "does not cite a single case or statute"?

Because in my view there is no case or statute to cite.

The whole point of my argument is that "Howe vs BIS" is a unique case, whose correct adjudication requires discarding and not citing (i.e. upholding) wrongful precedent cases and wrongful statutes. Federal Reserve System and its fiat money regime are as illegitimate as the slavery system used to be. The statutes and cases in its favor are not to be cited and upheld, but summarily scraped.

Under the ancient "stare decisis" doctrine, the Common Law rule requires that court decisions once made should be upheld by posterity. As a result, the body of Common Law grows by squeezing the later cases into the pigeon holes of the earlier cases. Often the interpretations employed to make the later cases fit the precedent cases stretch both the Common Law and common sense.

Then one day a trial court discards a long line of such squeezed-in precedent cases on the theory that they represent impermissible deviation from the prior good law. Such a rejection, if sustained by the appellate courts, overrules the affected line of precedents, and resets the clock back to the prior good law.

If the Supreme Court of the United States would have summarily discarded slavery cases and statutes in its Dred Scott ruling, the history of these United States would have been completely different than it was, because the Civil War would have never taken place. To this day, Southern gentlemen can be heard calling it "the Northern Aggression War". In my view, it was "the Supreme Court's Inadequacy War". When Horatio Nelson sailed into the battle of Trafalgar, his ship signaled to the fleet: "England expects that every man will do his duty." In 1856, Dred Scott signal - "America expects that Supreme Court will do its duty" - fell on blind eyes and deaf ears.

The Supreme Court should have taken the position, that precedent decisions and colonial statutes upholding the status of African slaves as that of a chattel property of their owners were null and void, because they represented impermissible deviation from the earlier precedents and statutes, and, in any case, they were abrogated by the Declaration of Independence, which must be interpreted as universal in scope. There may not be any limitation on freedom or any exclusion from freedom. Freedom is like love; either it exists and then it's absolute, or it's not absolute and then does not exist at all.

Instead, the Supreme Court invalidated the Missouri Compromise and ruled that it was legal under US Constitution to extend slavery to all free states and territories, essentially, because to rule otherwise would deprive slave owners of their lawful property whenever they would choose to travel to a free state. Abraham Lincoln, who believed the Declaration of Independence was valid universally, characterized this reasoning and the legal reality it heralded, as follows:

... if any one man choose to enslave another,
no third man shall be allowed to object.

"Howe vs BIS" is a Dred Scott case of our time. It challenges the fiat money system, which, next to slavery, is the second cancer on American democracy. And the US District Court in Boston does not have to overrule any wrongful statute or precedent case upholding it. All that is needed to do away with this cancer is to deny the defendants motions to dismiss and let the case proceed into its pretrial stage.

When the discovery procedure will begin, and Reginald Howe will serve a Notice to Produce the Federal Reserve's registry of US Treasury securities transactions, this will be the beginning of the end of the Federal Reserve System. For the first time in history, everyone will know who is paying to whom for what and why in the underground currency of US Treasury securities.

Only a small part of US Treasury securities is sold directly to the public and registered at the US Treasury. The bulk of these offerings is bought by the Fed itself and the Fed-anointed "Primary Dealers" who register all subsequent transactions with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. This record of US Treasury securities transactions is needed to guard against unlicensed counterfeiting (in contrast to the licensed counterfeiting which produces US Treasury securities in the first place).

In the old days, when US Treasury securities were issued in printed form, mafia enterprises printed their own "US Treasury securities" to be used abroad as collaterals for business loans. In due course, the loans would be repaid, "collaterals" would be returned, and in theory US Treasury should never have any reason to suspect additional securities were in circulation because they would never be tendered in for redemption, they would only be used as collaterals. But reality is always different than theory. When Franklin National Bank collapsed as a result of heavy losses in foreign exchange operations, the paper trails of the parties holding other end of FNB transactions led to bogus US Treasury securities.

US Treasury securities are issued in electronic form nowadays. When J.P. Morgan offers US Treasury securities to some central bank as collateral for a gold loan, how does the bank know that such electronic securities are genuine and were not made up by J.P. Morgan's subsidiary, who is one of the "Primary Dealers"? The bank knows securities are genuine because Federal Reserve Bank of New York says so.

Obtaining this track record of US Treasury securities changing hands all over the world, will supply the track record of what is really happening in "global economy". A record of transfers of Federal Reserve notes, such as that of Clearing House Interbank Payment System (CHIPS), does not supply this essential information.

When J.P. Morgan borrows gold from Bundesbank and wires collateral of US Treasury securities, the transaction is recorded in Federal Reserve Bank of New York but is absent in CHIPS record.

We have every right to expect that the records of gold borrowings from US Treasury will be utterly entertaining. E.g., Goldman Sachs borrows gold from former employee, Robert Rubin, in his capacity of the Secretary of the Treasury of the United States, and wires him a collateral of US Treasury securities. Rubin puts these securities in "deep storage" to be released to Goldman Sachs when Goldman Sachs returns the borrowed gold. But instead of returning the borrowed gold, Goldman Sachs wires another load of US Treasury securities as collateral for another gold loan. In the end, during Mr Rubin's tenure as Secretary of the Treasury, Goldman Sachs and other gold bullion dealers borrowed much more gold than could be produced or reacquired on gold market within reasonable time. As a result, when Mr Rubin resigned as Secretary of the Treasury, he left behind what con men call... "a situation". Treasury may not call in the gold loans, because this would expose the fact that they are not repayable, which would force canceling collaterals and official disclosure of the loss of gold to Congress. (Unofficially the whole Congress knows about it, which is yet another reason to begin replacing it in the incoming elections.) In order to maintain a false pretense that national gold bullion reserves are intact, Secretary of the Treasury and the President himself not only deny the loss, but continue to give away the remaining gold reserves which could still be saved. When ultimately confronted about it, they will inevitably claim they had no choice, because their only alternative would be the worldwide economic collapse. (And this, of course, is the same kind of fallacy, as that the abolishing of fiat money would result in destruction of money supply and return to barter economy.)

This whole story, and much more besides, can be deducted from US Treasury securities registry at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The shredding of transcripts of the proceedings of the Fed's Open Market Committee, that is generating so much of hullabaloo these days, is a red herring device by which the establishment planners hope to highjack Ron Paul's mantle for someone like Ralph Nader or Harry Browne, whose job will then be to steer the national opposition into a ditch. From the day one, those FOMC transcripts were introduced as a disinformation instrument. (Intelligence agents routinely maintain diaries in which they lie to themselves in order to mislead counterintelligence and to condition their own minds.)

Again, US Treasury securities are used as cash by global enterprises, and this insulates the affected transactions from any inquiry of tax authorities, such as Internal Revenue Service. Only the transactions involving Federal Reserve notes, i.e., paper dollars, are reported to the IRS. The records of transactions paid for with US Treasury securities are kept only at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and at the entities domiciled in the places like Bermuda or Cayman Islands.

And this is the primary reason for all the anxiety "Howe vs BIS" generates among the powers that be.


The ultimate test of our national will to return to honest money swings on the very same pivot as the ultimate argument in "Howe vs BIS".

The myth that fiat money could not be abolished without destroying the money supply itself operated as a giant uniform excuse for everyone. As long as that myth stood unchallenged, every Regular Joe and Plain Jane could say: I am very much for honest money, but, unhappily, it is too late for it now. Destruction of the money supply would cause more problems than honest money would solve. The time to resist fiat money was before Christmas 1913. Now we are stuck with it.

But when an orderly argument rejects this fallacy, Joe's and Jane's excuse for inaction is lost. Because the return to honest money can be executed by a willing President and Congress without coming anywhere near the calamities advertised by the fiat money racket, every Regular Joe and Plain Jane now faces the question: Why am I doing nothing to elect honest money President and honest money Congress?

What is it that keeps me in my mummified state of inaction?

This simple question will in time compel millions of Joes and Janes to stand up and be counted when Ron Paul or someone of his stature will accept the invitation to lead us back to the promised land.


EURO AND GOLD PRICE MANIPULATION, published in December 2000, http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_00/tlaga121100.html contains the following challenge:

All Nobel laureates in economics now living, including specifically Professor Robert Mundell, are hereby challenged to come up with a rational argument against this presentation. Nothing would please me more than to be proven wrong. But if the best of the best will not come forward and prove that I am wrong, then something will have to be done about it. And that something can only be the return to honest money...

February 9, 2002


tedw
Gold and the Bible

On these foggy Sunday morning in Oregon, let me raise the question of Gold, The Bible, and scriptural prophecy. Sometime back I was informed by an acquaintance that their is Bible prophecy in the Book of Revelation that at some time during the last days Gold will become worthless. Does anyone out there know the location of this prophecy?

Secondly, although there is much speculation and accusation of conspiracy and price fixing in the Gold world, and even names are named. But who is behind the conspirators, if the accusations be true? Something good, or something bad?

If indeed there is a conspiracy of something bad in the Gold world, could it be rightly said we are dealing with a
................ Satanic Conspiracy. There, I said it. And what are its ends, its designs? Is this part of a larger conspiracy for a One Word Government, or a New World Order?

Just asking.

sourdough
stratfor subject headline
G-7 May Settle for Japanese Quarantine Feb 08
"G-7 leaders face a dilemma: Bankrupt the world trying to save an unsalvagable Japan or isolate it and let it sink."
(How would you like to be Japanese and read that)
Gimli_
Gold and the Bible: Gold cast in the street at the end of the age
I might first note that we don't know exactly when the "Day of God's Wrath" will begin, and before that time there will be great economic chaos which could bode very well for precious metals. Here goes the end-time verses though:


Ezek 7:19-21 They shall cast their silver in the streets, and their gold shall be removed: their silver and their gold shall not be able to deliver them in the day of the wrath of the LORD: they shall not satisfy their souls, neither fill their bowels: because it is the stumblingblock of their iniquity. As for the beauty of his ornament, he set it in majesty: but they made the images of their abominations and of their detestable things therein: therefore have I set it far from them. And I will give it into the hands of the strangers for a prey, and to the wicked of the earth for a spoil; and they shall pollute it.

Prov 11:4 Riches profit not in the day of wrath: but righteousness delivereth from death.

Isa 2:20-21 In that day a man shall cast his idols of silver, and his idols of gold, which they made each one for himself to worship, to the moles and to the bats; To go into the clefts of the rocks, and into the tops of the ragged rocks, for fear of the LORD, and for the glory of his majesty, when he ariseth to shake terribly the earth.

Zeph 1:18 Neither their silver nor their gold shall be able to deliver them in the day of the LORD's wrath; but the whole land shall be devoured by the fire of his jealousy: for he shall make even a speedy riddance of all them that dwell in the land.


Belgian
@ Nickel62 ** J.N. Tlaga
Indeed Sir, This man, Tlaga, goes to the very hart of the matter. An outstanding essay on/with profound fundamentals !
Goldtrail Quality !
Thanks Nickel62 and regards.
nickel62
Thank you Belgian for your kind words..
I agree, the essay is a real eye opener. It is from a posting at the Le Metropole Cafe board, that I wanted to make sure the readers here had access to. Best wishes to you and your family.
sector
@Black Blade...JPM's Derivatives [As well as the other Leading banks]...
http://www.occ.treas.gov/deriv/deriv.htm...can be viewed at the above link. [.pdf Table 8 for IRDs table 9 for gold].

The derivatives chanegs can be calculated by examining the previous reports also at the above link.
Belgian
@ TEDW
One world government or new world order have been, are, and will always be a human goal. This is nothing "new" at all !
But has *Gold* something to do with this manmade old strive
for supremacy ? Not per s� !
But whatever new/old world order...Gold's extreme importance will always pop up in one way or another. Gold is like water and oxygen. Both becoming extremely important (lifesaving) under certain crucial circumstances. And than automatically we are interrogating ourself. How important is Gold today and what will be its importance tomorrow ?
More practical...Is Gold very undervalued today and does it make a chance to change significantly ?
When I'm having a close look at this world as it is...I'm convinced we are getting very close to call for Gold's ultimate help ! Sir J.N. Tlaga does seem to think likely with much conviction. A very strong call and expression for Gold as sublimation and solution of the latent/hidden massive chaos the proliferates.

There MUST be forces who are accumulating as much Physical as possible with the help of abysmal pricing. These forces must have created this situation intentionally. Personally, Im not interested in the precise motivation(s) of these "forces". As a modest individual I'm only concerned about my freedom and independance and don't aim for power.
I found a very loyal and trustworthy friend in the Yellow Precious Physical. And I'm definitely not alone (smile to Grubstaker). Nice end of week to all.
Cavan Man
@Gimli
Human affairs are fainter than a shadow; more deceitful than a dream. Youth fades more quickly than the flow of spring; our beauty wates with age or sickness. Riches are uncertain; glory is fickle. The pursuit of arts and sciences is bounded by this present life; the charm of eloquence, which all covet, reaches but the ear: whereas the practice of virtue is a precious possession for its owner, a delightful spectacle for all who witness it. Make this your study; so will you be worthy of the good things promised by the Lord.

Basil The Great, Letter 278

CM comment: There is absolutely nothing to worry about dear friend.
TownCrier
Conclusion: Yen and dollar to go down TOGETHER
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020210/n10110599_1.html-------NEW YORK, Feb 10 (Reuters) - World financial leaders meeting in Ottawa over the weekend gave foreign exchange markets very little to chew on, indicating merely that they did not want to see volatile markets, analysts said on Sunday.

..."It gets back to the point that there's a very tenuous position in terms of dollar/yen in particular, and that volatility in either direction is not desirable right now," (Andrew Delano, foreign exchange analyst).----------

The Japanese are already buying gold, while many Americans have yet to stir from their slumber. This is your wake-up call.

R.
R Powell
Magazine article
http://insightmag.com/main.cfm/include/detail/storyid/180093.html I found this next door. Is anyone familiar with this magazine? It used to be that I couldn't find much at all about precious metals in mainstream newspapers or magazines. Now I can't find the time to read them all.
I thought Adam Hamilton's weekly offering was outstanding this week.
As Michael says, We're one Enron away. I'll be singing, I'm one Enron over the line, sweet Jesus, one Enron over the line. That one last toke might be JPM, no?
Happy Weekend
Rich
R Powell
Throwing gold into the streets
Using the name of the Lord, Allah, Jesus, Mohammed or God by whatever name, has man justified slaughtering his fellow man, woman and children since the beginnings of recorded history to the present day. Organized religion has undoubtedly caused more grief, despair, suffering and death on this earth than all other causes together.
"Imagine no religion, it's easy if you try,
No hell below us, above us only sky"
--John Lennon--
"If the devil does walk among us, what better disguise than that of a cleric? How better to justify insanity than with eternal absolution and a guaranteed ticket to paradise."
I, for one, will not worry about my gold and silver becoming worthless while I live. After that, I'll have no concerns. Before stoning me, I am not Godless, I just have no respect, whatsoever, for what religion has become with man's influence and guidance. In this I include all organised religion.
Respectfully,
Rich
CoBra(too)
Olympic Gold - For Austria
In the men's downhill.

What a race and it was not the seasons champion Steff Eberharter, who won bronze, it was Fritz 'The Cat' Strobl. What a great piste - all contestants finished the race without incident, even the French guy losing a ski at 140kmh just before the finish line - made it acrobatically.

Small ole Austria is still a super power in winter sports, winning 5 medals so far.

I know I'm chauvinistic, as I am in knowing that gold is going to win the end game. ... and I hope that MK will be able to post Bill Buckler's latest global report to the gilded opinion site. It's another eye-opener and a more than realistic state of the nation, no the globe - Report.

Take heart, goldhearts, our time is coming.

cb2
sourdough
The gangs all here
February 11, 2002
LOS ANGELES
Lehman, Prudential face mortgage fraud charges

Consumer suit alleges they aided First Alliance's 'predatory lending'


LEHMAN Brothers Holdings Inc, Prudential Financial Inc, Wachovia Corp's First Union and other lenders face a predatory lending suit brought by consumers who purchased mortgages from now-defunct First Alliance Corp.

The suit accuses the financial service companies of racketeering, violations of truth-in-lending laws and telemarketing fraud for extending First Alliance lines of credit during the mid-1990s. The consumers seek unspecified actual and punitive damages.

First Alliance's 'predatory lending scheme would not have been possible without the involvement, participation, direction and support of Lehman, Prudential and First Union,' according to the 113-page lawsuit, filed on behalf of five First Alliance borrowers.

The complaint seeks class-action status.

First Alliance, formerly one of the nation's largest lenders to people with spotty credit, faces charges by US regulators and others that it deceived home-equity loan borrowers. First Alliance targeted customers with poor credit histories and failed to give them accurate information about the costs of their loans, the Federal Trade Commission charged in a 2000 lawsuit.

Friday's lawsuit, filed in US District Court in Los Angeles, comes a month after a federal judge found that Lehman is potentially liable in the FTC's 'predatory' mortgage lending case involving bankrupt First Alliance.

Judge David O Carter in Santa Ana, California, last month ruled that 'Lehman's credit facility made First Alliance's fraudulent practices possible'. Trial for consolidated lawsuits brought by the FTC, six states and groups representing numerous borrowers is set for April.

Other defendants include Wells Fargo & Co and JP Morgan Chase & Co's Chase Manhattan. The banks were 'unjustly enriched' as trustees for the First Alliance loans, the suit said.

Irvine, California-based First Alliance in 2000 filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. - Bloomberg

sourdough
Japan
February 11, 2002
Japan set to make policy U-turn on economy

Instead of pursuing structural reforms, it'll fight deflation with new measures

By
Anthony Rowley
In Tokyo

THE Japanese government appears set to make a dramatic U-turn in policy - instead of pursuing structural reforms, it will now fight deflation with every means at its disposal.

One of its first moves may be to inject more than 10 trillion yen (S$137 billion) into the nation's banks and set a September deadline for them to cut support to their weakest borrowers.

The Nihon Keizai newspaper reported yesterday that the size of the injection into banks - which it attributed to a government source - would exceed the 7.5 trillion yen they received in 1999 and help them write off bad loans without eroding capital.


Whether or not the plan is unveiled by the end of this week, as Nihon Keizai predicts, what's clear is the change in policy stance.

This was revealed yesterday by Economics Minister Heizo Takenaka shortly after the Group of Seven (G-7) finance ministers' meeting in Ottawa, at which Japan's economy was a source of critical concern.

The main elements of the new strategy, as outlined yesterday by Mr Takenaka in a Fuji Television programme, will include:

a more aggressive approach to use public funds to reduce the mountain of bad debt at Japanese banks;


further easing of Japan's official monetary policy;


measures to boost the Tokyo stock market from its 18-year low; and


provision of strengthened 'safety nets' to cope with corporate failures and rising unemployment.

'There has been a major change of tide in our policy stance in the last two weeks or so,' said Mr Takenaka, adding there is a 'strong will' on the part of Premier Junichiro Koizumi and his cabinet to tackle economic issues head on.

Tokyo financial markets could open in a changed mood today.

Some analysts believe that the government has been alarmed by recent evidence of a financial market collapse, which has seen the prices of Japanese stocks and bonds, as well as the yen, plunging in unison. This has sent the price of gold soaring in Tokyo.

There was no specific reference to Japan's crisis in the unusually terse weekend communique issued after the G-7 meeting in Ottawa, but US Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill said afterwards that Japan must bend all its efforts toward becoming an engine of growth again.

US President George W Bush is also expected to drive this message home forcefully when he arrives in Japan next Sunday on an official visit to East Asia.

Emergency actions outlined so far by the Japanese government have centred upon the early activation - perhaps this week - of the Banks' Shareholdings Purchasing Corp to buy up shares that are being offloaded into the market by Japanese banks.

They also include controls on short-selling of stocks and tax incentives on purchases of Japanese government bonds.

But the major plank of the action plan is expected to be the new injection of public funds into the Japanese banking system.

Taken together, these measures - in particular the injection of new capital into banks and the launch of the new stock buying fund - could have a dramatic impact upon the Tokyo stock market.

The Nikkei Stock Average closed on Friday at 9,686.06 after recovering modestly on hints of new government actions.

Mr Takenaka's weekend comments are likely to give share prices a further boost today, although many investors will probably want to see specific measures announced before getting back into the market.

Mr Takenaka acknowledged that deflation and the problems of mounting bad debt in the banking system are feeding upon each other.

Mr Takenaka also conceded that Mr Koizumi's structural reform policy was making only slow progress against this background of recession and deflation.

'In the past, there had been people who were questioning why falling prices might be such a bad thing. But it is now a top priority for us,' he said.

Japan's Financial Services Agency (FSA) reported on Friday that non-performing loans at 136 Japanese banks totalled around 36.8 trillion yen at the end of September - up 3.1 trillion yen from the end of March 2001.

Bad loans are currently increasing at a faster rate than banks can make provisions for them.

Apart from having to set aside money out of capital to cover such loans, banks are faced with major financial losses on their share portfolios at the end of the current financial year, which will eat further into capital.


CoBra(too)
Yen/US$ - re TC's Message
The message of the relation between the Yen and the US$ could not have been clearer. Whenever the $ was losing some of its strenght vis a vis other (main)currencies - it was the Yen coming to the rescue and saving the day.

Reminds me of the two amputated sprinters running as a team
and never made it to finish line ...

As it seems it needs a "real" athlete to win the gold ...
cb2



Interstate
R Powell msg #69735
What a powerful message !!! And I agree with you 100%
It took a lot of conviction and hutzpah to write that. Later, Interstate
Black Blade
Gold Starts Week Off Higher
http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metalsAt the open in Sydney, the POG jumps higher by $2.00 out of the gate. There has been more bullish sentiment over the weekend as the situation in Japan has become desperate. The collapse of the financial system and insolvency of Japanese banks has not only lead Japanese toward Gold purchases, but also an increase in Gold purchases throughout Asia. This should continue well past the April 1st (yep, April Fools Day) deadline before the insolvent banks stop insurance coverage for most types of savings accounts.

However, today is yet another holiday in Japan so no TOCOM trades. BTW, it comes to light that the reason that Gold trades were halted on the TOCOM last week was due to the system being "overloaded" with buy orders. It appears that the Gold Bull will likely carry on in Japan when Japanese markets open on Tuesday. The financial situation in Japan is dire. The Yen is falling flat, the banks are insolvent, and equities are grossly overvalued and barely profitable (if at all). "Interesting Times" - though that's a Chinese curse, I think it still applies.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
Gold Reverses
It appears that the POG is now falling. Perhaps as it is easier to push down Gold prices in the Third World especially when the Asian markets (Japan and HK) are closed. Nevertheless, physical demand remains high.

- Black Blade
mikal
Gold story from USAGOLD Live news feed
http://finance.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,3752911%255E1430...The Australian- Gold pops bullion dollar question
by Robin Newby 09feb02
PERHAPS it was the television image of the Japanese housewives buying gold bars from a dealer in Tokyo as a hedge against a falling yen and shaky banks.
Or the announcement by Toronto-based Iamgold that future dividends would be paid in gold rather than Canadian dollars if shareholders wished.
Maybe it was the news sinking in that eight large gold mining operations will close down around the world this year, removing any chance that the industry can ramp up production in the medium term to meet any physical squeeze.
More likely it was all of the above - plus the closing of hedge books and the dark news out of corporate America that has produced a sea change in sentiment among traders and fund managers.
Something is doing it, as gold hit $US305 an ounce in East Asia on Friday...
Most of the gold traders in East Asia will be away from their desks between Monday and Thursday for Chinese New Year. Goode said gold prices would face a test without the support of bullish Asian gold buyers -- because it was that physical demand in Asia which had underpinned much of the rally this week...
EagleOne
schippi #69731
http://screen.morningstar.com/FundResults.htmlAs far as gold mutual funds go, I see that the Fidelity Select Mutual fund (FSAGX) has done quite well with a 23% gain since January 1. But both the XUA Index with a 25.4% gain and the unhedged HUI Amex Goldbugs index with a 35.2% gain since the first of the year have considerably greater gains.

Morningstar's latest ranking shows FSAGX in the middle of the precious metal pack and several fund returing over 30% for the YTD. The average return for all 38 funds was 23.71%, slightly better than FSAGX.

I find your post that "(FSAGX) has out performed the major gold indexes" a little misleading. Would you care to explain?
EagleOne
Morningstar gold fund results
http://screen.morningstar.com/FundSelector.html?hsection=toolcenterFdSelIf this link brings up the search page, go to the second box from the top and select "precious metals". Then scroll to the bottom of the page and click "show results" Lotsa luck.
Black Blade
Kenneth Lay to Invoke 5th Amendment
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/020210/enron_investigation_6.html
Former Enron Chairman Kenneth Lay to Invoke Fifth Amendment at Senate Hearing Tuesday

Snippit:

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Former Enron chairman Kenneth Lay will assert his right against self-incrimination and refuse to answer questions when he appears before Congress under subpoena this week, his spokeswoman said Sunday night. ``Under the instruction of counsel, Mr. Lay will exercise his Fifth Amendment rights at the Tuesday hearing,'' Kelly Kimberly said in Houston.

Black Blade: Who expected anything different? Even when Jeff Skilling testified he kept saying "I don't recall". We could see another Enron break out soon. Much speculation is that Global Crossing will be next as investigators are finding numerous "irregularities". Oh yeah, Arthur Andersen was prominent at Global Crossing. Also, JP Morgan Chase is a prime candidate for a "blow up" as well. Then there are rumors of more bad news from Tyco and now Qualcomm. It seems almost endless. Definitely get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance - theeconomic outlook is "GRIM".
jinx44
R. Powell
Throwing gold into the streets................

You failed to mention Marx, Pol Pot and Hitler. They have slaughtered more than any religious group ever has. What you rail against is sinful human nature, not religion. If you loved God and read His Word, you would see that He has known us from the beginning. You would find the answers you are looking for.
Chris Powell
Latest from GATA's Bill Murphy
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1002Getting ready for GATA's latest expedition to
Washington, and some comments on the
latest in the gold market:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1002

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Siochain
@ R Powell
I can certainly understand your comments when I look around the world today. Awhile ago I came across a comment which has stayed with me.....Religion is not evil --but much evil has been done in the name of religion!!!

There is, I believe a Higher Power, and that each of us have within its' spark ...that we are on a stumbling...bumbling...painful journey of learning ,,,about what is within...and when we do...."organized" religions will perhaps have outlived itself or changed to better serve our journey.

Ghandi said that if we want the world to change,,,we must first be that change!

Supposedly Einstein was once asked what is the most important challenge facing mankind.

He was said to have paused...stared out in space...then said simply....Our biggest challenge is to decide if the Universe is friendly or not!

To paraphrase his explanation:
If we believe it is unfriendly then it becomes survival of the fittest...a dog eat dog world.

If we believe Universe doesn't care...we often giver up feeling there is no purpose or help...despair can reign

But if we believe the Universe is ultimately friendly, then we can join together to unlock the secrets of Universal Power and grow together yet allowing each to go his/her own unique way

And one of my favorite quotes ..."The real act of discovery lies not in finding new lands...but SEEING with NEW EYES!
Siochain
(No Subject)
Sorry forgot to not -Last quote was from Proust
Interstate
Slochain & R Powell
Max Born (wrote extensively about Einstein) said, in 1924, "The first problem of man was to find his way about on the earth."

Is the world friendly or unfriendly? Depends on your religious beliefs, i.e. read chapters 10 and 11 in Zechariah. Friendly? Unfriendly?

Rich: Gold, silver and other valuables are mentioned in the Bible many times. First time, Genesis 2:11-12. And I have always been puzzled why God (a spirit?) would want silver and gold as he says in Haggai 2:8.

Acquiring gold and silver, for me, is insurance against what may be around the corner. But then I think, if gold goes to $1000 oz., the dollar will devalue and a loaf of bread will cost $8-10 a loaf. So, will I have helped myself? I'll keep acquiring anyway !!!!!!

Later,
Interstate
RobotGuy
Golden religion?
Someone else started it, but I think it's bizarre how many have continued the age old debate of 'Greater Significance' in this forum. It could very quickly turn into an argument that would result in flaming, name calling, and if we were in each other's presence possibly a physical confrontation deepending on how strongly one disagrees with another's opinion. I enjoy this forum. Please don't turn it into a religion battleground.
Black Blade
Very Desperate Gold Short JP Morgan Chase Pleads - Begs Poor Indians - "Sell Your Gold"
http://www.arabnews.com/Article.asp?ID=12749
Snippit:

So what does an investor holding a lot of gold do right now? The writing on the wall is quite loud and clear - sell now, sell all that you have! Infact JP Morgan's Nick Moore has gone on record stating that this was the best time to take profits in gold, look for retracement, buy the dips.

Black Blade: The boyz at JP Morgan Chase must be getting a bit nervous to go to India and beg the populace to sell Gold.
sector
Rally Has Legs
Gold rally likely to last for sometime, say analysts
LONDON: Gold's current rally is likely to last for some time yet as it is based on structural changes within the market, according to analysts.

They said the current gains might appear to have been triggered by a cutback on hedging positions by gold producers and by strong demand in Japan, but these were contributing factors at best.

"We expect that this rally may prove to be less of a temporary blip and more of a trend,�� Howard Patten, analyst at Barclays Capital in London said.

He said the upturn in gold prices was likely to stay intact until the structural events which pushed them through the US$300 per ounce barrier had passed.

Patten said that as the pace of industry consolidation took on an increasingly aggressive tone, prices were set to receive boosts of speculative confidence and renewed levels of buying interest.

The recent battle for control of Normandy Mining Ltd might have ended, but the process continued, he said.

Other economists noted a rise in speculative interest.

Geoffrey Barker, economist at HSBC, said speculative interest had indeed played a part in pushing gold prices higher.

Rhona O�Connell, analyst at the World Gold Council, echoed this view.

"Some of the buying has a consistent pattern to it, which suggests that it is of a professional nature, while retail demand in Asia, especially Japan, remains very strong and if anything is accelerating, in addition there are signs of retail interest developing also in Europe," she said.

The market remained very active with aggressive buying emerging whenever the price dipped, she added.

However, the build-up of large long positions also leaves gold open to bouts of profit-taking, according to some dealers.

But O�Connell believes the market still views gold favourably.

"Although this recent move has been very rapid, which has led some commentators, notably technicians, to comment that the current leg is over-extended, underlying market sentiment remains bullish," she said.

According to Patten at Barclays, the reasons for expectations of a sustainable rise in gold prices can be better explained by looking at what the upturn does not constitute.

"It cannot be based on spurious arguments of a panic-stricken "flight to quality." It is not based on erratic short-covering - speculative funds had already amassed a significant net long position, and it is not based on short-term forex related shocks," he said.

He noted that the dollar was very firm against both the yen and the euro. The South African rand and Australian dollar were by contrast weak against the dollar, making company profits in these currencies soared, he said.

Standard Bank analyst Robin Bhar also believes that the gold's rise is sustainable as it is based on "fundamental developments."

He said gold had reached a new trading range. "Before, we were looking at US$260-US$280 per ounce, now there is a new floor and the range in the US$280-US$300 per ounce range."

Against this backdrop, the re- duced hedging policy from producers also boosted prices. Anglo American PLC unit Anglogold Ltd's decision to scale back its hedge book by 6 million ounces earlier in the week is a case in point.

There are other factors helping gold higher. GNI analyst Lawrence Eagles said heavy Japanese safe-haven buying was seen again overnight despite the rebound in the Nikkei index. � AFX
++++++++++++++++++++++++

If the cabal can't drop the price of gold this week it will signify a major weakness as the Asians are on holiday until Friday.

Black Blade
Gold rally likely to last for sometime, say analysts
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2002/2/11/business/gold09&sec=business
Snippit:

LONDON: Gold's current rally is likely to last for some time yet as it is based on structural changes within the market, according to analysts. They said the current gains might appear to have been triggered by a cutback on hedging positions by gold producers and by strong demand in Japan, but these were contributing factors at best. "We expect that this rally may prove to be less of a temporary blip and more of a trend,'' Howard Patten, analyst at Barclays Capital in London said.

He said the upturn in gold prices was likely to stay intact until the structural events which pushed them through the US$300 per ounce barrier had passed. Patten said that as the pace of industry consolidation took on an increasingly aggressive tone, prices were set to receive boosts of speculative confidence and renewed levels of buying interest. The recent battle for control of Normandy Mining Ltd might have ended, but the process continued, he said.

Rhona O'Connell, analyst at the World Gold Council, echoed this view. "Some of the buying has a consistent pattern to it, which suggests that it is of a professional nature, while retail demand in Asia, especially Japan, remains very strong and if anything is accelerating, in addition there are signs of retail interest developing also in Europe," she said. The market remained very active with aggressive buying emerging whenever the price dipped, she added.

Black Blade: On the other side of the coin is that there are now fundamental changes in the World's economies that make Gold investment desirable as a contra-cyclical hedge. Systemic failures of the World's banking structure are evident everywhere from horrific bad loan losses in Japan to extreme derivative exposure in the US. This does not even account for one major financial scandal after another almost on a daily basis. The case for Gold ownership looks very strong.
Black Blade
Has Gold Regained Its Long-Term Luster?
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/feb2002/pi20020211_3463.htm
It took a beating in the '90s, but a host of uncertainties has sent prices soaring as anxious investors seek refuge in the precious metal

Snippit:

A PREMIUM ON SAFETY.

Add to this the increasing nervousness about the health of world economies and banking systems, and nervous investors could once again pile into the perceived safety of gold. The list of concerns that could drive gold's price even higher is daunting. Corporate defaults reached record levels in 2001, and, despite signs of an economic recovery, are on pace to break that mark in 2002. Argentina defaulted on its sovereign debt and its banking system has plunged into chaos. Japan is in the grip of deflation, and its banking system is coming under increasing pressure. (Indeed, recent press reports indicate that worried Japanese investors have been buying gold bars.) The latest worry: the viral spread of accounting irregularities among previously high-growth energy and telecommunications companies.

Black Blade: Ditto!
White Hills
Sourdough
Very interesting post concerning First Alliance.I think that the coming Real Estate "CRASH" will make the S&L scandal look penny anti. Without a doubt there are quite a few " Alliances" out there. It has been my experience where there is opportunity to steal and commit fraud they are doing it. When you have lenders of last and first resort just waiting to buy your paper with very few questions asked(The Fed and GSE) and monitize the debt to keep the whole system liquid it is perfect enviroment for fraud You would think that some enterprizing reporters would start digging instead of waiting for the scandal to fall into their laps such as happened with Enron. White Hills
Black Blade
Banking fears trigger gold rush in Japan
http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/money/story/0,1870,102229,00.html?
Snippit:

TOKYO - Japan is experiencing a gold rush as fears that the banking sector may collapse are driving ordinary Japanese to invest their savings in bullion, experts say. Sales at Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo, one of Japan's largest gold firms, have doubled since July last year, said company spokesman Osamu Ikeda.

There were 10 times more visitors than usual in the days immediately after the Sept 11 attacks, with one couple loading 30 kg to 40 kg of gold into their car, he said. Intense media coverage of Japan's deepening recession and rumours over a banking collapse have sent people exchanging hard cash for gold.

Black Blade: And the situation in Japan is not likely to get any better. Now the Japanese Government plans to fire up the printing presses and purchase shares of companies to prop up the Nikkei in their own version of the PPT. "Interesting Times"
Black Blade
Gold steals spotlight from state of the nation address as investors think global
http://www.busrep.co.za/html/busrep/br_frame_decider.php?click_id=345&art_id=ct20020210175511638J000334&set_id=60
Snippit:

Johannesburg - President Thabo Mbeki's state of the nation address was treated as a "non-event" on the local stock market on Friday, with investors opting to focus on gold as a buffer against more bad news expected from the US and the global economy. The financial index also lent a helping hand, as bank shares continued to recover on interpretations that earlier low levels represented an overreaction by investors who feared more profit warnings.

Black Blade: The prez upstaged by Gold.
tedw
Benton Mine

Snippit (paraphrase)

Benton Mine in Josephine County Oregon is a century old mine. During 1935-1945 the Benton mine supported 60 miners.
There are currently no operating mines at all in Oregon. The mine, about 30 miles north of Grants Pass, was shut down in 1942 by the Federal Government because it was not contributing to the war effort.

Dutch Mining, backed by the Rendata Corporation, has spent 4 million since 1993 expanding and sampling the original tunnels of the Benton Mine.

Elton Youngberg, now 88, was mine Superintendent when the mine was closed in 1942. Youngberg thinks the mine has big potential. "The grade is better than when we operated""It should do well. The vein to the south is wider than than when we were mining."

Dutch Mining is waiting for the price to climb ABOVE $300 before it begins full fledged mining, hopefully this year.

**************************************************
$300+ and old mines become economically feasible to operate.
Look for big profits in the mining sector.


Mr Gresham
RECORD 75 MILLION AMERICANS NOW PRETENDING THEY OWN THEIR OWN HOMES
http://www.satirewire.com/news/0106/dream.shtml"Minneapolis, Minn. (SatireWire.com) � Showing no ill effects from a weak economy, housing numbers released by the National Association of Realtors today showed that a record 75 million Americans are now participating in the mass self-delusion that they, and not their banks, actually own their homes. ..."

Belgian
Euroland - eurogold
I've seen the first Gold bullion with *eurogold* stamped on it ! Evidence for the concept ???
Waverider
Peso jitters grip Argentina
http://globeinvestor.com/servlet/WireFeedRedirect/RT/C/20020210/warge02101?cf=GlobeInvestor/config&vg=BigAdVariableGenerator&slug=warge02101&date=20020210&archive=rtgamSnippit:
"Argentina's month-old government said Sunday it would fight to keep the peso currency from plummeting when it is fully floated on markets this week, but people on the street nervously prepared for a new bout of financial chaos.

With the recently devalued peso set to trade freely on Monday after a week-long ban on foreign exchange trade ends, many Argentines stocked up on groceries and canceled normal weekend dinner plans out of fear spiraling inflation could be just around the corner.

"I'm buying double the amount of groceries as usual because I'm afraid next time I go shopping the prices will be much higher," Ricardo, a retired architect said as he perused half-empty shelves at a supermarket over the weekend.

Many analysts believe the peso, which has already lost half its value against the U.S. dollar since January, could tumble out of control, deepen a devastating four-year recession and possibly spark a new round of street protests."
schippi
Select Gold Vs Major Gold Indexes Chart
http:\\www.SelectSectors.com\goldindx.gif

EagleOne (2/10/02; 18:25:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 69745)
schippi #69731

I find your post that "(FSAGX) has out performed the major gold indexes"
a little misleading. Would you care to explain?

EagleOne, her is the Chart:

I suspect that the difficulty comes from comparing
different time intervals, rather than FSAGX performance.
This has to be the best of times when Gold conversation
Is about outperforming the Equity markets.

Black Blade
"Interesting" Debate on FOX

There is a weekly investment program on FOX news hosted by former CNBC info babe Terry Keenan. This week the panel's regulars Jonathan Hoenig of the Capitalist Pig, Dagan McDowell of FOX, Hilary (whatever), and Brian Finerty got into a brief discussion about Gold. Jonathan is the only Gold Bull in the group who emphasized the performance of Gold and his Gold stock pick (BVN), and of course there was the usual spittle ejected from the rest of the panel (dim bulbs). Comments from the Wall Street pimps ranged from Gold is a commodity no different that soy beans and pork bellies to "but there's no inflation" and "Gold only goes up when there's uncertainty in the World's markets". Of course Jonathan had the winning portfolio pick. Looks like Gold will climb much higher as Gold is still below the radar for Americans - but once discovered - look out! Hmmm�

- Black Blade
Waverider
Defenceless Japan awaits typhoon
http://www.guardian.co.uk/japan/story/0,7369,648390,00.htmlSnippit:
"There was bemusement in the financial markets last week when the price of gold went surging through $300 (�205) an ounce. Gold is supposed to be a hedge against inflation and a haven in times of war, but here it was going up at a time when America has sorted out its little local difficulty in Afghanistan and the real threat is not of rising but falling prices. It did not take long, however, for the markets to come up with a one-word explanation: Japan. The buying spree for gold was concentrated in the far east, with a rush by Japanese investors to find an asset that looks safer than shares in Japanese companies or Japanese bonds. Almost any asset looks safer at present than Japanese assets, and the flight into gold is entirely rational. Japan faces political and economic meltdown, and we are talking premier league stuff here. Argentina was only the third-biggest economy in Latin America; Japan is the second biggest economy in the world."
Black Blade
London Opens and Gold Drops
http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
The POG is down -$1.70 at the open in London after wavering about in OZ and finishing unchanged. No real news to trade on so I suspect that there will be an effort to slam Gold while Asian markets are temporarily closed.

BTW, it appears that former Enron CEO Jeff Skilling may be facing perjury charges for his testimony before congress. I don't know the details yet. However, former Enron CEO Ken Lay will appear before congress on Tuesday. With Skilling facing possible charges, I would say that it is a lock that Lay will plead the fifth.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
Gold bull on its way
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=26359
Snippit:

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal highlighted one of these important indicators. The article outlined how lower interest rates and the price of gold actually have a "cause and effect" relationship. It told of the seven Fed rate cuts between December of 1974 and November of 1976 and the subsequent 405 percent jump in the price of gold from 1976 to December of 1979.

The next seven rate cuts occurred between 1984-1986, and gold nearly doubled. The Fed again cut rates five times from 1990-1992, and gold jumped from $317 to $427. That's a whopping 34 percent increase in just six months.

Now, since the beginning of 2001, there have been an unprecedented 11 rate cuts. The conclusion the article draws is logical: "If history is any indicator, gold is set to rally in a big way."


Black Blade: Sounds good. Interesting article.
Black Blade
Business & Media: Treasury blows pounds 350m in great gold sale gamble
http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?story_id=27645059&ID=cnniw≻ategory=Metals+%26+Minerals%3APrecious&

Snippit:

THE SURGE in the price of gold could leave the Treasury's two year sell-off of its reserves, which ends next month, nursing a loss of hundreds of millions of pounds. The sell-off caused a storm of public protest when it began in 1999.

Black Blade: I'm sure that most everyone here can say "I told you so".

BTW, the World Gold Council is compiling a report on the effects of the UK auctions. An existing WGC analysis shows that gold makes up just 7.4 per cent of British foreign exchange reserves. In the US it is 55.6 per cent, in France 45.8 per cent, and Germany 36.8 per cent.
barnacle bill
tedw msg#69761
About ten years ago I bought a Canadian junior mining company with ground in Oregon. The Greenies had a slogan back then: "Mine free by '93". That company today is a shell-shocked skeleton of it's former self, but it still has a pulse, and it still has the ground in Oregon. There is a lot of gold in Oregon, but most people are unaware of that fact.
And�ril
"Gold is a commodity no different that soy beans and pork bellies"
Mr. Blade and others

Do not utter these words as though the information is somehow offered in poor taste or disingenuous. It is not!

Many a man has met miserable death, famished for lack of commodities "soy beans and pork bellies". Though it was surely not your intent, you mock their plight in your rash and unqualified judgements of value from your easy seat at a lavish table. Value is where you find it, when you need it; be it gold one day, beans the next, or water in the desert.

Gold has good and vital company with beans and bellies. Do not think it or wish it elsewise, and be prepared to justify your point if you do!
Gold Standard
The evil JPM....
I'm just having a bit of trouble working out the machinations of JPM flinging its gold derivative problems to Enron, which can then happily go down the gurgler. Problem solved!

If we look at the gold carry trade, no doubt practised to the fullest extent by JPM and Enron, they "lease" gold from a Central Bank for a set period of time.

At the end of that time, they either have to repay physical gold, (or monetary equivalent), or roll-over the facility.

Surely, JPM (or, indeed, any entity which "leases" gold) cannot say to the lender "Guess what - I'm not going to pay you back! I've been really clever, and I've transferred my liability to a virtually bankrupt third party - go and chase them for your gold, and don't hassle me!"

There is no way known, in any commercial transaction, that a "debtor" party could unilaterally transfer a liability to a bankrupt third party, without the express consent of the creditor.

Does anyone have any thoughts on this?
uponroof
Wisdom a Commodity?
That little blurb in the London Observer, regarding lost revenue on the BoE balance sheet (as a result of their gold sales) must've really made an impact on those responsible.

Obviously the folks at the BoE DO NOT want this, so far little story, to get legs and turn into a front page expose.

Currently with every $5US dollar drop in the POG, Eddie George and clan get $60,300,000 wiser. This morning they are getting smarter by the minute.

Which opens the debate to the ability to 'purchase wisdom'...which technically speaking should be correctly stated 'the ability to sell wisdom'(since in this case, gold sales improve wisdom)....Which begs the debate as to whether or not wisdom is a commodity...which at the heart of this debate being the irresponsible treatment of gold, would seem to make perfect sense to me....'wisdom' in this case, is a commodity BUT it is calculated in US dollars....not gold, which speaks volumes of the caliber of wisdom involved.

Watching the London close today for a bull raid...we'll see.
uponroof
@gold standard
I believe 'borrowed' CB gold must be repayed in kind...gold only, no monetary substitutions. Given the gold belongs to the people of that country NOT Central Bankers, it's only fair. Ahhh, but this creates the problem as 'money' is so easily printed, gold not. The 'rollover' you describe is, and has been, the option of choice, for these IOU (debt) peddlers. Hence the enormous short position and intensely ongoing search for available, unencumbered gold....soon to come to a safe deposit box near you?
TownCrier
Latest commentary, "Parallel Times", by Jim Puplava now available at USAGOLD
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/puplava/20020208.htmlThis week, Jim Puplava writes:

--------This Storm Watch Update does not attempt to debate the complete merits of the [president's economic stimulus] plan. However, it should be recognized that we now stand at the edge of a precipice. What we do today will determine whether we sink into the abyss or begin the long, long road towards recovery. This will not be an ordinary recession or bear market.

The world and especially the U.S. could be heading towards the most serious economic crisis of the new century and the largest economic crisis since 1930. If we do nothing, that crisis will unfold in a way we will least be able to direct. In his book The Crash and Its Aftermath, Barrie Wigmore, a one time partner at Goldman Sachs, argued that Roosevelt's speeches during 1932 and his refusal to guarantee the gold standard encouraged the public's hoarding of money and brought on the banking crisis of early 1933.

Wigmore argues that Roosevelt "as much as anyone, raised the Crash to its symbolic position as the cause of the Depression." Roosevelt used the crisis as political capital to justify the policies of his new administration.

It is with this idea in mind, that I view with suspicion Mr. Daschle's plans for holding up judicial appointments and over 50 bills in the Senate on energy, defense, and the economy. The Democratic leader of the Senate has invoked a rule that does not allow bills to the floor of the Senate unless there are 60 votes in favor of its passage. This parliamentary rule has kept the more conservative members of his party from working with Republicans and the President to get legislation passed. Can it be that Mr. Daschle's political ambitions for his party come before the needs of his country? This may be cynicism on my part, but it is a question worth asking.-------

(click link for full commentary)
RobotGuy
Someone's selling
So much for the 300$ floor. It'll be back.
Knallgold
GoldStandard
"There is no way known, in any commercial transaction, that a "debtor" party could unilaterally transfer a liability to a bankrupt third party, without the express consent of the creditor."

Maybe you answered your question in the last words?
It is only paper anyway...and can be defaulted on.If both parties agree on this,what can be done?The Gold is still physically in the vault of the CB,no? So who will holding the bag? Answer: (you got it!)
uponroof
CNBC
Did a nice hit job on gold this morning in typical round table style...passing the bludgeoning from one to another.

The icing came when Mark reported that one of the big houses has downgraded NEM to a sell for unspecified "problems within the company".

Now if NEM is smart they will buy back hedges today with a vengence. As crazy as it sounds, this market is thin enough that NEM can beat opposing market makers.

The war is on and this Chinese New Year is just what the doctor ordered for the foes of gold.
**********

I'll leave you with this little reminder:

"...Meanwhile, in the midst of this crystal-ball approach to predicting what equities will or won't do this year, some historic and genuinely authentic indicators for gold and silver are already here ? in plain sight, for anybody to see.

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal highlighted one of these important indicators. The article outlined how lower interest rates and the price of gold actually have a "cause and effect" relationship.

It told of the seven Fed rate cuts between December of 1974 and November of 1976 and the subsequent 405 percent jump in the price of gold from 1976 to December of 1979.

The next seven rate cuts occurred between 1984-1986, and gold nearly doubled.

The Fed again cut rates five times from 1990-1992, and gold jumped from $317 to $427.

That's a whopping 34 percent increase in just six months.

Now, since the beginning of 2001, there have been an unprecedented 11 rate cuts. The conclusion the article draws is logical:

"If history is any indicator, gold is set to rally in a big way..."
********

hang on folks
TownCrier
International editor Holger Jensen reporting on international peace demontrators on location in the West Bank
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Jensen/20020208.htmlComplete with photos -- Jensen writes:

------RAMALLA, West Bank -- His name is Daniel, he's 19 years old and he wants to be a chef. "I like to cook," he confides. Instead he's manning a machine gun atop an Israeli armored personnel carrier parked outside Yasser Arafat's headquarters. "I don't want to be here," he says, "but our presence prevents terrorism."

Some would say it causes more terrorism, I reply. Palestinians bitterly resent the presence of Israeli soldiers in Ramallah, the capital of their would-be state, and vow to resist until Israel ends its 35-year-old occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

"I live in Gilo," says Daniel. "The Arabs shoot at Gilo from Beit Jala all the time. So I have to fight for my country."

The reason Gilo comes under fire is that, to Palestinians, it represents a theft of their land. It is one of 10 Jewish neighborhoods that sprang up on the outskirts of East Jerusalem after Israel captured the Arab sector of the Holy City in 1967.

All this happened long before Daniel was born. His mother came from Canada, his father from Brooklyn and now they live in Gilo. Their son went straight from high school into the army to "protect them from terrorists" and he does so willingly and proudly.

What does Daniel think of the growing number of Israeli soldiers who refuse to serve in the occupied territories because they think the occupation is unjust and actually makes Israel less secure?

"It's easy not to serve," he says, smiling. "All you do is go to jail for a month and then they let you out. But my father fought for this country and I have to do my share. I've finished one year and have two to go. After that I'll get on with my life."

An officer yells out the window of an apartment building whose Palestinian residents have been evicted to accommodate the Israeli troops. "My commander says you must go," says Daniel with a grin.

As we walk away, the unseen officer is still yelling, still chewing him out for talking to journalists. But Daniel waves a cheerful goodbye.

Not far away, a small group of "internationals" has gathered to protest the occupation. A Japanese monk beats a drum as other volunteers from the United States, Britain, Ireland, Canada, Italy and Israel set off hand-in-hand with Palestinian children to deliver messages of peace to the soldiers. With flags of the various nations raised overhead, the marchers carry signs and the children paper airplanes saying: "Soldiers think! Don't serve a brutal occupation that expels, starves, humiliates and dominates an entire people."

...As this is being written, 22 Israeli peace groups are organizing buses to bring demonstrators from all over the country to a Saturday rally in Tel Aviv. "The occupation is killing us all," says their flier. "The Sharon government is perpetrating terrible acts over which the black flag of illegality flies. Continued occupation is drowning us in rivers of blood, Israelis and Palestinians alike. Continued occupation leads to loss of hope, to despair on both sides."--------

Jensen concludes, "There is no shortage of peace groups on either side. There are so many of them, in fact, one wonders why there is no peace."

(click link for full commentary)

Be sure to see Jensen's index for related stories from various angles.

This issue is sure to gain significance in light of the following two summaries:

1) AP HEADLINE: France unveils Mideast peace plan calling for Palestinian elections, state

CACERES, Spain (Associated Press) - France on Saturday proposed a plan to bring about peace in the Middle East which calls for Palestinian elections and the creation of a Palestinian state that would be "immediately" recognized by Israel and admitted to the United Nations.---

---VS---

2) Reuters HEADLINE: U.S. Opposes French Idea of Palestinian Elections

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States opposes a French and European proposal for elections in the Palestinian territories to give the winner a mandate to talk peace, a State Department official said on Friday. The official, who asked not to be named, said Washington believed the emphasis should remain on persuading Palestinian President Yasser Arafat to crack down on militant Palestinian organizations that attack Israelis.---

On the international scene, might any given currency bloc be supported (or not) based on its political positions? How difficult is it to imagine the major oil producers moving toward euros for settlement?

As always, the determination of value of your paper/digital money is in the hands of others. Rebalance your portfolio accounts to favor holdings of REAL wealth. Gold is a good start.

R.
Siochain
Gold downgrades
Yup..they took advantage of Japan close and London piled it on now US downgrades

Note from my morning market letter:

"Here is something interesting to ponder. A ton of analysts are coming ut downgrading the gold miners today, especially NEM. Why would that be? Is it because they are so good at calling stocks or is it something different? We suggest that a lot of the institutions have big players who are short gold and the miners. With gold's run up lately, they had better do something to get the prices back down. Just a thought."

Think his thought is right...you bet!!




Leigh
Poetry Awards - No Poem Left Behind
The weekend is through and, alas, so is the USAGOLD Poetry Contest. There were seven original entries. Thank you, Au-some, goldenboy, Matt, Pizz, Waverider, and Hoosier Goldbug. In an effort to ensure that No Poem Be Left Behind, EVERY poem has won a prize!

Here are the judges' findings:

Hoosier Goldbug (MY POEM! - 69647) - Most idealistic. Thank you for being the first to submit a poem.

Leigh (Waiting for Springtime - 69652) - Most shameless plea for Trail Guide's return.

Waverider (Ode to TG - 69669) - Most artistic plea for financial advice. Just kidding, Waverider! Thank you for taking the time and thought to put this together.

Pizz (My Contribution to the FOA Recall - 69688) - Most succinct and complete retelling of the Trail Guide story and most straightforward call to action.

Matt (Hear Ye! - 69692) - Best practice for Valentine's Day. Don't let your wife know that you wrote a "Roses are red, violets are blue" poem to a guy you never met!

goldenboy (Poem Contest - 69695) - Ditto! Most points for brevity and clarity of message.

Au-some (No Subject - 69721) - Most lyrical.

As you may recall, the purpose of our contest was to lure Trail Guide back into the fold. We therefore send these seven Valentine's Day Week poems out into cyberspace and hope that they will accomplish their mission.

Thanks again, everyone!!!!
Spartacus
Ron Paul on recession
http://www.house.gov/paul/congrec/congrec2002/cr020702.htm
Congressman Ron Paul
U.S. House of Representatives
February 7, 2002

Economic Concerns
uponroof
Hedger buybacks, campfires and the Japanese
Thinking this through a bit...

NEM (for that matter all miners seeking to unhedge) are I'm sure thankfull for the pullback....cheaper gold.

The foes of gold must realize that their intended ride back to 282 will not be a non stop excursion. At some point those miners looking to cover are going give in to temptation, buy large, and reverse this decline....free market exchange of sorts....(under the always present close supervision of those protecting the worlds best interests, of course-sic).

The more important underlying tone of this action today is the never ending question, which is nurtured in the minds of the bulls, for all it's worth by the cartel....

Are the big sellers (FED) still playing 1998 style POG hardball with the threat of the lawsuit, Enron-JPMC connections, etc in this new market climate begging to be untied?

Or is it more of the 'starting of campfires' which the cartel utilizes to insinuate great numbers against gold. These campfires designed to discourage the approaching army, when in reality those entrenched, cannot in fact defend their ground.

Will the approaching army turn around, at the sight of the fires, as it has done so many times before?

Miners....the time to buy is at hand!

Don't wait for the Japanese to come back into the market...who btw will think someone left them a Chinese New Years present with POG now 5+ bucks cheaper. They will buy up spot just as they have before, and you (miners) will be paying a premium for your gold.
********

Watch the London close.

Cheers
goldenboy
Uponroof: Analysts` Smashing Stocks
I am not surprised they would take a run at the best company with the best upside to gold. Only because they will be loading up on any price decline so they can then pump when the time comes. They probably have accumulate orders from the bullion shorts who can then pull the trigger on the next up rally at the end of the week when Asia comes back in from holiday. FN guys smart enough to figure thiis out and will not buy til Wed. Thurs. when i might finally pick up some Drooy hopeully at a bargain rate.
Carl H
JP Morgan Gold Give-Away Sale
Looks like the great JP Morgan Gold Give-Away Sale was in full swing this morning...don't miss out!
Black Blade
Gold Falls on Expectations of Reduced Demand From Jewelers
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht∣dle=ad_frame2_all&s=APGf1WhT7R29sZCBG
Snippit:

New York, Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Gold fell, retreating from a two-year high, on expectations that a 6 percent surge in prices last week will curb demand from jewelers.

Black Blade: Yeah, so if the POG goes up, jewelers will use iron or tin right? I don't think so.
Black Blade
GOLDMAN 'SACKS'
http://www.nypost.com/business/41157.htm
Snippit:

February 11, 2002 -- Just when investment bankers thought they were safe, Wall Street is once again preparing to swing the ax. Goldman Sachs Group is the latest firm expected to hand out pink slips as the slowdown in mergers and stock underwriting activity continues to take a bite out of profits.

According to people familiar with the situation, Goldman officials are drawing up plans for a big round of job cuts within its investment banking division beginning in the next several weeks.

Although it is unclear exactly how deep the cuts will be, these people say that they will be targeted mainly at the firm's senior-level bankers, who can't produce enough revenues in the current market environment to justify their eye-popping pay packages.


Black Blade: A lot of Banker "Bones" off to the growing "Bone Pile". Many one of those laid off senior bankers will spill their guts about some "questionable" business practices.

BTW, interesting that a downgrade of NEM from Prudential's boiler rooms supposedly affects the Gold market. I seem to recall that Prudential was involved in a criminal fraud involving "churning" insurance accounts that savaged the life savings of thousands of elderly Americans. So much for the "rock". Also notice that NEM gets downgraded and ABX fall furthest. Hmmm�
Black Blade
Going For Broke
http://www.fortune.com/articles/206351.html
Crash! There goes another company into bankruptcy.

Snippit:

Thus far, 2002 has produced no shortage of unusual spectacles: Chelsea Clinton's glam Versace makeover, models and economists mingling at the World Economic Forum in New York City, and Virgin Records paying Mariah Carey $28 million not to sing, to name a few. Alas, those topics are the province of other magazines. Luckily, the business world has proved scandal-rich as well; 2002 is rapidly becoming the year of the epic bankruptcy.

Three big blowups in as many weeks--Kmart, Global Crossing, and Enron (okay, this one technically took place in the last weeks of 2001, but you get the point)--rank among the largest U.S. corporate bankruptcies in history (see below). Banks are cracking down on cash-starved firms, companies are struggling to pay debt issued three years ago, and wary investors have a bad case of Enronitis. That puts teetering sectors like telecom, retail, and steel in peril. And the trend is building: Last year 257 publicly traded companies filed for Chapter 11, up from 176 companies in 2000. "We may be coming close to a peak in the bankruptcy cycle," says Henry Miller, a vice chairman for global restructuring at investment bank Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, "but we're not there yet." In fact in late January, McLeod USA (an emerging telecom) filed for Chapter 11 protection.

Why the bankruptcy boom now? A confluence of factors managed to make an iffy economy a breeding ground for Chapter 11 filings. The first culprit is a late-'90s binge that is turning into a wicked hangover. Back then banks and brokerage firms couldn't throw loans at startups or issue high-yield debt fast enough. In 1998 alone, Wall Street issued more than $141 billion of junk bonds, causing that market to jump to around $600 billion in 2001--more than three times its size a decade earlier. Investors lapped up the deals: After all, debt defaults--in which firms are unable to make principal or interest payments--had dipped as low as 1.6% in 1996, from 1991's record10%. "Investors figured [junk] was a pretty good place to put their money," says Martin Fridson, a chief high-yield strategist at Merrill Lynch.


Black Blade: We should see another Enron pop loose soon. Today top Global Crossing executives were issued subpoenas. It appears that Global Crossing (and even Quest Communications) were engaged in massive fraudulent accounting practices. Today the pundits have no reason to explain the rally on Wall Street. They have given it the name of the "No News Rally". Trading was said to be relatively light. Tomorrow Ken Lay goes before Congress and will likely plead the fifth.
sourdough
Japanese holiday
Gold goes down because the Japanese are not buying.
Does that relate to the Dow going up because the Japanese are not selling?
Gold must go into the Japanese hands. That is where it will do the most good for the world. The Japanese government may reach a point where they must ensure the gold price doesn`t crash. Soon the public cannot bear a bear in gold.
RobotGuy
SourDough
I've heard estimates that the Japanese will be out to buy gold perhaps even up until May, would this be a saturation point? Everyone obviously want's to make their own personal guarantee over and above the $75,000 government guaranteed limit. It has been stated that the Japanese have an average household savings of $115,000 or thereabouts, I'm just going off the top of my head. I think it is very good for gold that it decreases in value at this moment, so the Japanese have an opportunity to scoop up more 'glimmer' for their buck. This will obviously create a great physical demand in North America when the majority of us discover that we should be buying physical for insurance purposes. I wonder how many Japanese will leave the guaranteed $75,000 in the bank once they admire their physical for awhile?
uponroof
A bit of Cheer for my Canadian friends...
POG consolidated today. I am hearing it closed above 300 in NY at 300.10. Really not all that bad considering they had the weekend to plan and capitalize on the HK markets.

Thought some of my good buddies from the great white north would enjoy this bit of 'news' (ya gotta love Rumsfeld)...

CANADIAN WARSHIP SEIZES TANKER IN... WAIT...
CANADA HAS A WARSHIP?

Canadian television reported Friday that a Canadian warship in the Arabian Sea had seized a tanker suspected of smuggling oil from Iraq leading many to suspect that the report was a complete hoax.

"You're kidding, right? Canada has a warship?" asked U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. "Like for war?

"Does Canada know?" he added.

"Nobody was more stunned than we were," said Kali Omari, first mate of the seized vessel. "We saw this frigate steaming toward us, and we were worried, but then we saw the maple leaf on the flag, and we thought, 'Oh, Canadians. What the #### do they want?'"

When an officer of the HMCS Vancouver announced that the tanker was about to be boarded, the crew of the detained ship was confused, said Omari, but their confusion quickly turned to anger when they saw what the Canadians sailors were carrying.

"They were armed. With guns," said Omari. "Canadians!! With guns!!! And a warship!!!! What the #### is this world coming to?"

"They were pretty rude too," Omari added. "They started asking us all sorts of questions like, 'Where did that oil come from?' But the only thing we wanted to know was who gave them the damn warship."

According to Canadian defense officials, the Vancouver is one of four frigates deployed in the region to assist in the U.S.-led Afghanistan conflict. The tanker was stopped, officials said, because its cargo of crude oil violated United Nations sanctions which prohibit Iraq from selling oil unless in exchange for food and medicine.

The U.N. said the incident is already under investigation and promised swift action against those found responsible for giving the Canadians guns (much less a warship). Initial findings indicate that the Vancouver crew may have been watching too many American reality based television shows.
********

I feel so much better knowing Canada is to my north...nothing to worry about from that direction.

hee hee ;*
sourdough
Robot
hi Robot.
You seen those commercials where they appeal to old people.
Borrow on your house, take a trip, entertain, help out the kids. "You don`t have to pay it back until you sell the house".
Japanese has an aging population. They have worries about retirement. Why can`t the government get them to buy gold, then let that gold get repriced upwards. Your 10 -20 thousand becomes 20-40-60 thousand.
They want to spend, take a trip, entertain, help out the kids, just like in Canada.
All the government has to do is form a bank that will accept and loan on gold collateral. If you want a trip ,a car, whatever, in you come with your 1 kg bars. 1,2,3, whatever. You give it to the bank, they give you money, you "don`t have to pay it back until you die ).
If you choose not to pay it back, the government gets it.
This way the gold is never sold.(government ends up with it), but you have the windfall to spend, without selling your gold. The government has stimulated the "domestic economy. Any money printed to loan is backed by lean on gold assets.
Everybody wins, people have their gold, get to enjoy their retirement, can benefit from any increase in gold price (minus) minimum interest charges. When there dead there dead. kids can pay of the loan from the estate and get back the gold, or let it go.
Meanwhile, they economy starts to see demand from consumers who have money to enjoy life again.
(some stocks must be doing okay in Japan. Somebody is smelting these 1 kg. bars. funny there is no mention of shortage.Must have been ready .(smile)
sourdough
uponroof (02/11/02; 14:50:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 69792)
That`s a good one, gave me a good laugh. Maybe they weren`t loaded.
(P.S.) SAFE EH,wanna buy some whitewash?
Thought I saw some charcoal showing through on the Whitehouse the other day while watching a news report. (heh,heh,heh)
uponroof
Next we'll discover..........
they have a hockey team?

Hope it's before the olympics are over....and they bring home the gold.

;-)

Black Blade
SEC Subpoenas Qwest on Global Crossing
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020211/business_telecoms_qwest_globalcrossing_d_2.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Telecommunications company Qwest Communications (NYSE:Q) said on Monday the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission has subpoenaed it for documents relating to bankrupt phone company Global Crossing , sending its shares falling.

Qwest's shares fell as much as 3.96 percent in morning trading but pared some of those losses to trade down 1 percent, or 13 cents at $9.47 in afternoon trade on the New York Stock Exchange. Heavy trading volume meant Qwest's stock briefly replaced Tyco International Ltd. (NYSE:TYC - news) as the most active issue. Until then, Tyco had topped the most-active list for 10 days amid questions surrounding its accounting methods, debt ratings and restructuring plans.


Black Blade: Enronitis is spreading. This time it is bogus profits that never existed. Both Qwest and Global Crossing booked "swaps". That it they would sell capacity and book the sales as revenue while at the same time buy an equal amount capacity from each other and keep the purchase sorta "off the books". Note that Arthur Andersen was prominent at Global Crossing. I expect that there are dozens of corporations with Enronitis out there.


OH oh! News is coming out about "problems" with Nortel stock. After hours trading has been halted.
Black Blade
Goldcorp offers two-for-one stock split
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020211/n11323412_1.html
Snippit:

TORONTO, Feb 11 (Reuters) - Canadian gold miner Goldcorp Inc. (Toronto:G.TO) said on Monday it planned a two-for-one stock split to enhance its liquidity and exposure.

Black Blade: I haven't seen a stock split on Gold shares for quite a long time.
Black Blade
Argentines Flood Exchange Houses
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/020211/argentina_economy_5.html
Peso Holds Its Own, but Argentines Seek Economic Refuge in Dollars

Snippit:

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP) -- The peso held its own against the dollar, but Argentines flooded exchange houses nonetheless on Monday after the government freely floated the local currency for the first time in 11 years.

Argentines, anxious to unload their devalued pesos, waited in lines that stretched for blocks as the peso dropped as low as 2.5 to the dollar in early trading. The currency later rebounded, trading around the 2 peso-per-dollar mark it had been at for much of last week.

``For financial security, I only trust the dollar,'' said Ramon Ojeda, lining up with about 70 people outside the Paris Exchange House. ``The last thing I want is to be stuck holding a fistful of worthless pesos.''

Black Blade: It is difficult to have any sympathy for these "Grasshoppers". Those that did not prepare will suffer whereas those who did (Ants) will do fine - possibly even prosper - especially those with Gold.
Black Blade
Commodities-Oil rallies on Brent, gold awaits Japan
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020211/n11179199_1.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK, Feb 11 (Reuters) - Crude oil prices shot up to the highest level in a month on Monday as speculators jumped into the market after European oil prices spiked higher on talk of a supply squeeze for Brent, the benchmark North Sea crude. In other featured commodity trade, gold prices retreated but stayed above $300 as traders to see whether Japanese demand would return after Monday's holiday.


Black Blade:

Oil: Oil rose on US plans to begin replenishing the Clinton-Gore SPR oil giveaway that was disposed of in a failed effort to boost Al Gore's bid for the US presidency. Also Saddam Hussein of Iraq has announced that if GW decides to attack Iran, then Iraq will stand by their former enemy. Russia appears eager to increase production and compete against OPEC. Unfortunately for Russia, increased exports of oil in winter is very unlikely. Also OPEC could say "OK, fine - we'll produce more too". The problem is that much of OPEC can produce at prices as low as $8.00/bb. whereas Russia is dead in the water at $15.00/bb.

Gold: Gold held up well finishing above $300.00/oz. at the end of trading in NY. This is quite amazing as there was a strong effort by the Wall Street pimps to push Gold lower. There appears to be a new floor for the POG around $300.00. Tonight the Japanese markets reopen and it is expected that Japanese buying will resume. The free Chinas - HK and Taiwan will remain closed for New Years celebrations for the rest of the week. Mainland China has been accumulating several tons of Gold for reserves lately and this will continue into the new year. "Interesting Times"
slingshot
Uponroof Msg# 69792
HMCS VancouverJob Well Done, HMCS Vancouver.

U.S Defense Sec. Rumsfeld should worry about the condition of the U.S. aircraft carrier USS John F. Kennedy.

Wonder if he knows that the ship is having trouble getting
Certfied to go into combat. Should he not know at least the combatant vessels being utilize in that hostile area.

What else does he not know?

HMCS Vancouver is there on line. One up to the Canadians.
Slingshot
Black Blade
Kaplan Misses the Bull
http://www.goldminingoutlook.com/
Gold Bear SJ Kaplan has finally updated his page and yet is still a Gold Bear. He missed out on the best Gold rally in 5 years! He has made more bad calls than good ones, so I'll take this as a positive sign.

Now we await the open of the Japanese markets.

- Black Blade
Mythical
Sir Belgian...Euroland-Eurogold
Please elaborate on the Euroland gold bullion. Was this a picture/artist's rendering or a physical specimen? Please be more specific.
Mr Gresham
Leigh: Making a welcoming home
That was a great job with the poetry contest. What some people will do for friendship! But then, it IS close to Valentine's Day. (Plus: "Family is wherever you make it.")

"Home is the place where, when you have to go there, they have to take you in," wrote Robert Frost.
The Hoople
Gold will cut Prudential to "underperform"
The lame sell order on NEM by Prudential was pathetic, if not funny. The paper confetti machine Prudential issues a sell on real money-what a hoot! Also saw in Barron's today a bank analyst who was questioning whether gold and gold stocks were in a "bubble". They used to pound on gold with much more conviction, is this the best they can do? Gold is issuing a screaming sell on fiat, period. Prudential will get taken to the woodshed with all the other wallpaper still being offered as stock on Wall Street.
Canuck
27 minutes of golden glory
http://www.jonesheward.com/commentary.cfmMr. Coxe has turned slightly bullish and praises the truth!!

If you like Mr. Coxe, you will love this one.
Ray Patten
Tokyo Gold futures
http://www.tocom.or.jp/souba/souba_e.html
It looks like the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) Gold futures market is going to have a big influence on the world Gold market for the next few weeks at least. The above link is that market's quotes updated every 5 minutes. The market is open from 7PM to 3:30AM, New York time, with a 1 1/2 hour break for lunch. Prices are quoted in yen/gram. A current rule of thumb is to divide the yen price by 4.3 to get $/oz. I'm sure someone can come up with a better formula than that, however. The site is in English.
Black Blade
TOCOM Futures
It would appear that Gold and the PGMs are in backwardation on the TOCOM charts. Hmmm...

Meanwhile Gold is showing strength just above $300.00/oz. spot. That's encouraging.
Black Blade
Market Wrap Up - Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

If I had to bet on this one, I would bet against Wall Street. It is more likely, but not probable that Newmont's shares are going to head higher this year rather than lower. The analyst failed to mention monetary demand, and a flight to quality is what is driving the demand for gold shares at the moment -- not jewelry demand. Gold has been running an annual supply deficit for close to a decade. It has only been official central bank gold sales and gold leasing that has kept the price down. Gold Fields Minerals reported that central bank sales were 468 tons last year. Other reports put that number much higher. The fact remains that fabrication demand alone of 3,483 tons far outstrips gold production of only 2,595 tons.

Black Blade: Good one from Puplava tonight.
Black Blade
Shades of Enron at Global Crossing
http://www.washtimes.com/national/20020211-393691.htm
Snippit:

Global Crossing - the telecommunications company whose Jan. 28 bankruptcy court filing has been eclipsed by the growing battles over Enron - remains an enigma to the public even after joining Enron under the FBI microscope.

Black Blade: There are louder calls for a high profile investigation of Global Crossing and Qwest Communications may also be dragged into the mix. There are even calls for an investigation into Arthur Andersen's cozy relationship as auditor of not only Enron, but also as auditor for Global Crossing and Qwest. The auditing firm appears to be tied into several "questionable" calls in the Global Crossing-Qwest swaps that were allowed to show up on the balance sheets as profits. One Enron away from economic collapse? How about 2, or 3, or 4, or more? Today we also hear that EMC, the data storage company may be the next shoe to drop in this sorry saga of deteriorating auditing standards.


BTW, I sold the last of my Qwest shares last week. Just too many scandals, and then I heard an interview with the CEO - not very encouraging so I bailed.
jinx44
(No Subject)
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/champeau021302.htmlThis will be the forward to a book written in 2015, or thereabouts. Don't miss this editorial.
Waverider
Ballooning world prices halt India's gold imports
http://www.timesofindia.com/articleshow.asp?art_id=676533Snippit:
"Gold imports into India, the world's largest bullion market, have come to a complete halt due to volatile global prices and traders expect activity to pick up only after prices stabilise.

Gold imports in the city have stopped from about 4,000-5,000 bars (of 116.64 grams) per day nearly 10 days ago, traders said."

Waverider: Interesting little article out of India.

Black Blade - is there anything of interest in the CNNenEspanol I posted? It seemed to have a strong Central/South American focus. PS - the important question - did you buy Gold with the proceeds? (smile)
Black Blade
The Fall of the House of Morgan
http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=974348
Snippit:

Among the many banks stung by recent bankruptcies in America, one name stands out: J.P. Morgan Chase was a big lender to three of the biggest corporate failures-Enron, Kmart and Global Crossing-and has had to write off hundreds of millions of dollars. It also lost heavily in Argentina and on its private-equity holdings

Black Blade: Quite a long list of bad loans, lawsuits, poor investment decisions, and extreme derivative exposure. Interesting article.

Oh yeah BTW, But Michael Mayo, an analyst with Prudential Securities, is telling investors to sell J.P. Morgan shares.
Black Blade
Waverider
http://www.economista.com.mx/I have read the spanish edition of CNN before, I prefer El Excelsior from El Distrito Federal when I can get it (both print and digital). However, the Economista (Mexico) is fairly good as well. I also like La Naci--n from Argentina as well. There are several others, but these are my favorites.

As far as my proceeds are concerned, I just parked the funds in shares of Ferrell Gas Partners (FGP) for now. I am not giving advice here, they happen to be a partnership with high yeild. I hope to make some more Gold purchases when I step down from the "Bone Pile" in another month or so. Cheers!

- Black Blade
Black Blade
Waverider
http://www.analitica.com/va/economia/
Me gustan varias otras revistas en espa--ol. No todos son papeles de las noticias diarios - algunos son peri--dicos semanales o mensuales. Yo normalmente enfoco en noticias econ--micas o noticias de petr--leo. An example can be found at the link - happy reading! Cheers!
tedw
Real Value

Here is another way of looking at the real value of Gold and Fiat notes.It is an established principle when appraising that reproduction cost is one method of establishing value.

Reproduction cost of an ounce of Gold varies from mine to mine but generally it is in the $150 to $280 range (us dollars)(correct me if Im wrong).

What is the reproduction cost of 6 -$50 US notes? Although I dont know, I would suggest it is pennies due to the large quantities printed.

It is only because the vast number of players in the market
place have been hypnotized to believe in the intrinsic worth of fiat notes that they have perceived value.

The time will come when real value (as reflected in the reproducion cost) will assert itself. People will wake up and realize they have been had. Those holding Gold will have real value,those holding Fiat notes will have chits of paper.




Black Blade
POG Falls
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.htmlGold is falling off a cliff now - couldn't hold above $300.00/oz. Oh well, it was a nice try anyway.
Waverider
Black Blade
Estudi� el espa--ol en la escuela (a--os hace) y la necesidad, yo pienso, probablemente meses ..maybe..3-6 en SA. �Como el aprendizaje cualquier idioma, yo entiendo m�s que puedo synthesize! �A--o quiz� pr--ximo - zambullir en el Galapagos si soluciona! Esqu'o ma--ana tan dir� buenas noches. Cheers,
Waverider
ps - I cheated big time here :)

Belgian
@ Mythical # 69802
The inscriptions on the EuroGold 100 gram bullion plate :

Euro
Gold

100 g

Fine Gold
999,9

+ melter
assayer
000001

Providing the link + picture is against the rules of this house and to be respected ! (the word euroland (Brussels) is associated with Euro Gold).
If we hadn't been educated by A & A, who mentioned about eurogold (euroland) coins I would never have given any importance on this Euro Gold inscription. But as a good student I have to come up with evidence on our beloved Professor's (Sir Douglas) theories. I think that this EuroGold/euroland thing is to be considered as an indication on what FOA has been projecting in his wildiest of reality dreams. Regards to you Mythical.
Black Blade
Bank of America Money Found at Ground Zero
http://www.newsday.com/business/ny-wtcmoney0211.story?coll=ny%2Dbusiness%2Dheadlines
Snippit:

Enough cash to fill 60 garbage bags was pulled from the rubble at the World Trade Center site over the weekend by police and excavation workers, officials said Monday. The U.S. and foreign currency is believed to be part of $11 million reported missing by Bank of America. Police and excavation workers filled about 60 garbage bags with the currency, which they turned over to the city's Processing Clerk Division for handling, he said.

Black Blade: Let's see - There's Gold and Silver at ground zero and it's in a steel vault. Someone tries to break in as evidenced by pry and torch marks. Guards are posted at the vault and cameras put in place until the vault is opened. When the vault is opened, the Gold and Silver is hauled away in armored trucks.

$11 million in fiat is found at ground zero and low level workers put it into garbage bags. Hmmm�
Mythical
Belgian... Eurogold
Thank you for clarifying your recent message. No need to explain your respect for our gracious host by not posting the related link. Frankly, I'm a bit surprised that very few took notice to that juicy tidbit. I agree wholeheartedly, that this is further evidence of A/FOA's thoughts gradually being introduced without much fanfare. Your posts are very much appreciated!

Respectfully,
Michael
Black Blade
Gold marks time in Europe, silver slightly lower
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020212/l12218691_1.html
Snippit:

LONDON, Feb 12 (Reuters) - Gold marked time in Europe on Tuesday morning, looking for direction and building a base for a fresh attempt to cross the key $300.00 level, traders said. Traders said they expected another medium-term rally as the market in Japan re-opened after a break on Monday to celebrate a national holiday.

``I expect another spike, we might touch maybe $305 within days. Basically, nothing has changed since last week. Japan's worries are still there so they will continue to buy,'' one said. Another said gold might first test support at $297.00 before moving higher. Buying was expected to emerge at lower levels and lift the market off the lows. ``It will be a very short play around $297 but then we will move higher. The market can hold these levels,'' he said.


Black Blade: Maybe we will see more volatility in Gold once the Asian markets reopen after Lunar New Year celebrations.

Also the FBI is crying "Wolf" yet again with stories about an invasion of terrorists who are supposed to strike the US today.

Ken Lay tells the US Congress to "get bent" as he pleads the fifth. Many more Enrons come to light on a daily basis - or so it seems.
Cavan Man
Belgian
Doesn't this Euro gold coin have a fiat value (denomination) inscribed? I have heard it does. Thanks
Knallgold
EuroGold 100 gram bullion plate
Very interesting!But what we need is an accompanying announcement with an official change in (Gold)policy.Otherwise its just the change of the stamped sign on the Gold.Oh,and where will they get all this Gold?From the 12000t stashas Mundell suggested once?

I guess Michael is already researching this EuroGold story :-)
RobotGuy
Lower Open
I think we might see a big drop in the markets today. Nortel has announced lower spending, and investors don't approve. All of the hype over the last few days in the markets could be blown away in one day. I think gold is also going to drop today, but I could be wrong. It just seems like it went up so quickly, that it needs to retrace a few steps before it can move again. All just guestimations.
CoBra(too)
"Blue Letter" averted by Germany and Portugal- but only just.
Germany and Portugal averted the EU Commission's official early warning by vowing to bring the budget deficits down
and in line with the stability pact's limits.

Political influence by Germany at all levels to avoid spanking from the EU Commission does not bode well for the future stability of the �. It also shows that the big countries are just a little more equal than the small. Would it have been Portugal alone you can bet it would have got the pink slip.

Furthermore, the regime of Helmut Schroeder and Hans Eichel has led to exploding deficits and to an disproportionate economic slump in Germany. Instead of being the economic leader of the EU it is now leading the union into real recession - and the only hope for the German Socialists is again the US taking the lead. Fat Chance, as the consumer of last resort is totally maxxed out.

As a l.t. �-skeptic, one more reason for physical gold feels
cb2



Pizz
Belgian -A few thoughts
Belgian - Nice pick-up on the Eurogold. Another piece to FOA/Another's mosaic.

About 15 years ago I met (briefly) an older lady who was retired out of the USA diplomatic corps. These are our ambassadors who are posted to our embassies around the world. They rub shoulders and minds with the "power" people and have their own "networks".

This lady was extremely concerned at that time (mid 80"s)that the credit card (debt) issue was going to take down the world economy. She forcasted that the Visa/Mastercard system would soon be on the brink. (I'm going to do more research on this issue).

Never really gave it any thought until your post. Being a fairly newby to the forum, I started reading FOA with a great deal of sceptisizm (never could spell, but sounds right). His message is now starting to become way too real.
If I had to guess, since we know Another is English, I'd bet FOA has either come out of the ambassador arena or something very close. If I'm right, and until I see trends to the contrary, my vote is we have some very good "inside" information on the state of the world.

My own worst virtue is Patience. I fight it every day. I try to keep in mind the supertanker post. The message and transition are going to take time, and there will be many paths leading away from the trail.

Keep up the good work. It's starting.

Pizz

Cavan Man
Keep your own investment counsel?
NOTHING FOR SOMETHING
By Bill Bonner


"Sure, every company on the NYSE would show earnings if
you eliminated expenses. Listen, you have to remember
that Wall Street's business is the business of
distributing stocks to the public. When you see who
these characters are, you know you're not dealing with
philanthropists. These guys want to make money, and they
do it by distributing their wares, the same as Wal-Mart
does."

Unattributed comment on Richard Russell's
website
CoBra(too)
@ CM - Found the following excerpt from Eric Fry as refreshing-
*** Brokerage houses almost never issue "sell" signals.
They hold stocks such as Global Crossing, Cisco,
WorldCom or Enron...until the share price goes to
practically zero. Then, and only then, do they change
their rating from "Strong Buy" to "Accumulate." Imagine,
then, the excitement when Prudential told investors to
sell...Newmont! It seems to be okay to sell gold
producers. They must not give Wall Street enough
business.

*** Prudential's sell signal on Newmont may confirm that
a new bull market in gold is developing.

Quite the statement - go figure cb2
RobotGuy
FBI Warning!!
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2002/02/12/MNWARNING12.DTLSnippit:

According to the alert, "recent information indicates a planned attack may occur in the United States or against U.S. interests in the country of Yemen on or around 2/12/02. One or more operatives may be involved in the attack."


RobotGuy; Good thing I'm not a financial advisor. This report may cause some gold buying today, and in the near future.
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sector
Yen has held in a steady range centered 133.33 for about a week
...Thus the upward yen price of gold has also been steady.

The dollar index on the other hand is slipping...down from 120 to 118 during the same period.

This MAY be a trend to lower the dollar and keep the yen where it is...time will tell.

The trend that really counts above all else is the move to gold by the Japanese family housewives (who happen to control more than meets the eye). They have no viable alternatives to safety:

(i) The yen is in a primary down trend
(ii) The NKK225 is moribund and confidence is lost
(iii) Japanese bonds are a joke at 1%
(iiii) Japanese real estate still hasn't returned to bargain status
(v) Their export economy [just about everything] depends solely upon a cheap yen since the world economy (read purchasing power) is flat and will stay that way for some time
(vi) The rapid access funds (cash) are breathtaking in size
(vii) The Japanese media is less propagandistic than CNBC and actually tells the truth once in a while...i.e., it isn't treason in Japan the show moms and pops buying gold to obtain "safety" for their life savings

American denial regarding the stock markets down future coupled with a powerful media anti-gold [abating of late] campaign tends to divert attention away from the above unrelenting forces at work in Japan.



Cavan Man
@CB(too)
CB: Do you know anything about the Euro gold coin Belgian and Knallgold have been chatting about. My understanding is that there is a fiat value stamped on the coin as well. If that is not correct then I do believe another friend has given a "heads up" on this. Still figurin'....CM
RobotGuy
Possible Attack
I remember the close watch America was keeping on the Sears Tower in Chicago shortly after the Sept. 11 attacks. These terrorists like to take as many people with as little effort as possible. Recently in Canada a number of government immigrant documents were stolen, I am not aware of their whereabouts. Chicago has easy access from Canada Via. Lake Michigan. Since airport travel is out of the question, these terrorists may consider entering the United States through alternate means from Canada if they are on this continent. The Sears tower would be an ideal location for this type of assault. Ground level explosives would be extreemly devastating to such a structure. I hope United States military personnel are prepared to probe any individuals trying to get anywhere near the viscinity of this structure.
I don't believe the Olympics would be the main focus of this group.
With any luck, all of the individuals suspected in this group were already killed in the bombings in Afghanistan.
sector
Congress Pushes for Accounting Reform..well almost.
http://www.msnbc.com/news/705289.asp?0si=-Panel pushes accounting oversight

House committee wants to create private regulatory board

By Michael Schroeder
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

WASHINGTON, Feb. 12 � The House committee that oversees the financial-services industry, signaling an unexpected intent to impose changes, has decided against letting regulators have sole responsibility for deciding how to overhaul financial reporting....]

[...Among other things, the proposed bill would order the SEC to require that off-balance sheet transactions be reported and that material events that could affect the value of a company's stock must be reported as they occur � both of which are changes being pushed by Mr. Pitt.
The accounting industry, with the support of many members of Congress, bitterly fought efforts by Mr. Levitt to ban auditors from cross-selling certain categories of consulting services to clients. Now, many of those same lawmakers are embracing tough new auditor-independence standards in light of criticism that Arthur Andersen LLP may have accepted questionable Enron accounting for fear of losing lucrative consulting work.
The bill would ban audit firms from offering their clients assistance in preparing financial statements, or so-called internal audit work. The SEC would be charged with reviewing whether other consulting services should be banned, including tax-preparation services. In the aftermath of so many recent accounting scandals, the accounting profession, with an eye toward restoring confidence in the audit process, has expressed interest in working with the SEC on improvements. Some major firms now support separating audit and consulting services and have already announced plans to do so on their own....]
++++++++++++++++++++++

No independent oversight in the bill so no true reform...but it's a start.

So much so that the baddies are scared...bad.
Belgian
EuroGold (100 gram bullion and coins)
@ CM : NO, fiat value (denomination) ! NOT official minting.
But a stamped sign "EuroGold" is too coincidental to be insignificant.

@ KnallGold : Do you rember what happened (to POG) with the "Official" Goldpolicy announcement in '99 = W.A. ?
Any such official announcement had and will have, dramatic and immediate consequences ! We have to anticipate such announcements with extra spying on seemingly insignificant events ! The Chineze central banks made a very official statement on Gold, recently ! A 25% increase of their official Goldreserves ! Still an infinitesimal amount of 500 little tonnes for 1,6 billion people, slowly participating in the most exhuberant economic development !
This was an extremely strong announcement to me ! Don't you agree ?

@ CBII : I've disconnected the short term (!) economical fortunes of Euroland from the present euro/Gold/oil-concept.
The stability and growth pact will call for Gold's intensive/openly help when appropiate. All these little euro-rows aren't worrying me at this stage. The concept-builders are a very silent force (my intuition only).
Belgian/French media are highlighting all aspects of the Arabian Oil world as never before. Euro-policies with Arabia/China/Russia/Eurasia are evolving on a much different trail than the US policies. And I bet that the euro-currency, Gold and Oil are incorporated within this policies. Without attacking the US-dollar openly at any given moment. Will wait for closer evidence.

@ Pizz : Why does the euro-currency, discretely, wants to be associated with Gold (Duisenberg pictured in Dutch Gold vault)? This in sharp contrast with the US dollar who hates Gold as the plaque ! This is exactly what FOA wants to communicate. And indeed, this euro/Gold association/concept is presented with a low profile and subtily discrete.
This does not indicate that nothing is growing underneath. As a possible example : Is it coincidence (again) that the recent minus 10$ POG goes with a plus 1 1/2$ POO ? Without A/FOA, I would never have seen this possible relation.
Surely more to come on evidence. Kind regards to you.
Knallgold
CavanMan,EuroGold
It should not have any fiat value stamped on it,it would prove FOA wrong.He said it will be something like a Krug.,just the Gold content setting its value.Gold,not the money,rather the store of value.

A plate,is it is round or more like flat bar?Sorry ma bad english,but in german a plate can be of any form if it is "platt", flat.

CM,you don't mean the Golden Ecu? Recently I saw one in a bank and this made me jump as thought I missed something in the news.

On the fiat value,the correct number would be infinite and not find enough space on the coin...

sector
Gauchos on Mt. Fuji?
http://atimes.com/japan-econ/DB12Dh01.htmlhttp://atimes.com/japan-econ/DB12Dh01.html

Japan the Asian Argentina?
By Uwe Parpart, Editor, Asia Times Online

Looking at his country, Goldman Sachs Japan chief economist Tetsufumi Yamakawa can offer little more than recounting a cynical joke that's been making the rounds for some time in financial circles: "What's the difference between Japan and Argentina?" Answer: "Five years." But after international ratings agencies once again downgraded key Japanese financial institutions on February 5, that projection has to be rewritten, says Yamakawa. "Now it's only three years, or one, or perhaps just six months - depending on how optimistic you are." �]
[�
By official Japanese government count, non-performing loans (NPLs) run at only (!) 43 trillion yen or about 8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) - more than double the level during the US Savings & Loan crisis of the 1980s. Private NPL estimates range from 60 trillion yen all the way up to 100 trillion yen. If that's not enough, the total amount of bad loans - in spite of 2.5 trillion yen in bank write-offs - rose by 500 billion yen from April to September last year, because an additional 3 trillion yen worth of loans went sour during that period. "They [the banks] can try to deal with either the old non-performing loans or the new ones, but not both," says HSBC analyst Brian Waterhouse. If Japan's banks were subject to the same accounting standards as America's, most would fail to meet the 8 percent Basle capital adequacy criterion needed to operate internationally. Some would even have negative capital. The banking system is technically insolvent. �]
[�
Now to the Argentina-style scenario for Japan. As a result of a decade of overspending by the central and local governments and concomitant failure to reform the economy, Argentina is bankrupt. Its ratio of government debt to GDP stands at 55 percent. As a result of a decade of overspending by the central and local governments in order to avoid (and hence, of course, failure of) reform, Japanese public debt stands at over 130 percent of GDP (by far the largest of any major economy in the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD) and according to Standard & Poor's will rise to 175 percent by the middle of the decade. That Argentina went bust while Japan to date continues to be able to service its relatively (and, obviously, absolutely) much larger debt is largely due to a huge difference in interest rates in deflationary Japan and inflationary Argentina.
Still, there are any number of sequences of events that could lead to the detonation of the Japanese debt bomb. Here's one: A large life insurance company fails (five smaller ones have already bitten the dust) and pushes a big partner bank to the edge of insolvency. Foreign fund managers pull out of stocks, bonds and the yen en masse. Spooked savers stage a run on the banks. Interest rates spike. The government bond market takes a nose dive. The crisis is on. Life insurers are particularly vulnerable now precisely for the same reason Japan is still able to service its debt: deflation and ultra-low interest rates. They wrote long-term policies 10 or 20 years ago with guaranteed nominal rates of return of 5.5 percent, but their current investment returns are well below 2 percent, producing a total negative spread of nearly 2 trillion yen per year. And life insurers are particularly apt to produce a crisis, because they turn to partner banks for help, buying bank shares in return for bank purchases of insurers' debt. Let an insurer fail and the partner bank won't be far behind. Keiretsu strikes again. �]
++++++++++++++++++

Japan is the key to gold confidence.
Knallgold
Belgian
I fully agree!Occasionally,I watch my stored Kitco graph from 26. Sept. 99,just for entertainement...

When I tell people about China (and Russia) buying Gold,it seems it makes them thinking a bit more than usual.Especially those who are aware about the sleeping and patient giant China!

As to the "seemingly insignificant events",I can add those:

regularly I check for news in the food departement.Several new Tea's have cought my eyes (all in liquid form in a Tetrapack): Green Tea(!) with Osmanthus/Passionflower extracts,Green Tea with (Chinese!) Shizandra-berries extract,a vanillaflavoured (South African!) Rooibos Tea.

But you know I'm hearing the grass growing...its probably just the WTO effect.
TownCrier
Argentina reality has unfolded as predictions warranted by theory -- world gold market yet ahead
http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1021017-6094-0,00.htmlFrom the article:

----------BUENOS AIRES The Argentinian peso fell 12% yesterday, on the first day of fully floated trade against the US currency in more than a decade as anguished investors lined up for dollars to shield savings from the feared return of rampant inflation.

...Economists' forecasts for the currency have ranged from just more than two to the dollar to as much as five pesos in the next few months, shocking for a country used to its currency unit being worth a dollar each since 1991.

...Argentinians' access to cash has been severely restricted since early December when the government slapped unpopular limitations on bank withdrawals to stop a run on the banks which already saw around a quarter of deposits flee the system last year as panic grew about devaluation.

...After a bloody December of rioting forced elected president Fernando de la Rua and his initial successor to resign, Eduardo Duhalde, a Peronist former vice-president, took the helm and devalued ... was forced to stiffen the cash limits imposed by De la Rua and convert all dollar savings and loans into pesos.

But Argentina's 36-million people, with access blocked to their cash, watched anxiously as their earnings dwindle in terms of the dollar. They now fear a fresh financial blow in the form of rampant inflation.-----------

Yes, I called this well in advance, but I do not gloat because a VERY good friend and his family did not take and act upon my cautions. Lulled into a false sense of confidence after a decade-long period of "business as usual" in Argentina, they just couldn't accept my troublesome predictions at face value.

Having raised an eyebrow at the notion that the peso would lose its "converitibility" (meaning, its one-to-one peg with the dollar), and despite my warnings (as early as last April) about potential bank runs and capital controls, my friend felt that their U.S. dollar-denominated accounts were beyond touch, representing adequate diversification against "the unthinkable" striking his homeland.

How did he and his family fare, less than a year later? Let me repeat from this article: ---"Eduardo Duhalde ... was forced to stiffen the cash limits imposed by De la Rua and convert all dollar savings and loans into pesos."--- Needless to say, he and his family now suffer the torment of unnecessarily lost wealth and financial uncertainty.

The gold market, too, shall unfold as has been predicted, and gold derivatives or gold proxies will not live up to expectations due to default and rules changes. My comments on the matter are scatered widely through the archives and are therefore of little use to newcomers here and now. Not to fear, the 'Gold Trail' pages are available to give you the big picture in one easy location -- and better than I could.

http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/

You need physical gold for the full journey. Argentina as an example, the value of paper substitutes have clearly shown their vulnerability.

R.
Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD
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Pizz
More thoughts
Belgian: As you discount a few Euro-rows, I discount daily correlations between gold & oil. I believe the FOA cheap oil for cheap gold is now pretty much over. Gold will break ties with everthing once set free.

The subtle Euro/gold correlation - this is FOA all the way. Notice how as paper US markets lose confidence, we see the subtle move towards the confidence of the age old metal (I know you see it, and so do I). The loose tying of the Euro to gold reserves, IMO will finally (3-5 years) move towards small quantities of gold in coin (or even paper - spun gold thread by weight in paper????). As fiat and paper inflate away, the correlations to gold will become firmer & firmer.

Paper Holders/Paper Traders: Be prepared to lose it all, because the markets are going to be so volitile IMHO over the next 18 months, they will be virtually untradeable. I will still play with a little, cause I love the game, but its a game, and a rigged one it is. You can't lose over the long run with physical and I am still accumulating. With a little luck, a few mine shares could cover my fiat debts, and that's the goal, but I'll have to win my own personal war with Patience and Greed. I hope I have the fortitude to sell a bit early, but the patience to hang in there for a while (anyone got a few extra Valium?? - just kidding!)

Argentina??: Sure looks like a Japanese lab experiment to me.

The War on Terror: I'm expecting a Nazi type blitzkreig thru Iraq by the US. Too quiet, too much subtle dissention among our "friends". It's going to take something real big to get Enron and the rolling bankrupsy's off Page 1. Right after the Olympics is my guess.

Pizz

ski
Why not Japanese Silver Buying??


There have been indications of recent Japanese buying of gold and platinum. Some on this forum have taken it a step further and developed mathematical projections for gold consumption as a result of the Japanese buying. "If just X amount of families with X amount of yen were to purchase gold, it would result in X amount of tons of gold purchased."

If the Japanese are just half as smart as I think they are, they will also be strong silver buyers. Why? Because if only SEVERAL DOZENS of Japanese families bought silver, they would end up owning all of the remaining known silver stock in the world. We can only guess what this would do to the world price of silver as a result. But it would be safe to say that in percentage terms, silver would make a larger percentage gain versus gold if and when the buying finally runs its course.



Cavan Man
Belgian, Knallgold and CB(too)
My European friends:

Please clarify regarding the Euro gold coin. Is there such an animal? If so, does it or does it not have a fiat value stamped on it? I somehow have gotten confused (dumb Irishman that I am). FOA did say there would be a coin like the krand. I am curious to know if this is true. TIA..CM
Leigh
"Blast" From the Past
Apparently over at the Urban Survival website, they're using web bots to predict an attack on some large, influential financial institution - for example, the London Metals Exchange.

Does anyone remember the ending of "Rock 'n' Roll High School? (where things got wilder and wilder and finally the school blew up)" That's exactly what this would remind me of.
Henri
Trail Guides Message 36028 from Sept.2000
More golden nuggets along the trail...? Admonition to Watch Oil!
Max Rabbitz
Is the Normandy deal over?
http://www.quicken.com/investments/news/cbsmw/notemplates/frame.dcg?symbol=NEM&ntlink=/relocate/co=quotes_cbs;http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/intuit/pulseone.asp?siteid=intuit&dist=intuit&dateid=37298.4447106481-796674964&796674964Have gold manipulators really given up on preventing the Newmont merger with Normandy? The analyst's rational for downgrading Newmont was company specific. In fact he raised 2002 and 2003 average gold price estimates to $300. Here is the story from CBS Marketwatch.

"Analyst Jon Tumazos at Prudential Securities downgraded the stock to "sell" from "hold," and cut his price target to $10 from $21. Tumazos thinks that several of the deposits that classifies as reserves or resources "appear suspect," and he worries that the company buy out its partner or invest capital to build large mines that produce no gold at a profit. Meanwhile, he raised his earnings estimates for the company given the recent surge in gold prices. He also lifted his gold price estimate for both 2002 and 2003 to $300 from $270 and $290, respectively. "We attribute the recent increase in investment interest to poor returns cash, bond and stocks stemming from 1.7-percent short-term rates, lousy corporate earnings, and probably shorter-term accounting anxieties."

Max: Referring to "suspect reserves" may be an attempt to stir up a little Enronitis. And "buy out it's partner"? It's called a merger. And "build large mines that produce no gold at a profit"? What he means to say but can't is that Newmont plans to mine and sell gold without hedging. He wants them to hedge and lock in that little profit now that gold is at $300.

Maybe Prudential just wanted to help their preferred customers cover their shorts. Den of thieves. But maybe there is more to it and if Newmont will have problems closing the merger.

I wonder if there will be labor or terrorist problems at Newmont's big mine (Yanacocha) in Peru, or in Indonesia, or elsewhere. Everyone knows there are lots of problems in the third world.

It's nice to have the physical in hand.



Black Blade
All Right Leigh! - Rock and Roll High School

Some how I never pictured you as a Punk Rock "Rock and Roller". You don't have spike hair do you?(just kidding). Unfortunately Joey Ramone (of the Ramones) died last year. Cheers!

- Black Blade
Boxman
A pox on Prudential for their Newmont call. Sweet revenge
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/business/article/0,1299,DRMN_4_982183,00.htmlsnippet:

Though the company's stock dipped about 5 percent Monday because of an analyst's sell rating and a modest drop in gold prices, the company is confident prices will continue their uptrend this year.

"The fact our stock didn't go down more today is attributable to the fact that many see gold will continue to rise in the future," said Newmont spokesman Doug Hock. "And gold is still up around $300, which is a psychologically important level."

Montgomery sees gold prices hitting $340 an ounce by the end of the year.

"As time goes by, gold is going to get the respect it's missed in last 25 years," he said. "We're going through a financial crisis in the world now."

Max Rabbitz
Wells's Paulsen Sees Long Bond Yields at 41-Year Low
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APGl5OBRLV2VsbHMnPaulsen, who helps oversee $75 billion as chief investment officer at Capital Management in Minneapolis, said 10-year Treasury yields will drop to 3.75 percent this year from 4.96 percent. The prediction hinges on his expectation that officials will enact policies to accomplish what 11 Federal Reserve rate cuts failed to do last year: lower long-term borrowing costs.

``The economy will disappoint because of the high cost of long capital,'' and that will spur Congress and the Federal Reserve to find news ways to drive interest rates lower, said Paulsen, who correctly predicted the bond rally of 2000 would extend a second year. ``There's great angst about why long rates haven't come down.''

Max: They need to bring down those long rates to keep the mortgage refinancing going. But how? Getting rid of the long bond worked less than 2 weeks. Gold is getting out of control. Paulsen doesn't say what those "new ways" could be but I'm sure they'll come up with something. Japan could do it. So can we.
Broken Tee
Story at Bloomberg
Earlier today I could swear I saw an article that said Reynolds(?) Aluminum filed Chapter 11 today. I can't find anything on it now.
Would someone please help me. I think my short term memory may be going.....
Max Rabbitz
Jon Tumazos at Prudential Securities
How many times have you seen an analysist raise his earnings estimates for a company at the same time he lowers his rating......to a sell. Strange times.
Max Rabbitz
Broken Tee and Aluminum
http://www.voanews.com/article.cfm?objectID=CAEFA4FA-184A-4905-9481DE1F10D75996&Title=Kaiser%20Aluminum%20Files%20for%20Bankruptcy%20Protection&CatOID=45C9C785-88AD-11D4-A57200A0CC5EE46CReynolds merged with Alcoa last year. There was a story today on Kaiser Aluminum. Yes, more bones for the bone pile. Don't know how many. Slow economy, big debt and asbestos lawsuits did them in.
Broken Tee
Max Rabbitz
Thanks for the confirmation. It still looks like there maybe a short term memory problem though. (Kaiser not Reynolds) Thanks Again.
Cavan Man
Broken Tee
Kaiser Aluminum is in bankruptcy (filed today).
Boxman
Ominous signs from Japan
http://www.depression2.tv/chronicles/chronicles1.htmlSnippet:

"In the next issue, we will discuss Tamisuke Matsufuji, a former Solomon Brothers bond trader who wants to blow the lid off the gold price and how he plans to do it".

...........................................................

I'll keep my eye peeled for this next article.
Voyager
Japan Banks & Bad Loans
Can someone please explain who owes them on all these loans?
goldquest
John Tumazos and NEM
http://www.zacks.com/stories/99164154436.htmlNot the first time Tumazos has slammed NEM.
uponroof
Max, Boxman, goldquest ...all
Prudential, like all savvy corporations has a very big marketing department, which is now apparently branching off into show business. Their new production is entitled...
"Attack on the Weak Hands"

Expect bad news, but beware of it. This may just be the start (for all gold related issues).

It's intended to scare weak handed share holders into selling....allowing insiders a buying opportunity at bargain prices.

I hope this is what's going on as it portends well for gold.

What's that old saying about prying something out of my cold dead hands?

Pizz
Observations
My lady in accounts payable yesterday finished reconciling one of our factory statements. Found thousands in credits (to us) posted as debits (invoices) to us in January. Their bank loans are tied to their Accounts Receivable (dealers).

Today we received a corrected statement (in February of course).

Could be an error, or what???? I personally don't think it was a mistake, since this foreign manufacturer has been in trouble for a long time. So much for 100,000 mile warranties!!!

Starting to see a lot of small indications that there are major cracks in the balance sheets and cash flow for auto manufacturers and their finance arms.

Gett'n real ugly quicker than I thought.

Pizz
Black Blade
Prudential - NEM Downgrade

Has anyone considered that these investment houses and brokerages are not at all happy that the large unhedged miner Newmont won the bidding war for Normandy over mega-hedger AngloGold? This downgrade by Prudential (of criminal fraud fame) is probably payback. Many fundamentals were overlooked by this alleged analyst in the report such as the large accumulated reserves from the Normandy acquisition, over $1 billion cash reserves brought to the table by Franco-Nevada, and the steady stream of royalty payments and free cash flow in the Franco-Nevada stable. Either this alleged Prudential analyst (John Tumazos) is a complete idiot, or he complicit in a concerted effort to bring down the share price of this Non-hedger and by association the price of Gold. It is a rather transparent shallow attempt because the facts do not support the basis for the downgrade. If anything, the facts should result in a much higher premium to the share price. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see through the real reasons for the downgrade.

- Black Blade
Black Blade
Gold Fields head sees better days
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={93889AA2-5EEE-4F18-A83B-1FA820C4D562}&siteid=mktw
Gold Council to promote metal as investment

Snippit:

Editor's note: Thom Calandra has vowed to dye his hair gold if the precious metal closes above $300 an ounce for five straight days. The spot price of gold late Monday fell below $300 to close at $299.80, ending a three-day run. Stay tuned.

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - The gold industry, enjoying its first taste of $300 spot gold in two years, will meet this week in South Africa to discuss where to go from here. The Cape Town mining conference brings together executives, investors and government officials from 25 countries. Many of them are hopeful that African nations, which are intensely reliant on natural resources, can draw investment dollars, euros and yen to their country's mining projects.

Thompson prides himself on fashioning one of the world's largest non-hedged producers of the metal. Unlike Anglogold and Barrick, Gold Fields refrains from selling forward its production, a practice that would boost the payment it receives for that gold. The dark side of hedge books is they encourage loose lending of the metal, thus depressing the gold price.

With global interest rates at depressed levels, hedgers are no longer assured of hefty returns when they take the cash from their forward sales and put it into interest-bearing pieces of paper. Plus, gold's fresh volatility is scary for hedgers, who can get "caught out" by a rapid price rise and see their forward-sale price actually come in below the metal's spot price. Anglogold, the world's largest of the notorious hedged gold miners, is now saying it hopes to slowly reduce its hedge book

What's more, the so-called contango between futures prices in faraway delivery months and nearby months is shrinking. A fat contango, which usually occurs when supplies are adequate, helps hedgers squeeze even more money out of their forward sales.


Black Blade: The day of the Hedger is over. I do not pity the Mega-hedgers as they are getting their just deserts. Barrick has no PE, because it has no E. AngloGold can't even win a bidding war against smaller Non-Hedger Newmont. These guys are in a world of hurt - especially if the POG rockets higher. In fact I do not even pity the stupid shareholders of these Mega-hedgers as they have had poor performance and most have lost value. That is the case for those who do not do their DD. Only the profitable Non-Hedgers will survive. Gold is an insurance policy against periods of economic distress. That is why physical Gold is so important. The Hedgers have sold their off their insurance value and in fact risk bankruptcy in the face of a rising POG. Quite ironic isn't it?
R Powell
Newmont
With all the talk of Prudential's downgrade of Newmont, I thought I'd take a peek at today's trading.
Hello, what's this!
NEM 23.97 +0.46 +1.96%
I don't own any stock but if I did, I'd be happy to have the rock's downgrading if it brings such results.
Also, Gooood day for the white stuff!
Rich
Black Blade
Ominous Signs from Japan
http://www.depression2.tv/chronicles/chronicles1.html
Snippit:

The daily televised circus of the Enron scandal is mere titty-tainment, a smokescreen obscuring a real crisis: The breakdown of global capitalism. In this issue we examine recent developments in Japan, and the ominous signs of things to come, not only for Japan, but for the rest of the world economy.

Japan's economy, mired in stagnation and recession for the past 12 years, has seen its stock market lose 75% of its value, unemployment and homelessness climb to record levels, and public debt soar beyond belief. Now, things are about to get worse for Japan and the rest of the world.

Gold in Japan

In the mean time gold sales in Japan are starting to pick up. In the 4th Quarter of last year, investment gold sales rose 54% in Japan, according to Grant's Interest Rate Observer. There is news that this investment is coming from citizens, buying physical gold, keeping it in their homes as a store of value. Extreme nervousness must be setting in to see this type of activity.

Unfortunate as it is for Japan, this development is extremely bullish for the world gold market: Avid savers, the average Japanese has over $105,000 stashed away. Half of that is in the bank, earning next zero yield, precisely the same amount that gold would earn. Gold, however is not at risk of vaporizing into thin air, the way a fiat currency is. Gold is a rock solid store of value, and also sports a nice potential upside. Japan currently accounts for only 20% of world investment in gold. There is plenty of room to grow! And from a cultural standpoint, there are few barriers to an increase in the purchase of consumer investment gold. This is a country where the majority of people are still paid in cash on payday! Fear of theft, a big impediment to physical gold investment in this country (where am I going to keep it?), is nearly non existant in Japan. One good marketing campaign on the part of the gold industry could spur unbelievable demand. Japanese marketers can be masterful, and consumers quite obedient to their overtures�

The Feb 10 Observer notes: "Japanese consumers have also been flocking to banks to convert the rapidly depreciating yen into gold bars. There are fears that the banking system could collapse when government deposit guarantees lapse in March."


Black Blade: If you want to see some gruesome looking graphs, just check out the article. The Japanese economy is in a desperate situation. During the convention of "Davos on the Hudson", several attendees commented that the world economy was at risk because of Japan. Japanese Gold buying is not a fluke - they know what is coming.
USAGOLD
Black Blade. . . .Gold Demand
Unfortunate for the Argentinians that they went first. Though if they had been even passing students of history, they should have known. In dealing with the self-inflicted destruction of the new paradigm, they led the way. It is unfortunate what went on there -- still goes on there -- and I feel for them. Imagine watching the world disintegrate around you and being kept from your assets by the government supposedly established to help you. (The Enron lesson is not far removed from that.) Meanwhile the rest of the world learned -- including the Japanese. Hence, the burgeoning demand. Astute investors around the world now know: It can happen "here" -- wherever "here" might be -- including Japan, the United States and Europe. For the rest of us, in this context, we are at a turning point; not the end game.

There is time to act -- and acting can be at many levels, but none more important than this:

Own the gold.

And the let the politicians, the press and the financial scalawags fight over who's to blame.

FOA . . . .Perhaps Tostoy was right after all.

Getting over the cold and flu and getting back in the mix. Best to all. . . . .
Black Blade
Market Update - Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

Even worse is the fact that many companies are starting to come clean on their earnings. Auditors are taking a harder look at how the numbers are reported and the SEC and the FBI are investigating companies. Global Crossing could turn out to be a bigger scandal than Enron. In the latest accounting story, Nortel said it fired its chief financial officer, Terry Hungle, because he violated retirement plan investing rules. With government, and now the accounting professions keeping a watchful eye, more companies are fessing up to internal accounting problems. It makes many in the investment community nervous because you don't know whose dirty laundry is going to be exposed on the line.

On the international front, the picture is growing more worrisome. The Japanese economy appears to be heading towards the abyss. Its stock market is down 75% from its high reached back in the late 80's. The economy has been stagnating for more than a decade. The unemployment rate is still climbing is at levels not seen in several decades. The government of Japan has $5 trillion in debt. With interest rates rising on Japanese debt, it is no longer considered to be of the highest quality. And for the first time since the 1980's, the Japanese stock market has been selling at a level that is lower than the Dow. People are lining up in the streets in Japan to buy gold as the government phases out deposit guarantees at Japanese banks. For the Japanese citizen, there are no safer places to put their money than history's money of last resort. With their currency down over 20% this year and interest rates near zero, it is no wonder the average Japanese investor is turning towards gold. Gold sales in the third quarter of last year rose by 91% from the previous year. For Japanese investors, it keeps getting worse. However, Japan's problems could become the world's problems since they are banker to the world. Japan has trillions in overseas investments and loans that may have to be repatriated if things get much worse. A withdrawal of Japanese capital from around the globe could cause financial markets to tumble. It is a problem that is keeping G-7 leaders up at night.


Black Blade: Japan's economy is about to slide off into the abyss and the US economy is deep into Recession (actually a deepening New Depression) in spite of what the pimps of Wall Street claim.

MK - I hope you get better soon, you may have a lot more business to take care of as the World's economies deteriorate. Cheers!
TownCrier
Many are climbing aboard the gold train
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/feb2002/pi20020212_1031.htmChief sector strategist for Standard & Poor's looks favorable upon gold, writes...

HEADLINE: Gold: A Haven -- and More

-----The precious metal's improved fundamentals, as well as investors looking for a hedge, have S&P bullish on the gold-mining industry

Gold is traditionally seen as a safe harbor investment in times of turmoil. Like now. The price of the yellow metal -- and of shares in companies that mine and produce it -- have held up well since the September 11 terrorist attacks. And gold has again taken center stage since the Enron debacle.

However, jittery investors looking for a refuge aren't all that's powering the advance in gold. S&P metals analyst Leo Larkin points out that the metal's fundamentals have improved. That's why he has a positive investment outlook...----------

(click link for his summary review of gold's many positive fundamentals -- all of which you've probably already seen in MK's "daily" reports here. But seeing a reminder now and again from an outside source is nice.)
USAGOLD
Correction...
That reference was to "Tolstoy" not "Tostoy"
uponroof
Buy rerry kwickry prease!
http://www.wellsfargonevadagold.com/content_american_advisor.htmGotta love the Japanese...a tip of the hat to these truly wise people.

"..Last Thursday in Tokyo they recorded an all time high in gold sales 340,676 contracts which equates to 10,800,000 oz more than NEM/FN/NDY produces in a year....and the move has just begun.."

link above..click on radio show

Tonight Aussies just beat it down 2+ bucks. Japan is now coming to bat.

btw-thanks Canuck for the Coxe link last night. Nice to listen to another human voice, as opposed to endless reading, (not complaining) expressing interest in gold. One of these days we'll be openly discussing gold at the grocery store, gas station and with the mailman.
sector
@roof...Japan Can't Hog ALL the News
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3PY2I8MXC&live=true&tagid=IXLI0L9Z1BCItaly's banks may face unpleasant surprises
By Fred Kapner in Milan
Published: February 12 2002 21:30 | Last Updated: February 12 2002 21:35

Italian banks are about to undertake spring cleaning and unpleasant surprises in year-end accounts are likely to be spring out of the cupboards, analysts and bankers warn.

Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, Italy's sixth largest bank, on Wednesday is expected to give an estimate of the write-off it will take for its loans in Argentina. While most analysts believe BNL will make provisions for Argentina of around E350m, the bank could decide to write off nearly double that, people familiar with the bank said. �]
+++++++++++++++++++++
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3GGGJ4MXC&live=true&tagid=IXLI0L9Z1BC

Sterling rises as inflation figures jump
By David Turner and Jennifer Hughes
Published: February 12 2002 19:45 | Last Updated: February 12 2002 19:46

Sterling rose on Tuesday against a range of currencies, as markets were left surprised by a sharp rise in underlying inflation to above the Bank of England's 2.5 per cent target.

The numbers raised expectations the Bank would be the first key central bank to raise interest rates. Short sterling fell sharply on the news.
+++++++++++++++++++
My, my, my it does seem there is a touch of nervousness across the pond and on the Continent these days.
LimitUp
Make Me Feel Good
Does anyone have a feel for what a reasonable offtake of Au and Pt by smart Japanese would be? And could there be a world shortage of 1Kg bars? Your answer,if positive,could encourage me to place an order with MK!
slingshot
Japanese buyers of Gold
Thank you

Domo Arigato. Please excuse if incorrectly spelled.
Slingshot
Cavan Man
USAGOLD
MK, The reference to Tolstoy; something to do with Anna Karenina? (BTW, WHAT a fine novel!)
Cavan Man
"Own the Gold"
My metal is up nicely while my equities founder near the shoals. The exception is an understanding with a continental friend. Thank goodness for new friendships in old countries.
Black Blade
Jumpy Japanese join gold rush
http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1020177-6094-0,00.html
With uncertainty in economy and banks, investors seek security in bullion

Snippit:

JAPAN is experiencing a gold rush as fears the banking sector may collapse drive ordinary Japanese to invest their savings in bullion, experts say. Nori Mochihara, a trader at Mitsubushi Materials, said: "Normally people would come to our shop asking for 5kg of gold. Now they produce �10m or �20m and ask: How much gold can I buy with this ?"

"Gold's popularity has always increased in times of social or financial insecurity, or during a war," Ikeda said, pointing at gold crazes after the Soviet army invaded Afghanistan in 1979, or the great Kobe earthquake of 1995. Images of golden nuggets gleaming from inside safes found in the ruins of houses destroyed by the quake, remain ingrained on people's minds, Ikeda said. But this latest gold fetish was not triggered by a natural disaster.

Incessant, "sensational" coverage by the media of Japan's deepening recession and speculation over an imminent collapse of banks, crippled by a mountain of bad loans, has sent people exchanging money for gold, he said. A government plan to cut an unlimited guarantee on certain bank deposits to �10m on April 1 has also ignited fear among the public that they may loose their savings if a bank goes bust. Gold dealers often hear this cited as a reason to buy gold because it has value anywhere in the world, said Nick Mizuki, a representative of the World Gold Council in Tokyo.


Black Blade: Gold - the ultimate "money" of last resort. I suspect that when other Asian markets reopen next week we could see even more Gold purchases. AG had said not long ago that Gold is the ultimate store of value. Too bad for the Argentines that they did not hold onto their Gold Argentinos.
USAGOLD
Cavan Man. . .
Actually the two big ones: "Karenina" and "War and Peace". .. . . . Same theme, two different attempts. . . .Fate intervenes no matter who you are -- Captains, Kings, the rest of us. . . . . .in War, Peace, Love. . . .even something as dry as business and finance. Despite our best laid plans. Both novels by the way are masterpieces. Speaking of which, have you seen "A Beautiful Mind" yet, CM?
Cavan Man
@USAGOLD
Mike: No, not yet but it is high on the list (typing as the mice run across my cieling :>(. My father has recommended it to us. Just finishing up McCullough's "John Adams" and beginning "Founding Brothers". It is almost time to take the girls to the range. I believe an early spring is upon us here. I keep you in my prayer book.....CM
Black Blade
Bonds, oil, energy signal market woes
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B42795E18%2D9D5B%2D4A1E%2DBC14%2D8C845A1AB446%7D&siteid=mktw
Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - There are increasing signs of trouble on Capitol Hill, in the oil patch and among the yield field.

Black Blade: The consumer is tapped out, bankruptcies are rising, consumer confidence is falling, and foreign investors are ever more skittish as scandal after scandal plagues the US economy. Get prepared, get outta debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, get enough cash on hand for expenses, and get a several months worth of food and basic necessities stored away.
Waverider
Voyager: The Yakuza Recession
http://www.feer.com/articles/2002/0201_17/p012region.htmlThis article may partially answer your question re: Japanese bank loans. Cheers,
Waverider
Canuck
Residential Real Estate
Does anyone have links to prices of res. prices, I can't seem to find info., especially in the frozen north.

My neighbour and I are having a little silent battle. He figures that since real estate prices have been balloning the last 3 to 4 years he is missing the boat and is deciding to move up. His thinking is that a percentage gain of a larger (more expensive) home will provide a bigger gain in equity. His thinking is correct, I assure him, if housing is going to continue to increase.

His house is the same as mine, valued at about $140,000. He has sold his and is borrowing about $40,000 to buy a $180,000 home. I punched in some numbers into an on-line mortgage calculator and found that the extra 40K works out to about $350/mth. So here's the deal, he's sinking $350 into the house of which I figure roughly 250 is interest (gone to money heaven), he's beating an (extra) 100/mth off the principle so at the end of the year he's $1200 ahead.

I, in the meantime, take the $350 per month,($4200/yr.) sink it into a tax sheltered balanced fund, save 40% on income tax ($1600), roll that into the same fund, and make 5% within the fund ($290) for a total of $6090.

Now the 2 houses appreciate 10% in a year, 18,000 for Mr. Neighbour plus his 1200 paid principle for a total of $19,200. I have $14,000 plus 6,090 from investments for $20,090.

In Canada, gains in a 'principle residence' are not taxable while I stand to be taxed some day when I withdraw from the sheltered account but the theory goes that when I do I will be in a much tax bracket.

If the 2 houses appreciate very little or let's say by nothing in a year Mr. Neighbour has beaten his mortgage down by 1,200 while I have nested 6,090, quite a difference. Even at 10% appreciation, year after year, I am staying even.

Does this theory hold any water? Do you formula wizards have any thoughts on this crazy real estate market?

Canuck.
Black Blade
Debt load a problem for firms, economy Interest costs affect earnings
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0202120292feb12.story?coll=chi%2Dbusiness%2Dhed

Snippit:

A new wave of corporate bankruptcies is reminding workers and investors that the fallout from the recession isn't over. A major problem remains with the huge debt load U.S. companies took on during the late 1990s, particularly in the telecommunications sector.

Corporations, excluding banks and other financial companies, have more than $4.9 trillion in bond and bank debt, up $1 trillion just since 1998. Now, some analysts believe high corporate debt could keep any economic recovery in low gear for the next few years.

"Unless you see a rapid turnaround in profit growth, [many companies] are going to be financially strapped" by debt, said Paul Kasriel, economist at Northern Trust Securities in Chicago. That, in turn, could limit businesses' ability to spend on new equipment or on workers.


Black Blade: Consumer debt is also at an all time record. It appears that the US could be in for a similar economic and banking collapse Japan-style. Of course Americans have that "Grasshopper" mentality after years of "Womb to Tomb" nanny government. I think that a good majority of Americans are in for an unpleasant wake up call.
Canuck
I jusr read that Prudential link
What does that mean?".....reported a net loss of $506 million, or 69 cents a share. Excluding items, the firm reported an operating profit of 18 cents a share."

Ok, so the firm lost $506 million for profit of 18 cents per share.

I looked at the clear blue sky and it was green.

Chris Powell
A report on GATA's press lunch in Washington
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1005A report on GATA's press lunch at the Washington
Press Club:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1005


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
goldquest
@ Canuck
More Enronitis, I suspect! Note the latest favorite term, "pro-forma." This seems to me, the newest terminolgy for, "cooking the books!"
Carl H
Nat. Gas Thoughts and Questions
First, thank you for all your contributions to this board. I really enjoy them and particularly appreciate your sense of humor.

I have been researching investment opportunities other than gold and silver of late. One area that I am finding quite interesting is Natural Gas in the US/Canada. I was hoping that I could share my thoughts here and get feedback from you or anyone else who would care to comment.

From what I am reading, it seems that in most of the NG producing regions, the amount of drilling needed to get a given amount of gas is going up. However, because of the low NG prices, the producers are high grading to keep the short run costs down. (As is happening with quite a few natural resources.) As the "easy" pickings are used up, the producers will either have to pay to drill deeper, or pay to drill more holes into smaller deposits. Is this perception correct?

Such high grading seems likely to me to produce at least a dip in production at the point when they can no longer keep up with the drilling with the existing stock of drilling rigs and personnel. Should such a production dip occur, it seems likely that the US government will take some socialist approach to fixing the problem. This makes me want to stay away from owning the NG or NG companies. Thoughts?

However, one way or another, they will have to drill like crazy to make up for lost time. That should prove beneficial to the drilling companies. It seems unlikely to me that the socialist hand would reach to the drilling companies since that will probably not improve the drilling efficiency. Thoughts?

Any thoughts about onshore drilling vs offshore drilling and Canadian vs US drilling?

Thanks!!
Carl H
Previous Message
Previous message was referring to Black Blade.

Thanks
Belgian
GOLD
@ Irishman - CM : Don't get confused. The distributor of Gold Bullion for investment with Euro Gold stamped on it also brings coins in circulation with no inscriptions or fiat value on it. Don't get carried away and just see this in FOA's context of preperative FREE TRADE OF PHYSICAL GOLD !
And a first small step/indication of Euro Gold. A good day to you Irishman.

@ Limit Up : No Sir, there will never be a shortage of 1 Kg bars...but...but...one day soon, y'll need truckloads of printed paper to get those glowing Kgs in your hands ! Buy your strow hat in winter. Brrrr, its freezing cold at present.

@ Ski : I'm not saying that silver want appreciate...but is there anyone rushing to get it ? Is silver still percepted as **Precious** as Gold ? I honestly don't think so.
I recently spoke to a reputated specialist in interior decoration. He stated that real silver is substituted with analog white metal amalgams and accepted as good as silver by many rich and famous. Don't know if it is relevant enough ?

@ Pizz #69841 : Glad to hear that you do see things that I think I see (smile). The cheap Gold-Oil-euro thing is indeed flying into increasing turbulence with the geo-politico situation slowly boiling. See Europ/Arab summit in Istambul (Turkey). The euro will find its analog for the previous dollar-oil-standard. UK and now France, demand a *viable* Palestinian state and strive for Peace ! The opposite stance of Europ/US on Arabian affairs is growing towards more polerazation. Underneath all emotions on the atrocities, there is the deep fundamental of OIL and the currency for that Cheap Oil ! The state of Israel was erected for a purpose ! Arabian oil related of course.

Your combination of patience and greed is a good and healthy one. Thanks to this fine forum we help each other in optimazing/timing our acts. And hopefully will be corrected by TG when we drift too far away with our assumptions.
Europ has its Enrons too. Worse...many entrepreneurs are imitating these *get rich fast* sub-culture ! Great !?
One day soon this proliferation of that "sub-culture" will result in *Sauve qui peut* (run while you can).
Voyager
Waverider - Thank You
Wow, what a fascinating article.

Loaning money to the Yakuza is like giving a lamb to a lion and then wanting it back.
Pizz
Belgian
Really appreciate your posts. I probably agree with 80-90% and still haven't studied enough to challenge that 10 to 20.

You add a lot to my perspective because Europeans have what I consider a more mature mind set. I tend to think of the British US relationship similar to a mother bear and her big, half grown unruly cub.

Scary thing over here is the cascading bankrupsies. for every one they announce, my gut tells me there are 100 getting real close.

Amonth ago I gave FOA's senario of an overnite massive gold price increase about a .001%. I'm closer to 5 to 10 % now.

We'll see.

Silver: IMO it will go up. Poor man's gold. Anyone notice that next door they were talking copper coins/pennies today?

Interesting times

Gotta go. Have to prepare for my monthly board meeting tomorrow. A little more shoor the messenger - all red ink again for the 5th straight month. Belgian - got a spare suit of armor I can borrow???

Pizz
Black Blade
RE: CarlH - Natural Gas

There was a time that natural gas was a waste product that was flared off during drilling for Oil. Now drilling for natural gas is a business of its own. Deep drilling for natural gas is uneconomic at current prices ($2.30/Mbtu) - especially in the Gulf Coast region. Much of the current production is forward sold at prices well in excess of $3.00/Mbtu.

There appears to be a substantial supply of NG if the data from the American Gas Association is to be believed. Though the AGA data has come under a lot of criticism for bogus data in the past. The problem is that the AGA represents less than 20% of the industry and the data acquired comes from less than 10% of participating members. They in turn normalize the data and pretend that their statistics represent the NG supply of all industry players.

The lower NG prices have resulted in fewer companies drilling and producing NG. This will come back to haunt many in the not too distant future. The last time drilling activity slowed down many companies simply went out of business and personnel left for other industries. That is happening again. Remember the US economy depends on "Cheap Energy". It won't ever be as cheap as it once was. The price of NG is lower because of unusually warm weather and the New Depression.

There still is drilling activity in cheaper areas such as non-conventional Coal Bed Methane for example (which now accounts for 8% of national supply). However, these wells tend to reach their peaks in about a year after production begins. This year could be quite slow, yet under the current environment of lower production and supply will decrease and a build up of demand will ensue for the coming year. The last thing the US economy needs in an increase in energy prices in the midst of a New Depression.

I currently own a few NG shares (i.e. STR), pipelines (NBP), uranium (USU) and Utilities (i.e. UCU and SO). However, I tend to be more concentrated in some Petroleum limited partnerships (i.e. APU and FGP) and trusts (i.e. DOM and BPT)). If anything, shares are cheap now and drilling will have to increase at some point to provide a steady supply of "Cheap Energy" to kick-start the economy. At this point I am not in any drillers. There are some that specialize in deep drilling offshore (i.e. RIG and DO) and land based drillers (i.e. NBR). There are also petroleum services as well (i.e. HAL and BHI).

Like unhedged Gold shares I think that onshore drillers for NG are likely to have more leverage to the PONG. Onshore is much cheaper and offshore is generally much deeper and more costly. Besides, most offshore drilling is for oil anymore. The PONG will have to rise well above $3.00/Mbtu for a long period of time for offshore NG to be economic.

Anyway, I hope that this helps. Cheers!

- Black Blade
Horatio
Barrick
year 2000 3.7 million oz produced @ 145/oz
year 2001 6.1 million oz produced @ 162/oz
Black Blade
Barrick Compared to Non-Hedgers
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?d=c&c=GG%2C+HGMCY%2C+MDG%2C+GOLD&k=c1&t=1y&s=abx&a=v&p=s&l=on&z=m&q=l
A picture is worth a thousand words. I pity the poor Barrick shareholders (not really). The fact is shareholders of profitable Non-Hedgers win against shareholders of Mega-Hedger Barrick hands down. (see link)
Spartacus
The Euro
http://www.reuters.com/markets_breaking_news_article.jhtml;jsessionid=2JWECEAHNSV4UCRBAEOCFFAKEEARMIWD?StoryID=592028&basketId=US_COMKTNEWS&marketId=1
TOKYO, Feb 13 (Reuters) - The euro is extremely undervalued against the U.S. dollar and could strengthen considerably without harming the European economy, Christian Noyer, the vice-president of the European Central Bank (ECB), said on Wednesday.

Usul
Al
http://www.mbam.qc.ca/presse/a-aluminium.htmlMax Rabbitz (02/12/02; 16:23:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 69853)
pointed out that Kaiser Aluminum filed for bankruptcy protection Tuesday.

It was considered to be as precious as gold when it was first produced in France in the mid-nineteenth century (see link). Only the use of abundant low cost energy in the electrolytic extraction method allowed its cost to be reduced to make it an essential popular commodity metal. With first world production being shut down, it (amongst other things) will quickly transmit the effects of a currency collapse or a rise in the price of oil through to general price inflation.
Belgian
About the *euro*
As a long time "don't know why" (ignorant) euro-critic...I've drastically changed my mind (conviction) on this currency and more so vis � vis the US dollar ! WHY ?

Do realize now that the US$ is a paper-tsunami, flooding all corners of the globe ! And this is to be taken literally. The present massive invasion by US under anti-terror excuse is only possible/succesfull thanks to free distribution of confetti !!! A new range of states and individuals (on top of the previous) are prostituting themselves for that same old piece of green paper to be aqcuired in abondance. Even Slobodan Milosovitch had to be BOUGHT (without -r) into the Den Haag tribunal. After Yugouslavia was literally bombed to the stone age...confetti-rains ($) have been buying every valuable tangible in that region. The Balkan Plan ! And now the eurasia offensive. Dollars....dollars...dollars, buying (?)
everything of present and future worth. This is nothing else than modern plunder.

I don't want to offend american individuals with my vieuw (as a western brother) on this radical dollar-colonialism.
But it is this unbridled dollar-hysteria that is in direct relation with our common interest in Gold.
Dollar and euro relationship has very, very, little to do with respective economic forces. This is pure divertissement from the cruel reality by the financial brotherhood. Yes it is as bad as this !

It is not the "american" as such that is hated. Not even the american lifestyle, but dollar-imperialsm that is so difficult to express by many supressed speachless victims.
A "generous" worthless dollar in exchange for precious tangibles with some illusions as a bonus.

Dear forumers, this is happening today as never before in the past 70 years ! And the reason WHY this dollar imperialism is stepped up...is the simple existance of a possible alternative : the euro-currency with a complete different philosophy behind it ! These euro-wings must be clipped at ANY cost !!! With GOLD being the euro-wings !


Artie Farkle
Furtune Mag.
To AllI just saw the cover of Fortune magazine 2002 Investment Guide in the news stand. It had a picture of a Gold Eagle that took up the whole cover. At the bottom It said something like "Guess what the countries top fund manager is predicting/recamending for 2002?
I like : )
The Invisible Hand
Are the Europeans not clipping their own wings?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1815000/1815891.stm
Belgian,
Goeiendag! Ca va?

You're saying that the reason WHY � dollar imperialism is stepped up...is the simple existence of a possible alternative : the euro-currency with a complete different philosophy behind it ! These euro-wings must be clipped at ANY cost !!! With GOLD being the euro-wings !

Here's an article that says that the news that EU finance ministers had opted not to punish Germany and Portugal for budgetary sloppiness has reinforced the notion that Europe will always put political expediency ahead of economic good sense. That he Stability and Growth Pact is now in effect a dead letter. That it is a Pointless Pact powered by politics That it would however be too straightforward just to say "good riddance" to the Pact. And that what is needed is discipline. It concludes that investors nervously holding Europe's single currency face uncertainty enough in the near future because pesky politics just adds another level of risk.

The political will about which A/TG talk so much does not yet seem to have been translated into actions supporting the euro. I wonder therefore whether the Europeans are not to blame for their own misery? Has Trail Guide perhaps Another view?
Black Blade
Japan's Rating May Be Cut Says Moody's, Citing Deflation Risk
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topsum&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APGneQBT_SmFwYW4n

Snippit:

``Deflation is the foremost challenge facing Japanese authorities,'' Moody's said in a statement that it has put the country's ``Aa3'' rating of yen-denominated debt on review for a possible downgrade. ``The large existing public sector debt, the excessive debt overhang throughout the corporate sector, the weakness of the banking system, and the country's looming demographic transition become even more daunting challenges for policy makers in a deflationary environment,'' the statement said.

Black Blade: Can you say "Depression" in Japanese? I thought you could. No small wonder that Japanese are rushing to buy Gold.
Black Blade
Drop in land gas operations dampens US drilling activity
http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=DriPr&ARTICLE_ID=135328
Snippit:

HOUSTON, Feb. 8 -- US upstream activity continued to deteriorate with a drop in land drilling for natural gas this week, said officials at Baker Hughes Inc., Houston. There were 838 rotary rigs drilling in the US this week, 15 fewer than the previous week and down from 1,137 during the same period a year ago. The number of working land rigs was down 20 to 694 during the week. But the number of rigs working inland waters increased by 3 to 21, while the number of rotary rigs drilling offshore during any part of the week was up 2 to 116 in Gulf of Mexico and 123 in all US offshore waters.

The total number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the US dropped by 16 to 693 this week, said Baker Hughes officials. Those drilling for oil were up 1 to 144, with 1 rotary rig unclassified. Of the rigs still working, 235 were doing directional drilling, 9 more than last week; and 57 were involved in horizontal drilling, a loss of 4 for the week.


Black Blade: Slowing drilling activity for oil and natural gas translates into higher prices longer term that will cap any economic recovery with increased demand.
Black Blade
Wall Street shows ignorance of history in writing off gold
http://globalarchive.ft.com/globalarchive/article.html?id=020213001855&query=gold
An interesting letter to the editor of the Financial Times.
Black Blade
Tocqueville's Hathaway mines for gold
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B4FEA00E2%2DD8FF%2D409C%2D873D%2D21189196992A%7D
Snippit:

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - John Hathaway believes it could be the decade for gold. The Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX) manager sees gold rising to between $400 and $500 an ounce, up from the current $300. "We're still in the very early stages of what could be a very big move for gold," he said.

Factors such as the deteriorating quality of credit in Argentina and Japan, the quality of reported U.S. earnings and the bear market "have been bothering the market aren't going to go away anytime soon," he said.

Black Blade: Meanwhile the Brits are working hard to keep the POG today. Gotta help Captain Tony and First Mate Eddie George look like they're not complete idiots.
Knallgold
Oil
-I read yesterday that Austrians FP� chief J�rg Haider has visited (privately) Saddam Hussein.Topic: possible cooperation of Arabic nations and Europe.Both had good words for themselves.Of course it was mentioned in the article that Bush sees Irak as "axis of evil"

Maybe Haider is the new (more right)generation of EU politicians who will succed the euro harming-incompetent-no-blue-letter-to-Germany/Portugal sozialists.Though I am still careful about Mr. Haider,it seems to me he plays somekind of a doublegame'sometimes pro EU'sometimes agains.Isn't he chief of the "Europaunion" organisation?

-EU/Islam conference this Tuesday and Wednesday (foreign ministers) in Istanbul about a better dialogue between the cultures.70 states participate.

Interesting.
Belgian
@ Invisible
Hoi far away Eurolander ! It is because Euroland in its diversity will always have tensions and frictions...that this euro-currency was differently concepted !
The growth and stability pact will always be under stress...but that's why that Precious Yellow Reserve has been build into the sheme !

Our little Belgian paradise was able to play "absurdistan" for a long time (120% Debt to GDP)...just because we had 1.300 tonnes of the Precious in *RESERVE* !!!
And a little closer to the point : How much of euro-dollars do we need to exchange for having POG exploded and the dollar crashed ???
How many oil-taps has Arabian oil to shut before the world comes to a standstill and the dollar begging ???

Yes we are impressed by military might. But there is nothing wrong with being euro-smart. Dollar and euro are as war and love (schoon h�).

Europ (EMU) NEVER critizises the US$ ! But the US$ constantly tries to clip eurowings ! Ain't this strange ?
And indeed, challenging the floods of dollars in their reserve status is not a sinecure. No false moves permitted.
But these eurowing clippers don't realize that the euro is not ment to fly skyhigh but that the euro-concept is to pusch the dollar as close to the sun as possible...Icarus !

And the dollar is smelling an euro-rat. The eagle doesn't climb closer to the sun. The sun (Gold) is coming close to the dollar (POG increase) !!! Stategy dear Invisible, strategy.

Europeans don't care about the euro versus the dollar.
One euro buys as much as one dollar. With the crucial exception of oil !!! But you know what TG's theory says about that !

GOLD the ultimate weapon in a peacefull war without atrocities and suffering !!!! Gold Power with euroflower.
Don't magnify euro-problems, whilst minimizing dollar-dramas. Groetjes.
Belgian
@ KnallGold
The private Haider/Saddam meeting is probably very insignificant ?
But yesterday's Hard Talk on BBC with Saudi wonder-prince, Al Waheed (name:?) was interesting :
The US/UK never bothered about human rights/abuses in the Arabian Oil region. Europ does and moderate Islamists are sensitive to the euro-approach on that matter and there are signs that Euro/Arabian cooperation and development can go hand in hand with an Arabian kind of democraty.

Europ must avoid any kind of Islamic terror attack on its territory !!! Of utmost importance for not being dragged into the spiral of mutual hatred. Otherwise Europ is forced "to be" with the US unconditionally.
All this has to do with trade and currencies at the end.
Political will...options and choices in the framework of competing currencies in search for value.
We are at the start of something new. New balances and arrangements. The juveniling old continent (Europ) versus the aging new continent (US).
And�ril
Silver and gold and the choice of Rich Man, Poor Man
When ever has such an easy item been so much discussed as though the outcome were somehow equivocal or in doubt?

Silver - the poor man's gold. The poor man's GOLD???

Silver is the poor man's silver. And and a poor choice at that, if his thought is that it will move far on the shoulders of the downtrodden.

Do those in lowest places not look up, perhaps MORE keenly, at the same blue sky and also at those atop moneyed towers? They hunger and they dream, in wisdom they strive to emulate!

Big Money is SMART money. (DUMB money does not grow big!)

This big smart money moves first and earliest, it does not move wrong. In quantity, only so much can move in stealth before it does leave (blaze?) a trail. This the poor and lowly follow eagerly. With smaller steps, yes, and with smaller hands that carry less, true; but follow it they always strive to do!

The big smart money yet today moves discreetly in one direction, leaving behind a faint but growing trail, littered with silver dropping early at 12:1 and now lately being cast away at 60:1 for gold. A faint glimmer that hints of the larger trashing to follow.

In the city park a shabby old man can be seen speaking much, speaking to no one, while he bends to pick remnant ends of cigarettes cast away by the hands of poor and rich alike. You know there is no gain to follow this example, despite his many words. Should it happen that he stoops for the silver, who now here shall hail him as a financial prophet??

Likely, one head only might be bowed for the sorry plight of this wretch. His own. Unaffected, the wider world of men moves briskly on as if with a single-minded purpose - to get AHEAD. Thus sweeping the masses almost uni-directionally in an economic game of follow-the-leader, follow-the-affluent. This way we are, the way it is.

Along this trail the poor man's gold is gold, gold alone, same as with the rich man; measured to each according to his means.
Henri
Belgian
I understand your points and your points are well taken.

Much as it grieves me to say so, and not in any way to stifle the beautiful creativity of your flawless and logical political perspective, but you must know that our nefarious "intelligence" agencies (how many are there now?) over here cannot think for themselves.

I am hoping you have not developed a gift of being able to see into the future. It is very strange, but a condition of our times, that things often happen that we fear, but not always for the reasons we have foreseen. Love is blind.

May God have mercy on us all.
WAC (Wide Awake Club)
@Belgian - Europ must avoid any kind of Islamic terror attack on its territory
An alleged "ISLAMIC" terror attack on European soil does not necessarily have to be conducted by islamic people. Anyone can conduct such an attack and label it as they wish - islamic, christian, fulong, fringe etc.
sector
Big Bank Losses Mount in EuroLand
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT35N9V7NXC&live=true&tagid=IXLI0L9Z1BC
Dresdner posts E424m loss as bad loans mount
By Doug Cameron in London
Published: February 13 2002 13:44 | Last Updated: February 13 2002 14:42

Allianz, the German financial services group, said on Wednesday that its Dresdner Bank unit suffered a E424m ($370m) net loss in the second half of last year as markets slumped and bad-loan charges soared, though signalled that its cost-saving plans were taking effect.

Dresdner's net profits fell to E186m in the 12 months to end December from E1.73bn a year earlier following a first half profit of E610m. The bank cut its dividend by a quarter to E0.70 a share.

The bank lifted its bad-loan charge by more than E1bn in the second half of the year, raising full-year provisions by 19 per cent to E1.89bn. It cited the impact of loans made to mid-sized US companies in the mid-1990s, a portfolio reduced by 20 per cent last year.
+++++++++++++++++++++++
These guys have been short gold in the past...thus they may even more to say as gold rises and more losses happen.
Siochain
MIA
I wish we could have FOA back...and also ORO....focused .....both would be very welcome and appreciated at this point IMO

In reading their old posts, there is much value ...and during these times as I am learning more from many fine posters here...I look also to previous (and still) giants' thoughts

C'mon back ...chat awhile...I'll spring for the coffee and donuts!
Belgian
The Nuclear Power of Gold !
@ WAC : Yep you got the message. I was a bit prudent in suggesting that any "organized" atrocity in Europ will inevitably aim at the "with us or against" warning ! Very chilling stuff. And I still am wondering how 2 (two) towers can implode vertically (90�) with unilateral (plane) impacts from a different angle ?

@ Henri : Yes Sir, am afraid that things could run out of hand. Could it be that the dollar is a bad loser ? Is that a possible reason why currency-confrontation is avoided ?
After all we (vulptures) are circling around the Cheap Arabian oil (and Caspian), aren't we ? And this at a period that economic (financial) collapse is solely avoided by massive dollar printing. Scary or overdone ?
Siochain
Bush orders...Get Saddam...with or w/o allies...just DO IT!!!
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20020213/pl/attack_iraq_dc_1.htmlWednesday February 13 7:04 AM ET
Report: Bush Decides to Oust Saddam Hussein

PHILADELPHIA (Reuters) - President Bush (news - web sites) has decided to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein (news - web sites), and has ordered the CIA (news - web sites), the Pentagon (news - web sites) and other U.S. agencies to devise plans to remove him, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported Wednesday.

The newspaper said no military strike was imminent. But it quoted unnamed U.S. officials as saying Bush had decided that Iraq's nuclear, chemical and biological weapons programs pose too great a threat to U.S. national security for Saddam to remain.

``This is not an argument about whether to get rid of Saddam Hussein. That debate is over. This is how you do it,'' the Inquirer quoted a senior Bush administration official as saying.

The newspaper said the White House was determined to act even if U.S. allies do not help, and is now waiting for government agencies to come up with a combination of military, diplomatic and covert plans aimed at achieving Saddam's ouster.

Escalating U.S. rhetoric on Iraq has alarmed Russia and America's European allies in recent weeks, while causing concern among experts about the political and human costs of a lengthy U.S. military campaign in the Middle East.

But the Inquirer said the CIA recently presented Bush with a plan to destabilize Saddam's well-entrenched regime in Baghdad, through a massive covert action campaign, sabotage, information warfare and significantly more aggressive bombing of the so-called no-fly zones over northern and southern Iraq.

The president was reportedly enthusiastic, and although it could not be determined whether he gave final approval for the plan, the CIA has begun assigning officers to the task, the newspaper reported.

Vice President Dick Cheney (news - web sites) is also expected to tell Middle East leaders about U.S. intentions to get rid of Saddam during a tour of 11 Middle Eastern nations next month, the Inquirer said.

``He's not going to beg for support,'' a senior official was quoted as saying. ``He's going to inform them that the president's decision has been made and will be carried out, and if they want some input into how and when it's carried out, now's the time for them to speak up.''

Spartacus
Inflation concerns
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Economies&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_econ&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_economies&bt=ad_position1_economies∣dle=ad_frame2_economies&s=APGpk6BOORmVkJ3Mg
New York, Feb. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve will raise the benchmark lending rate a percentage point this year to head off inflation as the economy recovers from recession, according to interest rate futures contracts.

"Traders are betting the first increase will come as early as the Fed's June 26 policy meeting, starting a reversal of last year's 11 reductions that drove the rate to a 40-year low of 1.75 percent. Rising consumer confidence, falling unemployment and a pick-up in manufacturing suggest the economy is pulling out of a slump that began in March.

The market feels as though the last few rate cuts by the Fed were excessive'said Edgar Peters, who helps manage $15 billion at PanAgora Asset Management in Boston. The last one or two need to be taken back. Four of the last year's rate cuts, a total of 1.75 percentage points, came after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks throttled consumer spending.

Traders' rate calls have been right recently. In November, interest rate futures showed they were expecting one more rate cut while many economists forecast the central bank would cut rates at least twice more. The traders were correct: The Fed stopped cutting rates after a reduction in December.

Concern about inflation is also showing up in the Treasury bond market. Since Nov. 7, the 5 3/8 percent bond maturing in 2031 has lost more than 10 points, or $100 per $1,000 security, lifting yields 67 basis points to 5.46 percent.

With annual inflation at 1.6 percent, the bond's declines have driven its inflation-adjusted yield up 20 basis points to 3.86 percent, suggesting investors are demanding a bigger cushion to protect against quickening inflation.

Concerns about faster inflation, which erodes the value of fixed-return investments, is driving expectations for rate increases, said John Nyhoff, chief economist and senior vice president at Tokyo-Mitsubishi Futures Inc. in Chicago.

Traders are more concerned about growth implications going forward and, ultimately, the consequences of inflation related to those."

Spartacus: Traders want a rate hike. But will they get it? I don�t think so..
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"In light of the substantial shift in fundamentals and the extreme lag in the recognition of these changes, the magnitude of the market adjustment is likely to be surprising. Whether the price adjustment occurs quickly or evolves over several years, the outcome will be a dollar gold price that is comfortably within four-digit territory. " John Hathaway, DeTocqueville Funds

Gold Market Brief (2/13/02). . . . . . . Gold continued to gather itself at lower levels around the $300 mark after the strong early February run-up to 28-month highs. Those who thought the market might come off hard this week with much of Asia celebrating the lunar new year are having to recalibrate. If you look back over the past several weeks, though physical demand has remained strong in the Pacific Rim and China, the price rises have actually occurred for the most part during New York trading. True to form gold is struggling to go positive in New York today after a rocky ride overnight.

OsterDowJones quotes one London-based dealer as saying, "Of course we were going to see a correction after last week's rally but the momentum hasn't been lost and I still feel the next few weeks will see us climbing up to $320 a troy ounce."

And then there's this interesting summary published by Dow Jones Tokyo:

"A disgraced energy giant and a reformed hedger could serve as the catalysts that will keep gold prices well above the key $300 an ounce mark for the next few months, said a precious metals analyst with one of Japan's largest commodities houses. Last week, the price of gold surged past the $300 mark for the first time in two years and many have attributed this sudden interest in bullion to a "flight from risk" mentality following the Enron Corp. debacle. 'The Enron affair is definitely playing a big role on the gold market right now,' said this Tokyo-based analyst. 'The scandal has called into question the accounting procedures employed by U.S. corporations, and so it isn't surprising that people are switching from paper assets to hard assets like gold.'"

The reformed hedger mentioned is AngloGold which will reduce its hedge book from a 16 million to 10 million ounces during 2002. Beyond that the same Japanese analysts quoted above adds this tidbit on Normandy -- another former hedger:
"Normandy has been known for regularly taking big hedging positions. But I think the management from Newmont will keep in place its policies against hedging and so the merged company won't be eager to hedge at all. This will serve as another bullish factor for the market."

That's it for now. I've updated Short & Sweet. Includes a new bit of irreverence from our friend, Mr. Stein.

Our regulars should scroll past the Note immediately following. New readers, however, might gain from this short analyis of prevailing market conditions. (New readers must register to read, please go to the links mentioned above.)

Have a good day, my fellow goldmeisters.

Spartacus
Gold
http://www.investavenue.com/article.html?ID=4013Why buy gold when you could buy dollar-denominated assets?

"But what if the Japanese believed that Alan Greenspan had a strong incentive to promote higher US inflation? After all the "honest" or inflation-adjusted return on overnight money in the US has shrunk almost to nothing in the past year. With both corporate and household debt burdens high in the US and with congressional and senate elections coming up in November, the Fed will be under tremendous political pressure to keep the fed funds rate low in order to sow the seeds of future inflation. Bear in mind, the US is the largest debtor nation in the world and that all of its debt is denominated in US dollars. Debtors love inflation and the US central bank can accommodate US debtors' ardor. Maybe this is why Mrs. Watanabe is buying gold. Perhaps Mrs. Jones should ask her husband for some 14k trinkets - as an investment -- this Valentine's Day."



uponroof
GATA, Investigative Reporting and a $1.4 million Payday
http://www.nypost.com/business/kelly.htmWell Enron is now paying off for the reporters who looked into off balance reporting and suspicious activity...

Which brings me to POG...

Wonder what some smart reporter, that does a little digging, could ink for that expose?
********


$1.4M FORTUNE FOR ENRON BOOK

By KEITH J. KELLY

REPORTER HITS BIG TIME:
Fortune's Bethany McLean will collaborate on a book about Enron.

February 13, 2002 -- FORTUNE senior writers Bethany McLean and Peter Elkind have snagged a $1.4 million advance to write about the widening Enron scandal for Penguin Putnam's new Portfolio imprint.

As part of the deal, Fortune's Executive Editor Joe Nocera will work with the two on the project.

None of the trio will be taking a book leave, according to a Fortune spokeswoman, and the magazine will be compensated as part of the deal.

McLean is credited with being one of the first reporters to question the off-balance-sheet deals of Enron back in the March 6, 2001, issue, which hit last February. She has emerged as an overnight celebrity on the Enron beat in recent weeks. Dallas-based Elkind is a veteran investigative writer for Fortune who also penned the 1989 non-fiction book "The Death Shift," about a baby killing nurse.

The deal is one of the biggest auctions in the book world since the Sept. 11 attacks - but far from the only Enron proposal making the rounds.

Doubleday/Broadway is paying an estimated $500,000 for its Enron book to Texas Monthly writer Mimi Schwartz. She is teaming up with an "undisclosed collaborator" - widely believed to be Enron top exec turned whistleblower Sharon Watkins.

At least four other proposals are said to be making the rounds, leading some industry sources to speculate that there may already be too many in the pipeline. Adrian Zackheim, publisher of Penguin Putnam's Portfolio imprint, which acquired the book from the Fortune trio, said, "Like Watergate, the Enron collapse will beget a compelling journalistic narrative that breaks through the chatter and defines the story . . . There may well be books in the future from Enron participants, like there were books from Dean, Haldeman, Erlichman, and the rest. But this is unquestionably THE big breakthrough book, the book we most wanted to publish."
********


Operative
A most welcome pause...
The past two years have found both my days and nights filled with the ever pressing challenge, "can you not follow in the footsteps of giants". With the daily wisdom garnered from the thoughtfull opinions of this web site and a copy of Another's Trail Guide, I have attempted to traverse the path. Today, I pause to write a Thank You to the members of this forum. Many have been the moments when I was able to gain insight and wisdom for my journey. A word of heart felt apprecitation also goes out to the owner/operater of this web site. A small order for your wares is soon forthcoming, my fear of "mail order" overcome by your generous hosting of this site. In two years I have removed myself from the debt game, and while it required some extra effort and sacrifice I now enjoy a peace offered by this freedom. To Another, I say Thank You for the education. At first your trail was difficult, hard to follow at times. Perhaps it was my lack of understanding, to be sure there were times of doubt. The recent events and times have found the trail easier to follow, the footprints appearing more defined, less often filled with sand. In recent weeks not only have the footprints been easy to see, they are fresh, with the markings of bootprints clearly visible. Today I reflect, rest and restablish my bearings. Tomorrow with increased focus and determination I will continue to follow the footprints.

Operative
Cavan Man
Here's the retail sales scoop (note gasoline @ + 5.1%)
Wednesday February 13 10:27 AM ET

Retail Sales Excluding Cars Up in January
By Jonathan Nicholson

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales slipped modestly in January as auto sales fell from lofty December levels, but sales aside from cars posted their biggest surge since March 2000, aided by higher prices at the gas pump, the Commerce Department reported on Wednesday.

Retail sales dipped 0.2 percent overall in January, but were up a larger-than-expected 1.2 percent outside the automotive sector, the department said.

The strength in purchases aside from car sales, which had been expected to weaken as automakers cut back on financing incentives, bodes well for an economy many analysts believe is recovering from recession.

Sales in December were revised upward to a 0.2 percent rise overall and a 0.7 percent gain excluding cars. The department had previously reported declines of 0.1 percent in both categories.

While gains were seen in many retailing sectors in January, the overall number was boosted by a 5.1 percent increase in gasoline station sales, largely the result of higher prices at the pump. Excluding gasoline, retail sales were actually down 0.6 percent in the month.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected sales to fall 0.3 percent overall in January, but rise by 0.4 percent when autos were excluded.

Jade Zelnik, an economist with Greenwich Capital Markets, said the January report should soothe concerns the economy could fall back into recession if consumers falter.

``The January data, along with the revisions, refute the notion that the consumer has been merely plodding along,'' he said in a research note to clients.

``This greatly enhances the odds that a sustainable economic recovery is in the process of emerging.''

Economists watch retail sales closely, as consumer spending on goods and services makes up two-thirds of economic activity. The resilient stance of consumers, who continued to spend moderately in the fourth quarter, offset weak investment by businesses in new plants and equipment and fueled an unexpected rise in U.S. gross domestic product, which increased at a 0.2 percent annual rate.

With signs the recession that began in March has bottomed out, policymakers at the Federal Reserve have taken a more cautious stance on interest rates. After cutting rates 11 times to 40-year lows in 2001, the Fed held rates steady at its January meeting.

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan is to offer an updated assessment of the economy's health when he appears before a Capitol Hill panel later this month to deliver the central bank's twice-a-year report to Congress.

Tim O'Neill, chief economist at Bank of Montreal/Harris Bank in Toronto, said the January retail report was ``better than expected, but on balance not dramatically better.''

Within January's report, the gain in gas station sales was the largest since a 5.5 percent increase in February 2000. Purchases at department stores were up 2.0 percent and sales of building materials and garden equipment were up 2.9 percent.

Offsetting those gains was a 4.3 percent drop in auto dealer sales, the biggest decline since September, when attacks on New York and Washington depressed all retail activity dramatically. Sales at bars and restaurants were off by 2.0 percent in January.

WAC (Wide Awake Club)
Venezuela's currency in freefall - down 25% today
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1818000/1818558.stmVenezuela's currency has plummeted almost 25% to about 990 bolivars to the dollar after the government scrapped five-year-old exchange rate controls.

Cavan Man
Retail Sales Numbers Report
A classical education uses the "TRIVIUM" method or organization. This consists essentially of presenting much factual information in the "grammar" stage (K-4); next, logical organization of the facts is taught (interpretive skills and reasoning etc.); lastly, in the 8-12 grade stage, rhetoric is taught. The trivium is no longer used in the US system (public anyway). Today, we do not teach with a language based curriculum but rather, with an image based curriculum. My point is that due to the overall poor quality of the education product sold in this country, the citizenry, individually and collectively, are no longer able to think critically. With the media thinking for them vis a vis sound bytes and "headline news", responsibility and authority for information comprehension are transferred to the media. Consequently, we experience intellectual death in addition to making very poor investment decisions. This problem is present on a large scale in private educational institutions as well.
Black Blade
Profitless prosperity
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B9DA21BAF%2DEDF6%2D485C%2DB0B7%2DEEE6611CDCB9%7D&siteid=mktw
Snippit:

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- There is good news and bad news about January's retail sales. The good news is that lots of customers apparently did lots of buying. The bad news is that retailers had to slash prices fiercely to generate these sales.


Black Blade: This does not look like much of a recovery to me. As long as Wall Street spins the data and ignores the danger signs, it should be easy to suck in the masses. The US equities markets have surged higher the last three trading sessions on very light volume. In other words - most investors are content to sit this one out. When investors look at the "bottom line" over the next couple of "earnings seasons" they will very likely get frustrated and bail out of the markets en masse. More accounting problems are coming to light and the debt load for corporations and consumers is growing. In light of currency problems around the World such as in Argentina, Japan, and now Venezuela and soon Brazil, (even China may devalue) we should see more buying of hard assets like Gold and Silver.
sector
Japan Bonds Reel Under Moody's Rating Drop
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3U28ZGNXC&live=true&tagid=IXLI0L9Z1BC
Japanese bond sell-off follows Moody's warning
By Bayan Rahman in Tokyo
Published: February 13 2002 18:03 | Last Updated: February 13 2002 18:08

Foreign investors last month sold a net �1,236bn of Japanese bonds, seven times the amount in December and a level not seen since June 1999. The sell-off reflected fears about a possible downgrade of Japan's rating, deflation, and the banks' non-performing loans (NPL) problem.

That anxiety was heightened on Wednesday after Moody's Investors Service warned it was reviewing Japan's rating with a view to downgrading it by as much as two notches to A2, possibly as early as next month.

A two-notch downgrade would knock Japan out of the G7 league and place it at the same level as Latvia and Greece, and below Botswana and the Bahamas.

This would lead some foreign fund managers to preclude JGBs from their portfolios. Under the rules of the Bank for International Settlements rules, to be implemented in 2005, single-A rated bonds will carry a 20 per cent risk weighting, meaning that banks will have to set aside reserves to cover the risk of these assets. This would not affect domestic banks.

The example of Italy nine years ago, bodes ill for a swift recovery by Japan from single A status. Italy was the last G7 country whose domestic rating fell to single A, in 1993. It took Italy more than three years to regain its Aa rating.

Furthermore, Moody's warned that the pace of rating reviews and changes could pick up. "Since we last downgraded (to Aa3) in December the situation has deteriorated and the pace of deterioration, from the point of view of credit worthiness, has accelerated," said Vincent Truglia, co-head of sovereign risk at Moody's.
++++++++++++++++++++
Japan continues to sink lower toward Eddie George's[BOE] "Abyss".
Henri
Operative
I wish you joy in your newfound freedom and restful nights!
Congratulations on your perseverance and fortitude. The footsteps ARE much cleare when you are out from under the bankers shadow.
sector
Bad News for Microsoft and the Other ISO Surfers
http://www.RiskNews.net/
Senators move to block preferential employee stock options tax treatment

13 February - Four US senators will today introduce a new bill, the 'Ending the Double Standard for Stock Options Act', that will require US corporations to treat employee stock options in the same way in both their tax returns and financial statements.
The bill comes in reaction to a finding last month by a Washington-based tax policy group � Citizens for Tax Justice � that Enron avoided paying $625 million in taxes between 1996 and 2000 through the use of employee stock options and other preferential tax accounting devices.

The bill's sponsors are Democratic senators Carl Levin of Michigan and Dick Durbin of Illinois, and Republican senators John McCain of Arizona and Peter Fitzgerald of Illinois.

According to senator Levin's office, US corporations currently enjoy an accounting 'double standard', in which they can deduct the expense of the difference between the stock option excercise price and the underlying stock at the date of excercise on their tax returns, without reporting the expense on their financial statements.

Under the new bill, stock option tax deductions would be limited to stock option expenses reported on financial statements.

The new bill proposes no changes in accounting standards for stock options. That issue is currently under review by the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB), which is scheduled to release an exposure draft on the matter in Q4 2002. In a September meeting, the IASB agreed in principle that stock options issued for employee compensation and as payment to other firms should be recognised as expenses on a company's financial statements. Since September, the IASB has been focusing on how to measure stock option fair values.
Gallagher Polyn
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
A boat load of high tech wizards manipulated balance sheets with this loophole including Microsoft and IBM.

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Ag Mountain
Thanks Anduril!
Your message 69907 was brilliant in its clarity! I'll be changing my ways thanks to a new understanding gained from your post. Lots of heavy silver will soon be left behind as I lighten my load for gold instead!!!!
Boilermaker
Sword Rattling
This is my first post on this forum after a long time of lurking and learning. I'm not a newbie goldbug, started in 1987 accumulating and now fully committed to real and shiny assets.
I've got some questions that you might help me with.
Have any of you on this forum considered a possible connection with the Bush administration's announced attack on the Iraqi regime and the US monetary/economic meltdown that most of us expect? Could MBA Bush see (or have been told about) the incredible risk posed to our economy by decades of monetary abuse, corruption and debt ala the Japanese example? Could Bush have seen the dual purpose of a legitimate but preemptive war with Iraq as a way to ameliorate the coming depression? It seems to me that a larger war footing enables the US to take extreme measures to deal with emergencies whether they be terrorist, military or ecomomic. Does this sound plausible?

I have been a Bush supporter and believe he is on the right course but I would prefer to see him deal with each problem, Iraq and the economy, on an individual basis. Tell us the real story behind the economy and what's needed to fix it and go after Saddam if he's a real threat.

Many thanks for all of the wonderful learning opportunities that appear every day on this forum.
Bulldog
Boilermaker
WelcomeI think anything is plausible. As a foreigner, I don't think much of Dubya, but I didn't think much of his predecessor, Wild Bill.
Can you imagine Dubya's surprise when he found out that there really wasn't any surplus. He hasn't been in office long enough to know what you know simply by lurking on this chat line not enough hours in the day to take in all the information. He's a big player, but does what he is told.
Our boys at war deflect attention from the ills of our society.
When an ex-partner of junk bond king Mike Milliken can incorporate Global Crossing in 1997, give political contributions of only $34,000 in 1998 and then "plasters Washington with money thereafter..." makes oodles of $
and then by 2002 goes bankrupt, where does it start. I think the state has to jail some of these folks at some point. It really isn't possible because our elected representatives have been funded by the culprits.
Perhaps you will share other views with us in the future.
Belgian
@ Boilermaker / All
Siochain's Bush/Saddam link is another piece of shocking rhetoric. This additional War-language went already that far that no anti-climax (peace-settlement) is possible anymore.
The WTC-atrocity is most probably (unfortunately) the start and pretext of a dis-proportionate retaliation program with much more content than "bringing to justice" alone ! The atrocities inflicted on americans is being "framed" with a bizar culture (cultivation) of convenient revenge (heroism).

There is a reason, a plan and a program. A multitude of reasons, different plans and flexible programs. All wars have similar motivations and variable outcomes. This war is a continuation of the interrupted/unfinished 1990 Gulf war.
The Israel/Palestine Un-will is evidence for desired escalation. The base-building in Pakistan is a fulcrum.
US/Russian compromis functions as decompression...etc.

The empire (US) is on the move ! Soon we will find out how drastically it will advance. A substituting war-economy as a classic reminder of history. An attack of Irak (Jemen-?) is the confirmation of an encircling maneuver of Saudi Arabia.

Oil - Gold - the dollar/euro - stockmarkets - global economy ...will come under "boiling" stress (cfr. Gulf war). Human species can't live too long with peace/harmony and prosperity. Will this escalate in WW-III or in another contained territorial conquest for the US/UK empire ?
Will the winner distribute "cheap" oil as compensation to the passive allies (Europ/China/Japan) ?

All this plausible un-certainties can only be countered with Physical Gold in Possession as a refuge and self-protection for the unknown.

Boilermaker : I'm very, very pessimistic on the nearby future. And a second invasion of Irak will certainly be one step too far. Europ doesn't feel threathened by Irak or any other Arabian state. This to answer eventual questions on "alternatives" to war. Two WW within 30 years is more than enough. Regards.
Pizz
Boilermaker
Re: Bush and the economy: Yes, he knows. So does every Chairman and CEO. The economy/financial data is how they measure success or failure. As loose and agressive as all financial reporting is, there is still a "method to the maddness" and all heads of state/companies are "fully" informed of the economic issues facing their organizations.


War:
Based upon what we here know and suspect, i.e. a deflationary depression, this country has had only one modern day example (the 30's) and it took WWII to pull us out of that one. You can formulate your own conclusion as to Mr. Bush's motives for the war, but my guess is that the primary purpose of it originally was to secure more oil in the Caspian so as to lessen the ME's threat of an embargo/blackmail to our economy. Economic necessity for jump starting our economy will be one benefit for further escalation of a task that was probably going to have to be done anyway IMHO.

As for Bush to be honest about the state of the economy?

Imagine you own a company with many thousands of people employed. Your company is in trouble and if business does not improve, you may have to declare bankrupsy in 6 months. If you let your employees, therefore customers, suppliers, etc. know, it will be a self-fulfulling prophesy, as all your good employees leave, your customers find new suppliers, and your vendors/banks cut off credit.

Now, do you tell everyone the truth, or keep your mouth shut and try to fix it?

Pizz
TownCrier
"Lightning in the night" and the irresistible power of market forces, voters
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020213/n13358490_1.htmlThese reconstructed excerpts from today's Reuters article will help reinforce some old points being made here at the forum.

-----------NEW YORK, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Standard & Poor's welcomed Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's move to float the bolivar currency...

...The South American petroleum exporter has been hurting for cash since oil prices have drifted lower in recent months. Adding to the angst, investors have shied from Venezuela amid growing discontent over the president's authoritarian style and leftist agenda....

...Chavez offered an olive branch to his foes on Tuesday.

"Let's hope that I can sheathe my sword," the firebrand paratrooper-turned-president said in an unusual conciliatory televised speech in which he announced new economic initiatives....

...Then came Chavez's surprise announcement on Tuesday that Venezuela would float the bolivar, abandoning one of the last foreign exchange band systems in Latin America, and reduce state spending by more than one fifth....

...In its first day as a free-floating currency, Venezuela's bolivar plunged 19 percent on Wednesday, to end at 980.5 per dollar.-------------------

When they got out of bed this morning, I'll bet the real savers in Venezuela were very glad they had been saving gold and not bolivars. The recommendation extends to everyone living anywhere that paper money is found. (i.e., everywhere.) A sudden currency adjustment need not diminish the purchasing power of your accumulated wealth if your wealth is indeed real, such as gold.

Standard & Poor's lead Venezuela analyst, Graciana del Castillo, said of the development, "If the president announces these economic measures but is not willing to have a dialogue with the opposition, the process is going to be very difficult. We know that in order to adopt tough economic measures the government needs support from the population."

The post-Bretton Woods realignments in the international monetary system continue, moving toward a more stable ***market-based*** phenomenon of floating paper, flying gold.

R.
Trapper
AG Mountian
I also read Andruil's post but I think he missed his own point. Silver through much of history setted at 16 oz silver to buy 1 oz. gold. Andruil is right that that ratio is way out of balance today and means that gold is way over priced or silver is way underpriced. I vote the latter. Now who recently bought 25% of the above ground silver....oh yes Warren Buffet! I think we could all classify him as a rich man. Even our host is selling silver. I feel that old silver coins have a very good chance in any goverment decree making gold illegal, and the premuim is almost at melt for a while. My choice is to own some of both at 16-1. Live small.
RJ
Canuck
Rising stockmarkets
I see the Venezuela SM had a great day:

Venezuela IBC ^IBC 1:45pm 6692.45 +622.36 +10.25% Charts


Now we see the Nikkei doing the same. Is this the same phenomona that we saw in Argentina just before collapse?
slingshot
Trapper Msg# 69934
16-1 ratioUsing the same plan.
Slingshot
Belgian
Wars >> dollars >> Gold
Tlaga J.N. 1997 "We have been had " :
WWII - It may come across as a shock to many americans, but it is a documented fact that the first wave of major purchases of US monetary Gold by foreign central banks was financed with....Marshall Plan dollars (=US$ confetti distributed to rebuild war devastated Europ)

US Gold reserves at Fort Knox reached their all time peak on sept.21 - 1949 (Kondratieff-cycle-start)with 21.800 tonnes at 35$/ounce. By june 30 - 1973 only 8.200 tonnes remained, while Gold stock of Germany, Switzerland, France, Italy, Holland, Belgium, England and Japan reached 15.600 tonnes (Thanks).

The present acceleration in confetti production/printing, Gold suppression (shifts-?) and possible war (WWIII) is frightening similar to what already happened before (WW-I and II). The dollars spend on the Gulf war were recuperated/compensated, with Special Kuwaiti/Saudi cheap oil deals. Will it work a second time ? Even a Gold deal was in play. Kuwaiti 80 tonnes for London (1999-WA-abyss).
How much billions of dollars has Bush received recently for warfare with popular pay rise for soldiers included ?

A contracting economy with less tax to collect and more spending, together with a POO slowly increasing ! Brrrrr.
Chris Powell
GATA conference on C-SPAN2 at 4 a.m. Thursday
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1006C-SPAN2 has scheduled for 4 a.m. Eastern time
Thursday a broadcast of GATA's Washington
conference Tuesday.

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1006


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
USAGOLD
Randy. . ..
Great comment. . ..

Floating paper. Flying gold. Opposing sides of the same coin!
slingshot
Belgian Msg# 69937
War,Gold, DollarsYou have presented some chilling statements.

I think that Bush is not getting any money from other nations to go this route on the war on terrorism. He is just going to print what he needs. Caspian oil to offset Saudi oil could be a part of his plan for the recovery of the economy but I think it is bigger than that. Consider TPTB are buying gold at a very low price and they will have their hands in the oil market any way this plays out. The destruction of the world economy will play the most important part for it effectively stops the feeding of mankind. How do you feed your family when you have no money in the bank. Or your money is worthless. Or just simply you need so much money to buy food.
I do not like the looks of it also. Just can not put my finger on it. Belgian, can you imagine food ration cards?
You may find me a bit paranoid, but I tell you something stinks. Maybe people do not think BIG for they would be afraid of what they see. Gold will be a big part in the game and having some may be wise. We shall see, Yes?

Slingshot
Black Blade
Market Wrap Up - Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

Pro Forma Economics

This new economic reporting is a lot like the way earnings are reported by the financial media and hyped by Wall Street. By taking out write-offs, big expenses and big bath charges or investment losses, earnings were actually up. So we now have pro forma economic reports. Today, if the numbers don't look good, take out what doesn't look good and rearrange the report to fit the spin. During the fourth quarter when auto sales rose due to zero-percent financing, we counted auto sales in retail reports because they made the numbers look good. Now when auto sales go down, we remove them from the report to make retail sales look better. That way we always have reports that portray a sunny disposition for the financial markets.

Black Blade: The use of Pro Forma is getting out of hand in face of the accounting scandals that are pervasive on Wall Street. Pro Forma earnings for PE ratio calculations make even the most basis economic data suspect. The actual true value of the market indices (based on historical PE averages) if true net earnings as of today's close were to be used would be: DOW at 4823; NASDAQ at 420; and S&P 500 at 412. The US equities markets are grossly overvalued. Many investors are being fattened up for the kill. Earnings are falling hard and fast for most equities. It will get very ugly. Wait until the foreign investors bail out and take their cash back home (especially Japan). All the spin and Pro Forma in the World won't disguise the markets ugly ducklings.

A very good article well worth reading (see link)
R Powell
Anduril's gold, but not silver
Your 69907 post mentioned that the POS vs POG ratio now stands at 60 to 1. Such historical ratios have always been suspect, I believe, when used with gold which for years had a "fixed" price. However, 60 to 1 is now with us. Does anyone know what the estimated ratio of gold to silver is based upon each one's aboundance in nature?
I was struck with your annoyance or hostility toward silver especially with you're demeaning it's "Poor man's gold" nickname. Nothing else of substance is offered other than the 60/1 ratio but I suspect you have more reasons for your disdain of silver. I'm curious of all things golden or silver. May I ask what these reasons might be?
Thanks
Rich
R Powell
GATA, another viewing time??
Cousin Chris, does C-Span have any other scheduled times for airing? Maybe a repeat over the weekend, during hours when I'm alive?
Thanks for all the excellent efforts! Hopefully, after the world becomes knowledgeable and the good fight has been fought and won, you may use those editing talents you possess to compile a comprehensive accounting of your journey.
Rich
Black Blade
Uranium Fuel Maker USEC to Cut Jobs
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/020213/usec_job_cuts_2.html
Snippit:

Uranium Fuel Maker USEC to Cut 440 Jobs at Ohio Plant As It Consolidates Shipping Operations

Black Blade: Glowing "Bones" to the growing "Bone Pile".
Black Blade
Herman Miller Announces Job Cuts
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/020213/herman_miller_job_cuts_1.html
Another Round of Job Cuts at Southwest Michigan Furniture Maker

Snippit:

ZEELAND, Mich. (AP) -- The latest round of job cuts at furniture maker Herman Miller brings to 2,800 the number of positions eliminated in a just more than a year.

Black Blade: Business is bad - so off to the "Bone Pile".
Black Blade
Dana Corp. to Cut 11,000 Jobs
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020213/ap_on_bi_ge/earns_dana_2
Snippit:

TOLEDO, Ohio - Dana Corp. on Wednesday reported a wider $298 million loss for the fourth quarter as the auto parts maker continues to implement a restructuring plan that includes the elimination of 11,000 jobs.

Black Blade: Looks ugly as thousands are sent off to the growing "Bone Pile". Definitely going to get worse. Get outta debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, get a food storage and basic goods program started, and have enough cash on hand for several months expenses.
USAGOLD
CB2. . .The New York Yankees of Ski Competition
CB. . .They just ran a profile on Bode Miller (they're airing the combined). It seems that Bode and a fellow American skier spent much time in the Austrian Alps with the "hardy" Austrians as they described your countrymen. Bode of course was hoping something might rub off (which apparently something has). They called the Austrians the New York Yankees of ski competition -- the relevance of which you might recall from your Wall Street days. Anyway, I can see why you told me to keep an eye on Bode having just made the down hill run in a fashion only "One-Ski" Rahlves might appreciate. I can also see what's going on between Bode and Austria -- it seems your countrymen have adopted him as one of their own. What a kick! Enjoying the skiing and thought you might appreciate the story. Looks like the Norwegians are going to be tough in the combined with Austria making the challenge. . . . .
Black Blade
NYC Mayor Bloomberg to Cut 7,000 Jobs
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020213/ap_on_re_us/new_york_mayor_budget_2
Snippit:

NEW YORK (AP) - Mayor Michael Bloomberg's new spending plan for the city includes cuts of $1.8 billion and the elimination of 7,000 jobs, about a sixth of those in the police force.

Black Blade: Open season in NYC? Blue "Bones" off to the "Bone Pile". That's what happens when not enough parking tickets aren't given out - loss of revenue.
USAGOLD
Welcome. . ..
Want to roll out the welcome mat for all the new people posting of late. . . . Enjoy seeing the new faces, new viewpoints. Anybody up for a price guessing contest??

We'll need a proposal on this and some seconds.

The good Wizard is waiting in the wings. If we get general approval for a contest, we'll let the Wiz announce the rules. Maybe shoot for the close next Friday??

What's the consensus?
Black Blade
Venezuela Currency Falls 19 Percent
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020214/ap_on_bi_ge/venezuela_economy_34
Snippit:

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) - Venezuela's currency plunged against the dollar Wednesday as President Hugo Chavez abandoned exchange controls to try to stem capital flight and restore investor confidence in the ailing economy.

The bolivar fell by 19 percent, closing at 980.50 to the dollar compared to 792.50 on Friday, the last trading day. Economists have said the bolivar was overvalued by as much as 30 percent.


Black Blade: Just as I and others speculated on last week. And the Brazilian Real looks to be next on the chopping block. Already Ecuador has had problems and they decided to "dollarize" just as Panama did. There are also rumblings out of Peru and Colombia that they may devalue as well. For the people's sake, I hope they have Gold or Silver. "Interesting Times"
Mr Gresham
Siochain (02/13/02; 09:01:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 69911)
Second that, Siochain. We make a circle here, as everyone contributes their best. They, FOA and ORO, are two of the strong links in our chain, and they belong with us. The combination of EACH of us learning more day by day, AND events moving forward, makes their absence regrettable. The opportunity to share these experiences together, once lost, might not be recoverable.

Let a clarion sound from the Tower, seeking their return. Better yet, put up a QUESTIONS page to post our own wonderings, after reading their deep contributions. I know I have many...