USAGOLD Discussion - February 2002

Strad Master

(02/06/2002; 00:37:08 MDT - Msg ID: 69427)

Illuminating the Enron debacle.

All: Since most of us here at this esteemed forum are slightly ahead of the financial curve, the information in the following article should come as no surprise. (I know nothing about the author but he certainly seems to be very well informed.) I've not seen it all put so succincly before. Despite being rather long, it is a good and important read. It will be interesting and a little disconcerting to watch the Enron execs be trotted out to the gallows when all they were doing was what everyone else in the biz was doing. It's long been my suspicion that Enron is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to inflated stock prices, and its collapse will make a very convenient scapegoat when the larger house of cards implodes.

The Enron Game

When Texas cowboys ruled television and the movies, a common plot concerned
stampedes triggered by the scent of water wafting over the thirsty herd. O, the
pained voice of the hapless director charged to evoke the shift of a bovine multitude
from dehydrated indifference to self-destructive hysteria: "Is this kind of �character
development� they expect of me?" Today, such a passage to bovine panic could be
modeled on reaction of the media and business and political commentators to the
Enron debacle.

Could it be � O heresy of heresies! � that Enron did not fail because of fraud? Could
it be that the worst its accountants, attorneys and related professionals � and
perhaps even its officers and directors � are guilty of is lack of imagination or
maybe mere negligence? It's very hard to say from most of the media coverage. But,
unfortunately for the orthodox, the most likely outcome is that exactly this heresy is
the truth.

Let me go further and hypothesize an entirely different scenario for Enron's failure,
which I will defend below:

1.Enron's stock price soared because it had a fashionable business plan, not
because it had earnings. So the alleged earnings-boosting schemes are mostly
irrelevant to explaining why the stock soared. Simply put, for a long time the stock
market did not care about profit where companies in Enron's categories,
e-commerce and broadband, were concerned.

2. Enron's financial statements were not opaque enough to fool any serious
financial analyst who cared about what they might conceal. True, the financial
statements were not easy to read � even for professionals. But many professionals
were perfectly well aware that the notes in Enron's financials were red flags as
possible earnings holes � if you were the odd person who cared about earnings for
e-commerce and broadband companies. There were always Enron skeptics, those
skeptics were not silenced, and their views were known and ignored by the same
analysts now claiming Enron and Arthur Andersen fooled them. "[T]]he company
was a master of obfuscation in its financial statements� But a determined
investor looking closely at its financial statements would have found that even in
the California power crisis, when energy costs were in the stratosphere and
profits should have rolled in, Enron was earning only one-half of 1 percent on its
sales." How 287 Turned Into 7: Lessons in Fuzzy Math, By Gretchen Morgenson,
NYT January 20, 2002. (emphasis supplied).

3. When the stock market fell out of love with e-commerce and broadband, Enron's
stock price fell. Also, the people concerned with both debt and equities on Wall
Street began to again care about whether even e-commerce and broadband
companies had earnings. So they started looking at those financial notes. Enron's
credit rating was supported by its high stock price and by the lack of interest in its
earnings, even by creditors. So when the stock price fell and the relevance of
earnings rose, Enron's credit was impaired.

4. Unlike other e-commerce and broadband companies, Enron needed a high
credit rating to continue much of its businesses � especially trading and derivatives
investing. So, while, say, e-Toys, could just waste away until its equity proceeds
were consumed, Enron did not have that luxury. It's fall had to be more spectacular.

5. Therefore, failure and bankruptcy.

Not a pretty picture, and plenty of villains. But notice that the villains aren't the same
as the ones in the "fraud" scenario. In my scenario, the villains are the stock
analysts, journalists, hedge fund managers, bankers and investors who drove the
stock price up and ignored the need for earnings to support a top corporate credit
rating � the same people who drove up the stock price for, and provided credit to, all
those OTHER e-commerce and broadband companies.

What about all those "special purpose companies," "offshore partnership"
transactions and other devices? I continue my heresy; here I stand, I can say no
other! The bulk of Wall Street's financial analysts following Enron either knew about
the "special purpose companies," "offshore partnership" transactions and any other
devices or knew that they could find out but didn't care to do so. For example, a
not-often-cited paragraph in the so-called "whistleblower" letter of Sharren Watkins
puts it this way: "The related party footnote tries to explain these transactions. Don't
you think that several interested companies, be they stock analysts, journalists,
hedge fund managers, etc., [have] their smartest people � poring over that footnote
disclosure right now? I can just hear the discussions � �it looks like they booked a
$500 million gain from this related party company and I think, from all the
undecipherable half-page on Enron's contingent contributions to this related party
entity, I think the related party entity is capitalized with Enron stock.�" So this "whistle
blower" letter says that a smart analyst could see what had been done. The media
choose to focuses on the rest of this paragraph, in which Ms. Watkins rails that
such an analyst would have rejected the disclosure because it was "too fraudulent".
But if it was disclosed, it wasn't fraudulent. So no analysts would reject such
disclosure.

That Enron's financials were complicated was as well-known to the market as was
the fact that the public was being assured by some of the most sophisticated
analysts on Wall Street that they did, in fact, understand Enron - even if the public
did not. As FORTUNE magazine put it in March, 2001: "How exactly does Enron
make its money?... [T]he numbers that Enron does present are often extremely
complicated. Even quantitatively minded Wall Streeters who scrutinize the company
for a living think so. 'If you figure it out, let me know,' laughs credit analyst Todd
Shipman at S&P. 'Do you have a year?' asks Ralph Pellecchia, Fitch's credit analyst,
in response to the same question." Is Enron Overpriced? By Bethany McLean,
FORTUNE, March 5, 2001. It is particularly worth noting that Messrs. Pellecchia and
Shipman were not stock analysts - they were credit analysts at those very credit
rating agencies whose grant of a high credit rating was essential to Enron's
continuing its business. Such analysts are empowered and required to ask
questions and demand answers entirely unrestricted by any limitations placed on
the Enron financial statements by Arthur Andersen or Enron. Their responses to the
FORTUNE questions do not indicate any anxiety at their level of understanding of
Enron's financial statements. For example, there is no hint that these credit agency
representatives were prepared to lower Enron's credit rating unless those
"incomprehensible" financial statement notes were cleared up. Why not? Most likely
because those notes were, in fact, comprehended after considerable effort. The
teaser to the FORTUNE article sums it up nicely: "It's in a bunch of complex
businesses. Its financial statements are nearly impenetrable. So why is Enron
trading at such a huge multiple?" Fair questions, which Wall Street professionals,
especially credit analysts are trained and paid well to understand and answer - and
almost always do. Those credit agency professionals aren't and weren't stupid or
lazy - not the great majority of them, anyway. Further, these agencies are experts at
understanding "off-balance-sheet" transactions. And they certainly weren't on the
take from Enron or in any Enron-induced conspiracy. Rather, it is much more likely
that they obtained as much information as they thought useful and sufficient, that
they DID understand the "off-balance-sheet" transactions disclosure in the Enron
financial statements - and didn't regard those transactions as dangerous, improper
or improperly reported. And those professionals probably did all that in good faith.
All of which strongly suggests that Enron's disclosure wasn't all that bad.

Nor is it likely that Arthur Andersen conspired maliciously against Enron's investors.
It is far more likely that Arthur Andersen viewed these "special purpose companies,"
"offshore partnership" transactions and other devices as aggressive, but within the
rules. In fact, while many observers have adopted a high dudgeon "obvious fraud"
view of these transactions, buried in some of the better reporting is a much more
nuanced approach. "Enron used plenty of other special-purpose entities, and it
appears that some of them were just as misleading as the one Andersen now
cites. They apparently conformed to accounting rules, but they did not "present
fairly," as the auditor's letter says, Enron's real financial situation." The Distorted
Numbers at Enron, By Floyd Norris, NYT December 14, 2001 (emphasis
supplied). So which is it? Were these transactions "obviously fraudulent" or did they
conform to applicable accounting rules? Clearly an accounting firm has a separate
obligation to determine whether financial statement "fairly present" the financial
status of the company. But such a determination is an art, not a science. It is much
more likely that Arthur Andersen decided in good faith that the financial statements
did provide enough disclosure, certainly enough disclosure for the uses of financial
professionals. But as discussed above, most of those professionals just didn't
care. Later, Arthur Andersen changed its mind and required the earnings to be
restated. Unfortunately, by that time the markets had started to care about earnings
again.

Understanding any scandal generally benefits from a review of the incentives the
scandal creates for those who are speaking about it. Those who speak often, early
or emphatically, normally have a definite interest or agenda, often concealed in what
they say. Neither having nor concealing such an interest or agenda needs be
wrong. But knowing the incentives helps isolate probable interests and agendas,
and those often limit or skew the information being conveyed.

Enron's huge failure is absolute and undeniable. But few of the causes of Enron's
failure are absolute or undeniable. Rather, the causes involve human discretion �
first on the parts of Enron's officers and professionals, and now on the part of those
passing judgment on Enron's operatives with the benefit of much hindsight. And
that's the rub when it comes to incentives. Enron's huge failure creates powerful
incentives for those judging Enron now � incentives at least as powerful as the
incentives imposed on the officers and professionals who sought to keep Enron
going when the questionable deals were done. Specifically, there is a very strong
incentive for most financial analysts, accountants, financial reporters, regulators
and especially politicians, to construe Enron's transactions in the harshest light,
and a very strong dis-incentive for such people to directly defend a loser like Enron.
All of these players benefit much more from either directly condemning Enron or
attempting to distinguish Enron from other enterprises.

On the political front, Democrats are excited and Republicans are scared. "The
dynamic over Enron cannot be that Democrats are against Enron and for reform,
and we're defending Enron and against reform," said one strategist who is close to
the White House but who would not allow his name to be used." In Shift, Bush
Assails Enron Over Handling of Collapse By David E. Sanger with David Barboza,
NY Times January 23, 2002.

In practice, no particular fact seems to support the full weight of any particular
serious accusation against Enron's professionals. Criticisms resemble a dash
across a partially frozen lake, with the argument leaping from chunk to chunk, never
pausing long on any particular fragment. Some of the arguments are discussed
specifically below.

It is worth beginning with the powerful, all-purpose smear that has been getting
much use recently: "It smells bad. Whatever the particulars turn out to be, it just
smells bad."

But does Enron really have the smell one expects in a good financial scandal?
Consider:

Enron's board of directors was of very high quality, and relatively independent of
management.

This board was reportedly kept informed of the practices now found to be so
"obviously" improper on the part of Enron's critics.

Members of the board seem to have benefited little from the alleged chicanery they
approved (at least in comparison with the risk they were creating for themselves),
and in some cases lost quite a lot when the stock collapsed. In addition, their
careers and reputations have now been permanently marred, at least.

Enron used Arthur Andersen as its auditor, the firm considered to be the best and
most independent of the large national accounting firms. Arthur Andersen approved
the now-notorious "special purpose companies" and "offshore partnership"
transactions whose revelation led directly to Enron's demise, and certified Enronagoon in Baj<� ��<��d just
prio<�x crossing over to the Atlantic for the Faroe Islands whale campaign.
The Ocean Warrior's executive staff sat down with National Park personnel
and in short order hammered out a provisional joint patrol agreement. By
August, despite the tenuous nature of communications between Ecuador and
Washington State, a final agreement had been worked out, and preparations to
make the Edward Abbey (since re-christened Sirenian under her Canadian
registry) ready for her first year of Galapagos duty were under way.

Patience pays. Sirenian is almost ready for her five-year tour of duty to
help the National Park Authority clamp down on illegal commercial fishing
operations within 40 miles of the islands. The commercial fishing ban has
been in effect since 1997, but is regularly violated by the huge Ecuadorian
fishing fleet, foreign vessels, and independent operators. Heavy damage is
being done by longliners going after billfish and sharks. A series of
coastal "no take" zones were established for the Marine Reserve this year,
and must be enforced.

These will be the first conservation patrols of the Galapagos by a foreign
vessel ever permitted by the Ecuadorian government. All we need now is your
support, and the Sea Shepherd Galapagos Conservation Patrols will become a
reality.

CONTACT:

Sea Shepherd International

Tel: 1-360-370-5500 Fax: 1-360-370-5501

E-mail:

Strad Master

(02/06/2002; 00:51:17 MDT - Msg ID: 69428)

Whoa!!! What happened?

Sorry about that!All: I have no idea how that little unplanned trip to the Galapagos Islands got stuck in there! Really bizarre! Here, though, is the continuation of that article from a little before where it left off.

Members of the board seem to have benefited little from the alleged chicanery they
approved (at least in comparison with the risk they were creating for themselves),
and in some cases lost quite a lot when the stock collapsed. In addition, their
careers and reputations have now been permanently marred, at least.

Enron used Arthur Andersen as its auditor, the firm considered to be the best and
most independent of the large national accounting firms. Arthur Andersen approved
the now-notorious "special purpose companies" and "offshore partnership"
transactions whose revelation led directly to Enron's demise, and certified Enron's
financial statements. Further, not a single employee of Arthur Andersen or Enron
ever went to any regulator with a tale of fraud prior to the bankruptcy. Is that what one
expects where fraud is pervasive and obvious as Enron's critics claim?

Arthur Andersen's procedures were themselves subject to review by another "Big
Five" accounting firm, which did not find those procedures lacking.

Enron's attorneys were Vincent & Elkins, one of the best law firms in the country.
Vincent & Elkins apparently provided "true sale" opinion letters which were
necessary to allow the accounting treatment Enron and Arthur Andersen gave
"special purpose companies" and "offshore partnership" transactions to go
through.

Enron's principle lenders were noted for their sophistication: Citibank and JP
Morgan. Each bank now claims hundreds of millions of dollars in exposure to
Enron � although they may have made money on Enron even allowing for this
exposure. Each also claims it did not know about Enron's irregularities and did not
foresee the coming collapse, even though their credit agreements with Enron
entitled them to inspection and audit rights far in excess of those of ordinary
investors, including stockholders. It is also worth keeping in mind that both of these
banks (as well as every large investment bank) fully understand the nature and
risks of "off balance sheet" transactions and structure because they have extensive
departments that create "off balance sheet" products which employ all of the
devices Enron's questionable investments employed.

To survive accounting scrutiny and warrant "true sale� opinions, each questionable
Enron transaction would normally have been supported by a formal appraisal of the
value of the property transferred to the "special purpose company" and "offshore
partnership." If these appraisals were created in good faith by seasoned
professionals using standard appraisal measure (all of which is normally
required), it is difficult to see how the transactions could possibly be as "obviously"
improper as Enron's critics now claim.

Does any of this "smell" the way a scandal should smell?

To conclude that Enron's fraud had the scope its critics now allege, complicity of
Arthur Andersen and a conspiratorial intent on the part of Enron's own officers is
only the beginning. One must then assume that each member of the board of
directors was willing to risk his or her personal fortune, career, reputation and
honor � all for compensation reportedly of less than half a million dollars per year.
Then one must contend with the bizarre fact that not one single member of that
board of directors at any time resigned in protest or under suspicious
circumstances � and no former member of that board has come forward to
date. Are we to assume that ALL of the board members saw what was so
"obviously" fraudulent and then without exception elected to keep quiet? Was
this a board of directors of an American public company or the Soviet Politburo
under Stalin?

For the "fraud" hypothesis to be correct, hundreds � if not thousands � of
employees and professionals at many levels of society had to be in the conspiracy
and had to keep quiet for years, notwithstanding the constant threat of exposure to
the Securities and Exchange Commission, Citibank and JP Morgan � the latter two
of which had extensive contractual rights to audit and investigate Enron.

Then there were reviews and investigations by the credit rating agencies � which
were certainly not restricted by what Arthur Andersen put into the financial
statements. These are the same agencies that rate derivatives and off balance seet
structure every single day. We are asked to believe they were fooled by
incomprehensible financial notes.

We are then further asked to assume that Citibank and JP Morgan (and the
investment banks employing the financial analysts who were supposedly "misled"
by Enron's "opaque" financial statements), banks which maintain large staffs
creating "off balance sheet" products these banks sell on a regular basis didn't
know how to analyze them or realize the risks they created.

Once we've digested that, we must move on to believe that the appraisers used to
certify the questionable transactions were somehow compromised to the point of
risking their reputations - even criminal sanctions - alonmg with all the other
professionals involved.

And let us not forget that we are asked to accept that all the ultra-sophisticated
people involved in the above were reduced to fools and/or charlatans even though a
distinct but vocal minority of analysts and other Enron critics � including one highly
visible analyst resident right there in Houston � regularly complained that Enron
was a house of cards.

In an unintentionally hilarious article, Investors Lured to Enron Deals by Inside
DataBy Kurt Eichenwald, NYT January 25, 2002, the New York Times now seeks to
add to the growing vastness of the conspiracy some of the largest investment
banks in the country. Essentially accusing Merrill, Lynch and other banks of fraud
and violation of insider trading laws, the Times portenteously proclaims : "The
disclosures created conflicts for Wall Street firms, as well. For example, the
investment banking arm of Merrill Lynch & Company, which underwrote the LJM2
offering, was aware of the off-balance-sheet figures for Enron; indeed, Merrill's
name is on the cover page of the offering containing the data." So the Times thinks
that Merrill "was aware of the off-balance-sheet figures for Enron," thought the
figures were fraudulent and underwrote the offering ANYWAY? It is also worth noting
that this article is discussing a private placement to very wealthy and influential
investors - exactly the kind of investors who would have the power to really damage
Merrill if the kind of thing the Times is alleging were true. So we are asked to believe
that Merrill is financially irrational and self destructive, as well as perhaps criminals.
None of it very likely. While the Times seems not to get the point, Merrill's treatment
of the "off-balance-sheet figures" is just more evidence that the Enron "off-balance
sheet figures" were NOT viewed as improper at all by most people who reviewed or
dealt with them. Those people may have been wrong. But it is very unlikely they
were all malicious and conspiratorial.

In a subsequent article about the LJM2 partnership, the Times appears to come
unglued from its accusations of fraud and insider trading. Addressing that
partnership, the Times admits in its confused excitement: "But did the [LJM2]
arrangement � actually violate the nation's securities laws and regulations? That is
far more difficult to answer, legal scholars say." A Fog Over Enron, and the Legal
Landscape By Diana B. Henriques with Kurt Eichenwald, NYT January 27, 2002. In
fact, the January 27 article breathlessly trolls for negative, condemnatory comment
from the gathering of legal scholars it covers. But, curiously, not a single one of the
persons quoted in that article actually says that anything Enron did - regardless of
whether it touched LJM2 - was clearly illegal. This appears to be a surprise to the
Times reporters. The article finally settles for assertions that Congress will surely
act to fix the problem through legislation. So it comes to this: Times coverage of
LJM2 began with accusations of fraud and insider trading and progresses to
assertions that Congress must act to stop "improper" acts which nobody seems to
be able or willing to say were clearly illegal. Perhaps a microcosm of the entire
Enron fiasco? One can almost hear the Times reporters "moo."

At some point, one just has to say "ENOUGH!" "NO!" "I will not believe that
thousands of people had fraudulent intent and maintained a years long conspiracy
virtually doomed to fail!" It has been correctly said that "A foolish consistency is the
hobgoblin of little minds." To which one might add that the ready imputation of
conspiracy and maliciousness is the most foolish consistency of all. It is certainly a
delicious irony that the same herd mentality that created the idiotic run up in the
fortunes of profitless e-commerce and broadband companies, including Enron, in
defiance of all finance wisdom should now swing so savagely against those it
formerly, irrationally, blessed. But it's a shame that the real villains are not caught.
Indeed, they are now impersonating victims.

"To understand the strange world of Enron accounting, think of a carnival fun
house." The Distorted Numbers at Enron, By Floyd Norris, NYT December 14,
2001.

Yes. Think of a carnival fun house. But the fun didn't really start until AFTER the
bankruptcy!
- Robert Musil,

Black Blade

(02/06/2002; 01:51:14 MDT - Msg ID: 69430)

Strad Master

I know what you mean. I posted a long post here once (The Rise and Fall of Hydrocarbon Man) and the same result - yep, you guessed it - Green Peace. Anyone who has a long post should cut and paste segments and note them as #1, #2, etc. Though a trip to the Galapagos woul be interesting. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(02/06/2002; 02:17:49 MDT - Msg ID: 69431)

Gold Lower Silver Higher

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metalsGold is down a buck, however, Silver is up 12 cents. Still could be a tough day for Wall Street as the Enronitis epidemic sweeps through the markets.

Black Blade

(02/06/2002; 04:33:17 MDT - Msg ID: 69432)

European Markets Getting Trashed!

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?uEuropean markets are awash in red. There are banking concerns as huge writeoffs on an Irish bank is sending shock waves across Europe. US market indice futures are sharply lower suggesting a possible sharp drop on Wall Street at the open. Meanwhile Gold has moved higher and could be poised to move on Enronitis worries and as CNBC's Ted David and Bob Pisani said investors could be seeking "a flight to quality". This morning's market action should be lively.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(02/06/2002; 04:44:16 MDT - Msg ID: 69433)

Cisco's reliance on 'pro forma' accounting draws investor scrutiny

http://www.msnbc.com/news/700154.asp?0si=-
Snippit:

Feb. 5 - Despite the Cisco Systems' repeated warnings that it can't tell when its business will improve, its investors continue to bet on a return to double-digit profit growth. So Wall Street will be listening carefully for any word on the outlook for increased spending by corporate America on the company's telecommunications equipment. And with corporate-accounting practices under a microscope, they'll be looking even more closely at the numbers the company reports.

Black Blade: Cisco earnings (actually losses) are revealed today. Unfortunately the focus will be on Pro Forma earnings and not net losses. Yep, they are still bleeding cash and unprofitable. I guess as long as they "beat the street". Hmmm�

BTW, Gold just poked above $300.00/oz. as just mentioned on CNBC.

Grubstaker

(02/06/2002; 04:49:16 MDT - Msg ID: 69434)

Yesterday's GOLD "run"..

RUETERS;
The deep-seated concerns about banks, the struggling stock market and growing pessimism over reforms touched off a rush for gold in Tokyo on Wednesday as Japanese searched for a safe haven for their cash in the face of a possible financial crisis.
The Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) was swamped with large buy orders from Japanese investors on Wednesday, overloading and delaying gold trade until the midday break.
Prices soared when trading began. The December 2002 gold contract surged by its daily price limit of 40 yen per gram to trade at 1,274 throughout the day -- the highest price for TOCOM benchmark gold on a continuation basis since October 5, 1998.

"The public has been putting its money into very, very low-return, low-risk assets," said Peter Tasker, head of Arcus Fund Management in Tokyo. "Now they are told that low-risk assets are high risk, but there is still no return."

ANOTHER S&P WARNING

Ratings agency Standard & Poor's warned it may downgrade Japan's banks again, only a day after cutting the ratings of seven major banks and keeping their rating outlook on negative.

LeSin

(02/06/2002; 04:50:44 MDT - Msg ID: 69435)

Gold Breaks $300

From Kitco Gold

Date: 02/06/02
Time (EST):06:48
Bid: 300.80
Ask: 301.30
Change from NY Close: +1.11

�

Simply Me

(02/06/2002; 04:53:28 MDT - Msg ID: 69436)

POG just broke $300 !!!!

In the Tennessee vernacular...
Yeeee-haaaw!!!

Goo-o-o-o-d Morning, USAGold Posters!
golden granny

Black Blade

(02/06/2002; 04:55:22 MDT - Msg ID: 69437)

Gold Breaks $303.80/oz.

Gold is even getting notice on CNBC this morning. Also the POG is flashed in the lower right-hand corner of the TV. Meanwhile, the market indices look horrible this morning as the "Daschle Dip" extends into this morning's trading. Europe is getting hammered on banking fears.

- Black Blade

The Invisible Hand

(02/06/2002; 04:55:29 MDT - Msg ID: 69438)

Fifty bucks a day

Is that not what A/TG predicted?

Grubstaker

(02/06/2002; 05:01:17 MDT - Msg ID: 69439)

Capitulation in TOKYO..

TOKYO, Feb 5 (Reuters) - The asset management unit of Nikko Cordial Corp saw 268.6 billion yen ($2.03 billion) take flight in January from three investment funds containing bonds issued by failed Enron Corp ENRNQ.PK, data from Lipper Asia Ltd showed on Tuesday.

That marks a plunge of 65 percent in the combined balance of the three "Chance" funds at Nikko Asset Management Co Ltd since December, as investors rushed to pull money from the funds after they fell below face value.

The withdrawals are a new blow for the nation's third-biggest brokerage, already hit hard by a flurry of cancellations in its money management fund (MMF), which also contains Enron bonds.

Investors withdrew 3.76 trillion yen from the MMF -- or 95 percent of the fund -- in November and December.

Until the Enron debacle, MMFs were considered a safe, high-yielding alternative to bank deposits.

Analysts have said the failure of the U.S. energy trader in December could hinder Nikko Cordial's strategy of broadening its client base to ensure stable retail earnings.

Last week, Nikko Cordial, which is owned 20 percent by U.S. financial giant Citigroup C.N, reported a group net loss of 29.65 billion yen for the nine months through December as a flagging stock market took a toll on retail revenue.

That is a sharp turnaround from a profit of 46.79 billion yen a year earlier and suggested Nikko Cordial would report a loss for the year ending March 31.

Shares in Nikko ended down 3.11 percent at 405 yen on Tuesday, compared with a 1.62 percent slip in the Nikkei average .N225. Nikko shares have lost 64 percent in value since their 2001 peak last May.

Lipper is the global funds subsidiary of Reuters Group RTR.

how long will the "big 3" be able to stop the tide. My bet is that it won't be very long before this shot rings around the entire planet. Physical GOLD held in your hand (and locked away safely afterwards) is the ONLY safe haven in this storm..

Black Blade

(02/06/2002; 05:08:20 MDT - Msg ID: 69440)

Nice Chart

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.htmlWhen I see this chart I can only think that the Brits sold off there birth right for a pitance for depreciating currency. The people must be proud of Captain Tony and Eddie George. Hmmm...

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(02/06/2002; 05:13:35 MDT - Msg ID: 69441)

Now at $307.10/oz. up $8.00

You just gotta know that Munky and Elephant at Barrick are just getting a bit nervous about now. The hedgers must be shaking with fear the higher the POG goes. I see a lotta shareholder lawsuits in their future.

- Black Blade

Goldfly

(02/06/2002; 05:17:13 MDT - Msg ID: 69442)

Oh my

GOSH
OK, the question is: Why are they letting it rise?

Can't wait for the NY open.

Black Blade

(02/06/2002; 05:20:36 MDT - Msg ID: 69443)

Gold at $308.30 (CNBC)

Now they even have Liz Clayman saying Gold is "a flight to quality". Hmmm...

LeSin

(02/06/2002; 05:32:41 MDT - Msg ID: 69444)

Optional PM's Price Site - Kitco Will be Down For Sure or Very Slow Today

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
Gold @ 7:20AM
old Spot (XAUUSDO)
Market Open High Low Last Change Time
Index 297.9 306.8 290.1 306.5 +8.6 7:20AM

Relax and breath deeply people. We should not start to celebrate until Au is well past $500 - Seriously that may only take a few hours/days/months, yes? We do watch the market together, yes? BIG SMILE Very BIG SMILE.

Good night from the Wonderful Land of OZ Down Under, I have done my bit, now, you lads and lassies bring her home.
Cheers "S"

Black Blade

(02/06/2002; 05:37:27 MDT - Msg ID: 69445)

Bank Hit by $750 Million Suspected Fraud

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020206/business_financial_alliedirish_dc_2.html
Snippit:

DUBLIN (Reuters) - Ireland's largest bank, Allied Irish Banks Plc, was probing a suspected case of fraud amounting to $750 million on Wednesday in one of the world's biggest trading scandals since Nick Leeson sank Barings bank.

Black Blade: I also understand that JP Morgan Chase may have some bad news as well. There are certainly some questions on the excessive derivative exposure. Bad loans and write offs are also rumored.

EagleOne

(02/06/2002; 05:43:34 MDT - Msg ID: 69446)

New passenger on the bullion bus

http://www.knelson.com/technical/presentation.palo?presID=13%20.These guys must have been lurking here at USAGOLD. They announced yesterday that they would be converting **a siginifcant portion of their cash to bullion** See link to their web site and picture of happy execs with a little gold.

Brett Woods

(02/06/2002; 05:44:06 MDT - Msg ID: 69447)

(No Subject)

Here we go boys. Over the hill.

TownCrier

(02/06/2002; 05:58:03 MDT - Msg ID: 69448)

WGC Rhona O'Connell's comments on the gold market this past day...

http://www.gold.org/-------With the dollar, yen and euro all under varying degrees of question, the equity markets showing signs of stress and amid continued talk of earnings and accounting quality, gold is asserting a dual role, both as a reserve currency and as a reserve asset and is attracting attention accordingly. The longer-term background, with the dollar price solid last year in the face of sustained dollar strength, and in a low and falling interest-rate environment, provides the backdrop.

The sustained desire for hard assets as a risk hedge has underpinned gold's activity and the market reached $299 in both New York and the Far East overnight before retreating to support that is emerging at $296 and bouncing back to clear $300 in London this morning. Fund-related buying was evident through all time zones. The move has by definition been accelerated by technical trading, with different bull signals being triggered and thus electing buy orders (and stop-loss trading). Generally speaking in times such as these the physical market retreats to the sidelines, and there has been a degree of profit taking emerging in parts of Asia, although retail investors were again active buyers in Japan.

TOCOM was in fact so busy that there was an order overload and for a period, trades were delayed. The December contract was limit up for the whole day. All the interest in the OTC market is in spot trading; there is virtually nothing happening in the forwards and dealers are reporting an orderly options market, although the breach of $300 this
morning may well change that.--------

*WHEN* this does go critical, you'll wish you had heeded the warnings offered at these pages to put your diversification emphasis on the metal, not on the various gold derivatives. In times of stress, paper is only paper.

R.

Black Blade

(02/06/2002; 05:58:48 MDT - Msg ID: 69449)

JP Morgan Had Too Much Exposure to Enron

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Securities%20Firms%20News&b1=ad_bottom1&br=blk&tp=ad_topright&T=wealthstory.ht&s=APGC5jBO0Si5QLiBNThe CEO of JPMC says that they had too much exposure to deals with Enron.

BTW, it appears that there is a push to nudge the S&P futures higher and bring the POG back down. It would not be surprising to see a concerted effort to control the stock market and the POG today due to the numerous earnings warnings, scandals, "Daschle Dip", banking fears, and accounting standard concerns (Enronitis). Look for a hard push to contrl Gold in NY in the next few minutes.

- Black Blade

Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD

(02/06/2002; 06:08:01 MDT - Msg ID: 69450)

Hard assets... Easy access! Don't be fooled by inflatable paper substitutes!

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Gold Sovereigns Today!

Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

In this global marketplace, a single event on the far side of the world can suddenly and adversely affect the performance-credibility value of the commercial positions within your investment portfolio.

Gold has no employees, no overhead, and no financial statement to balance. It cannot go bankrupt. Gold is wealth itself. It is valued worldwide on the basis of its uniquely reliable form and function -- a steadfast financial commodity which is immune to the contagious collapses to which all financial paper is prone.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

The Stranger

(02/06/2002; 06:16:07 MDT - Msg ID: 69451)

Woops!

From today's Wall Street Journal:

Gold Futures Soar Through Resistance
On Supply Issues, U.S. Equity Concerns

By DAVID BOGOSLAW
OsterDowJones Commodity News

Gold futures ripped through technical resistance levels, reaching a level not seen since the immediate aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks.

The leading April contract on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange stopped just short of the $300 mark -- a psychological threshold -- ending Tuesday's session at $299.10 a troy ounce, up $9 from Monday.

The same influences that spurred an unexpected move through $290 on Monday were at play Tuesday, with a potential shift in supply-and-demand fundamentals and concerns over U.S. equity valuations the chief drivers of the extended rally.

After posting significant losses Monday, U.S. stock indexes were fairly subdued. April gold hit its $299.80 peak even after the Dow Jones Industrial Average had recovered from negative territory and was up 48 points at 9735.

Some market watchers warned of an all-out crisis in investor confidence in the U.S. financial markets ignited by what market analyst Rhona O'Connell at the World Gold Council called the Enron factor.

Citing a report from a major investment firm, Ms. O'Connell said, "There's an awful lot of overseas money invested in U.S. equities. The threat of credit ratings being reduced is quite likely to induce repatriation of capital into these countries or into other investment areas."

A spate of credit downgrades would hit the dollar as a consequence of halting capital flows into the greenback, she explained. With no other currency performing well enough to siphon capital away from the dollar, that left only gold as a potential recipient of investor attention, she said.

"Accounting issues are first and foremost in [people's] minds. What the market hates most and what people hate most is uncertainty," agreed Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management in Evanston, Ill. But until another confidence-smashing corporate failure on the order of Enron emerged, he said he doubted concerns were sufficiently serious to warrant gold's move toward $300 an ounce.

Instead, he attributed gold's gains to a perceived shift in the metal's supply-and-demand balance, with investors taking a positive view of producers' recent announcements of plans to reduce hedge positions, or the amount of gold they have sold forward to protect themselves against falling prices.

Mr. Kaplan said the biggest gain in the gold price during the past five years -- a spike to $340 from $260 an ounce in September 1999 following an agreement among 15 European central banks to limit gold sales -- was related to supply-and-demand considerations, not safe-haven buying.

Although he said a move above $302 in spot gold would denote a sea change for the yellow metal, Mr. Kaplan said the odds were against it breaking $300, if only because of how many times it has failed at this level before.

Henri

(02/06/2002; 06:31:17 MDT - Msg ID: 69452)

Sir Gandalf

Your clinkery Noted

A toast to your growing wealth sir.

It grows not by idle sitting around and watching blips on a screen dance the lumbata...it grows by being added to!

turkey hunter

(02/06/2002; 06:50:57 MDT - Msg ID: 69453)

The Queen of England 50th

Hi all. Maybe the Queen of England told Eddie to turn gold loose for awhile to celebrate her Jubilee year. 50 years today she has been Queen. They do things first class over there. :)

Siochain

(02/06/2002; 06:59:58 MDT - Msg ID: 69454)

Cisco "Mistakenly" Pre=releases earnings

From Morning Stock letterI get (Newspicks) ...first was the story of gold & importance of jump...& that market looked to take a fall today ...but then Cisco to the rescue:

"Hold on here a minute! What is this? Business wire is saying that an internal memo from a CSCO executive was distributed prematurely to a lot of CSCO employees last night and that it says they will beat Q2 estimates for EPS. This sounds pretty shady doesn't it? In a world of accounting witch hunting, CSCO's memo hits the night before earnings and suggests they will beat earnings? This is getting interesting!

Oh now the Dow Jones also happens to say that 2nd Q booked orders were 3.9 billion verses their target of 3.75 billion

They say they are compelled to let us know about this since so many people got this "memo". This has brought the futures well up, and this changes the entire day folks!

8:21

Okay, it would be pretty naive to think that this CSCO baloney was just a mistake. there was a reason they decided to let out that they will beat estimates and revenues ahead of tonights earnings release. Maybe they are just trying to avoid the selloff that was brewing for this morning, I don't know. But now we have to try and figure out what it means for today.

It looks like we are going to have a small bounce this morning, but will it snowball into something big? Its hard to tell. We got the numbers out from CSCO, and as we said this morning it was probable that they would beat the estimates, but we haven't heard their conference call, and won't until tonight. Maybe the market will trade sideways ahead of that.

Our best guess is that we bounce here at the open, and attempt a move higher. We will probably put in a green close, but they won't want to get too excited until they head from Chambers himself.

8:31

the productivity number is out and it came in hotter than estimates. They were expecting a rise of 3% and it came in at 3.5% Will that move the market? Yes.

Right now the futures have gone from deep red to positive. We are now probably going to get an upswing at the open instead of a sell off. The question is can it hold? It could, but to be honest, it doesn't feel like it yet. Right now it feels like they will bounce us at the open and then sell us off again. What a wild day."

Hmmmn ...interesting how that memo got out by mistake...great timing, wouldn't you say?

Cavan Man

(02/06/2002; 07:03:23 MDT - Msg ID: 69455)

The (syndicated) "Wall Street Journal Report"

This AM, the loquacious Mike Salvatorelli et al talking about Cisco and good productivity numbers and "higher US fututes pointing to....". These guys should get a new producer.

Cavan Man

(02/06/2002; 07:06:14 MDT - Msg ID: 69456)

Siochain

Cisco Oops!That happened last year at a critical juncture. This is the second time if what you say is true. I remember distinctly but not the specific quarter.

Does anyone else remember? Run your own money using the internet.

Siochain

(02/06/2002; 07:12:28 MDT - Msg ID: 69457)

@Cavan Man

I believe so....want to make a bet that some pretty worried FED calls were made to Cisco to get the scoop....and voila....magically good news just gets "accidentally" released to employees ...BUT we've got to keep it "fair"..so now we need to pre-release to everyone...un huh,,,'sure!

slingshot

(02/06/2002; 07:38:09 MDT - Msg ID: 69458)

Castle Front Door

Victory SoundsBoom! Boom! Boom! Crraaaaaacccckkkkk

Arrrrrggghhhhhhhhhhhhhh!

You can't always get what you want.
But you find sometimes, you just may find'

You Get What You Need. Oh, YEA!

slingshot

RobotGuy

(02/06/2002; 07:54:37 MDT - Msg ID: 69459)

She Broke 3!!

Well it was nice to see anyway, a sign of things to come.

darkhorse

(02/06/2002; 08:04:58 MDT - Msg ID: 69460)

gee, I never expected this...

Right on que, gold is gettin the c**p kicked out of it. This kind of abuse (of power) orta be illegal...somebody orta make a federal case out of it! :)

RobotGuy

(02/06/2002; 08:27:06 MDT - Msg ID: 69461)

North American Markets

Looks as though were in for another dive after yesterday's struggle to keep afloat. We're in the money!!

sourdough

(02/06/2002; 08:27:49 MDT - Msg ID: 69462)

Gold price

Despair not if gold retreats.
Governments know that gold cannot be held back much longer.
They also know that the best option is to get as much gold in the hands of the Japanese consumer "BEFORE" they release their hold.
If it costs them paper or physical it will be worth it to get that windfall in the hands of the Japanese and restore their confidence enough to get them spending.
If it works, somewhere down the line they will get it back.
It doesn`t cost more to print a $1 bill than to print a $100 bill.
Make sure the Japanese reap the windfall at all costs.

USAGOLD Market Commentary

(02/06/2002; 08:28:06 MDT - Msg ID: 69463)

Gold Hits 28 Month High, Retreats; Irish Bank Pushed to the Ropes on $750 Million Loss in Currency TradingNEWS & VIEWS Update!

Available online to all clientele and prospective clientele, NEWS & VIEWS Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has again been updated.

Read the full commentary and related information here. (access codes required)

New visitors may review these selected portions provided at the Daily Market Report page. You may enjoy our 24-Hour NewsWire provided at this page, also.

Goldfly

(02/06/2002; 08:35:28 MDT - Msg ID: 69464)

Back over $300

Aaahhh.... Volatility!
Hold on! Hold on!

Let go! let go!

RobotGuy

(02/06/2002; 08:37:40 MDT - Msg ID: 69465)

Ahhhh! There she goes!!

It's like two new years eve's in one day!! :0

Knallgold

(02/06/2002; 09:00:24 MDT - Msg ID: 69466)

This Gold market

If you think retracements are healthy in this market,you might have to study it more.The situation is verry unhealthy actually'so the faster the price shoots up,the sooner we get the healthy state back,no?

R Powell

(02/06/2002; 09:25:24 MDT - Msg ID: 69467)

Apology

In my enthusiasm over what I believe will be a big move upward in the dollar price of both gold and silver, I posted (yesterday) a report by an analyst. I am familar with a great many of these reports, some free and some available through paid subscriptions. What I reported yesterday gave information on the availability of this information but I was much too specific. It was judged, correctly in my opinion, as advertisement and removed.
I have no connection with anyone selling information and I do appreciate that this site is ad-free. I'm sorry and will be much more careful from now on.
Rich

Goldfly

(02/06/2002; 09:33:29 MDT - Msg ID: 69468)

Knallgold, on the whole, you're right, but

I'd say anything that injects some life into this market is something to smile about. Talk about inert elements.....

sourdough

(02/06/2002; 09:37:03 MDT - Msg ID: 69469)

gold price

I live in beautiful British Columbia , Canada.
Our economy needs the Japanese economy to recover.
We need the Japanese consumer to spend.
We need the Japanese consumer to purchase gold before it rises to far. We need them to take there 25,000 and invest in gold "before" it runs to $400+.
Will they sell, I don`t think so.
Not if they can go down to their local bank or pawnshop, whatever and use that gold as collateral, if they need too.
If they feel good enough to take that skiing vacation, where will they go? B.C. Currency ratio is correct. physical risk is best.
If they want to build the kids a house, B.C. lumber,
Best quality, best price,(u.s. shut us out)
Going out to celebrate. B.C. wine, Canadian beef,pork'salmon
Oh, I want gold to go to the roof, in my hands and the hands of the Japanese consumer. I can pay off my credit cards, they can spend. Make sure they get all they want, then let her go.
I wonder what`s the talk in the sushi shop.

TownCrier

(02/06/2002; 09:48:27 MDT - Msg ID: 69470)

Highgrading from the mind of ANOTHER

http://www.usagold.com/GoldTrail/archives/ANOTHER1.htmlAn excerpt for your additional consideration...
---
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) Sun Nov 02 1997 21:52:
Western thought is still linked to gold as a commodity. That thinking is going to change! The world will witness an almost instantaneous run into this commodity the likes of we have never seen before! It will not be "a trading rally" or "a two way street". Bullion will have become a holding for "the lifetime" never to be sold. "Sell and spend everything but not gold"!

Do you think in these terms: "if gold goes up $100+ next week I'll sell my futures, gold stocks and 10 K-rands for a fat profit and laugh all the way to the bank" If the gold market was the same as in the 70s and 80s, that might be a good move. But this market is not the same. The world has changed and left most goldbugs fighting the last war! Only this time they are much smarter and have many more tools to work with. But, what if you do battle with your modern missiles pointing the wrong direction?

For us to understand what is about to happen we must pull our minds out of the paper trading world. Instead enter the world of real things! Here we will see concepts more clearly.

All currencies and most treasury debt are little more than digital units of perceived value. You don't own them, your account is "credited" with this value. Foreign governments, such as Japan are no better off than American citizens, they don't own anything either! What is really owned is "the right to offer what is credited to you, to a bidder in exchange for real things or other credits". It is a strange way to hold wealth. One might say "my net worth is the intention of others to pay me a credit from someone else". This thinking has worked well until the late 80s. It was at this time that a few wealthy and very smart people started to see the end of this. They understood that the US$ was not going to crash, it already had. It, along with all major currencies would lose all sense of value and become only trading digits of account. The treasury debts were little more than the same thing.

You see, all currencies now compete with each other, not for value of wealth but for "USAGE". The game has now become "whose currency gets used the most for trading" not for value against goods! It was easy to know the currency that got used for oil would win this game. Today, all currencies are traded against the dollar for it's usage as a medium of oil exchange! Take away that link and the entire currency/ debt exchange system, as we know it will collapse! The US$ must be maintained as the "most used" if the other currencies are to have a chance to survive.

Will Japan sell US treasury debt and risk taking dollars out of "usage"? Not in your life! Nor will any other CB! They will talk about it. They will sell a little. But sell a lot? It will not happen. You see oil is the key and that connection to the dollar is changing. Foreign CBs will even sell some gold to try and keep the US$ in play ( see my other posts ) . Ever wonder why the US treasury has not sold gold, it would have the opposite effect! The oil that sense the early 70s, held together the world monetary system is now causing it to slide apart! We are not going to see inflation or deflation again. What we are now seeing is the "destruction" of our paper monetary system.

Someone once asked "if the currency/ banking system breaks down, how will we know what gold is worth?". My answer, gold above ground will be worth a lot more than gold below ground, a lot MORE!
--end--

RobotGuy

(02/06/2002; 09:49:51 MDT - Msg ID: 69471)

It's Amazing!

Unbelieveable how she rests ever so slightly shy of an otherwise imaginary line. What if we told them $300 is really just $299.75, would they push to $299.90? I find it very peculiar how we make imaginary limits. Should I spend another 20 cents? No, it's only worth $299.80. Ha! Good luck keeping her there for long!

uponroof

(02/06/2002; 09:56:37 MDT - Msg ID: 69472)

ding! ding! ding! ding! ding!

It's closing time in London town (noon est).....

Lets see what happens if anything. This has been a popular time for bull raids in the past. I would guess that the shorts are laying in the weeds today to counter or perhaps initiate a move of their own. But then you never know...the bulls might just keep hammering away at the close until the shorts can prove they can handle it. Meanwhile, the volatility is helping my calls.

siochain...I am sorry I mispelled your name yesterday. It's my 9th grade education rearing it's ugly head again.

Cheers

Carl H

(02/06/2002; 09:56:37 MDT - Msg ID: 69473)

Restrictions on Savings Withdrawls

Good Morning All:

I just got a statement from one of my bank accounts the following notice is on it:

Beginning April 1, 2002, withdrawls from savings accoutns are limited by the Federal Reserve Board Regulation D to a total of 6 per month. These include preauthorized, automatic, & online transfers, point-of-sale purchases, payments to other persons, & transfers by telephone. There will be a $10 fee for each limited withdrawl, over 6 per month, from your savings account.

This sounds disturbingly like a precursor to the restrictions in Argentina.

RobotGuy

(02/06/2002; 10:03:43 MDT - Msg ID: 69474)

By the way......SourDough

What on earth is going on with our dollar? You would think the rash of foreign currency entering our markets recently would be pushing it higher,..no?

Mr Gresham

(02/06/2002; 10:26:01 MDT - Msg ID: 69475)

Randy

Thanks for the "highgrading" excerpts; it's hard to find time to even get down into the mineshaft lately (and some fears I'll get so involved in "digging" I forget the rest of my day) so I appreciate you focusing us on some choice nuggets.

sourdough

(02/06/2002; 10:43:15 MDT - Msg ID: 69476)

RobotGuy (2/6/02; 10:03:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 69474

Ya, expected a little more strength. Still think it will come. Keep an eye on the CDNX. Lots of strength there, seems to come at the end of the day.

I got a question for anybody.
Say the Japanese people are "being hit over the head", with every means possible to herd them into the gold market, knowing that they will reap a coming windfall that could snap them out of their fear and increase consumer demand leading to domestic economic growth.
Say there are some huge financial entities that are aware of this. These huge financial entities realize that this is going to hurt them due to "wrong sided gold derivitives".
Say, they accept the future losses, but also accept that with the proper engineering the Japanese economy will reverse and start to grow based on consumer spending.

Question: what would be their preferred hedge against gold losses? yen?, Yen bonds? yen non performing bank loans? equities? other commodities?
Is there any hedge that could get them even?

Siochain

(02/06/2002; 10:44:43 MDT - Msg ID: 69477)

@uponroof

No problem...I have trouble with it....but since I am mostly of Irish heritage ...and given 9/11 as well as world conditions...I chose it because it means Peace in the Celtic language

Peace!

Siochain

(02/06/2002; 10:56:06 MDT - Msg ID: 69478)

Gold Summary

A little long & you know a lot of this...but thougt worth a read...from Roger Bentley Arnold Daily Observations

Gold : recent history

Gold prices are at $300 an ounce, up $9 yesterday alone. Gold had hit an interday low last February of $252 an ounce and has been trending steadily higher since then. The 10 year average price of gold is about $333 an ounce although that doesn't tell the real story. Due to coordinated central bank selling of gold over the past 10 years, at the request of the Basel Capital Accord from the Bank of International Settlements, gold prices have fallen from about $450 an ounce 10 years ago steadily down to where they are today. The average cost of getting gold out of the ground is about $250 an ounce, a ground floor which, if broken to the downside could not sustain itself below that level long. This is one of the reasons I have been advising that from a protection of principal investment gold looks very good. The bonus is the potential increase in its value should the world economy sustain paper currency devaluation. The rapid increase in gold prices over the past few days and few weeks indicates an erosion of confidence in paper currencies, including the US dollar, US Treasuries, and US GSE debt, (fannie / freddie) by investors all over the world.

Gold : Carry Trades revisited

Gold carry trades begin with a central bank or large money center bank renting or leasing a quantity of gold to another financial institution. The largest gold carry trade and gold derivatives market participant is JP Morgan Chase. That means they are the ones doing most of the renting from the other institutions. This gold is then sold by JP Morgan Chase, and others doing this, into the open market. The cash they raise by selling the gold is invested in "safe" income vehicles, namely US treasuries, or GSE debt. The income that comes in from the US treasuries is used to pay the lease on the gold they rented from the central bank. The money left over is cash flow profit.

Gold : Here is the Catch

Loss concern number 1: In essence, by doing this, JP Morgan and the others have shorted gold. Which means they will eventually have to buy it back to deliver, upon demand, to the banks they borrowed the gold from. Well, if they leased gold from the "counterparty" bank and immediately sold it at say $270 and ounce and are forced to buy it back at $300 an ounce they have lost $30 an ounce. Compounding this concern for investors is that nobody knows how much there is in potential losses on the books at JPM since they are not required to 1) carry the trade at market value as a liability or 2) even carry on their balance sheet. The growing concern is that many of the institutions have simlair trades being carried off balance sheet and nobody knows what their status is.

Loss concern number 2, bond losses : Remember they purchased US treasuries and GSE debt with the money they received from having sold the gold. Treasury yields have been rising recently due in part to the selling of US treasuries and GSE debt and the flight to safety into gold. As yields rise, the underlying principal value of the treasury decreases. Remember yields and bond prices have an inverse relationship; as bond yields; i.e. interest rates rise, bond prices and value fall. As bond values fall, reserves shrink. As reserves shrink, the potential for forced selling of other investments to meet reserve requirements increases. Forced selling is a reactive situation indicating a lack of internal business and financial controls. A lack of control can cause a crisis of confidence by investors in a companies management and the potential for a systemic route out by investors increases. This route can then self validate the destruction of the company. This is, in essence, what occurred to Enron.

Loss concern number 3, stock losses : Exaggerating all of this for investors is the fact that most of these trades are Over the Counter or OTC which mean they are not exchange traded, which means they are not transparent, which means they may or may not be carried on the balance sheet of the company doing these trades. This is called off balance sheet financing. The concern over off balance sheet financing and lack of transparency that goes with it is what caused lenders to stop lending to Enron, instigating its collapse. Although every major money center is involved in this, by far the largest player in derivatives of all kinds, including gold, is JP Morgan Chase. Equity investors are aware of this fact and are also aware that nobody knows what their exposure really is due to the lack of transparency. Which brings us to loss concern number three, the stock price falling. JPM's stock is off by 50% in the past year. Company treasury stock is also carried as a reserve asset on the books of the bank.

The immediate future : What I suspect will happen from here however is for central banks around the world to make more gold available for leasing and sale into this flight to safety in an attempt to meet the demand and to keep gold prices from going much above these levels. However, they will have to do so very quickly and in very large quantities in order to have an impact. The other side of that coin becomes, if the central banks make the gold available who is going to buy it and who is going to lease it. We know there are buyers but remember, leasing gold in this environment is the same as shorting gold. JPM and other FED member institutions will have no choice but to lease more gold and sell it into the demand to try to cap the price increase. I believe that they have already been instructed by the FED after consolation with the Treasury to do this. This is not a conspiracy theory it is common sense. If the FDIC; i.e. tax payers are going to be expected to step in to make depositors hole in the event that these organizations become illiquid they damn well better do everything in their power to prevent that eventuality ahead of time.

Cautionary point : If central banks and money centers even hint at slowing gold leasing and selling it could unravel the Basel Accord over night and lead to a run on gold. The only reason the gold carry trades work is because gold is constantly liquidated by central and money center banks ensuring gold price stability born out of the manipulation which itself is the result of the steady gold liquidation. If these same institutions that have been leasing their gold to others begin to believe that the companies they have leased their gold to are going to become illiquid soon they may try to get their gold back out by issuing a demand for its return. This would force the reversal of the gold carry trade process, a collapse of the Basel Accord and a spike in gold prices to a level that is incalculable. It could also lead a systemic collapse of the world wide financial system. I am not saying this will happen. I am saying you need to understand the process. The possibility, plausibility and probability of this occurring is increasing.

Siochain

(02/06/2002; 11:04:04 MDT - Msg ID: 69479)

Card-House of Morgan

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/ackerman/ackerman020602.html(Partial) The concentration of gold derivatives in the hands of one institution cannot be comforting to central bankers who had originally lent their gold reserves to a wide array of bullion dealers. JP Morgan Chase, also a major counter party to Enron in a variety of energy derivatives, held 80% of the gold derivatives reported by the OCC (Office of Controller and Currency) as of 9/30/01. Although total gold derivatives reported to the OCC have declined from the peak levels of $87.6 billion at year-end 1999, JP Morgan held only 40% of the total that time, which was prior to the merger with Chase. The decline in OCC-reported gold derivatives from the 1999 year end peak is most likely due to an offloading of positions to a non-OCC reporting entity such as Enron, an Enron-like organization, or a foreign bank. Now that many have abandoned the gold derivatives trade, it appears that JP Morgan Chase has become the rear guard to defend the derivatives universe against higher gold prices.

A "rear-guard" defense? If so, Da Boyz will have their hands full today, since gold's assault on $300 during yesterday's (Tuesday's) session hardly looked like it was going to subside quietly overnight. I had projected a short-term target for the April Comex gold contract in the range 305-306, but practically speaking, anything could happen. Morgan has friends in high places, as we all know, and they have proven many times in the past that they have both the resolve and the muscle to keep the gold price from drifting upwards of $300. Sooner or later, though, even more powerful forces than Morgan and its friends were bound to prevail.

Will it be this week?

Stay tuned.

RobotGuy

(02/06/2002; 11:43:41 MDT - Msg ID: 69480)

POG

In 94-96 roughly, gold rested around the $380 an ounce level, but I really don't think the markets were as bad back then as they are today. It will take a little time, but I'm sure we'll return, and probably surpass the values of gold in our recent past. What am I saying, everybody in here already knows that. I guess I'm just trying to comfort myself in this world of denial.

RobotGuy

(02/06/2002; 12:19:06 MDT - Msg ID: 69481)

Hey Kids!!

http://www.fgmr.com/right2know.htm This is probably a repost, but there may be a few of you who haven't read it. I like it, I find it very intruiging. Almost like listening to a fable as a child, but possibly carries truth.

Titled "We have a right to know"
subject: Fort Knox Gold.

Jon

(02/06/2002; 12:57:11 MDT - Msg ID: 69482)

proforma earnings

Why does the SEC allow this? It would seem that proforma is used because GAAP calculation is less favorable. I understand CISCO is coming out with proforma - and only proforma- at market close today. They claim they beat the street estimate! Stock has reversed negative slide and probably helped the market considerably today.

RobotGuy

(02/06/2002; 13:12:17 MDT - Msg ID: 69483)

Trendsetting?

I find it very interesting that Sydney and Hong Kong show very little affect to the POG lately. It's almost like they're sitting on the sidelines. They accept thier new price, play with it ever so slightly and return it relatively unchanged. Are they just enjoying the London radical motions?

Cavan Man

(02/06/2002; 13:13:01 MDT - Msg ID: 69484)

Siochain

Thanks for the post. I believe we are at the beginning of the end of the trail. The time it will take to get to the end will depend upon other left field events like Argentina, Enron, Japan, Worldcom, Global Crossing et al and those I have mentioned which are in and have set us in motion. The author is assuming that western CB's will go along to get along. This may not be so at this juncture. I have always believed that if you invest in gold you must view the gold market thru geo-political and global monetary eye shades. In that context it is entirely clear to me that at some near point in time we will witness an entirely new gold market ( 3rd generation after the LGP)which is in fact taking shape. This new market will not be born with considerable labor pains. I am going long 100% physical. I am out of the gold stock game except for one excellent jr. in "elephant country". Good luck.

Black Blade

(02/06/2002; 13:35:54 MDT - Msg ID: 69485)

Corporate debt burdens economy

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/134400537_corpdebtweight06.html
Snippit:

A new wave of corporate bankruptcies is reminding workers and investors the fallout from the recession isn't over. A major problem remains with the huge debt load U.S. companies took on during the late 1990s.

Corporations, excluding banks and other financial companies, have more than $4.9 trillion in bond and bank debt, up $1 trillion since 1998. Some analysts think high corporate debt could keep any economic recovery in low gear for the next few years.

Black Blade: But then this was obvious. I would put more attention on the extreme derivative exposure to the tune of $51 Trillion (that's Trillion with a T) held by the major US banks - notable among them JP Morgan Chase. Also of note is that inflows of cash into mutual funds has now slowed to a dribble. It seems that people are more concerned about saving than investing. Gold could not hold onto it's gains this morning and looks to waver about the $290 to $300 range for a while. At least until equities markets tank hard, some major bankruptcy occurs, another scandal maybe, or even military or terrorist event occurs. Anything is possible. The point has been made that Gold is an insurance and wealth preservation vehicle and now the World has been reminded of it. Even the talking heads in the financial media admits it and even refers to the rising price of Gold as a result of "a flight to quality".

Pizz

(02/06/2002; 14:05:33 MDT - Msg ID: 69486)

JPM, etc.

Haven't seen quite this much thrashing for a while.

Something is up, here's what I think.

JPM's statement that they made money on recent gold rise. I'm thinking they did. Are they short gold thru leasing and Enron type derivitives. Yes - but these are not exchange futures. Each and/or most are hybrid contracts that can't be marked to market. I think JPM has been in both the spot and exchange traded futures market over the last week or possibly much longer (going long). Sure, they made money on their shorter term gold longs. Longer term leasing/derivatives would not hardly move on a $25 bump on spot/short term. If this assumption is correct, as long as the paper markets hold, they're fine - regarding gold.

I've stated previously that IMO markets do not make major trend reversals until the "smart" (read as "big") money interests are properly positioned. All JPM is doing is positioning for a trend reversal in gold (and interest rates). Remember, banks borrow short and lend long - they know this game very well.
Now, IMO they are positioning long gold (short term) and it will offset their longer term leasing and short derivitives books. Now, it appears to me that the hedged miners are going to be the ones taking it in shorts (or holding the bag) over the next couple years (that's years - not months).

The short term thrashing? I feel, like a few others, that the G7 will be up to something this weekend. A defacto $ devaluation? That's my guess. Better to announce a small, CONTROLLED dollar drop than let the markets do it for you.

Are the banks/hedge funds out of the woods yet - no way. Bush & Company are not planning get out of jail free cards or government bailouts (IMO). Why? They inherited the mess and bailouts won't solve the problem. Best to let the markets select the witches and then let them burn.

Besides, way too many people are completely underestimating Bush. He's got an out of control financial forest fire going, and my bet is he'll backfire up to half the remaining forest(JPM et al) to save the other half.

Good news? Gold's goin' up no matter what.

Pizz

Simply Me

(02/06/2002; 14:11:27 MDT - Msg ID: 69487)

(No Subject)

@Siochain
RE: your post Gold Summary (2/6/02; 10:56:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 69478)

Good presentation of both sides of the gold game to this point. But, the conclusion seems to be that this gold rally could go anywhere; up, down or sideways.

I think that if the analysis had been carried further, to take into consideration the current risks
(*1. rising public demand for gold because of loss of confidence in other investment vehicles
*2. serious economic crisis in Japan, Turkey, Egypt, Argentina, and maybe a few smaller countries not making the news
*3. the failure of Enron as proof of Greenspan's statement that no corporation is too big to fail (hence no LBMA style bailout for JPMorgan and company)
the analyst would have concluded that CB's will sell little or no gold into this rally. Maybe they will offer just enough to calm down large spikes and keep the system going a little while longer.

Say you were a CB standing atop a house of cards with your arms full of gold (financial food), and there was a very large and hungry crowd beneath your precarious pyramid. As your cards bent and fell away due to the stress of the mobs below, you might through down a few loaves of gold to try to keep them from knocking the house down while you watch for the right time to knock the house down yourself, hoping to surprise the mobs and escape with at least a portion of your gold that will allow you to survive.

simply

sector

(02/06/2002; 15:11:31 MDT - Msg ID: 69488)

@pizz Good Summary!...JPM Could be the ScapeGoat

...since they bankrolled Enron.

A controlled deval of say 19% [as Chapman's sources report] for the Canadian dollar seems about right.

But the snakes at the Fed would hold back the real dirt from the Administration until the 11th hour. That factor would boost the deval to 30% or thereabouts.

Winners are the Canadian natural resource equities and of course all gold holders.

Recall that "Nothing id confirmed [JPM's gold problems] until it is officially denied".

Chase's gold derivatives <1year maturities went up by 12% [Table 9 OCC] in the last quarter and the 1-5 year maturities didn't change and their > 5 year maturities dropped by 13.8%.

Morgan's of course dropped by >$19 Billion to an unknown party without effecting the gold market.

So there may be some truth to the idea that JPM is going long gold, although that cannot be confirmed without trading records. Did they make money yesterday? GATA's sources had them as buyers after the $292 break so yeah thay made some money.

The Japanese are still the physical key...they need metal...their economic system is bending more each day.

Carl H

(02/06/2002; 15:19:50 MDT - Msg ID: 69489)

Headline: U.S. pushing F-16 sales to Poland, Austria

As I recall Kuwait loaned out their 80 tons after a favorable F16 deal....

Poland has about 103tons
Austria has about 377tons

as of 1/2001

Carl H

(02/06/2002; 15:44:15 MDT - Msg ID: 69490)

F16's

Poland is also the largest producer of silver in Europe.

dynamite_man

(02/06/2002; 15:54:13 MDT - Msg ID: 69491)

@Carl H, re: F-16's

Very observant of you, thanks for the tip. I knew it (the needed physical) would be coming from somewhere.

Carl H

(02/06/2002; 16:39:19 MDT - Msg ID: 69492)

Interesting little math problem.

Here is an interesting little problem that I came up with the other day. I thought I would post it here for the mathematically inclined out there. I will post the solution and some comments on its implications in the next couple days.

Suppose that you invest some money in an investment with the following characteristics:

It has a 50% chance each year of going down 20%.
It has a 50% chance each year of going up by a percentage X.

If you want to get ahead at an average rate of 7% per year, what percentage must X be?

EagleOne

(02/06/2002; 17:22:51 MDT - Msg ID: 69493)

Carl H

+33.8 % ought to do it.

John Doe

(02/06/2002; 17:37:56 MDT - Msg ID: 69494)

Carl H

My probability and statistics are a bit rusty, but here goes...

One models this as an infinite series of gains and losses which reduce down to one example each of the positive and negative case (we can do this because the odds are even). Of course, there's nothing to say that, even with a perfect 50/50 distribution, and given a large enough sample, that one couldn't have 5, 10, 20, even 100 losses in a row, which would wipe the starting capital out -- game over -- however, the "odds" are against that outcome, yet not at all impossible.

a = odds of the negative event, 50% or .5
b = result after the negative event, 80% or .8
c = odds of the positive event, 50% or .5
d = target result after each paired iteration, 107% or 1.07
x = unknown gain per iteration needed to produce d

(a * b) + (c * x) = d

substituting known values and solving for x:

(.5 * .8) + (.5 * x) = 1.07

.4 + .5x = 1.07

.5x = .67

x = 1.34

In other words, one would need to achieve a 34% return on each win if a string of losses/winnings were to achieve a positive 7% over the long run.

Of course, starting with a win makes the effort a bit easier, and starting with a loss makes it a bit harder. But if the gain/loss distribution is perfectly random and perfectly even, one should converge on the desired target, providing the loss and gain percentages themselves are correct and consistent.

Black Blade

(02/06/2002; 17:47:58 MDT - Msg ID: 69495)

Gold Ready For a Retest of $300.00?

Gold has been bumping against $300.00/oz. tonight in Oz. It could try another push past $300.00/oz. What is needed is for Gold to settle above $300.00 and to establish a new floor. Currently Gold is $299.50/oz. "Interesting Times"

Black Blade

(02/06/2002; 17:50:52 MDT - Msg ID: 69496)

OOPS! Higher! Past $300.00/oz.

Gold just jump higher +$3.50 and now at $301.40/oz. Could get lively. Higher lows and higher highs?

mikal

(02/06/2002; 17:58:49 MDT - Msg ID: 69497)

@Dynamite_Man

You said : "I knew it (the needed physical[gold]) would be coming from somewhere" It's not known if Poland will sell. Austria wouldn't. But, with a little gold here, a little there, they have filled the gaps, with leasing and derivatives- standard operating procedure for the cabal over the last decade. Leasing isn't used as it's no longer profitable or risk free. Derivatives are being unwound, using physical, swaps, etc. But they won't have the needed gold in any measurable quantity!

Mr Gresham

(02/06/2002; 18:20:21 MDT - Msg ID: 69498)

300

Wow -- that was a short re-test of the 290's eh? ;)

If 300 bring Simply Me back to share our company, and 360 is supposed to bring back ANOTHER, I wonder who 600 will inspire to join us. Maybe the guys who wrote that thing in the Constitution about...well, you know what I mean.

Cavan Man

(02/06/2002; 18:23:10 MDT - Msg ID: 69499)

mikal

I don't think either country would participate. I believe Austria is bound by the Washington Agreement (if they keep to it) and Poland wants inside, infact, needs inside the EU. Add to that the fact the a EU consortium primarily led by Germany and France is developing a Euro version (more or less) of the F16 (and beyond) and there you have it. IMHO

Cavan Man

(02/06/2002; 18:24:25 MDT - Msg ID: 69500)

Last Post

Sorry for the poor editing as I am in a hurry!

Siochain

(02/06/2002; 18:25:50 MDT - Msg ID: 69501)

After Hour trading RED RED RED

http://toplist.island.com/toplist/top20.jsp?AH=onApparently Cisco so far cannot pull up market ...after hours many "top" stocks hit hard....may be contrinuting to gold rise now

They are going to have to really work hard tonight to find something else to prop up morning SM.

Cavan Man

(02/06/2002; 18:27:11 MDT - Msg ID: 69502)

PS mikal

It has been published that the Austrian CB recently bought 100 tons of AU. The Bank would not confirm but they did not deny.

slingshot

(02/06/2002; 18:36:44 MDT - Msg ID: 69503)

We're Back $300.00 Gold

Looking to see this pendulum swing more to the upside after each pullback.

Wonder what the Japanese are going to think when they see a spike of $325.00. $308.00 was great!
"The train it didn't stop going, No it just slowed down".
Locomotive Breath by Jethro Tull
Slingshot

mikal

(02/06/2002; 19:12:03 MDT - Msg ID: 69504)

@CavanMan

I believe you are right about the gold purchase. And yes, Poland needs in, but let's hope F16 purchases/gold dishoarding are not a trump card to gain Euro bloc entry. Euro market entry rules will be relaxed for expansion as before, and Poles must foresee the role of their gold, so a sale now is hardly conceivable. Gold held in reserve and Euro marked to the market price of that gold- a European idea soon to be worldwide I feel. Instead of supplying the cabal for a day or two with their little reserve, they may wish to swap gold certificates for an F16 or two- Russia or China might pay in gold.

Siochain

(02/06/2002; 19:12:19 MDT - Msg ID: 69505)

Gold, the dollar, and the economic outlook

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_02/droke020802.htmlPartial: As of last month, the cycle channels controlling gold's intermediate-term moves turned up at almost a 90 degree slope and project a near-term top near $340. Also visible on the two-year weekly chart (which is something we failed to look at when making our previous forecast) is a clear-cut head and shoulders bottom pattern with the left shoulder between $270-$295 or thereabouts, the head at gold's recent lows near $255 and the right shoulder between $270-$295 a la the left shoulder. The measuring implication of this pattern confirms the cycle channel forecast of $335-$340.

...The 40-week cycle is up until around the latter part of May, and this ensures gold should have a good first and second quarter this year. There will likely be a correction heading into autumn, but this will be quickly followed by yet another upward leg of the bull market to close out the year. A price forecast this far out is out of our reach, but suffice it say that gold should definitely be above $400, perhaps considerably higher, as we close out 2002

....The cycle channels on the weekly dollar index chart shows upside potential to 124-126 (currently just below 120) before the next major correction. The dominant dollar cycles are still in the ascending phase until the early part of the second quarter, so we should expect lofty dollar valuations until then.

...Finally, few seem to consider the effect that a series of rolling crashes will have on the financial markets and the economy-not to mention the value of the dollar-in the months ahead. A collapse in values where the public stores much of its wealth (namely the stock and real estate markets) will go a long way in absorbing whatever excess liquidity that may be out there. Bottom line: we are as far from inflation as the east is from the west at this point along the K-wave cycle. The inflation camp needs to re-evaluate their position in view of these facts.

Siochain

(02/06/2002; 19:34:27 MDT - Msg ID: 69506)

Tomorrow's SM

IHD view of tomorrow's Stock Market (Note...analysts supposedly ready to shill Cisco)
"TOMORROW
Initial jobless claims out before the open, and after the Challenger survey released earlier in the week showing 212,000 new jobs lost, this will get some attention. The big story will how CSCO is treated. It was abused after hours (along with the entire Nasdaq 100) when it did not give guidance beyond the current quarter. The numbers were good, but if no one comes to its defense tomorrow morning, the session could be ugly early on,i.e., a faster test of the next support levels.

We think we are going to see many analysts come out and up CSCO in the morning. Maybe not, but the two we heard from tonight were gung ho about the earnings. If they back it, we may get that rally up to the resistance
levels that the Dow and S&P are trying to form up to try.

In short, CSCO's numbers were good, but they did not give anything near a glowing report on where the economy is at this juncture. The earnings did nothing to instill confidence the economic recovery is going to be robust
and thus boost corporate earnings, and that is the real problem behind all of the selling.

Thus the overall picture has not changed: if CSCO is supported there may be a bounce in the indexes to test that resistance. Without more, however, the downtrend will more than likely remain in place and give us another leg down to really test those retracement levels. We have to remember
that no stock or index moves in a straight line; they trend up, down, or sideways. In a downtrend they move up to test the trendline and then succumb to a new bout of selling that takes it to newer lows.

Again, if no one comes to CSCO's aid, the selling well be brutal on the open if the after hours trading sets the tone."

Canuck

(02/06/2002; 20:03:19 MDT - Msg ID: 69507)

Good job Pizz

Keep us up to date with your thoughts buddy!

Black Blade

(02/06/2002; 20:46:15 MDT - Msg ID: 69508)

Visteon to Cut About 1,600 Jobs

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/020206/visteon_job_cuts_1.html
Snippit:

Auto Supplier Visteon to Eliminate About 1,600 Jobs As It Continues Restructuring.

Black Blade: More "Bones" for the "Bone Pile".

Golden Vanity

(02/06/2002; 20:58:32 MDT - Msg ID: 69509)

(No Subject)

Has JPM lost control of the gold paper? The chart tells all!
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/research/comp_chart.gsp?s=XAU.X+JPM

Golden Vanity

(02/06/2002; 21:04:34 MDT - Msg ID: 69510)

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/research/comp_chart.gsp?s=XAU.X+JPM

Trying again

John Doe

(02/06/2002; 21:15:50 MDT - Msg ID: 69511)

Carl H

Scratch that.

After rereading your problem, I noted the requirement to compound ANNUALLY, through thick and thin. Again, assuming an even distribution of up and down years, if one is to see a 7% return, compounded per annum, through both bad and good years combined, a higher return is required:

For example, after two years, the compounded return, assuming one up year and one down year, in either order, would be 14.49%:

1 * 1.07 * 1.07 = 1.1449

or

p * R * r = p * 1.1449

where

p = principal
R = up year result
r = down year result .8 or 80%

again, substituting and solving for R:

p * R * .8 = p * 1.1449

.8R = 1.1449

R = 1.431125

A bit more than a 43% return is required in the up years to make up for the losses in the down years and yet maintain a compounded 7% return throughout the entire period. (We'll ignore commissions, slippage, and taxes for now).

Quite the nut to overcome, isn't it? See how easy above average return investing is!...provided there are no bear markets...

Waverider

(02/06/2002; 21:18:56 MDT - Msg ID: 69512)

Administratium

Researchers have recently discovered the heaviest element known to science and have tentatively named it Administratium, with the chemical symbol AD. Administratium has no protons or electrons, thus having an atomic number 0. However, it does have 1 neutron, 125 assistant neutrons, 75 vice-neutrons, and 111 assistant vice-neutrons. This gives it an atomic mass of 312. These 312 particles are held together by a force that involves the continuous exchange of meson-like particles called morons. The morons are surrounded by vast quantities of lepton-like particles called peons.

Since it has no electrons, AD is inert. Hoever,it can be detected chemically, as it impedes every action with which it comes into contact. According to researchers, a minute amount of AD caused one reaction to take four days to complete when it would have normally occurred in less than one second. Administratium has a normal half-life of aproximately 3 years, at which time it does not actually decay but instead undergoes a reorganization in which assistant neutrons, vice neutrons, and assistant vice-neutrons exchange places. In fact, AD's mass will actually increase over time, since with each reoganization, some of the morons inevitably become neutrons, forming new isotopes. This characteristic of moron promotion has led some scientists to speculate that AD is spontaneously formed whenever moron concentration reaches a certain level. This hypothetical quality is the Critical Morass.

Administratium occurs naturally in the atmosphere and tends to concentrate at certain points, particularly government buildings and large corporations. However, scientists are warning that toxic levels have recently been detected around the Forbes Body Count area and are warning people to stay away.

Siochain

(02/06/2002; 21:23:36 MDT - Msg ID: 69513)

Who is pulling gold's strings?

http://www.mips1.net/mggold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256B5900058039?OpenDocument
Intro:"Gold market experts say the latest run in the gold price bears the hallmarks of the spike in May and September last year. Suspicion centers on three large hedge funds, any of which may also have been involved in the recent sting against the Bank of England's gold auction.....

Waverider

(02/06/2002; 21:29:27 MDT - Msg ID: 69514)

UK: Transco to cut 2,000

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3NFGMMDXC&live=true&useoverridetemplate=ZZZ99ZVV70C&tagid=ZZZPB7GUA0C⊂heading=UKSnippit:
"Union leaders are threatening to call industrial action over plans to cut more than 2,000 jobs at Transco, the UK gas pipeline operator.

It said redundancies - expected to affect mainly management and administrative staff - would not affect the mains replacement programme ordered by the Health and Safety Executive after a series of fatal house explosions."

Waverider: Another 2,000 redundancies off to..you know where (don't think you have these BB).

Waverider

(02/06/2002; 21:45:17 MDT - Msg ID: 69515)

Gold surges $8.90 to 2-year high

http://globeandmail.com/servlet/GIS.Servlets.HTMLTemplate?tf=tgam/common/FullStory.html&cf=tgam/common/FullStory.cfg&configFileLoc=tgam/config&vg=BigAdVariableGenerator&date=20020206&dateOffset=&hub=business&title=Business&cache_key=business¤t_row=4☆t_row=4#_rows=1Snippits: Globe and Mail

The price of gold surged $8.90 (U.S.) an ounce yesterday to $298.20, its highest level in two years, as commodity funds and gold producers move to unwind their hedge positions.

"You are seeing bullion as a classic store of value," Mr. Ing said.

"Hedging has become like smoking. It's socially unacceptable," Mr. Ing said.

The Japanese have been heavy buyers and the yen took another hit today," one trader said.

The Toronto Stock Exchange's gold and precious minerals index rose 3.8 per cent yesterday or 230.31 points to 6,285.40 points. Some analysts say the fair value of the gold and precious minerals index is about 7,500.

Waverider: Posted out of interest for what is being reported in the mainstream media. Cheers!

Black Blade

(02/06/2002; 22:21:06 MDT - Msg ID: 69516)

Gold pulls back after topping $300

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B1B11F2DF%2D9593%2D455E%2DB3A5%2D997F96960CB7%7D
Snippit:

Erik Gebhard, an analyst at Altavest.com warned, however, that "a high degree of volatility can be expected now that all this movement is likely attracting even more attention."

"Traders are similar to moths attracted to light -- they come out of the woodwork and can relentlessly pursue a target for no apparent reason, sometimes to their own demise," he said.

The market is likely to correct a bit on overbought conditions, but pullbacks should be bought, he said. "I wouldn't want to be short! When gold awakens it can act like a sleeping giant."

Black Blade: We have seen how fast Precious Metals can move. This morning was just an example. We have seen more intense moves in Gold such as that after the WA announcement.

Shermag

(02/06/2002; 22:33:43 MDT - Msg ID: 69517)

Cisco Lays an Egg

http://www.bloomberg.com/bbn/afterhours.htmlLooks like the after-hours market did not like John Chambers soothing words after all.

Snip

"New York, Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell in extended trading after the chief executive of Cisco Systems Inc., the largest maker of computer-networking equipment, said orders aren't coming in as fast as it has been shipping products.

Cisco rose as high as $19.39 in extended trading shortly after reporting that fiscal second-quarter sales and profit topped forecasts. The shares later dropped $1.39 from the closing price to $17.22. About 23.5 million Cisco shares traded after 4 p.m., making it the most active stock.

Some of the top U.S. computer-related companies fell during extended trading hours, including Ciena Corp., which makes optical networking equipment, and No. 1 chipmaker Intel Corp. The Nasdaq 100 Index declined 23.61, or 1.6 percent, to 1422.35 in trading of about 80 million shares, Nasdaq said. That's up from 47 million yesterday.

``It looks pretty bad,'' said Frank Husic, a managing partner of Husic Capital Management in San Francisco, which manages about $2 billion and doesn't own Cisco shares. ``As far as I can see, everything is down that's related'' to Cisco, he said. "

May make for some interesting action tomorrow.

Shermag

Black Blade

(02/06/2002; 22:39:41 MDT - Msg ID: 69518)

Gold soars as Enron fever rises

http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/story.html?f=/stories/20020206/1351827.html
Bullion up US$8 an ounce: Failure of U.S. stimulus deal latest blow for stocks

Snippit:

The price of gold shot to its highest level in almost two years yesterday in a volatile day of trading that sent investors searching for protection against another slide in stocks and the economy. News of the failure of the U.S. fiscal stimulus plan came as yet another blow to a market still struggling with fallout from the Enron accounting scandal and other stock meltdowns, said Ned Collins, head of trading at Daiwa Securities America. "It is really difficult to get someone out there to buy stocks right now. People are cynical and suspicious."

Money managers on Bay Street said that same feeling of despair is spreading on both sides of the border as investors lose faith in the chances of a strong economic rebound later this year. "It's not looking very good," said Doug Davis, president of Davis Rea Investment Counsel in Toronto. "Until people feel good, they're not going to put money in the market. They were just starting to feel good and this Enron thing comes along."

Last week South Africa's AngloGold Ltd. followed the lead of many smaller miners, cutting back its price-hedging program, a sure sign that the industry expects the gold price to keep rising. A spate of industry consolidation seems likely to curtail production over the next few years, boosting prices and profits, analysts said. Still, most investors believe gold's best attribute is its defensive nature in a bear market. With other defensive sectors like pipelines, utilities and financial services unlikely to get more relief from falling interest rates, money managers see gold as their only place to hide.

"People had big hopes for this year and it's started out badly," he said. "There's a lot of discouragement out there, and it seems we're going to have to go through this period of consolidation for maybe another few months before we really get going again."

Black Blade: I have been saying this for quite some time now - this is not a "typical" recession (if there were really such a thing). This is going to be a long and painful economic downturn. Gold is one of very few places to seek refuge. What better way for a company to go than to "dig up money" when in a deepening depression? And what better currency to hold when the fiat currency is in doubt than to have a currency (such as Gold) that has its own intrinsic value no matter where one travels. I can't blame anyone for seeking refuge in Gold in times like these. Gold is anonymous and serves as a Golden lifeboat to sail across troubled stormy economic waters. That's why I hold Gold and Silver. It's excellent insurance.

Carl H

(02/06/2002; 23:01:53 MDT - Msg ID: 69519)

John Doe - Correct

Yes, 43% is the correct answer. Your observation that this does not take into account taxes, or comissions is a good one. I would also add inflation to the list. (Oh, pardon me, Uncle Al says there is no inflation...)

I have not actually taken the time to work the problem with all these considerations included because I would have to write a short program to solve it iteratively. I would guess the answer would be 50-60%.

If you change the 7% to the 20% expectation that so many have had in recent years, then you need in excess of 80%.

There are several points here that I found very interesting:

1. I found the number surprisingly high. A 50% return is rather difficult to accomplish, espeically with a 50% probability and only a 20% downside risk.
2. Losses are deadly. It is virtually impossible to compensate for them with upside potential. Skewing the probabilities toward the upside event is probably eaiser than increasing the return on the upside or reducing the downside loss.
3. Corellary to #2 -- The boomers that have lost money in the market will probably find it impossible to recover in time for the retirement that they dreamed of (unless perhaps they buy gold/silver stocks now).
4. How many investments do you have to sift through before you find one where you can say the probabilities are truely skewed heavily. I believe that these opportunities are relatively rare? Perhaps 1 in 100? I belive that silver, and gold have the probability distributions very skewed tothe upside AND have fairly modest downside risk and huge upside potential. A very very unusual combination.
5. Incidentally, people are, on average, poor at estimating probabilities.

ski

(02/06/2002; 23:43:40 MDT - Msg ID: 69520)

PM sales increase ....

A major west coast bullion/coin dealer just reported the following:

"Our month-on-month gold bullion sales are up 40%. Month-on-month silver bars are up 100%. And finally, month-on month silver rounds are up 249%."

It is nice to know what's happening in the trenches. Due to the highly unusual forces that are at work in the PM arena, local information like the above may help us discover what is really happening in the world of PM's.

timbervision

(02/07/2002; 00:47:22 MDT - Msg ID: 69521)

FOA

I have been reading ANOTHER and FOA all night(plus many previous nights). I am becoming convinced as to the intrinsic value of physical gold ownership. I am seriously considering cashing in a portion(?major) of my RRSP's and buying gold. This is an unpleasant and mentally difficult step because it means paying the 50% government tax now and having only half the current amount available to invest in gold. But if all paper gold is going to burn then what's the point in being in gold mining stocks-- which have so far this year, and last, greatly helped me offset .com losses from two years ago.

I am still puzzled by something. Is it FOA's contention that all gold mining stocks will fail to live up to ones hopes on D-day. I can certainly see how the hedged mines will be in immense trouble, but will all unhedged mines also not be able to benefit from the expected massive rise in POG?

Black Blade

(02/07/2002; 01:33:00 MDT - Msg ID: 69522)

European Markets Awash in Red

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?uThe European markets start off lower. Gold has held up well in Asia bouncing about +/-$0.50. The markets still are reeling from Enronitis, lowered earnings, corporate bankruptcies, etc.

There are second thoughts about Cisco's phoney earnings yesterday. They apparently had some huge writeoffs on inventory last quarter and declared that inventory obsolete. Abracadabra! The inventory is sold and presto change-o, the sales are recorded as pure profit. Yet another accounting scam is exposed. This is unfortunately legal, however, it demonstrates the lengths that these crooks will go to decieve their shareholders. "Interesting"

- Black Blade

Simply Me

(02/07/2002; 01:34:16 MDT - Msg ID: 69523)

@ Mr. Gresham

Thanks for the welcome back! You honor me, to mention my name in the same sentence with Another.

I've been gone simply because I had nothing to contribute to this forum. And that's not proud ignorance...just an admission of stupidity. Others here (with a nod to you and Black Blade) are much better than I at market analysis, economic forecasting and news reporting. I've been lurking, but since the Christmas season, my business has needed my full attention. (I'm neglecting about 30 emails right now.)

After a couple of years of reading and learning here at this forum, I came to the firm conviction that what our friends Another and FOA have predicted for gold would indeed happen. The only questions were timing, circumstances, and numbers. So I waited and watched.

I think the circumstances are right and the timing is now. The numbers...well, we'll see. But $300 was a magic breakthrough point for anyone who watched gold languish in the $250 to $275 cage for sooooo looong.

What do you think will be the magic number to make paper burn? $320? $360 (Another's number?) Maybe higher?

$30,000.00 per ounce just might be enough to induce Thomas Jefferson himself to make an appearance! I just hope the entire world economy doesn't have to come to a screeching halt to cause such numbers....but I'm afraid that's the forecast.

With a warm golden glow,
simply me

Simply Me

(02/07/2002; 01:59:07 MDT - Msg ID: 69524)

A belated Thank You!

I must now make up for a glaring sin of omission.

Thank you, Mr. Kosares, for the lovely Gold Sovereign you so graciously awarded me in a contest last fall. It arrived in perfect condition and is now a part of the family heirlooms. My sincere apologies for my tardiness in acknowledging the receipt.

Thank you, also, TownCrier, for your part in choosing my post as one of the winners.

(pause) Clink!
simply

Topaz

(02/07/2002; 03:07:06 MDT - Msg ID: 69525)

Simply me: timbervision

Simply,
The latest uptick has certainly caught the imagination eh? - let's hope it's not a case of "the little engine that couldn't" regarding $300. Notional losses are sure to be mounting with hedged Aussie Miners and must be disturbing - Spot in A$ is currently A$590 odd ....best to you.
timbervision,
In his absence may I humbly offer the following summary of FOA's take on Stocks-v-Physical:- Before Gold is "freed" the current price setting arena (LBMA, Comex) must be seen to fail as the weight of paper forces the market into gridlock. Physical and Paper gold will go their separate ways. As Stocks are a derivative of the paper financial system he anticipates they will "burn" along with Paper Au. When the dust settles, Physical Golds status will be restored as the Wealth of Ages (and some) with all the attendant taxes, royalty's imposed on those who mine it.

Bottom line: A Physical mindset - steel the nerves for any $Spot price as this plays out....and good luck!

Topaz

(02/07/2002; 04:01:08 MDT - Msg ID: 69526)

Dominoes line up.

http://au.dailynews.yahoo.com/finance/20020206/reutersfinance/1012955893-1879597118.htmlMacquarie Bank is active in the Au mining finance sector here in Oz----Margin calls-----lets watch!

Topaz

(02/07/2002; 04:33:40 MDT - Msg ID: 69527)

Hangin' tough@$301

The absence of the goon squad in this market makes me think the "BUYERS" are from that select group Another refers to as - those who WILL be able to collect Bullion on demand - ie: OIL.
If said Buyers are in the Market, the Makers are NOT going to fractionally cover the Paper -- Nooo! it will be allocated 100%. Not so the Johnny-come-lately Mutual Fund.

Thoughts?

Simply Me

(02/07/2002; 05:09:53 MDT - Msg ID: 69528)

'Oy, Topaz!

Nice to see your name in the ranks again, Topaz. I may have missed your posts...but methinks it's been awhile since I've seen your name here.

RE $300 POG: Your caution is right. As long as the paper game goes on, there's the possibility it will trounce our little party. But...("Everyone I know's got a big 'but'." Pee Wee Herman)...there's no doubt there's been a huge sea-change in the economic climate. I wonder if paper has the trouncing strength it once did.

Been up working all night. Gotta go now.
Golden Dreams to You,
simply

Henri

(02/07/2002; 06:10:05 MDT - Msg ID: 69529)

$300

My thought on why the cabal decided to let gold run 300+ is that it is to punish Anglo for leaving the fold. They now said they will unwind their large hedge position (and/or forward sales?). Or perhaps it is to encourage new forward sales from small miners?

I have some AU that I bought before the discovery of this site and it also predates GATA. I am at breakeven now and am thinking of cutting it loose. Underwater before that. If gold runs they will have to suffer to close the hedges anyway.

Any thoughts?

Henri

(02/07/2002; 06:29:40 MDT - Msg ID: 69530)

further

As someone mentioned already a higher POPG also punishes Normandy's new owners who will have to close the hedgebook at higher prices. For them I am thinking it doesn't matter because production is gaining a better spot price...just a wash on assets until the book is closed. Perhaps for Anglo as well. Dang its all so complicated...wish I could see more clearly.

If all shorts are under beyond hope anyway, what matter does it make if they let it (POPG) run to the moon?

Cavan Man

(02/07/2002; 07:15:32 MDT - Msg ID: 69531)

Worldcom next?

"According to Enron's most recent annual report, the
firm made more money trading derivatives in the year
2000 alone than Long-Term Capital Management made in its
entire history. Long-Term Capital Management generated
losses of a few billion dollars; by contrast, Enron not
only wiped out $70 billion of shareholder value, but
also defaulted on tens of billions of dollars of debts.
Long-Term Capital Management employed only 200 people
worldwide, many of whom simply started a new hedge fund
after the bailout, while Enron employed 20,000 people,
more than 4,000 of whom lost their life savings as
Enron's stock plummeted last fall.

"In short, Enron makes Long-Term Capital Management look
like a lemonade stand."

How many Enrons are out there? Maybe many.

Excerpeted from Bill Bonner's DR

Belgian

(02/07/2002; 07:29:48 MDT - Msg ID: 69532)

POG

Analysts and Gold-authorities stampede to offer a variety of explanations for the recent "price"-move for the "commodity", gold . None of the above bothered to remind about the monetary character of Gold and automatically neglect the "value" of Gold. But sub-consciously, they all know that Gold is much more than simply a commodity ! Why should they otherwise make such a fuss for a meager price-rise of 20% (253$ >> 303$). It is the paper-leverage (miningshares) on that 20% POG-rise, that is producing all the media commotion.

Problem is that these analysts/goldauthorities, don't have a clue why POG is suddenly increasing in price (value comes later). Flight to quality...Enron jitters...hedgestop...hedgefund raid...etc. Forget about the dollar-strength...CB goldsales...cabalesque derivatives...etc. Any instant explanation is good enough for letting the show run.

The point I would like to make is : Nobody even suspects that GOLD might have a very big surprise in store ! With "surprise", I mean "the" TG map or even part of it.
Yes even in Euroland, analysts and goldbugs, don't buy the euro/gold/oil concept ! All, do prefer, to keep running like chicken without a head. For the simple reason that advising Physical Gold in Possession is NOT generating commissions on trade for the middlemen (brokers). Hyping and bashing goldshares is much more profitable for those who choose to make a living as a financial broker.

Trade in Physical Gold can never generate such vast amounts of profits/loses for the present wide range of participants. The idea to change this existing paper circus is the "real" flight/strive to Quality. An inevitable evolution from sick price-trading to value-trading. For Gold and stocks as well. That's why this paper-price-trading must reach extreme excess first, before a "change" for the good can emerge. POG volatility "must" increase before the general public starts to understand (realize) what is happening and more important "WHY" it is happening.

To the point : What happens if trading in goldmine-stocks is suspended overnight ? Let us ask any Argentinian saver (and many others) how it feels. They don't only close banks but even stockmarkets, don't they (9/11) ?
These banks and stockmarket closures had different reasons and results. What might be the reason/result for trading halts in goldmining ? And what guarantee do we have that it will never happen ? And will we be happy with a TG like explanation when all trading is halted ? And when our goldmine shares can't be sold...with what are we going to buy the Physical ? Ask the Enron people. Is LBMA to be compared with Enron ? 600 tonnes of paper gold against 12 tonnes of Physical (factor 50 x)?
Do all goldmine shareholders/GAMBLERS know if their favorite will/can survive such a trading halt probability ?

After all, who still wants to *HOLD* shares or any other kind of paper after what we are experiencing today ?
We are condemned to drive up the rotational speed of gambling/trading and *Holding* is out and demod� !
In other words : systemic, self-destructive hysteria.
That's what TG's advise on *Physical Gold in Possession* is all about. During this 2 1/2 years of POG bottoming we had an increase in price-jumps : 2$ >> 6$ >> 9$...watch out for the 50$ >> 100$ and trading halt !?

escapethematrix

(02/07/2002; 07:31:07 MDT - Msg ID: 69533)

Duisenberg to Step Down as ECB President in July 2003 (Update6)

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APGKCRhTVRHVpc2VuSnippet:

Frankfurt, Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Wim Duisenberg, who presided over a 23-percent drop in the value of Europe's single currency and a stagnating economy, said he will step down in July 2003. No successor was named.

Trichet, 59, ``would probably be better for the euro,'' said Julian Jessop, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in London. ``He's better at representing his bank. There's a perception that he's more dovish, less focused on just fighting inflation and more on broader objective.''
Naming Trichet, who helped make the French central bank independent of political control, would be ``very positive,'' Italian Economy Minister Giulio Tremonti told reporters in Rome.

TG: How about a Trail Walk as to what to expect between now and then?? It certainly doesn't seem like the World economy or our "paper" charade system can scrape by 'til then.

CoBra(too)

(02/07/2002; 08:24:36 MDT - Msg ID: 69534)

@CM - The Next Enron?

Hello CM,

reminds me of MK's message a few weeks back ... only one Enron away from the POG exploding.

The question probably is when will the first major counter-party implode weighed down by liquidity problems surfacing in some of the underlying derivative positions.

@ Sir Belgian, your constant hammering on physical possession only, is starting to make total sense, as A/FOA's long time thesis. Though, up to now holding proxys
of gold in the ground was extremely rewarding. And I'll still take a chance in holding some proxies.

Best regards - cb2

RobotGuy

(02/07/2002; 09:08:16 MDT - Msg ID: 69535)

Thresholds

Perhaps one of you kind posters could enlighten me by explaining the significance of different threshold levels. Glass ceilings etc., are these just hypothetical limits, or are there some facts or reason behind them? I can understand someone with a large holding saying "When gold reaches this level, I'm selling!" and the effect it would have momentarily. If these limits are calculated by means of various equations, why wouldn't these 'limits' be more like 304.23 or something more tangeable than a rounded number? To sum up my question, why is 300 such a big deal? Don't get me wrong, it's good to see, but I don't realize the significance.

sector

(02/07/2002; 09:57:24 MDT - Msg ID: 69536)

@RobotGuy...$300 "Threshold"

Since the math is easier to calculate, the option/futures wagers are a tad easier to calculate so the "threshold" stands out. Also easier to add gains/losses.

Some call it psychologically important. Perhaps it has to do with human nature...the confidence thing.

What IS significant is the longer we stay at or near $300 per ounce the LESS likely we are to go back to $295 since that price will be viewed more and more as a bargain and savy buyers [read Japanese and anyone else in the Middle to Far East] will quickly grab the ounces.

By the same "logic" the possibility of $325 actually seems achievable now that we are swimming in $300 waters. So the buyers must be ever vigilant to keep pog from "getting away from them"

All the while those who hold long dated gold shorts are sinking deeper into what Eddie George [BOE] said was the "abyss".

What IS the "abyss"? POG controls allot more that folks think. Inflation perceptions, the dollar index and interest rates. So when the price of gold takes off those other things get hammered.

And if one has a really big bet [$20 Trillion] that interest rates won't be volatile, then one is in deep trouble...in spite of denial press releases to the contrary [JPMC].

Cavan Man

(02/07/2002; 10:01:00 MDT - Msg ID: 69537)

sector

The IRD's are the real achilles heel due to size of position(s)? When should the music stop?

RobotGuy

(02/07/2002; 10:21:06 MDT - Msg ID: 69538)

@Sector

Thank-you, I have a feeling from your post that the significance is mostly psychological. As humans we set goals and limits, I guess that is sort of what I've been thinking all along. In a way it's like New Years eve, or watching the odometer in your vehicle roll over. It's not realistically that significant, but as humans we make it significant and it controls our behaviour. A stepping point between where we are and where we'd like to be. I have a feeling we might see this level for a few days before advancing as most are expecting it to do.
One thing I always keep in mind is that people may sell anything investment related at a certain price, but in order to sell something, someone must buy it. Those individuals who buy are also setting new limits and expectations for what thev've purchased, so they'll have a tendancy to hold off until they feel they've reached their goal. If the volume is high at a certain level, it suggests to me that there may be a higher level to follow shortly thereafter. Of course unless the buying is lemming style and involves no research, then we are setting ourselves up. There is only a small representation in this forum of people who admire the precious metals, there are many more out there who are obviously betting on the same outcome.

sector

(02/07/2002; 10:26:49 MDT - Msg ID: 69539)

@CavanMan...Music Appreciation Requires Training

http://www.ganoksin.com/MetalCalc/weight.htmBehold the above site where one can calculate almost any units conversion...metric to US...Troy to metric etc.

Using that site, the exact weight of deliverable COMEX gold according to COMEX warehouse stocks data is:

5704.702 pounds of gold...83, 283 troy ounces "eligible" of .999 fine...a small armored car would do nicely for the whole lot.
Since the refineries are working ouvertime it seems unlikely that large supplies can quickly materialize.
+++++++++++++++
When will the Music start? Will we have time to exit the paper train?
I think it's a function of confidence, denial and propaganda.

The bad guys at CNBC are masters at propaganda, the power of denial is always underestimated and investor confidence takes time to die. Therefore we will have time to exit paper gold for physical.

The real question is [and theis is the toughie] how high will pog go? There WILL be a time just after the rocket launch where purchasable gold in ounce form will just dissappear.

Obstfeld, an expert on currency crises, says at this point ALL the available stocks of the currency [metal in this example] are obtained in an instant at the supported price [today's]. Then the authorities give up the support and gold rises quickly [days] to the new equiblibrium level.

History suggests a 10 fold jump to $2800 per ounce. This was rthe level after Nixon's 1971 deval.

So if the equiblibrium pog level is to be $2800 per ounce, will miner shares also rise by that amount? It's hard to envision CNBC pumping gold stocks as they did for the techiees.

Don't know. I do know that the banks that have favor now will be out of favor and the miners will have the upper hand as financial enterprises--a role reversal of sorts.

CoBra(too)

(02/07/2002; 10:45:44 MDT - Msg ID: 69540)

Morgan Did Not Lose Money On Their Gold Shorts, Their PARTNERSHIPS did!

last nights heading of Bill Murphy's editorial - What goes around comes around - or so they say!

... and from tomorrow on we'll watch the Olympics together -
MK - as good ole Austria is expecting some more gold ... medals.

Let the games begin ... cb2

Belgian

(02/07/2002; 10:52:58 MDT - Msg ID: 69541)

Duisenberg W.

In the reporting of Duisenberg's announcement (departure-2003) there was a foto session of him (Wim) in the Dutch central bank GOLD-vaults. If anyone should still doubt that the euro is to be associated with Gold (as good as)! Details dear Watson, details .

Cavan Man

(02/07/2002; 11:06:45 MDT - Msg ID: 69542)

Belgian

Can you provide a link to the photo?

CB2: Can we get a pix of you in a gold vault :>)...? Reading Bill B. is like breathing the fresh air at an Austrian ski resort yes?

Belgian

(02/07/2002; 12:35:36 MDT - Msg ID: 69543)

@ CBII ....The Physical and its proxies

OK snakeman, let's do some calculus and financial introspection, together...just the two of us.
During this POG bottoming and mini run of 20% (253$ >> 303$)
we may assume that very few (ore none) Physical holders in the US dollar block, made any substantial appreciation on their yellow in possession. This in very sharp contrast with all other Physical Advocates outside the dollar zone.
In Euroland we have quite a different picture :
ATL POG ('99) 230 � to 330 � today (plus 43%) in comparaison with a 100% profit on the goldminebag.

The main question for all mine-gamblers is "if" and "when" they will shift those mine-profits into Physical ?

1/ All linear thinkers who refer to the past 20 years of POG history, will NEVER buy any Physical !!! Never !
These goldbugs sleep with the POG 600$ target and the 10 bagger syndrome. Fair enough.

2/ All double players with Physical and mines (or other paper) are constantly tormented with the POG-4/5 figure (thousands) obsession (TG-inspired). They own (at best) a Very small amount of Physical with very little appreciation so far and a present 100% profit (paper that is !!!) on their mine holdings/*trade/*gambles.
This group of goldphiles is speculating (!) on a slow and disciplined increasing of POG with the hope (not conviction) that they can sell mineholding at 600$ and their Physical holdings will appreciate into the thousands of dollars per ounce. They made some compromise with the treasure island map. Some of them might even jump the mining ship somewhere halfway and scramble for some runaway Physical in extremis.

3/ An absolute minority (of the general public), inspired by A/FOA who has stored the bulk of its wealth in Physical Gold during a recent period of accumulation (2 years). The A & A type with 90% Physical and 10% Gold Fields for 70% of their wealth.

Goldmine holders/traders should take into consideration that at a certain POG level, goldmining does change dramatically. Once big profits are coming in on a sustained basis...lower ore grades (reserves) are mined as to preserve the richer ores for future bad times. The leverage on POG declines drastically. And POG values relatively faster than the goldmines. Sort of reversed hedging.
All this under the condition that POG is allowed to revalue progressively. Wich I personally do exclude categorically.

In analogy of all who signed the Washington Agreement...a goldmine trading halt could be agreed in case of dollar collapse emergency (US bank collapse). Such sudden and totally unexpected International Agreements can emerge out of the deep blue ! Remember that the US declared an international war and that Europ (Chirac) China and Russia, already answered loud and clear. India urged not to interfere in their tighthening relationship with Russia and China ! Don't underestimate the serieux of this geopolitical situation ! This to emphasize the probability of drastic and unexpected repercussions on the dollar situation with the euro/gold/oil-alternative concept.

I surely don't wish for a trading halt in goldmines. And BTW, who dares to gamble the bulk of its wealth in one or more goldpits ? The absurd valuation of Gold is the ultimate invitation for a once in a lifetime opportunity to store the bulk of one's wealth into that precious refined in possession. Repeat : once in a lifetime opportunity NOW ! This is nothing less than a rocksolid argumentation for leaving the goldmine temptation aside. NOW more than ever before !

As an aside : Imagine goldmines getting the status of oil producers with Regulations and Tax control. A possible furture similarity wich will make the underground yellow less shiny than it seems today ! ?

Belgian

(02/07/2002; 12:59:59 MDT - Msg ID: 69544)

@ CM - Duisenberg's Goldpictures.

Sorry but it was a Dutch reportage on the tele. A netpicture might pop up later ?
Duisenberg (+ later comments in intervieuws) stated that he wants to have the euro gain "dept" and broader acceptance worldwide. The French (semi imperialits) are impatiently waiting to professionalize that euro-job. Cool Dutchman Wim wanted to calm down that French europassion a bit.

There is a significant intensification on the $/� reporting during euro daytime ! As if the dollar is suspecting some sneeky euro-tactics ? Using Gold (POG) very, very cautiously to avert dollar-pressure, without any willingness to crush/crash the dollar in a brutal obvious manner. This vieuw is negative if POG returns to the 280$ zone.

CoBra(too)

(02/07/2002; 13:23:21 MDT - Msg ID: 69545)

Gold vs Proxy - Agrreed in parts ...

@ Belgian - you're to be commended for your stamina and more important for your input.

I still hope you'll forgive me for my western (european- as it is) thinking, in lieu of any other measure, barometer or indicator of true value.

Pouncing out the reality of gold ounces - a ploy I've been trying to get across for an eternity - is easily accepted when all else fails to hold promise of gain - though, then again try to convince the main (street) invincible idiots of CNBC and their ilk. ...

... and prol'ly think about - a great old lady of rhymes - Mechtilde von Lichnowsky (a century ago):

Nie gestatten, Wanderratten
revidieren von Papieren
wenn sie �ber Landesgrenzen
ziehen.

oder

Ziemlich schlecht
schreibt der Hecht
Liebesbriefe in der Tiefe
doch die Hechtin liest sie
hocherfreut.

oder

Saure Mienen
von Sardinen
kann man sehn
wenn man zehn
in eine Dose steckt
wo sieben liegen...

und so weiter ... wir wer'n nicht gescheiter - though I feel we're at the end Spiel ...

Thanks for your consideration and I apologise for trying to be "wise" - regards to you - cb2

RobotGuy

(02/07/2002; 13:59:33 MDT - Msg ID: 69546)

Milking Phase

North American markets appear to be in a milking phase these last few days. Up in the morning down in the afternoon. Watch yourselves lemmings, it's very hard to win in this type of environment. I have no idea how long investors will try this for, but whoever is losing on a daily basis is probably going to get disgruntled sooner or later. Gold on the other hand is starting to go up a little after the market close.

Trapper

(02/07/2002; 14:01:32 MDT - Msg ID: 69547)

The end of paper

Sir Belgian, I have read Another FOA and TG on the idea that paper money and gold paper will all become worthless when the POG reaches a certian very high level. I'm not as sure as you folks are. I agree that paper money will always go to zero someday, but in the US we have not had a complete faliure since our war Between the States. The southern paper was forced to zero by the North's win but it was replaced by the North's new paper. I'm sure that things can and will get very bad but for our goverment to keep control the people will have to be given a medium of exchange i.e. money. The new money could be AU & AG but where will that leave us who NOW have AU & AG money in our hole in the floor. We could all be laid low by a goverment flood of new AU & AG money those value will be set by goverment decree rather that 5the free market.Control is thier game. I see another goverment attempt for some digital money making gold stocks still having good value in the end. Good day.
RJ

uponroof

(02/07/2002; 14:21:40 MDT - Msg ID: 69548)

The case for gold stocks

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/klombies/020602/klombies020602.htmlForgive the attention to PAPER stocks for a moment. I know how sensitive some are to paper at this site but I believe we are about to experience a once in a lifetime opportunity and all thoughts should be considered. I am a 40-40-20 man which means 40% in physical and stocks, 20% in options. That said here goes.
********

The Klombies piece (above link) has an intersting bit about the leverage of gold stocks:

"...At bear market lows for gold there is very little speculative interest in the gold mining shares. The ratio between gold and the XAU tends to move up to about 5:1. At bull market highs, however, this ratio tends to move down to around 3:1.

Within the range of these two levels- 5:1 and 3:1- one can see why the gold mining equity sector can be both punishing and extremely rewarding. At $300 per ounce for gold the XAU can easily range from a low of around 60 to a high of 100, depending on the market's view of whether that price for gold is 'low' or 'high'. At present the ratio is recovering from the extreme lows reached at the end of 2000 and is nicely confirming the current strength in gold itself..."
********

Klombies does a nice job of marrying TA and fundamentals in his report, but what about the broader underlying market factors?...

Here is a repost pertaining to this very issue (with thanks to loyd)...

"The Morgan Stanley analyst recently sent out a big overview report. He pulled together all his little reports into a big report and made it into a 30 page tome.

One of his key conclusions was that everyone should have 4%-5% in his metals recommendations.

Good Lord.....I almost laughed.

"everyone"? I know he's trying. And perhaps he's not been through even one cycle, they being interminable, nearly lifelong affairs and that he is probably a best student and business school whiz; but gee ... knows he what he prescribes?

Consider Fidelity alone. They manage over $850 billion. If they were to take his advise, they would purchase up to $42 billion of gold mining company shares. But we all know that the entire global gold industry has a market capitalization just short of that amount.

...and there are so many other investors to satisify..."
********

Given the tiny 40+ billion dollar market cap of the entire gold mining industry. (yes read that one more time, $40+ billion buys all the gold mines in the world) we conclude the market is easily influenced. (a side note...even if Central Banks decide to sell ALL their gold, that in itself is only $375 billion)

Putting that into perspective, AOL market cap is 104 billion, GE's is 359 billion, Microsoft's is 330 billion, TYCO is 44 billion and JPM's is 46 billion (and dropping quickly).

GOLD IS A TEENY TINY MARKET! This includes all (3) entities, physical, futures and stocks.

Yet at the same time it is the most well known commodity in the world in terms of safety and 'value'. Gold benefits from years of trusted service through all generations from the start of recorded history.

In short it has an excellent reputation which may overwhelm anything negative the last experience of bubble bursting has left on the herd's psyche. 'Gold' is something grandfather believed in, the perfect antithesis and balm for the now openly loathed dot.com stocks.

Once the gold sector heats up, I believe the herd will evaluate and commit with fevered frenzy. Remember, we're not talking about a large movement to pump shares up....only a fraction of what was spent on techs will suffice nicely. We shall soon see me thinks.

Cheers

bob leppo

(02/07/2002; 14:39:49 MDT - Msg ID: 69549)

Japan is the second Enron

Japan plus Enron equals POG+I just read in todays NYTimes an article about the Japanese government bond (10 year) going down so much that the interest rate is up to over- wait for it- 1.5%. I think the Japanese governments willingness to see the yen weaken is catching up with it in the form of rising inflation fears (hence dropping long term bond prices). Meanwhile the price of gold in yen is in a vigorous bull market and as we have all read the Japanese are increasing their gold purchases. The NYTimes article also said that the Japanese government had marketed a chunk of short term government paper (6 months I think) and the issue was 140 times over subscribed- that is there was 2 Trillion US dollars worth of demand for this paper...Wow!...

I think the odds are good that Japanese buying of gold along with the impact of Enron in shaking investor confidence in the prudence of having so much money tied up in stocks will be the two most important drivers of the price of gold up from here. Of course I am talking my game as I am long the Comex gold future (got a stop on @ half at $296 as a result of bitter recent experience FWIW)

Black Blade

(02/07/2002; 14:40:13 MDT - Msg ID: 69550)

Gold Holds Over $300.00

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metalsGold is holding up well at $302.40 up $3.40 (currently). If this level can be maintained we might have established a new floor for support that we can build off of toward $325.00 or better for a new support level. Hopefully into the $380.00 to $420.00 range (or higher) in a few weeks. The Global Economy is toast and people (outside of the US) are discovering Gold as a wealth preservation vehicle (note Japan, Russia, China, etc.). When those in the US wake up the price will be much higher and like Wall Street analysts, they too will be late to the party. Then Gold could easily launch to $600.00/oz. and beyond.

- Black Blade

sector

(02/07/2002; 14:57:13 MDT - Msg ID: 69551)

The Japanese 900 Pound Gorilla and O'Neill's Tears

February 7, 2002

Japanese Turn From Banks to Gold

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Filed at 12:23 p.m. ET

TOKYO (AP) -- With their banks battling a recession and bad loans, some Japanese, worried about the imminent end of a blanket guarantee on their savings, are sinking their money into something that looks more solid -- gold.

Sales of $10,000 gold bars at Tanaka Kikinzoku Jewelry in downtown Tokyo have more than doubled in the past several months, company officials said Thursday. They refused to give specific figures, but said some customers have bought as many as 40 of the 2.2-pound bars.

``The end of the government insurance on savings is a big factor,'' jewelry company spokesman Masakazu Tanaka said. ``People are looking for a secure place to put their money.''

The trend in Japan is contributing to a worldwide increase in the demand for gold. Gold futures broke above $300 an ounce for the first time in two years Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, before easing later in the day, and traded above $300 in London Thursday.
..."
++++++++++++++

Well, well, well! The NYT's Associated Press writing about gold.
The Treasury men must have fallen asleep on the job.

No wonder SECTREAS O'Neill was rumoured to have "cried" [with real tears] in his Senate testimony today.

uponroof

(02/07/2002; 15:22:11 MDT - Msg ID: 69552)

sector

Heard about O'Neill's Senate tears.

The stress must be enormous.

This guy is a square peg in a round hole if ever there was one. Lying, kiniving, and corruption is not his forte. I still think he will come clean (eventually) as you perhaps do. For now he is convinced, that for the best of the country, he must go along with this 'policy' which breaks his heart....not to mention possibly ruin his career and reputation. Can't wait to read his book years from now.

Black Blade

(02/07/2002; 15:26:21 MDT - Msg ID: 69553)

BANK'S $29 TRILLION DERIVATIVES BET IS VERY RISKY By JOHN CRUDELE

http://www.nypost.com/business/40850.htm
February 7, 2002 -- IS J.P. Morgan Chase too big to bail?

Snippit:

Last week I posed the more common question: Was the bank too big to fail, or allowed to fail by the government. It's a logical question since J.P. Morgan Chase has had a string of bad luck recently, including involvement with Enron.

The bank says its luck hasn't been as bad as it looks, and I'll get to that in a minute. But J.P. Morgan chief exec William Harrison admitted publicly yesterday that the bank had assumed too much risk in dealings with Enron.

But I saved potentially the most ominous and admittedly most confusing of J.P. Morgan Chase's bets for last - derivatives. Lot and lots and lots of derivatives. Enough derivative exposure, in fact, to dwarf the entire gross domestic product of the United States. Just how massive is Morgan's derivative gamble? Get this - it has a potential, or notional, value of $29 trillion. That is in addition to net credit exposure of $94.7 billion.

Trillions in derivatives. As in three times the nation's entire annual gross domestic product. Here is another comparison to consider: Citigroup, another giant bank, only has $9 trillion in derivative exposure.

Says Jim Grant of Grant's Interest Rate Observer: "So dominant is Morgan Chase in the derivatives market that its exposures look like typographical errors."

Black Blade: Looks like Japan-style economic problems are about to land on US shores. I have harped on this in the past. This is a very ugly situation that will extinguish the US economy if these derivatives blowup on JPMC.

BTW, the CEI William Harrison and others at JPMC said that they "did not lose money on Gold trades". Of course not - they simply moved subsidiaries and partnerships offshore (mostly to London) when the law required disclosure of derivative exposure in corporate reports.

Black Blade

(02/07/2002; 15:44:30 MDT - Msg ID: 69554)

Gold's swift rally may spark scramble

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B3FCD2375%2D0D0E%2D4B9F%2D8102%2D848F0301E960%7D&siteid=mktw
Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - Now comes the hard part in the $300-plus gold rally: finding the neglected mining stocks. Problem is, there aren't many. The entire category of gold mining stocks, from the Newmont Mining giants to the Vancouver-listed juniors, doesn't exceed $50 billion of market capitalization. "Up until three weeks ago the entire market cap of the book was smaller than McDonalds," said John Hathaway, whose $30 million Tocqueville Gold Fund is up 29 percent since Jan. 2.

Yet gold's optimists, having waited almost six years for a sustained rally in bullion prices, are not about to give up. Some see the price of the metal making $20 and $30 daily moves. As Franco-Nevada co-founder Pierre Lassonde explained to me, each $10 rise in gold's price magnifies an established mining company's pretax cash flow.

Anglogold and other hedgers, like Barrick Gold, are likely to reduce their so-called hedge books if gold prices continue their rally. "Gold shares traditionally have an option premium built into them, because of the gold they have in reserve," Bryan says from New York. "That's why they tend to be so expensive on a cash-flow basis. But as they sell forward, they lose that option premium. The ones that put an end to it could regain that premium."

Black Blade: Actually if the POG rallies hard, then the mega-hedgers will be outta business. The day of the hedger is over and any Gold company that insists on hedging now will likely face shareholder lawsuits. There will be no additional supply from mines for several years anyway due to the length of time to permit, start up and mine the ore. In the US, mining is dead and will always be so as it is much easier to explore and mine overseas. Add to that the anti-mining culture in the US and it becomes obvious that the existing Gold mines in the US are likely to be among the last. Since the US is the second largest producer in the World, there will be a decreasing supply of Gold in the short to intermediate term. Unfortunately a lot of miners better practice saying the words "do you want fries with that sir?"

John Doe

(02/07/2002; 15:47:07 MDT - Msg ID: 69555)

Clint H

Your problem set me to thinking where the equity markets have come to and where they "should" be, if things were to make economic sense.

Assuming that the beginning of the bull run started near fair value in early 1982, using 7% compounded growth the S&P500 should have gained about 300%, dividends included. Instead, the S&P was up about 1600%, with the only down year prior to 2000 being a 3% loss in 1990. An impressive record to be sure, but likely neither sustainable nor repeatable.

It's getting to be the same old litany, but during this period we have seen the degeneration of "investment", the rise of gross speculation, the installation of the Greenspan Put, accelerating global monetary and economic volatility, currency & gold rigging, the perversion of accounting, Bubble TV, falsification of economic statistics, a massive and ongoing trade deficit, rapid debt expansion, a collapse in interest rates, and the floating of companies that have never made a dime, never will, and apparently, were never expected to. Again, an impressive record, but not really sustainable or repeatable.

By the above reasoning, the S&P is overvalued by something like 300%, meaning a fall by three-fourths, or from around 1100 to around 300, would bring us near the long term 7% growth line. Interestingly, drawing a trend line from the early 80's initial, upward-sloping base to present induces the same conclusion.

Black Blade

(02/07/2002; 15:54:22 MDT - Msg ID: 69556)

Administration Concerned About Excessive GSE Debt

http://www.comstockfunds.com/index.cfm?act=Newsletter.cfm&CFID=517917&CFTOKEN=34302899&category=Comstock%20Daily%20Comment≠wsletterid=651&menugroup=Home&aol=1
Snippit:

The Bush administration has now officially joined us in being concerned about excessive amounts of debt. In its fiscal 2003 budget document the administration said that total debt outstanding for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (known as GSEs) had climbed from $518 billion in September 1997 to $1.26 trillion in September 2001, an annual growth rate of 25% a year. The debt helped fund a 150% increase in mortgage asset portfolios and a 40% rise in guarantees of mortgage-backed securities. The report noted that while the credit quality of the loans held or guaranteed by the two GSEs had benefited from the strong housing market, the companies had actively increased their purchases of riskier sub-prime loans. The report added that although both companies tried to limit the risks through various risk-management measures, these techniques "do not eliminate all the risk associated with funding long-term, mostly fixed-rate assets that have uncertain payment streams."

The administration report also stated that, "Furthermore, the hedging transactions transform credit or interest-rate risk into counterpart risk (the risk that a counterparty of a hedging transaction fails to honor the contract). Thus, the GSEs management of counterparty risk is of increasing importance."

Black Blade: Many have said that the next bubble to pop will be the "Housing Sector". As the economy crumbles, we could see a lot of risk for these GSE's. The question is will the Government bail out these counter-parties? The government has stated recently that these are not "Government Guaranteed". In view of the sinking US economy, it looks more like Japan all the time. Looks like another scandal sits right around the corner. We live in "Interesting Times".

Strad Master

(02/07/2002; 16:00:44 MDT - Msg ID: 69557)

Interesting site

http://www.musil.blogspot.comI don't know how many of you enjoyed the long posting I put up about Enron the other night, but the guy who wrote it - Robert Musil - seems to be particulary well-informed about such things. Above is a link to the site where he periodically posts his thougts on a variety of subjects. (Most recently they center around Enron.) Some of you may find it to be interesting and illuminating and so may wish to bookmark it. .

Gold seems to be steadily percolating upward! Via con Dios!!

Belgian

(02/07/2002; 16:05:30 MDT - Msg ID: 69558)

Gold....something grandfather believed in !

I liked this one upon the roof. And indeed, you gave some evidence of how teeny tiny this goldmarket is. But you are comparing present (!) obscene low Gold undervaluation(s) with
maniacal high overvaluations of paper(stocks). Do you feel something doesn't add up here ? Yes you do ! (P/E GE=40-pro forma ?)

Japaneze buying ? Haven't seen POG rises in the far east !
And aren't the Indians countering this uptake with less buying ? TG, rightly suggested that individual Gold buying can't move, substantially, the valuation of 140.000 tonnes of the above refined ! It takes forces of a complete different nature to obtain the inevitable (planned) re-valuation !!!
The dominance of monetary Gold is far superior on the occasional constraints of commodity Gold (or paper gold).
Recently, POG comes under up-pressure with NY opening. The previous NY knock down effect has stopped (temporary-?). Significant, no ?

The democrats (US) must soon come up with something to bother for the Bush clan. Democrats need things to turn bad, wich went good during their 8 years of ruling. The stockmarket and the dollar !? And the Clintonistas accumulated a lot of gold-knowhow.
Or is it the war budged + employment that unbalances the POG management ? (Sharon pressure-? And Euro parliament voting support for YA)(This WE European meeting with inroom opinion on US war)

sector

(02/07/2002; 16:11:10 MDT - Msg ID: 69559)

@Black Blade...Crudele's JPMC...Not IF their Derivatives "Blow UP"...

...but when.

See, interest rate derivatives are linked to gold.

Actually a brilliant Professor reported this fact in 1988...a Harvard Professor who has come all the way home to be Chancellor of that great institution. This learned wise man found that there is an historic link between real interest rates and gold. Gold goes up...real rates interest go down...an inverse relationship. Inflation is the same as negative real rates. So gold should go up with inflation according to this theory. We have inflation now in equity assets...loads of inflation and, if you look, negative real interest rates.

The economists loved the discovery. So as gold goes up through $300 on the way to...pick a number with 4 digits...interest rates will skyrocket. This is not conjecture the Harvard Professor said so.

Gold has been held back...prerssurizing a rocket booster...it should have risen years ago...according to the Harvard Chancellor's theory.

JPMCs low volatility IRDs will detonate as gold rises...it's a sure thing. The Fed's biggest bank will emulate Argentina.

The Professors name? Lawrence Summers.

Black Blade

(02/07/2002; 16:21:08 MDT - Msg ID: 69560)

Tyco's TyCom Unit Cutting 1,000 Jobs

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020207/business_manufacturing_tyco_dc_4.html
Snippit:

BOSTON (Reuters) - Tyco International Ltd. (NYSE:TYC) on Thursday said about 1,000 jobs would be eliminated at its undersea fiber-optic cable business, TyCom Ltd., amid continued weakness in the telecommunications industry.

Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" grows in spite of the BLS "seasonally adjusted" data. There are millions of US workers outta work and many are simply giving up in face of a deteriorating US economy. As the benefits run out they either become under-employed, live off credit cards and a prayer, or work "off the books". Get prepared - get outta debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, have cash on hand for several months expenses, and get food and basic necessities stored away.

Black Blade

(02/07/2002; 16:23:51 MDT - Msg ID: 69561)

Sector

I believe that the big "Blow Up" day could be fast approaching. What makes the JPMC fellas think that they are any smarter than the fellas at Enron? Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(02/07/2002; 16:36:19 MDT - Msg ID: 69562)

Treasury secretary O'Neill seems near tears in confrontation with senator at hearing

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020207/ap_to_po/o_neill_byrd_1

Snippit:

During a Senate Budget Committee hearing, an angry Sen. Robert Byrd, D-W.Va., a member of Congress since 1953, engaged O'Neill in a remarkably emotional exchange for nearly 15 minutes. Afterward, O'Neill said he had responded to Byrd with "fire."

At several points, Byrd waved President Bush's new budget, which used a picture of Gulliver tied down by Lilliputians to criticize congressional constraints on decision-making by federal agencies. "I just want to remind you, Mr. Secretary, that a lot of us were here before you came," Byrd, 84, told O'Neill, whose eyes seemed teary at points. "And with all due respect to you, you're not Alexander Hamilton," the nation's first Treasury secretary and a founding father.

O'Neill, 66, pausing to gather himself, answered from the witness table in a voice quavering with emotion. "I've dedicated my life to doing what I can to get rid of rules that limit human potential. And I'm not going to stop," O'Neill said. Prior to joining the Bush administration, O'Neill had been chairman of Alcoa Inc., where he won praise for management innovations that enhanced the aluminum producer's profits.

The only specific rules that O'Neill pointedly cited on Thursday as unjust were "rules that said, 'Coloreds cannot enter here.'" Though O'Neill did not mention it, when Byrd was younger he was a member of the Ku Klux Klan, which he has since renounced.

Black Blade: I suppose that next we can see O'Neill and Byrd in a "Cage Match" on pay-per-view". This testimony was pretty funny though.

BTW, a replay is on CNBC in a few minutes.

slingshot

(02/07/2002; 16:37:20 MDT - Msg ID: 69563)

There're still buying.

Ski, How ya doing?Just had to poke my nose over at the coin dealer with all excitement for breaking $300.00 Gold.
The first dealer opens 1/2 hour before the other and I wanted to get there when he first opened. He opens the door and greets me with, We are out of 1 oz. gold eagles.
Looking at the Gold display there was only a few gold pieces , mostly 1/10 and 1/4 coins. Moving over to the silver case there was no 1 0z,10 oz. and the two 100oz. bars all gone.
The usual high price silver eagles and the fancy silver coins still in place. Although he had increased his stock in these.

Moving on to the second dealer I was happy to see him open an order he just recieved and managed to purchase what I wanted. When I went to pay the phone rings at the counter and this person wants to sell his Gold Eagles. Yep gold at $300.00 and this person is selling. How many others doing the same?

One of these times I will have to go to a dealer on the other side of town and the traffic is killer;)

Slingshot

Black Blade

(02/07/2002; 16:45:50 MDT - Msg ID: 69564)

Pentair to Cut 500 More Jobs

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/020207/pentair_job_cuts_1.html
Snippit:

Pentair Takes $41 Million Restructuring Charge, Will Cut Some 500 More Jobs

Black Blade: More "Bones".

Cavan Man

(02/07/2002; 17:54:54 MDT - Msg ID: 69565)

POG

UP in $3-$5 range. Market seems resiliant but will it run away?

Canuck

(02/07/2002; 18:01:57 MDT - Msg ID: 69566)

Important Enron Question

Hope that Pizz has an opinion.

I just heard on the financial news that so far 5 people have appeared for Enron hearings. The first 4 pleaded the 5th and today Fastow testified that he knew nothing.

Question:

What is the possibility that this 'Enron' thing will die off and very slowly be 'swept' under the carpet?

Canuck.

Canuck

(02/07/2002; 18:03:32 MDT - Msg ID: 69567)

Missed a question

Is the 5 person testimony as stated so far correct?

timbervision

(02/07/2002; 18:31:11 MDT - Msg ID: 69568)

Topaz and Belgian

Thank you Topaz for your reply to my question this morning. I appreciate your thoughts and the time taken. As well thank you Belgian for your posts today which also clearly went to the heart of my question.
Any diversified portfolio today must begin with gold bullion.
Timbervision

nickel62

(02/07/2002; 18:38:04 MDT - Msg ID: 69569)

Gold trading at $303.50 in Sydney!

As gold approaches the $304 price I hope that our long journey through darkness might finally be ending. My God it has been a long, long manipulation by these b###a#ds!

Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD

(02/07/2002; 18:57:55 MDT - Msg ID: 69570)

Your introduction to gold -- At bookstores, or order directly for the "insider" discount!

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"Gold will play a critically important role in American investment portfolios in the years to come. This book provides investors a basic education on private gold ownership from one of the nation's top experts." --Rep. Ron Paul, Texas, U.S. House of Representatives

Please Remember: It is your purchase from Centennial Precious Metals / USAGOLD that nourishes these pages.

uponroof

(02/07/2002; 19:09:41 MDT - Msg ID: 69571)

Belgian

Hello my friend,

You bring up a good point in that paper markets have been grossly over valued or 'inflated' whereas gold has suffered consequentially in equally 'deflationary' measures. All by design, all intentional.

THEN.....

A crisis of confidence comes upon us...

Bert Parks smiling, his hand flowing in front, begins singing that traditional favorite (music please) ....."THERE SHE GOES......MISS LOSS OF CONFIDENCE" as the beautiful young thing stumbles off the catwalk in a heap.

Things are swiftly changing. It's nothing less than an ugly downward spiral. Money that's inflated these entities is now evaporating into thin air. As it dissapears the leverage for inflating gold stocks goes with it. Notice I said stocks not physical.

But lets talk stocks for now...

The deciding moment for these 'at risk' dollars will be in how quickly their owners decide to exchange them for real wealth (gold vehicles). Once these at risk dollars find safe haven in the gold sector their life span improves. Notice I said improves (eternal life belongs to physical only).

I am convinced there is enough 'seed money' at work now to alert the herd of the gold stock oasis in the dessert. The media attention it is garnering today is more than enough to start a 'Save the Dollars' campaign rivaling Greenpeace. Can't you see a pamphlet with the image of a bloodied baby dollar on it? Hee hee hee.

Yes there is a downdraft...perhaps even a strong suction which stands to pull ALL (including gold) stocks down as this money is vaporized. But the current upward action in the sector is encouraging given it's in the face of broad market losses 5 days running.

Tommorrow, if gold continues perking, gold stocks should move again. Let's hope.

One more crisis alert (warning), or worse yet, report (no warning), and I believe we will have too many dollars trying to hide in the teeny tiny gold stock haven...which is a good thing.

Who says inflation can't pay off.

Cheers.

Canuck

(02/07/2002; 19:10:59 MDT - Msg ID: 69572)

@ Stranger

NEM and FN have been in an exact lockstep these last couple weeks. Kinda nice to see.

Both stocks a couple nickels lower today, anything to be concerned about?

Canuck.

Canuck

(02/07/2002; 19:12:16 MDT - Msg ID: 69573)

Anybody?

Last week I saw YEN/Dollar at 132, anybody have the number today?

Black Blade

(02/07/2002; 19:20:44 MDT - Msg ID: 69574)

Canuck - Currency Converter

http://www.xe.com/ucc/Hi Guy,

Try out this currency converter at the link. You can also use it for Gold and Silver. Currently $1.00 = Y133.961. Cheers!

- Black Blade

uponroof

(02/07/2002; 19:28:18 MDT - Msg ID: 69575)

Unwinding hydralic equipment

Looks like it might take some hydralic equipment to penetrate the 305-307 resistence....Hey fellas, send up Booby Goldsell and his 50% hedged forward hydralic piston. After the cieling is breached we might need some hydralic equipment to remove the smiles from our faces. Some analysts saying 340+ next stop. Cheers.

Canuck

(02/07/2002; 19:31:01 MDT - Msg ID: 69576)

One of Greenspan's famous paragraphs:

"The vast majority of privately negotiated OTC contracts are settled in cash rather than through delivery. Cash settlement typically is based on a rate or price in a highly liquid market with a very large or virtually unlimited deliverable supply, for example, LIBOR or the spot dollar-yen exchange rate. To be sure, there are a limited number of OTC derivative contracts that apply to nonfinancial underlying assets. There is a significant business in oil-based derivatives, for example. But unlike farm crops, especially near the end of a crop season, private counterparties in oil contracts have virtually no ability to restrict the worldwide supply of this commodity. (Even OPEC has been less than successful over the years.) Nor can private counterparties restrict supplies of gold, another commodity whose derivatives are often traded over-the-counter, where central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise."

Is he saying that OTC derivatives cannot influence supply of gold, thus price and is he correct?

Canuck

(02/07/2002; 19:36:51 MDT - Msg ID: 69577)

@ BB

Thanks buddy.

Have you seen a 'convertor' that one can graph conversion over a specfic time. I once had one but it showed a table, not very visual.

Canuck

Canuck

(02/07/2002; 19:41:10 MDT - Msg ID: 69578)

Here's the currency convertor (selectable history) but table form

http://www.oanda.com/convert/fxhistory

Black Blade

(02/07/2002; 19:42:55 MDT - Msg ID: 69579)

Canuck - Graphs?

Sorry, I can't help you there. Maybe you can cut and paste historical data into a spreadsheet and try it that way.

- Black Blade

TownCrier

(02/07/2002; 19:58:30 MDT - Msg ID: 69580)

Fed using larger buckets these days to add funds -- $12.5 billion

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020207/nat000104_1.htmlWhile the money markets this morning were trading overnight funds on par with the FOMC target, it is instructive that the Federal Reserve nevertheless felt compelled to add $12.5 billion in temporary funds to the reserves of the banking system ($6.5 billion overnight, $6 billion 28-day RPs).

A person doesn't have to look too far back to recall the days when $2 billion operations of 28-day duration arrived on the scene as a monetary policy tool, and quickly became a regular part of the landscape. More recently they gave way to 28-day repos typically of $3-4 billion in size; and from evidence of the past two weeks these longer-term repos have seemingly given way to money-making operations of even larger size -- $5 to $6 billion.

If you think for a moment that our financial system is the same as it ever was, you had better think again. Things, they are a changin', and this is but one small item as example. Big picture consequences? As we've said before, gold is in for a helluva ride.

R.

anotheraussie

(02/07/2002; 19:58:47 MDT - Msg ID: 69581)

Hedged Miners

A question for all.

I do not understand why hedged miners will crash as gold goes higher. If the miner can deliver his mined gold into the forward sale he still makes profit albeit not as much if spot has gone past this forward sale amount. I am assuming the miners you are talking about can not do this or I am not understanding hedging correctly.

I have looked for explanations but no person really gets to the machanics of how this works. The discuusion assumes understanding which I do not have.

Thank you for any information or leads to information you can provide

Cavan Man

(02/07/2002; 20:03:20 MDT - Msg ID: 69582)

Hey, Canuck.......

The "...to the best of my knowledge (everything was okey dokey)" defense was taken by the former CEO a Mr. Skilling today. The other alleged "economic terrorists" (an unidentified Congressman's quote) took the fifth. Tonight they are thanking Thomas Jefferson and his "Founding Brothers" for their foresight and concern for liberty and freedom. Of course, they are brushing up on the Bill of Rights and other fundamental sources of inspiration to legal defense while they await the next move on the chess board.

We've all been too clever; much too clever. I will take my share of blame but I feel the larger portions should be allotted to the best and the brightest who have "clevered themselves into a corner" in the words of a friend of mine. I repost a quote from this morning's Daily reckoning written by Bill Bonner a man who apparently has made a fortune these last twenty years going with the flow of the financial universe. Today, he is ringing the alarm bell in eloquent, non-threatening prose.

Snippet:

Frank Partnoy, law professor and former Wall Street
derivatives specialist, recently testified before
Congress:

"Enron has been compared to Long-term Capital
Management...the hedge fund that lost $4.6 billion on
more than $1 trillion of derivatives and was rescued in
September 1998 in a private bailout engineered by the
New York Federal Reserve. For the past several weeks, I
have conducted my own investigation into Enron, and I
believe the comparison is very inapt. Yes, there are
similarities in both firms' use and abuse of financial
derivatives. But the scope of Enron's problems and their
effects on its investors and employees are far more
sweeping.

"According to Enron's most recent annual report, the
firm made more money trading derivatives in the year
2000 alone than Long-Term Capital Management made in its
entire history. Long-Term Capital Management generated
losses of a few billion dollars; by contrast, Enron not
only wiped out $70 billion of shareholder value, but
also defaulted on tens of billions of dollars of debts.
Long-Term Capital Management employed only 200 people
worldwide, many of whom simply started a new hedge fund
after the bailout, while Enron employed 20,000 people,
more than 4,000 of whom lost their life savings as
Enron's stock plummeted last fall.

"In short, Enron makes Long-Term Capital Management look
like a lemonade stand."

How many Enrons are out there? Maybe many.

CM: Will Enron be slipped under the rug? Well, if the above perspective on the situation is 50% correct--if the facts are FACTS-- I doubt it. How could it be? In fact, I would wager you a Moosehead that right now there is a meeting somewhere and it is a "crisis" type of session/meeting. Well, perhaps they've adjourned for dinner.

Look, three years ago I bought my first gold coins from CPM here becausse I was looking at the commodity case and supply/demand fundamentals. Later I got hooked on the "inflation" theory. Now, and for some time, I have been thinking long and hard on the geo-political and global monetary issues and potential contingency plans of the players involved. Do you play chess? What I am trying to say is I only wanted to buy low and sell high. Now, I have an increasing sense of dread.

There is a lot of "book cooking" going on right here in NA. Got it? I think NA is in deep #$%@ but NOT long term. if I were you, I would bias to metal. Good luck pal..CM

PS: There is a really good article at Forbes.com dated 2-4 I think on the situation in Japan. You should read it.

Pizz

(02/07/2002; 20:06:04 MDT - Msg ID: 69583)

Canuck - #Enron?

The media will back off just as soon as someone tells them that gross mismanagement is not a felony. The politicians will try to keep it alive until November.

The damage that has been done will show in Enron related writeoff's and tightening accounting standards. The ensuing loss of faith in our capitalistic system is where the real damage has been done.

Subject Change! Junior Gold Stocks. I'm in uponroof's 40-40-20 camp and I think there is going to be one whole heck of a lot of fiat made over the next couple years. When the hot money hits that small float --- they won't be able to split the stocks fast enough. Internet stocks used to trade 100 times AIR, what do you think people will pay for a few billion bucks in the ground when they're trying to get even????Going to be just halarious watching the Kitcoites try to trade them. I'll bet 90% of them sell out about 18 months too early.

I'm not too worried about mine paper buring. The futures paper will go long before. Even FOA said somewhere there would be some fiat made in unhedged mines. The only problem will be that it will be darn hard to find physical to buy with your profits. I'm still buying both.

Pizz

Cavan Man

(02/07/2002; 20:08:52 MDT - Msg ID: 69584)

PS Canuck.......

About a year after the LTCM bailout it was reported in the Wall Street Journal on page one that, and I paraphrase, "..the global economy would have locked up without the FED engineered bailout". The article went on to explain the whole sordid and rather frightening affair. So, I ask you, what is the topic every du jour at the FED and Treasury? Better question:

Why and whither the Euro?

Cavan Man

(02/07/2002; 20:11:34 MDT - Msg ID: 69585)

Pizz

Are you discounting the quantification of extent. You are closer to this type of action than I am. What say ye?

Please convince me I am overly concerned. I would really like to be convinced.

Canuck

(02/07/2002; 20:25:19 MDT - Msg ID: 69586)

CM, Pizz

I agree with you guys; I'm firmly in the camp that this thing is WAY TOO BIG to be swept under the carpet. I'm fishing around to remove that last 'shadow of doubt'.

Great to see gold crack and close over the $298. I was beginning to freak out, bust 298, London goes on a solo tear to 307 and then NY whacks and closes at 297, down a buck.

I was sweating bullets (gold bullets mind you!)

I hope gold pieces 302 tomorrow, a close of 303+ would make my (our) week.

Off to golden-land.........zzzzzzzzzz

A demain.

Canuck.

P.S.: Had a good laugh at the wife tonight, I sat alone in the living room with the better half within earshot. It was 6:00 and I advised her Aussie was about to open (as I often do). At 6:00 on the nose I yelled "gold up 90 bucks". She let a war-hoop out of her that startled the kids. I smirked in the living room "She's hooked".

A Canadian

(02/07/2002; 20:33:22 MDT - Msg ID: 69587)

@ anotheraussie

Shareholders will reject a nonperformer during boom times, but more importantly, some of these greedy *astards will actually forward sell in excess of future production thinking they can easily buy depressed spot to cover. If spot is very angry he will bankrupt them.

goldquest

(02/07/2002; 21:17:35 MDT - Msg ID: 69588)

Gold is Money!

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/020207/to137_1.htmlA gold co. that pays a dividend?

Pizz

(02/07/2002; 21:19:06 MDT - Msg ID: 69589)

Cavan Man

They have to prove it and no one is talking except to point fingers at someone else.

I was hired by a small company shortly after they went public in the late 80's. The public accountants gave them a clean opinion, but the field auditors were nervous. They managed to convince the partner in charge (who was being wined, womened, and dined) to hire a corporate controller (me) to help the CFO staighten things out. They had used the public money to expand 60+ locations in 15 states in less than a year - along with a computer conversion.

To make a long story short, the CEO had the books pumped thru "mismanaged" inventory to the tune of more money than they had made (on paper) in the last five years. The goal was to pump and dump the stock. The CFO had been the controller of another company and had watched his CFO make a few million doing it. It took me three months to figure out how they were doing it, but the books and records were so screwed up and so many people were involved and being paid off thru expense accounts, bloated salaries and bonuses, that the end result was a big mess. THEY PLAN THE BIG MESS SO IF IT DOESN'T WORK, NO ONE GOES TO JAIL.

A week before the auditors came in to do "due dilligence" on a secondary bond offering (they were out of money), I was offered a block of options. I refused and they fired me. I mailed my workpapers to the accountants. Two years later the SEC "invited" me to their offices, since the company had gone under. I told them my interpretation of what they had done, and they told me "Gross Mismanagement is not a felony." The CFO was barred from ever being an officer in a public corporation, The auditing firm fired the partner in charge, and the CEO and General Manager both moved out of state and started another small business (privately held).

I have no faith in the legal system to prosecute this type of "theft".

Pizz

Solomon Weaver

(02/07/2002; 21:36:45 MDT - Msg ID: 69590)

Reuters now writing . . .

Limp economy, rate cuts and fear trigger gold rush
February 07, 2002 03:56:00 AM ET

By James Regan

SYDNEY, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Economic slowing, a barrage of interest rate cuts and people just plain scared about the future have helped put a polish on gold bullion not seen in years.

Gold shone again on Thursday, skipping back above US$300 an ounce as investors everywhere displayed a passion for bullion. The average price for the last quarter was $278 an ounce.

No one knows how long it will last, but bullion prices haven't been as high since Europe's most powerful central banks agreed to rein in sales more than two years ago.

Analysts point to rekindled recognition of gold's better-than-money-in-the-bank reputation in times of uncertainty for the rush.

Tarnished as an investment, first by currencies and later by dot-coms, gold is suddenly good again.

"In the wake of the September 11 attacks in the United States, gold is seen as a better buy," Commonwealth Bank of Australia commodities strategist David Thurtell said.

Gold see-sawed on either side of $300 an ounce in a hectic day of trading in Asia, settling around $299 an ounce in Hong Kong before opening in London at its highest in two years.

"Everybody is in the market," Desmond Wong, senior trader at Standard London (Asia) in Hong Kong, said.

Demand for gold in Japan has been so strong that trading in gold futures on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange was halted for a while on Wednesday when a rush of orders overloaded the market's computer system. Volume hit a record high on Thursday.

ANYONE FOR GOLF?

A mistrust of banks in Japan is fuelling the rush.

In the mining regions of outback Australia, where one town hopes gold fever will bring in enough extra revenue to build a new golf course, prospectors are dusting off drill rigs and getting ready to hire more staff.

"This town has weathered a prolonged downturn and there is no reason now why it should not be home to a world class golf course," said Tony Robson, the mayor of Kalgoorlie, a parched mining town 500 kms east of the Indian Ocean.

Australia's unofficial index of exploration companies has jumped 13.5 percent in the last month, as the prospects of cornering more funds for exploring increases.

"This is a very exciting time," said Ian Walker, managing director of Metex Resources NL , which is gearing up for more exploration after announcing A$3 million (US$1.5 million) in new capital raisings.

Australia's gold mining sector, the third largest after South Africa and the U.S., is notorious for selling millions of ounces of gold into commodity markets at the first hint that prices are on the way up, effectively cutting off any rally at the legs.

HEDGING DOWN, GOLD UP

But with fewer fixed price hedge sales on their books than in the past and forecasts for hoarding to widen a supply deficit, there is less pressure to cash in quickly, analysts said.

Critics of hedging say the practice stifles upward movement in gold by erecting artificial price caps.

"We are seeing a lot less hedging among Australian miners, which is helping sustain the price," Glen Coglan, of Macquarie Financial Services in Kalgoorlie said.

U.S.-based Newmont Mining Corp (NEM) has vowed to dismantle some eight million ounces of hedges held by Normandy Mining Ltd after it completes a takeover of the Australian mining house later this month.

"That will really send a signal to the market that will flow into gold," Mike Ivey, managing director of Croesus Mining NL , said.

South Africa's AngloGold Ltd sees its hedges falling some six million ounces this year.

Even so, there are no guarantees gold will not recoil as quickly as it rose, Eagle Mining Analyst Keith Goode said.

In October 1999, the price jumped to around $338 but the rally ended within weeks. REUTERS

� 2002 Reuters

Pizz

(02/07/2002; 21:44:05 MDT - Msg ID: 69591)

Some non-gold advice

I'm taking a much needed vacation in about 8 days. Takin' the wife to Maui for our 25th. Can anyone who's been there recommend a good restaurant? Small, atmosphere, lobster for her and prime rib and good vino for me.

(I'm planning to pay with a maple - we'll see if gold is money or not!)

Pizz

auenboy

(02/07/2002; 21:55:04 MDT - Msg ID: 69592)

dinner in maui

I think that David Paul's will fit the bill for a wonderful 25th. But in 8 days you may only need a half a maple Good luck Have Fun I envy you

Pizz

(02/07/2002; 22:00:42 MDT - Msg ID: 69593)

auenboy

Thanks. (the other half ounce is for the GOOD vino, and the way these markets are moving, I may get one to go!!)

thanks again

Pizz

John Doe

(02/07/2002; 22:16:21 MDT - Msg ID: 69594)

Canuck

"Nor can private counterparties restrict supplies of gold, another commodity whose derivatives are often traded over-the-counter, where central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise." - FED Chairman, Alan Greenspan

Canuck: Is he saying that OTC derivatives cannot influence supply of gold, thus price and is he correct?

JD: Yes, I think that is essentially what he is saying. But, as with all things Greenspan, one must discern what he is NOT saying:

1) He is not saying all "private counterparties", i.e., those on the other side of the derivative contract, deal only in paper. For example, sometimes ABX acts as a miner, and at other times, like when it engages in forward sales, it is first the "private counterparty" and then, (potentially) sometime in the future, it will be the miner that will supply the gold specified in the forward contract.

2) He apparently does not consider the central banks "private counterparties", as they are the entities that will "correct" the nefarious, potential, supply-restricting, monopoly activities of the "private counterparties" (evidence of which, by the way, I've scant evidence, if any). Yet, do not the central banks, acting as swing producer, place this gold into "private counterparty" hands via their forward sales?

3) He does not say that the central banks will "withdraw existing leases (or unencumbered bullion, for that matter) in increasing quantities should the price FALL." So, one can read this to mean that restricting supply above the natural, free market economic baseline is "bad" (if it occurs at all), but creating mechanisms to flood the market is "good", or at least "not bad", even if it nearly collapses the mining industry, and regardless, apparently, of any long-run economic consequences such CB manipulation might give rise to.

But regardless, please note that "increasing quantities" is not the same as "infinite quantities".

John Doe

(02/07/2002; 22:27:22 MDT - Msg ID: 69595)

anotheraussie - hedger risks

I can think of three reasons a hedger might crash or at least underperform:

1) If the hedger sells forward to such a degree that their production timetable does not adequately meet their forward sales delivery dates and no additional CB gold is forthcoming. If the forwards must be rolled over at prohibitively higher gold prices (if they can be rolled at all), the miner will face severe losses, thus impacting the stock price.

2) If too much production is rolled forward even with adequate production to meet deliveries, any rapid price rise in gold will leave the miner with relatively stagnant performance. This may not crash the stock, per se, but those holding the stock with the expectation of price appreciation will dump it because it will severely underperform its peers.

3) Some miners, especially of the "highly sophisticated hedgers" ilk, may have become more hedge fund than miner. The current Enron investigation makes one speculate what financial wonders are carried on and off the balance sheet of this class of miner and how that might impact financial results going forward.

anotheraussie

(02/07/2002; 22:37:37 MDT - Msg ID: 69596)

Hedger Risks

A Canadian and John Doe

Thanks for your help.

Mr Gresham

(02/07/2002; 23:24:42 MDT - Msg ID: 69597)

Breaching 306?

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDOGreat posts today, all. Too much of our experience together these past years is coming to the fore to respond adequately.

It is just so interesting that we few ("band of brothers") have an idea of what can happen, while the majority are still rubbing their eyes. Whether gold launches this time or soon to come, to have a bunch of "average citizens" so keyed in to a complex and hidden story is an historic phenom in itself!

Most people are used to markets meeting resistance from reduced demand as prices go higher, the natural self-limiting against asymptotic curves going upward into the heavens. At first glance, they must assume that this market will also operate that way.

Only the few (hundred? thousand? ten thousand?) who study here and at neighboring keeps have a glimmer of the possible "failure of paper markets" that can be the first or second stage of the POG-rocket. (Many traders know about short squeezes, but the trading community also "knows" that .gov is out to squash POG for as long as it can.)

It is amazing how positive some of the press has turned so suddenly; are they now so objective, with a sudden case of humility over their years of abuse? Or is someone greasing the skids for a positive POG story? Who cares; enjoy the ride!

Horatio

(02/07/2002; 23:43:02 MDT - Msg ID: 69598)

Barrick and Von Fink

Did you ever wonder what was said to Baron Von Fink Homestakes largest shareholder located in Germany.?
What was it that convinced him to vote in favor of Barricks merger with Homestake? It would be one of the most enlightening comments in gold history.Does anyone know?

Usul

(02/08/2002; 01:06:22 MDT - Msg ID: 69599)

"strange accounting practices"

http://biz.yahoo.com/ts/020206/valley_020106.htmlIt used to be that the accounting prestidigitators, if generally accepted accounting principle numbers weren't good enough, could use "pro-forma" numbers.

Now that "pro-forma" numbers are running out of steam, the accounting prestidigitators must turn to "pro forma pro rata" numbers, which are more aggressive than ordinary pro forma numbers...

Black Blade

(02/08/2002; 01:29:42 MDT - Msg ID: 69600)

Gold Chart

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.htmlThis Gold chart is quite nice. It demonstrates how Gold pushed against the $300.00/oz barrier only to be pushed back. Now it has broken through and sit solidly above the $300.00/oz. level. Now if it can remain above this level through the weekend, we could have a solid base to build off of. So far so good.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(02/08/2002; 01:40:43 MDT - Msg ID: 69601)

Gold Higher Still!

http://www.kitco.com/market/Gold is moving a bit higher tonight after European markets opened. Currently Gold sits at $307.50. Nice!

Black Blade

(02/08/2002; 02:12:16 MDT - Msg ID: 69602)

European Markets Sink

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?ueuropean markets are currently all in the red. The fears of Enronitis still carries over after congessional testimony yesterday. Also, corporate earnings have been rather "grim". The Global Economy looks set to sink into a deepening Depression. There is little positive news anywhere. Still Japanese citizens and funds continue to purchase increasing quantities of Gold as insolvent Japanese Banks refuse to insure savings over $75,000 and as the Yen devalues faster than it can be printed.

- Black Blade

Old Yeller

(02/08/2002; 02:26:06 MDT - Msg ID: 69603)

Bank gets burned for $750 million in derivative losses

http://www.sunspot.net/news/nationworld/bal-te.bz.consumer07feb07.story?coll=bal%2Dnews%2Dnation
Dominos falling quicker now. Appears to be some nervousness in this article.

Pretty easy to vaporize $750 million,isn't it?

Black Blade

(02/08/2002; 02:42:44 MDT - Msg ID: 69604)

London gold opens above $300, Japanese keep buying

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020208/l08121737_1.html
Snippit:

LONDON, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Gold took a tight hold on its recent gains, opening above $300 an ounce in Europe on Friday for the first time in two years, and the metal was expected to continue upwards, traders said.

Spot gold posted its fifth consecutive opening high in London, starting at $305.50/307.00 a troy ounce at 0700 GMT, following a strong rally in Asia overnight.

Safe-haven buying from Japanese investors, coupled with a flight to gold by disappointed stock holders and reduced supply from producers have contributed to the rally that has raised the gold price by nearly 7.0 percent in a week. One European trader said: ``We've seen the Japanese continuing to buy a bit every day and the market is just very sensitive to the upside at the moment.''

The Tokyo Commodities Exchange (TOCOM) has recorded record high trading volumes in gold this week, while the yen-based gold price has leapt to three-year highs. The weakness in the Japanese yen against the dollar, and concern about the safety of the country's banks have triggered a gold rush in Japan from investors seeking a safe asset in which to place their money.

The recent move to two-year highs above $300 an ounce has kept trade extremely volatile, as any dips have been rapidly bought up by market players keen to cover their short positions, which has then been offset by producer selling. Gold managed to sustain the move above $300 overnight and although Fridays often bring end-of-week profit-taking, traders said sentiment had improved and a sell-off was unlikely.

"The market is bullish and is expecting further gains in the coming days,'' one said. ``Gold can easily move $10 in a day right now, so it could trade back to $295 or go up to $315, it's very hard to call,'' he added.

Black Blade: So far so good. Gold sits at $307.50 and has bounced around $309.00.

Black Blade

(02/08/2002; 02:59:42 MDT - Msg ID: 69605)

Japanese drive gold higher

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/dynamic/news/top_story.html?in_review_id=497439∈_review_text_id=458511
Snippit:

THE GOLD price surged to fresh two-year highs in Asian markets today as nervous investors continued to dump risky stocks in favour of the safe-haven yellow metal. Spot gold shot to $306, up more than $6 from New York's closing price. It has risen steadily since 11 September and gained more than 10% in the past week.

A combination of asset reallocation, the 'Enron factor', safe-haven buying and supply restraint by producers has boosted the metal. Japanese savers are snapping up gold ahead of rule changes on 1 April, when the government will no longer guarantee larger deposits in the event of a bank collapse.

Black Blade: Japanese banks are effectively insolvent. It is no wonder that Japanese are snapping up Gold.

Siochain

(02/08/2002; 03:03:28 MDT - Msg ID: 69606)

And the Beat goes on -Goldman expensive ill advice

http://www.businessreport.co.za/html/busrep/br_frame_decider.php?click_id=335&art_id=ct20020207182521700I53243682&set_id=60Wonder how many lawsuits this may generate..//quite a story!!!! PM holdings looking safer and better every day!!!!

Cost of Goldman's misjudgment
From Bloomberg
February 08 2002 at 10:01AM
New York - Goldman Sachs Group's multimillion-dollar advice to Tyco International and Hewlett-Packard has left shareholders of both companies poorer.

Tyco's stock has fallen by 44 percent, wiping out $41 billion in shareholder value, since the company said last month that it would break itself into four publicly traded businesses.

Goldman was Tyco's sole adviser on the plan, which Tyco chief executive Dennis Kozlowski wanted in part to halt a 22 percent slide in the share price.

Hewlett-Packard chief executive Carly Fiorina consulted Henry Paulson, the chief executive of Goldman, and banker Eugene Sykes before agreeing last September to buy Compaq Computer for $23.8 billion.

Hewlett-Packard has shed 10 percent since the announcement, cutting the company's market value by $4.6 billion.

Goldman, the leading adviser on mergers and the top arranger of stock sales last year, may share $500 million with other Wall Street firms helping Tyco break itself apart.

Goldman would also earn more than $30 million advising Hewlett-Packard, analysts said.

"I really doubt that Goldman raised many red flags that would get in the way of all those fees," said Michael Nemeroff, the head of finance and transactions at Chicago-based law firm Vedder Price Kaufman & Kammholz.

Jack Levy, the chairman of mergers and acquisitions at Goldman, declined to comment.

The fees would help Goldman offset a 45 percent slump in US mergers last year, which contributed to a 17 percent drop in fourth-quarter profit.

Goldman worked on $569 billion of announced mergers and acquisitions last year, $133 billion more than its closest competitor Merrill Lynch, according to Bloomberg data.

Hewlett-Packard's agreement to buy Compaq was the fourth- largest acquisition announced last year.

Goldman was only hired in July, more than a year after Fiorina and her Compaq counterpart Michael Capellas started talking, and one month after details of the merger began to be worked out.

One of the main jobs for investment bankers in an acquisition was to judge the likely reaction of investors, said Nemeroff.

Hewlett-Packard shed 38 percent after the announcement as investors expressed scepticism that the company could sell more services to make up for falling sales of personal computers.

"There were a lot of surprises that nobody expected in the initial reaction," Compaq's Capellas said last week. Compaq hired Salomon Smith Barney as its adviser.

Hewlett-Packard declined to comment on Goldman.

Hewlett-Packard has rebounded by 44 percent since its September low. On November 6, the Hewlett family and a related foundation, owners of about 5 percent of Hewlett's shares, said they planned to vote against the merger. The stock soared 17 percent.

Fiorina is embroiled in a proxy fight against Hewlett-Packard director Walter Hewlett, the son of co-founder William Hewlett. Both founding families are against the transaction.

Fiorina needs to persuade more than two-thirds of institutional investors to side with her when shareholders vote on the transaction next month.

Compaq shares are trading at 9.5 percent below the value of Hewlett-Packard's stock offer, about half of what the difference was a month ago. That signals that more investors expect the purchase to be approved.

As with Hewlett-Packard, investors in Tyco immediately showed disapproval of the firm's break-up, cutting its market value by 50 percent.

Tyco shares rose 12 percent yesterday to $25.92 after the company cancelled its plan to sell shares in its finance unit. Tyco also ended its agreement to buy CR Bard for $3.2 billion. Goldman and Merrill Lynch advised Tyco on the Bard purchase.

Goldman bankers Levy, Jeffrey Moslow and James Katzman helped craft the plan that would break Tyco into four companies. When the plan encountered resistance from some shareholders, Tyco hired JP Morgan Chase, Credit Suisse First Boston and Citigroup to help it sell businesses and provide financing, according to bankers familiar with the matter.

Brad McGee, Tyco's chief strategy officer, declined to comment on Goldman. "We've had terrific support from our banks," he said. "That's the bottom line."

Goldman was likely to win most of the business arranging the initial offerings of Tyco's units, analysts said.

Kozlowski advocated the break-up of Tyco to refute speculation that the company used $64 billion of acquisitions in the past eight years to mask slowing sales growth. But some investors who met Kozlowski after the plan was announced said they felt blindsided.

"I have never left a business meeting as angry as I left that one," said Robert Streed, a fund manager at Northern Trust in Chicago.

"They changed their story. They were valued as taking acquisitions, infusing corporate culture into acquired companies, and now they come in and break the corporate culture, exactly where I thought the culture resided," Streed said.

Goldman is not the only firm to misjudge investor reaction recently. JP Morgan and Citigroup were unable to halt a collapse in Enron's shares that scuttled their plan to sell the energy trader to Dynegy. - Bloomberg

Chris Powell

(02/08/2002; 03:13:26 MDT - Msg ID: 69607)

What happens if spot gold reaches $320?

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/997Here's a speculation.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Henri

(02/08/2002; 06:22:16 MDT - Msg ID: 69608)

Pizz #69583 Jr stocks

Last summer I visited a gold mining district in Australia I believe it was Ballerat. Here they had an old steam railway and had set up demos of old mines, mining techniques and erected some of the old crushing mill equipment. Most impressive was an actual pour of a 100 oz bar. Liquid gold is unbelievably beautiful! But I digress.

My point is that the most impressive thing was a roster of the dividends paid out to shareholders. 10's of thousands of Aussie $? per SHARE in the peak production years (1860's). Wish I had the details ...that was alotta cash in those days

Siochain

(02/08/2002; 06:33:44 MDT - Msg ID: 69609)

(No Subject)

Well London certainly did its' job today on POG....hmmmn...SM futures green....wonder what's up in NY for gold - will they or won't they? ....definitely "interesting times"

Spartacus

(02/08/2002; 06:34:03 MDT - Msg ID: 69610)

Citigroup&Enron

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/02/08/business/08NOTE.html?ex=1013835600&en=343783226d016f3a&ei=5006∂ner=ALTAVISTA1
How Citigroup Hedged Bets Against Enron By DANIEL ALTMAN

"To protect itself, Citigroup created securities that functioned like an insurance policy. If Enron stayed healthy, buyers of the securities would receive a steady return. But if Enron ran into trouble, Citigroup would stop paying the return, keep the investors' principal and instead give them Enron debt. Now those investors are left to fight for repayment in bankruptcy proceedings."

Belgian

(02/08/2002; 07:22:36 MDT - Msg ID: 69611)

Watch out !

Hong Kong markets closed from monday to thursday (Chineze Newyear) ! Was the 307$ an anticipation on this holiday trading-halt ? Can POG be re-managed to the 290$-zone, more easely without the far east buying ?

Belgian

(02/08/2002; 07:28:31 MDT - Msg ID: 69612)

DROOY

DRD Directors have been selling DROOY shares !? (Miningweb)
And have they been buying PHYSICAL ? No ! They prefer holding that great rand-currency.

RobotGuy

(02/08/2002; 07:34:36 MDT - Msg ID: 69613)

Time?

K, this is probably just a coincidence, but most of my real time charts for POG stopped functioning today at 9:11 eastern time. How bizarre.

sector

(02/08/2002; 07:37:56 MDT - Msg ID: 69614)

Forbes.com on Gold

Business - Forbes.com

Gold Rush
Fri Feb 8, 8:08 AM ET

Gold's convulsive action this week, spiking above $307, has excited attention because of concurrent concerns about the financial system, exchange rates, accounting standards, etc.

Chris Temple of National Investor has a more technical theory. He writes:

"As I've discussed in recent weeks, Newmont's successful acquisition of Normandy Mining and Franco-Nevada helped stoke some of this bullishness earlier, as the market cheered the non-hedging policy of Newmont as opposed to South Africa's Anglo Gold, its competing bidder. Newmont has already promised to begin unwinding Normandy's hedge book in an orderly fashion.

"For those still a bit confused by this, Anglo, Normandy and Barrick Gold have been among the biggest gold hedgers in the industry in recent years. Their practices, boiled down, have been to sell future gold production at current prices. While this served to 'lock in' a decent price in a declining market for gold in the late 1990s, gold bugs have hated the practice, as it served to do little more than strengthen the bearish grip on gold...Anglo has now said that it, too, will begin unwinding its hedge positions. This bet on a rising gold price by the big South African miner is a key reason why even more bullishness has crept into the gold arena."

The Hulbert Financial Digest has only one year's worth of data for National Investor. But in 2001 it did well, gaining 18.4% vs. -11.0% for the Wilshire.

Bullish sentiment is strikingly high among gold timers--89.6% exposure vs. 85.7% for the gold timers that have beaten the market since 1992 by HFD count. In other words, there's no Best vs. Rest divergence to turn to--and bullish excess like this invites contrarian skepticis, as it did (justifiably) when gold spiked up to $325.50 in October 1999.

But almost all the gold timers are trend followers. By definition, they will be on board any rally.
++++++++++++++++++++++
The Japanese are powering this move and will act independently without regard to other influences.

RobotGuy

(02/08/2002; 08:59:34 MDT - Msg ID: 69615)

Markets VS. Gold

North American markets started off well this morning despite the constant rising POG. Little activity in some Junior mining companies suggest investors still believe we are on a road to recovery. If we have another milking phase today, I expect we'll see a lot of last minute gold mining stock buying. I know a number of you are against investing in gold mining stocks, but as others have expressed, quick gains in stocks will allow me to purchase more physical than I could have with my previous portfolio. Buy physical I will, but for the time being, my stocks will probably increase in value faster than the actual POG. I'm not afraid of trying to get my money out of these characters, as my investments are rather insignificant with respect to others.

sourdough

(02/08/2002; 09:03:26 MDT - Msg ID: 69616)

"THE GOLD TOOL"

It appears the "push" by the Japanese government is working.
"Public continues to buy gold".
The rest of the world continues to provide the gold for them to purchase at very reasonable prices.
When(how much gold)will they have to purchase before the point is reached where Gold cannot be allowed to fall?
If the Japanese put enough of their savings into gold, the government/s must realize that they could not take a wipe out on gold falling. Get enough gold in their hands ,then support the price upwards. The economic recovery tool!
Finally they found a mechanic to fix that engine.
America must hold off until the Japanese pockets are full.
I ask again, if the Japanese economy begins to recover through domestic led demand. What would be the best jAPANESE RELATED investment? What is the potential return on that investment %?

Rockgrabber

(02/08/2002; 10:01:50 MDT - Msg ID: 69617)

COMEX Futures: we have to beat them at their game somehow

I am sure many of you have taken a ride in the gold markets. Only to get no profit, and lose your money on these price spikes. I dont see how this is going to be different. I mean 9-11 could not even really do anything for gold.
Here is my strategy, help me if you could with any ideas. When the price hit 300 I bought April 290 puts and 295 puts. I then went long futures at 301 with a stop at 298. I have an order to sell at 310. If it gets there I will convert all profit into puts again, the April 305 puts. Then go long at 311.5. All the time not minding if it goes higher (Good amount of real gold, and unhedged gold companies). What I am really looking for is this market to fall back and cash in the puts, and buy real gold, with any profit. The name off my plan is to get more real gold. Of another note.
Who else out there is positioning themselfes for this market to fall, and how are you going about it? I might be better off just buying puts and calls then cashing out the calls if the market goes up, and then buying puts with that profit. Anyhow I sure do not trust this paper market. Good luck out there good freinds.

Carl H

(02/08/2002; 10:21:32 MDT - Msg ID: 69618)

Japanese Housewives

Does anyone else find it ironic that the Japanese Housewives may well be the ones to topple the cabal?

Gandalf the White

(02/08/2002; 10:34:26 MDT - Msg ID: 69619)

OK Goldfly, time to let SPIKE loose !!

Jump SPOT !! -- JUMP
<;-)

Brett Woods

(02/08/2002; 11:09:54 MDT - Msg ID: 69620)

Perhaps, putt thos "strategies" aside for now.

Nothing so far since November 2000 has indicated that this isn't the beginning of a real bull market. This isn't a matter of a short lived hysteria driven spike like y2k. There are genuine and broad based currency issues, exposing the fixed value of gold as their values move down to meet the level of productivity on which they're based. Further, there have been several articles exposing the increase of money supply, a much greater increase of "liquidity" than that injected to ameliorate the anticipated y2k cash machine runs; much more of a year over year increase than President Nixon introduced at the beginning of our great inflationary period, and the reasoning given is that our current stock holdings have no value and what is implied, is that they have no basis for re-generating their value. "Intangible Assets?" Good lord, can't you see that the Emperor has no clothes?

I refuse to pay $25. per share for a company that earns $0.20 a share on that investment. The return is virtualy nothing and their is risk. I'd rather pay $4. per share for that return and I would rather invest in something I understand. I think that I am not alone with this feeling and hence a renewed and genuine bullish interest in simple work and the salts of the Earth.

jinx44

(02/08/2002; 11:21:31 MDT - Msg ID: 69621)

Bill Bonner at the Motley Fool---excerpt

Twenty-four months ago, people thought something big was happening. And something big was...but not at all what they expected.

"It was, in short, the infinite promise of America's
digital future," writes Christopher Byron, "conjured by
seers like George Gilder and Nicholas Necroponte, that
drove capital spending in the 1990s, reshaping the U.S.
economy from a world of tangible value into one of
virtual opportunity. We wound up building the greatest
field of dreams in the history of world capitalism, and
alas, no one showed up to play."

It must be comic to the gods. To watch us, I mean.

It is not hunger that gets a modern man up in the
morning, dear reader. Nor is it the need to put a roof
over his head that keeps him up late at night. Instead,
most of human striving and pining has no more purpose
than to help him feel superior to other men - to look
better, to play better, to have more money or a better
life. Nothing is so trivial or preposterous that it
cannot give a man an edge. One is proud of his new
automobile, another of his roses...one believes his
steadfast labor raises him above other men of his
rank...another thinks his stock market returns give him
a mark of distinction. Thus, in pursuit of such an
advantage, a man puts calluses on his hands with hard
labor or dulls his dendrites with P/E ratios and World
Economic Forum meetings.

Straining, sweating, climbing...whether he is working on
his golf swing or his stockholdings...modern man
struggles to the top of the hill. There, surveying the
world at his feet, he puffs out his chest, puts his
hands on his hips...and discovers that he has forgotten
to put on his pants.

TownCrier

(02/08/2002; 11:26:15 MDT - Msg ID: 69622)

More change... gold is special

Around the world, changes continue to be put into place, setting gold up in a unique position for special treatment. They WANT you to use it for savings, a complementary role (i.e., savings) to the monetary system that national currencies are unable to adequately deliver (even with interest included). The purpose is to level the international economic playing field, eliminating the U.S's "exorbitant privilege" attained through the dollar's BrettonWoods-legacy reserve status -- both officially and individually.

The latest stirrings:
Following the European/Russian/Indian/Chinese trend, Korea "is awaiting the response from Congress on the proposal to abolish the 10% VAT currently levied on gold imports. An answer is expected by 22 nd of this month." (Quoted material is from WGC's Rhona O'Connell.)

R.

Cavan Man

(02/08/2002; 12:39:06 MDT - Msg ID: 69623)

Pizz

RE:EnronThanks for your reply. My concern is not regarding the incarceration of the wise guys. Last eve I was speaking about the magnitude of losses and default.

Mr Gresham

(02/08/2002; 12:42:35 MDT - Msg ID: 69624)

Trail Guide

This has been your week, or maybe the first of many.

We have kept on hiking, and our stamina is looking pretty good lately.

If we are about to come out upon a ridgetop clearing, with a spectacular view, wouldn't it be great to find you waiting there to point out some of the landmarks in that vista?

Black Blade

(02/08/2002; 12:43:36 MDT - Msg ID: 69625)

Another Accounting Scandal?

There is a fresh rumor that another accounting scandal is about to break. This time the apparent culprit is Qualcom. There will be a press conference in about an hour or so. I suspect after the markets close and a lot of insider dumping. This week so far we have seen the effects of Enronitis, Global Crossing investigations and the Daschle Dip. And now perhaps Qualcom. I now wonder what surprises next week will bring. It is no wonder that there is now a growing shift towards Gold.

- Black Blade

Pizz

(02/08/2002; 13:03:32 MDT - Msg ID: 69626)

Cavan Man

Sorry for the misinterpretation.

Re: Magnitude of losses and default? I think it will be a cascade effect. A great many who did business with Enron were hedging their own (over exposed??) positions, whatever they may be. Now they are "naked".

With the accountants/SEC zeroing in, a major hedge position that previously was offset with a book "gain" from Enron, now will have to be accounted for as a loss. I personally don't think too many of these companies have either the capital or the liquidity. If a couple more major bk's hit, this is going to get real ugly.

The telecom sector appears to be imploding. (See BB post)

Right now I'm getting a real bad feeling something major is about to break.

Black Blade

(02/08/2002; 13:05:57 MDT - Msg ID: 69627)

Fabled 1933 gold coin, never in circulation, expected to sell for millions

http://www.startribune.com/stories/535/1609091.html

Snippit:

NEW YORK -- A 1933 Double Eagle gold coin that never went into circulation is being sold by the federal government at auction this summer, with experts predicting it could fetch millions.

``We expect that this coin may become the most valuable coin in the world,'' said David Pickens, associate director of the U.S. Mint.

Sotheby's auction house and Stack's, a numismatic firm, are planning a July 30 auction of the coin, believed to be one of only a handful of 1933 Double Eagles to have survived when all 445,000 struck that year were ordered melted down.

Double Eagles were first minted in 1850 with a face value of $20. The ones that were minted in 1933 were never put into circulation because President Franklin Roosevelt decided to take the nation off the gold standard.

Before the coins were melted down, two were handed over to the Smithsonian Institution for historic safekeeping.

But one other somehow survived. It suddenly surfaced in public in 1996.

Henrietta Holsman Fore, director of the U.S. Mint, said the coin ``has been at the center of international numismatic intrigue for more than 70 years.''

The Double Eagle, its whereabouts unknown for decades, surfaced when British coin dealer Stephen Fenton tried selling it to undercover Secret Service agents at the Waldorf Astoria in New York. Fenton was charged with possession of stolen property because of the coin's status as uncirculated, but the charges were later dismissed.

Barry Berke, who represented Fenton during forfeiture proceedings, said he negotiated a settlement after presenting evidence that Fenton purchased the coin in 1995 from an Egyptian jeweler with ties to an Egyptian military official.

That strengthened the possibility the coin once belonged to Egypt's King Farouk, one of the world's great coin collectors. A 1933 Double Eagle from the collection of the king was offered for sale at a 1954 Cairo auction, but withdrawn at the behest of the U.S. Treasury, according to Sotheby's and the U.S. Mint.

Black Blade: Ah come on! After all it's just a barbarous relic. ;-)

Black Blade

(02/08/2002; 13:11:42 MDT - Msg ID: 69628)

Enron Scandal Grows

It now has come to light that Enron has paid over $700 milion to "off the books" partners JEDI since filing for bankruptcy (Tea Pot Dome Scandal II?). The creditors are bit ticked off and have gone to court. Enron employees are continuing to loot the company with extravagant purchases and entertainment such as season tickets at Enron Field for luxury boxes, bonuses, and exotic travel. The corruption looks to be pervasive. Meanwhile apparently former CEO Ken Lay will appear before Congress to testify on Tuesday. Strangely many other corporations are under investigation for similar practices. "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade

Pizz

(02/08/2002; 13:16:09 MDT - Msg ID: 69629)

(No Subject)

Dollar sitting at support @119 in uptrend.

Bonds strengthening.

CRB gapped up.

Oil going up.

PM's going up.

Feels like some really big money is getting set up for a major flight to quality and hard assets. Feels like a major war is about to break.

Just a gut feel, but it's real strong.

Pizz

Black Blade

(02/08/2002; 13:20:03 MDT - Msg ID: 69630)

Market Home Stretch

We are now in the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Of course we can expect a concerted push to make the markets close higher. The markets trade on very light volumne and so it is easy to push the indices higher. Perhaps the President's Working Group on Financial Markets (aka PPT) has come back into play, considering that there is absolutely no positive news to trade on.

- Black Blade

Solomon Weaver

(02/08/2002; 13:24:49 MDT - Msg ID: 69631)

(No Subject)

Carl H (02/08/02; 10:21:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 69618)
Japanese Housewives
Does anyone else find it ironic that the Japanese Housewives may well be the ones to topple the cabal?

. . . . . . .

One of the interesting things about Japan is that when a fad sets in, it can quickly move to mainstream......wives are definately the keepers of household finance and savings...and they will quickly spread the word about the value of keeping a little gold hidden under the tokonoma.

CoBra(too)

(02/08/2002; 13:37:29 MDT - Msg ID: 69632)

As a Matter of Fact!

... What an idiotic remark to make. though, as a matter of fact I'm swamped by Wall Street friends wanting to know what's going on... in gold - is it for real?

Another, totally idiotic question - since we bugs know what's for real - gold only.

As another matter of fact - Mr. Wall Street asked last week what to buy in terms of mining co's - my answer was DROOY and X-Cal and both made 100% in that 'idiotic' short time frame. Did he buy gold, or miners - NO! Not yet, though he will after the next big appreciation ...

Go, though go gold to keep your values attached to moral reality - not in vanity to fiat surreality - cb2

Pizz

(02/08/2002; 13:38:20 MDT - Msg ID: 69633)

Black Blade

A little help if you have the time.

How would you set up a 90 day store of food for a major earthquake zone, i.e. no electricity, no natural gas, etc.

Your input would be appreciated

Thx

Pizz

Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD

(02/08/2002; 13:45:08 MDT - Msg ID: 69634)

Hard assets... Easy access! Don't be fooled by inflatable paper substitutes!

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Why should YOU buy gold from Centennial?

Because no one else will do it for you.

Centennial is here to help.
1-800-869-5115

sourdough

(02/08/2002; 14:10:34 MDT - Msg ID: 69635)

Question

Opinion please.
What is the best play in Japan at present, in the event of a Japanese economic recovery?
I would like to do some research to see what cartel banks are doing in Japan. I know of some talk of purchasing "bad loans".
It should be good for Canadian economy, it should be good for American economic outlook, it should be good for world economic outlook. If it appears the Japanese can again begin to start "pulling their weight" it should be good for everybody.
If I am a cartel bank, and I am going to lose 300 an ounce on my gold positions. What kind of deal could I make with Japan,what future consideration, what investment could I make to balance my losses?
Regardless of what anyone may think of my conspiracy theories, the question still is valid. What would be the most profitable place to put my money in relation to a domestic led economic recovery in Japan? If I was a GS, or a JPM?

RobotGuy

(02/08/2002; 14:13:15 MDT - Msg ID: 69636)

Pizz, if you don't mind, I have a few ideas.

I spend a lot of time in the great outdoors hiking etc. I can tell you what I carry on my back to survive 'out there'.

Firstly and most importantly is clean drinking water. Often in natural disasters the water supply either gets tainted, or all together fails to function. I have a marvelous device that I can place in beaver dung tainted lakes and I won't even get the slightest sniffle. It's a ceramic filter water pump that has an iodine resin in the filter. They have come down quite a bit in price since their introduction to the outdoors enthusiast and let me tell you, it's the most important thing you could own in any survival situation.

Non perishable foods including but not limited to dried soups and grains, oats, rice, fruits etc. Salt and sugar are also very important. Keep a lot of carbohydrates like rice, they will give you daily functioning energy. You might get tired of eating rice every day, but it will kep you alive.

I carry a sleeping bag good enough for the lowest temperatures encountered ever in whatever region I'm going to be in, especially mountainous regions.

Knives, string, and a good first aid kit are all very important for survival, a good honing stone is also very handy, but all of these things are for outback type survival except the first aid kit.

Portable stoves are very convenient for cooking, you could easily feed a family of four on a small portable camping type stove. Get two or three one gallon cans at least.

Those are the basics, but they'll let you see tomorrow.

:)

Jon

(02/08/2002; 14:27:13 MDT - Msg ID: 69637)

CoBra[too] Incredible foresight!!

Re; your msg # 69632: May we have your picks for next week now - instead of end of next week? Thanks.

Black Blade

(02/08/2002; 14:54:03 MDT - Msg ID: 69638)

Pizz - Food Storage

I have never been one to buy the expensive freeze-dried foods, though there are those who would go that route. I purchase food that I would eat regardless and I rotate the supply as I consume it and restock. I also have a wood-burning stove and an outdoor grill so electricity and natural gas supply is not a problem. I know that a lot of people had purchased generators in preparation for Y2K. I have a Honda generator that will work for the freezers if there is a power outage. If it were necessary I could season the meat and dry it to make jerky.

I have about 250 to 300 lbs of wild game (elk, venison, buffalo, duck, prairie chicken, Hungarian partridge, and trout) in the freezers. I also keep about 50 to 100 lbs of red beans, white beans, and rice. I have a couple boxes of saltines, about 20 pkg of spaghetti, a couple of cases of spaghetti sauce, and a case of pork-flavored ramen noodles. I also have a few cases of various canned goods such as beef stew, beef chunks, sweet corn, corned beef hash, salmon, chili con carne, peaches, and black berries. I also have a case of TP (I did say I have beans and chili?). I also keep some spices on hand such as salt, pepper, crushed peppers, cayenne, A-1 steak sauce, and haba--ero Tabasco sauce. I also keep a couple of cans of olive oil (keep refrigerated after opening as it can go rancid if you don't use it much) and a case of cooking oil on hand as well. If you have a sweet tooth, then a couple of bottles of honey or some sugar is good for storage. I keep 25 gallon jugs (used and cleaned milk jugs) with water that I occasionally refill - be sure to add a couple of drops of chlorine bleach for preservation and to prevent mold/algae buildup. On occasion I also home brew some adult beverages.

I also have several types of firearms suitable for hunting and plenty of ammunition, not to mention fishing gear. There is a lot of game nearby (sometimes right out the front door).

However, since you ask for something in case of no power or NG, you have to select those items that do not need cooking or that you can cook on an outdoor grill. You should consider food that you would consume anyway as you would want to rotate your supplies. It makes no sense to store something that you would not eat as food does tend to go bad over time (even canned goods or freeze-dried). You might want to go through your cupboards and take an inventory of what goods you regularly use and determine what can be stored and what items would be a good replacement for perishable goods. I have friends who regularly go to Costco or some food warehouse type vendor and purchase case lots of canned goods such as those I have described above. If you buy in case lots it is also much cheaper. A couple of my friends dry their own meats (jerky) and various fruits in a home built food dryer. They even make some very tasty fruit rolls. I even barter some game or home brew for fruit rolls and their dried apricots. These items can be stored for several months.

I would suggest that after you take inventory of what you have that you build up a food storage with a few additional cases of a particular canned or dried food item every time you go shopping. Maybe a couple of cases of sweet corn here and a case of canned meat there, etc. to start with. This is easier than trying to do it all at once and then you can ease into it a bit easier. I mostly think of this as another form of insurance and it comes in handy as I now sit atop the "Bone Pile" I am living off my stores and enjoying the time off with an occasional jaunt on snow shoes or cross-country skis. If it were cold enough I could be ice fishing. It looks like spring for some nice fly-fishing on some of the local streams and rivers.

A food storage program with a stockpile of a few months worth of food could come in handy during periods of unemployment, where the wage earner is temporarily disabled, or if there is a natural disaster. I hope that this helps but everyone has different tastes so what works for me may not necessarily work for someone else. Just as Gold and Silver is portfolio insurance, a good food storage program is good survival insurance. earth quake zone? I know what you mean - I lived in the SF Bay area a few years ago. Cheers!

- Black Blade

kludge

(02/08/2002; 14:54:28 MDT - Msg ID: 69639)

Pizz - If I might make a suggestion also...

...read "Making the Best of Basics" by James Talmage Stevens, it describes what to store, how to store it, and how to cook it (which could be important if you're thinking of storing raw foods like wheat, rice, and beans - as opposed to Rice-a-Roni, or Macaroni and Cheese :)

Personally, I use two methods of food storage - at home I just bought extra of the things we normally eat over time, and now just replenish and rotate stock as necessary. At my cottage, I buy true pre-packaged "survival type" food, in 5 gallon buckets and #10 cans mostly, and just replace it every couple years. The first way is cheaper and less wasteful, but the second is much easier.

Ditto what RobotGuy said about clean water. A .5 micron filter and 4 drops of Chlorox per gallon of water, and you can safely drink from just about any water source.

Good Luck

Pizz

(02/08/2002; 14:55:36 MDT - Msg ID: 69640)

RobotGuy

Thanks. (I'm a bit embarrassed, having a country boy backround, of some of the things you mentioned that I completely forgot, i.e., clean water. I can walk to a river, but would it be clean???)

I've always been somewhat prepared, but its time for a bit more due dilligence on the basics. In the Pacific NW we now have a possible financial upheaval (along with everybody else) and earthquake potential.

Black-Blade: A sincere thank-you for your continuing posts reminding all of basic necessities. Odds still are IMO we won't have to use them, but the odds appear to be shortening every day.

Pizz

Pizz

USAGOLD

(02/08/2002; 15:22:25 MDT - Msg ID: 69641)

Pizz, Black Blade. . .Stored Food

There's great satisfaction and comfort in a food storage of the type you describe. I buy bulk beef, turkey, chicken, etc instead of the game approach. I also go for the canned foods, etc. over dry food for the same reasons you do. I rotate like you do, so I buy what we are going to eat anyway. Gold and cash also enhance peace of mind. Not everyone has to adhere to the same approach to be successful, but, Pizz, you are headed in the right direction when you say you are going to sit down and think about it. Needs to work for you and your family. Don't forget us if you're thinking about hard gold, of course.

I think it makes alot of sense to be prepared. Look at Argentina. Those who think it can't happen here have no understanding of history and the fragilities in civilization it exposes.

One of the bigger weeks in a long time is drawing to a conclusion here at USAGOLD / CPM. Thanks to all for your on-going support of this gold firm and the time spent helping bring the public to a better understanding of gold and the economy here at this Forum. The USAGOLD website is special and means at great deal to a large number of people. We get congratulated at least once a day about the site -- and on most days -- many times. Those congratulations extend to all our posters. Thanks.

And of course everyone wants to know. . . . . . . .

Where's FOA?

Waverider

(02/08/2002; 15:31:42 MDT - Msg ID: 69642)

Pizz

A couple more ideas...I keep my scuba light that I use for night diving by my bedside (exceptionally bright/wide beam) in case of an emergency in the middle of the night. I also keep a flashlight, spare batteries and candles. You may want to think abut a spare radio that runs on batteries. Also, I do a lot of home-canning - fruits, pickles, jams, meats etc. You can rotate on a yearly basis and hey, beats store bought! Cheers,
Waverider

sourdough

(02/08/2002; 15:33:55 MDT - Msg ID: 69643)

Pizz (02/08/02; 13:38:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 69633)

Hi, I spent 10 years in the Yukon,mostly in the bush.
Start with a heat source,water, flour, baking powder'sugar, cooking oil and a frypan. (bannock boys, bannock).
the rest is luxuries. beans for protein.
What you want to put on it runs from jam, molasses, peanut butter, margarine,cheez whiz, etc.etc.etc.

Boxman

(02/08/2002; 15:54:51 MDT - Msg ID: 69644)

Pizz, food storage

Pizz, should you decide to store water long term, make sure that you do not use the scented bleaches. 3 to 4 drops per gallon will keep it safe for months. Also, do not use the plastic one gallon milk containers, as they are biodegradable, and you will have a mess on your hands in short order. The 2 liter soft drink containers are the best, unless you buy the 55 gallon water storage tanks, or even something bigger. Walmart sells 5 gallon containers for this purpose also, even have heavy duty handles.

A comprehensive food storage program, along with physical gold and silver and cash on hand and you will sleep like a baby.

I have enough food on hand, both freeze dried, and bulk food to feed 30 people for a year, and the fuel to cook it with. Talk about work, it was incredible.

The quickest way to be up and ready is the freeze dried type of foods, but they are rough on the digestive tract.
I have items stored that will enable me to cook the freeze dried foods, and not have to use much fuel.

Buying food that you eat every day is the best way to go, IMHO, but it does take a little time to put it together.

There are some canned foods that have a very long shelf life, such as tuna fish, and Dinty Moore Beef Stew (I am not particularly fond of this though). They can also be eaten right out of the can, if need be.

The best item to have is a source of water, and a way to purify it. There are some truly wonderful purifying systems. Research them all, as prices can vary considerably.

My guess is that there are many on this forum that have extensive knowledge concerning preps, as it seems that gold bugs like to be ready for any eventuality. Part of our nature I suppose.

Best of luck.

Boxman

(02/08/2002; 16:11:34 MDT - Msg ID: 69645)

Jim Puplavas' latest weekly update.

http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/update.htmI haven't had time to read it yet, but I am sure that it is a gem, or should I say that it is "golden".

Leigh

(02/08/2002; 16:17:43 MDT - Msg ID: 69646)

Where's FOA?

I wonder if a poetry contest devoted to FOA would bring him back? It wouldn't have to be a USAGOLD-sponsored one - we could do it ourselves! We could have winners for best poem, worst poem, most Johnny Cohranish poem ("My gold ain't for sale, cause I'm walkin' the Trail"), and so on. Is anyone up for this? It would be a great way to while away the hours till Sunday night.

I'm fixing dinner now, but I'll write up a little something later.

HOOSIER GOLDBUG

(02/08/2002; 16:48:27 MDT - Msg ID: 69647)

MY POEM!

Consistency and Perserverance! How much we need
To walk a measured GOLD TRAIL pace,
To live the life of real money of which we speak,
Until we see FOA's and ANOTHER's face.

slingshot

(02/08/2002; 17:05:54 MDT - Msg ID: 69648)

Water storage

CautionSome plastic containers may absorb milk. The problem is when the water temperature gets high enough the milk leeches into the water and contaminates it. Does not matter how many times you wash it.

Do not store any plastic near petroleum products for they can absorb vapors.

Those who can not store things up I suggest a three day Bug out bag. Just in case you have to get out fast.

Don't forget the Gold.

Y2K Jitters all over again.
Slingshot

Siochain

(02/08/2002; 17:11:07 MDT - Msg ID: 69649)

Preparation

I guess I'm also in the category of wanting to be prepared "just in case"...having on hand what I would need to get thru any initial emergency and then possible longer term for my family so I am enjoying the posts on the subject.

http://members.aol.com/vlabella/72hour_listb.htm The Frugal Shopper Disaster Shopper...lists what you should have on hand especially first 72 hours...a good review list

There are lots of others on the internet. What I have found useful is a solar powered radio that can work on batteries...adapter...solar panel...or even hand crank ... solar light and solar battery recharges etc.

Also hand warmers/feet warmer packs are small and handy to have.

Back-up power is something I'm looking for ...preferably some type with option of solar in case of long time outage....anyone having good info please let me know

I did see some great small portable solar/auto/battery power generators. in case you need to move fast or just additional for home

TownCrier

(02/08/2002; 17:16:08 MDT - Msg ID: 69650)

More highgrading from the mind of ANOTHER...

http://www.usagold.com/GoldTrail/archives/ANOTHER1.htmlAs you look at MK's handsome price chart on the Daily Market Report page, you might be inclined to think with a technical analyst's mind that, given a week or two, the current price spike will fade, giving you a more attractive buying price as gold continues its evident upward march. If only the world would behave so orderly, we'd all be millionaires from this SINGLE self-evident trading opportunity! The truth of the matter is, while gold is headed for a significant revaluation in the minds of Economic Man, you cannot know the path it will take in getting there. In this matter you must understand the future for what it is, then position yourself for the DESTINATION, while as a matter of course, remaining mindful of the contingencies for the journey. That said, I offer you the following from ANOTHER on the merits of TA through such a time as we have ahead.

Enjoy.
R.
-------

ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) Sat Oct 25 1997 10:24:
Why do the Swiss want to sell gold over many years when they could sell the entire lot in a week? Yes, the worldwide trading volume in gold could take the whole load and not drop the price below Fridays close! The reason for the "many long term selling announcements" is to keep the price down over time. The CBs would have you think that their selling would "crush the price"! The real effect would be exactly the opposite. The major world buyers would line up at the door to buy "the last sale of the century! Have you heard any CBs putting out "Proposals to Sell" for their entire stock of gold? Of course not, the response to buy would give off the absolute wrong signal and cause a revaluation of gold.

It is a far better use of a public asset when they use a small anount of it over time to ensure a reasonable price for OIL! If all gold was sold quickly, there would be no trading medium for deals! How far do you think an IOU would go if it didn't have gold in the background worth perhaps a 1,000 times it's current commodity price?

So what good is this information to the small investor? Not much if you run out and buy gold options, gold stocks, gold futures, etc.! Did you think the following quotes were good for those assets:

"That is why some "Big Traders" are holding ONLY gold as events unfold."

" One last note: No form of paper wealth will survive the financial crush once the CBs stop selling! NOTHING! "

"The market is changing now,,, it will go up but you will not be happy with the outcome."

"What is happening now is far, far larger than the interest of a few traders or mining companies. They will be stepped on!"

Gold bullion is being accumulated and cornered on a worldwide scale not seen before! UNDERSTAND THIS: The people who are buying do not expect the price to rise until the CBs slow their selling. They do expect the value of gold to increase in the future even as the banks sell into a rising market. This will happen as the sheer volume of trading completely overwhelms the entire worldwide market! The big buyers fully well expect gold to stop all trading as the governments enact DRACONIAN MEASURES to deal with a worldwide currency problem. The public in general will ask for these measures and to that effect, all paper connected to bullion will become "fair game"!

My projections and -----:

The gold market is not the same as it was in the past, so throw your charts and TA away! Nor will the gold market be the same in the future as it is today, so don't use paper substitutes! Today, gold is much more valuable than it has ever been! During your time a straight forward investment in "bullion only ' will far surpass any other asset you could hold!
---end---

Black Blade

(02/08/2002; 17:24:03 MDT - Msg ID: 69651)

Puplava Weekly Update

http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/update.htm
Snippit:

History has a habit of repeating itself. The same mistakes made in the past can often be viewed in the present. The background and the players may be different, but the parallels are there for all to see. So it should come as no surprise that the burst of the 1990's stock market bubble would be compared to similar events in 1929 and the 30's. There are many commonalities that appear vividly familiar. The technology boom of the 20's runs strikingly parallel to the tech boom of the 1990's. The infatuation of the public with the stock market, and the degree with which stocks became vehicles for speculation, resemble the broader sentiments of today's stock market investor. The 1920's stock market investor knew little about investing or the stocks that were bought or sold. Investors moved in herds in and out of stocks based on news events, hot tips or the actions of the ticker tape. Today's momentum investor and day trader follow similar tracks. News is what moves markets as does the action of the tape. In many ways, nothing has changed since the 1920's.

Black Blade: I know that Boxman posted te link - but this weeks update is especially worth reading. Puplava gives a very good comparison between the Crash of 1929 and the Great Depression, and what is turning into the popping of the speculative manias of the 1990's and the deepening New Depression. And much more. Definitely worth reading. I'm sure that this one will likely end up on the Gilded Opinion soon.

Anyway, gotta go to a beer tasting (or is that guzzling?) with some friends. Later.

Leigh

(02/08/2002; 17:53:17 MDT - Msg ID: 69652)

Waiting for Springtime

'Tis eventide along the Trail
A chilly night descends
Our garden tilled, we search in vain
For our Trail Guide and our friend.

He's left us now; he's gone apace
He walks the Trail alone
We weary travellers must find
The strength to carry on.

Lo! News comes in from lands afar
They're buying gold en masse!
From our vantage on the mountaintop
We watch, and raise our glass!

Soon our good Trail Guide will appear
The spring will burst in bloom
The Golden Trail will sparkle by day
And glow by light of moon.

Dear goldbugs, though the wait is long
And hearts may break with pain
Ne'er fear, for gold's a precious thing
We suffer not in vain.

TownCrier

(02/08/2002; 18:07:27 MDT - Msg ID: 69653)

Free and ample publicity

As global investor sentiment grows along with the climbing price, we now enter a period where one thought -- one word -- will be on everyone's lips (their chapped lips). Investments aside, the influence will nevertheless be there in the undercurrents of thought. With the start of the Winter Olympics, the media, the commercials, and the news will be seasoned abundantly with favorable comments about...GOLD!

R.

Waverider

(02/08/2002; 18:24:44 MDT - Msg ID: 69654)

Pompous Market Prognosticators

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/prognost.htmlI posted this once in the past but it is a fun read (posted again in light of Puplava). Cheers,
Waverider

Waverider

(02/08/2002; 18:28:06 MDT - Msg ID: 69655)

Leigh

That is absolutely *beautiful*!
Waverider

R Powell

(02/08/2002; 18:53:03 MDT - Msg ID: 69656)

Hamilton's latest

http://www.zealllc.com/2002/gold300.htm "6000 words?!? Hey, it's not every week that gold breaks through $300 for the first time in years!"
*****
For those who read Adam Hamilton. I can not comment other than to say it prints out at 15 pages. I have no doubt that it's worth the printing, he's one of my favorite.
Edelson, Kaplan and Blanchard said it couldn't be done! Happy Weekend!
Rich

Brett Woods

(02/08/2002; 18:59:30 MDT - Msg ID: 69657)

@Leigh

wow!

Leigh

(02/08/2002; 18:59:34 MDT - Msg ID: 69658)

Waverider

Thanks for the compliment! Actually, I had you in mind when I came up with the poetry idea. The one you wrote the other day was incredible. I'm so much in awe of your posts that I feel mine are very trite and insignificant.

Hoosier Goldbug, thanks for starting out the contest with your heartfelt poem! I wondered as I read it whether we actually have seen ANOTHER's or FOA's faces on TV or elsewhere and didn't know who they "really" were.

Trapper

(02/08/2002; 20:17:46 MDT - Msg ID: 69659)

PIZZ on food storage

Having stored food is an excellent idea, my philosophy is to be self reliant. I can all my wild meat and fish and will tell you nothing is better. Better for you and better taste also. The big plus is you know what went into the jars. I only see problems if you live in a big city and have to scoot. Then I suggest learning to live in the back country. I quit a $70.0000 a year job and moved back to the woods as I must pratice what I preach. If you are not opposed, learn to hunt fish and trap. If you don't like that a the least learn to farm. I feel this next depression will last a lot longer than most, and folks now days ain't as nice as they were in the last one. Live small.
RJ

Black Blade

(02/08/2002; 20:32:59 MDT - Msg ID: 69660)

A sleeping Giant has Awakened

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

Friday's Stock Market Round-Up

Gold Glittering Once Again A sleeping giant has awakened from its decades-long slumber. One of the more remarkable aspects of the financial markets this week was the break out in gold prices. The rise in precious metals shares, which led the stock markets last year, has been largely dismissed by the financial media. Precious metals may no longer be possible to ignore. Gold has tried to break out several times over the last year -- once in May of 2001 and again in September following the World Trade Center attack, and now, this week. For the first time since June 2000, the price of gold has remained above $300 an ounce. There have been several attempts this week, but on Thursday the price of gold stayed above $300. Today the price advanced by nearly another $4 to close out the week at $304.40.

Will It Stick?

Now the question is, Is this rally for real? There have been several attempts at a rally over the last few years, but none of them could stick. Gold bullion selling by central banks, or gold leasing by New York and European bullion banks, or producer hedging would always knock the price of gold down. Many of those incentives to sell have now been removed. The short-term interest rates, which have fallen below 2%, no longer make it profitable to borrow and sell gold. In addition to lower interest rates, the gold lease rate has been rising lately and is now over 1.5%. Ending of the gold carry trade has removed a potential supply source from the market. In addition to a restraint on supply, another factor that has reduced supply is the exploration business has gone into remission with lower prices for gold. The majors have found it more profitable to gobble up mid-tier companies or juniors rather than explore for gold.

On the demand-side, gold demand has been growing each year, especially in the world's emerging economies. The estimated gold deficit each year is between 1000-1500 tons. Without the steady dis-hoarding by central banks, gold prices would have risen long ago. Now there are other reasons gold is starting to shine. Fiscal distress is erupting all over the globe. You don't hear about it in the mainstream press, but it is there if you know where to look. In Japan, the government will begin to start phasing out bank deposit insurance starting this April. Japanese citizens are rushing into to gold to protect themselves. The loss of deposit protection, combined with a plunging Japanese yen, is driving gold sales through the roof. Over 21 metric tons of gold have been bought by Japanese investors during the fourth quarter alone. That's a 50% increase over the previous year.

In Argentina, the wealthy have already moved out of dollars and into gold while the not-so-fortunate see their life savings wiped out by currency devaluation. Around the globe and in the US there is a growing feeling that the world's financial system is breaking down. From hedge fund disasters to rogue traders at banks to major bankruptcies, all spell trouble ahead. In past crises, the safe haven has always been the dollar, but many of today's problems are occurring in the U.S. so the dollar is considered to be less than safe. There is also growing skepticism of the Federal Reserve's ability to manage the growing crises. Investors are doing what they have always done over the long years of history, which is to return to the currency of last resort: in this instance, gold and silver. That may explain why the Amex Gold Index is up over 35% this year and up over 87% over the last 52 weeks. The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index is up over 25% year-to-date and up over 47% over the last twelve months. Is anyone in the financial media paying attention?

Black Blade: Puplava's daily update. He tackles Gold this time. This is exactly what we have been discussing here. It is good to see in print. The whole Earth is a mine-field with one scandal or surprise economic disaster after another. Now we have the effects of Enronitis - whether it is Enron, Global Crossing, Qualcomm, Tyco, Worldcom, Cendant, etc. or economic calamity such as the currency crisis and insolvent banks in Japan, or even the currency crisis or bankruptcy of a nation as in Argentina. The World is a different place now as wars and rumors of wars are everyday events, where terrorism is a constant threat. Gold is a constant that has been a safe haven throughout the millennia. It is no wonder then that Japanese housewives are buying Gold bars, or wealthy Argentines are purchasing Gold to preserve wealth, or that the equities markets are leaning toward Gold producers. Not bad for a "barbarous relic".

Cavan Man

(02/08/2002; 20:37:52 MDT - Msg ID: 69661)

Dear Leigh

If that doesn't bring him back nothing will--beautiful.

Black Blade

(02/08/2002; 20:51:56 MDT - Msg ID: 69662)

Market Summary by Lance Lewis

http://www.dailymarketsummary.net/Today.htm
Snippit:

So, the stage is still set for something to happen in currency land, but there is no overwhelming evidence from the market that it will. Nevertheless, trouble continues to be on the horizon, and the market may break the dollar all on its own with the way things are progressing. Gold feeds on a general lack of confidence. The action of the last few weeks both in gold and stocks confirms to me that the market is finally losing the stubborn bullish confidence in stocks that it has held for the last 20 years of the bull market and amazingly during the first couple years of the current bear market as well. The market is losing confidence in companies' financials, confidence in the recovery, confidence in analysts, and confidence in the widely held belief that setbacks in the market are always met with rallies back to new highs once the Fed has worked its "magic." A lack of confidence in the dollar is the next shoe to drop I think. The risk continues to be to the downside regardless of what happens or doesn't happen this weekend. So, keep those helmets close by�

Black Blade: And another analysis of the Gold market.

Cavan Man

(02/08/2002; 20:55:01 MDT - Msg ID: 69663)

Japanese Prime Minsiter last seen...

......bundling Treasury notes, bills and bonds for trip east.
O'Neill, U.S. Officials Shift, Turn Tough on Japan
(Update2)
By Simon Kennedy

Washington, Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Concern over Japan's third recession in a
decade and frustration with the inability of its leaders to spark a recovery has led
the Bush administration to jettison a promise not to lobby Japanese officials in
public for action.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill has said he will pressure his Japanese
counterpart, Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa, at meetings this weekend in
Ottawa, to take steps to clean up the banking system and boost growth.

``Reality has set in,'' said Gregory B. Fager, the top Asia specialist at the
Institute of International Finance. ``The Bush team came in saying they weren't
going to be as critical as the Clinton officials and then they realized Japan is a
source of instability and that they have to apply pressure.''

O'Neill first changed his tone during a visit to Tokyo in January, breaking the
pledge he and White House officials made last year to reverse Clinton
administration policy and counsel Japan in private. The reversal reflects alarm
within the U.S. government that unchecked stagnation in the world's second
largest economy has financial and geopolitical implications for itself and other
countries, analysts said.

The Treasury secretary told Japanese officials in Tokyo on Jan. 23 that their
efforts to extract the nation from an 11-year slump had failed. Policies aimed at
cheapening the yen and boosting public spending should be replaced by efforts
to reduce 151 trillion yen of bad bank loans and curb deflation, he said.

`Decisive Actions'

``Decisive actions are necessary to solve difficult problems,'' O'Neill said in a
speech at Tokyo's National Press Club. ``Returning to robust and durable growth
is of the utmost importance to Japan, to the U.S., and to the world.''

Japanese consumer prices have fallen for 27 consecutive months, retail spending
dropped for a fifth year in a row during 2001 and unemployment has reached a
record 5.6 percent. Data released today showed household spending fell in
December, cementing a ninth year of declines. The economy won't grow in the
fiscal year beginning April 1, according to government forecasts.

Deterioration in Japan's economy will have effects beyond its borders, analysts
said. John Makin, an American Enterprise Institute economist, predicts
Japanese savers will shrink their bank accounts when deposit insurance
coverage is pared back in April, calculating the resulting fallout will cost the
government $1 trillion to fix.

``Such a crisis would reverberate through the global economy and financial
markets,'' said Ron Bevacqua, a senior economist at Commerz Securities
(Japan) Ltd. ``A sharp reduction in demand as the economy implodes would
likely be followed by a large-scale repatriation of capital that would leave many
economies starved for capital.''

Falling Yen

Even if such a meltdown is avoided, the ongoing slump could weaken other Asian
economies, and perhaps lead to competitive devaluations, analysts said. That
could undermine the world economy at a time when the U.S. is in recession. A
global slowdown began in mid-1997 with the devaluation of the Thai baht.

The yen has declined 16 percent against the dollar since the beginning of last
year and fallen for the four of the last five weeks on doubts that Japanese policy
makers will do enough to boost growth.

Japan's currency fell to 134.64 per dollar, from 133.79, leaving it about a half-yen
from the three-year low it sank to last month. Just this week it shed 1.2 percent
against the dollar and 2.5 percent against the euro.

China, Malaysia, South Korea, and U.S. manufacturers have said Japan is
pursuing a weaker currency, hoping to increase exports, rather than attempting
difficult reforms. O'Neill warned in Tokyo that he won't condone such a policy,
because ``exchange rates cannot improve productivity or fix non-performing
loans.''

Policy U-Turn

There's also a geopolitical calculation in the move to a harsher stance on Japan.
Without a pickup in growth, Japan will be overtaken by China as Asia's premier
economy within two decades, analysts said. Government figures are expected to
show China's economy grew 7.3 percent last year.

``Japan is viewed as a useful friend to the U.S. which looks upon it to keep a
check on China,'' said John Pike, a military analyst for GlobalSecurity.org, a
defense research group.

Underscoring the administration's concern on that front, Secretary of State Colin
Powell accompanied O'Neill to a meeting in January with Prime Minister
Junichiro Koizumi. He told the Japanese leader his country must again become
an ``economic engine'' in its region.

The administration-wide wake-up call to Japan marks a U-turn from a year ago.
Then, O'Neill spoke of approaching its leaders with ``humility.'' Top White House
economist Lawrence Lindsey also argued that ``gaiatsu,'' or foreign pressure, had
proved counter- productive for the Clinton administration and should be replaced
``by a policy of mutual cooperation and respect.''

Summers in Prague

It was common for Lawrence Summers, O'Neill's immediate predecessor in the
Clinton Treasury, to make public comments about what Japan should do.

In September 2000, at the annual meetings of the World Bank and International
Monetary Fund in Prague, Summers said it was ``critical'' for Japanese policy
makers to ``maintain supportive fiscal and monetary policies.'' In a meeting with
Summers in Prague, Japanese Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa promised the
government would spend more money to boost the economy.

O'Neill's approach may be seen as different because he isn't as specific as
Summers in his policy prescriptions. He also has praised Koizumi's embrace of
reform and expressed faith that Japan will return to growth.

``When Summers walked into a room, the Japanese felt they were being
browbeaten, while O'Neill has a more gentlemanly atmosphere about him which
may lessen his blows,'' said Ed Lincoln, a senior fellow at the Brookings
Institution, and a former economic adviser to the U.S. Embassy in Tokyo.

``But, what O'Neill had to say could easily have been said by Summers.''

�2002 Bloomberg L.P. All rights reserved. Terms of Service, Privacy Policy and Trademarks.

Cavan Man

(02/08/2002; 20:58:33 MDT - Msg ID: 69664)

The Japanese are proud people.

Can they play the role of "fall guy"?

Black Blade

(02/08/2002; 21:12:29 MDT - Msg ID: 69665)

Gold rush is on as fear takes a hold

http://money.guardian.co.uk/investments/fundsbondstrusts/story/0,1456,647317,00.html
Snippit:

Gold is traditionally a popular draw during times of economic and political instability, and a combination of factors is behind its current revival. The price rose sharply in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks and has been given a fresh boost by a clutch of what one expert dubbed "fear factors".

Within a short time, we have had the collapse of US energy giant Enron, discount retailer Kmart and telecoms company Global Crossing both filing for bankruptcy, and criticism of financial practices at industrial conglomerate Tyco and Irish pharmaceuticals firm Elan. These have in turn sparked fears of potential accounting problems at other companies.

Then this week there were the revelations that Allied Irish Banks had been defrauded of �530m in the US. All of this has put already-wobbly stock markets in a fresh spin.

Fuelling this is the current surge in demand for gold among the Japanese public, triggered by the decision of the government there to ditch rules that guarantee people's savings in the event of a bank collapse. With the Japanese stock market in turmoil and the yen falling, many people have been pulling their money out of accounts and buying jewellery and gold coins.

Added to that, gold production is starting to decline, which suggests the supply of gold will fall. Merrill Lynch reckons that these factors along with unstable stock markets and low interest rates mean that "the outlook for gold remains positive".

Black Blade: Yet another take on the Gold market. I think that perhaps we are close to establishing a new floor for the price of Gold. As the equities markets continue to plunge on uncertainty and more scandals come to light in the face of deceptive accounting, we will likely see the POG climb to new highs in the coming weeks/months.

Black Blade

(02/08/2002; 21:32:20 MDT - Msg ID: 69666)

Gold could push higher

http://www.news24.com/News24/Finance/Markets/0,4186,2-8-21_1142022,00.html
Snippit:

London - Gold held on to this week's gains of over US$20 in Europe on Friday and was seen building a base around $305 an ounce before challenging higher numbers next week, traders said.

Black Blade: Gold Mining shares tend to "front run" the POG. If the current run in Gold Mining stocks (especially Non-hedger Gold stocks) are any indicator then we should see further price increases for bullion.

Black Blade

(02/08/2002; 21:43:00 MDT - Msg ID: 69667)

Foreigners who bought our gold reap windfall

http://www.smh.com.au/news/0202/09/biztech/biztech11.html
Snippit:

Gold shares have been pushed to five-year highs in response to the long-awaited gold price rally which has raised hopes that the industry might yet be able to hold on to the record production levels of recent years.

But a darker side to the emerging boom is becoming known as the Great Australian Gold Robbery. It's a pointed reference to the invasion of the $5.5 billion export industry by foreign groups.

Black Blade: There are those in OZ who are now crying "We was robbed!" as they see their Gold mines snapped up by foreign interests. I wonder what the Brits think about the stellar returns on their BoE Gold auctions? Will they cast an eye toward Capt. Tony and Eddie George and say "We was robbed!" Think it's time for an audit at Fort Knox (excluding Arthur Andersen of course) Hmmm�

Black Blade

(02/08/2002; 22:10:36 MDT - Msg ID: 69668)

Gold Rush

http://biz.yahoo.com/fo/020208/0208watch_1.html
Snippit:

Gold's convulsive action this week, spiking above $307, has excited attention because of concurrent concerns about the financial system, exchange rates, accounting standards, etc.

Chris Temple of National Investor has a more technical theory. He writes: "As I've discussed in recent weeks, Newmont's successful acquisition of Normandy Mining and Franco-Nevada helped stoke some of this bullishness earlier, as the market cheered the non-hedging policy of Newmont as opposed to South Africa's Anglo Gold, its competing bidder. Newmont has already promised to begin unwinding Normandy's hedge book in an orderly fashion.

"For those still a bit confused by this, Anglo, Normandy and Barrick Gold have been among the biggest gold hedgers in the industry in recent years. Their practices, boiled down, have been to sell future gold production at current prices. While this served to 'lock in' a decent price in a declining market for gold in the late 1990s, gold bugs have hated the practice, as it served to do little more than strengthen the bearish grip on gold...Anglo has now said that it, too, will begin unwinding its hedge positions. This bet on a rising gold price by the big South African miner is a key reason why even more bullishness has crept into the gold arena."

Black Blade: The days of the hedger are over. Barrick and AngloGold will find themselves left alone with disgruntled shareholders who will say "We was robbed!"

Waverider

(02/08/2002; 22:27:33 MDT - Msg ID: 69669)

Ode to TG

Oh, Trail Guide I seek your advice
I�ve a constant torment that's not so nice,
To keep physical only or proxies near -
Many opinions don't make the picture clear.

Belgian is a "physical only" guy
He tries to convince me - I know not why,
Uponroof's a 40-40-20 man,
He's built a "case for stocks" like no other can!

Timbervision shares my own conflict -
Pay the tax and see RRSP's constrict?
To 50 percent of previous amount -
Oh that hurts when my poor fiat I count.

100% appreciation's been mighty enticing
So stocks, you see, are soooo.. inviting,
So please come back, so the Truth be told
Why I should buy *only* physical Gold.

Waverider

Black Blade

(02/08/2002; 22:30:22 MDT - Msg ID: 69670)

Japanese, Fearing End Of Guarantee On Savings, Buy Gold

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/020207/15/2fvig.html
Snippit:

TOKYO (AP)--With their banks battling a recession and bad loans, some Japanese worried about the imminent end of a blanket guarantee on their savings are sinking their money into something that looks more solid -gold.

Sales of $10,000 gold bars at Tanaka Kikinzoku Jewelry in downtown Tokyo have more than doubled in the past several months, company officials said Thursday. They refused to give specific figures, but said some customers have bought as many as 40 of the 2.2-pound bars.

"The end of the government insurance on savings is a big factor," jewelry company spokesman Masakazu Tanaka said. "People are looking for a secure place to put their money."

The Japanese government has offered an unlimited guarantee on bank deposits since shortly after the 1997-98 financial crisis toppled major banks and set off fears of a nationwide run on banks. But come April, it will only insure some types of bank deposits, totaling about $4 trillion nationwide, up to only $75,000. As a result, larger accounts have been shrinking gradually, finance officials say.

Black Blade: The Gold buying frenzy in Japan has not ended or even slowed down. The banking rules changes go into effect on April 1st (yeah - April Fools Day). We should see continued buying in Japan for quite some time. Also, the Government Postal Savings plan has dropped interest rates again - this time next to zero. I suspect that many more Japanese will jump into Gold very soon.

LeSin

(02/08/2002; 23:26:49 MDT - Msg ID: 69671)

EU's - Patten of UK ( ex Hong Kong) displays "Political Will"

http://www.guardian.co.uk/bush/story/0,7369,647554,00.html
Patten lays into Bush's America

Fury at president's 'axis of evil' speech

Jonathan Freedland in Brussels
Saturday February 9, 2002
The Guardian

Chris Patten, the EU commissioner in charge of Europe's international relations, has launched a scathing attack on American foreign policy - accusing the Bush administration of a dangerously "absolutist and simplistic" stance towards the rest of the world.
As EU officials warned of a rift opening up between Europe and the US wider than at any time for half a century, Mr Patten tells the Guardian it is time European governments spoke up and stopped Washington before it goes into "unilateralist overdrive".

"Gulliver can't go it alone, and I don't think it's helpful if we regard ourselves as so Lilliputian that we can't speak up and say it," he says in today's interview.

Mr Patten's broadside came as the French prime minister, Lionel Jospin, warned the US yesterday not to give in to "the strong temptation of unilateralism".

Like France, Mr Patten singled out Mr Bush's branding of Iraq, Iran and North Korea as "an axis of evil".

"I find it hard to believe that's a thought-through policy," he says, adding that the phrase was deeply "unhelpful".

EU officials concede that the US and Europe could now be on a collision course over Iran, with the EU determined to forge a trade and cooperation agreement with Tehran just as Washington has deemed it an "evil" sponsor of terror.

Mr Patten insists that the European policy of "constructive engagement" with Iranian moderates and North Korea is much more likely to bring results than a US policy which so far consists of "more rhetoric than substance".

The commissioner's remarks represent the most public statement yet of what has become a growing sense of alarm in Europe's capitals at the increasingly belligerent tone adopted by Washington.

One senior EU official said: "It is humiliating and demeaning if we feel we have to go and get our homework marked by Dick Cheney and Condi Rice. We've got to stop thinking that the only policy we can have is one that doesn't get vetoed by the United States."

Publicly, the British government continues to stand "shoulder to shoulder" with Mr Bush. But senior Labour figures admit they are deeply troubled by the newly aggressive thrust of US thinking - especially the hints that America could widen the war against terrorism to a clutch of new countries. They are likely to seize on Mr Patten's remarks as they press their case with Tony Blair.

In the interview the former Conservative party chairman delivers a devastatingly comprehensive critique of US strategy. He upbraids Washington for showing much more interest in stamping out terrorism than in tackling terror's root causes.

"When you're addressing that agenda, frankly, smart bombs have their place but smart development assistance seems to me even more significant," he said.

That view is widely held in Europe, typified by Mr Blair's much-quoted "heal the world" speech last year in Brighton. But it barely gets a hearing in today's Washington, Mr Patten concedes, especially since the dramatic success of the US-led military operation in Afghanistan. That has fed a new US mood of "intense triumphalism", according to EU officials, with secretary of state Colin Powell regarded as "a lone voice of reason".

Mr Bush's "axis of evil" speech appears to have been the last straw for EU policymakers. In today's interview, Mr Patten offers withering condemnation of the phrase.

Besides balking at the word "evil", he disputes whether the three countries named are an axis at all, insisting there is no evidence that they are working together on weapons of mass destruction. But Mr Patten also expresses great irritation with Washington for undermining long-established EU efforts to reach out to Tehran and Pyongyang.

"There is more to be said for trying to engage and to draw these societies into the international community than to cut them off," he says.

But Mr Patten's greatest ire is reserved for America's go-it-alone approach to international relations. "However mighty you are, even if you're the greatest superpower in the world, you cannot do it all on your own."

He calls on Europe's 15 member states to put aside their traditional wariness of angering the US and to speak up, forging an international stance of their own on issues ranging from the Middle East to global warming

Waverider

(02/08/2002; 23:42:51 MDT - Msg ID: 69672)

Leigh

Thanks too for the complement. Your beautiful and heart-felt poem has my vote for first place. I noticed a few others posted poetry this past week - maybe we'll see more -poetry is fun. Cheers,
Waverider

Mr Gresham

(02/09/2002; 00:53:05 MDT - Msg ID: 69673)

Emergency Preparations

http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a.tcl?topic=TimeBomb%202000%20%28Y2000%29%20Preparation%20ForumThese discussions went on three years ago, and some wonderful people from all regions shared their best ideas and experiences...

Mr Gresham

(02/09/2002; 01:00:58 MDT - Msg ID: 69674)

Y2k forum

http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a.tcl?topic=TimeBomb%202000%20%28Y2000%29The larger discussion board (over 360,000 posts) is at this link, and is not active now. Amazing discussions, online happenings, parties, music, Dieter, and even an occasional early appearance by the ever-doomful Mr G. (usually under the "Banking/finance" heading -- 1391 discussion threads -- and where most PM discussion took place)

Black Blade

(02/09/2002; 02:35:31 MDT - Msg ID: 69675)

Goodyear to Cut 3,500 Jobs

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020208/ap_on_bi_ge/earns_goodyear_4
Snippit:

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) - The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. on Friday reported losses for the fourth quarter and full year and said it will cut 3,500 more jobs this year to reduce costs.

Black Blade: More "Bones" wheeled off to the growing "Bone Pile". And the Pimps of Wall Street claim that economic recovery is "around the corner."

Black Blade

(02/09/2002; 02:42:08 MDT - Msg ID: 69676)

Crown Cork cutting 700 jobs, closing plants

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020208/n08249393_1.html
Snippit:

PHILADELPHIA, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Crown Cork & Seal Co. (NYSE:CCK) on Friday said it will cut about 2 percent of its work force, close plants and sell assets, taking almost $300 million in charges, in a move the company says will improve its financial performance.

Black Blade: More "Bones" off to the "Bone Pile."

Black Blade

(02/09/2002; 02:54:51 MDT - Msg ID: 69677)

The Devil is in the details

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/sm/20020208/bs_sm/the_devil_is_in_the_details
Snippit:

The jobless rate unexpectedly fell to 5.6% in January from 5.8% in December 2001. But businesses eliminated a more-than-forecast 89,000 jobs, bringing the total loss since the recession began last March to 1.4 million. Although a majority of economists had expected the unemployment rate to notch up to 5.9%, Wall Street was looking for a moderate job loss in the range of 25,000 to 50,000. ``The truth of it is, this is not a very friendly report for the economy,'' says Ethan Harris, senior economist at Lehman Brothers. ``The talk about the recession being already over is probably wrong.''

The brightest piece of Friday's jobs report - the drop in the unemployment rate - isn't so friendly on closer inspection, says Harris. The decline in joblessness was attributable not to a pickup in new hiring but to a significant shrinkage in the labor-force participation rate. Because 924,000 people stopped actively seeking work, the government didn't include them among the ranks of the unemployed. ``The drop in the work force is a sign of workers falling out of the system,'' says Harris. ``It's a sign of workers giving up.''

But it might be unrealistic to expect new hiring to follow suit quickly. Indeed, the length of time it takes to find a job continues to grow. The median duration of unemployment rose to 8.8 weeks in January from 5.9 weeks a year ago, suggesting that laid-off workers aren't being quickly reabsorbed into the work force. People who've been unemployed for more than 15 weeks now account for roughly a third of the total 7.9 million jobless, according to Lehman Brothers. That's especially troubling since Congress has yet to approve a 13-week extension of unemployment benefits.

Black Blade: So it goes - the "Bone Pile" grows.

Black Blade

(02/09/2002; 05:20:56 MDT - Msg ID: 69678)

Bullish bullion all set for more glow

http://www.busrep.co.za/html/busrep/br_frame_decider.php?click_id=345&art_id=ct20020208195508909S3243268&set_id=60
Snippit:

"The temperature for gold has changed. It seems like there is a lot of new investment coming in. I think we can look to further gains next week," one bullion trader said. Much of the rise was due to buying by Japanese investors but dealers said a breach of key resistance levels on historic price charts could fuel increased speculative buying. "If we do close above $300 today, it's a good technical point and we might see more technical buying next week," a dealer in London said. Traders saw resistance at $308, adding that if that level was breached, $320 would be the next challenge.

One European trader said: "We've seen the Japanese continuing to buy a bit every day and the market is very sensitive to the upside at the moment." The Tokyo commodities exchange has registered record trading volumes in gold this week, while the yen gold price has leapt to three-year highs. Weakness in equities has also increased gold's allure. Wall Street stocks fell this week, on fears of bankruptcies and concerns over corporate accounting practices following the collapse of Enron. "Gold has benefited from a lack of alternative investments. Concerns about equities and the economy in Japan are conducive to higher gold prices," another trader said.

Black Blade: So far so good. It appears that next week could be key. It will be up to Europe at the start as Japanese markets are closed on Monday for yet another holiday. However, the Japanese will likely continue to buy physical Gold and Platinum. The insolvent Japanese banks no longer have any honor as they will not insure Japanese citizens savings. The Japanese are voting with their feet and are purchasing Gold as a wealth preservation vehicle and safe haven.

Belgian

(02/09/2002; 07:08:51 MDT - Msg ID: 69680)

Geo-Tensions building !

C. Patten (UK) "not" so diplomatic language, telling big brother how Europ feels about the "axis of evil". CNBC-Europ (saturday) with a documentary on Arabian oil (Gulf states) accumulation excess US dollars and trade relations with Europ ! As if Another's map (1997) was televized in this program ! Seiks (in goldbrokat tunics) talking about dollars/oil and euro/Europ. Exposure of a Irak / Syrian pipeline sanction buster ! Europ (France) at immediate support for UK / Iran unwanted ambassador row (spy ?) .
China T-shirt best seller with picture of OBL (bad taste !).
CNN is massaging US citizens into a "Jemen" action plan.
Pretty close to Saudi Arabia.

All these minor (public) events do point to "polarization" against the dollar. Zelotes also states that Gold doen't need a crashing dollar per s�. Note that Barrick (ABX) appreciated less (11%) than POG (+13%). Sir Adam has the courage to advise on Physical and caution with miners. Great !

The Bush clan (CFR/TC) has been preparing the Eurasian conquest FOR QUITE SOME TIME NOW ! The present tension building has been carefully planned.

USAGold, thanks for reminding us about TG's vieuw of the 1 tonne per day Gold sales. Yes, there is only one correct explanation for this particular modus operandi : Accumulation of as much as possible, CHEAP Physical, by Giants ! And more precisely, those Giants under the US dollar yoke, looking for a long awaited alternative.

All heavy (TG) rains announce their arrival with a first drop(s). WA >> hedgestop >> POG above 300$ >> ...Physical

Thanks for the inspiring poetry.

tedw

(02/09/2002; 09:44:48 MDT - Msg ID: 69681)

investor demand

The one element that has been missing in the Gold Market has been investment demand.This past week that element has entered back into the market.

It may be wishful thinking but I predict $325+ gold soon which is the historic 20 year average price.

tedw

(02/09/2002; 09:46:35 MDT - Msg ID: 69684)

investor demand

Interstate

(02/09/2002; 10:35:19 MDT - Msg ID: 69685)

Preparation/Insurance

I have been out of town and have been catching up this morning on reading USAG. Great thoughts on preparations, but I have a couple I'd like to share. I visited the Agriculture Extension Center and learned that dry foods (flour, beans, rice, pasta, etc.) can be stored in glass containers with 4-5 bay leaves. one on the bottom and then about every 3 inches. My wife and I did this 3 years ago and it is all still in good condition - no mold, no weavils. I went to the Health Department and learned to put 8 drops of clorox in each gallon of water. Let it sit for at least 30 minutes and then pour it back and forth with another sterilized container several times and that will remove most of the chlorine taste.
Later,
Interstate P.S. Don't forget the pets.

Pizz

(02/09/2002; 13:22:36 MDT - Msg ID: 69687)

(No Subject)

Drove by large foundry this morning. They make concrete bank vaults.

Their storage yard (acres) had vault castings stacked 3 high as far as the eye could see.

Conclusions:

1. Business is good and banks are planning major branch expansions.

2. Banks need more vaults to hold gold (smile).

3. Arthur Anderson is their auditor and is still allowing them to carry the inventory at production cost since all they have to do is minor modifications to make ferry anchors out of them.

Pizz

Pizz

(02/09/2002; 14:11:08 MDT - Msg ID: 69688)

My Contribution to the FOA Recall

Once upon a time
In a land of corruption
A man came along
With thoughts of disruption.

His mind was quick
With insight so keen
He proceeded to post
So all could be seen.

He knew his mission
And set his mind.
Only a few would heed
But wealth they would find.

He planted the seeds
Of a golden crop.
Fiat to burn
The dollar to drop.

The Euro to grow
And powers that be
Could not hide
And all would see.

But then one day
In the midst of the fray
He packed his bags
and his posts went away.

His rivals smile
His followers wander.
Without a leader
their wealth to squander.

If this is our test
and you're out there lurking
Get your butt back
and stop your smirking.

sector

(02/09/2002; 14:24:53 MDT - Msg ID: 69689)

@tedw...About the New Physical Demand from Japan

Without this new Japanese draw factor the cabal has been successful in controlling pog.

This time it will be more difficult in so far as they must have recently done the math:

There are 150 million Japanese, grouped roughly in fours for 25 million families. Each family has $115,000 in cash depositi of which $35,000 will lose insurance in April 2002. Therefore, $875, 000, 000, 000 in deposits are soon to be placed at risk [$35,000 x 25,000 = $875 Billion].

If only 17% of that amount is moved to physical gold [the falling yen showed a yield of 25% gold gain last year] then the draw will be:

$148,750,000,000 � $305 = 487,704,918. troy ounces or

487,704,918 � 32,160 [ounces per tonne] = 15,165 tonnes of gold.

(Previous calculations revealed 19 thousand tonnes but those were done at a $285 gold price.)

The United States plus the IMF does not have 15 ,000 tonnes of metal to deal with this eventuality. At most, after the WA the US has 5,500 to 6,000 tonnes since Turk and Hepburn found the 2,000 tonne [$20,000] book entry debit [Gold and Foreign Currency, note #2, 2000] in GAAP Consolidated Financial Statements for the US. The previous total was 8,000 tonnes thus the new weight of 5,500 to 6,000 tonnes. The IMF reported some 3000 tonnes.

The question facing the MoTU [Master of the Universe] and his tribe is How long can they run the charade? Which is to say how much US/IMF gold do they wish to throw away? All of it?

Dumping all US/IMF gold will mean an immediate run on the dollar and would result in Bannana Republic inflation. The mechanism of price discovery has been exposed thanks to GATA's tireless work.

Imagining that the Japanese will knuckle under to a possible repressive move to BAN Japanese gold sales in ordeer to quell the draw is absurd. The Japanses know all about LDP corruption. When it comes to THEIR stash...THEIR life savings they will just not stand by and watch it eroded by a falling yen.

A key elemment in assessing the Fed's desperation is to assume they HAVE been selling America's gold as the facts unearthed by a platoon of GATA soldiers reveal. It follows from Adam Hamilton's recent piece on the South African Rand that the Treasury and Fed have moved further into the domain of evil by smashing the rand so as to keep their Anglogold and other inside forward sellers marginally alive. See... there must be a supply of metal to sell...what better way to help your forward sellers WITHOUT entering the market? Such a policy directed at a deprived, Third World nation is as risky as it gets. One whistle blower away from pushing Enron executives off the media gallows. One conscience away from replacing Kenneth Lay with Paul O�Neill, Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers...dressed in orange jump suits.

The above calculation of 17% may be too conservative, What if HALF the Japanese families move to gold as the yen keeps falling?

It's 44,602 tonnes of gold just to the Japanese.

Would the Chinese sit on their hands during a Japanese gold stampede? Would the Indians? How about the Saudis with their newfound political "independence" from the West?

At the G-7 meeting [happening now] these numbers are well understood by those who have the metal and poorly appreciated by those who do not.

The people with the metal will win the argument. The moment of self preservation seems to be at hand.

Leigh

(02/09/2002; 14:31:35 MDT - Msg ID: 69690)

Pizz

Yes! Yes! That'll bring him back for sure!!

Who else wants to contribute a poem to our come-back-FOA campaign? I'm going to try to write a really bad rhyme sometime this weekend to try to win the "worst poem" category.

Cavan Man

(02/09/2002; 14:48:16 MDT - Msg ID: 69691)

@ Pizz & @ sector

Keep on "keepin' on". Thanks so much for both of your fine insights. I do think we're real clsoe to a major turn but it is just intuition on my part.

Matt

(02/09/2002; 14:49:45 MDT - Msg ID: 69692)

Hear Ye!

Roses are red, violets are blue
FOA--if I were you,
I'd take heart and tread the trail,
to let us know that all is well!

Simple yes---but I'm at work and can only take three minutes. Best wishes to all--hope this bull is REAL!

TownCrier

(02/09/2002; 15:19:01 MDT - Msg ID: 69693)

HEADLINE, South Africa: Banks correct overdone dip and buyers pile into gold

http://www.busrep.co.za/html/busrep/br_frame_decider.php?click_id=335&art_id=ct20020208191005118S3562404&set_id=60February 09 2002 at 07:48AM
--------Johannesburg - President Thabo Mbeki's state of the nation address was treated as a non-event by the stock market yesterday as investors opted to focus on gold as a buffer against more expected bad news from the US and the global economy.

...Paul Marais, a senior analyst at Barnard Jacobs Mellet, said the market was dominated by a sectoral rotation, with investors buying precious metals and selling base metals on expectations of a pronounced dip in US markets and a concurrent depreciation in the value of the dollar.----------

It's a BIG world of current and potential gold-buyers out there. A seizure in the relatively thin physical market can originate from any corner. Don't be caught out through undue delay and inactivity.

R.

sourdough

(02/09/2002; 16:23:16 MDT - Msg ID: 69694)

sector (02/09/02; 14:24:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 69689)

Does everyone here think it is an "accident" that the Japanese consumer/saver/investor/ is buying gold?
What if it is engineered by the Japanese government along with the help of the other major governments?
Is it a tool to bring about the domestic led recovery of the Japanese economy?
Now I ask again, what is the best investment a jp morgan or a goldman could make (related to Japan)and what potential % gain could be reaped on that investment, if the economy rebounds from internal demand?
Is there anything that these big banks want from Japan?
What access to the Japanese consumer do other governments want and what would it be worth to them?
Perhaps there is no other way to save and turn around Japan than to provide capital gains to the Japanese people.
Talk about stimulus package, you get them herded into gold, then let it go to $1000. you got stimulus. If it works consumer demand picks up, the economy rebounds, the yen strenghtens, the dollar adjusts, it has to eventually anyway. The "CORRECT" spin on a Japanese recovery could help all other economies. Especially if American companies have "dealed"(bought with gold),access to Japanese consumers.
We may be starting to feel lucky, but I`m not so sure it is "just luck".

goldenboy

(02/09/2002; 17:10:18 MDT - Msg ID: 69695)

Poem Contest

Roses are red
Violets are blue
I`ve got my gold
How about you?

Points to be awarded for brevity and clarity of message!

goldenboy

(02/09/2002; 17:20:46 MDT - Msg ID: 69696)

About Real Estate and Gold

There has been a lot of dumping on real estate as an investment on bear sites and so on; but the realty market deserves a little more detail on the analysis end.
Firstly, gold tends to trend upwards faster when real estate has already made the most of its upward move, reflecting the fact that most people spend more money on real estate than gold. After all, it is an inflationary-beneficial asset that has a utility value.....right Christian?
Secondly, it is a very diverse market.....from survival/woodlot/farm enterprises having inherent survival value of the first order to speculative suburban office/warehouse/manufacturing/retail facilities. Therefore it is wrong to generalise.
Obviously the stuff at the margins; ie- office, warehouse, suburbn commercial and even high end residential has a large risk profile......however income residential in safe communities within walking distance to services has a totally different profile and will function as a safe convertible bond in the environment we are in.

goldenboy

(02/09/2002; 17:29:35 MDT - Msg ID: 69697)

11ee8aa9c

Exchange Rates & GoldRecent postings have commented on the slamming of the rand being a very convenient thing for the cabal, and no doubt that is something that has gone through our minds lately what with the fact that the Aussie, Canadian, SA, South American currencies have all been slammed. The ones that stand out in my mind are the rand and Aussie $ as they have been the home of the most convenient hedge.
All this being said, how much lower can they go, what other rabbits are left in the sleeve of the cabal. Fewer, I will wager; but I nonetheless worry about the one stopper I would have were I them. The good news is that there cannot be much ammunition left to them with the current interest rate environment.

Pizz

(02/09/2002; 18:43:27 MDT - Msg ID: 69698)

Leigh

Just got thru listening to one of my favorite motivational, mood classics, Sammy Davis Jr's rendition of "I've Gotta Be Me".

I pictured an animated kilo of gold singing the song. If 90% of that song doesn't fit . . . .

If you can scrounge a download of the song, close your eyes and picture it. Wish I had the ability to cartoon it and post it . . . oh well, back to drinking, er eating my dinner.

Have a good evening - and thanks.

Pizz

Cavan Man

(02/09/2002; 19:19:13 MDT - Msg ID: 69699)

@Pizz

SDjr.how 'bout his classic "fool I am"? that title is wrong I'm sure. Goes like this...."Why can't I fall in love; like any other man 'cause maybe then you'll know the kind of fool I am". I always thought that was his signature song.

Max Rabbitz

(02/09/2002; 20:20:00 MDT - Msg ID: 69700)

Survival

I know I'm a little late with this as the survival discussion was yesterday and we're now doing poems .....nevertheless.....

Safe water is perhaps most essential for survival and I spent a little time last fall researching purification. Since it's hard to store enough water I bought a filter. There are several very good models out there (see camping suppliers). Make sure the filter is absolute, i.e., the pore size is not measured as an average but is "absolute", at least 0.3 microns, 0.2 is better. This will filter out most all bacteria but not viruses. Most viruses are attached to bacteria and are thus filtered out but to be safe treat water first with iodine and then filter. Finally, some of the more expensive filters are impregnated with SILVER as a bactericide. I'm not sure if this is needed if the pore size is "absolute."

Zenidea

(02/09/2002; 20:46:41 MDT - Msg ID: 69701)

Another wet nurse

http://www.australiangold.org.au/index.cfmKeep the mouth powder dry . :) .

Zenidea

(02/09/2002; 21:25:51 MDT - Msg ID: 69702)

Trail guide ! Aussie perspective.

Sir Douglas,
I knowingly know that the best way to learn is to be available. i.e "those that know not and know they know not" : Teach. I mean the more one knows , the obviousness is , of what one dosnt know and then we have our listeners whom generaly seem: "Those that know and know not they know" , i.e the artist , the spontainious minds that situate this forum , albeit right or wrong that work on intuition, and then we have myself (Sir Ray) "Those that know and know they know; The follower that helps keep it all alive and then we have those that know and think they know whom are those that knowingly know that they will not be rejected if we work togeather.
Hence my friend here is an invitation to you to come to Australia first and enjoy a quiet relaxed warm trail under the stars. Last one to spot a satalite is a rotten egg
Smile. HUGS !!!

mikal

(02/09/2002; 21:29:16 MDT - Msg ID: 69703)

GATA's latest update spotlights Washington Times affiliate, Insight Magazine

http://insightmag.com/main.cfm/include/detail/storyid/180093html
��Issue Date:�February 25, 2002
All That Glitters Is Not Gold
From the March, 4 issue; posted Feb. 8, 2002
By Kelly Patricia O'Meara
... But there are many in the world of high finance who aren't buying the official line and warn that Enron is just the first to fall from a shaky house of cards.
Many analysts believe that this problem is nowhere more evident than at the nation's bullion banks, and particularly at the House of Morgan (J.P. Morgan Chase). One of the world's leading banking institutions and a major international bullion bank, Morgan Chase has received heavy media attention in recent weeks both for its financial relationships with bankrupts Enron and Global Crossing Ltd. as well as the financial collapse of Argentina.
It is no secret that Morgan Chase was one of Enron's biggest lenders, reportedly losing at least $600 million and, perhaps, billions. The banking giant's stock has gone south, and management has been called before its shareholders to explain substantial investments in highly speculative derivatives � hidden speculation of the sort that overheated and blew up on Enron.
In recent years Morgan Chase has invested much of its capital in derivatives, including gold and interest-rate derivatives, about which very little information is provided to shareholders. Among the information that has been made available, however, is that as of June 2000, J.P. Morgan reported nearly $30 billion of gold derivatives and Chase Manhattan Corp., although merged with J.P. Morgan, still reported separately in 2000 that it had $35 billion in gold derivatives. Analysts agree that the derivatives have exploded at this bank and that both positions are enormous relative to the capital of the bank and the size of the gold market.
It gets worse. J.P. Morgan's total derivatives position reportedly now stands at nearly $29 trillion, or three times the U.S. annual gross domestic product.
Wall Street insiders speculate that if the gold market were to rise Morgan Chase could be in serious financial difficulty because of its "short positions" in gold... Howe's claim contends that the price of gold has been manipulated since 1994 "by conspiracy of public officials and major bullion banks, with three objectives: (1) to prevent rising gold prices from sounding a warning on U.S. inflation; (2) to prevent rising gold prices from signaling weakness in the international value of the dollar; and (3) to prevent banks and others who have funded themselves through borrowing gold at low interest rates and are thus short physical gold from suffering huge losses as a consequence of rising gold prices."
...Robert Maltbie, chief executive officer of www.stockjock.com and an independent analyst, long has followed Morgan Chase. He tells Insight that "there are a lot of things going on in these companies, but we don't know for sure because much of what they're doing is off the balance sheet. The market is scared and crying out to see what's under the hood. Like Enron, much of what the banks are doing is off the balance sheet, and it's a time bomb ticking as we speak."
Just what would happen if a bank the size of Morgan Chase were unable to meet its financial obligations? "It's tough to go there," Maltbie says, "because it could shake the financial markets to the core."

mikal

(02/09/2002; 21:39:11 MDT - Msg ID: 69704)

Correct URL

http://insightmag.com/main.cfm/include/detail/storyid/180093.htmlURL

Bulldog

(02/09/2002; 21:55:44 MDT - Msg ID: 69705)

(No Subject)

Max Rabbitz - survivalGo to the Gold Eagle site and look at the recent reference to this and Y2k. Rather poorly submission by a relatively good thinker. IMHO, y2k was a wake-up call. Cost me a lot of money, but it required me to make some investments. I have every thing recommended for y2k, but I will never use that British water purifer whose name I forget, but it started with a B and was reputed to be used by missionaries for 100 years. Ceramic filter and all that. My cabin could be located next to the Brita commercial of a fresh mountain stream. I had the water tested and the local health care centre had never tested such pure water.

It's a fabulous feeling to be prepared for whatever comes, but none of us want the extreme scenario. I think I should stop the gold accumulation and look at silver. If times do get tough, silver will be readily accepted for what you need to buy, who can make change for a 1 oz gold coin? Frankly, I don't think things get to the point where I have to sell
my physical, but if that comes to pass, I figure when the derivatives game is done and the likes of JPMC bite the dust
and perhaps a judge in Boston decides that GATA does have a prima facie case, who knows where gold goes? $10,000 an oz.
may be a low number.

A lot of the folks on this site prepared for y2k. We are not embarassed, we took a stand. People can dump all over the Gary North's etc., but they have peace of mind. I think that it introduced us to the physical accumulation of gold.

It also allowed us to express our views of the cosmos.

We goldbugs missed out on the stock market gains of the dot.coms and general market. I hazard a guess that those that followed the recommendations of Doug Casey, Davidson and Rees Mogg at Strategic Investment lost a lot of money in the gold market. My stocks doubled this week and I need them to do so a lot more. I have BGO at $10.

I really do not want to buy other than physical, but I don't think anyone can lose with NEM. I figure an unhedged miner
like this might quadruple this year.

The exercise now is to get rid of your crap paper and accumulate as much physical as possible. On the other hand,
you might make a fortune on the short side of equity stocks.
Whatever happens, I believe that the consensus of this forum will stand you in good stead. Peace be with you.

Gandalf the White

(02/09/2002; 22:30:01 MDT - Msg ID: 69706)

ATTN: goldenboy

The Hobbits hope that you did not accidently post your Password !!! IF you did, please ask Jeff for a new one as someone is known to use passwords to cause problems. The Wiz is crossing his fingers and casting a good spell for you. Hope that I misreading my crystal ball and totally incorrect !!
<;-)

Waverider

(02/09/2002; 22:40:48 MDT - Msg ID: 69707)

Venezuela Bolivar Slips After Calls for Chavez Ouster

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?touch=1&btitle=Top%20News&T=sa_content.ht&s=APGRZNBZ7VmVuZXp1Snippit:
"Venezuela's currency lost more than 1 percent against the dollar for a second day after a military officer called on President Hugo Chavez to resign following a night of protests led by an air force colonel.

The central bank, which raised short-term interest rates this week to 50 percent to help prop up the currency, sold as much as $200 million from reserves to stem the bolivar's slide, traders said. The currency weakened 10 bolivars to 792.5 per dollar after slipping 1.3 percent yesterday.

Central bank reserves, including an oil income fund, fell 17 percent since late November to $16.6 billion as Venezuelans protested Chavez's moves toward seizing private property and undermining democracy. National Guard Capitan Pedro Flores called for the president to step down at a rally last night, and Air Force Colonel Pedro Soto said 75 percent of Venezuela's military want the president to resign."

Waverider: It looks like Venezuela is the next South American crisis waiting to happen. I wonder if they'll make it through next week without a military coup d'etat.

Black Blade

(02/09/2002; 22:45:38 MDT - Msg ID: 69708)

Gold's floodgates open, finally Above $300, metal's rally to spark mania, some say

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?print=1&guid={A1FB1273-CB16-4A00-AE52-98BDEAE5B8F8}&siteid=mktw
Snippit:

"The meltdown of a G-7 economy is rare," says Carl Weinberg, chief economist of High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, N.Y. "Things like the big oil shocks of the '70s caused a flight to gold, and that was an unprecedented event."

This time, say gold's optimists, who remember fondly when gold was last at $400 (January 1996) and $800 (January 1980), it really is different. "If you look at the popular press, every article you read on gold is that gold is no longer money, that it is finished," says Lassonde, a co-founder of Canada's Franco-Nevada Mining (CA:FN), one of two gold producers that will merge to form the world's largest gold miner, Newmont, later this month.

"In the past two months, I have started to see more positive articles on gold," Lassonde says from his Toronto office. "As gold breaks the $300 barrier and goes to $325, that will drive the bull market in gold."

Black Blade: There are a number of currency crises and banking fiascos along with cratering equities markets that bode well for Gold. We see a depreciating Yen in Japan with an insolvent banking system and a failing Government Postal Savings system. We also have seen the Argentine people riot against their government as the Argentine Peso devalues on its way to becoming worthless. Now a new fiasco is brewing in Venezuela. I have discussed this very subject a couple of weeks ago. The Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez is a Marxist who idolizes none other than Cuban dictator Fidel Castro. His latest threats are to nationalize all petroleum interests and the nations banking system. These threats have infuriated the Venezuelan business community and lead to street protests. The Venezuelan currency, the devaluing Bolivar is on the fast track to becoming worthless, as is the Argentine Peso. This oil rich nation is the leading OPEC exporter of oil to the US. They have the ability to dictate terms of pricing oil to the US by using oil supply as a weapon. The currency problems of Argentina and Venezuela are just the tip of the iceberg. There are serious cracks in the dam as the Brazilian Real appears to be ready for some serious devaluation as well. Thought that the Asian Contagion was bad? This is just the second act perhaps, but just as serious if not worse as these currency crises are certain to spill across the S. American and Central American borders (and even into Mexico). The question is how will this impact Gold? Will Latin Americans rush to Gold as a safe haven as their respective currencies crash? What about the impact of higher petroleum prices have on Gold if Venezuela restricts supply to raise prices? Life is about to take another "interesting" turn. One thing is certain, these days Gold looks like a more certain safe haven in an uncertain world.

Black Blade

(02/09/2002; 23:03:37 MDT - Msg ID: 69709)

Waverider - Venezuela is Just One Currency Crisis

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez was once arrested and tried for treason in a failed coup attempt when he was a minor military officer several years ago. The coup failed and he was captured. He was sentenced to prison and after a few years of incarceration he ran for the presidency and won. Strangely he is an avowed Marxist and idolizes Fidel Castro.
Worse than a Venezuelan currency crises is the one developing in Brazil. The Brazilian economy is key to South America. If Brazil falls then it is a "domino effect" that will likely cascade throughout Latin America. The Global Economy is fragile enough that a Latin American currency crisis could trigger a course of events that take down the Global Economy in short order. Argentina is a prime example of what could happen. Just magnify the Argentine crisis a hundred-fold. You would definitely what some Gold portfoio insurance.

It is no wonder then that the wealthy Argentines and Japanese are rushing to Gold. Word is that Europeans are also making more Gold purchases there days. What about Americans? Well, what can one say about Grasshoppers. The American masses are usually late to the party in any case. I suspect that most Americans will be caught flat-footed when their investments and retirement accounts vaporize (just like many Enron employees). Cheers!

Black Blade

auenboy

(02/09/2002; 23:07:39 MDT - Msg ID: 69710)

Gold shares with Income

Maybe old news but I recently found out that Agnico Eagle issued 125,000,000 Convertible Debentures paying 4.50% yearly and conv. into common shares @ $14.00. for 10 years. Seems a good alternative for gold investoers that need both income and growth.

Waverider

(02/09/2002; 23:25:19 MDT - Msg ID: 69711)

India: Gold as an investment option

http://www.hinduonnet.com/stories/2002021000201100.htmSnippit:
"Gold now is living up to its reputation of being among the most liquid of all assets. Amidst shaky equity markets and weak currencies, gold has come to the forefront as an investment option. This was evident last week when gold prices zoomed on Friday last and touched Rs. 4,960 per 10 gm and 10 tola bars were quoted at five year high of Rs. 58,400."

Waverider: ~Black Blade - thanks for outlining the larger picture in SA. Canadians too - lots of grasshoppers up here - I talk to my friends/colleagues and the topic just doesn't grab them - I find it amazing! This article is interesting in that Gold is getting some mainstream media attention in India. Cheers!

Black Blade

(02/09/2002; 23:45:51 MDT - Msg ID: 69712)

Treasury blows �350m in great gold sale gamble

http://www.observer.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,647646,00.html
Snippit:

The surge in the price of gold could leave the Treasury's two year sell-off of its reserves, which ends next month, nursing a loss of hundreds of millions of pounds. The sell-off caused a storm of public protest when it began in 1999.

At the current gold price of $305 an ounce, the value of the 375 tonnes of gold auctioned by the Bank of England on behalf of the Treasury over the past two years is $3.7 billion (�2.6bn).

According to Bank of England records and a recent House of Commons Public Accounts Committee report, the Treasury received just �2.25bn in 16 auctions between July 1999 and last month. The total Treasury 'loss' compared with the situation if the Treasury had kept the gold would be around �350 million at current levels.

Black Blade: I asked the very same question a couple of days ago. As I suspected the Brits are a bit ticked off with Captain Tony and Eddie George for giving away their birthright.

Waverider

(02/09/2002; 23:52:45 MDT - Msg ID: 69713)

Black Blade

http://cnnenespanol.com/I came across this site - CNN en espanol - thought it may interest you if you're not already aware of it. Cheers,
Waverider

Black Blade

(02/10/2002; 00:04:53 MDT - Msg ID: 69714)

Getting Debt-Free in an Economic Slump

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020209/business_column_assets_dc_1.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Layoffs and the stock market plunge have forced Americans to take a cold, hard look at their financial assets and cut back on spending.

Yet after a brief period of restraint following the Sept. 11 attacks, consumer debt went up again -- especially over the holidays -- leaving many households more in the red than ever. ``The unfortunate thing is that these individuals were not aware of how much debt they had,'' said Kevin Williams, a counselor at the Consumer Credit Counseling Service (CCCS) in Forth Worth, Texas. ``It doesn't become an issue when they can make the minimum payment, and creditors are not calling them. But once their income is stopped or reduced, they get a shock.''

The abrupt economic downturn after Sept. 11 caught a lot of people off guard, and sent them in droves to credit counselors as they got laid off or feared a job loss.

Black Blade: Get out of debt, get a food and basic goods storage program started, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, get enough cash on hand for several months expenses, and get defensive with investments. Paying off debt is an instant return by extinguishing interest payments. Also one can sleep much better at night knowing that they are prepared for the uncertainties in life. There are those (Grasshoppers) who will laugh and scoff at those who are prepared, when calamity hits they are also the first to whimper and snivel about how unfair life is. I have no sympathy for them. People must learn to take personal responsibility - while some are intelligent enough to learn vicariously, others must learn the hard way. Let's call it "Natural Selection".

Black Blade

(02/10/2002; 00:46:03 MDT - Msg ID: 69715)

Argentines in new protest of 'gov't of thieves'

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020209/n09264854_1.html
Snippit:

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina, Feb 9 (Reuters) - Thousands of Argentines took to the streets in the early morning hours on Saturday, banging pots and pans in the latest peaceful protest against a ``government of thieves'' unable to end a chaotic recession in its fourth year.

Members of the decaying middle class, frustrated by the long slump that has seen their bank deposits frozen and slashed in value and even resulted in insulin shortages, converged on the plaza in front of the presidential palace. ``We've been raped by politicians, banks and judges,'' read one giant homemade banner held up by protesters as they streamed down Buenos Aires' elegant avenues after midnight.

Many economists say Argentina's problems result in part from decades of government corruption and overspending. In January new President Eduardo Duhalde yielded to months of crisis and defaulted on part of the $141 billion public debt and devalued the peso currency.

With unemployment estimated over 20 percent, entire industries closing their doors and the international community so far unwilling to offer financial aid, most believe the once-prosperous country of 36 million people will spiral further into chaos this year.

The government has frozen some bank deposits to prevent a disastrous run amid the confidence crisis, which has suffocated consumer spending and enraged savers. ``People are starving. There are 14 million poor, the hospitals are out of supplies, pharmacies are closing and these corrupt politicians we have keep robbing us,'' one protester told local television. ``This thing is near its end.''

The devaluation has led the peso to lose about half its value against the dollar on markets and many Argentines fear it could fall further when a week-long ban on foreign exchange trade ends next Monday. ``This devaluation is going to lead us to disaster,'' said another protester, carrying a small child on his shoulders as many families participated in the march. ``It's just more money that will go toward this government of thieves.''

Black Blade: "Government of thieves" - That is governments exists for. When the US Dollar was devalued after Frankie D. Roosevelt confiscated Gold, this was a government theft of the people just the same as taxes that are imposed without the consent of the people. As described in earlier posts this currency crisis is spreading across South American borders. Venezuela and Brazil are likely to be the next victims of an economic crisis. Of course Colombia, Peru and Ecuador don't appear to be all that health either. "Interesting Times"

Belgian

(02/10/2002; 03:20:19 MDT - Msg ID: 69716)

GOLD Talk.....talk.....talk....

Western Gold-talk has "one" particular characteristic : This talk is for 95% about "paper-gold" ! And many here know what kind of paper...I'm talking (hum) about.
This in very sharp contrast with those (not westerners) who don't talk (publicly) about Gold. These Gold-silents, actually *BUY THE PHYSICAL*, scarsely available !
Be it Arabian oilproducers...Chineze Giants...Indians or Japaneze housewifes...they say nothing about the precious accumulation ! Isn't this remarquable ?

*What* is it that makes it so uncommon to express the possession of Physical Gold ? Why has the Possession of Physical Gold lost its status ? Where all other expressions of wealth are adored and exposed with confidence ?

Yes, Sir Douglas...we/us...western goldbugs ! In full contrast with Arabian - Indian, Gold exposure.

Gold-buggism (paper that is) is making a terrible mistake with promoting the paper-unprecious at the present "crucial" crossroad ! So much effort has been and still is "invested" in finding/providing *evidence* for the obscene Gold-situation. And the in-consequent conclusion of adoring paper-gold is imvho un-responsible and seriously contradictional.

Consequent REAL GOLD ADVOCATES must have LOL !? They expose the "price" of Gold and derivatives, whilst "hiding" the "VALUE" of the essential yellow. The Chineze central bank even couldn't get their Gold-message (+ 100 tonne-official-?) across the western bugs !

Goldbugs (talkers) deliver masses of evidence about the unbelievable/unimaginable explosive situation in wich Gold-Valuation has landed. But ugly-paper must *be* before Precious-Physical to be advized serenely.

I do have a problem with this blatant contradiction. It is the general consensus of POG=600$ target that causes the paper-behavior ! But why all the evidence effort for obtaining that 600$ result ? How irrational.
Once Gold has been set FREE...will it stop at this "ridiculous" valuation (sorry, price) of 600$ !?
Thousands (ten thousands) of tonnes paper-gold-shorts ! And this will only result in a little bambam of 600$ per ounce !? Common fellow goldphiles, wake up !

All paper-talkers are scared to death that Gold might (is) going to be re-valuated at tens of thousands of worthless US dollars. What will happen to this paper-circus must be excluded from any possible projection. The 600$ per ounce vieuwers don't seem to realize how little Gold there is available against the artificial perpetum of confetti production.

The 1971 - 1980 run of x25 POG isn't understood by present paper worshippers (and dollar holders). Many goldbugs tend to agree with a 1929-like crash of the last standing NY stockmarket...but only see an obscene POG of 300$ double to an even absurd valuation of 600$ ! As if they (goldbugs) also stand ready to sell paper-gold...should the price rise beyond their 600$ arbitrary obsession.

Nobody ever asked any mining director what would happen if POG should explode into the thousands ! And with "explode", I mean in a rush with the speed of light. More and more examples (non gold) out there of how fast and mercyless things can evolve are available daily.

Physical Gold in Possession should not be timidly mentioned in gold talks/advise/promotion as for the sake of being complete. I told you to so to have 5%...10% of Physical...

With much respect for all Gold talkers who are serving the "cause" with hard working...I would like to say : There isn't anything more Precious than Physical Gold in Possession ! Spread this word with as much honesty as possible. Thank you.

Grubstaker

(02/10/2002; 03:42:02 MDT - Msg ID: 69717)

Sir Belgian,

Have no fear as there are a few of us here holding much and saying little. I have only been around this forum less than a year. My decisions concerning GOLD possesion were made years ago. In the very early 90's I began to amass, ignoring the paper equities/SM madness. I instinctively knew a "portfolio" was nothing more than digital entries on paper which were subject to ANYTHING. At $375(1990), $325 (1992), $280(1999)then lastly last April I topped it off at $260. It is my belief that those who have not entered at this last hour of the game WON'T. If they do at all (buy physical)it will be part of the mad scramble. As we know by then there won't be any for sale!! Ask any Argentinian.

tedw

(02/10/2002; 05:02:20 MDT - Msg ID: 69718)

test

tedw

(02/10/2002; 05:18:32 MDT - Msg ID: 69719)

Investment demand

If this time the rally is for real it will be because of investment demand, which has been missing in previous rallies and for which reason they failed (IMO).

My mother is, I think, a typical older American investor.
She is scared of the stock market for fear of losing everything she has worked for her whole life. The rate of return on bonds is so low she has stopped buying t-bill when they mature.

Lately, she has taken notice of the price rise in Gold stocks and is considering them. She has fears of investing in stocks in South Africa.Physical gold is less appealing to here because of security concerns and the hassle that goes along with obtaining physical.

When Mom starts buying gold stock it will be the sure sign that Gold has finally come back.

PS: Nobody has told her its only a commodity; her whole life Gold has been......well, Gold.

Knallgold

(02/10/2002; 05:30:10 MDT - Msg ID: 69720)

Gold buying

BB "..Word is that Europeans are also making more Gold purchases these days..."

Yes,yes,bought Goldcoins last Tuesday (from CPM).I just didn't want to wait any longer.Very good feeling of buying before POG breaked the 300...hardly can't wait for their arrival.Thanks Centennial for the great service!

BTW,my friend,knowing I am full in Gold,asked me a week ago if it would be too late to buy into it (shares)...his Dells don't perform well.

Au-some

(02/10/2002; 06:11:55 MDT - Msg ID: 69721)

(No Subject)

There once was a man named Trail Guide
who told us fiat was a lie-
"The paper will burn
and it should be spurned.
So buy GOLD and hang on for the ride!"

Black Blade

(02/10/2002; 07:50:07 MDT - Msg ID: 69722)

Gold Digest - More on JP Morgan Chase and PM Derivatives

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_02/chapman021102.htmlSnippit:

Morgan does have $30 trillion in derivatives. Morgan is the leader of the gold manipulation cartel. They have many gold loans outstanding and they are mega short. It now comes out, as we guessed, that Morgan as reported by the Comptroller of the Currency, as of 9/10/01, held 80% of the gold derivatives the COC reported. It looks like Morgan could have been dumping short gold derivative positions on Enron to lower its exposure and this explains the mega loans Morgan made to Enron as it was going under. This also means Morgan and probably Citigroup are left to defend the gold manipulation position. They don't have that kind of strength left, which means anything can happen.

The key of course is JP Morgan. Their exposure on gold is colossal, but as congress digs into Enron, Morgan will get deeper and deeper into the financial quagmire. Morgan could go bankrupt and that means these gold shorts and derivatives could implode. That would give very serious upside velocity to gold, which would pull silver and platinum with it.

Black Blade: There are rumors that JPMC has engaged in trading in short positions on Gold and Silver derivatives. Didn't they move their Gold and Silver trading activities to a London-based subsidiary before the reporting rules on derivatives were implemented? We have learned that Enron was heavily involved in Silver derivatives and now it comes to light that they may have been involved in large Gold derivative positions as well. There are louder and more urgent concerns over the last few days that JPMC could be close to collapse. "Interesting Times"

nickel62

(02/10/2002; 08:38:01 MDT - Msg ID: 69723)

Chew on these main points for awhile and the truth starts to become more apparent about the manipulation of the money supply of the US and it's ramifications...

THE ULTIMATE ARGUMENT AND THE ULTIMATE TEST

Copyright 2002 J.N. Tlaga

In Amicus Curiae Argument of October 22, 2001 - http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/tlaga102501.html - very truly yours brought to the attention of the US District Court in Boston,

(1) that because of across-the-board collateralization of reversible gold transactions, every single ounce of central banks gold that is now swapped, on loan, or under repurchase agreement is for all practical purposes irreversibly sold in exchange for US Treasury securities, and

(2) that all such irreversible sales of central banks gold in exchange for US Treasury securities were rendered not reportable to the legislators and to the general public by way of extra legal "authority" cooked up at the IMF by the proxy of BIS and later adopted by the ECB, and

(3) that US Treasury does not keep current ownership record of its securities that are sold through the Federal Reserve "Primary Dealers" and Federal Reserve controlled banks.

The purpose of that disclosure was to make the Court realize that unless the Federal Reserve's books and records were produced for inspection in the course of discovery procedure, there was no practical way to ascertain the actual ownership status of central banks gold and the true extent of "gold carry trade" complained of by the plaintiff.

There are two kinds of fiat money in circulation:

(1) Federal Reserve notes, which earn no interest, are used as cash by the general public, and are commonly known as "US dollars", and

(2) US Treasury securities - bills, notes and bonds - commonly known as "US bonds", which earn interest and, unbeknownst to general public, are used as cash in global banking and new-world-order trade.

Transactions paid in "dollars" are subject to reporting, control, and restrictions related to income tax and "money laundering", but transactions paid in "bonds" fly under the income tax radar, and unleashing IRS dogs by the Fed upon such transactions depends entirely on who the parties are. "New-world-order trade", as it applies to the United States, is a shorthand for a predatory system, which, essentially, consists of the following:

(1) Closing down factories in the United States where wages and taxes are high, currency is overvalued, and the cost of environmental protection is high;

(2) Opening the same factories in low wage countries with undervalued currencies and non-existent environmental protection;

(3) Exporting products of so transplanted factories back to the United States to maximize profit due to wage and, especially, rate of exchange differentials, and to apply the "go abroad or go bankrupt" squeeze on the patriotic manufacturers who resist the pressure to move their factories abroad;

(4) Supplying the US populace with excessive consumer credit, progressively offset against real estate equity, whose appraisal is in turn pumped up far beyond its real value, in order to provide market for imported goods at the expense of equity created by prior generations (selling America from under feet of her people).

Following the Amicus Curiae Argument, very truly yours submitted in "Thanksgiving Day Question" a direct inquiry to Dr Ron Paul, Texas Representative in Congress, whether or not was it his intention to seek the office of the President of the United States in the general elections of November 2, 2004, by way of early declared campaign, whose objective would also be to renew House and Senate. http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/tlaga112201.html

And one week later, in a proposal THE ALTERNATIVE FUTURE, a Call for Overnight Revolution was made with declared intention to open national debate on how to transform the present fiat money regime into an honest-money regime without harming the economy. What is unique about this proposal is that the morning after the proposed overnight revolution the money supply remains unchanged, and economy proceeds as usual, while all the Federal Reserve notes and all the Treasury securities have been neatly excised from circulation. The task to abolish the fiat currency without destroying money supply as such has always been pictured as impossible dream, and thereby the strongest argument for maintaining fiat money forever. THE ALTERNATIVE FUTURE puts this false argument to its well deserved rest. http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/tlaga112801.html

And this Call for Overnight Revolution was meant to be not only the ultimate proposal to return to honest money, but also the ultimate argument in "Howe vs BIS" and the ultimate test of our national will to return to honest money.

It came to me as an afterthought, that the argument the defendants in "Howe vs BIS" were most likely relying upon was absent from the record of their case. What if - I could not help not to ask myself - the myth that there was no viable alternative to the fiat money regime was set adrift to reach Judge Lindsay innocuously from many directions in order to leave what professional spin artists call "adequate residue". This residue could in time graduate to the reasoning that even though the fiat money regime and its gold price manipulation scheme was nothing short of criminal, its only alternative was worldwide chaos. Therefore, decision for the plaintiff, upholding the rule of law, would in effect amount to upholding anarchy, while decision for the defendants, although repugnant to the existing law, would in effect amount to upholding the rule of law, no matter how limping this rule might appear to be as a result thereof.

This kind of sophistry, ending in the open embrace of irrational conclusion, would not be unheard of to the lawyers among us, but it could be prevented by publishing an argument amply demonstrating that there was a viable alternative to the fiat money regime. Once published, such an argument could not be unpublished, meaning, no spin artist could vacuum it from people's minds and from public domain. We may never know whether this ultimate argument, solely by virtue of its existence, will in the end be helpful in shaping the Court's decision in "Howe vs BIS", but procedurally, it would not be proper nor graceful to seek to file it as an amendment to Amicus Curiae Argument.

When the Order of US District Court for the District of Massachusetts, denying my motion for leave to file Amicus Curiae Argument in "Howe vs BIS", became known to me on November 29, I managed, via postings during 20:00 Hours segment of Gold Forum (www.gold-eagle.com), to prevent premature comments which, I feared, might not fit the proprieties of the court decorum, which in my book also apply outside the courtroom. But I could not preempt private questions, which kept hammering at two points:

(1) How come your brief misspells Dred Scott as "Dread Scott"?
(2) How come your brief "does not cite a single case or statute"?

I knew about "Sanford's Curse". (Because his name was erroneously "corrected" in DRED SCOTT v. JOHN F. A. SANDFORD, the plaintiff's name will be similarly "corrected" until the end of time.) And yet, I found myself involuntarily executing this curse as cast, not unlike the famous Cardinal, who, notwithstanding endless admonitions against such pitfalls, still managed to say in Easter sermon: "Before the cock denies, Peter will crow trice." And just like that famous Cardinal, I will forever wish for that momentary pause before my error was set in stone. The whole amicus argument was drafted, edited and printed between Friday night and Monday morning. Haste makes waste.

How come my brief "does not cite a single case or statute"?

Because in my view there is no case or statute to cite.

The whole point of my argument is that "Howe vs BIS" is a unique case, whose correct adjudication requires discarding and not citing (i.e. upholding) wrongful precedent cases and wrongful statutes. Federal Reserve System and its fiat money regime are as illegitimate as the slavery system used to be. The statutes and cases in its favor are not to be cited and upheld, but summarily scraped.

Under the ancient "stare decisis" doctrine, the Common Law rule requires that court decisions once made should be upheld by posterity. As a result, the body of Common Law grows by squeezing the later cases into the pigeon holes of the earlier cases. Often the interpretations employed to make the later cases fit the precedent cases stretch both the Common Law and common sense.

Then one day a trial court discards a long line of such squeezed-in precedent cases on the theory that they represent impermissible deviation from the prior good law. Such a rejection, if sustained by the appellate courts, overrules the affected line of precedents, and resets the clock back to the prior good law.

If the Supreme Court of the United States would have summarily discarded slavery cases and statutes in its Dred Scott ruling, the history of these United States would have been completely different than it was, because the Civil War would have never taken place. To this day, Southern gentlemen can be heard calling it "the Northern Aggression War". In my view, it was "the Supreme Court's Inadequacy War". When Horatio Nelson sailed into the battle of Trafalgar, his ship signaled to the fleet: "England expects that every man will do his duty." In 1856, Dred Scott signal - "America expects that Supreme Court will do its duty" - fell on blind eyes and deaf ears.

The Supreme Court should have taken the position, that precedent decisions and colonial statutes upholding the status of African slaves as that of a chattel property of their owners were null and void, because they represented impermissible deviation from the earlier precedents and statutes, and, in any case, they were abrogated by the Declaration of Independence, which must be interpreted as universal in scope. There may not be any limitation on freedom or any exclusion from freedom. Freedom is like love; either it exists and then it's absolute, or it's not absolute and then does not exist at all.

Instead, the Supreme Court invalidated the Missouri Compromise and ruled that it was legal under US Constitution to extend slavery to all free states and territories, essentially, because to rule otherwise would deprive slave owners of their lawful property whenever they would choose to travel to a free state. Abraham Lincoln, who believed the Declaration of Independence was valid universally, characterized this reasoning and the legal reality it heralded, as follows:

... if any one man choose to enslave another,
no third man shall be allowed to object.

"Howe vs BIS" is a Dred Scott case of our time. It challenges the fiat money system, which, next to slavery, is the second cancer on American democracy. And the US District Court in Boston does not have to overrule any wrongful statute or precedent case upholding it. All that is needed to do away with this cancer is to deny the defendants motions to dismiss and let the case proceed into its pretrial stage.

When the discovery procedure will begin, and Reginald Howe will serve a Notice to Produce the Federal Reserve's registry of US Treasury securities transactions, this will be the beginning of the end of the Federal Reserve System. For the first time in history, everyone will know who is paying to whom for what and why in the underground currency of US Treasury securities.

Only a small part of US Treasury securities is sold directly to the public and registered at the US Treasury. The bulk of these offerings is bought by the Fed itself and the Fed-anointed "Primary Dealers" who register all subsequent transactions with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. This record of US Treasury securities transactions is needed to guard against unlicensed counterfeiting (in contrast to the licensed counterfeiting which produces US Treasury securities in the first place).

In the old days, when US Treasury securities were issued in printed form, mafia enterprises printed their own "US Treasury securities" to be used abroad as collaterals for business loans. In due course, the loans would be repaid, "collaterals" would be returned, and in theory US Treasury should never have any reason to suspect additional securities were in circulation because they would never be tendered in for redemption, they would only be used as collaterals. But reality is always different than theory. When Franklin National Bank collapsed as a result of heavy losses in foreign exchange operations, the paper trails of the parties holding other end of FNB transactions led to bogus US Treasury securities.

US Treasury securities are issued in electronic form nowadays. When J.P. Morgan offers US Treasury securities to some central bank as collateral for a gold loan, how does the bank know that such electronic securities are genuine and were not made up by J.P. Morgan's subsidiary, who is one of the "Primary Dealers"? The bank knows securities are genuine because Federal Reserve Bank of New York says so.

Obtaining this track record of US Treasury securities changing hands all over the world, will supply the track record of what is really happening in "global economy". A record of transfers of Federal Reserve notes, such as that of Clearing House Interbank Payment System (CHIPS), does not supply this essential information.

When J.P. Morgan borrows gold from Bundesbank and wires collateral of US Treasury securities, the transaction is recorded in Federal Reserve Bank of New York but is absent in CHIPS record.

We have every right to expect that the records of gold borrowings from US Treasury will be utterly entertaining. E.g., Goldman Sachs borrows gold from former employee, Robert Rubin, in his capacity of the Secretary of the Treasury of the United States, and wires him a collateral of US Treasury securities. Rubin puts these securities in "deep storage" to be released to Goldman Sachs when Goldman Sachs returns the borrowed gold. But instead of returning the borrowed gold, Goldman Sachs wires another load of US Treasury securities as collateral for another gold loan. In the end, during Mr Rubin's tenure as Secretary of the Treasury, Goldman Sachs and other gold bullion dealers borrowed much more gold than could be produced or reacquired on gold market within reasonable time. As a result, when Mr Rubin resigned as Secretary of the Treasury, he left behind what con men call... "a situation". Treasury may not call in the gold loans, because this would expose the fact that they are not repayable, which would force canceling collaterals and official disclosure of the loss of gold to Congress. (Unofficially the whole Congress knows about it, which is yet another reason to begin replacing it in the incoming elections.) In order to maintain a false pretense that national gold bullion reserves are intact, Secretary of the Treasury and the President himself not only deny the loss, but continue to give away the remaining gold reserves which could still be saved. When ultimately confronted about it, they will inevitably claim they had no choice, because their only alternative would be the worldwide economic collapse. (And this, of course, is the same kind of fallacy, as that the abolishing of fiat money would result in destruction of money supply and return to barter economy.)

This whole story, and much more besides, can be deducted from US Treasury securities registry at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The shredding of transcripts of the proceedings of the Fed's Open Market Committee, that is generating so much of hullabaloo these days, is a red herring device by which the establishment planners hope to highjack Ron Paul's mantle for someone like Ralph Nader or Harry Browne, whose job will then be to steer the national opposition into a ditch. From the day one, those FOMC transcripts were introduced as a disinformation instrument. (Intelligence agents routinely maintain diaries in which they lie to themselves in order to mislead counterintelligence and to condition their own minds.)

Again, US Treasury securities are used as cash by global enterprises, and this insulates the affected transactions from any inquiry of tax authorities, such as Internal Revenue Service. Only the transactions involving Federal Reserve notes, i.e., paper dollars, are reported to the IRS. The records of transactions paid for with US Treasury securities are kept only at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and at the entities domiciled in the places like Bermuda or Cayman Islands.

And this is the primary reason for all the anxiety "Howe vs BIS" generates among the powers that be.

The ultimate test of our national will to return to honest money swings on the very same pivot as the ultimate argument in "Howe vs BIS".

The myth that fiat money could not be abolished without destroying the money supply itself operated as a giant uniform excuse for everyone. As long as that myth stood unchallenged, every Regular Joe and Plain Jane could say: I am very much for honest money, but, unhappily, it is too late for it now. Destruction of the money supply would cause more problems than honest money would solve. The time to resist fiat money was before Christmas 1913. Now we are stuck with it.

But when an orderly argument rejects this fallacy, Joe's and Jane's excuse for inaction is lost. Because the return to honest money can be executed by a willing President and Congress without coming anywhere near the calamities advertised by the fiat money racket, every Regular Joe and Plain Jane now faces the question: Why am I doing nothing to elect honest money President and honest money Congress?

What is it that keeps me in my mummified state of inaction?

This simple question will in time compel millions of Joes and Janes to stand up and be counted when Ron Paul or someone of his stature will accept the invitation to lead us back to the promised land.

EURO AND GOLD PRICE MANIPULATION, published in December 2000, http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_00/tlaga121100.html contains the following challenge:

All Nobel laureates in economics now living, including specifically Professor Robert Mundell, are hereby challenged to come up with a rational argument against this presentation. Nothing would please me more than to be proven wrong. But if the best of the best will not come forward and prove that I am wrong, then something will have to be done about it. And that something can only be the return to honest money...

February 9, 2002

tedw

(02/10/2002; 10:20:09 MDT - Msg ID: 69724)

Gold and the Bible

On these foggy Sunday morning in Oregon, let me raise the question of Gold, The Bible, and scriptural prophecy. Sometime back I was informed by an acquaintance that their is Bible prophecy in the Book of Revelation that at some time during the last days Gold will become worthless. Does anyone out there know the location of this prophecy?

Secondly, although there is much speculation and accusation of conspiracy and price fixing in the Gold world, and even names are named. But who is behind the conspirators, if the accusations be true? Something good, or something bad?

If indeed there is a conspiracy of something bad in the Gold world, could it be rightly said we are dealing with a
................ Satanic Conspiracy. There, I said it. And what are its ends, its designs? Is this part of a larger conspiracy for a One Word Government, or a New World Order?

Just asking.

sourdough

(02/10/2002; 10:42:39 MDT - Msg ID: 69725)

stratfor subject headline

G-7 May Settle for Japanese Quarantine Feb 08
"G-7 leaders face a dilemma: Bankrupt the world trying to save an unsalvagable Japan or isolate it and let it sink."
(How would you like to be Japanese and read that)

Gimli_

(02/10/2002; 10:44:04 MDT - Msg ID: 69726)

Gold and the Bible: Gold cast in the street at the end of the age

I might first note that we don't know exactly when the "Day of God's Wrath" will begin, and before that time there will be great economic chaos which could bode very well for precious metals. Here goes the end-time verses though:

Ezek 7:19-21 They shall cast their silver in the streets, and their gold shall be removed: their silver and their gold shall not be able to deliver them in the day of the wrath of the LORD: they shall not satisfy their souls, neither fill their bowels: because it is the stumblingblock of their iniquity. As for the beauty of his ornament, he set it in majesty: but they made the images of their abominations and of their detestable things therein: therefore have I set it far from them. And I will give it into the hands of the strangers for a prey, and to the wicked of the earth for a spoil; and they shall pollute it.

Prov 11:4 Riches profit not in the day of wrath: but righteousness delivereth from death.

Isa 2:20-21 In that day a man shall cast his idols of silver, and his idols of gold, which they made each one for himself to worship, to the moles and to the bats; To go into the clefts of the rocks, and into the tops of the ragged rocks, for fear of the LORD, and for the glory of his majesty, when he ariseth to shake terribly the earth.

Zeph 1:18 Neither their silver nor their gold shall be able to deliver them in the day of the LORD's wrath; but the whole land shall be devoured by the fire of his jealousy: for he shall make even a speedy riddance of all them that dwell in the land.

Belgian

(02/10/2002; 11:08:52 MDT - Msg ID: 69727)

@ Nickel62 ** J.N. Tlaga

Indeed Sir, This man, Tlaga, goes to the very hart of the matter. An outstanding essay on/with profound fundamentals !
Goldtrail Quality !
Thanks Nickel62 and regards.

nickel62

(02/10/2002; 11:29:36 MDT - Msg ID: 69728)

Thank you Belgian for your kind words..

I agree, the essay is a real eye opener. It is from a posting at the Le Metropole Cafe board, that I wanted to make sure the readers here had access to. Best wishes to you and your family.

sector

(02/10/2002; 11:37:46 MDT - Msg ID: 69729)

@Black Blade...JPM's Derivatives [As well as the other Leading banks]...

http://www.occ.treas.gov/deriv/deriv.htm...can be viewed at the above link. [.pdf Table 8 for IRDs table 9 for gold].

The derivatives chanegs can be calculated by examining the previous reports also at the above link.

Belgian

(02/10/2002; 12:07:09 MDT - Msg ID: 69730)

@ TEDW

One world government or new world order have been, are, and will always be a human goal. This is nothing "new" at all !
But has *Gold* something to do with this manmade old strive
for supremacy ? Not per s� !
But whatever new/old world order...Gold's extreme importance will always pop up in one way or another. Gold is like water and oxygen. Both becoming extremely important (lifesaving) under certain crucial circumstances. And than automatically we are interrogating ourself. How important is Gold today and what will be its importance tomorrow ?
More practical...Is Gold very undervalued today and does it make a chance to change significantly ?
When I'm having a close look at this world as it is...I'm convinced we are getting very close to call for Gold's ultimate help ! Sir J.N. Tlaga does seem to think likely with much conviction. A very strong call and expression for Gold as sublimation and solution of the latent/hidden massive chaos the proliferates.

There MUST be forces who are accumulating as much Physical as possible with the help of abysmal pricing. These forces must have created this situation intentionally. Personally, Im not interested in the precise motivation(s) of these "forces". As a modest individual I'm only concerned about my freedom and independance and don't aim for power.
I found a very loyal and trustworthy friend in the Yellow Precious Physical. And I'm definitely not alone (smile to Grubstaker). Nice end of week to all.

Cavan Man

(02/10/2002; 14:01:38 MDT - Msg ID: 69732)

@Gimli

Human affairs are fainter than a shadow; more deceitful than a dream. Youth fades more quickly than the flow of spring; our beauty wates with age or sickness. Riches are uncertain; glory is fickle. The pursuit of arts and sciences is bounded by this present life; the charm of eloquence, which all covet, reaches but the ear: whereas the practice of virtue is a precious possession for its owner, a delightful spectacle for all who witness it. Make this your study; so will you be worthy of the good things promised by the Lord.

Basil The Great, Letter 278

CM comment: There is absolutely nothing to worry about dear friend.

TownCrier

(02/10/2002; 14:23:03 MDT - Msg ID: 69733)

Conclusion: Yen and dollar to go down TOGETHER

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020210/n10110599_1.html-------NEW YORK, Feb 10 (Reuters) - World financial leaders meeting in Ottawa over the weekend gave foreign exchange markets very little to chew on, indicating merely that they did not want to see volatile markets, analysts said on Sunday.

..."It gets back to the point that there's a very tenuous position in terms of dollar/yen in particular, and that volatility in either direction is not desirable right now," (Andrew Delano, foreign exchange analyst).----------

The Japanese are already buying gold, while many Americans have yet to stir from their slumber. This is your wake-up call.

R.

R Powell

(02/10/2002; 14:28:37 MDT - Msg ID: 69734)

Magazine article

http://insightmag.com/main.cfm/include/detail/storyid/180093.html I found this next door. Is anyone familiar with this magazine? It used to be that I couldn't find much at all about precious metals in mainstream newspapers or magazines. Now I can't find the time to read them all.
I thought Adam Hamilton's weekly offering was outstanding this week.
As Michael says, We're one Enron away. I'll be singing, I'm one Enron over the line, sweet Jesus, one Enron over the line. That one last toke might be JPM, no?
Happy Weekend
Rich

R Powell

(02/10/2002; 14:56:52 MDT - Msg ID: 69735)

Throwing gold into the streets

Using the name of the Lord, Allah, Jesus, Mohammed or God by whatever name, has man justified slaughtering his fellow man, woman and children since the beginnings of recorded history to the present day. Organized religion has undoubtedly caused more grief, despair, suffering and death on this earth than all other causes together.
"Imagine no religion, it's easy if you try,
No hell below us, above us only sky"
--John Lennon--
"If the devil does walk among us, what better disguise than that of a cleric? How better to justify insanity than with eternal absolution and a guaranteed ticket to paradise."
I, for one, will not worry about my gold and silver becoming worthless while I live. After that, I'll have no concerns. Before stoning me, I am not Godless, I just have no respect, whatsoever, for what religion has become with man's influence and guidance. In this I include all organised religion.
Respectfully,
Rich

CoBra(too)

(02/10/2002; 14:59:59 MDT - Msg ID: 69736)

Olympic Gold - For Austria

In the men's downhill.

What a race and it was not the seasons champion Steff Eberharter, who won bronze, it was Fritz 'The Cat' Strobl. What a great piste - all contestants finished the race without incident, even the French guy losing a ski at 140kmh just before the finish line - made it acrobatically.

Small ole Austria is still a super power in winter sports, winning 5 medals so far.

I know I'm chauvinistic, as I am in knowing that gold is going to win the end game. ... and I hope that MK will be able to post Bill Buckler's latest global report to the gilded opinion site. It's another eye-opener and a more than realistic state of the nation, no the globe - Report.

Take heart, goldhearts, our time is coming.

cb2

sourdough

(02/10/2002; 15:01:20 MDT - Msg ID: 69737)

The gangs all here

February 11, 2002
LOS ANGELES
Lehman, Prudential face mortgage fraud charges

Consumer suit alleges they aided First Alliance's 'predatory lending'

LEHMAN Brothers Holdings Inc, Prudential Financial Inc, Wachovia Corp's First Union and other lenders face a predatory lending suit brought by consumers who purchased mortgages from now-defunct First Alliance Corp.

The suit accuses the financial service companies of racketeering, violations of truth-in-lending laws and telemarketing fraud for extending First Alliance lines of credit during the mid-1990s. The consumers seek unspecified actual and punitive damages.

First Alliance's 'predatory lending scheme would not have been possible without the involvement, participation, direction and support of Lehman, Prudential and First Union,' according to the 113-page lawsuit, filed on behalf of five First Alliance borrowers.

The complaint seeks class-action status.

First Alliance, formerly one of the nation's largest lenders to people with spotty credit, faces charges by US regulators and others that it deceived home-equity loan borrowers. First Alliance targeted customers with poor credit histories and failed to give them accurate information about the costs of their loans, the Federal Trade Commission charged in a 2000 lawsuit.

Friday's lawsuit, filed in US District Court in Los Angeles, comes a month after a federal judge found that Lehman is potentially liable in the FTC's 'predatory' mortgage lending case involving bankrupt First Alliance.

Judge David O Carter in Santa Ana, California, last month ruled that 'Lehman's credit facility made First Alliance's fraudulent practices possible'. Trial for consolidated lawsuits brought by the FTC, six states and groups representing numerous borrowers is set for April.

Other defendants include Wells Fargo & Co and JP Morgan Chase & Co's Chase Manhattan. The banks were 'unjustly enriched' as trustees for the First Alliance loans, the suit said.

Irvine, California-based First Alliance in 2000 filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. - Bloomberg

sourdough

(02/10/2002; 15:05:33 MDT - Msg ID: 69738)

Japan

February 11, 2002
Japan set to make policy U-turn on economy

Instead of pursuing structural reforms, it'll fight deflation with new measures

By
Anthony Rowley
In Tokyo

THE Japanese government appears set to make a dramatic U-turn in policy - instead of pursuing structural reforms, it will now fight deflation with every means at its disposal.

One of its first moves may be to inject more than 10 trillion yen (S$137 billion) into the nation's banks and set a September deadline for them to cut support to their weakest borrowers.

The Nihon Keizai newspaper reported yesterday that the size of the injection into banks - which it attributed to a government source - would exceed the 7.5 trillion yen they received in 1999 and help them write off bad loans without eroding capital.

Whether or not the plan is unveiled by the end of this week, as Nihon Keizai predicts, what's clear is the change in policy stance.

This was revealed yesterday by Economics Minister Heizo Takenaka shortly after the Group of Seven (G-7) finance ministers' meeting in Ottawa, at which Japan's economy was a source of critical concern.

The main elements of the new strategy, as outlined yesterday by Mr Takenaka in a Fuji Television programme, will include:

a more aggressive approach to use public funds to reduce the mountain of bad debt at Japanese banks;

further easing of Japan's official monetary policy;

measures to boost the Tokyo stock market from its 18-year low; and

provision of strengthened 'safety nets' to cope with corporate failures and rising unemployment.

'There has been a major change of tide in our policy stance in the last two weeks or so,' said Mr Takenaka, adding there is a 'strong will' on the part of Premier Junichiro Koizumi and his cabinet to tackle economic issues head on.

Tokyo financial markets could open in a changed mood today.

Some analysts believe that the government has been alarmed by recent evidence of a financial market collapse, which has seen the prices of Japanese stocks and bonds, as well as the yen, plunging in unison. This has sent the price of gold soaring in Tokyo.

There was no specific reference to Japan's crisis in the unusually terse weekend communique issued after the G-7 meeting in Ottawa, but US Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill said afterwards that Japan must bend all its efforts toward becoming an engine of growth again.

US President George W Bush is also expected to drive this message home forcefully when he arrives in Japan next Sunday on an official visit to East Asia.

Emergency actions outlined so far by the Japanese government have centred upon the early activation - perhaps this week - of the Banks' Shareholdings Purchasing Corp to buy up shares that are being offloaded into the market by Japanese banks.

They also include controls on short-selling of stocks and tax incentives on purchases of Japanese government bonds.

But the major plank of the action plan is expected to be the new injection of public funds into the Japanese banking system.

Taken together, these measures - in particular the injection of new capital into banks and the launch of the new stock buying fund - could have a dramatic impact upon the Tokyo stock market.

The Nikkei Stock Average closed on Friday at 9,686.06 after recovering modestly on hints of new government actions.

Mr Takenaka's weekend comments are likely to give share prices a further boost today, although many investors will probably want to see specific measures announced before getting back into the market.

Mr Takenaka acknowledged that deflation and the problems of mounting bad debt in the banking system are feeding upon each other.

Mr Takenaka also conceded that Mr Koizumi's structural reform policy was making only slow progress against this background of recession and deflation.

'In the past, there had been people who were questioning why falling prices might be such a bad thing. But it is now a top priority for us,' he said.

Japan's Financial Services Agency (FSA) reported on Friday that non-performing loans at 136 Japanese banks totalled around 36.8 trillion yen at the end of September - up 3.1 trillion yen from the end of March 2001.

Bad loans are currently increasing at a faster rate than banks can make provisions for them.

Apart from having to set aside money out of capital to cover such loans, banks are faced with major financial losses on their share portfolios at the end of the current financial year, which will eat further into capital.

CoBra(too)

(02/10/2002; 15:10:18 MDT - Msg ID: 69739)

Yen/US$ - re TC's Message

The message of the relation between the Yen and the US$ could not have been clearer. Whenever the $ was losing some of its strenght vis a vis other (main)currencies - it was the Yen coming to the rescue and saving the day.

Reminds me of the two amputated sprinters running as a team
and never made it to finish line ...

As it seems it needs a "real" athlete to win the gold ...
cb2

Interstate

(02/10/2002; 15:28:15 MDT - Msg ID: 69740)

R Powell msg #69735

What a powerful message !!! And I agree with you 100%
It took a lot of conviction and hutzpah to write that. Later, Interstate

Black Blade

(02/10/2002; 16:15:11 MDT - Msg ID: 69741)

Gold Starts Week Off Higher

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metalsAt the open in Sydney, the POG jumps higher by $2.00 out of the gate. There has been more bullish sentiment over the weekend as the situation in Japan has become desperate. The collapse of the financial system and insolvency of Japanese banks has not only lead Japanese toward Gold purchases, but also an increase in Gold purchases throughout Asia. This should continue well past the April 1st (yep, April Fools Day) deadline before the insolvent banks stop insurance coverage for most types of savings accounts.

However, today is yet another holiday in Japan so no TOCOM trades. BTW, it comes to light that the reason that Gold trades were halted on the TOCOM last week was due to the system being "overloaded" with buy orders. It appears that the Gold Bull will likely carry on in Japan when Japanese markets open on Tuesday. The financial situation in Japan is dire. The Yen is falling flat, the banks are insolvent, and equities are grossly overvalued and barely profitable (if at all). "Interesting Times" - though that's a Chinese curse, I think it still applies.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(02/10/2002; 17:32:30 MDT - Msg ID: 69742)

Gold Reverses

It appears that the POG is now falling. Perhaps as it is easier to push down Gold prices in the Third World especially when the Asian markets (Japan and HK) are closed. Nevertheless, physical demand remains high.

- Black Blade

mikal

(02/10/2002; 17:40:57 MDT - Msg ID: 69743)

Gold story from USAGOLD Live news feed

http://finance.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,3752911%255E1430...The Australian- Gold pops bullion dollar question
by Robin Newby 09feb02
PERHAPS it was the television image of the Japanese housewives buying gold bars from a dealer in Tokyo as a hedge against a falling yen and shaky banks.
Or the announcement by Toronto-based Iamgold that future dividends would be paid in gold rather than Canadian dollars if shareholders wished.
Maybe it was the news sinking in that eight large gold mining operations will close down around the world this year, removing any chance that the industry can ramp up production in the medium term to meet any physical squeeze.
More likely it was all of the above - plus the closing of hedge books and the dark news out of corporate America that has produced a sea change in sentiment among traders and fund managers.
Something is doing it, as gold hit $US305 an ounce in East Asia on Friday...
Most of the gold traders in East Asia will be away from their desks between Monday and Thursday for Chinese New Year. Goode said gold prices would face a test without the support of bullish Asian gold buyers -- because it was that physical demand in Asia which had underpinned much of the rally this week...

mikal

(02/10/2002; 18:19:39 MDT - Msg ID: 69744)

Test

EagleOne

(02/10/2002; 18:25:26 MDT - Msg ID: 69745)

schippi #69731

http://screen.morningstar.com/FundResults.htmlAs far as gold mutual funds go, I see that the Fidelity Select Mutual fund (FSAGX) has done quite well with a 23% gain since January 1. But both the XUA Index with a 25.4% gain and the unhedged HUI Amex Goldbugs index with a 35.2% gain since the first of the year have considerably greater gains.

Morningstar's latest ranking shows FSAGX in the middle of the precious metal pack and several fund returing over 30% for the YTD. The average return for all 38 funds was 23.71%, slightly better than FSAGX.

I find your post that "(FSAGX) has out performed the major gold indexes" a little misleading. Would you care to explain?

EagleOne

(02/10/2002; 18:40:53 MDT - Msg ID: 69746)

Morningstar gold fund results

http://screen.morningstar.com/FundSelector.html?hsection=toolcenterFdSelIf this link brings up the search page, go to the second box from the top and select "precious metals". Then scroll to the bottom of the page and click "show results" Lotsa luck.

Black Blade

(02/10/2002; 19:03:16 MDT - Msg ID: 69747)

Kenneth Lay to Invoke 5th Amendment

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/020210/enron_investigation_6.html
Former Enron Chairman Kenneth Lay to Invoke Fifth Amendment at Senate Hearing Tuesday

Snippit:

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Former Enron chairman Kenneth Lay will assert his right against self-incrimination and refuse to answer questions when he appears before Congress under subpoena this week, his spokeswoman said Sunday night. ``Under the instruction of counsel, Mr. Lay will exercise his Fifth Amendment rights at the Tuesday hearing,'' Kelly Kimberly said in Houston.

Black Blade: Who expected anything different? Even when Jeff Skilling testified he kept saying "I don't recall". We could see another Enron break out soon. Much speculation is that Global Crossing will be next as investigators are finding numerous "irregularities". Oh yeah, Arthur Andersen was prominent at Global Crossing. Also, JP Morgan Chase is a prime candidate for a "blow up" as well. Then there are rumors of more bad news from Tyco and now Qualcomm. It seems almost endless. Definitely get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance - theeconomic outlook is "GRIM".

jinx44

(02/10/2002; 19:38:56 MDT - Msg ID: 69748)

R. Powell

Throwing gold into the streets................

You failed to mention Marx, Pol Pot and Hitler. They have slaughtered more than any religious group ever has. What you rail against is sinful human nature, not religion. If you loved God and read His Word, you would see that He has known us from the beginning. You would find the answers you are looking for.

Chris Powell

(02/10/2002; 20:25:30 MDT - Msg ID: 69749)

Latest from GATA's Bill Murphy

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1002Getting ready for GATA's latest expedition to
Washington, and some comments on the
latest in the gold market:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1002

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Siochain

(02/10/2002; 20:34:12 MDT - Msg ID: 69750)

@ R Powell

I can certainly understand your comments when I look around the world today. Awhile ago I came across a comment which has stayed with me.....Religion is not evil --but much evil has been done in the name of religion!!!

There is, I believe a Higher Power, and that each of us have within its' spark ...that we are on a stumbling...bumbling...painful journey of learning ,,,about what is within...and when we do...."organized" religions will perhaps have outlived itself or changed to better serve our journey.

Ghandi said that if we want the world to change,,,we must first be that change!

Supposedly Einstein was once asked what is the most important challenge facing mankind.

He was said to have paused...stared out in space...then said simply....Our biggest challenge is to decide if the Universe is friendly or not!

To paraphrase his explanation:
If we believe it is unfriendly then it becomes survival of the fittest...a dog eat dog world.

If we believe Universe doesn't care...we often giver up feeling there is no purpose or help...despair can reign

But if we believe the Universe is ultimately friendly, then we can join together to unlock the secrets of Universal Power and grow together yet allowing each to go his/her own unique way

And one of my favorite quotes ..."The real act of discovery lies not in finding new lands...but SEEING with NEW EYES!

Siochain

(02/10/2002; 20:37:24 MDT - Msg ID: 69751)

(No Subject)

Sorry forgot to not -Last quote was from Proust

Interstate

(02/10/2002; 21:07:44 MDT - Msg ID: 69752)

Slochain & R Powell

Max Born (wrote extensively about Einstein) said, in 1924, "The first problem of man was to find his way about on the earth."

Is the world friendly or unfriendly? Depends on your religious beliefs, i.e. read chapters 10 and 11 in Zechariah. Friendly? Unfriendly?

Rich: Gold, silver and other valuables are mentioned in the Bible many times. First time, Genesis 2:11-12. And I have always been puzzled why God (a spirit?) would want silver and gold as he says in Haggai 2:8.

Acquiring gold and silver, for me, is insurance against what may be around the corner. But then I think, if gold goes to $1000 oz., the dollar will devalue and a loaf of bread will cost $8-10 a loaf. So, will I have helped myself? I'll keep acquiring anyway !!!!!!

Later,
Interstate

RobotGuy

(02/10/2002; 21:18:22 MDT - Msg ID: 69753)

Golden religion?

Someone else started it, but I think it's bizarre how many have continued the age old debate of 'Greater Significance' in this forum. It could very quickly turn into an argument that would result in flaming, name calling, and if we were in each other's presence possibly a physical confrontation deepending on how strongly one disagrees with another's opinion. I enjoy this forum. Please don't turn it into a religion battleground.

Black Blade

(02/10/2002; 21:24:19 MDT - Msg ID: 69754)

Very Desperate Gold Short JP Morgan Chase Pleads - Begs Poor Indians - "Sell Your Gold"

http://www.arabnews.com/Article.asp?ID=12749
Snippit:

So what does an investor holding a lot of gold do right now? The writing on the wall is quite loud and clear - sell now, sell all that you have! Infact JP Morgan's Nick Moore has gone on record stating that this was the best time to take profits in gold, look for retracement, buy the dips.

Black Blade: The boyz at JP Morgan Chase must be getting a bit nervous to go to India and beg the populace to sell Gold.

sector

(02/10/2002; 21:29:41 MDT - Msg ID: 69755)

Rally Has Legs

Gold rally likely to last for sometime, say analysts
LONDON: Gold's current rally is likely to last for some time yet as it is based on structural changes within the market, according to analysts.

They said the current gains might appear to have been triggered by a cutback on hedging positions by gold producers and by strong demand in Japan, but these were contributing factors at best.

"We expect that this rally may prove to be less of a temporary blip and more of a trend,�� Howard Patten, analyst at Barclays Capital in London said.

He said the upturn in gold prices was likely to stay intact until the structural events which pushed them through the US$300 per ounce barrier had passed.

Patten said that as the pace of industry consolidation took on an increasingly aggressive tone, prices were set to receive boosts of speculative confidence and renewed levels of buying interest.

The recent battle for control of Normandy Mining Ltd might have ended, but the process continued, he said.

Other economists noted a rise in speculative interest.

Geoffrey Barker, economist at HSBC, said speculative interest had indeed played a part in pushing gold prices higher.

Rhona O�Connell, analyst at the World Gold Council, echoed this view.

"Some of the buying has a consistent pattern to it, which suggests that it is of a professional nature, while retail demand in Asia, especially Japan, remains very strong and if anything is accelerating, in addition there are signs of retail interest developing also in Europe," she said.

The market remained very active with aggressive buying emerging whenever the price dipped, she added.

However, the build-up of large long positions also leaves gold open to bouts of profit-taking, according to some dealers.

But O�Connell believes the market still views gold favourably.

"Although this recent move has been very rapid, which has led some commentators, notably technicians, to comment that the current leg is over-extended, underlying market sentiment remains bullish," she said.

According to Patten at Barclays, the reasons for expectations of a sustainable rise in gold prices can be better explained by looking at what the upturn does not constitute.

"It cannot be based on spurious arguments of a panic-stricken "flight to quality." It is not based on erratic short-covering - speculative funds had already amassed a significant net long position, and it is not based on short-term forex related shocks," he said.

He noted that the dollar was very firm against both the yen and the euro. The South African rand and Australian dollar were by contrast weak against the dollar, making company profits in these currencies soared, he said.

Standard Bank analyst Robin Bhar also believes that the gold's rise is sustainable as it is based on "fundamental developments."

He said gold had reached a new trading range. "Before, we were looking at US$260-US$280 per ounce, now there is a new floor and the range in the US$280-US$300 per ounce range."

Against this backdrop, the re- duced hedging policy from producers also boosted prices. Anglo American PLC unit Anglogold Ltd's decision to scale back its hedge book by 6 million ounces earlier in the week is a case in point.

There are other factors helping gold higher. GNI analyst Lawrence Eagles said heavy Japanese safe-haven buying was seen again overnight despite the rebound in the Nikkei index. � AFX
++++++++++++++++++++++++

If the cabal can't drop the price of gold this week it will signify a major weakness as the Asians are on holiday until Friday.

Black Blade

(02/10/2002; 21:48:22 MDT - Msg ID: 69756)

Gold rally likely to last for sometime, say analysts

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2002/2/11/business/gold09&sec=business
Snippit:

LONDON: Gold's current rally is likely to last for some time yet as it is based on structural changes within the market, according to analysts. They said the current gains might appear to have been triggered by a cutback on hedging positions by gold producers and by strong demand in Japan, but these were contributing factors at best. "We expect that this rally may prove to be less of a temporary blip and more of a trend,'' Howard Patten, analyst at Barclays Capital in London said.

He said the upturn in gold prices was likely to stay intact until the structural events which pushed them through the US$300 per ounce barrier had passed. Patten said that as the pace of industry consolidation took on an increasingly aggressive tone, prices were set to receive boosts of speculative confidence and renewed levels of buying interest. The recent battle for control of Normandy Mining Ltd might have ended, but the process continued, he said.

Rhona O'Connell, analyst at the World Gold Council, echoed this view. "Some of the buying has a consistent pattern to it, which suggests that it is of a professional nature, while retail demand in Asia, especially Japan, remains very strong and if anything is accelerating, in addition there are signs of retail interest developing also in Europe," she said. The market remained very active with aggressive buying emerging whenever the price dipped, she added.

Black Blade: On the other side of the coin is that there are now fundamental changes in the World's economies that make Gold investment desirable as a contra-cyclical hedge. Systemic failures of the World's banking structure are evident everywhere from horrific bad loan losses in Japan to extreme derivative exposure in the US. This does not even account for one major financial scandal after another almost on a daily basis. The case for Gold ownership looks very strong.

Black Blade

(02/10/2002; 21:56:17 MDT - Msg ID: 69757)

Has Gold Regained Its Long-Term Luster?

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/feb2002/pi20020211_3463.htm
It took a beating in the '90s, but a host of uncertainties has sent prices soaring as anxious investors seek refuge in the precious metal

Snippit:

A PREMIUM ON SAFETY.

Add to this the increasing nervousness about the health of world economies and banking systems, and nervous investors could once again pile into the perceived safety of gold. The list of concerns that could drive gold's price even higher is daunting. Corporate defaults reached record levels in 2001, and, despite signs of an economic recovery, are on pace to break that mark in 2002. Argentina defaulted on its sovereign debt and its banking system has plunged into chaos. Japan is in the grip of deflation, and its banking system is coming under increasing pressure. (Indeed, recent press reports indicate that worried Japanese investors have been buying gold bars.) The latest worry: the viral spread of accounting irregularities among previously high-growth energy and telecommunications companies.

Black Blade: Ditto!

White Hills

(02/10/2002; 22:03:35 MDT - Msg ID: 69758)

Sourdough

Very interesting post concerning First Alliance.I think that the coming Real Estate "CRASH" will make the S&L scandal look penny anti. Without a doubt there are quite a few " Alliances" out there. It has been my experience where there is opportunity to steal and commit fraud they are doing it. When you have lenders of last and first resort just waiting to buy your paper with very few questions asked(The Fed and GSE) and monitize the debt to keep the whole system liquid it is perfect enviroment for fraud You would think that some enterprizing reporters would start digging instead of waiting for the scandal to fall into their laps such as happened with Enron. White Hills

Black Blade

(02/10/2002; 22:06:58 MDT - Msg ID: 69759)

Banking fears trigger gold rush in Japan

http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/money/story/0,1870,102229,00.html?
Snippit:

TOKYO - Japan is experiencing a gold rush as fears that the banking sector may collapse are driving ordinary Japanese to invest their savings in bullion, experts say. Sales at Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo, one of Japan's largest gold firms, have doubled since July last year, said company spokesman Osamu Ikeda.

There were 10 times more visitors than usual in the days immediately after the Sept 11 attacks, with one couple loading 30 kg to 40 kg of gold into their car, he said. Intense media coverage of Japan's deepening recession and rumours over a banking collapse have sent people exchanging hard cash for gold.

Black Blade: And the situation in Japan is not likely to get any better. Now the Japanese Government plans to fire up the printing presses and purchase shares of companies to prop up the Nikkei in their own version of the PPT. "Interesting Times"

Black Blade

(02/10/2002; 22:16:44 MDT - Msg ID: 69760)

Gold steals spotlight from state of the nation address as investors think global

http://www.busrep.co.za/html/busrep/br_frame_decider.php?click_id=345&art_id=ct20020210175511638J000334&set_id=60
Snippit:

Johannesburg - President Thabo Mbeki's state of the nation address was treated as a "non-event" on the local stock market on Friday, with investors opting to focus on gold as a buffer against more bad news expected from the US and the global economy. The financial index also lent a helping hand, as bank shares continued to recover on interpretations that earlier low levels represented an overreaction by investors who feared more profit warnings.

Black Blade: The prez upstaged by Gold.

tedw

(02/10/2002; 23:22:59 MDT - Msg ID: 69761)

Benton Mine

Snippit (paraphrase)

Benton Mine in Josephine County Oregon is a century old mine. During 1935-1945 the Benton mine supported 60 miners.
There are currently no operating mines at all in Oregon. The mine, about 30 miles north of Grants Pass, was shut down in 1942 by the Federal Government because it was not contributing to the war effort.

Dutch Mining, backed by the Rendata Corporation, has spent 4 million since 1993 expanding and sampling the original tunnels of the Benton Mine.

Elton Youngberg, now 88, was mine Superintendent when the mine was closed in 1942. Youngberg thinks the mine has big potential. "The grade is better than when we operated""It should do well. The vein to the south is wider than than when we were mining."

Dutch Mining is waiting for the price to climb ABOVE $300 before it begins full fledged mining, hopefully this year.

**************************************************
$300+ and old mines become economically feasible to operate.
Look for big profits in the mining sector.

Mr Gresham

(02/10/2002; 23:26:41 MDT - Msg ID: 69762)

RECORD 75 MILLION AMERICANS NOW PRETENDING THEY OWN THEIR OWN HOMES

http://www.satirewire.com/news/0106/dream.shtml"Minneapolis, Minn. (SatireWire.com) � Showing no ill effects from a weak economy, housing numbers released by the National Association of Realtors today showed that a record 75 million Americans are now participating in the mass self-delusion that they, and not their banks, actually own their homes. ..."

Belgian

(02/10/2002; 23:27:09 MDT - Msg ID: 69763)

Euroland - eurogold

I've seen the first Gold bullion with *eurogold* stamped on it ! Evidence for the concept ???

Waverider

(02/10/2002; 23:42:12 MDT - Msg ID: 69764)

Peso jitters grip Argentina

http://globeinvestor.com/servlet/WireFeedRedirect/RT/C/20020210/warge02101?cf=GlobeInvestor/config&vg=BigAdVariableGenerator&slug=warge02101&date=20020210&archive=rtgamSnippit:
"Argentina's month-old government said Sunday it would fight to keep the peso currency from plummeting when it is fully floated on markets this week, but people on the street nervously prepared for a new bout of financial chaos.

With the recently devalued peso set to trade freely on Monday after a week-long ban on foreign exchange trade ends, many Argentines stocked up on groceries and canceled normal weekend dinner plans out of fear spiraling inflation could be just around the corner.

"I'm buying double the amount of groceries as usual because I'm afraid next time I go shopping the prices will be much higher," Ricardo, a retired architect said as he perused half-empty shelves at a supermarket over the weekend.

Many analysts believe the peso, which has already lost half its value against the U.S. dollar since January, could tumble out of control, deepen a devastating four-year recession and possibly spark a new round of street protests."

schippi

(02/11/2002; 01:06:21 MDT - Msg ID: 69765)

Select Gold Vs Major Gold Indexes Chart

http:\\www.SelectSectors.com\goldindx.gif

EagleOne (2/10/02; 18:25:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 69745)
schippi #69731

I find your post that "(FSAGX) has out performed the major gold indexes"
a little misleading. Would you care to explain?

EagleOne, her is the Chart:

I suspect that the difficulty comes from comparing
different time intervals, rather than FSAGX performance.
This has to be the best of times when Gold conversation
Is about outperforming the Equity markets.

Black Blade

(02/11/2002; 01:09:21 MDT - Msg ID: 69766)

"Interesting" Debate on FOX

There is a weekly investment program on FOX news hosted by former CNBC info babe Terry Keenan. This week the panel's regulars Jonathan Hoenig of the Capitalist Pig, Dagan McDowell of FOX, Hilary (whatever), and Brian Finerty got into a brief discussion about Gold. Jonathan is the only Gold Bull in the group who emphasized the performance of Gold and his Gold stock pick (BVN), and of course there was the usual spittle ejected from the rest of the panel (dim bulbs). Comments from the Wall Street pimps ranged from Gold is a commodity no different that soy beans and pork bellies to "but there's no inflation" and "Gold only goes up when there's uncertainty in the World's markets". Of course Jonathan had the winning portfolio pick. Looks like Gold will climb much higher as Gold is still below the radar for Americans - but once discovered - look out! Hmmm�

- Black Blade

Waverider

(02/11/2002; 01:23:35 MDT - Msg ID: 69767)

Defenceless Japan awaits typhoon

http://www.guardian.co.uk/japan/story/0,7369,648390,00.htmlSnippit:
"There was bemusement in the financial markets last week when the price of gold went surging through $300 (�205) an ounce. Gold is supposed to be a hedge against inflation and a haven in times of war, but here it was going up at a time when America has sorted out its little local difficulty in Afghanistan and the real threat is not of rising but falling prices. It did not take long, however, for the markets to come up with a one-word explanation: Japan. The buying spree for gold was concentrated in the far east, with a rush by Japanese investors to find an asset that looks safer than shares in Japanese companies or Japanese bonds. Almost any asset looks safer at present than Japanese assets, and the flight into gold is entirely rational. Japan faces political and economic meltdown, and we are talking premier league stuff here. Argentina was only the third-biggest economy in Latin America; Japan is the second biggest economy in the world."

Black Blade

(02/11/2002; 01:24:13 MDT - Msg ID: 69768)

London Opens and Gold Drops

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
The POG is down -$1.70 at the open in London after wavering about in OZ and finishing unchanged. No real news to trade on so I suspect that there will be an effort to slam Gold while Asian markets are temporarily closed.

BTW, it appears that former Enron CEO Jeff Skilling may be facing perjury charges for his testimony before congress. I don't know the details yet. However, former Enron CEO Ken Lay will appear before congress on Tuesday. With Skilling facing possible charges, I would say that it is a lock that Lay will plead the fifth.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(02/11/2002; 02:27:26 MDT - Msg ID: 69769)

Gold bull on its way

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=26359
Snippit:

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal highlighted one of these important indicators. The article outlined how lower interest rates and the price of gold actually have a "cause and effect" relationship. It told of the seven Fed rate cuts between December of 1974 and November of 1976 and the subsequent 405 percent jump in the price of gold from 1976 to December of 1979.

The next seven rate cuts occurred between 1984-1986, and gold nearly doubled. The Fed again cut rates five times from 1990-1992, and gold jumped from $317 to $427. That's a whopping 34 percent increase in just six months.

Now, since the beginning of 2001, there have been an unprecedented 11 rate cuts. The conclusion the article draws is logical: "If history is any indicator, gold is set to rally in a big way."

Black Blade: Sounds good. Interesting article.

Black Blade

(02/11/2002; 03:22:42 MDT - Msg ID: 69770)

Business & Media: Treasury blows pounds 350m in great gold sale gamble

http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?story_id=27645059&ID=cnniw≻ategory=Metals+%26+Minerals%3APrecious&

Snippit:

THE SURGE in the price of gold could leave the Treasury's two year sell-off of its reserves, which ends next month, nursing a loss of hundreds of millions of pounds. The sell-off caused a storm of public protest when it began in 1999.

Black Blade: I'm sure that most everyone here can say "I told you so".

BTW, the World Gold Council is compiling a report on the effects of the UK auctions. An existing WGC analysis shows that gold makes up just 7.4 per cent of British foreign exchange reserves. In the US it is 55.6 per cent, in France 45.8 per cent, and Germany 36.8 per cent.

barnacle bill

(02/11/2002; 03:24:51 MDT - Msg ID: 69771)

tedw msg#69761

About ten years ago I bought a Canadian junior mining company with ground in Oregon. The Greenies had a slogan back then: "Mine free by '93". That company today is a shell-shocked skeleton of it's former self, but it still has a pulse, and it still has the ground in Oregon. There is a lot of gold in Oregon, but most people are unaware of that fact.

And�ril

(02/11/2002; 04:27:21 MDT - Msg ID: 69772)

"Gold is a commodity no different that soy beans and pork bellies"

Mr. Blade and others

Do not utter these words as though the information is somehow offered in poor taste or disingenuous. It is not!

Many a man has met miserable death, famished for lack of commodities "soy beans and pork bellies". Though it was surely not your intent, you mock their plight in your rash and unqualified judgements of value from your easy seat at a lavish table. Value is where you find it, when you need it; be it gold one day, beans the next, or water in the desert.

Gold has good and vital company with beans and bellies. Do not think it or wish it elsewise, and be prepared to justify your point if you do!

Gold Standard

(02/11/2002; 05:25:05 MDT - Msg ID: 69773)

The evil JPM....

I'm just having a bit of trouble working out the machinations of JPM flinging its gold derivative problems to Enron, which can then happily go down the gurgler. Problem solved!

If we look at the gold carry trade, no doubt practised to the fullest extent by JPM and Enron, they "lease" gold from a Central Bank for a set period of time.

At the end of that time, they either have to repay physical gold, (or monetary equivalent), or roll-over the facility.

Surely, JPM (or, indeed, any entity which "leases" gold) cannot say to the lender "Guess what - I'm not going to pay you back! I've been really clever, and I've transferred my liability to a virtually bankrupt third party - go and chase them for your gold, and don't hassle me!"

There is no way known, in any commercial transaction, that a "debtor" party could unilaterally transfer a liability to a bankrupt third party, without the express consent of the creditor.

Does anyone have any thoughts on this?

uponroof

(02/11/2002; 05:38:37 MDT - Msg ID: 69774)

Wisdom a Commodity?

That little blurb in the London Observer, regarding lost revenue on the BoE balance sheet (as a result of their gold sales) must've really made an impact on those responsible.

Obviously the folks at the BoE DO NOT want this, so far little story, to get legs and turn into a front page expose.

Currently with every $5US dollar drop in the POG, Eddie George and clan get $60,300,000 wiser. This morning they are getting smarter by the minute.

Which opens the debate to the ability to 'purchase wisdom'...which technically speaking should be correctly stated 'the ability to sell wisdom'(since in this case, gold sales improve wisdom)....Which begs the debate as to whether or not wisdom is a commodity...which at the heart of this debate being the irresponsible treatment of gold, would seem to make perfect sense to me....'wisdom' in this case, is a commodity BUT it is calculated in US dollars....not gold, which speaks volumes of the caliber of wisdom involved.

Watching the London close today for a bull raid...we'll see.

uponroof

(02/11/2002; 05:57:09 MDT - Msg ID: 69775)

@gold standard

I believe 'borrowed' CB gold must be repayed in kind...gold only, no monetary substitutions. Given the gold belongs to the people of that country NOT Central Bankers, it's only fair. Ahhh, but this creates the problem as 'money' is so easily printed, gold not. The 'rollover' you describe is, and has been, the option of choice, for these IOU (debt) peddlers. Hence the enormous short position and intensely ongoing search for available, unencumbered gold....soon to come to a safe deposit box near you?

TownCrier

(02/11/2002; 06:24:55 MDT - Msg ID: 69776)

Latest commentary, "Parallel Times", by Jim Puplava now available at USAGOLD

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/puplava/20020208.htmlThis week, Jim Puplava writes:

--------This Storm Watch Update does not attempt to debate the complete merits of the [president's economic stimulus] plan. However, it should be recognized that we now stand at the edge of a precipice. What we do today will determine whether we sink into the abyss or begin the long, long road towards recovery. This will not be an ordinary recession or bear market.

The world and especially the U.S. could be heading towards the most serious economic crisis of the new century and the largest economic crisis since 1930. If we do nothing, that crisis will unfold in a way we will least be able to direct. In his book The Crash and Its Aftermath, Barrie Wigmore, a one time partner at Goldman Sachs, argued that Roosevelt's speeches during 1932 and his refusal to guarantee the gold standard encouraged the public's hoarding of money and brought on the banking crisis of early 1933.

Wigmore argues that Roosevelt "as much as anyone, raised the Crash to its symbolic position as the cause of the Depression." Roosevelt used the crisis as political capital to justify the policies of his new administration.

It is with this idea in mind, that I view with suspicion Mr. Daschle's plans for holding up judicial appointments and over 50 bills in the Senate on energy, defense, and the economy. The Democratic leader of the Senate has invoked a rule that does not allow bills to the floor of the Senate unless there are 60 votes in favor of its passage. This parliamentary rule has kept the more conservative members of his party from working with Republicans and the President to get legislation passed. Can it be that Mr. Daschle's political ambitions for his party come before the needs of his country? This may be cynicism on my part, but it is a question worth asking.-------

(click link for full commentary)

RobotGuy

(02/11/2002; 06:39:36 MDT - Msg ID: 69777)

Someone's selling

So much for the 300$ floor. It'll be back.

Knallgold

(02/11/2002; 06:57:44 MDT - Msg ID: 69778)

GoldStandard

"There is no way known, in any commercial transaction, that a "debtor" party could unilaterally transfer a liability to a bankrupt third party, without the express consent of the creditor."

Maybe you answered your question in the last words?
It is only paper anyway...and can be defaulted on.If both parties agree on this,what can be done?The Gold is still physically in the vault of the CB,no? So who will holding the bag? Answer: (you got it!)

uponroof

(02/11/2002; 07:09:02 MDT - Msg ID: 69779)

CNBC

Did a nice hit job on gold this morning in typical round table style...passing the bludgeoning from one to another.

The icing came when Mark reported that one of the big houses has downgraded NEM to a sell for unspecified "problems within the company".

Now if NEM is smart they will buy back hedges today with a vengence. As crazy as it sounds, this market is thin enough that NEM can beat opposing market makers.

The war is on and this Chinese New Year is just what the doctor ordered for the foes of gold.
**********

I'll leave you with this little reminder:

"...Meanwhile, in the midst of this crystal-ball approach to predicting what equities will or won't do this year, some historic and genuinely authentic indicators for gold and silver are already here ? in plain sight, for anybody to see.

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal highlighted one of these important indicators. The article outlined how lower interest rates and the price of gold actually have a "cause and effect" relationship.

It told of the seven Fed rate cuts between December of 1974 and November of 1976 and the subsequent 405 percent jump in the price of gold from 1976 to December of 1979.

The next seven rate cuts occurred between 1984-1986, and gold nearly doubled.

The Fed again cut rates five times from 1990-1992, and gold jumped from $317 to $427.

That's a whopping 34 percent increase in just six months.

Now, since the beginning of 2001, there have been an unprecedented 11 rate cuts. The conclusion the article draws is logical:

"If history is any indicator, gold is set to rally in a big way..."
********

hang on folks

TownCrier

(02/11/2002; 07:09:55 MDT - Msg ID: 69780)

International editor Holger Jensen reporting on international peace demontrators on location in the West Bank

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Jensen/20020208.htmlComplete with photos -- Jensen writes:

------RAMALLA, West Bank -- His name is Daniel, he's 19 years old and he wants to be a chef. "I like to cook," he confides. Instead he's manning a machine gun atop an Israeli armored personnel carrier parked outside Yasser Arafat's headquarters. "I don't want to be here," he says, "but our presence prevents terrorism."

Some would say it causes more terrorism, I reply. Palestinians bitterly resent the presence of Israeli soldiers in Ramallah, the capital of their would-be state, and vow to resist until Israel ends its 35-year-old occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

"I live in Gilo," says Daniel. "The Arabs shoot at Gilo from Beit Jala all the time. So I have to fight for my country."

The reason Gilo comes under fire is that, to Palestinians, it represents a theft of their land. It is one of 10 Jewish neighborhoods that sprang up on the outskirts of East Jerusalem after Israel captured the Arab sector of the Holy City in 1967.

All this happened long before Daniel was born. His mother came from Canada, his father from Brooklyn and now they live in Gilo. Their son went straight from high school into the army to "protect them from terrorists" and he does so willingly and proudly.

What does Daniel think of the growing number of Israeli soldiers who refuse to serve in the occupied territories because they think the occupation is unjust and actually makes Israel less secure?

"It's easy not to serve," he says, smiling. "All you do is go to jail for a month and then they let you out. But my father fought for this country and I have to do my share. I've finished one year and have two to go. After that I'll get on with my life."

An officer yells out the window of an apartment building whose Palestinian residents have been evicted to accommodate the Israeli troops. "My commander says you must go," says Daniel with a grin.

As we walk away, the unseen officer is still yelling, still chewing him out for talking to journalists. But Daniel waves a cheerful goodbye.

Not far away, a small group of "internationals" has gathered to protest the occupation. A Japanese monk beats a drum as other volunteers from the United States, Britain, Ireland, Canada, Italy and Israel set off hand-in-hand with Palestinian children to deliver messages of peace to the soldiers. With flags of the various nations raised overhead, the marchers carry signs and the children paper airplanes saying: "Soldiers think! Don't serve a brutal occupation that expels, starves, humiliates and dominates an entire people."

...As this is being written, 22 Israeli peace groups are organizing buses to bring demonstrators from all over the country to a Saturday rally in Tel Aviv. "The occupation is killing us all," says their flier. "The Sharon government is perpetrating terrible acts over which the black flag of illegality flies. Continued occupation is drowning us in rivers of blood, Israelis and Palestinians alike. Continued occupation leads to loss of hope, to despair on both sides."--------

Jensen concludes, "There is no shortage of peace groups on either side. There are so many of them, in fact, one wonders why there is no peace."

(click link for full commentary)

Be sure to see Jensen's index for related stories from various angles.

This issue is sure to gain significance in light of the following two summaries:

1) AP HEADLINE: France unveils Mideast peace plan calling for Palestinian elections, state

CACERES, Spain (Associated Press) - France on Saturday proposed a plan to bring about peace in the Middle East which calls for Palestinian elections and the creation of a Palestinian state that would be "immediately" recognized by Israel and admitted to the United Nations.---

---VS---

2) Reuters HEADLINE: U.S. Opposes French Idea of Palestinian Elections

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States opposes a French and European proposal for elections in the Palestinian territories to give the winner a mandate to talk peace, a State Department official said on Friday. The official, who asked not to be named, said Washington believed the emphasis should remain on persuading Palestinian President Yasser Arafat to crack down on militant Palestinian organizations that attack Israelis.---

On the international scene, might any given currency bloc be supported (or not) based on its political positions? How difficult is it to imagine the major oil producers moving toward euros for settlement?

As always, the determination of value of your paper/digital money is in the hands of others. Rebalance your portfolio accounts to favor holdings of REAL wealth. Gold is a good start.

R.

Siochain

(02/11/2002; 07:40:01 MDT - Msg ID: 69781)

Gold downgrades

Yup..they took advantage of Japan close and London piled it on now US downgrades

Note from my morning market letter:

"Here is something interesting to ponder. A ton of analysts are coming ut downgrading the gold miners today, especially NEM. Why would that be? Is it because they are so good at calling stocks or is it something different? We suggest that a lot of the institutions have big players who are short gold and the miners. With gold's run up lately, they had better do something to get the prices back down. Just a thought."

Think his thought is right...you bet!!

Leigh

(02/11/2002; 08:22:24 MDT - Msg ID: 69782)

Poetry Awards - No Poem Left Behind

The weekend is through and, alas, so is the USAGOLD Poetry Contest. There were seven original entries. Thank you, Au-some, goldenboy, Matt, Pizz, Waverider, and Hoosier Goldbug. In an effort to ensure that No Poem Be Left Behind, EVERY poem has won a prize!

Here are the judges' findings:

Hoosier Goldbug (MY POEM! - 69647) - Most idealistic. Thank you for being the first to submit a poem.

Leigh (Waiting for Springtime - 69652) - Most shameless plea for Trail Guide's return.

Waverider (Ode to TG - 69669) - Most artistic plea for financial advice. Just kidding, Waverider! Thank you for taking the time and thought to put this together.

Pizz (My Contribution to the FOA Recall - 69688) - Most succinct and complete retelling of the Trail Guide story and most straightforward call to action.

Matt (Hear Ye! - 69692) - Best practice for Valentine's Day. Don't let your wife know that you wrote a "Roses are red, violets are blue" poem to a guy you never met!

goldenboy (Poem Contest - 69695) - Ditto! Most points for brevity and clarity of message.

Au-some (No Subject - 69721) - Most lyrical.

As you may recall, the purpose of our contest was to lure Trail Guide back into the fold. We therefore send these seven Valentine's Day Week poems out into cyberspace and hope that they will accomplish their mission.

Thanks again, everyone!!!!

Spartacus

(02/11/2002; 08:38:51 MDT - Msg ID: 69783)

Ron Paul on recession

http://www.house.gov/paul/congrec/congrec2002/cr020702.htm
Congressman Ron Paul
U.S. House of Representatives
February 7, 2002

Economic Concerns

uponroof

(02/11/2002; 08:59:42 MDT - Msg ID: 69784)

Hedger buybacks, campfires and the Japanese

Thinking this through a bit...

NEM (for that matter all miners seeking to unhedge) are I'm sure thankfull for the pullback....cheaper gold.

The foes of gold must realize that their intended ride back to 282 will not be a non stop excursion. At some point those miners looking to cover are going give in to temptation, buy large, and reverse this decline....free market exchange of sorts....(under the always present close supervision of those protecting the worlds best interests, of course-sic).

The more important underlying tone of this action today is the never ending question, which is nurtured in the minds of the bulls, for all it's worth by the cartel....

Are the big sellers (FED) still playing 1998 style POG hardball with the threat of the lawsuit, Enron-JPMC connections, etc in this new market climate begging to be untied?

Or is it more of the 'starting of campfires' which the cartel utilizes to insinuate great numbers against gold. These campfires designed to discourage the approaching army, when in reality those entrenched, cannot in fact defend their ground.

Will the approaching army turn around, at the sight of the fires, as it has done so many times before?

Miners....the time to buy is at hand!

Don't wait for the Japanese to come back into the market...who btw will think someone left them a Chinese New Years present with POG now 5+ bucks cheaper. They will buy up spot just as they have before, and you (miners) will be paying a premium for your gold.
********

Watch the London close.

Cheers

goldenboy

(02/11/2002; 10:19:55 MDT - Msg ID: 69785)

Uponroof: Analysts` Smashing Stocks

I am not surprised they would take a run at the best company with the best upside to gold. Only because they will be loading up on any price decline so they can then pump when the time comes. They probably have accumulate orders from the bullion shorts who can then pull the trigger on the next up rally at the end of the week when Asia comes back in from holiday. FN guys smart enough to figure thiis out and will not buy til Wed. Thurs. when i might finally pick up some Drooy hopeully at a bargain rate.

Carl H

(02/11/2002; 10:58:37 MDT - Msg ID: 69786)

JP Morgan Gold Give-Away Sale

Looks like the great JP Morgan Gold Give-Away Sale was in full swing this morning...don't miss out!

Black Blade

(02/11/2002; 12:35:51 MDT - Msg ID: 69787)

Gold Falls on Expectations of Reduced Demand From Jewelers

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht∣dle=ad_frame2_all&s=APGf1WhT7R29sZCBG
Snippit:

New York, Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Gold fell, retreating from a two-year high, on expectations that a 6 percent surge in prices last week will curb demand from jewelers.

Black Blade: Yeah, so if the POG goes up, jewelers will use iron or tin right? I don't think so.

Black Blade

(02/11/2002; 13:25:40 MDT - Msg ID: 69788)

GOLDMAN 'SACKS'

http://www.nypost.com/business/41157.htm
Snippit:

February 11, 2002 -- Just when investment bankers thought they were safe, Wall Street is once again preparing to swing the ax. Goldman Sachs Group is the latest firm expected to hand out pink slips as the slowdown in mergers and stock underwriting activity continues to take a bite out of profits.

According to people familiar with the situation, Goldman officials are drawing up plans for a big round of job cuts within its investment banking division beginning in the next several weeks.

Although it is unclear exactly how deep the cuts will be, these people say that they will be targeted mainly at the firm's senior-level bankers, who can't produce enough revenues in the current market environment to justify their eye-popping pay packages.

Black Blade: A lot of Banker "Bones" off to the growing "Bone Pile". Many one of those laid off senior bankers will spill their guts about some "questionable" business practices.

BTW, interesting that a downgrade of NEM from Prudential's boiler rooms supposedly affects the Gold market. I seem to recall that Prudential was involved in a criminal fraud involving "churning" insurance accounts that savaged the life savings of thousands of elderly Americans. So much for the "rock". Also notice that NEM gets downgraded and ABX fall furthest. Hmmm�

Black Blade

(02/11/2002; 13:41:51 MDT - Msg ID: 69789)

Going For Broke

http://www.fortune.com/articles/206351.html
Crash! There goes another company into bankruptcy.

Snippit:

Thus far, 2002 has produced no shortage of unusual spectacles: Chelsea Clinton's glam Versace makeover, models and economists mingling at the World Economic Forum in New York City, and Virgin Records paying Mariah Carey $28 million not to sing, to name a few. Alas, those topics are the province of other magazines. Luckily, the business world has proved scandal-rich as well; 2002 is rapidly becoming the year of the epic bankruptcy.

Three big blowups in as many weeks--Kmart, Global Crossing, and Enron (okay, this one technically took place in the last weeks of 2001, but you get the point)--rank among the largest U.S. corporate bankruptcies in history (see below). Banks are cracking down on cash-starved firms, companies are struggling to pay debt issued three years ago, and wary investors have a bad case of Enronitis. That puts teetering sectors like telecom, retail, and steel in peril. And the trend is building: Last year 257 publicly traded companies filed for Chapter 11, up from 176 companies in 2000. "We may be coming close to a peak in the bankruptcy cycle," says Henry Miller, a vice chairman for global restructuring at investment bank Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, "but we're not there yet." In fact in late January, McLeod USA (an emerging telecom) filed for Chapter 11 protection.

Why the bankruptcy boom now? A confluence of factors managed to make an iffy economy a breeding ground for Chapter 11 filings. The first culprit is a late-'90s binge that is turning into a wicked hangover. Back then banks and brokerage firms couldn't throw loans at startups or issue high-yield debt fast enough. In 1998 alone, Wall Street issued more than $141 billion of junk bonds, causing that market to jump to around $600 billion in 2001--more than three times its size a decade earlier. Investors lapped up the deals: After all, debt defaults--in which firms are unable to make principal or interest payments--had dipped as low as 1.6% in 1996, from 1991's record10%. "Investors figured [junk] was a pretty good place to put their money," says Martin Fridson, a chief high-yield strategist at Merrill Lynch.

Black Blade: We should see another Enron pop loose soon. Today top Global Crossing executives were issued subpoenas. It appears that Global Crossing (and even Quest Communications) were engaged in massive fraudulent accounting practices. Today the pundits have no reason to explain the rally on Wall Street. They have given it the name of the "No News Rally". Trading was said to be relatively light. Tomorrow Ken Lay goes before Congress and will likely plead the fifth.

sourdough

(02/11/2002; 13:54:06 MDT - Msg ID: 69790)

Japanese holiday

Gold goes down because the Japanese are not buying.
Does that relate to the Dow going up because the Japanese are not selling?
Gold must go into the Japanese hands. That is where it will do the most good for the world. The Japanese government may reach a point where they must ensure the gold price doesn`t crash. Soon the public cannot bear a bear in gold.

RobotGuy

(02/11/2002; 14:17:39 MDT - Msg ID: 69791)

SourDough

I've heard estimates that the Japanese will be out to buy gold perhaps even up until May, would this be a saturation point? Everyone obviously want's to make their own personal guarantee over and above the $75,000 government guaranteed limit. It has been stated that the Japanese have an average household savings of $115,000 or thereabouts, I'm just going off the top of my head. I think it is very good for gold that it decreases in value at this moment, so the Japanese have an opportunity to scoop up more 'glimmer' for their buck. This will obviously create a great physical demand in North America when the majority of us discover that we should be buying physical for insurance purposes. I wonder how many Japanese will leave the guaranteed $75,000 in the bank once they admire their physical for awhile?

uponroof

(02/11/2002; 14:50:29 MDT - Msg ID: 69792)

A bit of Cheer for my Canadian friends...

POG consolidated today. I am hearing it closed above 300 in NY at 300.10. Really not all that bad considering they had the weekend to plan and capitalize on the HK markets.

Thought some of my good buddies from the great white north would enjoy this bit of 'news' (ya gotta love Rumsfeld)...

CANADIAN WARSHIP SEIZES TANKER IN... WAIT...
CANADA HAS A WARSHIP?

Canadian television reported Friday that a Canadian warship in the Arabian Sea had seized a tanker suspected of smuggling oil from Iraq leading many to suspect that the report was a complete hoax.

"You're kidding, right? Canada has a warship?" asked U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. "Like for war?

"Does Canada know?" he added.

"Nobody was more stunned than we were," said Kali Omari, first mate of the seized vessel. "We saw this frigate steaming toward us, and we were worried, but then we saw the maple leaf on the flag, and we thought, 'Oh, Canadians. What the #### do they want?'"

When an officer of the HMCS Vancouver announced that the tanker was about to be boarded, the crew of the detained ship was confused, said Omari, but their confusion quickly turned to anger when they saw what the Canadians sailors were carrying.

"They were armed. With guns," said Omari. "Canadians!! With guns!!! And a warship!!!! What the #### is this world coming to?"

"They were pretty rude too," Omari added. "They started asking us all sorts of questions like, 'Where did that oil come from?' But the only thing we wanted to know was who gave them the damn warship."

According to Canadian defense officials, the Vancouver is one of four frigates deployed in the region to assist in the U.S.-led Afghanistan conflict. The tanker was stopped, officials said, because its cargo of crude oil violated United Nations sanctions which prohibit Iraq from selling oil unless in exchange for food and medicine.

The U.N. said the incident is already under investigation and promised swift action against those found responsible for giving the Canadians guns (much less a warship). Initial findings indicate that the Vancouver crew may have been watching too many American reality based television shows.
********

I feel so much better knowing Canada is to my north...nothing to worry about from that direction.

hee hee ;*

sourdough

(02/11/2002; 14:57:26 MDT - Msg ID: 69793)

Robot

hi Robot.
You seen those commercials where they appeal to old people.
Borrow on your house, take a trip, entertain, help out the kids. "You don`t have to pay it back until you sell the house".
Japanese has an aging population. They have worries about retirement. Why can`t the government get them to buy gold, then let that gold get repriced upwards. Your 10 -20 thousand becomes 20-40-60 thousand.
They want to spend, take a trip, entertain, help out the kids, just like in Canada.
All the government has to do is form a bank that will accept and loan on gold collateral. If you want a trip ,a car, whatever, in you come with your 1 kg bars. 1,2,3, whatever. You give it to the bank, they give you money, you "don`t have to pay it back until you die ).
If you choose not to pay it back, the government gets it.
This way the gold is never sold.(government ends up with it), but you have the windfall to spend, without selling your gold. The government has stimulated the "domestic economy. Any money printed to loan is backed by lean on gold assets.
Everybody wins, people have their gold, get to enjoy their retirement, can benefit from any increase in gold price (minus) minimum interest charges. When there dead there dead. kids can pay of the loan from the estate and get back the gold, or let it go.
Meanwhile, they economy starts to see demand from consumers who have money to enjoy life again.
(some stocks must be doing okay in Japan. Somebody is smelting these 1 kg. bars. funny there is no mention of shortage.Must have been ready .(smile)

sourdough

(02/11/2002; 15:07:08 MDT - Msg ID: 69794)

uponroof (02/11/02; 14:50:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 69792)

That`s a good one, gave me a good laugh. Maybe they weren`t loaded.
(P.S.) SAFE EH,wanna buy some whitewash?
Thought I saw some charcoal showing through on the Whitehouse the other day while watching a news report. (heh,heh,heh)

uponroof

(02/11/2002; 15:26:35 MDT - Msg ID: 69795)

Next we'll discover..........

they have a hockey team?

Hope it's before the olympics are over....and they bring home the gold.

;-)

Black Blade

(02/11/2002; 15:44:43 MDT - Msg ID: 69796)

SEC Subpoenas Qwest on Global Crossing

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020211/business_telecoms_qwest_globalcrossing_d_2.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Telecommunications company Qwest Communications (NYSE:Q) said on Monday the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission has subpoenaed it for documents relating to bankrupt phone company Global Crossing , sending its shares falling.

Qwest's shares fell as much as 3.96 percent in morning trading but pared some of those losses to trade down 1 percent, or 13 cents at $9.47 in afternoon trade on the New York Stock Exchange. Heavy trading volume meant Qwest's stock briefly replaced Tyco International Ltd. (NYSE:TYC - news) as the most active issue. Until then, Tyco had topped the most-active list for 10 days amid questions surrounding its accounting methods, debt ratings and restructuring plans.

Black Blade: Enronitis is spreading. This time it is bogus profits that never existed. Both Qwest and Global Crossing booked "swaps". That it they would sell capacity and book the sales as revenue while at the same time buy an equal amount capacity from each other and keep the purchase sorta "off the books". Note that Arthur Andersen was prominent at Global Crossing. I expect that there are dozens of corporations with Enronitis out there.

OH oh! News is coming out about "problems" with Nortel stock. After hours trading has been halted.

Black Blade

(02/11/2002; 15:50:30 MDT - Msg ID: 69797)

Goldcorp offers two-for-one stock split

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020211/n11323412_1.html
Snippit:

TORONTO, Feb 11 (Reuters) - Canadian gold miner Goldcorp Inc. (Toronto:G.TO) said on Monday it planned a two-for-one stock split to enhance its liquidity and exposure.

Black Blade: I haven't seen a stock split on Gold shares for quite a long time.

Black Blade

(02/11/2002; 16:07:18 MDT - Msg ID: 69798)

Argentines Flood Exchange Houses

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/020211/argentina_economy_5.html
Peso Holds Its Own, but Argentines Seek Economic Refuge in Dollars

Snippit:

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP) -- The peso held its own against the dollar, but Argentines flooded exchange houses nonetheless on Monday after the government freely floated the local currency for the first time in 11 years.

Argentines, anxious to unload their devalued pesos, waited in lines that stretched for blocks as the peso dropped as low as 2.5 to the dollar in early trading. The currency later rebounded, trading around the 2 peso-per-dollar mark it had been at for much of last week.

``For financial security, I only trust the dollar,'' said Ramon Ojeda, lining up with about 70 people outside the Paris Exchange House. ``The last thing I want is to be stuck holding a fistful of worthless pesos.''

Black Blade: It is difficult to have any sympathy for these "Grasshoppers". Those that did not prepare will suffer whereas those who did (Ants) will do fine - possibly even prosper - especially those with Gold.

Black Blade

(02/11/2002; 16:21:08 MDT - Msg ID: 69799)

Commodities-Oil rallies on Brent, gold awaits Japan

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020211/n11179199_1.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK, Feb 11 (Reuters) - Crude oil prices shot up to the highest level in a month on Monday as speculators jumped into the market after European oil prices spiked higher on talk of a supply squeeze for Brent, the benchmark North Sea crude. In other featured commodity trade, gold prices retreated but stayed above $300 as traders to see whether Japanese demand would return after Monday's holiday.

Black Blade:

Oil: Oil rose on US plans to begin replenishing the Clinton-Gore SPR oil giveaway that was disposed of in a failed effort to boost Al Gore's bid for the US presidency. Also Saddam Hussein of Iraq has announced that if GW decides to attack Iran, then Iraq will stand by their former enemy. Russia appears eager to increase production and compete against OPEC. Unfortunately for Russia, increased exports of oil in winter is very unlikely. Also OPEC could say "OK, fine - we'll produce more too". The problem is that much of OPEC can produce at prices as low as $8.00/bb. whereas Russia is dead in the water at $15.00/bb.

Gold: Gold held up well finishing above $300.00/oz. at the end of trading in NY. This is quite amazing as there was a strong effort by the Wall Street pimps to push Gold lower. There appears to be a new floor for the POG around $300.00. Tonight the Japanese markets reopen and it is expected that Japanese buying will resume. The free Chinas - HK and Taiwan will remain closed for New Years celebrations for the rest of the week. Mainland China has been accumulating several tons of Gold for reserves lately and this will continue into the new year. "Interesting Times"

slingshot

(02/11/2002; 16:46:17 MDT - Msg ID: 69800)

Uponroof Msg# 69792

HMCS VancouverJob Well Done, HMCS Vancouver.

U.S Defense Sec. Rumsfeld should worry about the condition of the U.S. aircraft carrier USS John F. Kennedy.

Wonder if he knows that the ship is having trouble getting
Certfied to go into combat. Should he not know at least the combatant vessels being utilize in that hostile area.

What else does he not know?

HMCS Vancouver is there on line. One up to the Canadians.
Slingshot

Black Blade

(02/11/2002; 16:49:27 MDT - Msg ID: 69801)

Kaplan Misses the Bull

http://www.goldminingoutlook.com/
Gold Bear SJ Kaplan has finally updated his page and yet is still a Gold Bear. He missed out on the best Gold rally in 5 years! He has made more bad calls than good ones, so I'll take this as a positive sign.

Now we await the open of the Japanese markets.

- Black Blade

Mythical

(02/11/2002; 17:13:41 MDT - Msg ID: 69802)

Sir Belgian...Euroland-Eurogold

Please elaborate on the Euroland gold bullion. Was this a picture/artist's rendering or a physical specimen? Please be more specific.

Mr Gresham

(02/11/2002; 17:37:22 MDT - Msg ID: 69803)

Leigh: Making a welcoming home

That was a great job with the poetry contest. What some people will do for friendship! But then, it IS close to Valentine's Day. (Plus: "Family is wherever you make it.")

"Home is the place where, when you have to go there, they have to take you in," wrote Robert Frost.

The Hoople

(02/11/2002; 18:19:11 MDT - Msg ID: 69804)

Gold will cut Prudential to "underperform"

The lame sell order on NEM by Prudential was pathetic, if not funny. The paper confetti machine Prudential issues a sell on real money-what a hoot! Also saw in Barron's today a bank analyst who was questioning whether gold and gold stocks were in a "bubble". They used to pound on gold with much more conviction, is this the best they can do? Gold is issuing a screaming sell on fiat, period. Prudential will get taken to the woodshed with all the other wallpaper still being offered as stock on Wall Street.

Canuck

(02/11/2002; 18:31:15 MDT - Msg ID: 69805)

27 minutes of golden glory

http://www.jonesheward.com/commentary.cfmMr. Coxe has turned slightly bullish and praises the truth!!

If you like Mr. Coxe, you will love this one.

Ray Patten

(02/11/2002; 20:25:50 MDT - Msg ID: 69806)

Tokyo Gold futures

http://www.tocom.or.jp/souba/souba_e.html
It looks like the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) Gold futures market is going to have a big influence on the world Gold market for the next few weeks at least. The above link is that market's quotes updated every 5 minutes. The market is open from 7PM to 3:30AM, New York time, with a 1 1/2 hour break for lunch. Prices are quoted in yen/gram. A current rule of thumb is to divide the yen price by 4.3 to get $/oz. I'm sure someone can come up with a better formula than that, however. The site is in English.

Black Blade

(02/11/2002; 20:44:33 MDT - Msg ID: 69807)

TOCOM Futures

It would appear that Gold and the PGMs are in backwardation on the TOCOM charts. Hmmm...

Meanwhile Gold is showing strength just above $300.00/oz. spot. That's encouraging.

Black Blade

(02/11/2002; 22:25:56 MDT - Msg ID: 69808)

Market Wrap Up - Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

If I had to bet on this one, I would bet against Wall Street. It is more likely, but not probable that Newmont's shares are going to head higher this year rather than lower. The analyst failed to mention monetary demand, and a flight to quality is what is driving the demand for gold shares at the moment -- not jewelry demand. Gold has been running an annual supply deficit for close to a decade. It has only been official central bank gold sales and gold leasing that has kept the price down. Gold Fields Minerals reported that central bank sales were 468 tons last year. Other reports put that number much higher. The fact remains that fabrication demand alone of 3,483 tons far outstrips gold production of only 2,595 tons.

Black Blade: Good one from Puplava tonight.

Black Blade

(02/11/2002; 22:50:12 MDT - Msg ID: 69809)

Shades of Enron at Global Crossing

http://www.washtimes.com/national/20020211-393691.htm
Snippit:

Global Crossing - the telecommunications company whose Jan. 28 bankruptcy court filing has been eclipsed by the growing battles over Enron - remains an enigma to the public even after joining Enron under the FBI microscope.

Black Blade: There are louder calls for a high profile investigation of Global Crossing and Qwest Communications may also be dragged into the mix. There are even calls for an investigation into Arthur Andersen's cozy relationship as auditor of not only Enron, but also as auditor for Global Crossing and Qwest. The auditing firm appears to be tied into several "questionable" calls in the Global Crossing-Qwest swaps that were allowed to show up on the balance sheets as profits. One Enron away from economic collapse? How about 2, or 3, or 4, or more? Today we also hear that EMC, the data storage company may be the next shoe to drop in this sorry saga of deteriorating auditing standards.

BTW, I sold the last of my Qwest shares last week. Just too many scandals, and then I heard an interview with the CEO - not very encouraging so I bailed.

jinx44

(02/11/2002; 22:50:38 MDT - Msg ID: 69810)

(No Subject)

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/champeau021302.htmlThis will be the forward to a book written in 2015, or thereabouts. Don't miss this editorial.

Waverider

(02/11/2002; 23:03:01 MDT - Msg ID: 69811)

Ballooning world prices halt India's gold imports

http://www.timesofindia.com/articleshow.asp?art_id=676533Snippit:
"Gold imports into India, the world's largest bullion market, have come to a complete halt due to volatile global prices and traders expect activity to pick up only after prices stabilise.

Gold imports in the city have stopped from about 4,000-5,000 bars (of 116.64 grams) per day nearly 10 days ago, traders said."

Waverider: Interesting little article out of India.

Black Blade - is there anything of interest in the CNNenEspanol I posted? It seemed to have a strong Central/South American focus. PS - the important question - did you buy Gold with the proceeds? (smile)

Black Blade

(02/11/2002; 23:13:46 MDT - Msg ID: 69812)

The Fall of the House of Morgan

http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=974348
Snippit:

Among the many banks stung by recent bankruptcies in America, one name stands out: J.P. Morgan Chase was a big lender to three of the biggest corporate failures-Enron, Kmart and Global Crossing-and has had to write off hundreds of millions of dollars. It also lost heavily in Argentina and on its private-equity holdings

Black Blade: Quite a long list of bad loans, lawsuits, poor investment decisions, and extreme derivative exposure. Interesting article.

Oh yeah BTW, But Michael Mayo, an analyst with Prudential Securities, is telling investors to sell J.P. Morgan shares.

Black Blade

(02/11/2002; 23:48:06 MDT - Msg ID: 69813)

Waverider

http://www.economista.com.mx/I have read the spanish edition of CNN before, I prefer El Excelsior from El Distrito Federal when I can get it (both print and digital). However, the Economista (Mexico) is fairly good as well. I also like La Naci--n from Argentina as well. There are several others, but these are my favorites.

As far as my proceeds are concerned, I just parked the funds in shares of Ferrell Gas Partners (FGP) for now. I am not giving advice here, they happen to be a partnership with high yeild. I hope to make some more Gold purchases when I step down from the "Bone Pile" in another month or so. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(02/12/2002; 00:08:30 MDT - Msg ID: 69814)

Waverider

http://www.analitica.com/va/economia/
Me gustan varias otras revistas en espa--ol. No todos son papeles de las noticias diarios - algunos son peri--dicos semanales o mensuales. Yo normalmente enfoco en noticias econ--micas o noticias de petr--leo. An example can be found at the link - happy reading! Cheers!

tedw

(02/12/2002; 00:24:09 MDT - Msg ID: 69815)

Real Value

Here is another way of looking at the real value of Gold and Fiat notes.It is an established principle when appraising that reproduction cost is one method of establishing value.

Reproduction cost of an ounce of Gold varies from mine to mine but generally it is in the $150 to $280 range (us dollars)(correct me if Im wrong).

What is the reproduction cost of 6 -$50 US notes? Although I dont know, I would suggest it is pennies due to the large quantities printed.

It is only because the vast number of players in the market
place have been hypnotized to believe in the intrinsic worth of fiat notes that they have perceived value.

The time will come when real value (as reflected in the reproducion cost) will assert itself. People will wake up and realize they have been had. Those holding Gold will have real value,those holding Fiat notes will have chits of paper.

Black Blade

(02/12/2002; 00:38:25 MDT - Msg ID: 69816)

POG Falls

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.htmlGold is falling off a cliff now - couldn't hold above $300.00/oz. Oh well, it was a nice try anyway.

Waverider

(02/12/2002; 00:39:43 MDT - Msg ID: 69817)

Black Blade

Estudi� el espa--ol en la escuela (a--os hace) y la necesidad, yo pienso, probablemente meses ..maybe..3-6 en SA. �Como el aprendizaje cualquier idioma, yo entiendo m�s que puedo synthesize! �A--o quiz� pr--ximo - zambullir en el Galapagos si soluciona! Esqu'o ma--ana tan dir� buenas noches. Cheers,
Waverider
ps - I cheated big time here :)

Belgian

(02/12/2002; 01:49:09 MDT - Msg ID: 69818)

@ Mythical # 69802

The inscriptions on the EuroGold 100 gram bullion plate :

Euro
Gold

100 g

Fine Gold
999,9

+ melter
assayer
000001

Providing the link + picture is against the rules of this house and to be respected ! (the word euroland (Brussels) is associated with Euro Gold).
If we hadn't been educated by A & A, who mentioned about eurogold (euroland) coins I would never have given any importance on this Euro Gold inscription. But as a good student I have to come up with evidence on our beloved Professor's (Sir Douglas) theories. I think that this EuroGold/euroland thing is to be considered as an indication on what FOA has been projecting in his wildiest of reality dreams. Regards to you Mythical.

Black Blade

(02/12/2002; 03:12:43 MDT - Msg ID: 69819)

Bank of America Money Found at Ground Zero

http://www.newsday.com/business/ny-wtcmoney0211.story?coll=ny%2Dbusiness%2Dheadlines
Snippit:

Enough cash to fill 60 garbage bags was pulled from the rubble at the World Trade Center site over the weekend by police and excavation workers, officials said Monday. The U.S. and foreign currency is believed to be part of $11 million reported missing by Bank of America. Police and excavation workers filled about 60 garbage bags with the currency, which they turned over to the city's Processing Clerk Division for handling, he said.

Black Blade: Let's see - There's Gold and Silver at ground zero and it's in a steel vault. Someone tries to break in as evidenced by pry and torch marks. Guards are posted at the vault and cameras put in place until the vault is opened. When the vault is opened, the Gold and Silver is hauled away in armored trucks.

$11 million in fiat is found at ground zero and low level workers put it into garbage bags. Hmmm�

Mythical

(02/12/2002; 05:12:33 MDT - Msg ID: 69820)

Belgian... Eurogold

Thank you for clarifying your recent message. No need to explain your respect for our gracious host by not posting the related link. Frankly, I'm a bit surprised that very few took notice to that juicy tidbit. I agree wholeheartedly, that this is further evidence of A/FOA's thoughts gradually being introduced without much fanfare. Your posts are very much appreciated!

Respectfully,
Michael

Black Blade

(02/12/2002; 05:17:03 MDT - Msg ID: 69821)

Gold marks time in Europe, silver slightly lower

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020212/l12218691_1.html
Snippit:

LONDON, Feb 12 (Reuters) - Gold marked time in Europe on Tuesday morning, looking for direction and building a base for a fresh attempt to cross the key $300.00 level, traders said. Traders said they expected another medium-term rally as the market in Japan re-opened after a break on Monday to celebrate a national holiday.

``I expect another spike, we might touch maybe $305 within days. Basically, nothing has changed since last week. Japan's worries are still there so they will continue to buy,'' one said. Another said gold might first test support at $297.00 before moving higher. Buying was expected to emerge at lower levels and lift the market off the lows. ``It will be a very short play around $297 but then we will move higher. The market can hold these levels,'' he said.

Black Blade: Maybe we will see more volatility in Gold once the Asian markets reopen after Lunar New Year celebrations.

Also the FBI is crying "Wolf" yet again with stories about an invasion of terrorists who are supposed to strike the US today.

Ken Lay tells the US Congress to "get bent" as he pleads the fifth. Many more Enrons come to light on a daily basis - or so it seems.

Cavan Man

(02/12/2002; 05:57:11 MDT - Msg ID: 69822)

Belgian

Doesn't this Euro gold coin have a fiat value (denomination) inscribed? I have heard it does. Thanks

Knallgold

(02/12/2002; 06:29:42 MDT - Msg ID: 69823)

EuroGold 100 gram bullion plate

Very interesting!But what we need is an accompanying announcement with an official change in (Gold)policy.Otherwise its just the change of the stamped sign on the Gold.Oh,and where will they get all this Gold?From the 12000t stashas Mundell suggested once?

I guess Michael is already researching this EuroGold story :-)

RobotGuy

(02/12/2002; 07:39:03 MDT - Msg ID: 69824)

Lower Open

I think we might see a big drop in the markets today. Nortel has announced lower spending, and investors don't approve. All of the hype over the last few days in the markets could be blown away in one day. I think gold is also going to drop today, but I could be wrong. It just seems like it went up so quickly, that it needs to retrace a few steps before it can move again. All just guestimations.

CoBra(too)

(02/12/2002; 07:49:20 MDT - Msg ID: 69825)

"Blue Letter" averted by Germany and Portugal- but only just.

Germany and Portugal averted the EU Commission's official early warning by vowing to bring the budget deficits down
and in line with the stability pact's limits.

Political influence by Germany at all levels to avoid spanking from the EU Commission does not bode well for the future stability of the �. It also shows that the big countries are just a little more equal than the small. Would it have been Portugal alone you can bet it would have got the pink slip.

Furthermore, the regime of Helmut Schroeder and Hans Eichel has led to exploding deficits and to an disproportionate economic slump in Germany. Instead of being the economic leader of the EU it is now leading the union into real recession - and the only hope for the German Socialists is again the US taking the lead. Fat Chance, as the consumer of last resort is totally maxxed out.

As a l.t. �-skeptic, one more reason for physical gold feels
cb2

Pizz

(02/12/2002; 08:01:36 MDT - Msg ID: 69826)

Belgian -A few thoughts

Belgian - Nice pick-up on the Eurogold. Another piece to FOA/Another's mosaic.

About 15 years ago I met (briefly) an older lady who was retired out of the USA diplomatic corps. These are our ambassadors who are posted to our embassies around the world. They rub shoulders and minds with the "power" people and have their own "networks".

This lady was extremely concerned at that time (mid 80"s)that the credit card (debt) issue was going to take down the world economy. She forcasted that the Visa/Mastercard system would soon be on the brink. (I'm going to do more research on this issue).

Never really gave it any thought until your post. Being a fairly newby to the forum, I started reading FOA with a great deal of sceptisizm (never could spell, but sounds right). His message is now starting to become way too real.
If I had to guess, since we know Another is English, I'd bet FOA has either come out of the ambassador arena or something very close. If I'm right, and until I see trends to the contrary, my vote is we have some very good "inside" information on the state of the world.

My own worst virtue is Patience. I fight it every day. I try to keep in mind the supertanker post. The message and transition are going to take time, and there will be many paths leading away from the trail.

Keep up the good work. It's starting.

Pizz

Cavan Man

(02/12/2002; 08:19:35 MDT - Msg ID: 69827)

Keep your own investment counsel?

NOTHING FOR SOMETHING
By Bill Bonner

"Sure, every company on the NYSE would show earnings if
you eliminated expenses. Listen, you have to remember
that Wall Street's business is the business of
distributing stocks to the public. When you see who
these characters are, you know you're not dealing with
philanthropists. These guys want to make money, and they
do it by distributing their wares, the same as Wal-Mart
does."

Unattributed comment on Richard Russell's
website

CoBra(too)

(02/12/2002; 08:36:23 MDT - Msg ID: 69828)

@ CM - Found the following excerpt from Eric Fry as refreshing-

*** Brokerage houses almost never issue "sell" signals.
They hold stocks such as Global Crossing, Cisco,
WorldCom or Enron...until the share price goes to
practically zero. Then, and only then, do they change
their rating from "Strong Buy" to "Accumulate." Imagine,
then, the excitement when Prudential told investors to
sell...Newmont! It seems to be okay to sell gold
producers. They must not give Wall Street enough
business.

*** Prudential's sell signal on Newmont may confirm that
a new bull market in gold is developing.

Quite the statement - go figure cb2

RobotGuy

(02/12/2002; 08:43:31 MDT - Msg ID: 69829)

FBI Warning!!

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2002/02/12/MNWARNING12.DTLSnippit:

According to the alert, "recent information indicates a planned attack may occur in the United States or against U.S. interests in the country of Yemen on or around 2/12/02. One or more operatives may be involved in the attack."

RobotGuy; Good thing I'm not a financial advisor. This report may cause some gold buying today, and in the near future.

USAGOLD Market Commentary

(02/12/2002; 08:50:51 MDT - Msg ID: 69830)

Analysts Say Gold Correction May Be Short-Lived, Eye $320NEWS & VIEWS Update!

Available online to all clientele and prospective clientele, NEWS & VIEWS Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has again been updated.

Read the full commentary and related information here. (access codes required)

New visitors may review these selected portions provided at the Daily Market Report page. You may enjoy our 24-Hour NewsWire provided at this page, also.

sector

(02/12/2002; 09:06:04 MDT - Msg ID: 69831)

Yen has held in a steady range centered 133.33 for about a week

...Thus the upward yen price of gold has also been steady.

The dollar index on the other hand is slipping...down from 120 to 118 during the same period.

This MAY be a trend to lower the dollar and keep the yen where it is...time will tell.

The trend that really counts above all else is the move to gold by the Japanese family housewives (who happen to control more than meets the eye). They have no viable alternatives to safety:

(i) The yen is in a primary down trend
(ii) The NKK225 is moribund and confidence is lost
(iii) Japanese bonds are a joke at 1%
(iiii) Japanese real estate still hasn't returned to bargain status
(v) Their export economy [just about everything] depends solely upon a cheap yen since the world economy (read purchasing power) is flat and will stay that way for some time
(vi) The rapid access funds (cash) are breathtaking in size
(vii) The Japanese media is less propagandistic than CNBC and actually tells the truth once in a while...i.e., it isn't treason in Japan the show moms and pops buying gold to obtain "safety" for their life savings

American denial regarding the stock markets down future coupled with a powerful media anti-gold [abating of late] campaign tends to divert attention away from the above unrelenting forces at work in Japan.

Cavan Man

(02/12/2002; 09:17:21 MDT - Msg ID: 69832)

@CB(too)

CB: Do you know anything about the Euro gold coin Belgian and Knallgold have been chatting about. My understanding is that there is a fiat value stamped on the coin as well. If that is not correct then I do believe another friend has given a "heads up" on this. Still figurin'....CM

RobotGuy

(02/12/2002; 10:25:46 MDT - Msg ID: 69833)

Possible Attack

I remember the close watch America was keeping on the Sears Tower in Chicago shortly after the Sept. 11 attacks. These terrorists like to take as many people with as little effort as possible. Recently in Canada a number of government immigrant documents were stolen, I am not aware of their whereabouts. Chicago has easy access from Canada Via. Lake Michigan. Since airport travel is out of the question, these terrorists may consider entering the United States through alternate means from Canada if they are on this continent. The Sears tower would be an ideal location for this type of assault. Ground level explosives would be extreemly devastating to such a structure. I hope United States military personnel are prepared to probe any individuals trying to get anywhere near the viscinity of this structure.
I don't believe the Olympics would be the main focus of this group.
With any luck, all of the individuals suspected in this group were already killed in the bombings in Afghanistan.

sector

(02/12/2002; 10:26:12 MDT - Msg ID: 69834)

Congress Pushes for Accounting Reform..well almost.

http://www.msnbc.com/news/705289.asp?0si=-Panel pushes accounting oversight

House committee wants to create private regulatory board

By Michael Schroeder
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

WASHINGTON, Feb. 12 � The House committee that oversees the financial-services industry, signaling an unexpected intent to impose changes, has decided against letting regulators have sole responsibility for deciding how to overhaul financial reporting....]

[...Among other things, the proposed bill would order the SEC to require that off-balance sheet transactions be reported and that material events that could affect the value of a company's stock must be reported as they occur � both of which are changes being pushed by Mr. Pitt.
The accounting industry, with the support of many members of Congress, bitterly fought efforts by Mr. Levitt to ban auditors from cross-selling certain categories of consulting services to clients. Now, many of those same lawmakers are embracing tough new auditor-independence standards in light of criticism that Arthur Andersen LLP may have accepted questionable Enron accounting for fear of losing lucrative consulting work.
The bill would ban audit firms from offering their clients assistance in preparing financial statements, or so-called internal audit work. The SEC would be charged with reviewing whether other consulting services should be banned, including tax-preparation services. In the aftermath of so many recent accounting scandals, the accounting profession, with an eye toward restoring confidence in the audit process, has expressed interest in working with the SEC on improvements. Some major firms now support separating audit and consulting services and have already announced plans to do so on their own....]
++++++++++++++++++++++

No independent oversight in the bill so no true reform...but it's a start.

So much so that the baddies are scared...bad.

Belgian

(02/12/2002; 10:34:49 MDT - Msg ID: 69835)

EuroGold (100 gram bullion and coins)

@ CM : NO, fiat value (denomination) ! NOT official minting.
But a stamped sign "EuroGold" is too coincidental to be insignificant.

@ KnallGold : Do you rember what happened (to POG) with the "Official" Goldpolicy announcement in '99 = W.A. ?
Any such official announcement had and will have, dramatic and immediate consequences ! We have to anticipate such announcements with extra spying on seemingly insignificant events ! The Chineze central banks made a very official statement on Gold, recently ! A 25% increase of their official Goldreserves ! Still an infinitesimal amount of 500 little tonnes for 1,6 billion people, slowly participating in the most exhuberant economic development !
This was an extremely strong announcement to me ! Don't you agree ?

@ CBII : I've disconnected the short term (!) economical fortunes of Euroland from the present euro/Gold/oil-concept.
The stability and growth pact will call for Gold's intensive/openly help when appropiate. All these little euro-rows aren't worrying me at this stage. The concept-builders are a very silent force (my intuition only).
Belgian/French media are highlighting all aspects of the Arabian Oil world as never before. Euro-policies with Arabia/China/Russia/Eurasia are evolving on a much different trail than the US policies. And I bet that the euro-currency, Gold and Oil are incorporated within this policies. Without attacking the US-dollar openly at any given moment. Will wait for closer evidence.

@ Pizz : Why does the euro-currency, discretely, wants to be associated with Gold (Duisenberg pictured in Dutch Gold vault)? This in sharp contrast with the US dollar who hates Gold as the plaque ! This is exactly what FOA wants to communicate. And indeed, this euro/Gold association/concept is presented with a low profile and subtily discrete.
This does not indicate that nothing is growing underneath. As a possible example : Is it coincidence (again) that the recent minus 10$ POG goes with a plus 1 1/2$ POO ? Without A/FOA, I would never have seen this possible relation.
Surely more to come on evidence. Kind regards to you.

Knallgold

(02/12/2002; 10:34:55 MDT - Msg ID: 69836)

CavanMan,EuroGold

It should not have any fiat value stamped on it,it would prove FOA wrong.He said it will be something like a Krug.,just the Gold content setting its value.Gold,not the money,rather the store of value.

A plate,is it is round or more like flat bar?Sorry ma bad english,but in german a plate can be of any form if it is "platt", flat.

CM,you don't mean the Golden Ecu? Recently I saw one in a bank and this made me jump as thought I missed something in the news.

On the fiat value,the correct number would be infinite and not find enough space on the coin...

sector

(02/12/2002; 10:49:41 MDT - Msg ID: 69837)

Gauchos on Mt. Fuji?

http://atimes.com/japan-econ/DB12Dh01.htmlhttp://atimes.com/japan-econ/DB12Dh01.html

Japan the Asian Argentina?
By Uwe Parpart, Editor, Asia Times Online

Looking at his country, Goldman Sachs Japan chief economist Tetsufumi Yamakawa can offer little more than recounting a cynical joke that's been making the rounds for some time in financial circles: "What's the difference between Japan and Argentina?" Answer: "Five years." But after international ratings agencies once again downgraded key Japanese financial institutions on February 5, that projection has to be rewritten, says Yamakawa. "Now it's only three years, or one, or perhaps just six months - depending on how optimistic you are." �]
[�
By official Japanese government count, non-performing loans (NPLs) run at only (!) 43 trillion yen or about 8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) - more than double the level during the US Savings & Loan crisis of the 1980s. Private NPL estimates range from 60 trillion yen all the way up to 100 trillion yen. If that's not enough, the total amount of bad loans - in spite of 2.5 trillion yen in bank write-offs - rose by 500 billion yen from April to September last year, because an additional 3 trillion yen worth of loans went sour during that period. "They [the banks] can try to deal with either the old non-performing loans or the new ones, but not both," says HSBC analyst Brian Waterhouse. If Japan's banks were subject to the same accounting standards as America's, most would fail to meet the 8 percent Basle capital adequacy criterion needed to operate internationally. Some would even have negative capital. The banking system is technically insolvent. �]
[�
Now to the Argentina-style scenario for Japan. As a result of a decade of overspending by the central and local governments and concomitant failure to reform the economy, Argentina is bankrupt. Its ratio of government debt to GDP stands at 55 percent. As a result of a decade of overspending by the central and local governments in order to avoid (and hence, of course, failure of) reform, Japanese public debt stands at over 130 percent of GDP (by far the largest of any major economy in the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD) and according to Standard & Poor's will rise to 175 percent by the middle of the decade. That Argentina went bust while Japan to date continues to be able to service its relatively (and, obviously, absolutely) much larger debt is largely due to a huge difference in interest rates in deflationary Japan and inflationary Argentina.
Still, there are any number of sequences of events that could lead to the detonation of the Japanese debt bomb. Here's one: A large life insurance company fails (five smaller ones have already bitten the dust) and pushes a big partner bank to the edge of insolvency. Foreign fund managers pull out of stocks, bonds and the yen en masse. Spooked savers stage a run on the banks. Interest rates spike. The government bond market takes a nose dive. The crisis is on. Life insurers are particularly vulnerable now precisely for the same reason Japan is still able to service its debt: deflation and ultra-low interest rates. They wrote long-term policies 10 or 20 years ago with guaranteed nominal rates of return of 5.5 percent, but their current investment returns are well below 2 percent, producing a total negative spread of nearly 2 trillion yen per year. And life insurers are particularly apt to produce a crisis, because they turn to partner banks for help, buying bank shares in return for bank purchases of insurers' debt. Let an insurer fail and the partner bank won't be far behind. Keiretsu strikes again. �]
++++++++++++++++++

Japan is the key to gold confidence.

Knallgold

(02/12/2002; 11:09:02 MDT - Msg ID: 69838)

Belgian

I fully agree!Occasionally,I watch my stored Kitco graph from 26. Sept. 99,just for entertainement...

When I tell people about China (and Russia) buying Gold,it seems it makes them thinking a bit more than usual.Especially those who are aware about the sleeping and patient giant China!

As to the "seemingly insignificant events",I can add those:

regularly I check for news in the food departement.Several new Tea's have cought my eyes (all in liquid form in a Tetrapack): Green Tea(!) with Osmanthus/Passionflower extracts,Green Tea with (Chinese!) Shizandra-berries extract,a vanillaflavoured (South African!) Rooibos Tea.

But you know I'm hearing the grass growing...its probably just the WTO effect.

TownCrier

(02/12/2002; 11:43:47 MDT - Msg ID: 69839)

Argentina reality has unfolded as predictions warranted by theory -- world gold market yet ahead

http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1021017-6094-0,00.htmlFrom the article:

----------BUENOS AIRES The Argentinian peso fell 12% yesterday, on the first day of fully floated trade against the US currency in more than a decade as anguished investors lined up for dollars to shield savings from the feared return of rampant inflation.

...Economists' forecasts for the currency have ranged from just more than two to the dollar to as much as five pesos in the next few months, shocking for a country used to its currency unit being worth a dollar each since 1991.

...Argentinians' access to cash has been severely restricted since early December when the government slapped unpopular limitations on bank withdrawals to stop a run on the banks which already saw around a quarter of deposits flee the system last year as panic grew about devaluation.

...After a bloody December of rioting forced elected president Fernando de la Rua and his initial successor to resign, Eduardo Duhalde, a Peronist former vice-president, took the helm and devalued ... was forced to stiffen the cash limits imposed by De la Rua and convert all dollar savings and loans into pesos.

But Argentina's 36-million people, with access blocked to their cash, watched anxiously as their earnings dwindle in terms of the dollar. They now fear a fresh financial blow in the form of rampant inflation.-----------

Yes, I called this well in advance, but I do not gloat because a VERY good friend and his family did not take and act upon my cautions. Lulled into a false sense of confidence after a decade-long period of "business as usual" in Argentina, they just couldn't accept my troublesome predictions at face value.

Having raised an eyebrow at the notion that the peso would lose its "converitibility" (meaning, its one-to-one peg with the dollar), and despite my warnings (as early as last April) about potential bank runs and capital controls, my friend felt that their U.S. dollar-denominated accounts were beyond touch, representing adequate diversification against "the unthinkable" striking his homeland.

How did he and his family fare, less than a year later? Let me repeat from this article: ---"Eduardo Duhalde ... was forced to stiffen the cash limits imposed by De la Rua and convert all dollar savings and loans into pesos."--- Needless to say, he and his family now suffer the torment of unnecessarily lost wealth and financial uncertainty.

The gold market, too, shall unfold as has been predicted, and gold derivatives or gold proxies will not live up to expectations due to default and rules changes. My comments on the matter are scatered widely through the archives and are therefore of little use to newcomers here and now. Not to fear, the 'Gold Trail' pages are available to give you the big picture in one easy location -- and better than I could.

http://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/

You need physical gold for the full journey. Argentina as an example, the value of paper substitutes have clearly shown their vulnerability.

R.

Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD

(02/12/2002; 11:45:40 MDT - Msg ID: 69840)

Hard assets... Easy access!

http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Empires rise and fall, as do economic freedoms,
and common fortunes fade away
like memories of common events.

Why should YOU buy gold Sovereigns today?

Because no one else will do it for you.

Centennial is here to help.
1-800-869-5115

Pizz

(02/12/2002; 11:56:52 MDT - Msg ID: 69841)

More thoughts

Belgian: As you discount a few Euro-rows, I discount daily correlations between gold & oil. I believe the FOA cheap oil for cheap gold is now pretty much over. Gold will break ties with everthing once set free.

The subtle Euro/gold correlation - this is FOA all the way. Notice how as paper US markets lose confidence, we see the subtle move towards the confidence of the age old metal (I know you see it, and so do I). The loose tying of the Euro to gold reserves, IMO will finally (3-5 years) move towards small quantities of gold in coin (or even paper - spun gold thread by weight in paper????). As fiat and paper inflate away, the correlations to gold will become firmer & firmer.

Paper Holders/Paper Traders: Be prepared to lose it all, because the markets are going to be so volitile IMHO over the next 18 months, they will be virtually untradeable. I will still play with a little, cause I love the game, but its a game, and a rigged one it is. You can't lose over the long run with physical and I am still accumulating. With a little luck, a few mine shares could cover my fiat debts, and that's the goal, but I'll have to win my own personal war with Patience and Greed. I hope I have the fortitude to sell a bit early, but the patience to hang in there for a while (anyone got a few extra Valium?? - just kidding!)

Argentina??: Sure looks like a Japanese lab experiment to me.

The War on Terror: I'm expecting a Nazi type blitzkreig thru Iraq by the US. Too quiet, too much subtle dissention among our "friends". It's going to take something real big to get Enron and the rolling bankrupsy's off Page 1. Right after the Olympics is my guess.

Pizz

ski

(02/12/2002; 12:24:02 MDT - Msg ID: 69842)

Why not Japanese Silver Buying??

There have been indications of recent Japanese buying of gold and platinum. Some on this forum have taken it a step further and developed mathematical projections for gold consumption as a result of the Japanese buying. "If just X amount of families with X amount of yen were to purchase gold, it would result in X amount of tons of gold purchased."

If the Japanese are just half as smart as I think they are, they will also be strong silver buyers. Why? Because if only SEVERAL DOZENS of Japanese families bought silver, they would end up owning all of the remaining known silver stock in the world. We can only guess what this would do to the world price of silver as a result. But it would be safe to say that in percentage terms, silver would make a larger percentage gain versus gold if and when the buying finally runs its course.

Cavan Man

(02/12/2002; 12:33:59 MDT - Msg ID: 69843)

Belgian, Knallgold and CB(too)

My European friends:

Please clarify regarding the Euro gold coin. Is there such an animal? If so, does it or does it not have a fiat value stamped on it? I somehow have gotten confused (dumb Irishman that I am). FOA did say there would be a coin like the krand. I am curious to know if this is true. TIA..CM

Leigh

(02/12/2002; 13:11:23 MDT - Msg ID: 69844)

"Blast" From the Past

Apparently over at the Urban Survival website, they're using web bots to predict an attack on some large, influential financial institution - for example, the London Metals Exchange.

Does anyone remember the ending of "Rock 'n' Roll High School? (where things got wilder and wilder and finally the school blew up)" That's exactly what this would remind me of.

Henri

(02/12/2002; 13:26:37 MDT - Msg ID: 69845)

Trail Guides Message 36028 from Sept.2000

More golden nuggets along the trail...? Admonition to Watch Oil!

Henri

(02/12/2002; 13:29:48 MDT - Msg ID: 69846)

Watching Oil

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/javachart/CO/32Wow!

Max Rabbitz

(02/12/2002; 15:03:13 MDT - Msg ID: 69847)

Is the Normandy deal over?

http://www.quicken.com/investments/news/cbsmw/notemplates/frame.dcg?symbol=NEM&ntlink=/relocate/co=quotes_cbs;http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/intuit/pulseone.asp?siteid=intuit&dist=intuit&dateid=37298.4447106481-796674964&796674964Have gold manipulators really given up on preventing the Newmont merger with Normandy? The analyst's rational for downgrading Newmont was company specific. In fact he raised 2002 and 2003 average gold price estimates to $300. Here is the story from CBS Marketwatch.

"Analyst Jon Tumazos at Prudential Securities downgraded the stock to "sell" from "hold," and cut his price target to $10 from $21. Tumazos thinks that several of the deposits that classifies as reserves or resources "appear suspect," and he worries that the company buy out its partner or invest capital to build large mines that produce no gold at a profit. Meanwhile, he raised his earnings estimates for the company given the recent surge in gold prices. He also lifted his gold price estimate for both 2002 and 2003 to $300 from $270 and $290, respectively. "We attribute the recent increase in investment interest to poor returns cash, bond and stocks stemming from 1.7-percent short-term rates, lousy corporate earnings, and probably shorter-term accounting anxieties."

Max: Referring to "suspect reserves" may be an attempt to stir up a little Enronitis. And "buy out it's partner"? It's called a merger. And "build large mines that produce no gold at a profit"? What he means to say but can't is that Newmont plans to mine and sell gold without hedging. He wants them to hedge and lock in that little profit now that gold is at $300.

Maybe Prudential just wanted to help their preferred customers cover their shorts. Den of thieves. But maybe there is more to it and if Newmont will have problems closing the merger.

I wonder if there will be labor or terrorist problems at Newmont's big mine (Yanacocha) in Peru, or in Indonesia, or elsewhere. Everyone knows there are lots of problems in the third world.

It's nice to have the physical in hand.

Black Blade

(02/12/2002; 15:21:18 MDT - Msg ID: 69848)

All Right Leigh! - Rock and Roll High School

Some how I never pictured you as a Punk Rock "Rock and Roller". You don't have spike hair do you?(just kidding). Unfortunately Joey Ramone (of the Ramones) died last year. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Boxman

(02/12/2002; 15:32:54 MDT - Msg ID: 69849)

A pox on Prudential for their Newmont call. Sweet revenge

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/business/article/0,1299,DRMN_4_982183,00.htmlsnippet:

Though the company's stock dipped about 5 percent Monday because of an analyst's sell rating and a modest drop in gold prices, the company is confident prices will continue their uptrend this year.

"The fact our stock didn't go down more today is attributable to the fact that many see gold will continue to rise in the future," said Newmont spokesman Doug Hock. "And gold is still up around $300, which is a psychologically important level."

Montgomery sees gold prices hitting $340 an ounce by the end of the year.

"As time goes by, gold is going to get the respect it's missed in last 25 years," he said. "We're going through a financial crisis in the world now."

Max Rabbitz

(02/12/2002; 16:09:31 MDT - Msg ID: 69850)

Wells's Paulsen Sees Long Bond Yields at 41-Year Low

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APGl5OBRLV2VsbHMnPaulsen, who helps oversee $75 billion as chief investment officer at Capital Management in Minneapolis, said 10-year Treasury yields will drop to 3.75 percent this year from 4.96 percent. The prediction hinges on his expectation that officials will enact policies to accomplish what 11 Federal Reserve rate cuts failed to do last year: lower long-term borrowing costs.

``The economy will disappoint because of the high cost of long capital,'' and that will spur Congress and the Federal Reserve to find news ways to drive interest rates lower, said Paulsen, who correctly predicted the bond rally of 2000 would extend a second year. ``There's great angst about why long rates haven't come down.''

Max: They need to bring down those long rates to keep the mortgage refinancing going. But how? Getting rid of the long bond worked less than 2 weeks. Gold is getting out of control. Paulsen doesn't say what those "new ways" could be but I'm sure they'll come up with something. Japan could do it. So can we.

Broken Tee

(02/12/2002; 16:14:13 MDT - Msg ID: 69851)

Story at Bloomberg

Earlier today I could swear I saw an article that said Reynolds(?) Aluminum filed Chapter 11 today. I can't find anything on it now.
Would someone please help me. I think my short term memory may be going.....

Max Rabbitz

(02/12/2002; 16:17:09 MDT - Msg ID: 69852)

Jon Tumazos at Prudential Securities

How many times have you seen an analysist raise his earnings estimates for a company at the same time he lowers his rating......to a sell. Strange times.

Max Rabbitz

(02/12/2002; 16:23:59 MDT - Msg ID: 69853)

Broken Tee and Aluminum

http://www.voanews.com/article.cfm?objectID=CAEFA4FA-184A-4905-9481DE1F10D75996&Title=Kaiser%20Aluminum%20Files%20for%20Bankruptcy%20Protection&CatOID=45C9C785-88AD-11D4-A57200A0CC5EE46CReynolds merged with Alcoa last year. There was a story today on Kaiser Aluminum. Yes, more bones for the bone pile. Don't know how many. Slow economy, big debt and asbestos lawsuits did them in.

Broken Tee

(02/12/2002; 16:33:57 MDT - Msg ID: 69855)

Max Rabbitz

Thanks for the confirmation. It still looks like there maybe a short term memory problem though. (Kaiser not Reynolds) Thanks Again.

Cavan Man

(02/12/2002; 16:40:07 MDT - Msg ID: 69856)

Broken Tee

Kaiser Aluminum is in bankruptcy (filed today).

Boxman

(02/12/2002; 16:43:57 MDT - Msg ID: 69857)

Ominous signs from Japan

http://www.depression2.tv/chronicles/chronicles1.htmlSnippet:

"In the next issue, we will discuss Tamisuke Matsufuji, a former Solomon Brothers bond trader who wants to blow the lid off the gold price and how he plans to do it".

...........................................................

I'll keep my eye peeled for this next article.

Voyager

(02/12/2002; 16:45:06 MDT - Msg ID: 69858)

Japan Banks & Bad Loans

Can someone please explain who owes them on all these loans?

goldquest

(02/12/2002; 16:48:55 MDT - Msg ID: 69859)

John Tumazos and NEM

http://www.zacks.com/stories/99164154436.htmlNot the first time Tumazos has slammed NEM.

uponroof

(02/12/2002; 17:30:51 MDT - Msg ID: 69860)

Max, Boxman, goldquest ...all

Prudential, like all savvy corporations has a very big marketing department, which is now apparently branching off into show business. Their new production is entitled...
"Attack on the Weak Hands"

Expect bad news, but beware of it. This may just be the start (for all gold related issues).

It's intended to scare weak handed share holders into selling....allowing insiders a buying opportunity at bargain prices.

I hope this is what's going on as it portends well for gold.

What's that old saying about prying something out of my cold dead hands?

Pizz

(02/12/2002; 17:40:24 MDT - Msg ID: 69861)

Observations

My lady in accounts payable yesterday finished reconciling one of our factory statements. Found thousands in credits (to us) posted as debits (invoices) to us in January. Their bank loans are tied to their Accounts Receivable (dealers).

Today we received a corrected statement (in February of course).

Could be an error, or what???? I personally don't think it was a mistake, since this foreign manufacturer has been in trouble for a long time. So much for 100,000 mile warranties!!!

Starting to see a lot of small indications that there are major cracks in the balance sheets and cash flow for auto manufacturers and their finance arms.

Gett'n real ugly quicker than I thought.

Pizz

Black Blade

(02/12/2002; 18:07:49 MDT - Msg ID: 69862)

Prudential - NEM Downgrade

Has anyone considered that these investment houses and brokerages are not at all happy that the large unhedged miner Newmont won the bidding war for Normandy over mega-hedger AngloGold? This downgrade by Prudential (of criminal fraud fame) is probably payback. Many fundamentals were overlooked by this alleged analyst in the report such as the large accumulated reserves from the Normandy acquisition, over $1 billion cash reserves brought to the table by Franco-Nevada, and the steady stream of royalty payments and free cash flow in the Franco-Nevada stable. Either this alleged Prudential analyst (John Tumazos) is a complete idiot, or he complicit in a concerted effort to bring down the share price of this Non-hedger and by association the price of Gold. It is a rather transparent shallow attempt because the facts do not support the basis for the downgrade. If anything, the facts should result in a much higher premium to the share price. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see through the real reasons for the downgrade.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(02/12/2002; 18:26:53 MDT - Msg ID: 69863)

Gold Fields head sees better days

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={93889AA2-5EEE-4F18-A83B-1FA820C4D562}&siteid=mktw
Gold Council to promote metal as investment

Snippit:

Editor's note: Thom Calandra has vowed to dye his hair gold if the precious metal closes above $300 an ounce for five straight days. The spot price of gold late Monday fell below $300 to close at $299.80, ending a three-day run. Stay tuned.

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - The gold industry, enjoying its first taste of $300 spot gold in two years, will meet this week in South Africa to discuss where to go from here. The Cape Town mining conference brings together executives, investors and government officials from 25 countries. Many of them are hopeful that African nations, which are intensely reliant on natural resources, can draw investment dollars, euros and yen to their country's mining projects.

Thompson prides himself on fashioning one of the world's largest non-hedged producers of the metal. Unlike Anglogold and Barrick, Gold Fields refrains from selling forward its production, a practice that would boost the payment it receives for that gold. The dark side of hedge books is they encourage loose lending of the metal, thus depressing the gold price.

With global interest rates at depressed levels, hedgers are no longer assured of hefty returns when they take the cash from their forward sales and put it into interest-bearing pieces of paper. Plus, gold's fresh volatility is scary for hedgers, who can get "caught out" by a rapid price rise and see their forward-sale price actually come in below the metal's spot price. Anglogold, the world's largest of the notorious hedged gold miners, is now saying it hopes to slowly reduce its hedge book

What's more, the so-called contango between futures prices in faraway delivery months and nearby months is shrinking. A fat contango, which usually occurs when supplies are adequate, helps hedgers squeeze even more money out of their forward sales.

Black Blade: The day of the Hedger is over. I do not pity the Mega-hedgers as they are getting their just deserts. Barrick has no PE, because it has no E. AngloGold can't even win a bidding war against smaller Non-Hedger Newmont. These guys are in a world of hurt - especially if the POG rockets higher. In fact I do not even pity the stupid shareholders of these Mega-hedgers as they have had poor performance and most have lost value. That is the case for those who do not do their DD. Only the profitable Non-Hedgers will survive. Gold is an insurance policy against periods of economic distress. That is why physical Gold is so important. The Hedgers have sold their off their insurance value and in fact risk bankruptcy in the face of a rising POG. Quite ironic isn't it?

R Powell

(02/12/2002; 18:27:38 MDT - Msg ID: 69864)

Newmont

With all the talk of Prudential's downgrade of Newmont, I thought I'd take a peek at today's trading.
Hello, what's this!
NEM 23.97 +0.46 +1.96%
I don't own any stock but if I did, I'd be happy to have the rock's downgrading if it brings such results.
Also, Gooood day for the white stuff!
Rich

Black Blade

(02/12/2002; 18:38:57 MDT - Msg ID: 69865)

Ominous Signs from Japan

http://www.depression2.tv/chronicles/chronicles1.html
Snippit:

The daily televised circus of the Enron scandal is mere titty-tainment, a smokescreen obscuring a real crisis: The breakdown of global capitalism. In this issue we examine recent developments in Japan, and the ominous signs of things to come, not only for Japan, but for the rest of the world economy.

Japan's economy, mired in stagnation and recession for the past 12 years, has seen its stock market lose 75% of its value, unemployment and homelessness climb to record levels, and public debt soar beyond belief. Now, things are about to get worse for Japan and the rest of the world.

Gold in Japan

In the mean time gold sales in Japan are starting to pick up. In the 4th Quarter of last year, investment gold sales rose 54% in Japan, according to Grant's Interest Rate Observer. There is news that this investment is coming from citizens, buying physical gold, keeping it in their homes as a store of value. Extreme nervousness must be setting in to see this type of activity.

Unfortunate as it is for Japan, this development is extremely bullish for the world gold market: Avid savers, the average Japanese has over $105,000 stashed away. Half of that is in the bank, earning next zero yield, precisely the same amount that gold would earn. Gold, however is not at risk of vaporizing into thin air, the way a fiat currency is. Gold is a rock solid store of value, and also sports a nice potential upside. Japan currently accounts for only 20% of world investment in gold. There is plenty of room to grow! And from a cultural standpoint, there are few barriers to an increase in the purchase of consumer investment gold. This is a country where the majority of people are still paid in cash on payday! Fear of theft, a big impediment to physical gold investment in this country (where am I going to keep it?), is nearly non existant in Japan. One good marketing campaign on the part of the gold industry could spur unbelievable demand. Japanese marketers can be masterful, and consumers quite obedient to their overtures�

The Feb 10 Observer notes: "Japanese consumers have also been flocking to banks to convert the rapidly depreciating yen into gold bars. There are fears that the banking system could collapse when government deposit guarantees lapse in March."

Black Blade: If you want to see some gruesome looking graphs, just check out the article. The Japanese economy is in a desperate situation. During the convention of "Davos on the Hudson", several attendees commented that the world economy was at risk because of Japan. Japanese Gold buying is not a fluke - they know what is coming.

USAGOLD

(02/12/2002; 19:19:40 MDT - Msg ID: 69866)

Black Blade. . . .Gold Demand

Unfortunate for the Argentinians that they went first. Though if they had been even passing students of history, they should have known. In dealing with the self-inflicted destruction of the new paradigm, they led the way. It is unfortunate what went on there -- still goes on there -- and I feel for them. Imagine watching the world disintegrate around you and being kept from your assets by the government supposedly established to help you. (The Enron lesson is not far removed from that.) Meanwhile the rest of the world learned -- including the Japanese. Hence, the burgeoning demand. Astute investors around the world now know: It can happen "here" -- wherever "here" might be -- including Japan, the United States and Europe. For the rest of us, in this context, we are at a turning point; not the end game.

There is time to act -- and acting can be at many levels, but none more important than this:

Own the gold.

And the let the politicians, the press and the financial scalawags fight over who's to blame.

FOA . . . .Perhaps Tostoy was right after all.

Getting over the cold and flu and getting back in the mix. Best to all. . . . .

Black Blade

(02/12/2002; 19:24:44 MDT - Msg ID: 69867)

Market Update - Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

Even worse is the fact that many companies are starting to come clean on their earnings. Auditors are taking a harder look at how the numbers are reported and the SEC and the FBI are investigating companies. Global Crossing could turn out to be a bigger scandal than Enron. In the latest accounting story, Nortel said it fired its chief financial officer, Terry Hungle, because he violated retirement plan investing rules. With government, and now the accounting professions keeping a watchful eye, more companies are fessing up to internal accounting problems. It makes many in the investment community nervous because you don't know whose dirty laundry is going to be exposed on the line.

On the international front, the picture is growing more worrisome. The Japanese economy appears to be heading towards the abyss. Its stock market is down 75% from its high reached back in the late 80's. The economy has been stagnating for more than a decade. The unemployment rate is still climbing is at levels not seen in several decades. The government of Japan has $5 trillion in debt. With interest rates rising on Japanese debt, it is no longer considered to be of the highest quality. And for the first time since the 1980's, the Japanese stock market has been selling at a level that is lower than the Dow. People are lining up in the streets in Japan to buy gold as the government phases out deposit guarantees at Japanese banks. For the Japanese citizen, there are no safer places to put their money than history's money of last resort. With their currency down over 20% this year and interest rates near zero, it is no wonder the average Japanese investor is turning towards gold. Gold sales in the third quarter of last year rose by 91% from the previous year. For Japanese investors, it keeps getting worse. However, Japan's problems could become the world's problems since they are banker to the world. Japan has trillions in overseas investments and loans that may have to be repatriated if things get much worse. A withdrawal of Japanese capital from around the globe could cause financial markets to tumble. It is a problem that is keeping G-7 leaders up at night.

Black Blade: Japan's economy is about to slide off into the abyss and the US economy is deep into Recession (actually a deepening New Depression) in spite of what the pimps of Wall Street claim.

MK - I hope you get better soon, you may have a lot more business to take care of as the World's economies deteriorate. Cheers!

TownCrier

(02/12/2002; 19:25:37 MDT - Msg ID: 69868)

Many are climbing aboard the gold train

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/feb2002/pi20020212_1031.htmChief sector strategist for Standard & Poor's looks favorable upon gold, writes...

HEADLINE: Gold: A Haven -- and More

-----The precious metal's improved fundamentals, as well as investors looking for a hedge, have S&P bullish on the gold-mining industry

Gold is traditionally seen as a safe harbor investment in times of turmoil. Like now. The price of the yellow metal -- and of shares in companies that mine and produce it -- have held up well since the September 11 terrorist attacks. And gold has again taken center stage since the Enron debacle.

However, jittery investors looking for a refuge aren't all that's powering the advance in gold. S&P metals analyst Leo Larkin points out that the metal's fundamentals have improved. That's why he has a positive investment outlook...----------

(click link for his summary review of gold's many positive fundamentals -- all of which you've probably already seen in MK's "daily" reports here. But seeing a reminder now and again from an outside source is nice.)

USAGOLD

(02/12/2002; 19:28:33 MDT - Msg ID: 69869)

Correction...

That reference was to "Tolstoy" not "Tostoy"

uponroof

(02/12/2002; 19:39:05 MDT - Msg ID: 69870)

Buy rerry kwickry prease!

http://www.wellsfargonevadagold.com/content_american_advisor.htmGotta love the Japanese...a tip of the hat to these truly wise people.

"..Last Thursday in Tokyo they recorded an all time high in gold sales 340,676 contracts which equates to 10,800,000 oz more than NEM/FN/NDY produces in a year....and the move has just begun.."

link above..click on radio show

Tonight Aussies just beat it down 2+ bucks. Japan is now coming to bat.

btw-thanks Canuck for the Coxe link last night. Nice to listen to another human voice, as opposed to endless reading, (not complaining) expressing interest in gold. One of these days we'll be openly discussing gold at the grocery store, gas station and with the mailman.

sector

(02/12/2002; 19:46:09 MDT - Msg ID: 69871)

@roof...Japan Can't Hog ALL the News

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3PY2I8MXC&live=true&tagid=IXLI0L9Z1BCItaly's banks may face unpleasant surprises
By Fred Kapner in Milan
Published: February 12 2002 21:30 | Last Updated: February 12 2002 21:35

Italian banks are about to undertake spring cleaning and unpleasant surprises in year-end accounts are likely to be spring out of the cupboards, analysts and bankers warn.

Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, Italy's sixth largest bank, on Wednesday is expected to give an estimate of the write-off it will take for its loans in Argentina. While most analysts believe BNL will make provisions for Argentina of around E350m, the bank could decide to write off nearly double that, people familiar with the bank said. �]
+++++++++++++++++++++
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3GGGJ4MXC&live=true&tagid=IXLI0L9Z1BC

Sterling rises as inflation figures jump
By David Turner and Jennifer Hughes
Published: February 12 2002 19:45 | Last Updated: February 12 2002 19:46

Sterling rose on Tuesday against a range of currencies, as markets were left surprised by a sharp rise in underlying inflation to above the Bank of England's 2.5 per cent target.

The numbers raised expectations the Bank would be the first key central bank to raise interest rates. Short sterling fell sharply on the news.
+++++++++++++++++++
My, my, my it does seem there is a touch of nervousness across the pond and on the Continent these days.

LimitUp

(02/12/2002; 19:47:14 MDT - Msg ID: 69872)

Make Me Feel Good

Does anyone have a feel for what a reasonable offtake of Au and Pt by smart Japanese would be? And could there be a world shortage of 1Kg bars? Your answer,if positive,could encourage me to place an order with MK!

slingshot

(02/12/2002; 19:48:08 MDT - Msg ID: 69873)

Japanese buyers of Gold

Thank you

Domo Arigato. Please excuse if incorrectly spelled.
Slingshot

Cavan Man

(02/12/2002; 20:07:50 MDT - Msg ID: 69874)

USAGOLD

MK, The reference to Tolstoy; something to do with Anna Karenina? (BTW, WHAT a fine novel!)

Cavan Man

(02/12/2002; 20:14:41 MDT - Msg ID: 69875)

"Own the Gold"

My metal is up nicely while my equities founder near the shoals. The exception is an understanding with a continental friend. Thank goodness for new friendships in old countries.

Black Blade

(02/12/2002; 20:16:16 MDT - Msg ID: 69876)

Jumpy Japanese join gold rush

http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1020177-6094-0,00.html
With uncertainty in economy and banks, investors seek security in bullion

Snippit:

JAPAN is experiencing a gold rush as fears the banking sector may collapse drive ordinary Japanese to invest their savings in bullion, experts say. Nori Mochihara, a trader at Mitsubushi Materials, said: "Normally people would come to our shop asking for 5kg of gold. Now they produce �10m or �20m and ask: How much gold can I buy with this ?"

"Gold's popularity has always increased in times of social or financial insecurity, or during a war," Ikeda said, pointing at gold crazes after the Soviet army invaded Afghanistan in 1979, or the great Kobe earthquake of 1995. Images of golden nuggets gleaming from inside safes found in the ruins of houses destroyed by the quake, remain ingrained on people's minds, Ikeda said. But this latest gold fetish was not triggered by a natural disaster.

Incessant, "sensational" coverage by the media of Japan's deepening recession and speculation over an imminent collapse of banks, crippled by a mountain of bad loans, has sent people exchanging money for gold, he said. A government plan to cut an unlimited guarantee on certain bank deposits to �10m on April 1 has also ignited fear among the public that they may loose their savings if a bank goes bust. Gold dealers often hear this cited as a reason to buy gold because it has value anywhere in the world, said Nick Mizuki, a representative of the World Gold Council in Tokyo.

Black Blade: Gold - the ultimate "money" of last resort. I suspect that when other Asian markets reopen next week we could see even more Gold purchases. AG had said not long ago that Gold is the ultimate store of value. Too bad for the Argentines that they did not hold onto their Gold Argentinos.

USAGOLD

(02/12/2002; 20:23:06 MDT - Msg ID: 69877)

Cavan Man. . .

Actually the two big ones: "Karenina" and "War and Peace". .. . . . Same theme, two different attempts. . . .Fate intervenes no matter who you are -- Captains, Kings, the rest of us. . . . . .in War, Peace, Love. . . .even something as dry as business and finance. Despite our best laid plans. Both novels by the way are masterpieces. Speaking of which, have you seen "A Beautiful Mind" yet, CM?

goldquest

(02/12/2002; 20:25:58 MDT - Msg ID: 69878)

Newmonts Turn

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/breaking/breakingnewsarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20020212&ID=1418929 to downgrade Prudential to a sell!

Cavan Man

(02/12/2002; 20:37:51 MDT - Msg ID: 69879)

@USAGOLD

Mike: No, not yet but it is high on the list (typing as the mice run across my cieling :>(. My father has recommended it to us. Just finishing up McCullough's "John Adams" and beginning "Founding Brothers". It is almost time to take the girls to the range. I believe an early spring is upon us here. I keep you in my prayer book.....CM

Black Blade

(02/12/2002; 20:45:07 MDT - Msg ID: 69880)

Bonds, oil, energy signal market woes

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B42795E18%2D9D5B%2D4A1E%2DBC14%2D8C845A1AB446%7D&siteid=mktw
Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - There are increasing signs of trouble on Capitol Hill, in the oil patch and among the yield field.

Black Blade: The consumer is tapped out, bankruptcies are rising, consumer confidence is falling, and foreign investors are ever more skittish as scandal after scandal plagues the US economy. Get prepared, get outta debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, get enough cash on hand for expenses, and get a several months worth of food and basic necessities stored away.

Waverider

(02/12/2002; 20:47:46 MDT - Msg ID: 69881)

Voyager: The Yakuza Recession

http://www.feer.com/articles/2002/0201_17/p012region.htmlThis article may partially answer your question re: Japanese bank loans. Cheers,
Waverider

Canuck

(02/12/2002; 21:02:53 MDT - Msg ID: 69882)

Residential Real Estate

Does anyone have links to prices of res. prices, I can't seem to find info., especially in the frozen north.

My neighbour and I are having a little silent battle. He figures that since real estate prices have been balloning the last 3 to 4 years he is missing the boat and is deciding to move up. His thinking is that a percentage gain of a larger (more expensive) home will provide a bigger gain in equity. His thinking is correct, I assure him, if housing is going to continue to increase.

His house is the same as mine, valued at about $140,000. He has sold his and is borrowing about $40,000 to buy a $180,000 home. I punched in some numbers into an on-line mortgage calculator and found that the extra 40K works out to about $350/mth. So here's the deal, he's sinking $350 into the house of which I figure roughly 250 is interest (gone to money heaven), he's beating an (extra) 100/mth off the principle so at the end of the year he's $1200 ahead.

I, in the meantime, take the $350 per month,($4200/yr.) sink it into a tax sheltered balanced fund, save 40% on income tax ($1600), roll that into the same fund, and make 5% within the fund ($290) for a total of $6090.

Now the 2 houses appreciate 10% in a year, 18,000 for Mr. Neighbour plus his 1200 paid principle for a total of $19,200. I have $14,000 plus 6,090 from investments for $20,090.

In Canada, gains in a 'principle residence' are not taxable while I stand to be taxed some day when I withdraw from the sheltered account but the theory goes that when I do I will be in a much tax bracket.

If the 2 houses appreciate very little or let's say by nothing in a year Mr. Neighbour has beaten his mortgage down by 1,200 while I have nested 6,090, quite a difference. Even at 10% appreciation, year after year, I am staying even.

Does this theory hold any water? Do you formula wizards have any thoughts on this crazy real estate market?

Canuck.

Black Blade

(02/12/2002; 21:05:55 MDT - Msg ID: 69883)

Debt load a problem for firms, economy Interest costs affect earnings

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0202120292feb12.story?coll=chi%2Dbusiness%2Dhed

Snippit:

A new wave of corporate bankruptcies is reminding workers and investors that the fallout from the recession isn't over. A major problem remains with the huge debt load U.S. companies took on during the late 1990s, particularly in the telecommunications sector.

Corporations, excluding banks and other financial companies, have more than $4.9 trillion in bond and bank debt, up $1 trillion just since 1998. Now, some analysts believe high corporate debt could keep any economic recovery in low gear for the next few years.

"Unless you see a rapid turnaround in profit growth, [many companies] are going to be financially strapped" by debt, said Paul Kasriel, economist at Northern Trust Securities in Chicago. That, in turn, could limit businesses' ability to spend on new equipment or on workers.

Black Blade: Consumer debt is also at an all time record. It appears that the US could be in for a similar economic and banking collapse Japan-style. Of course Americans have that "Grasshopper" mentality after years of "Womb to Tomb" nanny government. I think that a good majority of Americans are in for an unpleasant wake up call.

Canuck

(02/12/2002; 21:12:56 MDT - Msg ID: 69884)

I jusr read that Prudential link

What does that mean?".....reported a net loss of $506 million, or 69 cents a share. Excluding items, the firm reported an operating profit of 18 cents a share."

Ok, so the firm lost $506 million for profit of 18 cents per share.

I looked at the clear blue sky and it was green.

Chris Powell

(02/12/2002; 21:21:08 MDT - Msg ID: 69885)

A report on GATA's press lunch in Washington

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1005A report on GATA's press lunch at the Washington
Press Club:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1005

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

goldquest

(02/12/2002; 21:30:12 MDT - Msg ID: 69886)

@ Canuck

More Enronitis, I suspect! Note the latest favorite term, "pro-forma." This seems to me, the newest terminolgy for, "cooking the books!"

Carl H

(02/12/2002; 21:36:36 MDT - Msg ID: 69887)

Nat. Gas Thoughts and Questions

First, thank you for all your contributions to this board. I really enjoy them and particularly appreciate your sense of humor.

I have been researching investment opportunities other than gold and silver of late. One area that I am finding quite interesting is Natural Gas in the US/Canada. I was hoping that I could share my thoughts here and get feedback from you or anyone else who would care to comment.

From what I am reading, it seems that in most of the NG producing regions, the amount of drilling needed to get a given amount of gas is going up. However, because of the low NG prices, the producers are high grading to keep the short run costs down. (As is happening with quite a few natural resources.) As the "easy" pickings are used up, the producers will either have to pay to drill deeper, or pay to drill more holes into smaller deposits. Is this perception correct?

Such high grading seems likely to me to produce at least a dip in production at the point when they can no longer keep up with the drilling with the existing stock of drilling rigs and personnel. Should such a production dip occur, it seems likely that the US government will take some socialist approach to fixing the problem. This makes me want to stay away from owning the NG or NG companies. Thoughts?

However, one way or another, they will have to drill like crazy to make up for lost time. That should prove beneficial to the drilling companies. It seems unlikely to me that the socialist hand would reach to the drilling companies since that will probably not improve the drilling efficiency. Thoughts?

Any thoughts about onshore drilling vs offshore drilling and Canadian vs US drilling?

Thanks!!

Carl H

(02/12/2002; 21:37:37 MDT - Msg ID: 69888)

Previous Message

Previous message was referring to Black Blade.

Thanks

Belgian

(02/12/2002; 21:50:54 MDT - Msg ID: 69889)

GOLD

@ Irishman - CM : Don't get confused. The distributor of Gold Bullion for investment with Euro Gold stamped on it also brings coins in circulation with no inscriptions or fiat value on it. Don't get carried away and just see this in FOA's context of preperative FREE TRADE OF PHYSICAL GOLD !
And a first small step/indication of Euro Gold. A good day to you Irishman.

@ Limit Up : No Sir, there will never be a shortage of 1 Kg bars...but...but...one day soon, y'll need truckloads of printed paper to get those glowing Kgs in your hands ! Buy your strow hat in winter. Brrrr, its freezing cold at present.

@ Ski : I'm not saying that silver want appreciate...but is there anyone rushing to get it ? Is silver still percepted as **Precious** as Gold ? I honestly don't think so.
I recently spoke to a reputated specialist in interior decoration. He stated that real silver is substituted with analog white metal amalgams and accepted as good as silver by many rich and famous. Don't know if it is relevant enough ?

@ Pizz #69841 : Glad to hear that you do see things that I think I see (smile). The cheap Gold-Oil-euro thing is indeed flying into increasing turbulence with the geo-politico situation slowly boiling. See Europ/Arab summit in Istambul (Turkey). The euro will find its analog for the previous dollar-oil-standard. UK and now France, demand a *viable* Palestinian state and strive for Peace ! The opposite stance of Europ/US on Arabian affairs is growing towards more polerazation. Underneath all emotions on the atrocities, there is the deep fundamental of OIL and the currency for that Cheap Oil ! The state of Israel was erected for a purpose ! Arabian oil related of course.

Your combination of patience and greed is a good and healthy one. Thanks to this fine forum we help each other in optimazing/timing our acts. And hopefully will be corrected by TG when we drift too far away with our assumptions.
Europ has its Enrons too. Worse...many entrepreneurs are imitating these *get rich fast* sub-culture ! Great !?
One day soon this proliferation of that "sub-culture" will result in *Sauve qui peut* (run while you can).

Voyager

(02/12/2002; 22:04:06 MDT - Msg ID: 69890)

Waverider - Thank You

Wow, what a fascinating article.

Loaning money to the Yakuza is like giving a lamb to a lion and then wanting it back.

Pizz

(02/12/2002; 23:05:38 MDT - Msg ID: 69891)

Belgian

Really appreciate your posts. I probably agree with 80-90% and still haven't studied enough to challenge that 10 to 20.

You add a lot to my perspective because Europeans have what I consider a more mature mind set. I tend to think of the British US relationship similar to a mother bear and her big, half grown unruly cub.

Scary thing over here is the cascading bankrupsies. for every one they announce, my gut tells me there are 100 getting real close.

Amonth ago I gave FOA's senario of an overnite massive gold price increase about a .001%. I'm closer to 5 to 10 % now.

We'll see.

Silver: IMO it will go up. Poor man's gold. Anyone notice that next door they were talking copper coins/pennies today?

Interesting times

Gotta go. Have to prepare for my monthly board meeting tomorrow. A little more shoor the messenger - all red ink again for the 5th straight month. Belgian - got a spare suit of armor I can borrow???

Pizz

Black Blade

(02/12/2002; 23:43:14 MDT - Msg ID: 69892)

RE: CarlH - Natural Gas

There was a time that natural gas was a waste product that was flared off during drilling for Oil. Now drilling for natural gas is a business of its own. Deep drilling for natural gas is uneconomic at current prices ($2.30/Mbtu) - especially in the Gulf Coast region. Much of the current production is forward sold at prices well in excess of $3.00/Mbtu.

There appears to be a substantial supply of NG if the data from the American Gas Association is to be believed. Though the AGA data has come under a lot of criticism for bogus data in the past. The problem is that the AGA represents less than 20% of the industry and the data acquired comes from less than 10% of participating members. They in turn normalize the data and pretend that their statistics represent the NG supply of all industry players.

The lower NG prices have resulted in fewer companies drilling and producing NG. This will come back to haunt many in the not too distant future. The last time drilling activity slowed down many companies simply went out of business and personnel left for other industries. That is happening again. Remember the US economy depends on "Cheap Energy". It won't ever be as cheap as it once was. The price of NG is lower because of unusually warm weather and the New Depression.

There still is drilling activity in cheaper areas such as non-conventional Coal Bed Methane for example (which now accounts for 8% of national supply). However, these wells tend to reach their peaks in about a year after production begins. This year could be quite slow, yet under the current environment of lower production and supply will decrease and a build up of demand will ensue for the coming year. The last thing the US economy needs in an increase in energy prices in the midst of a New Depression.

I currently own a few NG shares (i.e. STR), pipelines (NBP), uranium (USU) and Utilities (i.e. UCU and SO). However, I tend to be more concentrated in some Petroleum limited partnerships (i.e. APU and FGP) and trusts (i.e. DOM and BPT)). If anything, shares are cheap now and drilling will have to increase at some point to provide a steady supply of "Cheap Energy" to kick-start the economy. At this point I am not in any drillers. There are some that specialize in deep drilling offshore (i.e. RIG and DO) and land based drillers (i.e. NBR). There are also petroleum services as well (i.e. HAL and BHI).

Like unhedged Gold shares I think that onshore drillers for NG are likely to have more leverage to the PONG. Onshore is much cheaper and offshore is generally much deeper and more costly. Besides, most offshore drilling is for oil anymore. The PONG will have to rise well above $3.00/Mbtu for a long period of time for offshore NG to be economic.

Anyway, I hope that this helps. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Horatio

(02/12/2002; 23:47:26 MDT - Msg ID: 69893)

Barrick

year 2000 3.7 million oz produced @ 145/oz
year 2001 6.1 million oz produced @ 162/oz

Black Blade

(02/13/2002; 00:01:39 MDT - Msg ID: 69894)

Barrick Compared to Non-Hedgers

http://quote.yahoo.com/q?d=c&c=GG%2C+HGMCY%2C+MDG%2C+GOLD&k=c1&t=1y&s=abx&a=v&p=s&l=on&z=m&q=l
A picture is worth a thousand words. I pity the poor Barrick shareholders (not really). The fact is shareholders of profitable Non-Hedgers win against shareholders of Mega-Hedger Barrick hands down. (see link)

Spartacus

(02/13/2002; 00:22:24 MDT - Msg ID: 69895)

The Euro

http://www.reuters.com/markets_breaking_news_article.jhtml;jsessionid=2JWECEAHNSV4UCRBAEOCFFAKEEARMIWD?StoryID=592028&basketId=US_COMKTNEWS&marketId=1
TOKYO, Feb 13 (Reuters) - The euro is extremely undervalued against the U.S. dollar and could strengthen considerably without harming the European economy, Christian Noyer, the vice-president of the European Central Bank (ECB), said on Wednesday.

Usul

(02/13/2002; 01:08:33 MDT - Msg ID: 69896)

http://www.mbam.qc.ca/presse/a-aluminium.htmlMax Rabbitz (02/12/02; 16:23:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 69853)
pointed out that Kaiser Aluminum filed for bankruptcy protection Tuesday.

It was considered to be as precious as gold when it was first produced in France in the mid-nineteenth century (see link). Only the use of abundant low cost energy in the electrolytic extraction method allowed its cost to be reduced to make it an essential popular commodity metal. With first world production being shut down, it (amongst other things) will quickly transmit the effects of a currency collapse or a rise in the price of oil through to general price inflation.

Belgian

(02/13/2002; 01:48:35 MDT - Msg ID: 69897)

About the *euro*

As a long time "don't know why" (ignorant) euro-critic...I've drastically changed my mind (conviction) on this currency and more so vis � vis the US dollar ! WHY ?

Do realize now that the US$ is a paper-tsunami, flooding all corners of the globe ! And this is to be taken literally. The present massive invasion by US under anti-terror excuse is only possible/succesfull thanks to free distribution of confetti !!! A new range of states and individuals (on top of the previous) are prostituting themselves for that same old piece of green paper to be aqcuired in abondance. Even Slobodan Milosovitch had to be BOUGHT (without -r) into the Den Haag tribunal. After Yugouslavia was literally bombed to the stone age...confetti-rains ($) have been buying every valuable tangible in that region. The Balkan Plan ! And now the eurasia offensive. Dollars....dollars...dollars, buying (?)
everything of present and future worth. This is nothing else than modern plunder.

I don't want to offend american individuals with my vieuw (as a western brother) on this radical dollar-colonialism.
But it is this unbridled dollar-hysteria that is in direct relation with our common interest in Gold.
Dollar and euro relationship has very, very, little to do with respective economic forces. This is pure divertissement from the cruel reality by the financial brotherhood. Yes it is as bad as this !

It is not the "american" as such that is hated. Not even the american lifestyle, but dollar-imperialsm that is so difficult to express by many supressed speachless victims.
A "generous" worthless dollar in exchange for precious tangibles with some illusions as a bonus.

Dear forumers, this is happening today as never before in the past 70 years ! And the reason WHY this dollar imperialism is stepped up...is the simple existance of a possible alternative : the euro-currency with a complete different philosophy behind it ! These euro-wings must be clipped at ANY cost !!! With GOLD being the euro-wings !

Artie Farkle

(02/13/2002; 02:09:46 MDT - Msg ID: 69898)

Furtune Mag.

To AllI just saw the cover of Fortune magazine 2002 Investment Guide in the news stand. It had a picture of a Gold Eagle that took up the whole cover. At the bottom It said something like "Guess what the countries top fund manager is predicting/recamending for 2002?
I like : )

The Invisible Hand

(02/13/2002; 02:16:56 MDT - Msg ID: 69899)

Are the Europeans not clipping their own wings?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1815000/1815891.stm
Belgian,
Goeiendag! Ca va?

You're saying that the reason WHY � dollar imperialism is stepped up...is the simple existence of a possible alternative : the euro-currency with a complete different philosophy behind it ! These euro-wings must be clipped at ANY cost !!! With GOLD being the euro-wings !

Here's an article that says that the news that EU finance ministers had opted not to punish Germany and Portugal for budgetary sloppiness has reinforced the notion that Europe will always put political expediency ahead of economic good sense. That he Stability and Growth Pact is now in effect a dead letter. That it is a Pointless Pact powered by politics That it would however be too straightforward just to say "good riddance" to the Pact. And that what is needed is discipline. It concludes that investors nervously holding Europe's single currency face uncertainty enough in the near future because pesky politics just adds another level of risk.

The political will about which A/TG talk so much does not yet seem to have been translated into actions supporting the euro. I wonder therefore whether the Europeans are not to blame for their own misery? Has Trail Guide perhaps Another view?

Black Blade

(02/13/2002; 02:33:44 MDT - Msg ID: 69900)

Japan's Rating May Be Cut Says Moody's, Citing Deflation Risk

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topsum&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APGneQBT_SmFwYW4n

Snippit:

``Deflation is the foremost challenge facing Japanese authorities,'' Moody's said in a statement that it has put the country's ``Aa3'' rating of yen-denominated debt on review for a possible downgrade. ``The large existing public sector debt, the excessive debt overhang throughout the corporate sector, the weakness of the banking system, and the country's looming demographic transition become even more daunting challenges for policy makers in a deflationary environment,'' the statement said.

Black Blade: Can you say "Depression" in Japanese? I thought you could. No small wonder that Japanese are rushing to buy Gold.

Black Blade

(02/13/2002; 02:54:21 MDT - Msg ID: 69901)

Drop in land gas operations dampens US drilling activity

http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=DriPr&ARTICLE_ID=135328
Snippit:

HOUSTON, Feb. 8 -- US upstream activity continued to deteriorate with a drop in land drilling for natural gas this week, said officials at Baker Hughes Inc., Houston. There were 838 rotary rigs drilling in the US this week, 15 fewer than the previous week and down from 1,137 during the same period a year ago. The number of working land rigs was down 20 to 694 during the week. But the number of rigs working inland waters increased by 3 to 21, while the number of rotary rigs drilling offshore during any part of the week was up 2 to 116 in Gulf of Mexico and 123 in all US offshore waters.

The total number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the US dropped by 16 to 693 this week, said Baker Hughes officials. Those drilling for oil were up 1 to 144, with 1 rotary rig unclassified. Of the rigs still working, 235 were doing directional drilling, 9 more than last week; and 57 were involved in horizontal drilling, a loss of 4 for the week.

Black Blade: Slowing drilling activity for oil and natural gas translates into higher prices longer term that will cap any economic recovery with increased demand.

Black Blade

(02/13/2002; 04:00:39 MDT - Msg ID: 69902)

Wall Street shows ignorance of history in writing off gold

http://globalarchive.ft.com/globalarchive/article.html?id=020213001855&query=gold
An interesting letter to the editor of the Financial Times.

Black Blade

(02/13/2002; 04:08:35 MDT - Msg ID: 69903)

Tocqueville's Hathaway mines for gold

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B4FEA00E2%2DD8FF%2D409C%2D873D%2D21189196992A%7D
Snippit:

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - John Hathaway believes it could be the decade for gold. The Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX) manager sees gold rising to between $400 and $500 an ounce, up from the current $300. "We're still in the very early stages of what could be a very big move for gold," he said.

Factors such as the deteriorating quality of credit in Argentina and Japan, the quality of reported U.S. earnings and the bear market "have been bothering the market aren't going to go away anytime soon," he said.

Black Blade: Meanwhile the Brits are working hard to keep the POG today. Gotta help Captain Tony and First Mate Eddie George look like they're not complete idiots.

Knallgold

(02/13/2002; 04:17:45 MDT - Msg ID: 69904)

Oil

-I read yesterday that Austrians FP� chief J�rg Haider has visited (privately) Saddam Hussein.Topic: possible cooperation of Arabic nations and Europe.Both had good words for themselves.Of course it was mentioned in the article that Bush sees Irak as "axis of evil"

Maybe Haider is the new (more right)generation of EU politicians who will succed the euro harming-incompetent-no-blue-letter-to-Germany/Portugal sozialists.Though I am still careful about Mr. Haider,it seems to me he plays somekind of a doublegame'sometimes pro EU'sometimes agains.Isn't he chief of the "Europaunion" organisation?

-EU/Islam conference this Tuesday and Wednesday (foreign ministers) in Istanbul about a better dialogue between the cultures.70 states participate.

Interesting.

Belgian

(02/13/2002; 04:26:56 MDT - Msg ID: 69905)

@ Invisible

Hoi far away Eurolander ! It is because Euroland in its diversity will always have tensions and frictions...that this euro-currency was differently concepted !
The growth and stability pact will always be under stress...but that's why that Precious Yellow Reserve has been build into the sheme !

Our little Belgian paradise was able to play "absurdistan" for a long time (120% Debt to GDP)...just because we had 1.300 tonnes of the Precious in *RESERVE* !!!
And a little closer to the point : How much of euro-dollars do we need to exchange for having POG exploded and the dollar crashed ???
How many oil-taps has Arabian oil to shut before the world comes to a standstill and the dollar begging ???

Yes we are impressed by military might. But there is nothing wrong with being euro-smart. Dollar and euro are as war and love (schoon h�).

Europ (EMU) NEVER critizises the US$ ! But the US$ constantly tries to clip eurowings ! Ain't this strange ?
And indeed, challenging the floods of dollars in their reserve status is not a sinecure. No false moves permitted.
But these eurowing clippers don't realize that the euro is not ment to fly skyhigh but that the euro-concept is to pusch the dollar as close to the sun as possible...Icarus !

And the dollar is smelling an euro-rat. The eagle doesn't climb closer to the sun. The sun (Gold) is coming close to the dollar (POG increase) !!! Stategy dear Invisible, strategy.

Europeans don't care about the euro versus the dollar.
One euro buys as much as one dollar. With the crucial exception of oil !!! But you know what TG's theory says about that !

GOLD the ultimate weapon in a peacefull war without atrocities and suffering !!!! Gold Power with euroflower.
Don't magnify euro-problems, whilst minimizing dollar-dramas. Groetjes.

Belgian

(02/13/2002; 05:21:36 MDT - Msg ID: 69906)

@ KnallGold

The private Haider/Saddam meeting is probably very insignificant ?
But yesterday's Hard Talk on BBC with Saudi wonder-prince, Al Waheed (name:?) was interesting :
The US/UK never bothered about human rights/abuses in the Arabian Oil region. Europ does and moderate Islamists are sensitive to the euro-approach on that matter and there are signs that Euro/Arabian cooperation and development can go hand in hand with an Arabian kind of democraty.

Europ must avoid any kind of Islamic terror attack on its territory !!! Of utmost importance for not being dragged into the spiral of mutual hatred. Otherwise Europ is forced "to be" with the US unconditionally.
All this has to do with trade and currencies at the end.
Political will...options and choices in the framework of competing currencies in search for value.
We are at the start of something new. New balances and arrangements. The juveniling old continent (Europ) versus the aging new continent (US).

And�ril

(02/13/2002; 06:08:00 MDT - Msg ID: 69907)

Silver and gold and the choice of Rich Man, Poor Man

When ever has such an easy item been so much discussed as though the outcome were somehow equivocal or in doubt?

Silver - the poor man's gold. The poor man's GOLD???

Silver is the poor man's silver. And and a poor choice at that, if his thought is that it will move far on the shoulders of the downtrodden.

Do those in lowest places not look up, perhaps MORE keenly, at the same blue sky and also at those atop moneyed towers? They hunger and they dream, in wisdom they strive to emulate!

Big Money is SMART money. (DUMB money does not grow big!)

This big smart money moves first and earliest, it does not move wrong. In quantity, only so much can move in stealth before it does leave (blaze?) a trail. This the poor and lowly follow eagerly. With smaller steps, yes, and with smaller hands that carry less, true; but follow it they always strive to do!

The big smart money yet today moves discreetly in one direction, leaving behind a faint but growing trail, littered with silver dropping early at 12:1 and now lately being cast away at 60:1 for gold. A faint glimmer that hints of the larger trashing to follow.

In the city park a shabby old man can be seen speaking much, speaking to no one, while he bends to pick remnant ends of cigarettes cast away by the hands of poor and rich alike. You know there is no gain to follow this example, despite his many words. Should it happen that he stoops for the silver, who now here shall hail him as a financial prophet??

Likely, one head only might be bowed for the sorry plight of this wretch. His own. Unaffected, the wider world of men moves briskly on as if with a single-minded purpose - to get AHEAD. Thus sweeping the masses almost uni-directionally in an economic game of follow-the-leader, follow-the-affluent. This way we are, the way it is.

Along this trail the poor man's gold is gold, gold alone, same as with the rich man; measured to each according to his means.

Henri

(02/13/2002; 06:26:44 MDT - Msg ID: 69908)

Belgian

I understand your points and your points are well taken.

Much as it grieves me to say so, and not in any way to stifle the beautiful creativity of your flawless and logical political perspective, but you must know that our nefarious "intelligence" agencies (how many are there now?) over here cannot think for themselves.

I am hoping you have not developed a gift of being able to see into the future. It is very strange, but a condition of our times, that things often happen that we fear, but not always for the reasons we have foreseen. Love is blind.

May God have mercy on us all.

WAC (Wide Awake Club)

(02/13/2002; 06:31:50 MDT - Msg ID: 69909)

@Belgian - Europ must avoid any kind of Islamic terror attack on its territory

An alleged "ISLAMIC" terror attack on European soil does not necessarily have to be conducted by islamic people. Anyone can conduct such an attack and label it as they wish - islamic, christian, fulong, fringe etc.

sector

(02/13/2002; 08:51:43 MDT - Msg ID: 69910)

Big Bank Losses Mount in EuroLand

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT35N9V7NXC&live=true&tagid=IXLI0L9Z1BC
Dresdner posts E424m loss as bad loans mount
By Doug Cameron in London
Published: February 13 2002 13:44 | Last Updated: February 13 2002 14:42

Allianz, the German financial services group, said on Wednesday that its Dresdner Bank unit suffered a E424m ($370m) net loss in the second half of last year as markets slumped and bad-loan charges soared, though signalled that its cost-saving plans were taking effect.

Dresdner's net profits fell to E186m in the 12 months to end December from E1.73bn a year earlier following a first half profit of E610m. The bank cut its dividend by a quarter to E0.70 a share.

The bank lifted its bad-loan charge by more than E1bn in the second half of the year, raising full-year provisions by 19 per cent to E1.89bn. It cited the impact of loans made to mid-sized US companies in the mid-1990s, a portfolio reduced by 20 per cent last year.
+++++++++++++++++++++++
These guys have been short gold in the past...thus they may even more to say as gold rises and more losses happen.

Siochain

(02/13/2002; 09:01:44 MDT - Msg ID: 69911)

MIA

I wish we could have FOA back...and also ORO....focused .....both would be very welcome and appreciated at this point IMO

In reading their old posts, there is much value ...and during these times as I am learning more from many fine posters here...I look also to previous (and still) giants' thoughts

C'mon back ...chat awhile...I'll spring for the coffee and donuts!

Belgian

(02/13/2002; 09:05:53 MDT - Msg ID: 69912)

The Nuclear Power of Gold !

@ WAC : Yep you got the message. I was a bit prudent in suggesting that any "organized" atrocity in Europ will inevitably aim at the "with us or against" warning ! Very chilling stuff. And I still am wondering how 2 (two) towers can implode vertically (90�) with unilateral (plane) impacts from a different angle ?

@ Henri : Yes Sir, am afraid that things could run out of hand. Could it be that the dollar is a bad loser ? Is that a possible reason why currency-confrontation is avoided ?
After all we (vulptures) are circling around the Cheap Arabian oil (and Caspian), aren't we ? And this at a period that economic (financial) collapse is solely avoided by massive dollar printing. Scary or overdone ?

Siochain

(02/13/2002; 09:10:22 MDT - Msg ID: 69913)

Bush orders...Get Saddam...with or w/o allies...just DO IT!!!

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20020213/pl/attack_iraq_dc_1.htmlWednesday February 13 7:04 AM ET
Report: Bush Decides to Oust Saddam Hussein

PHILADELPHIA (Reuters) - President Bush (news - web sites) has decided to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein (news - web sites), and has ordered the CIA (news - web sites), the Pentagon (news - web sites) and other U.S. agencies to devise plans to remove him, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported Wednesday.

The newspaper said no military strike was imminent. But it quoted unnamed U.S. officials as saying Bush had decided that Iraq's nuclear, chemical and biological weapons programs pose too great a threat to U.S. national security for Saddam to remain.

``This is not an argument about whether to get rid of Saddam Hussein. That debate is over. This is how you do it,'' the Inquirer quoted a senior Bush administration official as saying.

The newspaper said the White House was determined to act even if U.S. allies do not help, and is now waiting for government agencies to come up with a combination of military, diplomatic and covert plans aimed at achieving Saddam's ouster.

Escalating U.S. rhetoric on Iraq has alarmed Russia and America's European allies in recent weeks, while causing concern among experts about the political and human costs of a lengthy U.S. military campaign in the Middle East.

But the Inquirer said the CIA recently presented Bush with a plan to destabilize Saddam's well-entrenched regime in Baghdad, through a massive covert action campaign, sabotage, information warfare and significantly more aggressive bombing of the so-called no-fly zones over northern and southern Iraq.

The president was reportedly enthusiastic, and although it could not be determined whether he gave final approval for the plan, the CIA has begun assigning officers to the task, the newspaper reported.

Vice President Dick Cheney (news - web sites) is also expected to tell Middle East leaders about U.S. intentions to get rid of Saddam during a tour of 11 Middle Eastern nations next month, the Inquirer said.

``He's not going to beg for support,'' a senior official was quoted as saying. ``He's going to inform them that the president's decision has been made and will be carried out, and if they want some input into how and when it's carried out, now's the time for them to speak up.''

Spartacus

(02/13/2002; 09:20:07 MDT - Msg ID: 69914)

Inflation concerns

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Economies&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_econ&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_economies&bt=ad_position1_economies∣dle=ad_frame2_economies&s=APGpk6BOORmVkJ3Mg
New York, Feb. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve will raise the benchmark lending rate a percentage point this year to head off inflation as the economy recovers from recession, according to interest rate futures contracts.

"Traders are betting the first increase will come as early as the Fed's June 26 policy meeting, starting a reversal of last year's 11 reductions that drove the rate to a 40-year low of 1.75 percent. Rising consumer confidence, falling unemployment and a pick-up in manufacturing suggest the economy is pulling out of a slump that began in March.

The market feels as though the last few rate cuts by the Fed were excessive'said Edgar Peters, who helps manage $15 billion at PanAgora Asset Management in Boston. The last one or two need to be taken back. Four of the last year's rate cuts, a total of 1.75 percentage points, came after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks throttled consumer spending.

Traders' rate calls have been right recently. In November, interest rate futures showed they were expecting one more rate cut while many economists forecast the central bank would cut rates at least twice more. The traders were correct: The Fed stopped cutting rates after a reduction in December.

Concern about inflation is also showing up in the Treasury bond market. Since Nov. 7, the 5 3/8 percent bond maturing in 2031 has lost more than 10 points, or $100 per $1,000 security, lifting yields 67 basis points to 5.46 percent.

With annual inflation at 1.6 percent, the bond's declines have driven its inflation-adjusted yield up 20 basis points to 3.86 percent, suggesting investors are demanding a bigger cushion to protect against quickening inflation.

Concerns about faster inflation, which erodes the value of fixed-return investments, is driving expectations for rate increases, said John Nyhoff, chief economist and senior vice president at Tokyo-Mitsubishi Futures Inc. in Chicago.

Traders are more concerned about growth implications going forward and, ultimately, the consequences of inflation related to those."

Spartacus: Traders want a rate hike. But will they get it? I don�t think so..

USAGOLD Market Commentary

(02/13/2002; 09:28:18 MDT - Msg ID: 69915)

New York Not Tokyo Leading Price ActionNEWS & VIEWS Update!

Available online to all clientele and prospective clientele, NEWS & VIEWS Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has again been updated.

Read the full commentary and related information here. (access codes required)

New visitors may review these selected portions provided at the Daily Market Report page. You may enjoy our 24-Hour NewsWire provided at this page, also.

Spartacus

(02/13/2002; 09:34:03 MDT - Msg ID: 69916)

Gold

http://www.investavenue.com/article.html?ID=4013Why buy gold when you could buy dollar-denominated assets?

"But what if the Japanese believed that Alan Greenspan had a strong incentive to promote higher US inflation? After all the "honest" or inflation-adjusted return on overnight money in the US has shrunk almost to nothing in the past year. With both corporate and household debt burdens high in the US and with congressional and senate elections coming up in November, the Fed will be under tremendous political pressure to keep the fed funds rate low in order to sow the seeds of future inflation. Bear in mind, the US is the largest debtor nation in the world and that all of its debt is denominated in US dollars. Debtors love inflation and the US central bank can accommodate US debtors' ardor. Maybe this is why Mrs. Watanabe is buying gold. Perhaps Mrs. Jones should ask her husband for some 14k trinkets - as an investment -- this Valentine's Day."

uponroof

(02/13/2002; 10:01:10 MDT - Msg ID: 69917)

GATA, Investigative Reporting and a $1.4 million Payday

http://www.nypost.com/business/kelly.htmWell Enron is now paying off for the reporters who looked into off balance reporting and suspicious activity...

Which brings me to POG...

Wonder what some smart reporter, that does a little digging, could ink for that expose?
********

$1.4M FORTUNE FOR ENRON BOOK

By KEITH J. KELLY

REPORTER HITS BIG TIME:
Fortune's Bethany McLean will collaborate on a book about Enron.

February 13, 2002 -- FORTUNE senior writers Bethany McLean and Peter Elkind have snagged a $1.4 million advance to write about the widening Enron scandal for Penguin Putnam's new Portfolio imprint.

As part of the deal, Fortune's Executive Editor Joe Nocera will work with the two on the project.

None of the trio will be taking a book leave, according to a Fortune spokeswoman, and the magazine will be compensated as part of the deal.

McLean is credited with being one of the first reporters to question the off-balance-sheet deals of Enron back in the March 6, 2001, issue, which hit last February. She has emerged as an overnight celebrity on the Enron beat in recent weeks. Dallas-based Elkind is a veteran investigative writer for Fortune who also penned the 1989 non-fiction book "The Death Shift," about a baby killing nurse.

The deal is one of the biggest auctions in the book world since the Sept. 11 attacks - but far from the only Enron proposal making the rounds.

Doubleday/Broadway is paying an estimated $500,000 for its Enron book to Texas Monthly writer Mimi Schwartz. She is teaming up with an "undisclosed collaborator" - widely believed to be Enron top exec turned whistleblower Sharon Watkins.

At least four other proposals are said to be making the rounds, leading some industry sources to speculate that there may already be too many in the pipeline. Adrian Zackheim, publisher of Penguin Putnam's Portfolio imprint, which acquired the book from the Fortune trio, said, "Like Watergate, the Enron collapse will beget a compelling journalistic narrative that breaks through the chatter and defines the story . . . There may well be books in the future from Enron participants, like there were books from Dean, Haldeman, Erlichman, and the rest. But this is unquestionably THE big breakthrough book, the book we most wanted to publish."
********

Operative

(02/13/2002; 10:11:28 MDT - Msg ID: 69918)

A most welcome pause...

The past two years have found both my days and nights filled with the ever pressing challenge, "can you not follow in the footsteps of giants". With the daily wisdom garnered from the thoughtfull opinions of this web site and a copy of Another's Trail Guide, I have attempted to traverse the path. Today, I pause to write a Thank You to the members of this forum. Many have been the moments when I was able to gain insight and wisdom for my journey. A word of heart felt apprecitation also goes out to the owner/operater of this web site. A small order for your wares is soon forthcoming, my fear of "mail order" overcome by your generous hosting of this site. In two years I have removed myself from the debt game, and while it required some extra effort and sacrifice I now enjoy a peace offered by this freedom. To Another, I say Thank You for the education. At first your trail was difficult, hard to follow at times. Perhaps it was my lack of understanding, to be sure there were times of doubt. The recent events and times have found the trail easier to follow, the footprints appearing more defined, less often filled with sand. In recent weeks not only have the footprints been easy to see, they are fresh, with the markings of bootprints clearly visible. Today I reflect, rest and restablish my bearings. Tomorrow with increased focus and determination I will continue to follow the footprints.

Operative

Cavan Man

(02/13/2002; 10:20:08 MDT - Msg ID: 69919)

Here's the retail sales scoop (note gasoline @ + 5.1%)

Wednesday February 13 10:27 AM ET

Retail Sales Excluding Cars Up in January
By Jonathan Nicholson

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales slipped modestly in January as auto sales fell from lofty December levels, but sales aside from cars posted their biggest surge since March 2000, aided by higher prices at the gas pump, the Commerce Department reported on Wednesday.

Retail sales dipped 0.2 percent overall in January, but were up a larger-than-expected 1.2 percent outside the automotive sector, the department said.

The strength in purchases aside from car sales, which had been expected to weaken as automakers cut back on financing incentives, bodes well for an economy many analysts believe is recovering from recession.

Sales in December were revised upward to a 0.2 percent rise overall and a 0.7 percent gain excluding cars. The department had previously reported declines of 0.1 percent in both categories.

While gains were seen in many retailing sectors in January, the overall number was boosted by a 5.1 percent increase in gasoline station sales, largely the result of higher prices at the pump. Excluding gasoline, retail sales were actually down 0.6 percent in the month.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected sales to fall 0.3 percent overall in January, but rise by 0.4 percent when autos were excluded.

Jade Zelnik, an economist with Greenwich Capital Markets, said the January report should soothe concerns the economy could fall back into recession if consumers falter.

``The January data, along with the revisions, refute the notion that the consumer has been merely plodding along,'' he said in a research note to clients.

``This greatly enhances the odds that a sustainable economic recovery is in the process of emerging.''

Economists watch retail sales closely, as consumer spending on goods and services makes up two-thirds of economic activity. The resilient stance of consumers, who continued to spend moderately in the fourth quarter, offset weak investment by businesses in new plants and equipment and fueled an unexpected rise in U.S. gross domestic product, which increased at a 0.2 percent annual rate.

With signs the recession that began in March has bottomed out, policymakers at the Federal Reserve have taken a more cautious stance on interest rates. After cutting rates 11 times to 40-year lows in 2001, the Fed held rates steady at its January meeting.

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan is to offer an updated assessment of the economy's health when he appears before a Capitol Hill panel later this month to deliver the central bank's twice-a-year report to Congress.

Tim O'Neill, chief economist at Bank of Montreal/Harris Bank in Toronto, said the January retail report was ``better than expected, but on balance not dramatically better.''

Within January's report, the gain in gas station sales was the largest since a 5.5 percent increase in February 2000. Purchases at department stores were up 2.0 percent and sales of building materials and garden equipment were up 2.9 percent.

Offsetting those gains was a 4.3 percent drop in auto dealer sales, the biggest decline since September, when attacks on New York and Washington depressed all retail activity dramatically. Sales at bars and restaurants were off by 2.0 percent in January.

WAC (Wide Awake Club)

(02/13/2002; 10:52:26 MDT - Msg ID: 69920)

Venezuela's currency in freefall - down 25% today

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1818000/1818558.stmVenezuela's currency has plummeted almost 25% to about 990 bolivars to the dollar after the government scrapped five-year-old exchange rate controls.

Cavan Man

(02/13/2002; 12:56:27 MDT - Msg ID: 69921)

Retail Sales Numbers Report

A classical education uses the "TRIVIUM" method or organization. This consists essentially of presenting much factual information in the "grammar" stage (K-4); next, logical organization of the facts is taught (interpretive skills and reasoning etc.); lastly, in the 8-12 grade stage, rhetoric is taught. The trivium is no longer used in the US system (public anyway). Today, we do not teach with a language based curriculum but rather, with an image based curriculum. My point is that due to the overall poor quality of the education product sold in this country, the citizenry, individually and collectively, are no longer able to think critically. With the media thinking for them vis a vis sound bytes and "headline news", responsibility and authority for information comprehension are transferred to the media. Consequently, we experience intellectual death in addition to making very poor investment decisions. This problem is present on a large scale in private educational institutions as well.

Black Blade

(02/13/2002; 13:17:45 MDT - Msg ID: 69922)

Profitless prosperity

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B9DA21BAF%2DEDF6%2D485C%2DB0B7%2DEEE6611CDCB9%7D&siteid=mktw
Snippit:

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- There is good news and bad news about January's retail sales. The good news is that lots of customers apparently did lots of buying. The bad news is that retailers had to slash prices fiercely to generate these sales.

Black Blade: This does not look like much of a recovery to me. As long as Wall Street spins the data and ignores the danger signs, it should be easy to suck in the masses. The US equities markets have surged higher the last three trading sessions on very light volume. In other words - most investors are content to sit this one out. When investors look at the "bottom line" over the next couple of "earnings seasons" they will very likely get frustrated and bail out of the markets en masse. More accounting problems are coming to light and the debt load for corporations and consumers is growing. In light of currency problems around the World such as in Argentina, Japan, and now Venezuela and soon Brazil, (even China may devalue) we should see more buying of hard assets like Gold and Silver.

sector

(02/13/2002; 13:19:08 MDT - Msg ID: 69923)

Japan Bonds Reel Under Moody's Rating Drop

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3U28ZGNXC&live=true&tagid=IXLI0L9Z1BC
Japanese bond sell-off follows Moody's warning
By Bayan Rahman in Tokyo
Published: February 13 2002 18:03 | Last Updated: February 13 2002 18:08

Foreign investors last month sold a net �1,236bn of Japanese bonds, seven times the amount in December and a level not seen since June 1999. The sell-off reflected fears about a possible downgrade of Japan's rating, deflation, and the banks' non-performing loans (NPL) problem.

That anxiety was heightened on Wednesday after Moody's Investors Service warned it was reviewing Japan's rating with a view to downgrading it by as much as two notches to A2, possibly as early as next month.

A two-notch downgrade would knock Japan out of the G7 league and place it at the same level as Latvia and Greece, and below Botswana and the Bahamas.

This would lead some foreign fund managers to preclude JGBs from their portfolios. Under the rules of the Bank for International Settlements rules, to be implemented in 2005, single-A rated bonds will carry a 20 per cent risk weighting, meaning that banks will have to set aside reserves to cover the risk of these assets. This would not affect domestic banks.

The example of Italy nine years ago, bodes ill for a swift recovery by Japan from single A status. Italy was the last G7 country whose domestic rating fell to single A, in 1993. It took Italy more than three years to regain its Aa rating.

Furthermore, Moody's warned that the pace of rating reviews and changes could pick up. "Since we last downgraded (to Aa3) in December the situation has deteriorated and the pace of deterioration, from the point of view of credit worthiness, has accelerated," said Vincent Truglia, co-head of sovereign risk at Moody's.
++++++++++++++++++++
Japan continues to sink lower toward Eddie George's[BOE] "Abyss".

Henri

(02/13/2002; 13:33:41 MDT - Msg ID: 69924)

Operative

I wish you joy in your newfound freedom and restful nights!
Congratulations on your perseverance and fortitude. The footsteps ARE much cleare when you are out from under the bankers shadow.

sector

(02/13/2002; 13:45:04 MDT - Msg ID: 69925)

Bad News for Microsoft and the Other ISO Surfers

http://www.RiskNews.net/
Senators move to block preferential employee stock options tax treatment

13 February - Four US senators will today introduce a new bill, the 'Ending the Double Standard for Stock Options Act', that will require US corporations to treat employee stock options in the same way in both their tax returns and financial statements.
The bill comes in reaction to a finding last month by a Washington-based tax policy group � Citizens for Tax Justice � that Enron avoided paying $625 million in taxes between 1996 and 2000 through the use of employee stock options and other preferential tax accounting devices.

The bill's sponsors are Democratic senators Carl Levin of Michigan and Dick Durbin of Illinois, and Republican senators John McCain of Arizona and Peter Fitzgerald of Illinois.

According to senator Levin's office, US corporations currently enjoy an accounting 'double standard', in which they can deduct the expense of the difference between the stock option excercise price and the underlying stock at the date of excercise on their tax returns, without reporting the expense on their financial statements.

Under the new bill, stock option tax deductions would be limited to stock option expenses reported on financial statements.

The new bill proposes no changes in accounting standards for stock options. That issue is currently under review by the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB), which is scheduled to release an exposure draft on the matter in Q4 2002. In a September meeting, the IASB agreed in principle that stock options issued for employee compensation and as payment to other firms should be recognised as expenses on a company's financial statements. Since September, the IASB has been focusing on how to measure stock option fair values.
Gallagher Polyn
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
A boat load of high tech wizards manipulated balance sheets with this loophole including Microsoft and IBM.

Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD

(02/13/2002; 14:29:35 MDT - Msg ID: 69926)

$14.95 (plus tax) in bookstores. Get it here for just $5.95 ! ($3 S&H)

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"Gold will play a critically important role in American investment portfolios in the years to come. This book provides investors a basic education on private gold ownership from one of the nation's top experts." --Rep. Ron Paul, Texas, U.S. House of Representatives

Please Remember: It is your purchase from Centennial Precious Metals / USAGOLD that nourishes these pages.

Ag Mountain

(02/13/2002; 14:56:03 MDT - Msg ID: 69927)

Thanks Anduril!

Your message 69907 was brilliant in its clarity! I'll be changing my ways thanks to a new understanding gained from your post. Lots of heavy silver will soon be left behind as I lighten my load for gold instead!!!!

Boilermaker

(02/13/2002; 15:03:11 MDT - Msg ID: 69928)

Sword Rattling

This is my first post on this forum after a long time of lurking and learning. I'm not a newbie goldbug, started in 1987 accumulating and now fully committed to real and shiny assets.
I've got some questions that you might help me with.
Have any of you on this forum considered a possible connection with the Bush administration's announced attack on the Iraqi regime and the US monetary/economic meltdown that most of us expect? Could MBA Bush see (or have been told about) the incredible risk posed to our economy by decades of monetary abuse, corruption and debt ala the Japanese example? Could Bush have seen the dual purpose of a legitimate but preemptive war with Iraq as a way to ameliorate the coming depression? It seems to me that a larger war footing enables the US to take extreme measures to deal with emergencies whether they be terrorist, military or ecomomic. Does this sound plausible?

I have been a Bush supporter and believe he is on the right course but I would prefer to see him deal with each problem, Iraq and the economy, on an individual basis. Tell us the real story behind the economy and what's needed to fix it and go after Saddam if he's a real threat.

Many thanks for all of the wonderful learning opportunities that appear every day on this forum.

Bulldog

(02/13/2002; 16:22:42 MDT - Msg ID: 69930)

Boilermaker

WelcomeI think anything is plausible. As a foreigner, I don't think much of Dubya, but I didn't think much of his predecessor, Wild Bill.
Can you imagine Dubya's surprise when he found out that there really wasn't any surplus. He hasn't been in office long enough to know what you know simply by lurking on this chat line not enough hours in the day to take in all the information. He's a big player, but does what he is told.
Our boys at war deflect attention from the ills of our society.
When an ex-partner of junk bond king Mike Milliken can incorporate Global Crossing in 1997, give political contributions of only $34,000 in 1998 and then "plasters Washington with money thereafter..." makes oodles of $
and then by 2002 goes bankrupt, where does it start. I think the state has to jail some of these folks at some point. It really isn't possible because our elected representatives have been funded by the culprits.
Perhaps you will share other views with us in the future.

Belgian

(02/13/2002; 16:42:05 MDT - Msg ID: 69931)

@ Boilermaker / All

Siochain's Bush/Saddam link is another piece of shocking rhetoric. This additional War-language went already that far that no anti-climax (peace-settlement) is possible anymore.
The WTC-atrocity is most probably (unfortunately) the start and pretext of a dis-proportionate retaliation program with much more content than "bringing to justice" alone ! The atrocities inflicted on americans is being "framed" with a bizar culture (cultivation) of convenient revenge (heroism).

There is a reason, a plan and a program. A multitude of reasons, different plans and flexible programs. All wars have similar motivations and variable outcomes. This war is a continuation of the interrupted/unfinished 1990 Gulf war.
The Israel/Palestine Un-will is evidence for desired escalation. The base-building in Pakistan is a fulcrum.
US/Russian compromis functions as decompression...etc.

The empire (US) is on the move ! Soon we will find out how drastically it will advance. A substituting war-economy as a classic reminder of history. An attack of Irak (Jemen-?) is the confirmation of an encircling maneuver of Saudi Arabia.

Oil - Gold - the dollar/euro - stockmarkets - global economy ...will come under "boiling" stress (cfr. Gulf war). Human species can't live too long with peace/harmony and prosperity. Will this escalate in WW-III or in another contained territorial conquest for the US/UK empire ?
Will the winner distribute "cheap" oil as compensation to the passive allies (Europ/China/Japan) ?

All this plausible un-certainties can only be countered with Physical Gold in Possession as a refuge and self-protection for the unknown.

Boilermaker : I'm very, very pessimistic on the nearby future. And a second invasion of Irak will certainly be one step too far. Europ doesn't feel threathened by Irak or any other Arabian state. This to answer eventual questions on "alternatives" to war. Two WW within 30 years is more than enough. Regards.

Pizz

(02/13/2002; 16:55:41 MDT - Msg ID: 69932)

Boilermaker

Re: Bush and the economy: Yes, he knows. So does every Chairman and CEO. The economy/financial data is how they measure success or failure. As loose and agressive as all financial reporting is, there is still a "method to the maddness" and all heads of state/companies are "fully" informed of the economic issues facing their organizations.

War:
Based upon what we here know and suspect, i.e. a deflationary depression, this country has had only one modern day example (the 30's) and it took WWII to pull us out of that one. You can formulate your own conclusion as to Mr. Bush's motives for the war, but my guess is that the primary purpose of it originally was to secure more oil in the Caspian so as to lessen the ME's threat of an embargo/blackmail to our economy. Economic necessity for jump starting our economy will be one benefit for further escalation of a task that was probably going to have to be done anyway IMHO.

As for Bush to be honest about the state of the economy?

Imagine you own a company with many thousands of people employed. Your company is in trouble and if business does not improve, you may have to declare bankrupsy in 6 months. If you let your employees, therefore customers, suppliers, etc. know, it will be a self-fulfulling prophesy, as all your good employees leave, your customers find new suppliers, and your vendors/banks cut off credit.

Now, do you tell everyone the truth, or keep your mouth shut and try to fix it?

Pizz

TownCrier

(02/13/2002; 17:08:15 MDT - Msg ID: 69933)

"Lightning in the night" and the irresistible power of market forces, voters

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020213/n13358490_1.htmlThese reconstructed excerpts from today's Reuters article will help reinforce some old points being made here at the forum.

-----------NEW YORK, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Standard & Poor's welcomed Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's move to float the bolivar currency...

...The South American petroleum exporter has been hurting for cash since oil prices have drifted lower in recent months. Adding to the angst, investors have shied from Venezuela amid growing discontent over the president's authoritarian style and leftist agenda....

...Chavez offered an olive branch to his foes on Tuesday.

"Let's hope that I can sheathe my sword," the firebrand paratrooper-turned-president said in an unusual conciliatory televised speech in which he announced new economic initiatives....

...Then came Chavez's surprise announcement on Tuesday that Venezuela would float the bolivar, abandoning one of the last foreign exchange band systems in Latin America, and reduce state spending by more than one fifth....

...In its first day as a free-floating currency, Venezuela's bolivar plunged 19 percent on Wednesday, to end at 980.5 per dollar.-------------------

When they got out of bed this morning, I'll bet the real savers in Venezuela were very glad they had been saving gold and not bolivars. The recommendation extends to everyone living anywhere that paper money is found. (i.e., everywhere.) A sudden currency adjustment need not diminish the purchasing power of your accumulated wealth if your wealth is indeed real, such as gold.

Standard & Poor's lead Venezuela analyst, Graciana del Castillo, said of the development, "If the president announces these economic measures but is not willing to have a dialogue with the opposition, the process is going to be very difficult. We know that in order to adopt tough economic measures the government needs support from the population."

The post-Bretton Woods realignments in the international monetary system continue, moving toward a more stable ***market-based*** phenomenon of floating paper, flying gold.

R.

Trapper

(02/13/2002; 17:55:29 MDT - Msg ID: 69934)

AG Mountian

I also read Andruil's post but I think he missed his own point. Silver through much of history setted at 16 oz silver to buy 1 oz. gold. Andruil is right that that ratio is way out of balance today and means that gold is way over priced or silver is way underpriced. I vote the latter. Now who recently bought 25% of the above ground silver....oh yes Warren Buffet! I think we could all classify him as a rich man. Even our host is selling silver. I feel that old silver coins have a very good chance in any goverment decree making gold illegal, and the premuim is almost at melt for a while. My choice is to own some of both at 16-1. Live small.
RJ

Canuck

(02/13/2002; 18:00:16 MDT - Msg ID: 69935)

Rising stockmarkets

I see the Venezuela SM had a great day:

Venezuela IBC ^IBC 1:45pm 6692.45 +622.36 +10.25% Charts

Now we see the Nikkei doing the same. Is this the same phenomona that we saw in Argentina just before collapse?

slingshot

(02/13/2002; 18:00:38 MDT - Msg ID: 69936)

Trapper Msg# 69934

16-1 ratioUsing the same plan.
Slingshot

Belgian

(02/13/2002; 18:15:12 MDT - Msg ID: 69937)

Wars >> dollars >> Gold

Tlaga J.N. 1997 "We have been had " :
WWII - It may come across as a shock to many americans, but it is a documented fact that the first wave of major purchases of US monetary Gold by foreign central banks was financed with....Marshall Plan dollars (=US$ confetti distributed to rebuild war devastated Europ)

US Gold reserves at Fort Knox reached their all time peak on sept.21 - 1949 (Kondratieff-cycle-start)with 21.800 tonnes at 35$/ounce. By june 30 - 1973 only 8.200 tonnes remained, while Gold stock of Germany, Switzerland, France, Italy, Holland, Belgium, England and Japan reached 15.600 tonnes (Thanks).

The present acceleration in confetti production/printing, Gold suppression (shifts-?) and possible war (WWIII) is frightening similar to what already happened before (WW-I and II). The dollars spend on the Gulf war were recuperated/compensated, with Special Kuwaiti/Saudi cheap oil deals. Will it work a second time ? Even a Gold deal was in play. Kuwaiti 80 tonnes for London (1999-WA-abyss).
How much billions of dollars has Bush received recently for warfare with popular pay rise for soldiers included ?

A contracting economy with less tax to collect and more spending, together with a POO slowly increasing ! Brrrrr.

Chris Powell

(02/13/2002; 18:28:06 MDT - Msg ID: 69938)

GATA conference on C-SPAN2 at 4 a.m. Thursday

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1006C-SPAN2 has scheduled for 4 a.m. Eastern time
Thursday a broadcast of GATA's Washington
conference Tuesday.

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1006

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

USAGOLD

(02/13/2002; 18:48:31 MDT - Msg ID: 69939)

Randy. . ..

Great comment. . ..

Floating paper. Flying gold. Opposing sides of the same coin!

slingshot

(02/13/2002; 18:49:01 MDT - Msg ID: 69940)

Belgian Msg# 69937

War,Gold, DollarsYou have presented some chilling statements.

I think that Bush is not getting any money from other nations to go this route on the war on terrorism. He is just going to print what he needs. Caspian oil to offset Saudi oil could be a part of his plan for the recovery of the economy but I think it is bigger than that. Consider TPTB are buying gold at a very low price and they will have their hands in the oil market any way this plays out. The destruction of the world economy will play the most important part for it effectively stops the feeding of mankind. How do you feed your family when you have no money in the bank. Or your money is worthless. Or just simply you need so much money to buy food.
I do not like the looks of it also. Just can not put my finger on it. Belgian, can you imagine food ration cards?
You may find me a bit paranoid, but I tell you something stinks. Maybe people do not think BIG for they would be afraid of what they see. Gold will be a big part in the game and having some may be wise. We shall see, Yes?

Slingshot

Black Blade

(02/13/2002; 18:53:09 MDT - Msg ID: 69941)

Market Wrap Up - Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

Pro Forma Economics

This new economic reporting is a lot like the way earnings are reported by the financial media and hyped by Wall Street. By taking out write-offs, big expenses and big bath charges or investment losses, earnings were actually up. So we now have pro forma economic reports. Today, if the numbers don't look good, take out what doesn't look good and rearrange the report to fit the spin. During the fourth quarter when auto sales rose due to zero-percent financing, we counted auto sales in retail reports because they made the numbers look good. Now when auto sales go down, we remove them from the report to make retail sales look better. That way we always have reports that portray a sunny disposition for the financial markets.

Black Blade: The use of Pro Forma is getting out of hand in face of the accounting scandals that are pervasive on Wall Street. Pro Forma earnings for PE ratio calculations make even the most basis economic data suspect. The actual true value of the market indices (based on historical PE averages) if true net earnings as of today's close were to be used would be: DOW at 4823; NASDAQ at 420; and S&P 500 at 412. The US equities markets are grossly overvalued. Many investors are being fattened up for the kill. Earnings are falling hard and fast for most equities. It will get very ugly. Wait until the foreign investors bail out and take their cash back home (especially Japan). All the spin and Pro Forma in the World won't disguise the markets ugly ducklings.

A very good article well worth reading (see link)

R Powell

(02/13/2002; 19:01:31 MDT - Msg ID: 69942)

Anduril's gold, but not silver

Your 69907 post mentioned that the POS vs POG ratio now stands at 60 to 1. Such historical ratios have always been suspect, I believe, when used with gold which for years had a "fixed" price. However, 60 to 1 is now with us. Does anyone know what the estimated ratio of gold to silver is based upon each one's aboundance in nature?
I was struck with your annoyance or hostility toward silver especially with you're demeaning it's "Poor man's gold" nickname. Nothing else of substance is offered other than the 60/1 ratio but I suspect you have more reasons for your disdain of silver. I'm curious of all things golden or silver. May I ask what these reasons might be?
Thanks
Rich

R Powell

(02/13/2002; 19:11:56 MDT - Msg ID: 69943)

GATA, another viewing time??

Cousin Chris, does C-Span have any other scheduled times for airing? Maybe a repeat over the weekend, during hours when I'm alive?
Thanks for all the excellent efforts! Hopefully, after the world becomes knowledgeable and the good fight has been fought and won, you may use those editing talents you possess to compile a comprehensive accounting of your journey.
Rich

Black Blade

(02/13/2002; 19:16:19 MDT - Msg ID: 69944)

Uranium Fuel Maker USEC to Cut Jobs

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/020213/usec_job_cuts_2.html
Snippit:

Uranium Fuel Maker USEC to Cut 440 Jobs at Ohio Plant As It Consolidates Shipping Operations

Black Blade: Glowing "Bones" to the growing "Bone Pile".

Black Blade

(02/13/2002; 19:22:43 MDT - Msg ID: 69945)

Herman Miller Announces Job Cuts

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/020213/herman_miller_job_cuts_1.html
Another Round of Job Cuts at Southwest Michigan Furniture Maker

Snippit:

ZEELAND, Mich. (AP) -- The latest round of job cuts at furniture maker Herman Miller brings to 2,800 the number of positions eliminated in a just more than a year.

Black Blade: Business is bad - so off to the "Bone Pile".

Black Blade

(02/13/2002; 19:27:34 MDT - Msg ID: 69946)

Dana Corp. to Cut 11,000 Jobs

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020213/ap_on_bi_ge/earns_dana_2
Snippit:

TOLEDO, Ohio - Dana Corp. on Wednesday reported a wider $298 million loss for the fourth quarter as the auto parts maker continues to implement a restructuring plan that includes the elimination of 11,000 jobs.

Black Blade: Looks ugly as thousands are sent off to the growing "Bone Pile". Definitely going to get worse. Get outta debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, get a food storage and basic goods program started, and have enough cash on hand for several months expenses.

USAGOLD

(02/13/2002; 19:33:05 MDT - Msg ID: 69947)

CB2. . .The New York Yankees of Ski Competition

CB. . .They just ran a profile on Bode Miller (they're airing the combined). It seems that Bode and a fellow American skier spent much time in the Austrian Alps with the "hardy" Austrians as they described your countrymen. Bode of course was hoping something might rub off (which apparently something has). They called the Austrians the New York Yankees of ski competition -- the relevance of which you might recall from your Wall Street days. Anyway, I can see why you told me to keep an eye on Bode having just made the down hill run in a fashion only "One-Ski" Rahlves might appreciate. I can also see what's going on between Bode and Austria -- it seems your countrymen have adopted him as one of their own. What a kick! Enjoying the skiing and thought you might appreciate the story. Looks like the Norwegians are going to be tough in the combined with Austria making the challenge. . . . .

Black Blade

(02/13/2002; 19:36:40 MDT - Msg ID: 69948)

NYC Mayor Bloomberg to Cut 7,000 Jobs

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020213/ap_on_re_us/new_york_mayor_budget_2
Snippit:

NEW YORK (AP) - Mayor Michael Bloomberg's new spending plan for the city includes cuts of $1.8 billion and the elimination of 7,000 jobs, about a sixth of those in the police force.

Black Blade: Open season in NYC? Blue "Bones" off to the "Bone Pile". That's what happens when not enough parking tickets aren't given out - loss of revenue.

USAGOLD

(02/13/2002; 19:46:32 MDT - Msg ID: 69949)

Welcome. . ..

Want to roll out the welcome mat for all the new people posting of late. . . . Enjoy seeing the new faces, new viewpoints. Anybody up for a price guessing contest??

We'll need a proposal on this and some seconds.

The good Wizard is waiting in the wings. If we get general approval for a contest, we'll let the Wiz announce the rules. Maybe shoot for the close next Friday??

What's the consensus?

Black Blade

(02/13/2002; 19:47:13 MDT - Msg ID: 69950)

Venezuela Currency Falls 19 Percent

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020214/ap_on_bi_ge/venezuela_economy_34
Snippit:

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) - Venezuela's currency plunged against the dollar Wednesday as President Hugo Chavez abandoned exchange controls to try to stem capital flight and restore investor confidence in the ailing economy.

The bolivar fell by 19 percent, closing at 980.50 to the dollar compared to 792.50 on Friday, the last trading day. Economists have said the bolivar was overvalued by as much as 30 percent.

Black Blade: Just as I and others speculated on last week. And the Brazilian Real looks to be next on the chopping block. Already Ecuador has had problems and they decided to "dollarize" just as Panama did. There are also rumblings out of Peru and Colombia that they may devalue as well. For the people's sake, I hope they have Gold or Silver. "Interesting Times"

Mr Gresham

(02/13/2002; 19:50:57 MDT - Msg ID: 69951)

Siochain (02/13/02; 09:01:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 69911)

Second that, Siochain. We make a circle here, as everyone contributes their best. They, FOA and ORO, are two of the strong links in our chain, and they belong with us. The combination of EACH of us learning more day by day, AND events moving forward, makes their absence regrettable. The opportunity to share these experiences together, once lost, might not be recoverable.

Let a clarion sound from the Tower, seeking their return. Better yet, put up a QUESTIONS page to post our own wonderings, after reading their deep contributions. I know I have many...

slingshot

(02/13/2002; 20:00:14 MDT - Msg ID: 69952)

contest

consensesDo It. Go Wizard.

Slingshot

Black Blade

(02/13/2002; 20:02:09 MDT - Msg ID: 69953)

USAGOLD - Price Guessing Contest

I'll second that.

Pizz

(02/13/2002; 20:07:02 MDT - Msg ID: 69954)

Contest

Yes

Chris Powell

(02/13/2002; 20:09:46 MDT - Msg ID: 69955)

C-SPAN and GATA

I'm not sure whether C-SPAN will rebroadcast
GATA's Washington conference. I'll be happy
if the conference gets broadcast even once,
for we'll be able to make tapes and
distribute them if we can cover the cost.

USAGOLD

(02/13/2002; 20:24:56 MDT - Msg ID: 69956)

OK. . . It's a Contest!

I have sent a messenger to the Misty Mountains to summon the Wizardrous One for the momentous contest about to occur. (He gets pre-occupied at times as we all know) I am certain that the Hobbits are "Simply Delighted" with the Forum's approval. They love these events. Marie will be checking the Royal Vaults in the morning to set aside the prize. . . . .This time we will make it the lucky French Angel. Good luck to all.

Gandalf, oh Wizardrous member of this fabled Table, its all yours. No guesses please until the Wiz makes it official.

- - - - - --

Wow. Bode snuck in for the silver with a great run.

The Invisible Hand

(02/13/2002; 20:31:45 MDT - Msg ID: 69957)

***** 8,752 *****

Contest - What contest?Here's my entry

jinx44

(02/13/2002; 21:39:41 MDT - Msg ID: 69958)

Don't be too hard on Anduril.......

THC, FOA and Jethro Tull can be a temporarily lethal combination.

Respectfully,

Cor Tauri

(02/13/2002; 21:46:34 MDT - Msg ID: 69959)

silver gold ratio and savings

Something I have been thinking about lately is how much silver in relation to gold should a person hold.
It has been brought up sort of, so I thought I might beg for some advise from some the posters here.
First some presumptions:
1 Gold has value and always will
2 Gold is real wealth
3 Silver has value and always will
4 Silver is real wealth
5 Other than in an actual trade where metal wealth is exchanged for some good or service, the only way to value or "price" gold is in terms of silver and the only way to price silver is in terms of gold.
6 There is now way to KNOW what the "correct" ration of gold / silver is in terms of fiat.
7 although I understand the arguments that silver will outperform gold, I reject those thoughts at the moment, it is speculation, and I am interested in a generalized rule. I might depart from it based on the soundness of the silver fish argument, but this thinking now is to develop the general rule.
8 I don't care about Warren Buffet

Question: based on the above presumptions, what is the proper ratio of silver to gold a person should hold.

I am currently thinking that the current price ration is about 68 ag to 1 au, but the current ration that I can actally buy at is about 60 to 1.
I don't know nor do I care if that means that silver is cheap in terms of gold.
I don't pretend to know what direction that ratio will trend in, and I don't care.

If I buy 60 ounces of silver for each of gold, and the ratio changes in one direction or another, then I rebalance my metal holdings to reflect the new ratio, am I always going to be losing a bit or gaining a bit or breaking even.
I am looking to always break even, if I want to speculate the direction the ratio will move in I can per-emptively buy to reflect the ratio I predict, but in terms of outright wealth protections is buy in amounts reflected by the current au price / ag price what I am looking for?
It happens that buying at the current price ratio will always mean buying equal dollar amounts of each ag and au. This seems profound to me, but lots of things seem profound to me.

I'm not the smartest bean in the pod, and I just can't determine if my logic is sound. Some minds are good at this, and I know a number of them are here. I'm looking for a general rule to tell my sons so that they don't squander what, I am by the chance of the times accumulating.

We live in an extraordinary time, when people like me can accumulate an amount of wealth that in anyother time would be unattainable. My descendants will not live in such a time. Unless they are far more ambitions and intelligent and lucky than I, they will be unable to accumulate what I am able to now.

ski

(02/13/2002; 22:01:02 MDT - Msg ID: 69960)

Short read ... Ted Butler "Letter to the CFTC"

http://www.butlerresearch.com/letter-to-cftc.html
Follow the above link to read a short letter that Ted Butler sent to the CFTC.

....."four or less traders held a net short position of 32,677 futures contracts or the equivalent of 163,385,000 ounces of silver. ... Amazingly, 163 million ounces is more than all the known & verified silver bullion in the world."

.................

If silver makes larger percentage gains than gold, which will be more precious?

Carl H

(02/13/2002; 22:24:05 MDT - Msg ID: 69961)

Black Blade: Question

What is "Base Gas" in the context of undergound natural gas storage?

ski

(02/13/2002; 22:33:14 MDT - Msg ID: 69962)

Cor Tauri #69959

Cor Tauri ... from your post

#7. Although I UNDERSTAND the arguments that silver will outperform gold, I reject those thoughts at the moment ....

I'm sorry but I cannot get past your unusual and illogical statement. IMHO your first move should be to resolve the question in your mind of which precious metal will move the most. Use all of the facts that you are presently aware of. And, then act on your own personal conclusion.

I am reminded of quotation from the late Jim Blanchard. "The smartest investors buy when an investment is cheap. It sounds silly to point out such an obvious investment truth. But history shows that only a very elite (and small) group of investors has ever been able to apply this simple wisdom to the markets."

Black Blade

(02/13/2002; 22:47:06 MDT - Msg ID: 69963)

But It Can't Happen Here!

Oh yes it can. We see the economic problems around the world - insolvent banks in Japan, Bank holidays in Argentina, and currency exchanges closed in Venezuela. Why in hell would anyone think that these problems couldn't happen here?

It already has happened here (in the US). There were runs on the banks when the Market crashed in 1929 and throughout the Great Depression prompting bank closures and bank failures. Remember the S&L crisis? The Government had to close S&L's and many lost their life savings. Remember the "Keating Five"? Five criminal politicians who took bribes in order for Charles Keating to keep his S&L open while bilking pensioners out of their life savings.

In 1989, the Lincoln Savings and Loan Association in California collapsed. It was estimated that a government bail-out of Lincoln would cost over two billion dollars. Charles Keating, the Chairman of Lincoln's parent company, was implicated for being personally responsible for this, the nation's largest thrift failure. When the House Banking Committee heard testimony on the Lincoln collapse, Keating suggested that the problem was the fault of the regulators whom he suggested had a vendetta against him and were out to sabotage his business.

Edwin J. Gray, the former head of the Federal Home Loan Bank Board, on the other hand, testified that his agency's auditing was anything but activist. Further, Gray said he had been approached by a number of influential senators to discontinue investigations of the Lincoln S&L. Later, it was revealed that these senators had received substantial campaign contributions (also known as bribes)--both directly and indirectly--from Keating, totaling over 1.3 million dollars.

A number of investigations began as to whether these senators had acted improperly and whether Keating had been able to buy influence through his campaign contributions. These included investigations by the State of California, the U.S. Department of Justice, and the Senate Ethics Committee. While the California and the Justice Department investigations concentrated on Keating's action, the Senate Ethics Committee investigation concentrated on the actions of the five crooked senators implicated: now deceased Alan Cranston (D, CA), Dennis DeConcini (D, AZ), former national hero and NASA astronaut John Glenn (D, OH), former Vietnam POW and presidential candidate John McCain (R, AZ), and Donald Riegle (D, MI). These men were dubbed the Keating Five. Sounds eerily like the Enron scandal doesn't it? Of course then President "Daddy" George Bush had a personal stake as son Neil was also involved in another S&L scandal in Denver.

Bank failures are not a thing of the past either. Banks still do fail, and several fail every year. Savings are only insured up to $100,000 by the Federal Insurance Depoit Corp. (Credit Unions are insured by National Credit Union Share Insurance Fund). Just last month Hamilton Bank in Miami went tits up sucking down $1.3 billion in assets ($130 million not insured). In the year 2001 to 2002, 15 banks failed ranging from the $2.3 billion Superior Bank in Chicago to the $9.5 million Malta National Bank in Malta, Ohio. Not all of the deposits were insured resulting in serious losses to the savings of many bank depositors.

Oh yeah, it can and it does happen here! The best insurance (portfolio insurance) is hard assets like Gold and Silver. Have an escape plan ready. Get out of debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, get several months of food and basic goods stored away, and have enough cash on hand to meet several months expenses.

- Black Blade

Waverider

(02/13/2002; 22:47:20 MDT - Msg ID: 69964)

Union condemns British Airways jobs 'butchery' - 5,800

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1818000/1818723.stmSnippit:
"A plan by British Airways to cut a further 5,800 jobs has been condemned by a union leader as "butchery"."

Waverider: Another 5,800 BA Bones coming in for a rough landing atop the ever-growing Bone Pile.

Black Blade

(02/13/2002; 23:06:32 MDT - Msg ID: 69965)

CarlH - Base Gas

In short Base Gas is essentially the gas required in a storage pool to maintain sufficient pressure to keep the working gas recoverable. Also called "cushion" gas. Working (or Top) Gas is the volume of gas that is expected to be cycled from a natural gas storage facility. I hope that helps.

- Black Blade

Cor Tauri

(02/13/2002; 23:16:58 MDT - Msg ID: 69966)

ski: your first move should be to resolve the question in your mind of which precious metal will move the most

This question can not be resolved. I believe that both are currently undervalued. I believe that silver has been in a bear market in terms of gold, for what 500 years? So eventually, yes silver will probably return to roughly 16 to 1. But we might have another 100 years to wait? Or not, some say there is very very little silver above ground now. Perhaps we only have to wait for another month or two. But I can not KNOW now the timeline. And truthfully, I don't think anyone else can. So, I can not simply decide on one or the other and then buy exclusivly the one I THINK will go up most.
As for Blanchards words, both metals are now cheap, in terms of dollars. And in terms of each metals counterparts, it is difficult to tell which is cheaper. The extreme ratio was I think 100:1 around the time of the US civil war. And the other extreme was I think 1:1 in Ancient Egypt. But in recent times the ratio has been averaging about 60:1 about where we are now.
Since I can never know with certainty which direction the ratio will tend to move, I must buy both.My goal is not profit, but conservation of wealth. Both are money. We have lived for so long in a world that discounted both, I do not know how to allocate between the two without resorting to predictions as to which will out race the other.

shades

(02/13/2002; 23:17:31 MDT - Msg ID: 69967)

question to sir black blade

sir black blade your posts i hold so dear your posts are revelations akin to sermons on the mount, however i do have a question or better put can you tell me how best to invest in these grim times. you normally sign off in your usual way which leaves me in a quandry, should i pay off debt first? should i acquire gold and silver first ? should i have 1 months supply of fiat to pay bills first ? i am presently up to my eyeballs in debt but continue to acquire moderate amounts of pms both physical and paper ie stocks hoping to hedge for the day when tshtf, if i didnt buy stocks and physical my debts would be negligible,but with the way the market is going i dont wnat to ride the express train in 3rd class if there is a chance to upgrade. I will of course take your advice most appreciably and understand that due diligence is how we should all adhere to in these difficult times with great respect shades

Cor Tauri

(02/13/2002; 23:30:05 MDT - Msg ID: 69968)

Thats race idea, that is the hart of my thoughts now

If one edges ahead of the other, if gold buys more silver in the future should I not sell some of my gold for silver in order to rebalance. I want my purchasing power to remain the same. And there would be a bit of lag, my holdings are not so vast that I could exchange one metal for the other every week.
Today the ratio is 60:1 and if I had 60:1 silver to gold, (I don't I only have about 33:1), my wealth would be what it is now. A year from now the ratio has changed either silver has gotten cheaper in terms of gold or gold has gotten cheaper in terms of silver. I now have an excess of the higher valued metal, which I exchange for the cheaper metal. Now imagine the ratio continues in that direction. Each "allocation" period I buy the metal I need to bring my ratio back to the current market ratio. The longer the period of time between adjustments the more the leading metal appreciates in terms of the lagging metal.
Is this not sensible?

Black Blade

(02/13/2002; 23:44:59 MDT - Msg ID: 69969)

RE: shades

I don't give investment advice, however, if one were to pay off debt that is an instantaneous gain, right? I tend to buy nonperishable foods and basic goods when I can in quantity (and it's cheaper - what can I say, I'm a tightwad), I purchase PMs and stock when I can after all other expenses are taken care of and sometimes I purchase small amounts of PMs even when cash is tight, and I keep a buffer of cash handy for when I have no steady income like now as I am atop the "Bone Pile" for the next month or so. Of course I am not worried as I have made it a habit to be prepared. I am used to a Boom-Bust economy as I work in natural resources (base and PM exploration, and Petroleum). For myself the most important things in life should always be first of course and that means taking care of self and family needs starting with the most basic items such as food and basic goods, then debt, and next hard assets, and finally investments. I wouldn't deprive myself or family though. It is not much of a sacrifice to accumulate a little Gold and Silver every week/month. It eventually will pile up. I have some debt but that is easily manageable and I could pay it off with cash reserves, but then the cash is for expenses and emergency purposes. What you have to do is determine what is most important for you and yours and how best to approach your goals and in what order. So sharpen that pencil and make a list and segregate those items in order of importance to you. Nothing comes without some sacrifice. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Horatio

(02/13/2002; 23:52:20 MDT - Msg ID: 69970)

From Colin Seymour Web Page

Treasury blows �350m in great gold sale gamble

The surge in the price of gold could leave the Treasury's two year sell-off of its reserves, which ends next month, nursing a loss
of hundreds of millions of pounds... [Feb 10]

Why has our gold been sold off at its worst price for 20 years? Could it be that the purpose of the sale had a hidden agenda?

"It is often said that some famous foreign finance houses have shorted gold to a huge amount - vastly greater than the tonnage of
sales contemplated by the Bank of England - and that it was therefore vital for them for the gold price to fall substantially so that
they could close their positions and take huge profits. I do not know whether that is true, although I think that there is no doubt
that several finance houses have been shorting gold in a very large amount"

- Sir Peter Tapsell MP

What happened the last time that the Bank of England sold gold? According to Sir Peter Tapsell, this was in 1971, fetching
about $40 per fine ounce. BOE officials will not enjoy being reminded that following this, the price of gold rocketed to a peak
of $850 by 1980.

"... So why then have central banks been selling gold? Economic theory tells us that monopolists will strive to maintain their
cartel-like control of a market. The same is true for central bankers. They hate gold, because it is unwelcome competition. It
represents an alternative to their "product", paper money. Moreover, it is out of their control: they can control the supply, value
and even allocation of new paper money. They have no such monopoly power over gold. So it is not surprising that they would
go out of their way to destroy peoples faith in it. This is achieved by consistently driving down the bullion price..."

- Mr. Richard A. Werner, chief economist/managing director of the Profit Research Center in Tokyo, Japan

Cor Tauri

(02/13/2002; 23:56:08 MDT - Msg ID: 69971)

shades I am as fine dust beneath black blades shoes but ...

Debt is slavery. They say that paper can burn, which might suggest that debts could be defaulted on on a widespread basis. In other words slaves might be set free, or they might gain their freedom by revolt.
Some have suggested that paper gains might offset paper debts, perhaps. That idea was attractive to me when I had a mortgage. And I still hold some gold stocks. But they are not wealth, they are a speculation. A speculation that my broker or the exchange or the bank that issues the ADRs won't default on their obligations to me. Although my stocks have done very well lately, I suspect that my counter party risk is going up substantially. My counter parties being the govts where the mines are, the ADR bank, the exchange and the broker. And I have not increased my "allocation" to gold stocks as I might of since they are doing so well. I am starting to believe that paper will burn.

Sir, you must eat, so Black Blades advise about food ...
It is also the cheapest advise to follow, storable food can always be eaten later even if times are good.

The physical metals, these are no one elses obligation. No one can default on them. Even if all of us are wrong, they should serve you well.

As for the express train, hmm.. I'm riding in 3rd class. Whats the matter with 3rd class? It beats standing on the platform watching the train leave without you.

As for cash, my wife and I have a checking account. We closed our savings account when the interest rates fell so low. Also there is a difference apparently between a demand account and a savings account. We picked a round number below our checking account balance and spent the rest on PMs. After a time feeling very comfortable with that round number as our minimum balance, we picked a round number below that. And so on and so on. Whenever our account ballance exceeds that round number by an amount equivilent to a minimum order with our PM dealer, we buy metal.

It is hard to know how much cash to keep, but we have found a method that works well for us. Always enough to meet our expenses, and enough to meet two unforseen expenses, for instance a new furnace or roof. Someting really big and we would be short of cash, but then most would be short well before then. And we do have liquid assets other than our checking account. Assets that are no ones obligation.

But the debt... someday you might be rich. Perhaps I will be as well. But I have no debts now. It is a feeling I want you to have. It is a good feeling.

Waverider

(02/13/2002; 23:58:54 MDT - Msg ID: 69972)

The Phoenician US Dollar

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/hamilton081301.html"Why in hell would anyone think that these problems couldn't happen here?"

Snippit:
"Throughout all aspects of human history, great pivotal events like Alexander's siege of Tyre have caught most people unaware. We all tend to become seduced and hypnotized by the status quo. We inherently extrapolate the present into the future, relying on linear assumptions in a non-linear world. Because something looks stable today, we usually tend to naturally assume that it will remain the same tomorrow."

Waverider: I'm sure that was a redundant question BB, but I couldn't resist! (smile) Your excellent commentary reminded me of Adam Hamilton's article (above link). You are both very wise. Cheers!

Mr Gresham

(02/13/2002; 23:59:48 MDT - Msg ID: 69973)

Aragorn?

http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=GBGLF&read=810Located an "Aragorn" posting at raging bull about gold stocks...

Back over $300 -- good day ahead?

Spartacus

(02/14/2002; 00:15:49 MDT - Msg ID: 69974)

Argentina

http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=890&FS=Confiscatory+Deflation%3A+The+Case+of+Argentina
Confiscatory Deflation: The Case of Argentina by Joseph T. Salerno

---While assorted financial journalists, market pundits, policy wonks, Fed governors and even mainstream macroeconomists have been thrown into a panic by the slight whiff of price deflation they detected in the last few months in the U.S. economy, they have almost completely ignored the wrenching confiscatory deflation that is now going on in Argentina.--

Spartacus: Argentina - The whole story.

shades

(02/14/2002; 00:24:24 MDT - Msg ID: 69975)

thank you

Cor Tauri. I know not what your handle means ,but i am sure that is a post i would surely like to read about later. Anyways your response to my last post i will ( and i am sure a few million) take to heart ,your answers to my questions were and are very much appreciated, and will solidify my resolve in how to guide my future. welcome to the fold, please dont ever stop posting under any circumstances, as anyone who can put the forsight into your last post like you did is surely someone we most certainly need at this post, it would seem that you have the passion like sir black blade and others ( you know who you are ) with the utmost respect shades

ski

(02/14/2002; 00:39:24 MDT - Msg ID: 69976)

Cor Tauri .... gold silver ratio

Cor Tauri ... In times past, I did some considerable reading on the topic of the elusive gold-silver ratio. My personal conclusion was that this ratio is nonsense. A historical look at this ratio shows it going all over the chart. However, it is also true that there have been some extended periods of time where the ratio appeared to stabilized around 16:1

A couple of ratios that seems to have more predictive value than the above PRICE ratio are as follows:

1. FOUND IN NATURE RATIO ... 10-1
2. PRESENT EXTRACTION RATIO .. 4-1

(the above two ratios are from what I can recall reading and could be a little off.)

Concerning your prerequisite of being CERTAIN about a given investment. Unless a person has some kind of illegal insider information, we can never be CERTAIN about anything in the investment arena. If I could be CERTAIN of which direction that Walt Disney stock was going to trade on the first day of every month, I would be rich in a year or less.

The way that I have personally answered your gold-silver question is to triple up on silver in relation to my gold investments. I should also add that I advocate being invested in 10 different areas at the same time with roughly 10% in each area. Because I presently believe that silver is a "buy of a lifetime", I have broken my own rule and have considerably exceeded the 10% guideline.

We could find out tomorrow that someone has discovered how to extract silver or gold from sea water or some such thing that would significantly alter the PM picture. Nothing is certain and we have to act on the best information that we have at any given time. Also, something can always go wrong and it is therefore prudent to have a plan in place to protect yourself from the unexpected WHEN YOU FIRST ENTER A GIVEN POSITION.

It may not seem like it, but I really am trying to help. IMHO. Perhaps someone else on the forum will give you some additional input.

Black Blade

(02/14/2002; 00:41:21 MDT - Msg ID: 69977)

Argentine bank crisis spreads out to Uruguay

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3167ZJNXC&live=true&tagid=IXLT95DZ1BC
Snippit:

Argentina's largest private bank, Banco de Galicia, on Wednesday suspended its operations in Uruguay, one of the first signs that Argentina's financial crisis is spreading to its neighbours.

Uruguay's central bank said it would take control of the bank for 90 days after nervous depositors had withdrawn a third of the subsidiary's deposits since December. Argentina's central bank said it would use "all the actions at its disposal" to protect Galicia's Argentine operations, insisting that the two banks were independent of each other.

Given the troubled history of Argentina's banks, many Argentines choose nearby Montevideo to deposit their savings. Argentines have billions of dollars in undeclared cash sitting in the banking haven, giving it a reputation as the Switzerland of South America.

Analysts say that Wednesday's action by the Uruguayan central bank portends serious problems in the local financial system, as nervous Argentines send their money to more remote offshore havens. Another large bank in Uruguay, Banco Comercial, has also been shaken by fraud allegations against one of its principal shareholders, Carlos Rohm, an Argentine banker.

Black Blade: The race to insolvency - which South American country is next. First Argentina, then Venezuela, then Uruguay? Paraguay always was insolvent (more or less). Brazil is on the ropes. It doesn't look good. Good thing I snagged a few of those Gold Uruguay five peso pieces when they were offered at USAGOLD.

Black Blade

(02/14/2002; 01:13:56 MDT - Msg ID: 69978)

Gold: A Haven -- and More

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/feb2002/pi20020212_1031.htm

The precious metal's improved fundamentals, as well as investors looking for a hedge, have S&P bullish on the gold-mining industry

Snippit:

Gold is traditionally seen as a safe harbor investment in times of turmoil. Like now. The price of the yellow metal -- and of shares in companies that mine and produce it -- have held up well since the September 11 terrorist attacks. (The industry is a recent addition to Standard & Poor's Relative Strength rankings.) And gold has again taken center stage since the Enron debacle.

However, jittery investors looking for a refuge aren't all that's powering the advance in gold. S&P metals analyst Leo Larkin points out that the metal's fundamentals have improved. That's why he has a positive investment outlook for the gold-mining industry.

His reasons are many. For one, a sharp decline in interest rates since January, 2001, has made short-selling -- an investing bet that its price will drop -- less profitable for both producers and speculators. Short-selling has been a major negative for gold prices the last several years, notes Larkin.

Supply and demand factors will help. Larkin points out that the deficit between production and consumption will widen in 2002 as output declines and physical demand for the metal increases. Low gold prices in recent years have led to sharply reduced exploration -- resulting in flat to lower production. And that will continue even if the price continues to climb, since it takes a long time to bring production capacity on line.

Black Blade: I know that many exploration and mining people have left the Gold industry and it will be somewhat difficult to attract these people back. When Gold rebounds and the POG continues to rise, the mines will have a shortage of experienced people. Many have lost everything when the industry took a dump over the last 5 years and they are not all that eager to return. The mining industry will likely have to double or triple their wages to attract them. It is evident that the production will not catch up to increasing demand for at least several years.

Black Blade

(02/14/2002; 01:27:24 MDT - Msg ID: 69979)

Gold lower on producer selling in Europe

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020213/l13483152_1.html
Snippit:

LONDON, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Gold prices ticked lower in morning trading in Europe on Wednesday, as bullion came under producer selling pressure and traders said they saw the metal staying in range, with a slight bias to the downside. Profit-taking in Japan overnight, after the yen bounced against the dollar, took a toll on prices and bullion opened in Europe below the key $300.00 level. ``We saw some aggressive producer-related selling which took the price down to $297...where it actually held, but then the guy stopped selling when he saw that there is real physical demand down there,'' one trader said.

Traders said the market is overbought. It has been orbiting around $300.00 since Monday as it digested last week's $23 rally, in which bulls were thought to have accumulated a net long position of up to five million ounces. ``The outlook for gold remains supportive, with the market continuing to hold near the $300 level,'' another trader said. ``However, without follow-through buying, there is a good chance that the market may drift lower towards $290,'' he said, adding he expected trading to be light for the rest of the week in the absence of Chinese players and ahead of the three-day week-end in the U.S. for Presidents' Day.

Black Blade: When all markets are running on all cylinders next Tuesday, maybe then we will see a run on the POG. Meanwhile Japanese housewives and others seeking a safe haven will get Gold a bit cheaper.

Black Blade

(02/14/2002; 01:58:51 MDT - Msg ID: 69980)

London Dip

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
Right on que - the London Dip. The last few days once London opens the POG drops only to recovery a bit in NY toward the end of trading.

Black Blade

(02/14/2002; 02:50:58 MDT - Msg ID: 69981)

GATA on C-Span

Watching Bill Murphy of GATA on C-Span right now. Actually Chris Powell is speaking now. "Interesting"

Black Blade

(02/14/2002; 04:27:07 MDT - Msg ID: 69982)

NY palladium jumps as Zurich squeezed, gold soft

http://www.forbes.com/business/global/newswire/2002/02/13/rtr513254.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK, Feb 13 (Reuters) - New York palladium futures rose on Wednesday amid a forward squeeze in the platinum group metal trading hub of Zurich, while gold cut early profit-taking losses, remaining resilient in a range around $300 an ounce.

Black Blade: I won't go into detail here as I have in the past. There are two points to remember here.

1. The Russians can't deliver what they don't have. This has been a problem in the Pd markets in the past and even led to defaults of Pd contracts on the TOCOM and NYMEX.

2. In spite of all the hoopla, there is no substitute for Pd in catalytic converters/scrubbers for diesel engines.

Can you say "Short Squeeze"?

And�ril

(02/14/2002; 05:04:25 MDT - Msg ID: 69983)

Sweet innocent children chasing silver rainbows

Trapper, Slingshot, why do you close your eyes to the world around you, preferring to live as in a bygone world of memories?? R Powell, is the hard earth not "substance" enough to build your thoughts upon? There is no dispute - the want for gold once upon a time discarded silver at 12:1, growing pace to 60:1. A lesson that takes shape for anyone.

You cheat your family security if you do not attempt to understand this movement for what it is, and not what you fancy it to be. This is no mere trading fluctuation. Do not bet against it. This is a long term trend - a feature in accompaniment of the progressive development of the civilisation of mankind.

Only in nostalgic imaginations can a return to 12:1 be seen; an expectation held only by the ill-informed or short-sighted.

Not all movements mimic the pendulum. Believe it!

You disagree?

Consistency of your pendulum logic must then also have the cowrie shell swing back to its former high historic value ratio. What say you?

This will not happen! This is where the silver argument also fails. You must convinciningly counter this singular point if you can, or forever cede the issue.

Do you resist that historic averages may permanently change with advancing society? For ten thousand years the average value of petroleum or uranium was...worthless. Change happens as human behaviour evolves! Buggy whips had a brief day in the sun - come and gone.

Time marches on. We shall not revisit some of our old ways, valuable cowrie shells and 12:1 silver among them - each built on TRANSITIONARY framework of bygone behaviour under combined influence of political and technological evolution.

Watching gold ratios grow larger while set against the economic framework of the modern world, the tale of gold IS being told, told clearly NOW. Yet you refuse to see it and you refuse to listen. The best teacher - Personal Experience - is teaching you nothing. It seems that you are beyond aid or guidance. Nothing but cruel hindsight and burnt hands in future days will convince you that gold's separation from silver and cowrie shells was even now only in its early stages with much more space to run.

CoBra(too)

(02/14/2002; 05:39:02 MDT - Msg ID: 69984)

Hello MK - Bode's second slalom run ...

A perfect demonstration! The combined downhill was something like a devils run, only the most perfect athletes could master. What a gripping show.
Bode still has 2 chances for gold and apparently he is favoring the special slalom as his aim.

Regards and even if off-topic it`s about olymoic gold :)
cb2

Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD

(02/14/2002; 07:05:52 MDT - Msg ID: 69985)

NEWCOMERS: Request your free introductory info packet (book available separately for $5.95)

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Free Information Packet on Gold Ownership:
Currently features a Short Introduction to our Products and Services
and two important articles on the gold market from our Reprint Series:
"For Real Money" by James Grant (Grant's Interest Rate Observer) and
"The Investment Case for Gold" by John Hathaway (DeTocqueville Funds).

darkhorse

(02/14/2002; 07:42:10 MDT - Msg ID: 69986)

@Anduril

Your comparisons of silver to buggy whips and cowrie shells just doesn't cut it! You're talking about things that no longer have any use...silver, on the other hand, has so many uses these days, it's hard to list them all. IMHO I think you prophesied your own future when you said "Nothing but cruel hindsight and burnt hands in future days will convince you...", but it will be about silver, not gold. When people like Buffet, Gates, and Soros are in silver that's not bad company. Just as Mr. Hathaway has said that gold would be "...comfortably inside four figures...", I believe silver will be comfortably inside three before all is said and done. Will either one of us will see that day? I have no idea...my names not Nostradamus and God doesn't let too many people know what He has in mind for the future. Getting past yesteryear, do you have any evidence silver WON'T fly with gold?

Siochain

(02/14/2002; 07:55:12 MDT - Msg ID: 69987)

JPM strategist leaves

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020214/n1441669_2.htmlThursday February 14, 8:24 am Eastern Time
J.P. Morgan's Doug Cliggott to leave firm -- source
NEW YORK, Feb. 14 (Reuters) - J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
I guess JPM can't take the truth ...or Cliggott is smart to get out (maybe both!)
(NYSE:JPM - news) strategist Doug Cliggott is to leave the investment bank, according to an individual familiar with the matter.

No further details were available.

Cliggott has been one of the most bearish of Wall Street's top strategists. He accurately predicted that the Standard & Poor's 500 Index (^SPX - news) would fall in 2000, and was skeptical at an early stage about stocks' prospects in 2001, when the S&P 500 fell again.

This year, he has been one of the few strategists to predict that the S&P 500 would fall a third straight year

EagleOne

(02/14/2002; 08:00:57 MDT - Msg ID: 69988)

Euro family squabbles

http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2-2002071000,00.htmlJunior members of the EU are not too happy with Germany for breaking their own rules.

Mr Gresham

(02/14/2002; 08:43:17 MDT - Msg ID: 69989)

Thought For The Day ;)

"Empty barrels..."

Belgian

(02/14/2002; 09:00:29 MDT - Msg ID: 69990)

LBMA figures - WGC

Clearing figures for januari '02 = 507 tonnes per day !!(1 tonne=1.000 Kg). This 507 tonnes for januari is a 20% decline to december '01. And clearing has been declining for already 5 consecutive years (ATH was 1.200 tonnes per day)! Physical Gold clearing is +/- 10-12 tonnes per day.

Interpretation : Paper gold (507 mt/day) is declining.
The constant decline from 1997 is coinciding with the euro-transition period from theoretical currency to physical notes in circulation. This decline in paper gold trade is not commodity related but monetary and strongly suggesting that the euro currency has Gold incorporated into its concept.
A declining derivative (paper gold) together with a price bottoming for the underlying tangible (Physical Gold) has a message ! A positive one to me. Why isn't WGC elaborating on this fenomenon ??? A decline of 5 consecutive years in a derivative is surely a good reason for expert's explanation, isn't it ? What are the Gold-Authorities (?) waiting for to give this *Trend* some public attention and explanation ?

Galearis

(02/14/2002; 09:00:34 MDT - Msg ID: 69991)

@ ski and Cor Tauri

Gold and silver ratiosJust to add a little more to the discussion: silver and gold rank at 66th and 75th as component elements in the earth's crust. But as you know, context is everything.

Best regards,

P.S. There is an excellent article by M. Butler (When Gold is King)on Gold Eagle re gold and silver coinage use and X-long wave cycles. The author describes one reason that it is probably not a bad idea to "invest" over 10% of ones worth in gold and silver. As I have.
P.S.2 The gold AND silver bull has likely begun and for those who do not watch there was a 1.8 m.o. draw down of eligible silver stocks at COMEX yesterday. Stay tuned.

Trapper

(02/14/2002; 09:02:32 MDT - Msg ID: 69992)

Andruil

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/mbutler021502.htmlIn the US the bi-metal system is what put us on the map. I think that the bi-metal system will do it again. My case for silver is just this. Almost all the gold ever mined is still with us whereas most all the silver ever mined is gone. Add to the mix that silver will be used for new power transmission with it's other know uses and you don't have enough supply. Then take the investment and money function added to the mix....result much higher prices. As I, and now Darkhorse have pointed out that your postulate that rich men are in the know and should be followed is correct. Hence Buffet and Soros, etc. are the rich men we are following, so thank you for the advice. This is not a game here to see who is the smarter, but one of advice and thought. I like most here just want to get ahead, no avarice or contest if know something we don't please share it. Live small.
RJ

Leigh

(02/14/2002; 09:12:49 MDT - Msg ID: 69993)

Happy Valentine's Day, All!

"There's nothing cuter than a goldbug."

sector

(02/14/2002; 09:18:40 MDT - Msg ID: 69994)

Japan's Trade Surplus at Record Low...British Aircraft (Airbus Affiliate) Problems

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3CQJVAOXC&live=true&tagid=IXLI0L9Z1BC
Japan's trade surplus falls to record low
By Bayan Rahman in Tokyo
Published: February 14 2002 07:54 | Last Updated: February 14 2002 12:16

Japan's income surplus rose to a record high last year, while the trade surplus plunged to a record low, reflecting the flow of funds to overseas investments and the sharp decline in exports.

The figures also reflect the structural change in Japanese manufacturing as more companies transfer factories overseas, lured by lower fixed costs and cheaper labour. The shift to offshore manufacturing increased imports to Japan.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3LPFHCOXC&live=true&tagid=IXLI0L9Z1BC

BAE forecasts fall in earnings as crisis hits
By Mark Odell
Published: February 14 2002 08:40 | Last Updated: February 14 2002 08:49

BAE Systems said on Thursday that the impact of the crisis in the civil aerospace sector on Airbus would hit earnings this year as it reported a sharp fall in profits for 2001.

The world's fourth largest defence contractor, which owns a 20 per cent stake in European civil jet maker, said the problems at Airbus combined with the completion of a number of export contracts elsewhere would "adversely impact" earnings in 2002 and "delay the resumption of growth. . . we previously envisaged."

It expects growth to resume next year, lifted by its core defence activities.

BAE's shares fell 8-1/2p to 317-1/2p in London in early trade.

"The outlook for our defence businesses remains good with a number of important new programmes set to contribute to our profitability," the company said.

BAE Systems said pre-tax profits last year fell to �70m ($99.9m) from �179m in 2000, depressed by �518m in exceptional items. The one-off charges included a �370m writedown to cover the closure of its regional jet business announced last November.
+++++++++++++++++++
Predictions of a "bottom" don't hold water.

RobotGuy

(02/14/2002; 09:23:56 MDT - Msg ID: 69996)

Leigh

That's not what my last girlfriend said. She was too busy telling me that I risk too much playing around with the PM's. I bought her a beautiful gold necklace for Christmas last year. She wouldn't wear it despite how many people commented on it's beauty. She prefers silver. I asked her to trade it in and get what she wanted, and she said she'd rather keep it to hang onto in case someday she changed her mind. Her stresses of my investment portfolio, and my willingness to take investment risks eventually got the best of our relationship. Oh well, She'd be a little more comfortable now had she stuck in there.

jlfletc

(02/14/2002; 09:29:10 MDT - Msg ID: 69997)

SioChain

You posted a few days ago about a backup power source in case the grid goes down. I've been waiting for my forum registration to go through to respond.

A decent but relatively affordable, and portable, power system can be found here:
http://www.store4power.com/battery-integrated-products/battery-integrated-products.asp?#570

Having a couple of the xPower 1500s would be a nice stand alone battery backup system, that provides AC as well as DC power. Their functionality increases when used in conjunction with a solar panel like the one found here:
http://www.cetsolar.com/marine5.htm

and/or a portable generator such as found here:
http://www.hondapowerequipment.com/genligframe.htm

You could recharge one of the xPowers during the day via the solar panel, or the generator on cloudy days, while using the other to power radio/TV,computer, and lighting at night etc., then swap them the following day.

With these four components, and a small stabilized supply of gasoline, you could have "off-grid" power for some time.

Of course, for substantially more $, you could install a full house solar system with battery backup, and actually live off-grid permanently, or be connected to the grid and sell them your excess power.
Check out:
http://www.solarhouse.com/index2.html
for one example, and here:
http://www.solarenergyinformation.com/
and here:
http://www.homepower.com/
for more info.
Enjoy!

Siochain

(02/14/2002; 09:36:18 MDT - Msg ID: 69998)

War drums

http://204.29.171.50/framer/1000/default.asp?realname=Philadelphia+Inquirer&cc=US&lc=en%2DUS&frameid=1565≺oviderid=112&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Ephillynews%2Ecom%2Finq%2Ffront%5Fpage The war drums continue to beat ...I was disturbed that the Administration trotted out a number of defender...nay make that stron supporters...last night re the "Axis of Evil". One of the ultra far right G. Gordon Liddy went so far as to indicate we may need to take North Korea down.

You may recall that right before 9/11, much was being made of Sec State Colin Powell's disappearance from the inner power circle ...there were comments that Powell had lost the struggle against the far right hawks and that there were appointments in State from this ilk which Powell fought and lost on.

Also supposedly Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz was leading efforts to undermine Powell.

In recent days there have been storis including in the conservative Washington Times of Powell's loss of power/influence and supposedly someone close to him indicated Powell's concern over some of the plans being put on the table.

Yes Belgian, I agree with your comments yesteday re Oil and War. Also a nice war will take peoples eyes off the economy and we will rally round the flag....and Slingshot, something truly does stink to high heaven...or hell!

I am registered Independent...I believe in split government (it's safer that way) but I fear freedom is being lost everyday in the name of protection/patriotism (these can be wonderful virtues but when misused they become weapons of destruction IMO)

Mr. Gresham...I second your suggestion in #69957...let the call go out ...very loud and clear...for FOA and Oro to come back ...your suggestion of a question section to discuss their previous posts especially in light of events unfolding is excellent,,,I hope something might be done on this.

I too have many questions after reading past posts ...C'mon back Giants and join with the wondeful posters here as we continue our wonderings and wanderins

Bush sends new war signals to Saddam
By JODI ENDA and WARREN P. STROBEL
Knight Ridder Newspapers

WASHINGTON - President Bush said Wednesday he would "keep all options available" to deal with Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, apparently including military strikes.

Bush's language, during a news conference with Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, sent a fresh signal to Saddam that the United States might act unilaterally to topple his regime.

Senior U.S. officials told Knight Ridder this week that Bush has decided to remove Saddam from power and has ordered the Pentagon, the CIA and other agencies to come up with ways to do it.

Discussions over what action to take, and when, are under way within the U.S. government, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity. And Bush will act alone if necessary, they said.

Bush said Wednesday that Saddam "needs to understand I'm serious about defending our country."

Standing next to Musharraf in the White House, Bush repeated his State of the Union warning that "there are some nations in the world which develop weapons of mass destruction with one intention, and that is to hold America hostage and or harm Americans and or our friends and allies."

The president said he would work with other nations to pressure such foes.

"But make no mistake about it," he added, "if we need to, we will take necessary action to defend the American people.

"And I think that statement was clear enough for Iraq to hear me. And I will reserve whatever options I have. I'll keep them close to my vest."

Bush reiterated his concern that some countries, such as Iraq, might provide weapons of mass destruction to terrorists bent on harming Americans.

That concern appears to be part of the reason behind the stepped-up planning for the ouster of Saddam's regime.

The officials told Knight Ridder that Bush is likely to first demand that Saddam allow U.N. weapons inspectors back into Iraq, where they have not been for more than three years. If Iraq refuses, or blocks the inspectors' work, U.S. military action may follow.

During his State of the Union address last month, Bush lumped Iraq with Iran and North Korea as an "axis of evil."

The president said he intends to "make it clear to these nations they've got a choice to make. And I'll keep all options available if they don't make the choice."

In the last few days, administration officials have sought to single out Iraq, saying they still see opportunities for dialogue with Iran and North Korea, but not with Baghdad.

Bush's tough rhetoric has prompted complaints from a handful of both Democratic and Republican lawmakers. They have questioned whether Bush's bellicose tone could undermine reformers in Iran, and insisted on knowing whether the president is preparing to send the United States into a new conflict.

"There's a bit too much loose talk on the subject," Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, a leading proponent of Saddam's ouster, told the Senate Budget Committee in testimony on Wednesday.

"I think we would all agree that countries that are hostile to us and are developing weapons capable of killing hundreds of thousands of people are a serious problem," Wolfowitz said. "It seemed a bit theoretical before Sept. 11. It's not theoretical at all anymore."

Siochain

(02/14/2002; 10:04:00 MDT - Msg ID: 69999)

@jlfletc

Thanks for the information...I will definitely check these out. I just ordered a portable power pack from Solardyne(all in a backpack) plus a couple of DC small appliances to go with it.

I do want to get a larger unit since my Mother periodically needs oxygen....am building a cache of her medicines and looking into herbal alternative jut in case.

I can't believe I am putting such a store of things together....I usually pass off most of the fears but my gut plus logic is sending out strong warning signals so I shall listen and prepare.

This week-end I will look at guns...I have never touched one in my life. I plan to take a few lessons at a local shooting range. I've been checking the internet for best small/easy gun plus rifle.

I already have stun guns and strong pepper sprays though I never thought to go for guns

I'm even planning how to get to my brother's Vermont mountain condo should things look bad.

Of course...more gold plus some silver continues to go in my stockpile....plus barter goods....rechargeable batteries and solar rechargers...long shelf life food etc

Paranoid.????...actually I really hope and pray so ...though I feel that preparation must be done as Black Blade continuously reminds us (Thanks BB...keep it up!)

SEER

(02/14/2002; 10:24:50 MDT - Msg ID: 70000)

"AXIS OF EVIL"

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/02/13/opinion/13FRIE.htmlFrom Thomas L. Friedman's column, 2/13/2002:
"...the critics are missing the larger point, which is this: Sept. 11 happened because America had lost its deterrent capability. We lost it because for 20 years we never retaliated against, or brought to justice, those who murdered Americans. From the first suicide bombing of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut in April 1983, to the bombing of the Marine barracks at the Beirut airport a few months later, to the T.W.A. hijacking, to the attack on U.S. troops at Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia, to the suicide bombings of two U.S. embassies in East Africa, to the attack on the U.S.S. Cole in Yemen, innocent Americans were killed and we did nothing."

"So our enemies took us less and less seriously and became more and more emboldened. Indeed, they became so emboldened that a group of individuals � think about that for a second: not a state but a group of individuals � attacked America in its own backyard. Why not? The terrorists and the states that harbor them thought we were soft, and they were right. They thought that they could always "out-crazy" us, and they were right. They thought we would always listen to the Europeans and opt for "constructive engagement" with rogues, not a fist in the face, and they were right."

"America's enemies smelled weakness all over us, and we paid a huge price for that."

"The Europeans don't favor any military action against Iraq, Iran or North Korea. Neither do I. But what is their alternative? To wait until Saddam Hussein's son, Uday, who's even a bigger psychopath than his father, has bio-weapons and missiles that can hit Paris?"

"No, the axis-of-evil idea isn't thought through � but that's what I like about it. It says to these countries and their terrorist pals: 'We know what you're cooking in your bathtubs. We don't know exactly what we're going to do about it, but if you think we are going to just sit back and take another dose from you, you're wrong. Meet Don Rumsfeld � he's even crazier than you are.'"

This is solid thinking!

Waverider

(02/14/2002; 11:07:52 MDT - Msg ID: 70001)

Siochain

Good for you for the extent of your preparations! It's time consuming though. I grew up in the bush and my father taught me to shoot when I was about 10. I have his Manlicher Schoenauer 30-06 and I think you will find that with training, familiarity, and respect, guns are really not as ominous as they are made out to be (at least that seems to be the case in Canada). I had a chuckle when I read your post because I couldn't help but think that you are taking uponroof's advice! Have a great day and a great weekend!
Waverider

Tommy P

(02/14/2002; 11:17:21 MDT - Msg ID: 70002)

SEER, AND OTHERS

It seems that way doesn't, however I must totally disagree, The U.S. gave permission as such to saddam to enter Kuwait, they just didn't think he would go that far. They also created him as well, along with Iran. Just like the WTC they new of the attacks(fact) they just didn't know it was going to be 4 planes. I'm sorry to say but no other country in the World since WWII has destroyed, killed, finacially callasped, attacked, manipulated, ANNIHILATED MORE RACES, for National Security reasons or any other than the good old democratic U.S. of A.

Knallgold

(02/14/2002; 11:34:54 MDT - Msg ID: 70003)

SEER

Who tested those WMD (nuclear explosions,Plutonium i.v.,LSD,BZ,Biostuff-experiments,MKUltra etc)on THEIR OWN PEOPLE like the UDSSR and Hitler did?And sprayed it over others (Japan,Vietnam,poss. Irak etc.)?Threatens with it?

Frankly,I fear the US more than Saddam at the moment.Saddam knows his limits.Bush and Co. is going mad.

Old Yeller

(02/14/2002; 11:56:02 MDT - Msg ID: 70004)

The Cisco Skid

http://biz.yahoo.com/smart/020213/20020208stocclos.html
Quote from the article;"You can't look at Cisco's earnings and compare them to other companies.They're artifically inflated.They aren't fraudulent,but Cisco is agressively using the rules that do exist to make their earnings look better.Every quarter it's something different."

What is Cisco afterall,but a microcosm of the entire US economy and the team of official storytellers that distorts and obfuscates statistics and factual information to suit the particular spin of the day.

"The foundation rots from the bottom up,never from the top down,except in matters of moral character."

Mannfm11 from prudentbear forum,whatever happened to him?

sector

(02/14/2002; 12:32:54 MDT - Msg ID: 70005)

JPMs Bad Loans to TYCO [$14.4 Billion]

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-finance-jpmorganchase-tyco.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-finance-jpmorganchase-tyco.html
February 14, 2002
WSJ: JP Morgan Most Exposed to Tyco Loans

By REUTERS Filed at 3:17 a.m. ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - J.P. Morgan Chase (news/quote) & Co. Inc.appears to have the largest exposure to the $14.4 billion of unsecured loans Tyco International Ltd. (news/quote) (TYC.N) drew down last week, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.

The exact amounts of credit extended by each bank under the widely syndicated Tyco loans remain undisclosed, but based on regulatory filings and J.P. Morgan's usual share as lead banker, analysts estimate that its exposure to Tyco could be $700 million to $1 billion, the Journal said.

Under two credit lines to Tyco totaling $5.86 billion, J.P. Morgan, which led a group of about 40 banks, committed to lending a total of $300 million, according to regulatory filings last year, the Journal said.

Bank of America Corp. (news/quote) (BAC.N), Citigroup Inc. (news/quote)'sCitibank unit and Commerzbank AG (CBKG.DE) each agreed to pony up $275 million, the Journal said.

Those figures do not include the biggest portion of Tyco's bank debt, $8.5 billion in credit lines from 47 banks, also led by J.P. Morgan, to Tyco Capital, which Tyco now plans to sell or spin off, the Journal said.

J.P. Morgan has told analysts that it typically commits to holding onto eight percent of the debt when it leads a credit line, which would amount to $700 million -- though it held only five percent of the parent's line, so the figure could be less, the Journal said.
+++++++++++++++++++++++

A billion here, a billion there...here a billion...there a billion

everywhere a billion, Old Mc Donnough had a farm... eee, eye, eee, eye, OHHHH!

Gandalf the White

(02/14/2002; 13:01:09 MDT - Msg ID: 70006)

WOWSERS -- It's a Contest! <;-)

SIR MK said:
USAGOLD (02/13/02; 20:24:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 69956)
OK. . . It's a Contest!
I have sent a messenger to the Misty Mountains to summon the Wizardrous One for the momentous contest about to occur. (He gets pre-occupied at times as we all know) I am certain that the Hobbits are "Simply Delighted" with the Forum's approval. They love these events. Marie will be checking the Royal Vaults in the morning to set aside the prize. . . . .This time we will make it the lucky French Angel. Good luck to all.

Gandalf, oh Wizardrous member of this fabled Table, its all yours. No guesses please until the Wiz makes it official.
=====
WOWSERS -- Thanks SIR MK !!

Like SIR MK has said before: "HEAR YE! HEAR YE!! A POSTING CONTEST CALLING UPON YOUR MOST POWERFUL, WELL-HONED & ERUDITE SKILLS!! AND THIS IS GOING TO BE A GOOD ONE."

OK ALL -- Here is your chance to get a FREE "Angel" !!
--
THE RULES --
The COMEX February '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST !
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of
(GC2G) on the date of Friday the 25th of February.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "stars" *****
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as *****$543.2*****
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, Feb. 24th.
GOOD LUCK !
====

BIDDING UPDATES shall be posted as the Hobbits have time to do so. LET THE "GUESSING" BEGIN !!

PS: I really liked this former Knight's "Guess"
$$$$3,257.50$$$$ The Invisible Hand (12/3/01; 20:30:25MT
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(02/14/2002; 13:16:05 MDT - Msg ID: 70007)

CONTEST ADDENDUM !!

Each "Guesser" must also provide a VERBAL short paragraph of WHY the Knight or Lady feels that their "Guess" is on target !!
<;-)

goldenpeace

(02/14/2002; 13:22:48 MDT - Msg ID: 70008)

Price Guessing contest

********$308.10********
Problems at JPM, in Japan (where strong physical demand abounds), in Venezuela, and a droopy $ provide the backdrop on the physical side. Technicaly the stocks and the contract appear to be in a ST consolidation pattern which would tend to indicate a squeeze on the contact at expiration...probably still resisted by the Cartel. Hence, a close out just above recent highs.
Bowing

darkhorse

(02/14/2002; 13:35:52 MDT - Msg ID: 70009)

***** $312.5 *****

ALL of S. America, more problems and rumors of problems at banks around the world, more Enron/Global Crossing/et al testimonies, the Far East is "back in the hunt" after the holiday, more mama-sans buying golden "comforters", and a few million people around the world, just maybe, getting a little nervous about GW's attitude towards Iraq.

goldquest

(02/14/2002; 13:52:51 MDT - Msg ID: 70010)

Contest

*****$352.20*****
Bad news in all quadrants. Plus we are overdue for an overnight $50.00 jump in gold!

Carl H

(02/14/2002; 14:20:24 MDT - Msg ID: 70011)

***** $299.00 *****

The Cabal might be able to hold things together for another 5 or 6 business days. If so, the price will probably keep bouncing off of $300.

slingshot

(02/14/2002; 14:22:58 MDT - Msg ID: 70012)

contest

contest ******** $316.3*******
Looking at how gold has been behaving. $299 to $307 then back to $299/$300. I believe there will be another spike to
$307/ $308 with a small pullback with $316.3 finish. To put the test of $325/$350 in range. Gold is on the move.
slingshot

uponroof

(02/14/2002; 14:24:30 MDT - Msg ID: 70013)

Price guessing contest

********$303.8********

As the POG laps around the world, passing the NY finish line within a buck of 300 each day, it is evident that the gentlemen have started their engines. One can almost hear the engines roar as they manuver the turns around the world. But they are still under 'the start' and following the pace car. The flag comes down at 307 and the race will then officially begin.

By Feb 25 we will have gone another 7 laps. Is that enough time to reach 307? I'm gonna say no despite the pressure of rolling into the next contract. Still some repositioning to the upside to get done by the racemasters in the tower.

btw-This lapping at 300+- is perhaps boring but very healthy non the less. Building one solid floor here. The fact that it is finishing just under or over 300 irregularly, is making mince meat out of the 'pysch out' power of '300'.

So, I see it sitting in the 300+-307 range for at least 7 more laps. From here I'll guess it laps at 303.8 on Feb 25.

Disclaimer: Japan, Argentina, Venezuela, Brazil, Turkey, Iraq, Iran, Israel, palestine, middle east, China, N. Korea, S. Africa, Indonesia, Judge Lindsay, Paul O'Neill checking himself in somewhere, House Hearings stumble onto gold cartel, JPM, TYCO,...half the listed companies on the NYSE, CNBC going bullish on gold, Miscellaneous man made disasters, acts of God, and of course....

an Alan Greenspan moment, could all obliterate the POG at any time and send it way, way outta here.

POG is on the cusp of a new era. It only has to do what it is destined to do.

which reminds me....(ahem!)

'To be is to do' - Voltaire

'To do is to be' - Sartre

'Just do it' - Nike

'Do be do be do' - Sinatra

EagleOne

(02/14/2002; 14:27:04 MDT - Msg ID: 70014)

***** 306.1 *****

If the price line on my hand-drawn chart continues at the present 66% annual rate, that's about where the price would be on target date. Good luck to all.

sstins

(02/14/2002; 14:34:25 MDT - Msg ID: 70015)

Contest

****$379.00****

Technically speaking...
The fuse is lit. They're all jumping up and down trying to stomp it out. Somebody left to get a bucket of
water ... this time it's to late. Soon they'll give it up and run for cover.

A Canadian

(02/14/2002; 14:36:41 MDT - Msg ID: 70016)

******318.20*****

Under any economic conditions sub-$300 is illogical. This seems to have finally sunk in to the Dow-happy sheep being ramped up to the abbatoir. A modest increase approaching $320 can be taken for granted.

Tommy P

(02/14/2002; 14:41:13 MDT - Msg ID: 70017)

My price $320.25

let get in on!

Tommy P

(02/14/2002; 14:47:32 MDT - Msg ID: 70018)

******$320.25**********

sorry

Canuck Gold

(02/14/2002; 15:09:18 MDT - Msg ID: 70019)

Contest

*****$302.5*****

I'd like to be a bit more optimistic, but I suspect there will be the usual effort to keep the price down until after the contract closes. Just call me cynical.

CG

Jon

(02/14/2002; 15:12:30 MDT - Msg ID: 70020)

Fri 2/25?

What year?

Waverider

(02/14/2002; 15:13:23 MDT - Msg ID: 70021)

*************$307.70**************

GuestimateHmmm...to be an optimist or a pessimist...$307.70 (resigned to being a realist) based on continued strong Japanese demand and no major financial/political crisis within the next week.

BTW: Gandolf - my calender tells me that February 25th is a Monday. Closing date is Thursday Feb. 21st, and settlement price for Friday Feb. 22nd? Thanks, and Cheers! Contests are always great fun!

Canuck Gold

(02/14/2002; 15:16:50 MDT - Msg ID: 70022)

Contest

PS. I'm assuming the contest is for the February contract this year because the 25th isn't on a Friday. Should that have been the 22nd?

CG

R Powell

(02/14/2002; 15:16:54 MDT - Msg ID: 70023)

Anduril

Hello again. Yesterday you posted some harsh words about silver based on the current 60 to 1 price ratio. I asked if you held any other information or thoughts that might have shaped this negative opinion. I'm always looking for both.
Today (69983) you added that the 60 to 1 ratio would increase. You opined that there will be no "pendulum" effect or lowering of the ratio. You stated, "Only in nostalgic imaginations can a return to 12:1 be seen, an expectation held only by the ill-informed or shortsighted."
In that the silver to gold price ratio does not indicate a higher POS (or anything else), I agree entirely. During years of studying, I never put much faith in this ratio as an indicator of anything. Prices were fixed at different times in the past, gold ownership was illegal in the USA for a time while silver was not, and large discoveries of one or the other in days gone by certainly changed the ratio. I have never mentioned this ratio before but many of us have mentioned a great deal of fundamental, factual information that has lead us to believe that the POS will increase. As far as shortsighted goes, I'll admit I'm not a prophet. I've also been called far worse. As far as ill-informed goes, I don't believe there are a great many who have spent as much time and effort as I have in researching the fundamentals of the silver market. I also know a whole lot more than the average bear about gold. That's why I'm here every day, to learn and study (and according to a great poster, have fun and profit!)
Again, other than the ratio, why do you think that the dollar price of silver (or anything in which supply fails to keep pace with demand) will not increase?

You also stated today, "..the tale of gold IS being told, told clearly NOW. Yet you refuse to see it and you refuse to listen."
What ever gave you the idea that I am ignoring gold?
I happen to be highly interested and monetarily invested in gold- on the long side!

You also stated today, "It seems that you are beyond aid or guidance."
Have you already written me off as hopeless because I don't forsake silver simply because a ratio (that I don't regard as indicative of much) has changed?

As for your cowrie shells and pendulums, I'm sorry but I missed your point. It seemed clear to you as you concluded that, "This is where the silver argument fails." I don't believe you have even started any silver argument and you certainly haven't begun to bring any doubt on any of the basic fundamentals that many interpret as outrageously bullish.

Please clarify if possible but not if this again pertains to the ratio which I view as little more than a curiousity.
Other than this ratio, what has turned you so negative on silver? Can you offer information or a thought process that has produced this conclusion?
Thanks
Rich

Max Rabbitz

(02/14/2002; 15:25:20 MDT - Msg ID: 70024)

If they sell stocks they might turn to gold.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APGwulRRaRGVsbCBDThe headlines proclaim "Dell Computer's Net Rises 5.1% on Consumer PC Demand and the first line reads "Dell Computer Corp.... said fiscal fourth-quarter net income rose 5.1 percent on a jump in consumer demand."

Yet, reading past that first sentence we learn that sales declined 7 percent to $8.06 billion from $8.67 billion and projections for next quarter are a further 3 percent to 5 percent decline. Did the story writer, Peter J. Brennan, mean consumer demand jumping .... off a cliff?

Black Blade

(02/14/2002; 15:25:36 MDT - Msg ID: 70025)

Will Great Banks Close their Doors Once Again?

http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/histpics.htm
Snippit:

Contributing to the 1929 crash was lax regulation of companies where investors were susceptible to fraud and hype. "Individuals did not know whether companies were doing as well as they claimed to be doing and whether companies' financial reports were reliable" (see next link). Haven't we seen a repeat of this kind of thing in the spread of "pro-forma" accounting, where losses (according to generally accepted accounting principles) are automagically transformed to profits, and company results famously beat the Street by precisely one penny- time and time again? Hype is back with a vengeance- what market observer has not heard the new expression "pump-and-dump" (I wonder what the equivalent expression would have been in 1929)?

The 1929 Stock Market Crash

Haven't we seen, in Enron, the modern-day version of lax regulation, where financial transactions are hidden in derivatives and entities that do not show up on the books that the auditors see? And what of investors' confidence in companies such as Arthur Anderson, tainted by Enron-itis? And Allied Irish, where internal supervision procedures do not seem to have benefited from the lessons of Barings?

After the 1929 stock market crash, 4,000 banks failed because depositors, having suffered a loss of confidence in the system, rushed to withdraw their savings which they perceived to be at risk. Haven't we just seen this happen in Argentina? Well, no, because apparently the authorities have learned something, that the people shouldn't be allowed to get as far as getting their hands on their own money. Can people in the G7 world imagine that what just happened in Argentina could not happen to them? But aren't we seeing a financial catastrophe in Japan, which not long ago was one of the world's leading financial powerhouses, ahead I might suggest, of the United Kingdom.

Black Blade: A good article worth reading. Puts things in perspective. As I mentioned yesterday - "It can happen here". Get out of debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, get a food and basic goods storage program together, have enough cash for several months expenses, and hope for the best.

miner49er

(02/14/2002; 15:30:03 MDT - Msg ID: 70026)

***** 289.90 *****

The key of course to improve your chances of winning is to enter as close to the deadline as possible (unless your prediction is in a very crowded range...).

I will just throw this out here now with this to say. I cannot underestimate the resourcefulness of the drivers in the contract arena. It is beyond most of us to grasp all the intricate ways that paper can be legitimized. Yet somehow it is, and therefore it comes into being... in waves... again... and again... and again... And so it shall be... until those who have the power and will to disturb the universe redraw the battlelines in this fierce but quiet struggle for economic supremacy.

cheers,
miner

Horatio

(02/14/2002; 15:31:46 MDT - Msg ID: 70027)

Tulip Mania

White House celebrates Tulip Mania,Laura Bush buys Hubby TULIPS to celebrate Feb 14.

Black Blade

(02/14/2002; 15:36:02 MDT - Msg ID: 70028)

Jp Morgan Chase Exposure Tied to Tyco Loans

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20020214/bs_nm/finance_jpmorganchase_tyco_dc_1
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Inc. appears to have the largest exposure to the $14.4 billion of unsecured loans Tyco International Ltd. drew down last week, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.

Black Blade: Rumors persist that JP Morgan Chase has sustained huge losses on their Gold derivatives. Perhaps that is why the POG is being held in check (so far).

Black Blade

(02/14/2002; 15:44:00 MDT - Msg ID: 70029)

Analysts Should Toss Out Pro Forma

http://www.bloomberg.com/feature/feature1013698491.html
Snippit:

New York, Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Wall Street analysts have a wonderful opportunity to get rid of their image as stooges of the corporations they're supposed to critique. All they have to do is revert to forecasting earnings the old- fashioned way. No gimmicks. Out with ``pro forma.'' Out with ``EBITDA.'' But ignoring widespread demand for more honest financial reporting, the analysts remain snug with their CFOs.

Companies still feed analysts estimates that exclude costs managements want to play down. And the analysts obediently base their forecasts on this information. Perhaps they fear they will lose access to their CFOs and CEOs. Perhaps the bosses of their firms prefer them to be docile in order to solicit the companies' investment banking business. Whatever the reasons, it's too bad. Analysts are blowing a chance to stand up. As it is, they remain as credible as Olympic figure-skating judges.

Black Blade: Unfortunately we still see earnings reported as Pro Forma as analysts work to deceive the investing public.

Black Blade

(02/14/2002; 15:47:10 MDT - Msg ID: 70030)

Volcker: Enron Is Only a Symptom

Volcker: Enron Is Only a Symptom

Snippit:

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker Says Enron Is Only One Symptom of Accounting Industry Problems.

Black Blade: Ditto! It looks more and more like Qwest (Q) will follow in the footsteps of Enron and Global Crossing. Want to guess who their auditor is? You only get one guess.

HOOSIER GOLDBUG

(02/14/2002; 15:50:12 MDT - Msg ID: 70031)

PRICE GUESS!

************ $290.00 *************
No doubt in my mind, JPM and all others are selling double (PAPER GOLD) to make up for bad derivative positions, bad loan exposure, and will once again, beat the price down to make up some of the TOTAL LOSS!

R Powell

(02/14/2002; 16:08:07 MDT - Msg ID: 70032)

Lease rates

http://www.kitco.com/LFrate.html Rates are creeping up once again. Also, in silver, the short term rates increased quite a bit more than the longer terms. These rates worked wonderfully as a price increase indicator just a short time ago. Will they do so again?
David Morgan thinks the OTC short position in silver may be 50-120 million ounces. I believe the OTC short position in gold is huge, and proportionately much, much larger than that of silver when compared as, say, a percentage of yearly production or yearly useage. A temporary shortage or squeeze in London silver supply sent POS higher in Jan. until a rumored 12 million ounces was supplied to London. If gold lease rates start up, they may be indicating a leaseable supply squeeze that nobody will be able to fill. Where then POG?
Also, if silver lease rates continue up and continue moving toward backwardation, can we again assume there's a coming squeeze in London? 12 million ounces didn't last long, did they? Again, the 12 million number is not substantiated info.
An explosive price move and the sudden realization that demand far exceeds supply (without dishoarding) will surprise many investors and traders. Their shock may amaze us.
Rich

Horatio

(02/14/2002; 16:29:46 MDT - Msg ID: 70033)

Something to look forward to

THE NEW YORK TIMES of Sept 14,1937
"The action of the government in freeing $300,000,000
of 'sterilized' gold in an effort to lighten the credit needs of the country acted as a boomerang on the stock market yesterday,and the liquidation of last week returned with greater momentum."

IMHO.. If my study if Cycles is correct,look for inflation to boost the market and get the last of the market diehards back in for the final slaughter.
The market should rally until sept- oct ,with a brief pause in may -june .After sept -Oct the final decline into the abyss will commence.I believe GOLD and Housing will rally with the market as inflation will boost stocks,housing and gold until sept-Oct of 2002.All of 2003 will be a downer.
Inflation will be the order of the day until then.

The CoinGuy

(02/14/2002; 16:37:26 MDT - Msg ID: 70034)

*******$296.75*******

Planned on guessing in the low 290's because of a technical correction, but this market looks strong, and this may be a sideways corrective phase. Looking for a pullback to what has been support as of late, but nothing more. Could be headed much higher...

TCG

Horatio

(02/14/2002; 17:02:54 MDT - Msg ID: 70035)

Morgan

The blinding spotlight of rating-agency scrutiny also
shines on J.P. Morgan.

- "[I]nvestors should favor the likelihood of a
downgrade of J.P Morgan Chase's debt in the foreseeable
future," predicts bank analyst Charlie Peabody of
Ventana Capital.

- The potential ramifications are enormous, says
Peabody, both for J.P. Morgan itself and for the U.S.
financial system broadly. A downgrade would increase
JPM's borrowing costs, which means its interest expenses
could soar on its whopping $44 billion debt load.

- "More importantly," Peabody continues, "a credit
downgrade of JPM would also affect its ability to act as
a counter party [in derivatives contracts]. Given its
outsized exposure in the derivatives market and two
other financial engineering products, a credit downgrade
could have a major impact on the company's revenue
producing capability and possibly the [financial]
system."

- It's probably nothing to worry about, right?

******

Gandalf the White

(02/14/2002; 17:09:53 MDT - Msg ID: 70036)

PRICE CONTEST !!! OOPS !!! <;-(

SORRY MK and ALL -- See what happens when you look at the Jan 2002 calendar !
Thanks to both Canuck Gold and Waverider !!!
==
Canuck Gold (02/14/02; 15:16:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 70022)
Contest
PS. I'm assuming the contest is for the February contract this year because the 25th isn't on a Friday. Should that have been the 22nd?
CG
===
Waverider (02/14/02; 15:13:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 70021)
*************$307.70**************
BTW: Gandolf - my calender tells me that February 25th is a Monday. Closing date is Thursday Feb. 21st, and settlement price for Friday Feb. 22nd? Thanks, and Cheers! Contests are always great fun!
+++++++
SORRY all -- working a Graveyard shift and then trying to think the next morning has an effect on the O'le Wiz !!
===
YES -- this is the Feb 2002 COMEX Contract that ends on Feb. 22, 2002 and the END of Contest entries will be Thursday 21st at HIGH NOON Denver, Colorado time.
===
Thanks all for the great start !!
BUT -- these entries need to be changed to meet the "tenths" RULE !
--
The CoinGuy (02/14/02; 16:37:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 70034)
*******$296.75*******
--
Tommy P (02/14/02; 14:47:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 70018)
******$320.25**********
sorry
Tommy P (02/14/02; 14:41:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 70017)
My price $320.25
let get in on!
****AND Tommy P -- do you have more than three words of dialog ? COME ON -- tell us all what you really think!
---
<;-)

The CoinGuy

(02/14/2002; 17:14:39 MDT - Msg ID: 70037)

Gandalf....

Please change mine to 296.70. Must have read those instructions a little too fast...

TCG

anotheraussie

(02/14/2002; 17:26:34 MDT - Msg ID: 70038)

(No Subject)

Most posters on this forum continually bemoan the obvious deception that Wall street Analysts, CFOs, CEOs etc is perpetrating on the investing public. I have got to ask. Do really think this behaviour is only in the investing arena. Money/Wealth rules the world. Where money is concerned most will do whatever it takes to either increase it or at least maintain it regardless of what effect this has on other people. 'Do unto others what you would have them do unto you' has no meaning in todays society. This attitude will be the undoing of the worlds financial system and so will the society we have now. Black Blade's continued warning to get the essentials in order is a poignant one.

balzac

(02/14/2002; 17:28:36 MDT - Msg ID: 70039)

CONTEST

Balzac My guess is 304.2

Gandalf the White

(02/14/2002; 17:31:04 MDT - Msg ID: 70040)

THE Coinguy !

Not a problemo!!
As have told the Hobbits, "Everyone is allowed one mistake."
I have made mine EARLY in the contest.
<;-)

balzac

(02/14/2002; 17:34:42 MDT - Msg ID: 70041)

CONTEST

BALZAC and I stand corrected!!!*******304.2*******

Gandalf the White

(02/14/2002; 17:43:31 MDT - Msg ID: 70042)

OK you lurkers and wallflowers ! Join the CONTEST !

Not to make an example of Sir Balzac, BUT -- he wrote:
==
balzac (02/14/02; 17:28:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 70039)
CONTEST
Balzac My guess is 304.2
===
WHAT he really means to have written is:

*******304.2******** AND the reason that I believe the price of gold will be such is + (and say another five profound words of wisdom !!) One need not write a BOOK, but let us hear your thoughts. <;-)
--
AND ALSO, come on you LURKERS -- I can see you in my Crystal Ball !! How about getting a password and making your first post !! What say you Big John D. and J.E.D. ?
==
Let us see how many GUESSES we can get in this Contest !
The Wiz will award a golden surprise to all posters over #100, BUT, DON'T WAIT too long or the "good numbers" will be taken.

USAGOLD

(02/14/2002; 17:47:25 MDT - Msg ID: 70043)

Horatio. . . .

Important info on JP/Chase. Thanks.

The downgrade of Enron's bond rating prompted the famous phone call from Robert Rubin to the Bush Treasury Department. Why? Because it was the terminal event for Enron. These trading systems feed on credit. Take it away and the edifice collapses. Charlie Peabody is right: "The potential ramifications are enormous both for J.P. Morgan itself and for the U.S.
financial system broadly." He says that because he understands what happened to Enron. The mention of JP/Chase's ability to act as a counterparty is also important and goes directly to the heart of the gold market. In other words, can they deliver on their promises to everyone relying on them to make their gold positions good?

Major news. I would think that this would accelerate the drive for physical perhaps as early as tonight in Asia.

Pizz. . . .Thoughts??

balzac

(02/14/2002; 17:55:14 MDT - Msg ID: 70044)

REGARDING THE CONTEST:

If we are able to derive anything from statistics, the guesses are now 11 above $300. and 4 below. This must mean a bull market or perhaps only golden dreams.

Gandalf the White

(02/14/2002; 18:02:55 MDT - Msg ID: 70045)

The COMEX February '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST

THE RULES (revised) --
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of
(GC2G) on the date of Friday the 22th of February.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "stars" *****
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as *****$543.2*****
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, Feb. 21th.
GOOD LUCK !
====
PROGRESS REPORT !!
GUESSES in order of DECENDING Value

****$379.0**** sstins (02/14/02; 14:34:25MT msg#: 70015

****$352.2**** goldquest (02/14/02; 13:52:51MT msg#: 70010

****$318.2**** A Canadian (02/14/02; 14:36:41MT msg#: 70016

****$316.3**** slingshot (02/14/02; 14:22:58MT msg#: 70012

****$312.5**** darkhorse (02/14/02; 13:35:52MT msg#: 70009

****$308.1**** goldenpeace(02/14/02;13:22:48MT msg#: 70008

****$307.7**** Waverider(02/14/02; 15:13:23MT msg#: 70021

****$306.1**** EagleOne (02/14/02; 14:27:04MT msg#: 70014

****$304.2**** balzac (02/14/02; 17:34:42MT msg#: 70041

****$303.8**** uponroof (02/14/02; 14:24:30MT msg#: 70013

****$302.5**** Canuck Gold (02/14/02; 15:09:18MT msg#: 70019

****$299.0**** Carl H (02/14/02; 14:20:24MT msg#: 70011

****$296.7**** The CoinGuy (02/14/02; 17:14:39MT msg#: 70037

****$290.0**** HOOSIER GOLDBUG (02/14/02;15:50:12MTmsg#: 70031
****$289.9**** miner49er (02/14/02; 15:30:03MT msg#: 70026
===

Guesses awaiting revision --
****$320.25 ****Tommy P (02/14/02; 14:47:32MT msg#: 70018
====

Black Blade

(02/14/2002; 18:03:01 MDT - Msg ID: 70046)

GM to Lay Off Up to 2,850 Employees

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020214/business_autos_generalmotors_dc_1.html
Snippit:

DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GM), the world's largest automaker, on Thursday said it would lay off 1,100 employees at its Linden, New Jersey plant and up to 1,750 employees in Orion Township, Michigan.

Black Blade: More "Bones" off to the growing "Bone Pile". BTW, you just gotta love those boyz at the BLS and their "Seasonally" adjusted statistics. The Recession (New Depression) is deepening.

TownCrier

(02/14/2002; 18:04:33 MDT - Msg ID: 70047)

Little by little it all unfolds...

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020214/n14273773_1.htmlA full year ago I offered a projection that this trend would develop more fully. The central bankers' primary charge of price stability depends largely on the "quality" of money. In the long run, privately "owned" debt is less dubious than national/government debt because the pain of private bankruptcy is typically more fearful than the "pain" of emission easily utilized by national monetary entities.

(Comparing this with Europe, the supporting structure of the independent ECB attempts to parallel this somewhat by interacting with each nation as though it were a private corporation -- each with the ability to borrow privately if in need, but lacking the power of sovereign emission.)

From this article:

---------OTTAWA, Feb 14 (Reuters) - Corporate debt issues will likely play a bigger part in the Canadian fixed income market as the government reduces its issuance of securities, the Bank of Canada said on Thursday.

``Privately issued debt should play an expanded role in the future,'' the central bank said in its winter 2001-02 edition of the Bank of Canada review.

Robert Follis, corporate bond analyst at Scotia Capital, agrees with the central bank's outlook and said he expects that is ``probably going to be at the expense of Canadas (government issues).''----------------

Gandalf the White

(02/14/2002; 18:09:33 MDT - Msg ID: 70048)

Thanks SIR Balzac ! -- The CONTEST !!

ALL Guesses Must also have a discussion of YOUR THOUGHTS !
Good luck to all, and now the Wiz must go BATTLE the Orcs again tonight. LATER --
<;-)

golden rule

(02/14/2002; 18:10:01 MDT - Msg ID: 70049)

contest

929.00

Cor Tauri

(02/14/2002; 18:12:46 MDT - Msg ID: 70050)

So, Anduril, do you have an opinion regarding

my thougts to strive to hold as much dollar value in silver as I do in gold, no matter what the ratio is?
That is if silver goes down in price vs gold, to buy more silver and if gold goes down in price vs silver to buy more gold?

Or do you feel that there is no merit to holding any amount of physical silver?

Do you own any silver?

sourdough

(02/14/2002; 18:13:42 MDT - Msg ID: 70051)

Tocom futures

Could somebody tell me when is the first date that intention to take delivery on gold futures contracts in Japan could be made? Is it before the end of the contest?
Is it this weekend Bush goes to Japan?

MarkeTalk

(02/14/2002; 18:21:32 MDT - Msg ID: 70052)

GATA on C-SPAN, Black Blade

I received a couple of phone calls today about GATA's press conference yesterday in Washington held at the National Press Club. C-SPAN was there to cover the event which was commendable. I hear that it was just superb. Black Blade posted earlier today that he was watching the program--at 2: 50 am!!! Most of us mere mortals were in dreamland at that hour and thus we were unable to view it. Good friend and poster, Buena Fe, told me that he contacted the Washington office of C-SPAN to request a re-broadcast at a decent hour as well as to request the program be put on the web. I thought the suggestion to be a splendid idea and so I am making this suggestion public for everyone to read.

If you want to contact C-SPAN by telephone and request a re-broadcast or web-accessible viewing, then call (202) 737-3220.

Truthcaster

(02/14/2002; 18:25:45 MDT - Msg ID: 70053)

Okay you got my attention

Hello, This is my first post here but a long time reader of the great input by you all! I think that the FED's will`
try to hold on here around the 300 mark till the last of the
big shorts are out that plus a little rally in the stockmarket places me at ****298.70**** for the contest
Best luck to all.... Truthcaster

VanRip

(02/14/2002; 18:25:51 MDT - Msg ID: 70054)

*****300.10*****

Too much power still exists to keep 300 from being penetrated decisively at this time. The 300 lid will be difficult to dislodge.

TownCrier

(02/14/2002; 18:28:23 MDT - Msg ID: 70055)

In light of my previous post, America has a unique problem to deal with

Advent of the euro reduces global use of the dollar, thus putting it over the hill on its fiat currency timeline. Speaking globally, this points toward a crippling deflation of the dollar that the U.S. monetary officials will fight tooth and nail to save the banks and domestic economy. Movement toward domestic hyperinflation is the predictible outcome from the goverment's curative medicine.

This is why it is imperative that you save your wealth with gold and not with contracts that typically default in an monetary conflagration.

Not long ago I remarked how the Fed had increased the size of the once absent, now common, long-term (28-day) repo operations in it arsenal to author monetary policy. I had commented how $2 billion had yielded to more typical $4-6 billion. Today, the Fed pulled a $7 billion 28-day repo out of its hat.

Little by little, you see it all unfold.

R.

R Powell

(02/14/2002; 18:30:46 MDT - Msg ID: 70056)

Contest Entries

Gandalf, good wizard, have you overlooked the very first number entered by Invisible Hand. It was, I belive, $3,257.50 but was not included on your recent list. I remember it as it is the exact number I was going to enter but Sir Hand beat me to the keyboard. Apparently we both read the entrails of Rhode Island Red chickens for numerical divination. I shall perform two more readings and enter the average.
A wizard of your centuries should not be working the graveyard shift. I hope this only temporary. With POG in four figures, perhaps only a memory?
Thanks for being the Official Scorekeeper.
Rich

VanRip

(02/14/2002; 18:41:11 MDT - Msg ID: 70057)

MarkeTalk

Chris Powell emailed subscribers to GATA earlier suggesting that those of us inerested in a rebroadcast of the GATA luncheon at a more reasonable hour write or call C-Span. They responded to my email and noted my concern with a standard response. I suspect they received quite a few requests.

Chris has now informed us to check cspan's schedule, since they may indeed rebroadcast the program. Also, there is a strong possibility that tapes of the program my be available soon.

MarkeTalk

(02/14/2002; 18:43:47 MDT - Msg ID: 70058)

Silver market update

It has been a while since my last post about silver. See message #68407 dated 01/17/02. In that post, I warned that the lease rates at 25-30% would attract some silver out of the nooks and crannies and that the price itself would be vulnerable to a sharp correction. I mentioned the 61.8% Fibonacci level of $4.30/ounce as the most likely level to stop the decline. Actually, silver dipped briefly to about $4.25/ounce and now has rebounded smartly to $4.53 (March Comex).

Two things have come to my attention today that bear reporting: (1) Silver lease rates jumped 2% overnight (which is not earth-shattering by itself) and (2) silver warehouse stocks dropped overnight by 1.5 million ounces (if my source is correct) to roughly 101 million ounces as of today. Again, nothing earth-shattering but both of these do portend the resumption of an upward trend which took silver to $4.85/ounce on the last run. The rumor going around is that the Buffet problem has not been solved--only temporarily put on hold--and that the same people who caused the price to rise are now back in full swing. I want to emphasize that this is simply a RUMOR, not fact.

If JP Morgan Chase or Goldman Sachs or whoever agreed to be a third-party guarantor of the lease arrangement between Warren Buffet and Enron ( my sources tell me it to be Enron but nobody knows for sure), then there is still a lot of exposure because I don't think all 50 million ounces (or whatever the exact amount is) was covered in the last run. Stay tuned. Things are just starting to get interesting once again.

VanRip

(02/14/2002; 18:51:33 MDT - Msg ID: 70059)

GATA rebroadcast

I should add that the more calls or emails C-Span receives asking for a rebroadcast of the GATA luncheon, the more likely they will do it.

Frosty

(02/14/2002; 18:55:58 MDT - Msg ID: 70060)

****Contest****

****$274.90**** Do not underestimate the power of the Central Banks!

Canuck

(02/14/2002; 19:02:40 MDT - Msg ID: 70061)

What can get better?

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/picks021502.html-snip-

While many people are saying that the worst is all behind us, I don't see it that way at all. The 90% problem discussed earlier is something we face in many areas of the economy. Companies are already as aggressive as they can be with their accounting. Options aren't being accounted for. P/E ratios are either very near, or way above, all-time highs depending on whose figures you use. Unemployment is still ridiculously low for a recession. Energy prices are back down. Home ownership is at all-time highs. Home equity is at all-time lows even as home prices are at all-time highs. Interest rates are at 40-year lows and everybody has already done a ReFi on their house. Credit is available everywhere. The savings rate is nil. Consumer debt is at all-time highs. Gas is around a buck. Everybody's driving a new car they don't need but got for 0% financing. The dollar is still amazingly strong, even though the trade deficit is enormous. On and on.

Chris Powell

(02/14/2002; 19:02:54 MDT - Msg ID: 70062)

GATA conference is viewable at C-SPAN Internet site

http://www.c-span.org/business_economy/ 8:43p ET Thursday, February 14, 2002

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

C-SPAN has just made available on the Internet the
broadcast of GATA's conference in Washington on
Tuesday. If your Internet browser has a media
player program, you should be able to watch and
listen. Go to this page:

http://www.c-span.org/business_economy/

About halfway down the page, you'll see this paragraph:

Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee: "The Gold Standard."
Tuesday, February 12, 2002 -- Washington, DC
Speakers: Catherine Austin Fitts, President, Solari and
former assistant secretary of housing; William Murphy III,
chair, GATA; Chris Powell, GATA secretary/treasurer.
Length: 1 hr. 50 min.

Click on "watch" next to that paragraph and, with luck,
you'll be able to watch and listen to the whole conference.

You can purchase from C-SPAN a videotape of the
conference by going here:

http://www.c-spanstore.com/

If you're interested, you probably should act quickly, since
C-SPAN doesn't keep this stuff around more than a week
or two.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

Econoclast

(02/14/2002; 19:05:57 MDT - Msg ID: 70063)

I'm climbing out on the limb!

******$437.50******* Yes, that's a 4It's an old and symbolic name, but it's time is up. There is no alternative. JPM is going down and they're taking all their gold derivatives and counterparty guarantees with them. Go ahead, sue the bankrupt, empty shell. That's when people will start thinking about the reality of physical a little more. It's no accident that all the derivatives are concentrated in one place (except the ones they offed onto Enron).

By next Friday, maybe not, but definately coming to a financial market near you.

Black Blade

(02/14/2002; 19:06:58 MDT - Msg ID: 70064)

Gold Holds Steady at $300.50/oz.

http://www.thebulliondesk.com/
Both Bulliondesk and Kitco have Gold over $300/oz. Also futures at MRCI show Gold holding up as well. The TOCOM trading is getting well underway so we should see strong support. Wait until next week when the Chinese (HK, Taiwan, and Mainland) reopen for trading.

Of course the real culprit has been London. The Brits must be trying to make Skipper Tony Blair and First Mate Eddie "Little Buddy" George look like they're not complete idiots for giving away the people's Gold.

- Black Blade

miner49er

(02/14/2002; 19:16:47 MDT - Msg ID: 70065)

TownCrier @ 70055

"...contracts that typically default in a monetary conflagration."

That's it!

Finally... an end to the discussion: inflation or deflation.

The monetary dilemma we are heading for is: conflagration... (after all it's all supposed to burn, isn't it...?)

cheers R...
miner

slingshot

(02/14/2002; 19:29:44 MDT - Msg ID: 70066)

Anduril Msg#69983

Childre chasing Silver RainbowsThe want for Gold once upon a time discarded silver.

Why do I buy if this is the case? There are a few reasons.
Silver is dirt cheap as gold.Compare the ratio to the stock market, should I buy stocks? No I buy Gold. Need not go into which retains value. Silver on the other hand may be valued using other means which do not relate to gold. I agree with that point of veiw. If we all agree that gold will climb to $500.00 an oz. who will be able to pay that price. What are the masses going to do to preserve some of their wealth?
I'm betting they are going to buy silver. When there is no more gold to be brought or too high a price for the average person to buy, they will turn to silver. They know this word as good as the word gold.
I do not think silver will move till gold reaches a high enough price to pull it along.A ratio of 16 to 1 is reasonable but a ratio of 10 to 1 would be not impossible.
I have said before that in this arena weak hearts will not prevail. If your a card player you never go to the table if you don't think you will win. Never play with what you can not afford to lose. Most of all have some fun. Thank you for your advise. Maybe you would go out and purchase a 10 oz. bar of silver and hang on to it. Not much invested. Think of it as playing the lottery. Cheers!
Slingshot

Trapper

(02/14/2002; 19:44:13 MDT - Msg ID: 70067)

A contest

Wow! I'm been working all day so I'm not sure if my guess is timely or no but what the heck. *****$292.80***** and my reasoning is that I feel this is where the shorts need to cover at and there is still many miles to go. The big boys MUST keep gold off the radar screen to pull off the sneak attack. Good luck all.
RJ

Siochain

(02/14/2002; 19:54:37 MDT - Msg ID: 70068)

Golden Dreams

Well gold has tested 308.50 ...now maybe it is time to come up against some stronger levels $310 and maybe 4-5 more

Also Japan will be getting closer to a critical March date ....SM may drop...news on NVDA is worrisome and others will come out though they are doing everything to keep people in stocks....and then of course the wildcards which hopefully won't be played>>>> escalating Middle East violence and/or acts of terrorism ...or opposite >>removal of bin Laden from the world stage(for which I'll be happy & SM will jump)

Soooo...I'll vote more my heart and say we take another run and get thru next resistance (we will but it is a matter of when) ...$309.50

Logic says lower...but hey...this is Valentine's Day

Have a Happy Golden one!!!

mikal

(02/14/2002; 19:57:54 MDT - Msg ID: 70069)

C-Span

This is great, all the big media cautiously pulling back the curtain to reveal gold, however reservedly- Marketwatch Online, Business Week, Barrons, Fortune, etc. And pleaze don't anyvone tell uz about zee Homeland Zeecurity poleeze moneetoring Z-Span's vones toonight. Our gold cannot be tracked down so easily. Confiscating mines is much easier and more popular, thanks to "national security interests", executive orders, "emergencies", and martial lawyers. Also, what's up with the moribund low DOW and NASDAQ market volumes. UK really ought to cancel that early March gold giveway, but she cannot dissappoint her chosen customers, can she?

Siochain

(02/14/2002; 20:07:10 MDT - Msg ID: 70070)

****

Ok just to make it official *****309.5*****

neer-do-well

(02/14/2002; 20:14:29 MDT - Msg ID: 70071)

hello

1st time on this forum. Lots of good info here and very enjoyable reads. The topic the other day was what to do in the after-math of disaster, one thing I have a little experience in.
By all means get a led flashlight, waterproof and they last like 30 days with one set of batteries.
There isn't any need to add bleach to water, ugh, just put clean water ( preferably rain water) into 1 gallon plastic milk containers and put them away. They will keep indefinitly.
I've used water kept this way for 2 years, it's fine. Just make sure the water is clean going into clean jugs. Avoid tap water for drinking!

Black Blade

(02/14/2002; 20:16:22 MDT - Msg ID: 70072)

Barrick Reports Fourth-Quarter Loss After Charges

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/020215/5/j8to.html
Snippit:

TORONTO (Reuters) - Canada's Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) announced a fourth-quarter loss on Thursday after one-time costs related to its purchase of U.S-based Homestake and a Canadian mine lawsuit.

Black Blade: So much for the "brilliant" bean counter that convinced this Mega-Hedger to sell forward. To lose cash in the current environment with a rising POG is absolutely pathetic.

Trapper

(02/14/2002; 20:22:41 MDT - Msg ID: 70073)

Siochain

Reading your post on your "if the ballon goes up" plans I was encouraged. I to have "that feeling", the one you can't explain but it sure seems real. Actual studies have been done that subject. The military did some too.
With reference on your firearms purchase, first bravo, I'm glad you are using your rights. Try to find someone who is trained to teach you. I train police as part of my living and getting a good coach is important. Firearms are just a tool but a serious tool. Practice often, let it be second nature to you. If I can help in any way please ask. Live small.
RJ

Chris Powell

(02/14/2002; 20:27:31 MDT - Msg ID: 70074)

Rep. Paul introduces legislation to stop gold price suppression

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1012Rep. Ron Paul introduces legislation to stop
suppression of the gold price:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1012

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

mikal

(02/14/2002; 20:34:01 MDT - Msg ID: 70075)

Mines

Proportionately large windfall profits taxes on US mines may soon "protect the sustainable and productive use of our limited national and strategic resources. Resources confiscated when Clinton and others designated large tracts of prime forest and mineral land- federally protected national parks, wilderness areas, national forests, etc. Guess who gets the development rights, charters, deeds, permits, and finally preferential tax treatment and gov't. consulting contracts? Care for a position in the new Homeland Resources Agency?

wiley

(02/14/2002; 20:41:56 MDT - Msg ID: 70076)

Contest

*****$317.90*****Only because this seat is not taken.

darkhorse

(02/14/2002; 20:44:57 MDT - Msg ID: 70077)

Rep Ron Paul

A chilling thought just occurred to me.... After reading the link to Rep Paul's news release, a flash of MLK and RFK went thru my mind (ya might wanna throw in Malcolm X, JFK and...I'm sorry I don't remember his name...the Enron exec that "killed himself"). Does anybody else get the idea some people might take a serious disliking to this? I apologize for seeming a bit on the melodramatic side, but....

Waverider

(02/14/2002; 21:09:27 MDT - Msg ID: 70078)

Is a `March crisis' on Japan's horizon?

http://www.asahi.com/english/politics/K2002021500678.htmlSnippit:
"Loan problems and deflation are once again named the main culprits for the horrid economic situation.

``Deflation'' and ``latent losses'' have been key buzzwords among market players and policy-makers trying desperately to turn around the ailing economy. But those words are giving way to a more familiar term: crisis."

Waverider: This is another good article outlining Japan's boiling caldron of economic woes. No wonder indeed that those smart Japanese housewives are cashing in their yen yen for Gold. Cheers!

Mythical

(02/14/2002; 21:42:32 MDT - Msg ID: 70079)

*****302.30*****

As for someone who doesn't really follow TA or fundementals, I think the latest action of Gold is quite impressive...possibly establishing a new base in the 299/300 range perhaps? Congratulations to those finally getting some performance outta those gold stocks...just hope you're converting them over to physical. Many recent factors could be considered as valid reasons for the latest surge: Japanese housewives, "Enronitis", JPMorgan, Tyco, possible war in Middle East, the rumor of Jennifer Aniston's character Rachel dying after childbirth on the season finale of "Friends"!, etc. But frankly, my guess is based on the fact that I'm tired of succumbing to my pessimistic side and that a sense of optimism is in order! Of course, they'll probably bash it down again...there I go again! *****302.30***** folks!

law

(02/14/2002; 22:17:01 MDT - Msg ID: 70080)

Contest

*****$308.70*****
The closest I can quesstimate on trend after the minor correction!!!!

Voyager

(02/14/2002; 22:40:46 MDT - Msg ID: 70081)

**** $312.05 ****

Nothing but optimism and for all the reasons discussed. But, I really hope Econoclast wins.

Pizz

(02/14/2002; 22:46:49 MDT - Msg ID: 70082)

USA Gold

Re: JPM Downgrades

Yes, I have thoughts, and these will be thoughts, not facts and figures or backup. Now, lets forget gold (sorry) for a few minutes, cause it's just small potatoes (little country talk) compared to the big problem.

Let's start with financial derivitives:

Derivitives are pure paper and are acting as insurance for more paper. A financial derivitive could be a bank guarantee for principal on a package of sub-prime loans that allow the package to be sold (to your pension fund; your conservative bond funds, etc.) The reverse could be a GE (or Enron, etc.) guarantee of the same and then sold to the banks, etc. It's all intertwined.

Now, let's imagine the big, big, picture. Hundreds of thousands of these paper hedge (insurances) all bet for and against the basics - stock, bonds, mortgages, and commodities, etc. All that the financial derivitives were used for were to be able to sell speculative paper at investment rates (more profit) and to sell unsaleable paper at speculative rates to keep the 90's financial velocity roaring ahead (much more profit). In a nut shell, a huge chunk of the paper assets held by investors, (BANKS, MUTUAL FUNDS, PENSION FUNDS, etc.) are being held up in price by ratings based upon dervitives. Milken's protege's have just been selling junk and AIR in a new and more sofisticated way on a much bigger scale.

Now, let's imagine that all the derivitives go away without being replaced. (This is happening thru bankrupsies (Enron) and time (expiration) and the fact that anyone with any brains is not going to write them anymore). Now all this insured paper is "naked". So now, what is it really worth?? The rating agencies know, and they're starting to downgrade. Now it gets interesting.

Deflation of assets, cashing in of assets by investors, and most importantly, the inability to raise as much liquidity as cheaply thru bond and stock offerings. Here comes the stock, bond, and dollar crash as all our bloated corporations, etc. run for cash. YOU CAN'T CUT EXPENSES FAST ENOUGH AND SELL DEPRECIATING ASSETS (IF YOU CAN FIND A BUYER FOR THE MORE ILLIQUID ONES) FAST ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE DRAIN OF YOUR CASH in a deflationary depression. Especially when you have the bulk of your capital, thats supposed to be there to cover a recession, tied up in little thinks like GOODWILL, etc.

Tyco didn't draw down 14 billion in bank loans because they are about to go bankrupt IMHO. They grabbed the cheap money as quick as they could before the banks could cancel the agreements because the banks are becoming illiquid just as in Japan.

Are the downgrades a problem? Bigger than any PM derivitives problem. Will gold go up because of it? Oh yeah. (But not as quick and fast as WE think or would like.)

A few post back I said Enron was my linch pin for the slide to start, but lets now call Enron the handle on your camode.
There's a lot of paper in the bowl and the rating agencies are starting to pull the handle.

Hope I make some sense.

Pizz

Grubstaker

(02/14/2002; 22:50:18 MDT - Msg ID: 70083)

CONTEST

****$292.0****

Pizz

(02/14/2002; 22:52:31 MDT - Msg ID: 70084)

Contest

*****319.90****

Mr Gresham

(02/14/2002; 23:01:04 MDT - Msg ID: 70085)

Music in mind

All day: "...bubblin' just under three hun-dred
just like a mighty dread..."
to paraphrase Mr. Marley -- there, now maybe I can get that tune ("Play I some music...") out of my head.

And now, with great relish, down the page to read Pizz...

Shermag

(02/14/2002; 23:09:45 MDT - Msg ID: 70086)

Seems to be a determination to hold Gold under $300 today

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.htmlViewing the Kitco chart of todays gold spot, it looks like someone has put a clamp on gold at $300. Most pronounced today.

Horatio

(02/14/2002; 23:24:13 MDT - Msg ID: 70087)

Barrick Details...a more balanced view

TORONTO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb. 14, 2002--Barrick Gold Corporation
(NYSE:ABX) (LSE:ABX) (PARIS:ABX) (SWISS:ABX) (TSE:ABX) today reported operating
results for 2001, with record production of 6.1 million ounces of gold at cash costs of US$162 per
ounce, while proven and probable gold reserves increased to 82.3 million ounces.
"With the Homestake merger completed," said Barrick President and Chief Executive Officer
Randall Oliphant, "we have eight major properties on four continents, a promising exploration
portfolio and -- with our strong balance sheet -- we have the ability to grow organically or through
disciplined acquisitions."
For the fourth quarter of 2001, the Company reported net income of US$55 million (US11
cents per share) before one-time charges. After recording costs associated with the merger of
US$117 million (US$107 million after tax) and a provision for the judgement rendered in the Troilus
lawsuit of US$59 million (US$42 million after tax), Barrick reported a fourth quarter loss of US$94
million (US17 cents per share). The Company has appealed the Troilus judgment.
Barrick's earnings for 2001 were US$245 million (US46 cents per share) compared to
US$168 million in 2000 (US32 cents per share), before the charges referred to above. Net income
was US$96 million (US18 cents per share) compared to a loss of US$1,189 million (US$2.22 per
share) in 2000. Operating cash flows were US$721 million (US$1.35 per share) in 2001 compared
to US$940 million (US$1.76 per share) in 2000.
Premium Gold Sales Program
The Company achieved a premium over the spot price of gold for the 14th year in a row,
generating US$289 million in additional revenue in 2001. Barrick realized US$341 per ounce on its
gold sales (61 percent of pro forma production); a premium of US$70 per ounce over the average
spot price of US$271. Overall, the combined company realized US$317 per ounce, a US$46 per
ounce premium over the spot price of gold.
The total number of forward sales contracts stands at 18.2 million ounces at December 31,
2001, including the addition of 1.9 million ounces from Homestake. This equates to 22 percent of
reserves, which is in line with Barrick's historic average of 21 percent.
For 2002, the Company currently intends to deliver 50 percent of its production at US$365
per ounce with the balance sold on the spot market. Considering current market conditions and the
larger production base with the merger, the Company lowered the percentage of production
delivered into the Program to 50 percent.
Production and cost targets in line for 2001, reserves increase
Gold production in 2001 increased to a record 6.1 million ounces, from 5.95 million ounces
in 2000 for the combined Barrick/Homestake. Total cash costs per ounce were US$162 per
ounce, compared to US$155 per ounce in 2000.
For 2002, Barrick expects production of 5.7 million ounces of gold at total cash costs of
US$167 per ounce. The lower production is due principally to the planned closure of several mines.
The Company reported proven and probable gold reserves for 2001 of 82.3 million ounces,
up from 79.3 million ounces of gold for the combined Barrick/Homestake in 2000, after producing
more than 6 million ounces during the year. Reserve increases at Veladero, Bulyanhulu and the
Cowal project more than offset lower reserves in North and South America including a 1.7 million
ounce decrease of reserves at the Meikle Mine.
"We are pleased with our increased gold reserves and we have plans to advance our
development projects," said John Carrington, Vice Chairman and Chief Operating Officer. "Overall,
each of our operations made strides to improve their operating contribution."
Outlook
Production for 2002 is expected to be 5.7 million ounces of gold, of which one half is
expected to be sold at US$365 per ounce under the Company's Premium Gold Sales Program,
with the balance being sold on the spot market. Cash costs and total production costs are expected
to be US$167 and US$254 per ounce, respectively. In addition, the Company expects
administration and exploration expenses to decline to US$55 million each. Interest expense is
expected to be US$55 million, as the Company will no longer be capitalizing interest, with the
completion of Bulyanhulu and Rodeo and the deferral of Pascua-Lama. Capital spending is
expected to decrease to less than US$230 million (excluding non-cash amortization of deferred
mining costs).
Barrick is also focused on the opportunity the merger brings to a unified Pascua-Lama and
Veladero district, with 25 million ounces of proven and probable reserves. The Company
anticipates both capital and operating cost synergies between the two deposits, which are located
just 5 kilometers apart. At Veladero, a feasibility study for a phase one, valley-fill heap leach
operation is expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2002. Further optimization of the
project and permitting work will take place during the year.
Barrick enters 2002 with the strongest balance sheet in the gold mining industry, high quality
assets, a cash and short-term investment position of US$733 million and virtually no net debt.
Certain statements included herein, including those regarding, production, realized gold prices
and costs constitute "forward looking statements" within the meaning of the United States Private
Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward looking statements involve known and
unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, performance or
achievements of Barrick or of the gold mining industry to be materially different from future results,
performance or achievements expressed or implied by those forward looking statements. These
risks, uncertainties and other factors include, but are not limited to, changes in the worldwide price
of gold or certain other commodities and currencies and the risks involved in the exploration,
development and mining business. These factors are discussed in greater detail in Barrick's most
recent Annual Information Form and Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial and
Operating Results" on file with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and Canadian
provincial securities regulatory authorities.

Pizz

(02/14/2002; 23:24:54 MDT - Msg ID: 70088)

Hey Mr. Gresham

You just love watching (reading) me stick my neck out a mile (grin).

Topaz

(02/14/2002; 23:39:21 MDT - Msg ID: 70089)

High Noon in Denver??

Probably too late*******$298.4********
Why? - I just paid $305 ozzie equivalents and I ALWAYS buy at the TOP.

LimitUp

(02/14/2002; 23:41:07 MDT - Msg ID: 70090)

Contest

*********$1500.0*********** Why? Because at $1500 I will sell the first ounce. And I'm in a big hurry.

Belgian

(02/16/2002; 00:44:15 MDT - Msg ID: 70178)

Carl H / Trapper

There are only two (2) *Universal* tangibles that can define (have the power to) the price/value/buying power of the imperial US$ : OIL and GOLD !!
One Barril and one Ounce "can" decide what the dollar tide will be ! That is exactly why the M.E. + Caspian region (now) are under increased siege ! That's why paper-mountains keep on trying to price the Precious.

The euro (euro-concept) has incorporated OIL and GOLD.
The euro has 2 strategic options : 1/ frontal confrontation and massive exchange of dollar-reserves for Gold (or euros).
2/ permanent stealthly pressure on the dollar with stabilized Gold-Valuation.

Voila, make your choice and just imagine you are the managing director of Euroland Inc. A concept >>> a strategy >>> and flexibility ! The results can't be timed but only the final outcome must have an increasing amount of believers. More and more Political Will and some circumstantial luck. Nice WE to all.

Black Blade

(02/16/2002; 02:22:15 MDT - Msg ID: 70179)

Verizon Wireless, Sprint PCS to Cut Jobs

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020215/business_telecoms_wireless_jobs_dc_1.html
Snippit:

PHILADELPHIA (Reuters) - Verizon Wireless and Sprint PCS Group (NYSE:PCS), the No. 1 and No. 4 U.S. wireless telephone companies, respectively, will cut a total of 4,000 jobs as the nation's wireless industry faces a slowdown in subscriber growth after years of frenetic gains.

Black Blade: More phone "Bones" of to the "Bone Pile" in this supposed "recovering" economy.

Black Blade

(02/16/2002; 02:40:12 MDT - Msg ID: 70180)

Bush's turn to grasp Japan's economic corrosion

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020216/sp271902_2.html
Snippit:

TOKYO, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Japan's economic self-destruction has long ceased to shock the outside world, and expectations are low that President George W. Bush might somehow shake Tokyo out of its lethargy when he arrives on Sunday for a three-day visit.

Japan remains the world's second-biggest economy and its largest capital exporter, and economists said it would be dangerous to underestimate the risks to global growth if the corrosion of the past decade ends in cataclysm. ``Unfortunately, its problems, especially its debt problems, are still getting worse. Its condition is sufficiently serious that it does pose one of the few serious risks to worldwide recovery,'' Penner said.

Even more pressing, other economists argue, is the rapid build-up in non-performing loans on the books of the nation's banks under the twin impact of recession and deflation. Some brokers reckon many financial institutions are in effect insolvent and worry about a run on the banks when a blanket guarantee on deposits is removed in April.

If Japan were to try to export its way out of trouble by pushing the yen lower rather than enduring painful reforms, its neighbours -- still smarting from the region's 1997 financial crisis -- would be up in arms. ``Middle classes and politicians in emerging Asia could get really angry at Japan for exporting adjustment when they've suffered,'' Posen said. ``This could destabilise some regimes and worsen trade conflicts with Japan.''

Adam Posen, a senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics in Washington, said that until last autumn he had expected Japan to continue to muddle through but now saw a 50 percent chance of an outright crisis in the next three to six months. Such a crisis would entail a sharp fall in the yen and a spike in long-term Japanese bond yields, inducing extreme volatility in international capital markets and a flight of money from Asia for the safe haven of the United States.

Black Blade: Now really, what can Dubya do. Maybe he'll puke in Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's lap like old good ol' Dad. Meanwhile Japanese are likely to keep buying Gold - maybe even kick up the buying frenzy a notch or two.

Black Blade

(02/16/2002; 03:08:30 MDT - Msg ID: 70181)

Crises cause gold rush

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0,,145-208752,00.html
Mark Atherton reports on the metal's sudden rise in popularity

Snippit:

INVESTORS seeking a safe haven for their money after the upheavals of the past six months have helped to push the price of gold above 300 dollars an ounce for the first time in two years. The events of September 11, the collapse of major US firms, such as the energy giant Enron, and the huge �500 million financial fraud at Allied Irish Banks have triggered a mood of uncertainty that has seen demand for gold soar.

Interest in buying the precious metal as an investment has rocketed on the back of a 10 per cent rise in the gold price in just one week. Mike Marsh, trading manager at Baird & Co, a producer of precious metals in the East End of London, says: "Investors are buying gold in the form of jewellery, bullion coins such as krugerrands and small gold bars. A 100-gramme gold bar the size of a large After Eight mint, which would have cost �680 a month ago, would now be worth �722. This price rise reflects the sharp increase in demand, and our view is that we could be at the start of a new bull market for gold.

Black Blade: Gold buying frenzy spreads to the UK. Even an increase in Gold jewelry (in spite of what the WGC says). Even at $300.00/oz. Gold is still cheap.

Black Blade

(02/16/2002; 03:27:50 MDT - Msg ID: 70182)

India leading in gold consumption

http://in.biz.yahoo.com/020215/103/1ggki.html
Snippit:

India continues to top in the demand for gold. According to World Gold Council, (WGC) during January-September 2001 it was 662.3 tonnes while it was 855 tonnes for the year 2000. Next comes the United States, with total consumption less than 50 per cent of the Indian consumption.

However, the global recession is driving people to turn to gold for investment and this has led to a spurt in the price of yellow metal world over. WGC has lauanched a new range of light ornaments in the market under the brand name, Collection-G, available in 30 cities in more than 100 retail shops across the country. The average price of a jewellery item in the collection is Rs 3,000, with the weight of the ornaments ranging between 5 grammes and 15 grammes. All the ornaments are hallmarked, and the price is uniform throughout the country. These machine-made 22-carat ornaments include earrings, pendants, necklaces and rings.

Black Blade: Jewelry sales of uniform purity in India is not a bad idea as investment Gold in India is traditionally in jewelry form. There had been a scandal last year as much of the jewelry was not of 22K or better when it was sold as such. At least I would hope that WGC Gold jewelry is guaranteed purity and weight.

Black Blade

(02/16/2002; 03:37:35 MDT - Msg ID: 70183)

Full Glare Of Publicity Will Focus On Chancellor Brown's Last Gold Sale

http://www.minesite.com/archives/features_archive/2002/Feb-2002/ukgoldsale130202.htm

Snippit:

In a few weeks time the British Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown, will preside over the UK's last sale of 20 tonnes of gold. He may then have many months to regret that he sold 375 tonnes of the UK's gold assets as he watches the price of bullion rise inexorably in front of his eyes. Or he may not. The present government, after all, has never apologised to the British people for wasting over �750 million on the Millennium Dome, so why change the habits of a lifetime now.

Another mistake he may come to regret is signalling the sales and carrying them out at regular intervals since July 1999. The inevitable result, as demonstrated at the last sale, was that the price Brown obtained of US$283.50/oz was US$6.50m below the overnight high. It will be very interesting to see how the bidders play it this time round and there will be another crucial difference. This time the British national newspapers will be watching. Few of them have written about gold for the last ten years or so, but the rise in price over the US$300 level has even got the Observer back on the case.

The World Gold Council is going to announce Brown's total loss as soon as possible after the next sale. Present estimates are that the loss will be around �350 million with gold at US$300/oz, but then a lot of complicated sums have to be done to work out the gains and losses of his great re-investment programme in euro, yen and dollar bonds and other instruments. One thing is certain, there will be a cracking loss in euros which will point up another strange dichotomy in the Brown ethos. He appears to be against the euro, and yet invests in it. The argument that paper currency represents a string of IOUs, and disasters can happen as in Argentina at the moment, goes over his head and he cannot take on board that gold acts as a sheet anchor in financial storms.

Black Blade: Good article. Poor ol' Skipper Tony Blair and First Mate Eddie "Little Buddy" George will have a lot of explaining to do to the Brit people if the light is brightly focused on these two cockroaches.

Operative

(02/16/2002; 03:47:42 MDT - Msg ID: 70184)

(No Subject)

And the winner is ...?THREE Cheers for the Japanese Housewives who have formed the
latest chapter of Another's Fan Club. Can one
not follow in thier tiny footsteps?
ZERO Effect of 11 Fed Rate Cuts.
THREE Cheers for GATA and it's band of supporters.
ONE Golden Angel
***** $303.10 *****

Black Blade

(02/16/2002; 05:39:12 MDT - Msg ID: 70185)

US planes rain dollars on Afghanistan

http://www.timesofindia.com/articleshow.asp?art_id=961383
Snippit:

HAMAN, Pakistan: US aircraft over southern Afghanistan have scattered $100 bills tucked into envelopes bearing a picture of President George W. Bush, witnesses said on Thursday. Some of the envelopes were carried by the wind and fluttered to earth over the Pakistan border town of Chaman, sending people scrambling for the cash.

"C-130 planes dropped white-coloured paper envelopes with a photo of President Bush and two bills of $100 each," said Abdul Hadi, a resident of Chaman on the border with southern Afghanistan. "They are actually dropping these over areas across the border but a few were carried away by the wind to this side," Hadi said. "People pushed and fought with each other to get their hands on the envelopes."

Black Blade: Economic stimulus package for Afghanistan? I guess Gold dropped from a C-130 could be a bit dangerous. It musta been a sight. Wouldn't be a kick if they exchanged those $100 bills for Gold?

sector

(02/16/2002; 09:09:02 MDT - Msg ID: 70186)

Cali Utility Calpine...Looking Shakey

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3DLJXOQXC&live=true&tagid=IXLI0L9Z1BC
Doubts over Calpine as it cancels $17bn pipeline
By Julie Earle and Jenny Wiggins in New York
Published: February 16 2002 00:11 | Last Updated: February 16 2002 13:05

Calpine, the US energy company, said on Friday it would cancel a $17bn joint natural gas pipeline project with Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, because it had been unable to secure shipping agreements from other companies.

Both companies said neither had spent "significant capital" on the Sonoran Pipeline project, in California, which would have started operations in 2004. Both companies would continue to evaluate other opportunities to serve the growing California market, they said.

However, the news, coupled with a meeting between Calpine and its bankers next week to extend the power company's credit lines, raised questions about its future and provoked caution on Calpine bonds, analysts said. CreditSights, the independent credit research firm, said on Friday they were waiting to see confirmation of the bank line and the terms of the loan. Calpine's bonds were among the worst performers in the high yield market, losing 3.5 points to trade at 73 cents in the dollar on Friday.

Carl H

(02/16/2002; 09:53:03 MDT - Msg ID: 70187)

Foreign Policy by Jimmy Buffett

When I read Black Blade's post below about dropping $100 bills on the Afghanies, I could not help but laugh and think of a monolog from a Jimmy Buffett album from the early eighties.

Buffett suggested that we drop $5 bills on the Russians. This would then be followed by dropping mail order catalogs on them (as I recall he singled out Victoria's Secret). The Russians would then order from those catalogs and there would be world peace, we would have full employment and the Russians would have lingere to the 21st century.

Sounds to me like Jimmy Buffett should be made a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.

It also might explain why The Limited is buying back the part of Victoria's Secret that it does not own ;-)

Waverider

(02/16/2002; 10:27:19 MDT - Msg ID: 70188)

RobotGuy: Dow 10,000 Versus Gold $300

http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/update.htmSnippit:
"Washington and Wall Street are facing a real crisis in confidence. The accounting scandals, the bankruptcies, the implosion of foreign currencies in Japan and Argentina, and now Venezuela are making it more difficult to keep the coming prosperity illusion alive. The entire confidence game now rests on only one last remaining support pillar which is the stock market, and in particular the price of the Dow. Despite a major pullback from January 2000 and March of 2001, there still remains a significant bubble in the stock market that has yet to be deflated. Investors have been lulled into believing Mr. Greenspan will keep a floor underneath the market.

So far, the confidence game has worked. But now the Fed has another problem that it may not be able to contain. It represents the most serious threat to the confidence game. It is the rise in the price of gold. When the price of gold starts to rise, it threatens the public's confidence in financial assets. Gold's rise spells t-r-o-u-b-l-e for the financial markets. There have been several attempts at assaulting $300 over the last four years, but the price of gold could not hold at that level. It met up with its resistance level at $300. There were brief attempts back in March ' 98, September '99, January 2000, and three attempts in 2001. Each time gold hit $300, heavy selling by bullion banks, institutions or hedge funds knocked the price of the metal down. However, the battle for confidence has now decidedly turned in gold's favor.

There are several reasons that the latest rally may signal the turning point in what has been a multi-decade bear market for gold. There are four significant forces that have now aligned themselves in support of gold. These forces are 1] the storm front that is building in the economy and the financial markets around the globe, 2] the battle over hedging in the gold markets by producers and bullion banks, 3] the record level of low interest rates, and 4] the crisis in credibility in the financial system."

Waverider: Another excellent and detailed weekly update from Puplava. I brought your attention to it RobotGuy in light of your question (last week?) on the significance of the $300.00 resistance level. Great charts and graphs. Cheers!

Gandalf the White

(02/16/2002; 10:47:15 MDT - Msg ID: 70189)

The COMEX February '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST

UPDATE !!!
--
THE RULES (revisited) --
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of
(GC2G) on the date of Friday the 22th of February.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "stars" *****
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as *****$543.2*****
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, Feb. 21th.
6) A short "WHY" discussion paragraph should accompany your prognostication.
GOOD LUCK ALL !
----
Guesses awaiting revision --
****$320.25**** Tommy P (02/14/02; 14:47:32MT msg#: 70018
-- Sir Tommy, I need the price in "tenths" -- Thanks <;-)

AND
Rumors of Guesses which require Confirmation and discussion ! <;-)

****$ 8,752.0 **** The Invisible Hand (02/13/02; 20:31:45MT msg#: 69957
As this was posted before the contest started, do you wish to modify the rather large value ? (MAYBE UP ?) <;-)

****326$**** Belgian (2/15/02; 12:30:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 70131
SIR "B" -- Was this an entry or just an EMPHASIS discussion item ? <;-)

===
PROGRESS REPORT !!
GUESSES in order of DECENDING Value

****$1,500.0**** LimitUp (02/14/02; 23:41:07MT msg#: 70090)

****$929.0**** golden rule (02/14/02; 18:10:01MT msg#: 70049

****$437.5**** Econoclast (02/14/02; 19:05:57MT msg#: 70063

****$379.0**** sstins (02/14/02; 14:34:25MT msg#: 70015

****$352.2**** goldquest (02/14/02; 13:52:51MT msg#: 70010

****$339.0**** rsjacksr (02/15/02; 20:15:47MT msg#: 70164)

****$329.1****.Clint H (2/15/02; 09:40:17MT msg#: 70111)
****$329.0**** ROSEBUD99 (2/15/02; 09:32:21MT msg#: 70110)

****$327.6**** RobotGuy (2/15/02; 08:09:30MT msg#: 70104

****$319.9**** Pizz (02/14/02; 22:52:31MT msg#: 70084

****$319.2**** MidEastGold (2/15/02; 07:05:36MT msg#: 70102

****$318.2**** A Canadian (02/14/02; 14:36:41MT msg#: 70016

****$317.9**** wiley (02/14/02; 20:41:56MT msg#: 70076

****$316.3**** slingshot (02/14/02; 14:22:58MT msg#: 70012

****$312.5**** darkhorse (02/14/02; 13:35:52MT msg#: 70009

****$312.1**** Voyager (2/15/02; 12:50:14MT msg#: 70138)

****$310.0**** Boxman (02/15/02; 18:52:21MT msg#: 70160

****$309.5**** Siochain (02/14/02; 20:07:10MT msg#: 70070

****$308.7**** law (02/14/02; 22:17:01MT msg#: 70080

****$308.1**** goldenpeace (02/14/02; 13:22:48MT msg#: 70008

****$307.9**** Jon (2/15/02; 13:02:47MT msg#: 70141

****$307.7**** Waverider (02/14/02; 15:13:23MT msg#: 70021

****$306.1**** EagleOne (02/14/02; 14:27:04MT msg#: 70014

****$305.4**** Achilles (2/15/02; 05:25:21MT msg#: 70099)

****$305.0**** Broken Tee (2/15/02; 14:32:54MT msg#: 70143)

****$304.2**** balzac (02/14/02; 17:34:42MT msg#: 70041

****$303.8**** uponroof (02/14/02; 14:24:30MT msg#: 70013

****$303.1**** Operative (2/16/02; 03:47:42MT msg#: 70184

****$302.5**** Canuck Gold (02/14/02; 15:09:18MT msg#: 70019

****$302.3**** Mythical (02/14/02; 21:42:32MT msg#: 70079

****$300.1**** VanRip (02/14/02; 18:25:51MT msg#: 70054

****$299.9**** Artie Farkle (2/15/02; 02:08:09MT msg#: 70097

****$299.0**** Carl H (02/14/02; 14:20:24MT msg#: 70011

****$298.7**** Truthcaster (02/14/02; 18:25:45MT msg#: 70053

****$298.4**** Topaz (02/14/02; 23:39:21MT msg#: 70089

****$297.9**** Knallgold (2/15/02; 07:47:09MT msg#: 70103

****$296.7**** The CoinGuy (02/14/02; 17:14:39MT msg#: 70037

****$292.8**** Trapper (02/14/02; 19:44:13MT msg#: 70067

****$292.0**** Grubstaker (02/14/02; 22:50:18MT msg#: 70083)
****$291.9**** silvercollector (02/15/02; 16:41:09MT msg#: 70149

****$290.0**** HOOSIER GOLDBUG (02/14/02; 15:50:12MT msg#: 70031
****$289.9**** miner49er (02/14/02; 15:30:03MT msg#: 70026

****$274.9**** Frosty (02/14/02; 18:55:58MT msg#: 70060
=====
OK ALL -- The EARLY "Guessers" have outlined the range !! Besure to enter your prognostication before someone takes your lucky guess. What is it that is said about holding your breath until one turns "BLUE" ? Turn GOLDEN soon.
Chok Dee !
<;-)

Solomon Weaver

(02/16/2002; 10:53:18 MDT - Msg ID: 70190)

Guessing contest ****$304.4****

Waverider

(02/16/2002; 11:08:25 MDT - Msg ID: 70191)

Show of Leadership on Shaky Japan Banks

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/02/16/business/worldbusiness/16YEN.html?ex=1014526800&en=6705944e8e8e3a6e&ei=5040Snippit:
"Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi asked financial regulators today to step up inspections of the country's shaky banks, the latest effort in his campaign to head off a financial crisis.

With worries about the stability of lenders growing by the day, Mr. Koizumi wants the Financial Services Agency to evaluate the banks' loan books and revalue them more strictly. By doing so, the prime minister hopes to calm the public and investors, who are unsure which banks stand the best chance of surviving.

Mr. Koizumi's six-point plan, however, is largely a rehash of steps already being taken. More important, it leaves open the question of using public funds to prop up banks that the inspections may find to be undercapitalized. Under current law, the government must declare a crisis before using taxpayer funds, a step it is unlikely to take unless a bank collapse starts a chain reaction of failures.

Simply telling the Financial Services Agency to be tough with their loan inspections reinstates what they are already doing," said Brian Waterhouse, an analyst at HSBC Securities. "It's not going to be all blue skies and sunshine. All this does is postpone the problem until September," when the next fiscal half-year ends.

Waverider: Hmmm...more time for those frugal and prudent Japanese housewives (whom we all love and respect) to spread the word...Go Girls!

Belgian

(02/16/2002; 11:42:01 MDT - Msg ID: 70192)

@ Gandalf

Sorry Sir, but it wasn't an entry ! Thanks.
Regards, Belgian. Bravo for your excellent administration skills.

Jon

(02/16/2002; 11:42:05 MDT - Msg ID: 70193)

Disaster Investing - or more properly,Preparation

Messages from certain posters to this site, for whom I have respect, have of late posted on need for preparation for some sort of calamity. I have missed seeing just what is possible and requires preparation. I ask just what possible event are they preparing for. Chet Currier of Bloomberg News, in review of "Dark Ages"
investing, mentions flare-ups in 50's over atomic warfare, the 70's attributable to inflation, enery crisis, and Watergate, more recently Y2k and now "paranoia portfolios".
Are we looking at possible collapse of civilization? If so, Chet indicates this is "probably one risk for which meaningful insurance cannot be obtained".
I would sincerely appreciate comments. Thanks

Trapper

(02/16/2002; 11:45:00 MDT - Msg ID: 70194)

Belgian

Thank you for the reply but I am still at a loss as to your statement about the euro playing it'e gold card. Remember the euro is just another fiat. The gold the ecb holds is only for show, and to try to make the people belive that the euro is backed by the gold. The euro is not backed by gold any more that the US dollar is. Backing by gold means you have the ability to convert paper for gold ON DEMAND and at a set par. The Europeans can no more do this than an American can. If any of us want gold we must buy it in the open market. If you are alluding to the euro being convertable to gold as the "gold card" I seriously doubt it. Greshams law would take effect, and rapidly. The 15 tons (or any amount) would be gone in a heart beat.
I am still not convinced that country infighting will not sink the euro anyway. Sovereignity is an important thing, once you give it up you become a slave to the one you gave it to. I belive that in the end Germany will be the straw.
Live small.
RJ

goldroadlx7

(02/16/2002; 12:39:41 MDT - Msg ID: 70195)

gold contest

*****301.9***** i think the gold price will hold close to the 300 level until they auction off the BOE tonnage. if they would cancel the auction? a very remote chance(300to1)!!! grin! we could see 320.00 within hours. just my opinion,i could be wrong. but a blind pig finds an acorn every now and then.wishing all of you all the best!! goldroadlx7 good day!

Aggie

(02/16/2002; 12:41:19 MDT - Msg ID: 70196)

Jon

http://nibiru1.tripod.com/planetX.htmCould be they are thinking about Planet X. If this is true, monetary preparation will not be that important

escapethematrix

(02/16/2002; 12:51:59 MDT - Msg ID: 70197)

Bush Says Marketplace Should Determine Values of Dollar, Yen

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topsum&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APG6QGBWiQnVzaCBT
Snippets:

Washington, Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush said investors, not governments, should determine the value of currencies amid entreaties by automakers and manufacturers to press Japan to strengthen the yen.

The marketplace ought to make the decisions about currency valuations,'' Bush, who left today for a tour of Japan, China and South Korea, told reporters last night when asked if he shared concerns about the yen.

Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill said this week that the dollar's value reflects gains in U.S. productivity

Well, there you have it from the horse's as�..er� mouths�..I would imagine that both these fine, non-prevaricating icons of integrity will rush to support Rep. Ron Pauls anti-ESF legislation�....Wouldn't they(smile).

Hey TG, it's been 2 months to the day now�.How about a little hike for old times sake?? Hopefully you have not been��.Veneroso'd��..So to speak.

A good weekend to all.

Mr Gresham

(02/16/2002; 12:57:37 MDT - Msg ID: 70198)

FT on Japan Deflation

http://markets.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3I5T22MXCLots of good perspective from inside Japan; also suggests why they're not selling US Tbonds yet; BOJ is being pressured to BUY more foreign bonds -- to lower the yen. They're resisting, it says, but the mercantilist predominance combined with Keynesian money-pumping by Japan's treasury, means they will probably hold the US bonds until dire cash flow necessity demands their sale. Besides, USD is a "good holding", isn't it? Until it isn't.

Since they've done everything wrong so far (wrong for the public, right for a powerful few), why spoil it by selling Tbonds near the top? (They're trapped in them anyway, aren't they, being the principal holders, and closely watched at that.)

That $100 bills on Afghanistan set my morning off on a frolicsome course; thought I had tuned in to the Joke Channel... (We are truly living in IDIOTIC times, so nothing should surprise us!)

Canuck

(02/16/2002; 13:01:01 MDT - Msg ID: 70199)

Skilling lied at Enron hearing????

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A9330-2002Feb14.html"She said that Skilling was absolutely required to sign forms showing he had reviewed partnership transactions and that the approval process was "cast in stone." He did not do that and last week he testified before the same panel that he did not believe his signature was required."

Canuck

(02/16/2002; 13:11:44 MDT - Msg ID: 70200)

Criminal inquiry next

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1820000/1820284.stm...more on Watkins.

Tommy P

(02/16/2002; 13:33:42 MDT - Msg ID: 70201)

****320.2****

TNKS

Max Rabbitz

(02/16/2002; 13:34:14 MDT - Msg ID: 70202)

Jon, Are we looking at possible collapse of civilization?

That's always a possibility. These events do occur, although not in recent memory. But is the extreme the only possibility? I live near 2 nuclear power plants and a major naval base. These are targets. I have potassium iodide pills and what is needed for staying inside for at least a month. No bomb shelter in the backyard. Just prudent precautions.

I am also concerned over a whole range of disruptions and/or disasters that could strike from financial to terrorist to natural. Even relatively small natural disasters lead to looting and rioting. Argentina is an excellent view of what is likely should problems come to our beloved U.S. dollar, such as a loss of sole reserve status in a new world financial system. This is where gold and silver come in. The Argentines are even pawning their wedding rings. Americans will be rioting and trying to lynch the politicians. Politicians who were only trying to provide the people with what they wanted....everything.

Mr. Bill

(02/16/2002; 13:36:20 MDT - Msg ID: 70203)

test

Max Rabbitz

(02/16/2002; 13:51:07 MDT - Msg ID: 70204)

Jon, Something else

It is a good feeling not to be totally dependent upon others for your food, water, shelter, or money....your very life. It is not healthy to be totally dependent on others.

Hektor

(02/16/2002; 14:31:01 MDT - Msg ID: 70205)

Gold Price *****309.7*****

I'm a pessimist: I don't think it will close above $310 this week.

Guided

(02/16/2002; 14:33:23 MDT - Msg ID: 70206)

What it is ain't exactly clear....... *****$333.3*****

Don't be buffaloed by these price fixers. They don't have the power they think they have. Gold and sliver have lost their relevance to mankind like water on a three day trail. As someone around here said ..... believe it! And anyway, I like that number. It's a great place to start in multiples.

Black Blade

(02/16/2002; 14:56:18 MDT - Msg ID: 70207)

Jon - Paranoia? Just Common Sense and Prudent is All.

Jon

I see where many people would be uncomfortable preparing for a possible economic downturn. This is certainly something that many people do not want to think about, or as some would say "out of sight - out of mind". Others may even see it as an opportunistic investment while many are suffering during economic bad times. In a free market there are always winners and losers, and there is certainly nothing wrong with that either.

We just need to determine whether preparation for economic bad times is as important as preparation for economic good times. We have insurance for our medical needs, for our lives, for our autos, for our homes, etc. Why not have insurance for our portfolios and basic survival needs. Nothing wrong with that either. Those who take prudent precautions for the needs of themselves and their families are commonly looked upon as fools in our society. It is the old Aesop fable "The Ant and the Grasshopper".

There have been many times that I have seen friends and family suffer during times where the bread-winner is injured or falls ill and is not prepared to take care of his family and must rely on the generosity of others. I have also seen a few economic Recessions (especially in the Natural Resource Industry). I have seen a lot of families under the strain of economic hardship as the bread-winner is laid off and unable to provide for their basic needs.

I tend to do quite well myself even though I am currently sitting atop the growing "Bone Pile". I could kick back and not worry for maybe 4 or 5 years without even worrying about employment or even tapping into my "investments". I have a nice supply of food stores and basic goods that could last perhaps six months to a year. I hunt and fish every chance I get and have a constant source of protein as the land will also provide. I can even brew my own adult beverages if I have too. So I am not even concerned about my survival needs as I have taken personal responsibility for unforeseen events.

I have also prepared by taking a defensive posture in my investments rather than jump into every craze or speculative mania that passes by. Sure I have invested in some Techs and Telecoms in the past and did quite well, I am mostly into defensive issues such as energy, utilities, limited partnerships, Non-Hedged profitable Gold shares, and of course physical Gold, Silver, and Platinum (bullion and numismatic coin). I just view this as being a prudent investor - especially in these uncertain times. A good question to ask yourself is how well you would fare in economic bad times should we revisit the "Great Depression". If the answer is "not good" - then it would be to your advantage to get prepared.

We can learn vicariously from others and our past. We have had economic Depressions/Recessions in the past here in the western nations. I seriously do not believe that we have entered some "Golden Age" where we will never see economic calamity ever again. That of course defies all logic and reason. We only need to look at recent events in the world around us. We have seen the more recent currency crises of the Mexican peso devaluation, the Asian Contagion, the Russian Bond Defaults and bank runs, Argentina's defaults and currency crisis, Japan's real estate bust, plunging equities markets, Yen devaluation and insolvent banking system, and now the beginning of the latest US Depression/Recession that threatens to get much worse as consumer confidence falls, corporate earnings fall, and one corporate accounting scandal after another becomes grist for the mill.

I don't see the collapse of civilization or some "Mad Max" world. I do see that economic downturns do occur and will always occur. It is only in the best interest of all to be prepared rather than burying ones head in the sand hoping that it will "just go away". Unfortunately we do not live in some magical Garden of Eden. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Canuck

(02/16/2002; 16:35:06 MDT - Msg ID: 70208)

Another option for G.W.

The other night I believe it was sector mentioning he hoped that G.W. was not going to tell the Japanese PM to outlaw gold.

Here's the other side of the coin.

"Is the Pres G W in the far east to broker some kind of deal, i.e. on his hands and knees begging the Japanese not to stop buying our debts and not selling our bonds???"

So there has been HUGE speculation on Japan's next move. A couple articles today debate the inflate/deflate option(s).

I saw an article a couple days ago explaining BIG MONEY movement suggesting 'yen coming home'.

On a different note I saw a 'Headline' that Canada and the U.S. were ready to battle it out over grain soon. Potatoes, softwood lumber, water, energy and garbage (yes, garbage) have been argued over in the last year, why not grain?

Thoughts?

Canuck

(02/16/2002; 17:21:16 MDT - Msg ID: 70209)

Accounting tricks

Rumour has it that 'Forbes' has compiled a list of companies that it is watching for accounting irregularities.

Anyone know of this list?

sector

(02/16/2002; 18:27:03 MDT - Msg ID: 70210)

Rising Sun...Hat-In-Hand Dubya

@canuckYes-in-deedy! The prez is probably begging Japan not to sell US Treasuries by offering them "Off balance sheet" extra interest...like, say...10%. Or perhaps dates with the US snowboard women...tou know...he ones with the rock-hard thighs.

It still won't stop the yen from falling and the yen pog from rising. The deteriorating economy and the teetering insurance companies and banks in Japan will spur the elderly Japanese who hold a vast cash reservoir...in the hundreds of billions of dollars, towards gold as they lose even more confidence in a now unmasked, fake reformer [Koizumi].

Loved that quote from SECTREAS O'Neill and Dubya...words to the effect...markets set currency prices. Who'd have thought? Wasn't it the tooth fairy?

The World knows that the South African Rand could have been saved by using just a tiny chip from the Gibraltar sized US currency float. So...are they racists or just gold market cheats? Pick only one please.

But guess what... For the US...there may be no more exits from the canyons of currency death. At some point in the slide Japan will sell its assets...including US Treasuries.

In the light of Enron, it will take some tall talking to get Moody's and S&P to roll over on the coming Japanese debt downgrade. They [the rating agencies] yet may take the fall, but the pundits will see and report.

The big problem will come when wise people move to get their metal...it will be devoured in a flash. This from a range of currency experts...there just won't be time to obtain cheap gold. Packing one's parachute must be done before one takes off.

miner49er

(02/16/2002; 18:49:51 MDT - Msg ID: 70211)

Financial Arbitrage Socialism � the next New Deal

In a speech to the Euro 50 Group Roundtable on November 30 (http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2001/200111302/), Fed Chairman, Alan Greenspan, discussed the Euro as an international currency. One of the requirements that an international currency must have is efficient utility as a vehicle in cross-border transactions. In this, a combination of robust payment and communications systems, depth and liquidity, make the complexities, volume and frequency of the immense international money flows of global commerce possible.

In considering the usefulness of a currency through both time and space, this would be considered as "through space."

Yet, what is the most important attribute of a currency that makes it attractive as an international settlement currency? "First and foremost," according to Mr. Greenspan, "an international currency must be perceived as sound. To be acceptable, market participants must be willing to hold it as a store of value."

This would be considered as "through time."

There is an awful lot in this speech that makes interesting commentary regarding the fierce and quiet struggle between the U.S. dollar and the euro for premier status in this role, but I want to focus elsewhere today. It should come as no great revelation that in order for a currency to function satisfactorily it should be able to maintain a predictable value in terms of goods and services throughout the timeframe considered by the participants in the transaction. Lent currency, when paid back in depreciated units, makes the creditor whole nominally, but his real return suffers. Likewise, appreciating units are harder for the debtor to come by, and so the lender risks non-performance and default. Predictability, hence stability, allows both borrower and lender some room for confidence in forecasting, and helps ensure follow-through at par.

Herein lies the heart of the above-mentioned struggle, and the great contrast between these two fiat currencies: each claims its worthiness as a store of value; yet each has very different reasons for alleging that claim.

The dollar, once defined in terms of gold and silver, has seen several critical leap-points in its evolution. First a break from silver, then its gold-backing replaced domestically, then devaluation of the dollar in terms of gold, and finally default on its gold-backing internationally. Untethered, it began a campaign to demonstrate its undervaluation in terms of the potential capacity of the U.S. economy to produce. This process was aided by a combination of cheap oil, and technology only then beginning to uncover and develop the possibilities of petroleum by-products.

Mr. McGuire: I just want to say one word to you... just one word.
Benjamin Braddock: Yes, sir.
Mr. McGuire: Are you listening?
Benjamin Braddock: Yes, sir I am.
Mr. McGuire: "Plastics." (from, of course, The Graduate - 1967)

Several variations on this productivity theme have been performed since, with choruses of the hedonic multiplier ushering out the end of the century. Overlapping this denouement was another phenomenon that gave further life to the dollar -- the stupendous increase in the purchase of financial arbitrage products. This wave, ascending in phase with the unprecedented increase in credit financing, found its footing in a different kind of use for the dollar. The nature of these instruments, being very short term, lessens the importance of the currency vehicle as a store of value. Rather its liquidity, and the ability to transact enormous amounts of the currency instantaneously, permit the razor-thin spreads traded to be profitable, and allows participants to capitalize on the fleeting, almost imperceptible mis-pricings they arbitrage. The colossal volume of these instruments has influenced greatly the economic engine for nearly a decade now. But, alas, this too is coming to an end.

The steadfast repudiation of gold as an instrument of globally recognized wealth by the U.S. dollar faction has come to the point of self-destruction. If one denies the law of gravity, and steps out of an airplane, there is a period in which there is no penalty suffered for breaking this inalterable law. Certainly these few moments are quite thrilling. Reckoning will arrive however. Even should there be a rescue, it must come by some force that is itself not breaching the law, but advantageously utilizing it unto deliverance.

The euro on the other hand, takes a decidedly different tack. While giving assent to the necessity of improving economic productivity and employment within its currency bloc, it is determined not to allow itself to become bogged down in this political quagmire. The ECB has one chartered objective in maintaining the integrity of its currency -- inflation targeting. As a backing it has quietly, yet forcefully, used its gold reserves to advantage by marking them regularly to the market price of gold. Thus a rising gold price is a boon to their asset mix (in contrast to the U.S., which maintains its reserves at an outrageously undervalued constant). As for the "sale" of gold by the member banks -- I am not an insider, but I am also not naive -- these guys assuredly still have most of their gold. The owners of these banks are not 30-year-old kids. They are old money. Old money knows the value of gold. They play hardball. And they are not stupid.

The euro, in its marketing efforts, downplays the economies that use it, and advertises its emphasis on the integrity of the store through convertibility to the entire commodity panoply (gold included) in the free market. (In other words, don't look at what others might foolishly do with a good tool - instead this is what the euro can do for you.) The concept of non-interference actually enhances the ability of potential euro buyers to forecast their businesses. A currency that either fixes or manages its exchange rate to any particular commodity or other currency always stands to blow-up unexpectedly. So its players are buying a period of very determined stability, but always at the risk of a cataclysmic failure of the system. A currency that can be freely exchanged in a free market for any commodity or currency offloads the risk to the buyers of the instruments. But it allows the risks to be managed by traditional forecasting methods -- not burdened with the surreal illogic of politicization.

So we have a black-and-white, day-and-night contrast between these two competing units. The dollar has committed itself to its ability to hold its own without a use for gold, and with it the implication that it can ever pull out of its hat something that will give it use as a value store. The euro, structured to emphasize gold, stands poised to benefit from a revaluation in its price. And by avoiding political entanglements, gains flexibility to manage the currency more soundly.

A new breed of rabbit... (designer-cloned especially for hat-pulling...)

In another speech by the Fed Chairman (thx Randy), this one before the Greenlining Institute on January 10th (http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/20020110/default.htm), there is a noteworthy discussion on the need to emphasize "savings." Considering the target audience, attention is given primarily to economic development and methods to get the financially "underserved" portion of the population, plugged in.

Amid the discussion is mention of a concept called "individual development accounts." These are basically tax-favored savings instruments for those who qualify, with matching-fund sweeteners, for the purpose of "saving" for things that improve a community's development: home-buying, business-starting, and education, for example.

What we have here is "targeted savings." Not a new idea by any stretch, but perhaps there is some new twist to extrapolate. Let's build on this a bit. First let's put the notion of savings into proper perspective. Savings as discussed here, is not savings. It is a loan to the bank. It is an investment (and investments are not savings, they are risk-taking ventures). You elect to become creditor. In return you expect them to yield back to you a portion of the profits they plan to make with the money you lent them -- and enough to make it worth your while to forego alternate marginal opportunity. You may have used your "savings" to loan to them, but it is a loan nonetheless. Deposit is a terribly misleading term.

Second, this concept, as mentioned, is really no different than other incentive-providing instruments. The premium you pay for the additional benefits (tax favored treatment, matching funds, etc.) are that you have time and usage constraints. Upon maturity of the obligations, you must still obtain goods and services -- even the targeted ones -- at current prices. Your bet is that the marginal benefits of preparing for these expenses, via these vehicles, will be greater in relation to alternative possibilities. Your risk is that the vehicle you are using -- a dollar denominated instrument -- will hold its value according to the prediction you have made in tying up your funds in this instrument at the expected rate of return.

In the case of the U.S. dollar, the onus for sustaining this value is a function of the sweat and grunts of yourself and your fellow taxpayers. (But I'm already dancin' as fast as I can...! Work smarter, not harder! Just hold hands and buy an SUV -- the gas guzzlin' kind have a greater effect on the hedonic multiplier...). You get the picture.

If I'm reading between the lines correctly, I perceive the U.S. Central Bank is quite well aware that they have wrung all the blood and plasma out of this stone, and are beginning a shift to a "new alchemy." (Not the old bricks-and-mortar alchemy, stupid... this is a new-alchemy...)

Traditionally, we have tried to instill the currency unit itself with value by way of commodities, or people's productivity, or even hyper-efficient transaction utility (the use value required by big money arbitrageurs, et al.). We then hope that the currency unit can hold its value by these mechanisms in terms of future procurement of goods and services.

What if we could promise the goods or services, deliverable in the future, at today's prices, instead of guaranteeing the accounting instrument? There are a couple of ways to look at this. The first is more conventional, sort of like a forward contract / lay-away hybrid. The second is more intriguing. First, let's examine the more conventional mechanism.

If we take the forward concept away from the framework of corn and pork-bellies, and the lay-away concept away from Walmart and Target, and apply the thinking to the purchase of old-age care, medical expenses, college tuition, and the like, we do have a new variation on a theme. Indeed, the accounting instrument will assume, of its own, stability vis-�-vis the things it is contracted to buy. (Ah, the wonders of fiat...)

Let's look at an example. A contract to purchase a year of tuition in 2020 at MyState University begins with a standard loan account. I lock in my 2020 tuition at 2002 prices, say $15,000. Between now and 2020, I make payments on a scheduled basis, and in 2020 I use the balance accumulated in this account to purchase my tuition. Several characteristics should be observed.

I will not receive interest on this account, as the obligation is not "savings" as such, but pre-payment installments for an actual good or service purchased today, with delivery deferred to the future. Money paid into this account is not mine. I am not able to borrow against it, or withdraw it. What I own is a contract. The contract is negotiable, and transferable. I can sell it on the open market.

While there are others also interested in 2020 enrollment at MyState U., the contract on its own is generally illiquid. To protect both parties from undue risk, funds and trusts would emerge to buy these contracts and transform them into marketable securities. (No doubt AAA and high yielding, too...) Immediately you incur all the dynamics of the current environment, with all its temporary advantages, and reliance on an asset structure built upon promises. Once balled up, these new instruments would function much like a financial currency in the contract marketplace, and among arbitrageurs. And as currency is want to do, its notional backing would face constant debasement. Practically speaking, the quality of the tuition eventually received would not be what we expected.

Why would people enter into such arrangements? Because, unhappily, people are possessed of the good and bad quality of child-like trust in their governing institutions. They want to believe the best. In the face of everything beginning to crumble around them, they would be ready to receive this financial lifeline, as a means of procuring anticipated future needs at current prices. They have been effectively discouraged from saving gold. They sense a need to hoard in the face of escalating prices, so why not provide them something to hoard, that is still yet defined in terms of a financial asset? Governments would buy the idea as it serves to remove much of the financial burden from a whole host of social programs. Yet it does so without causing the bureaucracy to relinquish their coveted control of these same programs. Financing companies would welcome the idea, as it would provide both a new game to play, and a fresh fix of funds to play with.

The concept provides a notable shift form the traditional tax-and-redistribute socialism of the 20th century, and launches us into a brave new high-tech world of ay-to-play socialism. A socialism for the new millennium. As in all socialism, the end product is still less than what the recipient hoped to get at the outset, but in this permutation, it is oh so much more efficient! We have now taken the next step forward from Doug Noland's "Financial Arbitrage Capitalism." We have moved on to "Financial Arbitrage Socialism."

S. Patrick: You who are bent, and bald, and blind,
With a heavy heart and a wandering mind,
Have known three centuries, poets sing,
Of dalliance with a demon thing.

[...]

Niamh: Then go through the lands in the saddle and see what the mortals do,
And softly come to your Niamh over the tops of the tide;
But weep for your Niamh, O Oisin, weep; for if only your shoe
Brush lightly as haymouse earth's pebbles, you will come no more to my side.

[...]

Oisin: The rest you have heard of, O croziered man; how, when divided the girth,
I fell on the path, and the horse went away like a summer fly;
And my years three hundred fell on me, and I rose, and walked on the earth,
A creeping old man, full of sleep, with the spittle on his beard never dry.

From "The Wanderings of Oisin," W.B. Yeats

I mentioned there was another less conventional way to approach the financing of this concept. Let's look at it now. In the contract concept just mentioned, the contract still ultimately depends upon the fate of its denominating instrument (the dollar). The funds used to purchase the contract disappear immediately into the world of whithersoever-they-will, no longer coupled to the future deliverable. In contrast, this second approach attempts to maintain this coupling. In doing so, the possibility exists to create a new "special-purpose" currency vehicle altogether. Instead of the buyer effectively buying forward a future deliverable, he instead sets up an account somewhat similar to an IRA conceptually. The goal is again targeted savings. Only this time the deposited funds belong to the depositor, and remain associated to the deliverable.

Why targeted savings? Two reasons. First, this helps ensure these funds stay under the control of the financing institutions - as they remain financial assets, and do not find their way into real goods and services purchased currently. This would cause the fated exposure of the tenuousness of the financial assets relative to escalating consumer prices. Second, (really the same thing, just another way of expressing it) it transfers the feared unknowns of where these currency units may ultimately alight as value stores in the public's mind (commodity and goods hoarding), and polarizes them to a defined future deliverable (which is still presently negotiated as a financial asset).

The nature of the deliverables must be such that they can readily be redefined. They must also be in high and inelastic demand. Services such as health care, old-age care, and education suit these purposes quite well.

In this method, since the originating funds still belong to the depositor, these funds effectively become part of the financial institutions reserves. Since these funds are earmarked for the purchase of an appreciating asset, at a fixed price, they acquire extra value, and can be lent at a premium. Such accounts can also find liquidity by being rolled up together with similar instruments, and diced-and-spliced according to the wants of the marketplace. The service ultimately provided, as in the method above, will be inferior to what the buyer hoped for, but he will most likely receive it nominally anyway.

What is different here is that the funds involved take on a life of their own so long as they are traveling in this new savings vehicle. As long as the funds are tied to an inelastic and high demand future deliverable, they, like Oisin above, in a land of eternal youth, retain their youthful vigor.

Do we not now have a new "virtual asset" backed currency that can travel side-by-side with our other fiat currencies, including the old and mortal dollar? Could this new currency not be used as tender in our daily transactions (bread, butter, and beer), and thus add new life to the entire U.S. dollar regime? By providing a confidence of a value store to a daily use currency issued by the U.S. dollar faction, is not the incentive to move to gold taken away yet again from domestic participants? And, hopefully, could this not entice global speculators to stay for one more drink and one more dance, too?

As far as complicating restrictions on the premature withdrawal or termination of these accounts, perhaps no more would be required than that they would be nominally exchanged for old-fashioned mortal dollars. And like the tragic Oisin, once so much as haymouse brushing earth's pebbles, these special-vehicle dollars, suspended in youth, would return to their proper age and strength, to purchase whatever they may command in that day.

Will people actually go for this? For all the reasons listed earlier, yes of course. Will they accept an inferior future product - the inevitable outcome of such schemes? They already do with traditional socialism - for which they still clamor - even with its track record of inefficiency. Would people not be likely to accept a more efficient, cost-effective way to get the same thing? Especially, if they feel they have more "control" of the outcome... They "save" today in tax-deferred retirement accounts for all its worth because they believe unquestioningly in the integrity of the unit that accounts their "savings." Even as they watch their so-called savings evaporate before their eyes. Very few have any knowledge at all about what they are doing. Why would I expect people to behave any differently here? Cynical perhaps, but pragmatic...

So, welcome to the "New Alchemy." But if you have a choice, I suggest you reject alchemy altogether and just buy gold - the real thing - while it's still selling at give-away prices.

A few thoughts... maybe interesting, maybe way off base... but thoughts nonetheless...

Good weekend all,
miner

Black Blade

(02/16/2002; 19:42:46 MDT - Msg ID: 70212)

Outlook: Ominous signs reflected in the rush to buy gold

http://www.business.scotsman.com/news/headlines_specific.cfm?id=184172002
Snippit:

FOR the past 30 years, few assets have seemed of less relevance to investors than gold. Yet when the price moves, as it has moved in the past 12 days, investors cannot afford not to pay attention. There are few more accurate barometers of approaching financial instability than the price of bullion.

In scrambling up by more than $40 to cross the $300 level in the past week - closing on Friday just a whisker below $300 - gold is signaling a widespread apprehension that the world economy may be far from out of the woods yet. When analysts such as Ian Williams of Durlacher forecast that gold will hit $600 an ounce within two years "on the basis of supply and demand imbalance", we could be headed for turbulent times indeed.

Skeptics of gold as a financial health barometer say its supporters are a sad and confused group who cannot make up their minds as to what exactly it is that gold is forecasting: inflation or depression. If they cannot get their story right on such a fundamental matter, say the critics, why give them anything when they rattle the can? No reasonable person would choose to join this Apocalypse Club without being reasonably clear what they are supposed to be apocalyptic about.

While the bad debt crisis of Japan's banks has been looming for years, many are now afraid that a convergence of events has brought the day of reckoning near. In the banking system a big change is due on April 1. It is the anticipation of this change that has sparked a stampede of Japanese investors into gold. From April, the government will start to roll back the blanket deposit introduced in 1998. The first stage will limit insurance cover to Y10 million (�53,700) per depositor at each bank in which the person or institution holds an account.

It speaks volumes about the public's confidence in the banking system that many depositors have already moved their money, spreading it around in Y10 million deposits that will qualify for insurance for another year. But even this has not removed public anxiety about the likelihood of runs on the banks. That is why the Japanese have been buying gold as a safe haven asset.

Black Blade

(02/16/2002; 19:44:53 MDT - Msg ID: 70213)

Comment - Ominous Signs Reflected in Rush to Buy Gold

Black Blade: Interest in Gold is picking up steam. You just got to wonder what these guys are thinking. The price of Gold will go higher whether there are inflationary or deflationary pressures. Gold does not forecast but rather reacts to risk in the economic system. In the 1970's the POG rose in response to inflation. In the Great Depression the POG rose in response to the economic crisis and as confidence in the Global Economy faltered (even though artificially held in check by the US Government). During the Great Depression Gold ownership was illegal, however, some investors held shares of Homestake mining as a proxy for Gold and the stock soared in price. If Gold were legal at the time I would bet that the US public would rather have a $20 Gold piece than a $20 note. Gold did not forecast anything; it just reacted to systemic risk as it became more obvious. It's not all that complicated.

Still I anticipate even more heavy buying in Japan as anxiety grows over the insolvent banking system. If the WGC actually wanted the POG to rise they would hammer this point home in Japan's media. Buying should pick up in Europe as well since it appears that the Euro can't keep pace with either Gold or the US Dollar and the economy slips into Depression along with the US. "Interesting Times"

USAGOLD

(02/16/2002; 20:12:07 MDT - Msg ID: 70214)

Miner 49er. . . .

You are absolutely correct. Socialism is now being perpetrated through the market mechanism by "traders" no longer regulated -- much like the "monopolists" of a by-gone age operated unencumbered until Teddy Roosevelt came along and saw it for what it was [is]. Enron is not a child of market capitalism, but market socialism -- that's why they had everybody in the government and press bought. It had nothing to do with the market, but with what aspect of the political sector could be controlled and kept from putting the kabosh on their operations. And we see with Enron, JPMorgan, etc. where such incestuous relationships end. [And Enron, as Mr. Volcker says, is only the beginning.] As a society, we must not fear to regulate this type of socialism, no more than we should keep people from driving on the wrong side of the road. The Contstitution let us not forget is a regulatory device. The legislation Rep Ron Paul just introduced is regulatory legislation. There are legitimate functions and uses of government and one of them is to provide a level playing field for the scope of participants -- and that perhaps is what the American constitution is supposed to be all about. Brilliant observation, Miner. The sort of thing that justifies and perpetuates the existence of this Table. Anyone who sees Enron and doesn't see it as emblematic of a failed social system is missing the point, and missing the real reason why gold ownership make so much sense in the modern era.

Cavan Man

(02/16/2002; 20:12:47 MDT - Msg ID: 70215)

miner49er

Sir: A++. Before I got to the end of the poetry you quoted I knew it was Yeats--a definite favorite. He meets me at the core of my being.

"Your eyes that once were never weary of mine
Are bowed in sorrow under their trembling lids,
Because our love is waning"

And then she:
"Although our love is waning, let us stand
By the lone border of the lake once more,
Together in that hour of gentleness
When the poor tired child, Passion, falls asleep:
How far away the stars seem, and how far
Is our first kiss, and ah, how old my heart!"
Pensive they paced along the faded leaves,
While slowly he whose hand held hers replied:
"Passion has often worn our wandering hearts."

The woods were round them, and the yellow leaves
Fell like faint meteors in the gloom, and once
A rabbit old and lame limped down the path;
Autumn was over him: and now they stood
On the lone border of the lake once more:
Turning, he saw that she had thrust dead leaves
Gathered in silence, dewy as her eyes,
In bosum and hair.

"Ah do not mourn," he said,
"That we are tired, for other loves await us:
Hate on and love through unrepining hours;
Before us lies eternity; our souls
Are love, and a continual farewell."

EPHEMERA
W.B. Yeats

Cavan Man

(02/16/2002; 20:15:29 MDT - Msg ID: 70216)

on "market socialism"

and its bastard stepchild: political economy

neer-do-well

(02/16/2002; 21:14:28 MDT - Msg ID: 70217)

LED flashlights, yes indeedy

*****315***** thank you

Canuck

(02/16/2002; 21:21:39 MDT - Msg ID: 70218)

Good job boys

Miner49er, MK:

Excellent point(s).

Blake Blade

The WGC is embarrassing to me, a gold investor. The producers (the real ones) must be embarrassed as well. Their contribution lately to the gold world was a poorly concocted , miserably executed 'jewellery selling contest'.
Speaking of proxies, representations if you will, what does the WGC represent to the gold world? What's that other gold (mis)representation outfit called, the one with the astute Ms. Cross?

You are absolutely right, its time someone took the bull by the horns and got this gold thing going.

Go Asia go, lets get this paper masquerade over with.

mikal

(02/16/2002; 21:28:42 MDT - Msg ID: 70219)

"American Eagle Gold Bullion Coins"

"Ever since its discovery 5,000 years ago, gold has been treasured for its unmatched luster, beauty and intrinsic value. Today, gold continues to enjoy widespread appeal as an investment and storehouse of value. Gold is an internationally recognized monetary and financial asset held in reserve by major governments. It is so rare that all the gold ever mined could fit into a cube measuring just 20 yards on each side. Most importantly, gold can play a significant role in diversifying an investment portfolio, since it can move independent of stocks and bonds. What's more, gold is a tangible asset-one whose beauty and artistry you can literally hold in your hands. When purchased in the form of legal tender bullion coins, gold can be affordable, as well as easy to buy and store..." - United States Mint Bureau of the Treasury Department. This government advertisement could be a good primer for a prospective investor looking for safety and diversity from crumbling markets and currencies. Especially when the Knights and the few other knowledgable and elite investors worldwide, corner the numismatic market. First come, first served! But they are joining the growing group who value the tangible and symbolic significance of the preeminent global currency and enduring store of value. No other substance combines its beauty, luster, workability, and virtual indestructability with rarity, liquidity, and historic and expanding versatility. Gold bars are held by central banks to assure their ability to make international payments. Not long after gold began its 5,000+ year relationship with mankind, it captured universal regard as the foundation of the worlds monetary system while still remaining safe, portable "cash". Golds "price" value may fluctuate, but its "real" value never changes during restless social, political, and economic events we know as "History".

Canuck

(02/16/2002; 21:33:02 MDT - Msg ID: 70220)

A solid hint to anyone sitting on the fence

We know Warren Buffett bought a huge stash of silver a few years back, some 120 million oz. The rumours go back and forth as to where it is now, still held, leased, sold, all of the above. Bill Gates increased his share in Pan America from 9.5% to over 11% last year. Soros is big into silver as well. So you have got to ask yourself "what is the big/smart money buying"

Well I can tell you what they are selling. I read today (I wish I have posted the link), WB dumped his share in Citigroup recently.

So the big boys are accumulating metal and dumping paper, the hints don't get clearer than that.

Canuck

(02/16/2002; 21:35:07 MDT - Msg ID: 70221)

Here's the Citigroup dump

Mr Gresham

(02/16/2002; 21:51:25 MDT - Msg ID: 70222)

Cavan Man

Thank you for the Yeats; made my evening to come home to it.

Now down to catch miner49er's latest...

Canuck

(02/16/2002; 21:59:58 MDT - Msg ID: 70223)

@ sector

Nice post buddy!

"Or perhaps dates with the US snowboard women...tou know...he ones with the rock-hard thighs."

Did ya see the Canadian babe that won the gold in speed skating, her thighs look dangerous!

techbull....

(02/16/2002; 22:30:45 MDT - Msg ID: 70224)

*****448.40*****

I think the market will limit up for two successive days before closing indefinately. With the severe state of the world economic system, its only a matter of time before this happens. It may as well be next week so I can win the prize, but if not it will give us a little more time to amass some gold.

Canuck

(02/16/2002; 22:41:19 MDT - Msg ID: 70225)

Jewellery falloff is bullsnot

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/barron021902.html"To say that gold demand will go down because of a $20 or so price rise....well....let's put this statement to the test. I spoke to a jeweller friend of mine this evening and asked her what an average woman's ring weighs. She said anywhere from 1.5 to 3 pennyweights - 4.5 is "real chunky". The most popular women's jewellery in USA is 14 carat (58.5% gold content). Let's be on the high side and use the 4.5 pennyweight figure. A pennyweight is 1.555 grams. Doing the math, the rings weighs 6.9975 grams, and contains 4.0935 grams of gold, equivalent to 0.1316 oz of gold. A 6% rise in the gold price, say from $283 to $300 represents a measly $2.24 increase in the value of the gold. Maybe I'm being a bit pedantic with all this, but it seems to me two bucks a ring is hardly going to discourage women from buying jewellery. In the sound-bite culture we are immersed in, everyone should have their BS meter turned on "high"."

Carl H

(02/16/2002; 22:57:30 MDT - Msg ID: 70226)

Japan/Bush/Gold

So W. is going to Japan. I was just pondering what he will convince the Japanese to do about the Gold "situation".

Here are possiblities that I came up with:

1. Nothing
2. Tax all gold transactions
3. Outlaw Gold
4. Weaken the Yen
5. Back off on the bank account insurance cap legislation
6. Dump their gold reserves on the market. As of 1/2001 they had 764 tons.

Anyone else have other thoughts?

In China, I suspect the talk will turn to Silver. (I hope that the Chinese ask for Air Force 1 in exchange for XX MOz of silver. At least it might not be bugged...)

Good night all.

Waverider

(02/17/2002; 00:03:10 MDT - Msg ID: 70227)

Lloyds to axe 3,000 jobs

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1821000/1821879.stmSnippit:
"High Street bank Lloyds TSB has unveiled lower profits, and announced plans to axe 3,000 jobs this year in an attempt to cut costs.

The bank said that pre-tax profits for 2001 fell by 8% on the year to �3.5bn ($4.9bn), citing an "overall fall in stock market values".

Waverider: Not good news for the 5th largest British Bank. Shares are down 5.7%

Gandalf the White

(02/17/2002; 00:24:58 MDT - Msg ID: 70228)

The COMEX February '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST

UPDATE !!!

THE RULES (revisited) --
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of
(GC2G) on the date of Friday the 22th of February.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "stars" *****
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as *****$543.2*****
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, Feb. 21th.
6) A short "WHY" discussion paragraph should accompany your prognostication.
GOOD LUCK ALL !
----
Rumors of Guesses which require Confirmation and discussion ! <;-)

****$ 8,752.0 **** The Invisible Hand (02/13/02; 20:31:45MT msg#: 69957
As this was posted before the contest started, do you wish to modify the rather large value ?
(MAYBE UP ?) <;-)

===
PROGRESS REPORT !!

GUESSES in order of DECENDING Value

****$1,500.0**** LimitUp (02/14/02; 23:41:07MT msg#: 70090)

****$929.0**** golden rule (02/14/02; 18:10:01MT msg#: 70049

****$448.4**** techbull.... (02/16/02; 22:30:45MT msg#: 70224

****$437.5**** Econoclast (02/14/02; 19:05:57MT msg#: 70063

****$379.0**** sstins (02/14/02; 14:34:25MT msg#: 70015

****$352.2**** goldquest (02/14/02; 13:52:51MT msg#: 70010

****$339.0**** rsjacksr (02/15/02; 20:15:47MT msg#: 70164)

****$333.3**** Guided (02/16/02; 14:33:23MT msg#: 70206

****$329.1****.Clint H (2/15/02; 09:40:17MT msg#: 70111)
****$329.0**** ROSEBUD99 (2/15/02; 09:32:21MT msg#: 70110)

****$327.6**** RobotGuy (2/15/02; 08:09:30MT msg#: 70104

****$320.2**** Tommy P (02/16/02; 13:33:42MT msg#: 70201

****$319.9**** Pizz (02/14/02; 22:52:31MT msg#: 70084

****$319.2**** MidEastGold (2/15/02; 07:05:36MT msg#: 70102

****$318.2**** A Canadian (02/14/02; 14:36:41MT msg#: 70016

****$317.9**** wiley (02/14/02; 20:41:56MT msg#: 70076

****$316.3**** slingshot (02/14/02; 14:22:58MT msg#: 70012

****$315.0**** neer-do-well (02/16/02; 21:14:28MT msg#: 70217

****$312.5**** darkhorse (02/14/02; 13:35:52MT msg#: 70009

****$312.1**** Voyager (2/15/02; 12:50:14MT msg#: 70138)

****$310.0**** Boxman (02/15/02; 18:52:21MT msg#: 70160

****$309.7**** Hektor (02/16/02; 14:31:01MT msg#: 70205

****$309.5**** Siochain (02/14/02; 20:07:10MT msg#: 70070

****$308.7**** law (02/14/02; 22:17:01MT msg#: 70080

****$308.1**** goldenpeace (02/14/02; 13:22:48MT msg#: 70008

****$307.9**** Jon (2/15/02; 13:02:47MT msg#: 70141

****$307.7**** Waverider (02/14/02; 15:13:23MT msg#: 70021

****$306.1**** EagleOne (02/14/02; 14:27:04MT msg#: 70014

****$305.4**** Achilles (2/15/02; 05:25:21MT msg#: 70099)

****$305.0**** Broken Tee (2/15/02; 14:32:54MT msg#: 70143)

****$304.4**** Solomon Weaver (02/16/02; 10:53:18MT msg#: 70190

****$304.2**** balzac (02/14/02; 17:34:42MT msg#: 70041

****$303.8**** uponroof (02/14/02; 14:24:30MT msg#: 70013

****$303.1**** Operative (2/16/02; 03:47:42MT msg#: 70184

****$302.5**** Canuck Gold (02/14/02; 15:09:18MT msg#: 70019

****$302.3**** Mythical (02/14/02; 21:42:32MT msg#: 70079

****$301.9**** goldroadlx7 (02/16/02; 12:39:41MT msg#: 70195

****$300.1**** VanRip (02/14/02; 18:25:51MT msg#: 70054

****$299.9**** Artie Farkle (2/15/02; 02:08:09MT msg#: 70097

****$299.0**** Carl H (02/14/02; 14:20:24MT msg#: 70011

****$298.7**** Truthcaster (02/14/02; 18:25:45MT msg#: 70053

****$298.4**** Topaz (02/14/02; 23:39:21MT msg#: 70089

****$297.9**** Knallgold (2/15/02; 07:47:09MT msg#: 70103

****$296.7**** The CoinGuy (02/14/02; 17:14:39MT msg#: 70037

****$292.8**** Trapper (02/14/02; 19:44:13MT msg#: 70067

****$292.0**** Grubstaker (02/14/02; 22:50:18MT msg#: 70083)
****$291.9**** silvercollector (02/15/02; 16:41:09MT msg#: 70149

****$290.0**** HOOSIER GOLDBUG (02/14/02; 15:50:12MT msg#: 70031
****$289.9**** miner49er (02/14/02; 15:30:03MT msg#: 70026

****$274.9**** Frosty (02/14/02; 18:55:58MT msg#: 70060
===
Starting out the new week and awaiting the news from SEAsia to get all the GUESSERS that are pacing the pack and awaiting their opportunity to put on their sprint with the proper number. -- Just remember what happened to Appolo Ono!!
<;-(

Waverider

(02/17/2002; 01:03:47 MDT - Msg ID: 70229)

Al Qaeda's Road Paved With Gold

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A22303-2002Feb16.htmlSnippit:
"Just as the United States and its allies swept toward Afghanistan's main cities last autumn, the ruling Taliban and Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network sent waves of couriers with bars of gold and bundles of dollars across the porous border into Pakistan.

In small shops and businesses along the border, the money and gold, taken from Afghanistan's banks and national coffers, were collected and moved by trusted Taliban and al Qaeda operatives to the port city of Karachi, Pakistan, according to sources familiar with the events.

Then, using couriers and the virtually untraceable hawala money transfer system, they transferred millions of dollars to this desert sheikdom [United Arab Emirates], where the assets were converted to gold bullion. The riches of the Taliban and al Qaeda were subsequently scattered around the world -- including some that went to the United States -- through a financial structure that has been little affected by the international efforts to seize suspected terrorist assets.

The interviews offered a tantalizing glimpse into the critical yet mysterious role played by gold in the finances of al Qaeda, both before and after the Sept. 11 attacks. Gold has allowed the Taliban and bin Laden to largely preserve their financial resources, despite the military attack that battered their forces in Afghanistan, investigators and intelligence sources said.

U.S. and European investigators said it is al Qaeda's ability to tap into commodities such as gold, and to move its resources through both the hawala system and banking structures, that makes it so hard to disrupt. Wechsler, the former National Security Council official, said that U.S. law enforcement and intelligence know "virtually nothing" about how the hawala system operates and its relationship to gold."

Waverider: This article is fascinating, a "must read"! One of the points that jumped out is that Gold is free from international reporting requirements for financial transactions. I wonder how soon that will change? Cheers!

Old Yeller

(02/17/2002; 01:17:23 MDT - Msg ID: 70230)

The next dollar?

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html#anchor2
Why,it's the euro,of course.The commentary focuses on the positives of the European economy vs.the many seemingly intractable problems the US economy keeps dipping into.One aspect stands out in the author's discussion of shifting prefences in central bank reserves,nary a mention of gold and the role it can play in prudent diversification of risk.

Black Blade

(02/17/2002; 02:59:28 MDT - Msg ID: 70231)

Jim Puplava - Weekly Update

http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/update.htm
Snippit:

The message in the markets over these last few months is that gold hedging is coming to a halt. The game has changed with Newmont winning its bid for Normandy. That was a key inflection point in the battle for higher gold prices. Newmont and its new management team from Franco Nevada don't believe in hedging gold prices. Newmont now stands out as the largest gold producer in the world with the majority of its gold unhedged. Other large gold hedgers like Anglo Gold have gotten the message and have begun the process of unwinding their gold hedges. Anglo Gold has had a policy of hedging about 50% of its next five year production. It has now begun to deliver to its book to the tune of 3.4 million ounces last year.

As large mining companies begin to unwind their hedge book, more gold will be taken off the market which is bound to further aggravate the supply deficit. As the price of gold rises, more of those hedges will have to be unwound or else many of those companies could find themselves at a severe loss. Key support levels to watch out for are $320, $325, and $350. If gold rises to those levels, the price could begin to explode because of short covering. If gold begins to surpass those levels, many bullion banks could experience severe financial difficulties. This could spell trouble for the largest hedger of them all -- Barrick -- which has hedged 23 million ounces of its production. Barrick has sold close to four years of its future production. The only way that this major short position could be covered would be for central banks to clean their closets of gold -- a frightening thought that could only send gold prices even higher.

Black Blade: Just a reminder, the Puplava weekly update is a good read well worth studying. As I have been discussing that the "Day of the Hedger" is over. Also the growing number of economic, confidence, and currency crises the world over is very positive for Gold.

Belgian

(02/17/2002; 03:03:34 MDT - Msg ID: 70232)

Sunny Sunday Morning

Trapper # 70194 : May I suggest that you re-study the Gold Trail archives. Gold is and will never "back" anything. This time it is going to become totally different ! Read Miner49er's (#70211) outstanding post.
When the issuer of a currency (US$) starts dropping 100$ notes.....??? Don't know if this is a joke, but have come to the point that I wouldn't be surprised if it was true.

Escapethematrix : UK-auctions !? We don't have a clue what happened with those 420 tonnes ? Was this Gold sold to private parties or as an entry ticket for EMU ? The UK can't react on WGC's futurer calculations on the (eventual)losses on these Gold-sales ! Than these Gold barbarics *MUST* explain the *REAL* reasons/purposes for the sales !
And that will remain Top Secret ! Up until the general public can be told (if ever) where Gold is heading.

Gresham : The position of Japan must be vieuwed as (old) axe-center in the far east, that is changing dramatically and Fast >>> CHINA ! Japan is condemnned to stick and sink with the dollar-block (TG). Rating Agencies (Moody's) will do the pushing and guide the flows of paper. Spring is already in the air, my friend. Regards from Belgica.

Miner49er # 70211 : Congratulations Sir ! Very, very nice reading ! AAA-1 Vote for the Hall of Fame. Thanks mate.

Black Blade

(02/17/2002; 03:51:39 MDT - Msg ID: 70233)

Microsoft, Yahoo Face Earnings Cut Under Stock Option Proposal

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APG4R_BZ.TWljcm9z
Snippit:

Seattle, Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Many large U.S. companies, including Microsoft Corp., Yahoo! Inc. and Starbucks Corp., would have their profits slashed or erased under a Senate bill that would make them count the cost of granting employee stock options as an expense in company earnings.

The proposed options bill ``would be intensely fought,'' said C. Clinton Stretch, a partner at Deloitte & Touche LLP. ``There's just a tremendous number of companies that have stock option programs.''

The Financial Accounting Standards Board, an independent group that sets the rules for U.S. companies, tried in the early 1990s to make companies expense stock options as they grew in popularity as a form of compensation. Opposition from Congress and industry lobbyists forced the group to back off.

Black Blade: I doubt that it will pass. Politicians are not exactly the most honest people. It would also help to further crush consumer confidence when corporate earnings reports are released (unless another accounting standard is created or if they hire Arthur Andersen). In the article Warren Buffett nails it with his comments.

Canuck

(02/17/2002; 06:06:40 MDT - Msg ID: 70234)

@ BB

Thanks for the link.

Half a dozen friends and acqaintances that I know who were hired at Nortel after it was well into its tumble negotiated better salary instead of 'options'.

So from the viewpoint of the employee its pretty clear that 'money' or options form compensation so why is it unclear from the viewpoint of the 'issuer'.

It is painfully obvious that these 'yahoos' are stretching the meaning of tax avoidance. Why do we, the taxpayers, have to put up with this bullsnot.

I hope you had the chance to listen to the Don Coxe audio presentation last week, I have never heard him so aggressive. He referred to the 'scum' in accounting land and mentioned a couple of times of the coming return to 'the truth' in accounting practices.
i

Christian

(02/17/2002; 06:47:49 MDT - Msg ID: 70235)

???Debt=Lack of Parity

*******301.00********* ..... US$ = a controller of action, bookeeping of actual production. As we progress towards electronic money it can only function as accounting. ..... Greenspans words I translated from a German Text. "Debt cannot repay debt in the aggregate. Only earnings can retire debt. As for currency or money, it is true that our money system represents debt that has been monetized. The interest lug on this debt will annihilate the middle class and deliver the nation to Third World status. The arrival of raw materials times price-man debited, nature credited-delivers earnings, that might be called monetization of raw materials. Monetization of silver imported from China at a cost to FED last week averaged $18.00. Credit creation gold between central banks sold for $9,009. Socialism is being perpetrated through market mechanism. We have to face a simple fact. They operate above the law upstairs while we downstairs operate with a Constitution no reads or follows. At least the legislation of Rep. Ron Paul just introduced to free gold from price matipulation by the ESF is a legitimate function of the Constitution function in order to provide a level playing field for all participants..

AUtistic

(02/17/2002; 07:13:15 MDT - Msg ID: 70236)

Guessadau

******$303.3******

Canuck

(02/17/2002; 07:16:41 MDT - Msg ID: 70237)

Paul Volcker not spilting hairs!!

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0202150345feb15.story?coll=chi%2Dbusiness%2Dhed"In the midst of the great prosperity and boom of the 1990s, there has been a certain erosion of professional, managerial and ethical standards and safeguards," Volcker said.

"The pressure on management to meet market expectations, to keep earnings rising quarter by quarter or year by year, to measure success by one `bottom line' has led, consciously or not, to compromises at the expense of the public interest in full, accurate and timely financial reporting," he added.

"The fact is," Volcker said, "the accounting profession has been hard-pressed to keep up with the growing complexity of business and finance, with its mind-bending complications of abstruse derivatives, seemingly endless varieties of securitizations and multiplying off-balance-sheet entities. The new profession of financial engineering is exercising enormous ingenuity in finding ways around established accounting conventions or tax regulations.".

Canuck

(02/17/2002; 07:28:16 MDT - Msg ID: 70238)

Paulie on a roll

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/020214/enron_andersen_2.htmlAt the hearing, Volcker described as ``a tempest in a teacup'' an internal Enron memo from Feb. 23, 2001, that shows he asked the company for a $500,000 contribution over five years to an accounting industry-funded organization that helps administers accounting rules.

``Enron, I understand ... agreed to give us half of what we asked for,'' Volcker said. ``We haven't gotten any money. So I don't think there will be any undue influence from that.''

Henri

(02/17/2002; 07:32:50 MDT - Msg ID: 70239)

Contest entry

*****$319.9*****

Three and twenty held for many years as a make or break point. My wager is that it will again be a bastion to be overcome in the seige. As 320 be the target, 319.9 is the failure to attain it. So be it for this cycle.

Clint H

(02/17/2002; 07:44:37 MDT - Msg ID: 70240)

Christian msg#: 70235

Christian
You said,"Monetization of silver imported from China at a cost to FED last week averaged $18.00. Credit creation gold between central banks sold for $9,009."

Could you please give us a link on the numbers?

Trapper

(02/17/2002; 08:06:46 MDT - Msg ID: 70241)

Belgian

I surly agree that no country has a redeemable fiat. I have been aware of this for about 30 years. Having read the book " miracle on main street" by F. Tupper Sausey back in the 70's. I still hold gold and silver from that time. So with reference to the euro ( or the dollar for that matter) all the gold in the vault is only for show.
I will ask once more what is the euro's "gold card" you speak of? Please a simple and forthright amswer, I genuninly want to be enlighted. Live small. Thanks.
RJ

Christian

(02/17/2002; 08:18:40 MDT - Msg ID: 70242)

@Clint H.

How can i post a link when no such link is available. Do you think the FED is so stupid as to provide a link to the prestigious of distinction exorbitat privileges. The $ reserve system is a world tribute system. With it we buy things without having to pay for them. It costs the FED nothing to print that $18.00 to buy the Silver from China. It costs $22.50 to buy the $9,009 credit creation gold. Money is created out of nothing, at a cost of $2.50 per $1,000. When a person buys a $100,000 house the local bank sells that mortgage to the FED at a cost to the FED of $250.00. In my area more then 90% of home mortgages are bundled and sold the GSE's now under ownership and controll of the FED. Socialism is being perpetrated through market mechanism....

Belgian

(02/17/2002; 08:27:55 MDT - Msg ID: 70243)

Decodation of the Waverider/Old Yellar - links

Waverider : Al Qaeda's Gold, a gift from heaven for confiscating some more Physical at his master's $-service.
TG : It is private Gold that was used for maintaining the paper circus. Dubai, Far Eastern Gold center atacked by Western Gold-haters, paper-lovers !?

Old Yeller : The dollar-Bubble. JPM: Thus, our model is consistent with the notion that exchange rates (�/$) are driven by *Capital Flows* rather than trade flows these days !!! Do you feel them coming ? JPM even explains it in the last paragraph : Fewer reservations about euro reserves !
In today's Euroland political debates, some shism within TG's *Political Will* came on the surface : Division between the sclerosed old collectivists (socialists) and the young wolves, getting more and more conscious about the euro-card, Golden card that is. Euroland in its infancy must position itself on the geopolitical map. Up until now without persuasive force but with the euro/gold/oil concept as tenace pressure for the time being !

Thanks to Wave/Yeller for these interesting links !

Belgian

(02/17/2002; 08:55:32 MDT - Msg ID: 70244)

@ Trapper : The euro's Gold card !?

Plain and simple : Dollar flooded Euroland doesn't need this paper anymore ! Soon Euroland will buy oil with euros !
Dollar paper can only be exchanged for Gold ! The US can never deliver REAL GOODS for allllllll the existing Pemanent Depreciating Dollars ! From 1/1/2002 I'm paying/settling *everywhere* in euro. By by dollar ! Hello hello Gold !

Gandalf the White

(02/17/2002; 09:12:51 MDT - Msg ID: 70245)

Attn: Sir Henri !!!

Henri (02/17/02; 07:32:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 70239)
Contest entry
*****$319.9*****
===
Sorry Sir Henri -- But, Sir Pizz has previously chosen the same $319.9 GUESS !
****$319.9**** Pizz (02/14/02; 22:52:31MT msg#: 70084
Could you please revaluate your entry?
BTW, the Hobbits say: CLINK, CLINK, CLINK!
Good Luck
<;-)

AUtistic

(02/17/2002; 09:24:58 MDT - Msg ID: 70246)

Moving towards confiscation?!?!?!?

A quick e-mail from Bill Murphy @ Lemetropole Cafe, in part:
By Douglas Farah
Washington Post
DUBAI,United Arab Emirates, Feb. 17---
" Gold is a huge factor in the moving of TERRORIST MONEY, because you can melt it, smelt it, or deposit it on account, with no questions asked." ---A SENIOR U.S. LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICER
I thought I SMELT something! On ACCOUNT of the thrashings being administered to the Cabal, etal!JPM is pulling out ALL the stops!!!!!!

Trapper

(02/17/2002; 09:49:38 MDT - Msg ID: 70247)

Belgian

I agree that there way to many dollars out in the world. In the vein of Another and FOA I don't see any long term selling oil for euro's either. Why would a Saudi trade something of value (oil) for worthless paper(euros-dollars), when in the end they are printed on the same paper with differnt ink. If the dollar fails completly no one will want any type of paper. Look at all of us here we don't want paper now, how much worse will it be in times of obvious troubles. In the end the euro and the dollar are worth exactly the same ...zero. I have read others posts decry that the US has this great atvantage in the world because we can print worthless paper and buy things of real value. What is the difference if it is Japan and the yen or euroland and the euro. The first country that goes back to PM's for money will be the winner. Thanks.
RJ

Clint H

(02/17/2002; 10:28:25 MDT - Msg ID: 70248)

Christian msg#: 70242)

Christian

<
It costs the FED nothing to print that $18.00 to buy the Silver from China. It costs $22.50 to buy the $9,009 credit creation gold. Money is created out of nothing, at a cost of $2.50 per $1,000. >>

Christian, What you say is interesting and I would like to study the subject a little more. You gave exact numbers. These numbers have an origin but in all the reading that I do I have failed to come across them.
Thanks for your reply.

Flatlander

(02/17/2002; 10:39:58 MDT - Msg ID: 70249)

************293.00**********

All stops will be pulled out to keep the price of gold down until after the expirary date. It should move up solidly after that.

Mr Gresham

(02/17/2002; 10:40:25 MDT - Msg ID: 70250)

miner49er

That was some fine, original, and inspiring work! I think you've opened up some new vistas for students of "money" and even for Doug Noland, with his catalogues of "financial claims" abounding, who could pick up a few new ones he hadn't thought of.

You really are peering behind the curtain, and pointing to the system's use of the dimension of Time (something "they ain't makin' anymore of") to buy off people's expectations in the present. People just cannot do those Misesian time preference calcs in their heads, can they? (Nor their liquidity preference calcs, nor those hedonic multipliers, eh?)

And, like Oisin, many more of them than we imagine will "walk on the earth,
A creeping old man, full of sleep, with the spittle on his beard never dry."

The idea of locking in people's dollar value expectations is crucial, while planning to give them tolerable "haircuts", and something I thought much about when I came to this board in '99, full of Y2k bank run expectations (well, possibilities).

Killing the long bond recently may have made this somewhat more doubtful, but my question then was (and is): How does the government buy off people's tendency to riot when they're told their money isn't "There" in the bank? (Another case of "There is no There there"?)

Most short-term demand deposits would be converted to long-term "socialized" obligations. I imagined then that a form of unmarketable government long bond would be created (somewhat like Social Security -- in fact, add it to their individual Social Security account future promised payments?) that would be called something patriotic like "National Savings Accounts", and basically pledge future taxpayer-supplied revenues to making them somewhat whole, just under the riot threshhold.

At least it had the advantage (to TPTB) of booting the whole thing into the future, and with all liquidity tied up in a crashing system, Time would be the only thing not Sold Off yet. (Well, actually yes, if you did the calculations, but in a Nation of Innumeracy, no one would really notice.)

Put this all in a WarTime climate, and people will swallow most of what a Gov dishes out, won't they?

Good work -- I hope you enjoyed writing it as much as I enjoyed reading it!

mikal

(02/17/2002; 10:55:21 MDT - Msg ID: 70251)

@Waverider,AUtistic, Belgian, all

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A22303-2002Feb16.htmlBy Douglas Farah
Washington Post Foreign Service
Sunday, February 17, 2002; Page A01
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates -- Just as the United States and its allies swept toward Afghanistan's main cities last autumn, the ruling Taliban and Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network sent waves of couriers with bars of gold and bundles ofdollars across the porous border into Pakistan.
In small shops and businesses along the border, the money and gold, taken from Afghanistan's banks and national coffers..." Perhaps they mean waves of soldiers from the US and Nortern Alliance "laundering money from drug trafficking, organized crime and terrorist activities" I see this article as, not a prelude to confiscation, but a continuation of corporate megalomania and disinformation. First, to continue to isolate and villify the UAE, Dubai, Pakistan, and Arabs in general. Second, to justify the "war" on terrorism and war related budgets and restrictions on citizens in the US such as Bureau of ATF, Homeland Insecurity, etc. Third, to lay the groundwork for US and allies withdrawal from aftermath of the Afghan bombings, social, civil, and political. And fourth, to smother the trail of their own "confiscations" sheltered away in ironically similar havens. More snippit: "Three former Clinton administration officials said that two senior U.S. delegations went to the emirates, one in July 1999 and one in January 2000, to press for measures against terrorist financing. "We got exactly nowhere," said a participant in one of the meetings.
A spokesman for the UAE Ministry of Information said the "visits and requests from the U.S. in 1999 and 2000 represented a part of the normal exchange of information . . . aimed at enhancing cooperation and tackling issues of mutual concern."
Since Sept. 11, U.S. officials said, the emirates have been much more cooperative on tracing suspect finances and last month enacted the most stringent money laundering laws in the region.
U.S. investigators acknowledge they have been slow to focus on the trail of gold and the hawala network. While a handful of investigators had been urging that more attention be paid to those areas, they were largely ignored because the concepts are so foreign to the Western way of doing business, current and former officials said..." - Not exactly, since they have been involved in weapons, drugs, female slave, and gold smuggling for many years but are ceding the territory to regional powers. Cultural schisms also developed into chasms.

Mr Gresham

(02/17/2002; 11:06:13 MDT - Msg ID: 70252)

Homeownership tax benefits

http://www.startribune.com/stories/417/1407628.htmlNow here's one I've always wondered about, and somebody's finally put it into usable stats:

"How big are the annual tax benefits of homeownership? And who, gets the bulk of those tax goodies? ...

"The report on "tax expenditures" by the bipartisan Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that in fiscal 2002 alone, homeowners will divvy up $66.5 billion worth of deductions for mortgage interest payments and $21.4 billion for local property tax write-offs, and will pocket nearly $14 billion tax-free on home sale profits."

[Gresham: This does not sound right to me, as $66 billion is less than $1000 per household. My guess is that these figures are the tax _savings_ rather than the interest amounts paid and deducted. At a 15% to 28% bracket, that amount would be maybe 5x higher.]

"All in all, homeowners will split about $102 billion in direct federal largesse. Renters will get zero in direct federal tax subsidies.

"The report documents that the vast majority of homeownership subsidies go to people with the highest incomes. During fiscal 2001, according to the tax committee, among all homeowning households that itemized deductions on their tax returns, those with incomes of $50,000 or under received less than 6 percent of the $64.5 billion in mortgage interest deduction subsidies. Households with incomes between $50,000 and $75,000 took double that -- about 12.2 percent of the benefits.

"Households with incomes of $75,000 to $100,000 took another 18.9 percent, while taxpayers with household incomes above $100,000 received by far the heftiest share -- 62.7 percent of all benefits available to homeowners who itemized their deductions...

"The pattern is similar with property tax write-offs. ...The committee didn't do a separate distribution analysis for home-sale capital gains exclusions, but the results are likely to be the same. ..." ("Kenneth Harney is a nationally syndicated columnist on real estate ")

Better sell that high-profit home in the next few years, before they start calling in that "lost" revenue...

sourdough

(02/17/2002; 11:28:46 MDT - Msg ID: 70253)

Tamisuke Matsufuji (get used to that name)

It sure would be interesting to see an update on the "gold related assets" of Jipangu inc.
I re post below the old news release concerning Jipangu`s holdings.
These investments in gold producers should give them access to "purchase" production. It may be at spot price but they still must have first call on any gold produced and sold by these companies.
Is it possible that all the gold mined by these companies is destined for Japan?
Anyone have a tally on total production of the companies Jipangu has a stake in?
On researching Jipangu, a private company, I find that they are not some individual stand alone entity.
JIPANGU INC. IS "PART OF THE USHINOMIYA GROUP!"
I can`t find anything in English about this organization.
It`s capital base would be of interest. It`s relation with the government (if any) would be of interest. If it controls any banks, etc.
As it stands we don`t know how much yen/dollar Jipangu has access too.
One thing I believe we here can all agree on.
"TAMISUKE MATSUFUJI" would be our pick for Japan`s finance minister. I would be pleased to hear that Matsufuji and Koizumi belong to the same country club.
As a poster mentioned previously, "GOLD RULES".
Hmm, not a bad slogan for the WGC.
"read this old release again, it may say much more than at first glance.
.....

The following are excerpts from a Dow Jones News Service INTERVIEW by Jim Hawe (DJ) with Mr. Tamisuke Matsufuji, Founder & CEO of Jipangu Corp of Japan.

Tamisuke Matsufuji has developed a knack for making outlandish predictions that have a way of coming true. The president of the gold mining and investment firm, Jipangu Incorporated, and author of numerous bestsellers on contrarian investing, has forecast everything from the collapse of Japanese real estate and stock prices to the failure of Yamaichi Securities. But recently his crystal ball has taken on a decidedly golden hue. According to Matsufuji, 46, gold prices are now sitting on a powder keg - and he is expecting Japan to light the fuse. "The price of gold is ready to take off. It could go up to Y3,000 or even Y4,000 (per gram) easy...and Japan could lead the way," Matsufuji recently said in a recent interview with Dow Jones Newswires.

Matsufuji said the rally "could happen soon." Gold at Y3,000/gram is roughly equivalent to $764 per troy ounce. Gold, which hit a high of $875 an ounce in 1980, has long been languishing in the doldrums. April 2002 gold futures on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange was trading Wednesday at Y1,054/gram at 0615 GMT. Spot gold at 0615 GMT was at $272.10/oz. The man the Economist magazine once described as "rich and rude" admits that he is in the minority, as gold's 21-year bear run has scared away most backers.

"But I see the Dow falling sharply, the dollar plummeting to Y80 and bond prices crashing. Eventually, the only safe alternatives will be gold and shares in gold mining companies," said Matsufuji. "That is why I founded Jipangu. It's a kind of 'insurance' company." Jipangu was set up in 1995.

Preparing for the Coming Golden Age Matsufuji was evasive when pressed for specifics to back up his predictions, and prefers to fall back on historical models.

"When U.S. stocks crashed in 1929, prices of gold and shares in gold mining companies soared, and the same thing is about to happen again," he said. Matsufuji is so convinced of the coming gold boom that he has been putting his money where his prognostication is - and in a very big way.

Through Jipangu, he has been snapping up major stakes in mining companies around the globe. He already has a 24% stake in High River Gold Mines Ltd., a 22% stake in Cambior Inc. and a 24% stake in Claimstaker Resources Ltd. (now J-Pacific Gold Inc.), all three based in Canada, and he also has the option to buy a significant stake in South African mining giant Harmony Gold Co. Ltd.

Altogether Matsufuji has his hand in some 40 projects around the world. Based on his own estimates, some 20 million ounces of gold, or 622 tons, are now under his control. That is more than twice of Australia's 2000 output of 295.7 tons of gold. Australia is the world's third biggest gold producer.

Japanese Investors Seen As Key "I want to give Japanese investors the opportunity to invest in gold and gold mining companies around the world without exposure to currency risks," said Matsufuji, who sees Japanese investors as a key element in the new golden age.

"Japan is the world's largest creditor nation. Individual assets total more than 1,300 trillion yen. If just 1% of this money could be moved into gold, that would instantly account for five years worth of global production, and gold prices would skyrocket," Matsufuji said.

"Japan has the potential to really move the market," said Matsufuji, who hopes Jipangu will serve as the vehicle for pumping more Japanese money into the gold market.

Matsufuji explained that the word 'Jipangu' was first bought to the West by Marco Polo as a term describing Japan as an "island of gold". "That is why I named my company Jipangu. I want Japan to again be full of gold."

Max Rabbitz

(02/17/2002; 11:36:38 MDT - Msg ID: 70254)

GATA conference available on C-span site, 5 Stars

http://www.c-span.org/business_economy/I just finished watching. It's listed half way down in the page link above. There is some net congestion and it's better to have a fast connection. Having video with the audio slows things down but it's nice to put faces with the words. I was impressed. Chris Powell and Bill Murphy presented a clear case. Catherine Austin Fitts was unknown to me but was very sharp and so clear with her points, especially in the question and answer period (time 1:10 to 1:20 and later). She was a former assistant secretary at HUD ("a criminal enterprise" also cooking the books) and kept the focus on the need for transparency in a free market. The gold manipulation is not just an isolated commodity manipulation case, it is not just an effort to control currency values but to control all markets. Started with "Bill Clinton's revenge on the Bond Markets" that wouldn't allow all his social spending plans. An assistant to Ron Paul attended and spoke from the audience about the gold accounting bill just introduced. Chris Powell To all who want a good review of the evidence it is presented here (1hr 50 min). I just wish I had a faster connection as I had to periodically wait for the buffering, but worth it.

It's taken me about a year to conclude that GATA is correct. I'm a little slow. Consider the depths of the problems to come. The bankers have put us in a fine mess. I have the feeling that gold is going to get very hot and remember Trail Guide advising the older historical gold coins. Those $10 Eagles of MK's are looking pretty good.

Solomon Weaver

(02/17/2002; 11:40:44 MDT - Msg ID: 70255)

What will Bush do?

1. Nothing
2. Tax all gold transactions
3. Outlaw Gold
4. Weaken the Yen
5. Back off on the bank account insurance cap legislation
6. Dump their gold reserves on the market. As of 1/2001 they had 764 tons.

Number 5 is the easiest to do.

Solomon Weaver

(02/17/2002; 12:10:10 MDT - Msg ID: 70256)

Anyone on the Forum familiar with the writings of Kevin Phillips?

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/president/interviews/phillips.html

There was a good article today in my Newspaper which was a syndicated article written by Kevin Phillips....found this quite interesting interview with him.....

. . . . . . . . .

SNIPPET

Q: That's a shift in cast. Is that a shift in magnitude? Are you more suspicious of the relationship between today's financiers and today's politicians than you were in retrospect, or that one would be in retrospect of the arrangements of the 1920's or the 1890's?

Phillips: Absolutely. I think you could fairly say that we'd be more suspicious of the relations between steel company owners and railroad owners, back 50 or 100 years ago. But you should be more suspicious of financiers today.

Q: Why?

Phillips: Well, because the change in finance from electronic finance is staggering. The extent to which you have these computers playing search and destroy in the world economy, figuring out what to short here, what to hedge there, is just absolutely unprecedented.

Q: But they don't need a president or a senator to make that. They're sitting there at those computers that are thinking, buy francs, buy pounds, sell this, sell that. And they never lift a phone and say, 'Senator, can I have your help?' It's too fast. It seems to me that politics is too slow for what they do.

Phillips: Well, they don't have to lift it on the contract, obviously. What they lift the phone for is to say, 'You guys don't want to regulate this, do you? We don't want to have a futures commission. We don't want to do anything to Bankers Trust. Remember that great dinner we had, Charlie, and all the fellowship?' You know, we really don't want anything to interfere with us. And nothing has.

Q: How many of these people, these financial people, are there? In Washington, are they represented by a dozen people? Or 1000 or what?

Phillips: Oh, they're represented by the best minds money can buy. Essentially what you've got here is an extraordinary buildup of power. There are magazines that publish the most successful 50 people or something in the financial community. It used to be that somebody making $6 million a year would be at the top. And then you'd go down to somebody making 1.1, and this is 20 years ago. Now it starts with people making $450 million in that year, because their hedge fund was making a lot of money, and the poor people at the bottom of the list was somebody that cleared like $31 million. So you're looking at staggering sums of money. And the ability to hire every law firm, every public relations firm...Every political consultant in Washington has got a client that is somewhere in this stew pot.

Mr Gresham

(02/17/2002; 12:10:44 MDT - Msg ID: 70257)

Doug Noland -- Credit Bubble Bulletin followup

http://216.46.231.211/boards/user/non-frames/message.asp?forumid=4&messageid=106265&threadid=106218The CBB this Friday had a lot of accounting examples showing how money market funds are the core of "money" creation in this financial bubble. His followup (unnecessarily apologetic, Doug) conveys more visually how the system is upside-down, with financial speculations still leeching off the productive/investment side as it goes down to losses.

Hmmmm, is that a temperature inversion pattern I see outside my window? Bee-ee-eeg thunderstorm ahead!

Solomon Weaver

(02/17/2002; 12:13:36 MDT - Msg ID: 70258)

Chris - Will there be a written transcript of the C-SPAN event?

Cavan Man

(02/17/2002; 12:20:25 MDT - Msg ID: 70259)

POS

Kevin Phillips is a conservative author, commentator and columnist. He is very credible and very bright.

#5 is the easiest but the horse is out of the barn IMHO. Cap or no cap; the situation in Japan is really bad and everybody knows it. Better for the Japanese private sector to buy gold NOW for the benefit it will provide and sustain in the months and years to come. Gold will become officially monetized out of necessity escaping the shadowy world of commodity trading on futures exchanges. I hope same for silver. "Hi ho".

Solomon Weaver

(02/17/2002; 12:37:54 MDT - Msg ID: 70260)

HyakuManenkiro NiHyakuManenkiro SanByakuManenkiro

I Noticed this quote about gold going to Yen 2,000 or 3,000 per gram.......I recently put together a little analysis of the psychological importance of Yen 1,000 per gram because it is HyakuMan en Kiro (1 million Yen per Kg) and believe that NiHyakuMan en Kiro (2 million Yen per Kg)will be an important resistance..so I notice that the king of gold in Japan thinks in the same HyakuMan en layers....Note that YenGold is about to reach critical resistance of 10 years at about 1400 yen/gram....partly cause of gold up and also cause of Yen down. I think spending some time thinking of gold prices from the eyes of the Japanese is a good way to break through the DollarGold fixation on $300 and realize a point often raised by Randy at the Tower that where trouble emerges Argentina, Indonesia, Japan, gold owners often see dramatic capital preservation which is not visible in the DollarGold world.

BELOW SNIPPET FROM PRESS

"Tamisuke Matsufuji has developed a knack for making outlandish predictions that have a way of coming true. The president of the gold mining and investment firm, Jipangu Incorporated, and author of numerous bestsellers on contrarian investing, has forecast everything from the collapse of Japanese real estate and stock prices to the failure of Yamaichi Securities. But recently his crystal ball has taken on a decidedly golden hue. According to Matsufuji, 46, gold prices are now sitting on a powder keg - and he is expecting Japan to light the fuse. "The price of gold is ready to take off. It could go up to Y3,000 or even Y4,000 (per gram) easy...and Japan could lead the way," Matsufuji recently said in a recent interview with Dow Jones Newswires."

BELOW: OBESERVATION OF THIS PHILOSOPHER....ALL SLOPPYRIGHTS RESERVED.

In Japan, having 10 fingers, the ancients discovered the same decimal system. But unlike the Romans who loved M (1000) the Japanese have a system with increments of 100. Just as we think in millions, billions, trillions....they tend to ratchet up in 100s.

10 = Ju
100 = Hyaku
1000 = Sen
10,000 = Man (100x100)
100,000 = JuMan
1,000,000 = HyakuMan (100x100x100)

http://www.aikiweb.com/language/counting.html Note that this site teaches you how to count to Man (10,000)

I became vividly aware of this while living in Japan and realizing they had a special name for 10,000 (Man) and that one hundred Man (HyakuMan) had a very similar type of psychological meaning as "million" has for us.

Oddly enough, when it comes to distance and weights, the Japanese have accepted the Euro based metric system...so they commonly refer to Kiro (Kilo) for distance or weight. Oddly enough, a kilo of gold sells for something near HyakuMan en (yen).

The next thing that one finds, is that Japanese save for funerals and weddings....and often round out the price in their minds to how many HyakuMan en (My daughter's wedding was GoHyakuMan en (5 million yen).

So go back to Sharfin's chart and ponder it with with an eye for 1000 Yen per gram being a psychological number a lot like 300.
http://www.sharelynx.net/Markets/Charts/AUTOCOM.htm Note that since 1992, there has been some pretty strong resistance at about 1400 with an attempt in 1995 to test the HyakuMan (1000) line but not getting there. So, in mid 1999 YenGold broke down through HyakuMan en Kiro and would have looked like a bargain to Japanese Gold bugs. For the following year, with the exception of Washington agreement, and the hedgebuyback spike in Feb 2000...TOCOM trades towards but never seems to break above HyakuMan en Kiro. Then in early 2001, it breaks HyakuMan en Kiro....tests 1050, 1100, 1200 and 1300 (a visible trend with resistance coming soon at 1400). Above 1400 I estimate the potential for a strong move to NiHyakuMan en Kiro (2000Y/gr.)

One last point.....the Y10million cap on Insured deposits is better understood as JuHyakuMan (10 of those HyakuMan) and when an investor looks at his account, he (she as in housewife) will note how many extra HyakuMan they have above the 10HyakuMan line ....until recently, that would have equalled the number of kilos of gold which could be bought......you should hear Japanese wives gossip...I can hear it now....hey did you see what gold is doing.....seems like last week I looked and it was HyakuMan en Kiro...now it seems like almost NiHyakuMan en Kiro....

Oddly enough, the FDIC seems to have been brought into place to ENCOURAGE Americans to save by agreeing to Federally insure deposits to $100,000. Now the Japanese use the same number but since the average saver has more, it is a discouragement.

Greetings all....PooroldSol

Rock

(02/17/2002; 12:44:59 MDT - Msg ID: 70261)

####contest $320.20

hey all you beautiful people its nice reading all of your inteligent insights concerning gold and its revelance to the times in which we live. i enjoy coming to this form especially when theres activity in the markets. i've been a gold bug since 1998 when i cashed out my 401K's and looking back at that move i think i made the right choice. i took a tax hit of almost 50% but thats still more than most 401k's have now.

most of the posts that i have been reading over the past few years have taught me so much and has given me a ray of hope to hold on to what i have for the long haul. every now and again i read a post that uses the bible to make it sound like its a sin to own gold and silver. I have discoverd those kinds of comments usually come from individuals that dont have any PM's.

anything can be taken out of contest concerning the bible and cults twist biblicial text everyday to support their docrines. so when i read that post last week that sounded very negative concerning the bible and gold i would like to show a postive verse for the precious metals.

In Job 42:11 after job had passed the test and the Lord restored him, picking up on verse 11 " all his brothers and sisters and everyone who had known him before came and ate with him in his house. They comforted and consoled him over all the trouble the Lord had brought upon him, AND EACH ONE GAVE HIM A PIECE OF SILVER AND A GOLD RING."

touche' is all i can say. even the bible shows value in gold and silver in that gods people used it back then and they still use it today.

#####contest#### $320.20 (if it hadnt been snatched yet)

it wouldn't surprise me if the market went as high as 400 an ounce in this world of uncertainty where any event could send the market rocketing skyward. with middle east tensions, the indians and the pakistan ready to vaporize each other at the press of a button, with terrorism waiting behind the shadows for the right time to do what ever it is they do not even to mention the market in general. i guess what i'm saying is its a dangerous world we live in. people are losing the life's savings because of corporate fraud and the paper minipulation of contracts and on and on. those are just a few reasons why owning PM's are not only prudent but wise.

Henri

(02/17/2002; 12:54:39 MDT - Msg ID: 70262)

Mr Gresham

But they have sold off time. Bonds issued which our great grandchildren will still be paying off...all so "We" can maintain our lifestyle.

Chris Powell

(02/17/2002; 13:04:43 MDT - Msg ID: 70263)

Italian and German papers report about GATA

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1016Italian and German financial newspapers report
about GATA:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1016

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Chris Powell

(02/17/2002; 13:05:38 MDT - Msg ID: 70264)

CBSMarketWatch recommends tape of GATA conference

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1017Thom Calandra of CBSMarketWatch.com
recommends tape of GATA conference:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1017

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Chris Powell

(02/17/2002; 13:06:27 MDT - Msg ID: 70265)

Rep. Ron Paul's statement on GATA in Congressional Record

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1018U.S. Rep. Ron Paul puts statement in Congressional
Record about GATA's work:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1018

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Siochain

(02/17/2002; 14:47:27 MDT - Msg ID: 70266)

(No Subject)

Just a quick note...I won't be posting for awhile ...Mom passed away unexpectedly last night ...so there is much to do

I know you will keep her in your golden prayers
Mary Ann...Siochain,,Peace!!

Mr Gresham

(02/17/2002; 14:57:00 MDT - Msg ID: 70267)

Siochain

My condolences -- bring peace wherever you go, and come back soon.

darkhorse

(02/17/2002; 14:58:28 MDT - Msg ID: 70268)

@Siochain

I'm sorry for your loss. Me thinks your mother may now be walking streets of gold. May God be with you and yours.

Black Blade

(02/17/2002; 15:28:52 MDT - Msg ID: 70269)

Barrick to Sell Gold At Spot for First Time in 14 Years

http://allafrica.com/stories/200202160122.html
Snippit:

The gold industry's arch-hedger and easy villain for purists will contribute to the upbeat tone of the bullion market this year by selling half its production at spot prices; the first time in more than a decade that it will not make full use of its premium gold sales programme.

Addressing a presentation in New York on Friday, chief executive Randall Oliphant was unrepentant about the company's extensive hedging, despite being vilified for it by an increasing number of money managers, analysts and retail investors.

Black Blade: Cutting back their hedging program huh? Too little - too late. Olipants and Munky can tout their Hedge program all they want. The ABX shareholder has not benefited from any POG gains, however, the upper management sure got a lot of "bonuses". Interesting that the ABX share price under performed the price of Gold, whereas, non-hedged miner shares have sky-rocketed. Gold mining share prices typically rise in advance of physical Gold. The day of the Mega-Hedger is over and Barrick could find itself in a difficult situation with a rising POG.

sourdough

(02/17/2002; 15:36:45 MDT - Msg ID: 70270)

Jipangu (nice postion to be in)

So Jipangu likes to buy positions in small producers that gives them a strong voice in management decisions.
They have enough company clout to ensure gold production can be purchased by them if desired at spot.
They may have enough financial backing that any forward sales contracts could be negotiated with Jipangu determining who will receive future production.(Japan)
They also may have the option of approaching the companies they have interest in, suggesting they hold back gold sales. If they suspect they can get gold to 400+ u.s., it could be quite profitable, (considering their interest in the company, say,25%) to finance production costs using gold produced as collateral.
If Jipangu had access to yen at 1%, they could lend to gold company at 2% to finance production. Holding gold produced from the market until a much higher price is achieved on any sale.
Since gold stock prices increase more than physical price, and they have a fair percentage of company equity, this could be the more profitable way to go.
They make money on the loan, are secured by physical gold produced. They also clean up on share value increases as gold supply is restriced, price rises and gold production is sold at much higher prices.
So, it seems possible that yen could be loaned to cover production costs , secured by physical gold produced. At 2% gold would have to increase in price by $6 annually for producer to break even.
theoretically possible?, theoretically profitable?

Black Blade

(02/17/2002; 15:38:15 MDT - Msg ID: 70271)

Al-Qaeda gold shipments routed through Dubai

http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/news/story/0,2276,36320,00.html?
Snippit:

Gold has allowed the Taliban and Osama to largely preserve their financial resources, despite the military attack that battered their forces in Afghanistan, investigators and intelligence sources said. Gold played a uniquely important role in the group's financial structure because it is a global currency. 'Gold is a huge factor in the moving of terrorist money because you can melt it, smelt it or deposit it on account with no questions asked,' said a senior US law enforcement official investigating gold transactions. 'Why move it through Dubai? Because there is a wilful blindness there.

Black Blade: Exactly why everyone should hold Gold. It is anonymous and free from Government control. It is the ultimate money for sovereign people. Yeah, I know that this article is an attempt to "taint" Gold, but it also (unintentionally) focuses on a an even more important point - economic freedom.

slingshot

(02/17/2002; 15:46:23 MDT - Msg ID: 70272)

Siochain

******Sorry for your loss. Will say a few prayers for her.
Slingshot

Mr Gresham

(02/17/2002; 15:52:24 MDT - Msg ID: 70273)

It Seemed Like a Good Idea at the Time

http://www.msnbc.com/news/707736.asp?pne=msnIs Financial Engineering the Son of Nuclear Engineering? (In other words, where did all the GE "too cheap to meter" -- is that like "Gold is too cheap to charge real interest rates on?" -- wizards go? Did they all slide on over to GE Capital? )

Gold's problem? It's just not CLEVER. Like all these modern wizards are. Too boring for them to work with. It doesn't DO anything. It just SITS there. And sits. And sits.

And when we've lost all our money to these clever guys. And the technological advances that were supposed to make our lives better, are not disseminated, or maintained, due to lack of basic funding. We're still supposed to be IN AWE of how CLEVER these guys were. (Biographies written, TV specials in Sweeps Week, awards, Presidential Medals.) While they clipped us for the best years of our (and our children's) lives.

I'm imagining some old Indian leaning back in an old chair outside his shack (maybe Northern Paiute, there in Nevada) telling no one in particular: "You white fellas had a good thing going there. For awhile."

AUtistic

(02/17/2002; 16:16:51 MDT - Msg ID: 70274)

Black Blade #70271

HEAR!!HEAR!!!!!!

Gandalf the White

(02/17/2002; 16:51:25 MDT - Msg ID: 70275)

The COMEX February '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST

ALSO -- NOTES to Sir Rock and Sir Henri !!!UPDATE !!!

THE RULES (revisited) --
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of
(GC2G) on the date of Friday the 22th of February.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "stars" *****
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as *****$543.2*****
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, Feb. 21th.
6) A short "WHY" discussion paragraph should accompany your prognostication.
GOOD LUCK ALL !
----
UNAVAILABLE ( because of prior claim ) ENTRY !!

****$319.9**** Henri (02/17/02; 07:32:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 70239)
Please enter again, Sir Henri !!

****$320.20***Rock (02/17/02; 12:44:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 70261)
OOPS -- SORRY Sir Rock -- Tommy P beat you to it yesterday !
Please try one of these open slots ! <;-)

Rumors of Guesses which require Confirmation and discussion ! <;-)
****$ 8,752.0 **** The Invisible Hand (02/13/02; 20:31:45MT msg#: 69957
As this was posted before the contest started, do you wish to modify the rather large value ?
(MAYBE HIGHER ?) <;-)

#################################################
PROGRESS REPORT !!
GUESSES in order of DECENDING Value

****$1,500.0**** LimitUp (02/14/02; 23:41:07MT msg#: 70090)

****$929.0**** golden rule (02/14/02; 18:10:01MT msg#: 70049

****$448.4**** techbull.... (02/16/02; 22:30:45MT msg#: 70224

****$437.5**** Econoclast (02/14/02; 19:05:57MT msg#: 70063

****$379.0**** sstins (02/14/02; 14:34:25MT msg#: 70015

****$352.2**** goldquest (02/14/02; 13:52:51MT msg#: 70010

****$339.0**** rsjacksr (02/15/02; 20:15:47MT msg#: 70164)

****$333.3**** Guided (02/16/02; 14:33:23MT msg#: 70206

****$329.1****.Clint H (2/15/02; 09:40:17MT msg#: 70111)
****$329.0**** ROSEBUD99 (2/15/02; 09:32:21MT msg#: 70110)

****$327.6**** RobotGuy (2/15/02; 08:09:30MT msg#: 70104

****$320.2**** Tommy P (02/16/02; 13:33:42MT msg#: 70201

****$319.9**** Pizz (02/14/02; 22:52:31MT msg#: 70084

****$319.2**** MidEastGold (2/15/02; 07:05:36MT msg#: 70102

****$318.2**** A Canadian (02/14/02; 14:36:41MT msg#: 70016

****$317.9**** wiley (02/14/02; 20:41:56MT msg#: 70076

****$316.3**** slingshot (02/14/02; 14:22:58MT msg#: 70012

****$315.0**** neer-do-well (02/16/02; 21:14:28MT msg#: 70217

****$312.5**** darkhorse (02/14/02; 13:35:52MT msg#: 70009

****$312.1**** Voyager (2/15/02; 12:50:14MT msg#: 70138)

****$310.0**** Boxman (02/15/02; 18:52:21MT msg#: 70160

****$309.7**** Hektor (02/16/02; 14:31:01MT msg#: 70205

****$309.5**** Siochain (02/14/02; 20:07:10MT msg#: 70070

****$308.7**** law (02/14/02; 22:17:01MT msg#: 70080

****$308.1**** goldenpeace (02/14/02; 13:22:48MT msg#: 70008

****$307.9**** Jon (2/15/02; 13:02:47MT msg#: 70141

****$307.7**** Waverider (02/14/02; 15:13:23MT msg#: 70021

****$306.1**** EagleOne (02/14/02; 14:27:04MT msg#: 70014

****$305.4**** Achilles (2/15/02; 05:25:21MT msg#: 70099)

****$305.0**** Broken Tee (2/15/02; 14:32:54MT msg#: 70143)

****$304.4**** Solomon Weaver (02/16/02; 10:53:18MT msg#: 70190

****$304.2**** balzac (02/14/02; 17:34:42MT msg#: 70041

****$303.8**** uponroof (02/14/02; 14:24:30MT msg#: 70013

****$303.3**** AUtistic (02/17/02; 07:13:15MT msg#: 70236)

****$303.1**** Operative (2/16/02; 03:47:42MT msg#: 70184

****$302.5**** Canuck Gold (02/14/02; 15:09:18MT msg#: 70019

****$302.3**** Mythical (02/14/02; 21:42:32MT msg#: 70079

****$301.9**** goldroadlx7 (02/16/02; 12:39:41MT msg#: 70195

****$301.0**** Christian (02/17/02; 06:47:49MT msg#: 70235)

****$300.1**** VanRip (02/14/02; 18:25:51MT msg#: 70054

****$299.9**** Artie Farkle (2/15/02; 02:08:09MT msg#: 70097

****$299.0**** Carl H (02/14/02; 14:20:24MT msg#: 70011

****$298.7**** Truthcaster (02/14/02; 18:25:45MT msg#: 70053

****$298.4**** Topaz (02/14/02; 23:39:21MT msg#: 70089

****$297.9**** Knallgold (2/15/02; 07:47:09MT msg#: 70103

****$296.7**** The CoinGuy (02/14/02; 17:14:39MT msg#: 70037

****$293.0**** Flatlander (02/17/02; 10:39:58MT msg#: 70249)

****$292.8**** Trapper (02/14/02; 19:44:13MT msg#: 70067

****$292.0**** Grubstaker (02/14/02; 22:50:18MT msg#: 70083)
****$291.9**** silvercollector (02/15/02; 16:41:09MT msg#: 70149

****$290.0**** HOOSIER GOLDBUG (02/14/02; 15:50:12MT msg#: 70031
****$289.9**** miner49er (02/14/02; 15:30:03MT msg#: 70026

****$274.9**** Frosty (02/14/02; 18:55:58MT msg#: 70060
===
Watch your Prognostications !!
See the slots available ? Soon they will be bunched tightly!
<;-)

Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD

(02/17/2002; 17:37:15 MDT - Msg ID: 70276)

Hard Assets... Easy Access!

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

U.S. Liberty $10 Eagle
$10 Liberty

A "Premium" Opportunity

Call Centennial for details, or order online.
1-800-869-5115

CoBra(too)

(02/17/2002; 17:57:15 MDT - Msg ID: 70277)

POG Contest - and being an Optimist ...

and not a real betting guy, I would say the PTB will and may try to keep it - the POG - below 300, a level, which in itself wouldn't defy the sly perpetrators to still decry a short term victory of fiat mimicri.

So, as I've stated being an optimist - on the POG -
(or rather a pessimist on the economic and currency systemic affairs) I'll wager that the PTB have lost control, due to a lack of physical reserves and will not be able to stop the parabol(ic) advance of POG next week - or any week follwing next!

Optimistic POG Bet: **** 315,30 ****

Optimistically yours,
cb2

Shermag

(02/17/2002; 18:38:33 MDT - Msg ID: 70278)

**** $319.8****

The recent pressure to hold it below the $300 level will soon be overcome by the pull of ever increasing demand for physical. The recent strength of gold mining shares is an indicator of this pressure, and is probably a harbinger of a rise in the metal.

goldenboy

(02/17/2002; 19:01:27 MDT - Msg ID: 70279)

@Canuck: On Don Coxe & Gold, Inflation

I could not get the audio feed but have read his last 2 issues. What I find interesting about him is his belief that there will not be serious inflation, more like deflation for any goods that Asia can produce. I find it a disconcerting view as my bets are on pm`s and residential income real estate which are geared to inflation. I keep feeling as if there is a rerun of the 70`s going on right now, (early stages) but what is different this time?
Well, for one, no pricing power to labour due to free trade and millions willing to work for next to nothing. Of course, the youth here are stuck with the high cost of socialism (taxes) for the privilege of cheaper goods they get to buy with smaller salaries and Mcjobs.
At the end of the day, I still believe gov`s will print their way out of trouble and attack the value of bonds and savings. The value of foreign goods may stay relatively low, but there will be increased competition for those Kanata executive homes, gold, collecti=bles etc.as people dump stocks and bonds in favour of wealth in the form of tangible values.

Trapper

(02/17/2002; 19:02:13 MDT - Msg ID: 70280)

Siochain

The loss of one's mother is very difficult...My prayers will be for your strength.
God Bless
RJ

auenboy

(02/17/2002; 19:31:09 MDT - Msg ID: 70281)

Gold Price Contest

My Price is 324.10
I believe gold will break out over the top side of a technical flag formation and add $26.00 quickly, I caution anyone reading this that I am very bullish, after the move to 307-8.

Angel

(02/17/2002; 19:55:18 MDT - Msg ID: 70282)

Gold Contest

*******304.70*******
Back to lurking......Thanks

The Invisible Hand

(02/17/2002; 20:07:18 MDT - Msg ID: 70283)

Scarce water and scarce gold

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/middle_east/newsid_1825000/1825831.stmThe link on http://news.bbc.co.uk said "Liquid gold". The article is entitled "Dubai's great water gamble". It deals with the water shortage in the UAE. The only reference to gold is under a picture and says "Dubai is one of the world's leading gold markets". Why is this barbarous relic being mentioned?

Waverider

(02/17/2002; 21:05:41 MDT - Msg ID: 70284)

DUBAI: To Open International Financial Centre

http://www.khaleejtimes.co.ae/lead.htmSnippit:
"DUBAI yesterday announced the establishment of an international financial centre which, in the words of General Shaikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Crown Prince of the emirate and UAE's Defence Minister, will be a "bridge between financial markets of the East and the West".

He said there was no option but to create a place for the well-informed financial dealers, instead of watching as bystanders while developments take place all around. Gen. Shaikh Mohammed added that Dubai International Financial Centre would be a centre like those of London, Frankfurt, Zurich, Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo and New York.

The objective is to bridge the gap between the financial markets of the East and the West, serving as a gateway for the flow of capital to and from the region, thus strengthening links to international capital markets and filling a void in the financial service infrastructure."

Waverider: Invisible Hand - maybe this is why!!!

auenboy

(02/17/2002; 21:50:30 MDT - Msg ID: 70285)

Gold Contest

****$324.10****
same reason (its where the dart landed)

Guided

(02/17/2002; 21:55:02 MDT - Msg ID: 70286)

Isn't that always the way Black Blade

When the forces are in motion even cleverly crafted devices designed to shade the truth wind up revealing it.
People are starting to wake up. The sleep mode on the alarm will keep running out and God only knows what's on the air next time around (please have mercy).
This attempt to hang a black cloud over gold possession by linking it to terrorism is weak. Freedom loving people the world over see right through it. I am confident GW and company do too. He has surrounded himself with some pretty fair minded people looks like to me. And that tends toward more fair play in the markets as opposed to less.
That brings to mind a question I have wondered on. How friendly are Rep. Ron Paul and the President? Anyone?
Thanks.......

Gandalf the White

(02/17/2002; 22:02:36 MDT - Msg ID: 70287)

The COMEX February '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST

with Notes for Sir Rock; Sir Henri; and The Invisible Hand !!UPDATE !!!

THE RULES (revisited) --
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of
(GC2G) on the date of Friday the 22th of February.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "stars" *****
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as *****$543.2*****
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, Feb. 21th.
6) A short "WHY" discussion paragraph should accompany your prognostication.
GOOD LUCK ALL !
----
UNAVAILABLE ( because of prior claim ) ENTRY !!

****$319.9**** Henri (02/17/02; 07:32:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 70239)
Please enter again, Sir Henri !!

****$320.20***Rock (02/17/02; 12:44:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 70261)
OOPS -- SORRY Sir Rock -- Tommy P beat you to it yesterday !
Please try one of these open slots ! <;-)

Rumors of Guesses which require Confirmation and discussion ! <;-)
****$ 8,752.0 **** The Invisible Hand (02/13/02; 20:31:45MT msg#: 69957
As this was posted before the contest started, do you wish to modify the rather large value ?
(MAYBE HIGHER ?) <;-)

===
PROGRESS REPORT !!
GUESSES in order of DECENDING Value

****$1,500.0**** LimitUp (02/14/02; 23:41:07MT msg#: 70090

****$929.0**** golden rule (02/14/02; 18:10:01MT msg#: 70049

****$448.4**** techbull.... (02/16/02; 22:30:45MT msg#: 70224

****$437.5**** Econoclast (02/14/02; 19:05:57MT msg#: 70063

****$379.0**** sstins (02/14/02; 14:34:25MT msg#: 70015

****$352.2**** goldquest (02/14/02; 13:52:51MT msg#: 70010

****$339.0**** rsjacksr (02/15/02; 20:15:47MT msg#: 70164

****$333.3**** Guided (02/16/02; 14:33:23MT msg#: 70206

****$329.1****.Clint H (2/15/02; 09:40:17MT msg#: 70111
****$329.0**** ROSEBUD99 (2/15/02; 09:32:21MT msg#: 70110

****$327.6**** RobotGuy (2/15/02; 08:09:30MT msg#: 70104

****$324.1**** auenboy (02/17/02; 19:31:09MT msg#: 70281

****$320.2**** Tommy P (02/16/02; 13:33:42MT msg#: 70201

****$319.9**** Pizz (02/14/02; 22:52:31MT msg#: 70084
****$319.8**** Shermag (02/17/02; 18:38:33MT msg#: 70278

****$319.2**** MidEastGold (2/15/02; 07:05:36MT msg#: 70102

****$318.2**** A Canadian (02/14/02; 14:36:41MT msg#: 70016

****$317.9**** wiley (02/14/02; 20:41:56MT msg#: 70076

****$316.3**** slingshot (02/14/02; 14:22:58MT msg#: 70012

****$315.3**** CoBra(too) (02/17/02; 17:57:15MT msg#: 70277

****$315.0**** neer-do-well (02/16/02; 21:14:28MT msg#: 70217

****$312.5**** darkhorse (02/14/02; 13:35:52MT msg#: 70009

****$312.1**** Voyager (2/15/02; 12:50:14MT msg#: 70138

****$310.0**** Boxman (02/15/02; 18:52:21MT msg#: 70160

****$309.7**** Hektor (02/16/02; 14:31:01MT msg#: 70205

****$309.5**** Siochain (02/14/02; 20:07:10MT msg#: 70070

****$308.7**** law (02/14/02; 22:17:01MT msg#: 70080

****$308.1**** goldenpeace (02/14/02; 13:22:48MT msg#: 70008

****$307.9**** Jon (2/15/02; 13:02:47MT msg#: 70141

****$307.7**** Waverider (02/14/02; 15:13:23MT msg#: 70021

****$306.1**** EagleOne (02/14/02; 14:27:04MT msg#: 70014

****$305.4**** Achilles (2/15/02; 05:25:21MT msg#: 70099

****$305.0**** Broken Tee (2/15/02; 14:32:54MT msg#: 70143

****$304.7**** Angel (02/17/02; 19:55:18MT msg#: 70282

****$304.4**** Solomon Weaver (02/16/02; 10:53:18MT msg#: 70190

****$304.2**** balzac (02/14/02; 17:34:42MT msg#: 70041

****$303.8**** uponroof (02/14/02; 14:24:30MT msg#: 70013

****$303.3**** AUtistic (02/17/02; 07:13:15MT msg#: 70236

****$303.1**** Operative (2/16/02; 03:47:42MT msg#: 70184

****$302.5**** Canuck Gold (02/14/02; 15:09:18MT msg#: 70019

****$302.3**** Mythical (02/14/02; 21:42:32MT msg#: 70079

****$301.9**** goldroadlx7 (02/16/02; 12:39:41MT msg#: 70195

****$301.0**** Christian (02/17/02; 06:47:49MT msg#: 70235

****$300.1**** VanRip (02/14/02; 18:25:51MT msg#: 70054

****$299.9**** Artie Farkle (2/15/02; 02:08:09MT msg#: 70097

****$299.0**** Carl H (02/14/02; 14:20:24MT msg#: 70011

****$298.7**** Truthcaster (02/14/02; 18:25:45MT msg#: 70053

****$298.4**** Topaz (02/14/02; 23:39:21MT msg#: 70089

****$297.9**** Knallgold (2/15/02; 07:47:09MT msg#: 70103

****$296.7**** The CoinGuy (02/14/02; 17:14:39MT msg#: 70037

****$293.0**** Flatlander (02/17/02; 10:39:58MT msg#: 70249

****$292.8**** Trapper (02/14/02; 19:44:13MT msg#: 70067

****$292.0**** Grubstaker (02/14/02; 22:50:18MT msg#: 70083
****$291.9**** silvercollector (02/15/02; 16:41:09MT msg#: 70149

****$290.0**** HOOSIER GOLDBUG (02/14/02; 15:50:12MT msg#: 70031
****$289.9**** miner49er (02/14/02; 15:30:03MT msg#: 70026

****$274.9**** Frosty (02/14/02; 18:55:58MT msg#: 70060

KTC

(02/17/2002; 22:25:55 MDT - Msg ID: 70288)

Feb. 22 Gold price

****** 313.5 ******

Been looking at the forum for more than 2 years, All you people help me keep the faith and stay with my coins and mining shares position.

John Doe

(02/17/2002; 23:06:16 MDT - Msg ID: 70289)

*****$290.4*****

Likely that the market tests prior resistance area for support. Further likely "interested parties" take the market down for contract rollover and options expiration, plus helps put a brave face on BOE's purported final expulsion hard asset reserves. Or, gold may run to WA highs, but I only get one guess. :o)

Mr Gresham

(02/17/2002; 23:10:33 MDT - Msg ID: 70290)

sourdough (02/17/02; 15:36:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 70270)

"They also may have the option of approaching the companies they have interest in, suggesting they hold back gold sales. If they suspect they can get gold to 400+ u.s., it could be quite profitable...

"If Jipangu had access to yen at 1%, they could lend to gold company at 2% to finance production. Holding gold produced from the market until a much higher price is achieved on any sale."

sourdough: Are you suggesting that "Matsufuji" might be "Hunt", pronounced in Japanese?

Black Blade

(02/18/2002; 00:08:24 MDT - Msg ID: 70291)

GATA on C-SPAN Now!

Just started on C-SPAN is Bill Murphy and friends. Funny thing is it wasn't listed on the schedule. Anyone who is awake - you may wish to tune in.

- Black Blade

Mr Gresham

(02/18/2002; 00:32:55 MDT - Msg ID: 70292)

John Exter: Fresh Air

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_02/taylor021902pv.htmlExter's view of the pyramid of debt reminds me of the post I wrote a year or two ago about the different concentric rings of "money", of different types and different stabilities.

Exter, though, ties the pyramid to different types of debt (each of which then constitutes a differing type of "money") .

"Exter understood that because fiat money is manufactured by way of debt, accelerating levels of debt would lead to growing levels of ill-liquidity until the system ultimately collapses. To Exter, Milton Friedman's notion, recently promoted in a "Wall Street Journal" article, that you can simply print enough money to inflate your way out of this ill-liquidity is nonsense. Why? Because in order to print money in a fiat currency system, you must issue more debt. But it is debt that is leading inexorably toward an ill-liquid and bankrupt monetary system."

"He took all of the assets in the system and arrayed them according to their liquidity. He found there were far more illiquid debtors in the system than liquid debtors. So he inverted the pyramid to reflect this and then placed it upon a base of gold.

"For example a liquid debtor would be the Federal Reserve itself, the currency notes they issue are a liability of the Fed. An illiquid debtor might be a corporation with a too highly leveraged balance sheet. John believed the pyramid could keep growing but only as long as the authorities were able to keep the debtors in the system liquid enough to service their debts. Once that point was passed the pyramid would cease growing and begin to shrink as the most illiquid debtors failed.

"Enron would today be an example of an illiquid debtor. Investors will react by moving down the pyramid to improve their liquidity. The most savvy of all investors will leave the pyramid altogether and move into the GOLD base. Today, that is what the Japanese people are doing."

Gresham: Now I imagine the different layers of debt and "money" liquidity to be something like theatre-goers trying not just to get out of a burning theatre, but out of a burning MULTIPLEX cinema. After they have made it out of one set of doors (leaving others behind, and helpless) they face a lobbyful of others who've escaped from _their_ movies. Perhaps the lobby opens into a shopping mall, into which the few lucky theatre lobby escapees would emerge, again into more panicked crowds attempting to crowd through the doors to the outside parking lots. Each layer necessarily narrows down the survivors, whether chosen by market forces or Federal Reserve bailout...

Tell me, don't you feel a sense of relief after a movie, when you finally get outside the doors into the cool, fresh air?

Black Blade

(02/18/2002; 00:34:18 MDT - Msg ID: 70293)

Preview: Wall Street to focus on accounting

http://markets.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3FQRTBTXC&live=true&tagid=ZZZGF39D20C⊂heading=US%20equities
Snippit:

With the earnings season all but over in the US, Wall Street investors will keep their attention focused on corporate accounting - a new, post-Enron pre-occupation that has proved a headache for companies in virtually all sectors. The trickle of companies confirming possible balance sheet restatements could increase this week.

Black Blade: I expect that there will be several more accounting scandals if investors and Wall Street continue to focus on suspicious corporate earnings statements.

Black Blade

(02/18/2002; 00:52:01 MDT - Msg ID: 70294)

Gold Price

The Gold price must hold above $300.00/oz. and establish a base. It appears that the POG simply can't hold above that level and is slowly breaking down. It appears as if there is a concerted effort to constrain the POG from rising above $300/oz. The US market is closed today and it will be easy for the UK market to push the POG further under water. We just may have to wait for a few weeks longer for the POG to find a support level before it can move to the upside.

Black Blade

(02/18/2002; 01:26:36 MDT - Msg ID: 70295)

Bank crisis hangs over U.S.-Japan talks

http://www.cnn.com/2002/BUSINESS/asia/02/17/japan.bizbush.biz/index.html

Snippit:

TOKYO, Japan (CNN) -- As U.S. President George W. Bush and Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi hold talks in Tokyo, regional analysts warn that a full-scale banking crisis could engulf Japan in the next six weeks. The grim prospect of banks collapsing under the weight of billions of dollars in bad loans is just one of a host of problems confronting Koizumi's administration, they say.

Black Blade: In 6 weeks the insolvent Japanese banking system will remove insurance coverage for savings accounts. Dubya and the Japanese PM Koizumi are talking about a bank bailout. Hang on to your wallets - I think that Dubya might want to give the Japanese bankers a "helping hand" with our cash.

The Invisible Hand

(02/18/2002; 01:46:17 MDT - Msg ID: 70296)

Confirmation and discussion ****$ 8,752****

I do hereby confirm my guess of ****$ 8,752 ****

Discussion: Although in an earlier post of the last fortnight I said that A/TG predicted an upward surge of 50 bucks a day, I think it would be more precise to say that the gentlemen argue the unexpected move towards $ 30,000 can occur at anytime. It must thus start once. Why not within the 'time limit' of the contest?

Mr Gresham

(02/18/2002; 02:23:54 MDT - Msg ID: 70297)

Invisible Hand -- You think I don't see?

So, with LimitUp at $1500, and you at $8752, I can see your clever strategem! Why, you've got everything (ah, let's see; my calculatore puhleez...) north of $5126, and you're letting him take the territory beneath it. That's quite a spread to occupy, you schemer!

(unless of course, we do GEOMETRIC averaging, and then it's, uh, only up to $3623 for him, and the rest for you. Even more clever, charlatan!)

I could bust up your little game, by taking say, $8751 -- yes, cringe! as you are undone -- but I won't. I'll leave you to your prize, ill-gotten as it may be, and let you live with it -- and your CONSCIENCE -- all your days. Keep it -- if you CAN!

Black Blade

(02/18/2002; 02:48:55 MDT - Msg ID: 70298)

Energy Exploration Spending Awaits Natural Gas Rally: Outlook

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APHCKcRadRW5lcmd5Snippit:

New York, Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. oil and natural gas executives, who slashed drilling budgets as prices dropped, say production may start to fall before the end of the year because they won't spend more until gas rallies by at least a third.

Natural gas prices would need to rise to at least $3 per million British thermal units from $2.20 now before most companies would consider boosting spending on drilling, according to executives who gathered at the New York conference.

Black Blade: So much for an economic recovery. Increased demand will result in higher energy prices that go straight to the corporate bottom line. The era of "Cheap Energy" that helped to fuel the economic boom times of the 1990's is over. I expect that this economic downturn will last a very long time.

Mr Gresham

(02/18/2002; 03:23:45 MDT - Msg ID: 70299)

Hall of Fame

http://www.usagold.com/hall/hallfame4.html#anchor705416Our last Hall of Fame entries...

Canuck

(02/18/2002; 05:05:13 MDT - Msg ID: 70300)

@ goldenboy

You mention 'Kanata executive homes'! You must be within a heartbeat of moi!

We must discuss this residential inflation issue.

Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD

(02/18/2002; 05:14:36 MDT - Msg ID: 70301)

Establish a relationship today so that you may be well-prepared to act as conditions warrant

http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html

Operative

(02/18/2002; 05:31:46 MDT - Msg ID: 70302)

Globalizing half of America

http://www.discerningtoday.org/globalizing_america.htmThink "They" cant/wont ask for your PM's one day??
They are already taking a host of wealth, yours and future generations, in real estate. A thought provoking read on a slow day.

uponroof

(02/18/2002; 05:40:05 MDT - Msg ID: 70303)

Bush having his way with words again

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020218/business_bush_japan_gaffe_dc_1.htmlTOKYO (Reuters) - President Bush's wayward way with words sent financial markets wobbling Monday when he mixed up deflation and devaluation.

Traders couldn't believe their ears when Bush relayed to a news conference that Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, outlining his plans to revive Japan's economy, had placed equal emphasis in their talks on banks' non-performing loans, ``the devaluation issue'' and regulatory reform.
********

Seems Mr. Bush is making Belgians argument regarding paper 'pep' talks. Is Bush, the perfect man for the delicate job of talking currencies into place? Forget about translation from English to Japanese, the real barrier is translating what's rolling around in Bush's head into English. Meanwhile the Japanese are going cross eyed listening to their monitors, with nervous fingers on the sell button. Let's hope Mr Bush remains in Japan indefinitely during which time he offers in depth discussion on gold.

CoBra(too)

(02/18/2002; 05:56:48 MDT - Msg ID: 70304)

Globe says Barrick trims hedge plans for 2002

Ha!

Barrick Gold Corp ABX
Shares issued 396,002,057 Feb 15 close $29.35
Mon 18 Feb 2002 In the News
The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday, Feb. 16, edition that Barrick
Gold plans to make significant changes to its hedging strategy this year.
The Globe's Allan Robinson writes that Barrick says beginning this year
one-half of its annual production will be sold on the spot market, while
the rest will take advantage of the higher prices obtained by its gold
hedging strategies. The yellow metal miner says lower interest rates have
made hedging less profitable and it has little need for the ready cash the
hedging strategy offers. Barrick has been selling all of its gold
production into the hedge program, which has contributed $1.7-billion
(U.S.) more in revenue during the past five years than it would have
generated selling at market prices. Half of Barrick's production will be
sold this year at $365 (U.S.) an ounce with the balance at the market
price. Gold is trading around $300 (U.S.) an ounce. Barrick sold its gold
at $341 (U.S.) an ounce during 2001, a premium of $70 (U.S.) an ounce over
the average spot price of $271 (U.S.). Every $25-(U.S.)-an-ounce increase
in the price of gold causes Barrick's profit to increase by $70-million
(U.S.) or 13 U.S. cents a share.
(c) Copyright 2002 Canjex Publishing Ltd. http://www.stockwatch.com

goldenboy

(02/18/2002; 07:15:55 MDT - Msg ID: 70305)

Mr. Gresham re: Exter & Debt Pyramid & The Big Bang Theory

Keeping the debtors "liquid or solvent" is quite possible in the short run. I agree that ultimately all the reinsurance schemes must end and that the amplitude increase in the cycles increases the chance of a financial accident, but like my Dad once said, you cannot underestimate their ability to kind of keep the whole thing going. He believes in the 2 pile theory; one on inflationary assets; the other in deflationary; perhaps varying the percentage with the times, but not getting so far over to one side or the other that you get whipsawed.
Whipsawing is important to the tax people, they get windfall gains from inflation and from the excessive interest rates required to eliminate it.
The people in the know have to vary the game every now and then to maximize their take.
What is at issue for most of us is whether we have the 'Big Bang" a la Another/FOA or a slower, gentler cycle of debt reduction, no, make that debt minimiztion as some of our friends will tell us that debt must always be repaid. Sure, but with cheaper $ and substitute debt.
If the system were honest, worried savers would at some point in the cycle be able to sucessfully demand more interest for their "scarce" capital, made scarce partly due to loan loss - destruction of capital.
However, the guv through the fed or issuance of ever cheaper bonds can flood the market with "liquidity" at will; destroying savers ability to demand more interest.
This is what I believe is happening and will happen until some sort of balance (albeit unhealthy) is restored.
The difference in this round is that wages will fall further behind and price inflation in foreign produced goods might not be as high as the 70`s round.
A simple analogy: Grandma`s house is basically all she owns and it is 80% mortgaged; the wolf is at the door and then inflation and lower rates to the rescue. Grandma`s payments are halved; she does a refi and gets enough to buy a trailer in Florida, eat at McDonalds etc.,thus "stimulating" the economy.
The collapse that we fear may not happen as quickly as we fear.

Interstate

(02/18/2002; 07:21:38 MDT - Msg ID: 70306)

Au and Ag as natural resources

A while back I mentioned that my wife had said that, as a natural resource, silver is more scarce than gold. She has just returned from her conference and I asked her about it. She did not go to some "dusty textbook" or confer with her contemporaries. Instead, as she was walking into the family room, she said, "My gosh! The ocean is full of gold. We just haven't figured out a cost effective way to get it. Do we have to watch "curling"? So, that was the end of the subject. Since I have very, very little knowledge of geology, I cannot confirm nor deny her answer. But we do have physical Au and Ag.

Later, Interstate

Carl H

(02/18/2002; 08:26:16 MDT - Msg ID: 70307)

More Inflation Control

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20020218/bs_nm/food_farmbill_dc_1&cid=580Glad I'm Not a Farmer. It's a tough business to start witha and goverment subsidizing of the high cost producers makes it even worse.

goldquest

(02/18/2002; 08:34:17 MDT - Msg ID: 70308)

Dow 5000 Gold 500

http://www.rumormillnews.net/cgi-bw/config.pl?read=17581It would be nice to see $500 gold this week!

goldquest

(02/18/2002; 08:40:14 MDT - Msg ID: 70309)

Sorry, I'll try again

http://www.rumormillnews.net/cgi-bin/config.pl?read=17581Hope this works

Gimli_

(02/18/2002; 08:59:47 MDT - Msg ID: 70310)

U.S. Preparing to Attack Iraq

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20020218/wl_nm/attack_iraq_usa_dcFWIW: Over the weekend, a friend in the reserves told me that a massive deep reactivation is presently underway--something big will be ready to happen within weeks....

-----------
Iraqi Papers: U.S. Preparing to Attack Iraq
Mon Feb 18, 8:16 AM ET
By Hassan Hafidh

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraqi newspapers said on Monday the United States was launching a psychological war on Iraq in preparation for military strikes on the country.

Babel, the newspaper of President Saddam Hussein (news - web sites)'s eldest son Uday, said that as part of the "psychological war against our country" the United States "concentrates on reiterating its aggressive intentions on Iraq to prepare peoples minds to accept this."

It said the U.S. administration was preparing for military action against Iraq after the failure of its policy to "dismantle Iraq and its territorial integrity" -- a reference to the 1991 Gulf war over Iraq's invasion of Kuwait...........

sector

(02/18/2002; 09:12:23 MDT - Msg ID: 70311)

@uponroof...The "Devaluation Thing"...an Update

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT33MBO5UXC&live=true&tagid=IXLI0L9Z1BCBush 'devaluation' gaffe sends yen lower
By Nerma Jelacic in London
Published: February 18 2002 10:25 | Last Updated: February 18 2002 12:59

A short wave of panic took over the forex trading floors on Monday sending the yen lower after George W Bush, the US president, said he had discussed the devaluation of the Japanese currency with Junichiro Koizumi, Japan's prime minister.

Speaking at the press conference after his first meeting with the Japanese prime minister, Mr Bush said: "He [Koizumi] said I want to make it very clear to you exactly what I intend to do and he talked about non-performing loans, the devaluation issue and regulatory reform and he placed equal emphasis on all three."
+++++++++++++++++
The nervous nellies in Japan thought the Prez was talking about THIER currency...he was talking about devaluing OURS...as yours truly has posited ffor months.

nickel62

(02/18/2002; 09:17:51 MDT - Msg ID: 70312)

Very Interesting commentary!!!!

Media Blackout On Looming Economic Crash

Just as it was in the days of Noah, so shall it be in the days of the Son of man. People were eating, drinking, they married wives, they were given in marriage, up to the day Noah entered the ark. Then the flood came and destroyed them all. It was the same in the days of Lot; People were eating and drinking, buying and selling, planting and building; But the same day that Lot went out of Sodom it rained fire and brimstone from heaven, and destroyed them all. Even thus shall it be in the day when the Son of man is revealed. - Luke 17:26-30

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), in a report issued on June 5 (2000), and in a major international press conference accompanying the release of the report at its headquarters in Basel, Switzerland the same day, confirmed what Lyndon LaRouche has been warning about for years: that a global financial crash is right around the corner.

While that assessment has been given banner headlines throughout Europe, the warning has been blacked out of the North American press. "One point on which virtually everyone would agree is that the current rate of expansion of domestic demand in the United States is unsustainable and potentially inflationary," the BIS stated in its 70th Annual Report. The report goes on to say that "it could be argued that the sooner the bubble deflates, the better."

In remarks at the BIS Annual Meeting the same day, BIS President Urban Baeckstroam threw cold water on the assertions by the U.S. President's Working Group on Financial Markets (a.k.a. the Plunge Protection Group) that the U.S. economy was headed for a "soft landing."

"We have witnessed too many crises in the last decade not to know that market confidence can shift suddenly," Baeckstrom said. "A soft landing is by no means assured."

He also warned of the rising levels of household and corporate debt in the United States, and the growing dependence of the United States upon foreign goods and money-flows. "Household and corporate balance sheets may look healthy when asset prices are stable or increasing, but what will they look like if prices fall?" he asked.

To underscore the BIS's warnings, the German economic daily Handelsblatt, in a commentary by Klaus Engelen on June 6 entitled "Dangerous Dynamic on Financial Markets," noted that while the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development had proven records of not seeing financial crises in advance, the BIS had warned of instability in the emerging markets before the Mexican and Asian crises erupted. However, Engelen said, "all such earlier warnings from Basel had been ignored by euphoric markets." Market participants are still not paying sufficient attention to the "emphatic warnings of the BIS concerning ever higher financial asset prices and the unsustainable foreign trade imbalances, in particular the U.S. current account deficit which is running out of control." Engelen said that the issue was not one of how big the chances were of a soft landing, but rather whether there is any chance at all to prevent a hard landing.

The blunt warnings reflect the realization by the BIS that the current global financial and monetary system is unsustainable, and that major changes are required to keep the system together. Such warnings, as far as they go, are valid, and represent a better understanding of the state of the world than anything flowing out of official Washington, but they still fall far short of reality.

Hard Landing, or Mid-Air Explosion?

The whole debate about "soft landing" versus "hard landing" is a fraud. The idea behind the soft landing is that the U.S. economy is growing so fast, that the pace of growth is unsustainable and might trigger inflation. Therefore, to slow the pace of growth and head off potential inflation, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has been raising interest rates. By gently putting the brakes on the economy.

The Fed's hope to bring the economy down from its lofty heights to a safe and soft landing. The hard-landing crowd likewise assumes that the plane will land, but perhaps with significant damage. What is absent from this controlled discussion is a third possibility, that of a mid-air explosion.

In citing "the record U.S. current account deficit," the BIS pointed squarely to the fact that the U.S. economy is being subsidized by the rest of the world. The current account balance, which hit a record $100 billion deficit for the fourth quarter of 1999, represents the extent to which the U.S. economy is dependent upon foreign goods and investments. The deficit reflects both the inadequacy of U.S. goods-production to meet the needs of the nation's population, and the extent to which foreign funds have flooded into the country to participate in the U.S. market bubble and purchase other U.S. assets. Were this inflow to be interrupted or reversed, by a stock market crash or a sharp decline in the value of the dollar, the "soaring" U.S. economy would be lucky to make it to the ground in one piece.

Controlled Burn

One aspect of the effort to bring the U.S. economy in for a soft landing, is the attempt to deflate the overblown U.S. stock market without triggering an investor panic. Make the change gradually enough, and the public will stay in the market even as it declines, a variation of the frog-in-the-pot theory. If one heats the water slowly enough, the frog will stay in the pot until it boils.

But a controlled and limited deflation of a bubble is a tricky operation, one which can easily get out of hand and trigger the very panic one is trying to prevent.

An analogy for the danger is the fire set by the U.S. National Park Service on May 4 in the Bandelier National Monument in New Mexico. The fire, intentionally set as a "controlled burn" to burn brush and dried timber on 1,000 acres in order to reduce the danger of a wildfire, rapidly went completely out of control, triggering the very wildfire it was designed to prevent. The result was the immolation of some 48,000 acres, the destruction of more than 200 homes and apartment buildings in the nearby town of Los Alamos, and the destruction of parts of the Los Alamos National Laboratory.

The 33% drop in the Nasdaq from mid-March to mid-April, including a 25% drop in just the week of April10, shows all the hallmarks of a controlled burn. The drop was preceded by an international media propaganda campaign, beginning in Europe and then spreading to the United States, about the unsustainable nature of the "Internet bubble" and the necessity of a "correction." One key aspect of the propaganda campaign was to prepare the public psychologically for the sharp drop, to keep "investors" from panicking and fleeing the market. That aspect of the campaign was successful, as no panic occurred; the market stabilized, at least in the short-term, at a lower level, without an immediate collapse.

That does not mean, however, that no damage was done. The sharp drop in tech stocks generated serious losses for many investors, those not warned of the central bankers' plans. Hardest hit were those who had hitched their futures to the Internet, and those playing with borrowed money. Some $2.2 trillion in value (albeit virtual, rather than real) evaporated between March 10, when the value of all stocks traded on the Nasdaq peaked at $6.7 trillion, and April 14, when it dropped to $4.5 trillion. Many of the investors who got wiped out were playing with borrowed money, as indicated by the sharp drop in margin debt outstanding, by clients of the brokers which belong to the New York Stock Exchange. After rising 55% to $279 billion from September 1999 through March 2000, margin debt fell by $27 billion--nearly10%--during April, ending the month at $252 billion. Most of that reduction was due to investors getting hit with margin calls, and having to sell stock--and their most valuable stock at that--in order to pay their debts.

The impact of such market declines goes well beyond the markets themselves. Many people working in the tech sector have taken stock options in lieu of higher salaries, betting that the money made from rising stock prices will more than offset the lower wages. While this gamble has made many millionaires in a rising market, it will have the reverse effect in a declining one. Many would-be stock-option millionaires are under water, the option prices on their stock higher than the current market prices, rendering their options worthless. Some of these have borrowed heavily against that planned stock-option money; in California's Santa Clara County, the home of Silicon Valley, for example, the median price of a single-family home was $577,820 in April, up 45% in one year; nationally, the median price for a single-family home was $136,700, suggesting hard times ahead for the Silicon Valley real estate market, as well as for other high-tech centers such as Northern Virginia and Austin, Texas. The commercial real estate market will also suffer from the shakeout on the tech sector, since all the new Internet companies required lots of office space, the demand sharply increasing rents in many areas.

The danger is also great in New York City which, according to a study by the New York Fed, is more dependent than ever upon Wall Street. The July 1999 study by the bank's Jason Bram and James Orr, shows that the securities sector generated 19% of the city's earnings in 1998, nearly double its contribution in 1987 and more than four times higher than in 1969. The securities sector itself employed 4.5% of the city's workforce in 1998, and given the U.S. Department of Commerce's estimate that each job on Wall Street generates two additional jobs in other sectors, Wall Street is directly or indirectly responsible for roughly 14% of the total employment in New York City.

In fact, according to economist James Parrott, Wall Street workers accounted for an astonishing 97% of the increase in the city's payrolls between 1990 and 1997.

There is an unexpected bright spot in the city's economy, according to the Fed study, and that is manufacturing, or rather the lack thereof. The manufacturing sector accounted for nearly half of the city's job losses and more than two-thirds of the decline in real earnings during the city's slump in the early 1970s, and was "a severe drag" on the local economy during the 1989-92 recession, as well. Today, manufacturing accounts for just 6% of local earnings, compared to 20% in 1969. "Because its importance to the city's economy has diminished significantly, another decline in the manufacturing sector would likely put far less pressure on the local economy than was true in previous downturns," bubbleheads Bram and Orr concluded, showing that the Fed doesn't have a clue when it comes to physical economy.

Reorganization and Manipulation

Coincident with the newly emerging bear market is a reorganization of certain financial warfare operations, particularly the large hedge funds. Julian Robertson's Tiger Management group of hedge funds, which once had $23 billion under management and controlled many times that through leverage, has closed down, said to be a victim of Robertson's bet that the Old Economy would prevail over the New. The impression is given that Robertson was an old-style investor who just didn't understand the new era, when in fact Robertson was one of the bloodiest speculators on the planet. Stanley Shopkorn, the man who, as head trader at Salomon Brothers, is credited with doing much to prevent the Black Monday Crash of 1987 from melting down the
financial system, and is now an investment guru with the $10 billion Moore Capital hedge fund group, is taking a sabbatical this summer to cruise the Mediterranean.

Then there's the case of drug-legalizer George Soros and his Soros Fund Management, at one time worth $22 billion. After the March-April slide of the Nasdaq, Soros announced he was downsizing his operation into a more conservative style of investing. With the change came the resignations of his two top fund managers, Stanley Druckenmiller and Nicholas Roditi, and the departures of chief financial officer Peter Streinger and chief executive Duncan Hennes.

Nominally, the reorganization at Soros Fund Management comes as a result of sharp losses on the tech stocks in the wake of the April-May Nasdaq slide, but there are indications that the truth runs deeper. Last autumn, with his funds down slightly for the year, Soros made a sharp push into technology stocks, buying enough to end the year up 35%. Between mid-October and mid-March the Nasdaq Composite Index nearly doubled, rising an unprecedented 88%. Some Wall Street observers have attributed a significant portion of that rise to Soros's heavy buying.

The timing between the controlled burn of the Nasdaq and the announcement of the reorganization of the Soros funds, suggests the possibility that Soros also played a role in setting that particular fire.

The idea of an orchestrated run-up and take-down in this highly manipulated environment is nothing new. By running up the Nasdaq at the end of the year, large profits could be gained to offset losses -particularly hidden losses- from the spring and summer turmoil. Once in the new year, the insiders could sell off into a rising market, taking one last profit fling while sticking the suckers with the looming losses. Even investors in the Soros funds, which were down 22% for the year as of the end of April, could have covered their losses with offsetting bets.

Hyperinflation

Beginning with the global financial crisis which broke out in Asia in the summer of 1997, and continuing through the subsequent "Russian," "Long Term Capital Management," "Brazilian," "Tiger," and other, better-hidden events, the central bankers have responded to each crisis with what Soros himself called "a wall of money." Throwing money at problems is nothing new for the bankers, as the sharp growth in the U.S. money supply since 1992 indicates. But as the money flows in, the instability grows and the crises come ever faster and larger. That is because the increased money for the bubble comes by further cannibalizing the physical economy, heaping ever more financial claims on an economy whose ability to pay those claims is shrinking.

The result is a self-accelerating, leveraged turbulence which, according to LaRouche, has reached the point where the monetary aggregates are now growing faster than the financial aggregates. In such a period, the money will begin to lose value faster than it can plug the holes, leading to a Weimar-style hyperinflation, where the value of money itself goes into a free-fall.

Another aspect of this nascent hyperinflation is the surge in commodity prices in the recent period, typified by the rise in the price of oil. One of the factors in this is the accelerating level of mergers in the economy. Due to the extraordinary levels of debt taken on in these mergers, the companies are forced to raise prices in order to show a profit. Thus, the attempt to outpace the collapse via consolidation, actually brings closer the demise.

While the warnings issued by the BIS have some validity, the solutions it puts forward do not. The BIS does not wish to kill this global financial parasite - which would be tantamount to suicide - but merely to exert tighter control over its growth, to avoid killing its host. The BIS is, as its report shows, in favor of the continued deregulation and globalization of financial markets, taking ever more control out of the hands of nation-states and giving it to the oligarchic forces which control the financial system and the BIS itself. It is not the process, but the perceived excess, which the BIS deplores.

Thus, the BIS, like the speculators it is trying to curb, is doomed by its inability to break free of its own failed axioms. They are all actors on a stage, not controlling the action, but being controlled by it, in a looming tragedy of historic proportion. (Revelation 6:6, Matthew 24:37-40)

01
..

ROSEBUD99

(02/18/2002; 09:28:07 MDT - Msg ID: 70313)

RE: Interstate, gold in the oceans

What she said seems to be right. Found a few references to a bacteria that can get gold from ocean water. Need some good genetic engineering to speed up the process.
http://www.abc.net.au/science/k2/trek/4wd/Over44.htm
http://www.science-frontiers.com/sf085/sf085g10.htm

Carl H

(02/18/2002; 09:30:15 MDT - Msg ID: 70314)

Yen Devaluation

Day before yesterday I posted:

--------------------------------------------------------
So W. is going to Japan. I was just pondering what he will convince the Japanese to do about the Gold "situation".

Here are possiblities that I came up with:

1. Nothing
2. Tax all gold transactions
3. Outlaw Gold
4. Weaken the Yen
5. Back off on the bank account insurance cap legislation
6. Dump their gold reserves on the market. As of 1/2001 they had 764 tons.
-----------------------------------------------------------

From the previous post, it looks like #4 is being considered. I agree with Solomon Weaver that we will probably also see #5 before everything is said and done.

Cavan Man

(02/18/2002; 11:05:49 MDT - Msg ID: 70315)

Bonner's "Daily Reckoning"....

*** "Your [J.P. Morgan] piece inspired me to look at
their Q1, 2001, 10Q and their 2000 annual report on their
homepage," writes a Daily Reckoning reader.

"As of September 30, 2001, their balance sheet shows
Total Stockholders Equity being $42,735 million, of which
$14,683 million is "Goodwill and Other Intangibles" and
$7,268 million is "Premises and Equipment." If we
discount Premises and Equipment by 50% and add the result
to the $14,683 of Goodwill and other Intangibles, there
are $18,317 of worthless assets, leaving an actual
stockholder value of $24,418 million ($24.4 billion).

"Andrew Collins, banking analyst for U.S. Bancorp Piper
Jaffray, was quoted in a 12-18-01 Forbes article that he
estimated non-performing loans at $3.15 Billion. If we
add another $1 billion for Tyco, that brings the total
non-performing loans to $4.15 billion. Subtracting that
from stockholder's equity nets their assets to about $20
billion in assets.

"Forgetting JPM's total derivative book of $29+ trillion
for the moment, JPM holds "Trading Assets" (long
positions) and "Trading Liabilities" (short positions)
which are the derivative positions that they are trading
for a profit or loss for their own account. They are long
$165 billion and short $58 billion for a total of $223
billion dollars notional value, not include their hedging
operations.

"With greatly increased volatility in the bond market
since September, and with a short term gold derivative
book of $28.5 Billion, it is easy to see that
'stockholder's equity' might be a fleeting memory."

Gandalf the White

(02/18/2002; 11:08:24 MDT - Msg ID: 70316)

The COMEX February '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST

With HOUSEKEEPING Notes for Sir's Rock and Henri !!!!!!!!!!!!The following "GUESSES" were UNAVAILABLE ( because of prior claim ), and need to be adjusted either up or down !!
---

****$320.20***Rock (02/17/02; 12:44:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 70261)
OOPS -- SORRY Sir Rock -- Tommy P beat you to it yesterday !

****$319.9**** Henri (02/17/02; 07:32:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 70239)
Please enter again, Sir Henri !!
---
Please try one of these open slots ! <;-)
###################################################

UPDATE !!!

THE RULES (revisited) --
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of
(GC2G) on the date of Friday the 22th of February.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "stars" *****
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as *****$543.2*****
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, Feb. 21th.
6) A short "WHY" discussion paragraph should accompany your prognostication.
GOOD LUCK ALL !

===
PROGRESS REPORT !!
GUESSES in order of DECENDING Value

****$8,752.0**** The Invisible Hand (2/18/02; 01:46:17MT msg#: 70296)

****$1,500.0**** LimitUp (02/14/02; 23:41:07MT msg#: 70090

****$929.0**** golden rule (02/14/02; 18:10:01MT msg#: 70049

****$448.4**** techbull.... (02/16/02; 22:30:45MT msg#: 70224

****$437.5**** Econoclast (02/14/02; 19:05:57MT msg#: 70063

****$379.0**** sstins (02/14/02; 14:34:25MT msg#: 70015

****$352.2**** goldquest (02/14/02; 13:52:51MT msg#: 70010

****$339.0**** rsjacksr (02/15/02; 20:15:47MT msg#: 70164

****$333.3**** Guided (02/16/02; 14:33:23MT msg#: 70206

****$329.1****.Clint H (2/15/02; 09:40:17MT msg#: 70111
****$329.0**** ROSEBUD99 (2/15/02; 09:32:21MT msg#: 70110

****$327.6**** RobotGuy (2/15/02; 08:09:30MT msg#: 70104

****$324.1**** auenboy (02/17/02; 19:31:09MT msg#: 70281

****$320.2**** Tommy P (02/16/02; 13:33:42MT msg#: 70201

****$319.9**** Pizz (02/14/02; 22:52:31MT msg#: 70084
****$319.8**** Shermag (02/17/02; 18:38:33MT msg#: 70278

****$319.2**** MidEastGold (2/15/02; 07:05:36MT msg#: 70102

****$318.2**** A Canadian (02/14/02; 14:36:41MT msg#: 70016

****$317.9**** wiley (02/14/02; 20:41:56MT msg#: 70076

****$316.3**** slingshot (02/14/02; 14:22:58MT msg#: 70012

****$315.3**** CoBra(too) (02/17/02; 17:57:15MT msg#: 70277

****$315.0**** neer-do-well (02/16/02; 21:14:28MT msg#: 70217

****$313.5**** KTC (02/17/02; 22:25:55MT msg#: 70288)

****$312.5**** darkhorse (02/14/02; 13:35:52MT msg#: 70009

****$312.1**** Voyager (2/15/02; 12:50:14MT msg#: 70138

****$310.0**** Boxman (02/15/02; 18:52:21MT msg#: 70160

****$309.7**** Hektor (02/16/02; 14:31:01MT msg#: 70205

****$309.5**** Siochain (02/14/02; 20:07:10MT msg#: 70070

****$308.7**** law (02/14/02; 22:17:01MT msg#: 70080

****$308.1**** goldenpeace (02/14/02; 13:22:48MT msg#: 70008

****$307.9**** Jon (2/15/02; 13:02:47MT msg#: 70141

****$307.7**** Waverider (02/14/02; 15:13:23MT msg#: 70021

****$306.1**** EagleOne (02/14/02; 14:27:04MT msg#: 70014

****$305.4**** Achilles (2/15/02; 05:25:21MT msg#: 70099

****$305.0**** Broken Tee (2/15/02; 14:32:54MT msg#: 70143

****$304.7**** Angel (02/17/02; 19:55:18MT msg#: 70282

****$304.4**** Solomon Weaver (02/16/02; 10:53:18MT msg#: 70190

****$304.2**** balzac (02/14/02; 17:34:42MT msg#: 70041

****$303.8**** uponroof (02/14/02; 14:24:30MT msg#: 70013

****$303.3**** AUtistic (02/17/02; 07:13:15MT msg#: 70236

****$303.1**** Operative (2/16/02; 03:47:42MT msg#: 70184

****$302.5**** Canuck Gold (02/14/02; 15:09:18MT msg#: 70019

****$302.3**** Mythical (02/14/02; 21:42:32MT msg#: 70079

****$301.9**** goldroadlx7 (02/16/02; 12:39:41MT msg#: 70195

****$301.0**** Christian (02/17/02; 06:47:49MT msg#: 70235

****$300.1**** VanRip (02/14/02; 18:25:51MT msg#: 70054

****$299.9**** Artie Farkle (2/15/02; 02:08:09MT msg#: 70097

****$299.0**** Carl H (02/14/02; 14:20:24MT msg#: 70011

****$298.7**** Truthcaster (02/14/02; 18:25:45MT msg#: 70053

****$298.4**** Topaz (02/14/02; 23:39:21MT msg#: 70089

****$297.9**** Knallgold (2/15/02; 07:47:09MT msg#: 70103

****$296.7**** The CoinGuy (02/14/02; 17:14:39MT msg#: 70037

****$293.0**** Flatlander (02/17/02; 10:39:58MT msg#: 70249

****$292.8**** Trapper (02/14/02; 19:44:13MT msg#: 70067

****$292.0**** Grubstaker (02/14/02; 22:50:18MT msg#: 70083
****$291.9**** silvercollector (02/15/02; 16:41:09MT msg#: 70149

****$290.4**** John Doe (02/17/02; 23:06:16MT msg#: 70289)

****$290.0**** HOOSIER GOLDBUG (02/14/02; 15:50:12MT msg#: 70031
****$289.9**** miner49er (02/14/02; 15:30:03MT msg#: 70026

****$274.9**** Frosty (02/14/02; 18:55:58MT msg#: 70060

###############
Come on you LURKERS -- The water is fine, JUMP IN !!
Get a ID Number from USAGOLD and post a "GUESS". That FREE Lucky French ANGEL is awaiting for the best prognostication.
Don't wait too long, like some of the "Planners".
<;-)

The Stranger

(02/18/2002; 11:19:03 MDT - Msg ID: 70317)

What Was That You Said?

nickel62 - You probably weren't trying for a laugh, so I hope you'll forgive me. I just couldn't help myself when I read:

"The Bank for International Settlements... confirmed what Lyndon LaRouche has been warning about for years: that a global financial crash is right around the corner."

Joepmbull

(02/18/2002; 11:39:21 MDT - Msg ID: 70318)

The winning guess

*****304.5*****

kludge

(02/18/2002; 13:15:21 MDT - Msg ID: 70319)

(No Subject)

*****290.9*****

Why? Because that's what the voices tell me...

R Powell

(02/18/2002; 13:19:28 MDT - Msg ID: 70320)

Contest Entry

******** $5,126******** Reasoning: A careful reading of the entrails of a plump Rhode Island Red chicken foretold a price of $8,752 (American currency). Can you imagine my feeling of consternation at seeing that Invisible Hand had already posted this exact number!
However, a second chicken reading revealed Limit Up's guess of $1500 even, again $American. I was puzzled by the great discrepancy between these two until I chanced upon fresh roadkill just before daylight during the dark of the moon. A detailed reading, by flashlight, yielded a striking disclosure- $5,126. Striking, that is, now that Mr Gresham has unlocked the secret importance of this $5,126.
Since there is gold at stake here, I also used my one and only free call to the psychic hotline. Yes, yes! the answer given was ***$5,126***.
Rich

TownCrier

(02/18/2002; 14:26:58 MDT - Msg ID: 70321)

Be sure to check out this week's WGC market commentary, and scroll down for charts while there

http://www.usagold.com/wgc.htmlAt the URL given above, you'll see:

...physical demand in Japan remains vibrant...

...Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society...in response to market demand...ties in with local international convention

...Mongolian Foreign Investment and Foreign Trade Agency...abolition of the 15% VAT on gold exports...

...South African Minister of Mines and Energy outlined some of the changes that have been made to the Draft Minerals and Petroleum Resources Development Bill...

...London Bullion Market Association...clearing figures...decrease between December and January for the fifth consecutive year...a daily average of 16.3M ounces (507 tonnes). ...total tonnage cleared for the month of just over 11,000t, equivalent to approximately 50 times world mine production.

turkey hunter

(02/18/2002; 15:05:26 MDT - Msg ID: 70322)

Price guessing contest. *******$294.50*************

Gold will go up in a month or so when more chaos hits the streets.

TownCrier

(02/18/2002; 15:33:40 MDT - Msg ID: 70323)

Situation heats up for international editor Holger Jensen in Gaza Strip, photographer George Kochaniec wounded

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Jensen/20020212.htmlMany of you have gotten to know George and his work while on this assignment in the Middle-east with Holger Jensen. Every good reporter seeks to tell the news, and dreads the day he *becomes* the news. This, however, was to be Kochaniec's day in the spotlight.

Jensen writes:

---------(Feb 12) GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip -- The attack began Monday as I was interviewing Khalil Abu Shammala of the Al-Adameer human rights group in his Gaza office. Only three blocks away, laser-guided missiles fired by Israeli F-16 jets began slamming into a Palestinian security compound in the heart of downtown Gaza City.

...More than 70 people were taken to Shifa Hospital after Monday's attack, including Kochaniec, who was treated for his wounds for several hours and later released. While doctors worked on Kochaniec's wounds, Dr. Hasanein Muaeh, director of emergency medicine beseeched me to "tell America that American bombs have wounded an American."

What about all the Palestinian wounded, I ask.

"No one cares when Palestinians are wounded," he said. "Maybe they will care if an American is hurt."-------------

(click the URL for the full account, and for access to the Jensen archive)

There appears to be no limit in sight for this madness. Each act of reprisal by one side merely provokes the other in a never-ending cycle of violence and retaliation. As momentum builds, can despair by either side be far behind? An unpredictable and fearsome beast is the man who lives without hope.

Like the ripples from a pebble cast into still waters, in a global economy, developments half-a-world-away can impact your financial security.

R.

Gandalf the White

(02/18/2002; 15:34:55 MDT - Msg ID: 70324)

OK Goldfly !! Make your GUESS and then let SPIKE out !!!

The next twenty-four hours will be "interesting" !
<;-)

Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD

(02/18/2002; 15:53:26 MDT - Msg ID: 70325)

Yes, it's a financial holiday, but you can still lock in an order online while the staff are home with family grilling burgers

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

U.S. Liberty $10 Eagle
$10 Liberty

A "Premium" Opportunity

Call Centennial for details, or order online.
1-800-869-5115

pdeep

(02/18/2002; 16:25:02 MDT - Msg ID: 70326)

Contest

****$313.40**** Simply an average. 50+ minds better than one. I beg your forbearance for having removed the most expansive estimates, and do not mean that as a slur on those more optimistic ladies and gents. While I subscribe to a much higher long term price, I think the time frame may be a bit too short. Though I suspect if those estimates are even partly met, forbearance will be easy to come by, no?

coco

(02/18/2002; 16:29:13 MDT - Msg ID: 70327)

Competition Entry ******** $295.60 ********

Coco - Australia
I don't believe the price of gold will escalate until silver makes a substantial run up as there is still plenty of usuable gold in the world but very limited supplies of silver.

Rock

(02/18/2002; 16:33:35 MDT - Msg ID: 70328)

new contest number

##### contest $320.40

i cant wait until the markets open tomorrow and the next day and the next... in these crazy times anything is possible on any given day! who can you trust? we can't trust the politicians, we can't trust some of the big corporations as we found out recently, we cant trust the accounting firms and their practices and we cant even trust the judges of the olympics! theres corruption on every level! thats why its wise to go physical. no matter who drops the ball (because its going to be dropped) you'll be safe with physical precious metals.

TownCrier

(02/18/2002; 16:42:33 MDT - Msg ID: 70329)

Having dug this up recently to send to a friend...

http://www.usagold.com/goldenchalkboard/gc_turkey.htmlI thought you might like to have another look in case you missed it in previous discussion.

What should strike you from the charts is this: In April 2000, as gold hit a "plateau" above 160 million lira, sad was the Turk who sat on the sidelines, thinking he'd missed the boat.

Sadder still was the Turk who, believing he'd missed the boat, failed to diversify into gold even at that "late" juncture. As the second chart shows, after a brief pause, gold then promptly climbed above 400 million lira per ounce.

I've stressed it countless times before, and I'll do so again. The world's largest gold buyers are buying their metal in local currencies where the much vaunted "psychological threshold" of $300 per ounce means precisely nothing. One billion Indians, to make a fine counter-example, are motivated by life in their own world where the benchmark is rupees per 10 grams. Today being 4650 rupees for that quantity.

The lesson here is that the physical realities of the market may come to bear on the street price (that is, "derivative spot" plus premium) regardless of whether the psychological derivative price of futures and functioning fractional banking is above or below some conveniently round American number.

R.

Black Blade

(02/18/2002; 17:24:11 MDT - Msg ID: 70330)

Suit filed against J.P. Morgan Chase

http://www.msnbc.com/news/710174.asp?0si=-
Inadequate disclosures on Enron exposure raise concerns

Snippit:

NEW YORK, FEB. 18 - A shareholder lawsuit seeking class-action status was filed against J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., alleging the company issued misleading statements concerning its exposure to Enron Corp.

In a press release, plaintiff law firm Glancy & Binkow LLP said the lawsuit was filed on behalf of people who purchased J.P. Morgan securities between Nov. 28 and Jan. 28. Enron filed for bankruptcy in early December. J.P.Morgan initially said its Enron exposure was $900 million.

But on Dec. 19, J.P. Morgan Chase said its exposure to Enron was nearly $1 billion more than it has already disclosed, raising concerns among investors whether the bank has even more exposure to the energy trader lurking beneath the surface.

The bank said it had sued several insurance companies which are seeking to back out of commitments to assure $1.1 billion in payments related to crude-oil and gas contracts. Of that $1.1 billion, $965 million is owed to J.P. Morgan Chase. The bank's litigation seeks to force the insurers to make good on the payments.

Black Blade: I understand that other large shareholder lawsuits are in the works against Arthur Andersen as well. There will likely be several more against Enron managers, offshore entities, and even some Wall Street analysts, their employers, and investment managers. That doesn't even include other recent problems regarding Kmart, Global Crossing, etc. etc. etc. The system appears to be broken. Looks like "Interesting" times ahead.

Black Blade

(02/18/2002; 17:34:43 MDT - Msg ID: 70331)

The danger of a triple sell-off

http://www.japantimes.com/cgi-bin/geted.pl5?ed20020218a1.htm
Snippit:

Financial markets continue to send warning signals about Japan's economy. The most worrying is the possibility of a "triple fall" in shares, securities and yen rates. Investors here and abroad, increasingly nervous about the risk of holding Japanese assets, are selling off their holdings.

The indications are that investor confidence in the Japanese economy is dropping to a dangerous level. Investors seem concerned particularly about the falling price of government bonds. In fact, the growing selling pressure on these securities is pushing up their yields, a benchmark for long-term interest rates. The rise in the cost of money, unless held in check, will worsen the recession.

Beyond that, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the private sector to absorb bond issues. The latest boom in gold sales illustrates that people are turning their backs on securities investments. Yet the government, already the most heavily indebted of the major industrialized nations, is set to issue at least 30 trillion yen worth of bonds annually.

Black Blade: In a word - "GRIM"

Black Blade

(02/18/2002; 17:40:13 MDT - Msg ID: 70332)

Kaufman Says Stocks Pricey

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20020216/bs/column_profile_dc_1.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - He made one of the most famous bullish calls in Wall Street history in the early 1980s, but Wall Street legend Henry Kaufman isn't so enthusiastic about stocks these days. Stocks are expensive by historical measures and the Federal Reserve can do little more to fire up the U.S. economy, Kaufman told Reuters.

Black Blade: No kidding.

Black Blade

(02/18/2002; 17:45:14 MDT - Msg ID: 70333)

POG Breaking Down

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
I was afraid of this as I mentioned last night. Since the POG could not hold above $300/oz. it appears that the price could fall for the next few weeks until fresh buying toward the end of March when Japanese savers begin to panic or when the next major scandal or terrorist attack occurs. I hope I'm wrong.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(02/18/2002; 18:06:55 MDT - Msg ID: 70334)

Gold and Silver Gifts - Casting Pearls Before Swine

I have recently seen discussions on other sites about giving physical Silver and Gold as gifts to others )friends and family), and yet these gifts are thrown aside or sold almost immediately. I don't understand why people would give away physical PMs anyway. Why "cast your pearls before swine"? (sorry - I had to add something for the religious folk here). It may be better to just educate these people so that the seed is planted and they may pursue getting this portfolio insurance themselves.

I had accumulated a good position in physical PMs because of miners who would get Silver and Gold medallions as safety and attendance awards. The word got around that I would pay spot for their bullion and they would sell it to me. They wanted "beer money" or to sell it before the wife knew about it. Few seemed to know or care about the significance of physical precious metals. I was more than happy to relieve them of this burdensome barbarous relic. Why anyone would give away precious things to swine is beyond me. I would suggest that you keep it until that "insurance" is truly needed. So, again I ask - why "cast your pearls before swine"?

- Black Blade

OpalBill

(02/18/2002; 18:58:30 MDT - Msg ID: 70335)

****$284.0****

Long time lurker, first time to post. I was waiting for some kind of cosmic revelation or something concerning this gold thing before I wanted to post. Well, no revelations yet but I would like to put in my guess, which appears to be the average POG for what seems like eternity.

Cavan Man

(02/18/2002; 18:58:43 MDT - Msg ID: 70336)

Japan

Yen Falls After Shiokawa, Takenaka Damp Bank Aid
Expectations
By Kanako Chiba and Mari Murayama

Tokyo, Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The yen had its biggest slide against the dollar in
almost a week after two Japanese officials damped expectations the government
may pump money into banks, which are losing money because of loans that
aren't being repaid.

Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa and Economy and Fiscal Policy Minister
Heizo Takenaka both signaled it may not be necessary to arrange an aid plan for
lenders using public money before then end of the fiscal year March 31.

``These remarks disappointed the markets' expectations for strong policy
initiative,'' said Takashi Nakata, a manager of spot foreign exchange proprietary
trading at BNP Paribas SA.

The Japanese currency weakened to 133.28 versus its U.S. counterpart from
132.71 late yesterday in New York. Against the euro, it declined to 116.03 from
115.55.

``I don't think it's necessary to inject public funds into banks now,'' Shiokawa told
reporters after a Cabinet meeting. ``The government doesn't have any intention of
forcefully injecting public funds into banks now.''

Rock

(02/18/2002; 19:03:22 MDT - Msg ID: 70337)

aussies get a gold metal

did you see in the olympic skating race yesterday when the first, second and third place skaters had wiped out before reaching the finish line and the fourth place aussie glides right across the finish line for the gold! who would have thought?

hey blackblade your the man, love those updates!

sector

(02/18/2002; 19:20:22 MDT - Msg ID: 70338)

About the Japanese Gold Demand

Not so much in the past few days but...

According to data on the official Japanese Demographics website which contains savings data as well as age group breakouts, there is over $620,000,000,000 in UNINSURED savings in the 60s, 70s and up category [Using $85,000 max. insurance value].

These elderly folks have an average of $150,000 and $157,000 net savings for each household.

This calculation is independent of bank data on timed deposits and I believe is more representative of the true vast mountain of wealth.

There's more...

The banks are functionally insolvent and there is talk of a "nationalization of the banks"� something that would logically NOT include uninsured assets. Thus the plan in Japan may be to shaft the elderly population out of half of their life savings in order to "bail out the banks".

Should the authorities actually BE that foolish, the remaining half of this vast cache of cash would go to gold in a flash. How much would that be? My original numbers were based upon widely circulated "average" savings of $115,000. The new data is more accurate.

It shows if only 17% move their uninsured assets to gold the number is 10,945 tonnes...if half move their gold it's 32,205 tonnes.

Japan is the key to the death of the Summers Rubin Gold Pool.

RAP

(02/18/2002; 19:25:16 MDT - Msg ID: 70339)

Interstate: gold in sea water

http://www.ozreef.org/reference/composition.htmlThis is breakdown of sea water in PPM. Gold is only 4 parts per BILLION, but silver is only 2, so gold is twice as plentiful as silver.
Anyone want to venture a guess at the number of tonnes of sea water?

Brett Woods

(02/18/2002; 19:27:23 MDT - Msg ID: 70340)

Just noticed

this older news report citing:

"Oct. 15, 2001--E-TRADE Bank, a wholly-owned subsidiary of E-TRADE Group, Inc.(NYSE: ET) and the nation's largest branchless bank, today announced the execution of a definitive agreement to acquire more than 33,000
customer accounts with deposits currently valued at more than $1.5 billion from Chase Manhattan Bank USA, National Association, a subsidiary of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. ..."

[So the average account transfered from JPM was $45,455]?

and further down; about E-TRADE:
"...E-TRADE Bank is the nation's largest branchless bank with over $13 billion in assets, more than $8 billion in deposits and over 436,000 customer accounts as of September 30, 2001."

[So previous to these aquisitions the average E-Trade account was $18,350]?

hmm, anyway

A question for any of the esteemed circle:
How would it advantage Japan to sell U.S. treasuries and what might trigger them to do this on a large scale?
[appologies if this has been covered]

p.s. What are gold medals made out of ? [see above appology]

Yellow Jacket

(02/18/2002; 19:32:27 MDT - Msg ID: 70341)

Price Contest

*****292.4*****
The market is undergoing a bit of a correction right now.It will find support and make new highs in the coming months.

Cavan Man

(02/18/2002; 19:40:09 MDT - Msg ID: 70342)

sector

Japanese Gold DemandYes and, the gold market is fundamentally the same despite the nice support around $300 we have seen lately. Paper beats metal. You play their game in their house. Should we be thankful for Japan or fearful of catching pneumonia?

I think the meetings there the last couple of days included a lot of discussion about repatriation of capital in addition to reforms that need to be undertaken IMHO.

uponroof

(02/18/2002; 20:08:48 MDT - Msg ID: 70343)

Is it any wonder that the private sector is abusing accounting of debt...

http://www.nationalreview.com/nrof_bartlett/bartlett021402.shtmlwhen our elected officials, who through societal default we call 'leaders', leave nothing less than bouncing checks at every turn of public policy reckoning.

I don't know how anyone can read this article (which btw comes from a place billed as 'America's Premier Conservative Website') without increasing your position in gold. This is pretzel logic in the extreme. A certain indication that we are well past the point of return, almost upon the falls.

Let me start with this illustration:

I am in a situation with my retirement funds similar to that of many former Enron employees. Both I and my employer make contributions to the fund, but I am not able to diversify or control the fund. The fund also brings in only about 3 percent per year, and there are better options available in which I cannot participate. There is ongoing talk that the fund may collapse and leave me with nothing after years of savings committment, but I cannot opt out of the fund. Every attempt to give me more rights to control my fund is met with resistance...

Do you know this fund?

Social Security...

which is of course in 'debt'....and I use that word loosely for fear of giving debt a bad name.

The link above contains the argument to again raise the debt limit so that the political footbal, Social Security, can be passed on to the next batch of societal default 'leaders'.

from the link:

"...The truth is that the Social Security trust fund is really nothing more than an earmarking or accounting device. It is more akin to budget authority than a true trust fund. It simply gives the federal government legal permission to use general revenues to pay Social Security benefits once current Social Security revenues are insufficient to pay current Social Security benefits. That day will come in about 10 years.

It really makes little difference, substantively, whether there is $1.3 trillion in "assets" in the Social Security trust fund or $13 trillion. It wouldn't change the basic problem, which is whether or not there are sufficient revenues from the Social Security tax to pay Social Security benefits.

Indeed, the late Herb Stein once suggested, only half in jest, that the Treasury should just create out of thin air $10 trillion in new securities and deposit them in the Social Security trust fund. Since no additional borrowing from the public would take place and since no additional debt would be incurred, it would have no economic effect whatsoever. The Treasury would simply be converting an implicit debt into an explicit one. The net effect would only be to extend the date by which general revenues could legally be used to pay Social Security benefits.

Therefore, I have great difficulty in worrying about whether excess Social Security revenues are temporarily used to finance other government expenditures, in some sense. All that matters, economically, is how much the federal government either draws out of private financial markets when it must borrow to finance deficits, or how much it adds to private financial markets when it runs a surplus. The government's internal accounting, as to whether such surpluses or deficits are on-budget or off-budget, is economically irrelevant.

Furthermore, the whole question of whether the federal government runs surpluses or deficits � at least of the magnitude that we have seen since World War II � is far less important to financial markets than is commonly imagined. According to the Federal Reserve's Flow of Funds Accounts, there was almost $19 trillion in debt outstanding last year � household, business and government. The net addition to this total by the federal government would have to be much larger than has been seen in the last 50 years or is contemplated in the future to have any meaningful impact � more than a few basis points � on the level of market interest rates...."
************

If one expands upon this theory then debt can be continued, in proportion to whatever index is convenient, indefinitely. Once we buy into that, we will believe there is never any reckoning or accounting to consider again. Why not then just print money, as Mr. Stein suggests, whenever the need arises? After all it only costs $2.50 in ink and paper for every $1000 FRN. Just how far from this 'last stop' insanity are we?.......
and we have the nerve to insist Japan swallows their bitter medicine? Incredible.

Christian, if you're out there lurking please offer a debt rant of epic proportions. Don't hold back. I'm sure you can add some juice to this issue.
********

Watch POG tommorrow in London and NY. Don't forget this little swoon started on a last minute quash, on a shortened day, before a holiday. The initial breakdown was in a thin market, minutes before closing time.

The campfires are buring in enormous numbers tonight.

(02/18/2002; 21:08:53 MDT - Msg ID: 70344)

Business Report

Members :

I am unable to access the web site today. Does anyone know
of a change in their address: www.busrep.co.za/?
Is www.busrep.co.za/ still valid? I would
appreciate feedback - ie if that site works on other
computers. Thanks.

Ax

uponroof

(02/18/2002; 21:23:16 MDT - Msg ID: 70345)

IMF selling gold?

Just heard from a friend that the IMF will be selling 5-10 million ozs into the market fairly soon. Anyone have any info?

Canuck

(02/18/2002; 21:30:30 MDT - Msg ID: 70346)

Hey BB......

....my bid of $333.33 is scheduled for closing on Wednesday.

You?

Mr Gresham

(02/18/2002; 21:33:38 MDT - Msg ID: 70347)

Violence

"There appears to be no limit in sight for this madness. Each act of reprisal by one side merely provokes the other in a never-ending cycle of violence and retaliation. " from Holger Jensen's report.

Simple game theory does not speak well for retaliation. Retaliation fails to "educate" the other side in steps that will eventually be to YOUR advantage. Taking small steps forward, and then rewarding their reciprocation, does.

Someone who once lived in that neighborhood recommended strongly against killing children: "Whosoever harms one of these little ones, it were better for him that a millstone were hanged around his neck, and he cast himself into the sea than that he should offend one of these..."

When children are caught in wars, even of "implacable" foes, someone has to "go to China". Mandela and de Klerk did it. Reagan and Gorbachev did it. Our recent lifetimes have some positive breakthroughs in them, to relieve the bleakness we would otherwise conclude was "reality."

Black Blade

(02/18/2002; 21:38:46 MDT - Msg ID: 70348)

Canuck

Just waiting to see how Europe and NY play it tonight. If resistence breaks down I will have a good idea by tomorrow afternoon. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Canuck

(02/18/2002; 21:43:00 MDT - Msg ID: 70349)

@ uponroof

IMF, AMF, ABC, they are all selling, pain threshold has been breached.

$300 spot for X days is not the key, closure this Friday is the key, suppose 298 is the paper threshold for pain, 298.10 is pain, 297.90 is profit.

So what is pain, 308, 302, 298, 292, 286, 282? Recall the lessons, at this point paper defines the pain.

Co-incidentally I bailed out of most gold stock Friday, even more today, shhhhhh, went long tech paper today taking advantage of Canada open, US closed. Hope to reverse Thursday late or Friday early.

Go NT go.

Canuck

(02/18/2002; 21:45:15 MDT - Msg ID: 70350)

So you are sitting in that 292-298 range?

mikal

(02/18/2002; 21:47:14 MDT - Msg ID: 70351)

Funny money

Re: Introducing metal. I have found a good conversation starter is to pay for things with copper clad US halves, 1971- present. Many local branches accumulate them from customers, who may have taken a trip to casinos. Vegas and Atlantic City use tokens and medals instead of halves in slots, almost, if not 100%, exclusively- the past couple years. Some Native American Indian run casinos, among others, may use them because they still turn up in quantity, though fewer. One local branch actually orders rolls from a larger bank for customers like myself. I always sort them first for 40% and 90%, then spend the slot machine scarred as well as the beauties such as later year 1996-present. Occasionally, a tellers response for dollar coins is 1999 Anthonys, or better yet, the big Eisenhower copper clad $ (1971-1978), worth little enough to spend ($1.05-1.10). I get a "read" on the situation and individual before spending odd money. Though most seem to enjoy them, some hesitate and struggle with confusion, so, along with the apathetic, they receive "normal" change. In every case, money pointers are the limit to what they'll hear, not JFK assassination theories or obscure, unfamiliar matters of investment, economics, etc.

Canuck

(02/18/2002; 21:47:24 MDT - Msg ID: 70352)

I bet NY plays it pretty flat tonight!?

Voyager

(02/18/2002; 21:55:04 MDT - Msg ID: 70353)

Gold Discussion on the Radio

Tonight on the Jeff Rense Program at 9:00 pm Craig Griffin and tomorrow night at 7:00 pm, Bill Murphy both pacific time.

Voyager

(02/18/2002; 21:58:26 MDT - Msg ID: 70354)

On the internet

http://www.rense.com/Not on our local radio station any longer.

Waverider

(02/18/2002; 21:58:31 MDT - Msg ID: 70355)

Major gold campaign lined up for DSF (Dubai Shopping Festival)

http://www.gulfnews.com/Articles/news.asp?ArticleID=41559Snippit:
"Dubai's gold jewellery retail sales fell by 9.42 per cent last year to Dh250 million compared to Dh276 million worth of jewellery sold in 2000, according to the Gold and Jewellery Group.

The group has also announced a comprehensive promotion for this year's Dubai Shopping Festival (DSF), which involves 41 kg of gold to be given away in raffle draws and five golden egg races every day.

"While the Dubai City of Gold promotion still stands, this year, we have adopted the 'Gold First, Everything Follows' campaign. The campaign aims to position gold at the top of consumer's shopping lists," said an official.

"Gold has always been viewed as an investment and a wise spending choice, but the Gold and Jewellery Group is working hard to bring the point home. Since gold prices have room to rise, this is perhaps a very good time to invest," said Tawfique Abdullah, chairman of the Group.

This year, the Group is offering a 'passport' to all shoppers spending Dh500 on gold and jewellery, which includes a coupon for a daily raffle that would fetch 1 kilo of gold and a separate coupon for the grand raffle that would fetch 10 kg of gold on the concluding day of the festival."

Waverider: It's interesting that I've never seen Dubai actively advertise as a major Gold/jewellery centre and this is the second reference we've seen in as many days. I had a very brief stop-over in Dubai a few years ago and the Gold jewellery outlets are mind-boggling. It seems more than coincidental that this advertising campaign is kicking off simultanteous to yesterday's announcement that Dubai will become an International Financial Centre (see #70284). Hey...a 10 kg Gold raffle - it's enough to make you want to catch a (not-so-quick) flight to Dubai. Cheers!

goldquest

(02/18/2002; 21:58:58 MDT - Msg ID: 70356)

uponroof Ref IMF Gold Sales

http://www.house.gov/jec/imf/gold/gold.htmNothing new on their website. However, the dated link above might be worth another look!

Gandalf the White

(02/18/2002; 21:59:53 MDT - Msg ID: 70357)

The COMEX February '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST

with a Special NOTE to Sir Henri !!----

Please enter again, Sir Henri, as someone beat you to it!!
****$319.9**** Henri (02/17/02; 07:32:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 70239)

UPDATE !!!

THE RULES (revisited) --
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of
(GC2G) on the date of Friday the 22th of February.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "stars" *****
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as *****$543.2*****
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, Feb. 21th.
6) A short "WHY" discussion paragraph should accompany your prognostication.
GOOD LUCK ALL !

===
PROGRESS REPORT !!
GUESSES in order of DECENDING Value

****$8,752.0**** The Invisible Hand (2/18/02; 01:46:17MT msg#: 70296)
****$5,126.0**** R Powell (02/18/02; 13:19:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 70320

****$1,500.0**** LimitUp (02/14/02; 23:41:07MT msg#: 70090

****$929.0**** golden rule (02/14/02; 18:10:01MT msg#: 70049

****$448.4**** techbull.... (02/16/02; 22:30:45MT msg#: 70224

****$437.5**** Econoclast (02/14/02; 19:05:57MT msg#: 70063

****$379.0**** sstins (02/14/02; 14:34:25MT msg#: 70015

****$352.2**** goldquest (02/14/02; 13:52:51MT msg#: 70010

****$339.0**** rsjacksr (02/15/02; 20:15:47MT msg#: 70164

****$333.3**** Guided (02/16/02; 14:33:23MT msg#: 70206

****$329.1****.Clint H (2/15/02; 09:40:17MT msg#: 70111
****$329.0**** ROSEBUD99 (2/15/02; 09:32:21MT msg#: 70110

****$327.6**** RobotGuy (2/15/02; 08:09:30MT msg#: 70104

****$324.1**** auenboy (02/17/02; 19:31:09MT msg#: 70281

****$320.4**** Rock (02/18/02; 16:33:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 70328)

****$320.2**** Tommy P (02/16/02; 13:33:42MT msg#: 70201

****$319.9**** Pizz (02/14/02; 22:52:31MT msg#: 70084
****$319.8**** Shermag (02/17/02; 18:38:33MT msg#: 70278

****$319.2**** MidEastGold (2/15/02; 07:05:36MT msg#: 70102

****$318.2**** A Canadian (02/14/02; 14:36:41MT msg#: 70016

****$317.9**** wiley (02/14/02; 20:41:56MT msg#: 70076

****$316.3**** slingshot (02/14/02; 14:22:58MT msg#: 70012

****$315.3**** CoBra(too) (02/17/02; 17:57:15MT msg#: 70277

****$315.0**** neer-do-well (02/16/02; 21:14:28MT msg#: 70217

****$313.5**** KTC (02/17/02; 22:25:55MT msg#: 70288)
****$313.4**** pdeep (02/18/02; 16:25:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 70326)

****$312.5**** darkhorse (02/14/02; 13:35:52MT msg#: 70009

****$312.1**** Voyager (2/15/02; 12:50:14MT msg#: 70138

****$310.0**** Boxman (02/15/02; 18:52:21MT msg#: 70160

****$309.7**** Hektor (02/16/02; 14:31:01MT msg#: 70205

****$309.5**** Siochain (02/14/02; 20:07:10MT msg#: 70070

****$308.7**** law (02/14/02; 22:17:01MT msg#: 70080

****$308.1**** goldenpeace (02/14/02; 13:22:48MT msg#: 70008

****$307.9**** Jon (2/15/02; 13:02:47MT msg#: 70141

****$307.7**** Waverider (02/14/02; 15:13:23MT msg#: 70021

****$306.1**** EagleOne (02/14/02; 14:27:04MT msg#: 70014

****$305.4**** Achilles (2/15/02; 05:25:21MT msg#: 70099

****$305.0**** Broken Tee (2/15/02; 14:32:54MT msg#: 70143

****$304.7**** Angel (02/17/02; 19:55:18MT msg#: 70282

****$304.5**** Joepmbull (02/18/02; 11:39:21MT msg#: 70318
****$304.4**** Solomon Weaver (02/16/02; 10:53:18MT msg#: 70190

****$304.2**** balzac (02/14/02; 17:34:42MT msg#: 70041

****$303.8**** uponroof (02/14/02; 14:24:30MT msg#: 70013

****$303.3**** AUtistic (02/17/02; 07:13:15MT msg#: 70236

****$303.1**** Operative (2/16/02; 03:47:42MT msg#: 70184

****$302.5**** Canuck Gold (02/14/02; 15:09:18MT msg#: 70019

****$302.3**** Mythical (02/14/02; 21:42:32MT msg#: 70079

****$301.9**** goldroadlx7 (02/16/02; 12:39:41MT msg#: 70195

****$301.0**** Christian (02/17/02; 06:47:49MT msg#: 70235

****$300.1**** VanRip (02/14/02; 18:25:51MT msg#: 70054

****$299.9**** Artie Farkle (2/15/02; 02:08:09MT msg#: 70097

****$299.0**** Carl H (02/14/02; 14:20:24MT msg#: 70011

****$298.7**** Truthcaster (02/14/02; 18:25:45MT msg#: 70053

****$298.4**** Topaz (02/14/02; 23:39:21MT msg#: 70089

****$297.9**** Knallgold (2/15/02; 07:47:09MT msg#: 70103

****$296.7**** The CoinGuy (02/14/02; 17:14:39MT msg#: 70037

****$295.6**** coco (02/18/02; 16:29:13MT msg#: 70327
.
****$294.5**** turkey hunter (02/18/02; 15:05:26MT msg#: 70322

****$293.0**** Flatlander (02/17/02; 10:39:58MT msg#: 70249

****$292.8**** Trapper (02/14/02; 19:44:13MT msg#: 70067

****$292.4**** Yellow Jacket (02/18/02; 19:32:27MT msg#: 70341

****$292.0**** Grubstaker (02/14/02; 22:50:18MT msg#: 70083
****$291.9**** silvercollector (02/15/02; 16:41:09MT msg#: 70149

****$290.9**** kludge (02/18/02; 13:15:21MT msg#: 70319

****$290.4**** John Doe (02/17/02; 23:06:16MT msg#: 70289)

****$290.0**** HOOSIER GOLDBUG (02/14/02; 15:50:12MT msg#: 70031
****$289.9**** miner49er (02/14/02; 15:30:03MT msg#: 70026

****$284.0**** OpalBill (02/18/02; 18:58:30MT msg#: 70335

****$274.9**** Frosty (02/14/02; 18:55:58MT msg#: 70060
===
<;-)

mikal

(02/18/2002; 22:02:19 MDT - Msg ID: 70358)

Re: Branches

Should read: bank branches. Also Sacajawea "gold", "golden", "gold-colored" dollars used to be fun to spend. But after awhile it became too depressing to explain about them, especially with their rapid tarnishing.

jinx44

(02/18/2002; 22:09:59 MDT - Msg ID: 70359)

uponroof---National review article

You are so right. The NR is a duffers journal of the CFR. They print a good platitude now and again, but mostly they are elitist apologists, IMO.

The Bartlett article is a must read for all of us who know about the fallacy of fiat currency and central banking. He openly admits the fraud purpetrated on the public. This is an indictment of the federal reserve in a major way. Thanks for pointing it out.

auric

(02/18/2002; 22:11:08 MDT - Msg ID: 70360)

****$297.4****BIS or IMF pumping could hold price down for now

Hope I'm being pessimistic, but I've had lots of practice being a goldbug!

sourdough

(02/18/2002; 22:29:05 MDT - Msg ID: 70361)

About the Japanese Gold Demand

Sure looks to me that Koizumi is doing everything possible to push his people into gold.
So, push them 'scare them, do whatever you have to do, get that 25% of their savings into gold.
Get the imf, and every other government on side to provide that gold at a steady 300.
Bonzai, when their ready, gold goes up enough to allow them to break even, "even" if they lose the other 75%.
Of course they won`t lose it all, because as gold rises, consumers make money'start to feel confident, begin to spend, enjoying their windfall. Economy starts to recover led by domestic consumer demand.
Yen stops falling, reduces pressure on other countries to devalue. As gold rises, u.s dollars weakens to a point where exporters start to buck up the u.s. market.
Leaders pump up the volume on how this was a Japanese thing.
Nothing to do with the dollar. See, markets are recovering, Japan is recovering, Remember what GW said,"As Japan goes so goes Asia and America.
What option other than the gold tool is left to create "immediate wealth?
What place could be better than Japan to use the gold tool. Don`t worry the people that run this world will have some $300 gold too.
I think there are a lot of countries that would give "aid" in the form of low priced gold, if it would get Japan on it`s feet. Just consider how many countries would benefit on domestic led recovery in Japan. Every country.
If the IMF is going to step in with aid for Japan, it should be in the form of physical gold to Japanese consumers.
If they know the jig is up anyway, just on supply demand figures, why not accept it and use gold to fix Japan.
These manipulators will be considered heroes by everyone but us few old goldbugs, and at 4x $300 gold we`ll probably settle for a couple of heads on a pike.

MarkeTalk

(02/18/2002; 22:32:48 MDT - Msg ID: 70362)

sector, potential Japanese gold demand, financial meltdown

Many thanks for the hard numbers on what the uninsured portion of the Japanese savings pool is. I knew it was a huge number because I had seen that the Japanese postal savings were in excess of $1 trillion.

Now with these numbers at hand and the previously acquired information from various sources and newsletters about a financial meltdown to occur sometime between March 15th to March 31st (with special emphasis on the period from Passover to Easter which is March 27th-31st), I agree wholeheartedly that gold will play a pivotal role. I also think this is the most likely time for "King Dollar" to be de-throned in favor of the Euro, Swiss Franc, British Pound or a basket of these currencies--and ultimately (or simultaneously) GOLD. I will say more at a later time about the various sources who are calling for a major catastrophe/financial crash starting around this timeframe of the Spring Equinox and going forward through the Jewish feast of Passover and the Christian celebration of Easter and on into the summer months.

Another factor which posters here on this forum and elsewhere have mentioned is Japan's share of our US Treasury Bond market. Estimates run as high as $500 billion which could be unloaded quickly in the case of a banking meltdown in the Land of the Rising (Sinking?) Sun. Alan Greenspan knows this all too well and perhaps this looming threat is one of the reasons why President Bush is meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi. In fact, George W. made a gaff before reporters by confusing Japan's devaluation of the Yen with deflation of the economy, so you know that these topics are being discussed!

Waverider

(02/18/2002; 22:56:07 MDT - Msg ID: 70363)

Ax: SA Business Report

I can't access it - I was on this morning so I'm sure it's just temporarily down. Cheers!
Waverider

(02/18/2002; 23:11:34 MDT - Msg ID: 70364)

Thank You Waverider - re Bus Report

Thank you Waverider for the confirmation. I use an older
version of windows/browzer so I am never sure if the problem
is not on my end.

Regards, Ax

Carl H

(02/19/2002; 00:36:51 MDT - Msg ID: 70365)

Silver/Gold Price Graphs

Are there any silver or gold price graphs on the net that show volume (like the stock graphs)?

Thanaks!

John Doe

(02/19/2002; 01:30:59 MDT - Msg ID: 70366)

@RAP: gold & seawater

As this subject arises repeatedly, and partly to satisfy my own curiosity, I ran a calculation to estimate how many gallons of seawater would need to be processed to yield an ounce of gold.

On this site, http://www.ocean98.org/fact.htm, under the heading Water Masses, they estimate the ocean's total volume (excluding ice caps) at 328,000,000 cubic miles.

Also, under the heading Resources, Minerals, they claim that the ocean "mined" of all its gold would yield 9 lbs per person. That means that the oceans theoretically hold 20 million metric tons of gold (9 lbs/person * 6 billion persons * 12 troy oz/lb * 1 metric ton/ 32,150 troy oz) or about 150 times the estimated above-ground store of gold, and yet, unlike paper money, still a finite amount. That's certainly a lot of gold, but acquiring it is not exactly a cost-free proposition:

First, convert all the world's water from cu mi to cu in

328,000,000 cu mi * 147,200,000,000 cu ft/cu mi * 1,728 cu in/cu ft = 83,430,000,000,000,000,000,000 cu in

Then convert all the world's water in cu in to gallons

83,430,000,000,000,000,000,000 cu in * 1 gal/231 cu in = 361,000,000,000,000,000,000 gal

Now find the gallons required per lb of gold

361,000,000,000,000,000,000 gal / (9 lb/person * 6,000,000,000 persons) = 6,685,000,000 gal/lb

Now if the article linked above was referring to troy pounds (likely, as that's how gold is measured) then

6,685,000,000 gal/lb * 1 lb/12 oz = 557,000,000 gal/oz of gold

In short, providing both the stats from the article and my math are correct, about half a billion gallons of seawater would need to be processed to yield one troy ounce of gold.

One wonders if it would ever be economically feasible to pull gold from the ocean...certainly not at current prices and maybe not at ten times the price. And then there's the issue of "processing" all that water without upsetting the ocean's ecological balance or polluting the ocean with heat and/or chemical/(microbal?) byproducts.

Mr Gresham

(02/19/2002; 01:48:53 MDT - Msg ID: 70367)

John

Thanks!

I must have an inquiring mind, because that's _just_ what I wanted to know. (Seriously. Well, sorta. Not like I was worried about it happening anytime soon...)

Grubstaker

(02/19/2002; 02:02:21 MDT - Msg ID: 70368)

****$292.0**** Grubstaker (02/14/02; 22:50:18MT msg#: 70083

Looks as though my neck of the woods has become somewhat popular lately. "Immitation is the highest form of flattery" as they say. I believe this "correction" to be the last leg of the (straight) upward climb. "They have awoken a sleeping Giant."

Waverider

(02/19/2002; 02:03:18 MDT - Msg ID: 70369)

Angry Argentines smash up banks

http://www2.swissinfo.org/sen/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&eid=1032885Snippit:
"Hundreds of Argentines angry over a freeze of their bank deposits smashed banks' windows with hammers and rolling pins and pounded on their doors on Monday as the government struggled to halt snowballing inflation.

Just a dozen blocks away from where protesters slashed the tires of an armoured car carrying banknotes, about 1,500 people lined up outside Buenos Aires' main courthouse to try and recover their frozen savings by filing lawsuits.

The peso has depreciated about 50 percent against the U.S. dollar since January, when Duhalde broke the currency peg that made one peso equal to one dollar for a decade."

Waverider: I guess this really isn't surprising - I wonder how bad things will get before the week is out.

nickel62

(02/19/2002; 02:31:22 MDT - Msg ID: 70370)

Insight into the struggle at Morgan Chase to keep the charade going!

JP Morgan boosted by credit rating
By Gary Silverman in New York
Published: February 17 2002 18:53 | Last Updated: February 17 2002 19:10

JP Morgan Chase's campaign to boost its credibility in the credit markets has yielded results, as Moody's Investors Service, the credit rating agency, affirmed its rating for the bank and its subsidiaries at Aa3, indicating high quality.

JP Morgan's bonds have lost value in recent weeks, suggesting investors were worried about a downgrade. Last month, Standard & Poor's, the other major rating agency, revised its outlook for JP Morgan from "stable" to "negative".

Late on Friday, Moody's said JP Morgan's "financial performance has been disappointing of late".

The company lost $332m last quarter, reflecting its exposure to Enron and Argentina and continuing setbacks for its private equity investments.

But Moody's said JP Morgan still boasted a substantial capital base, a sound liquidity position, cost-cutting discipline and a diversified earnings stream. It noted the company's operations in investment, commercial and private banking, as well as asset management and custody services.

"These businesses create a more diverse earnings mix at JP Morgan than is present at its major investment banking competitors," Moody's said.

But it added: "JP Morgan's performance, relative to its peers in each of its business lines, will be the key to sustaining its current ratings. Moody's will place a premium on JP Morgan Chase's execution over the next 12 to 18 months."

Michael Mayo, a banking analyst at Prudential Securities, said equity investors would probably still focus on JP Morgan's earnings difficulties even with the "one-year reprieve" issued by Moody's.

"I would agree that they aren't at risk of defaulting or failing, but having said that, the bonds are trading as if there is going to be a downgrade eventually," he said. "It puts all eyes on S&P from a debt-rating standpoint."

Mr Mayo said he remained concerned about the impact of a downgrade on JP Morgan's derivatives business. JP Morgan's good credit rating makes it a desirable counterparty, and it maintains the biggest market share of any US commercial bank in derivatives.

Dina Dublon, JP Morgan's chief financial officer, told investors last week that a downgrade of more than one notch by the rating agencies would be a negative for the bank's derivatives operations. Law firm Glancy & Binkow announced on Friday a shareholder class action lawsuit against JP Morgan Chase, alleging that the bank holding company did not initially divulge the full extent of its exposure to failed energy trader Enron.

Waverider

(02/19/2002; 03:15:24 MDT - Msg ID: 70371)

Nikkei Slumps as Banks Wilt

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020219/t109969_1.htmlSnippit:
"Tokyo's Nikkei average on Tuesday posted its biggest one-day loss in two months as a visit by U.S. President George W. Bush ended without the Japanese government unveiling any concrete policy steps to revive the economy.

The benchmark Nikkei average closed down 246.09 points or 2.44 percent at 9,847.16, the biggest one-day percentage fall since December 13, when it lost 3.41 percent.

Mizuho, the world's biggest bank by assets, tumbled 7.36 percent to 214,000 yen on Tuesday. Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp , Japan's second-biggest bank and the most actively traded issue by volume on Tuesday, lost 5.64 percent to 452 yen.

In the brokerage sector, third-ranked brokerage Nikko Cordial Corp , the second-most actively traded issue, lost 8.79 percent to 415 yen. Number two Daiwa Securities Group fell 5.91 percent to 653.

Moody's Investors Service on Tuesday cut Daiwa's long-term debt rating to Baa3 from Baa2, and lowered the long-term debt rating of Nikko to Baa3 from Baa2."

Waverider: Most of Asia and Europe is awash in red tonight.

Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD

(02/19/2002; 04:41:45 MDT - Msg ID: 70372)

It's not exactly Olympic Gold, but you've worked hard and you, too, can be a proud owner

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

U.S. Liberty $10 Eagle
$10 Liberty

A "Premium" Opportunity

Call Centennial for details, or order online.
1-800-869-5115

Au-some

(02/19/2002; 07:22:18 MDT - Msg ID: 70373)

(No Subject)

*****$296.4*****
One step back to $296.40, then two steps forward to...

Interstate

(02/19/2002; 07:30:35 MDT - Msg ID: 70374)

ROSEBUD99, Rap, John Doe

Thank you for your research into sea gold. I just took my wife's word about it because she NEVER makes frivolous remarks about her work. I brought it up again this morning at breakfast and she said there are also nuggets on the ocean floor that have flowed in from rivers and streams, so some companies are working on cost effective ways to dredge the bottom (after the geo's have found a rich bed.) She does not work with metals, so is just going on her own knowdge.
Thank you for your research. I'm happy that I could stir some interest in a subject. My area would not create enthusiasm - Philosophy professor.
Have a good day, Interstate

USAGOLD Market Commentary

(02/19/2002; 08:08:25 MDT - Msg ID: 70375)

Gold Starts Week Quietly; Newmont Juggernaut Nears Merger CompletionNEWS & VIEWS Update!

Available online to all clientele and prospective clientele, NEWS & VIEWS Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has again been updated.

Read the full commentary and related information here. (access codes required)

New visitors may review these selected portions provided at the Daily Market Report page. You may enjoy our 24-Hour NewsWire provided at this page, also.

nickel62

(02/19/2002; 08:45:27 MDT - Msg ID: 70376)

Gold Contest prediction!

*****$307.75*****

nickel62

(02/19/2002; 08:47:16 MDT - Msg ID: 70377)

I guess I better c hange that to another number since it appears my guess has already been made.....

*****$314*****

Spartacus

(02/19/2002; 09:36:41 MDT - Msg ID: 70378)

Library

http://www.econlib.org/library/CEETitles.html
-The Library of economics and Liberty-

Austrian Economics, Bonds, Federal Reserve System, Gold Standard, Hyperinflation and more.

Waverider

(02/19/2002; 09:54:03 MDT - Msg ID: 70379)

US stocks tumble as accounting overshadows data

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT36762ATXC&live=true&tagid=ZZZ8P2KD20CSnippit:
"Strong economic data did little to encourage stock-buying on Wall Street on Tuesday morning. After a long three-day weekend, investors remained preoccupied about potential corporate accounting irregularities.

An hour into the session the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 95.76 lower at 9,807.28, and the S&P 500 was off 13.76 at 1,090.42. The Nasdaq Composite fared worse falling 34.20 - or 1.9 per cent - to 1,771.00.

Boeing fell 2.2 per cent to $43.90, and Walt Disney, which held a large shareholder meeting on Tuesday morning to discuss the state of its corporate health, was off 1.2 per cent at $23.61. Citigroup fell 1.6 per cent to $43.42 and JP Morgan Chase was off 1.7 per cent at $29.55 as fears over their possible lending to insolvent operations intensified."

Waverider: The TSE is down around 100 or 1.3%, with only the Gold sub-index up almost 3%. Spartacus - thanks for that fabulous link. Cheers!

RobotGuy

(02/19/2002; 10:12:36 MDT - Msg ID: 70380)

Ahhhhrrrrgggg!!

What's going on with POG???

RobotGuy

(02/19/2002; 10:20:10 MDT - Msg ID: 70381)

London [ : o ]

I suppose they feel they must dump, silly monkeys. If you thought your ounce of gold would be worth $350 next week, would you sell it for $290 this week?

Gandalf the White

(02/19/2002; 10:22:07 MDT - Msg ID: 70382)

The COMEX February '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST

YES Grubstaker ! LOTS of room at your level !! UPDATE !!!

THE RULES (revisited) --
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of
(GC2G) on the date of Friday the 22th of February.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "stars" *****
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as *****$543.2*****
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, Feb. 21th.
6) A short "WHY" discussion paragraph should accompany your prognostication.
GOOD LUCK ALL !
----
UNAVAILABLE ( because of prior claim ) ENTRY !!

****$319.9**** Henri (02/17/02; 07:32:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 70239)
Please enter again, Sir Henri !!

===
PROGRESS REPORT !!
GUESSES in order of DECENDING Value

****$8,752.0**** The Invisible Hand (2/18/02; 01:46:17MT msg#: 70296
****$5,126.0**** R Powell (02/18/02; 13:19:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 70320

****$1,500.0**** LimitUp (02/14/02; 23:41:07MT msg#: 70090

****$929.0**** golden rule (02/14/02; 18:10:01MT msg#: 70049

****$448.4**** techbull.... (02/16/02; 22:30:45MT msg#: 70224

****$437.5**** Econoclast (02/14/02; 19:05:57MT msg#: 70063

****$379.0**** sstins (02/14/02; 14:34:25MT msg#: 70015

****$352.2**** goldquest (02/14/02; 13:52:51MT msg#: 70010

****$339.0**** rsjacksr (02/15/02; 20:15:47MT msg#: 70164

****$333.3**** Guided (02/16/02; 14:33:23MT msg#: 70206

****$329.1****.Clint H (2/15/02; 09:40:17MT msg#: 70111
****$329.0**** ROSEBUD99 (2/15/02; 09:32:21MT msg#: 70110

****$327.6**** RobotGuy (2/15/02; 08:09:30MT msg#: 70104

****$324.1**** auenboy (02/17/02; 19:31:09MT msg#: 70281

****$320.4**** Rock (02/18/02; 16:33:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 70328

****$320.2**** Tommy P (02/16/02; 13:33:42MT msg#: 70201

****$319.9**** Pizz (02/14/02; 22:52:31MT msg#: 70084
****$319.8**** Shermag (02/17/02; 18:38:33MT msg#: 70278

****$319.2**** MidEastGold (2/15/02; 07:05:36MT msg#: 70102

****$318.2**** A Canadian (02/14/02; 14:36:41MT msg#: 70016

****$317.9**** wiley (02/14/02; 20:41:56MT msg#: 70076

****$316.3**** slingshot (02/14/02; 14:22:58MT msg#: 70012

****$315.3**** CoBra(too) (02/17/02; 17:57:15MT msg#: 70277

****$315.0**** neer-do-well (02/16/02; 21:14:28MT msg#: 70217

****$314.0**** nickel62 (2/19/02; 08:47:16MT msg#: 70377

****$313.5**** KTC (02/17/02; 22:25:55MT msg#: 70288)

****$313.4**** pdeep (02/18/02; 16:25:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 70326

****$312.5**** darkhorse (02/14/02; 13:35:52MT msg#: 70009

****$312.1**** Voyager (2/15/02; 12:50:14MT msg#: 70138

****$310.0**** Boxman (02/15/02; 18:52:21MT msg#: 70160

****$309.7**** Hektor (02/16/02; 14:31:01MT msg#: 70205

****$309.5**** Siochain (02/14/02; 20:07:10MT msg#: 70070

****$308.7**** law (02/14/02; 22:17:01MT msg#: 70080

****$308.1**** goldenpeace (02/14/02; 13:22:48MT msg#: 70008

****$307.9**** Jon (2/15/02; 13:02:47MT msg#: 70141

****$307.7**** Waverider (02/14/02; 15:13:23MT msg#: 70021

****$306.1**** EagleOne (02/14/02; 14:27:04MT msg#: 70014

****$305.4**** Achilles (2/15/02; 05:25:21MT msg#: 70099

****$305.0**** Broken Tee (2/15/02; 14:32:54MT msg#: 70143

****$304.7**** Angel (02/17/02; 19:55:18MT msg#: 70282

****$304.5**** Joepmbull (02/18/02; 11:39:21MT msg#: 70318
****$304.4**** Solomon Weaver (02/16/02; 10:53:18MT msg#: 70190

****$304.2**** balzac (02/14/02; 17:34:42MT msg#: 70041

****$303.8**** uponroof (02/14/02; 14:24:30MT msg#: 70013

****$303.3**** AUtistic (02/17/02; 07:13:15MT msg#: 70236

****$303.1**** Operative (2/16/02; 03:47:42MT msg#: 70184

****$302.5**** Canuck Gold (02/14/02; 15:09:18MT msg#: 70019

****$302.3**** Mythical (02/14/02; 21:42:32MT msg#: 70079

****$301.9**** goldroadlx7 (02/16/02; 12:39:41MT msg#: 70195

****$301.0**** Christian (02/17/02; 06:47:49MT msg#: 70235

****$300.1**** VanRip (02/14/02; 18:25:51MT msg#: 70054

****$299.9**** Artie Farkle (2/15/02; 02:08:09MT msg#: 70097

****$299.0**** Carl H (02/14/02; 14:20:24MT msg#: 70011

****$298.7**** Truthcaster (02/14/02; 18:25:45MT msg#: 70053

****$298.4**** Topaz (02/14/02; 23:39:21MT msg#: 70089

****$297.9**** Knallgold (2/15/02; 07:47:09MT msg#: 70103

****$297.4**** auric (02/18/02; 22:11:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 70360

****$296.7**** The CoinGuy (02/14/02; 17:14:39MT msg#: 70037

****$296.4**** Au-some (2/19/02; 07:22:18MT msg#: 70373

****$295.6**** coco (02/18/02; 16:29:13MT msg#: 70327
.
****$294.5**** turkey hunter (02/18/02; 15:05:26MT msg#: 70322

****$293.0**** Flatlander (02/17/02; 10:39:58MT msg#: 70249

****$292.8**** Trapper (02/14/02; 19:44:13MT msg#: 70067

****$292.4**** Yellow Jacket (02/18/02; 19:32:27MT msg#: 70341

****$292.0**** Grubstaker (02/14/02; 22:50:18MT msg#: 70083
****$291.9**** silvercollector (02/15/02; 16:41:09MT msg#: 70149

****$290.9**** kludge (02/18/02; 13:15:21MT msg#: 70319

****$290.4**** John Doe (02/17/02; 23:06:16MT msg#: 70289

****$290.0**** HOOSIER GOLDBUG (02/14/02; 15:50:12MT msg#: 70031
****$289.9**** miner49er (02/14/02; 15:30:03MT msg#: 70026

****$284.0**** OpalBill (02/18/02; 18:58:30MT msg#: 70335

****$274.9**** Frosty (02/14/02; 18:55:58MT msg#: 70060
====
Looks as if the NY boys like to show just whom has control of the PAPER gold.
<;-(

Brett Woods

(02/19/2002; 10:25:33 MDT - Msg ID: 70383)

London closing dump

RobotGuy, two only makes coincidence, but it would seem that it has nothing to do with triple witch or holidays but rather is the sale of an amount expected to overwhelm buyers and made at the critical time necessary to influence the PM fix. I suppose there is an old boys privilege dating back to the Rothschild era and on the face of it, among peers, it would seem acceptable. But nowadays it is not. Reginald Howe is likely 100% correct in the allegations he makes with his law suit.

Mr Gresham

(02/19/2002; 10:38:52 MDT - Msg ID: 70384)

Bank write-offs & exposure

http://www.fdic.gov/bank/analytical/largest/chart2.htmlFrom the FDIC, too. Reassuring, or what?

MarkeTalk

(02/19/2002; 10:43:28 MDT - Msg ID: 70385)

Rumor--Bundesbank to sell gold

Today's sharp drop in the gold price at mid-morning was triggered by a strategically placed rumor that the Bundesbank would not rule out sales of gold bullion. The market dropped $6.00/ounce in about 10 minutes. After discussion with Buena Fe and GATA chairman, Bill Murphy, it appears that this announcement is a last-ditch effort to suppress gold while bonds, stock market and the US dollar are all falling again. This surprise announcement is simply a red herring because the Bundesbank cannot act independently of the European Central Bank in matters relating to gold due to the Washington Agreement.

I think today offers a buying opportunity for those people who had been concerned that the gold price had gotten away from them. The rallying cry is "Buy the dips"!

Gandalf the White

(02/19/2002; 10:51:24 MDT - Msg ID: 70386)

WOWSERS !

http://www.fdic.gov/bank/analytical/largest/chart2.html
Mr Gresham (2/19/02; 10:38:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 70384)
Bank write-offs & exposure
====
VERY INTERESTING data SIR Gresham!!!
The Hobbits say "Thanks for the data source."
<;-)

Gandalf the White

(02/19/2002; 11:00:34 MDT - Msg ID: 70387)

Looking at Mr. Gresham's data link ---

NOTE the potential "Hit" from ENRON and Argentina that FleetBoston Financial Corporation still HAS !!
($millions) (% of Equity)
6,100 34.64
===
<;-(

Knallgold

(02/19/2002; 11:13:30 MDT - Msg ID: 70388)

Mr.G,Gandalf

This numbers imply Fleet is bankrupt,right?

Mr Gresham

(02/19/2002; 11:51:49 MDT - Msg ID: 70389)

Knallgold, Gandalf

Those percentages are poorly explained, IMO, but the column they are under is "Q4 net chargeoffs", and probably not the column to the left ("increase"), but I'm still having trouble wrapping my mind around the 144% figure (unless there is some bookkeeping entry known as "anti-chargeoffs" ;) ).

I think Gandalf is right to look at the % of equity hit in the "remaining exposure" column. In most non-performing loan situations, I tend to figure them for the "haircut" mode, where perhaps 20-50% of the loan is gone, not 100% because somebody still has an incentive to work it out at some level. But in the cases of Enron and Argentina, there is no incentive for anyone to pay anything toward these, since they've been so publicly zeroed out already.

POG suppression watch: If you were trying to figure strategies with fewer available resources remaining (JPM impaired), you would go for less-frequent interventions, and not trying to take it back to the 280 level (too expensive!), but hoping to shake confidence by making 300 seem too difficult to surmount. Create a trading range in the 290s. Plan B. Concede some yardage. Play for time, not price.

Someday to find out Bundesbank's role -- are they double agents? "The Bank Who Came in From the Cold"? "(Currency) Funeral in Berlin"? How many layers of intrigue? Within ECB (not necessarily because of rumors such as today attached to one bank) are there national economic factions gaming or "arbitraging" the Euro to their own slight advantage? Wouldn't be politics without it!

ausome

(02/19/2002; 12:02:49 MDT - Msg ID: 70390)

Competition

***$288.80***
I have not posted for such a long time. I could not resist entering. With Gold mine buy backs I don't see gold going to much lower by Friday. Strong demand out of Japan will keep it well bid for months to come. The stock market is definitely in bear mode giving investors plenty to think about when it comes to throwing money at stocks. The temporary dip is fine by me as it gives me more time to buy low.

RobotGuy

(02/19/2002; 12:17:13 MDT - Msg ID: 70391)

Demand

Doesn't seem to be much demand in North America these days. London screws with the POG and we're playing dormant. I guess the folks who could make a difference don't feel like getting involved in these price playing games. I wish I had enough money to play like these big boys do. Buy a bunch, wait for the lemmings to catch up and sell a bit. Kinda like trading stocks. Why dont some of these multi- billionaires want to get into PMs? Too risky? I guess it would take quite a lump of fiat to dominate the PM market. Well since silver is so cheap, and apparently more rare according to some in this forum, why wouldn't a rich dude dominate the silver market? Buy it all up and refuse to sell. Wait for the price to go up substantially and sell a little at a time. I guess my mode of thinking isn't complicated enough for these matters.

Black Blade

(02/19/2002; 12:17:37 MDT - Msg ID: 70392)

Time is running out for many U.S. jobless

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2002/02/19/BU145280.DTL&type=business
Snippit:

More laid-off Americans will exhaust their unemployment benefits in the first six months of 2002 than in any other year since the recession of the early 1990s unless Congress extends the benefits. Passage of a 13-week extension has been delayed, though, and the number of U.S. workers exhausting jobless benefits could grow at a rate of more than 80,000 a week, on average, according to a study by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities in Washington, D.C.

Black Blade: As the unemployed run out of benefits the government statistics tracking arm, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) no longer considers them unemployed. Add to this phoney baloney statistical filters such as "seasonality" and you soon see through this deception. The "Bone Pile" continues to grow while the true unemployment figure is much closer to 8% to 10%, and growing. This New Depression will continue to get much worse especially when Japan's insolvent bank crashes taking the World's banking system with it. Maybe this time it won't be Arkys and Okies fleeing to California to pick peaches and lettuce, but Californians and New Yorkers hitting the road to scavenge for a meal here and there, and who knows maybe stealing chickens and watermelons from farmers in Arkansas and Oklahoma.

Black Blade

(02/19/2002; 12:23:57 MDT - Msg ID: 70393)

Robotguy

The reason the Big Boys don't want to play the PM game in a big way is quite simple. The NYMEX would just screw them over just like they did the Hunts. They learned a lesson that you don't mess with the pit bulls in the government and at the NYMEX. If you have the right connections you just might play it like Warren Buffett until exposed. Then sit quiet. Otherwise it just doesn't pay to break from the pack.

- Black Blade

USAGOLD

(02/19/2002; 12:24:43 MDT - Msg ID: 70394)

The Bloomberg article

http://www.usagold.com/GermanNightmare.htmlThe Bloomberg article on Bundesbank gold sales is available at our News Feed at the Daily Market Report page.

A Case of Eddie Georgitis -- as bad as any I've seen.

Maybe Bundesbank needs to do a little study on what happened to the Bank of England once it sold gold to get a "return" on their reserves. Not a pretty picture -- in fact it's an embarassment to the British people. But we all know that this isn't the real reason why Welteke wants to sell gold. I would take a look at German bullion banks and see what kind of exposure they have in terms of gold liabilities. I think you will find the real reasons lie therein We're more than two years away from any potential gold sales at the Bundesbank and a lot of water will go under the bridge between now and then -- including a possible collapse of the world financial structure. One thing Welteke ought to take into consideration is what kind of return he would get on the dollar after inflation (and or depreciation against the euro) -- but he's a central banker, and shouldn't have to be lectured by the gold community on the concept of real rate of return. He's supposed to understand these things better than the rest of us. This move by Bundesbank is political like all gold sales are political. So what's really behind it? Nobody's going to buy that they are doing it for the return.

Further, how will the German people react to their gold reserves disappearing in the bullion banking black hole?

One caution to the German people:

1923.

A visit to our Gilded Opinion section for a trek through "The Nightmare German Inflation" might be salutary, not just for Mr. Welteke but for all concerned.

Gimli_

(02/19/2002; 12:28:19 MDT - Msg ID: 70395)

I guess RobotGuy Never heard of the Hunt Brothers... :-((

RobotGuy: "Well since silver is so cheap, and apparently more rare according to some in this forum, why wouldn't a rich dude dominate the silver market? Buy it all up and refuse to sell. Wait for the price to go up substantially and sell a little at a time. I guess my mode of thinking isn't complicated enough for these matters."

The Hunt Brothers were buying us silver in the late 70s and the price got over $50/ounce. Then the powers that be drubbed up racketeering charges or some such and put them in jail....

Monty Python: "Nobody escapes from the Spanish Inquisition."

Black Blade

(02/19/2002; 12:32:34 MDT - Msg ID: 70396)

Nikkei down 2.4% under banks' weight

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B7638DB15%2DF18B%2D426B%2DB76B%2DDAD08D4F8A5E%7D&siteid=mktw

U.S.-Japan summit outcome disappoints investors

Snippit:

TOKYO (CBS.MW) -- Tokyo's leading Nikkei index sank 2.4 percent Tuesday after U.S.-Japan summit talks failed to produce concrete policy steps aimed at shoring up the Japanese economy. Adding to the market's gloom, Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa said he saw no need to inject public funds into the nation's debt-ridden banks at the moment. This helped fuel selling in bank shares, which enjoyed steady gains in recent sessions on hopes for a government-supported injection of capital.

Black Blade: As the deadline approaches for the removal of deposit insurance at Japanese banks, we could see more of a move toward Gold. Also, as the POG falls, then both Japanese and Indians will likely return to Gold in a big way. The insolvent Japanese banks are toast without government intervention. There simply is no choice, and even then they will likely fail.

USAGOLD

(02/19/2002; 12:33:26 MDT - Msg ID: 70397)

Deja Vu

I might add that as we deal with this deja vu all over again, that the next Bank of England auction will be the last. So this appears to be a convenience. The leftist governments in Europe needed to pull a rabbit out of the hat. This is the best they could do -- replete with confusion over who the German people can blame. In the article there is already vacillation over whether this is Bundesbank Weleteke's idea or Finance Minister Weichel's.

Sound familiar, my fellow goldmeisters?

Black Blade

(02/19/2002; 12:46:36 MDT - Msg ID: 70398)

The Betrayed Investor

http://businessweek.com/magazine/content/02_08/b3771001.htm
Snippit:

Americans bought into the idea that stocks could only make them richer. Then the market bubble burst -- and then came Enron

It's 2 a.m., and Jim Tucci is staring wide-eyed at the ceiling--another sleepless night. Instead of counting sheep, he's anxiously tallying up how much he has lost in the stock market. Half of his $400,000 nest egg, he figures, has evaporated in just two years. Forget the retirement property on the Gulf Coast. Forget the long-planned trip to Italy with his wife.

Black Blade: Interesting article, though some of the data is suspect such as the S&P 500 PE Ratio calculated at 25. Wrong! - The S&P pe ratio is calculated as "operating earnings" - Not NET EARNINGS! Net earnings are at a PE ratio of about 62 (as of Friday). Other than that the article does a good job describing exactly what I have been droning on about here for quite some time. Note all the $Trillions of life savings of Americans that is vaporized - Gone - "Gone to Money Heaven".

Get out of debt now, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, have enough cash on hand for several months expenses, get a few months worth of food and basic goods stored away.

RobotGuy

(02/19/2002; 12:47:11 MDT - Msg ID: 70399)

Black Blade & Gimli - - - I don't understand.

What exactly are the rules to buying stuff? You can only purchase so much and then you're not allowed to sell anything? Like I said before, I don't have the historical understanding that you all have, just a very simplistic manner of logic.
Wouldn't it be in a country's best interest to have one of their own citizens dominate any market for that matter? Isn't this how you achieve power over other countries? Create demand from your country and watch the cash flow in?
I really don't understand this stuff.

sector

(02/19/2002; 12:51:45 MDT - Msg ID: 70400)

@BlackBlade..Your are Correct about watching the Japanese...

...the long bond is down...that says the Japanese are selling US Treasuries in the aftermath of yet another non-event "Summit".

The judgements of a few million elderly Japanese mothers and grandmothers are poised to crush the pretend gold masters at the US Treasury, BOE and Bundesbank...they have seen their day. There are no more escape routes.

These fiscally conservative ladies know a fake LDP reformer when they see one. Their hero, Tanaka was fired by Koizumi because she spoke her mind. They know all too well that their life savings are at risk...in the hands of bureaucrats and policy that favors continued corruption.

Wagering against THAT underlying dynamic is just plain foolish.

Cavan Man

(02/19/2002; 12:53:48 MDT - Msg ID: 70401)

Bundesbank Announcement

Good news goldmeisters!George is right (as usual). The Bundesbank cannot act independently and in fact, sales are pre-programmed for them by the WA. Each signatory has an allotment within the 2000 ton bogey. Note in the Bloomberg article that the gentleman said the WA would be renewed! This tells me how desperate the situation has become. This is an additional buying opportunity. The "system" must be close to the point of failure. That's the alarm ringing in the central banks; not in my office.

Gimli_

(02/19/2002; 12:57:08 MDT - Msg ID: 70402)

The Hunt Brothers and the Silver Bubble

http://www.buyandhold.com/bh/en/education/history/2000/hunt_bros.htmlThe Hunt Brothers and the Silver Bubble
Brian Trumbore
President/Editor, StocksandNews.com

In 1973, the Hunt family of Texas, possibly the richest family in America at the time, decided to buy precious metals as a hedge against inflation. Gold could not be held by private citizens at that time, so the Hunts began to buy silver in enormous quantity.

In 1979 the sons of patriarch H.L. Hunt, Nelson Bunker and William Herbert, together with some wealthy Arabs, formed a silver pool. In a short period of time they had amassed more than 200 million ounces of silver, equivalent to half the world's deliverable supply.

When the Hunt's had begun accumulating silver back in 1973 the price was in the $1.95 / ounce range. Early in '79, the price was about $5. Late '79 / early '80 the price was in the $50's, peaking at $54.

Once the silver market was cornered, outsiders joined the chase but a combination of changed trading rules on the New York Metals Market (COMEX) and the intervention of the Federal Reserve put an end to the game. The price began to slide, culminating in a 50% one-day decline on March 27, 1980 as the price plummeted from $21.62 to $10.80.

The collapse of the silver market meant countless losses for speculators. The Hunt brothers declared bankruptcy. By 1987 their liabilities had grown to nearly $2.5 billion against assets of $1.5 billion. In August of 1988 the Hunts were convicted of conspiring to manipulate the market.

One other experience in the silver bubble worth noting, according to author Edward Chancellor ("Devil Take the Hindmost"), is the experience of an official at the Peruvian Ministry of Commerce, employed to hedge his country's silver production, who lost $80 million by illicitly selling silver short. Said Chancellor, "Although a relatively small sum for a sovereign nation, it was an omen: the 'rogue trader' had appeared on the modern financial scene."

The stock market had its own troubles during the rise and fall of silver. The Dow Jones peaked on February 13, 1980 at 903.84. The day of the collapse, March 27th, the Dow closed at 759.98, a decline of 16% in just 6 weeks. [However, intraday, the loss between the 2/13 high of 918.17 and the 3/27 intraday low of 729.95 was actually 20%.]

For many traders the collapse in silver was the final straw for a stock market already under siege from worries as diverse as the Iranian hostage crisis, the Russian invasion of Afghanistan and soaring interest rates. [The consumer price index climbed at a 13% rate for 1979. The prime lending rate hit 22% in early 1980]. But by the year's end, the whole decline was almost forgotten. The Dow ended the year at 963.99, thanks in large part to the euphoria over the election of Ronald Reagan.

Cavan Man

(02/19/2002; 12:57:11 MDT - Msg ID: 70403)

ALWAYS consider sources and motivations

Pentagon Readies Efforts to Sway Sentiment Abroad
Tue Feb 19, 9:00 AM ET
By JAMES DAO and ERIC SCHMITT The New York Times

WASHINGTON, Feb. 18 The Pentagon is developing plans to provide news items, possibly even false ones, to foreign media organizations as part of a new effort to influence public sentiment and policy makers in both friendly and unfriendly countries, military officials said.

Black Blade

(02/19/2002; 12:57:55 MDT - Msg ID: 70404)

When the Dollar Bubble Bursts

http://www.faz.com/IN/INtemplates/eFAZ/archive.asp?doc={9258FBF5-8443-4DA3-A7F5-C7DD0DCC5F0E}&width=640&height=480&agt=explorer&ver=4&svr=4
Snippit:

The dollar has probably entered the last stage of its seven-year bull run. The world's leading currency has not been as overvalued as it is now since 1985. And just as in the equity markets, bubbles in the currency markets tend to burst eventually.

Black Blade: A German perspective on the US Dollar. Though this article pushes for the Euro as an alternative - just think "Gold".

Oh yeah, BTW - even with the decline in the POG today, right now the US Dollar is still only worth 0.00341 ounces of Gold. Hmmm...

Black Blade

(02/19/2002; 13:09:11 MDT - Msg ID: 70405)

Robotguy - Hunts and Silver

Gimli is right. The changes in the COMEX rules were that the Hunts could only buy but not sell their silver contracts. This resulted in a disaster for the Hunts. The rumor still persists to this day that the COMEX managers were personally enriched as they took short positions just before making these rule changes. Of course the CFTC never investigated the suspicious rules changes as they are nothing but regulatory eunuchs. A more recent example of the dishonest and unethical managers at the NYMEX (and the TOCOM) cheating investors was the Palladium contract defaults last year when it became obvious that the Russians ran out of Palladium. Nothing really changes.

- Black Blade

Cavan Man

(02/19/2002; 13:37:12 MDT - Msg ID: 70406)

Washington Agreement

Of all the signatories to the WA, IMHO, Germany (and France) would be the very last to break it.

CoBra(too)

(02/19/2002; 14:27:53 MDT - Msg ID: 70407)

"Psycho" - Gold is "dead" ? ... Or ask the Japanese --

Please ...

When all auspices are against you -the $ down, the SM and the Bond, what do you do? Stage a counter attack, the last hope you have to stave off a major defeat!

That's right, call upon your friends at the Deutsche Bundesbank and have Wetelke musing about a reasonable sell off of their gold (not being sure it's there or even their's, after the relevation of James Turk's deep storage gold at West Point). Same thread at Georgie's needle of the (in)famous BoE - missing the petit point - at every joint.

Can't believe the German's will fall for the same trap - after all ther'e still some around, remembering the Weimar Repuclic ... and even wheelbarrows of cash depreciated faster ... than AG can ever print it - not even electronically, as it seems.

Hey! - It's Deflation you say! ... and you're right; It is financial asset deflation, as even your home has become collateral for the de(-ath)bt spiral, as never before. The SL crisis 20 years ago, costing you - the tax payer - about a trillion bucks, shucks - it's been a government bail-out, only now we're trillions of the same.

- So what do you think, this all about? A scheme to pass the default "proverbial buck" back to you - the tax payer ... and atop of it you patriotically may pay an extra buck or more for everlasting war against terror, while homeland security is sucking up the final liberty.

I'm probably too young, though I can definitely see the comparison to pre Hitler Deutschland and pray, it may not be total idiocy.

The forces of evil start with the total indebtness of a country, when life styles will be obsolete and dumbing down of the masses are complete.

May god save America and the rest of the world from this "treat"!

Final chance to go gold ... cb2

Waverider

(02/19/2002; 14:43:39 MDT - Msg ID: 70408)

A Ride on the Wild Side...

DITTO Cobra!

This is why Michael reminded us a few weeks back that the enemy is near...very..very..near. Steadfast!
Waverider

Cavan Man

(02/19/2002; 14:44:08 MDT - Msg ID: 70409)

@CB (too)

Sir Knight: You speak the truth (sometimes a hard master eh?). Had a premonition last evening and unloaded all my equities except XCL. Lost a couple of bucks but nothing near the slaughter that ensued later in the trading session. So, at the end of the day as we are wont to say here (a contemporary americanism) I sleep well on physical providing the penultimate leverage to and of SAFETY. Will be buying more of our favorite jr. though! It will likely get ugly but keep up the good wit and sense of humor. AU: C'est bon (mon ami)!

RobotGuy

(02/19/2002; 14:55:57 MDT - Msg ID: 70410)

Ok, then...Let's suppose...

Let's suppose I have a couple billion kickin' 'round, and I feel gold is at it's cheapest it will be for awhile, does that mean I wouldn't be allowed to sell it again?? What if I decided to transform my bullion into 24k jewellery? Hire a few quality jewellers, buy some wire machines and melting pots, and jack up the price of my jewellery to offset manufacturing costs. Would I be able to sell it then? How do the major jewellers get away with it? How does anybody get away with purchasing any 'commodity' and then reselling for a profit? I'm still dumbfounded as to how these people are put in jail. We've all purchased PM's as an investment security. Does this mean we won't be able to sell our small quantities of PM's in the future, or trade them for goods of equal value? Where's the cutoff? Why doesn't the entire staff of the Royal Canadian Mint get thrown in jail? Do they not have a small effect on the cost of the actual purchased gold maple leaf? Will all the Japanese who are buying sizable quantities of PM's be able to do anything with them in the future? .........I'm so confused!!! We all manipulate the market in seemingly insignificant ways even if it's unintentional.

I thank you gold bugs for attempting to explain these things to me, but I really don't understand!!!

TownCrier

(02/19/2002; 14:58:34 MDT - Msg ID: 70411)

Puplava's latest 'Storm Watch' available at the URL below. "Dow 10,000 versus Gold $300"

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/puplava/20020215.htmlThis week Jim writes much about gold:

-------"In many ways, the Dow has become the key to maintaining consumer confidence. As long as it remains close to the 10,000 level, consumers can hold on to the illusion that we're okay and that better times lie ahead. Keeping the Dow at or close to 10,000 is part of the confidence game that is now being played in the financial markets. If the Dow falls below that level, as it did following the terrorist attacks on the Trade Center in September, then hope dims and can quickly turn into fear.

...due to accounting changes, it is now estimated that companies will write-off close to $1 trillion in impaired assets from their balance sheets this year. The problem for Wall Street and their partners in the financial media is how to maintain the illusion of prosperity going forward. However, the battle for confidence has now decidedly turned in gold's favor.

There are four significant forces that have now aligned themselves in support of gold. These forces are

1] the storm front that is building in the economy and the financial markets around the globe,
2] the battle over hedging in the gold markets by producers and bullion banks,
3] the record level of low interest rates, and
4] the crisis in credibility in the financial system."
-----------

(click URL to see points 1, 2, 3, and 4 laid out in more detail)

TownCrier

(02/19/2002; 15:39:20 MDT - Msg ID: 70412)

Owning gold is like leaving Vegas with the shirt still on your back

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APHLFyxSAVS5TLiBTOnly a fool puts all of his chips on the table, yet the concept of real savings is lost on many people.

How's your appetite for gambling these days when so many of the tables are rigged?

----------New York, Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell on concern companies have used accounting tricks to inflate profits. Financial shares, including Citigroup Inc., led the decline as investors speculated default rates will increase.

International Business Machines Corp. dropped after the computer maker said it will provide more detailed financial reporting, responding to criticism it didn't adequately disclose a $300 million asset sale.

IBM ``is foreshadowing what's to come with other companies,'' said Kevin Connellan, head of equity trading at Northern Trust Corp., with $337 billion under management. ``You have to expect a contraction (in stock prices) as companies start to get revalued."

...``There are increasing signs that the situation may actually be deteriorating'' for phone-related companies, said John Haynes, who helps oversee $9.9 billion as a U.S. strategist at Carr Sheppards Crosthwaite in London.

Concern telecommunications companies won't have access to capital markets and may default on debt obligations hurt financial shares, said Mike Palazzi, head of equity trading at CIBC World Markets.

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. lost $1.02 to $29.03. Shareholders yesterday sued the second-biggest U.S. bank for allegedly breaking securities laws by failing to disclose the amount it might lose because of loans made to failed energy trader Enron.-----------------

Without asking for outside consensus, you know what your shirt is worth (i.e., the one on your back). You know the value of your house, too. And one day, you will also perceive the value for gold in a like manner, even though today its true value remains concealed in the price of its derivatives.

R.

Beowulf

(02/19/2002; 15:47:47 MDT - Msg ID: 70413)

Contest *****$295.00*****

Gandalf, put me in for the price above. I think there may be a lot of calls that would be in the money if the price were above $296.00 so the bullion banks need to push it down before expiration. We've seen this before evertime Gold shoots above a certain resistance point days before and expiration.

You see how they trotted out the "Bank Sales Might Happen" report. I also heard on CNBC that Barrick selling at spot instead of in the futures is a negative and will push the price down. These people have no shame!!

-Beowulf

Beowulf

(02/19/2002; 15:49:14 MDT - Msg ID: 70414)

Geez, I need to proof read before hitting the submit button.

-B

Max Rabbitz

(02/19/2002; 15:55:28 MDT - Msg ID: 70415)

German Gold Sales

The Germans may indeed be getting ready to sell gold into the market. The question is how much? If you recall London did not fill it's full 25 ton allotment the last couple auctions. They came up 5 tons short each auction. Has someone been pilfering the vaults? Insiders loading up?

To stay within the 400 ton yearly WA limit I calculate the Germans could sell at most only 15 tons this year and none next. It's the announcement that carries the sting (Second largest gold holder thinking of selling!) I'll bet our rascally gold manipulators had this little surprise announcement planned and waiting for some time. Very clever. But smacks of desperation. The abyss must be much closer than it was a few years ago.

I was prepared for the Japanese to announce gold sales/leasing after the Bush trip. I believe they had about 750 tons in reserve a few years ago. Maybe Koizumi said "you sell your gold first."

Cavan Man

(02/19/2002; 16:11:09 MDT - Msg ID: 70416)

TowneCrier

Agree with you and would you agree that this signpost along the trail invalidates the guide's running commentary. I'm trying to decide if I should reclassify the "commentary" as malarchy; at least in my own (simple) mind.

R Powell

(02/19/2002; 16:28:49 MDT - Msg ID: 70417)

RobotGuy

Hunts and Silver I may be able to offer some information. Currently, a Comex contract of silver is 5,000 ounces for the current month and future ones. If you want to buy, say the December contract, you place an order with your broker to buy (at the market, a certain set limit price, or if the price hits a certain price). Fine, you now hold a long position on 5,000 ounces which you "purchased" at a certain price. Let's say that price was $4.50/ounce. That means 5,000 ounces times $4.50/ounce which equals $22,500. Currently the margin, set by the exchange powers that be, for this "purchase" is $2,350. You need $2,350 in your account to hold this long future contract. Selling the same contract (going short) requires the same margin.
If the price of silver drops, you will have to furnish more margin money. If the POS goes up, you have some paper profit and extra "margin". You can sell your contract at any time before the December deadline or Notice Day. If you sell when POS is higher than $4.50 (for the Dec. contract), you have profit. If you don't offset (sell) by the deadline, you will be obligated to pay the balance of your purchase and make arrangements for delivery of your silver.
However, the margin requirements ($2,350) can be changed at most any time if it is deemed prudent to do so. In very volatile markets the margin requirements are often raised.
What if you had a very large number of contracts (like the Hunts did) and the margin was raised to, say 50% of the original purchase price? Now you need half of $22,500 or $11,250 deposited with your broker to hold each contract.
What if you don't have it? Forced to sell some contracts.
I believe the Hunts were forced to sell but their position was so large that no one could bail them out. There were no buyers. I've read that the most big market crashes result, not from too much selling, but from simply no buying. I've also read that the metals' brokers had orders not to buy, "You can sell, but you can not buy!" Either they knew it was bust time or they were so ordered to make it bust time. Either way, the Hunts cornered the market and the rules were changed and the game was rigged. They couldn't keep their positions without more margin and they couldn't sell into a rigged market.
The Hunts remind me of Prometheous who angered the gods (powers that be) and then paid dearly. Margin requirements are set by discretion and subject to change. If I had the financial power, I'd accumulate quickly but quietly like Buffet did in 1997-8 and when discovered, I'd look innocent and state that I'd bought enough and explain that I was just trying "to establish price equilibrium once again in the silver market." Then, when no one was looking, I'd start buying some more. Quietly, very quietly, a little at a time.
I have a theory that Buffet may have taken possession of his final 40 million ounces in lease form from shorts unable to deliver. That is, the shorts without silver to deliver, asked Buffet to lease back the non-existant metal for a certain length of time. Similar to paying the Visa bill with the Mastercard, the debt still exists but has been postponed.
Whatever games are contrived, IMHO, the industrial demand for silver will result in an end game when no amount of papering can supply non existent metal to those who need physical.
Hope this helps explain somewhat. The workings of commodity contracts can be complicated. Options to buy or sell those contracts at specified prices for certain lengths of time have further complicated the game since the Hunts days.
Physical is a sure thing.
Futures contracts and options are leveraged bets in a questionable game. I love both.
Rich

slingshot

(02/19/2002; 16:44:01 MDT - Msg ID: 70418)

RobotGuy Msg# 70410

Ferrengi Rules of AcquisitionFirst rule: Acquire as much Latium(Gold) for the least
possible price.
Second rule: Get the most for your Latium (Gold).

Funny they never put a Dollar value on Latium? Yet thet were always able to strike a deal.

Slingshot ;)

RobotGuy

(02/19/2002; 16:58:10 MDT - Msg ID: 70419)

Thank you Rich,

I understand what the others were trying to tell me before. Why, if someone has the money to purchase physical, would they go with paper contracts? Wouldn't it be more comforting to know that you have the metal in your posession somewhere?
When I was about 15, I went to the bank and purchased a number of ounces of silver as my first ever investment. I worked hard for the money, and I imagined what it would be like to have twenty or so ounces of silver all to myself. The woman at the wicket convinced/persuaded me to purchase a document saying I own the silver, but it should stay in safe keeping at Handy and Harmon. I said I would prefer to keep the silver myself, but she didn't think that would be such a wise idea. I remember sitting at home looking at this document and feeling really ripped off.
I will never ever purchase anything like that again for owning physical. If I must, I will pay the riddiculous Canadian surcharges and tax to own the actual stuff. If I owned enough to hurt me if someone confiscated it, I would consider burying it on a remote Island way up north somewhere, I have the exact island in mind, 80% granite.
All these put, call, hold, chase, short, long, dump, scream, buy again things just don't appeal to me.

Thank-you for your post. BTW are you allowed to buy significant quantities of physical and then resell them?

R Powell

(02/19/2002; 18:21:17 MDT - Msg ID: 70420)

RobotGuy

You're welcome. Yes, contracts and options can be bought and sold as often as one wishes with the exception of what are called European options which, I believe, can only be exercised on the expiration date. Almost all commodity trading is a paper fiat game margined with fiat and settled with the same.
Ted Butler is constantly complaining that there is more gold and silver sold or bought (the total amounts are always equal) in existing contracts than exists in physical form. This is true of many commodities. There all bets, determined supposedly by the laws of supply and demand, at least in free, unmanipulated markets that is.
What is IMHO true, is that there has been more gold and silver sold over the years that is not presently reflected in the Comex numbers than can be repaid or can be repaid without those staggeringly high fiat numbers we often about. I believe this paper game has evolved to the point of almost totally obscuring the true supply and demand fundamentals of the silver market. This, along with the huge amount of influence exerted by chart following money managers has clowded the issue to the point that industrial silver users may have trouble procuring their raw material before the so-called price determining futures market clearly sees that there is very little silver left.
This, to me, is the biggest question. How much silver, in acceptable, deliverable form still exists in the world. Not coins, jewelry or grandma's tea set but acceptable, ready for delivery silver? Also who holds these ever shrinking supplies and at what price will they part with it??? I can find numbers for yearly production or supply and for useage or demand. These show an ongoing deficit- for years! What no one seems to know is how much was there, at any specific time in the near past, from which to calculate what is left. Some analysts insist the world actually ran out some years ago! That there is no price rationing with an ongoing deficit defies all the common sense and laws of supply and demand, again, the laws that apply to a free market. When Buffet's forecast of the market returning to price equilibrium, what price will it be? What a great puzzle!
Rich

A Canadian

(02/19/2002; 18:23:49 MDT - Msg ID: 70421)

Canadian Bull Charging!!!!!!

After hearing of vicious lies being spread by EVIL CABAL I IMMEDIATELY purchased 2 more ounces of physical and increased my position in a south african DREAMHOLE.(decided not to pay the rent.)
Result? Jap markets continue declining, Gold rebounds in OZ! (We canucks can be shrewd manipulators.)

Canuck

(02/19/2002; 19:44:24 MDT - Msg ID: 70422)

Weird POG action

I had a good stare at the 3-day Kitco curve and don't understand what happened today.

Sunday night, all day Monday (while US on holiday) and all day today gold floats about listlessly within a relatively tight range.

I find it extremely interesting that the action between 08:30 and 11:45 for Monday and Tuesday is identical with the exception that New York was closed Monday. Why would that be? Seems rather odd.

It appears that NY had/has no impact on the price of gold. Does this odd observation co-incide with the fact the NY has perpetual early closing of its gold trading. Is it a co-incidence that these 'gold bullion' desks have migrated to London?

Gold was making a nice run from 10:00 am on both days except that today at 11:45 hell was released, interesting again, that both markets were open, was it London, was it NY or was it the 'third party, red herring' German announcement. Can the announcement be confirmed at 11:45/11:50 as the Kitco graph suggests?

We hear more and more of the non-manipulation discussion. Opinion now suggests it it not 'manipulation' of the gold price, the 'management' of the price of gold is now commonly referred to as 'common sense'. Well sure it is, if gold takes off, everything attached to paper will spontaneously burst into flames. So let's get out a very thick thesauras and 'invent' all kinds of descriptives for what's going on.

I bought a new 'thesauras' today written by Mr. Pissed Off Gold Investor. It describes today's 'management' activity as BULLSHIT. Apparently, a 'tradeable physical commodity', in a decade long term supply/demand deficit that has experienced a genuine technical uptick is subject to a moron or group of morons suddenly realizing, after a week of flat trading, that their position is too long and wish to 'dump' or threat to dump enormus quantities of this item on the market.

Yes, this is common sense all right. Let's see, I hold some gold, it is up 20 bucks and I stand up and declare to the world that "..if you guys continue to make me money I will stop that by flooding the market.."

All right, so they are protecting their paper, fine. These clowns use their 'million' dollars worth of gold to 'battle' huge loses in 'billions' worth of paper. Well, 2 things are going to come out of this, IHMO. When the 'gold well' runs dry, the fight to preserve paper will take on panic proportions. Judging from todays frantic, open and obvious 'management' GOLD DAY draws near. The other option which I beginning to 'smell' is that an entity has been quietly (maybe not so quietly) accumulating the yellow and is in position to liquidate US paper.

Japan's citizens have been hoarding and doesn't it seem bizarre that Japanese government has allowed this to continue. How much gold does anyone really have?

So Mr. Bush is in Tokyo jawing with the man. I wonder if the Japanese PM has told Mr. Bush that the gambit is up?
Now I have never studied Japanese culture but I suspect that after 10 years of smoldering, depreciating paper and thoughts of full-blown fire that the Japanese have prepared. It seems their nature.

I don't know if Mr. Bush has left Japan yet but it seems all too co-incidental that the markets take a whacking the day after. I see the Nikkei down a touch presently, the DOW futures down 160 and it is far too early to tell but maybe Mr. Bush didn't impress upon the PM enough to continue to endorse the American way.

Black Blade

(02/19/2002; 19:46:04 MDT - Msg ID: 70423)

Bundesbank comment shakes gold bulls on COMEX

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020219/n19548544_1.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK, Feb 19 (Reuters) - COMEX gold tumbled Tuesday after European Central Bank council member Ernst Welteke raised the prospect of eventual German bullion reserve sales under a 1999 agreement capping European central bank gold selling. Welteke, who is also head of the German Bundesbank was quoted in an interview to run Wednesday on Bloomberg Television saying ``I could imagine that we slowly sell some of this gold and reinvest the revenue in assets that pay an interest.''

The German central bank owns about 3,500 tonnes of gold reserves, according to estimates by Gold Fields Mineral Services. That makes it the second largest official holder behind the United States, with more that 8,000 tonnes. ``The whole move was on the Bundesbank story,'' said a harried floor broker. Volume was a brisk 35,000 contracts. The comment by Welteke was particularly surprising because Germany, along with France and the United States had previously come out against selling, although it recently completed the sale of about 12 tonnes for a Deutschemark gold coin program.

Black Blade: Maybe it's time for a certain ECB member to retire. This dweeb and Dim Wim make quite a pair. It is very possible that the Euro will be a failure and the Gold backing will come in very handy.

Black Blade

(02/19/2002; 19:55:42 MDT - Msg ID: 70424)

Canuck - See My Post #70333

I was afraid of something like this. The POG could not hold above $300/oz. for a solid week. The POG was breaking down and it did not take much to collapse the trading range. I had hoped that Asia would resurrect the POG support level. Instead some buffoon at the ECB thought it would be cute to start a rumor that Germany may sell off Gold reserves, and equally stupid market traders believed him in spite of the WA agreement. We will have to see if the Japanese begin to cover their tails as April 1st approaches and if the Indians will make purchases on the dips. Cheers!

- Black Blade

BTW, locked in profits on HGMCY and GOLD, but not on GG. Still have solid positions in all three - though as far as HGMCY and GOLD it is a free ride from here on out (recovered all my cost basis and then some).

Black Blade

(02/19/2002; 20:08:43 MDT - Msg ID: 70425)

Argentines Try To Recover Savings

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/020219/argentina_1.html
Argentine Try Legal Measures to Recover Savings in U.S. Dollars

Snippit:

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP) -- Hundreds of Argentines lined up outside the country's main courthouse Tuesday, hoping to recover their frozen savings by filing lawsuits against a government-ordered banking freeze. Argentines with savings in U.S. dollars are racing to legally challenge a government decree that would switch their bank accounts over to devalued pesos -- a move set to take place at the end of the month.

``This is government-sponsored thievery,'' Ernesto Ratier said as he waited outside a federal courthouse to file suit. ``It took me 10 years to build up my $50,000 in savings. I deposited dollars, and I want those dollars.''

Black Blade: Gee, welcome to the Real World. It's a little late now. Should've saved in Gold.

AUtistic

(02/19/2002; 20:11:03 MDT - Msg ID: 70426)

BlackBlade#70423

Either by the US press delineation of parts of the quote, or by a differing quote(manipulation) by LeMetropole Cafe, opinions are being developed. One quote seemed VERY bullish on gold, but the main steam quote was VERY bearish! What the HELL good are quotes anymore, when words are twisted & spun like sugar into cotten candy?????

Black Blade

(02/19/2002; 20:15:05 MDT - Msg ID: 70427)

Strong Dollar Tough for Manufacturers

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/020219/strong_dollar_1.html
Strong U.S. Dollar Making It Hard for Manufacturers to Export Their Goods, Trade Group Says

Snippit:

WASHINGTON (AP) -- At least 400,000 U.S. factory workers have lost their jobs since August 2000 because of a sharp drop in U.S. exports largely due to a strong U.S. dollar, according to the country's biggest manufacturers. The group is urging the Bush administration to change its policies on the high-flying U.S. currency.

Black Blade: Strong Dollar = Unemployment. The "Bone Pile" continues to grow. Welcome to the New Depression.

mikal

(02/19/2002; 20:32:38 MDT - Msg ID: 70428)

Re: Volatility

Todays NY POG close down of less than 2% seems volatile compared to typical closes in recent years. But I shake off the old habit of seeing tame markets: A) Most years prior to the late '90's had much greater trading ranges, trading excitement, and interest. B) All respected gold analysts and pundits, including our host, MK, and many Knights, foresaw volatility steadily returning true to its old form, until market equilibrium is established. Rumor driven swings were commonplace, and will play a large part in price setting for at least a couple more years. At least as long as paper markets permit exploitation of POG, such as todays clean up by the shorts of the longs. Bullion bank short covering enmasse today, no doubt another reason for todays "volatility"- but just a drop in the bucket of what is to come.

Black Blade

(02/19/2002; 21:01:58 MDT - Msg ID: 70429)

Educated, Experienced and Out of Unemployment Checks

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/02/19/nyregion/19JOBL.html?ex=1014786000&en=f51784d1d4ff1ab0&ei=5001∂ner=YAHOO
Snippit:

They feel forgotten, frantic, financially drained. They are out-of-work New Yorkers whose unemployment insurance benefits are running out after six months of fruitless job hunting. And many of them belong to a surprising group: experienced, college-educated professionals who worked in Manhattan.

Black Blade: Interesting article. Of course there are always the pimps of Wall Street who bleat that economic recovery is "just around the corner". Yeah, right. Better get prepared.

Max Rabbitz

(02/19/2002; 21:24:30 MDT - Msg ID: 70430)

WAKE UP GANDALF

My GCG2 guess is *****291.5*****

After much pointless thought and some strategic delay I retreated to my own brand of technical analysis. I drew two lines on the chart, one line through the one year trend and the other through the one day trend. Where they bisect is my guess. Don't wizards normally give 3 guesses???

Gandalf the White

(02/19/2002; 21:36:00 MDT - Msg ID: 70431)

The COMEX February '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST

Sorry Max -- You are confusing Wizards with Genies ! <;-)UPDATE !!!
===
UNAVAILABLE ( because of prior claim ) ENTRY !!
****$319.9**** Henri (02/17/02; 07:32:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 70239)
Please enter again, Sir Henri !!
===

THE RULES (revisited) --
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of
(GC2G) on the date of Friday the 22th of February.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "stars" *****
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as *****$543.2*****
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, Feb. 21th.
6) A short "WHY" discussion paragraph should accompany your prognostication.
GOOD LUCK ALL !

Carl H

(02/19/2002; 22:20:44 MDT - Msg ID: 70432)

violation of bidding rules during recent Treasury bill auctions

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20020220/bs_nm/finance_treasury_violation_dc_2&cid=580Snippet:

...
"We have an investigation that deals with fraudulent purchases of Treasury securities from the Department of Treasury's securities auction," said Jim Mackin, a Secret Service spokesman, who declined to discuss the investigation further.

In auctions held the week of Feb. 4, a single bidder submitted noncompetitive tenders for Treasury bills and notes worth $905 million through the TreasuryDirect electronic system but did not pay for them, even though the bids were accepted, officials told reporters.
...

CarlH: This seems really weird. This sounds like enough of a violation to change the prices at the auction. Smells like someone was in derivatives trouble and bluffed their way out. They do not say who the guilty party is. Given the hits that they have taken recently, it would not surprise me if it were JP Morgan Chase.

Waverider

(02/19/2002; 23:37:37 MDT - Msg ID: 70433)

Bundesbank nails gold

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B248256B6500757331?OpenDocumentSnippit:
"Weeks of bullish sentiment and strong fundamentals in the gold market were wiped out in a single stroke last night by president of Germany's Bundesbank Ernst Welteke. The governor said in an interview with Bloomberg that the German central bank would diversify its assets away from gold, a move which analysts say will mercilessly drive down the price of bullion."

Waverider: Would anyone mind, please, to comment on this article. I expected volatility - I've no problem with a rough ride, but I found this article somewhat discouraging. They're talking the possibility of the European banks keeping their thumbs on the price until 2016. Thoughts?

TEX

(02/20/2002; 00:42:18 MDT - Msg ID: 70434)

Bad Timing

Dang it.....been out of town and away from the gold charts. I have been waiting two and a half years to sell off that 289/oz gold cause I just know its going to briefly go a little lower sooner than later. Here it was at 300/oz and I miss my chance. Dip down you nasty DOW, slump more you ugly NASDAQ, die you lowlife dollar and spike up you wonderful gold so I can sell. Then.....gold, dip down again so I can buy a little lower and feel at ease for the next upward spike. I love that roller coaster ride. Hey, its better than the stock market for sure!

Wky_Woodsman

(02/20/2002; 01:08:19 MDT - Msg ID: 70435)

Contest

*****289.4*****

Looks like an area that it will be boxed for awhile. Thinking that it is still accumulating time for now.
Wky_Woodsman

ski

(02/20/2002; 01:57:11 MDT - Msg ID: 70436)

Do ALL silver producers hedge?

Black Blade 2/15/02 20:43 #70168

Black Blade your above post:
"On the other hand I see the silver producers have ALL sold forward to the extreme (except First Silver Reserve)"

One of us must have incorrect information on the above. There are generally two classes of silver producers: by-product silver producers (many) and primary silver producers (few). There are 7 primary silver producers listed on the GE silver website. Two of them, SIL and SSRI own silver properties but do not even have an operational mine and have nothing to sell forward. Two more, CDE and PAAS, have stated year after year in their annual reports that they have no silver hedges and are not planning to hedge.

I will leave it to you to clarify this issue ... Thanks in advance for your response.

Knallgold

(02/20/2002; 02:35:37 MDT - Msg ID: 70437)

BuBa

"That's the alarm ringing in the central banks; not in my office." CM

A statement to the point!Maybe the Bundesbank has to declare the "Westpoint" Gold as lost.Altough I know FOA said Germany still owns its Yellow.

It seems likely since some time that the WA will be extended after 2004.As to the right timing of the sale:in two years,with POG at 5000 euros or so,maybe it IS okay to cash in some...
As to the better performing assets,imagine hyperinflation and bonds at 20% !

Gold to tha people! Let them make lots of Eurolander coins for us.It is in better hands that way.

But so far,IT IS ONLY A FURTHER INFLATION OF THE PAPER GOLD MARKET.

And from now on,lets pronounce socialism and a failing paper (Gold) concept always in the same sentence.Welteke is a socialist, so is WEichel and Schroeder-not-getting-a-blue-letter-weakening-the-euro.

Socialism/ists is/are an untolerable burden to the euro."The euro will be a success,make no doubt" (Pandagold)-ergo ...!

Black Blade

(02/20/2002; 04:22:02 MDT - Msg ID: 70438)

Ski - Silver Hedges

First Silver Reserve is both profitable and unhedged. This puts them in a class by themselves. However, in response to your question I was referring to primary silver producers.

Even though SIL will be a primary Zinc-Lead producer at San Cristobo (the future flagship operation), they have other projects such as some small Gold mine operations. SIL states in their 10Q: "We would expect to balance the use of price-hedging techniques to mitigate some of the risks associated with fluctuations in the prices of the metals produced, while allowing us to take advantage of rising metal prices should they occur". They are currently engaged in metals trades and presumably that includes various hedge agreements.

SSRI has no producing Silver operations. Looking at the balance sheet, it is obvious that they will hedge for financing startup costs same as SIL. I could not find a 10Q listed.

CDE has a small hedging program. Last quarter they had recently made some adjustments to the call option portion of their hedging program as noted in their 10Q. Though that may refer mostly to their forward sold position in Gold or perhaps both Gold and Silver. Note that they are still trying to recover lost inventory of Silver when Handy and Harman (the refiners) went tits up.

As far as PAAS, I am not aware if they still have a hedging program in place. I may be in error on this, however, I seem to recall mention of a silver hedging program at the time of the Dukat project debacle in Russia a couple of years ago when the Russian company Polymetal badly burned them (now their Russian partner). However, I now see that Pan American claims to have "no outstanding hedge positions in any metal" listed on their web site. Perhaps a new development or maybe I was mistaken. Thanks for pointing that out. I'll put it on my watch list. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(02/20/2002; 04:41:50 MDT - Msg ID: 70439)

BOJ asked Koizumi to look at help for banks -media

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020219/t133125_4.html
Snippit:

TOKYO, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Masaru Hayami has urged Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi to consider steps to stabilise financial markets, including a possible injection of public funds to shore up fragile banks, Japanese media said on Wednesday.

Black Blade: I see that they have no choice. Word is that some major bank failures are imminent. The banks are insolvent and the major reason for the withdrawal of savings deposit insurance id that the government does not want to be exposed for the coming massive defaults and bank closures. Now the BOJ is screaming for help. Japanese housewives may be flocking to the bullion dealers very soon.

News just out this morning - Computer Associates is being probed by the SEC for (you guessed it) - questionable accounting practices.

Black Blade

(02/20/2002; 04:49:35 MDT - Msg ID: 70440)

Computer Associates Under Scrutiny

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020220/business_tech_computerassociates_report__1.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Federal prosecutors have opened a preliminary inquiry into whether Computer Associates International Inc. (NYSE:CA) deliberately overstated its profits to inflate its stock price and enrich its senior executives, the New York Times reported on Wednesday.

Since October 2000, the Islandia, N.Y.-based software company has reported its financial results using a nonstandard ''pro forma'' accounting practice that makes its profits and sales seem much larger than under standard accounting rules, the Times said.

Former employees have said that Computer Associates began using pro forma accounting because it had run out of ways to inflate its results under standard accounting rules and had to find a new method, the Times said.

Black Blade: More Enrons coming outta the woodwork.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(02/20/2002; 05:37:04 MDT - Msg ID: 70441)

Your great-grandfather carried one, now you can, too!

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

U.S. Liberty $10 Eagle
$10 Liberty

A "Premium" Opportunity

Call Centennial for details, or order online.
1-800-869-5115

Narroway Walk

(02/20/2002; 05:58:27 MDT - Msg ID: 70442)

Black Blade: You Said.....

Last night you mentioned that you thought unemployment was actually running around 8 to 9%
Well I respect you very much and always read your posts giving great weight to your analysis but I feel it's important to jump in at this juncture. tI'd encourage you to be careful with the numbers for the sake of ongoing credibility, not with me so much but rather with the casual lurkers. Where I live, Philly suburbs, the economy is still very strong and shopping is robust. Perhaps people aren't buying at quite the rate on the big ticket stuff but the stores are full of people with that resolute "shop-till-I-drop"look in their eye. Also, I personally don't know a single person who is out of work. I do firmly believe in the macro-economic view of Prechter at Elliott wave Int. for a deep depression of "grand supercycle degree". It all seems to come together for me intellectually but am still waiting to see the proof with my eyes at least in my area. Keep up the good work my e-friend.

TownCrier

(02/20/2002; 05:59:31 MDT - Msg ID: 70443)

Two noteworthy items from WGC Rhonna O'Connell's remarks today

http://www.gold.org/------------After dropping towards support at $292 in New York yesterday in the wake of an interview with Bundesbank President Ernst Welteke, in which the question was raised of the possibility of future gold sales, the market has been well supported since. The Bundesbank has this morning delivered a statement to Reuters as follows:

"We are still abiding by the central bank gold agreement of 1999. We have no plans for the immediate future to sell large amounts of gold".

The Bundesbank is a signatory to the Washington Agreement on Gold (which was signed in 1999 and expires in September 2004). The gold market is confident that the Agreement will be renewed thereafter, and thus that any official sector sales under such an agreement would be orderly and not disruptive. The Bundesbank last year sold 12 tonnes of gold for the minting of the Deutsche Bundesbank commemorative coin, and will provide a further 11 tonnes this year for the minting of a gold Euro coin to celebrate "Euro Day" in May. Both of these sales fall within the auspices of the Washington Agreement.------------

And she also reports on the latest developments on the gold support program of the Zimbabwe Reserve Bank that we reported on last year when it was first initiated.

--------The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe is reported to have raised its floor price for gold and to have introduced a Gold Fund for struggling producers. The floor price has been raised from US$430/ounce to US$434.3/ounce.-----------

(Pssssst... If you're looking to buy, you'll be happy to know you can currently get your gold from USAGOLD/Centennial much cheaper than that!)

R.

nickel62

(02/20/2002; 05:59:47 MDT - Msg ID: 70444)

Dracula has noticed that the blood is HIV positive and has decided to drink less!

UPDATE 1-Barrick to emphasize spot sales, mulls asset swaps
February 15, 2002 6:48:00 PM ET

(Adds details throughout from Canada conference call)

By Lesley Wroughton

TORONTO, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Barrick Gold Corp. said on Friday it will not increase its gold forward sales program amid a bullish outlook for gold prices and low interest rates, but will put more emphasis on spot sales.

The world's second-largest gold producer said as it released fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday that it would cut the portion of output it delivers into its hedging program to 50 percent at $365 an ounce, from 61 percent, with the balance sold at spot prices.

The company's hedge book at Dec. 31 included 18.2 million ounces in spot deferred contracts, or 22 percent of reserves. This includes 1.9 million ounces from Homestake Mining Co., a U.S. rival it bought last year for $2.3 billion.

The full book, which also includes short call options and other contracts, had a mark-to-market of $356 million at the end of the quarter -- up from $213 million in the third quarter.

Mr Gresham

(02/20/2002; 06:05:45 MDT - Msg ID: 70445)

Hall of Fame Nomination: miner49er #70211

miner49er (02/16/02; 18:49:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 70211)

What was I thinking! (Or not thinking.) It took waking up in the middle of the night, lying awake an hour thinking of various nothings, pondering getting out of bed to do some computer work while the house is quiet, then thought about some tax-deferred investments (college 529 plans) for someone, and realized "THIS reminds me of something; something I meant to get back to."

That something was miner49er's dissection on Saturday of "Financial Arbitrage Socialism -- the next New Deal". The creation of various financial "products" both short and long-term, which by their very existence buoy support for the dollar, and especially the idea of "targeted savings".

It was praised that day by USAGOLD (#70214), Sir Cavan Man (#70215), Sir Canuck (#70218), Sir Belgian (#70232), and myself, in which I commented:

"That was some fine, original, and inspiring work! I think you've opened up some new vistas for students of "money" and even for Doug Noland, with his catalogues of "financial claims" abounding, who could pick up a few new ones he hadn't thought of. You really are peering behind the curtain, and pointing to the system's use of the dimension of Time (something "they ain't makin' anymore of") to buy off people's expectations in the present. "

Might we turn these posts of praise into the three necessary seconds for the HOF nomination?

Excerpts below for the lazy ;) but go read the original of Saturday 2/16. It's worth it for the literary inclusions alone.

"...Savings as discussed here, is not savings. It is a loan to the bank. ...You may have used your "savings" to loan to them, but it is a loan nonetheless. Deposit is a terribly misleading term. ...

"The premium you pay for the additional benefits (tax favored treatment, matching funds, etc.) are that you have time and usage constraints. Upon maturity of the obligations, you must still obtain goods and services -- even the targeted ones -- at current prices. Your bet is that the marginal benefits of preparing for these expenses, via these vehicles, will be greater in relation to alternative possibilities. ...

"If I'm reading between the lines correctly, I perceive the U.S. Central Bank is quite well aware that they have wrung all the blood and plasma out of this stone, and are beginning a shift to a "new alchemy." ...

"Traditionally, we have tried to instill the currency unit itself with value by way of commodities, or people's productivity, or even hyper-efficient transaction utility (the use value required by big money arbitrageurs, et al.). We then hope that the currency unit can hold its value by these mechanisms in terms of future procurement of goods and services.

"What if we could promise the goods or services, deliverable in the future, at today's prices, instead of guaranteeing the accounting instrument? ...

"If we take the forward concept away from the framework of corn and pork-bellies, and the lay-away concept away from Walmart and Target, and apply the thinking to the purchase of old-age care, medical expenses, college tuition, and the like, we do have a new variation on a theme. Indeed, the accounting instrument will assume, of its own, stability vis-�-vis the things it is contracted to buy. (Ah, the wonders of fiat...)

[Too much good stuff here to include it all...]

"...And as currency is want to do, its notional backing would face constant debasement. Practically speaking, the quality of the tuition eventually received would not be what we expected.

"Why would people enter into such arrangements? Because, unhappily, people are possessed of the good and bad quality of child-like trust in their governing institutions. ...

"...They have been effectively discouraged from saving gold. They sense a need to hoard in the face of escalating prices, so why not provide them something to hoard, that is still yet defined in terms of a financial asset? Governments would buy the idea as it serves to remove much of the financial burden from a whole host of social programs. Yet it does so without causing the bureaucracy to relinquish their coveted control of these same programs. Financing companies would welcome the idea, as it would provide both a new game to play, and a fresh fix of funds to play with.

"I mentioned there was another less conventional way to approach the financing of this concept. Let's look at it now. In the contract concept just mentioned, the contract still ultimately depends upon the fate of its denominating instrument (the dollar). The funds used to purchase the contract disappear immediately into the world of whithersoever-they-will, no longer coupled to the future deliverable. In contrast, this second approach attempts to maintain this coupling. In doing so, the possibility exists to create a new "special-purpose" currency vehicle altogether. Instead of the buyer effectively buying forward a future deliverable, he instead sets up an account somewhat similar to an IRA conceptually. The goal is again targeted savings. Only this time the deposited funds belong to the depositor, and remain associated to the deliverable.

[Gresham: Y'know, I was trying just to excerpt here, but every paragraph keeps delivering a punch...]

"Why targeted savings? Two reasons. First, this helps ensure these funds stay under the control of the financing institutions - as they remain financial assets, and do not find their way into real goods and services purchased currently. This would cause the fated exposure of the tenuousness of the financial assets relative to escalating consumer prices. Second, (really the same thing, just another way of expressing it) it transfers the feared unknowns of where these currency units may ultimately alight as value stores in the public's mind (commodity and goods hoarding), and polarizes them to a defined future deliverable (which is still presently negotiated as a financial asset).

"The nature of the deliverables must be such that they can readily be redefined. They must also be in high and inelastic demand. Services such as health care, old-age care, and education suit these purposes quite well.

"In this method, since the originating funds still belong to the depositor, these funds effectively become part of the financial institutions reserves. Since these funds are earmarked for the purchase of an appreciating asset, at a fixed price, they acquire extra value, and can be lent at a premium. Such accounts can also find liquidity by being rolled up together with similar instruments, and diced-and-spliced according to the wants of the marketplace. The service ultimately provided, as in the method above, will be inferior to what the buyer hoped for, but he will most likely receive it nominally anyway.

"What is different here is that the funds involved take on a life of their own so long as they are traveling in this new savings vehicle. As long as the funds are tied to an inelastic and high demand future deliverable, they, like Oisin above, in a land of eternal youth, retain their youthful vigor.

"Do we not now have a new "virtual asset" backed currency that can travel side-by-side with our other fiat currencies, including the old and mortal dollar? Could this new currency not be used as tender in our daily transactions (bread, butter, and beer), and thus add new life to the entire U.S. dollar regime? By providing a confidence of a value store to a daily use currency issued by the U.S. dollar faction, is not the incentive to move to gold taken away yet again from domestic participants? And, hopefully, could this not entice global speculators to stay for one more drink and one more dance, too?

"As far as complicating restrictions on the premature withdrawal or termination of these accounts, perhaps no more would be required than that they would be nominally exchanged for old-fashioned mortal dollars. And like the tragic Oisin, once so much as haymouse brushing earth's pebbles, these special-vehicle dollars, suspended in youth, would return to their proper age and strength, to purchase whatever they may command in that day.

"Will people actually go for this? For all the reasons listed earlier, yes of course. Will they accept an inferior future product - the inevitable outcome of such schemes? They already do with traditional socialism - for which they still clamor - even with its track record of inefficiency. Would people not be likely to accept a more efficient, cost-effective way to get the same thing? Especially, if they feel they have more "control" of the outcome... They "save" today in tax-deferred retirement accounts for all its worth because they believe unquestioningly in the integrity of the unit that accounts their "savings." Even as they watch their so-called savings evaporate before their eyes. Very few have any knowledge at all about what they are doing. Why would I expect people to behave any differently here? Cynical perhaps, but pragmatic...

"So, welcome to the "New Alchemy." But if you have a choice, I suggest you reject alchemy altogether and just buy gold - the real thing - while it's still selling at give-away prices."

Gresham: Of all the posts that should not just "disappear down the memory hole" this one holds pre-eminence. With all we have learned here to dissect financial shenanigans, and to read the storm clouds coming over the horizon, this one steers us to apply what we have learned and developed here to something new (whether or not they ever get to fully implement it before an implosion) and should be read and re-read in the years ahead.

Christian

(02/20/2002; 06:10:15 MDT - Msg ID: 70446)

Off Balance Sheet Financing

What is stopping anyone from leasing silver or gold or anything else and have it in a contract that the leased gold or silver be sold only to the leaser. Most banks in my area do just that. All is off balance sheet financing. MBNA does it. Bank of England has been doing it since its start up. What is there to stop anyone from leasing and buying the same metal back again and again and again.

nickel62

(02/20/2002; 06:12:38 MDT - Msg ID: 70447)

Narrow Way and Black Blade My informal observations

I work in the northern suburbs of Philadelphia for part of my business and have noticed the same persistent strength that you mentioned. But I also live and work in Baltimore MD just a hundred miles south of Philadelphia. There the dominant mall in the area north of the city has over a fifth of it's stores closed and the anchor tennent or Nordstorm about to close it's store. This is surprising since the suburbs north of the city such as the Towson area are central to where most of the wealthiest people in Baltimore live and that a major mall is seeing such glaring vacancies is alarming. I have a business that puts me in touch with many different types of people and many are out of work. The hotel, limosine,office furniture, securities and financial services industries as well as travel related areas of the small business community has been particularly hard hit. The rather unusual nature of this recession is that many companies are still seeing strength as the low interest rates are still causing the housing market to perk along in this area as many sell their homes or refinance to raise money to weather a loss of their jobs. It is a mixed picture clearly but one that has just begun to unravel in many areas.

Cavan Man

(02/20/2002; 07:18:29 MDT - Msg ID: 70448)

Mr. Gresham

I second for HOF miner49er #70211

Waverider

(02/20/2002; 07:44:55 MDT - Msg ID: 70449)

Bad debts threaten credit card issuers

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3IJAQJWXC&live=trueSnippit:
"Solid consumer spending may be helping the US economy to avoid a longer and deeper recession, but it has pushed consumer debt levels to 14-year highs and sub-prime credit card companies may face considerable problems.

"Sub-prime issuers are having a difficult time reflecting what is happening among lower-income families, where debt levels are at record highs and unemployment is rising," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com, an online economics research group.

Because consumer loans lag behind unemployment, which is expected to peak in mid-2002, credit quality is expected to continue worsening for the rest of this year.

Analysts say the severity of the credit squeeze will become clearer in the next four to eight weeks.

The bulk of personal bankruptcy filings tend to occur in March and April because people take on debt before Christmas, start to struggle in January and February and then give up trying."

Waverider: Not exactly an indication of impending economic recovery...

Goldilocks 1

(02/20/2002; 08:11:44 MDT - Msg ID: 70450)

(No Subject)

*****298.0*****

Black Blade

(02/20/2002; 09:01:40 MDT - Msg ID: 70451)

Narroway Walk and Nickel62

Sorry I couldn't get back to you sooner, I was at the gym.

The unemployment numbers were in a range quoted by Forbes report a few weeks ago. The number of unemployed that are quoted by the BLS on Thursdays are the new filings and on Fridays the numbers are representative of the prior month's unemployed. As those unemployed run out of benefits they are no longer counted as unemployed. I know that it sounds absurd but then government statisticians are either rather dim bulbs or are just dishonest. Some statistics are massaged data using bogus statistical filters such as "seasonal adjustment". Remember these are the same dim bulbs that came up with "hedonic" deflators. When a statistical series has been seasonally adjusted, "the normal seasonal fluctuations are smoothed out and data for any month can be more meaningfully compared with data from any other month or with an annual average". In other words they lie by fudging the data. The unemployment data calculations were substantially revised in 1994 (no kidding!). These revisions mean that we are not likely to see a real meaningful presentation on unemployment or under employment data - possibly due to political considerations.

According to Katharine G. Abraham, Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner 1994, in BLS report 864: "Some people think that to get these figures on unemployment the Government uses the number of persons filing claims for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits under State or Federal Government programs. But some people are still jobless when their benefits run out, and many more are not eligible at all or delay or never apply for benefits. Indeed, typically less than a third of the unemployed file claims for UI benefits. So, quite clearly, UI information cannot be used as a source for complete information on the number of unemployed". Does this mean that the unemployment rate isn't just 5.6%, but rather 16.8% (5.6% X 3)? They also rely on a poll of a randomly selected sample of 60,000 Americans every month. Reliable data? Hmmm...

Some areas of the country and certain occupations are perhaps more likely to experience higher rates of unemployment than others. I know several unemployed and under employed in Northern California, Idaho, and Nevada. There have also been reports of unemployment funds running short of cash (especially in Texas). There is a push in Congress and in the administration to extend unemployment benefits 13 weeks longer (opposed by some in Congress).

We read about dot.comers and Techies from Silicon Valley (Bay Area) to New York who are unemployed. We also read about those on Wall Street who are slashing their rolls. We also read about the severe problems in the tourism industry (heck there are even rooms available in Utah near the venues during the Olympics and the casinos in Las Vegas and Atlantic City are hurting). Detroit and other auto manufacturing centers are laying off workers or working much shorter weeks.

We read about one company after another filing for bankruptcy (Enron, Kmart, Global Crossing, Kaiser Aluminum, etc.) or just shutting down factories (such as Boeing). Airlines are on the ropes and even United Airlines may have to go tits up next year unless business picks up or they get bailed out. Some banks are on the ropes as well. Providian and Fleet Financial look rather sickly.

I remember when I lived in Allentown, PA and Mack Truck closed up. I knew many who were out of work. Many other locations around the country did not experience the same problems. I see that US Steel and Bethlehem Steel are practically abandoned as well. I don't know how the region of Eastern PA is faring these days. However, much of the rest of the country is experiencing a severe recession/depression. Go to most any small town or city in the Western US and you may find the situation to be more dire. Actually the number of unemployed may even exceed 10%. We may only be able to guess beyond that as the BLS will not account for those who can find employment or who have given up.

I could go into detail about the data collection from selected polls and the BLS statistical methodology used and how different regression techniques are used for various models in some of the smaller states and D.C., but we don't have that much bandwidth here. It is a horrifically long report. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Gimli_

(02/20/2002; 09:03:06 MDT - Msg ID: 70452)

No more "elves" on "Wall Street Week" signals nastier markets.... exodus!

http://www.trendmacro.com/a/guest/goodman/20020220goodman.aspBye-bye Market, Bye-bye Elves
Wednesday, February 20, 2002
Fred Goodman

Fred thinks it could get nastier here -- and notes that the "elves" of Wall Street Week seem to have capitulated right off the air.

Of the three falling markets, only the NASDAQ fell on increasing volume. We could be in store for a very nasty decline on increasing volume.

As the market declines there is more and more discussion about "capitulation," the mass exodus at the end of a decline. There has been entirely too much optimism displayed by the public, but especially by the professional "gurus," like Abbey Joseph Cohen and others who frequent Wall Street Week on PBS. I noticed the other night that the "Elves" have been eliminated from the show. I guess the heat got too high since they have been bullish for two years without exception, something like 10 bulls to 2 neutral and none bearish. Oh well, they won't be missed.

The only way out of the current decline is for there to be a little rally on lower volume followed by a bigger rally on higher volume. I really don't look for it to start today, or even, for that matter, this week. In any case, when it comes, we'll be ready for a dip into the ETF's, probably SPY and DIA, only a slight possibility of the QQQ's. It's far too soon on my calendar for long term commitments to mutual funds. The ETFs permit one to get in and out with the least cost and the most speed. Just right for now.....

Waverider

(02/20/2002; 09:05:24 MDT - Msg ID: 70453)

Dangerous yen

http://atimes.com/japan-econ/DB20Dh01.htmlSnippit:
"As the yen keeps on weakening to the cheers of clueless
Japanese politicians hoping for an export-led recovery and studied inaction by the country's central bank, Japan's neighbors are not amused.

Since late 2000, in two (December 2000/January 2001 and December 2001/January) ratchet moves, the yen has lost about 21 percent against the US dollar. This controlled devaluation, which economic ministers say merely reflects market fundamentals, has done little for Japanese growth: Exports account for just 10 percent of GDP. But as the yen slide continues from the present 133 toward 140 to the dollar, it is continuing to erode the export competitiveness and growth potential of other Asian economies whose export dependencies range from China's 25 percent to Korea's 45 and Southeast Asia's more than 50 percent.

Waverider: Interesting article on the potential implications of a weakened yen on the Asian economies. Cheers!

Waverider

(02/20/2002; 09:26:06 MDT - Msg ID: 70454)

The Economic Dimension To The African Union

http://allafrica.com/stories/200202190408.htmlSnippit:
"This Issues Paper is intended to identify some of the principal issues surrounding African regional economic integration and the African Union. Economic integration in Africa is an imperative if the continent is to achieve its potential, and to participate on equal terms in the global economy.

The paper seeks to ask, what have been the political and economic factors that have propelled or hindered integration processes around the world? It looks both at the experience of other regions, including Europe, Asia and the Americas, and the history of attempts at economic integration and political unification in Africa. The final section focuses on the challenges of implementing the African Union."

Waverider: Very interesting article by initial quick preview. Gotta run... a great day to All. Cheers!

Narroway Walk

(02/20/2002; 09:51:22 MDT - Msg ID: 70455)

The Philly Incidental Indicator Black Blade Response

Thanks for the thoughtful and well done post in response to my concern. Even though 10% seems a bit high to me, and yes I don't get around the country to see, the news does seem to support the validity of the growing BonePile. Perhaps I sit on the ultimate incidental indicator which I'll call.....( I don't know)..lets just say maybe they do ring a bell at the top. The Liberty Bell. When the malls around here start to lose tennants and board up then we'll know.
And cheers to you too!

Gandalf the White

(02/20/2002; 10:22:30 MDT - Msg ID: 70456)

Second of Hall of Fame Nomination: miner49er #70211

Mr Gresham (2/20/02; 06:05:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 70445)
Might we turn these posts of praise into the three necessary seconds for the HOF nomination?
====
May I start out by being also a SECOND for this nomination!!
Tis been a while since the HOF entry door has been opened.
<;-)

(02/20/2002; 10:40:06 MDT - Msg ID: 70457)

More Pepto please!!!

The powers that be continue to give the patient (stock market) more and more pepto but eventually even that won't work. The patient got out of bed this morning but quickly realized that it better lie down before it got sick.
Looking at the daily/weekly charts on a lot of market 'leaders' tells me we are likely very close to some serious projectile vomiting!!! Gotta love it. Short stocks long gold!!!

G$

Gandalf the White

(02/20/2002; 10:45:11 MDT - Msg ID: 70458)

The COMEX February '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST

ONLY about 25 Hours to PLACE your "Bet" on the CONTEST !!UPDATE !!!

THE RULES (revisited) --
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of
(GC2G) on the date of Friday the 22th of February.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "stars" *****
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as *****$543.2*****
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, Feb. 21th.
6) A short "WHY" discussion paragraph should accompany your prognostication.
GOOD LUCK ALL !
----
UNAVAILABLE ( because of prior claim ) ENTRY !!

****$319.9**** Henri (02/17/02; 07:32:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 70239)
Please enter again, Sir Henri !!

Leigh

(02/20/2002; 10:50:22 MDT - Msg ID: 70459)

You just described our entire family's morning! I crept slowly and carefully downstairs to the computer room to check on you guys, and you're all doing great, so back to bed for me.

I can emphathize (sort of) with the stock market today!

Novice Bear

(02/20/2002; 10:51:47 MDT - Msg ID: 70460)

Contest

***** 291.8 *****

Because I'm a novice at predicting gold spot prices and
this is what the spot price was setting at earlier today.
Sorry, I can't be more scientific than this.

--Novice Bear

Gandalf the White

(02/20/2002; 11:00:44 MDT - Msg ID: 70461)

CONGRATULATIONS Sir Silvercollector !!

You have become the "FIRST BRACKETED" prognosticator !!****$292.0**** Grubstaker (02/14/02; 22:50:18MT msg#: 70083
****$291.9**** silvercollector (02/15/02; 16:41:09MT msg#: 70149
****$291.8**** Novice Bear (02/20/02; 10:51:47MT msg#: 70460
---
<;-)

sourdough

(02/20/2002; 11:05:24 MDT - Msg ID: 70462)

contest

********$293.60*******
World Governments manipulating supply to ensure continued Japanese buying while price hides the "plan" from other potential investors. Windfall profits will be used to kick start consumer led Japanese recovery.

jlfletc

(02/20/2002; 12:14:44 MDT - Msg ID: 70463)

Contest guess

****$293.30*****
I think POG will recover slightly by week end, but I think the past couple of days show the ferocity of the Paper Pushers and their agenda.

sector

(02/20/2002; 12:35:56 MDT - Msg ID: 70464)

Computer Associates and FBI Accounting Fraud Probe

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT39JOMAXXC&live=true&tagid=IXLI0L9Z1BC
CA shares fall on reports of FBI accounting probe
By Paul Abrahams in San Francisco and Joshua Chaffin in New York Published:
February 20 2002 14:58 | Last Updated: February 20 2002 18:42

Shares of Computer Associates tumbled 18 per cent by midday on Wednesday after media reports that the fourth-largest US software group was being investigated by the Federal Bureau of Investigation and US attorney's office for possible accounting fraud.
The move, reported in Newsday, a local New York newspaper, and the New York Times, is the latest in a series of investigations by authorities into alleged accounting irregularities, following the collapse of Enron, the energy trading group. Concerns that revenues and profits may have been overstated have proved a drag on the market in recent weeks.
The probe, reportedly in its initial stages, will look into whether the company properly separated software revenues from fees from services. It follows comments by a former CA employee who was contacted by the US attorney's office several weeks ago, according to the newspaper.
+++++++++++++++++++++

There are many, many more such FBI accounting fraud investigations on tap...maybe even at IBM and GE.

But not to worry! The DOW will stay elevated even as all its components fall.

uponroof

(02/20/2002; 12:48:26 MDT - Msg ID: 70465)

EPIDEMIC........."Unfortunately, the entire cart is rotten."

http://www.denverpost.com/Stories/0,1002,33%257E407694,00.html?search=filter"The sum total of S&P 500 companies are not generating cash. They are bleeding it," he said.

Company executives and Wall Street analysts have urged investors to focus on operating earnings, which are easier to manipulate, instead of net income - the profits shareholders actually claim, contends economist David Levy, chairman of the Levy Forecasting Center in New York.

His center's research estimates that companies in the S&P 500 have systematically overstated profits by at least 20 percent a year during the past decade and by 10 percent and more since 1982.

"The tendency is to view Enron in isolation as a seedy example - a bad apple," said Srinivas Thiruvadanthai, director of research at the Levy center. "Unfortunately, the entire cart is rotten."

snip>

"If enough investors realize the magnitude of profit overstatement and the erosive effect of investment costs on their bottom line, broad stock market returns for the next 10 years would likely wind up deeply in the red," he said.
********

btw-Russell is now saying the Dow and Gold will crossover at $3000.

Richman

(02/20/2002; 13:09:30 MDT - Msg ID: 70466)

contest guess

I believe we'll stay in this range thru maybe next week.....then it could be Katie Bar the Door.

****297.30****

Richman

Waverider

(02/20/2002; 13:33:41 MDT - Msg ID: 70467)

Third Second: Hall of Fame Nomination for Sir Miner49er #70211

My pleasure!

Mr Gresham

(02/20/2002; 14:13:26 MDT - Msg ID: 70468)

Sir sitesteward (if it be ye?): Three Seconds for HOF Nomination!

miner49er (02/16/02; 18:49:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 70211)

The post has received the necessary three seconds for consideration of inclusion into the Hall of Fame. It _has_ been a long time, Sir Gandalf! But the doors do not appear to be rusted shut ;)

Sir Cavan Man #70448
Sir Gandalf the White #70456
Lady Waverider (how sweet to so write that name!) #70467

Humble Pie

(02/20/2002; 14:35:45 MDT - Msg ID: 70469)

Gold Price picking contest

******$291.00****** The cabal still has the deck and will not give it up untill the last BOE sale.

Jon

(02/20/2002; 14:50:05 MDT - Msg ID: 70470)

Market UP gold DOWN

With all the comments about "Enronitis", misrepresented earnings, and the like, I can't help but wonder how these posters rationalize Dow up almost 200 today and gold down to 291. I most certainly don't understand. Does anyone? If so, FACTS please.

TownCrier

(02/20/2002; 15:07:06 MDT - Msg ID: 70471)

I'm pleased to see miner49er getting the attention merited by his comments

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Maestro.htmlThis past holiday weekend I had already secured his permission (be private e-mail) to use this commentary in a future one of my 'Golden Chalkboards', and I am more than happy to see it now being recognized by others at the Forum as worthy of the Hall of Fame, too.

For those who are arriving late to the "Miner Appreciation Society", you can read another recent fine piece of his insight at the URL above.

R.

Voyager

(02/20/2002; 15:23:12 MDT - Msg ID: 70472)

JON

I am as frustrated as you. Perhaps we need to be kept "in our place".

JPM hit a low of 28.39. Closed up .39 at 29.41. I guess 196 points on the Dow is what it takes to hold JPM up.

TownCrier

(02/20/2002; 15:26:12 MDT - Msg ID: 70473)

What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.htmlTo act prudently and efficiently requires knowledge and preparation. Equip yourself with information. Visit the link above.

USAGOLD

(02/20/2002; 15:42:52 MDT - Msg ID: 70474)

Congratulations Miner 49er. . . .Well Deserved!

Randy, send for the castle maintenance crew and have them bring plenty of oil. Oh my. . . .These doors are heavy. When's the last time we were in here? I've forgotten just how wonderful this Hall really is. So elegantly designed. Marie, what did we we do with that Gold Carpet?? It's got to be around here somewhere. Well. . . .Let's roll it out. . . . . . . . . We have a new entry to give its Place of Honor. How about over there, Randy?. . . .Near Aristotle's series. ...What a day. What a day, I tell you!! It's not every day we have a Hall entry. Randy, is there some way we can have them stop with those infernal trumpets and fanfare everytime we open this door??? My ears. I can only take so much of that sort of thing, as you know. And everytime something happens here. . .there's the trumpets!. . . . . . .Who's idea was it to have trumpeters anyway?. . . . .. . .. . ....Perhaps we can meet at the Table with the rest of the Knights and Ladies and discuss that. Can't we get StradMaster to play something soft and mellow on his violin?. . . . .I love the violin. So subtle. . . . . Understated. . . .Bach. . .yes, Let's make it Bach. . . .Just a thought.

(Scene fades. . . . .)

Miner 49er walks the Gold Carpet to place his post in the Hall of Fame to the sound of. . . . . trumpets.

Well, you can't everything, 'Niner.

silvercollector

(02/20/2002; 15:49:36 MDT - Msg ID: 70475)

Gandalf the White

Yes I see that I have been 'sandwiched', making my winning bid all the more worthy!

TownCrier

(02/20/2002; 15:54:38 MDT - Msg ID: 70476)

Hello Jon and Voyager

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^DJI&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=lIf we allow ourselves to step away from the mountain far enough to get a general lay of the land, this is what we see. (click link)

January 2000 looks like a watershed point, and on this side of that divide market players are treading on unfamiliar turf. Anybody would be hard pressed to make a valid call where the DOW will go in the medium term ((how many years is that???)), and my primary point on top of that is that the day-to-day ups and downs within the medium term trend are completely unpredictable and inexplicable. A guy might tear his hair out (or give himself an ulcer or heart attack) trying to "day trade" this thing...or even trying to make sense of it. (In a similar sense, we might ask why does a flock of birds or a school of fish zig and zag exactly as they are seen to do?)

Therefore, my recommedation to friends is to make your money the reliable, old fashioned way (through honest, productive effort) and then use those gains to provide meaningful security for a commensurately improved lifestyle.

R.

Bullrider

(02/20/2002; 15:56:11 MDT - Msg ID: 70477)

Investing in Gold/Silver: For the Birds?

Following is an essay I wrote recently for the good folks at Bill Murphy's website, LeMetropoleCafe.com. Although they never published it, I did post it the other night on another gold forum and it was very well received. Since many of you no doubt have not seen it yet, I'm posting it here, as well. As I am new to this forum, I'll simply ask your forbearance with me for the length of the essay, but I trust most of you will find it worth the read.

Thanks,

Bullrider

Through a circuitous turn of events, I was asked several weeks ago by some acquaintances of a friend of mine in my city of residence, San Antonio, Texas, if I would be willing to come out to New Mexico for a month or so and "housesit" their rock-and-log-cabin home in the mountains just east of Santa Fe. Since I recently left a small business I started some 7 years ago and have not proceeded on to the next "career," -- whatever that turns out to be! -- I agreed to do it. The cabin, originally built around 1940 as a blacksmith shop, is situated on about 100 acres in the middle of the piney woods which are so common throughout this beautiful region, and one of the pleasures of this little adventure, which began around January 20th, has been to enjoy the non-stop activity of the area's abundant wildlife.

Before the couple left the day I arrived, the woman asked me if I would try to keep their three birdfeeders full of seed, especially since there's still a lot of snow on the ground and it's pretty cold here in the mountains. Though I've never been much of a birdwatcher, the request seemed important to her and I told her I would make the effort to keep the feeders stocked. Although the three feeders, which hang in the trees only about 20 feet from the cabin's front door, were full the day the couple left, it only took two or three days for the local avian (and squirrel) populations to empty them. I've since filled them several more times, as I've now been here for about three weeks.

Today, however, after filling the emptied feeders once again, I came back inside the cabin, sat on the floor just inside the two French-style doors at the entrance and decided to simply observe. Native peoples have for centuries known that man can learn a great deal by observing the animal kingdom, so I waited to see how long it would take the local bird populace to once again commence flocking around the presently deserted feeder area. Keep in mind that, for several days now (a span of time which must seem an eternity to a bird!) this particular area -- and I emphasize this point -- has held no value from the birds' perspective, despite the fact it has repeatedly shown itself to be of extremely high value at fairly regular, though not precisely predictable, intervals.

Although several birds were in the vicinity of the feeders after I filled them, none seemed to bother checking it out. Since the feeders had "lost" their value days ago, the birds mistakenly concluded that the situation was static and had nothing further to offer. No doubt they viewed the last filling as an "aberration" never to be repeated. Again, the feeders had been empty and un-inviting for days -- even a dodo could deduce that they were now a useless relic of the past! "The feeders? Don't be silly! No one who knows anything about profitable food-gathering goes there anymore!"

After a few minutes, I noticed one, lone sparrow make its way to one of the branches protruding about nine or ten inches from the three feeders, all of which were now chock-full of fresh birdseed. I naturally assumed the bird would jump immediately onto one of the vessels like a duck on a June bug (yes, ducks really do jump on June bugs!) but, to my amazement, the sparrow just sat there on the branch, nervously looking around and surveying the situation.

I wondered, as the little sparrow evaluated the feeder status, what might be going through its mind. Normally, when the feeders contain food, the entire area is a cacophony of chirping, fluttering, pecking and squawking as birds of many feathers and sizes jostle and fight for position on the feeders and on the ground below, where lie the spilled riches of the swinging containers' bounty. It's possible, I guess, that this particular "early bird" was so dumbfounded at having happened upon the mother lode -- without the usual accompanying pandemonium -- that it simply couldn't believe its incredible good fortune. Or perhaps it was looking around guiltily, as a man might do who has just hit upon a treasure box while digging for a buried water main. It's also possible, I suppose, the little fellow was just instinctively obeying the always-obligatory pecking order, which, at this particular auspicious moment, was happily moot. A more likely explanation, of course, was the simple, requisite checking for predators; after all, one can't be too careful when situated near the lower end of the food chain, a fact sadly reconfirmed recently by non-management Enron employees.

Now into the fifth paragraph of this cyber version of Animal Planet, the reader is no doubt mentally exclaiming (and rightfully so), "OK, Dr. Doolittle: what does all this have to do with the gold and silver situation!?" To which I would courteously reply, "Plenty." Please bear with me, then, while I continue my story. After a minute of so of pondering, the solitary sparrow apparently decided that, merely because no other birds were currently appreciating the value of the feeding area was not a good reason to pass up the opportunity to do so himself. In other words, the sparrow could readily grasp that the number of creatures presently seizing the opportunity was no reflection of its actual value. Thus did that first sparrow bravely prove himself (or herself -- hey, Marlin Perkins I ain't!) to be a true natural contrarian, not waiting for the crowd to confirm the choice before deciding to act.

To continue this riveting account of nature's own economy lesson, our fine, feathered friend quickly began making his instinctive noises and gestures indicating to his comrades that substantial food had been located. It wasn't long before a few more sparrows came fluttering in to check out the situation for themselves. Again, most of the newcomers were cautious about their initial approach, but the great majority of them decided the opportunity was too good to pass by and they, too, began descending on the new-found bonanza. The sparrows moved quickly and nervously, devouring as much seed as possible in as little time as possible, for they seemed to understand clearly what would happen next. In a very short time, realizing the newly established trend, the "big boys" would be arriving. And, sure enough, minutes after hearing of the feeding area's renewed "value," the much larger and more powerful blue jays arrived. Soon after, the still-larger and equally aggressive black birds entered the market, along with a couple of gray squirrels, now busily packing away the easiest of the pickings: the interspersed sunflower seeds.

By now the sparrows, far more nimble but much smaller and less powerful than the other players, were being harrassed and muscled out of the scene by the larger animals, who are far better equipped to compete at the food-gathering game. The sparrows who arrived earliest to the party were, of course, the ones who "profited" most, for they could never be denied that which they managed to acquire before the bullies arrived. Were the smaller animals provided by nature with some means of storing their initial acquisitions, they would no doubt have been able to command an extremely high premium for their holdings at some future point -- especially if the ensuing winter proved unusually harsh.

For a while, the cackling commotion was a textbook lesson in gluttonous greed, with each participating member of the animal "community" mindlessly consuming as much of the available, but limited, commodity as possible. As far as I could ascertain, with my limited knowledge of "animal-speak," at no time during the hoarding frenzy did any of the creatures feel that the now-universally-coveted feed lacked "inherent value" or stood as a mere "barbarous relic." On the contrary: the worth of the precious commodity, along with the participants' behavior, seemed to speak for itself.

At this point, I hope it is safe to assume the astute reader has seen through this thinly veiled analogy of our animal brothers' wilderness activities and connected it with the present-day circumstances of the world's fiat-money-based financial system and the opportunity that lies begging to be seized in the precious metals markets. The opportunity itself seems obvious. But homo sapien is a strange bird, indeed, and many, it seems, would prefer to scavenge with the vultures, hunting for near-lifeless NASDAQ corpses or paralyzed, earnings-depleted DOW dogs than to soar in the flight to safety with the gold and silver eagles of the coming precious metals migration northward.

When capital takes flight, it usually does so in large flocks, and the last ones to the watering hole will either pay a dear price for a drink or find the resevoir is dry once they arrive. Following the pecking order and waiting to see what the "commercials" do can be instructive at times, but the strategy is almost always an expensive one. In the wild kingdom of financial markets, by the time a trend is so obvious that even a blind bat can spot it, it's probably too late to jump in. At any rate, it will be far more expensive than it would have been before the notion became popular. The early bird catches the trend, and, when investing, it is far better to be a year early than a month late!

We find ourselves at a crossroads of financial history. Companies previously envied by the corporate world are now extinct or, at best, on the endangered species list. Trillions of investor dollars have been wiped out. As evidenced by fiat-finance geniuses who run Argentina, we now know it is possible for entire countries to go bankrupt, almost without warning. Nearly every currency on the planet struggles to find shelter in the storm, and nearly every major world economy is engulfed in "recession." The smart birds will quickly feather their nests with gold and silver equities of unhedged producers. This requires owl-like wisdom, since the Wall Street clucks are still squawking about their once-stellar tech picks or their stodgy, old fallbacks of yesteryear.

But soon, the "pros," many of whom evidently cannot see the forrest for the trees, may be caught napping as the stock prices of a select group of precious metals mining companies will begin rising above the clouds, whose gold and silver linings will then be so obvious that even an Andersen auditor could not overlook them. And the "wise," old birds on Wall Street, along with millions of previously sleeping-hen investors around the world, will suddenly be asking, "What's all the flap about!!??" By then, of course, those of us "sparrows" who arrived early at the "feeder" will be perched high above the ensuing investor cockfight, crowing about our previously acquired resource stock holdings, for which we paid mere bird feed in the months and years prior to the Great Migration.

So take courage and beat the flocks to the feeder, and don't make the mistake of assuming that because you don't find it crowded when you arrive that you must be in the wrong place. Remember, no one wanted oil a few years ago at $10 per barrel. "It's worth less than bottled water!" they exclaimed. Little did most investors suspect that fewer than 24 months later, the price of crude would triple. Today we find gold and silver occupying that same lowly assessment among most investors. "Metals pay no dividends!" they shout. But were gold to perform similarly to oil, the price would soar to more than $750 per ounce -- or nearly as much as bottled water. Even long-suffering silver, "the poor man's gold", would be selling for at least $12 to $15 per ounce, and possibly much, much more.

We can only imagine where such explosive price movements of the metals themselves would send the stock prices of the unhedged companies which produce them. Naturally, no one can say for sure exactly when this historic shift in sentiment will occur, but it sure feels like it will be sooner rather than later. One thing is certain: it will happen. These days, even a birdbrain can see it coming...

Canuck

(02/20/2002; 16:02:15 MDT - Msg ID: 70478)

@ Jon

Confusion reigns my good man. If one was to read 10 analyst's viewpoints 10 opinions would be had, ranging from big bull to big bear and everything in between. In every market, its difficult to take a position because one is so baffled.

I have watched the price of gasoline in Ottawa in the last 4 months. It flips and flops from 48 cents to 61 cents almost twice a week. That's a whopper 25% swing.

Gold races to 307 and back to 293, will it race back?

The volatility in frightening, something has to give and I hope very soon.

Canuck

(02/20/2002; 16:14:00 MDT - Msg ID: 70479)

Well, well

it seems that the German C.B. has retracted yesterday's aggressive gold-selling statement.

Can we please have our 7 dollars tacked back onto the POG?

Canuck

(02/20/2002; 16:24:23 MDT - Msg ID: 70480)

@ Jon @ All

There's a very factual comment over at G-E (18:09) regarding Enron.

We have had the media back off from this Enron thing in the last week to two but this story is a reminder of the human puke involved in todays crooked markets.

Everytime the Enron thing fades I feel it important that we 'stir' it back up to the surface.

Paten

(02/20/2002; 16:58:35 MDT - Msg ID: 70481)

POG Contest

****286.8****
The sub-masters of the universe have pushed the price of gold down again. But their foundation is rotten and this hold up. If I were a Japanese with a savings account, I would be buying gold right now even though Bush Jr. is over there attempting to bolster support for their economy.

Henri

(02/20/2002; 16:58:42 MDT - Msg ID: 70482)

Contest RE-entry

*****$320.0*****

OK Pizz, You pushed me to it.

I wish to use my reasoning from my previous entry with the exception that $320.0 is now the target and that it will close without exceeding that level.

Leigh

(02/20/2002; 17:12:03 MDT - Msg ID: 70483)

Bullrider

Beautiful essay!!

R Powell

(02/20/2002; 17:42:07 MDT - Msg ID: 70484)

The Lone Sparrow

Interesting story. Did you, at any time during your stay in New Mexico, while housesitting, get a chance to talk to that lone sparrow? He didn't happen to call himself Ted Butler?
Rich

Canuck

(02/20/2002; 17:52:42 MDT - Msg ID: 70485)

@BB

$333.3 is still open amigo but I remind you that I have 'reserved' this bid.

There seems to be a 'massing' near 292, is this co-incidental?

Canuck.

sourdough

(02/20/2002; 17:54:57 MDT - Msg ID: 70486)

Good read on U.S. housing boom/prices

February 21, 2002
US home prices carry on defying gravity

Which is disturbing in what is a recessionary economy - because the boom could herald a bust a year after the stock market's peak, like in Japan

By
Robert Samuelson

(WASHINGTON) One surprising aspect of this surprising US economy is housing. About 18 months ago, neighbours of mine sold their home for about 25 per cent more than I thought - in my wildest imagination - it was worth.

At the time, I congratulated them. They had sold, I suggested, exactly at the peak of the real-estate market. Wrong again. A few weeks ago, another house a few blocks away went for about 20 per cent more than I thought - in my wildest imagination - it was worth.

Housing, it seems, is the last bull market. It's not just my neighbourhood. The National Association of Realtors reports that in 2001, the median price of existing homes rose 6.2 per cent to US$148,000. In Nassau and Suffolk counties outside New York City, the gain was 23.2 per cent to US$269,900. In the Minneapolis-St Paul area, the jump was 22.3 per cent to US$172,800. In Los Angeles, the increase was 12.6 per cent to US$254,300. All this boosts the faltering American and world economies.

To anyone with a sense of history, the home boom must be a source of wonder. Housing usually leads the economy into recession. Mortgage rates rise, then construction and home sales fall. Not this time. In 2001, new-home construction totalled 1.603 million units, up 2.2 per cent from 2000. Existing home sales set a record of 5.25 million.

Americans are, well, being American. They're exercising their faith in the future. If they don't own a home, they want one. The home ownership rate - the share of households not renting - is now a historic high of 68 per cent; in 1990, it was 64 per cent. Those who already own want to 'trade up'. Since 1987, the size of the median new home has grown 17 per cent to 2,059 square feet.

'We've seen housing perform a heroic role in fighting off recession,' says economist Todd Buchholz, author of a report on housing from the Homeownership Alliance. It's more than construction. Home buyers, says Buchholz, spend up to US$9,000 on extras: sofas, lawn mowers, televisions, garden furniture.

Buoyant home prices have also fortified national morale by neutralising some of the gloom from growing unemployment and a falling stock market.

There's been a Wal-Mart effect: the middle class has benefited the most, because its wealth is most concentrated in housing. By contrast, the wealthy are more invested in stocks. From year-end 1999 until last September, household stock wealth - mutual funds and directly owned shares - lost about US$4.4 trillion in value, dropping to US$8 trillion. Almost half the loss was offset by higher home values, up US$2 trillion to nearly US$12 trillion over the same period.

The explanation of why, this time, housing defied the business cycle lies mainly in interest rates. In January 2000, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 8.2 per cent. A year later, they were 7 per cent - which is where (generally speaking) they've stayed. People rushed to buy. Lower rates also prompted massive refinancings of existing mortgages. Housing has also profited from the efforts by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - the nation's largest mortgage lenders - to expand homeownership among blacks, Hispanics, immigrants and low-income families.

Since the mid-1990s, downpayment requirements and credit standards have been eased. Homeownership rates have increased from about 42 per cent for blacks and Hispanics in 1995 to almost 49 per cent last year. (For whites, the gain was from 71 per cent to 74 per cent.) Great. But inconvenient questions arise. Is housing's bull market genuine? Or is it another 'bubble'?

One sceptic is economist Ian Morris of HSBC Securities. Housing's boom, he says, partly reflects the stock market's bust. Disenchanted investors shift funds into homes, which seem safer. In a weaker economy, lenders also prefer home loans to business loans; so mortgage rates drop. Easier credit and strong buying then boost home prices - too fast.

'We've witnessed this process elsewhere in the world,' says Morris. 'The stock market will peak before the property market.' In Japan, the stock market 'peaked in December 1989, and the real-estate market kept rising for another 12 months'. Morris calculates that all homes are now worth about 1.6 times Americans' disposable personal income - a ratio virtually identical to the record in 1989.

For five years after that, modest gains in home prices lagged behind inflation. 'The current rate of price increases is unsustainable,' he says. 'The best we can hope for is a soft landing of prices.'

Mortgage delinquencies are also rising. In September, 4.87 per cent of loans were 30 days or more overdue - the highest level since 1991.

The hints here are that housing's next surprise might be unpleasant. But the hints are, as yet, nowhere evident in my neighbourhood. Just last week, a home down the block went on the market. A few days later, there was already an 'under contract' sign out front. And when I learn the price, it will no doubt seem shockingly high. - The Washington Post Writers Group

DOWNUNDER

(02/20/2002; 18:43:09 MDT - Msg ID: 70487)

PRICING GUESS - - - -

My guess for the price contest is **** $313****. Having been manipulated down there's a major chance that it will rebound back --well past the other side of $300.

I'm a holder NOT a trader -- and my shares (all gold)have doubled o/all in the past 6 mths (although down around 12% because of current dip).I also hold physical in gold & silver. I'm of the opinion that UP is the only way for gold & silver --although it aint easy going into the troughs especially when fully invested.

Thanks to all contributers to this site. Your analysis of unfolding events is of great value & has helped this lurker to hold fast during some very bad times !

sector

(02/20/2002; 19:31:37 MDT - Msg ID: 70488)

Insurance Losses [Enron, et al] Coming

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3QQXRLXXC&live=true&tagid=IXLI0L9Z1BC
Leading insurer warns of threat from Enron fall-out
By Adrian Michaels in Hamilton, Bermuda
Published: February 20 2002 20:52 | Last Updated: February 20 2002 21:44

A senior executive from AIG, the world's largest insurer, on Wednesday warned that the insurance industry was facing a disastrous run of claims over policies covering shareholder lawsuit liabilities in the wake of the Enron scandal.

Thomas Tizzio, senior vice-chairman at AIG, said the financial fall-out from the energy trader's collapse and other high-profile failures such as the recent bankruptcy filing of retailer K-Mart, were a "wake-up" call for the insurance industry.

Insurers write "directors and officers" policies for companies that are triggered when shareholders file lawsuits after financial shocks. As well as covering awards, insurers usually have to pay legal fees. These account for the lion's share of their liabilities, even if the companies eventually defeat the suits.

Mr Tizzio, commenting on the severe market jitters over corporate accounting in recent weeks, said insurers needed to understand the companies they covered and the risks to which they were committing themselves.

More than 50 lawsuits have been filed against Enron's directors and executives, seeking compensation and alleging that shareholders were not given an accurate financial picture of the company.

Mr Tizzio implied that insurers had not charged enough for D&O premiums in general. "The focus in 2002 will be on D&O in corporate America," he said. "This year could ultimately see a catastrophic loss in that sector."

Black Blade

(02/20/2002; 19:41:20 MDT - Msg ID: 70489)

Buba plans no big gold sales, sticks to accord

http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt.jsp?cat=USMARKET&src=201&feed=reu§ion=news≠ws_id=reu-l20419422-u1&date=20020220&alias=/alias/money/cm/nw
Snippit:

FRANKFURT, Feb 20 (Reuters) - The Bundesbank on Wednesday said it had no immediate plans to sell large amounts of gold and would stick to a 1999 accord curbing central bank disposals, but made no promises beyond the life of the deal which ends in 2004. "We are still abiding by the central bank gold agreement of 1999. We have no plans for the immediate future to sell large amounts of gold," a Bundesbank spokesman told Reuters.

He was reacting to remarks by Bundesbank President Ernst Welteke in an interview with Bloomberg News on Tuesday, in which Welteke said: "I could imagine that we slowly sell some of this gold and reinvest the revenue in assets that pay an interest." The Bundesbank, with 3,500 tonnes in its reserves, is the world's second largest official holder of bullion after the United states and the remark hit bullion hard, shaving $4.0 from the spot price which fell to $293 per ounce.

Black Blade: This dim bulb (Welteke) now says - sorry, I was just kidding. The Bundesbank better hold onto the Gold. I suspect that the Euro will be a failure. How 12 different nations with different political agendas and cultures can possibly remain united by a common currency and monetary policy is beyond me. Already there are cracks in the system with Italy and Greece barely able to maintain fiscal discipline. I give it a couple of years before some countries bow out. Those countries then may want Gold as their reserve currency.

R Powell

(02/20/2002; 19:48:02 MDT - Msg ID: 70490)

2002 Gold Survey

http://www.cpmgroup.com/store.htm Became available as of 2/19/02 (yesterday). I didn't see anything about the 2002 Silver Survey yet.
Rich

Black Blade

(02/20/2002; 19:59:31 MDT - Msg ID: 70492)

Sons Of Gwalia Gives Poor Prognosis For Gold

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/020220/15/2ip0i.html
Snippit:

PERTH (Dow Jones)--Sons of Gwalia Ltd. (A.SGW) Managing Director Mark Cutifani attributed lower-than-forecast gold grades for the second half of 2001-02 to an unforeseen scheduling issue but said the company remains confident that demand for tantalum is rebounding, despite a recent slump in spot prices.

Black Blade: No surprise here as Sons of Gwalia is a massive hedger and if the POG rises they stand to go tits up. This is probably wishful hoping on their part.

Black Blade

(02/20/2002; 20:07:46 MDT - Msg ID: 70493)

****$292.50****

Price Guess - $292.50. Why, because the POG could not hold solidly above $300.00/oz. Afetr the POG rallies we hear the stories come out. First there is the Gold-terrorist-Al Qaeda connection. Now we hear idiot dim bulbs like Welteke making decisions that he prohibited from making. He is not only bound by the WA agreement, but also is only one vote on the Bundesbank board. We will likely see more assaults on Gold by detractors in a pitiful effort to constrain the POG. For the next few days the POG may be held in check. I sure hope that I am "low-balling" it.

Black Blade

(02/20/2002; 20:25:28 MDT - Msg ID: 70494)

If Germany shuns gold others may follow

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2002/02/20/rtr518918.html

Snippit:

LONDON, Feb 20 (Reuters) - The German Bundesbank's painful defection from the ranks of gold allies may persuade other bullion-laden central banks to dump some of the holdings once prized as a bulwark again financial and political meltdown.

"It is the loss of one of the major supporters of gold as a central bank reserve," he told Reuters. "Now it's only seen as a matter of time for the French and U.S. to follow."

Black Blade: That's all right though. Liberate captive Gold from the hands of the Reichs Bank, er... . Bundesbank, to the hands of freedom loving peoples. Maybe Welteke wants to unload all those teeth .... er I mean Gold ingots to relieve his conscience. When the people have the Gold and not the CBs, then the people will rule their own lives as soveriegn beings.

Black Blade

(02/20/2002; 20:48:10 MDT - Msg ID: 70495)

Metals - Gold slips back as US accounting worries, Japanese buying subside

http://www.ananova.com/business/story/sm_524949.html?menu=business.latestheadlines
Snippit:

Gold remained under pressure in late trade as worries about accounting practices in the US and Japanese buying receded, dealers said. Japanese investors failed to buy gold despite a sharp fall in the Nikkei index overnight, they added.

"The Japanese haven't been buying (gold), and there's been some profit taking," Kamal Naqvi at Macquarie Bank said. He said the recent rally in gold buying, fuelled by the Japanese buying and accountancy concerns in the US equity markets, is subsiding as both factors fade out.

Black Blade: This can't help that the Japanese are not buying as much as they have been over the last few days. However, as April 1st (April Fools Day) approaches, we could see Japanese buying pick up again. As far as US accounting scandals are concerned two new investigations are under way - Global Crossing and Computer Associates, and soon maybe Qwest will be tagged.

The Victorian

(02/20/2002; 20:56:17 MDT - Msg ID: 70496)

gold price guess

*******294.8*******
I think as much bad news and harmful rumours as possible have been dredged up to hold down the price of gold, for the time being. I see no reason for further downward momentum, neither is there any great reason for gold to rebound. I believe there will be little movement until the next crisis of confidence in the stock market, or the next global incident propels it upward again.

pdeep

(02/20/2002; 21:16:56 MDT - Msg ID: 70497)

Gold, Interest rates, and the housing market

I warched the recent C-span webcast on GATA, and it struck me how critical it is at this juncture to keep gold from flashing higher interest rates in the future. While gold-shorts have an obvious stake in the supression of the price, no one, I believe, has a bigger stake than the Fed. Today the WSJ pointed out how the GSE's, FannieMae and Freddie Mac, have $2.6 trillion in mortgage debt outstanding, at a 60:1 debt:asset ratio. Since housing prices (assets) are set at the margin, much like equity prices, it makes sense that with low interest rates, a lot of buyers come into the market bidding prices up for everyone. Not to mention the "money creation" as home owners tap into that asset via home equity loans. Any spike in long-term rates would dry up the pool of buyers, so that if housing prices fell, the hit taken by asset prices would likely drive that ratio much higher, and it would effectively end home equity loans. So between the hit to the GSE's and the hit on new debt/money creation, the results would be catastrophi. Nice to know that the GSE's don't have to file financial statements with the SEC, and that we have no idea of the counterparty risk of their $760 billion in swaps since they do not have to declare the counterparties.

Grubstaker

(02/20/2002; 21:24:41 MDT - Msg ID: 70498)

WELCOME BLACK BLADE...COME ON IN...

****$292.8**** Trapper (02/14/02; 19:44:13MT msg#: 70067

****$292.4**** Yellow Jacket (02/18/02; 19:32:27MT msg#: 70341

****$292.0**** Grubstaker (02/14/02; 22:50:18MT msg#: 70083
****$291.9**** silvercollector (02/15/02; 16:41:09MT msg#: 70149
****$291.8**** Novice Bear (02/20/02; 10:51:47MT msg#: 70460

I see this situation as a buying opportunity..."ALL ABOARD.....THE GOLD TRAIN IS ABOUT TO LEAVE THE STATION"...

mikal

(02/20/2002; 22:03:35 MDT - Msg ID: 70499)

*****$290.50***** Price Guessing Contest

Producer buybacks, Arab, French, Mexican, Canadian, American, Japanese, Russian, Indian, and Chinese official and private demand (world demand), and short covering should put a floor at nearby resistance of $289-$290. Mass media silence and giveaway prices signal buy more, much more. POG is like a shackled bull being fed too much food, steroids, and enticements. For example, media censorship, disinformation, and distraction evolves into the latest flamboyant metamorphasis: wild, undocumented stories like GERMAN gold about-face, and Japanese demand DOA and RIP (dead on arrival and rest in peace). Shortly after the last BOE auction, the desperation of impending capitulation will be increasingly futile. #####$290.50#####

John Doe

(02/20/2002; 22:05:46 MDT - Msg ID: 70500)

Gold retrace

How many times have we seen these announcements, sometimes official and sometimes rumor, supposedly justifying the day's negative price effect on the metals complex, only to be retracted within days? Everyone seems to believe that the Bundesbank "announcement" caused the POG to falter yesterday. Again, I would like to suggest an alternate theory, i.e., that these events are window dressing for public consumption, merely intended to provide cover for repricing Au in order to purposely attenuate gold's building momentum. The absurd news items are not causes, but smokescreens, and unfortunately are to be expected, even anticipated. Remember, the metals-pricing markets are run, by and large, by and for insiders, including central banks and their governments. They have many goals to achieve and impressions to impart in their daily activities. Sometimes the means to these ends are technically legal and subjectively admirable, and at other times they are neither.

Gandalf the White

(02/20/2002; 22:10:35 MDT - Msg ID: 70501)

COMEX February '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST

OK Goldfly -- LET SPIKE Loose !!!
PROGRESS REPORT !!
GUESSES in order of DECENDING Value

****$8,752.0**** The Invisible Hand (2/18/02; 01:46:17MT msg#: 70296
****$5,126.0**** R Powell (02/18/02; 13:19:28MT msg#: 70320

****$1,500.0**** LimitUp (02/14/02; 23:41:07MT msg#: 70090

****$929.0**** golden rule (02/14/02; 18:10:01MT msg#: 70049

****$448.4**** techbull.... (02/16/02; 22:30:45MT msg#: 70224

****$437.5**** Econoclast (02/14/02; 19:05:57MT msg#: 70063

****$379.0**** sstins (02/14/02; 14:34:25MT msg#: 70015

****$352.2**** goldquest (02/14/02; 13:52:51MT msg#: 70010

****$339.0**** rsjacksr (02/15/02; 20:15:47MT msg#: 70164

****$333.3**** Guided (02/16/02; 14:33:23MT msg#: 70206

****$329.1****.Clint H (2/15/02; 09:40:17MT msg#: 70111
****$329.0**** ROSEBUD99 (2/15/02; 09:32:21MT msg#: 70110

****$327.6**** RobotGuy (2/15/02; 08:09:30MT msg#: 70104

****$324.1**** auenboy (02/17/02; 19:31:09MT msg#: 70281

****$320.4**** Rock (02/18/02; 16:33:35MT msg#: 70328

****$320.2**** Tommy P (02/16/02; 13:33:42MT msg#: 70201

****$320.0**** Henri (02/20/02; 16:58:42MT msg#: 70482
****$319.9**** Pizz (02/14/02; 22:52:31MT msg#: 70084
****$319.8**** Shermag (02/17/02; 18:38:33MT msg#: 70278

****$319.2**** MidEastGold (2/15/02; 07:05:36MT msg#: 70102

****$318.2**** A Canadian (02/14/02; 14:36:41MT msg#: 70016

****$317.9**** wiley (02/14/02; 20:41:56MT msg#: 70076

****$316.3**** slingshot (02/14/02; 14:22:58MT msg#: 70012

****$315.3**** CoBra(too) (02/17/02; 17:57:15MT msg#: 70277

****$315.0**** neer-do-well (02/16/02; 21:14:28MT msg#: 70217

****$314.0**** nickel62 (2/19/02; 08:47:16MT msg#: 70377

****$313.5**** KTC (02/17/02; 22:25:55MT msg#: 70288)

****$313.4**** pdeep (02/18/02; 16:25:02MT msg#: 70326

****$313.0**** DOWNUNDER (02/20/02; 18:43:09MT msg#: 70487

****$312.5**** darkhorse (02/14/02; 13:35:52MT msg#: 70009

****$312.1**** Voyager (2/15/02; 12:50:14MT msg#: 70138

****$310.0**** Boxman (02/15/02; 18:52:21MT msg#: 70160

****$309.7**** Hektor (02/16/02; 14:31:01MT msg#: 70205

****$309.5**** Siochain (02/14/02; 20:07:10MT msg#: 70070

****$308.7**** law (02/14/02; 22:17:01MT msg#: 70080

****$308.1**** goldenpeace (02/14/02; 13:22:48MT msg#: 70008

****$307.9**** Jon (2/15/02; 13:02:47MT msg#: 70141

****$307.7**** Waverider (02/14/02; 15:13:23MT msg#: 70021

****$306.1**** EagleOne (02/14/02; 14:27:04MT msg#: 70014

****$305.4**** Achilles (2/15/02; 05:25:21MT msg#: 70099

****$305.0**** Broken Tee (2/15/02; 14:32:54MT msg#: 70143

****$304.7**** Angel (02/17/02; 19:55:18MT msg#: 70282

****$304.5**** Joepmbull (02/18/02; 11:39:21MT msg#: 70318
****$304.4**** Solomon Weaver (02/16/02; 10:53:18MT msg#: 70190

****$304.2**** balzac (02/14/02; 17:34:42MT msg#: 70041

****$303.8**** uponroof (02/14/02; 14:24:30MT msg#: 70013

****$303.3**** AUtistic (02/17/02; 07:13:15MT msg#: 70236

****$303.1**** Operative (2/16/02; 03:47:42MT msg#: 70184

****$302.5**** Canuck Gold (02/14/02; 15:09:18MT msg#: 70019

****$302.3**** Mythical (02/14/02; 21:42:32MT msg#: 70079

****$301.9**** goldroadlx7 (02/16/02; 12:39:41MT msg#: 70195

****$301.0**** Christian (02/17/02; 06:47:49MT msg#: 70235

****$300.1**** VanRip (02/14/02; 18:25:51MT msg#: 70054

****$299.9**** Artie Farkle (2/15/02; 02:08:09MT msg#: 70097

****$299.0**** Carl H (02/14/02; 14:20:24MT msg#: 70011

****$298.7**** Truthcaster (02/14/02; 18:25:45MT msg#: 70053

****$298.4**** Topaz (02/14/02; 23:39:21MT msg#: 70089

****$298.0**** Goldilocks 1 (2/20/02; 08:11:44MT msg#: 70450
****$297.9**** Knallgold (2/15/02; 07:47:09MT msg#: 70103

****$297.4**** auric (02/18/02; 22:11:08MT msg#: 70360
****$297.3**** Richman (02/20/02; 13:09:30MT msg#: 70466

****$296.7**** The CoinGuy (02/14/02; 17:14:39MT msg#: 70037

****$296.4**** Au-some (2/19/02; 07:22:18MT msg#: 70373

****$295.6**** coco (02/18/02; 16:29:13MT msg#: 70327

****$295.0****.Beowulf (2/19/02; 15:47:47MT msg#: 70413

****$294.8**** The Victorian (02/20/02; 20:56:17MT msg#: 70496

****$294.5**** turkey hunter (02/18/02; 15:05:26MT msg#: 70322

****$293.6**** sourdough (02/20/02; 11:05:24MT msg#: 70462

****$293.3**** jlfletc (02/20/02; 12:14:44MT msg#: 70463

****$293.0**** Flatlander (02/17/02; 10:39:58MT msg#: 70249

****$292.8**** Trapper (02/14/02; 19:44:13MT msg#: 70067

****$292.5**** Black Blade (02/20/02; 20:07:46MT msg#: 70493
****$292.4**** Yellow Jacket (02/18/02; 19:32:27MT msg#: 70341

****$292.0**** Grubstaker (02/14/02; 22:50:18MT msg#: 70083
****$291.9**** silvercollector (02/15/02; 16:41:09MT msg#: 70149
****$291.8**** Novice Bear (02/20/02; 10:51:47MT msg#: 70460

****$291.5**** Max Rabbitz (2/19/02; 21:24:30MT msg#: 70430

****$291.0**** Humble Pie (02/20/02; 14:35:45MT msg#: 70469
****$290.9**** kludge (02/18/02; 13:15:21MT msg#: 70319

****$290.5**** mikal (02/20/02; 22:03:35MT msg#: 70499)
****$290.4**** John Doe (02/17/02; 23:06:16MT msg#: 70289

****$290.0**** HOOSIER GOLDBUG (02/14/02; 15:50:12MT msg#: 70031
****$289.9**** miner49er (02/14/02; 15:30:03MT msg#: 70026

****$289.4**** Wky_Woodsman (2/20/02; 01:08:19MT msg#: 70435

****$288.8**** ausome (2/19/02; 12:02:49MT msg#: 70390

****$286.8**** Paten (02/20/02; 16:58:35MT msg#: 70481

****$284.0**** OpalBill (02/18/02; 18:58:30MT msg#: 70335

****$274.9**** Frosty (02/14/02; 18:55:58MT msg#: 70060
###########################
THE RULES (revisited) --
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of
(GC2G) on the date of Friday the 22th of February.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "stars" *****
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as *****$543.2*****
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, Feb. 21th.
6) A short "WHY" discussion paragraph should accompany your prognostication.
GOOD LUCK ALL !
===
<;-)

miner49er

(02/20/2002; 22:39:26 MDT - Msg ID: 70502)

USAGOLD @ 70474; re: Hall of Fame

You know, Mike, I used to play the trumpet when I was a kid. I used to practice in a sparsely furnished, big room with wooden floors. I used to drive my mother crazy.

It is certainly with humble gratitude that I receive this most coveted honor, that of having one's thoughts and words immortalized in this esteemed Hall. Thank you to those who so graciously nominated this post, especially Mr. Gresham, who took quite an effort in elaborating upon it. Yes Sir, I do enjoy composing them. I hope others enjoy reading them more than I enjoy writing them, else it becomes like one who laughs at his own jokes in the midst of embarrassed colleagues...

Sir Belgian - thank you good Sir, for your encouraging comments. It is always the greatest pleasure to know something one has labored over is of benefit to someone else. Such the essence of giving...

Cavan Man - in my estimation, no one energizes the Celtic essence like Yeats. English retellings of these tales usually render as quaint and wooden. WBY imbues them with the wistful hues of the Celtic Twilight he so timelessly captured. Another favorite from this genre is "Fergus and the Druid."

A couple extracts to leave off with:

Druid. What would you, king of the proud Red Branch kings?

Fergus. A king and proud! and that is my despair.
I feast amid my people on the hill,
And pace the woods, and drive my chariot-wheels
In the white border of the murmuring sea;
And still I feel the crown upon my head.

...and ...

Fergus. A king is but a foolish labourer
Who wastes his blood to be another's dream.

Again, thank you.

miner49er

Brett Woods

(02/20/2002; 22:51:23 MDT - Msg ID: 70503)

****297.0****

My guess is for $297.0 because I expect POG may rise due to tidal effects of the Moon before the federales begin the next assault on $288; an attempt which, of course, will ultimately be doomed due to momentus back pressure from the cosmic unconscious.

Maiden Fan

(02/20/2002; 23:26:42 MDT - Msg ID: 70504)

*****293.90*****

Gold has been wacked down over the past couple of days and we've also had a PPT rally in the stock market to make everyone happy. The trend has been for this kind of thing to only last for a couple of days though. So I would expect to see the stock market drift lower and gold to drift higher in the next couple days.

Black Blade

(02/20/2002; 23:27:23 MDT - Msg ID: 70505)

Enron Built Fake Nerve Center

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020221/business_enron_sting_dc_1.html
Snippit:

HOUSTON (Reuters) - It wasn't only the accounting that was creative at Enron Corp. To hawk a new venture to Wall Street at a 1998 conference, the company built a make believe command center and ordered employees to act like they were cutting deals months before it was operational, a former executive said on Wednesday.

According to the executive, Enron staffed the then-inactive nerve center with employees, ordered to act like they were working as two top executives emceed an intricately choreographed show put on for financial analysts in 1998.

Black Blade: Sounds like the typical Wall Street boiler room to me - say like JPMC or Goldman Sachs?

TEX

(02/20/2002; 23:38:25 MDT - Msg ID: 70506)

****$289.80****

Beats me, just looks like a good number.

Waverider

(02/21/2002; 00:02:04 MDT - Msg ID: 70507)

Japan: Banks' Shareholding (BS) Purchase Corporation

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20020221wo12.htmFebruary 21,2002
Snippit:
"Despite government efforts to promote a body established to buy cross-held shares from banks, which began [begins] operation Friday, observers said the banking industry was showing little interest in the project.

The Financial Services Agency on Tuesday met with heads of major commercial banks to request quick sales of their shareholdings, but bankers showed only polite interest, observers said. Thus the latest government attempt to wipe out the shareholdings that burden the nation's financial institutions may fail, observers said.

Sales of shares through the special account covered by a 2 trillion yen government guarantee valid until April 26 require banks to provide an additional 8 percent of the sales to the purchase corporation, a complicated procedure said to deter banks from using the system.

A provisional law on banks' shareholdings passed in November bans banks in principal from owning shares in excess of their capital base after Sept. 30, 2004. The FSA estimates that major commercial banks would be required to sell about 11 trillion yen worth of stocks to meet the requirement.

The government feared [fears] that large simultaneous sell-offs of banks' shareholdings on the market would lead to a vicious cycle of plunging share prices and worsening bank finances, which in a worst-case scenario could lead to a national financial crisis."

Waverider: What's this? Koizumi's new yen yen PPT? Looks like the banks however, aren't buying into the BS... Purchase Corp.

BTW, I searched the net extensively for information on the Washington Accord and came up with nothing. Any sources of information would be appreciated. TIA and Cheers!

Black Blade

(02/21/2002; 00:21:25 MDT - Msg ID: 70508)

Market Wrap Up - Puplava

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/default.html
Central Banks - Battle Gold to Keep it From Rising

Snippit:

The recent gold rally ended yesterday after the German central bank surprised the gold markets by saying it wants to sell off some of its reserves. The statement coming from Germany's central bank shocked the gold markets because previously they had said they would not sell gold. The announcement was designed to stop the gold rally in its tracks. If gold is allowed to rise, many of the world's leading banks in the US and Germany would run into problems with their gold shorts and their derivative books. The statement was designed to have a maximum effect on gold prices to keep gold from rising above $305 an ounce. Several key banks start to get themselves in trouble as prices rise above $305, $315, and $325.

Black Blade: Just another take on the reason for the Reichs bank announcement about possible Gold sales.

Golden Dreams All!

Waverider

(02/21/2002; 00:30:04 MDT - Msg ID: 70509)

Black Blade

Puplava LinkPlease...before you retire - the link's not linked...I get a double take of this page. Cheers and thanks,
Waverider

Black Blade

(02/21/2002; 00:35:40 MDT - Msg ID: 70510)

ooops!

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Here's the link for Puplava's Market Wrap Up. I got engrossed in watching the Ted Binion murder and his Silver stash of bullion and coin. Ted Binion once owned the Horseshoe casino in Las Vegas. "Interesting"

Usul

(02/21/2002; 00:53:49 MDT - Msg ID: 70511)

(No Subject)

http://www.usagold.com/NewGoldMarket.html"It began with a statement released jointly by European central banks from Washington, D.C. on Sunday, 26 September 1999 under support of the following signatories---

The European Central Bank and the central banks of Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and England.

Mr. Wim Duisenberg, President of the European Central Bank, announced the joint Statement on Gold:

"In the interest of clarifying their intentions with respect to their gold holdings, the above institutions make the following statement:

1. Gold will remain an important element of global monetary reserves.

2. The above institutions will not enter the market as sellers, with the exception of already decided sales.

3. The gold sales already decided will be achieved through a concerted programme of sales over the next five years. Annual sales will not exceed approximately 400 tons and total sales over this period will not exceed 2,000 tons.

4. The signatories to this agreement have agreed not to expand their gold leasings and their use of gold futures and options over this period.

5. This agreement will be reviewed after five years..."

BIG JOHN

(02/21/2002; 00:59:32 MDT - Msg ID: 70512)

contest

*****294.1*****

Waverider

(02/21/2002; 01:16:34 MDT - Msg ID: 70513)

Usul

Of course...the Gilded Opinion! Thank you, and Good Night All!
Waverider

Goldenmean

(02/21/2002; 02:10:20 MDT - Msg ID: 70514)

*****293.8*****

Gold will be stuck in a narrow trading range until market or political events make a break-out possible.Looks like they might be able to keep the lid on at least until the weekend.

Brett Woods

(02/21/2002; 03:25:46 MDT - Msg ID: 70515)

Not only are tensions rising in the middle east.

Headlines in Thursday's Pakistani newspapers
Islamabad, Feb 21, IRNA -- The following headlines appeared in major Pakistani dailies on February 21:

Pakistan not curbing terrorism: India

Pakistan rejects Indian offer to resume freight trains

India plans hike in military budget: report

Pak, Ukraine to pen tank deals soon

http://www.arabworldnews.com (Pakistan)

India, in Standoff With Pakistan, Likely to Boost Arms Spending

By Cherian Thomas

...India has massed 800,000 troops at its border with Pakistan since a Dec. 13 attack on its Parliament by terrorists that it said were backed by Islamabad. Even though India's army is twice as large as Pakistan's, Defense Minister George Fernandes will probably ask for more money to counter Islamabad's ally, China. ...

...India raised defense spending by 14 percent last year, and Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha, who next week will present the budget for the fiscal year starting April 1, said this year's increase ``will be in line with what has happened in the past.'' ...

Spending to support and equip India's 1.3 million-strong army accounts for 3.1 percent of gross domestic product and 12 percent of the budget. ...

Russia, which sells a third of its $4 billion in annual military exports to India, is likely to be the biggest beneficiary. Moscow's state-owned defense companies have supplied about two-thirds of India's 4,500 tanks, 743 combat aircraft and other hardware.

Last February, India agreed to buy 310 T-90 battle tanks from Russia worth an estimated $800 million. Earlier, the two countries signed a 15-year, $3 billion deal for 140 Sukhoi-30 MKI jet fighters.

Defense experts say China, with the world's biggest army, is more of a threat to India than Pakistan, which has less than a fifth of India's population and fewer resources. Since the December attack, Pakistan and China have drawn closer together.

``China is strategically trying to hem in India from Pakistan and Tibet,'' said Brahma Chellaney, a defense analyst at the Center for Policy Research, a New Delhi think-tank.

Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf visited Beijing twice after the December attack. Premier Zhu Rongji, in the first visit to India by a Chinese leader in a decade, urged closer trade ties and restraint in the dispute with Pakistan. ...

Animosity between largely Hindu India and Muslim Pakistan dates back to 1947, when both won independence from the United Kingdom. They have fought three wars, two of them over Kashmir. China and India fought a war in 1962 over a border area that remains disputed.

http://www.pakistandaily.com/

Narroway Walk

(02/21/2002; 03:51:47 MDT - Msg ID: 70516)

****$290.7****

Based on my highly propietary TA envolving Fibonacci, moon cycles and ladies hair styles......

Who knows, right?
Just a stab at it.
Fun though.

Canuck

(02/21/2002; 04:41:16 MDT - Msg ID: 70517)

Gold guessing contest

*****294.0*****

A little bounce in anticipation of the expiry of this paper scam and BOOM, revisit $300! Shorts will be advised (told) to cover and first quarter ends soldily above 300, closing in on resistance of 320/325.

Good luck to all!!

Cavan Man

(02/21/2002; 04:52:09 MDT - Msg ID: 70518)

Nikkei

Who or what is buying it? The churning over there is beginning to resemble the DOW.

Lamprey

(02/21/2002; 05:48:58 MDT - Msg ID: 70519)

Gold Guessing Contest

*****$290.10*****

Price is based on time studies (one day left!), support levels, and guessing real estate left open...

Out until Saturday - Good luck, All.

Black Blade

(02/21/2002; 05:52:41 MDT - Msg ID: 70520)

Large Losses on Wall Street

The first reports out this morning show severe loss reports from Nextel, and Radio Shack, and a whopping -$1.30 loss for Aetna. If this isn economic recovery, I would wonder what a recession/depression is supposed to look like.

- Black Blade

nickel62

(02/21/2002; 05:55:58 MDT - Msg ID: 70521)

AIG executive slips up and states the truth for a change.....

Mr Tizzio, in a rare public appearance for anyone at AIG other than Maurice "Hank" Greenberg, the company's chairman and normal spokesperson, said there had been 487 class-action claims for securities fraud in federal courts last year. In 2000, that had been just 216.

The number of suits started to grow dramatically with the bursting of the dotcom bubble and there is no end in sight, according to Bob Hartwig of the insurance institute. "The premium rates that were charged did not anticipate the tremendous surge in suits," he said. "[After Enron], the entire investment community has had the revelation that audited reports may not be worth the paper they're written on."

Black Blade

(02/21/2002; 06:20:42 MDT - Msg ID: 70522)

Gold now costs just $156/oz to produce - report

http://www.miningweekly.co.za/?show=19413
Snippit:

Sydney-based AME Mineral Economics has released its annual Gold Production Cost Report, analysing the cost structures of gold-mines and proposed new developments in 24 countries. These operations account for over 72% of current mined output. Cash costs of gold production averaged $156/oz last year, a small (2,5%) decline from the $160/oz mean value recorded by the same mine sample in 2000, and less than the 9% fall posted a year ago.

Black Blade: Gold has gained strongly against depreciating currencies Worldwide, though the US Dollar is still strong. Considering problems in Argentina and Japan it appears that Gold should be the currency (or savings vehicle of choice) of choice in foreign lands.

Black Blade

(02/21/2002; 06:34:08 MDT - Msg ID: 70523)

Jobless Claims Grows

Jobless claims grow by 10,000 to 383,000. The "official Bone Pile" numbers grow while the actual number is likely much higher. Meanwhile, many major corporations are posting greater losses and guiding lower estimates for next quarter. This is not a sign of a economy in recovery.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(02/21/2002; 06:48:56 MDT - Msg ID: 70524)

Corporate Losses Increase

More corporate losses are being reported. Diana Corp posts loss, and Ciena posts a record loss. It appears that a lot of companies are revealing their warts. Meanwhile the Wall Street pimps are crying and wailing that the jobless data is a lagging indicator - though when the jobless numbers are in decline they seem to think that it is a leading indicator. Hmmm... Meanwhile the numbers that really could are corporate NET profits, and those NET profits are getting rather scarce these days. In a word - "GRIM"

- Black Blade

JCF

(02/21/2002; 07:25:07 MDT - Msg ID: 70525)

Gold Guessing Contest

*****$291.7*****

Good luck to all Knights & Ladies!...

Go Gold. Go Silver.

White Rose

(02/21/2002; 07:25:42 MDT - Msg ID: 70526)

*** 292.20 ***

Continued short term pressure on gold. Long term prospects are excellent!

(02/21/2002; 08:18:08 MDT - Msg ID: 70527)

Price Guessing Contest

********$297.0*********
Just a technical retracement level...that's all.

G$

(02/21/2002; 08:31:08 MDT - Msg ID: 70528)

Cave Man / Nikkei

CNBC actually had a good point this morning. I don't follow international charts as much as I should, but apparently the Argentine market rallied shortly before the bottom fell out of the currency as people rushed to put their cash into ANYTHING! Doesn't make much sense to me to swap one kind of paper for another but that was her observation.

G$

Buena Fe

(02/21/2002; 08:50:48 MDT - Msg ID: 70530)

Contest

******$295.10******

We're stuck in the matrix of Ground-hog day (the movie with Bill Murray) until ....... the "Brilliant event" (by Mar15(?)) resets the cosmic clock and reality is percieved another way (the $ has no value).

Gandalf the White

(02/21/2002; 08:53:37 MDT - Msg ID: 70531)

Jump SPOT ! JUMP !!

SPOT Gold has lifted off in NY from the $290 level and is moving up !
BUT remember that it is the Feb '02 COMEX Option that the CONTEST is based upon, which should be close to SPOT, but may not be exactly the same !
<;-)

Neubie

(02/21/2002; 08:53:56 MDT - Msg ID: 70532)

Contest Entry

****$292.7****

Gold has been struggling all week and the manipulators seem to be effective in keeping the price down here a while longer.

USAGOLD Market Commentary

(02/21/2002; 09:27:01 MDT - Msg ID: 70533)

Gold Peers Over Foxhole Rim Following Bundesbank Blindside. . . . .NEWS & VIEWS Update!

Available online to all clientele and prospective clientele, NEWS & VIEWS Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has again been updated.

Read the full commentary and related information here. (access codes required)

New visitors may review these selected portions provided at the Daily Market Report page. You may enjoy our 24-Hour NewsWire provided at this page, also.

Galearis

(02/21/2002; 09:30:31 MDT - Msg ID: 70534)

@ Carl H re: Volume and Price Charts

Carl H (2/19/02; 00:36:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 70365)
Silver/Gold Price Graphs
***********************
Are there any silver or gold price graphs on the net that show volume (like the stock graphs)?
Thanaks!

{Ref:}
{http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/1920022/default.html}
**************************
There you go:

Gold: (April)
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/42

Silver: (March)
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/32

The Hoople

(02/21/2002; 09:52:06 MDT - Msg ID: 70535)

Comex jackal price in confetti paper

**** 295.8 ****

I think it was Marx who once referred to capitalists "quaking in their stolen boots". Maybe we should update that to bullion bankers quaking in their stolen Guccis. The new fad on Wall Street will be brown corduroy pants when gold leaves the paper game behind. Dow/Gold ratio 1:1 as Richard Russell says. Short fiat, long real money.

Black Blade

(02/21/2002; 09:52:49 MDT - Msg ID: 70536)

Japan's alarm bells toll on deaf ears

http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/story.html?f=/stories/20020221/120496.html

Fears rise banking system could collapse like a house of cards

Snippit:

Take Enron, multiply its off-balance-sheet debt by a trillion and what do you get? Japan. That's the joke making the rounds these days about the world's most dysfunctional economy.

"There are myriad problems with the banks, many of them covered up by impenetrable accounting conventions and an army of managers, regulators, auditors and credit raters who have been happy to look the other way for decades," said chief economist Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics in a recent report. "How else can a banking system run up a bad-debt book of 200-trillion yen -- US$1.5-trillion -- without triggering alarms."

There is an estimated 1,386-trillion yen (US$10.4-trillion) in private savings stashed away, which Japan could comfortably live off for years, analysts say. Current account figures last week showed Japan earned more from offshore investments and overseas subsidiaries in 2001 than from conventional trade, causing its income surplus to exceed its trade surplus for the first time on record.

Black Blade: G$ makes a good point that I didn't even consider. The Japanese are scared just as much as the Argentines and they are looking to put their Yen into something - anything, before the April Fools deadline for protected savings at insolvent Japanese banks. This could explain yesterday's 450+ rise on the Nikkei. If even 1% of that $10.4 Trillion in Japanese savings were to find its way into Gold - then look out! "Interesting Times"

Gimli_

(02/21/2002; 09:55:24 MDT - Msg ID: 70537)

Contest

******$293.40******

Having jumped in with an early guess that lost by one notch, I thought I would jump in late this time to prove that it just doesn't matter when you spin the wheel. ;-))

Black Blade

(02/21/2002; 10:07:29 MDT - Msg ID: 70538)

AIG Shares Fall on SEC Probe

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020221/business_financial_aig_stocks_dc_1.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Shares of American International Group Inc. (NYSE:AIG), the world's No. 1 insurer by market value, dropped more than 3 percent as unsettling reports about the company spooked investors.

Black Blade: Yep, another one.

Gandalf the White

(02/21/2002; 10:11:14 MDT - Msg ID: 70539)

The COMEX February '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST

ATTENTION all procrastinating prognosticators !!!
LESS than two hours remain before the DEADLINE to enter the CONTEST !!!!
Do not wait toooooo long.
<;-)

Boilermaker

(02/21/2002; 10:11:39 MDT - Msg ID: 70540)

Contest

********$293.10*******

Looks like the price drifting higher but expect Friday sellback. Also, a friend at JPM owes me a favor and will provide some market "guidance" tomorrow. Just kidding.

Many thanks to MK for the prize offering and Gandolf for running the contest.

Tommy P

(02/21/2002; 10:28:02 MDT - Msg ID: 70541)

www.kitco.com

I can't seem to get on line, is anyone else having the same problems??

sector

(02/21/2002; 10:33:32 MDT - Msg ID: 70542)

"Injection of Public Funds"...Japan Seeks "Salvation"

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3MNTDWXXC&live=true&tagid=IXLI0L9Z1BC
Tokyo jumps on talk of government measures
By Ken Hijino in Tokyo
Published: February 21 2002 01:19 | Last Updated: February 21 2002 12:07

Renewed speculation that the government may announce measures to combat deflation propelled the Tokyo market higher on Thursday.

The Nikkei 225 jumped 461.29, or 4.7 per cent, to 10,295.42 while the broader Topix 31.98, or 3.3 per cent, to 988.89. Gainers outnumbered fallers by 1,229 to 155, while a total of 787m shares exchanged hands.

Hopes that the government is about to emergency measures to boost the economy have been mounting after the governor of the Bank of Japan met with the prime minister earlier in the week.

Domestic media reported that Masaru Hayami, the BoJ governor, urged the prime minister to consider an injection of public funds into banks and that the two discussed anti-deflation measures on Tuesday.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

There is $620 Billion in Jappanese savings to be "uninsured" as of April 1rst 2002.

If the "injection of public funds" referred to above include THOSE savings via some kind of "nationalization" of the banks, then we don't have too much longer to wait for "The Big One".

(02/21/2002; 10:41:47 MDT - Msg ID: 70543)

Contest

****296.7****

It has been so long since I posted I didn't know if my password would still work. However I am always interested in an opportunity to add a little "precious" to the coffers. As I am writing this post Feb Gold stands at 293.4, up a little on the day. The Stock market is struggling to keep a smile on it's face but I doubt it can maintain upbeat through tomorrow. I anticipate gold will move up a little tomorrow as investors begin to look for safety to get them through the weekend.

nickel62

(02/21/2002; 10:57:38 MDT - Msg ID: 70544)

Just incase you thougth Robert Rubin wasn't involved!

Lay's Lobbying Reached the Top of Treasury
Enron Chief Leaned Hard as Company Sought to Avoid U.S. Oversight of Derivatives Deals
By Kathleen Day and James V. Grimaldi
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, February 21, 2002; Page E01

Enron Corp. chief executive Kenneth L. Lay offered then-Treasury Secretary Robert E. Rubin a seat on Enron's board of directors in 1999, when Enron was lobbying intensely to block government efforts to regulate its derivatives-trading business.

Letters and other documents released yesterday by the Treasury Department under a Freedom of Information Act request by The Washington Post and other news organizations show how Lay sought to influence the Clinton administration on issues affecting Enron. Lay also sought help from Bush administration officials last fall before the company filed for bankruptcy protection.

Lay wrote to Rubin two days after Rubin announced he would step down as President Bill Clinton's treasury secretary and about two months before he turned over the job to Lawrence H. Summers. Rubin rejected the offer of an Enron board seat.

A few months later, Lay referred to his connections with Rubin in a letter to Summers, urging Treasury officials to back off from proposals to regulate Enron's trading in financial products, known as derivatives, that were tied to energy commodities. Enron was preparing to launch an online operation to trade energy derivatives.

The Clinton administration, led by Treasury officials, decided against government oversight of derivative traders such as Enron. In December 2000, Congress adopted that policy in legislation that exempted from government oversight the kind of energy derivative contracts traded by Enron.

"The debate was not about deregulation, it was about an absence of regulation," Commodity Futures Exchange Commissioner Thomas J. Erickson, a Clinton appointee, said in an interview. Erickson was opposed to the portion of the bill that removed energy derivative contracts from government oversight.

Some market experts -- including former Treasury undersecretary of finance Gary Gensler, who served under Rubin and Summers -- said derivatives transactions didn't cause Enron's collapse. Still, others said the market should not be unregulated.

Enron relied heavily on derivatives in two ways. It traded them to capture profits across all its businesses. Enron's executives also used derivatives in complex financial transactions that distorted the financial picture that Enron projected to investors.

"I just hope we don't have to have another crisis in the financial markets to get everyone's attention," said Sen. Jon S. Corzine (D-N.J.), an advocate of increased regulation of derivatives.

Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) has introduced legislation to give the Commodity Futures Trading Commission more authority to oversee energy derivatives by revoking some provisions of the 2000 law, though it is unclear how much chance it has of passing. That would return the rules to what they were before the 2000 legislation, when the commission had some jurisdiction over companies such as Enron, Erickson said.

Over-the-counter derivatives are financial contracts that are not traded on a formal exchange. Their worth is based on the value of underlying stocks or bonds, interest rates, currencies, pork bellies, electricity, gold, metals or other commodities. They are used to hedge against the risk of price fluctuations or to speculate on those changes.

Federal bank regulators oversee banks that deal in over-the-counter derivatives. The Securities and Exchange Commission oversees securities firms that trade them. But there is no direct monitoring of the actual trading of over-the-counter derivatives. So derivatives traders such as Enron that are not affiliated with a bank or securities firm operate without government monitoring. As the government was trying to decide what kind of oversight -- if any -- was proper for these kinds of traders, Lay made his overture to Rubin.

In a May 14, 1999, letter, Lay wrote: "If you are considering joining any corporate boards, I would very much like to talk to you.

"Given the way Enron has evolved, not only do we badly need a person with your experience and insights (gained both at Goldman Sachs and at the U.S. Treasury), but also I think you would find serving on our board intellectually and otherwise interesting."

Lay said in the letter he also had placed a call to Rubin "in the hope that I mention this to you personally."

"Bob Rubin was offered 30 to 40 board memberships. Rubin had no interest; he declined," said Leah Johnson, a Citigroup spokeswoman.

Rubin became chairman of the executive committee of Citigroup, one of Enron's main creditors, after leaving Treasury. Last fall, when Enron ran into financial trouble, Rubin contacted Treasury Undersecretary Peter Fisher asking "what he thought of the idea" of calling bond-rating agencies to help forestall a crippling reduction in Enron's credit rating.

Fisher told Rubin that he didn't think it was advisable and he didn't make a call, Treasury officials have said.

In a letter sent on the same day as Lay's letter to Rubin, Lay wrote to congratulate Summers, the incoming Treasury secretary. "I can't imagine anybody better prepared" for the job, Lay said.

Five months later, in another letter, Lay complained to Summers about proposals to regulate over-the-counter derivatives. Lay said he was upset that the Treasury's assistant general counsel, John Yetter, had said at a public forum that the President's Working Group on Financial Markets might recommend regulation of "otherwise unregulated entities, such as Enron" that trade in derivatives.

"As you would expect, we are troubled by being singled out, but even more troubled by the notion that financial regulators may be considering any regulation of OTC [over-the-counter] dealers, particularly in the energy field, where we believe derivatives are truly customer based risk management tools," Lay wrote.

"Enron believes there is no need for any additional regulation" because there have been no problems," Lay wrote. He then asked for a chance "to make our case" if increased regulation were in the offing and requested "a call or note" in reply.

Lay concluded by referring to Summers's previous boss. "I spent some time with Bob Ruben [sic] in Shanghai last week and he appears to be doing very well," Lay wrote. "I must say he looked more relaxed than I have seen him in years."

The next month, in November 1999, the working group's report was returned and Summers sent a copy to Lay, telling him that it "is not recommending legislative action with respect to derivatives dealers [such as Enron] that are unaffiliated with a federally regulated entity at this time."

"My formulaic response to Lay's letter speaks for itself in making clear that the Treasury Department's position is set out in several previously issued reports," Summers said yesterday.

Lay said in his letter to Summers: "There have been no problems in the energy derivatives market that warrant regulation." But over-the-counter derivatives have been involved in a series of scandals over the past decade.

In 1994, Bankers Trust suffered significant losses on derivatives when two clients, Gibson Greetings Inc. and Procter & Gamble Co., refused to honor their obligations, arguing that Bankers Trust had misled them.

That same year, Orange County, Calif., reported a $1.7 billion loss on derivatives sold by Merrill Lynch and other major derivative dealers, leading the county to seek bankruptcy protection. In 1995, Britain's oldest investment bank, Barings, collapsed from more than $1 billion in losses related to derivatives trading.

Three years later, a giant Connecticut hedge fund, Long-Term Capital Management L.P., which relied heavily on over-the-counter derivatives to speculate on the difference in values among various currencies, nearly failed.

"There ought to be more regulation of derivatives given the explosion of the market," said Lynn Turner, former chief accountant for the Securities and Exchange Commission. "When you get a more regulated market -- meaning more transparency in pricing -- you not only get better pricing but it provides a more efficient market, because more people will trust it and participate."

Also among the correspondence released yesterday are letters to Treasury advocating and praising officials for taking free-trade, deregulatory stands in energy markets overseas and with the World Trade Organization. Lay also asked Treasury Secretary Paul H. O'Neill last year to speak before a meeting of the Business Council, a group of U.S. corporate leaders.

Staff writer Peter Behr and researcher Lucy Shackelford contributed to this report.

Gandalf the White

(02/21/2002; 11:14:58 MDT - Msg ID: 70545)

TICK TOCK !

ATTENTION all procrastinating prognosticators !!!
The DEADLINE to enter the CONTEST is HIGH NOON in Denver.
Thsi is in about 45 MINUTES !
This will be my last call for "CONTEST GUESSES"
<;-)

SEEKER OF THE GOLDEN GRAIL

(02/21/2002; 11:46:02 MDT - Msg ID: 70546)

CONTEST ENTRY

****$293.10****
The big move begins in April /May of this year and explodes in July as investors flee paper assets such as stocks and bonds. As stock market and dollar bubble deflates, bonds will reverse its last 5 year divergence course and instead of heading higher will fall along with the dollar and stock market. Gold will soar as its the only store of value outside the financial system.

bob leppo

(02/21/2002; 11:46:28 MDT - Msg ID: 70547)

contest entry

I predict $298.20

Mr Gresham

(02/21/2002; 12:00:22 MDT - Msg ID: 70548)

Fiat Triangle

Just some offhand "thinking like a crim --er, banker -- here.

Europe is interested in stability while its Euro grows in use and depth through world markets. Early upsets to the dollar and yen could create a backwash that drives TOO much interest toward gold, over Euros, among some of its sought-after "clients".

Japan's crisis might be coming on a little too much, too fast, for the liking of Euro's managers? US (and US media) seem to be letting the Japan crisis "cat out of the bag" more candidly than they usually do for world-upsetting crises, d'ya think? US Prez goes to Japan to put even more spotlight on it in weeks ahead.

US sees itself as a mighty tanker (not yet a Titanic one), and sees Euro as a tiny tugboat. Why not throw it a hot potato -- "Here! YOU manage the crisis." Capital flight has gone TO US and USD in past crises; why not play that trump card one more time, against the new guy at the table, while his stake is still comparatively small?

A little "jawboning" gold down among Euro managers doesn't cost them anything, might just deflate a little sense of crisis momentum?

"When you're playing with fiat, you're playing for time."

Operative

(02/21/2002; 12:02:33 MDT - Msg ID: 70549)

Forget Enron...It's Japan

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=26544Snip
we in America remain
preoccupied with Enron and
the largest business
bankruptcy ever, the Japan
economy, as a whole, is
facing panic and default on a
scale few in the West can
imagine, let alone foresee.
Rygi Musha, a Japanese
strategist for the Deutsche
Bank in Japan probably put
the most ominous words to it.
He said, "The world is
heading for a
once-in-a-century economic
crisis." >

*** Apologize in advance if already posted, or if this is considered "promotional material". A story worth reading, maybe even twice.

Mr Gresham

(02/21/2002; 12:11:21 MDT - Msg ID: 70550)

Japanese account protection limit

BTW, somebody else must be wondering about this and wanting confirmation: The limit on account protections is per ACCOUNT, not per person or family, right?

As it's always said with FDIC coverage, you just open another account, at another bank, and you're "covered". (I don't think you get it on two accounts at the same bank, unless it's in a different family member's name, right?)

For the terribly wealthy, of course, they might have trouble finding enough banks to spread it over, but we'd all love to have problems like that, eh? Plus, it would be hard to consolidate the accountholder's information over many banks, without centralizing all of the FDIC "insurance" info.

(If you're nationalizing a big part of your banking system all at once, as Japan may be headed toward, then this centralized "insurance" becomes more conceivable.)

Anyway, the new Japanese limit is half-practical problem, half-psychological worry-maker at this point. And wasn't there some mention of it becoming a per-person, not per-account, coverage one year after this upcoming changeover, which would then close the multi-bank option?

Gandalf the White

(02/21/2002; 12:15:25 MDT - Msg ID: 70551)

OFFICIAL listing of Guesses in COMEX GC2G close CONTEST

Over 100 are in the running for the LUCKY ANGEL !Now the BAD news about a "last minute" entry.
---
ONE Dublicate Entry !! (which I must disqualify)
--
SEEKER OF THE GOLDEN GRAIL (02/21/02; 11:46:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 70546)
CONTEST ENTRY
****$293.10****
SORRY "SOTGG", but Boilermaker just beat you to this number.
<;-(

===
FINAL LISTING OF PROGNOSTICATIONS !!

GUESSES in order of DECENDING Value

****$8,752.0**** The Invisible Hand (2/18/02; 01:46:17MT msg#: 70296
****$5,126.0**** R Powell (02/18/02; 13:19:28MT msg#: 70320

****$1,500.0**** LimitUp (02/14/02; 23:41:07MT msg#: 70090

****$929.0**** golden rule (02/14/02; 18:10:01MT msg#: 70049

****$448.4**** techbull.... (02/16/02; 22:30:45MT msg#: 70224

****$437.5**** Econoclast (02/14/02; 19:05:57MT msg#: 70063

****$379.0**** sstins (02/14/02; 14:34:25MT msg#: 70015

****$352.2**** goldquest (02/14/02; 13:52:51MT msg#: 70010

****$339.0**** rsjacksr (02/15/02; 20:15:47MT msg#: 70164

****$333.3**** Guided (02/16/02; 14:33:23MT msg#: 70206

****$329.1****.Clint H (2/15/02; 09:40:17MT msg#: 70111
****$329.0**** ROSEBUD99 (2/15/02; 09:32:21MT msg#: 70110

****$327.6**** RobotGuy (2/15/02; 08:09:30MT msg#: 70104

****$324.1**** auenboy (02/17/02; 19:31:09MT msg#: 70281

****$320.4**** Rock (02/18/02; 16:33:35MT msg#: 70328

****$320.2**** Tommy P (02/16/02; 13:33:42MT msg#: 70201

****$320.0**** Henri (02/20/02; 16:58:42MT msg#: 70482
****$319.9**** Pizz (02/14/02; 22:52:31MT msg#: 70084
****$319.8**** Shermag (02/17/02; 18:38:33MT msg#: 70278

****$319.2**** MidEastGold (2/15/02; 07:05:36MT msg#: 70102

****$318.2**** A Canadian (02/14/02; 14:36:41MT msg#: 70016

****$317.9**** wiley (02/14/02; 20:41:56MT msg#: 70076

****$316.3**** slingshot (02/14/02; 14:22:58MT msg#: 70012

****$315.3**** CoBra(too) (02/17/02; 17:57:15MT msg#: 70277

****$315.0**** neer-do-well (02/16/02; 21:14:28MT msg#: 70217

****$314.0**** nickel62 (2/19/02; 08:47:16MT msg#: 70377

****$313.5**** KTC (02/17/02; 22:25:55MT msg#: 70288)

****$313.4**** pdeep (02/18/02; 16:25:02MT msg#: 70326

****$313.0**** DOWNUNDER (02/20/02; 18:43:09MT msg#: 70487

****$312.5**** darkhorse (02/14/02; 13:35:52MT msg#: 70009

****$312.1**** Voyager (2/15/02; 12:50:14MT msg#: 70138

****$310.0**** Boxman (02/15/02; 18:52:21MT msg#: 70160

****$309.7**** Hektor (02/16/02; 14:31:01MT msg#: 70205

****$309.5**** Siochain (02/14/02; 20:07:10MT msg#: 70070

****$308.7**** law (02/14/02; 22:17:01MT msg#: 70080

****$308.1**** goldenpeace (02/14/02; 13:22:48MT msg#: 70008

****$307.9**** Jon (2/15/02; 13:02:47MT msg#: 70141

****$307.7**** Waverider (02/14/02; 15:13:23MT msg#: 70021

****$306.1**** EagleOne (02/14/02; 14:27:04MT msg#: 70014

****$305.4**** Achilles (2/15/02; 05:25:21MT msg#: 70099

****$305.0**** Broken Tee (2/15/02; 14:32:54MT msg#: 70143

****$304.7**** Angel (02/17/02; 19:55:18MT msg#: 70282

****$304.5**** Joepmbull (02/18/02; 11:39:21MT msg#: 70318
****$304.4**** Solomon Weaver (02/16/02; 10:53:18MT msg#: 70190

****$304.2**** balzac (02/14/02; 17:34:42MT msg#: 70041

****$303.8**** uponroof (02/14/02; 14:24:30MT msg#: 70013

****$303.3**** AUtistic (02/17/02; 07:13:15MT msg#: 70236

****$303.1**** Operative (2/16/02; 03:47:42MT msg#: 70184

****$302.5**** Canuck Gold (02/14/02; 15:09:18MT msg#: 70019

****$302.3**** Mythical (02/14/02; 21:42:32MT msg#: 70079

****$301.9**** goldroadlx7 (02/16/02; 12:39:41MT msg#: 70195

****$301.0**** Christian (02/17/02; 06:47:49MT msg#: 70235

****$300.1**** VanRip (02/14/02; 18:25:51MT msg#: 70054

****$299.9**** Artie Farkle (2/15/02; 02:08:09MT msg#: 70097

****$299.0**** Carl H (02/14/02; 14:20:24MT msg#: 70011

****$298.7**** Truthcaster (02/14/02; 18:25:45MT msg#: 70053

****$298.4**** Topaz (02/14/02; 23:39:21MT msg#: 70089

****$298.2**** bob leppo (02/21/02; 11:46:28MT msg#: 70547

****$298.0**** Goldilocks 1 (2/20/02; 08:11:44MT msg#: 70450
****$297.9**** Knallgold (2/15/02; 07:47:09MT msg#: 70103

****$297.4**** auric (02/18/02; 22:11:08MT msg#: 70360
****$297.3**** Richman (02/20/02; 13:09:30MT msg#: 70466

****$297.0**** G$ (2/21/02; 08:18:08MT msg#: 70527

****$296.7**** The CoinGuy (02/14/02; 17:14:39MT msg#: 70037

****$297.0**** Brett Woods (02/20/02; 22:51:23MT msg#: 70503

****$296.7**** JA (02/21/02; 10:41:47MT msg#: 70543)

****$296.4**** Au-some (2/19/02; 07:22:18MT msg#: 70373

****$295.8**** The Hoople (02/21/02; 09:52:06MT msg#: 70535

****$295.6**** coco (02/18/02; 16:29:13MT msg#: 70327

****$295.1**** Buena Fe (02/21/02; 08:50:48MT msg#: 70530
****$295.0****.Beowulf (2/19/02; 15:47:47MT msg#: 70413

****$294.8**** The Victorian (02/20/02; 20:56:17MT msg#: 70496

****$294.5**** turkey hunter (02/18/02; 15:05:26MT msg#: 70322

****$294.1**** BIG JOHN (2/21/02; 00:59:32MT msg#: 70512
****$294.0**** Canuck (2/21/02; 04:41:16MT msg#: 70517
****$293.9**** Maiden Fan (02/20/02; 23:26:42MT msg#: 70504
****$293.8**** Goldenmean (02/21/02; 02:10:20MT msg#: 70514

****$293.6**** sourdough (02/20/02; 11:05:24MT msg#: 70462

****$293.4**** Gimli_ (02/21/02; 09:55:24MT msg#: 70537
****$293.3**** jlfletc (02/20/02; 12:14:44MT msg#: 70463

****$293.1**** Boilermaker (02/21/02; 10:11:39MT msg#: 70540
****$293.0**** Flatlander (02/17/02; 10:39:58MT msg#: 70249

****$292.8**** Trapper (02/14/02; 19:44:13MT msg#: 70067
****$292.7**** Neubie (02/21/02; 08:53:56MT msg#: 70532)

****$292.5**** Black Blade (02/20/02; 20:07:46MT msg#: 70493
****$292.4**** Yellow Jacket (02/18/02; 19:32:27MT msg#: 70341

****$292.2**** White Rose (2/21/02; 07:25:42MT msg#: 70526)

****$292.0**** Grubstaker (02/14/02; 22:50:18MT msg#: 70083
****$291.9**** silvercollector (02/15/02; 16:41:09MT msg#: 70149
****$291.8**** Novice Bear (02/20/02; 10:51:47MT msg#: 70460
****$291.7**** JCF (2/21/02; 07:25:07MT msg#: 70525

****$291.5**** Max Rabbitz (2/19/02; 21:24:30MT msg#: 70430

****$291.0**** Humble Pie (02/20/02; 14:35:45MT msg#: 70469
****$290.9**** kludge (02/18/02; 13:15:21MT msg#: 70319

****$290.7**** Narroway Walk (2/21/02; 03:51:47MT msg#: 70516

****$290.5**** mikal (02/20/02; 22:03:35MT msg#: 70499)
****$290.4**** John Doe (02/17/02; 23:06:16MT msg#: 70289

****$290.1**** Lamprey (2/21/02; 05:48:58MT msg#: 70519
****$290.0**** HOOSIER GOLDBUG (02/14/02; 15:50:12MT msg#: 70031
****$289.9**** miner49er (02/14/02; 15:30:03MT msg#: 70026
****$289.8**** TEX (02/20/02; 23:38:25MT msg#: 70506

****$289.4**** Wky_Woodsman (2/20/02; 01:08:19MT msg#: 70435

****$288.8**** ausome (2/19/02; 12:02:49MT msg#: 70390

****$286.8**** Paten (02/20/02; 16:58:35MT msg#: 70481

****$284.0**** OpalBill (02/18/02; 18:58:30MT msg#: 70335

****$274.9**** Frosty (02/14/02; 18:55:58MT msg#: 70060
###########################
THE RULES (revisited) --
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of
(GC2G) on the date of Friday the 22th of February.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "stars" *****
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as *****$543.2*****
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Thursday, Feb. 21th.
6) A short "WHY" discussion paragraph should accompany your prognostication.
===
<;-)

sector

(02/21/2002; 12:55:30 MDT - Msg ID: 70552)

Japanese Switching Deposits to "Reduce" Uninsured Assets

IF that were happening the deposits in smaller banks would be rising...they are actually falling. This is an indication that the Japanese already know that most smaller banks are just as insolvent as the big ones.

The real economic "ball" is in the hands of the elderly Japanese with their life savings on the line [$150,000 for the 60s group and $157,000 for the 70s and over group].

No matter how it is derived the amount of uninsured savings in Japanese is vast. My numbers say $621 Billion, others say $1.5 trillion. The bottom line is that if only a tiny fraction of that wealth is transferred to gold for security then the demand will be staggering...in the thousands of tonnes.

This damand will break the cabal...the equation is that simple. Watch Japan...but if one waits too much longer, the gold boat will be gone.

Creosote

(02/21/2002; 13:01:35 MDT - Msg ID: 70553)

Contest

****303.5**** I believe the powers that be have not entirely given up on their agenda, or my guess would be much hirer

Gandalf the White

(02/21/2002; 13:39:39 MDT - Msg ID: 70554)

The CONTEST is now placed into the USAGOLD vault to await tomorrow's results !

Sorry Creosote, too late ! (2/21/02; 13:01:35MT msg#: 70553)The DEADLINE time has passed and ALL ENRIES are RECORDED! FYI, the "Settlement" price on the Feb '02 COMEX contract today was $293.2 --- and there are less than 24 hours before we shall know to whom the LUCKY ANGEL will be greeting !
Best wishes to all.
<;-)

Rock

(02/21/2002; 13:58:40 MDT - Msg ID: 70555)

Chief Economist of CNBC speaks of Japan

there was a quick moment when i was watching squat box this morning that the chief economist of CNBC i forgot her name ( i think it was marie but not marie b) anyway she confirmed what the knights and ladies have been discussing here at the table regarding Japan. Mark Hans mentioned to her that Japan has been near bankruptcy before and the banks will bail them out again but marie told him its different this time and that people in japan are buying gold for protection. it was a wonderful moment in deed.

if i may say to the knights and ladies the way i see it is that gold is a lot like a huge volcano. Sometimes it smokes and does get the streets attention but then when the smoke dies down so does the interest but then like mt. saint helens one day she blows and when she blows the destruction and loss is great. so will it be with gold.

and likewise when this enonomy blows it going to be big. gold acts the same way sometimes it smokes like the volcanowhen it goes up 30% one month and other times no one pays much attentino when it goes back down 20% or whatever.

like the volcano it gets attention from time to time and even though the warning signs are there in the precious metals market as they were before mt st helen blew the masses still refused to acknowledge the hard core facts until it was too late. so will it be with gold.

i feel finanially safer with the PM's because no matter what happens to the economy i have something i can put my hands on. i think it was cavern man who mentioned how when he made his first investment as a child he went to the bank to purchase some silver coins but the represenative at the bank convienced him to take the silver certificate instead.

after getting home cavern man remembered looking down at the glorified piece a paper in his hand and feeling he got ripped off and thats my sentiment exactly. good day and don't lose hope, we have come a long way and like the fearless horse on the battle field who can smell war, so we can sense something big is about to happen in the precious metal markets.

AU_Poor

(02/21/2002; 14:04:41 MDT - Msg ID: 70556)

Japanese bank account insurance/protection

Do the Japanese banks have insurance similar to the FDIC? Wonder how many failed banks can be bailed out at $75,000 per account until that insurance fund is depleted? Then what?

If I were in a situation where a large scale banking failure could occur, the last place I would want ANY of my money would be an insolvent bank.

sector

(02/21/2002; 14:38:36 MDT - Msg ID: 70557)

Marshall Auerbach...On Japan

http://www.prudentbear.com/international.htm[...
Above all else, the condition of over indebtedness creates a problem of demand. It is not the failure to write-off bad loans that inhibits recovery. Indeed, consider the consequences were the problem loans to be written off more aggressively, as both Messrs. Bush and O'Neill advocate: banks would be selling more and more property assets into the market, thereby depressing underlying asset values more and further undermining the ability of households to service their debts, given the corresponding decline of the largest asset on their personal balance sheets: their respective property holdings. By the same token on the corporate side, when the banks call in loans and companies try to repay debt, firms liquidate assets and reduce expenditures on labour and capital. These actions further depress economic activity, prices, corporate cash flows and the ability of borrowers to service debts.

As Andrew Smithers notes, if the decline in outstanding bank loans and the consequent weakness of money supply were due to the unwillingness of banks to extend loans to healthy borrowers, then there would be some merit in the call by Bush for Japan to get its bad loan problem sorted out once and for all. But recovery is not going to be aided by encouraging cash rich companies to dissipate their savings by investing in uneconomic projects (at a time when Japanese capital expenditure is still well above historic trend), nor by enabling bankrupt companies to borrow more money. In addition, there is nothing stopping non-Japanese banks, which do not have comparable problems to their Japanese counterparts, from stepping into the breach and providing loans to Japanese companies if conditions generally warranted it. After all, these banks were desperate to break into the Japanese domestic loan market during the bubble years, so now would seem to be their golden opportunity to increase market share rapidly.

But there has been no dramatic growth in lending by foreign banks, which one might have expected, if the problems facing Japan were simply one of sickly domestic banks unable or unwilling to extend credit and thereby frustrating recovery, rather than one of acutely depressed domestic demand. Therefore, the assertion that the country's problems are compounded by a troubled banking system burdened by NPLs, which in turn discourages new lending to worthy borrowing recipients, is not an accurate characterisation of Japan's current woes.

It follows that simply getting the banks to deal with their problem loans once and for all is not the panacea that the President has suggested during his recent trip. Stimulating demand is what is required, likely far in excess of what is generally appreciated by those with a strong adherence to the economic orthodoxy of the past twenty years, especially with private investment likely to remain very weak, as it did in the United States between 1933-1937. This means adopting a policy that inflates away the debt and facilitating further consumption as the real cost of debt servicing falls.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

There is no way out. If Japan inflates and the yen keeps falling, the yen price of gold soars and the rush is on in earnest. If they don't inflate the insurance companies, which must pay 5% but earn only 1% soon die taking the weak banks with them.

Japan is damned if they do and damned if they don't and the only winner is gold.

TownCrier

(02/21/2002; 15:17:33 MDT - Msg ID: 70558)

Mr. Gresham asks,

"And wasn't there some mention of it becoming a per-person, not per-account, coverage one year after this upcoming changeover..."

I believe it was somewhere around two weeks ago that I posted a brief bit on the two-phase aspect of this over the next year.

Quickly stated, phase two implemented next April (2003) will be such that the new limitations on deposit insurance will become effective for transaction accounts in addition to savings accounts.

R.

Black Blade

(02/21/2002; 15:49:42 MDT - Msg ID: 70559)

US Dollar in Devaluation!

The US Dollar is devaluing against Gold. The dollar now stands at a mere 0.0034013 oz.of Gold and falling. The case is even more extreme for other World currencies. And the YEN and Euro? Pathetic.

CoBra(too)

(02/21/2002; 16:12:35 MDT - Msg ID: 70560)

@ Sector - Re. your Marshal Auerbach Essay -

Wich I find not only compelling, but also the recipe the Us has been following for a long time. The Japanese bubble burst back in 1989 and as someone put it 'followed down a river of hope', which probably now flows into the sea of sorrow.

The first US bubble the NASDAQ burst 2 years ago and the rest of the Equity and Bond Markets will follow. The next one already cracking at the seams may be the credit bubble. Wouldn't it then follow that the Dollar bubble will also deflate.
Taking down the western monetary (trial)system of free floating currencies with it? Including the great ideas of SDR's being the "ersatz" lender of last resort as the IMF, World Bank and the FED, instead of gold as the final arbiter of value.

It occurs to me that any fiat system based on promises, and measured according to economic performance is an invite to cheat. And a system based on the above and also has a bonus of the one and only major reserve currency, or seignorage of the leading currency is like a pack of stacked cards, or simply just a house of cards.

For years the cracks of the system were merely papered over. All of you here know what I'm talking about. But now we may have a totally mired Japan taking down rapidly the rest of the former S.E.A Tigers. We also have Argentina doing the same for S.A.

And we have an unprecedented debt level in the US, is it private, corporate or government. And above all, the trust in the institutions, not only to observe fairness of markets is waning rapidly.

In an environment where the financial sector placing Trillion Dollar bets, leveraging their last Dollar by multiples of hundred, we call it hedging? Now this policy of unprecedented growth of the derivative mania is cracking wide open - and we all hear the position of the derivative notional value of JMPC surpassing 29 Trillion. Three times of the US annual GDP - call that hedging! - and 35 Trillion are reported to be gold hedges. Gold hedges are really physical short positions. As it has been written, too big to fail - too big to bail, says it all.

As I wondered why BuBa's Wetelke made his gold remarks recently. I don't anymore, though I'm kind'a convinced the gold's strong fundamentals will deny any victory for long to the meddlers.

Cheers cb2

PS:@ MK - Gold for our Steff and Silver for a phantastic second run of Bode in the olympic giant slalom - what a race. Compelled to say told you so, no, I say congrats to both!

kludge

(02/21/2002; 17:18:26 MDT - Msg ID: 70561)

Has gold's purchasing power really been eroded?

Can ANYONE point me to information/research that gold purchases' less today than it has over the last, say, 2000 years? I discount the late seventies/early eighties as holding gold was just recently legalized (surely the currently illegal drugs would violently fluctuate in price should they be legalized overnight).

This was the basis of my first/second posts here, and in digging on my own I have yet to find where gold's purchasing power has been eroded. Don't get me wrong, I'm pro-physical gold - just trying to honestly find some evidence that the gold price is being manipulated.

I have done some modest research into prices in the first century AD and found the cost of items in gold to be, at least, comparable to prices today on wheat and garments (food/shelter, two of our most basic needs). In fact, many items are cheaper today. And while an ounce of gold won't buy you an Armani suit today, it will buy a suitcoat, trousers, vest, shirt, and tie at JC Penney's (tailoring is free according to the Mrs). (oops, just checked and found Armani suits on sale for $350 dollars on the Internet).

Prices seem similar in Japan (when considering 39,000 Yen to an oz of gold):
http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/kouri/15i5.htm

I can post my refs for the value of gold in much earlier days, if anyone's interested, so that you may do your own math on how many grams in an Aureus gold piece, and how many modius's (modii?) of wheat it would buy.

So where's a gold cabal/collusion play into this if gold buys about today what it bought then? Granted the physical couldn't meet the paper-playing demand, and investing in something no one (noone?) can deliver seems ill advised, but even taking this into account - it appears that gold still buys about what it always has.

I didn't buy gold as an investment, but as savings instrument. "DOWN DOW, DOWN" and "JUMP SPOT, JUMP" seems to me, at least if taken to extreme, to be begging for an economic upheaval in the world that would be devastating (except for maybe Japanese housewives and the oil states?). Everyone here seem like good people that wouldn't want third-world oil countries ruling the world and BB's bone-pile growing just so they could make a buck, so what am I missing please? If the cabal's the cause, where's the effect? And type slowly, I'm not an economist but I am a slow reader :)

AdvThanksVance

nickel62

(02/21/2002; 17:26:35 MDT - Msg ID: 70562)

Does anyone know?

If Daniel Pearl is related to Richard Pearl the past Undersecretary of Defense?

Mr Gresham

(02/21/2002; 17:38:29 MDT - Msg ID: 70563)

kludge

"Type slowly...I'm a slow reader" sounds like about the smartest request I've seen yet on an Internet forum.

And I don't think we want bad things to happen to people -- it's a complex bunch of fears, hopes and expectations, but I guess you could say what we want most is for the truth to come out, so we can keep a simpler set of life's books in our heads, and so that other people can learn to do the same.

We think they've been misled, by some sharp dealers, and by their own wishful thinking -- so it's frustrating to try and pin the blame somewhere. Being the bearer of bad news is a dangerous occupation -- the inventor of a lip zipper might have a market among us?

Plus we're not absolutely sure that WE are right, in all ways about all occasions, so we're looking for some reality confirmation sometime. Of course, with markets, that means it's then too late to improve one's own position once absolute confirmation is received.

Economics and psychology -- two "soft" sciences that rule people's lives ruthlessly, with few groundrules in place for keeping things on an even keel...

nickel62

(02/21/2002; 17:38:55 MDT - Msg ID: 70564)

Kluge,

The thrust of the arguement on the value of gold is that it's value has and can be manipulated by those who hold very large stocks to push up the price of paper money by forcing the spot market price of gold down. If it takes only $393 pieces of green paper printed with dead president's pictures to buy one once then the rest of the world must accept the US dollars for the output of their goods and services at a rate that is comparable. The brilliance of the poly is that the US "strong dollar policy" by escalating the value of the US dollar is then able to determine the market price of the output of all our trading partners in terms of our dollar. This is central to understanding what is going on since this then allows the owners of the power to print US dollars and/or create them through the fractional reserver banking system to put tremendous pressure on whatever commodity market or financial market they chose to "fix" the market price at a level that allows them to absorb in the trading function all of the value added of all the manufacturing and commodity producing nations of the world. The game involves the insistance that they accept the US dollar as payment at whatever exchange rate they set and transfer their output to us at the price the US determines. It is a new electronic form of colonialism that effectively vaccums the value added from the producers and captures it in the trading accounts of those firms that can manipulate the spot markets. Those manipulations are made possible by the unlimited leverage that is possible from a combination of printing power of money in a fiat system and the unlimited magnification that is possible through the use of derivatives.

CoBra(too)

(02/21/2002; 18:38:37 MDT - Msg ID: 70565)

Great Post - Nickel62 - Thanks

I was probably trying to think along a similar thread in my last post - though youv'e nailed it.

Don't ever trust the bloody foreigners, like me ... to come right to the point - even if I think to think in your lingo, I still have up and down days - and that's one of 'em.

Though, as seignorage not only allows to hide "price inflation" over time - by supressing its main barometer, gold - it also contains price hikes in any fundamental commodity on the convienient futures market. The problem is, amongst others, it deprives the producers of these fundamental commodities of their fair price; And it also traps the domestic manufacturing industry into outsourcing their workforce.

For a while a semblance of the balance may be upheld by the fiction of technological advances, dubbed enhanced productivity. A myth, again, which is now starting to to gain popular disbelief.

As an aside, in european malls there is one growing sector -next to bio-produce, which is called "Fair Trade" - where the consumer is paying voluntarily a higher market price. It's not charity, it's in order to keep your producer ... eh, producing.

OK, eventually seignorage and futures (derivative) paper price "fixing" will "price" all producers out of the market. The US $ fix to the Argentino Peso did just that - and from here on the "21" will only serve the last meager long horns as NY T-Bone, or eventually a medium rare CPMC, with mashed Enron's on the side, topped by gravy of Citi.

Help yourself - cb2

Black Blade

(02/21/2002; 19:15:55 MDT - Msg ID: 70566)

THE NEW DEPRESSION - Part 1

THE NEW DEPRESSION

I watched a segment on CNBC as three economists (Bill Dudley US Chief Economist, Ken Schoenholtz, and Steve Slifer) said that the US Recession is over. Now that's interesting. Didn't these professional economists miss the start of the US Recession? It would appear that though they could not even see the Recession for more than a year after it had started that now they are so quick to declare the Recession over.

I don't buy it. I hope that it is true, however, we are not talking about the most intelligent or honest people here.

A NEW DEPRESSION?

First we have only to look at the most basic facts and we can see that the US economy is in real trouble. When stocks crashed in 1929, the major US corporations were flush with cash and most were debt free. Remember that was in 1929 - the beginning of the Great Depression! Today US corporations are in debt to the tune of $4.7 Trillion. That is not all that far from equaling the US National Debt! According to the US Federal Reserve, this debt is rising at a pace three times faster than the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - that is greater than the value of all the goods and services produced by the entire US economy! Recession is the least of our problems.

I have just mentioned the 1929 stock crash that signaled the start of the Great Depression. So far this Recession has racked up losses that make the entire Great Depression look like a walk in the park. This crash (the implosion of the Tech, dot.com, and general stock speculative manias) has sucked out over $5 Trillion from investor's pockets - many of them retirees who can least afford these gigantic losses. That's $5 Trillion gone! - Yep, GONE TO MONEY HEAVEN! Yeah I know that president Dubya and congress has promised the American public tax cuts totaling $1.7 Trillion over the next ten years, but let's face it - that is pitiful. It is woefully inadequate to stimulate the US economy.

Heck, there are about 47 million US Baby-Boomers who will retire over the next five years. After such a big hit to their investment portfolios what kind of retirement will these poor folks have to look forward to? They are tapped out. They are not likely to be buying a lot of goods and services that is expected to light a fire under a new US economic recovery. They are mostly scared sh**less! They know that they can't survive on Social Security alone. (I'm not even going to get into that right now - it would fill volumes).

And we haven't even considered what impact the implosion of the Japanese and South American economies will have. Today data was released that shows a drop of 8% in the US trade deficit. Yeah, that's nice. So US citizens aren't buying as many foreign products. Guess what? Foreigners aren't buying our goods either. They simply can't afford to as their currencies quickly depreciate against a strong US dollar.

FED RATE CUTS AND SPECULATIVE MANIAS

I have discussed this before, but did you realize that not only in the Great Depression, but also in the Recessions of 1945, 1953, 1970, 1973-1975, and 1990 the Fed cut interest rates in order to head off a Recession? It didn't work then - it won't work now. The Fed cut rates 8 times before the Great Depression, 7 times before the 1973-1975 Recession, and a record 11 times during what could very well turn out to be the New Great Depression. These wild crippling Recessions/Depressions have been preceded by speculative manias as well. In the 1920' there was the Radio and Auto mania investment craze, then in the 1960's it was the "tronics" craze (where any company with the suffix -tronics was a "guaranteed winner - similar to the dot.com craze), it the 1970's it was the "nifty fifty" - the fifty stocks that would always be with us and score huge gains (such as Polaroid). More recently it was the Tech, Telecom, and dot.com manias. Nothing really changes except the names and the dates.

ENERGY CRISES

Of course every postwar Recession has been preceded by an energy crisis. When the cost of energy rises, this cost goes straight to the corporate "bottom line". The most recent "Energy Crisis" precipitated the Recession that we are in today by wringing out the excesses of the Tech, Telecom, and dot.com speculative manias. In 1973 the Global Economy reeled under the Arab Oil Embargo as Middle Eastern OPEC members retaliated against western support of Israel. There were long lines at gas stations and rationing ensured. Of course the POG jumped higher. Later the overthrow of the Shah of Iran and hostage crisis as well as the Russian invasion of Afghanistan triggered another Oil Crisis, and most here know what happened to the POG as inflation soared, the effects of the energy crisis and the prospect of a spreading war in the Middle East became a concern.

Now OPEC is determined to maintain a higher trading range for oil. Russia will ultimately have to comply because their costs of production are much higher than the Middle Eastern OPEC members. If Russia floods the market, then the POO will drop crating a huge loss of revenue. It is oil that feeds the Russian economy and without it the fragile Russian is toast. OPEC has held the threat of overproduction over the Russians head and in effect could cripple the Russian economy while bring down the POO. I believe that all parties will compromise and maintain a higher price band as it is in their best interests.

Any economic recovery will mean increased demand for energy. Guess what? Exploration and production has fallen off. It takes time to gear up for production and there are not that many drill rigs anymore. Again, increased demand means higher energy prices and that means costs that go straight to the "bottom line". This time energy costs will constrain any economic recovery unless some government inspired and funded push for energy takes place. It has been mentioned that energy is a "security issue" and it is also a very important economic issue as well.

Clint H

(02/21/2002; 19:49:46 MDT - Msg ID: 70567)

Black Blade msg#: 70559)

US Dollar in Devaluation!

<>

Is this what ANOTHER meant when he said gold and the dollar would rise together?

Black Blade

(02/21/2002; 19:51:21 MDT - Msg ID: 70568)

THE NEW DEPRESSION - Part 2

US BANKING CRISIS

It is almost a daily event that we here of one corporate downgrade or debt downgrade. Recently we heard that Providian and Fleet Financial are experiencing severe losses on bad loans and credit card debt. In the year 2000 at First Union the bad debt load rose over 53%, B of A over 65%, Wachovia over 118%, and Bank One over 159%. Last year's numbers are expected to be much - much worse. This year has started off badly as well.

It gets much worse as corporate debt and bankruptcies leave many banks reeling under humongous losses. Remember how the Bank of America reeled under the prospect of billions of dollars in losses from the bankruptcy of California utility PG&E? It is the old saying - "owe the bank a little and you have a problem - owe the bank a lot and the bank has a problem". A good example is the LTV Corporation. JP Morgan Chase loaned this company over $600 Million. LTV Corporation filed for bankruptcy and then asked JPMC for another loan for $225 Million. Guess what? They got the loan. Virtually every US Bank has a similar tale to tell. And we haven't even discussed the banks DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE!

In 1998, Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) went tits up when they were caught on the wrong side of derivative positions when the Russians defaulted on bonds, Asian Contagion swept throughout the Far East, and currencies in Japan, Russia, and Europe cratered. LTCM went under and Alan Greenspan had to engineer a bailout due to the potential of a Global Economic Crisis. Not much has changed, as today it is the major banks that are in trouble.

Today, the US General Accounting Office (GAO) reveals that US banks have over $40.5 Trillion in derivative exposure! That's TRILLION WITH A MONSTROUS CAPITAL "T"! That is nearly $142,000 for every man, woman, and child in the US. There are over 400 commercial banks in the US with tremendous derivatives exposure. A few events similar to 1998 could hurl the Global Economy" into a Depression that would make the last Great Depression rather insignificant. It wouldn't take much. Even "all the kings horses and all the kings men (Alan Greenspan and his counterparts) could put Humpty Dumpty (the Global Economy) together again. It would be irreparable. The GAO calls this "Systemic Risk" - NO KIDDING! I call it Global Financial Meltdown.

JAPANESE MELTDOWN

Recently we have heard and seen the problems with the Japanese economy. The Yen is a pathetic scrap of paper and banks are insolvent. This is something I had discussed before it was fashionable. Now there are too many warts to be ignored. Japanese banks are in serious trouble as they have refused to clear the books of bad debts and nonperforming loans. It won't be long until the situation becomes untenable. That means all that cash to the tune of $450 billion invested in US equities, US real estate, and US bonds are going home. When that happens - the US economy will suffer.

Japanese banks are insolvent to well in excess of $1 Trillion of bad debt and even amid cries for the BOJ to bail out the banks, the government is really in no position to provide any meaningful help. There is the smell of fear in Japan. Housewives have been reported purchasing kilo bars of Gold to protect their savings. Why? Because these same banks know that they will have to abscond with the life savings of many Japanese eventually. Preparations are under way now. The first step is to shake loose of any obligation of insuring savings. First it is protection is reduced to about $75,000 in savings accounts. Next year more changes are mandated by cutting additional insurance in other types of savings in other accounts. I don't know all the details yet. That shoe will drop over the next several days. As the deadline approaches on April 1st, we shall see more frightened Japanese scurry about looking for safe harbor - stocks maybe? Nonperforming bonds? - no, even the Japanese banks won't invest in those. Maybe - just maybe Gold?

MARKET VALUATIONS

We hear a lot from these dim bulb economists these days that say, "it's different this time". It is only different in the size of the coming disaster. The stock market indices are grossly over valued and in fact many companies have no earnings. What earnings many have are the "Pro Forma" type earnings that are meaningless. What counts is NET EARNINGS. How much the company actually made - not some sugarcoated fantasy dreamed up by some pie-in-the-sky economist (who was probably trained at Arthur Andersen).

Based on the PE ratios of the market indices and comparing these earnings to the historical averages, we can make some rough conclusions. First the commonly cited PE ratio of the S&P 500 is about 26 to 29. That is a farce! The S&P PE ratio is calculated based on "operating earnings". Using the most recent net earnings the for the PE ratio of about 62 and applying that to the historical average (of 14) we see that the true value of the S&P index should be about 248! The NASDAQ even after falling from well over 5500 to a more recent 1716 should be valued roughly about 750, and the DOW (an index of only 30 issues and rather limited in scope) should be valued at about 5285. The numbers have deteriorated greatly not because of rising share prices, but because of falling earnings. Ouch! Even so, who knows what the true earnings are as accounting scandal after accounting scandal comes to light on a daily basis.

REAL ESTATE BUBBLE

Hell, I haven't even talked about the coming real estate bust when the bubble pops. Many investors have been looking for safe haven as the US Economy tanks. One perceived safe haven is Real Estate. A lot of people are in for a shock. What happens when people can't pay their mortgage? Repossession? Perhaps a new "Dust Bowl" scenario with US families hitting the road?

Corporate real estate is already hitting the skids. Silicon Valley and San Francisco were the sky-high rent districts (as well as Manhattan). Prices have been falling steadily over the last 6 months or so. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS) will also get hit as income slows. REITS payout funds from operations typically nearly 90% pass through to investors. There will be no safe haven investment here. As goes real estate - so goes construction. Of course here too the banks will take it on the chin. When the banks go under - what is left to take?

WHAT TO DO?

There isn't much anyone can do at this point except look out for number one. That is - get out of debt, get enough cash on hand for several months expenses, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, get a nonperishable food and basic goods storage program started. Prepare as you would for a long period of unemployment or a natural disaster where help isn't expected for a long time.

Is economic recovery "around the corner" as these dim bulb economists on CNBC say? I won't hold my breath as these idiots missed the start of the economy to begin with. I sure hope that they are right, however, the signs and the data suggests a lot of misery for a lot of people. In a word - "GRIM"

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(02/21/2002; 19:55:05 MDT - Msg ID: 70569)

RE: Clint H

I didn't think of that. However, the two strongest major currencies in the World right now are the US Dollar and Gold. Now Gold is strengthening against the US Dollar. It has to really bum out those who support the "strong dollar" policy. Cheers!

- Black Blade

USAGOLD

(02/21/2002; 20:20:57 MDT - Msg ID: 70570)

Gandalf, CB and ALL. . . .

I want to thank all who decided to participate in the Race for the Angel. This has to be the highest participation contest yet. I want to thank Gandalf, our wizardrous friend, for acting as moderator. Much of the credit for the high participation goes to you. Good luck to all tomorrow -- though the fundamentals and the technicals do not seem to support Invisible Hand's $8752.00 prognostication at the moment. But who knows what the Rising Sun might bring. . . . . .

CB. . .Congrats to Steff for a great victory. Bode gave it his best but Steph put two good runs together and gets the gold. I'm sure they'll do some skiing together on both sides of the Atlantic in the months to come. As I watched Steff battle the Utah snow and pull his victory out of it, I was thinking about your comment on the different types of snow you experienced in the Rockies and the Alps. I remembered after we got off the phone that somebody told me one time that the Plains Indians had something like 15 different words for the one phenomena we call "snow". Thought that might interest you . . . . . . .

Looks like gold is blasting through some gates of its own this evening. . . . . .

Black Blade

(02/21/2002; 20:42:34 MDT - Msg ID: 70571)

Boeing Announces 1,000 Jobs Cuts

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/020221/boeing_jobs_2.html
Snippit:

Boeing Announces 1,000 Jobs Cuts in LA Satellite Division

Black Blade: And so it goes - the "Bone Pile" grows.

(02/21/2002; 20:45:49 MDT - Msg ID: 70572)

Dollar/ Gold Index

Black Blade: Happy to see you using the reverse index of
the value of the USD in terms of ounces of gold. Another way of making a dollar/gold index is to price the USD in milligrams of gold. At a gold price of US$ 3ll.03 / ounce the dollar/gold index stands at exactly 100 ( 100 mg of gold )

For example, currently, spot gold appears to be around
$ 293.85/ oz in Sydney. So the Dollar/Gold Index would
be 31103/ 293.85 = 105.85 ( 105.85 mg of gold ).

It would be best to stop pricing everything in
terms of currency and just price it in terms of in milligrams of gold, starting of course with the USD.

Ax ( see a few graph points below from a previous
post)

ax (06/02/01; 19:08:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 55216)
THE RIGHT WAY TO PRESERVE THE US DOLLAR

shows the MILLIGRAM WEIGHT of GOLD which equals ONE USD at a given
price of gold.

PRICE OF GOLD NEW DOLLAR INDEX (WEIGHT OF GOLD IN MG)
to equal ONE USD)

$ 207.35 150

$ 266.70 (6-01-00 ny close) 116.62

$ 300.00 102.68

$ 311.03 100

$ 414.71 75

$ 622.06 50

$1,244.12 25

For any gold price the equivalent value of one USD in milligrams of gold
can be interpolated from the above table or using the following formula:

NEW DOLLAR INDEX = 31103/ PRICE OF GOLD IN USD

AX

Black Blade

(02/21/2002; 22:27:28 MDT - Msg ID: 70573)

Gas storage withdrawals 'much higher' than 5-year average

http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=TOPST&ARTICLE_ID=136462Gas storage withdrawals 'much higher' than 5-year average

By the OGJ Online Staff

HOUSTON, Feb. 21 -- Cold weather in much of the US in early February has ended a series of weeks of relatively small gas withdrawals from storage, said C.H. Guernsey & Co., Oklahoma City. According to the firm's models, cold weather during the first full week of February produced withdrawals that were "much higher" than the 5-year average.
"The Guernsey models estimated a net withdrawal of gas in storage of 133-145 bcf [for the week of Feb. 4], with 89 bcf coming from Eastern storage alone. The net withdrawal estimated by the American Gas Association was 95 bcf for the same period last year," Guernsey said.

The Guernsey models -- which estimate gas use and price movements pegged to the weather in 15 cities -- showed temperatures 56% lower than the previous week in significant northern cities, said Donald Murry, Guernsey vice-president. However, despite the recent strong drawdown, gas in storage remains close to 45% above the 5-year average, Murry added. "The high gas-in-storage levels are still the major market influence, holding down current and even forward prices for summer gas," he said.

Black Blade: Withdrawals have been running higher than average. If the economy recovers or cold weather continues then storage will draw down significantly. If this summer is warmer than usual we could see increased demand as electricity use soars. The end result is higher energy costs as exploration and development activity is nearly stopped and this coincides with rapid decline rates for NG fields.

Black Blade

(02/21/2002; 22:36:15 MDT - Msg ID: 70574)

Industrial sector holds key to boosting natural gas demand

http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=TOPST&ARTICLE_ID=136461
By the OGJ Online Staff

HOUSTON, Feb. 21 -- The industrial sector may hold the key to the floodgates on natural gas demand in the US, which has ample gas supplies, according to Energy Security Analysis Inc.

Industrial demand will likely revive in the second quarter after falling off during mid-2000 when the economy began to weaken, Wakefield, Mass.-based ESAI said. ESAI added it "expects that chemical and fertilizer producers, for whom natural gas is a raw material accounting for 75-90% of the cost of production, may intensify a trend begun last October and November of unshuttering production facilities to take advantage of low natural gas prices."

ESAI Senior Analyst Mary Menino said, "With current gas prices hovering around $2/MMbtu, US gas supplies should be competitive with foreign gas sources supplying overseas chemical and fertilizer capacity.

"This should induce owners of US capacity to reopen their plants," she said. "If the economy revives by spring, we would expect general industrial gas demand to begin to expand."

Black Blade: As I said, increased demand will lead to higher prices that go straight to the corporate (and consumer) bottom line. It is a "catch-22". The "Energy Crisis" continues to lurk beneath the radar.

(02/21/2002; 22:50:37 MDT - Msg ID: 70575)

WALL STREET JOURNAL FRONT PAGE FRIDAY :J.P MORGAN,ENRON

Simon Hobbs on CNBC Europe reported a short time ago that
tomorrow morning's Wall Street Journal will feature a story
on its front page regarding: J.P Morgan, Enron and an
off shore banking facility.

Black Blade

(02/21/2002; 22:53:59 MDT - Msg ID: 70576)

Natural Gas-Related Energy Tax Proposals Would Help Prepare for Future Economic Growth, Environmental Benefits

http://www.aga.org/Newsroom/NewsReleases/4507.html
Snippit:

Published: 2/14/2002

Washington, D.C. - The U.S. Senate is poised to begin debating a national energy policy bill that has been made even more comprehensive through the addition of energy tax incentives approved yesterday by the Senate Finance Committee, according to the American Gas Association (AGA).

"The Senate Finance Committee has taken a long-term view of energy policy and has recognized that the increased use of natural gas will benefit our country's economy, national security and environmental quality," said David N. Parker, AGA president and CEO.

For example, Parker said, the committee took steps to help local natural gas utilities expand their systems to prepare for future increases in natural gas use by allowing them to accelerate the depreciation schedule for new distribution pipelines.

"Natural gas use is expected to increase by 50 percent during the next 20 years because it is a clean, highly efficient fuel found in abundance here in North America. But the pipes used by local utility companies to deliver natural gas must be expanded. Accelerated depreciation will make it easier for gas utilities to get the capital they will need to add roughly 255,000 miles of pipe during the next two decades," he said.

Allowing gas utilities to reduce the tax depreciation schedule for investments will not change the companies' total cash flows or reduce the total amount of taxes they pay, he noted.

Other energy tax incentives of interest to natural gas utilities that will be included in the Bingaman-Daschle energy bill (S. 1766) would:

Promote increased supplies of natural gas, which will help keep customers' bills down. For example, a new credit of .50 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) of natural gas is designed to encourage producers to get more natural gas from marginal well; it would apply only if the production price of natural gas remains below $2.00 per Mcf.

Encourage customers to use energy more efficiently, such as generating their own reliable supply of electricity, using natural gas fuel cells or combined heat and power systems.

Improve air quality in urban and suburban areas through tax credits designed to boost the use of vehicles fueled with natural gas and other clean fuels. (Credits would be available for all sizes of vehicles.

Natural gas as a vehicle fuel helps reduce reliance on foreign oil: one natural gas transit bus displaces about 10,000 gallons of diesel fuel each year.)

The American Gas Association represents 187 local energy utility companies that deliver natural gas to more than 52 million customers throughout the United States. Natural gas meets one-fourth of the United States' energy needs and is the nation's fastest growing major energy source.

Black Blade: This would perhaps help to prevent some problems by encouraging more energy independence and encourage more production in face of low prices and hopefully head off the worse case scenario should an "energy Crisis" resurface. Still it is too little - too late.

Carl H

(02/21/2002; 23:10:39 MDT - Msg ID: 70577)

Black Blade: Questions

Black Blade,

I have been studying the natural gas statistics from the DOE web site.

I am looking at the well drilling data and the reserve data. They break down the wells drilled by Exploratory and Development. The discoveries added to reserves are broken down by Extensions, New Field Discoveries, and New Reservoir Discoveries in Old Fields. Which types of drilling would you expect to add reserves to which categories?

Thanks!

Black Blade

(02/21/2002; 23:22:45 MDT - Msg ID: 70579)

Continued Swings in Natural Gas Market

http://www.NGSA.org/docs/pressrelease/2002/CERA2_13_02.pdf
Snippit (pdf file):

R. Skip Horvath, President of the Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA) says among other things:

"The reason for the volatility is simple: we are a commodity market and volatility is inherent in competitive commodities. But the long-term reason for the swings is more fundamental: supply. The fields are old, yielding less and less natural gas. Today we have to produce six trillion cubic feet per year of new natural gas supply just to stay even, much less the amount required to meet growing demand. We can produce the natural gas required to meet market demands, but we must have changes in government policy to plan for the future."

"Our industry cannot move on a dime. Producing natural gas takes time, even years when we are not using existing wells. In order to meet future demand, we must have improved government permitting in gas-prone government lands to ensure the most economic supply; and two, we must be allowed to explore for new fields of natural gas in areas where we currently are restricted. It may sound simple., but these two issues are our industry's biggest challenges."

Black Blade: Even with the furious pace of drilling last year the supply increased by a measley 2%. What has saved us from another energy crisis was warm weather and an economic recession. Thankfully we have an economic recession, because otherwise a repeat of last summer's "Energy Crisis" would have been inevitable.

Black Blade

(02/21/2002; 23:40:42 MDT - Msg ID: 70580)

RE: Carl H - Natural Gas

I am not too sure of the question. However, I will say that as far as new fields - there are few if any new fields being discovered and fewer still that are being exploited. Much of the problem of course is the lack of pipelines and pipeline capacity. It requires an ungodly amount of paperwork (permitting, environmental impact studies, etc.). Take the proposed Alaska NG pipeline for example.

Most if any new NG supply is from the drilling in extensions of existing fields as the infrastructure is already in place. New fields require a lot of start up capital and in the current price environment I wouldn't expect to see a lot of NG companies rushing out to explore and develop new properties. As far as new discoveries in old fields there are two types of situations here. 1) the retrieval of NG from old oil and gas fields that was passed over; and 2) exploratory drilling in old fields (usually in deeper zones and therefore more costly). There are a few niche players that have been successful in purchasing old fields or the rights in order to tackle production in old existing fields. In the current price environment I would be willing to bet that any new supply will come from extensions in existing producing fields.

Some of the previous posts discuss the difficulties in NG production and supply. Hope this helps. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Mr Gresham

(02/21/2002; 23:51:16 MDT - Msg ID: 70581)

Frontiers of accounting: Japan

http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/story.html?f=/stories/20020221/120496.htmlI'm repeating the link Black Blade gave this morning. The article is worth absorbing as it gives a likely sequence in Japan starting with credit agency downgrades locking up its banks' international dealings, before depositors even start lining up outside.

It also gives the upside in Japan's strengths as an international creditor, toward the end of the article, and that keeps you thinking about how this particular ball might carom around the billiard table.

IMO, it's a set-up for a classical fractional reserve crisis. The $10 trillion equivalent in private savings takes a look at the (??check my figure please??) $30 trillion in total debt, sees its servicing deteriorate, and starts feeling like the unwilling player of Musical Chairs at a party. The first $10 trillion in debt that gets canceled out (if not all of it) will be offset with their $10 trillion of savings wiped out.

In other words, their savings may have been real enough the day it left their hands, or paychecks. But from the time it entered "The 'Saving for Retirement' System", it ceased to exist in any positive sense. Others grabbed it, spent it, or loaned it out through enough unreclaimable channels that someone else now possesses its positive value, never to be returned. Any of this sound familiar in these parts?

You just have to grab onto something rock-solid and hold onto it until people figure out who owns and owes what, and where positive value lies once more. Only then may small savers wisely venture out of their tortoise shells.

(I'm sorry if this contravenes all the financial "wisdom" and cleverness we've had shoveled into our heads these past decades, or sounds too lunk-headed simple, but sometimes -- That's Just The Way It Really Is!) Good night, and sleep well.

Black Blade

(02/22/2002; 00:04:06 MDT - Msg ID: 70582)

Buy and Hold is Dead! Long Live Buy and Hold! Long Live Gold!

http://www.depression2.tv/chronicles/chronicles-gold.html

Snippit:

Every dog has its day, and gold's day is coming. Gold has been an undisputed dog, in one of the longest bear markets on record for any investment - 21 years and counting. Many would have you believe that gold as an investment is dead, that in the new world of investing, paper assets are king. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Gold is a special kind of investment for a special kind of time. It does not bear interest, nor pay a divided. It is simply a hedge, -- specifically a hedge against falling currencies and paper assets in general. Gold has recently generated excitement by poking its head briefly above the psychologically significant $300 level for the first time in two years. The time is ripe for looking at a long term investment strategy embracing gold.

Black Blade: Interesting article, though I dispute the "21-year Bear Market" myth. Aside from a brief blip where Gold rocketed to about $850/oz. on a triple whammy of high inflation, Oil concerns (Iranian Revolution), and war (Russian invasion of Afghanistan), the real Bear Market has only been since 1996 shortly after the Bre-X scandal and the Gold-Carry trade issue. In 1980, Gold performed exactly as it should have during such major crises.

Golden Dreams All!

Gimme Shelter

(02/22/2002; 00:08:46 MDT - Msg ID: 70583)

Us around the world

Hello everyone. Gimme Shelter here.
I am new on the posting side of these discussions but not on the reading.
It is truly a coincidence that with the inception of the computer and software mania, we peons can now investigate, monitor, discuss, mass communicate, research, you get the picture. The computer tool is almost as good as a new Colt AR-15 H-B decked to the max military style. We have a tool to defend ourselves against the would be Hitlers, Stalins or the likes. Will our children classify the Bushes with these fellows one day?
This will get ugly, so if you have not had your pepto...
As we all ponder this time in history, its ramification to each other and our families, we must not just sit and type/talk. Action is necessary, especially when a well organized agenda can see us through the chaos that could ensue the cataclysmic crises our greedy banker, politician friends have gotten us into. Hedging ones wealth is a great start.(Thank you USA Gold for leading the way)
A thought I would like to ponder with you is this.
For over 100 years now the US federal government has been able to plot and scheme their way out of any liability to us citizens. We had no way to monitor them, compared to today.(Have you all read the Constitution lately, or the Bill of Rights, now masquerading as a group of privileges)?
Prior to the fiscal awareness we now perceive, the powers to be have been planning all along to secure their own future at our costs. The only difference is we are watching them do it this time around, from the almost inside.
Why has the Federal government stolen our rights and liberties? Why have they become worldly police when their written job was to provide for a common defense? (Which they fail miserably at all the time)
Then in comes the flag wavers without a clue, watching the trooper thugs beat up pot smokers on primetime TV every night. The US has a small populace of this world yet we have 25% of the world's prisoners. Murderers get 6.2 yrs average time a pot smoker gets 10.
80% of the prisoners are in jail for crimes against the state.
Another conflict of the Constitution.
The economists that these sheeple are watching are telling fat lies, as I have read in these very pages.
The stock market graph from 1925-1935 verses today's is almost identical with the same lies swirling around it today as they were in 1929, 1930, 1931. (See fall newsletter from USA Gold) FDR made gold illegal to own in 1933. I wonder when they will pull that one out again. Probably for National Security.
So what gives?
Oh I almost forgot, Homeland (Nazi) Security. A cabinet not controlled by the congress, (so citizens can't control it), answers now to a four star general of the military. By the way the "troops" that police your local streets answer to Homeland Security now. So the US Federal government has inserted military control over the citizenry of this country on our sovereign land. Another direct conflict of the Constitution.
What am I getting at?
Well, if you knew you were caught in the cookie jar, but you had some time to plan a distraction to escape, then move back in to rule the cookie jar, what would you do?
The US Military is poised to calm the chaos that the world and the US will have if/when this crises happens. What better way to finish off a complex republic than with a global financial crises, followed up by military intervention, then full tyranny.
All paid for out of thin air, fiat currency, ignorance and inactivity of the American citizenry, (taught by the federal government).
So why we all want to see these Bas$%^@* go down, make no mistake they have stolen the money from us all, and are poised to unleash our forefathers worst nightmare. Remember through all you have written and read, from financial woes, lying, coercion, distrust, inflation, devaluation and everything else that we are realizing, Thomas Jefferson never wanted a central bank for this very reason. (Or a standing army, or any of the other threats to our LIBERTYS they so wisely laid out)
So I say, as we reap this potentially catastrophic blow, plan for your LIBERTY because that is what is really at stake here. The money was just the same tool they have used over and over to redistribute the wealth. It is just this time they are going for it all worldwide to be a One World Order.
Today I truly believe the 2nd Amendment may be the saving grace that our forefathers knew we would need.
Thank you Thomas, Ben, Samuel, John, George, and Thomas P. Curse you Hamilton and Madison. May your names be wiped from our minds, as we owe this Federal government and banking debacle to you.
So while you are stocking up on that fine yellow metal, make sure you pick up some stainless and brass, packed with some grains of fine LIBERTY loving powder to defend our nation from the crooks looking to enhance our economic slavery, possibly through a economic crises, with military intervention.

In Economic Liberty,

Gimme Shelter

Disclaimer- This article or message was once protected by the First Amendments "Freedom of Speech".
Since the Constitution is no longer valid, I am forced to try and satisfy the US so called (PATRIOT Act) with the following.
This article or message is not intended to coerce or influence anyone inside of or outside of any government.

Waverider

(02/22/2002; 01:23:57 MDT - Msg ID: 70584)

Japan suspected of stock market intervention

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3LS35UYXC&live=true&useoverridetemplate=ZZZ99ZVV70C&tagid=ZZZC19QUA0C⊂heading=asia%20pacificSnippit:
"The Japanese government was suspected on Thursday of intervening in the market to prop up prices because of fears that falling shares could lead to bank insolvencies.

The Nikkei 225 posted its biggest percentage gain in 11 months, rising by 4.69 per cent to 10,295.42, with some traders attributing the rise to buying by trust banks that manage public pension funds and post office savings."

"All the issues that are rising - Tokyo Electron, Advantest, TDK - are the ones that impact the Nikkei 225 the most. National pension funds and postal savings are moving in to lift select issues," said Koji Fujiwara, trader at BNP Paribas.

"The timing appears perfect for such an operation. Short-selling has diminished and liquidity is low in the market following [George W.] Bush's visit, making it easier to push shares higher."

Waverider

(02/22/2002; 01:55:23 MDT - Msg ID: 70585)

Tokyo stocks end up for second day on policy hopes

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020222/t138133_1.htmlSnippit:
"Tokyo stocks clawed into positive territory in late trading and closed higher on Friday as rises by a handful of key stocks such as Matsushita Electric Industrial Co Ltd helped push up a thin market.

The benchmark Nikkei average rose 0.60 percent, adding to its biggest rally in 11 months the previous day as investors looked ahead to anti-deflation policy steps that are expected to help Japan's flagging economy.

[Really...so...what's the good news?]

*Japan's largest dairy products maker, Snow Brand Milk Products Co Ltd , dived 13.19 percent to 125 yen after its scandal-tainted meat-packing subsidiary, Snow Brand Food Co Ltd , said it would liquidate operations by April. The Tokyo Stock Exchange suspended trading in Snow Brand Food for the whole day and said the shares will be delisted on May 23.

*Kyodo news agency reported that ferro-alloy maker Japan Metals & Chemicals Co Ltd would likely seek court protection from creditors with more than 100 billion yen ($745 million) in debt. Following the report, the Tokyo bourse suspended trading in shares of Japan Metals, which is 8.1 percent owned by Nippon Steel Corp , the nation's biggest steel maker.

*Matsushita Electric Industrial, the most actively traded issue by value, was up 3.95 percent at 1,578 yen as investors chose to focus on a possible recovery next year rather than a huge loss forecast for this business year.

[See the next post for the "possible recovery" that pushed Matsusuita shares up 4.0%]

Old Yeller

(02/22/2002; 01:55:24 MDT - Msg ID: 70586)

Excellent article on gold by Tim Wood

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256B65006EDA47
So much to read these days'so little time.

Waverider

(02/22/2002; 02:04:45 MDT - Msg ID: 70587)

Matsushita suffers massive loss

http://news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,3823950%255E15322,00.htmlSnippit:
"JAPAN'S Matsushita Electric Industrial said it lost $US1.3 billion ($2.52 billion) in the three months to December, and downgraded its full-year forecast due to slack technology demand.

The firm now forecast its net loss for the full year to March would explode 65 percent to 438 billion yen form an earlier estimate of 265 billion yen."

Waverider: Good Night All, and thank you for your thoughts and opinions which are so invaluable. Cheers!

TownCrier

(02/22/2002; 02:12:55 MDT - Msg ID: 70588)

"irrational exuberance" . . . Has it been five years ALREADY??

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020221/n21265289_1.htmlThese excerpts make for a fun 'Show-and-Tell':

----------Minutes from the 1996 meetings of the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee, made public on Thursday, show that then-Fed Governor Lindsey (now President George W. Bush's top economic adviser) was warning by late summer about ``excessive optimism'' in U.S. financial markets.

In September, Lindsey said ``a gambler's curse'' hung over the markets that led investors to apparently believe earnings growth of 11-1/2 percent a year would continue into the indefinite future.

``Readers of this transcript five years from now can check this fearless prediction: profits will fall short of this expectation,'' Lindsey declared to his FOMC colleagues as they mulled the economy's state in one of their eight-times-a-year meetings.

(The full transcripts of FOMC meetings are released with a five-year delay, although heavily edited minutes are released with about a six-week interval after each meeting.)

Months later in a now-famous Dec. 5, 1996, address [for which he was roundly criticized by Wall Street] to the American Enterprise Institute, Greenspan sent stock prices tumbling when he cautioned that ``irrational exuberance'' might lie behind the stock market's strong performance:

``How do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected contractions as they have in Japan over past decades,'' Greenspan asked. ``And how do we factor that assessment into monetary policy?''----------------

It is worthwhile to point out that the economic climate of those days that had the top economists so worried was none too dire compared with the economic calamities of the recent year. And to think, they were worried while the DOW was then only 6,000, while today it stands at 10,000!

Returning to the commentary where Mr. Lindsey was worried about the costly after-effects of a burst bubble, he said:

----------"As in the United States in the late 1920s and Japan in the late 1980s, the case for a central bank ultimately to burst that bubble becomes overwhelming."

Greenspan accepted Lindsey's analysis. ``I recognize that there is a stock market bubble problem at this point, and I agree with Governor Lindsey that this is a problem that we should keep an eye on,'' Greenspan said, but he expressed worry about how the bubble might be pricked.-------------

Again, compare and contrast the situations then and now, and try to imagine the modern concerns (real fears???) of our current monetary officials.

After all this talk about pricking bubbles and also about trying to mitigate damage to the economy, I'll leave it to each reader to form his or her own conclusions about the relevance to today's investment climate.

(Investor beware!)

R.

TownCrier

(02/22/2002; 02:24:46 MDT - Msg ID: 70589)

Who's going to claim the French Angel 20 franc gold coin?

http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/FrenchAng.htmlHere it is. (And if you're not the lucky winner later today, well hell...you can buy all you want!)

The Invisible Hand

(02/22/2002; 03:09:54 MDT - Msg ID: 70590)

Price guessing contest

You see, I'll win $ 8,752

ax (02/21/02; 22:50:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 70575)
WALL STREET JOURNAL FRONT PAGE FRIDAY :J.P MORGAN,ENRON
Simon Hobbs on CNBC Europe reported a short time ago that
tomorrow morning's Wall Street Journal will feature a story
on its front page regarding: J.P Morgan, Enron and an
off shore banking facility.

The Invisible Hand

(02/22/2002; 04:07:42 MDT - Msg ID: 70591)

reference to WSJ JP Morgan article

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20020222/bs_nm/financial_jpmorgan_report_dc_1WSJ: Fed Examines J.P.Morgan Enron Deals
Fri Feb 22, 2:38 AM ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve (news - web sites) Bank of New York is examining J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Inc.'s accounting for commodity-related trades with Enron Corp. , the Wall Street Journal said in a report on Friday, citing internal central-bank documents.

The Journal said the trades being reviewed apparently related to an offshore entity set up by the old Chase Manhattan Bank a decade ago through which it came to do substantial business with Enron.

The large volume of trades between the offshore operation, called Mahonia Ltd., and Enron surfaced weeks ago in litigation connected to Enron's bankruptcy filing, raising questions as to whether Mahonia was a vehicle for loans disguised as trades, the Journal said.

The documents did not indicate that J.P. Morgan was the subject of a formal investigation, the Journal said.

No one was immediately available at J.P. Morgan to comment.

A company spokesman told the Journal, "It is perfectly normal for the Fed, in the course of its ongoing and continuing review of the banks it supervises, to seek information on high-visibility issues or transactions. In all our dealings with the Fed, we cooperate fully

nickel62

(02/22/2002; 05:07:36 MDT - Msg ID: 70592)

A must read for anyone who doesn't understand what Enron was doing, how derivatives can be used to inflate profits, or why the gold market is undoubtably rigged by a consortium of these same McKinsey/Harvard Business School/Wall Street crooks

Enron - in depth

Enron: virtual company, virtual profits
By Andrew Hill, Joshua Chaffin and Stephen Fidler
Published: February 3 2002 20:06GMT | Last Updated: February 13 2002 15:36GMT

As congress prepares for an intense round of questioning of Enron directors and officials, there is a growing suspicion that at the heart of the once-mighty energy trader was a financial hole.

Evidence is accumulating that the Houston-based group, which boasted of being asset-light, may also have been light on profitability at core operations.

A combination of aggressive accounting, off-balance-sheet deals and brow-beating of employees and advisers, allowed Enron management to create a virtual company with virtual profits.

A Financial Times examination of company documents, interviews with former employees and analysis by accounting and legal experts show that Enron inflated revenues, for example by treating the turnover of trading through its online subsidiary as revenue.

Enron bolstered profits by booking income immediately on contracts that would take up to 10 years to complete. It shifted debts into partnerships it created and in effect controlled, even though defined by auditors as off balance sheet. It used such entities to manipulate its accounts at the end of each quarter and employed financial derivatives and other complex transactions aggressively to the same end. It masked poorly performing assets with rapid deal-making.

The group also employed an aggressive tax avoidance strategy. According to Citizens for Tax Justice, a Washington advocacy group, Enron's pre-tax profits between 1996 and 2000 totalled $1.79bn and it received net US federal tax rebates of $381m. In only one year did Enron pay federal tax at all - $17m in 1997.

The report issued by the special investigation committee appointed by the Enron board highlights some of these strategies, many of which are used by other large companies.

Enron, however, used them more aggressively and comprehensively than most to create the image of a dynamic corporation with lower debt, higher revenues and bigger profits than justified by its businesses.

To do this, Enron's senior management and sales team placed enormous pressure on middle managers and on the outside auditor, Andersen.

When Enron's risk managers questioned generous profit forecasts, senior managers insisted they would be borne out over time.

Enron's off-balance-sheet vehicles played a central role in efforts to flatter results. Those who have examined Enron's accounts and partnership documents say it struck deals with the partnerships in the final weeks of each quarter, reversing them early the next quarter after Enron had filed accounts.

The company's presentation on October 26, 2000, to partners in LJM2 CoInvestment, one of the central partnerships, listed 24 investments since formation in December 1999. Half came in the final month of a quarter and nine in the last week of the accounting period.

Evidence is accumulating that Enron, which boasted of being asset-light, may also have been light on profits
The investigation said the rapid reversal of many of these deals and the fact that LJM partnerships "made a profit on every transaction . . . call into question the legitimacy of the sales".

Such transactions, many with other Enron-related entities, may have helped the group in two ways, according to accountancy experts. They helped to reduce debt temporarily, but also created price benchmarks - the so-called "estimated fair value" used in its accounts - so the company could assign generous values to assets ranging from power plants to derivatives.

Frank Partnoy, a professor at the University of San Diego School of Law who has studied Enron's derivatives transactions, told a committee last month: "Enron entered into derivatives transactions with these entities to shield volatile assets from quarterly financial reporting and to inflate artificially the value of certain Enron assets."

Derivatives, he added, were also used to "hide speculator losses it suffered on technology stocks, hide huge debts incurred to finance unprofitable new businesses, including retail energy services for new customers, [and] inflate the value of other troubled businesses, including its new ventures in fibre-optic bandwidth".

For some assets, such as shares trading in transparent markets, there is little or no leeway in defining the "fair value" of the holding. The asset is "marked to market" at the quoted price and a loss or gain is included in net income.

"Mark-to-market items are usually things you can determine the value of by picking up today's FT," says Robert Verrecchia, accounting professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. "The problem with all the mark-to-marketing is that at the end of the day you have to have some valuation in place."

In the case of assets, such as long-term energy contracts, in which there was no transparent trading, Enron had to estimate fair value.

"There was no independent market check [on values of long-term energy contracts], beyond about 24 months," says Jim Chanos, president of Kynikos Associates, a short-selling hedge fund that profited from the decline in Enron's shares. "There was no publicly traded market."

As Enron pointed out in the footnotes to its annual report for 2000: "Judgment is necessarily required in interpreting market data and the use of different market assumptions or estimation methodologies may affect the estimated fair value amounts."

Enron boasted about its role in creating some of these markets and even claimed to have pioneered the accounting treatment of such assets.

Bold use of mark-to-market accounting by Enron Energy Services (EES), a unit that signed long-term energy supply deals with outside companies, was one of the worrying signals identified by Sherron Watkins, the senior Enron official who warned Kenneth Lay, then chairman and chief executive, about apparent irregularities in an August 2001 letter.

A contract between EES and Quaker Oats, signed last February, reveals how a few aggressive - but not necessarily illegal - accounting sleights of hand allowed the company to book tens of millions of dollars in up-front profits on a deal that might otherwise have yielded none.

Under one of its so-called "bundled contracts", EES agreed to supply 15 Quaker plants with their energy needs, from natural gas and electricity to workers who would maintain boilers and pipes and procure spare parts. Enron guaranteed Quaker it could save $4.4m from its 1999 energy bill.

For its own part, Enron forecast a $36.8m profit over the 10-year deal and used mark-to-market accounting to book $23.4m of that before it had ever turned on Quaker's lights.

Under accounting rules, such treatment is permitted for commodities, such as natural gas and electricity. But the rules are more restrictive when it comes to services - such as boiler maintenance and parts procurement, for which no forward markets exist. Profits from these activities are supposed to be booked on a more conservative "accrual" basis, whereby a fraction of the profit is realised each year as it comes in.

Enron's problem was that almost all the profits projected for the Quaker deal were derived from services, not commodities. How did it manage to book them up-front?

The company used a questionable method called "revenue allocation". The net effect of this highly complex treatment was to redefine as commodities some of the money Quaker was paying for services and therefore create more profits that Enron could book up front.

Under the system, Enron's internal accountants created a new category called "allocated revenues". These were based not on what Quaker had historically paid for energy commodities and its service contracts, but on figures that Enron claimed reflected the open market value of the commodities and services.

This revaluation made a significant difference to the reported worth of the contract. Enron would have earned only a small margin supplying gas and power to Quaker based on the original revenue figures it used to calculate the deal. These activities could have actually been loss-making with Quaker's annual discount. Instead, revenue allocation allowed the company to claim an immediate hefty profit on the deal. Asked if such a move is illegal, the former Enron accountant says: "It's certainly skirting the edge. It's very, very aggressive."

Enron created the image of a dynamic company with bigger profits than its performance justified
Altogether, former Enron employees claim the company managed to mark-to- market $85m in services profits from a dozen deals, including Quaker, that should have been accrued. In some cases, those profits came from such services as changing light bulbs and air conditioning filters.

Former EES employees say that recognising these profits up-front was crucial because the assumptions that underlay them would often not have panned out over the life of the deal.

For example, they say EES would routinely under-estimate commodities prices in the latter years of a contract to lower Enron's cost. This was difficult for auditors to contest because no one could say with certainty what the price of natural gas would be years into the future.

Also, some of the prices Enron quoted, such as electricity distribution, were in highly-illiquid markets that were Enron-dominated. It could virtually name whatever price it pleased.

Much larger - and also dubious - projected savings may have come from the service estimates for the Quaker deal. Enron predicted it could operate and manage the 15 plants for less than half the cost Quaker had been paying. This estimate accounted for almost all the profit on the deal.

Former employees say it was easy for Enron to inflate services margins, because no one could accurately predict them. Perhaps Enron's boldest assumptions had to do with something called "efficiency projects".

As part of the Quaker deal, Enron was permitted to spend its own money to upgrade equipment such as boilers and lighting if it believed the investment would improve its margins over the life of the deal.

In total, EES identified efficiency projects at Quaker that it forecast would save $25.3m over the life of the deal at a cost of $14m.

These projections were highly speculative, former employees say. They took into account hard-to-predict variables, including future energy prices, construction costs and the client's future energy use. In spite of this uncertainty, before the projects had proved their savings Enron booked $11.3m in profits based on efficiency projects at Quaker.

Enron realised $250m in profits from these projects during the last three years, according to a former employee, even though many of the projects were never fully implemented.

How accurate were Enron Energy Service's projections at Quaker? We will never know - Enron collapsed just months into the deal. Quaker says it has since made "other arrangements".

According to Charles Mulford, accounting professor at the Georgia Institute of Technology and co-author of The Financial Numbers Game, due to be published this month, one indication that Enron's core business was suffering was the decline in the ratio of its operating cash flow to income.

Such a decline normally occurs when a company reports earnings that are not backed by cash flow. In Enron's case, according to Prof Mulford, it declined in 1997, 1998 and 1999. Although it improved in 2000, bolstered in part by a sharp increase in "accounts payable" by Enron, the ratio worsened markedly in the first two quarters of last year, the last filings before Enron restated its accounts.

One last piece in the puzzle was to complete flurries of deals, which helped blur the poor performance of existing assets.

One former executive in the London office of Enron's Azurix subsidiary says she sensed pressure to do deals to make the financial numbers look better. "The feeling [in London] was that the deals were being done just to make deals," says Clare Spottiswoode, a former senior vice-president of regulatory affairs in Europe.

Ms Spottiswoode says she had assumed Azurix, an ill-fated venture created to own water assets around the world, was an exception: a poorly run subsidiary, in an industry not understood in Houston, within a company that excelled. In retrospect, she feels it was typical of Enron's culture.

As the board-appointed committee concludes, the partnership structure was doomed by "a flawed idea, self-enrichment by employees, inadequately designed controls, poor implementation, inattentive oversight, simple (and not-so-simple) accounting mistakes, and overreaching in a culture that appears to have encouraged pushing the limits".

The FT's broader investigation suggests such flaws extended throughout the company.

Gold Standard

(02/22/2002; 05:45:28 MDT - Msg ID: 70593)

kludge - your #70561 @ 5:18 p.m.

Sir Kludge, your post yesterday is in a similar vein to something I posted a few weeks ago, which was essentially:-

"I fervently hope that the POG goes to $2,000 oz. I
even more fervently hope that when the POG goes to
$2,000 an oz,that an ounce of gold will purchase more
than a cup of coffee."

or something similar.....

No-one came out of the woodwork to try to tell me that my $2,000 ounce of gold WOULD in fact buy more than the cup of coffee.

That's a worry......

Cheers.

uponroof

(02/22/2002; 05:47:21 MDT - Msg ID: 70594)

European Banks now looking into that hot new rage: Derivatives-credit default swaps and Special Purpose Vehicles (SPV's)...

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020222/l21430254_2.htmlWho's going to be the JPMC (exposed and leveraged to default-out the yazoo) of the old world? Stay tuned...
***********************

Friday February 22, 6:38 am Eastern Time
ANALYSIS-Will sun shine on European banks' true risk?
By Thomas Atkins, European Banking Correspondent

FRANKFURT, Feb 22 (Reuters) - European banks will come under increasing pressure to come clean on off-balance sheet risks, as some big banks start to shed light on their use of powerful but controversial derivatives designed to cut risk.

UBS AG , Switzerland's largest bank, told Reuters this week it planned to unveil details about its use of complex derivative instruments to deflect risk from its loan book. Its aim -- to increase transparency and win investor confidence.

The move would put UBS a step ahead of many European rivals, who have kept investors in the dark about exposure to such tools as credit default swaps, which can either insure against sudden losses or lead to sudden losses themselves.

``This is something that regulators will be increasingly keen to see,'' said analyst Derek Chambers at investment bank HSBC Securities. ``Accounting standards for banks' results are growing further and further distanced from reality.''

UBS Chief Credit Officer Marco Suter told Reuters the bank was able to deflect rising bad debts by doubling its use of credit derivatives -- and planned to give details of their use later this year.

Up until now, few European banks have reported details of the extent of their exposure to fast-growing derivatives markets -- which are being stress-tested by a malign mixture of recession, a spate of U.S. corporate downgrades and bankruptcies.

The derivatives, primarily credit default swaps, are popular because they help banks transfer risks from their lending operations in bad times and could transform them into profit centres in good times.

European regulators are keeping a close eye on banks' use of the tools, as critics say they could on the one side disperse risks throughout the financial system, but on the other hand could blow up in the face of unwary investors.

GROWING COMPLEXITY

``Given the very sorry state of their risk management tools and practices to date, it should be something that banks and regulators (are) somewhat scared of,'' said Liesl Leach, risk management consultant at financial consultancy Radley & Associates.

``The best banks in the world don't really understand the risk involved with those sorts of products,'' Leach said.

In a sign of growing concern, a study on risks to banks released this month by the London-based Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation ranked ``complex financial instruments'' as the fourth biggest threat, up from 10 in 2001.

In the poll of 175 banks, CSFI said fears soared after the sudden Enron bankruptcy, burdening banks -- notably JP Morgan Chase (NYSE:JPM - news) -- with unexpectedly high obligations.

``Respondents feared the opaqueness and complexity of derivatives and the fact that they had the power to connect seemingly unrelated institutions,'' the report said.

Few banks have ever published details on their credit derivatives positions, leaving investors to guess about just how exposed they are to a market that is doubling in size each year and rapidly becoming a core operating area for banks eager to modernise management of their loan portfolios.

Neither of the two European blue chip banks which reported earnings on Thursday, UK mortgage bank Abbey National (quote from Yahoo! UK & Ireland: ANL.L) and France's No. 2 Societe Generale , revealed precise details how much the banks had used credit derivatives in 2001.

RISK TRANSFER

Abbey said it would reveal the nominal and market value of credit derivatives in its annual report later -- a step in the right direction, but not enough to satisfy many investors.

By contrast, HVB Group , Germany's second-largest bank, publishes detailed derivatives accounts, having listed the nominal and market value of its derivative swaps exposure for 2000 and plans again to do so for 2001.

Radley & Associates' Leach warned of the growing use of other risk-transfer tools, such as special purpose vehicles banks employ to move risks off their balance sheets to free up capital for more profitable activities.

Far from protecting banks, these SPVs can compound risks.

``It helps banks get around the curious eyes of regulators in terms of how much capital you have to hold,'' Leach said. ``I think these developments are sort of dramatic.''

Indeed, the Financial Services Authority (FSA), Britain's financial regulator, said recently it had taken a heightened interest in risk transfers to establish whether they create market instability.

``These transfers have taken more exotic forms such as synthetic collateralised debt obligations. One investment banker recently described these instruments to me as 'the most toxic element of the financial markets today,''' said FSA Chairman Howard Davies in a speech.

The Bank of England has led an examination into rising use of derivatives, concluding that they spread risks through the financial system and require close observation.

(additional reporting from Brinley Bruton in New York)

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(02/22/2002; 05:59:04 MDT - Msg ID: 70595)

$14.95 (plus tax) at bookstores everywhere; order direct for only $5.95!! (plus $3 postage)

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"Gold will play a critically important role in American investment portfolios in the years to come. This book provides investors a basic education on private gold ownership from one of the nation's top experts." --Rep. Ron Paul, Texas, U.S. House of Representatives

Please Remember: It is your purchase from Centennial Precious Metals / USAGOLD that nourishes these pages.

nickel62

(02/22/2002; 06:09:58 MDT - Msg ID: 70596)

Gold Standard

Your ounce of gold will purchase two tonnes of coffee when the dam breaks..OUT of the woodwork.

nickel62

(02/22/2002; 06:12:20 MDT - Msg ID: 70597)

Head count

Roughly a hundred and ten of us put in guesses for the contest....God I hope that the world is listening to what is said here. The comming financial problems are going to make us awfully lonely if we are the only ones prepared.

Black Blade

(02/22/2002; 07:10:13 MDT - Msg ID: 70598)

US to Reveal Details of New Chained CPI

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020222/business_economy_statistics_dc_1.html
Snippit:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is to unveil details of what it's calling a ''supplemental'' consumer price index, a gauge the agency says will provide a better cost-of-living measure.

The index is to be called the ``chained CPI,'' and it's meant to tackle a long-standing problem. Some experts think the conventional CPI overstates inflation because consumers react to price changes among different goods. For example, a shopper may load up on apples if they fall enough in price compared with oranges.

Using a mathematical formulas and data on consumer spending, the chained CPI is meant to deal with that issue of ''substitution bias.'' The BLS expects the chained CPI to increase about 0.1 to 0.2 percent slower than the conventional CPI on annual basis. The regular CPI rose at only a 1.1 percent annual rate in 2001.

Black Blade: More "Monkey Business" at the BLS. I guess that they figure this way they can screw the elderly and disabled outta their Social Security COLA's. These crooks at the BLS are really something else. If you think "hedonic deflators" are bad now, wait until this is implemented.

Black Blade

(02/22/2002; 07:18:45 MDT - Msg ID: 70599)

Accounting Delays PG&E Earnings

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-000013458feb22.story?coll=la%2Dheadlines%2Dbusiness
Snippit:

PG&E Corp. delayed announcing its earnings Thursday, citing accounting foul-ups with off-the-books financial vehicles. The echoes of Enron Corp. caused shares to tumble in early trading.

PG&E said it thinks that the financial vehicles, called "synthetic leases," used to keep three power plants and some electricity-generating turbines off its books, may not have had enough outside ownership under federal rules, which would require the San Francisco utility holding company to amend its financial statements back to 1999.

Black Blade: Yep, another one. Accounting scandals are popping up daily.

Black Blade

(02/22/2002; 07:23:58 MDT - Msg ID: 70600)

Europe in the Red

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?uJust before the NY open, Europe is in the red. Also, the USD is falling against most currencies. Market indices futures are up a little. Could be an "Interesting" day on Wall Street.

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(02/22/2002; 07:31:36 MDT - Msg ID: 70601)

Dollar Drops Against Euro, Yen on Speculative Selling

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/020222/200202220915000265_1.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK -- The dollar dropped sharply against the euro and was also sliding against the yen in choppy trading Friday.

Black Blade: Also the FRN is devaluing against Gold again - now worth only 0.0033932 ounces!

Gimme Shelter

(02/22/2002; 07:38:58 MDT - Msg ID: 70602)

Cooked books and missing subjects

It would also behoove those paying attention to these fiasco firms, to monitor our leaders.
How convenient that when 9-11-01 happened, Greenspan was in Europe, Bush in a school in Floria, Cheney probably at Enron.
I just do not believe the powers to be are going to go down standing. They are after all the largest manipulaters the world has known.

JCF

(02/22/2002; 08:57:03 MDT - Msg ID: 70603)

E-BAY seller collects, then disappears

http://www.msnbc.com/news/713634.asp?pne=msnBeware!

RobotGuy

(02/22/2002; 09:28:54 MDT - Msg ID: 70604)

Doan' looks lyke imo git me a golden ainjel

jlfletc

(02/22/2002; 09:47:38 MDT - Msg ID: 70605)

Re: Gimme Shelter

I hear you.....Preparing for the worst financially is commendable, however it shouldn't be all that one does. I agree with Gimme Shelter and Black Blade in the sense that one should simultaneously be preparing for all contingencies by accumulation of PM, food, supplies, and yes, tools of defense. It might be a bit simplistic at times, but for a very detailed look at a financial collapse scenario, I highly recommend "Patriots" by James Wesley, Rawles. Check out Amazon to read customer reviews of this book, they're almost as entertaining as the book itself. Thanks to everyone here for all of the intelligent posts. This forum has become my second stop of the day. God Bless!

Black Blade

(02/22/2002; 10:46:26 MDT - Msg ID: 70606)

Gold sales set to be subjected to tighter constraints

http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1030049-6094-0,00.html
Snippit:

LONDON The Bank of England's gold auction on March 5 will be its last until a pact capping major European central bank sales ends in 2004, when the banks are expected to jockey to unload more reserves into the market.

The Bundesbank's announcement this week that it may slowly sell some of its gold reserves from 2004, for assets generating higher returns, may provoke a scramble among banks previously loyal to gold to shed their holdings, analysts said.

The 1999 Washington Agreement set combined gold sales by the European Central Bank, its members, Switzerland, Sweden and Britain at 2000 tons and limited gold leasing volumes. With the deal nearly half way through, speculation has begun over whether it will be renewed as is, modified or abandoned.

Black Blade: The consensus is that the WA will be renewed at current levels. The last BoE auction is March 5th I believe.

Black Blade

(02/22/2002; 11:07:00 MDT - Msg ID: 70607)

Gold Fields says gold can withstand central banks

http://www.forbes.com/business/global/newswire/2002/02/22/rtr521689.html
Snippit:

LONDON, Feb 22 (Reuters) - The gold market is more resilient to central bank sales than before, despite Germany hinting this week that it may sell some reserves, the chairman of South Africa's Gold Fields Ltd said on Friday. "We're in a business of long winters and short summers and this looks like the beginning of a new spring," Chris Thompson, told an analysts briefing.

Thompson said diminishing mine supplies and the gold price's recent break through a dismal long-term downtrend to two-year highs would give pause to central bankers considering offloading their stocks. "In a falling gold market the political decision to sell gold, particularly when the alternative is the U.S. dollar that might rise and give interest, it's an easy decision to make." "But in a rising gold market...it's a tough decision for the banks to do and it will be interesting to see if the Bundesbank will do that," Thomson added.

The metal's rise was fuelled by disillusioned equity investors, the fallout from the Enron collapse, Japanese investors seeking a safe haven from their country's economic crisis and indications that major gold producers were reversing their policy on previous bearish foward sales.

Black Blade: At least Chris Thompson is one of those Gold miner CEO's who believes in his companies product. Quite different from Gold short cockroaches Olypants of Barrick and Booby Goldsellforward of AngloGold. I have to admit that I am surprised at how resilient Gold has been in light of the gullible investing public hearing a litany of negative comments. We appear to have turned a corner. Now if only we get a bit more follow-through from Japanese savers as the April Fools deadline approaches.

RobotGuy

(02/22/2002; 11:22:47 MDT - Msg ID: 70608)

B.B> You crack me up! LOL

uponroof

(02/22/2002; 11:31:23 MDT - Msg ID: 70609)

Can anyone tell me.....

why COMEX is still closing early.....now 5+ months after 911? Are they hiring? Can I get a job there? The 5 hour workday seems agreeable. I am all ears. LOL

So how far will manipulation and intervention go?

Regardless, the gold market is telling one very important thing...

Those that control all the money in the world, and have the resources to impact all markets are very frightened of 300+ gold. That equates to great vulnerability, containing wide spread ramifications, which could yeild a proportionate magnitude of 'profit'.

The question we all are asking is can this vulnerability be realized given the powerful entities defending, and the ease of which they are able to 'correct' POG with only a few choice words.

I have been watching this market for more than a few years and in doing so can see the underlying sentiment slowly but surely changing. A few years ago POG was but a toy to be played with by these 'strong dollar / currency kings' who laughed at accusations of intervention.

Lately, thanks to a failing global economy, exploding physical demand (mines and Japan) and GATA's legal pressure POG is not so easily toyed with in such cavalier manner. In fact, it is an enormous problem which is soiling more than a few pairs of shorts.

To answer the question regarding intervention completely involves information we are not privy to. For instance....to what length will the CBs go, in order to protect the bullion banks and commercial houses who are now at risk? I suspect the 'length' is considerable since the gold in question ultimately belongs to them. Is there perhaps a level of compromise they are trying to reach which would involve less damage, both politically and financially? What is less damage? How long will such a plan or any plan take? All unknown, all speculative at best.

For now one gets the impression they are on their heels, buying time in whatever manner possible. Hence the ridiculous, though effective, statement from Germany's Bank.

To that end, how many more times can these phoney statements regarding CB gold sales work? Each time trotted out it loses more credibility, becomming increasingly discounted. I would classify these actions as nothing less than desperate with rapidly falling market impact value. What they are playing on is ignorance, or lack of understanding of the 1999 Washington Agreement.

The Washington Agreement prohibits unscheduled gold sales of those signatories until 2004. England (BoE) has one more scheduled (previously) for this March worth 20 tonnes...a drop in the global bucket. Bundesbank's words the other day were hollow in every regard, and as Mr. Sinclair states will only serve to add strength to the 305 break....which will come as we continue down this path of global recession, kindling fear.

Because the encumbered CB gold is several times that of yearly production this is not an easy fix. Gold is not a typical fractional reserve entity, which is how it's been abused through strong dollar machinations. 'Repairs' require real gold, not the promisary notes (which btw are adding up) recieved thus far to postpone this reckoning.

There is no painless recourse for the irresponsible parties which played 'to the hilt' against the world's only store of true value. Now that devaluation of paper is sweeping the globe, the demand for real value (gold) is threatening their empires.

Natural market forces, screaming for higher POG, are being heard in ever increasing ways. The pressure is real, it's global and gaining momentum. Thanks to past policies of confinment, gold is going to be like a spring when it pops. As Mr. Sinclair states...."Gold may go much higher than I have been willing to consider".

When that occurrs is anyones guess. It might be triggered by one or several global eco-political calamities now upon us. What we all need to decide is simply this....

IS GOLD STILL CONSIDERED BY THE WORLD AT LARGE 'A SAFE HAVEN'?

If you believe it is, it's time to take a position in gold. Just too many triggers and too many people....and thanks to the poor policies of CBs and Bullion Banks, way too much explosive, self detonating gold.

Something has to give....higer POG, or obliteration from human memory (through CB announcements) gold as 'a store of value'. Place your bets...broke manipulators or global memory erradication?

RobotGuy

(02/22/2002; 11:39:31 MDT - Msg ID: 70610)

Lemming DOW

DOW in super "milking phase" today. I pity the poor lemmings. Someone's making a little extra cash for the weekend.

My idea of 'real wealthy guy' VS. 'stockbroker' dialogue.

RWG "Pick a large volume stock and buy like I've been tipped off"

SB "OK. I see where you're going with this"

RWG "Okay... wait... wait.. watch the lemmings.... and SELL NOW!"

SB "Right on bro, thanks for the comission, let's do it again!"

RWG "Aw heck why not it's the weekend!"

USAGOLD

(02/22/2002; 12:01:00 MDT - Msg ID: 70611)

Black Blade. . . .Gold Can Withstand Central Bank Sales

I completely agree with Chris Thompson and I completely agree with your characterization of Mr. Thompson as well. He's a good man. In fact worked in Denver for a few years -- the altitude must have affected his gold thinking (smile).

I'll give you an example to make the case:

The average gold scrap sales annually are something on the order of 600 tonnes, according to Gold Fields Mineral Services (not related to the gold-mining GoldFields). In 1998 when gold scrap went to 1100 tonnes (almost doubled) because of the Asian meltdown, net hedging dropped from 472 tonnes the previous year to 60 tonnes the same year the scrap supply nearly doubled. Similarly, net hedging spiked in 1995 when official sector sales were noticeably on the wane.

In other words, the elasticity to the market was provided through hammering away on the mining companies to sell gold forward. If stalwarts in the industry like Thompson, Murdy, Lassonde, et al are correct that we've turned the corner on hedging and we are going into rapid decline on that line item, this takes an important tool out of the hands of the bullion bankers who have used it as a regulating device. To the typical businessman or practical financial-type the whole thing looks backwards because usually we view supply (manufacture) as coming first and then you sell it. What's been going on in the gold market is the demand comes first and the bullion bankers do what it is necessary to fill it.

So when in 1998, gold scrap from Asia fulfilled the need, net hedging came down. In 1994 -1995 when official sector sales cratered, hedging more than tripled year over year to cover it. Once that regulating device is removed, no one knows what the reaction is going to be but most of the experts are now saying its going to be positive for the gold price. That's why you see top-notch mine company executives like Chris Thompson alluding to it whenever they get the chance -- IT'S THAT IMPORTANT!

The Bundesbank Maneuver is just that -- a maneuver, a ploy meant to offset the developing bullishness following the Newmont merger and the general change of sentiment in the mining industry with respect to hedging. They are trying to make some gold depositor feel good about their deposit in the face of a potential major run-up in the price.

Between now and the date the Bundesbank can sell any gold, there will be a German election (thanks CB), a potential worldwide liquidity crisis led by Japan, and a continued currency war (meltdown) in the third world with all the attendant consequences to money-center lenders (not to speak of the fantasy-land corporate balance sheets they've all lent against). . . .Most importantly the supply-demand tables will begin to show that the net hedging elasticity has disappeared. The odds are against the Bundesbank on this one and, even if they do sell, it will be into a market desperately in need of metal. The bullion bank black hole I alluded to the other day is alive and well -- and sucking every bit of physical out of the market it can find. That's why we continue to caution investors to purchase the physical metal whenever they get the opportunity and store it nearby. The biggest open secret in the gold mining business today is the lack of metal in any size. Demand from both official and private sector investors is the real force driving this market over the long run and they will do everything they can along the way to dent gold sentiment. All to no avail. Instead of bumping up incrementally like it would in a normal market, because of the circumstances outlined here, gold is likely to explode one day -- just as it did in the early 1970s after the London Gold Pool broke down. . . .the last time a concerted effort was made to hold down the price. Markets tend to eventually move in the direction opposite any controls -- once the controls are either willingly or forcibly removed. If the control has been radical, the response in the opposite direction will be radical as well. Planning for that event has paid off handsomely in the past. In my view, it will pay off handsomely again -- not just in currency profits but peace of mind.

P.S. We continue to get a strong flow of people with IRAs moving some of their retirement into gold. This is a good idea under current circumstances when you simply don't know what the real situation is with the stocks you hold -- are they profitable companies or aren't they? Simple money markets aren't paying anything and taking a major hit after inflation is taken into consideration. And we aren't even talking about future inflation, but the current rate! Call George Cooper at the office for details.

Also, the $10 gold pieces are moving very well. This is a good deal and we encourage your looking into it.

Pls excuse any typos etc. I'm getting this up fast between telephone calls.

Gandalf the White

(02/22/2002; 13:01:24 MDT - Msg ID: 70612)

SIR MK -- Re: CONTEST

You have Email !
Get the TRUMPETS ready.
<;-)

RobotGuy

(02/22/2002; 13:02:23 MDT - Msg ID: 70613)

Christmas Bonus

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BE6F2AB22%2D5AF2%2D402E%2DB13C%2D77D0E96E28DD%7D&siteid=mktw

Snippet:

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- A lot of Americans may have been expecting a bonus from their employer at year's end, but the only bonus most got was to keep their job.

Almost 60 percent of employees in a recent survey said they got nothing extra in their year-end paycheck in 2001. Of those, 44 percent said they thought they were going to receive the added compensation, a survey by TrueCareers found
.....................(more to article)

RobotGuy: I used to get marvelous Christmas bonuses at my last company, one year it was two full weeks pay based on your entire annual average weekly hours, and two paid weeks off!!
This year I received nothing, no party, no bottle of wine, nothing, not even a christmas card, hell, not even an e-card. What would you expect the ramifications of this will be if 60% of all North Americans didn't get this expected bonus? A lot of credit card debt. Who lives paycheck to paycheck? A hell of a lot of people that's who. How will you make your payments on your regular/reduced income?

Last question; Is there anybody out there who truly believes this market is in recovery mode??

Black Blade has been reliable as long as I can remember participating in this forum, and I'm sure well before my time. We've not even seen the beginning of this so called recession.

Markets in recovery mode,....BAH!!!

RobotGuy

(02/22/2002; 13:05:17 MDT - Msg ID: 70614)

OH!, and by the way.....

Congratulations SIR MK!!!!! You lucky goldbug you.

Gimme Shelter

(02/22/2002; 13:10:33 MDT - Msg ID: 70615)

Physical delivery

So the task at hand for one ready to move into gold is,first find the best price per ounce, then how much is it to be delivered.
In researching this, what is the price and all of the fees associated with the purchase.
Who in the USA has the ability to provide Joe consumer a price on a 400oz bar delivered to his home, that beats everyother gold broker?
What does USA Gold charge for this transaction?

RobotGuy

(02/22/2002; 13:24:24 MDT - Msg ID: 70616)

@Gimme Shelter

I'm personally thinking about going to the U.S. and purchasing my gold wherever it is sold with the lowest add-ons, close to the border, and smuggle it back to avoid nasty Canadian taxes. I know,.. I'm a very bad man.

jlfletc

(02/22/2002; 13:32:55 MDT - Msg ID: 70617)

Contest

So, what was the winning price?

nickel62

(02/22/2002; 13:45:04 MDT - Msg ID: 70618)

Not an ad but I have bought gold and had it delivered to my house

from our host Centennial and been very happy with the price and the service. I shopped the market and found their markup to be the most reasonable from someone I was willing to trust with my money. Having been a lurker and a poster here for almost three years I think I owe them an acknowledgment when someone asks who sells gold in bulk at a fair price. Thanks for the web site Centennial.

Gandalf the White

(02/22/2002; 13:56:47 MDT - Msg ID: 70619)

WINNER(S) of the GCG02 Settlement Price Guessing CONTEST !

Congratulations to the TWO LUCKY WINNERS !!

The COMEX GCG02 Settlement Price today was ****$293.2****

(Sir MK says) Because no one would dare to cut a lucky Angel in half, we will award two Angels to the lucky winners. Sir jkfletc and Sir Boilermaker shall both receive the "Gold Metal" French 20 Franc gold Lucky Angel coin.
(Similar to the one shown at the link: http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/FrenchAng.html)
Please go ahead and make the announcement with the proper fanfare. I suppose I can handle those infernal trumpets one more time.

(The Wiz, plugging his ears, says:) OK !!

TA, TA, TA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAA, TAAA, TAAA, TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!

(Sir MK says:) OH! My ears. I can only take so much of that sort of thing, as you know. And everytime something happens here. . .there's the trumpets!. . . . . . .Who's idea was it to have trumpeters anyway?. . .
Is there some way we can have them stop with those infernal trumpets and fanfare everytime we do things like this?.. . .. . ....Perhaps we can meet at the Table with the rest of the Knights and Ladies and discuss that. Can't we get StradMaster to play something soft and mellow on his violin?. . . . .I love the violin. So subtle. . . . . Understated. . . .Bach. . .yes, Let's make it Bach. . . .Just a thought.

(The Wiz respectfully replies:) Sorry, Sir MK, StradMaster must be booked, as he has not been seen at the Castle for a while, but we have sent out the Hobbits to find him. <;-)
---
THE WINNING ENTRIES !!! As the Settlement price on Friday, 22nd of Feb. was ****$293.2****
---
jlfletc (02/20/02; 12:14:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 70463)
Contest guess
****$293.30*****
I think POG will recover slightly by week end, but I think the past couple of days show the ferocity of the Paper Pushers and their agenda.
---
Boilermaker (02/21/02; 10:11:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 70540)
Contest
********$293.10*******
Looks like the price drifting higher but expect Friday sellback. Also, a friend at JPM owes me a favor and will provide some market "guidance" tomorrow. Just kidding.
======
NOTE from The Wiz -- I wish to thank all of you for your patience and understanding for all my errors, and only hope that you all had as much fun with this CONTEST as I did in trying to manage it. The comment notes to the "Price Guesses" were an extra bonus to see your "THOUGHTS" !! Thanks !
<;-)

RobotGuy

(02/22/2002; 14:05:22 MDT - Msg ID: 70620)

Lucky Angels Winners!

Congratulations you lucky golbugs!

(sorry about earlier mistaken message, I thought SIR MK won! Duh you can see how well I pay attention)

sector

(02/22/2002; 14:37:38 MDT - Msg ID: 70621)

Who's Minding Derivatives?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A49526-2002Feb21.htmlWho's Minding Derivatives?
By Kathleen Day
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, February 22, 2002; Page E01

It's a market that's fast growing, worth trillions of dollars and credited with keeping the economy rolling. It's also a tangle of largely unregulated financial contracts that have played a role in at least five major financial scandals in the last eight years, including that of Enron Corp.

Could the current hand-wringing in Congress finally prompt oversight of this extremely valuable, highly volatile web of financial agreements known as the over-the-counter derivatives market?

Thomas J. Erickson, commissioner of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, says he's not overly optimistic. Since being appointed commissioner in June 1999 by then-President Clinton, Erickson's has been one of the few voices in Washington calling for greater federal oversight of these derivatives.

Even as Congress holds dozens of hearings into Enron's collapse, Erickson points out it was Congress that just over a year ago passed legislation allowing energy contracts like those at the heart of Enron's business to be traded with no government oversight.

He opposed that aspect of the December 2000 legislation, despite its support from Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan and a fellow Clinton appointee, then-CFTC Chairman William J. Rainer. Erickson continues to oppose it, a stance that puts him at odds with the current CFTC chairman, Bush appointee James E. Newsome.

"In the Wake of Enron, I believe that it is more important than ever for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to inform Congress of the potential risks associated with the unregulated trading of derivatives," he wrote to the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee recently to underscore he didn't agree with Newsome's testimony before the panel at the end of January. ]
+++++++++++++++++++
First they find JPM set up Mahonia...now even the CFTC head is waxing for regs...who knows, maybe it will happen...long after the MoTU leaves of course.

BTW since nothing is confirmed until it is officially denied, does today's denial by AG mean that he IS really gone?

RobotGuy

(02/22/2002; 14:41:30 MDT - Msg ID: 70622)

Just did some minor calculations

Called a local dealer. Dealer markup of a random dealer one ounce maple plus mandatory Provincial Sales Tax adds slightly less than CDN$100 to every ounce purchased. Converted to $US for this dealer, gold in your hand price was US$348.49 Now you know where I'm coming from with my complaints about dealer markup and taxes.

Boilermaker

(02/22/2002; 14:54:52 MDT - Msg ID: 70623)

Contest

Many, many thanks to the esteemed proprietor of this site, MK and the faithful Gandalf the White for making my day. I was watching the Kitco chart ($290.9 close) and thought so close but no angel. Bless all the marvelous and far more deserving contributors and contest competitors for making this forum my favorite spot to visit and learn.

I'm happy to say that I'm a customer of CPM and that this angel will be in good company. As a mostly lurker I hope to contribute in the future. I can relate to the energy messages from BB since I was in the power generation equipment business for many years. My first big sucess in the market was the O&G boom in the late 70's. Now retired, I have a farm with two oil/gas stripper wells that were drilled in 1950. They keep my house warm and I sell some crude, probably join OPEC if asked.

R Powell

(02/22/2002; 15:14:35 MDT - Msg ID: 70624)

Contest-- just missed!

I saw right away that the Invisible Hand had guessed slightly high at $8,752 and that Limit Up was a tad low at $1,500. I thought for sure that sneaking in-between at $5,126 was the proper strategic move. I'm going to have to refine my system just a little bit.
Congratulations to jlfletc and Boilermaker!! Thanks also to the Wizard for his outstanding work.
And, being Friday-
Happy Weekend to all!!!
Rich

Gimme Shelter

(02/22/2002; 16:38:48 MDT - Msg ID: 70625)

Physical delivery

Man dont I know that.
I am trying to find a source for 3pgolds currency hedging, but they are soooo different and far between. I guess I need to continue my correspondence with George to establish our relationship.
How will we ever give the mines another product, if we can never get the dang thing off of the ground because of the markups of the dealers and everyone in between. I honestly do not know how the other gold currency's can do it, auditably.
Thanks for your insight.
Congrats to todays lucky Winners!

Bullrider

(02/22/2002; 16:57:34 MDT - Msg ID: 70626)

Gold/Silver: The Brewing "Perfect Storm"

Since my last posted essay was received quite warmly by many of you (thank you to all who responded!) I thought I might share the following article, which I first wrote for the folks at GATA in March last year after I'd watched the movie, "The Perfect Storm". Although Chris Powell included it in GATA's YahooGroups archives, it never really saw the light of day, and most people never got a chance to read it. I humbly offer it for your perusal here and, as ever, welcome any feedback. As you'll see later in the article, this information may prove to be much more timely now than it was when I wrote it last year. I hope you enjoy it.

I have been bothered lately by one of those mental frustrations we all have occasionally in which you know you have a piece of information somewhere in your memory banks but just can't seem to access it. For some unknown reason -- due mostly to the unfathomable workings of the incredible, Universal Consciousness we refer to as "mind" -- a distant memory began to surface over the past couple of weeks involving something I read more than 20 years ago in one of Buckminster Fuller's amazing books entitled, "Critical Path."

I was still in college at Southwest Texas State University when I read it back in 1981 and had the privilege to hear a lecture by the old geezer himself just the year before, which was shortly before his death. "Bucky," as he was affectionately called, was truly one of the 20th century's most brilliant thinkers, as nearly everyone who is familiar with his work will agree. You may recall that he was the inventor of, among many other things, the geodesic dome, a structure which is self-supporting no matter how large it is built. To refer to Fuller merely as a "genius" would be to severely understate this amazing human being.

Although I was only about 22 at the time and was far too young to be concerned with such "useless" and "mundane" things as investing for my future (God, if only I had known!), for some reason something Fuller said in the book regarding gold, and metals in general, stuck in my mind all these years. (Come to think of it, this may be one of the few things I learned in college that DID stick, probably because I chose to read Fuller's work on my own -- strictly out of intense interest in the man -- and not because some professor assigned it.)

Well, to make a long story much longer, I couldn't stand the cognitive puzzling, so I decided to track down a copy of the book. I called all around the city and couldn't find it in any of the bookstores, but one of the branches of our public library (ah, the well-spent tax dollar at work!) had a single copy -- hardback, no less!

I spent an hour or so perusing the sections of the book listed in the index under "gold" and finally found the information my mind so faithfully locked away more than two decades ago. Why this would stick in my head during a period of my life when I had absolutely no interest in the subject of gold I cannot explain. But perhaps there truly are no coincidences, and it just may be that the Universe was simply storing the information away for me until it was most appropriately brought forth.

Allow me to quote directly from Fuller at this point, bearing in mind that, with your patience, I will attempt to show how all this copper-related information may relate in an amazingly timely manner to the present gold/silver situation:

* * *

"Metals recirculate on a sum-total-of-all-metals-average every 22 1/2 years....

I was able to arrive at that figure of a 22 1/2-year metals recirculating cycle in 1936. I was working for Phelps Dodge Co., which had asked me to give them some prognostications about the uses of copper in the future of world industry.

Copper is the most plentiful of the most efficient electric power production and conduction metals. World War I was a power-production war. And copper is the most plentiful of non-sparking metals and is therefore logically employed in connection with gunpowder-handling equipment such as the shells inserted into the gun breeches. Because of these facts, the demand for copper in 1917 was epochally great.

Not long before World War I and its huge demand for copper, copper-ore-to-pure-metal reduction by the vastly less expensive flotation process and the also much less expensive electrolytic refining brought the cost of mining and refining copper so low that the cash value of the average amounts of recoverable gold and silver co-occurring with the copper ... exactly paid for all the mining and refining of the copper itself. The whole price paid for copper was profit. The mineowners then decided to mine only when the prices bid for copper were at a peak. The prices bid always peaked in wartime. With World War I over, the world copper cartel waited and worked for the start of World War II.

In the 1930s the big copper companies were badly bothered by the influx of copper into the marketplace. Up to the time when I came to study the copper situation, the rates of evolutionary change were so slow that the mineowners had no idea that the copper they sold would ever come back on the market to disturb their price.

By 1936 the copper price controls were completely challenged by the scrap influx. Phelps Dodge asked me to do some research on the problem, so I reviewed all the known, published data of the metals world. In the metals world very accurate records are kept about how metals have been and are now being used. Very profitable publications are maintained by the affluent metals businesses. Very accurate inventories exist detailing, for instance, how much of a given metal is built into an automobile.

In 1936 there was only about 30 pounds of copper in each American automobile. Copper is expensive, and the auto manufacturers try to keep the use of expensive metals to a minimum. However, considerable copper is used in a gas station -- for instance, in all the gas-tank-filling nozzle equipment -- because it is non-sparking. You couldn't possibly use a sparking metal such as steel around gasoline.

I was able to arrive at that previously undiscovered 22 1/2-year recycling figure by very carefully integrating the total inventory of the in-use tonnages of metals in all the main categories of their use -- for instance, the inventoried copper in all extant buildings, in old roofings, gutterings, and flashings, brass pipes, and so forth. The total inventory of copper in old buildings, both business and residential, is an inventory that becomes obsolete and is scrapped and recirculated on an overall average of once every 50 years. Within the building category copper comes out faster from big city buildings than from single-family country residences....

By taking the invention-gestation rates in the different industries ... we integrate the amount of copper in each use-category and their respective number of years of use, and thus find the average rate at which copper (and all the metals) come back as scrap every 22 1/2 years.

The unprecedented great World War I copper production occurred primarily in America. In one year, 1917, humanity took more copper out of the ground, refined it, and put it to work than had been cumulatively produced in all the world throughout all previously recorded history.

This produced in 1917 a vertical cliff on the "all-history charts of world copper production." Adding 22 1/2 years to 1917 would bring the date of reappearance of the crest of the 1917 world-record production scrap to July 1939. So I told Phelps Dodge in 1936 that three years later, in July 1939, they were going to be overwhelmed by scrap.

Meanwhile, I became the science and technology consultant on the editorial staff of Fortune magazine in 1938. In July 1939 the head of research for Phelps Dodge called me up on the telephone and said, "Bucky, your 22 1/2-year scrap-return prediction is absolutely right. Go down to the New York docks and observe." I did so. Alongside all the great cargo ships were cargo barges filled with scrap metals, piled enormously high.

Copper is plentiful enough to be trustworthily used but scarce enough to be used only in the most efficient manner. Copper is a sensitive metal -- the so-called bellwether of the metals. Whatever copper does indicates exactly what the other metals are going to do in the price and production markets; for instance, steel scrap was also coming back at exactly the same rate as copper -- 22 1/2 years after production from newly mined ore.

Hoping to protect their anticipated very high prices when World War II came along, and all unbeknownst to the general public, all the U.S. metals owners in 1939 were selling all their scrap metal to Germany and Japan to have it fired back at America two years later when World War II did come along for the United States. It was not a moral thing for the scrapmongers to do. The public had not the slightest idea what was going on -- the American business public didn't catch on to the idea of metal-scrap recirculation until long after World War II was over. The American and world publics have not as yet caught on to the significance of recirculating scrap metals...."

* * *

First, note that Fuller does not say that all metals run in exactly the same cycles, but that, ON AVERAGE, they do run in 22 1/2-year cycles. Second, it should come as no surprise that no period in human history -- and no significant MARKET, for that matter -- is free of scoundrels, and the copper market back then was apparently no exception.

I find it interesting that Fuller singles out copper as the bellwether metal. Since copper began its most recent move upward in early 1999 to the peak of the move in the fall of 2000, it rose roughly 50 percent. On the other hand, gold, during the same period, fell nearly 12 percent. This is a 60+ percent swing -- an amount far too great, in my opinion, to be naturally occurring. Platinum and palladium went through the roof in that same period, while more exotic metals, such as rhodium, headed to the moon.

Given Fuller's observations about the metals cycles, it seems all the more strange that gold and silver continue -- pardon the pun -- "bucking" the trend, oddly exempt from healthy gains even during otherwise robust metals appreciation periods such as the one described above. Fuller's calculations obviously could not account for unnatural, outside factors such as artificial market supply manipulations.

Readers familiar with modern precious metals pricing history will note that the last time gold and silver prices began skyrocketing was in the fall of 1979. A quick addition of Fuller's approximate 22-and-1/2-year cycle beginning from that autumn brings us precisely to the the first several months of the present year of 2002! (Again, please remember the 22.5 years is a "sum-total-of-all-metals AVERAGE.")

We should note that the extreme supply/demand imbalance that began to grow acute in early 1979 and ran throughout most of the following year actually started showing signs of arrival as early as the latter half of 1976. In a "normal" market cycle, this pattern is fairly typical. No such precursors are presently evident in the gold market; even given its recent runup to $300, gold is still well below even its October 1999, post-Washington Agreement peak of approximately $330.

Buy why, if Fuller's assertion of the 22 1/2-year metals cycle is accurate, have we not seen a steady, gradual increase in the prices of gold and silver over the last year or two? We can assume, I suppose, that those who actually need the metals in hard, physical supply (as opposed to temporary paper-based "holdings") are evidently securing all they require -- for the moment. There has, apparently, been enough physical metal available for the past several years to satisfy the industries that use it. Those of us who follow these markets know full well that much of this supply was "mined" directly from the vaults of various governments' central banks!

Given Fuller's scientific claims described above, therefore, a reasonable person might begin to wonder why, at the tail end of what Fuller states is a completely predictable cycle, gold and silver prices never seem to climb AT LEAST CYCLICALLY along with the prices of other precious metals. Of course, the reasons have been well-documented by GATA and individuals such as Ted Butler for some time now. Still, the evidence presented here seems to lend ever more credence to the claims that something is very wrong in Goldville, especially considering the precarious economic environment which prevails.

Assuming that the unprecedented high prices paid for the precious metals in the approximate 12-month period beginning in late-1979 brought forth unprecedented supply, one can reasonably ask why the ever-decreasing price and supply of these same metals in recent years hasn't brought about the usual result of such occurrences: higher demand and higher prices (bear in mind the old addage: "The cure for low prices is low prices!). Anyone who has followed GATA's stream of high-quality information on this subject over the past couple of years knows, of course, that gold demand HAS been rising steadily -- and for several years running. All the more strange, one would think, that the price of gold has, for about four years now, remained at prices not otherwise seen since -- you guessed it -- 1979!

As I write this letter from my dwelling in south Texas, it is approaching midnight. And I can't help but think that, somewhere in the world tonight, there is a bullion dealer, or perhaps a central banker, or maybe just a fellow with lots of money and power and the right connections, lying in bed, drifting off to sleep with a barely perceptible smile of smug self-satisfaction on his face -- thinking, no doubt, that he is immune to the forces of truth; that his cleverness will continue to exempt him from accountability; that his divine manifest destiny will continue unabated. Little does he know of the approaching events which will expose him for the moral pauper he is. From the north, the cold, cruel winds of GATA's
mounting case against him are converging on the warm, clear natural metals cycle moving in from the south, compounded by the foundational stresses of a world financial structure based on fiat, paper currencies and the dangerous, complex instruments derived from their manipulation (derivatives). Together, these forces are quickly -- and surely -- preparing to create the loud, thunderous, and hellish cyclone that will rip his reality asunder almost overnight. Together, they are quietly forming the "perfect storm."

Gandalf the White

(02/22/2002; 17:00:17 MDT - Msg ID: 70627)

NOW HEAR THIS !

Would the two LUCKY WINNERS of the French Angel coins please provice their mailing address, via EMAIL, to Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. at
--
jill@usagold.com
--
PS: ONLY messages from the KNOWN ISP coded winners will be accepted.
Thanks
<;-)

CoBra(too)

(02/22/2002; 17:03:57 MDT - Msg ID: 70628)

Others are starting to get it!

Bill Fleckenstein's Market Raps are more and more leaning towards gold as an investment. Today he quotes a nimble market timer - a gold bug at heart - who is bullish NOW, after shunning gold for 20 years; Remarkable ...

***Away from stocks, fixed income was fairly firm. The dollar was mixed, up against the yen and down against the euro. The precious metals were basically unchanged.

Gartman's Gold Chain Letter I know some readers are very familiar with the bullish case for gold, and no one has done a better job of delineating those points than my good friend Jim Grant, but in his letter today, Dennis Gartman lobbied rather effectively on behalf of the "why now" case. Rather than giving you a lot of the fundamentals, he describes the very powerful change in psychology that I, too, believe is under way. Rap readers should take all the more note of his bullish remarks, since they come from someone who has been correctly bearish for the last 20 years. So, for those of you who are not familiar with why one ought to consider gold and why one might want to consider it now, herewith his reasoning:

Friday Is Metal Health Day "Most interesting, however, is the strength in the precious metals, with gold staging a very strong performance, finding support as it must in recent sessions, despite what seems to be overwhelmingly bearish news from Germany earlier this week that the government there will be a supplier of gold to the market in size when the British and Swiss gold sales are finished. We understand the arguments put forth by many in the gold market that Mr. Welteke's announcement is stunningly bearish, for by announcing potential German Bundesbank gold sales, he has opened the door for gold sales by other European central banks in the future, also. Simply put, if the Germans shall be selling gold, what then of the Belgians, of the Italians, of the French, et al? If the most conservative central bank is to be a seller of its gold, what then of the more 'liberal' central bankers? Certainly, their only course of action shall be to line up behind the Swiss when they are done, and follow the German lead."

Jeepers Creepers, Where'd You Get Those Seepers? Gartman continues: "This is the argument that very knowledgeable friends in the industry have put forth, and their argument is certainly a reasonable, even a powerful one. However, the investment climate in the world is changing. The great bull market in equities that has marked the world since the early 1980s may have ended two years ago, and if that argument is correct, then money continually seeping from the equities markets will find its way to other investments. If it finds its way to gold, it shall dwarf the gold sales that the central bankers are able to muster."

Of Teutonic Sales & Tectonic Gales Finally, he says, "We have hesitated turning bullish on gold for a very long while. Our clients and our friends have always, always, always heard us decry gold as an investment since the 1980s. But the market has refused to forge new lows; it has held, and it is showing signs of vigor. Holding and now rallying in the face of the German announcement is most impressive. We have always wondered how the market would respond to a concerted effort by the central bankers to 'talk' gold lower. Now it appears that the market is willing to take the bankers on. We sense a tidal shift in sentiment, and if so, it is a very long time in the coming."
****

No further comment from cb2 - just have a great weekend all.

slingshot

(02/22/2002; 17:13:16 MDT - Msg ID: 70629)

Congratulations

And other comments.Congratulations to Jlfletc and Boilermaker for winning the Gold.
Thank you USAGOLD for having the contest and The Wizard for his assistance in the contest.

To all those who entered. More than ever as I read. Good to have you on board. Why so long? Over one hundred and the ranks of the Goldbug is still growing!

Plenty of thoughts today but one that strikes a chord.
We have discussed preparations. Gold, Guns, food, water and just plain survival skills. Now the kicker.

CAN THEY SHUT THE WEB DOWN! We all have been fortunate to exchange information on this terrific form of communication.
If they can have a Bank Holiday, can they have a Web Holiday? All the information we share here the average guy on the street has no Idea or does not believe it. This Patriots Act could stand in the way when things get rough.
The Freedom we Enjoy Now may not last forever.
Any thoughts?

Slingshot

CoBra(too)

(02/22/2002; 17:43:51 MDT - Msg ID: 70630)

Interesting Thought on Internet ...

Slingshot - being the real armour against total loss of
liberty. A reverse 1984, or the real souverein, the people
watching Big Brother, directly. Not the Congress, who has been 'directly' elected to do the job (Congressman like Ron Paul and a few others excepted).

I personally don't feel there's a chance to supress the net. It has grown exponentially and any meddling by the PTB's would probably lead to revolution.

Information - the greatest power of mankind - may well be self-defeating for any political power mongers. This site bears witness to the fact.

Forget guns - go information on the net, not the syndicated dis-information of the mainstream media spin, nor the political 'correct', and don't forget ... hold as much fungible gold as you can afford - cb2

* The next 3 pages are purposely left blank, instead of the usual disclaimer of such lenght - As you don't need one for recommending the holding of gold!

R Powell

(02/22/2002; 18:44:24 MDT - Msg ID: 70631)

Adam Hamilton's weekly offering

http://www.zealllc.com/2002/bustpf.htm The link goes to the printer friendly essay which my printer just finished printing. Let's see, How many prints could a printer print if a printer could print prints? Oh, sorry, it's eight pages this week for those who like Mr. Hamilton's work.
Happy weekend
Rich

turkey hunter

(02/22/2002; 18:57:17 MDT - Msg ID: 70632)

U.S. Treasury gold

http://www.fms.treas.gov/gold/02-01.htmlThe US treasury has updated their gold holdings. According to my figures they are short a little over 6000 oz from January 31 2001. I guess that's not bad. :)

R Powell

(02/22/2002; 19:11:35 MDT - Msg ID: 70633)

CoBra(Too) // Enron

Thanks for the Fleckenstein news. It's nice to be able to once again read the "Rap". Along with presenting well written, knowledgeable market summaries, I also greatly enjoy his subtle sense of humor. As a silver loving poster once said, participation to gain knowledge, profits and some fun.
This Enron news keeps festering and struggling to be seen in the light of day. Thanks to those watching and reporting. Will there be a sequel? Who will be next. Another one disclosed hiding behind phoney accounting or, more damaging still, someone else brought down through counterparty risk to Enron. This might bring the falling domino theory back into vogue and severely shake investors' confidence. Whether money flows into stocks as herd mentality momentum investing or well-thought out investments based on confidence, Enron type failures may bring a severe downturn to stock ownership soon.
Thoughts?
Rich

R Powell

(02/22/2002; 19:22:17 MDT - Msg ID: 70634)

Another goodie

http://www.financialsense.com/series3/intro.htm "Powershift: Oil, Money + War" by Jim Puplava

sourdough

(02/22/2002; 19:25:24 MDT - Msg ID: 70635)

Does the press not get it or do they not want their readers to get it?

The Japanese flock are being herded into gold. A re priced Gold will bring about domestic led economic recovery. The rest of the world must not realize this until the timing is right.........sourdough

February 23, 2002
Hock Lock Siew

Japan property a deflation hedge?

Views are divided over whether the huge household savings will flow into real estate

By
Anthony Rowley

TOKYO stock prices have plunged in the wake of US President George Bush's failure to prod the Japanese government into action on economic stimulus, and likewise government bond prices and the yen have fallen back in disappointment. It seems that the flight from just about every class of financial asset is set to continue in Japan. And against this background, a new debate has begun about the value of land and real estate as a deflation hedge.

Views differ sharply on the subject. Some believe that Japan's huge household savings will flow into land and real estate, as these are 'cheap', and safer than paper assets. (Gold is already enjoying a minor boom in Japan for similar reasons.) Others say that land and real estate prices still have much further to fall and that investors should steer well clear.

Either way, the issue is of interest to portfolio investors as a series of real estate investment trusts or REITs is about to come to the market soon.

Akiyoshi Inoue, head of Sanyu System Research Institute is super-bearish. 'Land prices in Japan will be reduced to a half of their current levels over the next five years,' he said. And, since land in Japan typically represents a very high proportion of the costs of a building, real estate prices are set to plunge too.

This is a devastating prospect given that land prices have already collapsed by some 80 per cent on average in Japan since the bursting of the bubble economy 10 years ago (exceeding even the 74 per cent drop in Tokyo equity prices since that time).

Building boom: Certainly, anyone visiting Tokyo or other major cities at present is likely to be astonished by the sheer volume of construction activity, including mega-projects such as the redevelopment of Tokyo's Roppongi district and developments at Shiodome and Shinagawa. The reason for all this activity is that land prices have fallen so far, and interest rates on loans to finance construction are so low, that it makes sense to build now.

Meanwhile, the supply of land and real estate coming on to the market is set to accelerate dramatically. First, the system of auctioning land held as collateral for defaulted loans is being improved under pressure from the official Financial Services Agency, and there is some 20 trillion yen of such property overhanging the market.

Construction firms are likely to begin disposing of sites in their land banks as they lose faith in a price recovery, and public housing corporations are likely to dispose of residential units. Foreign investors who scooped up Japanese real estate at 'fire-sale' prices in recent years have begun feeding some of it back into the market. Also, farm land in the suburbs will be sold for redevelopment. Finally, the relaxation of floor-area ratios permitting higher buildings will reduce demand for land.

Against such a wealth of bearish factors, it seems hard to be bullish, and yet macro-economics suggests that the pessimists may be wrong. Japan's household savings now stand at almost 1,400 trillion yen (S$19 trillion) , a mind-boggling sum equal to nearly three times the nation's annual GDP. Most of this money is deposited with banks and yields a derisory rate of interest. Japanese savers are used to that, but now they have begun to lose faith in the safety of banks. Also, they are losing faith in Japanese government bonds, and equities are right out of favour.

Good hedge: As a possible financial system crisis looms, land and property may well begin to look like a good hedge, especially as mortgage rates are at rock bottom.

There is also another scenario that could boost land and real estate prices sharply, along with those of other assets - namely, that the Bank of Japan may be forced to 'monetise' much of the debt in the system. It would do this by directly buying assets from private and public entities, to relieve them of their colossal debt burden and reversing deflation.

R Powell

(02/22/2002; 19:26:23 MDT - Msg ID: 70636)

Another one

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/barron.htm "Straight Talk on Mining" by Keith Barron

Canuck

(02/22/2002; 20:14:57 MDT - Msg ID: 70637)

Spelling quiz

My 11 year old daughter approaches me tonight after dinner and blurts, "Hey Dad, how do you spell Canada?"

Knowing that she is about to pull my leg I say, "How do you spell Canada, dear?"

"C eh!, n eh!, d eh!"

I guess we get our reputation honestly.

Congratulations to the contest winners and thanks to Gandalf and USAGOLD.

Have a golden week-end.

Canuck

Black Blade

(02/22/2002; 21:35:42 MDT - Msg ID: 70638)

jlfletc and Boilermaker! - You Bums! (just kidding)

I swear they had inside information (grin). Congratulations! As Maxwell Smart would say - "I missed it by that much" Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(02/22/2002; 22:04:20 MDT - Msg ID: 70639)

Friday's Stock Market Round-Up - Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
A good report from Puplava tonight.

Snippit:

For most economists and analysts on Wall Street the recession is believed to be over. In a recent survey done by the National Association for Business Economics, most economists surveyed this month believe the recession is over. The recession, which many believe has just ended, is one of the shortest and mildest recessions on record. That is because in this recession housing and consumer spending did not turn down as in previous recessions. Due to lower interest rates consumers were able to refinance debt, which enabled consumption to remain strong. In addition, lower interest rates kept the housing market with mortgage rates falling to the lowest level in four decades. Another factor contributing to the mild recession was the new bubble in real estate. Rising real estate prices enabled consumers to extract more equity out of their homes through refinancing which helped to prop up consumer spending.

Black Blade: I have already discussed these situations. Real Estate is a bubble just waiting to be popped. People have low rates and are refinancing to continue a life-style that they probably cannot afford and are digging themselves into an ever-deeper hole. As far as economists believing that the Recession is over - "Ignorance is bliss!" These are the same people who didn't even know that the US was in Recession for a year or more after it began (I called it in March-April 2000 - sold my most my tech holdings and I sure as hell am not an economist). They are sure quick to declare the end of the Recession. I don't buy it, besides their track record is pathetic.

Snippit:

Since we now live in a world of make believe the government is ready to unveil a new version of the CPI. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release a chain weighted version of the CPI. The government believes the current version of the CPI overstates inflation. From the government's perspective there will be a family of indexes that measure inflation. In other words, we will now have pro forma economic numbers. If you don't like the results of one index you can go with another one that looks better.

Black Blade: I ditto that! If anything, the "hedonic deflators" and "seasonal factors" and a myriad of other statistical massaging filters mean that inflation as determined by the CPI is grossly understated. A good way of cheating retirees out of their COLA adjustments though.

Snippit:

Another trend that was visible this week was the rise in energy shares. Oil prices are back over $21 a barrel and natural gas prices are inching their way back towards $3. Climatologists are predicting another El Nino weather pattern this year, which could mean warmer summers and colder winters. This argues favorably for energy. Also a pick up in the economy would also increase demand for energy. Add in the political aspects of a possible military action coming from the US against Iraq, and it all makes energy look more attractive.

Black Blade: Ditto again. And if an economic recovery does take place look for energy costs to skyrocket due to increased demand, decreased exploration and development activity for hydrocarbons, lack of refining capacity, inadequate infrastructure, and bottlenecks everywhere. "Energy Crisis" part 2 coming soon.

sector

(02/22/2002; 22:29:02 MDT - Msg ID: 70640)

The "New Recovery"...With Japan as an Albatross?

@Black BladeDittos on the moribund economy.

The Fed and its acolytes are spinning their made-up data so fast they look like a drunken Olympic skater...triple-lutzing themselves into the judges stand.

The elders of Japan don't buy the BS from Koizumi any more than the American consumer buys it from O'Neill.

NBC ran a particularly acidic comment tonight from an anti-analyst who articulated with great skill the Street's dissembling and self serving conflicts of interest...it has been a long time since such anti-stock talk has been heard on the tube.

Enron and JPMs involvement in these offshore Sumitomo copper fraud type schemes have been known for many years to gold bugs. It's a refreshing moment when we hear the media crying foul. As Dan Rather says "We [the media] got a dog in this fight".

All the bad publicity is hurting investment confidence. After all...how would anyone know if your favorite company won't announce the FBI has just shown up in accounting with a very large bag of Krispy Kreme doughnuts and a very small tape recorder.

Until there is a squeaky clean flushing of the accounting AND derivatives trade, the investor will stay "safe"...just where we want them...as Japan lists ever closer to the financial abyss.

Black Blade

(02/22/2002; 22:39:49 MDT - Msg ID: 70641)

Natural Gas Demand Increases and Oil Prices Rise

http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=TOPST&ARTICLE_ID=136584

Snippit:

The American Gas Association reported the withdrawal of 112 bcf of gas from US underground storage last week, less than had been expected by analysts. That compares with withdrawals of 156 bcf the previous week and 81 bcf during the same period a year ago.

US gas storage levels now exceed 1.9 tcf, "or more than double last year at this juncture, with a year-over-year surplus of 984 bcf," said Robert Morris at Salomon Smith Barney Inc.

With the significant decline in natural gas prices since the beginning of last year, Morris said, "We estimate that about 75% of US ammonia production that was shut in early last year is now back on line."

"Ammonia production was up roughly 70% year-over-year in January, which added roughly 500 MMcfd of incremental natural gas demand compared with last year," he said. "We estimate that incremental domestic ammonia production should provide an estimated 0.3% increase in natural gas demand, on average, in 2002 compared with last year."

Black Blade: As mentioned previously. It also appears that energy prices are set to rise in spite of a stagnant economy. God forbid that this Recession ends soon - as we simply cannot increase hydrocarbon production fast enough. NG drawdown rates are increasing and if this summer is warmer than usual as predicted by the NOAA, then lookout as energy demand rises further. Even if NG production increases, the Grasshoppers do not have sufficient generating capacity.

Waverider

(02/22/2002; 22:56:10 MDT - Msg ID: 70642)

Congratulations Boilermaker and Jlfletc

Lucky AngelsVery well done! Thank You USAGold for having the contest and Thank You Sir Gandolf for your mighty fine work as moderator. It was a lot of fun! Cheers,
Waverider

Black Blade

(02/22/2002; 23:16:58 MDT - Msg ID: 70643)

Baker Hughes-U.S. rig count down 23, Canada down 18

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020222/n22495139_1.html
Snippit:

NEW YORK, Feb 22 (Reuters) - The number of rigs searching for oil and gas in the United States fell by 23 to 792 during the week ending Feb. 22, according to oil services firm Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI). A year ago there were 1121.

The number of rigs exploring for oil and gas in Canada was down 18 this week to 410 compared to 553 last year. The number of rigs in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico was down 11 to 112 compared to 155 a year ago. The number of rigs searching on land was 656, while the number of offshore rigs was 119. There were 17 inland rigs.

The total North American rig count fell by 41 to 1,202, while last year it was 1,674. The number of rigs searching for oil fell by two to 144, while the number of rigs searching for gas fell by 21 to 647. There was one miscellaneous rig, unchanged from last week.

Black Blade: Energy independence (though impossible) is a long way off. What this means is that there is a reduced current hydrocarbon supply. I did a quick and dirty calculation on the NG withdrawal from NG storage. On the low end we will probably come up short of NG in November and on the high end we will use up the excess supply in just over 3 months. Lower NG prices lead to increased demand that eventually leads to lower supply that leads to higher prices, that leads to lower demand, etc. Meanwhile a severe pullback on NG and Oil exploration and development is a setup for the next "Energy Crisis". Expect a big push by the Bush administration for "Energy Independence" as the November elections approach (just about the time that excess NG supply disappears - how's that for emphasis just before the elections?). Chained CPI or not, it will be quite a job to hide increasing inflation even if energy is not in the core rate. I expect that by then Gold and Silver prices will already be pushing much higher.

kludge

(02/23/2002; 01:49:08 MDT - Msg ID: 70644)

Occam's Razor

Why are the gold conspirators maintaining gold at the same relative value that it's held for 2000+ years? Is this part of the logic of their plan? After all, no one would suspect anything was "wrong" if nothing had changed, right? How better to hide their manipulation than to keep things just as they have always been.

It may be this status quo that allows them to hide the "deal" with the oil states from the masses (except us of course!). The conspirators must wield some pretty hefty influence to keep all the OPEC nations quiet about the deal for so long. Any idea when the oil states will decide they have enough gold and oil to rule the world and play their cards (since they always stick together with never any dissention)? I'm puzzled why Saddam didn't blow the whistle considering a decade of sanctions, though. The Bush's probably persueded him to keep quiet, their families go way back - just like the Reagans' and the Khaddafis'. Even more puzzling is that Israel is keeping quiet on the oil for gold conspiracy, knowing the power that the Arab/Muslim states will wield in the future. Of course, maybe the conspirators have managed to hide the truth from the Israeli's, which everyone knows have one of the worst intelligence agencies in the world. Or maybe they just bought off Sharon to sell out his people. I wouldn't doubt he sold out, he's been anti-war/pro-Arab his whole life.

So... how many conspirators have been involved in this collusion through the years? 1,000? Certainly more, I would suspect. Incoming and outgoing high ranking Gov't officials around the world, rich private interests, royal families, bullion bank CEO's/COO's and some traders, and probably a close circle of some friends and family. Certainly some in military intelligence are aware also, as lowly enlisteds around the world collect and decrypt COMINT and SIGINT from foreign countries - particularly foreign gov't communications. How are they able to keep this quiet with so many people "in on the secret" do you suppose? I guess it's easy to explain, who would risk their life just to get rich? Probably never happen. I guess none of the cablist's are "sleep-talkers" with angry ex-spouses either.
Their timing is also to be admired! Let the gold price fall while the DOW rises (over two decades!), then allow it to bottom and slowly rise as the markets continue to descend over the past year or so. They are making it seem like demand for gold is slowly increasing, as if investors are getting dis-illusioned with the stock market's losses and finally turning to gold in small numbers. Hiding in plain sight, a masterful plan!

How shrewd the minting of bullion coins by the governments too, making physical gold available to any that want it at "Cabal Club" prices, this also allows the masses to have some minor amount of control over physical supply and demand - no doubt that was at the suggestion of the Strategic Psychological Tactics Division of the cabal, "give them what they want, and they won't want it anymore"? Don't laugh, did you think that a team of top-notch psychologists WEREN'T on the cabal payroll? No one even attempts a conspiracy without a set nowadays.

But still, it's apparent that no one here has actually stumbled on the real proof yet, else they likely wouldn't be heard from anymore. In fact, it's conceivable that some of the old-timers here have been "silenced" and replaced by imposters, minions of the cabal, because they got too close to putting it all together. This IS a secret worth a death or two, yes?

By the way, thanks for the replies to my prior post Sir Mr. Gresham and Sir nickel62, if that's who you really are...

I'm surprised our host has been allowed to continue to operate. I would have thought the IRS or the FBI would have forced them out of business by now with malicious, vicious audits, and/or unfounded charges on any number of interstate commerce laws due to their sponsoring of this forum.

It's dizzying when one consider's the complexity of this operation, it crosses borders, philosophies, and religions. It requires the cooperation of age-old adversaries. To me it seems, almost?, unbelievable.

(HEY!?! Just noticed one of my slippers is missing. Could be the dog stole it, could be that aliens abducted it. 50-50 chance either way, right? :-)

++++++++++++OK, playful sarcasm aside now.++++++++++++

Just trying to make the point that perhaps the simplest theory that fits the facts is the correct one (hence the subject line). So here's a simple theory:

The US stock market has traded significantly higher since the 80's, while gold has significantly fallen. This could simply be due to a number of easily reasoned factors; the cold-war ending, 401k's pumping in $$, Reaganomics, then greater fiscal discipline, full employment, tame inflation, Gulf War victory, easy credit, and any of the other good news for investors from the 80's and 90's.

When some FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) does creep in from terrorism, war, bankruptcies, unemployment rising, etc., safe haven plays rise until the FUD factor subsides. In a fast moving market (how many shares traded this week?), people want to be "in the game" and not miss out on the next big bull run. So FUD gives way to greed, then the safe haven is sold and invested in higher-risk, higher-reward securities.

Gold didn't rise much, and it doesn't fall much on the pullouts. It's just slowly eaten away at due to "better" investments that return a huge profit in a rapidly rising securities market that lasts two decades. Why doesn't it spike higher on bad news? Maybe because many have forgotten it's value and move to money market funds or bonds instead, or maybe because the even riskier, greedier people short gold on any price spikes - selling before the "new bears" decide to turn bullish again. Maybe gold never bottomed before because bonds and savings interest rates were still attractive. Maybe a combination of all these. It's not an exciting or complex theory, and it's certainly not original - but it's simple and fits the facts quite nicely I think.

I like gold, I own gold, I am acquiring more gold, and I suggest you do, too (preferably from our host). It PRESERVES YOUR WEALTH across generations. Know how much a pair of Roman Legion Army boots cost in 50 A.D. when bought with the gold coin of the time? About $62 after converting the gold it contained into US$ today. Certainly not what I'd call a good multi-millennia investment.

kludge

PS:Congrats also to Jlfletc and Boilermaker!!! If that's who you really are...

Black Blade

(02/23/2002; 02:34:56 MDT - Msg ID: 70645)

J.P. Morgan Debt Default Insurance More Than Doubles

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APHanYxUXSi5QLiBN
Snippit:

New York, Feb. 22 (Bloomberg) -- J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., the second-largest U.S. bank, has suddenly become a growing risk for bond investors.

The cost of insuring J.P. Morgan Chase's $43 billion of notes and bonds against default more than doubled in the past month. Some investors are concerned the bank holding company's credit rating may be lowered because of $3.8 billion in potential losses related to Enron Corp., Global Crossing Ltd., Kmart Corp. and Argentina that analysts estimate the bank made.

``The exposure they have to some of these risky companies is larger than the market would like to see,'' said Michael Pohly, executive director of credit derivatives for Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co., which matches buyers and sellers for the insurance.

Black Blade: It appears that debt default may be in JP Morgan Chase's future. At least the insurance companies see significant risk in the viability of JPMC. Perhaps that partially explains the drop in share price, not to mention an investigation into "off the books" deals with bankrupt Enron. Maybe JPMC isn't too big to fail.

Black Blade

(02/23/2002; 02:43:11 MDT - Msg ID: 70646)

J.P. Morgan Had Many Ties With Enron

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A55054-2002Feb22.html
Snippit:

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. was deeply involved in Enron Corp.'s finances, simultaneously investing in the company, buying Enron stock for funds it managed and recommending the energy company's stock to investors.

The bank's complex involvement with Enron was not unique. Citigroup, Merrill Lynch & Co., Credit Suisse First Boston Corp.and Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. are among firms that had many-sided relationships with Enron, according to Enron's records and those of the other companies.

Congressional investigators and shareholders' attorneys are examining how big a role those Wall Street bankers may have played in Enron's rise and fall and the impact on investors. On Wednesday, an analyst from J.P. Morgan will join representatives from five other banks before the Senate Government Affairs Committee to answer questions about their ratings of Enron.

J.P. Morgan's Enron investments meant that the bank would benefit if the Houston company's stock price rose. Its purchases of Enron's stock and "strong buy" recommendations boosted share prices. At the time J.P. Morgan analysts recommended Enron stock, other bank officials knew that the energy company had major off-balance-sheet debts. The bank also was a major investor in one of Enron's largest outside partnerships, LJM.

Black Blade: After looking over my tea leaves and turning over some tarot cards, I see many lawsuits in JP Morgan's future. Ditto for Citigroup, Merrill Lynch & Co., Credit Suisse First Boston Corp.and Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. "Oh what a tangled web we weave ��."

Black Blade

(02/23/2002; 03:07:12 MDT - Msg ID: 70647)

Daily Market Summary - Lance Lewis

http://www.dailymarketsummary.net/Today.htm
Snippit:

Oil rose 12 cents. The XOI rose 2 percent, and the OSX rose 2 percent. People are starting to watch Iraq fairly closely again. I'm not so sure a US attack is coming this soon, but it's a pretty good bet that President Bush spent the last few days testing the waters for his plans during his trip to Asia. Gold traded a little higher overnight but took a dive shortly after the New York open. By the close, the "little metal that could" managed to recoup most of its losses to end unchanged on the day. The HUI rose a touch.

Robert Champion de Crespigny, the founder and former chairman of Australia's Normandy Mining, made some comments at the Australian Mining Club last night. Citing low interest rates, volatile gold lease rates, as well as the erratic behavior of central banks, he proclaimed that the days of hedging gold are numbered. De Crespigny said, "I think we are going to see some blood in the streets sometime if people are in the business of being derivative miners." Word to the wise: make sure you know what a miner's hedge book looks like if you're going to buy their stock.

Black Blade: As I have been saying - The day of the hedger is over. It's a bad deal and many are going to go tits up. As De Crespigny said, "I think we are going to see some blood in the streets sometime if people are in the business of being derivative miners." I hear that - three names come to mind right away - Barrick, AngloGold, and Placer Dome.

nickel62

(02/23/2002; 05:59:15 MDT - Msg ID: 70648)

Klude, if that is who you really are.

Thanks for enlightening us with your insight. After thirty years in the investment business and three years reading here, it is good to know there is a simple solution to these things.

nickel62

(02/23/2002; 06:10:23 MDT - Msg ID: 70649)

My mistake!

I guess that should be Kludge not Klude. Sorry, didn't mean to be insulting by spelling your screen name incorrectly. Welcome. You will learn much in life if you listen.

Boilermaker

(02/23/2002; 07:07:50 MDT - Msg ID: 70650)

Andy Jackson on taxes, money & banking

http://www.theamericanpresidency.net/farewellaj.htmAndy Jackson's farewell speech delivered 3/4/1837 puts some historical perspective on the issues we deal with on this forum. Andy was a controversial guy who drove the Cherokees into Oklahoma where they could find "a situation where we may well hope that they will share in the blessings of civilization and be saved from that degradation and destruction to which they were rapidly' hastening while they remained in the States....". He was arguably the first "commoner" to make president having been born into circumstances similar to Lincoln's but who became a wealthy plantation and slave owner.

snippet from farewell speech;

"In reviewing the conflicts which have taken place between different interests in the United States and the policy pursued since the adoption of our present form of Government, we find nothing that has produced such deep-seated evil as the course of legislation in relation to the currency. The Constitution of the United States unquestionably intended to secure to the people a circulating medium of gold and silver. But the establishment of a national bank by Congress, with the privilege of issuing paper money receivable in the payment of the public dues, and the unfortunate course of legislation in the several States upon the same subject, drove from general circulation the constitutional currency and substituted one of paper in its place.

It was not easy for men engaged in the ordinary pursuits of business, whose attention had not been particularly drawn to the subject, to foresee all the consequences of a currency exclusively of paper, and we ought not on that account to be surprised at the facility with which laws were obtained to carry into effect the paper system. Honest and even enlightened men are sometimes misled by the specious and plausible statements of the designing. But experience has now proved the mischiefs and dangers of a paper currency, and it rests with you to determine whether the proper remedy shall be applied. "

Comment;
Andy had it nailed 165 years ago. When will we ever learn.

Cheers and Happy Weekend

Waverider

(02/23/2002; 07:46:11 MDT - Msg ID: 70651)

Banking crisis?

http://www.viewswire.com/index.asp?layout=display_article&doc_id=180300Snippit:
"Is Japan headed for a banking crisis? The roll-back of government- sponsored deposit insurance, and a change in the way some bank assets are valued, could lead to a sharp outflow of funds at end-March, triggering a banking meltdown. Yet the Economist Intelligence Unit believes serious trouble can be averted. The government has the means and the motive to inject enough capital into the banking system to prevent the collapse of any of the major institutions. If a crisis is avoided, however, it will be at considerable cost to taxpayers, and to the reputation of the increasingly unpopular prime minister, Junichiro Koizumi."

The four major banks in Japan are simply "too big to fail".

Waverider: Yes, and so was the Titanic! Cheers.

AU_Poor

(02/23/2002; 07:57:34 MDT - Msg ID: 70652)

msg#: 70644

I see the short-sellers have tired of preaching to the choir on another site. That site deteriorated, last I looked, into an unrecognizable mass of confusion.

This one spends a few pages telling us that gold is a terrible place to put your money, then tells us he's buying it, and recommends Centennial and our host.

@USAGOLD: Is this person buying from you in quantity? If so I withdraw my criticism. If not, let him return to preach to the choir.

nickel62

(02/23/2002; 08:06:03 MDT - Msg ID: 70653)

I agree, thanks for the comment.

I thought he was simply a boor. My mistake.

kludge

(02/23/2002; 09:54:59 MDT - Msg ID: 70654)

(No Subject)

invest - to put (money) in business, real estate, stocks, bonds, etc. for the purpose of obtaining income or profit.

preserve - to keep up; carry on; maintain

So, throughout history, has gold been a good "investment", or has it proved to be the best way of "preserving" wealth?

I didn't think I'd get a HOF nomination for that post, just trying to offer an alternate opinion on why the POG has fallen for so long, why it seems to have bottomed and is now trending up, and why it may go down again once FUD about the economy subsides.

If any look to gold as an investment, it just seems to me you're betting against a 2000 year trend. Sure it's purchasing power has spiked before for short periods, and I think it's beginning to again. Will you trade it for fiat if it does?

In my mind, 2k years of history is hard to refute - if you want to preserve your wealth NO MATTER WHAT MAY HAPPEN, buy gold.

HopeingII

(02/23/2002; 10:21:26 MDT - Msg ID: 70655)

LOOKING FOR HELP

Would someone(s) be so kind as to help me out here.
I am looking for three infamous quotes.

Two from Greenspan.

1) the quote about CB's being ready to supply the market
should the price rise.

2) The one about Gold being the ultimate form of payment,
where he gave the example of the German's only being able to procur supplies with payment in Gold during WW II
I think it was.

3) The Eddie George quote about looking into the Abyss
after the Washington Agreement.

Thanks in advance, Don

Going out now, BBL

sourdough

(02/23/2002; 11:47:42 MDT - Msg ID: 70656)

The loss cost

Has anyone ever come up with the number of U.S. dollars that would be required to get the gold market balanced.
We read ,305,320 etc. will panic the shorts, the hedgers, etc.
I see numbers for JP MORGAN derivitives.
I see mention of a rising gold price creating an abyss.
If central banks do not call in gold loans, but renew them into the future, perhaps at a higher lease rate, this buys time for the borrowers, such as J.P. MORGAN.
If Barrick will receive 365, they will still mine at a profit on those sales. They will sell the rest at spot for much higher prices.
How much money is it going to cost to get even?
Will they get even by 600?
If they are square at 600 and continue to go long, knowing in advance (cabal)gold will rise to 1000 or 2000. How much will they really lose?
How much will it cost to get even?
How much will they make going long?
Can they not still come out on top?
If the gold price cannot be held down, preparations "must" be underway to make profits on golds` rising price.
Investments in mining stocks, south african currency positions, etc.
It is also my thinking that the "cabal", knows gold has to go up, they cannot stop it from going up.Once this is accepted, they would focus on how to achieve the greatest benefit from an exploding gold price.�

escapethematrix

(02/23/2002; 11:52:59 MDT - Msg ID: 70657)

The Smoke and Mirror economy

From Lemetropole Cafe
The following snippets are taken from an excellent 3 piece article from The "Short Sellers" Nightmare by a Mr.
Thomas Q. Nichols. It gives great insight into what is going on today....Some of it will sound very familiar to we "Hikers of the Trail" .....Enjoy, and a good weekend to all.

Snip:

The title of this treatise bears special significance to the fore knowledge of those in Washington. A "short-seller" is of course a party who chooses to sell a futures contract in anticipation that the price of the underlying commodity will decrease. How many traders are aware of the Statutory provisions in the United States Code that, in certain conditions, the Government can raise commodity prices virtually overnight, requiring traders to pay, as in the case of some grains, a margin call of $29,000 per contract. These are not SEC regulations that can be manipulated, but rather Federal Statutes that can only be addressed by Congress. The Statute is not improper; the system that masks reality and requires the Statute is the problem.

The GATA, Gold Anti-Trust Action group, and their loyal army have done the most work in bringing these revelations to the light of day. Yet the public still does not see the picture, or more pointedly, the establishment media does not want to pursue these facts and make them front page headlines. The gold army is 'at the door' of exposing the largest quagmire to ever hit the banking industry. We say quagmire because their practices and methods are calculated and deliberately orchestrated to enslave humanity for global objectives.

In retrospect, the Raw Material Council's research surrounding the events of 1929 revealed that the depression of 1929 was attributed to the Stock Market Crash, but that was the finale of the show, not the opening act. The opening act was a reduction in raw material prices, starting in 1925 and culminating in 1929. The reduction in raw material prices can be attributed to our financier's desertion of "People's Capitalism" in search of what they thought were higher profits in other lands.

Doesn't NAFA, WTO, fast-tract trade authority and free trade all sound like failed experiments we tried before? It appears our national leaders are implementing trading procedures identical to those of the 1920's, and the results will be much more severe.

When we look at money as a "medium of exchange" we get a clearer picture of the past, present and future. Recently Alan Greenspan was touting the strength of the dollar versus the Euro and Europeans and made similar characterizations about their medium of exchange in relation to ours. The representations are misplaced. The two Continents could just as well have been exclaiming the supremacy of the Fahrenheit temperature scale versus the Centigrade scale and vice versa. Just because the temperature reading, as measured by the respective scales, goes up or down, it does not mean the measuring device is nearing destruction, but rather, the "environment" upon which the readings are taken is changing

Unfortunately, institutional arrangements-- trading houses, banks, government itself-- have been used not to assure par exchange, but to enhance predatory business profits, and, in the case of government, social programs are implemented to keep the worst effects of predatory profits from showing. That is why we have institutionalized poverty, low cost housing, relief checks, Medicare/Medicaid, food stamps, and government as the employer of last resort." (From "Parity, the Key to Prosperity Unlimited", by Charles Walters Jr.)

Typically when producers complain of low commodity prices they are met with the deafening excuses of "supply and demand". The gold and silver bulls have proven beyond doubt that demand for these two metals has outpaced supply for at least a decade, and yet gold and silver prices do not rise. The GATA group has proven that the reason for this anomaly is price manipulation made possible with "paper" gold and silver. When true supply and demand forces attempt to take prices higher, the cartel steps in to sell "paper" gold and silver to depress the price. The cartel has had a good teacher because the same operation has been working magnificently for the grain trade for 40 years. In the agricultural sector, grain traders sell "paper

Bretton Woods was scrapped in 1971 because those foreigners who understood our mischievous economic policies would have eliminated our gold reserves. (Foreigners could trade their commodities for undervalued, in terms of US dollars, gold). Conversely, the market price of wheat decreased in price by about 10 cents per bushel over those same 26 years. The economic conditions of the early 1970's are very similar to today, except today's distortions are significantly and dynamically greater.

Those of us who remember the Energy Czars under the Administrations of the 1970's, and their gas rationing and allocation programs, certainly have a healthy sense of apprehension and skepticism for today's Office of Homeland Security. Today the world stage is set for exactly these types of events to re-occur, only on a proportionately much larger scale.

The gold cartel is artificially holding down the price of gold and inflating the currency at the same time. The inflation has not shown up (yet) because we export it, by purchasing cheap foreign manufactured goods and sending our dollars overseas. Those goods compete with domestically manufactured and produced goods, forcing American manufacturers to lower their prices until bankruptcy. This manufactured appearance of low inflation rates and stability invite foreign currency flows (our dollars returning home) into our Bond and Stock Markets, and while public attention is focused on the Wall Street circus, the Nation is being looted. There is a "head of steam" building behind the price of gold valued in U.S. dollars because these manipulators have distorted economies and monetary systems on such a clandestine scale. World wide, these globalistic policies have uprooted social and political establishments and their pleas for help fall on deaf ears, or worse, they are given more of the same poison. While we watch from afar as Argentina introduces a new currency, our thoughts should turn to our 30 trillion dollar debts and ask ourselves: How far away from a new currency are we? The gold cartel has their sights set much higher than simply the gold and silver markets.

sourdough

(02/23/2002; 12:17:28 MDT - Msg ID: 70658)

cost of loss

continued
I would recommend they use the coming gold price explosion to try and create spending wealth in the hands of the Japanese consumer. Japan is the biggest economic problem facing the world. The problem is people have money but are scared to spend it. If they could be enticed to spend, the economy would get back on its feet. Profits will be made if your derivatives are bet on a domestic economic recovery.
Convince the Japanese people to purchase gold, force their savings out of the banks,make your government stumble, appear confused, "appear" to be doing nothing, while all the time directing the consumer to gold.
The rest of the world is kept confused, with threats of cental bank sales, etc. Fine tune the yen/u.s. dollar/euro/ and gold to the price most acceptable to get the Japanese to buy. The rest of the Asian business press is not recommending gold, why?, Japan is the target.

The world economy is one big entity. The Japanese subsidiary is in trouble. The board has decided to use gold to get Japan profitable again.
Japan cannot re arm and make war to fix their economy. That is why it cannot snap back. Military spending cannot be used as in u.s.
If you as a consumer/investor buy a 1 kg bar of gold at 300 an ounce, which then rises to a value of 1000 an ounce, are you not going to spend some of your other savings?
Consumer led recovery!
Place your bets on gold and a Japanese recovery.
The right derivitives and these same people who(may) would lose on gold will win on the effect of a Japanese gold engineered recovery. So long yen?, short dollar?

Trapper

(02/23/2002; 12:23:34 MDT - Msg ID: 70659)

Sir Kludge

Part of what you say is correct, the hiding in plain sight for sure. In the exact letter there is no conspiracy. Did anyone conspire to violate the US Constitution depriving us of a gold and silver money? No they just ignored it. Did Greenspin hide the fact that there would be plenty of gold to all who wish to short it? No he told us in public. Did Clinton after losing in congress for funds to bail out Mexico go ahead and bail them out anyway? Yes he just used the ES Fund to get the money. Conspiracy not by definition, legal not sure buy GATA might find out. As to the goverment minting gold for us to have, I'm not so sure. One of the things discussed often here is if they just let us use the gold until they want it back and presto, another goverment decree and you must turn it back in. All of this, and more is right out there for us find if we look. We (govt and the shadow govt) are your leaders we do as we wish we don't care about the laws or that damn constitution of yours set down shut up. Live small.
RJ

nickel62

(02/23/2002; 13:49:50 MDT - Msg ID: 70660)

Sir Kludge,

I am so glad you showed up. We most likly haven't had the benefit of your profound insights these last few years and needed such a compelling analysis to enlighten us all. Thanks

A Canadian

(02/23/2002; 14:32:29 MDT - Msg ID: 70661)

@ KLUDGE

All "Investment" vehicles be it stock, land or GOLD are subject to ups and downs ; all sorts of trends + situations dictating eventual outcomes.
What separates the winners from losers is TIMING; dictating profit or loss, negative or positive income.
It is illogical to speak of a 2000 year trend (which would result in 0 or 1,000,000 per ounce , take your pick.)
If one has done their economic homework (as opposed to picking ponies from the sportspage) it is a no brainer to determine what the CURRENT TIMING is and where the chips must be laid.
The store of wealth pill is very difficult to swallow. The best way to explain is by answering your question: NO I WILL NOT TRADE IT FOR FIAT (only a fool relinquishes his wealth).

barnacle bill

(02/23/2002; 14:55:28 MDT - Msg ID: 70662)

HopeingII Msg#70655

Greenspan quotesIn addition to the 2 quotes you are looking for; there is another one I am looking for. That is when, during Congressional testimony, Greenspan could not define what a dollar is. The exchange went something like:
Questioner- So it is difficult to manage something you can not define?
Greenspan- It is impossible to manage something you can not define.
The discussion dealt with the dollar. If you stumble across it, please post.

slingshot

(02/23/2002; 14:56:51 MDT - Msg ID: 70663)

Greenspans Miscalculation

Selling of the GoldLooking back at all that has happen to gold, It is my opinion that Greenspan and the CB's fatally miscalculated the assumption that Gold was dead. In order for their perpetration of the fiat money they had to pronounce gold dead, verbaly or physcologicly. Their dumping of gold on the market did indeed surpress the price of gold and making it appear gold was a poor investment/insurance only to be met headon by scores of battle hardened goldbugs and the new goldbug who remembers the spike of $850.00. Are they now just minting bullion coins assuming that if they are available to the general public, that the public will not buy them? If that was their intention, they are truly in big trouble. I see gold being brought. The same goes for silver. Should there be a undercurrent of gold moving into private hands, I hope the bankers can not see it. When gold finnally is set free may this undercurrent of gold purchasing hit them in the head like a sucker punch. The bankers are now the frog in the pail of water and each time we buy an ounce we turn the heat up a little more till we cook them. Frog legs anyone? When are they going to sell some more and bring the price of gold down again? THis German banker did me a favor.

Fe Fi Fo Thumb
I smell banker gold,and I want some. (MORE)
Slingshot

A Canadian

(02/23/2002; 15:10:00 MDT - Msg ID: 70664)

@ KLUDGE

Should have read both your posts..... ROMAN ARMY BOOTS? what the?....GOLD IS THE ONLY &*^%ING THING THAT SURVIVED THE LAST 2000 yrs!!!!!
Did you buy land in Italy 2000 yrs ago? sorry about the invaders; you no longer have title. How about a nice little franchise? Swords are Us ? Sorry , no longer in business. Termites ate the chariot, slaves died of STD's', livestock was eaten during drought, Thank GOD your father had the foresight to accumulate some physical because that, my friend, STILL HAS VALUE!

goldquest

(02/23/2002; 16:05:38 MDT - Msg ID: 70665)

@barnacle bill and HopeingII

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/default.htmGreenspan speeches and quotes can be found at this link.

goldquest

(02/23/2002; 16:14:47 MDT - Msg ID: 70666)

Another Link

http://www.the-privateer.com/greespan.htmlto help you save time.

goldquest

(02/23/2002; 16:18:00 MDT - Msg ID: 70667)

Sorry!

http://www.the-privateer.com/greenspan.htmlTry this one.

TownCrier

(02/23/2002; 16:20:38 MDT - Msg ID: 70668)

Photographer Kochaniec back behind the lens.

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Jensen/20020218.html"To win a Pulitzer Prize, traditionally one must elevate his or her journalism to a level where the work might alter people's perceptions to such an extent that the way is paved for change. When we ran the first installment of Holger Jensen's MidEast series, we were criticized in private e-mails by those supporting the Palestinians. Later when the second and third segments appeared, we were likewise criticized by those supporting the Israeli position. The strong reactions from both sides tell me that Mr. Jensen is doing his job. Personally I believe that this is the kind of material both in the written word and the photography that comprises prize-winning journalism.

"It is not our function to present a solution to the Middle East problem -- and I doubt that Mr. Jensen harbors any illusions on that scale either. At the same time, I do not think I would be stepping out on the limb to say that he hopes, as we do, that the presentation of this information -- a glimpse at the human drama involved -- might provide the impetus for a solution. This is something the world should see. If you think my reaction a little stronger than it needs to be I invite you to take a look at the faces of the children in the photo accompanying the main article. The remainder of the article and supporting photography are equally compelling." --MK

---
And of course, the economic relevance of all this is found in the nature of our global economy -- like the ripples from a pebble cast into still waters, disturbances half-a-world-away can impact you and your financial security, too.

Max Rabbitz

(02/23/2002; 17:48:14 MDT - Msg ID: 70669)

Sir Kludge and the True Gold Value

http://www.ancientcoinmarket.com/ds/worth/1.htmlA gold aureus of Marcus Aurelius (remember the movie Gladiator) was worth 25 silver denari and about one months pay of a Roman Legionary soldier. A gold aureus was about a quarter an ounce of gold. At this valuation how long would the current gold price pay a modern soldier?

The argument over the historical value of gold misses the point. I am reminded of the remark make by Catherine Austin Fitts to a statement made from the audience during the question period of the recent GATA Washington Conference (C-span). The person claimed the price of gold could not be manipulated because the price had not gone up relative to the 1950's when it was $35 an ounce, and inflation is such as such since then. I thought it obvious the gold price was controlled (set) by the U.S. Treasury in the 1950's. But Ms. Fitts didn't want to spend time to argue these points. She in essence said it's pointless to argue the real value of gold when the only way to know is to have a free market.

GATA has shown the market is rigged. Allen Greenspan himself has said so. Surely even Sir Occam and his razor would have caught on by now!

Best Wishes and read the GATA findings.
Max

Trapper

(02/23/2002; 19:23:40 MDT - Msg ID: 70670)

Gold confiscation

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/smithf022502.htmlThis is a good link as it provides the law use to call in all the gold from the people. I have somewhat of a problem as to claims that pre 1933 gold will be exempt. Just what gold coins were to be turned in if the call to do so was in 1933? Perhaps ALL PRE 1933 Coins! In 1933 there were no 1934 coins ( or '86, '99 '02 etc.)to turn in. The only coins that were called in were pre'33 coins. So here is my question can anyone from Canada tell me if you had the same call of gold. Next can a US citizen get a bank box in Canada? Folks these bankers and politicos are not fools, they have way more info on the collapse that we do.Anyone belive we are the only ones who know about JPM positions. The same as last time('29-'33). Why is Buffet's silver out of the US? Any ideas on protecting our gold will be recieved with gratitude. I still say we need a pre-emptive law asserting our rights to gold and silver. Live small.
RJ

Canuck

(02/23/2002; 19:47:26 MDT - Msg ID: 70671)

Snip of an article I sent to sister

"If you think the world will solve wars, energy depletion, health issues, corrupt politics, malignant accounting, horrific demographics statistics, crooked government, bought financial institutions, political instability and massively indebted countries SIMULTANEOUSLY on or before the year 2006, then don't buy gold."

USAGOLD

(02/23/2002; 20:14:23 MDT - Msg ID: 70672)

Trapper. . .

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/hoppe.htmlYou raise some interesting questions. Let me try to get you on the right track.

1. Gold ownership in the United States is a privilege not a right as Rep. Ron Paul has asserted the result of his own experience in trying to get gold-owner favorable legislation through the Congress. No matter what you think is right, or what you think is moral, ethical or legal, that is the reality that we must deal with. What you do politically to alter that is your business, but where the rubber meets the road is how you design your gold portfolio in the first place to maximize your ability to hold on to the gold you purchase.

2. The concept of ownership of pre-1933 gold coins as the safest form of gold ownership with respect to the current law is borne of much legal research and legal precedent, but it is not a guarantee that you will be able to keep your gold if you own it in this form. However, it offers the best odds that you will be able to retain your gold in the event of a call-in. From 1933 when gold was criminalized and 1975 when it was re-legalized, gold owners could own and trade in pre-1933 gold coins like there was never a confiscation in the first place. You just had to know and understand this loophole in the law. I encourage you to go to the link above and request "You Can Survive a Potential Gold Confiscation." All the reasoning is there in detail along with the legal precedent (as Appendices) required for you to understand why moving in this direction may be your saving grace. This is not a casual report the basis of which we pulled out of thin air. It is built on the work of intellectuals and gold advocates who have gone before us and laid some very important foundational work -- including Donald Hoppe and H.M. Holzer, Ayn Rand's attorney.

3. The Treasury Department will not come to your door knock on it and demand your gold. They will simply make it illegal to trade in it and that's all they need to do. When Roosevelt put the kabosh on gold, all he was concerned about was bullion because he feared huge stores of money leaving the imploding banking system for gold. (Consider how the Argentinian government reacted similarly in their recent financial meltdown). The U.S. government let the pre-1933 coins go because they did not pose a threat to the currency controls the Roosevelt administration was imposing. These are serious considerations that every gold owner need understand.

4. You do not have to pay exorbitant premiums to get into this kind of material. Some think you have to buy exotic coins with a Grand Canyon between the metal value and what you pay. That simply is not true and we can guide through this aspect of the process. Please call George Cooper or Marie Ballard who are well versed in these matters.

5. As for Canadian, British and European laws at the time, we do not know at this time, but we are hoping at some point in time gaining some knowledge in that respect as our clientele grows in those countries. I believe that the Nazi government in Germany confiscated gold, but I don't know the details, just the Hitler quote that "anyone who deals in gold should be marched off to the camps" or some such nonsense. Let me just say this: For the premium you would now pay for pre-1933 gold coins at a time when the gold price is artificially maintained at historically low levels, it is a small price to pay for the peace of mind. When gold moves as most of us think it will, that premium will be obliterated and you will be glad you've done everything you can to protect your holdings. Believe it!

There is much more I could say on this account, but I'll leave at this for now. The ill-founded and unfair ties that the U.S. State Department recently made between gold and terrorism were a warning shot across the bow for some. It reminded us all how easy it would be for an unscrupulous government to mount an attack on gold based upon erroneous presumptions. Their real goal would be to limit its dissemination among the population. These are important discussions now being entered into at this forum. I only hope to provide some foundational thinking. Be disciplined, my friends. Consider your alternatives as best case scenarios not absolutes. There are no real guarantees as most of you understand. One just does the best they can under the circumstances and hopes for the best. Pre-1933 world gold coins fit those criteria. I don't speak about this often publicly. This is the sort of thing I share with our clientele normally in private. My best to you, Trapper. I understand your concerns.

John Doe

(02/23/2002; 20:45:27 MDT - Msg ID: 70673)

@Kludge

"Why are the gold conspirators maintaining gold at the same relative value that it's held for 2000+ years? Is this part of the logic of their plan? After all, no one would suspect anything was "wrong" if nothing had changed, right? How better to hide their manipulation than to keep things just as they have always been."

Hi Kludge. One is perhaps best served by viewing on-going monetary processes in future terms. The game is exactly that, to keep things "just as they have always been", specifically in order to first deny and then delay what "things are going to be."

An intelligent person may well ask, how can one tell the difference between the absence of manipulation and a manipulation that does a thorough job in appearing not to exist? The short answer is monetary history provides the basis for an automatic assumption of eventual manipulation for this class of monetary regime. The longer answer is, seek and you shall find. There are more than a few interesting clues about that are characteristic of past preludes to devaluation.

(02/23/2002; 22:46:18 MDT - Msg ID: 70674)

barnacle bill re: Greenspan quote

http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary9.htmlResponding to a question by Congressman Ron Paul (Rep., Tex.), Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan spoke to the subject of the nation's money in his Humphrey-Hawkins testimony on February 17, 2000:

By definition, all prices are indeed the "ratio of an exchange of a good for money." And what we seek is what that is. Our problem is we used M-1 at one point as the proxy of money, and it turned out to be a very difficult indicator of any financial state. We then went to M-2 and had the similar problem. We have never done M-3 per se because it largely reflects the extent of expansion of the banking industry. And when in effect banks expand, in and of itself, it doesn't tell you terribly much about what real money is.

So our problem is not that we do not believe in sound money. We do. We very much believe that, if you have a debased currency, that you will have a debased economy. The difficulty is in defining what part of our liquidity structure is truly money. We have had trouble ferreting out proxies for that for a number of years. And the standard we employed is whether it gives us a good forward indicator of the direction of finance and the economy.

Regrettably, none of those which we have been able to develop, including MZM -- has done that. That does not mean that we think that money is irrelevant. It means we think our measures of money have been inadequate. And, as a consequence of that, we, as I have mentioned previously, have downgraded the use of the monetary aggregates for monetary policy purposes, until we are able to find a more stable proxy for what we believe is the underlying money in the economy.

Question by Dr. Paul: "So it's hard to manage something you can't define?"

Answer by Mr. Greenspan: "It is not possible to manage something you can't define."

Mr Gresham

(02/24/2002; 01:31:01 MDT - Msg ID: 70675)

Bulldozers

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Jensen/20020218.htmlI was in Israel, in 1978, riding a bus along the Jordan River valley. I saw a bulldozer knocking down a stone or adobe type house near the road. I hadn't remembered it until now.

I am amazed at the patience of people who tolerate things we would be in instant uprising about. Or think we would be. Perhaps they know, and need know, only that there is a gun at their head, and they calculate their reponse differently than we think we would. They measure their time differently.

Two different worlds. Two different worlds. Soon to meet? Soon to meet?

barnacle bill

(02/24/2002; 07:37:55 MDT - Msg ID: 70676)

Greenspan Quotes

JI Thanks for the posting. I've been a lurker here for several years. I would like to thank all of the posters on this forum for their dilligent work. I do not have the time nor the expertise to throughly check out any of the numerous lies, truths, and half-truths we people are innundated with daily.
This forum and similar forums are beacons of light in a darkening world. I salute you!

sector

(02/24/2002; 09:33:32 MDT - Msg ID: 70677)

Japan Banking Reform?...When Snow Monkeys Fly

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3ECHBT2YC&live=true&tagid=IXLI0L9Z1BC
Daiei aid plan prompts Japanese reform doubts
By Michiyo Nakamoto in Tokyo
Published: February 24 2002 11:57 | Last Updated: February 24 2002 12:47

The Japanese government's commitment to reform came under renewed question over the weekend after it was revealed that the authorities had pressured banks to step up their financial assistance to Daiei, the troubled retailer.

The Financial Services Agency is understood to have asked Daiei's leading banks, UFJ, Sumitomo Mitsui and Fuji Bank, to top up their financial assistance to the retailer in order to help it expand its restructuring programme and convince the markets it is on the road to recovery.

Under a restructuring programme which was to be finalised by the end of the month, when Daiei closes its books, UFJ, SMBC and Fuji Bank were expected to provide Daiei with �420bn ($3.1bn) in financial assistance in the form of a debt waiver and a debt for equity swap. The precise details of the assistance are still being hammered out.

However, concerns that the financial assistance being offered would not be sufficient to put Daiei back up on its feet have remained a severe drag on the retailer's share price, which has languished precariously close to the psychologically important �100 level, at Y118 on Friday.

Daiei's restructuring programme has also been criticised as insufficient to address its problems.

Several political leaders who fear that if Daiei should collapse it would trigger a financial crisis, are also understood to have pressured the financial authorities to do everything they can to prevent such an outcome.

The latest development throws further doubt on the Japanese leadership's commitment to the kind of market-led reforms Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has pledged to support.

That commitment was already under question when government officials intervened in the rescue of Snow Brand Milk, a milk and dairy products group that has been hit by a series of scandals.

In a further sign that Japanese banks are preparing to support ailing companies, UFJ, Dai-ichi Kangyo Bank, part of the Mizuho financial group, and Asahi Bank, are expected to waive about Y300bn in debts to Daikyo, a leading condominium developer.

The latest rescue plans by the banks come as they have faced stepped-up pressure to deal more aggressively with their non-performing loans.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

In light of the above article, there is a zero probability of Japanese banking "reform", therefore there is a 100% probability of yet another big sovereign debt downgrade from the Enron chastened US Moody's & S&P rating agencies...leading to greater risk of a systemic bank failure...leading to a massive transfer of Japanese savings into yellow metal.

A 1.7% shift of savings funds at risk in Japan into gold yields 1,000 tonnes...more than the official WGC quarterly demand for ALL reporting nations combined [880 tonnes].

Spartacus

(02/24/2002; 10:09:36 MDT - Msg ID: 70678)

Dishonest Money

http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=897&FS=Dishonest+MoneyDishonest Money by Sean Corrigan :

Rather than holding that "the love of money is the root of all evil," we should all fervently avow that "the existence of dishonest money is the root of all evil."
-------
This scam seems to work as follows:

I run a small hotel in a mountain resort, as do you, my neighbor. Business has been bad this year since the recession hit our overseas clients, what with their accounting worries and all, so we both have lots of unbooked rooms and little prospect of a passing tour party to occupy them.

Then I have a bright idea: I will rent the ten spare rooms you have, for the next ten years, if you will return the favor to me. Moreover, I will recognize nine-tenths of the value of my multiyear "sale" to you now, but offset it with only one year's worth of costs. You will do likewise.

No cash will change hands, but you and I will have substantially increased both sales and profits, using these so-called "hollow" swaps

What's more, when next we meet in the local chamber of commerce, we will both be able to boast to our local bank manager how life in the hotel business has never been so good!
-----------
Moreover, look at the international situation, where after five years of whitening the graves--or papering over the cracks, if you prefer--the dysfunctional nature of the system has been brought home, even to the gates of Rome itself, amid rising unemployment, record bankruptcies, surging defaults and delinquencies, and falling output.

Testimony to this breakdown is the fact that the IMF, at a rough reckoning, is currently involved in the extra-constitutional direction of around one-third of the world's polities and is imposing its failed and destructive mix of "Black Ship" interventionism on them all.

It is thus employing dishonest money to impoverish the nascent middle classes and subsume national sovereignty around the globe, with a twofold aim.

The first aim is to bail out failed (dishonest money) credit expansions, to the ultimate benefit of the predatory lenders who instigate them and who are then rewarded by achieving higher returns on IMF-restructured, "socialized" debt, while having the debt service itself underwritten by taxpayers both at home and abroad.

The second aim is to impose economic colonization by carpetbagging industrial capital in the form of phony privatizations, held in devalued currencies. Further, it enforces what is laughingly called a market "liberalization," but which, in essence, means an osmosis under duress whereby Western goods and credit cannot be barred admission due to IMF loan "conditionalities," but where the return flow of goods has to surmount hefty tariff barriers, which in turn make the debt service less supportable and so promote a spiral into poverty.
--------------
None of this IMF-supervised harm would ever take place if money were not dishonest--if it were not able to be conjured into existence by the central bank's willingness to foster the creation of what passes for "money" in this world by the mere granting of an electronic book entry at a fractional-reserve, fiat-currency, lending bank.

If tomorrow we foreswore this dishonest money, and we irrevocably fixed its quantity and form, we would make sure that the title to it had to be earned by fruitfully contributing labor, and thus we would forestall much prejudicial misalignment of ends and productive means.

We would we be able to separate the cornucopia that flows from free enterprise and private endeavor from the subtle toxins of the financial freebooters who use these honorable activities as a vector for the transmission of their pathogens.

We would be able to differentiate clearly between classical Manchester liberalism--of hard money and individual sovereignty--and modern IMF-imposed "neo-liberalism," which brings the corruption of value and, eventually, of morality, and which leads on from the inflationary exploitation to excess, waste, despair, and disaffection.

If capital were once more not an ephemeral demand liability from the banks, but a true, preservable token of that productive labor which was spared prior consumptive recompense, it would be the more closely guarded and better applied for the fact that it was scarcer and more hard-won. Economic growth--especially that measured by mere spending--might be slower, but it would be more steady, more equitable, and more sustainable as a result.
--------
Thus, violent fundamentalism--whether from the Middle East or the Upper East Side, whether from collectivist Maoist guerillas or collectivist Monroe doctrine globalizers, whether from rogue states or a rogue State Department, whether from Medellin drug traffickers of meddling energy traders--would not be able to seed itself where its vicious thorns and fast-growing shoots could choke our liberties.

Now do you see why the elite hates Gold with such a passion?

Chris Powell

(02/24/2002; 11:00:38 MDT - Msg ID: 70679)

Italian financial paper's interview with GATA

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1022English translation of the interview with GATA
published by the Italian financial newspaper,
Borsa & Finanza:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1022

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

kludge

(02/24/2002; 12:38:49 MDT - Msg ID: 70680)

(No Subject)

I first wish to apologize for my insensitive remarks yesterday on a belief that many or all here hold dear. However I have (as I'm sure you have, too) chanced upon many conspiracy theories to not be skeptical. Particularly when it's magnitude is so broad that it encompasses the world and requires the cooperation of many nations and individuals with different, and sometimes competing, philosophies. And I hope you'd admit that this one (FOA's/TG's) has many similarities to others on the Internet. Namely:
1. That it has the requisite Conspirators (gov't), the Investigators (us), and the Dupes (the unknowing masses).
2. Evidence that doesn't fit seem to fit the conspiracy is disregarded as having been falsified by the Conspirators.
3. It includes a wider truth.
4. Feedback loops that allow and encourage it to expand.
5. It's a grand conspiracy, requiring the cooperation of thousands, yet is able to remain a secret except to the Investigators.

Is there no possibility that, mainly due to supply and demand, nobody wanted gold when the stock market was a better investment - so it's price fell? And that, since the market has been declining, gold is seen as a safe haven and the price climbs? Overlay charts of the Dow and gold for the last few years.

I come here with an open mind, just offering a simpler theory that seems to fit the facts - but prepared to learn the truth. If three (or one host :) wish to say "go away", I will.

Sir Canadian,
Hope you know I was assuming one "invested" in gold in Ancient Rome, not boots - although that did give me a chuckle. Just showing the prices are comparable, if a Roman put away enough gold in 240 A.D. (the prior 50 A.D. was incorrect - didn't check my notes) to buy a pair of boots at the (then) current price, then brought that gold forward to 2002, sold the gold for fiat, then went to the store to buy some boots - then he can still buy a pair of boots. It's value (the gold, not the boots) was preserved.

I don't believe I understand your statement of:

"It is illogical to speak of a 2000 year trend (which would result in 0 or 1,000,000 per ounce , take your pick.)"

Can you explain further? If it helps, in my modest research I find a reference to the cost of an item at a point in history, say wheat. Then I find the amount of gold in the coin of the time used to purchase it. Then based on the spot price of gold today, I convert this to US dollars, and finally compare it back to the price of wheat today.

In one example I found a bushel of wheat (60 lbs) in ancient Rome would cost about $11 US (when spot gold was $280). I believe this is about par with the consumer price of wheat today (I checked a feed store to find the price of wheat at near this quantity).

Perhaps this method is a seriously flawed in some manner, I honestly do not know. If anyone has a better method of determining the value of gold across time and currencies I would be interested to know.

Sir AU_Poor,
I think you may have misinterpreted my post, I advocate purchasing and holding gold.

From our hosts:
"The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification through private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers..."

Webster's dictionary:
protect - to shield from injury, danger, or loss; guard; defend

I'm attempting to prove that gold has protected or preserved wealth across the ages, not increased it. Is this not a proper forum for my views?

Sir nickel62,
As I never use sarcasm to make a point..., I take your welcoming me at face value and thank you. How does that famous Rodney King quote go again? ;)

Sir Max Rabbitz,
I am not a historian, so here are some of the links I used in doing my research on the subject of the value of gold in ancient Rome:
http://www.roman-britain.org/coinage.htm
http://mywebpages.icomcast.net/fstore/dsmith/mywebpages/worth.html
http://www.roman-empire.net/army/army.html
http://www.tulane.edu/~august/H303/currency/Diocletian.htm
http://home.nyc.rr.com/deadromans/coins/
http://aicoins.tripod.com/aia/id1.html
http://aicoins.tripod.com/aia/id11.html
http://www.anneanddawsonlewis.com/Dawson/C/RM/Denominations.htm

It's my understanding that a Roman soldier also received an allotment for a portion of his food, some bonuses (which would often exceed his salary), and received a grant of land upon discharge (6-16 years of service). But that said, I'm not sure comparing ancient to modern salaries is valid method to determine the value of gold. I'm looking at "purchasing power" or "value" of gold across time, not the value of a day's work across time.

If I understand your point correctly, we cannot know gold's value today because it's price has been manipulated. This is why I tried to start from ancient history and move forward in time to find when a discrepancy began. Had I found that, (example only) 1 oz of gold bought a ton of wheat in ancient Rome, and only a 1/2 ton today - then it furthers the case that the POG is being manipulated, right?

I have NOT found this discrepancy, will you or others help me to find it? I ask this in nearly every post I make, yet
no one offers any references to prove that gold buys less today - or proof why it should have deviated from it's historic value and buy more today.

Instead of starting from the assumption that the POG is manipulated and, because of this, it's "true" value can not be known. Why not start from a time when it's value was known, and see how it compares to it's value today?

Sir John Doe,
I have pondered your statements yet am still not sure I understand. I am not even sure where my research should begin. To what "class of monetary regime" do you refer to so that I may find enough examples to join you in making automatic assumptions? Can you clarify please? You seem to agree that gold held a near constant value for a very long time, but at some point in the recent past it needed to be manipulated to remain at this value. Is this from FOA's theory that gold has been secretly re-valued through a global conspiracy?

Black Blade

(02/24/2002; 14:20:14 MDT - Msg ID: 70681)

Who's Minding Derivatives?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A49526-2002Feb21.html
After Enron, the Debate Over Regulation Gets Sharper

Snippit:

It's a market that's fast growing, worth trillions of dollars and credited with keeping the economy rolling. It's also a tangle of largely unregulated financial contracts that have played a role in at least five major financial scandals in the last eight years, including that of Enron Corp.

Could the current hand-wringing in Congress finally prompt oversight of this extremely valuable, highly volatile web of financial agreements known as the over-the-counter derivatives market? Thomas J. Erickson, commissioner of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, says he's not overly optimistic. Since being appointed commissioner in June 1999 by then-President Clinton, Erickson's has been one of the few voices in Washington calling for greater federal oversight of these derivatives.

Black Blade: Regulatory oversight of derivatives trading? I seriously doubt it - the foxes are guarding this chicken coop. The CFTC and SEC are nothing more than lap dogs for the comodities and financial derivatives trading industry. I see no significant oversight legislation ever being introduced much less ever enforced.

Black Blade

(02/24/2002; 14:45:16 MDT - Msg ID: 70682)

Calling the gold price

http://m1.mny.co.za/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256B65006EDA47?OpenDocument
Snippit:

Peering deep into the future using the past, Murenbeeld wrote: "Gold is under valued on a purchasing power parity basis (and against financial assets), mine output is set to decline, central banks have put limits on their gold sales, the gold industry will market gold products more aggressively, and the Chinese gold market will be de-regulated."

After applying a combination of deflators, Murenbeeld estimates that gold should have averaged $351 an ounce in 2000 instead of the $279 an ounce it did. This illustrates perfectly the deflation trap that has bedeviled producers and counties pegged to the dollar. Their costs rise, but they receive progressively less for their output.

Just as gold overshot in 1980 as a delayed reaction to the establishment of floating currencies, so it has undershot coming the other way. Bullion now appears grossly undervalued, hence the turmoil affecting the price of gold which is straining against a leash. Doubtless, an "over-recovery" is inevitable, but hopefully the unusually long cycles and extreme swings will moderate leaving the price to track the indices of the numeraire.

Black Blade: There's virtually no exploration (especially by the major Gold miners) to replace depleting reserves. When the POG rises many miners will be caught flat-footed with little opportunity to take advantage of changing fundamentals. The big companies have become fat, dumb, and happy. They are missing the boat on this one as it takes several years from exploration to actual production. Only the nimble and quick will rise up to challenge the dominance of the major Gold miners. Interesting article.

Black Blade

(02/24/2002; 15:04:54 MDT - Msg ID: 70683)

Canucks Take Gold in Hockey

Congrats to you Canucks! Gold goes to the Canuck Hockey Team - eh? The US Hockey Team was absolutely out-classed. Hey Silver ain't too bad either.

- Black Blade

Belgian

(02/24/2002; 15:47:17 MDT - Msg ID: 70684)

@ Kludge

Sir, I like it, the way you keep hammering on your particular confusion about the protective purchasing power
of Gold. Indeed, must admit, I had the same problem up until A & A provided their precious insigths and vision.
To me, only the last 30 (70) years are more than enough evidence for the vicious play (organized play) between fiat currencies and Physical Gold Valuations. If (!) the trade of Physical Gold should realy been set *FREE*, than the whole world would know what the exact purchasing power of the present masses of confetti would realy be. Such an attempt was made in the 1971-1981 decade, where Gold's Valuation was on its way to tell us all what all these masses of fiat were realy worth. POG went a ballistic x 25 and was stopped by all means! Think about any currency's fluctuating worth in time and space. POG was/is forced to walk in tandem with fiat's purchasing *dictates*. Gold and currencies are/were *UN-FREE* For so many reasons cited in TG's studies. From 1980 onwards, the total fiat amount increased exhorbitantly against total mass of produced goods and services. POG declined from 850$ >>> 253$ !!!
This phenominal anomaly happened during this very short accountable history. Impossible to reproduce what happened during the past 2.000 years-cycles (analogies).

In 1971, 1 gram of Gold (1 ounce silver) bought 1 barril of crude oil. POG was 42,3$ : 31,1 (grams per ounce) = 1,36$ per barril. Today POG 294$ : 31,1 = 8,48 $ per barril.
Gold and Crude Oil dictate a very different (significant) price for the dollar-paper. And this is not without reason !

You surely understand the utter importance of today's *CHEAP* crude oil. The ongoing geopolitical events provide the necessary evidence. Massive falsifications can live a long life until suddenly the BIG LIE is exposed and inevitably leads to "adjustment" (cfr. the '71/'80 POG-run).

Kludge, have you any idea how much dollar-paper (notes + counterfeit) and dollar-digits are floating around ?
And do you understand why up until today, this exhuberance hasn't been translated into "HYPERINFLATION" ?
Billions of non US people are sweating under medieval conditions to make this Big Lie survive ! Got a nice picture from inside China by a friend, who describes these billion workers without anything of what they produce on the shelves of their own shops ! Confusing, isn't it ?
The same can be said about crude oil revenues for Arabian peoples. And if tomorrow we find out that Osama Bin Laden is back home in Saudi Arabia...something more serious will
will evolve.

Physical Gold in Possession will and shall expose this decades old irrational play with undisciplined confetti creation. Gold (and oil) will suddenly decide to tell us what is the real worth of confetti. There must be other examples in history of such a "complete" re-valuation. But they are not documented and happened on a much smaller scale. Today it will be a *global* event.
Fiat currency on the present scale is a very recent invention . Difficult to find a similar/analog fenomenon hundreds of centuries back.

Regards and thanks for hammering on the subject.

neer-do-well

(02/24/2002; 16:39:14 MDT - Msg ID: 70685)

bone pile

Rural america, less organized than main stream still figures into the economic equation. Thats where I live, small village in SE Alaska.
The local economy hinges on fishing and logging, both completely flat. No price for the product. We have A LOT of GOVERNMENT employies, they are doing very well. Thier budgets become ever sweeter, especially EDUCATION....the sacred cow.
In short, peolpe who produce a product are going broke.
Real estate prices are going down.

GoldnSilver2002

(02/24/2002; 16:40:23 MDT - Msg ID: 70686)

From the layman's perspective

Hi guys,great site!Im your average joe who spends all his time reading these sites and articles'slowly waking up to what is going on.Of course lost in all this is the average joes ability to hold onto his gold and silver in definitely.So once again it becomes a game for the select few to benefit from.Im lucky ,i started hearing the calls for gold before y2k but didnt budge and buy.Then sept 11 hit and i knew the world would never be the same.My hats are off for the fed,jpm,central banks et all,for keeping the prices down despite everything.We know that history often repeats itself and this does look like a mini 1929 meltdown especially if JPM Chase get in trouble with their derivatives market.Then we have Japan buying gold and preparing for collapse,what will they do?Nothing of course!We shouldnt underestimate the big boys ability to hold down pog for longer than the average guys ability to wait for any significant pog hike.We celebrate a say at 300,forgeting that not long ago it was well over 300.When you have been hearing for years "Gold will explode!" while people make 50,100,200 percent on other investments,you see gold's problem.We have Japan buying at an ever increasing amount,but no real price hike.We see the dow dip to 8200 and still gold cant beat 300.We have enron'sept 11th layoffs and war(middle east) and still nothing.The real danger here is that the cabal can keep prices down so long the little guy will be selling at 325 while the big boys can easily afford to buy it at deflated prices.Yes we know gold should be at easily 450/oz in these times but if takes another 3,4,5 years for gold to awake then the little guy will miss out anyway.On top of this people may run to the euro as a reserve currency.

On the positive side,the cracks in jpm chase' armour are beginning to show,Japan 's banks will soon be lifting deposit insurance in april and chinas gold exchange will soon open.Clearly gold needs a big helping hand because if all these problems only get gold to kiss 300 then God only knows what will spring it over.Perhaps only Gata and a huge amount of publicilty,cause it sure looks like a time of crisis to me but im not impressed by gold or silver so far,when will it really go?Does anyone know?

RobotGuy

(02/24/2002; 16:57:09 MDT - Msg ID: 70687)

GOLD!! GOLD!! GOLD!!! GOLD!!!

Hey folks! thought I'd drop by and rub it in!! CANADA WINS the gold medal in men's hockey, best of all the games!!!

Cheers!!!! ;)

Rx Gold

(02/24/2002; 17:03:19 MDT - Msg ID: 70688)

@Black Blade

Do you have any lnks to new coal bed methane project in the Powder River,Wyoming and Tongue River Basins? I heard something about maybe a power plant put in to use this gas? Sell bullion and buy gas? Just kidding.

Black Blade

(02/24/2002; 18:15:18 MDT - Msg ID: 70689)

Rx Gold - Coal Bed Methane

There are plans to build a methane-fired power plant somewhere between Buffalo and Sheridan, Wyoming and then sell the electricity. I have also heard that the project could be expanded to three plants. Of course there is a lot of NIMBY here as that part of Wyoming has been flooded with a lot of Kalifornian and Flatlander emigrants (invaders?) over the years. The environmental concerns fall on deaf ears, as methane is clean burning.

I may not be working in Coal Bed Methane much this year as most companies have shelved plans until the price of NG rebounds, permits are available, and pipeline infrastructure is built for more NG. This is similar to methane production across North America. Prices need to be well in excess of $3.00 Mbtu to attract much attention anymore. That means there will likely be another "Energy Crisis" this coming Fall and Winter. It also means that we can write off any economic recovery for the second half of the year (sorry CNBC).

It looks like another boom-bust cycle coming full circle. The Powder River Basin will likely be a lot less busy this year based on all the factors described above. However, the shallow CBM here is much cheaper to produce that from deep conventional sources even though the decline rates are extremely high. CBM wells typically begin to decline in production in about a year. I have noticed that withdrawal rates from NG storage are nearly 40% to 50% higher than normal.

I hope to get in a lot of hunting, fishing, and camping in this year while I wait for TSTHTF. The Winter weather has restricted some of my activities except skiing and going to the gym (in fact I just got back). However, the colder weather and cheaper NG prices mean that NG supply will be withdrawn much quicker. If temperatures soar this summer as El Ni--o takes hold, then energy use will climb even higher. Much of the nitrogen based fertilizer and ammonia industries have returned to the US and that takes a tremendous amount of NG. If the US economy attempts a recovery we will see NG use rise proportionately and the supply for that is almost nonexistent. Even with all the increased drilling and production activity last year, production overall only increased about 2%. Thank God we had a Recession or else we would have faced an "Energy Crisis" of epic proportions. Looks to be an "Interesting" year. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Rx Gold

(02/24/2002; 18:50:09 MDT - Msg ID: 70690)

@Black Blade

Thanks for the info. It looks like I'll just have to ride the gold bull for a while yet. I'm in Montana and farmers are concerned about pollution of CBM water containing salt being dumped in the rivers. Ranchers are concerned about the stock water being depleted. These are not newbies, most have been on the land over 100 years.

Some folks are saying to re-inject the water, which should solve most environmental problems. Others are saying that the water should be cleaned using reverse osmosis. Do you have any ideas on the economics of these procedures?

R Powell

(02/24/2002; 19:17:21 MDT - Msg ID: 70691)

Canadian Gold

Congrats to the Canadian Hockey team!
Well-played.
Rich

silvester

(02/24/2002; 20:21:34 MDT - Msg ID: 70692)

@Kludge

Surely the message Belgium provided in response to your question was to your satisfaction. I've enjoyed the discussion since these are some of the thoughts I toss around myself.

Some say gold has been manipulated down. Actually the message really says "the dollar has been manipulated up beyond any responsible measure!"

When the correction occurs, those who hold gold will have the means to maintain. No matter what the price of Roman combat boots.

Mr. Bill

(02/24/2002; 20:45:45 MDT - Msg ID: 70693)

@Kludge

You have to compare apples to apples (fiat) and not to oranges (gold). In roman times, the total amount of goods (boots) and services (a day's labor) was miniscule compared to today. The currency used was gold and silver. The price of the boots reflected how much gold was required to buy them.

In today's world, because of mass production and the size of the labor pool, the total amount of goods and services is gargantuan. If currency regains its gold backing (or even a portion of it), the price of the boots would be miniscule in the amount of gold required to buy them.

But then again, I hate to imagine how much those boots would have cost in roman times if there had been trillions and trillions of dollars, euros, or yen floating around.

Max Rabbitz

(02/24/2002; 21:01:59 MDT - Msg ID: 70694)

Thank you Sir Kludge for the Roman web sites;

I find that era fascinating. As you know it's most difficult to compare values over time, everything is relative to something else, even gold as you point out (some times it's needed more than others). I would argue that labor is the most important thing to compare. The price of wheat is largely the labor needed to till, plant and harvest. Same with boots. Even the cost of the leather is from time spent caring for the cattle that provided it, and then making the leather. The cost of most things can be traced back to the cost of labor. I'd go with labor value but won't quibble if you opt for wheat.
Historical prices of gold and silver vary considerably depending on the times and places. In ancient Rome the monetary system was, dare I say it, "manipulated" by decree of the Senate (coins marked SC) and major commodity prices were regulated by the Senate or Emperor. Although prices were set, including wheat and probably army boots, the good coins of gold and silver found their own value and largely disappeared from use to be replaced by lower percentage silver coins, clads and tin. This decline (inflation) occurred over hundreds of years. So what was the real value of gold and silver in Rome? The official rate or the street value? During the last one or two hundred years of the empire, most of the gold went to barbarians to keep them away from the frontiers. They would not take bronze. You could make a case that Rome fell when they ran out of gold. How does one put a value on this use? Perhaps a better comparison for gold would be Byzantium where their gold coin remained a standard for a thousand years after the fall of Rome. In my mind the fall of Rome was largely due to inflationary monetary policy and a centrally controlled economic system run for the advantage of the political class and their supporters. Hmmm....sounds familiar.
Sir Kludge, I agree with some of what you say. There is validity in your observation that people wanted stock more than gold so stock went up and gold went down. However, your thesis does not disprove manipulation. Both could easily be true. Both reinforcing the other. We could argue all day/night about the true value of gold in the past. However, two main reasons why I have come to believe that the price of gold is manipulated are:

1) Allen Greenspan said so a few years ago (captured on video) saying that should the price of gold rise central banks are ready to lend gold into the market. Perhaps he and the central banks just want to unload excess gold. But the context of his remarks were about controlling inflation and not maximizing bank profits. Occam's razor points to manipulation.

2) The latest James Turk essay "Accounting for the ESF's Gold swaps" There is a clear discrepancy in the accounting. Check it out. It's at the GATA website which I can't seem to bring up tonight. Do a google search later when cabal goes to bed. (Just kidding!!!).

Black Blade

(02/24/2002; 21:07:08 MDT - Msg ID: 70695)

Rx Gold - alkali CBM water

I know that there are some concerns about some areas where there is alkali water. The water is pumped to lower the water table level so that the methane dissociates from the coal and is pumped into the pipeline. In many of the CBM production areas in the Powder River Basin this is not a problem and the water is used to fill stock ponds and creates wetlands. In many areas, the alkali crust is seen around natural water holes as well. That is the nature of the carbonate soils and underlying rock.

The Tongue River is one area where there seems to be a bit of a concern because there has been a drought this last years and there is just not much water for dilution. BTW, the Tongue River near Dayton, Wyoming is one of my favorite fly-fishing areas.

It is a difficult situation to get a handle on is the reaction of the locals. The vast majority of residents appear to favor the CBM industry. This includes ranchers who have mineral rights and those who collect surface disturbance and access fees. Of course this can also vary depending on the company that leases the rights in certain areas. I have talked to ranchers who have said that it was CBM that saved their ranches and others who wish they could get some producer to look at their land. Then of course there are the "Gentleman Ranchers" who buy up vast tracts of land such as Ted and Jane Turner who just want a private "playground" in the west.

There are many fly-by-night small timers who don't have the resources to manage these projects effectively. These are the people who can be a potential problem from a PR perspective. If they don't follow through on their obligations then they can make life rough for everyone else. However, the Bureau of Land Management holds most of the leases and the mineral rights. Then the producer has to negotiate with the landowner for access and disturbance fees, etc. Reinjection would be very costly as the water would has to be piped several miles only to probably be withdrawn again as wells are drilled in extensions to the CBM field. The reason that CBM production works is because it is relatively inexpensive.

Until cold fusion becomes a reality or nuclear power becomes the source of energy desired by Americans, this is the only viable source of clean energy. Of course if fuel cell power becomes economically viable, then natural gas will be the most likely abundant source for hydrogen as it is rather expensive to separate from water with little net gain in energy. Hydrocarbons are the lifeblood of the US economy, and during a deepening Recession we could see much more demand for an economic recovery. That means we must have cheap and abundant energy. It looks like CBM production is here to stay. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Rx Gold

(02/24/2002; 22:03:29 MDT - Msg ID: 70696)

@Black Blade

The idea of the power plants using the gas to make electricity and having it be clean burning sure does seem to be easier to get by the population. Of course nobody wants it in the back yard.

The view from Montana is that Wyoming doesn't give a hoot how bad they screw things up, just so long as the bars stay open. I have head that there was talk of a coal-fired plant in the area also, but that might be more of a NIMBY project than CBM.

I understand how cheap production is IF there are limited constraints. As the price goes up as you predict, maybe production could afford doing a more farm and ranch friendly job. I guess the farmers and ranchers are afraid that they will be left with salted up sterile farms and the ranchers without water for their cattle after the CBM guys are gone in a few years.

If TSHTF it may all be moot. Might see you around the campfire if you head north. Thanks for the insight from the production side.

Rx Gold

(02/24/2002; 22:44:16 MDT - Msg ID: 70697)

gold, silver, and how about thoes diamonds?

http://magma.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/data/2002/03/01/html/ft_20020301.1.htmlsnip
<"Diamonds are not really a commodity like gold or silver," a leading New York dealer explained to me one day. "You won't buy a stone from a jeweler and then sell it back to him for the same price�he's not going to give up his profit. But they are definitely the easiest way to move value around. I know a guy who had to leave Iran at a moment's notice during the revolution there. No time to sell his house or get to the bank, but he had time to pick up 30 million dollars� worth of diamonds and walk away."

"They are a form of currency," remarked Mark van Bockstael of the Diamond High Council in Antwerp. "They back international loans, pay debts, pay bribes, buy arms. In many cases they are better than money." Monrovia, capital of Liberia, for example, is known as a mecca for money launderers seeking to turn questionable cash assets into diamonds that can then be easily moved and sold elsewhere. There have been unconfirmed reports that Osama bin Laden's terrorist organization, al Qaeda, made use of this operation. >

Grubstaker

(02/24/2002; 23:16:02 MDT - Msg ID: 70698)

welcome NEER-DO-WELL

It is good to see you here!. I lived in the Aluetians,Bering Coast and finally in Anchorage. Did a stay in Juneau as part of my work and there's a real Pork Barrel town if I ever saw one! All of what we have witnessed is logical..as in ..If money(currency $$$) can be produced out of thin air and only represents an instrument of debt, can be distributed without impunity, then why wouldn't everyone and his cousin jump on that train? I have benefited greatly from this system by buying and holding physical GOLD along with a partial pension. Right now I'm visiting the tropics for a spell. Still, if and when a financial meltdown occurs folks like us can fend for themselves..There's a lot to be said about this...
Be well my friend....

Kodie

(02/24/2002; 23:28:32 MDT - Msg ID: 70699)

Grubstaker, what years ...

...did you live in the Aleutians?

Waverider

(02/25/2002; 00:09:21 MDT - Msg ID: 70700)

Glittering rally sets world's goldbugs abuzz

http://www.iht.com/articles/49184.htmlAssorted Snippits:
"The shudder that went through the gold market last week hasn't swept the glitter out of the goldbugs' eyes.

"What we're seeing is that the funds are taking massive long positions," said Alan Williamson, head of commodities research at HSBC Investment Bank in London. The funds are encouraged by a drop in the gold supply caused by a slide in mining output, a global stock-market slump that is sending investors in search of new assets, and widespread financial uncertainty.

"If Enron proves to be just the tip of the iceberg, gold could provide the kind of leadership it had in the 1970s when it rose from $35 an ounce to $850," Faber says in his latest report.

"Japanese buyers - when the financial world teeters, gold traditionally becomes the investment of last resort. Japanese investors, who have seen the value of their stock holdings wither, are piling into gold. In the last quarter of 2001, Japanese purchases of gold shot up 54 percent, according to the World Gold Council. Faber argues that Japanese buying could become a major force in the gold rally. He says that Japan, which has a population of 120 million and a per-capita gross domestic product of more than $35,000, imports about 100 tons of gold a year. By comparison, India, with a population of 1 billion but a per-capita GDP of only about $300, imports nearly 900 tons a year.

Gold bugs will be watching closely this week for signs that the rally is for real. After the recent sharp climb, they worry that if gold prices slip too far too fast, the retreat could trim enthusiasm. Williamson said that if the price holds at around $290 and moves back toward the $300 level, "then the sell-off would have been a very positive pullback."

Waverider: It's good to see some positive news on Gold in the mainstream media after last weeks shenanigans. Cheers!

timbervision

(02/25/2002; 00:10:38 MDT - Msg ID: 70701)

Rx Gold

Rx Gold, did you post that link re. diamonds because of a question about how one should view diamond or jewellery assets? In a banking and monetary crisis would diamonds be expected to appreciate significantly in value, as is expected gold will do?

In another line of thinking, would items such as Persian rugs which are labour intensive and require great skill to make, appreciate in value relative to the dollar, (or whatever currency re-establishes itself after the fiat currency collapse,) compared to today? Would this not be the case if we understand the current low prices of third world goods to be because of the exporting of US inflation under the current world financial structure?

Any thoughts on this would be greatly appreciated.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(02/25/2002; 02:01:06 MDT - Msg ID: 70702)

In bookstores for $14.95 (plus tax). Get it here for ONLY $5.95 ($3 postage)!

http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

The ABCs of Gold Investing

ABCs of Gold by MK "Without waxing philosophical, a few words are helpful concerning the mind-set with which you pursue your interest in gold ownership. Some enter the gold market to make a profit, others to hedge disaster, some to accomplish both. No matter into which category you fit, make sure you understand why you are going into the gold market. Convey that understanding to the individual with whom you are structuring your gold portfolio. The whys have quite a bit to do with what you end up owning.

"Frequently investors will say that any kind of gold will do because after all gold is gold, isn't it? This type of attitude has helped a great many coin shop owners unload unwanted inventory they hadn't been able to get rid of for years. This is probably a good deal for the coin dealer, but it could spell disaster for you. In the same vein, I have talked to hundreds, probably thousands, of investors in nearly a quarter century in the business. Quite often, potential investors have no more reason for buying gold than 'everybody else is doing it.'

"In Chapter 16 on portfolio planning, you will find some details on this important subject. For now, consider the inscription over the entrance to the temple of the ancient Delphic Oracle: 'Know Thyself.' Study. Read. Learn what's going on around you. Call a few gold firms and ask questions. There's nothing like conversation to stimulate thinking. Take time to lay a little groundwork. Then make your move. The political and economic situation being what it is, there is no better time to start than now. Know thyself -- your goals and needs -- and you will be a more confident, happier gold investor." (more)

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

TownCrier

(02/25/2002; 03:09:23 MDT - Msg ID: 70703)

"EMISSION"

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020224/n24217655_1.htmlYou've seen me use this term before. Although historically it's been seldom seen outside of central banking circles, you'll want to add it to your vocabulary now. Due to circumstances unfolding at the present, it will likely become the next popular buzz word to follow the likes of "hedonic", "synergy", "new paradigm", etc. Be the first in your neighborhood to understand the implications!

R.

HEADLINE: Argentina prints pesos to finance public spending

TownCrier

(02/25/2002; 03:39:34 MDT - Msg ID: 70704)

Argentina's largest private bank asks cenbank for bailout

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020222/n22369394_4.htmlThe situation...

------------BUENOS AIRES, Argentina, Feb 22 (Reuters) - Banco Galicia, pummeled by a run on deposits amid nationwide financial chaos, said on Friday it had asked the Central Bank to take over around half the company in return for massive debt forgiveness.

..."We have few other options," director Daniel Llambias said, adding the amount of debt to be swapped was being negotiated with the Central Bank, but the government could end up with majority control of the bank. "This will improve our image, because it improves Galicia's financial solidity."-------------

And the government's thoughts?

-----------The government, near bankrupt itself following last month's default on part of its $141 billion debt and a traumatic currency devaluation, showed little initial enthusiasm for a possible deal. In response to a question about Galicia on Friday morning, Economy Minister Jorge Remes Lenicov said: "This is an issue that goes beyond a strictly financial and banking realm, but it is not in our spirit to take on private banks. We want private banks to strengthen themselves."----------

Word on the street...

-----------Analysts have said some smaller Argentine banks would inevitably collapse amid the financial panic, but many agreed on Friday the government could not afford to let an entity as big as Galicia collapse. ``In the end, banks like Galicia have to be propped up. You can't close them -- this is the core of the financial system,'' said Robert Lacoursiere, a banking analyst for Lehman Brothers. ``This is an important admission that they can't see a way out of this with their own equity.''

Ratings agencies and private economists say the Argentine banking system as a whole has been left insolvent by the run and the ensuing devastation caused by the devaluation, which has seen the peso slide by more than half its original one-to- one value against the dollar.--------------

Why should you own gold? Because paper everywhere is finally beginning to show its mettle. And it will be seen that much of it is wanting under scrutiny.

R.

Gold Standard

(02/25/2002; 04:12:18 MDT - Msg ID: 70705)

Funny how this always happens.......

If I were cynical, I'd probably do a bit of research upon the origins of these amazing shipwreck stories, that always bob to the surface when the Cabal is under pressure.

Do you remember the last one, the wreck off the Korean coast, that contained enough gold bullion to sink a ship? (Well, it obviously did!).

Just wait for the estimates of the bullion in the ship's bowels to come to light - 5 million tonnes, anyone?

This news is just going to hammer the POG in London trading, isn't it?

Here's the link:

http://www.boston.com/dailynews/055/world/Britain_Wreck_off_Gibraltar_ap:.shtml

Good thing I'm not cynical, isn't it?

Gold Standard ........ sinking into the ooze.......

Gold Standard

(02/25/2002; 04:16:12 MDT - Msg ID: 70706)

Of sinking ships....

http://www.boston.com/dailynews/055/world/Britain_Wreck_off_Gibraltar_ap:.shtmlSorry - that link should light up now!

TownCrier

(02/25/2002; 04:36:58 MDT - Msg ID: 70707)

POP QUIZ. HEADLINE Q: BOJ under pressure to ease further, but how?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020225/t107286_1.htmlA: Emission. Wait for it...

----------TOKYO, Feb 25 (Reuters) - ...when interest rates are already near zero ... the Bank of Japan's policy board meets on Thursday to discuss how it can help turn around the world's second largest economy.

"Even if there are additional policy tools, their effectiveness may be uncertain and they could have side-effects," BOJ policy board member Teizo Taya said.

Economists are divided over whether the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will announce fresh policy moves... Some said the BOJ had little choice but to ease further since it must be seen to be cooperating with government to combat a three-year run of falling prices.... But others said the BOJ had run out of effective policy options.-------------

Here it is...

-----------------The government's anti-deflation package, expected to be unveiled on Wednesday, is to focus on steps to speed up the disposal of banks' bad loans and stabilise the financial system. A government source said the package would also call for the BOJ to take bold monetary policy steps... Economists said the most likely policy decision would be an increase in the BOJ's outright purchases of government bonds to provide more liquidity.----------------

And "whom" is it that "prints" the money? i.e., from where does the "will" arise?

-----------------Earlier this month, BOJ Governor Masaru Hayami said he saw no need for a further increase in JGB buying, but political pressure has not gone away.

Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has said he wants the central bank to take firm action to fight deflation, while Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa has more bluntly called on the BOJ to increase its JGB buying to one trillion yen per month.

``The policy decision is getting more political and it depends on market movements rather than the real economy,'' said Naoki Murakami, economist at BNP Paribas.--------------

And it's a two way street, to be sure.

-----------------Sources close to the talks said the central banker asked the premier to consider swift action to stabilise the financial system, including injecting taxpayers' money into fragile banks. ``I think the BOJ will offer their monetary policy support in return for the government's determination to inject public funds into the banking sector,'' BNP Paribas's Murakami said.--------------

Isn't it rather quaint the way the article refers to it as "taxpayers' money" -- almost as if there were some other kind? Under the current structure of the system, ultimately speaking, ALL money is "taxpayer's" money. Much change needs be for it to be otherwise. Fail to understand this at your own financial peril.

R.

TownCrier

(02/25/2002; 05:49:39 MDT - Msg ID: 70708)

HEADLINE: The 'old economy' is making a surprise comeback as investors redirect capital from the US to Europe

http://www.guardian.co.uk/euro/story/0,11306,656808,00.htmlKey excerpts:

----------------America was a magnet for investors during the prolonged 90s boom that made some analysts wax lyrical about a "new economy" that could grow indefinitely. Europe was considered an "old economy", hamstrung by too many regulations and inflexible policy making.

As a result, global capital poured into the US and sent the dollar soaring.... architects of the euro who thought the single currency might become an alternative reserve currency have been sorely disappointed.

But no one talks any longer about the new economy since the US entered recession... Not only that, but some economists wonder whether European productivity was so bad after all. ... an OECD study showing that German GDP per employee and GDP per hour worked both rose faster than the US during 1990-1998.

...And it appears that investors are reassessing their views of the US and Europe ... there has been a discernible shift in capital flows between the US and the eurozone.

...analysts point out, with US company profits flat, the demand for bonds could weaken, posing a risk to the dollar. Conversely, that would strengthen the euro.--------------

Gold provides good shelter against a weakening currency -- provided you have it BEFORE the trouble sets in.

(click URL for full article)

uponroof

(02/25/2002; 06:05:55 MDT - Msg ID: 70709)

Top 25 US banks and their 2001 Q4 performance...

http://www.fdic.gov/bank/analytical/largest/index.htmlInteresting to be sure. I wonder how much of this is going to be eventually challenged as questionable accounting. JPMC lost 322M in Q4. Citigroup, beneficiary of Robert Rubin political vaseline....plus 1+B. Bookmark and compare in a year?

JAPAN.....02

What does Japan do? Each day that passes without 'reform' (bankruptcy declared) 2 more days are added to the eventual 'recovery' which will extend the prime minister's political weakness on the backside of reform. Koizumi is politically weak now and hesitant to move. Triggering Japan's banking sector bankruptcy is not going to endear him to the Japanese people. It's a no win. He's got to look at this as a Kamakazi mission, not a political mission.

Meanwhile, as the delay in turn around reforms extend, Japan is asking for additional trouble. At the moment there does not seem to be any great disturbances in the world. Militarily or terroristically, or even through natural disasters. Should that change before Japan impliments their 'medicine' it will be much tougher to address and withstand. Any turbulance of significance here in America or even in Europe could impact the success of Japan's reforms. Timing is becomming crucial.

TownCrier

(02/25/2002; 06:51:34 MDT - Msg ID: 70710)

Updated WGC Weekly Gold Market Commentary

http://www.usagold.com/wgc.htmlIncludes the latest factors from official sectors in Germany, Japan, China, Zimbabwe, and Switzerland.

Belgian

(02/25/2002; 06:56:31 MDT - Msg ID: 70711)

The USA (dollar) Imperium

This world can't live without an imperial ruler (USA at present). But all imperiums have been challenged until they crumble under their own weight. The present imperium will have to face "political induced" shortage of deliverable Gold. GOLD is a political tool, Sir Kludge. The world has broken itself into "only two" currency system support blocks. US$ and �. Both have their supporters and destroyers. The present Japanese Gold-buying is in contradiction with the dollar block currency management.
And on top of this, the euro isn't trading "deep" enough.
Duisenberg (in China now) is more optimistic for the yearend. Japanese Gold buying comes on the wrong moment for both factions (US$-�). Welteke (Bundesbank) had to talk Gold down. Contract gold (LBMA-paper) MUST indicate the falsified purchasing power of the imperial dollar. The challengers, Euroland, China, Russia, Arabian oil states find this "falsification" still very convenient for their hidden strategy. In this plitical game, the dollar supporting paper gold arena is being forced to kill itself. That's why Welteke made his statement to Bloomberg and not in Euroland !!! The empire must be politically FORCED into
a state of Hyperinflation as de-falsification. Welteke invited for more easy dollar-printing ! In the meantime, let the euro grow more mature and oil ever more independent. The imperium (USA) must lose the dollar/oil/gold-war before the real face of the currency falsification can appear in all its uglyness.
(TG archives : feb. 2000 to june 2000)

Boilermaker

(02/25/2002; 07:12:33 MDT - Msg ID: 70712)

Strategic Energy Policy

http://www.emdaapg.org/Oil%20Shale.htmI agree with BB that energy will be the Achilles Heel for the resumption of growth in the US. High import levels, over 50% for oil, also pose a significant strategic risk to the nation's ability to carry on a military action and maintain an economy during a supply disruption.

My recommendation would be to establish a critcal domestic minimum production capacity as a percentage of total domestic demand for oil (and for other strategic commodities). An import limit would be established at whatever percentage was considered to be prudent in view of the commodity's importance to our security and the relative security of its foreign sources.

For instance, if we decided to import no more than 1/3 of our oil, an oil importer would have to purchase 2 bbls of domestic oil for each offshore barrel. Or, he could buy 2 domestic barrel credits from another domestic oil purchaser. This would establish a two tier oil pricing mechanism, free from direct government controls or tarriffs other than verification of credit validity for importers. Oil prices for domestic oil would rise above the world price whenever the domestic production fell below 2/3 of the total.

Of course reducing oil imports to 1/3 when they are now more than 1/2 would cause tremendous disruption. This can be handled by a phase-in over several years, by starting the domestic vs. import balance at 50/50 and gradually raising the bar, say 1% reduction in import levels each year until the long term goal was met.

I believe this is the only way we will ever get serious about energy conservation and at the same time begin to unlock the tremendous potential that we have with shale oil and other non-traditional sources. I'd also like to make a few more bucks from my stripper well.

Any comments on this idea?

uponroof

(02/25/2002; 07:51:38 MDT - Msg ID: 70713)

JPMC is crying "significant reputational risk"...

when it is the result of their own pattern of fraud.

UGLY.

The charge of 'pattern of fraud' is in a countersuit from the banks, who are being sued by JPMC for failure to honor Enron default obligations.

All this court case attention is giving media (perception = reality) legs to JPMC legal problems. "Significant reputational DAMAGE" is occurring.
*****************************************

Insurers Fault Enron Deals at Morgan

By RIVA D. ATLAS NY Times

In 1996, the Sumitomo Corporation (news/quote) of Japan discovered that a copper trader named Yasuo Hamanaka had lost $2.6 billion over the prior decade. The company eventually sued J. P. Morgan as well as Chase Manhattan (news/quote), charging that both banks, which have since merged, engineered loans disguised as trades that allowed Mr. Hamanaka to conceal his losses.

Now, several insurance companies, in legal filings tied to a court hearing on Wednesday, accuse the company, today known as J. P. Morgan Chase (news/quote), of having used similar tactics to help Enron (news/quote). As the insurers describe it, the bank's transactions allowed Enron to disguise debts.

J. P. Morgan has sued a total of 11 insurers for refusing to honor its $1 billion in claims relating to its dealings with Enron, which filed for bankruptcy.

Arguing against the bank in both cases is Alan Levine, a lawyer at Kronish, Lieb, Weiner & Hellman in New York, who hopes to strengthen the Enron case by arguing that there has been a pattern at J. P. Morgan Chase.

"The conclusion that Chase deliberately camouflaged a loan to Enron as a commodity transaction in order to perpetuate a fraud" on the insurance companies, Mr. Levine says in a court filing, "is buttressed by Chase transactions with other firms." Describing a transaction as a trade instead of a loan could make a company's debts look smaller than they really are.

J. P. Morgan maintains that there is nothing unusual, much less fraudulent, about the sorts of transactions involved in these cases.

A spokesman for J. P. Morgan, Joseph Evangelisti, said the Enron and Sumitomo cases are unrelated. "These cases are not analogous in any way, and will be decided on their own merits," he said. "The only link between the suits is they share the same lead counsel. "

Besides representing three of the insurance companies in the Enron case, Mr. Levine also represents Sumitomo in a lawsuit it filed in 1999 against Chase Manhattan, but not in a suit Sumitomo filed around the same time against J. P. Morgan. Both suits are still pending.

In the Enron case, J. P. Morgan has asked a Federal District Court judge in New York to issue an immediate ruling when he holds a hearing on Wednesday, avoiding evidence gathering and a trial.

Both cases may hinge on whether J. P. Morgan fully disclosed the nature of the trades, involving contracts known as derivatives. Derivatives promise payments from one party to another, with the value derived from changes in the price of an underlying security, index or commodity.

J. P. Morgan is one of the world's largest traders of derivatives; they accounted for an estimated 15 to 20 percent of its earnings last year, according to Ruchi Madan, an analyst at Salomon Smith Barney.

The trades with Enron were made by companies affiliated with J. P. Morgan, known as Mahonia Limited and Mahonia Natural Gas Limited. The transactions became public shortly after Enron's bankruptcy filing in December, when J. P. Morgan sued the insurance companies to collect more than $1 billion it says it is owed by Enron.

The insurance companies had provided a form of guarantee, known as surety bonds, in the event that Enron did not make good on its obligations.

In refusing to pay, the insurers argue that they were misled as to the true nature of the transactions between Enron and the bank. In these transactions, J. P. Morgan paid Enron up front in return for deliveries of oil and gas over several years.

The legal arguments Mr. Levine has made in the Sumitomo and Enron cases include similar descriptions of J. P. Morgan's derivatives transactions.

In the Sumitomo case, Mr. Levine wrote that Chase disguised its loans as "copper swaps," or agreements involving the actual purchase of the commodity and exposure to its fluctuating price. "In reality, these `copper swaps' were completely unrelated to copper," Mr. Levine argued. "They were neither physical copper transactions, nor financial transactions whose value was dependent on copper prices. They were loans, pure and simple."

In the Enron case, Mr. Levine again argues that the transactions were unrelated to the transfer of commodities � in this case, oil and gas.

"The parties appear to have arranged a series of paper transfers of gas and oil from Enron to Mahonia, from Mahonia to Chase, and from Chase or a Chase affiliate back to Enron," he said.

In a court filing by J. P. Morgan on Friday, the bank does not dispute Mr. Levine's characterization of the trades between Enron and the J. P. Morgan affiliates as loans.

"Any prepaid commodity sale contract provides financing," the bank says. "There is nothing inappropriate about structuring transactions to satisfy the parties' financial, tax, regulatory or accounting objectives within the relevant rules and standards."

Investor concerns over J. P. Morgan's conflict with the insurers have contributed to a sharp decline in value of its shares since Enron's December bankruptcy filing. The bank's stock fell to a 52-week low of $26.70 during the day on Friday, on a report in the Wall Street Journal that the Federal Reserve was examining the Enron trades. The stock recovered to end the day at $28.19 a share, down nearly 23 percent for the year.

The Federal Reserve's examination does not appear to be part of a formal investigation of the bank, according to both J. P. Morgan and the Fed. "It's normal for the Federal Reserve in its role as a bank regulator to look into high-profile transactions," said Mr. Evangelisti, who declined to comment directly on the matter.

A Fed spokeswoman, Michelle Smith, also declined to comment specifically. "As you know, we cannot comment at all on supervisory matters involving individual institutions," she said on Friday. "But, as part of our normal banking supervisory role, we need to understand what is happening at the institutions we supervise."

Still, J. P. Morgan conceded in its court filing Friday that negative publicity from the Mahonia suit has had an impact. "Already," the bank said, the insurers allegations of fraud and their refusal to pay, "have caused significant reputational risk to J. P. Morgan Chase."
*************
with thanks to clo at TABLE

Trapper

(02/25/2002; 08:26:17 MDT - Msg ID: 70714)

Timbervision

Diamonds are a funny thing. The diamond market is in almost complete control by the DeBeers folks with Russia playing along as it see fit. I have bought lots of stone during the '70-'80's gold rush when people would sell wedding and engagement sets for the gold. The diamonds in those sets ran in the 20 to 40 point area and were worth about 3-5 dollars a point. Most all the jewlery store stones are pretty poor quality if you are "investing" in diamonds I suggest you study some before you buy. Howard Ruff of the Ruff times news letter fame got alot of people in diamonds after his call on gold got some folks upset. Graded stone by GIA in H color or better and VVS and up are considered by most to investment grade stones. This of course is not investment advice and here again study the market but prices are down right now. The wild card is Russia if they need some cash have lots of stones to dump. Live small. Not investment advice.
RJ

Cavan Man

(02/25/2002; 08:59:48 MDT - Msg ID: 70715)

Wonderful satire (and truth)!

The Daily Reckoning PRESENTS: In honor of Chairman Greenspan's appearance before Congress this week, we thought this DR Classique - originally aired May 29, 2001 - particularly appropriate... enjoy...

I, GREENSPAN
By Bill Bonner

Bill Bonner asked me to write today's letter.

"How did an Ayn Rand devotee become the world's most respected central planning bureaucrat?" he asked. "How can you hope to overcome the business cycle and command the entire world's economic tides?" he wanted to know.

Good questions. So earnest. So innocent. So silly.

And why not answer? Nobody reads this pathetic little electronic rag anyway. That is, nobody who counts. Nobody with real power, that is. And if anyone ever asks me...I'll deny I ever heard of it.

Besides, I've been dying to explain...

Do you think I really failed to see the bubble in U.S. stock prices? You would have had to be blind, deaf and dumb not to notice.

Do you think I really believe in this New Era nonsense...or the productivity miracle? Do you really think that I don't know what happens when I flood the world with cash...and take real short-term interest rates down near zero?

But what was I supposed to do? I couldn't exactly come out and say - "it's a bubble!" Investors would have panicked.

Once stock prices got to bubble levels, I had to think of a reason why they might stay there...that was where that New Era and productivity razz-ma-tazz came from. People wanted an explanation and I gave it to them.

Do you think I learned nothing in all that time I spent with Ayn Rand - that miserable, self-absorbed old tart? Reading her books was painful enough - but can you imagine having to spend time with her? I tell you frankly, I got so sick of those egocentric gab fests, in those pitiful little apartments of lower Manhattan...I thought I would go mad.

Rand had made herself into a minor cult figure. But what did it gain her? A following of marginalized nuts and kooks with bad taste, bad habits, and apartments cluttered with science fiction paperbacks.

What I wanted was power, love, money - the same things we all want. And I could never get them with the Randites.

Instead, if you want power, you have to go to where the power is. Caesar could have lived comfortably in any of the Romanized towns around the Mediterranean. Hitler could have had a pleasant life eating schnitzel and bratwurst in Austria. And Bill Clinton could have stayed in Hope, Arkansas. He could have married a local girl, worked as a courthouse lawyer, and become a colorful subject for a grotesque southern novel.

Power in America is in two places. The political power is in Washington. And financial power is in New York. But the real power is where the two come together - in the Federal Reserve system.

You have to remember that the purpose of the Fed - as with any cartel - is to make sure the member banks make money. But, the Fed gets its authority from Washington...it has to pay for this privilege somehow.

The Fed was chartered to protect the currency and ensure the stability of the banking system. But its real mission - now - is to keep the economy expanding. Why? Because that gets politicians re-elected. Not only that, it keeps the money flowing to Washington. Give people the impression that they are better off...and they won't fuss about taxes.

The Fed was founded in 1913. At that time, Washington only took about 5% of the nation's income and the dollar was solid. Since then, Washington's percentage of GDP has increased by nearly 600%. Meanwhile, the dollar has fallen 95%.

Do you really think that was an accident? C'mon...give us central bankers some credit. Inflation pushed people into higher and higher tax brackets. Plus, it gave people the impression that they were getting richer - just what Washington wanted.

Of course, if the inflation rate goes too high...people begin to complain and you have to take action. Thank God Volcker was on the watch back in the late '70s, and not me.

But here's the important thing. Even when you have control of short term rates...and some control over the money supply...you can never completely master the markets. They're too big, too many players, too much money. If you allow too much inflation, you spook the bond markets...and the bond vigilantes mount up. Investors dump bonds...driving up long term interest rates...which has an effect opposite to what you're trying to accomplish. That's already happening a little bit. I cut rates 5 times in the first 5 months of 2001 - no one ever cut rates as aggressively as I have - and still mortgage rates rose.

Could inflation go higher? Could the dollar fall? Mightn't the bond buyers get nervous and drive long-term rates up even higher?

Yes, of course. It's a risk. But it's a risk I have to take. You don't get power by being careful. And you don't do either the Fed, or the politicians, or yourself, any favors by carefully protecting the dollar.

The goal here - as with all government programs - is to produce the desired benefits...while pushing the costs onto someone else. That's how politics works. You promise something...and you force someone else to pay for it. You rob one rich Peter voter...and spread the loot among the poor Pauls.

Why do you think liberals always favor the poor? Why do you think every politician talks about programs for the disadvantaged, the sick, the unemployed? Why do they not give money to the rich...at least, not openly? You think they are just big-hearted, generous souls right? Ha ha. Look, you have to do the math.

Politics favors the poor for two reasons - there are more of them...and they're cheaper. How many rich votes can you buy with a $100 handout?

Does that sound cynical? Well, sorry. But you have to look at the situation, shall I say, objectively.

In the long run, giving money to poor people hurts the poor more than the rich - but who cares about the long run? In the long run, said Keynes, we're all dead.

And now let me tell you another secret - how I became the most successful central banker ever. Keynes also figured out how to use fiscal policy to keep the economy expanding beyond its natural cycle. The idea was for the government to spend like crazy when the economy was weak - to stimulate it. The government would run deficits during the down cycles...and then make up for them by running surpluses in good times.

But guess what? The politicians forgot to run surpluses in the good times. Why? Because they really don't care about the long term or about fiscal responsibility. What they care about is promising voters new programs...and keeping the economy expanding. So, the debts mounted up, but people felt like they were getting something for nothing - and it worked for a long time.

And now, thanks to the economy that I helped create, government is looking at big surpluses. Well, don't count on it. Washington wants to appear to run surpluses - this allows the politicians to decide where to spend the money. But no one in Washington has any interest in actually running a surplus. Count on it. The surpluses - to the extent they were ever real (which they weren't) - will disappear before our very eyes.

Well, what I figured out was that you could use monetary policy in roughly the same way. The theory is that you're supposed to loosen up on the rates - lower them - in a downturn. And then, when times are good, you gradually increase rates to "cool things down." But the trick is, you forget to raise them as much as you should. You always favor rates that are lower than they ought to be. Because you want to encourage more business expansion - and the illusion of prosperity - than would otherwise be justified.

Let me ask you a question: could you imagine me raising rates 5 times in 5 months to head off a bubble? Not a chance. I would be torn apart by the furies in Washington, the media, and Wall Street.

Of course, there will be a price to pay for this too. Nothing comes without a price. Investors who really believe this New Era nonsense will lose a lot of money. They think they can get 15% per year on their investments forever. It isn't going to happen. That doesn't mean stocks have to crash. In fact, I think I can keep them at present levels for many years - perhaps like the period between 1966 and 1973. Easy money can perform wonders - for a while. But instead of 15% for the next 10 years, investors are likely to get zero percent for the next 15 years. Who knows?

Probably bonds and the dollar will come down too...and a lot of people will be hurt. But it could take years. And it might not even be noticeable. Who knows or cares that the dollar today is worth only 5 cents in 1913 terms?

And eventually, the system of managed currencies will collapse. Every central banker is doing what I am doing - deliberately destroying the currency to insure the appearance of prosperity. Sooner or later, people will catch on. They will try to switch from one currency to the other - but all the paper currencies will be weak and untrustworthy. Most likely, they will turn to gold. It's the only thing that we can't manipulate.

But that is probably years ahead. And it's a problem for someone else.

Alan Greenspan, Public Servant

Rx Gold

(02/25/2002; 09:02:06 MDT - Msg ID: 70716)

@timbervision

I really didn't have as deep a vision about the fluctuating value of diamonds. I thought it was interesting that the guy just grabbed a bag of diamonds and split leaving what I would consider a great deal on the table. With 30 million I would guess he had enough to get by for a while.

USAGOLD Market Commentary

(02/25/2002; 09:27:53 MDT - Msg ID: 70717)

There Will Always Be a Monday. . . .But the Latest News & Views Will Get Your Week Kick-StartedNEWS & VIEWS Update!

Available online to all clientele and prospective clientele, NEWS & VIEWS Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has again been updated.

Read the full commentary and related information here. (access codes required)

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" For those who want to buy [gold], the temptations are greater and the justification is stronger. Those who have listened to the naysayers [on gold] have probably missed the recent rally [up 19% from April 2001 lows]. So what should they all do now? Buy on the dips, betting that gold can bounce back over $300 and go a little further." Jonathan Fuerbringer, The New York Times (2/24/02)

"We expect that this [gold] rally may prove to be less of a temporary blip and more of a trend.'' Howard Patten, BarclaysCapital

Gold Market Brief (2/21/02). . . . . . Gold opened the week drifting to the downside. There was little in the way of news this morning and things are fairly quiet for the moment, as the market tries to shake-off the weekend and get back into the swing of things. "We need to break out of the range to establish the move. We might see first a consolidation, then gold could go either way...$288 should hold, as we tried it three times last week, while the upside target is $305-$306,'' one trader told Reuters. An announcement by Newmont that it would allow its hedges to retire "naturally" (instead of employing a more aggressive buy-back strategy as originally planned) was greeted with a yawn. Likewise, the strong speculative long position on the Comex reducing from 3.6 million ounces to 3.4 million was not enough to create any anxiety in either the bulls or the bears. (Ho-hum. . . .) The accompanying chart published by the World Gold Council this morning shows clearly the relationship between large speculative paper positions and the price of gold. Earlier in February, speculators have gone long gold driving it over the $300 level. When the Bundesbank made an announcement last week that it might sell some gold (in three to four years), the market retraced to the lower $290s. Some felt the market would drop precipitously. It didn't. Large speculators, as the numbers indicate, for the most part held their ground once again illustrating that there might be something to the recent gold market rally worth noting. The current gold market has more fundamental concerns:

(1) the precarious nature of overall stock market valuesas revealed by the Enron debacle;

(2) the slow motion destruction of the Japanese banking system;

(3) the potential for further economic disasters in the third world as Argentina implodes; and,

(4) the on-going dismemberment of gold hedging operations worlwide -- operations which previously assisted in capping the price.

(All of which are covered in some detail below)

All of this has caused a rising level of concern among investors worldwide which in turn has correlated to rising gold demand. Stay tuned. Monday's are usually days we just muddle through in the gold market.

I've updated Short & Sweet.

* * *

Short & Sweet. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Enron collapse continues to bedevil the financial markets. The New York Times -- an unlikely source of doom and gloom -- yesterday spelled it out for investors: "When companies rack up huge hidden debts and traders illicitly amass mountains of risk are exposed, Wall Street's big players rush to cut their losses and collect on their debts. If that kind of rush were ever to result in a shortage of cash, it would paralyze the financial system. Stock markets would tumble and banks would close, putting the savings of households at risk." And later in the same article titled "Contracts So Complex They Imperil the System," the Times makes a point we have tried to drive home in these pages for months: "Billions in derivative contracts [Ed. Note: The Bank for International Settlements reports derivative contracts now exceed $100 trillion!] can hang on the share price of a single stock, and a firm's portfolio of derivatives can link the fortunes of the world's major financial institutions. For those reasons, market watchers sometimes worry about the risk that a crisis in one company or sector could bring the entire financial systems to its knees.". . . . . . . . Comment: I could not have crafted a better argument for gold ownership -- the stand-alone asset which is not simultaneously another's liability. . . . . . . . . . . . . .In another article yesterday -- this one titled "Three Decade-Old Echoes Awakened by Enron" -- the Times tells what this situation might translate to for stock investors. Stock investors are inveighed almost daily by one analyst or another that the stock market is likely to bounce back quickly. History defies that hope. "The last time a big, well known company collapsed as fast as Enron was in 1973, " says columnist Alex Berenson, "when the Equity Funding Corporation. . .fell apart. . .[Its] demise coincided with one of the worst stretches ever for stocks. When the company filed for bankruptcy on April 5, 1973, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index was at 108.52. Nine years later, it was 114.73. Of course, Equity Funding was far from the only reason that stocks stagnated. . .but [its] collapse discouraged investors from buying stocks for years." . . . . . . . . . . . . .Comment: Unlike the pervasive problems in stock valuations across the boards unearthed by the Enron debacle, the Equity Funding Corporation scandal of the 1970s was an isolated event. The current situation is much more pervasive, much more dangerous as it could affect hundreds of firms and the entire financial system, as the New York Times suggests. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..One of the propaganda ploys utilized by Wall Streeters in their anti-gold sermonizing is that themetal does not provide a yield. This is a specious argument. What they fail to tell investors is that most dollar-based savings instruments -- including certified deposits, money markets, and government bonds -- fail to provide a return for some very straightforward reasons. If for example, your money market is paying 1.5% per year, you are losing money -- a lot of money. With consumer inflation at roughly 4% even by the government's questionable index and taxes in the 40% range, the saver is losing over 4.5% a year on his or her money. This isn't saving for the future, it's organized theft through currency inflation and the way to get poor fast. On the other hand, as reported above, gold since last April is up 19% -- a more than respectable rate of return. . . . . . . . . . . . . "Derivatives are about shifting risk to the dumbest guy in the room." Financial writer Martin Mayer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . This link takes you to an excellent article on Wayne Murdy, Pierre Lassonde and Newmont from this weekend's London Times

Black Blade

(02/25/2002; 10:00:49 MDT - Msg ID: 70718)

Deflationary Tremors - Stephen Roach

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20020222-fri.html#anchor0
Snippit:

Deflationary forces are intensifying in the global economy. That's especially the case in Asia, a region that accounts for about 30% of world GDP. And it could also be the case for the rest of the world. Yet financial markets are leaning the other way. With hopes of economic recovery in the air, the fear of inflation is starting to creep back into asset prices. Have the markets got it right or wrong?

Black Blade: Interesting article. No wonder Asians are buying Gold. This could very well spread if Roach's scenario is true.

USAGOLD Market Commentary

(02/25/2002; 10:09:54 MDT - Msg ID: 70719)

News & ViewsNEWS & VIEWS Update!

Available online to all clientele and prospective clientele, NEWS & VIEWS Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has again been updated.

Read the full commentary and related information here. (access codes required)

New visitors may review these selected portions provided at the Daily Market Report page. You may enjoy our 24-Hour NewsWire provided at this page, also.

Cavan Man

(02/25/2002; 10:11:54 MDT - Msg ID: 70720)

Britain in Europe

Blair told: fix 1 May 2003 for euro poll
By Nigel Morris and Paul Waugh
25 February 2002
Internal links

Stephen King: Pieces falling into place for UK to join the euro
Tony Blair would take the dramatic gamble of staging a referendum on the single currency on 1 May 2003, under proposals that are being considered in Whitehall.

Pro-euro advisers are pressing the Prime Minister to arrange for the historic vote on abolishing the pound to coincide with elections to English district councils, the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Assembly.

The idea for staging the "super Thursday" vote as a way of boosting turnout � thereby increasing the democratic legitimacy of a pro-single currency result � has gained ground since the launch of euro notes and coins last month.

However, it would present a daunting challenge to Mr Blair, who would have to overturn hostility to the single currency among millions of voters in a little over a year.

The Britain in Europe (BiE) pressure group, which is expected to lead the "yes" campaign, has already drawn up a strategy plan based on a poll taking place on 1 May 2003.

The possibility of the spring vote was inadvertently revealed by Peter Hain, the minister for Europe, in an interview with a French newspaper last week. He said the Chancellor, Gordon Brown, could take a judgement on whether Britain had met the five economic tests for euro membership as soon as this autumn, with a poll taking place six months later.

Euro-enthusiasts are now focusing on 1 May as the only realistic date in the first half of next year for the referendum.

They think opposition to the euro is soft � with only one-third of voters strongly against the single currency and the rest open to persuasion � and could melt away after Britons return from summer holidays in euro-zone countries. They also believe the higher turnout on a "super Thursday", with the Government calling on the loyalty of Labour supporters, would lift the chances of a "yes" vote.

The former Tory chancellor, Kenneth Clarke, will put more pressure today on the Government to act swiftly on the euro in his first major speech since failing in his party leadership bid in September.

Charles Kennedy, the Liberal Democrat leader, will tell a BiE meeting today: "There is little point the Government dithering on this issue any longer. They need to call a referendum as soon as possible to help jobs, investment and trade."

The BiE "war book", planning for a 1 May referendum, sets out a detailed daily strategy for leading a "yes" campaign beginning in mid-March next year. A draft version of Operation Final Push: isolation or prosperity, seen by The Independent, envisages kicking off with an analysis of how prices for many consumer products are lower in countries with the euro than in Britain.

The feeling that Mr Blair could go to the country early was underlined in an interview this weekend with Charles Clarke, the party chairman, who said that 2002 was "decision year" on the issue. One minister confirmed that calls for a vote on 1 May 2003, were increasing. He said Mr Blair would increase his pro-euro rhetoric during the summer but would only call the referendum if he was convinced he could deliver a victory.

Meanwhile, Lehman Brothers, a US-owned City bank, said there was now a strong chance that a referendum to join the euro would succeed. A "poll of polls" had showed that public opposition to the euro had weakened in the last two years, it said.

CM comment: If this should take place, in a lead up to the vote, expect significant appreciation of the Euro and of the EU "system".

Old Yeller

(02/25/2002; 10:13:07 MDT - Msg ID: 70721)

Interesting perspective on the long term future,

http://www.ddc.net/ygg/inv/weekly.htm
Of government fiat currency and the will of the people to bypass the system imposed on them by suspect arbiters of true wealth;

"Over long time periods -ten to twenty years-imaginary currencies and central bank gold sales'seem like a very risky business.A critical mass of citizens can use gold to bypass the imaginary financial system,and the government is left with no ability to command the productive resources of it's citizens."

The system becomes more imaginary by the day,just starting to sink into the mainstream perceptions.That's one investment idea that intensifies the nervousness in the corridors of power.Imagine,money outside the rules and controls that have benefited the few chosen ones at a great cost to the majority.

Thanks to sharefin for the link.

Black Blade

(02/25/2002; 10:14:59 MDT - Msg ID: 70722)

Main St. loses trust in Wall St.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0225/p01s01-usec.html
Enron's fall and accounting scandals drive investors away from stock market.

Snippit:

NEW YORK - Engineer Bruce Sullivan used to invest in the stock market. But after losing money and his trust in Wall street, he's pouring his savings into remodeling his house instead. "Even if you're being responsible and trying to get legitimate information the system is screwed up," he says. "How businesses keep track of their money - it's a shell game of information."

Mr. Sullivan is not alone in feeling discouraged about Wall Street. The Enron scandal and other examples of corporate shenanigans have investors questioning whether it's worth buying stocks. After a decade in which the stock market became an unofficial bank vault for millions of Americans, many investors are now finding their confidence shaken by the fuzzy math of a few corporations.

Everyone from the heads of major companies to cab drivers are discovering that some of the companies they are socking their savings into are using accounting devices that belong more in a Hollywood movie about con men.

Black Blade: I hear that! Try looking for net earnings in many corporate 10-Q's and 10-K's anymore - once you wade through Pro Forma earnings and unrealistic corporate outlooks. "A shell game" indeed.

Black Blade

(02/25/2002; 10:21:35 MDT - Msg ID: 70723)

Closer scrutiny of earnings could hurt stocks this year

http://www.msnbc.com/news/715208.asp?0si=-
Merrill Lynch strategist is still bearish on earnings, economy

Snippit:

Feb. 24 - Investors looking for a profit recovery to propel stocks in 2002 may find themselves disappointed, just like those townspeople who strained to see the emperor's new clothes, Merrill Lynch's top strategist says.

Black Blade: Ditto!

sector

(02/25/2002; 12:13:06 MDT - Msg ID: 70724)

Another Giant Falls...Gas and Fiber Optics...and Who Knows What Else?

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin∣dle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APHpIiBX3V2lsbGlh
Williams Communications Says It May File Bankruptcy (Update1)
By John McCorry and Don Stancavish

Tulsa, Oklahoma, Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Williams Communications Group Inc., a U.S. phone-and-data network operator facing $5.2 billion in debt and a 96 percent drop in market value in the past year, may seek Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

The former unit of Williams Cos. is still talking with bank lenders and is considering bankruptcy as a way to wipe out its debt without disrupting customers, the company said in a statement distributed by PR Newswire.

Rivals such as Global Crossing Ltd. and McLeodUSA Inc. have sought bankruptcy protection because they were unable to repay debt incurred building networks. Williams Communications, which said it hasn't violated terms of $975 million in loans, had until today to give its banks a debt-reduction plan.

Williams Communications, based in Tulsa, Oklahoma, said the restructuring options it's considering would include ``substantial shareholder dilution'' and a reduction in costs of about 25 percent, including job cuts.

The company said it had $1 billion in cash as of Dec. 31, enough to finance operations through 2003.

Williams Communications shares fell 1 cent to 51 cents on Friday.

Pizz

(02/25/2002; 12:20:59 MDT - Msg ID: 70725)

(No Subject)

Go away for a week and look what happens to gold. Sheesh!

Based upon my brief scan of news and posts, Au held up pretty well considering all the down jawboning. Hedging down, BB scare tactics up. Right now the shorts should be more nervous than they were @305. We shall see.

Trapper: A couple months back Waverider (thanks again) checked a Canadian bank for me regarding a non-citizen bank account and a lock box. It's not a problem, but I made a few calls and found the same problem up there as we have here in States. Lock boxes have a waiting list and my impression was they were not going to be too happly renting out to non-citizens. I'm still looking, but it has to be done in person, and I was told by one bank that I would need an account. They also ask a lot of questions for fear of drug/money laundering.

Pizz

sector

(02/25/2002; 12:30:12 MDT - Msg ID: 70726)

CISCO...Dirty, Smelly Laundry

http://www.nypost.com/business/42208.htm
HOW CISCO BENT RULES
By CHRISTOPHER BYRON
------------------------------------------------------------------------
February 25, 2002 -- THE accounting and disclosure questions swirling around Cisco Systems Inc. just won't go away.

A little over a year ago, The Wall Street Journal published a lengthy, front-page story questioning Cisco's business practices. And just last month, Business Week published a cover story questioning the company's accounting as well.

Lately, we have added new information of our own with the disclosure that at least a dozen top officials and directors of the beleaguered Silicon Valley networking giant may have profited from their participation in various private partnerships that conducted business with Cisco.

Now comes evidence that various of these transactions - and others besides - may have violated the spirit, if not the letter, of Cisco's own conflict-of-interest guidelines.

In one 1999 transaction, a Cisco vice president named Donald Listwin appears to have pocketed as much as $21.5 million by investing in a Silicon Valley startup named Software.com while serving as an outside director on its board in seeming violation of Cisco's stated guidelines....]
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Scamsville USA...AKA: Silicon Valley

admin

(02/25/2002; 14:52:12 MDT - Msg ID: 70727)

Test

Trapper

(02/25/2002; 15:53:59 MDT - Msg ID: 70728)

Sir Pizz

Thanks for the info but keep me informed if anything developes. What area of Canada were looking? I am now close to Soo Canada just across the Bridge from Sault st. Marie Michigan. Next try would be Across the Detroit area. I also have a cop friend in Toronto who I am asking for help right now.
Anyone from Canada have any idea what it takes to get vested in the Canadian retirement system? I have an older friend who is drawing now after paying taxes in Canada from a bank account but says the system is now changed. Live small.
RJ

TownCrier

(02/25/2002; 16:11:04 MDT - Msg ID: 70729)

MK, I don't know where you find this stuff, buy you're clearly a master of the art!

http://member.usagold.com/commentaryreview.htmlFrom your News & Views page:

-------
"Derivatives are about shifting risk to the dumbest guy in the room." --Financial writer Martin Mayer
-------

On behalf of the industry (gold and financial markets), thanks for your unflagging efforts and for your emphasis on quality rather than hype.

R.

R Powell

(02/25/2002; 16:27:10 MDT - Msg ID: 70730)

Strange?

http://www.thefifthhorseman.net Isn't this a figure we often think about?
Check out where the link goes. I found this next door at gold-eagle.
Rich

TownCrier

(02/25/2002; 16:47:28 MDT - Msg ID: 70731)

The price of complacency...

http://cchart.yimg.com/2y?XAUARS=X... the new price of gold in Argentine pesos. Flat forever, then doubled in a flash. (link above shows 2-year price chart of the peso-price of gold)

With capital controls and official coversion of dollar-based accounts to peso accounts, a purchase of gold would have been the easiest way to preserve family wealth and purchasing power. Some did, others cried.

R.

Pizz

(02/25/2002; 16:54:15 MDT - Msg ID: 70732)

Trapper

I'm in Seattle area about 170 miles south of Vancouver BC.

I'll keep you posted, since I have same concerns as you.

I'm also going to do some more reseach on bullion coins. Since Maples are Canadian legal tender, I'd say the US would have a pretty hard time confiscating Maples. It would also make sence that they would have a hard time keeping you from taking $50.00 Canadian in the form a a 1 oz maple into Canada. The Canadians sure don't care, and the last time I crossed the Border into Canada, the US didn't even care, because it was Canadian Customs checking what was coming in, and US Customs on the return checking incoming to US.

kludge

(02/25/2002; 17:29:33 MDT - Msg ID: 70733)

Sir Belgian

This is my problem with believing conspiracy theories, they're short on facts and long on extrapolation. They cite much of the speculation that is the basis of the theory, in support of the theory. They speak to a higher truth:

"POG went a ballistic x 25 and was stopped by all means!"
"Billions of non US people are sweating under medieval conditions to make this Big Lie survive !"
"Physical Gold in Possession will and shall expose this decades old irrational play"
"Massive falsifications can live a long life until suddenly the BIG LIE is exposed"

I mean no offense, guess it wouldn't be a conspiracy otherwise.

So I offer just some of what is known about gold and oil between 1971-2002, and perhaps a simpler explanation?

Oil:
Texas Railroad Commission sets proration at 100%
Yom Kippur war/arab oil embargo
North Sea and Alaska come online
Oil worker strike in Iran
Shah of Iran ousted
Khomeni/hostage crisis
Iran invades Iraq
Pres. Carter does away with oil price controls
Gulf War
Kuwait's oil fields burn
Iraq sanctions

Gold:
No interest or dividends
Seen as a "safe haven" by most investors
PM funds often not available in 401k's
Dow went from 868 -> 9,968, not good for safe havens?

Anybody you know add insulation to their house, buy a more energy efficient fridge/AC/dryer, or buy a compact car based on the rising price of oil in the '70's early '80's? OPEC learned a lesson then: reduce the flow, drive up prices, demand decreases. Did anyone remove that extra insulation when the POO fell? If they didn't (and who would?), then OPEC lost some future sales. They're not foolish, why drive customers to other sources of energy - which they did before changing course:

(hope this posts properly)
Energy Consumption by year in the US (%), top three:
------------------------------------------
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981
=================================

Oil 48.6 48.5 47.4 45 43
Nat. Gas 25.6 25.4 25.4 26.8 27
Coal 18.6 18.1 19.5 20.5 22

Quadrillion
BTU's imported 20.1 19.3 19.6 16 14
(net)

Would oil producing countries rather we drive trucks and SUV's, or 1.2 liter compacts? What's the #1 reason Americans would switch to smaller, more fuel efficient cars in droves? The POO rising. What would make Congress force the auto-makers to build more fuel efficient cars quickly? The POO rising. What would encourage oil exploration in the oil customer's country? The POO rising.

OPEC is a cartel, comparing the cost of something controlled by a cartel may not yield valid comparisons. Does DeBeers charge a fair price for diamonds, or a price the market will bear?

And so that no one accuses me of having shorted gold - if I'm right, you lose nothing and your wealth is safe. If I'm wrong, guess we're all rich.

Mr Gresham

(02/25/2002; 18:19:19 MDT - Msg ID: 70734)

Kludge

"I mean no offense, guess it wouldn't be a conspiracy otherwise."

Keep it up. It wouldn't be a discussion otherwise.

There is a conventional view, and a contrarian few, or three, or four. Like Sherlock, we put a picture together, and then we have to wait for events to bear it out. No one is coming forward in the next chapter to tell us "Bingo, boys! You sussed us out on that one. Go to the head of the class."

We have to factor the conventional, the contrarian, and the conspiracy views into our own risk/reward calculations. Obviously, you arrive at the same investment decisions, for differing reasons, so it isn't vital for us to agree, persuade, or be persuaded of a different viewpoint.

For many of us, it is part of an interesting story, beyond our investments. When you probe it with us, you join in the adventure of learning about that story.

FOA's "oil for gold" and "support of the dollar" from 1980 onward theories require substantiation (IMO) for us to voice them confidently to others away from this forum. We haven't identified the characters, dates, and deeds that fill in those pictures.

They are contrary to most conventional economic logic, so it's easy to poke at them from that standpoint. That's where we all came from, too, BEFORE we read those new ideas.

Yes -- sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. But what if, one time, it isn't? Now wouldn't that be a story!

Black Blade

(02/25/2002; 19:00:38 MDT - Msg ID: 70735)

Monday's Stock Market Round-Up - Puplava

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:

World of Make Believe We live in a world of make believe. Today many of the things you hear and read aren't what they appear to be, but what people want them to be. The world of make believe runs all the way from Washington to Wall Street. Many of the economic and earnings reports bare no resemblance to the real world -- whether it is the CPI, productivity figures, the unemployment rate, or the GDP figures. They are statistically manipulated to produce a certain outcome. The same holds true on Wall Street where we now have numbers that no longer reflect the bottom line. There are many numbers bandied about in press releases, on financial news stations, and spoken as gospel by analysts and anchors. However, we no longer have a reference point on which to value those numbers because the standards and benchmarks for measuring them keep changing. Instead, what we hear reported is that a certain company met, beat or exceeded expectations.

Black Blade: Good article tells it like it is. Speaking of fanstasy accounting and outright fraud, tomorrow Congress gets another chance at the "Skilling Grilling" as the woes of Enron unfold. The shredder teams and accountants of Enron and Arthur Andersen will have much to explain as the charges look to be fraud on a massive scale and many accountants may be headed for prison. Rumors are that Qwest Communications and Williams Communications could be the next to fall with possible accounting scandals as well. "Interesting Times"

slingshot

(02/25/2002; 19:03:59 MDT - Msg ID: 70736)

Kludge Msg# 70733

Gold. Why is every government after it?I for one have not put all the pieces to the puzzle together as to why gold is behaving like it is. Conspiracy here and conspiracy there, and never the two will meet. Anyhow after reading your post I just had to wonder after any major find of gold the government wants its cut. I assume the percentage is more than usual as it would pertain to anything else. Examples. When they found the Atocha. The government laid claim with a few others. There is a family who found a large amount of gold near White Sands and the government found it also and carted it away . Leaving the family to sue. The Russians government has put claim on gold
which was aboard a Russian warship sank in WW2 in international waters. What happened to salvage rights. In Bermuda if you find a wreck it is covered by a multitude of laws and you end up with hardly nothing.
So how much is gold worth? AS to how much it will rise. Why go to all the trouble of all these laws if it is not worth anything. Now or in the future. Actually they seem to just want it neither caring what it is worth or how much it will rise. If you drop one hundred gold eagles on a table in front of your friends, would they first ask what it is worth
or how much will it be worth? Maybe,"Where did you get all that?". This post may not go along with your post. Just got me thinking on a tangent.

Guess I will eat a doughnut and think up some more weird stuff.

Slingshot

Guided

(02/25/2002; 20:35:20 MDT - Msg ID: 70737)

Gold and Silver in HisStory

The question was asked; Why do men and governments seek after gold? Because man is man and that's HisStory. In Daniel chapter 11, the prohpecy of a global ruler is told that will have control of the world's gold and silver just prior to the end of HisStory. So indeed, there will be more conspiracies and wars over gold and silver leading up to this time only God knows. At this point now in HisStory, I think we are on the threshold of one of those interesting times where man's plan for gold and silver don't work out as envisioned and the pieces will fall where He wills.

slingshot

(02/25/2002; 20:36:43 MDT - Msg ID: 70738)

Sussex Found

Got Gold Onboard?Alright! They found another shipwreck with lots of gold onboard. First priority is to retrieve the cannon. Right!
Drop in the gold price.
Slingshot

White Rose

(02/25/2002; 20:45:22 MDT - Msg ID: 70739)

Bill Murphy says German Bank has been buying, not selling

This is from Le Metropole Cafe web site:

After Bundesbank Gold Story, DEUTSCHE BANK TURNS BIG BUYER!

A fierce battle was waged the last 24 hours between gold bulls and bears right above $290 spot,
which has been a key technical level for many years. As reported recently and often, The Gold
Cartel has thrust gold back every time that level has been breached to the upside for 3 1/2 years
now.

Of special interest this time is that the specs are mostly long below $290. If the cabal wins again
(taking gold below $290 on a close basis), many of these black box tech specs will turn sellers and
prolong the inevitable gold market bull move.

Gunning for the specs, the Gold Cartel forces were loaded for bear today and were close to
winning the day when Deutsche Bank showed up as a big buyer right above $290. Word to me was
they could not buy enough at their price levels in the futures pits so they called upstairs and began
buying in the physical market.

This may be MOST significant. Deutsche Bank is named in Reg Howe's Complaint and I used to
hear about them all the time on the sell side along with Goldman Sachs and Chase. See this
reading from Reg Howe's lawsuit:

"On May 7, 1999, just as gold threatened to surge over $300/ounce in response to new doubts
whether the proposed IMF gold sales would go forward, the British announced that the Bank of
England, on behalf of the Exchange Equalisation Account in the British Treasury, would sell 415
tonnes of gold in a series of public auctions. Although this announcement came with no warning
and was completely unexpected by most, the previous evening Bill Murphy of GATA reported in
his Midas column at Le Metropole Cafe: "Deutsche Bank's bullion desk is calling their clients
saying that the gold market is stopping at $290."

On May 10, 2000 GATA presented its "Gold Derivative Banking Crisis" document to the Speaker
of the House, Dennis Hastert. Several of the GATA army made sure copies were sent to the
Bundesbank, etc. Twenty thousand copies were downloaded from the www.GATA.org web site.

Then, on August 25 Germany's premier financial business newspaper, Frankfurter Algemeigne
Zeitung, surprisingly published two articles in its paper about the GATA document. They were
very blunt, got to the heart of GATA's concerns and complimented the authors. Both articles were
most unusual in that there were no contrasting rebuttals.

See Matisse Table: 8/31/00

8/31 - Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Articles

It was clear to some very savvy people that some higher ups in the Bundesbank planted the
articles to warn Deutsche Bank about their short gold positions. We had heard for some time
about a rift at the Bundesbank about gold between the young turks (anti-gold) and the old guard
(pro-gold).

Following the articles in FAZ, I cannot recall hearing anything about Deutsche Bank on the
Comex, until TODAY. Not that they have not been there, just that their name was never brought
to my attention again, unlike Goldman Sachs, which has been a cabal gold seller at all critical
times. In addition, Deutsche Bank has reduced their gold derivative positions since the FAZ stories
were published.

Then out of the blue last week, the gold world is presented with the strange, Bloomberg
Bundesbank gold story � reminiscent of the Russian gold selling rumor circulated by J. P. Morgan
Chase in May 2001. Both stories were planted to generate gold selling by frightening gold longs
that the central banks were going to sell their gold. Both planted stories worked.

The Bundesbank story, however, has only worked to a very modest degree as gold has only
dropped $6-$7 so far. Why? I suspect it is because the gold fraud is about to end. Perhaps, the
Germans want out while the getting out is good and figured the best way to cover massive gold
short positions was to generate a bogus central bank selling story and then start buying.

The German bankers cannot be THAT dumb. They must want to cover as many gold shorts as
possible before disaster rules the gold day, a day that is now inevitable. If the Germans have lent
out as much gold as we think they have, they need to get it back or declare the scam to their
citizens. To buy any kind of size at decent prices the Germans need to buy into a falling market. If
this anecdotal hypothesis is right, we will see them on the buy side some more. My guess is they
have a huge amount of buying to do.

If that is the case, the only question may be whether they will be buying at $285- $292, or perhaps
$302 to $307.

It would appear we are witnessing the first visible signs of a disintegrating Gold Cartel. One of
their rats could be leaving their sinking ship. We shall see, but today's development may be a gold
milestone. It bears close scrutiny.

My short-term technical analysis for gold remains intact. A close below $290 will bring on massive
spec selling. A close above $296 should mean curtains for The Gold Cartel. Two closes above $305
and gold should trade $350 to $400 within weeks. The tension builds.

Waverider

(02/25/2002; 22:51:26 MDT - Msg ID: 70740)

Argentina's coffers are running dry

http://www.iht.com/articles/49307.htmlSnippit:
"The government has announced that it will be unable to fully pay the monthly salaries of more than half a million government employees that are due this week, citing a sharp drop in tax revenue as a result of the worsening economic crisis.

Duhalde's decision has infuriated government employees and civic groups leading street protests against austerity measures, not only because of its economic impact but also its timing. The announcement came just days after he increased his own salary and those of other top officials by 13 percent, to the maximum permitted by law, $1,500 a month."

Waverider: It sounds as though Argentina is very close to the breaking point. How long will it be before we see total anarchy there? One week...two...maybe days...

Waverider

(02/26/2002; 00:55:04 MDT - Msg ID: 70741)

Tokyo stocks end down, banks drop ahead of package

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020226/t37624_1.htmlSnippit:
"Tokyo stocks closed lower on Tuesday, with Mizuho Holdings Inc and other top banks sold on expectations the government's anti-deflation plan due out on Wednesday will skirt the key issue of shoring up the financial system with public funds.

A draft of the anti-deflation package obtained by Reuters on Tuesday said the government would take all necessary steps, including capital reinforcement of the banks, if the threat of a financial crisis emerged.

But that only reiterates the official line and analysts warned that the government was just putting off to another day the thorny issue of using taxpayers' money to recapitalise banks so they can write off a mountain of bad loans.

The benchmark Nikkei average lost 0.91 percent or 93.84 points to 10,202.63, while the capital-weighted TOPIX index (^TOPX - news) gave up 0.33 percent or 3.30 points to 983.82.

Mizuho Holdings, the world's biggest bank by assets, dropped 4.22 percent to 227,000 yen, leading the sector subindex down 1.60 percent after a three-day rally during which it gained 3.7 percent."

Belgian

(02/26/2002; 02:37:58 MDT - Msg ID: 70742)

@ Kludge # 70733

It is worse than a simple "conspiracy" ! Much worse.
It is *SYSTEMIC* detoriation that is confusing you/me and many others. Systemic detoriation with fiat money decomposition at its basis. You want "facts". Than tell me how fast and by how much the confetti-cosmos is growing !
It is from this unstoppable systemic mis-behavior that extrapolations on future Gold valuations are made.
Twice as much derivatives (100 trillion $) on total financials, but 50 times (fifty) more derivatives on Gold !!!
(LBMA 500 tonnes paper (ATH=1.200 t) for 10 tonnes of Physical).
This is evidence (fact) on detoriating currencies. Mountains of confetti are distrusted by their holders and need permanent insurance ! And this has been systemically funneled into paper gold contracts ! NOT PHYSICAL !

Now, fine Knight Kludge, do you think that this currency decomposition will ever stop and rejuvenile into a strong and healthy corpus ? Don't wait for the answer !!!

All facts you are summing are only artefacts and absolute minor blips. The systemic (!!!) currency-rot is the drama we are playing in. Take the word "DRAMA" literally !
These Gold Giants, TG is talking about, take part in this paper drama, but with one slight little difference : THEY KEEP ON ACCUMULATING PHYSICAL GOLD IN POSSESSION !!!
Take a flight to the Arabian Dubai's and you will instantly "feel" and "see", what and who these Gold Giants are. There are much more of these Giants out there but remain in-visible.

BTW : This week, I succeeded in introducing FOA/A theories into Belgian central bank circles. Not as insignificant as might seem at first sight !? Yes, Sir...I know...premature extrapolations (smile).

GoldnSilver2002

(02/26/2002; 04:35:34 MDT - Msg ID: 70743)

from the mouth of babes

Guys im no financial expert but it came to me in a flash of light!Why would german Brundebank threaten to sell gold,when under the washington agreement they cant until at least 2004?Because its a bluff!And why bluff?Because all the other banks have run out of gold!The recovery should be led by the consumer,which means one more terrorist attack and poof,no recovery.What of the inevitable demise of japan?Why wont japan do anything?Because a)its so bad they cant
or b)Bush promised to fix it.And what of JP Morgans exposure to trillions in gold derivatives?The cracks are showing..its only a matter of time now.Months not years,and if i can figure this out,others will too.Pass the word the cabal is cracking and resorting smoke and mirrors.If Brundebank cant produce any gold then truly they are clutching at straws.

Jin-Yin

(02/26/2002; 06:48:19 MDT - Msg ID: 70744)

Housing Bubble

Hello all,

I was thinking about the current bubble in the housing market and the stupidity of taking loans out on one's home to sustain one's spending habits. Trying to internalize the whole process and explain the consequences of these actions in the future to family members was difficult in the past. Now I think I have a better grasp of the situation and would like to air it out with any comments welcomed.

First J6P sees his paper profits deteriorating in the markets, all the while hoping that it will recover to where it was before the top and then hopefully extend forever into the future making us all rich. Back to reality. He now needs that same fix that was the euphoria of the late 90s, so he does something completely ridiculous and takes money out against his home.

All seems to be in order today. To think about tomorrow is too painful because Joe's reasoning mind has been, for all intent and purposes, effectively cut off by a federally funded education and the media, his surrogate left brain attachment with direct control of his emotional brain. Homo sap-iens as seen now in the wild.

Looking forward one could see the market for homes deflating due to individual bankruptcies and the subsequent need of banks to off load homes. This would then bring property values back to reality. If Joe's home is worth $150,000 now and he still owes $80,000 on it while at the same time taking a home equity loan out for a measly $20,000, where will that leave him in the future if the housing market tanks? Well, let's say that the housing bubble deflates and takes 50% off current prices, just as the stock markets have done and are now in the process of doing.

Joe's house is now worth $75,000 on the market and he now owes the bank $100,000 on a house that is worth about as much as his down payment and monthly payments over the years before the home loan. Imagine that. Owing more than your house is worth. Is this what is meant by negative equity?

I bought a second hand 250cc off road Yamaha and had to get it fixed because it was becoming too hard if not impossible to start. Good exercise though. The nightmare shop charged me about as much as the bike cost, to get it fixed. They never gave me quotes on the prices for parts but rather fixed it and then quoted to my surprise and horror. To save the hassle of paying out the shop and then selling the bike once I left the area, I deferred this ball and chain to the shop owners.

This is comparing apples to oranges but the feeling may be similar. For me it was pure angst and a sense of helplessness.

Just thinking out loud.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.

(02/26/2002; 07:02:42 MDT - Msg ID: 70745)

Hard Assets... Easy Access! Special selections online; anything by phone.

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

U.S. Liberty $10 Eagle
$10 Liberty

A "Premium" Opportunity

Call Centennial for details, or order online.
1-800-869-5115

TownCrier

(02/26/2002; 07:22:11 MDT - Msg ID: 70746)

Imagine how much more gold India would consume if customers received the quantity they paid for

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1842000/1842083.stmDue to a jewelry scam, Indians have been buying gold by the tonnes, but have only been receiving gold by the pounds in exchange for their hard-earned dollars. The new hallmarking program should be good for gold.

Details from the BBC article:
-------------
HEADLINE: India's gold jewellery rip-off

Most gold jewellery advertised in India as 22-carat is of a lesser quality, a survey by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) has revealed.

The BIS found over 80% of the shops surveyed were passing off anything between 13.5 and 18 carats as 22-carat gold.

Using a sample of fifteen shops in each city, the BIS found only 14 of the 120 sold gold as advertised.

India is the world's largest market for gold, consuming 855 tonnes a year, 95% of which is used for jewellery...the most common gift at weddings, and is part of the bride's dowry, especially in rural India, where parents believe the metal will give daughters some financial security.
----------------------

Again, if the Indians start receiving full value for their money rather than receiving heaps of scrap alloy, the resulting increase in physical offtake from the world gold market would be... significant.

R.

TownCrier

(02/26/2002; 07:24:35 MDT - Msg ID: 70747)

Make that, "hard-earned rupees"!

:-)
R.

Waverider

(02/26/2002; 08:08:19 MDT - Msg ID: 70748)

British wreck off Gibraltar may hold �2.5bn of gold

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,3604,658149,00.htmlSnippit:
"HMS Sussex, an 80 gun ship of the line, is believed to have had on board up to 10 tons of gold when it sank in a storm in 1694. After a seven year search, a US firm, Odyssey Marine Exploration, believes it has found it half a mile down.

HMS Sussex was on a secret mission taking gold and silver coins to the Duke of Savoy to finance him as an ally against Louis XIV in the Nine Years War against France. The vessel was Admiral Sir Francis Wheeler's flagship for a fleet of 40 warships and 166 merchant ships.

Speculation suggests the wreck may hold coins and artifacts worth up to �2.5bn. But how the spoils of any salvage would be divided is the subject of discussions, according to the MoD; it said that, if the wreck were the Sussex, any gold would belong to the crown."

Waverider: Quite fascinating from an historical and marine archeological perspective. A Great Day to All!

Cavan Man

(02/26/2002; 08:17:13 MDT - Msg ID: 70749)

POG

What's up with spot?

Waverider

(02/26/2002; 08:19:24 MDT - Msg ID: 70750)

POG

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.htmlPOG up $4.10 to $296.50 and shares on the move this am. Cheers!

A Canadian

(02/26/2002; 08:20:01 MDT - Msg ID: 70751)

@ CARAVAN MAN

SPOT IS VERY ANGRY!

RobotGuy

(02/26/2002; 08:34:08 MDT - Msg ID: 70752)

SPOT

I wuz gunna say somethin bout spot, but,... looks like y'all beat me to it!!!

Cheers, hope it keeps movin!!

RobotGuy

(02/26/2002; 08:45:29 MDT - Msg ID: 70753)

@Jin-Yin

Welcome! I don't recall ever seeing a post by you, but I'm sure everyone here extends a warm welcome to the greatest forum to hit the internet!

B.T.W.---- Randy, thank you for all your hard work keeping this forum rollin'!!

Mr Gresham

(02/26/2002; 08:46:22 MDT - Msg ID: 70754)

Love that INO chart!

Little Spikester falling out of his cradle this A.M. -- where's the Nanny?

(02/26/2002; 08:49:14 MDT - Msg ID: 70755)

(No Subject)

Govt. denies rumor that troops are in Iraq. Broke at the same time as the consumer confidence numbers.

G$

RobotGuy

(02/26/2002; 08:50:35 MDT - Msg ID: 70756)

Canuck buck

I see our dollar is going whacko again. Why can't anybody settle that damn thing down?

Cavan Man

(02/26/2002; 09:11:24 MDT - Msg ID: 70757)

What he said....

"World equity markets are like a pie crust stretched across the roof of a volcano."

richard640

RobotGuy

(02/26/2002; 09:56:52 MDT - Msg ID: 70758)

It's Golden, but a little off topic...

There's something I must say regarding the Olympics, and the pairs competition. I haven't heard discussion of this, but I think it should be said. Since the Canadian figure skating pair received gold after scandal, I think it would have been appropriate that the skaters that received bronze should have been given a silver, and the ones who were in fourth should have received bronze. ALL SKATERS WERE AFFECTED BY THE SAME SCANDAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!

In all fairness, why did this not happen??

Gimme Shelter

(02/26/2002; 10:21:23 MDT - Msg ID: 70759)

Where is all of the wealth going too?

Good afternoon all.
So as we all continue to ponder these ongoings, being conspiratorial, or real, who knows.
For the first time in the history of man, we are able to monitor the actions and reactions of our banker politicians and corporate scoundrels. Does this give us an edge?
But where is all of the wealth going when mom and pop lose it through the confiscations that are happening. (Inflation, Stock Markets, Real Estate market collapse, etc.)
Lets look a little bit at some of the reports.
The magazine insight on the News reports that the Pentagon is afoul in their accounting and can not find 1.1 Trillion dollars??? What? Summer 2001.
Then the week after September 11, the market slides and mom and pop investors are treated to a 1.8 Trillion dollar loss.
Countries around the world are being attacked by the OECD and the FATF. These agencies are stealing accounts under the guise of money laundering.
So when we look at 2.9 trillion that is taken, where does it go?
Who is hoarding all of this wealth as it is being stolen from the taxpayers.
Is there any other type of government money, besides taxpayer mooney?
Why when the Bill of Rights continues to be attacked, do we Americans not revolt?
Are we revolting by education, on economics and wealth preservation?
Will the internet be the tool that slays the Goliath?
The internet backbone providers are not as privately owned as we think.
If the Federal Government owned 48% of GDP prior to 9-11-01, what is it now? Is the Federal Government holding majority shares in the industries we are concerned about like Energy, Telecom, Transportation?
Can these major shareholders force companies to shut off our tool?
Can their spacestation lead a roll in continueing the control of the populace through deceit?
Are we nieve to think that this whole play with the currencies is not a plan for further wealth redistribution as the fiats collapse?
Even the mighty Rome fell when they had no gold left. It took them 400+ years.
Are these the reasons that many countries around the world have whole Expatriot communitties for the people who are choosing to run from the powers to be, for a life of financial privacy?
Lots of curiosity seems to be the tone of the year so far.
How long can the powers deflect our Who, What, Where, When and Why questions?
When will this litigouse atrocity cave in under its own system?

sector

(02/26/2002; 10:27:04 MDT - Msg ID: 70760)

Bank Reform? In Japan? Really?....Upon Further Review...Nope.

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3IYDV25YC&live=true&tagid=IXLI0L9Z1BC
Tokyo ends down as bank fund hopes fade
By Natalie Jacob-Scharli in Tokyo
Published: February 26 2002 01:42 | Last Updated: February 26 2002 08:18

Comments from government figures that an injection of public funds into the banking system may not be appropriate at present and might not be included in the anti-deflation package sent Tokyo shares down on Tuesday.

The Nikkei 225 ended 93.84 lower, or 0.9 per cent, at 10,202.63, while the broader Topix index finished 3.30 down, or 0.3 per cent, at 983.82.

The market had been encouraged by hopes the government's anti-deflation package, to be announced on Wednesday, would include a strategy to deal with the disposal of banks' bad loans, but banking stocks weakened on indications the government might not be taking any such action.

"The market was disappointed by news the government might not inject money into the banks and the reaction (was) not positive," said Hamish Ross, head of trading at Instinet. "The government's credibility is going down the toilet. There are rumours there may be further funds going to Daiei yet there aren't funds for banks."

Masajuro Shiokawa, the finance minister, said earlier the government would inject funds into the troubled banking sector if it was deemed necessary but that he didn't think the situation merited any such move yet.

Meanwhile, Hakuo Yanagisawa, financial services minister, said he wasn't considering taking measures to deal with bad loans in the package beyond an already announced plan to disclose the results of special inspections of big banks.

Instead, the draft package would call for the Bank of Japan to take bold monetary policy action to combat deflation. The BoJ is due to meet on Thursday and investors are eager to see whether it will further ease its already-loose monetary policy in a bid to help the government achieve its goal of stemming a fall in prices.

++++++++++++++++++

One can only speculate at the "Bold Monetary Policy" to be unveiled tomorrow.
Let's see...shaft the elderly out of their savings to bailout the banks?

Gold bugs can only hope this is the new direction because if it IS, then the rest of the elderly Japanese $620 Billion in savings will pop right into gold.

BTW on Friday Mitsui and Sumitomo [Perennial TOCOM gold shorters] went long across the maturity range. This, a day before Deutsche Bank starts buying on the COMEX.

Things are getting interesting.

sector

(02/26/2002; 10:32:37 MDT - Msg ID: 70761)

Yen at 134.58 to the dollar

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/chart.cgi?s=CME_JYH2&v=s&w=5&t=f&a=1The above fast-loading chart reveals a nice downward spike in the yen which is actually...a nice upward spike in yen denominated gold...which is to be added to the already nice upward spike in dollar denominated gold.

Mr Gresham

(02/26/2002; 11:04:30 MDT - Msg ID: 70762)

Monetization

http://216.46.231.211/credit.htmJin-Yin's post on Housing Bubble got me thinking on the Fed's promised or potential monetization of housing finance, specifically the Fannie/Freddie debt instruments that form the major part of supporting the dollar bubble. (recycling trade deficit dollars from Europe & elsewhere -- see Doug Noland link above.)

When the Fed in the near future "prints" the money to buy the GSE debt securities, it is not to help you make your mortgage payments, or even to support the current inflated house prices. Nice if it could be done, but in a general deflationary default collapse, the money will be made available for "special purposes" only. To buy the already-issued debt securities in the marketplace, making those current lenders whole at least dollar-wise. These are the institutions that have done the Fed's handiwork these past years and they will be insulated from shock if possible.

New securities issuance?, well that's another question. And if it were known that these were NOT insulated against default, then would Fannie/Freddie still be in the mortgage purchase business, and would rates still be low enough to support this market? In other words, looks like one of those markets that could turn on a discontinuous dime...

Cavan Man

(02/26/2002; 11:50:51 MDT - Msg ID: 70763)

@sector

RE: Deutsche BankI heard a report of this. Do you have a link to an official source? Also, isn't it a little odd for DB to be buying at the Comex betting window? TIA

Black Blade

(02/26/2002; 13:34:02 MDT - Msg ID: 70764)

Gold Gains and US Dollar Falls

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
Gold supposedly rsoe on false rumors of a US invasion in Iraq today. Commentators were a bit upset that this helped Gold, yet there was no outcry over false rumors such as that of the Reich's bank wishing to sell Gold. I don't feel sorry for these people one bit. Consumer confidence is waning once again. Still, insolvent Japanese banks can't count on a government bailout and so shares of Japanese banks sank. It could get a bit interesting in Japan tonight and maybe Gold will continue to rally.

Overall, the US dollar sank to a mere 0.0033568 ounces of Gold.

- Black Blade

RobotGuy

(02/26/2002; 13:43:48 MDT - Msg ID: 70765)

@BlackBlade---A question for you

I can't figure out how the value of the U.S. dollar could be determined with reference to other currencies. When I speak of the value of the CDN$ it is in reference to the U.S.$ and so it is with many currencies. Since everyone's currency sort of 'floats', how is it that you determine where the U.S.$ is, I mean what is it you refer to?

Cavan Man

(02/26/2002; 14:11:29 MDT - Msg ID: 70766)

History of Money

Have just researched a brief presentation to a 2nd grade class using the Davies' material.

The history of money is marked by three prominent features:

1.Change
2.Corruption
3.Calamity

The gold standard(s) all failed for various reasons as did their silver counterparts and bi-metallic hybrids. It is likely and probable we have been witnessing the failure of the current "system" since about 1980-82.

The Euro model is an innovation; though last in a long line of monetary invention(s). The single, compelling reason for its usage IMHO is the free floating (market) price of gold allowing gold to be used as a store of value and a defense against debasement of the realm's coin. IMHO, this is a practical, rational model well-grounded in historical monetary perspective that will work. With only a modicum of money's history; one cannot help but believe that change is upon us. Doing my homework.....CM

sector

(02/26/2002; 14:25:58 MDT - Msg ID: 70767)

@CavenMan: Japan Shorters Whacked...Strong Rumor about DB Buying Heavy at COMEX...

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3YNM646YC&live=true&tagid=IXLI0L9Z1BC...because they can't GET any elsewhere.
Bill Murphy has reliable sources with more to come this PM at the cafe.
It may be big. It may involve a cabal [DB] member exiting and going long. Meanwhile...back at the Far Eastern Ranch:
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Japanese FSA clamps down on short-selling
By Michiyo Nakamoto in Tokyo
Published: February 26 2002 19:31 | Last Updated: February 26 2002 20:07

Japan's financial regulator is to penalise Cr�dit Lyonnais and Bear Stearns, and order stricter compliance at Deutsche Securities and Nikko Salomon Smith Barney, for violating short-selling rules.

The Financial Services Agency has ordered Cr�dit Lyonnais to suspend trading on its own account and on commissioned business by affiliated companies for two weeks, beginning on Wednesday.

It has told Bear Stearns to stop broking for affiliated companies on stock trading for a week, and to suspend securities businesses with affiliated companies for two weeks.

Deutsche Securities and NSSB were not penalised, but all four were ordered to strengthen internal control systems and secure strict compliance with the rules. Each of the four firms said they accepted the FSA decision and planned to improve compliance.

The FSA move comes amid calls from Japanese government leaders to clamp down on short-selling, which they blame for falling share prices.

Masajuro Shiokawa, finance minister, said this month that Japan had become "a gambling den", where short-selling was causing sharp declines in share prices.

Most observers say the stock market's decline owes much to poor corporate performance, hefty debts, huge non-performing loans at the banks and a grim economic outlook.
++++++++++++++++++++
Funny... the FSA looks the other way when Miysui, Sumitomo and Mitsubichi hold massive short open interest postiions in gold. Geeze...could there be collusion on the TOCOM?

Cavan Man

(02/26/2002; 15:28:06 MDT - Msg ID: 70768)

Hey sector

Thanks!

R Powell

(02/26/2002; 15:35:29 MDT - Msg ID: 70769)

Short selling/ sector

Those suffering from declining stock prices often tend to blame the short sellers. Apparently the Japanese have now found them to be convenient scapegoats again.
Jesse Livermore was heavily short stocks just before the panic of 1907. According to his thinly disguised autobiography, the original J.P. Morgan asked him, by messenger, to ease off as the market was crumbling. Jesse took his profit by buying back his shorts and then proceeded to go long.
The article you posted does not state what rules these brokers were accused of breaking. Other than not shorting on downticks, what shorting rules are there for stocks?
*****
I don't subscribe to the invasion rumor sending POG higher today as POG held strong right up to Comex close. What other reasons are being offered?
Thanks
Rich

TownCrier

(02/26/2002; 15:51:28 MDT - Msg ID: 70770)

Cavan Man (msg#: 70766)

Along with Belgian and a handful of others I've seen here, you are light years ahead of the pack in this understanding you've articulated in that brief post. Stand proud.

Steady on, mate.

--Randy

Black Blade

(02/26/2002; 16:19:33 MDT - Msg ID: 70771)

Robotguy

http://www.xe.com/ucc/
At the link is a good currency converter - it also will calculate currency exchange with Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium. How the exchanges determine the value of such nebulous concepts as paper currency among all currencies (including PMs) is for far greater minds than me. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Joepmbull

(02/26/2002; 16:33:43 MDT - Msg ID: 70772)

Rumor/news about US troops in Iraq

Lets get the words correct. Rumor was "US has troops in Iraq" It was not "US invasion of Iraq". I would be very surprised if US did NOT have troops (special forces) in Iraq. War on terrorism requires that as first step.

Waverider

(02/26/2002; 16:49:37 MDT - Msg ID: 70773)

Black Blade

I think you're having us on here...it looks to me that all it is is 1.00US divided by the spot price of Gold. What's the purpose though...why not just go with the spot price? Cheers,
Waverider

sector

(02/26/2002; 17:19:51 MDT - Msg ID: 70774)

POG Jumped today...

...Because a very large buyer [possibly from Deutsche Bank] "Bought the COMEX floor and then went upstairs to the physical desk and bought them the rest of the day", according to a reliable source.

The usual floor noise about "invasion" or whatever they dream up is BS.

Not that there won't BE an invasion of Iraq this year...which should turn the oils markets upside down. Possibly this is explanation for the US purchase of additional SPR stocks lately.

The cabal may be breaking if one of their members turns on them. This is not too extreme to contemplate since the Germans [If they are the one] have a gold swap marker for 1700 tonnes of West Point gold and O'Neill may not want to give it back just yet.

What was Clinton's and Rubin's Error in starting the manipulation scam? Never assume honor among thieves.

BTW Rubin has his fanny in a wringer over e-mails from HIS Citibank derivatives desk to the Allied Irish []$700 Million blow-up] rogue trader...they were in it together it seems.

It just keeps getting better...even on the 6PM NBC News Skilling goes toe to toe with Watkins and gets smashed...there is no end to the arrogance at Skilling's level.

Black Blade

(02/26/2002; 17:32:21 MDT - Msg ID: 70775)

Waverider - POG and Valuation

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals
Right now the POG is about to pop through $300/oz again. I guess the reason that I value the US Dollar by Gold ounces is that it seems to make more sense. And why not? We hear the drivel that Gold has been in a bear market for over 20 years. I think not. Gold has only been in a bear market since 1996. It had a very brief spike above $850 in 1980 based on the "Triple Whammy" of Iranian Revolution with taking of American hostages from the US embassy, The Invasion Of Afghanistan by Soviets, and Double Didgit Inflation. One could also add an inept US President for the previous four years as well.

Better yet, instead of focussing on Gold bear markets, why not focus on the 70 year bear market for the US Dollar. Over 70 years ago the US Dollar was valued at about 0.05 ounces per US Dollar. Today (actually right now) it stands at about 0.0033388 ounces of Gold. Clearly the US Dollar has been in a downtrend or a Bear MArket for well over 70 years. Gold has outperformed the US Dollar by a substantial amount over that extended period. All this in spite of the US government's best efforts to maintain a "Strong Dollar Policy". Hmmm...

Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(02/26/2002; 18:07:20 MDT - Msg ID: 70776)

Nikkei Soaring Tonight

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
The Nikkei has been on a tear lately, however, much of this appears to be related to rules against shorting stocks in Japan. Apparently several banks are being forced to pay heavy fines for playing fast and loose with rules that prohibit some short sales. There is also the possibility that Japanese are yanking Yen outta banks and going for the Nikkei in a desperate hope to find some - any safe haven from insolvent banks.

- Black Blade

Cavan Man

(02/26/2002; 18:12:22 MDT - Msg ID: 70777)

@sector

Skilling's too clever by half.He said he could not remember a $5.6mm bonus paid last year or year before. He's taking the Hillary Clinton defense: "I don't recall".

Cavan Man

(02/26/2002; 18:14:25 MDT - Msg ID: 70778)

@sector

How do you like oil if the ME blows? The President was out on the hustings the last couple of days talking fuel cells and asking for a "quick passage" of his energy bill. I think the sand is running out in the hourglass.

Black Blade

(02/26/2002; 18:42:05 MDT - Msg ID: 70779)

Gold Gets Slapped Down in Asia

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
Apparently the Asians don't want Gold to break through $300. A very steep drop on the charts.

uponroof

(02/26/2002; 18:46:25 MDT - Msg ID: 70780)

Jimmy Rogers..."Find out what Central Banks are Doing and do the Opposite"

http://www.grantsinvestor.com/fleck/fleck.htmlHi guys,

Sure is nice to see the POG finding 'controlled balance' at 300+-.....MORE IMPORTANTLY.....they are using their big guns (statement from a CB') to quash a rally. Orchastrated selling just doesn't seem to cut it anymore. Sure looks like things are getting out of hand.

Speaking of bankers...

From Fleck tonight:
Panning Gold On The Thames Away from stocks, fixed income was down 0.5%, as measured by the 10-year. The currencies were lower, with the euro and the yen down. The metals were doing better, with gold and silver up over 1%-plus. Speaking of the metals, a fellow named Alan Kinnersley penned a very interesting letter to the editor in Barron's last weekend on the irony surrounding the Bank of England's gold auctions. He noted that while the proceeds were being invested in dollars, euro and yen, "currency charts show that in the last 12 months, gold has appreciated against the U.S. dollar, euro and yen by 18%, 21%, and 33%, respectively" -- obviously dwarfing whatever tiny yield was earned by the currencies. He then echoes a point made here sometime back, that with the Japanese appearing to be buying gold for investment reasons, this would be the first time in 20 years that gold was actually behaving as a monetary asset. Mr. Kinnersley's ending remark says it best: "Ironically, individual investors appear to be rediscovering the monetary role of gold, even as the guardians of the world's financial system at the Bank of England have rejected it."

Crying All The Way To The Bank Actually, while there may be some irony, this is the way it always is. Any time bankers, whether commercial or central, all agree to do something, you can be 100% certain it's the wrong thing to do. As the bubble was blowing off in the late 1990s, commercial banks in America were falling over themselves to buy brokerage firms. Meanwhile, the central bankers have been demonstrating their shortsightedness by selling gold. So, it's quite obvious what to do going forward: Own gold and avoid financial assets. Taking the other side of what all the bankers do has always been a winning trade during the 20-plus years I've been in the business (although there is often a serious time lag that must be dealt with, which is no trivial matter).
*************
uponroof:

Japan...
Unless Japanese banks declare bankruptcy there is no start of real reform. If the Japanese gummint can't call broke banks broke, their people will do it for them...by buying gold. yeeehaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaawwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww!!!!!!!!!!

sector...somewhere along the line, during these next few financial calamities, I sincerely hope Mr Rubin gets what he deserves.
**********

Congrats to the CANADIAN hocky teams!

sector

(02/26/2002; 18:53:33 MDT - Msg ID: 70781)

Oil,Oil, Oil...Nahhh...Maybe NGas

@CavenManThere are far too many REALLY BIG FED derivatives players to get into oil.
It is much better to play small Canadian NGas guys.

Companies too small to afford accounting bribes. At least then one gets closer to the real earnings number�always with zero debt. Any equity with debt is a killer these days.

BTW Ernst Weltke pulled sort of a clumsy, foot-in-mouth slap at gold and then moved in to buy after it dropped $6. So...the next time the European guys get together to bash gold we know they are the ones lining up to buy the dip they cause.

Black Blade

(02/26/2002; 18:59:09 MDT - Msg ID: 70782)

Cavan Man - Oil and Fuel Cells

We won't see fuel cell technology take off for another 20 years or so, if ever. There are several major problems. 1) The consumer will have to accept a new product and be willing to pay for it. That is likely to take place over several years; and 2) there simply is not infrastructure to produce hydrogen in any significant quantity or any distribution system. That alone would take decades.

Right now Oil and Natural Gas is dirt cheap, thankfully due to a worsening/deepening recession/depression. If the Middle East blows up then we will see higher POO due to expected supply disruptions. As far as Dubya's "Energy Plan", it is good as dead. Daschle (D-SD) won't let the bill come to a vote in the senate and until a change in political majority in the senate, and so it will remain dead. The US will remain hostage to the oil producing nations as it is oil that fuels the economy. Cheers!

- Black Blade

R Powell

(02/26/2002; 19:06:43 MDT - Msg ID: 70783)

POG/POS

The boys down under in Sydney gave up $.90 of today's gain in gold but they added 3 cents to the POS. Now we start in Hong Kong. The POG is really starting to look good from a technical point of view. The trend followers should start covering shorts and adding to their long positions.
The OTC shorts should start some serious worrying.
Hopefully, we'll soon have reason to start some serious smiling. If POG goes steadily upward, we'll see just how well the delta hedging and Black and Scholes formulae work.
Thanks, sector, for reporting what you've heard. It's starting to feel as if the path of least resistance for metals' prices is up. Maybe I've been looking at the charts too much.
Rich

slingshot

(02/26/2002; 19:13:58 MDT - Msg ID: 70784)

Gold is cheaper in Canada.

Look out Canuck!If you could have a good day at work, today had to be one for me. Here is the story. A fellow worker who has been working along with myself for a short period of time'started a conversation about how much he had lost in the stock market. I listen to him explain that it had put him in a pinch and let him bend my ear watching the expressions on his face. He seems to be a good fellow and after he finished I asked him what has he done to prevent that from happening to him again. He stated he moved into CD's and Bonds. Having been burnt on the subject of gold I asked him what he thought about it. He said, " I would buy some if I could find some". I thought to myself YEAH!, I finally have someone to talk about gold at work. Then It happened.The next words were, "But I have to go to Canada to get some". I tried to explain that he could get it right here in the USA. No, it was cheaper in Canada. I let it drop with an O.K. Did not need to make a fellow goldbug angry.
My plan is to bring in some gold articles and I'm sure in time he will ask to read them. I would like to save him a trip for it will be a very long one every time he wants to buy. He gave a smile for the day. He sounded like he was bent on going to Canada for sure.

Wonder if he is driving or flying?

Slingshot :)))

Chris Powell

(02/26/2002; 19:54:38 MDT - Msg ID: 70785)

Canada's Financial Post devotes most of a page to GATA

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1025Canada's Financial Post devotes most of a page
to GATA:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1025

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Trapper

(02/26/2002; 20:10:07 MDT - Msg ID: 70786)

Cave Man

Sir Cave Man: You wrote.
The Euro model is an innovation; though last in a long line of monetary invention(s). The single, compelling reason for its usage
IMHO is the free floating (market) price of gold allowing gold to be used as a store of value and a defense against debasement
of the realm's coin. IMHO, this is a practical, rational model well-grounded in historical monetary perspective that will work.
With only a modicum of money's history; one cannot help but believe that change is upon us. Doing my homework.....CM
I guess you will be putting your money into euro's now. Please explain to me what the paultry amount of gold held in the euro centeral bank has to do with the fiat bill in circulation? You suggest that it is a defense against debasment. This would imply that a German fellow could exchange some of his fiat bills for some of that gold a gold's free market price. Many countries hold large amounts of gold and use fiat but it is no help...ALL fiat will go to ZERO someday. Now the euro being the newest fiat on the block has more time perhaps but to zero it will go. If the ecu adds gold as they print more fiat it will last much longer but I doubt they keep the ratio even, too much temptation for free money for the bankers etc. As for me I am exiting as much fiat as possible and into hard money AG, AU, And some PT plus supplies and protection. Live small.
RJ

Black Blade

(02/26/2002; 20:17:30 MDT - Msg ID: 70787)

RE: Rx Gold - Montana CBM

http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=TOPST&ARTICLE_ID=136952RE: Rx Gold - Montana CBM

State and federal regulators issue draft EIS for Montana coal bed methane production

Snippit:

WASHINGTON, DC, Feb. 26 --State and federal regulators have issued a draft environmental impact statement for coal bed methane development in south-central and southeastern Montana.

The preferred alternative recommended by the Department of the Interior's Bureau of Land Management would require operators to submit a plan of development and plan for handling water generated during coal bed methane production, the Independent Petroleum Association of Mountain States said. BLM also wants water from production recycled for irrigation or livestock watering.

The EIS assumes 10,000-26,000 wells will be drilled in the region and could include 4,000 wells on Indian lands. The deadline for comments is May 15; five public meetings are scheduled before then across the state. A final EIS is anticipated in the summer. In a related effort, Region 8 of the US Environmental Protection Agency Region and the Montana and Wyoming departments of environmental quality received comments by industry, landowners, and other stakeholders on the surface discharge of coal bed methane water.

IPAMS said regulators may try to apply water quality regulations originally intended for conventional oil and gas to "relatively new" coal bed methane production. The agencies' analysis will also help determine whether reinjection and other water containment methods are suitable in some areas, IPAMS officials said.

The association said industry prefers to continue using the surface discharge method under an EPA guideline that allows for "best professional judgment." But several ranchers said they are worried that guideline allows too many permits to be issued that circumvent regulations intended to protect existing land uses.

Black Blade: It appears that the Bureau of Land Management's EIS has concluded that essentially no changes need to be made to existing regulations. Of course it's a moot point this year as there will be little if any significant drilling of CBM due to low NG prices.

Rx Gold

(02/26/2002; 20:30:30 MDT - Msg ID: 70788)

@ Black Blade

Thanks BB. I have been to a meeting in Sheridan all day listning to reps from the Wyo DEQ, Montana DEQ, The Crow Tribe, The Cheyenne Tribe, US EPA and a pile of other folks representing everything from fish huggers to CBM lawyers. It was a very interesting meeting. I hope you are right about the lack of CBM development this year as it looks like another drought year for the irrigators downstream. I hope all parties can come to some sort of mutual understanding that will allow CBM development as well as protecting our Montana farmers.

Black Blade

(02/26/2002; 20:34:26 MDT - Msg ID: 70789)

Rx Gold

Ah heck, I am in Sheridan right now. If I knew you were here I would buy ya a Fat Tire at Sanford's. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Rx Gold

(02/26/2002; 20:35:09 MDT - Msg ID: 70790)

@ Black Blade

I also wanted to apologize for saying that Wyoming folk only care about the bar being open. That was a flip remark and should not have said that. I always look forward to your posts and marvel at your ability to pick out interesting articles and snippit them for us. Thank you.

Rx Gold

(02/26/2002; 20:37:13 MDT - Msg ID: 70791)

@Black Blade

Were you at the meeting?

Black Blade

(02/26/2002; 20:42:16 MDT - Msg ID: 70792)

Rx Gold

I was not at the meeting. I wasn't even aware of it. I just live nearby. I know that there are several meetings of this type all the time. Sometimes they are held at the Sheridan Inn (where Buffalo Bill Cody used to hang out and have try outs for his Wild West Shows). I guess that they moral of the story is, if you are going to steal land from the Indian to ranch and farm, at least try to steal the mineral rights too. ;-)

- Black Blade

Pizz

(02/26/2002; 21:10:01 MDT - Msg ID: 70793)

War - Or How Not To Go The Way of Japan

Financially, nearly everthing I see and read says we're about to deflate/stagnate as Japan has done the last 10 years or so.

Politically, not a pretty picture with off year elections this year, and primary elections a shade more than 2 1/2 years out.

Now, why would Bush turn his State of the Union message into a near declaration of war? Why would he target three sovergn states at the same time? We can't fight three wars simultaniously - or are we planning a really big one?

I'm beginning to think the strength in gold lately is not as financially related as we may think. We've got enough Enronitis out there along with the derivitives and debt mess to crush the dollar, bonds, banks, and SM. WE know they're propping them up, but it's starting to appear to me the PTB has also been buying time.

AGAIN - WHY PUT IRAN AND N. KOREA ON NOTICE???

It is not going to surprise anyone when we go into IRAQ. Now, I wonder what Iran and N. Korea are going to do. Just sit around and let us Blitzkreig Iraq -which I think we will try - since we don't have the resources to fight three ground wars at the same time (but we have allies - right?? - well maybe???) without going nuclear (don't like that thought). This "war on terror" has the potential to escalate rather dramatically. I just don't think Iran and N. Korea are going to "wait their turn". Would you???

Ecomomically, the K-Wave says there is no way out of this mess without a depression, and one that will make the 30's look like a cake walk. We aren't doing bailouts and it now appears Japan isn't going to do anything more than a bit of window dressing either - after Bush's visit.

What's up? A bigger, larger war than anyone expects?

Want to get unemplyment down - draft.

Want to go from deflation to inflation? Huge deficit spending injected directly into defense contractors and a war time economy.

Want to get the heat off the financial mess?

Want to have something other than domestic/financial policy to blame for the economic mess?

Want to have a half chance of being re-elected??

Boeing stock has not been going up due to a rosy commercial airline buying binge in the near future.

The BB's, etc. may be able to control gold financially, but add WAR (not war) - they won't be able to hold it down and I think they know it and we're starting to see gold shifts/positioning by the majors.

Good news. Gold's going up, but I'm getting the feeling I'm not going to like the reason.

Pizz

Rocketman

(02/26/2002; 21:56:32 MDT - Msg ID: 70794)

"Axis of evil" and other musings

Include Iran, Iraq and N. Korea but some other names were conspicously absent such as Libya, Algeria and why not China?

General Musharraf as quoted by Mark Steyn in the National Post today interestingly noted that Islamofascists are just as happy beheading American/Jewish journalists as they are killing Christians (as evidenced in Sudan, Nigeria etc) and Hindus (Kashmir). In fact Muslims, "the poorest, the most illiterate, the most backward, the most unhealthy, the most unenlightened, the deprived, and the weakest of all the human race" see themselves as victims. For these people, It is always someone elses fault! Indeed muslims seems to be at the center of most conflicts in the world today.

So why doesn't Bush simply include the entire Muslim world and any or all who attempt to sell them nucs in the "Axis of Evil".

That would sure make spot jump! . . . But what good is radioactive gold, hmmmm reminds me of a James Bond Movie.

Gimme Shelter

(02/26/2002; 22:35:09 MDT - Msg ID: 70795)

Gold As Money

Ahhhhh music to my ears.
So I am wondering. With all of the talent that is here on this board. Believing a change is in the air, using any means you see fit,how would YOU design the new payment system?
You all know I have a keen interest. If you did not before, you do now.
Do not forget, as I challenge you to design your own personal payment system for the, GLOBE, that you will have to compete, (At least for awhile) with the regulaters. See Pay Pal and four unfriendly states.
I believe this should be very interesting to study as the only entity stopping us from this developement, is US.
In fact some already have the beginnings of this new system.
I though am looking to understand from your perspectives, how you see a new successful system initiated and then actually work for the people for a change.

Gimme Shelter
Disclaimer- This article or message was once protected by the First Amendments "Freedom of Speech".
Since the Constitution is no longer valid, I am forced to try and satisfy the US so called (PATRIOT Act) with the following.
This article or message is not intended to coerce or influence anyone inside of or outside of any government.

Black Blade

(02/26/2002; 23:07:59 MDT - Msg ID: 70796)

India's Dirty Secret

http://globalarchive.ft.com/globalarchive/article.html?id=020226001331&query=gold
Snippit:

A recent survey of the quality of gold jewellery sold i n Calcutta by the Bureau of Indian Standards showed that few customers who paid for 22-carat gold jewellery actually received it. What the BIS discovered in Calcutta is also more or less the case in the seven other big Indian cities - Bombay, Delhi, Bangalore, Madras, Ahmedabad, Hyderabad and Jaipur - covered in the survey.

In each city, 15 shops were chosen randomly from which BIS officials along with representatives from local consumer action groups bought jewellery without disclosing their identities. The subsequent assaying of jewellery showed that only 14 of the 120 shops in the eight cities were truthful in their dealings. The others were passing off gold jewellery of anything between 13.5 and 18 carats as 22-carat jewellery.

According to industry officials, leaked reports of the BIS findings have already slowed purchases of gold jewellery in big Indian cities. Many city buyers will not now settle for anything but hallmarked jewellery. However, only about 275 of more than 100,000 outlets in the country stock hallmarked jewellery.

Black Blade: I brought this issue up a few days ago. However, even in the US, Americans buy overpriced 10K to 18K crap for jewelry. The typical lame excuse is that 24K jewelry is too soft. That of course is BS. Anyone who has spent time in Asia and SE Asia in particular know this. I suspect that now hallmarked jewelry will be demanded by Indians and many small Indian rip off joints will go tits up. In the long run it is likely that the higher Gold content will mean higher Gold consumption.

Mr Gresham

(02/26/2002; 23:09:24 MDT - Msg ID: 70797)

Hey Pizz!

Good to see you around.

Recession/depression just plain UN-AC-CEP-TABLE! (without at least "trying" to do something about it out of the old playbook) . the idea of gov being impotent over the economy (for Repubs, too) will not fly. How are they linked in the news? Rarely anything about economy without something from gov about how they're gonna improve it.

Pres tries for the history books, not "my people had quiet and simple economic lives under my admin, despite difficulties leftover from previous" -- nope, gotta go out in a blaze, FRoosevelt made a "great pres" by wartime hardships.

So, war. Or at least war talk. Spend money, yeah, on the guys who needed political paybacks anyway.

Distract, distract, distract. Standard program. Only this time it ain't "Wag the Dog" -- it's wag the whole damn kennel.

Waverider

(02/26/2002; 23:39:45 MDT - Msg ID: 70798)

Musings...

Black Blade ~ True...I agree with your conclusions, you're just looking at the other side of the coin as it were (keeps us on our toes). Bear US$ relative to Gold - yup - relative to the CA$ - man, don't talk to RobotGuy about that today...I'll read your Gold valuations (US$ devaluations)in a new light!

Slingshot ~ Ohhhh...that Gold should be cheaper in the land of maple leaves, eh? I wonder what this guy is thinking... I've been trying also to get a few of my colleagues interested in Gold. I'm now using a different tactic - just cast the hook with a little fresh bait and wait for them to bite! I no longer discuss the merits of gold investing directly, but refer more to USAGold and the breadth and depth of discussion here..."Oh, and by the way...did I mention that the common interest is Gold...." I had a few people ask me for the URL last week.

Cavan Man/Trapper ~ I feel that I should have a grasp on this concept by now but it's still not clear to me, so thank you for asking the question Trapper. BTW - when I see you sign off (Live small) I'm reminded of Neil McCoy's song "Small up and simple down" - great song, great motto to live by!

BTW ~ Just did a quick jog to the store and picked up a copy of the Financial Post. Great publicity for GATA, "Gold Prices Tarnished Group Claims".
Cheers!
Waverider

Jin-Yin

(02/27/2002; 00:11:23 MDT - Msg ID: 70799)

RobotGuy, et. al

Thanks for the welcome. I have sat at this table round before. My current handle is a new hat. Fits well and hopefully will not get me the hook again.

Yes, indeed, this is the best forum to hit the Internet. The friendly posters and the trail make it what it is along with USAGOLD and its host, which funds it.

Spent a lot of time at other investment sites and discussion boards trying to get the trail worn with a wider path. Posted links to this site, but sadly I think it went largely unnoticed. Some interest but way too much ignorance on the subject of gold, fiat money and oil. When the majorities� reasoning power is short-circuited by the media, any alternative explanation for current affairs is seen with derision and contempt if not, at times, highlighting their lack of emotional intelligence. It is an uphill battle with family. Any advice other than keeping one's lips zipped?

Again thanks and hope to add useful information from time to time.

Waverider

(02/27/2002; 00:28:11 MDT - Msg ID: 70800)

Vietnam becomes one of SE Asia's biggest gold consumers

http://home.kyodo.co.jp/all/display.jsp?an=20020226191Snippit:
"Vietnam's demand for gold set a new record in 2001 for the third successive year, with the country consuming 73 tons of gold, 13 tons more than in 2000, the official Vietnam News Agency (VNA) reported on Tuesday.

VNA quoted the World Gold Council (WGC) as saying earlier this month in its annual report on gold demand trends that Vietnam, with a year-on-year increase of 22%, registered the highest growth in demand in Southeast Asia and became one of the region's biggest gold consumers.

The London-based council, which called Vietnam the ''star performer'' in Southeast Asia last year, attributed the growth in demand for gold there last year partly to a strong fourth quarter economic performance.

The report said interest rates on currency assets remained uninvitingly low while domestic wage growth was strong. Increasing disposable income propelled jewelry demand, it said, adding that investment buying was also strong due to growing demand for gold bars for use in property transactions."

Waverider: Vietnam is a country of 80 million people. Who would have thought...and Gold bars used for property transactions.

Belgian

(02/27/2002; 01:51:32 MDT - Msg ID: 70801)

The Stock Market

The present strength, falsely displayed, in stock valuations is not only irrational but "obscene" ! It is the strongiest evidence of the dollar having lost **ALL CREDIBILITY** ! Virtual worthless fiat that desparately scrambles for a (any) tangible. This happens against the background of the Enron **SHOW**. Cargos of dollars are zigzagging for substance, preferably the wrong one (stocks-bonds). When one is holding so much paper (dollar-fiat) that has been abandoned STEALTHLY, irrationality is on the order of the day. It is 1971 all over again ! Too much dollars and nothing against it. NOTHING but artificial wind. The DRAMA in its essence. Take care and anticipate the coming 1971 lesson, NOW.

MOJO-JOJO

(02/27/2002; 02:45:52 MDT - Msg ID: 70802)

black blades statements regarding unemployment rate

black blade, you had posted an interesting article several days ago about the unemployment rate being mis-stated due to several factors. I found this post very interesting, and was wondering if you could provide me with some links for more info.

nickel62

(02/27/2002; 03:41:30 MDT - Msg ID: 70803)

Do you all remember about five years ago when Argentina's Central Bank was so happy about selling off all it's gold reserves?

WEll HERE IS THE OUTCOME!

Argentine crisis shakes faith in democracy
By Thomas Catan
Published: February 26 2002 21:07 | Last Updated: February 27 2002 05:28

Politicians are unpopular the world over, but Argentina's rulers have sunk to a level of disrepute probably unparalleled in the country's history.

Eduardo Menem, a national senator and brother of the former president, Carlos, recently got a taste of the popular disdain for his profession on a flight to Buenos Aires from his native province of La Rioja. Recognising him, a young man stood up and began shouting: "What an awful smell of shit in here."

In the ensuing scuffle, Mr Menem punched the man in the face and the cabin crew had to place the men at opposite ends of the aircraft.

Mr Menem is not the only Argentine politician to feel the ire of a nation enduring its worst economic crisis in recent history. Passengers travelling to Europe recently complained about having to share a flight with Carlos Ruckauf, the foreign minister.

Raul Alfonsin, a former president who brought Argentina back to democracy in 1983, endured shouts of "thief" and "give back the money" from an angry crowd outside his house, prompting the septuagenarian to confront his accusers in a messy brawl.

Fernando de la Rua and Domingo Cavallo - respectively former president and economy minister - are so fearful for their safety that they have not appeared in public since they were swept from power in December.

Their pictures appear with those of other politicians from all parties on "wanted" posters pasted around the capital.

All over Argentina, politicians - regardless of their party affiliation or record - are hounded out of restaurants, shopping malls, bars and cafes by angry patrons. Such treatment was once reserved for army officers after the end of the last military government, under which up to 30,000 died.

The "political class", as it is called in Argentina, is now blamed for the nation's century-long decline from the world's seventh-richest nation to an economic basket-case.

Other branches of the state are no safer. Supreme court justices face so many protests outside their homes and courts that one has filed a complaint claiming deprivation of liberty.

Alarmed by this apparent loss of faith in Argentina's institutions, the Pope recently issued a warning that the country's democracy could be in peril. "Your country is experiencing a profound social and economic crisis that affects the whole of society, and places democratic stability and the public institutions in danger," he wrote to the Argentine church this month.

Public rage over a bankrupt state, soaring unemployment and the disappearance of people's savings in a banking crisis toppled two governments in December. Many wonder how long Eduardo Duhalde, the current president, can survive in office.

Should his government fall, few can predict what would come next. "Duhalde represents the last chance for traditional politics in Argentina," says Rosendo Fraga, a political analyst. The looming political vacuum has stirred fears of a return to Argentina's authoritarian past, unthinkable just three months ago.

Already one maverick former colonel, Mohamed Ali Seineldin, in jail for leading a failed coup in 1990, has launched a campaign to become president. Graffiti calling for his release have appeared in Buenos Aires.

Talk of a return of the military has been so widespread that the head of the army was forced to dismiss the idea. "There is no military option," said Lieutenant General Ricardo Brinzoni in a recent interview with La Nacion newspaper. "The country's problems must be resolved by the politicians."

People who know the military well say Lt Gen Brinzoni's declarations are in earnest - the military has no desire to be consumed by the economic and political crisis.

A more pressing fear is that a collapse of public institutions could lead to the sort of anarchy witnessed in December, when shops were looted and the Congress set alight.

Anarchy could force the government to renew December's state of emergency. Then, the government suspended constitutional rights and called on the non-military security forces to quash dissent.

"There is the risk that [the protests] could evolve into a spiral of violence, making it necessary to impose order, because people do not tolerate anarchy," Mr Duhalde said.

nickel62

(02/27/2002; 03:43:56 MDT - Msg ID: 70804)

I forgot to say!

I think the mantra at the time by the financial types was that selling all of Argentina's gold reserves to put the money into an interest bearing investment was a good idea. They couldn't understand why anyone would want to hold gold, which pays no interest. Wonder if they have changed their minds?

nickel62

(02/27/2002; 03:47:59 MDT - Msg ID: 70805)

Introductions.

Jim Yin I welcome you back. I am an infrequent poster here as well although I share your opinion of the site. Time just limits us all nowadays. What was your handle in a prior life my son?

Knallgold

(02/27/2002; 05:00:03 MDT - Msg ID: 70806)

Goldnonsense

http://www2.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/newsArticles.asp?guid=%7BF1DFF822%2DED94%2D4081%2D9599%2D7680E235CE50%7D&doctype=2005&siteid=mktw&selCount=50&value=gold∝erty=word&Please read first...

nickel62

(02/27/2002; 05:30:59 MDT - Msg ID: 70807)

Sow this article from Bloomburg to all your friends who still own stocks and see whether or not they still think the market isn't manipulated....!!!!

CSFB, Salomon Smith Barney Topped Ranks of Enron Underwriters
By Tom Cahill

New York, Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Wall Street analysts asked to testify before Congress this week about Enron Corp. have one thing in common: Their firms were some of the biggest sellers of the $25 billion in stock and bonds issued by the energy trader.

Analysts from Citigroup Inc., Credit Suisse First Boston, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Lehman Brothers Inc. will answer questions from a U.S. Senate committee today on why they maintained ``buy'' recommendations on Enron Corp. stock while the company's finances fell apart.

One reason may have been the underwriting fees their firms received. CSFB, combined with the firm it bought in November 2000, Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette Inc., was the biggest underwriter of Enron securities with about $7.4 billion sold. Citigroup Inc.'s Salomon Smith Barney followed with $3.7 billion, including $1.8 billion in convertible bonds sold last February, according to Bloomberg data on managers for bond and note sales.

``They turned a blind eye to the situation for various business reasons,'' said David Hendler, a bank and securities firm analyst at CreditSights Inc., a research firm that does no investment banking.

The banking fees generated by Enron's securities sales prevented analysts from lowering their ratings on the stock, he said. As recently as September, Enron was the second most highly rated stock in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, behind Tyco International Ltd.

Probes

A dozen congressional committees are probing Enron, which filed the largest U.S. bankruptcy ever on Dec. 2. The company used partnerships to hide debt and losses.

Pen Pendleton, a spokesman for CSFB; Duncan King, a spokesman for Salomon; and Joseph Evangelisti, a spokesman for J.P. Morgan Chase, declined to comment. Bill Ahearn, a spokesman for Lehman, didn't return calls.

Enron, meanwhile, completed or attempted 69 acquisitions with a value of about $40 billion and held 62 bond and note sales during the past 17 years, according to Bloomberg data.

Salomon ranked as the biggest adviser to Enron mergers, with about $5 billion in transactions, followed by CSFB with $4.45 billion, according to Bloomberg data.

Credit Suisse and DLJ served as the exclusive lead managers for $1.75 billion in secondary stock sales by Enron in three sales since 1992, according to Bloomberg data. Those sales generated fees of about $52.5 million in fees, according to Bloomberg data.

Barriers

Enron's relationship with J.P. Morgan Chase grew in the 1990s as Chase Manhattan, which William Harrison ran since 1999, arranged more than $7 billion in loans and other financing for the trading company, according to Bloomberg data.

``Good luck getting business if your analyst had a negative rating on them,'' said Michael Madden, a partner at Questor Management Co. and who ran investment banking at Lehman Brothers and Kidder Peabody Co. in the 1980s and 1990s.

Regulators have proposed rules to strengthen barriers within securities firms between investment bankers and analysts. The National Association of Securities Dealers wants to forbid analysts from reporting to investment bankers and from being paid out of revenue from specific banking transactions.

Analysts would have to disclose any personal holdings of a company's stock they recommend and whether their firm has investment banking ties to that company.

Conflicts

``There are always going to be conflicts as long as investment banking and research are under the same roof,'' said Robert Glauber, chairman of the NASD, who will testify before Congress today. ``By disclosing them we can lessen them.''

Governmental Affairs Committee Chairman Joe Lieberman, a Democrat from Connecticut, and Fred Thompson, a Republican from Tennessee, will run the Senate hearing Wednesday, likely to be the first of several on the topic of analyst conflicts.

Speaking will be Lehman's Richard Gross, J.P. Morgan's Anatol Feygin, Salomon Smith Barney's Raymond Niles, and Curtis Launer for CSFB. None of the analysts returned calls.

Launer's boss, CSFB Chief Executive Officer John Mack, acknowledged that analysts at his firm and others have an image problem.

``We're in a business of conflicts; oftentimes that perception that you can't be trusted exists,'' Mack said Monday in an interview on business cable network CNBC. ``We have to do a number of things to win that trust back.''

Ratings

CSFB's Launer rated Enron ``strong buy'' on Oct. 23, a week after the company announced $1 billion in third-quarter losses from secret partnerships and other investments. A day later, J.P. Morgan's Feygin dropped Enron to ``long-term buy'' from ``buy.''

Launer was the top natural gas analyst for 11 of the past 12 years, according to Institutional Investor magazine, which polls money managers annually for their views on the best analysts.

Lehman's Gross repeated his ``strong buy'' rating on Oct. 23, six days after Enron announced the loss. ``Investors should rustle up a little courage and aggressively buy the stock in the face of this torrent of unsettling news,'' Gross wrote in a report to clients.

`Too Late'

To be sure, stock analysts weren't the only ones snookered.

Bond analysts at Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's Corp. maintained investment-grade ratings on the firm until Nov. 28, when the stock had already tumbled 95 percent.

Further, the ratings companies had also given investment grade ratings to Marlin Water Trust II and Osprey Trust, two partnerships backed by Enron stock that required about $4 billion in payments once Enron itself lost its investment grade ratings.

Investors said Enron was far from the first collapse missed by analysts, and won't be last.

``One of the problems with Wall Street is they're always waiting for that last bit information, but by that point it's often too late,'' said Daniel Bandi, who manages about $1.3 billion for Armada Funds at National City Investment Management Co. in Cleveland.

While Enron was once the biggest holding in Bandi's Armada Large Cap Value Fund, he sold when he no longer understood how it was making its money. Now it turns out few analysts did either.

``We said we don't know what's going at this company,'' said Bandi, who said he sold a portion of his position when the stock was near $80 a share. ``That's when you sell.''

Below is a list of the five biggest underwriters of Enron stock and debt, according to Bloomberg data:

CSFB* $7.4 billion
Deutsche Bank AG $4.4 billion
Salomon Smith Barney $3.7 billion
Merrill Lynch & Co. $2.3 billion
Lehman Brothers $2.2 billion

*CSFB and DLJ transactions combined

And�ril

(02/27/2002; 06:42:27 MDT - Msg ID: 70809)

Silver flows as water to the sea

R Powell (02/14/02; 15:16:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 70023), you misinterpret the way of it in your reply, saying, "you posted some harsh words about silver based on the current 60 to 1 (ratio)"

Know now and know surely that hard words previously offered were for hard heads alone; the softness of a silvery metal does not warrant such keen attention of emotion that you would here have it receive. Would you have any rational man pause in his day to love (or hate) a rock for being as nature devised? And yet also, a fool is he that looks at silver, seeing silver only. Polish that which is before you so that you may better see the ways of mankind, ways seen clearly as reflected in the silver falling from 12:1 to 60:1 ...and beyond. It comes to this: The broad course of human events flows as a river. Comprehension accepts meanders as but small part of the whole, and folly it is to bet against this flow, so easy to see from suitable vantage points anywhere along the way. Against gold, silver will not reclaim the high ground it once knew.

As with silver, it would likewise be irrational to sing the praise of gold for gold's own sake, a "rock" made different by nature's quirk of design. Worthy of praise, however, is the living PERSON gaining the vantage point for recognition of the trend in ECONOMIC USE of this "different rock" within the course AND CLIMATE of human development. For emphasis: at this singular moment in time.

After speaking previously of the smart movements of big money (into gold), some of silver's hardest heads shouted "Look at Buffett, look at Gates!" They know little of the private lives of these two men, and in naming two men, they provide little more than demonstration of their little grasp of the workings of the wide world.

Look at a ripple, listen to a whisper, and learn to go with the flow.

This was in the news:
[TOKYO, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Japanese investors dumped massive amounts of foreign bonds, mostly U.S. Treasuries, in January on worries over rising U.S. interest rates and strong fund demand at Japan's money-losing banks for the fiscal year-end, data showed. Finance Ministry figures released on Wednesday showed Japanese investors sold 3.0712 trillion yen ($23.16 billion) in medium- and long-term foreign bonds in January. "The large amount of sales reflected attempts by banks to reduce their positions in U.S. bonds," a senior ministry official told Reuters.]

Have an eye at big money! Ahead of bank reform, watch Japan as millions of sensible housewives are buying gold kilos. The full yen value of her average savings could be carried home in a handbag of gold at 30 pounds, or a silver truckload at one tonne. A look at big money, in many tiny hands. It does not lift silver. As small money emulates big money, "poor man's 'gold'" will be a metal of yellow hue, matching rich man's gold in substance if not in quantity.

It may be that time alone will raise the vantage point of silver's hardest heads. From 12:1 then 60:1, how far must silver and gold continue to part ways before they see that gold value grows in serving an economic use, a use the market will not inefficiently, redundantly manifest in any other metal or thing? This want for efficiency shall be the continuing cause of silver's long slide from the old high ground.

Black Blade

(02/27/2002; 06:45:14 MDT - Msg ID: 70810)

RE: Gerald

Oh...OK.

Black Blade

(02/27/2002; 07:08:12 MDT - Msg ID: 70811)

RE: MOJO-JOJO - Unemployment

http://economics.about.com/library/chartroom/blunemplmeasure.htm?iam=dpile&terms=unemployment
I am not sure which article you are referring to, however, Forbes had about three or four articles that addressed this issue as well as Jim Puplava on his market wrap-ups. Those articles may have expired by now. I did find a copy of BLS Report 864 by former BLS commissioner Katharine Abraham (1994) that glosses over the details of how the government determines the unemployment rate (see link). There is a good bibliography that may help. There is a follow up report that also details additional changes. I believe that was Report 871.

This is nothing new as some major changes were made to how the BLS gathers and manipulates data under the Daddy Bush administration (especially the CPI, PPI, and unemployment data). More changes are in the offing as the newest change will be in how the BLS calculates the CPI - this is the recently announced "chained CPI". It is a measure that will cheat Social Security recipients out of their COLA adjustments.

I recently read that New York state has about 80,000 people who are running out of benefits and still no employment. These people are now considered employed as far as the BLS is concerned. There are no provisions for determining how many people are now under-employed. At the link you can read about some of the statistical massage and filters that are used by the BLS to understate the unemployment data. I hope this helps. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Cavan Man

(02/27/2002; 07:13:25 MDT - Msg ID: 70812)

Black Blade

Oil up today! Keep up the good work.

RobotGuy

(02/27/2002; 07:17:13 MDT - Msg ID: 70813)

@Gerald

Man, I don't know what Black Blade said to hurt your feelings so much, but I have to admit, from what I've seen this forum doesn't regularly sport blunt negativity. Black Blade may be a little extreme at times, but as all people he also has a personality. B.B. has been very helpful in providing me with viewpoints and ideas that otherwise I mightn't consider. Please don't soil this forum with flames, I enjoy reading these posts and flames seem to tarnish the lustre.
Each individual is very capable of simply stating anything they wish I'm sure, but if you have a 'beef', why not discuss the specifics with that individual instead of bluntly stating 'you're dumb.'

With all respect,
Robotguy.

Black Blade

(02/27/2002; 07:18:46 MDT - Msg ID: 70814)

Japan Unveils Anti-Deflation Package

http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/020227/japan_package_details_1.html
Japan's Anti-Deflation Package Tackles Bad Debt and Sinking Stocks

Snippit:

Here are some highlights:

-- Speed up disposal of bad bank loans. The government estimates Japan's commercial banks are saddled with some 43 trillion yen ($323 billion) in bad debt, while private estimates run as high as double that amount. Writing off those losses may give banks a fresh start to finance the economy's expansion.

-- Pressure debtor companies to restructure. The worst offenders will be asked to adopt solid turnaround programs or face the possibility of folding.

-- Urge central bank to loosen monetary policy. Bank of Japan Gov. Masaru Hayami has already indicated he will comply, possibly by cutting interest rates further or buying more government bonds to inject even more cash into the system. Typically, the more money in circulation, the faster prices tend to rise.

-- Buoy Japan's sinking stock market. The plan calls for tightening restrictions on short-selling, an investment strategy that bets on stocks declining. Government officials have said they want to keep the Tokyo exchange's Nikkei index from falling much below its current level around 10,000. A government-backed stock-buying entity called the Banks' Shareholding Acquisition Corp. will be charged with buying up to 2 trillion yen ($15 billion) shares from banks, which are selling to meet new stockholding restrictions.

-- Free up credit for small- and medium-sized businesses. Small-time entrepreneurs are finding it increasingly difficult to get cash to start up new businesses. The new plan calls for creating a special fund to make that easier.

Black Blade: I had briefly mentioned that short-selling was to be severely restricted a couple of nights ago. We even knew about Japan's version of the PPT. Until now the insolvent Japanese banks would not write-off the bad debt and nonperforming loans. That does surprise me. There must be a bit of "culture shock" in Japan today. Something tells me that this might work short-term, but it is too little - too late. "Interesting Times"

Black Blade

(02/27/2002; 07:32:59 MDT - Msg ID: 70815)

Analysts Face Scrutiny Over Enron Ratings

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A7658-2002Feb26?language=printer
Snippit:

Wall Street stock analysts who have been widely criticized for remaining bullish on Enron Corp. until the bitter end will face unfriendly questions this morning at a hearing before the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee.

Senators are expected to grill four analysts about why they declined to downgrade Enron before the energy trading company's stock lost much of its value, crushing the retirement accounts of company employees and putting a dent in many investors' portfolios.

"What were the analysts' motives?" Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (D-Conn.), the committee chairman, is expected to ask, according to a committee spokeswoman. "Why were they blind to the company's decline, and how can we prevent similar failures in the future?"

The opening panel will include four analysts who covered Enron for major Wall Street firms: Anatol Feygin, from J.P. Morgan Chase; Richard Gross, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.; Curt Launer, Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB); and Raymond Niles, from the Salomon Smith Barney unit of Citigroup Inc. The panel will also include Howard Schilit, an independent analyst and president of the Center for Financial Research and Analysis in Rockville.

Black Blade: Today the grill is set on high for a severe roasting. There was one analyst at BNP Pariba (named Socotta?) who gave a sell rating to Enron shortly before the collapse. He was fired and now is working as an independent. Should be an "interesting" grilling before the Senate.

BTW, Alan Greenspin gives testimony before Congress today as well.

da2g

(02/27/2002; 08:05:36 MDT - Msg ID: 70816)

Gerald re: Black Blade

Jerry:

Please don't try to hold back your feelings too much, you're going to give yourself an ulcer ;)

Black Blade: Keep your posts coming!

Black Blade

(02/27/2002; 08:09:49 MDT - Msg ID: 70817)

S.Africa gold output near 1953 low, seen steadier

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020227/l27309139_2.html
Snippit:

JOHANNESBURG, Feb 27 (Reuters) - South African gold output tumbled in 2001 to its lowest since 1953 due to a drop in average grades, but is seen stabilising, the Chamber of
Mines said on Wednesday. Gold production slipped to 393,254 kg from 427,981 kg in 2000, the lowest since 1953's 371,395 kg, the Chamber's Chief Economist, Roger Baxter, said in a statement.

Black Blade: Less production coupled with no exploration to replenish reserves means a sharply lower supply going forward. And this is not only in SA - this is worldwide. Gold companies have been merging and this will probably continue as the majors have not been doing much as far as exploration is concerned.

uponroof

(02/27/2002; 08:09:59 MDT - Msg ID: 70818)

Japan.....phoney reforms not fooling the markets

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/dowjones/20020227/bs_dowjones/dollar_higher_against_yen_after_japan_plan_delivers_little"..Japan 's government promised a cleanup Wednesday of the bad debts crippling the nation's banks but failed to go beyond earlier promises in a keenly anticipated anti-deflation package. The measures were leaked to the press earlier, but the final announcements contained no new policy initiatives, therefore disappointing the market.

The plan "suggests the government either cannot or will not force through more significant reforms and it means it will continue to try muddling through its bad loan problem," said Marc Chandler, head of global currency strategy at HSBC in New York .

The move towards the key 135 yen threshold in the dollar/yen pair, has sparked debate "as to whether we're entering a new trading range," he said.

Mr. Greenspan could help accelerate a move up in the dollar/yen pair if - as expected - he delivers an upbeat assessment of the economy, in his twice-yearly report to Congress on monetary policy..."

uponroof-speaking of Greenspan, things are so bad these days might we get a reference or two of 'privatisation of Social Security' today? That's always good for a stock market bounce.
************

Black Blade can certainly handle himself and he needs no help from me but let me relate an incident he told me of awhile ago....

Johnny Cochran was duck hunting near his Wyoming wilderness preserve a few years ago, when he attempted to cross a fence into a field to retrieve a duck he had shot (bad move).

Black Blade, watching this from afar, suddenly pulled up in his pickup truck, jumped out, and asked Mr.Cochran what he was doing on his property. "Retrieving this duck that I just shot," he replied.

"That duck is on my side of the fence, so now it's mine," says Black Blade. " No one slays ducks on my property unless they ask me first"

So Cochran stated that the duck was in air off of his property but fell in. Then he asked him if he recognized who he was talking to. "No", says Black Blade, "I don't know and don't care."

"I'm Johnny Cochran, famous lawyer from Los Angeles," comes the reply. "I am the lawyer that got O.J. Simpson off. I'm the reason he is a free man today. And if you don't let me get that duck, I can sue you for your farm, your truck, and everything else you own. I'll leave you penniless on the street."

"Well," says Black Blade, "In these parts the only law we go by is the '3 kicks' law."

"Never heard of it," says Johnny.

Black Blade: "It works like this: I get to kick you 3 times, and if you make it back to your feet and are able to kick me back 3 times, that duck is yours."

Cochran thought this over. He grew up in a tough neighborhood and figured he could take the old outdoorsman "Fair enough", he said.

So Black Blade points to the sky, diverting Johnnys attention, then kicks him violently in the groin. As he's doubling over, he kicks him in the face, and when he hits the ground, he kicks him hard in the ribs. After several moments, Johnny slowly makes it back to his feet.

"All right....your kicks were hard licks. But now you hick, it's my turn to kick" says Johnny.

"Awww, forget it," says Black Blade. "You can have the duck..."

...and that's the only duck BB ever gave up. Politically Correct? You must be joking.
************

Jin-Yin and ALL...

I am also cultivating new interest in gold at 'other investment sites'...with some success. 'Success' simply because gold carries a truth with it that is undeniable. Discussion of gold has a way of finding it's way to the very core of economic matters, without contrived or biased guidance.

'Revelation' is the word that conveys the impact gold brings to those seeking deeper monetary understanding. The concepts are so deep seeded and radically different from today's mantra that it is difficult at first for life long 'paperbugs' to grasp.

We understand basic truths that others see as wild perhaps irresponsible thoughts. Fr'instance...if you are not an American in this current world economic scheme, you are nothing less than 'behind the eight ball'. Or that only gold protects from a falling dollar under current globalization. Bold statements that draw attention..and hold water.

There are several other 'truths', which we take for granted, which are eye openers to those unfamiliar.

Seek out intellectual forums with members who seek truth and ask questions.....gold will eventually shine at those sites. Forums of more fast paced posters involved in frantic day trading are too busy to build deeper knowledge. Not that there are a lot of day traders left out there. (which is why this is a good time to offer your thoughts)

These folks are the future gold herd. We do ourselves and others no great service when we explain the nuances of gold ad infinitum to each other at our own home site. We're already on board, no sense in beating a dead horse.

Share some of your time at other boards where your voice really matters. Use some of your time to help others who are perhaps searching. This insane financial climate has an alternative which has been carefully hidden from their view.

Plus, there's always something to learn from others.

C'mon, be the cartel's worst nightmare...get out and spread the word.

Pizz

(02/27/2002; 08:31:24 MDT - Msg ID: 70819)

(No Subject)

Belgian: Got a better place to put fiat?? (smile) You told me a few months back that one option the US had regarding the $ was "stubborn denial". I'll add "goin' down swinging" to your correct IMHO assumption. Pride commith before the fall. (When I typed this last sentence it came out first as "Price commith before the fall" - maybe both are right?)

Mr. Gresham: Thanks. What do you think we will do when (IMO) our European allies tell us where to go (tactfully of course). The EU has set up a pretty good base to "call a creditors committee" (behind closed doors of course) if we get too far out of line.

Black Blade: You said more with two words than most of us here could with two pages. Your intellect and wisdom show. Keep up the good work.

Pizz

USAGOLD Market Commentary

(02/27/2002; 08:40:18 MDT - Msg ID: 70820)

Some Speculation on Yesterday's Rally: Is It Likely to Continue? NEWS & VIEWS Update!

Available online to all clientele and prospective clientele, NEWS & VIEWS Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has again been updated.

Read the full commentary and related information here. (access codes required)

New visitors may review these selected portions provided at the Daily Market Report page. You may enjoy our 24-Hour NewsWire provided at this page, also.

admin

(02/27/2002; 09:47:48 MDT - Msg ID: 70822)

Black Blade. . . .

Sorry we didn't catch that sooner. No one should have to put with that nonsense. It never ceases to amaze us that someone who makes absolutely no contribution to this forum whatsoever sees fit to come on only to attack another poster -- and an important one at that. Carry on, good Sir.

A Canadian

(02/27/2002; 09:50:50 MDT - Msg ID: 70823)

BLACK BLADE & U.S.A GOLD ...........

.....have taught me more in 6 months than 4 yrs of business school !!!!

escapethematrix

(02/27/2002; 10:03:57 MDT - Msg ID: 70824)

Greenspan's Q&A session

CNBCIs it just me, or does it seem like just an incredible coincidence that CNBC felt the need break away from Greenspan's answer to Ron Paul's questions about the FED running the country in an Enron-like manner and then asking him about Gold's function in our wonderful monetary system??

Just as he was about to answer CNBC cuts away to visit another hearing with industry "analysts" (i.e. " corporate shills")Now, we are back to Greenspans Q&A but Mr. Paul's time has past, and AG's answer was not broadcast. Coincidence....Stupidity.....or something else??

Mr Gresham

(02/27/2002; 10:06:57 MDT - Msg ID: 70825)

Thought (not really very "deep") for the morning

When gold pops limit up, the commentators will refer to us as "those perennial goldbugs", the "stopped clock, which is right twice a day."

Stopped clock? Or alarm clock?

Siochain

(02/27/2002; 10:10:09 MDT - Msg ID: 70826)

New Homes sales largest drop since 1994

New home sales fell 14.8% well below estimates of a gain of 0.4% ....this is the biggest slide since 1994 ...and as we all know...it is the Consumer that has kept the SM up ...Yesterday confidence report was down...today drop in new homes sales

Just maybe people are waking up...though market now is pinning hopes that AG will come thru in today's speech...talk can only go so far.....without consumers and company profits...the SM cannot be sustained...no matter the smoke and mirrors

Waverider

(02/27/2002; 10:22:48 MDT - Msg ID: 70827)

Sir Black Blade

Thank you for your awesome contributions here. It is an honour to learn from you. Keep up the good work and I hope and trust that you'll have a good day. Cheers!
Waverider

Pizz

(02/27/2002; 10:47:05 MDT - Msg ID: 70828)

Mr. Gresham

Good thought. Now all we have to do is get a little "fair air time" so a few more people can hear the alarm. If CNBC keeps up their "selective broadcasting" . . . . Why didn't Congress ask a GE executive to go to the hill and sit with the overly bullish analysts? Aren't these analysts invited to come on?

Think GE Capital might be just a little hung out on the short side of Au and just a bit more with all their asset backed paper that's ready for a downgrade. GE puts lookin' better all the time. . . .

Pizz

darkhorse

(02/27/2002; 10:50:51 MDT - Msg ID: 70829)

Talk about a crowd that sticks together...

I challenge anybody to find a better site to hash out all the potentially explosive subjects (a persons finances, let alone their philosophies, is a touchy subject to most people) discussed here without getting into personalities and tit-for-tat Jr. High comeback remarks. On top of that, we like to take care of our own (not that anybody NEEDS it) when somebody does feel the need to turn up the heat. Some people should lurk here just to learn some manners...they might learn something about gold, the economy and their financial future while they're here! :) I'll be here as long as this stays the status quo. My hats off to everbody in the castle, and the whole staff running it!

Cavan Man

(02/27/2002; 10:51:14 MDT - Msg ID: 70830)

Need Help from Forum

What are the defining characteristics or functions of MONEY? I can only remember a couple:

1. Medium of exchange
2. Divisibility
3. Store of value (ha!)

Working on a 2nd grade presentation and need input today please. TIA....CM

Old Yeller

(02/27/2002; 10:53:46 MDT - Msg ID: 70831)

Tim Wood on gold market perceptions

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256B6D0001A4B9?OpenDocument
Good read,interesting points raised on funding the current account deficit.

escapethematrix

(02/27/2002; 11:13:23 MDT - Msg ID: 70832)

After the Collapse Of Enron:Next Comes The Cluster-Bust!

http://www.larouchepub.com/eirtoc/confpres/2002/pres_day/2908cluster_keynote.htmlThis presentation appears in the new issue of Executive Intelligence Review. I have always wondered why the mainstream media tries to ridicule, denigrate and marginalize Mr. Larouche.....But it becomes clear as one reads his work , it's because he tells the truth!! And of course, we can't have that, can we??

Snippets:

What is involved in Enron, and Enron's counterparties, according to the best estimates of leading experts in various parts of the world, is this: More than $100 trillion of notional value of financial derivatives are in the process of imploding! We're not talking about a $35 billion collapse; we're talking about a potential notional collapse in financial derivatives, of over $100 trillion, just because of the connections of the Enron collapse.

So, what happened, in the year 2000, coinciding with the collapse of the so-called "New Economy" bubble�. Remember, the New Economy was set into motion in 1995, and it collapsed in the year 2000, and it is disintegrating now. It collapsed in the Spring of the year 2000. It was then pumped up, by Plunge Protection money, but it collapsed again, in 2001, and it was the collapse of the New Economy bubble, before Sept. 11th, which caused the present financial collapse, leading to the Enron collapse, and what's coming out of that.

So, now we have come to a point that the entire system, from the top down, is in a process of self-disintegration. This is a situation, very much like, as I shall indicate, what happened in Weimar Germany in 1923, when a system of bubble-building, which had existed in Weimar Germany for more than a year�almost two years before then�which had not caused hyperinflation, suddenly, in the June-July period of 1923, began to become hyperinflationary. And, within less than five months from that point, the German reichsmark ceased, virtually, to exist; and was re-created by U.S. gold at a later point, under the Dawes Plan.
We're in a period like that, in which the system is in the process of coming down.
Now, this is the condition, which the United States economy reached during the Spring of the year 2000. At this point, the amount of financial aggregate, which had to be poured into the economy, under the Clinton program of Plunge Protection�the amount of aggregate that had to be poured in, to keep the stock market, and related financial markets from collapsing�exceeded the amount of endangered financial assets, which needed to be rolled over. This is exactly what happened to Germany, in June-July of 1923, in which the German bank had to print money, more rapidly, than was accounted for by the amount of assets it was rolling over. And that led to hyperinflation.
So, at this point, the U.S. financial system, in the Spring and Summer of 2000, went into a hyperinflationary mode. The real economy was collapsing at an accelerating rate. Look at the layoffs; look at the shutdowns, now ongoing. The physical economy is collapsing at an accelerating rate. The financial aggregate system�the market�is not. It is now collapsing. That is, the rate of expansion of financial market values, on stock markets and similar exchanges, is not rising, at the rate it was. And, since the value of these so-called "assets," was based on the rate of growth, a slowing of the rate of growth, means an inevitable slowing, dropping, of the yield on these investments. At the same time, to maintain these levels of these investments, by cutting Federal Reserve interest rates, for example, the amount of money that has to be poured in, is greater than the among of financial assets being supported, subsidized, by money-printing.

Now, if you have a system of this type, in which all of these characters are in these derivatives partnership deals�counterparty relationships�and they're entangled, like the biggest, dirtiest spider web you ever imagined�what happens is, when it starts to collapse, the whole thing comes down in a chain-reaction collapse. What we're dealing with now, is over $100 trillion of notional values in derivatives, sitting on top of a bubble, in which there's Global Crossing, and so forth. Many of these things like that, are in Bermuda or the Jersey Islands, or so forth. They're purely shell operations.

Shermag

(02/27/2002; 11:47:53 MDT - Msg ID: 70833)

Cavan Man: Defining characteristics or functions of MONEY

How about:

4. Transportability.
5. Some restraint on its reproducability.

Siochain

(02/27/2002; 11:54:28 MDT - Msg ID: 70834)

@ Cavan Man

http://mason.gmu.edu/~alockard/310ans1.htmThough not specific to your question...here are some school Q&A re money that may be useful (though you may take issue with a few answers)& gear to the grade level
http://mason.gmu.edu/~alockard/310ans1.htm

RobotGuy

(02/27/2002; 12:18:26 MDT - Msg ID: 70835)

Money idea

We all know that gold and silver were commonplace as a form of trade for all goods in the not too distant past. The reason we can't use the same method of trade today, is simply because of volume of currency world wide it such that we wouldn't be able to have enough of the precious metal to replace it...., unless.
Another major problem with paper money etc, is that it has a tendancy to wear out and is still easy for bandits to counterfeit even with our 'newest' anti counterfeiting properties...., unless.
Unless we were to create guaranteed alloys that could be verified by any laboratory, or even the latest metal detecting gizmos to have the required percentage of the various precious metals. In that manner, we would be able to make very durable alloys, and your money would be guaranteed to hold at least it's value in precious metals. Since we can calculate roughly the amount of currency used in the world, we should easily be able to calculate the varying percentages of precious metals in the currency.

On the upside you would have what you earned in your pocket. On the downside, we'd all have to start carrying change purses again.

Just a thought.

Rock

(02/27/2002; 12:42:48 MDT - Msg ID: 70836)

When you attack Black Blade you attack the table

i didnt read the post but i gathered by reading todays messages that some unknown came into our castle and disrespected one of the head knights of the round table. that kind of behavior is unacceptable. this is a very high caliber group of inteligent individuals whom i consider equilivant to quite a few professors of economics and finance whom offer their pearls of wisdom at no charge. like many who lurk here at what i call the "genius boards" i have come to learn much and add little.

let me say this to anyone who doesnt have the respect to enter into the castle of the wise and educated with at least the decency to listen and learn beware of your own ignorance, need i say more.

Rock

Cavan Man

(02/27/2002; 12:48:47 MDT - Msg ID: 70837)

Siochain and Shermag

Thanks! BTW, been to GMU....beautiful campus.

Operative

(02/27/2002; 12:48:57 MDT - Msg ID: 70838)

Greenspan Edit/CNBC

@ escapethematrix

Glad you mentioned the swift cut from Greenspan to the Enron hearing. I had been watching CNBC with audio turned off. Suddenly the affiable smiling of Greenspan changed. The camera switched to a shot of Greenspan leaning far back in his chair, smile gone, indeed a high brow scowl had taken its place. This cued me that something unpleasant for the Master of Disaster was accuring so I punched up the audio as the camera switched to the Senator's question. I caught most of the question that involved words like "fiat" (never hear that one mentioned!!) and referance to the part GOLD plays in the fiancial world. I thought finally, someone had the guts to ask a solid, sincere question (vs. the softball ala Larry King style questions). As I awaited the perturbed Greenspan answer, CNBC cut him off and switched to Enron.
I hope someone gets a transcrpit and posts it for all to read. Kudo's to the senator for introducing, attempting, to bring up the subject of fiat and gold. I would like to see a transcript of what was going on in the CNBC control room. Some producer screaming to "CUT AWAY!! CUT TO ENRON!!
Patience......Gold's Day will come in spite of all the cover-up, the game playing, the well timed media reports of sales and ships. Those with the Gold will indeed make the new rules.

RobotGuy

(02/27/2002; 13:41:15 MDT - Msg ID: 70839)

Greenspan and gold

Is there any way to find out if the question was answered? Is it possible he refused an answer? If there is a full dialogue available, I would really like to catch the remainder of this discussion as well. PLEASE POST!! I can't stop thinking that Greenspan had a secret indication to the news crew, that would cause them to cut away ("ok guys if I scratch my left eyebrow cut to a commercial"). Obviously gold is a very big topic right now with the number of countries buying larger than normal quantities. Why won't our public servants address these questions? What is the big secret they're concealing? Could it possibly be that they're adraid the public is going to realize that PMs arent just "commodities"?

Boilermaker

(02/27/2002; 13:50:17 MDT - Msg ID: 70840)

Cavan Man

http://www.321gold.com/fed/greenspan/1966.htmlHere's a good definition and background from Greenspan (in his former real life).

"Money is the common denominator of all economic transactions. It is that commodity which serves as a medium of exchange, is universally acceptable to all participants in an exchange economy as payment for their goods or services, and can, therefore, be used as a standard of market value and as a store of value, i.e., as a means of saving.

The existence of such a commodity is a precondition of a division of labor economy. If men did not have some commodity of objective value which was generally acceptable as money, they would have to resort to primitive barter or be forced to live on self-sufficient farms and forgo the inestimable advantages of specialization. If men had no means to store value, i.e., to save, neither long-range planning nor exchange would be possible.

What medium of exchange will be acceptable to all participants in an economy is not determined arbitrarily. First, the medium of exchange should be durable. In a primitive society of meager wealth, wheat might be sufficiently durable to serve as a medium, since all exchanges would occur only during and immediately after the harvest, leaving no value-surplus to store. But where store-of-value considerations are important, as they are in richer, more civilized societies, the medium of exchange must be a durable commodity, usually a metal. A metal is generally chosen because it is homogeneous and divisible: every unit is the same as every other and it can be blended or formed in any quantity. Precious jewels, for example, are neither homogeneous nor divisible. More important, the commodity chosen as a medium must be a luxury. Human desires for luxuries are unlimited and, therefore, luxury goods are always in demand and will always be acceptable. Wheat is a luxury in underfed civilizations, but not in a prosperous society. Cigarettes ordinarily would not serve as money, but they did in post-World War II Europe where they were considered a luxury. The term "luxury good" implies scarcity and high unit value. Having a high unit value, such a good is easily portable; for instance, an ounce of gold is worth a half-ton of pig iron.

In the early stages of a developing money economy, several media of exchange might be used, since a wide variety of commodities would fulfill the foregoing conditions. However, one of the commodities will gradually displace all others, by being more widely acceptable. Preferences on what to hold as a store of value, will shift to the most widely acceptable commodity, which, in turn, will make it still more acceptable. The shift is progressive until that commodity becomes the sole medium of exchange. The use of a single medium is highly advantageous for the same reasons that a money economy is superior to a barter economy: it makes exchanges possible on an incalculably wider scale.

Whether the single medium is gold, silver, seashells, cattle, or tobacco is optional, depending on the context and development of a given economy. In fact, all have been employed, at various times, as media of exchange. Even in the present century, two major commodities, gold and silver, have been used as international media of exchange, with gold becoming the predominant one. Gold, having both artistic and functional uses and being relatively scarce, has significant advantages over all other media of exchange. Since the beginning of World War I, it has been virtually the sole international standard of exchange. If all goods and services were to be paid for in gold, large payments would be difficult to execute and this would tend to limit the extent of a society's divisions of labor and specialization. Thus a logical extension of the creation of a medium of exchange is the development of a banking system and credit instruments (bank notes and deposits) which act as a substitute for, but are convertible into, gold."

Boilermaker;
You should probably take along some gold, silver, copper, etc. coins and a wad of the paper stuff. Don't let the little buggers steal any of it. Just for fun ask them if anyone knows who Alan Greenspan is.

Ulysses

(02/27/2002; 13:52:20 MDT - Msg ID: 70841)

AG-Enron-gold-Ron Paul

I don't think it's a coincidence that they switched out from Greenspan's answer to Ron Paul's question to another program. They're telling us something. They're telling us to take our money out of the banks and to put it somewhere safer because the dollar's going to hit the wall and we'll get Argentina type bank controls.Gold and/or euros sound like the safest things to hold.

sector

(02/27/2002; 13:53:45 MDT - Msg ID: 70842)

Bloomberg Commentary...But Tell Us What You Really Think!

02/26 01:01
Forget Reform -- CEOs Just Can't Handle the Truth: David Pauly
By David Pauly

New York, Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Pushing for fuller corporate disclosure following the Enron Corp. fraud is futile.

CEOs couldn't tell the whole truth if they had to.

Reared on a language notable for dissemblings, omissions and euphemisms, corporate executives are no longer capable of seeing reality.

Bill Gates, chairman of predatory Microsoft Corp., actually believes he's a benevolent dictator. Cisco Systems Inc.'s John Chambers truly thinks the wild prices he paid to acquire smaller companies were immaterial.

Dozens of asset-rich but poorly earning companies do believe ``pro forma'' earnings are real profits and that interest payments aren't real costs.

Bosses at discount retailer Kmart Corp. and copier maker Xerox Corp. have talked confidently about their companies' ``turnarounds.'' Do they know what a turnaround is?

Did Kmart's Chuck Conaway think the company's chapter 11 bankruptcy filing in January signaled a comeback? If Kmart was on the mend, why had it just hired two executives experienced in dealing with sick companies? Did Xerox's Anne Mulcahy consider her company's seven straight quarters of declining sales a good omen?

CEOs routinely put a gloss on bankruptcy, just as they bury losses deep in financial reports. It's not illegal, is it?

Who Me?

It's improbable that Tyco International Ltd. violated any law when it paid $20 million to a director and a charity he controlled for helping Tyco buy CIT Group Inc. last year -- or by withholding that information from investors until this past January. After all, what are lawyers for?

But the director, Frank E. Walsh Jr., was just doing his job. And he certainly had a conflict: He owned 50,000 CIT shares at the time he was helping Tyco buy the company.

A week after Kmart sought protection from its creditors, Global Crossing Ltd. -- which operates about 100,000 miles of fiber-optic cable under the seas -- did the same, with the same sense of unreality.

The five-year-old company founded by former Drexel Burnham Lambert Inc. executive Gary Winnick was saddled with $12.4 billion in debt and plagued by overcapacity and weak demand from telephone companies. It never earned a dime, losing $3.35 billion in the third quarter of 2001 alone.

Distraction

Still, Global Crossing led off the announcement of its failure by saying that two Asian telecommunications companies -- Hutchison Whampoa Ltd., controlled by Hong Kong businessman Li Ka- shing, and Singapore Technologies Telemedia Ltd. -- had agreed to buy control of the company for $750 million.

Oh, by the way, the company said in the next sentence, we're filing for chapter 11 protection.

What's more, rather than saying straight out that its shares, which once traded at $64.25, were now worthless, the company said, ``Existing common equity and preferred shareholders would not participate in the new capital structure.''

This isn't harmless butt covering. By refusing to call the destruction of net worth ``the destruction of net worth,'' executives lose their ability to deal with such a disaster. How can they deal with a problem if they don't see it for what it is?

CEOs exhibit what is becoming a universal disability. In 1995, Columbia University humanities professor Andrew Delbanco came out with a book called ``The Death of Satan: How Americans Have Lost the Sense of Evil'' (Farrar Straus & Giroux). By refusing to acknowledge evil by saying the word, we become impotent to deal with it, Delbanco said. Remember the impact President George W. Bush made after the Sept. 11 attacks when he called evildoers ``evildoers''?

CEOs may not be physically endangering lives, but their failure to confront their own failures puts their companies at risk. Bosses blame declining profits on the recession rather than on their own failure to plan -- or on their inability to motivate workers or to create new products and persuade consumers to buy them. CEOs simply can't handle the truth.
++++++++++++++++++++++
Corporate credibility is a huge anchor...dragging the DOW and everything else. There will be NO "recovery" until there is a massive rewrite of the SEC accounting rules and corporate officer penalty clauses...a THAT will happen when Greenspan does a Triple Lutz.
America is turning into Argentina...slowly to be sure.

Trapper

(02/27/2002; 13:59:09 MDT - Msg ID: 70843)

Anduril

Sir: It comes down to this. First you said silver is a poor investment we should only buy gold because all the big boys were buying gold. OK. Many of us say Mr. Buffet(Mr. Gates too) is a big player and he owns about 25% of all the above ground silver. Your response appears is to deride Buffet et al as some how not to be considered good examples. Please provide us all with the big guy whom you follow for gold investing advice. I would like to compare him to our guys and check out the track record. Mr Buffet had made some pretty fair money as in BRKa & BRKb over the years. As for the 60-1 ratio I would be glad the wager some gold vs. some silver that the ratio will go 50-1 before it goes to 70-1.
Live small.
RJ

RobotGuy

(02/27/2002; 14:12:36 MDT - Msg ID: 70844)

@Boilermaker

Great link!!

Seems to me Greenspan might be touchy on the subject given that good read, it must be in the back of his mind whenever anyone asks him about gold. Not allowed to express true feelings for the benefit of the people.

Boilermaker

(02/27/2002; 14:21:09 MDT - Msg ID: 70845)

Todat's SM Commentary

Just read the (AP) SM closing commentary that included this brief quote;

A.G. Edward's Goldman said that there was a tug of war in the market.

``The guys in the black hats are talking about a confidence crisis, led by Enron,'' Goldman said. ``The good guys are talking about the recovery. They'll win eventually, because the future always wins over history.''

Boilermaker;
Could you find a better reason to sell stocks? This guy is pathetic.

RobotGuy

(02/27/2002; 14:34:52 MDT - Msg ID: 70846)

@Biolermaker

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?column=Shades+of+Green&siteid=mktwUsing psychological tactics to try to stimulate worrisome investors, cause all the news is good according to this nut, investors are just feeling a little "schizoid" --- even goes so far as to try and prove it by getting a University professor of group behavior involved.

Ten Bears

(02/27/2002; 14:39:17 MDT - Msg ID: 70847)

test

test nm

ausome

(02/27/2002; 14:43:21 MDT - Msg ID: 70848)

AG on derivatives

Another, more conventional determinant of stability will be the economy's degree of leverage--the extent to which debt rather than equity is financing the level of capital. The proper degree of leverage in a firm, or in an economy as a whole, is an inherently elusive figure that almost certainly changes from time to time. Clearly, firms find some leverage advantageous in enhancing returns on equity, and thus moderate leverage undoubtedly boosts the capital stock and the level of output. A sophisticated financial system, with its substantial array of instruments to unbundle risks, will tend toward a higher degree of leverage at any given level of underlying economic risk. But, the greater the degree of leverage in any economy, the greater its vulnerability to unexpected shortfalls in demand and mistakes.

Indeed, on a historical cost basis, the ratio of debt to net worth for the nonfinancial corporate business sector did rise, from 71 percent at the end of 1997 to about 81 percent at the end of the third quarter of last year, though it is still well below its level at the beginning of the recession in 1990. The ratio of interest payments to cash flow, one indicator of the consequence of leverage, has crept up in recent years, reflecting growth in debt. However, owing to lower interest rates, it remains far below its levels of the early 1990s.

Although the fears of business leverage have been mostly confined to specific sectors in recent years, concerns over potential systemic problems resulting from the vast expansion of derivatives have reemerged with the difficulties of Enron. To be sure, firms like Enron, and Long-Term Capital Management before it, were major players in the derivatives markets. But their problems were readily traceable to an old fashioned excess of debt, however acquired, as well as to opaque accounting of that leverage and lax counterparty scrutiny. Swaps and other derivatives throughout their short history, including over the past eighteen months, have been remarkably free of default. Of course, there can be latent problems in any market that expands as rapidly as these markets have. Regulators and supervisors are particularly sensitive to this possibility. Derivatives have provided greater flexibility to our financial system. But their very complexity could leave counterparties vulnerable to significant risk that they do not currently recognize, and hence these instruments potentially expose the overall system if mistakes are large. In that regard, the market's reaction to the revelations about Enron provides encouragement that the force of market discipline can be counted on over time to foster much greater transparency and increased clarity and completeness in the accounting treatment of derivatives.

How these countervailing forces for stability evolve will surely be a major determinant of the volatility that our economy will experience in the years ahead. Monetary policy will have to be particularly sensitive to the possibility that the resiliency our economy has exhibited during the past two years signals subtle changes in the way our system functions.

Ten Bears

(02/27/2002; 14:56:06 MDT - Msg ID: 70849)

Levels of gov't. / media propaganda

In order of frequency of use:
(1) Omissions
(2) Irrelevancies
(3) Slants and Distortions
(4) Outright Lies

An example of #1 - Media omission of Greenspan's response to Congressman Paul's question.

Solomon Weaver

(02/27/2002; 15:27:02 MDT - Msg ID: 70850)

A defining characteristic

Cavan Man (02/27/02; 10:51:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 70830)
Need Help from Forum
What are the defining characteristics or functions of MONEY? I can only remember a couple:

1. Medium of exchange
2. Divisibility
3. Store of value (ha!)

Working on a 2nd grade presentation and need input today please. TIA....CM

. . . . . .
Don't forget this one.

My four year old daughter
Money is something that your dad keeps in his pocket and uses to buy candy.

uponroof

(02/27/2002; 15:40:28 MDT - Msg ID: 70851)

Greenspan's Testimony in full.....

http://inside.c-spanarchives.org:8080/cspan/cspan.csp?command=dscheduleCSPAN 8:55 est tonight.

Don't get your hopes up. Doublespeak is his native tongue. I'm more interested in hearing Paul's question....the tone, the emphasis etc.

Solomon Weaver

(02/27/2002; 15:53:05 MDT - Msg ID: 70852)

All that glitters is not gold.....all those who wander are not lost.

Mr Anduril has no harsh words for silver.....he simply loves the sport of taking a stance on an easy theme...gold, by and large and in the long run is the king.....but today, the ratio is meaningless because the "prices" of both metals are sold short by leasing.

Silver, for the japanese housewife who has a pick-up truck might still be a worthy investment....but she will have a hard time finding a bank that will get her the material.

What makes silver unique today is that it was removed as coin (creating massive inventories) just about the time the world moved to needing a lot of silver for industry.

The official silver count today comes out to about 1 year of global production.....the official gold count is about 50 years of today's production.....simply noted....as gold begins to move in price, there is plenty of gold to move to new owners.....but with silver there is really not enough left around to make an honest market with.

Silver has experienced a much lower level of "positive" investment demand than gold. One very important point is that the gold and silver carry trades (leasing) although they have driven the price of both metals down, are actually massive expressions of "investment demand"....why do I say this? The metal moves in reaction to an investment intention...(lease and sell short)...that appears as a supply excess...but creates a future buy demand.

I noticed in today's paper that a Hong Kong Tycoon will invest $750 million in Global Crossing Asia. This is about the same amount of money that Mr. Buffet spent on silver in 1997. Back then, with vault silver in the region of 1 billion ounces, Mr. Buffet was only able to take delivery on a little more than half of what he bought (the rest had to be rolled into leases). Now, 5 years later, with 500-800 million ounces of silver left around, what would happen if someone tried to buy $500 million worth of silver and take delivery?

Anduril....please continue to debate us about silver...but make no wagers on that ratio....because we are in a very unique situation....and if ANY demand from the small guy for silver comes back....well.

POS

Boilermaker

(02/27/2002; 16:14:37 MDT - Msg ID: 70853)

Gas Guzzling Gringos

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020227/business_energy_gasoline_demand_dc_1.htmlSnippit;

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. drivers are burning up gasoline at breakneck pace, cutting down supplies during a time of year they normally grow as travelers choose the highway over the runway, energy analysts said on Wednesday.
ADVERTISEMENT

``To the extent that people aren't flying since the Sept. 11 attacks, they're driving instead,'' said Aaron Brady, analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Boston.

Gasoline consumption over the past four weeks has averaged 8.374 million barrels per day (bpd), 2.5 percent above the same period last year, while jet fuel demand has averaged 9 percent below last year, according to the U.S. Department of Energy.

The robust gasoline demand, bolstered by the increasing popularity of gas-guzzling Sport Utility Vehicles (SUVs), mostly mild winter weather and lower pump prices, has helped boost petroleum prices, hit by the economic recession and low home heating oil use.

``Gasoline demand has been a very strong element,'' said John Cogan, downstream analyst at DOE's Energy Information Administration, which expects U.S. gasoline demand in 2002 to average 2.4 percent higher than last year, even as demand for other products declines.

``The fact that Americans are still buying SUVs suggests that gasoline demand will continue to be strong in the coming years,'' said ESAI's Brady. Light truck buying soared in the months after the Sept. 11 attacks when automobile dealers offered financing deals.

Supply reports released by the EIA and American Petroleum Institute (API) for last week each showed large declines in U.S. gasoline stockpiles, with the EIA report showing a decline of 1.1 million barrels during the week ended Friday, Feb. 22, and the API showing a decline of 2.1 million barrels.

Boilermaker;

I did my part for the OPEC cause yesterday, bought a 96 Blazer to eventually replace my 92 Taurus. Actually my wife won't let me use her SUV anymore because of my alleged auto abuse tendencies. The Taurus still runs fine but it won't pull my trailer. Fill your tank now prices are headed up very soon.

mikal

(02/27/2002; 16:23:53 MDT - Msg ID: 70854)

Gold and silver

Solomon Weaver and Anduril: Thank you for your posts today! Very articulate, original, and enjoyable. Solomon, do you see the parallel world of precious for poor nations and people. I mean, even as of gold revalues and reemerges in modern use and thought, I see developing interest in silver, its consumption in North America and worldwide such as the new Arab silver denarii and the beautiful and Mexican Libertad. Despite its bulkiness in large amounts, small amounts will always go very far in medicine, industrial, and monetary use. And as you state so well, its price and supply have been manipulated to our advantage. Actually an unprecedented situation of severe shortage and unsustainably low prices-low enough to close mines and hinder supply well into the future. Like the sun and the moon, gold and silver will always shine together.

R Powell

(02/27/2002; 16:28:26 MDT - Msg ID: 70855)

Was GATA watching (waiting) for Paul's questions?

Thanks, uponroof, for the link to the Greenman's testimony. My first reaction to hearing that the peoples' stock market television channel choose not to give us Mr. Greenspan's answer to Mr. Paul's question was that GATA would not let this exchange go unreported. I'll be very surprised if Chris Powell doesn't give us the details.
Yo, Chris, are you out there?
******
Cavan Man,
Perhaps you might add that fiat paper requires acceptance or confidence. As in, for 2nd grade, if you wash my car I'll buy you that toy you been wishing for but you'll have to take this paper to the store to exchange for the toy. After the car is washed!
Rich

mikal

(02/27/2002; 16:41:28 MDT - Msg ID: 70856)

@Anduril

mikal

(02/27/2002; 16:54:01 MDT - Msg ID: 70857)

@Anduril

Your post was very reassuring and reminiscent of Trail Guide I am very impressed by such Euro and gold discussion here and elsewhere. It is rare that we see such thorough and unemotional treatment of that topic, especially now with so much pressure to be patriotic and loyal to the "almighty dollar". I continue to weight my purchases towards AU, expecting it to hold its value with greater price appreciation and stability than silver.

mikal

(02/27/2002; 17:09:57 MDT - Msg ID: 70858)

Re: Greedspam

Every cloud has a silver lining, but CNBC just handed us another gold one. Considering that viewers were treated to an enticing and pointed accusation against their overlords, tickling their curiosity, that alone was GOOD. But, mind you, they were spared from the distracting and hypnotic Greenspeak, which to me causes intellectual vertigo and nausea.

Black Blade

(02/27/2002; 17:24:14 MDT - Msg ID: 70859)

Analyst Testimony Before Congress

I have been looking over some of the testimony in congress where some Wall Street analysts made the claim "we weren't provided adequate information". That of course is an outright lie. Simply put, it was easy to see what was happening at Enron. These analysts are either complicit in the Enron fraud or are simply inept and therefore have no place being employed on Wall Street as corporate analysts.
It does not require that one be a rocket scientist to see that at its peak Enron traded at 267 times earnings! That cash flow was negative! That top management was selling out shares en masse! That the earnings picture was somewhat opaque (to put it mildly).

The first rule of investing is if a company won't come clean with good hard numbers - then run! Run like the blazes! I have noticed similar curious activities and outrageous earnings statement as far as the shares of Qwest, Amazon.com, and Global Crossing shares are concerned.

I have been attacking analysts here on this forum for well over a couple of years. My conclusions are based on simple observations. These analysts seem to have lost touch with reality in many cases. They apparently are part of a coordinated "pump and prime" scheme where their employers and the management of the companies that they follow refuse to be honest with the shareholder on the true health of the company. We can apparently also add corporate accountants in the case of Arthur Andersen (so far).

I supposed that the "I was duped" defense is all that they have at this point. Somehow I don't think that they could find that many inept people to occupy space on Wall Street. I believe that the real reasons are a bit more nefarious than that.

- Black Blade

The Invisible Hand

(02/27/2002; 17:42:56 MDT - Msg ID: 70860)

Earnings & Profit

Do these two words mean the same thing?

R Powell

(02/27/2002; 18:13:31 MDT - Msg ID: 70861)

Anduril

Gold and Silver From Anduril's 70809,
"Know now and know surely that harsh words previously offered were for hard heads alone; the softness of a silvery metal does not warrant such keen emotion that you would here have it recieve."
Rich: Study and research should not be tainted with preconceived conclusions and I must remember to remain objective in evaluating all information. Having in my possession some silver coins has created a fondness for the softness of the silvery.

"Would you have any rational man pause in his day to love (or hate) a rock for being as nature devised?"
Rich: No, but I would ask the rational man to be aware of the rock and aware of its nature devised characteristics.

"And yet also, a fool is he that looks at silver, seeing silver only."
Rich: Myself, I see the economic opportunity of a vastly underpriced asset.

Concerning again, the silver to gold ratio which you mention has fallen from 12:1 to 60:1, I'll reply again that I don't find this extremely important among the long list of fundamental facts that have led me to conclude that silver is now grossly underpriced. The issue of the value ratio of gold to silver is in no way relevant to the future fiat evaluation of silver. What is IMHO important are the laws of supply and demand, the health of the local and world economies, and the psychology of investors (flow of money).

"Against gold, silver will not reclaim the high ground it once knew."
Rich: I'm not looking for or advocating any advance against gold. I don't see the two in any kind of competition. I consider both money and both precious metals but not as adversaries other than perhaps as to which might firstdouble or triple in price. Against gold, no! But against fiat both gold and silver will reclaim the high ground. Federal fiat subject to failure is the common adversary. I'm hoping to see the fiat devalue against both silver and gold. I do not wish for a paper monetary crisis, I just hope to see honest money which requires control and restraint with value set against a real standard, one beyond the government's control to alter at will.
Anduril, that I love silver as a hand held metal and an important economic opportunity is obvious. This does not mean that I don't like gold!
Rich

R Powell

(02/27/2002; 18:32:12 MDT - Msg ID: 70862)

Black Blade

Complicit in fraud or simply inept? Your opinion favors the complicit in fraud. Concerning these Wall St. analysts, some of them, yes! But, for many of them, perhaps you have overestimated their competence.
Stated another way, when Abbey Cohen speaks, does she believe her own words or does she believe otherwise. As far as "duped" goes, does Gabby Abbey have any real personal opinion as to where the market index numbers will be at any time in the future? Whatever, her stage presence and presentation are the reasons she appears in front of the camera, no?
Some complicit, some inept, some knowingly duped, some unknowingly duped and some didn't care and never will!
I'm glad we do.
Rich

mikal

(02/27/2002; 19:20:38 MDT - Msg ID: 70863)

Re: Job performance

If we have a world where a high degree of personal responsibility is reflected in the quality of public performance in delivery of quality goods and services, then there should be far less need for regulations, lawyers, and lawsuits. Financial services that include advice are provided under conditions of risk, known to us, but intentionally hidden and/or unknown by "professionals".

R Powell

(02/27/2002; 19:26:22 MDT - Msg ID: 70864)

Invisible Hand

There are many here who are better qualified than I to answer the question but, I believe, earnings are associated with the total number of outstanding shares. I think this as earnings are presented as dollars and cents per share.
Profit brings to mind that number left after all monies spent doing business are subtracted from all monies earned doing business during a specific time period. I guess profit divided by outstanding shares might equal earnings per share. Profit is that number you inflate when reporting to shareholders and that number you deflate when reporting to the Internal Revenue Service.
In regards to the POG quessing contest, we was robbed!
Rich

TownCrier

(02/27/2002; 19:28:59 MDT - Msg ID: 70865)

Especially for our Ron Paul watchers:

Here is the Federal Document Clearing Service transcription from the question-and-answer session following Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's testimony today (a remnant of Humphry-Hawkins) to the U.S. House Financial Services Committee.
-----------------
REP. RON PAUL (R-TEXAS): Welcome, Chairman Greenspan. I want to start by referring to a speech you gave on January at the American Numismatic Society, where you spoke profoundly about monetary policy, where you expressed that central bankers have had this relative success over the past decades, and it raises hopes that the fiat monetary system can be managed in a responsible way. So I think you're still at that point of hoping that this system will work. I maintain that the jury is still out on whether fiat money will work on the long term.

And then you foiled it up by saying, in case it didn't work -- and I don't know whether you had tongue in cheek or not about this, but you said that we might have to go back to seashells and oxen as our medium of exchange. And then you reassured everybody that the open discount window would have an adequate supply of oxen.

Chairman Oxley, if we get this point, which I suspect we will some day, I ask you that we have hearings to debate the issue of what medium of exchange that we have before the Fed starts using oxen as a medium of exchange.

HOUSE FINANCIAL SERVICES COMMITTE CHAIRMAN OXLEY: Are you referring to the chairman here?

PAUL: Yes. I hope that you will at least consider that. But I think it is an important point, and I relate that to the Enron issue, because in many ways I think the system that you have been asked to manage it's similar to being asked to manage an Enron system. Because Congress is notoriously in favor of deficit spending; we are currently expanding the national debt at $250 billion a year and we have nearly a $6 trillion debt.

Now, we create that debt by buying votes. We spend a lot of money.

Now, the Federal Reserve comes in and they buy that debt in order to maintain the interest rate that they think is the right interest rate, and they take that and use it as an asset. You put it in the bank, you call this debt that we created as an asset, and you use it as collateral for our Federal Reserve notes.

So that's a pretty good scheme. And I think in the moral terms, as well as the economic terms, it's very similar to what the Enron - how Enron operates.

I'm not convinced this system works very well, because a lot of people here praise you for the adequate amount of liquidity -- and that's what inflation is: create more money, lower interest rate. Every time you ask for liquidity, every time you ask for lower interest rates, you're asking for inflation of the money supply.

And I think what we fail to do is every ask about the cost. Do we ever concern ourselves about the people who have had two-thirds of their income removed because they happened to be savers and living off interest, we gouge them with inflation, the loss of purchasing power, as well as taxing that, and yet a lot of people in this country have suffered from that particularly system?

Now, the analogy I would like to draw is something you said in your testimony on page 13, and you have mentioned several times now that Enron may be a good lesson. And I think it is. And I'm not for more of this regulation by SEC. I think you're correct that derivatives provide a market tool that is worthwhile.

But you said, "The Enron decline is an effective illustration of the vulnerability of a firm whose market value largely rests on capitalized reputation, with very little, if no, physical assets." That's exactly what our monetary system is all about, and that's what I believe the dollar is vulnerable.

We in Congress do not have a responsibly to run Enron. Some other government has a responsibility to deal with fraud. We have a responsibility to the dollar. And I think that's what we fail so often to address around here.

And you said that, "Enron provides encouragement that the force of market discipline can be counted on over time to foster a much greater transparency." That's exactly what the market does with money. If you look at the rapid and the sudden devaluations of the fiat currencies around the world, if you look at what happened to us in '79 and '80, that was the market coming in and forcing vulnerability and transparency on us.

Now, gold gives you a hint as to what's happening. Gold has sent a mild message in this past year, in spite of the fact that central banks and others continually sell and loan out gold and pushing the price of gold down. But there is a message there. So I would ask you, can you see any corollary whatsoever on what you're asked to do in running our monetary system to that which Enron was involved in?

FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRMAN ALAN GREENSPAN: I hope there are fundamental differences. I mean, there are -- first, dealing with essentially a fiat currency, what it is that we are doing is that the currency is granted value by fiat of the sovereign, as it is said in the textbooks. The issue there is that, in years past, there's been considerable evidence that fiat currencies have been mismanaged in general and that inflation has been too often the result.

What I was mentioning in the speech that you were referring to is the fact that there is some evidence that we're learning that lesson, learning how to manage a fiat currency. I've always had some considerable skepticism about whether that in the long run can succeed, but I must say to you, the evidence of recent decades is that it has been succeeding. Whether that continues is a forecast which I can't really project on.

The Enron situation is essentially one in which there was an endeavor to imply that earnings were much greater than they really, that increasing debt was hidden.

I think of no reason to have done what they did with their off-balance-sheet transactions other than to obscure the extent of the debt they had. And what essentially was squandered in that process was the reputational capital which they had succeeded in achieving over a period of time.

And I don't perceive that anything that we are doing as a central bank involves anything related to that. I hope that where we need to be transparent and indicate what we are doing, we do so, and we so except in those areas where it, as I mentioned to you previously, inhibits the ability to actually function as a central bank. But as I say in summary, I hope your analogy is inappropriate.

Christian

(02/27/2002; 19:38:49 MDT - Msg ID: 70866)

We've all been had!!!!!

Credit creation through financial engineering. Credit creation gold trades seperate from commodity gold. Prominent wall street firms, news columnists, central bankers and others talk about gold as a dead relic of the past and a stupid investment in these modern times. There is a reason for it. Gold currency limits money creation by banks which in turn limits bank profits. Gold currency would limit the FED in credit creation. Money creation is extraordinarly profitable. That is why they use credit creation gold priced at $9,000. They want it for themselves. Why share a good thing. Same goes with silver. Greenspan and company is paying China $18.00 worth of fiat for every ounce of silver China is willing to sell in order to keep our price of silver down. Same goes with gold. We the people are so stupid that we hope to profit on the price move up when we should be creating our own credit instead of sucking up to the bank for a bank loan. All the central bankers are doing is selling the gold to each other for credit creation. We the people should be doing that ourselves. Just how stupid can a hope to be homeowner be to borrow a $100,000 from a bank and pay 7% interest, only to have that loan bundled into a bond and sold to the FED at a cost to them of $250.00. We the people are so stupid, we deserve to be taken. Financial slavery, like physical slavery should be abolished.........

(02/27/2002; 19:50:05 MDT - Msg ID: 70867)

Full Moon

The Dow forms a doji star on the daily chart and the Nasdaq forms a bearish engulfing pattern...both indicate indecision and are good signs of reversals. Coincidence that tonight is the brightest full moon of the year??? We'll find out tomorrow.

G$

R Powell

(02/27/2002; 19:56:01 MDT - Msg ID: 70868)

TownCrier

Thanks for finding that!
I find it noteworthy that Mr. Greenspan holds his lofty and powerful position while freely admitting that the success of a fiat currency is (in his opinion) still in doubt. I admire his honesty in so stating. Perhaps he would reply that he is just stating the obvious. Surely he must know that obvious to him is obtuse to much of the population. He states that the survival of fiat is still in doubt when he knows the mainstay of fiat is confidence.
Does anyone know, offhand, the current gold to oxen ratio?
Thanks again. You beat Chris to it!
Rich

darkhorse

(02/27/2002; 20:11:27 MDT - Msg ID: 70869)

@Christian

I understand what you're trying to say, and I agree to a point. But let's put your point into perspective, shall we? First of all, TPTB that are doing what you're describing have the education, knowledge, etc to do such things; sorta like the requirements of proving guilt of a crime...means, motive and opportunity. We Joe Six-packs lack at least two of them; we all have the motive...nobody wants to be beholden to anybody. You're comparing apples to oranges. If we KNEW exactly what they were up to, do you really believe nothing would be done to prevent it? If we had the MEANS to stop it from happening, do you really believe we wouldn't? If we had the OPPORTUNITY to stop/slow them down (GATA?!) do you think we wouldn't at least try? I've been severely disappointed by "the masses" here in the US; they put somebody into the most powerful office in the world that has no morals, no honor and nothing but contempt for the people he was to be serving. But to insult EVERYbody, just because it's become popular among the lemmings...uh, sheeple...uh, masses to let other people do your thinking for you, is wrong. I believe there's a significant portion of that WE you talk about that would try (and is trying) to stop TPTB in their tracks. Evidence these days suggests that just may be happening, whether it's totally or even just in part because of WE Joe Six-packs. My cynical side argues we have gotten ourselves into this, that's how I understand what you're conveying in your post. But the eternal optimist side says God is still in control, still on our side and WE will still come out on top. Here's to praying for the best and preparing for the worst!

slingshot

(02/27/2002; 20:11:45 MDT - Msg ID: 70870)

Oxen to Gold Ratio

Rumor has it.That the Gold to Oxen Ratio is the same as the Silver Ratio to Gold.
If you buy a working team.

Slingshot

darkhorse

(02/27/2002; 20:15:13 MDT - Msg ID: 70871)

@slingshot

That got a :) at the end of the third Monday this week!

goldquest

(02/27/2002; 20:16:18 MDT - Msg ID: 70872)

TownCrier

My thanks also for the Ron Paul, Greenspan Q&A session.
Greenspan: "...what it is that we are doing is that the currency is granted value by fiat of the sovereign..."
Sovereign: 1, one having supreme power; a monarch. 2a Brit. gold coin worth one pound.
Once again, Greenspan talks in riddles!

Black Blade

(02/27/2002; 20:17:44 MDT - Msg ID: 70873)

DEAF, DUMB, & BLIND

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htmMarket Wrap Up - Puplava

Snippit:

Wall Street analysts today told a Senate panel they maintained "buy" rating on Enron Corp. as it slid toward bankruptcy because the company misled them. Their strong buy rating had nothing to do with lucrative investment banking relationships their firms had with Enron. Senators remained skeptical that analysts could separate investment banking relationships from objective analysis. In other words, if we are to believe the analysts, they were operating deaf, dumb, and blind. That is a scary thought. Only one analyst issued a sell recommendation on Enron and it cost him his job. One Senator, a former stock broker, said that if the analysts expect the Senators to believe their story, they were in effect asking for the government to intercede. Another Senator, also in the business said, "I was in your business, some of the things you are telling us are very difficult to believe. I find it very difficult to accept, that you can have information in you mind and put up a wall." Eleven out of 16 analysts rated Enron as a buy or strong buy as late as November 8th. Congress is now looking into conflicts of interest and complaints that Wall Street firms misled investors in making rosy projections during the IPO boom of the late 90's

Black Blade: A good synopsis of the testimony on Capital Hill. I guess the question is - are these analysts deceptive crooks or are they just inept bumpkins? I see no other explaination. I see a lot of angry investor lawsuits in their future and in the future for many related investment companies.

TownCrier

(02/27/2002; 20:22:55 MDT - Msg ID: 70874)

"Now I'm not going to say what is in the media. The media is a very significantly controlled operation." -- A.Greenspan, Feb. 27 2002

Rich, thanks for the "Thanks".
I'm sure you'll join others around here in getting a kick out of this comment to come from today's testimony (he was responding to Vermont's Rep. Bernard Sanders). In fact, I can picture a bunch of folks joining MK at the RoundTable who are able to give this comment a smile and a knowing nod. Not only have we discussed it before, but if my recollection is correct, we've even sponsored a contest about this subject -- the media.

R.

Black Blade

(02/27/2002; 20:34:58 MDT - Msg ID: 70875)

Asia - A Tale of Two Markets

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
The Hang Seng is diving hard and fast tonight losing over 200 points. Meanwhile the Nikkei charges higher over 200 points. The rules effectively banning short selling seems to have a continuing effect of pushing prices higher. The question is what happens when this liquidity is used up? The problem of insolvent Japanese banks remains. "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade

slingshot

(02/27/2002; 20:42:55 MDT - Msg ID: 70876)

TownCrier Msg# 70874

Greenspan to Dr. Goebels.Hey Joe, I think we have a leak in our security.

Slingshot

Chris Powell

(02/27/2002; 20:56:33 MDT - Msg ID: 70877)

Details on the Paul-Greenspan exchange

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1026Details on the exchange today between U.S. Rep.
Ron Paul and Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan
before the House Financial Services Committee:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1026

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Waverider

(02/27/2002; 21:54:08 MDT - Msg ID: 70878)

Plunge Protection may Plunge the Economy into the Loo

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/willettalway030102.htmlSnippit:
"When considering that earlier in February Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokaw confirmed Japan's newly formed 'stock buying body' would intervene (buy stocks) when needed, 'suspicion' hardly seems like the most appropriate word. Moreover, when considering that the Japanese 'SBB' officially started operations on Friday February 22 with 4 Trillion Yen at their disposal ($15.15 billion in 02, and 03) it would appear that further mention of 'suspect' trades will no longer be the course de jour. Rather, the fact is that Japanese officials are aiming to legitimize their newly formed organization of plunge protectors."

Waverider: A great article examining the merits of the Japanese PPT, including analogies with the American counterpart. To plunge or not to plunge...timing the plunge...and...[I love this]...the honesty of a plunge! Cheers,
Waverider

Galearis

(02/27/2002; 22:26:19 MDT - Msg ID: 70879)

@ Rich vs Anduril on Gold and Silver

There really is no point in discussing this....The end of a commodity, especially one that is a precious metal, surely has only one destination: obscurity.

It's obvious, isn't it?

5000 years of history saw it as a monetary asset where whole continents were explored for it, whole civilizations built on it and whole civilizations destroyed for it, saw it hoarded as the toil-savings of most of the world's population, saw it in early real currencies, saw it worn as cherished jewellry, saw it honoured in religious artifacts, saw it used as vital components of the echnological/information age and in medicine; all this rich history of human effort and greed has seen this nobel precious metal reduced from billions of ounces in fifty years to a palltry five hundred million ounces remaining today. All surely to be written off as a quaint footnote in human history.

The world will sigh and say: "Well, it isn't with us anymore, and if we can't buy it anymore, it isn't worth anything. So let's just ignore it and go live in a cave."

(smile)

Things are never exactly as they were before and history repeating is partly a myth. What is coming has never happened before, and that is why this time will be different. Really different. There has always been gold and much more silver and for the first time ever, there is gold and almost no silver. Think on THAT!

Best regards,

G.

Waverider

(02/27/2002; 23:16:11 MDT - Msg ID: 70880)

U.S. says Venezuela military ponders coup

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/134411652_venezuela27.htmlSnippit:
"Signs of military discontent against Venezuela's controversial leader grew yesterday when a Bush administration official said military officers have sounded out American diplomats about U.S. reaction to a possible coup attempt against President Hugo Chavez.

Chavez recently alienated many in his political base � the poor and working class � by slashing the budget by 22 percent and floating the Venezuelan currency, the bolivar, in a bid to boost imports and lure back foreign investors who have fled his reforms.

The 23 percent drop this month in the bolivar's value has increased prices so sharply that economists predict 30 to 40 percent inflation this year.

Many in the armed forces in particular resent Chavez's distancing of Venezuela from traditional allies such as the United States, and his political ties with Cuba and leftist Colombian rebels."

Waverider: Today Moody's cut the country's ratings outlook from stable to negative and thousands demonstrated calling for Chavez to resign. It appears that a coup may be inevitable.

WAC (Wide Awake Club)

(02/27/2002; 23:48:43 MDT - Msg ID: 70881)

@Christian - Financial slavery, like physical slavery should be abolished.........

Who said Physical Slavery as been abolished? This is a very profitable business and hence it continues. Okay, you may not see them in ball & chain, but it literally continues to thrive. In other places, it as been re-badged. I think they now refer to it as "Independence"

tedw

(02/28/2002; 00:00:42 MDT - Msg ID: 70882)

Tip

Information is circulating that a well-known mining exploration company which had previously found platinum/paladium on its North American property has
had new discoveries of platinum.

Posting guidelines do not allow me to name the company but if you follow such things you probably know who I am talking about.

A word to the wise is sufficient

Solomon Weaver

(02/28/2002; 00:08:53 MDT - Msg ID: 70883)

Fly me to the moon and let me dance among the stars....

mikal (02/27/02

Solomon, do you see the parallel world of precious for poor nations and people. I mean, even as of gold revalues and reemerges in modern use and thought, I see developing interest in silver, its consumption in North America and worldwide such as the new Arab silver denarii and the beautiful and Mexican Libertad. Despite its bulkiness in large amounts, small amounts will always go very far in medicine, industrial, and monetary use. And as you state so well, its price and supply have been manipulated to our advantage. Actually an unprecedented situation of severe shortage and unsustainably low prices-low enough to close mines and hinder supply well into the future. Like the sun and the moon, gold and silver will always shine together.

. . . .

Mikal...your question ends with my most important view...shared I believe by Rich and Galearis and others here.

I think many of the silver hounds here have come to understand the phenomenal short to mid term chances for silver, based on extreme and entrenched supply deficits in silver which have been compensated by large reserves and robust scrap recovery. The reserves are now mostly gone.

The silver game and the gold game are two very different things, and as things wake up, there is very little chance that the two move in tandem, without some dramatic divergences.

First lets look at gold: Worldwide estimate of about 125,000 tons....let's say 100,000 is in a form that would respond to monetary demand (include the chain on the neck of an Indian bride which serve as a form of dowry). At today's price of $10 million per ton, we would say there are about $1 trillion worth of gold. Now, compare that to a worldwide value for semi-liquid assets (from cash to money market accounts to herds of goats) that probably add up to around $50 trillion. One might reasonably say that the world has only about 2% of her liquidity tied up in gold. And since much gold is concentrated in the hands of organisations who need to create fiat liquidity and collateral, the average world citizen probably has much less than 1% of his liquidity tied up in gold.

So, if gold comes back as a store of value and as a real liquidity holding, it is easy to see how it could make a strong rise over a period of years to hold closer to 10-15% of global liquidity and value store... and a 10 fold increase in true purchase power value. Since such a move in gold is likely to hurt USD the most, I see no reason to believe gold might not move up to $5000 USD and stay there for quite a while....and since even a very aggressive gold mining industry would hardly add more than about 2% per annum more gold to the current system, it is unlikely to have mines tip the supply scale too quickly. In that scenario, with gold at several $1000 per ounce, even single gold ounces are likely to circulate in the background.

In this case, silver coin could see a certain resurgence in popularity (but I doubt it will be able to come back as national coinage), and it will obey Greshams law...silver the bad coin will push gold the good coin into hiding...rightly so because silver will be very volatile and not very reliable as a "savings".

Unlike gold (which contrary to popular opinion never lost its role as monetary and liquidity player), silver in the modern age was stripped of its role as coin, and replaced first by copper clad and aluminum, and now by digital bits.

Beyond a few beautiful numismatics, and some millions of commemoratives worth a few pennies over melt value, silver should now only be considered based on the value is serves mankind as a precious commodity. The situation in silver is simply that during a 50 year period in which there has been steadily increasing demand for silver in hundreds to thousands of modern conveniences (photos, electrical and electronic, medical, etc) sold internationally to exponentially increasing numbers of people particpating in the modern economy, the mining industry has not developed silver production, since large standing inventories covered well for supply deficits. The effect of rising silver prices will be to dramatically reduce zinc and copper prices, and much of the mining industry will face potential bankruptcy, depending on their hedges and their silver content.

I have no doubt that given the right silver price (stable), the mining industry will be able to turn around in about 5- 10 years and come back into a modest surplus. But before that happens, based on the very low levels of silver now, the large potential demand as leased metal is repurchased (and lease rates rise to very high constants), the negative effect of silver hedge (forward sale) contracts on mining companies, and the demand surge as industrial users move from just-in-time purchases of silver or leased silver to actual ownership of forward requirements (stocking), we are very likely to experience a strong enough surge in prices to remind us of the Hunt Brother days.....and with Icon Warren Buffet now in the picture, and to be touted as the clever guy who cornered the market by paying cash and waiting 5 years for the market to shrink until he had most of it, the pundits and analysts will be certain to claim that silver long term resistance is at about $50/OZ, with $100 an easy target.

Now, of course, there are paper tigers in silver who will do their best to paper over their losses by shorting silver as ever...but their demise will be that, unlike in the gold market where the large gold pool encourages most long bets to be leveraged paper trades looking for fiat exits, the very tight silver metal supply will drive things towards proof of physical. And since there is a very large pool of silver users who really need silver and cannot take fiat instead, and no major sources of real silver to dump into the market to handle the volatile prices....well.

There are about 4 billion ounces of gold in the world, and we are adding about 75 million more ounces per year...gold supply rises.

There are about 1 billion ounces of silver in the world, and we are removing about 100-200 million per year...silver supply shrinks.

The longer this goes on, the higher the chances that when both the moon and the sun are unlocked, that the moon sees a much stronger run. Could the sun temporarily orbit round the moon??

Anyone who watched a NASDAQ stock go from $0.50 per share to $75 per share in less than 1 year (15,000%) understands what an irrational feeding frenzy is....anyone who can't see that silver is ripe for a feeding frenzy can happily put his wealth in gold. I'll be more than happy to haul a 1000 OZ lot of silver down to cash it in when the silver gold ratio temporarily goes to 1:1. And instead of cash, I'll be happy to take payment in Au.

POS

Jin-Yin

(02/28/2002; 03:14:34 MDT - Msg ID: 70884)

(No Subject)

nickel62 -- Thanks for your continued hospitality. Was briefly here as the French refer to money and silver.

uponroof -- Thanks for your insight. The cabal most likely have their shells and oxen in the yellow stuff waiting for the rest of us to catch on to the biggest investment opportunity of a lifetime. Without the likes of us, their investment would go nowhere. I truly hope that is not lost on them. All the world's a stage and the next act is about to start in my opinion. Maybe FOA would illuminate a trail marker or two...

coco

(02/28/2002; 03:57:07 MDT - Msg ID: 70885)

Silver Vs Gold

I have a query regarding gold vs silver as an investment. Back in 1981 when gold went to $875 US oz and silver to $48 US oz the Australian dollar equalled the US dollar - today it is half that: so gold at $300 US oz would be sold in Australia at $588 and in Canada $483.
Let's assume gold reaches $1000 US oz and silver $55 US oz, most likely the Aust. dollar and the Canadian dollar would again reach parity. In this case gold in the United States would see a profit margin of somewhere
around 230% whilst in Canada and Australia it would only be 100% and 80% respectively. On the other hand silver at $5.00 US oz would be $8.30 Canadian and $9.80 Australian which in the above scenario would see a profit in the United States of 1000% - Canada 600% and Australia 450%. Why would either Canadians or Australians buy gold.
PLEASE, I don't want all you mathmaticians out there to correct me as it is only an exercise put forward to get your opinions.
I was one of the people who bought physical silver approx. 18 years ago when the Aussie and US dollar was close to parity. I also have some gold. I read an article back then written by Jerome F. Smith which I still have in a newsletter dated 18th. June 1984 about silver set to increase by 800 - 1600%!! Does this sound familiar?
I'm not a regular contributor as I'm a real amateur at this but I would like to thank our hosts and especially Black Blade who has given me faith to hold on until hopefully, in the not too distant future we'll all reap the rewards of patience.
God bless you all.

kludge

(02/28/2002; 04:42:55 MDT - Msg ID: 70886)

(No Subject)

http://www.parousianetwork.com/Biblical_Money_Part_1.htmProbably too late to be of use for Cavan Man's class, but provides the answer to the question "What is Money?".

See also part 2: http://www.parousianetwork.com/Biblical_Money_Part_2.htm

Presented in a Biblical context, yet maybe interesting for the gold vs. silver discussion also.

Includes another characteristic of money not mentioned recently, yet I believe critical if you are planning for "the worst": recognizability. Wouldn't take for granted that people today know the contents of a 1964 silver dollar or a French Angel.

Belgian

(02/28/2002; 04:48:42 MDT - Msg ID: 70887)

Geopolitical Consequences ?

Saudi Arabia (Cheap oil-reserves), sudden public stance (UN) on Israel/Palestine !?
Arab states recognizing the state of Israel in exchange for.....*more* than a viable Palestinian state alone ?

All speculations about the "behinds" of this event are open.
Co-incidently, we have a POO rise of 5% (20$ > 21$).
Next conflicting event is the invasion of Irak ? Do Saudi Arabia + US + Euroland agree on the elimination of Saddam ?
In other words : have the dollar-oil-euro agreed on a temporary armistice ? Despite the Saddam hint of oil for euro !!-?? (Euroland friendly gesture)
Will the US trade deficit grow further while the final unloading of dollar-masses is on halt (political dynamics)?
Is the virtual stable dollar further hedged on LBMA with paper-gold-contracts ? Is Euroland letting the US economy suffer from its own destructive expansion (trade deficit), whilst working on the euro heel digging ?

TG-2001 : >>> I fully well expect Euroland to sell into any dollar gold market spikes so as to hold the level steady,,,,in an effort to inflate paper and discredit our (US) gold market. Eventuallu they (EMU) will move to create a rift between Physical dollar-gold prices and dollar-derivatives prices.

Point : Political will/critical mass and geopolitical circumstances vis a vis the paper-gold-contract market *jeopardy* Timing.
TG :
- Noone is going to excercise their (Gold) "corner" until the dollar based Gold system is changed !
- The central banks will band together to crush any delivery drive !
- Only an Official government change away from supporting their currency with paper pricing will do it (=paper-trading grip on Physical prices) .

In the mean time the 325$ barrier is still seducing POG to come closer and closer. Mine-paper has already discounted this 325$ POG in its valuations. Profits on mine-speculations can be exchanged for the cheaper Physical yellow bird in hand ! Some story for the trade-deficitaire (Rubling) greenback wich
still buys more ultra-cheap but scarce Physical. Don't wait for the huge financial/currency crack up while $ and � block are pulling in as many other political trading blocks as they can.

Christian

(02/28/2002; 05:24:33 MDT - Msg ID: 70888)

@darkhorse

We the Joe Six packs need to form groups to buy gold- lease (sell) among members - just like central banks do for credit creation purposes. The Joe Six packs need to give the middle finger to the bankers and credit card companies. There is no reason gold can not be leased (sold) among a group for needed credit creation. Why should the average Joe Six pack pay on a $100,000 bank loan for a house for 30 years and pay income tax on those earnings to make those payments when it costs the FED only $250.00 to supply that loan. The interest and principal is pure profit and placed in an offshore, off accounting account where no taxes are paid.

Black Blade

(02/28/2002; 05:40:07 MDT - Msg ID: 70889)

Bosnia: Main Muslim party disputes Yugoslav succession gold sale

http://globalarchive.ft.com/globalarchive/article.html?id=020227008016&query=gold

Snippit:

Sarajevo, 27 February: The Party of Democratic Action [SDA- main Muslim party] in Bosnia-Hercegovina believes that the Council of Ministers has shortchanged the Bosnia-Hercegovina citizens for more than 5m convertible marks by selling gold it had received from the division of assets [of former Yugoslavia].

Black Blade: That's nothing, Tony Blair and Eddie George short changed the Brit people to the tune of $500 million. Last BoE sale coming soon.

nickel62

(02/28/2002; 06:27:54 MDT - Msg ID: 70890)

coco actually a very tough question to answer because of your assumption that the Canadian and Austrailian dollar would again return to parity with the US dollar....

I don't think that would necessarily occur. I guess the reason you are forcasting that is that the economies of Austrailia and Canada are very much aligned with the production of natural resources and that in a period of rapidly rising gold and silver prices one would expect a concommittent increase in the prices of other natural resources as well. That might well be the case but I am not sure I would expect the Canadian looney or the Austrailian dollar to do much more then slightly strengthen versus a declining dollar. (A declining US dollar is the same as saying that the US dollar price of gold would go to $1000/ounce of course) I would guess that the parity of the three fiat currencies would stay roughly equal in the event of a rapid rise in gold and silver and therefore the returns to Canadian and Austrailian investors would be somewhat similar to those of American based investors. I hope this helped.

RobotGuy

(02/28/2002; 06:32:06 MDT - Msg ID: 70891)

"End to recession"

The most bizarre thing about that statement, is that people have been saying that for over a year now. I remember hearing that last year in January. If the end of this so called recession has been so close, then why do we have to say it's near for over a year? What does near mean? 2005 near? You can read between the lines with Greenspan. Did you ever hear him say definitely? No, of course not, but you did hear him say "could falter". Honestly, with the way we boomed in the late nineties, it's going to take a lot of time, or a lot of losses, or both before the global community can experience another boom like that.

Don't forget however, I'm just a RobotGuy.

Black Blade

(02/28/2002; 06:33:02 MDT - Msg ID: 70892)

Short Changing Tokyo's Markets

http://www.iht.com/articles/49602.htm
Snippit:

Major foreign investors have serious gripes with the Japanese government's effort to limit short-selling as part of its latest plan to prop up the country's tottering financial system. In its package of deflation-fighting measures, Tokyo announced that it would tighten rules on short-selling - the market-depressing act of selling shares you don't own in hopes of buying them back later at a lower price.

Behind the crackdown on foreign brokerages' short selling lies a desperate attempt by the Japanese government to reverse the prolonged slump in Tokyo stock prices. The Nikkei stock average has tumbled about 20 percent in the past year in tandem with the Japanese economy.

Black Blade: Let's see - ban short selling and have the government use public funds to buy stock futures and selected shares to prop up the market. Wonder what happens when they run short of cash. Setting up for a fall. Hmmm...

Black Blade

(02/28/2002; 06:43:50 MDT - Msg ID: 70893)

Grim Data

I expect that the Wall Street pimps will spin this data to sound positive. However, unlike a lazy Wall Street analyst, all one has to do is actually look behind the numbers. Jobless claims rise 17,000 to 378,000 in spite of the BLS efforts to disguise the data with seasonal adjustment. The fact that they couldn't hide a rising rate of unemployment says volumes. The "Bone Pile" continues to grow ever higher.

Also the GDP for the 4th quarter was revised upward from an estimate of 0.2% to 1.4%. However, that is mostly due to zero percent financing in the auto sector. So the US economy still looks to be in trouble. There is absolutely no positive news to justify a grossly over valued market. In a word - "GRIM"

- Black Blade

Black Blade

(02/28/2002; 06:52:14 MDT - Msg ID: 70894)

Yen Recovery Fades as Japan's Woes Linger

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020228/business_markets_forex_dc_4.html
Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - A brief recovery in the yen ran out of steam in European trade on Thursday, with the Japanese unit handing back gains against the dollar on persistent fears about the state of the domestic economy. Japanese January industrial output data on Thursday illustrated the country's economic woes, posting a 1.0 percent drop when analysts had looked for a rise of 0.6 percent or more.

Black Blade: Looks ugly. The Nikkei had a paltry 14.74 point gain last night. The Japanese PPT must be like the Little Dutch Boy putting his fingers in the dike to prevent total collapse. Only this Little Dutch Boy is running out of fingers and toes in a hurry.

nickel62

(02/28/2002; 07:07:21 MDT - Msg ID: 70895)

With apologeies to Waverider, I thought the article from the Financial Times that he posted was so significant that it should be posted in full...

Plunge Protection may Plunge the Economy into the loo
By Brady Willett

A curiously understated article was released last week from the Financial Times:

Feb 21 -- Japan suspected of stock market intervention

When considering that earlier in February Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokaw confirmed Japan's newly formed 'stock buying body' would intervene (buy stocks) when needed, 'suspicion' hardly seems like the most appropriate word. Moreover, when considering that the Japanese 'SBB' officially started operations on Friday February 22 with 4 Trillion Yen at their disposal ($15.15 billion in 02, and 03) it would appear that further mention of 'suspect' trades will no longer be the course de jour. Rather, the fact is that Japanese officials are aiming to legitimize their newly formed organization of plunge protectors.

The SBB arrives at a time when Japanese banks are more likely than not preparing to sell their stock holdings. At the end of March (fiscal year end) banks will be required to book their equity holdings at market value -- not an encouraging development for bank balance sheets when considering that the Nikkei has been on a multi-year slump. Furthermore, beginning in April 'the process will begin to scrap guarantees on bank deposits' (Reuters). Clearly, as the government attempts to rid banks of bad debts there is the danger of triggering a stock market collapse. It is this expected weakness in share prices during the upcoming March/April period that provided the incentive for the formation of the SBB.

The PPT and the SBB
Unlike the America plunge protection team, which tends to undertake market manipulations incognito, the Japanese stock buying body's sole purpose is to openly support the financial markets. Furthermore, there is considerable doubt as to whether or not the body's mandate is to simply cushion the blow as banks continue to sell-off their enormous holdings (the original concept for its formation), or if it is attempting to underpin a stock market that would otherwise deservedly fall regardless of such bank sales. To be sure, the rhetoric from the body's creators has been that the markets must stop falling:

"We must halt this fall in shares. It's like diarrhea, we must stop it. The stock-buying body was set up precisely to absorb such selling (offloading of cross-shareholdings by banks). If February is such a month, there is no excuse for not functioning at that crucial time." Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokaw -- Feb 7

"We agreed that the market's current level is clearly undervalued and needs to be corrected" Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's economic adviser Heizo Takenaka -- Feb 15

The phrases 'we must halt this fall in shares', and 'the market's current level is clearly undervalued' do not appear to be 'defensive only' mantras. Rather, the new body is being portrayed, at least by those who believe the very purpose of the SBB is 'suspect', as an active agent against any further stock market declines. The question is, is the SSB trying to save a market that is falling for the wrong reasons, or is it only glossing over the deep-rooted structural inefficiencies which have caused the markets to decline in the first place? The SBB, and to a lesser extent the PPT, would certainly like use to think it is the former rather than the latter.

Timing The Plunge
As is becoming increasingly evident within the America equity markets, if shares rise for reasons other than corporate earnings (or related strict fundamentals) the fallout can be that much more severe. Moreover, the fallout can be that much more unpredictable: one day the money in the markets does not care about earnings only manipulated revenue gains, and the next any company without earnings, regardless of revenues, sees its share price get decimated.

With this in mind, consider the Nikkei: the languishing leading index of corporate Japan is back above 10,000 after hitting an intraday low of 9420.85 on February 7. Drawing upon Mr. Shiokaw's previous statements, which not surprisingly came at the same time the Nikkei 'bottomed', the recent rally in the Nikkei may be confirmatory of an array of events, including: 1) the banks continue to sell as expected 2) the government is buying as prefigured 3) no one with any intelligence is shorting, and 4) speculators are hoping. That 'no one with any intelligence is shorting' is a deceptive statement. For certain, shorting specific Japanese stocks may be fundamentally sound, but how can someone short when the government is saying the market is cheap and they will now for the first time ever be buying shares directly? As for 'speculators are hoping': clearly Mr. Shoikaw's comments played a role, however small, in stopping the Nikkei's slide rather than any strict 'value' developments in the marketplace.

With these 'timing' thoughts in place, a much larger question comes into focus: should secret government backed groups be propping up the markets?

Take first the argument that the markets should not be allowed to fall, or at minimum 'rapidly fall'. To illuminate how this could be dangerous occurrence imagine Greenspan and company saying they will not let the Nasdaq fall below 5,000 back in March 2000 (granted this an extreme example that borderlines on the absurd. Perhaps 4,000, 3,000, 2,000, or 1,000 would be more applicable?) Nevertheless, if Greenspan helped form an American version of the Japanese SBB back in March 2000 would the Nasdaq still be at +5,000 today? If so, what would the average P/E on the Nasdaq be -- 1500? Further, would now defunct dot coms have continued to recklessly spend because of the ready availability of capital through share offerings? Would overall telecom debt still be enlarging, risking the very sustainability of the US financial structure? Perhaps, if Greenspan played his cards right, Henry Blodget would still be employed, Cramer would still be acting like a complete psychopath on CNBC, and the FASB would still be influenced solely by corporate America? Questions, questions...

The point to be taken from the above hypothetical is that improper use of plunge protection can serve as an exacerbating agent when any downturn does arrive. If the Nasdaq were held beyond 5,000, more debts would have been granted to nonprofitable entities, more shares would have been issued, more lies would have been told. Ultimately, more damage would have been done.

To Plunge or Not To Plunge?
The case against market manipulations can pose equally interesting scenarios. Consider September 17, 2001 -- the first day of trading in New York following September 11. What if Greenspan and company did nothing? What if the SEC did not rig the game so that corporations, and underfunded mutual funds could buy, buy, buy? In sum, what if the initial sell off was not supported, pessimism was allowed to grow, and prices continued to plunge?

These 'what ifs' are exactly what the plunge protection teams are supposedly trying to avoid. Arguable the PPT's motions helped quell the tides in September.

Clearly there is a gray area when it comes to the topic of plunge protection: during certain instances stopping a precipitous slide in stock prices can help the markets avoid crisis. At other times stopping a slide only serves to swell a much larger slide later on. However, the real question to be asked is by what methodology, if any, the PPT and SBB should operate. To be sure, the Fed released transcripts last week that showed that Greenspan and Lindsey both expressed worries about stock prices back in 1996. If the plunge protection team has been using this measure to establish intervention guidelines, then they would not have acted at all since that point. Put simply, by any strict valuation calculation the markets as a whole have not been cheaper since 1996 so there has been no cause for intervention.

However, as September 2001 demonstrates, recent history does show market manipulation on the part of the PPT. Thus it would appear that the plunge protection team acts in a contradictory manner to its own rhetoric and observations: they act on the basis of political considerations to ensure that prices do not fall at 'key' moments in time, rather than on the basis of economic fundamentals. In the current case, the question to be asked is when do falling prices during a 'bubble' indicate that we are not in a bubble any more? Ironically, this is a question the PPT avoids by not disclosing what they do. By contrast, in the coming months and years the SBB may not be so lucky.

SBB A Necessary Evil?
The SBB has attempted to legitimize government ownership of stocks because it has no other alternatives. Put simply, if Japanese banks are to adhere to new guidelines mapped out by the government they will have to sell an enormous amount of stock to do so. Nevertheless, it should be remembered that the major hang up when it comes to the Japanese economy is that the government does not take action in absolving 'bad debts'. With this in mind, one has to wonder whether buying shares from Japanese banks is just another form of bailing these banks out? To help you ponder this thought a question will suffice: is the SBB buying an opportunistic stake in viable, thriving corporations, or are they holding the value of corporate shares up hoping for the best? A bailout, is a bailout, is a bailout...

To date no one has even begun to debate when, if ever, the SBB intends to sell share back into the marketplace.

Hard Line The Only Line?
Generally speaking government backed equity markets, as China has recently become aware, do not work. Such markets function differently than regular markets where investors purchase a stake in a company by paying premiums that correlate to expected business developments. They function differently because they are regulated by political rather than economic considerations: a marketplace that may deserve by any and all measures to drop, is held up nevertheless.

In the case of Japan, plunge protection has not been reactionary. Rather, a methodical drop in share prices with the fear of further sharp drops is the reason for the formation of the SBB. With this in mind, the danger occurs when, and if, the SBB becomes unsuccessful in achieving their stated goals. If the Nikkei drops below 9,000 in the coming years the SBB would have wasted public funds, and potentially created a situation where ungrounded optimism transforms into ungrounded pessimism. What this means is that short sellers, and speculators (numbers 3, and 4) would likely pose a threat to Japanese stocks if the SBB does not continue to protect them.

The Honesty of a Plunge
The Nikkei is rising rapidly and many of those that feared a blow-up on February 7 still fear a blow-up. Nothing has changed following the SBB's formation except perception of stock prices -- not perceptions of Japanese macro fundamentals. The verdict is still out on whether or not perception is that the SBB is a good or bad thing for the markets long term.

Just as the 1990s investor was directed away from all that is 'value', and all that is 'fundamental' when investing in stock prices, so too can plunge protection bodies serve as agents of misdirection, purveyors of prosperity when the fundamentals do not support the markets. It is worth remembering that there is a double standard constantly being formed: that being that falling prices should be supported while rising prices should be allowed to escalate. As such, perhaps the only way to calm fears that plunge teams are not fouling up the markets is to form another team of 'mania monitors': at least this way the next plunge in global stock prices will be an honest plunge -- one that is as walled in as the next rally, or by the set of 'cheap' and 'overvalued' rationales bankers around the world deem fit.

Plunge protecting the world's stock markets may be a hazardous pursuit. That said, it is worth remembering that the Nikkei, thanks in part to anticipation of the new 'stock buying body', is up nearly 10% since February 7, 2002. As such, the potential dangers of governments amassing equity ownership are easily dismissed -- prices are rising!

However, to play on Mr. Shiokaw's words, the fear is that perceptions surrounding plunge protection might change to: 'It's like diarrhea, we must stop it." While you can temporarily stop stock prices from sliding down the toilet by using public funds to buy shares, eventually new capital and a stronger set of fundamentals are needed to avoid a more powerful flush.

Brady Willett
BWillett@fallstreet.com
www.wallstreetwishlist.com

March 1, 2002

R Powell

(02/28/2002; 07:13:50 MDT - Msg ID: 70896)

The House of Morgan

http://www.bluecollarfund.com/page659052.htm Thanks to bullion, next door, for the link.

Siochain

(02/28/2002; 07:21:51 MDT - Msg ID: 70897)

Wall Street Journal view of gold

http://online.wsj.com/article_email/0,,SB1014765130814110240,00.htmlThey don't think too much of goldbugs...or LT futureof PMs that paper is here to stay...but suggest if you are going to buy..consider Newmont...or ...get this...Barricks...then they say in effect/implication...goldbugs don't do the DD!!!

Waverider

(02/28/2002; 08:16:02 MDT - Msg ID: 70898)

Mining Cellphones, Japan Finds El Dorado

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/02/28/technology/circuits/28CYCL.html?ex=1015563600&en=4626925881cfbaa2&ei=5040∂ner=MOREOVERSnippit:
"SABURO MASAOKA speaks with the enthusiasm of a Klondike prospector. In rapid-fire sentences that roll figures and the fanciful into one, he talks about panning for gold, silver, platinum and palladium. But Mr. Masaoka is no ordinary 49er. He is a salesman at Yokohama Metals, a scrap metal recycler whose mother lode is found on the dark side of the wireless revolution: the millions of cellular phones thrown in the trash heap each year.

Cellphone recycling is in essence a numbers game, and the numbers are sufficient to make it viable while, as yet, voluntary. Last year Yokohama Metals hauled in 1.7 million used handsets, about 10 percent of Japan's recycled phone market. The company pays 10 yen (7 cents) for each handset it buys; the gold and other metal in each phone is worth about 30 yen. In all, 120,000 phones are needed to produce a one-kilogram bar of pure (99.99 percent) gold, which sells for just under $10,000."

Waverider: Interesting article - I had no idea cellphones contained so much Gold. BTW, Nickel62 - thanks - great to see the whole article posted. Cheers!

David Linkley

(02/28/2002; 08:38:31 MDT - Msg ID: 70899)

Wall Street Journal article

I ran into the article WSJ article referenced in two places this morning.

At the link provided, the headline reads ------------

"Gold Is Beginning to Sparkle Again As Investors Seek Safe Havens"

At Dow Jones On-Line, the headline reads -----------

"Gold Has New Luster for Investors"

Did I miss something here? I see this as positive for gold and gold bugs.

Quoting the article by Aaron Elstein,

"Abandoned for years by all but a loyal group of investment curmudgeons, Wall Street has got gold fingers again. The precious metal recently rose above $300 an ounce, its highest level in nearly two years, and mutual funds that invest in gold mining companies have been star performers against a backdrop of dismal performance in other areas of the stock market.

The rise stems largely from increased demand in the U.S., where low interest rates have made bond and money-market yields unattractive, while fears of war in the Middle East have people looking for safer investments. Also giving the price a boost is renewed interest by Japanese investors who are looking to guard against the falling value of the yen. Many Japanese, worried about the health of commercial banks amid a prolonged economic crisis, also have been shifting money out of savings accounts into gold as their government prepares to end blanket deposit-insurance.

To some, the minigolden age has been a long time coming. Indeed, to a group of hardy investors known as "gold bugs," the rise in gold price isn't so much a profit-opportunity as vindication.

"Gold has been a currency for 3000 years and it's only in the past 20 that people have forgotten about its importance," says Henry Bingham, a strategist at Van Eck Global, a New York investment firm that specializes in natural-resources stocks and commodities. Bingham says he has invested in gold since 1967. "What we are seeing now is a secular revaluation of gold, back to somewhere close to where it belongs," he says.
- - - - - - -

Linkley Comment: Though the article does cite some negatives (particularly when it comes to stocks at high price earnings ratios), overall it presents a very refreshing break from the negative scenario on gold usually associated with mainstream press.

RobotGuy

(02/28/2002; 08:51:59 MDT - Msg ID: 70900)

DJIA

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=djia&sid=1643&o_symb=djia&freq=2&time=13Can you guess which direction we're headed?

Old Yeller

(02/28/2002; 09:57:45 MDT - Msg ID: 70901)

US current account deficit

http://globalarchive.ft.com/globalarchive/article.html?id=020227001353&query=US+current+account+deficit
"An unsustainable black hole."

Nothing too new here,just the usual assortment of frightening numbers that are given scant notice,as the financial talking heads bet on the recovery date.

Running fast from reality has worked well so far,but every day the monster grows larger.

Where else are you going to put your savings?

balzac

(02/28/2002; 10:07:04 MDT - Msg ID: 70902)

IN PRAISE OF BLACK BLADE

I very much appreciate your diligent research and prolific posting over the years. In my opinion, you are definately
the most steadfast and resolute goldbug of all.
Thanks, Balzac.

Gimme Shelter

(02/28/2002; 12:27:28 MDT - Msg ID: 70903)

Metals as Money and other Ideals, with a Challenge.

I find several items of these discussions profound.

I asked why were the 90's so good. Even though I understand the fiat system and our national debt. My conclusion, be it good or bad was Bill Gates or more importantly, computers with operating software the masses could utilize. This spawned economic positives everywhere and saved the USD. (My take Robot Guy)

This has also allowed us the ability to, for the first time in mans history, to follow what our so called leaders are doing instantly. Most importantly the computer and internet allows us to plan ahead.
This planning has also lead us to this wonderful discussion forum that we can be educated to help ourselves, THANK YOU CENTENNIAL.

Which leads me to my next discovery. I have found most sit and watch but never do anything to prepare.

How do we get out from the bursting bubble collectively without damage?

I agree with Solomon Weaver, Christian, Darkhorse. How do you begin your own monetary system? This was my question several years ago. Do you let the government roll back through with another system designed for them? (See Black Blades idea on this a week or so ago.) I think not. There needs to be value.

Somewhere in between a monetary policy and barter lies another creation, digital gold.

I would like to challenge you all again. If you had the opportunity to help change the fiscal world we live in positively, with one large obstacle, the worlds monetary enslavers, how would you do it?

"... it does not require a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen to set brush fires in people's minds..." -- Samuel Adams, "Father of the American Revolution"

GIMME SHELTER

This article or message is not intended to coerce or influence anyone inside of or outside of any government.

escapethematrix

(02/28/2002; 12:32:45 MDT - Msg ID: 70905)

JPM link from MSG# 70896

Thanks, RichA very interesting and eye-opening read. Some select snippets:

The Federal reserve requires bank holding companies with over $150 million in assets to file the Consolidated Financial Statements for Bank Holding Companies, known as form FR Y-9C. I thought readers would be interested in knowing what was filed in JP Morgan's report, dated December 31, 2001.

Today, Morgan's judgement compass may be broken, but their bank definitely isn't, and it looks like Morgan is attempting to influence the price of gold again. But this time they are doing it in the shadowy world of derivatives. So they've used the bank to facilitate producer and central banks short sales in gold with notional levels listed on year-end FR Y 9-C report exceeding $41 billion dollars! So they question remains-Why does JP Morgan take on such exposure, and why do so many companies do their gold "trading" with Morgan? I would answer that question with another.

As Enron manipulated power contracts at exorbitant prices, and oil soared, gold never moved. After 9/11 gold spiked and then fell back; crude gapped up five dollars and then got crushed. There was only selling in the energy market. Was it because of the marginal decrease in oil consumption due to the decrease in airplanes flying, or was it the frantic selling by the market prop that needed to get out, before the company imploded on itself?

. Now we have that evidence. JP Morgan's notional principal amounts of gold contracts due within 12 months are $17.044 billion; those due over one year through five years are $18.843 billion, and those over five years are $5.363 billion. That's $41 billion dollars, or 150 million ounces of gold. $17 billion of gold due within twelve months, at an average price of $274 is 62 million ounces of gold. What part of this is hedged? JP Morgan says that information is proprietary. How is it hedged? JP Morgan won't say. Where can they get the 62 million ounces for delivery? Today the NYMEX has 1,285,701 million ounces of gold in warehouse stocks, of which 87,534 ounces are eligible

Hmmmm....Spring, and perhaps something else?? Is in the air.

A Canadian

(02/28/2002; 13:01:26 MDT - Msg ID: 70906)

TAKE COVER !!!

Am sweating bullets at realization of just how fast window of cheap accumulation is closing. (today purchased more physical and traded my S.A dreamhole for a Canadian one; unhedged and debt free.)
The way I see things there will be a HUGE stock market correction which will make 87 look like a kneescrape. Things just weren't as inflated back then (and the chain of finance not as treacherous).
Like a high performance engine that wins all the races the greedy OWNERS of our economy refuse to put it in the shop for critical maintenance. They just want to keep winning. The oil is blacker than molasses, fuel filter's clogged,rad's leaking. ( YA BUT THAT BABY SURE CAN FLY! )I don't want to be anywhere near that track when she blows!
Play with paper save with gold.

Jin-Yin

(02/28/2002; 13:16:56 MDT - Msg ID: 70907)

Wall Street Journal article

Excerpt:

"Abandoned for years by all but a loyal group of investment curmudgeons, Wall Street has got gold fingers again."
__________

Curmudgeons - vulgar or rude persons, boor, lout, oaf, jerk, clod, churl, cad, etc.

I don't find labeling people as rude jerks refreshing. Aaron's four viewpoints for being fully invested in gold are real possibilities if one can think for himself and can project future possibilities.

Excerpt:

1) You think stocks are overvalued.
2) You believe corporations are going to default more often on bonds and other debt-obligations.
3) Deflationary pressures, or a weak economic recovery, will erode corporate earnings.
4) The U.S. dollar will fall and banks will be weakened by their lending and derivatives exposure to parties like Enron.

"Because many gold bugs take some or all of these views, they stand apart from Wall Street's bulls. Indeed, rather than pore through balance sheets or examine corporate trends, as many portfolio managers do, gold bugs tend to be well-versed in such things as the history of central banks' monetary policies."
__________

I get the impression the author implies physical gold investors cannot decipher balance sheets or corporate trends like the professional fund managers, his expert witness. If gold investors don't understand these basic investment tools, they must be idiots or rather better yet, curmudgeons. Does or can anyone understand balance sheets today because what you find on them is fraudulent off balance poppycock. He didn't mention the recent errant ways or our corporate raiders and what damaging effect in confidence this will have on our economy far worse than what nineteen barbarians flying planes into buildings could do.

Are portfolio managers held in higher esteem for some reason? I don't think so because if they were, they would be making their clients money, which they aren't if these are fund managers he speaks of. Most are down for the past two years, which he fails to mention. Look over balance sheets all they want to, it hasn't seemed to help the fund industry's performance as they fail to beat the S&P 500 index year after year since inception. That's right. If you managed a fund with the 500 companies in the S&P, you would beat 85% or so fund returns historically. You have heard the saying, "Beating the S&P?" Well that's it, not many accomplish it.

Excerpt:

"And Barrick, he says, is the lowest-cost producer in the business and also is less vulnerable to market fluctuations because it sells gold in advance at set prices, which protects shareholders if the price of gold falls."
__________

That's what you call 'hedging' forward production. He doesn't use the word 'hedge' as it carries a bad connotation today unlike boor, jerk or clod. Investors are at least understanding the difference between hedged and un-hedged miners because Barrick has probably under performed its un-hedged peers. He forgot to mention that Barrick is trying to unwind its hedge book as it sees the price of gold increasing in the future.

Who ever benefited and made lots of money by getting the inside scoop from the press? No one! They are always a day late and a dollar short. Simply amazing but reassuring too. Thank you WSJ for the heads up dis-information and counter advice. When the press resorts to this style of reporting for the smart money insiders, which historically happens at the bottom of markets, one knows the time is fast approaching. The trick here, in tricky times, is in trying to figure out which market is bottoming. Hmmmm.

goldenpeace

(02/28/2002; 13:34:36 MDT - Msg ID: 70908)

Fannie Mae Hedge position

Today's WSJ editorial says 99% of FNM's year end 2000 hedge position, which was immense, was held by only 5 counterparties. FNM's balance sheet grew another 20%+ in 2001. The counterparties must be bulging with even more derivatives now.....want to bet wether J.P.Morgan was one of them?
Bowing

Interstate

(02/28/2002; 13:36:33 MDT - Msg ID: 70909)

Christian msg. #70888

I LIKE your idea. I can see so many possiilities in forming our own gold conglomerate. Are legal ramifications involved in getting one started? You are so right about us Joe Six Packs. It brings to mind a movie "Pink Cadillac" from many years ago, when the common shareholders of a corporation banded together and voting together (no proxies) and were able to take the corp over. The aim (for me) would be not to gain wealth, but to survive on what I earn without the gov't/banksters taking such much in interests and capital gains. Any more thoughts/plans?
Later, Interstate.

Gimme Shelter

(02/28/2002; 14:11:17 MDT - Msg ID: 70910)

Regarding those who need a new payment system

Interstate, you and the others are dead nuts on needing something for us Joe beer drinkers.

See my message 70795 (Feb 26) and the others from today regarding this type of payment system for us.

There are currently no laws regarding the exchange of gold as a commodity. This seems to be the only commodity the feds and others have not regulated. (Probably because the BB's dont want to pay the regulatory fees other bizs have too.

So if you and I turn gold into digits with the physical being stored and audited (oz per byte) then we can transact digitally or physically anonymously, outside of the current fiat systems.

Our largest obstacle is gold is expensive to purchase as I have found. By the time one buys and delivers with all of the fees attached your are about US$45.00 over spot. This of course includes insurance and warehousing. Then the payment system provider needs to add fees to pay for the audits internal and external, the software for useage, the banking license fee to remain under the radar, storage and insurance, sales, customer service, etc...

It is easy to see that the feds left the silver behind for monetary reasons.

One item that is of the utmost importance, we do not have to let the feds create all of the money, we can too, but value backed!

There are only four companies out there doing this. The other three I am not associated with are very good. I just believe a physical delivery 1 oz GID 999.9 fine of gold and the ability to digitally transact face to face will segregate us from the pack.

It is nice to see this forum take on a what can we do approach. Until now it seems, (and I am a fairly new lurker of about a year) each has only shed the gloom of the economic system. I believe we all know this, especially now.

Now is the time for the aware to prepare.

I would welcome some input from this very educated group of minds to help evolve a payment system for the masses.

Gimme Shelter

This article or message is not intended to coerce or influence anyone inside of or outside of any government.

Black Blade

(02/28/2002; 16:39:49 MDT - Msg ID: 70912)

Recovery? What Recovery?

From the mouths of the nations' CEO's:

This morning I noticed that the CEO of Electronic Data Systems (EDS) siad the exact same thing every other CEO at their convention in Boca Raton, FL said. Without any capital spending how can there be any recovery? He went on to say that to a man all the CEO's that he had talked to said the same thing. There is no increase in capital spending and that translates into lost jobs and declining revenues.

The only ones forecasting an economic recovery are propandists on Wall Street economists and the financial media pundits. From the people on the front lines and the generals in the corporate offices the situation is rather "GRIM".

Get prepared for any contigency. Gret out of debt, get enough cash on hand for several months expenses, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, get a nonperishable food and basic goods storage program started. And I might add - begin sleeping well at night.

- Black Blade

slingshot

(02/28/2002; 16:43:21 MDT - Msg ID: 70913)

Solomon Weaver Msg# 70884

The way you do business.As with many posts at this forum the best is saved for last.
Your last sentence,"and instead of cash,I will be happy to take payment in Au. My thoughts exactly!
Now I ask you Solomon Weaver, if you say, "I will trade you in Au", would there be any reporting to the I.R.S at any amount since there is no cash exchange and the value is equal with no additional income involved. I am thinking that this transaction could be treated like a rollover.

Slingshot

Gimme Shelter

(02/28/2002; 17:04:31 MDT - Msg ID: 70914)

MSGS# 70911,70913

Black Blade, what do you feel the world will do after this two or three month chaotic mayhem following the economic fall?
How will we revolve?
Do you believe all of the education the talking heads are throwing out about nuclear problems, is because "they" may need another distraction for all of the sheeple to deal with while "they" figure out how to keep control of "us"?

Gimme Shelter

(02/28/2002; 17:09:41 MDT - Msg ID: 70915)

signing out for a few hours

Have to go for now.

slingshot

(02/28/2002; 17:18:40 MDT - Msg ID: 70916)

Gimme Shelter Msg#70914

Thank you for the link. Checked it out and I would prefer to keep it close to home. ;)
slingshot

Black Blade

(02/28/2002; 19:01:23 MDT - Msg ID: 70917)

RE: Gimme Shelter

I really am not sure what the response will be should the US economy collapse. I suspect that we would see many more "New Deal" proposals and perhaps an overhaul of the US system of government and government control of the economy similar to what occured in the 1930's. The US system of government could change as it is "different this time" and is a "national security issue". Tight government control of "big bad evil business" could be taken to placate the masses. This could even lead to a form of national socialism I suspect. Then again, we might just get "very lucky" and like the Phoenix rising from the ashes, get a return to a free market society. I reallydon't know what would happen as this is sheer speculation. As you can see, I have no confidence in the government or in man for that matter. That's why I say always look out for "number one" as when "push comes to shove" no one else will. Cheers!

- Black Blade

sector

(02/28/2002; 19:16:59 MDT - Msg ID: 70918)

Enron's "other shoe"...hovering

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3QZ8919YC&live=true&tagid=IXLI0L9Z1BC
CSFB team played key role in Enron partnerships
By Joshua Chaffin and Stephen Fidler in New York
Published: February 28 2002 20:44 | Last Updated: March 1 2002 01:24

A group of bankers at Credit Suisse First Boston played a central role in creating controversial partnerships that Enron used to hold billions of dollars of poorly performing assets and that eventually contributed to its bankruptcy.

CSFB has handed over to Congressional investigators materials related to its dealings with Enron, including the partnerships, as the focus of lawmakers' attention shifts from the accountants that checked Enron's books to Wall Street.
+++++++++++++++++++++++
The "other" shoe is of course gold and silver trading since Enron paid $450,000 for an LBMA member seat. There are folks who believe that doesn't prove they traded gold. The best policy in an investigation is to follow the money and $450,000 is money that wasn't spent for window dressing.

Now, when Anderson's Duncan [Mr. Shredder Man] and his immunity blessed, tweety bird friends finish singing we will have the crux of a really big gold carry trade intertwined with Ngas and all served up in tidy little derivative packages by JPMorgan...a Federal Reserve Bank.

Then we can all marvel at how such a thing could have possibly escaped the ever watchfull eye of the MoTU himself.

Canuck

(02/28/2002; 20:24:29 MDT - Msg ID: 70919)

@ sector

Good find. Sorry, what is 'MoTU'?

One thing I'm getting out of watching the news articles (re: Enron) is the 'passing of the buck' from one entity to the next. Initially the hearings focused at Enron, then to the accountants, over to the investment banks, mix in the rating agencies, the regulators and presumably back to Enron and who knows where from there.

It's the 4th quarter, 55 seconds on the clock, the receiving team is down by 21 points and are set to get the kick-off. How many laterals and 'in the back' blocks will we see on this play? The outcome of the game is crystal clear yet we must play out the clock.

I wonder if the coach, fired after the game has the initials JPM? (smile)

slingshot

(02/28/2002; 20:44:03 MDT - Msg ID: 70920)

Canuck

MoTUMan of The Universe.

Max Rabbitz

(02/28/2002; 20:50:00 MDT - Msg ID: 70921)

Getting ready for the next auction

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020228/n28543733_1.html"The floor continued to buzz about options interest and the purchase of $295 and $325 calls on Wednesday, after a chunky
bullish call option transaction went through late last week.

Some were puzzled by the timing of such a transaction so close to a Bank of England auction, which in most previous instances the market approached from the short side.

``The market is aware that central bank sales are a threat to the market and yet we see continued buying,'' said Ian MacDonald, head of bullion dealing at Commerzbank. ``I would say it will probably be a constraint next Tuesday. I would expect the market to dip in front of the auction, so everyone can buy it in nice and cheap, as in the last couple of times.''

Max: Thanks Eddie George, I do appreciate it.

Rx Gold

(02/28/2002; 21:13:00 MDT - Msg ID: 70922)

@Black Blade 'Recovery ' Canadian $$$

I have been having a discussion with a Canadian friend about gold / silver and the storage of wealth etc. I happened to make a comment about the Canadian dollar. Here is his reply...

so, every time the federal goverment pays off a billion of debt, the lender who gets the money, or most of them, sells canadian dollars to buy some other currency to take home.
u .s companies have been buying up canadian oil and gas businesses, and they had to buy canadian dollars to do that, which helped support the dollar some. without that, the dollar likely would be a penny lower.
plus, and i saw it today, remember that greenspan and the feds forced this slowdown to force business to get more efficient. so many of those laid off will not be recalled, because business finds a way of doing with less. tools, systems, no choice, whatever.
in our country, no such thing has happened. well, it has, but not to the same extent. and our production costs are higher. so i believe the countries of the world said to each other, a low dollar will help canada export stuff to us, especially the u s. it's either that or welfare.
canada used to print money to pay the bills. since about 1991, that has stopped. notice argentina is printing money to pay its bills. people there stopped paying all forms of taxes, so the govenment has no money. so it prints it to pay its bills. that effectivley increases money supply with no payback, no increase in productivity... and that leads to inflation.
in the u s , the govenment is increasing money supply, but enron ate up maybe 90 days worth, and then the banks aren't lending, so the money doesn't move out very quickly.
the other thing about a cheap dollar, is it forces all those civil servants, teachers, etc, who take tax dollars home as wages, to stay home and spend our former tax dollars, ( now their wages) here. that's good. it also encourages a lot of u s tourists, and that's happening, especially since flying is perceived to by dangerous.
so the cheap currency is part of a long term plan to bring our country back to affordable finances. the trudeau government came into power in 1968 with no debt, and stuck the country in deep. now it costs.
yes, it must be tough selling into canada.
now that the peso is devalued in argentina, ( don't cry for me argentina), we will see their beef in our stores, and that will cap our prices to some extent. the yen is being devalued in japan as you know, and that will hit the car companies. but the u s government sanctions these sort of things, because it does force american companies to cut costs, which they do, or they go out of business. i guess that's capitalism, but in the meantime, it's either a cheap yen, or welfare for japan. does that sound familiar???>

He is a buisness man and keeps up on the stock market and writes about it. He knows about gold / silver but would rather deal with the stock mkt. He receintly started looking at gold stocks. I have more faith in the hard stuff.

Black Blade

(02/28/2002; 21:43:15 MDT - Msg ID: 70923)

National Poll Shows Broad Support for ANWR Exploration

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/020228/dcth056_1.html
Likely Voters Support Opening ANWR by 2-1 Margin

WASHINGTON, Feb. 28 /PRNewswire/ -- The International Brotherhood of Teamsters today released the results of a poll question on energy exploration in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). By a 2 to 1 margin, 62 percent to 31 percent, likely voters support exploring the ANWR for petroleum.

``This poll shows that the American public supports a common sense energy policy,'' said Jerry Hood, Special Assistant for Energy Policy to General President James P. Hoffa. ``When all the rhetoric clears, the facts remain -- we can become less reliant on foreign oil and create jobs while exploring the ANWR cleanly and safely.''

The poll was sponsored by Job Power, a coalition of labor and business groups who support a comprehensive energy policy. The national survey of 800 likely voters was taken February 11-13, 2002. The poll question on ANWR read as follows:

Some people say we are too dependent on foreign oil and that we should drill for our own oil in Alaska. Other people say that oil exploration will damage the wildlife in Alaska and should not be allowed. Which one is closer to your opinion?

62 percent agreed with the former statement and 31 percent agreed with the latter statement. The remaining percentages didn't know or refused to consider the question. Public Opinion Strategies, a Washington, D.C. based polling firm conducted the survey.

Previous surveys from groups opposing ANWR have wrongly offered a false choice to participants. Those surveys ask questions that make the participant choose between developing new sources of energy and exploring the ANWR. The Teamsters and other coalition partners have always said that the United States should take both actions. Further, the Job Power survey is strengthened by its focus on likely voters instead of only registered voters.

``Now is the time for the Senate to act,'' Hood added. ``The American people are self-reliant and they deserve an energy policy that reflects that virtue. The Teamsters urge the Senate to bring President Bush's energy bill to the floor for a straight up or down vote.''

Black Blade: People are fringe environmentalists until until it affects their wallets. Then they are more reasonable when the issue hits home. Sierra Club and Earth First have lost their grip with mainsteam America. In fact Sen. Tom Daschle (D-SD) now supports building a new NG pipeline in Alaska. It is too difficult to ignore that without abundant "Cheap Energy" the US economy dies. Simple as that. Energy is the blood that gives life to the US economy.

(02/28/2002; 21:53:16 MDT - Msg ID: 70924)

A Canadian post # 70906

Love your analogy of the racing engine. I am a racer myself and it is a fact that engines often perform their best and brightest just before they completley let go in spectacular fashion!!!!! We'll see

G$

Waverider

(02/28/2002; 22:41:18 MDT - Msg ID: 70925)

Capital spending expected to drop this year

http://www.globeandmail.ca/servlet/GIS.Servlets.HTMLTemplate?tf=tgam/common/FullStory.html&cf=tgam/common/FullStory.cfg&configFileLoc=tgam/config&vg=BigAdVariableGenerator&date=20020228&dateOffset=&hub=business&title=Business&cache_key=business¤t_row=4☆t_row=4#_rows=1Snippit:
Capital spending is set to post its first decline in nearly a decade this year, mainly because of lower outlays in the oil patch and the airline industry, Statistics Canada said yesterday in its annual survey of investment plans.

However, economist Adrienne Warren of Bank of Nova Scotia took a more cautious view. She said the continuing weakness of corporate profits -- which Statscan said yesterday fell 5.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2001 -- means that "planned capital outlays may eventually be tempered further."

When lower profits are combined with the excess capacity that many companies are carrying, soft commodity prices and thin order books, "the recovery in capital spending -- and in the overall economy -- may take longer than many anticipate," she said.

Waverider: Just reiterating BB's point from the Canuck perspective, eh... Cheers!

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